58 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: jiban shrestha, nepal agricultural research council, national plant breeding and genetics research centre, khumaltar, lalitpur, nepal; email: jibshrestha@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.506 received: 23 march 2022; accepted: 28 march 2022; published: 31 march 2022 citation: shrestha, j., 2022. drought stress in rice (oryza sativa l.). research on world agricultural economy. 3(1), 506. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.506 editorial drought stress in rice (oryza sativa l.) jiban shrestha* nepal agricultural research council, national plant breeding and genetics research centre, khumaltar, lalitpur, nepal drought is one of the most important limiting factors for agricultural productivity and has a negative impact on global food security. rice (oryza sativa l.) is one of the most important staple food crop in the world. most of improved rice varieties are vulnerable to drought stress. [1]. drought stress is a very important factor for plant growth [2-4]. drought at vegetative stage reduced rice yield by 2150.6%, at flowering stage by 42-83.7% and at reproductive stage by 51-90.6% [5]. drought conditions are caused by a combination of factors such as elevated temperatures, burning sunlight, and low relative humidity due to a lack of timely precipitation. plants suffered from a lack of soil moisture and can no longer extract nutrients and water from the soil. plant cells are killed due to external infiltration caused by higher ion concentrations in droughtaffected soil. in the presence of water stress, leaf area, cell size, and intercellular volume are reduced [6]. drought stress slows down the photosynthetic process. drought affects spikelet fertility and viable pollen production, pollen load, pollen shedding, germination and embryonic development. drought reduces grain yield. soil parameters that affect the growth and yield of rice, which grows primarily in lowlands affected by drought, need to be measured and analyzed. soil matric potential, hydraulic conductivity, bulk density, field capacity, and wilting points need to be measured for estimating water content of soil. when the matric potential of the soil is below zero, it reduces the water availability and water uptake by plants. avoidance or tolerance can reduce the harmful effects of drought on plants. drought tolerance refers to the ability of plants to provide high water potential and prevent dehydration despite the low water supply of the soil. dehydration tolerance refers to a plant’s ability to withstand minor water injury and internal water deficiencies. another option for dealing with the drought is to escape. this is where the plant completes its life cycle long before the onset of drought, crop length is changed such that critical stages like panicle emergence do not coincide with expected drought periods. proper and appropriate phenotyping plays an increasingly important role in the selection of droughttolerant genotypes. it is necessary to develop early-maturing to escape the drought and develop drought-tolerant varieties that perform better under drought stress [7]. drought stress mitigation measures for the rice crop include improving and incorporating traits such as a deep root system, leaf rolling, cuticle wax, stomata location, mailto:jibshrestha@gmail.com http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.506 59 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 and rapid recovery ability. watershed improvement, as well as increased moisture availability via water conservation and harvesting, is crucial components. drought forecasting and early guidance to farmers are critical drought mitigation methods that can help reduce the total cost of drought. conflict of interest there is no conflict of interest. references [1] dien, d.c., mochizuki, t., yamakawa, t., 2019. effect of various drought stresses and subsequent recovery on proline, total soluble sugar and starch metabolisms in rice (oryza sativa l.) varieties. plant production science. 22(4), 530-545. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/1343943x.2019.1647787 [2] anjum, f., yaseen, m., rasul, e., et al., 2003. water stress in barley (hordeum vulgare l.). i. effect on morphological characters. pakistan journal of agricultural sciences. 40, 43-44. [3] kusaka, m., ohta, m., fujimura, t., 2005. contribution of inorganic components to osmotic adjustment and leaf folding for drought tolerance in pearl millet. physiologia plantarum. 125, 474-489. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1399-3054.2005.00578.x [4] shao, h.b., chu, l.y., shao, m.a., et al., 2008. higher plant antioxidants and redox signaling under environmental stresses. comptes rendus biologies. 331, 433-441. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2008.03.011 [5] zhang, j., zhang, s., cheng, m., et al., 2018. effect of drought on agronomic traits of rice and wheat: a meta-analysis. international journal of environmental research and public health. 15(5), 839. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15050839 [6] kramer, p.j., 1969. plant and soil water relationship. tata mcgrawhill, bombey new delhi. pp. 360. [7] singh, c.m., kumar, b., mehandi, s., et al., 2012. effect of drought stress in rice: a review on morphological and physiological characteristics. trends in biosciences. 5(4), 261-265. https://doi.org/10.1080/1343943x.2019.1647787 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2008.03.011 9 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.483 copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: guoqing huang, research center on ecological sciences, jiangxi agricultural university, nanchang, jiangxi, 330045, china; email: hgqjxes@sina.com received: 12 january 2022; received in revised form: 15 february 2022; accepted: 18 february 2022; published: 4 march 2022 citation: hu, q.l., yang, b.j., li, n., et al., 2022. effects of mixed sowing of chinese milk vetch (astragalus sinicus l.) and rape on rice yield and soil physical and chemical properties. research on world agricultural economy. 3(1), 483. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.483 research article effects of mixed sowing of chinese milk vetch (astragalus sinicus l.) and rape on rice yield and soil physical and chemical properties qiliang hu binjuan yang na li ning liu shujiang guo guoqin huang* research center on ecological sciences, jiangxi agricultural university, nanchang, jiangxi, 330045, china abstract: in order to explore the effects of chinese milk vetch and rape mixed sowing on rice yield and soil fertility, and select the best planting mode, five different ratios of chinese milk vetch and rape mixed sowing were designed to study the effects of different ratios on rice yield, soil physicochemical properties and soil fertility in 0-10 cm, 1020 cm and 20-30 cm layers. grey correlation analysis of soil nutrient and yield was carried out by using grey system theory. the influence of different soil layers on soil chemical properties was greater than physical properties. the effect on shallow soil is greater than that on deep soil. mixed sowing of chinese milk vetch and rape improved soil comprehensive fertility in all soil layers, and rice yield was the highest in 2m2r treatment. ph value had the greatest effect on actual rice yield, followed by available potassium. therefore, mixed sowing of chinese milk vetch and rape could significantly increase the yield of early rice and soil nutrient content, and the pattern of “1/2 chinese milk vetch +1/2 rape-early rice-late rice” had the best effect. keywords: mixed sowing of chinese milk vetch and rape; rice yield; comprehensive fertility; grey correlation method 1. introduction the paddy field triple cropping system of planting green fertilizer in winter in double cropping rice field is a traditional planting mode in south china. as early as more than 3,000 years ago, china used green fertilizer to control weeds and cultivate land and fertilizer [1], and china has the largest planting area of green fertilizer in the world. chinese milk vetch is a biennial legume crop having symbiotic nitrogen fixing bacteria with its root can fix nitrogen in the air, and average nitrogen fixation is 75 120 kg•hm-2 in the peak flowering stage. however, due to the shortage of chinese milk vetch seed resources, high price, and the low c/n of chinese milk vetch, it is not beneficial to the accumulation of nitrogen and organic matter in soil, which restricts its promotion and application [2]. rape is the traditional cruciferous green fertilizer 10 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 in china, which has the advantages of wide range of adaptation, easy seed acquisition, low cost, high fertilizer efficiency, conducive to the accumulation of organic matter, and can activate phosphorus and potassium in the soil. root exudates can stimulate nitrogen-fixing bacteria. therefore, mixed sowing of chinese vetch and rape can make full use of light and heat resources in over ground and water and nutrient resources in underground part [3]. huang showed that, compared with the winter fallow treatment, the long-term return of chinese milk vetch and rape to the field as green fertilizer could increase rice yield, reduce yield variation coefficient and increase the sustainability index of rice yield [4]. gao [5] showed that returning green fertilizer to the field can promote rice yield, improve soil organic matter content and maintain soil nitrogen supply, which is a tillage system to maintain high and stable yield and sustainable development of rice. deng [6] showed that winter rapeseed had obvious effects on improving soil physical and chemical properties, reducing soil bulk density, and increasing soil available potassium and organic matter contents, and the subsequent rice production increased significantly. there are many studies on the effects of single sowing of green fertilizer on rice yield and soil physicochemical properties, but there are few studies and comprehensive analysis on the effects of different mixed sowing ratios of chinese milk vetch and rape on subsequent crops and soil. therefore, in this paper, the actual rice yield and the comprehensive fertility index (ifi) of different soil layers under the mixed sowing of chinese milk vetch and rape were studied, and the main soil chemical properties affecting the rice yield were analyzed by using the grey relational system theory, providing a scientific theoretical basis for the mixed sowing of green fertilizer technology in double cropping rice field. 2. materials and methods 2.1 experimental site overview the experiment was conducted from september 2017 to present in the rice experimental field (28° 46’n, 115° 55’e) in the science park of jiangxi agricultural university. the experimental site belongs to the subtropical monsoon humid climate, with the annual total solar radiation of 4.79×1013 j•hm-2, the annual sunshine duration of 1852 h, the annual effective accumulated temperature ≥0 ˚c of 6450 ˚c, the annual precipitation of 1665.7 mm, and the annual average temperature between 17.1 ˚c and 17.8 ˚c. the soil used in the experiment is red clay developed in the quaternary, which is a typical subtropical red soil distribution area. at the beginning of the experiment, the content of organic matter was 34.93 g•kg-1, total nitrogen was 2.00 mg•kg-1, available phosphorus was 15.58 mg•kg-1, available potassium was 41.73 mg•kg-1 and ph was 4.98. 2.2 experimental design the experiment consisted of five treatments: (1) m (ck1), single seeding of chinese milk vetch early ricelate rice; (2) treatment 3m1r, 3/4 chinese milk vetch+1/4 rape-early rice-late rice; (3) treatment 2m2r, 1/2 chinese milk vetch + 1/2 rape-early rice-late rice; (4) treatment 1m3r, 1/4 chinese milk vetch + 3/4 rape-early rice-late rice; (5) treatment r (ck2), single sowing rape early rice-late rice. the sowing amount was 22.5 kg•hm-2 for chinese milk vetch and 7.5 kg•hm-2 for rape. each treatment was repeated for 3 times, with a total of 15 plots with an area of 16.5 m2 (5.5 m×3 m). the plots were separated by cement ridges 30 cm high. before the experiment, soil fertility in each plot was uniform. both sides are provided with a protection line, the width of the protection line is 30 cm. 2.3 sample collection and determination 2.3.1 rice yield measurement at the late rice maturity stage, 50 stump were surveyed in each plot as the basis for effective panicle calculation, and 3 stump of representative rice plants were randomly selected in each plot by average method, and then used as seed test materials after natural air drying. the mass of 1000 grains was measured with 1/1000 analytical balance; each single cell as the actual yield. 2.3.2 soil nutrient determination one day after rice harvesting, each plot was divided into 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm and 20-30 cm layers according to the “5-point sampling method”, and the tillage layer soil was evenly mixed, air-dried naturally, impurities removed and sieving, and soil nutrients were measured: soil ph was measured by ph meter; the content of organic matter was determined by external heating method of potassium dichromate and concentrated sulfuric acid; the total nitrogen content was determined by semi micro open nitrogen determination method; the content of available phosphorus was determined by nahco3 extraction and molybdenum-antimony resistance colorimetry; the content of available potassium was extracted by nh4oac and flame photometry [7]. 2.4 data calculatio soil integrated fertility index (ifi): nemerow index method [8] was used to evaluate the soil fertility quality un11 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 der each treatment. in this paper, soil ph, organic matter, total nitrogen, available phosphorus and available potassium were selected as fertility indexes to calculate fertility coefficient, and the modified nemerow formula was used to calculate soil comprehensive fertility index. (1) calculation of fertility index ifii: 2.4 data calculatio soil integrated fertility index (ifi): nemerow index method [8] was used to evaluate the soil fertility quality under each treatment. in this paper, soil ph, organic matter, total nitrogen, available phosphorus and available potassium were selected as fertility indexes to calculate fertility coefficient, and the modified nemerow formula was used to calculate soil comprehensive fertility index. (1) calculation of fertility index ifii: ifii x xa x ≤ xa 1 + x − xa xc − xa xa < 푋 ≤ 푋푐 2 + x − xc xp − xc xc < 푋 ≤ 푋푝 3 x > 푋푝 where, ifii: fertility coefficient, x: measured value of this attribute; xa and xp grading standards lower and upper limit, xc: between the upper and lower limits of grading standards (table 1). table 1. standard values of soil attribute classification classificati on ph organic matte (g·kg-1) total nitrogen (g·kg-1) available phosphorus (mg·kg-1) available potassium (mg·kg-1) xa 4.5 20 1 10 100 xc 6.5 30 1.5 20 150 xp 8.5 40 2 40 200 (2) calculation of comprehensive soil fertility index ifi: ifi = （ifii average） 2 + （ifii min） 2 2 + n − 1 n where, ifii average and ifii minimum are the mean and minimum values of soil fertility of each attribute; n is the number of evaluation indicators. grey correlation degree calculation of soil nutrients. different soil nutrient indexes were represented by x, different plots were represented by k, and the actual rice yield was taken as the reference series x0. based on the grey relational system theory, the range normalization method is used to standardize the data [9,10]. the specific calculation formula is as follows: correlation formula: i k =minmin 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 +휌푚푎푥푚푎푥 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 −휌푚푎푥푚푎푥 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 equal weight correlation: ri = 1 n k=1 n εi k∑ type: minmin|xo(k)-xi(k)| for the secondary minimum differential, maxmax|xo(k)-xi(k)| for maximum differential secondary, is distinguish coefficient, the value range is 0 to 1, the n number of samples. 2.5 data analysis where, ifii: fertility coefficient, x: measured value of this attribute; xa and xp grading standards lower and upper limit, xc: between the upper and lower limits of grading standards (table 1). table 1. standard values of soil attribute classification classification ph organic matte (g·kg-1) total nitrogen (g·kg-1) available phosphorus (mg·kg-1) available potassium (mg·kg-1) xa 4.5 20 1 10 100 xc 6.5 30 1.5 20 150 xp 8.5 40 2 40 200 (2) calculation of comprehensive soil fertility index ifi: 2.4 data calculatio soil integrated fertility index (ifi): nemerow index method [8] was used to evaluate the soil fertility quality under each treatment. in this paper, soil ph, organic matter, total nitrogen, available phosphorus and available potassium were selected as fertility indexes to calculate fertility coefficient, and the modified nemerow formula was used to calculate soil comprehensive fertility index. (1) calculation of fertility index ifii: ifii x xa x ≤ xa 1 + x − xa xc − xa xa < 푋 ≤ 푋푐 2 + x − xc xp − xc xc < 푋 ≤ 푋푝 3 x > 푋푝 where, ifii: fertility coefficient, x: measured value of this attribute; xa and xp grading standards lower and upper limit, xc: between the upper and lower limits of grading standards (table 1). table 1. standard values of soil attribute classification classificati on ph organic matte (g·kg-1) total nitrogen (g·kg-1) available phosphorus (mg·kg-1) available potassium (mg·kg-1) xa 4.5 20 1 10 100 xc 6.5 30 1.5 20 150 xp 8.5 40 2 40 200 (2) calculation of comprehensive soil fertility index ifi: ifi = （ifii average） 2 + （ifii min） 2 2 + n − 1 n where, ifii average and ifii minimum are the mean and minimum values of soil fertility of each attribute; n is the number of evaluation indicators. grey correlation degree calculation of soil nutrients. different soil nutrient indexes were represented by x, different plots were represented by k, and the actual rice yield was taken as the reference series x0. based on the grey relational system theory, the range normalization method is used to standardize the data [9,10]. the specific calculation formula is as follows: correlation formula: i k =minmin 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 +휌푚푎푥푚푎푥 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 −휌푚푎푥푚푎푥 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 equal weight correlation: ri = 1 n k=1 n εi k∑ type: minmin|xo(k)-xi(k)| for the secondary minimum differential, maxmax|xo(k)-xi(k)| for maximum differential secondary, is distinguish coefficient, the value range is 0 to 1, the n number of samples. 2.5 data analysis where, ifii average and ifii minimum are the mean and minimum values of soil fertility of each attribute; n is the number of evaluation indicators. grey correlation degree calculation of soil nutrients. different soil nutrient indexes were represented by x, different plots were represented by k, and the actual rice yield was taken as the reference series x0. based on the grey relational system theory, the range normalization method is used to standardize the data [9,10]. the specific calculation formula is as follows: correlation formula: 2.4 data calculatio soil integrated fertility index (ifi): nemerow index method [8] was used to evaluate the soil fertility quality under each treatment. in this paper, soil ph, organic matter, total nitrogen, available phosphorus and available potassium were selected as fertility indexes to calculate fertility coefficient, and the modified nemerow formula was used to calculate soil comprehensive fertility index. (1) calculation of fertility index ifii: ifii x xa x ≤ xa 1 + x − xa xc − xa xa < 푋 ≤ 푋푐 2 + x − xc xp − xc xc < 푋 ≤ 푋푝 3 x > 푋푝 where, ifii: fertility coefficient, x: measured value of this attribute; xa and xp grading standards lower and upper limit, xc: between the upper and lower limits of grading standards (table 1). table 1. standard values of soil attribute classification classificati on ph organic matte (g·kg-1) total nitrogen (g·kg-1) available phosphorus (mg·kg-1) available potassium (mg·kg-1) xa 4.5 20 1 10 100 xc 6.5 30 1.5 20 150 xp 8.5 40 2 40 200 (2) calculation of comprehensive soil fertility index ifi: ifi = （ifii average） 2 + （ifii min） 2 2 + n − 1 n where, ifii average and ifii minimum are the mean and minimum values of soil fertility of each attribute; n is the number of evaluation indicators. grey correlation degree calculation of soil nutrients. different soil nutrient indexes were represented by x, different plots were represented by k, and the actual rice yield was taken as the reference series x0. based on the grey relational system theory, the range normalization method is used to standardize the data [9,10]. the specific calculation formula is as follows: correlation formula: i k =minmin 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 +휌푚푎푥푚푎푥 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 −휌푚푎푥푚푎푥 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 equal weight correlation: ri = 1 n k=1 n εi k∑ type: minmin|xo(k)-xi(k)| for the secondary minimum differential, maxmax|xo(k)-xi(k)| for maximum differential secondary, is distinguish coefficient, the value range is 0 to 1, the n number of samples. 2.5 data analysis equal weight correlation: 2.4 data calculatio soil integrated fertility index (ifi): nemerow index method [8] was used to evaluate the soil fertility quality under each treatment. in this paper, soil ph, organic matter, total nitrogen, available phosphorus and available potassium were selected as fertility indexes to calculate fertility coefficient, and the modified nemerow formula was used to calculate soil comprehensive fertility index. (1) calculation of fertility index ifii: ifii x xa x ≤ xa 1 + x − xa xc − xa xa < 푋 ≤ 푋푐 2 + x − xc xp − xc xc < 푋 ≤ 푋푝 3 x > 푋푝 where, ifii: fertility coefficient, x: measured value of this attribute; xa and xp grading standards lower and upper limit, xc: between the upper and lower limits of grading standards (table 1). table 1. standard values of soil attribute classification classificati on ph organic matte (g·kg-1) total nitrogen (g·kg-1) available phosphorus (mg·kg-1) available potassium (mg·kg-1) xa 4.5 20 1 10 100 xc 6.5 30 1.5 20 150 xp 8.5 40 2 40 200 (2) calculation of comprehensive soil fertility index ifi: ifi = （ifii average） 2 + （ifii min） 2 2 + n − 1 n where, ifii average and ifii minimum are the mean and minimum values of soil fertility of each attribute; n is the number of evaluation indicators. grey correlation degree calculation of soil nutrients. different soil nutrient indexes were represented by x, different plots were represented by k, and the actual rice yield was taken as the reference series x0. based on the grey relational system theory, the range normalization method is used to standardize the data [9,10]. the specific calculation formula is as follows: correlation formula: i k =minmin 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 +휌푚푎푥푚푎푥 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 −휌푚푎푥푚푎푥 푥표 푘 −푥푖 푘 equal weight correlation: ri = 1 n k=1 n εi k∑ type: minmin|xo(k)-xi(k)| for the secondary minimum differential, maxmax|xo(k)-xi(k)| for maximum differential secondary, is distinguish coefficient, the value range is 0 to 1, the n number of samples. 2.5 data analysis type: minmin|xo(k)-xi(k)| for the secondary minimum differential, maxmax|xo(k)-xi(k)| for maximum differential secondary, is distinguish coefficient, the value range is 0 to 1, the n number of samples. 2.5 data analysis e x c e l 2 0 1 9 w a s u s e d f o r s t a t i s t i c a l p r o c e s s i n g , spss20.0 was used for one-way analysis of variance, and origin 2018 was used for icon making. 3. results 3.1 effects of different mixing ratios of chinese milk vetch and rape on rice yield as can be seen from table 2, the effects of different treatments on effective panicle number, 1000-grain weight and actual yield of rice under different proportions of chinese milk vetch and rape were significant. there was no significant difference in grain number per panicle and seed setting rate among all treatments. in terms of effective panicle number, 1000-grain weight and actual yield, treatment 2m2r had the best performance, and the effective panicle number of treatment 2m2r was significantly different from that of two monocultures (p<0.05), which was 15.18-16.18% higher than that of two monocultures. the 1000-grain weight of treatment 2m2r was significantly higher than that of treatment r by 8.40% (p<0.05). treatment 2m2r (9073.11 kg•hm-2) was significantly higher than that of treatment r (7594.76 kg•hm-2) by 19.47% (p<0.05). therefore, mixed sowing of chinese milk vetch and rape could significantly increase rice yield compared with monoculture treatment. table 2. effects of mixed sowing chinese milk vetch and rape on rice yield and its components planting season treatment effective panicle number/ (×104·hm-2) grain number per spike seed setting rate/% 1000 grain weight/g actural production/ (kg·hm-2) late rice m(ck1) 212.31±8.96b 206.43±13.20a 71.85%±2.37a 23.49±0.57ab 7941.89±541.39ab 3m1r 232.93±8.08ab 203.12±8.98a 74.34%±1.89a 24.24±0.50ab 8376.47±366.71ab 2m2r 244.54±9.49a 209.65±12.61a 76.24%±2.72a 25.04±0.47a 9073.11±375.37a 1m3r 225.35±7.93ab 208.14±7.38a 74.29%±2.01a 23.34±0.46b 8209.09±249.75ab r(ck2) 210.49±6.86b 214.39±7.55a 73.87%±2.78a 23.10±0.37b 7594.76±173.14b note: data are mean of 3 replicates ± standard error; different letters in the same column indicate a significant difference of 5%. 12 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 3.2 effects of different mixing ratios of chinese milk vetch and rape on soil physical properties as shown in figure 1, at the late rice maturity stage in 2020, the water content and bulk density of each treatment in different soil layers were significantly different, but the difference between each treatment in the same soil layer was not significant. with the deepening of soil layer, soil moisture content decreased and bulk density increased. in 0-30 cm tilled soil, soil physical properties changed faster with the deepening of soil layer. there were significant differences in 0-10 cm soil layer. there was no significant difference in bulk density between the treatments in 10-20 cm and 20-30 cm soil layers, but there was a significant difference between control r and other treatments in the depth of 10-20 cm soil layer (p<0.05). 3.3 effects of different mixing ratios of chinese milk vetch and rape on soil chemical properties figure 1. effects of mixed sowing of chinese milk vetch and rape on water content and bulk density in different soil layers table 3. effects of mixed sowing of chinese milk vetch and rape on soil nutrients and fertility depth treatment ph organic matter (g·kg-1) total nitrogen (g·kg-1) available phosphorus (mg·kg-1) available potassium (mg·kg-1) 0-10 cm m(ck1) 4.55±0.03c 31.98±0.33a 2.02±0.02a 16.26±1.32abcd 61.00±10.58abc 3m1r 4.54±0.07c 33.29±0.15a 2.13±0.02a 18.72±1.94ab 69.67±5.24a 2m2r 4.56±0.04c 33.04±0.38a 2.16±0.01a 19.54±1.13a 73.33±2.40ab 1m3r 4.52±0.03c 31.58±0.83a 2.04±0.05a 17.33±2.97abc 64.00±3.61abc r(ck2) 4.51±0.04c 31.71±0.36a 2.05±0.01a 16.88±0.93abc 62.67±1.20ab 10-20 cm m(ck1) 4.69±0.05b 21.98±1.30b 1.45±0.09b 14.13±3.12abcde 47.33±1.20b 3m1r 4.73±0.06b 24.35±1.24b 1.61±0.11b 12.07±3.07abcde 46.67±3.71b 2m2r 4.73±0.03b 22.61±1.47b 1.61±0.23b 13.08±3.20abcde 50.00±10.00b 1m3r 4.73±0.04b 23.74±0.28b 1.58±0.04b 11.90±0.99bcde 51.00±7.55b r(ck2) 4.77±0.05b 22.42±2.20b 1.47±0.13b 13.47±1.11abcd 58.67±7.80bc 20-30 cm m(ck1) 5.59±0.04a 13.60±1.36c 0.95±0.08c 7.72±0.22e 49.67±4.33b 3m1r 5.55±0.02a 16.49±1.06c 0.91±0.10c 9.30±1.65de 46.00±4.36b 2m2r 5.57±0.02a 16.02±1.54c 0.82±0.11c 9.74±2.44de 51.00±1.73b 1m3r 5.52±0.02a 16.63±0.76c 0.90±0.02c 11.85±2.32bcde 47.00±5.29b r(ck2) 5.55±0.02a 13.99±0.96c 0.77±0.04c 10.40±1.48cde 46.67±2.40b 13 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 3 . 4 e f f e c t s o f m i x e d s o w i n g o f d i f f e r e n t proportions of chinese milk vetch and rape on soil chemical properties figure 2 shows the comprehensive soil fertility index (ifi) at the late rice maturity stage in 2020. as shown in figure 2, there were significant differences in soil fertility among different soil layers under different treatments (p<0.05), but no significant differences among different treatments in the same soil layer (p>0.05). in 0-10 cm layer, 2m2r was the highest and m was the lowest. in 1020 cm layer, treatment 3m1r was the highest and treatment m was the lowest. at 20-30 cm, treatment 1m3r was the highest, and treatment m and r were the lowest. in general, mixed sowing of chinese milk vetch and rape had a great effect on the comprehensive index of shallow soil fertility, and the ifi index of mixed sowing was higher than that of single sowing. figure 2. comprehensive soil fertility index under different treatments 3.5 grey correlation analysis of rice yield and soil fertility under different mixed-planting ratios according to the requirements of grey system theory, the grey correlation degree between soil nutrient indexes and actual rice yield was analyzed, and ρ was 0.5. the higher the score of the equal-weight correlation coefficient, the greater the correlation between the index and the actual rice yield. it can be seen from figure 3 that the correlation degree of all indexes on yield is as follows: ph (0.7332) > available potassium (0.6957) > organic matter (0.6785) > total nitrogen (0.6562) > available phosphorus (0.6561). gray correlation analysis of soil nutrients and rice yield can explore the relationship between rice yield and soil nutrients, and help clarify the nutrient factors affecting rice yield. in this test field, ph is the biggest factor affecting rice yield, followed by available potassium. increasing soil ph and applying potassium fertilizer can greatly improve rice yield. figure 3. equal-weight correlation degree and ranking of soil nutrient indexes 4. discussion 4.1 effects of different mixing ratio on rice yield by turning green fertilizer into soil, organic fertilizer is formed and released into paddy soil, which not only improves the utilization rate of fertilizer, but also ensures the need for fertilizer at all stages of rice growth and improves rice yield [11]. increased application of organic materials can significantly improve crop yield [12]. zeng [13] showed that the effective panicle number, solid grain number and 1000-grain weight of rice under milk vetch mulching were increased, and the number of grains per panicle and seed setting rate of rice under rape straw returning were increased [14]. the results of this study showed that the effective panicle number of 2m2r was 15.18-16.18% higher that of monoculture, and the actual rice yield was 14.24-19.47% higher than that of monoculture. green fertilizer returning could increase rice yield by improving the effective panicle number, which was consistent with the research results of li ping [15]. 4.2 effects of different mixing ratio on soil physical and chemical properties winter planting of green manure in double cropping rice fields not only improves surface water content, enhances soil permeability, and achieves the effect of conserving soil moisture, but also reduces soil bulk density and optimizes soil structure by turning and returning green manure to the field [16]. the results of this study showed that the effect of chinese milk vetch monoculture and mixed sowing of chinese milk vetch and rape on soil bulk 14 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 density reduction was better than that of rape monoculture. returning green manure to the field as organic matter can increase rich nutrients for the soil and transform insoluble nutrients in the soil [17]. huang [18] showed that the mixed sowing of chinese milk vetch and rape could increase the contents of soil organic matter, insoluble nutrient transformation, available phosphorus and available potassium. the results of this study showed that under the green fertilizer and double cropping rice planting mode, the mixed sowing treatments of chinese milk vetch and rape improved the soil nutrients in different layers, and each treatment had a great impact on the soil nutrients in 0-10 cm layer, in which the available phosphorus and available potassium were the most obvious. the available phosphorus content in treatment 2m2r was the highest, and the available potassium content in treatment 3m1r was the highest. in 0-30 cm soil layer, there were significant differences in comprehensive soil fertility of each layer, indicating that soil depth was closely related to soil fertility. mixed green manure increased the soil comprehensive fertility index (ifi) the most, which might be because chinese milk vetch was a leguminous crop and atmospheric nitrogen during its growth. rape has the function of activating insoluble nutrients, and the biomass of mixed sowing treatment is larger, green manure rot explains the release of a large amount of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, so improve the comprehensive soil fertility. there was no obvious difference among all treatments, which may be due to the lack of test years. the specific content of soil nutrients increased by mixed sowing of different proportions of chinese vetch rape needs to be verified by long-term positioning test. soil fertility reflects the degree of soil fertility, which is the basis of productivity [19,20]. the results of this study showed that different soil nutrients had different effects on rice yield, and the most important factor affecting rice yield was ph, followed by available potassium. therefore, selecting a suitable mixture ratio of chinese milk vetch and rape can increase rice yield. 5. conclusions in conclusion, the mixed planting pattern of chinese milk veg and rape can better improve shallow soil fertility and increase rice yield and components. in this experiment, 11.25 kg•hm-2 chinese milk vetch +3.75 kg•hm-2 rape-early-rice-late rice had the best effect, which was a new green fertilizer planting mode and crop rotation mode in south china, and had a very good application prospect. funding this research was funded by the national research foundation of china (4166107); national key research and development program of china (2016yfd0300208); key disciplines (construction) of ecology in the 13th fivey ear plan of jiangxi agricultural university. conflict of interest the authors declare no conflict of interest. references [1] li, z., lian, x., wang, w., et al., 2013. research progress of green fertilizer in china. pratacultural science. 30(7), 1135-1140. [2] jiang, m., li, y., jiang, j., et al., 2020. effects of different sowing dates and ratios on biomass and nutrient accumulation of green fertilizer in mixed sowing of rapeseed and chinese milk vetch. shanghai agricultural science and technology. 2, 13-15. [3] zhou, k., xing, j., bo, y., et al., 2005. physiological and ecological effects of mixed cropping system between rapeseed and chinese milk vetch. chinese journal of applied ecology. 16(8), 1477-1481. [4] huang, j., liu, s., zhang, h., et al., 2016. response of rice yield to double cropping rice-different winter green fertilizer rotation and environment. ecology and environmental sciences. 25(8), 1271-1276. [5] gao, j., huang, j., yang, z., et al., 2020. plant nutrition and fertilizer science. 26(3), 472-480. (in chinese) [6] deng, l., li, m., fan, l., et al., 2018. effect of green fertilizer rape on soil fertility and rice yield. hunan agricultural sciences. (2), 18-20. [7] nanjing agricultural college, 1980. soil agrochemical analysis. beijing: agriculture press. [8] zhou, j., zhang, h., yang, j., et al., 2020. effects of continuous application of soil improver on soil fertility and active organic carbon components in sandy fluvial soil. scientia agricultura sinica. 53(16), 3307-3318. [9] zhang, p., zhong, c., zhou, q., et al., 2019. chinese journal of eco-agriculture. 27(8), 1163-1171. (in chinese with english abstract) [10] feng, l., wang, s., yang, w., et al., 2020. effects of maize and soybean intercropping patterns on agronomic traits and yield of soybean in red soil dryland. soybean science. 39(6), 882-890. [11] wang, q., bo, y., yu, k., et al., 2021. effects of green fertilizer on rice ecosystem and its prospects. soils. 53(2), 243-249. 15 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 [12] li, z., liu, m., wu, x., et al., 2010. effects of longterm chemical fertilization and organic amendments on dynamics of soil organic cand total n in soil and tillage research. 106(2), 268−274. (in chinese) [13] zeng, q., gong, c., xu, y., et al., 2009. effects of inverting pressure on yield and output value of rice. hunan agricultural sciences. 6, 76-77+88. [14] he, r., xue, z., wang, y., et al., 2021. analysis of economic and environmental benefits of returning rape straw to field and combining fertilizer application on rice. 42(6), 42-49. [15] li, p., yang, b., zhang, p., et al., 2020. effects of mixed sowing of chinese milk vex and rape on yield, plant dry matter and nitrogen uptake and utilization of double cropping rice. journal of jiangxi agricultural university. 42(2), 219-228. [16] zhao, r., wang, y., su, g., et al., 2020. effects of green fertilizer on soil chemical properties and fertilizer utilization rate. journal of tianjin agricultural college. 27(1), 92-97. [17] huang, g., 2008. study on farmland cycle production technology in jiangnan hilly region i. development of green fertilizer production in jiangxi. tillage and cultivation. 2, 1-2 +12. [18] huang, j., liao, y., lu, y., et al., 2021. effects of mixed sowing of chinese milk vex and rape on green fertilizer and early rice yield. hunan agricultural sciences. (6), 34-37+48. [19] cai, z., 2020. discussion on the development strategy of soil fertility and soil nutrient cycle in the 14th five-year plan. acta pedologica sinica. 57(5), 11281136. [20] zhang, w., wang, s., liu, b., et al., 2021. effects of fertilizer and organic fertilizer application on soil fertility improvement in red paddy field based on soil fertility quality comprehensive index. plant nutrition and fertilizer science. 27(5), 777-790. 24 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: guoqin huang, research center on ecological sciences, jiangxi agricultural university, nanchang, jiangxi, 330045, china; email: hgqjxes@sina.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.484 received: 12 january 2022; received in revised form: 22 march 2022; accepted: 28 march 2022; published: 31 march 2022 citation: liu, z.q., zhou, q., ouyang, f.z., et al., 2022. border-rows effect of rape (brassica napus l.) intercropping with milk vetch (astragalus sinicus l.). research on world agricultural economy. 3(1), 484. http:// dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.484 research article border-rows effect of rape (brassica napus l.) intercropping with milk vetch (astragalus sinicus l.) zeqin liu1 quan zhou1 fengzai ouyang2 yiqiang liu1 gaojie su1 xuehao wang1 zhijie hou1 tengqi wang1 yajun wang1 guoqin huang1* 1. research center on ecological sciences, jiangxi agricultural university, nanchang, jiangxi, 330045, china 2. ji’an institute of agricultural science, ji’an, jiangxi, 343119, china abstract: border-rows effect is an important research content of intercropping system. milk vetch-rape intercropping is one of the typical intercropping patterns in southern china. however, research on the border-rows effect is very little, which has affected the application and popularization of the milk vetch-rape intercropping system. in this study, two field experiments were conducted from 2018 to 2020. the effects of monoculture, intercropping and different border-rows on agronomic traits and yield of rape were studied. the results showed that milk vetch had a significant effect on the first border-row of rape. the first border-row of rape diameter of root and secondary effective branch number is significantly higher than second and third border-row, and the rape yield per plant in the first border-row of intercropping milk vetch was 135%, 328%, 257% and 147% higher than that in the second, third, fourth and fifth border-rows respectively. the intercropping with milk vetch enhanced the number of pods per plant in first border-row by increasing the agronomic traits of rape, such as plant height, stem diameter, primary effective branch number and secondary effective branch number. in conclusion, intercropping milk vetch significantly improved the agronomic traits of the first and second border-rows rape, increased the yield of rape. so it is recommended that milk vetch intercropping with two rows rape, which has important guiding significance for the application and promotion of milk vetch-rape intercropping in the future. keywords: border-rows effect; intercropping; milk vetch; rape 1. introduction crop diversification appears to be a critical element to sustain agroecosystems. intercropping is widely practiced as a mean of increasing productivity and to minimize the risk of total crop failure [1]. compared with monoculture, reasonable intercropping system can improve agronomic traits and yield of crops. the ecological basis of intercropping advantage has two main aspects: the full utilization of light and heat resources in the overground and the full utilization of water and nutrient resources in the underground [2]. the yield advantage usually comes from the border-row advantage effect of intercropping system. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.484 25 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 study by qi et al. [3] on wheat-corn intercropping system found that the edge effects at the first side row were 13.7%, 18.2%, 29.0%, 33.7% higher than the second side row, in sole cropping system, wheat corn intercropping system without root separation, wheat-corn intercropping with root separated by plastic film, wheat-corn intercropping with root separated by nylon, respectively, and the edge effects in the fist side row were 22.5%, 33.9%, 19.4%, 29.8% higher than the third side row in the four treatments respectively. when jujube intercropped cotton, the plant height and leaf area index of side two row cotton increased by 27.44% and 20.73%, respectively, compared with sole cropping [4]. therefore, exploring the size of the border-row advantage effect of intercropping system can better develop and utilize it, which is of great significance to establish a reasonable intercropping system and ensure the maximum benefit of intercropping [5]. there are various systems of intercropping, such as cereal-bean, cereal-potato, grain-cotton, grain (cotton)vegetable, etc. among them, milk vetch-rape intercropping is one of the typical intercropping systems in southern china, which have been reported since the 1950s [6-8]. milk vetch is the main green fertilizer crop in south china, which can improve soil fertility and soil structure [9]. rape is one of the important oil crops in china, and the intercropping of milk vetch and rape can not only improve the production efficiency of rape, increase organic fertilizer source, improve soil fertility, but also has good physiological and ecological effects [10-12]. recent studies found that intercropping milk vetch could not only change the soil microbial characteristics of rape rhizosphere, thereby affecting its soil respiration [13,14], but also reduce the accumulation of cadmium (cd) and lead (pb) in rape, reduce the harm of heavy metals to human beings [15]. however, there is still a lack of research on the border-rows effect of milk vetch-rape intercropping, which seriously hinders the development and application of milk vetch-rape intercropping system. this study aims to reveal the influence to yield and agronomic traits of different border-rows of rape, determine the intercropping effect size of every border-row of rape, provide data support to put forward appropriate field configuration mode of milk vetch-rape intercropping, then could provide theoretical basis for the optimization and application promotion of milk vetchrape intercropping system. 2. materials and methods 2.1 site description the experiment was conducted in jiangxi agricultural university science and technology park in nanchang, jiangxi province, china (28°46′ n, 115°55′ e) from october 2018 to may 2020. the experimental soil type is the typical red soil in south china, the average annual sunshine duration is 1559.9 h, the average annual total sunshine radiation is 102.55 kj·cm–2, the frost-free period is about 269 days, the average annual rainfall is 1658.9 mm, the average annual temperature is 16.5 °c, and the active accumulated temperature ≥10 °c is 5521 °c. the test site is low hill without irrigation condition. the initial soil properties were: ph value was 4.75, organic matter was 23.20 g·kg–1, total nitrogen was 1.29 g·kg–1, total phosphorus was 0.92 g·kg–1 and total potassium was 11.10 g·kg–1. 2.2 experimental design experiment 1: from october 2018 to may 2019, the field experiment was conducted with three treatments (planting methods): (1) monoculture: monoculture rape, plant spacing 30 cm, row spacing 40 cm (there were 11 rows in each plot and 10 plants in each row); (2) intercropping: rape planting specifications are the same as monoculture, and milk vetch is sown between rape rows, the amount of milk vetch per strip was 4.5 g; (3) milk vetch-rape intercropping (the planting ratio is 1:5): milk vetch is sown on both sides of the middle five-row rape (taking the middle five-row rape and milk vetchas the main research object), intercropping rape is divided into first, second and third border-rows), and the amount of milk vetch per strip was 4.5 g (figure 1). a random block design was used in the experiment, with 3 replicates. there were 9 plots with length of 5.0 m, width of 3.0 m. each plot was applied with 1.588 kg nitrogen (180 kg·hm –2), 1.588 kg phosphate (180 kg·hm –2), 1.588 kg potassium (180 kg·hm–2). the fertilizer used is stanley 17-17-17 compound fertilizer. all fertilizers are applied once before sowing. experiment 2: from october 2019 to may 2020, a field experiment was carried out to set up an intercropping system of milk vetch and rape. the plot area was 3.0 m×5.0 m, and the rape was planted within the range of 2.0 m×3.0 m in the middle of each plot. the rape was planted by isometric cave seeding with plant spacing of 20 cm and row spacing of 20 cm. milk vetch was planted within a range of 1.5 m×3.0 m on both sides of the plot, and the seeding amount on each side was 20 g. in this planting method, rape was divided into first, second, third, fourth and fifth border-rows (figure 2). fertilization and other field management are same as experiment 1. test varieties: milk vetch variety was “yujiang daye”, rape variety of experiment 1 was “94005 ”(strain), and rape variety of experiment 2 was “yangguang 131”. 26 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 2.3 measurement index and method experiment 1: in the rape pod period, the plant height, height of branch point, main inflorescence length of rape were measured by measuring tape, diameter of root was measured by vernier caliper, primary effective branch number and secondary effective branch number were directly counted. three plants were measured in each plot in monocropping and intercropping, and three plants were measured in each side row in 1-to-5 intercropping of milk vetch rape. experiment 2: in the rape pod period, the plant height, diameter of root, sessile leaf number, height of branch point, primary effective branch number and secondary effective branch number and number of pods per plant of rape were measured, the measurement method is the same as experiment 1. measure three plants on each side row. the yield per plant in experiment 1 and experiment 2 was measured at the harvest stage. 2.4 statistical analysis micorsoft excel 2010 and spss 17.0 software were used for data collation and analysis. general linear model was used for univariate and one-way anova. duncan’s method was used for multiple comparison. 3. results and analysis 3.1 effects of different planting patterns on agronomic characters and yield of rape different planting patterns have a significant impact on rape agronomic traits (figure 3). the plant height and secondary effective branch number of rape in intercropping were significantly higher than those in monoculture. for different intercropping border-row, while first and second border-row of rape better agronomic characters, especially in the first border-row. the first border-row of rape plant height and secondary branch number is significantly figure 1. schematic diagram of experiment design (test 1) figure 2. schematic diagram of experiment design (test 2) 27 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 figure 3. effects of different planting patterns on agronomic traits of rape (test 1) values followed by different letters are significantly different at p<0.05. monoculture: monoculture rape; intercropping: milk vetch is sown between rape rows; first, second and third border-rows: milk vetch-rape intercropping with the planting ratio is 1:5. different planting patterns also have a great impact on rape yield (figure 4). the figure 3. effects of different planting patterns on agronomic traits of rape (test 1) values followed by different letters are significantly different at p<0.05. monoculture: monoculture rape; intercropping: milk vetch is sown between rape rows; first, second and third border-rows: milk vetch-rape intercropping with the planting ratio is 1:5. 28 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 higher than monoculture, and the diameter of root significantly superior to second border-row, secondary effective branch number is significantly higher than second and third border-row. the results showed that intercropping could improve the agronomic traits of rape, especially in the first border-row. different planting patterns also have a great impact on rape yield (figure 4). the rape yield per plant of intercropping, first, second, third border-rows of rape was decreased in gradient order, and the rape yield per plant of third border-rows was equivalent to monoculture. the rape yield per plant of intercropping was significantly higher than that of monoculture and third border-rows, and the rape yield per plant of first border-row was significantly higher than that of third border-rows. specifically, the rape yield per plant in intercropping was 119% higher than monoculture, and the rape yield per plant in first border-row was 52% and 119% higher than second and third border-rows. in conclusion, intercropping milk vetch significantly increased rape yield, and the yield effect of intercropping first border-row was more obvious, the second border-rows was second. bc a ab abc c 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 mo no cu ltu re int erc rop pin g fir st bo rde r-r ow sec on d b ord errow thi rd bo rde r-r ow y ie ld p er p la nt （ g） treatment figure 4. effects of different planting patterns on yield of rape (test 1) values followed by different letters are significantly different at p<0.05. 3.2 effects of intercropping milk vetch on agronomic characters and yield of rape intercropping milk vetch has a great influence on the agronomic traits of different border-rows of rape (figure 5). in addition to the height of branch point, other agronomic traits of rape were at a high level. the diameter of root, sessile leaf number, secondary effective branch number and number of pods per plant of first border-row were significantly higher than other border-rows, while the height of branch point was the opposite. it was found that all the agronomic traits were at the same level except for first border-row. in conclusion, the effects of intercropping on the agronomic traits of rape were mainly reflected in first border-row, which significantly improved the growth of first border-row of rape, but had no significant effects on other border-rows. intercropping milk vetch has different effects on the yield of rape in different border-rows, and has a greater impact on the yield of rape per plant in first border-row (figure 6). the rape yield per plant in first border-row of intercropping milk vetch was significantly higher than that other border-rows, while the yield per plant in other border-rows was similar, the difference was not significant. specifically, the rape yield per plant in the first border-row of intercropping milk vetch was 135%, 328%, 257% and 147% higher than that in the second, third, fourth and fifth border-rows respectively. in conclusion, intercropping milk vetch significantly increased the yield of first borderrow of rape, but had no effect on other border-rows. 3.3 correlation analysis of yield and agronomic traits in rape the correlation analysis between yield and agronomic traits of rape with different planting patterns and different border-rows (table 1) showed that yield per plant of rape was positively correlated with its agronomic traits. the yield per plant was very significant positive correlation with plant height, diameter of root, sessile leaf number, primary effective branch number, secondary effective branch number and number of pods per plant. the number of pods per plant was very significant positive correlation with plant height, diameter of root, sessile leaf number and secondary effective branch number. secondary effective branch number was very significant positive correlation with plant height, diameter of root, sessile leaf number, was a significant positive correlation with primary effective branch number. primary effective branch number was very significant positive correlation with plant height, diameter of root. sessile leaf number was significant positive correlation with diameter of root. diameter of root was very significant positive correlation with plant height. combined with the research results in figure 3 and figure 5, intercropping of milk vetch can significantly increase the yield of rape in first border-row, mainly because intercropping can increase the plant height, diameter of root, sessile leaves number and secondary effective branch number of rape, and then increase the number of pods per plant, and ultimately increase the yield of rape. 29 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 figure 5. effects of intercropping chinese milk vetch on agronomic traits of different border-rows rape (test 2) values followed by different letters are significantly different at p<0.05. figure 5. effects of intercropping chinese milk vetch on agronomic traits of different border-rows rape (test 2) values followed by different letters are significantly different at p<0.05. 30 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 4. conclusions and discussion border-rows effect is an important research content of intercropping system. intercropping has different effects on different border-rows, especially on first and second border-rows. our results showed that intercropping with milk vetch only significantly increased the yield of rape, mainly because intercropping increased the plant height, diameter of root, sessile leaves number, secondary effective branch number and other agronomic traits of rape, and then increased the number of pods per plant. previous studies by zhou et al. also showed that milk vetch rape intercropping significantly improved the growth of rape and achieved yield increase effect [12]. in recent years, some researchers have further studied the side effects of different intercropping systems. studies on flax border-rows effect under intercropping of maize flax showed that flax had significant border-rows advantage, which was manifested in the increase of capsule, the improvement of economic coefficient and the significant increase of grain weight in the first border-row compared with the middle borderintercropping milk vetch has different effects on the yield of rape in different border-rows, and has a greater impact on the yield of rape per plant in first border-row (figure 6). the rape yield per plant in first border-row of intercropping milk vetch was significantly higher than that other border-rows, while the yield per plant in other border-rows was similar, the difference was not significant. specifically, the rape yield per plant in the first border-row of intercropping milk vetch was 135%, 328%, 257% and 147% higher than that in the second, third, fourth and fifth border-rows respectively. in conclusion, intercropping milk vetch significantly increased the yield of first border-row of rape, but had no effect on other border-rows. figure 6. effects of intercropping chinese milk vetch on yield of different border-rows rape (test 2) values followed by different letters are significantly different at p<0.05. 3.3 correlation analysis of yield and agronomic traits in rape the correlation analysis between yield and agronomic traits of rape with different planting patterns and different border-rows (table 1) showed that yield per plant of rape was positively correlated with its agronomic traits. the yield per plant was very significant positive correlation with plant height, diameter of root, sessile leaf number, primary effective branch number, secondary effective branch number and number of pods per plant. the number of pods per plant was very significant positive correlation with plant height, diameter of root, sessile leaf number and secondary effective branch number. secondary effective branch number was very significant positive correlation with plant height, diameter of root, sessile leaf number, was a significant positive correlation with primary effective branch number. primary effective branch number was very significant positive correlation with plant height, diameter of root. sessile leaf number was significant positive correlation with diameter of root. diameter of root was very significant positive correlation with plant height. combined with the research results in figure 3 and figure 5, intercropping of milk vetch can significantly increase the yield of rape in first border-row, mainly because intercropping can increase the plant height, diameter of root, sessile leaves number and secondary effective branch number of rape, and then increase the number of pods per plant, and figure 6. effects of intercropping chinese milk vetch on yield of different border-rows rape (test 2) values followed by different letters are significantly different at p<0.05. table 1. correlation analysis of yield and agronomic traits of rape traits plant height diameter of root sessile leaf number height of branch point primary effective branch number secondary effective branch number number of pods per plant yield per plant plant height 1 0.720** 0.230 0.647** 0.596** 0.592** 0.565* 0.705** diameter of root 0.720** 1 0.639* 0.198 0.608** 0.850** 0.801** 0.861** sessile leaf number 0.230 0.639* 1 –0.512 0.362 0.815** 0.824** 0.692** height of branch point 0.647** 0.198 –0.512 1 0.329 –0.033 –0.445 0.294 primary effective branch number 0.596** 0.608** 0.362 0.329 1 0.513* 0.488 0.652** secondary effective branch number 0.592** 0.850** 0.815** -0.033 0.513* 1 0.872** 0.853** number of pods per plant 0.565* 0.801** 0.824** –0.445 0.488 0.872** 1 0.888** yield per plant 0.705** 0.861** 0.692** 0.294 0.652** 0.853** 0.888** 1 * significant at 0.05 level, ** extremely significant at 0.01 level. 31 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 rows [16]. in the system of maize and wheat intercropping, the border-rows advantage of intercropping wheat is significantly higher than that of monoculture wheat, and the yield of first border-row of intercropping wheat is 18.2% and 33.9% higher than that of second and third borderrows respectively [3]. in the maize/soybean or maize/peanut intercropping system, intercropping maize has obvious border-rows effect on soybean and peanut, which can significantly improve the agronomic traits and yield of crops in first and second border-rows [17]. intercropping of broad beans and potatoes also had obvious border-rows effect. under intercropping conditions, the starch content of potatoes in the first border-row was significantly higher than that in the second and third border-rows [18]. conversely, intercropping also had obvious border-rows effect on broad beans in the first and second border-rows [19]. under the condition of intercropping spring maize with vegetables, the yield and dry matter quality of spring maize in first and second border-rows were significantly higher than that in third border-row, and the yield was 58.7% and 40.8% higher than that in third border-row respectively [20]. in this study, the rape yield per plant in the first borderrow of intercropping milk vetch was 135%, 328%, 257% and 147% higher than that in the second, third, fourth and fifth border-rows respectively (figure 6), it is similar to the above results. for the milk vetch-rape intercropping system, milk vetch is a leguminous crop, which can provide some nutrients for rape through biological nitrogen fixation [21]. the root exudates of milk vetch can affect the growth of rape, and their complementary ecological niches broaden the utilization space of nutrients in rape [22]. so intercropping milk vetch could improve rape yield, which was further proved by the results of this study. in this intercropping system, milk vetch is the inferior crop and rape is the dominant crop. in addition to the nitrogen fixation effect of leguminous (milk vetch), the improvement of soil microenvironment of rape is also an important reason [23]. studies have found that in wheat and corn intercropping system, wheat side row advantage is affected more by the underground part than the above part [24], and in garlic intercropping system, the root nodules amount of side row fava bean is 80.06% higher than that in middle row [25]. in this study, intercropping with milk vetch had a significant effect on first border-row of rape, which may be due to the close distance between first border-row and milk vetch, and the rhizosphere interaction was stronger than other border-rows. in addition, intercropping of milk vetch changed characteristics of microbial community structure in rhizosphere soil of rape [13]. and there was a co-evolution-like relationship between the plant and soil microbes that facilitates plant growth by optimizing the nutritional benefits provided by plant-associated microbes [26]. maybe intercropping of milk vetch could change the structure characteristics of soil microbial community in the rhizosphere of rape, especially in first border-row, which was more conducive to the plant growth and increased the yield of rape. it was found that milk vetch only had a significant effect on intercropping first border-row of rape. intercropping of milk vetch increased the number of pods per plant by increasing plant height, diameter of root, sessile leaves number and secondary effective branch number of rape. in general, when configuring the intercropping system of milk vetch and rape in the future, it is recommended to intercrop milk vetch and two rows of rape, which ensure the planting density of rape and obtain higher rape yield. funding this research was supported by the jiangxi provincial natural science foundation (20202acbl215002), the national natural science foundation of china (31901476), and the undergraduate innovation and entrepreneurship training program of jiangxi agricultural university (201910410039). conflict of interest there is no conflict of interest. references [1] francis, c.a., 1990. potential of multiple cropping systems. altieri ma, hecht sb (eds) agroecology and small farm development. crc press, boca raton, fl. pp. 137-150. [2] meng, f.f., wang, b., liu, b.q., et al., 2014. analysis of yield and main agronomic traits of maize in maize and soybean strip intercropping system. crops. pp. 101-105. [3] qi, w.h., cai, q., yu, a.z., 2010. relationship between edge effects and root spatial distribution of intercropping wheat. journal of gansu agricultural university. 45(1), 72-76. [4] ai, p.g., ma, y.j., hai, y., 2020. influence of marginal effect on physiological characters and yields of intercropping cotton. journal of water resources&water engineering. 31(4), 138-144. doi: https://doi.org/10.11705 /j.issn.1672-643x.2020.04.20 [5] zhang, s.z., zhen, z.g., wu, f., 2004. application of the marginal effect in interplant peanut. journal of anhui agricultural sciences. 32(4), 616-621. [6] jiangxi institute of agricultural science, 1957. predoi: https://doi.org/10.11705 /j.issn.1672-643x.2020.04.20 32 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 liminary report on mixed seeding experiment of rape and chinese milk vetch. central china agriculture science. (5), 310-312. [7] jiang, s.h., 1955. a good way to develop oil source——green manure intercropping rape. agricultural science bulletin. (10), 567-568. [8] li, z.d., 1957. experience of rape mixed intercropping with chinese milk vetch in jiangxi province. agricultural science bulletin. (7), 382-384. [9] lou, y.s., yang, y.a., xu, j.m., 2001. effect of boron fertilization on b uptake and utilization by oilseed rape under different soil moisture regimes. chinese journal of applied ecology. 12(3), 478-480. [10] song, l., han, s., xi, y.y., et al., 2014. effects of intercropping on growth and yield of rape and chinese milk vetch. chinese journal of oil crop sciences. 36(2), 231-237. [11] zhou, k.j., xing, j., bo, y.h., et al., 2005. physiological and ecological effects of inter-and mixed cropping rape with milk vetch. chinese journal of applied ecology. 16(8), 1477-1481. [12] zhou, q., wang, l.c., ma, s.m., et al., 2018. influences of rape intercropping with chinese milk vetch and straw mulching on productive benefits in dryland region in southwest china. acta agronomica sinica. 44(3), 431-441. [13] zhou, q., chen, j., xing, y., et al., 2019. influence of intercropping chinese milk vetch on the soil microbial community in rhizosphere of rape. plant and soil. 440, 85-96. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-019-04040-x [14] zhou, q., wang, l.c., xiong, y., et al., 2016. effects of green manure intercropping and straw mulching on winter rape rhizosphere soil organic carbon and soil respiration. environmental science. 37(3), 11141120. [15] xiang, y.c., guan, c.y., huang, h., et al., 2010. effects of intercropping on accumulation of cd and pb in oilseed rape. journal of soil and water conservation. 24(3), 50-55. [16] he, s.w., guo, s.l., 1988. study on edge-row advantages of maize intercropping flax. gansu agricultural science and technology. (10), 8. [17] zhang, x.q., huang, g.q., bian, x.m., et al., 2012. marginal effect of soybean and peanut intercropped with maize in upland red soils. chinese journal of eco-agriculture. 20(08), 1010-1017. [18] li, p., zhang, y.c., tian, f., 2012. study on effect of marginal effect on quality of potato tuber in potato and faba bean intercropping system. crop research. 26(05), 471-473. [19] ma, z.l., 2014. marginal effects and mechanism of increasing yield of fava beans and potatoes intercropping system. hubei agricultural sciences. 53(10), 2254-2256+2272. [20] gao, j.y., ma, z.w., li, x., et al., 2015. effects of fertilization methods on border effect of cereal-vegetable strip intercropping system. chinese journal of eco-agriculture. 23(12), 1491-1501. [21] cao, w.d., huang, h.x., 2009. ideas on restoration and development of green manures in china. soil and fertilizer sciences in china. (4), 1-3. [22] zhao, b.q., zhang, f.s., li, z.j., et al., 2001. vertical distribution and its change of root quantity & activity of crops in the “winter wheat‖early spring maize/summer maize” cropping system ii. the vertical distribution and its changes of root quantity & activity of the early spring inter-planted maize. acta agronomica sinica. 27(6), 974-979. [23] zhou, q., chen, j., shi, c., et al., 2019. effects of chinese milk vetch intercropping with rapeseed under straw mulching on soil microenvironment. agricultural research in the arid areas. 37(04), 193-199. [24] chen, y.h., yu, s.l., yu, z.w., 1999. study on the edge effect in wheat. journal of shandong agricultural university. 30(4), 431-435. [25] xiu, h.x., dong, y.m., mao, z.s., et al., 2012. ecological effects of interspecific interaction i. effects of intercropping on nodulation in faba beans. journal of southern agriculture. 43(6), 749-752. [26] zhao, m.l., zhao, j., yuan, j., et al., 2021. root exudates drive soil-microbe-nutrient feedbacks in response to plant growth. plant cell environ. 44, 613628. 36 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: abiro tigabie, international crop research in semi-arid tropics (icrisat), p.o.box 5698 addis ababa, ethiopia; email abirotgb723@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.751 received: 25 october 2022; received in revised form: 7 december 2022; accepted: 15 december 2022; published: 30 december 2022 citation: tigabie, a., teferra, b., abe, a., 2022. access and control of resources by rural women in north shewa zone, amhara region, ethiopia. research on world agricultural economy. 3(4), 751. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.751 research article access and control of resources by rural women in north shewa zone, amhara region, ethiopia abiro tigabie1* beneberu teferra2 amsalu abe2 1. international crop research in semi-arid tropics (icrisat), p.o.box 5698, addis ababa, ethiopia 2. amhara agricultural research institute debre birhan agricultural research center, p.o.box 112, debre birhan, ethiopia abstract: gender is one of the crosscutting and the prime importance of any development plan and intervention. rural women play vital roles in agricultural activities to reduce poverty and food insecurity. this study focuses on gender equality in the access and control of agricultural and rural household resources by rural women. the study was conducted in bassonawerana, kewot, and moretinajiru districts of northern shewa zone amhara region ethiopia. data were collected using individual interviews, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. a total of 252 respondents were selected using purposive sampling, categorical, and then simple random sample selection techniques. descriptive statistics and harvard analysis techniques were used to assess the access, control, and utilization of agricultural and household resources in rural areas. most of the respondents were married. 95% of the study households depend on agricultural activities of crop and livestock farming. the average family size was 5 in which 3 of them were involved in agricultural activities. the average level of education for the households was 2.5 years. women were involved in on-farm and off-farm income-generating activities but most women had limited access to extension services and agricultural-related training. the benefits of different resources were shared by all family members equally except institutional resources. poultry was predominantly owned by women while other livestock resources and land resources were owned by both men’s and women’s family members. provision of women-targeted training and agricultural extension services focused on how to access and control institutional and household resources are vital to enhance their access to institutional resources and improve the production and productivity of women in the rural household and the entire community for livelihood and food security improvements. keywords: access; benefit; control; equality; gender mailto:abirotgb723@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9702-6877 37 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 1. introduction gender issues are of prime importance in the present time, in addition, access to and control over resources is a vital concern to think about it. rural households depend on a wide range of agricultural resources and household assets for their livelihoods including land, water, trees, and livestock. access refers to the ability to use and benefit from specific resources (material, financial, human, social, political, etc.) whereas control over resources also entails being able to make decisions over the use of that resource. according to paul and meena [1], access is referred to as a right and opportunity while control over referred to as the right and power over resources. access to production resources of land, extensions, and other institutional services ensures the reduction of poverty and food insecurity [2]. as fao [3] explained, “if women in rural areas had the same access to productive activities as men, agricultural and farming production would increase, and could feed approximately 150 million more people.” rural women play various roles in agricultural production to increase productivity and enhance economic growth and reduce poverty [4]. they participate along with the entire agricultural value chain activities, as producers, distributors, processors, and marketers [5]. rural women were involved in farm and non-farm enterprises and covered 42% and 60% of labor demand respectively [6]. data from the un food and agricultural organization [3] show that 43% of the agricultural workforce in developing countries and 50% in asia and africa is made by women. the importance of agricultural resources and extension services is vital for rural women, while their access to resources and services is limited (farming first) [7]. women have less access to land and other factors of production resources than men [6]. despite women making up the biggest workforce in food production, processing, and preparation, little is known about how women access and control production resources. gender variation exists in agricultural-related information, training, improved technologies, and extension services. although awareness of the importance of gender equality in agricultural policies in improved trends, key gaps that inhibited the access to and control of productive resources predisposition resource ownership positions of rural women. women received less access to extension services and production inputs than men [6]. in the production constraint assessment study, rural women lack access to and control of agricultural production resources [8]. this situation needs to assess the status of access to and control for the main production resources. the study was conducted to assess the access to and control for the basic economic resources and services and the distributions of agricultural and household resources in rural households and to identify the available institutions contributing to empowering women’s access to and control for production resources. 2. methodology 2.1 area description and sample selection methods the study was conducted in bassonawerana, kewot, and moretinajiru districts in the north shewa zone of amhara regional state, central highland ethiopia. the areas represented different farming practices and social and economic setups. furthermore, the study areas represented different agroecology of high, low, and mid-altitudes. 2.2 sampling methods the samples were selected using different approaches. the study areas were selected using purposive sampling methods and three kebeles were selected randomly from each study area. households were grouped into married and single which were men and women-headed households. a total of 252 (181 married and 71 single) representative samples were selected in simple random sampling techniques (table 1). table 1. area characteristics and sample respondents by the study area district rural households sample selected temperature (°c) rainfall (mm) altitude (masl) male female min max min max min max bassonawerana 18859 10080 88 –2 20 950 1200 1500 3200 kewot 9992 8778 85 13.3 29 600 900 1500 2500 moretinajiru 14932 2253 79 18 32 850 1100 1340 2960 source: abiro et al. (2017) 38 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 2.3 data collection and data analysis techniques 2.3.1 data collection both primary and secondary data were collected from published and unpublished resources. the primary (crosssectional) data were collected using focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and individual interview techniques from the selected respondents with the survey instruments. 2.3.2 data analysis the qualitative interview was analyzed using both deductive and inductive content analysis. the crosssectional data were analyzed using stata software package version 16. descriptive statistics of mean, percentage, standard deviations, and frequency were used when necessary to evaluate the status of the most important study variables. the most common gender analysis tools and frameworks (harvard framework) harvard gender analysis tool was used to evaluate and document the differences in the gendered access and control of resources of land, livestock, income, or extension information [9,10]. the harvard analysis technique was used to identify the available resources and clarify who has access to resources and who controls their use in relation to the resources identified. using the harvard analysis method answered the questions that who has access to and control over resources and who has access to and control over benefits (training, income, education, or services) were answered. the other gender analysis tool used for the study was social relations framework or social relation approach developed by naila kabeer. the tool was used to assess the extent of gender inequalities created, maintained, and reproduced in micro institutions (the household and community). the framework uses concepts rather than tools to concentrate on the relationships between people and their relationship to resources and activities and how these are reworked through ‘institutions’ such as the households and community. the social relations approach (sra) is a method of analyzing gender inequalities in the distribution of resources and power for designing policies and programs that enable women to be agents of their development useful gender analysis framework handbook [11,12]. indexes were developed for the different resources available in rural households to identify the access and control over resources in the rural livelihood system particularly, whether by men, women, or jointly in the study areas. the results were reported concurrently based on the quantitative data and supported by the qualitative data in explanatory methods in narrations, tables, and figures. 3. results and discussions 3.1 demographic and socioeconomic characteristics the main family members in rural households include heads, spouses (for married), sons, and daughters. those family members have definite labor contributions for onfarm and off-farm household economic activities. the primary family member who was respondents were 100 percent women. the second family member who was men was 88 percent. of those 72 percent were couples in the married respondents and 16 percent were sons for the single respondents. socioeconomic characteristics and participation in agricultural activities the rural women involved in agricultural activities and access to and control for various resources, information, extension services, and technologies mainly influenced by marital status. the majority (72 percent) of them were married and live with their spouses. the remaining were single due to being divorced, widowed, and unmarried. the average family size was 5 per household with a potential of 3 agricultural labor force (2 males and 1 female family member) involved in income-generating activities. the average level of education in years of schooling per household was 2.5 years (table 2). age, years of living in the study area, and a number of people relayed for critical support. on average they lived about 25 years with a minimum of 1 and a maximum of 70. most of them had relatives and non-relatives in their villages and outside their villages, and they believed in them during critical issues. their average age was 39 with a minimum of 18 and a maximum of 70 was the productive and potential age for critical decision-making in household management and livelihood improvement (table 3). 3.2 dependence status of the community during critical challenges and social network most people relied on their relatives and non-relatives during critical issues to support their lives consistently. the majority did not rely on government support during agricultural production fallers. half of them know and have relatives and friends in leadership positions to share new ideas and information (table 4). 39 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 table 2. demographic characteristics and agricultural labor contribution variables mean st. dev. [95% conf. interval] average male family members involved in agriculture 2 0.08 1.68 2.02 average female family members involved in agriculture 1 0.07 1.41 1.69 average family size 5 0.11 5.18 5.61 the average level of education in the household in years 2.52 0.25 2.04 3.01 years of experience in agriculture 20.14 0.65 18.86 21.42 source: own survey data analysis table 3. relatives and non-relatives people relayed critical issues variable mean std. dev. min max age 39.04 11.02 18 70 number of years living in this area 24.65 14.35 1 70 number of relatives relay in critical issues in your village 6.69 13.28 1 100 number of non-relatives relay to critical issues in your village 5.57 5.48 0 45 number of relatives relay in critical issues outside your village 6.63 12.38 1 100 number of non-relatives relay to critical issues outside your village 6.448 9.94 0 60 source: own survey data table 4. people’s dependence on others and the government during critical problems dependence and social relationships response percent do you have peoples you can rely on for critical issues within this village yes 79.76 no 20.24 do you have peoples you rely on for critical issues outside this village yes 75.79 no 24.21 do you rely on government support during agricultural production fallers? yes 47.22 no 52.78 3.2.1 the social groups and their most important functions the most frequently observed group in which most rural women participated as ordinary members and officials was the funeral association in amharic called “edir” followed by saving and credit cooperatives and input supply farmers cooperatives. most women are involved in the memberships of those social groups as a family of the member or independently (figure 1). the main functions of the groups were governed by the rules and regulations of the group bylaws. edir provided burial services during the death of their relatives and group members. the cooperatives played an economic role in the provision of input, product marketing, and financial services of savings and credits (figure 2). 3.2.2 women targeted social group and members relationships different women-targeted groups were established in the study areas for different purposes. women association is the common women group that is open to memberships for all interested women and available at lower administration level in the study areas. women league is the other women-targeted group composed of model women participants who have access to different exposures and are found in the front lines established in lower administration. women federations which are the representatives of all women’s associations and women league leaders in all areas by and available at the district level. coalitions of the women’s development team are the integration of different women’s development teams. there are also 40 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 other types of women-targeted groups such as one to five groups, development teams, and common interest groups (cig) particularly focused on girls and organized for the purpose of business operation on different economic activities. rural women and their family members participated in a social group as members of the community. they also interested to continue their memberships in the groups in the future. most of them had good social networks and share ideas with their relatives and non-relatives. 3.3 access to, control for, and benefits share of different resources 3.3.1 household resource the major resources owned and controlled by the household in this research include land, trees, livestock, money in the bank, grain in the store, and household furniture. the benefits generated from the resources include rental income, market income, and products. the family members had access to and control over the resources and shared the benefits at different levels and proportions. access to household resources households owned different resources in different magnitudes. from the entire sample 179, 235, 231, 240, and 125 households owned trees, land, furniture, grain in the store, and cash in the bank, respectively. though there was little dominance in some households, most of the household resources were accessed by the household members equally. no one had a priority to access those household resources. this study resulted in similar findings to paul and radha [13]. relatively women had high access to grain and home furniture. there were few gender differences seen in access to some resources from the results (table 5). control for and decision-making on household resources households made decisions on the various resources owned by different family members with different proportions. women had high decision-making power to use the home furniture and grain in the store than men. some resources like trees, land, and cash in the bank had power dominance of men’s decision-making (table 6). benefits share and use of household resources 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 input supply farmers cooperatives crop/seed producer coops local administration women association religious association saving and credit groups water user’s association edir (funeral groups) equb (money go round) religious group types of social groups most rural women participated (percent) figure 1. types of the social groups most rural women participated most important group functions produce marketing input marketing seed production farmers research group saving and credit funeral services tree planting soil and water conservation religious congregation input credit others figure 2. the most important functions of social groups 41 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 in most households, all family members benefited from the household resources equally. the benefits of household resources were shared with the family members when the resources are exchanged or sold for consumable items in the households. some resources like money were owned by individuals and benefited those owners separately (table 7). 3.3.2 livestock resources the livestock resources found and considered for the analysis purposes include cattle (dairy cows, oxen, heifer, calf), small ruminants (sheep and goat), equines (horse, donkey, and mule), and poultry. due to agrochemical effects, no one had a chance to own honeybee colonies. in this study majority had the livestock resources as 210 owned cattle, 178 owned shoat (sheep and goat), 159 owned equines, and 202 owned poultry. access to and ownership of livestock resources the livestock resources are owned and controlled by the household family members with different proportions. the chicken was the only resource in which 44 percent of it was predominantly owned by women while other livestock resources were owned by both men and women (table 8). control for and decision-makers on livestock resources women’s predominantly made decisions on poultry. the couples (husband and wife) had a high rate of equal decision-making power on the livestock resources. however, in some men-headed households’ men had a priority decision-making power on most livestock resources extable 5. access to household resources who accesses the resources (ownership)? access to household resources (%) trees land furniture grain money predominantly men 12.85 11.91 2.16 3.75 13.6 predominantly women 15.64 14.89 42.42 27.5 25.6 exclusively men 0 0 0 0 0.8 exclusively women 2.23 3.83 3.9 4.17 4.8 men first 0 0.43 0 0 0.8 women first 0.56 0.43 1.3 0.83 0.8 all family members equally 30.73 32.77 29.87 27.08 15.2 husband and wife equally 37.99 35.74 20.35 36.67 38.4 table 6. control of household resources who controls the resources in your household? household resources decision-making (frequency) trees land furniture grain money predominantly men 40 53 7 18 23 predominantly women 39 50 115 88 36 exclusively men 6 7 0 4 4 exclusively women 16 23 29 26 9 men first 8 13 0 5 4 women first 5 6 10 9 6 all family members equally 4 11 12 7 3 husband and wife equally 61 72 58 83 40 table 7. benefits from household resources who benefited from household resources? household resources decision-making (frequency) trees land furniture grain money predominantly men 3 0 2 0 3 predominantly women 5 7 19 10 7 exclusively men 4 1 0 1 1 exclusively women 3 8 8 9 4 men first 0 2 1 0 1 women first 0 0 2 2 0 all family members equally 122 161 155 162 75 husband and wife equally 45 56 44 56 35 42 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 cluding poultry (table 9). benefits from livestock resources all family members had a great share of benefits from all livestock resources. in some paired households, the spouses and partners had a relative benefit share from the livestock resources beyond their sons and daughters (table 10). 3.3.3 institutional service provider resources the institutional and service provider resources have significant contributions to improve the triple roles of women in production, reproduction, and social roles involvement. these resources were identified by the community and used for the analysis. the resources include household decisions, agricultural technologies, political power, and extension services. access to institutional service provider resources many of the rural households had access to different institutional services. the agricultural extension support was accessed for 93 percent through training and experience-sharing visits. the majority 99.6 percent of them have access to participate in the household decision, the access to improved technologies weighted 92 percent and nearly 64 percent of the households had access to particitable 8. access to livestock resources who accesses the different livestock resources? (ownership) access to different livestock resources (frequency) cattle sheep and goat equines chicken predominantly men 20 12 13 1 predominantly women 19 28 15 88 exclusively men 0 0 1 0 exclusively women 3 4 3 9 men first 0 0 0 0 women first 2 2 1 5 all family members equally 72 65 59 50 husband and wife equally 94 67 67 48 table 9. control on livestock resources who controls the different livestock resources? control of different livestock resources (%) cattle sheep and goat equines chicken predominantly men 13.33 10.11 10.06 1.49 predominantly women 17.14 24.16 18.24 56.72 exclusively men 2.38 1.12 2.52 0 exclusively women 6.67 7.87 5.66 13.93 men first 3.81 2.81 3.14 0.5 women first 2.38 1.69 1.89 7.96 all family members equally 5.24 6.18 8.81 2.49 husband and wife equally 49.05 46.07 49.69 16.92 table 10. benefit share from livestock resources who benefited from the livestock resources products and income? (when sold) benefit share from the livestock resources (%) cattle sheep and goat equines chicken predominantly men 0.95 0.63 1.26 0 predominantly women 0.95 1.12 1.26 8.96 exclusively men 0 0.63 0 0 exclusively women 1.43 2.25 1.26 3.98 men first 0 0 0 0 women first 0.48 0.63 0.63 1 all family members equally 70.95 73.6 69.81 64.18 husband and wife equally 25.24 21.35 25.79 21.89 43 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 pate in political power. men and women had equal access to political power and household decision. women had relatively low access to improved technologies. single women had access to agricultural extension services compared to married women (table 11). control for and decision-making roles on institutional resources different institutional resources controlled by the household family members with different magnitudes. men and women had the predominant decision power to use extension support services. relatively men had a large share of control power over improved technologies. women also had higher decision power on political power and household decisions. most household decisions also exposed to participatory or shared approaches (table 12). benefit share from the institutional resources husband and wife benefited equally from the extension support but not for the boys and girls who are actively engaged in agricultural production activities. most of the family members benefited from the household decisions. the improved technologies benefited the women because the technologies improved the productivity of most of the agricultural products managed by women and should be accepted by them (table 13). 3.3.4 access to extension support services and information the majority (75 percent) of the women accessed extension services either by themselves or through their family members. the major extension support services identified and provided to the rural households were training, advice, and consultancy. these services were accessed predominantly by household heads. this agreed with the findings [14]. sons and daughters accessed training table 11. access to institutional resources who accesses the services from the institutional resources? access to the institutional resources (frequency) extension support household decisions improved technologies political power predominantly men 58 34 70 54 predominantly women 66 62 54 54 exclusively men 1 1 0 0 exclusively women 12 15 11 3 men first 7 1 7 5 women first 4 2 3 1 all family members equally 39 43 40 9 husband and wife equally 47 93 46 34 total 234 251 231 160 table 12. control of family members for different institutional resources in percent who controls (makes decisions) to get the services from institutions? control power of the institutional resources (%) extension support household management decisions improved technologies political participation predominantly men 27.78 12.75 30.3 28.75 predominantly women 27.78 23.11 22.08 35 exclusively men 0.85 1.99 1.3 5 exclusively women 9.4 11.16 9.52 5 men first 6.84 3.19 5.63 5 women first 4.27 2.79 3.46 2.5 all family members equally 2.56 3.98 3.9 0.63 husband and wife equally 20.51 41.04 23.81 18.13 total 100 100 100 100 44 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 rarely for business operations (figure 3). frequency of extension contacts majority accessed extension services monthly and every three months. few of them contacted extension service providers every six months and others communicated weekly (figure 4). market information access most of them had access to market information to sell their produce and buy farm inputs. most (87 percent) had access to market information when purchasing farm inputs of improved seed and fertilizer and 76 percent accessed the market information when selling farm outputs. many (92 percent) of the women used radio, phones, and television to access information and new ideas from different sources. some of them used combinations of various media types. 3.4 women’s supportive institutions and contributions various public institutions and organizations supported women to empower gender capacity targeted to development support. some of those focused on gender issues and others mainstreamed the gender issues in the intervention. from those institutes, women and child affairs is an independent public institution responsible to support women in advice, capacity building (provision of training), organizing of women in different groups and associations, and monitoring and following up on women’s targeted interventions and action plans across all sectors. others mainstreamed gender issues in the entire staff. these are the offices of agriculture and police and justice. the office of agriculture gender experts is responsible to table 13. benefits of institutional resources who benefits from (used) the services of institutions? benefit share from the institutional resources (%) extension support household management decisions improved technologies political participation predominantly men 6.84 0.4 4.76 8.13 predominantly women 6.84 4.38 3.46 10 exclusively men 0 0.56 0 0.63 exclusively women 9.4 3.98 2.6 1.88 men first 2.99 0 0.43 2.5 women first 1.28 0.8 64.94 0.63 all family members equally 0.43 64.14 23.81 43.75 husband and wife equally 58.12 26.29 2.6 32.5 77% 23% do your family memebers access to extension services? (%) yes no 76% 21% 3% in your household who access extension services? (%) head head & spouse son & daughter figure 3. access to extension services and family members addressed for extension services 45 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 support women in agricultural-related services of training, input access, monitoring, and follow-ups. the office's justice and police allocated individuals to follow women’s cases in all legal issues and the focal persons are women it makes easy to discuss criminal cases and women are confident to discuss with them. in addition, gender command posts were established at the district and kebele (lower administration) levels. the command post is led by vice heads of the district and the kebele chairmen targeted to support women in all cases. 3.5 the gender needs the practical gender needs particularly focused on women include pure water, school, grain mill services, and market infrastructures. the status of the gender needs found in the study areas found relatively in excellent conditions. farmers perceived the status of the extension services and agricultural training delivered by different actors found in good conditions. health service provider institutes also found in good status in both access and quality service delivery. the gender needs of labor-saving technologies were not available and were in poor conditions (figure 5). 3.6 gender-targeted challenges in rural women major challenges were the venerability of women for labor abuse, social frustrations, and biasedness. gender is one of the cross-cutting issues to be addressed in all aspects of the study area but the focus to address all the issues was low. figure 4. how frequently of households contacted to extension service providers (percent) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 pu re wa ter tr an sp ort fa cil itie s he alt h s erv ice s ch ild sc ho ol ser vic es gr ain m ill ser vic e ex ten sio n s erv ice ag ric ult ura l tr ain ing se rvi ce s m ark et inf ras tru ctu re la bo r s av ing te ch no log ies status of the gender needs in percent excellent very good good poor figure 5. practical development of gender needs and their status 46 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 though there was the availability of affirmative action in all development approaches, women were not well competent due to the lack of a conducive environment for competition. low wage prices for women laborers, low achievement (57-60 percent) of women-targeted activity plans, low attention, and commitments of political leaders at the lower level, and less attention for women in resource distribution during the separation of marriages. 4. conclusions and recommendations the resources accessed and controlled in rural households by different family members in different proportions. from the livestock resources, poultry was the only livestock resource predominantly owned by rural women while other livestock resources were owned by both men and women family members. the decision for the livestock resources was made by husband and wife equally for the male-headed households. rural women involved in different agricultural production activities to increase productivity and food security. many women were involved in off-farm income-generating activities in addition to agricultural activities. various institutes supported women in capacity building, legal protection, advisory services, and women empowerment. different household resources were owned by various family members in different proportions and controlled by the resource owners. the benefits mostly shared by all family members equally. women participated in various social groups available in their areas. women association was the only womentargeted group available in all study areas with open membership for all women. most of the extension programs targeted household heads which are mainly men while the women, girls, and boys had less access to agricultural extension supports and services. the provision of women-targeted agricultural production and off-farm business management activities related to training and extension service is very important to improve women’s production and resource productivity. awareness creation for both men and women on access, control, and use of agricultural resources for women is very important to improve the decision-making power of women in the household and the community. acknowledgments the team wants to express their gratitude to the amhara region agricultural research institute (arari) for funding to conduct this research. i want to appreciate the researchers involved in data collection during the study time. my thankfulness was also stated to the respondents in the study areas who gave their time to share experiences and express their feelings during data collection. authors contribution the first author contributed to proposal development, research design, instrument development, team coordination, data collection, data management, data analysis, and report writing. the second and third authors contributed to data collection and report writing. conflicts of interest there are no conflicts of interest. references [1] paul, p., meena, b.s., 2016. a study on access to and control over resources: a gender perspective. international journal of science, environment, and technology. 5(5), 2982-2988. [2] ludgate, n., 2019. monitoring, evaluation, learning (mel) framework: version 01. advancing women’s participation in livestock vaccine value chains in nepal,senegal and uganda; 2019 oct. university of florida. [3] fao, 2011. the state of food and agriculture: women in agriculture: closing the gender gap for development. [4] sraboni, e., malapit, h.j., quisumbing, a.r., et al., 2014. women’s empowerment in agriculture: what role for food security in bangladesh? world development. 61, 11-52. [5] jafry, t., sulaiman, v.r., 2013. gender inequality and agricultural extension. the journal of agricultural education and extension. 19(5), 433-436. [6] buehren, n., gonzalez, p., copley, a., 2019. what are the economic costs of gender gaps in ethiopia? [internet] foreign, commonwealth & development office [published 2019 mar1]. available from: https://www.gov.uk/research-for-development-outputs/what-are-the-economic-costs-of-gender-gaps-inethiopia. [7] suboh, l., 2022. intern essays. farming first [internet] [accessed on 2022 mar 8]. available from: http://www.farmingfirst.org/women. [8] tigabie, a., chanyalew, y., wondale, l., et al., 2018. participatory agricultural production system analysis: implication for research and development intervention in north shewa zone. geography. [9] nelson, s., sisto, i., crowley, e., et al., 2012. women http://www.farmingfirst.org/women%20accessed%20on%20march%2038/2022 47 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 in agriculture: closing the gender gap for development1. feeding a thirsty world. 25. [10] march, c., smyth, i.a., mukhopadhyay, m., 1999. a guide to gender-analysis frameworks. uk: oxfam gb, practical action publishing. [11] useful gender analysis framework handbook [internet] [accessed 2022 mar 3]. available from: http:// www.fao.org/gender/seaga/seaga-home/en/. [12] fletcher, a.j., schonewille, r., 2015. overview of resources on gender-sensitive data related to water. paris: unesco. [13] paul, m.m., rani, p.r., 2001. gender differences in access to and control over farm resources. agriculture and human values. 18(1), 5-9. [14] umeta, g., lemecha, f., mume, t., 2011. survey on women’s access to agricultural extension services at selected districts of mid rift valley of ethiopia. journal of agricultural extension and rural development. 3(3), 51-63. http://www.fao.org/gender/seaga/seaga-home/en/ http://www.fao.org/gender/seaga/seaga-home/en/ 15 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: ryan mark a. ambong, research, development and extension unit, occidental mindoro state college, philippines; email: ryanmark.ambong2017@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i2.513 received: 1 april 2022; received in revised form: 26 april 2022; accepted: 6 may 2022; published: 16 may 2022 citation: ambong, r.m.a., 2022. methods of rice technology adoption studies in the philippines and other asian countries: a systematic review. research on world agricultural economy. 3(2), 513. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i2.513 review article methods of rice technology adoption studies in the philippines and other asian countries: a systematic review ryan mark a. ambong* research, development and extension unit, occidental mindoro state college, philippines abstract: agricultural researchers in developing countries were not able to give much attention on the adoption studies of agricultural technologies until the period of green revolution. these technologies are disseminated in rural farming community by agricultural extension professionals to boost farm efficiencies and productivity. this paper presents the systematic review of methods employed by previous researchers in studying agricultural technology adoption with special reference to rice. the review focuses on the study of rice technologies adoption in the philippines and other related studies conducted by a filipino author in other countries in the asian region. from 391 adoption studies identified, 22 papers were selected and included in the review. these papers were retrieved from scopus database. this review revealed that papers focused on studying the adoption of rice cultivation practices employed quantitative techniques. institutional factors were found to critically influence the decision-making of the farmers to adopt production technologies. keywords: adoption studies; agricultural extension; rice; technology dissemination; philippines 1. introduction agricultural research institutions develop new technologies which are disseminated through effective extension and mass media channels. moreover, these technologies must reach the farms for effective adoption to realize desired benefits [1]. nevertheless, adoption rate of technologies related to agriculture is very low in developing countries despite the availability of numerous public interventions [2]. the low uptake of technology among smallholder farmers is due to lack of information and credit [3] while the lack of knowledge explains low adoption rate of technologies [4]. this implies that lack of knowledge critically explains low adoption rate of profitable technologies among the farmers [2]. similarly, adoption is not abrupt due to the presence of significant gap between the market promotion of technology and the actual use of the farmers [5]. rural farmers decide on the sustainability of their business and their complex decision-making process is influenced by the existence of agricultural operational methods mailto:ryanmark.ambong2017@gmail.com http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i2.513 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5044-2913 16 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 and technologies [6]. hence, measuring and interpreting its impact is difficult [7]. awareness is an important prerequisite for adoption, however, exposure to technology is usually not random and is prone to selection bias. the exposure of an individual to technology may be due to the result of the researchers’ or extension workers’ selection with high possibility of being biased [8]. likewise, there exists a lot of scientific researches aimed at addressing determinants of adoption of agricultural technologies. however, the way these researches are carried out is indefinite and non-cohesive [6]. nevertheless, studies conducted in different countries and cultures are the same and they only vary on complexity and number of variables studied [5]. therefore, this review aims to explore the different methods used by previous authors to study the adoption of various technologies for rice. specifically, this review wants to determine the type of technologies studied by agricultural researchers, their method of analyses, and their major findings of their papers. 2. methods 2.1 selection of studies for review the systematic review of papers related to the farmers’ adoption of rice technologies is focused on agricultural practices regardless of its type. journal articles published and indexed at scopus database were searched using the key words that include “farmers’ adoption of rice technologies” limited to year of publication, subject area, and language. the combination of the key words such as “farmers’ adoption of rice technologies and rice innovations” were used to obtain an array of information about adoption of agricultural innovations but is limited only to rice as the main subject of interest. initially, the database has generated 391 documents that were subjected to screening. 2.2 screening of papers the systematic review of agricultural technologies for rice is in accordance with the inclusion criteria set such as: 1) the research focus on rice production intervention and technology between 2010-2018 authored by at least one filipino researcher (if there is co-authorship) or done in the philippines, 2) focus on the adoption of rice technology by farmers or farming households; or technology/ knowledge transferred to farming communities, 3) research methods such as qualitative, quantitative or mixed in english language published as primary journal article in the database of scopus elsevier, 4) the research paper reports innovation in rice production and post-harvest activity with clear methodology and analytical procedure, 5) the study is focused on the adoption of agricultural practices or technologies for rice. rice production and post-harvest practices being studied are the agricultural innovations which are regarded as modern technologies that aim to improve farm productivity and farmer socio-economics to alleviate poverty and hunger among rice farmers. papers that deal with traditional farm practices without innovative components were not included in the systematic review. the systematic review looks at the studies only focused on innovative agricultural practices but excluded impact and adoption intensity [9]. from the total of 391 documents initially obtained, 166 papers were removed following the restrictions on the year of publication and is furthered narrowed down to 157 after removing duplicates. moreover, only 126 papers are published as primary journal article in which 26 are either authored by at least one filipino researcher or the researches were conducted in the philippines. the remaining 26 articles were screened and evaluated if they qualify for review. finally, another four articles were excluded following the population, intervention, comparator, outcome and study design (picos) format [9] (see table 1). a total of 22 articles were used in the systematic review following the prisma (preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and metaanalyses) 2009 flow diagram [10] (figure 1). table 1. inclusion and exclusion criteria for the systematic review. picos inclusion criteria exclusion criteria population rice farmers/rice farming households consumers, traders, agents, processors, extension workers intervention innovative rice practices/technologies/interventions at farm level off-farm/non-farm level interventions (i.e. marketing and off-farm processing) comparator traditional practices/indigenous knowledge none outcome adoption rate, productivity, yield none study design statistical techniques/models in assessing adoption and its determinants none 17 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 2.3 acquisition of data from the screened papers used in the systematic review, important data were obtained from each journal articles consistent with the purpose of the review. these data include the type of technology or intervention, the method of research and statistical analysis or model and the major findings of the research paper. 2.4 attributes of the pre-selected papers in the review the succeeding tables present the attributes of 391 papers that were pre-selected for systematic review. following the format provided by the elsevier’s scopus database, documents were categorized in terms of access type, year of publication, subject area, document type, source type, origin, and language. from table 2, majority of the papers (88.49%) searched from the data base are not open access and require permission or payment. from these selections, most (42.45%) of the papers were published prior to the year 2010 as presented in table 3. in terms of subject area, majority or 65.73% belong to the discipline of agricultural and biological sciences. in the data base, it is possible for a document to have duplicates wherein one research paper is categorized to multiple disciplines or subject area (table 4). majority of the papers’ document and source type are articles (81.33%) from journals (88.75%) (table 5). moreover, table 6 shows that majority of these publications are journal that may consist of original articles or reviews. in table 7, the origin of the papers was identified according to the country or territory where it was published. based on the result of pre-selection, most of the documents were published in india and the philippines (24.04 percent and 17.14 percent, respectively). with that, it can be inferred that most adoption studies in rice technologies originate from these countries given also that their economies are dependent to agriculture, specifically in rice production. finally, majority (97.70%) the documents searched from the data base were written and published in english language (table 8). table 2. access type of pre-selected papers. access type number of documents percentage open access 45 11.51 other 346 88.49 figure 1. process of paper screening using prisma. 2.3 acquisition of data from the screened papers used in the systematic review, important data were obtained from each journal articles consistent with the purpose of the review. these data include the type of technology or intervention, the method of research and statistical analysis or model and the major findings of the research paper. 2.4 attributes of the pre-selected papers in the review the succeeding tables present the attributes of 391 papers that were pre-selected for systematic review. following the format provided by the elsevier’s scopus database, documents were categorized in terms of access type, year of publication, subject area, document type, source type, origin, and language. from table 2, majority of the papers (88.49%) searched from the data base are not open access and require permission or payment. from these selections, most (42.45%) of the papers were published prior to year 2010 as presented in table 3. in terms of subject area, majority or 65.73% belong to the discipline of agricultural and biological sciences. research removed (n= 4) not primary journal article did not qualify in picos abstracts screened (n= 126) research removed (n= 100) <1 author not filipino/ research not conducted in the philippines research title screened after removal of duplicates (n= 157) research title screened following year ofpublication (n= 166) primary journal articles included in the systematic review (n= 22) primary journal articles for eligibility and quality (n=26) e xc lu si on /i nc lu si on sc re en in g papers identified from the database (n= 391) id en ti fi ca ti on figure 1. process of paper screening using prisma. 18 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 table 3. year of publication of pre-selected papers. year of publication number of documents percentage 2018 39 9.97 2017 35 8.95 2016 40 10.23 2015 24 6.14 2014 13 3.32 2013 15 3.84 2012 23 5.88 2011 20 5.12 2010 16 4.09 prior to 2010 166 42.45 table 4. subject area of pre-selected papers. subject area number of documents percentage agricultural and biological sciences 257 65.73 social sciences 110 28.13 environmental science 99 25.32 econometrics, economics and finance 51 13.04 earth and planetary sciences 28 7.16 biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology 22 5.63 engineering 16 4.09 business, management and accounting 11 2.81 energy 11 2.81 arts and humanities 6 1.53 table 5. document type of pre-selected papers. document type number of documents percentage article 318 81.33 review 25 6.39 book chapter 24 6.14 conference paper 19 4.86 short survey 2 0.51 book 1 0.26 article in press 1 0.26 note 1 0.26 table 6. source type of pre-selected papers. source type number of documents percentage journals 347 88.75 books 27 6.91 book series 12 3.07 conference proceedings 3 0.77 trade publications 2 0.51 19 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 2.5 attributes of included papers in the review out of 391 primary documents compiled for review, only 22 primary journal articles that reported rice technologies and rice innovations adoption conform with the inclusion criteria. table 9 summarizes the journal articles included in the systematic review. after the selection of articles for the systematic review, the type of technologies studied, and the method of analyses were evaluated. table 7. origin of pre-selected papers. country/territory number of documents percentage india 94 24.04 philippines 67 17.14 united states 50 12.79 australia 32 8.18 japan 31 7.93 netherlands 21 5.37 nigeria 21 5.37 china 20 5.12 united kingdom 19 4.86 indonesia 16 4.09 others 20 5.12 table 8. language of pre-selected papers. language number of documents percentage english 382 97.70 chinese 3 0.77 japanese 2 0.51 french 1 0.26 portuguese 1 0.26 spanish 1 0.26 thai 1 0.26 table 9. journal articles subjected to systematic review. document title author/s year source on-farm assessment of different rice crop management practices in the mekong delta, vietnam, using sustainability performance indicators stuart, a.m., devkota, k.p., sato, t., (...), beebout, s., singleton, g.r. 2018 field crops research 229, pp. 103-114 is farmer-to-farmer extension effective? the impact of training on technology adoption and rice farming productivity in tanzania nakano, y., tsusaka, t.w., aida, t., pede, v.o. 2018 world development 105, pp. 336-351 the application of best management practices increases the profitability and sustainability of rice farming in the central plains of thailand stuart, a.m., pame, a.r.p., vithoonjit, d., (...), singleton, g.r., lampayan, r.m. 2018 field crops research 220, pp. 78-87 o n f a r m a s s e s s m e n t o f a n e w e a r l y m a t u r i n g drought-tolerant rice cultivar for dry direct seeding in rainfed lowlands ohno, h., banayo, n.p.m.c., bueno, c., (...), garcia, r., kato, y. 2018 field crops research 219, pp. 222-228 recognizing farmers’ practices and constraints for intensifying rice production at riparian wetlands in indonesia lakitan, b., hadi, b., herlinda, s., (...), yunindyawati, y., meihana, m. 2018 njas wageningen journal of life sciences 85, pp. 10-20 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=16067620700&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=54892721000&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=54892721000&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=57204355633&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=57185656800&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=57185656800&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=7004925104&zone https://www.scopus.com/sourceid/78796?origin=resultslist https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=57199956739&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=56659390600&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=56659390600&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=57200169568&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=38962025100&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=38962025100&zone https://www.scopus.com/sourceid/30060?origin=resultslist https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=16067620700&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=37089234800&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=37089234800&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=57193389753&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=7004925104&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=7004925104&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=6505755381&zone https://www.scopus.com/sourceid/78796?origin=resultslist https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=57201332936&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=55612980200&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=55612980200&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=7005223382&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=57199857427&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=55473620800&zone https://www.scopus.com/sourceid/78796?origin=resultslist https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=24311775700&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=47561316000&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=37107781700&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=37107781700&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=57202154333&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=57202154333&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=57202154333&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=57196089719&zone https://www.scopus.com/sourceid/130185?origin=resultslist https://www.scopus.com/sourceid/130185?origin=resultslist https://www.scopus.com/sourceid/130185?origin=resultslist https://www.scopus.com/sourceid/130185?origin=resultslist 20 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 receiving information about rice seeds on mobile phones in eastern india pede, v., yamano, t., chellattanveettil, p., gupta, i. 2018 development in practice 28(1), pp. 95-106 incorporating gender into low-emission development: a case study from vietnam farnworth, c.r., ha, t.t., sander, b.o., (...), de haan, n.c., mcguire, s. 2017 gender, technology and development 21(1-2), pp. 5-30 a multi-stakeholder partnership for the dissemination of alternate wetting and drying water-saving technology for rice farmers in the philippines palis, f.g., lampayan, r.m., flor, r.j., sibayan, e. 2017 aims agriculture and food 2(3), pp. 290-309 yield and income effects of rice varieties with tolerance of multiple abiotic stresses: the case of green super rice (gsr) and flooding in the philippines yorobe, j.m., ali, j., pede, v.o., (...), velarde, o.p., wang, h. 2016 agricultural economics (united kingdom) 47(3), pp. 261271 farmers, institutions and technology in agricultural change processes: outcomes from adaptive research on rice production in sulawesi, indonesia flor, r.j., singleton, g., casimero, m., (...), maat, h., leeuwis, c. 2016 international journal of agricultural sustainability 14(2), pp. 166-186 indigenous knowledge and practices for the sustainable management of ifugao forests in cordillera, philippines camacho, l.d., gevaña, d.t., carandang, a.p., camacho, s.c. 2016 international journal of biodiversity science, ecosystem services and management 12(1-2), pp. 5-13 development and evaluation of the turbo happy seeder for sowing wheat into heavy rice residues in nw india sidhu, h.s., singh, m., singh, y., (...), singh, v., singh, s. 2015 field crops research 184, pp. 201-212 dissemination of natural resource management technology for irrigated rice in the philippines: on-farm validation to national extension corales, a.m., sibayan, e.b., palis, f.g. 2015 pertanika journal of tropical agricultural science 38(2), pp. 219-233 determinants of herbicide use in rice production in the philippines beltran, j.c., white, b., burton, m., doole, g.j., pannell, d.j. 2013 agricultural economics (united kingdom) 44(1), pp. 45-55 factors influencing farmers’ adoption of modern rice technologies and good management practices in the philippines mariano, m.j., villano, r., fleming, e. 2012 agricultural systems 110, pp. 41-53 review and analysis of documented patterns of agricultural research impacts in southeast asia maredia, m.k., raitzer, d.a. 2012 agricultural systems 106(1), pp. 46-58 farmers’ experiences with the use of location-specific technologies in cabanatuan city, nueva ecija, philippines pascual, j.v., bumatay, e.l. 2012 asia life sciences 21(1), pp. 299-315 rice yields and yield gaps in southeast asia: past trends and future outlook laborte, a.g., de bie, k.c.a.j.m., smaling, e.m.a., (...), boling, a.a., van ittersum, m.k. 2012 european journal of agronomy 36(1), pp. 9-20 can humans outsmart rodents? learning to work collectively and strategically palis, f.g., singleton, g.r., brown, p.r., (...), umali, c., nga, n.t.d. 2011 wildlife research 38(7), pp. 568-578 are irrigated farming ecosystems more productive than rainfed farming systems in rice production in the philippines? mariano, m.j., villano, r., fleming, e. 2010 agriculture, ecosystems and environment 139(4), pp. 603610 farmers’ adoption of improved upland rice technologies for sustainable mountain development in southern yunnan wang, h., pandey, s., hu, f., (...), ding, s., tao, d. 2010 mountain research and development 30(4), pp. 373-380 assessing the impact of agricultural technology adoption on farmers’ well-being using propensity-score matching analysis in rural china wu, h., ding, s., pandey, s., tao, d. 2010 asian economic journal 24(2), pp. 141-160 table 9 continued https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=38962025100&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=35893596300&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=35893596300&zone 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https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=7102600328&zone https://www.scopus.com/sourceid/23259?origin=resultslist https://www.scopus.com/sourceid/23259?origin=resultslist https://www.scopus.com/sourceid/23259?origin=resultslist https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=55703635600&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=7401542863&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=7402453185&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=7402453185&zone https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?origin=resultslist&authorid=7102600328&zone https://www.scopus.com/sourceid/28407?origin=resultslist https://www.scopus.com/sourceid/28407?origin=resultslist 21 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 3. results and discussion 3.1 type of technology studied the papers included in the review mostly discussed on the rice cultivation technologies and practices (40.9%), irrigation and water technologies (27.27%), improved seed varieties (18.18%), and integrated pest management (ipm) (13.64%). the widespread progress of these technologies in the philippines was prompted by the establishment of two rice research and development (r&d) institutions in the country namely philippine rice research institute (philrice) and the international rice research institute (irri) [11-13]. 3.2 methods used generally, the articles focused on the technologies for rice production specifically on crop management practices and have diversity in terms of the methods used. majority or 54.54% applied quantitative methods specifically regression analysis, on-farm/field experiment, and technical efficiency and economic analyses. on the other hand, qualitative and mixed method both comprise the 22.72% of the papers. these studies mostly applied participatory action research (household surveys, focus group discussions, key informant interview), case study, and impact assessment. 3.3 major findings the result of the systematic review shows that rice technologies have mostly positive effects to farmers. nevertheless, the systematic review reveals that the institutional factors are the most critical factors affecting farmer decisions to adopt which includes education, access to extension services, and access to technological information. technology acceptance can be distressing to farmers especially when its relevance and expected outcomes are not properly demonstrated to them. finally, low level of knowledge about the technology leads to resistance and poor decision-making. below are the specific outcomes or impact of the adoption of rice cultivation practices and technology ranked according to their significance: 1) improved crop management practices 2) enhanced farmers’ capacity and capability 3) increased net income/profit and benefit-cost ratio 4) addressed issues on food security and sustainable food production 5) increased yield and productivity 6) decreased production cost table 10. type of technology, method, and major finding of rice technology adoption studies reviewed. author/s technology method major finding stuart et al., 2018 good agriculture practice (gap); small farmer, large field (sflf) household survey eight sustainable rice platform (srp) performance indicators, bonferroni test, linear regression mean total production cost per season decreased while mean net income and benefit-cost ratio increased. gap and sflf management approaches improved rice farming practices and was sustainable than conventional farmers. nakano et al., 2018 farmer-to-farmer extension program on rice cultivation technologies panel survey descriptive and regression analysis new technologies were first adopted by the trained key and intermediate farmers thus, yield gap initially widened between the trained farmers and the non-trained ordinary famers. stuart et al., 2018 cost reduction operating principles (crop), alternate wetting and drying (awd), drum seeder (ds) technology farmer participatory field trials, experiment linear mixed models with maximum likelihood estimation, rank transformation, bonferroni test fertilizer, seed, and pesticide use can be reduced in intensive lowland irrigated rice growing areas by following best management practices with no yield penalty. the improved practices were found to reduce costs and increase profit. ohno et al., 2018 dry direct seeding of rice (ddsr) in drought-prone lowland areas on-farm experiment t-test, anova crop establishment using ddsr is affected by erratic rainfall at the onset of wet season followed by weed infestation. on the other hand, there is greater establishment rate for newly released drought-tolerant cultivar resulting to less weed infestation and higher yield. 22 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 lakitan et al., 2018 crop cultivation practices two-staged mixed qualitative method (grounded theory and questionnaire-guided survey) technology development must be based on the needs, preference, and absorptive capacity of targeted smallholder farmers pede et al., 2018 use mobile phones to obtain information about rice varieties quantitative study regression analysis farmers located farther away from the market were more likely to pay for the calls. paying charges to receive rice varietal information is associated with varietal replacement farnworth et al., 2017 low-emission development (led), alternative wetting and drying (awd) water-saving technology conceptual model development case study improved benefits for overall contribution on ghg emission was lowered while improving farmer benefit. women have higher access to awd technology. palis et al., 2017 awd technology qualitative and quantitative (fgd, kii, survey) descriptive analysis the adoption of awd by farmers has not reduced their yields. thus, it has implications on food security through addressing issues around water, while sustaining food production. yorobe et al., 2016 high-yielding green super rice (gsr) cultivars matched samples from a propensity score matching method (twoyear panel data) ordinary least squares and did fixed‐effects regressions yield benefits from gsr varieties could improve rice food security and help alleviate poverty in the country flor et al., 2016 adaptive research (ar) project monitoring data examination complementary qualitative analysis new approaches in agricultural research require a different type of monitoring as a complement to conventional approaches that tend to favor a quantitative assessment of adoption and impact at the farm level. camacho et al., 2016 indigenous knowledge and practices (muyong system) focus group discussions (fgds) and key informant interviews, survey mixed method the proliferation of inorganic farming technologies replaces the traditional ones, and the abandonment of rice fields and muyongs as farmers go elsewhere seeking other employment opportunities. sidhu et al., 2015 rice–wheat (rw) cropping systems, turbo happy seeder for sowing wheat into heavy rice residues development, field testing and evaluation (experiment) quantitative analysis the turbo happy seeder offers a practical and economic solution to the problem of rice straw burning in the rice–wheat systems. corales, sibayan & palis, 2015 natural resource management (nrm) technologies, such as sitespecific nutrient management (ssnm), ecologically based rodent management (ebrm) and alternate wetting and drying (awd) on-farm evaluation cost and yield analysis philrice-irri partnership has been proven to be a powerful instrument in facilitating delivery and adoption of nrm technologies. beltran et al., 2013 adoption of herbicides and the level of herbicide use panel data assessment heckman’s two‐step method (estimation of a random‐effects double‐hurdle model for unbalanced panel data) determinants of both adoption and level are land ownership, farm area, and the method of crop establishment. table 10 continued 23 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 mariano, villano & fleming, 2012 certified seed technology (css) and integrated crop management practices (icmps) probabilistic binary logit and poisson model extension-related variables have the most significant impact on technology adoption. onfarm demonstration trials has the highest effect on the adoption of certified seeds technology. however, constraints to the adoption of css and icmps are soil and nutrient deficiencies. maredia & raitzer, 2012 impact of agricultural research comprehensive search and review of the literature, indepth review, and analysis of documented impacts of agricultural research systematicquantitative analysis evidence of impacts in other areas and other commodities is minor. impacts of research on longterm developmental goals remain undocumented. there is declining trend in total documented net benefits from agricultural research. pascual & bumatay, 2012 locationspecific technology development (lstd) impact assessment case study lstd project was found effective in technology transfer process as manifested by the adoption of the technology by the farmerparticipants. all the interventions were effective. laborte et al., 2012 production technology (cultivars) yield-gap analysis method trend analysis best-yielding farmers were generally more educated than average farmers and they used production inputs more efficiently than average farmers. palis et al., 2011 ecologically based rodent management (ebrm) participatory action research (household surveys, focus group discussions and key informant interviews) quantitativequalitative the adoption of ebrm meant better rice yields, higher economic returns for farmers, and reduced human health and environmental risks mariano, villano & fleming, 2010 irrigated farming ecosystems and rainfed farming systems in rice production stochastic metafrontier productivity-technical efficiency analysis farms in the rainfed farming ecosystem achieve productivity levels only slightly different from those of farms in the irrigated farming ecosystem. some farms in both ecosystems were able to achieve the highest possible output with respect to the meta-frontier in all the seasons studied. wang et al., 2010 improved upland rice varieties and terraces household survey case study farmers who have adopted both technology components have been able to increase the upland rice yield substantially. income from rice production was similarly found to be higher for adopters than for nonadopters. wu et al., 2010 improved upland rice technology impact assessment propensity score matching analysis improved upland rice technology has a robust and positive effect on farmers’ well-being, as measured by income levels and the incidence of poverty table 10 continued 4. conclusions this paper reports the systematic review on the methods used by agricultural researchers in studying rice technology adoption in the philippines and other asian countries. it focused on the specific type of technology studied, the method of analyses, and the major findings of the researches. papers were focused on studying the adoption of rice cultivation practices and technologies using quantitative method. the review highlights the role of institutional factors which is found to mostly influence the decision-making of the farmers to adopt technology. hence, the findings of this review can serve as the basis of agricultural extension professionals in the academe, local government, and the private sector to strengthen the strategies of technology dissemination to the rural rice farmers. rice cultivation technologies and practices are 24 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 the most studied research topics using applied quantitative methods. the adoption of these technologies mainly improved crop management practices and farmers’ capacity and capability which led to increased net income or profit and benefit-cost-ratio. since institutional factors were found to be critical in farmer decision-making, education, access to extension services, and access to technological information related to rice cultivation practices and technologies can be further intensified. conflict of interest there is no conflict of interest. acknowledgement the author is very much grateful to the research, development, and extension unit of occidental mindoro state, philippines for the technical support in completing this review article. references [1] mtega, w.p., ngoepe, m., dube, l., 2016. factors influencing access to agricultural knowledge: the case of smallholder rice farmers in the kilombero district of tanzania. south african journal of information management. 18(1), 1-8. [2] matsumoto, t., yamano, t., sserunkuuma, d., 2013. technology adoption and dissemination in agriculture: evidence from sequential intervention in maize production in uganda. national graduate institute for policy studies discussion paper. 13(14), 1-59. [3] kinuthia, b.k., mabaya, e., 2017. staars-policy brief-the impact of agriculture technology adoption on farmers in east africa. international development research centre (idrc). partnership for economic policy. [4] challa, m., tilahun, u., 2014. determinants and impacts of modern agricultural technology adoption in west wollega: the case of gulliso district. journal of biology, agriculture and healthcare. 4(20), 63-77. [5] antolini, l.s., scare, r.f., dias, a., 2015. adoption of precision agriculture technologies by farmers: a systematic literature review and proposition of an integrated conceptual framework. university of são paulo school of business, economy and accounting of ribeirão preto. [6] tey, y.s., brindal, m., 2012. factors influencing the adoption of precision agricultural technologies: a review for policy implications. precision agriculture. 13, 713-730. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11119-012-9273-6 [7] galina, c.s., turnbull, f., noguez-ortiz, a., 2016. factors affecting technology adoption in small community farmers in relation to reproductive events in tropical cattle raised under dual purpose systems. open journal of veterinary medicine. vi(1). [8] simtowe, f., kassie, m., diagne, a., et al., 2011. determinants of agricultural technology adoption: the case of improved pigeonpea varieties in tanzania. quarterly journal of international agriculture. 50(4), 325-345. [9] olum, s., gellynck, x., ongeng, d., et al., 2018. farmers’ adoption of agricultural innovations: a systematic review on willing to pay studies. ugent biblio universiteit gent. [10] moher, d., liberati, a., tetzlaff, j., et al., 2009. preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses: the prisma statement. plos med. 6(7), e1000097. doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000097 [11] philippine rice research institute, 2013. region ivb rice industry primer series. science city of munoz, nueva ecija: philippine rice research institute. [12] irri. (n.d.). rice knowledge bank. retrieved from knowledgebank.irri: http://www.knowledgebank. irri.org/decision-tools/rice-doctor/rice-doctor-fact sheets/item/seed-high-rate. [13] mariano, m.j., villano, r., fleming, e., 2012. factors influencing farmers’ adoption of modern rice technologies and good management practices in the philippines. agricultural systems. 105(1), 41-53. http://www.knowledgebank.irri.org/decision-tools/rice-doctor/rice-doctor-factsheets/item/seed-high-rate. http://www.knowledgebank.irri.org/decision-tools/rice-doctor/rice-doctor-factsheets/item/seed-high-rate. 13 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: biswajit mondal, icar-national rice research institute (nrri), cuttack, odisha, india; email: bisumondal@rediffmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i3.560 received: 19 june 2022; received in revised form: 11 july 2022; accepted: 19 july 2022; published: 5 august 2022 citation: kumar, p., handral, a.r., mondal, b., yadav, r.k., anbukkani, p., 2022. economics of pulse production in bundelkhand region of uttar pradesh, india: an empirical analysis. research on world agricultural economy. 3(3), 560. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i3.560 research article economics of pulse production in bundelkhand region of uttar pradesh, india: an empirical analysis prabhakar kumar1 ankhila r handral1 biswajit mondal2* r.k. yadav3 p. anbukkani1 1. division of agricultural economics, icar-indian agricultural research institute, new delhi, india 2. icar-national rice research institute (nrri), cuttack, odisha, india 3. college of agriculture, lakhimpur kheri campus, c.s. azad university of agriculture & technology, kanpur, india abstract: bundelkhand region contributes more than half of total pulse area of the uttar pradesh state but the productivity is below the state average, which calls for various technological interventions, development of infrastructure and marketing strategies. this study assessed the profitability of pulse cultivation, identified the constraints and suggested policy measures using the data collected during 2016-2017 from 100 pulse growers selected from two backward districts of bundelkhand region, namely jalaun and hamirpur. growth in area, production and yield was estimated using data for 1980-2015 through compound annual growth rate and the highest growth was observed during 1980-1990 period. modern cost concepts were used to assess the profitability of pulse cultivation and results revealed that the cost of cultivation per hectare was significantly higher in pigeon pea in comparison to gram, pea and lentil crops. the marketing charges paid by the village trader, wholesaler and retailer ranged between inr 20 to inr 40 per quintal for different crops. it was also observed that the quantum of marketable surplus and its percentage share to total production in pigeon pea, gram and lentil increased with the increase in size of land holding. the pulse production in the region faced with constraints related to production, processing and marketing. hence, technologies and infrastructure need to be embraced through suitable policies to favour farmers, so as to maintain balance and keep the interest of both producers and the consumers. keywords: bundelkhand; cost of cultivation; marketable surplus; pulse production 1. introduction among the total agricultural crops grown in india, pulses are most important being a major source of protein to the majority of the people in the country, especially those lives on a vegetarian diet and remains a very important crop group from the perspective of nutrition as well as environmental sustainability [1,2]. they are rich in complex carbohydrates, micronutrients, protein and b vitamins; low in fat and rich in fibre, therefore excellent for managhttp://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i3.560 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9677-4689 14 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 ing cholesterol, digestive health and regulating energy levels [3]. pulses not only have nutritional value for human beings but also contribute fertility to the soil. in spite of huge nutritive value, per capita availability and consumption is very low, which has been reduced almost half from about 60.7 g/day in 1950-1951 to 48 g/day during 20182019 [4]. the production of total pulses in india is about 23.40 million tonnes, covering an area of about 29.03 million hectares (ha) during 2018-2019 [4], the majority of which fall under rainfed, resource-poor and harsh environment, frequently prone to drought and other abiotic stress condition. the 3rd estimates for 2020-2021 indicate that the total pulse production is 25.58 million tonnes from 29.51 million ha area [5]. to meet the demand of pulses, india is at present importing about 3 million tonnes chickpea, which continues to be the largest consumed and comprising of 45%-50% of the total pulse production of india. major producers of pulses in the country are madhya pradesh (24%), uttar pradesh (16%), maharashtra (14%), rajasthan (6%), andhra pradesh (10%), followed by karnataka (7%), which together share about 77% of total pulses production, while remaining 23% is contributed by gujarat, chhattisgarh, bihar, odisha and jharkhand. india was the world’s largest pulses importer and myanmar, canada and australia are major suppliers of dry peas and kabuli chickpeas to the indian market. uttar pradesh is the second-largest producer of pulses with about 2.8 million tonnes, which accounts for 21.4% of the national production. it continued to record the highest pulses productivity among the major pulses growing states in the country. pigeon pea, mung bean (green gram) and urad bean (black gram) during kharif season and chickpea, lentil and field pea, during rabi season are the important crops with its share of 31.4% of the total area under pulse in the state followed by lentil (21.5%), urad bean/mung bean (16.5%), pigeon pea (14.1%) and field pea (10.1%) [6]. during the year 2018-2019, the area under pulse was 2.30 million ha, production was 2.40 million tonnes and productivity recorded at 1044 kg/ha [7]. agro-climate zone wise information indicated that the bundelkhand zone shares maximum area under major pulses (44.5%) followed by central plain zone (20.5%). these two zones together share 65% area under pulses in the state [8]. the northeastern plain zones also share considerable acreage under pigeon pea and lentil. looking at the productivity of individual pulse crop, it reveals that in the case of urad bean and mung bean, the mid-western plain and western plain zones have the highest productivity of 5.5 q/ha and 5.8 q/ha, respectively, however, the bundelkhand zone with considerable area possesses lower average yield (1.3 q/ha and 2.6 q/ha). for pulse crop against the state average of 5.3 q/ha and 5.5 q/ha in the case of lentil, bundelkhand zone possesses the highest acreage as well as productivity (10.1 q/ha) [6]. bundelkhand region is the central semi-arid plateau of india that spans over about 7.1 million ha area. the region covers 14 districts comprising jhansi, jalaun, lalitpur, hamirpur, mahoba, banda and chitrakoot of uttar pradesh and, newari, datia, tikamgarh, chattarpur damoh, sagar and panna district in madhya pradesh state. the region is complex, rainfed, risky, under invested, vulnerable, socioeconomical heterogeneous, ethically unique, agrarian and backward [9,10]. among all the nine agro-climatic zones of uttar pradesh state, bundelkhand region of uttar pradesh has the lowest average annual household income [11] and lowest livelihood security [12]. bundelkhand region suffers from water scarcity, natural resource degradation, low crop productivity (1 q/ha ~ 1.5 q/ha), low rainwater use efficiency (35%–45%), high erosion, poor soil fertility, frequent droughts, poor irrigation facilities, inadequate vegetation cover and frequent crop failure resulting in scarcity of food, fodder and fuel [13,14]. the region experiences extremes of temperature, varying from more than 45 °c during summers to about one degree centigrade in winters and receives average 800 mm-900 mm annual rainfall. the occurrence and distribution of rains however have no definite pattern rendering farmers unprepared for timely crop sowing and almost every year they faced the problem of drought even during good rainfall year [15]. a declining and irregular trend of annual rainfall and a gradual drying up of the region has emerged as a challenge to sustain crop yield in the region [16]. droughts, short-term rain and flooding in fields add to the uncertainties. based on the composite drought hazard analysis, eight districts of bundelkhand region are under severe to moderate drought vulnerability [17]. bundelkhand region contributes 8.4% (1377 tonnes) of total pulse production in the country. the contribution of the region to total area and production of crops like field pea, lentil and urad bean is highly significant as it contributes about 43%, 16% and 11.5% of total national production of field pea, urad bean and lentil in the country. the overall productivity level of pulses in the region (677 kg/ha) was slightly higher than national average (655 kg/ha), the yield levels of field pea, chickpea and lentil crops were also higher as compared to the national average (2015-2016). among the major pulse crop growing in the bundelkhand region are pigeon pea, mung bean & urad bean in kharif season and gram, pea, lentil in rabi season. gram is the most important pulse crop in the bundelkhand region followed by urad, lentil, pea and mung bean. 15 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 keeping in view the importance of pulse production in the bundelkhand region of uttar pradesh, this study has been conducted to estimate pulse production status and growth rates and make an objective assessment in terms of cropping pattern, cost & returns, market intermediaries and marketed surplus as well as identify the constraints in production and marketing of major pulses in the region. 2. material and methods 2.1 area and data the study used both secondary and primary data to achieve the objectives. secondary data were collected from published sources of government departments. for collection of primary data, a multi-stage sampling technique was adopted to choose the study units, i.e. farmer respondents. bundelkhand region was selected purposively as cropping pattern in the region is dominated by pulse crops. bundelkhand region comprised of two-divisions, viz. jhansi and chitrakoot dham. at the first stage, one district has been selected from each division, namely jalaun from jhansi division and hamirpur from chitrakoot dham division on the basis of higher area and production of pulses. at second stage, one block from each district has been selected randomly, in which kadoura block from jalaun district and kurara block from hamirpur district got selected. third stage of sampling comprised of selection of 5 villages from each block and a total of 10 villages from the selected blocks were chosen randomly for the study. from the universe of selected 10 villages, a list of all those farmers i.e. pulses growers have been prepared and thereafter a total of 100 respondent/pulse growers have been selected randomly. again these respondents have been categorized in four groups based on land holding size i.e. marginal (0 ha ~ 1 ha), small (1 ha ~ 2 ha), medium (2 ha ~ 4 ha) and large (4 ha and above). primary data were collected from each respondent by personal interview using a structured interview schedule regarding farmer and farm details, cultivation practices, input used, output marketed and returns received. the number of selected cultivators from selected villages under each size groups has been presented in table 1. 2.2 analytical techniques 2.2.1 estimation of growth rates data on area, production and yield collected for the period of 1980 to 2015 were grouped into 3 periods, viz. 1980-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2015 and compound annual growth rate (cagr) was calculated separately for each period. 2.2.2 estimation of costs and returns costs of cultivation were also estimated using other cost concepts [18] that are widely adopted in farm management research [19]. the concepts used were: (i) cost a= all variable expenses incurred to procure the material inputs and expenditure on hired labour, all types of machine labour and including land revenue, depreciation and interest on operational expenses, land (leased in) rent paid, (iii) cost b= cost a + interest on value of permanent assets and imputed rent of owned land, (v) cost c= cost b + imputed value of family labour. on the similar line, income table 1. description of selected villages and number of farmers in different size group s. no. name of the district name of the blocks name of the selected villages number of cultivators selected in different size groups totalsize-groups (ha) 0-1 1-2 2-4 4 & above a. 1. hamirpur kurara deviganj 5 3 2 1 11 2. jalla 6 2 2 1 11 3. para 4 3 1 2 10 4. jakhela 3 2 3 2 10 5. beri 4 3 2 1 10 b. 1. jalaun kadoura udanpur 4 2 2 2 10 2. chatela 3 3 2 1 09 3. bugi 5 3 1 1 10 4. babina 3 2 2 2 09 5. sujanpur 4 4 1 1 10 total 41 27 18 14 100 16 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 concepts used were as: (i) gross return = total value of the produce (main product and by product), (ii) net income = gross return cost c, (iii) family labour income = gross return – cost b, and (v) farm business income = gross return – cost a. cost c includes all the possible costs and is considered as the real cost of production in a farm situation. but rental value of owned land and managerial costs for the farmer can be excluded in a marginal profit situation and cost a can be taken as the standard cost of production which includes all actual expenses expressed in cash and kind, the depreciation and interest on value of owned capital assets (excluding land) [19]. similarly, if we want to calculate the income over family labour, we can consider cost b or subtract the value of family labour from cost c. 2.2.3 estimation of marketable surplus marketable surplus refers to the quantity of produce available for disposal through markets after fulfilling all consumption requirements. in this study, the marketable surplus was estimated by subtracting requirements for consumptions, seeds from the total production of pulses. 3. result and discussion 3.1 production and growth rates india is the largest producer of chickpea, sharing 65% of global production [20]. the production of pulses in india during 2015-2016 is shown in table 2. it is evident that chickpea occupies a major share (46.68%) in total pulse production in india followed by red gram, mung (green gram), urad (black gram) and others. table 2. share of different pulses production in india [21] pulse crop production (2015-2016) (’000 tonnes) share in total production (%) red gram 2550 14.71 chickpea 8090 46.68 urad (black gram) 1740 8.94 mung (green gram) 1550 10.04 other pulses 3400 19.62 total pulses 17330 100 the estimated growth rates of red gram, chickpea, kharif and rabi pulses with respect to area, production and yield for the periods 1980-1990, 1991-2000 and 20012015 are given in table 3. the period-wise analysis revealed that the maximum growth rate in the area for all pulses, except chickpea was observed during 1980-1990 in comparison to other periods. the overall growth rate in the area for all pulses was also highest (6.12%) during the period 1980-1990 and there was a negative growth rate for the next decade (1991-2000) and a positive growth rate to the extent of 1.12% during the period 2001-2015. further crop-wise analysis of the growth rate in area of kharif pulses was observed to be high in 1980-1990 and it increased at the rate of nearly 8.08% per annum. against this, the area under the same crop during the period 19912000 declined at a maximum rate of 8.26% per annum and a negative growth rate was observed during 2001-2015 (–0.25% per annum). in the case of chickpea, growth rate table 3. compound annual growth rate of pulses all india crop items 1980-1990 1991-2000 2001-2015 red gram area 2.3 2.3 –2.5 production 2.80 5.40 –1.73 yield 0.55 1.60 1.04 chickpea area –1.5 17.42 5.36 production –0.8 10.01 5.82 yield 0.74 1.68 1.77 kharif pulses area 8.08 –8.26 –0.25 production 8.67 –6.55 2.05 yield 0.55 1.87 2.30 rabi pulses area 4.32 –4.75 2.32 production 5.50 –3.15 4.22 yield 1.13 1.68 1.86 total pulses area 6.12 –6.49 1.12 production 6.74 –4.48 3.45 yield 0.58 2.15 2.30 source: author’s calculations 17 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 in area was observed to be high (17.42%) during 19912000 and the growth rate declined to one-third (5.36%) during 2001-2015, while the negative growth rate was observed for the same crop during 1980-1990. the growth rate in the area in case of red gram was observed to be the same (2.3%) in the period 1980-1990 & 1991-2000 and it declined at a rate of nearly 2.5% per annum during 20012015. the growth rate in the production of different pulses in different periods shows that maximum growth has been exhibited by chickpea which was 10.01% per annum followed by red gram (6.3%) during 1991-2000. during the period 1980-1990, the growth rate of production of all pulses was positive except chickpea. the growth rate in production of total pulses was 3.4% during the period 2001-2015. the table 4 showed that the average size of farms, which was 2.18 ha. the number of farmers in the marginal size category (0 ha ~ 1 ha) accounted for 41% of the total number of sample farms, commanding only 11.11% of the total cultivated area, whereas, the farmers of the largest size group (4 ha and above) accounted for only 14% of the total number of holdings but commanded as much as 42.50% of the total cultivated area. this indicated the uneven distribution of cultivated land among the farmers of different size groups. 3.2 cropping pattern in uttar pradesh, the chitrakoot dham region is famous for pulse production, where production takes place under rainfed condition due to lack of irrigation facilities and typical physiography. chitrakoot dham accounts for 18.11% of the total area and 25.67% of the total production of the state. the productivity of pulses in this region was higher in the state being 8.76 q/ha as against 8.08 q/ha of the state average during 2012-2013. however, the pulse production in the state as well as in the area did not show any appreciable increase for the last fifty years, rather it has been declined. the growth of pulse production in the state was (–) 0.11% per annum, while it was 0.62% per annum in chitrakoot dham and (+) 2.71% per annum in banda district. table 5 indicates that on an average, gram occupied the highest area (20.70%) to the total cropped area followed by wheat (20.18%), jowar + pigeonpea (16.92%), lentil (12.15%), pea (10.14%), pigeon pea (9.93%), jowar (6.99%), mung (4.88%), urad (4.19%), linseed and mustard (6.30%) and others (4.50%). with regard to the size groups for individual pulse crops, it is to be noted that large farmers put higher proportion of cropped area to gram, pea and urad, whereas for linseed-mustard, pigeon pea and other crops, area decreased with increase in holding size. for the crops like lentil, wheat and jowar, no such trend was observed. table 6 presented the production, costs and returns of pulse crops from per unit area in the region. it is observed that the cost of cultivation was highest for pigeon pea to the extent of rs. 20675 and the lowest was for lentil (rs. 18161). however, due to higher yield level, per quintal production expenses were lower in case of gram and pea in comparison to pigeon pea and lentil. due to higher selling price of pigeon pea, gross return was sufficiently high than other pulses. on estimation of various categories of costs, it was observed that though cost c per ha was highest for pigeon pea, cost a & b per ha was highest for gram followed by pigeon pea, pea and lentil. with regard to various types of income per ha, again pigeon pea recorded the highest income and highest benefit-cost ration in comparison to other pulses. from the above results, it can be concluded that pigeon pea crop is the most economical and profitable pulse crop having a higher benefit-cost ratio followed by gram than that of lentil and pea crops and recommendation can be made to put more emphasis toward their cultivation in the study region. table 4. distribution of farms under different size groups sl. no. size group (ha) no. of farmer cultivated area (ha) % age of total cultivated area average size of holdings (ha) 1. 0-1 41 24.19 11.11 0.59 2. 1-2 27 36.18 16.61 1.34 3. 2-4 18 64.80 29.78 3.60 4. 4 & above 14 92.55 42.50 6.61 total 100 217.77 100.00 2.18 source: author’s calculations 18 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 table 5. cropping pattern on the sample farms of different sizes (area in ha) sl. no. crops size groups (in ha) total area 0-1 1-2 2-4 4 & above rabi 1. gram 4.79 (16.67) 7.53 (16.91) 17.99 (21.89) 26.62 (22.42) 56.75 (20.70) 2. lentil 3.57 (12.43) 6.39 (14.35) 8.46 (10.29) 14.71 (12.39) 33.31 (12.15) 3. pea 2.33 (8.11) 4.34 (9.72) 8.73 (9.83) 12.42 (10.46) 27.81 (10.14) 4. linseed & mustard 2.14 (7.48) 3.26 (7.32) 5.59 (6.80) 6.28 (5.28) 17.28 (6.30) 5. wheat 5.81 (20.22) 8.19 (18.40) 17.66 (21.48) 23.67 (19.94) 55.33 (20.18) 6. pigeon pea 3.53 (12.29) 5.24 (11.77) 8.05 (9.79) 10.41 (8.76) 27.23 (9.93) kharif 7. mung bean 1.89 (6.58) 2.18 (4.89) 3.67 (4.46) 5.65 (4.75) 13.39 (4.88) 8. urad bean 0.96 (3.34) 1.69 (3.79) 3.17 (3.85) 5.67 (4.77) 11.49 (4.19) 9. jowar 1.26 (4.38) 3.17 (7.12) 6.18 (7.52) 8.57 (7.21) 19.18 (6.99) 10. others 1.98 (6.89) 2.53 (5.68) 3.33 (4.05) 4.52 (3.41) 12.36 (4.50) total cropped area 28.72 44.51 82.18 118.72 274.13 note: figure in parenthesis show the percentage to their respective total table 6. costs and returns of pulse crops in bundelkhand region particulars crops gram pigeon pea lentil pea cost of cultivation (’000 rupees/ha) 20.55 20.68 18.16 20.28 yield per hectare (q/ha) 12.70 9.71 9.66 12.47 price per quintal (’000 rupees) 2.34 3.61 2.51 2.23 total value of output (’000 rupees/ha) 33.41 38.03 27.15 30.09 cost of production (’000 rupees/q) 1.62 2.13 1.68 1.50 various categories of costs (’000 rupees/ha) (a) cost a 11.14 10.45 9.86 10.18 (b) cost b 14.58 13.89 13.30 13.62 (c) cost c 20.55 20.68 18.16 20.28 the measure of farm profit (’000 rupees/ha) farm business income (over cost a) 22.28 27.58 17.29 19.91 family labour income (over cost b) 18.83 24.14 13.85 16.47 net income (over cost c) 12.87 17.35 8.99 9.81 benefit-cost ratio 1.62:1 1.83:1 1.49:1 1.48:1 source: author’s calculations 19 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 3.3 marketing charges the marketing charges paid by the village trader, wholesaler and retailer in the marketing of gram, pigeon pea, lentil and pea were worked out at rs. 40, rs. 26 and rs. 20 per quintals, respectively. total marketing charges paid by different marketing middlemen were observed to be rs. 86, spread over the consumer’s price for the crops gram, pigeon pea, lentil and pea has been shown in table 7. the sale price received by the producer was the highest being rs. 3610 per quintal for pigeon pea, rs. 2510 per quintal for lentil, rs. 2335 per quintal for gram and rs. 2230 per quintal for pea. the purchase price of consumers came to rs. 2440, rs.3763, rs.2629 and rs. 2324 per quintal of gram, pigeon pea, lentil and pea, respectively. there were different intermediaries, viz. village traders, wholesalers and retailers who incurred market expenses to the extent of rs. 40, rs. 26 and rs. 20, respectively. among the pulses, price spread and market margins were highest in case of pigeon pea followed by lentil, gram and pea. producer’s share in consumer’s rupee was calculated, which was almost similar for all the pulse crops indicating similar margin for the farmers. table 7. marketing charges, producer’s share and margins of intermediaries s. no. particulars gram pigeon pea lentil pea 1. sale price by producer (rs.) 2335 3610 2510 2230 2. consumer’s price (rs.) 2440 3763 2629 2324 3. price spread (rs.) 105 153 119 94 4 market charges (rs.)# $ 86 86 86 86 5 market margins (rs.)# 19 67 33 8 6 producer’s share in consumer’s rupee (%) 95.70 95.93 95.47 95.96 #total for all intermediaries; $market charges for village traders, wholesalers and retailers were rs.40, rs.26 and rs.20, respectively. source: author’s calculations 3.4 marketable surplus in rural areas, family sizes remain almost similar, hence, lower production owing from less cropped area led to low quantum of marketable surplus of gram, pigeon pea, lentil and pea and their percentage to the total production on the farms of lower size group as compared to the large sized farms (table 8). it is observed that the quantum of pulses consumed was highest is gram, as it is a good source of energy, protein, minerals, vitamins, fiber, and also contains potentially health-beneficial phytochemicals [22]. the quantity utilized per household for all purposes comprising seed, consumption, wages and others were also highest in case of gram followed by pea, pigeon pea and lentil. the amount of marketable surplus was highest in case of pea followed by gram, lentil and pigeon pea. however, when we calculated marketed surplus as percentage of quantity produced, again it was observed to be highest for pea followed by lentil, pigeon pea and gram. table 8. marketable surplus of pulse grains (per household) sl. no. particular gram pigeon pea lentil pea 1 total quantity produced (q) 12.70 (100.00) 9.71 (100.00) 9.66 (100.00) 12.47 (100.00) 2 quantity retained for seed (q) 0.87 (6.85) 0.55 (5.66) 0.56 (5.79) 0.96 (7.69) 3 quantity consumed by family (q) 0.98 (7.71) 0.87 (8.95) 0.76 (7.86) 0.57 (4.57) 4 the quantity given as wages (q) 0.70 (5.51) 0.74 (0.74) 0.65 (6.72) 0.83 (6.65) 5 others (q) 0.66 (5.19) 0.37 (3.81) 0.45 (4.65) 0.51 (4.08) 6 total quantity utilized (q) 3.22 (25.35) 2.54 (26.15) 2.41 (24.94) 2.88 (23.09) 7 marketable surplus (1-6) 9.49 (74.72) 7.17 (73.84) 7.24 (74.94) 9.59 (76.90) note: figures in brackets indicates per cent of total quantity produced source: author’s calculations 4. constraints in cultivation of pulses in bundelkhand region 4.1 constraints in production non-availability of high yielding pulse varieties, in general, have poor harvest index (hi). improvement in the hi in cereal crops in recent years has resulted in very high yields. in pulses, the hi ranges from 10 to 20 as compared to 40 and above in wheat. mixed cropping of pulses with other crops is an important agronomic practice in the bundelkhand area of the state. here we could have two 20 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 situations (i) the pulse crop completes its life-cycle before the second crop enters the active growth phase, or (ii) the pulse crop enters the active phase of growth only after the subsidiary crop has completed its life-cycle. although, a number of improved varieties of different pulse crops have been recommended, yet they have not become popular among the farmers in the study area mainly due to lack of a systematic seed multiplication and distribution program. adequate plant population makes a big difference in yield. farmers in the study area generally do not follow the recommended seed rate, which causes low yields. 4.2 constraints in marketing during the course of the investigation, the following market problems were ascertained in different regulated mandis in the study area. when the farmer reached in the market, they had to arrange with the kaccha arhatia (commission agents) for the sale of produce. kaccha arhatias though employed by the producer, but they remained more inclined towards the buyer and favored them at the expense of producers. more number of intermediaries in marketing channel reduces the producers’ share in consumers’ price. there was common practice that after settlement of price and during the time of weighing, the buyer complained of the quality of product and levied some refraction charges in spite of the price was settled on the basis of a sample. 4.3 constraints in processing the present-day processing technologies use direct solar energy for drying in large open yards. in order to loosen the husk, prolonged sun drying is essential for all pulses, pigeon pea, black gram and green gram. the conversion of grains into dal become difficult to mill mainly during the summer months, whereas pulses that are easy to dehusk are processed in other seasons. this limitation restricts milling and production schedules. the cost and time taken for processing of pulses in these units were about 2-3 times higher when compared to the traditional units. the time interval between each step and natural splitting of grains produces good quality dal and improves dal recovery and increases keeping quality of dal, which fetches them a better price for their products. 5. conclusions it can be concluded that pigeon pea crop is the most economical and profitable crop having a higher benefitcost ratio and contributing higher return than that of gram, lentil and pea crops under study. in fact, pulses can be profitably cultivated in rice fallows in the post rainy season, which also contributes in saving n fertilizer and increased the yield of subsequent cereal crops, thus decline the cost of production. therefore, it is recommended that more emphasis should be given towards the cultivation of pigeon pea and gram than other pulse crops. moreover, it was observed that gross income, net income per ha and the benefit-cost ratio was significantly higher on pigeon pea as compared to gram, lentil and pea crops. further, lower or higher producer’s share cannot be considered as a true indicator of an efficient marketing system. efficient marketing system is one in which both the producers and consumers are well satisfied, benefited and protected from the clutches of the marketing functionaries and middlemen on the one hand and the consumers are in position to get the product according to their preference and quality. the government should take necessary steps in the regulation of laws of regulated markets, control on the processor, wholesaler and retailer in the interest of both producers and consumers. author contributions all authors contributed equally. funding this research received no external funding. data availability data based on which this research was conducted can be accessed by contacting the corresponding author through sending emails at the address provided on the title page. conflicts of interest the author declares that there is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this paper. references [1] alexandratos, n., bruinsma, j., 2012. world agriculture towards 2030/2050 (esa working paper no. 12–03). rome: fao. 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[22] wood, j.a., grusak, m.a., yadav, s.s., et al., 2007. nutritional value of chickpea. chickpea breeding and management, cab international, wallingford. pp. 101-142. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781845932138.005 https://scholar.google.co.in/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=ilykdjoaaaaj&cstart=20&pagesize=80&alert_preview_top_rm=2&citation_for_view=ilykdjoaaaaj:qiv2me_5wuyc https://scholar.google.co.in/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=ilykdjoaaaaj&cstart=20&pagesize=80&alert_preview_top_rm=2&citation_for_view=ilykdjoaaaaj:qiv2me_5wuyc https://scholar.google.co.in/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=ilykdjoaaaaj&cstart=20&pagesize=80&alert_preview_top_rm=2&citation_for_view=ilykdjoaaaaj:qiv2me_5wuyc https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2015.1060195 https://arccjournals.com/journal/legume-research-an-international-journal/lr-4518 https://doi.org/10.2175/106143017x14902968254700 https://doi.org/10.2175/106143017x14902968254700 http://eands.dacnet.nic.in 33 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: zechariahs benapugha owutuamor, department of applied economics and marketing, university of reading, reading, uk email: ilsignorzax@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.496 received: 28 february 2022; received in revised form: 27 march 2022; accepted: 29 march 2022; published: 31 march 2022 citation: ukwuaba, i.c., owutuamor, z.b., chiemela, s.n., et al., 2022. unravelling the drivers of plantain marketing in enugu state, nigeria. research on world agricultural economy. 3(1), 496. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/ rwae.v3i1.496 research article unravelling the drivers of plantain marketing in enugu state, nigeria ikenna charles ukwuaba1 zechariahs benapugha owutuamor2* stella nwawulu chiemela1 chikaosolu maryqueen ileka1 ifeyinwa cynthia ukwuaba1 1. department of agricultural economics, university of nigeria nsukka, enugu state, nigeria 2. department of applied economics and marketing, university of reading, reading, uk abstract: plantain marketing offers great profit-making, yet it is unclear if this has translated to more profits, making it imperative to examine the drivers of plantain marketing. primary data collected with structured questionnaire in purposive 2-staged random sampling were analyzed using net marketing income, marketing margin, marketing efficiency and multiple linear regression models. plantain marketing was mainly done by married educated women, averaged 40 years of age, belonging to households averaging 6 persons. net monthly profit of $63.51 (₦26,050.38), average marketing margin of 30.84% and marketing efficiency of 35.06% were returned. suggesting plantain marketing is profitable and viable but largely inefficient. cost of plantain and marketing experience were positively significant (p≤0.05). plantain marketing faced constraints like seasonality of plantain, inadequate finance, price fluctuations, high transportation costs, bulkiness, spoilage/breakage and high plantain costs. plantain marketers should form/join cooperatives to obtain low-interest loans, mitigate marketing costs and enjoy economies of scale. keywords: cost and returns; marketing efficiency; marketing margin; multiple regression; plantain 1. introduction in recent times, there have been agricultural reform campaigns propelled by global food and financial crisis. just like every other developing country, nigeria too, is engrossed in this global crusade to improve agricultural production and efficiency in marketing. agriculture involves the production of commodities (goods and services) and until these commodities reach the final consumer, production is yet to be complete, thus the essence of marketing being fundamental in agriculture [1]. efficient marketing systems are vitally important for any economy under all conditions and at every stage in its development [2]. as marketing channels used by farmers to sell the outputs of their production play important roles in their productivity [3]. this perhaps is due to the specific nature (perishability and level of processing) of agricultural production and its products, in particular, complex transportation and storage problems require a greater number of intermediaries in http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.496 34 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 their movement from producers to consumers [4]. so, the ultimate aim of the producer, which is to get rewards, irrespective of the channels used to market the products that are targeted at turning potential customers into profitable customers is achieved, this is one of the key roles of marketing channels [5]. lack of knowledge on the marketing of some crops such as plantain and their products partly leads to the inherent poor agricultural commodity marketing in nigeria. hence, there is a need for efficient marketing channels and systems. plantain is well consumed in enugu state and thus has a large market, especially in the city centres and semiurban areas such as nsukka local government area (lga). nsukka lga, in itself has large market centres, operating daily or every four days. agricultural products such as banana, plantain, vegetables, pepper, mangoes, palm oil, honey, yam, livestock and other fruits are commonly traded in those markets [6,7]. in the area, banana and plantain are mostly cultivated mixed with other plants, as backyard crops in compound farms, where farmers usually have less than 50 stands, with a greater proportion of them growing more banana than plantain [8]. however, banana and plantain marketing are most prominent among women, especially within nsukka urban, and the neighbouring communities. the sale of banana and plantain provides means of livelihood for many households in the area, hence, its decentralization, as both wholesalers and retailers purchase their commodities directly from the producers [9]. in urban centres, the wholesalers sell to the retailers who in turn resell smaller quantities to the ultimate consumers. poor post-harvest handling practices, amongst other problems, has been militating against agricultural production in nigeria, observing that the problem of productivity is further compounded by poor storage and marketing, thus, aggravating loss of quality and quantity, hence, affecting the final price of agricultural commodities [10]. plantain is seasonal and its shelf life is relatively short; hence, its availability is for limited periods of time, thereby incurring very high post-harvest losses [8,11-14] and studies on plantain marketing have shown that plantain fruits are subjected to adverse conditions during handling and transportation [15,16]. a lot of marketing problems determining whether to expand production or not affect the plantain business [17]. the marketing of plantain is very difficult because of the dispersal of the production zones, the lack or poor conditions of the lines of communication with urban consumption centres and the irregular supply in the market by wholesalers and middlemen who set the prices. it is insufficient for policymakers to focus on solving production-related problems alone, because even if production eventually becomes adequate, marketable and marketed surplus may not be enough and reliable [18]. that is to say, to increase food production, it becomes imperative to evolve a more efficient marketing system, in which marketing information makes it easy to transmit prices from one market to another, as such, synchronizing prices. venturing into plantain enterprise holds promising potentials, however, there is a little study to back up marketing of plantain within nsukka lga, as the relatively little attention given to plantain in this study area focused on its production technology (characterization, correlation, path analysis and selection indices of musa genotypes under different conditions) [11-14]. increasing output (production) without correspondingly increasing marketing may bring about resource wastage and as such, people may continue to wallow in poverty and food insecurity [19]. a related study centering on banana and plantain marketing activities by women in the nsukka urban area, specifically dwelt on the decision-making role, the pattern of marketing among the women and their constraints in marketing the products [13]. also, the research carried out on plantain and banana marketing in enugu state centered on examining the structure of plantain and banana marketing, identifying banana and plantain marketing channels, estimating banana and plantain marketing margins at the retail and wholesale levels, estimating the rate of price transmission and the extent of market integration among banana and plantain markets [9]. however, despite the contributions of plantain marketing to the livelihood survival of most marketers, there is little study conducted to identify the drivers of the enterprise. this gap in literature necessitated a comprehensive study on the determinants of plantain marketing, so as to promote speedy sales, reduce losses and enhance profits and improve the efficiency of its marketing system. the broad objective of the study is to unravel the drivers of plantain marketing in nsukka local government area (lga) of enugu state, nigeria. specifically, the work described the socioeconomic characteristics of plantain marketers; determined the cost and returns on plantain marketing; determined the drivers of net marketing returns of plantain; estimated the marketing margin and efficiency of plantain marketers and identified the constraints to plantain marketing in the study area. 2. methodology 2.1 the study area the study was carried out in nsukka lga of enugu state, nigeria. an area that lies between latitudes 6°51ʹn 35 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 and 6.85°n of the equator and longitudes 7°23ʹe and 7.39°e of the greenwich meridian [20]. it has a land area of about 1,810 square kilometres and a population of about 309,633 and comprised of 16 communities [21]. nsukka is situated in the derived savannah belt and has two main seasons; the rainy and dry seasons, with a total annual rainfall that ranges from 1500 mm to 1600 mm, while the average temperature is 27 °c [22]. the inhabitants are mainly subsistence farmers and traders. the crops grown and marketed in the area include, but not limited to plantain, cassava, yam, maize, vegetables and different varieties of fruits. there are many markets in the study area such as ogige, orie orba, nkwo okutu, orie okpuje, afor opi, eha-alumona, eke ede-oballa and ikpa commodity markets. 2.2 data collection primary data were collected with the aid of a wellstructured questionnaire. a modified purposive multistage (two-staged) simple random sampling technique was used; in the first stage, four markets with a large concentration of plantain marketers were purposely selected. the markets selected were ogige, afor opi, orie okpuje and eha-alumona markets. in the second stage, a list of plantain marketers was drawn from each of the selected markets and a simple random sampling technique was used to select 30 plantain marketers from each market, making a total of 120 respondents as sample size. data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics, net marketing income, net marketing margin, marketing efficiency index and multiple linear regression model. the scope of this study is limited to the activities of plantain marketers who do business daily in the four markets sampled. data collected were on socioeconomic characteristics, marketing channels, prices, quantities and other associated costs for marketing plantain. however, certain limitations were encountered, especially in the aspect of data collection. many respondents were afraid of responding, thinking that their responses would be used to make tax assessments. but, repeated assurances, backed with identity cards made them believe that the questionnaires had nothing to do with taxing agencies, thus eliciting their responses. another challenge faced was that of time. most of the respondents complained that their time is being wasted in answering questions, so the field officers compensated for that by buying some of their merchandise to encourage them. to check for consistency of responses, the researchers employed the internal consistency method, by repeating certain questions in another way in other sections of the questionnaire. 2.3 data analyses 2.3.1 net marketing income the difference between the total sales of plantain and the total marketing costs per month was used to represent net income. total marketing cost embodies summing up the costs of the produce, along with that of transportation, storage, handling, and other associated costs involved in moving the commodity from the point of purchase to the customer, together with the depreciation of marketing equipment used in the process (see equation 1). (1) where π is net marketing income, tr is total revenue, given by price per quantity and tc is total cost. the total cost component, tc is derived from the formula in equation (2). (2) where tvc is total variable cost and tfc is total fixed cost. the straight-line method given by the formula in equation (3) was used to calculate the depreciation of the marketing equipment. (3) where d is the depreciation, p is purchasing price of the equipment, s is salvage value of the equipment and n is the useful life of equipment. 2.3.2 multiple regression model the model was explicitly specified as: (4) where: y = net returns from plantain marketing (n) α = intercept on the y-axis β = coefficients x1 = age of respondents (years) x2 = marketing experience (number of years in plantain marketing) x3 = household size (number) x4 = marital status (married =1, otherwise 0) x5 = number of years spent in school (years) x6 = cost of plantain (₦) x7 = marketing cost (₦) x8 = access to credit (access =1, otherwise 0) ε = stochastic error term the model is specified in its four functional forms thus: linear function: (5) semi-log function: 36 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 (6) double-log function: (7) exponential function: (8) the econometric criteria such as coefficient of multiple determination, number of significant variables, the size of the f-ratio and the standard error were used to select the lead equation from the four functional forms of the multiple regression model. 2.3.3 marketing margin plantain marketing margin (mm) was derived by taking the difference between the average selling and purchase prices of the marketers, that was gotten from the average prices reported by each respondent. like aina et al., (2012) did, the marketing margin was expressed as a percentage in equation (9). (9) 2.3.4 marketing efficiency index the marketing efficiency (me) as applied by nsenelson, oke and adindu (2016) was computed using: (10) marketing output was measured using net marketing returns, while marketing input was measured as total marketing cost. marketing efficiency, then follows as: (11) if me equals one; it is efficient, less than one is inefficient, however, greater than one is said to be highly efficient. 2.3.5 likert scale rating technique a 4-points likert scaling, calibrated as strongly agree (sa), agree (a), disagree (d), and strongly disagree (sd), with values that correspond to 4, 3, 2 and 1 respectively was used. the respondents’ mean score (ms) based on the 4-points scale, was computed with cut-off placed at 2.50. this implies that any mean score below 2.50 (ms<2.50) was insignificant, while those above 2.50 (ms>2.50) were significant and regarded as major constraints. 3. results and discussions 3.1 socio-economic characteristics of the respondents the results as can be seen in table 1, showed that females dominated (95%) the plantain business in the study area. this is in conformity with the findings of other related studies [23-25]. plantain production is dominated by men [26], but then, women play a key role in processing and marketing or perhaps, because women generally prefer selfemployment to either working for other people, private organizations or even the government [27]. similar to another study [28], this study revealed that majority (73.3%) of the plantain marketers were married, suggesting that plantain marketing most probably serves as a reliable source of income for family upkeep. with an average age of 40 years, the study indicated that most (75%) of the respondents were relatively young marketers, who fall within the active years of service (less than 50 years), are tireless, energetic, willing to take risks, full of vigour and can go through the rigours of marketing, thus conforming to findings in a related study [24]. with an average of 6 persons per household, many of the households (55%) however have sizes of 6 members or lower. although this is higher than the reported family size of 5 persons/household [29]. this suggest that the families are averagely normal families within the government recognized family size of 6 persons, which includes father, mother and four children [30]. this is an indication that the families are moderate and not over-laden or overburdened with responsibilities since they are within the officially recommended family size [31]. table 1 further showed that the greater number of marketers (88.3%) have had a minimum of primary school education, in consonance with findings from a similar study [32]. having, at least, basic education could imply better adoption of new ideas and knowledge which will help in taking decisions to improve marketing as well as strategies. the majority of the respondents (66.7%) had gained reasonable experience, of at least 6 years in plantain marketing. this implies that most of the respondents have been marketing plantain long enough to offer reasonable verifiable information about the business. the high proportion of respondents who source their capital from personal savings, may imply that the marketers do not have access to credit facilities or security for loans. this confirms the findings of a similar study which reported that the greatest proportion of plantain marketers (54.7%) sourced their capital from personal savings, while lower proportions (33.3% and 12%) obtained capital from friends and cooperatives respectively [33]. 3.2 cost and returns in plantain marketing the results of the monthly cost and return analyses are presented in table 2. from table 2, net marketing returns of plantain sold 37 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 per month indicated that plantain enterprise was viable. average quantities of plantain sold per month by the marketers were 63 bunches. the average selling price per head of plantain was ₦1,592.83 ($3.88) while the average purchasing price was ₦1,101.66 ($2.69). the mean monthly marketing returns made by the marketers was ₦26,050.38 ($63.51). table 1. socio-economic characteristic of respondents variable frequency percentage (%) mean gender female 114 95 male 6 5 marital status married 88 73.3 single 32 26.7 age 20-30 42 35 40.36 31-40 22 18.3 41-50 26 21.7 50-70 30 25 household size 1-3 8 6.7 6.254-6 58 48.3 7-10 54 45 level of education no formal education 34 28.3 primary 66 55 secondary 14 11.7 tertiary 6 5 marketing experience 1-5 40 33.3 10.36-10 22 18.3 10 & above 58 48.4 source of capital relative/friends 26 21.7 personal savings 78 65 cooperatives 16 13.3 source: computed from field data, 2020 table 2. monthly costs and returns structure of plantain marketing in nsukka market variables amount (₦) ($) revenue (a) 100,348.29 (244.64) variable costs average cost price per bunch 1,101.66 (2.69) cost of plantain 69,404.58 (169.20) handling cost 1,024.45 (2.50) transportation cost 1,204.16 (2.87) storage cost and rent 2,232.32 (5.44) marketing fee 381.17 (0.93) total variable cost (b) 74,246.68 (181.01) fixed cost: depreciated values of trading materials (c) 51.23 (0.12) total marketing cost (b + c = d) 74,297.91 (181.13) net marketing returns (a − d) 26,050.38 (63.51) source: computed from field data, 2020 exchange rate: $1usd = ₦410.19 3.3 mean marketing margin and efficiency of plantain marketers the mean marketing margin of plantain marketers presented in table 3, expressed as a percentage showed that the marketing margin for the marketers was 30.84%. table 3. monthly mean marketing margin and efficiency of plantain marketing mean selling price (₦) mean purchase price (₦) marketing margin (%) 1,592.83 1,101.66 30.84 net marketing returns (₦) total marketing cost (₦) marketing efficiency (%) 26,050.38 74,297.91 35.06 source: field data, 2020. in table 3, the results displayed shows that plantain marketing is viable and a good source of livelihood survival. marketing efficiency of 35.06% (0.35) indicates that the marketing of plantain was not efficient as about 65% of inefficiency existed in the system, implying that 38 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 certain challenges exist in the marketing of plantain in nsukka lga. this result is consistent with another study that examined the performance of watermelon marketing in enugu state, nigeria [34]. 3.4 drivers of net returns in plantain marketing regression results displayed in table 4 show the drivers of the net income of plantain marketers. the linear functional form was selected as the equation of best fit and was thus used for further discussion. the r2 value of 0.45 shows that 45% of the variations in the net marketing returns were explained by the variations in the independent variables. the purchasing cost of plantain and marketing experience of the marketers were statistically significant in influencing plantain marketers’ net marketing returns and therefore, the major drivers of the enterprise in the study area. the coefficient for cost of plantain was positive (0.2518676) and statistically significant at the 5% probability level (p≤0.05). this implied that the higher the price of plantain, the higher the net marketing returns of plantain marketers, while a decrease will lead to a decrease in the net marketing income. results in table 4 indicate that net marketing returns are majorly attributed to the relative scarcity and seasonality of plantain in the study area and as such marketers tend to make more profit, despite the high cost of purchase, due to an increase in demand, but with relatively limited supply. the results are consistent with findings by a similar study on the determinants of net marketing returns of watermelon in enugu state, nigeria[35] and other studies in southwestern nigeria which showed that cost of plantain was significant in determining the level of profit among plantain marketers [36,37]. the result also showed that the experiences of the plantain marketers over the years play a major role in driving the profit level of the marketers. thus, a unit increase in marketer’s experience leads to a 0.195021 increase in the profit level of the enterprise. the result is in tandem with the a priori expectation, which posited that an experienced marketer is better positioned to use his or her experiences acquired over the years to navigate any new or old challenges in the plantain marketing enterprise. an experienced marketer knows the best place and time to buy or sell his or her goods, so as to maximize profit and minimize marketing and associated costs. the result however contradicts another study that table 4. drivers of net marketing returns in plantain marketing variables linear semi-log double log exponential constant 709.2958 (0.12) 6.852345 (5.16) –5.678284 (–0.99) 0.001886 (–0.06) age –6.272809 (–0.06) –0.084899 (0.36) –0.2691972 (–0.36) 26300.91 (0.64) marketing experience 0.195021* (3.00) 0.0426468 (1.24) 0.1273448 (0.53) 1.6e+109 (1.71) household size –93.06977 (–0.22) 10.441525 (0.45) 0.3323607 (0.62) 3.80e–41 (–0.22) marital status –1035.675 (–0.60) –0.3703601 (–0.93) –1.136455 (–1.88) –1.35e–18 (–2.14) education –16.53843 (–0.07) –0.0448345 (–0.84) –0.6288037 (–1.29) 6.57e–08 (–0.07) cost of plantain 0.2518676* (4.64) 0.000396* (3.16) 1.24637* (3.36) 1.286426* (4.64) marketing cost 1.102463 (0.52) 0.0002084 (0.42) 0.4239647 (0.77) 3.011576 (0.52) access to credit –3636.09 (–1.01) 0.5337763 (0.66) –0.4016171 (–0.51) 1.528008 (0.77) r2 0.453 0.346 0.337 0.337 adjusted r2 0.367 0.232 0.2379 0.238 f– ratio 5.27 3.04 3.41 5.09 source: field data, 2020 * significant at p≤0.05 with the figures in parentheses being t-values 39 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 reported an inverse relationship between marketing experience and the net marketing returns of watermelon [38]. 3.5 constraints to plantain marketing results shown in table 5 elucidated the constraints militating against the marketing of plantain. table 5. constraints to plantain marketing constraints mean value standard deviation seasonality of the product 3.53 0.839 bulkiness 3.45 0.615 inadequate finance 3.40 0.124 high cost of transportation 3.38 0.114 spoilage and breakage 2.93 0.078 price fluctuation 2.62 0.880 high cost of produce 2.52 0.836 inadequate market information 2.23 0.102 high market commission 2.13 0.084 poor market access 1.20 0.717 source: field data, 2020 seasonality of the product, bulkiness, inadequate finance, high costs of transportation, spoilage and breakage, price fluctuations and high cost of the plantain itself were the major challenges confronting all the marketers, as seen in table 5. this corroborates spoilage of fruits and inadequate capital as major constraints in plantain marketing in afijio l.g.a of oyo state, nigeria [25]. however, poor access to the market, high market commission and inadequate market information were reported as the least severe constraints faced by the marketers. this may perhaps be attributable to the ease of communication and information sharing made possible by the use of mobile phones [39,40] and availability of extension agents [41] in the area. 4. conclusions and recommendations marketing is an important aspect of the agricultural value chain and it ensures that agricultural products reach the consumers in the place, time and form needed by the end-users. plantain marketing is a major source of livelihood in southern nigeria. marketing of plantain was profitable and viable though inefficient in the study area. the major drivers of the enterprise in the study area were the cost of plantain and marketing experience; thus, a marginal increase in the cost of plantain will lead to an increase in net marketing returns for the plantain marketers and vice versa. this is not unconnected to some marketing challenges faced by the marketers in the study area such as seasonality of plantain, inadequate finance, price fluctuations, high transportation costs and the bulky nature of the commodity, while poor access to the market, high market commission and inadequate market information were the least severe constraints. there is a need for the provision of basic marketing facilities such as basic infrastructures and credit to enhance marketing efficiency positively. plantain marketers should be influenced to join or form cooperative societies to help handle some of their issues. programmes promoting good marketing strategies, proper record keeping and generation of funds that will improve plantain marketing should be organized for the marketers by relevant government or non-government agencies. conflict of interest there is no conflict of interest. references [1] agbongiarhuoyi, a.e., uwagboe, e.o., agbeniyi, s.o., et al., 2020. analysis of farmers’ cashew nuts marketing channels 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[41] rahman, t., ara, s., khan, n.a., 2020. agro-information service and information-seeking behaviour of small-scale farmers in rural bangladesh. asia-pacific journal of rural development. 30(1-2), 175-194. 1 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.482 received: 12 january 2022; received in revised form: 14 february 2022; accepted: 22 february 2022; published: 4 march 2022 citation: guo, s.j., li, s.j., huang, g.q., 2022. effects of different intercropping models on growth and yield traits of maize in red soil dryland. research on world agricultural economy. 3(1), 482. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.482 *corresponding author: guoqin huang, ecological science research center, jiangxi agricultural university, nanchang, jiangxi, 330045, china; email: hgqjxes@sina.com research article effects of different intercropping models on growth and yield traits of maize in red soil dryland shujian guo shujuan li guoqin huang* ecological science research center, jiangxi agricultural university, nanchang, jiangxi, 330045, china abstract: in order to develop the suitable planting mode of maize in red soil dryland, improve the related plant and ear characters of maize, promote high quality and high yield, and improve economic benefits. the experiment was conducted in the science and technology park of jiangxi agricultural university from may 13, 2020 to october 18, 2020 and from may 5, 2021 to october 7, 2021. taking maize as the control, three intercropping treatments of maize intercropping soybean, maize intercropping peanut and maize intercropping sweet potato were set up to compare their effects on agronomic characters such as plant height, stem diameter and ear width of maize and yield. the results showed that the plant height and ear height of maize intercropping soybean reached the maximum in two years, with plant height of 208.9 cm and 191.9 cm, ear height of 80.2 cm and 58.4 cm, respectively. the ear length and grain number per row of intercropping treatment were better than that of monoculture treatment. the ear length of maize intercropping and soybean reached the maximum, which were 16.5 cm and 19.0 cm respectively, and the grain number per row was also higher than that of other treatments. the yield of maize intercropping soybean was the highest, 42.1 kg and 43.5 kg respectively in two years. compared with monoculture, intercropping can improve stem diameter, ear height, ear length, grain number per row and other ear traits, so as to improve corn yield, among which maize intercropping soybean is the best. the results of grey correlation showed that ear length and plant height had a great influence on maize yield. the comprehensive analysis shows that the use of maize intercropping soybean model is conducive to achieve high quality and high yield. keywords: red soil dryland; intercropping models; maize; agronomic characters; yield 1. introduction maize is the main food crop, as well as an important fodder and economic crop, and it occupies an important position in agricultural production and the national economy. its quality and output also directly affect the development of food security and agricultural production in my country and the world [1]. the dry land in southern my country is dominated by red dry land. the southern red soil area has a tropical and subtropical climate with a long frost-free period, concentrated rain, abundant water, light and heat resources, superior natural conditions, and huge production potential [2], but for a long time, due to 2 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 the existence of various production limiting factors such as acid, thinness, stickiness, drought, erosion, etc., coupled with extensive cultivation and unreasonable development and utilization, have resulted in low productivity and poor economic benefits in red soil dryland farmland [3]. intercropping can maximize the utilization of resources [4-6], increase production and income [7,8], increase the productivity of arable land, and effectively alleviate the contradiction of crop land competition [9]. intercropping, mixing, interplanting and multiple cropping are widely used in maize production to make full use of soil fertility, light, heat and water resources in time and space [10]. the land equivalent ratio of intercropping maize with dwarf grain crops such as soybean, peanut and sweet potato is higher than that of monoculture, which makes full use of spatial advantages and effectively improves the dynamic leaf area coefficient and light energy utilization rate. intercropping corn with soybean, peanut and sweet potato has significant yield increase and high economic benefit [11]. zhang xiangqian et al. [12] showed that the intercropping of corn with soybean, peanut and legume crops significantly increased the economic yield and biological yield of corn per plant, significantly increased the economic yield in the field, and significantly improved the nutritional quality of corn grains. chu fengli et al. [13] considered that the intercropping of sweet potato and maize has obvious yield advantages. the yield of intercropping maize is 9.76% higher than that of monoculture maize, and the land equivalent ratio of intercropping treatment is 1.12. jiangxi is a typical area of red soil dry land, and the area of soybeans, peanuts, sweet potatoes, etc. is large, which can be used for intercropping of corn, make full use of light and heat resources, and give full play to one area for multiple purposes. predecessors have studied corn intercropping soybeans [14], peanuts [15], and sweet potatoes [16,17], but there are relatively few reports comparing the effects of the three intercropping on agronomic traits and yield [18,19]. this study combines the actual production of maize in the arid regions of red soil in jiangxi, and compares the characteristics of maize plants and ears, yield and other indicators under different intercropping modes, and plans to screen out the maize intercropping models suitable for planting in the drylands of red soil in jiangxi, and make full use of land resources to promote corn quality high yield, improve economic efficiency. 2. materials and methods 2.1 experimental site this experiment was carried out in the science and technology park of jiangxi agricultural university (28°76′n, 115°84′e), where the terrain is flat, has a subtropical monsoon climate, and sufficient light and heat resources. the average annual rainfall is 2223.2 mm and the annual average temperature is 16.5 °c . the experimental field soil is a typical red loam, and the soil is slightly acidic. before the experiment, the basic nutrient status of the soil was basically the same, and the plots were equally and randomly arranged. the initial soil properties of the experiment were: ph 4.68, total nitrogen 0.129%, available phosphorus 62.27 mg·kg-1, available potassium 98.79 mg·kg-1, organic matter 26.50 g·kg-1, and alkali hydrolyzed nitrogen 100.00 mg·kg-1. 2.2 experimental design in this study, a randomized complete block design was adopted, and a total of 4 treatments were designed, maize monoculture (t1) control, maize intercropping soybean (t2), maize intercropping peanut (t3), maize intercropping sweet potato (t4). three repetitions are set for each treatment, with a total of 12 plots, with a length of 6m, a width of 5.5 m and a plot area of 33.0 m2. the corn variety is ganxinnuo 7, the soybean variety is 75-3, the peanut variety is huagan 1, and the sweet potato variety is guangshu 87, which is purchased by nanchang seed store. the row spacing between corn and corn is 35 cm, and the row spacing between soybean and soybean, peanut and sweet potato and sweet potato is 30 cm. the row spacing of beans, peanuts, sweet potatoes and corn was 50 cm. the three intercropping treatments were 2 rows of corn, 2 rows of soybean, 2 rows of peanut and 2 rows of sweet potato. the plant spacing of corn, soybean, peanut and sweet potato was 25 cm. the row spacing of maize in monoculture is 35 cm, the plant spacing is 25 cm, and the spacing between two rows of maize is 130 cm. the density of corn per unit area (667 m2) is 3880 plants, and the density of soybean, peanut and sweet potato is 2910 plants. 2.3 field management corn, soybean, peanut and sweet potato sowed on may 13, 2020 and may 5, 2021 respectively. in 2020, corn and soybean harvested on august 5, peanut on september 6 and sweet potato on october 18. in 2021, corn and soybeans harvested on july 29, peanuts on august 30 and sweet potatoes on october 7. base fertilizer: 1500 kg/ hm2 organic fertilizer, pure potassium sulfate (15-15-15) compound fertilizer 750 kg/hm2, sowing in furrows after spreading. urea 55 kg/hm2 was applied at jointing stage of maize and 135 kg/hm2 at heading stage. urea 45 kg/hm2, 3 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 potassium chloride 90 kg/hm2, urea 30 kg/hm2 and potassium chloride 75 kg/hm2 were applied at branching stage of soybean combined with intercropping. urea and potassium chloride 45 kg/hm2 were applied at seedling stage of peanut, urea 120 kg/hm2 and potassium chloride 90 kg/ hm2 were applied at flowering stage. sweet potato in the middle stage, 120 kg/hm2 urea and 75 kg/hm2 potassium sulfate were applied. other management is the same as land for growing field crops. 2.4 measurement items and methods 2.4.1 determination of agronomic characters at heading stage, 10 plants were randomly selected from each plot to examine plant height, stem diameter, ear height, empty stem rate, lodging rate and tillinging rate. after harvest, 10 ears were randomly selected from each plot for ear length, ear width, rows per ear, grain number per row and bald tip length. 2.4.2 determination of yield at the maturity stage of corn, 10 ears were selected to measure the weight of fresh ears, and the actual yield of each plot was calculated. 2.4.3 grey relational analysis for maize agronomic traits under different intercropping patterns, plant height (x1), stem thickness (x2), ear height (x3), ear length (x4), ear thickness (x5), bald tip length (x6), ear row number ( x7), the number of grains in a row (x8), and the output (x0) are analyzed for correlation. first determine the sequence and perform dimensionless processing, and then use excel 2019 software to calculate the gray correlation degree. suppose the yield traits of maize are the reference series x0, and the agronomic traits are the comparison series xi, i = 1, 2, 3,..., n, and x0 = {x0(1), x0(2), x0(3 ),..., x0 (n)}, xi = {xi (1), xi (2), xi(3),...xi(n)}, then (k) is the correlation coefficient between x0 and xi at the k-th point: 4 6 and sweet potato on october 18. in 2021, corn and soybeans harvested on july 29, peanuts on august 30 and sweet potatoes on october 7. base fertilizer: 1500 kg/hm2 organic fertilizer, pure potassium sulfate (15-15-15) compound fertilizer 750 kg/hm2, sowing in furrows after spreading. urea 55 kg/hm2 was applied at jointing stage of maize and 135 kg/hm2 at heading stage. urea 45 kg/hm2, potassium chloride 90 kg/hm2, urea 30 kg/hm2 and potassium chloride 75 kg/hm2 were applied at branching stage of soybean combined with intercropping. urea and potassium chloride 45 kg/hm2 were applied at seedling stage of peanut, urea 120 kg/hm2 and potassium chloride 90 kg/hm2 were applied at flowering stage. sweet potato in the middle stage, 120 kg/hm2 urea and 75 kg/hm2 potassium sulfate were applied. other management is the same as land for growing field crops. 2.4 measurement items and methods 2.4.1 determination of agronomic characters at heading stage, 10 plants were randomly selected from each plot to examine plant height, stem diameter, ear height, empty stem rate, lodging rate and tillinging rate. after harvest, 10 ears were randomly selected from each plot for ear length, ear width, rows per ear, grain number per row and bald tip length. 2.4.2 determination of yield at the maturity stage of corn, 10 ears were selected to measure the weight of fresh ears, and the actual yield of each plot was calculated. 2.4.3 grey relational analysis first determine the sequence and perform dimensionless processing, and then use excel 2019 software to calculate the gray correlation degree. suppose the yield traits of maize are the reference series x0, and the agronomic traits are the comparison series xi, i = 1, 2, 3,..., n, and x0 = {x0(1), x0(2), x0(3 ),..., x0 (n)}, xi = {xi (1), xi (2), xi(3),...xi(n)}, then εi(k) is the correlation coefficient between x0 and xi at the k-th point: 휀푖 = 푚푖푛푚푖푛|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)|+휌푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 푖 푘 |푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)|+휌푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 , in the formula: |x0(k) − xi(k)| represents the absolute difference between the sequence of numbers and the sequence of numbers at the k-th point, denoted as: ∆푖(푘) = |푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)|, calculate the degree of relevance: 푟푖 = 1 푁 푘=1 푛 휀푖(푘)∑ , where: 푚푖푛푚푖푛|푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 is the second least difference, 푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 is the second-level maximum difference, is the resolution coefficient, n is the number of samples, the value range is 0~1, and the value is 0.5. in the formula: 4 6 and sweet potato on october 18. in 2021, corn and soybeans harvested on july 29, peanuts on august 30 and sweet potatoes on october 7. base fertilizer: 1500 kg/hm2 organic fertilizer, pure potassium sulfate (15-15-15) compound fertilizer 750 kg/hm2, sowing in furrows after spreading. urea 55 kg/hm2 was applied at jointing stage of maize and 135 kg/hm2 at heading stage. urea 45 kg/hm2, potassium chloride 90 kg/hm2, urea 30 kg/hm2 and potassium chloride 75 kg/hm2 were applied at branching stage of soybean combined with intercropping. urea and potassium chloride 45 kg/hm2 were applied at seedling stage of peanut, urea 120 kg/hm2 and potassium chloride 90 kg/hm2 were applied at flowering stage. sweet potato in the middle stage, 120 kg/hm2 urea and 75 kg/hm2 potassium sulfate were applied. other management is the same as land for growing field crops. 2.4 measurement items and methods 2.4.1 determination of agronomic characters at heading stage, 10 plants were randomly selected from each plot to examine plant height, stem diameter, ear height, empty stem rate, lodging rate and tillinging rate. after harvest, 10 ears were randomly selected from each plot for ear length, ear width, rows per ear, grain number per row and bald tip length. 2.4.2 determination of yield at the maturity stage of corn, 10 ears were selected to measure the weight of fresh ears, and the actual yield of each plot was calculated. 2.4.3 grey relational analysis first determine the sequence and perform dimensionless processing, and then use excel 2019 software to calculate the gray correlation degree. suppose the yield traits of maize are the reference series x0, and the agronomic traits are the comparison series xi, i = 1, 2, 3,..., n, and x0 = {x0(1), x0(2), x0(3 ),..., x0 (n)}, xi = {xi (1), xi (2), xi(3),...xi(n)}, then εi(k) is the correlation coefficient between x0 and xi at the k-th point: 휀푖 = 푚푖푛푚푖푛|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)|+휌푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 푖 푘 |푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)|+휌푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 , in the formula: |x0(k) − xi(k)| represents the absolute difference between the sequence of numbers and the sequence of numbers at the k-th point, denoted as: ∆푖(푘) = |푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)|, calculate the degree of relevance: 푟푖 = 1 푁 푘=1 푛 휀푖(푘)∑ , where: 푚푖푛푚푖푛|푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 is the second least difference, 푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 is the second-level maximum difference, is the resolution coefficient, n is the number of samples, the value range is 0~1, and the value is 0.5. represents the absolute difference between the sequence of numbers and the sequence of numbers at the k-th point, denoted as: 4 6 and sweet potato on october 18. in 2021, corn and soybeans harvested on july 29, peanuts on august 30 and sweet potatoes on october 7. base fertilizer: 1500 kg/hm2 organic fertilizer, pure potassium sulfate (15-15-15) compound fertilizer 750 kg/hm2, sowing in furrows after spreading. urea 55 kg/hm2 was applied at jointing stage of maize and 135 kg/hm2 at heading stage. urea 45 kg/hm2, potassium chloride 90 kg/hm2, urea 30 kg/hm2 and potassium chloride 75 kg/hm2 were applied at branching stage of soybean combined with intercropping. urea and potassium chloride 45 kg/hm2 were applied at seedling stage of peanut, urea 120 kg/hm2 and potassium chloride 90 kg/hm2 were applied at flowering stage. sweet potato in the middle stage, 120 kg/hm2 urea and 75 kg/hm2 potassium sulfate were applied. other management is the same as land for growing field crops. 2.4 measurement items and methods 2.4.1 determination of agronomic characters at heading stage, 10 plants were randomly selected from each plot to examine plant height, stem diameter, ear height, empty stem rate, lodging rate and tillinging rate. after harvest, 10 ears were randomly selected from each plot for ear length, ear width, rows per ear, grain number per row and bald tip length. 2.4.2 determination of yield at the maturity stage of corn, 10 ears were selected to measure the weight of fresh ears, and the actual yield of each plot was calculated. 2.4.3 grey relational analysis first determine the sequence and perform dimensionless processing, and then use excel 2019 software to calculate the gray correlation degree. suppose the yield traits of maize are the reference series x0, and the agronomic traits are the comparison series xi, i = 1, 2, 3,..., n, and x0 = {x0(1), x0(2), x0(3 ),..., x0 (n)}, xi = {xi (1), xi (2), xi(3),...xi(n)}, then εi(k) is the correlation coefficient between x0 and xi at the k-th point: 휀푖 = 푚푖푛푚푖푛|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)|+휌푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 푖 푘 |푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)|+휌푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 , in the formula: |x0(k) − xi(k)| represents the absolute difference between the sequence of numbers and the sequence of numbers at the k-th point, denoted as: ∆푖(푘) = |푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)|, calculate the degree of relevance: 푟푖 = 1 푁 푘=1 푛 휀푖(푘)∑ , where: 푚푖푛푚푖푛|푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 is the second least difference, 푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 is the second-level maximum difference, is the resolution coefficient, n is the number of samples, the value range is 0~1, and the value is 0.5. calculate the degree of relevance: 4 6 and sweet potato on october 18. in 2021, corn and soybeans harvested on july 29, peanuts on august 30 and sweet potatoes on october 7. base fertilizer: 1500 kg/hm2 organic fertilizer, pure potassium sulfate (15-15-15) compound fertilizer 750 kg/hm2, sowing in furrows after spreading. urea 55 kg/hm2 was applied at jointing stage of maize and 135 kg/hm2 at heading stage. urea 45 kg/hm2, potassium chloride 90 kg/hm2, urea 30 kg/hm2 and potassium chloride 75 kg/hm2 were applied at branching stage of soybean combined with intercropping. urea and potassium chloride 45 kg/hm2 were applied at seedling stage of peanut, urea 120 kg/hm2 and potassium chloride 90 kg/hm2 were applied at flowering stage. sweet potato in the middle stage, 120 kg/hm2 urea and 75 kg/hm2 potassium sulfate were applied. other management is the same as land for growing field crops. 2.4 measurement items and methods 2.4.1 determination of agronomic characters at heading stage, 10 plants were randomly selected from each plot to examine plant height, stem diameter, ear height, empty stem rate, lodging rate and tillinging rate. after harvest, 10 ears were randomly selected from each plot for ear length, ear width, rows per ear, grain number per row and bald tip length. 2.4.2 determination of yield at the maturity stage of corn, 10 ears were selected to measure the weight of fresh ears, and the actual yield of each plot was calculated. 2.4.3 grey relational analysis first determine the sequence and perform dimensionless processing, and then use excel 2019 software to calculate the gray correlation degree. suppose the yield traits of maize are the reference series x0, and the agronomic traits are the comparison series xi, i = 1, 2, 3,..., n, and x0 = {x0(1), x0(2), x0(3 ),..., x0 (n)}, xi = {xi (1), xi (2), xi(3),...xi(n)}, then εi(k) is the correlation coefficient between x0 and xi at the k-th point: 휀푖 = 푚푖푛푚푖푛|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)|+휌푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 푖 푘 |푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)|+휌푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 , in the formula: |x0(k) − xi(k)| represents the absolute difference between the sequence of numbers and the sequence of numbers at the k-th point, denoted as: ∆푖(푘) = |푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)|, calculate the degree of relevance: 푟푖 = 1 푁 푘=1 푛 휀푖(푘)∑ , where: 푚푖푛푚푖푛|푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 is the second least difference, 푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 is the second-level maximum difference, is the resolution coefficient, n is the number of samples, the value range is 0~1, and the value is 0.5. where: 4 6 and sweet potato on october 18. in 2021, corn and soybeans harvested on july 29, peanuts on august 30 and sweet potatoes on october 7. base fertilizer: 1500 kg/hm2 organic fertilizer, pure potassium sulfate (15-15-15) compound fertilizer 750 kg/hm2, sowing in furrows after spreading. urea 55 kg/hm2 was applied at jointing stage of maize and 135 kg/hm2 at heading stage. urea 45 kg/hm2, potassium chloride 90 kg/hm2, urea 30 kg/hm2 and potassium chloride 75 kg/hm2 were applied at branching stage of soybean combined with intercropping. urea and potassium chloride 45 kg/hm2 were applied at seedling stage of peanut, urea 120 kg/hm2 and potassium chloride 90 kg/hm2 were applied at flowering stage. sweet potato in the middle stage, 120 kg/hm2 urea and 75 kg/hm2 potassium sulfate were applied. other management is the same as land for growing field crops. 2.4 measurement items and methods 2.4.1 determination of agronomic characters at heading stage, 10 plants were randomly selected from each plot to examine plant height, stem diameter, ear height, empty stem rate, lodging rate and tillinging rate. after harvest, 10 ears were randomly selected from each plot for ear length, ear width, rows per ear, grain number per row and bald tip length. 2.4.2 determination of yield at the maturity stage of corn, 10 ears were selected to measure the weight of fresh ears, and the actual yield of each plot was calculated. 2.4.3 grey relational analysis first determine the sequence and perform dimensionless processing, and then use excel 2019 software to calculate the gray correlation degree. suppose the yield traits of maize are the reference series x0, and the agronomic traits are the comparison series xi, i = 1, 2, 3,..., n, and x0 = {x0(1), x0(2), x0(3 ),..., x0 (n)}, xi = {xi (1), xi (2), xi(3),...xi(n)}, then εi(k) is the correlation coefficient between x0 and xi at the k-th point: 휀푖 = 푚푖푛푚푖푛|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)|+휌푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 푖 푘 |푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)|+휌푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 , in the formula: |x0(k) − xi(k)| represents the absolute difference between the sequence of numbers and the sequence of numbers at the k-th point, denoted as: ∆푖(푘) = |푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)|, calculate the degree of relevance: 푟푖 = 1 푁 푘=1 푛 휀푖(푘)∑ , where: 푚푖푛푚푖푛|푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 is the second least difference, 푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 is the second-level maximum difference, is the resolution coefficient, n is the number of samples, the value range is 0~1, and the value is 0.5. is the second least difference, 4 6 and sweet potato on october 18. in 2021, corn and soybeans harvested on july 29, peanuts on august 30 and sweet potatoes on october 7. base fertilizer: 1500 kg/hm2 organic fertilizer, pure potassium sulfate (15-15-15) compound fertilizer 750 kg/hm2, sowing in furrows after spreading. urea 55 kg/hm2 was applied at jointing stage of maize and 135 kg/hm2 at heading stage. urea 45 kg/hm2, potassium chloride 90 kg/hm2, urea 30 kg/hm2 and potassium chloride 75 kg/hm2 were applied at branching stage of soybean combined with intercropping. urea and potassium chloride 45 kg/hm2 were applied at seedling stage of peanut, urea 120 kg/hm2 and potassium chloride 90 kg/hm2 were applied at flowering stage. sweet potato in the middle stage, 120 kg/hm2 urea and 75 kg/hm2 potassium sulfate were applied. other management is the same as land for growing field crops. 2.4 measurement items and methods 2.4.1 determination of agronomic characters at heading stage, 10 plants were randomly selected from each plot to examine plant height, stem diameter, ear height, empty stem rate, lodging rate and tillinging rate. after harvest, 10 ears were randomly selected from each plot for ear length, ear width, rows per ear, grain number per row and bald tip length. 2.4.2 determination of yield at the maturity stage of corn, 10 ears were selected to measure the weight of fresh ears, and the actual yield of each plot was calculated. 2.4.3 grey relational analysis first determine the sequence and perform dimensionless processing, and then use excel 2019 software to calculate the gray correlation degree. suppose the yield traits of maize are the reference series x0, and the agronomic traits are the comparison series xi, i = 1, 2, 3,..., n, and x0 = {x0(1), x0(2), x0(3 ),..., x0 (n)}, xi = {xi (1), xi (2), xi(3),...xi(n)}, then εi(k) is the correlation coefficient between x0 and xi at the k-th point: 휀푖 = 푚푖푛푚푖푛|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)|+휌푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 푖 푘 |푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)|+휌푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘)−푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 , in the formula: |x0(k) − xi(k)| represents the absolute difference between the sequence of numbers and the sequence of numbers at the k-th point, denoted as: ∆푖(푘) = |푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)|, calculate the degree of relevance: 푟푖 = 1 푁 푘=1 푛 휀푖(푘)∑ , where: 푚푖푛푚푖푛|푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 is the second least difference, 푚푎푥푚푎푥|푋0(푘) − 푋푖(푘)| 푖 푘 is the second-level maximum difference, is the resolution coefficient, n is the number of samples, the value range is 0~1, and the value is 0.5. is the second-level maximum difference, is the resolution coefficient, n is the number of samples, the value range is 0~1, and the value is 0.5. 2.5 data analysis use excel 2019 to statistically process the data and graph, use spss 20.0 to perform one-way analysis of variance on the data, use duncan method to perform multiple comparisons and pearson’s two-tailed correlation analysis for each measurement data. 3. results 3.1 effects of different intercropping models on plant and ear characters of maize 3.1.1 plant characters there was no significant difference between the plant height and ear height of each treatment in 2020 and 2021, but the plant height of maize intercropping soybean (t2) reached the maximum value of 208.9 cm in 2020, and the ear height of maize intercropping soybean (t2) also reached the maximum value of 80.2 cm. there was no significant difference in the stem diameter of maize intercropping soybean (t2), maize intercropping peanut (t3), maize intercropping sweet potato (t4) in 2020, and the stem diameter of maize monoculture (t1) was significantly lower than that of other intercropping treatments. in 2021, there was no obvious regularity in stem diameter, and the differences in plant traits between treatments were not obvious, maintaining good stability. however, the plant height, stem diameter, and ear position of maize intercropping soybean (t2) are as high as the maximum. the plant height is 191.9 cm, the stem diameter is 2.4 cm, and the ear position height is 58.4 cm. under different intercropping modes, the empty stem rate, tilling rate,lodging rate and reversal rate of corn are all 0. taken together, there is no obvious difference in plant traits between different corn intercropping treatments, but the overall performance of the intercropping treatment is better than that of the monoculture treatment. among them, the plant growth of maize intercropping soybean (t2) is better, and the plant height, stem diameter, and ear height are better (table 1). 3.1.2 ear characters under different intercropping modes, there is no significant difference in ear width and bald tip length of maize in 2020 and 2021, and there is no obvious regularity in the 4 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 rows per ear and the grain number per row in two years. however, the ear length and the grain number per row in the two-year intercropping treatment were better than those of the monoculture treatment. among them, the ear length of maize intercropping soybean (t2) reached the maximum, which were 16.5 cm and 19.0 cm, respectively, and the grain number per row was also higher than other treatments. in 2021, the ear width of maize intercropping soybean (t2) reached the maximum value of 4.8 cm, the length of the bald tip was the shortest, 2.4 cm, and the grain number per row was the largest, reaching 33 grains per row. the rows per ear were not obvious compared with other treatments (table 2). different intercropping treatments can increase the fresh fruit ear weight. the fresh fruit ear weight of maize intercropping soybean (t2) is the largest in two years, 219.3 g and 256.1 g respectively. according to the ear characters of two years, intercropping treatment has more advantages than monoculture treatment, and the ear characters of maize intercropping soybean (t2) are better (figure 1). table 1. main plant characters under different intercropping models year treatment plant height(cm) stem diameter(cm) ear height(cm) 2020 t1(ck) 196.4±4.4a 1.8±0.1b 70.5±5.1a t2 208.9±4.1a 2.1±0.1a 80.2±2.7a t3 208.8±5.2a 2.0±0.1ab 77.3±2.4a t4 208.4±1.9a 2.1±0.1ab 76.2±1.4a mean 205.63 2.04 76.05 cv(%) 3.60 5.79 7.60 2021 t1(ck) 186.4±3.9a 2.2±0.1a 52.7±2.9a t2 191.9±5.5a 2.4±0.1a 58.4±4.7a t3 184.8±1.6a 2.2±0.3a 51.7±1.7a t4 186.8±2.7a 2.3±0.2a 57.7±1.3a mean 187.48 2.28 55.13 cv(%) 3.35 6.74 8.82 note: the data in the table of agronomic traits are the average value of three repetitions. different lowercase letters in the same column represent the level of 0.05, with significant difference. table 2. main characters of ear under different intercropping models year treatment ear length(cm) ear width (cm) bald tip length(cm) rows per ear grain number per row 2020 t1(ck) 14.9±0.5a 4.3±0.5a 1.7±0.5a 12.3±0.2b 27.3±1.3b t2 16.5±0.4a 4.6±0.1a 2.6±0.3a 13.0±0.3ab 31.5±1.4a t3 15.4±0.3a 4.6±0.1a 1.9±0.3a 12.4±0.2b 28.4±0.8ab t4 15.9±0.7a 4.7±0.2a 2.4±0.2a 13.7±0.5a 28.4±0.6ab 2021 t1(ck) 17.0±0.5b 4.5±0.1a 2.7±0.5a 13.3±0.7a 26.0±1.2a t2 19.0±0.7a 4.8±0.3a 2.4±0.6a 13.0±0.0a 33.0±4.5a t3 18.1±0.3ab 4.3±0.4a 2.6±0.6a 13.3±0.3a 29.7±0.1a t4 18.6±0.3ab 4.5±0.6a 2.9±0.4a 13.0±0.0a 28.7±2.7a note: the data in the table of agronomic traits are the average value of three repetitions. different lowercase letters in the same column represent the level of 0.05, with significant difference. 5 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 3.2 effects of different intercropping models on maize yield in the two years, the yield of maize intercropping was higher than that of monoculture. although there was no significant difference among all treatments, maize intercropping soybean (t2) showed the highest yield, with an average yield of 42.1 kg and 43.5 kg respectively, followed by maize intercropping sweet potato (t4). corn intercropping with soybean plays a great role in increasing corn yield and is a better choice, which can improve economic benefits (figure 2). 3.3 grey correlation analysis of agronomic characters and yield in different intercropping models according to the requirements of grey theory, the correlation degree and order of correlation degree of agronomic traits to yield in 2020 and 2021 are shown in table 3. the correlation degree of all traits to yield are as follows: ear length (0.7324) > grain number per row (0.7144) > plant height (0.7073) > ear height (0.6857) > stem diameter (0.6481) > rows per ear (0.6009) > bald tip length (0.5910) > ear width (0.5461); ear length (0.8141) > 192.1 212.2219.3 236.4 203.3 231.3 206.8 234.7 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 2020 2021 fr es h fr ui t e ar w ei gh t( g) t1 t2 t3 t4 figure 1. ear weight of fresh fruit under different intercropping models note: the data in the table are sem. 36.9 42.1 39.0 40.9 36.9 43.5 39.9 42.4 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 t1 t2 t3 t4 yi el d（ kg ） production in 2020 production in 2021 linearity（production in 2020） linearity（production in 2021） figure 2. yield of fresh ear plots under different intercropping models note: the data in the table are sem. 6 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 rows per ear (0.8034) > plant height (0.7961) > ear height (0.7887) > ear width (0.7718) > bald tip length (0.6358) > grain number per row (0.6032) > stem diameter (0.4379). the correlation order of ear diameter, number of rows per ear, number of grains per row and yield changed greatly in different years, while the correlation order of ear length, plant height, ear position height and yield was relatively stable. the correlation between ear length, plant height and yield was the first and third in two years, indicating that ear length and plant height had a great impact on yield. the grey correlation analysis of maize yield and agronomic traits can explore the relationship between maize yield and agronomic traits, help to clarify the yield trait factors affecting maize high yield, and provide a basis for the theory of high yield of different intercropping maize in the later stage. the results showed that the development of different maize intercropping modes should pay attention to strengthening field management and improving ear length, plant height and stem diameter. the selection of maize intercropping mode suitable for red soil dryland is helpful to improve the yield of maize intercropping (table 3). table 3. correlation degree and order between agronomic characters and yield of maize under different intercropping modes agronomic traits 2020 2021 correlation degree correlation order correlation degree correlation order plant height 0.7073 3 0.7961 3 stem diameter 0.6481 5 0.4379 8 ear height 0.6857 4 0.7887 4 ear width 0.5461 8 0.7718 5 ear length 0.7324 1 0.8141 1 rows per ear 0.6009 6 0.8034 2 grain number per row 0.7144 2 0.6032 7 bald tip length 0.5910 7 0.6358 6 4. discussion 4.1 effects of different intercropping models on agronomic characters and yield studies have shown that in intercropping systems such as maize soybean [20] and maize peanut [21,22], the yield of intercropping maize is significantly higher than that of monocropping, showing obvious advantages in intercropping yield [23]. the research results of xie xinghua et al. [24] showed that the yield per plant of intercropping maize was higher than that of monocropping maize. the intercropping of corn and sweet potato can increase the crop yield per unit land area, which is conducive to ensuring food security and increasing farmers’ income. the research results of shen lei et al. [25] showed that compared with monocropping, corn intercropping can promote the growth of corn and increase the yield of corn, and it has better planting advantages. the results of this study show that corn intercropping can increase the plant height, ear height, stem diameter, ear length, number of rows and grains, and yield of corn, and has advantages in promoting corn growth and yield. 4.2 grey correlation analysis of agronomic characters and yield in different intercropping models the research results of wang pingxi et al. [26] showed that the correlation degree between the main agronomic characters and yield of each maize line was as follows: ear width > grain number per row > leaf length per ear > stem diameter > ear length > ear height > number of male ear branches > leaf width per ear > main shaft length of male ear > angle between upper ear leaves > plant height > leaf area per ear > rows per ear > bald tip length, including ear width, grain number per row, stem diameter had a great effect on maize yield. sun fengcheng et al. [27] applied grey correlation analysis to show that the agronomic traits closely related to maize yield are seed yield, grain number per row, ear width, 100 grain quality and plant height. the results showed that different agronomic characters would have different effects on maize, such as ear length, plant height and so on. therefore, when developing different intercropping models of maize in red soil dryland, we should pay attention to the selection of varieties with appropriate ear length and plant height. in this study, only one variety of gancainuo 7 was selected. there may be differences among different maize varieties. different geographical locations, climatic conditions and cultivation and management measures can also lead to different test results. 5. conclusions the results showed that maize intercropping could not only improve plant height, stem diameter and ear height, promote ear length, grain number per row and other ear characters, but also improve maize yield. the main agronomic factors affecting the yield of intercropping maize are ear length and plant height. selecting suitable varieties and strengthening field management are conducive to better correlation and improve the yield. the comprehensive 7 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 analysis shows that the intercropping advantage of maize and soybean is obvious, which is conducive to high quality and high yield. funding this research was funded by the national research foundation of china (32160310); national key research and development program of china (2016yfd0300208); scientific project of department of jiangxi education of china (gjj200444); key disciplines (construction) of ecology in the 13th five-y ear plan of jiangxi agricultural university. conflict of interest the authors declare no conflict of interest. references [1] zhao, k., 2019. current status and development trend of corn production in my country. new agriculture. 24, 49. [2] cui, a.h., zhou, l.h., yang, b.j., et al., 2017. ecological function evaluation of different multiple cropping methods in red dry land. chinese journal of applied ecology. 28(02), 456-464. [3] huang, g.q., liu, x.y., liu, l.w., et al., 2006. comprehensive benefit evaluation of multi-cropping planting system in dryland of red soil. acta ecologica sinica. 8, 2532-2539. [4] willey, r., 1979. intercropping its importance and research needs part 1. competition and yield advantages vol-32. field crop abstracts. 32. [5] rengel, l.l.a.j., 2001. wheat/maize or wheat/ soybean strip intercropping: i. yield advantage and interspecific interactions on nutrients. field crops research. [6] liu, g.c., yang, q.f., li, l., et al., 2008. the advantages of wheat/maize intercropping and the relative contribution of aboveground and underground factors. chinese journal of plant ecology. 2, 477-484. [7] yang, w.y., 2008. a new high-efficiency ecological multi-cropping planting model in dry land “wheatjade-bean”. world agriculture. 9, 78-79. [8] chen, f., 1997. new progress of multi-cropping system in my country. farming and cultivation. 1997(z1), 9-11. [9] liu, x.h., chen, f., wu, y., 2015. multi-crop planting-the mainstay of chinese agriculture. crop journal. 6, 1-9. [10] gao, sh.j., 2017. the current situation and development trend of corn production in my country. friends of farmers to get rich. 22, 77. [11] yang, r.zh., lu, j.sh., zhao, l.f., et al., 1996. research on the intercropping method of corn with soybean, peanut and sweet potato. maize science. 4, 5053. [12] zhang, x.q., huang, g.q., bian, x.m., et al., 2012. effects of intercropping on corn quality, yield, soil microbial quantity and enzyme activity. acta ecologica sinica. 32(22), 7082-7090. [13] chu, f.l., li, sh.m., liu, y.j., et al., 2020. the effect of sweet potato and corn intercropping on soil properties and crop yields. shanxi agricultural sciences. 48(09), 1445-1448. [14] gao, y., duan, a.w., liu, z.g., et al., 2009. effects of monocropping and intercropping on the radiation efficiency and yield of maize and soybean populations. chinese journal of eco-agriculture. 17(01), 7-12. [15] yang, h., zhou, y., chen, p., et al., 2021. the effect of corn-legume intercropping on nutrient absorption and utilization and yield advantages. acta crops, 2021, 1-14. [16] zhang, y., guo, sh.y., shang, sh., et al., 2020. effects of different sweet potato/maize intercropping methods on soil nutrients, enzyme activities and crop yields. shanxi agricultural sciences. 48(08), 12341238. [17] xie, x.h., guo, sh.y., lu, g.y., et al., 2016. effects of corn and sweet potato intercropping on related factors of corn yield formation. journal of anhui agricultural sciences. 44(09), 39-41. [18] wang, x.w., yang, w.t., miao, j.q., et al., 2014. effects of maize-soybean intercropping and nitrogen application on maize yield and agronomic characteristics. acta ecologica sinica. 34(18), 5275-5282. [19] li, q.ch., wang, l.d., zhao, x.m., et al., 2020. effects of different sowing dates and planting methods on related traits and yield of waxy corn. heilongjiang agricultural sciences. 9, 20-23. [20] tsubo, m., walker, s., ogindo, h.o., 2005. a simulation model of cereal–legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions: i. model development. field crops research. 93(1), 10-22. [21] jiao, n.y., zhao, c., ning, t.y., et al., 2008. effects of maize-peanut intercropping on economic yield and light response of photosynthesis. chinese journal of applied ecology. 19(5), 981-985. [22] banik, p., sharma, r.c., 2009. yield and resource utilization efficiency in baby corn—legume-intercropping system in the eastern plateau of india. journal of sustainable agriculture. 33(4), 379-395. 8 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 [23] jiao, n.y., ning, t.y., yang, m.k., et al., 2013. effects of maize and peanut intercropping on photosynthetic characteristics and yield formation of maize. acta ecologica sinica. 33(14), 4324-4330. [24] xie, x.h., guo, sh.y., lu, g.y., et al., 2016. effects of corn and sweet potato intercropping on related factors of corn yield formation. journal of anhui agricultural sciences. 44(09), 39-41. [25] shen, l., wang, x.y., teng, y.x., et al., 2021. study on the influence of maize soybean on crop growth and yield in arid area. journal of shihezi university (natural science). doi: https://doi.org/10.13880/ j.cnki.65-1174/n.2021.21.034. [26] wang, p.x., jin, x.n., wu, x.y., et al., 2021. grey correlation analysis of main agronomic characters and yield of 14 maize lines. journal of henan institute of science and technology (natural science). 49(05), 12-18. [27] sun, f.ch., feng, y., yu, zh., et al., 2012. grey correlation analysis of main agronomic traits, yield and quality of 12 maize populations. north china agricultural journal. 27(01), 102-105. 39 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: cosmas parwada, faculty of agricultural sciences, department of agricultural management, zimbabwe open university, gweru, zimbabwe; email: cparwada@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i2.515 received: 8 april 2022; received in revised form: 15 may 2022; accepted: 20 may 2022; published: 26 may 2022 citation: parwada, c., chipomho, j., mapope, n., et al., 2022. role of agroforestry on farmland productivity in semi-arid farming regions of zimbabwe. research on world agricultural economy. 3(2), 515. http://dx.doi. org/10.36956/rwae.v3i2.515 review article role of agroforestry on farmland productivity in semi-arid farming regions of zimbabwe cosmas parwada1* justin chipomho2 nyamande mapope2 edmore masama1 kennedy simango2 1. department of agricultural management, faculty of agricultural sciences, zimbabwe open university, gweru, zimbabwe 2. department of crop science, faculty of agricultural sciences and technology, marondera university of agricultural sciences and technology, marondera, zimbabwe abstract: farmland productivity is low in the semi-arid regions (nr iv and v) of zimbabwe due to desertification and land degradation. nevertheless, demand for food is increasing geometrically hence the need to increase output per unit area. agroforestry (af) which is an ecologically based and dynamic system that integrates multi-purpose trees on farms can increase productivity and offer resilience to climate change vagaries. however, the role of af in zimbabwean smallholder farming systems is still not well investigated. therefore, this review explores the role of agroforestry on agricultural productivity in the semi-arid regions of zimbabwe. the aim was to enhance s u s t a i n a b l e food security among the rural poor through sustainable agriculture. incorporating multi-purpose trees on agricultural lands can significantly restore soil productivity and offer soil resilience to erosion by water and wind. if well implemented, the af can be a viable option in mitigating the impacts of drought on agriculture in these drier and marginalized areas. keywords: adoption; crop productivity; drought; low fertility; multi-purpose trees 1. introduction the geometric increase of human population in subsaharan africa (ssa) indicates an increased food demand against a reducing agricultural landscape. the human population in the ssa region is projected to increase by 60% in the next 23 years, overtaking growth in the agricultural sector [1]. national food production is projected to increase in the near future however, the response to demand is unlikely to keep pace [2]. this calls for improved food production methods that can sustainably yield high per unit area. currently, the average yield for most crops is less than 0.5 t·ha-1 which could have been further reduced due to the recurrent droughts [13]. this has a negative impact on food security [3]. low crop productivity is a persistent problem among the smallholdmailto:cparwada@gmail.com http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i2.515 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7960-4303 40 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 er farmers in ssa [4]. crop productivity in the region is poor due to poor crop management and declining soil fertility [5]. zimbabwe is among the ssa countries experiencing continuous food shortages because of many reasons e.g poor agronomic practices, poor crop and variety selection in some agro-ecological areas, climate change which are exacerbated by an ailing economy. at farm level, mismanagement of soil fertility contributes more to the low crop productivity and reduces the farmers’ abilities to guarantee their own food security [3]. therefore, without practical food production innovations, the ssa will depend on food imports for food security. zimbabwean small-scale farmers rarely apply plant nutrients that are required for crop growth [4] because they do not have money to buy expensive inorganic fertilizers. the most limiting nutrients in the smallholder crop land are nitrogen and phosphorus because the soils are highly leached and acidic [6]. inadequate nutrient supply and nutrient mining in the communal cropping land has caused high levels of soil degradation in many zimbabwean soils [7]. marginalized farming areas (natural region iv and v) have more challenges which are compounded by low rainfall (<650 mm per annum) [4]. in zimbabwe, the marginalized semi-arid regions fall into two agro-ecological zones (nr) that are nr iv and nr v [8]. the nr iv is characterized by annual rainfall that ranges between 350 mm~650 mm, and is suitable for semi-intensive farming systems like livestock and drought resistant crops. whereas the nr v which is drier than iv receives an annual rainfall ranging from 400 mm~600 mm and favours semi-extensive farming e.g. cattle ranching. the largest (approximately 84%) of zimbabwean farming areas can be classified as marginalized (nr iii, iv and v) for crop production (figure 1). soils found in the nrs iv and v are described as granitic sandy and are characteristically low in organic matter (<2% soil organic carbon) and nutrients content, hence continuous cultivation without nutrient replenishment will rapidly degrade these soils [7]. the zimbabwe agro-ecological classification was done long ago, and has been used for more than 50 years to date. the classification does not consider the smallholder and communal farming areas and possible boundary changes that may have occurred between the nrs due to climate change and variability. interestingly, the classification criteria rely on the mean annual rainfall and exclude the effective rainfall this may complicate planning and implementation of the cropping programmes [10]. factoring the effective rainfall received in an area, a larger proportion of zimbabwe can be classified as marginalized with poor crop yield under conventional agricultural production systems. contrastingly, the majority of the zimbabwean communal farmers are located in these marginalized regions suggesting that a large number of people are vulnerable to food shortages in the country. over half the zimbabwean population (57%) are in the communal areas and at least three-quarters of this population lie in natural regions iv and v, where dry-land cropping is risky at best [10]. communal areas are characterized by small land (< 1 ha) ownership and this creates pressures on the land resulting in high rates of soil erosion which reduce the land value. many communal areas in zimbabwe lack infrastructure such as irrigation facilities hence most affected and vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather conditions which further exacerbate low agricultural productivity [11]. agroforestry involves the intentional growing of perennial woody-trees species together with crops. the woodytrees species are incorporated to promote either the biological functions or increase the economic return of the farm, or both [6]. a healthy agro-ecosystem should be beneficial to humans through provision of goods and services at various scales of production [18]. this usually involves the lateral flows e.g., water and sediment constituting the physical part of the nesting [3]. the effective control of these lateral flows can improve soil moisture availability by more than 30% water holding capacity especially in dry farming regions since water is the most immediate, direct and visible resource in such systems [26]. the agroforestry practices may enhance crop productivity in different ways e.g. promoting high soil nutrition through planting of nitrogen-fixing woody trees species between rows of annual crops [5]. the biomass from the trees can also be harvested and used as green manure. the trees can also simultaneously reduce soil erosion e.g mutua et al. [27], observed a general decrease in soil loss in arenosols from 0.51 t·ha-1 to 0.2 t·ha-1 under no-af and with af respectively. agroforestry significantly reduced water l o s s by >50% and was noted to protect crops against pests as some trees can deter pests. other benefits of af are provision of shade for crops which can increase yield and quality in thigmotropic and shade loving crops e.g coffee, increase soil organic carbon (>2%) resulting to modification of the biological, physical and chemical soil properties [2]. growing of leguminous trees with high biomass production on highly unstable lixisols in zimbabwe was observed to improve physico-chemical soil properties [1] (table 1). in a study by bharati et al. [5] the soil organic carbon (%), mean weight diameter (mm) and soil water storage (mm) w e r e s i g n i f i c a n t l y i m p r o v e d under agroforestry systems compared to the conventional crop production systems (table 1). hence, incorporation of the perennial woody-trees species in an 41 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 agroecosystem can change both its physical structure and the flow and retention of nutrients in the system [5]. agroforestry can increase soil and crop productivity, and provide economic benefits to the farmers under different climatic zones [12]. besides, the agroforestry practices can modify the farming ecology which can be more important than the potential agricultural and economic benefits from the system [3]. these ecological benefits lie in figure 1. the natural farming regions (nr) of zimbabwe [9] table 1. effects of time and different agroforestry systems on the soil organic carbon (soc), mean weight diameter (mwd) and soil water storage (sws) in lixisols, zimbabwe time (years) agroforestry system soil property 1 2 3 4 5 6 lsd0.05(cs×t) improved fallow soc (%) 0.46 0.82 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.4 0.4 mwd (mm) 0.32 0.48 0.53 0.63 0.64 0.68 0.08 sws (mm) 19.3 25.2 35.5 36.8 37.9 39.1 1.1 alley cropping soc (%) 0.46 0.76 0.89 1.1 1.4 1.5 0.11 mwd (mm) 0.32 0.41 0.49 0.54 0.60 0.62 0.06 sws (mm) 19.3 23.5 27.5 33.2 35.2 36.1 1.3 rotational woodlots soc (%) 0.46 0.79 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.2 0.3 mwd (mm) 0.32 0.47 0.52 0.61 0.63 0.66 0.08 sws (mm) 19.3 24.8 29.8 35.6 36.8 37.2 1.2 conventional soc (%) 0.46 0.45 0.39 0.38 0.40 0.41 0.3 mwd (mm) 0.32 0.30 0.31 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.07 sws (mm) 19.3 20.1 19.6 19.3 18.4 17.8 1.3 *conventional= growing annual crops without trees. data adapted from fao [1]. 42 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 that inclusion of woody-tree species on farmlands which changes the physical structure, bio-diversity, and general functioning of these systems, transforming them into natural ecosystems than traditional farmlands that excludes trees. for instance, agroforestry can change the structure and function of agroecosystems e.g comparison of two types of coffee cultivation which are “shade coffee” and “sun coffee” [11]. however, the role of af in enhancing agricultural productivity in dry and marginalized areas has not been well quantified since very few studies on this were done. considering the continuous decline in crop productivity in the marginalized crop land (nr iv & v) of zimbabwe, non-conventional crop production systems e.g. agroforestry are required. this paper presents a comprehensive review and discussion of the: (1) adoption of agroforestry technologies and practices in zimbabwe, (2) describe the benefits of agroforestry inclusion in the dry regions of zimbabwe, and (3) provides an insight on some challenges in adopting agroforestry in the dry areas of zimbabwe. 2. agroforestry and biodiversity conservation higher biological diversity enhances agro-ecosystem stability and productivity, unfortunately, the simplification of farmland is a major factor of biodiversity loss and this reduces the provisioning of an ecosystem [3,15]. the af promotes the farmlands to create environmental, economic and social benefits, through combining high agricultural and biodiversity goals. the diversification of tree species can reduce seasonal variation in the provision of goods and services and thereby protect farmer incomes [4]. agroforestry farmlands are characterized by diversity both within (intraspecific diversity) and among trees (interspecific diversity) which can enhance the farm productivity as a whole [21]. agroforestry systems can be classified and traditional or modern depending on the designs involved (tables 2 & 3). the traditional af systems like home gardens and shifting cultivation (table 2) perfectly mimic the natural ecosystems and provide a variety of niches and resources that support a high diversity of plants and animals [13]. the traditional agroforestry systems are ecologically sustainable and diversify the livelihood of local communities hence are considered as excellent tools for biodiversity conservation [4,26]. whilst the modern agroforestry systems (table 3) is characterized by sets of standalone technologies that together form various land use systems in which trees are sequentially or simultaneously integrated with crops and/or livestock [21]. table 2. traditional agroforestry systems in zimbabwe agroforestry system description shifting cultivation there are fallows that are composed of multipurpose trees with high biodiversity in them; there are intense inter-and-intra-species interactions; normally long periods of 15-20 years enhance wild species diversity. forestry gardens/agroforestry it is characterized by high species diversity that is similar to the natural forestry though it may include a few carefully managed economically value tree species. trees on farmlands characterized by more inter-and intra-species diversity at the landscape level rather than at field level. parkland systems a variety of field crops are grown together with naturally propagated tress to enhance species diversity. home-gardens and compound farms are characterized by high inter-and intra-species diversity of many fruit trees, fodder, food crops, timber trees, medicinal and other plants of economic value to the farmer. table 3. modern agroforestry systems in zimbabwe agroforestry system description improved fallow mainly based on mono-tree species e.g. fertility improving tree species. fodder banks it is characterized by a sole stand of either shrubs/leguminous trees or high biomass producing grasses. it is a less diverse system. hedgerow intercropping/ alley cropping there are few tree species involved that are planted in alternating rows. tree based intercropping system it is less diverse as single species are planted. rotational woodlots they are established using a sole stand of fast-growing tree species for short-cycle harvest. the modern af technologies are generally developed using only a few selected tree species which are often mono-tree species systems, with high yielding, fast grown nitrogen fixing trees and arboreal structure in the communal areas of zimbabwe. this suggests that the modern af technologies reduce farm diversity and hence are vulnerable to pests. in africa, the af have prevailed despite persistent attempts to focus on monocropping of annual crops [12]. 43 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 understanding that trees on farms provide livelihood benefits is not new though the practical use and adoption of this system are relatively low [14]. in light of the recurring food shortages and projected climate change, the adoption of agroforestry can be a panacea to the effects of climate change on agricultural production in many parts of africa [20]. 3. adoption of agroforestry 3.1 farming system and practice of af in zimbabwe the bio-diversity within agroforestry can increase crop productivity and enhance resilience to climate change. nair et al. [3], concluded that mixed farming which combines wood-tree species with annual crops and/or vegetables can improve the farmland productivity. for instance, integration of crops such as coffee and rubber with trees, or in forest mosaics was observed to increase production by at least 30% compared to monocropping [13]. cocoa production was increased by 15% when shade-trees were included in the plantations compared to a single stand of cocoa crop. besides, their direct positive influence on yield and quality, the multipurpose trees can also provide timber, non-timber products like fruits, h o n e y, mushrooms and other products and ecosystem services at landscape levels [25]. agroforestry can be effective in land reclamation, mitigation of climate change as trees can sequester carbon from the atmosphere and secure rural livelihoods through provision of ecological and economic benefits [11]. in addition of leguminous trees such as acacia tortolis and adenanthera pavonina were noted to build the soil healthy and fertility and this could be very useful in the smallholder farming areas of zimbabwe since more than 72% of the land is characterized by inherently infertile soils [14]. crop production is low in such soils due to the low fertility therefore incorporation of the leguminous trees in the cropping systems will enhance productivity. the multipurpose trees can also provide ecosystem services and functions which are essential for environmental sustainability. however, the role of wood-trees species on farm productivity is still marginalized among the small-scale farmers in zimbabwe and has received scant attention [23]. this could be explained by the low adoption of agroforestry practices among the farmers regardless of some successful agroforestry stories. the low uptake of af practices could be due to reasons related to the performance of these af practices, the political and socioeconomic environment or simply farmers’ disposition towards trees on their farms [15]. parwada et al. [14], noted a low level of adoption in agroforestry technologies such as biomass transfer, improved fallow and soil fertility improving trees among communal farmers in buhera, zimbabwe. the major barriers to adoption were the lack of support through public policies for example poor seed policies, limited knowledge about the agroforestry and that agroforestry benefits are normally realized after a long period of time. in zimbabwe, agroforestry is excluded in recommendations for ensuring food security under climate change policy [24]. fortunately, some practices and technologies e.g. in tables 2 & 3 showed to be beneficial for rural development, buffer against climate variability, assist rural farmers adapt to climate change and mitigation to climate change [12]. in zimbabwe, the largest proportion of the community prefers to grow annual crops usually without trees because they believe the trees have a negative effect on their crop e.g shading resulting in poor crop growth [14]. the staple crops and non-food cash crops are grown in the treecleared main fields, and vegetables grown from small gardens usually along perennially flowing rivers. fruits either come from wildly growing trees or planted trees around the homesite [3]. a common practice on the communal farmlands is the clearance of trees within the field but few farmers may leave few sparsely spread indigenous fruit trees in their fields. this clearly shows that there is low biodiversity in the communal farming lands of zimbabwe and this could contribute to their low productivity hence food insecurity among the farmers. the farmers may keep livestock for the provision of inputs. the farmers usually apply manure in their fields every 4 to 5 years, where the multi-purpose trees are grown, the leaf litter will be the source of fertilizer. organic manure is the most appropriate type of fertilizer in areas low (<2%) in organic carbon like the communal lands in zimbabwe. 3.2 agroforestry systems in the zimbabwean communal areas the common agroforestry systems in zimbabwe are mostly not by farmer’s desire rather by default with a few systems that have been intentionally designed [14]. although agroforestry is an ancient practice, it remains unpopular among most farmers in zimbabwe [1]. generally, there are four agroforestry systems identified in zimbabwe, which are systems centered on (a) main fields (b) grazing areas (c) small garden plots and (d) home sites and home fields [3]. management of the agroforestry systems involves two major strategies that are the growing of exotic trees around home sites and in gardens, and the selective conservation of indigenous trees (mainly fruit trees) in main fields and grazing areas [12]. nevertheless, there is very little information about management of indigenous trees among the communal farmers as there is no care 44 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 given to these trees. however, the farmers are encouraged to diversify plants in their farms as this promotes crop productivity compared to monocultures. trees can occupy all the niches available in ecosystems, enabling the plants to be more effective in use of growth requirements such as soil nutrients, light and water [1]. the agroforestry trees can indirectly enhance crop productivity e.g by host pollinators required to pollinate cash crops such as butternut. intraspecific diversity within species enhances ecosystem functioning by increasing soil productivity and stabilizing the plant populations [15]. the intraspecific diversity has been utilized and tree improvements through breeding have been done for forest trees, but very little improvements have been done to get ideotype agroforestry trees species that can suit particular areas [1,3,12]. in planning an agroforestry system and capturing the production-enhancing niche approach, species suitability maps should be developed to analyze the distribution of different tree species, including locally available trees suitable for different ecological conditions [5]. nevertheless, research is still required in the designing of agroforestry systems that minimize negative interactions between the trees and annual crops and provides multi-benefits to the farmers. currently, the selection of agroforestry tree species is done without considering their interactions with the major crops on farmers’ fields (and vice versa) [23]. the interactions should be considered if sustainable productivity increases for the entire system are to be realized. indigenous tree species still remain a distinctive feature of some farmlands in zimbabwe but no planted trees are found in the main field area [3,16]. the trees are usually left primarily for their beneficial services such as fruits and shade. this agrees to matata et al. [28], who recorded about 80% edible fruit trees in the main fields of communal farmers in tanzania. this could explain the noted insignificant decrease in abundance of fruit trees even in the most deforested areas of zimbabwe [14,16]. however, bharati et al. [5], also recorded trees with non-edible fruits on farmlands and this showed that the trees may have other uses besides the provision of fruits. these trees (combretum imberbe, kirkia acuminata, colophospermum mopane) are used for shade. some trees are for social significance e.g. the parinari curatellifolia which are often used as meeting places and others have medicinal and/or spiritual significance to the farmers e.g. kigelia africana and pseudolachnostylis maprouneifolia. numerous multi-purpose trees can be used to improve soil and crop productivity in marginalized areas of zimbabwe through improvement of soil fertility e.g tephrosia vogelli and faidherbia albida and moisture conservation [12]. a study by du toit & campbell [16], showed that some multi-purpose trees had a positive influence on soil fertility and crop yield among the communal farmers in zimbabwe. however, the role of these trees in soil amelioration and crop production was somewhat controversial, as the effects were observed to be greatly modified by rainfall received in a particular area per any given season [17]. the trees could influence crop growth and productivity in many ways e.g through modification of fertility, light, moisture around the crop and foci for animals [5]. some farmers have since recognized these positive effects of including trees on farmlands and have restricted the application of fertilizers under the canopy (table 4). growing of trees together with maize was observed to gradually increase the maize yield with time under different agroforestry systems (table 4). the maize grain yield was increased by an average of more than 30% in year 1 to year 6 of practicing agroforestry (table 4). these results confirm to nair et al. [3] and rahn et al. [15], who also noted a gradual increase in maize grain yield with time under an improved fallow with calliandra calothyrsus. the fertility and crop yield benefits of agroforestry practices may however need not to be generalized and the growth performance of the trees in an agroforestry system influenced by climate and soil characteristics in a particular area. therefore, further research is required to quantify the effects of these trees on crop and soil productivity in particular climatic zones. table 4. effects of time and different agroforestry systems/cropping systems on maize grain yield (t·ha-1) under smallholder farmer management agroforestry system time (years) 1 2 3 4 5 6 improved fallow 0.51 0.62 1.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 alley cropping 0.40 0.53 0.84 0.96 1.4 1.6 rotational woodlots 0.50 0.61 1.0 1.8 1.9 2.1 conventional 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.85 1.2 lsd0.05(cs×t) 0.5 *cs = cropping system, t = time, *conventional= growing annual crops without trees: data obtained from fao [1] 45 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 planted or retained trees in grazing areas can modify the soil status either directly, through the use of litter for composting or indirectly, by their effects on the productivity and size of the cattle herd which influences higher quantities and better-quality manure production [16]. the indirect effect occurs largely because many dominant trees in the grazing areas can provide good browse e.g the julbernardia globiflora, colophospermum mopane and terminalia sericea. besides browsing, the savanna trees were found to enhance nutrition in grasses, to increase soil infiltration rate and moisture content, decomposition rate and the content of extractable p, n and organic matter in the soil by 2-5 times as compared to open areas [15,17]. in this regard, agroforestry can improve crop productivity in dry areas such nr iv & v of zimbabwe by modifying the soil hydro-properties. hence, food security can be achieved in these drier regions if the agroforestry can be promoted in these regions. briefly, agroforestry can reclaim the soil fertility, reduce erosion rates by increasing the organic matter content of the soils, fix n and recycle nutrients in these marginalized areas. the af can conserve both quantity and quality of soil water through increased infiltration and less surface runoff. agroforestry can reduce the rate of climate change through c sequestration in soils and in the woody biomass. thangata et al. [25], concluded that the total c in a silvopastoral system varied between 4 68 204 t ha-1, with soil storing the most c and the annual c increments varying between 1.8 to 5.2 t ha-1. suggesting that if well designed and managed agroforestry can be effective in reducing climate change in many parts of the world [15]. the inclusion of nitrogen-fixing trees e.g. acacia angustissima, gliricidia sepium, sesbania sesban and calliandra calothyrsus or deep-rooted trees and shrubs, increases n availability through biological-n-fixation (bnf), nutrient pumping from deeper zones and addition of soil organic matter. barrios et al. [19], concluded that tree roots can fix 1049 kg c ha-1 to 3304 kg c ha-1 and 41.5 kg n ha-1 to 133 kg n ha-1 which are sufficient for health growth of many tropical crops. low soil fertility is one of the major factors affecting crop production among the smallholder farmers in zimbabwe. the average crop yield continuously declined due to poor soil fertility and limited moisture in the nr iv and v (figure 1). many farmers in these semi-arid regions are poor and cannot afford to purchase fertilizers therefore integrating multi-purpose trees together with the annual crops can be a sustainable solution to the low fertility problem. nevertheless, there is limited research on the n availability under different agroforestry systems in zimbabwe however, most conclusions are generalized. this suggests that the information on the effects of these agroforestry systems on crop yield can also be general. therefore, it is prudent to quantify the available n fixed by a specific agroforestry system under specified environmental conditions as the n availability can be influenced by factors such as the inorganic soil n or aerobic n mineralization at 0 cm to 20 cm depth. crop yields were noted to be significantly higher under the n fixing trees than under other tree species or grass fallow [15]. 4. importance of agroforestry 4.1. water supply and water-use efficiency the agroforestry systems can be used to secure water supplies (quantity and quality) especially in drier farming regions but it is the least researched service function of agroforestry [28]. the trees can influence water cycling by intercepting the rain, increase transpiration and water retention in the soil, retards runoff and promoting infiltration. barrios et al. [19], observed that infiltration in areas under maize or soya was five times less than under riparian strips cultivated with a variety of plant and tree species. this suggests that trees had a much higher potential of limiting surface runoff thereby reducing the rate of contaminating substances reaching water bodies. in addition, the trees in agroforestry can conserve soil nutrients by reducing their loss through leaching [20,3]. therefore, agroforestry can reduce ground water contamination by agrochemical residues such as nitrate and other substances that are harmful to the environment and human health. this is in agreement to nair et al. [13], who noted that the micro-watersheds with agroforestry systems covering a large percentage of the soil surface had high quality water compared to non-agroforestry systems. 4.2 economic benefits of agroforestry the agroforestry can enhance the on-farm profitability among the smallholders. it promotes higher and more diversified income flows among the farmers from the sale of af products and services [21]. many studies on agroforestry have shown the benefits to farm profitability among the smallholder farmers in africa [22,25]. planting specific shrubs in fallow for two years and then cutting them back before growing maize for two to three years increased maize yields by more than 50% compared with planting continuous unfertilized maize [3]. livestock farmers can grow fodder shrubs for their animals which can increase production such as milk production by replacing relatively expensive purchased dairy meals thereby raising the farmers’ income [23]. agroforestry systems may pose specific challenges to farmers, however, if these constraints are removed, resource-conserving the agroforestry can sustain agricultural intensification by regulating eco46 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 system functions [22,19]. trees can create a microclimate around crops e.g by reducing temperature and increased humidity that buffers the effects of water stress caused by droughts and high rainfall variability thereby increasing crop productivity in ssa particularly in zimbabwe. 5. conclusions agroforestry provides a myriad of benefits such as soil fertility improvement, increasing soil water holding capacity, reduction of runoff and creation of microclimates that enhances crop productivity in the semi-arid regions. agroforestry in its many manifestations is a scalable option for improving farmers’ incomes, food and nutrition security with co-benefits for the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services and the environment. nevertheless, the roles of agroforestry on farmland productivity are still unclear among the smallholder farmers in zimbabwe. there is a need for integration of local ecological knowledge with sciences to further strengthen the usefulness of these agroforestry systems. the af can be used as a fundamental tool to increase farmland productivity and offers resilience to climate variability and other hazards, thus reducing production-associated risks among the smallholders farmers in zimbabwe. it is however important to note that the performance of an af system is site specific and there is need for research to quantify the effects of various af systems on soil and crop productivity in different agro-ecological regions. conflict of interest there is no conflict of interest. references [1] fao, 2014. the state of the world’s forest genetic resources. commission on genetic resources for food and agriculture. rome. [2] shepherd, k.d., shepherd, g., walsh, m.g., 2015. land health surveillance and response: a framework for evidence-informed land management. agricultural systems. 132, 93-106. [3] nair, p.k.r., kumar, b.m., nair, v.d., 2009. agroforestry as a strategy for carbon sequestration. journal of plant nutrition and soil science. 172, 10-23. [4] dawson, i.k., carsan, s., franzel, s., et al., 2014. agroforestry, livestock, fodder production and climate change adaptation and mitigation in east africa: issues and options. icraf working paper no. 178. nairobi, world agroforestry centre. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5716/wp14050.pdf [5] bharati, l., klee, k.h., isenhart, t.m., et al., 2002. soil-water infiltration under crops, pasture and established riparian buffer in midwestern usa. agroforestry systems. 56, 249-257. [6] chipomho, j., rugare, j.t., mabasa, s., et al., 2020. short term impacts of soil nutrient management on maize productivity and weed dynamics on a toposequence. heliyon. 6, e05223 1-11. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05223 [7] zingore, s., manyame, c., nyamugafata, p., et al., 2005. long-term changes in organic matter of woodland soils cleared for arable cropping in zimbabwe. european journal of soil science. 56, 727-736. [8] vincent, v., thomas, r.g., 1960. an agricultural survey of southern rhodesia: part 1: the agro-ecological survey. government printer, salisbury. 345 [9] chagonda, i., mugabe, f.t., munodawafa, a., et al., 2015. engaging smallholder farmers with seasonal climate forecasts for sustainable crop production in semi-arid areas of zimbabwe. african journal of agricultural research. 10(7), 668-676. doi: https://doi.org/10.5897/ajar2014. 8509 [10] jackson, j.e., turner, a.d., matanda, m.l., 1997. smallholder horticulture in zimbabwe, university of zimbabwe publications, harare, zimbabwe. [11] botero, j.e., barker, p.s., 2002. coffee and biodiversity; a producer-country perspective. coffee futures, cenicafe, colombia. pp. 2-11. [12] franzen, m., mulder, m.b., 2007. ecological, economic and social perspectives on cocoa production worldwide. biodiversity conservation. 16(13), 38353849. [13] priess, j.a., mimler, m., klein, a.m., et al., 2007. linking deforestation scenarios to pollination services and economic returns in coffee agroforestry systems. ecological applications. 17, 407-417. [14] parwada, c., gadzirayi, c., muriritirwa, w., et al. 2010. adoption of agro-forestry technologies among small-holder farmers: a case of zimbabwe. journal of development and agricultural economics. 2(10), 351-358. [15] rahn, e., läderach, p., baca, m., et al., 2014. climate change adaptation, mitigation and livelihood benefits in coffee production: where are the synergies? mitigation and adaptation strategy of global change. 19(8), 1119-1137. [16] du toit, r.f., campbell, b.m., 1989. environmental degradation. in: campbell b.m, du troit, r.f, and attwell, c.a.m (eds) relationships between the environment and basic needs satisfaction in the save catchment, zimbabwe. zambezia. university of zimbabwe. pp. 34-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05223 47 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 [17] alexandratos, n., bruinsma, j., 2012. world agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. esa working paper no. 12-03. rome, fao. [18] ajayi, o.c., catacutan, d.c., 2012. role of externality in the adoption of smallholder agroforestry: case studies from southern africa and southeast asia. in s. sunderasan (ed.), externality: economics, management and outcomes. ny: nova science publishers. pp. 167-188. [19] barrios, e., sileshi, g.w., shepherd, k., et al., 2012. agroforestry and soil health: linking trees, soil biota and ecosystem services. in d.h. wall, ed. the oxford handbook of soil ecology and ecosystem services. oxford, uk, oxford university press. pp. 315330. [20] pattanayak, s.k., mercer. d.e., 2002. indexing soil conservation: farmer perceptions of agroforestry benefits. journal of sustainable forestry. 15(2), 6385. [21] alfaro, r.i., fady, b., vendramin, g.g., et al., 2014. the role of forest genetic resources in responding to biotic and abiotic factors in the context of anthropogenic climate change. forestry ecological management. 333, 76-87. [22] bayala, j., sanou, j., teklehaimanot, z., et al., 2014. parklands for buffering climate risk and sustaining agricultural production in the sahel of west africa. current opinion in environmental sustainability. 6, 28-34. [23] franzel, s., wambugu, c., tuwei, p., 2003. the adoption and dissemination of fodder shrubs in central kenya. agricultural research and network series paper no. 131. london, overseas development institute. [24] mazvimavi, k., twomlow, s., 2009. socioeconomic and institutional factors influencing the adoption of conservation farming by vulnerable households in zimbabwe. agricultural systems. 101, 20-29. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2009.02.002 [25] thangata, p.h., mudhara, m., grier, c., et al., 2007. potential for agroforestry adoption in southern africa: a comparative study of improved fallow & green manure adoption in malawi, zambia & zimbabwe. ethnobotany research & applications. 5, 67-75. retrieved from www.ethnobotanyjournal.org/ vol5/i1547-3465-05-067.pdf. [26] phiri, d., franzel, s., mafongoya, p., et al., 2004. who is using the new technology? the association of wealth status and gender with the planting of improved tree fallows in eastern province, zambia. journal of agricultural systems. 79, 131-144. doi: http://dx.doi:10.1016/s0308-521x(03)00055-6 [27] mutua, j., muriuki, j., gachie, p., et al., 2014. conservation agriculture with trees: principles and practice. a simplified guide for extension staff and farmers. world agroforestry centre, (icraf) nairobi, kenya. [28] matata, p., ajayi, o.c., oduol, p.a., et al., 2010. socio-economic factors influencing adoption of improved fallow practices among smallholder farmers in western tanzania. african journal of agricultural research. 5(8), 818-823. doi: http://dx.doi:10.5897/ajar09.185 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2009.02.002 http://dx.doi:10.1016/s0308-521x(03)00055-6 http://dx.doi:10.5897/ajar09.185 54 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). received: 6 december 2022; received in revised form: 3 march 2023; accepted: 10 march 2023; published: 17 march 2023 citation: omeje, j.e., achike, a.i., nwabeze, g.o., et al., 2023. economic analysis of locally produced aquaculture feeds with complements of plant-based ingredients in kainji lake basin, nigeria. research on world agricultural economy. 4(1), 785. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.785 *corresponding author: julius emeka omeje, division of socio-economics and extension services, national institute for freshwater fisheries research, p.m.b. 6006, new bussa, niger state, nigeria; email: juliusomeje@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.785 research article economic analysis of locally produced aquaculture feeds with complements of plant-based ingredients in kainji lake basin, nigeria julius emeka omeje1* anthonia ifeyinwa achike2 godfrey o nwabeze1 lenient mercy o ibiyo3 samuel preye jimmy4 1. division of socio-economics and extension services, national institute for freshwater fisheries research, p.m.b. 6006, new bussa, niger state, nigeria 2. department agricultural economics, university of nigeria, nsukka, 410105, nigeria 3. fish nutrition unit, national institute for freshwater fisheries research, p.m.b. 6006, new bussa, niger state, nigeria 4. department of agricultural economics, extension and rural development, niger delta university, bayelsa state, 560103, nigeria abstract: optimization through cost minimization is a key strategy aquaculture feed producers adopt to ensure a continuous supply of fish in the global market. in light of this consideration, the study analyzed the economics of locally produced aquaculture feeds by complementing fishmeal with plant-based sources of ingredients. specifically, the study estimated the cost and returns, socio-economic determinants of net income, and challenges of local feed production. using a survey design, a case study approach was used to collect data from 36 aquaculture feed producers/millers. the data were presented using descriptive statistics, budgetary techniques, and two-stage least squares regression analysis. key findings established that the majority (78.12%) of aquaculture local feed producers were men, and 43.75% had tertiary educational qualifications with a good number of years of experience. the profitability indicators show that aquaculture local feed production is profitable with 3.24% net returns on investment. the result further indicates that the incorporation of plantbased sources of ingredients reduced the utilization of fishmeal (clupeids) by 50%. also, the regression analysis shows that the years of experience and initial capital investment were statistically significant (p < 0.05) determinants of net income while the major challenges in aquaculture local feed production were lack of perfect substitute for fishmeal (x = 2.94), government regulations on the harvest of clupeids used for fishmeal (x =2.91), poor access to capital (x = 2.88) and high cost of machine spare parts (x =2.88). based on the findings, it is recommended that fish nutritionists should intensify research on the production of fish feeds with a sole plant source of ingredients. keywords: aquaculture; feed; plant; fishmeal; economics http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.785 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.785 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8374-8887 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3854-7506 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3854-7506 55 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 1. introduction the contribution of aquaculture to fish-food production has been on a steady increase over the past decades while capture fisheries production has remained stagnated [1-3]. this is because fish is a primary source of protein, essential amino acids, fats, minerals and vitamins which necessitates the increase in demand for fish in response to a rising population growth [1]. it is estimated that this demand will continue to rise by more than 20 million tons over the next few decades in order to keep a constant per capita consumption [4]. according to fao [1], aquaculture is seen as the solution to the rising demand for fish. however, the success of aquaculture depends on the availability, affordability and formulation of aquafeeds (fish feeds) that contain the required level of protein and energy necessary for the growth of stocked fish [5]. it is estimated that approximately 70% of farmed fish in asia is raised with feed while the remaining 30% is raised through traditional unfed systems which rely on fertilization [1,3]. fishmeal (fm) tends to be the most reliable source of feed for cultured fish because it is considered to be a highly digestible source of bioavailable nutrients for cultured fish. however, the exploitation of fishmeal poses a serious economic and environmental concern. in kainji lake basin, nigeria, the use of beach seine nets for the harvest of clupeids, a major fishmeal ingredient in fish feed has attracted both national and international condemnation because of the obnoxious method used by fishers in its harvest. furthermore, from the an economic point of view, the rising cost of fishmeal as a result of an increase in the demand for fish has made the cost of feed for aquaculture a concern for the industry [1]. for example, the harvests of marine ingredients by foreign vessels in west africa have limited the access and affordability of marine resources for local consumption by the poor and vulnerable communities [6,7]. for this reason, an alternative source of protein and energy mainly from the plant was proposed. soybean meal combined with other sources such as rice bran, wheat bran and corn flour along with fish waste to produce low-cost pelleted fish feeds using indigenous machinery (pelletizer, crusher, mixer, etc.), was found to be a close substitute for fishmeal. however, such an alternative is known to have a lower nutritional value than fishmeal [8]. plant-based sources of feeds for cultured fish are readily available in the global market and have shown to have suitable nutritional profiles as they possess the ability to compete with fishmeal [9-12]. this is because the availability of local ingredients attracts labour from the household at a lower opportunity cost, thus reducing the overall cost of production and increasing the resulting profit margins [5]. this was supported by mmanda et al. [13] that in an attempt to reduce the cost of production, fish farmers relied on locally available feed ingredients to supplement the diets of farmed fish. hence, the identification and use of cheap, locally available ingredients would improve the longterm sustainability of aquaculture. however, blanchard et al. [14], froehlich et al. [15], malcorps et al. [16], roberts et al. [17] reported that the transition towards the use of plant resources in combination with the rise in aquaculture output could potentially add more pressure on the necessary agricultural resources with resultant socioeconomic and environmental impacts. for example, according to world bank [18], the exploitation of soya beans for both human and animal needs has resulted in a two-fold increase in the global market price for soya beans between 2000 and 2018. however, irrespective of this resultant price surge, the use of plant sources for fish feed formulation remains the closest alternative to the high cost of fishmeal. the cost related to fish feed remains a major issue, especially among small-scale fish farmers in the aquaculture industry [19]. this is because feed accounts for over 70% cost of producing a table-size fish [20,21]. however, to maximize profit through cost minimization, there has been a substantial improvement in the technology of processing locally pelleted fish feeds in recent years. the use of hand mixing has been replaced with a well-modernized model of indigenous machinery comprising a crusher, pelletizer, mixer, etc. this technology can be set up at the fish farm sites, while the composition of the mixed ingredients and the size of the pelleted feed can be changed considerably depending on the age and specie of farmed fish. in light of these considerations, this study is limited in economic analysis of locally produced aquaculture feed used in kainji lake basin. jewel et al. [5] analysed the economic return among different low-cost feed types while rashid and kurt [19] carried out a techno-economic analysis of extruded aquafeeds. nwabeze et al. [22] on the other hand, analysed the profitability of fish production in kainji lake basin; hence, the need to evaluate the socioeconomic determinants of net income by this study used a two-stage least square technique. it is based on this background the study analysed the economics of locally produced aquaculture feeds in kainji lake basin nigeria. specifically, the study: i. examined the socio-economic characteristics of the local fish feed producers; ii. estimated the cost and returns in local fish feed production; iii. evaluated the effects of the socio-economic factors on net income; and iv. identified the challenges of local fish feed production. 56 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 2. materials and methods 2.1 study area kainji lake basin is situated within latitudes 9°50’ and 1°55’ north and longitudes 4°23’ and 4°51’ east niger and kebbi state, nigeria [23]. the area has huge potential for aquaculture development with catfish and tilapia species the dominant aquaculture species cultured in the area [23,24]. kainji lake comprises about 316 fishing communities demarcated into 3 strata namely: upper stratum (northern basin), middle stratum (central basin) and lower stratum (southern basin). however, aquaculture activities actively take place in the lower stratum (southern basin) which in turn, promotes the activities of other value chains such as feed milling, processing and marketing. 2.2 procedure for data collection and analysis a case study approach was used in this study. due to the limited number of feed millers in the area, a census was conducted and 36 feed producers or millers formed the population of the study. these feed millers were concentrated in three (3) communities which include wara, new bussa and monai communities. from the communities identified, 18 feed millers from new bussa, 16 feed millers from monai and 2 feed millers from wara communities made up the respondents of the study. primary data were collected with questionnaires that were administered through an interview schedule. data collected were presented using descriptive statistics such as mean, percentages and bar charts. the budgetary technique was used to estimate the profitability indices in the feed while a two-stage least square regression analysis was used to evaluate the socioeconomic determinants of net income. the models are specified as thus. 2.3 profitability indices net income after tax (niat) niat= revenue-total expenses (1) net profit margin net profit margin= mean, percentages and bar charts. the budgetary technique was used to estimate the profitability indices in the feed while a two-stage least square regression analysis was used to evaluate the socioeconomic determinants of net income. the models are specified as thus. 2.3 profitability indices net income after tax (niat) niat= revenue-total expenses (1) net profit margin net profit margin=     ∗ 100 (2) where, revenue=unit price* quantity sold return on investment return on investment =       *100 (3) 2.4 two-stage least square regression analysis a two-stage least-square regression analysis was used to address the failure of the structural equation in ordinary least-squares regression to give consistent parameter estimates. the failure is a result of the violation of an essential condition of regression analysis, i.e. the error term must be uncorrelated with the independent variables. the structural equation is specified thus: y= βo+ β1x1 +b2x2 + β3x3 + β4x4 + β5x5+ε (4) where, y = net income (n), x1 = years in school (years), x2 = experience (years), x3 = age (years), x4 = initial capital (n), x5 =household size (number) and ε = error term. however, x1 is endogenous because it correlates with an immeasurable variable “ability” that is accounted for by ε. an instrumental variable “parents’ income” was uncorrelated with ε; hence, used for the estimation of the reduced form of the equation using two-stage least square regression analysis as specified thus: x1= πo + π1zi + π2x2 + π3x3 + π4x4 + π5x5 (5) where, zi = parents’ income and π1 ≠ 0. 2.5 liker-type rating scale (2) where, revenue=unit price* quantity sold. return on investment return on investment = mean, percentages and bar charts. the budgetary technique was used to estimate the profitability indices in the feed while a two-stage least square regression analysis was used to evaluate the socioeconomic determinants of net income. the models are specified as thus. 2.3 profitability indices net income after tax (niat) niat= revenue-total expenses (1) net profit margin net profit margin=     ∗ 100 (2) where, revenue=unit price* quantity sold return on investment return on investment =       *100 (3) 2.4 two-stage least square regression analysis a two-stage least-square regression analysis was used to address the failure of the structural equation in ordinary least-squares regression to give consistent parameter estimates. the failure is a result of the violation of an essential condition of regression analysis, i.e. the error term must be uncorrelated with the independent variables. the structural equation is specified thus: y= βo+ β1x1 +b2x2 + β3x3 + β4x4 + β5x5+ε (4) where, y = net income (n), x1 = years in school (years), x2 = experience (years), x3 = age (years), x4 = initial capital (n), x5 =household size (number) and ε = error term. however, x1 is endogenous because it correlates with an immeasurable variable “ability” that is accounted for by ε. an instrumental variable “parents’ income” was uncorrelated with ε; hence, used for the estimation of the reduced form of the equation using two-stage least square regression analysis as specified thus: x1= πo + π1zi + π2x2 + π3x3 + π4x4 + π5x5 (5) where, zi = parents’ income and π1 ≠ 0. 2.5 liker-type rating scale (3) 2.4 two-stage least square regression analysis a two-stage least-square regression analysis was used to address the failure of the structural equation in ordinary least-squares regression to give consistent parameter estimates. the failure is a result of the violation of an essential condition of regression analysis, i.e. the error term must be uncorrelated with the independent variables. the structural equation is specified thus: y= βo+ β1x1 +b2x2 + β3x3 + β4x4 + β5x5+ε (4) where, y = net income (n), x1 = years in school (years), x2 = experience (years), x3 = age (years), x4 = initial capital (n), x5 =household size (number) and ε = error term. however, x1 is endogenous because it correlates with an immeasurable variable “ability” that is accounted for by ε. an instrumental variable “parents’ income” was uncorrelated with ε; hence, used for the estimation of the reduced form of the equation using two-stage least square regression analysis as specified thus: x1= πo + π1zi + π2x2 + π3x3 + π4x4 + π5x5 (5) where, zi = parents’ income and π1 ≠ 0. 2.5 liker-type rating scale a 4-point likert-type scale rating technique was employed to achieve part of objective (iv) in this study. respondents gave qualitative responses which were rated as very serious challenge (vsc), serious challenge (sc), mild challenge (mc) and not serious challenge (nsc) with corresponding values of 4, 3, 2, and 1 respectively. the mean score of the respondents based on the 4-point rating scale was computed as specified below: 4 3 2 1 2.50 4 + + + = a 2.50 cut-off point using the interval scale of 0.05 was adopted; the upper limit cut-off point was 2.50 + 0.05 = 2.55 while the lower limit cut-off point was 2.50 – 0.05 = 2.45. based on this, any score below 2.45 (ms < 2.45) was taken as a weak factor and not considered while those with a mean score of above 2.55 (ms > 2.55) were taken as strong factors and considered. 3. results and discussion 3.1 socio-economic characteristics of aquaculture local feed producers the result of the socio-economic characteristics of aquaculture local feed producers is presented in table 1. from the results of the analysis, 53% of the feed producers were within the age bracket of 31-40 years, while 43.75% and 3.13% were between the age of 41-50 and 2130 years respectively. the mean age was 39.78, which indicates that the majority of the feed producers were within the economically active age group that a good sign for 57 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 the further development of the fish in the feed producingindustry. omeje, sule and aguihe [20] reported that entrepreneurs within the economically active age possess the potential to expand their businesses for higher income. this result is similar to the result of nwabeze et al. [22] that fish feed producers in kainji lake basin had a mean age of 41 years. hence, one can see that the aquaculture local feed producing industry has witnessed an influx of young people who have taken up the responsibility of investing in local feed production. the result shows that the majorities (78%) of the feed millers were men, 3.13% were women and 18.75% were male youths. this clearly shows that the feed-producing industry in kainji lake basin is dominated by men. this is in consonance with the result of nwabeze et al. [22] that the majority (89.7%) of fish feed producers were male. although the representation of the youths in the industry is quite commendable, the women on the other hand, had a low representation in the industry probably due to the high capital and labour-intensive nature of the operation. the result for experience shows that 56.25% of the feed producers had an experience of 1-5 years, 34.38% and 9.37% had been in the aquaculture feed-producing business for 6-10 and 11-15 years respectively. it’s interesting to note that feed producers with longer years of experience will capitalize on their wealth of knowledge and skills gained for the sustainability of their enterprise and profitability. this supports the report of onyekuru et al. [21] that a long year of experience is a necessary prerequisite for high productivity. also, good years of experience in networking with other actors in the value chain can be an added advantage with respect to participation and benefiting from any form of intervention in the value chain. the result for years in school and level of education shows that the majority (59.38%) of the feed producers spent between 11-15 years in school with 40.63% and 43.75% attaining the secondary and tertiary level of education respectively (table 1). this shows that the feed producers have attained a good level of education to read, understand and take an informed decision which can be a positive factor in adopting new techniques in the feed-producing industry. this agrees with the statement of ogunmefun and achike [25] on the relevance of a high level of education in the adoption of new techniques. in addition, a good level of education is an asset to support learning and training to acquire technical knowledge and skills to improve the efficiency of production. 3.2 estimation of cost and returns in aquaculture feeds the result for the estimates of cost and returns is presented in table 2 and table 3. the result showed that an estimated initial cost of n5,482,644 was incurred by the local feed producers with a total operational expense of n11,686,580.9 per month while the average revenue was n12,065,455 per month. the net income received was n378,874.1 per month which indicates that the local aquaculture feed producers receive a higher return in excess of operation cost. this indicates that the business of local fish feeds production is profitable as supported by the result of nwabeze et al. [22] that fish feed enterprises make profits per unit kg of fish feed produced. also, profitability indicators show that the net profit margin was 3.14% which implies that for every n1 received as revenue, the aquaculture feed producers received 3.14 kobo as profit while the return on investment (roi) of 3.24% indicates that for every n1 invested in the local fish feed business; 3.24 kobo was received as return on investment. the benefit cost ratio (bcr) was 1.03, indicating that the business of local fish feed production is viable. jewel et al. [5] affirmed that a bcr of > 1 is an indication of viability in fish feed, thus implying that local fish feed producers operate a viable business through innovation and utilization of local ingredients for feed formulation and production. table 1. socio-economic characteristics of aquaculture local feed producers (n = 36). variable percent mean age (years) 21-30 31-40 41-50 >50 gender men (male > 35 years) women (female > 35 years) youths (male/female < 35 years) experience (years) 1-5 6-10 11-15 >15 years in school (years) 6-10 11-15 16-20 >20 level of education primary secondary tertiary 3.13 53.12 43.75 0.00 78.12 3.13 18.75 56.25 34.38 9.37 0.00 25.00 59.38 15.62 0.00 15.62 40.63 43.75 39.78 6.41 12.58 source: field survey, 2020. 58 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 in addition, the analyzed data show that the use of plant-based sources of ingredients as complements of fishmeal has reduced the cost of using fishmeal as the sole protein source of ingredients by 50%. this means that there is a trade-off between the use of these ingredients in order to ensure the sustainability of aquaculture as well as the protection of natural bio-resources. hence, giving credence to hassaan et al. [9], davies et al. [10], el-husseiny et al. [11], goda et al. [12] that plant sources of ingredients have suitable nutritional profiles as they possess the ability to compete with fishmeal. 3.3 socio-economic determinants of net income in aquaculture local feed production the socio-economic determinants of net income are presented in table 4. the ols estimates showed that the variables: years in school, experience and initial capital investment were positive and statistically significant determinants of net income at a 5% level of significance. however, due to the presence of endogeneity with the variable “years in school” which was assumed to be correlated with an immeasurable variable “ability”, a twotable 2. fixed cost schedule in aquaculture local feed production. item average quantity cost (n) lifespan (years) salvage value (n) depreciation (n) land building hammer mill crusher pelletizer bowls spreading mats rakes total 1 plot 1 bungalow 1.03 1.15 1.21 5.23 4.16 2.54 887878.79 2545454.55 489393.94 375757.58 1148456.06 3727.27 28727.27 3248.48 5482644 20 18 15 15 5 3 3 750000 150000 150000 550000 500 1500 500 89772.73 18855.22 15050.51 39897.07 645.45 9075.76 916.16 174212.90 source: computation from field survey, 2020. note: straight line method of computing depreciation = (total cost-salvage value)/lifespan. table 3. cost and return analysis of aquaculture local feed production. item mean number mean unit price/ ton (n) total price/cost (n) share of total cost (%) revenue (n) a. working days/month b. tons/day c. price/ton tr/m = (c*b*a) expenses/month groundnut cake (gnc) soybean fishmeal(clupeids) energy (maize or millet) ascorbic methionine premix electricity bill levy water depreciation labour total net income = revenue-total expenses net profit margin return on investment (roi) benefit cost ratio (bcr) 24.00 2.1 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.4 1 1 50.4 1 4.2 239393.94 34000.00 35500.00 114545.45 34212.12 1936.36 2293.94 3000 5151.52 515.15 218.18 174212.90 21236.36 12065455.00 1713600.00 1789200.00 5823490.68 1724290.85 97592.54 115614.58 151200.00 5151.52 515.15 2520.00 174212.9 89192.71 11686580.93 378874.07 3.14% 3.24% 1.03 14.66 15.31 49.83 14.75 0.84 0.99 0.04 0.004 0.02 1.49 1.29 0.76 100 source: computation from field survey, 2020. note: total price=mean unit price * mean numbers. 59 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 stage least square (2sls) regression analysis was conducted with an instrumental variable (iv) “parent’s income”. this is because the higher the income of the respondents’ parents, the more likely they will spend more years in school ceteris paribus. the resultant analysis of the 2sls shows that experience was positive and statistically significant (p < 0.05) on net income. this means that an increase in the years of experience will increase the net income of aquaculture local feed producers. similarly, onyekuru, ihemezie and chima [21] reported that individuals with long years of experience are expected to be more productive than those with shorter years of experience. this is because exposure to product management through the years is an indication of mastery, technology adoption and utilization of scarce resources for profitability. also, the variable for initial capital investment was positive and statistically significant (p < 0.05) on the net income of aquaculture local feed producers. this implies that the higher amount invested in fixed and variable assets will result in an increase in the net income of aquaculture local feed producers. the amount invested as initial capital is an indication of the level of capacity the firm can manage at a specific period of time. eke and effiong [26] posited that capital accumulation is a positive determinant of output, hence implying that enterprises with a higher investment in initial capital will generate more revenue with a resultant net income than firms with lower investment in initial capital. the r-square was 0.8022 which means that the socio economic variables used in this analysis account for about 80% of the variation in the net income of aquaculture local feed producers. 3.4 challenges in aquaculture local feed production the challenges in aquaculture local feed production are presented in figure 1. from the result of the likert-type scale analysis, the lack of a perfect substitute for fishmeal (x =2.94), government regulations on the harvest of clupeids used as fishmeal (x =2.91), poor access to capital table 4. socio-economic determinants of net income. ols estimates 2sls estimates variable coefficients t coefficients t years in schools experience age initial capital household size 0.2175 0.2584 0.3326 0.1671 0.0221 2.19* 3.80** 1.40 2.71* 0.42 0.4123 0.2602 0.2373 0.1500 –0.0731 1.56 3.60** 0.88 1.97* –1.05 constant r-squared prob>f 8.1339 0.8091 0.000 8.51** 8.4701 0.8022 0.000 8.76** source: computation from field survey, 2020. *significant at 0.05, **significant at 0.01. figure 1. challenges of aquaculture local feed production. source: computation from field survey, 2020. note: >2.5 = serious challenge. 60 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 (x = 2.88) and high cost of machine spare parts (x = 2.88) were found as serious challenges in aquaculture local feed production. although the use of plant sources has been largely used in local feed production, the feed producers still consider the incorporation of fishmeal (clupeids) a very important ingredient in aquaculture local feed production. this is because of the nutritional components of fishmeal and fish oil in addition to its high level of digestibility for cultured fish [1]. furthermore, regulations by the government in the conservation of fish species in kainji lake basin have placed local feed producers in disarray of finding a perfect substitute for clupeids. this calls for extensive research on the production of fish feed with plant sources as sole ingredients. also, nwabeze et al. [22] reported that poor access to credit facilities and the high cost of replacing worn-out machine parts were among the leading challenges encountered by fish-feed producers. generally, significant capital is required to operate a feed mill [27], this is because the feed mill components such as pelletizers, silos, crushers, hammer mills, etc are quite expensive to procure. in addition, these implements are mostly imported, hence necessitating the need for local fabrication of worn-out parts for the sustainability of aquaculture local feed production. 4. conclusions and recommendations the study established that the majority of aquaculture local feed producers were men, who had tertiary educational qualifications with a good number of years of experience. the profitability indicators show that aquaculture local feed production is profitable with high net returns on investment. also, the result shows that the use of plant-based sources of ingredients reduces the utilization of fishmeal in feed production by 50%. furthermore, the results of the regression analysis indicate that the years of experience and initial capital investment were significant determinants of net income while the major challenges in aquaculture local feed production were the lack of a perfect substitute for fishmeal, government regulations on the harvest of clupeids used for fishmeal, poor access to capital and high cost of machine spare parts. from the findings of this study, it is recommended that fish nutritionists should intensify research on the production of fish feeds with a sole plant source of ingredients. also, local fabrication of feed mill components should be encouraged through the training of technical engineers and local fabricators. authors contributions omeje, j.e. (35%): conceptualization, research design, data collection and reporting. achike, a.i. (20%): supervision. nwabeze, g.o. (15%): data collation. ibiyo, l.m.o. (15%): supervision. jimmy, s.p. (15%): data analysis. funding this study was funded by the research and technical division of national institute for freshwater fisheries research. data availability the data used for this study are available on request from the corresponding author. conflict of interest there was no conflict of interest at every stage of this research. references [1] food and agriculture organization (fao), 2018. the state of world fisheries and aquaculture. rome, italy [internet]. available from: https://www.fao.org/ documents/card/en/c/i9540en/ [2] pauly, d., zeller, d., 2016. catch reconstructions reveal that global marine fisheries catches are higher than reported and declining. nature communications. 7, 1-9. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10244 [3] tacon, a.g.j., metian, m., 2017. food matters: fish, income, and food supply—a comparative analysis. reviews in fisheries science & aquaculture. 26(2), 1-14. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/23308249.2017.1328659 [4] magalhães, r., sánchez-lópez, a., leal, r.s., et al., 2017. black soldier fly (hermetia illucens) pre-pupae meal as a fish meal replacement in diets for european seabass (dicentrarchuslabrax). aquaculture. 476, 79-85. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2017.04.021 [5] jewel, a.s., husain, i., haque, a., et al., 2018. development of low cost formulated quality feed for growth performance and economics of labeo rohita cultured in cage. aacl bioflux. 11(5), 1486-1494. 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[25] ogunmefun, s.o., achike, a.i., 2017. socioeconomic characteristics and constraints of pond fish farmers in lagos state, nigeria. agricultural science research journal. 7(10), 304-317. [26] eke, i.c., effiong, j.a.l., 2016. the effects of capital accumulation on crop production output in nigeria. international journal of agriculture and earth science. 2(3), 62-81. [27] alagoa, y., elo, o., andrew, u., et al., 2011. a report on aquaculture value chain analysis in the niger delta 2011 foundation for partnership initiatives in the niger delta (pind) 1 st floor st. james building, 167 ademola adetokunbo crescent, wuse ii, abuja, nigeria. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/anu.12846 http://www.sarf.org.uk/cms-assets/documents/232492-618987.sarf106.pdf http://www.sarf.org.uk/cms-assets/documents/232492-618987.sarf106.pdf https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/gem-commodities https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/gem-commodities http://www.fao.org/fi/static-media/meetingdocuments /cifaa/cifaa17 http://www.fao.org/fi/static-media/meetingdocuments /cifaa/cifaa17 http://www.fao.org/fi/static-media/meetingdocuments /cifaa/cifaa17 15 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://journals.nasspublishing.com/index.php/rwae copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.865 received: 26 may 2023; received in revised form: 29 june 2023; accepted: 7 july 2023; published: 13 july 2023 citation: eshbel, a., adicha, a., tadesse, a., et al., 2023. demonstration of improved banana (william-1 variety) production and commercialization in nyanghtom district of south omo zone, southern ethiopia. research on world agricultural economy. 4(3), 865. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.865 *corresponding author: atlaw eshbel, crop research directorate, jinka agricultural research center, p.o.box 96, jinka, ethiopia; email: atlaweshbel243@gmail.com research article demonstration of improved banana (william-1 variety) production and commercialization in nyanghtom district of south omo zone, southern ethiopia atlaw eshbel1* asmera adicha2 anteneh tadesse1 awoke tadesse1 yibrah geberemeskel3 1. crop research directorate, jinka agricultural research center, p.o.box 96, jinka, ethiopia 2. agricultural economics and gender research directorate, jinka agricultural research center, p.o.box 96, jinka, ethiopia 3. livelihood division, lowland reliance project, jinka, south omo, ethiopia abstract: a demonstration of improved banana production and commercialization was conducted in the nyanghtom district of the south omo zone to enhance the livelihoods of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in the area. one improved banana variety (wiliyams-1) was used for the demonstration and planted on one hectare of land after training was given for purposively selected 25 trial pastoral agro-pastoral research and extension groups and 7 nontrial agro-pastorals from land preparation to harvesting. relevant data through individual interviews and measurement of agronomic parameters were collected. the collected data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and likert scale measurement of agro-pastoral preference. based on the results, the mean banana fruit produced was 28.4 ton ha–1 under agro-pastoral management and also agro-pastoral preference indicated that the variety wiliyam-1 was the first choice of agro pastorals in all parameters except drought resistance. cost-benefit analysis results indicated that the average net income obtained from banana production was 209,647 ethiopian birr ha–1. the cost-benefit ratio of 2.95:1 indicated that the benefit of production was nearly three times higher than the cost of production. however, agro-pastoral raised the frequent breakdown of water pumps, lack of operation and maintenance skills, and the high cost of fuel to operate generators and tractors were major bottlenecks to sustaining production. therefore, strong efforts of respective stakeholders are needed to resolve irrigation water access problems for sustainable banana production and commercialization to ensure food security and improve the livelihoods of women and agro-pastorals. keywords: banana; agro-pastoral; demonstration; preference; papreg http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.865 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.865 mailto:atlaweshbel243@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7433-6733 16 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 1. introduction the banana (musa paradisiacal var. sapiertum) is one of the most popular monocotyledon herbaceous fruit plants which are grown throughout tropical humid areas [1]. in 2020, the world production of bananas was 120 mt from the cultivating land of 5.2 million hectares [2]. it is the fourth-largest global food commodity and is considered to be one of the most important to food security for 400 million people in producing countries [3]. banana fruits are known for their high nutritional values, sugar and vitamins a, b and c, as well as minerals, particularly potassium, calcium, sodium and magnesium [4]. in ethiopia, banana production is concentrated in the southern and southwest regions and the major produce comes from small-scale growers for home consumption and the national market as well as a source of income. recently, 898,354.81 tone bananas were produced from 95,954.13 hectares of land in ethiopia and about 118,536.81 tones of banana production are found from 15,358.74 hectares in the southern nations nationalities and peoples regional state (snnprs) [5]. on the other hand, banana production in the south omo zone of snnr is mainly produced in home gardens and used for home consumption rather not for commercial purposes. however, recently the promotion of different irrigation systems, which is linked with the production of fruits and vegetables all over the country, banana production in the south omo zone especially in lowland areas is coming into outlining and a recent year later it is expanded to dasenech district of south omo zone [6]. because of the high temperature and exclusive access to omo river banks, it is blessed with favorable soils for the production of fruit crops. however, beyond to use of those resources properly for crop production, residents are suffering for food insecurity [7]. towards that, jinka agricultural research center (jarc) has introduced and evaluated banana varieties in the pastoral area of the south omo zone to alleviate food insecurity and nutrient deficiency problem. the report of jinka agricultural research center’s unpublished data indicated that dwarf cavendish and william-1 banana varieties were identified as high-yielding and adapted varieties in lowland areas of the south omo zone. but those selected improved banana varieties are not well promoted and commercialized all over pastoral areas of the south omo zone. making use of improved technologies, adaptable crops, high-yielding cash crops and linking to market access may help to cope with food insecurity and would enhance the income status of the pastoral and agro-pastoral households in the area. to this end, jinka agricultural research center in collaboration with different partners is one of the major efforts extended to promote and commercialize improved banana variety in the pastoral and agro-pastoral area of south omo zone. thus, the objective of this study was to demonstrate improve (william-1) banana variety production in the nyanghtom district of the south omo zone and to establish orchards for sucker multiplication. 2. material and methods 2.1 the description of the study area the present study is conducted at nyanghtom district of the south omo zone, snnpr in the year 2022/2023 cropping season. the district has 20 kebele administration (1 urban and 19 rural) covering 2652 km2 and located at 4.850-5.670 n and 35.750-36.230 e. the total human population of the districts is 22,562, of which 11,375 are male and 11,187 are female according to population projection by the central statistical agency [5]. the population density is estimated to be 8 persons per km2. the district is bounded to the north by bench maji zone and salamago district, to the south by dasenech district, to the east by hamer district, and to the west by kenya and south sudan. the agroecology of the district is lowland, with an altitude that ranges between 300 and 450 m.a.s.l. the mean annual temperature of the district ranges between 33 and 420 °c. the rainfall in the district is erratic and the mean annual rainfall ranges from 350 to 500 mm. livestock production is the dominant livelihood source whereas beekeeping and fishing are also important income sources in the district. the second most important source of livelihood is opportunistic crop production with an overflow of the omo river. but recently, sorghum, maize, haricot bean, onion and banana are the major crops produced in the area. more importantly, the district does have huge potential for the production of bananas due to the availability of the omo river for irrigation. 2.2 pastoral agro-pastoral research and extension group (papreg) member formation and identification of technology demand before the demonstration of this improved banana variety production and commercialization in the study area there was community-level problem analysis with the papregs and nonbeneficiary’s pastoral and agropastoral research group members. in this regard, 25 pastorals were grouped into one papreg which was composed of 12 males and 13 females based on interest in the topic, willingness and capability of managing trials and consensus among the members. group discussion with trial papregs and non-trial agro pastorals was done to analyze the problems in the production and demand of the 17 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 papregs for the technology. 2.3 site selection the study site was selected in discussion with district experts of livestock and fishery resources, agriculture and natural resources, pastoral and agro-pastoral affair, lowland resilient project and researchers of the jinka agricultural research center. one kebele was identified namely narogoy for initial demonstration purposes and used for further teaching and learning of other kebeles which was taken into consideration the possibility of clustering of agro-pastoralist, land and irrigation access. 2.4 design and varieties one selected banana variety (wiliam-1) was planted with a single large plot that contain 100 * 100 m. the land was divided into 25 equal parts with 12 * 44 m for each papreg member. row planting method was employed and spacing of 3 m * 3 m between inter and intra-spacing. full recommended management packages for banana production (improved variety, row planting, weed management, irrigation scheduling and, etc.) were conducted. 2.5 training and promotion technique the training on agronomic practices and irrigation water use was given to selected trial paprgs and non-trial agro-pastoralists, development agents and administrators of the kebele to enhance awareness and skills on field management and all other banana agronomic practices and postharvest handling before starting panting. the field visit was conducted just the crop is coming to the maturity stage. trial papregs members, non-trial agro-pastoralists, experts and other relevant stakeholders were invited to acquire experience and learn about improved banana cultivation. 2.6 implementation process, field management, and follow up first, the selected site was cleaned by human power and prepared for plantation using a tractor. a total of one hectare was ready for 25 papregs, each having a share of 0.04 ha of land to plant. after land preparation was well done, holes of 60 cm in width, depth and length were manually prepared using a spacing of 3 m * 3 m for square planting. healthy 1111 suckers were planted at the prepared hole. since the area is arid, irrigation was applied using furrow irrigation. water was applied at 3-day intervals at the initial stage and once within a week after the canopy was covered uniformly. re-shaping of holes and earthling up around the crop was done to prevent the outbreaking of irrigated water and conserve water near the plant. weeding was performed when weeds occurred. after planting the sucker, researchers from jinka researcher center, and experts from the zone and district of low land resilient project office conducted frequent followups and evaluated the progress. feedback regarding the weakness and strengths of each papreg were given to further improve the management and irrigation water access. this feedback gave the lesson to strengthen those with weak management of their plot and share good experiences with those with good management of their plot. moreover, at different stages of production, regional coordinators of the low land resilient project and southern agricultural research institute conducted follow-up, and evaluation and gave feedback. all these coordinated efforts resulted in the successful demonstration and production of improved banana variety production in the study area. 2.7 data datasets and recording important data sets collected include papregs variety preference of improved banana, frequency of harvest, number of bunches per harvest, the total number of bunches per hectare, the weight of bunch per kilogram and the selling price of a one-kilogram banana. data was collected by measuring each parameter with a data collection sheet and face-to-face interviews with papregs using structured questionnaires. moreover, lessons learned and feedback on important attributes of improved banana production technology were collected through group discussions with papregs. the organization of groups was based on the interest of papregs to participate in the discussion regarding improved banana production technology and the group constituted ten different social members such as elders, women and youth pastorals. 2.8 data reporting system this study used both quantitative and qualitative data sets. quantitative data includes frequency of harvest, number of bunches per harvest, the total number of bunches per hectare, the weight of bunch per kilogram and the selling price of a one-kilogram banana, and analyzed using simple descriptive statistics (percentage, mean and maximum and minimum). qualitative data sets include papregs’ variety preference of improved bananas and constraints of banana production were analyzed using the likert scale and ranking. the benefit-cost ratio was used to analyze the profit from the production of bananas in the 18 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 study area. 3. results and discussion 3.1 household characteristics of papregs an effort was made to assess the household characteristics of the sample respondents as shown in table 1. consequently, about 46.9% and 53.1% of the papregs of banana production technology were males and females respectively. this indicates that women were more participated than men in pastoral and agro-pastoral research and extension groups. furthermore, the low land resilient project encourages women’s participation in every activity they implement to improve their income-earning capacities. different studies reported that women participate more than men in horticultural crop cultivation [8-10]. moreover, the study by hidosa et al. [11] reported that agro-pastoral women participate in panicum grass production more than men as they are nearer to providing livestock feed. the mean age of the respondent was 36 years indicated the papregs involved in banana production technology are productive. regarding the education level of the papregs, the mean grade achieved was grade one. this implies that the beneficiary’s education achievement is very low and there is a dominance of illiteracy in the area as the study area is pastoral and agro-pastoral area. the minimum and maximum family size of papregs was two and nine. the mean family size of the respondent was 6. this implies that family size in the household has some role in the labor force to engage in different incomegenerating activities like banana production in addition to livestock production activities. a similar finding was reported by tadesse et al. [12] that the average family size of the households is 6 persons in the nyanghtom district. it is clear that the district has huge potential for water and land resources for banana production using the omo river, but yet they have not been involved in improved banana production. recently jinka agriculture research center in collaboration with low land resilient project introduced improved bananas and demonstrated them to the agro-pastoral. thus, the papregs have one-to-twoyear experiences in improved banana production. this implies that they are new to the improved banana production technology and enough training and strong support was provided to them to successfully produce and get benefits. the minimum, maximum and mean numbers of family members who engaged in banana production technology were 1, 7 and 3 persons. this implies that the banana production technology in the study area created more jobs for household members. thus, household members who engaged in banana production technology generate income and reduce the number of family members who have no job thereby improving their livelihood. 3.2 banana production status and its importance on livelihood improvement the production status of improved bananas is juvenile that previously they do not have a practice of improved banana production technology. however, they do have a small practice of local banana production using the omo river for irrigation. as to key informant discussion with district experts planted bananas had also spread in the area and were incorporated into development plans by pastoral and agro-pastoral affairs, agricultural office, jinka agricultural research center, lowland livelihood resilient project and other development projects. more importantly, the production area that banana early planted area was increased from one to three hectares. this implies that the demand for improved banana production technology is increasing and has some contribution to livelihood improvement for pastoral and agro-pastoral households. the papregs who are expanding their land indicated that they are solving the sucker shortage problem in their area and selling and sharing the sucker with other neighboring agro-pastoral. as indicated in table 2, all papregs (100%) agreed that they don’t have banana sucker access table 1. household characteristics of sample respondents. attributes of respondents frequency percent sex of household male 15 46.9 female 17 53.1 min max mean std. dev. age of respondent (year) 25 55 36 8.53 family size (number) 2 9 6.4 2.19 education status (grade) 0 11 1.27 2.98 banana production experience (year) 1 2 1.21 2.84 household member engaged in banana production (number) 1 7 2.53 1.43 source: own survey, 2023. 19 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 previously but now there is no sucker access problem in their area to produce and distribute. inclusively, this indicates banana sucker shortage problem is not a problem now for both the papregs and non-papregs in the area. the reason for not cultivating previously was a lack of knowledge regarding improved banana production technology. as reported by papregs, about 78.1, 15.6 and 6.3% were due to lack of sucker, awareness and support from different stakeholders respectively. moreover, they indicated there are different benefits of cultivating improved bananas such as household income source, food and livestock feed. about 84.4 percent of papregs reported that the importance of cultivating improved bananas was highly improving whereas 15.6 percent reported slowly improving. this implies that the majority of papregs realized the importance of cultivating improved bananas as their livelihood improvement activity. this finding is identical to the findings of adhikari et al. [13] who reported cultivation of bananas enhanced household income and improved the livelihoods of producers. 3.3 household income analysis of banana production as far as access to irrigation water is not a problem for agro-pastoral, it is easy to cultivate bananas using irrigation. once they planted the banana sucker, they frequently water as per plant water requirement and effectively manage weeds, then they do have a continuous harvest of the fruit or duplicate the banana sucker to the surrounding. once banana planting was established in the area, it has taken 9 months to cut the first banana fruit and later the average harvesting frequency was nearly 1.8 times in a year in the area if properly managed and access irrigation water. however, after first harvesting, later harvesting frequency depends on irrigation water access and weed management, and the minimum, maximum, and average harvesting frequency of improved banana per year in the study area is 1, 2 and 1.8 times respectively. the mean bunch produced per ha/year was 710 bananas bunch and on average each weighs 22.2 kg. this means that the mean amount of bananas produced was 28,371.6 kg per hectare in the area under agro-pastoral management (table 3). this indicates that the mean yield of bananas was 284 quintals or 28.4 tons per hectare which is a far better yield than in the study by dawit and asmare [14] who reported the mean productivity of bananas is in the range of 10 to 20 tons per hectare under farmer management. this might be due to the virgin land which is not previously cultivated, the favorable environment, improved variety, and irrigation water access. the minimum and maximum price of bananas was 8 and 10 ethiopian birr (etb) per kilogram respectively with a mean price of 9.73 etb per kilogram. the mean sucker sold by an individual household in a year was 307 and the minimum and the maximum sucker were 125 and 550 respectively. each sucker cost the mean of 14.5 etb and the minimum and the maximum price per sucker were 10 and 20 etb respectively in the production season 2022. the mean income from the sale of the banana fruit per hectare and the sucker was 276,055.7 and 4,551 etb respectively in the production season 2022. the mean total income from the sale of the banana fruit per hectare and the sucker was 280,606.7 etb in the production season of 2022. the minimum and maximum total income per individual household generated from the sale of the banana fruit per hectare and sucker were 61,250 and 571,000 etb (table 4). this implies that agro-pastoralists who were able to manage improved banana production effectively may generate a maximum income of more than half a million in a single production year per hectare and could harvest continuously as banana is a perennial fruit crop. 3.4 cost of improved banana cultivation all costs of improved banana cultivation were recorded by researchers and experts at the implementation site. the main cost items recorded were planting material (sucker), site cleaning and land preparation, planting sucker, irtable 2. status of banana production in the area. attributes freq percent access to improved banana sucker yes, now 32 100 no, so far 32 100 reason for not cultivating banana lack of sucker 25 78.1 lack of awareness 5 15.6 lack of support 2 6.3 importance of cultivating improved banana highly improving 27 84.4 slowly improving 5 15.6 source: own survey, 2023. 20 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 rigation, weeding management and harvesting. thus, the average cost of improved banana production per hectare was 70,959 etb. all the cost items purchased and labor per day prevailed by the current market price at the time of production season. the cost of the sucker was 16,665 etb per hectare and also others all well described in table 5. 3.5 net income from improved banana cultivation table 6 describes the net income of banana cultivation in the study area. the average net income obtained from banana production in one production season was 209,647 etb per hectare in the study area. this income is the income obtained after the first harvest that has taken nine months after planting and later continuous harvest. this indicates that any agro-pastoral who participated in improved banana production would have a mean net income of 209,647 etb per hectare. besides, the ratio of benefit to cost (2.95:1) indicated that agro-pastoral households may get benefit from improved banana production nearly three times higher than the cost of production. this finding suggests that agro-pastoral households who invest in improved banana production would get better income in a single production season and further expand the production of bananas using suckers around the mother plant. and also, this is the most profitable business in the area that would encourage new agro-pastoralists to start with improved banana production to absorb the benefits of this profitable initiative. this finding is in line with others that banana cultivation is an economically profitable investment because of the higher positive returns earned [15-17]. table 3. mean fruit yield and yield-related parameters of the improved banana variety. parameters min max mean day to 50 % of 1st cycle harvesting 268 290 279 harvesting frequency per year 1 2 1.8 bunch produced/ha/year (number) 500 875 710 weight of bunch (kg) 15 32 22.2 fruit yield per hectare (tone) 7.5 56 28.4 source: own survey, 2023. table 4. income from improved banana cultivation/yield/ha/year. attributes min max mean total fruit yield/ha/ year (tone) 7.5 56 28.4 price of banana per kg (etb) 8 10 9.73 sucker sold per household/ha/year (number) 125 550 307.5 price per sucker (etb) 10 20 14.8 income from the sale of a fruit per hectare (etb) 60,000 560,000 276,055.7 income from the sale of sucker per hectare (etb) 1,250 11,000 4,551 total income (etb) 61,250 571,000 280,606.7 source: own survey, 2023. table 5. cost of improved banana production per ha. expense items measurement quantity unit cost (etb) total cost (etb) sucker number 1111 15 1111*15 = 16,665 land preparation fuel by liter 150 69.36 150*69.36 = 10,404 planting person per day 25 100 25*100 = 2,500 irrigation round 50*4 100 50*4*100 = 20,000 weeding management round 10*15 100 10*15*100 = 15,000 harvesting frequency 1.8*710*5 100 1.8*710*5 = 6,390 total cost 70,959 source: own survey, 2023. 21 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 table 6. net income from banana production. income and cost of production mean (etb) gross income 280,606.7 cost of production 70,959 net income 209,647.70 benefit: cost ratio 2.95:1 source: own survey, 2023. 3.6 extension services and training on improved banana production technology access to extension services has been improved over time due to a result-oriented extension approach in which agro-pastoral could see the yield difference of introduced banana production technology compared to the local one. implementation of any new agricultural technology needs an effective approach and papregs need to be conscious and responsive to effectively use the given technology and also has got information through extension agents [18]. information sources about improved agricultural technologies are development agents, agro-pastoral-to-agropastoral and experience sharing in the district. as shown in figure 1, they indicated that the training and extension service on improved banana production technology by the jinka agricultural research center, lowland livelihood resilient project and district office of agriculture was very important. thus, the training helped them to cultivate improved banana and realized benefit through income generation and household food sufficiency. in addition, about 90% of the papregs reported they are satisfied with the training and extension services provided by different stakeholders whereas 10% did not satisfied. as presented in figure 2, all papregs (100%) participated in the banana demonstration trail by jinka agricultural research center whereas about 30% of the respondents get extension services from development agents. this indicated that the extension provision regarding banana production by the development agent is weak. moreover, about 70% of both trial papreg and non-trial agropastoral were involved in the collaborative training by the jinka agricultural research center and lowland resilient project whereas 86% of the respondents participated in final pastoral and agro-pastoral field days. this shows that pastorals and agro-pastoral in the area are participating in different pieces of training from different stakeholders. 90 10 0 50 100 yes no pe rc en t satisfaction on training and extension service figure 1. satisfaction with training and extension services. 3.7 agro pastoralists’ trait preference for improved banana production the objective of the demonstration is not only to maximize yield but to improve papregs’ involvement in selecting technologies that fulfill their preference for sustainable technology diffusion [19]. thus, agro-pastorals identified six common preference parameters to compare improved bananas (william-1 variety) with local variety. the parameters were weighted according to their impor100 30 70 86 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 de mo ns tra tio n t ra ils by ja rc de ve lop me nt ag en t f oll ow up ja rc an d l lr p t ra ini ng ag ro pa sto ra l fi eld da ys by ja rc & ll rp pe rc en t participation on training and extension service system figure 2. method of training & extension delivery system. 22 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 tance to be used as a comparison, then technology with a greater percentage of the total was selected as the primary choice. the overall weighted ranking matrix result shows that improved banana (william-1) was the first choice of agro pastorals in all parameters except drought resistance whereas their local variety is the first choice only in drought resistance (table 7). this implies that their local variety is not productive as the improved one but they still appreciate the local variety in drought resistance as compared to the improved variety. however, as the study area is agro-ecologically classified as dry land and described by recurrent rainfall shortage and their production practice of banana is with irrigation from omo river by motor pump. agro-pastoral given high score for early maturation, disease resistance and marketability of improved banana as compared to the locally available banana variety. 3.8 constraints of banana production the frequent breakdown of water pumps is the main constraint that hinders the production of bananas in the area. as the production is based on irrigation water access and lack of water due to pump breakdown order the plant to dry. thus, the pump and generator breakdown are ranked as the first serious problem and operation and maintenance skills in irrigation systems are a basic necessity for sustainable use of the water lifting device and accessing water for production. the high cost of fuel to operate generators and tractors is another constraint that hinders the production of bananas and is ranked as the second most serious problem. as they are agro-pastoral, they are not capable enough to purchase fuel and the supporting organization in the district are getting on a budget shortage as the recent price of fuel is so high. the study by asmera et al. [18] and hidosa et al. [11] reported that the high cost of fuel is the changing factor of panicum production in the dasenech district. on the other hand, the lack of skills in the maintenance of generators and water pumps is the third important constraint that hinders banana production in the area. thus, a lack of operation and maintenance skills in irrigation systems for water lifting devices may cause the failures of sustainable production using irrigation and may be associated with food insecurity problems in irrigation-based production-dependent areas. extensive drought is the key factor that causes the banana to dry and hinders sustainable production. the papregs reported that the recurrent drought is the fourth serious problem that hinders banana production and lets them to food insecurity. market linkage is another important constraint of banana production as output markets are the main driving force for the products to be sold [20-22] and ensure the economic feasibility of irrigation projects and ensure sustainable production and economic returns. failure of the market for irrigation-based agricultural products like bananas may cause the failures of irrigation projects and challenges the sustainable use of irrigation. lastly, they reported that the lack of enough training and support on the production and irrigation of water by districts and stakeholders hinders banana production in the study area (table 8). important lesson promotion of new technology to pastoral and agro astral through the papreg approach was very important for easiness of communication and contact with any number of papregs at once to demonstrate improved technology. moreover, it was effective for common problem identification, practical and participatory way of working on the ground, creating awareness and ownership of that technology, sustainable use of demonstrated technology and strengthening the team spirit between papreg, extension workers and researchers for the common objective. table 7. preference of agro-pastoral on improved banana (william-1) and local variety. improved (william-1) local parameters score weight score*weight score weight score*weight early maturity 3 1 3 1 1 1 disease/pest/resistance 3 2 6 1 2 2 taste 3 3 9 2 3 6 fruit size 3 5 15 1 5 5 drought resistance 2 6 12 3 6 18 marketability 3 4 12 2 4 8 sum of score*weight 57 40 rank 1 2 score = (1 = fair, 2 = good, 3 = v. good) & weight = (1 = early maturity, 2 = disease resistance, 3 = taste, 4 = marketability, 5 = fruit size, 6 = drought resistant. 23 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 4. conclusions and recommendation the finding of this study indicated that the demonstration of improved banana production and commercialization in the areas has improved the economic status of the papreg and non-trial agro-pastoral and contributed to reduce the food security issues through the sale of banana fruit, sucker and feed biomass of bananas after harvesting. moreover, the papreg approach to the demonstration was effective as it is an easy way of identifying practical problems on the ground, creating awareness, ownership of that technology, sustainable use of demonstrated technology and strengthening the team spirit among papreg members. the mean banana fruit produced was 28.4 tons per hectare in the area under agro-pastoral management. the average net income obtained from banana production in one production season was 209647 etb per hectare in the study area. besides, the ratio of benefit to cost (2.95:1) indicated that agro-pastoral households would get benefit from improved banana production nearly three times higher than the cost of production. moreover, the agropastoral preferred improved banana (william-1) over the local in all parameters except drought resistance whereas their local variety is the first choice only in drought resistance. however, agro-pastoral raised the frequent breakdown of water pumps, lack of operation and maintenance skills, and the high cost of fuel to operate generators and tractors are major problems to sustain production. therefore, strong efforts of respective stakeholders are needed to resolve irrigation system problems mainly the supply of easy water lifting devices for sustainable banana production and commercialization to ensure food security and improve the livelihoods of women and poor agropastoral in the area. additionally, it could be concluded that papregs should be involved in further expansion and linked with different market outlets like etfruit and other national or regional markets to enhance their income. author contributions mr. atlaw eshbel developed a proposal and defended, secured the budget, conducted the field experiment, trained beneficiaries and arranged field days, collected all field data, analyzed, and interpreted the result, and wrote the manuscript. mr. asmera adicha prepared data collection sheets, collected data, analyzed, and interpreted the result, and wrote the manuscript. mr. anteneh tadesse secured land, conducted the field demonstration, and arranged the field day and field data collection budgets mr. awoke tadesse was involved in planting, monitoring and evaluation, arranged field day and collected all field data yibrah geberemeskel was involved in monitoring and evaluation, field day events and arranged field data collection budgets. funding this research work was done with funds obtained from lowland livelihood resilient project aimed to improve the women and poor agro-pastoral household income and ensure food security in the nyanghtom district of south omo zone, pastoral areas of southern ethiopia. acknowledgement special thanks go to the lowland livelihood resilient project office of the southern region, south omo and nyanghtom district office of the project for the logistic support and southern agricultural research institute jinka agricultural research center for making a conducive environment to conduct this research work. data availability data used for this study are available in the text and can be accessed from the corresponding author upon request. table 8. constraints of banana production in the area. constraints of banana production the level of constraints very serious medium serious score index rank the generator and water pump break down 22 8 0 87 0.196 1 high cost of fuel to operator generator and tractor 16 14 0 81 0.182 2 market linkage problem 6 20 4 67 0.151 5 lack of skills in maintenance of generator & pump 12 18 0 77 0.173 3 lack of training and support 12 6 12 65 0.146 6 extensive drought 7 19 4 68 0.153 4 note: the value is given for the level of constraints: very serious = 3, medium = 2, serious = 1. 24 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 conflict of interest there is no conflict of interest among authors. references [1] nayar, n.m., 2010. the bananas: botany, origin, dispersal. horticultural reviews. 36(3), 117-164. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470527238.ch2 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[10] tripathi, p.c., 2015. analysis of participation of women in horticultural activities. journal of business management & social sciences research. 4(3), 241-244. [11] hidosa, d., adicha, a., sultan, m., 2022. production and commercialization status of improved panicum grass cultivation in the lowland livestock production system of south omo south-western ethiopia. research on world agricultural economy. 3(4), 12-24. [12] tadesse, a., adicha, a., yoseph, t., et al., 2023. cluster-based improved sorghum production and commercialization in nyangatom woreda of south omo zone, southern ethiopia. research on world agricultural economy. 4(1), 62-72. [13] adhikari, a., paudel, b., pokhrel, a., 2022. banana production status and its role on income generation and livelihood improvement in chitwan, nepal. international journal of applied sciences and biotechnology. 10(2), 93-98. [14] dawit, a., asmare, d., 2008. banana markets in ethiopia [internet]. available from: http:// publication.eiar.gov.et:8080/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/68/banana%20market.pdf [15] mohiuddin, m., hasan, m.r., miah, m.m., 2020. profitability analysis of cultivation of banana cultivars sabri and sagar in some areas of narsingdi district. bangladesh journal of agricultural research. 45(2), 175-183. [16] ghimire, s., koirala, b., devkota, s., et al., 2019. economic analysis of commercial banana cultivation and supply chain analysis in chitwan, nepal. journal of pharmacognosy and phytochemistry. 5(1), 190-195. [17] memon, n.i., hakimzadi, w., sanaullah, n., et al., 2016. economic analysis of banana production under contract farming in sindh pakistan. journal of marketing and consumer research. 25(1), 14-21. [18] adala, a., alemayehu, y., darcho, d., 2022. determinants of adoption of improved panicum forage by agro-pastorals in dasenech district, southern ethiopia. journal of agriculture and environmental sciences. 7(2), 9-24. [19] abate, g.t., francesconi, g.n., getnet, k., 2014. impact of agricultural cooperatives on small holders technical efficiency: empirical evidence from ethiopia. annals of public and cooperative economics. 85(2), 257-286. [20] woldu, z., ali, m., derbew, b., et al., 2015. assessment of banana production and marketing in ethiopia. international journal of sciences: basic and applied research (ijsbar). 24(3), 283-307. [21] rane, a.a., bagade, s.r., 2006. economic of production and marketing of banana in sindhudurg, maharashtra. indian journal of agricultural marketing. 20(1), 38-45. [22] begum, j.a., raha, s.k., 2002. marketing of banana in selected areas of bangladesh. economic affairs calcutta. 47(3), 158-166. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470527238.ch2 https://www.fao.org/3/cc3421en/cc3421en.pdf https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2023-03/2023-global-market-report-banana.pdf https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2023-03/2023-global-market-report-banana.pdf https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/5757166 https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/5757166 https://doi.org/10.12691/jfs-9-2-6 http://publication.eiar.gov.et:8080/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/68/banana%20market.pdf http://publication.eiar.gov.et:8080/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/68/banana%20market.pdf http://publication.eiar.gov.et:8080/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/68/banana%20market.pdf 25 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://journals.nasspublishing.com/index.php/rwae copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). 1. introduction in the lao pdr, which is primarily an agrarian society, agriculture, and forestry contribute to 30% of the country’s gdp and employ over 75% of the workforce. the agriculture development strategy 2025 has identified bananas as a prioritized crop for agricultural exports. in 2020, bananas hold significant importance as one of the key crops, with an estimated production of 385,000 tons. the development of commercial banana production, largely driven by chinese investments, brings economic benefits and employment opportunities, particularly in the northern region of lao pdr. approximately 88% of the exported bananas were shipped to china, while the redoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.862 received: 20 may 2023; received in revised form: 25 june 2023; accepted: 5 july 2023; published: 14 july 2023 citation: wongpit, p., inthakesone, b., sisengnam, k., et al., 2023. investigating the role of the cultivated banana value chain as a potential source of sustainable income for local communities in lao pdr. research on world agricultural economy. 4(3), 862. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.862 *corresponding author: piya wongpit, faculty of economics and business management, national university of laos, p.o.box 7322, vientiane, lao pdr; email: p.wongpit@nuol.edu.la research article investigating the role of the cultivated banana value chain as a potential source of sustainable income for local communities in lao pdr piya wongpit* bounmy inthakesone keuangkham sisengnam pakaiphone syphoxay faculty of economics and business management, national university of laos, p.o.box 7322, vientiane, lao pdr abstract: cultivated bananas have gained attention due to the environmental and social impacts of cavendish bananas in the northern part of laos. this study investigated the value chain of cultivated bananas and its implications for sustainable income generation. basic statistical analysis was used to assess the value added by cultivated bananas, while stakeholder analysis and value chain mapping were used to identify key actors and relationships. the determinant of commercialization is observed through the regression model and the impact of commercialization is investigated through the second stage regression. the study found that the banana value chain in laos is driven by the export market. farmers generate the highest profit, but they receive the lowest distribution of value-added. banana commercialization can significantly increase the income of farmers, but the impact is not equal for all farmers. bananas are a sustainable income source for households in laos, and they have the potential to be promoted in high-value markets if the farmers create new products and improve skills of management, marketing, and finance with the support from government policies. keywords: cultivated banana; value chain; commercialization http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.862 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.862 mailto:p.wongpit@nuol.edu.la https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6437-2645 26 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 maining 12% were sent to thailand. in recent years, the demand for bananas in neighboring countries has increased, leading to a rapid expansion of banana production and area in lao pdr. one of the banana types that is being heavily invested in lao pdr is cavendish, which is a high-yielding variety that requires extensive use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides. the use of these chemicals has had significant negative impacts on both the environment and the wellbeing of workers and consumers. the use of chemicals in banana production can have several negative impacts on the environment, workers, and consumers. environmental impacts include water pollution, soil contamination, and ecosystem damage. worker health impacts include respiratory problems, skin problems, and cancer. consumer health impacts are less wellunderstood, but there is some evidence that exposure to chemicals in bananas can cause health problems. workers on banana plantations are often from impoverished communities and may have a limited understanding of safe chemical handling practices. this puts them at even greater risk of exposure to harmful chemicals. the costs of healthcare and environmental rehabilitation may outweigh the benefits of income generation and job opportunities from banana production [1]. due to concerns over the spread of fusarium wilt in cavendish banana plantations in northern laos, cultivated banana varieties known locally as “kuay nam” have gained increased attention [1]. cultivated bananas play a crucial role in the agricultural sector of lao pdr, providing food security and income generation opportunities for local communities. traditionally, banana plants grew naturally in backyards or small farms for household consumption and animal husbandry. however, in recent years, there has been a growing interest in commercializing kuay nam bananas due to their high yields and resistance to pests and diseases. there has been limited research on the potential of the cultivated banana value chain to provide sustainable income for local communities. to address this gap, this study focuses on investigating the role of the cultivated banana value chain in supporting sustainable income for communities in the provinces of houaphan, vientiane, savannakhet, and salavan. several studies have been conducted to analyze value chains in the lao pdr. for instance, wongpit and sisaphanthong [2] examined the value chain of organic vegetables in vientiane capital and found limited value addition and processing due to small market size, lack of knowledge, and low consumer awareness. in another study, small-scale agro-enterprise development in the upland [3] analyzed the cultivated banana value chain in the poukoud district, xieng khuang province, identifying challenges such as insufficient inputs and equipment for farmers. however, with access to funding, farmers were able to increase production and sales, highlighting the significance of middlemen in connecting farmers to the market. the commercialization of agricultural products is a priority policy of the lao government. farmers are being encouraged to change from traditional production methods to more commercial practices, such as expanding production and processing their products. the government is providing support to farmers in this transition, such as providing access to credit and training on commercial production techniques. the commercialization of agriculture is expected to benefit both farmers and the economy. farmers will be able to increase their incomes, and the economy will benefit from increased exports. the impact of agricultural commercialization on livelihoods and food access in the lao pdr has been analyzed by wright [4]. the study highlights policy-driven shifts from traditional to intensive agriculture and increased demand for agricultural products from neighboring countries. these developments have expanded markets and facilitated smallholder access to markets through improved road infrastructure. goletti [5], bouahom et al. [6] and setboonsarng et al. [7] have discussed commercial crop production, there has been a lack of comprehensive examination and quantification of the determinants and implications of agricultural commercialization in the lao pdr, particularly for crops like cultivated bananas. this paper aims to describe and analyze the value chain of cultivated bananas in domestic and foreign markets, filling the gap in existing research. to analyze the effects of commercialization on local incomes, this study focuses on the cultivated banana value chains, examining their organization, key actors involved, value added throughout the process, and potential opportunities. 2. material and methods the methodology employed in this study involved the use of value-chain analysis to examine the cultivated banana industry in four provinces. the value chain analysis includes stakeholder analysis, value chain mapping, and value-added. the objective of value chain analysis is to break down the chain into its individual components to gain a better understanding of its structure and functioning [8]. a preliminary value-chain framework was developed based on existing studies, reports, and consultations with researchers. stakeholders were then invited to participate in a focused group discussion where the draft value chain was presented and explained. valuable input and sugges27 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 tions from the participants were incorporated, leading to the revision of the value chain and the identification of key bottlenecks. the determinants of commercialization were analyzed through a regression model. there are many discussions about what agriculture commercialization is and how to measure commercialization. govereh et al. [9] suggest that agriculture commercialization is the proportion of sold products to total production and commercialization can be measured along a continuum from zero (total subsistenceoriented production) to unity (100% production is sold). the measurement of the commercialization of agricultural pre is expressed as the equation below: commercialization = sale value production value (1) the agricultural product in this paper refers to cultivated bananas. the sale value is the value of cultivated bananas that farmers sell to middlemen or exporting companies. production value is the value of cultivated banana production by farmers. the equation model to identify the determinants of banana commercialization is as follows: (100% production is sold). the measurement of the commercialization of agricultural pre is expressed as the equation below:  =     (1) the agricultural product in this paper refers to cultivated bananas. the sale value is the value of cultivated bananas that farmers sell to middlemen or exporting companies. production value is the value of cultivated banana production by farmers. the equation model to identify the determinants of banana commercialization is as follows:  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 +  (2) household income,  , is a function of instrumented agricultural commercialization (�), labor, capital, and land; a vector of household characteristics (); and a government policy variable, .  = 1 + 1� + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 62 + 73 + 84 +  (3) the definition and measurement of variables in equations (2) and (3) are explained in table 1. table 1. definition and measurement of the variables. (100% production is sold). the measurement of the commercialization of agricultural pre is expressed as the equation below:  =     (1) the agricultural product in this paper refers to cultivated bananas. the sale value is the value of cultivated bananas that farmers sell to middlemen or exporting companies. production value is the value of cultivated banana production by farmers. the equation model to identify the determinants of banana commercialization is as follows:  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 +  (2) household income,  , is a function of instrumented agricultural commercialization (�), labor, capital, and land; a vector of household characteristics (); and a government policy variable, .  = 1 + 1� + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 62 + 73 + 84 +  (3) the definition and measurement of variables in equations (2) and (3) are explained in table 1. table 1. definition and measurement of the variables. (2) household income, ii, is a function of instrumented agricultural commercialization ( (100% production is sold). the measurement of the commercialization of agricultural pre is expressed as the equation below:  =     (1) the agricultural product in this paper refers to cultivated bananas. the sale value is the value of cultivated bananas that farmers sell to middlemen or exporting companies. production value is the value of cultivated banana production by farmers. the equation model to identify the determinants of banana commercialization is as follows:  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 +  (2) household income,  , is a function of instrumented agricultural commercialization (�), labor, capital, and land; a vector of household characteristics (); and a government policy variable, .  = 1 + 1� + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 62 + 73 + 84 +  (3) the definition and measurement of variables in equations (2) and (3) are explained in table 1. table 1. definition and measurement of the variables. ), labor, capital, and land; a vector of household characteristics (hi); and a government policy variable, pi. (100% production is sold). the measurement of the commercialization of agricultural pre is expressed as the equation below:  =     (1) the agricultural product in this paper refers to cultivated bananas. the sale value is the value of cultivated bananas that farmers sell to middlemen or exporting companies. production value is the value of cultivated banana production by farmers. the equation model to identify the determinants of banana commercialization is as follows:  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 +  (2) household income,  , is a function of instrumented agricultural commercialization (�), labor, capital, and land; a vector of household characteristics (); and a government policy variable, .  = 1 + 1� + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 62 + 73 + 84 +  (3) the definition and measurement of variables in equations (2) and (3) are explained in table 1. table 1. definition and measurement of the variables. (100% production is sold). the measurement of the commercialization of agricultural pre is expressed as the equation below:  =     (1) the agricultural product in this paper refers to cultivated bananas. the sale value is the value of cultivated bananas that farmers sell to middlemen or exporting companies. production value is the value of cultivated banana production by farmers. the equation model to identify the determinants of banana commercialization is as follows:  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 +  (2) household income,  , is a function of instrumented agricultural commercialization (�), labor, capital, and land; a vector of household characteristics (); and a government policy variable, .  = 1 + 1� + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 62 + 73 + 84 +  (3) the definition and measurement of variables in equations (2) and (3) are explained in table 1. table 1. definition and measurement of the variables. (3) the definition and measurement of variables in equations (2) and (3) are explained in table 1. data for the study were collected through a household survey conducted in four provinces: houaphan, vientiane, savannakhet, and salavan. banana production has increased significantly in recent years, particularly in vientiane province, salavan province, and savannakhet province. in xanakham district, vientiane province, which is located in the central part of laos, most of the bananas are sold to vientiane capital or exported to thailand. some of the bananas are also processed into banana crisps and solar-dried bananas. salavan province is in the southern part of lao pdr where most of the bananas are exported to thailand. some bananas are also used to produce whiskey or processed into banana fiber for handicrafts. however, the demand for these products is low. in houaphan province, which is in the northern part of laos and shares a border with vietnam, the commercialization of cultivated bananas is at an early stage. the main obstacles to the expansion of banana production are the lack of a market, the high costs of materials and transportation, and the limited availability of land. in savannakhet province, bananas table 1. definition and measurement of the variables. variable definition measurement c commercialization ratio the ratio of the value of the banana sale to the total production value where rank from 0 to 100 gen gender gender of the head of the household where 1 is male and 2 is female age age age of head of household edu education year of education of the head of household exp experience year of experience in the banana plantation mem member of household number of members in the household dm distance to market distance from farm to market in kilometers df distance to farm distance from home to farm in kilometers lni natural logarithm of to income of the household total income of a household in million lao kip (lak) per year   predicted commercial ratio predicted commercial index derived from equation (2) lnl natural logarithm of labor number of workers used to cultivate bananas lnk natural logarithm of capital value of capital use in the banana farm in million lak per year lns natural logarithm of land land area of the banana farm measuring in hectares p policy dummy variable for policy support where 1 if received support and 0 otherwise d1 dummy variable for houaphan 1 is houaphan and 0 otherwise d2 dummy variable for vientiane 1 is vientiane and 0 otherwise d3 dummy variable for savannakhet 1 is savannakhet and 0 otherwise d4 dummy variable for salavan 1 is salavan and 0 otherwise   error term 28 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 are mainly planted in the xepon district, near the border with vietnam. most of the bananas are exported to china through vietnam. the selection of districts within each province was based on recommendations from provincial authorities actively promoting agriculture commercialization. random sampling methods were used to select households, middlemen, and banana processors for interviews. the survey questionnaires covered various topics such as respondent information, revenue, production costs, market accessibility, and financial access. the interviews aimed to gather the necessary information. table 2 shows the sample size which consists of 474 households involved in banana cultivation, along with 8 middlemen and 9 banana processors. table 2. sample size across the different categories. provinces farmers middlemen processors houaphan 111 2 2 vientiane 251 3 3 savannakhet 73 2 3 salavan 36 1 1 total 474 8 9 source: authors’ survey in 2017. 3. results 3.1 value chain of cultivated bananas value chain of cultivated banana in huaphan in the banana value chains in houaphan province, four main stakeholders can be identified: farmers, processors, middlemen, and importers. farmers are responsible for cultivating and collecting bananas from their farms and selling them to middlemen and customers at the market in xam nuea district. on average, farming households have a farm area of 1.3 hectares, with 0.6 hectares dedicated to banana farming. the total cost of banana production for farmers, including fixed and variable costs, amounts to approximately 2.02 million lak per household per year. in contrast, the total income from bananas reaches around 3.06 million lak per household, resulting in a profit of approximately 1.04 million lak. processors in houaphan purchase bananas from farmers and use them to produce ripe banana crisps. it takes about four hours to produce ripe banana crisps from 20 bunches of bananas. processors sell these banana crisps directly to customers at the market in houaphan province. the main costs incurred by processors include fixed costs for equipment and variable costs such as labor, purchasing bananas, cooking oil, and packaging materials. on average, processors earn an income of 1.5 million lak per month, while their total costs amount to 0.9 million lak, resulting in a profit of 0.6 million lak per month. middlemen play a role in buying bananas from farmers and selling them to customers in the market in xam nuea district. their fixed costs primarily include trucks, while their variable costs consist of expenses for gasoline, rental fees at the market, maintenance, and labor. the average total cost for middlemen is 13 million lak per month, and their income amounts to 4 million lak per month. consequently, the average profit for middlemen is 9 million lak per month. figure 1 depicts the value chain map of cultivated bananas in houaphan province. the percentages displayed above the arrows represent the market share of each stakeholder. farmers utilize three distribution channels, selling 20% to middlemen, 10% to processors, and 70% directly to customers at the market in xam nuea district. middlemen acquire kuay nam bananas from farmers, distributing 75% to consumers at the market, 20% to processors, and exporting 5% to vietnam. the quantity of processed bananas is relatively low, with processors producing banana chips or grilled bananas for sale in the local market. the distribution of value-added among the stakeholders in each channel. farmers achieve an average profit of approximately 753 lak/kg, corresponding to a profit margin of 193%. middlemen obtain profits of 1,316 lak per bunch, representing a profit margin of 78%. their sale price amounts to 20,000 lak/kg or 28 packs, resulting in a profit of 3,098 lak/kg or an 18% profit margin. value chain of cultivated banana in vientiane province in the value chain of bananas in vientiane province, there are four main stakeholders: farmers, processors, middlemen, and distributors. farmers collect bananas from their farms and sell them, with an average farm area of 3.7 hectares per household and 2 hectares dedicated to banana farming. the average total cost of banana production is 3 million lak per household per year, while the total income from bananas amounts to 13.7 million lak per household, resulting in a profit of approximately 10.7 million lak per household. processors in vientiane produce various banana products, with the knowledge and techniques transferred from jica. the production process for banana crisp takes 8 hours with 3 workers, using around 400 bunches of bananas to produce 220 kg of banana crisp. solar-dried banana production requires 4 man-days and 300 bunches of 29 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 bananas to produce 125 kg. processors sell their products to retailers in vientiane capital and occasionally export to retailers in thailand, generating an average monthly revenue of 8 million lak and a profit of approximately 2.5 million lak. middlemen purchase bananas from farmers and sell them to customers at the market in vientiane capital. their main fixed costs include trucks, and variable costs consist of gasoline, rental fees, maintenance, and labor costs. the average monthly income and cost for middlemen are 27 million lak and 20 million lak, respectively, resulting in an average profit of 7 million lak per month. distributors, a lao-china joint company, are responsible for collecting, packing, and exporting bananas to distribution centers in china. the bananas are then distributed to markets, retail shops, or department stores in china. occasionally, thai importers buy bananas directly from the farm when there is a supply shortage in thailand. the demand for processed bananas from retail shops and markets in thailand is irregular. figure 2 shows that approximately 50% of bananas are sold in the domestic market, primarily at the market in vientiane capital. processors purchase 10% of bananas from farmers for their production. for export, around 15% of bananas are sold to the distributor and exported to china, while 5% are exported to thailand. processors sell 80% of their total product to retailers, 15% to domestic customers, and 5% to thai importers. middlemen sell 90% of the bananas to retailers at the market and 10% to customers in vientiane capital. the average profit for farmers selling bananas in lao pdr is approximately 153 lak/kg, resulting in a profit margin of around 16%. middlemen, who act as intermediaries, make an average profit of 3,000 lak/kg, equating to a profit margin of approximately 23%. processors in the industry produce four flavors of banana crisps and solar-dried bananas, with an average profit margin of around 77%. retailers purchase processed bananas from processors, pack them into small packages, and sell them in retail shops, achieving a profit margin of approximately 50%. additionally, retailers also sell unprocessed bananas, gaining an approximate profit margin of 67%. a chinese-lao company operates as a distributor, supplying bananas to a distribution center in guangxi province. due to privacy concerns, the specific cost and sale price of bananas is not known. however, the distributor obtains an estimated profit margin of approximately 2030%. it is important to note that the value-added distributions may vary depending on the market channels utilized. figure 1. mapping of value-chain of cultivated banana in houaphan province. figure 2. mapping of value-chain in vientiane province. 30 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 value chain of cultivated bananas in savannakhet the value chain in savannakhet province comprises four key stakeholders: farmers, processors, distributors, and retailers. farmers play a crucial role in collecting bananas from their farms and selling their products. on average, each household has a farm area of 3.26 hectares, with an average of 2.25 hectares dedicated to banana cultivation. the average total cost of banana production per household per year is 5 million lak, while the total income from bananas amounts to 7.7 million lak per household. this results in an approximate profit of 2.7 million lak per household. processors in the province are engaged in producing various banana products, including banana crisps, solardried bananas, and dried flattened bananas, which is a unique product in savannakhet province. the production process for dried flattened bananas takes two days and requires two workers. on average, processors generate a monthly revenue of 8.4 million lak, with an average cost of 5 million lak, resulting in an approximate profit of 3.4 million lak per household per month. distributors, in this case, are vietnamese companies that purchase bananas from farmers in the xepon district. they transport the bananas to the danang seaport in vietnam and subsequently ship them to china (see figure 3). the average profit for farmers is 334 lak/kg or 32% of the profit margin. for middlemen, the average profit per kg is 542 laks or 31% profit margin. processors have many products from cultivated bananas and those are ripe banana crisp, raw banana crisp, butter banana crisp, and dried flattened banana. the processor makes an average profit of 16,000 lak/kg or 114% profit margin. the retailers who buy and sell banana products as a vendor make an average profit of 1,000 lak/pack or a 33% profit margin. finally, distributors who are the final actor make 500 lak average profits per kg or 20% profit margin. value-chain in salavan province the value chain in salavan province involves six key stakeholders, namely middlemen, farmers, retailers, and exporters. middlemen play a significant role in the value chain by purchasing bananas from farmers in both savannakhet and salavan province. they then sell the bananas to retailers in savannakhet and salavan province. additionally, middlemen occasionally export products to thailand. on average, middlemen generate a monthly revenue of 17 million lak, with a cost of 11 million lak, resulting in a profit of approximately 6 million lak per month. farmers are responsible for collecting bananas from their farms and selling their products to middlemen and retailers in salavan and champasack province. each household, on average, possesses a farm area of 6.2 hectares, with an average of 1.9 hectares allocated for banana cultivation. the average total cost of banana production per household per month is 4 million lak. however, the total income from bananas amounts to 0.8 million lak per household per month, resulting in a profit of approximately 3.2 million lak per household per month (see figure 4). farmers in salavan province make an average profit of 1,040 lak/kg or 84% profit margin. middlemen who collect bananas from farmers make an average profit of 1,009 lak/kg which creates a 50% profit margin. in salavan, there are two main types of banana processors, solar-dried banana, and butter banana. processors make an average profit of 7,050 lak/kg or a 34% profit margin. in addition, retailers in salavan make a profit of 1,200 lak/kg and create a 67% profit margin. finally, distributors make a profit of 1,700 lak/kg or a 94% profit margin. overall, distributors make up the highfigure 3. mapping of value-chain in savannakhet province. 31 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 est percentage of profit margin. 3.2 impact of cultivated bananas on household income this section presents the regression results of factors affecting commercialization and the impact of commercialization on income. the summary statistics indicate that there are no outliers in the sample (see table 3). the correlation matrix shows that there is no multicollinearity issue among the independent variables. the model of factors affecting banana commercialization shows a very low goodness of fit 0.1049; however, the f-statistic is 11.457 > f-test is 2.78 which means the model is valid. gender (gen), the age of the head of household (age), education (edu) and distance to the farm (df) did not play any role in banana commercialization (table 4). the distance to the market (dm), experience (exp) and the number of family members (mem) positively and significantly influenced banana commercialization. the second stage least squares model was used to examine the impact of commercialization on household incomes. the model shows acceptable goodness of fit. gen and edu are statistically significant at the 5% level.   shows statistically significant at a 1% level. lnk and lns land area are statistically significant at 0.1% level. however, age, exp and p are statistically insignificant. to ensure the validity of the analysis, various tests including an endogeneity test, instrument test, and over-identification restriction have been conducted. the results confirm the validity of the instrument variable used in the analysis. figure 4. mapping of value-chain in salavan province. table 3. summary of statistics. variable obs mean std. dev. min max commercial 475 0.82 0.10 0.2 0.95 gender 475 1.24 0.43 1 2 age 475 42.74 11.04 17 98 education 475 9.13 2.19 5 16 experience 475 11.13 7.77 1 40 policy 475 0.35 0.48 0 1 labor 475 3.78 2.20 1 25 cultivated labor 475 2.88 1.30 1 11 land 475 1.47 2.05 0 24 capital 475 12,600,000 21,800,000 271,550 53,000,000 income 475 28,900,000 45,600,000 1,000,000 200,000,000 market access 475 0.69 0.46 0 1 32 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 table 4. regression results. variable c lni gen 0.002 –0.161* (0.21) (–2.18) age 4.76e-05 –0.004 (0.10) (–1.84) edu –0.002 0.029* (–0.83) (2.10) dm 0.001*** (5.53) exp 0.001* –0.004 (2.10) (–0.86) df 0.003 (1.42) mem 0.009** (2.91) lnk 0.259*** (6.65) lnl –0.114 (–1.52) lns 0.237*** (6.20)   4.259** (2.80) p 0.124 (1.85) d2 0.564*** (3.95) d3 0.372*** (3.42) d4 –0.016 (–0.12) cons 0.697*** 9.257*** (13.90) (6.91) r2 0.1049 0.5607 n 475 475 note: t statistics in parentheses. * < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001. 4. discussions the value chain of cultivated bananas in four provinces has been significantly driven by the export market. farmers generate the highest profit, but they receive the lowest distribution of value-added. they face several challenges, including disease and pests that lead to lower yields, limited financial knowledge among farmers for effective management of household income and expenses, and insufficient local market capacity to absorb the banana supply. cultivated bananas provide a nutritious food source, particularly in areas with limited nutritional options. as organic bananas, there are opportunities to promote them in high-value markets driven by global health concerns. processors have the highest value-added potential in the banana value chain. they produce a variety of products from cultivated bananas, such as banana chips, dried bananas, and cakes. the local market has limited processed banana products, creating an opportunity to introduce new products. processed banana products typically yield higher profit margins than raw bananas. however, processors face some challenges, such as a lack of marketing knowledge, limited product innovation and limited access to funds. distributors mainly export raw bananas to vietnam, thailand, and china, as demand for bananas has increased in recent years. however, transportation from farms to markets involves multiple inspections, and export procedures require various documents from government offices, resulting in high costs and administrative burdens. the implementation of the dry port in 2021 has further increased the cost and complexity of exporting. the result of regression suggests that determinants of banana commercialization in lao pdr include the distance from farm to market, experience, and number of household members. a study found that the coefficient of distance from farm to market (dm) was positive and significant at the 0.1% level, which means that the farther the distance from farm to market, the higher the rate of commercialization. this is because land rent diminishes from the outward center city to offset both lower revenue and higher operating costs [10]. in laos, most banana farms are located far from the city (market) where the price of land is low. for example, most bananas in salavan province are sold in champasack province and exported to thailand. in the same direction, most bananas produced in vientiane province are sold to vientiane capital. household experience and size are positively associated with the commercialization of bananas. the coefficient of household experience was positive and significant at the 5% level, indicating that an increase in one year of experience leads to a higher commercialization ratio. this suggests that households with more experience in banana cultivation and marketing are more likely to sell a greater quantity of bananas. the coefficient of household size was 33 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 also positive and significant at the 1% level, suggesting that larger household size is associated with a higher commercialization ratio. this may be because larger households have more labor available to help with banana cultivation and marketing, or because they have more financial resources to invest in banana production. banana commercialization can increase the income of farmers, but the impact is not equal for all farmers. a second-stage regression analysis found that gender, education, commercialization, capital, and land are the key factors that impact the income of farmers. the coefficient of gender was found to be negatively significant at the 5% level, indicating that households led by females had lower average incomes compared to households led by males. this could be attributed to factors such as divorce or widowhood, which may lead female-headed households to work harder to earn sufficient income. furthermore, the coefficient of education was positively significant at the 5% level, suggesting that higher levels of education were associated with higher household incomes. this finding aligns with previous studies such as chialue et al. [11], xangsaysane et al. [12] and ha et al. [13] that have highlighted the role of education in providing access to information, knowledge, and techniques for increasing income. the coefficient of predicted commercialization was found to be positive and significant at the 0.1% level, indicating that a 1% increase in banana commercialization resulted in an 8% increase in household income. bananas were identified as the primary income source for households, and their sustainable income potential was supported by factors such as low production costs, high demand from neighboring countries, and environmentally friendly cultivation practices. the main variables in the income function, including capital and land, demonstrated positive and significant coefficients at the 0.1% level, consistent with production theory. in contrast, the coefficient of labor was not statistically significant. this can be attributed to the fact that labor is primarily intensive during the plantation phase rather than cultivation. on average, two individuals working for three hours are sufficient to harvest one hectare of bananas. the coefficient of the policy variable, indicating government support for farmers, was not significant, suggesting that there was no discernible impact of government policies on household income. most farmers did not receive support from the government of laos, although some support was provided by organizations such as japan international cooperation agency and the agrobiodiversity initiative. additionally, the coefficients of the dummy variables d2 and d3 were positive and significant at the 1% level, indicating that average household incomes in vientiane and savannakhet provinces were higher than those in houaphan province. however, the coefficient of d4 was not significant, suggesting that the average income of households in salavan province did not differ significantly from that of households in houaphan province. 5. conclusions numerous studies have raised concerns about the sustainability of cavendish banana production, citing negative environmental, health, and social impacts despite increased income for farmers. this study analyzes the value chain of cultivated bananas and demonstrates that the commercialization of cultivated bananas can generate sustainable incomes for farmers. the findings reveal significant value-added for farmers, with processors earning the highest value-added but lacking marketing and financial knowledge. key factors driving commercialization include market access, family members, and experience. the study confirms that the commercialization of bananas leads to increased household income, but questions arise about the long-term sustainability of banana production, particularly given the dependence on demand from neighboring countries. to address these challenges and promote the sustainable development of cultivated bananas, the following policy implications are recommended: farmers should consider creating processed products such as banana cakes, chips, or candies during periods of excess supply or when supply exceeds demand. this approach reduces losses, enhances food security, and improves household nutrition. farmers often do not keep track of their income and expenses, which makes it difficult for them to manage their money. training in basic financial accounting would be very beneficial for households. the government can help farmers and producers by purchasing their products. for example, banana cake and candy can be used as snacks in schools, as well as during coffee breaks at meetings, seminars, and conferences. the ministry of industry and commerce (moic) should establish exchange programs for farmers and processors, providing training and facilitating the exchange of ideas to create new products. effective marketing strategies, including attractive packaging and design, can help stimulate sales of processed banana products. to facilitate distributors, it is better to reduce the number of stops during transportation. this will reduce the 34 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 cost of transportation for distributors and reduce the risk of damage to bananas during transport. villages should initiate activities to promote bananas, such as banana contests or award programs. this will help to raise awareness of bananas and increase demand for them. author contributions the first author as well as corresponding author piya wongpit took the lead in research design, analysis, interpretation as well as writing of the manuscript while coauthors bounmy inthakesone, keuangkham sisengnam, pakaiphone syphoxay support first author in the writing and analysis. funding this research was funded by the swiss agency for development cooperation. acknowledgement the authors express their gratitude to the national agriculture and forestry research institute for their support in facilitating coordination with relevant stakeholders throughout the research process. furthermore, the authors extend their sincere appreciation to the farmers, middlemen, processors, retailers, and their networks for generously sharing valuable information that has greatly contributed to this study. their cooperation and input have been instrumental in ensuring the success and reliability of the research findings. data availability the data are available upon request from the corresponding author. conflict of interest the authors disclosed that they do not have any conflict of interest. references [1] manivong, v., ouansamone, p., sonethavixay, s., et al., 2016. building an evidence base for policy formulation in the agriculture and rural development sector in lao pdr [internet]. the national agriculture and forestry research institute. available from: https://nardt.org/images/acc_13/files/building_ evidencebase_policy%20formulation_agriculture_ rural_development_sector_lao_pdr.pdf [2] fao., ifad., nafri., 2016. pro-poor policy recommendation to combat risks in smallholder organic production 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[13] ha, t., bosch, o., nguyen, n., 2015. defining the real needs of women smallholder farmers in vietnam: the importance of grassroots participation and multi-stakeholder collaboration. international journal of business and management. 3(2), 35-58. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313441918_farmer_perspectives_and_experiences_with_adaptation_options_savannakhet_a_summary_of_farmer_engagement_processes_in_van_wensveen_m_williams_l_roth_c_developing_multi-scale_adaptation_strategies_for_fa https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313441918_farmer_perspectives_and_experiences_with_adaptation_options_savannakhet_a_summary_of_farmer_engagement_processes_in_van_wensveen_m_williams_l_roth_c_developing_multi-scale_adaptation_strategies_for_fa https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313441918_farmer_perspectives_and_experiences_with_adaptation_options_savannakhet_a_summary_of_farmer_engagement_processes_in_van_wensveen_m_williams_l_roth_c_developing_multi-scale_adaptation_strategies_for_fa https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313441918_farmer_perspectives_and_experiences_with_adaptation_options_savannakhet_a_summary_of_farmer_engagement_processes_in_van_wensveen_m_williams_l_roth_c_developing_multi-scale_adaptation_strategies_for_fa https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313441918_farmer_perspectives_and_experiences_with_adaptation_options_savannakhet_a_summary_of_farmer_engagement_processes_in_van_wensveen_m_williams_l_roth_c_developing_multi-scale_adaptation_strategies_for_fa 25 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.700 received: 15 september 2022; received in revised form: 14 november 2022; accepted: 24 november 2022; published: 1 december 2022 citation: bandason, w., parwada, c., mushunje, a., 2022. macadamia nuts (macadamia intergrifolia) value chain and technical efficiency among the small-scale farmers in zimbabwe. research on world agricultural economy. 3(4), 700. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.700 *corresponding author: wellington bandason, faculty of agricultural sciences, women’s university in africa, p.o. box gd 32, greendale, harare, zimbabwe; email: wbandason@gmail.com review article macadamia nuts (macadamia intergrifolia) value chain and technical efficiency among the small-scale farmers in zimbabwe wellington bandason1* cosmas parwada2 abbyssinia mushunje3 1. faculty of agricultural sciences, women’s university in africa, p.o. box gd 32, greendale, harare, zimbabwe 2. faculty of agricultural sciences, zimbabwe open university, midlands 16 victory road, gweru, zimbabwe 3. university of fort hare, south africa abstract: agriculture value chains are an indispensable tool for stakeholder collaboration, improving market access, foreign currency generation and increase in macadamia nut production in most developing countries. in zimbabwe macadamia nut is a relatively new crop that has potential to alleviate poverty and enhance livelihoods. zimbabwe’s macadamia nut industry is still at its infancy and remains an under-researched area. despite this, the technical efficiency of macadamia nuts production systems as proxied by production levels among small-scale farmers in the country is least understood. this study analyses the existing value chains by scrutinizing every step required in the production and marketing of macadamia nuts focusing on technical efficiency of value chain nodes. macadamia nut value chain in zimbabwe is predominantly an emergency value chain system that does not embrace the modular value chain model and associated networks to enhance technical efficiency and overall welfare. the value chain system is characterised by imperfect market conditions with limited knowledge of exact specifications, attributes and price of macadamia nuts. the existing value chain models for macadamia nut need to be re-aligned to accommodate all stakeholders, hence widening resource and knowledge sharing platforms. there is a need for the zimbabwe macadamia nut value chain to shift towards captive networks which embrace and scale out practices such as out-grower contractual arrangements. there is potential to design macadamia nut value chain models in zimbabwe to increase the technical efficiency of the industry. keywords: technical efficiency; value chain analysis; value chain model 1. introduction globally, macadamia remains at the forefront of nut consumption growth and the major consumers are high income countries [1]. over the past decade, the global increase towards healthy eating has driven the growth in the macadamia nut industry, increasing by 24% compared to http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.700 mailto:wbandason@gmail.com http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7960-4303 26 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 previous decade [2]. the world macadamia production and consumption can be attributed to the growth in demand, the popularity of the commodity, lucrative markets, population growth and per capita income in gross domestic product [3]. while native to australia, the nuts are now grown in many countries, including south africa, kenya, the u.s. (hawaii), china, guatemala, malawi, zimbabwe and brazil. the global demand for macadamia nuts is driven by the wide application and use of processed tree nuts in the food, cosmetics and personal care industries. nuts and dried fruits are rich in nutrients, bioactive and antioxidants and are good for promoting a healthy lifestyle [4]. unlike other crop enterprises, the macadamia nut industry has more revenue streams and lucrative markets but according to itc [5] and inc [6]. zimbabwe is still lagging behind in terms of production and export trade due to rudimentary production systems, policy interventions, and centralised markets for macadamia nuts. the technical efficiency of macadamia nuts production systems in zimbabwe as proxied by productivity levels has declined from approximately 54% in 2005 to 38% in 2020 [7]. the productivity levels are below breakeven levels coupled with unfavourable market prices which are on average 50% of the global weighted prices. smallholder farmers do not possess the required technology to process nuts and they sell raw nuts at cheaper prices, due to this, the margins are highly tilted towards agents and intermediaries leaving the smallholder at a disadvantage. the existing value chains are not favourable to primary producers so they remain the least beneficial cluster. macadamia nuts regulations under statutory 138 of 2019 give the government of zimbabwe authority to control and regulate marketing of macadamia as well as promoting, protecting, and maintaining sales of macadamia. macadamia tree requires temperatures of about 16 °c and an annual rainfall averaging 600 mm to achieve good yield. at an ideal planting density of 312 plants per hectare, the crop can yield up to 31.2 t/ha per year. however, in zimbabwe the average yield is 7.2 t/ha per year with droughts and heavy frost noted as major problems in macadamia production [8]. macadamia trees have been known to thrive in areas where average yearly rainfall is only about 600 mm, provided it is well distributed. once the trees have become well established, they will survive considerable periods of drought [8]. macadamia nuts are the fruit of the evergreen macadamia tree and the three species with commercial importance are macadamia intergrifolia, macadamia ternifolia and macadamia tetraphyla [9]. only two species are grown for their edible nuts; m. intergrifolia and m. tetraphyla. the m. tetraphylla is more adaptive to cooler climate and has rough shelled bush nuts while the m. intergrifolia has a smooth nut surface and is adaptive to diverse agro-climatic conditions. in zimbabwe, m. intergrifolia is commonly grown in the cooler parts of the southern eastern districts. according to inc [6], macadamia nuts have a subtle, buttery flavour and velvety soft crunch that make them highly regarded by consumers. they are perfect as a snack, breakfast topping, in salads or as part of main meal, either raw, roasted or salted, or with flavourings [6]. the macadamia nuts industry has multiple revenue driven by the wide application and use of processed tree nuts in the food, cosmetics and personal care industries [4]. globally, australia and south africa alone produce 50% of the world macadamia production [8]. according to mbaka [10] the technical efficiency levels of macadamia nuts production systems in most african countries have not been in sync with the market demands for raw nuts across the various value chain nodes. this further points to the need to re-align the value chain models with the realities of the stakeholders’ capabilities, institutional arrangements and marketing networks. in africa, lessons for successful implementation of value chain models can be traced to for example kenya [11,12]. zimbabwe needs to run while others walk towards increasing production and its market share of macadamia exports in the global market. this review argues that there is evidence showing that macadamia nuts production, processing and consumption as the value chains remain technically inefficient and do not enable smallholder farmers to access high value markets. even in these contexts, there are challenges such as the lack of information on the cultivars, lack of awareness on agronomic practices, price volatility, inconsistent market information and poor handling of the nuts after harvesting that limits the growth of the industry [13]. the main observation from literature is that major macadamia nut production and marketing challenges are attributed to poorly designed and malfunctioning value chain models [14]. mazhar and méon [15] allude and note that the marketing of macadamia nuts could also be affected by the involvement of intermediaries, the poor physical condition of markets, and an absence of modern infrastructure and logistical arrangements, such as storage, transportation and modern grading equipment. it has also been noted that, the distribution of profits among the value chain participants is uneven with small-scale growers receiving a relatively low share of the price paid by consumers [16]. furthermore, they contend that the exclusion of small-scale farmers from the mainstream macadamia value chain functions has crowded out these farmers. a value chain analysis needs to be conducted to examine the current and future aspects of the macadamia industry in zimbabwe. with the global macadamia consumption 27 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 expected to increase, efficient production and market linkages could be an advantage for smallholder farmers. current recommendations for research show that agricultural diversity has also emerged strongly as an option to reduce the food and income insecurity risks among smallscale farmers in zimbabwe. in the eastern region of zimbabwe, macadamia nuts have been widely adopted as a hedge against the underperformance of traditional crops such as maize [17]. given the favourable climatic conditions of some areas e.g., chipinge which favour the growing of macadamia nuts compared to other crops like maize and other cereals, macadamia nut production can make farmers to be income secure because of the increase in global demand. macadamia can potentially reduce poverty since it is a high value crop with a low-input requirement of about us$2300/ha compared to us$3100/ha needed for commercial tobacco. an exploratory survey conducted by agritex [18] revealed that there are 530 farmers who are into macadamia nut farming in the manicaland province of zimbabwe. these farmers have an average yield of 11.9 t/ha/per year cropping on average 0.3 ha per household, but they are failing to realize handsome profits because of lack of processing technology and poor market access. according to agritex [7], the marketing of macadamia nuts is controlled by only five companies namely parrogate pvt ltd, cropate, mac nut company, afri-china and sime. a study by barrueto, merz [19] noted that farmers are able to practice modern production techniques which they understand and have technical know-how. however, the value chain impetus for this from the social, economic, institutional frontiers is currently lacking in zimbabwe, hence the noted low productivity levels among small-scale farmers. as such, although the macadamia nut industry has the potential to contribute significantly to sustainable development in zimbabwe, it is also confronted by low productivity and inefficient market for the commodity and these have an effect of reducing the potential of the industry through a reduction in the profitability. therefore, understanding value chain actor behaviour, dynamics and opportunities about the functioning of macadamia nut value chains is critical for designing appropriate strategies to improve their efficiency. the findings of this paper will enable developing countries to craft policy shifts that encourage increased production and marketing of macadamia nuts. 1.1 a global overview of macadamia nut leading producers and exporters the world macadamia nut production can be broadly defined either as the production tons measured in the nut in shell (nis) or based on the kernel basis, which excludes the mass of the shell. using the former metric, world production showed a continued growth, adding up to more than 60,000 tons in 2019 [20]. in 2009, the total supply of macadamia nuts was 28,000 tons, which translates into 57% increase of the past decade [21]. macadamias constitute a small sub-sector of all nuts on the world stage market, with only 1.28% of the total market share [22]. macadamias are still viewed as a luxury crop but world exports continue to indicate a growth driven by a rapid increase in production and world demand [23]. from table 1 it is clear that south africa and australia each had a 27% share in macadamia production. this can be attributed to the extended area under production, new varieties and continuous investment in the macadamia nut industry in south africa and australia. in 2019, south africa had 44,775 hectares under macadamia production, with 2019 seeing 5,962 new hectares planted [24]. australia’s macadamia nut area planted increased from 18,000 ha in 2011 to 26 000 ha in 2019 [25]. in kenya for example, macadamia nuts production is dominated by smallholder producers. more than 100,000 mostly small-scale farmers are cultivating the trees primarily in mixed cropping with coffee and other products [4]. table 1. major macadamia nut producing countries (metric tons): kernel basis. countries kernel basis (metric tons) % share south africa 144,288 27 australia 144,192 27 kenya 7,002 13 usa 4,153 8 china 3,859 7 guatamela 2,190 4 malawi 1,620 3 brazil 1,450 3 zimbabwe 43 0.008 others 4,172 8 source: inc (6) table 2. leading world exporters of macadamia rank exporters tons 5-year growth % 1 south africa 37,440 5.89 2 australia 23,057 32.02 3 hong-kong 10,897 –10.02 4 zimbabwe 7,426 21.60 5 guatamala 6,792 19.99 6 usa 5,760 9.41 7 kenya 5,322 1.70 8 china 4,572 6.17 source: itc (5)and inc (6) 28 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 with exports of 37,000 tons in 2019, south africa is the top exporter of macadamia nuts globally (table 2). in the last five years, its market share has increased at a consistent 3% rate. australia with 23,057 thousand tons and hong-kong at 10,897 tons emerged the secondand third-best exporters in 2019, respectively [5]. zimbabwe is currently exporting macadamia as raw nut-in-shell (nis) worth about us$4.2 million, at an average of us$2.65/kg, thus contributing to the global value of about us$317 million [5]. this is against the alternative value added (cracked to release the kernel) nut which can be sold at us$4.85/kg [5]. this pattern shows the income potential that is there but not being exploited by producers in zimbabwe. additionally, other private stakeholders can also take advantage of the investment opportunities along the value chain. zimbabwe is thus part of the emerging producers of this relatively young and unknown nut in the world’s nut selection, forming a mere 1.2% of total global tree nut production [24]. there is scope for expansion in production, marketing and processing activities if macadamia nuts value chain fundamentals are well understood and documented. 1.2 the value chain context of macadamia nuts in zimbabwe the value chain approach traces the connections from buyers to the producers (farmers in the case of the macadamia nuts). as this is done, gaps become evident and form the basis for establishing priorities for action. given that the zimbabwean macadamia nut farmers sell nis, they have not been generating income comparable to other producers in the world who sell processed nuts at a price which is almost double that offered to zimbabwean farmers. more than 75% of the macadamia production in zimbabwe is rain-fed. the small-scale macadamia nuts farms are 0.3 to 3 hectares on average. small-scale farmers are producing less volumes of macadamia nuts which fail to meet the demands of organized and international markets, further, they do not have access to required inputs and market information. studies however show that households can boost rural employment and generate income [26] through processing and value adding [27]. figure 1 shows the macadamia value chain in zimbabwe while highlighting the missing links which are compromising its efficiency. the fundamental aspects of the value chain hinge on the coordination of various sub-systems to sustain the broader development of synergies among stakeholders for the common goal of strengthening the value chain. the implications of all these interactions need to be viewed from the lens of the value to be extracted from participating in the various functions along the value chain. macadamia nuts in zimbabwe pass through several other formal and informal value chain nodes as consumers have potential to access product from several other actors, indicating governance challenges in this value chain. there is a dearth in knowledge on how decisions to participate on a stakeholders’ interaction platform are made by emerging strategic crop value chains such as macadamia nuts. in zimbabwe, as opposed to other countries such as south africa and kenya, the value addition dimension is still the missing link in the macadamia nut business cycle since most farmers sell nis raw nuts at unfavourable prices [8]. there is also untapped potential to increase access to production resources, enhance marketing opportunities, reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of the poor through improved incomes and employment. it is therefore critical to conduct a study that looks at the costs, returns and profit distributed along the macadamia nuts value chain by each actor. this study seeks to bridge the research gap in terms of the value chain including the linkages and relationships between actors especially between the farmers and middlemen, producers, transporters, buyers and consumers as well as the whole range of activities required to produce macadamia nuts from the farm to the final market. 2. value chain models used by agricultural stakeholders there is limited information on whether it is purely policy bias that has kept small-scale macadamia nuts farmers out of viable markets or it is a combination of household specific decision-making processes and the value chain models that are not adequately accommodative. unido [28] observed that within the framework of product-income flow processes and networks, there is a notable distinction among a number of value chain models. the defining differences across these value chain patterns are the tradeoff that has to be made between the benefits and risks involved when decisions regarding how outsourcing of key ingredients such as information and production resources are made. these fundamental decisions are the key drivers of commercialisation prospects for agricultural enterprises in the small-scale sectors of southern africa [29]. the value chain models patterns encompass a continuum of power asymmetry and explicit networking mechanisms bounded by the pure market-based model at the lower end and the hierarchy-based models on the upper end. for stakeholders in their various decision-making contexts to understand where macadamia nuts have fallen short, there is need to trace the dominant existing value chain models practised by the small-scale macadamia nuts markets of zimbabwe, as is the motivation of this study. a simplified value chain from which all the aforementioned models have emerged is illustrated in figure 2. 29 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 figure 1. macadamia nuts value chain source: adapted from scheepers [25] figure 1. macadamia nuts value chain source: adapted from scheepers [25] 30 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 characteristically, the arm’s length market model is the most rudimentary value chain model [30,31]. as such, most small-scale farmers find solace in participating in this model structure because buyers and suppliers are not necessarily closely related because the product involved is apparently logically standardised [32]. however, this has not been the case with macadamia nuts farmers because in literature there are reports that farmers and processing firms are not meeting the demands of customers in various critical success factor pillars such as the quality, pricing and reliability of supply. this can therefore be attributed to land allocation decisions which do not accommodate macadamia nuts across geo-spatial locations in zimbabwe, therefore creating artificial shortages of the product in potentially viable markets, while at the same time negatively impacting on the income generating capacity. the argument against this value chain model is that, if any challenges become apparent with the product, then buyers cannot easily switch to a new different supplier in the production zone. this is because the supplier is not available or will need substantial time to provide the macadamia nuts given its production cycle. this has created a disincentive for macadamia nuts utilisation by local processors especially in the food industry because it becomes risky given that the small-scale producers can easily have an upper bargaining hand using price as the core governance tool [24]. however, experiences in kenya show a different picture where small-scale macadamia nuts farmers in the southern and drier parts have strong direct linkages with processors in multiple nodes [8]. the study therefore argues that the lessons from these environments can be used to meaningfully support the participation of macadamia nuts farmers in zimbabwe if the model is restructured to suit the local contexts. given experiences in zimbabwe, the immediate question then becomes whether the macadamia nuts value chain stakeholders embrace the modular value chain model and associated networks to enhance technical efficiency and overall welfare. as noted by unido [28], in this arrangement, the firms develop information-intensive linkages with clearly defined core competences among themselves. the buyer then comes on board and determines what is to be produced in terms of the quantity, design and product specifications. this provides an opportunity for the highly competent suppliers to provide the product at the shortest notice since they have a cluster of product specifications readily available at their disposal. small scale macadamia nuts farmers in arid and semi-arid zones of zimbabwe have failed to capitalise on this attribute of consumers through networks which foster information sharing intensity and allowing buyers to gain confidence in their competence as suppliers. according to munozpina, de janvry [33], examples of modular value chain model linkages are successfully exhibited in financed value chains where buyers are committed to few suppliers such as in contractual arrangements. sadly, embracing this approach has manifested in the form of macadamia nuts processors choosing the reliable supplies from the largescale producers. this has a negative bearing on the sustainability of the small-scale macadamia nuts enterprises as farmers end up having no reliable markets to supply their produce. it can therefore be argued that, given the prevailing scenario in the small-scale macadamia nuts sector, the best way is to shift towards captive networks which embrace and scale out practices such as out-grower contractual arrangements [34]. alternatively, a hierarchical value chain model which is characterised by various forms of vertical integration can be adopted. the strategy will be to isolate some lead firm which takes overall control and ownership of some strategic production operations [33], given that competent farming households cannot easily be found or it is difficult to codify desired products such as macadamia nuts. in the medium to long term, this evolution will have direct implications on domestic and international trade along multiple macadamia nuts value chain nodes [35]. this will naturally trigger changes in consumer tastes and preferences and have a net effect on land allocation decisions towards the crop and its marketing along many channels. figure 2. a simplified value chain model source: adopted from sanogo (2010) 31 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 2.1 determinants of emerging value chain models used by macadamia stakeholders as alluded to by scheepers [25], there are numerous determinants of using the value chain models in agricultural organisations. these emanate from within the organisations and from within the wider agriculture sector and are usually context specific depending on the sector’s performance. the modern perspective acknowledges that there are intricate and overlapping relationships among these various factors. this, according to quiroz, kuepper [8] creates additional pressure on the decision makers to opt for the traditional models as a hedge against the potential numerous risks of emerging value chain models’ management requirements if not well coordinated. this refined perspective therefore looks at these core determinants of value chain model choices in the context of possible value creation. the foremost factor is the consideration for the transaction costs associated with the collaboration partners in most modern value chain models. fundamental to this process, the macadamia nuts stakeholders need to commence the search for alliance partners by weighing the potential of a prospective partner to possess sustainable harmonising resources which can enhance networking activities including the skills to coordinate the coordination. as such, in most of these decisions, the complementary resources factor acts as the major driver of cooperation and precedes the other factors such as the potential for value creation. however, parshotam [34] suggests that the composite set of factors including knowledge-sharing routines (ksr), complementary resources, relation-specific assets (rsa) and effective governance (eg) are sources of value creation and co-determine the use of value chain models by stakeholders. this matrix is presented in figure 3 below. limited ksr among the small-scale farmers hinders continuous production of high-quality nuts, market access, value addition, and adoption of competitive pricing among macadamia nut producers in zimbabwe. the excellent uses of macadamia nuts like apple crisp, roasted nuts give green salads crunch, and chopped macadamia nuts give white chocolate biscuits a buttery flavour have limited market in zimbabwe, affecting its demand and price in the local market. macadamia value chains in zimbabwe face challenges related to rsa and ga, through limited financial and policy support. however, munoz-pina, de janvry [33] further expounded this argument and posited that the decision makers need to comprehensively interrogate the dynamic relationships among these sources of value creation, as well as the weights assigned to them by various stakeholders as they consider venturing in value chain alliance relationships. the complexity of emerging value chain models as presented by scheepers [25] are that the macadamia nuts stakeholders need to closely assess availability of tangible resources such as equipment or intangible resources such as knowledge or a combination of the two. these factors guide decision making since they influence the levels of future investments in rsa and/or ksr for creating longterm collaborations from the value chain relationships. in most instances, given the nature of the value chain functions, in many alliances, the value is created by merging tangible assets. in these instances, the stakeholders benefit from leveraging and exploiting complementary physical assets in the value chains. this study argues that this scenario significantly crowds out the small-scale macadamia figure 3. factors affecting the use of value chain models source: adopted from daff [38] 32 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 farmers who have no high value assets and resources to bring on to the alliance platform. as such, as a way of adding to the body of knowledge, designing an appropriate value chain networking framework becomes unavoidable for the macadamia nuts industry at this stage. scheepers [25] further argues that another important factor in the use of emerging macadamia nuts value chain models the nature of the arrangements in alliances. for example, they posited that in cases of supplier–buyer alliances which are termed to be vertical, within physical product industries such as macadamia nuts, value is created through coordination along the complementary tangible assets. these alliances are more likely to benefit in the initial stages from investments in rsa. in contrast, using experiences from kenya. quiroz, kuepper [8] argues that the value chain alliances that are designed after considering factors including intangible resources such as knowledge are more likely to benefit from future and reliable investments around the ksr factors while creating value in the execution of functions. in the zimbabwean case, statistics from samac [24] suggest that the main factors considered in the use of emerging value chain models revolve around government policy. poor understanding of statutory instrument 138 of 2019 by small-scale producers may affect their market participation and penetration. the argument is that most government strategies that have been recently put in place to manage macadamia nuts, just like most agricultural enterprises are generally unproductive, as shown by reduced economic benefits. based on south african observations, there is further consensus from scheepers [25] that the lack of commitment from practitioners in the macadamia nuts industry to adopt and reinforce a stakeholder inclusive approach in the design of policies has weakened the industry’s productivity and created additional technical efficiency challenges. there is therefore need to realign the targeted macadamia nuts policy interventions and place significant emphasis on favourable domestic prices, training programmes in emerging practices and consolidation of regulatory institutions’ mandates. all these factors have a bearing on the appetite of macadamia nuts value chain stakeholders to engage in collaboration activities as informed by emerging value chain models. 2.2 economic analysis through applying the value chain concept to macadamia nuts it is one of the aims of this study to also identify challenges facing the zimbabwean macadamia nut value chain. macadamia imports to europe increased in recent years because of the nutritive value of the nuts and their emerging uses in food products. they are mostly consumed as roasted and salted snacks and in snack mixes. key countries of origin are south africa, accounting for 42% of total imports in 2018, followed by kenya with 24% and australia with 18%. other origins all accounted for less than 10% each [8]. most macadamia farmers in zimbabwe are smallholders with limited livelihood options other than subsistence agriculture and small-scale farming. as such the full potential of the macadamia nut industry is yet to be realized. smallholders tend to lack perfect knowledge of their products. this has resulted in the average price of the macadamia nuts obtaining in zimbabwe being low compared to other countries. this therefore points to the existence of a problem within the value chain. 2.3 stakeholder networking and technical efficiency in macadamia value chain nodes the zimbabwean macadamia nut industry seems to exhibit imperfect market conditions, characterized by insufficient product and market knowledge. buyers and sellers may be lacking adequate knowledge with regard to the exact specifications, attributes and price of the macadamia nuts that they demand or supply. regardless of the limited value additions on the macadamia, experts still see growth opportunities in international markets for the nuts like in europe. the zimbabwean farmers can utilize these opportunities if the quality standards of buyers can be fulfilled. value chain participants search and collect information on the value and properties of their product such as transaction costs, coordination and management costs, value chain activities and governance structures between buyers and sellers [36]. understanding of transaction cost economics, transaction costs may be lowered through vertical coordination and integration [37]. gaining control over transaction costs through vertical coordination/integration improves the competitiveness and thus market position of a business by leaving greater gains/profits to be distributed amongst value chain participants in the coordinated/ integrated value chain. this research expects to prescribe policies that will lead to the macadamia nut value chain participants in zimbabwe (particularly the farmers) realizing greater and equitable profits. the terms of transactions, especially price, are determined by the balance of power between buyers and sellers, a balance that is unpredictable and unstable and which might lead to asymmetric price transmission between value chain participants [38]. the major buyers of macadamia nuts in zimbabwe are parrogate pvt ltd, cropate, mac nut company, africhina and sime. the low prices offered to the farmers by these buyers point to a collusive oligopolistic market which seems to be a problem within the value chain. 33 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 industry actors can be identified through value chain analysis. through value chain analysis mapping of positions of industry actors and accounting for individual actors’ activities is done. it thus also accounts for the governance and structure of production that dictates how the chain operates identifying who controls the diffusion of technology, standards, value creation and distribution of rent along the value chain [39,40]. information obtained from this research will thus help design appropriate policies and development interventions, thus improving the position of marginalized groups such as smallholder farmers falling along the chain. furthermore, agribusiness value chains, of which the macadamia nut value chain is part of, are the subject of great interest amongst governments and development partner institutions. they are viewed as pathways for economic growth for developing countries since they do not only contribute to rural livelihoods, but also to poverty alleviation if practiced in a sustainable manner [28,41,42]. on the other hand, a world bank report [43] contended that investments in agriculture have a quadruple impact on the economy compared to other sectors. thus, understanding the macadamia nut value chain is projected to have a positive impact on the lives of the small holders and the economy in general. the inefficiency of the value chain can be a problem in the chain and the proposed study is intended to meet this challenge by mapping, analysing and making policy recommendations with the aim of improving the macadamia nut value chain in zimbabwe focusing on the manicaland province. 3. conclusions appropriate value chain modelling has been a source of competitive advantage among macadamia nuts firms as is with many businesses. there is limited uptake of these emerging and effective value chain models among the firms in the macadamia nuts industries due to numerous and overlapping factors emanating from the society, the economy, institutions, the policy environment and the wider global community. apparently, the macadamia value chain in zimbabwe was constrained by limited integration into the global market, poor market access, lack of processing technologies, inconsistent institutional arrangements, price volatility, inconsistent market information and poor handling of nuts. limited motivation from social, economic and institutional frontiers in zimbabwe contributes to low technical efficiency in the macadamia nuts value chain. particularly, untapped potential to increase access to production resources, poor marketing opportunities, high poverty levels and poor quality of life have significant impact on the technical efficiency of macadamia nuts production in zimbabwe. this cocktail of developments has significantly compromised how macadamia nuts producers’ response to technical efficiency challenges using emerging methods within the value chain contexts. the ultimate effect is that the macadamia nuts stakeholders, especially the producers, have not extracted optimum value from their operations due to limited access to resources, information and core knowledge on the value chain platforms. going forward, it becomes unavoidable for various structures at social, economic, institutional, and policy levels to be designed in ways which respond to changes in the value chain modelling landscape. to increase technical efficiency through enabling diversification along strategic value chains and across value chains, the governments of zimbabwe need to adopt a more direct and rigorous policy approach. this will motivate the production of macadamia nuts in the country. further, there is a need to build a funding mechanism for small-scale macadamia farmers to access to improve their technical efficiency. gradual reduction of value chains length and regulating the existing markets is necessary. revitalisation of the technical capacity of smallscale macadamia farmers through improving access to production resources and enhancing their production and marketing skills should be done. the formation of a board that addresses all the needs of the small-scale farmers of macadamia will be necessary for them to have improved market access, facilitate training and have a better price bargaining power. one of the critical success factors for the industry is to improve competitiveness and optimize value adding, whilst at the same time enable broader market access. a value chain analysis should be conducted to examine the current and future aspects of the macadamia industry in zimbabwe. availability of data and material not applicable. author contributions the corresponding author conceived of the paper, gathered the appropriate literature review articles, and wrote the first draft of the manuscript. the other authors read and approved the final manuscript. conflict of interest there is no conflict of interest associated with this paper. references [1] kalaba, m., 2019. local nut production continues to increase-south africa.: bfap. 34 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 [2] wood, l., 2020. worldwide macadamia 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[43] bank, w., 2010. the world bank annual report 2008: year in review: the world bank. http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www http://www 1 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i3.559 received: 17 june 2022; received in revised form: 11 july 2022; accepted: 19 july 2022; published: 5 august 2022 citation: kumar, k.n.r., 2022. technical efficiency of rice farmers in telangana, india: data envelopment analysis (dea). research on world agricultural economy. 3(3), 559. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i3.559 *corresponding author: k. nirmal ravi kumar, department of agricultural economics, agricultural college, bapatla, acharya ng ranga agricultural university(angrau), andhra pradesh, india; email: drknrk@gmail.com research article technical efficiency of rice farmers in telangana, india: data envelopment analysis (dea) k. nirmal ravi kumar* department of agricultural economics, agricultural college, bapatla, acharya ng ranga agricultural university (angrau), andhra pradesh, india abstract: it is known that inability of the farmers to exploit the available production technologies results in lower efficiencies of production. so, the measurement of technical efficiency in agricultural crops in developing countries like india gained renewed attention since the late 1980s from an increasing number of researchers. accordingly, the present study has employed data envelopment analysis (dea) and malmquist total factor productivity index to ascertain the technical efficiency of rice productivity (2021-2022) and its changes over the study period (2019-2020 to 20212022) respectively in telangana, india. this study was based on secondary data pertaining to rice productivity (output variable), fertilizer doses (npk), seed rate, water applied and organic manure (input variables). the findings of data envelopment analysis revealed that the overall mean technical efficiency score across all the decision-making units was 0.860 ranged between 0.592 to 1.000. so, the decision-making units, on an average, could reduce their input usage by 14 per cent and still could produce the same level of rice output. further, fertilizers (60.54 kg/ha); seed (5.63 kg/ha); water (234.48 mm) and organic manure (3.76 t/ha) use can be reduced without affecting the current level of rice productivity. malmquist total factor productivity indices (2019-2020 to 2021-2022) revealed that the mean scores of technical efficiency change, pure technical efficiency change and scale efficiency change are more than one (1.153, 1.042 and 1.009 respectively), unlike technological change (0.983). all the decision-making units showed impressive progress with reference to technical efficiency change (1.112) and it is the sole contributor for total factor productivity change in rice cultivation. the dea results suggest that farmers should be informed about the use of inputs as per the scientific recommendations to boost the technical efficiency of rice productivity in telangana. it also calls for policy initiatives for distribution of quality inputs to the farmers to boost technical efficiency in rice production. keywords: constant returns to scale; malmquist total factor productivity index; decision making units; telangana 1. introduction fao during the international year of rice of 2004 stated that “rice contributes to many aspects of society and therefore can be considered a crystal or prism through which the complexities of sustainable agriculture and food systems can be viewed. the issues related to http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i3.559 mailto:drknrk@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0041-572x 2 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 rice production should not be viewed in isolation but in the framework of agricultural production systems through ecological and integrated systems” [1]. this statement highlights rice not only as one of the most important food crops world-wide but also an intricate part of socio-cultural influencer of many people’s lives. rice is grown in about 120 countries and china leads other countries in the world with a production of 214 million tonnes followed by india with 116 million tonnes and these two countries together contribute over 50 percent of the world’s output in 2019. nine out of the top ten and 13 out of the top twenty riceproducing countries are in southeast-asia [2]. rice contributed more than 40 percent of the total food grains production in india in 2019 and accounted for 21 percent of global rice production. west bengal, uttar pradesh, punjab, andhra pradesh, odisha and telangana are the leading rice producing states in india [3]. boosting the yields of rice is very much critical for the well-being of millions of rice producers and consumers in india, as around 22 percent of the population still lie below poverty line (bpl) in 2018 [4]. further, the demand for rice is projected at 137.3 million tonnes by 2050 [5]. to accomplish these goals, the rice yields must be increased by around 42 percent i.e., from the present level of 2393 kg/ha (in 2011-2012) to 3400 kg/ha. telangana state is emerging as the ‘rice bowl of india’ because, in a short span of five years, the area under rice cultivation has doubled from 0.91 million hectares in 2014-2015 to 1.93 million hectares in the 20182019. recently, with the completion of kaleshwaram lift irrigation scheme, the extent of rice cultivation in telangana has increased in just one year from 1.93 million hectares in 2018-2019 to 2.88 million hectares in 20192020 and accordingly, production shot up from 6.6 million tonnes to 10.5 million tonnes during this reference period 2022 [6]. so, the adequate water resources and other inputs like seed, fertilizers subsidy, free power etc., being provided by the state government enabled the farmers to take up rice cultivation. however, the statistical data available in the offices of joint director of agriculture in telangana has revealed drastic variations in rice productivity and resources usage. these variations in resources usage contributed to low productivity of rice (compared to potential) and this may arise owing to lower technical efficiency (te). this is an indicator of presence of technical inefficiency in rice productivity across the districts in telangana. considering the socio-economic importance of rice farming in this state, there seems to be a research need for investigating the extent of such inefficiencies. it, therefore, calls for a scientific inquiry on te of rice production in telangana, which would be of much relevance for farmers, researchers, policymakers and other stakeholders to take appropriate measures for enhancing te in rice productivity, efficient management practices and consequent, sustainable agricultural planning. in this context, this study formulated the following three research questions viz., what is the te of rice productivity across all the districts in telangana? what is the trend in tes of rice productivity over a period of time? what input quantities are required to produce at the technically efficient point on the production frontier? [4] so, this study gives an important direction to farmers for employing right combination of productive resources in the rice production programme. further, the lack of empirical studies in telangana on this pertinent issue has prompted the researcher to conduct scientific enquiry across the 32 rice producing districts with the following specific objectives: ● to estimate tes in rice productivity across the districts or decision-making units (dmus) in telangana ● to find out the potentials for reduction in the levels of critical inputs across the dmus. ● to analyze the trends in te and sources of tfp of rice over the study period. 2. review of literature there have been a sizeable number of studies on efficiency measure in the field of agriculture through applying dea approach because of its non-parametric nature. a review of literature on application of dea in measuring efficiency in crop productivity is presented here under. tolga et al. (2009) [7] measured te and determinants of te of rice farms in marmara region, turkey. their study revealed that mean te score of sample rice farms was 0.92 and ranged between 0.75 to 1.00 implying that they can reduce the inputs usage by eight per cent without affecting the level of output. fabio (2015) [8] studied both technical and scale efficiency in the italian citrus farming through employing both dea and stochastic frontier analysis (sfa). the findings revealed that though the estimated te from sfa is on par with the dea, the scale efficiency realized from sfa is found higher compared to dea. both the models revealed that te and scale efficiency were positively influenced by farm size, unlike number of plots of land and location of farm in a less-favoured area. sivasankari et al. (2017) [9] employed dea to analyze the te of rice farms in cauvery delta zone of tamil nadu. the findings revealed that te index ranged from 0.41 to 1.00 under both constant returns to scale (crs) and 0.48 to 1.00 under variable returns to scale (vrs) specifications with mean tes of 0.76 and 0.81 respectively. 3 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 regarding scale efficiency, majority of the farms (81%) exhibited showed increasing return to scale (irs). the study also inferred that there is excess use for all inputs especially for fertilizers like potash, phosphorus and farm yard manure among the sample farms. bingjun and xiaoxiao (2018) [10] analyzed rice production efficiency based on dea-malmquist indices in henan province of china. the results showed that from the time dimension (2006-2016), the comprehensive te change, the technological progress change, the pure te change, the scale efficiency change and the tfp change have not shown much improvement. however, from the perspective of spatial dimension, the tfp of rice in all provinces is less than one, mainly because the production technology was not fully utilized in each area. so, they suggested strengthening of research and development, dissemination of advanced production technology, proper allocation of production factors etc., should deserve special attention to ensure efficiency improvement and thereby, food security of the country. joseph et al. (2018) [11] employed dea to measure te of rice production in the centre region of cameroon considering both crs and vrs assumptions. the findings revealed that the mean te score is 0.67 and 0.95 at the crs and vrs respectively and with a mean scale efficiency of 0.70. shamsudeen et al. (2018) [4] employed input-oriented dea to analyze the te of rice production in northern ghana for the 2011-2012 cropping season. the mean te score was 77 percent implying the farmers employed higher doses of inputs viz., chemical fertilizer, seed, weedicides and hired labour than their prescribed optimum. around 84.4 of the sample farms experienced irs, while 5.6 per cent experienced decreasing returns to scale (drs). nazir and abdur (2022) [12] analysed the tfp of cash crops viz., sugarcane, cotton, and rice in pakistan by employing malmquist productivity index. the study decomposed the tfp of cash crops into technical change and te change. the findings showed an increase in the tfp of selected cash crops in pakistan by 2.2 percent and this is mainly attributed to technical change. so, the researchers emphasized on increasing both research and extension investments to provide better seed varieties, better infrastructure, and timely credit facilities. 3. analytical framework and methodology this study uses a two-step approach. in the first step, the dea model was employed to measure te of dmus as an explicit function of discretionary variables pertaining to kharif season, 2021-2022. in the second step, dea-based malmquist index was used to analyze the trends in te of rice productivity during kharif season across the dmus over the reference period, 2019-2020 to 2021-2022. this study considered all the 32 dmus in telangana considering output variable (rice productivity) and input variables (seed rate, fertilizer doses (npk), water applied during crop growth period and organic manure). the secondary data on these variables are collected from respective joint director of agriculture offices at dmu level. 3.1 dea this linear programming tool was employed to measure the te of rice productivity in telangana considering input-oriented-crs model [13-15]. in this model, there are 32 dmus and each dmu uses four inputs (k) and produces one output (m). for the ith dmu, these are represented by the vectors xi and yi, respectively. the selected inputs and output are represented by a k × n input matrix denoted by x, and m × n output matrix denoted by y respectively. for the ith dmu, the efficiency score θ is obtained by solving the linear programming as follows: minθλ θ st -yi + y λ > 0 θxi xλ > 0 λ > 0 here, θ indicates the te score of input-oriented crs of the dmu under evaluation. if the value of θ = 1, it implies the dmu is functioning on the production frontier with 100 per cent of efficiency and hence, there is no need for changing the level of resources employed in the production. on the contrary, if θ < 1, it implies the dmu under consideration is relatively inefficient and thus, it could reduce the level of inputs usage without affecting the output [9]. 3.2 malmquist tfp index: input oriented, crs this index based on dea is employed to study the trends in te, technological change, pure te change, scale efficiency change and changes in tfp of rice productivity during 2019-2020 to 2021-2022 across the selected 32 dmus. so, the average values of the selected output and input variables during this reference period are subjected to dea-based malmquist index analysis. the change in productivity from the period t to t + 1 is calculated using the following formula [9,16]: m y x y x d y x d y x d yt t t t t t t t t t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 + + + + ( , , , )= xt+1 t+1 ( , ) ( , ) ( tt t t t t t t t x d y x m y x y x d + + + +       1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2, ) ( , ) / ( , , , )=t+1 t+1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t t t t t t t t t t t t y x d y x d y x d y x + + + + + + + + ( , ) ( , ) ( , ) ( , ) ** dd y x d y x d y x t t t t t t i t t t 1 1 1 1 1 2( , ) ( , ) / ( , ) + −                 = miin min min θλ θλ θ θ θd y x d y x i t t t i t t t + + + − + −   =   = 1 1 1 1 1 1 ( , ) ( , ) λλ θλ θ θd y xi t t t( , )+ + −   =1 1 1 min (1) where, m1 = malmquist productivity change index 4 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 d1 = input distance functions [15] y = the level of output(s) x = the level of input(s); and t = time equation (1) is decomposed as:m y x y x d y x d y x d yt t t t t t t t t t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 + + + + ( , , , )= xt+1 t+1 ( , ) ( , ) ( tt t t t t t t t x d y x m y x y x d + + + +       1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2, ) ( , ) / ( , , , )=t+1 t+1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t t t t t t t t t t t t y x d y x d y x d y x + + + + + + + + ( , ) ( , ) ( , ) ( , ) ** dd y x d y x d y x t t t t t t i t t t 1 1 1 1 1 2( , ) ( , ) / ( , ) + −                 = miin min min θλ θλ θ θ θd y x d y x i t t t i t t t + + + − + −   =   = 1 1 1 1 1 1 ( , ) ( , ) λλ θλ θ θd y xi t t t( , )+ + −   =1 1 1 min (2) the first term on the rhs of the above equation indicates the change in input-based te between the years t and t + 1, while the second term indicate the change in technology between the selected periods. from the above equation (2), it can be inferred that the product of change in te and technological change gives a measure of change in tfp. if the tfp is > 1, it implies the tfp is increasing during the selected periods (t and t + 1) and vice versa and if the tfp = 1, it implies no change [15]. to obtain the change in malmquist indices, the following series of linear programing problems (lpps) are to be solved [16]: 1 ( , )ti t td y x minθλθ −   =  (3) st -yit + yt λ > 0 θxit xtλ > 0 λ > 0 11 1 1( , ) t i t td y x minθλθ −+ + +  =  (4) st -yi,t+1 + yt+1 λ > 0 θxi,t+1 xt+1λ > 0 λ > 0 11( , )ti t td y x minθλθ −+  =  (5) st -yit + yt+1 λ > 0 θxit xt+1λ > 0 λ > 0 1 1 1( , ) t i t td y x minθλθ − + +  =  (6) st -yi,t+1 + yt λ > 0 θxi,t+1 xtλ > 0 λ > 0 these lpps are solved for each firm in the sample. therefore, given the number of periods (t) and number of observations (n), [n × (3t 2)] problems are to be solved. this study considered all the 32 districts (as the dmus) in telangana and the relevant secondary data are obtained from respective joint director of agriculture offices. rice yield (kg/ha) is considered as the output, whereas seed rate, fertilizer doses (npk), annual rainfall received (mm) and organic manure are considered as inputs. the average values of the output and input variables (2019-2020 to 2021-2022) are collected for the dmus and subjected to dea and dea-based malmquist tfp index analysis for estimating the te and change in te respectively. the efficiency analysis and malmquist index for efficiency change over time has been done using the deap version 2.1 program developed by coelli, 1996 [15]. 3.3 sample adequacy test according to cooper et al., 2007 [17], the thumb rules for sample size acceptable for conducting dea should be either greater than or equal to the product of inputs (x) and outputs (y) or the sample size should be at least three times the sum of the number of x and y variables. so, considering x = 4 and y = 1, the sample size of 32 dmus in telangana confirms the sample adequacy for conducting dea. 4. results and discussion 4.1 summary statistics of output and input variables table 1 shows that the average productivity of rice in telangana was estimated as 3288.28 kg/ha with maximum and minimum productivity levels of 3705 kg/ha and 2720 kg/ha respectively with the estimated coefficient of variation (cv) of 59.928 percent. there exist larger variations across the dmus in terms of inputs usage viz., fertilizer doses, seed rate, water applied and organic manure. regarding the quantity of fertilizers (npk) applied, it ranged from 110 kg/ha to 350 kg/ha with an average value of 263.37 kg/ha and cv of 55.798 percent. the application of chemical fertilizers is on the higher side among all the dmus compared to the recommended dosages (npk @ 120:40:40 kg ha-1 for short duration varieties; npk @ 150:50:60 kg ha-1 for medium duration varieties and npk @ 150:50:80 kg ha-1 for long duration varieties). similarly, average quantity of water applied was 1190.01 mm with minimum and maximum values of 780 mm and 1670 mm respectively and with a cv of 41.579 percent. for majority of the dmus (87%), the actual quantity of water applied is higher than the scientific recommendation of 1200 mm to 1250 mm. the quantity of seed used pitches between 17 kg/ha and 28 kg/ha with a mean value of 23.47 kg/ha and with a cv of 38.508 percent. a close examination of the data collected, the actual seed used by all the dmus is considerably higher compared to the recommended level of 20 kg/ha. however, the cv is 5 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 slightly lower with respect to organic manure applied for rice cultivation (24.617%) and across the dmus it varied between 2 t/ha to 12 t/ha with an average of 8.37 t/ha. the higher cvs of inputs is an indicative of presence of technical inefficiency in contributing to the productivity of rice across the dmus in telangana. again for majority of the dmus, the quantity of organic manure applied is higher compared to the recommended dosage of 8 t/ha to 10 t/ha. though the application of this input is on the higher side, it is heartening that the farmers realized the importance of organic farming in producing both costeffective and quality output. 4.2 dea-input-oriented crs the results of crs te scores (θ) along with benchmarking dmus and peer lambda weights (λj) for the dmus under evaluation are presented through table 2. the findings revealed that only nine out of 32 dmus namely, karimnagar, jogulamba gadwal, kamareddy, khammam, mahabubnagar, medak, medchal-malkajgiri, narayanpet and suryapet received te score of ‘1’. this implies they are the best performing dmus in telangana, as they are operating on the efficiency frontier in the peer group. for the remaining 23 dmus, the te scores are less than one ranging between 0.592 (warangal-rural) to 0.931 (jagtial) with a mean te score of 0.806. this implies presence of relative technical inefficiency in rice productivity, as these 23 dmus are operating below the efficiency frontier. so, these 23 dmus could reduce current level inputs to the tune of 19.4 per cent without affecting the rice productivity. the overall mean te score for all the 32 dmus was estimated as 0.860 indicating relative technical inefficiency is to the extent of 14 percent. this means that, on an average, the dmus can check over-use of current level input resources to the tune of 14 percent without affecting the rice productivity in the state. the dmu, warangalrural is with the lowest te score of 0.592 followed by vikarabad (0.611), mulugu (0.661), mancherial (0.717) etc., and all are lying at the bottom of the performance ladder (table 3). so, these dmus could reduce the current level of input usage by 40.80, 38.90, 33.90 and 28.30 percents respectively without affecting their corresponding rice productivity levels. for the inefficient dmus (θ < 1), the benchmarking dmus are given in column 4 and it will guide the former to reduce their inputs usage corresponding to the benchmarking dmus [9,10]. for example, suryapet and kamareddy are the benchmarking dmus for adilabad with respective lambda (λj) weights of 0.903 and 0.023. with the λj weights, the benchmarking dmus form linear combinations with the inefficient dmus in terms of efficiency perspective. for the efficient dmus (with te score of 1.000), the benchmarking dmus are peer of themselves with λj weights of ‘one’. the comparative picture of efficient and inefficient dmus in terms of te scores (figure 1) indicate that the dark color bars represent the dmus (9) operating on the efficiency frontier (with te scores of ‘1’) and the light color bars denote the dmus (23) lying below the efficiency frontier (with te scores of ‘<1’). so, the vertical gap between efficient and inefficient dmus indicate the extent of technical inefficiencies of 23 dmus. 4.3 determining optimal level of inputs utilization from the crs model from table 2, it was inferred that there are nine technically efficient dmus and 23 technically inefficient dmus. accordingly, dmu-wise projected input quantities and possible reductions across inefficient dmus was computed [14,15] to realize higher te scores without affecting their current level of rice productivity (table 4). the projected input quantities indicate the minimum quantities of selected inputs required across the dmus to produce technically efficient output on the production frontier. so, the difference between actual and projected quantities of inputs (obtained from the one-stage dea) indicate the possible input quantity reductions. for example, the actual use of fertilizers, seed rate, water applied and organic manure for the dmu, adilabad are 205.935 kg/ha, 32.67 kg/ha, table 1. summary statistics of output and input variables (2021-2022) item minimum maximum mean std. deviation cv rice productivity (kg/ha) 2720 3705 3288.28 1970.60 59.928 fertilizer use (npk) (kg/ha) 110 350 263.37 146.96 55.798 seed rate (kg/ha) 17 28 23.47 9.04 38.508 water applied (mm) 780 1670 1190.01 494.79 41.579 organic manure (t/ha) 2 12 8.37 2.06 24.617 6 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 table 2. results of input-oriented crs sl. no. districts crs technical efficiency (θ) benchmarking districts peer weights (λj) in order of benchmarking districts 1 adilabad 0.828 suryapet, kamareddy 0.903, 0.023 2 bhadradri kothagudem 0.875 medak, karimnagar, khammam 0.179, 0.631, 0.214 3 karimnagar 1.000 karimnagar 1.000 4 jagtial 0.931 kamareddy 0.920 5 jangaon 0.803 karimnagar, medchal-malkajgiri, narayanpet 0.668, 0.028, 0.288 6 jayashankar bhupalpally 0.858 suryapet, kamareddy 0.334, 0.566 7 jogulamba gadwal 1.000 jogulamba gadwal 1.000 8 kamareddy 1.000 kamareddy 1.000 9 khammam 1.000 khammam 1.000 10 kumuram bheem 0.812 khammam, karimnagar, suryapet 0.558, 0.403, 0.009 11 mahabubabad 0.868 kamareddy karimnagar, mahabubnagar, bhadradri kothagudem 0.357, 0.371, 0.137, 0.214 12 mahabubnagar 1.000 mahabubnagar 1.000 13 mancherial 0.717 karimnagar, kamareddy, suryapet 0.343, 0.505, 0.035 14 medak 1.000 medak 1.000 15 medchal-malkajgiri 1.000 medchal-malkajgiri 1.000 16 mulugu 0.661 khammam, karimnagar, suryapet 0.255, 0.469, 0.183 17 nagarkurnool 0.889 narayanpet, mahabubnagar 0.604, 0.365 18 nalgonda 0.834 narayanpet, jogulamba gadwal, suryapet 0.631, 0.120, 0.196 19 narayanpet 1.000 narayanpet 1.000 20 nirmal 0.724 suryapet, narayanpet, mahabubnagar, kamareddy 0.594, 0.036, 0.094, 0.245 21 nizamabad 0.848 suryapet, karimnagar, kamareddy 0.077, 0.523, 0.356 22 peddapalli 0.838 karimnagar, narayanpet, kamareddy suryapet 0.028, 0.319, 0.488, 0.226 23 rajanna sircilla 0.836 karimnagar, mahabubnagar, kamareddy, narayanpet 0.583, 0.115, 0.161, 0.136 24 rangareddy 0.869 karimnagar, medchal-malkajgiri, narayanpet 0.174, 0.089, 0.694 25 sangareddy 0.775 karimnagar, narayanpet, mahabubnagar 0.396, 0.456, 0.205 26 siddipet 0.819 karimnagar, medak, narayanpet, suryapet 0.323 0.01,1 0.059, 0.408 27 suryapet 1.000 suryapet 1.000 28 vikarabad 0.611 suryapet, narayanpet, jogulamba gadwal 0.101, 0.524, 0.211 29 wanaparthy 0.917 narayanpet 0.947 30 warangal (rural) 0.592 suryapet, narayanpet, kamareddy, mahabubnagar 0.021, 0.602, 0.224, 0.030 31 warangal (urban) 0.804 kamareddy, mahabubnagar, suryapet 0.195, 0.533, 0.201 32 yadadri bhuvanagiri 0.819 suryapet, narayanpet, jogulamba gadwal 0.017, 0.895, 0.173 average of all districts 0.860 source: authors’ estimation from deap version 2.1 [15] 7 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 table 3. frequency distribution and summary statistics on overall te, pure te and scale efficiency measures of selected dmus efficiency level no. of dmus per cent dmus 0.501-0.600 1 3.12 warangal (rural) 0.601-0.700 2 6.25 mulugu, vikarabad 0.701-0.800 3 9.38 mancherial, niirmal, sangareddy 0.801-0.900 15 46.88 a d i l a b a d , b h a d r a d r i k o t h a g u d e m , j a n g a o n , j a y a s h a n k a r bhupalpally, kumuram bheem, mahabubabad, nagarkurnool, nalgonda, nizamabad, peddapalli, rajanna siricilla, rangareddy, siddipet, warangal (urban), yadadri bhuvanagiri 0.901-0.999 2 6.25 jagtial, wanaparthy 1.000 9 28.13 karimnagar, jogulamba gadwal, kamareddy, khammam, mahbubnagar, medak, medchal-malkajgiri, narayanpet, suryapet total 32 100.00 minimum 0.592 maximum 1.000 mean 0.860 source: authors’ estimation from deap version 2.1 [15] figure 1. position of the dmus in relation to te scores 8 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 1511.301 mm and 10.215 t/ha respectively, whereas the projected input values obtained from the model for maintaining the same productivity (3124.73 kg/ha) are 145.395 kg/ha, 27.04 kg/ha, 1276.821 mm and 6.455 t/ha respectively. so, the estimated differences between the actual and projected input values (fertilizers 60.54 kg/ha; seed use 5.63 kg/ha; water applied 234.48 mm and organic manure 3.76 t/ha) indicate their excess use in rice production. hence, this excess use of inputs should be reduced for adilabad without affecting rice productivity. the same explanation can be offered for other technically inefficient dmus. however, for the efficient dmus with te score 1.000, the gap between actual and projected input usage is around zero, as they are already operating on the production frontier (the best performing dmus) and hence, there is no scope for reduction in the existing level of inputs usage. at the pooled (state) level i.e., considering the average of all the dmus, there is overuse of fertilizers, seed use, water applied and organic manure to the tune of 53.998 kg/ha, 6.528 kg/ha, 86.436 mm and 2.249 t/ha respectively, as the production scenario of rice in dominated by technically inefficient dmus (23) compared to only nine technical efficient dmus. so, it is felt appropriate to compare the extent of inputs usage between technically efficient dmus and technically inefficient dmus in terms of rice productivity in telangana. as shown through table 5, the efficient dmus (n = 9) employed on an average of 170.184 kg/ha of fertilizer, 21.667 kg/ha of seed, 1275.986 mm of water applied and 5.000 t/ha of organic manure to produce a yield of 3317 kg/ha of rice. however, for the inefficient dmus (n = 23), to move up to the production level of the efficient dmus, they should check excess application of fertilizers by 40.105 kg/ha, seed by 3.724 kg/ha, water use by 36.100 mm and organic manure by 2.870 t/ha in order to boost rice productivity by 778 kg/ha [4]. 4.4 trends in te of dmus malmquist tfp index table 6 portrayed the malmquist indices for each dmu during the period 2019-2020 to 2021-2022 [18]. the findings revealed that with reference to te change index, 78 percent of the dmus have made progress (te change value >1.000) and remaining 22 percent of dmus have regressed (te change value <1.000). the top three dmus that showed progress with reference to te change include: nizamabad (48.3%), nagarkurnool (45.5%) and sangareddy (43.4%) and the top three dmus that are regressed in terms of te change are kumuram bheem (30.3%), jagtial (22.2%) and khammam (19.5%). it is heartening that the mean score for te change in telangana is more than 1 (i.e. 1.153) and this shows that the dmus as a whole have witnessed impressive performance in te change of rice productivity during the reference period [9,10,16]. however, it is disappointing that 56% of the dmus have regressed with reference to technological change during the above reference period and hence, the mean score of technological index in telangana is less than one (0.983). the top three dmus that are regressed include: mulugu, medak and narayanpet with 13.6 percent, 12.9 percent and 12.8 percent respectively. it is found interesting that majority of the dmus have showed progress with reference to pure te change (53%) and scale efficiency change (59%). further, 75 percent of the dmus showed progress with reference to tfp change and remaining 25 percent of dmus have regressed. the top three dmus viz., nizamabad, karimnagar and sangareddy have enjoyed tfp growth of 42.1 percent, 40.1 percent and 35.2 percent respectively. at the state level, the results are found encouraging with reference to te change (15.3%), pure te change (4.2%), scale efficiency change (0.9%) and tfp change (11.2%). so, on comparing the te change and technological change, it can be inferred that the progress in tfp change is purely from te change during the reference period. the break-up of malmquist indices across the selected periods viz., 2019-2020 to 2021-2022 (table 7) revealed that te change has showed increasing trend during from 1.139 (2019-2020) to 1.179 (2021-2022) with mean te change of 1.153. this shows that there is a gradual progress in terms of te change for enhancing rice productivity in the state during the overall reference period. on the contrary, the mean technological change was regressed during the reference period with 0.983. though technological change was marginally progressed (2.7%) during 2021-2022 compared to 2020-2021, the mean technological change is regressed during the overall reference period. it is also interesting that the dmus have marginally progressed in terms of pure te change (4.2%) and scale efficiency change (0.9%) during the reference period. the tfp change has witnessed progress in the state with an average value of 1.112. considering these trends, it can be inferred that at state level, pure te change and scale efficiency change have almost remained stagnant and hence, the gain in tfp of rice in telangana is solely due to te change of inputs over time. 9 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 table 4. results of input-oriented crs: single stage calculation s.no districts projected input quantities possible inputs reduction (actual projected) fertilizer use (npk) (kg/ha) seed rate (kg/ha) water applied (mm) organic manure applied (t/ha) fertilizer use (npk) (kg/ha) seed rate (kg/ha) water applied (mm) organic manure applied (t/ha) 1 adilabad 145.395 27.040 1276.821 6.455 60.540 5.630 234.480 3.760 2 bhadradri kothagudem 181.191 36.177 1399.781 3.501 51.620 5.160 130.776 1.000 3 karimnagar 145.670 38.000 1232.784 3.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 4 jagtial 100.580 34.959 1562.051 5.520 14.840 5.370 42.354 4.960 5 jangaon 142.383 36.562 1122.035 3.212 69.900 14.100 91.800 0.900 6 jayashankar bhupalpally 114.741 31.185 1418.841 5.733 37.860 5.150 129.900 2.540 7 jogulamba gadwal 201.000 28.000 871.146 7.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.660 8 kamareddy 109.330 38.000 1697.940 6.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.660 9 khammam 205.670 29.330 1649.358 5.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.660 10 kumuram bheem 174.908 31.947 1429.609 4.061 80.860 7.390 185.790 1.220 11 mahabubabad 137.995 40.209 1400.504 5.207 42.020 6.120 71.058 0.920 12 mahabubnagar 115.000 39.000 1025.550 8.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.660 13 mancherial 110.722 33.239 1328.369 4.305 87.220 13.090 194.862 2.720 14 medak 252.330 33.000 1499.022 3.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.660 15 medchal-malkajgiri 208.000 53.000 1217.412 2.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 16 mulugu 149.843 30.627 1250.676 3.966 153.640 15.710 290.424 3.400 17 nagarkurnool 124.410 34.599 930.028 5.341 31.180 7.070 38.850 3.320 18 nalgonda 141.268 30.309 953.896 4.739 56.140 6.020 63.162 5.860 19 narayanpet 136.330 33.670 918.846 4.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.660 20 nirmal 136.427 31.388 1359.256 6.520 103.820 11.950 172.374 4.300 21 nizamabad 127.272 35.636 1354.761 4.242 45.460 6.360 120.462 1.520 22 peddapalli 136.674 36.894 1466.075 5.869 52.660 7.110 94.134 2.260 23 rajanna sircilla 134.357 37.354 1235.797 4.181 52.620 7.310 80.676 1.640 24 rangareddy 138.404 34.680 960.221 3.475 41.860 6.650 48.396 1.060 25 sangareddy 143.316 38.366 1116.504 4.648 83.360 12.970 108.246 2.700 26 siddipet 122.589 26.480 1029.404 4.095 54.160 5.850 75.798 1.820 27 suryapet 158.330 29.000 1371.816 7.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 28 vikarabad 129.762 26.471 803.320 4.276 187.140 16.860 170.538 6.120 29 wanaparthy 129.065 31.876 869.879 3.787 70.540 5.790 26.154 7.760 30 warangal (rural) 113.414 30.574 993.618 4.142 156.500 21.090 228.534 6.380 31 warangal (urban) 114.463 34.042 1153.809 6.844 55.740 8.290 93.636 4.320 32 yadadri bhuvanagiri 159.532 35.477 996.773 4.913 138.260 7.860 73.548 1.500 average of all districts 145.012 33.972 1215.497 4.814 53.998 6.528 86.436 2.249 source: authors’ estimation from deap version 2.1 [15] table 5. comparison of average input use between inefficient and efficient farmers in telangana input use number of dmus mean te score fertilizer use (npk) (kg/ha) seed rate (kg/ha) water applied (mm) organic manure applied (t/ha) yield (kg/ha) average of efficient dmus 9 1.000 170.184 21.667 1275.986 5.000 3317 average of inefficient dmus 23 0.806 210.289 25.391 1312.086 7.870 2539 source: authors’ estimation from deap version 2.1 (coelli et al., 1996 [15]) 10 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 table 6. malmquist index summary for district means districts te change technological change pure te change scale efficiency change tfp change adilabad 0.879 0.979 0.867 1.013 0.861 bhadradri kothagudem 1.217 0.961 0.950 1.070 1.209 karimnagar 1.410 1.092 1.000 1.010 1.401 jagtial 0.778 1.042 0.855 0.910 0.811 jangaon 1.161 0.957 1.115 1.042 1.112 jayashankar bhupalpally 1.117 1.048 0.863 0.970 1.108 jogulamba gadwal 1.113 0.996 1.000 0.941 1.108 kamareddy 1.084 1.044 1.055 1.027 1.132 khammam 0.805 0.979 0.853 0.944 0.788 kumuram bheem 0.697 0.918 0.726 0.960 0.640 mahabubabad 0.826 1.015 1.000 0.826 0.838 mahabubnagar 1.254 0.972 1.044 1.010 1.211 mancherial 1.290 0.964 1.417 0.910 1.317 medak 1.340 0.871 1.280 1.047 1.303 medchal-malkajgiri 1.390 1.014 1.044 1.044 1.284 mulugu 1.113 0.864 1.084 1.026 1.064 nagarkurnool 1.455 0.968 1.074 0.964 1.002 nalgonda 1.061 1.010 1.012 1.049 1.072 narayanpet 0.862 0.872 1.000 0.862 0.752 nirmal 1.170 0.924 1.000 1.170 1.162 nizamabad 1.483 1.000 1.265 1.123 1.421 peddapalli 1.333 0.996 1.186 1.124 1.328 rajanna sircilla 1.123 0.952 0.953 0.992 1.048 rangareddy 1.343 1.002 1.100 1.039 1.345 sangareddy 1.434 1.015 1.250 0.987 1.352 siddipet 1.165 1.046 1.068 1.090 1.089 suryapet 1.026 0.970 1.000 1.026 0.995 vikarabad 1.043 1.017 0.958 1.088 1.060 wanaparthy 1.275 1.009 1.036 1.133 1.211 warangal (rural) 1.356 0.966 1.202 0.961 1.316 warangal (urban) 1.331 1.006 1.151 0.896 1.298 yadadri bhuvanagiri 0.954 0.983 0.922 1.035 0.938 average of all districts 1.153 0.983 1.042 1.009 1.112 note: all malmquist index averages are geometric means source: authors’ estimation from deap version 2.1 [15] 11 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 5. summary and conclusions input-oriented dea model with crs was employed in this study to analyze the te in rice productivity in telangana. out of 32 dmus considered, only nine dmus are found technically efficient. the overall te score for telangana is 0.860 implying that the dmus, on an average, could reduce their inputs usage by 14 per cent without affecting their current level of rice productivity. compared to technically efficient dmus, inefficient dmus has to check the use of inputs viz, fertilizer use by 40.105 kg/ ha, seed use by 3.724 kg/ha, water use by 36.100 mm and organic manure use by 2.870 t/ha in order to boost yield by 778 kg/ha and to reach on the production frontier. malmquist index analysis concluded that the progress in tfp change during 2019-2020 to 2021-2022 was purely due to te change only. during this period, on an average, the technological change has regressed and pure te change and scale efficiency change have almost remained stagnant. 6. policy recommendations policy suggestions from this study include: dissemination of modern production technologies to the farmers, capacity building of farmers on good agricultural practices, supply of quality inputs to farmers at affordable prices etc., should deserve special attention. the poor and marginalized farmers cultivating rice in the state must be encouraged to join farmer-producer organizations (fpos) for availing need-based assistance, participation in various training programs and benefit from strengthened backward linkages to enhance te of inputs usage. further, to boost the technological change, the government should enhance investments both in research and extension. the enabling environment in the state should be conducive to promoting private sector agricultural investments [19]. the coordination between demand-driven research and technology dissemination should also be given priority. conflict of interest there is no conflict of interest. references [1] inauguration address by ms. fresco, adg, fao on the occasion of the international year of rice 2004, (iyr) www.fao.com. (accessed on 8/7/2022) [2] rice paddy production in the asia-pacific region in 2020, by country, 2022. https://www.statista.com/ statistics/681740/asia-pacific-rice-paddy-production-by-country/. [3] agricultural statistics at a glance, 2020. ministry of agriculture & farmers welfare, department of agriculture, cooperation & farmers welfare, government of india. [4] abdulai, s., nkegbe, p.k., donkoh, s.a., 2018. assessing the technical efficiency of maize production in northern ghana: the data envelopment analysis approach. food science & technology, cogent food and agriculture. [5] mohapatra, t., nayak, a.k., raja, r., et al., 2013. central rice research institute. cuttack: icar-national rice research institute. retrieved from http://www.crri.nic.in/ebook_crrivision2050_final_ 16jan13.pdf. [6] socio-economic outlook, 2022. planning department, government of telangana. [7] tipi, t., yildiz, n., nargeleçekenler, m., et al., 2009. measuring the te and determinants of efficiency of rice (oryza sativa) farms in marmara region, turkey. new zealand journal of crop and horticultural science. 37, 121-129. [8] fabio, a., 2015. madau technical and scale efficiency in the italian citrus farming: a comparison between sfa and dea approaches. agricultural economics review. 16(2). [9] sivasankari, b., vasanthi, r., prema, p., 2017. determination of technical efficiency in paddy farms table 7. malmquist index summary of annual means year te change technological change pure te change scale efficiency change tfp change 2019-2020 1.139 1.029 1.038 1.019 1.089 2020-2021 1.140 0.947 1.033 0.986 1.120 2021-2022 1.179 0.974 1.055 1.023 1.127 mean 1.153 0.983 1.042 1.009 1.112 note: all malmquist index averages are geometric means source: authors’ estimation from deap version 2.1 [15] http://www.fao.com http://www.crri.nic.in/ebook_crrivision2050_final_16jan13.pdf http://www.crri.nic.in/ebook_crrivision2050_final_16jan13.pdf 12 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 of canal irrigated systems in tamil nadu: a data envelopment analysis approach. international journal of chemical studies. 5(5), 33-36. [10] li, b.j., zhu, x.x., 2018. analysis of maize production efficiency based on dea-malmquist indexes: a case study of henan province. journal of agricultural chemistry and environment. 7, 176-187. [11] joseph serge evouna mbarga, joël sotamenou, martin paul jr.tabe-ojong and ernest l. molua, technical efficiency of maize production in the centre region of cameroon: a data envelopment analysis (dea), developing country studies www.iiste.org, vol.8, no.4, 2018 [12] khan, n.u., rehman, a., 2022. decomposition of total factor productivity of cash crops in pakistan: a malmquist data envelop analysis. journal of economic impact. 4(1), 139-144. [13] banker, r.d., charnes, a., cooper, w.w., 1984. some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis. management science. 30, 1078-1092. [14] charnes, a., cooper, w.w., rhodes, e., 1978. measuring the efficiency of decision making units. european journal of operations research. 2, 429-444. [15] coelli, t.j., 1996. a guide to deap version 2.1: a data envelopment analysis (computer) program (cepa working papers no. 8/96). armidale: centre for efficiency and productivity analysis (cepa), university of new england, department of econometrics. [16] benli, y.k., degirmen, s., 2013. the application of data envelopment analysis based malmquist total factor productivity index: empirical evidence in turkish banking sector. panoeconomicus. 2(special issue), 139-159. [17] cooper, w.w., seiford, l.m., tone, k., 2007. data envelopment analysis: a comprehensive text with models, applications, references and dea-solver software (second edition). new york: springer science + business media. [18] malmquist, s., 1953. index numbers and indifference surfaces. trabajos de estatistica. 4(2), 209242. [19] kumar, k.n.r., babu, s.c., 2021. can a weather-based crop insurance scheme increase the technical efficiency of smallholders? a case study of groundnut farmers in india. sustainability. 13, 9327. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/su13169327 http://www.iiste.org 48 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: ganesh raj joshi, department of agricultural economics and agribusiness management, agriculture and forestry university, rampur, chitwan, nepal; email: grjoshi20@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.761 received: 2 november 2022; received in revised form: 11 december 2022; accepted: 19 december 2022; published: 30 december 2022 citation: joshi1, g.r., bhandari, r., 2022. climate adaptation in rain-fed agriculture: analyzing the determinants of supplemental irrigation practices in nepal. research on world agricultural economy. 3(4), 761. http://dx.doi. org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.761 research article climate adaptation in rain-fed agriculture: analyzing the determinants of supplemental irrigation practices in nepal ganesh raj joshi1* ramchandra bhandari2 1. department of agricultural economics and agribusiness management, agriculture and forestry university, rampur, chitwan, nepal 2. institute for technology and resources management in the tropics and subtropics, university of applied sciences, cologne, germany abstract: climate change has severely impacted the rain-fed agricultural production system which is dominant in nepal. this situation demands implementable strategies like supplemental irrigation for mitigating adverse impacts. in spite of the importance of supplemental irrigation, it is not adopted on a wider scale. hence, this paper aims to assess perceptions of climate change and identify factors that influence the adoption of supplemental irrigation practices. climate change impact survey data for province no. 1 (one of the seven provinces in nepal) with a sample of 800 households were analyzed by using the probit regression model. the results showed that the majority of the farmers perceived increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation, resulting in climate-induced disasters such as drought. similarly, only about 27% of the households have adopted supplemental irrigation practices. the significant factors influencing the adoption of supplemental irrigation practices were the household head’s number of years of farming experience and education level, distance to motorable roads, operational size of landholding, membership in community-based organizations, and the perception of changes in summer temperature. considering the empirical results, it is necessary to undertake research on sustainable practices and develop support measures for scaling up this practice as the adoption of this practice is very low in province no. 1. the policy and strategy should also emphasize enhancing the capacity of farmers in technical and managerial aspects of supplemental irrigation practices, raising awareness about climate change and its impact, and strengthening communitybased organizations for sharing and exchanging knowledge and skills. in addition, creating additional employment opportunities to enhance the income of the farmers for mitigating the capital constraint and increasing investment in infrastructures like roads for improving physical access thereby promoting adoption. keywords: agriculture; adaptation; climate; supplemental irrigation; perceptions; nepal http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.761 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.761 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.761 http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3555-2505 http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4892-0397 49 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 1. introduction agriculture is the main sector of the economy in terms of its contribution to the gross domestic product (gdp) and providing employment to the economically active population. the indicators such as labor productivity, productivity gaps, trade and competitiveness, poverty and malnutrition, and infrastructure highlight that the nepalese agricultural sector is in a low development stage. the production system in nepal is mostly subsistence and cultivated under rain-fed conditions. nepalese agriculture is characterized by low input use with low land (usd 1804/ ha) and labor productivity (usd 794/person) [1]. the per capita gdp in nepal was usd 708 in 2012/2013 which has reached usd 1381 in 2021/2022 [2]. in nepal, the agricultural production system is heavily dependent on monsoon rain, hence more sensitive to climate change. the agricultural production and productivity of crops and commodities are affected by the time, duration, and intensity of precipitation and its pattern. the majority of the people earn their livelihood from the cultivation of crops such as paddy, maize, wheat, millet, and potato, and rearing different types of livestock, changes in the pattern of precipitation especially the monsoon rainfall highly aggravate the poverty and inequality in the country. although there may be some short-run location-specific positive effects, these would be offset by the negative effects of rising temperatures and frequent occurrences of drought [3]. the diverse topography and social vulnerability have made nepal prone to geological and climate-related disasters. different climatic hazards have led to increased soil erosion, landslides, flash floods, and droughts in recent years across the country with increased intensity and impact on the lives and livelihoods of the people in nepal [4]. because of the occurrence of such extreme weather events between 2000 and 2019, nepal is the 10th most vulnerable country with 0.82 fatalities per 10,000 inhabitants and 0.39% losses per unit gdp [5] despite nepal’s very lower share (0.06%) to global greenhouse gas (ghg) emission [6]. combining political, geographic, and social factors, unm (2020) estimated nd-gain index and considered nepal as vulnerable to climate change impacts with a rank of 126th position out of 181 countries with a low score of 41.7. the long-term impact of climate change on agriculture and food security is inevitable, which will have disproportionately bigger impacts on women, dalits, indigenous people, and other marginalized communities. about 90% of crop loss in nepal can be attributed to weather-related events, increased temperature, and hazards such as irregular rainfall, droughts, and floods triggered by them. when crops, livestock, and fisheries are combined, climate change induced losses in production are equivalent to 10% to 30%. among them, drought is the most critical hazard. between 1971 and 2007 droughts accounted for 38.9% and floods for 23.2% of all losses caused by weather and climate-related events [7]. the increasing temperature negatively affects animals in terms of gaining weight, reproduction, breeding patterns, feed consumption, and conversion efficiency. the agricultural sector suffers significantly in the years to come from climate change. it is estimated that south asia would lose 1.8% of its annual gdp by 2050 while this would increase to 8.8% by 2100 if countries lack in implementing adaptation strategies. this figure for nepal will be 9.9% by 2100. it is estimated that the direct cost of current climate variability and extreme events is equivalent to 1.5%-2% of the current gdp per year in nepal. this amount would be approximately usd 270-360 million per year in 2013 prices. it would be much higher in years with extreme climatic events [8]. agricultural production is anticipated to be impacted by changes in precipitation patterns, leading to significant annual yield fluctuation and increased production risks. in addition, croplands and yields are predicted to be negatively impacted by climate change if weather-related risks such as droughts and floods occur more frequently [9]. the contribution of irrigation is immense to increasing agricultural production. on average, irrigated agriculture is at least twofold as productive per unit of land in comparison to rain-fed agriculture, leading to more intensification and diversification of crops [10]. irrigation is the most important variable affecting the growth of agricultural total factor productivity (atfp) in nepal. in the context of the high variability of rainfall in nepal, assured irrigation water supply complements the potentiality of biological techniques such as variety thereby resulting in increased productivity. the irrigation ratio shows that with a one percent increase in irrigated area, the atfp would increase by 1.38% [11]. the contribution of irrigation and variety alone would contribute respectively to 29% and 30% of total incremental yield while their interactions would contribute 41% to total incremental yield [12]. under the rice-wheat cropping pattern, as we go up from improved variety-unirrigated to improved variety-irrigated farming, the incremental grain yield would be 41% in the case of paddy and 35% in the case of wheat in nepal [11]. although irrigation is an important production input for increasing agricultural production and productivity, it has not been available as per the need of the crops and is also not under the control of the farmers. over 60% of the 50 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 cultivated area still depends on monsoon and winter rain for crop cultivation in nepal. investments in the ponds and collecting rainwater for supplemental irrigation have been one of the coping strategies to mitigate the impacts of droughts and irregular rainfall in nepal. supplemental irrigation can be described as the addition of small amounts of water to mainly rain-fed crops during times when rainfall fails to deliver enough moisture for normal plant growth, in order to improve and stabilize yields [13]. it is a simple but highly effective technology that facilitates the farmers to plant and manage crops at the optimal time, without being dependent on erratic rainfall [14]. when a limited amount of water is utilized properly during the critical stages of crop growth, this may lead to crop growth and can result in a substantial increase in yield and water productivity. this strategy can be considered an efficient response to lessen the undesirable impact of soil moisture stress during dry spells on the yield of rain-fed crops. the adoption of supplemental irrigation practices such as rainwater harvesting, collection of water in ponds, and use of non-conventional methods (drip and sprinkler irrigation) would help lessen the over-dependence on rainfall with proper planning and management [15]. however, the adoption of such practices is low in spite of their effectiveness and viability as a coping strategy to climate change, most importantly in the resource-constraint rain-fed environment. there could be several reasons for the slow and low adoption of such important practices for climate adaptation but are not well documented in the previous literature. province no. 1 (one of the seven provinces in nepal) in general and hilly and mountain districts in particular are experiencing mid-season dry spells and an increase in the incidence of drought, which is mainly because of climate variability and change. this creates high risks in agricultural production, which further worsens poverty and food insecurity in the province. in this context, this paper intends to assess climate change perceptions and identify factors that affect the adoption behavior of farmers toward supplemental irrigation practices. 2. materials and methods 2.1 description of the study area 2.1.1 general background province no. 1 has an area of 25905 square kilometers with an elevation from 60 m to 8848 m. mt. everest, the highest peak in the world lies in this province. this province has 14 districts covering mountains, hills, and terai ecological region. out of the total land area, 23% of the area is cultivated. the total agricultural (cultivable) land in this province is 783595 ha out of which surface irrigation is available in 284863 ha while groundwater irrigation is in 48155 ha with a total of 333018 ha irrigated. it reveals that 42.5% of the total cultivable area has received irrigation facilities [16]. however, the year-round irrigation water available is lower than this figure. 2.1.2 climatic information there is a wide spatial and temporal variation in climatic variables across the province. it was observed that the precipitation (mm/day) in pre-monsoon is 3.38 mm, summer 12.05 mm, post-monsoon 1.63 mm, and winter 0.37 mm with an average of 5.26 mm [7]. as the monsoon starts from the eastern part of nepal, province no. 1 has the highest pre-monsoon rainfall. the winter precipitation in nepal is influenced by westerlies, and consequently, figure 1. map of nepal showing province no. 1. 51 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 the far-western (sudurpaschim) province of nepal gets higher precipitation. the winter precipitation gradually decreases as westerlies become weak from west to east of the country with the lowest precipitation in province no. 1 and madhes province [17]. a study in the koshi river basin found that by the end of the century, there will be 4 °c increase in temperature [18], the minimum and maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 6.33 °c and 3.82 °c respectively [19], and the likelihood of an increase in temperature will be higher in the mountains than in the plains [20]. the future projection of climatic variables is based on the two representative concentration pathways (rcps) rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 [21]. compared to the reference period (1981-2010), the precipitation is likely to increase in all the scenarios and periods for all districts, while higher for mountains and hills than for terai. in the medium term, the precipitation would increase by 2.79 to 4.31% while it is projected to increase by 2.12 to 8.32% in the long term. the temperature increase ranged between 0.79% to 4.07% in the medium term and 0.98% to 1.76% in the long term compared with the reference period. it also shows that compared to the reference period, the number of rainy days and consecutive dry days is likely to decrease in all the districts. there will be an increase in warm days in all the districts which can be inferred about the overall temperature rise in the future. the changes in climatic parameters for the sample districts (of this study) are given in table 1. table 1. changes in climatic parameters in different periods. s.n. districts reference period (days) rcp4.5 rcp8.5 1981-2010 2016-2045 2036-2065 2016-2045 2036-2065 1 dhankuta change in precipitation (%) 1916 mm 2.79 3.34 2.24 6.92 change in temperature (°c) 17.2 0.79 1.13 0.99 1.68 change in no. of rainy days (%) 180.3 –0.78 –0.36 –1.87 –1.30 change in consecutive dry days (%) 44.8 1.96 –0.39 –0.95 –1.78 change in consecutive wet days (%) 92.4 –8.34 –5.46 –5.41 –11.88 change in warm days (%) 37 8.12 10.97 9.13 15.22 2 khotang change in precipitation (%) 1717 mm 2.88 4.07 3.01 7.67 change in temperature (°c) 15.9 0.79 1.13 0.99 1.67 change in no. of rainy days (%) 174.4 –0.87 –0.31 –1.86 –1.40 change in consecutive dry days (%) 45.9 2.01 –2.07 –0.28 –0.62 change in consecutive wet days (%) 90.9 –8.85 –5.75 –1.52 –8.96 change in warm days (%) 36.9 7.65 10.30 8.51 14.31 3 morang change in precipitation (%) 2015 mm 2.88 3.53 2.12 6.49 change in temperature (°c) 23.2 0.84 1.2 1.04 1.76 change in no. of rainy days (%) 173.8 –0.75 –0.52 –1.97 –1.34 change in consecutive dry days (%) 51.8 2.99 –0.66 –0.34 –4.86 change in consecutive wet days (%) 92.8 –5.91 –2.75 –4.73 –10.71 change in warm days (%) 37.3 7.63 10.36 8.93 14.94 4 panchthar change in precipitation (%) 2235 mm 3.52 3.68 2.21 7.79 change in temperature (°c) 14.3 0.77 1.11 0.98 1.64 change in no. of rainy days (%) 193.3 –1.18 –0.24 –1.44 –0.78 change in consecutive dry days (%) 40.4 4.09 –0.54 –2.68 –5.57 change in consecutive wet days (%) 103.9 –5.02 –1.55 –4.66 –10.35 change in warm days (%) 37.4 8.13 11.40 9.94 16.00 5 taplejung change in precipitation (%) 2607 mm 3.45 4.31 2.68 8.32 change in temperature (°c) 2.5 0.84 1.19 1.04 1.74 change in no. of rainy days (%) 224.6 –1.01 –0.18 –0.78 –0.06 change in consecutive dry days (%) 31.5 3.80 2.16 –2.28 –6.26 change in consecutive wet days (%) 129.4 –1.09 –1.41 –3.44 –7.26 change in warm days (%) 37 7.32 10.49 8.40 14.39 source: mofe, 2019. 52 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 2.2 sampling and data collection in this paper, the data collected by the central bureau of statistics for the national climate change impact survey 2016 [22] has been used. this data from cbs is still pertinent in analyzing the factors contributing to the adoption of irrigation practices such as supplemental irrigation in the rain-fed production system of nepal. the sample selection was carried out in three stages: in the first stage the districts were selected, in the second stage the primary sampling unit (psu), and in the final stage the households. this process was adopted for each of the 16 domains distinctly which were treated as a stratum. independent samples in each stratum were selected. for sample selection, the probability proportional to size (pps) sampling technique was used in all stages, where the size measure adopted for each was the number of expected households in that district. after selecting districts with 16 domains, a sample of psus was selected to represent each district. the number of psus chosen from each district was governed by dividing the number of households to be selected in each domain by 20, divided by the number of districts selected in that domain. the listing of the households was based on 45 years or older age of the potential respondents and living in that area for at least 25 years. furthermore, large psus were sub-divided into a more convenient size and one of these sub-divided psus was carefully chosen to represent the whole psu using pps sampling. in addition, the psus with more than 500 households were subdivided into smaller units. a total of 253 psus were selected as a sample consisting of a sample of 5060 households. among the seven provinces of nepal, this study is focused on province no. 1 comprising 5 districts one each from the mountains (taplejung) and terai (morang) and three from the hilly (panchthar, dhankuta, and khotang) ecological region of nepal. the primary sampling unit (psu) from 101140 (representing province no. 1) with a sample size of 800 households was considered as a sample size. the data was collected by using a pre-tested questionnaire. the data included broad topics such as demography, socioeconomic aspects, knowledge and perception, climate-induced disasters and socioeconomic impacts, natural resources, and adaptation practices adopted by households to cope with adverse situations created due to changing climate. the data collection was primarily based on the memory recall method. the respondents provided information related to changes in temperature, precipitation, and seasonal shift in the last 25 years and on the impact of climate-induced disasters in the last 5 years. 2.3 analytical framework many adoption studies assume that farmers behave rationally whose goal is to maximize an unobserved expected utility function [23]. farmers’ adoption of climate change adaptation practices like supplemental irrigation is assumed to be based upon utility maximization. farmers maximize the utility of the adoption of such practices than not adopting them. in other words, farmers adopt practices only when the utility they get from such practices is higher than the utility they get without adopting them. although one cannot directly observe the utility farmers get, the decision of farmers to adopt can be observed. the utility function which motivates the farmers in deciding on adopting technology can be given as: 𝑈𝑖1 = 𝛽1𝑋𝑖 + 𝜀𝑖1 (1) 𝑈𝑖0 = 𝛽0𝑋𝑖 + 𝜀𝑖0 (2) equation (1) is for adoption whereas equation (2) is for not adopting practice/technology. in the above equations, 𝑈𝑖1 and 𝑈𝑖0 represent perceived utilities from adoption and non-adoption, respectively. 𝑋𝑖 is the vector of explanatory variables that are assumed to affect the perception of the household’s utility. 𝛽1 and 𝛽0 are the parameters to be estimated and 𝜀𝑖1 and 𝜀𝑖0 are error terms with a zero mean. if the ith household makes a decision to adopt the practice/technology, the utility from the adoption is greater than the utility received from not adopting it, which can be described as: 𝑈𝑖1(𝛽1𝑋𝑖 + 𝜀𝑖1) > 𝑈𝑖0(𝛽0𝑋𝑖 + 𝜀𝑖0) (3) hence, the probability that the ith household will adopt an adaptation practice can be defined as: 𝑃(1) = 𝑃(𝑈𝑖1 > 𝑈𝑖0) 𝑃(1) = 𝑃(𝛽1𝑋𝑖 + 𝜀𝑖1 > 𝛽0𝑋𝑖 + 𝜀𝑖0) 𝑃(1) = 𝑃(𝜀𝑖0 − 𝜀𝑖1 < 𝛽1𝑋𝑖 − 𝛽0𝑋𝑖) (4) 𝑃(1) = 𝑃(𝜀𝑖 < 𝛽𝑋𝑖) 𝑃(1) = ψ(𝛽𝑋𝑖) where p is a probability function and 𝑈𝑖1, 𝑈𝑖0 and 𝑋𝑖 are as defined above. 𝛽 is a vector of parameters that will be estimated by maximum likelihood. ψ is a cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution. as the values of the dependent variable are dichotomous (0, 1), the probit model is used. this model is used in several previous studies on irrigation technology adoption [24,25] as it permits the analysis of farmers’ decisions between adoption and non-adoption, with a binary variable as a dependent variable. it is generated by a latent model in the form shown in the following equation: yi ∗ = 𝛽i xi + 𝜀i 𝜀i ∽ n(0,1) (5) yi = 1 𝑖𝑓 yi ∗ > 0 0 𝑖𝑓 yi ∗ ≤ 0 where yi ∗ is a latent variable representing the ith household’s utility from adopting adaptation practice depends on a vector of characteristics, xi. yi denotes an observable 53 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 variable taking a value of 0 or 1. 2.4 variables used different types of variables related to demographic, socioeconomic, topographical and institutions affect the adoption of irrigation practices among farming households. based on the previous studies and considering the context, the explanatory variables considered include gender, operational land holding, education, location of the farm, farming experience, proximity to the market, membership in community organizations, perception of the increase in temperature and decrease of winter precipitation and receiving remittance (table 2). the dependable variable (pracadopt) is the adoption of supplemental irrigation practice by each household (a binary variable). the explanatory variables are related to socio-economic, demographic, institutional, and climate change perceptions. pracadopt = β0 + β1 gender + β2 experi + β3 education + β4 landhold + β5communorg + β6 location + β7 distance + β8 tinsummer + β9 precdec + β10 remit + εἱ β0 ... β10 are the parameters to be estimated, εἱ is the error term. table 2 presents the definition of variables used in this analysis. it shows that over three-fourths of the households are headed by males, on average the household head has 33 years of experience in farming, no. of years of formal education is 3 years, the distance of the household is 5.87 km from the motorable roads, and a farming household is having about 17 ropania of operational landholding. furthermore, 41% of the households have received membership in a community organization, 33% of the households are located in terai, and 27% of households receive remittances. in terms of climate change perception, 86% of the households have perceived increasing summer temperatures while 77% of the households perceived decreasing winter precipitation. only 26.7% of the households have used supplemental irrigation practices as a coping strategy/adaptation to climate change. 3. results and discussion 3.1 descriptive analysis this section summarizes the percentage distribution of households under different categories of perceptions on changes in temperature and rainfall, facing droughts and the level of its impact over the last 25 years period, and adoption of supplemental irrigation practices. such information is analyzed and described below: 3.1.1 perceptions on climatic factors it is revealed that around 50% of households have heard about climate change [22]. households reported a significant change in summer and winter temperatures over the period of the last 25 years. the households’ perception regarding the summer temperature shows that over three-fourths of the households perceived increasing temperature. this is the highest in dhankuta district while lowest in taplejung district. on the other hand, the majority of the households in taplejung and panchthar perceived no change in winter temperature while households in the other three districts perceived decreasing winter temperature (table 3). table 2. definition and summary statistics of variables. definition of variables mean standard deviation gendergender of the household head (1 for male and 0 otherwise) 0.78 0.41 experino. of years of experience in farming 33.25 18.82 education-no. of years of schooling of household head 3.00 3.94 landhold-operated landholding (ropani) 16.87 19.72 communorgmembership in community organization (1 for memebership, and 0 otherwise) 0.41 0.51 locationecological region (1 for the district in terai, and 0 otherwise) 0.33 0.47 distancedistance to motorable roads (km) tinsummerperception about the increase in summer temperature (1 for increase, and 0 otherwise) 5.87 0.86 9.85 0.35 recdecperception about the decrease in winter precipitation (1 for decrease, and 0 otherwise) remit-household receiving remittance (1 for receiving household, and 0 otherwise) 0.77 0.27 0.42 0.44 source: authors’ estimation. a a 1 ropani equals 508.74 square meter 54 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 in case of changes in the monsoon and winter rainfall, households reported significant changes over the last 25 years. most of the households in all districts (except taplejung) perceived that monsoon is decreasing while there is a mixed perception among the households in taplejung. over two-thirds of the households in taplejung perceived no change in winter rainfall while over 97% of households perceived decreasing winter rainfall in other districts (except panchthar). in panchthar, 57.5% of the households felt decreasing monsoon rainfall while 40.8% felt no change in winter rainfall (table 4). 3.1.2 drought occurrence and impacts a significant number of households have been facing drought in the last 25 years. over one-third of the households in taplejung, all households in dhankuta, and about 96-97% in other districts were experiencing drought (table 5). among the climate-induced disasters, most of the households incurred losses from drought in the last five years [19]. the distribution of households on the extent of drought in the last 25 years is given in table 6. it is observed that extremely low response for drought was the highest in morang district whereas extremely high response was in panchthar district. in other districts, the majority of the response was from moderate to high. 3.1.3 application of supplemental irrigation practices the households have used different supplemental irrigation practices as one of the coping strategies for climate change adaptation (table 7). overall, it is revealed that only about 27% of households have adopted this practice. among the districts, the household adoption is the highest in dhankuta (47.5%) followed by taplejung (31.1%), morang (24.2%), and panchthar (15.8%). this is the lowest in khotang (8.3%). 3.2 factors influencing adoption of supplemental irrigation the factors affecting the adoption of supplementation irrigation practices as a coping strategy for climate change are analyzed by using the probit model. the result of the analysis is presented in table 8. the likelihood ratio chi-square value was 126.10 indicating that the model fits very well with the data, that is, the probability of the null table 3. perception of changes in temperature in the last 25 years period (% of households). districts summer temperature winter temperature increased decreased no change increased decreased no change taplejung 76.7 1.1 22.2 9.4 32.8 57.8 panchthar 87.5 0.8 11.7 25.8 20.8 53.3 morang 88.8 3.8 7.3 31.2 57.7 11.2 dhankuta 92.5 0.0 7.5 27.5 55.0 17.5 khotang 87.5 5.8 6.7 20.8 70.0 9.2 table 4. perception of changes in rainfall in the last 25 years period (% of households). monsoon rain winter rain districts increased decreased no change increased decreased no change taplejung 31.1 38.3 30.6 1.1 32.2 66.7 panchthar 5.0 78.3 16.7 1.7 57.5 40.8 morang 1.9 95.8 2.3 0.8 96.5 2.7 dhankuta 0.80 97.50 1.7 0.00 98.30 1.7 khotang 11.7 85.8 2.5 0.8 97.5 1.7 table 5. households facing drought in the last 25 years period. districts no. of households percentage taplejung (n = 180) 62 34.4 panchthar (n = 120) 116 96.7 morang (n = 260) 251 96.7 dhankuta (n = 120) 120 100 khotang (n = 120) 115 95.8 55 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 hypothesis which states that the coefficients are equal to zero being correct is extremely low. out of ten variables estimated, 7 variables were statistically significant in explaining the adoption of supplemental irrigation. most of the variables analyzed had the expected hypothesized signs. the results indicate that farmers’ decisions to adopt climate change adaptation practices like supplemental irrigation are determined by some factors. it shows that farming experience, education, operational landholding size, and location were significant at a 1% significance level while the distance to motorable roads and membership in community-based organizations were significant at a 5% level. on the other hand, the perception of summer temperature increase was significant at the 10% level. other variables such as gender, perception of the change in winter rainfall, and remittance were positive but not significant. several years of experience in farming have a positive effect on the adoption of practices as the household head’s average experience is over 33 years. they are believed to have added skills and technical knowledge over time and therefore have a better position to adopt such practices. this is in harmony with the findings of the previous studies [26-28]. for a unit increase in farming experience, the likelihood of adoption of supplemental irrigation practices would increase by 0.74 percent. education is explained as the number of years spent in formal schooling positively influencing the adoption of supplemental irrigation. in this case, the average year of formal schooling is 3 years and over 25% of household heads are having 5 years and above of education. it can be said that as farmers spend more years in formal schooling, their understanding of the gains from the adoption of coping strategies like supplemental irrigation for climate adaptation enhances. in addition, more educated farmers have better access to information, respond to expected changes, and have the capacity to forecast future scenarios than uneducated or less educated ones. for a unit increase in education, the likelihood of adoption of supplemental irrigation practices would rise by 1.54 percent. this is consistent with the previous findings [29,30]. the size of the operational landholding significantly and positively affected the adoption decision as the household’s average operation landholding is about 17 ropani. with one unit increase in the size of land holding, the likelihood of adoption of climate change adaptation practices would increase by 0.36%. this implies that the bigger the size of operational landholding, the higher the probability of adopting supplemental irrigation for adapting to climate change. adopting supplemental irrigation practices such as constructing different types of ponds and application of water needs financial resources for procuring materials that are affordable to bigger farmers than the smaller ones. the probability of adopting supplemental irrigation practice is higher for those households that have membership in community-based organizations (cbo) than the non-members. in this case, 41% of households have membership in cbos and are involved in social learning. through their participation, they learn more by sharing their experience and knowledge, also they may have the opportunity to observe the practices adopted by other members, which enhances their confidence. in addition, the farmers have the chance to see the adaptation options of other cbo members, which may improve their trust in adaptation strategies and increase adoption rates which is consistent with the findings of previous researchers [31,32]. the adoption would be higher by 8.46% for cbo members than the non-members. table 6. the level of impact of drought in the last 25 years (%). districts extremely low low moderate high extremely high taplejung 7.5 20.8 33.3 23.3 15 panchthar 7.5 20.8 33.3 23.3 15.0 morang 38.1 23.2 25.2 13.3 0.2 dhankuta 0.0 0.0 60.0 40.0 0.0 khotang 3.3 11.7 47.5 34.2 3.3 table 7. households adopting supplemental irrigation practices. districts no. of households percentage taplejung 56 31.1 panchthar 19 15.8 morang 63 24.2 dhankuta 57 47.5 khotang 10 8.3 56 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 the location of the household (ecological dummy) is also positive and significant which implies that the probability of adoption to households located in the tarai (plain area) is higher (19.49%) than the households located in other ecological regions. this is because the farmers in tarai have better physical access, access to information and communication, and technologies. on the other hand, the significant and positive coefficient of the distance of household to market suggests that the likelihood of adoption of supplemental irrigation practices would be higher for those households that are at a distance from the road heads than those near road heads. this is contrary to the findings of a previous study [33]. usually, the households residing near road heads may have access to information and materials required for irrigation than the households in interior parts. however, there could be variations in the quality and nature of roads (fair-weather, graveled, and blacktopped) in nepal, especially in the rural areas that may have some effect on adoption. the dummy variable for households who have perceived increasing summer temperature (86% in this case) enhances the probability of adoption. this may be true because the households might have perceived the threat of increasing temperature with the anticipation of droughts and dry spells and adopting supplemental irrigation as a response to mitigate the likely effects. which is consistent with previous findings [34,35]. table 8. probit regression estimates. variables coefficient marginal effects1 gender 0.1806 0.0533 experi 0.0242*** 0.0074 education 0.0502*** 0.0154 landhold 0.0119*** 0.0036 communorg 0.2710** 0.0846 location 0.5986*** 0.1949 distance tinsummer precdec remit constant 0.0128** 0.3025* 0.1308 0.1493 –2.8038*** 0.0039 0.0852 0.0390 0.0469 no. of observations = 800 log likelihood = –400.5449 lr chi2 (10) = 126.10, prob > chi2 = 0.0000 pseudo r2 = 0.1360, predicted value of y = 0.2344 1 marginal effects refer to the partial derivatives of the expected value with respect to the vector of characteristics. 4. conclusions and policy implications this paper has analyzed the perceptions on climate change and identified the factors influencing the adoption of supplemental irrigation practice as an adaptation strategy among households. in the study province, the average level of pre-monsoon precipitation is higher while the winter precipitation is lower than in other provinces. there is a spatial and temporal variation in precipitation and temperature changes across the province. compared with the reference period, the precipitation would increase for all districts. however, it will be higher for the hills and mountains than in terai. the temperature is projected to increase in the future. in addition, the number of rainy days will decrease while warm days will increase. there was a variation in households’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall. most of the households perceived increasing summer temperature while there is no such response in the case of winter temperature. it either decreased or remained constant. the household perceived decreasing levels of both monsoon and winter rainfall. as the households have perceived these changes, they have also been affected by weather-related risks such as drought although its impact is not uniform across districts. the households have used different supplemental irrigation practices as one of the coping strategies for climate change. however, only about one-fourth of the households are adopting this practice and a wide variation was observed across districts. the adoption of supplemental irrigation practice is influenced by socio-economic, demographic, institutional, and climate-related variables. the agricultural sector in nepal would be affected immensely due to increasing temperatures, and erratic time and intensity of rainfall which may result in dry spells and droughts in the future. in this context, proper consideration needs to be given to such variables that are influential in making adoption decisions by the households while formulating policy. the policy and strategy should focus on enhancing the capacity of farmers through organizing different types of technical and managerial training on supplemental irrigation practices and their appropriateness to mitigate the impact of climate change. it is equally important to raise awareness about climate change and its impact on the agricultural sector through different media and campaigns, workshops, and publications. the significant effect of membership in community-based organizations implies strengthening such social networks to make them effective for sharing and exchanging knowledge and skills. currently, the adoption level of supplemental irrigation practices is quite low in the province. in this regard, it is necessary to further carry out research and studies on the sustainable complementary practices for diverse commodities and ecosystems considering social, economic, and technical perspectives and devising support measures for different tiers of governments and private sectors for 57 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 scaling up. as this practice also involves some financial investment, creating additional on-farm and off-farm income-generating opportunities is essential to mitigate the capital constraint, and improve physical access which demands further investment increment. author contributions this work was carried out in collaboration between both authors. both authors read and approved the final manuscript. acknowledgments the authors are grateful to the alexander von humboldt foundation for granting renewed research stay of the first author at the institute for technology and resources management in the tropics and subtropics (itt), university of applied sciences cologne, germany. the authors would like to acknowledge the financial support from the german federal ministry of education and research through its project management agency jülich under the framework of reto-dosso project. the authors also would like to thank nepal’s central bureau of statistics for availing datasets. conflict of interest the authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. references [1] agriculture development strategy (ads) [internet]. ministry of agricultural development, government of nepal. available from: https://www.gafspfund.org/ sites/default/files/inline-files/6%20and%207a.%20 nepal_%20ag%20and%20food%20security%20 strategy%20and%20investment%20plan.pdf [2] economic survey 2021/22 [internet]. ministry of finance, government of nepal. available from: https:// www.mof.gov.np/uploads/document/file/1674635120_ economic_survey_2022.pdf 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[18] nepal, s., 2016. impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime of the koshi river basin in the himalayan region. journal of hydro-environment research. 10, 76-89. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jher.2015.12.001 [19] shrestha, s., bajracharya, a.r., babel, m.s., 2016. assessment of risks due to climate change for the upper tamakoshi hydropower project in nepal. climate risk management. 14, 27-41. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.08.002 [20] agarwal, a., babel, m.s., maskey, s., et al., 2016. analysis of temperature projections in the koshi river basin, nepal. journal of hydrology. 36, 266-279. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.03.047 [21] national adaptation plan [internet]. government of nepal. available from: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/ files/resource/nap_nepal.pdf [22] national climate change impact survey 2016: a statistical report [internet]. central bureau of statistics, government of nepal; 2017. available from: https://climate.mohp.gov.np/downloads/national_ climate_change_impact_survey_report_2016.pdf [23] adesina, a.a., zinnah, m.m., 1993. technology characteristics, farmers’ perceptions and adoption decisions: a tobit model application in sierra leone. agricultural economics. 9(4), 297-311. 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[28] micro-level analysis of farmers’ adaptation to climate change in southern africa. international food policy research institute; 2007. discussion paper 00714. available from: https://www.ifpri.org/publication/micro-level-analysis-farmers%e2%80%99-adaptation-climate-change-southern-africa [29] joshi, b., ji, w., joshi, n.b., 2017. farm households’ perception on climate change and adaptation practices: a case from mountain district of nepal. international journal of climate change strategies and management. 9(4). doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-07-2016-0099 [30] juana, j.s., kahaka, z., okurut, f.n., 2013. farmers’ perceptions and adaptations to climate change in sub-sahara africa: a synthesis of empirical studies and implications for public policy in african agriculture. journal of agricultural science. 5(4), 121-135. [31] katungi, e., akankwasa, k., 2010. community-based organizations and their effect on adoption of agricultural technologies in uganda: a study of banana pest management technology. acta horticulturae. 879, 719-726. [32] faruk, m.o., maharjan, k.l., 2022. impact of farmers’ participation in community-based organizations on adoption of flood adaptation strategies: a case study in a char-land area of sirajganj district bangladesh. sustainability. 14, 8959. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14148959 [33] destau, f., fenta, m., 2021. climate change adaptation strategies and their predictors amongst rural farmers in ambassel district, northern ethiopia. jàmbá: journal of disaster risk studies. 13(1), 974. doi: https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v13i1.974 [34] apata, t.g., folayan, a., apata, o.m., et al., 2011. the economic role of nigeria’s subsistence agriculture in the transition process: implications for rural development. 85th annual conference of the agricultural economics society; 2011 apr 18-20; warwick university, u.k. [35] deressa, t.t., hassan, r.m., ringler, c., et al., 2009. determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the nile basin of ethiopia. global environmental change. 19, 248-255. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/nap_nepal.pdf https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/nap_nepal.pdf https://climate.mohp.gov.np/downloads/national_climate_change_impact_survey_report_2016.pdf https://climate.mohp.gov.np/downloads/national_climate_change_impact_survey_report_2016.pdf https://econpapers.repec.org/article/blaagecon/ https://doi.org/10.3390/w10060706 https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v13i1.974 1 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: olena shubravska, department of the forms and methods of management in the agri-food complex, institute for economics and forecasting of the nas of ukraine, kyiv, 01011, ukraine; email: shubravska@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.693 received: 31 august 2022; received in revised form: 4 october 2022; accepted: 25 october 2022; published: 16 november 2022 citation: shubravska, o., prokopenko, k., 2022. the agricultural sector of ukraine in the global food market: pre-war state and post-war prospects. research on world agricultural economy. 3(4), 693. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae. v3i4.693 research article the agricultural sector of ukraine in the global food market: pre-war state and post-war prospects olena shubravska* kateryna prokopenko department of the forms and methods of management in the agri-food complex, institute for economics and forecasting of the nas of ukraine, kyiv, 01011, ukraine abstract: for a long time, ukraine played an essential role as a producer of agricultural products in ensuring global and internal food security. the hostilities on the territory of ukraine have caused significant risks to the activity of its agricultural sector and affected its current export potential. this study set out to assess the importance of ukraine for world food security and its place in the global agricultural market, to outline current risks and to determine the prospects for the further development of agriculture in the conditions of post-war recovery. in particular, the integration of the agricultural sector into the global economic space was investigated, which showed the rapid expansion of the presence of agri-food products in certain commodity markets of some countries. an increase in the level of involvement of the agricultural sector in the global flows of goods related to food production has been established. this conclusion is based on calculations made using the data of input-output tables at basic prices. it is substantiated that the post-war recovery of ukraine’s economy should ensure the reconstruction of the agricultural sector on the basis of sustainability. in this context, the authors presented the results of the assessment of possible changes in the production of the main types of agricultural products during the implementation of the concept of ecological resource-conserving agriculture. the impact of these changes on the country’s export potential and its food security was assessed by developing food balances for the main types of agricultural products. the conducted assessment that confirmed the necessity of such restructuring to ensure the preservation of the country’s agricultural potential in the long term. keywords: agricultural sector; agri-food export; food security; sustainable development http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.693 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.693 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2109-9308 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1456-4432 2 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 1. introduction world trade in agricultural and food products is carried out in order to provide the inhabitants of the planet with a sufficient amount of diverse food. food supply to the population is a strategic priority of the governments of all countries in the world without exception. this problem is especially acute in poor countries, which, moreover, are not able to fully saturate their food market through domestic agricultural production. for such countries, the global food supply is essential to avoid hunger and diseases associated with malnutrition, thereby also providing social stability [1]. according to food and agriculture organization (fao), the number of people in the world affected by hunger continued to increase in 2020 and amounted between 720 to 811 million people. of the total number of undernourished people, more than half live in asia and more than one-third in africa [2]. many of these countries have recently been significant importers of ukrainian agri-food products. according to our estimates based on data from the state statistics service of ukraine these deliveries to asia and africa in 2021 amounted to 49% and 13%, respectively, of the total volume of ukrainian agri-food exports. in general, ukraine supplied more than 14% of the global food market [3], including 12.5% of the world export of wheat and 12.8% of corn, as well as 47% of the world trade in sunflower oil and 54% of sunflower meal [4]. according to usda estimates, in the last pre-war year, ukraine was the fourth largest exporter of corn in the world after the usa, brazil and argentina. as of the end of 2021, ukraine was the fourth supplier of food to the eu (with the volume of supplies of 6,896 million euros in 2021). according to estimates of the kyiv school of economics, more than 400 million people in the world depend on ukrainian grain supplies [5]. the war started by russia in ukraine radically changed the situation. increasing military conflicts in developing countries have long been recognized by the fao as one of the main factors contributing to food insecurity in these countries. research has shown that there is strong evidence for a link between food security and violent conflict [6]. at the same time, it is obvious that in a situation of a full-scale military confrontation between countries that are among the largest global suppliers of grains and oilseeds (which are ukraine and the russian federation), a food crisis can affect a much larger part of the world’s population. the problems with export logistics, reduction of cultivated areas, and the probable decrease in the yield of agricultural crops, caused by the war in ukraine have already significantly affected the current state of global food security. thus, the world is witnessing an increase in prices for many products and their shortages, especially felt in the middle east and north africa. this has already forced many of them to close agricultural exports in order to maintain their own food security [7]. the long-term high agrarian status of ukraine became one of the important factors in mitigating the consequences of military actions for the domestic food supply during the war. at the same time, the destruction caused by the war in the field of production and sale of agri-food products can create prerequisites for the further recovery and development of the ukrainian agrarian sector on the basis of sustainability and structural balance of production and export. the post-war recovery of the agricultural sector of ukraine should form the basis for its further long-term development. that is why it is extremely important to choose the priorities of such development and directions of their implementation. the fundamental goals should be to ensure national food security, as well as the reproduction and preservation of natural resources of agricultural production. to achieve this, innovative modernization of the agricultural sector and its structural transformation are needed. as a result, there should be a gradual transition from a highly specialized mono-product structure of agri-food production and export to a structure of agricultural production that is more effective in view of national economic interests. considering all the above, the purpose of the article is to reveal the role of the agricultural sector of ukraine as a guarantor of world food security in the pre-war period, to identify risks of the impact of military operations on the ukrainian agricultural sector, and to outline the prospects for post-war agricultural production and exports of ukraine, taking into account the need to comply with the principles of sustainable development. 2. research methods and materials the authors sought to analyze the changes that have occurred in ukrainian agrarian production and exports over the past 18 years (2004-2021). calculations are based on the data from the state statistics service of ukraine. the time series of export covering the period of 20042021 is analyzed from the point of view of the commodity structure. commodity structure is based on the ukrainian classification of goods of foreign economic activity (ucgfea), whereas we have considered the correspondence between the ucgfea positions and positions of the combined nomenclature, designed for the eu statisticians, using eight-digit coding system. the combined nomenclature is the primary nomenclature as it is used by the eu member states to collect detailed data concerning their trade. it is based on the harmonized commodity description and coding system (managed by the world 3 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 customs organization). the volume of ukrainian agrarian foreign trade flows is estimated in us dollars. the scope of research includes estimation of affect both trade and production of increasing international fragmentation of production that has occurred over the last decades. the time series of ukraine input-output tables provide a comprehensive map of transactions of goods and services for estimation. the volume of this flow is estimated in ukrainian hryvnia. authors also used balance method for development of model for assessing the possible volumes of export of agricultural products with strict adherence to the principles of sustainability in the further development. during the development of this model relevant international experience in food balances preparation was taken into account, specifically materials and recommendations developed by fao, usda and eurostat [8-12]. as a result, the following general scheme of forecast balances preparation, coherent with international fao recommendations, was adopted: demand = supply supply = stock at the beginning of the period + production + import demand = domestic consumption (human consumption + seeds +livestock and poultry feed + industrial use + losses + other consumption) + export + stock at the end of the period 3. results and discussion 3.1 the dynamics of foreign agri-food trade of ukraine in the pre-war period the agrarian sector of ukraine in the pre-war period rapidly integrated into the global economic space, and even more actively than the ukrainian economy as a whole. this process especially intensified at the beginning of this millennium, after the industry overcame the economic crisis of the mid-90s of the twentieth century and during the country’s preparations for accession to the wto (2005-2008). it was during this period that ukraine laid the foundations for its current high status in the global food market and formed an agrarian export hyper-specialization [13]. so, only 6 commodity items, namely corn, wheat, barley, rape, sunflower oil and sunflower meal provided almost a third of the national and more than 70% of ukraine’s agri-food exports in the last pre-war years. the high values of rca (revealed comparative advantage index), or otherwise the balassa index, for these products (at the level of almost 300 units for sunflower processing products and up to 80 units for grain crops) indicate that these products have strong comparative advantages, which also reflects its high share in the world market (respectively 42%~48% and 8%~13%). in the pre-war period, ukrainian agri-food products from year to year expanded their presence both in the eu market and the markets of asian and african countries (table 1). this was largely facilitated by the gradual harmonization of the national legislation of ukraine in the field of ensuring the quality of food products with the relevant european regulations. the result was a noticeable increase in the quality indicators of products, the introduction of modern production standards at all stages. in recent years, the importance of india, egypt, china, as well as other countries as importers of ukrainian products has significantly increased. for example, china for 2011-2021 increased the import of agricultural products from ukraine by 41.5 times, which increased the share of this country in the structure of ukrainian agri-food exports from 0.5% to 15.5%. in turn, india was the largest importer of ukrainian sunflower oil. however, despite the high position of the ukrainian agricultural sector in the global space, it is quite obvious that agricultural raw material exports should not dominate in the overall structure of export deliveries due to the high volatility of the conjuncture of the respective markets. therefore, ukraine is faced with the task of increasing the share of food products with a higher added value in agrifood exports. in the meantime, as statistics show, raw material exports continue to dominate. the share of processed products in both exports and imports is declining. the information below on the commodity structure of agricultural trade in ukraine in 2004-2021 confirms the growth of negative changes in the area of value added (table 2). thus, the share of trade in unprocessed commodities has been constantly increasing due to a decrease in the share of processed products (currently down to 40%). consequently, ukrainian agricultural exports are becoming more and more raw materials, which requires a revision of the country’s agri-food trade policy. the high level of integration of the agricultural business of ukraine into the global economic space is also confirmed by the increase in the indicators of its involvement in gvc – global value chains. this, in particular, is evidenced by both the dynamic growth of the index of participation of agriculture and the food industry of ukraine in global value chains (gvc participation rate), and the decrease in the indicator of domestic value added (dva) in these areas [14]. estimates by international experts show that for the period they studied 1995-2015 against the background of the expansion of the presence of agriculture in gvc, its dependence on imported inter4 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 mediate inputs has significantly increased. at the same time, since 2013 the trend has changed. this was the result of a significant increase in gross agricultural and food exports, as well as a decrease (albeit insignificant) in the import component in the export of these goods. our estimates for a later period using the input-output tables confirm the persistence of this trend (table 3). imports of goods and services matrix allows us to determine the directions of use of imported products in the total amount of goods and services used in the economy. according to input-output tables, in 2020 the share of the import component in the intermediate consumption of agriculture was 25.5%. this can be considered as an approximate level of use of imported resources in general production, including in the production of exported goods. consequently, the dependence of ukrainian agriculture on external resources is somewhat higher than in the economy as a whole, and significantly higher compared to manufacture of food products, since the products of ukrainian agriculture are its main resource component. at the same time, this dependence tended to decrease, despite the fact that at the input (resource component) agrarian sector is less involved in gvc than the output (ukrainian exports). so, table 4 shows the level of involvement of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of ukraine in the gvc, based on the indicators of input-output tables. it is diftable 1. dynamics of ukraine’s foreign agri-food trade with the main importing countries (usd million) countries 2011 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 2021 eu countries netherlands 513.6 690.2 749.9 575.6 1275.7 1157.6 1762.1 spain 724.1 759.0 923.0 852.9 1023.8 1039.8 1168.4 poland 445.8 528.7 536.2 422.7 518.2 557.2 981.5 germany 151.1 222.5 247.9 188.3 385.0 657.5 842.3 italy 418.1 598.4 625.4 560.0 749.3 702.7 717.9 other countries china 103.1 484.0 764.9 1239.6 1015.3 1171.0 4282.3 india 944.9 1079.4 1390.9 1082.6 1953.4 1856.1 1953.7 egypt 862.2 1524.3 1390.9 1022.9 1257.9 888.7 1600.5 turkey 883.6 688.3 665.6 757.6 928.9 800.2 1464.0 saudi arabia 551.7 427.8 629.1 473.3 358.8 588.7 645.8 iran 403.4 526.1 591.2 440.6 527.6 420.8 612.5 israel 268.4 443.5 377.6 395.2 411.2 337.0 449.6 russian federation 2025.0 1941.1 911.8 276.5 102.3 92.2 45.9 source: calculated using the data from the state statistics service of ukraine. table 2. structure of foreign agri-food trade of ukraine in relation to the processed and unprocessed goods (usd million) indicators 2004 2008 2014 2016 2018 2021 index 2021vs.2004, % exports non-processed total (ucgfea items 1-14) 1784.4 6373.7 9750.6 8868.7 11097.4 16883.2 946.2 processed total (ucgfea items 15-24) 1686.5 4463.9 6918.3 6413.1 7515.3 10825.7 641.9 total 3470.9 10837.6 16668.9 15281.8 18612.8 27708.9 798.3 share of non-processed (%) 51.4 58.8 58.5 58.0 59.6 60.9 118.5 share of processed (%) 48.6 41.2 41.5 42.0 40.4 39.1 80.5 imports non-processed total (ucgfea items 1-14) 754.4 3164.5 3155.8 1911.1 2446.9 3724.5 493.7 processed total (ucgfea items 15-24) 1154.0 3292.1 2903.5 1980.0 2604.8 4022.4 348.6 total 1908.4 6456.6 6059.3 3891.1 5051.7 7747.0 405.9 share of non-processed (%) 39.5 49.0 52.1 49.1 48.4 48.1 121.8 share of processed (%) 60.5 51.0 47.9 50.9 51.6 51.9 85.8 source: calculated using the data from the state statistics service of ukraine. 5 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 ficult to single out the export flows that will be included in global value chain, but the table contains data on the export of products of section a (agriculture, forestry and fishing), which are essentially raw materials and require further processing, and therefore the exported volumes of these products with a high probability will be directed to further processing and may become a component of gvc. in this case, we estimated gvc participation rate as the share of added value that came from products involved in gvc. thus, as we can see, the agriculture of ukraine in the pre-war period was quite deeply involved in the global value chain. in addition, during the research we assessed the degree to which the country relies on imported inputs in the production of some exported commodities (in particular cereals). we measured it as the share of value of imported inputs in total exports. the evaluation was carried out according to the author’s methodology for wheat and corn. thus, the following imported resources were evaluated: machinery, plant protection products, mineral fertilizers, seed material. export volumes included both grain itself and products of wheat and corn processing (flour, cereals, starch, ready-made dough products, etc.). since these goods (cereals) are mainly export-oriented, the share of import of production resources in the value of the specified export was insignificant and in 2019-2020 was 16.4%. 3.2 the impact of hostilities on the agricultural sector of ukraine the war in ukraine affected all areas of the country’s socio-economic life. losses, unfortunately, are already catastrophically great. in this regard, fao speaks of the unprecedented scale of damage to ukrainian agriculture, which will have an impact not only on the ukrainian economy, but also on global food security. “damage caused by war to a country with an agricultural output and exports as significant as that of ukraine is unparalleled since the second world war” [16]. according to the estimates of the kse institute center for food and land use research and the ministry of agrarian policy and food of ukraine, in just three months of russia’s war against ukraine, direct losses (full or partial destruction of material assets) in the agricultural sector alone reached almost 4.3 usd billion [17], and indirect (due to a decrease in production, the blockade of ports and the increase in the cost of production factors) – 23.3 usd billion [18]. forestry of table 3. dependence on foreign input (at basic prices, million ukraine hryvnia (uah)) indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 total by types of economic activity use of imported goods and services 705090 827161 994369 1136089 1076165 972899 intermediate consumption (without taxes and subsidies on products) 2444526 2985429 3680226 4404755 4866204 4981105 dependence on foreign input rate 0.2884 0.2771 0.2702 0.2579 0.2212 0.1953 agriculture, forestry and fishing use of imported goods and services 95360 126017 142505 144397 150449 129059 intermediate consumption (without taxes and subsidies on products) 309222 366186 412767 497649 494916 506638 dependence on foreign input rate 0.3084 0.3441 0.3452 0.2902 0.3040 0.2547 manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco products use of imported goods and services 68152 92359 106439 115109 100018 94700 intermediate consumption (without taxes and subsidies on products) 329094 400922 475163 498663 539547 601359 dependence on foreign input rate 0.2071 0.25304 0.2240 0.2308 0.1854 0.1575 source: calculated according to olena shubravska, 2021 [13]. table 4. global value chain participation rate for agriculture, forestry and fishing (at basic prices, million ukraine hryvnia (uah)) indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 use of goods and services for export 178390 208977 244472 267614 329968 315305 output 558788 655569 727352 871971 866138 915800 gvc participation rate 0.319 0.319 0.336 0.307 0.381 0.344 source: calculated according to state statistics service of ukraine, 2015-2020 [15]. 6 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 ukraine also suffered colossal losses. so, about 600,000 hectares of forest-covered land has already been affected by the war. landmines have become an extremely serious problem, especially when fighting forest fires. according to the state agency of forest resources of ukraine, the damage caused to forest ecosystem services is estimated at 185 usd million. the war in ukraine also led to the loss of food stocks available in the country before the war due to their physical destruction by the invaders and the placement of a significant number of warehouses in the currently occupied territories; lack of physical ability to conduct agricultural activities in many key agricultural regions of ukraine (in july 2022 18% cropland were currently occupied, 5% were previously occupied, 3% were just liberated); critically insufficient level of provision of fuel and lubricants to farmers; the destruction of the supply chains of agricultural production resources (plant protection products, seeds, and fertilizers), which negatively affects the resource security of all production processes and causes crop failure (ministry of agriculture of ukraine expects in 2022 a decrease in grain yield by 10%~15% compared to the past year); the increase in the cost of agricultural work against the background of a sharp reduction in exports and the impossibility of replenishing the financial resources of agricultural producers because of this. in ukraine, there is currently a catastrophic violation of export logistics. namely before 24 february the maximum throughput of export facilities was 6 mln·t per month (95% by sea, 5% other), in june 2022 it was 2 mln·t per month (15% by trucks, 35% by railway, 50% by river) [19]. taking into account all of the above, according to our estimates, in 2022, the production of grain crops in ukraine may decrease by 30 mln·t~33 mln·t compared to the previous year, when a record harvest of more than 85 mln·t was harvested. international experts estimate the reduction of grain production in ukraine in the current year in the amount of 35 mln·t [20]. a decrease in the production of sunflower seeds is expected at the level of 6 mln·t, which will cause a corresponding drop in the production of sunflower oil, the export of which ukraine has ranked first in the world for many years in a row. according to the profile association “ukroliyaprom”, in 2022, the export of oil has already decreased by 8 times compared to 2021, and the export of sunflower meal – by 12 times. in august report, the usda noted that the volumes of ukrainian wheat production and export in 2022/2023 will decrease compared to the previous period by 13.5 mln·t and 7.8 mln·t, respectively. the production of corn is forecast to be 12.1 mln·t, and exports –12 mln·t less [21]. 3.3 prospects of the ukrainian agricultural sector post-war development in general, the further situation in the field of agricultural production in ukraine seems to be poorly predictable. taking into account the problems of the war period noted above, many agrarians may for some time completely abandon their economic activity or radically restructure it. the choice of large producers, who before the war narrowly specialized in the production of grains and oilseeds, will be determined by comparing their own financial and other resource capabilities, as well as the scale of the costs of the autumn sowing and the risks of its implementation with the problems of marketing the grown crop and the profit that is poorly predicted as a result of all this. it is expected that these producers will give preference to crops that bring more income per 1 ha with a smaller mass of grown crop. thus, it is already known that this spring many agrarians sowed fields with sunflower instead of corn, which they planned to sow before the war. it is assumed that in the future, sunflower and rapeseed, which are in demand on the european market, can significantly replace corn and wheat crops in ukraine. in addition, already now many large grain producers are concerned about finding effective solutions in the field of processing. the main guidelines are the construction of bioenergy enterprises for the production of bioethanol and biomethane, increasing the production of compound feed, starch, including highly demanded modified, sugar alcohols (sorbitol, xylitol, etc.), the most important organic components of animal feed amino acids (lysine, methionine, threonine, tryptophan), etc. small ukrainian agrarians, who traditionally have a more diversified production structure and are oriented mainly to the domestic market, demonstrate relatively greater stability during the war (as, indeed, in other periods of crisis). it is on them that the national food security of ukraine largely depends, regarding such products as milk, vegetables, local fruits – almost completely. however, the entry of such producers into the global food market in the near future seems problematic due to their generally unsatisfactory logistical support and insufficient coordination of actions, which is necessary for the formation of market lots of quality products. the only exception in this context is ukrainian organic producers, who have been successfully presenting their products on the world market for a long time, mainly in european countries. thus, it is obvious that under the influence of the war with russian federation, agricultural production in ukraine may reduce and, moreover, undergoes significant transformations that may persist in the years following the end of the war. this will undoubtedly affect the export op7 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 portunities of ukrainian farmers, who, at least in the short term, may lose their status as key players in the global market in the segment of grain crops that were traditional for ukraine until recently. at the same time, mechanical damage and chemical contamination of large areas of land and water resources provoked by military actions as a result of explosions, mining of the territory and man-made disasters, as well as changes in the structure of production in the direction of the priority development of agricultural crops that deplete land resources (primarily sunflower) are fraught with production in ukraine with long-term negative consequences. this is especially dangerous, taking into account the unfavorable ecological situation in the sphere of agricultural production in ukraine even before the war against the backdrop of the growing influence of climate change on it. ukraine has the second largest arable land resource in europe. however, there is a steady trend of further intensive degradation of soils – the main means of agricultural production [22]. the largest risks identified as erosion (38% of agricultural land), soil compaction and loss of humus, exacerbated by a high plowing rate (78% of soils and 56% of land). more than 19% of soils are acidic. the balance of nutrients in the soil, like humus, is negative. in addition, many soils are contaminated. total forest area of ukraine (10.4 mln·ha) is much smaller than in eu: forest cover rate is 14%~16% in ukraine and 39% in eu average. as a result of the military operations, the problem of restoration and preservation of natural resources of agricultural production has significantly increased, since on a significant part of the land, its solution must be preceded by bringing the land into a state suitable for agricultural use (demining, elimination of numerous man-made pollutions, etc.). so, during the period of post-war reconstruction, ukraine has no alternative to the development of agricultural production on the principles of sustainability. this approach is also due to the intensification of european integration processes after ukraine received the status of a candidate member of the eu on june 23, 2022. thus, issues of sustainable development, a low-carbon strategy, and the european green deal course should be prioritized when ukraine determines the prospects of its agricultural production and forms agrarian policy to achieve them. the realization of this goal involves the implementation of innovative modernization of agricultural production and the formation of its structure based on the priority of internal food needs and resource opportunities for their implementation, and not on the global market situation and the interests of its leading players [23,24]. this approach, in particular, involves optimizing the structure of land and agricultural landscape; decrease in agricultural development (by 5 percent) and plowed territory (by 10 percent); increasing the productivity of agricultural land (by 40-50 percent) through the rational use of organic, organo-mineral and mineral fertilizers and chemical meliorants on acidic and saline soils [25]. in this context, the authors estimated the possible volumes of production and export of agricultural products, which can be obtained by complying with the above requirements of the government document and by the following assumptions: l the post-war territory of ukraine will be restored to its borders as of february 23, 2022; l all land will be demined and available for agricultural activity; l logistics infrastructure, even if it is not completely restored, there will still be opportunities to provide farmers with all the necessary resources and equipment; l the structure of crop production will fundamentally change in accordance with ecological requirements, and the number of livestock of agricultural animals will correspond to the area of available fodder lands. the assessment of changes in the structure of crop production was based on calculations of the optimal structure of sown areas on the basis of crop rotations recommended for different soil and climatic zones of ukraine [26]. in the agricultural sector of ukraine, as mentioned above, there are two significant producers: enterprises and farmers as well as households. the analysis carried out by the authors [27] proved that the households have a relatively optimal structure of sown areas and there is no possibility of introducing full-fledged crop rotations on small plots, so this group of producers can only recommend directions for improving the structure of production in their farms. in 2021, enterprises and farms that produce products for export had a non-optimal structure of sown areas with the dominance of grain and industrial crops. therefore, changes in the structure of production were estimated for such farms. in general, the changes related to compliance with environmental requirements can be very significant, as 3 mln·ha of agricultural land, 6 mln·ha of arable land should be taken out of circulation, and the area of pastures and hayfields should be increased by 2 mln·ha. when making calculations, we assumed that: a) households will not change the structure of crop production and will maintain production volumes; b) producers of livestock products will increase the number of agricultural animals in accordance with the above ecological requirements, without changing the structure. taking into account all the assumptions made, one can expect the results of agricultural production given in table 5. although the 8 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 calculations are quite conditional, they still give an idea of the scale of the main changes that can take place in the structure of agricultural production in ukraine with full compliance with environmental requirements. in accordance with the implementation of structural changes in production, there will also be changes in the country’s export potential. the main method of calculations was the balance sheet method. the balance sheet item of the estimated balance sheet became its “exports” item, in contrast to the fact balance sheets, where the balance sheet item is usually “fund of consumption”. in the evaluation process, in addition to production volumes, domestic consumption volumes were determined and, in particular, such item of the balance of demand and supply for certain types of products were evaluated, as the consumption fund (which may be formed in the post-war period), expenditures on processing and domestic use (sowing, planting, fodder), as well as losses and wastes. since the goal of the structural restructuring of the agricultural sector is to achieve food security (that is, food sufficiency) on the basis of sustainable development, when calculating the consumption fund, it was assumed to ensure consumption norms per person, which were formed in the pre-war period. to estimate the consumption fund, it is currently difficult to predict the population size in the post-war period, since migration processes are still ongoing in ukraine, the scale of which will depend on the activity and duration of hostilities in the country. according to some estimates, depending on the duration of the war, the loss of population will be from 600,000 to 5 million people [28], so for the calculations, losses at the level of 10% were determined. estimates indicate that the production of a number of crops may decrease with structural restructuring in accordance with ecological requirements. in particular, the agricultural sector may lose significantly in the production of corn (up to 35%), wheat (up to 8%) and sunflower (about 45%). this may accordingly reduce the production and export volumes of sunflower oil. soybean and rapeseed production may also decrease. however, these changes are necessary, since the share of cultivated areas under technical crops (primarily sunflower) is now in the range of 35%~50% depending on the region, which is an unacceptable violation of environmental requirements. such a situation allows obtaining only short-term economic profit, and in the long term it leads to land degradation, a decrease in harvests and the loss of export potential and the ability to ensure food security at the global level. insignificant exports of sunflower, soybeans and rapeseed will be due to large volumes of their domestic processing, i.e., mainly products of oil crops processing will be exported. therefore, it can be expected that ukraine will be able to avoid significant losses of export revenues due to the reduction of sowing of grain and technical crops, ensuring the development of appropriate processing capacities. this is fully consistent with the need to speed up the transition from raw materials exports to exports of processed products, declared by the government in the draft ukraine recovery plan [29]. significant amounts of soybeans and sunflowers are already exported in processed form, but in addition to this, in order to increase the value of exports, it is planned to increase the processing capacity of grain crops, soybeans and rapeseed. according to calculations, the changes may also lead to an increase in ukraine’s production of potatoes, which is currently recognized as the third most important food crop in the world. at the same time, potatoes are a strategic crop with regard to the requirements of sustainable and ecological food production, as they generate fewer greenhouse gas emissions compared to other main crops and at table 5. expected export by ukraine in the post-war period of the main types of agricultural products when transitioning to production taking into account environmental requirements (thousand tons) types of products production changes in the volume of production expected domestic consumption expected export 2021 expected grain and legumes 86011 73120 –12891 20575 52545 wheat 32151 29750 –2401 7200 22550 corn 42110 27200 –14910 10700 16500 soya 3493 2610 –329 1300 1310 rapeseed 2939 2260 –679 260 2000 sunflower 16392 9140 –7252 9050 90 potatoes 21356 23920 2564 23750 170 meat 2438 3650 1212 2000 1650 milk 8729 13100 5119 8750 4350 source: authors’ calculations. 9 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 the same time ensure the receipt of cash by small producers. in ukraine, the increase in the volume of this product is predicted due to production in enterprises, so it will be suitable for industrial processing and export. according to the assessment (follow the ecological standards), the total area of fodder lands in ukraine can reach 13.1 million hectares. thus, ukrainian farmers will be able to increase the number of livestock by 1.5 times (up to 13.1 million in standard livestock unit) if they comply with the requirement of a 1:1 livestock load on fodder grounds. this will not only give a notable impetus to the development of animal husbandry, but will also allow to significantly activate the process of applying organic fertilizers to improve the condition of the soil. in addition, according to the calculations, increasing the production of livestock products, along with ensuring its domestic consumption, will also increase export. the ukrainian agricultural sector also has a significant potential for the development of organic production, as a system of agricultural production that fully complies with all principles of sustainable development, contributes to the restoration of the natural balance and ensures the sustainability of the food system. the ukrainian national economic strategy for the period until 2030 envisages an increase in the area of land with organic status to at least 3% of the total area of agricultural land against the current slightly more than 1%. 4. conclusions prior to the start of full-scale russian aggression in 2022, ukraine for many years was one of the leading suppliers of agricultural, to large extent raw materials, products to the global food market, providing more than 14% of its total volume. according to our estimates, both the level of participation of the country’s agricultural sector in the gvc and its dependence on imported resources have generally increased, albeit to varying degrees. the current war in ukraine not only has a catastrophic impact on the national economy, but also poses a threat to food security throughout the world, primarily in lowincome countries in asia and africa. in ukraine, people are dying en masse, crops and warehouses with food stocks are being destroyed, agricultural land is rendered unusable by shelling, and well-established supply chains of products and resources are being destroyed. all this is an incomplete list of the consequences of ongoing hostilities. it is already obvious that this year the situation will lead to a significant (by 30%~35%) reduction in ukraine’s production of its global food specialization, in particular, grain. the ongoing significant destruction of ukrainian agriculture as a result of the war testifies to the need for a large-scale post-war restoration of agricultural production. the result of this should be the formation of an environmentally sound specialization that meets both nationally oriented goals and international requirements (in particular, the eu green deal). this will make it possible to implement the concept of ecological resource-conserving agriculture and preserve national natural resources in the long term. our assessments have shown the possibility of achieving under these conditions a high level of self-sufficiency of the country’s population with food, diversifying agricultural exports, and entering foreign markets with new types of products. in particular, against the background of the expected reduction in the production and export of sunflower, corn, sunflower oil, we can expect an increase in the total area of forage land and the corresponding potential for the production and export of livestock products, an extension of the commercial production of potatoes, an expansion of the organic segment, as well as an accelerated development of processing industries. to achieve such goals, the state must first of all intensify the stimulation of sustainable technologies’ usage by farmers, as well as promote the expansion of capacities for processing agricultural raw materials. for this, following the example of other countries, it is necessary to adopt and finance appropriate programs. obviously, the cardinal solution of such problems in ukraine will be 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(in ukrainian) available online: http://agro.vobu. ua/1094. (accessed on 24 june 2022) [27] shubravska, o., prokopenko, k., 2022. ensuring food security of ukraine: post-war context. economy of ukraine. 7. 21-42. (in ukrainian). doi: https://doi.org/10.15407/economyukr.2022.07.021 [28] slovo, i.d., 2022. how the population of ukraine will decrease due to the war a forecast of a sociologist. (in ukrainian). available online: https:// www.slovoidilo.ua/2022/06/07/novyna/suspilstvo/ yak-skorotytsya-chyselnist-naselennya-ukrayiny-cherez-vijnu-prohnoz-soczioloha. 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under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.161 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae the development history and trend of international agricultural economics cheng sun1　yunbiao li2* 1. world academy of productivity science (waps), beijing, 102600, china 2. school of management, jilin university, jilin, heilongjiang, 130022, china article info abstract article history received: 19 march 2020 revised: 26 march 2020 accepted: 24 april 2020 published online: 30 april 2020 agricultural economics is a science that studies the relations of production and the laws of productivity in agriculture. international agricultural economics is to study the agricultural production relations and the laws of productivity in different regions of the world, countries with different systems, and different historical stages, especially the history and future development trends of agricultural economic development under different social systems in the east and the west, in order to learn from each other. the development of agricultural economic theory and practical experience, promote the integration of global agricultural economy, improve the status quo of global chemical agriculture, develop global modern ecological agriculture, ensure global food and food safety, and improve the health of human life. keywords: development history trend international agricultural economics 　 1. definition and connotation of international agricultural economics agricultural economics is a science that studies the relations of production and the laws of pro-ductivity in agriculture. international agricultural economics is a science that studies the relationship between agricultural production and the laws of productivity in different regions, countries with different systems, and different historical stages in the world. agricultural economics is a discipline that studies agricultural production and its related economic activities and economic relations such as exchange, distribution, and consumption. it has rich connotations, including the development and change of production relations in agriculture, the rational organization of various elements of productivity, and the law and application of development and utilization. the study of the laws of production relations mainly includes the exploration of the ownership of the means of production in agriculture, the position and mutual relationship of people in the production relations, and the circulation and distribution of agricultural products; the research on the law of productivity operation mainly involves the organization, allocation, communication technology innovation, technological progress, agricultural labor productivity, agricultural machinery productivity, fertilizer utilization rate, organic resource utilization rate, land output rate and other total factor productivity of agricultural productivity. innovate and upgrade to maximize economic, social and ecological benefits. in different regions, different countries, and different political systems and systems, the laws and methods of production relations and productivity in agriculture are different, and there are significant differences. the form of ownership of the means of production determines the relations of production, the relations of production de*corresponding author: yunbiao li, school of management, jilin university, jilin, heilongjiang, 130022, china; e-mail: 810427415@qq.com copyright research on world agricultural economy is licensed under a creative commons-non-commercial 4.0 international copyright (cc by-nc4.0). readers shall have the right to copy and distribute articles in this journalin any form in any medium, and may also modify, convert or create on the basis of articles. in sharing and using articles in this journal, the user must indicate the author and source, and mark the changes made in articles. copyright nan yang academy of sciences pte. ltd. all rights reserved. 2 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 termine productivity, and productivity affects total factor productivity. through the calculation and international comparison of agricultural total factor productivity in china and other countries in the world, including time and space dimensions, the historical evolution of the international comparison of income and productivity is studied, and the theoretical connotation of agricultural economics and the practical experience of agricultural production are summarized and enriched. in the research of agricultural economics, the comparative analysis of empirical research on the level of international productivity provides a reference and reference for countries with different regions and different social systems to formulate agricultural economic development plans according to their national conditions, and promotes global agricultural total factor productivity (tfp) improve level. the international comparative research on agricultural economy provides a basic database and a new scientific perspective, which will contribute to the promotion of global agricultural economic integration, the development of global ecological agriculture, the protection of food security, and the improvement of the quality of life and health of all citizens around the world. 2. the development history of international agricultural economics the research history of international agricultural economics has a long history. the research on economic activities and economic relations in agriculture originated in the period of slave society. the needs of slave owners to manage the manor economy developed in the period of feudal society. the ancient chinese agricultural economic thinking mainly emphasized the prosperity of the country and the people at the macro level. it was necessary to “put agriculture first, emphasize agriculture and restrain business” and reduce the tax burden of farmers; at the micro level, it mainly emphasized the development of agricultural production, and made good use of the time and place. , improve agricultural technology, and carefully manage. representative works expounding these ideas include guan zi and lu shi chun qiu in the late warring states period, and qi min yao shu in the post-wei dynasty. in the works of confucius and mencius in the spring and autumn period of china, there are many issues concerning agricultural economy, land system, development of agricultural economy, and stability of people’s livelihood. at the beginning of the warring states period, li tiao’s “method of creating a level of peace”, dong zhongshu’s proposition of “restricting people’s name (occupying) the land with insufficient support” in the han dynasty, and wang anshi’s policies for young crops, equal transportation, market trade, exemption, farmland water conservancy, etc. it is the representative of agricultural economic thought in the period of chinese slave society and feudal society. modern agricultural economics dates back to china in the 1920s, and many economists and scholars at home and abroad have paid close attention to and studied them, such as tao menghe’s “chinese rural life”, o·e shell’s “agriculture and china’s the future, fb taylor’s “research on rural economy in china”. after the 1930s, the research and teaching of agricultural economics were successively carried out in the institute of social sciences of the academia sinica, nankai university, jinling university, zhejiang university, central university and other institutions. xu xuan, liang qingchun, wu wenhui, zhang zhi, etc. successively published many works on the concept of agricultural economics, land issues, and tenant farming issues. the publication of mao zedong’s “analysis of various classes in chinese society” and “an investigation report on the hunan peasant movement” opened a new page for china’s rural economic problems. after the founding of the people’s republic of china in 1949, early research was mainly influenced by the agricultural economics of the former soviet union. after 1980, due to more integration of china’s rural economic reforms and agricultural development practices, new progress has been made in the research of socialist agricultural economics. the ancient agricultural economic thoughts of european and western countries are generally similar to those of ancient china. his representative works include “on agriculture” by grand cato in roman times and “on agriculture” by varro. however, agricultural economics, as a specialized discipline, gradually formed with the development of capitalism in agriculture. in the middle of the eighteenth century, special works on agricultural economic issues first appeared in the uk, mainly describing the conditions of emerging capitalist agricultural production, and analyzing the advantages of large-scale production in agriculture and the rational allocation of production factors. his representative works include “agricultural economy” in the uk. after the mid-nineteenth century, german agricultural economics works that used abstract methods to study the location allocation of agricultural management and agricultural production appeared, which greatly advanced the research of agricultural economics to the theoretical overdoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.161 3 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 view. its representative work is “tu neng” the relationship between isolated countries, agriculture and national economy. after the mid-nineteenth century, agricultural economics in capitalist countries turned to research on the form of agricultural operations, focusing on exploring the rational intensive degree of agricultural production and management and a reasonable departmental structure. since the 1920s, the united states has become more active in the study of agricultural economics. it mainly studies the principles, principles and methods of how farmers can obtain the greatest profit with the least investment under the conditions of capitalism. it also pays more attention to the transportation and marketing of agricultural products. and research on agricultural finance issues. after the 1930s, due to the deepening of the economic crisis of capitalism, agriculture was increasingly caught in the threat of violent market fluctuations, and the research of agricultural economics focused on the development of agricultural product market forecasts and the state’s intervention and control methods in agricultural production. after the 1950s, capitalist agricultural economics emphasized quantitative analysis. in addition to the more extensive use of statistical methods, mathematical models were also used. in the course of its development, agricultural economics has a tendency to gradually decompose into many branches. since the 1950s, agricultural economics has been gradually decomposed into more specialized disciplines such as farm management, agricultural production economics, agricultural transportation and marketing, agricultural finance, land economics, agribusiness management, and agricultural policy. under the conditions of the socialist system in china, the research and application of agricultural economics has systematically clarified the laws of the occurrence and development of the socialist agricultural system in order to correctly carry out the socialist transformation and socialist construction of agriculture. it is of great significance for the rational use of agricultural resources and scientific and technological achievements, the improvement of agricultural total factor productivity, and the development from extensive traditional agriculture to high-quality, eco-friendly modern ecological agriculture. 3. the development trend of international agricultural economics since the 18th century, human society has experienced three technological revolutions, namely, the first mechanical-led technological revolution that emerged in the 1860s, the second electric-driven technological revolution that emerged in the 1870s, and the 1940s the third technological revolution led by information emerged in the 1940s. while the three scientific and technological revolutions have created a modern industrial system, they have also pushed china to bid farewell to the primitive agriculture era, enter the traditional agriculture era represented by mechanization, fertilizer and pesticide application, and move towards modern agriculture. since entering the 21st century, the world has entered an unprecedented era of intensive innovation and industrial revitalization. although the regions are different, the political and social systems of the country are different, and the forms of ownership of the means of production are different, there are also significant differences in the laws of movement that constitute the relations of production and the relations of productive forces. however, with the acceleration of global economic integration, global agricultural economic integration has entered a new era of increasing total factor productivity. the concept that science and technology is the primary productivity has become the core of international agricultural economics research. how to improve agricultural labor productivity, agricultural mechanization productivity, fertilizer utilization rate, organic resource utilization rate, land yield rate, and agricultural economic contribution rate have become the focus of agricultural economic research programs in various countries around the world. in the 21st century, high and new technology focusing on biotechnology, information technology, new material technology, new energy technology, etc. have developed rapidly, and strategic emerging industries have continued to emerge. they have become the commanding heights of countries occupying technology and competition, and are gaining advantages in international competition. an important support for status. at the same time, the application of high-tech in agriculture has gradually become the cornerstone of supporting the development of world agriculture and the key to enhancing the competitiveness of traditional agriculture, accelerating the transformation of traditional agriculture to modern agriculture, and the subsequent modern ecological agriculture and organic green agriculture , precision agriculture, digital agriculture, internet agriculture, traditional chinese medicine agriculture, etc., have all appeared one after another. at present, with the rapid development of world science and technology, as a leading technology of knowledge enrichment and technology enrichment, agricultural high and new technology has also been endowed with new connotations. it embodies the high-level dynamic relationship of human society to nature and has a powerful the productivity function and social function of the comdoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.161 4 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 pany are the leading factors that can bring huge economic, social and ecological benefits to the society and promote the sustainable development of agriculture. in the research of international agricultural economics, the specific future trends are mainly manifested in the following points: (1) in-depth research on the theoretical direction, development path, and operation methods of total factor productivity science and technology; research and explore new quality management systems and quality statistical evaluation systems that conform to china’s new era of innovation, coordination, green, open and shared development concepts; research through technological progress, scientific and technological innovation to achieve the improvement of production efficiency; research through the innovative combination of agricultural production factors to achieve the improvement of allocation efficiency. a strategic international scientific and technological innovation cooperation project jointly researched by the famous american scientists tor dahl and asscciates, the nobel prize winner in economics and known as the “father of world productivity science”, and the international academician consortium and the beijing shikemeng productivity technology r&d center the project “introduction of the world’s advanced total factor productivity science and technology to establish a scientific application system of total factor productivity with chinese characteristics international cooperation research”, for china’s proposed “promoting china’s economic development quality reform, efficiency change, dynamic change, improve total factor productivity”, provide it provides scientific theoretical guidance and practical reference, operating methods and development approaches. (2) international basic research on agricultural economy represented by agricultural biological genomes, functional genomes and proteomes has become more in-depth, and technological methods continue to innovate and present a trend of rapid development, which has become the most effective way of animal and plant breeding. agricultural biotechnology is a series of high and new technologies for targeted and purposeful implementation of agricultural biological genetic improvement and innovation, and biological manufacturing. in this regard, there have been successful cases internationally. the more representative plants include the “super hybrid rice” by yuan longping, an academician of the chinese academy of engineering, the institute of plant ecology of china agricultural university and the international academician consortium elementary particle ecology professional committee, “sorrel “sorrel” comprehensive development industry research”, which has a comprehensive analysis of sod and systematic research has been done on the cultivation and processing of the high-protein forage plant “sorrel”, and the sorrel sod has been in the international leading position. in terms of animal gene and functional gene research, china’s representative china shandong kelong animal husbandry industry co., ltd. “luxi yellow cattle breeding” and “black bone sheep” distant cross breeding. in recent years, the united states has successively launched molecular breeding programs for soybeans, wheat, and corn. the international rice research institute (irri) and the international center for maize and wheat improvement (cimmyt) have organized and implemented molecular breeding programs for rice, corn, and wheat. . in 2006, genetically modified sheep also received european approval, marking that genetically modified animal breeding has begun to enter the application stage. the development of biotechnology and the changes it brings are increasingly being accepted by countries all over the world and gradually moving towards practical applications. the application of agricultural biotechnology has become a new economic growth point for the development of modern agriculture. in recent years, the research and development capabilities of microbial fertilizers and microbial pesticides have been continuously improved, and they have been gradually promoted and applied in countries around the world. according to relevant data, there are currently more than 200 active ingredients of biogenic pesticides in the world, more than 11,000 registered products, and product sales reaching nearly us$3 billion. microbial fertilizers are constantly innovating, and many varieties are widely used in agriculture. in particular, biotechnology has played a very important role in the improvement of low-yield fields and the remediation of contaminated soil. the representative product is the “century tianwang” bio-organic fertilizer which is widely used in chinese agriculture. it is hailed as the “sacred fertilizer” by chinese farmers. it is used to increase crop yields, ensure food safety, repair contaminated soil, and control agricultural pollution. made a huge contribution. (3) agricultural informatization, digitalization, and intelligence are changing the mode of agricultural production. beginning in the 1990s, developed countries such as europe and the united states improved the level of agricultural informatization through the adoption of digital agricultural technology, and completely changed the operation mode of traditional agricultural extensive production. in recent years, with the global positioning system (gps), (beidou), geographic information system (gis), continudoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.161 5 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 ous data acquisition sensor (cds), remote sensing (rs), variable speed self-care equipment (vrt), and decision support system (dss) the application of technologies such as) in agriculture has made agricultural operations more standardized, refined, efficient, factory-oriented and controllable. a new agricultural model called “precision agricuiture” has been used in developed countries in recent years. gradually emerging, and gradually changing the way of agricultural production and management. the continuous development and application of digital agricultural technology has greatly promoted the development of automation, informatization and intelligent technology of agricultural equipment, and improved the total factor productivity of agriculture. (4) the deep processing of agricultural products and the integration and breakthrough of marine agricultural high-tech have greatly increased the added value of agricultural products and produced huge economic benefits. in recent years, china’s agricultural product processing technology has developed rapidly, transformation efficiency has been greatly improved, and product quality has improved. the proportion of agricultural product processing industry in the total agricultural output value is increasing year by year. in 2010, it reached 6.31 trillion yuan, surpassing the united states to become the world’s largest food manufacturing industry. in 2011, it reached 7.81 trillion yuan, exceeding the national total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and sideline fishery. in 2012, the total output value was 8.97 trillion yuan, accounting for about gdp in the same year. 5.8%. the processing of agricultural products has become an important growth point of the rural economy. (5) the gradual and widespread application of new material technologies in agriculture is an effective way to improve the utilization of agricultural resources and soil restoration. in recent years, breakthroughs have been made in new material technology, and the scope of application in agricultural centers has continued to expand, especially in the restoration of obstacles in low-yield fields, the improvement of saline-alkali land, and the restoration of heavy metal contaminated farmland, showing that new materials have very broad application prospects. nanomaterials are ultrafine particles, which are called “new materials in the 21st century, with many special functions.” the use of nanomaterials to repair soil and repair polluted water bodies is considered an effective method. for example, the “century tianwang” soil-specific nano-remediation material widely used in china is a very representative agricultural material. it can improve soil organic matter, change soil aggregate structure, remove soil harmful heavy metals, degrade chemical pesticide residues, and increase crop yields. there are significant effects in many aspects such as quality. in the improvement of saline-alkali soils, the “century tianwang” nano new material project is listed as a key research and development plan (major scientific and technological innovation project) project of shandong province, china. in short, the future research and development trend of international agricultural economics must focus on “ecology, safety, conservation, environmental protection, organic, and pollution-free” for in-depth research and innovation. this is a new major strategic trend for agricultural development. references [1] zeng xibai, li yongtao, lin qi. new technology for low-yield farm improvement and its development trend [m]. beijing: china science press, 2017. (in chinese) [2] department of rural and social development, ministry of science and technology of china. new slow-release fertilizer technology and application [m]. taiwan: taiwan publishing house, 2006. (in chinese) [3] zhu daohua. agricultural economics [m]. beijing: china agriculture press, 2001. (in chinese) about the author cheng sun is an academician and researcher of the world academy of productivity science (waps). he is currently the executive chairman and secretary-general of the china branch of the world productivity science alliance, the chairman of the executive committee of the international federation of academicians, and the director of the academician studio of the rural education development center. published papers and monographs such as “contemporary research on the strategy of rejuvenating the country”, “new type of slow release fertilizer technology and application”, “the imbalance of plant nutritional growth and reproductive growth balance is an important source of environmental pollution caused by overuse of fertilizers”. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.161 16 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: kassa tarekegn, southern agricultural research institute, arba minch agricultural research center, arba minch, ethiopia; email: kassatar12@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.486 received: 18 january 2022; received in revised form: 28 february 2022; accepted: 7 march 2022; published: 11 march 2022 citation: tarekegn, k., shitaye y., 2022. determinants of market participation among dairy producers in southwestern ethiopia. research on world agricultural economy. 3(1), 486. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.486 research article determinants of market participation among dairy producers in southwestern ethiopia kassa tarekegn1*● yishaki shitaye2 1. southern agricultural research institute, arba minch agricultural research center, arba minch, ethiopia 2. southern agricultural research institute, bonga agricultural research center, bonga, ethiopia abstract: though bench sheko and sheka zones have great potential for dairy production in ethiopia, the majority of dairy producers’ could not get benefit from the sector in a sustainable way due to the low market participation problem. hence, this study was designed to analyze determinants of market participation by dairy producers’ in southwestern ethiopia. data from 160 sampled dairy producers were employed and analyzed by using the probit model. the model result shows the ownership of crossbreeds, utilization of improved livestock feeds and size of dairy cows’ ownership affect market participation decisions significantly and positively. while the number of children below six years and distance from the market is the significant factors determining the likelihood of dairy market participation negatively in southwestern ethiopia. therefore, demonstrations of improved livestock breed through supplying improved bulls and artificial insemination technologies, demonstration of improved livestock forages and concentrates through training, and organizing dairy marketing cooperative and dairy products collection centers are suggested to improve the market participation in the study area. keywords: cattle; dairy; probit model; crossbreed; marketing 1. introduction ethiopia is continually shown as one of the most potential countries in livestock resources in africa with a projected 70.292 million cattle [1]. of the total cattle population, about 56.22% of the national herd was female cattle. dairy is an integral part of livestock production in the country which is a major contributor to economic development [2]. due to its ample availability of resources for dairy production, the country has an immense capacity for dairy production [3]. dairy products are highly nutritious and valuable human food that are consumed in a variety of different products forms by millions in ethiopia [3,4]. the southern nations nationalities and peoples region (snnpr) of ethiopia has about 11.13 million cattle population that making the region the third-highest livestock production area next to oromia and amhara regions [1]. the average cow productivity is 1.65 litres per day per cow with a total annual milk yield of 667,562 tons. according to snnpr’s boa [5], about 5,443,567 dairy cows http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.486 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9571-1849 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0660-6743 17 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 are found in the region, from which 103,252 tons of milk are produced per annum. however, the livestock productivity and the benefits obtained from the sector do not match the high livestock population in ethiopia [6,7]. in addition due to low market participation in the region, the dairy sector has a low capacity to benefit the producers and diversify their income sources [8]. since dairy market participation is an important tool for minimizing losses and diversification for dairy farmers’ income, identifying the factors limiting dairy farmers’ market participation at the household level has paramount importance [6]. for many years, bench sheko and sheka zones of southwestern ethiopia have had well-suited agro-ecology and vegetation cover for livestock production [8,9]. the area has great potential for dairy production because of the ample availability of forage and water but there is a market participation problem among small dairy farmers [8,9]. because of this, most dairy producers are unable to sustainably benefit from the sector. besides, the determining factors that affect dairy market participation are not well addressed. so, it is important to investigate factors affecting dairy producers’ market participation in the zones. though there are different studies regarding dairy marketing in ethiopia like somano [10], benyam et al. [11], kassa and dekamo [12], embaye [13], abera [14], gebrekiros et al. [15], muzemil [6], lee et al. [7], eshetu [16] and gemechu et al. [17]. none of these studies have empirically investigated the determinants of dairy market participation in bench sheko and sheko zones while the area has huge diary production potential. to promote the dairy sector as an important pathway to food security for the growing urban markets demand, strengthening dairy production with stronger dairy producers’ market participation is highly encouraged [18,19]. therefore, to develop the dairy value chain, the identification of root causes for interventions targeting the improvement of the production and marketing system of the dairy sector are crucial. thus, this study was intended to identify the determinants of dairy products market participation in southwestern ethiopia. the result of this study will enable policymakers to design and implement effective policies and programs [18]. 2. methodology 2.1 description of the study area the study was conducted in the bench sheko and sheka zones of southwestern ethiopia. the zones are located at 561 km and 694 km far distance from addis ababa in the southwest part, respectively. the altitude of the bench sheko zone ranges from 850 to 3000 meters and while the sheka zone range is 1200 to 3000 meters above sea level [8]. for the bench sheko zone, the annual rainfall and temperature range from 20 °c to 40 °c and 1200 to 2000 mm, respectively and while for the sheka zone it ranges from 15.1 oc-27.5 oc and 1201 mm-1800 mm, respectively [20]. the zones have the highest amount of forage availability throughout the year with suitable agro-ecology for livestock production [9]. about 284,361 and 367,853 cattle populations are found in the sheka and benchi-sheko zones of southwestern ethiopia, respectively [1]. 2.2 sampling methods and sample size a multistage sampling technique was followed for this study to select sample dairy producers. in the first stage, two districts were selected purposively from each zone based on the existing potential of dairy production. in the second stage, two kebeles (the smallest administrative level in ethiopia) were selected randomly from each selected district since dairy production was in the study area. in the third stage, within the selected kebeles households were categorized into dairy producers and non-producers groups based on the presence of lactating cows during the survey period and a total of 160 sample households were selected randomly. the formula given by yamane [21] that is suitable for the finite population was used to determine the intended sample size. accordingly, the sample size was determined as illustrated by the following formula: 3 a multistage sampling technique was followed for this study to select sample dairy producers. in the first stage, two districts were selected purposively from each zone based on the existing potential of dairy production. in the second stage, two kebeles (the smallest administrative level in ethiopia) were selected randomly from each selected district since dairy production was in the study area. in the third stage, within the selected kebeles households were categorized into dairy producers and non-producers groups based on the presence of lactating cows during the survey period and a total of 160 sample households were selected randomly. the formula given by yamane [21] that is suitable for the finite population was used to determine the intended sample size. accordingly, the sample size was determined as illustrated by the following formula: 푛 = 푁 1+푁(푒2) = 21785 1+21785(0.082) = 155~160 (1) where n is a sample size, n is the total number dairy producing households in the selected kebeles which is 21785 and e is the level of precision (8%=0.08). 2.3 methods of data collections this study used both quantitative and qualitative research methods to collect crosssectional data from the sampled households. to increase the precision and reliability of data, a triangulation method was applied by semi-structured questionnaires, focus group discussions (fgd), and key informant interviews (kii) as endorsed by ariho et al. [22]. the semi-structured questionnaire was used for the dairy producers’ survey while the checklist was used to collect supporting data through fgd and kii. to collect the intended data, the development agents (da) who are working at sample kebeles were used as enumerators. before data collection, clarity on each question included in the interview schedule and on the techniques of data collection was given to the selected enumerators. before the formal survey, to evaluate the appropriateness of the questionnaire design, clarity, relevance and time taken for the interview, the pretest of the questionnaire was done on randomly selected 18 households. based on the pretest feedback, appropriate amendments were made to the questionnaire before undertaking the formal survey. in addition, 8 fgd were conducted with a group of 6-10 dairy producers at kebele level by using the checklist. the quantitative and qualitative data on current dairy production and marketing systems were collected through kii from each selected district within the two zones. finally, the collected data were coded, entered into statistical package for social sciences (spss) version 21. for detailed analysis, the entered data were transferred to stata 16 version. 2.4 analytical framework market participation is the involvement of farmers in inputs and output markets to rise production, earnings that in turn reduce poverty [23,24]. in smallholder dairy farming, market participation is determined by production and marketing access factors as indicated by various authors [6,7,15,25-27]. the decision of farmers to participate in the market was based on the perceived utility gotten from it with a minimum cost of transactions [28]. thus, the decision to participate in the dairy products market or not participate was a dummy choice that was built on utility maximization theory [16,17] and it was considered under the general framework of utility maximization illustrated by barrett [29]. though utility was not observed directly, it was observed through the choices actions made by dairy producers. suppose that and 푈푘 represent a household’s utility for two choices, which are, correspondingly, denoted by and 푌푘, respectively. thus, the linear random utility model specified as 2: uj = βjxi + ej and uk = βkxi + ek (2) (1) where n is a sample size, n is the total number dairy producing households in the selected kebeles which is 21785 and e is the level of precision (8%=0.08). 2.3 methods of data collections this study used both quantitative and qualitative research methods to collect cross-sectional data from the sampled households. to increase the precision and reliability of data, a triangulation method was applied by semistructured questionnaires, focus group discussions (fgd), and key informant interviews (kii) as endorsed by ariho et al. [22]. the semi-structured questionnaire was used for the dairy producers’ survey while the checklist was used to collect supporting data through fgd and kii. to collect the intended data, the development agents (da) who are working at sample kebeles were used as enumerators. before data collection, clarity on each question included in the interview schedule and on the techniques of data collection was given to the selected enumerators. before the formal survey, to evaluate the appropriateness of the questionnaire design, clarity, relevance and time taken for 18 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 the interview, the pretest of the questionnaire was done on randomly selected 18 households. based on the pretest feedback, appropriate amendments were made to the questionnaire before undertaking the formal survey. in addition, 8 fgd were conducted with a group of 6-10 dairy producers at kebele level by using the checklist. the quantitative and qualitative data on current dairy production and marketing systems were collected through kii from each selected district within the two zones. finally, the collected data were coded, entered into statistical package for social sciences (spss) version 21. for detailed analysis, the entered data were transferred to stata 16 version. 2.4 analytical framework market participation is the involvement of farmers in inputs and output markets to rise production, earnings that in turn reduce poverty [23,24]. in smallholder dairy farming, market participation is determined by production and marketing access factors as indicated by various authors [6,7,15,25-27]. the decision of farmers to participate in the market was based on the perceived utility gotten from it with a minimum cost of transactions [28]. thus, the decision to participate in the dairy products market or not participate was a dummy choice that was built on utility maximization theory [16,17] and it was considered under the general framework of utility maximization illustrated by barrett [29]. though utility was not observed directly, it was observed through the choices actions made by dairy producers. suppose that and represent a household’s utility for two choices, which are, correspondingly, denoted by and, respectively. thus, the linear random utility model specified as 2: 3 a multistage sampling technique was followed for this study to select sample dairy producers. in the first stage, two districts were selected purposively from each zone based on the existing potential of dairy production. in the second stage, two kebeles (the smallest administrative level in ethiopia) were selected randomly from each selected district since dairy production was in the study area. in the third stage, within the selected kebeles households were categorized into dairy producers and non-producers groups based on the presence of lactating cows during the survey period and a total of 160 sample households were selected randomly. the formula given by yamane [21] that is suitable for the finite population was used to determine the intended sample size. accordingly, the sample size was determined as illustrated by the following formula: 푛 = 푁 1+푁(푒2) = 21785 1+21785(0.082) = 155~160 (1) where n is a sample size, n is the total number dairy producing households in the selected kebeles which is 21785 and e is the level of precision (8%=0.08). 2.3 methods of data collections this study used both quantitative and qualitative research methods to collect crosssectional data from the sampled households. to increase the precision and reliability of data, a triangulation method was applied by semi-structured questionnaires, focus group discussions (fgd), and key informant interviews (kii) as endorsed by ariho et al. [22]. the semi-structured questionnaire was used for the dairy producers’ survey while the checklist was used to collect supporting data through fgd and kii. to collect the intended data, the development agents (da) who are working at sample kebeles were used as enumerators. before data collection, clarity on each question included in the interview schedule and on the techniques of data collection was given to the selected enumerators. before the formal survey, to evaluate the appropriateness of the questionnaire design, clarity, relevance and time taken for the interview, the pretest of the questionnaire was done on randomly selected 18 households. based on the pretest feedback, appropriate amendments were made to the questionnaire before undertaking the formal survey. in addition, 8 fgd were conducted with a group of 6-10 dairy producers at kebele level by using the checklist. the quantitative and qualitative data on current dairy production and marketing systems were collected through kii from each selected district within the two zones. finally, the collected data were coded, entered into statistical package for social sciences (spss) version 21. for detailed analysis, the entered data were transferred to stata 16 version. 2.4 analytical framework market participation is the involvement of farmers in inputs and output markets to rise production, earnings that in turn reduce poverty [23,24]. in smallholder dairy farming, market participation is determined by production and marketing access factors as indicated by various authors [6,7,15,25-27]. the decision of farmers to participate in the market was based on the perceived utility gotten from it with a minimum cost of transactions [28]. thus, the decision to participate in the dairy products market or not participate was a dummy choice that was built on utility maximization theory [16,17] and it was considered under the general framework of utility maximization illustrated by barrett [29]. though utility was not observed directly, it was observed through the choices actions made by dairy producers. suppose that and 푈푘 represent a household’s utility for two choices, which are, correspondingly, denoted by and 푌푘, respectively. thus, the linear random utility model specified as 2: uj = βjxi + ej and uk = βkxi + ek (2) (2) where uj and have perceived utilities of market participation for dairy and non-market participation choices j and k, respectively, xi the vector of explanatory variables that affect the perceived utilities of each choice, and uk utility shifters, and and ek are error terms assumed to be independently and identically distributed [30]. from the economist’s perspective, an individual i decides to participate if the utility associated with that participation choice (uj) is higher than the utility associated with the decision not to participate (choice), (uk). in the case of dairy market participation, if a household decides to use option j, it follows that the perceived utility or benefit from option j is greater than the utility from options k as illustrated in equation 3: (3) for econometric estimation, linear probability model (lpm), logit, probit models suggested regression models by numerous for binary choice depended on variables [6,23,31-34]. since our dependent variable is dummy, the alternative binary models such as logit and probit models were used for this study. since the probabilities are bounded between 0 and 1 for these models, they fit well into the nonlinear relationship. even though the binary models have quite similar cumulative normal function (probit) and the logistic function (logit), gujarati [34] has noted the main difference by indicating that being the logistic function has a slightly fatter tail. in addition, wooldridge [35] suggested that the use of the probit model is more advantageous due to its normal distribution nature latent error terms. since our data resemble a normal distribution while checking error terms distribution, the probit model was used to estimate the likelihood of dairy producers’ market participation. thus, the model is built on a latent variable with the following formulation: pr (yi =1| xi, βi) = φ (h (xi, βi)) +μi (4) where is a dependent variable that takes on the value of 1 if the farmers participated in dairy marketing and 0 otherwise. φ is the standard normal cumulative distribution function, xi is a vector of factors that determine the dairy producers’ decision to participate in the market, is a vector of coefficients to be estimated which measures the effects of explanatory variables on the farmers’ decision is normally distributed disturbance with a mean (0) and constant variance and captures all unmeasured variables. the variable takes the value of 1 if the marginal utility of the household i get from participating in the market is greater than zero, and zero otherwise. from equation 3, then: (5) where is a latent (unobservable) variable representing a level of utility the household gets from selling dairy products and, (6) (7) the probability of farmers’ decision to participate in the dairy market depends on socio-economic, marketing, production and institutional related issues assuming. thus, based on previous studies on dairy market participation [6, 7, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17] and researchers’ insights, the determinants of dairy market participation are hypothesized as follows in table 1. 19 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 3. results and discussions 3.1 descriptive results the survey results in table 2 revealed that from the total of 160 sampled households, 68% were males and 32% were females. the average age of the respondents was found to be 49.50 years. the average family size under six years was about 2 children. the dairy production experience of the respondents was about 21 years. the average annual income generated from agricultural activities and nonagricultural was 28984.06 ethiopian birr (etb). the result also revealed that the farmers in the study area owned 3 lactating cows on average. this may be due to the availability of forage in the study area which leads to keeping a lot of livestock per household. the majority (88%) of sampled households are not users of improved feeding practices like improved feeds and forages. this may be due to the low level of improved feeding technology demonstrations in the study area. in addition, feed supplementation was not commonly practiced in rural areas of the study area as most of the dairy producers relied on grazing lands. in terms of the quantity of milk produced, on average 2.46 liters per day was produced at each farmer’s level in the study area with a lactating length of 8 months. the distance to the nearest market in the study area is 4.5 km on average which shows there is a problem with accessing the market at a shorter distance that hinders farmers’ market participation. table 1. description variables hypothesized as determinants of dairy market participation variables variable type variable definition and measurement expected effect market participation dummy 1 if household participate in dairy marketing, otherwise 0 sex of household dummy 1 if household head is male, otherwise 0 +/– experience continuous number of years in dairy production engaged + household size continuous number + education level continuous household head education level in grades attended + dairy cows size continuous dairy cows owned during the survey period in a number + type of breeds owned categorical 1= improved (cross) breed, 0=local breed + extension contact continuous frequency of extension contact per month + annual income(1000) continuous total annual income in ethiopian birr( etb) + distance to market continuous nearest market distance in kilometres – use of improved feeding dummy 1 if farmers used improved feeding and 0 otherwise + table 2. socio-demographic characteristics of sampled households dummy/categorical variables response frequency percent sex male 109 68.13 female 51 31.88 use of improved feeding no 140 87.50 yes 19 12.50 continuous variables observations mean std. dev. age 160 49.51 8.61 educational level 160 2.64 1.18 family size 160 2.24 1.05 experiences 160 20.88 9.04 annual income (1000) 160 28.984 3.468 distance from the nearest market 160 4.54 1.764 extension contact per year 160 3.45 2.62 number of dairy cows 160 2.72 1.33 milk yield /day in the liters 160 2.46 1.27 lactation length in months 160 8.13 1.42 20 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 the type of breed used is one of the important factors which determine the productivity of dairy cows. the result in figure 1 shows that the majority of the sampled respondents (69%) were using local breeds while the remaining 26% used both local and crossbreeds in the study area. from this, only about 5% of respondents were using cross breeds alone. this indicates that the breed improvement work in the area is weak and needs a lot of collaborative work. figure 1. types of cattle breeds owned 3.2 determinants of market participation the maximum likelihood estimates of probit model is strongly significant (lr chi2 (11) = 436.35 prob > chi2 = 0.000) indicating the joint significance of the coefficients. it indicates that the overall model is fittest and adequate with at least one of the explanatory variables contributing to the forecast of the dependent variable. finally, the test for model goodness-of-fit statistic shows that there is no statistically significant difference between predicted and observed values. thus authors cannot reject the model since pearson chi2 (149) = 156.12 with prob> chi2 = 0.4065 which is not significant. of the hypothesized variables, family size under the age of six years, number of dairy cows owned, type of breed owned, use of improved feeds and distance from nearest market influenced dairy market participation significantly (table 3). the model result shows that the number of dairy cows owned had a positive and significant effect on dairy market participation as expected. the relationship between the two variables indicates that an additional dairy cow owned by farmers could have increased the production linearly and that increases the probability of household market participation. the marginal effect shows that the increase in the number of dairy cows owned by one will increase the probability of farmers’ participation in the dairy market by 22%. this finding is similar to previous findings of benyam et al. [11], muzemil [6], gemechu et al. [17]. family size under six years had a significant and negative association with market participation decisions at less than a 1% probability level. the negative relationship is maybe a larger the family size under six-year, the parents give priority to those children since milk is considered as the main food for those children under six-year. the model result with its marginal effect coefficient confirms that as the family size under six years increases by one child, the probability of dairy products market participation decreases by 10.9 percent. the study conducted by muzemil [6] confirmed the negative and significant effect on the participation decision while a study by gemeda et al. [32] found the contrary result to the current study. the annual income of households is an income from farm and non-farm activities that have a significant and negative association with dairy products market participation decision at a 10% probability level. holding other factors constant, the model output indicates that the probability of dairy market participation decreases by 5.6% for each 1000 ethiopian birr increase in household income. the negative relation between the variables indicates that any additional income enables the farmers’ household to consume dairy products at home by considering the income gotten from dairy products marketing as insignificant and then contributing to decreased market participation probability. a study by gemechu et al. [17] contradicts the current finding in ethiopia. the type of dairy breed owned had a significant impact on dairy product market participation at a 1% probability level. the marginal effect after probit model shows that the likelihood to participate in dairy product marketing increased by 15% for those households who have improved dairy breeds as compared to those households who have the local dairy breeds. the use of improved dairy cattle bread encourages the farmers to increase the volume of milk production thus they decide to participate in dairy product marketing. this result suggests that the dairy market participation of households in the study area is more responsive to the type of cattle breed owned. studies by muzemil [6] and gemeda et al. [32] found similar finding that is in agreement with the current study. as expected improved feed utilization has a positive and significant relationship with dairy products market participation at a 1% probability level. the model output reveals that dairy product market participation likelihood has increased for those smallholders’ farmers who utilized the improved livestock feeds increased by 18% as compared to those farmers who do not utilize improved feeds (like improved forage and concentrates). this may be due that the use of improved forage like improved forages and concentrates in some peri-urban areas increased milk production that interns increase the probability of market par21 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 ticipation. a study by kassa et al. [8] found a similar result that confirms the utilization of improved feeds increase market participation in ethiopia. as anticipated, distance to the nearest urban center is statistically significant and negatively associated with farmers’ likelihood to participate in dairy products marketing. the negative association may be probable diary producers in remote areas lacks updated market information and low profit may be due to high transaction cost. the marginal effect result indicates that as farmers far from the nearest dairy products marketing center increased by 1 km, the probability of farmer’s dairy market participation decreased by 6%. studies by lee et al. [7] and gemechu et al. [17] found a similar result that confirms the higher distance from the marketing center lowers the likelihood of market participation. 4. conclusions and recommendation in conclusion, dairy producers’ market participation in bench-sheko and sheko zones was weak as compared to the potentiality of the area from dairy production. the model regression result suggested that family size under the age of 6 years, income level of household head and distance from the nearest market were negatively associated with the probability of market participation whereas the number of dairy cows owned, use of improved cattle breeds, and feeds had a positive and significant effect on dairy product market participation decisions in the study area. since the use of improved dairy cattle has a significant impact on the amount of dairy produced, the demonstration of improved dairy cattle in the study is crucial to increase the adoption and production rates and market participation of farmers in the study area. in addition, supplying the improved bull at kebele level increases the chance of getting improved dairy cattle in the study area. furthermore, the utilization of improved livestock feeds like improved forages and concentrates enhance dairy production substantially in the area where they are utilized. thus, the office of livestock development and research institutions should demonstrate the improved livestock feeds for dairy production. finally, distance from marketing centers decreases the producers’ motivation to participate in the market due to weak market information and high transaction cost in the study area. hence, the establishment of dairy products marketing cooperatives at the kebele level and dairy products collection centers within the community level are suggested. conflict of interest the authors declare that they have no individual relationships that could have performed to affected the work reported in this study and have no known conflict of financial interests. references [1] csa (federal democratic republic of ethiopia central statistical agency), 2021. report on livestock and livestock characteristics: agricultural sample survey-volume ii. www.csa.et.surveyreport. [2] yilma, z., guernebleich, e., sebsibe, a., 2011. a table 3. determinants of dairy market participation probit model maximum likelihood estimates variable coefficients marginal effect p>z sex (male) 0.047(0.113) 0.008(0.014) 0.645 education level 0.173(0.10) 0.049(0.027) 0.605 family size below six year –0.408(0.147) –0.109(0.026) 0.005*** experience in dairy 0.052(0.042) 0.053(0.04) 0.318 average annual income (1000) 0.053(0.035) 0.056(0.034) 0.083* number of dairy cows owned 0.949(0.294) 0.217(0.093) 0.000*** improved feed utilization (yes) 0.83(0.076) 0.183(0.048) 0.000*** type of dairy breed owned (improved) 0.523(0.178) 0.151(0.043) 0.000** extension services 0.379(0.163) 0.082(0.043) 0.140 distance from the nearest market –0.208(0.082) –0.064(0.027) 0.023** constant 1.275(0.254) 0.000 number of obs = 160 lr chi2(10) = 436.35 prob > chi2 = 0.0000 log likelihood = -6473.8637 pseudo r2 = 0.3345 estatgof = pearson chi2(149) = 156.12 with prob> chi2 = 0.4065) ***, ** and * denotes significance level at 1%, 5% and 10% probability level, respectively. source: model output own survey data, 2021. http://www.csa.et.surveyreport 22 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 review of the ethiopian dairy sector. addis ababa, ethiopia: fao sub regional office for eastern africa. http://www.fao.org/3/a-aq291e.pdf [3] moa and ilri, 2013. dairy value chain vision and strategy for ethiopia. addis ababa, ethiopia: ministry of agriculture and international livestock research institute. https://cgspace.cgiar.org/ bitstream/ handle/10568/67249/lmp_dairy_2013.pdf. 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[22] ariho, a., makindara, j., tumwesigye, g., sikira, a. 2015. assessment of innovative market access options for banana value chain in uganda. journal of development and agricultural economics. 7(10), 323-331. doi: https://doi.org/10.5897/jdae2015.0644 [23] tarekegn, k., yosefe, k., 2017. determinants of poultry market participation decisions: the case of producers in kaffa and bench majji zones, southern ethiopia. journal of economics and sustainable development. 8(3), 23-29. http://www.fao.org/3/a-aq291e.pdf https://cgspace https://snnprboard.org/extension2018p https://snnprboard.org/extension2018p https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102891 https://bit.ly/2tutior https://bit.ly/2tutior https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/486a/2716e191a87be08fae60a223d7ee3429354f.pdf https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/486a/2716e191a87be08fae60a223d7ee3429354f.pdf https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/486a/2716e191a87be08fae60a223d7ee3429354f.pdf https://www.iiste.org/jeds/article/23575/24067 http://dx.doi.org/10.13106/jidb.2021.vol12.no10.19 http://dx.doi.org/10.13106/jidb.2021.vol12.no10.19 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237456 https://doi.org/10.5897/jdae2015.0644 23 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 [24] otekunrin, o., momoh, s., ayinde, i., 2019. smallholder farmers’ market participation: concepts and methodological approach from sub-saharan africa. current agricultural research. 7(2). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/carj.7.2.02 [25] adino, a., tessema, a., fentaw, t., 2021. determinants of market participation decision by smallholder haricot bean (phaseolus vulgaris l.) farmers in northwest ethiopia. cogent food & agriculture. 7(1), 1879715. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311932.2021.1879715 [26] omiti, j., otieno, d., nyanamba, t., et al., 2009. factors influencing the intensity of market participation by smallholder farmers: a case study of rural and peri-urban areas of kenya. african journal of agricultural resource economy. 3, 57-82. [27] olwande, j., smale, m., mathenge, m.k., et al., 2015. agricultural marketing by smallholders in kenya: a comparison of maize, kale and dairy. food policy. 52, 22-32. [28] muricho, g., kassie, m., obare, g., 2015. determinants of market participation regimes among smallholder maize producers in kenya. international association of agricultural economists conference, milan, italy. [29] barrett, c.b., 2008. smallholder market participation: concepts and evidence from eastern and southern africa. food policy. 33(4), 299-317. doi: https://doi.org/10. 1016/j.foodpol.2007.10.005 [30] greene, w.h., 2003. econometric analysis. 5th edition, prentice hall, upper saddle river. [31] kebede, a., mehammed, h., hagos, g., et al., 2015. determinants of market participation decision and level of participation of dairy farmers in tigray, ethiopia. international journal of current research. 7(3), 13512-13519. [32] gemeda, d.i., geleta, f.t., gesese, s.a., 2018. determinants of dairy product market participation of the rural households’ the case of adaberga district in west shewa zone of oromia national regional state, ethiopia. journal of business & financial affairs. 7, 362. doi: https://doi.org/10.4172/2167-0234.1000362 [33] etim, n., thompson, d., udoh, e., 2020. application of probit analysis in the decision of youths to participate in vegetable production. journal la bisecoman. 1(5), 1-7. doi: https://doi.org/10.3789 9/journallabisecoman. v1i5.234 [34] gujarati, d.n., 2004. basic econometrics. 4th edition, tata mcgraw-hill, new york. [35] wooldridge, j., 2002. econometric analysis of cross section and panel data, mit press. http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/carj.7.2.02 http://www.iaae-agecon.org/ http://www.iaae-agecon.org/ https://doi.org/10.3789 9/journallabisecoman.v1i5.234 https://doi.org/10.3789 9/journallabisecoman.v1i5.234 48 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: mohammad mobarak hossain, department of agronomy, bangladesh agricultural university, mymensingh, 2202, bangladesh; email: dr.mobarakphd@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i2.516 received: 8 april 2022; received in revised form: 22 may 2022; accepted: 27 may 2022; published: 30 may 2022 citation: hossain, m.m., begum, m., bell, r.w., 2022. land use, productivity, and profitability of traditional rice– wheat system could be improved by conservation agriculture. research on world agricultural economy. 3(2), 516. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i2.516 research article land use, productivity, and profitability of traditional rice–wheat system could be improved by conservation agriculture mohammad mobarak hossain1* mahfuza begum1 richard w bell2 1. department of agronomy, bangladesh agricultural university, mymensingh, 2202, bangladesh 2. centre for sustainable farming systems, future food institute, murdoch university, wa 6150, australia abstract: power tiller-driven plow tillage and crop residue exclusionary traditional agriculture practices are expensive, labor demanding, soil damaging, and eco-unfriendly. over the last several years, pursuits of crop production through sustaining the productive capacity of soils, and environmental quality, have raised concern to adopt conservation agriculture worldwide. single tillage combined with herbicides and crop residue retention principles of conservation agriculture are being developed. between 2016–2017 and 2017–2018, a two-year on-farm experiment was done in bangladesh. we practiced two crop establishment methods; traditional agriculture: plow tillage followed by three manual weeding without residue preservation of previous crop and conservation agriculture: pre-plant herbicide + single tillage + pre-emergence herbicide + post-emergence herbicide; under rice–wheat and rice–wheat–mungbean systems. data reveal that the conservation agriculture was more cost-effective crop establishment technique than traditional agriculture in rice, wheat, and mungbean by increasing the ratio of benefit to costs by 24.3%, 35.7% and 48.8%, respectively, with a savings in tillage operations (66.3%, 58.1%, and 57.6%, respectively), weeding expenditures (59.2%, 24.5%, and 42.2%, respectively), and manpower requirements (25.1%, 27.2%, and 31.3%, respectively). this has resulted in an increase of 32% productivity of rice–wheat–mungbean systems with the yield advantage of 16%, 31% and 37% in rice, wheat and mungbean, respectively. when mungbean was added, the rice–wheat system’s productivity rose by 43%. the rice–wheat–mungbean system under traditional agriculture had the highest land utilization efficiency (99.45%), followed by conservation agriculture (92.05%), which expanded the scope to include additional crops into rice–wheat–mungbean system. moreover, the conservation agriculture had a 59.7% greater production efficiency than traditional agriculture, where the rice–wheat–mungbean system having the highest production efficiency (53.00 kg–1 ha–1 day–1), followed by the rice–wheat system (45.57 kg–1 ha–1 day–1). keywords: plow tillage; single tillage; herbicides; crop residues; land utilization efficiency; production efficiency; rice equivalent yield 1. introduction rice–wheat (r–w) is the predominant cropping pattern in bangladesh, occupying around 0.8 million hectares of land [1]. in this system, rice is cultivated during the rainy https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0640-3209 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2754-4692 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7756-3755 49 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 season (july~october) while wheat is cultivated during the dry season (november~march). in april and may, the land sits fallow for two months. it has been shown that cereal–cereal sequences such as rice–wheat are more stressful on soil resources than cereal–legume sequences [2]. it is also suggested that the r–w system decreases system output owing to decreasing soil organic matter, reduced soil fertility, the development of nutrient imbalances, and ineffective fertilization techniques [3]. the r–w system is reported to extract more nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium than rice–rice (r–r) system. it is possible to plant a crop with a short life cycle of 60~65 days, such as mungbean, in rice–wheat–mungbean (r–w–m) combination, therefore making a substantial contribution to food and nutrition security [4]. additionally, by including mungbean (m), the nitrogen economy of the succeeding cereal crop may be enhanced in traditional r–w system. traditionally in bangladesh, almost all crops are cultivated via intensive plowing after the complete removal of previous crop. prior to manual transplantation, the rice field is traditionally saturated. on the other hand, nonrice crops e.g., wheat, mungbean etc. are grown on heavily pulverized dry soil. the sustainability of agricultural output is called into doubt by these traditional practices. intensive plowing degrades soil structure, depletes soil organic matter (som), and increases agricultural labor and fuel requirements for plowing, as well as the overall production cost. in addition, it delays the establishment of subsequent crops, resulting in decreased yields [5]. also, there are more worries about a lack of farm workers because of lower salaries and people moving to cities [6]. because of this, there is a lot of demand for labor and other low-input systems that can produce more for less capital. without a new and more long-lasting improvement in agricultural productivity, the supply of food would have a hard time keeping up with the fast-growing demand caused by a fast-growing population. conservation agriculture (ca) could be a way to deal with of these problems [6]. the ca is founded on the core principles of minimal soil plowing with herbicides, residue retention from prior crops, and judicious crop rotation [7]. combining single tillage with crop residues may enhance the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the soil, promote timely planting, save labor, fuel, and equipment costs, and preserve profitability [8]. however, global statistics indicate that technology may be able to assist bangladesh’s agriculture in addressing labor and energy problems. in ca, numerous solutions for minimal soil disturbance exist, including single tillage (st), which disturbs the soil surface by 15~25% with a plow ridge of 6 cm × 4 cm depth and width [5]. farmers are interested in using st to produce crops since it lowers cultivation expenses, prevents soil deterioration, and conserves water without sacrificing production. however, the st has been rebuked for its ineffective weed management. by contrast, typical heavy tillage efficiently smothers weeds and their seeds deep into the soil [9]. in st, to eradicate existing weeds and their viable seeds, a non-selective herbicide in a sequence of a pre-emergent and post-emergent herbicide must be applied [10]. farmers are increasingly using herbicides to manage weeds because of their quicker effectual actions with a cheaper cost to overcome the labor shortage caused by high salaries during peak demand seasons [11]. earlier study proved that herbicide ensured constant and efficient weed control and resulted in a greater yield as compared to manual weeding [12]. however, weed resistance to herbicides may develop with frequent usage of herbicides with the same chemical that increase weed control’s difficulty [13]. furthermore, herbicide longevity in the soil and their toxicity on the subsequent crop(s) are major problems. due to growing pricing and environmental concerns, the supply of acceptable herbicide compounds has diminished, and highlight the importance of implementing an integrated approach to managing weeds to ensure a sustainable st. residues of previous crops and crop intensification have already been highlighted as agronomic options for weed control in st practice integrated with herbicides [14]. previous research has shown that crop residue preservation accelerates system productivity through improving soil health and controlling weeds [13]. hence, it crucial to preserve resides of previous crops under r–w systems, which are typically removed from the fields. although multiple studies have been done on the combined impacts of st and crop residues to enhance the system productivity, no large-scale study has been conducted in bangladesh on this technique under the r–w–m system. the potential for r–w–m systems using the advantages of ca principles has generated considerable attention in bangladesh. thus, the present two-year research used r–w– m systems in conjunction with the low and single tillage and preserving residues to determine a sustainable crop production practice. 2. methodology 2.1 location and tenure the site of this on-farm experiment located at the bhungnamary village of gouripur sub-district under mymensingh district in bangladesh (24.4514°n, 90.2411°e) (figure 1). this two-years longer experiment was conducted during 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 successive years. 50 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 figure 1. site of the on-farm experimentations 2.2 soil and climate the field was a medium-high piece of land that was free of flooding and had a sandy clay loam soil texture (sand: silt: clay@52: 20: 28). the ph of the soil was 6.81 with n, p, k, and s content of 1100 ppm, 16.3 ppm, 0.32 ppm and 14.1 ppm, respectively. the average annual rainfall in the region is 172 mm, with around 95% falling between may and september (figure 2). total rain was extreme during june~october and lowest during november~march in both years. the highest temperature in april~may was sometimes over 33 °c, while the low temperature in january was about 12 °c. in both years, the months of october~november and march had the highest number of sunshine hours. 2.3 experimental materials, treatments, and design rice, wheat and mungbean were grown during the time of june~october, december~march, november~january and april~may, respectively in two successive years. the following two crop establishment methods under two cropping sequence were imposed in rcbd manner and were replicated four times. (a) crop establishment methods i. traditional agriculture (ta): plow tillage (pt) followed by three manual weeding (at 25 days, 45 days, and 65 days after planting) without residue preservation of previous crop; ii. conservation agriculture (ca): pre-plant herbicide (pph) prior to single tillage (st), followed by pre-emergence (peh) and post-emergence herbicides (poh) with 50% anchored residue of previous crop (height basis). here, we used glyphosate (3.7 l) and pendimethalin (2.5 l) as pph and peh for all crops, while, ethoxysulfuron-ethyl (100 g), carfentrazone-ethyl+isoproturon (1.25 kg), and fenoxaprop-p-ethyl (650 ml) as poh for rice, wheat, and mungbean, respectively. the rate of herbicides application was active ingredient per hectare basis. the pph was applied three days before in st operation. the peh and poh were applied three and 25 days after planting. only ethoxysulfuron-ethyl was sprayed in water logging conditions, and the rest were applied at field capacity moisture level. herbicides were applied using a handoperated knapsack sprayer. planting was done without keeping previous crop residues in the ta treatment. rice, wheat, and mungbean were harvested at 50% height of plant anchored from the ground label in ca. figure 2. weather conditions of the experimental site 51 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 (b) cropping systems i. traditional agriculture (ta): rice–wheat (r–w) system; ii. conservation agriculture (ca): rice–wheat–mungbean (r–w–m) system. 2.4 tillage and planting practice the pt had finished with four plowings and cross plowings in each 9 m × 5 m plot, done by a two-wheel tractor (2wt). a versatile multi-crop planter (vmp) machine finished the st. here, each row of 6 cm × 5 cm width and depth was made at the row spacing of the respective crop. summer rice (brri hybrid dhan6) seedlings were transplanted in the dully prepared puddled land in pt. whereas, in st, after the vmp operation, the field was flooded with about 5 cm of water for 24 hours to soften the strips enough to transplant single rice seedlings per hill. line seeding of wheat (bari gom 26), and mungbean (bari mung 6) was done using vmp in ca and by manually in ta on the same day. 2.5 intercultural operations we applied n, p, k, s and zn fertilizers in the form of prilled-urea, triple super phosphate, muriate of potash, gypsum and zinc sulphate monohydrate the crop field at the rate presented in the table 1. prior to planting in all crops, the whole p, k, and s were broadcast. at 2, 4, and 6 weeks after rice transplantation, n was administered in three splits. in wheat, two-thirds of the nitrogen was applied during final plowing and the remainder during the 3 weeks after seeding (was). mungbean was sown with the full dose of n. table 1. fertilizers used in the experimentations crops fertilizers (kg ha–1) n p k s zn rice 120 22 35 11 3 wheat 90 26 33 20 2 mungbean 20 20 15 10 1 rice did not require additional irrigation due to adequate rainfall. three irrigations at 3 was, 8 was, 11 was were used in wheat. two irrigations with adequate drainage were performed on the mungbean at 4 was. appropriate plant protection measures were undertaken throughout the crop growing season in accordance with the requirements [15,16]. 2.6 measurements and analysis 2.6.1 yield attributes and yield prescribed data on rice, wheat and mungbean have been transcribed from randomly selected ten plants at 80% maturity. all crops were reaped from a three-by-one meter space in three different locations within each plot. at a moisture level of 14%, the yield (t ha–1) was computed. 2.6.2 rice equivalent yield (rey) the rey was computed to compare system performance by converting non-rice crop yields to rice equivalent yield on a pricing basis using the equation (1). the rey of all individual crops was summed together to calculate system productivity [17]. (1) here, yx and px denote the yield (t ha–1) and price (us$ t–1) of crop ‘x’, respectively, while pr is the price (us$ t–1) of rice. 2.6.3 land utilization efficiency (lue) the lue was calculated as the sum of the growth duration days of all crops in the cropping sequence by 365 days [18] as of equation (2). (2) here, ∑dc denotes the sum duration (days) of all crops in the system. 2.6.4 production efficiency (pe) the pe was computed by dividing the overall economic yield on a rice equivalent basis by sum of the growth duration days of all crops [18] as of equation (3). (3) here, the rey and ∑dc denote the rice equivalent yield and the sum duration of all crops in the system 2.6.5 economics the gross return, gross margin, and benefit cost ratios were calculated using the partial budgeting approach [19]. the data on crop measurement parameters for each year were analyzed statistically using the international rice research institute developed star (statistical tool for agricultural research) software [20], and mean comparisons were done using dmrt at the 5% level [21]. 52 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 3. results 3.1 effect of crop establishment methods on the yield traits and yield of rice data revealed that ca significantly yielded about 16% more paddy than ta, which might be influenced by the 21% and 37% higher number of tillers m–2 and grains panicle–1, respectively in ca although the number of hills m–2, sterile spikelets panicle–1, and 1000-grain weight were not impacted (table 2). it was also showed that rice cultivation under ca boosted the profit (bcr) by 24% than the ta. 3.2 effect of crop establishment methods on the yield traits and yield of wheat data presented in the table 3 showed that about 11% higher number of heads m–2 and 27% higher grains head–1 in ca boosted 31% higher grain yield in ca (4.74 t ha–1) relative to the ta (3.61 t ha–1), while the plant population and 1000-grains weight were not influenced by the crop establishment methods. moreover, the ca earned 36% higher profit over the ta. 3.3 effect of crop establishment methods on the yield traits and yield of mungbean we found 17% higher number of pods plant–1 and a yield increase of about 37% in ca compared to ta (table 4). there was no significant influence of ca and ta on the number of plants m–2 and seeds pod–1, and 1000-seeds weight. data also disclosed that mungbean cultivation under ca boosted the profit by 49% than the ta. 3.4 effect of crop establishment methods on the system productivity, land usage efficiency (lue) and production efficiency (pe) the ca method increased the productivity of the r– w and r–w–m systems by 27% and 32%, respectively than the ta (table 5). when mungbean was included, the productivity of the r–w system increased its production by 43%. the r–w–m system under ta had the greatest lue (99.45%), followed by the same system under ca (92.05%), and the r–w system under ta (81.91%), while the r–w system under ca had the lowest lue (76.71%). additionally, data indicated that the r–w–m system in ca had the greatest pe (53 kg–1 ha–1 day–1), followed by the r–w system in ca (45.57 kg–1 ha–1 day–1) and the r– w–m system in ta (45.57 kg–1 ha–1 day–1). while the r– w system with the lowest pe (33.14 kg–1 ha–1 day–1) was discovered under ta. ca’s pe was, on average, was 60% more than ta’s. 3.5 effect of crop establishment methods on the economics of crop production data presented in the table 6 revealed that the ta and ca method exerted a significant influence on the costs of crop production. the ca was the most cost-efficient method where savings were attributable to tillage operations (66.3%, 58.1%, 57.6%), weeding expenses (59.2%, 24.5%, and 42.2%), and labor needs (25.1%, 27.2%, and 31.3%) in rice, wheat, and mungbean, respectively. table 2. treatment effect on the yield traits and yield of rice treatments hills m–2 (no.) tillers m–2 (no.) grains panicle–1 (no.) sterile spikelets panicle–1 (no.) 1000-grains weight (g) grain yield (t ha–1) bcr ta 26 239b 145b 35 29.60 5.41b 1.07b ca 26 288a 199a 26 32.48 6.23a 1.33a lsd (p ≤ 0.05) 1.93 6.68 8.52 3.66 3.40 0.17 0.11 ta: traditional agriculture, ca: conservation agriculture, bcr: befit cost ratio, lsd: least significant difference. the means with similar letters do not differ significantly at 5% level of significance table 3. treatment effect on yield traits and yield of wheat treatments plants m–2 (no.) heads m–2 (no.) grains head–1 (no.) 1000-grains weight (g) grain yield (t ha–1) bcr ta 164 293b 31b 44.87 3.61b 1.12b ca 167 324a 39a 46.13 4.74a 1.52a lsd (p ≤ 0.05) 15.25 5.52 4.54 2.50 0.14 0.11 ta: traditional agriculture, ca: conservation agriculture, bcr: befit cost ratio, lsd: least significant difference. the means with similar letters do not differ significantly at 5% level of significance 53 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 4. discussion in the present study, ca increased the productivity of rice–wheat–mungbean system than the ta. the production gaps between these two practices might be explained by variations in yield and yield-contributing characters of individual crops such as the number of effective tillers m–2 and grains panicle–1 of rice; the number of heads m–2 and grains head–1 of wheat; and the number of pods plant–1 of mungbean. the higher output in ca is consistent with prior research [14], which revealed that the higher crops yield in minimum tillage (mt) compared to plow tillage (pt) might be attributed to changes in soil characteristics caused by mt’s beneficial effect on grain production. increased soil porosity and greater moisture conservation supported root growth, whereas increased nutrient absorption boosted grain production [22]. the ca’s physical soil environment is more favorable to crop production than the pt’s [23]. additionally, it was reported that the lower crop yields in ta than ca were caused by the formation of the surface crust in pt [24], which resulted in the loss of structure and homogenization of the cultivated soil layer. it results in discontinuity of the nutrient and water conducting pores and compaction of the soil beneath the cultivated layer due to mechanical pressure from tractors. moreover, one previous study observed that increasing crop yield in ca may be influenced by the improve soil fertility by conserving soil and water and sequestering organic carbon in farmed soils, hence lowering extremes of waterlogging and drought [25]. furthermore, the higher production in ca might be related to improved soil structable 4. treatment effect on the mungbean yield treatments plants m–2 (no.) pods plant–1 (no.) seeds pod–1 (no.) 1000-seeds weight (g) seed yield (t ha–1) bcr ta 60 42b 10 40.6 1.30b 1.23b ca 63 49a 11 41.3 1.79a 1.83a lsd (p ≤ 0.05) 15.25 3.24 0.56 0.89 0.21 0.07 ta: traditional agriculture, ca: conservation agriculture, bcr: befit cost ratio, lsd: least significant difference. the means with similar letters do not differ significantly at 5% level of significance table 5. effect of crop establishment methods on the rey, lue) and pe treatments cropping system rey (t ha–1) growth duration (days) lue (%) pe (kg–1 ha–1 day–1)r w m total ta r–w 9.91d 153 146 299 81.91c 33.14d r–w–m 13.57b 153 150 60 363 99.45a 37.38c ca r–w 12.76bc 142 139 280 76.71d 45.57b r–w–m 17.81a 142 139 54 337 92.05b 53.00a lsd (p ≤ 0.05) 0.91 4.07 3.96 ta: traditional agriculture, ca: conservation agriculture, rey: rice equivalent yield, r: rice, w: wheat, m: mungbean, lue: land utilization efficiency, pe: production efficiency, lsd: least significant difference at 5% level of significant. the means with similar letters do not differ significantly at p ≤ 0.05. the market price of wheat, mungbean, and rice @ 271.14, 589.71, and 209.50 us$ ha–1, respectively. 1 us$ = 86.42 bdt on 05 april 2022. table 6. effect of crop establishment method on the major inputs requirements in rice, wheat, and mungbean crops & treatments tillage weed control labors ta ca % cost savings in ca ta ca % cost savings in ca ta ca % cost savings in ca rice 117.9 39.8 66.3 336.8 137.6 59.2 191 143 25.1 wheat 88.5 36.4 58.1 135.2 102.1 24.5 182 132 27.2 mungbean 70.9 30.1 57.6 87.2 50.4 42.2 164 112 31.3 costs are in us$ per ha basis, 1 us$ = 86.42 bdt on 05 april 2022. ta: traditional agriculture, ca: conservation agriculture 54 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 ture and stability, which would allow for better drainage and water holding capacity [26]. increased infiltration rates and favorable moisture dynamics permitted a 30% improvement in maize production [27], due to a 25%, 18%, and 7% increase in soil organic carbon, total soil nitrogen, and phosphorus accumulation in the st in ca compared to the pt in ta, respectively [28]. these findings have implications for a better understanding of how conservation tillage improves soil quality and sustainability in ca practice. while hand weeding ta, physical shock or interruption in the normal growth of agricultural plants occurred, which may temporarily impair crop development and, subsequently, output may be lowered [29,30]. on the other hand, herbicides applied in ca had little impact on crops. herbicides applied at field rates have a hormetic effect on crop growth and development, which may have resulted in increased crop yields in this study [31]. the author found that glyphosate may accelerate plant growth, induce the accumulation of shikimic acid, increase photosynthesis, and open stomata, all of which led to increased seed production by shortening the plant life cycle. however, that glyphosate may help prevent wheat rust infections, hence improving grain production [32]. glyphosate has been shown to boost total biomass growth by 25% when paired with pendimethalin in crop plants [33], while carfentrazoneethyl+isoproturon has been shown to improve total biomass growth in wheat, resulting in a higher number of tillers per m2 area and a higher yield [34]. the favorable impact of the herbicides employed may have resulted in more rice, mungbean, and wheat grain output in ca than in ta in the present investigation. furthermore, the higher productivity in ca might be related to the residues’ positive contribution on soil fertility, which is linked to increased crop output. this result is congruent with the results of a study conducted in china [35], which showed that recorded residue returns increased average crop output by roughly 5% as compared to nostraw treatment. another study found that applying 50% stubble mulch increased rice production by 3% [36] and wheat yield by 4% [37]. increased crop residue retention enhances soil porosity, decreases compaction and bulk density, and improves soil aeration and productivity under dry circumstances [38]. crop leftover increases the organic matter, accessible minerals, fulvic acid, and humic acid levels in the soil, as well as the rate of potassium release. furthermore, it lowers the requirement for synthetic fertilizers, improves the soil environment, increases plant leaf area, and enhances photosynthetic material transfer to grain, all of which increase crop yield and quality [39,40]. crop residues are high in organic matter, which can serve as a carbon source for soil microorganisms, stimulate microbial activity, improve soil fertility, promote earthworm reproduction, and increase the diversity of soil arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi [41], all of which contribute to increased crop yield. in this research, 50% residue generated more rice tillers m–2 and grains panicle–1, wheat heads m–2 and grains head–1, and mungbean pods plant–1, which could be linked to agricultural residues’ favorable impact and resulted in enhanced rice, wheat, and mungbean yields, and ultimately system productivity. according to the economic assessment of this study, ca profited the most over ta. the differential in bcr might be attributed to disparities in grain yield and cultivation expenses in ta and ca, respectively, in pt and st. savings may be attributed to tillage, weeding, and labor expenditures required in all crops (table 7). this conclusion is consistent with previous study, which predicted 70% [42] and 49% [43] savings in land preparation in st and pt, respectively. the st had the lower plowing cost (ranging from us$30.1~39.8 ha–1) due to reduced tillage intensity and fuel use, whereas the pt had the higher price (ranging from us$70.9~117.9 ha–1). this conclusion is consistent with prior research that found a 67% reduction on land preparation expenses in reduced tillage, rt (us$ 36 ha–1) over conventional tillage (us$ 191 ha–1) due to single plowing and fewer fuel use compared to pt [44]. st reduced fuel and labor requirements in field preparation and fertilizer application due to fewer tillage operations and tsp fertilizer applied with vmp during tillage. due to the softness of the soil in st, employees had minimal difficulty transplanting plants by inundating the area. the vmp sowed wheat and mungbean at the same time during the st operation in the ca technique. moreover, herbicidal weed control provided better net benefits in ca than manual three-times hand weeding in ta. this finding is consistent with prior studies, which found that herbicide weed treatment saves 100% more than manual weeding [45]. furthermore, past research has demonstrated that the higher weeding costs associated with human weeding are economically unproductive when compared to herbicidal weed treatment. hand weeding may be efficiently replaced by the application of an appropriate herbicide [46]. furthermore, using herbicides to control weeds under ca yielded larger net benefits than three manual weeding procedures under ta. manual weeding was required three times in ta, costing us$336.7 ha–1, us$58.1 ha–1, and us$87.2 ha–1 in rice, wheat, and mungbean, respectively. all herbicides, on the other hand, cost just us$137.6 ha–1, us$102.1 ha–1, and us$50.4 ha–1, respectively. as a result, herbicides saved 59.2%, 24.5%, and 50.4% of the cost of hand weeding in ta, respectively. findings of past re55 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 search corroborate our findings by showing that the greater expenses associated with manual weeding are unprofitable when compared to herbicidal weed management [47,48]. furthermore, rice, wheat, and mungbean production (from sowing to seed storage) in the pt needed 191, 182, and 164 person-days ha–1 of work, respectively. in ca, the figures were 143 person-days, 132 person-days, and 112 person-days, respectively. therefore, ca reduced labor needs by 25.1%, 27.2%, and 31.3%, respectively, as compared to ta. in this research, this reduction enabled ca to generate larger economic returns than ta. our findings are consistent with prior studies demonstrating that one-third of work in ca procedures is harsh compared to ta [49,50]. result found that the productivity of the rice–wheat– mungbean system was about 43% higher than that of the rice–wheat system. incorporating mungbean into the rice– wheat system, which generates an average yield of 1.23 t ha–1 in ta and 1.60 t ha–1 in ca, may increase productivity. this finding is consistent with prior studies, which found that including one or more short-duration crops into established cropping patterns increases system production efficiency [51-53]. cropping sequence intensification using mungbean as a grain legume in the current r–w system resulted in the largest land use and production efficiency of sequence. this conclusion backs up the results of previous study, who observed that including blackgram and mungbean into the wheat–rice cropping sequence boosted system productivity, gross return, gross margin, benefitcost ratio, and production efficiency. this farming series provided 57% greater wheat equivalent yield than the prior wheat–rice system [54]. every year, the wheat–rice agricultural method produces a significant number of crop residues. wheat and rice straw have traditionally been harvested from fields for use as cow fodder and a variety of other applications such as animal bedding, home thatching, and fuel [55]. it has been established that including legume crops into the system as green manure or grain legumes is more beneficial than keeping a rice–wheat sequence [6]. legume crops may help cereal-based farming systems sustain long-term productivity by fixing atmospheric nitrogen, improving soil fertility, and improving soil fertility. it is well known that the rice– wheat cropping system may be modified by replacing grain legumes such as mungbean for rice [7]. differences in efficiencies in the land use and production might be a result of the variations in crop growth length (days). crops that grow more rapidly in the ca system than in the ta system have a lower lue and pe. it has extended the scope to incorporate other crops with a growth period of roughly 30 days, such as leafy vegetables: amaranthus gangeticus l., spinacia oleracea l., and others, by adjusting the planting dates of rice, wheat, and mungbean in the r–w–m system. such improvements have attributed a significant productivity with a better sustainable profit, land utilization efficiency, and production efficiency of the rice–wheat–mungbean cropping system under conservation agriculture practice: single tillage, which sequentially applied a pre-plant herbicide, then a preand post-emergence herbicide, and retained 50% crop residue than the current traditional agriculture practice under rice–wheat system. 5. conclusions conservation agriculture is an innovative technique to cultivate crops with less inputs. when combined with efficient herbicides and residue recycling, single tillage was a lucrative alternative to the traditional laborious crop cultivation practice by increasing the yield of rice, wheat and mungbean by 15.2%, 31.3% and 37.6% and the bcr by 24.3%, 35.7% and 38.8% higher profit, respectively. moreover, practice of rice–wheat–mungbean system was 43% more profitable over rice–wheat system. in the present study, the practice of conservation agriculture under rice–wheat–mungbean system was expedient over the existing traditional agriculture practice of rice–wheat system. because the rice–wheat–mungbean system utilized the land more efficiently with the maximum crop production efficiency. this practice has also extended the scope to incorporate other leafy vegetable crops with a growth period of roughly 30 days. to validate this result, it is recommended to practice conservation agriculture under the diversified cropping system across the country. funding we acknowledge the australian centre for international agricultural research’s (aciar) conservation agriculture project lwr/2010/080 research funds. conflict of interest the authors disclosed no possible conflicts of interest. references [1] li, f., zhang, x., xu, d., et al., 2022. no-tillage promotes wheat seedling growth and grain yield compared with plow–rotary tillage in a rice– wheat rotation in the high rainfall region in china. agronomy. 12(4), 865. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12040865 [2] kumar, d., hamd-alla, w., shivay, y., et al., 2021. diversification of rice–wheat cropping system to sus56 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 tain the productivity and profitability. indian journal of agricultural sciences. 91(4), 597-601. 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herbicides on weed control efficiency and yield of wheat. journal of science foundation. 12(2), 27-33. doi: https://doi.org/10.3329/jsf.v12i2.27734 [35] lu, x., 2020. a meta-analysis of the effects of crop residue return on crop yields and water use efficiency. plos one. 15(4), e0231740. doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0231740 [36] hossain, m., begum, m., rahman, m.m., et al., 2021. influence of non-puddled transplanting and residues of previous mustard on rice (oryza sativa l.). international journal of agricultural sciences and technology. 1(1), 8-14. doi: https://doi.org/10.51483/ijagst.1.1.2021.8-14 [37] hossain, m., begum, m., hashem, a., et al., 2020. weed control in strip planted wheat under conservation agriculture practice is more effective than conventional tillage. scientific journal of crop science. 9(6), 438-450. doi: https://doi.org/10.14196/sjcs.v9i6.1593 [38] akhtar, k., wang, w., ren, g., et al., 2018. changes in soil enzymes, soil properties, and maize crop 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establishment: on-farm performance and farmers’ perceptions. plant production science. 22(1), 23-45. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/1343943x.2018.1564335 [43] islam, a.k.m.s., hossain, m.m., saleque, m.a., 2015. effect of unpuddled transplanting on the growth and yield of dry season rice (oryza sativa l.) in high barind tract. the agriculturists. 12(2), 91-97. doi: https://doi.org/10.3329/agric.v12i2.21736 [44] hossain, m., begum, m., bell, r., 2020. on-farm evaluation of conservation agriculture practice on weed control and yield of wheat in northern bangladesh. current research in agricultural sciences. 7(2), 84-99. doi: https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.68.2020.72.84.99 [45] islam, a.k.m.m., popy, f.s., hasan, a.k., et al., 2017. efficacy and economics of herbicidal weed management in monsoon rice of bangladesh: weed management in monsoon rice of bangladesh. journal of scientific agriculture. 1, 275-293. doi: https://doi.org/10.25081/jsa.2017.v1.834 [46] islam, a.m., hia, m.a.u.h., sarkar, s.k., et al., 2018. herbicide based weed management in aromatic rice of bangladesh. journal of the bangladesh agricultural university. 16(1), 31-40. doi: https://doi.org/10.3329/jbau.v16i1.36478 [47] muoni, t., rusinamhodzi, l., rugare, j.t., et al., 2014. effect of herbicide application on weed flora under conservation agriculture in zimbabwe. crop protection. 66, 1-7. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2014.08.008 [48] rugare, j.t., pieterse, p.j., mabasa, s., 2019. effect of short-term maize–cover crop rotations on weed emergence, biomass and species composition under conservation agriculture. south african journal of plant and soil. 36(5), 329-337. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/02571862.2019.1594419 [49] nhamo, n., lungu, o.n., 2017. opportunities for smallholder farmers to benefit from conservation agricultural practices. in: smart technologies for sustainable smallholder agriculture: upscaling in developing countries. elsevier inc. pp. 145-163. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-8105214.00007-4 [50] hossain, m.m., begum, m., hashem, a., et al., 2021. mulching and weed management effects on the performance of rice (oryza sativa l.) transplanted in non-puddled soil. journal of wastes and biomass management. 3(1), 13-21. doi: https://doi.org/10.26480/jwbm.01.2021.13.21 [51] salahin, n., jahiruddin, m., islam, m.r., et al., 2021. establishment of crops under minimal soil disturbance and crop residue retention in rice-based cropping system: yield advantage, soil health improvement, and economic benefit. land. 10, 581. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/land10060581 [52] naab, j.b., mahama, g.y., yahaya, i., et al., 2017. conservation agriculture improves soil quality, crop yield, and incomes of smallholder farmers in north western ghana. frontiers in plant science. 8(996), 1-15. doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2017.00996 [53] hossain, m.m., begum, m., hashem, a., et al., 2020. interactive effects of strip planting, herbicides and wheat straw mulch on weed control and yield of mungbean in northern bangladesh. international journal of scientific research in multidisciplinary studies. 6(12), 1-9. doi: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4889117 [54] hossain, m., sarkar, m., jahiruddin, m., et al., 2016. productivity and partial budget analysis in wheat– rice sequences as influenced by integrated plant nutrition system and legume crops inclusion. bangladesh journal of agricultural research. 41(1), 17-39. doi: https://doi.org/10.3329/bjar.v41i1.27665 [55] bhatt, r., meena, r.s., hossain, a., 2022. input use efficiency in rice–wheat cropping systems to manage the footprints for food and environmental security. in: bhatt r, meena rs, hossain a, editors. input use efficiency for food and environmental security. springer, singapore. pp. 1-31. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-5199-1_1 59 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: denbela hidosa, livestock research directorate, jinka agricultural research center, jinka, ethiopia; email: denbelahidosa@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.758 received: 28 october 2022; received in revised form: 8 december 2022; accepted: 16 december 2022; published: 30 december 2022 citation: adane, z., hidosa, d., 2022. cattle marketing system in bena-tsemay district of south omo, southwestern ethiopia. research on world agricultural economy. 3(4), 758. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.758 research article cattle marketing system in bena-tsemay district of south omo, south-western ethiopia zelalem adane1 denbela hidosa2* 1. livestock for livelihood (l4l) project, jinka coordination office, farm africa, jinka, ethiopia 2. livestock research directorate, jinka agricultural research center, jinka, ethiopia abstract: the absence of information on cattle marketing systems is a major challenge for cattle producers and policymakers in ethiopia. therefore, this study was conducted in the bena-tsemay district with the aim of assessing the cattle marketing system. the household survey involved the interviewing of 150 households of eight kebeles, which were purposefully selected from the three cattle production systems. the qualitative parameters, such as cattle market infrastructures, cattle transportation facilities, cattle market information, cattle marketing channels, cattle market actors, and the extent of extension service in the cattle marketing system, were analyzed using non-parametric methods, while the means of the quantitative parameters, such as cattle price and a number of cattle supplies, were analyzed using a one-way anova of spss, version 20. the results revealed that the majority (73.2%) of the cattle keepers in three production systems sold their cattle; while very few (24.8%) did not. approximately 58.33% of respondents said they bought and sold cattle at the local market using eyeball estimation, while only 12.2% used a bartering system. the majority of cattle keepers (69.30%) have access to cattle market information, while a few of them (30.7%) do not have access to cattle market information. the prices of selling and purchasing cattle were determined via peaceful negotiations between cattle sellers and traders (66.7%), while a small percentage (33.3%) was determined only by the cattle seller’s decision. the lack of cattle market and transportation facilities, the lack of cattle market price promotion centers, the lack of credit services, and the lack of capacity buildings were the major cattle marketing constraints. thus, based on the results, the authors concluded that capacity-building and development efforts should be designed for cattle market transport facilities, legal cattle market promotion centers, credit services, and cattle feeding and health improvement strategies. keywords: cattle; cattle marketing; production systems; market channel; marketing prices mailto:denbelahidosa@gmail.com http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.758 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.758 http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5253-9735 60 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 1. introduction ethiopia has approximately 70 million cattle, which have been reared in pastoral, agro-pastoral, and mixed crop-livestock production systems. the pastoral production system is one in which pastoralists extensively rely only on cattle; there is no crop production practice in this system. the agro-pastoral production system is characterized by the dominance of livestock husbandry and limited crop production practice, while the mixed croplivestock system is the dominant livestock production system in which crops and livestock play interdependent roles, with livestock providing draught power and manure for crop agriculture while crop residues provide feed for the livestock. of the 70 million cattle population, about 68,180,000 (97.4%) are indigenous cattle, 1,610,000 (2.3%) are hybrid cattle, and 210,000 (0.3%) are exotic breeds [1]. cattle are the leading livestock species in the country and have a tremendous role in being a source of cash income, food (meat and milk), fulfilling cultural obligations, and delivering about 68 million tons of organic fertilizer and almost 617 million days of animal traction to 3.85 million rural households in the highlands and 7.15 million rural households in the lowlands [2]. the cattle consist of cows, oxen, heifers, and steers and have the capability to adapt to the varying agroecological zones of ethiopia to produce milk, meat, and traction [3,4]. it is evident that the average lactation period and milk yield per cow per day at the country level is estimated to be about seven months and 1.482 liters, respectively [1]. the beef cattle here refer to all cattle reared exclusively for meat that is used either for home consumption or for sale [1]. of the annually produced meat from the beef, about 56.9% was used for household consumption, 29.41% was sold at the local market, 1.9% was paid for wages in kind, and 11.8% was used for other products [5]. despite the huge share of the cattle population in the country, the economic and social merits that have been generated from the cattle production systems in ethiopia are generally very low due to different technical and non-technical constraints [1,2]. the lack of much-updated information on the cattle marketing system related to cattle market infrastructures, cattle market transportation facilities, the cattle market information delivery system, cattle handling facilities at the abattoir and export level, the absence of a market-oriented cattle production system, excessive cross-border illegal trade, and stiff competition are among the major nontechnical constraints that have been challenging the cattle marketing system in ethiopia [6,7]. the market is defined as the set of actual and potential buyers of a product, while marketing is defined as the performance of all business activities involved in the flow of goods and services from the point of initial production until they are in the hands of ultimate consumers [8]. the “market price” is the quantity of payment or compensation given by one party to another in return for goods or services [9]. the marketing channel is an organized network of various agencies and institutions that, when combined, perform all of the activities required to connect producers and consumers in order to complete marketing tasks [10]. similarly, in the benatseamy district where this study was conducted, there is a lack of updated information on cattle market infrastructures, cattle transportation facilities, cattle market information sources, cattle marketing channels, cattle market actors, cattle marketing prices, the source of cattle supply, the extent of extension service in promoting on-time cattle market prices, the credit service delivery system, and cattle market constraints due to the absence of capacitybuilding and development interventions. understanding the cattle marketing system and cattle market constraints is therefore critical for developing cattle marketing system development strategies for interventions that would improve the efficiency of the cattle marketing system in a way that would benefit livestock producers, traders, government organizations, and non-governmental organizations (ngos). thus, the objective of the study was to assess the effect of the production systems and seasons on the cattle marketing system. 2. materials and methods the assessment study on the cattle marking system was conducted in the bena-tseamy district which is indicated in figure 1. the bena-tseamy district is located between 5°0’1” and 5°73’0” feet north latitude and 36°38’0” and 37°07’0” feet east longitude in the south omo region of southwestern ethiopia. the district is characterized by semi-arid and arid climatic conditions, with mean annual rainfall averaging from 350 mm to 838 mm. the long rainy season began in march and lasted until june, while the short rainy season lasted from september to october [11]. the average ambient temperature of the study area ranged from 26 °c to 35 °c, and the district is predominantly covered with different masses of acacia, grewia, and solanum woody species [12,13]. agro-pastoralism is the most common land-use system [13,14], with cattle and goats grazing and browsing on more than 48% of the district’s total land area [12]. rain-fed agriculture is practiced, and sorghum, maize, millet, beans, wheat, barley, and vegetables are the major crops grown in the study area [12]. the bena are an ethnic group that lives in the higher altitudes of the bena-tsemay district and is more involved in crop production, whereas the tsemay are an ethnic group that has practiced pastoralism and lives in the lower altitudes 61 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 of the bena-tsemay district and relies on livestock production [12]. the estimated human population of the benatsemay district is about 86,691, of which 44,591 are male and 42,100 are female [15], and the population of livestock is estimated to be 525,941 cattle, 211,818 sheep, 910,252 goats, 235,363 poultry, and 36,387 donkeys [16]. 3. study design 3.1 sample selection procedure and sample size a multistage sampling procedure was employed to select the study kebeles. for the first stage, 34 kebeles (the smallest administrative subunit) of the bena-tsemay district were stratified into three categories based on the cattle production systems that prevailed in the district (pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, and a mixed crop-livestock system). in the second stage, a purposive sampling technique was used to select the sample study kebeles from each cattle production system based on the number of cattle they supplied to the cattle market, their cattle marketing experience and potential for the cattle emanated from a different place to market. thus, from the pastoral production system, three kebeles (sitemba, luka, and anesonda); from the agro-pastoral production system, four kebeles (argo, shaba, gurdo, and sile); and one from the mixed crop-livestock production system (chali) were acknowledged for the face-to-face household survey. finally, a simple random sampling technique was used to select households from each selected kebele that have experience in the cattle marketing system. the sample size from each kebele was determined based on proportion to the total human population in each selected kebele, and thus, a total of 150 households (57 hhs from pastoral, 55 hhs from agro-pastoral, and 38 hhs from mixed croplivestock production systems) were selected according to the sampling technique [17]. 2 2 ))((* d qp no z= → )/1(1 nno no n + = where, no = desired sample size according to cochran’s (1977) when population greater than 10,000; n1 = finite population correction factors population less than 10,000; z = standard normal deviation (1.96 for 95% confidence level); p = 0.11 (proportion of the population to be included in the sample i.e. 11%); q = 1-0.11 i.e. (0.89); d = is degree of accuracy desired (0.05), 5% error term. 3.2 data collection methods 3.2.1 household survey primary data were collected by interviewing the households using a semi-structured questionnaire. during the face-to-face interviews, respondents raised important points such as cattle marketing practices, cattle marketing locations, access to cattle market information, source of cattle market information, main actors in the cattle market, cattle marking prices, cattle price determiners, cattle market efficiency, and cattle marketing channel. the rapid cattle market assessment study was conducted at the five cattle marketing centers (key-afer, alduba, kako, woito, and luka). figure 2 indicated cattle in alduba during the cattle market monitoring study. figure 1. map of study area. 62 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 figure 2. alduba market monitoring during cross sectional study. 3.2.2 focus group discussions (fgds) a focus group discussion (fgd) is a qualitative research method and data collection technique in which a selected group of people discusses a given topic or issue in-depth. in each selected kebele, one fgd was conducted by using a checklist prepared for this purpose. the participants in the focus group discussions were comprised of 12-25 interviewees, of which about 6-10 were women’s households. the participants for fgd were drawn from pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, farmers from crop-livestock production systems, and local collectors, medium traders, large traders, and butcher men with the aid of development agents based on their cattle marketing experiences. respondents raised key points during the fgd about cattle market infrastructures, cattle market information sources, cattle marketing channels, cattle market actors, cattle marketing prices, and cattle supply sources which are indicated in figure 3. figure 3. fgd with respondents during cross sectional study in shaba aregmenda kebele. 3.2.3 key informants interviews key informant interviews are qualitative, in-depth interviews with people who know what is going on in the community to collect information from a wide range of people, including community leaders and professionals. the three key informant interviews were conducted with developmental agents, livestock production experts, and marketing experts based on their knowledge of cattle marketing and their willingness to cooperate in providing information to the cattle marketing system. 3.3 methods of data analysis data collected from the face-to-face survey were coded using the ms excel program. the collected data from the qualitative parameters were analyzed using nonparametric methods, while the means of the quantitative parameters were analyzed by using one-way anova using spss, version 20. the following models were used to analyze the effects of cattle production systems and cattle marketing seasons on cattle marketing systems and prices in the bena-tsemay district. model 1: the statistical model for the analysis of the effect of livestock production systems on cattle marketing systems: yijk = µ + psi + eijk; where yij = cattle marketing system; µ = overall population means; psi = the effect of i th cattle production system (i = pastoral, agro-pastoral and mixed crop-livestock); eijk = random residual error. model 2: the statistical model for the analysis of the effect of cattle marketing seasons on prices of cattle: yij = µ + si + eij where yij = the observation on prices of cattle at different seasons; µ = overall; population mean; si = effect of i th seasons (i = dry and wet); eij = random residual error. 4. results and discussion 4.1 purchasing and selling of cattle the purchasing and selling practices of cattle in the bena-tsemay district are presented in table 1. the majority (73.2%) of the households with pastoral, agro-pastoral, and mixed livestock production systems reported that they sold cattle, while a few (26.8%) did not. those who sold cattle were due to settle government expenses, cover social obligations, cover health bills, buy replacement stock, restock, and cover school fees. more respondents from agro-pastoralists and crop-livestock production systems participated in cattle-selling practices than pastoral 63 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 production systems. the respondents of the former of the two production systems that sold the cattle reasoned out that they had more access to market information and were partly engaged in pasture-crop-residue-based cattle fattening operations. respondents from the pastoral production system (35.10%) who did not sell cattle argued that cattle are a source of food (milk and meat) for their family members as well as an indicator of who is the wealthiest in the community. as a result, they preferred to increase the cattle population rather than decrease it by selling the cattle. in line with the present study, the studies [18] and teshager et al. [19] indicated that the major reasons for the selling of cattle were to settle government expenses, fulfill social obligations, cover health bills, buy replacement stock, restock, and cover school fees. regarding the purchase of cattle, about 51.3% reported they purchased cattle from the local market, while about 48.7% replied that they did not participate in cattle purchasing from the local market. more respondents were involved in purchasing cattle in the pastoral production system than in the agropastoral and crop-livestock production systems. they reasoned that they were involved in purchasing more cattle in order to increase the number of cattle as an indicator of the wealthiest members of the community. the fewer respondents that did not participate in cattle purchasing from agro-pastoral and crop-livestock production systems as compared to pastoral production systems were due to more grazing land being converted into cropland, so they faced a shortage of grazing land. similarly, the study [13] showed that in the bena-tsemay district, most of the communities have transitioned from purely pastoralist livelihoods into agro-pastoralist livelihoods. as a result, a large portion of the former browsing and grazing rangelands is being converted to farmland. 4.2 cattle buying system the cattle buying system in the study area is presented in table 2. the majority of pastoral, agro-pastoral, and mixed crop-livestock production households (58.33%) reported that they bought and sold cattle from the local market using eyeball estimation, while only a small percentage (12.2%) used the bartering system, and the majority of respondents used both methods. according to the group discussants, eyeball estimation was the preferred method used by all buyers in the study area due to a lack of weighing facilities, and producers (sellers) had no skill in reading weighing scales. the bartering methods of price determination refer to an act of trading goods or services between two or more parties without the use of money. according to the findings of this study, cattle selling or buying methods using bartering systems are more prevalent in pastoral production systems than in agro-pastoral production systems, but not in crop-livestock production systems. as a result, the respondents from pastoral areas have reported that they have less access to education and cattle marketing information. as a result, they exchange cattle with goats or with grains. similarly, different scholars reported that eyeball pricing was practiced in the informal marketing system in many parts of ethiopia [20-22]. 4.3 cattle marketing place the places where the cattle are marketed in benatsemay woreda are illustrated in figure 4. in the benatsemay district, there are about five cattle marketing places, such as key-afer, kako, alduba, woyito, and luka, which are legalized. during market monitoring time, with the exception of the key-afer, alduba, and kako markets, the village markets such as woyito and luka are undeveloped and characterized by poor market infrastructure or are not fenced. however, key-afer and kako markets were fenced with locally available woody materials, while the alduba market is well developed and has cattle loading facilities that were constructed by the lowland land resilience project (llrp). the majority of table 1. purchasing and selling practice of cattle in bena-tsemay district. production systems variable pastoral (n = 57) agropastoral (n = 55) crop-livestock (n = 38) over all (n =150) x2 p-value do you sell cattle? 1.3 0.52 • yes 64.90 76.40 78.30 73.20 • no 35.10 23.60 21.70 26.80 do you buy cattle? • yes 56.40 54.40 39.50 51.30 • no 43.60 45.60 60.50 48.70 the value observed between the three cattle production system are significantly different at (x2 < 0.001); x2 = pearson chi-square; n = number of respondents. 64 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 respondents (68%) of pastoral, agro-pastoral, and mixed crop-livestock production systems reported that they purchased and sold their cattle in the legalized markets (keyafer kako, alduba) and however, very few respondents (6%) purchased and sold cattle within the village market such as woyito, and luka, which is not well organized. in all identified marketplaces, there is only one market day per week. consequently, the kay-afer market will be held on thursday, the kako and luka markets on monday, the alduba market on tuesday, and the woyito market on saturday. legalized cattle marketing was more prevalent in the crop-livestock production system than in the pastoral and agro-pastoral systems. on the other hand, in the pastoral production system, more cattle were sold at the village market than crop-livestock, while in the agro-pastoral production system, there were no cattle sold or bought at the village market. as a result of the present study, the studies [18,23] demonstrated that the cattle marketing systems in harshin and borana districts were undeveloped and characterized by inadequate market infrastructure, and cattle were marketed in open spaces. similarly, the study reported by kassa et al. [24] indicated that the cattle marketing place in the moretna jiru district of north shoa did not have any shade or fence, but it had a boundary with other livestock, which did not have any fence or mark. 14 0 2.6 6 17.5 27.3 36.8 26 68.4 72.7 60.5 68 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 p a c o village legal market both figure 4. cattle marketing places in bena-tsemay district. 4.4 access to cattle market information as indicated in figure 5, the majority of respondents (69.30%) from pastoral, agro-pastoral, and mixed croplivestock production systems replied that they have access to cattle market information, while a few of them (30.7%) reported that they do not have access to cattle market information. access to market information refers to whether the actors obtain information on current cattle prices from available public media, co-farmers, friends, and farmers’ organizations [19]. market information is dynamic in order to reduce information uncertainties at the production site, and it is required by producers in their production planning and marketing strategy [19]. similarly, in the borena and ilu aba bora areas, most of the cattle producers get market information before taking their livestock to marketplaces, and they decide to sell at a good price [18,19]. 68.4 65.8 72.7 69.3 31.6 34.2 27.3 30.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 pastoral agro-pastoral cro-livestock over all have acess to cattle market have no access to cattle market figure 5. access to market information and source of market for cattle market in bena-tsemay district. 4.5 source of cattle market information the source of cattle market information is presented in figure 6. regarding the source of cattle market information, the majority of respondents (30.7%) in the pastoral, agro-pastoral, and mixed crop-livestock systems got it from friends and relatives, while only a few (12.70%) got it from the previous week’s market in the study area. similarly, borana pastoralists used previous market information, relatives and neighbors, extension agents, cooperatives, and traders as sources of market information before selling cattle to the local market [18]. table 2. purchasing and selling practice of cattle in bena-tsemay district. production systems variable pastoral (n = 57) agropastoral (n = 55) crop-livestock (n = 38) over all (n =150) x2 p-value buying cattle based on 3.8 <0.001 • eyeball estimation 33.30a 41.70b 100c 58.33 • bartering system 21.10a 14.50b 0.00 12.20 • both 45.60a 43.60a 0.00 29.73 the value observed between the three cattle production system are significantly different at (x2 < 0.001); x2 = pearson chi-square; n = number of respondents. 65 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 40.4 30.9 15.8 30.7 10.5 10.9 18.4 12.7 31.6 30.9 34.2 30.7 17.5 27.3 31.6 26 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 pastoral agro-pastoral cro-livestock over all friend market relative market&friend figure 6. source of cattle market information in benatsemay district. 4.6 buyer and seller linkage as indicated in figure 7, the majority of cattle sellers (59.30%) were linked to cattle buyers in the study area through direct contact and brokers at the marketing place, while about 40.70% of respondents replied that they were directly contacted by cattle buyers in the market place during market day. in terms of production systems, cattle sellers from the agro-pastoral production system were contacted directly by cattle buyers or traders in the cattle market more than cattle sellers from the pastoral (36.6%) or crop-livestock (31.6%) production systems, while there was no sole broker role in the cattle marketing system in the three production systems. 36.8 50.9 31.6 40.7 63.2 49.1 68.4 59.3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 pastoral agro-pastoral crop-livestock over all direct broker only direct and broker figure 7. cattle buyer and seller linkage in bena-tsemay district. 4.7 cattle price determination the cattle price determination in the bena-tsemay district is presented in table 3. according to the present study, the prices of selling and purchasing cattle at the market centers were determined through peaceful negotiations between sellers and buyers (66.7%) based on visual estimations of the body weight of cattle, while few (33.33%) of the respondents from pastoral, agro-pastoral, and mixed crop-livestock production systems reported that the selling and buying price of the cattle in the study area was determined only by seller decision. the seller that has decided on the selling price of cattle did so based on previous marketing price information. thus, if the price of the present market is below the price of the previous market, the seller has decided to take their cattle back home, and if the price of the present market is higher than the previous market price, the seller has decided to sell cattle at that price. similarly, cattle prices are mainly determined through negotiations between seller and buyer in the pastoral area of borana zone, southern ethiopia [18,19]. 4.8 impact of seasons on cattle marketing price the seasonal cattle marketing price in the bena-tsemay district is presented in table 4. according to the findings of this study, the pooled cattle marketing price was significantly higher (p < 0.001) during wet seasons, which lasted from mid-march to december, than during dry seasons. in this study, the higher cattle price observed in wet seasons is due to higher rainfall availability across wet seasons, resulting in a sufficient supply of feed from rangeland with good nutritive values to meet cattle requirements, causing the animal to attain a higher body weight and, thus, fetch a higher price. however, in dry seasons, which lasted from january to mid-march, where there is a critical feed and water shortage and thus cattle producers were forced to take their cattle to the market, the selling prices of cattle are significantly lowered. similarly, getachew table 3. cattle price determination in bena-tsemay district. particulars production system pastoral (n = 57) agropastoral (n = 55) crop-livestock (n = 38) over all (n =150) x2 p-value price determination 0.24 0.88 • seller 35.10 30.90 34.20 33.30 • buyer 0 0 0 0 • broker 0 0 0 0 • negotiation b/n seller and buyer 64.90 69.10 65.80 66.70 the value observed between the three production system are not significantly different at (x2 > 0.01); x2 = pearson chi-square; n = number of respondents. 66 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 et al. [25] reported that the body conditions of animals highly influences the price at cattle markets, which indicated that buyers paid a significantly higher price for cattle with excellent body weight than those with poor body condition. in the dry season, the shortage of feed and water may also increase the supply of cattle in the local market and, hence, lower the selling price of cattle as reported [26]. different researchers reported different selling prices of cattle in ethiopia, which are lower than the reported price values from the present study. accordingly, the average selling price for an ox ranges between 4,500 and 6,000 etb in turmi and dimeka districts, while the price of ox in the town of arbaminch ranges from 8,00 to 9,00 etb [27]. the other study [28] indicated that the average selling price of breeding cattle in the sebeta terminal market was 4,880 etb for heifers and bulls, while the selling price of oxen is 6,427 etb, and fikru [23] reported an average selling price of 9,500 etb for cattle in the harshin district of somalia’s regional state. the price of cattle compositions that have been affected by marketing seasons at the key-afer terminal cattle market is presented in figure 8. the result declared that the cattle marketing price decreased from january to mid-march and reached its peak price in april for all categories of cattle. however, it fell again between may and july before beginning a steady rise that culminated in september. it was unusual with the sharp drop in marketing prices of all cattle compositions that got higher prices in december than in october, except for the price of heifers used for breeding purposes, during october and november. the sharply decreased marketing prices of different cattle categories from january to february are due to the critical feed and water shortages from january to midmarch, which forced cattle producers to take their cattle to the market, resulting in the cattle selling prices being significantly lowered. the higher cattle buying capacity of traders in the months of april, september, and december in the study area is due to holy ceremonies and the new year’s festival, which require the supply of large numbers of cattle at local and national markets. table 4. the seasonal cattle marketing price in birr in bena-tsemay woreda. cattle species seasons wet season (mean ± sem) dry season (mean ± sem) overall (mean ± sem) p-value sl • heifer 7,503a ± 63.2 6, 350b ± 53 6, 923 ± 53 < 0.001 *** • bull 11,492a ± 96.6 9, 992b ± 67 10, 737 ± 73 < 0.001 *** • cow 9,689a ± 91.3 8, 214b ± 82 8, 947 ± 75 < 0.001 *** • ox 18, 593a ± 202 16,403b ± 15 17,491 ± 146 < 0.001 *** means with different superscripts (a, b) within across a row in seasons for cattle price are significantly different (p < 0.001); sem = standard error of mean; sl = significance level; etb = ethiopian birr; *** = significantly differed at p = 0.001. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec ca tt le m ar ke t pr ic e in e tb fatten ox fatten cow aged ox aged cow bull heifer figure 8. extent of the prices of various categories of cattle supplied to key-afer cattle market in 2020. 67 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 4.9 marketing routes for cattle the cattle marketing route is a pathway through which producers flow into different market destinations. the key-afer market is the legalized terminal cattle market in the bena-tsemay district for the inflow of cattle population to different destinations. the main source of cattle in the key-afer terminal market is the bush market such as kako, woyito, alduba, luka and dimeka market. according to fgds, there were three cattle market routes identified in the bena-tsemay district: 1) bushmarket > kako/woyito/luka/dimeka/beneta/ alduba > key-afer > modjoexport abattoir; 2) kako/woyito/luka/dimeka/alduba > keyafer > addis ababa; 3) bush market > kako/key-afer > jinka. 4.10 cattle marketing channel a marketing channel is a pre-planned network of various agencies and institutions that, when combined, perform all of the activities required to connect producers with consumers in order to complete marketing tasks [29]. according to respondents, in the bena-tsemay district, there were about 10 cattle marketing channels were identified. these cattle marketing channels began at the cattle production gate and flowed out through various paths to final consumers. these channels represent the full range of available outlets through which cattle move from the different collection points into the terminal markets to meet end-users requirements. key-afer market is the terminal cattle market in the bena-tsemay district for the inflow of cattle. the main sources of cattle in the key-afer market are village markets such as kako, beneta, woito, alduba, luka, and hamer woreda (dimeka market). the following cattle marketing channels were identified based on the cattle marketing channels depicted in figure 9: channel 1: producers > consumers channel 2: producers > producers (for breeding purpose) channel 3: producers > ngos > producers channel 4: producers > local hotels & restaurants > consumers channel 5: producers > local collectors’ > local hotels & restaurants > consumers channel 6: producers > local collectors > consumers channel 7: producers > local collectors > small scale traders > addis ababa channel 8: producers > small scale traders > arbaminch/ wolaita >addis ababa baba channel 9: producers > local collectors > medium scale trader > modjo export abattoirs figure 9. the cattle marketing routes in bena-tsemay district 4.10 cattle marketing channel a marketing channel is a pre-planned network of various agencies and institutions that, when combined, perform all of the activities required to connect producers with consumers in order to complete marketing tasks [29]. according to respondents, in the bena-tsemay district, there were about 10 cattle marketing channels were identified. these cattle marketing channels began at the cattle production gate and flowed out through various paths to final consumers. these channels represent the full range of available outlets through which cattle move from the different collection points into the terminal markets to meet end-users requirements. key-afer market is the terminal cattle market in the bena-tsemay district for the inflow of cattle. the main sources of cattle in the key-afer market are village markets such as kako, beneta, woito, alduba, luka, and hamer woreda (dimeka market). the following cattle marketing channels were identified based on the cattle marketing channels depicted in figure 9: jinka market benata market kako market dimeka market figure 9. the cattle marketing routes in bena-tsemay district. 68 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 channel 10: producers > medium scale trader > modjo export abattoirs channel 1: producers > consumers according to respondents, in this channel, individual consumers at key-afer, kako, jinka, and woyito markets bought the cattle from producers for home consumption during the holiday festivity. in this case, there was no intermediary share and, thus, the producers were getting all the margin of transactions there was a middleman who shared intermediary costs. moreover, the jinka market is a bigger market where a number of buyers and sellers meet on the weekend. the cattle from the kako market chain end partly when purchased by butchery men and farmers for farm-land traction. some of the traders purchased heifers and oxen from the jinka market and transported them to the gofa area for breeding and farmland traction, respectively. channel 2: producers > producers under this cattle marketing channel, producers participated directly in the selling of cattle in their local area, either for breeding or for farm-land traction purposes. the producers sell the cattle to other producers because they prefer to they know to get the basic historical evidence about the adaptability of the cattle to their extent. they also stated that during critical feed shortages caused by climate change, they lost a large number of cattle compositions, and the producer desired to obtain replacement stock from the local market to restock their farm. they also mentioned that they bought cattle for breeding purposes because agro-pastoralists feel contented to buy from other agro-pastoralists since they can get reliable historical information about the cattle breeding performance and this is more of an advantage of traceability in case something goes wrong with ownership of cattle. channel 3: producers > ngos > producers the respondents reported that sometimes they faced drought incidences, and thus the producers quickly lost a number of cattle and were vulnerable to the menacing condition. therefore, under these circumstances, different ngos purchased cattle from their local market or other areas and donated them to the affected cattle producers so that they could be used for restocking purposes. channel 4: producers > local hotels & restaurants > consumers the respondents reported that the hotels and restaurants in key-afer town, kako, woyito, and alduba kebeles were buying live cattle from the cattle producers. in this channel, producers and hotels benefited from transactions due to the fact that there were no intermediaries that shared benefits from cattle selling. this direct transaction between producers and hotels/restaurants would boost the proportion of the final price of the cattle that would reach producers and also induce buyers to purchase more cattle at lower prices. channel 5: producers > local collectors > local hotels & restaurants > consumers under this channel, the local collectors bought cattle from producers and resold them to local hotels and restaurants in the market or directly to the hotel customer. according to respondents, the local collectors were involved in the selling of cattle to local restaurants/hotels and made a profit of 1,500-2,000 etb per head while the local restaurant/hotel made up to 3,000 etb profit from the transaction that made producers less benefit. channel 6: producers > local collectors > consumers individual consumers who live in jinka and key-afer towns have little or no chance to buy cattle from the producers, who usually buy cattle from the local collectors, especially during religious holidays. channel 7: producers > local collectors > small scale traders > aribaminch/sodo > addis ababa the respondents reported that there were many smallscale traders who collect cattle from local collectors and supply live cattle to arbaminch/sodo and addis ababa from the key-afer market. they purchased cattle with a higher body weight and in good condition in order to supply arba minch, sodo, and addis abeba. channel 8: producers > small-scale traders > arbaminch/wolaita > addis ababa baba under this channel, the small-scale traders directly bought the cattle from producers and transported the live cattle to arbaminch/wolaita/addis ababa and made benefit transactions. on market days, they were mostly collected from local cattle markets in the study area. they sometimes could not get a sufficient number of cattle from one market day, so they waited for the next market day and were transported to addis ababa. channel 9: producers > local collectors > medium scale trader > modjo export abattoirs under this channel, the local collectors would collect cattle from producers and resell them to medium-scale 69 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 traders. then medium-scale traders collect cattle from different collectors at different locations until they get full of the truck load and supply them to modjo’s modern export abattoirs. channel 10: producers > medium scale trader > modjo export abattoirs this channel refers to the channel in which mediumscale traders in the key-afer market get cattle from different destinations into the study area through brokers. the brokers sell or collect the cattle to medium-scale traders who truck them to modjo modern export abattoirs. 5. cattle marketing constraints 5.1 lack of transportation facilities the respondents from the three cattle production systems reported that they transported cattle a long distance by foot from the production gate to the market. as an example, they mentioned that cattle are transported from dimeka to alduba market for about 40 km, from alduba market to key-afer market for about 17 km, from woyito market to key-afer for 42 km, from luka to key-afer market for 21 km, and from key-afer to jinka market for about 42 km. they mentioned that cattle were transported the whole day from the production gate to the marketplace, which exposed them to different stresses due to a lack of feed and water. as a result, considerable weight losses were incurred, which, in turn, accounted for the significant fall in market prices. during the fgds with the local collectors and medium traders at the key-afer market, they mentioned that they incurred additional costs for cattle keepers and transporters for the whole day for hoof transportation. 5.2 lack of feed shortage the respondents replied that the lack of cattle feed as a result of climate change is the major constraint that has been greatly affecting cattle market prices for the last ten years by inducing considerable weight losses, especially during dry seasons, of the weight that was made in wet seasons. the traders wanted to pay more for cattle with good or excellent body conditions than for cattle with poor body conditions. similar to the results from the present study, the study reported by zelalem et al. [30] demonstrated that the seasonal fluctuation in the availability and quality of feed is a major constraint that has affected cattle production in the bena-tsemay district. 5.3 lack of extension service in market promotion the promotion of cattle market prices is a key aspect in price determination due to the fact that cattle producers know what prices were estimated in the market, and the cattle producers can easily negotiate with traders or take their cattle to markets where prices are higher rather than sell them to the local traders at lower prices. in the study areas, cattle producers replied that they had obtained the weekly cattle market price information from neighbors and friends, but they had not obtained the weekly or monthly cattle market price information from the market experts or heard from radio or other media, which has greatly reduced the benefit to cattle producers. 5.4 lack of credit service the respondents from the three cattle production systems replied that they do not have access to credit services that allow them to borrow money to produce more cattle for the market or fatten them and supply them to the local market due to a lack of credit-providing organizations or services in the study area. similarly, shewangizaw et al. [22] reported that the lack of initial capital is the first-ranked constraint due to the lack of credit provision organizations for the cattle market in the central southern region of ethiopia. also, the study reported by belete et al. [31] showed that farmers found in fogera plain are willing to get involved in beef cattle fattening activity and supply, but they are not able to purchase cattle to be fattened due to a lack of initial capital. 5.5 lack of training on cattle marketing providing capacity-building training to cattle producers is important to promote cattle producers concerning when, how, for whom and how many cattle to produce and supply to the market. the respondents from the three productions mentioned that they had not received any capacitybuilding training related to cattle marketing and supply which adversely affected them. 6. conclusions the majority of the households with pastoral, agro-pastoral, and mixed livestock production systems sold cattle, while very few did not. the majority of respondents from pastoral, agro-pastoral, and mixed crop-livestock production systems purchased and sold their cattle in the village and legalized markets, while very few purchased and sold cattle within the village market, which is not legalized. the majority of respondents in pastoral, agro-pastoral, 70 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 and mixed crop-livestock production have access to cattle market information, while a few of them have no such access. the more cattle sellers were connected to cattle traders and deals through direct contact and brokers, the more cattle traders were contacted directly in the marketplace. the prices of selling and purchasing cattle were determined via peaceful negotiations between cattle sellers and traders, while a small percentage were determined only by the cattle seller’s decision. the impact of seasons on cattle marketing prices revealed that higher cattle marketing prices were observed in wet seasons while lower ones were observed in dry seasons. the lack of cattle transportation facilities, a feed shortage, a lack of cattle market price promotion, a lack of credit service, and a lack of capacity building were cattle marketing constraints. based on the results of this study, it was concluded that the government should design strategies for cattle market infrastructure development (federer, waterer, loading and animal health facilities), transportation facilities, the introduction and promotion of improved feeds and feeding strategies, the establishment of legal cattle market promotion centers, and the provision of capacity-building services to improve the cattle marketing system as policy implications of this study. author contributions mr. zelalem adane prepared the proposal, conducted research, collected data. mr. denbela hidosa analyzed data, wrote and edited the whole paper and formatting the paper according to journal protocol. acknowledgments we are extremely thankful to the livestock and marketing experts of the bena-tsemay district for collaboration and participation during the field data collection. finally, we are grateful to acknowledge pastoral, agro-pastoral and farmers of three production systems for their patience during data collection time. data availability all data are available in the main text or in the supporting materials, and raw data can be obtained from the corresponding author upon request. conflict of interest the authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. references [1] central statistical agency, 2021. agricultural sample survey 2020/2021. report on livestock and livestock characteristics (private peasant holdings). statistical bulletin. addis ababa. 1-199. 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[21] tsedeke, k., 2007. production and marketing systems of sheep and goats in alaba, southern ethiopia [master’s thesis]. hawassa: hawassa university. [22] shewangizaw, w., zekarias, b., tesfaye, a., 2014. assessment of cattle fattening and marketing system and constraints affecting cattle fattening in central southern region of ethiopia. african journal of agriculture research. 9(41), 3050-3055. [23] fikru, s., 2015. assessment of cattle fattening and marketing practice in harshin district of somali regional state, ethiopia. journal of advances dairy research. 3(2), 137. [24] getachew, k., bereda, a., eshete, t., et al., 2017. fattened cattle marketing systems in moretna jiru district, north shoa zone, amhara regional state, ethiopia. international journal of livestock production. 8(6), 79-86. [25] teklewold, h., legese, g., alemu, d., et al., 2009. determinants of livestock prices in ethiopian pastoral livestock markets: implications for pastoral marketing strategies [phd thesis]. gothenburg: university of gothenburg. [26] abdi, e., kemal, k., yassin, e., et al., 2013. cattle production in west hararghe: an opportunity and constraints assessments in darolabu, odabultum, gemechis and chiro districts, oromia regional state, ethiopia. international journal of livestock production research. 1(1), 01-15. [27] haile, g., mengistu, d., 2011. livestock market enhancement study hamer woreda, south omo zone, pact ethiopia, addis ababa ethiopia. [28] dejene, t., 2014. assessment of dairy cattle husbandry and breeding management practices of lowland and mid-highland agro-ecologies of borana zone. animal & veterinary sciences. 2(3), 62-69. [29] ferto, i., szabo, g.g. (editors), 2002. the choice of supply channels in hungarian fruit and vegetable sector. american agricultural economics association 2002 annual meeting; long beach, california. [30] zelalem, a., yemane, n., hidosa, d., 2021. cattle production system and breeding practices in bena-tsemay district of south omo, south-western ethiopia. international journal of agriculture and biological sciences. 5, 142-159. [31] belete, a., azage, t., fekadu, b., et al., 2010. cattle and meat production and marketing systems and opportunities for market orientation in fogera woreda, amhararegion, ethiopia. ipma (improving productivity and market success) of ethiopian farmers project: working paper. 19, pp. 65. ilri (international livestock research institute): nairobi, kenya. 12 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: denbela hidosa, livestock research directorate, jinka agricultural research center, ethiopia, email: denbelahidosa@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.694 received: 31 august 2022; received in revised form: 21 october 2022; accepted: 28 october 2022; published: 31 october 2022 citation: hidosa, d., adicha, a., sultan, m., 2022. production and commercialization status of improved panicum grass cultivation in the lowland livestock production system of south omo south-western ethiopia. research on world agricultural economy. 3(4), 694. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.694 research article production and commercialization status of improved panicum grass cultivation in the lowland livestock production system of south omo south-western ethiopia denbela hidosa1* asmera adicha2 muhaba sultan3 1. livestock research directorate, jinka agricultural research center, ethiopia 2. socio economic and gender research directorate, jinka agricultural research center, ethiopia 3. natural resource research directorate, jinka agricultural research center, ethiopia abstract: lack of information on the production and commercialization status of improved panicum grass is one of the major livestock production impediments in south omo. the improved panicum grass is a perennial grass species used throughout the tropics for livestock feeding. therefore, the present study was conducted to understand the seed and hay production status and the economic visibility of improved panicum grass cultivation. the face-to-face interviews were conducted with improved panicum grass producers. the quantitative data, such as the amount of bales and seed produced, and the qualitative data, such as agro-pastoralists’ perceptions, were analyzed using simple descriptive statistics and the likert scale. the results revealed that the seed yield and herbage productivity after seed harvest were 2.5 quintals and 788 bales per hectare per cut, respectively. the average income generated from the sale of herbage and seed of panicum grass was 325,350 etb and 442,500 etb per hectare per year, respectively. based on the results, the authors concluded that joint efforts are needed to step the agro-pastoralists out of the poverty vicious cycle through promoting wide-scale improved panicum grass production by linking products to market sources in addition to legumepanicum grass-based cattle and goat fattening intervention. keywords: agro-pastoralists perception; economic visibility; herbage panicum grass; seed mailto:denbelahidosa@gmail.com http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.694 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5253-9735 13 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 1. introduction ethiopia has about 70 million cattle, 42.9 million sheep, 52.5 million goats, 8.1 million camels, 2.15 million horses, 10.8 million donkeys, 0.38 million mules, and 57 million chickens [1]. livestock herds have provided food, power for crop production, transportation, organic fertilizer, a source of biofuel, security in times of crop failure, and a means of wealth accumulation to 3.85 million rural households in the highland and 7.15 million rural households in the lowland [2,3]. similarly, in south omo’s lowland areas, livestock production has played an important role in providing quality foods (milk, meat and egg), sources of cash income, social insurance, and esteem [4-7]. however, the livestock production system is characterized by a low-input/low-output system and the productivity, which refers to the ability of the animals grown to produce economic outputs such as livestock products and by-products, is generally very low [6]. this is due to poor livestock feed quality and quantity, a lack of improved forage production practices, and as a result, herders rely entirely on natural pasture, which is unable to meet the nutrient requirements of livestock to obtain required production from the livestock. moreover, in the study area, improved forage seed production and supply systems are found to be critical for livestock production due to prevailing of high improved forage seed prices, that makes inaccessible to livestock keepers and, as a result, improved forage production is poorly adapted by livestock keepers. cognizant of this state of affairs, during the last several years, jinka agricultural research center (jarc) has been carrying out an adaptability study on different improved forage species by using irrigation and an array of potential grass, legume, and browse trees of improved forage species were recommended for south omo agroecologies. the selected improved forage species have shown better herbage yield and quality than those in the naturally occurring rage-forage grasses. the improved panicum grass is among the adapted and recommended improved forages for south omo agro-ecologies and is used throughout the tropics for livestock feeding inform of pasture, cut-and-carry, silage, and hay making [8]. panicum grass has a global average dry matter yield of 2,000 bales per hectare per year [9], which can vary depending on the species and variety, fertilizer application, and farm management practices. thus, the studies reported from the research station of south omo [10,11] have shown that the panicum grass yields about 1,000 bales per hectare per cut without fertilizer in rain-fed conditions and 1200 bales per hectare per cut in irrigated conditions, respectively. however, its dry matter yield was reported at up to 2,800 bales per hectare in nitrogen-fertilized conditions [12]. moreover, grass is generally preferable to supplement with sources of protein to improve animal performance due to the fact that it is well eaten by all classes of grazing livestock, particularly high intakes of young leafy plants stages. it is reported that the cows grazing on improved panicum grass yield 10 kg to 12 kg of milk per day. the other feeding trial conducted on goats showed that goats supplemented with improved panicum grass give better results when it is complemented with a legume-based or concentrate diet. also, improved panicum grass is a fast-growing and bulky grass that helps prevent soil erosion since it provides rapid ground cover when it is well managed. however, with this notable potential, the improved panicum grass seed and hay production and commercialization status, and agropastoralists’ perception level are not well documented in the study area due to the scarcity of surplus viable seed, the limited knowledge and capability of agro-pastoralists, and the poor extension services delivered by the government in the study area [13]. in recent years, a few ngos in the dasenech district have been trying to multiply and produce small-scale seeds by mobilizing agro-pastoral communities in groups, but they have not able to satisfy the voracious demand for improved panicum grass seed and hay, which has continued forward at country level. it is hoped that by understanding how agro-pastoralists perceive the panicum grass seed and hay production and commercialization approaches and linking products (seed and hay) to market sources will transform poor agropastoralists into productive and prosperous livelihoods. therefore, the present study was initiated (1) to understand the production and commercialization status and agro-pastoralists’ perception on improved panicum grass seed and hay production and (2) to understand the economic visibility of improved panicum grass seed and hay production under agro-pastoralists managed system. 2. materials and methods 2.1 descriptions of the trial location the study was conducted in alkatakech kebele (administrative-subunit) of the dasenech district of south omo. it is located in the omo river basin, south of the omo river, not more than 500 meters from the omo rate, the capital city of dasenech district, and 200 kilometers from jinka, the capital city of south omo. the site is situated at 5°14’ n latitude, 36°44’ e longitude, and has a temperature range of 25 °c ~ 40 °c. the altitude of the study site is 350 m and rainfall ranges from 350 mm to 600 mm with a bimodal rainfall type in an erratic distribution [14]. the majority of economic activity that has pre14 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 vailed in the study area is low-input/low-output livestock and small-scale sorghum, maize, and banana production using small-scale irrigation from the omo river. the major indigenous livestock species that have been kept in the study area are cattle, sheep, and goats [13]. 2.2 agro-pastoral selection based on irrigation facility and agro-pastoralist interest in producing panicum grass seed and hay for livestock feeding and commercialization purpose, jarc established one improved panicum grass seed and hay producing pastoral and agro-pastoral research and extension group (pareg), which consisted of about 41 agro-pastoralist members from alketekech kebele in collaboration with the dasenech district of livestock and fisher development office. 2.3 site selection and planting each household (hh) in a group received 0.25 ha of communal land, and a total of 10.25 ha of land per group was plowed, disked, harrowed, and ridged using tractors and corrected by laborers donated by papregs members. panicum grass seed was purchased from the local market and sown by drilling with a seeding rate of 15 kg/ha at a 30 cm interval between rows [18]. 2.4 trial site management appropriate site management activities such as weeding, irrigating, hoeing, and monitoring were conducted. the trial farm was kept nearly weed-free by using papreg. family members and trial agro-pastoralists kept the trial site free of animals and rodents. the regular monitoring of the trial site was held at different times by researchers and experts. 2.5 seed and hay harvesting the hand-harvesting method was used, and grass seed heads were mowed with sickles, bound and stoked in the field, then collected for threshing after drying in the shade. then the heads of grass were beaten with sticks and hands, roughly sieved, and then sun-dried. the inert matter and damaged seed from harvested seed threshed and dried materials were cleaned by hand to ensure good seed quality. finally, at the end of processing, the threshed seed was packed and sealed in locally available containers (jars) and stored in ventilated rooms until sold to the local market. regarding haymaking, after seed harvest for those interested in hay production, the grass was cut and laid out in the sun under shade, raked a few times, and turned regularly to hasten its drying and then dried grass was raked and baled. 2.6 technology promotion at mid-term grass production, a field day was organized for agro-pastoralists, administrative bodies, experts, and other stakeholders and participants to compare the introduced technological options with existing practices. the posters, banners, and other promotional materials were displayed to participants during the field day program. the discussion was held among the stakeholders on the way forward, and some additional roles might be identified, and roles and responsibilities were shared for the next contributions along the value chain of grass hay production and commercialization. 2.7 data collection data on agro-pastorals’ perceptions of improved panicum grass production, amount of bale and seed produced, harvesting frequency, the selling price of a bale, and the economic visibility of panicum grass production were collected by using face-to-face interviews from the total of were 41 respondents (16 males and 25 females). 2.8 method of data analysis quantitative data such as the amount of bales and seed produced and qualitative data such as agro-pastoralists’ perceptions were analyzed using simple descriptive statistics (percentage and mean) and the likert scale. a benefit and cost ratio was used to analyze the cost of production and net income from panicum grass production. 3. results and discussion 3.1 socioeconomic characteristics of trial agropastoralists the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of trial agro-pastoralists in the study area are presented in table 1. the result on demographic characteristics revealed that the majority (60.97%) of interviewed panicum grass growers were female-headed, while about 39.02% were male-headed. it is obvious that in pastoral areas of ethiopia, the females are more involved in agricultural activities like planting, weeding, harvesting, and threshing than the males, aside from household routine activities such as preparing dishes, clearing the house and barn, caring for children, and fetching water and firewood. this is because, culturally, males were paid more dowries during marriage time for females’ families, and thus, they were considered slaves, allowing females to be more involved in agricultural activities than males. they reported that most of the time, males were involved in preparing land 15 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 and herding cattle rather than planting, weeding, and harvesting. similarly, the studies reported by hidosa and ayele [15] and zelalem et al. [6] from the pastoral and agropastoral areas of hamer and bena-tsemay districts have shown that most of the time, females were involved in agricultural activities like planting, weeding, and harvesting, in addition to house routine activities, while males herded cattle. meanwhile, the study reported by worku and lisanework [16] elucidated that young males are involved in herding cattle to distant places, especially to an island (desset) in the dasenech district of south omo, while females are involved in crop farming activities using small irrigation systems adjacent to residential areas in addition to household routine activities. the minimum family size of agro-pastoralists who were involved in panicum grass production was 3, and the maximum was 9, and the average was 6. the overall average family size from the present study was lower than the reported value of 9.65 persons by demerew et al. [4] for the malle district of south omo and 10 persons for borana pastoralists by zekarias [17], but it was similar to the reported value of 6.19 persons for agro-pastoralists of the bena-tsemay district of south omo by zelalem et al. [6]. regarding experience in panicum grass production, the findings of this study indicated that the minimum year of experience for agro-pastorals who have been involved in panicum grass production was one year, while the maximum was seven years, and on average about three years. the finding on panicum grass production experience from this study implies that agro-pastoralists are not new to improve panicum grass production, but that successful production and getting benefit from the production might depend on the provision of training. less experienced agro-pastoralists are expected to have less access to panicum grass seed and hay production and marketing information. similarly, the study reported by gebreegziabher and tsegay [18] indicated that more experienced farmers adopted forage production practices more quickly than less experienced ones. the maximum number of family members involved in panicum grass production in the study area was 5 people, while the minimum was 2 people, and the average was 3.22 people. the involvement of family members in panicum production is important to implement different farm management operations like irrigating, weeding, and harvesting to share among them. the involvement of family members in panicum grass production is also important to create more job opportunities for jobless household members and thus generate income and reduce jobless family members, thereby improving their means of livelihood. as indicated in figure 1, the majority of the agro-pastoralists who were involved in panicum grass production were illiterate (61.1%), about 16.1% had acquired primary education, and very few (11.1%) had learned grade 5-8 and above grade 8 (11.1%). the studies reported by zelalem et al. [6] and demerew et al. [4] have shown that about 66% and 12% of agro-pastoralists of bena-tsemay, and 68.3% and 11% of agro-pastoralists of malle districts who are involved in cattle production were illiterate and acquired primary school (grade 1-4th), respectively, which was relatively in agreement with the results from our study. however, the results from this study were not in line with the previously reported values of 41.7% by tollossa et al. [19] for borana pastoralists who had attended formal education (1-4th grade) and 83.88% by hidosa and ayele [15] for hamer pastoralists who were illiterate, i.e., unable to read and write. 3.2 reason for improved panicum grass production the important attribute factors that have motivated agro-pastoralists to improve panicum grass production in the study area are presented in table 2. according to agro-pastoralists, livestock feed shortages are an important factor that has motivated them to get involved in improving panicum grass production. accordingly, about 51.23% of agro-pastoralists replied that for the last 10 years they have faced a livestock feed shortage, but curtable 1. demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of sample respondents characteristics of respondents frequency percent sex male 16 39.02 female 25 60.97 minimum maximum mean std. dev age of household 25 50 35.72 7.98 family size 3 9 6.22 1.96 experience in panicum grass production (year) 1 7 3.44 1.82 family number engaged in panicum grass production 2 5 3.22 1.06 source: own survey, 2022 16 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 rently they have solved this by starting the production of improved panicum grass in their backyard and feeding it by cut and carry system. in addition, they were reported that agro-pastoralists involved in panicum grass production because they were trained by researchers from the jarc and experts from the dasenech district of livestock and fisher development office (ddlfdo) and obtained improved panicum grass seed freely from these organizations. during the focus group discussion with them, they mentioned that there were a lot of cattle that died this year in nearby kebeles who were not involved in panicum grass planting as we did due to the lack of rainfall in the last three consecutive years as result of climate change. on the other hand, about 36.58% of respondents reported that they did not observe livestock feed shortages because they were recently solved by planting panicum grass, and very few agro-pastoralists (12.19%) replied that livestock feed shortages occurred sometimes. similarly, the study reported by getaneh et al. [13] indicated that livestock feed shortages in the dasenech district were severe problems, especially between january and march due to a lack of awareness of improved forage species except that very few agro-pastoralists were involved in panicum grass production. as it is indicated in table 2, all respondents (100%) have replied that they have participated in the growing of improved panicum grass due to an improvement in awareness of the importance of improved panicum grass. they mentioned that the improved panicum grass production is important because they sell seed and hay on the local market and buy grains like maize and sorghum to fulfill the food requirements of their family members, besides feeding their cattle, sheep, and goats by the cut and carry system. similarly, the study reported by mengistu et al. [20] indicated that farmers of the damota gale district of wolaita zone have produced improved forages as a source of cash, for use as feed, for soil erosion control, or two or more of these functions. regarding the benefits of growing panicum grass, the majority (92.68%) of respondents reported that the benefits of growing improved panicum grass were highly improving; while very few (7.32%) reported that benefits obtained were slowly improving. this implies that the majority of respondents realized the importance of growing panicum grass as their main livelihood improvement activity in the study areas. the high improvement in the growth of panicum grass is due to growers’ having received training on planting methods, irrigating schemes, harvesting time, conservation methods, hay-making practices, and ways of utilization. the studies reported by gebreegziabher and tsegay [18] and dejene et al. [21] have indicated that about 74.5% and 66.7% of farmers participated in improved forage production in highland areas of ethiopia due to an improvement in awareness of the importance of improved forage production, respectively. pastoralists who had attended formal education (1-4th grade) and 83.88% by hidosa and ayele [15] for hamer pastoralists who were illiterate, i.e., unable to read and write. figure 1. map of study area 3.2 reason for improved panicum grass production the important attribute factors that have motivated agro-pastoralists to improve panicum grass production in the study area are presented in table 2. according to agro-pastoralists, livestock feed shortages are an important factor that has motivated them to get involved in improving panicum grass production. accordingly, about 51.23% of agro-pastoralists replied that for the last 10 years they have faced a livestock feed shortage, but currently they have solved this by starting the production of improved panicum grass in their backyard and feeding it by cut and carry system. in addition, they were reported that agro-pastoralists involved in panicum grass production because they were trained by researchers from the jarc and experts from the dasenech district of livestock and fisher development office (ddlfdo) and obtained improved panicum grass seed freely from these organizations. during the focus group discussion with them, they mentioned that there were a lot of cattle that died this year in nearby kebeles figure 1. map of study area 17 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 table 2. the attribute factors that have motivated agropastoralists in improved panicum grass production attributes respondents response freq percent feed shortage • yes it occurs often but not now 21 51.23 • yes it occurs sometimes 5 12.19 • no, recently solved 15 36.58 awareness improvement in improved forage production • yes 41 100 • no 0 0 the benefit of growing panicum • highly improving 38 92.68 • slowly improving 3 7.32 source: own survey, 2022 as indicated in figure 2, the majority (66.67%) of respondents of panicum grass growers reported that they were trained by researchers from jarc, whereas very few (5.55%) of respondents were trained by experts from dlfrdo, and the remaining were trained by jarc in collaboration with llrl (11.11%) and jarc in collaboration with dlfrdo and llrp (16.67%). the result from the present study implies that in the study area, panicum grass growers were well trained on the improved panicum grass production package by the different organizations. as mentioned by dlfrdo experts during household surveys in the study area, the different improved forage species like elephant grass, sesbania, luecunea, lablab, cowpea, rhodes, and panicum grass were demonstrated to agro-pastoralists by different organizations, but of these, panicum grass was highly adopted by agro-pastoralists. the reasons for the high adoption rates of panicum grass by agro-pastoralists were that grass is highly preferred by their animals; it is easy to establish; it has high herbage and seed yielding potential; it is resistant to water and moisture stress; and there is a high demand for herbage and seed at the local market. 3.3 herbage and seed productivity the total amount of herbage (bales) and seed (quintals) produced in the study area is presented in table 3. according to agro-pastoralists, the seed yield and herbage productivity after seed harvest of panicum grass were 2.5 quintals per hectare per cut and 788 bales (11.82 tones) per hectare per cut, respectively. of the total herbage produced, about 964 bales were fed to their cattle by a cut and carry system, while about 650 bales of green herbage were gifted to their relatives who were not involved in panicum grass cultivation to save their cattle, goats, and sheep during a severe drought in the study area. moreover, agro-pastoralists reported that about 760 bales of green herbage were exchanged with 65 goats in a bartering system, and about 1,566 bales of green herbage were sold both at the farm gate and local market and purchased grains and covered the food requirements of family members. the results obtained from the present study were lower than the reported values of 1000 and 1200 bales by denbela [10] and hidosa et al. [11] for improved panicum grass cultivated in rain-fed and irrigated conditions, respectively. the result of seed yield from the present study was lower than the reported values of 3.1 quintals per hectare by hassen [22] and 4.71 quintals per hectare by zeleke et al. [23] for panicum antidotale grass from the afambo and amibara districts of the afar region, respectively. 61.10%16.80% 11.10% 11.10% illiterate grade1-4 grade5-8 >above grade8 figure 2. education status of improved panicum grass producer house hold 18 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 table 3. amount of improved panicum herbage and seed produced and utilized by agro-pastoralists in irrigated lowland of dasenech district under agro-pastoral management system seed(quintal)/ha/cut 2.5 herbage (bale)/ha/cut 788 amount of herbage consumed/hh/year • own cattle(bale) 964 • gifted (bale) 650 • bartering(bale) 760 • sold at the farm gate(bale) 1,566 source: own survey, 2022 3.4 herbage utilization way the panicum grass herbage utilization practices after seed harvest are indicated in figure 3. as indicated in figure 3, the majority (49.3%) of respondents replied that they fed their cattle, goats, and sheep and sold green herbage at the farm gate, while about 20.90% of respondents fed their cattle, sheep, and goats by cut and carry system. on the other hand, about 23% of respondents replied that they used herbage as a direct feed to cattle, sheep, and goats by cut & carry system, haymaking for their cattle, and selling green herbage in the farm market, while very few agro-pastoralists (6.8%) reported that they sold fresh herbage on the farm. similar to the current study’s findings, zereu and lijalem [24] found that approximately 98.4% and 75.6% of farmers in the wolaita zone’s midland and lowland agro-ecologies used improved forage by cut and carry systems, respectively. moreover, the study reported by tolera [25] stated that cultivated forages are mainly important as cut-and-carry sources of feed and as a supplement to crop residues and natural pastures, which was concurrent with the result of this study. 3.5 seed and herbage harvesting frequency according to agro-pastoralists, the average improved panicum grass seed harvesting day in the study area was between 50 and 60 days. they mentioned that if their farm was irrigated with enough water every week, the seed was harvested 50 days after planting, while if the farm was not irrigated with enough water every week, the seed harvesting days were extended up to 60 days. similarly, the seed harvesting frequency was dependent on irrigation water access, and as the agro-pastoralists, the minimum panicum grass harvesting frequency was 4 times, the maximum was 6 times, and the average was 5 times per year for seed production. similarly, the study reported by zeleke et al. [23] indicated that the improved panicum antidotale grass was harvested 61 days after planting for seed. the result of this study was lower than that reported 7 times per year by zeleke et al. [23] from the amibara district of the afar region, ethiopia. concerning the harvesting frequency of improved panicum grass for herbage production, agropastoralists reported that at 45 days, improved panicum grass bloomed up to 50% and it was ready to feed animals by cut and carry system. the study reported by denbela [10] indicated that improved panicum grass bloomed up to 50% at 78 days after planting under rain-fed conditions, which was longer than what agro-pastoralists reported in the present study. this study’s inconsistent results on seed harvesting date and frequency when compared to previous studies are due to soil variability, weather conditions, species difference, or management practices. forage yield and yield-related agronomic parameters may vary due to 66.67% 5.55% 11.11% 16.67% jarc llrp dlfrdo jarc+llrp figure 3. training delivery organizations on improved panicum grass production packages 19 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 differences in soil parameters, harvesting age, irrigation effect, management, and agro-ecological differences [5,26,27]. 3.6 income from panicum grass production the income generated from improved panicum grass production (seed and herbage) is presented in table 4. according to agro-pastoralists, the average price of herbage (bale) was 90 etb, whereas the minimum and maximum prices of bale were 80 etb and 100 etb, respectively. the mean price of improved panicum seed per kg was 300 etb, whereas the minimum and maximum prices per kg were 250 etb and 350 etb. based on the result, the minimum and maximum bales produced per cut per hectare were 650 and 926 bales, respectively with average 788 bales (table 4). the average income generated by households per year per hectare from the sale of fresh herbage and seed was 325,350 etb and 442,500 etb, respectively, and the mean total income of 767,850 etb. the high incomes were a major driver of the development of forage production for sale and animal feeding in the study area. for instance, by cultivating improved panicum grass for sale in local markets, small-scale irrigated panicum grass production is viable as a cash crop. it has been determined that irrigated panicum grass production is economically competitive with other crops based on frequent harvesting with promising herbage yield, quality, and onfarm gate prices. other advantages include increasing and improving the productivity of farm animals in terms of milk and meat production, meaning the amount of profitability derived from the improved panicum grass may be greater and clear. previous research from vietnam, cambodia, and china found that improving animal feeding increased the financial benefits of smallholder cattle production systems [28-31]. the study reported by getnet [32] indicated that the initiatives aimed at fodder agronomy, value chain development, and business viability over the long term can increase stabilized farm revenue. 3.7 cost of panicum grass production the total cost for the production of improved panicum grass is described in table 5. the panicum grass production cost was calculated from a face-to-face semi-structured interview of beneficiary agro-pastorals by the price norms approved by the jinka agricultural research center for wage employees in 2021, which have been taken into consideration during the total cost calculation. based on the approved wage norm of jarc, the average cost of production for improved panicum grass production per hectare per year was 114,000 etb. regarding the price of land, it is not considered in the cost price calculation because the land is a free resource/value or communal in the agro-pastoral and pastoral areas. 3.8 net income from panicum grass production the net income from improved panicum grass seed and hay production in the study area is presented in table 6. the mean net income per hectare per year from the sale of green herbage and seed was 767,850 etb by considering five harvesting frequencies per year and the required production cost for improved panicum grass production was 114,000 etb. this means that agro-pastoralists that participated in improved panicum grass production would get a net income of 653,850 etb/year. moreover, the benefit-to-cost ratio of panicum grass production was 5.73:1, which indicated that each household gets a benefit from panicum grass production nearly six times the cost of production. this result would motivate new agro-pastoralists to tend to participate improved panicum grass cultivation to realize benefits of this profitable enterprise. table 4. income from improved panicum grass herbage and seed/ha/cut/year attributes min max mean harvesting frequency per year 4 6 5 herbage/ha/cut (bale) 650 926 788 price per bale (etb) 80 100 90 seed produced/ha/cut (kg) 150 350 250 price per kg (etb) 250 350 300 income from the sale of herbage/hh (etb) 234,000 416,700 325,350 income from the sale of seed/hh (etb) 150,000 735,000 442,500 total income (etb)/ha/year 384,000 1,151,700 767,850 source: own survey, 2022 20 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 table 6. net income from improved panicum grass seed and hay production/ha/year income and cost of production mean (etb) gross income (seed + herbage) 767,850 cost of production (seed and herbage) 114,000 calculated net income 653,850 benefit: cost ratio 5.73:1 source: own survey, 2022 3.9 benefit of establishing improved panicum grass-producing cooperative the benefits of establishing improved panicum grassproducing cooperative in the study area are indicated in figure 4. as indicated in figure 4, about 38.9% of respondents replied that producing panicum grass and being in a cooperative enables them to earn a high income, while about 27.8% replied that being in a cooperative is imperative to share forage cultivation practice and other experiences. the remaining 33.3% of agro-pastoralists said that growing panicum grass in cooperatives gives them access to irrigation and other new technological options. several empirical studies have shown that agricultural cooperatives raise farm output by encouraging the use of productivity-enhancing technological options and thereby enhancing their collective bargaining power, which reduces the market risks they may face. furthermore, they provide member farmers/pastoralists with financing options that raise productivity ceilings and are essential for the distribution of agricultural products like chemical fertilizers, seeds, and other inputs [33-36]. table 5. cost of panicum grass production per household per hectare per year items measurements amount price/etb total cost remark panicum seed kg 15 300 4,500 land clearing person/day 30 100 3,000 land preparation person/day 20 100 2,000 planting person/day 20 100 2,000 irrigating round 104 100 etb*8person*104 83,200 irrigation frequency per ha 1st wedding person/day 20 100 2,000 2nd weeding person/day 20 100 2,000 herbage harvesting person/day 20 100 2,000 haymaking person/day 20 100 2,000 for tedding and baling seed harvesting person/day 20 100 2,000 seed threshing person/day 66 100 6,600 drying and packing seed cleaning person/day 27 100 2,700 total 114,000 per year source: own survey, 2022 20.9% 6.8% 49.3% 23% cut& carry system sold in field cut &carry,&sold in field cut and carry, hay& sold in field figure 4. utilization ways of herbage of panicum grass after seed harvesting 21 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 3.10 agro-pastoral perception on panicum grass production table 7 shows agro-pastoralists’ perceptions of improved panicum grass production. about 87.8% of agropastoralists appraised the establishment potential of panicum grass as very good, while about 12.5% appraised it as good compared to locally grown panicum grass. they stated that improved panicum grass was easily established within 4-5 days after planting, while their local panicum takes a week and requires high soil moisture. regarding early maturity, all agro-pastoralists reported that improved panicum grass was early mature for seed production as compared to local grass, which took a long time to reach its maturity for seed production. they mentioned that improved panicum grass had reached its maturity for seed harvesting within 50~60 days after planting, but lo100 0 38.9 27.8 33.3 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 ye s no hig h i nc om e s ou rce wo rk ex pe rie nc e & ide a s ha rin g ac ce ss to irr iga tio n & ot he r… p er ce nt member of cooperative benefit of engaging in cooperative figure 5. benefit of engaging in cooperation during panicum grass production table 7. summary of agro-pastoralists’ perception of improved panicum grass characteristics of variety rate of scale (0= poor, 0.5=good, 1= very good) very good good poor n % n % n % ease of establishment 36 87.8 5 12.2 0 0 early maturity 41 100 0 0 0 0 resistance to stress 34 82.9 5 12.2 2 4.8 biomass yield 41 100 0 0 0 0 dual purpose 41 100 0 0 0 0 repeated harvest 41 100 0 0 0 0 leaf-to-stem ratio 41 100 0 0 0 0 intake by animals 41 100 0 0 0 0 seed yield 41 100 0 0 0 0 marketability 41 100 0 0 0 0 source: own survey, 2022 22 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 cal panicum grass lasted for 3~4 months. similarly, the study reported by zeleke et al. [23] from amibara district of afar has elucidated that agro-pastoralists preferred the improved panicum grass over rhodes and c. cilaria grass due to higher establishment potential, the number of multiple harvests per year, and high seed yielding potential. about 82.9%, 12.2%, and 4.8% of agro-pastoralists reported that improved panicum grass was very resistant, resistant, and poorly resistant to different stresses, respectively, as compared to the local one. they replied that the improved panicum grass was resistant to water, nutrient, and disease/pest stresses by stating that panicum grass stays alive for up to a year in soil with less moisture, while local panicum grass easily vanishes after 2~3 months when exposed to moisture stress. similarly, hassen [22] reported that agro-pastoralists who were involved in improving forage production ranked panicum antidotale grass first rather than rhodes and c. ciliaris grasses because it stayed green and vigorously for a longer period without water. moreover, all the agro-pastoralists (100%) perceive the improved panicum grass as dual-purpose (seed and herbage) with repeated harvesting as compared to local panicum grass species. they highly preferred improved panicum grass over local ones because the former provided seed as well as quality herbage after seed harvest, which was used as a source of feed for cattle, sheep, and goats. in support of the results from the present study, the studies reported by hassen [22] and abdullah et al. [37] have shown that the cultivation of perennial forage crops like panicum antidotale grass provides the farmers with available year-round feed sources for meeting the nutritional requirements of the animals. they also mentioned that high herbage production of improved grass with repeated harvest about five times per year is used as a source of income for agro-pastoralists. similarly, all agro-pastoralists agreed that improved panicum grass has a high leaf-to-stem ratio and is highly preferred by cattle, goats, and sheep as compared to local panicum grass. they were raised to an astonishing idea by stating that the herbage of improved panicum grass is very soft and highly preferred by their animals, while the local panicum grass has high stems rather than leafy, which leads to blood in the mouth and lips of their animals. correspondingly, a study reported by hassen [22] indicated that agro-pastoralists preferred the panicum antidotale grass over rhodes and c. ciliaris grasses due to its high performance in terms of herbage yield and palatability by livestock species. moreover, the results from the present study were in line with amakirin et al. [38], who reported that high-value fodder crops like panicum grass are vastly preferable by nigerian farmers as dry season supplementary feeding. figure 6. small-scale cluster based improved panicum grass cultivation in alketekech kebele of dasenech district 4. conclusions the results from this study revealed that improved panicum grass production has highly improved agro-pastoralists’ livelihoods through income generation by selling green herbage and seed. each agro-pastoralist who has involved in improved panicum grass production is now able to feed their cattle, sheep, and goats; gifted fresh biomass to their relatives; and exchange green herbage with goats by using a bartering system. the mean net income per household from the sale of green herbage and seed was 653,850 etb per hectare per year. based on the results, we concluded that joint efforts are needed to step-up the agro-pastoralists out of the poverty vicious circle through promoting wide-scale improved panicum grass seed and herbage production and a commercialization approach by linking products to market sources to transform agropastoralists into productive and prosperous livelihoods. moreover, we have concluded that agro-pastoralists should be involved in cattle and goat fattening practices by using a mixture of legume-improved panicum grassbased feeding systems to enhance their income besides the sale of seed and green herbage. author contributions mr. denbela h. prepared the proposal, secured the funds, conducted research, collected data, and wrote and edited the whole paper. mr. asmera a. participated in data collection, analysis, drafting, and formatting the paper according to journal protocol. mr. muhaba s. participated in land securing, preparing, planting, and monitoring activities. 23 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 funding this research activity was conducted funds from the international development association (ida) and the international fund for agricultural development (ifad) through the lowland livelihood resilience project (llrp) to improve livestock feed and feeding systems in south omo and to enhance resilience in pastoral areas of ethiopia. availability of data and materials all data are available in the main text or in the supporting materials, and raw data can be obtained from the corresponding author upon request. conflict of interest we declared that there are no competing interests between us for publication of this manuscript. acknowledgments this study was conducted with funds from the international development association (ida) and the international fund for agricultural development (ifad) through the lowland livelihood resilience project (llrp) of the regional bureau of pastorals in southern nation, nationality and people regional state for the enhancement of pastoral livelihoods in the south omo. we are extremely thankful to the llrp experts in hawassa and the south omo llrp coordinating office for collaboration in ontime budget release and other logistic support. finally, we are grateful to acknowledge dassench woreda livestock and fisheries and water and irrigation offices, developmental agents, and agro-pastoralists for their participation and collaboration during this study. references [1] central statistical agency, 2021. agricultural sample survey 2020/2021. report on livestock and livestock characteristics (private peasant holdings). statistical bulletin. addis ababa 1–199. 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[32] getnet, k., haileslasseie, a., dessalegne, y., et al., 2016. on the profitability of irrigated fodder production: comparative evidence from smallholders in koga irrigation scheme, ethiopia. animal production science. 57(9), 1962-1974. [33] woldu, t., tadesse, f., 2015. women’s participation in agricultural cooperatives in ethiopia. [34] abebaw, d., haile, m.g., 2013. the impact of cooperatives on agricultural technology adoption: empirical evidence from ethiopia. food policy. 38, 82-91. [35] abate, g.t., francesconi, g.n., getnet, k., 2014. impact of agricultural cooperatives on smallholders’technical efficiency: empirical evidence from ethiopia. annals of public and cooperative economics. 85(2), 257-286. [36] tefera, d.a., bijman, j., slingerland, m.a., 2017. agricultural co‐operatives in ethiopia: evolution functions and impact. journal of international development. 29(4), 431-453. [37] abdullahi, a.a., aliero, b.l., aliero, a.a., et al., 2013. effects of irrigation regime, organic and inorganic mineral source on growth and yield components of switchgrass (panicum virgatum l.) in upland and lowland conditions in sokoto, nigeria. pakistan journal of biological sciences: pjbs. 16(2), 51-58. [38] amakiri, a.o., owen, o.j., udenze, c.n., 2011. comparative study of nutritional value of two pasture grasses: panicum maximum (guinea grass) and pennisetum purpureum (elephant grass) using weaner rabbits. new clues in sciences. 1, 88-91. 25 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: k. nirmal ravi kumar, department of agricultural economics, agricultural college, bapatla, acharya ng ranga agricultural university (angrau), andhra pradesh, india; email: kn.ravikumar@angrau.ac.in doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i2.514 received: 7 april 2022; received in revised form: 10 may 2022; accepted: 18 may 2022; published: 26 may 2022 citation: kumar, k.n.r., 2022. competitiveness of indian agricultural exports: a constant market share analysis. research on world agricultural economy. 3(2), 514. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i2.514 research article competitiveness of indian agricultural exports: a constant market share analysis k. nirmal ravi kumar* department of agricultural economics, agricultural college, bapatla, acharya ng ranga agricultural university (angrau), andhra pradesh, india abstract: the 1991 indian reforms aimed at economic liberalization, as a part of its economic structural adjustment, and transformed the nation’s economy into a more global market-based and service-oriented system, which revolutionized its agricultural trade facet. the new regime paved the way for the self-reliant indian agriculture to expand its roots into the spheres of global competitiveness and export orientation. india enjoys competitive advantage in the international market and considering the growth in india’s exports of major agricultural commodities. this study employed constant market share model to analyze the export performance of its various facets such as diversification, instability, elasticity, competitiveness, etc. the findings revealed that india’s growth performance of major agricultural commodities’ exports both in terms of quantity and value was found satisfactory (except wheat and cashew nuts, shelled (quantity)) during 1991-2020. during the recent past decade, i.e., 2011-2020, world demand effect (wde) is the main sources of india’s agricultural export performance (due to general rise/fall in world demand given a constant market share of the india, unlike market distribution effect (mde), commodity composition effect (cce) and the residual competitiveness effect (rce) due to high inconsistency arising out of changes in external environment). both mde and rce with respect to commodity-wise exports and cce and rce with respect to country-wise exports are found negative for majority of commodities and countries (markets) respectively. consistently negative cce for exports of agricultural products, total and across major export destinations were found more disheartening and this should deserve special attention. so, it is imperative to boost the export competitiveness of agricultural commodities from india and the future prospects of exports depend on how much the latest surge in covid-19 infections in india affects its agricultural production and global demand conditions. keywords: indian exports; world exports; export performance; export competitiveness; world demand 1. introduction economic reforms and trade liberalization policies have been widely adopted by developing countries to improve their position in world trade. since 1991, india entered the liberalization-privatization-globalization (lpg) phase to overcome its debt crisis, food shortage and at the http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i2.514 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0041-572x 26 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 same time to gain from net agricultural exports, as it enjoys comparative advantage for majority of the agricultural commodities. with the advent of this lpg phase, more focus is now given towards export promotion through enhancing both domestic and export competitiveness of agricultural commodities. emphasis on cost-effective and quality production of agriculture gained more significance. with the emergence of world trade organization (wto) in 1995, it was expected that india would be benefited through multilateral trade, as it enjoys comparative advantage with reference to majority of the agricultural commodities and also fulfill the import requirements like pulses, edible oils, technology etc. in this context, a number of studies investigated the effects of trade liberalization on export performance of agricultural commodities in india. many studies have identified positive effects of trade liberalization on export performance of majority of the agricultural commodities. in the post-wto regime, indian agricultural commodities exports performance has undergone paradigm shift through the tremendous structural and qualitative changes [1]. india is the second most populous country with the fifth largest economy occupying only 13th position in world trade and earning us$ 623 billion of merchandise trade and us$ 294 billion of services trade. in india, agriculture exports have significantly increased by multiple folds from us$ 3.35 billion to us$ 41.56 billion and registered impressive growth rates during 19901991 to 2020-2021. india imports an immense catalogue of 6000 agri-products from 140 nations, bested only by its exports comprising about 7500 types of products to 190 countries globally. as of 2020-2021, india’s agri-exports amount to us$ 41.56 billion, which constitutes 14.20 per cent of its total exports. on the contrary, the nation’s agri-imports were valued at us$ 21.47 billion, the 5.42 per cent piece of the total national import pie (table 1). this shows that india’s agricultural economy enjoys a whopping us$ 20.09 billion global trade surplus. yet, on more narrow spectra, the nation enjoys trade surplus with bangladesh, belgium, germany, hongkong, italy, malaysia, nepal, netherlands, singapore, sri lanka, uae, uk, usa, vietnam, etc., but looks to a trade deficit with nations such as australia, china, nigeria, south korea, switzerland, saudi arabia, iran, iraq, qatar, etc., which could be cited as some of the nations serving as epicenters of shifts in the global economic power. the nation recorded an increase in its share of global exports from 0.53 per cent in 1994 before the commencement of wto to 1.71 per cent in 2019. in the same time-frame, india’s share in global imports hiked from 0.7 per cent to 2.5 per cent [2]. india has consistently maintained a trade surplus in agricultural commodities over the years. the agricultural exports from india registered an increase of nearly 50 times in the span of 30 years per cent till 2020-2021. however, in 2019-2020, there was a slight drop in agri-exports by around 8 per cent. in the next year during 2020-2021, india’s agri-exports reached the highest. so, with the increased international trade opportunities, the agricultural exports from india gained the rapid surge. however, besides absolute growth in agri-exports, the competitiveness of the agricultural commodities is an important dimension. the tendency of a nation to produce and distribute products that can withstand the competitiveness of global markets and sustain its producers by ensuring a continuous improvement in their real incomes and living standards is a measure of the nation’s export competitiveness. it gained more prominence in modern times, owing to the increasing foreign exchange to the exporting country. a nation, on realization of export competitiveness, embodies several advantages such as strengthening of ports’ export infrastructure, quality enhancement of commodities, capture of monopoly gains in the international market, earning significant amounts of foreign exchange, ease in regulation of procedural formalities at ports, increase in the pace of making exports, planning towards need-based exports on client specifications, quality enhancement of commodities, strengthening of international trade relationships, analysis of the tariff levels of market players and fixation of export prices in accordance, etc. these advantages may move the government of a nation with a liberalized economy to formulate appropriate trade policies aimed towards its significant exports. keeping in view of the importance of export competitiveness and increase in exports value of agricultural commodities from india, it demands analysis of its various facets such as diversification, instability, elasticity, competitiveness, etc. so, this article investigates the major sources of india’s exports performance during the recent past decade of post-wto regime period (20112020) by using constant market share analysis (cmsa). the article is organized into five sections. beginning with an introduction in the first section, brief review of literature is presented in the section, followed by the methodology, data used in the analysis and brief description about cmsa model in the third section, the fourth section presents the results and discussions. summary and conclusions are presented in the last section. 27 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 table 1. india’s imports and exports of principal agricultural commodities (us$ billion) year agricultural imports total national imports % of agricultural imports to total national imports agricultural exports total national exports % of agricultural exports to total national exports net agricultural export 1990-1991 0.67 24.08 2.79 3.35 18.14 18.47 2.68 1991-1992 0.60 19.55 3.09 3.20 18.00 17.80 2.60 1992-1993 0.94 20.68 4.54 2.95 17.52 16.84 2.01 1993-1994 0.74 23.31 3.18 4.01 22.24 18.05 3.27 1994-1995 1.89 28.65 6.60 4.21 26.33 15.99 2.32 1995-1996 1.76 36.68 4.80 6.10 31.79 19.18 4.34 1996-1997 1.86 39.13 4.76 6.81 33.47 20.33 4.94 1997-1998 2.36 41.48 5.70 6.68 35.01 19.09 4.32 1998-1999 3.46 42.39 8.17 6.06 33.22 18.25 2.60 1999-2000 3.71 49.74 7.45 5.84 36.71 15.91 2.13 2000-2001 2.65 50.54 5.24 6.27 44.56 14.08 3.63 2001-2002 3.41 51.41 6.63 6.23 43.83 14.22 2.82 2002-2003 3.64 61.41 5.92 7.16 52.72 13.58 3.52 2003-2004 4.78 78.15 6.12 7.92 63.84 12.41 3.14 2004-2005 5.08 107.13 4.74 9.26 83.54 11.08 4.18 2005-2006 3.61 129.69 2.78 10.32 103.09 10.02 6.72 2006-2007 5.08 185.60 2.74 12.76 126.26 10.10 7.68 2007-2008 5.60 251.56 2.23 18.56 162.98 11.39 12.95 2008-2009 6.25 299.33 2.09 17.65 183.10 9.64 11.40 2009-2010 11.47 287.61 3.99 17.81 178.32 9.99 6.34 2010-2011 11.21 369.37 3.03 24.80 249.46 9.94 13.60 2011-2012 14.64 489.42 2.99 38.14 305.90 12.47 23.50 2012-2013 17.99 501.62 3.59 42.70 307.14 13.90 24.71 2013-2014 14.17 448.82 3.16 43.43 314.87 13.79 29.26 2014-2015 19.84 447.58 4.43 39.20 310.15 12.64 19.36 2015-2016 21.43 380.38 5.63 32.90 262.17 12.55 11.47 2016-2017 24.56 384.31 6.39 33.79 275.74 12.26 9.23 2017-2018 23.60 465.60 5.07 39.03 303.55 12.86 15.43 2018-2019 19.60 514.09 3.81 39.27 330.04 11.90 19.67 2019-2020 20.94 477.41 4.39 35.93 315.32 11.40 14.99 2020-2021 21.47 395.90 5.42 41.56 292.76 14.20 20.09 source: dgci & s, 2020-2021 28 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 2. review of literature though there are several definitions for export competitiveness, no definition or measurement was found universally accepted. according to cook and bredahl [3], competitiveness can be seen from the perspective of geographical market or product. however, they opined that this definition is even not clear regarding at what level ie., either at national level or industry level or firm level, the competitiveness should be measured. pursell and gupta [4] opined that market distortion by price policy for agricultural commodities is one of the major causes for regional dispersion of competitiveness of indian wheat. singh [5] employed cmsa model to analyze the india’s exports performance of major commodity groups during the post-liberalization period (1991-2011). the findings revealed that the increased world demand is the major contributing factor for export growth from india. however, the exports from india are highly prone to changing external environment and trading policies of importing countries. alberto’s [6] study revealed that spain has experienced stiff competition from china and other emerging economies and this led to decline in export share of commodities. however, the former enjoyed more export competitiveness compared to other european advanced economies. mamta [7] employed cmsa model to analyze and compare export competitiveness of cotton between india and china. it is found interesting that both the countries improved their export competitiveness post multi fiber agreement (mfa) and the comparative picture revealed that china outpaced india. though india is the second largest producer of cotton in the world, it could not keep a cotton buffer, unlike china. so, maintenance of buffer stocks is essential to regulate cotton prices and for streamlining cotton supply to the domestic industry at competitive rates. varalakshmi and suresh [8] employed cmsa model and found that bovine meat exports were more competitive in new markets compared to traditional export destinations. so, the policy should focus on penetrating into new markets at the same to promote competitiveness in the traditional markets to enhance bovine meat trade. sonu and rajni [9] employed cmsa model and found that export growth of wheat in india is attributed only to world demand effect (wde) and market distribution effect (mde) and concluded that there is competitive disadvantage in the wheat exports as compared to rest of world. though cmsa model is popular and has wider adoptability in quantifying the export performance and in determining the factors underlying the export potential of commodities etc., there are certain limitations and associated criticisms with respect to its potential. the results of cmsa are sensitive to the extent of market consolidation [10,11]. for example, market consolidation as in european union has varied results over the individual component markets with respect to analysis using cmsa model. moreover, the selection of destination markets also can have impact on the results. the selected regions should ideally have true competitors only for obtaining optimum results using cmsa model and however, this situation of availability of true competitors is not realistic [10,12]. however, considering its broad consistent framework, this model still serves as a popular tool to explore the export potential of commodities over a period of time for a given country. 3. materials and methods the india’s export performance with reference to major agricultural commodities viz., apples; cashew nuts, shelled; chillies and peppers, dry; cotton lint; maize; mangoes, mangosteens, guavas; rice; sorghum; wheat and agricultural products, total has been examined by using the cmsa model [5,13]. the period from 1991 to 2020 was considered for the study in view of data availability for all the selected commodities and their major importers in the world. the relevant data on india’s exports both commodity-wise and country-wise, imports of selected commodities across major importing countries and world agricultural products exports are collected from www.fao. org. 3.1 cmsa model introduced by tysznskin [14] and richardson [10] and later, ahmadi-esfahani [15] adapted jepma’s [16] version to analyze the competitiveness of agricultural commodities in the international market. this model is often employed to analyze the structural changes in international trade both in terms of exports and imports [17] and thus, ascertain the export performance of a country across major geographical destinations in the world [18]. this model helps to decompose the world exports into four categories or effects viz., wde, the commodity composition effect (cce), the mde and the residual competitiveness effect (rce). it is interesting that this model explains the divergence between actual export growth and export growth computed on the assumption the focus country’s export share of each commodity in each market remains constant. following is the main equation of the cmsa model in terms of actual export change: ∆x = r + r + – + ∆x (1) where, ∆x = actual change in india’s agricultural exports http://www.fao.org http://www.fao.org 29 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 (difference between 2020 and 2011); r = percentage increase in total world (excluding india) exports from period 2011 to period 2020; = percentage increase in world (excluding india) exports of commodity “i” from period 2011 to period 2020; = percentage increase in world (excluding india) exports of commodity “i” to country “j” from period 2011 to period 2020; = india’s exports of commodity “i” to the rest of the world in period 2011, and india’s exports of commodity “i” to country “j” in period 2011. in the above equation (1), r represent mde; r represent cce; represent to mde and ∆x represent rce. the analysis is done in ms excel. wde: this effect analyzes the increase/decrease in focus (india) country’s exports due to general increase/ decrease in world exports. so, a positive/negative value of wde indicates an increase/decrease in focus country’s exports due to general rise/fall in world demand given a constant market share of the focus (india) country. cce: this effect measures the magnitude of concentrations of country’s export composition in products/commodities, where import demands are high. it is the weighted sum of export values of selected commodities. the weights are calculated by subtracting the individual commodity’s growth rate from the world’s total export growth rate in aggregate (represented by “r” in previous formula). a positive cce indicates that the focus country’s exports are concentrated for those commodities whose demand is increasing at a higher rate than aggregate growth rate (r) of the total world exports. a negative cce value indicates the inverse situation. mde: this is a measure of the magnitude of country’s export concentrations to those markets (importing countries), where the demand is growing relatively higher or slower rate as compared to total growth of world exports of particular commodity in those markets (presented by ri in previous formula). it is the weighted sum of export values for individual commodities directed to a particular importing country. a positive value of mde indicates that a focus country’s exports are directed to relatively growing markets. a negative value indicates that the exports of the focus country are concentrated in markets where demand is growing slowly than the rest of the world. rce: this will assess the difference between actual change in focus country’s exports and changes that would have taken place if the constant market share has been sustained in those markets by the focus country. this is a residual term, as from the actual change in the exports of the focused country, the earlier three effects i.e., wte, cce and mde have been deducted. if this residual term is positive, it means there is improvement in the focus country’s competitiveness and vice versa. 3.2 actual increase in exports this is the difference between agricultural exports of focus country (india) between 2020 and 2011. this is given by: = x1-x0 (2) where, = actual increase in exports of the focus country (india); x1 = actual value of exports of focus country in the period 2020; x0 = actual value of exports of focus country in the period 2011. 3.3 potential increase in exports this is derived from the following formulae: ( )/100 (3) where, = potential value of focus country’s exports in period 2020; = value of world exports in period 2020; = share of focus country in world exports in period 2011. so, = x0, = potential increase in focus country’s exports practical utility: this analysis shed light on the on the export performance of major agricultural commodities from india through splitting it across various effects viz., wde, cce, mde and rde. this helps the policy makers to reveal the underlying reasons for export performance of selected agricultural commodities and overall exports. it also enables the researchers to compare the export performance from india with other competing countries and thereby, help to figure out the competitiveness of focus country in global trade. accordingly, relevant policy suggestions can be figured out to enhance the export competitiveness of india. 4. results and discussion 4.1 growth in exports of selected commodities from india table 2 shows the growth in exports (both in terms of quantity and value) of selected commodities and agricultural products, total from india during 1991 to 2020. the findings revealed that india registered noticeably positive and significant export growth rates both in terms of quantity and value for all the selected commodities, ex30 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 cept wheat and cashew nuts, shelled (quantity) during the overall reference period, 1991-2020. across the selected commodities, chillies and peppers, dry showed promising performance during all the selected sub-periods, except in terms of value during 1991-2000. sub-period, 2001-2010 was found favourable to register positive and significant export growth rates of apples, cotton lint, maize, mangoes, mangosteens, guavas and sorghum. though total market size in importing countries is dwarfed by increased production volumes, the above commodities are well-suited to value-added processing. on the contrary, majority of the commodities viz., apples, cashew nuts, shelled, cotton lint, maize and mangoes, mangosteens, guavas registered declining growth performance during sub-period 3, i.e., 2011-2020. though these commodities enjoyed increased exports in the past decade, their exports in the recent decade found more challenging in the context of increasing demand for sanitary and phyto-sanitary (sps) requirements, increased competition from foreign producers (cashew), high rates of import duties, declining incentives (for cotton), higher transaction costs (mangoes, mangosteens, guavas) etc. it is important to note that though pakistan and bangladesh enjoyed duty free or concessional duty access in india, in turn, they imposed higher higher rates of duty on indian yarn. further, countries like bangladesh and vietnam enjoy duty-free access in world’s largest cotton yarn markets such as china, unlike india. the positive and significant growth rates both in terms of quantity and value for apples and sorghum during sub-period 2, i.e., 2001 to 2010 has compensated their respective poor performances during other two sub-periods viz., 1991-2000 and 2011-2020 and thus, these commodities registered impressive (significant) growth rates during overall reference period, 1991-2020. it is quite disheartening to note that wheat, one of the major cereal crops cultivated in the country had shown dismal (negative) performance both in terms of quantity and value during all the selected sub-periods and hence, the export performance is not significant during the overall reference period. this is because, export ban significantly influenced export volume of wheat. the ratio of domestic market price and international price has a strong adverse significant impact on wheat exports [19]. table 2. export growth (%) of selected commodities from india during 1991 to 2020 commodity 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020 1991-2020 quantity value quantity value quantity value quantity value apples –6.927 –7.188 13.381** 17.317** –3.878 –3.950 4.060** 5.695** cashew nuts, shelled 4.670** 5.193* 0.696 5.987** –9.010** –6.305* 1.055 3.372** chillies and peppers, dry 11.336* 7.281 16.023** 26.100** 6.220** 8.586** 12.004** 15.289** cotton lint –20.410 –18.478 82.631** 95.665** –11.085** –12.339** 16.060** 18.240** maize 64.522 50.833 47.547** 9.247** –20.587* –20.195* 33.167** 34.457** mangoes, mangosteens, guavas 7.915** 2.397 21.888** 32.057** –6.501** –3.262* 9.130** 12.370** rice 98.802* 104.933** –3.806 15.192 13.134 10.195 40.601** 45.398** sorghum –3.225 –3.152 64.096** 75.969** –9.349 –7.263 34.575** 37.640** wheat –42.029 –36.082 –75.734** –71.540** –23.874 –24.618 12.178 15.165 agricultural products, total 3.029* 12.037** 1.103 6.254** note: ** & * significant at 1 and 5 percent levels respectively raw data source: www.fao.org 31 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 4.2 percent share of india’s exports in the world table 3 highlights the share of india’s exports in terms of selected commodities and agricultural exports, total in world agricultural exports and their respective growth (both actual and potential) in value terms (us$ millions) between 2011 and 2020. the findings revealed that india’s exports of agricultural products, total rose from us$ 30291.63 million to us$ 32083.77 million, i.e., by us$ 1792.14 million (5.92%) and accordingly, the actual increase in exports is higher than the potential (of us$ 1412.08 million) offered by the growth of world trade. however, the share of india’s agricultural products, total in world’s agricultural exports declined from 2.29 per cent to 2.15 per cent during 2011 to 2020. regarding commodity-wise exports, india’s share in world trade during 2020 compared to 2011 showed impressive performance with reference to chillies and peppers, dry; rice and wheat, unlike other commodities during the above reference period. only chillies and peppers, dry registered rapid (actual) increase in exports (us$ 603.53 million) over and above the potential increase (us$ 245.26 million) during the selected period. however, for other commodities, their respective actual increase in exports is far lower than their potential exports. it is interesting that the actual increase in exports is positive for chillies and peppers, dry (us$ 603.53 million) followed by rice (us$ 112.47 million), wheat (us$ 97.62 million) and sorghum (us$ 0.48 million). regarding country-wise performance (table 4), india’s share in world’s total imports showed increasing trend for bangladesh (from 8.28% to 10.12%), iran (from 0.13% to 0.60%) and thailand (from 0.92% to 1.03%). accordingly, the actual increase in exports is higher than potential increase in these three countries. however, for other selected countries, it is disappointing that the share of india’s exports showed a declining trend during the reference period and further, their actual increase in exports is considerably less than respective potential increase in exports. it is interesting that the actual increase in exports is highest for bangladesh (us$ 546.17 million) followed by thailand (us$ 43.90 million), iran (us$ 36.88 million) and saudi arabia (us$ 4.23 million). on the whole, though india’s exports of agricultural products, total showed considerable increase in absolute (value) terms, its share in world agricultural exports showed a declining trend during 2011 to 2020. the impressive total export performance in terms of absolute value over and above the potential increase can be attributed to lower trade barriers in developed countries followed more recently by developing countries and india’s structural reforms (especially external sector reforms) at domestic level. further, reduction in tariffs/non-tariffs barriers across the importing countries, depreciation of indian rupee (historical low of 76.91 on 1.1.2020) and development of export promotion zones (epzs) has laid favourable environment for boosting overall agricultural exports from the country. further, buoyed by rising global food prices since june 2020 with countries coming out of lockdowns and lifting the curbs imposed on trade, indian agricultural exports have benefitted from favourable prices and according there is actual increase in exports during the reference period. however, the worry-some aspect is regarding the declining trend in share of india’s exports (agricultural products, total and for majority of selected agricultural commodities) in world agricultural exports in the liberalized regime. on the supply side, the main focus of the government’s policies is to ensure the nation’s self sufficiency of staple commodities, distributing the production among the urban and rural poor on subsidy and maintaining sufficient stocks by procurement largely from rural areas. the rising food prices resulting from the widening demand-supply gap consequent to the population increase have resulted in a major political issue forcing the government to hasten many unsuccessful measures to counter price hikes of essentials such as pulses, rice, sugar and wheat. the government utilized input subsidies and msps as key domestic policy tools to promote agricultural interests by encouraging domestic production for food self-sufficiency. this hiked the farm subsidy and domestic support bill at about $51.2 billion during 2016-2017, which included certain farm input subsidies, price supports, storage and public food distribution. further, in this direction, india directed its focus towards export control and highly restricted the import regime. india’s trading potential is also hurdled by trade barriers, market-distorting policies and government’s excessive involvement in the marketing and procurement aspects of agricultural goods. india’s capacity to export has been hampered by some factors on the importers’ side such as high agricultural tariffs, sps and non-tariff barriers like quality standards, import bans, labeling and packaging rules. as the recent covid-19 outbreak shocked the world’s economies since 2020, there are apprehensions that agricultural businesses may suffer decline. however, notwithstanding the covid-19 pandemic, india’s agricultural exports have shown remarkable growth aided by favourable domestic weather conditions and export curbs implemented by many countries. however, future prospects of these exports depend on how much the latest surge in covid-19 infections in india affects its agricultural production and global demand conditions. during 2021, the pandemic induced curbs and lockdowns 32 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 have not adversely impacted the production and export of agricultural products. there is spectacular growth of a few products that have led the overall growth in exports. the five products in this regard are wheat, vegetable oils, other cereals, molasses and non-basmati rice [20]. the exceptionally robust growth in exports of these products has led to their total share increasing by 140 per cent in agricultural exports during 2021. the bumper harvest of these commodities is the key factor behind higher agricultural exports from india. the increasing agricultural exports from india during the past one decade and the satisfactory performance even during the covid-19 pandemic has prompted the researchers to analyze the india’s export performance across selected commodities and countries and decompose the same into wde, cce, mde and rce through fitting cmsa model. 4.3 decomposition of india’s exports across selected commodities it is interesting to note from the table 5 and figure 1 that between 2011 to 2020, india’s agricultural products, total exports in absolute terms increased by us$ 1792.15 million. this was largely attributed to the highly positive mde (us$ 1761.51 million) followed by the wde (us$ 821.28 million). however, both cce (us$-216.41 million) and rce (us$-574.22 million) are found to be negative. the higher value of actual increase in india’s exports compared to its potential increase implies higher competitiveness of indian agricultural products during the reference period. so, it can be inferred that wde and mde are the main sources of india’s agricultural export performance, unlike cce and rce due to changes in external environment (trading policies of importing countries and covid-19 pandemic). regarding decomposition of export performance of selected commodities, the cce is equal to zero as percentage increase in total world exports (r) and percentage increase in total world exports of commodity i (ri) would be equal, that is, (r = ri). the findings revealed that chillies and peppers, dry realized highest actual increase of us$ 603.53 million in its value, followed by rice (us$ 112.47 million), wheat (us$ 97.62 million) and sorghum (us$ 0.482 million). on the other hand, the export values for cotton lint (us$ –1947.17 million), maize (us$ –696.90 million), cashew nuts, shelled (us$ –490.92 million) and mangoes, mangosteens, guavas (us$ –63.90 million) showed declining trend. in case of all nine commodities analyzed, the wde was found to be positive for six commodities viz., apples; cashew nuts, shelled; chillies and peppers, dry; maize; mangoes, mangosteens, guavas and rice ranging from us$ 0.86 million (apples) to us$ 779.13 million (cashewnuts, shelled), unlike for remaining three commodities viz., cotton lint; sorghum and wheat. on the contrary, the mde was negative in case of five commodities namely, cashewnuts, shelled (us$ –680.64 million); chillies and peppers, dry (us$ –440.97 million); cotton lint (us$ –131.65 million); rice (us$ –115.46 million) and sorghum (us$ –2.76 million) and positive in case of the remaining four commodities. similarly, the rce was also found to be negative in case of five commodities and was found to be the lowest in case of maize (us$ –5373.83 million) and highest in case of chillies and peppers, dry (us$ 721.80 million). on the whole, the commodity-wise analysis asserts that positive net export performance of chillies and peppers, dry and rice could be attributed to higher wde and rce. in case of sorghum, positive value of rce and in case of wheat, positive values of both mde and rce contributed for their positive net export performance during the reference period. 4.4 decomposition of india’s exports across selected countries (markets) it is interesting from table 6 and figure 2 that in case of country-wise analysis, the mde is equal to 0 as ri = rij. during this period, actual increase in india’s exports was the highest in case of iran (us$ 1035.83 million), followed by saudi arabia (us$ 702.43 million), bangladesh (us$ 585.11 million) and thailand (us$ 29.07 million). the wde is found to be highest with china mainland (us$ 1568.95 million), followed by vietnam (us$ 1240.37 million) and bangladesh (us$ 1076.66 million). on the other hand, it is lowest with uae (us$ –384.02 million) followed by usa (us$ –34.62 million) and iran (us$ –10.95 million). positive cce was recorded in case of china, mainland, iran, uae and usa. it was highest with uae (us$ 1157.14 million), followed by usa (us$ 187.50 million), china, mainland (us$ 102.90 million) and iran (us$ 7.27 million) and lowest with vietnam (us$ –1035.08 million), followed by bangladesh (us$ –726.11 million) and thailand (us$ –45.94 million). as india could not diversify their exports across above three export destinations, the cce recorded negative values again, the rce was recorded to be negative in five markets. highest negative value was recorded in case of china, mainland (us$ –2904.50 million) and the lowest in case of thailand (us$ –1.61 million). it is interesting that the negative values of rce contributed to decline in india’s exports across the selected markets, except thailand. positive values of wde contributed to actual increase in india’s exports for bangladesh (also rce), saudi arabia (also rce) and thailand. highly negative cce was compensated by positive wde in case of bangladesh and thailand. how33 r es ea rc h on w or ld a gr ic ul tu ra l e co no m y | v ol um e 03 | is su e 02 | ju ne 2 02 2 ta bl e 3. p er ce nt ag e sh ar e of in di a in th e w or ld e xp or ts o f s el ec te d co m m od iti es (v al ue in u s$ m ill io n) d ur in g 20 11 a nd 2 02 0 c om m od it ie s 20 11 20 20 a ct ua l ∆ in i nd ia ’s ex po rt s p ot en ti al ∆ in i nd ia ’s ex po rt s (a ∆ /p ∆ )* 10 0 w or ld e xp or ts (r s) in di a’ s ex po rt s (r s) w or ld e xp or ts ex cl i nd ia (r s) sh ar e of i nd ia ’s ex po rt s in w or ld ex po rt s (% ) w or ld ex po rt s (r s) in di a’ s ex po rt s (r s) w or ld e xp or ts ex cl i nd ia (r s) sh ar e of i nd ia ’s ex po rt s in w or ld ex po rt s (% ) a pp le s 71 49 .6 0 14 .8 0 71 34 .8 0 0. 21 75 65 .6 8 14 .0 7 75 51 .6 2 0. 19 -0 .7 3 14 .7 1 67 9. 45 c as he w n ut s, sh el le d 30 37 .1 7 89 5. 14 21 42 .0 3 29 .4 7 44 10 .6 7 40 4. 23 40 06 .4 4 9. 16 -4 90 .9 1 12 8. 64 77 .7 4 c hi lli es a nd pe pp er s, d ry 13 17 .2 2 49 7. 05 82 0. 17 37 .7 3 24 53 .2 4 11 00 .5 8 13 52 .6 6 44 .8 6 60 3. 53 24 5. 26 10 8. 33 c ot to n lin t 20 84 1. 55 33 95 .6 9 17 44 5. 86 16 .2 9 14 03 2. 70 14 48 .5 2 12 58 4. 18 10 .3 2 -1 94 7. 17 31 6. 51 3. 15 m ai ze 33 78 6. 74 10 86 .1 8 32 70 0. 57 3. 21 36 75 0. 36 38 9. 28 36 36 1. 08 1. 06 -6 96 .9 0 17 0. 08 58 .8 0 m an go es , m an go st ee ns , g ua va s 13 71 .5 2 20 1. 36 11 70 .1 7 14 .6 8 31 95 .8 4 13 7. 46 30 58 .3 8 4. 30 -6 3. 90 18 7. 61 53 .3 0 r ic e 79 5. 51 23 .8 5 77 1. 67 3. 00 11 87 .8 2 13 6. 32 10 51 .5 0 11 .4 8 11 2. 47 14 2. 32 72 3. 12 so rg hu m 17 17 .3 2 15 .9 9 17 01 .3 4 0. 93 17 09 .4 2 16 .4 7 16 92 .9 6 0. 96 0. 48 18 .0 5 55 4. 17 w he at 46 86 3. 89 14 5. 45 46 71 8. 45 0. 31 44 83 4. 11 24 3. 07 44 59 1. 04 0. 54 97 .6 2 99 .0 2 30 9. 98 o th er p ro du ct s 12 04 56 4. 65 24 01 6. 14 11 80 54 8. 51 1. 99 13 76 07 1. 26 28 19 3. 79 13 47 87 7. 47 2. 05 41 77 .6 5 89 .8 8 4. 74 a gr ic ul tu ra l pr od uc ts , t ot al 13 21 44 5. 18 30 29 1. 63 12 91 15 3. 56 2. 29 14 92 21 1. 09 32 08 3. 77 14 60 12 7. 32 2. 15 17 92 .1 4 14 12 .0 8 7. 08 r aw d at a so ur ce : w w w .fa o. or g ta bl e 4. p er ce nt ag e sh ar e of in di a in th e ov er al l i m po rt s of s el ec te d co un tr ie s (v al ue in u s$ m ill io n) d ur in g 20 11 a nd 2 02 0 c ou nt ri es 20 11 20 20 a ct ua l ∆ in i nd ia ’s ex po rt s p ot en ti al ∆ in i nd ia ’s ex po rt s (a ∆ /p ∆ )* 10 0 o ve ra ll im po rt s in di a’ s ex po rt s w or ld im po rt s ex cl i nd ia sh ar e of i nd ia ’s ex po rt s in w or ld im po rt s ex cl i nd ia (% ) o ve ra ll im po rt s in di a’ s ex po rt s w or ld im po rt s ex cl i nd ia sh ar e of i nd ia ’s ex po rt s in w or ld im po rt s ex cl i nd ia (% ) b an gl ad es h 73 80 .2 1 61 0. 74 67 69 .4 7 8. 28 11 42 6. 66 11 56 .9 1 10 26 9. 75 10 .1 2 54 6. 17 37 2. 32 30 .9 4 c hi na m ai nl an d 95 51 7. 54 24 26 .6 6 93 09 0. 89 2. 54 15 76 93 .9 0 85 2. 71 15 68 41 .1 6 0. 54 -1 57 3. 95 17 1. 79 65 .6 1 ir an 10 17 1. 70 13 .0 7 10 15 8. 64 0. 13 83 31 .3 8 49 .9 5 82 81 .4 3 0. 60 36 .8 8 17 .0 5 58 6. 66 m al ay si a 18 67 4. 35 41 1. 05 18 26 3. 30 2. 20 17 61 0. 11 73 .3 0 17 53 6. 81 0. 42 -3 37 .7 5 12 .5 80 0. 00 sa ud i a ra bi a 19 55 3. 53 88 .9 5 19 46 4. 58 0. 45 20 47 2. 96 93 .1 8 20 37 9. 79 0. 46 4. 23 17 .7 7 56 2. 65 t ha ila nd 97 94 .8 0 89 .9 1 97 04 .8 9 0. 92 13 03 5. 97 13 3. 81 12 90 2. 15 1. 03 43 .9 0 34 .7 1 28 8. 18 u a e 14 02 1. 19 23 9. 70 13 78 1. 49 1. 71 16 36 6. 14 19 6. 23 16 16 9. 91 1. 20 -4 3. 47 47 .6 8 20 9. 73 u sa 10 71 41 .1 0 40 2. 08 10 67 39 .0 0 0. 38 14 64 94 .7 0 11 5. 68 14 63 79 .0 3 0. 08 -2 86 .4 0 41 .0 5 24 3. 60 v ie tn am 12 44 4. 25 23 7. 97 12 20 6. 28 1. 91 21 76 5. 68 17 9. 49 21 58 6. 20 0. 82 -5 8. 48 22 .2 3 -4 49 .8 5 o th er s 10 26 74 7. 00 25 77 1. 53 10 00 97 5. 01 2. 51 10 79 01 4. 00 29 23 2. 52 10 49 78 1. 10 2. 71 34 60 .9 9 30 3. 26 32 .9 7 to ta l a gr ic ul tu ral im po rt s 13 21 44 5. 00 30 29 1. 63 12 91 15 3. 56 2. 29 14 92 21 1. 00 32 08 3. 77 14 60 12 7. 32 2. 15 17 92 .1 4 10 46 .3 6 9. 56 r aw d at a so ur ce : w w w .fa o. or g 34 r es ea rc h on w or ld a gr ic ul tu ra l e co no m y | v ol um e 03 | is su e 02 | ju ne 2 02 2 35 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 table 5. decomposition of india’s total agricultural products exports across selected commodities during 2011-2020 (value in us$ million) commodities actual ∆ in india’s exports wde cce mde rce apples –0.73 (100.00) 0.86 (–118.57) 0.00 16.62 (–2279.68) –18.21 (2498.25) cashew nuts, shelled –490.92 (100.00) 779.13 (–158.71) 0.00 –680.64 (138.65) –589.41 (120.06) chillies and peppers, dry 603.53 (100.00) 322.70 (53.47) 0.00 –440.97 (–73.07) 721.80 (119.60) cotton lint –1947.17 (100.00) –946.29 (48.60) 0.00 –131.65 (6.76) –869.24 (44.64) maize –696.90 (100.00) 121.59 (–17.45) 0.00 4555.35 (–653.66) –5373.83 (771.11) mangoes, mangosteens, guavas –63.90 (100.00) 324.91 (–508.50) 0.00 –9.80 (15.34) –379.01 (593.16) rice 112.47 (100.00) 8.65 (7.69) 0.00 –115.46 (–102.65) 219.28 (194.97) sorghum 0.48 (100.00) –0.08 (–16.34) 0.00 –2.76 (–572.17) 3.32 (688.50) wheat 97.62 (100.00) –6.62 (–6.78) 0.00 34.92 (35.77) 69.32 (71.01) agricultural products, total 1792.15 (100.00) 821.28 (45.83) –216.41 (–12.08) 1761.51 (98.29) –574.22 (–32.04) note: figures in parentheses indicate percent to respective total raw data source: www.fao.org figure 1. decomposition of india’s total agricultural products exports (us$ million) across selected commodities (2011-2020) ever, negative cce in case of majority of the selected markets indicates india’s specialization in exporting the commodities having slow growing world demand during the study period. it is important that since december, 2019, the export curbs imposed by the majority countries in view of covid-19 pandemic have affected the cce and rce of majority of the selected commodities. that is, though domestic food security was not threatened during covid-19 pandemic, the export curbs across the major importing countries led to lower actual increase in exports 36 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 of selected commodities compared to their respective potential exports. however, in countries like bangladesh, iran and thailand, the actual increase in exports is greater than their respective potential exports in view of their importing policies and government contracts to import and stock under present circumstances of covid-19. so, this pandemic also helped india to augment exports to these countries. while unrelated to covid-19, the ongoing political disturbances in myanmar have diverted grain demand of southeast asia towards india and their exports increased to vietnam, thailand and malaysia [21]. table 6. decomposition of india’s total agricultural products exports across selected countries during 2011-2020 (value in us$ million) commodities actual ∆ in india’s exports wde cce mde rce bangladesh 585.11 (100.00) 1076.66 (184.01) –726.11 (–124.10) 0.00 234.55 (40.09) china mainland –1232.66 (100.00) 1568.95 (–127.28) 102.90 (–8.35) 0.00 –2904.50 (235.63) iran 1035.83 (100.00) –10.95 (–1.06) 7.27 (0.70) 0.00 1039.52 (100.36) malaysia –102.44 (100.00) 7.57 (–7.39) –29.88 (29.17) 0.00 –80.12 (78.22) saudi arabia 702.43 (100.00) 11.47 (1669.74) –10.41 (–990.54) 0.00 701.37 (–579.20) thailand 29.07 (100.00) 76.62 (160.79) –45.94 (297.47) 0.00 –1.61 (–358.26) uae –828.91 (100.00) –384.02 (–162.40) 1157.14 (–81.09) 0.00 –1602.02 (343.49) usa –204.81 (100.00) –34.62 (–24.65) 187.50 (–54.55) 0.00 –357.68 (179.20) vietnam –477.09 (100.00) 1240.37 (–120.72) –1035.08 (–681.82) 0.00 –682.38 (902.53) note: figures in parentheses indicate percent to respective total raw data source: www.fao.org figure 2. decomposition of india’s total agricultural products exports (us$ million) across selected countries (2011-2020) 37 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 5. conclusions findings of the cmsa revealed that though indian exports of agricultural products, total showed increasing trend (absolute terms), the shares of selected commodities’ exports and agricultural products, total in total world agricultural exports showed declining trends during the past decade, 2011 to 2020. all the selected commodities except wheat registered significant and positive growth rates in terms of value of exports during 1991-2020. it is heartening that even with the advent of covid-19 pandemic and the imposition of export curbs by the importing countries, the india’s export performance in bangladesh, iran and thailand markets showed impressive performance. this was mainly attributed to wde compared to cce, mde and rce. that is, the competiveness of india’s exports remained prone to high inconsistency arising out of changing external environment and import restrictions in view of covid-19 pandemic. both mde and rce with respect to commodity-wise exports and cce and rce with respect to country-wise exports are found negative for majority of commodities and countries (markets) respectively. these findings are in tune with the indonesian cinnamon exports, as the mde was found negative implying the difficulty of its exports to the us market [22]. however, the findings are contrast to china’s performance of high technology, medium technology and low technology exports, as it is mainly attributed to its competitive strength in the global market, though decreasing trend has been observed in the competitiveness of all three categories [23]. in view of these findings, sustaining india’s agricultural export performance deserves special attention through boosting cce, mde and rce. this will certainly depend on india’s internal situation and global demand conditions. further, it would also depend on whether importing countries continue to maintain export restrictions and trade curbs. since, india’s overall agricultural export performance seem satisfactory during the past decade, it is essential to promote export competitiveness through withstanding export curbs imposed by the importing nations in the context of pandemic, foreign exchange rate fluctuations (not only absolute but relative also) and able to respond quickly to changes in external trade environment should deserve special attention. accordingly, boosting the export competitiveness in traditional markets and exploring new markets to increase the export share is of immediate concern to make india as major player in the world trade. so, in the future, india should focus on countries where it enjoys competitive advantage to increase foreign exchange in the years to come. so, india should harness its agricultural export potential, through suitable policy instruments, to make india global power in agriculture and raise farmers income. public and private stakeholders across the value chain of each agricultural commodity should be updated with innovative solutions to address the challenges of upgrading the products, technologies, business models, policy environments etc., to realize competitive trade in the global market [24]. one of the important limitations of cmsa is that it considers demand as an exogenous component and further the exporters help generate demand by activating innovation and product differentiation processes [25]. so, price competitiveness alone cannot explain about the market penetration, as the demand evolution is influenced by a number of policies being implemented by the exporter countries. conflict of interest there is no conflict of interest. references [1] singh, k., sain, i., 2003. prospects of agricultural exports of india: a composite index approach. indian journal of agricultural economics. 58(4), 781799. [2] directorate general of commercial intelligence and statistics (dgci&s), kolkata, under the ministry of commerce, government of india. [3] cook, m.l., breadhl, m.e., 1991. agribusiness competitiveness in the 1990s: discussion. american journal of agricultural economics. 73(5), 14721473. [4] pursell, g., gupta, a., 1997. trade policies and incentives in indian agriculture: methodology, background statistics and protection and incentive indicators, 1965-1995. new delhi: policy research working paper series 1953, the world bank (background paper no.1). [5] singh, k., 2014. a constant market share analysis of india’s export performance. foreign trade review. 49(2), 141-161. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0015732514525190 [6] gonzález pandiella, a., 2015. a constant market share analysis of spanish goods exports, oecd economics department working papers, no. 1186, oecd publishing, paris. doi: https://doi.org/10.1787/5js69lb4b5mt-en [7] pankaj jain, m., 2017. constant market share analysis of export competitiveness of cotton: a comparative study of india and china. pacific business review international. 10(1), 77-84. 38 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 [8] varalakshmi, k., devatkal, s., 2017. competitiveness of indian bovine meat exports-constant market share analysis. indian journal of animal sciences. 87(8), 1026-1033. [9] madan, s., sharma, r., 2018. trade competitiveness of indian wheat during post-reform period, asian review of social sciences. 7(1), 25-32. [10] richardson, j.d., 1971. some sensitivity tests for a constant market share analysis of export growth. the review of economics and statistics. 53, 300304. [11] bowen, h.p., pelzman, j., 1980. a constant market share analysis of u.s. export growth. economic discussion paper no. 10. u.s.: department of labour. [12] margarida, p.f., rayment, p., 1984. export of manufactures from south european countries: deman and competitiveness factors. journal of world trade law. 8, 235-251. [13] veeramani, c., 2007. sources of india’s export growth in pre and post-reform periods. economic and political weekly. xlii(25), 2419-2427. [14] tyszynskin, h., 1951. world trade in manufactured commodities, 1899-1950. the manchester school of economics and socials studies. 19(3), 272-304. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1951.tb00012.x [15] ahmadi-esfahani, f.z., 1995. wheat market shares in the presence of japanese import quotas. journal of policy modeling. 17(3), 315-323. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0161-8938(94)00036-f [16] jepma, c.j., 1989. extensions of the constant-market-shares analysis with an application to long-term export data of developing countries. the balance between industry and agriculture in economic development. international economic association series, palgrave macmillan uk. pp. 129-143. [17] richardson, j.d., 1971. constant market shares analysis of export growth. journal of international economics. 1(2), 227-239. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(71)90058-4 [18] capobianco-uriarte, m., aparicio, j., de pablo-valenciano, j., 2017. analysis of spain´s competitiveness in the european tomato market: an application of the constant market share method. spanish journal of agricultural research. 15(3), e0113. doi: https://doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2017153-10629 [19] kozicka, m., kalkuhl, m., saini, s., et al., 2015. modelling indian wheat and rice sector policies. indian council for research on international economic relations. [20] love, j., 1984. external market conditions, competitiveness, diversification and ldc’s export. journal of development economics. 16, 279-291. [21] murali, d., palit, a., 2021. india records high agricultural export growth amidst covid-19 pandemic, isas briefs, quick analytical responses to occurrences in south asia. [22] sari, e.t., divinagracia, m.r.g., 2021. revealed comparative advantage and constant market share analysis of indonesian cinnamon in the world market. international journal of economic policy in emerging economies. 14(2),187-198. [23] bagaria, n., ismail, s., 2019. export performance of china: a constant market share analysis. frontiers of economics in china. 14(1), 110-130. doi: https://doi.org/10.3868/s060-008-019-0007-9 [24] neven, d., 2014. developing sustainable food value chains guiding principles. food and agriculture organization of the united nations, rome. [25] fagerberg j., sollie g., 1985. the method of constant-market-shares analysis revisited. central bureau of statistics of oslo, wp n. 9. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1951.tb00012.x https://doi.org/10.1016/0161-8938(94)00036-f https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(71)90058-4 22 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: asmera adicha, southern agricultural research institute, jinka agricultural research center, snnpr, jinka, ethiopia; email: asmera05@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i3.568 received: 27 june 2022; received in revised form: 27 july 2022; accepted: 8 august 2022; published: 1 september 2022 citation: adicha, a., alemayehu, y., ermias, g., darcho, d., 2022. value chain analysis of korarima (aframomum corrorima) in south omo zone, snnpr ethiopia. research on world agricultural economy. 3(3), 568. http://dx.doi. org/10.36956/rwae.v3i3.568 research article value chain analysis of korarima (aframomum corrorima) in south omo zone, snnpr ethiopia asmera adicha1* yidnekachew alemayehu2 gedion ermias1 dawit darcho1 1. southern agricultural research institute, jinka agricultural research center, snnpr, jinka, ethiopia 2. southern agricultural research institute, areka agricultural research center, snnpr, areka, ethiopia abstract: korarima is a known cash crop in the south omo zone and provides a wide range of economic and sociocultural benefits. even though its economic and socio-cultural importance the development of the korarima sector along with the value chain is hampered by several constraints. hence, the study aimed to analyze the korarima value chain in the south omo zone. using a two-stage sampling technique, 120 kororima producers were selected to collect primary data through structured questionnaires. descriptive statistics and econometrics model (multivariate probit model) were used for data analysis. the study identified three major korarima market outlet choices such as collectors, retailers, and wholesalers as alternatives to korarima producers to sell the majority of their products. thus, collectors accounted for 82.2%, wholesalers (73.6%), and retailers (35.5%) of the total sold. the results of a multivariate probit model indicated that sex of household, credit access, family size, price information, market distance, and extension contact of farmers significantly affected the market outlet choice decisions in one or another way. furthermore, no brand indicating this crop, inadequate infrastructural development, and market accessibility, weak extension services regarding improved varieties were major problems identified. therefore, it is better to work on the brand name of this particular crop to trace up to the end market, infrastructural development and market accessibility, extension services provided regarding the improved korarima variety, and accessing formal market information from the concerned body are essential to enhance korarima producers’ benefit and bargaining power through avoiding information asymmetry. keywords: value chain; market outlet; multivariate; korarima; south ari mailto:asmera05@gmail.com http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i3.568 http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4557-5468 http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3365-8063 23 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 1. introduction agriculture remains the main activity in the ethiopian economy. agricultural growth is not only required to feed the country but is also the driving force to generate foreign exchange. about 80% of ethiopia’s foreign exchange is derived from agricultural exports [1]. enhancing agricultural production and export trade is the current strategy followed by the country to curtail the critical capital shortage and enhance economic growth. spices have a major stake in the production system and the foreign earnings of the country. it has a great role in transforming farmers into producers for the market instead of producing merely for subsistence [2]. ethiopia has become one of the largest consumers of spices in africa. people use spices to flavour bread, butter, meat, soups, and vegetables. they also use spices to make medicines and perfumes [3]. ethiopia is a homeland for many spices, such as ethiopian korarima (korarima/aframomum corrorima), long red pepper, black cumin, white cumin/bishops weed, coriander, fenugreek, turmeric, sage, cinnamon, and ginger [3]. out of the 109 spices listed by international organization for standardization (iso), 50 spices are cultivated or grown in ethiopia. apart from this, there are several other spices and herbs available in small quantities [4]. the average land covered by spices is approximately 222,700 ha and the production is 244,000 tons per annum. however, the supply has dwindled considerably in recent years and the ethiopian korarima export was less than 100 mt in 2012. the production of ethiopian korarima during the 2014/2015 crop season was 9.56 thousand tons with a productivity of 5.1 q/ha. in ethiopia, southern national and nationalities peoples regional states (snnp) is one of the regions which produce the maximum quantity of spices in the country. the major ethiopian korarima production areas are the forest ecology of south and south west mid-altitude and highland korarima areas such as the kaffa zone (center of origin of korarima), bench-maji zone, sheka zone, majang zone, dawuro zone, wolayita zone, and gamo gofa zone, kembata-tembaro zone in snnpr and jimma zone (oromiya). the price of a kilo of dry korarima capsule in the domestic market ranges from 80 birr to 100 birr (one us$ = 21 birr) in the villages. ethiopia exports about 200 mt of ethiopian korarima per year [4]. in south omo zone korarima is also abundantly found and potentially grown/produced by smallholder farmers of south ari, semen ari, and salamago districts. in the zone, for the past five consecutive years about 16,843.96 ha, korarima has grown with a production of around 70,744.63 quintal with average productivity of 4.2 quintal/ha [5]. korarima has a contribution to income generation and also has value in reducing/minimizing poverty for smallholder farmers. despite, its availability, huge potential, and the role it plays, limited attention has been given to its production, value, value addition activities, and marketing outlets choice. as result, the unregulated price of korarima (black market), south omo zone korarima is transported to gofa by the black market, and recognition and benefit from it are given to the former gamo gofa zone. and also small farm gate prices and less market access are disadvantageous for producers. therefore, this study focused on identifying major value chain and marketing actors, value additive activities in production, outlet choice in the marketing of korarima and its products, and identifying the major value chain and marketing opportunities and constraints. 2. research methodology 2.1 type and sources of data qualitative and quantitative data were collected from primary and secondary data sources. the primary data on the value chain and marketing of korarima, value chain, and marketing channels, direct and indirect benefits of korarima, supply and market price of korarima, transaction cost in marketing korarima, main actors and their role, margin share and distribution among market actors, marketing infrastructure and information, market participants and concentration at each market chain, opportunities and threats of korarima production and marketing, farmers perception will be collected from key value chain actors and stakeholders. value chain actors and marketing stakeholder includes sample producers, collectors, traders, exporters, consumers, enterprise operators engaged in the value chain and marketing of korarima, end-users of the products, formal and informal institutions involved in korarima value chain and marketing, supporters of korarima value chain and marketing, as well as representatives from government organizations and others working in korarima production. secondary data were collected from literature, reports, and documents both published and unpublished data sources. 2.2 methods of data collection to collect the primary data both participatory rural appraisal (pra) tools of informal methods and formal survey methods of data collection were employed. informal survey methods such as focus group discussions (fgds), in-depth interviews with key informants (kii), and direct observation with transacting walk will be employed, 24 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 whereas for the formal survey method, structured survey questionnaires were administered to sample respondents. informal survey such as focus group discussion with known social strata groups (e.g. women, youths, elders, others) was conducted before the formal survey. a questionnaire was pre-tested to indorse new information and to modify the structured questionnaire. open discussion with producers, traders, consumers, and exporters & were interviewed according to their activities or function (as value chain analysis starts from production up to final consumption). 2.3 sampling technique two-stage sampling technique was employed to draw the sample from a given population of korarima producers and traders. in the first stage, potential korarima producing and marketing kebeles were identified purposively. in the second stage, sample households were identified by random selection. yemane [6] sample size determination formula was used to determine the number of respondents. 2(1 ) n n n e = + ∗ (1) where, n=the sample size, n=total number of korarima producers, e=acceptable sampling error, and the value of ‘e’ is 95% confidence level and it’s assumed to be e=0.05. after determination of sample size, the sample respondent from smallholder household was selected randomly from sample kebeles. 2.4 data analysis both simple statistics and econometric models were chosen for the analysis. the econometric analysis was employed to analyze factors affecting the level of market outlet choice and value addition. software called statistical package for social science (spss) and stata were used for the analysis. 2.4.1 econometric model specification this study used a multivariate probit model as it captures the household variation in the choice of market outlets and estimates several correlated binary outcomes jointly. a multivariate probit model would be appropriate for jointly predicting these three choices (collector, retailer, and wholesaler) on an individual-specific basis. a multivariate probit model simultaneously set out the influence of a set of explanatory variables on the choice of market outlets, while allowing for the potential correlations between unobserved disturbances as well as the relationship between the choices of different market outlets [7]. in this case, three-outlet choices are collector, retailer, and wholesaler and the model enables korarima producers to choose more than one outlets that are not mutually exclusive to get a better price. the selection of appropriate market outlet i by farmer j is cijy defined as the choice of farmer j to transact market channel i ( cijy =1) or not ( cijy =0) is expressed as follows; yij c = 1 if yij c = xij c αij + εc ≥ 0 ⇔ xij c ≥− εc 0 if yij c = xij c αij + εc < 0 ⇔ xij c <− εc' (2) where v cijα aector of estimators, yij c = 1 if yij c = xij c αij + εc ≥ 0 ⇔ xij c ≥− εc 0 if yij c = xij c αij + εc < 0 ⇔ xij c <− εc' is a vector of error terms under the assumption of normal distribution, cijy dependent variable for market outlet choices simultaneously and cijx combined effect of the explanatory variables. the selection of one type of market outlet choice would be dependent on the selection of the other, since smallholder farmers’ choice decisions are interdependent, suggesting the need to estimate them simultaneously. to solve this problem many scholars suggested and used a multivariate probit simulation model [8,9]. since smallholder farmers’ market outlet choice decisions were expected to be affected by the same set of explanatory variables. collectorj = x'1β1 + εa retailerj = x'2β2 + εb wℎolesalerj = x'3β3 + εc (3) where collector j, wholesaler j, and retailer j are binary variables taking values 1 when farmer j selects collector, wholesaler, and retailer respectively, and 0 otherwise; x1 to x4 is a vector of variables; β1 to β3 a vector of parameters to be estimated and ε disturbance term. in a multivariate model, the use of several market outlets simultaneously is possible and the error terms jointly follow a multivariate normal distribution (mvn) with zero conditional mean and variance normalized to unity, and ρij represents the correlation between endogenous variables, given by    …..n 0 0 0 1 12 13 21 1 23 31 32 1 (4) e (/) = 0 var (/) = 1 cov (/) =  (5) 2.4.2 description of variables and expected sign the likely variables, which were supposed to affect producers’ market outlet choice decisions, are explained in table 1. 25 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 3. results and discussion 3.1 socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the respondents this sub-section explains the profile of sampled respondents regarding their age, sex, family size, experience, level of education, access to extension services, access to market information, and distance from the nearest market (table 2). gender was analyzed by checking the number of male and female-headed households. out of the total households interviewed 95.8% were male-headed households while 4.2% were female-headed households. in both theoretical and practical situations, education level plays an important role in ensuring household access to basic needs such as food, shelter, and clothing. skills and education enhance working efficiency resulting in more income and food security. in the study area, the mean grade level achieved by respondents was about grade 6. the minimum grade was 0 for those who were illiterate and the maximum was grade (10+3). the age of sample respondents was measured in years and provided a clue on the working ages of households. the mean age of the sample household was 37 years with the minimum and maximum age of 18 and 65 years, respectively. the mean family size of the total sample households was nearly 7 persons with a minimum of 2 and a maximum of 12 persons and a standard deviation of 2.67. therefore, this might help them for a better market outlet choice of households during korarima marketing because of labor availability. the respondents have an average of 17 years of farming experience in korarima production and marketing with a standard deviation of 11 years. the total land size of sampled farmers varies from 0.13 to 3 hectares and the average farm size for sampled farmers is found to be 0.78 hectares with a standard deviation of 0.53. from the total land size, the land allotted to korarima was on average 0.29 ha with a minimum of 0.03 and a maximum of 1.5 ha with a standard deviation of 0.24. according to the sample respondents, the major sources of income were crop, livestock, and livestock product selling, and also there is some practice of getting off-farm and non-farm sources. the total estimated average annual income that the respondents obtained from those sources was 12,192 birr. distance to market is an important variable that affects the marketing of korarima. the mean distance to the market center for sample households was 18 minutes with a minimum of 10 and a maximum of 50 minutes of walking on their barefoot and a standard deviation of 2.67. farmers who are located distant from the market center might be weakly accessible to the market outlet and have less transportation cost and time spent. 3.2 korarima (aframomum corrorima) cultivation practice in the study area korarima is a known cash crop in the south omo zone and cultivation of it is mainly practiced in the agro forestry and river banks of south and semen ari areas of the zone. according to getasetegn and tefera [10], the cultivatable 1. summary of hypothesized explanatory variable that determines korarima producers’ market outlet choices explanatory variables measurement expected sign sex 1 if a male farmer, 0 if a female farmer -/+ age years + education level(formal) years of schooling (grade) + family size family members in a household living for more than 6 months (number) + land size the total area of land managed by a household (hectare) + annual income an annual income of a household (ethiopian birr) + price information 1 if a household has price information of korarima, 0 otherwise -/+ extension contact contact with extension agents in a month (frequency) + access to credit 1 if farmer has access to credit service, 0 otherwise + distance to a market center distance to the nearest market center by foot walk (minute) quantity produced the quantity of korarima produced in a year (kilogram) + experience experience of farmers producing korarima (years) + 26 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 tion of the korarima is mainly practiced in the forests of south and south western parts of ethiopia such as gamo gofa, south omo, kaffa, ilubabor, sidamo and wellega. it provides a wide range of benefits for communities such as cultural value, income generation, and soil conservation. in the study area, korarima is used as traditional medicine and it has also important in supporting local livelihood improvement and environmental conservation. it plays a great role in the household economy and livelihood support by selling. a discussion with key informants (zone, woreda, and kebele experts) the main opportunities in the study area concerning korarima cultivation was suitable agro-ecology, high demand for the korarima, and availability of traders from other areas. however, the main constraints for the korarima production in the study area are no practice of provision of improved seedlings, disease, and poor harvesting practice. as seen in table 3 the average land size covered by korarima per household was 0.29 hectares with a maximum of 1.5 hectares. 3.2.1 land preparation as depicted in the table 3 more than half (59%) of korarima cultivators practiced land preparation with oxen plow. on the other hand, 31% of cultivators used pit digging without oxen plow and few farmers used both oxen plow and pit digging (10%). as the cultivation of korarima is intermingled with agro forestry and river banks in the study area and it is difficult for oxen to plow because rhizomes and leaves of it spread over and cover the ground. due to this condition, farmers cleared land to remove some shrubs and bushes and let korarima sucker expand around the area freely on the cleaned land without any management practices near shade trees. 3.2.2 planting method and propagation in the study area, there were no improved varieties of the korarima sucker and all farmers cultivate the local korarima sucker. as per focus group discussion with model farmers, elders, and development agents they reported that suckers from nursery fields for plantation give a higher yield than directly suckers propagated in the field. however, most farmers didn’t practice as such on nursery plantations. the absence of improved variety coupled with problems of climate change effect and associated diseases decreased the production and productivity of producers. the lack of improved varieties and weak agronomic practices are major production constraints in ethiopia [11]. in the study area producers simply propagate korarima from both rhizomes and seeds, and most producers used land clearing by removing some shrubs and bushes and, letting korarima sucker be propagated around the area freely through its rhizomes. in the study area, once the korarima sucker is planted, it sets seeds after 3-4 years and it continues to bear seeds many times. 3.2.3 harvesting and handling of korarima in the study area in the study area, the harvesting of korarima was done based on visual observation of matureness by a color change from green to red and the size of the capsules. in addition, easiness to detach the capsules from the mother stalk plant and complete drying up of the capsule’s upper tip (straw) were also taken into account during harvesting. capsules that were free from insect or physical damage, unbleached, and uniform in color for the particular stage were considered during the harvesting time. more than half (52%) of korarima producers used sun drying, 20% table 2. the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of sample households respondents (120) variables minimum maximum mean std. dev age of respondent(years) 18 65 37.49 10.97 family size(number) 2 12 6.63 2.67 education level(grade) 0 10+3 4.77 3.72 experience in korarima marketing(years) 2 50 16.77 11.47 landholding(ha) 0.13 3 0.78 0.53 land covered by korarima(ha) 0.03 1.5 0.29 0.24 annual income (birr) 10000 60000 12192 10078 distance to market (minute) 10 50 18.76 10.74 frequency % sex of respondents male 115 95.8 female 5 4.2 source: own survey, 2021 27 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 used smoke drying 28% used both sun and smoke drying (table 3). as revealed by the sample respondents sun drying is preferred by traders because it keeps the quality korarima. most of the respondents revealed immature capsule harvesting at a green stage in the study area was practiced and it affected the quality of korarima and the reason for the lack of attractive price. 3.3 marketing of korarima in the study area 3.3.1 selling practice of producers and associated problems there are different ways of exchange or units of transaction in the study areas (table 4). these are counting the number of fresh korarima seeds and weighing scale (price per kilogram) for dried korarima. according to sample respondents, almost all respondents sold their korarima directly to the purchaser. however, the problems that have been created by the brokers during the marketing of korarima were taken to the limited traders (38.3%), charging high brokerage fees (4.2%), cheating on weighing (1.7%), and providing wrong price/market information (55.8%). about 70.8% of sample respondents reported that they face difficulty in finding buyers when they want to sell korarima whereas only 29.2% said there was no difficulty in finding buyers. as per the sample respondents’ report, the reason for facing difficulty in finding the buyers of korarima in the study area was low price offered (35.3%), lack of good market & information (22.4%), and inaccessibility of the market or long-distance transport (42.3%). however, the sample respondent revealed that they have been sold korarima at a lower price even though they didn’t get the expected price for their korarima. and some others took back home and wait for another market. the result of the survey indicates that an alternative market and the existence of a limited number of traders that made smallholder korarima producers sell at low prices in the study area were absent. 3.2.2 buying and selling activities of traders as provided in table 5, as per the trader’s interview, the major suppliers of korarima in the study area were farmers, collectors, and brokers. during korarima marketing the traders informed that the transaction for the korarima took place at the market center (66.7%), farmers bring their korarima up to their business center (25%) while only 8.3% of the transaction takes place at their farm gate. according to traders, 70% of traders cover the cost of transportation service for the farmers when they provide their korarima to the business center whereas 30% of those didn’t cover the transportation costs. in the study area, high demand and supply of korarima were from september up to december whereas low demand and supply of korarima were from march up to august. the total quantity of korarima purchased by the traders amounted to 640 qt. and each trader has purchased on average 121.8 qt. with an average buying price of 130 birr per kg. table 3. land preparation and drying of korarima land preparation frequency % drying method frequency % oxen plow 71 59 sun drying 62 52 pit dig 37 31 smoke drying 24 20 both oxen plow & pit dig 12 10 both sun and smoke drying 34 28 source: own survey, 2021 table 4. korarima marketing by producers problems in korarima selling frequency % problems in finding buyers frequency % limited of traders 46 38.3 face difficulty in finding buyers 85 70.8 charge high brokerage fee 5 4.2 no difficulty in finding buyers 35 29.2 cheating weighing scale 2 1.7 reason for facing difficulty low price offered 30 35.3 lack of good market 19 22.4 lack of good price 67 55.8 inaccessibility to market 36 42.3 source: own survey, 2021 28 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 the total quantity of korarima sold by the traders amounted to 300 qt. and each trader has sold on average 112.4 qt. with an average selling price of 210 birr per kg last year. the retailers and collectors sold korarima at the woreda market while the wholesalers have been selling at addis ababa with an average selling price of 210 birr per kg. during a discussion with traders, they reported that they obtain market information from other traders. the majority of traders use their source of capital to run their businesses. however, traders indicated that credit access for their business was poor in the study area. concerning storage majority of traders have their storage with a maximum capacity of 150 qt. on average at a time. as reported by traders, the main constraints for them in the study area were very poor infrastructural development, poor quality supply of korarima, and the presence of illegal traders. the average age of traders was 36.25 years which ranges between 27 and 52 years. the average family size of the traders was 5 with a minimum of 3 and a maximum of 8. concerning educational level, the trader’s majority lies between grades two and twelve. the average marketing experience of the traders was 8.75 with a minimum of 1 year and a maximum of 15 years of experience. 3.3.3 the value-adding activities of producers or traders the main trader’s value-adding activities in the study area were cutting, cleaning, drying, grading, transportation and packaging. figure 1 shows the value-adding functions of the producers or traders. on the other hand, table 6 shows the value addition practices of korarima in the study area as about 90.83% indicated that they keep the korarima quality to provide to the market whereas 9.17% didn’t keep the quality. the sample respondents indicated the major value-adding activities conducted by the farmers in the study area were cleaning (43.1%), storage (27.5%), transportation (2.8%), and both cleaning and storage (21.1%) whereas storage and transportation (5.5%). about 87.5% indicated that there was a price difference due to value addition with an average price difference of 20-30 birr per kg whereas 12.5% didn’t know about the price difference. table 5. personal characteristics of traders and buying/selling activities variables maximum minimum average age 52 27 36.25 family size 8 3 5.2 education level 12 2 8.1 experience 15 1 8.1 total quantity purchased last year(kg) 640 2 121.8 buying price/kg 160 110 130 total quantity sold last year(kg) 300 2 112.4 selling price/kg 270 125 210 buying place frequency % cover transportation cost market 80 66.7 yes no business center 30 25 84(70%) 36(30%) farm gate 10 8.3 source: own survey, 2021 table 6. value addition of korarima value addition of korarima frequency percent keep the korarima quality yes 109 90.83 no 11 9.17 value-adding activities cleaning 47 43.1 storage 30 27.5 transportation 3 2.8 cleaning and storage 23 21.1 storage and transportation 6 5.5 price difference due to value addition yes 105 87.5 no 15 12.5 29 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 3.4 access to institutional service of farm households 3.4.1 access to credit service finance is the crucial element starting from korarima production up to harvesting and marketing of the product but producers do not take credit specifically for korarima production. as depicted in table 7, about 40.8% of sampled producers had access to credit while 59.2% had no access to credit in the study area. however, only 21.7% of those who received credit while 78.4% didn’t receive credit last year. the major purpose for those who received credit was input purchase, purchase of livestock for fattening, and land rent purpose. the sample respondents indicated that the credit was provided by omo micro-finance which has a problem with taking credit regarding inadequate supply and high-interest rates. some respondents have used their friends and relatives as a source of credit in the study area. according to the sample respondents, the reasons for not receiving the credit were high-interest rates, unfavorable repayment time, restrictive procedure, no need, lack of collateral, and fear of inability to repay. 3.4.2 access to extension service of the respondents, about 79.2% have access to an extension whereas only 20.8% of the sample respondents didn’t have access to an extension. however, concerning extension services to korarima production last year, only 28.4% of the sample respondents have been got extension services while 71.6% didn’t get. the type of extension services that has been provided for the sample respondents in the study area were planting methods, harvesting and post-harvest handling price information, and marketing of korarima. this indicates that the extension service provided to korarima production and marketing was very less as compared to other types of extension services provided for crops in the study area. the survey result indicated that the average number of contacts the extension agents made with the sample respondents was 5.5 times per month (table 7). 3.4.3 access to transportation services concerning transportation services (table 7), the sample respondents indicated that the majority (81.7%) of those who have no means of transportation supply their korarima to the market while only 18.3% have their transportation. the means of transportation for those who used to take their korarima to the market were by cart (5%), pack animal (79.2%), and carrying and using a bicycle (15.8%). the average transportation costs per 100 kg to take to the market by motorcycle or cart were 47.26 birr. the sample respondent also revealed that about 85% of the majority have no long-standing customers with buyers whereas only 15% have a long-standing customer with a buyer. 3.4.4 market/price information better information can improve farmers’ bargaining power, reduce search costs, and reduces transportation costs. as revealed in table 7 below about 44.2% of respondents get market information whereas 59.2% of respondents didn’t get price information. the main source of price information that producers get for korarima marketing in the study area in search of last week’s market information (37.7%), from traders (28.3%), experts communication (11.3%), and some respondents who sold their products without market information (22.6%). 3.4.5 bargaining power of the sample respondents concerning negotiation on price during korarima selling (figure 2), the majority (66.7%) of sample respondents indicated that the price-setting was made by buyers, 26.7% was by brokers and the rest 6.7% was made by the farmers. this result indicates that the korarima producers have poor bargaining power on the korarima marketing in a b c figure 1(a-c). value-adding activities of korarima in the study area 30 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 the study area which has made them price takers. due to low price offer by traders in the study area the korarima producers have been discouraged in the production of this crop. this might have called the concerned body to intervene in such a poor korarima marketing system in the study area to benefit smallholder korarima producers. the result indicates that buyers have a great role in setting the price which discouraged the farmers to participate in this business here is the figure that shows the price setting of korarima. figure 2. korarima price setting in the study area 3.4.6 quantity of korarima produced and marketed the sample respondents during the survey indicated that almost all respondents have been involved in korarima production as well as marketing. as presented in table 8, the average quantity of korarima produced and marketed per individual sampled household head was about 1.92 quintals and 1.72 quintals respectively. according to sample respondents, the average marketing costs such as packing, loading, and transportation costs incurred during korarima marketing per sampled household was 126.53 birr with a minimum of 65 birr and a maximum of 260 birr which was based on the quantity of korarima to be marketed. the unit marketing cost per quintal of korarima was 73.55 birr. the average harvesting cost per sampled individual household head was 475.86 birr. table 8. quantity of korarima produced and marketed quantity of korarima produced and marketed (n=120) minimum maximum mean quantity of korarima produced per household in qt. 0.01 8 1.92 quantity of korarima marketed per household in qt. 0.01 10 1.72 unit price per kg 30 260 114.72 the cost incurred in korarima marketing per household (birr) 65 260 126.5 harvesting cost per household (birr) 20 3000 475.86 source: own survey, 2020 3.5 korarima value chain and marketing actors and their function in the chain according to survey results, five major korarima value chain actors were identified in the study area. these are producers, collectors, wholesalers, retailers, consumers, and also other value chain supporters. table 7. access to services variables frequency % frequency % access to extension service yes 95 79.2 extension to korarima yes 27 28.4 no 25 20.8 no 68 71.6 mean extension contact (month) 5.5 times access to credit service yes 49 40.8 received credit yes 26 21.7 no 71 59.2 no 94 78.3 access to transportation yes 22 18.3 means of transportation cart 6 5 no 98 81.7 pack animal 95 79.2 carrying & bicycle 19 15.8 long stand customer yes 18 15 no 102 85 get price information yes 53 44.2 source of price information traders 15 28.3 no 67 55.8 experts 6 11.3 last week market 20 37.7 no information 12 22.6 source: own survey, 2021 31 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 korarima producers: these are the main actors in the value chain who produces korarima on their farmland. they were the primary link actors who cultivate and supply korarima to the market. their main source of seedlings is farmer to farmer and no support has been provided by any extension agent or government. producers sell their produce at the farm gate or village and district markets. collectors: these are actors that collect a large volume of korarima at the farm gate from the smallholder korarima producer and provide it to the wholesaler in the study area. the main market outlets for the collectors in the study area were wholesalers. wholesaler: wholesaler is traders that collect a large volume of korarima from collectors and mainly sell to retailers. they play a significant role in the market chain who mainly known for the purchase of bulky products with better financial and information capacity as well as reside in the town. they are major actors in the channel and they purchase korarima either directly from the farmer or mainly through collectors. retailers: retailers are known for their limited purchasing with low financial and information capacity. they are the main actors along the channel and deliver korarima to the consumer in small amounts in the study area. consumers: consumers are the final purchasers of korarima mostly from retailers for consumption purposes only and it is the last link along the channel. 3.6 korarima market channels the smallholder korarima producers have been sold using different korarima marketing outlets. there are five korarima marketing channels have been identified in the study area. according to survey results, it was estimated that the total amount of korarima supplied to the market by the sampled households was 206.4 qt. the highest volume of sales of korarima was taken in channels four and five which indicates that the flow of korarima market in the study area is concentrated on these channels. but channels one and five are the most advantageous korarima market channels for the producers; both channels make producers gain collective bargaining power and also help them get a fair market price. the market channels that have been identified in the study area were: channel i: producer consumers (12.6 qt or 6.1%) channel ii: producers collectors retailer consumer (13.5 qt or 6.5%) channel iii: producer retailer consumer (25.4 qt or 12.3%) channel iv: producers collector wholesaler retailers consumer (81.5 qt or 39.5%) channel v: producers wholesaler retailers consumer (73.4 qt or 35.6%) 3.7 korarima market performance marketing margin analysis for each value chain actor was used to determine the market performance of the korarima. from the result, the korarima producers’ gross profit was highest in channels i, v, and iii respectively while they take the lowest gross profit when they sell to collectors in channels ii and iv which accounts for 106.5 birr/kg. this implies producers are more profitable if they sold directly to consumers, wholesalers, and retailers respectively. as indicated in table 9, the total gross marketing margin (tgmm) is highest in channels iv (61.1%) and v (58.9%), and lowest in channels ii (10.8%) and iii (6.7%). this difference might support the theory that as the number of marketing agents increases the producer’s share decreases. for instance, without considering channel i where the producer directly sold korarima to consumers, the maximum producer’s share (gmmpr) is highest in channel iii which was 93.3% of the total consumers’ price. the reason is, that the more the number of middlemen in the korarima market, the more profit they retain for their services whether they add value to the item or not. this is in line with the findings of kassa et al. [12] who suggested that the share of market intermediaries in the consumer’s price was large and there was a need to reduce market intermediaries to minimize the marketing margins. 3.8 korarima value chain map and market route in the south omo zone value chain mapping is the process of developing a visual depiction of the basic structure of the value chain and illustrates the way the product flows from raw material to end markets and presents how the industry functions. it highlights the point that most goods and services are produced by a complex and sequenced set of activities [13]. as discussed by scholars springer-heinze [14]; lundy et al. [15]; gebre et al. [16] value chain map is usually an integral part of most value chain analyses that clearly show chain actors, interrelationships, and functional roles, stakeholders involved in the chain, boundaries of the system, a flow of goods, payments, information along the chain, and their businesses interconnection to form one system. hence, the below figure 3 discussed korarima value chain actors (main actors and supporters) are the major components of these korarima value chain maps. the market route is the pathway to providing the product in front of your customers and identifying the most effective channels for the product that will maximize profit. deciding how to sell and selecting the right route to market is essential to the success of any product or service (figure 4). 32 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 table 9. korarima profit margin of value chain actors along different channels (birr/kg) actors korarima marketing channels i ii iii iv v producers(p) marketing cost 2 0.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 selling price 115 107 112 107 113 gross profit 113 106.5 110.5 106.5 111.5 gmmp (%) 100 89.2 93.3 38.9 41.1 local collector(c) purchase price 107 107 marketing cost 2 3 selling price 117 120 gross profit 8 10 gmmc (%) 8.3 4.7 retailer(r) purchase price 117 112 250 250 marketing cost 0.25 0.25 2 2 selling price 120 120 275 275 gross profit 2.75 7.75 23 23 gmmr (%) 2.5 6.7 9.1 9.1 wholesaler(w) purchase price 120 113 marketing cost 5 7 selling price 250 250 gross profit 125 130 gmmw (%) 47.3 49.8 tgmm (%) 0 10.8 6.7 61.1 58.9 source: own survey, 2020 figure 3. value chain map of korarima in south omo zone 33 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 figure 4. market routes of korarima 3.10 korarima marketing outlets choice of proper marketing outlets is one of the most important farm household decisions to sell their produce. the sampled respondents were asked if they choose different korarima market outlets to maximize the profit from their outlet choice decision. consequently, they reported that different korarima market outlets were used to sell their produce. these korarima market outlets include collectors, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers. these outlets are mostly chosen in combination with one another. table 10 shows the different korarima market outlets used by the korarima producers when selling their korarima. one of the most commonly used market outlets by producers is the collectors’ outlet which was chosen by about 83.4% of respondents with a mean supply of 165 kg, while about 75% of respondents sold to wholesalers with a mean supply of 164 kg. as retailers are also common korarima marketing outlets in the study area, around 35% of sample households sold to the retailers with a mean supply of 134 kg. as revealed by respondents the reason for choosing those marketing outlets was since there is a price difference among buyers (90%), closeness in distance (6.7%), and due to transport availability (3.3%) in the study area. 3.11 determinants of market outlet choices of smallholder korarima producers in the study areas, korarima producers have different market outlet choice options to sell their products. however, various factors affect producers to select the appropriate korarima channels. the decision of producers to choose such market outlets was determined by various demographic, socioeconomic, and institutional factors. the wald chi-square statistic was used to test the overall significance of variables. as presented in table 11, the wald test, wald chi2 (36) = 630.25, p = 0.000 is significant at the 1% level, which shows that the subset of coefficients of the model is jointly significant and that the explanatory power of the factors included in the model is satisfactory; thus, the mvp model fits the data reasonably well. likewise, the model is significant because the null that the choice decision of the three korarima market outlets is independent was rejected at a 1% significance level. the results of the likelihood ratio test in the model (lr chi2 (3) = 7.30897, prob > chi2 = 0.0627) indicate the null that the independence between market outlet choice decision (ρ21 = ρ31 = ρ32 = 0) is rejected at 10% significance level and there are table 10. description of korarima market outlets decision korarima market outlets collectors wholesalers retailers frequency % frequency % frequency % yes 100 83.4 90 75 42 35 no 20 16.7 30 25 78 65 supply to each outlet mean (kg) sd mean (kg) sd mean (kg) sd 165 118.4 164 98.3 134 63.9 reason for the price difference frequency % the price difference between other buyers 108 90 closeness in distance 8 6.7 transport availability 4 3.3 34 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 significant joint correlations for two estimated coefficients across the equations in the models. this confirms that separate estimation of a choice decision of these outlets is biased, and the decisions to choose the three korarima marketing outlets are interdependent household decisions. there are differences in market outlet selection behavior among producers, which are reflected in the likelihood ratio statistics of an estimated correlation matrix. separately considered, the ρ values (ρij) indicate the degree of correlation between each pair of dependent variables. the ρ21 (correlation between the choice for wholesaler and collector outlet) is negatively interdependent and significant at the 5% probability level whereas ρ31 (correlation between the choice for retailer and collector outlet) is positively interdependent and significant at the 10% probability level. this result leads us to the conclusion that korarima producers delivering to the wholesaler outlet are less likely to deliver to a collector (ρ21). likewise, korarima producers delivering to the retailer outlet are more likely to deliver to collector outlets (ρ31). this indicates a competitive relationship between wholesalers with collector outlets and retailers with collector outlets. the simulated maximum likelihood (sml) estimation result shows that the probability that korarima producers choose collector, wholesaler, and retailer market outlets was 82.2%, 73.6%, and 35.5%, respectively. this indicates that the likelihood of choosing a collector outlet is relatively high (82.2%) as compared to the probability of choosing a wholesaler (73.6%), and retailer (35.5%). the joint probabilities of success or failure of the three outlet choices also suggest that households are more likely to succeed in jointly choosing the three outlets. the likelihood of households jointly choosing the three outlets simultaneously is 21.8%, while their failure to jointly choose is 2.1%. the results of the mvp model (table 12) revealed that some variables were significant at more than one market outlet while some variables were significant in only one market outlet. among twelve explanatory variables included in the model, two variables (sex & credit access) affected significantly collector market outlets; three variables (price information, distance to market & and family size) significantly affected wholesaler outlets; four variables (extension contact, credit access, family size, and price information) significantly affected retailer market outlet choice at different probability levels. distance from the nearest market was found to have a negative and significant relationship with the likelihood of choosing a wholesaler outlet at less than a 1% significant level. this result revealed that for those households whose residence from the nearest market increases by a kilometer, the likelihood of households choosing a wholesaler market outlet decreases by 139.3%, ceteris paribus. this implies that households located far from the nearest market are less likely in delivering korarima produce to the wholesaler market outlet. the reason for this is that farmers located distant from the market are weakly accessible to the wholesaler market outlet, and the closer to the table 11. overall fitness, probabilities, and correlation matrix of the market outlets from the mvp model output attributes collector wholesaler retailer predicted probability 0.822 0.736 0.355 the joint probability of success 0.218 the joint probability of failure 0.021 estimated correlation matrix ρ1 ρ2 ρ3 ρ1 1 ρ2 –0.362**(0.161) 1 ρ3 0.348*(0.188) –0.141(0.193) 1 likelihood ratio test of ρ21 = ρ31 = ρ32 = 0: chi2(3) = 7.30897 prob > chi2 = 0.0627 number of draws (#) 5 number of observations 120 log pseudo-likelihood –159.51562 wald chi2(36) 630.25 prob > chi2 0.0000*** note: *, ** and *** significant at 5, 10 and 1% respectively. 35 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 market the lesser will be the transportation cost and time spent. this result is consistent with getahun [17] and alemu et al. [18] who found that distance to the market reduces the likelihood of producers selling to wholesaler market outlets. the frequency of extension contact has a negative and significant influence on retailer outlet choice decisions at a 1% significance level. extension services increase the ability of producers to acquire important price information as well as enable the korarima producers to improve production approaches, hence leading to more output which in turn increases producers’ ability to choose the best market outlet for their product. however, no extension services have been provided regarding korarima production or propagation for producers other than their cultural practices. thus, households who were not visited by extension agents were less likely to deliver korarima by retailer outlets. this is because producers who have no price information about korarima want to sell their produce at their farm gate for collectors or village market. access to price information is positively and significantly associated with the likelihood of choosing wholesaler and retailer outlets at 10 and 1% levels of significance, respectively. access to recent price information improves producers’ selling prices because market price information helps producers to analyze the price difference in their locality and the nearby main market which increases the probability of choosing wholesalers and retailers which give a relatively higher price to producers. market information has a positive and significant effect on retailer channel choice decisions of potato producers [19]. access to credit services is positively and significantly associated with the likelihood of choosing collector outlets at less than a 10% level of significance. as the farmers have accessed credit service, the probability of participating in a collector market outlet increases by 64.5%, ceteris paribus. the possible explanation is that getting credit services may enhance their production capacity and increase supply. so if they produce more products they simply choose to sell collector market outlet at their farm gate. the likelihood of households to choose a retailer market outlet was negatively influenced by access to credit services at less than 1% levels of significance. the finding revealed that as the farmers have not accessed credit service, the probability of participating in a retailer market outlet decreases by 102.2%, ceteris paribus. the possible explanation is that obtaining an appropriate korarima market outlet particularly nearby urban retailers is time consumable and needs transportation access. family size is negatively associated with the choice of wholesaler outlet at less than a 5% level of significance. this is since households with a larger family size may take the product to market in a different way or sale at the farm gate to a collector or take it to a retailer in a minimum amount, and less likely to deliver to wholesaler market outlet. the result revealed that in households whose family size increase by one more, the probability of participating in a wholesaler market outlet decreases by 14.1%, ceteris paribus. on the other hand, family size is positively associated with the choice of retailer outlet at less than 1% level of significance. this is since households with a larger family size have plenty of labor force to deliver korarima to retailer market outlets at nearby urban markets. this is in line with the tewodros [20] who indicated that large family sizes have better labor endowment so that households are in a position to travel to get retailers in the district or nearby town markets. the sex of the respondents is negatively and significantly associated with the likelihood of choosing collector outlets at less than a 1% level of significance. this result revealed that male-headed households are less likely to choose collector market outlets than their female counterparts. this means that male-headed households prefer to sell to a wholesaler at the nearby market than female and female-headed households prefer to sell the korarima at their farm gate because females fulfill their daily family demands. as compared to female-headed households, the likelihood of choosing collector market outlets by maleheaded households decreases by 426.7%, ceteris paribus. 3.12 opportunities and constraints along the korarima value chain in the study major constraints and opportunities along the korarima value chain in the study were identified in terms of input supply, production, and marketing. as seen in table 13 below, major constraints in input supply are lack of improved variety or sacker and absence of fertilizer use whereas shortage of land, no or weak extension services, disease, and post-harvesting problems are the production constraints. moreover, there is a serious marketing problem of korarima in the study area such as infrastructures like roads, no brand name of the product, and low farm gate price. the major opportunity in input supply is a demand of producers for improved variety or sucker. on the other hand, suitable agro ecology, fertile land, and the high demand of consumers are opportunities for production. intervention areas identified in input supply are a research effort to release new variety and extension efforts to further enhance the korarima production in the area. moreover, there is a serious road problem to transport the product to the market. 36 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 4. conclusions korarima is the main potential crop and income source for the study area. however, there is no brand indicating this crop, inadequate infrastructural development, and market accessibility, no extension services, and weak provision of adequate, timely, reliable, and formal market information in the study area. and also korarima in the study area has been marketed to the central market under the name of basketo korarima and difficult to trace up to the end market to identify the margin distribution along the chain. moreover, the results of a multivariate probit model indicated that credit access, family size, and price information to farmers significantly affected the market outlet choice decisions in one or another way. therefore, it is better to work on the brand name of this particular crop to trace it up to the end market since it is an economically important crop for the study area. adequate infrastructural development and market accessibility with a good facility are needed to enable the smallholder korarima producers in choosing better market outlets to increase the benefit. extension services provision regarding the korarima production, fertilizer use, and improved korarima variety supply to the smallholder farmer in the study area. the provision of adequate, timely, reliable, and formal market information from the concerned body is essential to enhance korarima producers’ benefit and bargaining power by avoiding information asymmetry. provision of credit access to producers is an important factor that enhances table 12. multivariate probit estimations for determinants of market outlet choices of korarima producers variable market outlet choices collectors wholesalers retailer coeff(std.err) coeff(std.err) coeff(std.err) sex –4.267*** (0.367) –0.320(0.554) –0.129(0.652) age 0.017(0.022) 0.030(0.019) –0.004(0.020) education level 0.001(0.042) 0.033(.042) 0.066(0.042) experience 0.002(0.015) –0.005(.017) –0.004(0.017) annual income –0.00003(0.00002) 0.00001(0.00002) –4.54e-06(0.00002) quantity produced –0.169(0.103) 0.197(0.188) 0.053(0.104) land size –0.049(0.088) –0.038(0.086) –0.125(0.088) access to credit 0.645*(0.371) 0.300(0.308) –1.022***(0.299) price information 0.327(0.351) 0.528*(0.319) 1.395***(0.316) market distance –0.044(0.416) –1.393***(0.397) –0.209(0.410) extension contact 0.029(0.021) –0.014(0.015) –0.053***(0.021) family size –0.042(0.069) –0.141**(0.060) 0.210***(0.074) constant 4.476***(0.838) 0.245(0.873) –1.752*(0.971) *, **, and *** = significance level at 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively. coeff = coefficient, std.err = standard errors in parentheses table 13. opportunities and constraints along the chain input supply production marketing constraints -lack of improved variety -absence of fertilizer use practice -shortage of land -no provision of extension services -disease -post-harvesting problem serious infrastructural problems -low price at the farm gate -no brand name opportunities demand for improved variety -suitable agro ecology -fertile land -high demand -highly demanded -high production interventions needed research extension services infrastructure development 37 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 the production capacity of producers and thereby enables them to choose a better outlet. acknowledgment we acknowledge the southern agricultural research institute, jinka agricultural research center (jarc) for funding this research. conflict of interest the authors disclosed no possible conflicts of interest. references [1] ethiopian economic association, 2008. report on the ethiopian economy: volume vii. addis ababa, ethiopian. [2] dessalegn, g., 2015. analysis of factors determining the supply of ethiopian korarima spice (aframomumcorrorima): a case from bench maji zone of snnpr, ethiopia. european journal of business and management. 7(1), 56-63. [3] international trade centre, 2010. spice sub-sector strategy for ethiopia. addis ababa, ethiopia. [4] peethambaran, c.k., girma, h., haimanot, m., et al., 2016. spice india, english. [5] south omo zone, korarima & spice department, 2009. annual korarima & spice production and productivity report. [6] yemane, t., 1967. statistics, an introductory analysis, and ed., new york: harper & row. [7] belderbos, r., carree, m., diederen, b., et al., 2004. heterogeneity in r&d cooperation strategies. international journal of industrial organization. 22(8-9), 1237-1263. [8] melese, t., goshu, d., tilahun, a., 2018. determinants of outlet choices by smallholder onion farmers in fogera district amhara region, northwestern ethiopia. journal of horticulture and forestry. 10(3), 27-35. [9] dessie, a.b., abate, t.m., mekie, t.m., 2018. factors affecting market outlet choice of wheat producers in north gondar zone, ethiopia. agriculture & food security. 7(1), 91. [10] getasetegn, m., tefera, y., 2016. biological activities and valuable compounds from five medicinal plants. natural products chemistry & research. 4(4), 1-10. doi: https://doi.org/10.4172/2329-6836.1000220 [11] lupi, a., mitiku, t., temtme, s., et al., 2016. influence of rooting media on nursery performance of korarima (aframomum corrorima) at tepi, southwestern part of ethiopia. journal of horticulture. 3(1), 1-4. [12] kassa, t., akililu, a., tesfaye, g., et al., 2020. value chain analysis of banana in bench maji and sheka zones of southern ethiopia, cogent food & agriculture. 6(1), 1785103. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311932.2020.1785103 [13] humphrey, j., navas-alemán, l., 2010. value chains, donor interventions, and poverty reduction: a review of donor practice. ids research report no. 63. brighton, uk: institute of development studies (ids). [14] springer-heinze, a., 2007. value links manual: the methodology of value chain promotion. eschborn, germany: deutsche gesellschaft für technische zusammenarbeit (gtz) gmbh. [15] lundy, m., amrein, a., hurtado, j., et al., 2014. link methodology: a participatory guide to business models that link smallholders to markets (second ed.). centro international de agricultural tropical (ciat). http://ciatlibrary.ciat.cgiar.org/articulos/ciat/methodology.pdf. [16] gebre, g., rik, e., kijne, a., et al., 2020. analysis of banana value chain in ethiopia: approaches to sustainable value chain development. cogent food & agriculture. 6(1), 1-31. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311932.2020.1742516 [17] getahun, t., 2018. determinants of commercialization and market outlet choices of tef: the case of smallholder farmers in dendi district of oromia, central ethiopia, haramaya university. [18] alemu, a., erik, m., miet, m., et al., 2012. vertical coordination in the local food chains: evidence from farmers in ethiopia. international journal of economics and finance studies. 4(1), 11-20. [19] bezabih, e., mengistu, k., jeffreyson, m., et al., 2015. factors affecting market outlet choice of potato producers in eastern hararghe zone, ethiopia. journal of economics and sustainable development. 6(15), 159-173. [20] tewodros, t., 2014. analysis of chickpea value chain and determinants of market options choice in selected districts of southern ethiopia. school of environment, gender and development studies, college of agriculture, hawassa university, ethiopia. journal of agricultural science. 6(10), 1916-9752. 18 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://journals.nasspublishing.com/index.php/rwae doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.848 received: 22 april 2023; received in revised form: 23 may 2023; accepted: 29 may 2023; published: 1 june 2023 citation: trujillo, h.a., bacha, c.j.c., 2023. agricultural research in colombia: counterpoint with the brazilian system. research on world agricultural economy. 4(2), 848. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.848 1. introduction in most latin american countries, the agricultural sector is an important source of income and employment. also, export earnings contribute to overall economic growth, poverty reduction, and the sustainable use of natural resources [1]. another of the functions attributed to agriculture in the economic development process is the production of food and raw materials to meet the demands of both domestic and foreign markets [2]. this function can be achieved, among other mechanisms, through agricopyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: heiber andres trujillo, department of crop science, luiz de queiroz college of agriculture (esalq), university of são paulo (usp), av. pádua dias 11, piracicaba, sp, 13418-900, brazil; email: hatrujillos@usp.br review article agricultural research in colombia: counterpoint with the brazilian system heiber andres trujillo1* carlos josé caetano bacha2 1. department of crop science, luiz de queiroz college of agriculture (esalq), university of são paulo (usp), av. pádua dias 11, piracicaba, sp, 13418-900, brazil 2. department of economics, administration and sociology, luiz de queiroz college of agriculture (esalq), university of são paulo (usp), av. pádua dias 11, piracicaba, sp, 13418-900, brazil abstract: this paper analyzes the evolution and structure of colombia’s agricultural research network, paying special attention to the role of government expenditures in modeling this system. the authors also compare the colombian agricultural network with the path followed by the brazilian agricultural sector, which has been considered a pattern in south america. for this purpose, a bibliographic review and historical and institutional data are presented. although agricultural research in colombia began in the early 20th century, it has evolved more recently with the creation of different public and private institutions linked to the national science and technology system. however, agriculture and its research sector have faced major challenges related to government endowments that are needed to fund infrastructure and demand for researchers, as well as lower competitiveness compared to their brazilian counterparts determined by social profit. keywords: competitiveness; technological development; institutions; social profit http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.848 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.848 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6604-9438 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2956-9017 19 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 cultural research, which allows the country to expand its range of processed products as well as increase productivity per area. agricultural research shows up for itself as a proposal for a sectoral approach, fundamentally aimed at benefiting the sector with a view to making it competitive and expanding its capacity to generate profits [3]. however, examining the impacts of research on food systems and, therefore, on farmers and consumers is a complex task. agricultural research is considered one of the conditioning factors of agricultural transformation [4], and it has been one of the key factors to explain the increase of agricultural productivity in south america during the last decades, especially in countries such as brazil, chile, and uruguay [5,6]. producer associations, research foundations, private sector companies, and universities have played an increasing role in the technological development in the region [1]. in turn, increased productivity in agriculture is one of the main sources of growth in the sector [7] and it is associated with greater investment in research in these countries. investment in agricultural research is characterized by returns much higher than those obtained in other activities. in the case of brazil, according to bonelli and pessoa [5], rates of return were in the order of 20% to 30% in the first half of the 1990s. more current data, such as the social balance of brazilian agricultural research company (embrapa), estimate an average rate of return on investments in agricultural research of 45.1% [8]. such investments afforded by the government expenditures have been beneficial to brazilian society. at present and by various indicators associated with it, it is evident that brazilian agriculture has become one of the leading and most competitive in the world. both the structure and funding of public research in agriculture have been essential to achieving this competitiveness. agricultural modernization in brazil, after the 1960s, was stimulated by government policies at different levels (particularly through rural credit policies, minimum prices, research, and agricultural extension). innovations in technology (resulting from investments in research) led to an increase in agricultural productivity [5]. in this process, the creation of the national agricultural research system (snpa), the role of embrapa, the role of state-funded research and technical assistance institutions, and the role of universities and private, for-profit and non-profit organizations stand out [9]. in colombia, agriculture was a determining sector in the country’s development during most of the last century, highlighted by the growth of coffee cultivation in different regions [10]. however, since the 2000s, agriculture has decreased its share in the colombian economy [11,12]. according to data from the world bank, the national administrative department of statistics (dane), and the national planning department (dnp), the contribution of agriculture to the colombian gdp went from 25% in 1965 to 22.30% in 1990 and reached only 6.30% in 2017. the loss in the contribution of agriculture and livestock to the colombian trade balance is the result, on the one hand, of the higher relative growth of other sectors and, on the other hand, of the low productivity of the sector itself. the low productivity of the agricultural sector also generates less development, especially in areas where agriculture has been considered the main economic vocation. during the last three decades, colombia’s economic growth has been driven by the advancement of sectors such as finance, mining, public services, electricity, and information and communication technologies. according to ludena [13], between 2001 and 2007, the growth rate of total factor productivity (tfpa) in colombia’s agricultural sector declined significantly. this, in part, reflects the lack of a fully structured agricultural research segment that is even capable of being competitive with these other sectors at the national level, as could be the case in brazil. agricultural research in colombia has progressively advanced and been strengthened with the creation of different institutions and diverse approaches. agricultural research began systematically in 1914 with the start of academic activities at the school of tropical agriculture and veterinarian of medellín. at that time, the prevailing view was that agriculture was restricted to the production of food for the domestic market, and there was an enormous need for technical personnel trained in the areas of agriculture, livestock, forestry, fisheries, and natural resources, as well as in post-harvest activities. although, since the creation of the national coffee research center (cenicafé) in 1938, colombia had centers specialized in different crops, it was only in 2017 that the national agricultural innovation system (snia) was established. the main objective of this system is to contribute to the improvement of productivity and competitiveness through the articulation of national and regional policies to encourage the development of science, technology, and innovation in the agricultural sector. currently, agricultural research in colombia includes a significant number of governmental entities, higher education institutions, nonprofit, private, and international entities working on it [14]. however, in order to measure, monitor, and compare the resources (human and financial), results, and performance a total factor productivity (tfp) can be defined as a ratio of total output to total inputs. thus, tfp is a unique measure designed to describe the efficiency of the use of inputs to achieve a total volume of final outputs. 20 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 of agricultural research and development systems in colombia over time, it is essential to have indicators that make it possible to evaluate the contribution of agricultural research to the country’s development. in this context, the general objective of this article is to analyze the evolution of agricultural research in colombia, paying attention to the institutional framework of the public sector, financial and human resources, and the results of the research system, trying to make a comparison with the existing agricultural research system in brazil. this article is based on a bibliographic survey, the collection of secondary data, and the analysis of technical reports on agricultural research in colombia and brazil, comparing them to identify facts that would allow the colombian system to position itself better in relation to the brazilian system. in gil’s [15] classification, this is exploratory research using the comparative research methodb. in addition to this introduction, the article comprises five more sections. the second section presents the literature review, placing the previous objective in the context of current knowledge about the subject under analyzing. section 3 presents the historical milestones of agricultural research in colombia and brazil. in sequence, section 4 presents a comparison between the entities conducting agricultural research in both colombia and their counterparts in brazil. section 5 analyzes the human and financial resources granted to agricultural research in these two countries (colombia and brazil), followed by section 6, which brings the final considerations of the article. 2. literature review the literature closest to this paper’s objective refers to works that address the origin and evolution of the agricultural research system and its current stage in brazil and colombia. in the case of brazil, for example, stumpfjunior and balsadi [3] present the historical evolution of brazilian agricultural research from 1500 until the creation of embrapa in 1973, the different approaches to agricultural research, and an agenda for its development. considering a more recent period, castro [16] complements the history and evolution of institutions conducting public agricultural research in brazil. this author advocates continuing the allocation of public resources to agricultural research because of the results it has achieved. addressing the situation existing at a given time, there is, for example, the work of dossa and segatto [17], who describe b according to gil [15], exploratory research is developed with the objective of providing an approximate vision of a given fact. on the other hand, the comparative method involves the investigation of individuals, classes, phenomena, or facts in order to highlight the differences and similarities between them. the institutions and interrelationships between public and private sector activities in agricultural research in brazil as they existed in the mid-1990s. they also emphasize the need for the brazilian government to continue investing in research and in the implementation of new forms of public-private partnerships in order to maximize the social benefits of scientific activity. more recently, moreira and teixeira [9] studied the creation of the national agricultural research system (snpa) and development institutions, highlighting the return on investment in agricultural research in brazil and its impacts on society. among the few studies about the agricultural research institutions in colombia, roldan [18] provides a historical but not complete panorama. the author starts by highlighting the botanical expedition of josé celestino mutis, emphasizing the various systems of education with a focus on agriculture and livestock. torres [19], presents a reflection relating to higher education with an agricultural focus in colombia and the process of creating the faculty of agricultural sciences in the state of nariño. recently, junguito et al. [11] recounted the main problems related to the productivity and competitiveness of colombian agriculture and have proposed mechanisms for strengthening research institutions, paying particular attention to the colombian agricultural research corporation (agrosavia), which has come up as the axis of the national system of agricultural science, technology, and innovation. however, there is a lack of complete studies concerning the evolution of the colombian agricultural research system, especially about what happened in the first two decades of the 21st century. in this regard, stads et al. [14] present an analysis of agricultural research institutions in latin america and the caribbean (including colombia and brazil), detailing the structure and financing of their research systems. however, this work does not highlight how the better performance of some countries (for example, brazil) can be used as a comparative parameter for other countries, such as colombia. given the above explained, the contribution of this article is the registration and analysis of the main historical facts and institutions that allowed the constitution of the agricultural research system in colombia up to the present time. this comparative analysis with the brazilian system will make it possible to formulate policy suggestions in colombia that can meet the demands of its agricultural sector and guarantee its future development. 3. a historical survey of agricultural research in colombia and brazil the spanish priest josé celestino mutis, also a naturalist and mathematician, dedicated himself, after his arrival 21 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 in colombia in 1760, to the recognition and study of the andean flora through several scientific excursions that led to important botanical discoveries. mutis carried out studies on zoology and minerals, observed astronomical phenomena, and described the geography of the country [20]. during his lifetime in colombia, mutis exchanged correspondence with european scholars, especially mr. carlos linnaeus, seeking better cooperation and exchange of knowledge between both scholars about the collection and nomenclature of unknown plants, as well as a scientific development. in 1805, francisco josé de caldas assembled a considerable herbarium of species from the southern and southwestern regions of colombia, recording his observations on the geography and distribution of plants in addition to his contributions to astronomy and physics. this herbarium was an essential component in the knowledge of colombian plant species not only because of its volume but also because of the descriptions of common uses, especially in agriculture, industry, and the conservation of natural resources in the regions where it was collected. a century later, in 1914, landmarks were set up for the creation of the school of tropical agriculture and veterinary medicine in medellín, and in 1916 its academic activities began. due to the country lacked of technicians, qualified teachers from the united states of america, puerto rico, cuba, france, and germany were hired. four years later, by ordinance, a complete course in agriculture and veterinary medicine was introduced. with the emergence of faculties of agronomy and zootechnics in different colombian states, there was a great diffusion of new production techniques for different species, which promoted the quality of colombian agricultural products at the time. table 1 displays the main historical milestones in the process of creating agricultural science research and education institutions in colombia. from the 1940s to the 1960s, several faculties were created to provide undergraduate courses in agricultural sciences. the 1970s and 1980s were characterized by the creation of several research centers focused on specific agricultural activities. since its creation in 1970, the faculty of agricultural sciences at the universidad nacional de colombia in palmira has pointed out among the most relevant public institutions that provide higher education in the country, with an emphasis on agricultural sciences. this institution has contributed to the generation and development of research in agronomy, biotechnology, agricultural innovation, environment, biodiversity, and zootechnics, not only for the valle del cauca region, which is an important colombian agricultural region, but also for the development of other andean and pacific colombian regions. later, with the creation of the colombian agricultural research corporation (agrosavia) in 1993, national public research began to be centered in this institution, which became responsible for generating scientific knowledge and technological solutions through research, innovation, technology transfer, and the training of researchers for the benefit of the colombian agricultural sector. together with the faculty of agricultural sciences of the universidad nacional de colombia in palmira and the international center for tropical agriculture (ciat), both placed in the same region, they form the hub of agricultural research in colombia. in addition, the institutional framework stimulates the strengthening of the former national science and technology system and its definition. law 607, issued in 2000, has modified the creation, functioning, and operation of the municipal agricultural technical assistance units (umata) and regulated direct rural technical assistance. those have turned viable, the participation of the territories in technological activities. in this path, the implementation of the strategic plans for science, technology, and innovation (pectia) formulated for most of the country’s states has been noble. brazil, from 1808, when the rio de janeiro’s botanical garden was inaugurated, to 1973, when embrapa was founded, has faced several swings between federal and state institutions in conducting activities linked to the generation of science (knowledge) and technology (processes and products) oriented to the development of brazilian agriculture. public agricultural research was greatly strengthened with the creation of the agronomic institute of campinas (iac), an agency of the state of são paulo since the beginning of the 20th century, but which was originally established in 1887 by the central government (at that time it was an imperial government) as the imperial agronomic station of campinas. in brazil, the state of são paulo headed the brazilian agricultural research from the beginning of the 20th century until the end of the 1970s. agronomic institute of campinas (iac), the biological institute (ib), and the zootechnical institute (iz), which concentrated on brazilian agricultural research during the first three decades of the 20th century were later, joined by four other state institutions (institute of agricultural economics (iea), institute of food technology (ital), and institute of fisheries and forestry (if)) [21]. the emergence of formal postgraduate degrees stricto sensu courses, in mid-1960s, allowed public universities (federal and state) to conduct an important share of agricultural research in brazil [3]. brazilian public model of agricultural research fells strongly on government funding, which includes the con22 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 struction of buildings, the installation of laboratories, and, above all, the training of competent researchers’ teams as well as professors at worldwide highest ranked universities [16]. embrapa, linked to the ministry of agriculture, livestock, and supply (mapa), has been, since its creation, responsible for generating, by itself or jointly with other agencies, new agricultural knowledge and technologies for the country. along with the creation of embrapa table 1. landmarks the evolution of agricultural research institutions in colombia. year landmark 1914 creation of the school of tropical agriculture and veterinary medicine in medellin, later named the national agricultural institute 1930 start of the sugarcane program at the experimental station of the colombian agricultural institute (ica) in palmira 1934 creation of the agricultural institute of valle del cauca (later as escuela superior de agricultura tropical del valle del cauca (esat)), the experimental agricultural farm of palmira, and the agricultural extension service of the state 1938 the national agricultural institute merged with the national university of colombia, was renamed the national faculty of agronomy, later named the faculty of agricultural sciences, and is currently the faculty of agricultural sciences in medellin creation of the national coffee research center (cenicafé) 1940 sugar mills-initiated research and experimentation activities and later, starting in 1955, established cooperation agreements with the ica sugarcane program 1943 the faculty of agronomy is created, linked to the universidad popular de manizales, currently the universidad de caldas 1944 esat became faculty of agronomy of valle del cauca 1945 the faculty of agronomy of valle del cauca was incorporated into the universidad industrial del valle del cauca and became the faculty of agronomy of the universidad industrial del valle del cauca 1946 the faculty of agronomy of the universidad industrial del valle del cauca joined the universidad nacional de colombia: facultad nacional de agronomía palmira creation of the faculty of agronomy of the universidad de nariño 1955 creation of the university of tolima as a faculty of agronomy 1963 creation of the faculty of agronomy of the national university of colombia in bogotá 1963 inauguration of the tropical research center that later became the marine and coastal research institute (invemar) 1967 establishment of the international center for tropical agriculture (ciat) in palmira 1970 the national faculty of agronomy in palmira becomes the faculty of agricultural sciences, palmira campus, of the national university of colombia 1974 creation of the national corporation for forestry research and development (cnrf) 1977 creation of the national sugarcane research center (cenicaña) 1985 creation of the banana research center (cenibanano) 1986 cimpa: research agreement for the improvement of panela, signed between the governments of colombia and the netherlands (dutch cooperation) 1990 establishment of the national oil palm research center (cenipalma) 1993 creation of the colombian agricultural research corporation (corpoica), transformed in may 2018 into agrosavia 1993 creation of the colombian center for aquaculture research (ceniacua) 2003 creation of cenired, composed of research and development centers: ceniacua, cenibanano, cenicafé, cenicaña, cenicel, ceniflores, cenipalma and conif 2004 creation of the colombian center for innovation in floriculture (ceniflores) 2012 creation of the cereal and vegetable research center—cenicel 2015 creation of science, technology, and agricultural innovation parks, law 1753 of 2015 source: prepared by the authors based on the historical references of each institution. 23 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 came the stimulus for the creation of other institutions at the state level in different regions. all together assemble the national agricultural research system (snpa), currently in force. the current structure of brazilian agricultural research is made up of public and private institutions and a higher education system with an outstanding degree of experience and performance, which has created a consolidated system in latin america and has provided important contributions to brazilian agriculture growth. 4. main entities that carry out agricultural research in colombia and brazil works such as those by dossa and segatto [17] draw attention to the four groups of organizations that carry agricultural research in brazil: embrapa (linked to the federal government), state public agencies (in the form of autarchies and/or state-owned companies), universities (especially the state-funded universities), and private companies. this item aims to evaluate the paths by which these organizations play in colombia and contrast them with those that exist in brazil. according to stads et al. [14], until 2013, 40% of the agricultural research carried out in colombia was done by state-funded agencies, 20% led by the universities, and 40% by private sector entities and/or mixed-law organizations (private and public). for comparative purposes, in brazil, in the same period, this distribution was 73%, 25%, and 2%, respectively. these data already illustrate, at least, that the aforementioned entities play different roles in the conduct of agricultural research in the two countries analyzed (colombia and brazil). 4.1 public institutions conducting agricultural research: agrosavia in colombia versus embrapa in brazil among the entities with government participation dedicated to agricultural research in colombia, agrosavia is the largest. it is a public, decentralized, non-profit institution (in a similar mold to embrapa). its main function is the generation of scientific knowledge and the development of agricultural technologies through research, adaptation, transfer of technology, and technical assistance. agrosavia has 21 research units, of which 13 are centers and 8 are headquarters located in different agricultural regions of the country (table 2). these units carry out research related to permanent crops (cacao and citrus, for example), transition and agroindustry crops, fruit trees, livestock, other crops, vegetables, and aromatic plants. table 2. comparison between agrosavia in colombia and embrapa in brazil by number and type of researchers, research centers, laboratories, portfolio, and social benefit for 2019. agrosavia embrapa year of foundation 1993 1973 indicators total number of researchers 378 2,252 researchers with master degrees 211 236 researchers with phd degrees 143 1,704 other researchersa 24 312 research centersb 21 50 total number of laboratories 49 600 portfolio 7 34 social balance sheet technologies analyzed 26 160 developed crops n.d. 220 corporate shares 4 n.d. social profit (usd $, currency in 2020) social profit ($usd) $120,449,575.77 $6,695,523,028.94 source: prepared by the authors based on agrosavia 2019 social report [22] and embrapa 2019 social report [23]. notes: a in the case of agrosavia, professionals linked to research are included; in the case of embrapa postdoctoral researchers are included. b in the case of agrosavia there are 13 research centers and 8 headquarters; in the case of embrapa, there are 43 decentralized units and 7 central units. 24 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 agrosavia also generates knowledge on the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity [20]. according to table 2, researchers with ph.d. and master’s degrees linked to agrosavia in 2019 represented 38% and 56%, respectively, of the total. in 2013, according to stads et al. [24], the participation of phds and masters in the same institution was 15% and 17%, respectively. despite the relative improvement in the linkage of high-level personnel during the last decade, previous years were characterized by lower paid salaries in the public sector combined with inefficient job promotion inside the public research system, which led many scientists to seek other better-paid positions, even abroad. while the increase in the number of researchers with doctoral and master’s degrees has been significant in colombia over the last decade, attracting highly qualified researchers in some priority areas remains a challenge for agricultural research in colombia. in 2019, the social return of the investments in agricultural science and technology in colombia, considering the case of agrosavia, was 2.15 for each monetary unit invested (1:2.15). that is, for every colombian peso (cop) invested, cop$ 2.15 was generated in benefits for the sector. the total social benefit of agrosavia in 2019 was usd$ 120,449,575.77, which comes from the 26 technologies analyzed, 4 corporate actions, and also includes plant and animal genetic material, crop management recommendations, different types of protocols for production, agricultural designs, agroindustry, and extension [22]. these technologies enabled the improvement of production systems in different regions of the country. as mentioned, public agricultural research in brazil is carried out at the federal and state levels. the embrapa is the main federal entity in brazil, with at least 50 research centers spread over all regions and a team comprised of 2252 researchers, 76% of whom have phds degrees (table 2). in brazil, the dominican republic, ecuador, panama, and venezuela, the government sector hired more than 70% of agricultural researchers in each country [14]. embrapa agricultural research spectrum is also quite broad, covering at least 34c knowledge fields. in addition to embrapa’s involvement, most brazilian states have their own c they include: irrigated agriculture, food, amazon biosystem, aquaculture, automation, precision and digital agriculture, advanced biotechnology applied to agribusiness, cocoa, coffee, meat, drought in the semi-arid region, energy, chemistry and biomass, fibers and biomass for industrial use, forestry, temperate fruit growing, tropical fruit growing, grains, vegetables, organizational innovation, social innovation in agriculture, biological inputs, livestock and forestry integration, intelligence systems, land management and monitoring, milk, rational pesticide management, climate change, nanotechnology, agricultural nutrition, pastures, genetic resources, animal health, plant health, environmental services, ecologically based production systems and brazilian soils. agricultural research entities focused on their state realities. in brazil, embrapa (together with state public institutions and public universities) generated knowledge and technologies for national agriculture, which enabled the reduction in production costs and helped the country increase the food supply in a sustainable manner, in addition to reducing the value of the basic food basket by more than 41.49% [23]. the social return for each brazilian monetary unit (reais) invested in embrapa in 2019 was r$ 12.29 (1:12.29), which came back to the brazilian society in the form of technologies, knowledge, and employment. embrapa generated in the country, in 2019, a social return of usd$ 6,695,523,028.94, calculated from the economic impacts of a sample of 160 technologies and about 220 cultivars developed by the research company and its partners [23], showing its high efficiency and consolidation in the exercise of agricultural research. 4.2 regional research and international cooperation colombia has some regional organizations that conduct agricultural research, and several of them hold cooperation with other organizations inside latin america and the caribbean (lac). among them is the inter-american institute for cooperation on agriculture (iica), which plays a useful role in coordinating, promoting, and facilitating sustainable agricultural development in the region. iica works with all the lac countries as well as with several centers of the consultative group on international agricultural research (cgiar) and other regional organizations. the cgiar consortium conducts most of the international research in the lac region. it participates in agricultural research and development in the region through three centers, including the international center for tropical agriculture (ciat) in colombia. at the same time, the agricultural research cooperative programs (procis) comprise a series of sub-regional mechanisms made up of a group of national agricultural research institutes. the procis focus on the development and strengthening of institutions, the coordination of research projects in several countries, and the promotion and transfer of technology. currently, there are four programs running: procisur (argentina, bolivia, brazil, chile, paraguay, and uruguay); procitropicos (brazil, bolivia, colombia, ecuador, peru, suriname, and venezuela); prociandino (bolivia, colombia, ecuador, peru, and venezuela); and procicaribe (caribbean) [25]. on the other hand, the tropical agricultural teaching and research center (catie) is an autonomous non-profit institution focused on agricultural and rural development and natural resource management. member states include colombia, where research on rural communities and so25 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 cial welfare is carried out. 4.3 the role of universities in agricultural research in colombia compared to brazil in the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s, several faculties of agronomy were created in colombia, spreading higher education about agricultural sciences over different regions (table 1). the 1960s also saw the creation of several agricultural research centers, formalizing the creation of the colombian agricultural institute (ica), formerly the department of agricultural research (dia) [19]. the agricultural institutes (ita) played a role in modernization and technology transfer, but this modernization was not the result of an analysis of the cultural, economic, and social conditions of the existing agricultural sector at that time but was driven by the need to reach international standards [26]. in the 1970s, under the influence of the new global trends, intermediate-level agricultural training programs were created. this step constitutes the main measure of the modernization of agricultural education in colombia, which promoted training at the technical level, the updating of higher education, and training in institutions. in line with the promotion of agricultural education, academic programs were created in colombia that are still running today (tables 1 and 3), including the public programs of the universidad nacional de colombia in palmira, medellin, and bogota, the universidad de caldas, the universidad del tolima, and the universidad de nariño. these public institutions stand out in the generation of scientific knowledge and technologies, contributing to the development of agriculture. according to data from the snies [28], in 2019, there were at least 73 higher education institutions, public or private, with programs related to agricultural sciences in colombia. in general, for this period, the number of public institutions is greater than that of private institutions; however, the latter has a greater number of courses dedicated to the teaching of agricultural sciences at the undergraduate level (table 3), which evidences that the colombian educational system, as far as agricultural sciences are concerned, is determined by the growing participation of the private sector. although the colombian educational system has both public and private representation, public institutions of higher education, as in other lac countries, should play a major role in agricultural research in colombia. however, according to triana [26], colombian public education faces greater challenges related to central government management, which has demonstrated an inability to adequately provide the right to education in terms of coverage, quality, and financing, which directly affects investments in research and the development of this sector. in terms of the number of students enrolled and graduates in agricultural sciences courses, in 2019, colombia reached only 2% of the total number of students enrolled in the country, while the percentage of graduates in this area was 1.6%. in brazil, these percentages were 3.2% and 2.5%, respectively (table 3). the punctual and contable 3. comparison of education systems in agricultural sciences between colombia and brazil, considering the year 2019. year 2019 colombia brazil private sector public sector private sector public sector institutions with programs in agricultural sciences a 33 40 377 144 undergraduate courses in agricultural sciences 51 44 610 630 students enrolled in the country by sector b 1,178,120 1,218,130 6,523,678 2,080,146 students enrolled by sector/percentage of total (%) 49 51 76 24 total students enrolled in the country 2,396,250 8,603,824 students enrolled/agricultural programs 49,292 141,438 130,591 total number of graduates in the country 507,338 1,250,076 graduates of agricultural science programs 8,275 16,664 15,246 source: prepared by the authors based on the national information system for higher education in colombia (snies) [27,28]. and the national institute of educational studies and research anísio teixeira (inep) [29]. notes: a in the case of colombia, this includes institutions with agronomy, veterinary, and related programs. in the case of brazil, this includes institutions with programs in agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and veterinary science. b in the case of colombia, this includes undergraduate (university), professional technical, technological, master’s, and specialization courses. in the case of brazil, it includes stricto sensu and lato sensu undergraduate courses by administrative category in different areas. 26 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 centrated geographic location of educational institutions has been highlighted as a central factor that does not make it possible to alleviate the technological and economic lags in a significant part of the colombian agricultural sector [30]. in addition, for more than 30 years, colombia has not created a new public university or college, much less one dedicated to agricultural sciences. therefore, there is a need for greater territorial coverage of the teaching offered in agricultural sciences, especially in regions with high productive potential where agriculture and livestock represent the main engines of economic development. the public share of higher education in agricultural sciences in brazil also plays a recognized and important role, with more than 144 units linked to public universities (federal and state) and federal institutes of education, science, and technology, offering courses in several different modalities of the agricultural sciences and training a lot of professionals to work in the different fields of agriculture and development. according to inep [29], in 2019, brazil had 521 undergraduate and graduate courses in agricultural sciences evaluated and recognized by the ministry of education and culture (mec). despite there being higher education courses linked to agricultural sciences throughout the country, there is a concentration of them mainly in the southeast, south, and northeast regions. 4.4 agricultural research conducted by the private sector according to bonelli and pessoa [5], a large share of agricultural technology is considered a public patrimony; therefore, it is mainly generated by government-owned research institutions, which benefits society, although it does not generate a direct financial return for the entity generating these new technologies. however, when it is carried out by profit-oriented institutions, there is a tendency to privatize and reduce the resources allocated to this activity. this justifies, in the case of brazil, the relatively small participation of the private sector in running agricultural research (tables 3 and 4). but this is not the case in colombia, where the private entities that carry out agricultural research do not necessarily have as a principle to maximize their profits but rather the profit of specific sectors. this makes private, profit-oriented agricultural research relatively important in colombia compared to other south american countries [14]. in many cases, agricultural technologies reach degrees of specialization and have private input supply, processing, harvesting, and post-harvest systems. some countries offer tax exemptions for private research, and many require their participation in publicly funded projects as a mechanism to promote the commercial viability of the results generated by the research. many private companies also make their research results available to universities or government agencies, or import technologies from abroad [31]. since the creation of cenicafé—which was created in the late 1930s—several agricultural production corporations in colombia have, over time, become aware of the need to invest in research to improve productivity and ensure the competitiveness of their activities. therefore, they have created their own research centers, called national research centers (ceni), such as ceniacua, cenibanano, cenicaña, cenicel, ceniflores, cenipalma, and conif. these centers are mainly financed by the private sector. the cenis have been an important tool in the economic development of the agricultural sectors they represent in the country [32]. these entities have sought to promote the development and modernization of the agricultural sector, especially those sectors with the greatest potential (in the case of large crops). since 2003, the cenis have congregated under an umbrella corporation called cenired, which facilitates the exchange of scientific and technological advances and resources among the main sectors: agroforestry, bananas, coffee, shrimp, sugarcane, flowers, cereals, legumes, and oil palm [32]. although this corporation groups the most important research centers in the country, each center has its own mission. however, they all have focused their efforts on the competitiveness and strengthening of their sector in order to contribute to its economy and development. 5. financial and human resources allocated to agricultural research in colombia and brazil according to data from stads et al. [14], financial amounts in agricultural research and development in colombia and brazil (excluding the private non-profit sector) were subject to considerable volatility during the 1980s and early 1990s. this was followed by a period of steady decline until the early 2000s. for brazil, after a period of strong growth, the total capacity to link researchers to agricultural technology development varied sharply, mainly during the years 19902004. the growth of this capacity in recent years resulted from greater participation in agricultural research by the higher education sector and the opening of new embrapa centers in different brazilian states, which increased the number of researchers hired. as a result, investment levels also increased from 2005 onward. from 2009 to 2013, the country invested us$ 2,704 million in research linked to the agricultural sector, which represents at least half of the total expenditure in the lac region in this category [14,33]. therefore, brazil figures as the most important country in 27 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 lac in terms of spending on agricultural research. according to this same study, colombia topped the list of the top five countries in investment in agricultural research from 2009 to 2013, with an investment of close to us$ 253 million. table 4 shows the distribution of spending on agricultural research in colombia and brazil from 2009 to 2013, highlighting items such as net spending, growth in spending, researchers assigned, and the participation of different sectors in research in 2019. the data in table 4 show that agricultural research spending in colombia was at least 10 times lower than in brazil. moreover, colombia’s agricultural gdp (in 2019) was 5 times lower than brazil’s (according to world bank data), proportionally. in 2013, public investment in agricultural research in colombia corresponded to 0.79% of its agricultural gdp, while in brazil this percentage was 1.82%. the most developed countries invest about 4% of their agricultural gdp in agricultural research, while the least developed countries invest around 1%. therefore, colombia’s total investment in agricultural research is relatively lower than that of brazil. colombia is less competitive than brazil in terms of both the number of researchers involved and the percentage of phds among researchers conducting research in the agricultural sector. only 23% of researchers related to agriculture and livestock had a ph.d. degree in colombia, compared to 73% in the brazilian case, considering the table 4. financial and human resources linked to agricultural research activities in colombia and brazil from 2009 to 2013, participation of sectors in research, and operating income in 2019. item colombia brazil expense research expenses in millions of dollars (usd $) a 253 2,704 growth of the sector b 33.3% 7.8% percentage of agricultural gdp c 0.79% 1.82% researchers number of full-time equivalent researchers d 1,102 5,869 growth of the sector e 2.95 11.5% percentage of researchers with a doctorate degree f 23% 73% financing sources public participation (agrosavia and embrapa) 90% 97% donations and development banks 1% 1% sales of goods and services 9% 2% public participation in agricultural research public participation (agrosavia and embrapa) 29% 42% non-profit and for-profit organizations 12% 1% operating income 2019 (usd $) net operating income (agrosavia and embrapa) $55,859,765.38 $545,006,368.92 source: prepared by the authors based on stads et al. [14] and asti [25]. notes: a total agricultural research spending includes salaries, operating and program costs, and capital investments for all higher education agencies, nonprofit institutions, and government entities conducting agricultural research activities (excluding the private sector) in the country in the period 2009 through 2013. b expenditure growth includes increases in salary costs, program costs, and operating and capital investments in all public, non-profit, and higher education entities (excluding the private sector) that carry out agricultural research activities in the country. c percentage of investment in agricultural research (total research expenditure excluding the private for-profit sector as a percentage of agricultural gdp). d the total number of agricultural researchers in the public sector includes all researchers working in government, non-profit organizations, and higher education (excluding the private sector). the data are expressed in full-time equivalents (fte). e the increase in the total number of agricultural researchers in the public sector includes all researchers working in government, organizations, nonprofit organizations, and higher education (excluding the private sector). the data are expressed as a percentage of full-time employees (fte). f this indicator reflects the number of agricultural researchers with a ph.d. as a percentage of the total number of agricultural researchers in the public sector (with ph.d., msc., and undergraduate degrees). 28 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 years from 2009 to 2013. in general, the number of scientists with a ph.d. degree is considered fundamental for the conception and implementation of high-quality research programs, to establish efficient communication with policymakers, donors, and other actors, both locally and in regional and international forums, as well as to increase the opportunities for institutions to obtain more resources for their activities [25]. financial resources for agricultural research in colombia and brazil come from various sources, including the national government, international donors, development banks, producer organizations, and other private sector agents. in addition to income generated by the research institutions themselves through the sale of goods and/or services. regarding the budget, until 2013, agrosavia was financed by the ministry of agriculture through technical cooperation and contracts, but since the enactment of law 1731 of 2014, there is a national budget line within the budget approved by congress, and resources are channeled to agrosavia through the ministry of agriculture. for 2019, this budget was usd$ 55,859,765.38 (table 4). despite the budget had increased in recent years, total amount disbursed with agricultural research in colombia is relatively lower when it is compared to other countries located in the same region [24]. in most agrosavia centers, more funding could contribute to salary increases and related operating expenses. therefore, capital investment is vital to meet the demands for infrastructure, technology acquisition, and transfer. the federal government’s financial support for agricultural research in brazil, despite oscillating since the 1980s [34], has enabled embrapa’s important performance in south america, its partnerships, and international cooperation. for 2019, embrapa’s operating budget was usd$ 545,006,368.92 (table 4). the participation of the public sector in the financing of agricultural research institutions in brazil is much more significant than in colombia. however, according to stads et al. [24], with the economic slowdown and crisis, there is uncertainty about possible cuts in future budgets that could restrict the activities of agricultural research agencies in brazil. in colombia, agrosavia’s main source of funding is the central government. although this participation is high (percentage), there is a tendency to increase the sale of products and services to access new resources, which may lead this institution to become less dependent on the government in the future. this same trend can be observed in the participation of other colombian institutions related to agricultural research activities. however, it is necessary to observe the trend in this aspect over time up to the present day. since agricultural research is a typical public good with benefits for the whole society, the state should provide a very high share of the funds for this activity. leaving the function of financing research to private agents and sectoral funds will represent a future threat to the system since the volume and type of research would be below what is socially necessary, even when financed with parafiscal contributions, as has been the case in colombia [11]. one strategy to promote agricultural development in specific regions by providing them with scientific and technological capacity to meet their own demands is to create regional agricultural research and innovation systems, such as those existing in brazil. in colombia, the model is configured to meet the demands of particular sectors, as in the case of the cenis, and not regional demands. due to the importance that has been attributed to specific sectors of primary production, there is a trend in the distribution and execution of research in each country. in colombia, 59% of agricultural research is devoted to major crops (including coffee, sugar cane, and fruit production, for example), 9% to livestock (including meat and milk production), 17% to the management and preservation of natural resources, 0.5% to forestry, 1% to fisheries, and 13.5% to other agricultural activities. for brazil, major crops account for at least 72% of agricultural research (highlighting coffee, citrus, soybean, corn, sugarcane, cotton, non-citrus fruits, and other oilseed species); livestock 9% (milk and meat); natural resource management and preservation 3%; forestry 1%; fisheries 2%; and other agricultural activities 13% [14,24]. this distribution in the focus of agricultural research is linked to the sectors in which each country has achieved greater competitiveness, not only in the domestic market but also in its exports and, consequently, in the generation of foreign exchange. another challenge has to do with the level of public funding needed to ensure effective strategic research programs that generate greater agricultural productivity. the trend towards the restriction of public spending on agricultural research has led research entities to have limited options for obtaining resources, and the allocation of these resources is increasingly scarce [30,31], especially in countries such as colombia, where state policies have not considered this component a priority for national development. according to stads et al. [14], it is essential that governments provide the necessary political environment to foster cooperation among agricultural research entities in their countries in order to maximize synergies between universities and government entities and efficiencies in the use of available resources. in the colombian case, it is important to consider exogenous factors that from the 29 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 national context have limited investment in research, such as the allocation of the national budget to other portfolios with the idea of responding to the internal armed conflict by the governments in power, the variation of the exchange rate that discouraged exports, the discouragement of the sector in the face of the economic opening since the end of the 1990s, and the high cost of the fight against drugs due to the increase in crops destined for illicit uses. 6. final remarks agriculture is a dynamic activity in which several factors and components converge to make its development possible. apart from the inputs of credit, labor, and market to be done, it is also necessary to generate new knowledge and technology to allow it to be developed. both knowledge and technology are generated thanks to the research programs carried out by institutions, and they have a huge impact on the country’s overall agricultural competitiveness. as shown throughout the paper, the research system for the generation of agricultural science and technology in brazil is predominantly public, and the federal entity (embrapa), which includes regional features, forms a network together with institutions of higher education (federal and state universities) and state research institutions. this model of a public-funded agricultural research network in brazil (despite its irregular allocation of resources) has generated important results, especially because the agricultural technology that they generate is difficult to privately register and is freely spread, which has had a great impact on brazilian agricultural productivity. colombian agriculture has faced a decrease in productivity that has led to a loss of competitiveness in this sector. federal-funded agrosavia’s research has generated a lower return to colombia than similar embrapa’s research has turned back to brazil. however, greater investments in financial resources and human capital are considered necessary for the development of more efficient agricultural research programs in colombia. this stands out as the greatest challenge to be overcome, especially in recent years. complementing this, there is a need to structure a research system that can meet regional demands more efficiently in all agricultural sectors in colombia. this will require an even stronger link with agricultural research on the part of higher education institutions, especially public institutions that, in turn, demand greater investment, coverage, and capacity to train highly competent professionals in different fields that compound the agriculture sector. author contributions heiber andres trujillo: study conception and design, data collection, analysis and interpretation, elaboration of the text (different versions), critical revision of the article with important contributions to its intellectual content, approval of the final version to be submitted. carlos josé caetano bacha: study conception and design, critical revision of the article with important contributions to its intellectual content, approval of the final version to be submitted. acknowledgement acknowledgement to the ‘doctorado exterior—885’ program of the ‘ministerio de ciencia tecnología e innovación (minciencias) colombia’ for funding since 2021. to the ‘proex’ program of ‘coordenação de aperfeiçoamento de pessoal de nível superior (capes) brazil’ for the scholarship. data availability the data are available upon request from the corresponding author. conflict of interest all authors disclosed no any conflict of interest. references [1] echeverría, r.g., 1998. agricultural research policy issues in latin america: an overview. world development. 26(6), 1103-1111. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0305-750x(98)00036-9 [2] johnston, b.f., mellor, j.w., 1962. the role of agriculture in economic development. el trimestre económico. 29(2), 279-307. 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this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). 1. introduction agriculture can contribute to ending severe impoverishment, encourage shared wealth, and feed a projected 9.7 billion people by 2050 [1]. progress in the agriculture sector is between two to four times more useful in growing incomes among the most impoverished relative to other sectors [1]. further, agriculture is also essential to economic progress: representing 4% of global gross domestic product doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.861 received: 19 may 2023; received in revised form: 15 june 2023; accepted: 27 june 2023; published: 5 july 2023 citation: badu-prah, c., agyeiwaa-afrane, a., gidiglo, f.k., et al., 2023. trade, foreign direct investment and agriculture in developing countries. research on world agricultural economy. 4(3), 861. http://dx.doi. org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.861 *corresponding author: justice gameli djokoto, department of agribusiness management, central university, ghana, p. o. box ds 3210, dansoman, accra, ghana; email: dgameli2002@gmail.com research article trade, foreign direct investment and agriculture in developing countries charlotte badu-prah akua agyeiwaa-afrane ferguson k. gidiglo francis y. srofenyoh kofi aaron a-o. agyei-henaku justice gameli djokoto* department of agribusiness management, central university, ghana, p. o. box ds 3210, dansoman, accra, ghana abstract: agriculture continues to make significant contributions to developing countries in the presence of globalisation. thus, international trade and foreign capital flows are important to developing countries. the authors used data on 115 developing countries from 1995 to 2020 to investigate the effect of inward and outward foreign direct investment (fdi) on trade in the agricultural sector of developing countries. inward fdi enhanced exports, imports, and trade openness. however, outward fdi did not affect exports, imports, and trade openness. to escalate international trade in agricultural products, developing countries must continue to promote the inflow of fdi into agriculture (aifdi). this requires paying attention to appropriate management of the macroeconomy, keeping down the inflation rate, optimising the currency exchange rate, and keeping interest rates down to boost investment among others. whilst these would enhance aifdi that would promote trade, these would directly promote trade. as developing countries have often suffered foreign exchange pressures, they must enhance foreign exchange receipts through increased exports. increasing human capital can increase exports. unlike existing studies, the authors used more current data covering many developing countries and accounted for endogeneity. keywords: agricultural exports; agricultural imports; agricultural trade openness; capital flow; foreign capital http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.861 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.861 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.861 mailto:dgameli2002@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6144-2142 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6348-9737 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6669-6181 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1922-7582 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2159-2944 2 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 (gdp) and exceeding 25% of gdp in some developing countries. as global investment needs are in the range of $5 trillion to $7 trillion per year, the estimates for investment needs in developing countries are between $3.3 trillion and $4.5 trillion per year [2,3]. the developing countries would require foreign investments to meet this need. foreign direct investment (fdi) is an investment made by an occupant firm in one economy to find a long-term interest in a firm that is a denizen in another economy. the long-term interest infers the presence of a lasting relationship between the direct investor and the direct investment firm and a significant degree of influence on the leadership of the firm. the basis of the long-term relationship is the control of 10% or more of the firm by a direct investor [4-8]. under the directional principle, direct investment is shown as either direct investment abroad (outward, ofdi) or direct investment in the reporting economy (inward, ifdi) [4,8]. developing countries have pursued varied policies to attract fdi into their respective agricultural sector to stimulate local investment and supply of funds, increase export capacity, increase employment, and enhance technology transfer [2,9-13]. regarding exports, aihu and chedjou [14], harding and javorcik [15] and kang [16] did find that ifdi promotes exports for the total economy and the manufacturing sector. for imports, whilst aihu and chedjou [14] reported a positive effect of ifdi, djokoto [17] and latif and younis [18] found a neutral effect. the effects of ifdi on trade openness are most inconsistent; aihu and chedjou [14], karaca, güney, and hopoğlu [19] and yaoxing [20] found a positive effect, umar, chaudhry, faheem, and farooq [21] found a negative effect for lower-income and lower-middle-income countries, but the neutral effect for upper middle-income countries. although developing countries are generally net recipients of capital flows [22-27], sun and zhang [28] found trade openness enhances the effect of ofdi from china. considering these inconsistencies, what is the effect of fdi on trade in the agriculture sector in developing countries? existing studies on fdi and trade nexus have focused on the total economy [19,23]. harding and javorcik [15] and kang [16] addressed manufacturing, only djokoto [17] and latif and younis [18] studied agriculture. whilst djokoto [17] studied a single country, latif and younis [18] studied four countries with data from 1995 to 2017. some limitations emerge especially, regarding agricultural studies. first, the dependent variable in the agriculture studies has been exports and imports and not trade openness, a more inclusive measure of trade. second, the number of developing countries covered is limited, thus, the results of the studies cannot be generalised for developing countries. third, although, the data used were current at the time, these are not the most current now. fourth, the studies did not account for endogeneity. this could have led to the correlation of the error term with some of the explanatory variables thereby violating an assumption of undergirding ordinary least squares. this could cause an inaccurate effect of fdi on trade. finally, the analyses ignored the role of ofdi, the counterpart of ifdi, which also affects trade. this could result in omitted variable bias. we make up for these limitations as follows. firstly, in addition to exports and imports, we assessed the effect of fdi on trade openness. secondly, we covered 115 developing countries in africa, latin america and the caribbean, asia, and the pacific. thirdly, we used data from 1995 to 2020. in the fourth place, we took account of endogeneity in macroeconomic variables and finally, included ofdi in our model. inward foreign direct investment enhanced exports, imports, and trade openness. to escalate international trade in agricultural products, developing countries must continue to promote the inflow of fdi into agriculture (aifdi). this requires paying attention to appropriate management of the macro economy; keeping down the inflation rate, optimising the currency exchange rate, and keeping interest rates down to boost investment among others. whilst these would enhance aifdi that would promote trade, these would directly promote trade. as developing countries have often suffered foreign exchange pressures, they must enhance foreign exchange receipts through increased exports. increasing human capital can increase exports. in what follows, we present the theories of trade and cross-border capital flows. we examined the pertinent literature on developing countries to assess the scope of knowledge on the title of the study, assess the differences and similarities among them and provide the information needed for the discussion section. in section 3, the modelling is presented with a description of the data and estimation procedures. the results of the estimation are reported, and these are explained considering the relevant literature in section 4. in the final section, we conclude the study with some policy recommendations. 2. literature review 2.1 theoretical review the workhorse theory about trade and capital flows is the hecksher-ohlin framework [29,30]. in this framework, trade and capital flows are perfect substitutes under a twocountry, two-factor model and two-commodity. this condition is sufficient to ensure factor price equilibrium and this equilibrium is adequate to guarantee commodity price equilibrium. mundell [26] states, ‘….the ability to engage in commodity trade can eliminate the need for capital to 3 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 flow from the capital-abundant countries to the capitalscarce countries since the rate of return differences can be eliminated through trade alone’. in acknowledging the factor substitutability of fdi and trade, mundell [31] noted that increasing trade restrictions enhances factor movements, and an increasing restriction to factors enhances trade. notwithstanding the significant role of the hecksher-ohlin-mundell framework in explaining trade and capital flows, it is constrained in its ability to provide a complete analysis of trade and capital flows and their collaboration under a rich set of circumstances. specifically, capital mobility in the static two-country, two-factor, twocommodity framework is restricted to the apportionment of capital across countries, for a fixed level of world capital stock [26]. despite the hecksher-ohlin-mundell position of substitutability between trade and capital flows, antras and caballero [32] have however, shown the complementarity between trade and capital flows when relative advantages across countries are not decided only by factor endowments, but also by financial conglomeration. 2.2 empirical review these theories have informed the developing country literature on the effects of fdi on trade that addressed agriculture [17,18], manufacturing [15,16], and the total economy [14,19-21,28,33]. the geographies included china [28], cote d’ivoire [20], ghana [17], jordan, morocco, egypt, and thailand [18], brics-t [19], africa [14], and developing countries [15,21]. djokoto [17], karaca et al. [19] and yaoxing [20] employed granger causality, sun and zhang [28], and umar et al. [28] employed fixed effects, random effects, and general method of moments. harding and javorcik [15] applied the difference-in-difference method. inward fdi was positively related to trade openness [14,19,20]. however, umar et al. [21] found a negative relationship for lower income (lic) and lower-middle-income countries (lmic) but a neutral effect for upper-middle-income countries (umic). harding and javorcik [15] reported a positive effect of fdi presence on exports of developing countries. the effect was stronger for developing countries than for developed countries. “a weaker and quantitatively smaller effect for developed countries is consistent with the view that foreign presence is closing a technology gap. for a developed economy, there is less of a technology gap to close, and the foreign presence has a minor effect on the unit values of exports.” [15]. aihu and chedjou [14] reported positive effects of inward fdi on exports and imports in the total economies of africa. kang [16] found a positive effect of fdi on korean manufactured exports to developing but a negative effect on manufactured exports to developed countries. in the only study that investigated the role of outward fdi (ofdi) on trade, sun and zhang [28] found a positive effect of china’s ofdi on belt and road countries on trade in china. the effect of population growth on trade openness was positive [19,34,28] but osei et al. [33] found a neutral effect for lic and lmic. the effects of gdp growth on trade openness have been mixed. a positive effect [19,15,28,21]. osei et al. [33] reported a positive effect for lower-income countries and a negative effect for lower-middle-income countries. mbogela [34] matched the negative effect with evidence on african countries. aihu and chedjou [14] however, reported a neural effect on exports, imports, and trade openness. as in the case of gdp growth, the effect of population growth is also mixed. whilst osei et al. [33] did not find a significant effect of population growth on trade openness, harding and javorcik [15] found a negative effect on exports whilst karaca et al. [19], mbogela [34] and sun and zhang [28] found a positive effect of population growth on trade openness. mbogela [34] measured trade policy as the freedom to trade internationally and found that the variable did not significantly influence trade openness in africa. however, umar et al. [21] reported a positive effect on trade openness. whilst the effect of inflation and domestic investment had a positive effect on trade openness, the effect of human capital was mixed; negative for lower-income countries [21], and neutral for lower-middle-income countries [21]. djokoto [17] and latif and younis [18] are specific agricultural papers on fdi-trade nexus. in the only agricultural fdi-trade nexus paper, djokoto [17] investigated the effect of fdi inflow on imports and exports in ghana. using granger’s instantaneous causality approach with data from 1961 to 2008, fdi substituted imports whilst fdi did not have a discernible effect on exports in the shortrun. in the long run, imports and fdi complemented each other. djokoto [17] explained that mnes would need to import some capital items and raw from abroad including from parent companies. to some extent, employees of foreign firms would generally prefer goods from their home country that could drive up imports of finished goods. latif and younis [18] studied jordan, morocco, egypt, and thailand collectively using data from 1995 to 2017. whilst fdi promoted net exports, exports and imports were not significantly affected by fdi. it would be observed that the studies that investigated the effect of fdi on trade used fdi inflow, not fdi outflow except sun and zhang [28]. although the two studies focused on agriculture, attention was given to exports and imports and not trade openness. moreover, the analysis did not consider other variables that explain exports and 4 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 imports. we fill these gaps by investigating the effect of inward and outward fdi on exports, imports, and trade openness in agriculture in developing countries. 3. data and methods 3.1 models and data congruent to the literature on fdi and trade [14,33-35], we specify equations (1)-(3). 6 by investigating the effect of inward and outward fdi on exports, imports, and trade openness in agriculture in developing countries. 3. data and methods 3.1 models and data congruent to the literature on fdi and trade [14,33-35], we specify equations (1)-(3).  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 +  (1)  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 +  (2)  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 +  (3) there are i developing countries and t years. the α, β and γ are parameters to be estimated. the ω, φ and τ are idiosyncratic error terms. agricultural export (aex) is the ratio of agricultural exports to agricultural value added. agricultural import (aim) is the ratio of agricultural imports to agricultural value added. the sum of aex and aim is agricultural trade openness (ato). aex, aim, and ato constitute measures of trade. anderson [36], de azevedo et al. [37], djokoto [2,10,38,39], kastratović [40], narteh-yoe, djokoto and pomeyie [41] and osei, et al. [33] measured trade similarly. the inflow of fdi into agriculture in developing countries is aifdi, measured as the ratio of fdi to agricultural value added. we measured aofdi = 1 for observation of the outflow of fdi into agriculture and 0 otherwise. this is outward fdi out of agriculture in developing countries. the use of the dummy variable was necessitated by limited non-zero values reported for agricultural ofdi at the source. ainv is agricultural domestic investment measured as the ratio of agricultural gross fixed capital formation to agricultural value added [2,10,39,42]. we defined agdpg as the annual growth rate of agricultural value at 2015 prices. growth of the agricultural sector can absorb agricultural imports through the consumption of agricultural inputs and agricultural products as raw and intermediate goods for processing. agricultural exports would be acquired from domestic agricultural production resulting from increased agdpg. the rest of the variables are not specific to the agricultural sector. the official exchange rate exrate is measured as the annual average of the number of the developing country’s currency per us$ 1. a high exrate would raise the prices of agricultural imports and could dampen agricultural imports whilst promoting agricultural exports. agricultural produce exporters would expect more revenue denominated in the domestic currency. umar et al. [21] reported the effect of the exchange rate on agricultural trade. we define fttrade (1) 6 by investigating the effect of inward and outward fdi on exports, imports, and trade openness in agriculture in developing countries. 3. data and methods 3.1 models and data congruent to the literature on fdi and trade [14,33-35], we specify equations (1)-(3).  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 +  (1)  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 +  (2)  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 +  (3) there are i developing countries and t years. the α, β and γ are parameters to be estimated. the ω, φ and τ are idiosyncratic error terms. agricultural export (aex) is the ratio of agricultural exports to agricultural value added. agricultural import (aim) is the ratio of agricultural imports to agricultural value added. the sum of aex and aim is agricultural trade openness (ato). aex, aim, and ato constitute measures of trade. anderson [36], de azevedo et al. [37], djokoto [2,10,38,39], kastratović [40], narteh-yoe, djokoto and pomeyie [41] and osei, et al. [33] measured trade similarly. the inflow of fdi into agriculture in developing countries is aifdi, measured as the ratio of fdi to agricultural value added. we measured aofdi = 1 for observation of the outflow of fdi into agriculture and 0 otherwise. this is outward fdi out of agriculture in developing countries. the use of the dummy variable was necessitated by limited non-zero values reported for agricultural ofdi at the source. ainv is agricultural domestic investment measured as the ratio of agricultural gross fixed capital formation to agricultural value added [2,10,39,42]. we defined agdpg as the annual growth rate of agricultural value at 2015 prices. growth of the agricultural sector can absorb agricultural imports through the consumption of agricultural inputs and agricultural products as raw and intermediate goods for processing. agricultural exports would be acquired from domestic agricultural production resulting from increased agdpg. the rest of the variables are not specific to the agricultural sector. the official exchange rate exrate is measured as the annual average of the number of the developing country’s currency per us$ 1. a high exrate would raise the prices of agricultural imports and could dampen agricultural imports whilst promoting agricultural exports. agricultural produce exporters would expect more revenue denominated in the domestic currency. umar et al. [21] reported the effect of the exchange rate on agricultural trade. we define fttrade (2) 6 by investigating the effect of inward and outward fdi on exports, imports, and trade openness in agriculture in developing countries. 3. data and methods 3.1 models and data congruent to the literature on fdi and trade [14,33-35], we specify equations (1)-(3).  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 +  (1)  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 +  (2)  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 +  (3) there are i developing countries and t years. the α, β and γ are parameters to be estimated. the ω, φ and τ are idiosyncratic error terms. agricultural export (aex) is the ratio of agricultural exports to agricultural value added. agricultural import (aim) is the ratio of agricultural imports to agricultural value added. the sum of aex and aim is agricultural trade openness (ato). aex, aim, and ato constitute measures of trade. anderson [36], de azevedo et al. [37], djokoto [2,10,38,39], kastratović [40], narteh-yoe, djokoto and pomeyie [41] and osei, et al. [33] measured trade similarly. the inflow of fdi into agriculture in developing countries is aifdi, measured as the ratio of fdi to agricultural value added. we measured aofdi = 1 for observation of the outflow of fdi into agriculture and 0 otherwise. this is outward fdi out of agriculture in developing countries. the use of the dummy variable was necessitated by limited non-zero values reported for agricultural ofdi at the source. ainv is agricultural domestic investment measured as the ratio of agricultural gross fixed capital formation to agricultural value added [2,10,39,42]. we defined agdpg as the annual growth rate of agricultural value at 2015 prices. growth of the agricultural sector can absorb agricultural imports through the consumption of agricultural inputs and agricultural products as raw and intermediate goods for processing. agricultural exports would be acquired from domestic agricultural production resulting from increased agdpg. the rest of the variables are not specific to the agricultural sector. the official exchange rate exrate is measured as the annual average of the number of the developing country’s currency per us$ 1. a high exrate would raise the prices of agricultural imports and could dampen agricultural imports whilst promoting agricultural exports. agricultural produce exporters would expect more revenue denominated in the domestic currency. umar et al. [21] reported the effect of the exchange rate on agricultural trade. we define fttrade (3) there are i developing countries and t years. the α, β and γ are parameters to be estimated. the ω, φ and τ are idiosyncratic error terms. agricultural export (aex) is the ratio of agricultural exports to agricultural value added. agricultural import (aim) is the ratio of agricultural imports to agricultural value added. the sum of aex and aim is agricultural trade openness (ato). aex, aim, and ato constitute measures of trade. anderson [36], de azevedo et al. [37], djokoto [2,10,38,39], kastratović [40], narteh-yoe, djokoto and pomeyie [41] and osei, et al. [33] measured trade similarly. the inflow of fdi into agriculture in developing countries is aifdi, measured as the ratio of fdi to agricultural value added. we measured aofdi = 1 for observation of the outflow of fdi into agriculture and 0 otherwise. this is outward fdi out of agriculture in developing countries. the use of the dummy variable was necessitated by limited non-zero values reported for agricultural ofdi at the source. ainv is agricultural domestic investment measured as the ratio of agricultural gross fixed capital formation to agricultural value added [2,10,39,42]. we defined agdpg as the annual growth rate of agricultural value at 2015 prices. growth of the agricultural sector can absorb agricultural imports through the consumption of agricultural inputs and agricultural products as raw and intermediate goods for processing. agricultural exports would be acquired from domestic agricultural production resulting from increased agdpg. the rest of the variables are not specific to the agricultural sector. the official exchange rate exrate is measured as the annual average of the number of the developing country’s currency per us$ 1. a high exrate would raise the prices of agricultural imports and could dampen agricultural imports whilst promoting agricultural exports. agricultural produce exporters would expect more revenue denominated in the domestic currency. umar et al. [21] reported the effect of the exchange rate on agricultural trade. we define fttrade as the freedom to trade internationally [34]. fttrade is a composite measure of the absence of tariff and non-tariff barriers that affect imports and exports of goods and services. this is composed of the trade-weighted average tariff rate and non-tariff barriers. the weighted average tariff uses weights for each tariff based on the share of imports for each good. a low fttrade means a low prospect to trade than a high fttrade. whilst the former would discourage trade [34] the latter would enhance international trade (trade). hc is human capital, defined as secondary school enrolment percent of gross enrolment. high hc contributes to high employment in the production of goods and services that can be exported. hc can be combined with imported goods to produce for domestic and the export market. hc has a relationship with trade [21,43,44]. infla, inflation, is measured as the annual growth rate of the consumer price index. high infla reduces the value of the developing country’s currency. this could discourage imports as well as exports. however, osei et al. [33] found that infla does not depress trade. popg is the annual growth rate of the population of males and females. a high population increases the market for the consumption of imports as well as increased labour for production for exports. therefore, popg could influence trade [19,34]. data for the study comprised 115 developing countries (appendix) from 1995 to 2020. aside from the availability of data, the period also covers increased foreign direct investment activity in developing countries. data on aem, aim, agdpg, and ainv were obtained from faostat [45] whilst world development indicators of the world bank [46] was the source of exrate, hc, infla and popg, the heritage foundation [47] is the source for fttrade. 3.2 estimation procedure the panel structure of the data (large cross-section than time series) necessitated the application of the estimation of fixed and random effects estimators. however, as macroeconomic variables could be plagued with endogeneity, we employed the general method of moments (gmm) to take care of the possible endogeneity. we used xtdpdgmm [50] to reduce the number of instruments.a a we employed the sargan test [51,52], to explore the overidentifying restrictions and the arellano and bond [48] test to test for the presence of second-order serial correlation. 5 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 4. results and discussion 4.1 summary of the data the standard deviation of ato is about two times that of aim and close to three times that of aex (table 1). this suggests a larger spread of ato than aex and aim. the mean of aifdi is lower than its standard deviation suggesting over-dispersion of aifdi. as aofdi was defined as a dummy variable, the mean represents the percentage of observations with aofdi as 1. specifically, only 8% of the 2,462 observations recorded aofdi. this small proportion is in line with the fact that outward fdi tended to originate more from developed countries than from developing countries and is underscored in the literature [22-27]. 4.2 results we estimated equations (1)-(3) and performed robustness checks on the estimates of the key coefficients (table 2). the sign of the coefficients of aifdi are positive and the magnitudes are similar across models 1-9. similarly, the coefficients of aofdi are similar in magnitude across models 1-9. these suggest the estimates of aifdi and aofdi are robust to the control variables. in the case of agricultural imports (aim) as the dependent variable, the coefficients of aifdi and aofdi are similar across models 10-18 suggesting the robustness of the estimates of aifdi and aofdi (table 3). for agricultural trade openness, ato, as the dependent variable, the coefficients of aifdi and aofdi are also similar across models 19-27 suggesting the robustness of the key estimates (table 4). it would be observed that the estimates of aifdi in table 4 are about two times the magnitude of those in table 2 and more than those in table 3. also, across tables 2-4, the coefficients of the lag of the dependent variable, are positive, statistically significant, and similar in magnitude. whilst the statistical significance confirms that the endogeneity has been cared for, the similarity across models suggests the robustness of the estimates to control variables. the complete models in tables 2-4 are assembled in table 5. the probability of the second-order serial correlations tests is invalidated signifying no second-order correlation in the errors of models. the probability of the sargan-hansen test also shows values above 10%. this implies that the over-identifying restrictions imposed in the estimation are valid. following these impressive model properties, the panel model estimated is appropriate. whilst the estimates of the coefficients in table 5 are similar, across the models, the estimates in model 27 appear to be larger than those in models 9 and 18. this is not surprising as the dependent variable in model 27 (ato) is the sum of the dependent variables in models 9 and 18 (aex and aim). the increased value of ato resulted in higher coefficients than those in models 9 and 27. 4.3 discussion of the effects of foreign direct investment on trade the coefficient of aifdi of 0.6882 suggests a us$ 1 rise in agricultural inward fdi will raise exports by 69 cents (table 5). although this is inelastic, nevertheless, it shows that fdi in the agricultural sector of developing countries enhances trade. this can be attributable to multinational enterprises (mnes) engaging in exports of their products to the parent company and other affiliates as well as non-affiliate customers outside the country. as many developing countries produce primary agricultural products, the exports to parent firms and other affiliates fit into the vertical integration of the mnes. the export-enhancing role of aifdi, ceteris paribus should improve the foreign exchange receipts of developing countries. whilst the finding is contrary to the hecksher-ohlin-mundell position of substitutability between trade and capital flows, it is consistent with the antras and caballero [32] position of complementarity of trade and capital flows. in the empirical space, our results conform to that of the manufacturing sector in developing countries [16] and the total economies of africa [14]. but djokoto [17] and latif and younis [18] reported a neutral effect of aifdi on trade in ghanaian agriculture and the agriculture of jordan, morocco, egypt, and thailand, respectively. a us$ 1 increase in aifdi will induce an 87 cents increase in imports. the investment codes of developing countries contain concessions on imports of raw materials table 1. summary statistics. variable observation mean standard deviation minimum maximum aex 2,462 0.8113 5.2582 0 96.7905 aim 2,462 1.4886 7.3732 0.0208 118.4649 ato 2,462 2.2999 12.5249 0.0594 214.5246 aifdi 2,462 0.0052 0.0327 –0.1076 0.8139 aofdi 2,462 0.0804 0.2720 0 1 ainv 2,462 0.1010 0.0642 0.0089 0.4896 agdpg 2,462 0.0299 0.0882 –0.7022 1.2342 exrate 2,454 1.26e+07 2.22e+08 0.0028 5.60e+09 fttrade 2,462 64.6789 15.0331 0 94.8000 hc 2,347 63.4170 29.9712 5.2834 212.5903 infla 2,460 11.2421 102.4682 –16.1173 4145.106 popg 2,462 1.9142 1.3267 –16.8806 17.3991 6 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 table 2. estimations and robustness checks for the effect of foreign direct investment on exports. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) variables aex aex aex aex aex aex aex aex aex l.aex 1.0833*** (0.0004) 1.0518*** (0.0233) 1.0831*** (0.0004) 1.0832*** (0.0004) 1.0826*** (0.0010) 0.3494* (0.2103) 1.0836*** (0.0007) 1.0877*** (0.0037) 0.3633* (0.1950) aifdi 0.8699 (0.5739) 0.7516 (0.5086) 0.8467 (0.5978) 0.8647 (0.5741) 0.8596 (0.5645) 0.6825** (0.2847) 0.8699 (0.5753) 0.8488 (0.6238) 0.6882** (0.2855) aofdi 0.0576 (0.0370) 0.0216 (0.0724) 0.0591 (0.0387) 0.0482 (0.0345) 0.0543 (0.0358) –0.0020 (0.0328) 0.0555 (0.0361) 0.0282 (0.0528) –0.0047 (0.0372) ainv 7.2822 (5.2882) 0.6663*** (0.2268) agdpg –0.4083 (0.3494) –0.1026*** (0.0348) exrate –0.0000*** (0.0000) –2.41e-11 (1.65e-11) fttrade 0.0018 (0.0019) 0.0005 (0.0006) hc 0.0052*** (0.0016) 0.0046*** (0.0017) infla –0.0000 (0.0000) 1.42e-07 (5.59e-06) popg 0.1547 (0.1527) 0.0009 (0.0075) constant –0.0274*** (0.0056) –0.6810 (0.4604) –0.0157 (0.0152) –0.0261*** (0.0055) –0.1459 (0.1195) –0.1105 (0.1099) –0.0275*** (0.0055) –0.3267 (0.2971) –0.1823 (0.1237) model diagnostics observations 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,340 2,347 2,239 2,346 2,347 2,235 countries 114 114 114 114 114 113 114 114 113 1. values in parenthesis are windmeijer’s (2005) finite-sample correction as the default two-step standard errors are biased in finite samples due to the neglected sampling error in the weighting matrix. 2. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. 3. all models estimated with gmm (xtdpdgmm in stata) using the collapse option to control for instrument proliferation. research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 7 table 3. estimations and robustness checks for the effect of foreign direct investment on imports. (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) variables aim aim aim aim aim aim aim aim aim l.aim 1.0212*** (0.0028) 0.9879*** (0.0247) 1.0210*** (0.0026) 1.0212*** (0.0028) 1.0211*** (0.0033) 1.0745*** (0.0103) 1.0212*** (0.0028) 1.0257*** (0.0026) 1.0736*** (0.0094) aifdi 0.3811 (0.6453) 0.3617 (0.5270) 0.3066 (0.6224) 0.3805 (0.6450) 0.3936 (0.6776) 1.2703** (0.6404) 0.3719 (0.6480) 0.1613 (0.6152) 0.8694* (0.4866) aofdi 0.0367 (0.0810) –0.0502 (0.1681) –0.0519 (0.1074) 0.0409 (0.0795) 0.0331 (0.1029) –0.0673 (0.0679) 0.0347 (0.0856) –0.0316 (0.0998) –0.0215 (0.0732) ainv 10.7769* (6.2746) 3.3783 (2.3380) agdpg –1.1521*** (0.3969) –0.7748*** (0.2191) exrate –0.0000 (0.0000) –8.49e-12 (2.43e-11) fttrade 0.0004 (0.0034) 0.0044 (0.0030) hc 0.0062 (0.0042) 0.0053 (0.0050) infla 0.0000 (0.0001) 4.92e-05 (4.92e05) –0.0056 (0.0184) popg 0.1739 (0.1859) –0.9352** (0.3918) constant 0.0248 (0.0418) –0.9496* (0.5194) 0.0638 (0.0471) 0.0246 (0.0414) 0.0017 (0.2254) –0.4263* (0.2590) 0.0252 (0.0427) –0.3057 (0.3289) –8.49e-12 (2.43e-11) model diagnostics observations 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,340 2,347 2,239 2,346 2,347 2,235 countries 114 114 114 114 114 113 114 114 113 1. values in parenthesis are windmeijer’s (2005) finite-sample correction as the default two-step standard errors are biased in finite samples due to the neglected sampling error in the weighting matrix. 2. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. 3. all models estimated with gmm (xtdpdgmm in stata) using the collapse option to control for instrument proliferation. table 4. estimations and robustness checks for the effect of foreign direct investment on trade openness. (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (24) (26) (27) variables ato ato ato ato ato ato ato ato ato l.ato 1.0482*** (0.0011) 1.0174*** (0.0188) 1.0480*** (0.0010) 1.0482*** (0.0011) 1.0479*** (0.0019) 1.1107*** (0.0181) 1.0483*** (0.0011) 1.0528*** (0.0033) 1.1116*** (0.0181) aifdi 1.5770 (1.0206) 1.3055 (1.0604) 1.4877 (1.0466) 1.5777 (1.0235) 1.5557 (1.0434) 2.5702** (1.0243) 1.5339 (1.0205) 1.4261 (0.9688) 2.0284** (0.9029) aofdi –0.0052 (0.1194) –0.2510 (0.4114) –0.0952 (0.1177) –0.0093 (0.1223) –0.0237 (0.1323) –0.1339 (0.1423) –0.0219 (0.1235) –0.0905 (0.1701) –0.0792 (0.1202) ainv 16.7347* (9.1374) 4.4784 (2.8000) agdpg –1.5769** (0.7245) –0.9604*** (0.2828) exrate –0.0000*** (0.0000) –8.04e-11** (4.00e-11) fttrade 0.0018 (0.0062) 0.0064* (0.0036) hc 0.0068 (0.0046) 0.0058 (0.0049) infla 0.0000 (0.0000) 3.35e-05 (2.58e-05) popg 0.3380 (0.3292) 0.0169 (0.0267) constant –0.0078 (0.0355) –1.5124* (0.7926) 0.0532 (0.0604) –0.0067 (0.0361) –0.1196 (0.3792) –0.5035* (0.2719) –0.0079 (0.0350) –0.6356 (0.6162) –1.2819*** (0.4048) model diagnostics observations 2,347 2,347 2,347 2,340 2,347 2,239 2,346 2,347 2,235 countries 114 114 114 114 114 113 114 114 113 1. values in parenthesis are windmeijer’s (2005) finite-sample correction as the default two-step standard errors are biased in finite samples due to the neglected sampling error in the weighting matrix. 2. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. 3. all models estimated with gmm (xtdpdgmm in stata) using the collapse option to control for instrument proliferation. 8 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 9 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 and other resources. the abuse of the system can cause an increase in imports of agricultural resources. also, the expatriates as well as the growing middle class of developing countries’ populations tend to develop a taste for foreign foods. these also contribute to an increase in agricultural exports. our finding is consistent with the theoretical position of antras and caballero [32] of complementarity of trade and capital flows but contrary to those of the hecksher-ohlin-mundell position. our finding is also inconsistent with the findings of djokoto [17] and latif and younis [18] on the agricultural sector of ghana, jordan, morocco, egypt, and thailand, respectively. these reported negative and neutral effects, respectively. the effect of aifdi on trade openness is also positive. the elastic magnitude of 2.0284 implies that a us$ 1 increase in aifdi would induce a more than us$ 1 increase in trade openness. the estimate turns out to be the highest among the statistically significant estimates. the elasticity can be attributable to the complementarity of aifdi and imports and exports on one hand and the synergistic effect of imports and exports on the other. theoretically, foreign direct investment and trade are related [29-31]. whilst hecksher [29], and mundell [30,31], posited a substitution effect, antras and caballero [32] noted a complementary effect in line with our findings. our findings are consistent with empirical evidence from developing countries [14,15,19,20]. whilst umar et al. [21] found a negative effect for lowerincome countries and lower-middle-income countries, a neutral effect was reported for upper-middle-income countries. this result points not only to the presence of capital flows and trade in developing countries but also to a significant trade-enhancing role of aifdi in developing country agriculture. as foreign capital and trade are proxies of globalisation [54-56], these pointers are evidence of the globalisation of agriculture in developing countries. the coefficients of aofdi on exports, imports and trade openness are negative and statistically insignificant. recalling that the aofdi was measured as a dummy, the negative sign suggests fewer observations of aofdi than non-observation of aofdi. this is not surprising as developing countries are not generally the source of foreign capital, rather they are recipients [22-27]. dunning [57] and dunning and narula [58] theorised that developing countries are in stages i and ii of development in which the inflow of fdi outstrips the outflow of fdi. although empirical evidence shows some developing countries have moved to stage iii [59-64], many developing countries are still far from becoming a net exporter of capital. our finding is inconsistent with the theory of substitution [29,26,30] and complementarity [32] between capital flows and trade. our findings also departed from the statistically significant positive effect of ofdi, and trade found by sun and zhang [28]. 4.4 discussion of control variables the coefficients of ainv are positive but statistically significant for exports. thus, a us$ 1 increase in ainv table 5. complete models for exports, imports, and trade openness. (9) (18) (27) variables aex aim ato l.aex 0.3633* (0.1950) l.aim 1.0736*** (0.0094) l.ato 1.1116*** (0.0181) aifdi 0.6882** (0.2855) 0.8694* (0.4866) 2.0284** (0.9029) aofdi –0.0047 (0.0372) –0.0215 (0.0732) –0.0792 (0.1202) ainv 0.6663*** (0.2268) 3.3783 (2.3380) 4.4784 (2.8000) agdpg –0.1026*** (0.0348) –0.7748*** (0.2191) –0.9604*** (0.2828) exrate –2.41e-11 (1.65e-11) –8.49e-12 (2.43e-11) –8.04e-11** (4.00e-11) fttrade 0.0005 (0.0006) 0.0044 (0.0030) 0.0064* (0.0036) hc 0.0046*** (0.0017) 0.0053 (0.0050) 0.0058 (0.0049) infla 1.42e-07 (5.59e-06) 4.92e-05 (4.92e-05) 3.35e-05 (2.58e-05) popg 0.0009 (0.0075) –0.0056 (0.0184) 0.0169 (0.0267) constant –0.1823 (0.1237) –0.9352** (0.3918) –1.2819*** (0.4048) model diagnostics observations 2,235 2,235 2,235 countries 113 113 113 probability of 2nd order serials 0.7288 0.4430 0.9352 probability of the sarganhansen test 0.3024 0.1282 0.1002 1. values in parenthesis are windmeijer’s (2005) finite-sample correction as the default two-step standard errors are biased in finite samples due to the neglected sampling error in the weighting matrix. 2. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. 3. all models estimated with gmm (xtdpdgmm in stata) using the collapse option to control for instrument proliferation. 10 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 will induce less than a us$ 1 (66 cents) increase in exports. exports originate from the supply which also arises from production. ainv, therefore, contributes to agricultural exports. this is consistent with the findings of osei et al. [33] and tahir et al. [43]. the coefficients of agdpg are negative and statistically significant for exports, imports, and trade openness. it was expected that an increase in output would contribute to the production, supply, and export of commodities, hence a positive effect. however, this did not turn out to be the case. regarding imports, the negative sign suggests a substitution effect of agricultural growth and imports. an increase in agricultural output would lead to increased provision of agricultural goods that would otherwise have been imported. whilst this is consistent with mbogela [34] for african countries and osei et al. [33] for lower-middle-income countries, others have reported a positive effect [15,19,21,28,43]. the negative coefficient of exrate suggests increasing currency value per us$ would discourage trade openness. although increasing exrate would provide increased local currency sales revenue from exports, the cost of production for export would go up and ultimately discourage exports. for imports, it is a truism that increased exrate means imports become more expensive, discouraging imports. the combination of these explains the negative relationship between exrate and ato, albeit a minuscule value. umar et al. [21] found a positive sign for exrate for lower-middle-income countries but a neutral effect for lower-middle-income and upper-middleincome countries. the coefficient for fttrade is positive for all three models in table 5 but weakly significant for model 27. thus, freedom to trade internationally enhances trade openness. this result is expected because the freedom to trade reduces the constraints to trade, thus, encouraging trade. the neutral effect of fttrade found by mbogela [34] disagrees with our findings. the coefficient of hc is positive for exports, imports, and trade openness. however, the magnitude is statistically indistinguishable from zero for the export model. hc contributes to labour. recalling that the marginal productivity of labour is positive, hc would enhance production, the source of export supplies. tahir et al. [43] and umar et al. [21] also found a human capital-enhancing role in trade, albeit for trade openness. the positive finding of umar et al. [21] was about upper-middle-income countries. for lower-income countries, however, umar et al. [21] reported a neutral effect. aihu and chedjou [14] reported a neutral effect of hc for all the trade measures. the coefficients of infla and popg are statistically indistinguishable from zero regarding exports, imports, and trade openness. the results for inflation are contrary to the negative effects reported by osei et al. [33]. our results for the population are also consistent with those of osei et al. [33] for trade openness. whilst harding and javorcik [15] reported a negative effect on exports, karaca et al. [19], mbogela [34], and sun and zhang [28] found positive effects of population on trade openness. it must be noted that some results are inconsistent with the previous literature, such as the effect of inflation or population. this may be because all countries are considered for the analysis at the same time, and no differentiation is made at all. consequently, the effect of certain variables on the data in specific types of countries remains obscured. 5. conclusions and recommendations following gaps in the trade and capital flow literature regarding agriculture, we estimated the effect of fdi on exports and imports and trade openness, using 115 developing countries from 1995 to 2020 taking account of endogeneity in macroeconomic variables. whilst aifdi has a positive effect on aex and aim, the effect of the latter is higher than that of the former. the larger effect of the latter over the former would impose foreign exchange pressure on developing countries. the estimate of the coefficient of aifdi on trade openness turns out to be the highest among the statistically significant estimates. freedom to trade internationally enhanced trade openness. agricultural output growth and exchange rate did not enhance trade, however, measured. human capital enhanced exports. aofdi, infla and popg had no effect on trade however measured. to escalate international trade in agricultural products, developing countries must continue to promote aifdi. this requires paying attention to appropriate management of the macro economy; keeping down the inflation rate, optimising the currency exchange rate, and keeping interest rates down to boost investment among others. whilst these would enhance aifdi that would promote trade, these would directly promote trade. as developing countries have often suffered foreign exchange pressures, they must enhance foreign exchange receipts through increased exports. increasing human capital can increase exports. this would provide the needed labour for production and increase supplies that lead to increased exports. developing countries must continue to support measures that promote freedom to trade. as many developing countries have acceded to the world trade organisation agreement, it provides a regimen that will compel developing countries to follow policies that make for more free trade among members. a limitation of this study lies in the absence of partial 11 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 analysis by country groups, which would have provided a better understanding of the phenomenon under study. this study is also limited to developing countries that are net recipients of aifdi. further research can consider developed countries and transition economies. author contributions charlotte badu-prah: contributed data and analysis tools; wrote the paper; reviewed the paper. akua a. afrane-arthur: contributed data and analysis tools; wrote the paper; reviewed the paper. ferguson k. gidiglo: contributed data and analysis tools; wrote the paper, reviewed the paper. francis y. srofenyoh: contributed data and analysis tools; wrote the paper, reviewed the paper. kofi aaron a-o. agyei-henaku: contributed materials, and analysis tools; wrote the paper, reviewed the paper. justice g. djokoto: conceived and designed the experiments, analysed and interpreted the data wrote the paper; reviewed the paper. funding this research received no external funding. data availability data used in the study were extracted from publicly available international sources. conflict of interest all authors disclosed no conflict of interest. references [1] agriculture and food [internet]. world bank; 2023 [cited 2023 apr 7]. available from: https://www. worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/overview [2] djokoto, j.g., 2021. level of development, foreign direct investment and domestic investment in food manufacturing. f1000research. 10, 72. 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[49] roodman, d., 2009. how to do xtabond2: an introduction to difference and system gmm in stata. the stata journal. 9(1), 86-136. [50] kripfganz, s. (editor), 2019. generalized method of moments estimation of linear dynamic panel data models. proceedings of the 2019 london stata conference; 2019 sep 5-6; london. [51] sargan, j.d., 1958. the estimation of economic relationships using instrumental variables. econometrica: journal of the econometric society. 26(3), 393-415. [52] sargan, j.d., 1988. testing for misspecification after estimating using instrumental variables. contributions to econometrics: john denis sargan. 1, 213-235. [53] rosewarne, s. 2019. the structural transformation of australian agriculture: globalisation, corporatisation and the devalorisation of labour. journal of australian political economy. 84, 175-218. [54] fujie, s., bevan, p., frankowska, a., 2019. the impact of globalisation on agriculture in a coffee-producing rural community in southern ethiopia since 2011. international journal of ethiopian studies. 13(1), 91-106. [55] nugroho, a.d., lakner, z., 2022. impact of economic globalisation on agriculture in developing countries: a review. agricultural economics. 68(5), 180-188. [56] scoppola, m., 2021. globalisation in agriculture and food: the role of multinational enterprises. european review of agricultural economics. 48(4), 741-784. [57] dunning, j.h., 1981. explaining the international direct investment position of countries: towards a dynamic or developmental approach. weltwirtschaftliches archiv. 117, 30-64. [58] dunning, j.h., narula, r., 1996. the investment development path revisited. foreign direct investment and governments: catalysts for economic restructuring. 1-41. [59] djokoto, j.g., 2021. the investment development path theory and small states. research in globalization. 3, 100048. [60] djokoto, j.g., pomeyie, p., 2021. level of income and the investment development path theory: evidence from africa. sage open. 11(4), 21582440211061334. [61] dunning, j.h., 1986. the investment development cycle revisited. weltwirtschaftliches archiv. 122, 667-676. [62] duran, j.j., ubeda, f., 2005. the investment development path of newly developed countries. international journal of the economics of business. 12(1), 123-137. [63] frenken, j.h., mbuvi, d., 2017. country risk, fdi flows and convergence trends in the context of the investment development path. unu-merit working papers. 5, 1-17. [64] satoglu, e.b., 2017. emerging through foreign investment: investment development path estimation of mint economies. advances in economics and business. 5(5), 256-264. appendix 1. list of acronyms. aex agricultura exports agdpg agricultura gdp growth aifdi agricultural inward foreign direct investment aim agricultural imports ainv agricultural investments ato agricultural trade openness exrate exchange rate fdi foreign direct investment fttrade absence of tariff and non-tariff barriers on trade gdp gross domestic product hc human capital ifdi inward foreign direct investment infla inflation lic lower income lmic lower-middle-income countries ofdi outward foreign direct investment popg population growth rate trade trade umic upper-middle-income countries https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators https://www.heritage.org/index/explore?view=by-region-country-year https://www.heritage.org/index/explore?view=by-region-country-year 14 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 25 appendix 2. list of developing countries in the data. afghanistan comoros india morocco singapore algeria congo indonesia mozambique solomon islands angola congo, dr iran namibia south africa bahamas costa rica iraq nepal sri lanka bahrain côte d’ivoire israel nicaragua suriname bangladesh djibouti jamaica niger syria barbados dominica jordan nigeria tanzania belize dominican rep. kenya oman thailand benin ecuador kiribati pakistan timor-leste bolivia egypt kuwait panama togo botswana el salvador laos papua new guinea tonga brazil equatorial guinea lesotho paraguay trinidad and tobago brunei darussalam eswatini liberia peru tunisia burkina faso ethiopia libya philippines türkiye burundi fiji madagascar republic of korea uganda cabo verde gabon malawi rwanda uae cambodia gambia malaysia saint lucia uruguay cameroon ghana maldives saint vincent and the grenadines vanuatu central african republic guatemala mali sao tome and principe venezuela chad guinea mauritania saudi arabia viet nam chile guinea-bissau mauritius senegal yemen china, mainland guyana mexico seychelles zimbabwe colombia honduras mongolia sierra leone appendix 3. data analyses strategy. general method of moments 2 step 1 step instrument proliferation accepted model appendix 3. data analyses strategy. appendix 2. list of developing countries in the data. afghanistan comoros india morocco singapore algeria congo indonesia mozambique solomon islands angola congo, dr iran namibia south africa bahamas costa rica iraq nepal sri lanka bahrain côte d’ivoire israel nicaragua suriname bangladesh djibouti jamaica niger syria barbados dominica jordan nigeria tanzania belize dominican rep. kenya oman thailand benin ecuador kiribati pakistan timor-leste bolivia egypt kuwait panama togo botswana el salvador laos papua new guinea tonga brazil equatorial guinea lesotho paraguay trinidad and tobago brunei darussalam eswatini liberia peru tunisia burkina faso ethiopia libya philippines türkiye burundi fiji madagascar republic of korea uganda cabo verde gabon malawi rwanda uae cambodia gambia malaysia saint lucia uruguay cameroon ghana maldives saint vincent and the grenadines vanuatu central african republic guatemala mali sao tome and principe venezuela chad guinea mauritania saudi arabia viet nam chile guinea-bissau mauritius senegal yemen china, mainland guyana mexico seychelles zimbabwe colombia honduras mongolia sierra leone 1 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: ashebir seyoum feyisa, department of plant science, college of agriculture and natural resource, bonga university, bonga, ethiopia; email: ashebirseyoum20@gmail.com received: 6 march 2022; received in revised form: 1 april 2022; accepted: 12 april 2022; published: 28 april 2022 citation: feyisa, a.s., 2022. review of the role of orphan crops in food security. research on world agricultural economy. 3(2), 501. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i2.501 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i2.501 review article review of the role of orphan crops in food security ashebir seyoum feyisa* department of plant science, college of agriculture and natural resource, bonga university, bonga, ethiopia abstract: ethiopia is one of the most populated countries in africa. agriculture employs over 70% of the population. it is dominated by small-scale farmers who practice rain-fed mixed farming by using traditional technology, adopting a low input and low output production system. as a result, it is vulnerable to adverse weather conditions. cereal crops provide food for majority ethiopians, so most agricultural transformation plans prioritize increasing cereal crop productivity. however, about five million people experience food insecurity each year and require support. population growth, environmental degradation, conflict, and climate change are the most serious threats to nation’s food security. in a time when the food supply cannot keep up with population expansion, there is a need for holistic solutions to development-related issues such as food insecurity, malnutrition, and poverty. despite ethiopia being a center of origin and diversity for several food crops, the potential benefits of underutilized indigenous crops are yet not exploited. however, they can play a significant part in human nutrition, income, and medicinal value. as a result, crop diversification may be the best choice for achieving household food security. one way to help nation’s food systems diversify is to include more orphan crops. even though a small portion of the country’s land is dedicated to underused crops, more than 20% of the population relies on them for food. orphan crops, such as enset, which can feed 100 million people, can help to attain food security in ethiopia. as a result, promoting and researching these crops is the most sustainable strategy for lowering and managing poverty and food insecurity in ethiopia. keywords: agricultural policy; cassava; ensete; food insecurity; root crops 1. introduction why did the country of human origin and ancient civilization become a symbol of poverty and famine? how can a nation where more than half of the population engages in farming suffer from food insecurity? how did poverty bring ethiopia, the epitome of african independence, to its knees? these are the kinds of queries that all citizens have. we need to illustrate each agricultural growth barrier to provide accurate and practical solutions to such challenges. to manage the existing obstacles: it is necessary to look deep into the country’s agricultural sector. agriculture is the foundation of ethiopia’s economy, and 82 percent of the country’s population lives in rural areas that depend solely on it [1]. it is the economy’s backbone, accounting for approximately 32.7% of total gdp [2], mailto:ashebirseyoum20@gmail.com http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9801-5574 2 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 contributes 79 percent of foreign earnings, and is one of the most important sources of raw materials and capital for investment and market. it is also the most source of employment, accounting for roughly 73 percent of total jobs [1]. the sector is dominated by small-scale farmers who practice rain-fed mixed farming by employing traditional technology, adopting a low input and low output production system [3]. despite various ethiopian governments’ efforts over the last half-century or more to turn the country from an agriculture-based economy to a manufacturing hub, agriculture continues to be the most key sector in terms of employment, revenue, and food security [4]. however, it is renowned for the recurrent food shortages caused by droughts, natural catastrophes, pests, a lack of rainfall, and a lack of technical developments. in addition, poor productivity resulted in an unbalance between population and production, resulting in the extension of the agricultural area through deforestation and rangelands. the world’s population is anticipated to reach 9.8 billion by 2050 [5]. according to tilman et al. [6], to feed all those people by 2050, the world would need to produce 70% more food than it does today. however, the circumstances do not favor completing such a massive assignment. currently, almost 800 million people are malnourished, 2 billion are micronutrient-deficient, and another 2 billion are overweight or obese. more than 50% of the african population is exposed to moderate or severe food insecurity. the highest level of food insecurity was recorded in east africa (63% of the population, or 272 million) [7]. in ethiopia, food insecurity is a significant challenge. despite various efforts by the government and non-governmental organizations to support and improve the lives of millions of poor farmers, the majority of the population is food insecure, an estimated 20.4 million people currently require food assistance [8]. the nation’s food security situation is inextricably tied to severe, periodic food shortages and famine caused by continuous drought. ethiopia is particularly vulnerable to severe seasonal droughts, which have occurred every decade since 1953. the droughts have resulted in widespread crop loss and livestock fatalities. as a result, inflation and food prices have risen, increasing displacement and soaring malnutrition rates. the fao [9] highlighted three significant factors for the growth of food insecurity in east africa: violent conflicts, climatic adversity, and the global economic environment. climate change is making the world less suited for agriculture. a 2 °c increase in average temperatures is projected to create dramatic alterations in seasons and agricultural production [10]. drought devastated 363 million people in sub-saharan africa alone between 1980 and 2014 [11]. according to pacillo et al. [12], climate also exacerbates existing household risks and vulnerabilities, increasing the likelihood and intensity of the conflict. conflicts in northern ethiopia have made plowing extremely difficult since oxen needed to till farmlands have been looted and deliberately slaughtered. furthermore, agricultural supplies such as seeds and fertilizer were scarce. moreover, the conflict between russia and ukraine has already harmed global wheat prices. ethiopia, which relies on wheat imports, is especially vulnerable to possible wheat price shocks since it is already suffering from internal socioeconomic and climatic shocks, both of which have resulted in high food prices. to reduce the impact of climate change and increase/ maintain world food production. there two potential approaches can be pursued. the first involves increasing yield per unit area of crops through genetic enhancement and improved agronomic practices [13]. second, there should be breeding activities for stress tolerance and resource efficiency in marginal areas, and more research must work toward the introduction, assessment, and adaptation of underutilized crops for nutritional diversification. for example, demeke [14] claims that 60 mature enset plants (orphan crop) may offer adequate food for a household of five to six people over the course of a year when consumed with other dietary components. ethiopia is rich in biological resources. it had mentioned by several scientists that the country exhibit extraordinary genetic diversity in crops such as barley (hordeum vulgare), wheat (triticum spp.), sorghum (sorghum bicolor), teff (eragrostis tef), sesame (sesame indicum), enset, anchote, and other lesser-known but potential species of plants. ethiopia is the center of diversity for eleven cultivated crop species that have been identified [15]. despite being a center of food crop diversity and domestication, ethiopia has been the largest receiver of targeted food aid [16]. it is ranked 174 out of 188 nations in the 2015 un human development index, and 104 out of 119 in the global hunger index [17]. rural poverty is also prevalent, with 30.4 percent of rural households living in poverty. according to the fao [18], both chronic and transitory food insecurity persist at the family level, and millions of people remain susceptible as a result of various shocks and pressures. on average, 32% and 40% of ethiopia’s population are malnourished, and they consume less than the required daily calorie intake [19]. the country’s rapidly growing population, low agricultural production, food insecurity, and reliance on food imports all highlight the importance of a comprehensive agricultural policy. agricultural policies, in general, are the laws that govern agricultural activity as a whole and play a significant role in agricultural economic growth [20]. 3 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 according to a large body of literature, governments define and decide on policies, commonly to achieve specific goals. agricultural policy, for example, could be described as the maximization of agricultural output following consumer demand. agricultural policy is critical for countries, particularly ethiopia because it affects food security, water, the environment, jobs, and the economy. since 1991, ethiopia’s government has implemented a variety of agricultural policies to eradicate poverty. the most visible and long-lasting economy-wide strategy to guide development efforts has been agricultural development-led industrialization [21]. according to some reports, food insecurity is a structural problem in many rural parts of ethiopia. even in years with abundant rainfall and pleasant weather, millions of ethiopians have always been at risk of starvation. approximately 10% of ethiopians are chronically food insecure, 2.7 million people required emergency food assistance in 2014, and 238,761 children require treatment for severe and acute malnutrition [22]. as a result, shortterm crisis response solutions cannot address the underlying source of the problem. it necessitates looking beyond the immediate stimuli, such as extreme weather events. as a result, an alternative food crop that can help to reduce climate change while also producing a reasonable yield in unpredictable weather should be available. given the country’s current food crop deficit, crop diversification can be a critical option. one opportunity to support food system diversification in ethiopia is through the greater inclusion of orphan crops. as a result, this review had been conducted to analyze the potential of some selected orphan or underutilized crops for enhanced food and nutrition security in ethiopia, emphasizing the beneficial aspects of these crops as well as their relevance in ethiopia’s socioeconomics. finally, it seeks to demonstrate how orphan crops might become a game-changer in ethiopia’s food crisis issue if government policies encourage the agricultural community to embrace these crops on a large scale. 2. impediments to ethiopian agriculture growth and development in ethiopia, food security is the great challenge and most crucial constraint to further growth and development concerning agriculture. this condition has arisen a strong dependence on rain-fed agriculture. ethiopian agriculture had characterized by cereal crop production, but productivity remains poor. a significant amount of money is invested in agricultural extension programs to boost cereal crop production and productivity. however, domestic demand for cereal crops is increasing, and the government has been importing cereal crops, especially wheat, to balance the domestic market for the past ten years. despite the government’s efforts to ensure the nation’s food security, poverty affects a large population. according to degefa and anbessa [23], food insecurity is on the rise, with 55 percent of farmers unable to feed their families for more than six months. every year, at least seven million people require food assistance because efforts to address the problem through grain-led approaches have failed to keep up with population growth. furthermore, ethiopian trade statistics show that the country imports nearly $2 billion in food products each year. in line with this, the additional impact of conflict, climate variability, and economic slowdowns and downturns raise the effect of food insecurity and threaten food safety. ethiopia’s agricultural output is complex, with significant variation in crop types grown across various regions and ecosystems. teff (local small grain), wheat, barley, corn, sorghum, and millet are the significant grain crops grown in the country. these crops are primarily rainfed and produced throughout the country. despite the increased area of cereal crops production, most cereal crops in the country have seen an increase in demand and price. for instance, according to anteneh & asrat [24], wheat demand will increase by 90%, while supply will grow by 73%, implying that there will be a supply deficit in the future. this predicament has arisen in population growth, urbanization, and food habit changes. maize production in ethiopia is estimated to reach 8.63 million tonnes in 2021/2022. this increase in production was caused by the use of improved hybrid seed and increased demand as feed for both humans and livestock. despite the production rise, the country expected to import 35,000 tonnes for food aid. ethiopia is currently dealing with a difficult situation in terms of foreign exchange earnings. it is due to unbalanced trade between foreign countries. thus, the borrowing required to finance this trade deficit has resulted in a high foreign exchange shortage and debt burden. ethiopia’s public debt was 53,667 million dollars in 2020, a decrease of 29 million dollars since 2019. this amount means that the debt in 2020 will be 55.43 percent of ethiopia’s gdp, a 2.49 percentage point decrease from 2019 when it was 57.92 percent of gdp (icis, 2020). the current conflict in the country’s north will exacerbate the situation. aside from the population that requires annual food aid assistance due to natural disasters, millions more people have joined the food aid support list. aside from the humanitarian crisis, the conflict has impacted agricultural production because it began during the cropping season. moreover, the military expenses related to the conflict and the impact of the covid-19 pandemic resulted in pro4 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 duction and export contractions, with an ensuing further degradation of the economic environment. the conflict also reduced sesame production, as 40 percent of production was in the conflict zone. the one thing we should remember is that oil crops are the country’s second-largest export earner after coffee. as a result, the country’s export earnings will be under pressure. it indicated that the country had in the wrong direction in terms of strategy. thus, new developmental strategies are needed to restore economic growth and mitigate the consequence of humanmade famine which, starts to knock on the country’s door. various findings indicate that emphasizing agriculture in ethiopia necessitates political and economic commitment from all parties involved [25]. 2.1 agricultural policy the ethiopian economy is heavily reliant on agriculture as the primary source of employment, foreign exchange earnings, and food security for the vast majority of the country’s population. however, agricultural performance was unsatisfactory, as poverty remained a significant feature of the country in the world. in this regard, the lack of appropriate policies and strategies had viewed as the root cause of the sector’s previous stagnation. as a result, to address this issue and promote agricultural growth as an engine for the industry and the overall economy, the government devised the agricultural development led industrialization national development strategy (adli) [26]. the policy prioritizes modernizing smallholder agriculture and increasing yield productivity through appropriate technology, certified seeds, fertilizers, rural credit facilities, and technical assistance. the policy made changes, particularly in the area of chronic poverty alleviation. it had, however, failed to fulfill its primary goal of expanding the industry’s contribution to national gdp. furthermore, the policy provided little attainment for pastoral development [27]. as a result, domestic supply shortages of agricultural and manufacturing commodities are significant causes of ethiopia’s current inflation, high food prices, which primarily affect the welfare of low-income households [20]. despite the government’s commitment and an admirable strong reputation of agricultural support, the sector has underperformed. several findings suggest that to transform the nation’s agricultural strategy, there must be a clear understanding of the complex issues involved, evidence-based analysis and policy recommendations, and consideration of alternative options [28]. in addition, the agricultural transformation is required to facilitate the transition of an economy from natural-based activities to manufacturing and services. because as agricultural productivity increases to its full potential, it will be able to provide affordable food and other raw materials to support structural change while also allocating labor and capital for other sectors. however, ethiopia’s agricultural sector performs poorly. as a result, the government must commit to improving the performance of this critical sector of the economy. 2.2 commitment and prioritization the government played a critical role in educating people about the importance of rural development and ensuring a stable rural economy. governments must begin by establishing rural development as a national mission, and they must do so in consultation with the people. farmers no longer had to be concerned about who would buy their products. they could concentrate their efforts on growing them as much as possible. the farmer was not in charge of the entire supply chain. however, in ethiopia, the value chain of the majority of stable crops was semi-structured, and the government placed a special emphasis on cash crops such as coffee and sesame, which are the country’s main export commodities. maize is one of the most significant contributors to ethiopia’s economic and social development. in ethiopia, maize is grown by more than 9 million smallholder households, more than any other crop. maize productivity and output have more than doubled in the last two decades. the yield, 4.3 tons/ha in 2020, is the second-highest in sub-saharan africa [29]. several studies have found that if yield potentials are realized, maize can help to improve food security. however, several constraints exist throughout the maize value chain, including drawbacks in production, aggregation, and trading, as well as demand sinks or end markets [30]. wheat is a significant stable and cash crop in ethiopia, contributing to increased income, food security, employment, and national gdp growth [31]. even though wheat productivity showed an increasing trend in the past two decades, there is still a 20% deficit that must be met through imports. when compared to maize, the wheat value chain is semi-structured and superior. however, a lack of market information leads to uncontrollable price increases [32]. as a result, the government took on significant responsibility in developing policies and programs to ensure that farmers received all of the assistance they required to succeed. the government must also play a critical role in prioritizing the allocation of limited resources. it should consult with stakeholders over which crop products to invest in. furthermore, crop selection should take into account both food security and imports. according to yigezu [25], ethiopia has a diverse range of climates and soil types, allowing it to cultivate a diverse range of horticultural crops. furthermore, the country has a sizable labor force 5 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 as well as plentiful water resources. its proximity to middle eastern markets benefits imports of fruits and vegetables. as a result, concentrating on agriculture in ethiopia necessitates both political and economic commitment from all parties involved. 2.3 agricultural research and development despite the availability of several improved agricultural technologies developed by ethiopia’s research system over the last four decades, smallholder farmers have adopted these innovations at a very low rate. as a result, agricultural productivity has stagnated and, crop yields have been low, exposing the country to recurring food shortages and national food insecurity [29]. agricultural research in the country focused on developing new technologies, primarily through on-station research, to reach farmers through the public-sector extension system. despite several research centers and more than 40 public universities in the country, the small-scale farmer still uses traditional production tools. the government put a large amount of money into agricultural research activities. however, most researches had done for the sake of benefiting researchers. as a result, scientists should assess how applicable their research findings are and how much they contribute to agricultural development. furthermore, research activities should be directed toward farmer demand rather than quality. ethiopia’s agricultural sector can be transformed if the government implements a triangle system that includes interactions between farmers, extension, and research. the government prioritized extension and committed funding. in 1994, the government implemented the agricultural development led industrialization strategy (adli). in 1995, a new extension approach, participatory demonstration and training extension system (padetes) had adopted within the framework of adli. the strategy enabled the establishment of nearly 12,500 farmer training centers across ethiopia, and approximately 83,000 das had trained in total, with a reported 56,000 staffed on-site [33]. according to berhane et al. [33], an extension system promotes modern inputs such as chemical fertilizers, improved seeds, herbicides, and irrigation. however, it has an indirect effect on increasing productivity levels. furthermore, the authors argue that agricultural productivity increases in ethiopia are not yet knowledge-driven. therefore, the agricultural extension system should change to become more knowledge-driven and problem-solving. the government also has a responsibility to enhance the number of extension workers. there are 21 development agents (das) per 10,000 farmers, with even more in high-potential areas [33]. a ratio of around one worker for every 476 farmers. despite these efforts to improve the extension system’s effectiveness and efficiency, the system is not yielding the desired results. many technologies for increasing yield and quality have been developed in agriculture, but they are not reaching smallholder farmers. similarly, the agricultural sector is underutilized in food self-sufficiency and poverty reduction. it is due to ineffective implementation and, lack of strategic intervention. agricultural extension workers are frequently used as a political tool to deal with the nation’s majority population. there will be a change in the sector if there is a genuine golden triangle model of interaction between research, extension, and farmers. 2.4 food safety and food security hunger and malnutrition are today’s main concerns, with 960 million people either hungry or undernourished. food insecurity is a persistent and significant issue in ethiopia. natural calamities such as severe drought, floods, instability, and conflict are the leading causes of food shortages in ethiopia. these factors have deteriorated, resulting in large-scale displacement along the borders of somalia, oromia, and snnpr [34]. ethiopia’s government is taking a significant leadership role in addressing the problem of food insecurity by implementing programs that serve the diverse needs of disadvantaged families. it is making substantial investments and achievements, notably through its productive safety net program [35]. food insecurity has traditionally had regarded as an issue primarily impacting rural populations. as a result, most research on food insecurity excludes urban inhabitants. recent findings indicate that, however, have begun to recognize the necessity to include food insecurity as a problem affecting the urban population [36]. inflation had a significant factor in the rise of food insecurity in ethiopia’s cities. since mid-2005, the country has been experiencing a spiral of price increases, with grain prices increasing by more than 100%. to address the issue, the ethiopian government and humanitarian groups establish an initiative to assist urban poor food insecure families in improving their nutritional quality and addressing the underlying causes of food insecurity by giving them food and cash. however, it had a negative impact on the population as the trend made the people to wait for the aid and create dependency. food safety, public health, and sustainability must all be considered while developing instruments and strategies to attain food security because food chains are complicated and opaque [28]. furthermore, the regulation of food fraud is a new issue that needs attention. food security has been jeopardized when there are insufficient supplies 6 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 of healthy and safe foods or when customers’ purchasing power is constrained [38]. food safety and food security are unavoidably complementary goals in the pursuit of hunger abolition. one of the tenets is that unsafe food does not help food security issues. food safety and quality controls, on the other hand, can occasionally restrict the amount of food available, exacerbating food scarcity [39]. the cultivation of biofuel crops is another issue concerning food security. biofuel is gaining popularity in most regions of the world, particularly in developed nations, due to its sustainability. however, it has become a difficult topic because of rising commodity costs, a negative impact on food security, and, eventually, the issue of climate change. biofuel consumption is predicted to rise in the coming years. however, there are significant worries about the impact of growing biofuel production on food security. biofuel demand has the highest impact on food security by rising food costs and increasing import reliance [40]. others argue that growing demand for sustainable biofuels would drive investment in agricultural production and that there may be synergies between biofuel and food production by bringing investment into relatively underdeveloped areas with limited access to input and output markets. according to han et al. [41], the use of maize as a biofuel crop in china could lead to shortages of feed, growth in imports, and price increases. in addition, the price effects on maize have also been reflected in food grain prices through substitution effects and livestock prices. food safety is an umbrella phrase that incorporates various aspects of food handling, preparation, and storage to avoid disease and harm. foods can become contaminated at any stage during the manufacturing process. the food and agriculture organization (fao) of the united nations (un) defines food security as “food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” [42]. food security, on the other hand, is dependent not only on the availability of food but also on the ability of the home to prepare and store food, as well as the families’ access to the available food. climate change will also have an influence on people’s capacity to use food successfully by raising the potential of water and food-related infections (figure 1). access to food refers to the capacity to access a sufficient amount and quality of food, whether through purchase or production. climate change, food prices, covid-19, productivity, and the value chain all have an impact on the food supply. climate prediction models indicate that agricultural productivity will be greatly impacted in the future. the anticipated rise in average global temperature caused by increasing greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions into the atmosphere, as well as higher depletion of water resources owing to increased climatic variability, would pose a severe danger to global food security [43]. aside from the effects of climate change, agricultural output is being limited by rising input costs such as labor and fertilizer. while the primary cause for increased fertilizer costs is the high cost of coal and natural gas, trade policies are also to blame. high fertilizer prices may impose inflationary pressures on food prices, exacerbating food security issues at a time when the covid-19 epidemic and climate change are making food availability more difficult. the scarcity and high cost of fertilizers will impact african food systems shortly. millions will face starvation as a result of low productivity. reduced yields, followed by increasing food costs, will be a significant cause of inflation and a severe danger to food security and political stability in many sub-saharan african nations. figure 1. overview of the interrelationship between food safety and food security [44] 7 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 3. potential benefits of underutilized root and tuber crops production natural calamities had a significant impact on ethiopian agricultural production. the agricultural sector’s success or failure is heavily influenced by the country’s topographic settings, degree of human interference, and underlying biophysical features. farming practices in the country disrupted entire ecosystems, particularly soils, resulting in rapid nutrient depletion in the soil. in addition, environmental sustainability issue also becomes a serious agenda because of rapid industrialization, urbanization, and population growth. as a result, farmers would have better necessity accessibility to other crops that use new, environmentally sustainable technology to ensure food security and environmental sustainability. crops that can withstand climate change and provide higher productivity are needed to address the food security problem. reviews of crop susceptibility to climate change show that root crops like cassava may be best suited to withstand climatic variation than most major tropical staple crops, making it a crucial food security crop for the future [45]. kusse [46] identifies four plausible reasons for increasing and encouraging root and tuber crop production and productivity in ethiopia. they are one of the most and highly adaptable crops to harsh environments; they are nutritionally rich staple foods crops; they are suitable for double cropping to overcome food security issues; and they can be a year-round food source. the major root and tuber crops found entirely in ethiopia include; enset, potato, taro, yams, cassava, and sweet potato [47]. ethiopia has diverse agro-ecological zones that are suitable for the production of a wide range of food crops. however, the area allocated for root crop production is limited. the significant root and tuber crops contribute the most to the traditional food system of many ethiopians [48]. different findings reveal that the high yield gaps between potential and actual yield in rainfed agriculture in africa show that there is still enormous potential for intensification. along with cereals, highland banana, false banana, root and tuber crops (e.g., cassava, sweet potato, yam, and irish potato), and aroids (e.g., taro and cocoyam) are important staple crops in ethiopia. however, root crops such as potatoes, sweet potatoes, taro, and cassava accounted for 2% of ethiopia’s total cropping area [49]. for instance, cassava is among the most widely cultivated crops in some districts of the wolaita zone, southern ethiopia [50]. according to tafesse et al. [51], cassava has the potential to yield 80 t/ha of the fresh root within a 12-month growing season, compared to averages of 22.4 t/ha in the main cassava producing area. it indicates that if the ethiopian agriculture revolution considers neglected crops, they can contribute to attaining the food security of millions of small-scale farmers in ethiopia. cassava is one of the most extensively produced carbohydrate crops in the globe. it can be a cash crop and a source of industrial raw material. it is the fourth most important food crop in the developing countries after rice, wheat and maize [52]. it is an important source of food calories in sub-saharan africa, fulfilling a critical role as a food security crop [53]. its roots are also one of the most important sources of commercial starch. in fact, the crop is the second most important source of starch worldwide after maize [54]. despite the growing importance of cassava as a food security and income generating crop for smallholder farmers in ethiopia, as well as for its potential to contribute to national economic, cassava production and productivity in ethiopia are low compared to other crops [55]. however, taking a look at some of the possible benefits of cassava production in ethiopia will show why the government should prioritize root and tuber crop cultivation. 3.1 flour production cereal prices have risen significantly in the last two decades as cereal production has leveled off [56,57]. inflation has aggravated food insecurity in ethiopian cities. thus, the potential of root crops such as cassava to strengthen food security deserves attention. several countries are interested in promoting local flour sources as a partial substitute for wheat flour in food products [58]. the use of cassava flour as a composite in various food products could reduce costs and increase local production [59]. furthermore, gluten-free non-wheat flour made from root and tuber crops like cassava has helped to avoid the combined impact of growing food prices and wheat allergy. 3.2 starch production according to desta and tigabu [60], starch production in ethiopia is low, and only two private limited companies provide close to 40% of the total starch demand in the country. the remaining balance is filled dominantly from abroad with high foreign currency. presently, maize, wheat, cassava, and potato are the dominant crops widely starch extraction. cassava crop will probably have the potential to be cultivated and valued over other root crops due to their low input requirements, pest resistance, and ability to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change [60]. cassava starch is superior to other starch source crops such as maize, wheat, sweet potato, and rice because of its high grade, excellent thickening, neutral taste, desirable texture, and 8 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 relatively low cost. according to nuwamanya et al. [61] findings the ash, fat and protein contents were high among cereal starches than root and tuber crops especially for cassava (table 1). low associated compounds compositions in cassava starch shows the high purity displayed and the ease of extraction. cassava starch also characterizes by high amylose content which determine properties and uses of starch. in addition, high paste clarity observed for cassava makes it a better option for application in food and industry textile where high clarity is required. according to zhang et al. [62] high past clarity is easily achieved with chemical modification, but starches such as cassava, such modification procedures may not necessarily make it cheaper and better than most other starches. cassava starch extraction is also a simple process that makes it suitable for developing countries like ethiopia [63]. furthermore, the market for starch products may grow as the demand for environmentally friendly products such as biodegradable packaging material grows as the globe becomes more concerned about the environment. cassava is the most widely grown crop globally for producing a sustainable and affordable source of starch [64]. as a result, replacing non-biodegradable goods could be a big market in the world market, and cassava-producing countries could benefit from it. 3.3 ethanol production ethiopia is one of the fastest-growing nations in africa and aims to reach lower-middle-income status in the coming few years. maintaining the nation’s energy stability is essential for the country’s continuing development program [65]. ethiopia additionally spends $billion on imported petroleum products each year, accounting for 20% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings [66]. to address the issues and achieve energy sustainability, it is critical to expand the production and use of locally produced fuels such as bio-ethanol. bioethanol production in ethiopia is a realistic option; as well as supply expense and value will have a significant impact on its feasibility and competitiveness [65]. there are different potential crops for ethanol use in ethiopia; these include sugar cane, maize, jatropha, castor, cassava, cottonseed, and sweet sorghum. cassava has an advantage over other potential biofuel crops in that it requires less input and is more resistant to harsh environmental conditions. its roots are also less bulky than those of other biofuel crops like sugar cane and sorghum, making transportation cheaper [67]. cassava has also proven to be the most cost-effective bio-crop [68]. according to pérez et al. [69] findings production costs of fuel ethanol from cassava is lower than the sugar cane in colombia (table 2) and it is higher compared with other countries as thailand (0.18 usd/l. this disparity may be related to the market price of cassava in countries such as thailand, where productivity surpasses demand, allowing for a reduction in raw material prices while simultaneously decreasing the cost of fuel ethanol production. geremew et al. [65] reported that 34 percent of the country’s area land suitable for bioethanol crop cultivation. hence, it can reduce the energy security burden by cultivating different potential feedstock crops. table 1. comparison of physiochemical properties of starches from root, tuber and cereal crops crop mc (%) r.s.c (%) ash (%) protein (%) total amylose sp80 (oc) sol80 (oc) pc cassava 16.50 0.255 0.31 0.52 0.476 8.575 1.230 50.55 potato 13.67 0.200 0.26 1.82 0.355 8.440 0.770 42.16 sweet potato 9.331 0.581 0.28 1.13 0.417 6.88 0.577 22.75 maize 13.65 0.555 0.54 2.20 0.285 3.96 0.997 19.49 wheat 10.0 0.246 0.60 6.44 0.468 6.31 0.247 13.47 sorghum 9.20 0.563 0.63 4.14 0.306 5.25 0.803 21.90 millet 9.30 0.178 0.70 4.98 0.383 5.16 0.205 5.03 mc: moisture content; r.s.c.: reducing sugar content; sp: swelling power; sol: solubility; pc: paste clarity 9 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 4. the potential benefits of orphan crops 4.1 enset enset (ensete ventricosum) is a perennial herbaceous plant in the musaceae family, which also includes bananas and plantain. it is a versatile crop in which all portions are used for a variety of applications [70]. its production is mostly utilized for human food, animal feed, fiber, building materials, medicine, and cultural rituals. kocho, bulla, and amicho are the most common foods obtained from enset [71]. furthermore, because of its high demands on soil fertility and soil structure, enset agriculture enhances soil through persistent soil tillage. the crop is well-known for its drought tolerance, high production, gender equity, and environmental sustainability [70]. in ethiopia, e. ventricosum is perhaps the most significant crop, contributing to food security and rural livelihoods for around one-quarter (20 million people) [72]. according to research, “those who rely on enset have never suffered from hunger, even throughout ethiopia’s awful drought and famine-prone decades of the 1970s and 1980s” [73]. it is an indigenous food security plant that provides sustenance for over 15 million people in southern and central ethiopia [70]. it is a vital economic and socio-cultural significant crop for a large spectrum of smallholder families in the country’s population as a staple and co-staple food, and it is also utilized as traditional medicine. because of its tolerance to variable rainfall patterns after establishment, enset has been known to serve as a food shortfall barrier for humans and feed for animals during dry spells and recurring droughts. it possesses numerous essential food security characteristics. it thrives in a variety of settings, is drought-tolerant, and may be harvested at any time of year for several years. it is a significant source of dietary starch, textiles, pharmaceuticals, animal feed, roofing, and packaging. it has cultural significance and helps to stabilize soils and microclimates [74]. according to recent research, enset, an ethiopian plant related to the banana, has the potential to feed more than 100 million people in warmer climates if its production has extended [75]. 4.2 ethiopian potato (plectranthus edulis) plectranthus edulis (vatke) is an indigenous tuber crop distributed in ethiopia as cultivated and wild species. it is a tuber-bearing member of the labiatae family. it is a diploid, dicotyledonous plant that grows in the wild. it can be cultivated at mid to high altitudes in ethiopia’s south, north, and south-west. p. edulis is a high-energy food crop, and the tubers are rich in micro and macronutrients. in comparison to the irish potato (solanum tuberosum) [76]. it has more dietary energy and twice as much fat and calcium [77]. after cooking, it has roughly the same amount of protein as irish potato and nearly doubles the amount of protein as sweet potato (ipomoea batatas) [77]. the leaf is also prepared and consumed as a vegetable in some western regions of ethiopia, notably in the kaffa districts [78], and is used as a traditional medicine to treat a variety of diseases. furthermore, farmers value p. edulis and believe it fills hunger better than other tuber crops. they feel that this tuber is vital because it gives them energy and encourages them to have more children [79]. furthermore, table 2. fuel ethanol production cost from cassava and sugarcane bagasse case items cassava case sugarcane bagasse case usd/l share of total cost (%) usd/l share of total cost (%) raw materials 0.272 62.91 0.309 47.7 utilities 0.027 6.34 0.178 27.4 operating labor 0.008 1.80 0.008 1.2 maintenance 0.005 1.13 0.007 1.0 operating charge 0.002 0.45 0.002 0.3 plant overhead 0.006 1.46 0.007 1.1 general and administrative 0.026 5.93 0.041 6.3 depreciation of capital 0.086 19.99 0.097 15.0 production cost (total) 0.432 100.00 0.649 100.00 profit margin (%) 65.16 47.66 10 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 when wood is scarce, the dried stems of the crop are used as firewood. as a result, it may minimize the number of trees chopped down for firewood. despite this promise, relatively little study has been conducted to boost p. edulis output [80]. despite its importance in ensuring family food security, crop output has been dropping. some of the major causes that have contributed to the decline include the introduction of new species of root crops, recurring droughts, and land scarcity, research focus of the country that mainly targets cereals and commercial crops, a long maturity time paired with a short shelf life [79]. the decline in cultivation of the crop may result in erosion of the genetic base preventing the use of distinctive useful traits that are used for crop adaptation and improvement [81]. as a result, increasing agro-biodiversity to improve food and nutrition security is a critical component of long-term development. as a result, the government and policymakers should prioritize such a spectacular but underutilized crop to be exploited and used to alleviate food poverty. 4.3 anchote (coccinia abyssinica) anchote (coccinia abyssinica) (lam.) cogn.] is a tuber crop in the cucurbitaceae family. the genus coccinia has around 30 species, 10 of which are found in ethiopia; however, only coccinia abyssinica is cultivated for human consumption [83]. despite being a key traditional food crop in the region, it is unknown in the rest of the globe. anchote grows at elevations ranging from 1300 to 2800 meters above sea level, with annual rainfall ranging from 762 to 1016 mm. anchote is widely grown in ethiopia, particularly in the country’s western and southwestern regions. its tubers are rich in macro-and micronutrients (for example, ca = 7.78 mg, fe = 5.23 mg, and zn = 2.05 mg/100 g tuber). anchote tubers and leaves have long been used in traditional medicine to treat a variety of diseases. it has a high concentration of nutrients such as crude fiber, protein, calcium, iron, zinc, and magnesium, which are uncommon in tuber crops. local farmers claim that it aids in the rapid healing of fractured bones and misplaced joints. anchote eating may also minimize the problem of vitamin a deficiency because of its high vitamin a content. traditionally, breastfeeding moms are thought to be healthier and stronger when given anchote. the flour is also used as a supplement for newborns and young children. in addition, anchote tuber juice contains saponin, which is used to treat gonorrhea, tuberculosis, and malignancies [84]. girma and dereje reported that anchote could be cultivated with minimal inputs and provide an acceptable yield under poor soil fertility, acidic soil, and drought conditions. the crop can be planted as a backup crop in case of crop failure. although the crop has considerable value in achieving food security due to its drought resilience and capacity to stay in the soil for a longer period, there is insufficient agronomic knowledge. despite its long history of cultivation and use, anchote has not been subjected to systematic study to comprehend the genetic architecture and manipulate it in an improvement program. because of the lack of attention paid to anchote research and development, no variety has been produced or marketed thus far [85]. although it has received little attention, genetic diversity in anchote may lead to the identification of new genes for combating agricultural production challenges. anchote is suited to a variety of climates and provides a nutritious food supply if other crops fail. anchote is a promising perspective crop for achieving household food security due to its varied feature. 5. conclusions the world’s population is anticipated to reach 9.8 billion by 2050. however, the circumstances do not favor completing such a task. climate change, population growth, a scarcity of farmland, and conflicts were the primary impediments to achieving food security. chronic and transitory food insecurity has afflicted a considerable proportion of ethiopia’s population. the number of persons who are chronically food insecure is significant. ethiopia’s food security status had related to severe, repeated food shortages and famine, which have a direct relation to persistent drought. currently, more than 17% of the overall population, the vast majority of whom live in rural regions, requires food assistance. as a result, farmers would have better necessity accessibility to other crops that use new, environmentally sustainable technology to ensure food security and environmental sustainability. despite this, the current agricultural policies mainly focus on national or regionally significant crops without consideration for indigenous crop production. however, this does not seem realistic, especially for subsistence farmers in developing countries like ethiopia, who prefer to increase their options by diversifying their small plots of land rather than homogenizing them with high external inputs and varieties. one opportunity to support food security is by employing crop diversification with greater inclusion of orphan crops. these crops could be utilized as a drought reserve crop since they give high productivity even in conditions that are generally considered unfavorable for other crops. these merits are paramount to meet food and nutrition security in these challenging climate change times. as a result, significant institutional and operational 11 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 reforms are necessary to improve the constraints and utilization of underutilized indigenous crops in ethiopia. availability of data and material not applicable. author contributions the corresponding author conceived of the paper, gathered the appropriate literature review articles, and wrote the first draft of the manuscript. finally, the author read and approved the final manuscript. conflict of interest there is no conflict of interest associated with this publication. references [1] fao, 2019. the national gender 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[69] pérez, y.c., serna, d.l.r., alzate, c.a.c., 2015. comparison of cassava and sugarcane bagasse for fuel ethanol production. handbook on cassava. 1. [70] yemataw, z., mohamed, h., diro, m., et al., 2014. enset (ensete ventricosum) clone selection by farmers and their cultural practices in southern ethiopia. genetic resources and crop evolution. 61(6), 10911104. [71] ayele, a., sahu, o., 2014. extension of enset plant product for rural development in ethiopia. journal of agriculture economics extension and rural development. 2(3), 31-40. [72] olango, t.m., tesfaye, b., catellani, m., et al., 2014. indigenous knowledge, use and on-farm management of enset (ensete ventricosum (welw.) cheesman) diversity in wolaita, southern ethiopia. journal of ethnobiology and ethnomedicine. 10(1), 1-18. [73] macentee, k.k., thompson, j., fikreyesus, s., 2013. enset is a good thing. ethiopian journal of applied science and technology. (1), 103-109. [74] borrell, j.s., biswas, m.k., goodwin, m., et al., 2019. enset in ethiopia: a poorly characterized but resilient starch staple. annals of botany. 123(5), 747766. [75] koch, o., mengesha, w.a., pironon, s., et al., 2021. modelling potential range expansion of an underutilised food security crop in sub-saharan africa. environmental research letters. 17(1), 014022. [76] mekbib, y., 2007. phenotypic variation and local customary use of ethiopian potato (plectranthus edulis (vatke) agnew). cbm master theses series. 40. [77] ehnri, 1997. food composition table for use in ethiopia. ethiopian health and nutrition research institute, addis ababa, ethiopia. [78] asfaw, z., woldu, z., 1997. crop associations of home gardens in welayta and gurage in southern ethiopia. sinet: ethiopian journal of science. 20(1), 73-90. [79] ababora, m.t., 2008. studies on agronomy and crop https://doi.org/10.1016/j.carbpol.2010.07.049 14 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 02 | june 2022 physiology of plectranthus edulis (vatke) agnew. wageningen university and research. [80] ibc, 2005. national biodiversity strategy and action plan. addis ababa. [81] ibc, 2007. second country report on the state of plant genetic resources for food and agriculture to fao. addis ababa. [82] gulla, a., getachew, a., haile, t.g., et al., 2020. evaluation of acid-modified ethiopian potato (plectranthus edulis) starch as directly compressible tablet excipient. biomed research international. [83] bekele, e., 2007. study on actual situation of medicinal plants in ethiopia. addis ababa: prepared for japan association for international collaboration of agriculture and forestry. [84] fufa, h., urga, k., 1997. nutritional and anti-nutritional characterestics of anchote (coccinia abyssinica). ethiopian journal of health development. 11(2), 163-168. [85] duresso, m.e., 2018. study on ethnobotany and phenotypic diversity in anchote (coccinia abyssinica (lam.) cogn.] landraces in western ethiopia. international journal of agricultural sciences. 8, 1404-1427. 10 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.773 copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). received: 16 november 2022; received in revised form: 10 january 2023; accepted: 30 january 2023; published: 16 february 2023 citation: getaneh, d., 2023. assessment of dairy production system, handling, processing and utilization practices in south ari and malle district of south omo zone, ethiopia. research on world agricultural economy. 4(1), 773. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.773 *corresponding author: demerew getaneh, southern agricultural research institute, jinka agricultural research center, p.o. box 96 jinka, ethiopia; email: getademe12@gmail.com research article assessment of dairy production system, handling, processing and utilization practices in south ari and malle district of south omo zone, ethiopia demerew getaneh* southern agricultural research institute, jinka agricultural research center, p.o. box 96 jinka, ethiopia abstract: milk is produced, processed and utilized in different parts of ethiopia and the majority in rural areas is processed at the household level into milk products using traditional technologies and marketed through informal channels. this study was initiated to assess and describe the traditional knowledge of milk production, handling, processing and utilization practices in south ari and malle district. three dairy potential kebeles from each district were selected via a purposive sampling procedure. then, 196 households were selected through a systematic random sampling procedure. data were collected using a semi-structure questionnaire and analyzed by spss (version 23) software. there was a significant difference (p < 0.05) in livestock composition across the study districts. about 75% in south ari and 72.9% in malle have their own grazing land. feed shortage (73%) and improved breed access (26%) in south ari, and feed shortage (52.1%), drought (44.8%) in malle were among the main constraints affecting dairying. about 65% of south ari used plastic buckets for milking and clay pots for fermentation and churning. in malle 88.5% used calabash containers for milking, accumulation and churning. the average days of raw milk fermentation before churning in south ari and malle were 4.2 ± 0.1 and 2.9 ± 0.0 days. the average butter-making time was 63.4 ± 1.8 minutes in both districts. the amount of milk fermented and butter produced from this fermented milk is significantly different (p < 0.05) across districts. nearly 95% of south ari milk is traditionally processed into yogurt, butter, buttermilk and cheese; and used for home consumption and marketing. however, in malle 72.9% of yogurt and buttermilk processing is used for home consumption; and 26% of butter processing is only used for marketing. it is possibly concluded that dairy production was commonly practiced and it was a good source of income in both districts. therefore, it is vigorous to support the dairy linkage with extension services by enhancing the input provision. keywords: milk production; handling; processing; south omo; utilization practices http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.773 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.773 mailto:getademe12@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8574-3433 11 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 1. introduction agriculture is the lifeblood and the main economic backbone of ethiopia and livestock is an essential share of the agricultural sector [1]. ethiopia has the huge livestock population in africa and the estimated livestock population in ethiopia were 70 million head of cattle, 42.9 million sheep, 52.5 million goats, 2.15 million horses, 10.80 million donkeys, 0.38 million mules and about 8.1 million camels [2]. livestock husbandry in ethiopia is an essential and integral sector of agriculture and rural livelihood contributing about 17%-25.3% of the national gross domestic product (gdp) and 39%-49% of agricultural gdp and over 50% of household income [3], 12%-15% of the export earnings and 60%-70% provide for employment [4]. the livestock in ethiopia is amended to different agroecologies of the highlands (mixed livestock farming system) to the lowlands (extensive nomadic farming system) [5]. despite the current immense potential for the dairy sector due to vast livestock resources and promising environmental conditions, the potential of the dairy industry in ethiopia has not been boosted [6]. now a day, the dairy sector has persisted constrained by multi-faceted production and reproduction-related constraints among which feed sources and feeding systems, poor genetic potential, poor health follow-up, poor access to services and inputs, low adoption and limited access to improved technologies, marketing and other factors are listed [7]. currently, ethiopia has a deficiency of dairy products and due to this imports these products from other countries [8]. furthermore, to increase dairy production from each animal, it is better to increase the productivity of these animals in terms of improved management practice because the current milk production per cow is relatively low even with fairly some potential for improvement. this low production potential of milk needs to further improve the productivity of dairy cattle through improving animal health, particularly udder and reproductive health [9]. in ethiopia, the huge majority of milk produced and processed in rural areas is at the home level into milk products such as yogurt, butter, ghee, and cheese using old-style technologies and marketed through informal channels [10]. diversified fermented milk products are made and consumed in many parts of the country. as it is known that milk is exceedingly perishable by nature, consequently it requires emphasizing care starting from production up to consumption particularly in handling during milking, collection and succeeding storage and transportation. in the fact that, milk is fairly perishable and a high percentage of it is consumed in a relatively natural state due to this, milk and its products handling to preserve its natural characteristics are very vital [11]. the less perishability of milk products, the longer the smallholders can preserve it to gain a good price and the surplus—made during the milk production season can be also stored for consumption during the season of the products in short supply. in different parts of the country the milk producers add different spices to butter as a preservative way to enhance its natural flavor for cooking [11]. storage stability problems of dairy products are intensified by ambient temperatures and distances that producers have to travel to bring the products to market places making it necessary for smallholders to seek products with a better shelf life. the first step that the product handlers can take to ensure a high-quality product is to make assured that the production and industrialized process are should be hygienic [11]. the southern nation is the highest and second region in milk production potential next to oromia region in ethiopia [12]. though the kinds of materials utilized for milking, storage and processing differ from place to place, about 50% of milk producers used traditional clay pots for churning milk, about 25% used plastic vessels, 6.3% aluminum cans and 18.3% used calabash in the southern part of ethiopia [13]. additionally, a clay pot or calabash is used as a churner to make butter in the gurage zone [14] and also the clay pot is used for churning milk (100%) in west shewa zone, oromia region [15]. therefore, the aim of this study was to assess and describe the traditional knowledge of milk production, handling, processing and utilization practices in south ari and malle district. 2. materials and methods 2.1 study areas the study was conducted in milk-producing potential areas in and around south ari and malle district (table 1). table 1. study areas. parameters districts south ari malle areas 1520 km2 1432 km2 altitude 850-2800 m above sea level 600-1500 m above sea level mean annual rainfall 100-1600 mm 800-1200 mm temperature 15 and 35°c 18-35°c sources: demerew, g. [5]. 2.2 sampling procedure and data collection a rapid pre-study survey was conducted at the zone level with the help of agricultural development offices 12 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 to identify milk producers who reared dairy cattle and milk production potential areas in both district’s agroecological zones; for this current study south ari and malle district were purposively selected depend on the potential of milk production and from the total kebeles in the two districts in the first phase potential sites (kebeles) in milk production was purposely selected with the assistance of the office of agriculture information. in the second phase, from the potential kebeles six kebeles were selected randomly each three kebeles from a district. in the third phase, the numbers of sampled households from each sampled site were determined from the lists of these households by using proportional to the size. hence, the relative homogeneity of households based on their socioeconomic features and living style sample was drawn through a simple random sampling technique from each selected kebele. accordingly, a total of 196 households (100 households from south ari and 96 households from malle) representing the two districts and who had at least one dairy cow and were interested to participate in the study were selected through a systematic random sampling procedure and individually interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. the questionnaire was designed based on how to get information related to milk production and its utilization which includes milk product types, methods of handling, processing and marketing. furthermore, to validate the survey information a semi-structured questionnaire was prepared and information on their status was collected from key informants or producers who were found within the two districts. primary and secondary data were used for the analysis. different age and gender groups such as elders, youth and women were involved in the study. 2.3 sample size determination the basic factors to be considered to determine the appropriate sample size are the level of precision required by users, the confidence level desired and the degree of variability. it is determined by using a simplified formula provided by kothari [16]. n =  2 2 −1 +2 where, n is the sample size for a finite population; n is the size of the population which was the number of households in the districts; p: population reliability (or frequency estimated for a sample of size n); p was 0.5 which was taken for all developing countries population and p + q= 1. e: margin of error considered was 7%. zα/2: normal reduced variable at 0.05 level of significance and z 1.96. the sampling unit in this study was households and the sampling frame was all the six kebeles household lists that were available in the kebeles. therefore, based on the above formula the number of households to be sampled was determined. 2.4 statistical analysis the data collected were coded and analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively using spss version 23.0 (ibm, usa) software for all the statistical analyses to compute descriptive statistics for the variables. descriptive statistics, like means, percentages and standard error of the means were used to present the results. the chi-square (χ2) test was used to compare proportions of categorical variables among the districts. a t-test was used to compare means. the differences were considered significant at p < 0.05. 3. results and discussion 3.1 livestock composition the study indicated that there was a statistical difference (p < 0.05) in livestock composition across study districts (table 2). the numbers of goats, cattle, sheep and chickens were higher in (p < 0.05) the malle district. there was no significant difference in the numbers of cross-breed cattle reared between the two studied districts. the current results for the number of goats and sheep were higher than ayeneshet [17] who reported 6.66 and 5.59 goats and sheep, respectively in north gondar zone. the cattle holdings in the malle district are higher than those reported by girma [18]. this indicates that following goat, cattle holding per household are the second highest proportion in the malle district. the high numbers of cattle followed by goats, particularly in the lowlands may be due to the local culture and cattle are considered sources of wealth and social pride, often given off as dowry; these show cattle play various roles in the livelihood of their keepers [5]. table 2. livestock species (mean ± se). livestock species districts south ari malle overall cattle (local) 5.8 ± 0.3b 12.2 ± 0.9a 9.0 ± 0.5 cattle (cross) 3.6 ± 0.3 2.5 ± 0.3 3.4 ± 0.2 goats 1.7 ± 0.4b 13.6 ± 1.7a 11.2 ± 1.4 sheep 3.7 ± 0.3b 5.5 ± 0.9a 4.4 ± 0.4 chicken (local) 3.7 ± 0.3b 5.5 ± 0.9a 4.4 ± 0.4 chicken (cross) 6.5 ± 0.5 6.6 ± 0.6 6.5 ± 0.3 n = number of respondents; se = standard error; a;b = values with different superscripts in a row differ significantly p < 0.05. 13 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 3.2 feed source and feeding practices feed resources and feeding practices in the studied areas are presented in table 3. the accessibility of feed resources in the study districts depends on the seasons. as respondents revealed, crop residues and natural pasture are the major sources of feed in the study areas with 55% and 53.1% for south ari and malle district, respectively. however, most of the research studies reported that natural pastures are dominant as a source of animal feed [19-21]. it has been also reported that the pasture quality has been declining over time. this can be ascribed to bush encroachments, overgrazing and other many anthropogenic factors. the majority in south ari (75%) and malle (72.9%) districts have grazing land for their livestock. this result was similar to the report of csa [2] which reported grazing is the major type of feed (54.54%) followed by crop residue which is 31.13%. nearest to the current result, in the central highlands of ethiopia, the dominant sources of dairy cattle feed resources were crop residues, hay, communal pasture, private pasture, concentrates and improved forage [22,23]. about 61% of south ari district private grazing holders and about 39.6% of malle district communal grazing landholders were observed as the main sources of green fodder. the current result is also comparable with the result of ayeneshet [17] in the alefa district north gondar zone. free grazing is reported to predominate in the malle district (63.5%). overstocking livestock in one place may excessively lead to overgrazing and there may be fights among the bulls, particularly during the mating (breeding) season. however, keeping cattle together has numerous merits as it requires less labor, it provides safety to the cows and their calves. demerew et al. [5] reported that feeding cattle through rotational grazing is better than continuous grazing to improve natural grazing pastures in terms of quantity and quality. on the other hand, the zero-grazing feeding technique will also increase productivity compared to rotational grazing [17]. 3.3 major problems related to dairy cattle production 3.3.1 seasonal feed shortage and supplementary practice seasonal feed shortage is a common phenomenon in south ari (97%) and malle (94.8%) districts, respectively table 4. the main season of feed shortage in south ari (82%) and malle (96.9%) districts was during prolonged seasonal fluctuation. during the short rainy season in both districts frequent feed shortages are common particularly in malle the duration of the rainy season shortens and the drought is persistent. the common seasons of feed shortage in south ari district were starting from the beginning of december to the end of february. in malle district feed shortage starts from the middle of december to the end of april. the majority of the respondent in south ari (92%) district practiced supply of supplementary feed to their dairy cow and while in malle district only 33.33% were having experience giving supplementary feed. the rest 66.7% of respondents in this area have not practiced table 3. feed resources and feeding practices (%). activities districts south ari malle overall x2 have you grazing land for your animals? 0.44 yes 75 72.9 74 no 25 27.1 26 what type of grazing land do you use? 0.04* communal 27 39.6 33.2 private 61 37.5 49.5 what is feed sources for your animals? 0.09 natural pasture 33 39.6 36.3 crop residues 12 73 48.5 both (natural pasture & crop residues) 55 53.1 81.5 grazing/feeding methods animals? 0.00** stall feeding 3 0 1.5 zero grazing (cut and carry system) 4 0 2 open grazing (herding) 13 63.5 38.2 tethering 80 36.5 58.2 the values observed between the two districts were significantly different at * (x2 < 0.05);** (x2 < 0.01); x2 = pearson chi-square. 14 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 any supplementation. the reason for this is that the area is infected by prolonged drought and most of the time the animal used free grazing due to a shortage of fodder. in south ari district 61.9% of forage that is frequently used as subsidized feeds was a mixture of arkinti and girawa (figure 2a), white banana leaf or gumiza (local name) (figure 1b), arkinti (local name) (figure 1c), girawa (figure 1d), coffee leaf and crop residues. particularly, the white banana variety is better in terms of resistance to drought, so it is fodder for cattle. the remaining supplementary feeds were improved forage (21.6%), gruel (muk) with salt (15.4%) and atela (1.1%) whereas in malle district 47.5% of respondents supplemented their dairy cow banana leaf (white) or gumiza (local name), crop by product and coffee leaf (in some instance). in malle atela (37.5%), improved forage (12.5%) and gruel (muk) with salt (2.5%) were used as supplementary feeds for the dairy cow during the dry season. according to respondents, arkinti (grass type) and girawa (leaf) by mixing together and boiled or mixed with boiling/steaming water and salt are added to it to increase milk yield when given to dairy cattle. the reason why it is boiled in boiling water is to reduce the bitterness of the milk from girawa. the respondents assumed that, when the animals eat girawa leaves it makes their blood bitter so that the flies and insects do not land on them and protected themselves. because girawa has a bitter effect on milk, it is given to dairy cattle in small amounts or by mixing with arkinti (grass type). 3.3.2 constraints related to dairy cattle production according to sintayehu et al. [24] constraints and problems related to dairy production differ from one production system to another and from location to location. the current findings revealed that grazing land/feed shortage (73%) and limited access to improved breed (26%) are the major constraints limiting dairy cattle production in south ari whereas feeding/grazing land shortage (52.1%) and prolonged drought and seasonal fluctuation (44.8%) are the main factors contributing for low production in dairying table 4. a parallel result was noticed by tsedey and bereket [13] who reported that feed shortage (71%), low milk yield (69%) and unavailability of improved breed (68%) are listed as the main dairy production constraint in dilla and hawassa districts of southern ethiopia. the study of jiregna et al. [25] reported that feed shortage in addition to diseases and poor genetic makeup of indigenous animals are also the main cause for lower production in western oromia. similarly, minale and yilkal [26] in chencha and kucha districts stated that feed shortage for dairy cattle was the central problem. 3.4 type of milk storage and processing materials the respondents across the two districts used different milking equipment for storage, milking and churning (table 5). among the interviewed respondents 65% and 88.5% used clay pot (figure 2a) and calabash (figure 2b) containers for milk storage/fermentation before processing in south ari and malle district, respectively. a comparable result to the current study by shewangizaw and addisu [27] was reported who used clay pots and a plastic bucket for milk storage and fermentation in wolayita sodo. another report by minale and yilkal [26] showed the majority of about 92.5% and 97% of the milk producers in chencha and kucha districts used clay pots for milk storage, respectively. this result disagrees with different findings in the country [28,29,6] they reported that about 80%100% were mostly used plastic containers. this result was also in contrast with befekadu et al. [30] who reported all of the respondents reported to used equipment made from animal skin for milking in borena zone. the finding by pandey and voskuil [31] reported the use of plastic vessels can be a potential source for milk contamination because it is difficult to remove all residual milk from such milk storages due to its soft nature, thus increasing the microbial load of milk. the majority of respondents in south ari district used clay pots (82%) and plastic baths (16%) for churning/ processing milk. this finding was parallel to tsedey and a b c d figure 1. mixture of arkinti and girawa (a), arkinti (c), banan leaf (gumiza) (b), girawa leaf (d). 15 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 bereket [13] who reported that about 50% of dairy producers used clay pots for churning and 25% plastic vessels in southern ethiopia. the other reports showed that clay pot or calabash is used as a milk churner to make butter in the gurage zone [14]. in south ari, the plastic pitcher was used for milking and the plastic bucket was used for storage and transportation of milk sales. in the malle district almost all respondents (100%) used calabash for milk churning/processing and clay and plastic containers are not commonly used this result is comparable with sisay [32]. a comparable report was noticed by onyango et al. [33] who reported the dried calabash, used as fermentation gourd. this result goes against the findings of fao [15] who reported that the clay pot was used for milk churning and fermented milk (100%) in west shewa zone, oromia region. the present result was also consistent with the reports of tigist [34] she observed jerrycan, calabash (qill) and mazzican were the materials used for milking and milk handling. a significant number (95%) of the respondents in south ari district processed different milk products and used them for home consumption and marketing (yogurt, butter, buttermilk, cheese, and whey). similar findings reported by abraha [35] find that in the southern highlands of tigray raya, 93.6% fresh milk, yogurt, buttermilk, butter, whey and cheese were among the common dairy products. whereas in the malle district, 72.9% of respondents processed only yogurt, butter, and buttermilk and the remaining 26% processed only butter for marketing. in malle culture, dairy products such as butter, buttermilk, and yogurt (rarely) are used for home consumption while, cheese, whey and fresh milk are not commonly used or consumed at home; the study was able to notice that no dairy product is sold in the market except butter in malle due to cultural restriction. according to the malle community perception selling raw milk and cheese is considered as shame and they believe that selling these products reduces fertility, brings drought and is a manifestation of poverty. a b figure 2. the two major churning materials clay pot (a) and calabash (b). table 4. major problems related to dairy cattle production (%). activities districts south ari malle overall x2 is there seasonal feed shortage? 0.33 yes 97 94.8 95.9 no 3 5.2 4.1 season of feed shortage 0.01** dry season 82 96.9 89.3 rainy season 18 3.1 10.7 do you supply supplementary feed to your cows? 0.00** yes 92 33.3 63.3 no 8 66.7 36.7 what are the feeds you supplemented? 0.00** white banana leaf & coffee leaf, crop by product, arkinti and girawa 61.9 47.5 54.7 gruel (muk) with salt 15.4 2.5 8.9 improved forage 21.6 12.5 17.0 atela 1.1 37.5 19.3 what are the major problems related to milk production? feed or grazing land shortage 73 52.1 62.8 prolong drought and seasonal fluctuation 1 44.8 22.4 diseases 0 3.1 1.5 access to improved breed 26 0 13.3 the value observed between the two districts significantly different at* (x2 < 0.05);** (x2 < 0.01); x2 = pearson chi-square. 16 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 milk processing reason different from district to district even from place to place (table 4). in south ari 79% of respondents practice milk processing reason to increase household income via sales of processed products, 10% of respondents processed milk to have a variety of products, 9% of respondents assume that processed milk gives better income than fresh milk sales, the rest 2% processed milk for home consumption. the milk processing reason for this finding is comparable with the result of befekadu et al. [30] that 72.73% of respondents in borena zone processed the milk to diversify the products and for income generation. the result is also similar to ayantu [36] who reported that milk is processed to increase the household’s income, to diversify the product type for home consumption and to increase the shelf-life of the dairy products in delbo water shed wolayta zone. in malle district, 62.5%, 28.1% and 9.4% of respondents’ milk processing reason to have a variety of products, to increase household income via sales of processed products and processed milk give better income than fresh milk sales, respectively. this result agreed with abraha [35] who reported that reason for processing milk is to diversify the products. unless the milk producers could not produce a diversity of milk products, they could not acquire the expected value-added milk products. 3.5 milk processing and utilization practices the system of milk production, milk processing and utilization varies according to the tribes and culture of the region. this makes the indigenous knowledge of milk production, milk processing and utilization practice peculiar to the specific area [37,30]. cows are the foremost source of milk and which is the focus for processing many products in ethiopia [38]. in the study districts, milk production and processing are carried out most often in the family households, and all operations in milk processing are done manually. processing milk into varying products is an important measurement for the preservation of the product as a source of income and nutrients for consumption. abebe et al. [38] stated that, milk is traditionally preserved into different products like butter, ghee and cheese. meanwhile, preserved milk and its products are more stable than raw milk due to they are more acidic and comprise moisture. befekadu et al. [30] indicated that milk that is naturally fermented is the base for processing the milk into more shelfstable and, consumer preferences for fermented dairy products. according to ethiopian culture, the common milk products that are produced in these study districts are raw whole milk, yogurt (ergo), butter (kibe), buttermilk (arera), cheese (ayib) and whey (aguat). traditional fermented milk products observed in this study were similar to tsedey, a.[13] , befekadu, t.[30], kefyalew, g.[39]. milk processing and utilization of these products varied in different parts of the country; from one area to another area and from household to household based on experience, table 5. type of milking container, processing and storage materials in the study districts (%). activities districts south ari malle overall x2 what are milk storage materials before processing? 0.00** clay pot 65 7.3 36.7 metallic containers 30 0 15.3 plastic materials or improved churner 5 4.2 4.6 calabash 0 88.5 43.4 which milk product you processed? 0.00** yogurt 2 0 1 cheese 1 0 0.5 butter 2 26 14 yogurt, butter, butter milk 0 72.9 36.45 yogurt, butter, butter milk, cheese, whey 95 1 48.05 what is your reason to process milk? 0.00** to increase household income via sales of processed product 79 28.1 53.55 preference for home consumption 2 0 1 processed milk gives better income than fresh milk sales 9 9.4 9.2 to have variety of product 10 62.5 36.25 what kind of milk churning materials you used? 0.00** clay pot 82 0 41.8 calabash 2 100 50 plastic bath 16 0 8.2 the value observed between the two districts significantly different at* (x2 < 0.05); ** (x2 < 0.01); x2 = pearson chi-square. 17 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 purpose, cultural reason and preference. milk processing is typically deliberated to eliminate water from milk and/ or minimize the moisture content of the products [38]. raw milk (whole milk): this is milk that is milked or collected directly from the cow before being coagulated. in the study areas, especially in south ari district raw milk was used as a source of income by selling it to city dwellers of milk suppliers. others earn income by renting milk to their neighbors. in south ari, raw milk is used as a supplement for children and orphaned pets (calf, kid and lamb). raw milk is collected and comes from early morning before 8 a.m. or early evening after 6 p.m. yogurt (ergo): the milk that is milked from the cow turns thick (naturally fermented) after a period of hours and days through the bacterial process (figure 3). according to desalegn [40] yogurt is the most common traditionally prepared fermented milk product in ethiopia and yogurt is prepared through the natural fermentation of milk under the ambient temperature without the addition of appetizer cultures using traditional vessels under non-hygienic. yogurt is nutritious, and palatable and it comprises all the milk components in a concentrated form. in the study areas, when the farmer is tired after work it gives great strength and it can be also used as a stable food for injured persons and children. in many ethiopian parts, culturally yogurt is an important part of the traditional diet and is considered a big invitation when a distinguished or special guest received it at a home. it is further processed into more stable fermented milk products. according to respondents, preparing yogurt for home consumption can take two to three consecutive days, but it should be kept for three to six consecutive days to prepare other milk products like cheese and butter. the present result was equivalent to the result of befekadu et al. [30] who reported 96% of the respondents described that the yogurt fermentation time for immediate usage is three days and the rest for long-term preparation takes six days. there is no sure length for the fermentation it is the visual appreciation of the gel that determined the finish of the processing [41]. the variation of fermentation time to prepare yogurt depends on the local environmental condition, on its purpose whether it is for home consumption or for the production of other products and hygiene of milking or storage equipment. in warmer climates, milk will curdle faster and in colder climates, it may take longer time to be curdled. if it is used for home consumption it needs a short day but, if it is to get other products it will be kept for a day. on the other hand, if milk storage is regularly cleaned and smoked it helps the milk to ferment quickly. to increase the taste of the yogurt and to improve its palatability the practice of adding local leaves called tena adam has been seen in many study areas. butter (kibe): this is the result of the churning of fermented milk after days of raw milk accumulation. the fresh milk that is milked every day is added to the previously curdle milk until the required amount is accumulated. butter can be extracted by hand pushing or rotating the churn on its base from 30 to 64 minutes. as respondents stated, the milk churning time to make butter would be determined by different factors such as the amount of milk, type and size of churner, cleanliness of churner, breed of cow and temperature of the local environment. the churning equipment used to churn the curd to make butter varies from place to place. after churning is completed, the butter grains are collected together by hand finally they wash the butter with cold water. the reason why it is washed with water is so that the butter become hardens and thickens. the other reason for adding water to the butter is if want it to last for a long time, particularly during fasting. this result was consistent with the reports of befekadu et al. [30]. apart from being a source of income and its nutritional value, butter has many functions in the a b figure 3. locally fermented yogurt ready for agitation in south ari and malle district. 18 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 rural community. among its benefits, it is used for cooking food in the form of ghee (adding it to the stew), hair lubrication/cosmetics (hair cream) and remedy for headaches. ghee is a very popular dairy product for making traditional chicken stew (ethiopian doro wot) in ethiopia, particularly during new year and other festivals. ghee is the butter-fat prepared chiefly from butter. as observed in the study areas, before processing butter different spices are added to improve its flavor and to add market or consumer attractive appearance of yellowish color. buttermilk (arera): this is made after the butter is removed or separated from churned milk. it is a slightly thick milk product that remains after butter making. it is used in different forms for home consumption either directly or processed in to other cooked products (cheese and whey). most of its characteristics and tasty are alike to those of ergo. according to abebe et al. [38], arera contains 91.5% moisture, 3.1% protein, 1.4% fat, 3.4% carbohydrate, and 0.6% ash. in both districts, it was possible to see that it is the most preferred milk-type product in both districts. it is often used as the main food in the home with a large family and it is often eaten with fosesi (locally favorite food). on the other hand, in south ari district cheese is sold, instead of using it as it is they convert it into cheese and use the cheese for market and domestic consumption. zelalem and inger [42] stated that buttermilk is directly consumed within the family or is changed to cheese (ayib). cheese (ayib): this is prepared by boiling or heating the remaining buttermilk after the butter is separated. the buttermilk is cooked or heated on a clay pot and kept for a few minutes, in order for the quality of the cheese to be good the heating fire should be moderate and not too much. for the making of this traditional ethiopian cheese (ayib), buttermilk is heated by a clay pot on a low fire to about 50 °c [43]. as stated by fao [44], an average of 8 liters of arera are required to yield one kilogram of ayib and which having on an average of 20.42% total solid, 2.25% fat and 1.23% ash and an average moisture percentage being 79.58%. in south ari, cheese is highly sought by consumers during the festivity season, so it is sold and used as an income source for the family just like butter. according to the culture of malle community selling cheese is considered shameful, so the community does not have a culture of selling or buying cheese this cheese is not prepared by the community nor is it sold to the market. some respondents have experience in adding spices to give the cheese a desirable aroma and extend its shelf life. this is applied after the cheese was drained sufficiently. the spices mainly used were ruta chalepensis (tena adam), zingiber officinalis (zigibl) and turmeric (erd). whey (aguat): this is the final by-product of milk that remains after the cheese has been removed from the heated buttermilk. it is the liquid form that leftovers after most of the fat and the protein in the milk are detached during the cheese making [43]. in south ari whey have many functions which are used as food for humans and supplementation to animals such as milking cow, and calves and plowing ox by mixing with other feedstuff. as stated by abebe et al. [38], it holds important nutrients such as proteins, minerals and carbohydrates. 3.6 butter making practices butter-making and manipulation practices are presented in table 6. in south ari district 68% and 32% of the respondents processed and make butter from indigenous and cross-breed cattle, respectively. in malle district, 91.7% and 8.3% of households processed and make butter from indigenous and cross-breed cattle respectively. the average days of raw milk fermentation before churning in south ari and malle district were 4.2 ± 0.1 and 2.9 ± 0.0 days, respectively. approximate this result was reported by [37,6] milk deposited to produce fermented milk for three and five days in mekelle milk shed, northern ethiopia and borana plateau, respectively. the average butter-making time from starting to finishing up was 1.05 hours (63.4 ± 1.8 minutes) in both districts. the average churning time in the current study is lower than the result of befekadu et al. [30] in borena plateau of ethiopia which indicated 1.2 hours (72 minutes). in south ari district 76%, 22%, and 2% of the respondents make butter in the evening, afternoon and morning, respectively (figure 4a). in the mid and highland areas of the country, it is common to churn milk in the evening which is used to participate all the family members in churning when get together after work. on the other hand, in malle district, almost all (99%) of respondents make butter in the morning (figure 4b) and only 1% in the evening. it is not possible to churn milk and make butter during the daytime in the lowland areas because butter becomes melts. because the environment is warm enough in the daytime to churn in the evening the heat of the day does not dissipate, so the butter melts or mixes with milk butter. the amount of milk fermented and butter produced from this fermented milk is a significant difference (p < 0.05) across districts. this variation may be due to feeding availability and other management practice between the districts. from indigenous cows, the average amount of milk churned in one session (liter) and the average amount of butter produced from all this fermented milk (kg) was 7.3 ± 0.3l liters and 0.6 ± 0.0 kg butter in south ari district. the amount of milk fermented for one churn 19 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 in this study was lower than the result of befekadu et al. [30] who reported the average volume of milk processed at each processing time is 7.82 liters in borena zone. on the other hand, from the cross cow, the churned milk amount and butter produced from this fermented milk in this district were 6.9 ± 0.5 liters and 0.7 ± 0.0 kg butter. in malle district, the result showed that, the average amount of milk churned in one session (liter) and the average amount of butter produced from all this fermented milk (kg) from indigenous and cross cows were 5.7 ± 0.1 liters; 4.6 ± 0.1 liters and 0.4 ± 0.0kg and 0.4 ± 0.0 kg milk and butter, respectively. this milk amount difference may be the feeding behavior and feed conversion efficiency of the two breeds. on the other hand, it is an area where frequent drought occurred, due to this it may not suitable for hybrid cattle. the purpose of the processing of butter across the two districts was a statistical difference difference (x2 < 0.05). in south ari district, most (75%) of butter is used for sale and some for consumption; most (20%) butter is used for consumption and some for sale; 3% used all butter for home consumption and 2% used butter for the purpose of sale only. on the other hand, in malle district, a b figure 4. butter preparation practice in south ari and malle district. table 6. amount of fermented milk churned and amount butter from this fermented milk at a time (%). activities districts south ari malle overall x2 which cow breed do you use to process butter? 0.00** indigenous 68 91.7 79.6 cross 32 8.3 20.4 at what time do you make butter? 0.00** morning 2 99 49.5 afternoon 22 0 11.2 evening 76 1 39.3 butter making or churning time (minute) 62.9 ± 2.3 64.2 ± 2.7 63.4 ± 1.8 raw milk accumulation (day) 4.2 ± 0.1a 2.9 ± 0.0b 3.6 ± 0.0 milk amount churned and butter product from local cow amount of milk churned in one session (liter) 7.3 ± 0.3a 5.7 ± 0.1b amount of butter produced from all this milk (kg) 0.6 ± 0.0a 0.4 ± 0.0b milk amount churned and butter product from cross cow amount of milk churned in one session (liter) 6.9 ± 0.5a 4.6 ± 0.1b amount of butter produced from all this milk (kg) 0.7 ± 0.0a 0.4 ± 0.0b purpose of processing butter? 0.00** all for sale 2 8.3 5.1 all for home consumption 3 0 1.5 most of it for sale and some for consumption 75 86.5 80.6 most of it for consumption and some for sale 20 5.2 12.8 the value observed between the two districts significantly different at * (x2 < 0.05);** (x2 < 0.01); x2 = pearson chi-square, a,b = values with different superscripts in a row differ significantly p < 0.05. 20 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 86.5% of respondents used butter for the purpose of most of it for sale and some of it for consumption the rest 8.3%, 5.2% used butter all for sale and most of it for consumption and some for sale, respectively. 3.7 type of milk and milk product marketing types of milk product selling practices by the households are presented in table 7. milk is naturally perishable and it needs special handling to ensure better quality and extended shelf-life. due to perishability and special requirement, milk and its products in the country are marketed at different places in safe and unsafe ways [13]. in south ari district, 65% and 69% of households have experience selling raw milk and cheese; the rest 35% and 31% of respondents do not have the practice of selling it, respectively. similar to this study getabalew et al. [45] noticed that in ethiopia, fresh milk, butter, fermented whole milk (ergo), cottage cheese and buttermilk are sold through both formal and informal marketing channels. regarding cheese marketing the current finding agreed with tesfaye [46] who stated that household was not selling traditional cottage cheese (ayib) in all the surveyed areas of metema district rather it was consumed by the family members and given to calves and pet animals together with the whey (aguat). the study revealed that, 96% and 100% of the household experienced selling of butter in south ari and malle district, respectively. in contradiction to the current result ayeneshet et al. [17] noticed that the majority (76.0%) of households’ in alefa district had no practice of selling milk and its products in north gondar zone. similarly, abebe et al. [38] in gurage zone noted that, cultural restrictions (taboos), inefficient milk production and poor market access were the main constraints to selling milk products. about 72% and 95% of surveyed households have not experienced adulteration in south ari and malle district, respectively. the remaining 28% in south ari and 5% in malle district confirmed that they have practices of adulteration. among these to be adulterated milk products were raw milk with water, butter with banana, cheese and yogurt. this result agreed with the report of mekonen and mengistu [47] who reported that 76.7% of milk samples collected from farmers around bair dar were free from adulterants. in the same way asrat and zelalem [48] reported that about 95% of the respondents in boditti town and its surrounding areas agreed that there is an adulteration of milk and milk products. in line with this study amistu et al. [49] noticed that the major type of adulteration reported by consumers was 67 and 33% of the butter they purchase is adulterated with banana and ‘sheno lega’ respectively in damot woyde woreda, southern ethiopia. adulteration is often implemented to purposely reduce the quality (increase the quantity) of milk to gain profit dishonestly. it is the intentional substitution, addition and abstraction of substances that adversely affect nature, substances and quality of milk and its products [50]. adulteration is also the central medium to reduce the nutritive table 7. types of milk products sold by the respondents in the study area (%). activities districts south -ari malle overall x2 do you sale fresh milk? 0.00** yes 65 0 33.2 no 35 100 66.8 do you sale butter? 0.06 yes 96 100 98 no 4 0 2 do you sale cheese? 0.00** yes 69 0 35.2 no 31 100 64.8 is there adulteration practice in the communities? 0.00** yes 28 5 16.5 no 72 95 83.5 methods of transportation to sale the products? 0.00** on foot 67 95.8 81.1 through vehicle 6 0 3.1 motorbike 27 4.2 15.8 the value observed between the two districts significantly different at * (x2 < 0.05); ** (x2 < 0.01); x2 = pearson chi-square. 21 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 value of milk due to the dilution effect and which is directly affecting the further processing of milk to produce other dairy products such as yogurt and cheese [50]. nearly 67% and 95.8% of respondents’ milk delivery and transportation to sell milk products were by foot in south ari and malle district, respectively. the rest 27% in south ari and 4.2% in malle used motorbikes for transportation to sell their products. a similar study by fortunate [51] revealed the most common means of transport used by farmers in delivering milk was on foot in tanzania. in the rural areas of the country, the milk production system accounts for about 97% of the total milk production in the country where it is difficult to transport the raw milk to the marketing places due to poor infrastructure [52]. the current findings are also in line with the view of sintayehu et al. [24] and yousuf [53] they reported that the distance from market centres mainly to urban sites had a major prohibiting effect on producers from selling raw milk to consumers of urban resident and other dairy producers who live a distance from urban centres it could fetch a comparatively lower selling price than farmers in close to urban areas. for increasing milk production the provision of assured marketing channels is the primary condition that is sufficiently profitable to milk producers [54]. 4. conclusions and recommendation the study was conducted in south ari and malle district of south omo zone, to assess and describe the indigenous knowledge of milk production, handling, processing and utilization practices. the majority of the respondents in south ari (75%) and malle (72.9%) districts have their own grazing land. seasonal feed shortage is common in south ari (97%) and malle (94.8%) districts, respectively. about 92% in south ari district practiced supply of supplementary feed and 33.33% in malle district had the experience of giving supplementary feed for their dairy cow. grazing feed shortage (73%) and limited access to improved breed (26%) in south ari; and grazing land shortage (52.1%), prolonged drought and seasonal fluctuation (44.8%) in malle were identified as constraints of dairying. major milking and milk-handling utensils were clay pot (65%) and calabash (88.5%) in south ari and malle district, respectively. milk is typically stored to produce ergo for either short-term (three days) fermented milk for home consumption or making butter and production of other products longer-term (up to six days) fermented milk. the milk products are separated by traditional hand churning. for making butter, fresh milk is collected over a period of three to six days in a traditional clay pot vessel. about 95% of the respondent in south ari processed different milk products such as yogurt, butter, buttermilk, cheese and whey. all these milk products were used for home consumption and marketing. however, in malle district, 72.9% of respondents processed only yogurt, butter, and buttermilk and 26% processed only butter for marketing. therefore, it is concluded that supporting the dairying extension services in the areas via enhancing the input provision system for dairy producers is vital. more efforts are required to improve milking, milk handling and processing by creating awareness and standard utensils utilization. the majority of the dairy producers followed inadequate milk sanitary practices hence the milk sanitary practices of the study areas should be improved. funding this research activity was conducted funds from the pastoral, agro-pastoral and special support requiring regions research and capacity building (pap) and ethiopian institute of agricultural and research (eiar) collaboration with jinka agricultural research center (jarc) to improve livestock through assessing dairy husbandry practices in south omo. acknowledgements this research has been made possible through the financially support of pastoral, agro-pastoral and special support requiring regions research and capacity building (pap) and ethiopian institute of agricultural and research (eiar) collaboration with jinka agricultural research center (jarc). sincere appreciation also goes to the south ari and malle district dairy cattle keeper. data availability all data are available in the main text or in the supporting materials, and raw data can be obtained from the corresponding author upon request. conflict of interests the authors have not declared any conflict of interests. references [1] duguma, b., 2022. milk composition, traditional processing, marketing, and consumption among smallholder dairy farmers in selected towns of jimma zone, oromia regional state, ethiopia. food science & nutrition published by wiley periodicals llc. 10, 2879-2895. 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[31] pandey, g.s., voskuil, g.c.s., 2011. manual on milk safety, quality and hygiene. golden valley agricultural research trust, zambia. 52, 7-26. [32] sisay, l., 2018. assessment of cow’s milk hygienic practices under small scale farmers in west hararghe zone, oromia national regional state, ethiopia. advances in life science and technology. 68, 46-55. [33] onyango, c.a., gakuya, l.w., mathooko, f.m., et al., 2014. preservative effect of various indigenous plants on fermented milk from maasai community of kajiado county. journal of applied biosciences. 73, 5935-5941. [34] tigist, t., 2021. milk production and reproductive performance of local and crossbred dairy cows in woreta town, south gondar zone of amhara region [master’s thesis]. ethiopia: bahir dar university. [35] abraha, n., 2018. handling, processing and utilization practices of milk products in raya, the southern highlands of tigray, ethiopia. scholar journal of food & nutrition. 1(1). [36] ayantu, m., 2006. women’s role on production, processing and marketing of milk and milk products in delbo watershed of wolayta [master’s thesis]. ethiopia: hawassa university. [37] alganesh, t., 2002. traditional milk and milk products handling practice and raw milk quality in eastern wollega, ethiopia [master’s thesis]. ethiopia: alemaya university. [38] abebe, b., mohammed, y., zelalem, y., 2014. handling, processing and utilization of milk and milk products in ethiopia: a review. world journal of dairy & food sciences. 9(2), 105-112. [39] kefyalew, g., solomon, a., mitku, e., et al., 2016. production, processing and handling of cow milk in dawa chefa district, amhara region, ethiopia. journal of veterinary science & technology. 7, 286. [40] desalegn, a., 2013. antimicrobial activity of lactic acid bacteria isolated from “ergo”, ethiopian traditional fermented milk. current research in microbiology and biotechnology. 1(6), 278-284. 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[48] asrat, a., zelalem, y., 2014. patterns of milk and milk products adulteration in boditti town and its surrounding, south ethiopia. scholarly journal of agricultural science. 4(10), 512-516. 24 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 [49] amistu, k., afwork, z., meshesha, d., 2016. assessment of butter marketing system and supply chain in case of damot woyde woreda, southern ethiopia. journal of marketing and consumer research. 20, 13-20. [50] getaneh, d., 2022. assessments of raw cow milk quality on some selected districts of ayer tena, ghion and kobel in bahir dar city [master’s thesis]. ethiopia: bahir dar university. p. 60. [51] fortunate, s., 2013. assessment of milk handling practices and bacterial contaminations along the dairy value chain in lushoto and handeni districts, tanzania [internet]. dissertation, university of agriculture morogoro, tanzania. available from: https:// www.suaire.sua.ac.tz/handle/123456789/522. [52] seifu, e., doluschitz, r., 2014. analysis of the dairy value chain: challenges and opportunities for dairy development in dire dawa, eastern ethiopia. international journal of agricultural policy and research. 2(6), 224-233. [53] yousuf, k.m., 2003. certain aspects of the dairy systems in the harar milkshed, eastern ethiopia [phd thesis]. bloemfontein: university of the free state. [54] ayenew, y.a., wurzinger, m., tegegne, a., et al., 2009. handling, processing and marketing of milk in the north western ethiopian highlands [internet]. livestock research for rural development [cited 2022 oct 27]. available from: http://www.lrrd.org/ lrrd21/7/ayen21097.htm http://www.lrrd.org/lrrd21/7/ayen21097.htm http://www.lrrd.org/lrrd21/7/ayen21097.htm 42 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: ajay kumar singh, school of liberal arts and management, dit university, dehradun, uttarakhand, 248009, india; email: a.k.seeku@gmail.com; kumar.ajay_3@yahoo.com. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.498 received: 28 february 2022; received in revised form: 25 march 2022; accepted: 28 march 2022; published: 31 march 2022 citation: singh, a.k., kumar, s., ashraf, s.n., et al., 2022. implications of farmer’s adaptation strategies to climate change in agricultural sector of gujarat: experience from farm level data. research on world agricultural economy. 3(1), 498. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.498 1. introduction climate change has been increased the high uncertainty in production and vulnerability in the agricultural sector world-wide [1-3]. recently, climate change has been observed in terms of rising minimum and maximum temperature, and change in rainfall pattern and precipitation [1,2,4,5]. high fluctuation in floods, droughts and natural disasters clearly show that climatic factors are changing due to anthropogenic and natural activities at global level [5,6]. it is likely to be expected that the impact of climate change will be more on socio-economic development and production activities of the agricultural sector in most developing research article implications of farmer’s adaptation strategies to climate change in agricultural sector of gujarat: experience from farm level data ajay kumar singh1*● sanjeev kumar1● shah nawaz ashraf2● bhim jyoti3● 1. school of liberal arts and management, dit university, dehradun, uttarakhand, 248009, india 2. entrepreneurship development institute of india ahmedabad, gujarat, india 3. v.c.s.g., uuhf, college of forestry, ranichauri, tehri garhwal, uttarakhand, india abstract: this study examined the farmer’s perception on climate change and adaptation strategies to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change in the agricultural sector of gujarat. it used farm level information of 400 farmers who were purposely selected from 8 districts. thereupon, linear, non-linear and log-linear production function models were used to examine the impact of climate change, farmer’s adaptation strategies and technological change on agricultural production in gujarat. the descriptive and empirical results specify that adaptation strategies (i.e., change in showing time of crops, mixed cropping pattern, irrigation facilities, application of green and organic fertilizer, hybrid varieties of seeds, dampening of seed before planting, climate tolerate crops, organic farming and technology) have a positive impact on agricultural production. thus, farmer’s adaptation strategies are useful to mitigate the negative impact of climate change in the agricultural sector. maximum temperature and minimum temperature, precipitation and rainfall have a negative impact on agricultural production. however, the impact of these factors seemed positive in the agricultural sector when farmers apply aforementioned adaptation strategies in cultivation. family size, education level of farmers, annual income of farmers, arable land, irrigated area, cost of technology, appropriate technology and financial support from government have a positive contribution to increase agricultural production in gujarat. keywords: adaptation strategies; agricultural sector; technology; climate change; gujarat; india; mitigation approach mailto:kumar.ajay_3@yahoo.com http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i1.498 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0660-6743 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0429-0925 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0660-6743 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2074-1071 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0660-6743 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5410-5404 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0660-6743 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6960-5097 43 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 counties including india. climate change would be caused to increase the vulnerability of 60% of the population who depend upon the agricultural sector in india [2,5]. there are many reasons which would increase high vulnerability for agricultural sector due to large dependency of population on agricultural sector; large dependency of sugarcane, oilseed and textile industries on agricultural sector in india [5]. india is located at low latitude and it has small size of land holdings with low economic capacity of farmers who are unable to maintain their income due to climate change. there exists high illiteracy of farmers, ineffective mechanism of government policies towards climate change, low technological upgradation of farmers and ineffective supports from agricultural extension services in india [5,7,8]. subsequently, climate change will create several obstacles to increase sustainability in production and yield, food and health security, farmers’ income and trust in farming, price stability, rural development, and socio-economic development of farming and nonfarming communities in india [2,9,10]. also, poverty, income inequality, food insecurity, nutritional insecurity and hunger may increase due to climate change in india [2,9,10]. therefore, it would be a major challenge for agronomists, agricultural scientists and policy makers to implement an effective plan to increase agricultural sustainability in the presence of climate change and changing socio-economic activities of the people in india [10,11]. agriculture sector is useful to ensure food security, nutritional security and poverty alleviation in india [5,8]. it is useful to generate employment for a large segment of society [5]. agriculture sector also provides the raw material for several agriculture industries. thus, it is useful to increase industrial growth and economic development. it also provides fodder for livestock which meet the requirement of milk and raw material for dairy based industries in india. moreover, the agricultural sector is useful to produce surplus labour for the industries, provide the raw material for the agriculture industries, generate revenue for the government as a tax and foreign currency, create capital assets and develop rural infrastructure. most specifically, in india, agricultural sector is useful to: meet the food requirement of present and growing population; provide jobs to large segment of society and increase the exports of many products such as tea, sugar, jute, coffee, etc. [5,12]. india is also a main producer of several crops in the world. for example, it is the largest producer of milk, jute; second largest in wheat, rice, groundnut, vegetables, fruits, sugar cane, and potatoes, onion; third in tea, rapeseed and tobacco production in the world. agriculture and allied sectors are the mainstay of the indian economy. this sector also creates the demand for many industrial products such as fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural instruments and machines. india has a first position in total pulses, jute, buffaloes and milk production in the world. india also has a 2nd position in arable land, total cultivated land and participation of economic active population in agriculture. india is a major producer of wheat, rice, groundnut, vegetables & melons, fruits (excluding melons), potatoes, onion (dry), sugarcane, cotton, cattle, and goats in the world. india has a 3rd position in many agricultural products such as total cereals, rapeseed, tea, tobacco leaves, sheep, and eggs production. india has a 5th position in chicken which meets the nutritional security of most of the population. india also has a 7th position in coffee (green) production in the world. it is also the 2nd largest producer of flowers after china. it is also a leading producer, consumer and exporter for spices and plantation crops like tea and coffee at global level. in india, the agricultural sector has a significant contribution to increasing sustainable livelihood security of farming and non-farming communities. however, climate change is causing a high vulnerability for the indian agricultural sector. in this regard, existing studies estimated the impact of climate change in the indian agricultural sector in several ways. most studies have focused to examine the climate change impact on production and yield of food-grain and commercial crops in india [1,5,8,11-30]. other studies also assessed the influence of climatic and non-climatic factors on productivity and performance of agricultural sector in india [31-38]. few studies examined the association of climate vulnerability with farmer’s suicides; climate change and human health; and agricultural practices and ecosystem services in india [2,9,39]. some studies have also assessed the role of organic farming in the agricultural sector [40,41]. existing researchers also observed the farmer’s perception and natural disaster, and mitigation approach in the indian agricultural sector [42-45]. some studies have examined the importance of organic farming and credit facilities in indian agricultural sector [46-51]. descriptive and empirical findings of aforesaid studies concluded that production and yield of food-grain and cash crops, agricultural productivity are expected to decline due to climate change in india. therefore, it is necessary to apply technological advancement which can be effective to mitigate the negative impact of climate change in the agricultural sector [6]. also, more practises of agricultural technology will work as an effective adaptation strategy toward climate change in indian farming. technological applications such as biotechnological tools and heat tolerance crops will be also useful to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change in farming. previous studies have used different proxy variables to capture the influence of technological change in agricultural sector using time series, panel data and cross-sec44 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 tional data [1,5,7,8,12,19,27,30,52]. however, limited studies could examine the impact of technological change on indian agriculture using farm level data. furthermore, there are many socio-economic variables which may have a positive impact on agricultural production. these variables may be used as adaptation strategies to mitigate the climate change impact in the agricultural sector of india and other economies [1,3,6,53-55]. few studies assessed the role of social-economic factors and climatic factors in agricultural sustainability in indian states [10]. as previous studies have been argued that technology and specific characteristics of farmers can be considered as adaptation strategies to climate change in the agricultural sector. though, limited studies could assess the significance of technology and farmer’s socio-economic variables in the indian agricultural sector [42-44,52]. hence, this study has a significant contribution to the existing literature which examines the impact of climate change and farmer’s socio-economic profile on agricultural production in gujarat using a farm level data of 400 farmers. accordingly, this study assessed the answers on the following research questions: • what is the farmer’s perception towards climate change and adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector? • what is the influence of climatic factors and farmer’s adaptation strategies on agricultural production of gujarat? • how farmer’s adaptation strategies may be used to mitigate the negative impact of climate change in the agricultural sector of gujarat? • what may be the role of technology to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change in the agricultural sector of gujarat? • what may be the policy initiatives to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change in the agricultural sector of gujarat? with regards to aforesaid research questions, this study achieved following objectives: • to examine the farmers’ perception on climate change and adaptation strategies in context of agricultural sector of gujarat. • to assess the impact of climate change, farmer’s adaptation strategies and technological change on agricultural production in gujarat. • to provide the practical approaches to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change in agricultural sector of gujarat. 2. research methods and materials 2.1 study area and sources of data this study comprises the farm level information which was composed through personal interviews of 400 farmers from 8 districts (i.e., anand, banas kantha, bhavnagar, junagadh, kheda, surat and vadodara) of gujarat. these districts were selected based on their percentage share in agricultural labourers, agricultural district domestic product, gross cropped area and net sown area in gujarat. these districts also occupied more than 30% cropped area and production of wheat, rice, jowar, bajra, arhar, rapeseed & mustard, sugarcane and potato crops in gujarat. two blocks from each district were selected randomly and one village from each block was chosen purposively. thus, 16 villages were considered in this study. thereafter, 25 farmers from each village were identified randomly for a personal interview. total 400 farmers were interviewed, however, only 240 respondents could provide the completed information. a structural questionnaire was used to collect the relevant information from the farmers. the interview of farmers was conducted from 01 october 2019 to 31 december 2019. information of climatic factors was derived from the india meteorological department (imd), ministry of earth sciences (government of india (goi)) and website of international crops research institute for the semi-arid tropics (icrisat). farm harvest price of each crop was taken from the directorate of economics and statistics, department of agriculture, cooperation and farmers welfare, ministry of agriculture and famers welfare (goi). 2.2 formulation of empirical model existing studied have been used different variables like production and yield of individual crop, aggregate production of food-grain and cash crops, agricultural production and productivity (monetary value) as dependent variables to examine their association with climatic and non-climatic variables in india [13,15-18,21-23,26,28,30,35,36]. thus, agricultural production (in monetary terms) of all crops was used as a dependent variable in this study. monetary value of production of each crop (that was cultivated by farmers during survey year) was estimated based on farm harvest prices. agricultural production is significantly associated with several climatic factors such as rainfall, wind speed, co2 concentration, precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, actual evapotranspiration, solar radiation, solar intensity, water availability, soil moisture and relative humidity [4,14-17,20,21,24,26,28,31,33-35,56]. hence, coefficient variation in actual annual evapotranspiration, annual average maximum temperature, annual average minimum temperature and annual average precipitation during 1991-2015 were used as climatic factors in this study. kumar et al. [12] also used coefficient variation in maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall in empirical models. 45 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 age, family members, education level, annual income of farmer, agricultural land, irrigated area, agricultural labour, application of fertilizer, gender of farmers and main occupation of farmers have significant contribution in the agricultural sector [6,12,19,27,32,34,36,57,58]. accordingly, these variables also can be used as adaptation strategies to mitigate the climate change impact in the agricultural sector [53-55,59]. financial support for farmers from the government to buy new technology or inputs was also used to examine the impact of government policies on agricultural production. therefore, aforesaid variables were used as agricultural inputs in this study. a technology has several usages in the agricultural sector. therefore, it is difficult to examine the impact of technology on the agricultural sector. previous studies have used different variables such as irrigated area, fertilizers and others to capture the impact of technological change in the agricultural sector. furthermore, few studies also used time trend factors to examine the influence of technological change in the agricultural sector [5,7,8,12,27]. hence, in this study the cost of technology was used to capture the impact of technological change in agricultural production. while, it measures as an aggregate cost of technology which was used by farmers to grow various crops. also, farmer’s perception on appropriate technology was included to capture the influence of technological change in agricultural sector. thus, cost of technology and appropriate technology was considered as independent variables in this study. moreover, farmers were used several adaptation strategies (e.g., late sowing of crops, more irrigation, high yielding of seed, mixed cropping pattern, wetting of seed before planting, use of green fertilizer, used of climate tolerate crops, increasing intensity of inputs, and use of technology, etc.) to mitigate the negative impact of climate change in cultivation. thus, this variable was also used an independent variable in the empirical models. linear, log-linear and non-linear production function models were used to examine the regression coefficients of aforementioned explanatory variables with agricultural production in this study. several studies have also used similar regression models to examine the influence of climatic and non-climatic factors on agricultural production in india [5,8,12,19,25,30,36]. thus, in this study, linear production function model was used in following form: (ap)i =α0 +α1 (cvaaea)i +α2 (cvaamaxt)i +α3 (cvaamint)i +α4 (cvaapre)i +α5 (cvaarf )i +α6 (agre)i +α7 ( fame)i +α8 (edlere)i +α9 (aninfa)i +α10 (toagla)i, +α11 (irar)i +α12 (usagla)i +α13 (usfe)i +α14 (cote)i + α15 (gere)i +α16 (maocre)i +α17 (apte)i +α18 ( fisugo)i +α19 (adstfa)i +µi (1) here, α0 is constant term; α1, α2, …, α19 are the regression coefficient of corresponding explanatory variables; µi is the error-term; and i is the cross-sectional farmers (1 to 240) in equation (1). the explanation of remaining variables is given in table 1. non-linear production function model was useful to identify the long-term association of independent variables with agricultural production [30]. also, it measures that up to what extent a specific variable has a positive or negative impact on output. hence, a non-linear production function model was also applied to examine the longtable 1. summary of the variables variables symbol unit agricultural production ap rs. coefficient variation in annual average evapotranspiration cvaaea mm coefficient variation in annual average maximum temperature cvaamaxt 0c coefficient variation in annual average minimum temperature cvaamint 0c coefficient variation in annual average precipitation cvaapre mm coefficient variation in annual actual rainfall cvaarf mm age of respondents agre years family members fame number education level of respondent edlere number annual income of the family aninfa rs. total agricultural land toagla ha. irrigated area irar ha. use of agricultural labour per ha. usagla number use of fertilizer usfe kg. cost of technology per hectare cote rs./ha. gender of respondents [1= male; 0 = female] gere number main occupation of respondents [1= agriculture; 0= non-agriculture] maocre number appropriateness of the technologies [1= appropriate; 0= inappropriate] apte number financial support from government to buy new technology or inputs [1 = yes; 0 = no] fisugo number adaptation strategy of farmers (1=yes; 0 =no) adstfa number source: authors’ compilation. 46 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 term association of explanatory variables with agricultural production in this study. for this, the original and square terms of independent variables were included in nonlinear production function model in the following form: (ap)i = γ0 +γ1 (cvaaea)i +γ2 (sq. cvaaea)i +γ3 (cvaamaxt)i +γ4 (sq. cvaamaxt)i +γ5 (cvaamint)i +γ6 (sq. cvaamint)i +γ7 (cvaapre)i +γ8 (sq. cvaapre)i +γ9 (cvaarf)i +γ10 (sq. cvaarf )i +γ11 (agre)i +γ12 (sq. agre)i +γ13 ( fame)i +γ14 (sq. fame)i +γ15 (edlere)i +γ16 (sq. edlere)i +γ17 (aninfa)i +γ18 (sq. aninfa)i +γ19 (toagla)i +γ20 (sq. toagla)i +α21 (irar)i +γ22 (sq. irar)i +γ23 (usagla)i +γ24 (sq. usagla)i +γ25 (usfe)i +γ26 (sq. usfe)i +γ27 (cote)i +γ28 (sq. cote)i +γ29 (gere)i +γ30 (maocre)i +γ31 (apte)i +γ32 ( fisugo)i +γ33 (adstfa)i +¥i (2) here, γ0 is constant term; sq. is the square term of corresponding variables; γ1, γ2, …, γ23 are the regression coefficients of corresponding explanatory variables; ¥i is the error-term in equation (2). natural log of all quantitative variables was also considered for the log-linear production function model in this study. the log-linear production function model was used in following form: log (ap)i = β0 +β1 log (cvaaea)i +β2 log (cvaamaxt)i +β3 log (cvaamint)i +β4 log (cvaapre)i +β5 log (cvaarf )i +β6 log (agre)i +β7 log ( fame)i +β8 log (edlere)i +β9 log (aninfa)i +β10 log (toagla)i +β11 log (irar)i +β12 log (usagla)i +β13 log (usfe)i +β14 log (cote)i +β15 (gere)i +β16 (maocre)i +β17 (apte)i +β18 ( fisugo)i +β19 (adstfa)i +λi (3) here, β0 is the constant term; sq. is the square term of corresponding variables; β1, β2, …, β19 are the regression coefficients of corresponding explanatory variables; λi is the error-term in equation (3). 2.3 selection of appropriate model this study collects the primary data from the selected farmers. hence, it was essential to check the validity of data. previous studies have used cronbach’s alpha test to estimate reliability of primary data [60-62]. if the statistical value of cronbach’s alpha test is greater than 0.70 for an individual variable, then it has validity. therefore, statistical values of cronbach’s alpha test were estimated for all variables. thereafter, statistical values of skewness and kurtosis were also estimated for each variable to check the normality. previous studies have argued that if the statistical values of kurtosis and skewness for a particular variable lie between –1 to +1, then it can be observed that it is in a normal form. multi-correlation measures the exact linear relationship among the explanatory variables [61]. it may be caused to increase misleading in the regression coefficients. thus, variance inflation factor (vif) was estimated to identify the existence of multi-correlation among the independent variables. breusch-pagan/cook-weisberg test was used to identify the presence of heteroskedasticity in the cross-sectional data [63]. as this study used linear, log-linear and non-linear production function models to estimate the regression coefficients of independent variables, thus, ramsey reset test was used to identify the appropriate function form of the proposed empirical model (8). akaike information criterion (aic) and bayesian information criterion (bic) tests were applied to check the consistency of regression coefficients in proposed empirical models [8]. 3. descriptive results 3.1 social-economic profile of the respondents sample size of 240 farmers had the significant diversity in term of gender, age, family size, education level, main occupation, annual income, total agricultural land, irrigated area, use of agricultural labour per hectare, fertilizer application per hectare and cost of technology per hectare (table 2). the sample included 97.50% males, age of 34.17% respondents were between 30-39 years, 51.67% respondents had the family’s size between 4-5 members, 29.58% respondents were graduate, 26.67% respondents were engaged in farming and livestock rearing sector, 32.50% farmers had annual income between inr550001700000, 50.83% respondents had 0-5 hectare irrigated area and 60.42% respondents used 51-60 agricultural labour per hectare. around 64.2%, 89.2%, 63.3% and 46.67% respondents have understanding on economic viability, social viability, environmental viability and appropriate technology, respectively. also, 43.75% respondents received financial support from government and banking sector for cultivation. only 46.25% respondents were applying practices of adaptation strategies to mitigate the climate change impact in the agricultural sector. 3.2 explanation of farmers’ perception on climate change and technology based on descriptive results, it was reported that most farmers accepted that agricultural production has declined due to climate change. it was also observed that farmers were applying several adaptation strategies such as change in showing time of crops, more irrigation, application of additional fertilizer, hybrid varieties of seed, wetting of seed before planting, mixed cropping pattern, use of high yielding varieties of seeds, use of green and organic fertilizer, use of technology, use of climate tolerate crop, planting date adjustment, and increasing intensity of inputs in cultivation to mitigate the negative impact of climate change in this sector. furthermore, as per the farmer’s view, application of technology has a crucial contribution to mitigate the negative impact of climate change in the 47 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 table 2. sample distribution based on characteristics of farmers variables characteristics frequency % gender male 234 97.50 female 6 2.50 age (years) 20 29 44 18.33 30 39 82 34.17 40 49 65 27.08 50 59 35 14.58 60 and above 14 5.83 family size (number) 0 3 18 7.50 45 124 51.67 6 8 79 32.92 9 10 12 5.00 11 and above 7 2.92 education level 8th passed 43 17.92 10th passed 41 17.08 12th passed 46 19.17 graduate 71 29.58 post graduate 39 16.25 main occupation only farming 157 65.42 farming and livestock rearing 64 26.67 farming and milk production 12 5.00 farming and dairy farming 7 2.92 annual income of the family (in rs.) 140000 250000 12 5.00 250001 -350000 22 9.17 350001 -450000 40 16.67 450001 -550000 55 22.92 550001 -700000 78 32.50 710001 -912000 33 13.75 total agricultural land (in ha.) 0 6 98 40.83 7 12 68 28.33 13 18 30 12.50 19 25 25 10.42 26 30 19 7.92 irrigated area (in ha.) 0 5 122 50.83 6 10 69 28.75 11 15 25 10.42 16 20 15 6.25 21 25 9 3.75 use of agricultural labour per hectare (number) 40 50 60 25.00 51 60 145 60.42 61 78 35 14.58 fertilizer application per hectare (kg./ha) 100 150 136 56.67 151 200 168 70.00 200 250 26 10.83 cost of technology per hectare (rs./ha.) 1500 2000 18 7.5 2001 2500 84 35 2501 3000 138 57.5 economic viability yes 154 64.2 no 86 35.8 social viability yes 214 89.2 no 26 10.8 environmental viability yes 152 63.3 no 88 36.7 appropriate of technologies yes 112 46.67 no 128 53.33 financial support from government and banking sector yes 105 43.75 no 135 56.25 farmer’s adaptation strategy to climate change yes 111 46.25 no 129 53.75 source: author’s estimation based on farm level information. 48 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 agricultural sector. change in showing date and use of more technology in the agricultural sector work as a better adaptation strategy to mitigate the climate change impact in cultivation [1]. mixed cropping patterns, soil conservation practices and crop rotation may be better adaptation strategies to cope with climate change in the agricultural sector of lebanon [3]. furthermore, technology was effective to increase water conservation, environmental sustainability, farmer’s income, social equity and agricultural productivity. it was also found that poor and small-land holders were unable to use technology in cultivation due to small size of land holdings, low economic capacity of farmers to bear the high cost of technology, low skills of farmers, inappropriate financial support from government and banking sector, low association of farmers with various stakeholders (i.e., agricultural entrepreneurs, agricultural universities, agricultural extension offices, agriculture cooperative societies), and insignificant skill and technical support from sellers or agricultural technology creator industries. 3.3 validity of the variables the validity and consistency of individual variables are checked through cronbach’s alpha test. this test is highly effective to examine the internal consistency of a specific variable or set of variables. the statistical values of cronbach’s alpha test all variables are given in table 3. as per the estimated values of cronbach’s alpha test, the variables can be segregated in six categories i.e., excellent if the value is greater than 0.90; good if the value lie between 0.80 to 0.89; acceptable if the value lie between 0.70 to 0.79; questionable if the value lie between 0.60 to 0.69; poor if the value lie between 0.50 to 0.59; and acceptable if the value is less than 0.49. as per the estimated value of test scale is 0.85 and alpha values for all variables were found more than 0.80 [60-62]. thus, the estimates show that the selected set of variables have consistency and rationality for considering undertaken indicators in statistical and empirical investigations. the statistical summary (i.e., minimum, maximum, mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis) of the variables is given in table 4. as per the estimated values of standard deviation, it was perceived that most variables (except agricultural production, age of respondents, annual income of farmers, use of fertilizer, cost of technology) do not have high leverages. furthermore, most variables (except, agricultural production, use of fertilizer, cost of technology, and gender of respondents) have the skewness values between –1 to +1. thus, these variables were in normal form. however, values of kurtosis were not between –1 to +1 for all variables. thus, the natural logarithm of all variables were used to convert them in a normal form. 3.4 correlation coefficients among the variables the correlation coefficients of agricultural production with explanatory variables are given in table 5. the correlation coefficients of coefficient variation in annual table 3. scale reliability coefficient of variables variables sign item-test correlation item-rest correlation average interitem correlation alpha ap + 0.49 0.41 0.23 0.85 cvaaea + 0.76 0.71 0.21 0.84 cvaamaxt + 0.86 0.83 0.21 0.83 cvaamint + 0.86 0.83 0.21 0.83 cvaapre + 0.85 0.82 0.21 0.83 cvaarf + 0.86 0.83 0.21 0.83 agre – 0.34 0.25 0.24 0.86 fame – 0.27 0.18 0.24 0.86 edlere + 0.54 0.46 0.23 0.85 aninfa + 0.46 0.38 0.23 0.85 toagla + 0.86 0.83 0.21 0.83 irar + 0.83 0.79 0.21 0.83 usagla – 0.10 0.00 0.25 0.87 usfe + 0.61 0.54 0.22 0.84 cote – 0.16 0.06 0.25 0.86 gere + 0.06 -0.04 0.26 0.87 maocre – 0.25 0.15 0.24 0.86 apte + 0.51 0.43 0.23 0.85 fisugo + 0.15 0.05 0.25 0.86 adstfa + 0.52 0.44 0.23 0.85 test scale 0.2276 0.85 source: estimated by authors. 49 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 average evapotranspiration, coefficient variation in annual average maximum temperature, coefficient variation in annual average minimum temperature, coefficient variation in annual average precipitation, coefficient variation in annual actual rainfall, education level of farmers, annual income of the farmers, total agricultural land, irrigated area and use of fertilizer with agricultural production were seemed positive and statistically significant. hence, the estimates indicate that aforesaid variables have a positive contribution in the agricultural sector. the correlation coefficients of other variables with agricultural production seemed statistically insignificant. table 4. statistical summary of the variables variables min max mean sd skewness kurtosis ap 12324 1789244 129299.9 170837 6.91 59.60 cvaaea 0.14 5.02 1.31 0.93 1.06 3.68 cvaamaxt 0.01 0.27 0.10 0.06 0.69 2.64 cvaamint 0.02 0.46 0.17 0.10 0.71 2.78 cvaapre 0.29 8.20 2.71 1.67 0.81 3.09 cvaarf 0.36 9.20 3.51 2.17 0.67 2.51 agre 22.00 65.00 39.98 10.64 0.33 2.19 fame 2.00 12.00 5.83 1.83 0.80 3.75 edlere 7.00 17.00 12.59 3.09 –0.11 1.69 aninfa 140000 912000 531692 159320 –0.02 2.55 toagla 1.00 25.00 9.27 5.57 0.67 2.67 irar 0.50 20.00 6.16 4.12 0.88 3.15 usagla 51.00 86.00 65.47 5.48 0.38 4.07 usfe 143 22452 1897 2398 4.56 32.50 cote 165 2986 2528 325 –2.02 13.57 gere 0.00 1.00 0.98 0.14 –6.71 46.02 maocre 0.00 1.00 0.65 0.48 –0.65 1.42 apte 0.00 1.00 0.72 0.30 –0.51 1.91 fisugo 0.00 1.00 0.44 0.50 0.25 1.06 adstfa 0.00 1.00 0.46 0.50 0.15 1.02 source: estimated by authors. table 5. correlation coefficients of the variables variables ap cvaaea cvaamaxt cvaamint cvaapre cvaarf agre fame edlere aninfa ap 1 0.435** 0.454** 0.446** 0.433** 0.453** –0.069 –0.019 0.124* 0.201** cvaaea 0.435** 1 0.858** 0.818** 0.893** 0.864** –0.105 –0.001 0.093 0.200** cvaamaxt 0.454** 0.858** 1 0.995** 0.957** 0.991** –0.112* –0.028 0.180** 0.345** cvaamint 0.446** 0.818** 0.995** 1 0.945** 0.984** –0.116* –0.019 0.185** 0.360** cvaapre 0.433** 0.893** 0.957** 0.945** 1 0.954** –0.115* –0.01 0.173** 0.334** cvaarf 0.453** 0.864** 0.991** 0.984** 0.954** 1 –0.119* –0.024 0.170** 0.348** agre –0.069 –0.105 –0.112* –0.116* –0.115* –0.119* 1 0.252** –0.469** –0.165** fame –0.019 –0.001 –0.028 –0.019 –0.01 –0.024 0.252** 1 –0.448** –0.070 edlere 0.124* 0.093 0.180** 0.185** 0.173** 0.170** –0.469** –0.448** 1 0.322** aninfa 0.201** 0.200** 0.345** 0.360** 0.334** 0.348** –0.165** –0.07 0.322** 1 toagla 0.441** 0.822** 0.977** 0.984** 0.963** 0.978** –0.128* –0.003 0.183** 0.377** irar 0.430** 0.782** 0.927** 0.936** 0.924** 0.924** –0.118* 0.012 0.162** 0.395** usagla –0.030 –0.041 –0.004 0.004 –0.032 –0.012 0.079 0.068 0.091 0.021 usfe 0.228** 0.549** 0.620** 0.619** 0.614** 0.625** –0.118* 0.008 0.115* 0.198** cote –0.049 –0.076 –0.030 –0.018 –0.010 –0.034 0.076 0.081 –0.091 0.147* gere 0.030 0.065 0.023 0.015 0.041 0.030 0.159** 0.162** –0.152** 0.045 maocre –0.030 0.021 –0.067 –0.087 –0.058 –0.053 0.000 0.095 –0.239** –0.035 apte 0.085 0.135* 0.190** 0.190** 0.174** 0.178** –0.369** –0.297** 0.801** 0.262** fisugo 0.051 –0.032 –0.024 –0.011 –0.011 –0.023 0.069 –0.193** 0.144* 0.000 adstfa 0.103 0.127* 0.166** 0.167** 0.152** 0.152** –0.342** –0.352** 0.886** 0.270** 50 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 4. discussion on empirical results two regression models were run simultaneously to get a better understanding of the impact of climatic factors and other inputs on agricultural production in this study. in the 1st empirical model, climatic and non-climatic factors (table 6), and 2nd empirical model only climatic factors were included (table 7). the regression coefficients of explanatory variables with agricultural production were estimated through linear, non-linear and log-linear production function models. the statistical values of ramsey reset test for all models appeared statistically insignificant. thus, the estimates show that functional forms of aforementioned production function models were seemed correctly-well-defined. the chi2 values under breuschpagan/cook-weisberg test were also found statistically insignificant, thus it infers that cross-sectional data do not have heteroskedasticity. log-linear production function model has lower values of aic and bic as compared to linear and non-linear production function models. hence, the log-linear production function model produces consistent results which were used to provide statistical inferences. the regression coefficient of annual average maximum temperature with agricultural production was found positive. thus, it indicates that agricultural production may be improved as increased in maximum temperature. the estimate is not consistent with previous studies which have reported negative impact of maximum temperature on agricultural production and yield at state-level estimation in india [25,34]. the regression coefficient of annual average minimum temperature with agricultural production seemed negative. hence, it is suggested that agricultural production is expected to be declined due to increase in minimum temperature. annual average precipitation and annual actual rainfall also showed a negative impact on agricultural production. hence, the aforesaid estimates show that agricultural production declines due to climate change in gujarat. the r-squared value was found 0.8298, thus, the estimate shows that 83% variation in agricultural production can be explained by undertaken explanatory variables. furthermore, the regression coefficient of family members with agricultural production appeared positive and statistically significant. thus, estimates show that agricultural production increases as an increase in family size of farmers. literate farmers have more understanding of table 5 continued variables toagla irar usagla usfe cote gere maocre apte fisugo adstfa ap 0.441** 0.430** –0.030 0.228** –0.049 0.03 –0.03 0.085 0.051 0.103 cvaaea 0.822** 0.782** –0.041 0.549** –0.076 0.065 0.021 0.135* –0.032 0.127* cvaamaxt 0.977** 0.927** –0.004 0.620** –0.03 0.023 –0.067 0.190** –0.024 0.166** cvaamint 0.984** 0.936** 0.004 0.619** –0.018 0.015 –0.087 0.190** –0.011 0.167** cvaapre 0.963** 0.924** –0.032 0.614** –0.010 0.041 –0.058 0.174** –0.011 0.152** cvaarf 0.978** 0.924** –0.012 0.625** –0.034 0.030 –0.053 0.178** –0.023 0.152** agre –0.128* –0.118* 0.079 –0.118* 0.076 0.159** 0.000 –0.369** 0.069 –0.342** fame –0.003 0.012 0.068 0.008 0.081 0.162** 0.095 –0.297** –0.193** –0.352** edlere 0.183** 0.162** 0.091 0.115* –0.091 –0.152** –0.239** 0.801** 0.144* 0.886** aninfa 0.377** 0.395** 0.021 0.198** 0.147* 0.045 –0.035 0.262** 0.000 0.270** toagla 1 0.953** –0.012 0.627** –0.010 0.028 –0.085 0.174** 0.005 0.159** irar 0.953** 1 –0.006 0.585** 0.008 0.052 –0.076 0.155** 0.005 0.135* usagla –0.012 –0.006 1 –0.025 0.059 –0.004 –0.013 0.084 0.058 0.068 usfe 0.627** 0.585** –0.025 1 –0.058 0.049 –0.072 0.154** –0.110* 0.109* cote –0.010 0.008 0.059 –0.058 1 –0.014 –0.04 –0.118* 0.033 –0.123* gere 0.028 0.052 –0.004 0.049 –0.014 1 0.017 –0.138* 0.011 –0.157** maocre –0.085 –0.076 –0.013 –0.072 –0.040 0.017 1 –0.250** –0.206** –0.274** apte 0.174** 0.155** 0.084 0.154** –0.118* –0.138* –0.250** 1 0.081 0.875** fisugo 0.005 0.005 0.058 –0.110* 0.033 0.011 –0.206** 0.081 1 0.176** adstfa 0.159** 0.135* 0.068 0.109* –0.123* –0.157** –0.274** 0.875** 0.176** 1 source: author’s estimation. note: **correlation is significant at the 0.01 level; * correlation is significant at the 0.05 level. 51 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 table 6. regression coefficient of explanatory variables with agricultural production regression models linear regression log-linear non-linear number of obs. 240 240 240 f value 3.71 62.34 2.4 prob > f 0.000 0.000 0.0001 r-squared 0.2429 0.8434 0.2778 adj. r-squared 0.1775 0.8298 0.1621 mean vif 186.80 294.90 1310.21 breusch-pagan/cook-weisberg test for heteroskedasticity [chi2] 290.47 21.76 493.00 ramsey reset test for (dv) [f value] 1.2 2.13 7.39 ramsey reset test for (iv) [f value] 0.63 0.86 0.85 aic 6436.572 148.3235 6453.247 bic 6506.185 217.9363 6571.589 agricultural production (dv) reg. coef. std. err. reg. coef. std. err. reg. coef. std. err. cvaaea 45841.330 36568.700 0.131 0.104 43998.180 101364.50 (cvaaea)^2 –188.481 23056.750 cvaamaxt 8349013.00 6354368.00 1.896 1.473 8609792.0 17800000.0 (cvaamaxt)^2 –5930011.0 51100000.0 cvaamint –4133836.0 3593001.00 –1.652 1.332 –3689721.0 9909242.00 (cvaamint)^2 1175084.00 17800000.0 cvaapre –88990.100 50729.710 –0.702 0.385 –96476.60 149641.000 (cvaapre)^2 2331.052 13373.450 cvaarf –57433.330 59383.210 –0.543 0.484 –262033.80 177406.400 (cvaarf)2 19506.410 14756.020 agre 121.410 1160.805 –0.034 0.093 –1991.738 8151.804 (agre)^2 24.954 96.138 fame 5123.179 6571.116 0.035 0.077 23979.730 31353.820 (fame)^2 –1362.207 2335.016 edlere 11316.060 8522.278 0.137 0.188 42173.560 39270.030 (edlere)^2 –1490.799 1596.023 aninfa 0.066 0.075 0.030 0.071 –0.139 0.385 (aninfa)^2 0.0001 0.0001 toagla 35396.390 31083.000 1.982 0.656 111783.000 86435.090 (toagla)^2 -2809.722 2860.114 irar 4671.183 8331.863 0.001 0.094 –1657.953 20596.440 (irar)^2 262.135 976.602 usagla –1141.709 1902.503 –0.054 0.256 13779.570 28239.620 (usagla)^2 –111.729 211.720 usfe –5.202 5.503 –0.093 0.057 –17.356 17.709 (usfe)^2 0.001 0.001 cote –16.201 32.478 0.018 0.101 193.371 157.366 (cote)^2 –0.047 0.035 gere –5438.471 73695.370 0.085 0.153 1662.428 77573.580 maocre –8411.764 23138.330 0.006 0.047 –15066.40 24561.350 apte –33323.750 74370.400 0.059 0.152 –21031.70 78118.480 fisugo 24488.180 22326.880 0.053 0.045 20175.710 23500.990 adstfa –38325.670 59798.980 0.046 0.112 –4510.820 65286.770 con. coef. –45654.170 189386.200 10.213 1.931 –905897.0 1011192.00 source: author’s estimation. 52 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 technology and various inputs and their usages in cultivation [5,6]. subsequently, the education level of farmers showed a positive impact on agricultural production. furthermore, educated farmers have more skills as compared to uneducated farmers. annual income of the farmers has a positive impact on agricultural production. cultivation is not possible without arable land [12]. therefore, it is a most significant input for cultivation. the estimate also exhibited the positive impact of total agricultural land on agricultural production. irrigated area is a crucial input for farming. subsequently, agricultural production will increase as an increase in irrigated area. the regression coefficient of irrigated area with agricultural production was also observed positive in this study. a group of researchers have claimed that irrigated area produce has high yield in cultivation [7,5,8,12,18,21]. the regression coefficient of use of fertilizer per hectare land with agricultural production was found positive. hence, recommended application of fertilizer in cultivation may be effective to increase yield of crops and agricultural production [5]. otherwise, it may be caused to reduce crop yield due to decline in soil fertility and quality in log-run. the cost of technology per hectare of land has a positive impact on agricultural production. the estimate can be justified that technological advancement would be useful to increase agricultural production. previous literature have also observed positive influence of technology on agricultural production [64,65]. subsequently, agricultural production increases as use of appropriate technology in cultivation increase. the regression coefficient of gender of respondents with agricultural production was found positive. thus, the estimate provides evidence that male farmers have a more contribution in agricultural production activities as compared to females. occupation of farmers has a significant impact on agricultural production. age of farmers has a negative impact on agricultural production. it may happen due to decrease in the contribution of farmers when their age increases. the regression coefficient of financial support for farmers from the government with agricultural production appeared positive. it can be useful to increase the economic capacity of the farmers to buy new technology, seeds, fertilizer and other inputs for farming. therefore, it is obvious that financial support for farmers from the government and banking sector will be useful to increase agricultural production [46]. the descriptive results also specify that the farmers were applying different adaptation strategies to mitigate the negative climate change impact in farming. therefore, this study also assessed the influence of farmer’s adaptation strategies on agricultural production. the regression coefficient of adaptation strategies with agricultural production was observed positive. thus, the estimate implies that adaptation strategies are found useful to mitigate the negative consequences to climate change in the agricultural sector [10,42-44]. human resources play a crucial role in farming. therefore, the use of agricultural labor per hectare land has a positive impact on agricultural production. the regression results based on non-linear production function, showed that climatic and non-climatic variables have a non-linear relationship with agricultural production. this study found u-shaped and hilly association of explanatory variables with agricultural production as per the sign of the regression coefficients of original and square terms of respective variables. evapotranspiration, maximum temperature, family members, education level of farmers, arable land, use of agricultural labour and cost of technology have an u-shaped relationship with agricultural production. while, minimum temperature, precipitation, rainfall, age of farmers, annual income of farmers, irrigated area and use of fertilizer have a hilly-shaped association with agricultural production. the regression coefficients of climatic factors with agricultural production are given in table 7. the r-squared value was observed 0.8312. thus, 83% variation in agricultural production depends upon undertaken climatic factors. the regression coefficient of coefficient variation in maximum temperature with agricultural production was appeared negative and statistically significant. the estimate indicates that agricultural production is expected to decline by 1.85% due to 1% increase in maximum temperature. precipitation, minimum temperature and actual rainfall have a positive impact on agricultural production. the estimates demonstrate that agricultural production is expected to be increased by 1.78%, 0.30% and 0.67% as an increase 1% increase in annual average minimum temperature, annual average precipitation and annual actual rainfall, respectively. as ground water increases due to increase in annual actual rainfall. subsequently, annual rainfall may be useful to meet the water requirement for farming activities and it would be useful to increase the productivity and production of food-grain and cash crops. the regression results based on non-linear production function model, showed that agricultural production has a non-linear association with climatic factors. evapotranspiration, minimum temperature and precipitation have an u-shaped relationship with agricultural production. agricultural production has a hilly-shaped association with maximum temperature and rainfall. prior studies have also reported non-linear association of climatic factors with crop production and productivity in india [8,19,30]. 53 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 5. conclusions and policy implications the main objective of this study was to detect the farmer’s perspective on adaptation strategies to climate change in cultivation. thereupon, it examined the impact of climate change, technology, adaptation strategies and socio-economic profile of farmers on agricultural production using linear, non-linear and log-linear production function models. farm level data were used, while it was collected through personal interviews of 400 farmers from purposely selected eight districts of gujarat. however, only 240 farmers could provide the complete information. this study, therefore, provides the statistical inference of descriptive and empirical results based on this sample size of 240 respondents. descriptive results imply that most farmers were conscious about climate change and its negative implications in agricultural sector. therefore, farmers were adopting several methods such as change in showing time of crops, irrigation facilities, application of fertilizer, and use of hybrid varieties of seeds, wetting of seed before planting in soil, climate tolerant crops, improving intensity of inputs and use of various technologies to cope with climate change in agricultural sector. few farmers have adopted organic and green fertilizer to increase soil fertility for mitigation the adverse impact of climate change in the agricultural sector. the empirical result also clearly enforces that adaptation strategies have a positive impact on agricultural production. hence, aforesaid practices can be considered as adaptation strategies to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change in the agricultural sector. furthermore, the empirical results indicate that maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and rainfall have a negative impact on agricultural production in the study area. the impact of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall were seemed positive on agricultural production when farmers were applied different adaptation strategies such as change in showing time of crops, improve irrigation facilities, application of table 7. regression coefficients of climatic factor with agricultural production regression models linear regression log-linear non-linear number of obs. 240 240 240 f value 12.66 230.39 6.79 prob > f 0.000 0.000 0.000 r-squared 0.2129 0.8312 0.2287 adj. r-squared 0.1961 0.8276 0.195 mean vif 119.84 219.7 889.51 ramsey reset test for (dv) [f value] 0.07 1.22 1.66 ramsey reset test for (iv) [f value] 0.76 1.09 0.79 breusch-pagan / cook-weisberg test for heteroskedasticity [chi2] 167.54 9.16 251.74 cameron & trivedi’s decomposition of im-test 16.17 8.01 26.28 aic 6417.886 138.3228 6423.039 bic 6438.77 159.2066 6461.326 ap reg. coef. std. err. reg. coef. std. err. reg. coef. std. err. cvaaea 47557.66 32340.14 0.1052 0.098 35902.21 87774.03 (cvaaea)^2 –56.79336 18539.55 cvaamaxt 538533.9 2790006 –1.8505 0.712 –8889458 8703948 (cvaamaxt)^2 2.79e+07 2.43e+07 cvaamint 309695.4 1373392 1.7888 0.577 6303996 4414759 (cvaamint)^2 –1.10e+07 7475095 cvaapre –22618.4 23565.76 0.3006 0.178 74503.26 82422.12 (cvaapre)^2 –8941.018 7729.299 cvaarf 4389.973 34330.14 0.6657 0.265 –67738.63 94526.53 (cvaarf)2 6003.597 8127.961 con. coef. 5370.183 19154.23 9.4601 1.087 –18326.24 32917.95 source: author’s estimation. 54 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 01 | march 2022 fertilizer, hybrid varieties of seeds, wetting of seed before planting in soil, climate tolerate crops, and maintain intensity of inputs in farming. the empirical results also showed that family size, education level of farmers, annual income of farmers, arable land, irrigated area, cost of technology, appropriate technology, financial support for farmers from government and farmer’s adaptation strategies have a positive and significant contribution to increase agricultural production in gujarat. the estimate also indicates that agricultural production is expected to be declined by 1.85% due to 1% increase in maximum temperature. precipitation, minimum temperature and actual rainfall have a positive impact on agricultural production. the estimates demonstrate that agricultural production is expected to be improved by 1.78%, 0.30% and 0.67% as an increase of 1% increase in annual average minimum temperature, annual average precipitation and annual actual rainfall, respectively. it was also observed that climatic factors have a non-linear association with agricultural production. this study provides several policy suggestions which might be helpful for farmers and policy makers to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on agricultural production in gujarat. application of technology is useful to increase farmer’s income, water sustainability, soil quality and fertility, land productivity, and efficiency of agricultural inputs in farming. policy makers should implement water conservation and management plans to meet the irrigation requirement in cultivation and to maintain the agricultural sustainability. furthermore, small and medium land holding farmers were unable to use technology in cultivation due to their low economic capacity, low literacy and skills, weak understanding on technology, and high cost of technology. thus, the government should provide credit to the small and marginal farmers to increase their economic capacity to bear the high cost of technology and other inputs. agriculture entrepreneurs, agricultural universities, agricultural extension offices and agricultural cooperative societies should provide the training and technical supports to the farmers to increase their understanding on new technology and climate change related issues. collaboration of agriculture industries with farmers would be effective for farmers to cultivate a specific crop which provides them better return. farmers should grow commercial crops as per the needs of agriculture industries to maintain their profitability in the long-term. there is also a requirement to develop appropriate marketing of agricultural products to increase the farmer’s trust in agricultural production activities. this study develops the conceptual framework to assess the influence of climate change, technological change and other variables on agricultural production using farm level information in gujarat. also, it provides several policy proposals to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change in farming based on empirical findings. hence, the present study is a significant contribution in existing literature. though, the empirical finding of this study is based on eight districts of gujarat. despite that, the estimates of this study are crucial to develop climate action plans and agricultural development policies in gujarat. further research can be replicated in other districts of gujarat to check the consistency of this study. conflict of interest there is no conflict of interest. references [1] singh, s., awais, m., 2019. climate variability and rice production in north india: a review. economic affairs. 64(2), 425-429. 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[61] avelar-sosa, l., garcía-alcaraz, j.l., maldonado-macías, a.a., et al., 2018. application of structural equation modelling to analyse the impact of logistics services on risk perception, agility and customer service level. advances in production engineering & management. 13(2), 179-192. [62] taber, k.s., 2018. the use of cronbach’s alpha when developing and reporting research instruments in science education. research in science education. 48(1), 1273-1296. [63] astivia, o.l., zumbo, b.d., 2019. heteroskedasticity in multiple regression analysis: what it is, how to detect it and how to solve it with applications in r and spss. practical assessment, research & evaluation. 24(1), 1-16. [64] abdullahi, h.s., mahieddine, f., sheriff, r.e., 2015. technology impact on agricultural productivity: a review of precision agriculture using unmanned aerial vehicles. in: pillai p., hu y., otung i., giambene g. (eds) wireless and satellite systems, wisats 2015, lecture notes of the institute for computer sciences, social informatics and telecommunications engineering. 154(1), 388-400. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25479-1_29 [65] pingali, p., aiyar, a., abraham, m., et al., 2019. agricultural technology for increasing competitiveness of small holders. transforming food systems for a rising india, palgrave studies in agricultural economics and food policy, palgrave macmillan, cham. pp. 215-240. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-14409-8_9. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25479-1_29 62 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://journals.nasspublishing.com/index.php/rwae copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). 1. introduction oil seeds form a critical link in the global supply chain by virtue of their wide use—edible oil for consumers, livestock feed, oleochemicals for industrial use, biofuel for transportation, cosmetics and others [1]. among oil seeds, oil palm (elaeis guineensis) is not only the major source of edible oil consumed in the world but also a major ingredient in biofuel production. in addition, its byproduct, palm kernel meal, is a major livestock feed, especially in asian countries. the annual consumption of palm (and kernel) oil is 82.45 million metric tons, which is 39.43 percent of the global oil consumption [1]. palm oil is demanded in more than 150 countries but is commercially supplied by about 13 tropical countries.a not surprisingly, palm oil and related products are extensively traded across countries—according to the united states department of agriculture, usda [2], global oil palm imports (quantity) grew by more than 600 percent between 1988 and 2020. palm oil trade also carries high economic importance to major producers (indonesia and malaysia) and major consumers (china and india). that is, the livelihood of millions of smallholders and landless workers in indonesia and malaysia, which together contribute 84 percent of the global a malaysia, indonesia, nigeria, colombia, cote d’ivoire, papua new guinea, thailand, congo, kenya, liberia, brazil, guatemala, and mexico. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.859 received: 17 may 2023; received in revised form: 8 june 2023; accepted: 14 june 2023; published: 19 june 2023 citation: adhikari, s., poudel, d., gopinath, m., 2023. is policy greasing the wheels of global palm oil trade? research on world agricultural economy. 4(2), 859. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.859 *corresponding author: munisamy gopinath, department of agricultural and applied economics, university of georgia, athens, ga, 30602, usa; email: m.gopinath@uga.edu research article is policy greasing the wheels of global palm oil trade? shweta adhikari dikshit poudel munisamy gopinath* department of agricultural and applied economics, university of georgia, athens, ga, 30602, usa abstract: oil palm is the major source of edible oil and feedstock consumed in the world. this study examined the determinants of global palm oil trade with attention to the effects of trade policies using a gravity model, ppml estimator, and the data from 1988-2020. palm oil’s dramatic trade growth in recent years can be attributed to the economic growth of large countries, the proximity of partners and policies. trade agreements increased crude and refined palm oil trade by up to 8 and 4 percent of the global import value, respectively. further, the effects of policy changes due to covid-19 and the recent export ban in indonesia are also quantified. keywords: palm oil; gravity model; trade policy; covid-19; indonesia’s export ban http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.859 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.859 mailto:m.gopinath@uga.edu https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3963-3441 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6249-7548 63 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 production, as well as the composition of chinese and indian diets, are interlinked by the palm oil supply chain [3,4]. various factors have been cited as reasons for this surge in global palm oil trade: gross domestic product (gdp) growth of large emerging economies hungry for more protein in their diets (china and india)—for example, the organization for economic cooperation and development (oecd)—food and agriculture organization (fao) [5] found that per capita income growth raises the consumption of edible oil by 2.7 percent per annum between 20082017; price competitiveness relative to other edible oils such as soybean or rapeseed or canola oil (figure 1); and contiguity of producing, processing and consuming nations, mostly in asia [6,7]. likewise, palm oil offers a comparative advantage to producers because unit land of oil palm cultivation can produce more vegetable oil than any other crop [8]. also, increased plantation, productivity and land expansion programs in major exporting countries have narrowed the supply-side gap [9,10]. understanding the pattern of the global palm oil trade is critical, as noted above, for the food security and economic well-being of a large share of the global population. to date, most studies on the economics of palm oil and its trade have focused on one or a few major producing and/ or consuming regions [11-14]. therefore, the limited focus on understanding palm oil at the global scale obscures the important contribution of more than 100 free trade agreements (fta) specifying tariff and non-tariff measures (ntm) on the palm oil trade. in recent years, these policies and agreements have been buffeted by economic nationalism, sustainability concerns, and the covid-19 pandemic. consider the case of india, a major importer of palm oil primarily for food use. since 1994, india has adjusted its tariff rate to match global price movements of edible oil, swinging between mostly palm oil and occasionally soybean oil [6]. while holding the most-favored nation (mfn) rate at 100 percent, india’s applied tariffs on five association of southeast asian nations (asean) countries—indonesia, malaysia, the philippines, singapore, and thailand as part of the asean-india fta—ranged between 37.5 and 74 percent during 2010-2019 [15].b at b most favored nation tariff is a nondiscriminatory tariff charged on imports of all world trade organization (wto) members; asean countries: brunei, cambodia, indonesia, laos, malaysia, myanmar, the philippines, singapore, thailand, and vietnam. the peak of the covid-19 pandemic in 2020, india reduced its applied rate to 27.5 percent for a few months before reverting to 37.5 percent in early 2021 [16]. the effects of these trade policy changes, as noted before, have implications for international trade flows, and producers’ and consumers’ welfare, especially in large developing countries like indonesia and india [17,18]. in addition, the design of sustainable policies for the future of the palm oil sector requires that the welfare effects of trade policies are evaluated [8]. this study has two-fold objectives. first, it identifies the determinants of global palm oil trade with particular attention to trade policies. for this purpose, a structural gravity model is estimated using the poisson-pseudo maxfigure 1. major oilseeds prices trend (1989-2019). source: global economic prospects, 1989-2019. 64 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 imum likelihood estimator at a finer product level—a sixdigit harmonized system (hs)—during 1988-2019. by employing a gravity model of trade flows, commonly used in the international trade literature, this study captures the effect of policies on palm oil trade while controlling for a host of other determinants like population and income growth, and distance between trade partners and any other non-policy association among trading nations. second, this study identifies varying levels of tariffs (bound, mfn, applied and fta rates) by country pairs and over time for use in the estimation of the gravity model. the indepth attention to tariff rates allows for an assessment of the effects of recent trade policy changes attributable to covid-19 (india) and supply chain issues (indonesia). previewing the results, key gravity variables—economic size, distance, cultural proximity—are major drivers of the global palm oil trade. while policy barriers generally limit trade, bilateral and regional preferential agreements appeared to have alleviated the negative effects of such barriers on the palm oil trade. specifically, the estimates from the gravity model showed that a major set of trade agreements have been responsible for increasing crude and refined palm oil trade by up to 8 and 4 percent of the global import values, respectively. the paper proceeds as follows. section 2 discusses the theoretical gravity model followed by section 3 explaining the data used in the study, model selection, and estimation procedure. section 4 presents and discusses the results and estimates the actual effects of trade agreements in the context of the global palm oil trade. section 5 concludes. 2. method the traditional gravity equation specifies the monetary value of bilateral trade as a function of exporterand importer-specific characteristics including their size and proximity [19-21].c the multiplicative nature of the above specification allows estimation using natural logarithms of all variables. however, this standard way of estimation will yield biased coefficients because of zero trade flows (those observations will be deleted since the log of zero is undefined). zero trade flows are critical to assessing trade policy effects, especially for cases of thinner trade relationships that may arise with least developed countries or specific product lines. specifically, pervasive zero trade values lead to higher conditional variance than the condic theoretically, the gravity set-up requires intra-national flows, but such data are not available or plagued with significant measurement errors. so, in practice, the traditional gravity equation estimates partial direct effects as advocated by yotov et al. [19]. moreover, such specifications are appropriate at the six-digit hs product line, as in this study [20,22]. tional mean [23]. the poisson-pseudo-maximum likelihood (ppml) estimator is commonly employed for estimation since it retains the multiplicative theoretical structure of gravity models. ppml estimation is robust to alternative patterns of heteroskedasticity and allows the dependent variable to remain in levels (as opposed to logarithms), which permits the inclusion of zero trade flows in the estimation. following yotov [24], the ppml specification takes the generic form:  = exp  +  +  +  +  (1) where, ● i and j denote exporting and importing countries (i ≠ j), t denotes time in years from 1988 through 2019, ● yijt is the dependent variable (the monetary value of bilateral palm oil trade), ● xijt is the vector of explanatory variables with the corresponding parameter vector β to be estimated, ●  = exp  +  +  +  +  is the error term with mean independence, i.e., e [ = exp  +  +  +  +  | x] = 0, and ● δit,  = exp  +  +  +  +  and θij represent the importerand exportertime fixed effects, and pairwise fixed effects, respectively. previous research has employed economic size, physical distance, policy barriers, cultural, colonial and linguistic ties, memberships in organizations like world trade organization (wto), general agreement on tariffs and trade (gatt), special economic zones, and preferential agreements to represent xijt in equation (1) [24-26]. regarding fixed effects, anderson and van wincoop [27] noted that the trade between nations depends on the ease of access to the importer market by exporters given by (a) the direct bilateral resistance and (b) overall resistance to the rest of the world i.e., multilateral resistance. to identify these resistances, i.e. observable and unobservable heterogeneities noted by feenstra [28], beckman and arita [29] and others, the empirical literature has considered adding fixed effects (δit,  = exp  +  +  +  +  and θij) to equation (1). a critical issue in estimating equation (1), particularly with the inclusion of policy variables in xijt, is the possible endogeneity of regressors. some studies have acknowledged the difficulty in finding a good instrument set to address the endogeneity problem [30]. however, many studies find that the inclusion of fixed effects such as importer, exporter, time or their interactions can substantially reduce the omitted variables bias [30-32]. studies on the effects of trade policy (tariff and non-tariff) on aggregate or agricultural trade have employed fixed effects to account for both inward and outward sources of multilateral resistances and unobserved and unconstrained heterogeneity across each importer and exporter [26,30-32]. 65 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 3. data, model selection and estimation 3.1 data the data assembly begins with the most detailed product classification level—six-digit harmonized system (hs) classification—for 194 countries over the period of 1988-2019. trade data (imports in current us dollars) of refined palm oil, rpo (hs-151190), crude palm oil, cpo (hs-151110), and combined rpo and cpo referred to as po (hs-1511) are from the united nations commodity trade database [36]. with the focus on product lines and the large number of bilateral pairs over a long period of time, missing data issues are unavoidable. following the general practice of dealing with zero trade values, data for those pairs that do not trade with each other are filled with zero. the descriptive statistics with mean, deviations, and ranges are presented in table 1. the dynamic gravity dataset from the united states international trade commission (usitc) version 2 is the source for a majority of gravity variables: ● gdppc: gdp is the total nominal gross value of goods and services added by all the residents of the country along with added taxes minus any subsidies not included in the value. it is divided by population in the respective period to obtain gdp per capita. these data are primarily sourced from penn world table and world bank’s world development indicators (wdi) [37]. ● population: count of all the residents regardless of legal status or citizenship and is a mid-year estimate usually based on the national census. ● distance: it is measured based on the methodology developed by mayer and zignago (2011) [38]. it uses major cities of economic activity and their population for each pair of countries and averages the distance between the pairs weighted by the population. ● contiguity: it implies that the destination (importer) and origin (exporter) countries share a common border in a particular year. countries can be bordering rivers or a stretch of land to be contiguous to each other. ● regions: usitc distinguishes countries into the following 14 regions: africa, caribbean, central america, central asia, east asia, eurasia, europe, middle east, north america, pacific, south america, south asia, southeast asia, and southern pole. ● language: data from the central intelligence agency’s world factbook [39] are used to find commonly spoken languages. languages spoken within each country are broken down according to the population percentage speaking that language as their first language and then ordered according to prevalence. when a language is spoken in both countries, this table 1. descriptive statistics of the variables used (1988-2019). variables n mean sd min max trade value hs-151110 (usd) 1,016,858 222965.70 16600000 0 4280000000 trade value hs-151190 (usd) 1,016,858 233044.80 9794019 0 2500000000 trade value hs-1511 (usd) 1,016,858 377358.80 20100000 0 5200000000 gdp per capita importer (usd) 1,016,858 10418.49 18277.47 65.93 198418.30 gdp per capita exporter (usd) 1,016,858 10418.53 18277.47 65.93 198418.30 distance (kilometers) 1,016,858 7948.71 4522.32 75.82 19734.64 tariff hs-151110 (%) 54,139 12.53 18.52 0 204.42 tariff hs-151190 (%) 98,190 8.37 13.75 0 204.42 tariff hs-1511 (%) 9,271 16.28 25.01 0 204.42 fta hs-151110 = 1 1,016,858 0.004 0.06 0 1 fta hs-151190 = 1 1,016,858 0.05 0.21 0 1 fta hs-1511 = 1 1,016,858 0.001 0.03 0 1 contiguity = 1 1,016,858 0.02 0.13 0 1 common language = 1 1,016,858 0.36 0.48 0 1 same region = 1 1,016,858 0.16 0.36 0 1 note: hs-151110 and hs-151190 is the harmonized system code for crude palm oil (cpo) and refined palm oil (rpo) at the 6-digit level, and hs-1511 is the harmonized system code at the 4-digit level for cpo and rpo combined. tariff hs-151110, tariff hs151190 and tariff hs-1511 are the variables used in equation (2), and fta hs-151110 = 1, fta hs-151190 = 1 and fta hs-1511 = 1 are the variables used in equation (3). note that there are 190 exporters involved in the cpo trade and 194 importers (full sample) involved in the rpo trade. 66 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 dummy takes value one and zero otherwise. the missing gdp and population data, about 10 and 4 percent of the total number of observations respectively, are filled from the wdi dataset. other remaining missing data are filled using the previous years’ latest available data from within the dataset. once the missing values are filled in, there are 1,016,858 observations from combining the gravity and trade data. tariff data were not available for all the countries for each year from a single source. a number of sources are used to assemble tariff data. the mfn tariff data are sourced from the world bank database, which provides a simple average tariff rate for the years 1988-2014 [40]. to acquire data from the years after 2014, wto’s regional trade agreement (rta) database was used. the two databases (united nations conference on trade and development, unctad and wto) had a few overlapping years for a cross-check of mfn rates. after assembling the mfn tariff data, the next step involved getting applied tariff data that came in different forms: free trade agreements (fta), preferential trade agreements (pta), regional trade agreements, dutyfree tariff (dft) for least developed countries (ldcs) tariffs, and others. common tariffs applied by or on the same region such as the case of the eu and asean were accounted for by countries’ year of entry into such agreements. apart from the readily available data from wto’s rta portal, individual country documents were accessed for additional data and verification purposes. some of the tariff finders that aided the process, especially in the context of trade agreements are canada tariff finder, the fta tariff tool provided by the united states international trade administration, asean tariff finder, indian trade portal, new zealand foreign affairs and trade tariff finder, and australian fta portal [41-46]. table 2 gives an example of the indian cpo tariff schedule from the asean5—india trade agreement.d 3.2 model selection and estimation the final specification of the gravity model was arrived at after extensive tests on several dimensions detailed below. two alternative representations of the trade policy variable, the main focus of this study, yield equations (2) and (3) in the spirit of yotov [24], and yang and hillberry [47]: model a tradeijt = exp [β0 + α1 lntarif fijt + β1 lngdppcijt + β2 lndistanceijt + β3 contiguityijt (2) + β4 sameregionijt + β5 samelanguageijt + δit + γit ] + ϵijt model b tradeijt = exp [β0 + α2 ftaijt + β1 lngdppcijt + β2 lndistanceijt + β3 contiguityijt (3) + β4 sameregionijt + β5 samelanguageijt + δit + γit ] + ϵijt where, ● i and j denote exporting and importing countries (i ≠ j), t denotes time in years from 1988 through 2019, ● lngdppc: logarithm of the gdp per capita represents the size of participating economies; it is the ratio of the sum of gdps of importing and exporting countries and the sum of their population, ● lndistance: logarithm of the distance between the exporter and importer, ● lntariff: logarithm of tariff rate applied by importing country on the exporter, ● fta: free trade agreement which takes the value 1 when a trading pair signed a preferential agreement (within the sample period) and thereafter; otherwise it takes the value 0, ● contiguity: dummy variable which takes a value of 1 if the two countries are contiguous and zero otherwise, ● same region: dummy variable that takes the value of 1 if the two countries are in the same region; zero otherwise, table 2. asean-5—india bound, most favored nation and preferential tariff rate schedule. bound rate base mfn preferential rate imposed by india on asean-5 (indonesia, malaysia, the philippines, singapore, and thailand) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 300 100 76 72 68 64 60 56 52 44 37.5 source: association of southeast asian nations—india free trade area (aifta) schedule‐india to association of southeast asian nations 5 clmv, annex 1 c.f.r. (2011). a d association of southeast asian nations-5: indonesia, malaysia, philippines, singapore and thailand. d d　 67 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 ● same language: dummy variable that takes the value of 1 if some of the residents of exporter and importer countries speak the same language, and zero otherwise, ● α’s are estimated effect of trade policy (tariffs) on palm oil trade, which are the parameters of interest, and β’s are the coefficient estimates of the remaining variables, and ● δit,  = exp  +  +  +  +  and θij represent the importerand exportertime fixed effects, and pairwise fixed effects. first, several other trade facilitation variables—wto or gatt membership dummy, type of polity, political stability, environmental stringency, and others—were considered. data for these other variables were taken from the usitc dynamic gravity dataset as well as other sources such as the world bank. many of these variables were highly collinear, especially with the fixed effects included in equation (1)’s estimation. second, alternative functional forms (log, levels, reciprocal, polynomial) were tested using likelihood ratio (lr) tests and akaike and bayesian information criteria (aic-bic). lr tests along with theoretical consistency of gravity effects aided in the final selection of the linear-log model as shown in equations (2) and (3). continuous independent variables (distance, gdppc and tariff) have been transformed into natural logarithms while categorical ones are retained in levels. the fta dummy variable in equation (3) is created to capture the broader impacts of trade liberalization measures of the agreements, not just the tariff cuts [31]. third, the dependent variable (import) was specified in levels, i.e., nominal value. yang and hillberry [47] report that the statistical inference from the lr test of the ppml estimator is sensitive to data scaling of the dependent variable affecting the test of the significance of the model as well as any restrictions placed on its coefficients. the lr test that all coefficients are equal to zero is conducted using two different scales of a dependent variable (in the standard dollar and in million dollars), but the hypothesis was rejected in both instances. fourth, as noted at the end of section 2, the identification of tariff effects on palm oil trade requires the inclusion of fixed effects [21,28]. many studies on agricultural trade also control for the endogeneity by including importerand exporter-time fixed effects, and/or pairwise fixed effects.e after extensive specification tests using all e disdier and maretter [34] include importer, exporter and time-fixed effects (fe) separately to measure the impacts of nontariff measures (sanitary and phytosanitary plus technical barriers) on agricultural trade. hejazi et al. [33] include importer, exporter and product fes separately to estimate the impact of phytosanitary policy on fruits and vegetables trade. wang et al. [32] include country-year and country-product fes while studying the effect of certification policy on imports. beckman three pair-wise fixed effects, equations (2) and (3) include time-varying directional (importer-year and exporter-year) fixed effects. that is, they account for time-varying sources of multilateral resistances and unobserved and unconstrained heterogeneity across each importer and exporter [27]. unfortunately, some variables that vary by exporter but are constant across importers and time or that vary by the importer but constant across exporters and time showed collinearity with the pair-wise fixed effects. such collinearity led to the exclusion of one set of fixed effects, importer-exporter pair-wise fixed effects, as well as the combining of gdp per capita of importing and exporting pairs to arrive at gdp per capita (lngdppc). finally, the study considered inward measures only, i.e., barriers applied by the importing country to the exporting nations, only. data on export policies are not consistently available, and those effects are likely included in the exporter-time fixed effects. the ppml method of estimation was chosen over traditional approaches, e.g., ordinary least squares, and the inbuilt robust standard errors are used throughout. as mentioned earlier, the ppml estimator can capture the information in the zero trade flows, accounts for heteroskedasticity and allows the estimation of the model with a large set of fixed effects considered [19].f while ppml estimation of equation (2), model a, directly yields elasticities to calculate the tariff effect on palm oil trade patterns, and the elasticity of fta dummy will be computed for equation (3), model b [16,46,47]. 4. results and discussion recall that the study aims to identify the determinants of global palm oil trade with particular attention to trade policies. this section, first, describes a host of determinants from the gravity model. then, the impacts of tariffs and ftas are discussed. 4.1 gravity model the results of the fitted version of the ppml-estimated gravity model are presented in table 3. the econometric specification of equations (2) and (3), after the series of validation and sensitivity analysis noted in the previous section, allowed for a variety of characteristics to affect bilateral trade between the countries. columns 1, 2, and arita [29] include importer and exporter fes separately to examine the effect of non-tariff measures and tariff-rate-quota on agricultural trade. similarly, upon including country-sector, country-year, and sectoryear fes, the exogeneity was assured in harding and javorcik [48] while studying the effect of investment promotion strategies on foreign direct investment (fdi) inflows. f the poisson distribution is the discrete probability distribution, appropriate for the large proportion of zero in the trade data. 68 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 and 3 of table 3 present the results of equation (2), i.e., model a, which uses the actual tariff rate for cpo, rpo, and po employing 54,139, 98,190, and 9,271 observations, respectively. likewise, columns 4, 5, and 6 present the result of equation (3), i.e., model b, which uses the fta dummy employing 1,016,849 observations in each column. all columns control for the importer-time and exporter-time fixed effects and present robust standard errors. most estimates of the gravity model for all three products yielded statistically significant coefficients with signs consistent with the predictions of the underlying economic theory. recall that the coefficients of the (continuous) explanatory variables are elasticities. the elasticities for categorical variables are computed and they are kept beside each coefficient. the result from models a and b are consistent throughout with few exceptions. the following description focused primarily on model a’s results, but relates them to those of model b wherever appropriate. the coefficient estimate of the logarithm of (combined) gdp per capita is positive and statistically significant for all three products: cpo, rpo, and po. that is, all else constant, an increase in the combined gdp per capita by 1 percent increases trade by 0.76, 0.94 and 1.24 percent, respectively for cpo, rpo and po (table 3, columns 1, 2 and 3). the seminal article on ppml estimation—by silva and tenreyro [26]—affirmed the positive effect of importers’ and exporters’ gdp on trade. wang [51] also found a positive effect of gdp on the palm, rapeseed, sunflower, and soybean oil trade. likewise, the distance variable has a negative coefficient, which is statistically significant in all three cases. an increase in distance by 1 percent decreases trade by 1.06, 1.13 and 0.73 percent, respectively. many studies have found that geographical distance discourages trade between countries [16,48]. in addition to distance, tariffs negatively affect trade flows across countries for all three products. the highest response to a 1 percent increase in the tariff rate, according to model a in columns 1, 2, and 3, is observed in the cpo case (0.75 percent), followed by those of po (0.66 percent) and rpo (0.45 percent). alternatively, fta effects, according to model b in columns 4, 5 and 6, are higher for po (3.276 percent), followed by rpo (1.370 percent) and cpo (0.853 percent). section 4.3 below employs the tariff effects estimated here to quantify the actual impact of trade agreements with further detail.g in table 3 under model a, countries that are contiguous trade more of cpo (0.74 percent) and rpo (0.545 g another version of model b using only the sample of model a, observations with actual tariff rates available (restricted sample size), is shown in appendix 1. the results are consistent except for fta effects on cpo trade. percent), but the effect appears muted at the aggregated po level in column 3. it may arise with the simultaneous export of cpo and re-import of rpo by several southeast asian economies. however, under model b, with the higher observations, sharing a national border dictates the increment in the aggregated po trade by 0.895 percent (column 6), which is also statistically significant. similarly, countries that share a common language also trade more—by 1.563 for cpo and 1.061 for rpo (columns 1 and 2, respectively)—with each other, given the concentration of production in south-east asia. fidrmuc and fidrmuc [53] and wang [51] also suggest that if a common language is spoken by even a small share of the two countries population, more trade can arise with easy communication of contract terms. finally, the same region dummy has a negative but insignificant effect on cpo trade under model a (column 1), but is negative and highly significant under model b (column 4). consistent and significant under both models, countries in the same region increase rpo trade by up to 4.20 percent (column 2). part of the explanation may lie in the trade pattern shown in figure 2, i.e., globally, all regions import cpo mostly from asia (1988-2019). moreover, some of the intra-regional trade is likely picked up by the relatively larger contiguity-effect for cpo. the above results are well aligned with prior literature as well as the real-world context. the positive gdp coefficient corroborates that the demand for major palm oil players—which are some of the world’s largest and fastestgrowing economies—has increased trade. india, china, and the eu together accounted for more than 78 percent of the total global imports of palm oil in 2019 [36]. as frankel, stein and wei [54] noted, gdp captures the purchasing power, which led to an increase in the protein-based diet in developing countries like india and china in recent years. in the eu case, the launch of renewable energy directive (red) in 2009 increased the usage of palm oil in biofuels to meet sustainability goals. on the other hand, indonesia and malaysia are large exporters likely driven by comparative advantage and economies of scale [55]. while distance has a negative effect on trade in all three products, contiguity appears to play a distinct role. contiguous countries that extensively trade palm oil are indonesia and papua new guinea, guatemala and mexico, thailand and malaysia, singapore and malaysia, peru and colombia, and honduras and guatemala. moreover, significant vertical trade between singapore (rpo) and indonesia (cpo) affirms the importance of contiguity in the palm oil trade. while the topographical requirement of oil palm (mostly concentrated in the tropical region) has enabled inter-regional crude palm trade, refineries for 69 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 table 3. gravity model estimates for crude (cpo), refined (rpo) and overall palm oil (po) trade, 1988-2019. variables↓ with actual tariff with fta dummy (full sample) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) cpo (hs-151110) rpo (hs-151190) po (hs-1511) cpo (hs-151110) rpo (hs-151190) po (hs-1511) coefficient elasticity coefficient elasticity coefficient elasticity coefficient elasticity coefficient elasticity coefficient elasticity ln gdppc 0.755*** 0.755 0.936*** 0.936 1.244*** 1.244 0.473*** 0.473 0.684*** 0.684 0.626*** 0.626 (0.115) (0.0854) (0.0911) (0.0984) (0.0570) (0.0762) ln distance –1.056*** –1.056 –1.133*** –1.133 –0.733*** –0.733 –1.446*** –1.446 –1.184*** -1.184 –1.104*** –1.104 (0.118) (0.0967) (0.110) (0.0635) (0.0521) (0.0528) ln tariff hs-151110 –0.755*** -0.755 (0.226) ln tariff hs-151190 –0.448*** –0.448 (0.0645) ln tariff hs-1511 –0.660*** –0.660 (0.102) fta hs-151110 = 1 0.617** 0.853 (0.293) fta hs-151190 = 1 0.863*** 1.370 (0.0947) fta hs-1511 = 1 1.453*** 3.276 (0.183) contiguity = 1 0.554* 0.740 0.435*** 0.545 0.0989 0.104 1.211*** 2.357 0.553*** 0.738 0.639*** 0.895 (0.319) (0.151) (0.138) (0.362) (0.0962) (0.154) common language = 1 0.941*** 1.563 0.723*** 1.061 1.068*** 1.910 0.528*** 0.696 0.918*** 1.504 0.838*** 1.312 (0.112) (0.0854) (0.0782) (0.0940) (0.0600) (0.0578) same region = 1 –0.369 –0.309 1.648*** 4.197 0.541*** 0.718 –2.452*** –0.914 1.716*** 4.562 –0.155 –0.144 (0.726) (0.183) (0.183) (0.521) (0.108) (0.231) constant 24.12*** 20.86*** 16.99*** 27.31*** 21.24*** 22.31*** (1.502) (1.053) (1.260) (1.007) (0.691) (0.757) importer-time fe yes yes yes yes yes yes exporter-time fe yes yes yes yes yes yes pseudo-r-squared 0.971 0.958 0.963 0.940 0.947 0.932 log likelihood –2.67 × 1010 –2.76 × 1010 –2.75 × 1010 –1.02 × 1011 –8.16 × 1010 –1.75 × 1011 n 54,139 98,190 9,271 1,016,849 1,016,849 1,016,849 robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. note: the table presents results from the poisson-pseudo-maximum likelihood (ppml) estimator. actual tariff rate of cpo, rpo and po is the parameter of interest for columns 1, 2 and 3; fta dummies (taking 1 if a particular transaction is under fta) for cpo, rpo and po is the parameter of interest for remaining columns. all the equations control for the importer-time and exporter-time fixed effects and standard errors are obtained from the inbuilt robust procedure. columns 4, 5 and 6 use full samples, and columns 7, 8 and 9 in appendix 1 using only samples that have the actual tariff rates available (restricted sample size). tariff hs-151110, tariff hs-151190 and tariff hs-1511 are the variables used in equation (2), and fta hs-151110 = 1, fta hs-151190 = 1 and fta hs-1511 = 1 are the variables used in equation (3). elasticity for the categorical variables is obtained as (ecoefficient – 1). 70 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 rpo are located throughout the world. for example, refining, bleaching and deodorizing cpo are mainly done by companies like unilever and nestle, which have processing plants located across the world [56]. as noted in the introduction, trade policies appear to change more frequently in many countries depending on internal and external events. while india is a case in point, others such as nigeria and fiji have also directly altered tariff rates to adjust to domestic market conditions, and the eu trade in palm oil, initially driven by red, has taken on a revised target, i.e., zero by 2030, on the use of palm oil in biofuel production [6,54,55].h section 4.3 below takes a closer look at the effect of trade agreements. prior to that, an attempt is made below to validate the tariff effects estimated in the gravity models using the recent covid-19 pandemic experience in the indian context. also, the sensitivity of palm oil trade to policies is demonstrated using the impact of indonesia’s recent export ban. h in fiji, where the oil is mostly used in food, imports increased by tenfold between 2000 to 2009. to control unexpected increases in obesity (i.e., the high saturated fat content of cpo), the tariff rate was increased from 15 to 32 percent in 2012 [59]. 4.2 covid-19, indonesia’s export ban, and palm oil trade palm oil trade appears sensitive to trade policy changes on the exporter as well as the importer side. to cope with the covid-19-related price increase of agricultural products, india reduced its palm oil tariff by 10 percentage points in 2020, from the pre-pandemic rate of 37.5 percent on imports from asean-5 countries. the lower tariff came into effect in november 2020. using the cpo tariff coefficient (elasticity) of –0.75 percent in table 3, this study estimated that india’s import value should have increased by 20.13 percent.i given the 2019 value of imports from malaysia and indonesia ($3.28 billion), the lower tariff translated into a $660 million increase in import value. an article from a major indian newspaper reported that the cpo import jumped by 24 percent in the first quarter of 2020-2021 [61]. i out of india’s total edible oil imports, cpo contributes 57 percent in 2020-2021, which is 12.8 percent higher than in 2019-2020 [60]. note that the change in tariffs from 37.5 to 27.5 percent equals a –26.60 percent change. multiplying that with the cpo tariff elasticity gives 20.13 percent. figure 2. total palm oil trade flow from 1988 to 2019 between regions. note: outer ring is crude palm oil, and the inner ring is refined palm oil. source: world map—istock by getty images; data—united nations (2020). 71 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 another recent event affecting the global palm oil trade is the export ban in indonesia (april 28, 2022). with indonesia accounting for 45 (70) percent of cpo (rpo) imports, india again, faced major disruptions. in november 2021, india reduced the tariff on rpo from 32.5 to 17.5 percent owing to supply chain issues and food price inflation [58,59].j using the rpo tariff coefficient (elasticity) of –0.45 percent from table 3, this study estimated that india’s import value should have increased by 20.67 percent. given the 2020 value of rpo imports from indonesia ($82.64 million), the lower tariff translated into an increase in import value of more than $17 million. however, the bilateral trade was suspended for a few weeks until the ban was lifted after three weeks.k 4.3 trade agreements and global palm oil trade under the original gatt and now wto, countries impose mfn tariffs on each other but are also allowed exceptions as part of a separate agreement (regional or preferential) with other countries. to interact preferentially, countries form ‘blocs’ of economic partnership based on geographical proximity, policy alignment and other factors. by signing such agreements countries aim for better market access including trade facilitation, harmonization of sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical barriers, and protection of intellectual property rights [64]. many studies have shown that such preferential trading systems increase trade flows [65]. trade agreements have been one of the key focus areas of major palm oil trading countries. between 2005 and 2020, major exporters—indonesia, malaysia, thailand, colombia, papua new guinea—have signed ftas or ptas with some of the major importers—india, china, european union countries, united states—to reduce tariffs and increase trade flows. few studies have evaluated the effects of such trade agreements collectively or individually in the context of palm oil. consistently, table 3 (columns 4, 5 and 6) shows that having fta can significantly increase the palm oil trade.l the positive impact is highest at the aggregated scale, and in rpo followed by cpo. an exception is wang [51], who found fta partners traded 77 percent more palm oil than those who did not have such agreements. this study, by focusing on product j the change in tariffs from 32.5 to 17.5 percent equals a –46.15 percent change. multiplying that with the rpo tariff elasticity gives 20.67 percent. k starting january 1, 2023, indonesia is tightening po exports by allowing fewer shipments overseas—exporters are allowed to ship six times their domestic supply volume which is two times less than that allowed until 2022 [63]. l harada and nishitateno [66] report that the import tariff reduction through fta has increased the wine trade volume in east asia. lines and directly estimating the tariff elasticity can identify the important role of each of the trade agreements on the palm oil trade. tables 4 and 5 show the effects of major ptas and ftas on cpo and rpo, respectively. asean-india fta (aifta) came into effect on january 1, 2010. table 4 shows that the average mfn tariff on cpo imposed by india on asean countries and asean on india before the trade agreement came into effect is 60.37 percent, while the aifta tariff is 39.89 percent. the difference between these two tariffs (–33.92 percent) multiplied by the tariff elasticity (–0.75) and further multiplied by the prior year’s (2009) trade value ($2751.35 million) quantifies the effect of aifta on cpo trade. table 4 shows that aifta is responsible for more than $699.94 million of trade increase in 2010 between asean and india, which is about 3.93 percent of the global cpo trade value. similarly, asean trade in goods agreement (atiga) which was implemented in 2010 was responsible for an increase of more than $583.09 million in palm oil trade within asean countries (3.28 percent of global cpo trade). south asian free trade agreement (safta) that came into force in 2004 was signed by seven south asian countries—india, pakistan, bangladesh, sri lanka, nepal, bhutan and maldives—and later joined by afghanistan. table 4 shows that the mfn tariff among these countries averaged 59.51 percent, while the safta rate was lower at 25.16 percent. thus, safta was responsible for an increase of trade value by 0.44 percent among south asian countries, but it only yielded a smaller 0.03 percent boost to global palm oil trade compared to aifta or atiga. likewise, colombia which is one of the major cpo exporters signed an fta with the united states in 2012. before the fta, the average mfn tariff between these two nations was 10 percent, which was completely removed in 2012. however, the u.s.-colombia pact was responsible for only a 0.01 percent increase in global cpo trade. table 5 shows the four major trade agreements in the rpo context. atiga is responsible for about 1.44 percent of global rpo trade. eu has trade agreements with several pacific states, which supply palm oil and palm kernel oil. papua new guinea, one of the top exporters to the eu among pacific states, maintains a duty-free agreement with the eu for major agricultural products including palm oil [67]. eu-pacific states fta between papua new guinea and eu implemented in 2009 increased rpo trade by more than $140 million, accounting for 1.01 percent of global rpo trade. aifta is also responsible for a significant increase in total rpo trade (0.70 percent). although the eu-colombia pair had a 36.22 percent difference between mfn and fta tariff, trade created by their agreement accounted for about 0.01 percent only of global rpo trade. 72 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 overall, it suggests that having a preferential trade agreement, fta in this case, for a specific commodity can increase trade on all three products, significantly. nonetheless, the net increment in palm oil trade under such trade agreements depends on the magnitude of tariff reduction for specific product lines. with trade policies changing more frequently depending on internal and external events, they potentially cause a steep decline in the global trade of oil palm. these trade-inhibiting measures will likely increase the cost of producers, lower market table 4. crude palm oil (cpo): effects of preferential agreements on trade. preferential agreement year mfn tariff fta tariff percent difference between fta and mfn tariffs elasticity elasticity × percent change prior year trade value ($ million) trade increase attributable to fta ($ million) global trade in the year of fta was implemented ($ million) fta induced trade, percent asean-india free trade agreement (aifta) 2010 60.37 39.89 –33.92 –0.75 25.44 2751.35 699.94 17789.00 3.93 asean trade in goods and agreement (atiga) 2010 21.50 1.07 –95.02 –0.75 71.27 818.17 583. 09 17789.00 3.28 south asian free trade agreement (safta) 2004 59.51 25.16 –57.72 –0.75 43.29 2.23 0.97 3632.75 0.03 us-colombia 2012 10.00 0.00 –100.00 –0.75 75.00 4.20 3.17 23652.26 0.01 note: the estimated elasticities are obtained from table 3 using equation (2). table 5. refined palm oil (rpo): effects of preferential agreements on trade. preferential agreement year mfn tariff fta tariff percent difference between fta and mfn tariffs elasticity elasticity × percent change prior year trade value ($ million) trade increase attributable to fta ($ million) global trade in the year of fta was implemented ($ million) fta induced trade, percent asean trade in goods and agreement (atiga) 2010 14.80 3.39 –77.09 –0.45 34.69 488.48 169.05 11776.43 1.44 eupacific states fta (png) 2009 12.80 1.98 –84.53 –0.45 38.04 369.86 140.39 13879.26 1.01 asean-india free trade agreement (aifta) 2010 55.86 42.23 –24.40 –0.45 10.98 748.26 82.01 11776.43 0.70 eu-colombia 2012 16.4 10.46 –36.22 –0.45 16.30 8.16 1.33 17193.95 0.01 note: the estimated elasticities are obtained from table 3 using equation (2). 73 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 prices, and hence, negatively affect the welfare large number of workers engaged in palm and palm oil production, processing and distribution. 5. conclusions despite concentrated production, worldwide consumption via international trade has made palm oil an indispensable link in the global supply chain. this study examined the determinants of global palm oil trade with particular attention to the effect of trade policies, while controlling for a host of other determinants like population and income growth, and distance between trade partners and any non-policy association among trading nations. among the key determinants, gdp per capita positively affected palm oil trade in the aggregate as well as its constituents: crude and refined palm oil (cpo and rpo). distance between countries—often a proxy for transportation costs and implications for infrastructure policies— has negative effects on the import of both cpo and rpo. likewise, having a common language or being contiguous to a trade partner increased the palm oil trade. as expected, the tariff of the importing country has a significant negative effect on cpo, rpo and aggregated palm oil trade. to reduce barriers to trade, countries have established bilateral or regional preferential agreements. the effect of having free trade agreements results in significantly higher palm oil trade than that in the absence of such agreements. the estimates from the gravity model allowed for an evaluation of the effects of a selected set of trade agreements. this study found that some of the major trade agreements have been responsible for increasing crude and refined palm oil trade by up to 8 and 4 percent of the global import values, respectively, over the past two decades. also, the estimated gravity model allowed a simulation of recent policy changes either expanding or limiting trade. for example, recent liberalization by india, due to the covid-19 pandemic, is found to have increased palm oil trade by up to 20 percent of india’s import value. frequent trade-limiting policy changes will have large negative effects on the global palm oil trade with implications for consumer welfare in india and china, major importers, and the jobs and income of millions in indonesia and malaysia, the major exporters. author contributions conceptualization: adhikari and gopinath; developed methodology: adhikari and poudel; data curation: adhikari and poudel; formal analysis and tests: adhikari, poudel and gopinath; wrote original drafts: adhikari; review and edits of the manuscript: adhikari, poudel and gopinath; supervision: gopinath. funding this research was funded by the agricultural experiment station at the university of georgia. data availability data used in this study are available in the public domain. data were accessed primarily from penn world table, world bank’s world development indicators, wto’s regional trade agreement (rta) database, and central intelligence agency’s world factbook. for specific cases, canada tariff finder, united states international trade administration (usita) free trade agreement (fta) tariff tool, asean tariff finder, indian trade portal, new zealand foreign affairs and trade tariff finder, and australian fta portal are used. more detailed information is provided in the data section of the article. conflict of interest all authors disclosed no conflict of interest. references [1] oil crops yearbook [internet]. economic research service, united states department of 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[65] rose, a.k., 2004. do we really know that the wto increases trade? american economic review. 94(1), 98-114. doi: https://doi.org/10.1257/000282804322970724 [66] harada, k., nishitateno, s., 2021. measuring trade creation effects of free trade agreements: evidence from wine trade in east asia. journal of asian economics. 74, 101308. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101308 [67] p a p u a n e w g u i n e a tr a d e p o l i c y f r a m e w o r k [internet]. division on international trade and commodities, united nations conference on trade and development; 2006. available from: https://unctad. org/system/files/official-document/ditctncd200310_ en.pdf appendices appendix 1. gravity model estimates for cpo, rpo and po trade, 1988-2019. variables↓ with fta dummy (model b) with restricted sample size (8) (9) (10) cpo (hs-151110) rpo (hs-151190) po (hs-1511) coefficient elasticity coefficient elasticity coefficient elasticity ln gdppc 0.763*** 0.763 0.940*** 0.940 1.186*** 1.186 (0.116) (0.0861) (0.0902) ln distance –1.057*** –1.057 –1.109*** –1.109 –0.644*** –0.644 (0.128) (0.0947) (0.113) fta hs-151110 = 1 0.233 0.262 (0.489) fta hs-151190 = 1 0.790*** 1.203 (0.172) fta hs-1511 = 1 0.536** 0.709 (0.246) https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/report/downloadreportbyfilename?filename=biofuels%20annual_the%20hague_eu-28_7-15-2019.pdf https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/report/downloadreportbyfilename?filename=biofuels%20annual_the%20hague_eu-28_7-15-2019.pdf https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/report/downloadreportbyfilename?filename=biofuels%20annual_the%20hague_eu-28_7-15-2019.pdf https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/blexplainer/bl-explainer-what-indonesias-palm-oil-export-ban-means-for-india/article65366502.ece https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/blexplainer/bl-explainer-what-indonesias-palm-oil-export-ban-means-for-india/article65366502.ece https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/blexplainer/bl-explainer-what-indonesias-palm-oil-export-ban-means-for-india/article65366502.ece https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/blexplainer/bl-explainer-what-indonesias-palm-oil-export-ban-means-for-india/article65366502.ece https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/palm-oil-import-up-soft-oil-down-marginally-in-nov-jan-quarter-of-2021-22/article33819733.ece https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/palm-oil-import-up-soft-oil-down-marginally-in-nov-jan-quarter-of-2021-22/article33819733.ece https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/palm-oil-import-up-soft-oil-down-marginally-in-nov-jan-quarter-of-2021-22/article33819733.ece https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/palm-oil-import-up-soft-oil-down-marginally-in-nov-jan-quarter-of-2021-22/article33819733.ece https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indonesia-mps-seek-palm-oil-export-ban-review-industry-warns-storage-2022-05-19/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indonesia-mps-seek-palm-oil-export-ban-review-industry-warns-storage-2022-05-19/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indonesia-mps-seek-palm-oil-export-ban-review-industry-warns-storage-2022-05-19/ https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/indonesia-to-tighten-palm-oil-exports-from-january-1-to-ensure-supply/articleshow/96612802.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/indonesia-to-tighten-palm-oil-exports-from-january-1-to-ensure-supply/articleshow/96612802.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/indonesia-to-tighten-palm-oil-exports-from-january-1-to-ensure-supply/articleshow/96612802.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/indonesia-to-tighten-palm-oil-exports-from-january-1-to-ensure-supply/articleshow/96612802.cms 77 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 variables↓ with fta dummy (model b) with restricted sample size (8) (9) (10) cpo (hs-151110) rpo (hs-151190) po (hs-1511) contiguity = 1 0.595* 0.813 0.488*** 0.629 0.181 0.198 (0.332) (0.155) (0.136) common language = 1 0.946*** 1.575 0.732*** 1.079 1.066*** 1.904 (0.111) (0.0859) (0.0792) same region = 1 –0.332 –0.283 1.652*** 4.217 0.592*** 0.808 (0.767) (0.181) (0.189) constant 22.01*** 19.35*** 14.88*** (1.466) (1.066) (1.267) importer-time fe yes yes yes exporter-time fe yes yes yes pseudo-r-squared 0.970 0.958 0.963 log likelihood –2.70 × 1010 –2.77 × 1010 –2.81 × 1010 n 54,139 98,190 9,271 robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. table appendix 1 continued 52 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: daria loginova, agroscope, socioeconomics, tänikon 1, ettenhausen, 8356, switzerland; email: daria.loginova@agroscope.admin.ch received: 27 july 2022; received in revised form: 17 august 2022; accepted: 23 august 2022; published: 1 september 2022 citation: loginova, d., 2022. assessing the short-term effect of exchange rate liberalisation on food import prices: the regression discontinuity in time employed for russian food markets in 2014. research on world agricultural economy. 3(3), 612. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i3.612 research article assessing the short-term effect of exchange rate liberalisation on food import prices: the regression discontinuity in time employed for russian food markets in 2014 daria loginova* agroscope, socioeconomics, tänikon 1, ettenhausen, 8356, switzerland abstract: this study summarises the main agricultural policies in russia during 2014 and uses a sharp regression discontinuity design over time and data from the international trade centre to estimate the short-term effects of exchange rate liberalisation in november 2014 on import prices in russian food markets. the sharp regression discontinuity design over time allowed an expost analysis of the short-term causal effects of the intervention on food import prices and distinguishing the effect of exchange rate liberalisation between product groups and from other interventions without using data from control regions, products and suppliers. significant upward shifts in import prices were found for pig products, fish and cheese. keywords: exchange rate liberalization; food import price; sharp regression discontinuity over time; russia doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i3.612 1. introduction exchange rate policies are used for regulating the economies and gaining macro-stability and economic development [1,2]. exchange rate liberalisation is often followed by a short-term increase in the volatility of exchange rates [3], which may destabilise international trade [4-6] and prices [7]. estimating the effects of exchange rate policies on food prices is hampered by the complexity of applied agricultural policies, diversity at the level of market protection, quality and consumer preferences, seasonality and weather conditions. the effects of rouble depreciation on the russian agricultural sector have often been mentioned in the studies of other interventions on russian food markets in 2014—permanent food bans in february, sanctions, the food embargo and the rouble crisis [8-10]. most of these studies discuss the possible contribution of rouble depreciation (figure 1) to trade; however, these studies leave this effect unassessed. as kiselev, shagaida, uzun and tyll, among others, pointed out, russian rouble depreciation in 2014 could cause changes in russian domestic food prices [11-13]. therefore, more attention should be paid https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4856-9648 53 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 to analysing the effect of exchange rate liberalisation on food prices in russia in the autumn of 2014. the hypothesis of the present study is that the exchange rate liberalisation in russia in 2014 destabilised food import prices in the short term and that these effects were diverse across product groups. this hypothesis is consistent with previous research (see the studies in section 2 and appendix a). therefore, the empirical strategy of the present study is to examine the food and trade policy in russia in 2014 and to distinguish the effect of exchange rate liberalisation on food import prices from other policies. to quantify the short-term effect of the exchange rate regime change on the stability of food import prices in the russian food markets in 2014, the present study processes disaggregated food import price data issued by the international trade centre [14] and applies a sharp robust regression discontinuity design (rdd; [15-17]). the key assumption for using the rdd in this study is that prices observed close to the time of exchange rate liberalisation will be perfectly comparable, except that some prices experience floating exchange rates (treatment group) while others experience regulated exchange rates. following the definition of treatment effect in rdd, ‘price stability’ in the present study is understood as the absence of significant price discontinuity (treatment effect) at the time of the intervention. background information on food policies in russia and a review of previous studies are presented in section 2. the data and the procedure for assessing the intervention are described in section 3. section 4 provides the results, and section 5 concludes the study. 2. agricultural policy and market interventions in russia in 2014 production growth and self-sufficiency were political goals in russia long before the trade restrictions and crisis in 2014. investments in agriculture from 2003 to 2005 provided reinforcements for agricultural producers in sectors where large-scale agriculture was efficient ─ namely, in the russian pork, poultry and grain sectors [18,19]. the russian food policy has aimed to maintain self-sufficiency and food security since 2010 (doctrine, approved by presidential decree n120 of 30.01.2010 and n20 of 21.01.2020 [20,21]). moreover, before 2020, russian food security was defined as import independence [12,22]. only in 2020 did the doctrine redefine food security in russian legislation as physical and economic access to food. on 13 january 2014, russia started issuing licences for the import of dairy whey, cattle, pork and poultry within the established tariff quotas for 2014 (russian government regulations n1259 and n1260 of 26.12.2013). from 27 to 31 january 2014, various permanent trade restrictions were imposed on selected countries and foods, namely fish imports from vietnam, various products from australia, austria, belgium, bulgaria, china, estonia, germany and italy, and various products from several selected enterprises in austria, canada, china, moldova, paraguay and the usa [23]. by the end of january 2014, russia closed its market to eu live pigs, pork and other related products (called the pork ban in the present article). the pork ban was investigated in the literature by, among others, cheptea, gaigné, götz and jaghdani [9,24] with using structural gravity and dcc-mgarch models, respectively. de facto, in the fifth week of 2014, russia figure 1. the average weekly rub/usd exchange rate in 2014 54 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 permanently banned various food imports. these permanent bans might lead to trivial decreases in import volumes and, therefore, increases in prices. the causal identification and assessment of these effects are hampered by a variety of restrictions. international economic sanctions were imposed on russia starting in march 2014 and were further tightened throughout 2014 [8]. these decisions were related to the situations in ukraine and crimea and did not target food markets. however, in august 2014, the president of the russian federation introduced the food embargo as an ‘anti-sanctions’ measure. studies claim that, through the food embargo, the government restricted physical and economic access to affordable food in domestic markets [12,22], which had negative consequences for real household incomes in russia [25-29]. generally, not all countries that supported the sanctions and not all food imports were immediately banned under the embargo. after the introduction of the embargo, some imports were substituted; for instance, beef imports from the eu were substituted with frozen beef from brazil [30]. after the embargo, milk was supplied mostly by belarus, and vegetables and fruits were supplied by central and western asian countries [14]. later, production volumes increased. in 2015, russia still represented 0.2% and 2% of the world’s agricultural export and import volumes, respectively [31]. both the sanctions and the embargo were prolonged each year for the following year. therefore, the embargo and sanctions have been a topic of great interest in the literature since their imposition. many previous food and trade studies have investigated and quantified only the embargo and not the other shocks of 2014. in particular, they analysed and quantified the effects from the perspective of the trade losses of ex-trade partners because a wide range of countries were affected and good-quality trade data were available [32-37]. studies on embargo effects are still emerging and contribute to the literature on the quantified effects of food bans [9,10,38-41]. in parallel to the aforementioned policies, the russian rouble to us dollar (rub/usd) exchange rate has increased sharply since july 2014 and since 1 november 2014 has become free-floating by the decision of the central bank of the russian federation [42]. the further development of the exchange rate and its extreme volatility were later addressed as the russian rouble crisis in 2014. dreger and wang, among others, agreed that, in addition to being impacted by the oil price, the rapid depreciation of the russian rouble in autumn 2014 was an outcome of the trade disruptions [43,44]. however, russian food imports accounted for only 7.5% of total russian imports and less than 3% of total russian trade [14]. therefore, food imports could not have significantly affected exchange rates. rutland pointed out that the sharp decline of the russian rouble in autumn 2014 followed an expansion of sanctions on the financial sector in mid-september and a continuous decrease in oil prices [8]. the works that focused on exchange rate effects on agricultural prices in 2014 (e.g. [45,46]) studied only trade prices in the grain and potato markets with var models. sinyakov [47] studied the impact of exchange rate liberalisation on producers but made conclusions about agricultural prices only at the sectoral level. the low number of studies may also be explained by the limited applicability of the many popular approaches to price investigation in the case of many interventions into russian food markets in 2014 (see appendix a). meanwhile, exchange rates are widely regarded as one of the most influential factors of agricultural prices [48], such as resource prices, stocks, market conditions, policies, supply and demand [49]. 3. materials and methods 3.1 data in this article, the studied import price in food markets is a quantity-weighted average of suppliers’ prices. thus, the exclusion of one or several suppliers because of a loss of competitiveness, trade permission or seasonal production does not lead to the withdrawal of price data. trade information (prices in russian roubles and volumes in kilograms) for this study was obtained from the international trade centre [14], and the average weighted exchange rate is available at the central bank of the russian federation. data on the exchange rate are available daily, whereas import prices are documented only monthly. thus, no variations in import prices in russian roubles at a higher frequency were implicitly assumed. the weekly frequency of data allows for the exclusion of weekend effects and the accurate investigation of interventions. in the russian market, prices in russian roubles are obtained by multiplying prices in foreign currencies according to exchange rates at the time of imports. as the most used currency in russian trade in 2014 was the us dollar, this study investigates the clear effect of interventions in prices in us dollars. using the weekly aggregated exchange rate allowed the converting of monthly import prices in russian roubles back to weekly prices in us dollars, thus obtaining the weekly prices for imports in russian markets. this convertation may create a price measurement error, as agricultural markets operate on a weekly or even daily frequency. however, the direction, relative size, and statistical significance of the discontinuities in the prices will remain a good indication of the short-term policy effects. 55 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 the present study investigates fresh, dried and frozen unpreserved foods, including 166 animal products and 114 types of roots, vegetables and fruit, defined by 10-digit harmonised system (hs) codes without missing data for the 2012-2014 period. this disaggregated level of trade prices defines the traded products by tariff line. for these tariff lines and for each of the 52 weeks in a year, there is an import price in russian roubles and in us dollars, totalling 29,120 observations for each studied year. the prices were deflated to the 2014 level to enable price comparisons between years. next, the data were grouped into 560 sets of import prices by tariff line and currency, with further standardisation to the average price level in 2014 within each set. the standardisation of prices allows the preservation of any existing seasonality in prices and a comparison of the prices and price discontinuities between products. to avoid seasonal patterns in prices, all standardised prices were tested for seasonality by tariff line using the tbats model of the forecast package in r [50]. this package performs a seasonality test for weekly data. the resulting range of products excluded 19 tariff lines due to seasonality. the present study assigned each of the 261 tariff lines without seasonality to one of the product groups (see the details in section 4 and appendix b), described in table 1. as the exchange rate liberalisation happened 7 weeks before the end of 2014, the descriptive statistics show the average price levels during 7 weeks before and after the exchange rate policy change for each of the studied food groups. the levels of prices and standardised prices increased in russian roubles (rub), while the prices in us dollars (usd) decreased for some product groups. the study employs econometric analysis to consider the trends in the data. 3.2 method the aim of this study was to identify the short-run effect of the exchange rate policy change in 2014 on food import price stability in russian markets. the date of the exchange rate liberalisation, 1 november 2014 [42], was used as a cut-off point for the effect estimations. to assess discontinuities in the prices for each product at the time of the intervention, the present study uses rdd, which aims to imitate the experimental context at the cut-off to evaluate the treatment effect locally for the subpopulation at the threshold (see more in [16,51]). the rdrobust function of the r package rdrobust was employed to implement conventional local polynomial point estimators to calculate robust average treatment effects at the cut-off point (see the details in [17]). table 1. descriptive statistics of the average food import prices in russia in 2014 during the 7 weeks before and after the exchange rate liberalisation. product group usd rub price levels standardised price price levels standardised price before after before after before after before after berries 2.2 2.4 98.1 99.2 88.6 123.4 100.8 132.6 bovine and beef 7.0 6.7 101.6 98.0 281.1 348.8 105.3 131.1 buttermilk and butter 2.5 2.3 95.2 85.1 98.2 119.1 99.6 115.3 curd and cheese 5.6 5.6 91.8 94.0 224.0 291.5 95.5 126.2 fish 7.1 7.1 98.4 96.6 285.8 365.2 102.0 129.3 fruits and nuts, long storage 3.3 3.6 97.5 101.3 131.9 186.7 100.7 135.7 fruits, fresh 1.3 1.3 89.5 93.6 51.3 69.5 93.1 126.0 milk and cream 2.1 1.7 95.2 75.9 84.5 86.5 100.2 102.5 pigs and pork 4.6 4.7 109.1 109.1 184.1 243.4 111.9 144.2 poultry 2.4 2.1 113.2 96.9 96.7 106.5 117.0 129.1 seafood 9.8 11.2 102.4 102.7 391.7 583.4 105.7 136.8 vegetables and mushrooms, perishable 1.3 1.3 90.8 89.9 51.0 67.4 94.4 121.2 vegetables and peas, long storage 1.4 1.4 93.3 94.8 57.5 70.3 96.7 127.5 56 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 formally, yt,j,g (also addressed as yi,g in the present study) defines the standardised import prices of interest at time t=1...t and for tariff lines j=1...mg within the consistent product groups g=1...g; the index i is introduced to capture the information about time t and a tariff line j of each observationa. the treatment cut-off (or threshold) x is the week of the intervention, and xi is a running variable that counts the number of weeks to reach week x. therefore, the running variable was assigned to time, and rdd in the present study may be called rdd in time (rdit), as abbreviated by hausman and rapson [52]. the observations after treatment introduction cannot remain in pre-treatment conditions without exchange rate liberalisation. for this reason, the analysis is based on the sharp rdd rather than the fuzzy rdd, which would be appropriate in the case of non-compliance with a treatment. the treatment d is a binary variable equal to 1 if xi≥0 (treated phase, i.e. liberalised exchange rates) and 0 otherwise (untreated phase, i.e. regulated exchange rates). the exchange rate liberalisation was not driven by the same confounders as food import prices and might not have affected the traded volumes, as those could be provided by other suppliers (see section 2). importers could not manipulate the assignment to the exchange rate regimes (this is important for locally randomized treatment in rdd, see the discussion by lee and lemieux [53]). therefore, exchange rate policy change is assumed to be an exogenous treatment on prices. a positive bandwidth h is the number of weeks before or after the time of the intervention. therefore, the restriction -h ≤ x ≤ h defines the window of the estimation, which is always balanced in this study and always covers an equal number of comparable observations in the treated and untreated phases. a set of assumptions is required to conduct estimations in time. the lengths of the bandwidths in rdd should follow the localisation assumption: the windows of the estimations must cover a small period with equal expectations for pre-treatment covariates. in addition, the estimation windows should be narrow enough to exclude the effects of other interventions. to fulfil these assumptions, the sum of the bandwidths for the pair of neighbouring interventions cannot exceed a calonico et al. [17] use index i for random observations from a large population. each price in the present study is a quantity-weighted average of suppliers’ prices for tariff line j and time t (see ‘data’ section). in addition, the studied prices were selected from a large population according to data completeness within tariff lines during the period 2012-2014. therefore, in this study, additional tests on randomness of observations with index i were required and conducted for studied groups and estimation windows (appendix d). the results of these tests show that most correlations of tariff lines and most correlations of observations within tariff lines do not exceed the bandwidth of white noise. the number of weeks between these interventions. in the context of the present study, there were only 13 weeks between the embargo and the exchange rate liberalisation and only 7 weeks between the exchange rate liberalisation and the extension of the embargo to ukraine. this study, therefore, uses the bandwidths from the minimal h=3 to the maximum h=7 and tests for one common optimal (by mean square error) bandwidth for the treatment effect estimatorb. all the effect estimations are then relevant in the short term covered by the window of estimation, the optimal bandwidth is preferential and the second best bandwidth is h=3. the narrower window of the estimation allows for better comparability of the observations around the threshold and reduces spillover effects, i.e. the potential bias in the effect estimates if the previous interventions had stronger effects on the non-treated window than on the treated window. using the narrow window of estimation allows for reducing the difference between the earliest and the latest observations in terms of possible effects of previous interventions. an rdd should not be conducted with less than 100 observations for each estimation to rely on asymptotics [16,52]. to ensure the required number of observations for the chosen values of h, the present study gathered the 261 tariff lines without seasonality into consistent product groups g=1...g (appendix b), providing around 100 observations for each estimation. to concentrate the tariff-line levels of a standardised price around their average within the selected window and to consider the possible discontinuities (or effects) from previous interventions, the tariff-line fixed effects βj were included in the function. grouping the tariff lines into product groups and using fixed effects on standardised variables allows the concept of rdit to be moved towards rdd with a lot of sampling of random unitsc. for each product group, rdd uses a narrow estimation window around the cut-off and builds p-order local polynomials used to construct the point estimator (and a q-order local polynomials used to construct the bias correction) for the observations before week x and for the observations after week x. for each product group g, the rdrobust function of the rdrobust r package used yi,g, xi, h, p, q to produce the assessment of the effect of the intervention (a weighted average treatment effect) ˆgτ . the magnitude and the significance of ˆgτ were the interest of the present b as advised by lee and lemieux [51], the present study employs the ‘uniform’ kernel function (rectangular kernel) and tests the specification with a variety of bandwidths, instead of trying out different kernels that are more difficult to interpret. c see also appendix d for the results of the tests on correlations within and between tariff lines. 57 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 study. the sharp rdd calculates the effect estimate as follows:  = lim → (+)   1  = ] − lim → −   0  = ] , (1) where yi(1) and yi(0) denote the potential outcomes with and without treatment, respectively, and the local polynomials used to construct the point estimators are denoted as   0  = ]   1  = ] for the observations before week x and   0  = ]   1  = ] for the observations after week x. furthermore, x → x (+) and x → x (-) means approaching the threshold x from above and below in terms of values of x. in other words, the method builds the functions before and after the cut-off point, calculates the expected values of these functions infinitely close to the cut-off point and delivers the difference between these values. the key question while building these polynomials is a choice of the value p. lee and lemieux [53] argued that using low-order polynomials may result in biased results in the rdd designs. however, this argument was produced for the data without a time component in a running variable. this study used a polynomial of the first order (linear trend, p=1, q=2) following the assumption that the clouds of prices developed linearly shortly before and after the week of intervention. this assumption is more likely to be satisfied in practice compared to the alternative scenarios, namely quadratic, cubic or higher-order polynomial price trends over time. the higher-order polynomials reach infinite values much faster than linear trends. as each price is a market equilibrium identifier and this study uses grouping, the narrow estimation windows and both the standardisation and fixed effects across tariff lines, the assumption that the food import prices would evolve linearly may be most plausible among other alternatives of the designd. this study assumes the absence of cross-observation effects on each outcome (the assumption of no interference) and that the correlations are considered with a linear approximation and fixed effects in the clouds of observations. the assumption of consistency (no treatments at the cut-off, except for the studied treatment) is met, as other trade regulations were not introduced in the same week as the exchange rate policy changed. another interpretation d in the setting of this study, mg >2h+1 for most product groups g and bandwidths h, which means that we are dealing with panel data rather than time series. the only exception is the ‘pigs and pork’ product group that contains only 11 tariff lines; therefore, it also has only 77 observations for h = 3 and 99 observations for h = 4, which are slightly fewer than recommended. modelling prices using time polynomials of order higher than 1 is not widely accepted among statisticians. lower-order polynomials reduce the power of rdd, but allow modelled price to behave similar to real price over time, which means that real prices are unlikely to change to infinite values as high-order polynomials do. of the consistency assumption, namely, ‘no such changes in weather and emissions from other industries that may change at the same time as the policy change’, as advised by hausman and rapson [52] (p. 7), is met in the present study, as prices with the seasonality were excluded from the sample and other food and trade policies were not found to be implemented during the period of estimation. the exchange rate liberalisation in russia in 2014 was introduced on a saturday, so issues regarding midweek policy activations (e.g. [54]) could be avoided. the described data processing allowed the collection of the minimum number of observations around the cut-off to meet the identifiability and positivity assumptions. the unconfoundedness assumption is assumed to hold locally around the threshold, as the intervention and the outcome prices did not have observable common confounders. significant price discontinuities may occur periodically at the start or end of the harvest season. therefore, the present study carries placebo estimations (see the discussion by hausman and rapson [52]) for the week that contains the same day and month (1 november) in a previous year (appendix c), when such active trade and monetary policies were not performed. the placebo tests resulted in mostly insignificant coefficients for all the studied product groups. 4. results 4.1 descriptive evidence for descriptive evidence, the period-averaged standardised data for tariff lines within product groups observed three weeks before and three weeks after the intervention are visualised in the violin plots in figure 2. the three lines in the plots mark the first, second (median) and third quartiles, while the shape illustrates the kernel probability density of the data. prices are depicted separately for the periods before and after the exchange rate liberalisation in two currencies: russian roubles (rub) and us dollars (usd). differences in the shapes of corresponding plots in different currencies are driven only by weekly currency effects. the graph shows a slight upward shift in import prices and a higher magnitude of most prices after the intervention. the concentration of standardised prices in the 50%~150% range shows that many import prices in russia were far from the yearly average before and after exchange rate liberalisation. the diversity of plot shapes justifies the rdd estimations for the various products separately. the magnitude of price fluctuations justifies the usage of tariff line fixed effects. 58 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 4.2 rdd estimation results this study employed rdit to estimate the short-term effects of the exchange rate policy change on food import prices in russia in 2014. table 2 presents the information on the rdit and the estimates obtained for the different bandwidths. the number of observations for each estimate is equal to mg * (2h+1) and increases with the higher number of tariff lines mg included in product group g and the wider bandwidth h. in the present study, the number of observations for the optimal bandwidth is above 100 for all products except ‘pigs and pork’. the number of observations used for the rdit ranges from 77 to 420 per product group, which can be considered rather low. therefore, the results should be interpreted with caution. this section provides the interpretation of the estimates obtained by rdit with optimal bandwidths and discusses the robustness of the effects (the significance and magnitude) across different bandwidth values. placebo tests are presented in appendix c. the significant estimations show that the exchange rate liberalisation led to import price increase for several product groups. the prices of pig products, fish and fresh fruit in us dollars increased by 8.2 p.p., 5.5 p.p. and 12.9 p.p., respectively. these effects were twice as strong in russian roubles, according to the same specification performed on standardised monthly invariant prices in russian roubles. in addition, the exchange rate policy change resulted in sharp increases in the prices of curd and cheese (by 11.7 p.p.), berries (by 15.1 p.p.) and long storable fruits and nuts (by 3.7 p.p.), but only in russian roubles. the rdit has shown that the policy effects depend on the currency of studied prices and have smaller magnitude than the average difference in price levels before and after the intervention (table 1). the price volatilities in the food groups of berries, milk and perishable vegetables were high in the studied period; therefore, the potential shift in the prices of milk and perishable vegetables after exchange rate liberalisation was insignificant. the robustness of the estimations was checked using various bandwidths. for pig products, fish and curd (and cheese), the effect estimations had the same sign and were statistically significant across most bandwidth choices. insignificant effects across various bandwidths were observed for poultry, milk and cream, buttermilk and butter and perishable vegetables. the prices of these products did not experience significantly stronger policy effects as compared with their volatilities. for vegetables and berries, the significance of the effect on prices decreased with wider bandwidth. for other product groups, the effects might be even more ambiguous. the comparison of the magnitudes of the estimations for various bandwidths within each product does not allow concluding about any tendency. nevertheless, placebo tests presented in appendix c did not reveal any significant effect for the same method conducted for the threshold on 1 november 2013 (except weakly significant discontinuity for fish [h = 5], which may be neglected). figure 2. violin plots for the average standardised food import prices in russia in 2014, 3 weeks before and after the exchange rate policy change. 59 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 table 2. descriptive statistics of the average food import prices in russia in 2014 during the 7 weeks before and after the exchange rate liberalisation. robust discontinuity estimation ( ) on weekly observations (obs.) in percentage points to the average price level in 2014. (standard error) product number of tariff lines and optimal h number of observations h = 3 h = 4 h = 5 h = 6 h = 7 optimal h h = 7 usd rub usd rub usd rub usd rub usd rub bovine and beef 20 and 3 140 300 0.1(4.7) 6.9(5.2) –1.9(4.9) 1.9(5.4). –5.9(5.8). –3.2(6.3)** –4.2(5.9) –3.3(6.4) –4.8(5.8) –1.7(6.3) pigs and pork 11 and 3 77 165 8.2(5.6)* 16.8(5.6)** 7.2(5.2). 12.7(5.2)** 3.8(5.5)* 8.3(5.5)*** 5.8(5.7) 8.2(5.6)** 4.7(5.7) 9.5(5.6)* poultry 23 and 4 207 345 –2(4.3) 4.8(4.8) –2(4.7) 2.4(5.3) –1.9(5.6) 1.7(6.2) 0.2(5.8) 2(6.3) –1.2(5.6) 2.6(6.1) fish 28 and 3 196 420 5.5(3.4)* 13(3.6)*** 4.3(3.3)* 9(3.5)*** 2(3.5)** 5.8(3.7)*** 3.9(3.5) 5.8(3.7)*** 3(3.5) 7(3.7)* seafood 18 and 4 162 270 6(6.3) 13.6(7.1). 4.2(6.6) 8.6(7.4)* 1.1(8.3)* 4.43(9)** 3(8.7) 4.5(9.4). 2.2(8.4) 6(9.1) milk and cream 25 and 5 275 375 –3.3(7.8) 1.9(8.9) –2.2(8.6) 1.3(9.8) –0.8(9.4) 2.3(10.7) 0.9(9.5) 2.5(10.7) –0.6(9.3) 2.5(10.4) buttermilk and butter 16 and 3 112 240 –3.2(2.6) 2.2(2.9) –5.5(2.7) –2.9(3) –4.8(3.2). –3(3.6) –2.3(3.4)* –2.2(3.7) –3.2(3.3) –1.1(3.6) curd and cheese 20 and 4 180 300 8.1(6). 15.8(6.7)* 6.7(6.6). 11.7(7.6)** 3.9(7.8)* 7.9(8.8)*** 5.6(7.9) 7.9(8.8)* 4.8(7.7) 9.2(8.5) vegetables and mushrooms, fresh 24 and 3° 168 360 0.9(8.9) 6.8(9.7) –2.5(9.1) 0.1(9.9) –3.6(10.3) –2(11.2) –1.2(10.6) –1.3(11.4) –1.7(10.4) 0.4(11.2) vegetables and peas, long storage 24 and 3° 168 360 8.4(6.8) 15.8(7.6)* 5.7(7.3) 9.9(8.2)* 7.3(9.1) 10.7(10). 10.2(9.4) 11.7(10.3). 9.3(9.2) 12.9(10) berries 17 and 4 153 255 12.8(8.9). 21.1(9.7)* 10(9.4). 15.1(10.5)* 16(10.6) 20.1(11.7) 19.8(10.9) 21.8(11.9) 18.5(10.6) 22.7(11.5). fruits, fresh 16 and 3° 112 240 12.9(7.8)* 20.6(8.8)* 10.5(8). 15(9)** 13.6(9.2) 17.2(10.1). 16.7(9.4) 18.4(10.3). 15.6(9.2) 19.5(10.1). fruits and nuts, long storage 18 and 4 162 270 4.1(6.8) 11.2(7.7) 0.3(7.7) 3.7(8.8)* –2.2(9.4) 0(10.5)* 0.2(9.7) 0.5(10.7) –0.2(9.3) 2.5(10.2) notes: ‘***’, ‘**’, ‘*’ and ‘.’ denote p-values less than 0.001, 0.01, 0.05 and 0.1, respectively. 3° means that the optimal bandwidth was below 3 and, therefore, the study uses the minimum bandwidth h = 3. the product ‘vegetables and peas, long storage’ includes categories of frozen and dried crops, as well as products that may be stored during a year after harvest until the next harvest (root vegetables and cabbage). the vegetable category also includes tomatoes, peas, beans and mushrooms. more details on the grouping are presented in appendix 4.2. the prices for tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers and apples were the maximum prices across the corresponding seasonal tariff lines for these products. within the time windows, no other interventions take place. 60 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 4.3 the benefits and the limitations of the study in contrast to other studies (see section 2), the rdit in the present study quantifies a price discontinuity at the time of the intervention by using observations of only a few weeks before and after the intervention. as a beforeand-after analysis under quasi-experimental assumptions, the applied rdit offers five main improvements compared with other techniques. first, rdit takes trends into account when measuring discontinuities in the outcomes. rdit performed with the r package rdrobust allows for relatively easier customisation of the properties of the expected polynomials compared with other statistical approaches. second, rdit enables statistical justification of the estimation window by using additional internal functions for optimal bandwidth selection. this tool is useful for interpreting the results, especially when the effect estimates and their significance are not stable across different estimation windows. third, rdit enables the evaluation of policies under conditions such as the russian markets in 2014, when the time window in which a single policy effect can be estimated is extremely narrow. whereas most methods cannot provide causal estimates of the effects under such conditions, rdit benefits from this situation because it relies mainly on observations that are close to the time of the intervention. fourth, rdit enables the effect estimates for specific interventions when the researcher has limited ability to obtain a control group. this advantage reduces the data and matching routines and is key for obtaining effect estimates in many cases when the control group is not available. finally, rdit allows for a causal interpretation of the results, which is becoming increasingly important in policy evaluation studies. most of the limitations of this study relate to the data. the trade data do not allow for precisely distinguishing between the traded products by quality, although the presented method already allows comparisons of the effect estimates for products of different quality. the second limitation relates to the available data frequency, which is lower than required for this analysis but was corrected in this study by converting between the currencies. despite a potential error in price measurement after price conversion, the rdit found significant discontinuities at the time of the policy intervention in 2014 and showed no significant discontinuities in placebo tests. thus, there is no violation of the rdd, and one can at least infer the significance and relative size of the effects. the third limitation of this study concerns the number of observations used for each estimate in this study, which ranges from 77 to 420 per product group and may be considered low by practitioners. the number of observations in this study was limited by (a) the window of estimation, which should be as narrow as possible, and (b) the possibilities of mixing food tariff lines in such a way that they remain comparable within a product group. therefore, this study used estimation windows with more observations, presented the results for many bandwidth options and highlighted the best possible estimates (with optimal bandwidth) given the available data. nevertheless, the results should be interpreted with caution. the fourth limitation of the study is that the possible correlations in the clouds of observations were neglected by the applied rdit when creating the polynomials for estimation. the correlations between the observations were tested in appendix d. these tests did not reveal any critical violations of the rdd for narrow windows. fifth, while the narrow optimal window allows for a causal interpretation of the results, the estimates of short-run effects do not take into account the consequences of exchange rate liberalisation such as market panics and other medium-run effects that may occur after the studied period. these effects are beyond the scope of this study. finally, the use of linear trends in this study follows the tradition of price modelling with other modelling tools. the possibility of using higher-order polynomials in rdit requires more statistical studies in the future. 5. discussion and conclusions the main message of the present study is that the exchange rate liberalisation (1 november 2014) in russia in 2014 triggered several significant discontinuities in food import prices. these discontinuities ranged from +3 to +21 percentage points to the average price level in 2014, and these effects varied depending on the studied currency. pig products, fish and cheese experienced significant policy effects in import prices, while poultry, milk and cream, buttermilk and butter and perishable vegetables did not. berries, milk and perishable vegetables experienced high volatility during the studied period; therefore, the relatively weaker discontinuities in prices that could potentially be introduced by exchange rate liberalisation were insignificant. the results of this study suggest that many food import prices increased after exchange rate liberalisation, but do not suggest that the stronger rouble would move prices back to pre-2014 levels. instead, the method of the present study provides an ex-post productby-product estimation of the short-term effects of the intervention on prices and does not have major predictive power. previous studies that described the events of 2014 in russia also revealed food price destabilisation in russian markets. however, the models used for previous estima61 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 tions did not allow distinguishing the effects of trade bans and currency policy on food prices (section 2). consequently, all the final effects were interpreted as the effects of the embargo and sometimes explained with russian rouble depreciation without precise quantitative evidence of exchange rate policy liberalisation. exceptions are, for instance, loginova and irek [55], who examined only meat markets and were rather focused on vertical price transmission than on price stability, and also loginova and mann [56], who studied price stability in the long term and in conditions of various agricultural institutions. the present study attempted to fill this gap for russian food import prices, and the setting used in the present study was valuable for assessing the effects of the intervention far enough (in time) from other interventions. few food import prices in russia experienced seasonality patterns; however, most producer and consumer prices did not pass rdit assumptions because of seasonality. for series without seasonality, the approach in a present study may help to solve many interventions’ short-term causal effect estimation tasks in times of change, because ensuring non-overlapping estimation windows and grouping the series by clear criteria are often much easier in practice than searching for and adopting a control group. future studies should also attempt to benefit from using more frequent and disaggregated data compared to this study, because the higher amount of observations would allow for more reliable results. this paper summarises the policies in russian agricultural sector in 2014 and examines the impact of exchange rate liberalisation on food import price stability. the exchange rate growth significantly increased the prices of several products in russia in 2014. the study advises policymakers to be cautious in terms of exchange rate regulation and to expect structural changes in agricultural trade when exchange rates experience extremes. this means that decisions taken regarding exchange rates should consider their potential impact on food security. the presented technique of effect estimation is useful for policymakers, decision makers and businesspersons, especially for short-term market risk analysis in times of change. conflict of interest there is no conflict of interest. references [1] wickham, p., 1985. the choice of exchange rate regime in developing countries. a survey of the literature. imf. available online: https://www.elibrary.imf. org/view/journals/024/1985/002/article-a003-en.xml (accessed on 9 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[66] barrett, c., bellemare, m., 2011.why food price volatility doesn’t matter. foreign affairs, 12. https:// w w w. f o r e i g n a ff a i r s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / 2 0 11 0 7 1 2 / why-food-price-volatility-doesnt-matter. appendix a applicability of the approaches to studying exchange rate liberalisation as section 2 describes, russian markets experienced many interventions in 2014. most techniques employed on russian markets in 2014 would depict the effects of the bulk of events but not the effect estimates of exchange rate liberalisation. the panel data models performed on weekly and higher-frequency data allow the decomposition of the price (index) magnitude across a set of characteristics and fixed effects (e.g. [57,58]), which requires highly detailed datasets and a fit of the strong assumptions behind their design. in such a setting, the intervention would be a classifier rather than a cause. auto regression (ar) models and their modified versions are frequently used for studying prices (e.g. [59]), interdependencies of exchange rate and trade in time (e.g. [60-62]) and the effects of real exchange rate depreciation on prices [63]. however, in the ar design, short-term volatility during the structural change may be treated as an error of the model. in the russian food markets in 2014, such volatility was observed often enough to violate the ar design. causal and experimental methods is a good alternative for complicated time-series methods, when the main question is focused at the time of change (see the discussion by lechner [64]). however, causal techniques require a control group, which should be comparable to the treated group and consistent with pre-trend assumptions (see the discussion by roth [65]). a mass treatment effect of exchange rate liberalisation on trade withdraws the opportunity to find untreated import flows for difference-in-differencese. the regression discontinuity design appears to be useful for policy effect estimation (see the examples in [53,54]) in the mentioned conditions, as it entails local regression, which requires the available data for russian markets. the rdd was developed for individual data and requires adoption to study prices in time. how rdit can be implemented to provide an answer to the research question is described in section 3. the result is a change in price levels and trends, so that the understanding of price stability in this study is consistent with barrett and bellemare’s [66] view of the food price issue. e regional open data for russian imports are available only for the three years before the time of requesting the data from the russian customs services. for difference-in-difference or synthetic control, these data require a control group from comparable neighbouring regions of other countries. besides increasing complexity, this negates the opportunity to study interest at the country level and violates stable unit treatment value assumption (sutva). the prices in the regions around the russian border do interrelate, as the trade there was intensive and even increased after the trade restrictions towards the eu were implemented. within russian data only, the control groups between tariff lines would not be precise, as similar products are traded within the same tariff line. the control groups between trade partners may violate comparability of countries by climate, production, quality and pricing mechanisms. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-022-00219-6 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.12.004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.12.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.05.006 https://doi.org/10.1080/000368498324887 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.11.004 https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12257 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-5150(99)00003-1 https://doi.org/10.1080/07474938.2011.520571 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2011-07-12/why-food-price-volatility-doesnt-matter https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2011-07-12/why-food-price-volatility-doesnt-matter https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2011-07-12/why-food-price-volatility-doesnt-matter 65 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 appendix b table a1. food tariff lines within product groups product group number of tariff lines hs codes berries 17 0810100000, 0810201000, 0810303000, 0810403000, 0810405000, 0810409000, 0810902000, 0811109000, 0811203100, 0811203900, 0811205100, 0811205900, 0811209000, 0811905000, 0811907500, 0811908000, 0811909500 seasonality: 0810209000, 0810500000, 0810700000 bovines and beef ° 20 0201202001, 0201202008, 0201300004, 0201300005, 0202100001, 0202100008, 0202209001, 0202305004, 0202309004, 0202309005, 0202309008, 0204229000, 0204230000, 0204410000, 0204429000, 0204431000, 0204439000, 0206210000, 0206220009, 0206299100 buttermilk and butter ° 16 0403905102, 0403905109, 0403905302, 0403905309, 0403905900, 0403906100, 0403906300, 0403906900, 0403909100, 0403909900, 0405101100, 0405101900, 0405109000, 0405203000, 0405209000, 0405901000 curd and cheese ° 20 0406102002, 0406102003, 0406102009, 0406108000, 0406209000, 0406303100, 0406303900, 0406409000, 0406900100, 0406901301, 0406901500, 0406901800, 0406902100, 0406902500, 0406903209, 0406906900, 0406907300, 0406907800, 0406908600, 0406908700, 0406908800, 0406909909 fish 28 0302118000, 0302140000, 0302230000, 0302240000, 0302820000, 0302841000, 0302851000, 0302853000, 0302891080, 0302893900, 0302895000, 0303130000, 0303142000, 0303149000, 0303510000, 0303533000, 0303541000, 0303661200, 0303661900, 0303897000, 0303909000, 0304499000, 0304610000, 0304741500, 0304750000, 0304860000, 0304991000, 0304992300 seasonality: 0304870000 fruits and nuts, long storage 18 0801110000, 0801120000, 0801190000, 0801220000, 0801320000, 0802129000, 0802220000, 0802320000, 0803909000, 0804100009, 0804209000, 0805400000, 0805509000, 0806209000, 0813100000, 0813200000, 0813300000, 0813409500, seasonality: 0802510000, 0805205000, 0805501000, 0805900000 fruits, fresh 16 0803901000, 0804100001, 0804201000, 0804300001, 0804500001, 0805102000, 0805201000, 0806101000, 0806109000, 0806203000, 0807190000, 0807200000, 0808108000, 0808309000, 0809301000, 0810907500 seasonality: 0804400000, 0807110000, 0809309000, 0809400500 milk and cream ° 25 0401101000, 0401201109, 0401201900, 0401209109, 0401209900, 0401401000, 0401501100, 0401503900, 0402101900, 0402211900, 0402219900, 0402911000, 0402991000, 0402993100, 0403101100, 0403101300, 0403105100, 0403105300, 0403109100, 0403109300, 0403901300, 0403903300, 0404100200, 0404100400, 0404101400, 0404104800, 0404902100, 0404902300, 0404908300 pigs and pork 11 0203211001, 0203211009, 0203221101, 0203221109, 0203291501, 0203295501, 0203295502, 0203295901, 0206410009, 0209101100, 0210198100 seasonality: 0203291301 poultry 23 0207111001, 0207113009, 0207119001, 0207119009, 0207129009, 0207135001, 0207141001, 0207141009, 0207142001, 0207142009, 0207143009, 0207144009, 0207145001, 0207146001, 0207146009, 0207147009, 0207149109, 0207149909, 0207271001, 0207271009, 0207273009, 0207276009, 0207428009 seasonality: 0207451009, 0207456109 seafood ° 18 0305391000, 0305399090, 0305410000, 0305430000, 0305595000, 0305598000, 0306169900, 0306179200, 0306179900, 0307299000, 0307493800, 0307495900, 0307499900, 0307591000, 0307609000, 0307910000, 0307991700, 0307998000 vegetables and mushrooms, perishable 24 0702000000, 0703109000, 0703900000, 0704100000, 0704909000, 0705110000, 0705190000, 0707000500, 0708100000, 0708200000, 0709200000, 0709300000, 0709510000, 0709599000, 0709601000, 0709700000, 0709931000, 0709939000, 0709991000, 0709992000, 0709995000, 0710300000, 0710400000, 0710805100 seasonality: 0705290000, 0709609900 vegetables and peas, long storage 24 0701909000, 0703101900, 0703200000, 0704901001, 0704901009, 0706901000, 0706909009, 0709400000, 0710210000, 0710220000, 0710806100, 0710806900, 0710808500, 0710809500, 0710900000, 0712200000, 0712310000, 0712320000, 0712390000, 0712903000, 0712905000, 0712909000, 0713200000, 0713339000, 0714201000 seasonality: 0706100001, 0706909001 note: product descriptions are available in [14]; products with possible seasonality were excluded. ° seasonality: none 66 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 appendix c table a2. placebo tests and robustness checks for the results in table 2 product ( ) h = 3 h = 4 h = 5 h = 6 h = 7 usd rub usd rub usd rub usd rub usd rub bovines and beef 2.3 (3.7) 2.3 (3.7) 2.8 (4) 2.8 (4) 4.3 (4.4) 4.3 (4.4) 4.5 (4.5) 4.5 (4.5) 4.3 (4.4) 4.3 (4.4) pigs and pork 2.6 (2.8) 2.6 (2.8) 2.9 (3) 2.9 (3) 3.6 (3) 3.6 (3) 3.6 (2.9) 3.6 (2.9) 3.5 (2.9) 3.5 (2.9) poultry 2.9 (3.3) 2.9 (3.3) 2.6 (3.2) 2.6 (3.2) 3.9 (3.4) 3.9 (3.4) 4.1 (3.5) 4.1 (3.5) 4.1 (3.5) 4.1 (3.5) fish 4 (2.9). 4 (2.9) 4.5 (3) 4.5 (3) 3.4 (3.4). 3.4 (3.4)* 3.2 (3.5) 3.2 (3.5). 3.2 (3.4) 3.2 (3.4) seafood –0.1 (4.5) –0.1 (4.5) –1 (4.7) –1 (4.7) –0.3 (5) –0.3 (5) –0.03 (5) –0.03 (5) 0.1 (4.9) 0.1 (4.9) milk and cream –2.3 (7) –2.3 (7) –3.9 (7.3) –3.9 (7.3) –4.2 (7.3) –4.2 (7.3) –4 (7.3) –4 (7.3) –3.6 (7.2) –3.6 (7.2) buttermilk and butter 3.8 (3.6) 3.8 (3.6) 3.4 (3.7) 3.4 (3.7) 4.4 (4.5) 4.4 (4.5) 4.6 (4.6) 4.6 (4.6) 4.6 (4.5) 4.6 (4.5) curd and cheese 4.2 (5.4) 4.2 (5.4) 3.5 (5.5) 3.5 (5.5) 5.7 (8) 5.7 (8) 6.2 (8.5) 6.2 (8.5) 6.2 (8.2) 6.2 (8.2) vegetables and mushrooms, perishable 1.1 (4.9) 1.1 (4.9) 0.1 (5.2) 0.1 (5.2) 0.9 (5.2) 0.9 (5.2) 1.1 (5.2) 1.1 (5.2) 1.3 (5.1) 1.3 (5.1) vegetables and peas, long storage –4 (4.7) –4 (4.7) –4.8 (4.8) –4.8 (4.8) –6.8 (6.2) –6.8 (6.2) –7 (6.4) –7 (6.4) –6.7 (6.3) –6.7 (6.3) berries –10.2 (7.7) –10.2 (7.7) –10.8 (7.7) –10.8 (7.7) –11.7 (8) –11.7 (8) –11.7 (8). –11.7 (8) –11.5 (8). –11.5 (8) fruits, fresh 5.7 (6) 5.7 (6) 5.2 (6.2) 5.2 (6.2) 6.8 (6.8) 6.8 (6.8) 7.2 (6.9) 7.2 (6.9) 7.1 (6.8) 7.1 (6.8) fruits and nuts, long storage 0.4 (3.8) 0.4 (3.8) 0.8 (4.1) 0.8 (4.1) 1.2 (4.4) 1.2 (4.4) 1.2 (4.4) 1.2 (4.4) 1 (4.3) 1 (4.3) note: ‘***’, ‘**’, ‘*’ and ‘.’ denote p-values less than 0.001, 0.01, 0.05 and 0.1, respectively. the date of 1 november 2013 was used as a cut-off point for placebo estimations. the prices with insignificant discontinuities (p-value > 0.05) were considered stable. the effect of exchange rate liberalisation was equal to the estimated coefficient for data in 2014 if the coefficient in the placebo test was insignificant. in the case of significant placebo estimations, this approach might have introduced a pre-testing problem, as only the results for non-significant placebo tests would be kept (roth, 2020). however, the placebo estimations for the studied import price groups and bandwidths were insignificant, except for a few weakly significant estimations for fish. 67 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 appendix d table a3. testing the correlations within and between tariff lines usd rub h = 3 h = 4 h = 5 h = 6 h = 7 h = 3 h = 4 h = 5 h = 6 h = 7 number of observations per tariff line 7 9 11 13 15 7 9 11 13 15 white noise, if the absolute correlation is lower than (white noise bandwidth) 0.756 0.667 0.603 0.555 0.516 0.756 0.667 0.603 0.555 0.516 ar(1) within tariff lines number of tariff lines behaving as white noise (by acf, 1st lag) divided by number of tariff lines within the group *100% all data 100 83.8 74.2 58.5 30.7 96.5 100 69.2 13.8 0 bovines and beef 100 85 90 75 55 95 100 65 15 0 pigs and pork 100 81.8 72.7 63.6 54.5 100 100 54.5 0 0 poultry 100 86.9 52.1 39.1 13 100 100 82.6 21.7 0 fish 100 85.7 78.5 82.1 67.8 100 100 60.7 0 0 seafood 100 88.8 77.7 61.1 27.7 100 100 66.7 16.7 0 milk and cream 100 80 56 24 12 88 100 84 20 0 buttermilk and butter 100 75 62.5 62.5 25 87.5 100 93.75 12.5 0 curd and cheese 100 90 100 90 40 100 100 60 10 0 vegetables and mushrooms, perishable 100 75 66.7 37.5 8.3 100 100 62.5 29.1 0 vegetables and peas, long storage 100 95.8 83.3 58.3 25 100 100 58.3 4.1 0 berries 100 82.4 70.6 58.8 17.6 88.2 100 64.7 17.6 0 fruits, fresh 100 75 68.8 50 18.8 93.7 100 68.7 25 0 fruits and nuts, long storage 100 83.3 88.9 66.7 38.9 100 100 77.7 5.5 0 correlation between tariff lines number of absolute correlations between tariff lines within the group that do not exceed the white noise bandwidth divided by total number of correlations between tariff lines within the group *100% all data 93.3 94.5 95 95 94.6 90.3 93.7 94.9 94.9 95 bovines and beef 95.8 93.2 97.4 93.6 94.2 87.4 94.2 92.1 94.7 94.2 pigs and pork 94.5 92.7 92.7 96.4 90.9 92.7 92.7 89 94.5 92.7 poultry 90.5 94.1 94.9 91.7 94.1 94.4 94 95.2 95.6 93.3 fish 93.3 94.7 94.4 96 94.2 96.5 92.3 94.4 94.7 95.2 seafood 95.4 95.4 94.1 96 95.4 96.1 95.4 91.5 92.8 94.7 milk and cream 90.6 94.6 93.6 97 94.6 74.6 93 95.6 96.3 96.7 buttermilk and butter 93.3 92.5 91.6 95.8 94.1 75.8 89.2 97.5 95 98.3 curd and cheese 94.2 95.8 93.2 95.8 95.3 94.7 93.1 94.7 94.2 95.7 vegetables and mushrooms, perishable 95.6 93.1 96.4 93.8 94.2 98.2 94.2 96 95.6 94.2 vegetables and peas, long storage 93.1 96.7 97.1 96.3 93.4 96.7 94.5 94.9 94.2 94.9 berries 92.6 95.5 95.5 94.8 96.3 75.7 93.4 96.3 95.6 92.6 fruits, fresh 90.8 95.8 95 93.3 96.6 80 99.1 96.6 95 98.3 fruits and nuts, long storage 94.7 92.8 96.7 93.4 96.7 96 100 100 100 53 6 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae study on the degradation effect of plant-derived active ingredients on organophosphorus pesticides jun sun*　tongxin zhang shandong rengjian biotechnology co., ltd., jinan, shandong, 250200, china article info abstract article history received: 19 march 2020 revised: 26 march 2020 accepted: 24 april 2020 published online: 30 april 2020 in order to explore new ways and methods for the degradation of organophosphorus pesticides, the degradation effects of plant-derived active ingredients on three organophosphorus pesticides were studied. rhubarb, pittosporum bark, hibiscus bark, and chinese gall in 9:4:3:2 parts were mixed by mass, ground and soaked in water, and the concentration changes of organic phosphorus pesticide before and after the test were compared through gc-ms quantitative detection method and rapid pesticide residue measurement method to clarify its degradation effect on organophosphorus pesticides. the results showed that the degradation rates of chlorpyrifos and parathion were 93.2% and 92.9% respectively in the extract within 2 minutes; the degradation rate of dichlorvos was 66.67% in the extract within 17 hours, and the degradation rate of chlorpyrifos was 48.69% within 11 hours. this study shows that the extracts of rhubarb, sea tongs bark, hibiscus bark, and gallnut have significant degradation effects on chlorpyrifos, parathion, dichlorvos and other organophosphorus pesticides. keywords: organophosphorus pesticides plant-derived active ingredients pesticide degradation chinese medicine agriculture soil remediation 　 1. introduction as an important means of agricultural production, chemical pesticides play an important role in curbing plant diseases, insect pests and weeds and reducing agricultural production losses. however, long-term excessive and unreasonable application of chemical pesticides has also caused serious impacts on human production, life and the ecological environment. the resulting quality and safety of agricultural products, decline in the quality of cultivated land, agricultural nonpoint source pollution, sudden increase in malignant diseases and environmental hormone problems have caused pay close attention to [1-5]. organophosphorus pesticides are widely used, especially in the field of pesticides, accounting for more than 70% of the total pesticides [6]. the utilization rate of pesticides applied in farmland is 38.8% [7]. most of the pesticides diffuse into the environment, enter the human body through the water vapor cycle and the food chain, endangering health, and because a large amount of pesticides remain in the soil, they become agricultural non-point source pollution. one of the important factors [8-9]. pesticide degradation can be divided into physical methods, chemical methods and biological methods. however, due to factors such as application conditions, use costs, and technological maturity, large-scale promotion and application have not been carried out [8,10], doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.162 *corresponding author: jun sun, shandong rengjian biotechnology co., ltd., jinan, shandong, 250200, china; e-mail: sj@nassg.org 7 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 especially in agricultural production. there is no precedent. at present, biological methods are considered to be an ideal method to reduce pesticide residues due to their significant effect of degrading pesticide residues and low environmental impact. in particular, the screening and application technology research and development of pesticide degrading bacteria have achieved significant research results [8,1012], but these technologies are still in the laboratory development stage. based on the principle of enzymatic degradation of pesticides, this research has developed a unique approach, based on the theory of traditional chinese medicine, prescriptions and years of application practice, to screen and develop plant-derived active ingredients that have rapid and efficient degradation effects on organophosphorus pesticides. after indoor testing and field verification, the effect is remarkable, realizing the cross-border integration of modern agriculture and traditional chinese medicine, and providing a good technical path and basic data support for exploring and applying chinese medicine concepts to promote the harmonious development of “production, life, and ecology”. it has important scientific research and application value. 2. materials and methods 2.1 preparation of plant-derived active ingredients (1) mix and crush the raw materials of traditional chinese medicine such as 180 g of rhubarb, 80 g of sea tongs bark, 60 g of hibiscus bark, 40 g of gallnut, and sieving through 200 mesh. (2) put the powder in a stainless steel container, add 2000 g of water, and heat to 100°c for 30 min. (3) under the condition of full contact with air, cool down naturally (not lower than 5℃ , and let stand for 48 h. (4) filter out the drug solution and dilute it with 5,000 g of clean water (the water temperature is room temperature). 2.2 detection of degradation effect 2.2.1 gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (gc-ms method) march 10, 2018, in the laboratory of the institute of agricultural quality standards and testing technology, shandong academy of agricultural sciences, using agilent 7890a gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, the analytical method quantitatively detects the rapid degradation effect of plant-derived components on organophosphorus pesticides (chlorpyrifos, parathion) [13-15]. (1) prepare a 1 µg/ml mixed standard sample of chlorpyrifos and parathion. (2) take 1 ml of the standard sample and place it in a 20 ml pointed glass test tube, then add 1 ml of plant-derived active ingredient solution, and vortex for 1 min. (3) add 5 ml acetonitrile and 1 g nacl, and vortex for 1 min. (4) centrifuge at 3,000 r/min for 2 min, take it out and place it in a test tube rack. (5) take 1 ml of the supernatant solution after centrifugation in a glass test tube, blow with nitrogen in a 40°c water bath (until it blows dry), and add 2 ml of acetone to make the volume constant. (6) on-machine (agilent 7890a) detection, the injection volume is 2 µl. set 3 repeats. 2.2.2 pesticide residue rapid detection method with leek and chrysanthemum chrysanthemum as the test objects, the nc-800 6-channel intelligent pesticide residue rapid detector is used to detect the degradation effect of plant-derived components on organophosphorus pesticides (dichlorvos, chlorpyrifos). (1) leek-dichlorvos test conditions: on may 6, 2018, the experiment was carried out at the leek base in caiyuan village, zhanglu town, xin county, liaocheng city, shandong province. the base was planted with leek for 2 years, covering an area of 0.33 hm2, with a variety of hanzhong winter leek and a plant height of 15-20 cm., the border is east-west, 25 m long, 2 m wide, and leeks are planted horizontally from north to south. the experiment was carried out on may 6, with real-time temperature 22-25°c, wind force 2-3; 16-17 hours later, sampling and testing. experimental procedure: ① from 15:00 to 16:00 on may 6th, select a leek plot of 20 m2, and spray the leek plants and the ground between rows with 775 mg/l dichlorvos 2,000 ml evenly; ② randomly select 10 m2 of them for test treatment, immediately dilute with plant-derived active ingredients and room temperature water by 4 times, take 400 ml and spray evenly on the leek plants and the ground between rows; the other 10 m2 is used as control i; ③ the same planting conditions of adjacent plots, without spraying dichlorvos and plant-derived active ingredients of leek in the leek border as control ii; ④ from 9 am to 10 am on may 7th, use the 5-point mixed sampling method to collect 1 kg of leek samples in the experimental treatment area, control i area, and control ii area, and put them into plastic sealed bags; at 11 o’clock, use the rapid test method detection of dichlorvos residues doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.162 8 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 in leek samples. let 2 repeats. (2) garland chrysanthemum-chlorpyrifos test conditions: on may 9, 2018, the experiment was carried out at the chrysanthemum chrysanthemum export base in shiziyuan town, xin county, liaocheng city, shandong province. the base planted chrysanthemum chrysanthemum 2.67 hm2, the growth period was 45 days, the plant height was 30-50 cm, and the border was eastwest., 80 m long and 5 m wide, chrysanthemum vulgare was planted vertically from east to west. it was harvested on may 10th as planned. due to accidental spraying during flight, chlorpyrifos exceeded the standard by 16 times. emergency treatment should be taken upon request. the test was carried out at night on may 9. the real-time temperature is 16-18°c, without wind; it will be detected after 10-11 hours. (3) experimental procedure ① set up 3 communities in qitou and qizhong, each of which is about 20 m2; ② at 22:00 on the evening of may 9th, dilute 4 times with plant-derived active ingredients and room temperature water, and spray 1,000 ml evenly on chrysanthemum chrysanthemum plants in the test plot; ③ take the adjacent section on the west side of each plot as a control; ④ at 8:00 on may 10, use the 5-point mixed sampling method to collect 500 g of chrysanthemum chrysanthemum (middle and upper part) samples in the experimental treatment area and the control area, and put them into plastic bags; at 9:00, use the rapid measurement method detection of chlorpyrifos residues in chrysanthemum chrysanthemum samples. 3. results and analysis 3.1 the degradation effect of plant-derived active ingredients on chlorpyrifos and parathion t-test analysis was performed by spss, and the results are shown in table 1. taking the test concentration of the standard sample as the initial concentration (ck), after mixing the chlorpyrifos and parathion standard sample solution with the plant-derived active ingredients for 2 minutes, the degradation rate of chlorpyrifos is 93.6%, the degradation rate of parathion is 92.9%, and the degradation rate of chlorpyrifos and parathion is 92.9%. phosphorus concentration decreased significantly (p<0.01), and the degradation effect was significant; the degradation effects of chlorpyrifos and parathion were equivalent, and the difference did not reach a significant level (t=2.347, p=0.079) table 1. degradation effects of plant-derived active ingredients on chlorpyrifos and parathion (indoor) species test repeat concentration/(µg/ml) mean/(µg/ml)±standard deviation degradation rate/% samples 1 0.9635 0.9653±0.0047a2 0.9706 3 0.9618 chlorpyrifos 1 0.0983 0.0962±0.0032b 93.62 0.0978 3 0.0925 parathion 1 0.1039 0.1031±0.0039b 92.92 0.1065 3 0.0988 3.2 the field degradation effect of plant-derived active ingredients on dichlorvos and chlorpyrifos it can be seen from table 2 that the control ii leek sample is 1.01%, the control leek sample is 19.00%, and the experimental treatment leek sample is 6.11%. the results show that the plant-derived active ingredients have a significant effect on dichlorvos under natural conditions in the field, within 17 hours the degradation rate reached 66.67%. table 2. degradation effect of plant-derived active ingredients on dichlorvos (field) species test repeat inhibition rate/% mean/% degradation rate/% cki 1 0.48 1.01 2 1.54 ckii 1 20.41 19.00 2 17.59 test treatment 1 11.89 6.11 66.67 2 0.32 it can be seen from table 3 that after emergency treatment, the concentration of chlorpyrifos on chrysanthemum chrysanthemum was significantly reduced. after 10 to 11 hours, the degradation rate exceeded 48.7%. because 100% of the pesticide residue concentration has exceeded the instrument range, it is impossible to obtain a relatively accurate value. although it is impossible to perform an accurate significance test and analysis, it is inferred from the data distribution that there should be a significant difference between the two. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.162 9 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 table 3. degradation effect of plant-derived active ingredients on chlorpyrifos (field) species test repeat inhibition rate/% mean/% degradation rate/% test treatment 1 52.16 46.83 48.692 46.41 3 41.92 ck 1 73.77 91.262 100 3 100 4. conclusion this study shows that the extract obtained from rhubarb, sea tongs bark, hibiscus bark, and chinese gall according to the fixed mass ratio has a significant degradation effect on chlorpyrifos, parathion, dichlorvos and other organophosphorus pesticides, and the degradation rate is extremely fast. especially when organophosphorus pesticides are fully mixed, the degradation efficiency exceeds 90% in 2 minutes. in view of the rapid and significant degradation effect of this plant-derived component on organophosphorus pesticides, it has broad application prospects in farmland soil remediation, elimination of pesticide residues in fresh fruits and vegetables, production of organophosphorus toxic compounds and emergency treatment of leakage, clinical poisoning rescue, etc. 5. discussion organophosphorus pesticides are widely used. with the increase of pest resistance, the amount and frequency of application continue to increase, which has a greater impact on the environment and poses an acute risk of poisoning to the human body [16]. pesticide biodegradation technology is a hotspot of global technology research in the field in recent years [17-18]. obligate and broad-spectrum microbial species with obvious enzymatic degradation of organophosphorus have also been screened from soil and water, including bacteria, fungi, actinomycetes and algae. among them, the research on bacteria is the most in-depth [17], such as the more representative pseudomonas in bacteria, which has good degradation of malathion, dichlorvos, phorate, and methyl parathion effect. liu yuhuan et al. [19] conducted a detailed study on methamidophos-degrading fungi, wang baihui et al. reviewed the mechanism of soil enzyme degradation of pesticides by microorganisms [20], zhao renbang et al. [21] degraded methylamine by penicillium oxalicum zhj6 the application method of phosphorus was studied. biazyme is a fermentation product produced by microorganisms selected from the soil. as a result of the “863 program” project, it has been exclusively produced by beijing sengenbia biotechnology co., ltd. since 2012. it is used for civilian purposes. it is against dichlorvos, chlorpyrifos, and mala. the average degradation effect of thion, fenthion, and methyl parathion reaches 70%, and a number of patented technologies such as “methyl parathion hydrolase mutant with improved enzymatic performance and its application” have been developed [22]. up to now, there are few research literatures on the application of pure plant-derived ingredients to degrade organophosphorus pesticides and other types of pesticides. as a brand-new concept in the development of modern agriculture, tcm agriculture is of great significance to promoting the sustainable development of agriculture [23]. in traditional chinese medicine, there are many formulas and cases of applying chinese medicine to detoxify. edible proteases are extracted from pineapple, papaya and other fruits to develop detergents that can degrade vegetable pesticide residues, such as methamidophos, omethoate, dichlorvos, and chlorpyrifos. the degradation rate of other pesticides reaches more than 90% [24]; different concentrations of tea tree oil and water-soluble tea tree oil are used to soak and clean the cowpea sprayed with pesticides. the results show that 0.8% of water-soluble tea oil has the best effect in removing pesticide residues. excellent, the pesticide removal rates for triazophos, malathion, and chlorpyrifos are 82.79%, 94.54%, and 84.58%, respectively [25]. although many kinds of microorganisms and plant extracts that degrade pesticides have been screened out, it can be seen from the existing literature that these research results have not yet been applied on a large scale. as the most stable and effective organophosphorus pesticide degradation enzyme at present, biazyme is affected by factors such as raw materials, production methods, yield and cost, and its application range is limited. the plant-derived ingredients in the traditional chinese medicine prescriptions used in this study have a wide range of sources and have equivalent functional alternatives, which can be mass-produced at low cost. after 11 years of field application, the effect is significant and stable. for the first time in this study, the principles and techniques of detoxification of traditional chinese medicine were applied to the degradation of chemical pesticides. the prescriptions of traditional chinese medicines that can efficiently degrade organophosphorus pesticides were screened out, and more systematic production processes, products and supporting application technologies were developed, which can be applied to farmland. degradation of pesticide residues in doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.162 10 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 contaminated soil, degradation of pesticide residues on agricultural products, water environment disinfection, and emergency treatment of organophosphorus pesticides (factories) leakage. the field application initially shows that this plant-derived ingredient has a certain degradation effect on carbamates, sulfonylurea pesticides and herbicides, and scientific experiments are needed to prove it; at the same time, the mechanism of action of this ingredient needs further research. references [1] lin zhengping. current status and treatment measures of non-point source pollution of pesticides in heilongjiang province[j]. pesticide science and management, 2017(12): 9-10+14. [2] liao xiaobin, chen meiqiu, li zhipeng, et al. discussion on cultivated land quality protection incentive countermeasures based on the perspective of farmers’ use of pesticides and fertilizers[j]. zhejiang agricultural sciences, 2017(4): 673-676+678. [3] gu xiaojun, tian sufen. pesticides and cancer[j]. world science and technology research and development, 2005 (2): 47-52. [4] hu xu, li lu, zhang qinfa, etc. analysis of the impact of environmental hormone pollutants on food safety[j].food industry,2014 (9):230-234. [5] cheng yan, tan lichao, zhou junying, et al. screening of the priority list of environmental hormone pesticides in my country[j]. pesticide science and management, 2017(4): 28-35. [6] run wanming, jiang yiqun. discussion on some problems of organophosphorus pesticides[j]. inner mongolia petrochemical industry, 2001(27): 52-54 [7] yang guang. ministry of agriculture and rural affairs: my country’s pesticide utilization rate has reached 38.8% [j]. pesticide market information, 2018(11): 11-12. [8] teng ruiju, wang xuemei, wang huan, et al. research progress in the degradation and metabolism of organophosphorus pesticides[j]. gansu science and technology, 2016(4): 46-50. [9] sun b, zhang l x, yang l z, et al. agricultural nonpoint source pollution in china: causes and mitigation measures. ambio, 2012(4):370-379. [10] wang shenghui, zhang chen, yan yanchun. research progress in the microbial degradation of organophosphorus pesticides[j]. biotechnology, 2006 (3): 95-97. [11] liang yibo, tan xinghe, hu wangzi, etc. research progress on degradation methods of pesticide residues in vegetables[j].food research and development,2015(6):135-138. [12] yan yanchun, qiao chuanling, zhou xiaotao. high enzyme activity of an engineered bacteria and degradation of pesticides by immobilized cells[j]. china environmental science, 2011(5): 461-465. [13] zhu he, ji mingshan. the latest development of pesticide residue rapid detection technology [j]. chinese agricultural science bulletin, 2014(4): 242-250. [14] yu hong, chen an, li xiaojing, et al. determination of 33 organophosphorus pesticide residues in vegetables by solid phase extraction combined with gas chromatography[j]. chinese journal of food hygiene, 2011(4): 330-334 . [15] gb/t 5009.20-2003, determination of organophosphorus pesticide residues in foods, issued on august 11, 2003, and implemented on january 1, 2004. [16] wang wei, he hongwu, wang lieping, et al. organophosphorus pesticides and their research and development overview[j]. pesticides, 2016(2): 86-90. [17] you minsheng, liu xin. biodegradation and bioremediation of pesticide pollution[j]. journal of ecology, 2004(1): 73-77. [18] gu yue, jiang hua. microbial degradation of pesticide contaminated soil[j]. liaoning agricultural sciences, 2013(4): 52-55. [19] liu yuhuan, zhong yingchang. study on methamidophos degrading fungi[j]. china environmental science, 1999(2): 172-175. [20] wang baihui, jiao hao, liu baolin, et al. research progress in the mechanism of soil enzymes on pesticide degradation[j]. chinese agricultural science bulletin, 2012(32): 253-257. [21] zhao renbang, jin cunhua, liu weihua. immobilization of penicillium oxalicum zhj6 on the degradation of methamidophos pesticides[j]. chinese agricultural science bulletin, 2012(26): 247-251. [22] gong xiaojie, li ligong, li guanglei. methyl parathion hydrolase mutant with improved enzymatic performance and its application [p], national invention patent (substantial examination), application number: 201710505744.2, publication number: 107189993a. [23] zhang lijian, zhu lizhi, wang liping. thoughts on developing “chinese medicine agriculture” to promote sustainable agricultural development[j]. china agricultural information, 2016(11): 3-4. [24] zuo changrui. new degrading enzymes effectively remove pesticide residues in vegetables[j]. science and technology daily, 2011(8):53. [25] lin lijing, cheng shenghua, li jihua, et al. the effect of tea tree oil on removing pesticide residues from cowpea[j]. transactions of the chinese society of agricultural engineering, 2013(3): 273-278. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.162 32 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.385 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae effect of polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer on peppers and disease in acid field ding wanhua agricultural rural service center, bolao town, lingshan county, guangxi province, china 535429 article info abstract article history received: 22 april 2021 accepted: 20 may 2021 published online: 31 may 2021 based on conventional fertilization, the effects of different amounts of polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer on the prevention and control of pepper disease were studied. the results of the experiment showed that the application of alkaline conditioning fertilizer to peppers had a remarkable effect on growth and development, increasing yield, increasing income and controlling disease. and the effect of applying 2100 kg/hm2 was the best, of 2625 kg/hm2 decreased, and of more than 1575 kg/hm2 was obvious. the yield of applying 2100kg/hm2 was 58069.7kg/hm2, and the net benefit was 468325.0 rmb/hm2. the yield increased by 46.0%, 29.2%, 16.1% and 2.0% respectively compared with treatment 1,2,3 and 5, with significant difference; the net benefit increased by 47.6%, 30.4%, 16.8% and 2.4% respectively. the results are similar to those of the plot tests, and the application rate of the polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer is 2,100kg/hm2. it is suggested that the same area in southern china can be used for reference. keywords: organic fertilizer alkaline conditioning fertilizer pepper yield benefit disease control 　 1. introduction lingshan county, guangxi is located in the south subtropical zone, with good temperature, light, water and heat resources. it is very suitable for developing autumn and winter agriculture. pepper is the pillar industry of local characteristic economy, and is the important source of farmers’ income. however, since autumn and winter peppers cultivation was developed from the 1990s, only one time medium rice and one time autumn and winter peppers have been planted per year, long term and repeated cultivation has made soil-borne diseases more and more serious. and the soil has been acidic and the effective content of medium elements lacked {1, 2}, which seriously inhibited the improvement of pepper yield, quality and benefit. in order to explore the ways to repair the soil environment and optimize the cultivation technology of pepper, the experiment and display comparison of the alkaline conditioning fertilizer applied to pepper were carried out on the basis of conventional fertilization, and the effects of the application on the prevention, control and suppression of pepper’s diseases were studied. 2. materials and methods 2.1 basic conditions of test soil the experiment and demonstration were carried out at the planting base of pepper in liuxiang village, bolao town, lingshan county, guangxi province. the cultivation system of the base was as follows: each year, only one time medium rice and one time autumn and winter peppers were planted, and the cycle was repeated. the soil is a granitic parent material and periodical water-logging sand mud field, with a soil layer thickness of 20cm. the soil contains organic matter 34.3g/kg, total *about the author: ding wanhua (1978–), male, native of lingshan county, guangxi, agronomist, engaged in agricultural technology promotion 33 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.385 nitrogen (n)1.48g/kg, total phosphorus (p)0.72g/kg, total potassium (k)9.2g/kg, alkalizing nitrogen (n)184mg/kg, available phosphorus (p)46mg/kg, available potassium (k)201mg/kg, available calcium 128mg/kg, available magnesium 31mg/kg, available silicon 422mg/kg, available sulfur 42mg/kg, available boron 0.29mg/kg, and available zinc 0.31mg/kg.ph 5.4; the yield of the preceding rice was 430 kg. 2.2 test materials (1) polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer (containing organic matter ≥ 14%, cao ≥ 26%, mgo ≥ 12%, sio2 ≥ 25%, p2o5 ≥ 12%, alkaline conditioning active compound, bacillus subtilis, etc.); (2) conventional fertilization: farmyard fertilizer 7500kg/hm2, urea 225kg/hm2, calcium superphosphate 1125kg/hm2, compound fertilizer 1125kg/hm2 (n 18%, p2o5 7%, k2o 20%); (3) pepper variety: line pepper no. 8; planted on november 3, 2019. 2.3 test design and method five treatments shall be set in the plot test, namely: 1. conventional fertilization; 2. conventional fertilization + polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer 1050kg/ hm2; 3. conventional fertilization + polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer 1575kg/hm2; 4. conventional fertilization + polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer 2100kg/hm2; 5. conventional fertilization + polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer 2625kg/hm2. three repetitions were operated, with each plot 72m2, and random block was arranged. cultivation management: farmyard fertilizer, urea, calcium perphosphate, compound fertilizer, polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer as base fertilizer, were sprayed as foliar fertilizer 5 times for each treatment, and other cultivation managements are same. each plot is 15m long×1.2m wide (including ditch) ×4 qi (a rectangular piece of land in a field, separated by ridges), each of which was 0.9m wide. the planting row spacing 35cm × plant spacing 40cm, and 336 pepper plants were planted in each plot. the display contrast treatment and cultivation management are the same as the plot test. each display treatment area is 300m2 without repetition. 3. results and analysis 3.1 plot test effect 3.1.1 good effect on pepper character formation according to the observation and sampling survey in table 1, 4 treatments with polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer had positive effects on the good formation of economic characters. among them, treatment 4 showed the best, treatment 5 overfertilized, and the effect decreased compared with treatment 4. compared with each other: the fruit number per plant of treatment 4 increased by 11, 8, 5 and 1 respectively compared with treatment 1, 2, 3 and 5. there was no significant difference in analysis of variance between treatment 4 and treatment 5, but very significant difference between 4 and the others. the single fruit weight of treatment 4 increased by 2.9g, 2.0g, 1.1g and 0.0g respectively compared with 1, 2, 3 and 5, and the difference compared with treatment 1, 2 and 3 was very significant. the fruit length of treatment 4 increased by 5.8cm, 3.0cm, 1.9cm and 0.3cm respectively compared with 1, 2, 3 and 5, and the difference compared with treatment 5 was not significant, but was very significant with the others. the fruit pitch diameter was same between treatment 4 and 5, thicker 0.6cm, 0.3cm and 0.2cm respectively than treatment 1, 2 and 3. table 1. economic characters of pepper treatment number of plants (zone) fruit number per plant (pcs) single fruit weight (g) fruit length (cm) fruit pitch diameter (cm) 1 336 40dd 21.5dd 28.2dd 2.0 2 336 43 cc 22.4cc 31.0cc 2.3 3 336 46bb 23.3bb 32.1bb 2.4 4 336 51aa 24.4aa 34.0aa 2.6 5 336 50aa 24.4aa 33.7aa 2.6 note:15 strains were sampled at fixed point in each plot 3.1.2 good effect on the prevention and control of pepper disease after the middle period of pepper growth, the occurrence of pepper disease was investigated once every 10 days and 4 times continuously. the investigation results (see table 2) showed that only treatment 1 and treatment 2 had umbilical rot, blight, anthracnose, blight, gray mold, scab and bacterial wilt. the average incidence rates of umbilical rot, blight, anthracnose, blight, gray mold, scab and bacterial wilt of treatment 1 were 6.7%, 3.9%, 4.4%, 3.6%, 1.4%, 0.9% and 1.4% respectively. those of treatment 2 were 0.4%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. the results showed that the application of polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer had a good effect on the prevention and control of pepper disease. 34 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 3.1.3 significant increase in pepper production according to the statistical results of yield in table 3, the yield increase of treatment 4 was the best, the yield was as high as 58069.7 kg/hm2. compared with treatment 1, 2, 3 and 5, the treatment 4 yield increased 18305.6 kg/ hm2, 13125.0 kg/hm2, 8055.6 kg/hm2 and 1138.9 kg/hm2 respectively, with the increase rate 46.0%, 29.2%, 16.1% and 2.0% respectively, and the differences were all very significant. compared with treatment 4, treatment 5 increased the amount of fertilizer but failed to achieve the desired yield increase, and the yield decreased. from the comparison of yield, it is suitable to control the application amount of polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer at 2100 kg/hm2. the main reason why the application of polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer can increase production and prevent and control diseases is that calcium can neutralize the insoluble organic calcium and soil acid produced by crop metabolism, adjust ph value for crop growth, and supplement the nutrients such as calcium and magnesium to balance the nutrients in the soil, improving the nutritional status and benefit the robust growth of the peppers. magnesium can enhance the photosynthesis of peppers and play an important role in carbohydrate metabolism, promoting the growth and development of peppers. silicon can increase the content of soil salt base, promote the decomposition of organic fertilizer and inhibit soil germs. it can make the epidermal cells of crops siliceous and improve the resistance to insect and disease {3-5}. polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer contains bacillus subtilis, which has the following effects. firstly, it can inhibit the growth and metabolism of pathogenic microorganisms by producing metabolites at low concentration, thus affecting the survival and activity of pathogenic microorganisms. secondly, it can induce the resistance of plants and promote the growth of plants by adsorbing the mycelium of pathogenic bacteria to produce lytic substances, resulting in the leakage of protoplasm, causing the mycelium to break, or to produce antibacterial substances, through dissolving the cell walls or cell membranes of pathogenic bacteria spores, causing the perforation and deformity of cell wall to inhibit the spore generation. thirdly, bacillus subtilis can produce substances similar to cytokinin and plant growth hormone to promote plant growth and enhance its ability to resist pathogenic bacteria. fourthly, it can protect the environment; when bacillus subtilis is combined with organic fertilizer to act on crops or soil, it can colonize the rhizosphere or body of crops, purify and repair the soil, reduce the occurrence of crop diseases and facilitate pepper growth. the combination of organic matter and inorganic fertilizer in the fertilizer has long effect, which is beneficial to the steady growth and increase the yield of pepper. 3.1.4 obvious increase in peppers’ economic benefit from table 4, after deduction of fertilizer and labor cost, treatment 4 had the best benefit, and the net benefit of treatment 4 increased 47.6%, 30.4%, 16.8% and 2.4% table 2. occurrence of pepper disease treatment umbilical rot plant rate (%) blight plant rate (%) anthracnose plant rate (%) blight plant rate (%) grey mould disease plant rate (%) scab disease plant rate (%) bacterial wilt plant rate (%) 1 6.7 3.9 4.4 3.6 1.4 0.9 1.4 2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 3 4 5 note: investigate each treatment plot for an average table 3. pepper yield statistic treatment plot yield yield discount (kg/hm2) to 1 ratio with a 4 ratio i ii iii average (kg) (%) (kg) (%) 1 288.0 286.5 284.4 286.3ee 39764.1 0.0 0.0 -18305.6 -46.0 2 325.0 323.8 322.0 323.6dd 44944.7 5180.6 13.0 -13125.0 -29.2 3 360.5 361.0 358.8 360.1cc 50014.1 10250.0 25.8 -8055.6 -16.1 4 418.0 417.3 419.0 418.1aa 58069.7 18305.6 46.0 0.0 0.0 5 409.2 408.6 411.9 409.9bb 56930.8 17166.7 43.2 -1138.9 -2.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.385 35 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 respectively compared with treatment 1, 2, 3 and 5. treatment 5 increased the amount of fertilizer, but compared with treatment 4, its benefit showed negative effect. the results showed that it was the best when the application rate of polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer was 2100kg/hm2. 3.2 the comparison results displayed the results of comparative yield (see table 5) displayed that the yield of treatment 4 was the highest, reaching 57908.0 kg/hm2, and the net benefit was 466,950.5 rmb/hm2; treatment 4 increased 48.5%, 31.6%, 15.6% and 1.9% respectively compared with treatment 1, 2, 3 and 5, and the net benefit increased 50.2%, 33.0%, 16.2% and 2.3% respectively. the comparison results displayed of the pepper are similar to those of the plot test and have good reproducibility. 4. conclusion (1) on the basis of conventional fertilization, the application of polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer to peppers obviously promoted the formation of economic characters of peppers, and the effect was the best when the application amount was 2100 kg/hm2, and decreased when table 4. economic benefit comparison of pepper treatment output value (rmb/hm2) adult (rmb/hm2) net benefit (rmb/hm2) with a 4 ratio mulch machine ploughing seed fat medicine picking total (rmb/hm2) (%) 1 337994.9 1500 1500 1500 15157.5 1000 20657.5 317337.4 -150987.6 -47.6 2 382030.0 1500 1500 1500 17362.5 1000 22862.5 359167.5 -109157.5 -30.4 3 425120.0 1500 1500 1500 18465.0 1100 24065.0 401055.0 -67270.0 -16.8 4 493592.5 1500 1500 1500 19767.5 1200 25267.5 468325.0 0.0 0.0 5 483911.8 1500 1500 1500 20870.0 1200 26370.00 457541.8 -10783.2 -2.4 note: farmyard fertilizer is 0.7 rmb/kg, compound fertilizer is 3.0 rmb/kg, urea is 2.2 rmb/kg, phosphate fertilizer is 0.7 rmb/kg, conditioning fertilizer is 2.1 rmb/kg; foliar fertilizer is 1500 rmb/hm2, spraying fertilizer is 2250 rmb/hm2, pesticide and spraying artificial is 1500 rmb/hm2; comprehensive price of pepper is 8.5 rmb/kg. table 5. the comparison results displayed treatment yield output value total cost net benefits with a 4 ratio (kg/hm2) (rmb/hm2) (rmb/hm2) (rmb/hm2) (rmb/hm2) (%) 1 39001.7 331514.5 20657.5 310857.0 -156093.5 -50.2 2 43998.3 373985.6 22862.5 351123.1 -115827.4 -33.0 3 50101.5 425862.8 24065.0 401797.8 -65152.7 -16.2 4 57908.0 492218.0 25267.5 466950.5 0.0 0.0 5 56801.2 482810.2 26370.0 456440.2 -10510.3 -2.3 2625 kg/hm2. (2) the application of polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer to peppers could obviously promote the increase of yield and income. among the four application levels, the effect was the best in 2,100 kg/hm2, decreased in 2,625 kg/hm2 which was excessive. the yield was 58069.7 kg/hm2 when 2100 kg/hm2 was applied, and the net benefit was 468325.0 rmb/hm2. the yield of treatment 4 was 46.0%, 29.2%, 16.1% and 2.0% higher than those of treatment 1, 2, 3 and 5, respectively, and he net benefits increased 47.6%, 30.4%, 16.8% and 2.4% respectively. (3) the application of polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer had better control and inhibition effect on the occurrence of cord rot, epidemics, anthracnose, blight, gray mold, scab and bacterial wilt of pepper disease, which was beneficial to the robust growth of the peppers. (4) the comparison results are similar to those of the plot test and have good reproducibility. according to the results of the plot test and demonstration, the effect was best when the application rate of polymerized alkaline conditioning fertilizer was 2100 kg/hm2. it is suggested that similar areas in the south of china can be used to improve the planting efficiency. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.385 36 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 references [1] hu baodi, huang xia, liao riyan, et al. effects of different amounts of organic calcium, magnesium and boron fertilizer on pepper yield and benefits [j]. agricultural science and technology communication, 2017, (7): 205-207. [2] huang kuanyao. effect of different amounts of organic calcium, magnesium, boron, zinc and copper fertilizer on yield efficiency of winter peppers [j]. agricultural science and technology communication, 2020, (3):119-122. [3] liu xunzhong, liang changgui. study on effect of calcium-silicon magnesium fertilizer on super rice in acid paddy soil [j]. agricultural science and technology communication, 2013, (2): 34-37. [4] chang yanli. effect of bga soil conditioner on pepper and soil physical and chemical properties [j]. soil fertilizers, 2015, (1): 28-30. [5] shen wensheng, wang yinling, fang nenggan, et al. effect of soil conditioner applied with “shidijia” in acid paddy field [j]. anhui agricultural science, 2015, (25):158-159. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.385 23 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.345 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae adsorption equilibrium, physicochemical parameters and colour deactivation effects of activated carbon for dye for waste water treatment alhassan, m1*　muhammad sani aleiro2　umar, a.u1 1. department of chemistry, sokoto state university. sokoto-nigeria. 2. department of chemistry, kebbi state university of science and technology, aleiro. aleiro kebbi state nigeria. article info abstract article history received: 1 december 2020 accepted: 8 january 2021 published online: 30 march 2021 effluents from dye and dyeing industries constitute serious environmental threat and attracting serious attention. activated carbon prepared from guinea corn husk and maize cobs waste materials was used as a precursor to prepare activated carbon. variable ratios of the constituent ashes ( 1:1, 1:3 and 3:1) were prepared. the husk and cobs were ashed in a murfle furnace at 400-500oc for 2.5 h. acid activation was carried out by washing with hcl (1m) after which it was characterized using xrf which revealed (in variable proportions) the presence of sio2, al2o3 and fe2o3 as dominant oxides in the ashes. waste water decolourization efficiency of the adsorbents was tested using dye waste water at same contact time using variable absorbent dosage. higher moisture (96.80±0.56), ash (12.90±0.35), ph (6.3±0.17), conductivity (208±1.34) and bulk density (12.27±0.61) were obtained for guinea corn husk. the best clearity was obtained after batch adsorption experiments at 1:1 which gave the highest adsorption at equilibrium (qe) of 28.55 compared to 12.750 and 10.900 obtained for 1;3 and 3:1 respectively. keywords: adsorption equilibrium dye waste water activated carbon decolourization 　 1. introduction activated carbon has been utilized for different purposes by several authors as a highly porous, high surface-area adsorptive material with a largely amorphous structure. it is composed primarily of aromatic configurations of carbon atoms joined by random cross-linkages [1]. it is also a carbonaceous material with a large internal surface area and highly developed porous structure resulting from the processing of raw materials under high temperature reactions. it is about 87% to 97% carbon but also contains other elements depending on the processing method used and raw material it is derived from [2]. activated carbon, activated charcoal or activated coal is a form of carbon that has been processed to make it extremely porous and thus to have a very large surface area available for adsorption of chemicals [3], heavy metals [4] toxic chemicals, separation of gases, recovery of solvents, removal of organic pollutants, petrochemicals etc. according to bansal [5], activated carbon is well known for its porosity and adsorption capacity thus it is used in environmental pollution control as well as in industry for various liquid and gas phase adsorptions. removal of dye in aqueous solutions is tedious to achieve due probably to their low concentration in aqueous solutions, inert synthetic properties as well as resis*corresponding author: alhassan, m, department of chemistry, sokoto state university. sokoto-nigeria; e-mail: mansuralhassan@gmail.com 24 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 tance among others [6-7]. efforts put in place to remove dyes from aqueous solutions include ion exchange (labanda et al.[8], photocatalytic degradation (lenzy et al. [9], coagulation (shi et al. [10], physicochemical treatment (akrabi et al.[11] ; pia et al.[12], adsorption (han et al.[13]; shen et al.[14]; lazim et al.[15], electrochemical (tadda et al.[7] and mittal, [16] among others. the method of adsorption stands advantageous over the other ones, due to its effectiveness, ease of handling and dye removal, low operational cost in addition to being operated at low dye concentrations (ngah et al.[17]; mahmoodi et al,[18]; kiakhani et al.[19]. absorbents for decolourization of waste water effluents from chemical industries are increasingly getting attention. synthesized active components of these adsorbents are readily available and effective for dye/waste treatments, but are expensive [20]. on the other hand, naturally active plant materials (ranging from leaves, seeds, barks etc) have been tested for decolourization and most were reported to show excellent decolourization effect on waste water, but the rate of activity is reported to be slow and much of the adsorbent is required to treat less amount of water [20]. water continues to be an essential supporter of all forms of plant and animal life. in recent years, increasing awareness of organic and inorganic compounds, especially heavy metals that pollute the environment has prompted the purification of waste water before discharge into natural waters. a number of conventional methods of treatment technologies have been considered for treatment of waste water contaminated with organic /inorganic substances. accordingly, there is still need to develop adsorbents containing active synthetic compounds impregnated over natural support like carbonized charcoal from guinea corn husk and maize cobs which are cheaper (than their synthesized counterparts), more eco-friendlier, faster (than traditional) from readily available waste materials [19,20]. 2. dye waste water/ activated carbon precursors waste water treatments especially of dyeing industry, consist of steps taken to utilize coloured waste water from dyeing/dye bath containing variety of dyes in different concentrations. this treatment process become necessary as there is need to decolourize (remove dye colour) prior to discharge of the waste water in order to minimize pollution; as per regustatutory environmental guidelines [12]. furthermore, sensitivity of the dye colour to intensification, especially in the presence of mordants (materials such as sodium sulphate, added to dye bath to control or promote action of a textile dye) used during dyeing process may add to the harmful nature of improperly handled dyes [15]. a large amount of highly coloured waste water is discharged from textile and dyeing mills. aziz and co-workers [20], reported that biological treatment methods are usually cheap and easy to apply, but these processes are generally only efficient in biochemical oxygen demand (bod)and suspended solids removal but largely ineffective for decolourization of the effluents. this paper is aimed at the development of activated carbons from corn cobs and assessment of their efficiency for removing heavy metals from polluted minerals processing wastewater. a two-step activation process: carbonisation of samples of corn cobs followed by steam activation of the derived char at various durations of activation was used to obtain activated carbons of different surface areas and pore characteristics. the activated carbons were contacted with a solution containing appreciable levels of heavy metals to assess their heavy metal adsorption efficiencies [21]. many attempts were carried out in order to obtain a low cost activated carbon from agricultural waste ; almost any carbonaceous materials, with high carbon content and low inorganic components, may be used as precursor for the preparation of activated carbons such as coconut shell, corn cob, rice husk, millet husk maze husk and guinea corn husks etc [22]. the activated carbon required for most industries (e.g., oil and gas, food, pharmaceutical, water and wastewater treatment, and gold recovery) is imported from countries such as china, sri lanka and the netherlands at great expense. there is an opportunity to reduce the cost of these processes by producing activated carbon in nigeria using domestically sourced raw material [23]. although high dependence on imported activated carbon is reportedly linked to the minimal research in the field, odebunmi and okeola [24] and itodo [25] worked on comparative studies on the preparation, adsorption and evaluation of activated carbon from selected agricultural wastes. 3. experimental 3.1 methods (1) sample procurement/treatment maize cobs and guinea corn husk and dye waste water (effluents) were obtained from a farm along dundaye area and dyeing spot in sokoto respectively. methylene blue doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.345 25 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 dye was purchased from a chemical store in sokoto state, nigeria. the methods of [25-28] were adopted to remove surface impurities as well as sand, the cobs and husks were washed with clean water, filtered, sun-dried and oven-dried (overnight) at 1050c followed by grinding and sieving to particle sizes < 2mm aperture sieve. figure 1. guinea corn husk (a) and maize cobs (b) prior to ashing and after ashing (c); and (d) respectively. (2) carbonization/activation three (3) sets of pre-weighed ashing crucibles were labelled a, b and c. a contained 50wt% each of maize cobs/guinea corn husk equally mixed in 1:1 ratio. b contains weight ratio of 1:3 having 25wt% to 75wt% of maize cobs/giunea corn husk while c contains 3;1 (75wt% to 25wt%) weight ratio of maize cobs/guinea corn husk . the ashing was carried out 400-500oc for 2.5 h in a muffle furnace. cooling and heating was repeatedly done until constant weights of carbonized samples were obtained as reported by [25,28] . the carbonized samples were washed using 10% hcl to remove surface ash, followed by hot water washing and rinsing with distilled water to remove residual acid [29] .the solid residues were then air-dried, and ovendried in the 105oc for 1h [24]. (3) carbonization yield the yield on carbonization was calculated from the weight, before carbonization (wbc) and after carbonization (wac). the % yield is calculated using the method reported by [31]. yield (%) = wac/wbc x 100 (1) wac = weight after carbonization wbc = weight before carbonization methylene blue standards / adsorption test (w/v) methylene blue (100 g) was dissolved in distilled water in 1000 cm3 volumetric flask and made to the mark. this solution was used for serial dilutions to prepare 100, 80, 60, 40 and 20g/dm3 standards. accurately weighed 0.2g of each sorbent was placed in 20ml each of solution containing 10-50mgl-1 of mb and left to equilibrate for 8 hours [26] after standing filtration was done and the absorbance of the filtrate (at 630nm wavelength) was measured using uv-vis spectrophotometer [26]. 3.2 characterization x-ray diffraction was determined using according to the method of alhassan et al. [32] its source of radiation is cu-kα or alkα radiation. the spectra presents the intensity in counts per seconds (cps) against 2ø degrees diffraction angle where the most intense peak is us the xrd patterns were measured in the 2θ range of 20o-120o at a scan rate of 1 and 4o/min. the ftir analysis was carried out using using cary 630 model spectrophotometer. the scanning electron micsroscopy (sem) spectra of the activated carbon fractions used in this work was recorded using a sem leica 440 instrument at accelerating voltage 10 kv and magnification 500x. 3.3 results table 1. physicochemical properties of maize cobs/ guinea corn husk ash parameters maize cobs guinea corn husk residual moisture (%) 92.40±1.25 96.80±0.56 ash (%) 7.3±0.41 12.90±0.35 ph 5.1±0.45 6.3±0.17 conductivity (ʯs/cm) 167±0.82 208±1.34 bulk density (%) 10.13±0.12 12.27±0.61 table 2. adsorption equilibrium (qe) at 660 nm molar ratio(s) weight added (g) ce qe 3 0.453 -6.459 1:1 2 0.487 -11.084 1 0.520 28.550 3 0.786 -12.009 1:3 2 0.801 -18.934 1 0.836 12.750 3 0.801 -12.259 3:1 2 0.827 -19.634 1 0.873 10.900 co was taken as the average absorbance for the methylene standard (100,80,60,40 20 and 0g/dm3; variable weights were used in the equation qe=(co-ce)v/w. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.345 26 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 table 3. xrf analysis (composition of major elements/ oxides) in activated charcoal samples major oxide/element composition (%) a (1:1) maize/ guinea corn b (1:3) maize/ guinea corn c (3:1) maize/ guinea corn fe2o3 3.2851 3.26 2.1180 mgo 1.16 0.41 0.81 al2o3 3.356 2.600 3.166 sio2 83.951 87.53 75.417 traces 8.2479 6.200 18.489 others = trace amounts of about 20 oxides ranging from zro2, y2o3, sro, rbo2, br, as2o3, ceo2, la2o3, etc table 4. yield of recovered absorbent from the ashes initial adsorbent dose (g) sample mass recovered (g) yield (%) a (1:1) 0.09 9.79 1 b (1:3) 0.0732 7.32 c (3:1) 0.0667 6.67 a (1:1) 0.213 10.65 2 b (1:3) 0.195 9.75 c (3:1) 0.108 5.40 a (1:1) 0.4794 15.98 3 b (1:3) 0.5031 16.77 c (3:1) 0.4092 13.64 figure 2. dye waste water before (e) and after (f) adsorbent decolourization 4. discussion table 1 presents the physicochemical properties of the prepared adsorbents. the residual moisture content of guinea corn husk (96.80 ±0.56) is above that of maize cobs (92.40±1.25). the quality of guinea corn husk in terms of ash (12.90±0.35) is also above 7.3±0.4 as well. residual moisture of 1.04±0.15 and 6.00±0.12 was reported by umar et al. [30] for white grubs. the guinea corn husk also gave a higher ph (6.3±0.17), c o n d u c t i v i t y ( 2 0 8 ± 1 . 3 4 ) a s w e l l a s b u l k d e n s i t y (12.27±0.61). by the physicochemical parameters of the adsorbents, the maize cobs, being lighter than guinea corn husk and having the least moisture (92.40±1.25), could withstand long storage than guinea corn husk without spoilage. this is probably why the ash content of 7.3±0.41 was recorded against 12.90±0.35 for guinea corn husk. accordingly, the high ph value (6.3±0.17) recorded for guinea corn husk ensures that the guinea corn husk adsorbs the acid to a slower extent than maize cobs, which on the other hand, is more acidic (with a ph of 5.1±0.45). the bulk density for guinea corn husk (12.27±0.61) overshadows that of maize cobs (10.13±0.12)and that practically, entails that guinea corn husk is heavier than maize cobs, being denser. table 2 displays the values for adsorption equilibrium (qe) at 660 nm. variable adsorbent dosage (1g, 2g and 3g) of each molar ratio was used to test its efficiency for dye waste water decolourization under same condition. their initial and final absorbance was used to estimate the qe values. it is clear that the highest equilibrium for adsorption was reached at 1:1 with qe value of 28.55, this is supported by the percentage yield calculated for the adsorbents at variable dosage (table 4) which shows the best clearity at 1:1 dosage. the values for qe were expressed by taking the average of 6 absorbance values of 2.189, 1.404, 1.631, 0.834, 0.486 and 0.000 for 100, 80, 60, 40 20 and 0 g/cm3 as the co (initial values) in a volume (v) of 50cm3 and weight (w) of 1,2, and 3g as reported by [18]. table 3 displays the xrf results of the major oxides/ elements in the variable activated carbon fractions (1:1, 1:3 and 3:1) in terms of the percentage available oxides in each. it is clear that the oxides present in the samples are the same although, their concentrations are different. this is attributed to the variation in the molar ratios of the guinea corn and maize husks which make up the samples. similarly, the dominant oxide in each prepared carbon is sio2 with percentage composition of 83.951, 87.530 and 75.417 in 1:1, 1:3 and 3:1 respectively. accordingly, traces of oxides within the prepared ashes show similar oxide compositions as 8.2479 and 6.200 for 1:1 and 1:3 respectively except for sample c(with guinea corn husk to maize cobs ratio of 3:1) where the trace elements double the compositions of the first two (18.489). it is obvious that the amount of maize cobs overshadows that of guinea corn husk in the sample c. the results in table 1 entails that the burn ability of guinea corn husk is better than that of maize cobs, due to size difference, moisture content and texture. odewumi and coresearchers [33] reported close values for porphyritic granite, medium grained granite, granite mneiss, early gneiss and average granite rocks with a dominance of sio2. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.345 27 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 all the results show a moderate composition of al2o3 and fe2o3 as the dominant oxides in each, next to sio2. zhang and co-workers [34] reported that similar precursor materials show similar but not exact oxide values. this is verified by the oxide compositions shown in the table 1. percentage yield of adsorbents recovered in the dye waste water is presented in table 4 after filteration of the fractions from the dye waste water, the recovered weights of the adsorbents is expressed in the variable ratios. the best yield (15.98, 10.65 and 9.79%) were observed in 1:1 adsorbent dosage using 3g, 2g and 1g dosage respectively, followed by 1:3 with ( 16.77, 9.75 and 7.32%) moderate recovery while 3:1 adsorbent showed percentage recovery of 13.64, 6.67 and 5.40% for 3g, 1g and 2g adsorbent dosage respectively. this corresponds to the findings of [18], that the adsorbent dosage plays a key role along with contact time and temperature. 5. conclusion the findings in this research verify the claims of mahmoodi et al. [18] and aziz et al. [20] that adsorbents prepared from cellulose materials can effectively decolourize dye waste water. furthermore, the dosage of adsorbents has a positive effect in decolourizing wate water. further work will involve kinetic studies, full characterization and adsorption isotherms. references [1] bansode, r. r., lorso, j. n., marshal, w. e., rao, r. m. and portier, j. (2002). adsorption of metal ions by pecan shell granular activated carbon, bioresource technol.,89:p 115 – 119. [2] garg, v., amita, m., kumar r., gupta, r (2004). basic dye (methylene blue) removal from simulated waste water by adsorption using indian rosewood sawdust. dye and pigment. 63(1): p243-250. [3] malik, p.k(2004) “dye removal from wastewater using activated carbon developed from sawdust: adsorption equilibrium and kinetics,”journal of hazardous materials., volume 113, issues 1–3, 10,p 81–88 [4] jyotsnagoel, krishna kadirvelu chitrarajagopal, vinod kumar garg,( 2005)“removal of lead(ii) by adsorption using treatedgranular activated carbon: batch and column studies”,journal of hazardous materials.,volume 125, issues 1–3, 17, p211–220 [5] bansal, r. p. and goyal, m. (2005). activated carbon adsorption, crc press, taylor & francis group, 6000 broken sound parkway n.w, suite 300 boca raton, fl, usa. 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[15] lazim, zm, mzuin e, hadibarata t and yusop z (2015) journal of teknogi 74(11) 129 [16] mittal, a, jain, r, mittal j, varshey s and sikarwar s (2010) international journal of environmental pollution 43 308 [17] ngah, ws, teong lc, and hanafiah, makm (2011) carbohydrate polymers 83 1446 [18] mahmoodi nm, arami m and gharanjig k (2013) journal of environmental and chemical engineering 1 406 [19] kiakhani, ms, arami, m and gharanjig, k (2013) journal of environmental and chemical engineering 1 406 [20] aziz, h.a., aliaz, s., adian, m.n., faridah, assari, a.h. and zahari, m.s. (2007) color removal from landfill leachate by coagulation and flocculation processes. bioresource technology. 98 218-220 [21] buah. w. maccarthy, j. ndur, s.(2016). conversion of corn cobs waste into activated carbons for adsorption of heavy metals from minerals processing wastewater. international journal of environmental protection and policy. 2330-7536 [22] galvan-ruiz, m., hernandez, j., banos, l., noriega-mntes, j. and rodriguez-garcia, m.e (2019). chaarcterization of calcium carbonate, calcium oxide and calcium hydroxide as starting point to the improvement of lime for their use in construction. american society of civil engineers (asce) 1-20 available online at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/232815496 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.345 28 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 [23] kaghazchi t, madadi m, yeganeh, m. soleimani,(2006) in proc. of chisa (ed: jan novosad), czech society chemical engineers, prague, czech republic, [24] odebunmi, e., okeola, f (2001). preparation and characterization of activatd carbon from waste material. journal chemical society of nigeria 26(2): 49155. [25] itodo, u.a (2010); comparative studies on the preparation, adsorption and evaluation of activated carbon from selected animals and agricultural wastes. a ph.d thesis udus [26] omomnhenle, s., ofomaja, a., okiemen, f (2006) sorption of methylene blue by unmodified and modified citric acid saw dust. journal chemical society of nigeria. 390 (1 and 2): p161-164. [27] zahangir, a., suleyman a. and noraini, k (2008) production of activated carbon from oil palm empty fruit bunch for zn removal. bul. conference proceedings 12th int’l water tech conf. iwtc12 egypt. p373-383. [28] gimba, c., ocholi, o., nok, a (2004). preparation of activated carbon from agricultural \coastes ii. cyanide binding with activated carbon matrix from groundnut shell. nig journal of scientific research. 4 (2); p106110. [29] rahman, a., saad, b., shaidan, s. and rizal, s. (2002). adsorption characteristics of malachite green on ctivated carbon dervied from rice husks produced by chemical thermal process. bioresearches technology, 90(14): p1578-1583 [30] umar, k. j., alhassan, m. ahmad, t. i., zauro, s. a., sani, n. a., lawal, a. m. & hassan, l. g.(2012). the proximate, mineral and fatty acids profile of white grubs (scarabidae) african journal of natural sciences 2012, 15, 7 11 [31] yoshiyuki, s.,. yutaka, k. (2005) paralysis of plant, animal and human waste; physical chemical charctristics of the pyrolytic product. bioresoruce technology 90(3); p241-247 [32] alhassan, m., faruq, u.z. and galadima, a. (2019). mixed-metal oxide catalyst for liquid phase benzene alkylation. earthline journal of chemical sciencesissn (online): 2581-9003 volume 2, number 2, 2019, pages 217-234 https://doi.org/10.34198/ ejcs.2219.217234 [33] odewumi, s.c., adekeye, j.i.d. and ojo, o.j. (2012) petrogenesis and geotectonic settings of the granitic rocks of idefin-osi-eruku area, south western nigeria using trace elements and rare earth element geochemistry. african jurnal of natural sciences 15, 39-51 [34] zhang, b. , ji, y., wang, z., liu, y., sun, h., yang, w. and wu, p. (2012) liquid-phase alkylation of benzene with ethylene over postsynthesized mcm-56 analogues, applied catalysis a:general 443-444; 103-110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apcata.2012.07.028. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.345 38 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: abera gayesa tirfi, department of agriculture and animal health, university of south africa, ethiopia regional learning centre, ethiopia; email: abera.gayesa@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i3.580 received: 1 july 2022; received in revised form: 12 august 2022; accepted: 18 august 2022; published: 5 september 2022 citation: tirfi, a.g., 2022. determinants of barley output supply response in ethiopia: application of ardl bound cointegration approach. research on world agricultural economy. 3(3), 580. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i3.580 research article determinants of barley output supply response in ethiopia: application of ardl bound cointegration approach abera gayesa tirfi* department of agriculture and animal health, university of south africa, ethiopia regional learning centre, ethiopia abstract: this study investigated barley output supply response determinant factors in ethiopia. an ardl bound test approach was employed as method using secondary data from 1981-2020. the study demonstrated that barley output supply was affected positively and significantly by zero-order lagged seasonal rainfall and crop growing period temperature. the study supports the findings of researchers who reported that warming temperature followed by an increase in the amount of rainfall had a positive impact on barley output supply. the positive impact of temperature was induced because of a rise in the ocean and earth’s surface average temperature, causing more evaporation that increases overall rainfall while reaching over the highland areas. studies confirm that enso and moist winds coming from the atlantic and indian oceans influence the occurrence of rainfall in the western, southeastern, central, and northern highlands of ethiopia. the study further exhibited that csmrr and cgpmt had a positive effect on barley output both in the long-run and short-run, implying that climate parameters have minimal effect on barley production. nonclimatic variables demonstrated that both lagged and current year’s producer prices had a positively significant effect on barley output supply in both the long-run and short-run, implying that barley output supply is highly responsive to any price incentive strategies announced before re-allocation of the area towards barley cultivation. conversely, the study explored that use of fertilizer in first-order lag had negatively significant impact on barley output supply in both seasons; implying that increased use of fertilizer in lagged period may reduce barley output as a result of inappropriate fertilizers application by farmers. the results generated by this study are useful addendum to the repository of knowledge on elasticity of crop supply at an aggregate level, which can be used in designing strategies and measures for mitigation and adaptation of climate change. keywords: changing climate; supply response; barley output; ardl model 1. introduction changes in climate factors in terms of warmer temperature and variability in seasonal rainfall patterns have been reported as the main factors reducing agricultural production [1]. numerous studies concluded that climate change has posed a strong effect on agricultural output in most of sub-saharan africa, including ethiopia [2]. researchers reported that the negative effects exerted due to climate change are anticipated to be more severe in developing mailto:abera.gayesa@gmail.com http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i3.580 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6267-1366 39 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 countries where food insecurity is a major problem since rainfall is the only source of moisture for soil to meet the water requirement of crops in agricultural production practices [3]. agricultural production and its performance in ethiopia also depend on the pattern of seasonal climate parameters out of which seasonal rainfall such as short/ belg-season and long/main-season rainfalls are key factors in local food production systems, including barley crop [4]. barley (hordeum vulgare l.) has been reported as the fourth most important cereal crop in the world in terms of production [5]. in terms of volume of production, it ranks fourth in the world and fifth in ethiopia [6]. it was used by ancient civilizations as food for humans and animals, as well as to make alcoholic beverages. according to csa [7], the barley crop is considered as a major cereal crop in ethiopia accounting for 9% in terms of both the area cultivated under cereal crops (0.95 million hectares) and the volume of total annual cereal production (2.378 million tons). shreds of evidence show that ethiopia is considered a center of barley diversity [8] having diverse landraces and local varieties cultivated under a wide spectrum of land races as a result of its adaptation capability to diverse and harsh climatic conditions and soil types. such a wide diversity is assumed to be contributed a result of longterm geographic isolation since barley is considered a founder of old world agriculture and have been assumed to be cultivated in ethiopia for the last 5,000 years [9]. in ethiopia, barley is currently cultivated at altitudes ranging from 1,400 meters to 4,000 meters above sea level (m.a.s.l) which have an extremely variable climatic and edaphic environment [10]. barley is cultivated in all regions of ethiopia. the most important barley-producing regions are shewa, arsi, bale, gojam, gonder, welo, and tigray. “belg” season barley is also produced in wollo, shewa, and bale. the estimated production of barley between 1981 and 2020 was 1.08 and 2.38 million tons respectively, which showed an increase of about 220% over the years. however, barley production in ethiopia is constrained by several problems such as climate change (high interannual rainfall variability and increasing temperature), unpredictable drought stress, poor soil fertility, water logging moisture stress, low yield potential of currently grown cultivars, and infestation of diseases, insect pests and weeds [11]. among these factors, climate change significantly affects the production of the barley crops. nowadays, the incidence of climate change of the world is widely agreed upon among the scientific community. the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) assessment has confirmed that anthropogenic activities are changing the climate system of the world and regions which may remain to do so [2]. in the last century, the impacts associated with surface temperatures on the physical and biological systems were increasingly being observed. the findings inform that climate changes may lead to environmental changes, such as a rise in sea level, and alterations of climatic zones due to warmer temperatures and variation in rainfall patterns. some african countries, including ethiopia, are vulnerable to the severe impacts of changes in climate derived as a result of limitations in capacity and access to mitigation and adaptive resources. most of these countries are considered the ones most susceptible and vulnerable to climatic changes in the world [12,13]. in ethiopia, barley production is highly dependent on rainfall, since the contribution of irrigation is estimated to be less than 1% of the country’s total cultivated land area under barley. hence, the impact of these climate changes on the production and supply of barley output should be studied to provide detailed information to researchers and policy planners. there is a scarcity of such empirical studies having a national scope on the impact of climate change on barley production in ethiopia. the study aimed to investigate the determinant factors influencing barley output supply response in ethiopia. the results of the study could be used for future planning of the mitigation and adaptation responses to be taken. 2. materials and methods 2.1 description of study area located in the horn of africa, ethiopia’s latitudinal and longitudinal locations are between 3o to 15o n and 33o to 48oe, respectively. according to the world bank [14], the country is bordered with sudan, eritrea, djibouti, somalia, kenya, and south sudan. ethiopia is administratively divided into four levels: regions/city administrations, zones, woredas, and kebeles; kebele being the last grassroots administrative unit. according to the population projection of the united nations population funds [15], the ethiopian population has reached 117.90 million with an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent. barley, the theme of this study, is among the most important food crops grown in the country. shreds of evidence show that the major barley growing belts in the country include: oromia, amhara, tigray, and southern nation nationality and regional state, which supply about 99.9% of the total national barley production [16]. zone-wise, it is grown mainly in the zones of arssi, bale, shewa, wollo, gojam, and gonder [17] (see figure 1 for the map). 40 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 according to muluken and jemal [18], the wheat crop optimally grows the best at higher locations ranging from 2000 meters to 3500 meters above sea levels. barley crop is mostly grown during two consecutive seasons: the short/belg-season and main/ meher-season at the higher elevations of dega agroecologies. in ethiopia, the crop is substantially grown and supplied by smallholder subsistence farmers, who mostly grow local seed varieties with either little or no application of modern inputs like fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides. in ethiopia, barley is mainly grown during long-rainy/ meher season from june – september when the amount of crop growing period rainfall ranges between 180 mm to 400 mm depending on the altitudinal and geographic location [19]. although the crop mainly grows in the highlands, it can also be grown in a subtropical climates characterized by hot, humid summers and cool to mild winters. barley best suits a temperature of 12 °c ~ 15 °c during the crop growing period and about 30 °c at maturity time. the crop cannot tolerate frost at all stages of growth, particularly at the flowering stage. the incidence of frost at the crop flowering stage highly affects the yield of the barley crops. 2.2 data type and sources the data selected for this study included: barley output, the area allocated under barley cultivation, quantity of chemical fertilizers and improved barley seeds consumed, and producer price of the barley crop. these nationally aggregated time series secondary data were obtained and compiled from agricultural sample survey reports of the ethiopian central statistical agency (csa) for the period 1981 to 2020. furthermore, secondary data on climatic parameters (seasonal temperature and rainfall) for the observation period have been obtained from the ethiopian national meteorological agency (nma). weather stations considered representative from barley crop growing belts were selected (12 stations) and crop growing period rainfall and temperature data have been taken as recorded in the nma database. specifically, average monthly data covering the crop growing period (f-s) were taken. historical producer prices of barley crops for the observation period have also been compiled from the faostat database and csa. 2.3 empirical model selection and specification 2.3.1 variables considered for investigation in this study, the variables considered for investigation included climatic and non-climatic variables that affect output supply response of barley crop. from the climatic variables, temperature and rainfall were included in the study since it was assumed that these variables exert substantial impact on barley output supply response. furthermore, producer price, fertilizer, and land area were selected from the non-climatic variables. labor and farm machinery are variable inputs that must have been included in the study but excluded since there is no time series data that matches with the other variable inputs. the conceptual structure of this investigation is depicted in figure 2. figure 1. major barley growing belts of ethiopia 41 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 2.3.2 model review and selection to measure the impacts exerted by climatic and nonclimatic factors on crop output supply response, researchers have employed different analytical models. among the models, the general circulation models (gcms), the cobweb, ricardian, and ardl models are models widely used in empirical studies of supply responses. the gcms are the most complex climate prediction models developed to predict what would happen to climate around the world in response to a wide variety of changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [20]. however, the gcms have limitations such as poor knowledge on the ocean circulation processes, lack of knowhow on cloud formation and feedbacks, crude spatial resolution, and inability to simulate current regional climate factors accurately [21]. the cobweb model is the lag between production decisions and the realization of demand and market prices [22]. according to serena brianzoni (2018), the cobweb model is a dynamical system that describes price fluctuations as a result of the interaction between demand function, depending on current price, and supply function, depending on expected price [23]. the theory focuses on analysis of price fluctuations in market (demand side) which may lead to reduction of food grains production (supply side). however, the cobweb model has weaknesses; viz. price divergence being unrealistic and not empirically seen. as this study focuses on supply side factors, particularly temperature and rainfall as well as physical inputs like fertilizer and area under barley production, the cobweb model has not been considered for the study. the ricardian model analyzes a cross section of farms under different climatic conditions and examines the relationship between the value of land or net revenue and agro-climatic factors [21]. the model was applied by researchers in the valuation of the contributions made by the environmental factors to farm income by regressing land values on a set of environmental inputs where net revenue or price of land represent farm income. though the ricardin model measures climatic factors against value of land, it possesses weaknesses such as non inclusion of non-climatic factors and impossibility of getting perfect measures for such variables [24], non inclusion of price effects, and does not account the fertilization effect of co2 concentrations. the ardl model is an ordinary least square (ols) based model which is applicable for both non-stationary time series as well as for times series with mixed order of integration. the ardl approach developed by pesaran, et al. [25] as modified from the previous traditional cointegration technique was documented by johansen and juseline [26]. the model is considered as the best econometric method compared to others to estimate short-run and long-run impact of explanatory variables on output supply response of crops [27,28]. the ardl approach enjoys several advantages over the others such as its appropriateness for generating short-run and long-run elasticities for a small sample sizes, affords flexibility about the order of integration of the variables, and suitable for the independent variable in the model which is i(0), i(1), or mutually cointegrated [29]. in view of these, the ardl model was selected for the current study. 2.3.3 model specification this study applied an ardl bound cointegration approach proposed by pesaran, et al. [25] to examine the impact of climatic and non-climate input variables on barley output supply responses. to find the relationship between dependent and independent variables, the following general form of the ardl model was constructed: 7 baprot = ɑ0 + i=1 p β ibaprot-i + i=0 q β ixt-i + ut (1) where baprot represents barley production, baprot-i represents barley output supplied in year t-i, xt-i represents explanatory variables in year t-i, t represents the time from 1981 to 2020, and β0, βi, … are coefficients of variables included in the model, and ut is disturbance term. in this study, it was considered that the relationship between the independent and explanatory variables is expected to take the following functional form: baprot = f (baprot-1, baprit, baart, fertqt, csmrft, cgpmtt) (2) where baprot is barley output measured in million tons; baprot-1 is barley output in firstlag order, baprit is producer price of barley output in etb, baart is land area allocated under barley cultivation, fertqt is fertilizer quantity used in barley production, csmrft is crop season mean rainfall in millimeters, and cgpmtt is crop growing period mean temperatures in degrees celsius. by converting all the variables in equation (2) into natural log form, the model is expressed as below: lnbaprot= β0 + β1lnbaprot-1 + β2lnbaprit + β3lnbaart + β4lnfertqt + β5lncsmrft + β6lncgpmtt + εt (3) where lncsmrft is the log of crop season mean rainfall in mm, and lncgpmtt is the log of crop growing period mean temperature in °c. in addition, εt represents the disturbance term. to generate some long-run relationships, equation (3) is hereby modified as: lnbaprot = ɑ0 + α 1lnbaprot-i + α 2lnbaprit-i + α 3lnbaart-i + α 5lnfertt-i + α 6lncsmrfti + α 8lncgpmtt-i + εt-i (4) in case the variables are found cointegrated, the model exemplifies the existence of an error correction representation. after establishing the above long-run relationship between variables, the error correction model (ecm) can be derived from the ardl model (equation (4)) through simple linear transformation to find the short-run elasticity coefficients, which integrates short-run adjustments with long-run equilibrium. the shortrun elasticity coefficients can be estimated using the following dynamic ardl error correction model (ecm): ∆lnbaprot = β0 + β 1∆lnbaprot-i + β 2∆lnbaprit-i + β 3∆lnbart-i+ β 5∆lnfertt-i + β 6∆lncsmrft-i + β 8∆lncgpmtt-i + ψiect1-i+ ui (5) where ∆ represents the first difference while ψi is the coefficient of ecm for short-run dynamics. ecm shows the speed of adjustment in long-run equilibrium after a shock in the short-run. in this study, the investigator used the general to a specific approach to select an optimal lag length for the ardl model. before estimating the ardl bound test using the models established above, the data series on the selected variables should be tested to detect the presence of unit root and long-run cointegration. to this end, an augmented dickey-fuller (adf) and philips (1) where baprot represents barley production, baprot-i represents barley output supplied in year t-i, xt-i represents explanatory variables in year t-i, t represents the time from 1981 to 2020, and β0, βi, … are coefficients of variables included in the model, and ut is disturbance term. in this study, it was considered that the relationship between the independent and explanatory variables is expected to take 5 humid summers and cool to mild winters. barley best suits a temperature of 12°c ~ 15 °c during the crop growing period and about 30 °c at maturity time. the crop cannot tolerate frost at all stages of growth, particularly at the flowering stage. the incidence of frost at the crop flowering stage highly affects the yield of the barley crops. 2.2 data type and sources the data selected for this study included: barley output, the area allocated under barley cultivation, quantity of chemical fertilizers and improved barley seeds consumed, and producer price of the barley crop. these nationally aggregated time series secondary data were obtained and compiled from agricultural sample survey reports of the ethiopian central statistical agency (csa) for the period 1981 to 2020. furthermore, secondary data on climatic parameters (seasonal temperature and rainfall) for the observation period have been obtained from the ethiopian national meteorological agency (nma). weather stations considered representative from barley crop growing belts were selected (12 stations) and crop growing period rainfall and temperature data have been taken as recorded in the nma database. specifically, average monthly data covering the crop growing period (f-s) were taken. historical producer prices of barley crops for the observation period have also been compiled from the faostat database and csa. 2.3 empirical model selection and specification 2.3.1 variables considered for investigation in this study, the variables considered for investigation included climatic and non-climatic variables that affect output supply response of barley crop. from the climatic variables, temperature and rainfall were included in the study since it was assumed that these variables exert substantial impact on barley output supply response. furthermore, producer price, fertilizer, and land area were selected from the non-climatic variables. labor and farm machinery are variable inputs that must have been included in the study but excluded since there is no time series data that matches with the other variable inputs. the conceptual structure of this investigation is depicted in figure 2. figure 2. conceptual structure of the investigation 2.3.2 model review and selection to measure the impacts exerted by climatic and non-climatic factors on crop output supply response, researchers have employed different analytical models. among the models, the general circulation models (gcms), the cobweb, ricardian, and ardl models are models widely used in empirical studies of supply responses. the gcms are the most complex climate prediction models developed to predict what would happen to climate around the world in response to a wide variety of changes in the concentrations of c lim at ic f ac to rs barley production n on -c lim at ic f ac to rscrop season rainfall cgp temperature fertilizer use producer price area under barley production labor & machinery figure 2. conceptual structure of the investigation 42 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 the following functional form: 7 baprot = ɑ0 + i=1 p β ibaprot-i + i=0 q β ixt-i + ut (1) where baprot represents barley production, baprot-i represents barley output supplied in year t-i, xt-i represents explanatory variables in year t-i, t represents the time from 1981 to 2020, and β0, βi, … are coefficients of variables included in the model, and ut is disturbance term. in this study, it was considered that the relationship between the independent and explanatory variables is expected to take the following functional form: baprot = f (baprot-1, baprit, baart, fertqt, csmrft, cgpmtt) (2) where baprot is barley output measured in million tons; baprot-1 is barley output in firstlag order, baprit is producer price of barley output in etb, baart is land area allocated under barley cultivation, fertqt is fertilizer quantity used in barley production, csmrft is crop season mean rainfall in millimeters, and cgpmtt is crop growing period mean temperatures in degrees celsius. by converting all the variables in equation (2) into natural log form, the model is expressed as below: lnbaprot= β0 + β1lnbaprot-1 + β2lnbaprit + β3lnbaart + β4lnfertqt + β5lncsmrft + β6lncgpmtt + εt (3) where lncsmrft is the log of crop season mean rainfall in mm, and lncgpmtt is the log of crop growing period mean temperature in °c. in addition, εt represents the disturbance term. to generate some long-run relationships, equation (3) is hereby modified as: lnbaprot = ɑ0 + α 1lnbaprot-i + α 2lnbaprit-i + α 3lnbaart-i + α 5lnfertt-i + α 6lncsmrfti + α 8lncgpmtt-i + εt-i (4) in case the variables are found cointegrated, the model exemplifies the existence of an error correction representation. after establishing the above long-run relationship between variables, the error correction model (ecm) can be derived from the ardl model (equation (4)) through simple linear transformation to find the short-run elasticity coefficients, which integrates short-run adjustments with long-run equilibrium. the shortrun elasticity coefficients can be estimated using the following dynamic ardl error correction model (ecm): ∆lnbaprot = β0 + β 1∆lnbaprot-i + β 2∆lnbaprit-i + β 3∆lnbart-i+ β 5∆lnfertt-i + β 6∆lncsmrft-i + β 8∆lncgpmtt-i + ψiect1-i+ ui (5) where ∆ represents the first difference while ψi is the coefficient of ecm for short-run dynamics. ecm shows the speed of adjustment in long-run equilibrium after a shock in the short-run. in this study, the investigator used the general to a specific approach to select an optimal lag length for the ardl model. before estimating the ardl bound test using the models established above, the data series on the selected variables should be tested to detect the presence of unit root and long-run cointegration. to this end, an augmented dickey-fuller (adf) and philips (2) where baprot is barley output measured in million tons; baprot-1 is barley output in first-lag order, baprit is producer price of barley output in etb, baart is land area allocated under barley cultivation, fertqt is fertilizer quantity used in barley production, csmrft is crop season mean rainfall in millimeters, and cgpmtt is crop growing period mean temperatures in degrees celsius. by converting all the variables in equation (2) into natural log form, the model is expressed as below: lnbaprot= β0 + β1lnbaprot-1 + β2lnbaprit + β3lnbaart + β4lnfertqt + β5lncsmrft + β6lncgpmtt + εt (3) where lncsmrft is the log of crop season mean rainfall in mm, and lncgpmtt is the log of crop growing period mean temperature in °c. in addition, εt represents the disturbance term. to generate some long-run relationships, equation (3) is hereby modified as: 7 baprot = ɑ0 + i=1 p β ibaprot-i + i=0 q β ixt-i + ut (1) where baprot represents barley production, baprot-i represents barley output supplied in year t-i, xt-i represents explanatory variables in year t-i, t represents the time from 1981 to 2020, and β0, βi, … are coefficients of variables included in the model, and ut is disturbance term. in this study, it was considered that the relationship between the independent and explanatory variables is expected to take the following functional form: baprot = f (baprot-1, baprit, baart, fertqt, csmrft, cgpmtt) (2) where baprot is barley output measured in million tons; baprot-1 is barley output in firstlag order, baprit is producer price of barley output in etb, baart is land area allocated under barley cultivation, fertqt is fertilizer quantity used in barley production, csmrft is crop season mean rainfall in millimeters, and cgpmtt is crop growing period mean temperatures in degrees celsius. by converting all the variables in equation (2) into natural log form, the model is expressed as below: lnbaprot= β0 + β1lnbaprot-1 + β2lnbaprit + β3lnbaart + β4lnfertqt + β5lncsmrft + β6lncgpmtt + εt (3) where lncsmrft is the log of crop season mean rainfall in mm, and lncgpmtt is the log of crop growing period mean temperature in °c. in addition, εt represents the disturbance term. to generate some long-run relationships, equation (3) is hereby modified as: lnbaprot = ɑ0 + α 1lnbaprot-i + α 2lnbaprit-i + α 3lnbaart-i + α 5lnfertt-i + α 6lncsmrft-i + α 8lncgpmtt-i + εt-i in case the variables are found cointegrated, the model exemplifies the existence of an error correction representation. after establishing the above long-run relationship between variables, the error correction model (ecm) can be derived from the ardl model (equation (4)) through simple linear transformation to find the short-run elasticity coefficients, which integrates short-run adjustments with long-run equilibrium. the shortrun elasticity coefficients can be estimated using the following dynamic ardl error correction model (ecm): ∆lnbaprot = β0 + β 1∆lnbaprot-i + β 2∆lnbaprit-i + β 3∆lnbart-i+ β 5∆lnfertt-i + β 6∆lncsmrft-i + β 8∆lncgpmtt-i + ψiect1-i+ ui (5) where ∆ represents the first difference while ψi is the coefficient of ecm for short-run dynamics. ecm shows the speed of adjustment in long-run equilibrium after a shock in the short-run. in this study, the investigator used the general to a specific approach to select an optimal lag length for the ardl model. before estimating the ardl bound test using the models established above, the data series on the selected variables should be tested to detect the presence of unit root and 7 baprot = ɑ0 + i=1 p β ibaprot-i + i=0 q β ixt-i + ut (1) where baprot represents barley production, baprot-i represents barley output supplied in year t-i, xt-i represents explanatory variables in year t-i, t represents the time from 1981 to 2020, and β0, βi, … are coefficients of variables included in the model, and ut is disturbance term. in this study, it was considered that the relationship between the independent and explanatory variables is expected to take the following functional form: baprot = f (baprot-1, baprit, baart, fertqt, csmrft, cgpmtt) (2) where baprot is barley output measured in million tons; baprot-1 is barley output in firstlag order, baprit is producer price of barley output in etb, baart is land area allocated under barley cultivation, fertqt is fertilizer quantity used in barley production, csmrft is crop season mean rainfall in millimeters, and cgpmtt is crop growing period mean temperatures in degrees celsius. by converting all the variables in equation (2) into natural log form, the model is expressed as below: lnbaprot= β0 + β1lnbaprot-1 + β2lnbaprit + β3lnbaart + β4lnfertqt + β5lncsmrft + β6lncgpmtt + εt (3) where lncsmrft is the log of crop season mean rainfall in mm, and lncgpmtt is the log of crop growing period mean temperature in °c. in addition, εt represents the disturbance term. to generate some long-run relationships, equation (3) is hereby modified as: lnbaprot = ɑ0 + α 1lnbaprot-i + α 2lnbaprit-i + α 3lnbaart-i + α 5lnfertt-i + α 6lncsmrft-i + α 8lncgpmtt-i + εt-i in case the variables are found cointegrated, the model exemplifies the existence of an error correction representation. after establishing the above long-run relationship between variables, the error correction model (ecm) can be derived from the ardl model (equation (4)) through simple linear transformation to find the short-run elasticity coefficients, which integrates short-run adjustments with long-run equilibrium. the shortrun elasticity coefficients can be estimated using the following dynamic ardl error correction model (ecm): ∆lnbaprot = β0 + β 1∆lnbaprot-i + β 2∆lnbaprit-i + β 3∆lnbart-i+ β 5∆lnfertt-i + β 6∆lncsmrft-i + β 8∆lncgpmtt-i + ψiect1-i+ ui (5) where ∆ represents the first difference while ψi is the coefficient of ecm for short-run dynamics. ecm shows the speed of adjustment in long-run equilibrium after a shock in the short-run. in this study, the investigator used the general to a specific approach to select an optimal lag length for the ardl model. before estimating the ardl bound test using the models established above, the data series on the selected variables should be tested to detect the presence of unit root and 7 baprot = ɑ0 + i=1 p β ibaprot-i + i=0 q β ixt-i + ut (1) where baprot represents barley production, baprot-i represents barley output supplied in year t-i, xt-i represents explanatory variables in year t-i, t represents the time from 1981 to 2020, and β0, βi, … are coefficients of variables included in the model, and ut is disturbance term. in this study, it was considered that the relationship between the independent and explanatory variables is expected to take the following functional form: baprot = f (baprot-1, baprit, baart, fertqt, csmrft, cgpmtt) (2) where baprot is barley output measured in million tons; baprot-1 is barley output in firstlag order, baprit is producer price of barley output in etb, baart is land area allocated under barley cultivation, fertqt is fertilizer quantity used in barley production, csmrft is crop season mean rainfall in millimeters, and cgpmtt is crop growing period mean temperatures in degrees celsius. by converting all the variables in equation (2) into natural log form, the model is expressed as below: lnbaprot= β0 + β1lnbaprot-1 + β2lnbaprit + β3lnbaart + β4lnfertqt + β5lncsmrft + β6lncgpmtt + εt (3) where lncsmrft is the log of crop season mean rainfall in mm, and lncgpmtt is the log of crop growing period mean temperature in °c. in addition, εt represents the disturbance term. to generate some long-run relationships, equation (3) is hereby modified as: lnbaprot = ɑ0 + α 1lnbaprot-i + α 2lnbaprit-i + α 3lnbaart-i + α 5lnfertt-i + α 6lncsmrft-i + α 8lncgpmtt-i + εt-i in case the variables are found cointegrated, the model exemplifies the existence of an error correction representation. after establishing the above long-run relationship between variables, the error correction model (ecm) can be derived from the ardl model (equation (4)) through simple linear transformation to find the short-run elasticity coefficients, which integrates short-run adjustments with long-run equilibrium. the shortrun elasticity coefficients can be estimated using the following dynamic ardl error correction model (ecm): ∆lnbaprot = β0 + β 1∆lnbaprot-i + β 2∆lnbaprit-i + β 3∆lnbart-i+ β 5∆lnfertt-i + β 6∆lncsmrft-i + β 8∆lncgpmtt-i + ψiect1-i+ ui (5) where ∆ represents the first difference while ψi is the coefficient of ecm for short-run dynamics. ecm shows the speed of adjustment in long-run equilibrium after a shock in the short-run. in this study, the investigator used the general to a specific approach to select an optimal lag length for the ardl model. before estimating the ardl bound test using the models established above, the data series on the selected variables should be tested to detect the presence of unit root and 7 baprot = ɑ0 + i=1 p β ibaprot-i + i=0 q β ixt-i + ut (1) where baprot represents barley production, baprot-i represents barley output supplied in year t-i, xt-i represents explanatory variables in year t-i, t represents the time from 1981 to 2020, and β0, βi, … are coefficients of variables included in the model, and ut is disturbance term. in this study, it was considered that the relationship between the independent and explanatory variables is expected to take the following functional form: baprot = f (baprot-1, baprit, baart, fertqt, csmrft, cgpmtt) (2) where baprot is barley output measured in million tons; baprot-1 is barley output in firstlag order, baprit is producer price of barley output in etb, baart is land area allocated under barley cultivation, fertqt is fertilizer quantity used in barley production, csmrft is crop season mean rainfall in millimeters, and cgpmtt is crop growing period mean temperatures in degrees celsius. by converting all the variables in equation (2) into natural log form, the model is expressed as below: lnbaprot= β0 + β1lnbaprot-1 + β2lnbaprit + β3lnbaart + β4lnfertqt + β5lncsmrft + β6lncgpmtt + εt (3) where lncsmrft is the log of crop season mean rainfall in mm, and lncgpmtt is the log of crop growing period mean temperature in °c. in addition, εt represents the disturbance term. to generate some long-run relationships, equation (3) is hereby modified as: lnbaprot = ɑ0 + α 1lnbaprot-i + α 2lnbaprit-i + α 3lnbaart-i + α 5lnfertt-i + α 6lncsmrft-i + α 8lncgpmtt-i + εt-i in case the variables are found cointegrated, the model exemplifies the existence of an error correction representation. after establishing the above long-run relationship between variables, the error correction model (ecm) can be derived from the ardl model (equation (4)) through simple linear transformation to find the short-run elasticity coefficients, which integrates short-run adjustments with long-run equilibrium. the shortrun elasticity coefficients can be estimated using the following dynamic ardl error correction model (ecm): ∆lnbaprot = β0 + β 1∆lnbaprot-i + β 2∆lnbaprit-i + β 3∆lnbart-i+ β 5∆lnfertt-i + β 6∆lncsmrft-i + β 8∆lncgpmtt-i + ψiect1-i+ ui (5) where ∆ represents the first difference while ψi is the coefficient of ecm for short-run dynamics. ecm shows the speed of adjustment in long-run equilibrium after a shock in the short-run. in this study, the investigator used the general to a specific approach to select an optimal lag length for the ardl model. before estimating the ardl bound test using the models established above, the data series on the selected variables should be tested to detect the presence of unit root and (4) in case the variables are found cointegrated, the model exemplifies the existence of an error correction representation. after establishing the above long-run relationship between variables, the error correction model (ecm) can be derived from the ardl model (equation (4)) through simple linear transformation to find the short-run elasticity coefficients, which integrates short-run adjustments with long-run equilibrium. the short-run elasticity coefficients can be estimated using the following dynamic ardl error correction model (ecm): 7 baprot = ɑ0 + i=1 p β ibaprot-i + i=0 q β ixt-i + ut (1) where baprot represents barley production, baprot-i represents barley output supplied in year t-i, xt-i represents explanatory variables in year t-i, t represents the time from 1981 to 2020, and β0, βi, … are coefficients of variables included in the model, and ut is disturbance term. in this study, it was considered that the relationship between the independent and explanatory variables is expected to take the following functional form: baprot = f (baprot-1, baprit, baart, fertqt, csmrft, cgpmtt) (2) where baprot is barley output measured in million tons; baprot-1 is barley output in firstlag order, baprit is producer price of barley output in etb, baart is land area allocated under barley cultivation, fertqt is fertilizer quantity used in barley production, csmrft is crop season mean rainfall in millimeters, and cgpmtt is crop growing period mean temperatures in degrees celsius. by converting all the variables in equation (2) into natural log form, the model is expressed as below: lnbaprot= β0 + β1lnbaprot-1 + β2lnbaprit + β3lnbaart + β4lnfertqt + β5lncsmrft + β6lncgpmtt + εt (3) where lncsmrft is the log of crop season mean rainfall in mm, and lncgpmtt is the log of crop growing period mean temperature in °c. in addition, εt represents the disturbance term. to generate some long-run relationships, equation (3) is hereby modified as: lnbaprot = ɑ0 + α 1lnbaprot-i + α 2lnbaprit-i + α 3lnbaart-i + α 5lnfertt-i + α 6lncsmrft-i + α 8lncgpmtt-i + εt-i in case the variables are found cointegrated, the model exemplifies the existence of an error correction representation. after establishing the above long-run relationship between variables, the error correction model (ecm) can be derived from the ardl model (equation (4)) through simple linear transformation to find the short-run elasticity coefficients, which integrates short-run adjustments with long-run equilibrium. the shortrun elasticity coefficients can be estimated using the following dynamic ardl error correction model (ecm): ∆lnbaprot = β0 + β 1∆lnbaprot-i + β 2∆lnbaprit-i + β 3∆lnbart-i+ β 5∆lnfertt-i + β 6∆lncsmrft-i + β 8∆lncgpmtt-i + ψiect1-i+ ui where ∆ represents the first difference while ψi is the coefficient of ecm for short-run dynamics. ecm shows the speed of adjustment in long-run equilibrium after a shock in the short-run. in this study, the investigator used the general to a specific approach to select an optimal lag length for the ardl model. 7 baprot = ɑ0 + i=1 p β ibaprot-i + i=0 q β ixt-i + ut (1) where baprot represents barley production, baprot-i represents barley output supplied in year t-i, xt-i represents explanatory variables in year t-i, t represents the time from 1981 to 2020, and β0, βi, … are coefficients of variables included in the model, and ut is disturbance term. in this study, it was considered that the relationship between the independent and explanatory variables is expected to take the following functional form: baprot = f (baprot-1, baprit, baart, fertqt, csmrft, cgpmtt) (2) where baprot is barley output measured in million tons; baprot-1 is barley output in firstlag order, baprit is producer price of barley output in etb, baart is land area allocated under barley cultivation, fertqt is fertilizer quantity used in barley production, csmrft is crop season mean rainfall in millimeters, and cgpmtt is crop growing period mean temperatures in degrees celsius. by converting all the variables in equation (2) into natural log form, the model is expressed as below: lnbaprot= β0 + β1lnbaprot-1 + β2lnbaprit + β3lnbaart + β4lnfertqt + β5lncsmrft + β6lncgpmtt + εt (3) where lncsmrft is the log of crop season mean rainfall in mm, and lncgpmtt is the log of crop growing period mean temperature in °c. in addition, εt represents the disturbance term. to generate some long-run relationships, equation (3) is hereby modified as: lnbaprot = ɑ0 + α 1lnbaprot-i + α 2lnbaprit-i + α 3lnbaart-i + α 5lnfertt-i + α 6lncsmrft-i + α 8lncgpmtt-i + εt-i in case the variables are found cointegrated, the model exemplifies the existence of an error correction representation. after establishing the above long-run relationship between variables, the error correction model (ecm) can be derived from the ardl model (equation (4)) through simple linear transformation to find the short-run elasticity coefficients, which integrates short-run adjustments with long-run equilibrium. the shortrun elasticity coefficients can be estimated using the following dynamic ardl error correction model (ecm): ∆lnbaprot = β0 + β 1∆lnbaprot-i + β 2∆lnbaprit-i + β 3∆lnbart-i+ β 5∆lnfertt-i + β 6∆lncsmrft-i + β 8∆lncgpmtt-i + ψiect1-i+ ui where ∆ represents the first difference while ψi is the coefficient of ecm for short-run dynamics. ecm shows the speed of adjustment in long-run equilibrium after a shock in the short-run. in this study, the investigator used the general to a specific approach to select an optimal lag length for the ardl model. 7 baprot = ɑ0 + i=1 p β ibaprot-i + i=0 q β ixt-i + ut (1) where baprot represents barley production, baprot-i represents barley output supplied in year t-i, xt-i represents explanatory variables in year t-i, t represents the time from 1981 to 2020, and β0, βi, … are coefficients of variables included in the model, and ut is disturbance term. in this study, it was considered that the relationship between the independent and explanatory variables is expected to take the following functional form: baprot = f (baprot-1, baprit, baart, fertqt, csmrft, cgpmtt) (2) where baprot is barley output measured in million tons; baprot-1 is barley output in firstlag order, baprit is producer price of barley output in etb, baart is land area allocated under barley cultivation, fertqt is fertilizer quantity used in barley production, csmrft is crop season mean rainfall in millimeters, and cgpmtt is crop growing period mean temperatures in degrees celsius. by converting all the variables in equation (2) into natural log form, the model is expressed as below: lnbaprot= β0 + β1lnbaprot-1 + β2lnbaprit + β3lnbaart + β4lnfertqt + β5lncsmrft + β6lncgpmtt + εt (3) where lncsmrft is the log of crop season mean rainfall in mm, and lncgpmtt is the log of crop growing period mean temperature in °c. in addition, εt represents the disturbance term. to generate some long-run relationships, equation (3) is hereby modified as: lnbaprot = ɑ0 + α 1lnbaprot-i + α 2lnbaprit-i + α 3lnbaart-i + α 5lnfertt-i + α 6lncsmrft-i + α 8lncgpmtt-i + εt-i in case the variables are found cointegrated, the model exemplifies the existence of an error correction representation. after establishing the above long-run relationship between variables, the error correction model (ecm) can be derived from the ardl model (equation (4)) through simple linear transformation to find the short-run elasticity coefficients, which integrates short-run adjustments with long-run equilibrium. the shortrun elasticity coefficients can be estimated using the following dynamic ardl error correction model (ecm): ∆lnbaprot = β0 + β 1∆lnbaprot-i + β 2∆lnbaprit-i + β 3∆lnbart-i+ β 5∆lnfertt-i + β 6∆lncsmrft-i + β 8∆lncgpmtt-i + ψiect1-i+ ui (5) where ∆ represents the first difference while ψi is the coefficient of ecm for short-run dynamics. ecm shows the speed of adjustment in long-run equilibrium after a shock in the short-run. in this study, the investigator used the general to a specific approach to select an optimal lag length for the ardl model. before estimating the ardl bound test using the models established above, the data series on the selected variables should be tested to detect the presence of unit root and 7 baprot = ɑ0 + i=1 p β ibaprot-i + i=0 q β ixt-i + ut (1) where baprot represents barley production, baprot-i represents barley output supplied in year t-i, xt-i represents explanatory variables in year t-i, t represents the time from 1981 to 2020, and β0, βi, … are coefficients of variables included in the model, and ut is disturbance term. in this study, it was considered that the relationship between the independent and explanatory variables is expected to take the following functional form: baprot = f (baprot-1, baprit, baart, fertqt, csmrft, cgpmtt) (2) where baprot is barley output measured in million tons; baprot-1 is barley output in firstlag order, baprit is producer price of barley output in etb, baart is land area allocated under barley cultivation, fertqt is fertilizer quantity used in barley production, csmrft is crop season mean rainfall in millimeters, and cgpmtt is crop growing period mean temperatures in degrees celsius. by converting all the variables in equation (2) into natural log form, the model is expressed as below: lnbaprot= β0 + β1lnbaprot-1 + β2lnbaprit + β3lnbaart + β4lnfertqt + β5lncsmrft + β6lncgpmtt + εt (3) where lncsmrft is the log of crop season mean rainfall in mm, and lncgpmtt is the log of crop growing period mean temperature in °c. in addition, εt represents the disturbance term. to generate some long-run relationships, equation (3) is hereby modified as: lnbaprot = ɑ0 + α 1lnbaprot-i + α 2lnbaprit-i + α 3lnbaart-i + α 5lnfertt-i + α 6lncsmrft-i + α 8lncgpmtt-i + εt-i in case the variables are found cointegrated, the model exemplifies the existence of an error correction representation. after establishing the above long-run relationship between variables, the error correction model (ecm) can be derived from the ardl model (equation (4)) through simple linear transformation to find the short-run elasticity coefficients, which integrates short-run adjustments with long-run equilibrium. the shortrun elasticity coefficients can be estimated using the following dynamic ardl error correction model (ecm): ∆lnbaprot = β0 + β 1∆lnbaprot-i + β 2∆lnbaprit-i + β 3∆lnbart-i+ β 5∆lnfertt-i + β 6∆lncsmrft-i + β 8∆lncgpmtt-i + ψiect1-i+ ui (5) where ∆ represents the first difference while ψi is the coefficient of ecm for short-run dynamics. ecm shows the speed of adjustment in long-run equilibrium after a shock in the short-run. in this study, the investigator used the general to a specific approach to select an optimal lag length for the ardl model. before estimating the ardl bound test using the models established above, the data series on the selected variables should be tested to detect the presence of unit root and (5) where ∆ represents the first difference while ψi is the coefficient of ecm for short-run dynamics. ecm shows the speed of adjustment in long-run equilibrium after a shock in the short-run. in this study, the investigator used the general to a specific approach to select an optimal lag length for the ardl model. before estimating the ardl bound test using the models established above, the data series on the selected variables should be tested to detect the presence of unit root and long-run cointegration. to this end, an augmented dickey-fuller (adf) and philips-perron (pp) tests have been considered the best approach [30,31] and used the models to test the presence of unit root in the data series. to estimate the bound tests, all the variables included in the model must be stationary at i(0), i(1), or both. nevertheless, researchers noted that the presence of unit root in data series implies that the analyst may obtain spurious results from analyzing them at their original level [32,33]. next to the stationarity test, a cointegration test has been conducted to detect the presence of a stable equilibrium relationship between the variables included in the model as proposed in enders [34]. if the presence of cointegration is confirmed with the model for at least two i(1) series and some i(0), the variables can be added to the ardl model for the estimation which may not alter the i(0) characteristics of the error term. in this study, cointegration analysis was carried out using the johansen procedure as recommended by akter and hong [35], which first defines an unrestricted vector autoregression (var). all of the analyses have been conducted using eviews 9 econometric software. 3. results and discussion 3.1 results of preliminary time series, specification, and robustness tests before the estimation of the ardl model, appropriate tests have been carried out to detect the existence of unit root and long-run co-integration in the data series. table 1 presents the results of unit root tests conducted on the time series data using adf and pp approaches. the results imply that log barley output and log fertilizer quantity used in barley production exhibited stationarity at the first-order difference (i(1)). conversely, log producer barley price, log area under barley crop, log csmrf, and log cgpmt were stationary at level (i(0)). the result, therefore, demonstrated a mixture of level-order (i(0)) and first-order (i(1)) integration of variables [36]. whenever the time series data exhibit a mixture of i(0) and i(1), most investigators propose to apply ardl modeling as the best approach to estimate the coefficients of the parameter included in the models [37]. to apply the ardl approach, cointegration bounds test, model stability test, and variance error correction model (vecm) has to be conducted to test the presence of long-term cointegration, models’ goodness of fit, presence of serial correlation, and model misspecification [37]. table 2 presents the outcomes of the cointegration bound test. it can be seen from the table that a linear combination of the variables in the regression model was stationary since the f-statistics exceeds the upper bound at the 5% critical value. this implies that barley output and its determinants are cointegrated, exemplifying the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables in the model. 43 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 to test the robustness of the ardl model, diagnostic tests such as non-normality, serial correlation, and heteroscedasticity were conducted. the results of the diagnostic tests for the barley output response equation are presented in table 3. it can be seen from the table that the p-values for normality (jarque-bera), serial correlation (breush– godfrey lagrange multiplier (lm)), and heteroscedasticity are greater than a 5% level of significance. the results imply that the residuals are normally distributed; there is no evidence of serial correlation; no autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (arch). table 3. residual properties of barley output response equation type of test test statistic test statistic value probability normality test histogram jarquebera 3.43526 0.17794 serial correlation (lm ) obs*rsquared 13.4639 0.05720 heteroscedasticity (arch ) obs*rsquared 11.3876 0.5784 in addition to the above diagnostic tests, the stability of long-run estimates has been tested using the cumulative sum of recursive residuals (cusum) and cumulative squares of recursive residuals (cusumqs) test. table 4 shows cusum stability test results. as can be seen from the table, the model does not suffer from any form of misspecification. equally, the plot of cusum test shown in figure 2 reveals that the estimated parameters are stable over the observation period at a 5% level of significance. table 4. cusum stability test results dependent variable f – statistic probability conclusion log barley output 0.46382 0.6349 no indication of misspecification -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 cusum of squares 5% significance figure 3. plot of cumulative sum of squares of recursive residuals. 3.2 impact of climate and non-climate parameters on barley output supply response this study was organized to examine the long-run and short-run impacts that climatic and non-climatic factors exert on barley output supply response. an ardl model selected for the study has been estimated for both climatic (csmrf and cgpmt) and non-climatic parameters (lagged barley output, barley producer price, land area allocated for barley cultivation, and quantity of fertilizer table 1. time series unit root test results for barley output and related independent variables variable adf pp resultlevel first difference level first difference t-stat p-value c. value t-stat p-value c. value t-stat p-value c. value t-stat p-value c. value lnbapro –2.2735 0.4378 –4.2187 –8.6119*** 0.0001 –4.2119 –2.0962 0.5317 –4.2119 –9.3237*** 0.0000 –4.2191 i(1) lnbapri –2.2660*** 0.4416 –4.2119 –5.7388*** 0.0002 –4.2191 –2.2649*** 0.4422 –4.2119 –6.2363*** 0.0000 –4.2119 i(0) lnbaar –3.6455** 0.0387 –3.5297 –8.5007 0.0000 –4.2191 –3.6395** 0.0392 –3.5298 –19.265*** 0.0000 –4.2191 i(0) lnfert –2.9416 0.1613 –3.1964 7.2393*** 0.0000 –4.2191 –2.9228* 0.1668 –3.1964 –13.1899*** 0.0000 –4.2191 i(1) lncsmrf –4.9210** 0.0015 –4.2119 –6.5636*** 0.0000 –4.2436 –4.8858*** 0.0017 –4.2119 –20.979*** 0.0000 –4.2191 i(0) lncgpmt –18.986*** 0.0000 –4.2119 –20.0798 0.0000 –4.2191 –16.239 0.0000 –4.2119 –54.222*** 0.0000 –4.2191 i(0) note: ***, ** and * indicates 1%, 5% and 10% level of significance. table 2. estimated cointegration equations for barley output response dependent variable type of test test statistics critical values conclusion barley output response wald test 4.2844** 4.130 long-run cointegration exists note: ** statistically significant at 5% level 44 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 consumed on barley production). main-season/meher rainfall and improved barley seed have been initially incorporated into the model but dropped since both have high serial autocorrelation and multicollinearity with other variables. equally, the irrigated area under barley cultivation was dropped because the total land area allocated under barley cultivation encompassed an irrigated area as well. the effect of the irrigated area under barley cultivation should be treated separately from the total land area allocated under barley crop to avoid double counting and to know their impact contribution individually. the ardl model with lag length (1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0) was selected as optimum to estimate the regression coefficients for the variables included in the model. it was found that the ardl regression model demonstrated good fitness to the barley output supply time series data, with high values of adjusted r2 (0.779). based on the value of adjusted r2, the explanatory variables explained 77.9% of the variation in barley output supply. furthermore, the durban-watson showed no evidence of serial autocorrelation. the f-test does not show the presence of any heteroscedasticity of the residual. the tests, therefore, exemplify that the model becomes viable and fits at lag length 1 and first-order differences. table 5 presents the estimated regression coefficients of the ardl model for barley output supply against the determinant variables. the result shows that climatic factors had a positive impact on the current barley output supply both during previous and current years. in this respect, the current year’s barley output supply was affected positively and significantly by the amount of zero-order difference crop season mean rainfall (csmrf) and crop growing period mean temperature (cgpmt). the result implies that a 1% increase in csmrf and cgpmt individually boosts barley output supply by 0.47% and 2.27% respectively. this shows that crop season rainfall is among the main determinants of barley output supply in ethiopia. this result is inversely related to research results recorded globally by other investigators, the majority of which demonstrated increasing temperature associated with decreasing rainfall [38]. the current study finding supports the findings of researchers who reported that a warming temperature followed by an increase in the amount of rainfall had a positive impact on barley output supply. as can be seen from figure 3, crop growing period mean temperature in this study exhibited a significant (at 1% level) rising trend in barley growing areas followed by increasing crop season mean rainfall in the same areas. the positive impact of temperature can be explained that as the average surface temperature rise, more evaporation arises, which increases the overall rainfall while reaching the highland and mid-highland areas of ethiopia. some study reports confirm that the so-called “el nino-southern oscillation (enso)” and the moist wind coming from the atlantic and indian oceans influence the western, southeastern, central, and northern highlands of ethiopia; which bring moisture from the oceans [39]. this finding is also in conformity with fischer and velthuizen [40] who in their examination of the impact of climate change on kenya reported that higher temperatures exert a positive impact in the highland areas. among the non-climatic inputs, regression coefficients were estimated for lagged barley output (previous year’s output), current year’s barley price, land area under barley cultivation, and fertilizer used in barley production. the estimates demonstrated that the current year’s barley price, land area under barley cultivation, and fertilizer used had a positive impact on the current year’s barley crop output supply. however, only the producer price of barley had a significant impact on the current year’s barley production. the result implies that a 1% increase in the current year’s producer price of barley will increase barley output supply by 0.7%. equally, the previous year’s (zero-order difference) producer price demonstrated a highly significant positive impact on the current year’s barley output supply in which a 1% increase in producer price of barley last year will increase the current year’s barley output by 0.82%. conversely, the use of fertilizer in its first-order lag (previous year) had demonstrated a negative and highly significant (at 5% level) impact on barley output supply, in which a 1% change (increase or decrease) in fertilizer quantity used leads to a decrease of barley output by 0.0.17%. furthermore, lagged barley output (first-order lag) exerted a positive and significant (at 1% level) impact on the current year’s barley output supply. the result shows that a 1% change in the quantity of previous years’ barley output would decrease the volume of the current year’s barley output by 0.38%. from the results of non-climatic factors, it can be concluded that the current barley output supply is positively and significantly responsive to both the current and previous year’s producer prices. barley producer price change or price incentives announced before land area allocation to specific crops had a significant and positive contributions in boosting the current year’s barley output supply. 45 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 figure 4. trend of cgp mean temperature and csm rainfall in barley growing areas table 5. estimates of regression coefficients for ardl model of barley output supply response variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. cons –3.24905 3.56716 –0.91083 0.3714 lnbapro(-1) –0.2928*** 0.09994 –2.93004 0.0073 lnbapri(-1) 0.6955*** 0.16548 4.20280 0.0003 lnbaar(-1) 0.0252 0.03266 0.77163 0.4479 lnfert(-1) 0.1054 0.07360 1.43225 0.1650 lncsmrf(-1) 0.2319 0.21385 1.08438 0.2890 lncgpmt(-1) 0.4676 1.05533 0.44306 0.6617 d(lnbapro(-1)) –0.3787*** 0.11631 –3.25630 0.0034 d(lnbapri) 0.8220*** 0.10730 7.66077 0.0000 d(lnbaar) -0.0278 0.06776 –0.40977 0.6856 d(lnfert) 0.0193 0.06897 0.27907 0.7826 d(lnfert(-1)) –0.174** 0.07787 –2.23457 0.0350 d(lncsmrf) 0.4715*** 0.14154 3.33140 0.0028 d(lncgpmt) 2.26702** 0.85321 2.65706 0.0138 r-squared 0.8565 mean dependent var 0.02455 adjusted r-squared 0.7787 s.d. dependent var 0.13759 s.e. of regression 0.0647 akaike info criterion –2.36011 sum squared resid 0.1006 schwarz criterion –1.75679 f-statistic 11.0159 hannan-quinn criter. –2.14545 prob(f-statistic) 0.0000 durbin-watson stat 2.28889 note: *, ** & *** indicate significance at 10%, 5% and 1% level. 46 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 since the cointegration test confirmed the presence of long-run cointegration among the variables included in the model, long-run elasticity coefficients have been estimated for the barley output determinant variables. table 6 presents estimated long-run elasticity coefficients of the climate and non-climate variables included in the barley output ardl model with a lag length of (1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0). the estimated elasticity coefficients of all climatic and non-climatic variables, except the log of lagged barley output, demonstrated a positive relationship with the dependent variable in the long-run. nevertheless, only barley producer price had demonstrated a positively significant impact on the supply of barley output in the long-run. this implies that a 1% rise in producer price of barley output will boost barley output supply by 0.54%. conversely, log barley output included as lagged (first-order lag) explanatory variable exerted a negative and significant (1% level) impact on the current year’s barley output supply in the long-run. this implied that a 1% change (decrease or increase) in first-order lagged output will decrease barley output by 0.23%. the study result exhibited that average crop season rainfall and crop growing period mean temperature exhibited a positive influence on the supply of barley output, although it is statistically non-significant. this implies that climate parameters have minimal impact on the supply of barley output in the long-run. the reason for this result is that barley is grown during the main rainy season when rainfall is relatively plentiful and the temperature is relatively cool. furthermore, barley is grown in the highlands and mid-highlands where the temperature is naturally cool and has a moderate to a high amount of rainfall. the error correction model which engages short-term fluctuations in the long-run has been estimated employing the ardl bounds test approach. the outcomes of the elasticity coefficients for the variables with lag length (1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0) model are presented in table 7. the results show that csmrf and cgpmt had a positive and significant influence on the current barley output supply in the short-run. this indicates that a 1% increase in csmrf and cgpmt would boost barley output supply by 0.34% and 0.32% respectively. furthermore, non-climatic factors included in the model showed mixed results in the short-run. accordingly, the log producer price of barley (at zero-order difference) showed a positively significant effect on barley output supply in the short-run. this indicates that a 1% increase in log producer price at zero-order difference would lead to an increase in barley output by 0.66%. this specifically implies that barley output supply is highly responsive to any strategy of price incentive announced before reallocation of the land area towards barley cultivation in the short-run. conversely, the elasticity coefficients of log area and log fertilizer used at zero-order differences demonstrated a negative effect on barley output supply in the short-run. nevertheless, only fertilizer quantity used in barley production had a significant effect on barley output supply. the result indicates that a 1% increase or decrease in fertilizer quantity used would decrease the quantity of barley output supply by 0.13% in the short-run. the result implies that increased use of fertilizer in lagged period (last year) will reduce the current year’s supply of barley output. this was achieved since farmers in ethiopia do not use fertilizer as per recommendations of the extension service. equally, any incentivized barley price in zero-order difference will affect barley output supply positively, i.e. price incentive announced during the previous year will encourage producers to allocate more land and boost barley output supply. on the other hand, the lagged error correction term which captures the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium exemplified the correct sign and magnitude. the speed of adjustment was found to be -0.948 which is highly significant (1% level) and indicates the speed of adjustment to be back to the long-run equilibrium after a short-run shock on barley crop output and climate variables. it is crucial to note that the coefficient of –0.948 precisely means that it takes 1.05 years (1/0.948) for the barley crop output to return to its equilibrium position following a shock. the estimated coefficient (ectt-1) also portrays that 94.8% of the disequilibrium created will be corrected within 1 year. 3.3 comparison of the study with others studies the results of this study are analogous to the study results of various researchers based in the country as well as in other countries. among these researchers, dumrul and kilicarslan [41] in their study on the economic impacts of changes in climate on agriculture in turkey reported that log average temperature had a positive and significant impact on agricultural gdp. in contrast to theory, positive effects of warmer temperatures on selected crops have also been demonstrated by lobell, et al. [42] and schlenker and roberts [43], although only below the threshold of temperature. equally, chandio, et al. [44] in their study on the relationship between climatic and wheat production in turkey reported that rainfall has exerted a positive influence on wheat production in the long-run, although insignificant. the result implies that a 1% increase in precipitation level would lead to an increase in wheat production by 0.06% in the long-run. however, their findings are contrary to 47 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 the result of this study since average temperature had negatively and significantly impacted wheat production in turkey. this implies that a 1% rise in the average level of temperature will lead to a decline in wheat production by 0.29% in the long-run. this implies that a rising level of mean temperature in turkey had adversely affected the production of wheat. it is evident that a decrease in wheat production leads to reduced growth in the agricultural sector and creates a challenge to food security in the country. on the other hand, ketema [45] in his study on determinants of agricultural output in ethiopia reported that rainfall had a positive and significant impact on agricultural output, which is similar to the current study finding. the result implied that a 1% increase in the amount of rainfall boosts agricultural output by 0.56%. the study findings of taye, et al. [46] are also congruent with the result of the current study; studying the impacts that a changing climate and fertilizer exert on barley production in ethiopia reported that rainfall had a positive and significant impact on barley production at zero-order difference both in the short and long-run. these indicate that a 1% increase in the amount of rainfall during the shortand long-run boosts barley production by 0.03% and 0.41% respectively. the current study result is further consistent with that table 6. long-run estimated elasticities of parameters in barley output supply model variable coefficient std. error t-statistic p-value constant –2.51316 2.73879 –0.91762 0.3679 lnbapro(-1) –0.22649*** 0.059793 –3.788003 0.0009 lnbapri 0.53797*** 0.102486 5.249228 0.0000 lnbaar 0.01949 0.024653 0.790720 0.4369 lnfert 0.08154 0.05632 1.44784 0.1606 lncsmrf 0.17938 0.168013 1.067625 0.2963 lncgpmt 0.36167 0.810883 0.446021 0.6596 r-squared 0.85646 mean dependent var 0.02455 adjusted r-squared 0.77872 s.d. dependent var 0.13759 s.e. of regression 0.06472 akaike info criterion –2.36011 sum squared resid 0.10054 schwarz criterion –1.75679 f-statistic 11.01587 hannan-quinn criter. –2.14545 prob(f-statistic) 0.000000 durbin-watson stat 2.28889 note: ** indicates significance at 5% level table 7. short-run elasticities of variables in barley output dynamic ecm model variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. cons 0.16093 0.15513 1.03739 0.3073 ect(-1) –0.948*** 0.06303 –15.0414 0.0000 d(lnbapri) 0.6646*** 0.10845 6.12856 0.0000 d(lnbaar) –0.12303 0.07689 –1.59999 0.1194 d(lnfert) –0.13170* 0.07390 –1.78212 0.0842 d(lncsmrf) 0.33554** 0.12665 2.64937 0.0124 d(lncgpmt) 0.32123* 0.16913 1.89927 0.0666 r-squared 0.65255 mean dependent var 0.02035 adjusted r-squared 0.58741 s.d. dependent var 0.13827 r-squared 0.65255 mean dependent var 0.02035 adjusted r-squared 0.58741 s.d. dependent var 0.13827 s.e. of regression 0.08882 akaike info criterion –1.84334 sum squared resid 0.25243 schwarz criterion –1.54475 f-statistic 10.0168 hannan-quinn criter. –1.73621 prob(f-statistic) 0.000003 durbin-watson stat 2.27756 note: *, ** and *** indicates significance at 10%, 5% and 1% level, respectively 48 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 of chandio, et al. [47], who, in their study on shortand long-run impacts exerted by changing climate on the production of agricultural outputs in china have reported that log temperature and log rainfall had a positive influence on agricultural production in the short-run, although statistically insignificant. equally, taye, et al. [46] who studied the impact of change in climate and fertilizer use on the production of barley output in ethiopia reported that precipitation and rainfall have a positive and significant influence on the supply of barley output. the results indicated that a 1% rise in current precipitation increases barley output supply by 2.8% in the long-run. furthermore, the finding related to the producer price of barley is similar to that of elbeydi, et al. [48], who in their study on the response of barley in libya, reported that the coefficient of producer price of barley is positive (0.543) and significant in the long-run. conversely, taye, et al. [46] reported that fertilizers (dap and urea) demonstrated a negatively significant influence on the production of barley output in the long run. this indicates that a 1% increase in the use of dap and urea fertilizers decreases the supply of barley output by 28.8% and 3.4% respectively in the longrun. similarly, taye, et al. [46] in their study on the impacts exerted by changing climate and fertilizer use on the production of barley output in ethiopia exemplified that current year barley output is negatively and significantly affected by the use of current year dap fertilizer in the short-run. this implies that a 1% increase in the use of current dap fertilizer would decrease barley output by 4.44% in the short-run. conversely, they reported that barley production is affected positively by the current and previous year’s (first-order lag) quantity of urea fertilizers consumed in the short-run. in this respect, every 1% rise in the use of current and previous year’s urea fertilizer boosts barley output supply by 6.87% and 6.57% respectively. 3.4 implication and explanation of findings the study results demonstrated that climatic factors had a positive impact on the current barley output supply both during previous and current years. in this context, the current year’s barley output supply was affected positively and significantly by the amount of zero-order difference average crop season rainfall (csmrf) and crop growing period mean temperature (cgpmt). this result is inversely related to the research results recorded globally by other investigators, the majority of which reported that increasing temperature is associated with decreasing rainfall [38]. the current study result supports the findings of researchers who reported that a warming temperature followed by an increase in the amount of rainfall had a positive impact on barley output supply. the positive impact of temperature on barley output supply can be explained by the fact that as the average temperature on the earth’s surface rise, more evaporation occurs, which in turn, increases overall rainfall mostly while reaching the highland and mid-highland areas of ethiopia. study reports confirm that el nino-southern oscillation (enso) and the atlantic and indian oceans influence the occurrence of rainfall in the western, southeastern, central, and northern highlands of ethiopia; which bring moisture from the oceans [39]. however, the study result exhibited that csmrf and cgpmt had a positive impact on the supply of barley output, which implies that climate parameters have minimal impact on the supply of barley output in the long-run. this was realized since barley is mainly grown during the main rainy season when rainfall is relatively plentiful and the temperature is cool. furthermore, barley is grown in the highlands and mid-highlands where the temperature is naturally cool and has a moderate to a high amount of rainfall. in the short-run, csmrf and cgpmt revealed a positively significant influence on the current barley output supply indicating that a 1% increase in csmrf and cgpmt will boost barley output supply by 0.34% and 0.32% respectively. similar investigations demonstrated that previous and current year’s barley producer prices had a positively significant influence on the current year’s barley production. from this result, it can be concluded that barley output supply is positively and significantly responsive to both current and previous year’s (first-order lag) own producer prices. change (increase) in barley producer price or price incentives announced before land area allocation to specific crops had a significant and positive contribution to boost the current year’s barley output supply. conversely, the study result explored that use of fertilizer in its first-order lag (previous year) had exerted a negatively significant (at a 5% level) influence on barley output supply. on the other hand, the producer price of barley demonstrated a positively significant influence on the supply of barley output in both the longand short-term. this specifically exemplifies that barley output supply is highly responsive to any strategy of price incentive announced before re-allocation of the land area towards barley cultivation. conversely, the study result exemplified that fertilizer used at zero-order difference had a negatively significant influence on barley output supply in the shortrun, implying that increased use of fertilizer in lagged period (last year) will reduce the current year’s barley output supply. this may be due to the inappropriate use of 49 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 fertilizers among farmers in ethiopia. 4. conclusions this study aimed to investigate the determinant factors influencing barley output supply response in ethiopia. the study applied an ardl model proposed by pesaran, et al. [25] to examine the impact of climatic and non-climate input variables on barley output supply responses. the study used secondary time series data covering the period from 1981-2020. the study results demonstrated that climatic factors had a positive impact on the current barley output supply both during zero-order lag (previous) and current years. in this context, the current year’s barley output supply was affected positively and significantly by the amount of zero-order lag csmrf and cgpmt. the result is inversely related to research results recorded globally by other investigators, the majority of which reported that rising temperature is associated with decreasing rainfall [38]. the current study result supports the findings of researchers who reported that a warming temperature followed by an increase in the amount of rainfall had a positive impact on barley output supply. the positive impact of temperature on barley output supply can be explained by the fact that as average surface temperature rise, more evaporation would be created which increases overall rainfall while reaching the highland and mid-highland areas of ethiopia. studies by conway [39] confirm that el nino-southern oscillation (enso) and moist winds from the atlantic and indian oceans influences the occurrence of rainfall in the western, southeastern, central, and northern highlands of ethiopia; which bring moisture from the oceans. furthermore, the study result exhibited that csmrf and cgpmt had a positive impact on the supply of barley output in the long-run, although non-significant, which implies that climate parameters have got a minimal impact on the supply of barley output. this result has been realized because barley crop is mainly grown during the main rainy season when rainfall is relatively plentiful and the temperature is cool. furthermore, barley is grown in the highlands and mid-highlands where the temperature is naturally cool and has a moderate to a high amount of rainfall. conversely, csmrf and cgpmt revealed a positively significant influence on current barley production in the short-run, indicating that a 1% increase in csmrf and cgpmt will boost barley output supply by 0.34% and 0.32% respectively. similar investigations on non-climatic variables demonstrated that the previous year (first-order lag) and the current year’s barley producer price have had a positively significant influence on the current year’s barley production. from this result, it can be concluded that barley output supply is positively and significantly responsive to both current and previous year’s (first-order lag) producer prices. an increase in barley producer price or price incentives announced before land area allocation to specific crops had a significant and positive contribution to boost the current year’s barley output supply. conversely, the study result explored that use of fertilizers in its first-order lag (previous year) induced a negatively significant (at 5% level) influence on barley production. on the other hand, the producer price of barley demonstrated a positively significant effect on the supply of barley output both in the longand short-run, specifically indicating that barley output supply is greatly responsive to any strategy of price incentive announced ahead of reallocation of the land area towards barley cultivation. conversely, the study result exemplified that fertilizer used at zero-order difference had a negatively significant effect on barley output supply in the short-run, which implies that increased use of fertilizer in lagged period (last year) will reduce the current year’s barley output supply. this may be due to the inappropriate use of fertilizers among farmers in ethiopia. in conclusion, the elasticity estimates of climatic and non-climatic variables presented in this study can be a useful addition to the repository of knowledge on the supply elasticity of agricultural commodities in the country at an aggregate level. the results can also be used to design appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies and measures in the future. acknowledgments the author is grateful to the different institutions that made available the dataset used in this study. funding the article did not have a donation or other funding sources. the main author has covered all the expenses involved, including the purchase of meteorology data from nma. conflict of interest the author declares that there are no competing interests. declaration on non-submission or published with other journals the author declares that this submission has not been previously published, nor is it before another journal for consideration. 50 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 03 | september 2022 data availability the data used for this study can be made available upon request provided there is going to be compliance with the owners’ policy concerning sharing. references [1] gardi, m.w., memic, e., zewudu, e., et al., 2022. simulating the effect of climate change on barley yield in ethiopia with the dssat-ceres-barley model. agronomy journal. 114, 1128-1145. 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[48] elbeydi, k., eljadi, a.a., 2007. measuring the supply response function of barley in libya. african crop science conference proceedings. 8, 1277-1280. 20 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.383 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae entrepreneurship skill for empowering women in cocoyam production in abia and imo states, nigeria lake basin, nigeria ugboaja, c. i.　onu s. e.* department of agricultural extension and rural development, michael okpara university of agriculture, umudike article info abstract article history received: 22 april 2021 accepted: 28 may 2021 published online: 31 may 2021 the study adopted survey design to determine the entrepreneurial skills for empowering women in cocoyam production in abia and imo states of nigeria. objectives of the study were to determine the entrepreneurship skills available that are utilized for empowering women in cocoyam production and determine the extension strategies for empowering women in cocoyam production. the hypothesis of the study states that there is no significant mean difference between the available entrepreneurship skills and strategies utilized for empowering women in cocoyam production. questionnaire was the instrument for data collection constructed on a 4-point measuring scale which has (x=2.50) as the cut of point. instrument was validated by peer review of two experts in agricultural extension and statistics. the reliability was achieved by subjecting the data collected from pre-survey to cronbach’s alpha which yield a reliability co-efficient rα = 0.83 which affirmed high reliability index. multi-stage simple probability and disproportionate sampling technique was used to select sample size of 250. in abia, 100 women cocoyam farmers were sampled while 150 were sampled from imo state. the instrument was administered and retrieved by the help of research assistants such as extension agents and executives of women development union in the sampled areas. the data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics of frequency, mean and inferential statistics as t-test at 0.05 level of significance. the findings revealed that entrepreneurship skills were available in empowering women with the pooled mean scores of (2.78) for abia and (3.13) for imo state. the imo women were better than abia cocoyam farmers. it was also indicated that strategies for empowering women cocoyam farmers were used more in imo state with x2=2.07 than abia state x1=1.97. the hypothesis of no significant mean difference was not rejected because t = -0.003 at p ≥ 0.05 indicated no mean difference between the strategies utilized in abia and imo state for empowering women on entrepreneurship skills in cocoyam production. it was concluded that women cocoyam farmers were less empowered and had less access to land, fund and extension services in both imo and abia state. but the imo cocoyam farmers were marginally better than their abia women cocoyam farmers counterpart on the strategies used on empowering women on entrepreneurship skills in cocoyam production. it was concluded that cocoyam farmers were less empowered on entrepreneurship skills, hence, they had less access to land, fund and extension services. the study recommended that more women should be employed into the wia arm of the adp to enable them sufficiently empower women to get access to entrepreneurship skills such as agronomic and business skills to enhance cocoyam production. keywords: entrepreneurship empowerment women cocoyam production 　 *corresponding author: onu s.e.; samsononu@gmail.com 21 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.383 1. introduction agriculture is the pillar of socio-economic development in nigeria. majority of the farmers operate at the subsistence small holder level. the subsistence agriculture show case women as major player in providing household food security. food and agriculture organization (fao), (2011) observed that women play dominant role in agriculture and constitute a major ingredient for both economic growth and development especially in the rural areas. it was also revealed that women constitute 60-90% labour force in agriculture and produce 70-80% of household food and nutrition security. women now have been involved in doing most of the men work roles in farming activities such as bush clearing related activities in food production generally and specifically regarding cocoyam production in abia and imo states respectively. these activities include; farm site selection, bush clearing, mounding, ridging, planting, weeding, earthen-up, harvesting, sorting (dike, 2016). cocoyam production is entirely women business and training and educating them in this regard will be socially and economically beneficial to the society. the entrepreneurship skills cannot be appropriately acquired and utilized in cocoyam production by women if they are not informally and formally trained. the extension service has the sole responsibility to empower women to acquire the required entrepreneurship skills through her arm of women in agriculture (wia). yemisi and mukhtar (2009) noted that establishment of wia programme ensured that extension service in each state of nigeria has female extension workers at every level of operation from the state headquarters to the grass roots. the formation of wia farmers group is meant to facilitate the dissemination of agricultural innovations and provide women farmers with better access to farm inputs and credit than they would have as individuals which is some form of empowerment. it should be noted that any empowerment of the rural women whose majority (68.1%) had no formal education should start with writing, reading and numeracy training (acha, 2014). acha (2014) said that the surest way in educating women in cocoyam production is by using extension strategies and methods and sharpening their entrepreneurship powers and insight in both agronomic and business and information and communication skills. agbarevo (2010) and asiabaka (2002), enumerated the extension strategies that can be utilized in empowering women as follows: individual strategies which include: individual demonstration, individual farm and home visits, office and telephone calls. the group strategies include: group demonstration, workshops, seminars, conferences, excursions and field trips, symposia, field days and agricultural shows. they pointed out that mass strategies are radio, television, internets, newspapers magazines, newsletters, bulleting and pamphlets. burk and major (2014) contented that empowering women should not end in empowering them in acquisition of basic literacy and agronomic skills but should gear toward granting them access to basic economic resources for cocoyam production. in addition, market networks and connections in educating consumers on the nutritional values of cocoyam to increase demand and profit margin of women respectively. entrepreneurship is the ability of the individual to identify business opportunity, establishing that enterprise by risking and managing his resources to run the business profitably. iheonunekwu (2012), defined entrepreneurship as the capacity and willingness of establishing and management of business enterprise successfully by making profit. the venture of women to involve cocoyam production and making profit is the product of empowering them to acquire entrepreneurship skills in cocoyam production. entrepreneurship can as well be defined as the capacity and willingness to develop, organize and manage business venture along with any of its risks in order to make profit (armi, 2015). schumpter (1976) saw entrepreneurship as employment of gale of creative destruction to replace in whole or part inferior offerings across market and industries, simultaneously creating new products and new business. this involved a paradigm shift from old method of agronomic and business strategies where value are added and new method used in the production, processing and marketing of cocoyam. cocoyam production in nigeria is dominated by women and is commonly described in abia and imo states as the women crop. chukwu (2014) revealed that cocoyam is a generic name for colocasia esculenta (tara) and xanthosoma mafafa (tennia) which is cultivated for its corms and cormels which are used as edible aroids. chukwu and simsek (2015), observed that cocoyam has more food value than yam and cassava in terms of percentage crude protein and essential minerals. cocoyam corms and cormels are recommended as edible starch for diabetic patients due to its high glycemic property. cocoyam as food can be eaten for control, prevention and reduction of some incidence and prevalence of health risks associated with high blood pressure, cardiac problems, prostrate and breast cancers. the major problems associated with empowering women in entrepreneurial skills in cocoyam production are related to some socio-cultural and institutional 22 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 factors. the women are highly discriminated and marginalized against in almost every facets of development efforts in agriculture because, in extension system, the wia arm are short-staff of women, notwithstanding that the ratio of extension staff to farm families is very low (yemisi, and mukhtar, 2009). food and agricultural organization (fao) (2011) observed that only 5% of women receive agricultural extension service from 15% women extension agents worldwide. women cocoyam farmers experience gender specific constraints such as access to land where the land tenure arrangement favours their men counterpart. when the land is available their access amount to little economic rate of return. ekong and olowu (2002) indicated that most of the time, women farmers are denied access to funds and agro-inputs because they cannot provide collateral for loan neither have they been sufficiently trained to utilize the entrepreneurship skills in both agronomic and business activities in cocoyam production. similarly, ogbimi and williams (2014) assessed the availability of productive assets such as land, credit facilities, improved farm inputs and technology, extension services, transportation and storage facilities and found out that women are marginalized by men in accessing productive assets. kimenju et al., (2015) observed that the decision to participate in the production of a particular crop is normally influenced by market-driven and socio-cultural concomitants. the men and women were differentially affected in both pre-planting and post-planting operations, productive resources, socio-cultural factors and decision to participate in relation to market-driven forces. ogbonna and orji (2013) pointed out that cocoyam production has suffered serious neglect due to low yield per hectare and low economic return. the study seeks to answer the questions that borders on entrepreneurship skills for empowering women to enhance cocoyam production in the study area. 2. objective of the study the general objective is to determine the extent entrepreneurial skills are utilized in empowering women in cocoyam production in abia and imo states. specifically to: i. identify available entrepreneurship skills utilized for empowering women in cocoyam production in the study area; ii. determine strategies utilized for empowering women on entrepreneurship skills in cocoyam production in the study area; and iii. ascertain the constrains for empowering women in abia and imo states cocoyam production null hypothesis h0: the null hypothesis of this study states that there is no significant mean difference between the strategies utilized for empowering women on entrepreneurship skills in cocoyam production in abia and imo states. methodology this study adopted descriptive survey to assess the entrepreneurship skills for empowering women in cocoyam production in abia and imo states. the population of the study is all the women cocoyam farmers in three (3) agricultural zones in abia and imo states. purposive and multi-stage simple probability and disproportionate sampling technique was used to select the sample size of 250. in the first stage three (3) agricultural zones in abia and imo states thus; ohafia, umuahia and aba from abia state and owerri, orlu and okigwe zones were purposively sampled from imo state. secondly, five (5) local government areas each were sampled from abia state out of 17 and 5 out of 27 from imo. thirdly, 2 communities in abia and 3 communities in imo were selected from the sampled local government areas respectively. finally, 10 women cocoyam farmers each were sample from the 10 selected communities in abia and 15 selected communities in imo states respectively which gave 100 women cocoyam farmers from abia and 150 from imo state. the instrument for data collection was the questionnaire which was the source of the primary data. this instrument was constructed on a 4-point measuring scale of strongly agreed [sa] = 4; agreed [a] = 3; and disagreed [d] = 2 strongly disagreed [sda] = 1. the instrument was validated by peer review of research experts in agricultural extension and statistics in michael okpara university of agriculture, umudike. the reliability of the instrument was established by analyzing the data collected from a pilot survey using cronbach’s alpha which yielded a co-efficient r α = 0.83 which showed that the instrument was highly reliable. the instrument was administered by the help of research assistants such as women union development executives in order to ensure prompt distribution and retrieval of the completed questionnaire. the data was analysed by descriptive statistics such as frequency, mean and inferential statistics such as t-test. model specifications mean x = = = = ∑ ∑ fx f 4 3 2 1 10+ + + 4 4 2.50 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.383 23 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 tcal = x x s s n n 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 − + at 0.05 level of significance specifications: x = mean responses based on each item of questionnaire for abia and imo states. x1 = pooled mean responses for abia based on all items in the tables. x2 = pooled mean responses for imo based on all items in the tables. ∑f = summation frequency of the number of respondents. ∑fx = cumulative frequency of responses from the rating scale on each item of the questionnaire. s21 = variance of the strategies used for empowering women in cocoyam production in abia state. s22 = variance of the strategies used for empowering women in cocoyam production in imo states. n1 = number of respondents sampled in abia state. n2 = number of respondents sampled in imo state. tcal = t calculated. 3. results and discussions table 1. cumulative frequency and mean ratings based on the available entrepreneurship skills utilized for empowering women in cocoyam production in abia and imo states available entrepreneurship skills utilized by women in cocoyam production (n = 250) abia state ∑fx x imo state ∑fx x remarks 1. pre-planting skills such as bush clearing and clearing, ridge and mound making 285 2.85 419 2.79 a 2. planting of cocoyam set sets/cormels 348 3.48 533 3.55 sa 3. post-planting skills such as mulching, weeding and harvesting 353 3.53 582 3.88 sa 4. skills in application of agro-chemicals such as fertilizer, herbicides, insecticides and pesticides 223 2.23 369 2.46 da 5. post-harvesting skills such as transportation, sorting and grading and storage of cormels in barns 369 3.69 572 3.81 sa 6. business management skills such as identification of opportunities, record keeping, financial and human management and marketing skills 212 2.12 347 2.31 da pooled mean x=2.78 x=3.31 sa source: field survey, 2016 the table 1 result above shows that entrepreneurship skills were available for empowering women in imo state than abia state judging from the pooled mean (1 for abia state and imo state (2. discrepancies were also found on the entrepreneurship skills in the available agrochemicals used for empowering women for abia state ( and imo state ( for business management skills ( for abia state and ( for imo state. these results showed that women cocoyam farmers in imo state were marginally better than their counterparts in abia state and these results were based on the benchmark of 2.50. the implication is that women in abia state receive less empowerment in agronomic and business entrepreneurship skills in cocoyam production than their imo counterpart. this result is in agreement with fao (2011) which indicated that only 5% of women received extension services worldwide indicating that women are poorly empowered not only in abia and imo states but across the borders of agricultural communities in nigeria. table 2. cumulative frequency and mean ratings based on the extension strategies utilized for empowering women on entrepreneurship skills in cocoyam production in abia and imo states available entrepreneurship skills utilized by women in cocoyam production (n = 250) abia state ∑fx x imo state ∑fx x remarks 1. individual extension teaching such as farm, home and office visits, demonstration in farmers farm and the use of contact farmers. 158 1.58 263 1.75 sda 2. the group extension teaching such as demonstration, seminars, workshops, field days and field-trips, discussions, role-play and exhibit of specimen, samples, models and charts. 166 1.66 236 1.57 sda 3. the mass media methods like radio, television, tape recorder, films, videos, land and cell phones, posters, hand bills, and pamphlets. 222 2.22 362 2.41 da 4. extension training and teaching using individual, group and mass media on both agronomic and entrepreneurship commercialization skills in cocoyam production and processing and marketing. 215 2.15 342 2.28 da 5. the use of wia, ngo and government, access to credit, land and linkage to cocoyam markets in production and processing of cocoyam. 224 2.24 348 2.32 da pooled mean x=1.97 x=2.07 da source: field survey, 2016 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.383 24 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 in table 2, the result shows strong disagreement in the use of extension strategies for empowering women farmers in cocoyam production considering the pooled mean ( for abia and ( for imo cocoyam farmers and the results were based on the benchmark of 2.50. hence farm, home, and office visits, and demonstration were not so much utilized as strategies for empowering women in cassava production for abia = 1.58 and imo 75. the implication was that extension services were not very concerned in empowering women cocoyam farmers generally but extension services were better in imo state using extension strategies than their counterpart in abia state. this result agreed with the finding of ekong and oluwu (2002) that women were denied access to extension services. one would wonder how they will utilize entrepreneurship skills when they were not properly trained, educated and informed in cocoyam production. table 3. cumulative frequency and mean ratings based on respondents opinions on constrains for empowering women in cocoyam production available entrepreneurship skills utilized by women in cocoyam production (n = 250) abia state ∑fx x imo state ∑fx x remarks 1. low level access to extension education for empowering women on entrepreneurship skills in both pre and post planting operation. 280 2.78 398 2.65 a 2. low level of extension education for empowering women in the processing of cocoyam corms into flour, chips and flex. 325 3.25 422 2.81 sa 3. poor access to farm inputs such as land, credits and machines for production and process of cocoyam corms 289 2.89 348 2.56 a 4. poor yield and small holding associated with cocoyam production limit extension activities due to low rate of return. 295 2.95 416 2.77 a 5. lack of entrepreneurship education relating to record keeping, advertizing, marketing and accounting 273 2.73 402 2.68 a pooled mean x=2.92 x=2.69 a source: field survey, 2016 table 3 indicated that abia women cocoyam farmers were more constrained with the pooled mean (2 than their counterpart in imo state (2 these results were based on the benchmark of 2.50. specifically respondents agreed that women had low level to extension education and in pre-planting operations with the mean of 2.78 for abia and 2.65 for imo. women cocoyam farmers had limited access empowering them on entrepreneurship skills in processing of cocoyam corms into chips flour among others with for imo state. the implication was that women were neglected and discriminated against being empowered in getting access to extension education, inputs, land and credits among others. this result is in terms with chukwu (2015) who revealed that because cocoyam production was neglected these days and government and extension delivery system thought that giving access to women cocoyam farmers would be a waste of resources by implication constraining women access to education and input (empowerment) in cocoyam production. hypothesis testing table 4. the t-test of no mean significant difference between the strategies utilized for empowering women on entrepreneurship skills in cocoyam production in abia and imo states category n x sd df t-cal t-crit level of significance remark abia 100 1.97 .46 imo 150 2.07 .63 248 -0.003 1.96 0.05 not significant total 250 source: field survey, 2016 table 4 indicated that there is no significant difference between the strategies used for empowering women in entrepreneur skills on cocoyam production in abia and imo states, because, the t-cal = -0.003 was less than t-crit. @ p ≥ 0.05 and the null hypothesis was not rejected. by implication extension strategies were not fruitfully used for empowering women in entrepreneurship skills in cocoyam production in the study areas. 4. conclusion the study design was survey which determined the entrepreneurship skills for empowering women in cocoyam production in abia and imo states, nigeria. the instrument for data collection was the questionnaire which was used to realize the objectives of the study. descriptive and inferential statistics were used for data analysis. it was shown that most of the entrepreneurship agronomic skills were utilized for empowering women in cocoyam production except for the use agrochemicals. the study also found out that the extension strategies were not normally used in empowering women entrepreneurship skills in cocoyam production in the study areas. the women cocoyam farmers were found to face a lot of constrains such as access to land, credit and extension service. comdoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.383 25 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 paratively, imo women cocoyam farmers were marginally better than abia women cocoyam farmers in terms of empowerment in the use and constrains of entrepreneurship skills in cocoyam production. 5. recommendations the recommendations made based on the findings were as follows: i. the women cocoyam farmers should be empowered by the extension officers to form co-operative societies to enable them gain access to land, credit to boost their production capacity and income; ii. the women in agricultural arm of the agricultural development programme should collaborate with the governments of abia and imo states to employ more women extension officers to enable them reach out to more women cocoyam farmers on the use of entrepreneurship skills for cocoyam production in abia and imo states; and iii. the extension system should empower women cocoyam farmers in business entrepreneurship skills to enable them discover opportunities to market their cocoyam corms and cormels and their products in abia and imo states. references [1] acha, c. k. (2014). trend and levels of women empowerment in nigeria. american journal of applied mathematics and statistics vol. 2, no. 6 pp 402-408 [2] agbarevo, m. n. b & obinne, c. p. o. (2010) element of rural sociology and agricultural extension. teo publishers. pp 87 – 100. [3] asiabaka, c. c. (2002). agricultural extension. a hand book for development practitioners, omoku, rivers state: 167 ahoada road, molsyfem united services [4] burk,r. j. & major, d. a. (2014). gender in organization. are men allies or adversaries to women career advancement. northampton: edward elga publishers. [5] chukwu, g. o. & eteng, (2014)a. enhancing soil health and control of cocoyam root through integrated plant nutrition, basic reasearch journal of soil and environmental science. http/www.basicresearchjournals.org. issn2345-4090 no. 6, 2(4) pp 40 – 45 [6] chukwu, g, okoye, b. c., onwubiko, o., okonkwo, e. i. & amadi, c. o. (2014)b. gocken technology: ehancing health of haplic acrisols and multiplication of taro in nigeria. asian journal of science and technology [7] dike, f. c. (2016). evaluation of gender participation in cocoyam production for food security in abia state, nigeria. unplished thesis of post graduate school. umudike: michael okpara university of agriculture. [8] ekong, e. e & olowu (2002). women access to agricultural production resources in akwa-ibom state nigerian journal of rural sociology vol. 4, no. 1 pp 58 – 59 [9] food & agricultural organization (2011). the state of food and agriculture: women in agriculture. www.fao.org/gender/infographic/en retrieved 12/02/2017 [10] iheonunekwu, s. (2012). entrepreneurship theory and practice. second edition. 73 mbaise road, owerri: crown publishers limited. [11] kimenju, s. c., de groote, h., kanugia, j., mbogoh, s., & poland, d. (2015). consumer awareness attitudes towards genetically modified food in kenya. african journal biotechnology vol. 4 ( 1 0 ) 1 0 6 6 1075. [12] ogbimi, g. e. & williams, s. e. (2014). assessment of the availability of productive assets to women in agricultural development. agricultural extension and poverty alleviation in nigeria. olowu t.a (ed) proceedings of the 16th annual national conference of the agricultural extension society of nigeria, april 10th – 12th pp 56-64 [13] ogbonna , p. e., & orji, k. o., (2013). evaluation of the growth and yield potential of cultivars o f cocoyam (colocasia esculenta) in locations in south eastern nigeria. nigerian journal of crop science vol. i. no 1. pp 105-115 [14] schumpter, j. (1976). capitalism, “socialism and democracy. routledge. isbn 978-0-415-10767-4 [15] yemisi, i. o. & muktar, a. a. (2009). gender issues in agricultural and rural development in nigeria: the role of women. humanity and social sciences journal, idosi publications pp 19 – 30 4 (1) doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.383 45 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.427 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae discussion on high-yield cultivation and assembling and supporting technology of selenium-enriched rice and rapeseed rotation in taoyuan county bangxing ye¹* keping jiang² haijun hou³ jiaqing wang4 1. comprehensive agricultural service center of zhangjiang street, taoyuan county, hunan 415700, china 2. selenium-enriched products research institute of taoyuan county, hunan, 415700, china 3. taoyuan ecological experimental station, chinese academy of sciences, hunan, 415700, china 4. leading group of selenium-enriched functional agriculture of taoyuan county, hunan, 415700, china article info abstract article history received: 7 july 2021 accepted: 22 july 2021 published online: 31 july 2021 taoyuan county is a large grain and rapeseed production county. taking advantage of the resource advantage of soil rich in selenium in taoyuan county, it promotes high-yield cultivation and assembly technology of selenium-rich rice and rapeseed rotation in one-season rice area, optimizing the aggregate structure of the soil, improving the soil ecology and reducing the content of heavy metals in the soil, laying the foundation for the continuous increase in agricultural efficiency and farmers’ income. through rice and rapeseed rotation, the overwintering base of rice field borers are reduced, and the incidence of pests and diseases in the coming year is effectively reduced. the popularization of assembling and supporting technologies for rice-rapeseed rotation cropping and the promotion of high-quality varieties and planting techniques can increase the farmers' income significantly. this paper will describe the methods and technologies in detail from three aspects: the assembling and supporting methods of selenium-enriched rice and rapeseed rotation high-yield cultivation, main points of the supporting technology for the rice selenium-enriched cultivation and main points of supporting technology for the rapeseed selenium-enriched cultivation. keywords: selenium-enriched rice and rapeseed rotation assembling cultivation technology 1. assembling and supporting methods 1.1 reasonable selection and matching of varieties the crops should be arranged according to the different principles of riceoil’snutrient requirements. by selecting suitable crops of high-quality rice and double-low rapeseed varieties, rationally matching according to the growth period, making full use of temperature and light resources, supporting technology of rice rapeseed rotation cultivation with high efficiency can realize rice yields of more than 600kg per mu, rapeseed yields of more than 150kg per mu (=0.0667 hectares), and the total economic benefits of more than 1,000-2,000 yuan per mu. rice variety selection: high-quality, high-yield, stable-yield and resistant mid-maturing varieties (or midlate varieties) are selected according to local conditions. *corresponding author: bangxing ye, comprehensive agricultural service center of zhangjiang street, taoyuan county, hunan 415700, china; email: 312762776@qq.com 46 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 varieties that have passed the certification and have good rice quality, high and stable yield, suitable growth period, and strong resistance to diseases and insects should be selected, such as: yueliangyou 2646, hezhongxiang no. 2, kexiang no. 2, jingliangyou 1377, longjingyou 1195, jingliangyou 5438, gongxiangyoulongsi. rapeseed variety selection: double-low rapeseed varieties with strong lodging resistance, antibacterial nuclear disease, high yield and high oil yield are selected, such as, jingyou 99, xiangza you 631, xiangza you 518, sunshine 2009, huayouza 62, and coated seeds to achieve effective prevention and control of pieris rapae, aphids and diseases in the early stage of seedling. 1.2 fertilizer formulation on demand the strategy of using organic fertilizers instead of some chemical fertilizers, and the fertilization principles of reducing nitrogen, controlling phosphorus, stabilizing potassium and replenishing micro-fertilizers should be adhered to. organic nitrogen should account for more than 50% of the total nitrogen application. organic fertilizers can be green manure, straw, marsh manure, cake fertilizer, livestock and poultry manure and commercial organic fertilizer. the fertilization ratio of nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer for rice is 2:1:3, and attention should be paid to the application of micro-fertilizer on the leaf surface. rapeseed fertilization should be based on the principles of sufficient base fertilizer, early seedling fertilizer, stable moss fertilizer, and appropriate flower fertilizer, and scientific fertilization. fertilizers should comply with ny/t394-2000 regulations, and the use of chemical fertilizers, biological fertilizers, organic fertilizers and mineral fertilizers that have not been registered by the national or provincial agricultural department is prohibited. 1.3 appropriate mixing of pesticides pesticides in appropriate amounts should be used at the right time, and green technology of prevention and control of plant diseases and insect pests should be adopted, such as agricultural prevention and control, biological control, and physical and chemical trapping. the use of chemical pesticides should be in accordance with ny/t393, to control the use of chemical pesticides and the safety interval, and it should pay attention to reasonable mixing, rotation and alternate use of pesticides to overcome or delay the emergence and development of the drug resistance of pests and diseases. chemical pesticides should be implemented adhering to the accurate requirements for the standards, selections, periods, amount and methods. 1.4 scientific water transfer method water controlling irrigation. generally, the irrigation depth is about 2cm each time, and the time for the rice field exposed should be increased as much as possible. the field should not crack in other periods except the sundried period. lightly sun light several times in advance. when the number of seedlings in the field reaches about 80% of the planned ear number, the field will be dried. when the rice field edge is slightly cracked, and the middle of the field is not sunk for feet, the field will be irrigated with a small amount water, maintaining the crack not widened and the soil not soften, with repeated times dried. moist irrigation will be conducted when the young ear differentiation period begins, and water retention is the main thing from inverting 2 leaf tip stage to heading and flowering, and the moisturization is the main during the rice filling period. deep water temperature adjustment. in the case of high temperature during the rice filling period, the temperature can be adjusted by irrigating deep water of more than 10cm. generally, the water is cut off 7 days before harvest to ensure the soil moisture of the mechanized harvest of rice and the whole seedlings of rape. 2. main points of the supporting technology for the selenium-enriched cultivation of one season rice 2.1 seed treatment and seed quantity the rice seeds are sterilized and soaked, and the germination is accelerated until the breasts are broken, and the seeds are treated with 15% paclobutrazol wettable powder before sowing. the seeds are pretreated according to the standard of one catty (0.5 kg) of seeds, one gram of paclobutrazol, one (50 g) clear water, stack for one hour, (floppy disk seedling rice should not be treated with paclobutrazol). the seeding amount per mu for direct seeding of hybrid species in field is 1.5 kg, and that for transplanting or floppy disk seeding is 1.0 kg. 2.2 field improvement after a certain amount of basefertilizer is applied, a rotary tiller is used to rotatably harrow the field, generally twice. the spreading rice field shall be divided into compartments, the width of which is about 3m, and the depth about 25-30cm. a “tic-tac-toe”-shaped waist ditch should be opened for the larger sowing field, and a “cross” waist ditch should be opened for the smaller field, and the waist doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.427 47 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 ditches are 35-40cm deep. ditches around the field are opened with a depth of 30-35cm. 2.3 reasonable dense planting seedling and plot transplanting densities are as follows: hybrid rice 23.3×26.6 cm or 30.0×20.0 cm, two grains per stump, to ensure that the effective panicle number per mu paddy field is 200,000-220,000. 2.4 fertilizer and water management in rotary tillage, 80 kg of selenium-enriched bio-organic compound fertilizer is applied as base fertilizer per mu of field. in the rice seedling stage (2-3 leaf stage), 2.5-3 kg of urea is sprayed per mu to extract seedlings. in the rice seedling stage (4-5 leaf stage), microfertilizer is applied on the leaves. the selenium-enriched foliar fertilizer 1g + plant tonic 40g + brown sugar 75g + urea 50g are made into a 15 kg aqueous solution, which is sprayed 15 kg per mu. and spray 6-7.5 kg of urea per mu to promote tillering. at the end of tillering of rice, after drying the field and re-watering, strong fertilizers are applied according to the color of the seedlings. at the beginning of rice heading, micro-fertilizer is applied on the leaves. selenium-enriched foliar fertilizer 1g + plant strengthening agent 40g + brown sugar 75g + urea 50g + salt 40g + 20% benzyl prochloraz 15g (5% difenoconazole + 15% prochloraz, a kind of high efficiency, broad spectrum and low toxicity fungicide with multiple effects on various diseases) is formulated into a 15 kg aqueous solution, which is sprayed with 30 kg per mu. at the early stage of rice filling, the 15 kg of aqueous solution made of 1g of selenium-enriched foliar fertilizer, 40g of plant strengthening agent, 40g potassium dihydrogen phosphate and 40g of salt and 20% of benzyl ▪ prochloraz is sprayed 30 kg per mu. strong growth of grass seedlings in the early stage (no wind-growing seedlings), stable growth in the mid-term and no premature senescence in the late stage will be ensured through scientific fertilization. the leaves will be green, and seeds will be yellow with good color fading, achieving the goal of stable and high yield. 2.5 disease and pest control the comprehensive measures such as physical and chemical trapping and biochemical control are adopted to prevent and control diseases and insect pests, with prevention as the main, treatment as a supplement, and a combination of prevention and control. high-efficiency, low-toxicity, and low-residue pesticides are choosed, without the use of high-toxicity, high-residue pesticides and other banned pesticides. attention should be paid to the prevention and control of three insects and four diseases (three insects: rice leaf roller, second and third generation stem borer and rice planthopper) (four diseases: sheath blight, rice blast, bacterial blight and rice smut). 2.6 field plowing and improvement after harvesting, the “three ditches” (circle ditch, waist ditch and box ditch) and ridges should be opened in time ready for rapeseed transplanting (direct seeding). 3. main points of supporting technology for the rapeseed selenium-enriched cultivation 3.1 enough preparation of seedbed 0.12 mu seedbeds are needed one mu of rapeseed transplanting field, and 1.5-2kg of selenium-enriched organic compound fertilizers will be applied for deep soil preparation. 3.2 timely sowing the direct seeding time is september 15th to 20th, 200g per acre of field will be used for direct seeding, with thin and even sowing. the seedlings will be transplanted from august 28th to september 8th, 30g of field seeds will be transplanted per mu. thin and even sowing should be insisted. after sowing, dilute manure water is spread to cover the fire soil ash, and no seeds will be seen. 3.3 seedbed management the germination of seeds after sowing should be paid attention to, and the seedbed moist should be kept for the seedlings emergence. aphids, cabbage caterpillars, jumping beetles and ape leaf insects should be controlled, and damping-off in rainy days should be prevented. weeds should be removed, thinning seedlings should be well grasped, with seedlings retained, and about 50 strong seedlings should evenly be reserved per square meter. selenium should be supplemented to control seedlings. when the rapeseed seedlings grow to 5-6 leaves, each back tube water (15kg) + paclobutrazol 1g (to prevent high-footed seedlings) + selenium-enriched foliar fertilizer 1g (to supplement selenium) + plant strengthening agent 1g (to promote photosynthesis) + pesticides. application method: the agent should be spayed when doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.427 48 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 it is cloudy or sunny and there is no water droplets on the leaf surface. it will take snowflake form to spray covering the top once, and can not be repeated to avoid the injury caused by the strengthening agent. 3.4 enough preparation of pressed fertilizer enough fire soil ash 200 kg needs to be prepared for per mu rapeseed field, which will be planted thinly. selenium-enriched bio-organic compound fertilizer 10kg, urea 3kg, boron fertilizer 1.5kg, mixing into human and animal manure fertilizer 3-4 dans, are piled and covered with agricultural film or straw. 3-5 days after transplanting thin plants, 200g stump fertilizer is applied per plant. 3.5 field management topdressing and seedling promotion: 5-7 kg of urea is applied per mu 5day to 7days after transplanting. it should be applied when it is rainy. human and animal manure fertilizers will be added or mixed. urea should not be applied close to the roots to prevent roots burning, leaves damaging and seedlings death. inter-tillage weeding: closed chemical weeding should be applied once within 2-3 days in direct seeding field, and it is required that the field is sprayed once and evenly, and it must not be too late to affect the emergence of rapeseed. in transplanting field, cultivating and weeding will be conducted once ten days. clear ditch and drain: in the spring of the following year, when it is rainy and prolonged, the three ditches should be dredged to prevent waterlogging. clever application of winter fertilizers: before and after the winter solstice (december 18th-25th), according to the seedling sentiment and leaf color, the strong moss fertilizer should be applied. the first kind of seedlings has dark green leaves and 7.5-10kg of selenium-enriched biological organic compound fertilizer should are sprayed per mu. the second kind of seedlings have green and yellowish leaves, mainly green, and 12.5kg of selenium-enriched biological organic fertilizer and 5kg of urea are sprayed per mu. the third kind of seedlings have yellow and greenish leaves, mainly yellow, 15kg of selenium-enriched bio-organic compound fertilizer and 7.5kg of urea are sprayed per mu. after january 1st of the following year, regardless of whether the rapeseeds are growing well or not, top dressing is prohibited to prevent the rapeseeds returning to bloom in the later period, which may cause a reduction in production. three times appropriate fertilization: the first is when the rapeseed seedlings grow to 5-6 leaves, each knapsack sprayer (15 kg) will be added 1g of paclobutrazol (to prevent tall seedlings) + 1g of selenium-enriched foliar fertilizer (to supplement selenium) + insecticide. the second is moss stage (late december to mid-january) when the rapeseed seedlings are 35-40cm high and show flower buds. each knapsack sprayer (15kg) + 1g of plant strengthening agent + lg of selenium-enriched foliar fertilizer (to supplement selenium) + 1000-2000 times of 80% ethylicin e. c + 40g of salt (to prevent and cure rapeseed sclerotia) are compounded into 15kg solution to be sprayed 30kg per mu. the third time is from rapeseed bloom, early march of the following year. the spraying should be choosed when it is cloudy or sunny, with no water droplet on the rapeseed leaves and no strong wind. the type, dosage and dosage of the third application are the same as those of the second application. in order to increase the selenium content or prevent serious sclerotium disease, it is better to spray it with a drone in mid-april. 3.6 timely harvest if rapeseed is harvested too early, it will affect the rapeseed yield and oil yield and reduce income. harvesting is too late, increasing the difficulty of harvesting, causing a large amount of grain loss and reducing the harvest. during the silique ripening period, a harvester is used to harvest in a timely manner to ensure that the harvest is completed in mid-may without affecting the production of one season of rice. references [1] yan songgui, yao yafu, yang jinqiu. discovery and practice of selenium-enriched soil + biological selenium conversion method [j]. agricultural development and equipment. 2016, 4 (30-31). [2] fei weixin, rong songbai, chu mingguang, et al. study on the enrichment differences of heavy metals cadmium and copper in farmland soil by cabbage rapeseed varieties [j]. anhui agricultural sciences, 2019. [3] su honghu. discussion on the occurrence of rice stem borers and corresponding control measures in changde city [j]. china agricultural resources, 2013 (28). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.427 37 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.386 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae soil health daoren tuya　wang qi　mei ruhong chen yanxi microecology team, china agricultural university article info abstract article history received: 22 april 2021 accepted: 24 may 2021 published online: 31 may 2021 soil deterioration is caused by biological, physical and chemical factors and can not be attributed to chemical fertilizers. based on the concept of soil health, we use biological, physical and chemical measures to regulate ecological balance and achieve the remediation goal. soil is a small universe. the biological, physical and chemical systems engineering in the five levels of ecology should be used to control soil, restrain deterioration, repair balance and realize soil rehabilitation. this paper focuses on the correlation between soil health and inorganic fertilizer factors, and from microecology, regulates the dynamic balance of soil microecology with probiotics to achieve the goal of healthy soil fertility. keywords: soil remediation microecology 　1. soil health xi jinping proposed the concept of “big health.” the “healthy china 2030” plan focuses on the people, building a healthy environment, building healthy soil and developing healthy industries. xi jinping proposed the “community of common health for mankind” to vigorously promote the development of soil health industry. soil is an important part of the earth’s biosphere and the foundation of natural and artificial ecosystems. soil is alive, according to the “qian xuesen great health” concept, soil is the basis of human life activities. ten thousand years ago, “in the natural ecosystem”, the soil maintained its own ecological balance. ten thousand years later, it comes into the agroecosystem. the agroecosystems can be divided into primitive agroecosystems (10,0003,000 years). people used stone and wood tools, with manpower, and the cultivation method was slash-and-burn, which was an extensive management. the soil basically maintains the state of natural ecosystem with little change. from the primitive agro-ecological system to the traditional agro-ecological system (from 3000 to 300 years), people used iron tools, powered by animal power, and started continuous cropping, and the operating condition was intensive labor management. soil deterioration sometimes occurred but was not very serious. only in the recent 300 years, in the modern agricultural ecosystem, people used machinery, powered by steam engine (1760), electricity (1840), and began to crop rotation. the crop varieties became single, commodity production appeared, and the operating condition was capital intensive management. in particular, in 1828 german chemist wohler (f. w & ounl. hlel, 1800-1882) synthesized urea by artificial method for the first time in the world. although fertilizers accounted for about 40%-60% of the total crop yield increase, the soil deteriorated due to over application and improper application. with the addition of industrial pollution, agricultural waste, sewage irrigation, atmospheric pollutant settlement, heavy metal-containing mineral chemical fertilizers, chemical pesticides and so on, the soil gradually deteriorated, and some soil seriously deteriorated, especially by heavy metal pollution. soil deterioration causes: 1. crop reduction and quality decline; 2. destroying dynamic balance of organisms and microorganisms in the soil and decreasing soil vitality; 3. affecting human and animal health and increasing disease death rate; 4. change of physical condition of soil and soil binding; 5. decline of many animals, plants and microorganisms and serious imbalance. soil health is so seriously polluted that it is imperative to maintain soil health. 2. soil is a small universe 2.1 “grandpa will be greater in the twenty-first century” qian xuesen (1911-2009) put forward “human life 38 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 science” in the 1960s. the seventh scientific and technological revolution represented by human life science is not a simple the meaning literally, but represents the progress of future science and technology. all progress in biological, physical and chemical sciences will be reflected in the human life sciences. therefore, qian xuesen’s human life science is the perfect integration of most advanced science in the west and the traditional chinese science, which is the only independent and innovative high-tech science with chinese characteristics. in the last century, when qian xuesen won the medal of merit of “two bombs and one star,” his grandson said, “grandpa is great.” qian said “grandpa will be greater in the twenty-first century,” he told people: “human science may lead to a scientific and technological revolution in the twenty-first century, perhaps a scientific revolution greater than quantum mechanics and relativity theory in the early twentieth century!” 2.2 soil is a small universe qian xuesen thought that the human body is a small universe, because all the functions of the universe have a reaction on the human body, and the human body also reflects the existence and function of the universe at all levels. we know that our bodies are made of atoms of the quantity of 1028. we have somatic cells of the quantity of 1013 and bacteria in human body of the quantity of 1014. these 1028 magnitude of atoms form about 60 different elements, but the elements constituting human body are only 11. atoms form molecules by covalent bonds. the molecules come together to form aggregates, then form small organelles, cells, tissues, organs, and finally a whole human body. we know that all substance are made up of atoms, that is, biological, physical, chemical substance are made up of atoms. atoms form molecules, molecules form aggregates, and aggregates as mentioned previously eventually form the whole body of a human. the aggregates also form grains and animals. aggregates also form physical substances, such as steel and chemicals, such as oil. thus, all substances are made up of atoms, which are made up of basic particles. so everything goes back to the basic particle level, and they all have commonalities. inorganic fertilizers, organic fertilizers, microbial fertilizers are also made up of atoms, the existence of commonalities is inevitable. 2.3 five levels of ecology, three levels of regulation and one goal the whole universe is divided into space ecology, macroecology, microecology, molecular ecology and elementary particle ecology. the mechanism of maintaining soil health is cognized from these five levels. and the goal of “soil health” will be realized through “biological, physical and chemical” regulation. we study the “five levels, three regulations, one goal” model of soil health to achieve the “community of shared future for mankind,” and “community of human health.” 3. maintenance of soil ecological balance zhu fengmei (1895-1970), a senior in plant pathology, reported in 1962: “you can study lunar soil very clearly, but if i take a handful of campus soil, you never know it. because it is alive and evolving, it is dynamic, and you can only recognize this dynamic balance. you can only learn it, study it, adapt to it, and maintain this dynamic balance!” inorganic chemical fertilizers are confined to inorganic nitrogen (n), phosphorus (p), potassium (k) and these are collectively called chemical fertilizers. it is related to soil deterioration, and it is necessary to maintain the dynamic balance of three elements in soil remediation. the use of chemical fertilizers is regulated to the optimal dynamic balance threshold of economic, ecological and social benefits, and the biological, physical and chemical regulation measures are used to maintain soil health continuously. 3.1 soil deterioration can not all be attributed to chemical fertilizers we recognize soil as a small universe. chemical fertilizers account for 40%-60% of the contribution rate of grain increase in china, and the cultivated land accounts for 7% of the world, but it feeds 20% of the world population. there are many factors causing soil deterioration, including biological, physical and chemical factors. chemical fertilizers cause residue and pollution due to unscientific use. in different areas, due to different soil and different soil management, there are many other factors causing soil deterioration, not only the use of chemical fertilizers. 3.2 dialectical understanding of “not applying fertilizers” currently there are many unhealthy issues, such as climate warming, environmental deterioration, especially soil deterioration, soil urgent to repair, and so on. the state implements the “healthy china 2030” regulation outline and implements the” big health concept “. soil health is first among them. the organic offered not to doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.386 39 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 apply fertilizers. many businesses use “no chemical fertilizer” as their broadcast to promote their so-called “organic food” or “green food”. subjectively, we should look at the deterioration of soil from the dialectical point of view, objectively follow the principle of nature, maintaining the dynamic ecological balance of soil, and actively solve the soil pollution, soil poisoning, soil slates, soil disease aggravation and other numerous negative issues. we should “advocate dialectics, follow nature” and maintain the dynamic balance of soil. we can apply chemical fertilizers, but build healthy, sustainable healthy soil, as long as there is no residue and no pollution. we should take soil deterioration as the result of the historical development process and our scientific development process. we should acknowledge that chemical fertilizers have contributed in the historical development process. we should not negate them all. meanwhile we need to value its negative issues. things have duality, we should “increase benefits and reduce harm.” farmers didn’t accept it when they began to promote “fat field powder “(ammonia sulfate) more than 60 years ago, but it could increase production and ensure a good harvest. people accepted it and became increasingly dependent on it. the application rate of chemical fertilizers rose sharply, and the excessive application and the uncontrolled use of chemical fertilizers paid attention to the “benefits increase” and neglected the “harm reduction”, resulting in various ills of soil health, and the “soil remediation” had to put on the schedule and became more and more urgent. today, instead of negating chemical fertilizers totally, we should reduce the harm of chemical fertilizers to the economic, ecological and social three-benefit threshold. we should use chemical fertilizers according to soil and crop environment, with timely and appropriate methods. if the use of fertilizer can be achieved without residue and pollution, then everyone will be happy. we have used yield-increasing beneficial bacteria to degrade nitrate content in crops and actively eliminate residues of chemical fertilizers. this is the active solution on the basis of active prevention and control and has index significance. the human, material and financial resources of chemical fertilizer research and development are used to study the “man-made disaster of chemical fertilizer”, so as to make it “increase benefits and reduce harm,” which will surely get higher and better results than just prevention. 3.3 regulation of soil health soil health regulation is a systematic project, soil remediation is a link of soil health regulation. there are five links of soil health: 1) soil health monitoring; 2) prevention of soil deterioration; 3) diagnosis of soil deterioration; 4) soil remediation; 5) soil rehabilitation. we want to look at soil “medicine” with the concept of health medicine. the diagnosis of soil deterioration is like that we go to the hospital to see a doctor, in the soil “medicine”, the doctor carries out indoor and outdoor survey, diagnoses the soil “disease.” “soil remediation” is like the treatment after diagnosis. therefore, before “diagnosis”, there are two links, namely, “soil health monitoring” and “prevention of soil deterioration.” “soil health monitoring”, like human, is monitored from fetus, birth, growth, life and death. as for the soil, we should monitor it at all times. especially when we enter the “cloud” era, we have “beidou” and “huawei.” we can clearly monitor the changes of the soil at all times, and the dynamic balance between the “benefit” and “harm.” therefore, there is the second link, “prevention of soil deterioration.” when something is wrong in the process of monitoring the dynamic balance of soil, we adopt biological, physical and chemical techniques to keep the “benefit” and “harm” of soil health within the three-effect threshold of economy, ecology and society. only if the dynamic balance of soil is seriously out of balance, we can enter the “diagnosis” and “remediation.” soil health management and control is after “remediation,” and there is also the fifth link “soil rehabilitation.” we should not think the job is done after the “remediation”, but should be proactively into the fifth link “soil rehabilitation.” in the “rehabilitation” phase, it is necessary to consolidate the “remediation” effect and control other soil deterioration factors. to realize the dynamic balance of soil health in “health ↔ sub-health ↔ deterioration ↔ remediation ↔ sub-health ↔ health,” and to promote the dynamic balance to benefit three-benefit threshold. we need to maintain the dynamic balance of soil health from “advocating dialectics and following nature.” monitor ↔ prevention ↔ deterioration ↔ diagnosis ↔ remediation ↔ rehabilitation. 4. theory and practice of microecological soil remediation professor chen yanxi (1924-2010) participated in the revolution in 1932 and was the third generation master of plant pathology in china. in his long-term revolutionary experience, he was familiar with dialectics and followed the principle of nature: attaching importance to relating the theory with the practice, and putting practice the first place. in 1976, he led a team to create “microecology,” doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.386 40 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 which is defined as: the biological individual is a complex of cell tissue and microorganisms, and it is the branch of life science studying the composition, function and substitution of these microorganisms, the relationship among the microorganisms, and the relationship between microorganism and microenvironment of organism. we think the soil is a small universe, the five ecological levels respond in the scope of soil, but the microecological level is most intuitive, visible for us. we emphasize the use of biological, physical and chemical soil remediation techniques to control the deterioration of soil. soil deterioration factors are complex, and soil remediation measures are more complex. in this paper, the microbial factors in soil are discussed. as mentioned previously, soil is lively and a small universe, mainly because of microbes in the soil. more than 3 billion years ago. we are living in a microbial world. microorganisms are classified as bacteria, fungi, algae, commonly known as parasites of the protozoa and worms, another category, namely viruses. a virus is a simple organism that can only be replicated in living cells. it is not strictly considered as a living organism, but it is also attributed to microorganisms. microbes evolved from aquatic ones to terrestrial ones, and from simple to complex. the terrestrial microbes live early on in the crust. so far in today’s soil, there are very many microorganisms living in the 20 cm tillage layer. the microbial communities, species and numbers in this tillage layer change from time to time. the microbial population and its quantity in the soil and its biological yield are changing under various tillage conditions, different crop species and different growth stages. in the last century, our team spent 10 years in langfang cotton wilt disease nursery, monitoring systematically cotton wilt bacteria. it also took ten years to make a systematic investigation and study on the condition dynamics of wheat all-etching disease in fengning dam. professor wang qi has conducted a study since 2006. he divided two mu (approximate 66.5 square meters) of field in shangzhuang experimental area of our university into six plots, one of which uses compound chemical fertilizer and the other five use organic fertilizer to different gradients. the experiments have been carried out for 14 years, and the soil microflora has been analyzed year by year, as well as the observation and study of the biological yield and characters of wheat-maize crops. soil deterioration is caused by biological, physical and chemical factors. we use micro-organisms to regulate the biological, physical and chemical factors of soil deterioration based on microecology and its business theory and practice. microecological regulation technology is used to repair soil, reach the economic, ecological and social benefit threshold, and build healthy soil. 5. case of building healthy soils -prevention and treatment of soil-borne diseases 5.1 self-healing power of healthy soil wheat take-all (1) wheat take-all is widely distributed all over the world. it was first recorded in the uk in 1884, and was first discovered in zhejiang province in china in 1931. in the early 1970s, wheat take-all occurred seriously in huangxian county, yantai, shandong province, and was expanded to 19 provinces. it is a devastating disease and can go out of production. (2) wheat take -all is a continuous cropping disease, which is aggravated year by year. when the incidence rate and severity of the disease reach the peak, the disease index continues to decrease year by year, and the crop yield increases due to the reduction of the disease. this phenomenon is called a “takeall decline (tad).” the peak period of disease usually lasts 1-3 years. after the peak period, the disease declined at different rates due to different soil health. the mechanism of tad is mainly associated with the beneficial microbes in the soil. (3) in the last century, we spent ten years on fengning dam to systematically observe the whole process of wheat take-all disease in one mu of wheat field: onset severe disease decline mild disease basically no disease. the generation of orange resistance soil is related to the population and quantity of beneficial microorganism in soil. therefore, in laiwu, shandong province, we increased the application of organic fertilizer, nitrogen fertilizer, and use beneficial bacteria such as pseudomonas fluoresceae, bacillus, and other microbial fertilizer, and achieved good results. the application of nitrogen fertilizer and probiotics accelerated the increase of resistance to wheat take-all disease, and eventually the disease declined and gradually eliminated. later, in huangxian county, there was no single sample of wheat take-all disease found. soil is a living organism and has the ability to heal itself. 5.2 comprehensive treatment of microecological regulation fusarium wilt of cotton (1) fusarium wilt of cotton can occur from seedling stage to adult stage, and reach the peak before and after budding. fusarium oxysporum can survive for 6-7 years in soil and chlamydospores can survive for up to 15 years. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.386 41 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 the pathogen mainly intrudes from the epidermal cells or wounds of cotton plants. the pathogen intrudes through the cortex and enters the catheter, and propagates and expands in the catheter, distributing to the whole plant. (2) in the 1970s and 1980s, our team established a plant nursery for studying fusarium wilt of cotton in langfang, hebei province, and conducted systematic observation and research on fusarium wilt for ten years. fusarium oxysporum occurred in the soil, through the root surface, into cotton, then into the vascular, extending the whole plant. in this process, fusarium oxysporum broke through the layers of microbial protection in the natural ecosystem of cotton, so as to seriously develop in the bud stage of cotton. the prevention and treatment of fusarium wilt of cotton should adopt comprehensive management strategies of protecting disease-free areas (fields), eliminating sporadic areas (fields), controlling light areas (fields) and reforming seriously ill areas (fields). microecological preparations such as bacillus and trichoderma can be used for microecological regulation of wilt disease. for example, when sowing, biological control preparations were used in combination with seed fertilizer, seed disinfectant and seed granulation technology; i.e., microecological preparations were used near the seeds. a. isolation agent was added. b. middle layer was fertilizer, and isolation agent was added. c. the outer layer was seed chemical disinfectant. d. the isolation layer can be made of methyl cellulose and other film forming agents. microbial bacteria were used as base fertilizer to control the propagation of fusarium wilt bacteria in soil and reduce infection potential. microecological bacteria formed bacteriostatic soil in cotton rhizosphere, reducing the infection potential and infection rate of fusarium wilt bacteria. during the growing period of cotton, microecological preparation was sprayed especially at the lower petiole of cotton buds, to slow the spreading of wilting bacteria in vascular bundles. enhanced microecological preparation used at the lower petiole of the buds can retain the first and second leaves under the buds, and cotton can retain basic biological production. in order to control fusarium wilt of cotton more effectively, microecological preparations can be combined with other disease control measures. 6. dynamic balance of soil microecology is the foundation of soil remediation dynamic balance of soil microflora as for that the treatment of wheat take-all disease, fusarium wilt of cotton followed the principle of “dialectics and nature” and used the concept of microecological regulation to view the dynamic balance of microbial “increase benefits and reduce harm” in soil remediation. microecological fertilizer is the basic measure to control soil deterioration. in “bacteria fertilizer” concept, “bacteria” is referred to microbial, and “fertilizer” can be organic fertilizer, or inorganic fertilizer. there are traditional bacteria – rhizobia, nitrogen-fixing bacteria, phosphorus and potassium releasing bacteria, pro-growth bacteria, mycorrhizal bacteria, photosynthetic bacteria, organic rotting bacteria. while this paper mainly focuses on bacillus, centering on the soil remediation of organic fertilizer. since 1976, the microecology team of china agricultural university has pioneered the application of bacillus as bacterial fertilizer and bacterial medicine. in 1979, the yield-increasing beneficial bacteria with bacillus as the main body was introduced. our team has been insisting for decades that each functional bacterium is fermented in a single way, and then “suit the remedy to the case,” forming a variety of compound bacterial agents aimed at a variety of deteriorated soil to different extent. as mentioned earlier, professor wang qi started study on one mu of cotton field in 2006, divided into six districts, one with compound fertilizer and the other five with organic fertilizer according to different gradients. it has been fourteen years, and the changes of soil microflora have been observed and studied year by year. if the soil deteriorates, then the soil is repaired. a comprehensive scientific judgment must be made according to the concept of system engineering, so that the disease can be repaired. case: obstacles to continuous cropping repeated stubble disease repeated stubble disease is the cancer in soil-borne disease the planting of the same crop in the same plot for several consecutive seasons or for many years is called “repeated stubble” in cultivation. repeated stubble disease is an iconic disease of soil deterioration. soil compaction, blind fertilization, high soil salinity and other factors are the reasons of soil erosion. while the reducing of soil beneficial microorganisms and microbial metabolites resulting in dynamic imbalance is the root cause of serious stubble disease. in 2018, our team carried anti-stubble preparations in the third china innovation challenge (lanzhou), won the winning team (first prize), helping to solve the planting technical problems in summer on plateau. on september doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.386 42 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 5, at on-site observation and promotion conference of the effect of technology solving needs in china innovation challenge (lanzhou lily), lily increased production by more than 500 yuan per mu in the test area, with an increase rate of up to 20%. a perfect answer was submitted by china agricultural university for anti-stubble microecological preparations. for many years, sunflower and other crops have been successfully controlled repeated stubble diseases. anti-stubble agent is the international leading innovation of china agricultural university. bacteria, such as bacillus, trichoderma, actinomycetes, scopulariomycetes, which were used to prevent and control repeated stubble diseases, were selected to prevent disease, promote growth and produce high yield. specialized fermentation techniques were used for single-strain fermentation. according to the main factors of soil deterioration, special bacteriological agents were combined with other agricultural measures to prevent and control repeated stubble diseases. in the anti-pandemic days, our team in daxing panggezhuang beijing succeeded at the prevention of watermelon root knot nematode by nematode-prevent microecological preparation. according to the principle of plant microecology, the nematode-prevent microecological preparation was a compound microecological preparation developed by single strain fermentation and multi-strain compounding and other special fermentation technology and preparation processing technology. probiotics multiplied rapidly and produced many metabolites when applied to soil. dominant flora formed in the soil, forming a tight protective layer around plant roots, which in turn reduced the incidence of root knot nematodes. in this case, it is clear that micro-organisms are used to regulate the dynamic balance of soil micro-ecology, increasing benefits and reducing harm, inhibiting soil deterioration and making the soil develop healthily. of course, microbial regulation and control should be combined with biological, physical and chemical control measures to actively repair deterioration factors and maintain soil health. references [1] chen yanxi. trans. plant root disease fungi. agricultural press. 1956. [2] m e i r u h o n g . b i o l o g i c a l c o n t r o l o f ta k e a l l disease in wheat [j]. journal of beijing agricultural university 8 (2). 1982. [3] ecological research of soil-borne plant pathogens. 1983. research institute of plant and biological control for plant diseases, beijing agricultural university. [4] mei ruhong. yield-increasing bacteria. agriculture press. 1989. [5] ji pingsheng. the mechanism of the yield-increasing bacteria [j]. chinese journal of microecology 3 (1): 92-95. 1991. [6] lu suyun et al. biological control of plant diseases. beijing agricultural university press. 1993. [7] mei ruhong. plant microecology. agricultural press. 1998. [8] baker k. f., cook r. j. biological control of plant pathogens. san francisco freeman. 1974. [9] georgeo n. agrios. disease control by immunizing, or improving the resistance of, the host plant pathology (fourth edition) 192-195. academic press. 1997. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.386 22 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.450 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae comparative study on profitability of sorghum-legumes intercropping systems in ethiopia dessalegn ayana deressa* assosa university, department of plant science, college of agriculture and natural resources, assosa, ethiopia article info abstract article history received: 10 september 2021 accepted: 27 september 2021 published online: 30 september 2021 the imbalance between the crop production and population growth is currently the major issue in ethiopia. to feed the growing population, increasing the production of food through growing more crop types in the same field as an intercropping is the right strategy. the study was aimed at evaluating the profitability of sorghum-legume intercropping on yield of sorghum. intercropping sorghum with legumes crops increases the land productivity as its land equivalent ratio is greater than one. in these cases, the land equivalent ratio is greater than one indicating the benefits of intercropping. in general, legume crops contributed to the yield of sorghum either intercropped with legume or grown up using residual contribution of legumes after a year. therefore, for maximum sorghum production, farmers should plant either as intercrop or after residual effect of legumes crops. in addition to agronomic parameters used to compare the advantages of any cropping system in small scale farming conditions, total gross monetary value is also used to evaluate economic advantages of intercropping system. keywords: intercropping sorghum legumes ler monetary value index 1. introduction intercropping is one of the commonly used cropping practices in most tropical areas in africa. it is the growing of two or more crop species simultaneously in the same land during the growing season (lithourgidis et al., 2011). shortage of the farm land due to population pressure forced to explore new ways to intensify production and productivity per unit area of land (usmanikhail et al., 2012). nasri et al. (2014) stated that the benefit of intercropping over sole cropping in terms of production per unit area. it is an attractive strategy to increase the productivity and land use efficiency (seran and brintha, 2010). cereal-legume intercropping is the most commonly used practice by smallholder farmers in developing countries because of its environmental as well as economic advantages (willey, 1979). it is also important for better use of resources, improvement of soil fertility, soil conservation and reduction of risks and suppression of weed infestation (emam, 2003). however, the advantage of intercropping is obtained when correspondent species has differences in crop architecture, maturity time, nutrient use to optimize the use of natural resources and environmental factors when cropped together (nurbakhsh et al., 2013). intercropping has an advantage and often provides higher economic benefit than mono cropping (amanullah et al., 2006). intercropping productivity and economic benefit was determined by using different evaluating indices. land equivalent ratio (ler) and monitory advantage index (mai) are the commonly used indices adopted in intercropping to evaluate intercropping advantages. ler is an indicator to determine the efficiency of intercropping (kurata, 1986). the value of ler greater than one indicates that the greater efficiency of land utilization in *corresponding author: dessalegn ayana deressa, assosa university, department of plant science, college of agriculture and natural resources, assosa, ethiopia; email: ayanadessalegn074@gmail.com 23 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 intercropping due to greater efficiency of resource utilization in intercropping (seran and brintha, 2010). in general, in designing alternative crop systems, the common approaches to be followed are crop intensification, crop diversification and cultivar options. however, the three approaches become inseparable and considered as a building block of a new system (yadav et al., 1998). the main objective of intercropping has been to maximize use of resources, such as space, light and nutrients as well as to improve forage quality and quantity. most researchers believe that intercropping system is especially beneficial to the smallholder farmers in the low-input and high-risk environments of the tropics (rana et al., 2001). the principal reasons for smallholder farmers to intercrop are flexibility, profit maximization, risk minimization against total crop failure, soil conservation and improvement of soil fertility, weed management and balanced nutrition (shetty et al., 1995). therefore, the objective of this paper is to review research findings and to compare and contrasting for putting future research direction in sorghum-legumes intercropping system profitability in ethiopia. 2. sorghum-legumes intercropping for profitability 2.1 intercrop of sorghum with pigeon pea and cow pea the study is conducted in yeki district of sheka zone in southern nations nationalities and peoples region. intercropping sorghum with pigeon pea and cow pea resulted in a significant greater unit. for sorghum/ pigeon pea and for sorghum/ cow pea have 0.9 and 1.25 ler values respectively. ler greater than one is considered to be more efficient systems from a land use point of view than mono crops (willey, 1979). similarly musambasi et al. (2001) reported that intercropping maize with different legumes at different locations resulted in greater ler for maize. this indicates that intercropping of sorghum with these legume crops gave advantageous yield than planting them in mono crop table 1. table 1. first year land equivalent ratio for the effect of intercropping sorghum with legume treatments grain yield(kgh-1) (ler) sole sorghum 3979.62 sole pigeon pea 574.06 sole cow pigeon pea 909.71 sorghum intercropped with pigeon pea 1592.59 sorghum intercropped with cow pea 1879.62 pigeon pea intercropped with sorghum 135.18 0.9 cow pea intercropped with sorghum 430.55 1.25 source: (gebremichael et al., 2019) 2.2 the long term effect of intercropping on yield and yield component of sorghum the intercropping of legume on cereals particularly sorghum may accrue some selected nutrients particularly, nitrogen to the soil which in turns to improve the soil fertility to benefit the subsequent crops. in the first year, all combination of sorghum with leguminous shrubs was evaluated at farm level. next year, considering the advantage of leguminous shrubs to soil fertility, only sorghum as a test crop was evaluated with respect to yield and yield components after planting in the plot of pigeon pea, cowpea and under intercropped condition with legume. according to carsky et al. (2001), cereal yield is usually higher after a legume crop than after a cereal crop. the table 2 depicted that 74.0% sorghum yield change was observed when planted under intercropped condition of sorghum with pigeon pea. it also observed that, planting sorghum under sorghum-cowpea intercropped condition maximize the yield of sorghum by 41.8%. however, the yield of sorghum planted under sole condition is decreased from 2379 kg ha-1 to 1995 kg ha-1. table 2. the long term effect of intercropping sorghum-leguminous on yield and yield component of sorghum treatments plant height (cm) grain yield ( kgha-1) plot of sole sorghum 226.2 1995c plot of sole pigeon pea 259.2 2885a plot of sole cow pea 228.4 255ab plot of sorghum intercropped with pigeon pea 227.6 2770a plot of sorghum intercropped with cow pea 228.3 2665ab mean 233.94 2573 cv (%) 17.62 30.36 lsd (0.005) 95.08 1800 source: (gebremichael et al., 2019) the study of pal and sheshu (2001) reported the direct and residual contribution of legumes to the yield and n up take of maize and found that all the legume crops contributed to the yield of maize. generally, using pigeon pea in rotational system is more profitable than using intercropping sorghum with cow pea. 2.3 intercrop of sorghum with soybean and groundnut for striga weed control in traditional african cropping, prolonged fallow, crop rotation and intercropping were the common practices that doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.450 24 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 kept striga infestation in tolerable level. this parasitic weed cause estimated yield losses that range from 40 to 100% when the infestation is very serious, especially in northern, north western and western parts of the ethiopia where sorghum cropping is the most suitable choice for farmers (kidane, 2014). the intercrop of sorghum with soybean and groundnut study is conducted on selected farmer’s fields where striga infestations have been relatively higher at all cropping season. therefore, intercropping of sorghum with soybean and groundnut research is used to control striga from sorghum field table 3. both soybean and groundnut planted as pure stands recorded greater yield of (1190.1 kg/ha and 1115.3 kg/ha respectively) than that produced from intercropped with sorghum (table 3). the higher yield of sole soybean and groundnut could be attributed to the least competition in pure stands. in other intercropping research finding ljoyah (2014) concluded that higher yield of soybean form sole cropping than that produced from intercropped soybean due to the shading effect of maize over soybean. among the different intercrops higher grian yield was recorded by soybean (1123.2 kg/ha) when intercropped with sorghum in simultaneous single alternate row arrangements, followed by relay croppings of sorghum-soybean. grain yield of groundnut was recorded relatively lower in intercropping with sorghum due to severe competition for growth resources. 2.4 yield advantages of the intercropping one of the main objectives of intercropping is increasing productivity per unit area. the productivity and benefit of the maize-common bean intercropping were evaluated by using land equivalent ratio (ler) and monitory advantage index (mai), respectively. land equivalent ratio (ler) is used for estimating advantages or disadvantages of intercropping over sole cropping system (dhima et al., 2007). based on the result, the intercropping treatments had higher ler than monoculture, which indicated the superiority of intercropping over sole cropping. gross monetary value (gmv) was determined to evaluate the economic advantage of intercropping system as compared to sole cropping (willey, 1979). gmv was computed from the yield of sorghum, and soybean and cowpea component crops by multiplying the yields with their respective unit price. the total values obtained from the component crops were used to indicate the gross monetary value. according to kinde et al.(2015), report to estimate the gmv of component crops, sorghum grain yield is valued at an average open market price of 7.00 etb kg-1, soybean and cowpea each at 4 etb kg-1 at the time of crop harvest in daro labu district, west hararghe. 3. conclusion the most important strategy to increase agricultural output is the development of intercropping system, which is tolerant to biotic and abiotic stresses. sorghum grain yield is significantly affected due to effect legumes-sorghum cropping system. under these scenarios intercropping gave high yield advantage over sole cropping. intercropping sorghum with legumes provides significant seasonal control of striga and enhanced grain yields. the general plant community interaction has no parallel interaction for sorghum-legume intercropping systems but table 3. yield of sorghum, soybean and groundnut and land equivalent ratio (ler) as influenced by cropping system and row striga population in 2014 & 2015 treatments grain yield (kgh-1) (ler) number of striga per m2 in 2014 number of striga per m2 in 2015 sole sorghum 1481.2 8.00a 7.97a sole soya bean 1190.1 7.73a 6.37ab sole groundnut 1115.3 7.90a 6.10ab sorghum intercropped with soybean 1307.9 0.88 7.82a 4.57b sorghum intercropped with groundnut 1766 1.2 7.33a 6.37ab soybean intercropped with sorghum 1123.2 1.8 groundnut intercropped with sorghum 1010.4 2.1 lsd(0.005) ns 2.55 source: (fitsum et al., 2016) doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.450 25 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 some legumessorghum have synergetic interaction in the pattern and most of the legume crops are interact as companion effect on the sorghum crop yield. 4. future line of work the following points are future direction of work in the area: i. the research studies are should focus in different environments to assess the performance of the legumes in a range of soil types, weeds species and moisture stress. ii. introduce farmers in order to get huge monetary benefits along with better quality production by using intercropping legume with sorghum. the result of some study showed that farmers would earn more income from intercropping crops than growing crops in sole cropping. iii. generally, intercropping is also used as an additional option to farmers to increase land use efficiency. references [1] lithourgidis, a.s., vlachostergios, d.n., dordas, c.a. and damalas, c.a. 2011. dry matter yield, nitrogen content, and competition in pea–cereal intercropping systems. european j. agron. 34(4): 287294. [2] yadav, r.l., prasad, k. and dwivedi, b.s. (1998). cropping systems research. pp. 193-213. in: r.l yadav, p. singh, and r. prasad and i.p.s. ahlawat (eds.). fifty years of agronomic research in india. indian society of agronomy, new delhi, india. [3] usmanikhail, m.u., tunio, s.d., jamro, g.h., oad, f.c., hassan, s.w., chachar, q.d., khanzada, m.a. and gandahi, a.w. 2012. agronomic and economic effect of intercropping sugar beet with oilseeds and lentil. pak. j. bot. 44(6): 1983-1988. [4] nasri, r., kashani, a., barary, m., paknejad, f. and vazan, s. 2014. nitrogen uptake and utilization efficiency and the productivity of wheat in double cropping system under different rates of nitrogen. int. j. biosci. 4: 184-193. [5] seran, t.h. and brintha, i. 2010. review of maize based intercropping. j. agron. 9(3): 135-145. willey, r. 1979. intercropping-its importance and research needs: part 1. competition and yield advantages. in: field crop abstracts. 32: 1-10. [6] emam, y. 2003. cereal production, tehran university press, iran. 188p. nurbakhsh, f., koocheki, a. and mahallati, m.n. 2013. evaluation of yield, yield components and different intercropping indices in mixed and row intercropping of sesame (sesamum indicum l.) and bean (phaseolus vulgaris l.). int. j. agric. crop sci. 5(17): 1958-1965. [7] amanullah, m.m., vaiyapuri, k., alagesan, a., somasundaram, e., sathyamoorthi, k. and pazhanivelan, s. 2006. effect of intercropping and organic manures on the yield and biological efficiency of cassava intercropping system (manihot esculenta crantz.). res. j. agric. biol. sci. 2(5): 201-208. [8] kurata, t. 1986. a study on the farming system in ussa. quert. j. agro. eco. 26: 179-205. [9] kinde lamessa, sharma j.j and taye tessema.2015. influence of cowpea and soybean intercropping pattern and time of planting on yield and gross monetary value of sorghum, journal of sci. technol. arts res. j., july-sep 2015, 4(3): 38-46. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.450 12 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae research achievements in relation to maize (zea mays l) crop production and productivity in ethiopia: a systematic review dessalegn ayana* department of plant science, college of agriculture and natural resources, assosa university, assosa, ethiopia article info abstract article history received: 17 june 2021 accepted: 15 july 2021 published online: 31 july 2021 despite the conducting much number of maize researches in different centers a little change on production and productivity in ethiopia. hence this review aimed to indicate how a maize production and productivity have been developed and used to inform that food security concern body of the country. i researched for different papers reporting maize production achievements, databases of peer review journal articles, scholar google and other web sites. a total of 70 papers were reviewed from which 20 papers are included and from this 51.2% describe about maize production, 34.6% describe about productivity of a crop per area and 14.2% describe about deficiency of agricultural input utilization by local farmers. the use of new crop variety and artificial fertilizers is relatively a wide spread throughout the country. however, practical application on small holder’s field has less technical support and comparatively traditional way of crop managements have been involved. most of the research findings, particularly those from agronomic practices, indicated that maize has wide flexibility that is suitable for production. keywords: research achievements maize production and productivity 1. introduction maize (zea mays l.) is one of the most important cereal crops in the world. it ranks third position among other cereals after wheat and rice [1]. according to faostat [2], 690.7million tons of maize was produced on 135.4 million hectares world widely, with a yield of over 5.1 tons per hectare in the year 2012/2013. maize is also important cereal crop in eastern and southern africa that accounts for over 29 % of the total harvested area of annual food crops and 25 % of total caloric consumption. maize is the second most widely cultivated crop in ethiopia [3]. in most of the regions of ethiopia, soils are deficient in phosphorus (p) and nitrogen (n). in some place of western ethiopia, adverse soil acid prevails, and frequently combination of the limit crop production. the situation has been further aggravated by the long history of cultivation without any p and n replenishment, which led to low soil fertility and result in low crop yield. weed infestation is the other constraints of maize production in ethiopia that are responsible for low maize grain yield. worldwide maize production is hampered up to 40 % by competition from weeds which are the most important pest group of this crop [4]. generally, weeds reduce crop yield by competing for light, nutrient, water, and carbon dioxides as well as interfering with harvesting and increasing the cost involved in production. overall weeds impose the highest loss potential (37 %) which is higher than the loss potential due to animal pest (18 %) [5]. a review was carried out on maize crop production and productivity. moreover, agronomic research such as fertilizer rate and time of application, plant population density and weed management of maize *corresponding author: dessalegn ayana, department of plant science, college of agriculture and natural resources, assosa university, assosa, ethiopia; email: ayanadessalegn074@gmail.com doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.423 13 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 production comprises the major components of the agronomic research undertaken by different research centers to improve production and productivity of maize in the country. the objective of this paper is to review research findings and to identify the gaps, and putting future research direction in relation to improving cultural practices for production of maize in ethiopia. 2. methods this review followed reporting of central statistical agency (csa), and faostat data bases are taken as bench mark. the papers were extracted into a data extraction system. this include information about author, publication date, the type of intervention and out comes in relation to research achievements of maize crop, and the use of research design, implementation and evaluation of the intervention and the influence of context of the research study in ethiopia. following the search of databases of peer-reviewed journal articles, the title, and abstract of the search result from peer-reviewed papers and relevant portions were reviewed. the peer-reviewed journal articles, titles, and abstracts are screened for the inclusion or exclusion purposes. the papers were compared, evaluated, and summarized narratively in relation to review. due to the heterogeneity of the study design, implementations, and outcomes detail analysis was not conducted in this review. 3. results and discussions a total of 70 papers were reviewed from which 20 papers are included and from this 51.2% describe about maize production, 34.6% describe about productivity of a crop per area and 14.2% describe about deficiency of agricultural input utilization by local farmers. 3.1 research achievements in ethiopia maize research in ethiopia has gone through a number of changes over the last several years, which marked critical period in terms of driving the current changes in production and productivity. some of the key events that warrant specific methods include the 1984 major drought and famine that helped to increase the profile of maize in attaining national food security. the introduction of national developed hybrids adapted the local production condition in the late 1980s and early 1990s and the introduction of an integrated system approached for research and development by the ethiopian institute of agricultural research in the early 2000s [6]. it is interesting to see that the gradual increases in maize production in ethiopia resulted more from increases in productivity rather than area expansion figure 1. figure 1. the lines y1 axis) represent area and whereas the yield represent (y2-axis) is represent by the bar according to figure 1 the increase in population growth supports the competitiveness of maize crop and area of production in ethiopia also increases during increase in time. this increase in area come mainly from two sources. first, the traditionally sorghum growing smallholder farmers in the rift valley of ethiopia shifted to maize, and the second maize area increase was the adoption of maize by the traditionally tef growing farmers in northern central area of ethiopia particularly in west gojjam, north gondar, and others. 3.2 tillage and fertilizer management according to asresie report for reduced tillage practices, the soil should be distributed only to place the seed and fertilizer in the soil at the time of sowing the seed by using row method of planting [7]. thus, land preparation to suppress weed infestation is not a concern rather it is disturbed only to place the seed and fertilizer. according to the variability of the size and the farming system of the different regions of ethiopia, different regions have different consumption trends. of all the region four administration regions (oromia, amhara, snnp, and tigray) consumed on average more than 94.80 % of fertilizer in ethiopia. from the four regions again, consumption is in the order of oromia >amhara > snnp > tigray and the percentage share of these regions is 36.6%, 35.8%, 15.5% and 6.9 % respectively. based on csa data for 2004 to 2013 it was estimated that about fertilizer in ethiopia are marketed as dap (di-ammonium-phosphate) and urea. potassium fertilizers are not considered to be important in ethiopian agriculture, as there is apperception that ethiopian soils are not deficient in potassium element. the following figure shows that, on average dap accounts for about 64 % of the total volume of fertilizer used with urea accounting for about remaining 36 %. they converted the two products into n and p equivalent and doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.423 14 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 report here the total n and p consumptions, the area fertilized and application rates. therefore, the ratio of dap to urea is not the recommendable ratio 2:1 for increasing of maize production. figure 2. the overall nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer consumption by maize in ethiopia between 2004 and 2013 source: [8] the above data shows that dap are being gradually substituted by nps in the recent years to meet the sulfur demand of most of ethiopian soils. figure 3. fertilizer use in ethivopia recent time [9]. 3.3 plant population and spacing plant density is one of the most important cultural practices determining grain yield, as well as other important agronomic contributes of the crop. plant density affects plant architecture, alters growth and developmental patterns and influences carbohydrate production and partitioning [10]. maize is more sensitive to variation in plant density than other members of the grass family [11]. at low densities, many modern maize hybrids do not tillers effectively and quite often produce only one ear per plant. therefore, maize does not share the traits of most tiller grasses of compensating for low leaf area and small number of productive unit by branching [12]. on the other hand, the use of high population heightens interplant competition for light, water, and nutrients. this may be detrimental for final yield, because it stimulates apical dominance, induces barrenness, and ultimately decreases the number of ears produced per plant and kernels set per ear [13]. the spacing between stands per hectare, in turn, determines the numbers of plants per stands per hectare [14]. the number of stands per hectare, and the number of plants per stand together determine the number of plants per hectare, or the plant density. a number of factors also influence plant density: fertility status of the soil, moisture supply, growth pattern of the crop and cultural practices [15]. anoma [16] reported that there was significant (p<0.05) main effect of varieties and plant density, the maize gave the highest grain yield (9.9 t ha-1) at plant density of 61,538 plants per hectare table 1. table 1. main effect of variety and plant density on above ground dry biomass, grain yield and harvest index of maize treatment bm (kgha-1) gy(kgha-1) hi (%) maize varieties bh-540 24331.1b 8993.7a 37.33a bh-140 24324.8b 8736.7a 37.33a bh qpy -545 27166.9a 8052.2b 30b lsd(0.05) 1957.1 584.94 2.86 plant density (ha-1) 72727 (55cmx25cm) 28238a 8596.8bc 30.69d 61538 (65cmx25cm) 28495 a 9921.8a 35.52ab 60606 (55cmx30cm) 26313ab 9192.2ab 36.18a 53333 (75cmx25cm) 24272bc 8674bc 35.49ab 51282 (65cmx30cm) 23138dc 7882.8cd 34.33cd 44444 (75cmx30cm) 21190d 7297.7d 34.79cd lsd(0.05) 2767.7 827.23 ns cv (%) 11.4 10.05 12.25 means in column within a parameter followed by the same letters are not significantly different at 5 % level of significance, bm= biomass, gy =grain yield,hi= harvest index lds (0.05) = least significant difference at 5 % level; cv=coefficient of variation and ns= nonsignificant. 3.4 maize achievement in cropping systems with other crops the achievements of maize grain yield in 1999 and continuous maize and rotational crops in 2000 and 2002 cropping season are shown in table 2 [17]. therefore, maize following niger seed produced mean grain yield advantage of 971 and 1527 kg ha-1compared to haricot bean and tef. all crop rotations produced greater yield advantage of maize compared to continuous maize. the finding was indicated that maize grain yield in 1999 and continuous maize with rotational crops in 2000 and 2002 cropping season shown variation in yield of maize. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.423 15 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 maize leaf removal below the ear improved tef grain yield without reducing the maize grain yield significantly [18]. it was realized that in maize-tef association, maize has a deeper root system than tef which allows for exploitation of soil nutrients and moisture at different soil layer. it was realized that in maize-tef association, maize has a deeper root system than tef which allows for exploitation of soil nutrient and moisture at different soil layers [19]. in this study it was observed that the optional level of compatible crops depend on different factors such as variety, location, and weed population. 3.5 weed management in maize according to the finding of [20] the maximum hundred seed weight was recorded on combination of hand weeding and hoeing and the minimum was recorded on weedy check both at gudar and ambo sites. moreover, the highest grain yield was obtained from hand weeding plus hoeing and followed by plot treated with nicosulfuron at both study sites. while the lowest grain yield was scored on weedy check. however, the data were similar approach in both sites on grain yield. table 2. mean grain yield of maize in 1999 and rotational crops (2000 and 2002) and continuous maize from 2000 to 2002 of grain yield across cropping seasons. yield (kg ha-1) maize 1999 (kg ha-1) rotation crops 2000 2001 2002 4870 niger seed 742 734 4708 niger seed 749 664 6070 haricot bean 1436 1810 5738 haricot bean 1422 1897 4697 tef 356 396 4515 tef 392 464 5567 continuous maize 8270 5544 2957 table 3. average land equivalent ratio (ler) for maize-tef relay intercropping with planting pattern and leaf removals at hawasa, ethiopia. leaf removal planting pattern l1 (no of leaf removal) l2 (no of leaf removal below ear) l3(no of leaf removal near to the ear mean broadcast 1.23 1.3 1.33 1.29 60x37.5cm 1.2 1.3 1.35 1.28 75x30cm 1.32 1.48 1.51 1.44 100x22cm 1.34 1.5 1.5 1.45 mean 1.26 14 1.42 1.36 table 4. effect of various herbicides on 100 seed weight (g) grain yield (kgha-1) and relative yield loss % gudar ambo treatments hsw(g) gy(kgha-1) ryl (%) hsw(g) gy(kgha-1) ryl (%) nicosulfuron 41.53a 6883.3a 4.74cd 44.67b 6883.3ab 6.31d s-metolachlor 42.633a 5026.4b 30.15b 41.17c 5026.4c 29.37b primagram 42.833a 6259.2a 14.52c 41.30c 6129.2b 11.80c hand weeding +hoeing 45.33a 6989.8a 0.00cd 49.67a 7223.1a 0.00d weed check 33.80b 2312.4c 63.65a 29.80d 2612.4d 75.71a lsd(0.05) 5.19 921.28 9.79 3.29 812.36 5.32 cv (%) 6.68 8.84 23.01 4.24 7.73 11.47 hsw=hundred seed weight, gy= grain yield, ryl= relative yield loss, lsd= least significant difference, cv= coefficient of variance, means within a column followed by the same letter are not significantly different at 0.05 probability level using fisher’s protected lds test. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.423 16 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 4. conclusions as it has been already discussed agronomic practices, such as plant density are known to affect crop environment, which directly influence grain yield. optimum population level should be maintained to exploit maximum natural resources including soil nutrients, sunlight, and soil moistures to ensure satisfactory yield. to overcome this resource using different intercropping systems were found to be more economically advantageous than sole cropping as the maize grower could get additional yield. it was also reviewed that, fertilizer supplement on maize specially nitrogen and phosphorus is significantly affect grain yield. not only fertilizer use impose maize grain yield but also weeds management in the fields of maize is very essential for obtaining tangible yield. 5. future line of work the future direction of maize production is based on soil fertility status and crop responses. in addition to this, concerned body has given more emphasis on the development of maize production to reduce poverty. the production of maize is mainly handled by small-scale farmers. consequently, its farming techniques, agronomical practices, harvesting and processing technologies have followed local and traditional knowledge. in this regard, it has still required effort, time, and resources in disseminating the appropriate skill, technologies, and knowledge, for better maize production and productivity. references [1] faostat, 2010. food and agriculture organization statistical database: http// faostat.fao.org. accessed on september 10/2017. [2] faostat, 2013. food and agriculture organization statistical database: http// faostat.fao.org. [3] moa. (2005). new agro-ecological zones of ethiopia. addis ababa: ministry of agriculture. [4] chikoye d, schulz s, ekeleme f (2004) evaluation of integrated weed management practices for maize in the northern guinea savanna of nigeria. crop protection 23: 895-900. [5] chikoye d, udensi ue, fontem a, lum (2005) evaluation of a new formulation of atrazine and metolachlor mixture for weed control in maize in nigeria. crop protection 24:1016-1020. [6] abate, t. (2007). focusing agricultural research to address development needs: direction for agricultural research in ethiopia. addis ababa: eiar. [7] asresie hassen, molla tafere, mekonen tolla, abel ahmed, seferew dagnew, yihenew g.selassie, desallegn molla and alemu worku .2015. best fit practice on reduced tillage for maize production bdu-cascape technical working paper no 9. [8] central statistical agency (csa). 2013. area and production of major crops. agricultural sample survey2012/13, private, peasant holdings, meher season, statistical bulletin 532, addis ababa, ethiopia. [9] central statistics agency (csa). 2014.agricultural sample survey report onprivate peasant holdings, meher season 2013/20014 volume i, addis abeba, ethiopia. [10] casal, j.j., deregibus, v.a.and sánchez, r.a., 1985. variations in tiller dynamics and morphology in lolium multiflorum lam. vegetative and reproductive plants as affected by differences in red/far-red irradiation. annals of botany, 56:533-559. [11] vega, c. r. c., andrade, f. h. and sadras, v. o. 2001. reproductive partitioning and seed set efficiency in soybean, sunflower and maize. field crop research, 72: 165-173. [12] gardner, f.p., pearce, r.b. and mitchell, r.l., 1985. physiology of crop plants. ames iowa state university. [13] sangoi, l. and salvador, r.j. 1998. influence of plant height and leaf number on maize production at high plant densities. pesquisa agropecuária brasileira, 33:3, pp.297-306. [14] onwueme, i. c. and sinha, t. d. 1991. field crops production in tropical africa. technical center for agricultural and rural co-operation (cta), the netherlands. pp.159-170. [15] gonzalo m., t.j. vyn, j.b. holland and l.m. mcintre. 2006. mapping density response in maize : a direct approach for testing genotype and treatment interactions. genetics, 173 (1):331-348. [16] amona tolka 2014 effect of varieties and plant density on yield and yield components of maize (zea mays l.) in ofa district, gesuba, southern ethiopia, msc. thesis haramaya universsity, haramaya ethiopia. [17] tolera abera1, daba feyisa, and d. k. friesen (2009) effects of crop rotation and n-p fertilizer rate on grain yield and related characteristics of maize and soil fertility at bako, western oromia, ethiopia, east african journal of sciences 3 (1) pp 70-79. [18] walelign worku. 2004. maize-tef relay intercropping as affected by maize planting pattern and leaf removal in southern ethiopia. african crop science journal. 12(4):358 367. [19] wondimu bayu, molla addisu, besufekad tadesse and legesse admassu, 2007. intercropping tef and sunflower in semi-arid areas of wello, ethiopia. trop. sci., 47(1): 16-21. [20] tesfay a, amin m, mulugeta n (2014) management of weeds in maize (zea maysl.) through various pre and post emergency herbicides. adv crop sci tech 2: 151. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.423 36 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://journals.nasspublishing.com/index.php/rwae copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). 1. introduction the u.s. cheese sector has been steadily growing since the 1990s and has become among the most important commodities in the u.s. dairy agricultural economy. u.s. consumers are consuming twice as much cheese per capita as they did in 1980 [1]. moreover, annual cheese production in the u.s. has been steadily growing from 6.94 billion lbs. in 1995 [2] to 13.1 billion lbs. in 2019 [3]; with doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.870 received: 1 june 2023; received in revised form: 8 july 2023; accepted: 13 july 2023; published: 20 july 2023 citation: wang, z., tejeda, h., kim, m.k., et al., 2023. cheese price softening in the u.s.: determining effects from excessive cheese in the market. research on world agricultural economy. 4(3), 870. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/ rwae.v4i3.870 *corresponding author: man-keun kim, department of applied economics, utah state university, logan, utah, 84321, united states; email: mk.kim@usu.edu research article cheese price softening in the u.s.: determining effects from excessive cheese in the market zuyi wang1 hernan tejeda2 man-keun kim1* wai yan siu3 1. department of applied economics, utah state university, logan, utah, 84321, united states 2. department of agricultural economics and rural sociology, twin falls research and extension center, twin falls, university of idaho, idaho, 83844, united states 3. haub school of environment and natural resources, university of wyoming, laramie, wy 82072, united states abstract: the united states (u.s.) cheese sector has experienced continuous production and consumption growth since the 1990’s with its market characterized as having oligopolistic behavior, signaling that prices respond to supply. despite the steady industry growth, it experienced a recent multi-year period of declining prices. this paper addresses how growth towards an all-time record surplus of cheese, in response to excess milk production and export drops, weakened u.s. cheese prices. this study finds there is a significant short-run effect on price from overly expanded cheese supply, i.e., specifically taking a 2019 monthly average supply of 2.48 billion pounds, a 10% rise in cheese supply results in an immediate price decrease of 8.7%, translating to an average decline of usd 0.15/pound. the cumulative effect on its price from this 10% change results in a cumulative drop in cheese prices of 18.9%, approximately equal to a decrease of usd 0.34/pound. findings provide relevant information to cheese, dairy producers and stakeholders, for milk production schedules, risk management and dairy policy analysis. keywords: autoregressive distributed lag model; cheese prices; price softening; supply growth http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.870 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.870 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.870 mailto:mk.kim@usu.edu https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6796-5307 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0205-9618 37 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 supply growth increasing more rapidly in the recent period from 2015 to early 2019 versus the previous five years, i.e. 4.3% annum versus 2.2% annum, respectively. despite the consumption growth, u.s. cheese markets experienced a steady decline in prices between 2015 and early 2019a. industry analysts have described the drop in cheese prices as the result from an abundance in the supply of cheese, accompanied by increases in imports and drops in exports. this paper seeks to quantify market effects from an overly abundant growth in cheese supply that weakened its prices, and in turn, affect milk production prices due to milk production pricing mechanisms [4]. the findings of this study enhance our understanding of the relationship between cheese price and its supply, derived from (perishable) milk production, with significant implications for risk management, investment decisions, and potential policy analysis. as a result, agribusiness sectors and supply chain actors involved in cheese markets stand to benefit from this research paper, as it quantifies the impact of excessive growth of cheese supply in the market on both short-run and long-run prices. moreover, these insights may provide valuable information for strategic decision-making within the cheese industry. studying the price of cheese holds significant importance, primarily due to the dairy sector’s prominent role as the main agricultural industry in several u.s. states, including california, wisconsin, new york, idaho, michigan, and new mexico, among others. many of these states are also major cheese producers. in 2021, more than 42% of us milk fat was used for cheese production [5], and the daily consumption of cheese per person increased to 0.74 cup-equivalents (1 cup-equivalent = 1 cup milk) in 2021 from 0.36 cup-equivalents per person in 1981 [6]. moreover, cheese exports have witnessed growth in recent years, with increased shipments to countries such as mexico, the middle east, japan, central america, the caribbean, korea, australia, and colombia in 2022. hence, as previously mentioned, quantifying the impact of unprecedented growth in cheese supply may assist in providing valuable information for strategic decision-making within the cheese industry. from u.s. department of agriculture (usda) data, the amount of cheese surplus (beginning stock) in the u.s. grew from about 1 to 1.4 billion pounds between 2016 and 2019 [5], reaching record numbers, as shown in panel a ( highlighted within the blue oval) in figure 1. the substantial increase in cheese storage began around 2008 in response to milk production exceeding its rates of use/consumption, and driving the milk surplus to produce a this study does not include price shifts during subsequent period of covid-19 which is under a different study. cheese [7].b cheese exports have constituted an average of 5.6% of yearly production since 2010. however recently, china and mexico imposed retaliatory tariffs on u.s. dairy exports in the summer of 2018 as a consequence of a trade war; which resulted in annual cheese shipments dropping by 63% and 10% to china and mexico; respectively [9]. between 2010 and 2019 u.s. milk production increased by a total of 13.3% [3], and cheese production grew as well, but at a higher rate of 29.8% (3.3% per annum)—as observed in panel b in figure 1. total cheese supply (sum of stocks, production, and imports) has likewise steadily increased, as shown in panel c figure 1, even more in the period 2016 to 2019 (blue oval) as mentioned previously. it is important to note that in 2019, cheese supply growth decreased dramatically as seen in panel a and panel c (gold oval). the increased supply over time has had a notable impact on cheese prices, particularly during the period from 2015 to 2018 as depicted within the blue oval in figure 2. however, in 2019, cheese prices increased and inventory remained rather steady given the minor cheese production increase of 0.8%, in comparison to 3.1% and 3.8% of the previous two years (figure 2, yellow oval)c accompanied by a rise in cheese exports of about 3%. as aforementioned, lower cheese prices also affected dairy producers’ milk prices regulated through federal milk marketing orders (fmmos), which govern about 75% of the us milk supply [11,12]. the price of cheese plummeted again in the spring of 2020 as the covid-19 pandemic hit the u.s. (not shown in figure 2). covid-19 produced a significant and unexpected shift in cheese demand since a large portion of cheese consumption occurs through restaurants and school cafeterias, and these shut down during the 2nd quarter of 2020 [13]. at the same time, cheese consumption grew in family household cooking settings, though at a lower rate. the shift in consumption outlets as a consequence of the pandemic had varying effects on different agents along the dairy supply chain, as described by wolf et al. [14]. cheese prices may be sensitive to supply due to the oligopolistic behavior observed in the structure of the u.s. cheese market, as supported by previous studies by mueller and marion [15], arnade et al. [16], and bolotova and novakovic [4]. that is in the classical oligopolistic market model, e.g., the cournot model, market prices tend to be a function of supply [17]. the empirical strategy employed b milk surplus (oversupply) is noted by average milk production costs being lower than prices; i.e. below perfect competition equilibrium levels [7]. c in 2019, there was a significant slowdown in year-over-year milk production growth [10]. 38 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 in this study is grounded in this theoretical foundation. to provide an intuitive representation of the oligopolistic market structure figure 3 is presented. in this illustration, the horizontal axis represents the quantity of cheese, q, and the vertical axis represents the cheese price, p. each point in figure 3 indicates an equilibrium where supply (s) and demand (d) curves intersect at a specific period in time. over time, demand and supply curves shift up or down based on supply and demand shifters; for example, milk production affects cheese supply curves and household income influences the cheese demand curves. as a result, multiple supply-demand equilibrium points exist, reflecting different supply-demand interactions over time. the fitted line connecting these equilibrium points represents the long-run relationship (lr) depicted in figure 3 represents, denoted as p = f (q). panel a in figure 3 demonstrates a negative long-run relationship between price and quantity, while panel b shows a positive relationship. this long-run relationship depends on how supply and demand shift over time. for the period in this study, the growth in cheese supply has outpaced changes in demand, resulting in a negative long-run relationship referred to as “price softening”. the theoretical underpinnings and graphical representation provided in figure 3 help to understand the relationship between cheese price and supply within the context of an oligopolistic market structure. market analysts interviewed by financial press suggest that the surge of inventory has depressed prices, despite recent increases in cheese consumption [18]. the hypothesis for this study is taken from these previous assertions, with the primary objective of estimating the market impact from an overly abundance of cheese supply affecting its market price, including the long-run price effect. to date, there has been a research gap in examining the short and long-term implications on cheese price and its variability resulting from the excessive growth of cheese supply. persistent declines in cheese prices may adversely affect cheese and dairy industry players in the long run, potentially bringing about more industry consolidation [19]. to address this matter, and assume an oligopolistic market figure 1. cheese storage, production, and supply. source: monthly cheese beginning stock (panel a), production (panel b) and supply (panel c ) from usda-ers [5]. note that supply in panel c is the sum of beginning stock, production, and import (not shown here). figure 2. cheese prices. source: monthly average market prices for cheddar cheese from usda-ams (usda, ams, 2020b). 39 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 structure, this study employs an autoregressive distributed lag model (ardl) to estimate price as a function of supply. taking 2019 as a reference year, empirical results indicate that a 1% increase in cheese supply (equivalent to approximately 24.9 million pounds/month) immediately leads to a 0.87% decrease in cheese prices (approximately 1.5 cents/pound). moreover, this 1% surge in cheese supply resulted in a 1.89% decrease in prices (roughly 3.4 cents/pound) after a period of six to seven months. the theoretical implications of this study can be summarized in two key aspects. firstly, by examining the relationship between cheese supply and prices within an oligopolistic market structure, this study significantly contributes to the theoretical understanding of market dynamics within the cheese industry. as previously mentioned, it shed light on the intricacies of pricing mechanisms and the influence of supply on market outcomes. this analysis augments knowledge of how market forces operate in this specific industry context. secondly, the findings of this study hold practical significance for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and market participants. the insights gained regarding the impact of cheese oversupply on prices can serve as valuable guidance for better decision-making processes related to supply management, risk mitigation, and investment strategies. by providing empirical evidence and an increased understanding of the dynamics at play, this study supports the formulation of effective policies and aids in informed strategic decisionmaking within the cheese industry. the remainder of this study is organized as follows. the next section reviews prior studies that have researched the u.s. cheese market. section 3 introduces data and examines the (estimated) ardl model and its pertinence. results, discussions, and implication remarks follow in sections 4 and 5. 2. literature review numerous studies investigating the u.s. cheese sector have addressed matters of cheese markets. recently bolotova [20] investigated the spot cheese market and its behavior along different periods of fmmos finding that this relation has intensified over the years, with increasing effects on price volatility. tejeda and kim [21] investigated price dynamics among different cheese varieties finding periods where prices of american and other cheese types were decoupled. studies addressing cheese market structure and its oligopolistic nature include mueller and marion [15] who examined the trade behavior of leading cheese companies on the national cheese exchange, which despite trading less than 0.2% of all cheese sold in the u.s. provided market signals for formula-pricing of 90-95% of all bulk cheese, and found evidence of market manipulation from oligopolistic cheese producers. arnade et al. [16] investigated the level of retail competition in the u.s. cheese market, finding that the existence of price markups suggested the presence of imperfect competitive behavior. kim and cotterill [22] investigated pass-through rates for processed cheese under market conditions and found significant differences in these rates for processed cheese under different market conditions regime in comparison to being under a nash-bertrand price competitive regime. for this latter, the pass-through rate was at least three times that of under collusion. more recently, bolotova and novakovic [4] investigated the farm-to-wholesale price transmission process affecting the pricing practices used by chicago mercantile exchange (cme) cheese wholesalers. findings revealed that pricing strategies used by cheese sellers are consistent with oligopolistic behavior. lopez et al. [23] determined the level of oligopoly markups above that of being perfectly competitive markets for several u.s. food processing infigure 3. long-run impact of cheese supply on prices. source: created by authors. 40 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 dustries by estimating the associated lerner index, which measures the amount of market power (0 = perfect competition, 1 = monopoly), and found a moderate degree of market power for the cheese manufacturing industry, i.e. corroborating prior results of the presence of oligopolistic behavior. the softening of cheese prices from sizable increases in supply has not been investigated and this study attempts to fill this gap in the literature. 3. materials and methods monthly average market prices of cheese for the period of january 2000 to december 2019 from the agriculture marketing service (ams) of usda for the dairy program are used usda ams [24]. monthly u.s. cheese supply data include production, beginning stock, and imports for the same period and are collected from the economics research service (ers) of usda ers [5]d. table 1 provides a summary of the data. cheese supply is the sum of beginning stock, production, and imports (imports not shown in figure 1). from table 1, cheese supply is on average 1.87 billion pounds per month (beginning stock 0.98 billion pounds plus production 0.87 billion pounds plus import 0.03 billion pounds) during the sample period, having a consistent upward trend, as shown in panel c in figure 1. the average monthly cheese supply during 2018 and 2019 surpassed 2.47 billion pounds after considering the average monthly beginning stock of 1.36 billion pounds. conversely, the price of cheese displays a relative opposite trend especially from 2015 to early 2019, a period of steady increase in cheese stock. as noted, many market analysts quoted in the business media have expressed concern about cheese prices falling during this period [7,25,26]. the empirical strategy to quantify the impact of unprecedented growth in cheese supply on both short-run and long-run market prices is based on the oligopolistic cheese market structure [4,15]. from prior findings of the u.s. cheese sector depicting an oligopolistic market behavior, it is anticipated that some degree of market power is exerted. in the classical oligopoly market model, e.g., the cournot model, the market price is a function of total supply [17]. as such, we estimate cheese price as a function of total supply. in addition, the price from a previous period may affect the current price since cheese is a storable commodity, i.e., affecting the adjustment of the supply schedule. to reflect the unique characteristics of the cheese market in the u.s., an innovative approach utilizing an autoregressive distributed lag model (ardl) considering cointegration [27] is adopted in this study. the d this study aggregates american and other-than-american cheese types. ardl model provides a robust framework for investigating this matter. by employing the ardl model, we are able to examine both the short-run and long-run relationships between cheese prices and cheese supply, capturing the dynamics of the market over time. an advantage of using the ardl model with a cointegration approach is that the dependent variable, in this case, cheese prices, is allowed to be non-stationary [28]. another benefit of using the ardl model is that through reparameterization we can construct an error correction model, which enables us to find the short-run and long-run effects. table 1. descriptive s tatistics (jan 2000-dec 2019, 240 observations). variable mean std. dev. max min beginning stock (million lbs.) 976 209 1,413 621 production (million lbs.) 868 133 1,154 636 import (million lbs.) 27.2 6.7 46.0 1.4 supply (million lbs.) 1,871 335 2,567 1,335 price ($ per lbs.) 1.58 0.98 2.35 1.02 sources: usda ams [24] for cheese prices and usda ers [5] for beginning stock, production, and import. supply is the sum of beginning stock, production, and import. applying kripfganz and schneider [29], the ardl (p, q) model is expressed by: 7 the empirical strategy to quantify the impact of unprecedented growth in cheese supply on both short-run and long-run market prices is based on the oligopolistic cheese market structure [4,15]. from prior findings of the u.s. cheese sector depicting an oligopolistic market behavior, it is anticipated that some degree of market power is exerted. in the classical oligopoly market model, e.g., the cournot model, the market price is a function of total supply [17]. as such, we estimate cheese price as a function of total supply. in addition, the price from a previous period may affect the current price since cheese is a storable commodity, i.e., affecting the adjustment of the supply schedule. to reflect the unique characteristics of the cheese market in the u.s., an innovative approach utilizing an autoregressive distributed lag model (ardl) considering cointegration [27] is adopted in this study. the ardl model provides a robust framework for investigating this matter. by employing the ardl model, we are able to examine both the short-run and long-run relationships between cheese prices and cheese supply, capturing the dynamics of the market over time. an advantage of using the ardl model with a cointegration approach is that the dependent variable, in this case, cheese prices, is allowed to be non-stationary [28]. another benefit of using the ardl model is that through reparameterization we can construct an error correction model, which enables us to find the short-run and long-run effects. table 1. descriptive statistics (jan 2000-dec 2019, 240 observations). variable mean std. dev. max min beginning stock (million lbs.) 976 209 1,413 621 production (million lbs.) 868 133 1,154 636 import (million lbs.) 27.2 6.7 46.0 1.4 supply (million lbs.) 1,871 335 2,567 1,335 price ($ per lbs.) 1.58 0.98 2.35 1.02 sources: usda ams [24] for cheese prices and usda ers [5] for beginning stock, production, and import. supply is the sum of beginning stock, production, and import. applying kripfganz and schneider [29], the ardl (p, q) model is expressed by:  =  + =1  − + =0  − +  (1) where  is cheese prices at time , and represented as the sum of lagged cheese prices and the sum of lagged cheese supply,  . both  and  may be stationary, non-stationary or cointegrated [27,28]. the optimal lags of p and q are determined by minimizing information criteria such as the akaike information criterion (aic) or the bayesian information criterion (bic). the error term  is assumed to be serially uncorrelated. note that ordinary least squares (ols) is used to estimate model in equation (1) even though there are lagged dependent variables present on the right-hand side [30]. pesaran and shin [28] showed that the ols estimators of the parameters in equation (1) are  -consistent and asymptotically normal, in other words,  ,  d d d n(, 2) where  = ,  ' . (1) where pt is cheese prices at time t, and represented as the sum of lagged cheese prices and the sum of lagged cheese supply, st. both pt and st may be stationary, non-stationary or cointegrated [27,28]. the optimal lags of p and q are determined by minimizing information criteria such as the akaike information criterion (aic) or the bayesian information criterion (bic). the error term εt is assumed to be serially uncorrelated. note that ordinary least squares (ols) is used to estimate model in equation (1) even though there are lagged dependent variables present on the right-hand side [30]. pesaran and shin [28] showed that the ols estimators of the parameters in equation (1) are 7 the empirical strategy to quantify the impact of unprecedented growth in cheese supply on both short-run and long-run market prices is based on the oligopolistic cheese market structure [4,15]. from prior findings of the u.s. cheese sector depicting an oligopolistic market behavior, it is anticipated that some degree of market power is exerted. in the classical oligopoly market model, e.g., the cournot model, the market price is a function of total supply [17]. as such, we estimate cheese price as a function of total supply. in addition, the price from a previous period may affect the current price since cheese is a storable commodity, i.e., affecting the adjustment of the supply schedule. to reflect the unique characteristics of the cheese market in the u.s., an innovative approach utilizing an autoregressive distributed lag model (ardl) considering cointegration [27] is adopted in this study. the ardl model provides a robust framework for investigating this matter. by employing the ardl model, we are able to examine both the short-run and long-run relationships between cheese prices and cheese supply, capturing the dynamics of the market over time. an advantage of using the ardl model with a cointegration approach is that the dependent variable, in this case, cheese prices, is allowed to be non-stationary [28]. another benefit of using the ardl model is that through reparameterization we can construct an error correction model, which enables us to find the short-run and long-run effects. table 1. descriptive statistics (jan 2000-dec 2019, 240 observations). variable mean std. dev. max min beginning stock (million lbs.) 976 209 1,413 621 production (million lbs.) 868 133 1,154 636 import (million lbs.) 27.2 6.7 46.0 1.4 supply (million lbs.) 1,871 335 2,567 1,335 price ($ per lbs.) 1.58 0.98 2.35 1.02 sources: usda ams [24] for cheese prices and usda ers [5] for beginning stock, production, and import. supply is the sum of beginning stock, production, and import. applying kripfganz and schneider [29], the ardl (p, q) model is expressed by:  =  + =1  − + =0  − +  (1) where  is cheese prices at time , and represented as the sum of lagged cheese prices and the sum of lagged cheese supply,  . both  and  may be stationary, non-stationary or cointegrated [27,28]. the optimal lags of p and q are determined by minimizing information criteria such as the akaike information criterion (aic) or the bayesian information criterion (bic). the error term  is assumed to be serially uncorrelated. note that ordinary least squares (ols) is used to estimate model in equation (1) even though there are lagged dependent variables present on the right-hand side [30]. pesaran and shin [28] showed that the ols estimators of the parameters in equation (1) are  -consistent and asymptotically normal, in other words,  ,  d d d n(, 2) where  = ,  ' . -consistent and asymptotically normal, in other words, 7 the empirical strategy to quantify the impact of unprecedented growth in cheese supply on both short-run and long-run market prices is based on the oligopolistic cheese market structure [4,15]. from prior findings of the u.s. cheese sector depicting an oligopolistic market behavior, it is anticipated that some degree of market power is exerted. in the classical oligopoly market model, e.g., the cournot model, the market price is a function of total supply [17]. as such, we estimate cheese price as a function of total supply. in addition, the price from a previous period may affect the current price since cheese is a storable commodity, i.e., affecting the adjustment of the supply schedule. to reflect the unique characteristics of the cheese market in the u.s., an innovative approach utilizing an autoregressive distributed lag model (ardl) considering cointegration [27] is adopted in this study. the ardl model provides a robust framework for investigating this matter. by employing the ardl model, we are able to examine both the short-run and long-run relationships between cheese prices and cheese supply, capturing the dynamics of the market over time. an advantage of using the ardl model with a cointegration approach is that the dependent variable, in this case, cheese prices, is allowed to be non-stationary [28]. another benefit of using the ardl model is that through reparameterization we can construct an error correction model, which enables us to find the short-run and long-run effects. table 1. descriptive statistics (jan 2000-dec 2019, 240 observations). variable mean std. dev. max min beginning stock (million lbs.) 976 209 1,413 621 production (million lbs.) 868 133 1,154 636 import (million lbs.) 27.2 6.7 46.0 1.4 supply (million lbs.) 1,871 335 2,567 1,335 price ($ per lbs.) 1.58 0.98 2.35 1.02 sources: usda ams [24] for cheese prices and usda ers [5] for beginning stock, production, and import. supply is the sum of beginning stock, production, and import. applying kripfganz and schneider [29], the ardl (p, q) model is expressed by:  =  + =1  − + =0  − +  (1) where  is cheese prices at time , and represented as the sum of lagged cheese prices and the sum of lagged cheese supply,  . both  and  may be stationary, non-stationary or cointegrated [27,28]. the optimal lags of p and q are determined by minimizing information criteria such as the akaike information criterion (aic) or the bayesian information criterion (bic). the error term  is assumed to be serially uncorrelated. note that ordinary least squares (ols) is used to estimate model in equation (1) even though there are lagged dependent variables present on the right-hand side [30]. pesaran and shin [28] showed that the ols estimators of the parameters in equation (1) are  -consistent and asymptotically normal, in other words,  ,  d d d n(, 2) where  = ,  ' .. a trend variable is added to equation (1) since visual inspection indicates a possible positive trend in cheese prices, as observed in figure 2. to control for seasonality, 11 monthly dummies are also included in equation (1). cheese prices and supply are log-transformed and thus the relationship is in proportional or percentage terms. the error correction form of the ardl model can be 41 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 formulated by reparameterization in terms of the lagged levels and the first differences of pt and st [29], and is expressed by: 8 a trend variable is added to equation (1) since visual inspection indicates a possible positive trend in cheese prices, as observed in figure 2. to control for seasonality, 11 monthly dummies are also included in equation (1). cheese prices and supply are log-transformed and thus the relationship is in proportional or percentage terms. the error correction form of the ardl model can be formulated by reparameterization in terms of the lagged levels and the first differences of  and  [29], and is expressed by: ∆ =  −  −1 − −1 =1 −1 ∆− + =0 −1 ∆− +  (2) where α is the speed of adjustment (or error correcting) coefficient, defined by:  = 1 − =1   (3) the expression −1 − −1 from equation (2) can be interpreted as the long-run equilibrium denoted by lr, the fitted line, in figure 3. when cheese prices and/or cheese supply deviates from the long-run equilibrium (lr), cheese prices and/or cheese supply adjust to restore the equilibrium relation at the speed of . a value of  ≈ 0 implies a very slow adjustment back to the long-run equilibrium. thus the value of  measures how fast cheese prices react to a deviation from the long-run relationship, lr. the long-run effects parameter, , is computed by:  = =0  ∑  = =0  ∑ 1 − =1  ∑ (4) coefficient  describes the equilibrium effect of supply on cheese prices in the long run. the short-run coefficients,  and  in equation (2) explain the short-run fluctuations not due to deviations from the long-run equilibrium. a value of  being close to one in absolute terms indicates very rapid price adjustment after a change in cheese supply. to check for the existence of the long-run relationship in equation (2), a bounds test is suggested by pesaran et al. [27]. the null hypothesis is that there is no long-run relationship between cheese prices and cheese supply. 0 :  = 0 and =0   = 0 (5) if 0  is rejected with f-test, a t-test is required to test whether  is zero or not. 0  :  = 0 (6) a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply may be confirmed by rejecting both previous f-test and t-test. lastly, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long-run adjustment) enables to measure the degree of relationship between cheese price and supply, i.e., how much of the price change occurs immediately. 4. results (2) where α is the speed of adjustment (or error correcting) coefficient, defined by: 8 a trend variable is added to equation (1) since visual inspection indicates a possible positive trend in cheese prices, as observed in figure 2. to control for seasonality, 11 monthly dummies are also included in equation (1). cheese prices and supply are log-transformed and thus the relationship is in proportional or percentage terms. the error correction form of the ardl model can be formulated by reparameterization in terms of the lagged levels and the first differences of  and  [29], and is expressed by: ∆ =  −  −1 − −1 =1 −1 ∆− + =0 −1 ∆− +  (2) where α is the speed of adjustment (or error correcting) coefficient, defined by:  = 1 − =1   (3) the expression −1 − −1 from equation (2) can be interpreted as the long-run equilibrium denoted by lr, the fitted line, in figure 3. when cheese prices and/or cheese supply deviates from the long-run equilibrium (lr), cheese prices and/or cheese supply adjust to restore the equilibrium relation at the speed of . a value of  ≈ 0 implies a very slow adjustment back to the long-run equilibrium. thus the value of  measures how fast cheese prices react to a deviation from the long-run relationship, lr. the long-run effects parameter, , is computed by:  = =0  ∑  = =0  ∑ 1 − =1  ∑ (4) coefficient  describes the equilibrium effect of supply on cheese prices in the long run. the short-run coefficients,  and  in equation (2) explain the short-run fluctuations not due to deviations from the long-run equilibrium. a value of  being close to one in absolute terms indicates very rapid price adjustment after a change in cheese supply. to check for the existence of the long-run relationship in equation (2), a bounds test is suggested by pesaran et al. [27]. the null hypothesis is that there is no long-run relationship between cheese prices and cheese supply. 0 :  = 0 and =0   = 0 (5) if 0  is rejected with f-test, a t-test is required to test whether  is zero or not. 0  :  = 0 (6) a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply may be confirmed by rejecting both previous f-test and t-test. lastly, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long-run adjustment) enables to measure the degree of relationship between cheese price and supply, i.e., how much of the price change occurs immediately. 4. results (3) the expression pt–1 – θst–1 from equation (2) can be interpreted as the long-run equilibrium denoted by lr, the fitted line, in figure 3. when cheese prices and/or cheese supply deviates from the long-run equilibrium (lr), cheese prices and/or cheese supply adjust to restore the equilibrium relation at the speed of α. a value of α ≈ 0 implies a very slow adjustment back to the long-run equilibrium. thus the value of α measures how fast cheese prices react to a deviation from the long-run relationship, lr. the long-run effects parameter, θ, is computed by: 8 a trend variable is added to equation (1) since visual inspection indicates a possible positive trend in cheese prices, as observed in figure 2. to control for seasonality, 11 monthly dummies are also included in equation (1). cheese prices and supply are log-transformed and thus the relationship is in proportional or percentage terms. the error correction form of the ardl model can be formulated by reparameterization in terms of the lagged levels and the first differences of  and  [29], and is expressed by: ∆ =  −  −1 − −1 =1 −1 ∆− + =0 −1 ∆− +  (2) where α is the speed of adjustment (or error correcting) coefficient, defined by:  = 1 − =1   (3) the expression −1 − −1 from equation (2) can be interpreted as the long-run equilibrium denoted by lr, the fitted line, in figure 3. when cheese prices and/or cheese supply deviates from the long-run equilibrium (lr), cheese prices and/or cheese supply adjust to restore the equilibrium relation at the speed of . a value of  ≈ 0 implies a very slow adjustment back to the long-run equilibrium. thus the value of  measures how fast cheese prices react to a deviation from the long-run relationship, lr. the long-run effects parameter, , is computed by:  = =0  ∑  = =0  ∑ 1 − =1  ∑ (4) coefficient  describes the equilibrium effect of supply on cheese prices in the long run. the short-run coefficients,  and  in equation (2) explain the short-run fluctuations not due to deviations from the long-run equilibrium. a value of  being close to one in absolute terms indicates very rapid price adjustment after a change in cheese supply. to check for the existence of the long-run relationship in equation (2), a bounds test is suggested by pesaran et al. [27]. the null hypothesis is that there is no long-run relationship between cheese prices and cheese supply. 0 :  = 0 and =0   = 0 (5) if 0  is rejected with f-test, a t-test is required to test whether  is zero or not. 0  :  = 0 (6) a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply may be confirmed by rejecting both previous f-test and t-test. lastly, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long-run adjustment) enables to measure the degree of relationship between cheese price and supply, i.e., how much of the price change occurs immediately. 4. results (4) coefficient θ describes the equilibrium effect of supply on cheese prices in the long run. the short-run coefficients, ψpi and ψsj in equation (2) explain the shortrun fluctuations not due to deviations from the long-run equilibrium. a value of ψsj being close to one in absolute terms indicates very rapid price adjustment after a change in cheese supply. to check for the existence of the long-run relationship in equation (2), a bounds test is suggested by pesaran et al. [27]. the null hypothesis is that there is no long-run relationship between cheese prices and cheese supply. 8 a trend variable is added to equation (1) since visual inspection indicates a possible positive trend in cheese prices, as observed in figure 2. to control for seasonality, 11 monthly dummies are also included in equation (1). cheese prices and supply are log-transformed and thus the relationship is in proportional or percentage terms. the error correction form of the ardl model can be formulated by reparameterization in terms of the lagged levels and the first differences of  and  [29], and is expressed by: ∆ =  −  −1 − −1 =1 −1 ∆− + =0 −1 ∆− +  (2) where α is the speed of adjustment (or error correcting) coefficient, defined by:  = 1 − =1   (3) the expression −1 − −1 from equation (2) can be interpreted as the long-run equilibrium denoted by lr, the fitted line, in figure 3. when cheese prices and/or cheese supply deviates from the long-run equilibrium (lr), cheese prices and/or cheese supply adjust to restore the equilibrium relation at the speed of . a value of  ≈ 0 implies a very slow adjustment back to the long-run equilibrium. thus the value of  measures how fast cheese prices react to a deviation from the long-run relationship, lr. the long-run effects parameter, , is computed by:  = =0  ∑  = =0  ∑ 1 − =1  ∑ (4) coefficient  describes the equilibrium effect of supply on cheese prices in the long run. the short-run coefficients,  and  in equation (2) explain the short-run fluctuations not due to deviations from the long-run equilibrium. a value of  being close to one in absolute terms indicates very rapid price adjustment after a change in cheese supply. to check for the existence of the long-run relationship in equation (2), a bounds test is suggested by pesaran et al. [27]. the null hypothesis is that there is no long-run relationship between cheese prices and cheese supply. 0 :  = 0 and =0   = 0 (5) if 0  is rejected with f-test, a t-test is required to test whether  is zero or not. 0  :  = 0 (6) a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply may be confirmed by rejecting both previous f-test and t-test. lastly, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long-run adjustment) enables to measure the degree of relationship between cheese price and supply, i.e., how much of the price change occurs immediately. 4. results (5) if 8 a trend variable is added to equation (1) since visual inspection indicates a possible positive trend in cheese prices, as observed in figure 2. to control for seasonality, 11 monthly dummies are also included in equation (1). cheese prices and supply are log-transformed and thus the relationship is in proportional or percentage terms. the error correction form of the ardl model can be formulated by reparameterization in terms of the lagged levels and the first differences of  and  [29], and is expressed by: ∆ =  −  −1 − −1 =1 −1 ∆− + =0 −1 ∆− +  (2) where α is the speed of adjustment (or error correcting) coefficient, defined by:  = 1 − =1   (3) the expression −1 − −1 from equation (2) can be interpreted as the long-run equilibrium denoted by lr, the fitted line, in figure 3. when cheese prices and/or cheese supply deviates from the long-run equilibrium (lr), cheese prices and/or cheese supply adjust to restore the equilibrium relation at the speed of . a value of  ≈ 0 implies a very slow adjustment back to the long-run equilibrium. thus the value of  measures how fast cheese prices react to a deviation from the long-run relationship, lr. the long-run effects parameter, , is computed by:  = =0  ∑  = =0  ∑ 1 − =1  ∑ (4) coefficient  describes the equilibrium effect of supply on cheese prices in the long run. the short-run coefficients,  and  in equation (2) explain the short-run fluctuations not due to deviations from the long-run equilibrium. a value of  being close to one in absolute terms indicates very rapid price adjustment after a change in cheese supply. to check for the existence of the long-run relationship in equation (2), a bounds test is suggested by pesaran et al. [27]. the null hypothesis is that there is no long-run relationship between cheese prices and cheese supply. 0 :  = 0 and =0   = 0 (5) if 0  is rejected with f-test, a t-test is required to test whether  is zero or not. 0  :  = 0 (6) a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply may be confirmed by rejecting both previous f-test and t-test. lastly, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long-run adjustment) enables to measure the degree of relationship between cheese price and supply, i.e., how much of the price change occurs immediately. 4. results is rejected with f-test, a t-test is required to test whether α is zero or not. 8 a trend variable is added to equation (1) since visual inspection indicates a possible positive trend in cheese prices, as observed in figure 2. to control for seasonality, 11 monthly dummies are also included in equation (1). cheese prices and supply are log-transformed and thus the relationship is in proportional or percentage terms. the error correction form of the ardl model can be formulated by reparameterization in terms of the lagged levels and the first differences of  and  [29], and is expressed by: ∆ =  −  −1 − −1 =1 −1 ∆− + =0 −1 ∆− +  (2) where α is the speed of adjustment (or error correcting) coefficient, defined by:  = 1 − =1   (3) the expression −1 − −1 from equation (2) can be interpreted as the long-run equilibrium denoted by lr, the fitted line, in figure 3. when cheese prices and/or cheese supply deviates from the long-run equilibrium (lr), cheese prices and/or cheese supply adjust to restore the equilibrium relation at the speed of . a value of  ≈ 0 implies a very slow adjustment back to the long-run equilibrium. thus the value of  measures how fast cheese prices react to a deviation from the long-run relationship, lr. the long-run effects parameter, , is computed by:  = =0  ∑  = =0  ∑ 1 − =1  ∑ (4) coefficient  describes the equilibrium effect of supply on cheese prices in the long run. the short-run coefficients,  and  in equation (2) explain the short-run fluctuations not due to deviations from the long-run equilibrium. a value of  being close to one in absolute terms indicates very rapid price adjustment after a change in cheese supply. to check for the existence of the long-run relationship in equation (2), a bounds test is suggested by pesaran et al. [27]. the null hypothesis is that there is no long-run relationship between cheese prices and cheese supply. 0 :  = 0 and =0   = 0 (5) if 0  is rejected with f-test, a t-test is required to test whether  is zero or not. 0  :  = 0 (6) a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply may be confirmed by rejecting both previous f-test and t-test. lastly, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long-run adjustment) enables to measure the degree of relationship between cheese price and supply, i.e., how much of the price change occurs immediately. 4. results (6) a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply may be confirmed by rejecting both previous f-test and t-test. lastly, the proportion of 8 a trend variable is added to equation (1) since visual inspection indicates a possible positive trend in cheese prices, as observed in figure 2. to control for seasonality, 11 monthly dummies are also included in equation (1). cheese prices and supply are log-transformed and thus the relationship is in proportional or percentage terms. the error correction form of the ardl model can be formulated by reparameterization in terms of the lagged levels and the first differences of  and  [29], and is expressed by: ∆ =  −  −1 − −1 =1 −1 ∆− + =0 −1 ∆− +  (2) where α is the speed of adjustment (or error correcting) coefficient, defined by:  = 1 − =1   (3) the expression −1 − −1 from equation (2) can be interpreted as the long-run equilibrium denoted by lr, the fitted line, in figure 3. when cheese prices and/or cheese supply deviates from the long-run equilibrium (lr), cheese prices and/or cheese supply adjust to restore the equilibrium relation at the speed of . a value of  ≈ 0 implies a very slow adjustment back to the long-run equilibrium. thus the value of  measures how fast cheese prices react to a deviation from the long-run relationship, lr. the long-run effects parameter, , is computed by:  = =0  ∑  = =0  ∑ 1 − =1  ∑ (4) coefficient  describes the equilibrium effect of supply on cheese prices in the long run. the short-run coefficients,  and  in equation (2) explain the short-run fluctuations not due to deviations from the long-run equilibrium. a value of  being close to one in absolute terms indicates very rapid price adjustment after a change in cheese supply. to check for the existence of the long-run relationship in equation (2), a bounds test is suggested by pesaran et al. [27]. the null hypothesis is that there is no long-run relationship between cheese prices and cheese supply. 0 :  = 0 and =0   = 0 (5) if 0  is rejected with f-test, a t-test is required to test whether  is zero or not. 0  :  = 0 (6) a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply may be confirmed by rejecting both previous f-test and t-test. lastly, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long-run adjustment) enables to measure the degree of relationship between cheese price and supply, i.e., how much of the price change occurs immediately. 4. results (contemporaneous adjustment) to θ (long-run adjustment) enables to measure the degree of relationship between cheese price and supply, i.e., how much of the price change occurs immediately. 4. results empirical results from estimating equation (1) for the price of cheese and its supply, between january 2000 and december 2019, are presented. the optimal lags for cheese supply and cheese prices were selected by minimizing bic resulting in p = 2 and q = 1. table 2 presents the top three ardl models with the lowest bic for comparison; as mentioned ardl (2,1) is found to be the preferred resulting model. note that the bounds test confirms that there is a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply (f-stat = 11.79 and t-stat = 7.30; both h f and h t from equations (5) and (6) are rejected at 1% significant level). the optimal model ardl (2, 1) from equation (1) is expressed by: 9 empirical results from estimating equation (1) for the price of cheese and its supply, between january 2000 and december 2019, are presented. the optimal lags for cheese supply and cheese prices were selected by minimizing bic resulting in  = 2 and  = 1 . table 2 presents the top three ardl models with the lowest bic for comparison; as mentioned ardl (2,1) is found to be the preferred resulting model. note that the bounds test confirms that there is a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply (f-stat = 11.79 and t-stat = 7.30; both  and  from equations (5) and (6) are rejected at 1% significant level). the optimal model ardl (2, 1) from equation (1) is expressed by: ln  =  + 1 ln −1 + 2 ln −2 +0 ln  + 1 ln −1 +  + =1 11  +  (7) where 0 is interpreted as the concurrent (instantaneous) supply effect,  is a trend and  is a monthly dummy (results are not reported in table 2 to save space and are available upon request). the coefficients from table 2 are not easy to interpret because there are lagged dependent and independent variables. as discussed in the previous method section, a reparameterization of the estimated parameters permits converting the model into an error correction form as in equation (2), from which estimated results are in table 3. the long-run coefficient, , from equations (2) and (4) is in the lr row of table 3, representing the long-run effects of cheese supply on the price of cheese. the model ardl (2, 1) from equation (7) is rewritten in error correction form as follows: δ ln  =  −  ln −1 −  ln −1 + 1∆ ln −1 + 1∆ ln  +  + =1 11  +  (8) as mentioned, the coefficient of δ ln  from equation (8), 1 measures the contemporaneous effect on the price of cheese due to changes in cheese supply. table 3, 1� = − 0.866 with p-value of 0.02, implies that 1% increase in supply leads to an immediate 0.87% decrease in cheese prices. the estimated value of , the speed of adjustment coefficient, is – 0.164. this suggests that it takes about 1 0.16 ≈ 6.3 months to correct an equilibrium disturbance. the estimated parameter, , which indicates the long-run effect of an increase in cheese supply on its prices, is –1.891. in other words, a 1% increase in cheese supply results in a 1.89% decrease in cheese prices in the long run. moreover, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long run adjustment),  �1 � = 0.46, which indicates that the immediate change in cheese prices is 46% of the long run change. 5. conclusions and implications the present study seeks to determine the extent that effects from a substantial growth in cheese supply have had on the decline of its prices. this situation not only affects the cheese 9 empirical results from estimating equation (1) for the price of cheese and its supply, between january 2000 and december 2019, are presented. the optimal lags for cheese supply and cheese prices were selected by minimizing bic resulting in  = 2 and  = 1 . table 2 presents the top three ardl models with the lowest bic for comparison; as mentioned ardl (2,1) is found to be the preferred resulting model. note that the bounds test confirms that there is a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply (f-stat = 11.79 and t-stat = 7.30; both  and  from equations (5) and (6) are rejected at 1% significant level). the optimal model ardl (2, 1) from equation (1) is expressed by: ln  =  + 1 ln −1 + 2 ln −2 +0 ln  + 1 ln −1 +  + =1 11  +  (7) where 0 is interpreted as the concurrent (instantaneous) supply effect,  is a trend and  is a monthly dummy (results are not reported in table 2 to save space and are available upon request). the coefficients from table 2 are not easy to interpret because there are lagged dependent and independent variables. as discussed in the previous method section, a reparameterization of the estimated parameters permits converting the model into an error correction form as in equation (2), from which estimated results are in table 3. the long-run coefficient, , from equations (2) and (4) is in the lr row of table 3, representing the long-run effects of cheese supply on the price of cheese. the model ardl (2, 1) from equation (7) is rewritten in error correction form as follows: δ ln  =  −  ln −1 −  ln −1 + 1∆ ln −1 + 1∆ ln  +  + =1 11  +  (8) as mentioned, the coefficient of δ ln  from equation (8), 1 measures the contemporaneous effect on the price of cheese due to changes in cheese supply. table 3, 1� = − 0.866 with p-value of 0.02, implies that 1% increase in supply leads to an immediate 0.87% decrease in cheese prices. the estimated value of , the speed of adjustment coefficient, is – 0.164. this suggests that it takes about 1 0.16 ≈ 6.3 months to correct an equilibrium disturbance. the estimated parameter, , which indicates the long-run effect of an increase in cheese supply on its prices, is –1.891. in other words, a 1% increase in cheese supply results in a 1.89% decrease in cheese prices in the long run. moreover, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long run adjustment),  �1 � = 0.46, which indicates that the immediate change in cheese prices is 46% of the long run change. 5. conclusions and implications the present study seeks to determine the extent that effects from a substantial growth in cheese supply have had on the decline of its prices. this situation not only affects the cheese (7) where β0 is interpreted as the concurrent (instantaneous) supply effect, t is a trend and dm is a monthly dummy (results are not reported in table 2 to save space and are available upon request). the coefficients from table 2 are not easy to interpret because there are lagged dependent and independent variables. as discussed in the previous method section, a reparameterization of the estimated parameters permits converting the model into an error correction form as in equation (2), from which estimated results are in table 3. the long-run coefficient, θ, from equations (2) and (4) is in the lr row of table 3, representing the long-run effects of cheese supply on the price of cheese. the model ardl (2, 1) from equation (7) is rewritten in error correction form as follows: 9 empirical results from estimating equation (1) for the price of cheese and its supply, between january 2000 and december 2019, are presented. the optimal lags for cheese supply and cheese prices were selected by minimizing bic resulting in  = 2 and  = 1 . table 2 presents the top three ardl models with the lowest bic for comparison; as mentioned ardl (2,1) is found to be the preferred resulting model. note that the bounds test confirms that there is a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply (f-stat = 11.79 and t-stat = 7.30; both  and  from equations (5) and (6) are rejected at 1% significant level). the optimal model ardl (2, 1) from equation (1) is expressed by: ln  =  + 1 ln −1 + 2 ln −2 +0 ln  + 1 ln −1 +  + =1 11  +  (7) where 0 is interpreted as the concurrent (instantaneous) supply effect,  is a trend and  is a monthly dummy (results are not reported in table 2 to save space and are available upon request). the coefficients from table 2 are not easy to interpret because there are lagged dependent and independent variables. as discussed in the previous method section, a reparameterization of the estimated parameters permits converting the model into an error correction form as in equation (2), from which estimated results are in table 3. the long-run coefficient, , from equations (2) and (4) is in the lr row of table 3, representing the long-run effects of cheese supply on the price of cheese. the model ardl (2, 1) from equation (7) is rewritten in error correction form as follows: δ ln  =  −  ln −1 −  ln −1 + 1∆ ln −1 + 1∆ ln  +  + =1 11  +  (8) as mentioned, the coefficient of δ ln  from equation (8), 1 measures the contemporaneous effect on the price of cheese due to changes in cheese supply. table 3, 1� = − 0.866 with p-value of 0.02, implies that 1% increase in supply leads to an immediate 0.87% decrease in cheese prices. the estimated value of , the speed of adjustment coefficient, is – 0.164. this suggests that it takes about 1 0.16 ≈ 6.3 months to correct an equilibrium disturbance. the estimated parameter, , which indicates the long-run effect of an increase in cheese supply on its prices, is –1.891. in other words, a 1% increase in cheese supply results in a 1.89% decrease in cheese prices in the long run. moreover, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long run adjustment),  �1 � = 0.46, which indicates that the immediate change in cheese prices is 46% of the long run change. 5. conclusions and implications the present study seeks to determine the extent that effects from a substantial growth in cheese supply have had on the decline of its prices. this situation not only affects the cheese 9 empirical results from estimating equation (1) for the price of cheese and its supply, between january 2000 and december 2019, are presented. the optimal lags for cheese supply and cheese prices were selected by minimizing bic resulting in  = 2 and  = 1 . table 2 presents the top three ardl models with the lowest bic for comparison; as mentioned ardl (2,1) is found to be the preferred resulting model. note that the bounds test confirms that there is a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply (f-stat = 11.79 and t-stat = 7.30; both  and  from equations (5) and (6) are rejected at 1% significant level). the optimal model ardl (2, 1) from equation (1) is expressed by: ln  =  + 1 ln −1 + 2 ln −2 +0 ln  + 1 ln −1 +  + =1 11  +  (7) where 0 is interpreted as the concurrent (instantaneous) supply effect,  is a trend and  is a monthly dummy (results are not reported in table 2 to save space and are available upon request). the coefficients from table 2 are not easy to interpret because there are lagged dependent and independent variables. as discussed in the previous method section, a reparameterization of the estimated parameters permits converting the model into an error correction form as in equation (2), from which estimated results are in table 3. the long-run coefficient, , from equations (2) and (4) is in the lr row of table 3, representing the long-run effects of cheese supply on the price of cheese. the model ardl (2, 1) from equation (7) is rewritten in error correction form as follows: δ ln  =  −  ln −1 −  ln −1 + 1∆ ln −1 + 1∆ ln  +  + =1 11  +  (8) as mentioned, the coefficient of δ ln  from equation (8), 1 measures the contemporaneous effect on the price of cheese due to changes in cheese supply. table 3, 1� = − 0.866 with p-value of 0.02, implies that 1% increase in supply leads to an immediate 0.87% decrease in cheese prices. the estimated value of , the speed of adjustment coefficient, is – 0.164. this suggests that it takes about 1 0.16 ≈ 6.3 months to correct an equilibrium disturbance. the estimated parameter, , which indicates the long-run effect of an increase in cheese supply on its prices, is –1.891. in other words, a 1% increase in cheese supply results in a 1.89% decrease in cheese prices in the long run. moreover, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long run adjustment),  �1 � = 0.46, which indicates that the immediate change in cheese prices is 46% of the long run change. 5. conclusions and implications the present study seeks to determine the extent that effects from a substantial growth in cheese supply have had on the decline of its prices. this situation not only affects the cheese 9 empirical results from estimating equation (1) for the price of cheese and its supply, between january 2000 and december 2019, are presented. the optimal lags for cheese supply and cheese prices were selected by minimizing bic resulting in  = 2 and  = 1 . table 2 presents the top three ardl models with the lowest bic for comparison; as mentioned ardl (2,1) is found to be the preferred resulting model. note that the bounds test confirms that there is a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply (f-stat = 11.79 and t-stat = 7.30; both  and  from equations (5) and (6) are rejected at 1% significant level). the optimal model ardl (2, 1) from equation (1) is expressed by: ln  =  + 1 ln −1 + 2 ln −2 +0 ln  + 1 ln −1 +  + =1 11  +  (7) where 0 is interpreted as the concurrent (instantaneous) supply effect,  is a trend and  is a monthly dummy (results are not reported in table 2 to save space and are available upon request). the coefficients from table 2 are not easy to interpret because there are lagged dependent and independent variables. as discussed in the previous method section, a reparameterization of the estimated parameters permits converting the model into an error correction form as in equation (2), from which estimated results are in table 3. the long-run coefficient, , from equations (2) and (4) is in the lr row of table 3, representing the long-run effects of cheese supply on the price of cheese. the model ardl (2, 1) from equation (7) is rewritten in error correction form as follows: δ ln  =  −  ln −1 −  ln −1 + 1∆ ln −1 + 1∆ ln  +  + =1 11  +  (8) as mentioned, the coefficient of δ ln  from equation (8), 1 measures the contemporaneous effect on the price of cheese due to changes in cheese supply. table 3, 1� = − 0.866 with p-value of 0.02, implies that 1% increase in supply leads to an immediate 0.87% decrease in cheese prices. the estimated value of , the speed of adjustment coefficient, is – 0.164. this suggests that it takes about 1 0.16 ≈ 6.3 months to correct an equilibrium disturbance. the estimated parameter, , which indicates the long-run effect of an increase in cheese supply on its prices, is –1.891. in other words, a 1% increase in cheese supply results in a 1.89% decrease in cheese prices in the long run. moreover, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long run adjustment),  �1 � = 0.46, which indicates that the immediate change in cheese prices is 46% of the long run change. 5. conclusions and implications the present study seeks to determine the extent that effects from a substantial growth in cheese supply have had on the decline of its prices. this situation not only affects the cheese (8) as mentioned, the coefficient of 9 empirical results from estimating equation (1) for the price of cheese and its supply, between january 2000 and december 2019, are presented. the optimal lags for cheese supply and cheese prices were selected by minimizing bic resulting in  = 2 and  = 1 . table 2 presents the top three ardl models with the lowest bic for comparison; as mentioned ardl (2,1) is found to be the preferred resulting model. note that the bounds test confirms that there is a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply (f-stat = 11.79 and t-stat = 7.30; both  and  from equations (5) and (6) are rejected at 1% significant level). the optimal model ardl (2, 1) from equation (1) is expressed by: ln  =  + 1 ln −1 + 2 ln −2 +0 ln  + 1 ln −1 +  + =1 11  +  (7) where 0 is interpreted as the concurrent (instantaneous) supply effect,  is a trend and  is a monthly dummy (results are not reported in table 2 to save space and are available upon request). the coefficients from table 2 are not easy to interpret because there are lagged dependent and independent variables. as discussed in the previous method section, a reparameterization of the estimated parameters permits converting the model into an error correction form as in equation (2), from which estimated results are in table 3. the long-run coefficient, , from equations (2) and (4) is in the lr row of table 3, representing the long-run effects of cheese supply on the price of cheese. the model ardl (2, 1) from equation (7) is rewritten in error correction form as follows: δ ln  =  −  ln −1 −  ln −1 + 1∆ ln −1 + 1∆ ln  +  + =1 11  +  (8) as mentioned, the coefficient of δ ln  from equation (8), 1 measures the contemporaneous effect on the price of cheese due to changes in cheese supply. table 3, 1� = − 0.866 with p-value of 0.02, implies that 1% increase in supply leads to an immediate 0.87% decrease in cheese prices. the estimated value of , the speed of adjustment coefficient, is – 0.164. this suggests that it takes about 1 0.16 ≈ 6.3 months to correct an equilibrium disturbance. the estimated parameter, , which indicates the long-run effect of an increase in cheese supply on its prices, is –1.891. in other words, a 1% increase in cheese supply results in a 1.89% decrease in cheese prices in the long run. moreover, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long run adjustment),  �1 � = 0.46, which indicates that the immediate change in cheese prices is 46% of the long run change. 5. conclusions and implications the present study seeks to determine the extent that effects from a substantial growth in cheese supply have had on the decline of its prices. this situation not only affects the cheese from equation (8), 9 empirical results from estimating equation (1) for the price of cheese and its supply, between january 2000 and december 2019, are presented. the optimal lags for cheese supply and cheese prices were selected by minimizing bic resulting in  = 2 and  = 1 . table 2 presents the top three ardl models with the lowest bic for comparison; as mentioned ardl (2,1) is found to be the preferred resulting model. note that the bounds test confirms that there is a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply (f-stat = 11.79 and t-stat = 7.30; both  and  from equations (5) and (6) are rejected at 1% significant level). the optimal model ardl (2, 1) from equation (1) is expressed by: ln  =  + 1 ln −1 + 2 ln −2 +0 ln  + 1 ln −1 +  + =1 11  +  (7) where 0 is interpreted as the concurrent (instantaneous) supply effect,  is a trend and  is a monthly dummy (results are not reported in table 2 to save space and are available upon request). the coefficients from table 2 are not easy to interpret because there are lagged dependent and independent variables. as discussed in the previous method section, a reparameterization of the estimated parameters permits converting the model into an error correction form as in equation (2), from which estimated results are in table 3. the long-run coefficient, , from equations (2) and (4) is in the lr row of table 3, representing the long-run effects of cheese supply on the price of cheese. the model ardl (2, 1) from equation (7) is rewritten in error correction form as follows: δ ln  =  −  ln −1 −  ln −1 + 1∆ ln −1 + 1∆ ln  +  + =1 11  +  (8) as mentioned, the coefficient of δ ln  from equation (8), 1 measures the contemporaneous effect on the price of cheese due to changes in cheese supply. table 3, 1� = − 0.866 with p-value of 0.02, implies that 1% increase in supply leads to an immediate 0.87% decrease in cheese prices. the estimated value of , the speed of adjustment coefficient, is – 0.164. this suggests that it takes about 1 0.16 ≈ 6.3 months to correct an equilibrium disturbance. the estimated parameter, , which indicates the long-run effect of an increase in cheese supply on its prices, is –1.891. in other words, a 1% increase in cheese supply results in a 1.89% decrease in cheese prices in the long run. moreover, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long run adjustment),  �1 � = 0.46, which indicates that the immediate change in cheese prices is 46% of the long run change. 5. conclusions and implications the present study seeks to determine the extent that effects from a substantial growth in cheese supply have had on the decline of its prices. this situation not only affects the cheese measures the contemporaneous effect on the price of cheese due to changes in cheese supply. table 3, 9 empirical results from estimating equation (1) for the price of cheese and its supply, between january 2000 and december 2019, are presented. the optimal lags for cheese supply and cheese prices were selected by minimizing bic resulting in  = 2 and  = 1 . table 2 presents the top three ardl models with the lowest bic for comparison; as mentioned ardl (2,1) is found to be the preferred resulting model. note that the bounds test confirms that there is a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply (f-stat = 11.79 and t-stat = 7.30; both  and  from equations (5) and (6) are rejected at 1% significant level). the optimal model ardl (2, 1) from equation (1) is expressed by: ln  =  + 1 ln −1 + 2 ln −2 +0 ln  + 1 ln −1 +  + =1 11  +  (7) where 0 is interpreted as the concurrent (instantaneous) supply effect,  is a trend and  is a monthly dummy (results are not reported in table 2 to save space and are available upon request). the coefficients from table 2 are not easy to interpret because there are lagged dependent and independent variables. as discussed in the previous method section, a reparameterization of the estimated parameters permits converting the model into an error correction form as in equation (2), from which estimated results are in table 3. the long-run coefficient, , from equations (2) and (4) is in the lr row of table 3, representing the long-run effects of cheese supply on the price of cheese. the model ardl (2, 1) from equation (7) is rewritten in error correction form as follows: δ ln  =  −  ln −1 −  ln −1 + 1∆ ln −1 + 1∆ ln  +  + =1 11  +  (8) as mentioned, the coefficient of δ ln  from equation (8), 1 measures the contemporaneous effect on the price of cheese due to changes in cheese supply. table 3, 1� = − 0.866 with p-value of 0.02, implies that 1% increase in supply leads to an immediate 0.87% decrease in cheese prices. the estimated value of , the speed of adjustment coefficient, is – 0.164. this suggests that it takes about 1 0.16 ≈ 6.3 months to correct an equilibrium disturbance. the estimated parameter, , which indicates the long-run effect of an increase in cheese supply on its prices, is –1.891. in other words, a 1% increase in cheese supply results in a 1.89% decrease in cheese prices in the long run. moreover, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long run adjustment),  �1 � = 0.46, which indicates that the immediate change in cheese prices is 46% of the long run change. 5. conclusions and implications the present study seeks to determine the extent that effects from a substantial growth in cheese supply have had on the decline of its prices. this situation not only affects the cheese = –0.866 with p-value of 0.02, implies that 1% increase in supply leads to an immediate 0.87% decrease in cheese prices. the estimated value of α, the speed of adjustment coefficient, is –0.164. this suggests that it takes about 9 empirical results from estimating equation (1) for the price of cheese and its supply, between january 2000 and december 2019, are presented. the optimal lags for cheese supply and cheese prices were selected by minimizing bic resulting in  = 2 and  = 1 . table 2 presents the top three ardl models with the lowest bic for comparison; as mentioned ardl (2,1) is found to be the preferred resulting model. note that the bounds test confirms that there is a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply (f-stat = 11.79 and t-stat = 7.30; both  and  from equations (5) and (6) are rejected at 1% significant level). the optimal model ardl (2, 1) from equation (1) is expressed by: ln  =  + 1 ln −1 + 2 ln −2 +0 ln  + 1 ln −1 +  + =1 11  +  (7) where 0 is interpreted as the concurrent (instantaneous) supply effect,  is a trend and  is a monthly dummy (results are not reported in table 2 to save space and are available upon request). the coefficients from table 2 are not easy to interpret because there are lagged dependent and independent variables. as discussed in the previous method section, a reparameterization of the estimated parameters permits converting the model into an error correction form as in equation (2), from which estimated results are in table 3. the long-run coefficient, , from equations (2) and (4) is in the lr row of table 3, representing the long-run effects of cheese supply on the price of cheese. the model ardl (2, 1) from equation (7) is rewritten in error correction form as follows: δ ln  =  −  ln −1 −  ln −1 + 1∆ ln −1 + 1∆ ln  +  + =1 11  +  (8) as mentioned, the coefficient of δ ln  from equation (8), 1 measures the contemporaneous effect on the price of cheese due to changes in cheese supply. table 3, 1� = − 0.866 with p-value of 0.02, implies that 1% increase in supply leads to an immediate 0.87% decrease in cheese prices. the estimated value of , the speed of adjustment coefficient, is – 0.164. this suggests that it takes about 1 0.16 ≈ 6.3 months to correct an equilibrium disturbance. the estimated parameter, , which indicates the long-run effect of an increase in cheese supply on its prices, is –1.891. in other words, a 1% increase in cheese supply results in a 1.89% decrease in cheese prices in the long run. moreover, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long run adjustment),  �1 � = 0.46, which indicates that the immediate change in cheese prices is 46% of the long run change. 5. conclusions and implications the present study seeks to determine the extent that effects from a substantial growth in cheese supply have had on the decline of its prices. this situation not only affects the cheese ≈ 6.3 months to correct an equilibrium disturbance. the estimated parameter, θ, which indicates the longrun effect of an increase in cheese supply on its prices, 42 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 is –1.891. in other words, a 1% increase in cheese supply results in a 1.89% decrease in cheese prices in the long run. moreover, the proportion of 9 empirical results from estimating equation (1) for the price of cheese and its supply, between january 2000 and december 2019, are presented. the optimal lags for cheese supply and cheese prices were selected by minimizing bic resulting in  = 2 and  = 1 . table 2 presents the top three ardl models with the lowest bic for comparison; as mentioned ardl (2,1) is found to be the preferred resulting model. note that the bounds test confirms that there is a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply (f-stat = 11.79 and t-stat = 7.30; both  and  from equations (5) and (6) are rejected at 1% significant level). the optimal model ardl (2, 1) from equation (1) is expressed by: ln  =  + 1 ln −1 + 2 ln −2 +0 ln  + 1 ln −1 +  + =1 11  +  (7) where 0 is interpreted as the concurrent (instantaneous) supply effect,  is a trend and  is a monthly dummy (results are not reported in table 2 to save space and are available upon request). the coefficients from table 2 are not easy to interpret because there are lagged dependent and independent variables. as discussed in the previous method section, a reparameterization of the estimated parameters permits converting the model into an error correction form as in equation (2), from which estimated results are in table 3. the long-run coefficient, , from equations (2) and (4) is in the lr row of table 3, representing the long-run effects of cheese supply on the price of cheese. the model ardl (2, 1) from equation (7) is rewritten in error correction form as follows: δ ln  =  −  ln −1 −  ln −1 + 1∆ ln −1 + 1∆ ln  +  + =1 11  +  (8) as mentioned, the coefficient of δ ln  from equation (8), 1 measures the contemporaneous effect on the price of cheese due to changes in cheese supply. table 3, 1� = − 0.866 with p-value of 0.02, implies that 1% increase in supply leads to an immediate 0.87% decrease in cheese prices. the estimated value of , the speed of adjustment coefficient, is – 0.164. this suggests that it takes about 1 0.16 ≈ 6.3 months to correct an equilibrium disturbance. the estimated parameter, , which indicates the long-run effect of an increase in cheese supply on its prices, is –1.891. in other words, a 1% increase in cheese supply results in a 1.89% decrease in cheese prices in the long run. moreover, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long run adjustment),  �1 � = 0.46, which indicates that the immediate change in cheese prices is 46% of the long run change. 5. conclusions and implications the present study seeks to determine the extent that effects from a substantial growth in cheese supply have had on the decline of its prices. this situation not only affects the cheese (contemporaneous adjustment) to θ (long run adjustment), 9 empirical results from estimating equation (1) for the price of cheese and its supply, between january 2000 and december 2019, are presented. the optimal lags for cheese supply and cheese prices were selected by minimizing bic resulting in  = 2 and  = 1 . table 2 presents the top three ardl models with the lowest bic for comparison; as mentioned ardl (2,1) is found to be the preferred resulting model. note that the bounds test confirms that there is a long-run relationship between the price of cheese and cheese supply (f-stat = 11.79 and t-stat = 7.30; both  and  from equations (5) and (6) are rejected at 1% significant level). the optimal model ardl (2, 1) from equation (1) is expressed by: ln  =  + 1 ln −1 + 2 ln −2 +0 ln  + 1 ln −1 +  + =1 11  +  (7) where 0 is interpreted as the concurrent (instantaneous) supply effect,  is a trend and  is a monthly dummy (results are not reported in table 2 to save space and are available upon request). the coefficients from table 2 are not easy to interpret because there are lagged dependent and independent variables. as discussed in the previous method section, a reparameterization of the estimated parameters permits converting the model into an error correction form as in equation (2), from which estimated results are in table 3. the long-run coefficient, , from equations (2) and (4) is in the lr row of table 3, representing the long-run effects of cheese supply on the price of cheese. the model ardl (2, 1) from equation (7) is rewritten in error correction form as follows: δ ln  =  −  ln −1 −  ln −1 + 1∆ ln −1 + 1∆ ln  +  + =1 11  +  (8) as mentioned, the coefficient of δ ln  from equation (8), 1 measures the contemporaneous effect on the price of cheese due to changes in cheese supply. table 3, 1� = − 0.866 with p-value of 0.02, implies that 1% increase in supply leads to an immediate 0.87% decrease in cheese prices. the estimated value of , the speed of adjustment coefficient, is – 0.164. this suggests that it takes about 1 0.16 ≈ 6.3 months to correct an equilibrium disturbance. the estimated parameter, , which indicates the long-run effect of an increase in cheese supply on its prices, is –1.891. in other words, a 1% increase in cheese supply results in a 1.89% decrease in cheese prices in the long run. moreover, the proportion of 1 (contemporaneous adjustment) to  (long run adjustment),  �1 � = 0.46, which indicates that the immediate change in cheese prices is 46% of the long run change. 5. conclusions and implications the present study seeks to determine the extent that effects from a substantial growth in cheese supply have had on the decline of its prices. this situation not only affects the cheese = 0.46, which indicates that the immediate change in cheese prices is 46% of the long run change. 5. conclusions and implications the present study seeks to determine the extent that effects from a substantial growth in cheese supply have had on the decline of its prices. this situation not only affects the cheese sector stakeholders but also the milk prices of dairy producers through fmmos. previous studies have characterized the cheese market as having an oligopolistic nature, with its prices being a function of supply. under an oligopolistic market scenario, we make use of monthly cheese prices and supply data from 2000 to 2019 to estimate an ardl model and quantify the market effects. table 2. ardl model results. ardl (2,0) ardl (2,1) ardl (3,1) ln pt−1 1.1357 ∗∗∗ 1.1224∗∗∗ 1.1686∗∗∗ (0.064) (0.064) (0.067) ln pt−2 –0.3086 ∗∗∗ –0.2860∗∗∗ –0.4494∗∗∗ (0.065) (0.065) (0.099) ln pt−3 0.1451 ∗∗ (0.067) ln st 0.3974 ∗∗ 1.1754∗∗∗ –1.0991∗∗∗ (0.178) (0.369) (0.370) ln st-1 0.8661 ∗∗ (0.362) 0.8733∗∗ (0.359) trend 0.0012∗∗ (0.0005) 0.0010∗∗ (0.0005) 0.0008 (0.0005) constant 0.1554∗∗ 0.1287∗∗ 0.0951 (0.062) (0.063) (0.065) obs 238 236 237 adj r2 0.878 0.877 0.881 f-stat 114.4[0.00] 105.6[0.00] 103.4[0.00] bic –533.79 –534.56 –534.09 note: *, **, and *** indicate the significance at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. results for monthly dummies are not reported to save space, which are available upon request. pt represents cheese prices at time t and st is cheese supply at time t. numbers in brackets in f-stat row are p-values associated with the f-stats. empirical results indicate that the recent substantial growth in cheese supply indeed significantly decreased cheese prices. results from an estimated optimal ardl (2,1) model find that a 1% increase in cheese supply leads to a 0.87% decrease in cheese prices in the short run and a 1.89% decrease in the long run. that is, for a monthly average supply in 2019 of 2,486 million pounds, a 1% increase in supply is roughly equivalent to 25 million pounds, which would depress cheese prices by 1.53 cents/ pound in the short run and 3.32 cents/pound in the long run. implications from the findings are compelling. considering 2019 as the reference year, and assuming all other things being equal, if cheese supply had decreased by 7.5% (roughly, 186 million pounds), 2019 cheese prices would have on average been around $2/pound; however, the actual average price was about $1.75/pound. in conclusion, this study carries important theoretical implications that contribute to our understanding of market dynamics within the cheese industry. by examining the relationship between cheese supply and prices within an oligopolistic market structure, we have shed light on the intricacies of pricing mechanisms and the influence of excessive supply growth on market outcomes. this analysis enriches our knowledge of how market forces operate within this specific industry context. moreover, the practical implications of our findings hold significant relevance for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and market participants. the insights gained from this study regarding the impact of the unprecedented growth of cheese supply on prices provide valuable guidance for decision-making processes related to supply management, risk mitigation, and investment strategies. empirical evidence and a deeper understanding of the dynamics at play can inform the formulation of effective policies and facilitate informed strategic decision-making within the cheese industry. it is crucial to note that discussions surrounding cheese prices should consider the unusual and significant growth in cheese supply, as revealed in this study. such considerations have implications for risk management and trade policy analysis. by incorporating these insights, stakeholders can navigate challenges posed by the mentioned cheese supply phenomena studied and make wellinformed decisions to foster a viable and sustainable cheese sector. there are several potential avenues for future research based on the findings and implications of this study. firstly, while this study primarily focused on the impact of the unprecedented growth of cheese supply on prices, future research could expand on this by examining the role of demand factors in shaping cheese prices. investigating the relationship between consumer preferences, demographic 43 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 changes, and market demand could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of price formation in the cheese industry. secondly, further research could delve into the broader implications of supply chain efficiency and coordination on market outcomes. factors such as transportation costs, inventory management, and distribution strategies can significantly impact the overall functioning of the cheese market. exploring these aspects can provide insights into how supply chain dynamics affect price dynamics and market outcomes. thirdly, considering the growing export market for cheese, future research could explore the impact of international trade on domestic cheese prices and market integration. analyzing trade patterns, tariffs, and trade agreements can offer valuable insights into the relationship between global market dynamics and domestic cheese prices. lastly, it is important to address a caveat. this study assumed an oligopolistic market structure in the cheese industry based on previous studies [4,15,16]. however, it is essential to acknowledge that market structures may evolve over time, and the assumption of an oligopoly in the u.s. cheese market may no longer be the case. future research could investigate the current market structure and its implications for price dynamics to provide updated insights. authors contributions the authors confirm contribution to the paper as follows: study conception and design: z. wang, h. tejeda, and m-k. kim; data collection: z. wang and w. siu; analysis and interpretation of results: z. wang, h. tejeda, m-k. kim and w. siu; draft manuscript preparation: z. wang, h. tejeda, m-k. kim and w. siu. all authors reviewed the results and approved the final version of the manuscript. funding this research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. data availability data is available upon request (all the data used in the manuscript are available from the public domain). please contact the corresponding author. conflict of interest authors certify that we have no affiliation with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript. references [1] durisin, m.. americans are drinking less milk, but they can’t get enough cheese. bloomberg, 2017 jan 11. available from: https://www.bloomberg.com/ news/articles/2017-01-11/cheesier-pizzas-rescuedairy-prices-as-americans-drink-less-milk [2] dairy products 1995 summary [internet]. national agricultural statistics service (nass); 1996 [cited 2021 jan 17]. available from: https://downloads. usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/jm214p131/ pn89d8896/9k41zh017/dairprodsu-05-02-1996.pdf [3] dairy products 2019 summary [internet]. national agricultural statistics service (nass); 2020 [cited 2021 jan 17]. available from: https://downloads. usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/jm214p131/ sb397v22f/mg74r618b/daryan20.pdf [4] bolotova, y.v., novakovic, a.m., 2015. an empirical analysis of wholesale cheese pricing practices on the chicago mercantile exchange (cme) spot cheese table 3. ardl in error correction form. ardl (2,0) ardl (2,1) ardl (3,1) adj ln pt−1 –0.1730 ∗∗∗ –0.1636∗∗∗ –0.1357∗∗∗ (0.035) (0.035) (0.037) lr ln st –2.2980 ∗∗∗ –1.8910∗∗ –1.6636 (0.839) (0.914) (1.141) sr ∆lnpt−1 0.3086 ∗∗∗ 0.2860∗∗∗ 0.3043∗∗∗ (0.065) (0.065) (0.065) ∆lnpt−2 –0.1451 ∗∗ (0.067) ∆lnst –0.8661 ∗∗ –0.8733∗∗ (0.362) (0.359) trend 0.0012∗∗ 0.0010∗ 0.0008 (0.0005) (0.0005) (0.0005) constant 0.1554∗∗ 0.1266∗ 0.0951 (0.062) (0.064) (0.065) note: *, **, and *** indicate the significance at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. results for monthly dummies are not reported to save space, which are available upon request. ardl (p, q) represents autoregressive distributed lag model; p is number of lags of autoregressive terms, pt−i, and q is number of distributed lag terms, st−j. see equation (1). adj represents α, the speed of adjustment, in equation (3). lr represents θ, the long run coefficient, in equation (4). sr represents ψpi and ψsj, the short run coefficients, in equation (2). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-11/cheesier-pizzas-rescue-dairy-prices-as-americans-drink-less-milk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-11/cheesier-pizzas-rescue-dairy-prices-as-americans-drink-less-milk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-11/cheesier-pizzas-rescue-dairy-prices-as-americans-drink-less-milk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-11/cheesier-pizzas-rescue-dairy-prices-as-americans-drink-less-milk https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/jm214p131/pn89d8896/9k41zh017/dairprodsu-05-02-1996.pdf https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/jm214p131/pn89d8896/9k41zh017/dairprodsu-05-02-1996.pdf https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/jm214p131/pn89d8896/9k41zh017/dairprodsu-05-02-1996.pdf https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/jm214p131/pn89d8896/9k41zh017/dairprodsu-05-02-1996.pdf https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/jm214p131/sb397v22f/mg74r618b/daryan20.pdf https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/jm214p131/sb397v22f/mg74r618b/daryan20.pdf https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/jm214p131/sb397v22f/mg74r618b/daryan20.pdf https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/jm214p131/sb397v22f/mg74r618b/daryan20.pdf 44 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 market. international food and agribusiness management review. 18(3), 49-66. doi: https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.208403 [5] dairy data [internet]. u.s. department of agriculture (usda), economic research service (ers); 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2020. [cited 2021 jan 17]. available from: https://www.fb.org/market-intel/largest-decline-in-u. s.-dairy-farms-in15-plus-years-in-2019 [11] federal milk marketing orders (fmmo) [internet]. international dairy foods association (idfa); 2020 [cited 2020 may 13]. available from: https://www. idfa.org/federal-milk-marketing-orders [12] federal milk marketing orders [internet]. u.s. department of agriculture (usda), agricultural marketing service (ams); 2020 [cited 2020 may 13]. available from: https://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/moa/dairy [13] newman, j., bunge, j. farmers dump milk, break eggs as coronavirus restaurant closings destroy demand. the wall street journal, 2020 apr 9. available from: https://www.wsj.com/articles/farmers-dealwith-glut-of-food-as-coronavirus-closes-restaurants-11586439722 [14] wolf, c.a., novakovic, a.m., stephenson, m.w., 2021. covid-19 and the u.s. dairy supply chain. choices. 36(3), 1-8. available from: https://www. choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/agricultural-market-response-to-covid-19/covid19-and-the-us-dairy-supply-chain [15] mueller, w.f., marion, b.w., 2000. market power in the cheese industry: further evidence. review of industrial organization. 17, 177-191. [16] arnade, c., gopinath, m., pick, d., 2007. measuring the degree of retail competition in us cheese markets. journal of agricultural & food industrial organization. 5(1). doi: https://doi.org/10.2202/1542-0485.1151 [17] church, j., ware, r., 2000. industrial organization: a strategic approach. mcgraw-hill: new york. [18] haddon, h. america can’t move its cheese. the wall street journal, 2018 dec 17. available from: https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-cant-move-itscheese-11545042600 [19] macdonald, j.m., law, j., mosheim, r., 2020. consolidation in u.s. dairy farming [internet]. available from: https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/98901/err-274.pdf [20] bolotova, y.v., 2020. price discovery in the united states dairy industry. journal of agricultural & food industrial organization. 20(2), 83-97. doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/jafio-2019-0002 [21] tejeda, h.a., kim, m.k., 2021. dynamic price relationships and price discovery among cheese markets. international food and agribusiness management review. 24(1), 1-13. doi: https://doi:org/10.22434/ifamr2019.0206 [22] kim, d., cotterill, r.w., 2008. cost pass‐through in differentiated product markets: the case of us processed cheese. the journal of industrial economics. 56(1), 32-48. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6451.2008.00331.x [23] lopez, r.a., he, x., azzam, a., 2018. stochastic frontier estimation of market power in the food industries. journal of agricultural economics. 69(1), 3-17. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12219 [24] dairy mandatory market reporting [internet]. u.s. department of agriculture (usda), agricultural marketing service (ams); 2020 [cited 2020 may 13]. available from: https://www.ams.usda.gov/ rules-regulations/mmr/dmr [25] dewey, c. america’s cheese stockpile just hit an alltime high. the washington post, 2018 jun 28. available from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ wonk/wp/2018/06/28/americas-cheese-stockpilejust-hit-an-all-time-high https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.208403 https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/dairy-data/ https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/dairy-data/ https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartid=105777 https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartid=105777 https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartid=105777 https://www.npr.org/2019/01/09/683339929/nobody-is-moving-our-cheese-american-surplus-reaches-record-high https://www.npr.org/2019/01/09/683339929/nobody-is-moving-our-cheese-american-surplus-reaches-record-high https://www.npr.org/2019/01/09/683339929/nobody-is-moving-our-cheese-american-surplus-reaches-record-high https://www.npr.org/2019/01/09/683339929/nobody-is-moving-our-cheese-american-surplus-reaches-record-high https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/milk-cost-of-production-estimates/ https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/milk-cost-of-production-estimates/ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-cheddar-and-other-cheese-piling-up-in-the-us-as-trade-slows-and-tastes-change-2018-12-17 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-cheddar-and-other-cheese-piling-up-in-the-us-as-trade-slows-and-tastes-change-2018-12-17 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-cheddar-and-other-cheese-piling-up-in-the-us-as-trade-slows-and-tastes-change-2018-12-17 https://www.fb.org/market-intel/largest-decline-in-u.s.-dairy-farms-in15-plus-years-in-2019 https://www.fb.org/market-intel/largest-decline-in-u.s.-dairy-farms-in15-plus-years-in-2019 https://www.idfa.org/federal-milk-marketing-orders https://www.idfa.org/federal-milk-marketing-orders https://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/moa/dairy https://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/moa/dairy https://www.wsj.com/articles/farmers-deal-with-glut-of-food-as-coronavirus-closes-restaurants-11586439722 https://www.wsj.com/articles/farmers-deal-with-glut-of-food-as-coronavirus-closes-restaurants-11586439722 https://www.wsj.com/articles/farmers-deal-with-glut-of-food-as-coronavirus-closes-restaurants-11586439722 https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/agricultural-market-response-to-covid-19/covid-19-and-the-us-dairy-supply-chain https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/agricultural-market-response-to-covid-19/covid-19-and-the-us-dairy-supply-chain https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/agricultural-market-response-to-covid-19/covid-19-and-the-us-dairy-supply-chain https://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/agricultural-market-response-to-covid-19/covid-19-and-the-us-dairy-supply-chain https://doi.org/10.2202/1542-0485.1151 https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-cant-move-its-cheese-11545042600 https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-cant-move-its-cheese-11545042600 https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/98901/err-274.pdf https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/98901/err-274.pdf https://doi.org/10.1515/jafio-2019-0002 https://doi:org/10.22434/ifamr2019.0206 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6451.2008.00331.x https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12219 https://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/mmr/dmr https://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/mmr/dmr https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/28/americas-cheese-stockpile-just-hit-an-all-time-high https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/28/americas-cheese-stockpile-just-hit-an-all-time-high https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/28/americas-cheese-stockpile-just-hit-an-all-time-high https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/28/americas-cheese-stockpile-just-hit-an-all-time-high 45 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 [26] hobson, j. make america grate again? there’s 1.4 billion pounds of surplus cheese in the u.s. boston’s npr news station, 2019 jan 8. available from: https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2019/01/08/ cheese-surplus-united-states [27] pesaran, m.h., shin, y., smith, r.j., 2001. bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. journal of applied econometrics. 16(3), 289326. [28] pesaran, h., shin, y., 1999. an autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegration analysis. econometrics and economic theory in the 20th century: the ragnar frisch centennial symposium. cambridge university press: cambridge, uk. [29] kripfganz, s., schneider, d.c. (editors), 2016. ardl: stata module to estimate autoregressive distributed lag models. stata conference; 2016 jul 28-29; chicago. stata users group. [30] greene, w., 2000. econometric analysis, 4th edition. prentice hall: hoboken. https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2019/01/08/cheese-surplus-united-states https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2019/01/08/cheese-surplus-united-states 17 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.425 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae carcass traits, organ proportion and bio-economic cost benefits analysis of broiler chickens fed different dietary plant protein sources in sorghum-based diet agida, c. a.1* onunkwo, d. n.1 ezenyilimba, b. n.2 afam-ibezim, e. m.1 ukonu, a. b.1 john, u. e.1 adje, c. i.3 1. college of animal science and animal production, michael okpara university of agriculture, umudike, abia state, nigeria 2. department of animal science, faculty of agriculture, nnamdi azikiwe university, awka, nigeria 3. department of animal science, faculty of agriculture, university of port harcourt, nigeria article info abstract article history received: 21 june 2021 accepted: 20 july 2021 published online: 31 july 2021 a 56-day study was carried out to evaluate the carcass characteristics and organ proportions of broiler chickens fed sorghum-based diets with varying plant protein. a total of 120 day-old broiler chickens from a reputable and disease free farm were used for this study. there were four treatments, each having thirty broiler birds replicated thrice with ten broiler birds per replicate using a completely randomized design (crd). the broiler birds were offered feed and water ad libitum. the growth parameters were taken on weekly basis. carcass evaluation was carried out at the end of the trial. one bird per replicate was randomly selected, fasted over-night and slaughtered by severing the jugular vein. after scalding in warm water for about a minute, the feathers were manually plucked. each bird was cut into parts for carcass evaluation. the relative weights of the cut parts were as a percentage of dressed weight. the internal organs, such as heart, kidney, gizzard/proventriculus were all weighed separately and recorded using electric micrometer (3000g weighing gauge). the findings from this study showed that all the carcass parameters considered showed significant differences (p<0.05). birds fed diet 3 gave the best live weight, slaughtered weight, defeathered weight, dressed weight and commensurate cut-parts. soybean (whether cake or full-fat) demonstrate superiority over groundnut cake and cashew nut cake. birds fed diet 3 gave the highest value of thigh, breast -cut, drumstick and wings, while birds fed diets 2, 1 and 4 gave less. the organ proportions of broiler chickens fed different dietary plant sources have all the parameters significantly difference (p<0.05), except the lungs though without any definite pattern. average weight gain and feed conversion ratio were better (p<0.05) among birds fed diet 2, and 3. cost benefits analysis per kilogram in naira terms for birds fed different plant protein sources in a sorghum-based diets were significant (p<0.05) among treatment levels. least cost per kg feed was obtained in diet 1 (p<0.05). cost of weight gained was (p<0.05) low in t1. cost of feed consumed was low for diet t1 and t3. revenue, gross margin and cost benefit ratio estimated were found to high (p<0.05) among t2 and t3. broiler chickens fed diet 3 gave the best parameters. the actual contributions of the experiment, is to alternatively replace corn with sorghum completely at least cost with optimum performance. keywords: carcass characteristics organ proportions cashew nut cake groundnut cake soyabean sorghum broiler birds *corresponding author: agida, c. a., college of animal science and animal production, michael okpara university of agriculture, umudike, abia state, nigeria; email: agidachrisagboje@gmail.com; agboje.agida@mouau.edu.ng 18 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 1. introduction the rising cost of poultry feeds have continued to be a major problem in developing countries as feed cost is about 65 to 70% of the total cost of production (onunkwo et al., 2019) and poultry industry has suffered more than any other livestock industry as a result of this. cereal grains constitute the major source of energy in poultry feeds in the tropics (oluyemi and robert 2000). cereal grains, especially maize form the bulk of energy in poultry feeds are in short supply as a result of industrial and human competition. this has resulted in competition between human and animals for available feed resources, and hence high cost of animal production. pressure on maize has been on the increase worldwide (onunkwo et al., 2018) and this trend requires serious diversification of energy feed stuff for poultry. sorghum (sorghumi bicolor) is a crop which is similar in composition to maize and can be successfully cultivated in the semi-arid regions of asia and africa and it is cheaper and more readily available than maize (douglas et al., 1993). a comparative increment in demand for essential ingredients such as maize, soybeans meal, sorghum grains, groundnut cake and fish meal by man and animals has further exacerbated the high cost of compounded conventional feeds for poultry in nigeria and the world over (jaji, et al., 2011). the sourcing least cost alternative feed stuff, which are mostly waste not consume by humans and are readily available and affordable as against expensive conventional ones in the animal agriculture has been suggested (agida, et al., 2019a). this will be a higher percentage alleviate global food crisis and ameliorate food security (anigbogu et al., 2020; agida, et al., 2019b). demand for maize grains between man, industries and livestocks has been on the increase (agida, et al., 2019b; olomu, 2011). these have further been exacerbated during the 2020 covid-19 pandemic year, where agricultural activities were at an almost completely lock down. hence it is necessary to evaluate of the carcass characteristics of birds fed different plant protein sources (groundnut cake, cashew nut cake, soyabean meal and soyabean cake) in a sorghum-based diet. 2. materials and method this study was carried out in the poultry unit of the teaching and research farm, michael okpara university of agriculture, umudike, abia state. umudike is located on latitude 05o 21’ n and longitude 07o 33’e, with an elevation of about 112m above sea level. the location has an annual rainfall of 177 2,000mm per annum, (april to october) and a short period of dry season (november to march) with a relative humidity of about 50-90% and monthly temperature range of 17oc – 36oc (nrcri, 2019). a total of 120day-old ross strained unsexed chicks were weighed and randomly allotted to four equal treatment groups (t1, t2, t3 and t4) each having 30 chicks. each treatment was replicated three times of 10 chicks per replicate. the birds were offered feed and water ad libitum in a deep litter pen. carcass evaluation was carried out at the end of the feeding trial. one bird per replicate was randomly selected, fasted overnight and slaughtered by severing the jugular vein. after scalding in warm water for about a minute, the feathers were manually plucked. each bird was cut into parts for carcass evaluation according to (ojewola et al., 2001). the relative weights of the cut parts are as a percentage of dressed weight. the internal organs, such as heart, kidney, gizzard/proventriculus were all weighed separately and recorded using electric micrometer 3000g weighing gauge. performance cost benefits analysis was computed by assessment of each of the feed cost per ingredient purchased in naira value per kg. cost of kg feed equal total cost of 1 kg of feed stuff. cost of a kg weight gain equal feed conversion ratio multiply total feed consumed. cost of production equal cost per kg weight gain multiply mean weight gain. revenue estimate is equal price of 1 kg of table sized broiler chicken multiply mean weight gain. gross margin estimate is equal revenue estimated minus cost of production estimated. average daily feed intake in grams is total feed intake divide by the number of birds per total number of experimental days. average daily weight gain in grams is the aggregate sum of the weight gain in a treatment replicate divide by the total numbers of experimental birds per days of experimental trials. all data generated were subjected to analysis of variance (anova) and treatment means that were significantly different were separated using duncan’s multiple range test (duncan, 1955). 3. results and discussion the results of the carcass characteristics of birds fed different plant protein sources in a sorghum-based diet are presented in table 2. the result showed that all the carcass parameters considered showed a significant difference (p<0.05). the poorer values exhibited by birds fed diets 4 and 1 could be attributed to the different abilities of the test diets to support tissue deposition. nonetheless, birds fed diet 3 gave the best live weight, slaughtered weight, defeathered weight, dressed weight and commensurate cut-parts. this is closely followed by the birds fed diet 2. the implication of this is that soybean (whether cake or doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.425 19 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 full-fat) demonstrate superiority over groundnut cake and cashew nut cake. the differences obtained in the cut-parts values may be attributed to similar reasons considering the highest (significant values) of thigh, wing, breast-cut and back-cut for birds fed diet 3 when compared to diets 2, 1 and 4; diet 3 is simply a diet of choice. the result further showed that cut-parts (drumstick, thigh and wing) bore a relationship with carcass weight-supporting the view of (ojewola and longe, 2000) that weights, volumes and dimensions of broiler parts were directly related to the carcass weight. this is also in agreement with the findings of (ojewola and ewa, 2005), who confirmed that heavier birds produced a greater eviscerated yield. this is a further confirmation of the fact that plump appearance in broiler was associated with high percentage of edible meat. birds fed diet 3 gave the highest value of thigh, breast-cut, drumstick and wings. however, birds fed diet 2, 1 and 4 gave less. this shows the ability of test diet (t3) to support tissue deposition more than the others. the back-cut of birds fed diet 3 also gave the highest value when compared to others. the results of organ proportions of broiler chickens fed table 1. gross percent composition of experimental diet ingredients t1 t2 t3 t4 sorghum 63.30 63.30 63.30 63.30 groundnut cake 30 soyabean meal (full fat) 30 soyabean cake 30 cashew nut cake 30 fish meal (local) 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 bone meal 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 salt 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 vitamin premix 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 methionine 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 lysine 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 calculated analysis percent crude protein 22.26 21.36 21.36 22.26 me (kcal/kg) 3030 3168 3048 3198 calorie protein ratio 1.136 1.148 1.143 1.144 *premix supply per kg broiler diet: vitamin a 1500iu, vitamin d3 13000iu, thiamin 2mg, riboflavin 6mg, pyridoxine 4mg, niacin 40mg, cobalamine 0.05g, biotin 0.08mg, chlorine chloride 0.05g, manganese 0.096g, zinc 0.06g, iron 0.024g, copper 40mg, iodine 0.014g, selenium 0.24mg, cobalt 0.024mg and antioxidant 0.125g. table 2. carcass characteristics of birds fed different plant protein sources in a sorghum-based diets parameters t1 t2 t3 t4 sem live weight 1000.00b 1892.67a 2016.67a 900.00b 153.67 slaughtered weight 955.00bc 1866.67a 1983.33ab 850.00c 147.29 defeathered weight 908.33b 1750.00a 1818.33a 778.33b 144.69 dressed weight 751.67b 1610.00a 1663.33a 681.67b 140.69 shank 56.00b 73.67 87.67a 42.33b 5.52 thigh 195.00b 228.67a 236.33a 115.33c 39.46 breast-cut 212.33c 354.67b 478.67a 152.33c 39.46 back-cut 139.00c 311.33a 281.33ab 214.33b 21.87 drumstick 102.67b 179.00a 193.33a 77.67b 15.27 wings 88.00b 170.67a 181.33a 74.67b 14.73 head 41.67b 50.33a 55.67a 32.00c 2.85 neck 66.33ab 82.33a 89.00a 47.67c 5.77 a,b,c,d values with different superscripts on same row are significantly different (p<0.05) doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.425 20 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 different dietary plant protein sources in sorghum-based diet are shown in table 3. all the parameters showed significant differences (p<0.05), except the lungs though without any definite pattern. the lowest value of kidney weight in birds fed diet 4 is understandable knowing that cashew nut meal has known to be high in toxic substances like some other oil seed (odunsi, 1999). thus, the kidney-based enzymes may exhibit reduced activities. average feed intake was not significant (p>0.05) across treatments in table 4. it shows that energy and protein requirements were made as obtained from the formulated diets. average daily weight gain and feed conversion ration were found to be better (p<0.05) for birds fed diets t3 and t2 respectively, this is attributed to efficiency of utilization of its dietary protein, better amino acids profile and a balance dietary composition as regards protein-energy ratio and other unexplainable factors, although particle size on sorghum-based diets fed broiler chickens did not affect the performance of the birds as observed by (fernandes et al., 2013). cost benefits analysis as presented in table 4, where significant (p<0.05) across treatment levels. birds fed diet t1 showed significantly (p<0.05) lower cost/kilogram of feed. the decline in cost, was as a result of cheaper cost of 1 kilogram groundnut cake to other plant protein source used in the experiment. cost of a kilogram weight gained was found to be cheaper (p<0.05) among birds fed diet 3, and a higher (p<0.05) cost was obtained for birds fed diet 4. the high cost was due to high cost of cashew nut cake which is relatively very expensive as the demand for cashew nut is very high. contrary to previous findings by (jaji et al., 2011; taiwo et al., 2015), cashew reject meal (crm) fed to broilers and layers chicken, showed low economic cost. as maize and soyabean are the major sources of energy and protein in the poultry and livestock industry, ways of having 100% replacement for corn and soyabean as energy and protein sources with alternative feed source are been sorted for, which form the basis for its comparative studies. as the quest for a cheaper alternative feed sources are high, the cost of broiler production per kilogram of weight produced differ significantly (p<0.05) across treatments. a higher cost was obtained in birds fed table 3. organ proportions of broiler chicken feed different dietary plant protein sources in sorghum-based diets response criteria t1 t2 t3 t4 sem lungs 14.00 15.00 15.00 15.67 0.66 heart 8.73b 9.33b 11.00a 8.50b 0.33 liver 22.00c 37.00a 47.00a 18.00c 3.56 gizzard 23.00c 34.67b 40.00a 19.00d 2.59 crop 23.00c 11.00ab 11.33a 7.00ab 0.91 intestine 63.67b 117.33a 108.67a 56.33ab 8.50 proventriculus 4.00b 7.00a 7.67a 5.33ab 0.56 spleen 0.33b 2.33a 1.67a 0.00b 0.32 kidney 5.33b 11.33a 14.00a 5.67b 1.22 a,b,c,d values with different superscripts on same row are significantly different (p<0.05) table 4. performance/cost benefits analysis of broiler chicken feed different dietary plant protein sources in sorghum-based diets parameters t1 t2 t3 t4 sem average feed weight gain 85.04 82.19 83.32 83.05 0.60 average daily weight gain 17.86b 33.80a 36.01a 16.07c 5.21 feed conversion ratio 4.80b 2.43a 2.31a 5.17b 0.76 cost/kg of feed (₦) 121.07a 186.17b 134.57c 319.07d 4.63 cost of a kg weight gain (₦) 0.58c 0.45b 0.31a 1.65d 0.305 cost of production/kg (₦) 10.38b 6.29a 11.19b 26.51d 8.875 cost/kg feed consumed (₦) 10.38a 15.29c 11.19a 26.51d 3.715 gross margin (₦) 4.80c 13.44b 19.41a -12.85d 7.02 cost benefit ratio/kg (₦) 1.46c 1.88b 2.74a 0.52d 0.46 a,b,c,d values with different superscripts on same row are significantly different (p<0.05), the revenue estimates was computed at (₦)850/kg table sized broiler chicken. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.425 21 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 diet 4 when compare with other treatments. cost of feed consumed per kilogram was better (p<0.05) among birds fed diets t1 and t2 respectively. diet t4 was found to be higher (p<0.05) and relatively very expensive. this was relative to the cost of a kilogram cashew nut and poor dietary utilization as a result of poor efficiency of feed conversion. revenue in naira per kilogram had higher (p<0.05) amount obtained when birds were fed diet t3 and t2, with lower (p<0.05) revenue estimated for birds fed diets t1 and t4. it is common among birds that the feed conversion efficiency clearly defines their overall performance and has a direct reflection on their cost benefits in relation to weight gain for every gram of feed consumed. gross margin as indication of estimated profit was found to be highest (p<0.05) among birds fed diet t3. the gross margin showed (p<0.05) negative amount in naira for birds on t4. it indicates loss of investment for birds fed experimental diets t4. this further, disclose a high cost of test plant protein source that reflected a comparative demand between man and animal creating a direct cost effect on using such plant protein source as replacement for soyabean. taiwo et al., (2015) and jaji et al., (2006) ascertain the use of cashew reject meal (crm) as a better alternative for economic gain in feeding poultry than the accepted kernel, due the high demand between man than an animal on the side of accepted kernel. freitas et al., (2006) reported increasing economic efficiency ratio and a reduction in cost when cashew nut meal (cnm) was fed to broilers at 25% inclusion levels. gomes et al., (2020) on feeding growing rabbits, also obtained low cost and economic gained in feeding 5% cashew nut meal replacement levels on soybean base diets. cost benefit ration showed (p<0.05) quick return and attractive investment figure for birds fed diet t3 followed by t2, with a discouraging investment figure for t4. the values buttress the facts that cost benefit ratio served as an indicator for investment finders. it shows that, to every 1 digit of money spent on a commodity, a certain value to profit gain or expected must be obtained, which must not be less or equal to 1. 4. conclusions broiler chickens fed diet 3 which is the diet containing 30% soybean meal gave the best performance both in carcass quality, organ proportion and bio-economics cost benefit analysis, while diet 4 containing 30% cashew nut meal has poor performance. high cost of cashew kernel in nigeria discourage its uses as alternative plant protein source, hence its high demand by man and scarcity made it very expensive. references [1] agida, c. a., ukoha, o. a., ukachukwu, s. n. and amaefule, k. u. (2019). proximate, mineral analysis and growth performance of broiler chickens fed diets containing palm oil mill effluent. nigerian agricultural journal, 50(2): pp 81-86. [2] agida, c. a., w., nathaniel, j. ukoha, o. a. and ukachukwu, s. n. (2019). haematological and serological indices of broiler finisher chickens fed diets with palm oil mill effluent as replacement for maize. nigerian agricultural journal, 50(2): pp 38-44. [3] douglas, j.h., sullivan, t.w., gonalez, n.j and beck, m.m. (1993). differential age response of turkeys to protein and sorghum tannin levels. poultry science, 72:1944 -1951. [4] duncan, d.b. (1955). multiple range and multiple f tests. biometrics, 11:1-42. [5] freitas e.r, fuentes m.f.f, santos júnior a.s, guerreiro m.e.f, espíndola g.b. (2006). farelo da castanha de caju em rações para frangos de corte. pesquisa agropecuária brasileira, 41(6):1001-1006. [6] gomes, t. r., freitas, e. r., watanabe, p. h., sousa, a. r and ferreira, a. c. s. (2020). cashew nut meal (anacardium occidentale l.) in the feeding of growing rabbits. zootecnica. ciênc. anim. bras. 21. https://doi.org/10.1590/1809-6891v21e-61927. [7] international journal of poultry science 4(10) 765 771. [8] jaji, m. f. o., onigemo, m. a. and adeyemo, m. a. (2011). economics of substituting cashew nut waste for maize in the growth performance of broiler chicken. proceedings of international journal of agricultural economics and extension, vol. 5 [9] nrcri (2019). agro-meterological unit, national root crops research institute, umudike, umuahia, nigeria. [10] odunsi a.a (1999). feeding values of cashew kernel meal in the diet of the finishing broiler chickens. archivos de. zootechnia 51. 423 429. [11] ojewola g.s and longe o.g (2000) evaluation of the productive and economic efficiencies of cowpea hall and maize offal inclusion in layers ration. nigerian journal of animal production 27 (1) 35 39. [12] ojewola g.s and ewa u. e (2005) response of growing broiler to varying dietary plant protein. international journal of poultry science 4(10) 765 771. [13] ojewola, g.s. abasiekong s.f. and nwachukwu, c. s. (2001). methionine supplementation in diets: productive efficiency, carcass characteristics and doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.425 22 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 economics of growing indigenous turkey. tropical journal of animal science; 4:161 170. [14] oluyemi, j.a and roberts f.a. (2000). poultry production in warm wet climates macmillan publishers. london. pp 132. [15] onunkwo, d. n, amaduruonye, w and daniel-igwe, g (2018). assessment of abattoir wastes (bovine blood and rumen content) on carcass characteristics, internal organs and organoleptic properties of broiler birds. nigerian agricultural journal. 49(1): 201-209. [16] onunkwo, d. n., anyaegbu, b. c., ezike, j. c and daniel-igwe, g (2019). dietary substitution of soya bean meal with processed african yam bean meal as protein source in the diets of finisher broilers. nigerian journal of animal production, 46(2):118-127. [17] taiwo, o. a., akinyinka, o. a and taye, o. a. (2015). cashew reject meal in diets of laying chickens: nutritional and economic suitability. journal of animal science and technology, 57:17. doi: 10.1186/s40781.015.0051-7. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.425 46 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://journals.nasspublishing.com/index.php/rwae copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: k. nirmal ravi kumar, department of agricultural economics, agricultural college, bapatla, acharya ng ranga agricultural university (angrau), andhra pradesh, 522034, india; email: kn.ravikumar@angrau.ac.in doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.880 received: 25 june 2023; received in revised form: 26 july 2023; accepted: 7 august 2023; published: 14 august 2023 citation: kumar, k.n.r., reddy, m.j.m., shafiwu, a.b., et al., 2023. impact of farmer producer organizations on price and poverty alleviation of smallholder dry chillies farmers in india. research on world agricultural economy. 4(3), 880. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.880 research article impact of farmer producer organizations on price and poverty alleviation of smallholder dry chillies farmers in india k. nirmal ravi kumar1* m. jagan mohan reddy2 adinan bahahudeen shafiwu3 a. amaraendar reddy4 1.department of agricultural economics, agricultural college, bapatla, acharya ng ranga agricultural university (angrau), andhra pradesh, 522034, india 2.jayashankar telangana state agricultural university, rajendranagar, hyderabad, 500030, india 3. department of agricultural and food economics, university for development studies, p.o. box tl 1350, ghana 4. icar-centre research institute for dryland agriculture (icar-crida), santoshnagar, hyderabad, 500059, india abstract: this study investigates the impact of farmer producer organizations (fpos) on smallholder dry chilli farmers in guntur district, andhra pradesh, with a focus on price realization and poverty alleviation. two specific fpos, red chilli farmer producer organisation and spoorthi chilli producers company ltd., from the guntur district of andhra pradesh were chosen for the study based on their substantial business turnover and comprehensive backward and forward linkages to their farmer-members. the smallholder farmers were stratified into two groups viz., treated (161) and untreated (n = 315) based on the fpo membership criterion. the foster-greer-thorbecke model revealed that the poverty incidence among untreated farmers was recorded at 0.691, which was approximately 49 percent higher than the poverty incidence of treated farmers (0.352). the depth and severity of poverty were also greater among untreated farmers, with a poverty depth of 0.494 compared to the lower value of 0.126 observed among treated farmers. the results from endogenous switching regression model revealed a significant positive relationship between fpo membership and both price realization and poverty alleviation. farmers with fpo membership experienced 2.11 percent higher prices and 39.14 percent higher annual agricultural income compared to untreated. factors such as education, adherence to good agricultural practices, farm experience, access to improved inputs, and credit significantly influenced fpo membership. the study concludes that fpo membership plays a crucial role in improving the standard of living for smallholder dry chilli farmers by increasing prices and income. so, this research sheds light on the significance of fpos in enhancing the economic well-being of smallholder dry chilli farmers in andhra pradesh. keywords: farmer producer organizations; andhra pradesh; endogenous switching regression model; impact assessment; transitional heterogeneity http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.880 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i3.880 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0041-572x 47 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 1. introduction in india, the agriculture sector currently contributes approximately 13.39 percent to the gross domestic product (gdp) while employing about 55 percent of the total workforce, indicating its significant role in the economy. as per the agricultural census of 2015-2016, there were over 145 million farm holdings in the country. notably, marginal and small farm holdings constituted a substantial proportion, accounting for 86.21 percent of the total indicating the dominance of small-scale farmers in the agricultural landscape [1]. the share of small and marginal holdings has experienced a slight increase from 84.97 percent in 2010-2011 to 86.21 percent in 2015-2016, amounting to approximately 126 million holdings. this trend indicates a gradual decline in per capita land size over the past five years, primarily attributed to land subdivision and fragmentation. these have contributed to the persistence of poverty in the country leading to a decline in crop productivity, inefficient resource allocation, limited access to credit, the prevalence of subsistence farming, land disputes etc. [2]. the recent estimates revealed that approximately 10.2 percent of the population, or around 145.71 million people, were living below poverty line (bpl) (www.scroll.in (10th june 2023)) and the percentage of the total population living bpl in andhra pradesh was 12.31 percent (https://www.newindianexpress.com, 10th june 2023). in view of these, alleviating poverty among farmers is crucial for ensuring food security, promoting rural development, stabilizing the economy, reducing overall poverty, fostering social stability, and pursuing sustainable development goals. the formation of farmer producer organizations (fpos) can significantly contribute to poverty alleviation among farmers by promoting collective action, enhancing market access, improving access to credit, fostering knowledge sharing, and advocating for policy reforms. thus, they help farmers improve their income, enhance productivity, mitigate risks, and build sustainable agricultural enterprises, ultimately leading to improved living standards and reduced poverty among farming communities [3,4]. the xii plan working group (formed as part of india’s five-year plans) associated with the policy of fpos in india emphasized that small and marginal farmers encounter significant challenges in both production and marketing within the agri-business sector. these challenges include low output, limited marketable surplus, inadequate participation in price discovery mechanisms, weak vertical and horizontal linkages, restricted market access, lack of price information, insufficient training, and limited access to finance. among these challenges, the issue of market access is particularly prominent among smallholder farmers [5]. hence, the current imperative lies in optimizing benefits through effective and efficient aggregation models, especially by integrating these smallholders into agricultural markets. such a transformation would lead to a more market-oriented agricultural production system, economies of scale, and higher income for smallholder farmers, ultimately resulting in more inclusive growth. in this context, one of the significant interventions promoted by the government of india is the farmer producer company (fpc), which is registered under the companies act. fpcs have emerged as the most effective form of fpos in providing various benefits to farmer-members compared to other aggregation formats such as cooperative societies and farmer interest groups. ministry of agriculture and farmers welfare, government of india, has identified fpos registered under the special provisions of the companies act, 1956 (amended in 2002) and the companies act, 2013, as the most suitable institutional form for aggregating farmers. forming a fpc under the companies act, 2013 facilitates capacity building among farmers, encourages them to work together, share knowledge and resources, and learn from each other’s experiences. this will mobilize farmers towards member-owned fpos to enhance production, productivity, and profitability across the country [6]. this initiative aims to empower farmers and enable them to access better market opportunities and improve their overall socio-economic wellbeing (figure 1). dry chillies are a significant crop cultivated on 0.73 million hectares in india during 2020-2021 [1]. among the states, andhra pradesh ranked first in dry chilli production during the same period [7]. guntur, located in andhra pradesh, is renowned as asia’s largest market for dry chillies. the agricultural produce market committee (apmc) in guntur receives dry chillies from various production regions in andhra pradesh as well as from madhya pradesh. notably, the production trends in madhya pradesh significantly impact the prices of dry chillies in the guntur market. guntur district holds a comparative advantage over other districts due to factors like labor availability, specialization, mechanization, and irrigation facilities. enhancing dry chilli productivity is crucial for promoting farmers’ profitability and development in this region. to support this objective, the government of andhra pradesh has facilitated the establishment of six fpos that specifically focus on dry chillies in guntur district. however, the production of dry chillies in guntur predominantly relies on smallholder farmers, who constitute 92 percent of the total number of farmers in the region. these small-scale farms face challenges in both production and marketing of https://www.newindianexpress.com 48 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 their produce [7]. previous studies on fpos have primarily focused on aspects like the growth of farmer-members, establishment of linkages, transaction volumes, and prices realized for the produce [8-10]. however, these studies have not provided a comprehensive assessment of the overall impact of fpos. therefore, this study aims to contribute to the existing literature by delving into the factors that drive smallholder dry chillies farmers’ decision to engage with fpos. it seeks to examine socio-economic characteristics, resource accessibility, market linkages, and institutional support as determinants of farmers’ participation. by analyzing these factors, the research can offer valuable insights into the factors influencing farmers’ involvement in collective agricultural initiatives. furthermore, the study seeks to assess the impact of fpos on the achievement of remunerative prices and poverty alleviation among smallholder farmers. this analysis holds significance in the literature on collective marketing initiatives, providing insights into their role in improving farmers’ income and overall economic well-being. 2. review of literature the studies examined in the review collectively showcase the transformative potential of fpos on farmers’ livelihoods, productivity, and sustainability. these findings underscore the need for a comprehensive approach to agricultural development, integrating various interventions and leveraging diverse agricultural models. ranjit et al. (2022) [9] emphasized that fpos offer substantial promise for small and marginal farmers in india. through effective collective action, fpos empower farmers, enhance market access, and reduce transaction costs. however, addressing the capital constraints faced by fpos remains a significant challenge. policy-makers must prioritize the development of enabling environments, including improved access to finance, capacity-building support, and institutional reforms, to fully unlock the potential of fpos. this will pave the way for inclusive and sustainable agricultural development, elevating the livelihoods of small and marginal farmers and fostering overall rural prosperity. in the study by manaswi [11] et al. (2020), the benefits of fpos in organic chilli production are underscored. fpo membership is associated with higher gross returns, reduced transaction costs, and increased technical efficiency. these findings highlight the importance of collective action, improved market linkages, and streamlined value chains through fpos, enabling farmers to secure better prices and access to markets. barun and sunil [12] (2019) shed light on the impact of improved agricultural practices on farm productivity. they emphasize the significance of public-private partnerships in promoting practices such as seed distribution, bio-fertilizer production, and capacity-building. these partnerships, which combine technical knowledge, resources, and infrastructure, facilitate the adoption of sustainable farming practices. as a result, farmers experience increased productivity and resilience in the face of challenges like climate change. john et al. (2019) [13] explore the relationship between contract farming and chilli productivity in ghana. their study reveals that contract farming has a positive effect on productivity and gross margins. educated farmers, larger farm sizes, and integrated soil fertility management are identified as factors influencing contract farming participation. this suggests the need to target and support educated farmers, enabling them to engage in contract farming and potentially improve productivity and market figure 1. operations of fpo. 49 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 access. in the dairy sector, anjani et al. (2018) [14] highlight the positive effects of cooperative membership on milk yield, net return, and adoption of food safety measures. cooperative membership provides farmers with improved infrastructure, technology, and collective marketing opportunities. these benefits contribute to increased income and the adoption of practices that ensure food safety and quality. wondimagegn (2016) [15] explores the impact of improved storage innovations on food security and welfare. the study demonstrates that households using improved storage technologies enjoy higher dietary diversity scores, indicating improved access to a variety of nutritious foods. this underscores the significance of appropriate storage practices in preserving agricultural produce, reducing post-harvest losses, and enhancing food security. lastly, tamer et al. (2015) [16] focus on the impact of zero tillage on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. their study highlights the benefits of conservative tillage, including increased net income and per capita wheat consumption. conservative tillage practices improve soil health, water retention, and crop productivity while minimizing environmental degradation. promoting these sustainable agricultural practices enhances farmers’ livelihoods and contributes to broader ecological benefits. taken together, these studies demonstrate that a combination of approaches, including the formation of fpos, adoption of improved agricultural practices, engagement in contract farming, participation in cooperatives, and implementation of innovative technologies, can significantly improve farmers’ incomes, productivity, and sustainability. these findings underscore the importance of integrating multiple interventions tailored to the local context, addressing the complex challenges faced by farmers, and promoting inclusive and resilient agricultural systems. 3. materials and methods 3.1 data and research method in the initial stage of the study, the state of andhra pradesh and guntur district were purposefully chosen based on their potential for dry chillies production and the presence of a significant number of functioning fpos involved in its production and marketing (figure 2). in the second stage, two specific fpos, namely red chilli farmer producer organisation located in machavaram mandal and spoorthi chilli producers company ltd located in edlapadu mandal, were purposively selected. these fpos were chosen due to their substantial business turnover and their ability to provide comprehensive backward and forward linkages to their farmer-members. two sampling frames were created, one consisting of the lists of farmer-members from the two selected fpos (treated group) and the other consisting of non-members (untreated group). so, farmers in the study area were then stratified into treated and untreated groups based on their fpo membership status. in the third stage, smallholder dry chilli farmers were selected in proportion to the number of farmers in each stratum based on probability proportional to the number sampling technique. this ensured that the selected sample of farmers in guntur was representative and included both treated (n = 161) and untreated (n = 315) categories based on the fpo membership criterion. a structured schedule was employed to gather the required cross-section data from sample farmers on covariates and outcome variables, as shown in table 1, specifically related to the kharif season of 2022-2023. prior to the actual survey, the schedule underwent a pre-testing phase in non-sampled villages to assess the suitability and effectiveness of the schedule in gathering the required data and to evaluate the proficiency of the enumerators in conducting the survey. the collected comprehensive data sought to provide a holistic understanding of the farmers’ socio-economic context and their engagement in various agricultural practices. further, to analyze the impact of fpo membership on poverty alleviation, only farmers who derived their annual income solely from agricultural sources were included in the sample. this criterion ensured that the analysis focused on smallholder chilli farmers whose livelihoods primarily relied on agriculture. this sampling approach and data collection process allowed for a comprehensive examination of the impact of fpo membership on poverty alleviation among smallholder chilli farmers in the study area. 3.2 tools of analysis a. descriptive statistics: descriptive statistics viz., mean and standard deviation (sd) are employed to analyze and compare the selected variables between treated and untreated farmers. b. estimation of poverty profile (foster-greer–thorbecke (fgt) model): as per the fgt model [17], the poverty profile of the sample farmers is represented below: 9 outcome variables price price realized for dry chillies (rs./quintal of produce transacted) poverty bpl is indicated by the income limit for households ie., ≤ rs.1,20,000/year for rural households in andhra pradesh* primary data regarding annual income derived by both treated and untreated farmers from dry chillies transactions are considered. treatment variablefpo membership decision fpo membership/dummy (1 = member, 0 = non-member) instrumental variable (iv) motiv motivation of farmers to join in fpos/dummy (1 = yes, 0 = no) covariates gnd gender/dummy (1 = male, 0 = female) lhs landholding size (acres) edu education of the farmer/dummy (1 = yes if > 10th class, 0 = no, if < 10th class) gap good agricultural practices/dummy (1 = yes, 0 = no) fe farming experience (years) dtf distance to fpo from village (kilometers) ami access to market information/dummy(1 = yes, 0 = no) aii access to improved inputs at right time/dummy (1 = own land, 0 = no) ate access to extension services/dummy (1 = yes, 0 = no) ativ access to improved dry chillies varieties/dummy (1 = yes, 0 = no) atic access to institutional credit/dummy (1 = yes, 0 = no) * https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/andhra-pradesh-to-raise-incomelimitfor-bpl-category/article30098727.ece 3.2 tools of analysis a. descriptive statistics: descriptive statistics viz., mean and standard deviation (sd) are employed to analyze and compare the selected variables between treated and untreated farmers. b. estimation of poverty profile (foster-greer–thorbecke (fgt) model): as per the fgt model [17], the poverty profile of the sample farmers is represented below: p(α) = (1/n) ∑=1  {( − )/} (1) where ‘n’ is the number of sample farmers (households), ‘yi’ is the income of the ith household, ‘yp’ represents the poverty line indicated by the income limit for households qualifying as a beneficiary under the bpl (ie., ≤ rs.1,20 lakh per year for rural households in andhra pradesh (https://www.business-standard.com), ‘q’ is the number of households bpl, and ‘α’ is the poverty parameter (incidence, gap and severity) which takes the values of 0 (p measures poverty (1) where ‘n’ is the number of sample farmers (households), ‘yi’ is the income of the i th household, ‘yp’ represents the poverty line indicated by the income limit for households qualifying as a beneficiary under the bpl (ie., ≤ rs.1,20 lakh per year for rural households in andhra pradesh (https://www.business-standard.com), ‘q’ is the number https://www.business-standard.com 50 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 of households bpl, and ‘α’ is the poverty parameter (incidence, gap and severity) which takes the values of 0 (p measures poverty head count ratio), 1 (p measures the depth of poverty), and 2 (p measures severity or intensity of poverty). c. esrm approach: in this study, the potential endogeneity issue of fpo membership influencing farmer participation is addressed using the esrm [18]. to verify the exogeneity of the endogenous variable (fpo membership), both the durbin score test and wu-hausman test for endogeneity are conducted. to account for self-selection bias in the decision to join fpos, the study incorporates a selection equation with motiv (a relevant variable) as an instrumental variable for fpo membership. this approach helps address the endogeneity concern by using an instrumental variable that affects fpo membership but is not directly related to the outcome variable of interest. the selection equation used in this study follows the framework [19] as specified below: e𝑖 ∗ = 𝑋𝑖𝛼 + 𝛿𝑖 with m = {1 if m ∗ > 0; = 0 otherwise} (2) figure 2. selection of guntur district, andhra pradesh. table 1. variable types and definitions. variable type abbreviation variables definition outcome variables price price realized for dry chillies (rs./quintal of produce transacted) poverty bpl is indicated by the income limit for households ie., ≤ rs.1,20,000/year for rural households in andhra pradesh* primary data regarding annual income derived by both treated and untreated farmers from dry chillies transactions are considered. treatment variable fpo membership decision fpo membership/dummy (1 = member, 0 = non-member) instrumental variable (iv) motiv motivation of farmers to join in fpos/dummy (1 = yes, 0 = no) covariates gnd gender/dummy (1 = male, 0 = female) lhs landholding size (acres) edu education of the farmer/dummy (1 = yes if > 10th class, 0 = no, if < 10th class) gap good agricultural practices/dummy (1 = yes, 0 = no) fe farming experience (years) dtf distance to fpo from village (kilometers) ami access to market information/dummy(1 = yes, 0 = no) aii access to improved inputs at right time/dummy (1 = own land, 0 = no) ate access to extension services/dummy (1 = yes, 0 = no) ativ access to improved dry chillies varieties/dummy (1 = yes, 0 = no) atic access to institutional credit/dummy (1 = yes, 0 = no) * https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/andhra-pradesh-to-raise-incomelimit-for-bpl-category/article30098727.ece 51 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 for a farmer-member of fpo (m = 1), if m∗ > 0, where m∗ represents the expected benefits of participating in fpo (treated) compared to untreated. the analysis of the impact of fpo membership on the outcome variables (prices and poverty) under the esrm framework proceeds in two stages. in the first stage, a probit model (equation 3a) is used to analyze the determinants of the decision to join fpo. in the second stage, an ols regression with selectivity correction is employed to study the relationship between the outcome variables and a set of explanatory variables, conditional on the fpo membership decision (equation 3b). the two outcome regression equations, conditional on fpo membership, can be expressed as [16]: regime 1 (treated): 𝑦1𝑖 = 𝑥1𝑖𝛽1 + ε1𝑖 if, m = 1 (3a) regime 2 (untreated): 𝑦0𝑖 = 𝑥0𝑖𝛽0 + ε0𝑖 if, m = 0 (3b) where, 𝑦1𝑖 and 𝑦0𝑖 are the outcome variable(s) with and without fpo membership respectively, 𝑥1𝑖 and 𝑥0𝑖 are vectors of exogenous covariates; 𝛽1 and 𝛽0 are vectors of parameters; and ε1𝑖 and ε0𝑖 are random disturbance terms. the error terms are assumed to have the following covariance matrix: 10 head count ratio), 1 (p measures the depth of poverty), and 2 (p measures severity or intensity of poverty). c. esrm approach: in this study, the potential endogeneity issue of fpo membership influencing farmer participation is addressed using the esrm [18]. to verify the exogeneity of the endogenous variable (fpo membership), both the durbin score test and wu-hausman test for endogeneity are conducted. to account for self-selection bias in the decision to join fpos, the study incorporates a selection equation with motiv (a relevant variable) as an instrumental variable for fpo membership. this approach helps address the endogeneity concern by using an instrumental variable that affects fpo membership but is not directly related to the outcome variable of interest. the selection equation used in this study follows the framework [19] as specified below: e∗ =  +  with m = {1 if m ∗ > 0; = 0 otherwise} (2) for a farmer-member of fpo (m = 1), if m∗ > 0, where m∗ represents the expected benefits of participating in fpo (treated) compared to untreated. the analysis of the impact of fpo membership on the outcome variables (prices and poverty) under the esrm framework proceeds in two stages. in the first stage, a probit model (equation 3a) is used to analyze the determinants of the decision to join fpo. in the second stage, an ols regression with selectivity correction is employed to study the relationship between the outcome variables and a set of explanatory variables, conditional on the fpo membership decision (equation 3b). the two outcome regression equations, conditional on fpo membership, can be expressed as [16]: regime 1 (treated): 1 = 11 + 1 if, m = 1 (3a) regime 2 (untreated): 0 = 00 + 0 if, m = 0 (3b) where, 1 and 0 are the outcome variable(s) with and without fpo membership respectively, 1 and 0 are vectors of exogenous covariates; 1 and 0 are vectors of parameters; and 1 and 0 are random disturbance terms. the error terms are assumed to have the following covariance matrix:  , 1,0 = 0 2 10 0 10 1 2 1 0 1 2 (4) where 2 is the variance of the selection equation (equation 4), 0 2 and 1 2 are the variances of the outcome equations for untreated and treated, while 0 and 1 represent the covariance (4) where 10 head count ratio), 1 (p measures the depth of poverty), and 2 (p measures severity or intensity of poverty). c. esrm approach: in this study, the potential endogeneity issue of fpo membership influencing farmer participation is addressed using the esrm [18]. to verify the exogeneity of the endogenous variable (fpo membership), both the durbin score test and wu-hausman test for endogeneity are conducted. to account for self-selection bias in the decision to join fpos, the study incorporates a selection equation with motiv (a relevant variable) as an instrumental variable for fpo membership. this approach helps address the endogeneity concern by using an instrumental variable that affects fpo membership but is not directly related to the outcome variable of interest. the selection equation used in this study follows the framework [19] as specified below: e∗ =  +  with m = {1 if m ∗ > 0; = 0 otherwise} (2) for a farmer-member of fpo (m = 1), if m∗ > 0, where m∗ represents the expected benefits of participating in fpo (treated) compared to untreated. the analysis of the impact of fpo membership on the outcome variables (prices and poverty) under the esrm framework proceeds in two stages. in the first stage, a probit model (equation 3a) is used to analyze the determinants of the decision to join fpo. in the second stage, an ols regression with selectivity correction is employed to study the relationship between the outcome variables and a set of explanatory variables, conditional on the fpo membership decision (equation 3b). the two outcome regression equations, conditional on fpo membership, can be expressed as [16]: regime 1 (treated): 1 = 11 + 1 if, m = 1 (3a) regime 2 (untreated): 0 = 00 + 0 if, m = 0 (3b) where, 1 and 0 are the outcome variable(s) with and without fpo membership respectively, 1 and 0 are vectors of exogenous covariates; 1 and 0 are vectors of parameters; and 1 and 0 are random disturbance terms. the error terms are assumed to have the following covariance matrix:  , 1,0 = 0 2 10 0 10 1 2 1 0 1 2 (4) where 2 is the variance of the selection equation (equation 4), 0 2 and 1 2 are the variances of the outcome equations for untreated and treated, while 0 and 1 represent the covariance is the variance of the selection equation (equation 4), 10 head count ratio), 1 (p measures the depth of poverty), and 2 (p measures severity or intensity of poverty). c. esrm approach: in this study, the potential endogeneity issue of fpo membership influencing farmer participation is addressed using the esrm [18]. to verify the exogeneity of the endogenous variable (fpo membership), both the durbin score test and wu-hausman test for endogeneity are conducted. to account for self-selection bias in the decision to join fpos, the study incorporates a selection equation with motiv (a relevant variable) as an instrumental variable for fpo membership. this approach helps address the endogeneity concern by using an instrumental variable that affects fpo membership but is not directly related to the outcome variable of interest. the selection equation used in this study follows the framework [19] as specified below: e∗ =  +  with m = {1 if m ∗ > 0; = 0 otherwise} (2) for a farmer-member of fpo (m = 1), if m∗ > 0, where m∗ represents the expected benefits of participating in fpo (treated) compared to untreated. the analysis of the impact of fpo membership on the outcome variables (prices and poverty) under the esrm framework proceeds in two stages. in the first stage, a probit model (equation 3a) is used to analyze the determinants of the decision to join fpo. in the second stage, an ols regression with selectivity correction is employed to study the relationship between the outcome variables and a set of explanatory variables, conditional on the fpo membership decision (equation 3b). the two outcome regression equations, conditional on fpo membership, can be expressed as [16]: regime 1 (treated): 1 = 11 + 1 if, m = 1 (3a) regime 2 (untreated): 0 = 00 + 0 if, m = 0 (3b) where, 1 and 0 are the outcome variable(s) with and without fpo membership respectively, 1 and 0 are vectors of exogenous covariates; 1 and 0 are vectors of parameters; and 1 and 0 are random disturbance terms. the error terms are assumed to have the following covariance matrix:  , 1,0 = 0 2 10 0 10 1 2 1 0 1 2 (4) where 2 is the variance of the selection equation (equation 4), 0 2 and 1 2 are the variances of the outcome equations for untreated and treated, while 0 and 1 represent the covariance and 10 head count ratio), 1 (p measures the depth of poverty), and 2 (p measures severity or intensity of poverty). c. esrm approach: in this study, the potential endogeneity issue of fpo membership influencing farmer participation is addressed using the esrm [18]. to verify the exogeneity of the endogenous variable (fpo membership), both the durbin score test and wu-hausman test for endogeneity are conducted. to account for self-selection bias in the decision to join fpos, the study incorporates a selection equation with motiv (a relevant variable) as an instrumental variable for fpo membership. this approach helps address the endogeneity concern by using an instrumental variable that affects fpo membership but is not directly related to the outcome variable of interest. the selection equation used in this study follows the framework [19] as specified below: e∗ =  +  with m = {1 if m ∗ > 0; = 0 otherwise} (2) for a farmer-member of fpo (m = 1), if m∗ > 0, where m∗ represents the expected benefits of participating in fpo (treated) compared to untreated. the analysis of the impact of fpo membership on the outcome variables (prices and poverty) under the esrm framework proceeds in two stages. in the first stage, a probit model (equation 3a) is used to analyze the determinants of the decision to join fpo. in the second stage, an ols regression with selectivity correction is employed to study the relationship between the outcome variables and a set of explanatory variables, conditional on the fpo membership decision (equation 3b). the two outcome regression equations, conditional on fpo membership, can be expressed as [16]: regime 1 (treated): 1 = 11 + 1 if, m = 1 (3a) regime 2 (untreated): 0 = 00 + 0 if, m = 0 (3b) where, 1 and 0 are the outcome variable(s) with and without fpo membership respectively, 1 and 0 are vectors of exogenous covariates; 1 and 0 are vectors of parameters; and 1 and 0 are random disturbance terms. the error terms are assumed to have the following covariance matrix:  , 1,0 = 0 2 10 0 10 1 2 1 0 1 2 (4) where 2 is the variance of the selection equation (equation 4), 0 2 and 1 2 are the variances of the outcome equations for untreated and treated, while 0 and 1 represent the covariance are the variances of the outcome equations for untreated and treated, while 10 head count ratio), 1 (p measures the depth of poverty), and 2 (p measures severity or intensity of poverty). c. esrm approach: in this study, the potential endogeneity issue of fpo membership influencing farmer participation is addressed using the esrm [18]. to verify the exogeneity of the endogenous variable (fpo membership), both the durbin score test and wu-hausman test for endogeneity are conducted. to account for self-selection bias in the decision to join fpos, the study incorporates a selection equation with motiv (a relevant variable) as an instrumental variable for fpo membership. this approach helps address the endogeneity concern by using an instrumental variable that affects fpo membership but is not directly related to the outcome variable of interest. the selection equation used in this study follows the framework [19] as specified below: e∗ =  +  with m = {1 if m ∗ > 0; = 0 otherwise} (2) for a farmer-member of fpo (m = 1), if m∗ > 0, where m∗ represents the expected benefits of participating in fpo (treated) compared to untreated. the analysis of the impact of fpo membership on the outcome variables (prices and poverty) under the esrm framework proceeds in two stages. in the first stage, a probit model (equation 3a) is used to analyze the determinants of the decision to join fpo. in the second stage, an ols regression with selectivity correction is employed to study the relationship between the outcome variables and a set of explanatory variables, conditional on the fpo membership decision (equation 3b). the two outcome regression equations, conditional on fpo membership, can be expressed as [16]: regime 1 (treated): 1 = 11 + 1 if, m = 1 (3a) regime 2 (untreated): 0 = 00 + 0 if, m = 0 (3b) where, 1 and 0 are the outcome variable(s) with and without fpo membership respectively, 1 and 0 are vectors of exogenous covariates; 1 and 0 are vectors of parameters; and 1 and 0 are random disturbance terms. the error terms are assumed to have the following covariance matrix:  , 1,0 = 0 2 10 0 10 1 2 1 0 1 2 (4) where 2 is the variance of the selection equation (equation 4), 0 2 and 1 2 are the variances of the outcome equations for untreated and treated, while 0 and 1 represent the covariance and 10 head count ratio), 1 (p measures the depth of poverty), and 2 (p measures severity or intensity of poverty). c. esrm approach: in this study, the potential endogeneity issue of fpo membership influencing farmer participation is addressed using the esrm [18]. to verify the exogeneity of the endogenous variable (fpo membership), both the durbin score test and wu-hausman test for endogeneity are conducted. to account for self-selection bias in the decision to join fpos, the study incorporates a selection equation with motiv (a relevant variable) as an instrumental variable for fpo membership. this approach helps address the endogeneity concern by using an instrumental variable that affects fpo membership but is not directly related to the outcome variable of interest. the selection equation used in this study follows the framework [19] as specified below: e∗ =  +  with m = {1 if m ∗ > 0; = 0 otherwise} (2) for a farmer-member of fpo (m = 1), if m∗ > 0, where m∗ represents the expected benefits of participating in fpo (treated) compared to untreated. the analysis of the impact of fpo membership on the outcome variables (prices and poverty) under the esrm framework proceeds in two stages. in the first stage, a probit model (equation 3a) is used to analyze the determinants of the decision to join fpo. in the second stage, an ols regression with selectivity correction is employed to study the relationship between the outcome variables and a set of explanatory variables, conditional on the fpo membership decision (equation 3b). the two outcome regression equations, conditional on fpo membership, can be expressed as [16]: regime 1 (treated): 1 = 11 + 1 if, m = 1 (3a) regime 2 (untreated): 0 = 00 + 0 if, m = 0 (3b) where, 1 and 0 are the outcome variable(s) with and without fpo membership respectively, 1 and 0 are vectors of exogenous covariates; 1 and 0 are vectors of parameters; and 1 and 0 are random disturbance terms. the error terms are assumed to have the following covariance matrix:  , 1,0 = 0 2 10 0 10 1 2 1 0 1 2 (4) where 2 is the variance of the selection equation (equation 4), 0 2 and 1 2 are the variances of the outcome equations for untreated and treated, while 0 and 1 represent the covariance represent the covariance between, ϵ1 and ϵ0 [20]. if ε is correlated with ϵ1, and ϵ0, the expected values of ϵ1, and ϵ0 conditional on the sample selection are non-zero: 11 between , 1 and 0 [20]. if  is correlated with 1 , and 0 , the expected values of 1 , and 0 conditional on the sample selection are non-zero:  1 m = 1 = 1  β φ β = 11 (5)  0 m = 0 = 0 − β 1−φ β = 00 (6) where,  and φ are the probability density and the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution, respectively. the full information maximum likelihood (film) estimator is used to fit an esrm to compare the actual expected outcomes of treated (equation 7) and untreated (equation 8), and to investigate the counter factual hypothetical cases that the untreated did participate in fpo (treated) (equation 9) and the treated did not participate in fpo i.e., untreated (equation 10) as follows:  1 m = 1 = 1β1 + 11 ----- (a) (7)  0 m = 0 = 0β0 + 00 ----- (b) (8)  0 m = 1 = 1β0 + 01 ----- (c) (9)  1 m = 0 = 0β1 + 10 ----- (d) (10) in the above equations and table 2, cases (a) and (b) represent the actual expectations observed in the sample, and cases (c) and (d) represent the counter factual expectations with respect to prices and poverty alleviation. following [21-23], the att and atu are calculated as below:  = e(1i|m = 1; ) – e(0i|m = 1; ), = 1i(1 – 0) + 1i(1 – 0) (11)  = e(1i |m = 0; ) – e(oi|m = 0; ), = 2i(1 – 0) + 2i(1 – 0) (12) bh1 = e(1i|m = 1; ) – e(1i |m = 0; ) = (1i – 2i)1i + 1(1i – 2i) (13) bh2 = e(2i|m = 1; ) – e(2i |m = 0; ) = (1i – 2i)2i + 2(1i – 2i) (14) conditions in equations (11) to (14) can be described as follows:  the treatment on treated (att) is the difference between (7) and (9), which is given by equation (11).  the effect of the treatment on untreated (atu) is the difference between (10) and (8), which is given by equation (12). (5) 11 between , 1 and 0 [20]. if  is correlated with 1 , and 0 , the expected values of 1 , and 0 conditional on the sample selection are non-zero:  1 m = 1 = 1  β φ β = 11 (5)  0 m = 0 = 0 − β 1−φ β = 00 (6) where,  and φ are the probability density and the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution, respectively. the full information maximum likelihood (film) estimator is used to fit an esrm to compare the actual expected outcomes of treated (equation 7) and untreated (equation 8), and to investigate the counter factual hypothetical cases that the untreated did participate in fpo (treated) (equation 9) and the treated did not participate in fpo i.e., untreated (equation 10) as follows:  1 m = 1 = 1β1 + 11 ----- (a) (7)  0 m = 0 = 0β0 + 00 ----- (b) (8)  0 m = 1 = 1β0 + 01 ----- (c) (9)  1 m = 0 = 0β1 + 10 ----- (d) (10) in the above equations and table 2, cases (a) and (b) represent the actual expectations observed in the sample, and cases (c) and (d) represent the counter factual expectations with respect to prices and poverty alleviation. following [21-23], the att and atu are calculated as below:  = e(1i|m = 1; ) – e(0i|m = 1; ), = 1i(1 – 0) + 1i(1 – 0) (11)  = e(1i |m = 0; ) – e(oi|m = 0; ), = 2i(1 – 0) + 2i(1 – 0) (12) bh1 = e(1i|m = 1; ) – e(1i |m = 0; ) = (1i – 2i)1i + 1(1i – 2i) (13) bh2 = e(2i|m = 1; ) – e(2i |m = 0; ) = (1i – 2i)2i + 2(1i – 2i) (14) conditions in equations (11) to (14) can be described as follows:  the treatment on treated (att) is the difference between (7) and (9), which is given by equation (11).  the effect of the treatment on untreated (atu) is the difference between (10) and (8), which is given by equation (12). (6) where, and φ are the probability density and the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution, respectively. the full information maximum likelihood (film) estimator is used to fit an esrm to compare the actual expected outcomes of treated (equation 7) and untreated (equation 8), and to investigate the counter factual hypothetical cases that the untreated did participate in fpo (treated) (equation 9) and the treated did not participate in fpo i.e., untreated (equation 10) as follows: 11 between , 1 and 0 [20]. if  is correlated with 1 , and 0 , the expected values of 1 , and 0 conditional on the sample selection are non-zero:  1 m = 1 = 1  β φ β = 11 (5)  0 m = 0 = 0 − β 1−φ β = 00 (6) where,  and φ are the probability density and the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution, respectively. the full information maximum likelihood (film) estimator is used to fit an esrm to compare the actual expected outcomes of treated (equation 7) and untreated (equation 8), and to investigate the counter factual hypothetical cases that the untreated did participate in fpo (treated) (equation 9) and the treated did not participate in fpo i.e., untreated (equation 10) as follows:  1 m = 1 = 1β1 + 11 ----- (a) (7)  0 m = 0 = 0β0 + 00 ----- (b) (8)  0 m = 1 = 1β0 + 01 ----- (c) (9)  1 m = 0 = 0β1 + 10 ----- (d) (10) in the above equations and table 2, cases (a) and (b) represent the actual expectations observed in the sample, and cases (c) and (d) represent the counter factual expectations with respect to prices and poverty alleviation. following [21-23], the att and atu are calculated as below:  = e(1i|m = 1; ) – e(0i|m = 1; ), = 1i(1 – 0) + 1i(1 – 0) (11)  = e(1i |m = 0; ) – e(oi|m = 0; ), = 2i(1 – 0) + 2i(1 – 0) (12) bh1 = e(1i|m = 1; ) – e(1i |m = 0; ) = (1i – 2i)1i + 1(1i – 2i) (13) bh2 = e(2i|m = 1; ) – e(2i |m = 0; ) = (1i – 2i)2i + 2(1i – 2i) (14) conditions in equations (11) to (14) can be described as follows:  the treatment on treated (att) is the difference between (7) and (9), which is given by equation (11).  the effect of the treatment on untreated (atu) is the difference between (10) and (8), which is given by equation (12). -----à (a) (7) 11 between , 1 and 0 [20]. if  is correlated with 1 , and 0 , the expected values of 1 , and 0 conditional on the sample selection are non-zero:  1 m = 1 = 1  β φ β = 11 (5)  0 m = 0 = 0 − β 1−φ β = 00 (6) where,  and φ are the probability density and the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution, respectively. the full information maximum likelihood (film) estimator is used to fit an esrm to compare the actual expected outcomes of treated (equation 7) and untreated (equation 8), and to investigate the counter factual hypothetical cases that the untreated did participate in fpo (treated) (equation 9) and the treated did not participate in fpo i.e., untreated (equation 10) as follows:  1 m = 1 = 1β1 + 11 ----- (a) (7)  0 m = 0 = 0β0 + 00 ----- (b) (8)  0 m = 1 = 1β0 + 01 ----- (c) (9)  1 m = 0 = 0β1 + 10 ----- (d) (10) in the above equations and table 2, cases (a) and (b) represent the actual expectations observed in the sample, and cases (c) and (d) represent the counter factual expectations with respect to prices and poverty alleviation. following [21-23], the att and atu are calculated as below:  = e(1i|m = 1; ) – e(0i|m = 1; ), = 1i(1 – 0) + 1i(1 – 0) (11)  = e(1i |m = 0; ) – e(oi|m = 0; ), = 2i(1 – 0) + 2i(1 – 0) (12) bh1 = e(1i|m = 1; ) – e(1i |m = 0; ) = (1i – 2i)1i + 1(1i – 2i) (13) bh2 = e(2i|m = 1; ) – e(2i |m = 0; ) = (1i – 2i)2i + 2(1i – 2i) (14) conditions in equations (11) to (14) can be described as follows:  the treatment on treated (att) is the difference between (7) and (9), which is given by equation (11).  the effect of the treatment on untreated (atu) is the difference between (10) and (8), which is given by equation (12). -----à (b) (8) 11 between , 1 and 0 [20]. if  is correlated with 1 , and 0 , the expected values of 1 , and 0 conditional on the sample selection are non-zero:  1 m = 1 = 1  β φ β = 11 (5)  0 m = 0 = 0 − β 1−φ β = 00 (6) where,  and φ are the probability density and the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution, respectively. the full information maximum likelihood (film) estimator is used to fit an esrm to compare the actual expected outcomes of treated (equation 7) and untreated (equation 8), and to investigate the counter factual hypothetical cases that the untreated did participate in fpo (treated) (equation 9) and the treated did not participate in fpo i.e., untreated (equation 10) as follows:  1 m = 1 = 1β1 + 11 ----- (a) (7)  0 m = 0 = 0β0 + 00 ----- (b) (8)  0 m = 1 = 1β0 + 01 ----- (c) (9)  1 m = 0 = 0β1 + 10 ----- (d) (10) in the above equations and table 2, cases (a) and (b) represent the actual expectations observed in the sample, and cases (c) and (d) represent the counter factual expectations with respect to prices and poverty alleviation. following [21-23], the att and atu are calculated as below:  = e(1i|m = 1; ) – e(0i|m = 1; ), = 1i(1 – 0) + 1i(1 – 0) (11)  = e(1i |m = 0; ) – e(oi|m = 0; ), = 2i(1 – 0) + 2i(1 – 0) (12) bh1 = e(1i|m = 1; ) – e(1i |m = 0; ) = (1i – 2i)1i + 1(1i – 2i) (13) bh2 = e(2i|m = 1; ) – e(2i |m = 0; ) = (1i – 2i)2i + 2(1i – 2i) (14) conditions in equations (11) to (14) can be described as follows:  the treatment on treated (att) is the difference between (7) and (9), which is given by equation (11).  the effect of the treatment on untreated (atu) is the difference between (10) and (8), which is given by equation (12). -----à (c) (9) 11 between , 1 and 0 [20]. if  is correlated with 1 , and 0 , the expected values of 1 , and 0 conditional on the sample selection are non-zero:  1 m = 1 = 1  β φ β = 11 (5)  0 m = 0 = 0 − β 1−φ β = 00 (6) where,  and φ are the probability density and the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution, respectively. the full information maximum likelihood (film) estimator is used to fit an esrm to compare the actual expected outcomes of treated (equation 7) and untreated (equation 8), and to investigate the counter factual hypothetical cases that the untreated did participate in fpo (treated) (equation 9) and the treated did not participate in fpo i.e., untreated (equation 10) as follows:  1 m = 1 = 1β1 + 11 ----- (a) (7)  0 m = 0 = 0β0 + 00 ----- (b) (8)  0 m = 1 = 1β0 + 01 ----- (c) (9)  1 m = 0 = 0β1 + 10 ----- (d) (10) in the above equations and table 2, cases (a) and (b) represent the actual expectations observed in the sample, and cases (c) and (d) represent the counter factual expectations with respect to prices and poverty alleviation. following [21-23], the att and atu are calculated as below:  = e(1i|m = 1; ) – e(0i|m = 1; ), = 1i(1 – 0) + 1i(1 – 0) (11)  = e(1i |m = 0; ) – e(oi|m = 0; ), = 2i(1 – 0) + 2i(1 – 0) (12) bh1 = e(1i|m = 1; ) – e(1i |m = 0; ) = (1i – 2i)1i + 1(1i – 2i) (13) bh2 = e(2i|m = 1; ) – e(2i |m = 0; ) = (1i – 2i)2i + 2(1i – 2i) (14) conditions in equations (11) to (14) can be described as follows:  the treatment on treated (att) is the difference between (7) and (9), which is given by equation (11).  the effect of the treatment on untreated (atu) is the difference between (10) and (8), which is given by equation (12). -----à (d) (10) in the above equations and table 2, cases (a) and (b) represent the actual expectations observed in the sample, and cases (c) and (d) represent the counter factual expectations with respect to prices and poverty alleviation. following [21-23], the att and atu are calculated as below: 𝐴𝑇𝑇 = e(𝑦1i|m = 1; 𝑥) – e(𝑦0i|m = 1; 𝑥), = 𝑥1i(𝛽1 – 𝛽0) + 𝜆1i(𝜎𝜀1 – 𝜎𝜀0) (11) 𝐴𝑇𝑈 = e(𝑦1i |m = 0; 𝑥) – e(𝑦oi|m = 0; 𝑥), = 𝑥2i(𝛽1 – 𝛽0) + 𝜆2i(𝜎𝜀1 – 𝜎𝜀0) (12) bh1 = e(𝑦1i|m = 1; 𝑥) – e(𝑦1i |m = 0; 𝑥) = (𝑥1i – 𝑥2i)𝛽1i + 𝜎𝜀1(𝜆1i – 𝜆2i) (13) bh2 = e(𝑦2i|m = 1; 𝑥) – e(𝑦2i |m = 0; 𝑥) = (𝑥1i – 𝑥2i)𝛽2i + 𝜎𝜀2(𝜆1i – 𝜆2i) (14) conditions in equations (11) to (14) can be described as follows: ● the treatment on treated (att) is the difference between (7) and (9), which is given by equation (11). ● the effect of the treatment on untreated (atu) is the difference between (10) and (8), which is given by equation (12). ● the effect of heterogeneity of treated (bh1) is the difference between (7) and (10). ● the effect of base heterogeneity (bh2) of untreated is the difference between (9) and (8). by comparing the results of equations (13) and (14) or (11) and (12), the transitional heterogeneity (th) is estimated [24]. th represents the heterogeneity in the effect of fpo participation, indicating whether the effect is larger or smaller for the farmers who actually participated compared to the counter factual scenario where non-participants hypothetically participated. this analysis allows for a deeper understanding of the nuanced impacts of fpo participation, considering the differential effects treated and untreated. it sheds light on the potential variations in outcomes and helps identify factors that may influence the differential effects of fpo participation among farmers. 4. results and discussion 4.1 descriptive statistics of the variables according to the results presented in table 3, both treated and untreated farmers, with respect to fpo membership, exhibit similar averages in terms of variables such as lhs, fe, and dtf. however, when it comes to other covariates, treated farmers demonstrate statistically significant advantages over untreated farmers. specifically, treated farmers who are members of the fpo benefit in terms of both prices and annual income compared to their untreated counterparts, and these differences are statisti52 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 cally significant. the advantages enjoyed by treated farmers can be attributed to various factors facilitated by fpo membership, such as economies of large-scale production, reduced transaction costs, and better market linkages. these factors contribute to higher prices obtained by treated farmers, which in turn leads to higher annual income compared to untreated farmers. these results suggest that fpo membership provides tangible benefits to farmers, including improved prices for their produce and increased annual income, as a result of factors associated with fpos such as economies of scale, reduced transaction costs, and enhanced market connections [25,26]. 4.2 poverty analysis—estimation of poverty status among smallholder dry chilli farming households the below poverty line (bpl) classification is a recognized benchmark used to indicate economic disadvantage and identify households in need of government assistance and aid. in the indian context, the poverty line is determined based on household income rather than the level of prices. recently, the government of andhra pradesh has revised the income limit for the bpl category, setting it at an annual income below rs. 1.20 lakh table 2. treatment and heterogeneity effects. th decision stage treatment effectstreated untreated treated 𝐸(𝑦1i|m = 1) = (a) 𝐸(𝑦0i|m = 1) = (c) att (a – c) untreated 𝐸(𝑦1i|m = 0) = (d) 𝐸(𝑦0i|m = 0) = (b) atu (d – b) heterogeneity effects bh1 (a – d) bh2 (c – b) th (att – atu) notes: (a) and (b) represent observed expected outcome indicators, (c) and (d) represent counter factual expected outcome indicators; m = 1 if farmers participate in fpo and m = 0, otherwise; 𝑦1i: outcome indicators if farmers participate in fpo, 𝑦0i: outcome indicators if farmers do not participate in fpo; att: effect of the treatment (i.e., fpo membership) on the treated, atu: effect of the treatment (i.e., fpo membership) on the untreated; bh1: the effect of base heterogeneity for farmers enjoying membership in fpo (m = 1), bh2: the effect of base heterogeneity for farmers not having membership in fpo (m = 0), th = (att – atu) [14]. table 3. descriptive statistics of the variables across treated vis-à-vis untreated. variables pooled (n = 476) treated (n = 161) untreated (n = 315) ‘z’ test (treated – untreated)mean sd mean sd mean sd price (rs/qtl) 8221.73 271.87 8943.72 150.82 7457.56 149.05 7.23** income (rs/year) 125092.60 54985.57 141068.8 46120.05 96482.62 32589.32 11.94** fpo membership 0.3382 0.4736 -----gnd 0.3634 0.4815 0.8634 0.3445 0.1079 0.3108 23.93** lhs 3.3277 0.9877 3.6273 0.8520 3.1746 1.0180 1.82 edu 0.3866 0.4875 0.6460 0.4797 0.2540 0.4360 7.66** gap 0.5609 0.6074 0.7019 0.4589 0.4889 0.6598 3.41* fe 24.3466 11.6288 23.9068 11.6075 24.5714 11.6517 0.83 dtf 25.0231 15.1344 25.5031 14.8409 24.7778 15.2998 0.2459 ami 0.3971 0.4898 0.9441 0.2304 0.1175 0.3225 9.4502** aii 0.3761 0.4849 0.6534 0.4994 0.2365 0.4733 2.6102** ate 0.2311 0.4220 0.9621 0.2421 0.3175 0.4662 9.4907** ativ 0.4223 0.4944 0.8261 0.3802 0.2159 0.4121 19.58** atic 0.5609 0.4968 0.7516 0.4335 0.3635 0.4995 2.09* note: ** and * denote significance levels at 1% and 5% levels respectively. raw data source: field survey, 2022-2023. 53 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 for rural families. in the study’s context, smallholder dry chilli farmers whose household income falls below this bpl threshold are considered to be living in poverty. this classification enables the identification of farmers who are economically disadvantaged and require targeted support and interventions. by considering the bpl category, the study aims to assess the impact of fpo membership on poverty alleviation among these smallholder farmers. the findings from table 4 reveal significant insights into the extent and severity of poverty among smallholder dry chilli farmers in the study area. the calculated poverty indicators shed light on the challenges faced by these farmers and emphasize the importance of targeted interventions and policies to improve their economic wellbeing. firstly, the study area’s poverty incidence (p0) of 0.521 indicates that approximately 52 percent of the sample farmers are living in bpl. this high percentage highlights the prevalence of poverty in the region and the urgent need to address this issue. secondly, the poverty depth or gap (p1) of 0.23 indicates that, on average, the income of poor households falls short by 23 percent of the poverty line. this statistic demonstrates the extent of income inadequacy faced by poor farmers and the magnitude of the challenge in lifting them out of poverty. figure 2 visually represents the proportion of the poverty line that needs to be bridged to uplift these poor farmers’ incomes above the poverty line. moreover, the poverty severity (p2) rate of 16.6 percent highlights the existence of a subgroup among the poor population that experiences particularly severe poverty. these farmers are in dire need of attention from policy-makers, and measures such as income redistribution and livelihood improvement initiatives should be prioritized to uplift their standard of living. these poverty indicators provided by this study offer valuable data for policy-makers to develop targeted interventions and policies that address the economic challenges faced by smallholder dry chilli farmers in the study area. fpo membership has been identified as a significant positive factor in improving the farmers’ standard of living by increasing prices and income [27,28]. table 4. estimates of poverty incidence, depth and severity among smallholder dry chilli farmers. category incidence (p0) depth (p1) severity (p2) treated 0.352 0.126 0.059 untreated 0.691 0.494 0.281 overall 0.521 0.226 0.166 raw data source: field survey, 2022-2023. according to figure 3, the poverty profile analysis highlights the stark disparities between untreated and treated farmer-households, indicating that fpo membership has a significant impact on poverty and economic conditions. the study reveals that untreated farmerhouseholds had a substantially higher poverty incidence of 0.691 compared to treated farmer-households, where the poverty incidence was significantly lower at 0.352. this 49 percent difference in poverty incidence suggests that a larger proportion of untreated farmers were living below the poverty line compared to their treated counterparts. moreover, the depth and severity of poverty were also found to be greater among untreated farmers. the poverty depth for untreated farmers was measured at 0.494, indicating a larger income shortfall below the poverty line for this group. in contrast, treated farmers had a lower poverty depth of 0.126, implying a comparatively smaller income deficit. similarly, the severity of poverty was 0.281 for untreated farmers, while treated farmers experienced a much lower severity of poverty at 0.059. this significant difference indicates higher levels of inequality and deprivation among untreated farmers. the study’s findings are consistent with previous research [27,29]. in the context of the current study, these results strongly suggest that membership in fpos and the associated benefits, such as economies of scale, reduced transaction costs, and improved market linkages, play a vital role in poverty reduction and decreased income inequality among smallholder dry chilli farmers in the study area. 4.3 esrm approach before proceeding with the esrm, the variables were tested for the presence of multicollinearity. the estimated variance inflation factor (vif) values for all the variables in both the price and poverty models were found to be less than the critical value of 10 (appendix 1). this indicates that multicollinearity was not a problem [30-32]. the absence of multicollinearity suggests that the variables are not highly correlated with each other, and their independent contributions can be effectively assessed. to test for heteroskedasticity, the breusch-pagan/cook-weisberg test was conducted on both models. the findings indicated the absence of heteroskedasticity, indicating that the variances of the error terms in the models were constant (appendix 2). the overall test of possible endogeneity of the ‘fpo membership’ variable produced significant results in both the price and poverty models (table 5). the findings of both the durbin (score) 𝜒2 (1) test and the wu-hausman f (1,462) test were significant, implying that the treatment variable, ‘fpo membership’ is highly endogenous in both models. this means that the decision to join fpo is influenced by other factors, and endogeneity needs to be 54 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 controlled for in the estimation process to obtain unbiased results. these tests and findings help ensure the reliability and validity of the estimation process in addressing the impact of fpo membership on both prices and poverty outcomes among smallholder dry chilli farmers. table 5. tests for the endogeneity of ‘fpo membership’ variable in price and poverty models. s.no models durbin (score) χ2 (1) wu-hausman f (1,462) 1 price 13.5524 (0.0002) 13.5393 (0.0003) 2 poverty 16.3384 (0.0001) 16.4215 (0.0001) raw data source: field survey, 2022-2023. tables 6 and 7 present the wald χ2 test statistics for the price and poverty models, respectively, indicating that both models exhibit a good fit for the esrm. this suggests that the esrm framework is appropriate for addressing the endogeneity problem and obtaining reliable estimates for the study. to further investigate the endogeneity issue, the researchers conducted a likelihood ratio (lr) test to test the independence of the outcome and selection equations. the lr test results show that the null hypothesis (ho) of ‘no correlation between fpo membership and price/income across both the price and poverty models’ was rejected, as evidenced by the test statistics of 19.27** and 17.66** respectively. this rejection indicates that there is a positive correlation between fpo membership and price/income in both the outcome and selection equations, and thus, these equations are dependent on each other. the positive correlation between fpo membership and price/income in both outcome and selection equations is a strong indication of endogeneity, meaning that fpo membership is not randomly assigned but influenced by other factors. this highlights the need to account for endogeneity in the model specification for both the price and poverty models to obtain more accurate and unbiased estimates. by identifying and addressing the endogeneity issue through the esrm approach, the study ensures that the estimated impact of fpo membership on price realization and poverty alleviation is more reliable and robust. it allows policy-makers and researchers to have confidence in the findings and better understand the true relationship between fpo membership and the economic well-being of smallholder dry chilli farmers in the study area. the full information maximum likelihood (fiml) approach is a powerful statistical method used in this study to jointly estimate both the outcome and selection equations. this approach allows the researchers to account for the endogeneity issue and obtain reliable estimates of the impact of fpo membership on prices and poverty outcomes for smallholder dry chilli farmers. in tables 6 and 7, the outcome equations are presented in columns 2 and 3, respectively. these equations represent the estimated impact of fpo membership on price realization and poverty for 15 below the poverty line compared to their treated counterparts. moreover, the depth and severity of poverty were also found to be greater among untreated farmers. the poverty depth for untreated farmers was measured at 0.494, indicating a larger income shortfall below the poverty line for this group. in contrast, treated farmers had a lower poverty depth of 0.126, implying a comparatively smaller income deficit. similarly, the severity of poverty was 0.281 for untreated farmers, while treated farmers experienced a much lower severity of poverty at 0.059. this significant difference indicates higher levels of inequality and deprivation among untreated farmers. the study’s findings are consistent with previous research [27,29]. in the context of the current study, these results strongly suggest that membership in fpos and the associated benefits, such as economies of scale, reduced transaction costs, and improved market linkages, play a vital role in poverty reduction and decreased income inequality among smallholder dry chilli farmers in the study area. figure 3. poverty incidence, depth and severity among smallholder (dry) farmers. 4.3 esrm approach before proceeding with the esrm, the variables were tested for the presence of multicollinearity. the estimated variance inflation factor (vif) values for all the variables in both the price and poverty models were found to be less than the critical value of 10 (appendix 1). this indicates that multicollinearity was not a problem [30-32]. the absence of multicollinearity figure 3. poverty incidence, depth and severity among smallholder (dry) farmers. 55 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 both the treated and untreated categories of farmers. by analyzing these outcome equations, the study can quantify the specific effects of fpo membership on prices and poverty levels, taking into consideration the fpo membership status of the farmers. column 4 in tables 6 and 7 presents the selection equation. this equation identifies the determinants of fpo membership, allowing the researchers to understand the factors influencing farmers’ decisions to join or not join the fpos. the estimated impact of fpo membership based on the coefficients of the ols regression is presented in the last column (column 5) of tables 6 and 7. to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of fpo membership, the study employs the esrm framework, which simultaneously estimates the table 6. esrm-impact of fpo membership on price realization of smallholder dry chilli farmers. dependent variable ------à endogenous switching regression ols treated (price) untreated (price) fpo membership (treated = 1 untreated = 0) price 1 2 3 4 5 fpo membership 0.0283** (0.0061) motiv --0.3879** (0.1088) -gnd 0.0046 (0.0030) 0.0002 (0.0140) 0.0257 (0.0652) –0.0079 (0.0047) lhs 0.0297** (0.0076) 0.0004 (0.0034) 0.2647** (0.1043) 0.0095* (0.0045) edu 0.0125* (0.0059) 0.0027 (0.0084) 0.2170* (0.1009) 0.0029 (0.0021) gap 0.0128** (0.0048) 0.0056 (0.0056) 0.0309** (0.0115) 0.0052 (0.0034) fe 0.0151** (0.0053) 0.0001 (0.0002) 0.0244* (0.0112) 9.79e-06 (0.0002) dtf –0.0101** (0.0032) –0.0074** (0.0022) –0.2751** (0.1043) –0.0209** (0.0047) ami 0.0490** (0.0095) 0.0653** (0.0132) 0.3032** (0.1021) 0.0497** (0.0062) aii 0.0064** (0.0016) 0.0027 (0.0038) 0.0448** (0.0161) 0.0002 (0.0048) ate 0.0118** (0.0021) 0.0533** (0.0096) 0.3689** (0.1389) 0.0154** (0.0056) ativ 0.0266** (0.0066) 0.0115** (0.0028) 0.4458** (0.1887) –0.0002 (0.0001) atic 0.0181** (0.0066) –0.0139 (0.0081) 0.1721 (0.0963) –0.0006 (0.0046) constant 3.1927 (0.0192) 3.2348 (0.0157) 0.5922 (0.3167) 3.2353 (0.0099) σi 0.0639** (0.0031) 0.0561** (0.0066) ρj –0.4897** (0.2025) 0.8987 (0.8705) n 476 476 wald 𝜒2 (11) 194.67** (0.0000) lr test of independent equations: 𝜒2 (1) 19.27** (0.0000) note: robust standard errors in parentheses; ** & * indicate 1 and 5 percent probability levels respectively. raw data source: field survey, 2022-2023. 56 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 outcome and selection equations, accounting for the endogeneity problem. this approach takes into account the interdependencies between the decision of farmers to join the fpo and the resulting outcomes on prices and poverty levels [33-35]. these estimates allow the researchers to draw meaningful conclusions about how fpo membership affects price realization and poverty alleviation among smallholder dry chilli farmers. in the price model (table 6), the covariance term of fpo membership for the treated category is statistically significant (–0.4897**), indicating that self-selection occurs in fpo membership. this means that treated farmers table 7. esrm-impact of fpo membership on poverty alleviation of smallholder dry chilli farmers. dependent variable ------à endogenous switching regression ols treated (poverty) untreated (poverty) fpo membership (treated = 1 untreated = 0) poverty 1 2 3 4 5 fpo membership 0.4897** (0.0251) motiv 0.3956** (0.1290) gnd –0.0288 (0.0221) –0.0063 (0.0221) 0.1352 (0.7812) 0.0280 (0.0187) lhs 0.2815** (0.0119) 0.3555** (0.0307) 0.2234** (0.0366) 0.3363** (0.0061) edu 0.0713* (0.0335) –0.0195 (0.0158) 0.6835** (0.2794) 0.0221 (0.0132) gap 0.0163** (0.0052) 0.0144 (0.0105) 0.3079* (0.1504) 0.0139 (0.0098) fe 0.0021** (0.0006) 0.0003 (0.0009) 0.0108** (0.0013) 0.0032** (0.0005) dtf –0.0033** (0.0007) –0.0025** (0.0004) –0.0193* (0.0091) –0.0006 (0.0004) ami 0.0208** (0.0047) 0.0613** (0.0266) 0.4349** (0.0406) 0.0067** (0.0006) aii 0.0347** (0.0015) 0.0205 (0.0231) 0.3330** (0.0914) 0.0112 (0.0138) ate 0.0399** (0.0148) 0.0411* (0.0203) 0.0587** (0.0195) 0.0406** (0.0163) ativ 0.0256** (0.0083) 0.1111** (0.0179) 0.3835** (0.1129) 0.0063 (0.0146) atic 0.0580* (0.0279) –0.0054 (0.0146) 0.7203* (0.3305) 0.0073 (0.0146) constant 11.0260 (0.0951) 10.2932 (0.0318) 4.3691 (0.7417) 10.3616 (0.0288) σi 0.1235** (0.0075) 0.1182** (0.0047) ρj –0.4661* (0.2309) 0.2262 (0.2416) n 476 476 wald 𝜒2 (11) 618.73** (0.0000) lr test of independent equations: 𝜒2 (1) 17.66** (0.0000) note: robust standard errors in parentheses; ** & * indicate at 1 and 5 percent probability levels respectively. raw data source: field survey, 2022-2023. 57 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 who choose to have fpo membership may have different effects compared to untreated farmers. the negative and significant sign of ρj for the treated category suggests a positive bias. this means that farmers with above-average prices have a higher probability of enjoying fpo membership. on the other hand, the insignificant covariance estimate for the untreated category (0.8987ns) suggests that, in the absence of fpo membership, there would be no significant difference in the average price realized between the treated and untreated categories due to unobservable factors. these estimates are consistent since ρ1 < ρ2. therefore, farmers who are members of fpos are able to obtain higher prices compared to their untreated counterparts, as reported in studies [12-14]. similar findings are observed in the poverty model (table 7), where the covariance term of the treated category is statistically significant (–0.4661**), indicating a positive bias. the covariance estimate for the untreated category is insignificant (0.2262ns). this suggests that treated farmers realize higher incomes than they would if they did not have fpo membership [36]. the estimated coefficient of correlation (ρj) is statistically significant for the treated category in both models, indicating the presence of sample selectivity bias in both equations. so, the ho that sample selectivity bias was absent in both equations can be rejected [37]. moreover, there is a significant difference in σi across the treated and untreated categories, indicating the presence of heterogeneity in the sample. in both models, ρ1 and ρ2 have alternative signs, with ρ1 being statistically significant and negative, while ρ2 is statistically nonsignificant and positive. this suggests that farmers decide whether to join fpos based on comparative advantages. the significance of ρ1 indicates that self-selection matters and farmers with above-average price and income levels have higher chances of enjoying fpo membership. therefore, treated farmers experience better or higher prices and incomes than they would without fpo membership. furthermore, the positive value of (σ1 – σ2 ) term (i.e., between treated and untreated) across both models demonstrates that participating in fpo membership ensures higher prices and incomes under self-selection than under random assignment. these results confirm that the esrm is an appropriate model controlling for self-selection and inherent differences between the treated and untreated categories, as discussed by seng [20]. the differences in the significance of coefficients of the key explanatory variables in both esrms (tables 6 and 7) provide valuable insights into the presence of heterogeneity [21]. in the price model (table 6), for the treated category (column 2), an increase in edu and adherence to gaps in dry chilli cultivation significantly increase the price of the produce. however, for the untreated category (column 3), these variables do not show a correlation with price, and even their magnitudes are lower compared to the treated category. this pattern is similarly observed in the poverty model concerning the realization of higher income across the treated and untreated categories. the results indicate that a higher level of education plays a significant role in influencing prices and incomes among smallholder dry chilli farmers who are members of fpos. education facilitates better access to local extension networks, leading to fpo membership, and subsequently, access to backward and forward linkages, higher productivity, increased output, and substantial benefits compared to the untreated category. hence, edu and gaps together contribute to higher prices and incomes in the guntur district. importantly, the coefficients in tables 6 and 7 represent unconditional effects, and the observed differences are not solely due to fpo membership. additionally, it is evident that edu and gaps play a joint role in determining the likelihood of participating in fpos and influencing the outcome variables (price and income). these findings align with previous works [12,16,23,15,20]. factors such as fe, aii, and atic also exhibit heterogeneous effects between the treated and untreated categories across both price and poverty models. this variation is expected as long-term farm experience influences farmers’ membership in fpos and their access to quality inputs for dry chilli production. regarding atic, the untreated category primarily relies on non-institutional loans from local wholesalers, millers, and private money lenders, resulting in the sale of their produce in local markets, unlike the treated farmers. in contrast, treated farmers, benefiting from higher prices and prompt payment of sales proceeds, are considered more creditworthy by institutional sources. hence, fpo membership plays a crucial role in enhancing the repayment capacity of treated farmers, highlighting the link between credit and marketing through fpo membership. furthermore, the variable “lhs” is found to significantly increase both price and income for the treated farmers and significantly influence income for the untreated category. on the other hand, “dtf” negatively and significantly influences price and income, as the remoteness of farms discourages farmers’ membership in fpos, leaving them deprived of remunerative prices compared to the treated category. these findings reveal the presence of heterogeneity in the effects of key explanatory variables between treated and untreated categories in the price and poverty models. in the selection equations (column 4), the major drivers 58 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 for farmers’ membership in fpos include motiv, lhs, edu, gap, fe, aii, ami, ate, and ativ. the instrumental variable “motiv” stands out as having a positive and significant influence on both the price (0.3879**) and poverty (0.3956**) models. this result is not surprising, as farmers who have strong linkages with research and extension networks are motivated to join fpos. this finding is in line with earlier research [14] and thus, provides valuable evidence that motiv plays a crucial role in influencing fpo membership and contributes to poverty alleviation by increasing income above the poverty line of rs. 1.20 lakh per year. consistent with theoretical expectations, several other factors also show significant effects on fpo membership and subsequent outcomes. farmers with more farm experience, access to improved inputs, extension agents, improved dry chilli varieties, and market information achieve significant increases in prices and income. however, it is noteworthy that “dtf” has a significant negative influence on farmers’ membership in fpos. this implies that the remoteness of farms discourages farmers from joining fpos, potentially limiting their access to benefits such as higher prices and improved income that fpo members enjoy. on the other hand, the variable “gnd” does not show a significant influence on the outcome variables, in line with the findings from previous studies [38,39]. the last column (ols approach) of tables 6 and 7 focuses on examining the effects of fpo membership on price and poverty alleviation. the results indicate a significant difference in the prices and incomes realized between the treated and untreated categories of fpo membership. however, it is crucial to acknowledge that the ols approach assumes that “fpo membership” is exogenously determined, whereas in reality, it is endogenously determined, as demonstrated in table 5. the endogeneity of fpo membership can introduce bias in the ols estimates, as there might be unobservable factors that simultaneously influence both fpo membership and the outcome variables (price and income). consequently, the ols estimates may not provide accurate and reliable estimates of the true causal effects of fpo membership on the outcomes. to address this endogeneity issue and obtain unbiased and consistent estimates, the study employed esrm in the second, third, and fourth columns of tables 6 and 7. this model allows for the control of endogeneity by incorporating instrumental variables (motiv) to disentangle the true causal effects of fpo membership on price and poverty alleviation from confounding factors, resulting in more reliable and robust estimates. treatment effects: the esrms results on the expected outcomes under actual and counter factual conditions for treated and untreated are shown in table 8. a simple comparison of observed outcomes of treated and untreated alone can be misleading [16], as it suggests that on average the treated (a) farmer’s price and income are 2.28 and 5.79 percent respectively higher than the untreated (b). however, the correct comparison is between the observed outcomes for treated (a) and the counter factual case (c), which shows that by having membership in fpo, the treated are earning on average 2.11 percent higher price than if they had become untreated. similarly, comparing the expected price in the counter factual case (d) and observed outcome (b), by not having membership in fpo, untreated are forgoing 1.25 percent of the price. that is, the untreated would have received a higher price by 1.25 percent if they had become treated. these results indicate that fpo membership has a significant positive impact on the prices realized by the treated farmers compared to the untreated farmers. this is further supported by the th effect, which is positive for prices, indicating that the effect of fpo membership is even greater for the treated farmers compared to the untreated farmers [40,41]. table 8. treatment and heterogeneity effects. treated untreated treatment effects price treated (a) 3.2934 (c) 3.2253 tt = 0.0681** untreated (d) 3.2601 (b) 3.2199 tu = 0.0402** heterogeneity effects bh1 = 0.0333 bh2 = 0.0054 th = 0.0279 ** poverty treated (a) 16.0723 (c) 11.5511 tt = 4.5212** untreated (d) 13.8569 (b) 11.4114 tu = 2.4455** heterogeneity effects bh1 = 2.2154 bh2 = 0.1397 th = 2.0757 ** raw data source: field survey, 2022-2023. 59 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 furthermore, in terms of income, the comparison between the observed outcomes for the treated farmers (a) and the counter factual case (c) shows that by being a member of an fpo, the treated farmers earn, on average, 39.14 percent higher annual income compared to what they would have earned if they were untreated. similarly, comparing the expected income in the counter factual case (d) and the observed outcome (b) for the untreated farmers, it is found that the untreated farmers are forgoing 21.43 percent of annual income by not being members of an fpo. in other words, the untreated farmers would have received a 21.43 percent higher income if they had chosen to become treated. these results indicate that fpo membership significantly increases the income realized by the treated farmers compared to the untreated farmers. the th effect is also positive for income, indicating that the effect is even greater for the treated farmers compared to the untreated farmers [39]. overall, the results from both the price and poverty models, as indicated by the th effects, demonstrate that farmers who enjoy membership in an fpo have realized higher prices and incomes at a significant level compared to untreated farmers at both decision stages. therefore, the sources of heterogeneity suggest that treated farmers obtain higher prices and incomes than untreated farmers regardless of their participation status. in other words, farmers who have fpo membership are still better off than those who are non-members. 5. conclusions and policy implications the agriculture sector plays a significant role in the indian economy, contributing approximately 13.39 percent to the gdp and employing 55 percent of the total workforce. however, small and marginal farmers, who constitute a majority of the farming population, face various challenges such as low output, limited marketable surplus, inadequate market access, and lack of access to credit and training. these challenges contribute to poverty and hinder the development of the agricultural sector. to address these issues, the government of india has promoted the formation of fpos as a means to alleviate poverty among farmers. in the case of dry chilli production in guntur, andhra pradesh, smallholder farmers face challenges in both production and marketing. to support these farmers, the government has facilitated the establishment of six fpos specifically focused on dry chillies in guntur district. the participation of smallholder farmers in these fpos has provided them with numerous benefits, including economies of scale, strengthened market linkages, access to quality inputs and extension services, reduced transaction costs, enhanced bargaining power, and access to remunerative prices for their produce. however, previous studies on fpos have primarily focused on growth, linkages, transaction volumes, and prices, without providing a comprehensive assessment of the overall impact of fpos. therefore, this study aims to fill that gap by examining the factors driving smallholder dry chilli farmers’ decision to engage with fpos. moreover, this study assesses the impact of fpos on the attainment of remunerative prices and poverty alleviation among smallholder farmers. the analysis focuses on the state of andhra pradesh and guntur district, considering their potential for dry chillies production and the presence of functioning fpos in the region. two specific fpos, red chilli farmer producer organisation and spoorthi chilli producers company ltd, were selected for an in-depth study. the study utilized cross-sectional data consisting of 161 treated farmers (fpo members) and 315 untreated farmers (non-members) randomly selected. to address potential endogeneity issues, the study utilizes the endogenous switching regression model, which incorporates a selection equation with a relevant instrumental variable. this approach helps account for self-selection bias in the decision to join fpos and provides a robust analysis of the impact of fpo membership on poverty alleviation among smallholder chilli farmers. the empirical results of the esrm analysis revealed a positive and significant association between fpo membership and both price realization and poverty alleviation. specifically, fpo membership was found to increase prices by 2.11 percent and annual agricultural income by 39.14 percent. several factors were identified as major drivers of farmers’ participation in fpo membership, including edu, gap, fe, aii, atic, lhs, dtf, ami, ate and ativ. these factors influenced both the price and poverty models. the negative signs of the parameter (ρj) for the treated group in both the price and poverty models indicate a positive bias, suggesting that farmers with above-average prices and income are more likely to join fpos. furthermore, the comparison of parameters (ρ1 < ρ2) indicates that farmers with fpo membership achieved higher prices and annual income compared to those who remained untreated. based on the findings, the study concludes that fpo membership contributes to an improved standard of living for smallholder dry chilli farmers by increasing prices and income compared to non-members. the positive impact of fpo membership on prices and income can have long-term beneficial effects and potentially extend to other aspects of farmers’ lives. therefore, it is recommended that the government promote the popularity of fpos among farm60 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 ers. initiatives such as the agriculture infrastructure fund (aif) scheme and linking fpos to the electronic national agriculture market (e-nam) portal provide ample opportunities to promote and support fpos. by creating awareness, providing financial support, and facilitating market access, policy-makers can encourage more farmers to join fpos and reap the benefits of collective action and market integration. author contributions k. nirmal ravi kumar: conceptualization, review, methodology, data collection, data curation, data analysis, writing initial draft; m. jagan mohan reddy: expert comments and suggestions; adinan bahahudeen shafiwu: expert comments and suggestions; a. amaraendar reddy: expert comments and suggestions. all the authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. acknowledgement we appreciate the ideas and suggestions provided by dr sunil saroj, senior research analyst, international food policy 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[32] kondo, e., 2019. market participation intensity effect on productivity of smallholder cowpea farmers: evidence from the northern region of ghana. review of agricultural and applied economics (raae). 22(1340-2019-777), 14-23. doi: https://doi.org/10.15414/raae.2019.22.01.14-23 [33] gyau, a., mbugua, m., oduol, j., 2016. determinants of participation and intensity of participation in collective action: evidence from smallholder avocado farmers in kenya. journal on chain and network science. 16(2), 147-156. [34] ma, w., abdulai, a., 2017. the economic impacts of agricultural cooperatives on smallholder farmers in rural china. agribusiness. 33(4), 537-551. [35] hoken, h., su, q., 2018. measuring the effect of agricultural cooperatives on household income: case study of a rice‐producing cooperative in china. agribusiness. 34(4), 831-846. [36] lokshin, m., sajaia, z., 2004. maximum likelihood estimation of endogenous switching regression models. the stata journal. 4(3), 282-289. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867x0400400306 [37] fitawek, w., hendriks, s.l., 2021. evaluating the impact of large-scale agricultural investments on household food security using an endogenous switching regression model. land. 10(3), 323. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/land10030323 https://www.manage.gov.in/publications/edigest/jun2018.pdf https://www.manage.gov.in/publications/edigest/jun2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.3934/agrfood.2018.3.216 62 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 03 | september 2023 [38] amengor, n., owusu-asante, b., adofo, k., et al., 2018. adoption of improved sweetpotato varieties in ghana. asian journal of agricultural extension, economics & sociology. 23(3), 1-13. doi: https://doi.org/10.9734/ajaees/2018/39874 [39] sarma, p., rahman, m., 2020. impact of government agricultural input subsidy card on rice productivity in rajbari district of bangladesh: application of endogenous switching regression model. agricultural research. 8(5), 131-145. doi: https://doi.org/10.13189/ujar.2020.080501 [40] läpple, d., hennessy, t., newman, c., 2013. quantifying the economic return to participatory extension programmes in ireland: an endogenous switching regression analysis. journal of agricultural economics. 64(2), 467-482. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12000 [41] kehinde, a.d., ogundeji, a.a., 2022. the simultaneous impact of access to credit and cooperative services on cocoa productivity in south-western nigeria. agriculture & food security. 11(1), 11. doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-021-00351-4 appendices appendix 1. vif among selected independent variables. variables vif 1/vif fpo membership 1.39 0.7190 ami 2.33 0.4293 gnd 2.19 0.4561 ate 1.41 0.7113 ativ 1.4 0.7133 lo 1.36 0.7337 atic 1.3 0.7663 edu 1.23 0.8155 motiv 1.12 0.8909 lhs 1.08 0.9223 gap 1.07 0.9305 dtm 1.04 0.9632 fe 1.02 0.9824 appendix 2. breusch-pagan/cook-weisberg test for heteroskedasticity. price income (poverty) 𝜒2 (1) 0.09 0.13 prob (𝜒2) 0.7625 0.7178 https://doi.org/10.9734/ajaees/2018/39874 32 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae verification of efficacy of bitoxybacillin/ bacillus thuringiensis on red spider mite, tetranychusurticae on cut roses kidist teferra yimame*　fikre dubale betree holeta agriculture research center / ethiopian institution of ethiopia, addis ababa, ethiopia article info abstract article history received: 1 december 2020 revised: 7 december 2020 accepted: 8 december 2020 published online: 30 december 2020 cut roses industries, new income resource in ethiopia, most of flower industries are established near and around addis ababa city, especially in west and east shewa zones, most of flower enterprise established by foreigner, which enhances global economy and creates job opportunities. red spider mite, tetranychusurticae is the major obstacles for flower production here in ethiopia, in order to increase the quality and quantity of flower production need to plan different control strategies. objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of these naturally occurring bacteria in controlling the red spider mite in rose flower farms. this experiment was donning on menagesh, gallica flower farm and the variety was limbo flower, the application time was at flowering stage. two rounds at the rate of 7ml/l by using motorized knapsack sprayer for four consecutive months. the analysis of variance on mite count data after the application of bitoxybacillin (bt) and abamectin 1.8%ec showed no significant difference (p>0.05) even after 21 days after the second spray (table 1). however, the population density of the spider mite in bt treated plots was very low in all sampling dates compared to the untreated check and abamectin. the pest population (original data) after three weeks of the bitoxybacillin applications was 68.1 per stem compared to abamectin 1.8%ec (125.1) and control (110.57) indicating the registered miticide failed to suppress the mite population in roses. bitoxybacill, would be advisable to have it registered in ethiopia as alternative synthetic miticides for the control of red spider mite in integrated pest management (ipm) program. keywords: bitoxybacillin red spider mite cut roses west and east shewa ethiopia 　 1. introduction cut flowers are becoming very important and many flower farms have been established in west and east shewa zones. the enterprise plays an important role in the global economy and creates jobs and earns the much-desired foreign currency to the country. the area under flower farms is increasing and the area coverage is estimated to be around 1000 ha. two-spotted spider mite, tetranychusurticae koch is among the major bottleneck of flower production throughout the world. it is widely distributed and troublesome species recorded in ethiopia [1]. all active stages (adults and nymphs) remove plant sap (undersurface of the leaves) causing tiny light spots (with speckled appearance). loss in yield occurs when 30% of the leaf area damaged by spider mite [2,3]. infestations will reduce the quality of cut flowers, and in case of severe infestations, the entire plant may die. acaricides have provided the major means of controlling infestations on mites and it is indisputable that doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.240 *corresponding author: kidist teferra yimame, holeta agriculture research center / ethiopian institution of ethiopia, addis ababa, ethiopia; email: kidist.teferra@yahoo.com 33 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.240 they have played a major role in flower production and is likely to do so for at least the foreseeable future. since the establishment of these farms, a very wide range of different acaricides has been used to control the pest. these include dusting sulfur, abamectin, mitac, dicofol, apollo and many more. however, the repeated use of some products led to a build-up of resistance in mite population. this has resulted in a decrease in effectiveness of treatments that have been reported in ethiopia in such a short period of time. therefore, the development of alternative management strategies becomes paramount and the use of biological control agent’s visá -vis microbial agents, parasitoids and predators. predatory mites such as phytoseiuluspersimilis and amblyseiuscalifornicus were introduced to control spider mite in some flower farms [4]. thus there is an immediate need to change current crop protection strategies to ones that are based upon the use of ipm, rather than relying solely on pesticides. bacillus thuringiensis is a ubiquitous, gram-positive and spore-forming bacterium. during sporulation, it produces intracellular crystal proteins (cry proteins), which are toxic to insects. because of its insecticidal activity, it has been used for nearly fifty years to control certain insect species among the orders lepidoptera, coloeptera, and diptera. the natural insecticide produced by the bacterium bacillus thuringiensis (called “bt”) has been used for decades by farmers to control insect pests and by the world health organization to kill mosquitoes without using dangerous chemical pesticides. the bt is produced throughout the world and sold as a biological control agent in most countries where horticultural crops are grown. in 1995, worldwide sales of b. thuringiensis based insecticides were estimated at $90 million representing about 2% of the total global insecticide market [5,6].therefore, the objective of study is to evaluate the efficacy of these naturally occurring bacteria in controlling the red spider mite in rose flower farms. 2. materials and methods location: menagesha, gallica flower farm variety: limbo crop stage when bio-pesticide is applied: flowering target pest (red spider mite, tetranychusurticae koch) trade name: bitoxybacillin scientific name: bacillus thuringiensis formulation: bacillus thuringiensisvarthuringiensis bacterial spore (powder form) manufacturer: sibbiopharm ltd. dosage and frequency: two rounds at the rate of 7ml/l application technique and duration: motorized knapsack sprayer duration: four monthsstarting date: september 2016 ending date: december 2016 before the introduction of bitoxybacillin the import permit was obtained from animal and plant regulatory directorate of the moa gallica flower facilitate to obtain the importation permit and provide logistics. the greenhouse was divided into 9 plots of 10m by 6 rows receiving test bio-pesticde, abamectin, standard acaricide and control replicated three times. ten stems in each treatment/plot were randomly picked and tagged with colored labels for preand postspray mite population count data throughout experimental period. the counts were made on the top, middle and lower leaves of each sampling stems. spraying was initiated when the threshold of 4-7mites/leaf was attained. the data was analyzed using sas software (version 9.0) proc glm (2002) at p < 0.05. differences between means were assessed using the least significance difference (lsd) test at p < 0.05 after necessary transformation was made. 3. results the result is summarized in table 1. the analysis of variance on mite count data after the application of bitoxybacillin (bt) and abamectin 1.8%ec showed no significant difference (p>0.05) even after 21 days after the second spray (table 1). however, the population density of the spider mite in bt treated plots was very low in all sampling dates compared to the untreated check and abamectin. the pest population (original data) after three weeks of the bitoxybacillin applications was 68.1 per stem compared to abamectin 1.8%ec (125.1) and control (110.57) indicating the registered miticide failed to suppress the mite population in roses. the first two post spray counts of the spider mite also showed similar trend. the frequency of application of the bio-agent needs to be investigated in order to determine its economic optimum use as integrated management of the pest. although there has been no significant difference among the treatments, the pest population was clearly reduced and kept below the threshold level in bt treated plots compared to abamectin 1.8%ec (1.14ml/l) and untreated control (figure1). table 1. mean preand -post spray mite count per stem of cut flower (transformed data, (0.5 + n) ) treatment pre-spray count 1st spray post count 2nd spray post count 4das* 10das 5das 12das 21das bitoxybacillin 2.1 a 1.82a 2.0a 2.3a 2.28a 4.3a abamectin 1.8%ec 2.2 a 2.32a 2.9a 3.6a 4.47a 6.06a untreated check 2.2 a 4.67a 3.7a 4.9a 5.02a 5.73a lsd(0.05) ns 3.5 ns 2.6 2.74 ns cv 46.6 31.4 37.9 21.1 41.6 18.8 note: *das=days after spray 34 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 bitoxybacillin abamectin control m ite /s te m treatment 5das 12das 21das figure 1. post spray spider mite count per stem after 5, 12 and 21 days (transformed data) note: *das=days after spray 4. recommendation(s) bitoxybacillin has a long history of success worldwide and has been registered for use on different insect pests of economic importance (caterpillars, aphids etc), it would be advisable to have it registered in ethiopia as a relatively safe alternative to synthetic miticides for the control of red spider mite in ipm program. references [1] belder den a. elings. on-farm evaluation of integrated pest management of red spider mite in cut roses in ethiopia: final report to the ministry of agriculture and rural development. 2009(4). [2] daniel e. martinl., mohamed a. latheefl., juan d. lopezl. evaluation of selected acaricides against two spotted spider mite (acari: tetranychidae) on greenhouse cottonusing multispectral data. spring international publishing switzerland (outside the usa). 2015(1). [3] farman ullah, joon-ho lee, farhatullh. evaluation of cucumber (cucumis sativus l.) accessions (cultivars and lines) against the two-spotted spider mite (tetranychus urticae koch.) and kanzawa spider mite (t. kanzawai kishida, acari: tetranychidae). songklanakarin j. sci. technol., 2006, 28(4). [4] hussey, n.w., parr, w.j. the effect of glasshouse red spider mite (tetranychus urticae, koch) on the yield of cucumbers. j. hort. sci., 1963, 38: 255-263. [5] lambert b, m peferoen. insecticidal promise of bacillus thuringiensis. facts and mysteries about a successful biopesticide, 1992, 42: 112-122. [6] schnepf, n crickmore, j van rie, d lereclus, j baum, j feitelson, d r zeiglerand d h dean. bacillus thuringiensis and its pesticidal crystal proteins. national library of medicen, 1998, 62(3): 775-806. doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.240 26 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.384 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae sustainability of the youth empowerment scheme (yes): a case study of agricultural and rural management training institute segun-alalade a.f.1　ibitoye o.m.2　alalade o.a.3*　adesina b.s.4　elisha-nissi d.o.3 1. department of sociology, university of ibadan, nigeria. 2. finance and supplies department, agricultural and rural management training institute (armti), ilorin, nigeria. 3. extension management division, department of rural development and gender issues, agricultural and rural management training institute (armti), ilorin, nigeria. 4. enterprise management division, department of rural development and gender issues, agricultural and rural management training institute (armti), ilorin, nigeria. article info abstract article history received: 6 may 2021 accepted: 28 may 2021 published online: 31 may 2021 the study examined the sustainability of youth empowerment scheme using armti as a case study. a three-stage sampling technique was adopted in the selection of 112 respondents for the study using structured questionnaire. descriptive statistics was used to analyse data. the result of the findings show that the mean age of the respondents was 34.5. the study revealed more male (63.4%) participation in the programme, with majority (72.3%) being single. major benefit derived by respondents were skill acquisition, (98.2%), positive change in attitude towards agriculture (94.6%), and access to capital (90.2%). inadequate fund or capital support by the government, poor post-empowerment support by the government, and uncertainty over the political environment to support continuity were the major constraints to sustainability of the scheme. there was significant relationship between constraints (r = 0.462*) and perceived sustainability of the youth empowerment scheme. the study concluded that youth empowerment scheme was adjudged sustainable. government, development experts and donor agencies must ensure that sustainability of the programme is taken into cognizance at every level of the programme and efforts must be put into incorporation of monitoring and evaluation from the beginning so as to prevent wastage of resources. keywords: sustainability armti agriculture yes 　 1. introduction agriculture has been described as the main stay of the nigerian economy since independence in 1960, contributing significantly to the gross domestic product of the country (oyesola and obabire 2011). nigeria during this period emerged as one of the world’s major producers and exporters of cash crops such as cotton, palm kernel, cocoa, groundnut, hides and skin, and rubber (afolayan and ajibade 2012). however, the oil boom of the 1970s badly affected agricultural sector, with oil becoming the main stay of the nation’s economy previously dominated by agriculture. (olajide, akinlabi and tijani 2012). it is worthy of note that this economic shift to oil signalled the inception of the myriad of socio-economic challenges faced by nigeria till date (adesina, 2013). the challenge of increased youth unemployment could practically be traced to the neglect of agriculture and the over-dependence on oil (adesina, 2013). the pathetic state of nigeria’s economy has no doubt led to widespread poverty and youth unemployment becoming *corresponding author: alalade o. a.; segunalalade@gmail.com 27 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.384 the most daunting development challenges hindering the nation from achieving sustainable development goals. evidences abound to prove that this assumption is valid. for example, the works of olajide, akinlabi and tijani (2012); aiyedogbon and ohwofasa, (2012); adesina, (2013); and oduwole, (2015), reported that poverty rate and youth unemployment are the key factors leading youths to robbery, drug and human trafficking, terrorism, cybercrime, kidnapping, pipeline vandalism, and other social vices thus halting socio-economic development in nigeria. thus, in order to get a lasting solution to the challenge of unemployment and poverty rate in nigeria, the government must aggressively carry out youth empowerment schemes. this is because, youth empowerment programmes offer a good platform for engaging the youths in different vocational training and participation in diverse skill acquisition programmes that could ramify them from social vices while engaging them in meaningful socio-economic developmental and capacity building activities, and social bonding. therefore, nigeria grapples with the problem of unemployment among youths in the country (abefe-balogun, 2015), the federal and state governments have designed and implemented several empowerment programmes particularly in agriculture to enhance the economic capacity of youths (umeh and odo, 2002). such programmes include but not limited to the youth initiative for sustainable agriculture (yisa), national poverty eradication programme (napep), youth integrated training farm (kwara state), graduate farmers scheme (osun state), youth empowerment scheme (o-yes) agricultural youths empowerment scheme (agric-yes), and youth empowerment scheme of oyo state (yes-o). this study is principally focused on the youth empowerment scheme (yes), inaugurated by the agricultural and rural management training institute in conjunction with the federal government of nigeria in 2013 with the aim of training and empowering unemployed youths in agricultural related business. yes is a federal government sponsored program designed to equip youths with agripreneurship skills which would prepare the beneficiaries with the tools to create job opportunities and become self-reliant after the empowerment cycle. unfortunately, several studies show that the present empowerment schemes in nigeria might not yield the expected results if the program content is not designed in a way that would enable the youths to participate effectively in resolving nigeria’s protracted development challenges (aiyedogbon and ohwofasa, 2014). furthermore, experience has shown that government empowerment programmes barely outlive the administration that initiated them. in addition, the nation is currently in a serious economic mess in the form of a dwindling economic fortune, brought about partly by the covid-19 pandemic. the implication is that the sustainability of the programme could be greatly hampered as a result of the economic downturn. the resultant effects of the dwindling economic fortune is expected to negatively affect government’s agricultural empowerment programmes (ogunlela, 2015). one therefore begins to wonder how the government will cope with sustaining the programmes in the face of the current economic realities. the need therefore arises to determine whether the yes programme is insulated from other future unforeseen circumstances and unpredicted changes such as market dynamics, regime change, and instability in policies of government, which may occur upon the expiration of the incumbent administration. evaluating the sustainability of the programme will offer guidance and help to ensure that the overall goal of bringing about a sustainable development in the agricultural sector through youth empowerment is achieved. going by the foregoing, the study sought to achieve the following objectives; 1. identify the benefits derived from the youth empowerment scheme by the respondents; 2. examine perceived sustainability of the programme and 3. determine constraints to the sustainability of the youth empowerment scheme. hypothesis ho1: there is no significant relationship between benefits, and constraints faced by beneficiaries of the scheme and perceived sustainability of the scheme. 2. methodology the population for the study comprises all beneficiaries of the youth empowerment scheme from year 2015 through the year 2019. the determination of sampling frame was based on the information gathered from the desk officer of the programme at the agricultural and rural management training institute, ilorin. the table 1 below presents information on the sampling frame. table 1. selection of respondents for the study year sampling frame of beneficiaries beneficiaries randomly selected at (50%) each number of copies of questionnaires retrieved 2015 52 26 22 2016 48 24 24 2017 45 23 19 2018 53 27 25 2019 49 24 22 total 247 124 112 source: field survey, 2020 a three-stage sampling technique was used in the selec28 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 tion of respondents for the study. the first stage involves the purposive selection of beneficiaries of the programme between the year 2015 and 2019. for the second stage, the list of beneficiaries of the programme was gotten from the desk officer of the programme. from the list, systematic random sampling technique was used to select 50% of the beneficiaries of the programme in each year under consideration. in all, a total of one hundred and twenty-four respondents were selected for the study. however, only one hundred and twelve questionnaires were retrieved, indicating a response rate of 90%. descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data collected through questionnaire administration. sustainability was considered as perceived sustainability and measured by providing respondents with a set of 26 statements on sustainability in four main domains (economic, political, ownership and technical) using 5-point likerttype scale of strongly agree = 5, agree = 4, undecided = 3, disagree = 2 and strongly disagree = 1. sustainability index was computed and the empowerment scheme was categorised as sustainable and unsustainable using mean (x̅ = 60.5) as benchmark. constraints to sustainability were measured as either a constraint = 1 or not a constraint = 0. mean was obtained and used to rank constraints according to severity. 3. results and discussion results from table 2 reveals that the mean age of respondents was 34.5years, showing that the respondents were indeed in their youthful years, energetic, vibrant and an investment in them is worth it because youths are the future of every society. the result further shows that the programmes in each state captured youths, who are the intended beneficiaries especially within the context of prolonged youth age and postponed transition to adulthood. youths are generally known for their activeness and energy to which odubola (2009) asserted that it makes them more viable for agricultural activities. more males (63.4%) were involved in the empowerment scheme than the female counterpart (36.6%). the result affirms the commonly held notion that agriculture is male dominated, owing to its energy demanding nature. this agrees with the finding of oladele and kareem (2003) that males are readily available for energy demanding jobs like agriculture. majority of the respondents (64.3%) were graduates which is understandable considering that the programme was specifically designed to enhance the capacity of graduate youth. however, the inclusion of beneficiaries with secondary education shows that the programme does not discriminate based on someone’s educational status. this is also pointing to the fact that many criteria might have been used in the selection of the beneficiaries, with consideration given to some non-graduates table 2. distribution of respondents’ personal characteristics (n = 112) variable frequency percentage age (years) 20 and below 4 3.60 21 – 30 46 41.1 31 – 40 53 47.3 above 40 9 8.0 mean age 34.5 sex male 71 63.4 female 41 36.6 education secondary 6 5.36 tertiary 72 64.3 postgraduate 34 30.3 marital status single 81 72.3 married 31 27.7 membership of association yes 78 69.4 no 34 30.6 112 100.0 source: field survey, 2020 3.1 benefits derived by respondents from the programmes table 3 shows that while 98.2% of the respondents indicated skill acquisition as one of the key benefits derived from the scheme. the result is not surprising considering that participants are taught requisite farming skills during the training exercises with relevant backup practicals through which they are empowered for self-sustenance. all agricultural activities inculcates practical training to the recipients, thus acquisition of skill in this programme will make respondents to be self-sufficient in all areas of life thus encouraging sustainability of the programme. the resultis consistent with tijani (2018), who reported that training through skill acquisition and capacity building programmes will enhance the sustainability of the youths in different fields of endeavour. agriculture is widely known to provide employment to people, to which 88.4% of the participants attested to. employment opportunities generated during the training programme will no doubt traslate to a means of alleviating poverty to which 79.5% of the respondents agrees with. hence, agriculture is a field of study that prepare people for gainful employment and enables one to carry out successfully a socially “useful occupation. table 3 also shows that 90.2% of the respondents indicated access to capital as one of the benefits of the scheme. this is understandable considering the fact that the scheme works in synergy with the bank of agriculture so as to help trained youths get access to loan with single digit interest rate after submitting a business plan carefully examined by doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.384 29 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 facilitators in armti. the government helps these youths open an account with the bank of agriculture, depositing two hundred thousand naira (#200,000.00) each into these accounts. these enables the beneficiaries to then access loan to the tune of two million naira (#2,000,000.00). for some set however, the government simply gave out starter packs consisting of one hundred laying birds, feeds, drugs, and a cash of one hundred thousand naira (#100,000.00). other benefits from the scheme are linkage to market (70.5%) and linkage to input suppliers (81.2%). table 3. distribution of respondents accroding to benefits derived from the scheme benefits derived frequency percentage poverty alleviation 89 79.5 access to capital 101 90.2 skill acquisition 110 98.2 positive change in attitude towards agriculture 106 94.6 provision of job opportunities 99 88.4 boost self-esteem and confidence 84 75.0 linkage to market 79 70.5 linkage to input supplier 91 81.2 multiple responses source: field survey, 2020 3.2 perceived sustainability of the programme the result from table 4 reveals the beneficiaries’ perception of the sustainability of youth empowerment scheme by armti. as per economic sustainability, statement on access to factors of production such as land, capital and inputs had the highest mean (x̅ = 3.90) while the statement that some beneficiaries seem to be after the grants promised by the government rather than being trained to be self-reliant had the lowest mean (x̅ = 3.22). such set of beneficiaries can be likened to free-riders who, according to albert (2000), are usually the unintended beneficiaries of a socially provided public good. these people are usually seen channelling any grant received into other non-agricultural ventures. table 4 also shows the result on the perception of beneficiaries on the political sustainability of the scheme. it was found that the statement that more relevant government policies need to be enacted to support the programme for its survival had the highest mean score (x̅ = 4.32). this result is in tandem with odubola (2009) who pointed out uncertainty over the political environment to support programme continuity in the country, a trend that keeps recurring as a result of a systemic policy problem and continues to be a bane to effective agricultural development. as per ownership sustainability, table 4 reveals that the statement on beneficiaries benefitting more when there is a positive programme outcome had the highest mean score (x̅ = 3.90). this will no doubt give beneficiaries the impression that they are major stakeholders in the scheme. this would in turn make them work tireless towards ensuring that the objectives of the scheme are achieved. furthermore, table 4 shows the perception of respondents on the technical sustainability of the scheme. it was revealed that statements that the beneficiaries could take advantage of cooperatives formed to access more government table 4. perceived sustainability of the youth empowerment scheme perceived sustainability mean economic sustainability 1. expansion for increased profitability may not be possible in my business enterprise without continuous help from government. 2. my enterprise may be incapable of meeting my needs if there is no further support from government. 3. some beneficiaries seem to be after the grants promised by the government rather than being trained to be self-reliant. 4. access to factors of production such as land, capital and inputs could be a challenge if government fails to provide them. ownership sustainability 5. the government is willing to bear the loss in case of negative outcomes. 6. the programme appears to benefit all, despite party affiliations. 7. beneficiaries benefit more when there is positive result. 8. it appears beneficiaries cannot make decision on the enterprise without approval from the government 9. the programme may be a sheer waste of time of beneficiaries as people view the programme as political campaign rather than to empower them technical sustainability 10. there seems to be adequate resources to empower the beneficiaries. 11. infrastructures appear to be available to be used by beneficiaries. 12. there ought to be a special task force established to recommend areas requiring improvement in the programme. 13. the beneficiaries could take advantage of cooperatives formed to access more governmental support 14. the programme could have done better in equipping beneficiaries with the skills to undertake agricultural projects. 15. the experience gathered looks insufficient to manage and maintain a bigger farm enterprise 16. the programme may not achieve set objectives as it is a means to perpetrate corruption by the federal government 17. beneficiaries seem capable to source market for produce if government fails to buy. 18. non-governmental organisations (ngos) should get more involved in the programme. political sustainability 19. there seem to be laws in place to ensure the continuity of the programme from one regime to another. 20. government seems committed to building on the successes of the programme. 21. the government seems to be fulfilling all its promises, to ensure success of the programme. 22. the programme may be scrapped as soon as the incumbent government leaves office. 23. the programme might fail because many of the achievements claimed are untrue. 24. the programme is seen to be more of political propaganda; therefore, it may be discontinued by next government. 25. constitutional amendment processes are required to scrap the programme 26. more relevant government policies need to be enacted to support the programme for its survival. 3.78 3.82 3.22 3.90 2.81 2.22 3.90 1.90 3.12 2.60 2.08 4.08 4.11 3.89 3.74 3.43 2.01 4.04 2.90 3.99 2.94 3.52 3.58 2.20 3.12 4.32 source: field survey, 2020 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.384 30 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 support (x̅ = 4.11) had the highest mean, with statement that there ought to be a special task force established to recommend areas requiring improvement in the programme (x̅ = 4.08) and statement that non-governmental organisations (ngos) should get more involved in the programme (x̅ = 4.04) ranking 2nd and 3rd respectively. table 5. categorisation of perceived sustainability of the youth empowerment scheme sustainability percentage minimum maximum mean unsustainable (below mean) 36.6 47.0 88.5 64.5 sustainable (mean and above) 63.4 field survey, 2020 3.3 constraints to the sustainability of the scheme table 6 reveals inadequate funding/support by the government as the major constraint affecting the sustainability of the scheme. this is because fund is essential to the success of any project/activities without which the empowerment programme will drag, there will be lack of equipment or facilities to organise the training effectively, payment of trainers and money to support the trainees to take-off, put what was learnt into practice and this will greatly affect sustainability of the programme. other major constraints are: poor post-empowerment support by the government; uncertainty over the political environment to support continuity; inadequate monitoring and evaluation of the beneficiaries; negative attitude of other beneficiaries during training; and favouritism in the process of selecting beneficiaries as they ranked 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th respectively. this result is consistent with the findings of tijani (2018) who pointed out inadequate funding, uncertainty over the political environment to support continuity of programmes and regime change as major constraints militating against the sustainability of government programmes. in nigeria in particular, regime change implies non funding or scraping of programmes initiated by the previous government no matter how laudable they are thus, resulting in collapse of such programmes. hence, lack of continuity in government programme(s) means unsustainability of the programme. these findings are quite germane as salako and badmus (2014) stated that most government’s empowerment programmes often fail to achieve the targeted goal due to inadequate funding. relating to policy issue, international institute of tropical agriculture (iita) (2005) advanced that overtime policy instability, policy inconsistencies, narrow base of policy formulation, poor policy implementation and weak institutional framework for policy coordination have remained constraints to effective agricultural development. all the constraints identified by the respondents revolved round the issue of funding such as monitoring and evaluation that involve cost of transportation, feeding and sometimes accommodation. in line with these, tijani (2018) asserted that government does not usually give programme participants support such as grant or loan to establish their own enterprises and also fail to provide an enabling environment after conclusion of programmes. additionally, it is reported that government employment programmes do not always have adequate supervision (akinremi and sonaiya, 2009), which results in poor service delivery. 3.4 test of hypothesis table 7 shows that a significant relationship exist between constraints and perceived sustainability of the youth empowerment scheme. by implication, constraints such as insufficient funding, poor post-empowerment support, uncertainty over the political environment to support continuity amongst others will threaten the sustainability of the programme. for instance, insufficient fund can affect acquisition of inputs, hiring of labour, transportation of output to the market thereby threatening involvement and or sustainable production. this is supported by the findings of adekunle, adefalu, oladipo, adisa and fatoye (2009) that several constraints faced by the youths are responsible for their low level of involvement in agriculture. also, table 7 further shows that sustainability of table 6. constraints to the sustainability of the scheme constraints mean rank negative attitude of other beneficiaries during training 0.62 5th inadequate fund or capital support by the government. 0.87 1st programme is fraught with excessive bureaucracy 0.51 7th inadequate monitoring and evaluation of the beneficiaries 0.66 4th poor response of agricultural knowledge and information system to beneficiaries’ challenges 0.48 10th inability to benefit from agricultural knowledge and information systems 0.42 11th uncertainty over the political environment to support continuity 0.72 3rd poor post-empowerment support by the government 0.77 2nd inadequate access to agricultural knowledge and information system 0.49 8th lack of market for produce as envisaged 0.49 8th favouritism in the process of selecting beneficiaries 0.58 6th source: field survey, 2020 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.384 31 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 the scheme is dependent on the benefits derived by the respondents. loan/credit to set up the business as well as ready market for the output can serve as incentives for continuous involvement in the programme. this is in line with ogunleye et al (2014) that the benefit offered by any programme will determine its sustainability. table 7. relationship between benefits, and constraints faced by beneficiaries of the scheme and perceived sustainability of the programme. variable r-value p-value benefits 0.382* 0.000 constraints 0.462* 0.002 *p≤ 0.05 4. conclusion and recommendations the study concluded that the youth empowerment scheme from armti was not without its shortcomings as identified by the beneficiaries. however, majority of the beneficiaries of the scheme agreed the training programme was successful. the programme’s aim of imparting skill, changing of attitude of the youth to agriculture as a vocation was significantly achieved. the programme was laudable and impactful, and respondents found the youth empowerment scheme to be sustainable based on economic, political, technical and ownership criteria of international fund for agricultural development (ifad 2007). in lieu of the foregoing, the following recommendations were made: • subsequent programme should be gender sensitive in order to balance male to female enrolment. • government, development experts and donor agencies must ensure that sustainability of programme is taken into cognizance at every level of the programme and efforts must be put into incorporation of monitoring and evaluation from the beginning so as to prevent wastage of resources. • there is an urgent need to ensure appropriate legislation so as to insulate the programme from political shocks that may come as a result of change in government. references [1] adesina o.s (2013). unemployment and security challenges in nigeria. international journal of humanities and social science, vol. 3 no. 7. [2] abefe-balogun, b. (2015). osun state youth empowerment scheme: a key to sustainable development. journal of economics and sustainable development 6(9): 260-267. [3] afolayan o.s.m and ajibade l.t (2012). temporal variation in perennial cash crops production in ondo state, nigeria. asian journal of natural and applied sciences, vol. 1 no. 3. [4] aiyedogbon and ohwofasa, (2012): role of youths in agriculture development in makurdi local government area, benue state, nigeria. journal of agricultural extension, vol. 13, pp. 40-45. [5] akinremi, s. and sonaiya, a. (2009). rural-urban socio economic link; the example of migration is modern migration in west africa. oxford university of press, london, p129. [6] international institute of tropical agriculture (iita) (2005). agriculture in nigeria: identifying opportunities for increased commercialization and investment. [7] odubola, p. (2009). prospecting for strategic advantage: the proactive entrepreneurial personality and small firm innovation. journal of small business management, new york. vol 40.pp. 85-97. [8] oduwole, t. a. (2015). youth unemployment and poverty in nigeria. international journal of sociology and anthropology research. vol.1, no. 2, european centre for research training and development uk (www.eajournals.org). [9] ogunlela, j. (2015). perspective: putting osun state’s salary challenge in a fairer context. the nation newspaper, nigeria. retrieved online from www.the nation online ng.net july 3rd 2015. [10] oladele, i. o., and kareem, a. i. (2003). adoption rate and continued use of selected arable crop technologies among farmers in oyo state. journal of food, agriculture and environment. 3: 291-294 [11] olajide o.t, akinlabi b.h, tijani a.a (2012). agriculture resource and economic growth in nigeria. european scientific journal. vol. no. 22. [12] oyesola o.b and obabire i.e (2011). farmers’ perceptions of organic farming in selected local government areas of ekiti state, nigeria. journal of organic systems, 6 (1). [13] salako, a. and badmus, o. p. (2014). strategic management of small firms in hostile and benign environments. strategic management journal, 10, 75-87. [14] tijani, s. a. (2018): sustainability of the youth agriculture empowerment programmes in osun and oyo states, nigeria. nigerian journal of rural sociology vol. 18, no. 2, 2018. [15] umeh, g. n., and odo, b. i. (2002). profitability of poultry production among school leavers in anocha local government area of anambra state, nigeria. nigeria journal of animal production 29: 76-80. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.384 11 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae summary of sc tcm agricultural soil ecological restoration major scientific and technological innovation engineering technology hongfeng sun*　hongwei luan beijing world science and technology research and development center for productivity, beijing, 102600, china article info abstract article history received: 19 march 2020 revised: 26 march 2020 accepted: 24 april 2020 published online: 30 april 2020 the paper focuses on the major scientific and technological innovation engineering technology of sc tcm agricultural land ecological restoration. the core technology system of sc tcm agricultural soil ecological restoration major scientific and technological innovation project consists of a number of cutting-edge advanced technologies from four aspects: “century tianwang” high-concentration nano-bio-organic fertilizer, high-concentration nano-bio-organic-inorganic slow-release compound fertilizer, “century tianwang” nano-soil special repair material; “century tianwang” botanical pesticide residue degradation agent; sod rumex planting and breeding cycle technology. keywords: sc tcm agricultural soil ecological restoration technological innovation engineering 　 1. introduction sc tcm agricultural soil ecological restoration major scientific and technological innovation project is the chairman of the executive committee of the international academician consortium, commended by the united nations wcps organization, and won the “100 outstanding inventors of the 60th anniversary of the founding of the people’s republic of china” and “productivity science of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the people’s republic of china” “field meritorious scientist” honorary title, founder of “plant nutritional growth and reproductive growth balance theory”, world-famous scientist known as “father of fertilizers in china”, academician sun cheng of world academy of productivity science (waps) and chen yanxi of china agricultural university , mei ruhong, wang qi and other academicians and experts and their teams developed the latest major scientific and technological achievements in soil ecological restoration. among them, “saline-alkali soil fertilizer and salt balance bio-nano improvement technology” has been listed as a key research and development project of shandong province in 2019. tcm agriculture received the focus of the united nations food and agriculture organization (fao) at the 15th world congress of traditional chinese medicine. the sc tcm agricultural soil ecological restoration project is a major scientific and technological innovation project that adopts the principles and methods of tcm and cross-border integration of agriculture. academician sun cheng’s major invention patent technology achievement, listed as the national key new product plan project and the national high-tech industry key demonstration project, the upgrade of the national key new product plan project, and the innovation; it is the professional invention patent technology of academician sun cheng the brand “century tianwang” high-concentration nadoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.163 *corresponding author: hongfeng sun, beijing world science and technology research and development center for productivity, 102600, china; e-mail: wcpscc@vip.sina.com 12 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 no-bio-organic fertilizer, nano-biological soil special repair agent, nano-plant-derived pesticide residue degradation agent, basic particle microecological preparation, sod sorrel planting and breeding cycle science is deeply integrated, producing a huge comprehensive effect in the world the latest high-end technological achievements. it is the resource utilization of organic solid wastes such as livestock manure, straw, sludge, domestic garbage, and agricultural and sideline products that have undergone harmless treatment. it is the comprehensive practical application of the technical achievements of a number of invention patents such as “century tianwang” bio-organic fertilizer by academician sun cheng, “a new technology for production of eco-friendly and environmentally friendly compound fertilizer controlled and slow-released”, “a contaminated soil remediation composition”, etc., has formed industrialization. more than 30 enterprises across the country have introduced the technological achievements and established the “century tianwang” production line, which is now called “hubei fengyi fertilizer co., ltd.”, “hubei ruidi biological technology co., ltd., companies such as “beijing gutian fertilizer co., ltd.” and “jiangxi qijia fertilizer co., ltd.” have formed the largest organic-inorganic slow-release compound fertilizer enterprise alliance in china, the “century tianwang enterprise alliance”. the core technology system of sc tcm agricultural soil ecological restoration major scientific and technological innovation project consists of a number of cutting-edge advanced technologies, mainly including. 2 “century tianwang” high-concentration nano-bio-organic fertilizer, high-concentration nano-bio-organic-inorganic slow-release compound fertilizer 2.1 main features “three nos”, “three highs”, “two completes” and “one degradation”. ① “three noes”: non-toxic, harmless, and odorless; ② “three highs”: the product contains high nutrients, high organic matter, and high humic acid; ③ “comprehensiveness”: fertilizer has all nutrients and fertilizer functions; ④ “one degradation”: it can degrade chemical pesticide residues. 2.2 main technical routes and innovation points ① nano slow-release technology is combined with agricultural microbial technology. fertilizer products contain a multi-functional nano-organic compound integrating urease inhibition, nitrification inhibition, ammonia stabilization and plant growth regulation, and a special effect “st highly concentrated compound microbial bacteria”, which can greatly improve fertilizer nutrient utilization , reduce the salt index in fertilizers, adjust ph value, stimulate crop growth and enhance crop resistance. ② combination of organic and inorganic. improve soil organic matter, improve soil aggregate structure, increase crop organic matter, and reduce agricultural environmental pollution. ③ integration of medicine and fertilizer. add “pesticide degradation antidote” and yiwei sod microecological preparation extracted from pure natural plant source chinese herbal medicine to fertilizer to kill insects and bacteria, and degrade pesticide residues. ④ advanced, scientific and reasonable formula. according to the theory of “yin and yang balance” and “nutrition balance” in traditional chinese medicine, following the balanced proportional relationship between plant nutrition growth and reproductive growth, design advanced, scientific and reasonable fertilizer formulas for various crops. 2.3 application effect ① the fertilizer utilization rate is increased by more than 30%; ② the amount of chemical fertilizer applied is reduced by 30%-40%; ③ the utilization rate of organic resources is increased by 30%-40%; ④ improve soil organic matter by 5%-10%; ⑤ increase the yield of grain crops by 10%-20%; increase the yield of vegetables, fruits and cash crops by 20%-30%; ⑥ 90%-100% degradation of pesticide residues; reduction of pesticide application by 80%-90%; ⑦ the land output rate is increased by more than 30%; ⑧ reduce agricultural fertilizer costs by 30%-50%; ⑨ the fertilizer salt index is low, and the application is safe and reliable; ⑩ strengthen crop resistance, drought resistance, cold resistance, water saving, lodging resistance, prevention and control of various diseases and insect pests. 3 “century tianwang” nano-soil special repair material “century tianwang” nano-soil special remediation materials, including “saline-alkali land special remediation materials”, “heavy metal contaminated farmland doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.163 13 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 special remediation materials”, “petroleum contaminated farmland special remediation materials”, “desertified land special remediation materials”, “secondary contaminated land” “special repair materials” series of special soil repair materials. “century tianwang” special nano-remediation material for soil is the latest major issue that has been successfully developed for a series of major issues such as the improvement of saline-alkali land, the treatment of heavy metal contaminated farmland, the treatment of oil-contaminated farmland, the restoration of secondary polluted farmland, desertified land, and the restoration of compacted soil with reduced organic matter technological achievements. “century tianwang” special nano-remediation material for soil is a contaminated soil remediation composition. it is composed of a natural nanometer that integrates nitrification inhibition, urease inhibition, ammonia stabilization, pest control, disease elimination, pesticide residue reduction, and plant growth regulation. organic compounds, “century tianwang” fertilizer nano slow-release agent, “st high-efficiency concentrated compound microbial special fungus”, “yiwei sod microecological preparation” “native natural humic acid”, chinese herbal medicine plant source extracts and nano-functional nutrient materials it is the basic raw material, processed by a specific process. “century tianwang” special nano-remediation material for soil is a special high-tech material for soil remediation, chemical pesticides, fertilizer reduction and efficiency enhancement. it is a major invention patent technical achievement of academician sun cheng and a national key new product plan project “century tian the core technology material of “wang bio-organic fertilizer”. the restoration material is not only pollution-free and residue-free, but also effectively degrades the original pesticide residues in the soil, removes harmful metals, and improves soil organic matter. “century tianwang” soil-specific nano-remediation materials have special effects on the transformation of saline-alkali soils. it can improve the soil’s ability to adsorb molecular and ionic substances, promote the combined force of fertilizer and salt balance to adsorb and transform salt, effectively reduce the salt index, reduce salt content, adjust acid-base balance, improve soil salt resistance, and improve the soil structure of saline-alkali soils. improve soil organic matter. “century tianwang” soil-specific nano-remediation materials play an important role in the restoration of heavy metal-contaminated farmland and the treatment of desertified land. mainly manifested in that, on the one hand, it can directly interact with the heavy metal ions in the soil physically and chemically, affecting their form, migration, transformation and biological effectiveness in the environment, thereby fixing heavy metals and reducing their activity; on the other hand, applying to the soil after that, it can effectively improve soil structure and properties, such as soil organic matter content and ph value, and improve the soil’s own buffer and fixation capacity for heavy metals. in addition, due to the increase of organic matter content, it promotes the formation of soil aggregates and water storage, water retention, and fertilizer retention, which have special effects on desertified land management. among the soil remediation materials, the natural plant-derived extracts of chinese herbal medicines have special effects on soil deworming and detoxification, effectively degrading residual pesticides such as organic phosphorus, carbamates, and sulfonylureas in the soil, with a degradation rate of over 90%. “century tianwang” special nano-remediation material for soil, matched with agricultural fertilizers, and applied at the same time, has a huge effect on fertilizer reduction and efficiency. compared with the traditional application of chemical fertilizers and compound fertilizers, the application amount of chemical fertilizers and compound fertilizers can be reduced by more than 50%. most types of crops can be exempted from pesticides, and some special fruit and vegetable crops can also be reduced by more than 80%. food crops can increase production by more than 10%, and vegetables and fruits can increase production by 20% to 30%. the reason why it can achieve the effect of reducing fertilization and increasing efficiency is mainly because the “century tianwang” soil special nano-remediation material, when used in conjunction with fertilizers, can enable plants to perform photosynthesis, chlorophyll synthesis, protein synthesis, and enzyme activities during the day. in good condition, it promotes the metabolism and growth of plants; the nano-compounds in the soil-specific nano-release agent have strong ammonia-fixing ability, which can effectively inhibit the formation of nitrate nitrogen in the soil, inhibit the activity of nitrifying bacteria, and increase soil colloids the adsorption strength of the clay particles to ammonia ions and sodium ions can not only reduce the salt-alkali concentration, but also enable the slow release of nutrient elements in the soil, reduce nutrient element loss, improve fertilizer utilization, and meet plant nutrient elements. soil-specific nano-remediation materials are used in conjunction with fertilizers. due to the action of microorganisms and humic acid, they not only effectively increase soil organic matter, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.163 14 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 improve soil structure, and promote plant growth, but also increase the activity of crop catalase and reduce cell membrane permeability. and abscisic acid content, thereby enhancing crop resistance, flood resistance, drought resistance, cold resistance, lodging resistance, resistance to diseases and insect pests. 4 “century tianwang” botanical pesticide residue degradation agent as an important means of agricultural production, chemical pesticides play an important role in curbing plant diseases, insect pests and weeds and reducing agricultural production losses. however, long-term excessive and unreasonable application of chemical pesticides has also caused serious impacts on human production, life and the ecological environment. the resulting quality and safety of agricultural products, decline in the quality of cultivated land, agricultural non-point source pollution, sudden increase in malignant diseases and environmental hormone problems have caused highly anticipated. organophosphorus pesticides are widely used, especially in the field of pesticides, accounting for more than 70% of the total pesticides. the utilization rate of pesticides applied in farmland is 38.8%. most of the pesticides diffuse into the environment, enter the human body through the water vapor cycle and the food chain, and endanger health. moreover, because a large amount of pesticides remain in the soil, they have become an important factor in agricultural non-point source pollution. one. pesticide degradation can be divided into physical methods, chemical methods, and biological methods. however, due to factors such as application conditions, use costs, and technological maturity, it has not been promoted and applied on a large scale, especially in agricultural production. there is no precedent. at present, biological methods are considered to be an ideal method to reduce pesticide residues due to their significant effect of degrading pesticide residues and low environmental impact. in particular, the screening of pesticide degrading bacteria and the research and development of application technologies have achieved significant research results, but these technologies still in the laboratory research and development stage. “century tianwang” botanical pesticide residue degradation agent, is a team member of the famous scientist academician sun cheng, researcher sun jun, and dr. zhang tongxin. it took 12 years to develop a major invention patent technology achievement. “century tianwang” botanical pesticide residue degradation agent, based on the principle of enzymatic degradation of pesticides, pioneered a unique way, based on the theory of traditional chinese medicine, prescriptions and years of application practice, to screen and develop plant sources with rapid and efficient degradation effects on organophosphorus pesticides the active ingredients, through indoor testing and field verification, have significant effects, realize the cross-border integration of modern agriculture and traditional chinese medicine, and provide a good technical path and basic data support for exploring and applying the concept of chinese medicine to promote the harmonious development of “production, life and ecology”. it has important scientific research and application value. “century tianwang” botanical pesticide residue degradation agent, through the mass production and field practice application cases of shandong rongjian biotechnology company, has conducted field tests on a large area of various crops for many years, and it has shown that it is effective against organophosphorus and carbamates. and sulfonylurea (herbicide) pesticides have a significant degradation effect, and the degradation rate is extremely fast. the degradation rates of chlorpyrifos and parathion organophosphorus pesticides reached 93.2% and 92.9% within 2 minutes; the degradation rates of aldicarb and carbofuran amino acid lipid pesticides reached 87.5% and 85.1%; passed the pesticide the residue rapid test method showed that the degradation rate of dichlorvos within 17h was 66.67%, and the degradation rate of chlorpyrifos was 48.69% within 11h. the application of “century tianwang” botanical pesticide residue degradation agent has great application value in the fields of soil remediation, agricultural product safety, water body and environmental biological clinics, and it also provides a new technological path for the rapid degradation of chemical pesticides. . the use of plant enzyme clusters to rapidly degrade chemical pesticides completely solves the problems of soil pesticide residue pollution and pesticide residues in ground products, and creates a new era of green ecological agriculture. detoxification of contaminated farmland soil is the most critical first step in soil remediation. the remaining chemical pesticides are not eliminated, which will seriously affect the survival rate and biological activity of the microbial flora, resulting in a significant decrease in the repair effect of subsequent use of biological bacterial fertilizer and organic fertilizer. and “century tianwang” botanical pesticide residue degradation agent and “century tianwang” high-concentration nano-bio-organic fertilizer, high-concentration bio-organic-inorganic slow-release compound fertilizer, soil bio-nano-special repair agent and other products are used in a complementary manner. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.163 15 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 formed the “sc tcm agricultural soil ecological restoration new technology” system to achieve the best effect of soil restoration. it can not only degrade pesticide residues, but also improve soil organic matter, increase crop yields, improve crop quality, and realize modern ecological agriculture green, environmentally friendly, economical and efficient. 5 sod rumex planting and breeding cycle technology the sod sorrel planting and breeding cycle technology is a huge achievement made by academicians and experts of china agricultural university such as chen yanxi, mei ruhong, wang qi and their teams. the cumulative application area in china has reached 1.5 billion mu. team members wang qi, chen bi, mei the three professors of ruhong were awarded the commemorative medals for “celebrating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the people’s republic of china”. the implementation of the sc tcm agricultural soil ecological restoration major scientific and technological innovation project is aimed at the practical problems of large investment, slow response, and low efficiency in the restoration of contaminated land such as saline-alkali and desertified land. the sod sorrel planting and breeding cycle technology is used to plant high-sod-tolerant plants. the sorrel has a return that year and produces higher economic benefits. there are wild sorrel in all parts of northern china. its scientific name is sorrel, nicknamed sorrel leaves. it can be used as chinese herbal medicine. the sorrel in this project is a hybrid variety introduced by china from ukraine. it is cultivated and selected by the international academician consortium and the team of academicians of the institute of plant ecological engineering of china agricultural university. it has a high content of superoxide dismutase sod and has high added value. the latest plant varieties. the effects of sorrel against saline and alkali and improving soil are mainly manifested in: one is to adjust the ph value of the soil, the huge root metabolism of rumex sorrel, a large number of stems and leaves fall into the soil, after decomposition, under the action of the rhizosphere microorganisms and rhizosphere microorganisms of sorrel, various organic acids are produced, which play a role in soil alkalinity neutralize and reduce ph value; the second is to change the water and salt conditions and accelerate soil desalination. the soil salt balance depends on the growth and decline of evaporation and leaching capacity. when the increased amount is greater than the leaching amount, salt accumulates, otherwise desalination occurs. the luxuriant clusters of sorrel leaves basically cover all the ground, which can change the field microclimate and reduce surface water evaporation and salt accumulation. the third is to increase the soil aggregate structure and the number of microorganisms. the beneficial microorganisms in the root system of sorrel, such as nitrifying bacteria and aerobic fiber decomposing bacteria, have increased significantly; the fourth is to increase soil nutrient content. due to the well-developed root system of sorrel, the biological yield of the above-ground part of sorrel is high, the number of sorrel residues remaining in the soil is also large, and the content of soil organic matter has increased significantly. the soil organic matter of sorrel planted for 4 years can increase by about 0.5%. in addition to high protein, lysine, superoxide dismutase, flavonoids and other nutrients, sorrel is also rich in other nutrients; the fourth is to increase soil nutrient content. due to the well-developed root system of sorrel, the biological yield of the above-ground part of sorrel is high, the number of sorrel residues remaining in the soil is also large, and the content of soil organic matter has increased significantly. the soil organic matter of sorrel planted for 4 years can increase by about 0.5%. in addition to high protein, lysine, superoxide dismutase, flavonoids and other nutrients, sorrel is also rich in other nutrients; fifth, inoculation of rumex with high sod-containing endosymbiont bacillus has a unique effect. sod can effectively remove free radicals in organisms and can disproportionate toxic oxygen free radicals into non-toxic water and oxygen; sixth, reduce the salt index, adjust the osmotic pressure of the soil solution, and enhance crop resistance. rumex itself was introduced into china from ukraine as feed. it has been approved by the global forage variety approval committee and registered as a nationally introduced species in china with registration number 183. sorrel is the most outstanding forage species and the latest forage species with high yield, new type and high protein. the crude fat content of sorrel is significantly higher than that of general pasture, leafy vegetables and stem vegetables. the crude fat content of dry matter is 6.21%, while that of alfalfa is only 3%, spinach is 3%, and cowpea is 2%. the content of crude fiber, vitamins, and minerals in sorrel are also higher than other pasture and vegetable plants. it can be seen that sorrel is a high-quality protein doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.163 16 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 source feed. when changing the saline-alkali land and desertified land, a large number of sorrel is planted and processed into green silo feed and pelleted protein feed to supply the livestock and animal breeding industry, which is conducive to promoting the economic development of recycling agriculture. rumex can not only be deep-processed into sod-rich high-protein feed, allowing people to eat healthy meat, eggs, milk and other animal functional foods, but also, because sod is currently recognized as the only beneficial and harmless antioxidant in the world, it is harmful free radical killer. therefore, the sc tcm agricultural soil ecological restoration academician expert team has the conditions for soil ecological restoration and planting sorrel. according to needs, sorrel sod extraction technology and sorrel inoculation sod inoculant technology can be used to produce sod-rich apples and pears. various sod fruits such as, peach, strawberry, corn, rice, wheat and other sod-rich food crops and various sod beverages, enhance human immunity, improve human health, and contribute to the construction of a human public health and health community. references [1] xiao fan. “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” unlocks new agricultural science and technology skills [j]. china rural science and technology, 2018:.36-37. [2] meng xia. “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” opens up a new path of characteristic ecological agriculture [j]. farmer science and technology training, 2017(02): 38-39. [3] wang yanqun. research on the technology and effect of soil ecological environment restoration in facility farmland [d]. baoding: hebei agricultural university, 2005. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.163 29 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.347 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae articulating the effect of pesticides use and sustainable development goals (sdgs): the science of improving lives through decision impacts morufu olalekan raimi1*　tonye vivien odubo2　ogah alima3　henry akpojubaro efegbere4　abinotami williams ebuete2 1.department of community medicine, environmental health unit, faculty of clinical sciences, niger delta university, wilberforce island, bayelsa state, nigeria. 2.department of geography and environmental management, niger delta university, nigeria. 3.school of health and life sciences, teesside university, middlesbrough, united kingdom. 4.department of community medicine, edo university, iyamho, edo state, nigeria. article info abstract article history received: 1 february 2021 accepted: 8 february 2021 published online: 30 march 2021 nothing vast comes into a mortal’s life without a curse. identifying the pathways of pesticide impact can be multifaceted as well as complex, as humankind faces the magnificent challenge of food systems reconfiguration toward providing and delivering healthy foods that individuals can access while protecting planetary health. ideally, chemical pesticides used inappropriately in agricultural activities has shaped serious health as well as environmental problems in the global south. the united nations environment program (unep) as well as world health organization (who) approximate that the rates of pesticide poisoning occur 2-3 times per minute, having roughly 20,000 employees dying yearly from exposure, mostly in emerging countries. from an environmental point of view, “chemically-polluted runoff” comes through fields that pollute both ground as well as surface waters, destroying freshwater ecosystems, damaged fisheries, as well as creating growing and sustainable "dead zones" in the coastal areas near the river’s mouths of the drain agricultural areas. the environmental as well as health hazards resulting from pesticides could remain comparatively avoided through education as the first step towards achieving the sdgs as well as creating sustainable incentives toward curbing the overuse trend. other important challenges need to be resolved, for example social inclusion; poverty reduction; education, increased equity as well as health care; sustainable energy; conservation of biodiversity; water security; and changing climate adaptation as well as mitigation. these challenges are interlinked as well as embodied in 2030 agenda for sustainable development, which all un member states have accepted since 2015 as well as built round the 17 sustainable development goals (sdgs). therefore, managing the rapid accelerators considerately will need negotiation as well as collaboration from a wide range of civil society sector, private as well as public actors. the time has come toward putting the challenge of sociotechnical innovation as well as massive human ingenuity toward usage to safeguard the next generations as well as the planet future. while, the world is not on the pathway toward realizing its global goals come 2030. prior to the outbreak of covid-19, uneven progress had been witnessed, as well as more focused considerations was required in many areas. the sudden onset of the pandemic abruptly hampered the sdgs implementation and, in other cases, twisted decades of progress backwards. keywords: human ingenuity decision impacts sustainable development goals planetary health pesticides dialogue and cooperation outreach programs nigeria 　 *corresponding author: morufu olalekan raimi; ola07038053786@gmail.com; olamuf001@outlook.com; alima2015@gmail.com 30 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.347 1. introduction just as the year 2020 mark entering of the decade of action toward delivering sustainable development goals (sdgs), it is an important moment to spread the shared vision as well as quicken responses toward the world’s momentous challenges by eradicating poverty as well as hunger due to changing climate (raimi et al., 2018; olalekan et al., 2020; morufu et al., 2021). the outbreak of coronavirus disease pandemic (covid-19) crisis is having an unprecedented disruptions toward global consumer supply chains markets, causing worldwide crude oil prices to drop and a turmoil in worldwide commodities as well as financial markets, wiping out sporting event as well as entertainment activities, shutting down of large swaths of individuals movements in various countries, as well as bans on intercontinental travel/ limitations through important air routes across globe and has triggered the largest recession in 90 years and set back hard earned development progress (gift & olalekan, 2020; gift et al., 2020; samson et al., 2020; raimi et al., 2020; raimi & raimi, 2020; morufu et al., 2021). unless we mobilize and equitably allocate resources for a large-scale, sustainable and sustained crisis response, the sdgs may well be beyond reach. as the outcomes have had a major impact on the livelihoods of households’ as well as business activities, driven by global demand drop, resulting in consumer confidence as well as production slowdown. the exceptional circumstances facing world events in 2020, where we haven’t had a lot of good news, require exceptional approaches, policy as well as decision making in all government spheres, as well as between private sectors and non-profit, remains progressively concentrated on supply chain as well as network issues which exceed governance, disciplinary as well as jurisdictional limits. while, globally, agricultural growth over the next decade is expected to ensure growing food demand as well as increase land competition. agricultural land remains predictable to increase come 2030 with a decrease in population growth as well as crops continue to improve. deforestation at present is on the decline and these activities are estimated to linger, particularly from 2030, while additional demand for agricultural land declines (raimi et al., 2019; olalekan et al., 2019; raimi et al., 2019; isah et al., 2020; raimi et al., 2020; morufu, 2021). there are remarkable developments in demographic differences between regions as well as countries. come 2050, the population of the world is expected to increase from 2.2 billion individuals to around 9.2 billion. much of this development will take place in the middle east, south asia as well as specifically africa (see figure 1 & 2 below). similarly, the population of sub-saharan africa’s is expected to increase over the next 30 years, growing by additional 1billion individuals as well as kept on track toward overtaking central as well as south asia, afterward as per the world’s populous largest region. the south of the sahara indicates high fertility rates meaning such africa region account for above half of worldwide population growth at present and 2050, according to the united nations population division projections report. the population in the regions will continue to grow towards the century end, as the number of individuals living in asia as well as beyond decline. this trend reflects the situation in nigeria, where the population at present surged from 95 million in 1990 to 210 million in 2020 (olalekan et al., 2018; olalekan et al., 2019; olalekan et al., 2020). the population of nigeria’s will double by 400 million come 2050, then it will have surpassed the united states as the third largest inhabited country in the world. in niger, where women have around seven children on average, the highest rate of birth in the world, the projected population almost triple to 66million over the same time period. by 2050, niger is projected to be the only single country in the world having a greater fertility level over a lifetime of four births per woman. figure 1. global population continues to grow but rate of increase slows figure 2. only sub-saharan africa set to sustain rapid population growth 31 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.347 2. pesticide use, population and sustainable development the demographics profiles in every region are ageing, particularly in china, italy as well as countries in the oecd. the populaces are becoming more and more urbanized. come 2050, an additional 2.8 billion people are expected to live in cities more than today, or approximately 70% of the population of the world. over the same period, rural population is expected to decline by 0.6 billion individuals. this rapid urban distribution is projected to spread disproportionately all over the globe. the urban population share in oecd countries are expected to reach 86% of the entire population come 2050. in the global south, one of the smallest urban areas, the urban residents have reached almost 37% of the entire population in 2010, but some are expected to reach 60% come 2050. urban sprawl below 0.5 million populations is expected to grow faster when compared to other urban centers. this will remain a situational change resulting from observation in recent years, as large mega-cities continue to grow at a geometric rate (un habitat, 2006; united nations, 2018). the prompt urbanization growth and industrialization has considerably contributed to pesticides promotion and usage, particularly in emerging countries, which have both the pros as well as cons, even though a population concentration could enable pesticides production as well as usage. as a result, it is often easier for pesticides exposure levels to be higher and could worsen environmental conditions in slums, with serious consequences for human health (morufu et al., 2021; morufu, 2021; isah et al., 2020; olalekan et al., 2020; isah et al., 2020; olalekan et al., 2020; adedoyin et al., 2020; olalekan et al., 2020; sawyerr et al., 2018; adeolu et al., 2018). although demographics dynamics is a key driver of local as well as global environmental change. population growth led to increased natural resources as well as land use consumption, posing additional environmental pressures. variations in wealth as well as age structure likewise change lifestyle, consumption habits as well as diet, which may have a negative effect on the milieu. the population of the world have increased from below 4 billion in 1970 to 7 billion at the moment. come 2050, the united nations estimates the world population to be around 9.2 billion, or 2.2 billion additional individuals (see figure 1 & 2 above). the population forecast discussed above indicate that the use of pesticides worldwide will increase and will basically stabilize by 2050. even though dietary variations remain likely to continue to remain a key factor for the growing agricultural demand production. while, 2015 symbolize a significant breakthrough towards the path to sustainable development. in line with the millennium development goals, a novel cycle of sustainable development goals (sdgs) aims toward guiding national governments as well as international community in their commitment toward achieving a sustainable world, particularly as human activities continue to push earth past its planetary boundaries, the need to accomplish the sustainable development goals (sdgs) becomes more urgent than ever. with more than 800 million individuals remain at present starving, come 2050, worldwide production of food is expected to rise by 50% to feed above 9 billion individuals expected on the planet (food and agriculture organization of the united nations, 2018). the environmental, economic, as well as social issues of our world affect us all, from how we eat to how we work, how we communicate, and how we learn. there is a firmly believe that education is the first step towards achieving the sdgs. collective learning and awareness through outreach improves and promotes the science and policies understanding behind sustainable development, and gives policy-makers, researchers, practitioners, and citizens to make informed decisions on how to support more sustainability through delivering courses covering all sdgs, including topics such as health, development, climate change, agriculture, human rights, and sustainable investment (raimi et al., 2018; raimi, 2019; raimi et al., 2019; omidiji and raimi, 2019; suleiman et al., 2019; olalekan et al., 2019; olalekan et al., 2020; adedoyin et al., 2020; olalekan et al., 2020; raimi et al., 2020; morufu et al., 2021). for several years, farmers in nigerian have remained bedeviled through a cankerworm known as pesticides dependency as one and only veritable source toward increasing yield as well as become an albatross due in the direction of its effects on health. in spite of being miscomprehended as an expression of vulnerability in the face of blistering as well as dangerous times of strangulated economy, as concern around pesticides have become an issue due to the direct humans’ actions. adapting these procedures can remarkably decrease the exposure difficulties farmers faced. the foremost pesticides concerns are the long-term chronic exposure side effects for instance, the altered genetic stability of hormone balance, immune systems suppression as well as the capacity of some pesticides such as cypermethrin (raimi et al., 2020) to cause cancer and exposure to it causes toxic effects and it is carcinogenic to humans. hospitals morbidity data shows that over 70 percent of rural residents who come to the hospitals for health care treatment suffer from typhoid, malaria, as well as other food and water-borne illnesses that the local authorities may perhaps remain empowered to address, prevent and accelerate actions toward 32 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.347 fast-racking rural development, agricultural support and employment creation (raimi et al., 2017; olalekan et al., 2018; raimi et al., 2019; raimi, 2019; raimi et al., 2019; olalekan et al., 2019; gift & olalekan, 2020; olalekan et al., 2020; gift et al., 2020). in addition, the identified practices by nigerian farmers on the use of pesticides has been identified as a major obstacle toward eradicating food contamination which often leads to serious morbidity as well as loss of lives. the federal ministry of science and technology reported mid-year that more than 200,000 nigerians die each year before, during and after planting from food-borne diseases and poisoning as a result of contamination. however, the success of the millennium development goals (mdgs), nonetheless relatively distant from the ambitious goals set at the commencement of the millennium have prompted the world toward adopting a novel set of goals that build on these activities called the sustainable development goals (sdgs), this new set of goals aims amongst others put an to end to hunger as well as poverty come 2030. like the millennium development goals (mdgs), the sustainable development goals (sdgs) are designed with evidence that through collaboration on a pre-agreed mission, the world has an advantage in meeting citizens aspirations, including farmers for prosperity, peace as well as progress. while, the sustainable development goals (sdgs) remain an assemblage of 17 global goals and 169 targets set through the united nations general assembly in 2015 for the year 2030 (see figure 3 below). figure 3. source adapted from https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/development-agenda/ the sdgs are part of the united nation general assembly resolution 70/1, the 2030 agenda. the sdgs goals of no poverty, zero hunger etc. agricultural development is an important nexus to the achievement of a good number of the sdgs and is a sound and most effective strategy to combat poverty (goal 1), eradicate hunger (goal 2), guarantee good health as well as wellbeing (goal 3), promote industrial growth (goal 9), reduce inequality (goal 10) etc. the key objective of the sustainable development goals (sdgs) is to improve as well as promote the health and well-being of all farmers of all ages. apparently, as a result of some accidental coincidence of sorts, farmer’s profession whose role has conventionally remained toward producing food, has sequel toward a progression in scope over the years, in harmony toward depending on additional complex integration of the sustainable development goals (sdgs). the use of pesticides in farming practice speak to the importance the sdgs place on individuals, their health as well as general wellbeing, including responsible production and consumption. it recognises that pesticides are basically poisoning with a possibility toward wreaking untold harm as well as havoc on farmers, including posing danger to human lives and incomes of farmers as well as subject toward inconvenience and even additional pauperise farmers if the utmost affordable or cost-effective decisions are not conscientiously selected. most importantly, it is particularly relevant that in the fight against pesticides, government must progressively play the important intercessor role for farmers. very significantly, this is much in step with the sdgs which emphasise partnership as well as collective corporation towards the achievement of sdgs goals and to intervene by sustaining efforts to reduce food contamination through collective learning and education of farmers. also, there is need to embrace pro-private sector policies to improve agricultural practices of small holders’ farmers and by extension, the relationship along the supply chain, increasing their outputs and sales of wholesome foods, as well as to improve the health of rural communities through consumption of safe products. the government need to work with the private sector to support and help stimulate industry innovations for sustainable argic food systems as well as producing better and safer food despite preserving biodiversity and natural resources. also, empowered participation should be encouraged to opens up spaces for contestation as well as policies cooperation regarding pesticides usage. it is important to take the right decision as well as the right outcomes, and therefore for sustainable development. growth must be propelled by agriculture prioritisation as a significant contributor toward the development as well as the rapid adoption of novel technologies toward boosting the sector as well as toward reshaping and improving the agriculture and food systems to better feed nigerians and deliver sustainable development. there is need to be guided by our commitment to providing quality agricultural food systems as an essential tool for achieving a more peaceful, prosperous, and sustainable future. moreover, “eco-social policies” aim toward shifting behaviours or providing motivations for additional and advanced sustainable environmental 33 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.347 management or use of resource, while strengthening the adaptive capacities or resilience of communities as well as individuals, hence accomplishing social goals. 3. the way forward indeed, everyone must work together to achieve the 2030 agenda for sustainable development and sustainable development goals (sdgs). different sectors as well as actors will need to work collectively in a cohesive manner through merging resources, knowledge as well as expertise. hence, there is a need for innovative and sectorial multistakeholder collaboration, which is an important key to getting us toward where we need to be in 2030. more than ever, partnerships should continue toward supporting government led activities to achieve sustainable development. unlocking the immense knowledge as well as experience that these corporations as well as partners collaboratively possess, grips the vital toward efficiently supporting sustainable development goals (sdgs) implementation. the agenda of the 2030 will necessitate an increased teamwork among all organizations, all states as well as all individuals, so that we can magnificently deliver on the promises of achieving and fulfilling the 17 interconnected sustainable development goals (sdgs). the voyage toward achieving and fulfilling all the 17 sustainable development goals as well as accomplishing a better future for all individuals, which is together filled through opportunity as well as great challenge. it is a problem that is facing all individuals as well as all nations. nonetheless this problem could be overcome through collaboration in a real-time partnership to design critical as well as outreach programs that are targeted, which address precisely pesticide risk, safe handling as well as forestalling behavior which are critical characteristics aimed at promoting planetary and human health that we all desire. at the same time, investment in the sdgs reduces exposure and vulnerability and is a major driver of resilience. while all actors must understand, manage and ultimately reduce pesticide risks, governments must lead in taking a risk-informed perspective. first, governments are the “risk-bearer of last resort”. when a crisis occurs, private risks often become public liabilities. thus, policymakers need to mainstream risk considerations in all policies, processes and decisions. going forward, there is need to invest in a sustainable, resilient and equitable recovery of safe pesticide use. rather than trying to restore yesterday’s economy, governments must invest in measures to protect their citizens from pesticide risk, poverty (forecasts designate that the pandemic might likely push 71 million individuals back into extreme poverty by 2020, in what would remain the first global poverty rise since 1998. several of these individuals are informal economy employees, whose earnings dropped through 60% in the first calendar month of the disaster. half of the global employees of about 1.6 billion individuals supporting themselves as well as their families through uncertain as well as frequently unsafe jobs within the informal economy, as well as having been remarkably affected), hunger and existential threats, while sharing the fruits of globalization more equally. new forms of financing, including longer-term instruments spanning 40 50 years, may be needed for these investments. investment alone, however, is not enough. to address the systemic nature of global pesticide risks, there is need to reform our agricultural institutions and policy architecture, strengthen multilateralism, and create new platforms and networks for global cooperation. these views will inform discussions within the united nations, government and with other partners in 2021 and going forward. it is urged that all governments and other stakeholders to meet the expectations of the citizen they serve with unity, solidarity and coordinated multilateral action. the view underlines the need for policy actions toward ensuring effective support until the recovery is firmly underway. competing interests we declare that we have no conflict of interest that could be perceived as prejudicing the impartiality of the research reported. this research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. 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[28] raimi m. o, bilewu o. o, adio z. o, abdulrahman h (2019) women contributions to sustainable environments in nigeria. journal of scientific research in allied sciences. 5(4), 35-51. issn no. 2455-5800. doi no. 10.26838/jusres.2019.5.4.104. [29] raimi m o, suleiman r m, odipe o e, salami j t, oshatunberu m, et al (2019). women role in environmental conservation and development in nigeria. ecology & conservation science; 1(2): doi: 10.19080/ecoa.2019.01.555558. volume 1 issue 2 july 2019. https://juniperpublishers.com/ecoa/pdf/ ecoa.ms.id.555558.pdf [30] raimi morufu olalekan, tonye v. odubo, omidiji adedoyin o, oluwaseun e. odipe (2018) environmental health and climate change in nigeria. world congress on global warming. valencia, spain. december 06-07, 2018. [31] raimi, m. o, pigha, tarilayun k and ochayi, e. o (2017) water-related problems and health conditions in the oil producing communities in central senatorial district of bayelsa state. imperial journal of interdisciplinary research (ijir) vol-3, issue-6, issn: 2454-1362. [32] samson t.k., ogunlaran o.m., raimi o.m (2020); a predictive model for confirmed cases of covid-19 in nigeria. european journal of applied sciences, 36 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.347 volume 8, no 4, aug 2020;pp:1-10. doi: 10.14738/ a i v p . 8 4 . 8 7 0 5 . d o i : h t t p s : / / d o i . o rg / 1 0 . 1 4 7 3 8 / aivp.84.8705. [33] sawyerr o. h, odipe o. e, olalekan r. m, et al. (2018) assessment of cyanide and some heavy metals concentration in consumable cassava flour “lafun” across osogbo metropolis, nigeria. moj eco environ sci. 2018;3(6):369‒372. doi: 10.15406/ mojes.2018.03.00115. [34] suleiman romoke monsurat, raimi morufu olalekan and sawyerr henry olawale (2019) a deep dive into the review of national environmental standards and regulations enforcement agency (nesrea) act. international research journal of applied sciences. pissn: 2663-5577, eissn: 2663-5585. doi no. irjas.2019.123.123. www.scirange.com. https://scirange.com/abstract/irjas.2019.108.125. [35] united nations (2018). world urbanization prospects: the 2018 revision. key facts. technical report, united nations. [36] un (2011), world population prospects: the 2010 revision, new york. [37] un (2010), world urbanization prospects: the 2009 revision, un habitat, new york. [38] un (united nations) (2009), world population prospects: the 2008 revision, new york. [39] un habitat (2006), state of the world’s cities: 2006/2007, un habitat, new york. [40] un habitat (2003), the challenge of slums: global report on human settlements 2003, un habitat, new york. [41] world bank (2010), world development indicators, world bank, washington, dc, http://data.worldbank. org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators. 1 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.787 copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). *corresponding author: yogendra acharya, planning division, nepal agricultural research council, singha durbar plaza, kathmandu, p.o. box 5459, nepal; email: yogendraacharya9@gmail.com received: 2 december 2022; received in revised form: 3 january 2023; accepted: 10 january 2023; published: 12 january 2023 citation: acharya, y., upadhyaya, n., sapkota, s., 2023. socioeconomic assessment of mandarin postharvest loss: a case of gandaki province, nepal. research on world agricultural economy. 4(1), 787. http://dx.doi. org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.787 research article socioeconomic assessment of mandarin postharvest loss: a case of gandaki province, nepal yogendra acharya1* namdev upadhyaya1 sudha sapkota2 1. planning division, nepal agricultural research council, singha durbar plaza, kathmandu, p.o. box 5459, nepal 2. monitoring and evaluation division, nepal agricultural research council, singha durbar plaza, kathmandu, p.o. box 5459, nepal abstract: this study focused on the socioeconomic assessment of mandarin postharvest loss in the gandaki province of nepal. two mandarin growing districts tanahun and syangja of gandaki province were selected for study purposes. a simple random method of sampling was employed to select 45 mandarin farmers from each district making a total sample size of 90. primary data were collected with the help of a pre-tested semi-structured interview schedule along with two focus group discussions and field observation of the mandarin orchard. data were analyzed by using both descriptive and inferential statistics. this paper explored the mandarin production status, major post-harvest practices, marketing channels, and barriers to post-harvest technology adoption. the findings revealed that farmers were producing 5.4 tons of fresh mandarin each year earning around 50 thousand nepalese rupees as profit from mandarin farming. similarly, the result showed that the post-harvest loss was 8%-9% during the harvesting, grading, and packaging operation while a loss of 2%-3% was recorded during the transportation of mandarin from the production site to the wholesaler site. in total, loss ranging from 14%-18% was recorded in all chains of mandarin postharvest operations. also, it was found that more than two-thirds (76.7%) of farmers practiced mandarin marketing based on preharvest contracts. the technical know-how of farmers about post-harvest technologies was a major challenge associated with the low adoption of mandarin post-harvest technologies. the concerned government agency, i/ngos, and other organizations need to emphasize post-harvest loss issues by incorporating loss minimization activities in their program ensuring higher adoption of postharvest technologies by mandarin farmers and traders. keywords: agro-pastoralists perception; post-harvest; mandarin; technology; adoption http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.787 mailto:yogendraacharya9@gmail.com http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.787 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.787 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2447-5217 2 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 1. introduction citrus, particularly mandarin fruit (citrus reticulate blanco) is one of the most important and highly commercial fruit crops in nepal. mandarin being a sub-tropical fruit is highly suitable for undulating and marginal topography of the country. it is grown widely in mid hills of nepal covering 56 districts of nepal. mandarin plays a significant role in the national economy which contributes 0.97% share in agdp and 0.33% in gdp [1,2]. production and marketing of mandarin fruit is an important source of income not just for mandarin farmers and traders, but also provides seasonal employment for many agriculture laborers. mandarin being a non-climacteric and perishable fruit, losses of mandarin fruit during harvesting, handling and marketing are reported to vary between different percentages. in nepal the postharvest loss for citrus fruit was estimated from 15%-20% [3]. minimizing postharvest loss of mandarin fruit is a very effective way to increase fruit availability and reduce the cost of cultivation for farmers which ultimately helps increase farmers’ income. although mandarin has been grown widely as an important commercial fruit crop in mid-hilly terrain, farmers are not fully acquainted with orchard management and post-harvest practices. despite the ecological advantage, the production of mandarin fruits is still insufficient to meet the domestic demand of the country. mandarin cultivation provides a better profitable farming option to hilly farmers; however considerable attention has not been given to increasing post-harvest loss issues. although the losses of mandarin fruits differ upon many factors as like management techniques, topography, climate, and varieties, the shelf life of horticulture production is greatly influenced by adopted postharvest management practices. similarly, in the case of diverse farmers’ economic conditions and the farmers’ involvement in fruit production, there exist several issues related to production and postharvest practices. the adoption of post-harvest technologies at the farmers’ level demands awareness, knowledge and thereafter decision process. mostly men are involved in decision-making tasks and most commonly those works which require more physical strength. unlike this, emale are more likely expected to do manual and repetitive works which do not require more physical strength but encounter a lot of drudgeries [4]. the development of suitable post-harvest technologies and their wider adoption among all mandarin farmers is crucial into reducing postharvest losses. reducing post-harvest losses can bring more food without bringing additional land in production and all post-harvest horticulturist need to coordinate their effort with those involved in production to the marketing system [5,6]. although post-harvest is a worldwide issue, its challenge and impact are more prominent in developing countries like nepal. keeping this in view, a socio-economic assessment of mandarin post-harvest loss has been carried out to understand farmers’ knowledge and practice on post-harvest activities and associated losses in different stages of mandarin post-harvest operations. 2. methodology 2.1 study area the research was conducted in two districts of gandaki province. out of eleven, nine districts of gandaki province are somehow popular for mandarin production except for manang and mustang. both syangja and tanahun districts were purposively selected for the study purpose as both districts rank first and second in terms of production area [1]. in total four locations were identified from two districts. mygde and shuklagandaki rural municipalities of tanahun and putalibazar and arjunchaupari municipalities of syangja were selected for study purposes. 2.2 primary information primary data were collected by using pretested interview schedule administered to the 90 mandarin-growing farmers. two focus group discussions were organized to get surplus and validate the information. mandarin orchard, collection centers were visited in the study site in two districts of gandaki province. apart from farmers, akc and farmers’ super zone program under pmam project was consulted for gathering all mandarin related information. 2.3 secondary information and data analysis mandarin-related reports, scientific papers and books were reviewed to get the required secondary information on mandarin post-harvest-related technology. data entry and analysis were done by using statistical package for social science (spss) and microsoft excel software package. socio-demographic characters, mandarin production, and post-harvest loss were analyzed by using descriptive tools such as frequencies, percentages and mean as per need. similarly, the barriers to the adoption of postharvest loss minimization technologies were ranked by using a five-point scale (figure 1). the index related to the barrier factor was calculated by using the weightage average mean. the index of intensity was computed by using the following formula and ranking scale. iprob = ∑sifi/n, where, iprob = index value for intensity 3 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 si = scale value for the ith intensity fi = frequency of the ith intensity n = total number of respondent iprob= index ((0 < i < 1) figure 1. five-point ranking scale. 3. results and discussion 3.1 study on knowledge, perception and adoption of postharvest technology along the supply chain 3.1.1 descriptive statistics of variable the descriptive statistics of variables include the demographic and socio-economic variables of surveyed households. table 1 represents the mean, standard deviation and minimum maximum value of the given variables. mainly age, gender, education, farming experience, migration and mandarin cultivation status were some major variables given in the table. mainly the average age of the respondent was 52 years with an age range from 22 to 79 years. in the case of gender, the majority of them were male (80%). the literacy level of the surveyed households was classified as the number of schooling years. the result indicated that the average education level was 7 years of schooling. also, outmigration for an employment opportunity is an important variable that indicates the status of household labor supply and household income status. the result showed that 43% of households had at least one member engaged in an overseas job. similarly farming experience of respondent households can be considered an important variable as it is helpful in determining the choice behavior of farmers in adopting production and postharvest technologies. in this study, it was found that farmers have been cultivating mandarin for 18 years on average. farmers have been growing mandarin traditionally since long ago, however production areas may vary as per land area availability and interest of farmers. likewise, on average, the number of parcels used for mandarin production was found 2.26 in the study area. the detail of the value is given in table 1. 3.1.2 mandarin farming information regarding total mandarin plants, number of fruiting plants, sold quantity and annual income from mandarin was collected during the household survey. the result showed that farmers have been cultivating mandarin plants from 30 to 2500 in number. the average holding of the mandarin plant by farmers was 294 plants per household while the value decreases to 178 plants if considering only fruiting mandarin plants per household (table 2). most of the farmers have been cultivating mandarin as a major farming business and one of the important sources of household income. in most cases, farmer earned their income by selling fresh fruit to traders and pre-harvest contractors. the finding indicated that on average farmers sold 5.3 tons of mandarin per year. also, results showed that mandarin has contributed 50 thousand per year to farmers’ annual profit by selling fresh mandarin. 3.1.3 social class (caste)-wise number of mandarin plants there exists a social class category in most societies. in this study, three major classes were identified, brahmin/chettri, janajati and dalit. among them majority of respondents were brahmin/chettri (62%), followed by janajati (22%) and dalit (16%) (table 3). the brahmins/ chettri was the dominating caste in the surveyed area as shown below in the table. the results showed that among table 1. demographic variables. variables value mean std. deviation minimum maximum age of respondent year in number 51.58 13.680 22 79 education years in number 6.96 4.762 0 17 outmigration abroad, yes = 1, otherwise = 0 0.43 0.498 0 1 experience in mandarin farming years in number 18.30 10.883 1 45 total cultivated land land area in ropani* 12.51 12.885 0 92 land allocated for mandarin land area in ropani 8.40 9.97 1 80 no. of parcel for mandarin number of parcel 2.26 1.32 1 7 * ropani = 508.74 m2 source: field survey (2020). 4 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 three groups, brahmins have a higher average holding of mandarin plants in their orchards than others. 3.1.4 training received by mandarin farmers figure 2 showed that farmers received a different kind of mandarin training. among them, most farmers had received mandarin production-related training (37.8%) followed by orchard management training (32.2%). the percentage of farmers getting postharvest training was quite less as compared to production and orchard management training. only 10% of farmers were trained in postharvest knowledge and skills. likewise training onthe marketingrelated issue was negligible, and only 3.3% of farmers were lucky to receive such training. these low percentages indicated that concerned institutions and programs had given less priority to postharvest and market-related training. 3.2 mandarin postharvest operation, farmer’s knowledge and practice 3.2.1 harvesting criteria, time and collection harvesting criteria are considered the beginning step of the postharvest operation. the different types of harvesting criteria may affect the postharvest quality of mandarin table 2. mandarin plant and annual income. variables value mean std. deviation minimum maximum total mandarin plants (fruiting and non-fruiting) number of plant 293.53 357.92 30 2500 fruiting mandarin plants number of fruiting plants 177.18 275.40 0 2000 last season mandarin production production in kg 5481.13 12175 0 75000 last season sold mandarin sold mandarin in kg 5380.19 12195.67 0 75000 total annual profit from mandarin annual profit in npr 49475 144818.93 0 950000 source: field survey (2020). table 3. caste-wise mandarin plants. caste n mean std. deviation std. error minimum maximum brahmin/chettri 56 317.16 420.799 56.232 30 2500 janajati 20 277.10 239.271 53.503 30 750 dalit 14 222.50 189.643 50.684 50 600 total 90 293.53 357.921 37.728 30 2500 source: field survey (2020). 37.80% 32.20% 10% 3.30% 62.20% 67.80% 90% 96.70% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% 120.00% mandarin production training orchard management training postharvest related training marketing related training total yes total notraining received by farmers figure 2. training received by mandarin farmers. 5 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 to some extent. the result showed that most farmers follow mandarin harvesting based on the color of the fruit (54%) followed by the order of traders (28%). also some farmers decide to harvest mandarin as per market price. the timing of mandarin harvesting could affect the shelf life of mandarin after harvest. in most cases, farmers do harvest mandarin fruit in the late morning time (53.3%), however still many farmers (45.6%) harvest fruits in the midday time. higher temperatures during midday time and subsequent handling practices could affect the postharvest quality of mandarin. similarly, the result showed that after harvest, the majority of farmers used a plastic crate to collect the harvested fruits followed by a local bamboo bucket (38%) (figure 3). however, still some farmers were using jute/plastic sacks to collect the mandarin. 0 44.50% 37.80% 16.70% 1.10% plastic crate bamboo bucket/doko jute/plastic sacks other figure 3. collection of mandarin fruits after harvest. 3.2.2 sorting of mandarin after mandarin harvest mandarin sorting after harvesting helps to avoid mixing fresh and healthy fruits with diseased and damaged fruits. generally commercial farmers were more aware of sorting operations than normal farmers. the result depicted that almost 89% of farmers performed sorting operations separating 2.2% of mandarin as damaged and diseased ones. 3.2.3 management of sorted mandarin farmers performing sorting operations were asked to know what they do with sorted fruits. the findings showed that more than one-third of farmers (35.6%) did nothing with sorted fruits and left those decayed fruits in the orchard. in general, it is not suggested to leave those affected fruits in the orchard as it helps to spread disease infection and create a favorable environment for the pest population (figure 4). similarly, the result indicated that 34.4% of farmers were utilizing those sorted mandarin by making local wine. among wine-making households, it became a source of small income for female member by selling homemade wine to local hotels and neighbors. 3.2.4 mandarin grading and criteria for grading mandarin grading is one of the important and popular postharvest operations among commercial mandarin growers. in this case selling purpose-graded mandarin fetches higher price than non-graded mandarin. among surveyed farmers, almost all farmers (96%) had been practicing grading operations. the common method of mandarin grading at a local level is a traditional method. the first choice of a farmer to grade their mandarin is based on the size and shape of the fruits. farmers grade their fruits by deciding on the greater size, middle size and smallest size (locally called jethi, maili and kanchi). besides, some farmers also perform grading operations based on the color of fruits (24.4%) followed by damage made by inspecting pests (16.3%) and physical injury (12.8%). 3.2.5 farmers’ knowledge on mandarin processing operation due to its perishable nature, the processing of horticultural crops is considered one of the key operations addressing postharvest loss issues. further it helps to add monetary value to the product too. although processing operation in mandarin is quite popular, farmers in the 35.60% 20% 10% 34.40% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% left in orchard throw in open pit burry in pit local wine making and other management of sorted mandarin figure 4. management of sorted mandarin by farmers. 6 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 studied area were found to be less aware. only 45% of farmers knew it while 43% of farmers were unaware of it (figure 5). the reason behind less awareness among farmers might be due to no surplus production in the main season. all the products get marketed easily, local and pre-harvest contractors play the lead role in marketing activity. 44.40% 12.20% 43.30% yes little bit no figure 5. farmers’ knowledge on mandarin processing operation. 3.2.6 packaging materials for mandarin plastic crate use was highly popular among mandarin farmers. almost 98% of farmers had adopted plastic crates as a means for mandarin packaging. the types of packaging materials use greatly determine the extent of damage during subsequent handling, storage and transportation. among different materials, some farmers (5.6%) were using a bamboo bucket (doko) followed by paper cartoons (1.1%) (figure 6). in the past decade, farmers used to face significant loss of mandarin annually due to not adopting proper packaging materials, but the trend of using plastic create has increased rapidly these days. however, still some farmers are forced to use a local bamboo bucket and even jute sacks due to the unavailability of plastic create. in some cases, carrying mandarin in the plastic crate was found difficult due to difficult hilly terrain. 5.60% 97.80% 1.10% 2.20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% bamboo doko plastic crate paper carton other packaging materials figure 6. packaging materials use for mandarin. although plastic crates are simple and common packaging materials, their availability at local a level is questionable. in general, the cost for one piece of the crate goes from 400 to 700 nepali rupees which can hold up to 20-22 kg of mandarin. however the durability of crate was reported to be less satisfactory for farmers. also for a local contractor, the life span of one crate is no more than one year and for wholesalers at the national level; one crate can be used hardly for six months only. 3.3 mandarin transportation depending upon packaging materials means of transportation, road condition and temperature a large volume of loss occurs during mandarin transportation. figure 6 revealed that pick-up was the most used means of transportation for mandarin. apart from a pickup, 28% farmers were using mini trucks and 12% of farmers were transporting mandarin manually (figure 7). the result suggested that farmers’ preference was higher for pick up and still some farmers were not connected with vehicle transportation. 56.70% 27.80% 12.20% 1.10% 2.20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% pick up mini truck manual three wheeler/auto others transportation means figure 7. transportation means for mandarin. 3.4 mandarin marketing farmers act as the primary producer of mandarin. in general, farmers were involved as primary sellers whereas contractors, traders were primary buyers. mainly farmers, and preharvest contractors/traders were the main actors involved in the marketing of mandarin, however, the role of traders was always dominating in purchasing mandarin from producers and supplying it to other districts [7]. the result showed that more than two third of farmers (76.7%) preferred mandarin marketing by means of contractors. those pre-harvest contractors usually visit the farmers’ field after a few months of fruiting and negotiate the total value of the whole orchard with the producers. different criteria such as the number of fruit trees, number of fruits per tree, shape, etc were used by both contractors and producers to finalize the monetary value of the orchard. after contract fixation, farmers were free to look after their mandarin; all tasks like harvesting, grading, packaging 7 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 and transporting of fruits were done pre-harvest harvest contractors. although the contract basis of marketing was popular among farmers the profit margin of farmers had been compromised greatly. farmers preferred pre-harvest contracts because of the low risk associated with harvesting and transportation. 3.5 post-harvest loss at different stage of postharvest operation since mandarin is a perishable and non-climacteric fruit, it shows great losses after harvesting. worldwide postharvest loss of fruits and vegetables are high, but the rate is even higher for developing nation. the questions on perceived postharvest loss at different steps of postharvest operation were asked to mandarin farmers to assess the loss calculation. the study reported that higher loss was observed at the harvesting stage (3.14%) followed by transportation (2.95%) and the lowest loss was found in the packaging operation (1.2%). in total, mandarin postharvest loss from harvesting to transportation stage was 11.41% in the first stage of marketing (figure 8). 3.6 barrier to postharvest technology adoption nepal faces the great postharvest loss of mandarin annually due to not adopting proper handling practices during different stages of postharvest operations. minimizing these losses is only possible when farmers start adopting postharvest loss-minimizing technologies. as farming is subsistence in nature, the problems of mandarin farmers are mostly associated with a lack of technical knowledge related to production and marketing [8,9]. however, at the field level, farmers hesitate to adopt available postharvest technology due to technical and other reasons. the study results showed that a lack of knowledge of postharvest technology was the most important barrier to adopting available postharvest technologies (table 4). further, farmers believed that adopting those technologies was more expensive for them and also lack of reliable extension service had made farmers more reluctant to technology adoption. 3.7 marketing channel and postharvest loss mandarin reaches consumers’ hands through the in3.14% 2.12% 2.00% 1.20% 2.95% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% harvesting storage grading packaging transportation post harvest loass at different stages of postharvest operation figure 8. post-harvest loss at different stages of postharvest operation. table 4. barrier to the adoption of postharvest loss minimization technology. barrier score/frequency index value rank 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 lack of reliable extension service 16 47 10 1 16 0.70 iii lack of knowledge about ph technologies 38 49 1 0 2 0.87 i credit constraint 10 36 29 2 13 0.33 v unwillingness to adopt technologies 6 32 31 3 18 0.61 iv high cost of technology adoption 13 50 22 1 4 0.75 ii source: field survey (2020). 8 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 volvement of different actors like producers, preharvest contractors, wholesalers and retailers. the route through which mandarin from orchard to consumers is marketed is commonly called a marketing channel. in the study site, the majority of mandarin farmers preferred contractbased marketing to preharvest contractors or local traders. a postharvest loss of 8%-9% was recorded for harvesting, grading and packaging operation. a loss of 2%-3% was noted during the transportation of mandarin from the production site to the wholesaler site. the study showed that the total postharvest loss of mandarin within the chain goes up from 14% to 18% (figure 9). the study done by gangwar [10] in india also found that aggregate post-harvest losses of kinnow mandarin from orchard to consumer in two different market ranges from 14.87% in delhi market to 21.91 in banglore market. figure 9. marketing channel and postharvest loss. 3.8 economic gain the observed postharvest loss of mandarin was 14% to 18% within the chain from production to consumer site. as per production data, the country had produced 0.17 million mt of mandarin with productivity of 10.30 mt/ ha [11]. the the loss of mandarin in different stages of postharvest operations indicates not only the loss of fresh produce but also loss of money in importing mandarin from a foreign country. the two ways loss caused by a higher rate of postharvest loss can be minimized is by increasing the adoption of postharvest loss minimization technology at the farmer’s level. in general, it was estimated that reducing postharvest loss by at least 7% would be a direct gain of 620 million annually. if it was the case, it would also check nepalese currency to go out of the country for importing mandarin. 4. conclusions mandarin contributes as a high-value fruit crop in the hilly area of nepal from east to west helping cash earning for marginalized and poor farmers. the study indicated post-harvest loss ranges from 13%-18% in different stages of post-harvest operation. although various that postharvest technologies have been recommended, farmers face a great loss of mandarin annually due to not adopting proper post-harvest technologies during different stages of post-harvest operation. most farmers had adopted plastic crates as one of the viable means of post-harvest technologies. uses of the plastic crate have increased rapidly these days playing an important role in minimizing post-harvest loss of mandarin to some extent. promoting postharvest technologies within farmers’ and traders’ practices could be the best solution to reduce the direct loss of fresh mandarin fruits which ultimately minimizes the import quantity of mandarin from a foreign country. similarly, there exist issues of higher price spread in the mandarin value chain. poor marketing systems and weak institutional mechanisms could be major reasons behind it. reliable extension service should be made easily available and extensional personnel should be regularly trained with recent postharvest management technologies. to make an impact, concerned programs and organization need to incorporate postharvest management activities in their programs ensuring that mandarin farmers and traders can be better involved in reducing postharvest loss. author contributions the corresponding author took the lead in writing the manuscript while all other co-authors provided critical feedback and helped in analysis, interpretation, and manuscript preparation. acknowledgments we acknowledge the vcdp/koica project for funding this research. similarly, our sincere appreciation goes to nepal agricultural research council and to all respondent farmers and traders for their valuable time and suggestions. data availability all data are available in the main text or in the supporting materials, whereas raw data can be obtained from the corresponding author upon request. 9 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 conflict of interest the authors disclosed no any conflict of interest. references [1] moald, 2020. statistical information nepalese agriculture, kathmandu: government of nepal. [2] rokaya, p., baral, d., gautam, d., et al., 2016. effect of postharvest treatments on quality and shelf life of mandarin (citrus reticulata blanco). american journal of plant sciences. 7, 1098-1105. doi: https://doi.org/10.4236/ajps.2016.77105 [3] bhattarai, d.r., 2018. postharvest horticulture in nepal. horticulture international journal. 2(6), 458-460. doi: https://doi.org/10.15406/hij.2018.02.00096 [4] tripathi, p c , shukla, a.k, babu, n., et al., 2016. role of women in horticulture and women friendly technologies. directorate of research on women in agriculture: bhubaneswar, india. pp. 9-11. [5] gautam, d.m., bhattarai, d.r., 2012. postharvest horticulture. bhawani printers: chabahil kathmandu, nepal. [6] bhattarai, r.r., rijal, r.k., mishra, p., 2013. post-harvest losses in mandarin orange: a case study of dhankuta district, nepalafrican journal of agricultural research. 8(9), 763-767. [7] shrestha, d., 2015. production cost and market analysis of mandarin in dhading district of nepal. the journal of agriculture and environment. 16, 112–119. [8] pokhrel, c.n., 2011. analysis of market chain of mandarin in nepal: a case of lamjung district nepal [master’s thesis]. the netherlands: van hall larenstein university of applied sciences wageningen. [9] bastakoti, r.c., 2002. production and marketing efficiency of mandarin orange in western hills of nepal [master’s thesis]. nepal: institute of agriculture and animal science. [10] gangwar, l.s., singh, d., singh, d.b., 2007. estimation of post-harvest losses in kinnow mandarin in punjab using a modified formula. agricultural economics research review. 20(347-2016-16644), 315331. [11] ncrp, 2020. annual progress report. national citrus research program. paripatle,dhankuta: nepal agricultural research council (narc). http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ajps.2016.77105 11 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.382 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae assessment of use of improved production technologies among goat farmers in abia state nigeria onu, s. e.*　obinna, l. o.　ufomba v. u department of agricultural extension and rural development, michael okpara university of agriculture, umudike article info abstract article history received: 22 april 2021 accepted: 28 may 2021 published online: 31 may 2021 the study provided an empirical evidence on the use of improved goat production technologies among rural farmers in abia state, nigeria. the specific objectives of the study were to describe the socioeconomic characteristics of the respondent, ascertain the extent of use of improved goat production technologies, determine factors influencing use of improved goat production technologies and identify the constraint to access and use of improved goat production technologies in the study area. a multi-stage random sampling technique was adopted in selecting the sample size 120 respondents. data for the study were collected through the use of questionnaire. the data collected for the study were analysed with both descriptive and inferential statistics. the result of the socioeconomic characteristics revealed the mean age of the respondents was 43 years, majority 69.16% of the respondents were married, about 45% had secondary education, a mean household size of 6 persons, majority 66.67% were farmers, mean years of arming experience at 5.7 years, mean income of #102,000, mean farm size of 11 goats and majority (78.33%) of respondents were nonmembers of cooperative societies. the result on extent of use of improved goat production technologies, revealed that the respondents highly used most of improved goat production technologies as affirmed with the grand mean of x= 3.20. on constraint to use of improved goat production technologies, all the respondents 100% agreed that lack of access to credit was a constraint to use, 100% agrees on lack of credibility from source of technological information, 99.2% agreed that they were afraid of taking risk, 93.3% agreed on difficulty in technology application among others. the ols regression estimates of the influence of socioeconomic characteristics the respondents on the use of improved goat production technologies in the study area, revealed that age at 10%, education at 1%, household size at 1%, farming experience at 1%, farm size at 1%, income at 1% and access to credit at 5% were the determinants of use of improved goat production technologies in the study area and the null hypotheses rejected. in conclusion, greater use of available improved technologies will promote productivity, and therefore there is need for proper sensitization and awareness by relevant agencies. the study recommended that credit should be made available to farmers by relevant governmental and nongovernmental agencies to increase the level of use of available improved technologies. keywords: use improved goat production technologies farmers 　1. introduction goats are among the main meat-producing animals in nigeria, whose meat is one of the choicest and has high demand across the country. besides meat, goats provide other products like milk, skin, fiber and manure. nigeria, with over 3.9 million goats is one of the largest goat producing countries in africa and playing a significant role *corresponding author: onu, s. e.; samsononu@gmail.com 12 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 in livelihood and nutritional security as well as providing supplementary income to many marginal and resource poor farmers, (food and agricultural organization; fao,: 2015). however, the productivity of goats under the traditional production system is very low owing to their maintenance under extensive system on natural vegetation and shrinking common grazing lands and tree lopping. moreover, adoption of improved technologies and management practices in the farmers’ flock is very low (singh and kumar, 2007). adoption behaviour of goat farmers depends on knowledge, economic motivation, family education status, extension agency contact, social participation and income (kumar et al., 2014). the adoption is low in important scientific practices due to lack of exposure, henceforth extension agencies have to arrange training and demonstration programs of improved practices to goat keepers (singh, 2017). technology information usage on the other hand refers to the physical and mental acts involved in incorporating the improved technologies found, into the farmers existing technology base. technology use is an indicator of technology needs, because it leads an individual use the technology in order to meet his needs. technology use is concerned with what happens with a technology once it has been obtained, and how it is applied to accomplishing a specific task. it is the final step in the technology seeking process. goat rearing using improved management practices undertaken for maximization of returns from the enterprise was considered as ‘commercial goat farming’ in the present context. the entry of large farmers, who have better access to technical knowledge, resources and market, into this activity would help in realizing the potential of goat enterprise (kumar, 2007). the trend of commercialization has especially been prominent in the northern states of nigeria, where demand for marketing is relatively better. goat production can be singled out to be an ideal option for the south eastern part of nigeria, given the abundance of suitable rangelands and the accommodating climatic conditions in the area. in order to make the goat rearing a profitable enterprise, technologies have been developed by the research institutions both at national and international level. such improved practices developed have not been adopted by the farmers so far. therefore, proper adoption of these improved practices by the goat farmers will be the only means to hasten further development in this sector. improved technologies are various technical knowhow for the promotion and development of agriculture. however in developing countries some of these technologies have been rejected by rural farmers, giving rise to the need to examine technologies used by rural farmers in a particular locality so as to identify and meet their needs. keeping in view the above facts, the present research was designed to study the utilization level of improved goat farming technologies by goat farmers. statement of problem available statistics show that the supply of goat meat fell short of it's demand. ijere (2012), asserts that while the average growth rate of the nigerian population is between 2.5 3.0%per annum, domestic food production lags behind at a growth rate less than 2% per annum, thereby creating food supply gap. the decreased output of agricultural produce over the years may not only be connected to deviations of farmers from improved recommended production technologies but also with lack of use of the existing improved production technologies leading to inefficiencies ( ijere, 2012). despite the multiple roles goats play in the livelihood of rural farmers and the economic growth of the country, they are still neglected by farmers and sources of credit. for efficient production in the goat production enterprise, a lot of improved technologies have be developed and transferred to the field for use. there is is little or no information on how farmers adopt and use these technologies, hence this study was conducted to investigate the use of improved goat production technologies among farmers in abia state. specific objectives of the study (1) describe the socioeconomic characteristics of the farmers in the area (2) ascertain the extent of use of improved goat production technologies (3) determine factors influencing use of improved goat production technologies (4) ascertain the constraints to use of existing improved technologies. hypothesis h01: there is no significant difference between farmers socioeconomic characteristics and the extent of use of improved goat production technologies. 2. methodology the study was conducted in abia state. abia state is located in the south-east agro-ecological zone of nigeria. according to national population commission, 2007 census report, abia state has a population of 2,833,999 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.382 13 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 people, made up of 1,454,195 males and 1,599,806 females, and the population is predominately rural (62.25%) with only 37.75 % urban population. abia state lies within longitude 70 23e and 80 2e and latitude 40 47n and 60 12n. the population of the study comprised of all the goat farmers in abia state, nigeria. a multi-stage random sampling technique was adopted in selecting the sample size 120 respondents. in the first stage, 2 agricultural blocks each were randomly selected from the 3 agricultural zones in abia state making a total 6 agricultural blocks. in the second stage, 2 circles each were randomly selected from the 6 agricultural blocks making a total of 12 circles. in the third stage, 2 cells each were randomly selected from circles already selected making a total 24 cells. in the fourth stage five (5) goat farmers were randomly selected from each of the cells which gave a total of 120 respondents that were used for the study. the study made use of primary data. data for the study were collected through the use of questionnaire. data were collected on all the specific objectives of the study. the data collected for the study were analysed with both descriptive and inferential statistics. all the specific objectives were analysed using descriptive statistic while the hypothesis was tested using ordinary least square regression model. the formula to compute the mean count to be used in this study is specified below. the mean ( ) is computed by multiplying the frequency (f) of the responses under each category by assigned value and dividing the sum (∑) of the product by (n) number of respondents to the particular indicator as shown: x = ∑ n fx (3.1) where, ∑ = summation f = frequency x = assigned scores to response category n = number of respondents x = arithmetic mean h01: there is no significant relationship between farmer’s socio-economic characteristics and the level of use of improved goat production technologies in the study area was tested using ordinary least square regression model. multiple regression helps to learn more about the relationship between one dependent variable (y) and two or more independent variables (x). it is used when we want to predict the value of a variable based on the value of two or more variables. it calculates a coefficient for each independent variable, as well as its statistical significance, to estimate the effect of each predictor on the dependent variable, with other predictors held constant. the ols/multiple regression expressed implicitly as follows. y = f (x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7,x8x9x10x11x12, x13, ei) …………………………….. (3.2) the four functional forms of ols in explicit form is specified as; linear function y = ß + ß1+x1+ ß2x2+ ……..…………………….ßnxn+ ei exponential function log y = ß + ß1+x1+ ß2x2+..……………………..ßnxn + ei semi-log function y = ß0+ ß1lnx1 + ß2lnx2….............................… ßnlnxn + ei cobb douglas function log y = ß0+ ß1lnx1 + ß2lnx2 ………………… ßnlnxn + ei where, y = use of improved got production technologies (mean score) x1 = age (years) x2 = education level (number of years spent in school) x3 = marital status (1 = married, 0 = single) x4 = flock size (number of goats) x5 = farmers experience (years) x6 = household size (number of persons) x7 = occupation ( farming = 1, trading = 2, civil service = 3, artisan= 4) x8 = farm income (n) x9 = access to credit (yes=1 no = 2) x10= membership of cooperative (yes = 1, no = 0) e = error term 3. results and discussion 3.1 socioeconomic characteristics of the respondents table 1. distribution of respondents based on their socioeconomic characteristics parameters percentages parameters age(years) farming experience (years) 20-30 12.3 1-5 50.00 31-40 15.8 6-10 20.0 41-50 37.5 11-15 20.83 51-60 22.5 16-20 9.16 61-70 4.16 mean 15.7 years mean 42.8 years farm income (n) marital status 10,000-50,000 10.83 single 8.33 51,000 – 100,000 40.83 married 69.16 101,000 – 150,000 41.67 widow 16.66 151,000 – 200,000 6.67 divorced 5.38 mean 102,012.22 level of education farm size (number of goats) doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.382 14 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 parameters percentages parameters age(years) farming experience (years) no formal education 16.67 01 – 05 25 primary 29.17 06 – 10 48.3 secondary 45.0 11 – 15 25 tertiary 9.16 16 – 20 1.7 household size (numbers) mean 10.6 goats 2-5 45.0 access to credit 6-10 50.0 no 80.83 11-15 0.25 yes 19.17 16-20 0.25 mean 6.4 persons primary occupation farming 61.67 trading 16.67 civil service 16.66 artisan 5.00 source: field survey, 2019 table 1 shows the distribution of respondents according to their age in the study area. the table revealed that about 37.5% of the farmers were between the age range of 41-50 years, 22.5%were between 51-60 years 15.8% were between 31-40 years 12.3% were between 20-30 years and 4.16% were between 61-70 years. with the mean age of the farmers at 42.8 years, it implies that the respondents were still young, active and productive. the result agrees with the findings of tiamiyu et al, (2009), that young farmers exhibit risk aversion and have higher tendency to adopt technologies that have long lag between investment and yield. the result showed that majority (69.16%) were married, 16.66% were widowed, 8.33% were single and 5.38% were divorced. the result indicates that married people are more involved in goat farming in the study area, this is in a bid to provide food and diversify sources of income which helps them to meet basic financial obligations like payment of school fees, rents, medical bills, purchase of seeds, fertilizers etc. the result revealed that most of the respondents were educated at different levels. a fairly large proportion 45% were educated at secondary school level, 29.17% had primary education, 16.67% had no formal education, and 9.16% had tertiary education. the high level of literacy among the respondents is expected to have a positive influence on their level of access and use of improved goat production technologies. the result agrees with the findings of abdelmagid and hassan;(2012); that educated farmers are more receptive to advice from extension officers, deal more with technical recommendations that require litracy, are rational in their choice of technologies rather than developing a negative attitude towards new technologies and that education have a positive and significant influence on adoption. the result revealed that a large proportion (50%) of the respondents had 6-10 persons in their household 45% had 2-5 persons in their household 2.5% had 11-15persons in their household and another 2.5% had 16-20 persons in their household. the mean household size is 6.4 persons, which implies that there is enough persons in most household to provide family labour in the goat production enterprise. from a prior expectation, availability of family labour reduces labour cost, increase productivity and net profit. the result indicates that majority 61.67% of respondents are famers, 16.67% are traders, 16.66% are civil servants while 5% are artisans. goat production are undertaken by farmers majorly as they see it as an investment and insurance that provide income to meet seasonal purchases of seeds, fertilizers and other inputs in times or seasons of crop failure and fall in prices of crops (mahama 2012). also a major characteristics of livestock production system is its integration into crop production system by farmers, where the droppings serve as manure and help to replenish soil fertility while crop residues are been used in feeding the goats (dube, 2015). the result shows that a large proportion 50% of the respondents had 1-5 years of experience, 20.83% had 11-15 years, experience, 20% had 6-10 years, experience, while 9.17% had 16-20 years, experience. the result revealed that the farmers had 5.7 mean years of experience. the implication is that a large proportion of farmers are new in goat farming, are zealous and are willing to access and use improved goat production technologies. this result agrees with the findings of chilot et al; (2009); that farming experience does not matter or is inversely related to adoption of improved technologies. the result revealed that a fair proportion 41.67% were within the monthly income of ₦101,000 ₦150,000, 40.83% were within the income range of ₦51,000 ₦100,000, 10.83% were within the income range of ₦10,000 ₦50,000 while 6.67% were within the income range of ₦151,000 ₦200,000. no respondent had above ₦201,000 income. the study revealed that the respondents had a mean income of ₦ 102,012.22, and the implication is that the respondent had a relatively moderate level of income. the result showed that a fairly large proportion 48.3% had 6-10 goats, 25% had 1-5 goats another 25% had 1115 goats and 1.7% had 16-20 goats. the mean farm size is 11 goats. the result implies that farmers in the study area were mainly smallholder farmers. the finding is plausible because farm size is a determinant of technology doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.382 15 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 adoption. the result agrees with the of (djana, 2011), and (fao, 2013), that most farmers are peasants and operate at subsistence level. the result indicates that majority 78.33% 0f respondents were non -members of cooperative societies, while 21.67% were members of cooperative societies. being a member of cooperative society affords farmers the opportunity of sharing technological information, thereby creating awareness, enhancing understanding of existing technologies, akinola as cited by simon; (2012); creates access to available technologies which in turn leads efficiency and higher productivity. the result revealed that majority 80.83% of respondents had no access to credit while19.17% had access to credit. it is expected that access to credit will help farmers to increase their farm size, hire labour, purchase needed inputs, equipment and adopt necessary technologies abdoulaye et al; (2014) inadequate capital and poor access to credit from credit institutions are major reasons why farmers still operate at subsistence level (adunni sanni; 2008). 3.2 extent of use of improved goat production technologies the result revealed a grand mean of 3.20 implying a high level of use of the improved goat production technologies. the result revealed that the respondents used the slated floor system (x = 3.65), vaccination (x =3.34), goats raised on plateforms (x = 3.36), flushing of does (x =3.36), fostering of kids (x =3.33), formulation of concentrates (x =3.29), colostrum feeding (x =3.29), feeding goats with concentrate (x =3.28), farm fumigation and disinfection (x =3.28), changing of bucks (x =3.27), crosss breeding (x =3.08), odour transfer (x =3.00), dipping (x =2.93), deworming (x =2,92), giving mineral supplement (x =2.92). the result implied that respondents in the study area made use of the improved goats production technologies leading to higher productivity and generation of income. this result disagrees with the finding of mahama (2012), that farmers are not willing to adopt new or improved technologies due to their small size of holding and financial challenges associated with new technologies. table 2. mean rating of respondents based on the extent of use of improved goat production technologies extent of use of improved goat production technologies very often often rarely never ∑ƒx slated floor system 78(312) 42(126) 0(0) 0(0) 438 3.65 goat raised on platforms 65(260) 35(105) 18(36) 2(2) 403 3.36 formulation of concentrates 35(140) 85(255) 0(0) 0(0) 395 3.29 feeding goats with concentrates 47(188) 60(180) 13(26) 0(0) 394 3.28 giving mineral supplement 30(120) 60(180) 20(40) 10(10) 350 2.92 identification of does on heat 25(100) 73(219) 11(22) 11(11) 352 2.93 cross breeding 27(108) 46(138) 38(76) 9(9) 555 3.08 vaccination 65(260) 41(123) 14(28) 0(0) 411 3.43 flushing of does 65(260) 35(105) 18(36) 2(2) 403 3.36 colostrum feeding 35(140) 85(255) 0(0) 0(0) 395 3.29 farm fumigation or disinfection 47(188) 60(180) 13(26) 0(0) 394 3.28 deworming 30(120) 60(180) 20(40) 10(10) 350 2.92 dipping 25(100) 73(219) 11(22) 11(11) 352 2.93 are you aware that bucks (male goats) are to be changed at recommended intervals 60(240) 40(120) 12(24) 8(8) 392 3.27 fostering of kids 40(160) 80(240) 0(0) 0(0) 400 3.33 odour transfer 40(160) 60(180) 20(40) 0(0) 360 3.00 total mean 51.27 grand mean 3.20 source: field survey, 2019 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.382 16 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 3.3 factors influencing use of improved goat production technologies table 3. ols regression estimates of the socio-economic determinants of use of improved goat production technologies in the study area variables linear exponential semi-log + double log (constant) -2338.142 (-0.032) 8.980 (9.566)*** 103387.027 (4.714)*** 11.173 (4.507)*** age -194.886 (-0.255) 0.007 (0.681) -37351.323 (-0.972) -.773 (-1.779)* marital status -26405.1 (-3.097)*** -0.303 (-2.794)** -28338.511 (1.236) -0.417 (1.361) years of education 3244.229 (1.805)* 0.064 (2.501)** -34888.386 (1.151) 1.149 (3.355)*** household size -302.356 (-0.122) 0.005 (0.172) 1376.132 (0.106) .068 (3.461)*** farming experience 1950.902 (1.983)** 0.010 (0.832) 14972.501 (4.160)*** .089 (3.767)*** farm size 0.054 (0.247) 1.766e-6 (0.633) 8394.982 (0.767) .048 (3.390)*** monthly income 0.422 (2.071) 1.823e-6 (0.705) 474.305 (2.037)** .113 (5.768)*** access to credit -0.057 (-0.637) 1.967e-6 (1.740)* 4482.591 (4.112)*** .288 (2.60)** cooperative membership 39594.605 (0.651) 0.659 (0.473) 29725.679 (1.363) .637 (0.588) r-square 0.685 0.655 0.616 0.765 r adjusted 0.618 0.609 0.597 0.733 f – ratio 14.710*** 11.711*** 12.27*** 16.144*** field survey, 2019 key: * significance at 10%, ** significance at 5%, *** significance at 1% ***, + = lead equation and the values in bracket are the t-value the result in table 3 showed the ordinary least square regression estimates of the socio-economic determinants of extent of use of improved goat production technologies in the study area. four functional forms of multiple regressions were analyzed and double-log functional form was selected based on magnitude of the r2 value, number of significant variables and fratio. the r2 (coefficient of multiple determination) value was 0.765 which implied that 76.5% of the total observed variations in the dependent variable (y) were accounted for while 23.5% of the variation was due to error. f–statistics was significant at1% indicating the fitness of the model used. the coefficient of age was statistically significant at 10% and negatively related extent of use of improved goat production technologies in the study area. this implies that as the age of farmers’ increase, their extent of use of improved goat production technologies decreases. this inverse relationship implies that the age of the farmers’ increase, their extent of use of improved goat production technologies in the study area decrease. the result is in agreement with effiong et al (2014) who found age to be negatively signed to output indicating that the farmers output decreases as the farmer’s age increases. the coefficient of education was positively related and statistically significant at 1% level of probability. the result implied that an increase in the level of education of the respondents in the study area will lead to a corresponding increase extent of use of improved goat production technologies in the study area. the result conforms to the researchers a prior expectation that education enhance farmers’ awareness, access to market as well as enhances extent of use of improved goat production technologies. abudu et al., (2014) reported that increase in education of farmers positively influenced access, participation and adoption of improved agricultural practices. this is encouraging because imonikhe (2010) states that education enhances farmers’ ability to make accurate and meaningful management decision. the coefficient of coefficient of house size was positively related and statistically significant at 1% level of probability. this result of implies that an increase in household size will result to a corresponding increase in the extent of use of improved goat production technologies in the study area. the increase of household size suggests that more family labour would be readily available since relatively large household size is an obvious advantage in terms of labour supply, where wage rate is relatively costly (nwaobiala, 2013). the coefficient of farming experience was significant at 1% and positively related to extent of use of improved goat production technologies in the study area. the result implied that a unit increase in the years of farming will lead to an increase in the extent of use of improved goat production technologies in the study area. in agreement with this result, onu and maduka (2017) also found that farming experience has shown to enhance the participation increasing agricultural output. the coefficient of annual farm size was statistically significant at 1% and positively related to the extent of use of improved goat production technologies in the study area. this result implies that a unit increase in the farmers’ farm size will lead to a corresponding increase in the extent of use of improved goat production technologies in the study area. the coefficient of income was statistically significant at 1% and it is positively related to extent of use of improved goat production technologies in the study area. this implies that a unit increase in income will lead to an increase in extent of use of improved goat production technologies in the study area. this may be attributed to the fact that an increase in income will enable the farmers to adopt new farming strategies, buy new equipment, ease transportation and improves investment into the enterprise. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.382 17 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 the null hypothesis which stated that there is no significant relationship between farmer’s socio-economic characteristics and the extent of improved goat production technologies in the study area was therefore rejected at 5% alpha level and concluded otherwise. 3.4 constraints to use of improved goat production technologies table 4. distribution of respondents based on the constraints to use of improved goat production technologies constraints to use of improved goat production technologies frequency percentage the technologies expensive to adopt 92 76.67 procedures were difficult to understand 67 58.83 lack of veterinary experts around you 73 60.83 technologies were against your cultural or religious beliefs 91 75.83 lack of access to credit 120 100.0 lack of credibility from source 120 100.0 farm size is small 104 86.67 difficulty in applying technology 112 93.3 lack of technical support 69 57.5 you were afraid of taking risk 119 99.2 source: field survey, 2019 multiple responses recorded table 4 showed distribution of respondents based on the constraints to use of improved goat production technologies. on constraint to use of improved goat production technologies, all the respondents 100% agreed that lack of access to credit was a constraint in the use of improved technologies. access to credit is expected to increase the adoption (use) of new technologies if the funds are not channeled to other household activities. the result implied that lack of access to credit is a major factor militating against the use of improved agricultural technologies. the result agrees with the findings of abdoulaye et al (2014), aduani sanni (2008), and kasana et al (2010) that access to credit have a positive influence on adoption of new technologies. another 100% agreed that lack of credibility from source of technological information is another reason why they don’t use or adopt improved agricultural practices. this result implies that sources of agricultural information or technologies are not honest. lack of credibility may be in form of lack of follow up service, failure of technology to solve required problem e.t.c. the partnership between farmers and sources of technology must be enhanced and participatory approach must be used, to ensure that farmers are fully involved, chambers et al; (2009). again, a large proportion 99.2% agreed that they were afraid of taking risk. risk refers to imperfect knowledge of the future. it talks about chances of occurrence events that leads to failure. the result implies that farmers were afraid of investing in the new technologies for fear of failure and loss of finance. this result disagrees with the finding of tiamiyu et al (2009) that young farmers exhibit lower risk aversion and that older farmers are more likely to adopt innovation as a result of accumulated knowledge, capital and experience. again about 93.3% agreed that difficulty in technology application served as a constraint in the use of improved technologies. the result implied that the respondents lack the technical know how to handle the innovation. this result is in agreement with the findings of simon (2006) that farmers require certain level of literacy in handling technical recommendation. again 86.67% of the respondent agreed that small farm size was the constraints to use of improved technologies. the result implies that small farm size is a dis incentive to technology adoption. most of the respondents are peasants and operate at a subsistence level which conforms with the findings of djana,(2011). another 76.67% agreed that cost adopting technologies posed as a constraint to improved goat technology use. the result implied that most of the farmers could not afford the technologies as a result of high cost gertrude; (2011). a major characteristics of nigerian farmers is that they are poor and leave poor capital base fao (2013). cost may not always be in terms of money or financial benefit, but if what the farmer is expected to give up is less than what he is to gain, okoosi, (2009). furthermore, 75.83%, of the respondents agreed that technologies were against their cultural and religious believe. the result implies that the respondents did not use technologies that were against their cultural and religious believes. for technologies to be adopted it must be compatible with the existing values, norms and experience of the user. this findings together previous findings from others researchers has led to the formulation of demand driven extension by government and other agencies, according to getrude (2011). about 60.83% of the respondents agreed that lack of veterinary experts around them was one of the constraints to use of improved technologies , the result implies that the respondents did not use technologies that required the expertise of veterinarians because of their none availability in the study area. this finding have a dire implication doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.382 18 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 in the health management of flock. there is inflated cost of animal health service delivery which most times are unavailable, getrude, (2011). huge financial burden is incurred by farmers in an effort to manage diseases within their flock. bester et al (2010). again 58.83% of respondents agreed that difficulty in understanding procedures of technology was a constraint to use of improved goat production technologies. the result implies that the technologies were complex for a large proportion of the farmers to understand. technologies that are too complex are not readily adopted by farmers and this conforms to the findings of djana, (2011). finally, 57.50% of respondents agreed that lack of technical support was a constraint in the use of improve goat technology, the result implied that farmers at one or the other in the adoption process required technical support from technology developers or extension officers. this assistance can be provided through individual and group training. lack of technical support may lead to failure in usage of a technology. 4. conclusion and recommendations the study provided an empirical evidence on use of improved goat production technologies in the study area. it could be inferred from the study that the respondents, highly utilized the available improved production technologies. furthermore, some factors (poor financial status, poor educational background, small size of holding, lack of access to credit, lack of technical support, etc.), served as serious constraint to use of improved goat production technologies and some of these factors, are beyond the control of rural farmers. in conclusion, greater use of available improved technologies will promote productivity, and make goat production a profitable enterprise. based on the findings of the study, the following recommendations were made; (1) credit should be made available to farmers by relevant governmental and nongovernmental agencies to increase the level of use of available improved technologies. (2) agricultural development programmes (adps) should provide necessary technical support to the farmers when needed. references [1] abdelmagid, s.a. and hassan, f.k. (2012). factors aff-ecting the adoption of wheat production technology in the sudan: quarterly journal of international agriculture 35(4): 325 – 337. [2] adunni sanni, s. (2008). animal traction: an underused low external input technology among farming communities in kaduna state, nigeria. tropicultura 26(1): 48-52. [3] ani, a.o. and undiandeye, u.c. (2010): assessment of farmers‘ adoption of improved agricultural technology in soybean production in michika local government area of adamawa state, nigeria. journal of arid agriculture. vol.11. pp. 107 – 111 [4] bester, j., ramsay, k.a. and scholtz, m.m. (2010). goat farming in south africa: findings of a national livestock survey. applied animal husbandry and rural development, 2: 9–13. [5] christiana augustine (2015) analysis of adoption of improved cassava processing technologies by women in ankpa local government area kogi state, nigeria. [6] djana babatima mignouna (2011) adoption and impact of improved agricultural technologies in developing countries: the case of imazapyr-resistant maize in western kenya. thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of doctor of philosophy of sokoine university of agriculture. morogoro, tanzania. [7] food and agriculture organisation (fao) (2012a). aquastat, country profile ghana, food and agriculture organisation, rome, italy. [8] food and agriculture organisation (fao) (2015a). faostat database. food and agricultural organisation of united natiions. accessed may 2012, available at http://faostat.fao.org/site/617/default. aspx₦ancor.. [9] food and agriculture organization of the united nations (2013). an international statistical database 1961-1998 on cd-rom. fao, rome, italy. [10] gertrude dumeh (2011) adoption of improved livestock production technologies and its implications for food accessibility among small ruminant farmers in rural wa municipality of ghana. award of degree of master in management of development specialization “food security [11] gertrude., (2011). the role of livestock in rural livelihoods in ghana: final report presented by ministry of food and agriculture (mofa) and department for international development (dfid. accra. [12] ijere, m.o, (2012) leading issues in rural development. enugu acena publishers, pp.1-8. [13] imonikhe, d. (2012). effects of farmers level of education and cooperative membership on access to agricultural extension services in abuja, nigeria. [14] kansana, h. s., sharma, r.p. and sharma, s.k. (2010). knowledge and adoption of wheat technology among contact and non-contact farmer. digest doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.382 19 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 karnal. agricultural science 16:154 -156. [15] lebbie, s.h.b. (2014). goats under household conditions. small ruminant research, 51(2), 131-136. [16] nwaobiala, c.u. (2013). economic analysis of small holders rice production systems in ebonyi state south east, nigeria. [17] oladoja et al, (2008). training needs of fisherfolks on fishing technologies. [18] onu, s.e. and maduka, o.a. (2017) assessment of conservation measures of selected tree crops going into extinction adopted by rural farmers in ohafia l.g.a of abia state, nigeria. international journal of agricultural and earth science (ijaes). vol. 2 no. 6 issn 2489 – cc81. www.iiardpub.org [19] onu, s.e., ekweanya n.m. and mbah c.g. (2016). analysis of access to credit among rural cassava farmers in imo state, nigeria. [20] peacock, c. (2015). goats—a pathway out of poverty. small ruminant research, 60(1), 179-186. [21] simon, m.m.s. (2012). adoption of rotational woodlot technology in semi-arid areas of tanzania: the case of tabora region. thesis for award of phd degree at sokoine university of agriculture, morogoro, tanzania, 237pp. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.382 35 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae the role of farmers’ social networks in adopting climate smart agriculture: case of horticultural farmers in nyeri county, kenya joram ngugi kamau1*　ibrahim nyariki kiprop2　geoffrey kosgei kipruto2 1. department of agricultural economics and agribusiness management, egerton university, kenya 2. department of agribusiness management and agricultural education, chuka university, kenya article info abstract article history received: 1 december 2020 revised: 7 december 2020 accepted: 8 december 2020 published online: 30 december 2020 this paper aimed at depicting how farmers use their informal networks to share information on climate smart agriculture especially on conservation agriculture. the study used social network analysis (sna) in ucinet to depict the pattern of information sharing on conservation agriculture among individual farmers and farmer groups. the study identified the structural importance of various actors in the farmers’ social networks. power and centrality measures of various farmers were identified. values for ego betweenness, coordinator and gatekeeper brokerage roles were normalized so that differences in network sizes were accounted for. the study identified several farmers who were identified to be critical in information sharing among horticultural farmers in nyeri county. farmers’ social networks were found to play a pivotal role in the dissemination of information with key farmers identified as central actors in the network. social network theory examines social structure from the perspective that relationships between two parties or more are partly influenced by the external ties possessed by each other with the degree of influence varying among the actors. this research demonstrates the need for agricultural research institutions to identify and liaise with actors with high degree of centrality in the jurisdiction of information and resource dissemination to guarantee maximum adoption of new technologies by the target groups. keywords: farmers’ social networks conservation agriculture centrality measures 　 1. introduction global climate change has led to sporadic and vol-atility of weather conditions making it uncertain for agricultural production [1]. conceição indicated that 48% of african population (450 million) lives in thrilling poverty with 63% of the continent’s poor living in rural areas depending on agriculture for their livelihoods [2]. agriculture is the largest sector worldwide and 70% of the africa’s population relies on agriculture. in kenya, the sector accounts for over 25% of the country’s gdp, 20% of employment, 75% of the labor force, and over 50% of revenue from exports [3]. the food and agriculture organization (fao) of the united nations in 2010 defined climate smart agriculture (csa) as agriculture that would have three components; sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and incomes; adapting and building resilience to climate change and reducing and/or recovering greenhouse gases emissions where applicable [4]. csa is an approach aimed at developing the technical, policy and investment conditions to achieve sustainable agricultural development for food security under climate change [5]. a report by kenya climate smart agriculture impledoi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.241 *corresponding author: joram ngugi kamau, department of agricultural economics and agribusiness management, egerton university, kenya; email: ngugij88@gmail.com 36 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 mentation framework (kcsaif) 2018-2027 indicates that kenya has experienced rising temperatures over the last 50 years coupled with intense and extreme weather events like droughts and floods. according to the report, future climatic predictions for kenya indicate possible temperature increase of 1ºc by 2020 and 2.3ºc by 2050 [6]. according to kabubo and kabara, agricultural production in kenya has been on the decline from 2015 to 2018 due to erratic weather conditions during the period. with declining production juxtaposed by an exponentially growing population, food security and household welfare of farmers are adversely affected. according to the ministry of agriculture, livestock and fisheries (moalf), about 98% of kenya’s agricultural activities are rain-fed and therefore highly susceptible to climate change and climate variability [7]. climate smart agriculture is a recent occurrence in kenya that was launched in 2017 by the moalf with an aim of building an agricultural system that will sustainably increase productivity, adapt and build resilience to the likely effects of climate change and reduce/or remove greenhouse gas emissions without compromising productivity [7]. this will be achieved through; access to and use of adaptive technologies, increase area under efficient irrigation, value addition and products development, competitiveness and markets access for climate smart products and coordinated food storage and distribution [7]. with the effects of global warming evident in kenya, agricultural sector has become sensitive and highly vulnerable to climate change and variability in terms of prolonged dry spells, droughts, floods and other extreme events. due to the high dependency on rain fed agriculture amongst farmers in kenya, recha found that agricultural productivity has decreased by 1% in the last decade due to climate related adversities. according to the study, smallholder farmers in kenya, oblivious of their actions, are gradually adopting sustainable agricultural practices as a reflex action towards the impacts climate change [8]. this study conceptualized climate smart agriculture as an activity or process that horticultural farmers in kieni exercise with a view of ensuring sustainable agriculture. with the adoption of climate smart and ecologically sustainable production methods along the agricultural value chain, agricultural productivity, food security and household income will be sparked across the country. these methods include among others; minimum tillage, crop rotation, crop diversification, water harvesting and irrigation. 2. materials and methods the sample unit for this study consisted of smallholder horticultural farmers drawn from kieni administrative constituency in nyeri county. first, nyeri county was purposively selected because of the large number of small-scale horticultural farmers. within the county, kieni sub-county was also purposively selected because this is where intensive horticultural farming is done. two sub-locations were also purposively selected from this sub-county. households were randomly selected within the sub-locations to yield a sample size of 100 farmers who acted as the egos where alters’ networks were generated. these sub-locations were selected based on their similar rural classification, close proximity to each other and their similarities in terms of livelihood activities, which predominantly are horticultural farming areas. structured questionnaires were prepared to collect quantitative data for the study. primary data sources for the study were the sampled farm households, both male and female heads. the developed questionnaires were pretested to evaluate for consistency, clarity and to avoid duplication. network interviews were conducted as part of the household survey during the fieldwork. a person-based data collection strategy was employed within the household survey questionnaire and from this; a set of indicators, each referring to different aspects of social networks, were constructed. a name generator approach was employed when the interviewed household heads (egos) were asked to name people from whom they get information from. the first step was whether from extension officers, radio, television or from fellow farmers. those who indicated to get information from fellow farmers (alters) were qualified for network mapping and therefore a follow-up question was to list alters’ names and attributes. alters’ names were recorded in response matrices which were later coded during the analysis. further questions were posed concerning attributes of the network partner (sex, age and geographical locations), the nature of the relationship between network partner and household heads and multiple role relationships. this data formed the “interaction” network of the household head. 3. results from the 100 sampled farmers, each farmer (henceforth referred to as ego) was probed to identify the contacts they rely on to source information (henceforth referred to as alters). each ego was to identify utmost three contacts from which they get information on climate smart agriculture. the egos were coded numerically from 1 to 100 while each ego’s alters were coded as the numerical number of the ego with alphabets a, b and c representing the first to the third alter chronologically. the multiplier effect was a doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.241 37 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 net of 293 actors. figure 1. farmers sociograph figure 1 illustrates the network structure revealed by farmers in nyeri county. the size of the node is identical to its in-degree centrality. the larger the node, the higher the level of its centrality measure and vice versa. nodes 2a, 17a, 23, 24, 33 and 45 recorded the largest degree of centrality. the implication is that the sampled farmers in kieni sub county identified the listed farmers as the most valuable information contacts on climate smart agriculture. these were the farmers that practiced conservation agriculture in their horticultural management practices. figure 2. ego’s network figure 2 represents the structure of the egos network where egos happened to rely on other egos to get information on climate smart agriculture. to help describe the network composition and affiliations, a follow-up on the sampled egos (who were alters as well) was probed to identify their relationship. this is captured by the network affiliations in figure 3. figure 3. network affiliations the heterogeneous nature of the farmer’s network in kieni as indicated in figure 3 is an important phenomenon in network theories. first, similarity breeds connections and that individuals with a similarity in character will act as a pull factor. secondly, the mix element in the net heterogeneity ensures that a diverse distribution and dissemination of resources and information is guaranteed. with such a mix of farmers, diversity in approaching conservation agriculture is guaranteed where input variation across various affiliations deter information and resource “inbreeding”. 4. discussions and conclusion from figure 1, the economic importance of the farmers is that they are valuable media in information and resource dissemination. if these actors can be tapped, empowered and be resource endowed, they can be used by the government to transmit agricultural information to farmers in an efficient and economic manner. farmers 2a, 33 and 6c from figure 1 recorded the highest level of betweeness centrality. the isolate nodes were disregarded as they don’t meet the network threshold. the assumption was, for a farmer to be in a network matrix, he/she must have at least one in-degree and out-degree centrality. betweeness centrality is a critical concept in a network map. farmers 2a, 33 and 6c are very vital in connecting otherwise the unconnected others. they act as gatekeepers and their brokerage role in the flow of resources and information is very vital. in their absence, the network would be disconnected and are therefore information bridges. figure 3 describes the network affiliations in terms doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.241 38 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 of neighbourhood, group membership and age mates. these three aspects were identified to be critical in describing the network homophily. communities’ informal networks in the country remain as untapped avenues that can be used to supplement the extension services by the government. as indicated by the study, farmers rely on fellow farmers to get new information and resources as opposed to the conventional extension service providers. social networks especially in agricultural management practices remain widely unexploited and therefore remain as a viable avenue for information dissemination across the country. it’s imperative that agricultural research institutions identifies and liaise with actors with high degree of centrality in the jurisdiction of information and resource dissemination. furthermore, the demonstration projects on sustainable agriculture in the country should be integrated based on the structural and network centralities of the target communities to ensure maximum adoption of new technologies. with increased risk and uncertainty in agrarian economy due to effects of global warming, climate smart agriculture is inevitable. acknowledgments the study wishes to acknowledge all the horticultural farmers interviewed especially in kiawara and chaka administrative wards of nyeri county. special thanks go to the enumerators involved in data collection. declaration of interest statement there is no any conflict of interest whatsoever among the authors or any other party. funding source there was no external source of funding other than the authors’ contributions. references [1] davis, c. l., vincent, k. climate risk and vulnerability: a handbook for southern africa, 2017. [2] conceição, p., levine, s., lipton, m., warren-rodríguez, a. toward a food secure future: ensuring food security for sustainable human development in sub-saharan africa. food policy, 2016, 60: 1-9. [3] kanyua, m. j., waluse, g. k. i. s. k., wairimu, w. r. factors influencing profitability of diversified cash crop farming among smallholder tea farmers in gatanga district, kenya. journal of economics and sustainable development, 2015. issn: 2222-1700 [4] jost, c., kyazze, f., naab, j., neelormi, s., kinyangi, j., zougmore, r., nelson, s. understanding gender dimensions of agriculture and climate change in smallholder farming communities. climate and development, 2016, 8(2): 133-144. [5] lipper, l., thornton, p., campbell, b. m., baedeker, t., braimoh, a., bwalya, m., hottle, r. climate-smart agriculture for food security. nature climate change, 2014, 4(12): 1068-1072. [6] kabubo-mariara j., kabara, m. climate change and food security in kenya.in agricultural adaptation to climate change in africa, routledge, 2018: 55-80. [7] republic of kenya. moalf: economic review of agriculture [era] 2018.central planning and project monitoring unit, moalf, nairobi, kenya, 2018. available at: h t t p : / / w w w . k i l i m o . g o . k e / w p c o n t e n t / u p l o a d s / 2 0 1 8 / 1 0 / e c o n o m i c r e v i e w o f a g r i c u l ture_2018-2.pdf [accessed on 2nd february, 2020] [8] recha, j. w., mati, b. m., nyasimi, m., kimeli, p. k., kinyangi, j. m., radeny, m. changing rainfall patterns and farmers’ adaptation through soil water management practices in semi-arid eastern kenya. arid land research and management, 2016, 30(3): 229-238. doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.241 49 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.428 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae practice and thinking of traditional chinese medicine agriculture helping rural revitalization lijian zhang* biotechnology research institute, chinese academy of agricultural sciences, beijing, china article info abstract article history received: 16 june 2021 accepted: 1 july 2021 published online: 31 july 2021 china is a big agricultural country with a long history, and has created a brilliant agricultural civilization. agriculture has always been an important foundation of china’s national economy and has made great achievements. at present, promoting sustainable agricultural development has become an important part of the strategic adjustment of china’s economic development mode, and it is of great significance to explore and strive to blaze a path of sustainable agricultural development with chinese characteristics.keywords: traditional chinese medicine (tcm) agriculture rural 1. introduction traditional chinese medicine is a scientific system based on ancient chinese materialism and dialectics as the philosophy and the holism as the guiding ideology. traditional chinese medicine understands nature, and life with a connected, developing and comprehensive perspective. what the “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” means is to apply the principles and methods of traditional chinese medicine to the agricultural field, and to realize the cross-border integration of modern agriculture and traditional chinese medicine, complementing each other’s advantages and integrated innovation. “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” is the carrier of chinese traditional farming culture, the crystallization of the diligence and wisdom of the chinese nation for thousands of years, the integrated inheritance and innovative development of agricultural culture and traditional chinese medicine culture, and an ecological agriculture with chinese characteristics. “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” keeps pace with the times and has made rapid progress in the field of research and development. it has played an important role in production practice and will make due contributions to “rural revitalization” and “the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind”. “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” can be the comprehensive prevention and control of water, soil and gas pollution and improve the producing environment, promote the healthy growth of animals and plants, ensure the effective supply and quality and safety of agricultural products, and explore a new way for the sustainable development of agriculture in china and even the world. “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” is an ecological agriculture with chinese characteristics. “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” has three characteristics: first it is systematic, focusing on the internal connection of agricultural ecosystem and all parts of about the author: lijian zhang, former vice president of chinese academy of agricultural sciences, “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” initiative scientist, researcher, doctoral supervisor; biotechnology research institute, chinese academy of agricultural sciences, beijing, china; 50 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 the organism, which is the essential requirement of maintaining relative stability and harmony between agricultural components; second, it is comprehensive, forming multi-faceted, multi-level composite effect, namely achieving comprehensive effect through comprehensive means; third, it is whole, emphasizing covering all production units and planting and breeding chain. 2. the theory and practice of “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” it is mainly reflected in three aspects: 1, producing pesticide and veterinary medicine to protect the growth of animals and plants; 2, producing fertilizers and feed through the combination of chinese herbal medicine and natural nutrition elements to promote the growth of animals and plants; 3, regulating the growth of animals and plants by the mutual promotion and restrict mechanism between animals and plants (such as live chinese herbal medicine organism) and other biological communities. “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” can reduce the use of chemical pesticides, chemical fertilizers, chemical feed additives and various antibiotics and hormones, which is conducive to the healthy growth of animals and plants, and the implementation of environment-friendly prevention and control of diseases and insect pests. “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” keeps pace with the times and has had a good impact at home and abroad. it has made rapid progress in the research and development, and has played an important role in production practice. cnki journal paper search results show more than 6000 papers about “tcm agriculture”, and there are hundreds of thousands of researchers in “tcm agriculture” related research and development projects in national universities, scientific research agencies, and more than 1 million agricultural operators apply “tcm agriculture” thinking and techniques in agricultural production progresses, with good results, and they have accumulated a lot of experience and data. at the same time, developing a large number of “tcm agriculture” series of inputs. in recent years, various inputs of “tcm agriculture” have shown remarkable results in production practice. take three of the inputs of tcm agricultural series as an example: in 2019, 34 agricultural products of 520,000 mu in 26 provinces (cities and autonomous regions), generally manifested as high quality and high yield, ecological safety, integrity, full color and fragrance, strong functionality, long preservation period, good adverse resistance and reduced production costs. at the same time, the soil repair agent of tcm agriculture input can significantly improve the soil mass structure, microbial community and organic matter content. at present, in the production practice, “tcm agriculture” has formed a 10 series of inputs with good results. in terms of market development, agricultural production experiments show that the agricultural products produced by tcm agricultural technology have a clear degree of product quality differentiation. the concept of agricultural products in traditional chinese medicine is easier to be accepted by consumers. traditional chinese medicine agricultural products have the characteristics of “differentiation”, which will help to build a well-known local agricultural products brand. “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” can produce “food homologous medicine” or “functional agricultural products” that are conducive to the sub-health population accounting for about 70% of the total population to improve their immunity, which will produce important application value in the development and application of food homologous medicine, health food and food for special medical use. “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” has innovated the way of agricultural scientific research and production methods, providing new and huge space for research and development for the innovation of agricultural science and technology system with chinese characteristics, and “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” has created a new field to explore the sustainable development of mankind and the world. in practice, we can connect with industrial strong town projects. “traditional chinese medicine agricultural industry strong town project” are composed of four levels of business formats: 1, basic business format, which generally refers to the basic agriculture (traditional chinese medicine agricultural planting, breeding), and processing industry. 2, intermediate business format, which refers to the business format that has interactive experience with consumers, including catering, leisure, entertainment, health preservation, and cultural experience, etc. 3, advanced business format, which refers to the tcm agricultural products experience (stores), (monopoly) stores or (characteristic) products that are branded and can be exported. 4, characteristic business format, which refers to the unique local, or the most well-known business format system (authentic traditional chinese medicinal materials and the local superior tcm agricultural products), etc. the business formats at the four levels are integrated with each other to jointly form the industrial ecosystem of “the towns characterized by tcm agriculture.” experts pointed out that the “traditional chinese medicine agricultural industry strong town project” is the way combining urbanization with industry, which not only provides an innovative model for the coordinated and sustainable development of social, economic and ecological, but also provides doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.428 51 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 a personalized choice plan for human development. “tcm agricultural industry strong town project” is a future community in life. around the high-end characteristic tcm agricultural industry, the town will gather a number of relevant high-end talents, and form a future community with life, production, ecology and characteristic cultural connotation and spirit. the town will also attract tourists by the uniqueness of the tcm industry, culture and life, deeply integrating the development of traditional chinese medicine agricultural industry with culture, tourism, health and other industries, to form an emerging agricultural industry chain such as leisure agriculture. the preparation of “traditional chinese medicine agricultural industry strong town project” should establish “tcm agriculture comprehensive demonstration base”. taking the “tcm agricultural planting stereoscopic production (experimental) demonstration base” project as an example, according to the “agricultural application of traditional chinese medicine principles and techniques (tcm agriculture)” thinking, the “demonstration base” has three objectives: 1. to build an efficient ecological agriculture model with chinese characteristics; 2. to produce food homologous medicines and functional agricultural products; 3. to restore and improve the property of authentic traditional chinese medicinal materials and chinese medicinal herbs. “tcm agriculture comprehensive demonstration base” should include three levels of design content: 1, basic level, which optimizes the practice of agricultural production with traditional chinese medicine technology (producing pesticide and veterinary medicine, feed fertilizer and natural conditioners based on the principle of chinese herbal medicine blending); 2, intermediate level, which uses traditional chinese medicine thinking and methods to coordinate agricultural production ideas (based on the mutual promotion and restrict mechanism, use the interaction between biological communities to improve the function of the agricultural system); 3, advanced level, which refers to “holistic view of traditional chinese medicine” to improve the layout of agricultural production (unity of nature and man, harmony between man and nature, etc.), and integrates the ecological circulation planting and breeding technology mode based on the healthy circulation theory of traditional chinese medicine. the basic conditions for the “demonstration base”: 1. the areas with good ecological environment are selected as the project areas; local authentic chinese herbal medicine and advantageously functional agricultural products and the “tcm agricultural inputs” that have good performance in production practice are selected as pesticide, veterinary drugs, fertilizer, feed and growth regulation; 2, food homologous medicine or functional agricultural products aimed at improving the sub-health population accounting for about 70% of the total population are produced, with the local advantage of food and drug homologous agricultural products brand being formed; 3, the industrial chains are optimized and extended, with an industrial cluster with good benefits and reasonable structure being formed, and the “internet” in ten places (the relevant big cities) and the sales channels of the tcm agricultural product experience stores being established; 4, the combination of forest and animal husbandry, efficient planting, characteristic breeding and deep processing are formed, with entrepreneurial innovation, population of science and leisure, science and technology incubation and other functions, and i, ii and iii industries are intergraded to form the “traditional chinese medicine agricultural planting and breeding three-dimensional production demonstration base” with a complete industrial chain. we should use the principle of traditional chinese medicine holistic view guiding “traditional chinese medicine agricultural demonstration base” design: 1, agriculture is an integrated management system, covering farming, forest, animal husbandry and fishing, and we should pay attention to the overall function of the agricultural system, according to the local situation to conduct appropriate planting or breeding and the matching with large ecosystem, aiming at the highest overall output level (output, quality and efficiency). 2. according to the regional natural conditions, we should flexibly choose the agricultural planting and breeding structure, building a composite ecological system mode, to benefit the multi-level utilization of material and energy, improving the utilization rate of space and light energy and increasing the quality and yield. 3. moderate-scale planting and breeding combination can play the ecological function of the holistic agriculture in order to achieve the best output benefits. high efficiency of material circulation and energy conversion must also be built on a certain scale. in addition, a large agricultural system and subsystems with certain scales are needed to effectively resist large natural disasters.4. the diversity of species in the composite ecosystem can improve the efficiency of material circulation and energy conversion, thus can make full use of organic residues, increase the organic source of breeding feed and planting fertilizer, reduce the use of chemical fertilizers and feed additives, and provide natural conditions for pest prevention and control, thus reducing the use of chemical agents. “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” works in the long term, not in the moment, it should accelerate the development on the basis of good security and stability. “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” will produce the effect of gathering resources, complementing each doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.428 52 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 other’s advantages, integrating innovation and win-win cooperation. it has very important social, economic and ecological benefits and will make due contributions to the rural revitalization and healthy china strategy. 3. “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” recognized highly at home and abroad former director-general of the un food and agriculture organization (fao) graziano delivered a speech at the 15th world congress on traditional chinese medicine and said that the latest concept of “tcm agriculture” will be included in the fao work plan. “traditional chinese medicine originated in ancient chinese farming society, traditional chinese medicine and agriculture are the two oldest industries in china. the tradition and modernity of traditional chinese medicine agriculture get integrated, develop innovatively, and this will be china’s major contribution to mankind”. said professor he jialun, fao pharmaceutical consultant and vice chairman of the world federation of traditional chinese medicine societies. sang binsheng, vice chairman and secretary general of the world federation of societies of traditional chinese medicine, noted that the agricultural application of traditional chinese medicine principles and techniques (tcm agriculture) highlights the world. the cross-border integration, complementary advantages and integrated innovation of traditional chinese medicine and agriculture have far-reaching significance for the development of the two fields. on november 17, 2018, the 15th world congress of traditional chinese medicine opened in rome. dr. zhang lijian, the initiator of agricultural application of traditional chinese medicine principles and techniques (tcm agriculture), was invited to make the report on the theme of “developing traditional chinese medicine agriculture, taking the road of ecological agriculture with chinese characteristics”. on the 19th, dr. zhang lijian and his delegation were invited to visit the headquarter of the united nations food and agriculture organization (fao, rome) and discussed with four relevant departments including the department of south-south cooperation (dpss) to discuss the agricultural application of traditional chinese medicine principles and techniques (tcm agriculture) and reached consensus on the project cooperation. on september 28, 2019, dr. zhang lijian, the initiator of “tcm agriculture”, was invited to attend the un industrial development organization (unldo) global science and technology innovation conference in shanghai, and won the outstanding contribution award and delivered a special report of “tcm agriculture help green agriculture innovation and development” at the conference. academician yuan longping, the winner of the national supreme science and technology award and the father of hybrid rice, said: “this is a good and big project. i can be your consultant, and my 19 bases can be experimental fields”. li zhensheng, the winner of the national academy of science and technology award and former vice president of the chinese academy of sciences, said: “the researchers at the chinese academy of sciences have been doing the relevant research. yours are higher, more systematic and more meaningful than ecological agriculture. on september 28, 2019, the united nations industrial development organization (unldo) global science and technology innovation conference was held in shanghai. dr. zhang lijian, former vice president of the chinese academy of agricultural sciences, was invited to deliver a special report on “tcm agriculture help green agriculture innovation and development” at the conference, and won the “outstanding contribution award”. at the conference, zhang lijian was recommended as the executive chairman of the global scientific and technological innovation expert committee of the united nations industrial development organization. during the period, academician wang weiqi, the chairman of the unido evaluation committee of global conference on science and technology innovation award, and academician huang chongqi, the chairman of review supervision committee and two committee experts said that the agricultural application of traditional chinese medicine principles and techniques (tcm agriculture) is a major innovation, conducive to agricultural sustainable development, national sustainable development, and will even benefit human and global sustainable development. 4. thoughts and suggestions on “traditional chinese medicine agriculture helping rural revitalization” (i) 1. we should link the development of tcm agricultural industry with the strategies of rural revitalization and healthy china, and take tcm agricultural characteristic industries as the platform and important starting point to promote rural revitalization, especially rural industrial revitalization. 2. we should adhere to the principle of market leading and government support, and support the select the tcm agriculture-related leading industries with good foundation, large scale and distinctive comparative advantages in the region, to build a batch of tcm agriculture-related characteristic industrial clusters with reasonable structure and complete chains, stepping up efforts to strengthen, complement and extend the chain. 3. we should form joint efforts in agricultural development of doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.428 53 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 traditional chinese medicine, overcome difficulties, and form innovative development approaches and ideas. it is necessary to further excavate the characteristic resources of tcm agriculture and highlight its industrial characteristics. efforts should be made to establish a group of different types of traditional chinese medicine agricultural demonstration bases with obvious innovation efficiency, remarkable industry driving effect and efficient synergistic mechanism. 4. at present, we should implant “tcm agriculture” in the process of organic agriculture production, integrating the advantages, to fill the shortage of high production cost and low yield of organic agriculture, to ensure the quantity and quality of high-quality agricultural products and market demand, and to effectively promote the development of organic agriculture. 5. as the food with the highest safety coefficient, the products of traditional chinese medicine agriculture have broad market demand, and at the same time, the production process of “tcm agriculture” emphasizes the harmony between man and nature, advocates environmental protection and ecological balance, and emphasizes sustainable development, which is a good model for the concept of “green development.” national development plan of tcm agriculture should be formulated to guide and promote its healthy and orderly development. 6. we should formulate industrial standards for tcm agriculture and build a unified certification and supervision platform. it is necessary to formulate the production standards and product standards of tcm agriculture, and special institutions should be set up to supervise the production, logistics, processing, sales and testing of tcm agriculture. we should strictly enforce product certification standards and procedures, build a unified product certification platform and traceability system, and standardize the punishment and exit mechanism. 7. we should promote multidisciplinary and collaborative research, to promote the construction of the discipline system of tcm agriculture in universities and related research institutes, to deepen the research on the key fields and mechanism of tcm agriculture, and to cultivate reserve talents. 8. we should combine with the “double reduction” measures of chemical fertilizer of the ministry of agriculture and rural affairs, and carry out the “replacing the chemical fertilizer with the traditional chinese medicine fertilizer” action nationwide. we should vigorously develop chinese herbal medicine, greatly increase the supply of chinese herbal medicine without occupying cultivated land, making tcm agriculture fertilizer medicine, facility vegetables and fruit, emphasizing regional key points, focusing on superior producing areas, relying on the base of the park and taking the new agricultural operation subject as the core, promoting the action of replacing chemical fertilizer with agricultural fertilizer of traditional chinese medicine to the direction of socialization and industrialization. 9. we should intensify the financial support of agricultural development of traditional chinese medicine, give full play to the role of agricultural special funds, give priority to traditional chinese medicine agricultural projects, set up purchase subsidy policy for traditional chinese medicine agricultural fertilizer to the farmers and enterprises engaged in agricultural production of traditional chinese medicine, and encourage and support agricultural fertilizer of traditional chinese medicine research and development institutions and production enterprises. 10. we should actively meet the social needs of health care, cultivate the industrial chain of “tcm agriculture”, and promote the formation of industrial clusters in the key areas of general concern. 11. we need to establish a national experimental area of tcm agriculture to form a variety of replicable and popularizable models. at present, agricultural experimental bases of traditional chinese medicine distributed throughout the country use chinese herbal medicine fertilizer, organic manure, beneficial microorganisms, and marine organisms and trace fertilizers in minerals to replace chemical fertilizers, forming an efficient ecological model that can solve the problem of low yield of organic agriculture. it has led a number of agricultural enterprises nationwide, and can be upgraded to a national pilot area. 12. we will actively build the “tcm agriculture research and development platform (center)” and develop it into a new agriculture-related discipline. tcm agriculture will add a series of new innovative highlights to the field of agricultural science and technology research and development, with the characteristics of major agricultural science and technology projects. support should be approved at the national level. 13. we should prepare for the achievement transformation and technology integration demonstration base. the goal of the base is to produce “food homologous medicine” or “functional agricultural products” that are conducive to the sub-health population that account for about 70% of the total population to improve their immunity. we should link tcm agriculture to agricultural project bases, combining with related modern agricultural industrial park and storage and transportation of agricultural industry, to promote the connection of tcm agricultural ecological food materials and ecological restaurants; 14. we actively create conditions, organize and set up the “traditional chinese medicine agriculture association.” we should publish 100 cases of agricultural application of traditional chinese medicine principles and techniques (tcm agriculture) as soon as possible, and cultivate a large number of new professional farmers who are skilled in the production skills of tcm doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.428 54 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 agriculture. 15. there are many ethnic minorities in the western region. we should increase support for the development of ethnic minority areas, and based on the cultivation of local agricultural characteristic resources, we should expand the poverty alleviation industry, extend the industrial chain, improve the mechanism of connecting interests, and make contributions to all ethnic groups into a well-off society. 16. we should establish an international cooperation platform and establish an international alliance of tcm agricultural science and technology innovation and industrial development as soon as possible. the establishment of the alliance will be conducive to summarize these experience, promote the better, more stable and faster development of tcm agriculture, expand the cooperation and exchanges of experts and related enterprises in the field and promote the theoretical and technological innovation of tcm agriculture, exploring a new way of ecological agricultural production with chinese characteristics, and making due contributions to the construction of “community with a shared future for mankind”. (ii) we should make up for the shortcomings of the “tcm agriculture”, strengthen the “tcm agriculture” in basic research and development, excellent input used areas, industrial (supply) chain establishment and industrial cluster formation, farmers’ interests and brand market promotion, so as to make tcm agriculture develop well and rapidly, and make greater contributions to rural revitalization and healthy china. first, we should build a research and development platform. from the national level, we should pay close attention to resource integration, cross-border integration, complementary advantages, and integrated innovation, actively build the “tcm agriculture research and development platform (center)”, carry out systematic, in-depth and meticulous research, and develop the “tcm agriculture” into a new discipline related to agriculture. second, we should plan and approve projects. traditional chinese medicine agriculture will add a series of new innovative highlights to the field of agricultural science and technology research and development, with the characteristics of major agricultural science and technology projects. it is suggested to plan the project from the national level. a basic research and development project of cultivating efficient and multi-effective new medicinal plants (products) species to lay a good foundation for the good, fast and stable research and development of “tcm agriculture”. third, we should prepare the achievement transformation and technology integration demonstration bases. it is suggested to build a number of demonstration bases of tcm agriculture as soon as possible to help the achievement transformation of “food homologous medicine industry development”. the goals of the bases are to produce “food homologous medicine” or “functional agricultural products” that are conducive to the immunity of the sub-health population accounting for about 70% of the total population. fourth, we should link tcm agriculture to all levels of agricultural project bases. it is suggested to give priority to the ecological origins and the hometown of traditional chinese medicine agriculture production bases. the modern agricultural industrial park, closely combined with the development of tcm agricultural industry, and the storage, transportation and marketing projects supporting the agricultural industry, promote the connection of tcm agricultural ecological food materials and ecological restaurants. fifth, we will strengthen institutional improvement and team building, actively create conditions, organize and set up the “traditional chinese medicine agriculture association”. “the principles and application of traditional chinese medicine agriculture” should be compiled as soon as possible, and a large number of new professional farmers who can master the production skills of tcm agriculture should be educated and trained. sixth, we should establish youth experience bases of traditional chinese medicine agricultural cultivation farms, utilizing china modern agriculture and industrialization forum and platform to build a farming pastoral complex integrating with farming law, labor education, ecological catering, ecological experience, outdoor expansion, wedding photography, leisure fishing, science research and rural health, improve and maintain a high level of organic matter content of soil based on the cycle and balance of organic farming and by means of farmland waste returning to the field. under the premise of ensuring the soil water and fertilizer conservation capacity, the soil sustainable production and utilization capacity will be gradually improved. we will adhere to the harmonious coexistence between man and nature and take the path of ecological development. we will build a platform carrier and important starting point for the revitalization of “chinese food landmark” and “china cultural and tourism landmark” cultivation and cultural publicity and education base industry.” 5. main action of “traditional chinese medicine agriculture helping rural revitalization” during the 14th five-year plan period the 14th five-year plan is the first five years to start a new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country. it is also a key five years to comprehensively promote rural revitalization and accelerate agricultural and rural modernization. it is a milestone in china’s doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.428 55 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 development process. at present, there are 1 million new agricultural business entities in china, 2.2 million farmers cooperatives, 893,000 various agricultural socialized service organizations, and nearly 90,000 leading agricultural industrialization enterprises above the county level, creating the foundation and conditions for “agricultural application of traditional chinese medicine principles and techniques (tcm agriculture).” during the 14th five-year plan period, “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” usher in an important historical period of development and will make due contributions to rural revitalization. i. implant the “agricultural application of traditional chinese medicine principles and techniques (tcm agriculture)” into the agricultural production procedures of state supported agricultural key projects, to produce products with high quality and high yield, ecological safety, good color, flavor and function, long and good resistance, and reduce production costs while improving farmland quality to achieve resource integration, complementary advantages, integrated innovation, cooperation and mutual benefits. ii. set up a batch of “tcm agricultural planting and breeding three-dimensional production demonstration base” projects, according to the “agricultural application of traditional chinese medicine principles and techniques (tcm agriculture)” thinking and “overall view of traditional chinese medicine” design project plan. iii. explore the establishment of a “tcm agricultural production trusteeship service system” in line with the national conditions. at present, the family operation of small and medium-sized farmers is still the most main management mode of agriculture in china. according to data, the number of small farmer households in the country accounts for 98.1% of agricultural farmers, and the area of small farmers accounts for more than 70% of the total arable land. due to the different agricultural resource endowment, it is crucial to strengthen the role of supporting small farmers in the development of tcm agricultural industry according to local conditions. to accelerate the development of the tcm agricultural industry, we should enable small farmers to stimulate the endogenous development vitality, enhance the endogenous development driving force, enhance the endogenous development capacity, and take the development road of the endogenous tcm agricultural industry. iv. build the agricultural industrial chain operation mode of “market driving leading enterprises, the leading enterprises driving the bases and the bases connecting farmers” of tcm agriculture. do a good job in both ends of the value chain of tcm agricultural industry: technology and brand, other links to integrate the best industrial chain resources, and become the organizer and integrator of the industrial chain. form a tcm agricultural industrial system of “industrial park plus logistics park plus service base plus regional agriculture” (forming an industrial cluster-driven type). v. need to pay attention to two effects: 1. the tcm agricultural industry should help to meet the requirements for the development of emerging industries in the national strategies of the guangdong-hong kong-macao greater bay area, the yangtze river economic belt, the yangtze river delta regional integration, and the coordinated development of the beijing-tianjin-hebei region. 2. with the expansion of the industrial scale, the industrial layout should achieve the comprehensive improvement of the competitiveness of the whole tcm agricultural industry by promoting the development of key clusters in key areas. vi. expand agricultural functions, deeply integrate the development of traditional chinese medicine agricultural industry with culture, tourism, health care and other industries, and form an emerging agricultural industry chain such as leisure agriculture. according to the data from 2019, the number of domestic tourists is 6.006 billion, with the total tourism revenue of 6.63 trillion yuan. vii. implement and timely promote “zhongguancun green valley ecological agriculture industry alliance” approved and issued group standards: agricultural standardization of traditional chinese medicine, part 1: standards for production, processing, identification and management, the standard number is t/gveaia 015-2020. viii. 100 cases of agricultural application of traditional chinese medicine principles and techniques (tcm agriculture) compiled by the branch of tcm and agriculture, wfcms, and the international union of tcm agriculture will be published and distributed by china agricultural science and technology publishing house. ix. develop the “basic formula table of tcm agricultural inputs” as soon as possible, so that local agricultural science and technology personnel can adapt according to the local actual needs (different agricultural products and producing environment, etc.) to achieve better results in production practice, and then explore the methods of “ai matching and screening platform technology,” “remote hybrid” and “haploid breeding” to form an upgraded version of the “basic matching table” with better tcm production results. x. give full play to the role of tcm agriculture in the effective connection between poverty alleviation and rural revitalization industries. over the years, the “tcm agriculture” team in the rocky desertification area in the southwest, the eastern saline area, the western cold dry doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.428 56 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 area and the vast grassland area will implant the tcm agriculture into the local traditional agricultural production mode, forming a lot of experience and results of promotion modes of tcm agriculture technology integration in the above areas of, and based on these experience and achievements, develop the tcm agricultural industry with local characteristics, and promote the coordinated and sustainable development of social economy and ecology in the above-mentioned regions. xi. increase the development support for the western region, based on the local tcm agricultural characteristics (such as: complex and changeable southwest mountainous terrain preserves rich agricultural germplasm resources), cultivate and expand the tcm agricultural industry, extend the industrial chain and improve the interest linkage mechanism (the demand will appear more urgent in the “post-poverty era”), to contribute to the common progress of all ethnic groups in the western region. references [1] [people’s daily] “traditional chinese medicine agricultural demonstration base” helps rural revitalization http://www.caas.cn/xwzx/mtbd/306211.html. [2] [people’s daily online] to develop “traditional chinese medicine agriculture”-taking the road of ecological agriculture with chinese characteristics http://yuqing.people.com.cn/n1/2017/0511/c21011729269394.html? [3] [xinhua news agency] economic information daily (economic information network) http://www.jjckb. cn/2018-02/12/c_1 36969567.htm? [4] [cppcc network] “traditional chinese medicine agriculture” helps china’s agricultural green development http://www.caas.cn/xwzx/mtbd/3019 45.html, etc. [5] zhang lijian, wang daolong, liu ruofan, exploration and practice of traditional chinese medicine agriculture. china agricultural science and technology publishing house, 2018. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.428 the nan yang academy of sciences (nass) is an international publisher of online, open access and scholarly peer-reviewed journals covering a wide range of academic disciplines including science, technology, medicine, engineering,education and social science. reflecting the latest research from a broad sweep of subjects, our content is accessible worldwide – both in print and online. nass aims to provide an analytics as well as platform for information exchange and discussion that help organizations and professionals in advancing society for the betterment of mankind. nass hopes to be indexed by well-known databases in order to expand its reach to the science community, and eventually grow to be a reputable publisher recognized by scholars and researchers around the world. about the publisher database inclusion china national knowledge infrastructure asia & pacific science citation index creative commons google scholar crossref mysciencework 24 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae dcd on mechanism of improving nitrogen utilization and application in production of slow-release fertilizers cheng sun* academician studio of the rural education development center, world academy of productivity science, beijing, 102600, china article info abstract article history received: 19 march 2020 revised: 26 march 2020 accepted: 24 april 2020 published online: 30 april 2020 this paper introduces the composition, properties and uses of dcd, the effect of dcd on various crop, summaries the fertilizer effect test of fertilizer nano slow release agent, analyzes the economic benefit analysis of fertilizer nano slow release agent. keywords: dcd mechanism slow-release fertilizer 　1. the composition, properties and uses of dcd dcd molecular formula is c2h4h4, structural for-mula is (nh2)2cncn, molecular weight is 84.08, white crystal, slightly bitter taste, non-volatile, non-moisture absorption. easily soluble in water, ethanol, acetone, liquid ammonia, ammonia water, etc. each 100ml of water (25℃ ) dissolves about 4g, 100ml ethanol dissolves about 1.7g, 100ml acetone dissolves about 0.7g,100ml of liquid ammonia dissolves about 4-8g. reaction with acid can generate guanidines, and reaction with alkali can generate melamine. dcd is an ideal nitrification inhibitor. it can effectively inhibit the formation of nitrate ammonia in the soil, inhibit the activity of nitrosating bacteria, and slow down or delay the oxidation of nh4 to no3. no3 can be directly absorbed and utilized by crops, but it is easily leached and produces denitrification, forming no2, causing environmental pollution. the test results show that the peak of nitrate nitrogen in nitrogen fertilizer without dcd was formed at 32 days, while the peak period of nitrate nitrogen in nitrogen fertilizer with dcd appeared at about 62 days, which was delayed by 30 days. dcd has an ammonia stabilizing effect. nitrogen fertilizer mainly has three forms, namely amide nitrogen, ammonium nitrogen and nitrate nitrogen. nh3 volatilization loss is common in farmland application. generally, the loss in paddy field accounts for more than 50% of the total nitrogen loss. nh3 volatilization loss accounts for more than 30% of the total nitrogen loss. this kind of volatilization loss shows different volatilization characteristics and different processes on different nitrogen fertilizer varieties. the volatilization loss of urea and ammonium sulfate occurs after a period of time with the soil. the initial volatilization of urea and ammonium sulfate into the farmland is much lower than that of ammonium bicarbonate. ammonium bicarbonate is directly decomposed due doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.165 *corresponding author: cheng sun, academician studio of the rural education development center, world academy of productivity science, beijing, 102600, china; e-mail: sc@nassg.org 25 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 to its active molecules, so the no3 concentration is high and the initial volatilization amount is large. dcd has a significant ammonia stabilizing effect. mix dcd into ammonium bicarbonate in proportion, and perform ammonia volatilization rate comparison experiment with ordinary ammonium bicarbonate at 43 ℃ to determine the volatilization of the two. when the volatilization reaches 1% residual amount it took 10 days for ammonium bicarbonate, 12 days for dcd ammonium bicarbonate, and the time was extended by 1.2 times; the volatilization loss was 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 days, and the daily reduction of the volatilization loss was 9, respectively. 12, 16, 14, 12, 9 percentage points. this ammonia stabilizing effect of dcd, the results of the indoor simulated cultivation experiment showed that it increased the effective nitrogen storage rate in the soil by 12.5%. according to practical research results, mixing dcd with urea and carbon into the soil can reduce the loss of ammonia nitrogen by 30%, and the amount of organic matter in the soil has doubled. the organic compound dcd is a nano material that can reduce the ph value of the soil by 0.2-0.4, thereby increasing the adsorption strength of soil colloids and clay particles to ammonia ions. the practical application of dcd has improved the utilization rate of chemical fertilizers and reduced the amount of chemical fertilizers applied. the amount of organic soil material in the soil has doubled, improved the soil aggregate structure, reduced the soil ph value, and has significant effects on soil ecological restoration effect. 2. the effect of dcd on various crops according to the shenyang agricultural technology extension station and the shenyang institute of ecology of the chinese academy of sciences, a systematic field experiment, demonstration and extension of dcd has been carried out in more than ten counties and districts in shenyang, and a large amount of scientific data has been obtained. the cumulative promotion area of peanuts, soybeans, vegetables and fruit trees has reached more than 2 million mu, which has achieved significant economic benefits and has been recognized by the majority of farmtable1. multi-point test results of slow-release urea applied to corn in 1998 process test location yield per mu(kg) to increase production rate（kg/mu） to increase production rate(%) economic benefits (yuan/mu) average yield increase (%) the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea+dcd xincheng area qingshuitai town sunongtun area chenxiangtun town dongling area gaokan town dongling area wangbin township donging area zhujia town kangping county liangjiazi farm yuhong area luojiatun township yuhong area laobian township faku town yuanzhong field xinchengzi area huangjia township 601 633 594 664 565 608 485 540 535 593 585 622 521 604 598 654 765 841 556 605 0 32 0 70 0 43 0 55 0 58 0 37 0 83 0 56 0 76 0 49 0 5.32 0 11.78 0 7.61 0 11.34 0 10.84 0 6.32 0 15.93 0 9.36 0 9.93 0 8.81 0 24.8 0 59.0 0 34.7 0 15.5 0 48.2 0 29.3 0 70.7 0 56.4 0 64.4 0 40.1 0 9.72 table 2. multi-point test results of slow-release urea in rice in 1998 process test location yield per mu(kg) to increase production rate(kg/mu) to increase production rate(%) economic benefits (yuan/mu) average yield increase(%) the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea +dcd yuhong area yuhongtai township faku country fengbeibao township faku country yiniubao township xinchengzi area shifuo town dongling area gucheng township 610 653 483 550 546 592 579 662 529 562 0 43 0 67 0 46 0 83 0 33 0 7.05 0 13.87 0 8.42 0 14.34 0 6.24 0 47.6 0 76.4 0 51.2 0 95.6 0 35.6 0 9.98 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.165 26 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 ers. the statistics of the test results are shown in table 1-5 below. table 1 the yield comparison test of basal application or top-dressing of dcd-containing slow-release urea and ordinary urea of corn crops showed that slow-release urea increased the yield by 5.32%-15.93% compared with ordinary urea, and the average yield rate was 9.72%, and the economic benefit per mu increased by 24.8 -70.7 yuan, with an average value of 46.28 yuan per mu. the rice yield measurement results in table 2 show that slow-release urea increases the grain yield by 33-83 kg per mu compared with ordinary urea, with an average increase of 54.4 kg; the increase rate is 6.24-14.34%. the average yield increase rate is 9.98%, and the average economic income per mu is 62.28 yuan. slow-release urea is applied as a one-time base fertilizer when rice seedlings are transplanted, which can eliminate the 4-5 top-dressing process. if weeding with pesticides, it can achieve no cultivating. the application of slow-release urea for peanuts has a higher yield increase, more than 2 knots per plant, 1g increase in 100-grain weight, the yield increased by 5 percentage points, the yield per acre increased by 64.5 kg, the yield increased by 23.98%, and the economic income per acre increased by 189.5 yuan. soybean application of slow-release urea has obvious yield increase benefits. from the performance of the plant, the number of seeds increased by 3-8, the weight of 100seed increased by 0.7-1.7g, the average yield per mu increased by 34 kg, the yield increase rate was 13.7%, and the economic benefit per mu increased by 67.33 yuan. the use of slow-release urea in fruit trees has a relatively high yield increase and economic benefits, with an average yield increase rate of 22.29%, increasing economic income by 467 yuan per mu; and slow-release urea can promote early ripening of fruits and increase fruit size due to the effect of dcd. in summary, the application of dcd on field crops, cash crops, and fruit trees has achieved stable yield and income increase benefits. the yield increase rate on field crops is 5.32%-15.93%, and the annual rate is 9.72%; the application increase rate on oil crops 10.50%-23.98%, with an average of 16.28%; the increase rate of application on fruit trees is 22.2%, all of which have obvious yield increase benefits. 3. summary of fertilizer effect test of fertilizer nano slow release agent “century tianwang” fertilizer nano slow-release agent is composed of natural minerals, nano-organic compound materials, and trace elements. it integrates urease inhibitable 3. experimental results of slow-release urea for peanut in liaozhong county in 1998 process number of pods(per) hundred grain weight(g) yield per mu(kg) increase production (kg/mu) rate of growth(%) economic benefit(yuan/mu) the urea the urea+dcd 11.0 13.0 18.0 19.0 269.0 333.5 0 64.5 0 23.98 0 189.5 table 4. multi-point test results of slow-release urea applied to soybean in 1998 process test location number of seeds(grain) hundred grain weight(g) yield per mu(kg) increase production (kg/mu) rate of growth(%) economic benefit(yuan/mu) the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea +dcd the urea the urea +dcd the average kaiyuan town agency farm seed company 28.8 31.8 43.9 48.5 52 60 18.1 18.8 16.9 17.8 21.2 22.9 157 180 256 297 362 400 0 23 0 41 0 38 34 0 14.65 0 16.02 0 10.50 13.72 0 46.3 0 81.8 0 73.9 67.33 table 5. application of slow-release urea on fruit trees in 1998 process test tree species yield per mu(kg) increase production (kg/mu) rate of growth(%) economic benefit(yuan/mu) the urea the urea +dcd big sand apricot tree 24 30 0 300 0 25.00 0 356 the urea the urea +dcd plum tree 32 39 0 350 0 21.88 0 556 the urea the urea +dcd hawthorn tree 20 24 0 240 0 20.00 0 428 the average 297 22.29 467 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.165 27 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 tion, nitrification inhibition, ammonia stabilization, and plant growth regulation. a kind of fertilizer additive with the comprehensive effect of function mechanism. it is also a natural bio-nano composition for soil ecological restoration and agricultural pollution control. its appearance is a white or dark brown powder, with good stability, not easy to volatilize and not deteriorate. it is mixed and used in a certain proportion with nitrogen fertilizers, which has strong adhesion and good affinity; fertilizer nano slow-release agents can also be added to compound fertilizers, in the formula of compound fertilizer production process, long-acting slow-release compound fertilizer and compound fertilizer are produced. the main functions of fertilizer nano slow-release agents are: (1) it can be used as a soil conditioner to promote the formation of soil aggregate structure and improve soil physical properties. (2) it can be used as a plant growth agent. the polyphenol structure in the molecule can be used as oxygen reduction. therefore, it strengthens the respiration of plants, promotes the absorption of nutrients by plants, promotes root growth, enhances crop resistance, and promotes early maturity increases crop yield and improves crop quality. (3) it can not only improve the utilization of n, p, k but also effectively inhibit the urease activity in the soil and act as a urease inhibitor. (4) it is also an ideal nitrification inhibitor. it can effectively inhibit the formation of nitrate-nitrogen in the soil, inhibit the activity of nitrosating bacteria, and slow down or delay the rate of oxidation of nh4 to no3. (5) has ammonia stabilizing effect. mixing slow-release agents with urea and carbon into the soil can reduce the loss of ammonia nitrogen by 30%, while the fixed amount of organic matter in the soil more than doubles. (6) the organic compound in the fertilizer nano slow release agent is a kind of nanomaterial, which can reduce the ph value in the soil, thereby increasing the adsorption strength of soil colloids and clay particles to ammonia ions. fertilizer nano slow-release agent is a new high-tech material for soil ecological restoration with dcd and natural humic acid as the main raw materials. the material is a new high-tech material for soil ecological restoration, which integrates urease inhibition, nitrification inhibition, ammonia stabilization, and plant growth stimulators. new type fertilizer slow release agent. multiple applications of variable nitrogen fertilizers are used as a base application. during the entire growth period of the crop, no topdressing can be used to extend the effective period of nitrogen fertilizer and increase the nitrogen utilization rate. according to the liaoning provincial soil station in 1997, 8 test points were arranged on corn and rice. the test results can be summarized as follows. 3.1 materials and methods (1) test materials：diammonium, urea, ammonium chloride, fertilizer slow release agent (2) test soil：paddy soil, brown soil, meadow soil (3) test crop：corn, rice (4) field trial design：set 4 treatments (the treatment changes or less than 4 treatments are also taken into consideration), each treatment is set to be repeated three times, arranged in random blocks, and the plot area is 20 square meters. 3.2 experimental effect of fertilizer nano slow-release agent on corn (1) test results in five sites in liujiahe, fengcheng city and xima, dengta city i. conventional fertilization (diammonium 10 kg/mu + urea 10 kg/mu) ii. conventional fertilization + slow release agent 0.6 kg/mu iii. urea 20 kg/mu + slow release agent 1.2 kg/mu analysis of test results from table 6 to table 7, it can be seen that the 2 and 3 places where the slow-release agent is applied. from table 6 to table 8, it can be seen that the growth and development of corn is significantly better than that of conventional fertilization in the 2 and 3 treatments of the table 6. investigation form of corn growth period experiment location process sowing period emergence period pull seedlings peroid tasseling period grouting period maturity peroid feng city i 4.24 5.9 6.18 7.22 8.10 9.20 liu jia he ii 4.24 5.5 6.17 7.21 8.9 9.19 iii 4.24 5.9 6.18 7.22 8.10 9.20 deng ta i 5.15 5.20 6.10 7.20 10.3 xi ma ii 5.15 5.20 6.10 7.19 10.2 iii 5.15 5.20 6.10 7.18 10.3 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.165 28 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 slow-release agent. the performance is the best. compared with other treatments, the maturity period is 1 day earlier, the leaf color is dark green, the empty stem rate is reduced, and the number of ears per mu and 100-grain weight are increased. in terms of output, treatments 2 and 3 increase the output by 21.4-34.4 kg compared with 1 and the increase rate is 4.0%-9.0%. (2) test results in zhen'an district, dandong city: test treatment: i conventional fertilization (diammonium 10 kg/mu + urea 10 kg/mu) ii conventional fertilization (diammonium 10 kg/mu + urea 20 kg/mu) iii conventional fertilization 1+slow release agent 0.6 kg/mu iv conventional fertilization 2+ slow release agent 1.2 kg/mu table 9. corn growth period, growth traits and yield survey table process sowing period emergence period feast tasseling period grouting period maturity growth period i ii iii iv 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.14 5.14 5.14 5.14 6.27 6.27 6.27 6.27 7.23 7.23 7.23 7.23 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 15 15 15 15 9 9 9 9 treatment/ fertility traits plant height/ cm leaf color ear rows the number of grains 100grain weight — ⅰ 208 green 16 570 27.4 — ⅱ 212 green 16 600 28.5 — ⅲ 217 dark green 16 620 29.9 — ⅳ 215 dark green 16 600 29.3 — processing item plot yield /123 average yield per mu/ kg yield increase per mu increased production rate project ⅰ 12.76 13.65 12.95 13.12 364.08 — ⅱ 13.74 14.22 15.13 14.36 398.49 34.11 ⅲ 16.86 14.6 15.28 15.58 432.62 68.54 ⅳ 15.56 14.6 14.18 14.78 410.15 46.07 it is obvious from the test results in table 9 that all the treatments using sustained-release agents: obviously there is no difference in growth period, but growth traits and yield are dominant, especially treatment iii. compared with conventional fertilization i, the plant height increases by 9 cm, the leaf color is dark green, the number of grains per ear increases by 50 grains, and the 100-grain weight increases by 2.5g. the output increased by 68.5 kg, an increase of 18.8%. from the perspective of the increase in yield, treatment iii (10 kg/mu of diammonium + 10 kg/mu of urea + 0.6 kg/mu of sustained-release agent) is better than iv (10 kg/mu of diammonium + 20 kg/mu of urea + sustained-release agent 1.2 kg/mu), indicating that too much nitrogen fertilizer should not be applied to the slow-release agent. it has obvious fertilizer table 7. investigation form of corn growth characters experiment location process plant height(cm) leaf color ears per mu （per） number of grains per spike（per） 100 grain weight feng city i 291 green 2364 498.0 37.0 liu jia he ii 294 dark green 2464 556.0 38.8 iii 292 dark green 2398 532.0 37.6 deng ta i 220 darker green 2623 634.2 32.1 xi ma ii 218 darker green 2634 634.4 33.3 iii 216 darker green 2628 636.1 34.0 experiment location process plant height(cm*cm) ear number per/m2 empty shot rate% ears per mu（per） number of grains per spike（per） 100grain weight(g) deng ta i 55*36.3 5.0 15.5 2824 645.8 32.1 wang jia ii 55*37.2 4.8 12.7 2818 622.0 33.3 iii 55*36.6 5.0 15.5 2807 632.1 34.0 table 8. corn production survey form test location i ii iii yield per mu yield per mu increase yield per mu increase rate yield per mu increase yield per mu increase rate fengcheng liujiahe 382.5 416.9 34.4 9.0 410.2 27.7 7.2 dengta xima 534.0 556.4 22.4 4.2 568.4 34.4 6.4 dengta wangjia 524.7 545.7 21.0 4.0 546.1 21.4 4.1 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.165 29 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 saving effect. a small amount of slow-release agent can play an ideal synergistic effect. 3.3 application effect of fertilizer nano slow-release agent on rice (1)test results in kaiyuan test site test treatment: i conventional fertilization（diammonium 10 kg/mu + ammonium chloride 25 kg/mu（ ii conventional fertilization i+ sustained release agent 1.0 kg/mu iii diammonium 10 kg/mu + urea 15 kg/mu iv diammonium 10 kg/mu + urea 15 kg/mu + sustained release agent 0.9 kg/ mu the test results and analysis are shown in table 10. it can be seen from table 10 that the application of slow-release agents does not affect the growth period of rice, but obviously promotes the growth and development of rice. compared with the control, the color of the two leaves is darkened, and the number of effective tillers, table 10. rice growth period, growth traits and yield survey table treatment \ childbearing period sowing period planting period rejuvenation period tillering stage jointing period heading date maturity ⅰ 4.9 5.25 5.31 6.8 7.11 8.9 10.2 ⅱ 4.9 5.25 5.31 6.8 7.11 8.9 10.2 ⅲ 4.9 5.25 5.31 6.8 7.11 8.9 10.2 ⅳ 4.9 5.25 5.31 6.8 7.11 8.9 10.2 treatment \ childbearing period plant height leaf color dispensing rate ears per mu number of grains per spike number of loam thousand grains ⅰ 100.1 green 85.5 274680.4 68.1 21.4 25.1 ⅱ 100.2 yellow 86.0 278680.6 68.9 24.5 25.6 ⅲ 100.5 green 85.1 273347.0 68.3 21.6 25.0 ⅳ 100.9 green 85.6 277347.2 68.0 23.2 25.9 yellow green treatment/ project plot yield/123 average/ kg yield per mu/kg yield increase per mu/kg increased production rate/% ⅰ 14.5 14.8 13.2 14.1 470.0 — — ⅱ 14.8 15.0 14.2 14.7 490.0 20.0 4.3 ⅲ 14.1 14.3 13.7 14.0 466.7 — — ⅳ 14.1 15.2 14.9 14.8 493.4 20.7 4.7 table 11. rice growth period, growth traits and yield survey table treatment\ growth period sowing period planting period rejuvenation period tillering stage jointing period heading date the mature stage ⅰ 4.8 5.25 5.31 6.5 6.18 8.3 9.24 ⅱ 4.8 5.25 5.31 6.5 6.18 8.5 9.24 ⅲ 4.8 5.25 5.31 6.5 6.18 8.6 9.24 ⅳ 4.8 5.25 5.31 6.5 6.18 8.7 9.24 treatment/ fertility traits plant height leaf color tillering stage(%) ears per mu(per) spike grain number pi grain number thousand grains ⅰ 102 light green 28.9 106.3 79.5 25.2 25.4 ⅱ 101 green 28.5 108.5 81.8 24.6 25.3 ⅲ 97 dark green 29.2 110.2 84.4 23.4 26.0 ⅳ 100 dark green 28.8 109.8 84.1 23.4 25.8 treatment/ project plot yield/123 average/ kg yield per mu/kg yield increase per mu/kg increased production rate/% ⅰ 15.6 16.0 15.8 15.8 526.9 0 0 ⅱ 16.5 16.6 16.8 16.6 553.6 26.7 5.1 ⅲ 17.0 17.1 16.8 17.0 565.8 38.9 7.4 ⅳ 16.8 17.6 16.9 16.9 563.6 36.7 7.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.165 30 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 ears per mu, grains per ear, thousand-grain weights all increased. in terms of the increase in output, the increase rates were 4.3% and 5.7%, respectively. (2) test results in haicheng test site test treatment: i conventional fertilization（diammonium 10 kg/mu + ammonium chloride 25 kg/mu） ⅱ conventional fertilization i+ sustained release agent 1.0 kg/mu ⅲ ammonium chloride 40 kg/mu + slow release agent 1.6 kg/mu ⅳ diammonium 10 kg/mu + urea 15 kg/ mu + sustained release agent 0.9 kg/mu see table 11 for test results and analysis from the test results in table 11, it can be seen that the slow-release agent has no effect on the growth period of rice, but it has an effect on the growth and yield of rice. the treatment with the slow-release agent has dark green leaf color, number of grains per ear, number of grains, thousand-grain weights were increased compared to the control, the empty rate also decreased, the yield rate increased by 5.1%, 7.4% and 7.0%, and the average yield rate was 6.5%. (3) test results in two sites in dashiqiao, yingkou test treatment ⅰ conventional fertilization（diammonium 10 kg/mu + ammonium chloride 15 kg/mu） ⅱ conventional fertilization i+ sustained release agent 1.0 kg/mu see table 12 for test results and analysis it can be seen from table 12 that the application of slow-release agents has no effect on the growth period of rice; however, it has a greater impact on the growth characteristics. compared with the control, the stem thickness, ear number per mu, grain number per ear, and 1000-grain weight all increase, an increase of 5.6%-10.6%, a thousand-grain weight increase of 0.1-0.5 grams, an increase of 79.8-113.5 kg per mu, an increase rate of 12.7%-19.6%, an average of 16.15%. 3.4 conclusion (1) simultaneous application of nitrogen fertilizer in corn base, combined with slow-release agent, can increase the utilization rate of nitrogen fertilizer. extend the effective period of nitrogen fertilizer. one-time basal application of nitrogen fertilizer without topdressing can achieve no defertilization during the whole growth period of corn, and the leaf color will be darkened to improve the fertility of corn the number of ears per mu, the number of ears per ear, and the weight of 100 kernels all increased. (2) compared with the control, the application of slow-release agent in rice has a darker leaf color, an increase in the number of effective tillers and the number of ears per ear, the number of grains per mu per ear increased by 0.7-19, and the thousand-grain weight increased by 0.1-0.9 grams. fat phenomenon. (3) apply a small amount of slow-release agent (usually table 12 rice growth period, growth traits and yield survey table test location planting period rejuvenation period tillering stage jointing period heading date maturity dashiqiao water source i 4.16 5.26 5.30 6.2 7.1 8.4 10.3 ii 4.16 5.26 5.30 6.2 7.1 8.4 10.9 dashiqiao water source i 4.14 6.2 6.6 6.9 7.2 8.7 10.9 ii 4．14 6.2 6.6 6.9 7.2 8.7 10.9 test location process plant height thick stem ears per mu spike number of loam(per) thousand grains(%) dashiqiao water source i 100.7 2.10 351611 1228 11,1 13.2 ii 99.7 2.25 409451 135.8 11.3 23.7 dashiqiao water source i 100.1 2.30 369515 110.4 10.1 20.2 ii 101.5 2,86 437885 116.6 11.5 20.3 treatment/project plot yield/123 yield per mu/kg yield increase per mu/kg increased production rate/% dashiqiao water source i 21.2 18.5 16.4 18.9 630.3 _ _ ii 21.7 21.2 409451 135.8 11.3 79.8 127 dashiqiao water source i 15.0 17.7 18.1 17.3 577.0 _ _ ii 20.2 22.4 19.4 20.7 690.5 113.5 19.6 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.165 31 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 0.6 kg/mu) to corn under normal fertilization conditions, and a good yield increase effect can be obtained, with an increase rate of 4.1%-18.8%. (4) under the conditions of normal application of nitrogen fertilizer, the application of slow-release agents will increase the yield of rice. the yield per mu can be increased by 20-113 kg, and the yield increase rate is 4.3%19.6%. (5) due to the severe drought and typhoon in liaoning in 1997, the test was affected to a certain extent. however, it can be seen from the test results that the application of slow-release agents can enhance the stress resistance of crops. 4. economic benefit analysis of fertilizer nano slow release agent in the process of experimental demonstration and popularization and application in the past few years, the cumulative application area of various field crops has reached more than 3 million mu, and fertilizer slow-release agents table 13. comparison table of application of slow-release nitrogen fertilizer to increase yield and income of several field crops crop varieties slow release nitrogen fertilizer ordinary nitrogen fertilizer increase production and income fertilizer amount kg/mu yield kg/mu fertilizer amount kg/mu yield kg/mu increase production kg/mu increased production rate % value added per mu urea + slow release agent urea corn 20 686.4 20 604.1 82.3 13.6 57.6 rice 25 731.8 25 666.8 65.0 9.8 65.0 wheat 10 249.5 10 227.0 22.5 9.9 27.0 soybeans 7 253.9 7 222.3 31.6 14.2 63.0 peanut 7 667.0 7 583.0 129.0 23.9 193.5 beet 25 3293.8 25 2792.6 501.2 17.9 160.4 have shown significant social and economic benefits. (references in this chapter: zhang zhiming, feng yuanqi and other materials on dcd’s mechanism and application effects) references [1] feng yuanqi. mechanism of long-acting nitrogen fertilizer and its application in slow-release compound fertilizer[j]. chemical fertilizer design, 2003(05):56-58. [2] zhong yi. nitrogen release characteristics of bag-controlled slow-release fertilizer and its application effect in leizhulin [d]. hangzhou: zhejiang agriculture and forestry university, 2018. [3] changhai zhang, guiping zhang, zhiguo chen. research on nitrogen fertilizer operation technology of super rice[j].agricultural science and technology,2014(6):100-103. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.165 1 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.353 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae gender roles and economic differentials in aquaculture of kainji lake basin, nigeria julius emeka omeje1*　anthonia ifeyinwa achike2　attahiru mohammed sule3　chukwuemeka john arene2 1. national institute for freshwater fisheries research new bussa, niger state nigeria 2. department of agricultural economics, university of nigeria, nsukka 3. division of socio-economics and extension, national institute for freshwater fisheries, nigeria article info abstract article history received: 23 april 2021 accepted: 27 may 2021 published online: 31 may 2021 the existing power differences among men, women and youths in aquaculture pre-empted the study on gender roles and economic differentials in aquaculture of kainji lake basin, nigeria. specifically, the study assessed sources of production resources, gender roles, cost and returns and existing gender gaps in aquaculture. using a survey design, a two-stage sampling procedure was used to select 81 males and 39 females from a population of 229 fish farmers. data were presented using descriptive statistics and analyzed with budgetary technique and gender gap ratios. key result shows that the men and youths had direct access to land through inheritance and purchase while the women (61%) accessed land through a family relation. the men and male youths performed majority of the gender roles involved in preparation of ponds, fingerlings stocking, fish management and post-harvest activities while the women and female youths were actively involved in fish management, liming and grading. economic indicators show that the men and youths have a higher return on investment than the women implying that such power differences still exist. hence, it is recommended that women should be organized in groups for empowerment. this will enable them utilize their collective strength through division of labour in fish farming. keywords: gender aquaculture catfish economic men women youths 　 1. introduction gender, a social construct which determines the roles of men, women and youths in a given society is highly relevant in the development of aquaculture in nigeria. this is because the men and women play key roles along the value chain. according to kumar, eagle and tucker (2018), the aquaculture sector is male dominated because of the capital intensive nature and the technologies associated with its development. however, the roles of women are observed in every link of the aquaculture value chain, notably in the processing and marketing of fish, fisheries resource management and policy decision making (lentisco & lee, 2015). in bangladesh for instance, women perform most of the routine operations such as fertilization of ponds and fish feeding as well as other day-to-to operations. in several cases, they harvest fish for family consumption with the help of their children while the husbands (men) only help when the water in the ponds is too deep, requiring more specialized gear to be used for fish harvesting (quddus, jui, rahman & rahman, 2017). in *corresponding author: julius emeka omeje; juliusomeje@gmail.com 2 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 nigeria, aguihe, sule & olowosegun (2013) reported that the men carry out almost all the processes in breeding and management of improved catfish in kainji lake basin while the women were only involved in feeding of fry’s/fingerlings. thus, implying that these gender roles vary across place, society and family settings. it is widely recognized that women’s engagement in aquaculture is numerous, significantly contributing to the overall well-being of household members; however, their contributions are not commensurate with the return they get because of deep-rooted gender disparities in social, cultural and economic spheres (harrisson, leitch & mcadam, 2016). gender in one way or the other, affects the distribution of labour, resources, wealth, decision-making, political power as well as the enjoyment of rights and entitlements within the family as well as in public life (paul & meena, 2016). according to kenya market-led aquaculture programme [kmap], (2016), women face stiffer constraints in access and use of production resources than their male counterparts who are heads of households. statistics shows a significant difference in gender access to production resources (ayodele, fasina & awoyemi, 2016). these uneven access to production resources and unequal distribution of return between men and women means that the development of aquaculture does not benefit the whole gender community as expected. on this note, kruijssen et al. (2018) proposed a gender perspective in value chain analysis to address the issue of gender differences in aquaculture and increase the output and benefits associated with the business. this involves the assessment of gender roles of men, women and youths, and how they inter-relate with each other; which provides the possibilities of counteracting constraints and gain the maximum benefits from the aquaculture business. gender issues in aquaculture needs to be addressed squarely through the exposure of women and youths to equal access to production resources like the men (gallant, 2019). addressing this gap is of particular relevance to the growth of aquaculture sub-sector which has become a significant economic sector. aquaculture is reported to have a notable economic potential to contribute to women’s economic and social empowerment as well as bring about gender equality and economic development (manyung-pasani, hara & chimatiro, 2017). although, ferrer, perez, roxas & avila (2014) reported that men and women complement each other in reproductive and productive roles; brugere & williams. (2017) noted that women tend to lose their control over economic activities as aquaculture production grows thereby making them lose out from the benefits from the aquaculture boom. the above observation informed the need for this study especially, the dearth in information on gender roles and economic differences of men, women and youths in aquaculture of kainji lake basin, nigeria. specifically, the study assessed the sources of production resources, examined gender roles and the perceptions of respondents to participation in fish culture, estimated the cost and returns of men, women and youths as well as the corresponding gender gaps in aquaculture of kainji lake basin nigeria. 2. methodology 2.1 study area the study was conducted in kainji lake basin, an area in the south of niger state and north of kebbi state, nigeria. the area is located between latitudes 90 50’ and 1055’ north and longitudes 40 23’ and 4051’ east (omeje, achike, arene, ifejika & ifeijika, 2020). the lake is divided into three strata; upper stratum, middle stratum and lower stratum. the upper and middle strata are dominated by fisher men (capture fisheries) while the lower stratum is dominated by fish farmers or aquaculture with catfish the most cultured fish species. there are about 362 fishing communities around the lake; whereas, capture fisheries and aquaculture is one of the major economic activities of the inhabitants around the lake. figure. map of kainji lake basin source: sule, olowosegun, sanni, landu and tanko, (2015) 2.2 sampling and data collection a two-stage sampling procedure was adopted in the selection of 120 (81 males and 39 females) respondents from a population of 229 table-size fish farmers. the doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.353 3 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 first stage involved the purposive selection of 20 communities based on the preponderance of fish farmers. the communities include; new bussa, yauri, rofia, kokoli, zamare, utonu, duga, t. gungawa, musawa, gafara, wawu, wara, monai, t. a. danbaba, malale, mahuta, t/na’ilo, shagunu, mashaya, and cover dam. the second stage involved the proportional selection of 20 fish farmers each from monai and new bussa, 15 from malale, 10 each from shagunu and kokoli and three each from yauri, rofia, mahuta, zamare, utonu, duga, mashaya, t. gungawa, gafara, wawu, wara, t. a. danbaba, musawa, t/na’ilo and cover dam, making a total of 120 table-size fish farmers. the sample frame used for the selection was retrieved from registered members of the fish farmer’s association in the area. data were sex-disaggregated and categorized into 3 major groups. the first and second groups were the men and women who were males or females above 35 years of age while the third group comprise of the youths who were male and female below 35 years of age. 2.3 data analysis and model specification data were presented using descriptive statistics such as mean, percentage, likert-type scale and pie charts. also, data were analyzed using budgetary technique and gender gap ratio analysis as adopted by (maltschnig, pailer, sirlinger & waltner, 2015). the models are specified as thus; 2.4 profitability indices net income after tax (niat) niat= revenue-total expenses 1 net profit margin net profit margin= profit after tax revenue *100 2 where: revenue=unit price* quantity supplied cost of goods sold=cost of processing fish in a month return on investment return on investment = net income after tax total expenses *100 3 2.5 gender gap analysis these are indicators that correlate two reference values through a simple calculation rule. instead of just showing information on gender, it is possible, by calculating gender-specific ratios, to highlight differences between men, women and youths more clearly, thus making gender-sensitive statistics more informative (maltschnig, pailer, sirlinger & waltner, 2015). key ratios include gender gaps (absolute gender gap and relative gender gap) and gender ratios. absolute gender gap =differences in values for men, women and youths in absolute terms relative gender gap= ( 1) bi ai − *100 gender ratio= bi ai where; ai=values for men, women and youths bi=values for men, women and youths 3. results and discussion 3.1 socio-economic characteristics of fish farmers the result on socio-economic characteristics of the fish farmers is presented in table 1. the results show that majority of the men (54.74 %) and women (56.12 %) were within the age bracket of 41-50 years while majority (76.82 %) of the youths were within the age bracket of 21-30 years. this shows that majority of the farmers were still in their economic active age which corresponds to the finding of akarue and aregbor (2015) that majority (74.72 %) of fish farmers in delta state were within the age bracket of 21-40 years. this indicates how lucrative fish farming is in the area which has become attractive to “young aged” actors as reported by ifejika et al. (2015). furthermore, majorities 92.12 %, 100 % and 74.67 % of the men, women and youths respectively, were married while the mean years of experience was 8.90, 5.00, 4.86 respectively. this result corresponds to the result of ukpe, audu, djomo & akise (2017) who reported that 60% of fish farmers in taraba state had experience of 6-10 years. this is a good sign in the fish farming value chain as the result shows that the fish farmers have a good number of years of experience in managing risks and others shocks that can possibly affect the business. finally, findings show that the men (49.64 %), women (44.21 %) and youths (67.99 %) had tertiary educational qualification. a high literacy level in fish farming have been established to enhance the management of fish farms through the adoption of improved farm practices (ogunmefun & achike, 2017). the high literacy level in the area could be attributed to the presence of higher academic and research institutions such as federal college of freshwater fisheries technology, federal college of wildlife management and niffr. hence, graduates and trainees from these institutions must have put their knowledge into practice. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.353 4 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 table 1. socio-economic characteristics of fish farmers men (n=64) women (n=10) youths (n=46) percent mean percent mean percent mean age 21-30 31-40 41-50 >50 marital status married single experience 1-5 6-10 11-15 >15 level of education primary secondary tertiary 0.00 32.31 54.74 12.95 92.12 7.88 23.47 59.31 12.09 5.13 21.43 28.93 49.64 44.56 8.90 0.00 36.49 56.12 7.39 100.00 0.00 65.32 29.73 4.95 0.00 26.58 29.21 44.21 42.90 5.00 76.82 23.18 0.00 0.00 74.67 25.33 66.84 31.52 1.64 0.00 11.67 20.34 67.99 29.89 4.86 source: field survey, 2020 3.2 sources of finance and production resources the information on the various sources of finance for the men, women and youths (figure 1-3) shows that the men (59 %) and youths (63 %) used personal savings to finance their fish farming business while majority (70 %) of the women financed their fish farming business through the help of a family relation or friend. this shows the level of dependence of women on their spouses and family relations in financing their economic enterprise such as fish farming. furthermore, this indicates the poor level of accessibility to formal credit institutions by the men, women and youths in the area. thus, necessitating the need for the fish farmers to explore existing agricultural credit schemes such as the agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund (acgsf) as reported by omeje, nwabeze, ifejika, faleke & jimmy (2018) as well as the anchor borrower programme of the central bank of nigeria. this is because formal credit has shown to impact positively on outputs of agricultural commodities (chandio, yuansheng, sahito & larik, 2016). however, the utilization of this formal source of finance depends on the ease of access. as indicated in table 2, the men, women and youths indicated that it is difficult (>1.5) to access credit from commercial banks, money lenders and cooperative societies. however, the men and youths indicated that it is easy (<1.5) to access funding from family and friends while the women on the other hand, indicated that it is difficult to access fund from family and friends even though it was their major source of finance. this suggests that the women have to lobby or persuade their spouse and family relations to release fund for investment in fish farming. bank loan 2% cooperativ e society 6% family & friends 31% money lenders 2% self finance 59% men figure 1 family & friends 70% self finance 30% w o m e n figure 2 bank loan 2% cooperative society 11% family & friends 22% money lenders 2% self finance 63% youths figure 3 figure 1-3. sources of finance used in fish farming table 2. ease of access to loan source men women youths bank loan money lenders cooperative societies family and friends 2.29 1.91 1.85 1.31 2.00 1.70 1.70 1.60 2.10 2.02 1.78 1.39 source: field survey, 2020 note: <1.5=easily, >1.5 difficult furthermore, result in figure 4-6 shows that the men doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.353 5 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 (37 %) and the youths (38 %) use lands that were acquired through inheritance and purchase respectively, while majority (61 %) of the women use lands belonging to a family relation (their spouses). in nigeria, it is reported that less than 16 % of women have explicit land rights and ownership (faostat, 2020). moreover, fao (2011) reported that closing gender gap in land holdings will require a holistic approach through land reforms, strategies, policies and legislation within existing socio-cultural norms. this is because most traditional institutions favour men than women in land allocations. in most cases, women have access to land through their relationships with a relative or through marriage where they use lands belonging to their husbands. another impeding factor to women’s land ownership especially in northern nigeria like the kainji lake basin is the practice of purdar system (women seclusion). the systems impede women from engaging in direct or highly labourious agricultural activity because of the religious belief system. thus, the men tend to participate in activities such as outdoor fish farming and other labourious agricultural activities (gambo, zahran & sidahmed, 2016); thereby placing them at an advantage over women in land ownership. lease 11% purchase 34% inherited 37% relation 18% men figure 4 lease 14% purchase 25% relation 61% women figure 5 lease 21% purchase 38% inherited 29% relation 12% youths figure 6 figure 4-6. access to land used for pond construction 3.3 gender roles in table-size fish farming the results for gender roles in fish farming is presented in table 3. from the table, the roles of pond digging/ construction of dykes were carried out by the men and male youths. more so, the male youths and men dominate in fingerling stocking and liming of ponds with ash. in pond management, the men, women and youths were actively involved in fish feeding, fish sampling and environmental cleaning. the role of women in post-harvest was limited to fish grading after harvest while the men and the male youths perform the functions of net preparation, fish harvest (dragging), grading and weighing. from the result, one can see that the women and female youths contribute to activities that are “light” in nature, while the men and male youths perform heavy tasks which require strength or vigor. this shows a key gender differences in division of labour as reported by sexsmith (2017). this is because some roles may not fit well with women physique especially when their feminine nature is put into consideration. this gendered differences observed in the production chain could lead to an unequitable distribution of benefits among men, women and youths as reported by farnworth sultana, kantor & choudhury (2015). this is because an entrepreneur will most likely pay higher remuneration to individuals who perform greater tasks such as; pond digging/construction of dykes and harvesting than those individuals performing lesser/light functions such as; feeding and environmental cleaning. this gives credence to jahan et al. (2015) survey in bangladesh who reported that women accept lower pay than men because they are short of alternatives. for this reason, unless other alternatives such as automation of the fish production process is adopted, the roles of women and female youths in fish farming value chain activities will continue to be limited to the functions observed in the study. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.353 6 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 table 3. gender roles in table-size fish farming men women youths preparation of ponds/ construction of dykes digging of ponds, draining of water and filling of bags with sands for dykes male youths dig ponds, drain water and fill bags with sands for dykes fish stocking and liming fingerlings stocking and liming of ponds with ash liming of ponds with ash male youths stock ponds with fingerlings while both male and female youths lime ponds with ash fish management fish feeding, fish sampling and environmental cleaning fish feeding, fish sampling and environmental cleaning male and female youths feed fish and clean the farm environment while male youths drag ponds with nets for fish samplings fish harvest and post-harvest activities preparation of nets, dragging of fish, grading and weighing grading male youths prepare nets, drag and weigh fish while both male and female youths grade fish after harvest source: field survey, 2020 3.4 perception on gender participation in table size fish farming activities the perception of table-size fish farmers on gender participation in is presented in table 4. from the result of the analysis, the actors in the production chain indicated that most of the value chain activities require one with masculine disposition which ranked first with the mean (=3.21). priority given to masculinity is linked to the manual operation of the activities in the production chain, hence, this perception seems plausible since the roles played by women in table-size fish farming were those that can be classified as “light burden” functions. morgan et al. (2015) reported that existing techniques employed in fish farming are not acceptable for women because of perceptions that roles associated in the use of such techniques are not gender sensitive. this is because the techniques employed to execute activities such as; pond digging, harvesting and weighing requires one with masculine disposition. the men and the male youths who possess such physical characteristics tend to participate more in this value chain. also, the result show that women were perceived not to have access to land required for participation in table-size fish farming (=2.65). this finding agrees with existing norm in the african tradition, that men have greater advantage and financial position to acquire land (mabundza, dlamini & nkambule, 2014). this is due to the advantages accorded to men by the local tradition and ancestral inheritance system which makes them have greater influence in decision making within the household and communities. the women may have access to land; however, their degree of access may differ with that of the men. therefore, women need empowerment (policy, finance, advocacy) to enable them have increased access to land for fish farming. thirdly, the result show that the actors in the production chain perceive that the skills involved are exclusively designed to the interest of men and youths (=2.53), and that table-size fish farming is capital intensive (=2.53). the importance of capital in table-size fish farming is quite enormous to meet the high operating cost associated with feeding and other requirements of the fish for at least six months of which most women do not have such financial strength to meet these demands. table 4. perceptions of respondents on participation in table-size fish farming s/ n perceptions mean rank inference 1. 2. 3. 4. the skills involved are exclusively designed to the interest of men and youths most of the value chain activities requires one with masculine disposition the value chain is capital intensive women don’t have access to land required for participation in this value chain 2.53 3.21 2.53 2.65 3rd 1st 3rd 2nd agree agree agree agree source: field survey, 2020 3.5 estimation of cost and returns and gender gaps in aquaculture the result of the analysis of value of fixed assets, revenue and gender based employment for the men, women and youths in table-size fish farming is presented in table 5.1. the result of the analysis shows that the youths were the highest with about n 2,088,667.9 worth of fixed assets followed by the men who had about n 1,889,516.52 worth of fixed assets while the women were the least with about n 1,264,221.42 worth of fixed assets. the amount is used in purchasing or installing fixed items such as land, construction of ponds, piping and accessories, pumping machine, borehole and other fixed assets such as nets, taps etc. the results imply that the men and youths have a higher value of fixed assets than the women probably because they have more investment on the number and sizes of ponds, fish stocked as well as access to capital than the women. this is supported by ayodele et al. (2016) that there is significant difference in men and women access to production resources such as land, finance etc. this is because the men and youths had larger productive assets such as land used for large scale ponds for production than the women. on revenue, the result shows that the men receive about n 14,913,538.4 as revenue per year, the women earn about n 3,176,647.2 as revenue per year and the doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.353 7 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 youths earn about n 9,972,308.1 as revenue per year. the difference in the revenue received by the men, women and youths could be largely attributed to the number of factors such as; number of ponds stocked with fish, quantity of fish harvested from ponds and market price of fish. information on gender based employees established that an average of 2.18 men and 2.73 youths were employed by the men involved in fish farming, while 1.3 men and 2.50 youths were employed by the women and 1.89 men and 2.90 youths were employed the youths in table-size fish farming enterprise in the area. surprisingly, findings show that there is no woman employed in the table-size fish farming as paid labour, but that does not mean that women do not participate in the production chain as the study has established the roles of women in production chain especially in fish feeding and environmental cleaning (tafida, nwabeze & ayanda, 2011). hence, women could be perceived to contribute as unpaid family labour in the table-size fish production chain in kainji lake basin. the cost and returns in table size fish farming is presented in table 5.2. from the result of the analysis, the net-income for the men was n 6233509.91 with 41.80% net profit margin while the women realize about n 1073576.33 net-income with 33.80% profit margin whereas, the net-income for the youths was n 5206967.07 table 5.1. information on value of fixed assets, revenue and employment in table-size fish farming men women youths item mn mup (n) tp (n) mn mup (n) tp (n) mn mup (n) tp (n) fixed assets cost of land ponds borehole pumping machine piping other assets total revenue a) no. of cycles/yr b) kg/pond c) price/kg revenue/year =a*b*c* mn ponds employment men women youths 1.00 6.62 1.39 1.00 1.00 1.84 1941.93 2.18 0.00 2.73 833548.38 27354.83 439534.88 139732.14 124193.55 1564363.78 630.48 wage/m 12269.23 0.00 9654.54 833548.38 181088.97 610953.48 139732.14 124193.55 1889516.52 14913538.4 tw/m 26746.92 0.00 26356.89 1.00 1.70 1.14 1.00 1.00 1.80 1640.00 1.33 0.00 2.50 450000.00 24500.00 478571.42 149000.00 78000.00 1180071.42 633.00 wage/m 14000.00 0.00 10625.00 450000.00 41650.00 545571.42 149000.00 78000.00 1264221.42 3176647.2 tw/m 18620.00 0.00 26562.5 1.00 4.46 1.29 1.00 1.00 1.83 1930.43 1.89 0.00 2.90 1077391.30 34586.96 481081.08 138902.43 97521.74 1829483.51 632.93 wage/m 11888.89 0.00 9804.87 1077391.30 154257.84 620594.59 138902.43 97521.74 2088667.9 9972308.1 tw/m 22470.00 0.00 28434.12 source: computation from field survey, 2020 note: mn=mean number; mup=mean unit price/cost; tp=total price/cost; tw/m=total wage per month; qty=quantity table 5.2. cost and returns in table-size fish farming per two cycles in a year items men (n) women (n) youths (n) revenue from sales expenses cost of feed fertilizer/cow dungs salt/ash electricity bill/year depreciation fueling transport levies labour total net income=revenue-expenses net profit margin return on investment benefit cost ratio (bcr) 14913538.4 6986065.57 9089.52 2579.06 37786.77 40052.03 124327.13 89633.33 24823.15 637245.70 8680028.49 6233509.91 41.80% 71.81% 1.72 3176647.2 1260800.00 2660.00 2063.16 28500.00 31312.25 32476.68 59623.35 16845.43 542190.00 2103070.87 1073576.33 33.80% 51.05% 1.51 9972308.1 3511282.61 5089.13 2361.11 35503.44 40151.03 53763.24 61573.44 18245.89 610849.40 4765341.03 5206967.07 52.21% 109.27% 2.09 source: computation from field survey, 2020 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.353 8 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 with 52.21 % profit margin. this shows that the men and youths earn more than the women in table-size fish farming largely due to the numbers ponds stocked with fish by the men, women and youths and partly due to the level of technical know-how. moreover, it indicates that fish farming is a lucrative enterprise as supported by omobepade et al. (2015) and adeosun et al. (2019) that aquaculture is a viable business. this is because the return on investment was 71.81%, 51.05% and 109.27% for the men, women and youths respectively implying that to every n 1 invested in table-size fish farming, about 77.38 kobo (average value) will be realized as profit ceteris paribus. the gender gap ratio of table-size fish farmers (table 5.3) shows that the ratio in terms of the value of fixed assets between the men and women was 0.67, the ratio between the men and youths was 0.90 and the ratio between the women and youths was 0.61. this indicates that the difference in the value of fixed assets between the men and women as well as between the women and youths is quite larger than the difference in value of fixed assets between the men and youths. however, in terms of revenue, the ratio between the men and women was 0.21, the ratio between the men and youths was 0.67 and the ratio between the women and youths was 0.38. this means that there is unequal revenue generated by the men, women and youths which is as largely due to the number of ponds used in fish farming. also, it implies that there is gross inequality in the revenue realized between the men, women and youths in table-size fish farming. the ratio for employees between the men and youths was 0.31 which indicates the extent of inequality in terms of number of paid labour in table-size fish farming in the area. more so, the results show that the ratio between men and youths in terms of wage paid was 0.79 which means that there is no great inequality in the amount paid to men and youths employed in table-size fish farming in the area. from the result of the ratio analysis, it is obvious that there is an existing gender-based power differences in aquaculture which has been the major issue with gender (paul & meena, 2016). most importantly, access and use of production resources is key to high productivity and profits. however, unequal access to these resources by men, women and youths in aquaculture will definitely lead to variations in outputs and profits. generally, gender differences in access to agricultural production resources have been a very serious concern in many developing countries around the world (oladosu, afolabi & buhari, 2018). this calls for empowerment in aquaculture by ngos, governments and other funding agencies to effectively target the vulnerable groups (women and youths) in their interventions for aquaculture development in nigeria. 4. conclusion and recommendations the study established that men and youths used personal savings to invest in aquaculture as well as acquired land used for pond construction through purchase or inheritance while family relations were instrumental in financing women in fish farming. majority of the roles in aquaculture were performed by the men and male youths while the women were actively involved in fish management. also, the net-income realized from aquaculture shows that the men receive a higher net-income than the women and youths due to the higher level of investment in aquaculture by the men. based on the findings of the study, it is recommended that women should be organized in groups for empowerment. this will enable them utilize table 5.3. gender gaps in table-size fish farming indicators absolute gender gap relative gender gap (%) gender gap ratio value of fixed assets men & women men & youths women & youths revenue men & women men & youths women & youths employees men & women men & youths women & youths wage men & women men & youths women & youths 625,295 199,151 824,446 11,736,891 4,941,230 6,795,661 1.80 0.90 2.71 0.00 2691.24 0.00 49.46 10.54 65.21 369.47 49.55 213.93 0.00 50.56 0.00 0.00 26.84 0.00 0.67 0.90 0.61 0.21 0.67 0.38 0.00 0.66 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.00 source: computation from field survey, 2020 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.353 9 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 02 | june 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 their collective strength through division of labour in fish farming. acknowledgment this study received its financial support from the research and technical division of national institute for freshwater fisheries research, new bussa niger state, nigeria. also, the technical contribution of agricultural development programmes (adps), new bussa unit in identifying and ensuring that all ethical procedures were dully considered before data were collected is hereby recognized. ethical aspects the study ensured that all necessary ethical aspects were considered before data collection. the instruments for data collection were thoroughly vetted by experts from the division of socio-economic and extension services, national institute for freshwater fisheries research. also, clearance for data collection was granted by the state department of agricultural development programme (adp). prior to data collection, the adp extension agents sensitized the respondents on the purpose of the research by 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(2017). economics of catfish farming in selected local government areas of taraba state, nigeria. innovative techniques in agriculture, 2.3(2017), 376–382. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i2.353 72 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2022 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.803 received: 23 december 2022; accepted: 27 december 2022; published: 31 december 2022 citation: sun, c., 2022. agriculture economic overview. research on world agricultural economy. 3(4), 803. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.803 *corresponding author: cheng sun, world academy of productivity science (waps), beijing, china; email: 1225zkl@sohu.com editorial agriculture economic overview cheng sun* world academy of productivity science (waps), beijing, china agriculture is vital to economic growth: it accounts for 4% of global gross domestic product (gdp) and in some least developed countries can account for more than 25% of gdp. by 1890, the world agricultural economy had taken shape, accompanied by complex changes in patterns of labour mobility, capital flows, ecology and technology. food no longer came from nearby villages or towns, but from thousands of miles away. the last 50-100 years have seen dramatic changes in agricultural production and productivity, driven in large part by public and private investment in agricultural research, with a profound impact on the world’s poor in particular [1]. in this issue, we begin by discussing the further development of agriculture in europe, under conditions of postwar recovery like in ukraine [2]. in particular, the integration of the agricultural sector into the global economic space. then, in the next three articles we analyse the problems in the agricultural development of the african country ethiopia, such as one of the main obstacles to livestock production in south omo—the lack of information on the state of production and commercialisation of improved panicum grass [3]; the essential role of rural women in agricultural activities to reduce poverty and food insecurity. the research focused on gender equity in rural women’s access to and control over agricultural and rural household resources [4]; as well as the cattle market transport facilities, legal cattle market promotion centres, credit facilities, and cattle feeding and health improvement strategies [5]; and on the value chain of macadamia nuts (macadamia integrifolia) technical efficiency among the small-scale farmers in zimbabwe in the article by dr. wellington bandason et al. [6]. finally, accelerating climate change could further cut crop yields, especially in the world’s most food-insecure regions, therefore, an article by dr. ganesh raj joshi and dr. ramchandra bhandari assesses perceptions of climate change in the asian country nepal and identifies factors influencing the adoption of complementary irrigation practices [7]. covid-19 had some impact on the development of the world agricultural economy and food security. the main effect of the pandemic was to exacerbate the existing dehttp://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.803 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.803 mailto:1225zkl@sohu.com 73 research on world agricultural economy | volume 03 | issue 04 | december 2022 clining trend in food security. food insecurity increases considerably in countries in asia through income shocks rather than prices effects [8]. conflict of interest there is no conflict of interest. references [1] alston, j.m., pardey, p.g., 2014. agriculture in the global economy. journal of economic perspectives. 28(1), 121-146. [2] shubravska, o., prokopenko, k., 2022. the agricultural sector of ukraine in the global food market: pre-war state and post-war prospects. research on world agricultural economy. 3(4), 693. doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.693 [3] hidosa, d., adicha, a., sultan, m., 2022. production and commercialization status of improved panicum grass cultivation in the lowland livestock production system of south omo south-western ethiopia. research on world agricultural economy. 3(4), 694. doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.694 [4] bandason, w., parwada, c., mushunje, a., 2022. macadamia nuts (macadamia intergrifolia) value chain and technical efficiency among the small-scale farmers in zimbabwe. research on world agricultural economy. 3(4), 700. doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.700 [5] tigabie, a., teferra, b., abe, a., 2022. access and control of resources by rural women in north shewa zone, amhara region, ethiopia. research on world agricultural economy. 3(4), 751. doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.751 [6] adane, z., hidosa, d., 2022. cattle marketing system in bena-tsemay district of south omo, southwestern ethiopia. research on world agricultural economy. 3(4), 758. doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.758 [7] joshi1, g.r., bhandari, r., 2022. climate adaptation in rain-fed agriculture: analyzing the determinants of supplemental irrigation practices in nepal. research on world agricultural economy. 3(4), 761. doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.761 [8] beghin, j., meade, b., rosen, s., 2017. a food demand framework for international food security assessment. journal of policy modeling. 39, 827-842. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2017.06.001 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.693. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.694. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.700 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.751. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.758 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.761. 17 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae why are crops prone to show symptoms of calcium deficiency in abnormal weather mingzao liang*　shuxiang zhang institute of agricultural resources and agricultural regional planning, chinese academy of agricultural sciences, beijing, 100081, china article info abstract article history received: 19 march 2020 revised: 26 march 2020 accepted: 24 april 2020 published online: 30 april 2020 calcium is an essential element for crops and requires a large amount. the calcium absorbed by plants plays a variety of roles in their bodies, such as promoting the development of cell walls, reducing the extravasation of nutrients in the body, inhibiting the infection of pathogens, and improving the resistance of plants. disease, eliminate the harm of excessive organic acids in the body, and promote various metabolic processes in the body. once the crop is deficient in calcium, its metabolism in the body will be blocked, and various symptoms of calcium deficiency will occur. the paper introduces the symptoms of crop calcium deficiency and preventive measures. keywords: crops prone calcium deficiency abnormal weather 　 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.164 *corresponding author: mingzao liang, institute of agricultural resources and agricultural regional planning, chinese academy of agricultural sciences, beijing, 100081, china; e-mail: lmz@nassg.org 1. why are crops deficient in calcium under abnormal weather in recent years? in recent years, there are more abnormal weather. experts estimate that from now on to the end of this century, abnormal weather caused by global climate change will occur frequently. for agriculture, in the next few decades, favorable weather will become scarce, and abnormal weather will become normal. how to deal with the increasingly normalized abnormal weather will become a topic of common concern to the agricultural circles. it has been found that in recent years, under the abnormal weather such as low temperature and cold injury in spring and high temperature and rainy in summer, many crops show symptoms of calcium deficiency, which is common in field crops, fruit trees and vegetables. in 2018, bitter pox caused by calcium deficiency appeared on the surface of apple bags just after picking (figure 1). figure 1. bitter pox caused by calcium deficiency appeared on the surface of apple bags in may 2020, the core leaves of cucumber in greenhouse in shandong province showed cup-shaped calcium deficiency (figure 2). 18 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.164 figure 2. core leaves of cucumber in greenhouse in shandong province showed cup-shaped calcium deficiency in 2020, during the period from booting to maturity, the core leaf of winter wheat in henan province will be generally shrunken and curly (figure 3). figure 3. core leaf of winter wheat in henan province will be generally shrunken and curly 1.1 causes and manifestations of calcium deficiency in crops calcium is an essential medium nutrient element for plants. at present, calcium deficiency is very common in crops in china. the reasons of crop calcium deficiency are as follows: 1) the soil is short of calcium. calcium deficiency is common in sandy soil and southern red soil (acid soil). 2)since calcium is transported in plants along with transpiration, the transpiration intensity of fruit trees and vegetables, fruits and vegetables and leafy vegetables is much lower than that of leaves, and the competition for calcium is much smaller than that of leaves. sometimes it even happens that the calcium in the fruit flows back into the leaves, and the calcium cannot move and be used again in the plant. calcium deficiency causes the apical buds and the root tips not to develop, showing symptoms of “broken neck”. the young leaves are chlorosis, deformed, and hook-shaped. when calcium deficiency is severe, the growth points are necrotic and the leaf tips and growth points are pectin-like. roots often turn black and rot when calcium deficiency occurs. generally, fruits and storage organs have very poor calcium supply capacity. fruits and vegetables are often judged as calcium deficiency due to deformation of storage tissues. the young leaves of cereal crops are curled and dry, and the inter-leaf and leaf margins of the functional leaves are withered. the plant declines before it gets old. less sturdiness, more scabs. in production, a large amount of high-concentration quick-acting phosphorus and potassium fertilizers are used so that form an antagonism to calcium[2] (figure4-6). the young leaves of wheat were curled and withered due to calcium deficiency, and the functional leaves were wilted. the plants are old before they are old. it has less fruit and more grains. the most obvious characteristic of calcium deficiency in wheat is that the root tips secrete spherical transparent mucus (figure 4). figure 4. calcium deficiency in wheat rice leaves with calcium deficiency have white markings on the leaf margins, often jagged and irregular lateral cracking, and the top leaf rolls are bent downward in a “bow” shape. adjacent leaves are often sticky and cannot be extended normally (figure 5). figure 5. calcium deficiency in rice the young organs of corn are first affected when calcium is insufficient, the growth point is damaged, and the heart leaves wither and die; soon after the new roots grow out, they will die and collapse (figure 6). 19 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.164 figure 6. calcium deficiency in corn a light green band appeared on the leaf margin of the young leaflets of the early terminal buds, and later necrosis caused the leaflets to shrink or twist. in severe cases, the terminal buds or axillary buds died. the roots are prone to necrosis, the tubers are small, there are malformed clusters of small tubers, and there are necrotic spots in the tuber of the tuber (figure 7). figure 7. calcium deficiency in potato the symptoms of calcium deficiency in cauliflower are as follows: the plant is short, the meristem of stem and root tip is damaged, the growth and development of the top leaf is blocked and deformed, and light brown spots occur; the vein of leaf turns yellow and begins to wither from the upper leaf; the obvious period of symptoms is that after the cauliflower begins to nodulate, the leaf tip and leaf edge of the bulblet turn over, the leaf edge gradually withers and turns yellow, and the leaf edge is withered and necrotic (figure 8). figure 8. calcium deficiency in cauliflower calcium in plants is easy to form insoluble calcium salt precipitation and fixation, so it cannot be moved and reused. the growth point of cotton with calcium deficiency was restrained, and it was in the shape of crooked hook. when it was serious, the upper leaves and petioles of some old leaves drooped and festered (figure 9). figure 9. calcium deficiency in cotton after calcium deficiency, the whole plant is relatively short, with small branches and drooping leaves. the yellow edge of the top leaf will appear at the beginning, and in serious cases, it will die completely. gradually, the middle leaves appeared rhubarb and necrotic. during fruit growth, calcium deficiency will crack fruit and abnormal coloring. there are brown fruit, green back fruit. these symptoms caused by calcium deficiency are also called umbilical rot (figure 10). figure 10. calcium deficiency in tomatoes peanut is short of calcium, the plant grows slowly, the root is thin, the seedling is weak, the edge and surface of the old leaves will appear irregular white spots, the petiole becomes weak, the new leaf is small, the single kernel fruit, the withered fruit and the empty fruit increase obviously, which affects the peanut yield (figure 11). figure 11. calcium deficiency in peanut 20 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.164 cauliflower calcium deficiency, young leaf margin dry inside roll(figure 12). figure 12. calcium deficiency in cauliflower the apex of the inflorescence is curved and the growing point is damaged until necrosis, show "cut neck" symptom. apical and apical growth stagnated (figure 13). figure 13. calcium deficiency in rapeseed calcium deficiency in citrus, new leaf tip scorched, leaf curl (figure 14). figure 14. calcium deficiency in citrus calcium deficiency of soybean new leaves do not stretch, old leaves gray white spots. leaf veins brown. the handle is soft and pendent. the roots are dark brown, fragile, and thick, with petiole and leaf blade. dark brown in place, when serious, the stalk apex curl is hook shaped dead (figure 15). figure 15. calcium deficiency in soybean calcium content in the skin and pulp tissues of peach calcium-deficient fruit is softened in the suture line low. lack of calcium leaves of peach leaf spot withered, calcium fruit easy to appear soft rot (figure 16). figure 16. calcium deficiency in peach 1.2 analysis of the causes of calcium deficiency in crops most producers still don’t know that calcium is an element needed by both soil and crops. the demand for calcium in crops is 2.5 times that of phosphorus. calcium is a bridging substance between soil organic colloids and inorganic colloids, which together form aggregates with other divalent cations. they don’t know that the absorption of calcium by crops is very difficult. it needs to be absorbed by the root tip and pulled by transpiration. under abnormal weather, crop transpiration is affected, and the absorption of calcium by crops is prone to obstacles. not to mention that calcium is the total regulator of plant cell metabolism. calcium can stabilize cell membranes against free radical attacks caused by abiotic stress. calcium ultimately affects the formation of grains. after more than 40 years of continuous chemical agriculture, the soil calcium reserves and soil calcium used in production can no longer meet the needs of crops and soil. however, no matter in the material supply link or in the production link, calcium supplementation is not on the agenda at present. it is difficult for farmers to buy materials like calcium-magnesium phosphate fertilizers in the agricultural material market. some high-end liquid calcium on the market is relatively expensive. buying it can only help farmers for emergency and cannot solve the problem fundamentally. on the contrary, many farmers are inseparable from high-concentration quick-acting phosphorus and potassium fertilizers. excessive amounts of phosphorus and potassium are antagonistic to calcium and magnesium, which further leaving crops in a hidden hunger for calcium. therefore, in the event of abnormal weather, crops need calcium to adjust and cope with adversity, and it will not be able to raise so much calcium for a while, and calcium deficiency will appear. 1.3 crop calcium deficiency affects human health in 2015, a survey report issued by the chinese center for 21 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.164 disease control and prevention nutrition. the surveys were conducted in 2000, 2004, 2009 and 2011, involving liaoning, heilongjiang, shandong, henan, hubei, hunan, jiangsu, guizhou, guangxi. there are more than 14,000 women of childbearing age between 25 and 45 years old in provinces and cities. the daily dietary intake compliance rate of adult women in our country, and the average calcium compliance rate is only about 3%. this big data statistics result is shocking. it shows that there is indeed a problem with chemical agriculture in our country, because 95% of human food comes from the soil. soil calcium deficiency leads to calcium deficiency in crops, and calcium deficiency in crops causes food chain effects which affect calcium deficiency in the population. the world health organization (who) announced that of the 135 basic diseases, 106 are related to calcium deficiency. the basic diseases include osteoporosis, bone hyperplasia, hypertension, arteriosclerosis, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, various stone diseases, and various allergic diseases, liver disease, nephrotic syndrome, sexual dysfunction, premenstrual syndrome and some cancers, etc. in short, calcium deficiency affects crop growth and yield, and the problem of calcium deficiency in agricultural products affects human health. this problem should arouse the attention of the whole society. 2. calcium is the total regulator of plant cell metabolism calcium has a strong function in plants. it regulates the stability of cell walls, maintains membrane structural integrity and permeability, and promotes enzyme activation. as a second messenger, it is responsible for the response and transmission of adversity signals, so it is called the total adjuster of plant cell metabolism. . 2.1 the physiological functions of calcium calcium in plants mainly constitutes calcium pectinate, calmodulin, and seeds containing calcium and magnesium phytate, etc. there are a large amount of organic calcium in the vacuole, mainly calcium oxalate, calcium citrate, and calcium malate. the ph can be adjusted to stabilize the cell environment. calcium is the pectin structural component of the cell wall and maintains the structure and function of the cell wall. calcium plays a key role in plant erection and stem stiffness. its role on cells and cell walls is to regulate the transport of carbohydrates. the amount of calcium pectinate in the cell wall is related to the sensitivity of fungal infection of tissues and the ripening of fruits. calcium can reduce the risk of disease infection during storage. calcium can enhance the disease resistance of plants. when calcium is lacking, the adhesion between calcium and pectin in the middle rubber layer is affected, and plant tissues are vulnerable to pathogens. calcium increases the storage and transportation resistance of agricultural products and makes them not perishable. calcium promotes the absorption of nitrate nitrogen and reduces the accumulation of nitrate in plants. calcium can improve the salt tolerance of plants. nitrogen-fixing bacteria in plants also need a lot of calcium. 2.2 the effect of calcium on cell membranes calcium is the link between substances in the cell membrane, and it is a substance necessary for cell elongation. calcium can increase the activity of superoxide dismutase (sod), reduce the content of membrane lipid malondialdehyde, and protect the integrity of the cell membrane structure. the damaged membrane system will inevitably lead to the reduction of cell energy conversion efficiency, so protecting the cell membrane system is protecting crops. low temperature causes a large number of free radicals to be produced in plants, causing damage to the membrane system. calcium can slow down the rate of decrease of superoxide dismutase (sod), peroxidase (pod) and catalase (cat) in plants. these three enzymes are important protective enzymes in plants, which are used to remove free radicals. calcium can effectively improve the cold resistance of plants. calcium can also improve the drought resistance and water retention capacity of plants by regulating the activity of certain enzymes. 2.3 calcium occupies a central position in signal transduction calcium occupies a central position in cell signal transduction. the stress of adversity causes a sharp increase in calcium ions in the cytoplasm. calcium comes from the cell wall and intracellular calcium stores, namely the vacuole and the endoplasmic reticulum. calcium is the second messenger of various adversity reactions. when the adversity signal is sent by ethylene, calcium ions (ca2+) are released from some organelles, which in turn activates a specific chemical reaction, calcium ion (ca2+) channels on the plasma membrane when it is turned on, extracellular calcium ions (ca2+) enter the cell, and ca2+ binds to a special calmodulin. in a series of cascade reactions, the calmodulin complex activates the third messenger abscisic acid. passed to the second messenger calcium ions activate transcription factors to express stress resistance genes. the calcium signal is sensed and transduced by the calcium binding protein (cam) downstream of it, which 22 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.164 then causes a series of biochemical reactions in the cell to adapt to or resist various adversity stresses. 2.4 it is not easy for crops to absorb calcium the calcium requirement of crops is 2.5 times that of phosphorus, but it is not easy for plants to absorb calcium. it is necessary to rely on transpiration to pull plants to absorb calcium in the form of divalent calcium ions. although the content of calcium in the soil is sometimes 10 times greater than that of potassium, the amount of calcium absorbed by plants is much less than that of potassium, because calcium can only be absorbed by young root tips that have not been plugged in the endothelial cell wall of plant roots, so the ability of plants absorbing calcium is limited. the speed at which calcium moves upward is largely affected by the intensity of transpiration. old leaves with high transpiration rate transport more calcium. although the transpiration rate of the newly-born shoots and fruit parts of plants is low, the ability to synthesize auxin (indole acetic acid) can stimulate the proton pump to increase new cation exchange points, promote the movement of calcium to the fruit, and accumulate calcium in the fruit. it is a good remedy to spray liquid calcium on the fruit surface in time during the young crop period. 3. supplementing calcium should consider the dual needs of crops and soil the calcium content in the earth’s crust is about 3.64%. the source of calcium in the soil is anorthite, pyroxene and amphibole, which are common in the soil. there are also calcite, dolomite, gypsum, biotite, epidote, and apatite. calcium is also contained in minerals such as stone and albite. the calcium content of soil in our country is very different. wet areas have low calcium content, sandy soil low calcium content, and calcareous soil high calcium content. the leaching loss of calcium is more than that of sodium. calcium is the most abundant ion in leaking water, spring water, river water, and lake water. in acidic soils in hot and humid areas, calcium bicarbonate dissolved in water is easily leached out with water flow, so soils in hot and humid areas are prone to calcium deficiency and the soil is acidic. alkaline soils in arid regions contain relatively more calcium. 3.1 lack of calcium in the soil is the cause of soil compaction the exchangeable calcium loss of the soil solution is lost with drainage, carried out of the farmland by crops, adsorbed by the clay particles in the soil to form a bridging material forming the soil aggregate structure, and antagonizes potassium ions to re-precipitate (figure 17). figure 17. calcium is a divalent cation and a bridging substance in the soil structure the formation of soil aggregate structure is a sign of soil health, and the formation of soil aggregate structure is inseparable from the bridging effect of divalent cations. the clay minerals in the soil-forming parent material are also called inorganic colloids with negative charges, and the humus in the soil is also called organic colloids with both positive and negative charges. the soil forms a combination of organic colloid and inorganic colloid, which requires divalent mineral cations to bridge. studies have shown that soils with aggregate structure have the following three combinations. that is, g1 clay minerals-calcium and magnesium divalent cations-humus, g2 clay minerals-divalent iron manganese cations-humus, and g3 clay minerals-humus (figure 18). figure 18. combination model diagram of clay minerals-divalent cations-humus years of planting and harvested crops carry a large amount of minerals from the farmland, destroying the original accumulation of soil minerals. the reason why chemical agriculture hardens the soil is because the divalent cations in the soil that act as a bridge between organic and inorganic colloids are replaced by the more active monovalent cations in chemical fertilizers (figure 19). when any one of potassium ions, ammonium ions and sodium ions in the soil accounts for 12-15% of the amount of soil base substitution, the divalent cations in the soil structure are replaced, and the soil structure is destroyed [1]. in soils that have been chemically planted for many years, and soils with poor aggregate structure and low organic matter, the effectiveness of trace elements will be greatly reduced, and more attention should be paid to the use of trace mineral 23 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.164 elements. although crops have low requirements for trace elements, they cannot be ignored for a long time. figure 19. schematic diagram of soil structure destruction caused by excess monovalent cations in the soil 3.2 calcium supplementation should consider the ratio of calcium, magnesium and potassium in fertilization, it is necessary to consider the needs of crops and soil for calcium and magnesium. when adding minerals to the soil, not only rely on the amount of crop removed, but also consider the availability of soil minerals. generally, the critical value of soil available potassium (k) is 80mg /kg, the critical value of effective magnesium (mg) is 120mg/kg, the critical value of available calcium (ca) is 400mg/kg, and the critical value of soil available phosphorus (p) is 12mg/kg. the ratio of available magnesium to available potassium in the soil is an important indicator of soil properties. studies have shown that the mg/k ratio in the soil is more appropriate at 3.715:1, and the effective ca/mg ratio in the soil is around 2.4-7. it can be seen from the above data that the value of available calcium and available magnesium required in the soil should be far greater than the value of available potassium. it is more reasonable to supplement the soil with a calcium-magnesium-potassium ratio of approximately 5:2:1. the chelated form of trace elements is easier to be absorbed by crops. elemental micro-fertilizers are best used together with organic materials such as straws in the base fertilizer. when the organic materials gradually evolve into humus after fermentation, they have a chelating effect on the trace elements. the combined trace elements have better physiological activity, are not easy to be fixed by the soil, and the utilization rate of crops is high. 4 how to supplement calcium in agriculture is an important topic therefore, how to supplement calcium in agricultural production is still an important topic. calcium magnesium phosphate fertilizer has national standards. calcium magnesium phosphate fertilizer can supplement the needs of crops for calcium, magnesium, phosphorus and trace elements. from the perspective of crop demand, calcium magnesium phosphate fertilizer is a fertilizer with a reasonable combination of medium and trace elements. it should become the majority of agricultural producers. the first choice when reapplying base fertilizer. there are not many specialized calcium fertilizers in the market. lime can be used as calcium fertilizer for acidic soils, and gypsum can be used as calcium fertilizer for alkaline soils. the principle of gypsum for improving saline-alkaline soil is that calcium replaces the sodium on the soil clay and combines with sulfur to form sodium sulfate is discharged with water to make soil flocculate and water permeability better. there are also superphosphate and double superphosphate in calcium fertilizer. calcium nitrate fertilizer is a kind of fertilizer that contains both nitrogen and calcium. it has good solubility and can be sprayed on the leaves. the disadvantage is that it has high hygroscopicity. the new chelated calcium or marine active calcium fertilizer can also be used as a calcium source supplement. in short, the above-mentioned calcium fertilizers are all urgently needed materials for crops. in order to make the crops grow well and produce high yields, please pay attention to calcium supplementation. it is recommended to reapply calcium fertilizers in the base fertilizer. it is a good remedy to spray liquid calcium on the fruit surface in time during the young crop period. references [1] zhou wei, li shutian, lin bao. review and prospect of research on crop sulphur and calcium nutrition [j]. chinese agricultural sciences, 2007 (01): 250-255. [2] [america] s. l. tisdale, author. translated by jin jiyun, liu rongle, etc. soil fertility and fertilizer [m]. china agricultural science and technology press, 1998. [3] du wenjuan, wang huijun, chen shaojie. changes in dietary nutrient intake of adult women in 9 provinces (regions) of china from 2000 to 2011[j]. chinese journal of epidemiology, 2015(36):715-719. [4] zhao fangjie, xie wanying, wang peng. soil and human health [j]. acta pedologica sinica, 2020(01):110. [5] liang mingzao, lu sen, zhang shuxiang. high-yield and high-quality cultivation system of ecological agriculture in china [m]. beijing: china agricultural university press, 2017. 1 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.448 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae introduction to the field practice and application analysis of “century tianwang bio-organic fertilizer” in the past 20 years hongfeng sun1* hongwei luan1 xiping chen1 guoquan jiang2 yulin peng2 cheng sun1 1. beijing shikemeng productivity technology r&d center, beijing, china 2. national hybrid rice engineering technology research center, hunan, china article info abstract article history received: 01 august 2021 accepted: 15 august 2021 published online: 30 september 2021 ensuring food security, increasing farmers’ income and improving people’s living standards are the focus of attention of all countries in the world today. “centrey tianwang” biological organic fertilizer has been upgraded to multi-functional biological organic fertilizer innovation, accepted as a new invention patent. “centrey tianwang” multifunctional biological organic fertilizer is a long-term natural biological organic fertilizer with high concentration. it is a new kind of slow-release fertilizer, with both quick and long-term effects. it can both fully meet the nutrient requirements of the crop, and maintain water and fertilizer, improve soil and prevent disease. it can not only control agriculture pollution, improve the crop quality and promote the yield of various crops, but also have special effects on the improvement of saline-alkali land, restoration of polluted cultivated land and degradation of agricultural residues. it is a kind of slow-release, long-acting bio-organic fertilizer that does not need any other fertilizer to be used with field crops and does not need topdressing during the whole growing period of crops. “centrey tianwang” multi-functional bio-organic fertilizer collects the essences of various medicinal plants, natural minerals, nano organic compounds and aerospace microbial agents, through special process, refined and processed, non-toxic, harmless, without side effects. keywords: centry tianwang organic fertilizer traditional chinese medicine agriculture 1. introduction “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer technology is developed by the team of sun cheng, who is the chief scientist of the academic committee of the united nations international information development organization, the chairman of the cypedia international federation of science and technology scholars, and the chairman of the executive committee of the international academician association, “father of fertilizers in china,” the scientist and academician of the world academy of productivity sciences. it is a major scientific and technological invention patent, conducted in-depth research and innovation on a series of problems such as low utilization of agricultural fertilizers, soil compaction, and environmental pollution, and successfully developed. “century tianwang” bio-organic fertilizer is a major invention patented technology achievement of the academician sun cheng’s team from 1988 to 1999, after 11 years of research and development and large-scale field trials. in 2000, it was listed as a national key new product plan project and a high-tech industry key demonstration project; the ministry of science and technology, the chinese association for science and technology and the chinese rural professional technology association have successively issued documents for national promotion and popu*corresponding author: hongfeng sun, beijing shikemeng productivity technology r&d center, beijing, china; email: wcpscc@vip.sina.com 2 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 larization. in 2006, the book “technology and application of new slow-release fertilizers of century tianwang” edited by the department of rural and social development of the ministry of science and technology was published and distributed nationwide as a training series of the national spark program to promote the popularization of “century tianwang”. as of 2020, nearly 30 enterprises in more than a dozen provinces, cities, and regions including beijing, tianjin, nanchang, shanxi, liaoning, jilin, hubei, hunan, fujian, hebei, henan, shandong, inner mongolia, and sichuan have successively introduced the “century tianwang”“new slow-release fertilizer technology. and with beijing gutian fertilizer co., ltd., hubei fengyi fertilizer co., ltd., lu’an yiniu biotechnology co., ltd., jiangxi qijia fertilizer co., ltd. and other enterprises with an annual output of more than 100,000 tons as the backbone enterprises, it has formed china’s largest bio-organic fertilizer enterprise network alliance“century tianwang enterprise alliance”. the product has been used in practice for 20 years, with an application area of more than 500 million acres, which not only covers most of china, but also has been exported to north korea, vietnam, malaysia and many other countries. the products are well received by farmers, and are known as the “king of fertilizer” and “magic fertilizer”, and have won more than 50 honors and awards at home and abroad. “century tianwang” bio-organic fertilizer has been innovatively upgraded to a multi-functional bio-organic fertilizer, and has been accepted as a new invention patent. it is a world-leading high-tech achievement that integrates nanotechnology, biotechnology, aerospace technology, humic acid dispersion, emulsification technology, medicine and fertilizer integration technology, and plant growth and reproductive nutrition balance regulation technology. it can control agricultural pollution. the eco-friendly fertilizers that improve crop quality and increase crop yields can not only increase the yield and income of various crops, but also have special effects on the improvement of saline-alkali land, the restoration of contaminated farmland, and the degradation of pesticide residues. innovative and upgraded “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer. in 2020, there will be hubei ruidi biotechnology co., ltd., hunan green kungfu biotechnology co., ltd., baotou baokang fertilizer co., ltd., and sichuan hehai fertilizer co., ltd. the company introduced this technology, improved the technical content of the company’s original products, expanded the product sales market, and built a new production line. “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer is a high-concentration natural long-acting bio-organic fertilizer and a new type of slow-release fertilizer. it is both quick-acting and long-acting, which can fully satisfy the nutrition of crops. need slow-release and controlled-release fertilizers that have the functions of water retention, fertilizer retention, slow release, soil improvement, and biological control. the formula is novel and unique, which is the first at home and abroad. it is a kind of slow-release long-acting bio-organic fertilizer that does not require any other fertilizers to be used in conjunction with a single-use plantar fertilizer, and does not require top dressing throughout the growth period of the crop. the economic and technical indicators of “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer are in the leading position at home and abroad. compared with chemical fertilizers with the same substrate, it can save more than 30%-40% of fertilizer application. grain crops and fruit trees increase by 10%-15%, and vegetable yields increase by 15%-25%. the application of “century tianwang” bio-organic fertilizer can significantly improve the quality of agricultural products, ensure food security, increase the sugar content of various fruits, watermelons and melons by 2 to 5 degrees, increase the color index of the fruit, and have a thin peel and good taste. the application of “century tianwang” bio-organic fertilizer can reduce the amount of chemical fertilizer by 30%-40%, increase the fertilizer utilization rate by more than 40%, and increase the soil organic matter content. “century tianwang” biological organic-inorganic slow-release compound fertilizer, when the organic matter reaches20%, the total nutrient content of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium can reach more than 30%-40%. the technical indicators are at the international leading level. the innovative and upgraded “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer can reach 45% organic matter and 20 million active bacteria/g, and the total nutrients of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium can reach more than 20%-25%. the technology is currently at the leading international level. “century tianwang” bio-organic fertilizer achieves technical indicators that cannot be achieved by any other brand fertilizer in the world. this is a miracle in the history of fertilizers in the world. in the preparation of the “1 million tons of energy-saving and environmentally friendly organic-inorganic high-efficiency controlled and slow-release compound fertilizer project funding application report”, the expert group of the institute of foreign economic relations of the national development and reform commission of china pointed out: “the chemical fertilizer industry is shocked. it will make an immeasurable contribution to improving production efficiency, land yield, resource utilization, agricultural productivity, and the development of eco-friendly, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.448 3 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 efficient and ecological modern agriculture, ensuring food security, and increasing farmers’ production and income. this is a great contribution to the benefit of mankind. the major issues for future generations are of strategic significance for the development of china’s high-tech industry and participation in international competition. it will have a huge saving and demonstration effect on the formation of an internationally competitive high-tech industry clusters and new economic growth points.” “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer collects the essence of various medicinal plants, natural minerals, nano-organic compounds and aerospace microbial inoculants, etc., through special technology, refined processing, non-toxic and harmless, without any side effects. 2. the significance of the project ensuring food security, increasing farmers’ income, and improving people’s living standards are the focus of attention of all countries in the world today. according to a survey by the united nations food and agriculture organization, agricultural fertilizers account for 40%-60% of the increase in food production, and china accounts for 58%. in china, agricultural fertilizer costs account for 50% of the total agricultural production costs. for farmers to increase their production and income and ensure china’s food security, agricultural fertilizers play a pivotal role. however, china is currently basically a chemical agriculture and has become the world’s largest country in the consumption and production of chemical fertilizers. since the 1980s, the long-term application of chemical fertilizers has been mainly instant fertilizers, with low utilization rate. nitrogen fertilizer is 30-35%, phosphate fertilizer is 10-15%, and potash fertilizer is 35-50%. due to single, excessive, unscientific and unreasonable application, the fertilizer utilization rate is extremely low, resulting in a lot of waste of nutrients and increasing agricultural costs. for this reason, although the state has introduced a series of favorable agricultural policies over the years, and has continuously increased subsidies for grain production and grain farmers, it is regrettable that the benefits brought by these favorable agricultural policies have often been consumed by the increase in cost of agricultural materials. the low utilization rate of fertilizers not only increases farmers’ costs, affects farmers’ increase in production and income, but also causes a series of serious social problems such as soil compaction, decline in the quality of agricultural products, and water resources and environmental pollution. at present, the overall situation of china’s soil environment is worrying, with serious pollution in some areas. from april 2005 to december 2013, china conducted the first national soil pollution survey, and the actual survey area was 6.3 million square kilometers. the country’s total soil over-standard rate was 16.1%, among which the potential ratios of light, light, moderate and severe pollution were 11.2%, 2.3%, 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively. the pollution types are mainly inorganic, organic second-child, and composite pollution has a relatively small proportion. the number of inorganic pollutants exceeding the standard point accounts for 82.8% of all the number of exceeding standard points. the ecological environment is related to the future of the nation and the quality of agricultural products maintains the health and safety of consumers. the inability of agricultural products to go abroad and the increase in farmers’ income are restricted. thus, the purchasing power of farmers, who account for 70% of the chinese population, restricts our economic development to a large extent. in order to realize as soon as possible the guiding spirit of general secretary xi jinping: “china is strong, agriculture must be strong, china rich, agriculture must be prosperous, china beautiful, and rural area must be beautiful”. the fundamental way to promote the green development of agriculture is to rely on technological progress and technological innovation. therefore, it is of great strategic significance to popularize the “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer, a world-leading high-end technology product. “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer is based on high and new technology, based on the theory of ecological agriculture, and based on the theory of plant vegetative growth and reproductive growth balance. fertilizer-type organic matter such as grass charcoal, distillers’ grains, lignite, straw, livestock manure, sludge, garbage, agricultural and sideline products, etc. are used as basic (carrier) raw materials, and a unique “fertilizer nano slow-release agent” and unique st high are added. concentrated compound aerospace microbial inoculants, unique native natural humic acid, natural medicinal plant extracts and nutrient elements that can promote the life activities of microorganisms, formulated according to the scientific principles of plant nutrition growth and reproductive growth microecological nutrition balance, after specific craft processing is made. its resources can be obtained from local materials, waste utilization, and endless circulation, which is in line with the development direction of ecological agriculture. “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer is a full-nutrient fertilizer with a high content of doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.448 4 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 active ingredients. it not only contains a large amount of organic matter, humic acid and the three major elements of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, but also contains a variety of medium quantities necessary for plant growth. , trace elements and a variety of organic compounds, at the same time, it also contains a large number of beneficial microorganisms. this fertilizer is different from chemical fertilizers, organic composts and general biological fertilizers. in addition to providing relatively balanced nutrients for crop growth, it is mainly to improve the utilization rate of inorganic fertilizers and promote the life activities and reproduction of microorganisms in the rhizosphere of plants. , increase soil fertility, stimulate crop growth, increase crop yield, improve quality, degrade pesticide residues, and achieve zero pesticide residues in all inspectable agricultural products. “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer, its notable functional characteristics are “three nos”, “three highs”, “two completes” and “one degradation”. “three nos”, that is no toxin, no harm, and no peculiar smell; “three highs”, that is high nutrient, high organic matter, and high humic acid; “two completes”, that is, fertilizer has complete nutrient elements and complete fertilizer efficiency; “one degradation” “, is to degrade pesticide residues. field crops can be exempt from pesticides, and vegetables, fruits, and cash crops can be reduced by 80% to 90%. it has the following characteristics: (1) it has low solubility in water, and slow release of nutrient elements in the soil, reduced the loss of nutrient elements, increasing fertilizer utilization by more than 30%-40%; (2) the fertilizer effect is stable for a long time, and the energy source continuously meets the nutrient demand of the plants during the whole growth period; the fertilizer effect period is more than doubled than that of ordinary chemical fertilizers, reaching 110-130 days; (3) special nano-functional materials such as “nano slow release agent” and “nano hydroxyapatite” contained in the fertilizer can effectively reduce the salt content and alkalinity of the soil, reduce and remove harmful heavy metals in the soil, and are used to improve saline-alkali land and pollute cultivated land. repair special fertilizers with special effects. the fertilizer has a low salt index. even in high-temperature climates, there will be no “burning seedlings” when applied; (4) the number and frequency of fertilization are reduced and costs are saved. under the same yield conditions, it can save more than 30%-40% of the fertilization amount. field crops are fertilized at one time without topdressing; (5) it is suitable for different types of soil and plants, and can improve the soil structure and the availability of soil nutrients, and reduce soil compaction; (6) it is tolerant to flooding, drought, lodging, saving labor, saving fertilizer, increasing production and income, with an average increase of 10%-20%; (7) it improves crop quality, reduces pollution, and ensures food security; (8) it has strong stress resistance, effective prevention and control of various crop diseases and insect pests. the fertilizer contains plant-derived chinese herbal medicine extracts, which can effectively degrade pesticide residues; (9) it has a long storage period and is easy to transport. the actual validity period can reach more than three years. this technical achievement can not only meet the market’s fertilizer needs and the urgent needs of saline-alkali land improvement projects and contaminated farmland restoration projects, but also provide an effective way for the resource utilization of organic solid wastes such as livestock manure treatment. therefore, the fertilizer project was constructed. it has great significance. 3. technical route and innovation of “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer the core technical route and innovation of “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer are the combination of organic and inorganic, nano slow-release technology and aerospace microbial technology, natural humic acid dispersion, emulsification, adsorption technology and medicinal plant extraction the combination of technology, the combination of medicine and fertilizer, the integrated technology, following the relationship between plant nutrient growth and reproductive growth and micro-ecological nutrition balance, design advanced, scientific and reasonable crop special fertilizer formula, processed by a special controlled and slow-release production process. the technical route and innovation of century tianwang multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer are based on following the theoretical methods of chinese traditional chinese medicine technology and obtaining sufficient scientific information and digital basis to realize invention and innovation. the main points of following the theoretical methods of chinese tcm technology are: adopting “looking, listening, inquiring, feeling” chinese medicine-style symptomatic scientific formula fertilization technology inquiring: inquire the growers about the type, performance, special requirements of the crops grown, the yield per mu (average, highest, and lowest) of 3 to 5 years, the corresponding fertilization status (manufacturer, fertilizer type, nutrient composition, inspection doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.448 5 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 results), and the status of pests and diseases; feeling: plant seeds or leaves of crops and take soil, analyze and test items according to requirements (according to the requirements of planting crops, what is missing, and how much is missing, the principle of how much is missing), check local weather data for 3 to 5 years, and predict future annual weather conditions; looking: the expectations and hopes for planting crops and the training that growers should have the planting literacy of the crop; listening: the appearance of the planted crops on site is related to other crops in the surrounding environment, the level of growers or plant protection personnel. the technical route and innovation points of century tianwang multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer to realize invention and innovation are: 3.1 using new nanometer slow-release technology in fertilizers, a nano-organic compound “fertilizer nano slow release agent”, which integrates nitrification inhibition, urease inhibition, nitrogen stabilization and plant growth regulation, is added to enable plants to perform photosynthesis, chlorophyll synthesis, and protein during the day. the activity of synthesis and enzymes reaches the optimal state quickly, and promotes the metabolism and growth of plants; nano-organic compounds can reduce the soil bulk density, increase the porosity, and have strong water permeability, promote the decline of salt leaching, and have extreme desalination and salt tolerance. strong, quickly reduce the salt index and reduce the salt content; the nano-organic compound in the fertilizer has a strong ammonia-fixing ability, which can effectively inhibit the formation of nitrate nitrogen in the soil, inhibit the activity of nitrifying bacteria, and reduce the ph in the soil it can adjust the ph value, increase the adsorption strength of soil colloids and clay particles to ammonia ions and sodium ions, which can not only reduce the salt-alkali concentration, but also enable the slow release of nutrients in the soil, reduce nutrient element losses, improve fertilizer utilization, and meet plant nutrient needs. 3.2 adopting aerospace microbial technology in the fertilizer, a non-toxic, harmless, and odorless pure natural organic material containing high organic matter and high humic acid is added with a unique “st highly concentrated compound special aerospace microbial agent”, which realizes microbial technology. high integration with space technology. the microbial strain was successfully carried on the shenzhou spacecraft, using cosmic rays in space, ultra-vacuum, ultra-clean, microgravity, etc., to change factors, causing the microbial strain to mutate, improving the activity and resistance of the strain, and exerting its comprehensive effectiveness. the effect of microbial agents depends on the vitality, reproduction speed, quantity and the secreted metabolites of microorganisms. the innovation of st high-concentration composite aerospace microbial fermentation process is to use the combined fermentation method of bacillus subtilis and bacillus subtilis, and at the same time, use metal ions to promote the formation of bacillus subtilis and quickly increase the number of bacillus subtilis. it can shorten the fermentation cycle, increase the effective number of viable bacteria, and promote the formation of bacterial spores. the specific effects of aerospace microbial agents are shown in: (1) the first is that the st special inoculum has multiple functions: this unique inoculum forms a huge dominant flora in the roots of crops. in the inoculum, bacillus reproduces one generation in 20 minutes, and it can multiply by fission to the 72th power of z in 24 hours. (2) the second is that the st special bacterial agent secretes a large number of metabolites and is rich in a large number of antibacterial substances, which causes the pathogenic bacteria to deform, cell rupture, and loss of the activity of the contents, thereby losing the ability to infect crops and also secrete a large number of enzymes. it is like cutting large molecules into small molecules with a knife, which directly facilitates the absorption of plants. for example, the main component of the nematode shell in the soil is chitin. lateral spores can secrete chitinase, which breaks the nematode surface cells and makes them lose their pathogenic ability. (3) the third is that st bacteria can also secrete active substances, organic acids, carbonic acid, natural growth factors, promote the absorption of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and its organic matter, reduce the amount of chemical fertilizers, and extend fertilizer efficiency. (4) the fourth is that st bacteria can secrete viscous substances, promote the formation of aggregates, balance the soil structure, and improve the ability to retain fertilizer, water and heat. (5) the fifth is to improve the utilization rate of fertilizers. the metabolites are rich in enzymes such as protease, amylase, esterase and organic acid substances, which decompose nutrients in organic matter and insoluble salts in inorganic fertilizers to increase the utilization rate. it can make the inherent functions and functions of organic matter and humic acid in organic materials play more fully. (6) the sixth is that the microbial flora in the fertilizer and the original beneficial microorganisms in the soil form doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.448 6 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 a dominant flora to promote the virtuous cycle of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen and other elements in the soil ecosystem, thereby repairing the soil ecological environment system and making the ecosystem reach a new stable balance. organic matter is decomposed by microorganisms and converted into humus, which can improve the buffering capacity of the soil, and react with sodium carbonate to form sodium humate, which reduces soil alkalinity. sodium humate can also stimulate crop growth and enhance salt resistance. humus can promote soil formation of agglomerate structure increases the porosity and water permeability, which is conducive to salt leaching, adjusts the balance of water and salt, and inhibits the production of a large amount of organic acids in the decomposition process of the returned organic matter. on one hand, it can neutralize the alkalinity of the soil; on the other hand, it accelerates the decomposition of nutrients, promotes the conversion of late-acting nutrients, and improves the availability of phosphorus. the organic materials through the action of microorganisms can not only reduce the salt content, neutralize the alkalinity of the soil, adjust the ph value, but also effectively increase the soil organic matter, improve the soil structure, prevent soil compaction, and promote the growth of plants and improve crops. natural disease resistance and lodging resistance. in the “century tianwang” special fertilizer for saline-alkali land, the organic matter decomposed by microorganisms not only fully improves the soil in the improvement of saline-alkali land, it improves soil organic matter and functions such as water retention, fertilizer retention, salt reduction, alkali pressure, and soil loosening. it also plays an important role in repairing heavy metal contaminated farmland. it is mainly manifested in: on one hand, organic matter directly interacts with heavy metal ions, affecting their form, migration, transformation, and biological effectiveness in the environment, thereby fixing heavy metals and reducing their activity; on the other hand, these organic materials can effectively improve the soil structure and properties after being applied to the soil, such as the soil organic matter content and ph value, and improve the soil’s own buffering and fixing capacity for heavy metals. in short, century tianwang multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer, the restoration mechanism of inorganic pollutants is that after the fertilizer enters the soil ecosystem, aerobic bacteria, anaerobic bacteria and other microbial probiotics will reduce the acidity of the soil and increase the acidity of the soil through its own biological reaction. the ph value of the soil can reduce the toxicity of harmful heavy metals in the soil. at the same time, the microorganisms in the fertilizer can fix the heavy metals, promote the active heavy metals in the soil to become organically bound, forming a filter layer and isolation layer, and reduce the crop’s absorption of heavy metals in the soil. the effect of the biological fertilizer on the restoration of organic pollutants such as pesticides in the soil is to reduce the frequency of prevention and control of pests and diseases, reduce the amount of pesticides used, and thereby reduce the amount of pesticide residues in crops. one is that dominant colonies are formed around the roots of crops, which strongly inhibits the reproduction of pathogens and reduces the number of pests and diseases. on the other hand, microorganisms produce a variety of substances during their life activities, such as hormones, humic acids and antibiotics. these substances can stimulate the growth of crops and enhance the ability of crops to resist diseases. 3 . 3 f o l l o w i n g t h e b a l a n c e d r a t i o o f p l a n t vegetative growth and reproductive growth, and designing various advanced, scientific and reasonable special fertilizer formulas according to the actual conditions of saline-alkali soils the so-called proportional relationship between plant vegetative growth and reproductive growth is the proportional relationship between the amount of nutrients needed in the early stage of plant growth and the number of plant reproductive growth. the two are interdependent. vegetative growth provides nutrients for reproductive growth, and reproductive growth provides conditions for the next generation of vegetative growth. besides, there is mutual restriction. there is nutrient competition between vegetative growth and reproductive growth. when vegetative growth is excessive, reproductive growth is inhibited, and when reproductive growth is too vigorous, the supply of vegetative growth is insufficient. there is a certain rule for each crop to achieve the yield and how much nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and other nutrients are required. this rule is determined by the respective nutrient characteristics of each crop and soil conditions. when designing fertilizer product formulations, we should not only design scientific and reasonable formulas based on the nutritional characteristics of plants, but also consider soil conditions. 3.4 combine natural humic acid dispersion, emulsification and adsorption technology with medicinal plant extraction technology the physiological activity of humic acid on plants is doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.448 7 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 shown as stimulating plant growth and metabolism, improving fruit quality and enhancing plant resistance to stress, and has a strong ability to accumulate heavy metals in the soil. one kilogram of concentrated humic acid powder is equivalent to 30 tons of animal manure. humin in humic acid can significantly promote the aggregation of soil colloidal particles, improve the adsorption capacity of colloidal particles, prevent surface water runoff and soil erosion, and increase the ability to retain water and fertilizer; there are many charged gene in humic acid molecules, equivalent to many hands, can grasp (chelate) some cations or anions free in the soil solution at any time, so that there is no too much ohor h+ in the soil solution, and then buffer the alkaline or acidity of the soil. in other words, the soil has the function of adjusting the ph value of the soil. humic acid also has the function of a biocatalyst, which can promote a variety of metabolic reactions in plants, thereby promoting plants to synthesize more chlorophyll, sugar, amino acids, making plant growth healthier, and humic acid is also equivalent to a variety of microorganisms’ culture medium ingredients. “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer adopts a unique original natural humic acid containing more than 100% organic matter, mixed with non-hazardous organic solid waste such as poultry manure as the fertilizer organic matter carrier and the combination of pyrethrum and other medicinal natural plant extracts exerts a variety of special effects. (1) the original ecological natural humic acid contains more hydrophilic groups, and combined with pyrethrum and other medicinal plant extracts with insecticidal and bactericidal effects, it can effectively exert its good dispersion and emulsification effects, thereby helping to improve pesticides’ activity greatly reduces the decomposition rate of organic phosphorus. (2) the natural humic acid in the bio-organic fertilizer has a large internal surface area, and has a strong adsorption effect on organic and inorganic substances. it can be combined with materials that have the function of remediating pesticides and pesticide-contaminated soils, which will form a high stability complex, which has a slow-release effect on pesticides, can greatly reduce the amount of pesticides and delay the efficacy. (3) after the natural humic acid is compounded with pesticides, its toxicity is greatly reduced, which is of great significance for reducing environmental pollution and developing pollution-free crop production. (4) the native natural humic acid in the “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer, in addition to its good dispersion, emulsification, and adsorption effects, improves the activity of medicinal plant extracts, and degrades the pesticide residues in the soil, the natural humic acid also it has the function of improving soil and can be used as soil amendment. it can promote the formation of soil aggregates and the functions of water storage and fertilizer retention; enhance soil buffering performance, improve low-yield soil; have nutritional functions, can be used as urease inhibitors, effectively inhibit urease activity in the soil, increase nutrients, adjust nutritional quality, and achieve nutrient balance , improve the utilization rate of nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer; have stimulating function, can be used as a plant growth regulator, enhance respiration, strengthen roots, promote absorption, increase enzyme activity, promote metabolism, stimulate crop growth and so on. natural humic acid also has many functions that are beneficial to improving soil and crop growth. 3.5 combination of medicine and fertilizer, a d d i n g p u re n a t u r a l p l a n t s o u rc e c h i n e s e herbal medicine extracts and microecological preparations to the fertilizer, effectively killing insects, killing bacteria, and degrading pesticide residues (1) “century tianwang” multifunctional bio-organic fertilizer, which contains nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium elements and the insecticide fungicide pyrethrum and other medicinal plant extracts, changes the surface activity of pesticides and increase their insecticidal activity. reasonable mixing and application of fertilizers and insecticidal and fungicidal medicinal plant extracts can improve the insect resistance of plants by increasing the penetration, inhalation and conduction of insecticides in plants and pests, thereby improving the control effect and reducing insecticide dosage. (2) the mixed combination of bio-organic fertilizer and medicinal plant extracts such as the insecticide and fungicide pyrethrum, the integration of medicine and fertilizer has the effect of mutual synergy. for example, the combination of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium in fertilizers and the insecticide and fungicide pyrethrum can increase the yield by more than 10% compared with the equivalent element fertilizers alone. at the same time, it also has an inhibitory effect on some crop diseases. “century tianwang” special bio-organic fertilizer for crops, due to the combination of organic and inorganic, the combination of nano slow-release technology and agricultural aerospace biotechnology, and advanced and reasonable product formula, determines that it can not only meet the nutritional needs of plants throughout the growth period, and ensures that increasing production and income can also increase soil organic matter, improves doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.448 8 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 soil structure, improves crop product quality, enhance crop resistance, prevents various diseases and insect pests, and degrades pesticide residues. applying “century tianwang” crop special bio-organic fertilizer not only has a good effect, but also has a lower input cost than any other fertilizer. compared with other similar products, the market price of “century tianwang” fertilizer products is not only slightly lower in price, but also the amount of fertilizer can be reduced by 30-40%. some field crops are applied with enough base fertilizer at one time, without topdressing, saving labor and time, the increase in crop yield is also higher than that of other fertilizers. therefore, “century tianwang” bio-organic fertilizer has strong competitiveness in domestic and foreign markets. 4. typical case of the practical application of “century tianwang” bio-organic fertilizer “century tianwang” bio-organic fertilizer covers more than half of china and is exported to many countries. it has been used for more than 20 years. it is known as the “king of fertilizer” and “shen fertilizer” and has created many miracles. typical cases include: (1) helping “father of hybrid rice” academician yuan longping to break through the 900 kilograms of rice per mu mark with one action when the “father of hybrid rice” academician yuan longping conducted the fourth phase of the public relations test of 900 kg per mu of super hybrid rice, he conducted 6 consecutive years of research and experiment, and he did not exceed the 900 kg per mu mark. in 2011, in longhui county, hunan province, at a high altitude (380 meters above sea level) 900 kg super rice research and demonstration site, used nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium produced by anhui lu’an yiniu biological technology co., ltd., a product quality benchmarking enterprise of century tianwang enterprise alliance. organic-inorganic compound fertilizer with 34% total nutrients, in the same area, the same soil, the same management team, the same rice seed “liangyou no. 2”, under the same irrigation system, broke through the 900 kilograms that academician yuan longping has not broken for 6 consecutive years. yield per mu. on september 18, 2011, the ministry of agriculture organized experts to test and accept on-site production. the average yield per mu reached 926.6 kg, breaking the 900 kg mark for the first time. from december 15th, 2010 to may 12th, 2011, academician yuan longping also used eight different fertilizer varieties from eight units at home and abroad each year to conduct comparative experiments at the hunan crop south propagation center of the sanya security zone farm in hainan. the seeds are also the rice varieties “y liangyou no. 2” and “y58s/p143” tested by the national hybrid rice engineering technology research center. the test results showed that the only fertilizer produced by anhui lu’an yiniu company exceeded 900 kg. fertilizers have not broken through, and the compound fertilizer including the “three 15s” of the united states has not exceeded 900 kilograms. field experiments have proved that the organic-inorganic compound fertilizer produced by anhui lu’an yiniu company not only helped academician yuan longping to break through the 900 kg mark, but also passed the figure 1. process flow chart of production line doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.448 9 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 comparison test with the “three 15s” imported from the united states (15 for each of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium). not only can it save about 30% of the amount of fertilization, but it can also improve the organic matter of the soil. the “three 15s” chemical compound fertilizers in the united states do not have the function of organic-inorganic compound fertilizer. the fertilizer of anhui lu’an yiniu company helped to break the 900 kg per mu yield. academician yuan longping was very happy. he deeply felt to academician jiang guoquan, chief engineer of lu’an yiniu company: “to achieve high yields, only good crop varieties are no, good fertilizer must be available.” therefore, academician yuan longping has successively designated lu’an yiniu company and jiangxi qijia fertilizer co., ltd. century tianwang enterprise alliance as the “yuan’s super hybrid rice special fertilizer designated production enterprise”, and he has also served as lu’an yiniu company and jiangxi yiniu company. qijia company put up a plaque. academician yuan longping was also happy to take the initiative to take the lead in establishing the “academician workstation” for lu’an yiniu company, and personally wrote an inscription for the enterprise “good food for crops yiniu fertilizer” since then, the organic-inorganic compound fertilizer produced by lu’an yiniu company helped academician yuan longping overcome the 1,000 kg per mu yield until it reached 1,500 kg per mu. (2) helping the national model worker sun zusheng to set a record in the history of early rice in southern china, cctv “news broadcast” reported national model worker, sun zusheng, party branch secretary of jiangxi excellent village, dazhou village, xinjian county, jiangxi province, has contracted 5000 mu of rice planting himself. in 2008, he applied the “century tianwang” brand organic-inorganic compound fertilizer with 30% total nutrients of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium produced by jiangxi qijia fertilizer co., ltd. the average yield per mu reached 1,100 jin (=1/2 kilogram, and the highest was 1,200 jin , a national early rice highest per mu yield in history. this was reported on the “news broadcast” program on july 13, 2008. the national model worker sun zusheng specially invited the main members of the “father of chinese fertilizer” academician sun cheng’s team to his home. on the field, he excitedly said to academician sun cheng: “thank you for inventing such a good fertilizer. it has not only improved my soil, increased my production but also made me appear on ‘news broadcast’.” (3) assisting the full launch of china’s soil ecological restoration project “century tianwang” bio-organic fertilizer can not only increase crop yields and ensure food security, but more importantly, it can effectively carry out soil ecological restoration, improve soil organic matter, degrade pesticide residues and remove soil heavy metals, and achieve zero pesticide residue planting cultivation to ensure the safety of agricultural products and food. therefore, “century tianwang” bio-organic fertilizer and “century tianwang” all kinds of special remediation agents for contaminated soil have become the most important restoration materials for soil ecological restoration in china. on december 16, 2018, at the “new era total factor productivity innovation forum” conference, the graduate school of the chinese academy of social sciences, the rural education development center and other conference organizers grandly held the “sc tcm agricultural soil ecological restoration comprehensive new technology project” at the launching ceremony, liu zhiren, counselor of the state council of the people’s republic of china, jia jingdun, director of the torch center of the ministry of science and technology, researcher jia jingdun, kuang tingyun, academician of the chinese academy of sciences, and sun cheng, academician of the world academy of productivity sciences (waps), jointly pressed the project start button as the project launching guests. in may 2019, the “century tianwang” saline-alkali soil fertilizer and salt balance bio-nano improvement technology project with the “century tianwang” bio-organic fertilizer and a special remediation agent for contaminated soil as the core was listed as a key research and development plan of shandong province (major scientific and technological innovation project). references [1] jiang shanxiang “fertilizer engineering series: phosphoric acid, phosphate fertilizer and compound fertilizer”, chemical industry press 1999. [2] xi zhenbang “modern chemical fertilizer science”, china agriculture press, 2003. [3] lin bao, “fertilizers and non-pollution agriculture”, china agriculture press, 2003. [4] sun cheng “technology and application of new type slow release fertilizer of century tianwang”, taiwan publishing house, 2006. [5] sun hongfeng “practice and thinking on the transformation of scientific and technological achievements” china journal of scientific and technological achievements 2021. [6] jiang shanxiang “fertilizer engineering series: phosphoric acid, phosphate fertilizer and compound fertilizer”, chemical industry press 1999. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.448 1 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.341 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae teaching activities to contribute to the environmental education of the agricultural engineer yendry llorente aguilera*　maribel ramírez molina　royder garcía lang the university of holguín, cuba article info abstract article history received: 1 december 2020 accepted: 8 january 2021 published online: 30 march 2021 the research aims to develop teaching activities to contribute to the environmental education of the future agricultural engineer at the municipal university center (cum) sagua de tánamo, based on the most up-todate knowledge about existing environmental problems. the practical contribution is given in the proposal of educational activities of an environmental nature that involve productive entities, peasants and the family itself with the collaboration of community organizations and institutions. its practical significance consists in the possibility of implementation by teachers to promote environmental training in students of this career, from the chemistry discipline, contributing to a greater preparation to face the existing environmental problems in the territory. the scientific novelty lies in the conception used when planning teaching activities, to actively involve various members of the community in the development of the production process, which will allow to obtain encouraging results in the teaching-learning process. theoretical, empirical, experimental methods and documentary review were used. its practical significance consists in its comprehensive application from a systemic, humanistic and integrating approach to transform the modes of action of students and affects their training. keywords: environment destruction agricultural engineer education teaching activities 　 1.introduction environmental problems on the planet are increasing and are becoming more worrisome every day [1], for which the adoption of immediate measures is necessary with a view to offering solutions worldwide. one of the objectives of the economic and social policy of the cuban state is to raise the standard of living of the population where it focuses its actions on the basis of work guidelines. one of them focuses on emphasizing the promotion of environmental education that is based on the idea that through it, it is possible to give a differentiated treatment to the environment and research in this field, taking into account sustainable development, confrontation climate change and the conservation and rational use of natural resources, such as soils, water, beaches, the atmosphere, forests and biodiversity [2]. in this context is the training of the agronomist engineer, for whom, according to the bibliography, the first skills that must be developed in his training are related to the diagnosis and identification of the main problems in correspondence with the productivity of the soils, the yield of the crops, the factors that affect it, as well as establishing prediction of the possible results that can be obtained, for which the contents of the general chemistry subject are required, through the development of tasks that can be solved from the academic component, working and *corresponding author: yendry llorente aguilera, the university of holguín, cuba; e-mail: yllorentea@uho.edu.cu copyright research on world agricultural economy is licensed under a creative commons-non-commercial 4.0 international copyright (cc by-nc4.0). readers shall have the right to copy and distribute articles in this journalin any form in any medium, and may also modify, convert or create on the basis of articles. in sharing and using articles in this journal, the user must indicate the author and source, and mark the changes made in articles. copyright nan yang academy of sciences pte. ltd. all rights reserved. 2 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 / or research, of great importance, since students acquire chemical-environmental knowledge and skills to better assess the risks and benefits and acquire skills to have more information when making decisions regarding technological problems related to their future knowledge. that is why it is proposed to solve the following problem: how to promote the environmental training of the agricultural engineer at the municipal university center in sagua de tánamo? in correspondence with this problem, the following topic was determined: teaching activities to favor the environmental education of the agricultural engineer. the following objective is declared: to elaborate teaching activities to contribute to the environmental education of the future agronomist engineer at the municipal university center in sagua de tánamo. to carry out the research, a population of 64 first-year students of the engineering in agronomy career was taken into account, the sample includes 64 students, and it was taken intentionally. the system of methods used in the investigation are the following: theoretical methods: analysis and synthesis, induction deduction, historical logical and the systemic approach. empirical methods: observation of joint activities, parent surveys, interviews. the practical contribution is given in the proposal of teaching activities, to contribute from the insertion of various tasks of an environmental nature that involve productive entities, farmers, civil servants and all members of the group, the family itself with the collaboration of the organizations and community institutions. its practical significance consists in the possibility of implementation by the teachers’ proposing teaching activities to promote environmental training in students of the agronomy engineering career, from the chemistry discipline, with an environmental approach, which contributes to the students show greater preparation to face the existing environmental problems in the territory. the scientific novelty lies in the concept used when planning teaching activities, to actively involve several members of the community in the development of the production process, which will allow to obtain encouraging results in the teaching-learning process of the future agricultural engineer. 2.developing the environmental education 2.1 theoretical foundations about the environment the existence of the human species depends to a large extent on its ability to maintain the natural balance of the world and on the efficient application of the new advances that technological development is offering in order not to deplete the available resources, for which reason gradual deterioration of nature must be stopped and it is necessary to develop systems that contribute to its regeneration. the global nature of ecological problems and their interdependence with development models are issues accepted in forums and in broad spheres of opinion, it is a difficult issue when it comes to global responsibility, when those responsible are the richest countries, when a many governments care very little about the future of the planet. 2.2 main environmental problems the main global problems affect the quality of life of the peoples, mainly those of the south, most of which have an underdeveloped economy. it is therefore necessary to know them to understand the need to implement a set of measures that transform the modes of action of individuals, in favor of the protection of natural resources and the environment. consumer societies are fundamentally responsible for the atrocious destruction of the environment, they were born from the old colonial metropolises and from imperial policies that, in turn, generated the backwardness and poverty that today plague the vast majority of humanity. with only 20% of the world's population, they consume two-thirds of the metals and three-quarters of the energy produced in the world. they have poisoned the seas and rivers, they have polluted the air, they have weakened and perforated the ozone layer, and they have saturated the atmosphere with gases that alter climatic conditions with catastrophic effects that we are already beginning to suffer [3]. the validity of these words is appreciated, since the oppression of the rich capitalist countries of the north is maintained, which produce manufactured goods and exchange for cheap raw materials with the underdeveloped countries of the south, plunder their natural resources and cause considerable damage to the environment. a very difficult panorama is really appreciated in the world due to the accumulation of environmental problems, which together with the world crisis endangers life on the planet. (1) at a global level: global warming of the atmosphere (greenhouse effect), due to the emission, by industry and agriculture, gases that absorb long-wave radiation reflected by the earth's surface; the depletion of the ozone layer of the stratosphere, the planet's protective shield, by the action of chemicals based on chlorine and bromine, which allows a greater penetration of ultraviolet doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.341 3 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 rays towards its surface; the increasing contamination of waters and soils by the dumping and discharges of industrial and agricultural waste; the depletion of forest cover (deforestation), especially in the tropics, due to the exploitation for firewood and the expansion of agriculture; the loss of species, both wild and domestic, of plants and animals due to the destruction of natural habitats, agricultural specialization and the increasing pressure to the one to which the fishery is subjected; soil degradation in agricultural and natural habitats, including erosion, ponding, and salinization, leading to the loss of the soil's productive capacity over time. there are other problems such as poverty, drug addiction, the effect of the urban crisis, nuclear risk, armed conflicts, diseases such as aids and influenza ah1n1 among others. (2) in holguín, despite the positive results achieved in previous strategic cycles, difficulties persist in solving the main environmental problems that, among other factors, are associated with: lack of systematicity, discipline and lack of comprehensive approaches, limited introduction of the results of science, technology and innovation, as well as of the environmental dimension in policies, plans, development programs and land use planning; the lack of culture and environmental sensitivity in society; limited participation and articulation of actors, both institutional and civil society; outdated, low effectiveness and little compliance with the current legal framework; deterioration, inadequacies and lack of integration of environmental monitoring networks; deficiencies in planning and ranking according to available resources and inadequacies in financing; not adequate reflection in the national and business accounting of the use of natural resources linked to development programs and production processes, respectively; the impacts of climate change that accentuate the effects on the environment; appearance of new actors in environmental policy and management; lack of integration in the management of natural resources between the different organizations of the central state administration (oace). it is therefore necessary to know how this problem behaves in the municipality of sagua de tánamo, as a prerequisite for the preparation of teaching tasks. the territory is located in the northeast of the holguín province, bordered to the north by the fran país municipality; to the south, with el salvador from the guantánamo province; to the east, with moa; to the west, with the ii front of the santiago de cuba province and the mayarí municipality, it has an area of 702 km2, of which 545 km2 correspond to the sagua river basin. 70% of the territory corresponds to the turquino plan, so most of it is mountainous with conditions for growing coffee and the flat part is made up of fertile soils favorable to agriculture. 34 pollutant sources have a direct impact on the territory, among which are 29 that are considered to be main or extremely active: 29 coffee depulper, 2 minal establishments and the soft drink factory; as well as the extraction of sand and the urban waste system, with emphasis on the appalling situation of the ditches in the low-lying areas, as mosquito breeding sites and highly harmful residues for human health accumulate in them. the aforementioned production centers were built without taking into account the protection of the environment, they dump their waste into the river, directly affecting the quality of the water and biodiversity. the washing of motor vehicles in the river, bathing domestic animals and the extraction of sand cause serious pollution that affects the quality of the water consumed by a large part of the population. the municipality is also affected by the deterioration of the soils, by the incidence of salinization that covers a territory of about 990 acres in the juan díaz valley, a situation that causes low production in the production of the banana crop, other aspects that impoverish the quality of the soils are made up of forest fires, which affect the vegetal layer. in addition, there is an increase in logging, pruning, burning and poaching within the protected area by usufructuaries of rustic farms and unscrupulous residents that, as an example, the author illustrates the sanction that the sagua ranger corps has had to apply through fines to offenders. the coffee depulpers constitute a center where wet and cherry coffee is processed until it is completely dry, in many cases the waste contaminates the waters of streams and rivers. 2.3 potentialities of general chemistry for the formation of the agricultural engineer for social / agricultural development and environmental balance chemistry constitutes a fundamental discipline within the career because of its importance for the understanding and mastery of subjects such as plant physiology, soil, plant nutrition, animal nutrition, the use of pesticides, the evaluation and protection of environment, among others; all essential for the professional future. the problem of the profession that is solved with the discipline lies in establishing the properties of the substances that allow them to be applied for quantitative determinations in agricultural samples, allowing them to achieve an optimal use of the bioproductive capacities of the species object of their work, in harmony with the environment, all of which also presupposes the systematic evaluation of the quality of the products obtained and the state of the ecosystem on which it acts for the production of agricultural proddoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.341 4 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 ucts that satisfy the needs of our society. the student must first carry out the observation related to the properties and functions of the chemical substances that appear in biotic and abiotic systems, and from there problem situations arise that must be solved by resorting to experimentation. in this way, it determines in practice the essential features that characterize the object with the use of procedures, techniques and analytical methods, to then make generalizations, which will later be applied to the solution of professional problems. one way to achieve the above is constituted by teaching tasks with a chemical-environmental professional orientation where the student systematizes and contextualizes the content, which allows them to seek ways and solutions to professional problems, also makes their study useful, necessary and essential for this profession develops in them responsible behaviors and equips them with the necessary tools for their future to act. environmental education with the subjects that interact with nature is considered important, to favor a conscious way of acting of these in their interaction with the environment and avoid the application of the law. the university center in town can influence this purpose because its students live throughout all the popular councils where these problems occur and they are workers of these entities. on several occasions there are floods in the lower areas of the municipality, it is crossed by ditches that in most cases are dirty, since the neighbors deposit in them waste from corrals, sewage water, garbage, heavy objects etc. in addition, some neighbors still cook with charcoal and sawdust, which pollutes the environment, when the river rises, the evacuation process is carried out an average of 12 times a year and when there is heavy rains, the ditches grow, penetrating homes and work centers. another element to consider is the impact that acid rains transported from moa by the northeast trade winds have on the sagua de tánamo environment, especially: sulfur trioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, among others, which when put into contact with water vapor in the atmosphere forms acids and falls as rain. 2.4 preparation of teaching activities in its preparation, it has been considered to address global, national and local environmental problems with an analysis of the problem so that it is meaningful, motivating and interesting to the student. in these activities the student is reminded and at the same time deepens in the study of problems such as the greenhouse effect, acid rain, deforestation, desertification, the importance of the ozonosphere; how we can take care of her, the international agreements signed for this purpose and compliance with these by the different countries and how then we influence locally with education, awareness and exemplification of the support staff in their behavior in defense of the relationship of man with his environment influencing irreversibly in sustainable development. each teaching activity has the same structure: they were outlined taking into account the title of each activity, the form of organization of teaching, place, objective, and variants in some cases. a total of 20 teaching tasks were projected, of which the first 12 were executed in teaching scenarios planned in a conference, the first of the tasks, 10 seminars and a practical class and the remaining 8 in non-teaching settings, all practical classes. generally the level of complexity and requirement of the activities; it grows as the number increases from lowest to highest, motivating the creative capacity of the student. the last activities require the student to integrate as many concepts as possible in solving problems that arise in the environment. other characteristics of the activities are summarized below: • they have a developing character. • they allow reflection, assessment, argumentation and lead to decision-making. • they allow the active participation of the student in the construction of values. • the content of the activity system is inclusive and allows the establishment of interdisciplinarity. • the environmental education curriculum strategy is carried out. title: waste from coffee pulping machines. a danger! form of organization: practical class. objective: to assess the procedure followed for the dumping of waste in an industry through observation and interviews with specialized personnel. for the economic-social development, the territory of sagua has 29 coffee depulping plants, however, they constitute polluting sources that are considered as main or extremely active. (1)-investigate with the manager of the coffee depulper closer to your home how and where the waste is dumped after processing the grain. (2)-visit the place where these wastes are going to stop and observe the security measures that are taken in these. make a report where you make an assessment according to the data obtained. (3)-make an informative mural where the security measures taken in the premises where this product is processed are reflected. (4)write a message to a student from another center where you express what efforts are necessary to make to doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.341 5 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 counteract the pollution of the river due to the irrational dumping of toxic and harmful substances in them. (5)-expose the work done in the workshop that will be done at the closing of the unit. 3. conclusions environmental education for sustainable development constitutes an important contribution to changes in the conception of man about himself, his place in the world and his relationship with nature, essential conditions for his training and professional exercise oriented to the sustainable development of the farming.chemistry, due to the potential offered by its contents, offers the possibility of training agronomists capable of becoming aware of their environment and gaining experience, forming values that allow them to act individually and collectively, to transform and solve current and future ecological problems. .the proposal of teaching tasks with a chemical-agricultural-environmental orientation contributes to perfecting scientific thinking that allows them, together with the development of professional skills, to actively guide themselves in the conception, execution and direction of the labor process where they will be inserted as future professionals. bibliographic references [1] transforming our world”: the 2030 agenda for sustainable development” united nations general assembly, september 25, 2015 [2] ministry of science, technology and environment., c.i.t.m.a., 1997. national environmental strategy. [3] castro, f. (1992). speech at the united nations conference on environment and development. rio de janeiro. havana. political editor. bibliography [1] blanco, j. (2004). inorganic chemistry 1 (i and ii). havana: editorial pueblo y educación, city of havana [2] castro, f, (2002). speech delivered at the millennium summit. (tabloid). [3] cuba. (1997) ministry of science, technology and environment. national strategy for environmental education. –– havana: citma unesco. [4] cuenca, g. (2008). environmental education towards an integrated approach to knowledge in the area of natural sciences. thesis option to the title of master in education sciences. isp ”josé de la luz y caballero”. holguin. [5] gligo, v. (2006). styles of development and environment in latin america, a quarter of a century later, cepal, sida, santiago de chile. [6] lara, a.r (1986). general chemistry. editorial. people and education. [7] león, a. (1991). rafael superior general chemistry. editorial pueblo y educación. havana. query text. [8] mc. pherson, m. () and others. environmental education in teacher training. editorial pueblo y educación, city of havana. [9] méndez, a. (2008). methodology for the teaching learning of biodiversity as a teaching research process, in the area of natural sciences, in high school. isp ”josé de la luz y caballero”. holguin [10] núñez, c. (2003). the education of environmental attitudes in students of the specialty of industrial chemistry in technical and professional education. thesis (doctor of pedagogical sciences). isp "josé de la luz y caballero". holguin. [11] núñez, j. and others. (2014) for what science, technology and society in universities? santiago de guayaquil catholic university. ecuador. [12] núñez, j. (1999). science and technology as social processes. editorial félix varela. havana. [13] ponjuan, a. (1986). inorganic chemistry. ed. people and education. havana. [14] proenza, j. (1998). curricular strategy to implement environmental education in the specialty of chemistry of the isp "blas roca caldario". in ii international congress of chemistry. havana. [15] valdez, o. (1996). environmental education in the educational teaching process in the mountains of cuba. thesis (doctor in pedagogical sciences,) havana. [16] zilberstein, j. (1991). biology 5: twelfth grade: textbook. part 1. editorial pueblo y educación. [17] official gazette of the republic of cuba. guidelines of the economic and social policy of the party and the revolution for the period 2016-2021. [18] núñez, j, (1994). science technology and society. in social problems of science: editorial. felix varela. havana. [19] núñez, j. (1999). science and technology as social processes. what science education should not forget. havana, editorial félix varela. [20] bayón m, (2002). environment. sustainable development and education, in education no 105, havana. [21] valdés, o. (2002). environmental education and protection of the environment. in education no 105, havana. [22] piñero, o. (2003). didactic alternative to favor the environmental dimension in the teaching of natural sciences in basic secondary. doctorate in pedagogical sciences. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.341 1 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.420 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae technical efficiency and technology gap ratio in cocoa production in nigeria: a stochastic metafrontier-tobit (sm-tobit) approach aminu, f. o.1* ayinde, i. a.2 1. department of agricultural technology, school of technology, yaba college of technology, epe campus, yaba, lagos state, nigeria 2. department of agricultural economics and farm management, federal university of agriculture, abeokuta, nigeria article info abstract article history received: 15 may 2021 accepted: 1 june 2021 published online: 31 july 2021 the study analysed the technical efficiency and technology gap ratio in cocoa production in nigeria. a multistage sampling technique was used to select 390 cocoa farmers from three zones where cocoa is commercially grown in nigeria. separate stochastic frontier models were estimated for farmers in kwara, edo and ondo states, along with a metafrontier model to obtain alternative estimates for the technical efficiencies of farmers in the different states. subsequently, a tobit model was used to access the factors influencing cocoa production in the study area. results revealed that, the average technical efficiency level was 0.685 for the pooled sample, 0.506, 0.837 and 0.713 for kwara, edo and ondo states respectively, suggesting that there is substantial scope to improve cocoa production in nigeria. the mean mtr values of 0.506, 0.837 and 0.712 for kwara, edo and ondo states respectively, implied that edo state was more technically efficient than other states in the study area. the mean technology gap ratio (tgr) value of 84.3% indicated that, on the average, the cocoa farmers in the study areas would have to close a gap of about 15.7% in order for them to be technically efficient. the study recommended that cocoa farmers in edo and ondo states could improve their technical efficiency through a better management using the available technologies and resources while intervention to raise technology that will help close the gap between the regional frontier curve and the global frontier curve through raising and distributing disease resistant and high yielding cocoa seedlings to the farmers should be adopted in kwara state. keywords: cocoa farmers metafrontier technical efficiency technology gap nigeria 1. introduction the contribution of cocoa to nigeria economy in the past cannot be easily overlooked. cocoa was first cultivated in the western region of nigeria in 1890. it was the most important agricultural export crop in nigeria during the 1950s and 1960s. its cultivation gained prominence rapidly in nigeria such that by 1965, nigeria became the second largest producer in the world (adegeye, 1998). cocoa was the main agricultural stake of nigeria economy until 1970’s when the crude oil was discovered in the country in commercial quantity and nigeria is now the world’s fourth largest producer of cocoa, after ivory coast, indonesia and ghana, and the third largest exporter, after ivory coast and ghana (becvarova and verter, 2014). cocoa is the single agricultural export commodity *corresponding author: aminu, f. o. department of agricultural technology, school of technology, yaba college of technology, epe campus, yaba, lagos state, nigeria; email: folaafe02@gmail.com 2 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 that has earned foreign exchange more than other crops, offers employment to many people, both directly and indirectly, and serves as an important source of raw materials, and source of revenue to governments of cocoa producing states (folayan et al., 2006). in 2007 and 2008, agricultural production contributed 41.9% and 37.8% to non-oil export out of which cocoa contributed 12.5% and 13.9% respectively (cbn, 2009). cocoa is a high value cash crop among farmers in the major producing areas in nigeria. in total, more than 20 million people depend directly on cocoa for their livelihood. approximately, 90% of the productions are exported in the form of beans or semi-manufactured cocoa products (taphee et al., 2015). in spite of the significance of cocoa to nigerian economy, its production in nigeria has witnessed a downward trend after 1971 season, when its export declined to 216,000 metric tons in 1976, and 150,000 metric tons in 1986, therefore reducing the country’s market share to about 6% and to fourth largest producer to date. in 2010, cocoa production accounted for only 0.3% of agricultural gdp. the decline in production according to oluyole and usman (2006) folayan et al., (2006) and cadoni (2013) could be attributed to the following causes; advent of the petroleum sector which led to the neglect of agriculture; policies and activities of the nigerian cocoa marketing board (ncmb) of 1978-1986; non-availability and high cost of cocoa production input; activities of middlemen; overaged and low yielding trees, non-remunerative prices; non-availability of farm labour; old agronomic practices, poor fertility status of cultivated land; and lack of credit to cocoa farmers. other factors are incidence of pests and diseases, use of fake and substandard agrochemicals, use of poor planting materials, poor handling of post-harvest processes and inefficient agricultural extension services which have resulted in inefficiencies that repress the development of cocoa production in the country. one of the major objectives of the cocoa farmers is to increase production on a sustainable basis at the farm level. management practices such as pruning, weeding and fertilizer and pesticide application is considered to be the most effective way to increase production. this is because a greater part of cocoa production is lost through weeds, pests and diseases on the farm (binam et al., 2008; dzene, 2010). for these reasons, efficiency has remained a significant topic of research especially in less developed countries where a larger proportion of the farmers are resource-poor (amos, 2007; binam et al., 2008; nkamleu et al., 2010). several studies (ogundari et al., 2006; amos, 2007 and popoola et al., 2015) have used the single step estimation of stochastic frontier production function to analyse the technical efficiency of cocoa production in the country but there is a paucity of empirical application of stochastic metafrontier-tobit function on cocoa production in nigeria. the meta-frontier approach developed by battese and rao (2002), battese et al., (2004) and o’donnell et al., (2008) is a useful concept when the aim of the analysis is to compare the efficiency of different groups (e.g., region, states, countries, plant varieties) when there is the suspicion that each group operate under different technologies and therefore their productive frontiers are different. if the production units under analysis make choices from different production possibilities sets then the common approach of estimating a single technology frontier will yield efficiency and productivity estimates that do not accurately measure the capacity of production units to transform inputs into outputs (o’donnell et al., 2008). the usual methods of dealing with these technology differences risk attributing “technology gaps” between farms to technical inefficiency. this framework has been used extensively in the literature to evaluate the efficiency in agricultural production (e.g., chen and song (2008), o’donnell et al., (2008), villano et al., (2010), otieno et al., (2014), henningsen et al., (2015), chebil et al., (2016)). the study will therefore adopt the sm-tobit approach to estimate the technical efficiency and technology gap ratio in cocoa production in nigeria. 2. methodology 2.1 study area the study was carried out in three geopolitical zones in nigeria. nigeria is made up of six geopolitical zones out of which cocoa is produced in exportable quantities in five geopolitical zones: south west, south south, south east, north central and north east. three zones (south west, south south and north central) representing 60percent of the cocoa producing zones in nigeria were selected for the study. these three zones were purposively chosen to give the study a nation-wide focus. however, the study was carried out in three states: ondo state (south west zone), edo state (south south zone) and kwara state (north central zone). 2.2 sampling procedure the respondents were selected through a multi-stage sampling technique. the first stage involved purposive selection of five out of six geo-political zones where cocoa is commercially grown in nigeria. in the second stage, stratified sampling technique was used to group the five cocoa producing geopolitical zones into high, medium and low zones. following nbs, (2012); national survey on doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.420 3 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 agricultural exportable commodities (nsaec), (2013), the zones are classified as high (south west), medium (south south) and low (south east, north central and north east). the third stage involved purposive selection of one state from each of the high, medium and low zones. these are ondo (high), edo (medium) and kwara (low). in the fourth stage, two agricultural zones were selected from each state through random sampling technique. the fifth stage involved the use of simple random sampling technique to select one local government area (lga) from each agricultural zone using the list of lgas available in the agricultural zone as sampling frame. in the sixth stage, five villages were randomly selected from each of the lgas giving a total of 30 villages. the basis of selection was the dominance of cocoa production in these villages. finally, in the seventh stage, a simple random sampling procedure was used in choosing 13 cocoa farmers from each of the 30 villages giving a total of 390 farmers for interview using the list of cocoa farmers from the agricultural zones as the sample frame. however, a total of 350 questionnaires (110 for kwara state; 118 for edo state and 122 for ondo state) were used for analyses as others were discarded due to incomplete information. the study was based on primary data collected by personal administration of questionnaire/interview schedule on individuals that are involved in cocoa production in the study areas. the respondents were asked questions germane to the achievement of the research objectives. 2.3 analytical framework the stochastic metafrontier-tobit (sm-tobit) method was used to assess the technical efficiency and its determinants by states in the study area. the use of a stochastic metafrontier-tobit function is a methodological improvement over the one-step stochastic frontier approach (sfa) because the metafrontier framework accounts for technology gaps and allows comparison of tes across heterogeneous groups such as production systems (battese and rao, 2002; villano et al., 2010). despite the wide number of empirical studies on technical efficiency, and the proliferation of methodological frontier studies, there is dearth of application of empirical study using stochastic metafrontier-tobit function on cocoa production in nigeria. estimation of the sm-tobit involves three stages. first, the sfa (aigner et al, 1977; meeusen and van den broeck, 1977) was used to investigate tes across the production systems. in the second stage, a metafrontier (battese and rao, 2002) was estimated to adjust the te scores from sfa, taking into account any technology differences. finally, a tobit model was applied to assess variations in the te scores obtained from the metafrontier estimation. the parameters of the stochastic frontiers for the three regions were estimated using the cobb-douglas (cd) specification where all the descriptive variables were included in the z-vector as possible determinants of inefficiency. thus, the model is specified as: (1) where qn(k) is the yield of cocoa in kg/ha; xni represents a vector of inputs where xn1 is area cultivated to cocoa in hectares, xn2 is hired labour use (workdays/ ha), xn3 is family labour use (workdays/ha), xn4 is age of farm (years), while xn5 is fertilizer (kg/ha) and xn6 is pesticide use (gramme a.i/ha)); v represents statistical noise, and u denotes technical inefficiency. z denotes the vector of socio-demographic and other independent variables assumed to influence efficiency where z1 is sex of farmer (1-male, 0female), z2 is age (years), z3 is educational level (years), z4 is household size (no of people), z5 is extension visit (dummy), z6 is cocoa variety (dummy) and z7 is health hazard; is a vector of inefficiency parameters to be estimated; v represents statistical noise, and u denotes technical inefficiency. the next stage involved the estimation of a pooled stochastic frontier and the possible determinants of inefficiency and the metafrontier-tobit model specified as (2) (3) where and θk are the latent and observed values of the metafrontier te scores, respectively; z denotes the vector of socio-demographic and other independent variables assumed to influence efficiency where z1 is sex of farmer (1-male, 0female), z2 is age (years), z3 is educational level (years), z4 is household size (no of people), z5 is extension visit (dummy), z6 is cocoa variety (dummy) and z7 is health hazardand e is the random term. the parameters of the stochastic frontiers were obtained by using frontier 4.1 software (coelli, 1996). the linear programming, to estimate metafrontier and bootstrapping of standard errors were undertaken in shazam version 10 (whistler et al., 2007), while stata version 11 (statacorp, 2009) was used for the tobit analysis. 3. results and discussion 3.1 summary statistics of variables included in the sfa and mf model the summary statistics in table 1 display the mean values of the explanatory variables in the model. edo state doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.420 4 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 had the highest mean amount of cocoa output and pesticide usage over the specified period. between the other two states, ondo state earned more in terms of their cocoa output and pesticide usage when compared to kwara state. ondo state had the highest farm size, employed the highest number of labour and had the oldest farms while edo state had the youngest farms among the study areas. kwara state had the least farm size but had the highest usage of fertilizer inputs when compared with edo and ondo states. from the pooled data, an average cocoa farmer has 6.82 hectares’ land area cultivated to cocoa employs 5 agricultural labour that works for 205 mandays and 3 family labour that works for 81 mandays, applies 1,016kg of chemical fertilizer and 8776 gram active ingredients of pesticide. this generates 1,219kg of cocoa output in the specified period. this reflects that cocoa production is being practiced on a medium scale in the study area. 3.2 production function estimates by states and determinants of technical efficiency of cocoa production across the states the null hypothesis that there are no technical efficiency effects in the models was tested using a likelihood ratio (lr) test of one-sided error. the result from the hypothesis suggests that the inefficiency effects were present in all the models and so the decision to preclude them was rejected as the lr test statistics of 78.22, 72.03, 85.60 and 56.19 for kwara, edo, ondo states and the pooled data respectively, are all greater than the critical lr chi-square value 30.60. the single-stage maximum likelihood procedure of the frontier 4.1 program (coelli 1996) was used to estimate the parameters of the stochastic frontiers (maximum attainable output) for each state (table 2) and for the pooled data (table 5). the study reveals that the gamma estimate which measures the deviation of the observed output from the frontier output is estimated to be 0.97, 0.89, 0.92 and 0.60 for kwara, edo, ondo states and the pooled data, respectively. this implies that in all the models, most of the deviations in the total output are largely as a result of the inefficiency in input use and other farm practices, whilst the random factors which may include unfavourable weather conditions, pest and disease infestation, statistical errors in data measurement and the model specification contribute 3%, 11%, 8% and 40%, in kwara, edo, ondo and the pooled data respectively to the deviations of the actual output from the frontier output. kwara state estimate of the parameters of the stochastic frontier model in table 2 reveals that the coefficients of farm size (p<0.01) and fertilizer (p<0.01) were positive and significant. this implies that an increase in the area cultivated to cocoa production and fertilizer usage would increase cocoa output in the state. family labour (p<0.05) and age of trees (p<0.05) had negative significant relationship with cocoa output in kwara state. this implies that a percentage increase in number of family labour used and age of trees will reduce cocoa output by 0.080kg and 0.130kg respectively. the negative effect of the tree age implies that as most of the cocoa trees increase in age, their output falls. the result supports the findings of gray (2001) and onumah et al., (2013) that the negative influence of cocoa tree age is a signal for producers to replace old trees with new ones. the result of the inefficiency model reveals that inefficiency in cocoa production in the state decreases with sex table 1. summary statistics of variables included in the sfa and mf model states cocoa output farm size (ha) hired labour (md.) family labour (md.) age of trees (years) fertilizer (kg) pesticide (gm./ai./ha) kwara mean 1112.00 3.62 108.6 75.9 35.42 1234.0 5212.8 std. deviation 393.03 0.33 52.03 22.13 7.10 389.80 833.62 edo mean 1294.30 6.17 185.1 92.6 23.70 734.9 10130.8 std. deviation 1508.99 1.30 48.31 35.75 8.16 202.86 754.62 ondo mean 1250.82 10.13 303.9 54.6 37.19 987.4 8884.8. std. deviation 1255.73 8.78 94.88 13.48 12.04 257.38 798.27 pooled mean 1219.04 6.82 204.6 81.84 32.79 1016.2 8775.9 std. deviation 1154.66 5.21 73.52 18.72 10.10 475.25 935.98 source: authors’ compilation doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.420 5 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 table 2. production function estimates and determinants of technical efficiency of cocoa production across the states variable coefficient kwara state edo state ondo state constant β0 7.191*** (11.93) 4.761***(5.63) 5.810*** (16.7) ln farm size β1 1.143***(9.281) 0.327***(3.075) 0.012***(10.29) ln hired labour β2 0.094(1.486) 1.156(0.983) -0.04***(-2.74) ln family labour β3 -0.080**(-2.303) -0.141(-1.541) 0.670(1.497) ln tree age β4 -0.130**(-2.044) 0.171***(3.041) -0.052**(-2.06) ln fertilizer β5 0.013***(3.372) 0.032***(2.957) 0.139***(4.852) ln pesticide β6 -0.067(-1.048) 0.134**(2.257) 0.014***(4.041) inefficiency effects constant δ0 -0.293(-0.401) 0.668(0.839) 2.799(7.510) sex δ1 -0.292**(-2.021) -0.218(-1.098) 0.061(0.105) age δ2 0.020***(3.355) 0.004**(2.497) -0.11***(-2.59) education δ3 -0.003(-0.538) -0.024(-0.738) 0.106**(2.162) household size δ4 0.021(0.115) -0.315(-1.197) -0.244(-0.504) extension visits δ5 0.015(0.221) -0.006**(-2.253) -0.87***(-7.79) variety δ6 0.131(0.432) -0.071**(-2.251) 0.057(0.620) sigma-squared σ2 0.072***(4.025) 0.311***(5.913) 0.622***(2.560) gamma 0.97(20.592) 0.89(9.150) 0.92(13.558) *** = significant at 1% (∝ 0.01) ** =significant at 5% (∝0.05)figures in parenthesis are tvalues of the farmers as it was negative and significant at 5% alpha level. this implies that male farmers were more technically efficient that their female counterpart in the state. this result confirms the findings of onumah et al., (2013) who submitted that female farmers were unlikely to be chanced to attend the agricultural extension meetings because of the household chores. age of the cocoa farmers was positive and significant at 1% alpha level. this implies that inefficiency increases with the age of the farmers implying that younger farmers were more technically efficient than the older ones. the reason for this is that the younger farmers are more active and receptive of innovation than the older ones. similar result was reported by mariano et al., (2010). the estimate of the sigma-square is significantly different from zero at one percent level, attesting to the goodness of fit of the model. edo state the study reveals that farm size (p<0.01), age of trees (p<0.01), fertilizer (p<0.01) and pesticide (p<0.05) had a positive influence on cocoa output in edo state. this indicates that a 1% increase in the usage of these inputs will increase cocoa output by 0.33 kg, 0.17 kg, 0.03 kg and 0.13 kg respectively. the positive and significant influence of age of trees in the state implies that the cocoa trees in the state were still young and within their productive years. the result of the inefficiency model for the state reveals that age of the cocoa farmers increases technical inefficiency at 5% alpha level. this implies that the younger farmers were more technically efficient than the older ones. ajayi and adeyemi (2016) reported that older farmers are generally risks averse and attached to traditional ways of farming leading to inefficiency in their farm operations. extension visits (p<0.05) reduce inefficiency of cocoa farmers in the state. this implies that cocoa farmers who were visited frequently by the extension agents were more technically efficient than those visited few times. this finding agrees with the findings of balogun et al., (2011) who reported that extension work is a prerequisite for dissemination and adoption of agricultural innovations for improved efficiency. variety of cocoa planted (p<0.05) was also found to reduce inefficiency of cocoa production as it was negative and significant at 5% alpha level. this implies that the cocoa farmers that planted more of hybrid variety were more technically efficient than the farmers that planted the local variety alone. the estimate of the sigma-square for edo state is also significantly different from zero at one percent level, attesting to the goodness of doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.420 6 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 fit of the model. ondo state farm size (p<0.01), fertilizer (p<0.01) and pesticide (p<0.01) had positive significant influence on cocoa output in ondo state. this implies than an increase in the usage of these inputs will increase cocoa output in the state. conversely hired labour (p<0.01) and age of trees (p<0.05) had negative significant influence on cocoa production in ondo state. the negative influence of hired labour implies that a percentage increase in number of people employed to work on cocoa farms in the state would reduce cocoa output by 0.06kg. this result disagrees with binam et al., (2008); nkamleu et al., (2010) and onumah et al., (2013) that labour increases cocoa output. the negative influence of age of cocoa trees is a pointer to the fact that majority of cocoa trees in the state were old and beyond their productive age leading to reduced efficiency. the results of the inefficiency model reveal that age of the farmers was negative and significant at 1% level. this implies that older cocoa farmers were more technically efficient compared to the younger ones. the reason for this according to onumah et al., (2013) could be that cocoa production is the only occupation engaged in by the older farmers, to which they devote more time and attention compared to the younger farmers who may have other engagements such as trading, artisan activities etc. extension visits (p<0.01) was also found to decrease inefficiency in cocoa production in the state. this is an indication that farmers were attentive at the training sessions organised by the extension agents. onumah et al., (2013) posited that cocoa farmers’ production efficiency improves with effective extension visits and supervision. contrary to the a priori expectation, educational level (p<0.05) of the farmers had a positive significant relationship with inefficiency in the state. this suggests that highly educated cocoa farmers were less efficient than those with lower level of education. the level of education could denote engagement in cocoa production as secondary education; thereby influencing farmers’ technical efficiency. this result is in line with nyagaka et al., (2010) and onumah et al., (2013) that formal education may not necessarily improve one’s technical efficiency but the level of one’s knowledge and education pertaining to the practices of cocoa production matters. table 3 demonstrates that cocoa production in edo state and the pooled data exhibit increasing returns to scale of 1.679 and 1.24 indicating that a percentage increase in all inputs will result in a 1.68% and 1.24% increase in the level of output. this implies that these study areas were in stage one of the production process where increases in the level of all inputs used in production results in a more than the proportionate increase in output. this is an indication that there is more room for the states to expand their scale to increase production in the long run, subject to good quality input usage. kwara state and ondo state cocoa production, on the contrary, exhibits a decreasing return to scale of 0.973 and 0.719 which imply that a 1% increase in all inputs used in production will result to a less than proportionate increase in output. table 3. production elasticities and return to scale in the study areas variable kwara state edo state ondo state pooled farm size 1.143 0.327 0.012 0.688 hired labour 0.094 1.156 -0.064 -0.025 family labour -0.080 -0.141 0.670 0.064 age of farm -0.130 0.171 -0.052 0.411 fertilizer 0.013 0.032 0.139 0.047 pesticide -0.067 0.134 0.014 0.055 rts 0.973 1.679 0.719 1.24 3.3 production function estimates and determinants of technical efficiency of the pooled and metafrontier data results from the pooled stochastic and metafrontier data are presented in table 4. pooled data results from the pooled data reveal that farm size (p<0.01), fertilizer (p<0.01) and pesticide (p<0.01) had positive significant influence on cocoa output in all the study areas. this implies that a percentage increase in the use of these inputs would increase cocoa output by 9.17kg, 6.75kg and 2.99kg respectively. age of trees (p<0.05) however, had negative significant influence on cocoa output in the study areas. this implies that a year increase in the age of cocoa trees will reduce cocoa output by 2.11kg in all the study areas. this result is in consonance with onumah et al., (2013) that technical efficiency of cocoa production reduces with age of the cocoa trees. the results of the inefficiency model for the pooled data reveal that sex (p<0.01), age (p<0.05) and household size (p<0.05) reduce inefficiency of cocoa farmers in the study areas. the inverse relationship of sex with inefficiency of cocoa farmers implies that the female cocoa farmers were more technically inefficient when compared to their male counterparts’ in the study areas. this result is in consonance with binam et al., (2008) and onumah et al., (2013). the negative influence of age implies that doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.420 7 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 younger farmers were more technically inefficient than older farmers in the study area. this result disagrees with mariano et al., (2010) who reported that older farmers produce with more inefficiencies compared to younger farmers. household size of the cocoa farmers also had an indirect relationship with inefficiency. this indicates that cocoa farmers with large household size were more technically efficient than the small household sized cocoa farmers in the study area. this could be attributed to possibility of availability of household/family labour input. the estimate of the sigma-square is significantly different from zero at one percent level, attesting to the goodness of fit of the model. this also implies that the frontier model is stochastic (rather than deterministic). moreover, the estimated value of gamma is significantly different from zero at 1%, implying that 60 percent of the discrepancies between the observed value of cocoa output and the frontier output can be attributed to factors within the cocoa farmers’ control. metafrontier model after the estimation of the individual spf’s, it is necessary to verify if the three states share the same technology. if the three states share the same production frontier (i.e., no significant difference between the single region frontiers), then there would be no reason for estimating the pooled mf production model. this can be done with a likelihood ratio test (lr). the lr statistic is given by (4) where l(h0) is the value of the log likelihood function for a stochastic frontier estimated by pooling the data for all states and l(ha) is the sum of the values of the log-likelihood functions from the individual spf’s. the analysis showed that the value of the lr statistic is 157.62 which is highly significant and implies that the null hypothesis was rejected. the result suggests that the three regional stochastic frontiers for cocoa production in the study areas were not the same, implying that production structure and technology adoption were different among the three states. hence, the meta-frontier technique is the appropriate estimation approach for this study and that any efficiency comparison among these states should be undertaken with respect to the meta-frontier instead of the pooled stochastic frontier. similar results have been obtained by battese et al., (2004); binam et al., (2008); mariano et al., (2010); moreira and bravo-ureta (2010); onumah et al., (2013) among others. the metafrontier result indicates that an increase in the table 4. production function estimates and determinants of technical efficiency of the pooled and metafrontier data variable coefficient pooled (sfa) metafrontier-tobit constant β0 5.789*** (20.207 ) 1.038***(3.963) farm size β1 0.688***(9.171) 0.085**(2.180) hired labour β2 -0.025(-1.597) -0.142(-1.413) family labour β3 0.064(1.167) -0.421***(-5.034) age of trees β4 -0.411**(-2.110) -0.330***(-2.931) fertilizer β5 0.047***(6.749) 0.606***(3.956) pesticide β6 0.055***(2.992) 0.333***(5.590) inefficiency effects constant δ0 0.050**(-2.298) 1.038***(5.963) sex δ1 -0.065***(-3.251) -0.285(-0.662) age δ2 -0.115**(-2.279) -0.004***(-2.555) education δ3 -0.155(-0.624) -0.003(-0.222) household size δ4 -0.941**(-2.122) 0.843***(3.671) extension contact δ5 0.018(0.785) 0.045***(3.423) variety δ6 0.192(1.489) -1.014**(-2.306) sigma-squared σ2 0.511***(3.554) gamma 0.602***(4.900) *** =significant at 1% (∝ 0.01) ** = significant at 5% (∝0.05) * = significant at 10% (∝0.10) figures in parenthesis are t-values doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.420 8 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 area of land cultivated to cocoa (p<0.05), increase in the use of fertilizer (p<0.01) and pesticide (p<0.01) would lead to significant improvement in cocoa output while the use of more family labour (p<0.01) and increase in the age of cocoa trees would reduce cocoa output by 5.03kg and 2.93kg respectively. these results except the result on family labour agree with the findings of binam et al., (2008), nkamleu et al., (2010) and onumah et al., (2013). it should be noted that in stochastic frontier estimation, the parameter for inefficiency level usually enters the model as the dependent variable in the inefficiency effects component of the model. this, therefore, means that a negative sign of the coefficient of a variable in the z-vector implies that the corresponding variable would reduce inefficiency (or increase efficiency). on the contrary, a positive sign of the coefficient of a z-variable is interpreted as potentially having a negative influence on efficiency (brummer and loy, 2000; coelli et al., 2005; otieno et al., 2014; bahta et al., 2015). as indicated in chen and song (2008), a straightforward interpretation of regression parameters is available from the two-stage tobit estimation since the dependent variable used in the subsequent tobit model is the technical efficiency score obtained from optimization in the metafrontier estimation. therefore, a positive value on a coefficient in the metafrontier-tobit model infers that increases in the associated variable would increase efficiency (wooldridge, 2002). the observed statistical differences in cocoa production among the study areas suggests, as indicated by battese et al., (2004), otieno et al., (2014), and bahta et al., (2015) that the pooled stochastic frontier is inappropriate for policy application and are only presented for completeness of the analysis. therefore, subsequent discussion focuses on the variables that are significant in the metafrontier-tobit model. variety of cocoa planted and frequency of extension visits were found to be significant in the metafrontier-tobit model, but not in the pooled stochastic frontier, while sex was significant in the pooled stochastic frontier but not significant in the metafrontier-tobit model. the result of the metafrontier-tobit shows that age of the cocoa farmers increases inefficiency as the coefficient of age (p<0.01) of the cocoa farmers was negative and statistically significant. this implies that younger cocoa farmers were more efficient than older farmers in the study areas. the reason for this is that younger farmers are more educated, exposed, knowledgeable, receptive of innovations and willing to take risks more than the aged farmers. aminu and hassan (2016) reported that older farmers are more risk averse and are therefore, reluctant to adopting innovation. this result is consistent with mariano et al., (2010) that older farmers produce with more inefficiencies compared to younger farmers. variety (p<0.05) of the cocoa planted also had negative significant relationship with inefficiency of cocoa farmers in the study area. these means that these variables increase inefficiency of cocoa farmers in the study areas. variety of cocoa implies that farmers who planted the local variety were less technically efficient than farmers who planted the hybrid variety. conversely, household size (p<0.01) and extension contact (p<0.01) had a direct relationship with inefficiency under the metafrontier-tobit model. these imply large household size and frequents visits from extension agents increase efficiency of cocoa farmers in the study areas. technical efficiency and technology gap ratio (tgr) the values of the tgr, te measures for the spf and with respect to the mf are summarized in table 5. the tgr values represent the distance between the meta frontier and the regional efficiency frontier for a given vector of inputs. a higher (lower) tgr value implies a smaller (larger) technology gap between the individual frontier and the mf. a tgr value of 100% is equivalent to a point where a regional frontier coincides with the mf. the study reveals that the mean technical efficiencies from the stochastic frontier models were estimated to be 0.646, 0.95 and 0.828 for kwara, edo and ondo states respectively. these imply that cocoa production in kwara, edo and ondo states were 35.4%, 5% and 17.2% below their group frontier. technical efficiency scores from the pooled data ranges from 0.3602 to 1.000 with a mean of 0.8079 indicating that cocoa production in the study areas produces about 81 percent of the potential output given the technology available in the country. this result demonstrates that improving the managerial skills and technical capacity of farmers without adding any input can help increase cocoa output by up to 19 percent. edo state is relatively the most technically efficient state while kwara state is the least efficient. weather conditions, pest and diseases, imperfect competition, financial constraints, lack of improved crop varieties, etc., may cause a farmer not to be operating at optimal level (nkamleu et al., 2010; onumah et al., 2013). estimates of the technology gap ratios (tgr) reveals that the study areas had a mean potential ratio of 0.795, 0.880 and 0.854 in kwara, edo and ondo states respectively. the values of the tgrs indicate that if cocoa producers in the three states were technically efficient, they could have increased the output by closing a gap of 20.5%, 12% and 14.6% respectively. the tgr gap for the mean producer was much smaller in edo and ondo states, ranging from 12% to 14.6%, indicating that the extant doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.420 9 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 technologies in these states were near the possibilities’ frontier of the meta-technology. estimate of the pooled tgr ranges from 0.179 to 1.000 with a mean of 0.843. this implies that, on the average, the cocoa farmers in the study areas would have to close a gap of about 15.7% in order for them to be technically efficient. kwara state had the lowest productivity potential ratio. this suggests that even if all cocoa producers from kwara state achieved best practice with respect to the technology observed in their state, they will still be lagging behind because the technology in kwara state lags behind regional technology with a tgr of 0.795. this implies that even if the mean cocoa producer in kwara state were fully technically efficient (i.e., producing on the national efficiency frontier), he/she would still need to increase output by about 21 percent if he/she adopted the most efficient meta-technology in the state. nkamleu et al., (2010) obtained a similar result for cameroon in their study on technology gap and efficiency in cocoa production. edo state had the highest technology gap ratios (0.880) when compared with other states, indicating that the technologies in edo state were closer to the possibilities’ frontier of the meta-technology than kwara and ondo states. this further implies that if all factors were held constant, the producers in edo state would reach the maximum potential output for cocoa production in the study areas faster than the other states. the mean technical efficiency scores for cocoa production in the study areas relative to the meta-frontier are 0.506, 0.837 and 0.712 for kwara, edo and ondo states respectively. this indicates that edo state is more technically efficient than other states in the study areas. an interesting point to note is the difference between the average technical efficiency scores from the national and the meta frontier models. for example, the average technical efficiency for kwara relative to the meta technology is 50.6%, while its mean efficiency is quite large with respect to its own national frontier (64.6%). the differences between the two efficiency scores confirm the inappropriateness of the technical efficiencies obtained by using the sfa, relative to the technology available for cocoa production in the study areas. 4. conclusions and recommendations the cocoa farmers exhibited above average efficiency in cocoa production implying that farmers were knowledgeable about cocoa production techniques. however, the technology gap ratio of kwara state (which is the lowest) confirms the need for the cocoa farmers in the state to step up technology drive for increased cocoa technical efficiency. based on the findings from the stochastic and metafrontier analysis, the study recommends that: 1) the intervention to raise technology (to close the gap between the regional frontier curve and the global frontier curve) should be adopted in kwara state. this could be done by raising and distributing disease resistant and high yielding cocoa seedlings to the farmers. edo and ondo states could improve their performance through better management using the available technologies and resources. 2) since the cocoa farmers in the study areas are not realizing their full production potential, there is a need table 5. technical efficiency scores and technology gap ratios (tgr) states sfa-te mf-te tgr kwara mean 0.6461 0.5064 0.7947 std. deviation 0.1141 0.0859 0.1304 minimum 0.3602 0.2964 0.4593 maximum 0.9993 0.6963 1.0000 edo mean 0.9495 0.8369 0.8804 std. deviation 0.7448 0.1086 0.0838 minimum 0.6891 0.5261 0.6461 maximum 1.000 1.0000 0.9970 ondo mean 0.8281 0.7125 0.8541 std. deviation 0.0889 0.1742 0.1762 minimum 0.5501 0.1078 0.1787 maximum 1.000 0.9258 1.0000 pooled mean 0.8079 0.6852 0.8431 std. deviation 0.1561 0.1872 0.1397 minimum 0.3602 0.1078 0.1787 maximum 1.000 1.0000 1.0000 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.420 10 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 03 | september 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 for sustained improvements on performance through enhanced roles by the government in educating farmers and planting of younger trees to replace aging ones, which will significantly raise technical efficiency. references [1] adegeye s. o. 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[4] aminu, f.o. and hassan, t.i. climate change and arable crop production: a case of epe local government area of lagos state, nigeria. in onigemo, m.a., bolarinwa, j.b., godonu, k.g., jaji, m.f.o., asafa, a.r. and okeowo, t.a, (eds.). revamping nigerian agriculture through public-private sector synergy. proceedings of 2nd international conference of school of agriculture lagos state polytechnic, held at lagos state polytechnic, ikorodu, lagos state, nigeria. 18th-21st april, 2016. pg. 103-112. [5] amos, t.t. (2007). an analysis of productivity and technical efficiency of smallholder cocoa farmers in nigeria. journal of social sciences. 15(2):127-133. [6] balogun, o. l., adeoye, a., yusuf, s. a., akinlade, r. j.and carim-sanni, a (2011). production efficiency of farmers under national fadama ii project in oyo state, nigeria. international journal of agricultural management and development, 2(1): 11-24. [7] bahta, s., baker, d., malope, p. and katjiuongua, h. 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(2008): technical efficiency and productivity potential of cocoa farmers in west africa countries. the developing economics, 3: 242-263. [12] brummer, b., loy, j.p. (2000). the technical efficiency impact of farm credit programmes: a case study in northern germany. journal of agricultural economics, 51(3), 405-418. [13] cadoni p. (2013). analysis of incentives and disincentives for cocoa in nigeria. technical notes series, mafap, fao, rome. [14] cbn. (2009). annual reports and statistical bulletin 2008. abuja: central bank of nigeria. [15] chebil1, a., abdelaziz a. h., alawia, o. h., ishtiag a., izzat, t., solomon, a. and ouambi, y. (2016). metafrontier analysis of technical efficiency of wheat farms in sudan. journal of agricultural science, 8 (2): 179-186. [16] chen, z. and song, s. (2008). efficiency and technology gap in china’s agriculture: a regional metafrontier analysis. china economic review, 19(2):287296. [17] coelli, t.j. (1996). a guide to frontier version 4.1: a computer program for frontier production function estimation. cepa working paper 96/07. school of economics, university of new england, armidale. [18] coelli, t., rao, d. s. p., battese, g. e. (2005). an introduction to efficiency and productivity analysis, second edition, kluwer academic publishers, boston. [19] dzene r. (2010): what drives efficiency on the ghanaian cocoa farm? ghana institute of management and public administration (gimpa), accra. [20] folayan, j.a., daramola, g.a., oguntade, a.e. (2006): structure and performance evaluation of cocoa marketing institutions in south-western nigeria: an economic analysis. journal of food, agriculture and environment 4(2):123-128. [21] gray a. (2001): the world cocoa market outlook. lmc international ltd., ghana. [22] henningsen, a., daniel, f. m., anwar, s. a., joseph, a. k, and tomasz, g. c. 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(1977). efficiency estimation from cobb-douglas production function with composed error. international economic review, 18 (3): 435-444. [25] moreira v.h., bravo-ureta b.e. (2010). technical efficiency and metatechnology ratios for dairy farms in three southern cone countries: a stochastic metafrontier model. journal of productivity analysis, 33: 33-45. [26] national survey on agricultural exportable commodities (nsaec) (2013): collaborative survey conducted by national bureau of statistics, central bank of nigeria, federal ministry of agriculture & rural development and federal ministry of trade & investment. may, 2013. [27] nbs national bureau of statistics (2012), lsms: integrated surveys on agriculture: general household survey panel, 2010/11. [28] nkamleu, g.b., nyameck, j. and gockowski, j. 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(2010). ‘when is meta frontier analysis appropriate? an example of varietal differences in pistachio production in iran. journal of agricultural science and technology, 12(4):379-389. [38] whistler, d., white, k.j., bates, d., 2007. shazam econometrics software and user’s reference manual version 10. northwest econometrics, ltd., vancouver, http://shazam.econ.ubc.ca/. [39] wooldridge, j. m., 2002. econometric analysis of cross section and panel data, mit press, massachusetts. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i3.420 10 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.449 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae study on the ecological circulation agricultural system of combining planting and raising of berry tea defang cao1 xiuju zhang2* shengyuan mo3 guihua luo1 zhengfang qin4 hanfeng qin5 1. hunan pinhao ecological agriculture co., ltd., changsha, 410142, china 2. institute of agricultural environment and ecology, hunan academy of agricultural sciences, changsha, 410125, china 3. agriculture and rural department of hunan province, changsha, 410005, china 4. zhangjiajie bureau of agriculture and rural affairs, zhangjiajie, 427000, china 5. hunan dengfeng agriculture and forestry technology co., ltd., zhangjiajie, 427000, china article info abstract article history received: 09 august 2021 accepted: 15 september 2021 published online: 30 september 2021 berry tea is a perennial vine. its scientific name is ampelopsis grossedentata. it belongs to vitaceae and is widely spread in the tujia people of xiangxi, hunan province. by adopting appropriate agricultural planting technology, rational use of organic selenium fertilizer and nutritional conditioner, we can produce high-quality berry tea with more healthy and even medicinal value and high selenium content, and realize double protection of human health with high selenium content and high flavonoids. under the existing planting system, through the supplement of breeding links, constructing ecological recycling agricultural system combining planting and raising, not only can greatly enrich the supply of table agricultural products, but also can effectively ensure the high quality and high safety of agricultural products, and can effectively enrich the local agricultural industrial structure. keywords: berry tea selenium-enriched ecological agriculture industrial revitalization economic development 1. brief introduction to the basic situation of berry tea berry tea is a perennial vine. its scientific name is ampelopsis grossedentata. it belongs to vitaceae and is widely spread in the tujia people of xiangxi, hunan province, and has a history of more than 700 years of use [1]. it is a traditional and national medicinal and edible plant, which can be taken orally and externally. berry tea contains 17 kinds of amino acids necessary for the human body such as leucine, isosine, methionine and 14 kinds of trace elements such as potassium, calcium, iron, zinc, magnesium, especially rich in highly active flavonoids and dihydromyricetin [2,3]. berry tea is called “mold tea” because the cells are broken during the processing and the flavonoids contained in the cells penetrate to the surface to form a layer of “hoarfrost”, resembling white mold, so it is called “mold tea”. it was renamed “berry tea”, with the beautiful and poetic meaning and essence of nature. it has been tested and identified by 16 national medical authorities that the plant contains a natural plant cream whose active ingredients are mainly flavonoids, containing 12.8~13.8 flavonoid crude protein, the average content of total flavonoids is ≥6%, and the highest detected content is 9.37%. it has the highest content of flavonoids in all plants found so far, so it is called the “king of flavonoids”. *corresponding author: xiuju zhang institute of agricultural environment and ecology, hunan academy of agricultural sciences, china email: 13908477381@163.com 11 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 flavonoids are called “vascular scavengers” by the medical community. they have great effects on preventing cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. however, the metabolism of flavonoids in the body is very fast, and the human body cannot synthesize it by itself, so it needs to be taken from the outside frequently [4,5]. and berry tea is therefore also called the “king of tea”. the flavonoids contained in berry tea can sterilize and anti-inflammatory, clear heat and detoxify, relieve pain and swelling, moisturize the throat and relieve cough, reduce lipids and blood pressure, and improve the body’s immunity. it is useful for treating upper respiratory tract infections and chronic pharyngitis, bronchitis, and regulating the gastrointestinal tract. berry tea can also effectively discharge harmful acid peptides and ketones in the human body, discharge blood scales, regulate blood lipids and blood pressure, soften blood vessels, regulate renal tubular reabsorption, and improve sleep. frequent urination, can inhibit platelet aggregation, anti-thrombotic and anti-tumor, and have obvious therapeutic effects on neurological diseases [6]. the flavonoids contained in berry tea can sterilize and anti-inflammatory, clear heat and detoxify, relieve pain and swelling, reduce blood lipids and blood pressure, moisten the throat and relieve cough, regulate and improve human immunity. it has a strong ability to kill staphylococcus aureus, streptococcus a/b, dicoccus pneumoniae and influenza bacillus, etc. [7,8]. according to the identification of the national authority, berry tea contains high flavonoids and has a wide range of uses. it can be used to extract pharmaceutical products and benefit all mankind. the relevant departments and experts of this project are studying and entering the clinical trial stage. the main area of the hunan berry tea planting is located in the natural selenium-rich soil belt of hunan province, but the natural selenium content of the soil is mainly in the form of mineral selenium. the organic selenium content in the soil is relatively low, and the amount that crops can be absorbed, transformed and enriched is also relatively low, so there are still fewer agricultural products that meet the national selenium-rich standard, and the selenium-rich berry tea is relatively rare. by adopting appropriate agricultural planting techniques and rational use of organic selenium fertilizers and nutritional conditioning agents, high-quality berry tea with high selenium content with more health and even medicinal value can be produced, and the human body health protection with high selenium and high flavonoids can be achieved. under the leadership and support of hunan provincial department of agriculture and rural affairs, hunan academy of agricultural sciences and zhangjiajie municipal government, researchers took samples and inspected the berry tea test base in fuping village, sangzhi county, zhangjiajie city. the total flavonoids reached 2.83%, the content of dihydromyricetin is as high as 41.4%, and the selenium content is as high as 0.39 mg/kg. the overall quality is very good, and it has great market prospects and competitiveness. 2. shortcomings and deficiencies of the current industry status 2.1 the single industry restricting the potential for economic development the berry tea-producing area in hunan has a good natural ecology in the countryside, with beautiful scenery, and it has the potential and characteristics to develop the function of agricultural ecological consumption. however, through investigations, it is found that these places are generally planted with a single structure and cannot provide sufficient supply of high-quality and abundant edible agricultural products. this is very unfavorable for the development of the rural ecological consumption industry. the single berry tea planting and processing industry is not enough to cultivate and build the attractiveness of customers’ short-term leisure and even permanent residence. this will severely restrict the space and stamina for further development of the local economy. in addition, the sale of a single agricultural product is also difficult to further expand the overall economic scale of the local area. 2.2 wasting resource and affecting environmental quality the planting area of berry tea in hunan province has expanded year by year, and the total area has reached hundreds of thousands of mu (a unit of area, =0.0667 hectares). the total amount of residues after the normal harvest of berry tea each year is cumulative. these residues, such as the old yellow leaves and pruning branches after autumn frost, still contain very high flavonoids and other precious substances, which are also very precious resources. however, these resources are discarded as waste and have not been properly developed. many of them are directly used in the natural environment, causing relatively serious damage to the natural ecological environment, affecting the quality of the ecological environment of the production area, and also a huge waste of resources. 3. the advantages and necessity of building an ecological recycling agricultural system around the berry tea industry with the development and growth of the berry tea indoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.449 12 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 dustry and the rise and rapid development of the cultural tourism and health care industry closely integrated with it, there will be a large number of waste resources, such as berry tea leaves, kitchen wastes, human and animal excrement. the total amount of these waste resources increases with the development of the entire industry. if these waste resources are not properly treated, they will inevitably cause huge damage to the entire ecological environment. but if handled properly, they are also valuable resources. and building an ecological recycling agricultural system happens to be the best way to turn these resources into wealth. 3.1 enriching the industrial structure and improving the quality of agricultural products cultural tourism & healthcare agriculture with leisure functions is inevitably an agricultural system with multi-product output, and can meet the diverse needs of customers that a single planted product cannot meet. under the existing planting system, by adding the breeding process, not only constructing an ecological recycling agricultural system combining planting and breeding can greatly enrich the supply of agricultural products on the table, but also because the inherent technical system of ecological recycling agriculture eliminates the effects of fertilizers, pesticides and various hormones, while adopting the principles and methods of chinese medicine to prevent and control various diseases, effectively ensures the high quality and high safety of exported agricultural products, and can effectively enrich the local agricultural industry structure. 3.2 realizing resource recycling and exerting resource value a large amount of organic perishable wastes will be produced in agricultural production and human life activities. if these wastes are not treated properly, they will bring great threats and serious damages to the natural ecological environment. if these waste resources are to be treated, the best treatment is the as the agricultural production resources. the organic waste resources eventually return to the soil, which is extremely important for maintaining the balance of soil fertility, minerals and organic matter. the construction of an ecological recycling agricultural system can realize the recycling of these wastes and the recycling of agricultural resources. this is the only way to perfectly solve this problem. at the same time, resource conservation and resource regeneration and recycling are also inevitable requirements for the construction of ecological civilization and the transformation and development of the national economy to a low-carbon economy or even a zero-carbon economy under the conditions of the new era. 3.3 comprehensively improving the quality of the ecological environment clear water and green mountains are wealth. the beautiful ecology of the countryside is undoubtedly the lifeline of a new type of countryside. all waste resources generated by agricultural production and human activities must be recycled and utilized. this has become a rigid requirement, and thus building an ecological recycling agricultural system has become an objective necessity. perishable organic waste such as human and animal excrement and kitchen wastes are piled into fertilizer, and then returned to the soil as fertilizer for crop planting. this recycling method of waste resources is one of the essences of human farming civilization for thousands of years. with the development of modern technology, this resource recycling approach has been almost completely cut off, which is one of the main causes of many problems such as the gradual degradation of soil in recent years, serious soil compaction, decreasing organic matter year by year, imbalance and even local scarcity of soil trace elements. with people’s awakening of ecology and increasing attention to health and wellness, the healthy and backto-nature agricultural production model has received increasing attention from all aspects. the return to historical farming culture has also become the internal driving force for the new development of agriculture. the ecological recycling agriculture combining planting and breeding is a very important practical carrier for the return of farming civilization. 3 . 4 r e a l i z i n g i n d u s t r i a l re v i t a l i z a t i o n a n d economic development the ecological recycling agricultural technology system combining planting and breeding is a production system and an industrial system at the same time. it includes agricultural product planting, livestock and poultry breeding, feed processing, fertilizer processing, resource recovery, resource regeneration, product packaging, warehousing and logistics. the establishment of a recycling agricultural system can promote the revitalization and development of a rural industry, and is an effective way to solve the inherent contradiction between rural ecological environmental protection and social and economic development. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.449 13 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 4. the basic mode and basic principle of ecological recycling agriculture based on the cultivation of berry tea 4.1 basic mode following the basic principles of ecological recycling agriculture, through the integration of microbial engineering, mechanical engineering, construction engineering, plant repellent and physical prevention and control engineering, resource recovery and regeneration engineering and other multi-disciplinary professional technologies, a new type of ecological cycle agricultural technology system of micro-low two-level biotransformation is innovatively proposed on the basis of upgrading the original classic “pigs & biogas & fruits” model, taking the continuous conversion of material and energy in the system is used as the concept. the system has advanced technology, high material and energy conversion efficiency, thorough resource conversion, higher grade of renewable resources, and better ecological benefits. combining the actual situation of the berry tea planting industry, the future industrial development planning and positioning, the consumption habits of the chinese people and the unique characteristics of the berry tea plant source, this paper determines to use the model of berry tea & pigs & laying hens combination to build an ecological recycling agricultural system. this kind of planting and breeding mode is in line with the basic principles of resource regeneration and utilization, and its realization technology is basically mature and feasible. the basic structure of this mode is shown in figure 1: 4.2 basic principle the basic technical scheme of the combination of planting and breeding in this paper is composed of two core transformation links: liquid single-stage microbial transformation and solid microbial two-stage biological transformation. after biological transformation, the manure produced by the breeding system is transformed into excellent organic fertilizer for the planting system. the planting system has obtained an excellent and sufficient fertilizer source, which can produce a large number of plant products, combined with the large amount of lowgrade animal protein (black soldier fly) produced by the solid waste biotransformation process. after being processed into feed, it can provide abundant feed resources for the breeding system. in this way, the materials in the entire system continuously circulate, so that the resources can be continuously regenerated and utilized, thereby eliminating the pollution of the ecological environment, saving resources, reducing production costs, and achieving the purpose and effect of pure organic and true green planting and breeding, thereby ensuring the high quality and high safety of the products. the basic principle of the system is shown in figure 2: the resource circulation of the system is shown in the figure below. since the output of harmful factors in the ecological environment is prohibited, the system also ensures the health and safety of the ecological environment from the source. figure 1. basic structure of ecological recycling agriculture based on berry tea cultivation doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.449 14 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 5. the core technology of ecological recycling agriculture in order to ensure the health and safety of the ecological environment, all waste resources generated by agricultural production and human activities must be reasonably transformed and fully utilized, otherwise these wastes will threaten and destroy the health and safety of the environment. in order to ensure the health and safety of exported agricultural products, it is necessary to strictly follow and adopt the green standards stipulated by relevant national departments during the entire production process of agricultural products, and adopt a variety of scientific and effective measures and methods to ensure the entire process of agricultural production from the source. green standards can be achieved economically. both the health and safety of the ecological environment and the health and safety of agricultural products are the biggest livelihood needs of the people in today’s new era. the only agricultural production mode that can perfectly unite the two and achieve both is ecological refigure 2. basic principle of ecological recycling agriculture based on berry tea cultivation figure 3. resource circulation flow of ecological recycling agriculture doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.449 15 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 cycling agriculture. only ecological recycling agriculture has both the inherent power and the technical ability to realize the above two guarantees. 5.1 green planting technology green planting and breeding technology requires that healthy, sustainable, and environmentally friendly planting and breeding techniques are adopted in the planting and breeding process, with no use of all non-green chemicals, preparations and fertilizers during the planting and breeding process. the basic principles of carbon and zero emissions ensure the healthy growth of animals and plants, and reduce or even completely eliminate the negative impact and damage to the natural environment. according to our traditional chinese medicine thinking and theory, a healthy environment is a prerequisite to ensure the healthy growth of people, animals and plants. therefore, starting from the environment, conditioning and repairing the environment is a key link to ensure the realization of green planting and breeding. “planting before controlling the soil, breeding before controlling the houses”, which emphasizes the importance of environmental management to achieve green planting and breeding. green planting technology starts with the soil treatment for planting, increasing the content of soil organic matter, supplementing the beneficial microbial flora, regulating the content of soil mineral elements, and enhancing the activity of a variety of soil enzymes to ensure the healthy growth of plants and enhance their disease resistance and stress resistance. according to the traditional chinese medicine philosophy of “more emphasis on prevention than treatment”, in order to overcome the impact of plant diseases and insect pests, we should base our efforts on prevention and response. combining the biological characteristics of the corresponding planted crops, local native plant communities and insect communities, local natural and geographical climatic conditions, formulate corresponding prevention and control measures and time plans to prevent pests and diseases, and use microbial fertilizer and microbial bacteria strictly on time and quantitatively chemicals are used to prevent pests and diseases and promote growth of crops, and use nutrient element fertilizers to promote growth and strengthen seedlings of crops, so as to effectively improve the immunity of crop plants. for various insect pests, a multi-pronged combination strategy is adopted for comprehensive prevention and control: frequency-vibrating solar insecticidal lamps are used throughout the year to kill adult insects, effectively reducing the number of harmful adults; insect sex information disrupting hormones are used to interrupt the reproduction chain of harmful insects during the pest breeding season; the organic silicon is used to dissolve the epidermis of waxy surface insects to make them dehydrated or infect bacteria to be kilt; metarhizium anisopliae and beauveria bassiana are timely used to spray the whole garden two to three times a year. the comprehensive use of these measures can effectively prevent the occurrence of various pests. the idea of “more emphasis on prevention than treatment” is a very effective way of ensuring the quality of agricultural products and reducing the cost of agricultural production. it must be strictly implemented in the entire process of agricultural production. green breeding technology starts with the treatment of the breeding house and its surrounding environment. keeping the ecological environment around the house beautiful, clearing the weeds and trees in the park, removing the accumulation of debris in the house, cleaning up the garbage and dust, keeping the environment clean and tidy, promoting ventilation and reducing the habitat and breeding of mosquitoes and pests can greatly reduce the probability and ways of disease transmission and infection. reasonably planning roads and plant repellent isolation zones in the breeding farm can isolate and drive away harmful mosquitoes and other small animals from spreading. a high-pressure spray system is arranged in the farm and house, and the environment is regularly sprayed to eliminate pests and supplement the beneficial microbial flora that can promote the health of the animal body, maintaining the balance of the micro-ecological environment in the park, and reducing the risk of disease. the breeding houses are generally in a state of high-density breeding, and the breeding animals live under high-intensity environmental competition. in addition to effectively reducing the health and safety risks of the entire environment, it also enhances the individual animal’s physical fitness and enhances its disease resistance and immunity. it is another important way to ensure the health and safety of individual animals. still following the traditional chinese medicine theory of “more emphasis on prevention than treatment”, in the process of animal feeding, just like regulating the health of humans, properly add proprietary chinese medicine ingredients that can enhance physical fitness in the animal’s drinking water and feed, or add appropriate ingredients. the plant-based raw materials of traditional chinese medicine components are used to prevent diseases, enhance physical fitness and early treatment of diseases, thereby eliminating the abuse of various veterinary drugs, hormones and antibiotics, and ensuring the health and safety doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.449 16 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 of aquaculture products. in addition, according to the principle of nutrient absorption and enrichment by animals and plants, it is possible to deliberately customize the production of planting products according to the local resource endowment conditions. for example, berry tea scraps and its stalks can be used to be processed into feed materials. this feed is often used to feed pigs and laying hens to obtain meat and egg products containing high flavonoids. this product can improve human immunity, reduce cardiovascular diseases, and has huge benefits for eliminating other subhealth diseases. the emergence of this product has a huge promotion effect on the local health care industry, and this high-quality functional product will surely become another beautiful logo in the local area. 5 . 2 c u s t o m i z e d p ro d u c t i o n t e c h n o l o g y o f selenium-enriched agricultural products berry tea has the well-known good health care and even medicinal value. selenium also has extremely high value for human health care. if the two can be integrated into the same agricultural product at the same time, the health value of the agricultural product will be very high. selenium is a food-derived antioxidant that can scavenge excessive oxygen free radicals in the human body and prevent the destruction of cell membrane lipid peroxidation. it can improve the body’s overall immunity and has the function of assisting in cancer prevention and anti-cancer. sufficient intake of selenium in the human body can reduce blood lipids, blood pressure, prevent atherosclerosis, reduce thrombosis and reduce the area of myocardial infarction; it can prevent liver viral diseases, cirrhosis, liver cancer, fatty liver, alcoholic liver and other diseases. selenium has a function similar to insulin in the human body and can activate pancreatic islet cells to work normally. for men, selenium can improve the local anti-infective function of the prostate, control inflammation, and control hyperplasia; selenium can prevent male infertility and female infertility, enhance the body’s anti-allergic, improve the anti-allergy, anti-aging and anti-virus ability, can inhibit virus mixing and reduce lipoplaque formation, beautifying the features, protecting eyesight, removing garbage from the body, expelling toxins from the body, and removing heavy metal toxins. selenium can prevent keshan disease and kashin-beck disease. selenium also has anti-inflammatory effects and anti-aflatoxins, nitrosamines and other carcinogens in the human body. selenium can also reduce the side effects of radiotherapy and chemotherapy. therefore, to supplement the human body with sufficient selenium is beneficial to human health. food with selenium and more selenium-rich agricultural products can effectively achieve the purpose of selenium supplementation for the human body. (1) customized production technology of selenium-enriched berry tea the use of fertilizers that meet the national green food production standards. the customized production of selenium-enriched berry tea is based on the application of bio-organic selenium fertilizer during the crop growth process, and the foliar spray of organic selenium nutrient conditioner, so that the berry tea can grow in the normal process. absorb and enrich the active selenium element, so that the product can reach the standard of organic selenium-enriched agricultural products. nutritional organic selenium conditioner products contain special nutritional functions and have high adsorption properties, which can quickly and efficiently supplement the absorption of selenium by crops and increase the selenium content in agricultural products. the product is a concentrated organic nutrient that can enhance crop resistance to disease and stress, reduce the toxicity of heavy metals to crops, increase crop yield, improve crop quality, and improve product quality and commodity value. during the annual growth cycle of berry tea, selenium supplementation is carried out according to the following periods, and organic selenium nutrient conditioning agents are sprayed: a) spray the new tea garden with seedling fertilizer before the first harvest in july; b) spray once the adult tea garden for the first time in late march before budding after the beginning of spring; c) spray once the adult tea garden for the second time from late may to early june; d) spray once the adult tea garden for the third time from mid-august to early september; e) spray once the adult tea garden from late october to mid-november in late autumn, when applying overwintering base fertilizer. through the above planting techniques of supplementing organic selenium, the selenium content of berry tea can meet the technical standards of relevant national selenium-enriched products, and the amino acid content, flavonoid content, and dihydromyricetin content are correspondingly increased, which not only increases the yield and quality, and increase the value of goods. (2) customized production technology of selenium-enriched meat and eggs adopting the national green food production standards for feed and feeding management, using nutritious organic selenium feed additives to supplement organic selenium in livestock and poultry feed and drinking water, facilitating the intake and absorption of livestock and poultry, and doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.449 17 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 forming selenium-enriched livestock and poultry in the enrichment group product. 5.3 ecological environment improvement technology a good ecological environment is the biggest advantage and precious wealth of the village. relying on the ecological advantage to develop cultural tourism & health care ecological agriculture can cultivate the rural tourism service industry into a new highlight of agricultural development, and the ecological construction of a good living environment will become very important. in this regard, there are two important issues that must be considered and resolved. kitchen wastes, human feces and urine, crop stalks, tail vegetables, rotten fruits are all perishable and spoiled waste. these wastes can be regenerated resources. after the resources are regenerated, they can turn into precious. agricultural means of production. since this kind of resource is distributed in a wide area and has many characteristics, it is not suitable for large-scale centralized processing. a more reasonable and feasible way is to process on-site and digest on-site, and use small-scale centralized processing as the principle. generally, the village or the production base is the processing unit. (1) collection and disposal of kitchen wastes the kitchen wastes must be equipped with corresponding classified collection equipment and facilities, and should be collected. take unified recovery, centralized processing, and on-site digestion as the main processing method. centralized treatment needs to build a nearby treatment station based on the scale of the recycling volume, and focus on on-site treatment. small retail households that are extremely scattered and deep in the plantation park can handle it by themselves, but need to strengthen supervision and implementation. (2) collection and treatment of toilets and human feces and urine where there are people, there are problems with toilets and human feces. from an ecological point of view, the living environment of leisure agriculture must meet the standards of ecological green and low-carbon environmental protection, and it is best to achieve zero emissions. this is completely achievable in the agricultural production environment, which is no better than the urban environment. the human settlement project in the agricultural ecological environment focuses on how to realize the separation of human feces and urine and the complete recyclability and utilization. the toilet system without water and sewage and the recyclable toilet with separation of urine and feces can fully achieve the above goals. the corresponding toilet system and toilet are shown in the figure below: figure 4. eco-toilet system and toilet stools 5.4 resource recycling technology resource recovery and regeneration are the key to the smooth realization of ecological recycling agriculture. a complete resource regeneration system is the fundamental guarantee to ensure that the ecological recycling agricultural system achieves low-cost and high-efficiency, and ensures the ecological environment and the health and safety of agricultural products. the perfect resource regeneration technology includes three aspects. (1) microbial fermented feed technology for livestock and poultry during the production of berry tea, a large number of stalks, leaves and residues are produced. under the condition of no decay and deterioration, the feed fermentation microorganisms are sprayed after preliminary crushing, and then transported to a sealed container for 30-60 days of anaerobic fermentation. after maturation, take it out to dry, and crush the dried raw materials into powders. the powders become a very high-quality raw material for livestock and poultry feed. take appropriate amount of powders and mix with appropriate ratio of energy raw matedoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.449 18 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 rials. protein ingredients, mineral elements, conditioners, oils can be made into high-quality livestock and poultry feed. this kind of feed is added with probiotics for semi-fermentation before feeding, and then fed to livestock and poultry, which can significantly inhibit the production of manure and odor in farms, and can significantly improve the digestion and absorption rate of feed by livestock and poultry, and the ratio of feed to meat and the egg production rate have been significantly improved, and the immunity and disease resistance of livestock and poultry animals have also been greatly improved, which can completely eliminate the use of veterinary drugs and antibiotics. the flavor and taste of meat and egg products have been significantly improved, and can basically return to their original taste. (2) cultivation technology of selenium-rich and flavonoid-rich biological bacteria in the berry tea garden planted with selenium-rich planting technology, the old yellow leaves and pruned straws after the autumn frost are also rich in selenium and high flavonoids after the one-year tea picking is completed, which is a very good resource raw material. the old leaves and stalks after the production of the berry tea garden can be collected, dried in the sun, and removed of the mold and rot, and after two-stage pulverization, the berry tea stalks are crushed into 100-200 mesh berry tea stalk powders and stored in bags. take 7 parts of berry tea straw powder, 2 parts of rice oil bran, 1 part of other auxiliary materials, stir and mix evenly, add appropriate amount of water, adjust its moisture content to 45-60%, and it can be used for a variety of microorganisms with healthy functional properties. by adjusting different auxiliary material formulations, a variety of different microbial bacteria can be cultivated, and a variety of functional microbial bacteria products with higher health value and even medical value can be obtained. (3) biotransformation resource regeneration technology for agricultural production, the most common way to turn perishable waste into resources is to use the composting method for treatment, and finally make a base fertilizer rich in organic matter and apply it to the soil. in recent years, a regenerative treatment method with higher resource value has gradually emerged-insect biotransformation method, that is, after the perishable garbage is eaten by the black soldier fly and other scavenging insects, the perishable garbage is finally converted into insect protein. as with insect manure, insect protein is an extremely good feed protein resource. insect manure is a bio-organic fertilizer resource that can be directly applied. in this way, after insect biotransformation, the resource grade and value of perishable waste have been greatly improved. the rotten and deteriorated stalks, fruits and vegetables, kitchen wastes, human and livestock manure are mixed for crushing and beating. after the beating, the microbial fermentation bacteria are sprayed. after 4 days of microbial fermentation, it is used to feed the black soldier flies. after the biotransformation of horsefly, these perishable wastes are completely transformed into black soldier fly protein resources and insect manure organic fertilizer resources. sewage from perishable garbage and sewage from human and animal excrement are collected, aggregated and mixed, and then subjected to microbial fermentation. after 15-20 days of fermentation, it becomes a high-concentration liquid organic fertilizer. finally, add microbial conditioning strains and apply after filtering. the original solution must be diluted 100-200 times when used. the original solution is piped to the fertilizer and water integrated irrigation system in the plantation, and it is used for irrigation in a “small amount but more times” method. , at the same time, it can be used in conjunction with microbial flushing and fertilizer to improve fertilizer efficiency, promote growth and increase production, improve taste and enhance flavor. for domestic sewage, after 15-20 days of natural fermentation with specially formulated microorganisms, the active heavy metal ions in the sewage and its sludge are completely passivated. at this time, it can be used as agricultural irrigation water and filtered into the fertilizer-water integrated irrigation system to carry out irrigation and consumption. all wastes generated in the production and living processes are processed in a negative pressure system or a closed container during the recycling process, and the gas pollution sources produced by it are piped into the special deodorizing equipment, and oxidative degradation purification is carried out in the process. after purification reaches the standard, it is discharged into the atmosphere. a perfect resource regeneration system is not only a value generation system for resource regeneration and transformation, but also an ecological protection system that can completely eliminate the “three wastes” pollution caused by agricultural production and human life. it is a purifier of the “three wastes” and a protector of the ecological environment. 5.5 principles of traditional chinese medicine technology and methods applying to agriculture (chinese medicine agriculture) faced with the threats to humans caused by the rejuvenation of various diseases, and “the cure is not as good as the prevention”, and strive to seek a life rhythm that doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.449 19 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 is more in harmony with nature, and create a living condition that is conducive to ecology, life health, healthy food and health air. pastoral & health & health care model has gradually attracted the attention of all mankind. after many years, 80% of the population will need this kind of life as a life protection agent, and the industry development of the pastoral & health & health care model will develop rapidly. principles of traditional chinese medicine technology and methods applying to agriculture (chinese medicine agriculture) is the carrier of traditional chinese farming culture. it is the crystallization of the hard work and wisdom of the chinese nation for thousands of years. it is the integration, inheritance and innovative development of farming culture and traditional chinese medicine culture. it is an ecological agriculture with chinese characteristics. principles of traditional chinese medicine technology and methods applying to agriculture (chinese medicine agriculture) can comprehensively prevent and control the three-dimensional pollution of water, soil and air in the production area of agricultural products and improve the environment of the production area, promote the healthy growth of animals and plants, and ensure the effective supply and quality safety of agricultural products. in production practice, the principles and technical methods of chinese medicine are mainly used in three aspects of agriculture: (1) use chinese herbal medicine to produce “two medicines” (pesticides and veterinary drugs) to protect the growth of animals and plants; (2) use the combination of chinese herbal medicine and natural nutrients to produce “two materials” (fertilizer and feed) to promote the growth of animals and plants; (3) use the mechanism of mutual growth and restraint between functional animals and plants (such as living chinese herbal medicines) and other biological communities to regulate the growth of animals and plants. the agricultural products produced by traditional chinese medicine agricultural technology are generally characterized by high-quality, high-yield, ecological safety, good color and fragrance, strong functionality, long-term freshness, and good stress resistance, and their production costs have been reduced. traditional chinese medicine agriculture can produce “food and medicine homology” or functional agricultural products for sub-healthy people (about 70% of the total population) to improve immunity. traditional chinese medicine agriculture has important application value in the development and application of food and medicine homologous food, health food and food for special medical purposes. 5.6 modern production management technology the planting process uses mechanical soil loosening and fertilization, mechanical pruning and collecting and breaking, using drones for spraying and topdressing and pest prevention and control, using fertilizer and water integrated automatic irrigation system for fertilizer and daily irrigation management. through soil temperature and humidity sensors, internet of things cameras and 5g internet of things technology, it realizes remote monitoring of soil moisture and dynamic tracking of the growth environment of berry tea, grasps various growth data in time, and controls product quality throughout the process. the planting area is equipped with frequency-vibrating solar insecticidal lamps, set up pest information interference points, and hang micro-information intervention bags to improve the photosynthetic respiration of crops, promote crop growth, and promote the strong growth of stress resistance factors in crops, so as to achieve disease resistance. planting the insect repellent plants and the flower plants growing with berry tea in the gaps to improve the quality of the ecological environment and further reduce the number of pests. berry tea garden uses microbial herbicides for weed control, which can not only achieve the purpose of removing weeds, but also avoid the ecological pollution and health hazards caused by the use of chemical herbicides. the construction of the breeding farm considers the need for the treatment of manure resources. raising pigs and chickens adopt a construction pattern of different houses on the same farm. at the same time, the planning and construction of a biological conversion farm for manure resources regeneration is also considered. according to the method of “three feces in one” (human feces and urine collected from the toilet in the park or nearby living area are mixed with pig feces and chicken feces, the mixed comprehensive nutrient ratio is balanced, which is very suitable for insect biotransformation treatment), after being fermented and processed into protein feed, the bio-transformed feed is fed to the black soldier flies to realize the resource conversion. the converted black soldier fly protein is used as feed protein to supplement the livestock and poultry feed. the black soldier fly protein itself also has very unique biological characteristics. the beneficial supplement of the black soldier fly protein in the feed can effectively improve the quality of livestock and poultry products. as well as health care functions, the black soldier fly dung is used as an excellent organic fertilizer and then applied to the berry tea plantation, which can greatly improve the soil structure, enhance the soil doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.449 20 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 fertility, and increase the product quality and yield of berry tea. a high-pressure spray system is arranged in the breeding farm and in the house. the automatic control system realizes the supplementation of the beneficial microbial flora of the breeding farm and the suppression of nonpoint source odor. the air is cleaned and purified regularly, and it is also heatstroke prevention and cooling. the role of moisturizing. fermented feed feeding technology is adopted for livestock and poultry breeding, which can effectively improve the quality of livestock and poultry products and reduce the emission of manure and odor, without bringing a burden to the ecological environment of the breeding area. the livestock and poultry drinking water adopts a special water quality improvement process system, and the micro-information intervention technology is used to improve the drinking water quality, so that the livestock and poultry can drink small molecular clusters of active hydrogen-rich water for a long time, so as to improve the body’s health and make its metabolism vigorous, which can prevent a variety of diseases. after the laying period of the laying hens is over, the chickens have been over one year old, and the laying hens that have been put off the shelves are rewilded under the forest and stocked in the berry tea garden. after about 45 days of free-range conditioning, restoration and transformation, they can recover wildness of more than 90%. the meat quality and taste of the chicken are as good as or even higher than the quality of ordinary domestic chickens. moreover, it has higher nutritional value and is a superior nourishing product. 6. practical significance of combination of planting and feeding ecological recycling agriculture to existing industries 6.1 ecological significance after the ecological recycling agriculture system is completed and put into operation, the fields in the plantation park are clean, the soil and water have been purified and repaired unprecedentedly, the plants grow healthier and stronger, and the ambient air quality is better. the farms are clean and tidy, the environment is airy and breathable, the trees are shaded, and the flowers are clustered. the cross-flow sewage, blockage of rivers, stalks everywhere, smelly air, dung and dirt on the ground, mosquitoes and flies flying indiscriminately will never be seen again. the overall ecological environment has been unprecedentedly improved, effectively protecting the green waters and green mountains. 6.2 economic significance a good ecological environment, a scientific planting and breeding technology system, and a healthy process philosophy ensure the health and safety of the entire agricultural production process. the recycling of agricultural and domestic waste resources, and the safety of input materials for planting and breeding, avoid the use of pesticides, fertilizer hormones and antibiotics. in addition, it adopts the traditional agricultural production method of “more emphasis on prevention than treatment” and “emphasis on more environmental governance than disease management”, to ensure a healthy environment to produce healthy products. the ecological recycling agriculture system is a technical system focusing on a healthy environment. it uses a series of technical means to ensure the health of the environment, to promote the healthy growth of individual animals and plants with a healthy environment, and obtains healthy and high-quality products with healthy and high-quality individual growth, and even functional customized products with special effects. the enormous abundance of products produced, the upgrading of product quality, and the improvement and expansion of the agricultural industry structure will in turn promote the rapid development of the local economy. 6.3 deep development significance constructing a berry tea ecological recycling agriculture system and supplementing related breeding links on the basis of berry tea planting are a great supplement to the local agricultural output, and are also a full and reasonable use of berry tea plant resources. conversely, the addition of breeding industry is also a beneficial supplement to the berry tea planting industry. in terms of resource utilization and agricultural production, they are complementary and beneficial and promote each other. since breeding is based on the full utilization of the plant resources of berry tea, the unique value of berry tea will also have very unique value and significance after assimilation and enrichment. from the perspective of resource transformation and utilization, because the breeding scale and the planting scale need to match, the overall local agricultural industry scale and industrial benefits have been multiplied with the establishment of the ecological recycling agricultural system. the abundant natural tourism resources bring a large number of tourists, and the beautiful and healthy agricultural ecological environment and the supply of high-quality, healthy and abundant agricultural products will inevitably attract a considerable number of tourists to linger on. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.449 21 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 04 | december 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 after the completion of the advanced modern ecological recycling agricultural system, it provides the possibility for agricultural ecological tourism, creative cultural tourism and health recuperation. after the relevant elements of leisure agriculture are grafted in, the connotation and extension of the agricultural industry will be further greatly expanded, and it will also bring further space for local industrial revitalization and economic development. 7. conclusion this paper analyzes the characteristics of the berry tea industry, summarizes the unique functional value of berry tea crops, and combines the beneficial analysis of various local resources, and proposes an agricultural production model that is more conducive to the development of the berry tea industry, and a system of building a planting and breeding ecological recycling agricultural technology around the cultivation of berry tea. through the detailed analysis of the agricultural technology system, it systematically explained the upgrading of the berry tea industry, expanding the industrial structure, enriching the types of output products, and deepening the development of the industry, and finally reached the conclusion that the development of the combination of planting and breeding around the production of berry tea ecological recycling agriculture can further ensure the health and safety of the ecological environment and various agricultural products produced, can effectively realize the organic combination of cultural tourism, health and agriculture, and can exponentially expand the scale of local agriculture and economic benefits. it is a very effective new agricultural production model for rural revitalization and economic development. references [1] luo shiming. construction of ecological agriculture confirmation system. research on agricultural modernization. 2020, 41 (01). [2] zhang xueying. optimization of detection method of total flavonoids in substitute tea of berry tea. hunan agricultural sciences. 2020, (10). [3] zhang zhen. discussion on the economic development mode of circular agriculture combining planting and breeding. finance. 2020, (12). [4] zhang lijian, sun jian. tcm agricultural theory innovation promoting agricultural ecological development. 2020 smart city construction forum proceedings, china smart city economic expert committee conference proceedings. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i4.449 1 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://journals.nasspublishing.com/index.php/rwae copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). 1. introduction during much of 2005-2010, the u.s. wheat, corn and soybeans futures markets experienced non-convergence. non-convergence occurs when futures contracts are settled much higher or lower than the corresponding market’s cash price. futures contracts nearing expiration are expected to be close to or equal to the cash price at delivery locations, as arbitrage is expected to cause the law of one price to hold [1]. as garcia, irwin, and smith [2] argue, this divergence was created by a divergence in the price of deliverable warehouse receipts and the price of grain. in a non-converging market, the hedger is still protected from price risk as long as the futures and cash prices move in the same direction. cash market gains and losses can still be offset by futures market gains and losses. in this case, cash and futures prices do not converge to each other, but they converge on a predictable basis. on the other hand, if the basis at expiration exhibits random fluctuations, then a hedger is not insulated from price risk. the volume of futures trading remained high during the non-convergence periods, which suggests that hedgers may have been able to adapt. whether firms hedge or not, they typically base their doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.826 received: 14 march 2023; received in revised form: 14 april 2023; accepted: 20 april 2023; published: 25 april 2023 citation: hayhurst, e., brorsen, b.w., 2023. resilience of grain storage markets to upheaval in futures markets. research on world agricultural economy. 4(2), 826. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.826 *corresponding author: b.wade brorsen, department of agricultural economics, oklahoma state university, stillwater, ok, 74078, usa; email: wade.brorsen@okstate.edu research article resilience of grain storage markets to upheaval in futures markets emma hayhurst1,2 b.wade brorsen2* 1. consolidated grain and barge co., catoosa, ok, 74015, usa 2. department of agricultural economics, oklahoma state university, stillwater, ok, 74078, usa abstract: the past two decades have had times when grain cash and futures markets did not converge during delivery. what was the economic impact of this non-convergence on storage markets? to answer this question the supply of storage is estimated for corn, soybeans, and wheat. the lack of convergence is measured using a historical basis. the econometric model shows no relationship between the supply of storage and the lack of convergence. thus, empirical results suggest that markets were able to adapt to the lack of convergence. overall, the research indicates the resilience of storage markets to structural change. keywords: basis; convergence; hedging; storage http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.826 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.826 mailto:wade.brorsen@okstate.edu https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7109-7717 2 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 price expectations upon the futures market. the particular concern is that the non-convergence could have caused the returns to storage to be overestimated. to address this concern, the primary objective of this research is to determine the effect of lack of convergence on the supply of storage. note that mispricing in one market has the potential to spread to other markets [3,4], so the issue is of concern to world grain markets. 2. theory of storage the theory of storage [5-8], defines the equilibrium relationship between cash and futures prices. this relationship can be stated in terms of the basis, the difference between the contemporaneous spot price in period t, st, and the futures price (as of date t) for delivery at date t, ft,t. the theory is that the (negative of the) basis is composed of the cost-of-carry: interest foregone to borrow to buy the commodity, st rt, (where rt is the interest charge on a dollar from t to t), plus the physical storage costs w(t – t), minus a convenience yield, ct, which is an implied return on inventories: , −  =  + ( − ) −  (1) the futures price minus the spot price equals the basis. the basis is equal to st rt, the opportunity cost, plus the marginal storage cost (w(t – t) where w is the daily physical cost of storage), minus the convenience yield. under the theory of storage, inventories are held only if expected returns are positive. a lack of convergence (with futures higher than cash) would distort this formula and project returns to be higher than actual. therefore, a shift in the demand for storage could occur and more grain would be stored. the expected profit maximization for a storage provider, assuming that the producer is hedging, can be expressed as: max    =  +ℎ −  −  +ℎ −   − ()  ≤  (2) where e(π) is the expected profit, q is the quantity stored, ft+h is the distant futures price, ft is the nearby futures price, st is the cash price, st+1 is the distant cash price and c(q) is a cost function that includes storage fees, insurance, pest management and other costs associated with the storing of the grain. the amount of grain that can be stored is constrained by the capacity, where capacity equals the amount of storage available, for example grain elevators. brennan [7] lets the amount of a commodity held in storage be determined by the equality of marginal cost of storage and the temporal price spread. in a competitive market a firm seeking to maximize net revenue will hold the amount of stocks such that the net marginal cost of storage per unit equals the expected change in price per unit of time. van huellen [9] explains the non-convergence augments using the commodity storage model and a price-pressure component:  +ℎ = ,+ℎ +  + (+ℎ) (3) where e(st+h) is the expected future cash price, ft,t+h is the futures price at time t and contract maturity of t+h, ρt is a risk premium, and e(basist+h) is the expected basis at time t+h. non-convergence makes it difficult for firms to forecast basis. if they are unable to predict the non-convergence then their expected returns to storage will be inaccurate and there will be a loss of social welfare [10,11]. hatchett and brorsen [12] as well as thompson et al. [13] suggest using only the most recent information to forecast basis during times of structural change, but even that is only partly successful. the chicago board of trade (cbot) and kansas city board of trade (kcbot) made changes to grain futures contract specifications to combat the 2005-2010 non-convergence problems. changes included limiting the number of warehouse receipts and shipping certificates that a trader could hold, expanding delivery locations, and variable storage rates [20]. irwin [20] argues that the most fundamental change was the implementation of a variable storage rate (vsr) rule for cbot wheat beginning in september 2010. the chicago mercantile exchange (cme) did not introduce vsr to corn and soybeans markets but chose to increase their fixed storage fees in 2008 and later in 2020 [15]. the objective of implementing vsr was to improve convergence, and that is ultimately what it did. while index funds are often blamed for distorting markets, there is little empirical evidence that they do so [16-18]. 3. data and methods data used for this research came from multiple sources. futures prices for corn and soybeans were compiled by the livestock marketing information center (lmic) and stem from reported prices of cbot/cme group futures contract settlement prices. the kansas city hard red winter wheat contract was used for wheat and these prices come from barchart. cash prices for all three commodities were compiled by lmic based on usda reports with both #2 yellow corn and #1 wheat using kansas city prices and #1 yellow soybeans using central illinois prices. the ending stocks for each commodity come from the world agricultural supply and demand estimates (wasde) report. the annual ending stock quantities used for wheat are on may 1st, and corn and soybeans are on july 1st. the annual interest rate used is the market yield 3 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 on u.s. treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, which comes from the federal reserve economic data (fred). non-convergence was measured using the basis of the 4 weeks prior to each contract’s expiration date, which is the 15th of that month. the equation estimated for the supply of storage is:  = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 +  (4) where est is the quantity of ending stocks of the commodity at time t, oppcostt is the cash price of the commodity multiplied by the annual interest rate at time t, which measures the opportunity cost of storing, returnst is the expected returns on storage of the commodity using the futures price, at time t, nonconvergence is a measure of the basis, and ϵt is the random error term such that  ~  0, 2 . note that the relationship to returns is sometimes considered nonlinear [19]. the linear approximation is used here due to the relatively small degrees of freedom. 4. results and discussions table 1 presents the estimates of equation (4), the supply of storage equation using opportunity cost, the returns from storage and measurement of non-convergence. when trying to connect non-convergence to the amount of grain stored, table 1 indicates that the measure of convergence is not statistically significant for any of the three commodities. note that this finding is consistent with revoredo-giha and zuppiroli [20] who found no change in hedging effectiveness in u.s. wheat markets over 2007-2012. similarly, karali et al. [21] found that non-convergence did not affect the economic relationship between soft red winter wheat delivery and non-delivery locations. shi and insengildina-massa [22], however, found that hedging failure was more common in corn markets during 2007-2013. the expected sign for the convergence variable is negative, so it would counter the naive expectation of higher returns on storage than actual returns. so, corn does not have the expected sign for the convergence variable. the other explanatory variables have the expected signs and are statistically significant. 5. conclusions the empirical results suggest that grain storage markets adapted to the lack of convergence between cash and futures prices. this research found a negative relationship between opportunity cost and ending stocks, as well as a positive relationship between returns to storage and ending stocks. thus, firms appear to have formed price expectations based on the predicted change in futures prices rather than by assuming that basis would converge. table 1. estimates of the effect of non-convergence on the supply of storage. commodity variable coefficient t-val p-value kchrw intercept 518 *** 7.85 0.001 opportunity cost ($/bu) –1463 *** –4.26 0.001 return on storagea ($/bu) 295 ** 2.79 0.012 basisb ($/bu) –35 –0.93 0.368 corn intercept 1669 *** 4.82 0.000 opportunity cost ($/bu) –7754 *** –3.39 0.004 return on storagea ($/bu) 2978 *** 3.62 0.002 basisb ($/bu) 37 0.46 0.649 soybeans intercept 738 *** 6.23 <0.0001 oppportunity cost ($/bu) –1924 *** –4.18 0.001 return on storagea ($/bu) 1425 ** 3.50 0.003 basisb ($/bu) –286 –1.49 0.156 *p<0.1, ** p<0.05, ***p<0.01. notes: the time period was 2000-2021, which gave 21 observations. the dependent variable is ending stocks (may for wheat and july for corn and soybeans). areturn on storage is the calendar spread (for example, kc hrw march 2018 futures contract price minus kc hrw may 2017 futures contract price). bbasis is the average of the four weeks prior to the contract’s expiration date. 4 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 author contributions the manuscript is based on the ms thesis by emma hayhurst, which was submitted in may 2022 with the same title. she conducted all statistical analysis, wrote the original draft, and substantial revisions. dr. wade brorsen provided advice and editorial suggestions. funding funding was provided by the oklahoma agricultural experiment station and national institute of food and agriculture hatch project okl03170 as well as the a.j. and susan jacques chair. data availability the data are available upon request from the corresponding author. conflict of interest the authors declare no conflict of interest. references [1] adjemian, m.k., garcia, p., irwin, s., et al., 2013. non-convergence in domestic commodity futures markets: causes, consequences, and remedies [internet]. united states department of agriculture. available from: https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/ publications/43777/39376_eib115.pdf?v=41492 [2] garcia, p., irwin, s.h., smith, a., 2015. futures market failure? american journal of agricultural economics. 97(1), 40-64. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau067 [3] capitanio, f., rivieccio, g., adinolfi, f., 2020. food price volatility and asymmetries in rural areas of south mediterranean countries: a copula-based garch model. international journal of environmental research and public health. 17(16), 5855. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17165855 [4] goswami, a., karali, b., 2022. the impact of fundamentals on volatility measures of agricultural substitutes. journal of agricultural and applied economics. 54(4), 723-768. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2022.37 [5] kaldor, n., 1939. speculation and economic stability. the review of economic studies. 7(1), 1-27. [6] working, h., 1949. the theory of price of storage. american economic review. 39(6), 1254-1262. [7] brennan, m., 1958. the supply of storage. american economic review. 48, 50-72. [8] cafiero, c., bobenrieth, e.s.a., bobenreith, j.r.a., et al., 2011. the empirical relevance of the competitive storage model. journal of econometrics. 162(1), 44-54. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.10.008 [9] van huellen, s., 2018. how financial investment distorts food prices: evidence from u.s. grain markets. agricultural economics. 49(2), 171-181. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12406 [10] garcia-verdugo, j., consuegra, m., 2013. estimating functional efficiency in energy futures markets. economics and business letters. 2(3), 105-115. [11] penone, c., giampietri, e., trestini, s., 2022. futures-spot price transmission in eu corn markets. agribusiness. 38(3), 679-709. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21735 [12] hatchett, r.b., brorsen, b.w., anderson, k.b., 2010. optimal length of moving average to forecast futures basis. journal of agricultural and resource economics. 35(1), 18-33. [13] thompson, n.m., edwards, a.j., mintert, j.r., et al., 2019. practical alternatives for forecasting corn and soybean basis in the eastern corn belt throughout the crop marketing year. journal of agricultural and resource economics. 44(3), 571-590. [14] irwin, s.h., 2020. trilogy for troubleshooting convergence: manipulation, structural imbalance, and storage rates. journal of commodity markets. 17, 100083. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2018.11.002 [15] goswami, a., adjemian, m.k., karali, b., 2022. the impact of futures contract storage rate policy on convergence expectations in domestic commodity markets. food policy. 111, 102301. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2022.102301 [16] irwin, s.h., sanders, d.r., 2011. index funds, financialization, and commodity futures markets. applied economic perspectives and policy. 33(1), 1-31. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppq032 [17] hayhurst, e., 2020. resilience of grain storage markets to upheaval in futures markets [master’s thesis]. stillwater: oklahoma state university. available from: https://www.proquest.com/ docview/2758654119?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true [18] li, j., irwin, s.h., etienne, x., 2022. do extreme cit position changes move prices in grain futures markets? journal of agricultural and applied economics. 54(4), 792-814. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2022.40 https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/43777/39376_eib115.pdf?v=41492 https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/43777/39376_eib115.pdf?v=41492 https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12406 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2018.11.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2022.102301 https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppq032 https://www.proquest.com/docview/2758654119?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true https://www.proquest.com/docview/2758654119?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true https://www.proquest.com/docview/2758654119?pq-origsite=gscholar&fromopenview=true 5 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 [19] williams, j.c., wright, b.d., 1991. storage and commodity markets. cambridge university press: cambridge. [20] revoredo-giha, c., zuppiroli, m., 2014. exploring the hedging effectiveness of european wheat futures markets during the 2007-2012 period. procedia economics and finance. 14, 90-99. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(14)00690-x [21] karali, b., mcnew, k., thurman, w.n., 2018. price discovery and the basis effects of failures to converge in soft red winter wheat futures markets. journal of agricultural and resource economics. 43(1), 1-17. [22] shi, r., isengildina massa, o., 2022. costs of futures hedging in corn and soybean markets. journal of agricultural and resource economics. 47(2), 390-409. doi: https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.313311 https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(14)00690-x 16 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.344 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae the effectiveness of the application of comprehensive measures to combat erosion using irrigation in a market economy in azerbaijan: on the example of the kur-araks plain z.h.aliyev* institute of soil science and agrochemistry of anas article info abstract article history received: 1 december 2020 accepted: 8 january 2021 published online: 30 march 2021 studies in the article have shown that productivity increases with improved structure. this is explained by the fact that in soils with 0.25 mm diameter water-resistant aggregates of 14%, grain yield is 22.2 cents / ha, while water-resistant aggregates are 8%. in soils, this figure decreased to 18.4 cents / ha (3.8 cents / ha). it is also known that alfalfa plays a key role in improving the water-physical properties of the soil, as well as its agrochemical composition. the author's research shows that the amount of water-resistant aggregates under the clover is much higher than in the cotton fields. this can be clearly seen from the following comparison. thus, the amount of water-resistant aggregates in 0-10 cm of soil in the cotton field is 4.0-18.5; while 0.5 cm is 6.5-11.2 and 20-30 cm is 4.5-18.2, in clover crops this indicator is 35.0; increased to 24.7 and 27.0. in addition, it revealed the accumulation of more organic and mineral substances under alfalfa cultivation. they proved this by the analysis of soil samples taken from the one-year and two-year plots. it was found that 1.66% humus and 0.112% total nitrogen were accumulated in the topsoil of the annual alfalfa field, while the amount of humus accumulated in the topsoil in the biennial clover field was 1.70% and the total nitrogen content was 0.150%. it should be noted. that the development of irrigation erosion in irrigated arable lands depends on the fact that the surface of the area is covered with a large cover. this was clearly shown by the observations. it was found that both relatively weak (0.4 mm / min) and very (1.4 mm / min) heavy rains protect clover soil from further washing. thus, 0.4 mm / min. in heavy rains, the depth of the furrow under alfalfa is 14.4 mm, 31 mm at 1.4 mm / min, 50.9 and 64.2 mm between rows of cotton, respectively, and 78.6 and 113 mm along the row. 6 mm. keywords: soil structure moisture surface slope plowing leveling aggregate composition irrigation erosion 　 1. introduction admittedly, the results of many fundamental and applied studies on soil erosion and the development of erosion phenomena have shown that modern research methods are inevitable and naturally always applied, but using the above-mentioned new works, through an integrated approach solution the next stage in the field of science, where known ways of formation are carried out to prevent this, opens the way to experimental and applied research. all this has become as important as the demands of the day. it is characterized by urgency it is known that there is no complete list of information on *corresponding author: z.h.aliyev, institute of soil science and agrochemistry of anas; e-mail: zakirakademik@mail.ru re tra cte d 17 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.344 soil erosion and reactions at various administrative levels, that scientists and researchers working in this field ignore visual and other reporting materials and content outside university textbooks, and can be of great help to authors on many scientific and applied topics. to date, the republic has not been fully addressed.[1,4] the research direction, soil mapping and erosion-prevention project, related to soil erosion and especially irrigation erosion in the country's soils, is recommended for students and is broad and the main blocks (lines) can be offered: soil erosion research terminology, classification; criteria used to determine the risk of erosion; assessment and mapping of erosion-hazardous soils; mapping of eroded soils; soil erosion protection; design of anti-erosion measures; environmental, social and economic effectiveness of erosion control measures; status of research on soil erosion protection in azerbaijan and other countries of the world.[3] due to the lack of water balance in most parts of the country, the natural and climatic conditions of the republic create conditions for development and erosion, deflation, and require special, progressive methods of land, plant, land reclamation and protection without a shortage of land. it should be noted that the main massifs suitable for the use of irrigated agricultural lands in the country are already part of 1.410 million hectares, and further expansion of arable lands is possible only due to the development of low-yielding lands and requires excessive protection of soil erosion, soil fertility the author's monographs show soil erosion as an effect of natural and anthropogenic factors and the environment in the implementation of scientific research conducted by the institute of erosion and irrigation of anas in the direction of research. .[3,4] objectives of the study: to study the results of monitoring to determine the degree of exposure to irrigation erosion of plain lands on the example of the kura-araz lowland and to develop prerequisites for its prevention. 2. discussion of the course of the research and the results of the research surface leveling works: as it is known, each of the irrigated arable lands of the republic has a high slope, while in the plains (kur-araz lowland) the slope is relatively low. in addition, most areas are also characterized by a superficial slope, and they are distinguished by the upper, middle and lower parts of the area. most of these areas are uneven and rough. such roughness causes uneven distribution of irrigation water provided for irrigation purposes to the irrigated arable land. thus, soil moisture in the area is disturbed. in addition, in areas that do not have a smooth slope, the essential nutrients needed for plant assimilation are not the same, and thus the supply of nutrients to plants is impaired. the above shortcomings hinder the ability of plants to obtain stable and high yields. therefore, washing in such areas is also intensive. therefore, it is necessary to carry out surface leveling works on irrigated arable lands.[3] in general, surface leveling is divided into basic and current. current leveling is different from preparing the soil for planting each year, and they do not require significant capital expenditures. capital leveling works must be carried out at a time when the irrigated areas need to be thoroughly leveled. irrigated arable lands are grouped according to their inclination to carry out works. thus, areas with a slope of 0.001 are very few and non-sloping, areas with a slope of 0.001-0.025 are slightly sloping, areas with a slope of 0.002-0.0075 are moderately sloping, areas with a slope of 0.0075 to 0.002 are very sloping, 0, areas from 02 to 0.005 are considered to be very steep, areas with 0.05-0.01 and more are considered to be steeply patched areas. the surface slope for each irrigated area is determined by leveling. [3,4] for this purpose, the landowner must contact a suitable specialist and know the slope of the land belonging to him. if the slope of the area belongs to it is more than 0.01 (1 cm height difference from every 100 m), then in such areas it is necessary to carry out first of all capital, and then current leveling works. for this purpose, the necessary preparations must be made in advance. for this purpose, on the basis of the geodetic plan, a plan of horizontal and vertical lines should be drawn every 10 cm (especially in ground leveling works) and a project of leveling works should be drawn up. the work plan must specify the scope of work, the areas to be cut and filled, the direction of the soil, the distance of relocation, etc. should be specified. scraper, bulldozer, and later special leveling mechanisms (pt-4, pt-2,8) can be used for capital leveling, and pt-4a, ps-2,75, pd-5, etc. can be used for current leveling. in all cases, the thickness of the soil should be taken into account if you grow in any area. in this case, it is necessary to ensure that the layer of nutrients (humus, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium) necessary for the growth and development of the plant is not damaged. the cut humus layer should be used later in the fields. at the same time, the landowner does not have the necessary capacity for both capital and current leveling, especially in areas where sowing is carried out from scratch with simple equipment (horn, iron) placed on special sowing units after the first (freezing) or second (repeated) plowing. etc.) must carry out current levelre tra cte d 18 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 ing works in the direction of the site. in all cases, work should be done to ensure that the slope of the field does not exceed 0.01. in this way, first of all, the areas are significantly free from permanent and temporary ditches. thus, it is possible to increase the length of the furrows in the inter-row cultivated areas, and the length and width of the irrigation strips in the fully cultivated areas. thus, the development of irrigation erosion in irrigated arable lands can be significantly eliminated.[1,2] selection of water consumption: as it is known, the soil cover of our republic is different and differs in thickness. relatively medium (30-50 km) and thick (more than 50 cm) soils are located mainly on low-slope slopes (areas), while high-slope (up to 30 cm thick) soils are developed on sloping slopes. in such areas, the soils have a small contour (sometimes 10-20 ha) and are inclined, so it is not possible to carry out major leveling work there. the main purpose of irrigation in such areas should be to pay attention to the consumption of irrigation water. for this purpose, it is first necessary to determine the rate of irrigation. to do this, the depth of the active layer (in the nature of plants n), the volume of the soil, the difference between the moisture content of the soil after irrigation and the moisture content of the soil before irrigation. for this purpose, after determining the water norm, 10-15% additional water norm (evaporating, filtration, etc.) should be given to the obtained water norm. then it is necessary to try to irrigate in such a way that the required amount of allocated irrigation water can be converted into productive soil moisture by giving the irrigated areas in the way and form that the plant can use. however, the structure of the soil should not be disturbed, the water use factor should be high, and most importantly, the fertile soil layer should not be eroded. [2,7] thus, in areas where irrigation water is supplied to the soil at a very high cost, the velocity of water on the surface exceeds its rate of absorption into the soil, and irrigation water forms a certain layer flow in the area. conversely, in areas where irrigation water is supplied at low cost, its surface velocity is equal to the rate of absorption, and water supplied for irrigation is gradually absorbed into the soil during this period. as a result, the washing process does not take place. therefore, no conditions should be created for the destructive activity of water consumption in the furrow and strip method. in this process, the mechanical composition of the soil, its permeability, water permeability, slope of the area, etc. must be taken into account.[1,2,9] we must study the impact of different water consumption on the development of irrigation erosion in the fields of cotton, tobacco, winter wheat, corn, perennial grasses (first year-clover) and perennial crops (apple orchards and olives), where irrigated agriculture is developing. for this purpose, non-normalized in cotton sowing areas arbitrary flow, 1.0 and 0.8 l / s, 0.1 in tobacco sowing areas; 0.2; 0.3; 0.4; 0.6 and 0.8; spontaneous flow in autumn wheat crops, 0.4 and 0.8; arbitrary flow in corn crops 0.4 and 0.8 l / s, arbitrary flow in perennial grass (first clover) crops, 0.4 and 0.8 l / s, arbitrary flow in perennial crops (apple and olive), 2.0 l / s, 1.0 l / s and 0.5 l / s water consumption were used. studies have shown that the amount of washed soil varies according to the water consumption in areas with efni natural conditions (mechanical composition of soils, irrigation method, length of furrows, etc.). thus, while only 26.8 t / ha of soil was washed away by vegetative irrigation water applied 3 times due to non-normalized water (spontaneous flow) applied in cotton growing areas, the amount of washed soil due to 1.0 l / s water consumption was 19.4 t. / ha, and 5.2 t / ha of soil was eroded due to water consumption of 0.8 l / s. such regularity was also typical for other crop areas.[5,7,8] it should be noted that the erosion resistance of the soils themselves also plays a key role in soil erosion. thus, alluvial-meadow soils used in tobacco cultivation are more resistant to erosion than gray soils used for cotton cultivation. therefore, the process of irrigation erosion in such soils is more intensive. in addition to the above, due to unregulated water use in agricultural irrigation, soils are subject to irrigation erosion, and humus and essential nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium), which are essential for plant growth and development, are washed away by both liquid and silt flows. remains untouched. the results of the analysis showed that the amount of humus washed by liquid flow is 0.006%, the amount of humus washed by downstream is 0.79%, 0.018% and 2.0% respectively in tobacco fields, 0.033% and 2 in autumn wheat fields, respectively. 0%, 0.013% and 2.02% in corn crops, 0.011% and 1.22% in perennial crops. these were significantly higher than the humus and other nutrients washed in the areas regulated by the relevant plantings or where water consumption was reduced. the amount of k2o in such crops is 144.6-241.0, respectively; 89.2-241.0; fluctuated between 70.5-86.10 and 144.5-181.3 mg / kg. all this has negatively affected the growth and development of plants. thus, while there were 18.22 cones on the trunk of a cotton plant in an area not subject to irrigation erosion, there were only 1012 cones on a cotton bush in an area not irrigated. or, if the height of the tobacco plant is 234 cm and the number of technically useful leaves on it is 54, the height of the doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.344 re tra cte d 19 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 tobacco plant in the washed areas is 75 cm, and the number of technically injured leaves does not exceed 17. in areas with 0.4 liters of water per second, the height of corn ("krasnodar-508") is 275 cm, the number of legs on its stem is 3, the number of productive stems in winter wheat (bozozstaya-i) is 470, the weight of one grain is 1.9 grams. amount 51; the weight of 1000 grains is 45.8 grams, clover (“azerbaijan 262 ”variety) 56 cm, while the number of stems per square meter is 473, in areas with high water consumption and intensive irrigation erosion, the height of corn is 217 cm, the number of legs is i, the number of productive stems in wheat is 350, the depth of one spike is 28, the length of one spike was 4.9 cm, the weight of the grain in one spike was 0.8 grams, the weight of 1000 grains was 34 grams, the height of the clover was 35 cm, the number of stems per square meter did not exceed 416. all this leads to a decrease in the productivity of the described plants. thus, 30.6 quintals per hectare of non-eroded cotton, 35.5 quintals from tobacco, 53.0 quintals from corn, 37.0 quintals from autumn wheat, 372.0 quintals from perennial grasses (alfalfa, green mass) and if 70 s of crop is harvested from perennial crops, 17 from such eroded crops, respectively; 16.9; 31.5; 23.3; 141.0; 49.2 s of product was received. thus, users are exposed to 12.4 percent of cotton fields each year due to irrigation erosion; 18.6 from tobacco crops; 11.5 from corn crops; 13.7 from wheat crops; 131 less crops were harvested from spring alfalfa (first year) and 20.8 s less from perennial crops (palmet apple).[2,4,5] taking into account the above, water consumption should be observed when irrigating cotton, tobacco, corn, winter wheat, alfalfa, perennial crops with furrows and strips. this measure should be coordinated with the slope of the area, the length of the furrow, the water permeability of the soil, etc. it is better that water consumption in cotton fields should not exceed 0.8, in tobacco and corn crops 0.6-0.8 l/s, water consumption in autumn wheat and annual grass (alfalfa) crops 1.0 and 1 , should not exceed 5 l/s, and the width of irrigation strips should fluctuate between 3-5. the length of irrigation furrows in the areas where crops (tobacco, corn, perennial crops) are grown should be adjusted according to the slope of the area. thus, as the slope increases, the length of the furrow and water consumption should be reduced. in addition, the diameter of the dependencies in the water used for irrigation is also a key issue. thus, water containing particles with a diameter of 0.10 mm (especially with a diameter of 0.15 mm) is unsuitable for irrigation, but particles with a diameter of 0.10 mm to 0.005 mm are considered suitable. although such particles are suitable for improving the physical properties of the soil, such particles are low in nutrients. in contrast to the particles shown, particles smaller than 0.005 mm in diameter (especially 0.001 mm) are rich in nutrients, but their deposition in the field is fast. in addition, the use of water with such particles deteriorates the permeability and aeration of the soil. therefore, it is recommended to apply mineral and organic fertilizers to the fields from 0.10-0.005 mm diameter particles in irrigation.[4,10] application of technical means: azerbaijan's natural conditions and potential allow to develop irrigated agriculture by all means. therefore, by effectively using such opportunities, it is possible to get more and higher yields from irrigated areas. it should be noted that despite the natural conditions in our total area, 60% of such area consists of mountainous areas. technical means have a great role to play in expanding irrigation in areas that can be irrigated, both in the plains and in relatively mountainous areas. a number of technical means (artificial rain aggregates, sprinklers, water level and flow meters, pipes made of different materials, siphons, etc.) have been designed to mechanize irrigation in the former soviet union, including in our country. these devices and equipment allow you to apply advanced irrigation methods (artificial rainfall, pulse drip irrigation, small dispersal irrigation, underground irrigation, etc.). thus, "fregat", "kuban", "ksid-50", "voljanka", "dda-100 m", "dda-ma", "sigma-50", "ddn-70" and others. brand rain, “ksid-10”, “ksid10a” and others. designed for irrigating large and small areas such as. [2,3,9] as a result of the application of such machines and aggregates, soil moisture reserves are provided in equal proportions, so the growth and development of plants go hand in hand. despite all this, such technical means are not widely used in our country. it would be better if every landowner made extensive use of the technical means provided (mainly on farms) on the land allotted to him. application of artificial rainfall: artificial rainfall is one of the most advanced irrigation methods and is a reliable measure to obtain high and stable yields. as a result of this method, it is possible to carry out frequent irrigation with the application of low water norms. in addition, such irrigation can be carried out in areas with difficult terrain without leveling. the areas are ditches, canals and sazad. given these advantages of the method, the case-h at present, artificial rainfall is used in many countries around the world. it should be noted that research on doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.344 re tra cte d 20 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 artificial rainfall has been conducted in various soil-climatic zones of the former ussr. in these studies, artificial rainfall has been shown to be beneficial. for example, studies in uzbekistan have shown that the rate of water and irrigation was twice as low (520 m3/ha against 1100 m3/ha) in irrigated irrigation. while the average yield of cotton for 5 years was 26.5 cents/ha in furrow irrigation, artificial rainfall was 29.5 cents/ha or an increase of 10%. the effect of artificial rainfall on cotton productivity in azerbaijan has been studied. it was found that in contrast to the area irrigated with furrows, the productivity of cotton in the area of artificial rainfall was 2.44 sen/ ha. the effect of artificial rainfall on the development of irrigation erosion compared to the furrow method in cotton and tobacco planting areas has also been studied. it was found that the onset of runoff, liquid runoff, runoff, runoff, and nutrient leaching are significantly reduced in artificial rainfall compared to furrow irrigation. despite such advantages of artificial rainfall, it is not widely used in the country. taking this into account, this method should be widely used in the irrigated lands of our republic. artificial rainwater systems are divided into three groups: mobile, semi-stationary and stationary. the intensity of rain varies in machines and mechanisms. for example, "ki-50", "rainbow" machine 0.23 mm/ min. dda-100 m 0,17 mm/min, ddn-70-0, 40mm/min, dyp-64 “voljanka” -0,27 mm/min, dm “freqat” -0,28 mm/min, df “dnepr it has the ability to rain at an intensity of 0.28 mm/min. in order to prevent soil erosion, artificial rainwater harvesting machines should be selected based on these parameters and the mechanical composition of the soil. thus, heavy mechanical soils can use up to 0.1-0.2 mm/min, for medium mechanical soils 0.5-0.8 mm/min. in addition, the water absorption capacity of the soil must be determined. high rainfall intensity and large diameter of raindrops cause the collapse of the soil structure, hardening of the topsoil, the formation of surface water and silt flow. therefore, artificial rainfall should be associated with the background of agro-technical measures (softening of deep strips, half-escape, maintenance of buffer strips, etc.).[8 drip irrigation: drip irrigation is one of the most advanced irrigation methods. in this method of irrigation, water and nutrients are combined with the help of a special device (nutrients are added to the crop water in the form of a product) and the required amount of water is given to the plants in their root systems. this method prevents leakage and evaporation of aquatic plants in irrigation, saves 50-90% of water compared to asdi irrigation. the roots of the plant do not use extra energy to "search" for water and nutrients, and as a result, a high, high-quality and abundant harvest is obtained from each hectare. this method of irrigation is widely used in various developed countries (israel, usa, etc.). the economic efficiency of drip irrigation is great.[1,5,9] a 1978 study in bulgaria found that the yield of the krasny otlichny apple variety grown on self-irrigated land was 310.9 cents per hectare, while the yield on drip irrigation was 398.6 cents per hectare. the productivity of the variety was 282 and 310 sen / ha, respectively. extensive work is being done in poland on drip irrigation of vegetable crops. the technology of drip irrigation was developed in the former ussr, and the decision of the all-union council convened in 1977 on this issue recommended its application. this decision states that drip irrigation is an advanced irrigation method and can be applied in any relief conditions. by reducing water consumption and manual labor, it is possible to significantly increase crop yields. it should be noted that drip irrigation was first introduced in azerbaijan in the fields of vegetables, grapes and orchards. b.h.aliyev[2] and others have shown that when irrigation is applied by this method, the productivity of fruits is 20-50%, the productivity of vegetables is 50-100%, the productivity of grapes is 30-40% and so on. increases. in addition, it saves an average of 60% of water compared to other advanced irrigation methods (artificial rainfall). irrigation requires less labor and manpower. thus, while 37 people-hours were spent to irrigate one hectare of arable land per year in the method of furrow irrigation, only 2.5 man-hours were spent on drip irrigation. in addition, equipment used for drip irrigation can be installed elsewhere. this method does not require leveling the areas. most importantly, there are no conditions for the formation of fluid and sludge flow. our training figures showed that in the case of conventional irrigation, one liter of water contained 13.413.6 g / l of suspended particles, while in drip irrigation, soil washing was not observed. as a result, the productivity of drip irrigation increased by 35.7-38.5% compared to conventional irrigation. therefore, more space should be given to irrigation in this way. in this way, irrigation can be easily carried out on the farm. for this purpose, water from sub-artesian, artesian wells and water sources should be taken and discharged into special water pipes, and from there into drippers attached to doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.344 re tra cte d 21 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 humidifying hoses. due to the application of the process, manual labor is significantly reduced, and there is an opportunity to wash the soil.[2,7,6] synchronous pulse irrigation: favorable natural conditions of the republic of azerbaijan allow to meet the food needs of the people living here by all means. as mentioned above, more than 85-90% of agricultural products are taken from irrigated areas. such areas are mainly located in the plains. in such areas, mainly surface irrigation is applied. in irrigation carried out by this method, the soil surface and its profile are not evenly moistened, water loss is allowed. thus, irrigation erosion is developing in irrigated areas. in areas with a complex natural relief structure, it is not possible to apply surface irrigation methods (furrow or strip). irrigation problems can be easily solved in such areas by applying synchronous pulsed rainfall, both in the plains and in areas with complex relief structure. such irrigation equipment includes pulse sprinklers, pulse drippers and small dispersed sprinklers, etc. it should be noted that low-intensity rainfall (synchronous mode) is more environmentally safe than other irrigation methods. in synchronous mode pulsed rainfall, even in complex relief conditions, the process of erosion is completely eliminated. such irrigation is carried out with "ksid10" pulsed rain device. with such a device it is possible to irrigate areas equal to 10 ha, and sometimes more. its main principle of operation is to work continuously. for this purpose, the signal to the water distributor regulates the operation of the pumping station. [4,11] water enters the pipeline from the pumping station, and from there the impulse rainwater. its subsequent operation automatically repeats and regulates rainfall. in this case, the supply of water is characterized by its duration and intensity. it also differs by 3 types of irrigation. the first of them is absolutely synchronous, the second is synchronous, and the third is asynchronous. in absolute synchronous irrigation, water is supplied according to the intensity of water demand with irrigation and daily cycle, and in synchronous irrigation with the same ton of water per day. asynchronous is given in a broad sense, in all cases the water regime of the soil is improved, and washing is eliminated. soil-protective role of alfalfa: prolonged use of soils in the same area for one plant reduces the amount of nutrients (organic and mineral) in them, deteriorates their water-physical properties. this is later evident in the productivity of agricultural crops. therefore, in order to increase soil fertility and its efficient use, technological, reclamation and organizational measures are taken in accordance with the natural-economic, soil-climatic conditions of the area.[13] all this is the basis of the agricultural system. due to the properties of the soil and the productivity of the main crop, perennial grasses, especially alfalfa, are considered a good predecessor of all agricultural crops. as is known, they have strong and branched shaft roots. such roots go to the depth of 0.5-1.0 m, sometimes more, and bind soil aggregates like a "spider web". in addition, the tuber bacteria that form in its root system absorb nitrogen from the air and enrich the soil with nitrogen. the clover's protective role is even greater. according to the literature, the root system of alfalfa accumulates up to 60 quintals of organic mass in 0-40 cm, depending on the degree of leaching of the soil within two years. this mass increases the fertility of the washed soils and helps to prevent irrigation erosion.[10,12] 3. results and suggestions as it is known, the main indicator of soil fertility is water, air, biological and nutrient regime, which depends on the structure of the soil. depending on the structure of azerbaijani soils, it is fine-grained (aggregate size more than 10 mm), granular-topar or macrostructure (aggregate size from 1 mm to 1 mm). mesostructure (aggregate size from 0.25 to 1 mm) ), microstructure (aggregate size from 0.01 mm to 0.25 mm) and ultrastructure (aggregate size from 0.001 mm to 0.01 mm). of these, the most agronomically useful are only aggregates with small clusters and granular structure. they are is also 0.25-1.0 mm in diameter. such structural aggregates retain their qualities (disintegration, water resistance, etc.) when used for long-term plant cultivation. the application of 3: 7 crop rotation is considered expedient.[6,8] in the first scheme, cotton plantations will account for 66.6 percent of total plantings, 57.1 percent of medium-washed soils, 50.0 percent of heavily washed soils and 70.0 percent of moderately washed soils. accumulated fertility is sufficient for 2-3, on moderately eroded soils 3-4, on heavily washed soils 5-6 and on moderately washed soils 6-7. source of literature used: [1] aliyev, g. a. soils of the big caucasus within the azerbaijan ssr. elm publishing house. baku 1978, 157. [2] aliyev, b. h., aliyev, z. h. and aliyev, i. n. problems erosion in azerbaijan and said russian ways of its solution. ziyaya-nurlan publishing house. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.344 re tra cte d 22 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 baku 2000, 12. [3] aliyev, b. h., aliyev, z. h. technique and technology of low-intensity irrigation in the conditions of the mountainous region of azerbaijan. elm publishing house. baku 1999, 220. [4] aliyev, b. h., aliyev, z. h. irrigated agriculture in the mountainous and foothill regions of azerbaijan. ziyaya-nurlan publishing house. baku 2005, 330. [5] aliyev, b. h., aliyev, i. n. some problems of agriculture in azerbaijan and ways to solve them. ziyaya-nurlan publishing house. baku 2004, 572. (in azeri language) [6] babayev, m. a., jafarov, m. etc. modern pochennyj cover of the greater caucasus. baku 2017, 344. (in azeri language) [7] biodiversity and climate diversity. agi, unep 2007. http: «www. cbd.int /doc/ bioday/2007/ibd -2007 booklet-01-ru. pdf» [8] international center for agricultural research in dry and arid regions (icarda) irrigation regime and monitoring technique. edited by u. umarov and a. karimov c. taraz: ic "aqua". 2002, 128. [9] nosenko, v. f. irrigation in the mountains. kolos publishing house. moscow 1981, 143. [10] markov, y. a. irrigation of collective and household gardens of the agricultural organization. agropromizdat leningrad 1989, 64. [11] vernadsky, v. i. works on the general history of science. nauka. 1908. [12] mamedov, r. q. agrofizicheskaja characteristics of soil priaraksinskoj stripes. 1970, 321. [13] shyhlinskij, e. m. climate in azerbaijan. baku 1968, 341. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.344 re tra cte d 6 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.343 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae use and management of animal manure by the communal farmers, seke district, mashonaland east province, zimbabwe parwada c1,2*　chigiya v1,3　ngezimana w1　chipomho j1　bandason w2　nyamushamba g.b2 1.marondera university of agricultural sciences and technology, department of horticulture, p. o. box 35 marondera, zimbabwe. 2.faculty of agricultural sciences, department of horticulture, women’s university in africa, p.o. box 1175, marondera, zimbabwe 3.seke teachers college, mangwende road, 16120, chitungwiza p.o. box sk 41, seke, zimbabwe article info abstract article history received: 9 february 2021 accepted: 28 february 2021 published online: 30 march 2021 poor handling and storage practices reduce the manure quality as a fertilizer. a survey was done in the seke communal area, zimbabwe to establish common manure management practices, determine factors that influence use of manure and determine effects of the manure management practices on vegetable yield. a structured questionnaire was administered to 222 respondents from april to august 2019. both descriptive and inferential statistics were done using spss. chi-square tests and spearman rank correlation were done to test for associations and the non-causeeffect relationship between different independent variables and farmers’ management practice of manure respectively. 88% of the respondents owned <1 ha of land and chicken manure was frequently (51%) used but with least (<0.5 t/ha) application quantities. cattle manure was applied in largest (> 0.5 t/ha) quantities and >50% of the farmers were void of information on animal manure management. fencing only was the common type of animal housing but had negative effects on quantity and quality of the manure. drylot was most common (90%) manure management practice and different manure management practices had significantly (p<0.05) varied effects on vegetable yield. drying manure resulted in significantly (p<0.05) low losses in manure quality. generally, poultry and pigs manure had higher nutrient content compared to cattle and goat manure. animal housing affected the quantity and quality of the manures as a fertilizer. extension service programs like vocational training on manure management, exposure visits between farmers as well as a lead farm approach are necessary. keywords: animal housing drying extension services soil fertility training volatilization 　 1. introduction the sub-saharan african (ssa) has the highest prevalence of undernourishment and the highest rise in proportion of people who are food insecure caused by poor soil fertility, particularly low soil nitrogen (n) (wuta and nyamugafata, 2012). fertilizer consumption in most ssa countries is estimated to <6 kg ha-1 e.g in mozambique *corresponding author: parwada c, marondera university of agricultural sciences and technology, department of horticulture, p. o. box 35 marondera, zimbabwe; faculty of agricultural sciences, department of horticulture, women’s university in africa, p.o. box 1175, marondera, zimbabwe; e-mail: cparwada@gmail.com 7 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.343 and zimbabwe which is far below the recommended rates by 10-50 % (rusinamhodzi et al., 2013) compared to countries such as malawi (40 kg ha-1) and south africa (62 kg ha-1). the general use of fertilizer in countries like zimbabwe is below average the level in ssa estimated at 14.7 kg ha-1. it further falls way below the abuja declaration on fertilizer use for an african green revolution that emphasizes the increase of fertilizer use in ssa from 8 to 50 kg ha-1 by 2015 (bindraban et al., 2018). most communal farmers in the ssa region do not afford to buy commercial fertilizers thereby use low (on average ≤8 kg n ha−1 yr−1) fertilizer application rates (agra, 2013). the low fertilizer application rates resulted in a higher nitrogen (n) uptake by crops than the n input from fertilizer (jakhro et al., 2017). this mining of nutrients contributes to soil depletion which then limits agricultural sustainability. alternatively, farmers can use cheap on-farm sources of fertilizers e.g the animal manure. animal manure has been used as a fertilizer since the ancient times and if well-managed it can promote sustainable agriculture and increase crop production, especially in the resource constrained smallholder farmers (agra, 2013). the manure contains important plant nutrients such as n, phosphorus (p), potassium (k), and other secondary nutrients and trace elements, with farmers all over the world having discovered its benefits and associated it with increased crop production (efthimiadou et al., 2012). the animal manure, unlike synthetic fertilizers, also provides organic matter that can enhance soil infiltration rates, improve water holding capacity, increase cation-exchange capacity (cec) (parwada and van tol, 2018), and increase soil c (wuta and nyamugafata, 2012). nevertheless, most communal farmers in the ssa e.g zimbabwe lack recommended manure management practices, such as roofing animal housing, having a water-proof floor or covering manure during storage, causing large nutrient losses during manure storage, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and reducing the quality of the manure as a fertilizer (agra, 2013). close to 70 % of the communal farmers in zimbabwe rely on the integrated crop-livestock production system for their livelihoods (matarauka and samaz, 2014). livestock benefits from crop residues during drier months when grazing is scarce and the nutritive value of grass is low ( mariaselvam et al., 2015). the manure from cattle is used in crop fields with or without inorganic fertilisers (larney et al., 2006). cattle manure is commonly used for enhancing soil fertility in the farming sector of zimbabwe; however, its fertilizer value is frequently reduced due to poor handling and management (wuta and nyamugafata, 2012). oftentimes, the smallholder farmers do not have access to technological inputs, which makes them heavily dependent on land resources for their outputs. however, the poor soil fertility has been widely accepted as a major factor limiting the agricultural productivity of smallholder farms in africa as a whole (agra, 2013). the manure is usually collected from animal houses e.g cattle kraals, fowl runs and pig stays. after collection, the manure can be stored or composted before use, and nutrient losses may occur through leaching and volatilization (rufino et al., 2006). regardless of the encountered losses of nutrients during storage, manure is still considered a valuable output of livestock. the principal factors that influence nutrient composition of manure are type of livestock, growth stage and feeding practices as well as the amount and type of bedding or water added to the manure, type of manure storage, time that the manure is stored and weather conditions (jakhro et al., 2017). the type and quantity of bedding materials determines if the manure will be managed as solid, semi-solid or liquid (mariaselvam et al., 2015). bedding can include wood chips, rice or peanut hull, sawdust, flax straw, wheat straw and recycled paper products. improvement of manure quality can be enhanced through effective handling management practices, resulting to increased soil productivity (matarauka and samaz, 2014). the effectiveness of animal manure as a fertilizer depends critically on its handling and storage methods, and on synchronizing mineralization of manure n with crop uptake (rufino et al., 2006). a well-managed manure, increases soil and crop productivity, but associated with other co-benefits, like reducing nitrate (no-3) and phosphorus (p) leaching, as well as reducing both ammonia (nh3) volatilization and nitrous oxide (n2o) and methane (ch4) emissions (efthimiadou et al., 2012). however, poor manure management can lead to the outbreak of zoonotic diseases in humans (mariaselvam et al., 2015). farmers can adopt practices that efficiently integrate use of manure in crop production in order to optimize the benefits from the manure. nevertheless, the manure management practices in the resource poor communal farmers is still unknown in zimbabwe. the objectives of this study was to describe the common manure management practices in the communal farming system, determine the factors that affect use of manure as a fertilizer and establish the effects of various manure management practices on vegetable yield. 2. methodology 2.1 site description the survey was carried out in wards 7 (18o 01’ 98” s and 31o 06’ 79” e) in seke communal area, zimbabwe. 8 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 the seke area is situated about 36 km south of harare the capital city of zimbabwe. the study area is in agro-ecological region iib. it is characterised by hot wet summers (rainy season) (october to april) and cold dry winters (may to july). the area receives an average annual rainfall of 850 mm and an average maximum and minimum temperatures are 25.3 ℃ and 12.2°c respectively. the seke is known to have high inter-annual rainfall variability with a coefficient of variation of between 23–40%. the predominant soil type is sandy textured soils derived from granitic parent material, classified as lixisol (fao soil classification). 2.2 research methodology (1) sampling procedure and data collection a manure management practices survey using an exploratory soil survey in april-august 2019. a total of 222 horticultural farmers were sampled from the seke district, zimbabwe. the data was collected at the farm level, with the unit of study being the household. the focus was on one ward with a total population of 1250 households and three villages selected at random. the villages experience a similar rainfall and cropping pattern. a multistage sampling procedure was used, involving random sampling of three villages, stratified according to farming activities and wealth status and a resultant random selection of participating households. key informant interviews were carried out on agricultural extension officers from the area. a questionnaire was used to interview a total of 222 households randomly selected from the selected three villages. at least 74 households from each of the villages were interviewed by trained enumerators using shona, the local vernacular language. (2) manure sampling and analysis a sub-sample of 15 farmers was randomly obtained from the 222 farmers used in the survey. then a 500 g of manure (i.e drying, composting and anaerobic digestion) was randomly sampled from the bulk treated manure. a total of 45 samples were taken for analysis. the manure ph and ecs were measured in a soil water suspension (ratio of 1:5) using a tps meter as described by okalebo et al. (2000). the c & n in the manure were determined using a method described by parwada and van tol (2018). the olsen extractable p, exchangeable ammonium and nitrate and nitrite were determined as was described by parwada et al. (2018). (3) data analysis data collected from the field was analysed with the statistical package for social sciences (spss) version 23 and microsoft excel. both descriptive and inferential statistics were used. descriptive statistics were mainly frequency tables and percentage indices, while inferential statistics the spearman rank correlation. the chi-square tests of independence were used to test for associations of manure management with the demographic variables. the spearman rank correlation was done to measure the noncause-effect relationship between different independent variables and farmers’ management practice of manure. 3. results and discussions 3.1 demographic information the seke communal area is characterised by more females (52%) than males (48%) who are involved in farming (table 1). most (45%) of the respondents were 31-40 years old, 46% used poultry manure as a source of fertilizer and 48% had primary and secondary (level 1) education. the majority (88%) own <1 ha of land and horticulture farming (78%) is the main land use in the study area (table 1). table 1. respondent profiles % of respondents gender women 52 men 48 age (years old) 18-30 9 31-40 45 41-60 32 >61 14 common sources of manure cattle 18 goat and/sheep 33 chicken 46 others 3 land size (ha) <1 88 1-2.9 11 >3 1 education* level 0 14 level 1 48 level 2 38 main sources of income farming (horticulture) 78 employment other farming 14 other sources 8 *level 0 = no formal education, level 1= primary & education school, level 2= tertiary doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.343 9 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 the observed demographic structure in the seke communal area could be due to high rural-urban migration by the males. women are usually left behind in the rural areas while their husbands migrate to urban areas seeking employment opportunities. a similar rural demographic structure due to the rural-urban migration was observed by fao (2006) who noted a majority of smallholder farmers in rural zimbabwe to be women. additionally, at least 86% of the zimbabwean women are dependent on the land for income (fao 2006). these findings are consistent with arex (2004) who concur that a greater number of women constitute unpaid family farm workforce where they work for 16-18 hours a day. at least 49 % of their time is devoted to farming activities and about 25% on domestic activities (zimstat, 2014). unfortunately, out of the vast arable land area in zimbabwe, very little of it is owned by women (mudavanhu et al., 2012). this skewed land ownership toward the men could be the reason for the high frequency response on respondents with <1 ha of land (table 1). regardless of the fact that the women constitute a larger population than men in zimbabwe (zimstat, 2014), majority of rural women lack property ownership, and women’s access to land is only through their husbands, fathers, brothers or sons (mudavanhu et al., 2012). 3.2 types of livestock and manure quantity chicken and pigs are the most (>50%) and less common (1%) owned type of livestock respectively. a few farmers (<8%) indicated they own cattle in the seke communal area (figure 1). figure 1. percentage response on the common type of animals owned in the seke communal area, zimbabwe the chicken manure was most (51%) frequently used as a fertilizer but with the least (<0.5 t/ha) application quantities whereas the cattle manure was commonly applied in largest (> 0.5 t ha) quantities (figure 2). figure 2. percentage use of manure (t ha-1 yr-1) per animal at the seke communal area, zimbabwe usually the chicken manure is produced in smaller quantities than the cattle manure. the farmers would frequently apply the chicken manure on small vegetable beds (usually 2 m2 each in size) in their home gardens at least 2 twice a year depending on the type of vegetable. however, the farmers rely on the cattle manure for their fields because they would want to apply on a large (>2 m2) area. the chicken could not produce enough manure to cover their fields but the cattle kraals would produce a significantly high quantity of manure. 3.3 knowledge of manure management practices many farmers (>50%) indicated that they were void of information on animal manure management (table 2). there were significant (p<0.05) associations between the availability of manure management information and demographics (gender, age and education). women who were >61 years old and >level 1 of education showed to have information on the manure management, whereas the less educated (<level 1) men lacked the knowledge on manure management (table 2). the lack of information on manure management was cited as the most (90% of respondent) crucial constraint to enhanced manure management (table 2). the farmers showed to have insufficient knowledge on the manure management practices and their potential benefits especially at the household level. the problem is usually aggravated by the exclusion of manure management in most agricultural extension training schemes (matarauka and samaz, 2014). at least 90% of respondents affirmed that they apply cattle manure yearly and 84% applied goat manure biannually. old age (31+ years old) with high education (level 1+) mostly applied the animal manure biannual (table 2). eighty five percent and 9 % of the respondents showed that the animal manure was readily available and unavaildoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.343 10 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 able respectively. only 6% of the respondents indicated that they do not own any of the animal types hence manure was unavailable (table 2). gender, age, common sources of manure and education significantly (p<0.05) influenced the manure availability and management practices in the seke area (table 2). all (100%) respondents claimed positive and significant (p<0.05) associations between the common manure management practices (drying, composting and anaerobic digestion) and crop yield benefits, gender, age and level of education (p < 0.05) (table 2). the manure from various animals is readily available in the seke communal area however, poorly managed. animal housing is poorly constructed, commonly fencing only (figure 3) so the manure is exposed to adverse weather conditions leading to rapid reduction in quality. farmers indicated lack of information on the proper management of the manure. this suggests that much of the manure may be lost both in the quantity and quality if the community is not educated on the handling and storage of the manure. 3.4 livestock housing and manure collection figure 3. animal confinement used in the manure collection and management in the seke area, zimbabwe. forty one percent and 48% of the respondents indicated table 2. the percentage of the respondent on the knowledge of manure management in seke, ward 7, zimbabwe (n=222). % respondents all gender age (years old) common sources of manure education** women men 18-30 31-40 41-60 >61 cattle goat chicken others level 0 level 1 level 2 availability of information on manure use and management yes 10 20 4 3* 5* 28* 26* 1* 8* 11* no 90 35 16 38* 19* 9* 4* 3* 5* 3* frequency of manure application never 88 12 26 12* 14* 5* 0 2* 10* 0* 0* 8* 0* 0* yearly 10 8 65 9* 50* 4* 12* 90* 6* 88* 75* 63* 13* 2* biannually 2 78 9 79* 60* 91* 88* 8* 84* 12* 25* 29* 87* 98* yield benefits of using manure yes 100 80* 99* 95* 99* 98* 97* 99* 98* 94* 100* 100* 97* 99* no 0 20* 1* 5* 1* 2* 3* 1* 2* 6* 0* 0* 3* 1* availability of manure readily available 85 79* 88* 93* 94* 95* 99* 92* 97* 99* 100* 93* 93* 1* unavailable 9 1* 2* 2* 4* 4* 1* 2* 2* 0* 0* 4* 7* 99* do not own animals 6 20* 10* 5* 2* 1* 0* 6* 1* 1* 3* 3* 0* 0* common manure treatment practices drying (july-september) 82 70* 88* 77* 91* 80* 8* 76* 82* 75* 86* 50* 9* 10* compositing anaerobic digestion 5 13 10* 20* 1* 11* 2* 21* 0* 9* 6* 14* 1* 91* 12* 12* 8* 10* 10* 15* 5* 9* 50* 15* 26* 65* 0* 80* *p<0.05: for each chi-square test, the percentage shown represent column proportions. **level 0 = no formal education, level 1= primary & education school, level 2= tertiary (a holder of at least a certificate up to a phd) doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.343 11 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 that they confined cattle and goats by fencing only/tying respectively. the chickens were confined mostly (55%) by fencing with floor and roof (figure 3). animal housing affects the quantity and quality of manure. in the communal areas of zimbabwe, cattle are usually herded in grazing areas during the day and penned at night in kraals located nearer the homestead (nzuma and murwira, 2000). this results in more manure being collected during the night than day. if penned all day, one livestock unit (1 lu = 500 kg live mass) can produce about 1.5 t of recoverable manure per year (mugwira and murwira, 1997). the manure that accumulates in the kraals is then dug out towards the end of winter season (july) and heaped to cure for at least three months before use. however, the amount of usable manure that cattle can provide depends on several factors such as the amount of feed, the feeding method (pen rearing, kraaling the animals at night or free range) and the manure collection efficiency. manure produced at the grazing sites is difficult to collect and usually is not used for crop production at all. scavenging animals, in particular the chickens (road runners), deposited most of their manure around the household, which was not usually collected. the heaping of manure is done to improve the quality of the manure as a fertilizer as it argued that organic manures are usually late in nutrient mineralization. hence, the need to cure the manures in order to reduce the time of mineralization on the field (jakhro et al., 2017). the nature of the animal house can regulate the temperature around the manure and affects its quality. the temperature strongly influences all microbiological processes where higher temperatures lead to higher rates of nitrification, denitrification and decomposition of organic manure (rufino et al., 2006). fencing with roofing and floor can moderate the temperature and reduce the rate of quality loss in the manure. considering that more than 48% of the farmers did not put floor nor roof the cattle and goats houses, nitrates will be formed faster and leached the manure. in a fenced only house, the manure will be in direct contact with the soil hence increasing the rate of nutrient leaching from the manure. during the rainy season, fencing the animal house only will promote leaching of no3, p, other nutrients and organo-chlorines (hao and chang, 2013). the poultry manure was commonly collected as a mixture of bedding material, feed waste, flushing water, feathers, soil together with the chicken excreta that will obviously affect the nutrient content. the bedding put in the chicken houses can conserve nutrients in the manure if it partly covers the manure and can prevent ammonia volatilization (mariaselvam et al., 2015). however, the bedding can increase the c:n of the manure (table 4) because the bedding materials (e.g., straw) usually have lower n concentration than the animal excreta resulting to increased organic carbon content in the manure (rufino et al., 2006). the increasing c:n ratio will enhance n immobilization by soil microbes reducing volatilization losses (efthimiadou et al., 2012). however, proper timing of application is very critical as the n immobilization by microbes may reduce n availability for the growing crop. 3.5 manure management practice and application approach the common type of manure categories in the seke communal area were the solid/drylot (90%), mixed (60%) and liquid (40%) manure. the manure categories were dependent on the animal type where the drylot was common with chicken, cattle and goat manure but pig manure was mostly managed as liquid (figure 4). figure 4. the common animal manure categories used for vegetable production in the seke communal area, zimbabwe. there are many different manure storage systems (chang and entz, 2016), however in the seke district, the farmers used solid storages with no collection or storage of urine. in the drylot systems where animals graze freely during the day and spend the nights inside the kraal, the manure is managed as a drylot system, the animals deposit much of the manure in the kraal which is allowed to pile up before infrequent collection. (table 2). in other systems where animals are confined (such as in zero grazing), dung is collected and stored in heaps, mostly without a hard floor or cover. 90% of the respondents indicated that they use the drylot management practice mainly with the chicken, goat and cattle manure (figure 4). in this management practice, the urine was not collected and bedding was sparsely used. this could result in high losses of n and k in particdoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.343 12 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 ular as most of the urine is lost. coupled with the animal housing and manure storage facilities together with time, part of the nutrients in the manure can be leached and lost through surface runoff during rain and uncovered manure. the collection of the urine in the case of floored and roofed animal houses will reduce k losses. using bedding, with sufficient absorption capacity to capture urine, might reduce n losses (hao and chang, 2013). less than 30% of the respondents indicated that they used a liquid system (mainly from pigs). in this manure management practice, the faeces and urine are stored together. in the liquid system, the volatilization losses will be dependent on the level of ventilation, depth of storage tanks and storage time, but often range between 5 and 35% of the total n excreted (matarauka and samaz, 2014). in the liquid manure, approximately 50% of the n is nh3-n in solution and the nh3 has high vapour pressure so it will readily volatilize upon exposing the manure to the air (chang and entz, 2016). the greater the exposure, i.e. a larger specific area in contact with the air, the more nh3 volatilization. quality loss will be high if the manure is stored directly in contact with the soil (fence only house) and the liquid can seep into the soil leaching the n, p, k, organic and other compounds. 3.6 effects of animal manure treatment and application method on vegetable production the farmers indicated to apply the manure in holes, furrows or broadcast on different types of vegetables (table 3). the manure application method was significantly (p<0.05) influenced by the manure treatment method and the crop type. the hole application method was significantly (p<0.05) influenced by drying the manure on all the vegetables grown in the seke communal area (table 3). anaerobic digestion did not significantly (p>0.05) influence the manure application method in all the grown vegetables. the farmers in the seke communal area preferred drying with hole application of manure to anaerobic digestion (table 3). the method of manure application is very important as it determines the effectiveness of the manure as a fertilizer. manure should be incorporated into the soil immediately after application, in order to retain more nutrients for plant growth (mugwira and murwira, 1997). larney et al. (2006) noted that about 90% of n from liquid manure will be available for plant growth if incorporated within 8 h compared to only 40% n availability if incorporated 5–7 days application. it is worth noting that in the seke table 3. spearman rank correlation coefficient (rs) on effects of manure treatment and application methods on yield of selected common crops in seke district, zimbabwe manure treatment methods crop application method drying composting anaerobic digestion hole 0.69* 0.53* 0.34 leaf vegetables furrow 0.71** 0.42 0.28 broadcast 0.33 0.38 0.17 hole 0.63* 0.61* 0.50 tomatoes furrow 0.55* 0.70** 0.30 broadcast 0.43 0.37 0.21 hole 0.73** 0.70* 0.32 potatoes furrow 0.59* 0.45 0.22 broadcast 0.36 0.30 0.16 hole 0.50* 0.39 0.30 cucumber furrow 0.48 0.24 0.25 broadcast 0.28 0.19 0.14 onion hole 0.57* 0.65* 0.44 furrow 0.43 0.44 0.29 broadcast 0.34 0.26 0.17 * and ** means significant at p = 0.05 and 0.001 respectively doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.343 13 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 communal area, the urine and liquid manure are not often managed or applied to agricultural soils, but are left to (over) flow, so they either end up in the soil or washed into water bodies without any treatment. the manure treatment methods had varied effects on the manure quality where the drying preserved more nutrients from loss compared to the composting and anaerobic digestion (table 4). however, the nutrient content of the manure per animal type varied significantly depending on the used manure treatment method. generally, the chicken manure had the lowest c/n ratios across all the three treatment methods compared to the cattle and goat manure. the nutrient composition of manure at the time of application and its ability to provide nutrients for crop growth is influenced by the initial nutrient status of manure and on its management (larney et al., 2006). the initial nutrient content of manure depends primarily on the animal type or breed, feeding practice and feed quality. table 4 shows the composition of different manures, where poultry manure contains the highest nutrient concentrations. general, monogastrics (poultry and pigs) produced manure of higher nutrient content as compared to ruminants (cattle and goat) (table 4) though, by quantity most of the manure available on farms was from cattle and goats (figure 2). the manure management practices can alter the manure quality by modifying the effects of environmental conditions such as temperature, rainfall and humidity that usually influence the rate of nutrient loss from the manure (nzuma and murwira, 2000). the choice of manure treatment coupled with the housing type can modify the quality of the manure. usually the fencing only is associated with higher rates of quality loss than the fencing and flooring and the fencing with floor and roof (figure 3). drying and composting did maintain the table 4. effects of different manure treatment practices on its nutritional quality in the seke communal area, zimbabwe. manure source parameter drying composting anaerobic digestion ph (h2o) 7.9±0.2 7.6±0.2 7.2±0.2 ec (cmol(+)kg-1) 590.3±20.3 400.2±20.3 234.0±20.3 total c (%) 28.9±5.1 19.0±5.1 7.1±5.1 cattle total n (%) 1.1±0.1 0.8±0.1 0.2±0.1 c:n ratio 26.3±0.5 23.8±0.5 35.5±0.5 olsen extractable p (mg kg-1) 910.0±11.2 804.4±11.2 304.4±11.2 extractable nh4 (mg kg-1) 278.2±8.4 261.6±8.4 123.6±8.4 ph (h2o) 7.5±0.2 7.2±0.2 7.8±0.2 ec (cmol(+)kg-1) 617.3±20.3 502.5±20.3 278.1±20.3 total c (%) 21.4±5.1 19.9±5.1 10.4±5.1 goat total n (%) 2.1±0.4 1.1±0.4 0.4±0.4 c:n ratio 10.2±0.5 18.1±0.5 26.0±0.5 olsen extractable p (mg kg-1) 1200.0±11.2 1198.1±11.2 682.7±11.2 extractable nh4 (mg kg-1) 258.3±8.4 243.6±8.4 118.2±8.4 ph (h2o) 7.1±0.2 7.8±0.2 7.9±0.2 ec (cmol(+)kg-1) 634.4±20.3 569.1±20.3 323.8±20.3 total c (%) 13.6±5.1 12.7±5.1 10.7±5.1 chicken total n (%) 8.15±0.8 7.06±0.8 2.1±0.8 c:n ratio 1.7±0.5 1.8±0.5 5.1±0.5 olsen extractable p (mg kg-1) 1524.0±11.2 1456.7±11.2 867.6±11.2 extractable nh4 (mg kg-1) 321.3±8.4 241.6±8.4 165.0±8.4 ph (h2o) 7.8±0.2 7.7±0.2 7.9±0.2 ec (cmol(+)kg-1) 516.5±20.3 410.3±20.3 299.1±20.3 total c (%) 13.9±5.1 11.8±5.1 8.2±5.1 pigs total n (%) 6.13±0.3 3.9±0.3 0.9±0.3 c:n ratio 2.3±0.5 3.0±0.5 9.1±0.5 olsen extractable p (mg kg-1) 1034.0±11.2 998.5±11.2 578.7±11.2 extractable nh4 (mg kg-1) 289.5±8.4 273.8±8.4 152.1±8.4 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.343 14 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 nutrient content of the manure but the anaerobic digestion resulted in high loss of nutrients from the manure (table 4). in the anaerobic digestion, much of the carbon and nitrogen are converted into gas and little nutrients will be left (table 4) for crop growth therefore most farmers do not benefit much from this type of manure hence rarely used (table 3). 4. conclusion and recommendations the major type of animal housing (fence only) in the study is prone to high losses in manure quality. manure collection was ineffective because a large part of the manure is uncollected, especially faeces produced by scavenging animals like cattle and chicken. the manure was commonly treated by drying, composting and anaerobic digestion and drying preserved more nutrients from loss compared to the other treatment methods. the farmers preferred drying and hole application of the manure on vegetables production to other practices. however, gender, age, education and a lack of information limited the use and management of the animal manure. a large number of farmers stored the manure on unroofed and permeable floors resulting in high nutrient losses from the manure by rain and sun. well managed animal manure can unlock numerous benefits like the modification of soil properties e.g increased soil water holding capacity thereby increasing crop productivity under low rainfall. there is need to avail information on manure management among the farmers through extension services aiming at capacity building like vocational training, exposure visits between farmers as well as a lead farm approach of extension. at the household level, farmers should fence, floor and roof the animal houses aiming at improving the quantity and quality of the animal manure. further research on the use of manure and demonstrate the suitability and benefits well managed manure are required. acknowledgements the research did not receive any specific funding, but was performed as part of employment at the marondera university of agricultural sciences and technology and the women’s university in africa, zimbabwe. the authors gratefully acknowledge the communal farmers in the ward 7, seke district, zimbabwe for allowing us to carry this study in their area. competing interests the authors declare that they have no competing interests data availability statement the raw data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request. references [1] agra. 2013. africa agriculture status report: focus on staple crops. nairobi: alliance for green revolution in africa (agra). available online at: http:// agra-alliance.org/download/533977a50dbc7/ [2] arex. 2004. zimbabwe. dept. of agricultural research & extension “national report.” volume 3, harare. [3] bindraban, p., mose, l., hillen, m., gonzalez, m. r., voogt, m., leenaars, j., langeveld, k. and heerink, n. 2018. smart fertilization and water management kenya – netherlands aid-and-trade opportunities. ifdc report 2018/1. international fertilizer research center, muscle shoals, alabama, usa pp.102. [4] chang, c and entz, t. 2016. nitrate leaching losses under repeated cattle feedlot manure applications in southern alberta. j. environ. qual. 25: 145-153 [5] efthimiadou, a., froud-williams, r.j., eleftherohorinos, i., karkanis, a, and bilalis, d.j. 2012. effects of organic and inorganic amendments on weed management in sweet maize. international journal of plant production 6, 291–307 [6] fao. 2006. world reference base for soil resources 2006: a framework for international classification, correlation, and communication. world soil resources reports, 103: 145. [7] hao, x and chang, c. 2013. does long-term heavy cattle manure application increase salinity of a clay loam soil in semi-arid southern alberta. agriculture ecosystems and environment, 94: 89-103. [8] jakhro, m. i., shah, s.i., amanullah, a., zehri, m.y., rahujo, z.a., ahmed, s and jakhro, m.a. 2017. growth and yield of spinach (spinacia oleracia) under fluctuating levels of organic and inorganic fertilizers. international journal of development research. 7: 11454-11460. [9] larney, f.j., sullivan, d.m., buckley, k.e and eghball, b. 2006. the role of composting in recycling manure nutrients. can. j. soil sci. 86: 597–611. [10] mariaselvam, a.a, dandeniya, w.s., indraratne, s.p and dharmakeerthi, r.s. 2015. “high c/n materials mixed with cattle manure as organic amendments to improve soil productivity and nutrient availability.” tropical agricultural research 25 (2): 201. https://doi.org/10.4038/tar.v25i2.8142 [11] matarauka, d and samaz, m. 2014. “organization of doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.343 15 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 manure from ruminant (cattle and goat) in wedza smallholder farming area, zimbabwe.” international journal of manures and fertilizers. vol. 3. www. internationalscholarsjournals.org [12] mudavanhu, v., muchabaiwa, l., chigusiwa, l., bindu, s., mapfumo, t., karambakuwa, r and chingarande, a. 2012. the role of women in reducing absolute poverty in rural zimbabwe: a case study of bindura district (2008 to 2011). international journal of management sciences and business research 1 (10): issn (2226-8235) [13] mugwira, l.m and murwira, h.k. 1997. “use of cattle manure to improve soil fertility in zimbabwe : past and current research and future zimbabwe : past and current research and future,” no. 2: 1–33 [14] nzuma, j.k and murwira, h.k. 2000. improving the management of manure in zimbabwe. managing africa’s soil. russel press, nottingham. 15: 20. [15] okalebo, j.b., gathua, k.w and woomer, p.l. 2000. laboratory methods of soil and plant analysis: a working manual. tsbf-kari-unesco, nairobi, kenya [16] parwada, c and van tol, j. 2018. effects of litter source on the dynamics of particulate organic matter fractions and rates of macroaggregate turnover in different soil horizons. european journal of soil science. doi: 10.1111/ejss.12726 [17] rufino, m. c., rowe, e. c., delve, r. j and giller, k. e. 2006. nitrogen cycling efficiencies through resource-poor african crop-livestock systems. agric. ecosys. environ. 112, 261–282. doi: 10.1016/ j.agee.2005. 08.028 [18] rusinamhodzi, l., corbeels, m., zingore, s., nyamangara, j and giller, k.e., 2013. pushing the envelope? maize production intensification and the role of cattle manure in the recovery of degraded soils in smallholder farming areas of zimbabwe. field crops [19] wuta, m and nyamugafata, p. 2012. management of cattle and goat manure in wedza smallholder farming area, zimbabwe. african journal of agricultural research. 7: 3853-3859. [20] zimstat. 2014. compendium of statistics 2014. harare, zimbabwe. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.343 13 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://journals.nasspublishing.com/index.php/rwae copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.835 1. introduction the global demand for biomass for food, energy, and chemical uses has led to a rapid expansion of oil palm tree (elaeis guineensis jacq.) plantations in southeast asia, central africa, latin america and the caribbean [1]. it was estimated that by 2050 the worldwide oil palm plantations are expected to increase from 14.6 million hectares in 2010 to 31.1 million hectares [2]. moreover, oil palm cultivation has become a major source of income for many countries in the tropics and subtropics, contributing significantly to the provision of private and community received: 4 april 2023; received in revised form: 10 may 2023; accepted: 15 may 2023; published: 22 may 2023 citation: pulighe, g., 2023. navigating the path to sustainable oil palm cultivation: addressing nexus challenges and solutions. research on world agricultural economy. 4(2), 835. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.835 *corresponding author: giuseppe pulighe, crea, research centre for agricultural policies and bioeconomy, via barberini 36, 00187 rome, italy; email: giuseppe.pulighe@crea.gov.it short communication navigating the path to sustainable oil palm cultivation: addressing nexus challenges and solutions giuseppe pulighe* crea, research centre for agricultural policies and bioeconomy, via barberini 36, 00187 rome, italy abstract: global palm oil demand for energy, food, and chemical uses has led to a rapid expansion of tree plantations in southeast asia, central africa, latin america and the caribbean. this oil tree is the world’s most productive, highly profitable and traded vegetable oil crop, and the demand is expected to increase further in the near future. nevertheless, oil palm expansion involves risks and nexus challenges. this work supports the idea that disruptive farming intensification, instead of land expansion, could scale up productivity, reducing the anthropogenic pressure on tropical forests and biodiversity losses. findings from recent studies suggest that there is considerable scope for further yield improvements per hectare of palm oil with sustainable agronomic practices and farming intensification. smallholder producers, agribusiness investors, civil society actors, ngos, governments, researchers, and industry should make coordinated efforts with regulatory and support schemes and landscape design to increase yield and productivity with sustainable management practices and to achieve zero deforestation by protecting ecosystems. keywords: land-use changes; ecosystem services; sustainable intensification; deforestation; tree plantations http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.835 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.835 mailto:giuseppe.pulighe@crea.gov.it https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6470-0984 14 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 goods in rural villages [3]. the process of planting oil palm trees typically begins with the preparation of the land. this involves clearing the existing vegetation and trees, which often results in deforestation and soil degradation. the land is then drained and plowed, and young oil palm seedlings are planted in rows. the seedlings are carefully tended to until they mature, which takes about three years. once the oil palm trees mature, they start to produce fresh fruit bunches (ffbs) which are harvested and then transported to a mill where they are processed to extract the crude palm oil (figure 1). figure 1. oil palm plantation in negeri sembilan, malaysia. source: image courtesy of nazarizal mohammad. https://unsplash.com. oil palm is the most productive (average oil yield 5.5 tonnes per hectare) [4], versatile, highly profitable and traded vegetable oil crop in the world [5], and demand is expected to grow further in the near future. today, palm oil is used in an impressive number of packaged products (e.g. soap, cosmetics, detergents, chocolate, margarine, and cookies), cooking oil, as well as for biofuel [6]. oil palm is not only a source of edible oil but also a source of bioenergy (figure 2). in the last decade, driven by government support [7] tropical oils used as biodiesel-diesel blends were promoted as a renewable resource in many scenarios for achieving climate change commitments. however, the rapid expansion of oil palm plantations has also led to environmental, social, and economic challenges. global palm oil demand acts as a driver of land-use changes with associated nexus challenges in the environmental, social and economic spheres, leading to concerns about deforestation, soil degradation and losses of ecosystem services [8,9], and other telecoupled effects such as land-grabbing, food price volatility, income inequalities, and land conflicts associated with palm oil concessions, especially for independent smallholder plots. in this perspective essay, we claim that achieving sustainable oil palm cultivation requires a collaborative effort that involves all stakeholders, including governments, producers, retailers, and consumers. we argue that the adoption of sustainable and smart cultivation practices is essential to ensure that palm oil production supports economic development and poverty reduction in tropical regions, while minimizing the negative impacts on the environment and society. in summary, the path to sustainable oil palm cultivation involves balancing the economic benefits with environmental and social considerations. figure 2. palm oil value chain. source: this cover has been designed using resources from https://freepik.com. 2. nexus challenges addressing the challenges facing the palm oil industry requires a comprehensive approach that considers economic, social, and environmental issues. several studies have identified many future challenges, including emerging threats from ghg emissions and climate change, land degradation, and pests and diseases [10]. nevertheless, previous studies have suffered from siloed approaches in addressing the range of challenges associated with oil palm cultivation. in this study, the authors attempt to solve nexus domains that coexist within the oil palm value 15 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 chain, highlighting the multifaceted challenges and possible solutions. one of the main nexus challenges is deforestation. large-scale oil palm cultivation has been a leading cause of deforestation in many tropical regions. this has resulted in the loss of valuable carbon sinks and biodiversity hotspots, leading to climate change and ecosystem destruction. overall, tropical oil trees expansion has implications in the well-known trilemma [11] posed to scientists, international organizations, economists and governmental institutions for balancing the domain of biofuel production, food security and environmental implications. for instance, land use changes and landscape fragmentation affected high-biodiversity wilderness areas, as recently suggested by de almeida et al. [12] in a long-term trajectory of oil palm expansion in the eastern brazilian amazon. in the same vein, rulli et al. [13] argue that bioenergy and food industry demands have driven forest losses, forest fragmentation and freshwater pollution in different areas across indonesia. however, the ghg emissions following land use/cover changes have been questioned by researchers in many cross-sectional studies, suggesting substantial challenges and trade offs concerning the accounting of greenhouse fluxes [14,15]. bioenergy production is another interconnected challenge associated with oil palm cultivation. as 46% of total palm oil imported by the european union was used as biofuels, in 2018 the eu parliament provisionally agreed to phase out the use of palm oil for transport fuel to reduce the risk of direct and indirect land-use changes [16]. nevertheless, avoiding palm by switching to alternative replacement oils is not the solution in the short term because other cultivated crops (e.g. jatropha, jojoba, soybean, rapeseed) are less productive and will require additional land resources [17]. a recent assessment found that land-intensive bioenergy will play a significant role in the energy mix in the coming decades during the energy transition towards net-zero emissions targets [18]. future biofuel targets and mandates will require a further land area with substantial land-use changes and probably may lead to multiple interdependencies. in this sense, completely banning exports of bioenergy may not be the best solution for the planet. social impacts are also a major concern associated with oil palm cultivation. strictly linked with the oil palm expansion are land grabbing, displacement of indigenous communities, poor working conditions for plantation workers, and human rights abuses. agribusiness multinational corporations and big companies may drive continuous expansion impacting the rural villages, populations and territories [19], putting at risk freshwater availability, food sovereignty and drinkable water for livestock. moreover, recent studies suggest a clear link between deforestation and outbreaks of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases [20,21]. new plantations take up large tracts of land, exacerbating interdependent connections on land, water, food and human rights. 3. solutions toward sustainability to address these challenges and controversies, a new paradigm for modernizing oil palm cultivation and the value chain is necessary. first, a viable solution is to support sustainable intensification with disruptive technologies, i.e., agriculture 4.0 (agriculture revolution which uses digital technologies) [22] and precision agriculture, scaling-up productivity reducing pressure on tropical deforestation and biodiversity losses. in this sense, findings from recent field-scale studies and reviews suggest that there is considerable scope for further yield improvements with improved high-yielding varieties (i.e. breeding, genetic improvement) and integrated farming systems for optimal inputs management of nutrients, irrigation, pests and diseases. for example, scientists are developing oil palm varieties that are more resistant to drought and heat, which will become increasingly important as the climate changes [4,23]. although technology transformation and industry 4.0 are relatively new concepts in the palm industry [24], the application of disruptive innovations can effectively improve the sustainability of the value chain. under a high-yield growth scenario of doubling global average palm oil yields up to 9 metric tons per hectare [2], future expansion of oil palm plantations can be counterbalanced, and the harvested area will slow at 2010 levels assuming no change in global demand. regarding the issues on biodiversity and ecosystems, new agroforestry systems planting buffer zones of native vegetation around oil palm plantations and integrating trees with crops can create more diverse and resilient landscapes. for example, shade-tolerant crops like coffee, cocoa, and black pepper can be grown beneath oil palm trees, which provide habitat for wildlife and helps to reduce the impact of monoculture cropping. this could diversify and stabilize the price and supply of the food basket and income of smallholders, reinforcing the resilience and livelihoods of local communities. 4. conclusions and future perspectives to develop appropriate and sustainable oil palm cultivation practices, nexus challenges and viable solutions in the production pathway need to be better understood. 16 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 as stated above, the palm oil processing industry, large agricultural companies, researchers, governments, and small-scale producers should raise their ambition toward technology innovations and new processing technologies to modernize their practices of production and to reduce competition and conflicts among different land uses. if growth in palm oil demand continues to rise in the next years, a key priority for policymakers should therefore be to plan for effective supply-chain interventions. important vehicles for nexus solutions include regulatory support and economic support schemes [25]. regulatory support instruments can include company pledges, codes of conduct, sector-wide sanctions [26] and rigorous accounting rules protecting tropical and subtropical rainforests and biodiversity-rich ecosystems against unnecessary and detrimental land conversions. in this sense, commitments such as “no deforestation, no peat, no exploitation (ndpe)” can help raise awareness and prevent new damage [6]. companies that adopt ndpe policies commit to sourcing palm oil from suppliers who do not engage in deforestation, conversion of peatlands, or exploitation of workers. economic support instruments include realistic measures to regulate production and implementing policy instruments such as mandatory quotas, tax incentives or credits, capital subsidies, grants and rebates, and voluntary market initiatives. furthermore, sustainability indicators such as those established by the roundtable on sustainable palm oil principles and criteria (see the rspo, 2020) [27], and certified international standards checked against performance measures (e.g. practical to implement, sensitive, measurable and traceable) can further increase sector sustainability, encouraging companies to adopt sustainable practices and provide assurance to consumers that palm oil is produced sustainably. in conclusion, the path to sustainable oil palm cultivation involves a comprehensive approach that balances economic, social, and environmental considerations. addressing the challenges requires the cooperation of governments, industry, and civil society. adopting sustainable practices can benefit not only the environment and local communities but also the long-term profitability and reputation of the palm oil industry. data availability the data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author. conflict of interest the author declares 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[27] roundtable on sustainable palm oil [internet]. available from: www.rspo.org/ https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20180614ipr05810/energy-new-target-of-32-from-renewables-by-2030-agreed-by-meps-and-ministers#:~:text=parliament%20and%20council%20provisionally%20agreed,upwards%20revision%20clause%20by%202023 https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20180614ipr05810/energy-new-target-of-32-from-renewables-by-2030-agreed-by-meps-and-ministers#:~:text=parliament%20and%20council%20provisionally%20agreed,upwards%20revision%20clause%20by%202023 https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20180614ipr05810/energy-new-target-of-32-from-renewables-by-2030-agreed-by-meps-and-ministers#:~:text=parliament%20and%20council%20provisionally%20agreed,upwards%20revision%20clause%20by%202023 https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20180614ipr05810/energy-new-target-of-32-from-renewables-by-2030-agreed-by-meps-and-ministers#:~:text=parliament%20and%20council%20provisionally%20agreed,upwards%20revision%20clause%20by%202023 https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20180614ipr05810/energy-new-target-of-32-from-renewables-by-2030-agreed-by-meps-and-ministers#:~:text=parliament%20and%20council%20provisionally%20agreed,upwards%20revision%20clause%20by%202023 https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20180614ipr05810/energy-new-target-of-32-from-renewables-by-2030-agreed-by-meps-and-ministers#:~:text=parliament%20and%20council%20provisionally%20agreed,upwards%20revision%20clause%20by%202023 https://www.wrm.org.uy/bulletin-articles/oil-palm-plantations-and-water-grabbing-ivory-coast-and-gabon https://www.wrm.org.uy/bulletin-articles/oil-palm-plantations-and-water-grabbing-ivory-coast-and-gabon https://www.wrm.org.uy/bulletin-articles/oil-palm-plantations-and-water-grabbing-ivory-coast-and-gabon 6 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://journals.nasspublishing.com/index.php/rwae copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.814 received: 18 february 2023; received in revised form: 18 april 2023; accepted: 27 april 2023; published: 10 may 2023 citation: ghosh, s., roy, a., kundagrami, s., 2023. screening of elite mungbean genotypes (vigna radiata (l.) wilczek) through multivariate analysis for food and nutritional security. research on world agricultural economy. 4(2), 814. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.814 *corresponding author: sanhita ghosh, department of genetics and plant breeding, university of calcutta, kolkata, west bengal, 70019, india; email: sanhitaghosh91@gmail.com research article screening of elite mungbean genotypes (vigna radiata (l.) wilczek) through multivariate analysis for food and nutritional security sanhita ghosh* anindita roy sabyasachi kundagrami department of genetics and plant breeding, university of calcutta, kolkata, west bengal, 70019, india abstract: the ever-increasing urbanization to accommodate the growing population reduces substantially the agricultural land but poses a threat to meeting the requirement of proper nutrition for human health. mungbean [vigna radiata (l.) wilczek] is a unique gift bestowed by nature to mankind, which has the potency to make up the gap of protein shortage with an inexpensive cost, but due to its low level of production as well as productivity, which in a roundabout way influences the nutritional status of people resulting in malnutrition. therefore, enhancement of the total area under mungbean cultivation is not permissible, and an increase in the total productivity per unit area is necessary. in this manner, screening and evaluation of improved genotypes for high yield are necessary to ensure food security. but at the same time seed yield being a complex character governed by several other contributing traits, selection for the characters proves to be quite challenging. as a prerequisite for any breeding program aimed at yield enhancement presence of significant genetic diversity in a given population is highly important. in the present investigation principal component analysis was performed and the results revealed two principal components contributing to the total variance in the population. while the pc1 was predominated by yield and its attributing traits, the pc2 was mainly comprised of growth-related traits. the hierarchical (upgma) cluster analysis using standardized data classified the fifty-two mungbean genotypes into 4 clusters, which showed 2 major, 1 minor and one outlier. among them, cluster ii is the most fascinating, as its individual had high seed yield plant–1 and related traits. the present work concluded that the identification of promising high-yielding mungbean genotypes through multivariate analysis has a good promise for future breeding programs with a view of food and nutritional security. keywords: mungbean; screening; multivariate analysis http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.814 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.814 mailto:sanhitaghosh91@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3948-4087 7 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 1. introduction the present unequivocal confirmation that the global population has already grown exponentially and predicted it will rise from the present to 9 billion in 2050 [1]. with rapid urbanization and unchecked population growth ensuring food and nutritional security for the population has proved to be quite difficult even with the support of advanced technology in the field of agricultural science [2,3]. in plant genetics resources, pulse crop species are the base subsistence of the world food security for a growing population. mungbean [vigna radiata (l.) wilczek] is a unique gift presented by nature to mankind, which has the potency to make up the gap of protein shortage in view of its three-fold amount of protein as much as cereals [4]. besides, this crop has not only the capability to enrich soil fertility with physical and biological properties of soil health through symbiotic nitrogen fixation but also plays an important role in the economy to increase the farmer’s income through the intercropping system [5]. india alone with grown area of 3.72 million hectares and production of 1.70 million tons with productivity of 406.98 kg/ha represents around two third of global production [6]. thus, the overall annual production of the crop has increased yet the crop productivity has plateaued due to the non-availability of high-yielding genotypes and lack of genetic variability as well as post-harvest losses because of bruchid attack [7]. under the circumstances, enhancement of productivity is necessary for ensuring the food security of the population. so, there is a strong need for increasing the mungbean productivity but the current agricultural practices and the availability of sufficient land put a bar on it. hence, an alternative approach is necessary to look for introducing improved high-yielding genotypes. the sound knowledge of genetic diversity in genetic resources is a crucial part for plant breeders to better comprehend the evolutionary and the hereditary connections among accessions, to choose germplasm in a more organized and impressive way and to create convenient diversity in their plant breeding program [8]. from the very beginning of agriculture genetic variability within crop species to meet subsistence food requirements has been done and now it is being utilized to surplus food for rising populations. the unavailability of stable high-yielding varieties potential is a major bottleneck for growing mungbean. empirical selection for genotypes with high yield is difficult because of the yield complex nature controlled by polygenes. yield is a complex trait, associated with many contributing traits which is highly influenced by the environment. analysis of yield and related traits are also presented an intricate chain of relationships and picturized a reflection of their gene effects [6]. multivariate analysis such as principal component analysis and cluster analysis are statistically eligible to experiment and analyze a matrix of complicated values which can be utilized to think about the connection among traits and decide key properties and attributes that are involved in economic yield [9]. pca makes it conceivable to transform a given set of traits, which are either associated or not into a new system while cluster analysis is a clear and easy method to group the investigated data through their similarities by a view of a two-dimensional vision [10,11]. estimation of the genetic diversity can help in the identification of genetically distant parents present in the population. hybridization between such genetically distant parents can ensure a maximum number of recombinants expected in the segregating generation of such crosses. keeping these factors in view, the present investigation was conducted to determine the nature and magnitude of genetic diversity among the fifty-two mungbean genotypes for yield and yield attributing traits through multivariate analysis, particularly principal component analysis. such analysis can clarify the association among agro-morphological traits and cluster analysis provides valuable information to screen and identify the promising high-yielding elite mungbean genotypes for future food security. 2. materials and methods 2.1 experimental material the fifty-two mungbean genotypes were collected from different areas of india such as nbpgr (new delhi); pulse & oil seed research station (berhampore); some local accessions of different districts of west bengal and all genotypes listed in table 1. 2.2 experimental site, seasons and cultivation the present study was carried out at the department of genetics and plant breeding at institute of agricultural science, university of calcutta and the experimental materials consisted of fifty-two mungbean genotypes that were evaluated at experimental farm of university of calcutta, baruipur, south 24 parganas west bengal, india (220 n, 88.260 e and 9.75 m above the sea level) during the period of mid-march to end may in three different years. the experiment was laid out in a random block design (rbd) using three replications with the experimental plot. there were rows per plot of each genotype spaced 30 cm apart. the length distance of each row was 3 m, with plant to plant distance of 10 cm within a row. most of the cultural practices were performed according to park, 1978 [12]. 8 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 2.3 observed traits data were collected on five randomly selected healthy harvested plants from each replication and each genotype. pods of each plant were kept separately in an envelope and dried. threshing was done by hand was taken to avoid a mixture of seeds. the pre and post-harvesting observations were recorded from five randomly selected plants from each replication on different parameters such as plant height (ph), branches plant–1 (bpp), pods plant–1 (ppp), pod length (pl), seeds pod–1 (spp), 100 seed weight (hsw), harvest index (hi) and seed yield plant–1 (sypp) which were determined on plot basis according to moussa [13] and the mean values computed from the observations of both the seasons were used for statistical analysis. 2.4 statistical analysis to assess the overall variation attributed by yield attributing traits in mungbean, the descriptive statistics including mean, standard error (se) and range in standard unit were calculated using spar 2.0 software package and the principal component analysis (pca) and k-means clustering (combined data over three seasons used for each trait) were done using ibm spss 20.0 while tree diagram (dendrogram) based on unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean (upgma) method with the euclidean distance matrix [14] was constructed by darwin version 6. the first two principal components were plotted against each other to find out the patterns of trait variability among the mungbean genotypes using spss version 20. 3. results and discussion the basic statistics for eight agro-morphological traits were analyzed and summarized in table 2 exhibited a noticeable variation present in the experimental material. pods plant–1, plant height, seed yield plant–1 and harvest index showed high to medium variation whereas the rest of the traits showed low variation. screening is the first best step to selecting good genotypes for crop improvement. the hierarchical (upgma) cluster analysis constructed and classified the fifty-two mungbean genotypes into 4 clusters showing 2 major, 1 minor and one outlier in figure 1. the genotypes were distributed in each cluster presented in table 3 exhibited the result in a way that one genotype into cluster i contained the outlier (1.92%), 17 accessions were grouped into cluster ii (32.69%), 2 genotypes made a small group into cluster iii (3.85%) while 32 accessions grouped into transgressive cluster iv (61.54%). the k-mean values were displayed in table 4 and figure 2 based on four clusters. among them, cluster ii constituted the most fascinating group because here each elite genotype had high seed yield as well as branches plant–1, pods plant–1, harvest index whereas cluster iv showed intermediate yield potency. cluster ii showed lower values in all the traits except pod length and 100 seed weight while the outlier (cluster i) was showed distinct from the other cluster because it demonstrated that the lowest seed yield plant–1 as well as low branches plant–1, pods plant–1, harvest index. the inter-cluster distance among four cluster range between 10.57 to 28.60 based on euclidean dissimilarity matrix presented in table 5. the highest inter-cluster distance was found between clusters i and iv (28.60) followed by clusters i and iii (26.71), clusters i and ii (14.41). the closer cluster distance appeared between clusters iii and iv (10.57) followed by clusters ii and iii (14.39) and clusters ii and iv (14.63). kahraman et al. [11] and darkwa et al. [15] present similar result in common beans. eigenvalues of eight principal components have been shown in the scree plot figure 3. principle component analysis (pca) demonstrated that pc1 to pc2 had the eigenvalues > 1 contributed traits variability 71.18% through pc1 and 28.81% table 1. list of mungbean genotypes. serial no. genotype name serial no. genotype name serial no. genotype name serial no. genotype name 1 apdm-84 14 a-82 27 ipm-99-125 40 sukumar 2 mh-98-1 15 pm-2 28 ipm-205-07 41 pdm-54 3 b1 16 tm-98-20 29 ipm-5-17 42 sonamung 2 4 ps-16 17 hum-8 30 km-139 43 cum1 5 ptm-11 18 sonamung-1 31 pm-11-51 44 cum2 6 sml-302 19 panna 32 pusa-1431 45 cum3 7 ml-5 20 baruipur local 33 sml-115 46 cum4 8 apdm-116 21 howrah local 34 pdml-13-11 47 cum5 9 upm-993 22 purulia local 35 pusa-1432 48 cum6 10 mc-39 23 bankura local 36 samrat 49 cus1 11 pusa baisakhi 24 pant mung-5 37 hum-16 50 cus2 12 pusa9632 25 vc-639 38 mh-909 51 cus3 13 k-851 26 pusa vishal 39 wbm-045 52 cus4 9 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 through pc2 in table 6. seed yield plant–1 and pods plant–1 with maximum values closer to unity within pc1 whereas plant height and seeds plant–1 close with pc2 illustrated in figure 4. the positive and negative values in pca represented correlation trend between the traits. these results were in trends with the findings of pandiyan et al. therefore, pc1 assists to select the traits such as branches plant–1 and seed yield plant–1 for yield improvement. ph-plant height, bpp-branches per plant, ppp-pods per plant, pl-pod length, spp-seeds per pod, hswhundred seed weight, hi-harvest index, sypp-seed weight per plant. ph-plant height, bpp-branches per plant, ppp-pods per plant, pl-pod length, spp-seeds per pod, hswhundred seed weight, hi-harvest index, sypp-seed weight per plant. screening is a prerequisite strategy for breeding to improve productivity so that an important crop through breeding traits variation is a necessity. significant variation exists in the present study for yield contributing table 2. basic statistics for eight quantitative traits in fifty-two mungbean genotypes. traits pooled mean ±standard error range minimum maximum ph (cm) 61.97±0.49 50.02 76.90 nbpp 3.88±0.04 2.50 4.97 nppp 44.55±0.66 20.90 63.53 pl (cm) 7.55±0.06 6.67 9.37 nspp 11.61±0.05 9.64 13.15 hsw (gm) 3.35±0.06 1.80 5.48 hi 24.89±0.36 17.23 32.64 sypp (gm) 14.99±0.34 9.65 25.04 note: ph-plant height, nbpp-no. of branches per plant, nppp-no. of pods per plant, pl-pod length, nspp-no. of seeds per pod, hsw-hundred seed weight, hi-harvest index, sypp-seed weight per plant, cm-centimeter, gm-gram. figure 1. dendrogram showing a cluster of 52 different mungbean genotypes. table 3. cluster analysis and classification with regard to agro morphological traits of mungbean. cluster no of genotypes percentage of contribution name of genotypes i 1 1.92 cus4 ii 17 32.69 pusa baishakhi, ps-16, mc-39, ndml-13-11, panna, sonamung-2, ipm-5-17, howrah local, pm-11-51, hum-16, baruipur local, pant mung-5, ipm-205-07, apdm-84, mh-909, b1, hum-8. iii 2 3.85 cum4, pusa-1432. iv 32 61.54 sukumar, pm-2, pdm-54, upm-993, cus3, ipm-99-125, ml-5, cum6, cum1, pusa-1431, cus2, sonali, k-851, cum3, wbm-045, a-82, apdm-116, cum2, cus1, vc-639, sml-115, km-139, pusa9632, purulia local, pusa vishal, bankura local, ptm-11, mh-98-1, samrat, tm-98-20, sml-302, pusa 1432. 10 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 traits. ghosh et al. [16] reported that adequate knowledge of trait variation is an imperative marker that provides a sign of the distinctive impacts which influence the aggregate variation of plant traits while variation alludes to detectable contrasts among individuals for a specific trait. the knowledge of multivariate analysis not only indicates the significant variance between average vectors but also provides efficient utilization for securing the genetic resources to forecast the potentiality of the breeding material by rapid authentication [11,17]. the nature of the distribution of the genotypes across four clusters observed in the current investigation suggested that the analysis successfully table 4. k-mean performance of agro-morphological traits of four different clusters in mungbean genotypes. cluster ph (cm) bpp ppp pl (cm) spp hsw (gm) hi sypp (gm) i 56.23 ± 3.03 2.80 ± 0.46 20.90 ± 0.17 8.70 ± 0.80 12.00 ± 0.14 4.40 ± 0.17 27.42 ± 1.66 9.65 ± 0.22 ii 62.37 ± 0.69 4.01 ± 0.05 51.73 ± 0.83 7.82 ± 0.10 11.50 ± 0.08 3.59 ± 0.11 28.28 ± 0.51 20.15 ± 0.39 iii 74.23 ± 1.54 3.19 ± 0.37 48.46 ± 1.47 7.26 ± 0.19 11.74 ± 0.18 2.98 ± 0.11 23.43 ± 0.63 10.65 ± 0.18 iv 61.18 ± 0.62 3.89 ± 0.05 41.22 ± 0.58 7.38 ± 0.06 11.65 ± 0.07 3.22 ± 0.07 22.96 ± 0.42 12.68 ± 0.20 note: cm-centimeter, gm-gram figure 2. means of eight quantitative traits of mungbean genotypes grouped into four clusters. table 5. inter cluster distance and mean performance of agro-morphological traits of four different clusters of mungbean genotypes. cluster ii iii iv i 14.41 26.71 28.60 ii 14.39 14.63 iii 10.57 figure 3. scree plot constructed for eight principal components. 11 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 classified the accessions based on their phenotypic performances. similar observations were earlier reported by basnet et al. [18]. cluster ii with seventeen elite genotypes presented the highest mean performance on seed yield plant-1 as well as pods plant-1 and high values for the rest of the traits and presumes that had special significance in diversification, conservation of natural resources, crop development and sustainability of production systems. mohammad and sharif [9] suggested that the selection of genotypes for hybridization must take into account the inter-cluster distances between different clusters as well as the intra-cluster distances among genotypes belonging to the same cluster to obtain optimum segregation during recombination. in addition to cluster analysis the principal component analysis revealed that the first principal component designated at pc1 plays a conceivable role to identify the ideotype yield enhancement traits while pc2 differentiated factors that related to vegetative growth exclusively in regenerative advancement. pandiyan et al. [19] reported that k-mean values showed traits homology, degree of genetic diversity and almost similar trends in principle component analysis. hence, pods plant–1, branches plant–1, harvest index was considered as the most important yield attributing component which is directly reflected in the final yield and also selected seventeen elite high-yielding mungbean genotypes from cluster ii which transform new opportunity to surplus food and nutrition for the rising population. 4. conclusions the current investigation successfully elucidated the magnitude of diversity existing within a given population of fifty-two mungbean germplasms. the study also helped in identifying seventeen germplasms distributed within the same cluster based on their high yield and promising morphological traits. such information can be worthwhile to identify suitable parents for exploitation in future hybridization programs, and also aim for yield improvement along with other economically important traits. author contributions the first author as well as corresponding author sanhita ghosh took the lead in analysis, interpretation as well as writing the manuscript while co-authors sabyasachi kundagrami provided suggestions on experiments and anindita roy helped during the analysis. acknowledgements authors highly acknowledge university grant commission (ugc) and university of calcutta for the financial support. data availability data are available upon request to the corresponding author. conflict of interest the authors disclosed that they do not have any conflict of interest. references [1] bahl, p.n., 2015. climate change and pulses: approaches to combat its impact. agricultural research. 4(2), 103-108. available from: https://link.springer. com/article/10.1007/s40003-015-0163-9 [2] lipton, m., 2001. reviving global poverty reduction: what role for genetically modified plants? journal of international development. 13(7), 823-846. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.845 table 6. two principal components with eight agro-morphological traits of mungbean genotypes. traits pc1 pc2 ph (cm) 0.303 0.953 bpp 0.849 –0.529 ppp 0.992 0.126 pl (cm) –0.933 0.359 spp 0.777 0.629 hsw (gm) –0.882 –0.471 hi 0.805 –0.593 sypp 0.998 –0.057 eigen values 5.695 2.305 % of variance 71.189 28.811 cumulative % 71.189 100.000 figure 4. scattered diagram of two principal components indicating a relationship between eight agro-morphological traits. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40003-015-0163-9 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40003-015-0163-9 12 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 [3] thirtle, c., lin, l., piesse, j., 2003. the impact of research-led agricultural productivity growth on poverty reduction in africa, asia and latin america. world development, 31(12), 1959-1975. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2003.07.001 [4] ghosh, s., roy, a., kundagrami, s., 2019. character association studies on yield and attributing traits of fifty-two mungbean [vigna radiata (l.) wilczek] genotypes. international journal of current research and review. 11(12), 25-28. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.31782/ijcrr.2019.11125 [5] perera, u.i.p., chandika, k.k.j., ratnasekera, d., 2017. genetic variation, character association and evaluation of mungbean genotypes for agronomic and yield components. journal of the national science foundation of sri lanka. 45(4), 347-353. available from: https://jnsfsl.sljol.info/articles/abstract/10.4038/jnsfsr.v45i4.8228/ [6] singh, b., bains, t.s., 2014. effective selection criteria for yield improvement in interspecific derivatives of mungbean (vigna radiata (l.) wilczek). indian journal of applied research. 4(11), 1-3. available from: https://www.worldwidejournals.com/indian-journal-of-applied-research-(ijar)/fileview/november_2014_1492779438__168.pdf [7] ghosh, s., roy, a., kundagrami, s., 2022. screening of mungbean [vigna radiata (l.) wilczek] genotypes against bruchid (callosobruchus maculatus) attack to reduce postharvest losses. legume research. 45(8), 1019-1027. doi: https://doi.org/10.18805/lr-4354 [8] rahman, m.m., munsur, m.a.z.al., 2009. genetic divergence analysis of lime. journal of bangladesh agricultural university. 7(1), 33-37. available from: https://www.banglajol.info/index.php/jbau/article/ view/4795 [9] mohammad, g., sharif, m.j., 2015. study the responses of mungbean genotypes to drought stress by multivariate analysis. international journal of agriculture innovation and research. 3(4), 1198-1202. available from: https://ijair.org/administrator/components/com_jresearch/files/publications/ijair-1151_ final.pdf [10] mohsen, j., zahra, m., naser, s., 2014. multivariate statistical analysis of some traits of bread wheat for breeding under rainfed conditions. journal of agricultural sciences. 59(1), 1-14. available from: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/multivariate-statistical-analysis-of-some-traits-of-janmohammadi-movahedi/18c721ad492087a464fd1e01571c4a56cf83089d [11] kahraman, a., onder, m., ceyhan, e., 2014. cluster analysis in common bean genotypes (phaseolus vulgaris l.). turkish journal of agricultural and natural sciences. special issue(1), 1030-1035. available from: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/142219 [12] park, h.g., 1978. suggested cultural practices for mungbean [internet]. asian vegetable research and development center. available from: https://avrdc. org/wpfb-file/culti_practices-pdf-3/ [13] moussa, e.h., millan, t., moreno, m.t., et al., 2000. genetic analysis of seed size, plant height, day to flower and seed per plant by using both morphological and molecular markers in chickpea. annals of applied biology. 151(1), 34-42. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7348.2007.00152.x [14] sneath, p.h.a., sokal, r.r., 1973. numerical taxonomy: the principles and practice of numerical classification. wf freeman & co.: san francisco. pp. 573. 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bangladesh m. a. monayem miah1*　m. enamul haque2　richard w. bell2　m. a. rouf sarkar3　m. abdur rashid1 1. agricultural economics division, bangladesh agricultural research institute (bari), joydebpur, gazipur 2. murdoch university, australia 3. agricultural economics division, bangladesh rice research institute (brri), joydebpur, gazipur article info abstract article history received: 1 december 2020 revised: 7 december 2020 accepted: 8 december 2020 published online: 30 december 2020 conservation agriculture (ca) is a win-win approach that reduces operational costs, including machinery, labour, and fuel, while increasing yields, profit and better utilization of natural resources. data and information on farm level ca technology adoption are scarce in bangladesh. therefore, the study was conducted at three upazilas of rajshahi and thakurgaon districts to assess adoption and farmers perceptions on ca technology, and to determine the factors of ca technology adoption at farm level in 2017. a total of 405 farmers taking 135 adopters and 270 non-adopters were selected randomly for this study. the study revealed that ca technology adoption is still going on in the study areas. however, the rates of adoptions of crop residue retention (67%) and crop rotations (38.9%) were much higher compared to minimum tillage (14.9%). residue retention (68.9%) and suitable crop rotations (34.4%) were also practiced by the non-adopters. the age, innovativeness, and extension contact of the farmers and availability of vmp had significant positive influence on the adoption of ca technologies. the major problems of adoption were non-availability of minimum tillage planter, lack of knowledge and awareness of the farmer, and no/little subsidy provision on planter. increasing the availability of vmp, providing training on ca methods, and providing subsidy on planter are important to increase ca technology adoption at farm level. keywords: conservation tillage vmp residue retention crop rotations conservation agriculture 　 1. introduction agriculture in bangladesh is well advanced in adopting farm mechanization particularly in land preparation, irrigation, and threshing. however, the growing threat to crop production is the shortage of labour which impacts especially on crop establishment, weed control, and harvesting [19]. in addition, prices of inputs such as labour, seed, fertilizer, pesticides, diesel, and irrigation water are also increasing that affects their optimum use, crop productivity and farm profitability [29]. thus, bangladesh agriculture is facing the challenge of increasing food security for its growing population and improving overall land use sustainability, while decreasing the need for labour, the costs of crop production and increasing farm profitability. therefore, more foods have to produce from decreasing cultivable land through more efficient use of land and crop management technologies doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.263 *corresponding author: m. a. monayem miah, agricultural economics division, bangladesh agricultural research institute (bari), joydebpur, gazipur; email: monayem09@yahoo.com 51 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 and through using natural resources that have minimal adverse impacts on soil and environment [11]. in this context, conservation agriculture (ca) and mechanization are becoming increasingly important to overcome the problems of declining agricultural productivity in bangladesh. ca is not an actual technology; rather, it refers to a wide array of specific technologies that are based on applying one or more of the three main principles (iirr and act, 2005). the principles are (a) minimal soil disturbance; (b) crop residue retention; and (c) suitable crop rotations [41]. soil tillage is one of the most important activities of agricultural land management which has significant impact on soil physical, chemical, and biological properties that affect crop yield [22]. minimum tillage practice increases the levels of soil organic matter [6,15], water retention capacity [4,25], irrigation requirements[8,21], increases crop yield and decreases production costs [32,12], and minimized turn-around time between the crops [16]. crop residue retention on the top of the soil with any number of tillage systems plays a crucial role in improving agronomic yield and environmental quality [1,31]. it significantly modifies various agronomic factors by increasing and stabilizing the soil moisture content, altering fertility and temperature in the topsoil layer, reducing soil erosion, nematode and sunlight incidence on the soil surface [33,39]. long-term crop residue incorporation builds som level and n reserves, and increases the availability of macro and micro-nutrients [34]. suitable crop rotation has many agronomic, economic and environmental benefits over continuous cropping [2]. crop rotation can help maximize crop yield potential and profitability over time [26], control weeds [7,20], break disease cycles, limit insect and other pest infestations [37], increase soil organic matter, and provide an alternative source of nitrogen [23,28]. besides grain crops, the inclusion of legume in a cropping pattern can maintain soil fertility and sustain crop productivity to a great extent [9]. therefore, the productivity increase and sustainability of ca systems largely depend on tillage operations, systematic crop rotations, and in situ crop harvest residue management coupled with adequate crop nutrition. ca is a win-win approach that reduces operational costs, including machinery, labour, and fuel, while increasing yields and better utilization of natural resources [30]. it has the capacity to make more water available to the crops, and can mitigate, to some extent, the present climatic and socio-economic challenges faced by farmers [2]. realizing the importance of ca in bangladesh, the scientists of murdoch university, australia with the support of australian government and in collaboration with bangladesh agricultural university, barc, bari, brri, department of agriculture and food of western australia, and ngos has implemented the project “overcoming agronomic and mechanization constraints to development and adoption of conservation agriculture in diversified rice-based cropping in bangladesh” funded by aciar since april 2012 to march 2017. the project has developed and accelerated the adoption of ca technology for selected soils, crops and cropping systems in different areas of bangladesh, especially in the rainfed areas and those with supplementary irrigation. respondent farmers have received benefits from cost saving crop production technologies and sustainable resource management through adopting ca technologies. they have established and grown different crops such as wheat, maize, pulses, oilseeds, jute, and rice successfully through ca technology [3,14]. therefore, an attempt was made to assess the adoption of ca technology at farm level for providing feedback of the project to researchers and policy makers who can formulate appropriate policy guidelines to disseminate ca technologies to other new areas of the country. specific objectives (1) to assess the adoption status of ca technologies at farm level. (2) to determine the factors influencing ca technology adoption at farm level. (3) to assess the perceptions of farmers about ca technology adoption at farm level. 2. methodology 2.1 study area selection ca technologies have been implemented or are being practiced in seven upazilas in four districts of bangladesh namely rajbari, thakurgaon, rajshahi and mymensingh. considering project resources, logistic support and ca technology adoption, three upazilas namely durgapur and godagari upazilas of rajshahi district and sadar upazila of thakurgaon district were purposively selected for the study. 2.2 sampling design and data collection the households were selected considering the level of adoption of ca technologies. at first, a complete list of farmers adopted ca technologies (i.e. minimal soil disturbance, crop residue retention, and suitable crop rotations) was prepared with the help of personnel from dae and ca project. then, a total of 135 ca farmers taking 45 farmers from each upazila were selected randomly for doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.263 52 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 this study. again, a total of 270 non-adopting farmers were randomly selected for this study as control. thus, the total sample size was 405. data and information were gathered from selected farmers using a pre-tested interview schedule. data were collected during january-february, 2017. 2.3 analytical techniques collected data were edited, scrutinized, summarized and analyzed using computer software. descriptive statistics were mostly used to present the results of the study. moreover, the following logit model was used to identify factors of ca technology adoption at farm level. according to gujarati [10], the logit model guarantees that the estimated probabilities lie in the 0-1 range and that they are not linearly related to the explanatory variables. in addition, it is easier and more convenient to compute than the probit model. since the dependent variable is dichotomous, ols cannot be used. mle method was followed to run the logit model using stata software (version 12). the specification of the model was as follows: logit {p(y=1)} = log{p/(1-p)} = α + β1x1 + β2x2 +…….. + βkxk where, y is a categorical response variable with 1= adopters and 0 = otherwise; α is the intercept; β1, β2.... βk are coefficients of independent variables x1 x2... xk; p is the probability of adopting ca technology, and (1-p) is the probability that a farmer does not adopt ca technology. the empirical logit model was as follows: y = α + β1x1 + β2x2 + β3x3 + β4x4 + β5x5 + β6x6 + β7x7 + β8x8 where, y= dependent variable (1= adopter, 0 = non-adopter), x1 = farmer’s age (year), x2 = education (year of schooling), x3 = family size (no./hh), x4 = lnfarm size (decimal), x5 = availability of vmp (score), x6 = societal membership (wt. score), x7 = innovativeness (wt. score), x8 = extension contact (wt. score), α = constant, β1 β2 β3 β4 .................. β8 are the coefficients to be estimated. 3. results and discussion 3.1 status of ca technologies adoption conservation agriculture is a new concept in bangladesh although extensively practiced in many countries of the world. farmers in bangladesh generally practice one or two ca principles, but not three principles together. however, considerable efforts were made to popularize ca technology among interested farmers in different areas of bangladesh. the adoption status of ca principles is discussed below. adoption of minimum tillage operations: in the study areas, versatile multi-crop planter (vmp) is being promoted for crop establishment in minimum soil disturbance. majority of the farmers belonged to adopter and non-adopter groups used full tillage operation by 2-wt (power tiller) for land preparation and 100% ca farmers used vmp for minimum soil disturbed crop establishment in single pass operation (table 1). a study found that 4143% less irrigation water was used by crops established by vmp planting as compared to a traditional tillage system [18]. the uses of power tiller operated seeder (ptos) and country plough are rare in the study areas. table 1. status of tillage/planting operations in the study areas tillage equipment/ planter adopter (n=135) non-adopter (n=270) n % n % 2-wt 115 85.2 270 100 vmp 135 100 --ptos 1 0.7 --country plough 1 0.7 5 1.9 respondent farmers were asked to give their opinion on intensive tillage in crop production. about 73% of the ca adopters and 26.3% non-adopters considered intensive tillage harmful for soil health and crop productivity. about 74% of the non-adopters considered intensive tillage beneficial to soil and crop yield (table 2). such response from non-adopters might be due to lack of knowledge and mindset on minimum soil disturbance. both categories of farmers who responded in favor of minimum soil disturbing technologies mentioned various drawbacks of intensive tillage. table 2 shows that more than 60% of the adopters and nearly 92% non-adopters gave the impression that soil fertility reduces due to intensive tillage. the emergence of enormous weeds in the crop field might be one of the causes of intensive tillage which was mentioned by 63.3% adopters and 11.3% non-adopters. intensive tillage requires higher cost which was pointed out by 51% of the adopters and about 17% of non-adopters in the study areas. loose soils are easily washed out during heavy rain or flood. therefore, 47% of the adopters and 11.3% of non-adopters raised this issue due to intensive tillage. however, a good percentage (29-46%) of the adopters also mentioned that intensive tillage requires higher dose doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.263 53 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 of fertilizers and irrigation (table 2). table 2. farmers’ perceptions on the intensive tillage of soil particular adopter (n=135) non-adopter (n=270) n % n % response on intensive tillage harmful 98 72.6 71 26.3 beneficial 37 27.4 199 73.7 disadvantages of intensive tillage n=98 n=71 reduce of soil fertility 59 60.2 65 91.5 emergence of enormous weeds 62 63.3 8 11.3 higher cost of tillage 50 51.0 12 16.9 erosion of soil 46 46.9 8 11.3 required higher fertilizer 45 45.9 2 2.8 required higher irrigation 28 28.6 8 11.3 loss of beneficial insects 4 4.1 5 7.0 others* 2 2.0 4 5.6 note: *soil becomes hard, higher insects-diseases infestation, required higher seed, lower yield, etc. adoption status of crop residue retention: there are trade-offs in the role of residues in (1) boosting grain yields, (2) providing a resource for livestock feed and cooking, and (3) providing ground cover to reduce erosion potential [24]. the retention of crop residues can substantially reduce the amount of inorganic fertilizers use which brings both environmental and economic benefits to the farmers [38]. knowingly or unknowingly the benefits of residue retention, many farmers in the study areas are retaining crop residues in their fields over the years. both adopting and non-adopting farmers generally retain crop residues in the field after harvesting of rice (boro &aman), wheat, and maize to a varied extent. table 3 reveals that the average heights of crop residues kept by the ca farmers were 6.3”, 6.2”, 10.5” and 18.8” for boro, aman, wheat and maize, respectively. although the average residue heights kept by the ca farmers for boro and aman rice were more or less equal to the heights kept by the non-ca farmers, the residue heights for wheat and maize were higher for non-ca farmers. table 3. average height of crop residues retained in the field particular boro rice aman rice wheat maize a. adopter n=98 n=135 n=135 n=47 minimum (inch) 2 4 5 12 maximum (inch) 12 10 18 24 mean (inch) 6.3 6.2 10.5 18.8 b. non-adopter n= 213 n=270 n=185 n=76 minimum (inch) 2 2 6 12 maximum (inch) 12 12 20 24 mean (inch) 6.2 6.2 11.4 21.1 respondent farmers retained crop residues for many reasons. improving the soil fertility was the prime reason for keeping a certain portion of crop residue stated by both ca (95.6%) and non-ca farmers (97%). many farmers opined that when rice or wheat plants are slashed above the soil keeping some residues, the straw remains clean for animal feed. therefore, a good percentage of both adopter and non-adopters in the study areas stated that they kept crop residue in order to remain straw clean for animal. about 12% ca farmers mentioned that the retention of crop residue ensures less fertilizers application which was might be due to increased fertility. a good percentage of both ca and non-ca farmers also stated some other reasons such as threshing of crops become easy (6.7-11.1%), transporting harvests become easy (3.75.6%), and reduction of soil & nutrients erosion (table 4). table 4. reasons for retaining crop residues in the field reasons for retaining crop residue adopter (n=135) non-adopter (n=270) frequency % frequency % 1. improve soil fertility 129 95.6 262 97.0 2. straw remains clean/good feed 20 14.8 59 21.9 3. crop harvest needs less labour 19 14.1 44 16.3 4. reduce the amount of fertilizer uses 16 11.9 2 0.7 5. threshing crops become easy 9 6.7 30 11.1 6. transporting harvests become easy 5 3.7 15 5.6 7. increases next crop’s yield 8 5.9 --8. reduces soil & nutrients erosion 3 2.2 4 1.5 9. others* 8 5.9 10 3.7 note: *day labourer does not want to cut rice just up the soil, habitat of beneficial birds, climbing means for lentil crop, preserve soil moisture, straw dry early, and emergence of less weeds/grass. adoption status of crop rotations: a crop rotation is the practice of growing a series of different types of crops in the same area over a sequence of seasons. continuously growing the same crop will tend to exploit the same soil root zone which can lead to a decrease in available nutrients for plant growth and to a decrease in root development [42]. crop rotations can improve soil organic matter to a large extent and it has immense effect on soil physical and chemical properties and thereby on crop productivity [1]. for many reasons, both ca and non-ca farmers in the study areas have been practicing crop rotations over the years, because they know well that monoculture reduces crop productivity. some farmers practiced crop rotations for maintaining soil fertility. table 5 shows that half of the ca farmers and 34.4% of the non-ca farmers adopted crop rotations over the years. surprisingly, about 50% ca farmers did not practice crop rotations in the past. currently, they are adopting suitable crop rotation since most ca farmers are passing 1st year and 2nd year through pracdoi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.263 54 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 ticing ca. however, they have intention to follow suitable crop rotations in future. table 5. status of adoption of crop rotations in the study areas status of crop rotation adopter (n=135) non-adopter (n=270) n % n % adopted 68 50.4 93 34.4 not adopted 67 49.6 177 65.6 a wide range of cropping patterns has been practiced by the respondent farmers in the study areas. the major cropping patterns such as lentil-boro-t.aman; wheat-jute-t. aman; and mustard-boro-t.aman were practiced by most of the ca and non-ca farmers (tables 6 & 7). the other important patterns were reported as wheat-maize-t.aman; wheat-fallow-t.aman and wheat-mungbean-t.aman. the cultivation of pulse (lentil) is highly remunerative to the farmers. therefore, many ca farmers started introducing pulse crops in the cropping patterns. crop rotations with leguminous crops have the potential to increase soil nitrogen concentration through biological nitrogen fixation [9]. some sampled farmers also thought that suitable crop rotations can reduce the incidence of insects and diseases. table 6. crop rotations followed by ca adopter farmers in the study areas current year (n=68) previous year (n=68) two year before (n=68) cp* n % cp* n % cp* n % 1 16 23.5 4 15 22.1 4 18 26.5 2 9 13.2 2 9 13.2 2 11 16.2 3 8 11.8 1 6 8.8 1 6 8.8 4 6 8.8 3 6 8.8 3 4 5.9 5 5 7.4 6 4 5.9 5 3 4.4 6 4 5.9 7 3 4.4 6 3 4.4 others 20 29.4 others 25 36.8 others 23 33.8 notes: *cropping pattern (cp): 1. lentil-boro-t.aman; 2. wheatjute-t.aman; 3. wheat-maize-t.aman; 4. mustard-boro-t.aman; 5. wheat-fallow-t.aman; 6. wheat-mungbean-t.aman; 7. potato-maize-t.aman table 7. crop rotations followed by non-adopter farmers in the study areas current year (n=93) previous year (n=93) two year before (n=93) cp* n % cp* n % cp* n % 1 17 18.3 4 15 16.1 4 20 21.5 2 17 18.3 1 9 9.7 1 11 11.8 3 13 14.0 3 8 8.6 3 9 9.7 4 8 8.6 8 8 8.6 2 8 8.6 5 6 6.5 6 7 7.5 5 7 7.5 6 6 6.5 2 6 6.5 8 5 5.4 7 4 4.3 5 6 6.5 6 4 4.3 others 21 22.6 others 34 36.6 others 29 31.2 notes: *cropping pattern (cp): 1. lentil-boro-t.aman; 2. wheat-fallow-t.aman; 3. wheat-jute-t.aman; 4. mustard-boro-t.aman; 5. wheat-maize-t.aman; 6. lentil-fallow-t.aman; 7. onion-jute-t. aman; 8. fallow-boro-t.aman overall rate of adoption of ca technologies: during the period (2012-2015) many farmers observed the benefits of ca technologies and adopted them gradually. this adoption process is still on-going in the study areas. however, the survey results showed that on an average 20.3% of farmers from rajshahi and 10.1% of farmer from thakurgaon districts adopted versatile multicrop planter (vmp) for crop establishment in minimum disturbed soil (e.g., strip planting). bed planting system can’t be considered as ca system since it disturbed soils to a great extent [13]. in rajshahi district, only 4.7% of the farmers used bed planter to prepare beds for cultivating crops, whereas 2.8% farmers established crops under zero tillage. a large portion (59.8-73.6%) of the farmers from both areas retained crop residues in the crop fields. again, about 39% of the farmers practiced crop rotations in the study areas (table 8). table 8. rate of adoption of conservation agriculture technologies particular rajshahi thakurgaon both area n % adoption n % adoption n % adoption total farm households 316 -348 -664 -strip planting with vmp users 64 20.3 35 10.1 99 14.9 bed planter users 15 4.7 --9 2.3 zero tillage users 9 2.8 --9 1.4 crop residue retention users 189 59.8 256 73.6 445 67.0 crop rotation practicing farmers 112 35.4 146 42.0 258 38.9 3.2 factors influencing the adoption of ca technologies the adoption of ca technologies was likely to be influenced by different socio-economic factors such as age, education, availability of vmp, extension contract, and innovativeness. the marginal effects of the variables determining adoption of ca technologies are presented in table 9. age of the farmer had significant influence on the adoption of ca technologies implying that the probability of adoption of the ca technologies decreases with the increase of farmers’ age. it means that young farmers are the most adopters of ca technologies. marginal coefficient indicates that if the age of farmer decreases by 100%, the probability of adopting ca technologies would be increased by 0.45%. usually, education has positive influence on new technology adoption [27,40]. in this study, education had significant negative impact on the adoption of ca technologies doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.263 55 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 implying that the probability of adoption of ca technologies decreases with the increase of the year of schooling. it means that low educated farmers are the most adopters of ca technologies compared to higher educated farmers in the study areas. marginal coefficient reveals that if the year of schooling decreases by 100%, the probability of adopting ca technologies would be increased by 2.06%. table 9. marginal effect of the variables determining adoption of ca technologies among respondent farmers explanatory variable dy/dx se z-statistic probability age (year) -0.0045** 0.0021 -2.19 0.028 education (year of schooling) -0.0206*** 0.0071 -2.87 0.004 household size (no./hh) 0.0178 0.0124 1.43 0.152 lnfarm size (decimal) 0.0222 0.0366 0.60 0.545 availability of vmp (score) (scale,0-4; 0= not available, 4= plenty) 0.4341*** 0.0478 8.94 0.000 societal membership (wt. score) (scale,0-4; 0= no membership, 4= executive member) 0.0351 0.0249 1.42 0.156 innovativeness (wt. score) (scale,0-2; 0= no involvement, 2= involved) 0.0311*** 0.0115 2.69 0.007 extension contract (wt. score) (scale,0-4; 0= no contact, 4= regular contact) 0.0240*** 0.0072 3.29 0.001 note: dependent variable = ca technology adoption (adopter = 1, non-adopter = 0) no. of observation = 403; lr chi-square (8) = 202.61; log likelihood = -154.27; pseudo r2 = 0.3964 ‘***’ & ‘**’ represent significant at 1% and 5% level respectively higher score value represents the higher probability of ca technology adoption majority of the farmers in the study areas are unable to purchase a 2wt along with a vmp for crop establishment and practicing of ca. on the other hand, farmer’s shallow knowledge on the advantage of minimum tillage and ca influences farmers not to adopt ca technology. in these circumstances, the availability of vmp in the locality is a crucial factor that highly influences farmers to adopt ca technology due to its demonstration effects and lsp’s promotional activities. the marginal coefficient of vmp availability is positive and highly significant implying that the adoption probability of ca technologies would be increased by 43.41%, if the availability of vmp is increased by 100%. the sampled farmers’ contact with different extension personnel such as agriculture officer, sub assistant agriculture officer, bari scientist and neighbouring farmers had a positive and highly significant relationship with the probability of adopting ca technologies. logit estimate also shows that there is a positive and significant relationship between ca technology adoption and extension contact. the probability of adopting ca technologies will be increased by 2.4%, if the extension contact is increased by 100%. progressive farmers always tend to adopt new technology. the marginal coefficient of innovativeness is positive and significant at 1% level. if the aforesaid variable is increased by 100%, the probability of adoption of the ca technologies would be increased by 3.11% (table 9). 3.3 perception of farmers about ca technology adoption the ca adopting farmers in the study areas were asked to point out the advantages of ca technologies that were experienced over the last one or two years back. they mentioned many positive benefits of ca technology during crop production (table 10). the highest proportion of ca farmers (95.6%) mentioned that they could save labour costs in many operations of crop cultivation. more than 94% farmers opined that ca systems significantly reduced the cost of land preparation and seed sowing since vmp requires single pass to complete planting and seeding operations. another important observation of the farmers was that adoption of ca technology required less amounts of seed and seed placement was also better (91.1%) compared to conventional cultivation. many farmers (63.769.6%) opined that ca technologies could successfully reduce the amount of irrigation water and fertilizer. the results of several studies [14,35-36] also supported the statement of the farmers. many ca farmers told that weeding and pesticides application (65.2%) and crop harvest (66.7%) are become easy due to line sowing of the seeds under strip tillage. the other positive observations of the farmers were increase in soil fertility (63%), possibility of timely seed sowing (60%), low attack of insects and diseases (34.1%), and good yield with lower cost. table 10. benefits of ca technology adoption as perceived by ca farmers advantages frequency % response 1. require less labour and saving cost of labour 129 95.6 2. require less amount of seed/good placement of seed 127 94.1 3. require comparatively less irrigation 94 69.6 4. require comparatively less fertilizer 86 63.7 5. weeding and pesticides application become easy 88 65.2 6. crop harvests become easy 90 66.7 7. increase soil fertility 85 63.0 8. timely seed sowing possible 81 60.0 9. incidence of low insects and diseases 46 34.1 10. good yield with lower cost 41 30.4 doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.263 56 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 the respondent farmers also mentioned some negative sides of ca technologies. more than half of the ca farmers complained that ca machineries especially vmp was not available in the study areas. all types of fertilizers could not be applied together using vmp which was mentioned by 36.3% farmers. skill operator is very important for operating vmp. but skill operators are scares in the study areas. about 34.1% farmers complained this as a problem. generally, loam and sandy loam soils are suitable for strip planting with vmp. it can’t be operated in the clay or other hard types of soils which was opined by 32.6% farmers. weed management in ca is an important task. the emergence of huge weeds in the ca fields was a crucial problem encountered by about 9% of the ca farmers. the other problems faced by a small number of farmers were maintenance of crop rotation is a difficult task and minimum tillage produces less yields (table 11). however, these statements were appeared might be due to lack of their mindset towards conservation agriculture. table 11. disadvantages of ca technology adoption faced by ca farmers disadvantages frequency % responses 1. non-availability of ca machineries 71 52.6 2. all types of fertilizers can’t be applied together 49 36.3 3. vpm operation needs skill operators 46 34.1 4. all soils are not suitable for ca practice 44 32.6 5. emergence of more weeds 12 8.9 6. maintenance of crop rotation is a difficult task 3 2.2 7. minimum tillage produces less yield 2 1.5 3.4 future challenges for ca adoption the adoption of such promising technologies is not linear and its adoption depends on many other factors like environmental, socioeconomic, institutional and political circumstances and constraints, rather than technology alone. future challenges of ca adoption are furnished in table 12. the adoptions of ca technologies have to face different challenges in future. the first ranked challenge will be the lack of knowledge and awareness of the farmers about the benefits of ca technologies. on an average, about 93% respondent farmers mentioned this as one of the challenges of its adoption. the availability of ca machineries is the pre-requisite of successful ca adoption. but for different reasons ca machineries are not widely available in the study areas that will be the main barrier of its wider adoption. the level of farmers’ education in the study areas is not up to the mark. most of them are illiterate and low educated which is also a challenge for the successful adoption of ca technologies at farm level. although less educated farmers are more adopters of ca technologies in the study areas. however, more than 80% respondent farmers raised this issue as a future challenge of its adoption. most of the farmers in the study areas are poor and have no ability to purchase 2wt along with ca planter (vmp) for minimum tillage. they have to depend mainly on the local service providers of ca and others machineries for tillage and threshing operations. about 55% farmers stated it as a future challenge for ca adoption. for expanding ca technologies at farm level, the australian funded ca project provided price support (50 and 25% in year 1 and year 2, respectively) on ca machineries especially on the price of vmp among interested farmers. this price support provision has been taken out after the completion of the project. such situation has been considered by 43% of the farmers as a challenge for ca adoption in future. finally, the successful adoption of ca technologies also depends on many other organizations such as dae, bank, research institutes, machineries manufacturers, etc. strong collaborative backward and forward linkage program are essential for wider adoption of ca technologies in the study areas which will be also an important challenge toward ca adoption in bangladesh. table 12. future challenges of ca adoption in the study areas challenges adopter (n=135) non-adopter (n=270) all category (n=405) n % n % n % 1. lack of knowledge/awareness toward ca 124 91.9 252 93.3 376 92.8 2. non-availability of ca machineries 114 84.4 230 85.2 344 84.9 3. lack of farmers’ education and training 117 86.7 210 77.8 327 80.7 4. farmers’ non-ability to purchase ca planter 82 60.7 141 52.2 223 55.1 5. no price subsidy on ca planter 70 51.9 103 38.1 173 42.7 6. lack of cooperation from supporting organizations 30 22.2 13 4.8 43 10.6 4. conclusions and recommendations 4.1 conclusions ca is becoming important to many farmers to overcome the problems of labour shortage, increases of cultivation costs, declining agricultural productivity, and farm profitability. the process of ca technology adoption is still on-going in the study areas. although the level of doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.263 57 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 adoptions of crop residue retention and crop rotations are much higher, the adoption of minimum tillage is too small. traditionally, a good segment of the non-ca farmers retain crop residues in the field and practice suitable crop rotations over the year. various inherent qualities such as younger age, innovativeness, and extension contact of the farmers have significantly influenced them to adopt ca technologies. the availability of vmp is another crucial factor that influences farmers to adopt the technology (minimum tillage) to a great extent. although ca technologies show potentials in many aspects, it faces some challenges towards its higher adoption. the lack of farmer’s awareness and non-ability to purchase ca planter, non-availability of ca machineries, no subsidy or price support on ca planter, and lack of cooperation from supporting organizations are the major challenges of its higher adoption. 4.2 recommendations the following recommendations are crucial for increasing the adoption of these promising and versatile technologies to make agriculture sustainable and farm business profitable. (1) the government should provide practical and field oriented training on ca technologies to the enthusiastic farmers. in this respect, the government should broadcast the positive impacts of ca technologies using suitable mass media. (2) demonstration and field day have greater impacts on technology adoption. therefore, the government should demonstrate ca activities among farmers and conduct field days for wider adoption of ca technologies. (3) the government should make minimum tillage planters available to the farmers through providing soft loan to the manufacturers and interested farmers. subsidized price can also play important role in spreading out minimum tillage planters among farmers. (4) extension personnel involved in technology dissemination generally do not come to the farmer after the completion of the project. therefore, the government should give emphasis on developing effective monitoring mechanism for ca technology disseminators. 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[26] lauer j. the natural benefits of crop rotations and the cost of monocultures. university of wisconsin-madison, 2010. http://www.extesnion.umn.edu [27] miah m.a.m., s. afroz, m. a. rashid, s. a. m. shiblee. factors affecting adoption of improved sesame technologies in some selected areas in bangladesh: an empirical study[j]. the agriculturist, 2015, 13(1): 140-151. [28] murell t. s. the science behind the nitrogen credit for soybeans. international plant nutrient institute (ipni), 2011. http://www.ipni.net [29] reza m.s., m. m. h. riazi, m. m. h. khan. productivity and profitability of sugarcane production in northern bangladesh[j]. indian journal of commerce & management studies. 2016, 7(1): 38-45. [30] roy k. c., m. e. haque, s. e. justice, m. i. hossain, c. a. meisner. development of agriculture tillage machinery for conservation agriculture in bangladesh[j]. agricultural mechanization in asia, africa and latin america, 2009(40): 58-64. [31] salahin n., m. k. alam, a.t.m.a.i. mondol, m.s. islam, m. h. rashid, m. a. hoque. effect of tillage and residue retention on soil properties and crop yields in wheat-mungbean-rice crop rotation under doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.263 59 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 subtropical humid climate[j]. open journal of soil science, 2017(7): 1-17. [32] sarker k.k., w. xiaoyan, l. hongwen, x. chunlin, l. wenying, h. jin, e. r. jeff, r.g. rasaily, q. xiaodong. development strategies of small scale conservation farming practices on two wheeled tractor in bangladesh[j]. african journal of agricultural research, 2012, 7(26): 3747-3756. [33] silva j. r.v., n. v. costa, d. martins. efeito da palhada de cultivares de cana-de-açúcar na emergência de cyperus rotundus[j]. planta daninha, 2003(21): 375-380. [34] singh y., b. singh, j. timsina. crop residue management for nutrient cycling and improving soil productivity in rice-based cropping practices in the tropics[j]. advances in agronomy, 2005(85): 269407. [35] singh n.p., r.p. singh, r. kumar, a.k. vashist, f. khan, n. varghese. adoption of resource conservation technologies in indo-gangetic plains of india: scouting for profitability and efficiency[j]. agricultural economics research review, 2011, 24(1): 1524. [36] singh o. p., h. p. singh, p. s. badal, r. singh, d. pandey. impact of resource conservation technologies on carbon emission in major wheat growing regions of india[j]. indian journal of agricultural economics, 2010, 65(3): 399-411. [37] teetes g., b. b. pendelon. insects-pests of sorghum: cultural management methods. department of entomology, texas a&m university, 1999. http://www. sorghumipm.tamu.edu [38] tiwari k. n. reassessing the role of fertilizers in maintaining food, nutrition and environmental security[j]. indian journal of fertilizers, 2007(3): 33-50. [39] velini e. d., e. negrisoli. controle de plantas daninhas em cana crua. in: conresso brasileiro da ciência das plantas daninhas. foz do iguaçu anais. foz do iguaçu: sociedade brasileira da ciência das plantas daninhas, 2000: 148-164. [40] yokouchi t., k. saito. factors affecting farmers’ adoption of nerica upland rice varieties: the case of a seed producing village in central benin[j]. food sec., 2016(8): 197-209. doi: 10.1007/s12571-015-0545-7 [41] hobbs p. r., k. sayre, r. gupta. the role of conservation agriculture in sustainable agriculture[j]. philosophical transactions of the royal society b: biological sciences, 2008 363(1491): 543-555. [42] kumar v., r. r. bellinder, r. k. gupta, r. k. malik, d. c. brainard. role of herbicide-resistant rice in promoting resource conservation technologies in rice-wheat cropping systems of india: a review[j]. crop protection, 2008(27): 290-301. doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.263 39 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae agriculture insurance’s outreach constrained by procedural delays and norms: reflections from north karnataka, indiaa nayanatara s. nayak1*b　narayan billava2c　ashalata k.v.3d 1. centre for multi-disciplinary development research (cmdr), y.s. colony dharwad, karnataka, india 2. cmdr, dharwad, karnataka, india 3. department of statistics, university of agricultural science (uas), dharwad, karnataka, india article info abstract article history received: 1 december 2020 revised: 7 december 2020 accepted: 8 december 2020 published online: 30 december 2020 karnataka is one of the states, which experienced severe drought continuously for four years since 2014. in addition, heavy rainfall for the past two years has adversely affected agriculture produce in the entire state putting farmers into debt trap as most of them are not covered by crop insurance for crop failure. although crop insurance was available to farmers in india since 1972, the coverage across the states including karnataka was not found to be satisfactory. the average percentage of farmers covered under crop insurance was less than 10% during 1999-2015, both for india and karnataka. it was 11.3% under nais 2015 kharif, increased to 12.2% in 2016, 17.1% in 2017 going down to 15.6% in 2018 and to 14.1% in 2019 under pradhan mantri fasal bima yojana (pmfby) kharif in karnataka. pmfby was one new kind of agriculture insurance company and introduced throughout the country in 2016.this paper examines the performance of this scheme with specific reference to north karnataka based on primary data collected from farmers’ survey in four districts, secondary data collected from official documents and first-hand information gathered from regional stakeholder workshops organized in six selected districts of north karnataka. the study tries to look into the extent of coverage and, flaws and merits of crop insurance schemes with reference to problems faced by farmers in getting insurance coverage and claims. the study covered around 1000 stakeholders including farmers, officials of banks, department of economics and statistics, agriculture department and insurance agencies, representatives of gram panchayats and cooperative societies. three agricultural crop seasons have passed since then. central government has brought in some changes in guidelines and is likely to make further changes in procedures in response to concerns expressed by states and farmers’ representatives. follow up discussions with key stakeholders in karnataka held after the initial farmers’ survey reveal that while a few of the anomalies in applying for crop insurance have been addressed by the concerned departments, major obstacles in assessment and claims continue to exasperate farmers who are miffed by these procedural lapses. this paper throws light on some of these issues and discusses measures to make crop insurance, particularly pmfby farmers’ friendly. keywords: crop insurance pradhan mantri fasal bima yojana agriculture insurance farmers claims 　 a this paper is based on the study sponsored by kapc, bengaluru and carried out by cmdr, dharwad during 2016-17. b professor, centre for multi-disciplinary development research (cmdr), y.s. colony dharwad, karnataka, india. email.id: nsn.cmdr@gmail.com c assistant professor, ans chair, cmdr, dharwad, karnataka, india. email.id: n.billava@gmail.com, phone: 9740467379 d professor, department of statistics, university of agricultural science (uas), dharwad, karnataka, india doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.242 *corresponding author: nayanatara s. nayak, centre for multi-disciplinary development research (cmdr), y.s. colony dharwad, karnataka, india; email: nsn.cmdr@gmail.com 40 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 1. introduction karnataka is one of the states, which experienced severe drought continuously for three years since 2014. and for the past 2 years the state is facing huge losses due to heavy rainfall, which has adversely affected agriculture produce in the entire state including economic losses to the state economy. the climate change leading to frequent fluctuations in weather conditions has cast an evil spell on agriculture compelling the government and farmers to look out for insurance against crop loss. although crop insurance is available to farmers in india since 1972, the coverage across the states including karnataka is not satisfactory. several studies and the report of cag [1] indicate poor performance of crop insurance schemes in india and, the issues identified are similar, persistent and appear to have existed from the beginning of the implementation of the schemes. lack of awareness, focusing only on loanee farmers, availability of insurance for a few crops, meager claim amount, delayed claims and corrupt practices were the main reasons quoted by studies for low preference for crop insurance among farmers. the situation is not different in karnataka. previous governments at the centre tried and experimented with 11 crop insurance schemes during 1972 to 2015 the last being national crop insurance scheme (nais). but, none of the schemes seemed to be comprehensive and, failed to attract large number of farmers. on an average, the coverage of farmers under crop insurance was less than 10% in india during 1999-2015. in this background, 3 new schemes viz. restructured weather based crop insurance scheme (rwbcis), pradhan mantri fasal bima yojana (pmfby) and unified package insurance scheme (upis) were introduced in the country in 2016. in addition to these three new/restructured schemes, the central government retained coconut palm insurance scheme (cpis). pmfby has been hailed as farmer friendly with provision for cap on farmers’ share in premium, submission of online applications, increase in sum insured, direct transfer of claims to farmers’ accounts, coverage of large number of crops, lower premium rates as compared to the provisions in earlier schemes, etc. but, how does the scheme score in actual implementation? and, what are the responses of different stakeholders including farmers? this paper tries to address these issues by looking into ground level realities through field visits, household survey and, by interacting with different stakeholders in selected districts of north karnataka. the paper is based on an empirical studya carried out during 2016-2017. the discussion is presented in six sections. the introduction is followed by a brief review of crop insurance, research methods, status of crop insurance in karnataka focusing on pmfby including their coverage and performance, performance of nais-2015 versus krspmfby-2016 and stakeholder perceptions on pmfby. the last section presents summary and conclusions. 2. crop insurance in india a brief review crop insurance is available to farmers in india since 1972 in different forms and capacities. and many researchers and organizations have tried to evaluate crop insurance schemes over time across india. there is also a great volume of information available on crop insurance in karnataka. in the words of ifft[2]. “government crop insurance has proved to be a failure worldwide, but india seems to have ignored both its own failure and the failure of other countries.” several other studies also support this view. a study on cpis in kerala on banana insurance revealed that the scheme was not financially viable as it caused a heavy burden to the government and, farmers were found getting enrolment in the scheme only when they actually faced a threat of damage and the claim was submitted within a week of enrolment [3]. an evaluation of the crop insurance programme in india routed through nais, which existed till 2014-15 reveals that “while nais has done well on equity grounds, the coverage and indemnity payments were biased towards a few regions and crops, and there were delays in settlement of claims” [4]. a study carried out in krishna district of andhra pradesh [5] reveals that crop insurance is viewed as beneficial to large farmers and its extent in risk sharing was found to be very low. the joint group[6] constituted by government of india to review crop insurance had recommended compulsory coverage of personal accident, medical and insurance for “dwelling and contents” along with crop insurance and, provision of subsidized crop insurance, premium capping, etc. according to a study by banerjee and bhattacharya [7] agriculture insurance in india is still at experimental and developmental phase. they point out the gap between insurance providers and receivers and opine lack of awareness among farmers and compulsion to include loanee farmers as setback for the programmes. swain[8] studied nais and wbcis schemes in odisha using secondary time series data from 2000-2010 [7] and, information gathered through focused group discussion a this study was sponsored by karnataka agriculture price commission, government of karnataka, bengaluru doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.242 41 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 with insurance users and found that wbcis performed better than nais because of higher coverage, lower premium, faster and higher frequency of compensation payment though the sum assured and the compensation amount were lower. while nais farmers did not receive any indemnity during past 8 years of the study, most of the wbcis farmers received compensation twice during the period. the report of the committee of department of agriculture and cooperation[9] highlights the failed attempts to implement crop insurance schemes in india over the past five decades. and many of the issues and problems highlighted when the committee interacted with stakeholders appeared to be chronic and existed since implementation of crop insurance schemes in the country and remained unaddressed. cse[10] carried out a study on the performance of pmfby in kharif 2016 based on the field visits in 3 states viz. haryana, tamil nadu and uttar pradesh, personal interviews with stakeholders and a round table discussion with farmer leaders and civil society members from 8 states. the study reveals increase in the area insured (18%), increase in sum insured per hectare of land (by 68%) and increase in number of farmers (30%) insured both, loanee and non-loanee as compared to the performance under previous scheme (nais). the study states that although pmfby is a transformative scheme with improvement over previous schemes, it has failed to reach out to farmers due to challenges in implementation that are listed as delayed notification, delay in payment of state government subsidies, low coverage of tenant and sharecroppers, lack of involvement of panchayat institutions, poor awareness about the scheme, poor coordination between implementing officials, absence of acknowledgment for purchase of insurance, double deduction of premiums, wrong entries, loopholes in conducting cces, high actuarial premium rates and delay in claim settlement. dey and maitra[11] studied the performance of pmfby and wbcis in terms of its coverage of farmers, crops, premium rates and claim payout efficacy across states in india based on secondary information. the findings of the study suggest that while efficient claim payout may increase beneficiary coverage under pmfby, subsidy and actuarial premium rates will have impact on coverage under wbcis. the latest [1] presents a performance audit of crop insurance schemes implemented in india during 2011 to 2015-16, i.e. before implementation of pmfby. the report highlights that the governments have failed to buildup database of farmers over the years, failed to increase coverage and awareness. studies on evaluation of earlier crop insurance schemes in karnataka speak about low coverage of farmers and area although karnataka ranks eighth in terms of farmer coverage under crop insurance according to cumulative statistics [12] available for the period 1999-2015 covering both kharif and rabi seasons. kalavakonda and mahul[13] find crop insurance schemes in karnataka to be performing poorly in terms of area coverage, farmer enrolment and, financial performance. a study on crop insurance in karnataka by [14], based both on a sample survey of farmers in mandya, chamrajnagar and haveri districts in karnataka and an analysis of nsso 59th round [15] reveals that farmer households with higher levels of education, economic status and social class are likely to adopt crop insurance. rampant fraudulent practices were noticed in the past in states like karnataka, gujarat, andhra pradesh, maharashtra, with network of farmers, bank officials and agriculture department officials accused of running rackets for generating false insurance claims and usurp money [16]. a study by goudappa et al[17] covering the farmers who purchased nais in the districts of hyderabad-karnataka region reveals that farmers were not aware of crop insurance schemes and farmers were not happy with the implementation of the scheme by the agriculture department. cag report and, studies carried out by individuals and various agencies in nut shell indicate poor performance of crop insurance schemes in india and, the issues identified are similar and appear to be existing from the beginning. but there has not been serious effort to take concrete action to address these loopholes overtime. however, reviews of the provisions of pmfby indicate that most of the recommendations of the joint group[6] and mishra committee[9] seem to have been considered and included under pmfby, which is a welcome feature. 3. methods the focus of this study was on 2016 kharif season with specific reference to north karnataka. the study relied on two major primary sources to get the relevant field level information, which included a sample survey of 120 farm households in four selected districts of north karnataka viz, belgaum, haveri, kalaburgi and raichur carried out during september-november 2016 and the villages selected respectively being maladinni, devihosur, hagaraga and mittimalakapur and, seven regional workshops organized for about 600 farmers and other stakeholders in belgaum, dharwad, haveri, kalaburgi, raichur and vijayapura of north karnataka. in addition, information was gathered through informal discussions with around 400 farmers, relevant department officials and insurance agency representatives. state level information on coverage, premium collection and sum insured was collected from agriculture departments and insurance agencies (ias). doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.242 42 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 4. performance of pmfby in karnataka currently four agriculture insurance schemes including pmfby (renamed as karnataka raita suraksha pradhan mantri fasal bima yojana (krspmfby), restructured weather based insurance scheme (rwbcis), coconut palm insurance scheme (cpis) and, unified package insurance scheme (upis) implemented on pilot basis in belgaum and chitradurga districts are operative in karnataka. upis implemented on pilot basis in 45 districts of india and 2 districts of karnataka includes pmfby as one of its seven components. in this paper the discussion is focused on pmfby 2016 kharif for which claim details are available. in comparison specific references are made to nais kharif 2015. pmfby has been renamed as karnataka raita surakasha pradhan mantri fasal bima yojana (krspmfby) in karnataka. it is an all india multiperil insurance scheme covering non-preventable risks including prevented sowing/planting risks, loss to standing crop, post-harvest losses (up to 2 weeks) and localized calamities. premium payable by farmers is 2% for kharif crops, 1.5% for rabi crops and 5% for annual commercial and horticultural crops or actuarial rate, whichever is less. it follows yieldbased area approach, which earlier was compulsory for loanee farmers and voluntary for non-loanee farmers with provision for covering tenants and sharecroppers also. for claim settlement, crop loss estimated by agriculture department based on yield data obtained through crop cutting experiments (cces) is forwarded to ias for claim settlement. insurance unit is village/village panchayat for major crops and hobli/taluk for other crops. ias quoting lowest bid are selected in open bidding arranged by the state government. pmfby does not cover risks due to theft, malicious damage, act of enmity, crop damage by domestic/wild animals and provides toll-free number for grievance redressal. the recent changesa made in pmfby guidelines include making insurance optional to farmers, capping on central subsidy at 30%, allowing insurance companies to tender for 3 years, adopting two-step process for estimation of crop losses based on a defined deviation matrix from normal using triggers such as weather or satellite indicators. some of these guidelines apply to rwbcis also. other modifications include conducting cces in areas only with strong deviations reflected through remote sensing for the assessment of yield loss, giving option to states to choose scale of finance (earlier the sum insured was the same for both loanee and non-loanee and was equal to a pib.gov.in ‘cabinet approves revamping of pradhan mantri fasal… pib, february 19,2020. scale of finance), preventing states which delay payment of premium subsidy to insurance companies from participating in pmfby, with cut off dates for invoking this provision being 31st march for kharif and 30th september for rabi seasons, use of smart sampling technique for cces and optimization of number of cces, settlement of claims based on yield arrived through use of technology in case of non-provision of yield data beyond cut-off date by the states to insurance companies. further, the government of karnataka has set up “farmers” crop survey app 202021’ to enable farmers to upload crop images and details through mobile. this will help in bringing about transparency and prevent delays in claims due to defaulting by farmers as they themselves send crop details. karnataka has smoothened crop insurance system in the state by developing samrakshane (meaning protection) web portal designed and uploaded with the help of national informatics centre (nic), bengaluru. the website provides link to terms and conditions of schemes, notified crops, premium rates, cut off dates, company details, insurance premium calculator, and facilitates banks to upload applications online. samrakshane website links bhoomi (land record) to bank accounts of farmers. the status of the crop is assessed by agriculture/revenue/rural development and panchayati raj (rdpr)/directorate of economics and statistics (des) staff through global positioning system (gps) tracked mobile app attached to smart phones on survey numbers (sample fields) chosen randomly. these photos and videos are uploaded on the site. for 2016 kharif season, tata aig and universal sompo insurance agencies had won the bid and were authorized to provide crop insurance under krspmfby in karnataka with distribution of one cluster of 10 districts to tata aig and 2 clusters with 20 districts to universal sompo. and, 4331 insurance units were declared at hobli level and 8113 units were declared at gram panchayat level. principal crops were declared at gram panchayat level while other crops were notified at hobli level. district agriculture department sends details to des, which in turn will send consolidated details to state agriculture department, which issues notifications, calls for tender and finalises bid selecting insurance companies for providing crop insurance in the state for a particular agriculture season. notifications are issued from agriculture and horticulture departments for respective crops. although pmfby specifies three levels of indemnity (70%, 80%, 90%), considering the loss to farmers, government of karnataka had fixed indemnity levels at 90% for irrigated crops and 80% for rainfed crops in krspmfby. karnataka’s experience with crop insurance coverage as said earlier has not been very satisfactory. if we look doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.242 43 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 into the statistics on crop insurance furnished in table 1 for a period of 16 years (1999-2015), the coverage was below 10% both in terms of area and number of farmers insured. but the claim status was slightly better as it was 195% of gross premium collections. however, the situation seems to be improving with the introduction of krspmfby as there is an increase in the number of farmers opting for crop insurance since 2016 under krspmfby. there is also an increase in the area insured. table 1. cumulative status of crop insurance coverage details farmers insured (%) area insured (%) share of claims in sum insured (%) share of claims to gross premium* (%) % of benefited farmers india -19992015 (average) 7.9 9.6 8.5 175.2 33.1 karnataka-1999-2015 (average) 6.5 6.6 9.4 195.4 39.2 source: directorate of economics and statistics, state of indian agriculture 2015-16,moa&fw, govt. of india[12]; singh 2016[18]; *premium+ subsidy as per 2010-11 agricultural census report, karnataka state is having 1,21,61,457 hectares of agriculture land and there are about 78,32,189 farmers. out of which about 92.5% of farmers are small and marginal farmers in the state. karnataka was in 8th ranking among states in terms of crop insurance if we look into cumulative data for 15 years from 1999-2015.in the first year of the implementation of krspmfby in kharif 2016, the karnataka government notified 40 crops (27 food grains and oil seeds and13 annual, commercial and horticulture crops) for crop insurance. the crop insurance was purchased by 9,43,550 farmers in kharif 2016 under krspmfby. the coverage of farmers under crop insurance schemes during kharif season across the districts of karnataka from 2015 to 2018 is depicted in figure 1. the share of farmers which was 11.3% under nais 2015, increased to 12.2% in 2016, 17.1% in 2017 going down to 15.6% in 2018. and there has been further decline to 14.1% in 2019 under krspmfby during kharif season (not shown in figure -1). among districts, the coverage of farmers has been higher in dharwad, bidar, haveri, gadag and uttar kannada districts and, lowest in raichur, bellary, belagavi and yadgir under both, nais and krspmfby. in 2018, koppal, raichur, bagalkot and vijayapura showed increase in enrollment compared to previous years and the response was enormous with more than 50% of farmers enrolling for pmfby in dharwad, bidar, gadag and haveri for 2018 kharif. more than 50% of the farmers have enrolled for crop insurance in bidar, gadag and dharwad the highest being in bidar (72.3%) during 2018 kharif season. overall, there was good response from farmers in 2017, but delayed payment for 2016 claims and many anomalies found in cces and assessment of claims resulted in lower enrolment thereafter. in north karnataka, the increase in coverage was from 20.4% under nais to 25% under krspmfby. the increase in coverage was significant for rabi season also, which rose from 4.11% in 2015 (nais) to 15.1% in 2016 (krspmfby). the coverage of farmers has been higher in north karnataka region as compared to south karnataka. for 2016 kharif crop the sum insured for food and oil crops per hectare of land in karnataka varied from a minimum of rs. 19,000 for horse gram to a maximum of rs.51,000 for paddy in rainfed area and, from rs.33,000 for soybean to rs.82,000 for paddy in irrigated area. in the case of horticulture and commercial crops, the sum insured was minimum at rs. 41,000 for rainfed cotton and maximum at rs.1,34,000 for irrigated potato. the sum insured under rwbcis for fruits was minimum for sapota at rs. 25,000 and highest for grapes at rs. 5,00,000. in the case of vegetables, it was rs. 37,500 for cauliflower and rs.1,12,500 for chilly. and these rates varied between districts according to rainfed and irrigated conditions. while farmers’ share in premium is fixed at 1.5%, 2% and 5% of sum insured for rabi, kharif (food and oil seeds) and annual / commercial / horticulture crops respectively, the actuarial premiums rates varied from 1.02% to 60.0% of sum insured for different crops under krspmfby. and, the share of farmers in actuarial/gross premium paid to insurance companies in 2016 was 18.95% for crops under krspmfby and 42.8% for crops under rwbcis. this indicates that governments both centre and state together had to bear around 81% of the actuarial premium costs under krspmfby and around 57% of the insurance costs under rwbcis. figure 1. district-wise coverage of farmers under nais 2015, krspmfby 2016, 2017, 2018 in north karnataka during kharif season (%) source: agriculture insurance corporation india (aic), and agriculture department gok. doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.242 44 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 table 2 shows that there has been an increase in the number of farmers being enrolled under crop insurance. the coverage has increased from 8.73 lakh farmers under nais in 2015 to 9.44 lakhs in 2016 and 13.33 lakh farmers under krspmfby in 2017. tremendous effort seems to have been made in karnataka to enroll farmers in 2017 as the coverage of non-loanee farmers trebled (279%) in 2017 kharif season and has remained more than loanee farmers in subsequent years. table 2. coverage of farmers and area insured [2015, 2016,2017, 2018, 2019] karnataka year loanee farmers (lakhs) non loanee farmers (lakhs) total insured farmers (lakhs) area insured (ha) sum insured (lakhs) 2015 kharif (nais) 3.81 4.92 8.73 1216776 302678 2016 kharif (krspmfby) 7.43 2.01 9.44 1203610 560953 2017 kharif (krspmfby) 5.72 7.61 13.33 1803450 822345 2018 kharif (krspmfby) 5.33 6.90 12.23 1452383 644296 2019 kharif(krspmfby) 4.87 6.15 11.02 1247412 -nanorth karnataka 2015 kharif (nais) na na 7.2 1003661 235078 2016 kharif (krspmfby) 6.42 1.38 7.8 1030668 474273 2017 kharif (krspmfby) 4.79 4.01 8.8 1297411 590565 source: agriculture insurance corporation india (aic), and agriculture department, gok around 5% of the non-loanee farmers were covered under crop insurance before implementation of krspmfby [19,20]. in 2015 (nais), 4.92 lakhs non-loanee farmers had insured for crop loss in kharif season. they constituted 56% of the total insured farmers. in 2016, their share in total enrollment went down to around 21%. but, table 2 reveals that the share of non-loanee farmers in total enrollment improved (57%) under krspmfby during kharif 2017, but has been going down thereafter indicating reduction in the tempo of the scheme may be due to several anomalies associated with the scheme.but, their coverage in crop insurance has remained higher than loanee farmers. 5. performance of nais-2015 versus krspmfby 2016 table3 shows that a majority (71% in nais and 72% in krspmfby) of the farmers who purchased nais and krspmfby have benefited from crop insurance scheme in 2015 and 2016 respectively during kharif season in karnataka. however, there is a slight decrease in the percentage of farmers benefited in north karnataka, from 69% in 2015 to 65% in 2016. insurance claims were lesser in kharif 2016 in kalaburgi, vijayapura and yadagir districts under krspmfby due to good production of crop (especially tur). table 3. performance of nais 2015 and krspmfby2016 during kharif season in karnataka sl. no. details nais 2015-kharif krspmfby 2016 kharif 1. percentage of farmers benefited in karnataka 71% 72 % 2. percentage of farmers benefited in north karnataka 68% 65.3 % 3. area covered under crop insurance scheme karnataka: 10.0 % north karnataka: 16.8% karnataka: 9.9 % north karnataka: 14.2% 4. share of claims in sum insured (%) karnataka 23.2% north karnataka: 24% karnataka: 18.3%, north karnataka: 16.1% 5. average claim amount /per hectare of area insured average:rs 5770 north karnataka:rs 5269 average:rs 8535 north karnataka: rs 7509 6. share of claims in gross premium not available karnataka: 130% north karnataka: 110% source: agriculture insurance corporation india (aic) and agriculture department, govt of karnataka district wise coverage of crop insurance revealsthat, around 10% of crop area was insured under both nais 2015 and krspmfby 2016. the area insured was slightly higher (16.8% under nais and 14.2% under krspmfby) in north karnataka than in south karnataka. insurance claim was 23.2% of the total sum insured amount under nais in karnataka. however, the share of claim settlement in total sum insured declined from 23.2% under nais 2015 to 18.3% under krspmfby 2016 and was higher in districts like bidar, haveri, dharwad, and uttar kannada and lower in bagalkote, bellary, kalaburgi and raichur. in 2016, claims under krspmfby were higher than the gross premium by 130%. the claims were higher than the gross premium in bidar, dharwad, haveri, uttar kannada and koppal districts and, lesser than farmers’ premium in bellary, raichur, kalaburgi and vijayapura districts. the claim amount received by an insured farmer under krspmfby 2016 on an average amounted to rs.8535 per hectare (in the total area insured) in karnataka, which is better than the amount received under nais 2015 (rs.5770/ doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.242 45 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 per hectare). the claim amount on an average is rs.7509 per hectare in north karnataka, which is lower than the average claim amount of rs.15512per hectare in south karnataka. the enrolment and claim status for pmfby and rwbis together till march 2019 given in table 4 shows reduction in enrolment as compared to the enrollment in the first year of the two schemes in karnataka. delay in claim disbursement and lesser percentage of farmers benefited in 2017-2018 could be the reasons for lower response in 2018-19. issues of multi-picking, rice versus paddy in claim assessment, default by farmers in stating crops for insurance and ignoring individual farmer ’s losses in much case were the reasons for delay in claim settlement. while the claims as percent to sum insured were higher in 2017 and 2019 it was less than 50% in 2018. although there was delay in payment of claims, particularly for 2016 and 2017 kharif crop failure due to several disputes in claim assessment, the payment has been reported to be more than 98% for all the three years being 100% in 2017-18. but, major part of these claims has been paid to farmers almost after more than one year of their assessment. the share of initiated claims for pmfby 2016 kharif season in sum insured was less than 20% during 2016 but, was 1.3 times (130%) higher than the gross premium paid by farmers and state/central governments together and accounted for 95% of the gross premium collected for universal sompo and 196% of the gross premium collected for tata aig insurance company.about 62% of farmers registered with universal sompo and around 89% of those registered with tata aig were declared as beneficiaries.but, due to disputes in conducting cces, issues in estimating losses, yield challenges and due to bank related problems, only 75% of the claims initiated were paid by the two companies till january 2018. but, as said above, according to the information available from aic the insurance companies had cleared more than 90% of the claims as of march 2020. table 5. summary of crop insurance in karnataka (2016 krspmfby kharif) sl. no. details 1. no of farmers covered 9,43,550 2. coverage of farmers (% to total farmers) 12.21 3. no of applications/proposals 10,42,000 4. loanee farmers (%) 78.79 5. non -loanee farmers (%) 21.21 6. area insured (ha) 1203610.12 7. area insured per farmer (ha) 1.25 8. average sum insured per hectare (rs.) 46605.88 9. government subsidy per hectare (rs.) 5318.90 10. gross premium paid (rs.) 7898555788 11. centre’s share (rs.) 3200948790 12. state share (rs.) 3200948790 13. farmers’ share (rs.) 1496658208 14. farmers’ share (premium to sum insured) % 2.67 15. farmers’ share in actuarial/gross premium (%) 18.95 16. claims eligible for insurance (% of applications) 72.02 17. claims initiated (rs. in lakhs) 102729.58 18. share of claims in gross premium (%) 130.06 19. share of claim in sum insured (%) 18.3 20. average premium paid per application (rs.) 1436.33 21. average claim per eligible application (rs.) 15040.95 22. claims paid (rs. in lakhs) as of january 2018 76696.48 (74.65% of claims) 23. pending claims as of january 2018* (rs. in lakhs) 26033.1 (33.94% of beneficiaries) source: agriculture department, gok note: *as per the information available from aic, rs. 5812.12 lakhs (6% of the claims initiated), was the pending amount as of march 2020. table 4. karnataka pmfby & rwbcis combined crop insurance status (as on 31.08.2020) number of farmers insured (number in lakhs) area insured (in lakh ha.) sum insured farmers share in premium gross premium reported claims paid claim paid claims (as % to gross premium) no. of farmers benefitted (number in lakhs) (rs. in crores) 2016-17 29.407 24.751 9,356.49 234.796 1,343.48 2,065.78 2,061.07 153.41 19.189 (65%) 2017-18 21.409 18.053 8,718.51 234.632 1,830.53 858.18 858.18 46.88 6.187 (28.9%) 2018-19 19.534 22.400 9,708.35 273.318 1,859.16 2,903.91 2,846.7 153.12 13.297 (68%) source: https://pmfby.gov.in/statewisedatapage doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.242 46 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 in the entire karnataka, claims initiated under krspmfby were highest for haveri followed by dharwad and bidar districts. vijayapura was in the last rank in terms of insured farmers as well claims initiated. amount withheld due to bank related problems, multi picking issues, yield challenges was higher in dharwad district. uttar kannada had higher amount withheld due to rice versus paddy issue in loss assessment. 5.1 observations from farmers’ survey the level of awareness about the provisions of krspmfby/rwbcis/upis/cpis was found to be very low among farmers. only 48% of the farmers in the sample were aware of crop insurance schemes. even the loanee farmers who were covered under insurance by banks and societies did not know about the premium amount, details of crops insured and the extent of area insured under crop insurance. in 2016, around 61% of the farmers in the sample had availed crop loan. crop insurance was found to be higher among small farmers (34%) and lowest (17%) among the illiterate farmers. sixty two percent of loanee and 2% of non-loanee farmers in the sample opted for crop insurance in 2016. however, the share of nonloanee farmers in the entire karnataka is reported to be higher in 2017 kharif season. their share in total enrollment improved from 21% in 2016 to 57% in 2017. totally, 38% of the farmers in the sample had insured their crops under krspmfby in 2016 for kharif season their share being 58% in 2015 under nais. and, 4% of the insured farmers were tenants/sharecroppers. crop loss was reported by 74% of the farmers in the sample for 2016 kharif season. while 7% of the insured farmers in the sample had received claims for 2015 kharif, none of the farmers in the sample villages received claims for 2016 kharif season except farmers in mittimalakapur of raichur district. even these farmers reported that they were waiting for claims, which was withheld due to disputes (rice vs. paddy) in loss estimation between the state agriculture department and insurance companies. on an average 48% of the farmers in the sample also reported crop loss due to attack by wild animals at least once during the past 5 years from the day of the survey. only 29% of the insured farmers among the sample in belgavi district had opted for upis under krspmfby in 2016 kharif season. majority of the farmers were unaware of upis and some of those who knew about the scheme could not enroll for personal accident and life insurance due to the age limit of 70 and 50 years fixed respectively for enrolling under these two schemes. around 57% of the farmers felt that the scheme is beneficial to them. since upis is clubbed under krspmfby, separate details of coverage were not available for belgavi district where it is implemented on pilot basis. around 73% of the farmers felt the need for improving existing crop insurance schemes, particularly krspmfby. but they strongly feel that crop insurance is necessary to farmers and said that even the irrigated areas may need crop insurance in future with wide variations in climate experienced by them in recent years. 5.2 stakeholder perceptions from the regional workshops a majority of the farmers and other stakeholders like bankers, agriculture, revenue and insurance officials who participated in stakeholder workshops held in dharwad, vijayapura, belgaum, haveri, kalaburgi and raichur realize the need for crop insurance and opine krspmfby to be a good scheme. but, farmers faced difficulties in implementation of the scheme. to avail pmfby crop insurance in 2016 for kharif, they had to shuffle between banks, agriculture department and insurance companies for clarifications about crop insurance as some of the officials were unaware of the procedural issues. paddy growers in uttar kannada were not interested in crop insurance as they anyway get around 60%-70% yield and, loss above this is not met by crop insurance as per the existing formula. farmers were concerned about non-inclusion of other minor crops in claims despite of crop loss. although they had insured for multiple crops and paid the premiums accordingly, they found insurance claims being settled for only one crop in some taluks. since term sheets were not made available to all the farmers, they were unable to know the extent of coverage of loss and the terms and conditions. delayed cce was also a cause of concern among farmers whose fields were selected for cce as farmers had to wait for the harvest till cce was completed by officials or field workers. farmers assume anomalies in fixing threshold yield and therefore recommended district-wise scientific assessment of “potential yield” in fixing threshold yield. in addition, “interest on claim amount for delayed settlement”, “fixing deadline for disbursement of claims”, extending crop insurance to all crops including “sugarcane”, payment of “no claim bonus”, “automatic reinsurance of policies” every year, establishing “crop insurance corporation of india” or reviving agriculture insurance company of india, ltd and extending “free crop insurance to farmers run by government agency” were some of the main recommendations made by farmers in regional workshops. farmers felt that tendering of crop insurance would leave them in the hands of commercial interests or multi-national companies. like farmers, bankers also raised their voice in the doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.242 47 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 workshop saying that banks were unable to meet the requirements of crop insurance registration in time due to delays in notification by agriculture department, limited staff in banks, interruptions in internet connections, human errors due to dead line pressure leading to duplicate entries / mis-entry of account numbers, changes in the names of farmers as against that in aadhar, survey numbers, village name, mismatch of ifsc codes, branch name, mobile numbers, etc. bankers said that they cannot inspect every field to validate crops, which needs to be confirmed through raita sampark kendras, gram panchayats and agriculture extension officials. farmers continue to default by growing crops other than insured and therefore cannot claim insurance many a times. however, this problem seems to be resolved with recent changes made in pmfby guidelines which makes insurance voluntary for loanee farmers, hence avoiding default in listing crops. not maintaining seasonality discipline by agriculture department was stated to be one of the main causes for low coverage of farmers under crop insurance. the discussions at regional workshops helped researchers in understanding the gamut of crop insurance problems particularly at the implementation stage. it was found that delinking crop loan with crop insurance may reduce default by farmers on crop changes and increase coverage under the schemes. to reduce the anomalies in registration and avoid confusion among farmers, mandatory issuance of receipt/acknowledgment by banks to farmers for premium payment was found to be the way out. stakeholders felt that the agriculture department should organise bidding once in a year both for kharif and rabi seasons (may be in april) together to reduce delay in notifications. the central government has already approved tendering of crop insurance for three years period. involving agriculture university graduates in cces, quick settlement of claims within 3 months of yield estimation, social auditing of crop insurance schemes, enhancement of compensation on crop loss due to attack by wild animals, redressal of grievances at district level under the leadership of district commissioner were some of the suggestions made to make crop insurance reach all the farmers in the state. 5.3 beyond crop insurance crop insurance cannot be a single solution to mitigate risks of agriculture production. it is one of the measures and needs to be supplemented by other measures. there is a need to go beyond crop insurance and look into the measures that can strengthen and sustain agriculture production. some of the measures that can result in ease of doing agriculture are promoting agri ponds to increase the capacity of agriculture land, practical implementation of minimum support prices (msp), ensuring proper marketing through farmers’ organizations, increasing returns through organic farming and fair prices following best practices. during the survey, which was a drought year, sowing and greenery was noticed around agri ponds in villages, while fields at distance lay barren during agriculture season. so, investing on agri ponds could yield better returns and help farmers to sustain agriculture even in times of drought. 6. conclusions in sum, the study finds the necessity of crop insurance to farmers in the background of adverse weather conditions prevailing in the state. information gathered through discussions in regional workshops held across selected districts of north karnataka revealed that there was a positive response to pmfby in karnataka in initial years and the scheme created greater awareness about crop insurance among farmers. despite issues in claims and yield estimates, majority of the farmers feel that crop insurance is essential to farmers. the coverage of farmers under crop insurance in karnataka increased from 11.3% in 2015 (nais) kharif to 12.2% in 2016 and 17.0% in 2017 (krspmfby) for kharif season and, the increase was from 20.4% (under nais) to 25% under krspmfby for north karnataka. the increase in coverage was significant for rabi season also, which rose from 4.11% in 2015 (nais) to 15.1% in 2016 (krspmfby). insured area has increased from 10% under nais 2015 to 14.8 % under krspmfby 2017 during kharif season. officials feel that krspmfby has increased transparency through digitalization of the whole process, which according to them will reduce the anomalies to the minimum in the coming years. some of the difficulties faced in registration of farmers are being corrected with the joint efforts of nic, banks, insurance agencies and agriculture department. pmfby has many provisions to make farmers happy and secured if implemented in accordance with the guidelines following seasonality disciplines and sound cces. a few of the anomalies that existed are being cleared out after concerns were expressed from states and farmer representatives. a few more changes are expected to be inserted in the coming days by the central governmenta. the combined claims for pmfby and rwbis were higher than the gross premium collected in states like tamil nadu, karnataka, kerala and andhra pradesh. tamil nadu has been getting higher paid claims a the economic times, "govt approves changes in pmfby to make it optional for farmers", february 19, 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.242 48 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 every year being 3.3 times in 2016-17 and 1.5 times of gross premium in 2018-19. andhra pradesh and chhattisgarh farmers were better compensated in 2018-19. but paid claims as percentage of gross premium were very low for all the three years from 2016 to 2019 in bihar, gujarat, maharashtra and uttar pradesh. this could be the reason why bihar has opted out from pmfby in 2018. many other states may fall out of pmfby if there is no improvement in its implementation. the paid claims as share of gross premiums combined for pmfby and rwbcis were 77% in 2016-17, 89% in 2017-18 and 91% in 2018-19 for the countrya. if one separates claims of pmfby from rwbcis, they are reported to be much lower than the gross premium for all states together. it should always be clear among beneficiaries that insurance is for risk coverage. normal years and non-claims enable insurance agencies to make payment in risky years and towards claims in affected areas. only then insurance agency can participate and survive in insurance market and that is how insurance sector can benefit the needy. everyone who pays premium cannot expect immediate benefit. some of the private insurance companies have opted out of crop insurance due to high insurance claims and loss. while punjab did not opt for pmfby, states like west bengal, andhra pradesh have given up pmfby and, jharkhand started its own crop insurance. maintaining seasonal discipline is edifice of a sound crop system. violation of this has been a major hurdle in popularizing crop insurance in india. even earlier schemes had huge pending claims years after claim reporting. as per the report of the cag of india[1], the quantum of pending claims as ratio of reported claims in 2017 for india was rs. 7010 crores under nais, rs. 332 crores under mnais and rs.999 crores under wbais from kharif 2011 to rabi 2015-16. in karnataka, pending claims from kharif 2016 to rabi/summer 201819 amount to 311.9 crores under krspmfbyb. this makes farmers impatient and averse to crop insurance as they lose faith and do not have money in hand to meet the expenses including premium payment for the next crop season. therefore, it is necessary to take farmers in to confidence by making timely claim payment and strictly follow seasonality discipline. and the need of the hour is to create awareness among farmers and create cordial relations between farmers and insurance agencies through celebration of “crop insurance day or mela” every year before sowing season. farmers are not happy with loss assessment. every year there are issues in asa https://pmfby.gov.in/statewisedatapage b agriculture insurance corporation india (aic) sessment and therefore delays in claim settlement. there should be clarity and consensus between the agriculture department and insurance agencies on loss assessment. while the issue of paddy versus rice has been resolved in fixing threshold yield and claims, the issue of multi picking for crops like chilly, tomato and cotton needs to be clarified and fixed. and, farmers’ request for considering “no claim bonus”, setting up of district level “grievance redressal cell”, weather stations, considering individual heavy losses in rare cases with evidence, correcting differences in fixing threshold yield, “automatic reinsurance of policies” every year unless intimated by farmer for changes and payment of interest on delayed claims should be considered for smooth and large scale implementation of pmfby in india. references [1] cag. report of the comptroller and auditor general of india on performance of agriculture crop insurance schemes. report no.7 of 2017, ministry of agriculture and farmers’ welfare, union government (civil), new delhi, 2017. available at: www.cag.gov.in/.../report-no7-2017-performanc [2] ifft jennifer. government vs weather: the true story of crop insurance in india. research internship papers 2001, centre of civil society, new delhi, 2001. http://www.ccsindia.org/ [3] manojkumar k., sreekumar b. ajithkumar g. s. crop insurance scheme: a case study of banana farmers in wayanad district. discussion paper no. 54, kerala research programme on local level development, thiruvananthapuram, 2003. [4] nair reshmy. crop insurance in india: changes and challenges. economic and political weekly, 2010, 45(6): 19-22. [5] ravi kumar. crop insurance tribulations and prospects of farmers with reference to nuzvid, krishna district. international journal of marketing, financial services & management research, 2013, 2(9): 171181. [6] government of india. report of joint group on crop insurance, ministry of agriculture, department of agriculture and cooperation, government of india, new delhi, 2004. [7] banerjee d., bhattacharya u. innovations in agricultural insurance in india: retrospect and prospect. indian journal of agricultural economics, 2011, 66(3): 457-71. [8] swain mamata. crop insurance for adaptation to climate change in india. asia research centre doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.242 49 research on world agricultural economy | volume 01 | issue 01 | december 2020 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v1i1.242 working paper 61, london school of economics and political science, london united kingdom, 2014. [9] department of agriculture & cooperation. report of the committee to review the implementation of crop insurance schemes in india. ministry of agriculture, government of india, new delhi, 2014. [10] cse. pradhan mantri fasal bima yojana: an assessment. centre for science and environment, new delhi, 2017. [11] dey and maitra. agriculture insurance in india: promise, pitfalls, and the way forward, economic and political weekly, 2017, 52(52): 88-96. [12] directorate of economics and statistics. agriculture statistics at a glance. ministry of agriculture and farmers welfare, government of india, new delhi, 2016. [13] kalavakonda v., mahul o. crop insurance in karnataka. world bank policy research working paper no 3654, world bank, washington, d.c, 2005. [14] rajeev, meenakshi, bhattacharjee, m., vani, b p. crop insurance and risk mitigation: experiences from india. icdd working paper no. 15. university of kassel, germany, 2015. [15] nsso. situation assessment survey of farmers. 59th round, january 2003-december 2003 national sample survey office, ministry of statistics and programme implementation, government of india, 2003. [16] icfa. icfa report on crop insurance in india. indian council of food and agriculture, new delhi, 2016. [17] goudappa s.b., reddy b. s., chandrashekhar s.m. farmers perception and awareness about crop insurance in karnataka, indian research journal of extension education, 2012, special issue(2): 218-222. [18] singh archana. agriculture insurance in india. bimaquest, 2016, 16(2): 69-95. [19] vyas v., singh, s. crop insurance in india: scope for improvement. economic and political weekly, 2006, 41(43/44): 4585-4594. [20] indian express. pm crop insurance sees more coverage of non-loanee farmers. july 24, 2017. 25 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.789 copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). received: 26 december 2022; received in revised form: 11 february 2023; accepted: 15 february 2023; published: 27 february 2023 citation: zhu, b., x u , p., wang, k., 2023. a multi-group analysis of gender difference in consumer buying intention of agricultural products via live streaming. research on world agricultural economy. 4(1), 789. http:// dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.789 *corresponding author: ping xu, department of educational psychology, guangzhou sport university, guangdong, 510500, china; email: xupprivate@hotmail.com research article a multi-group analysis of gender difference in consumer buying intention of agricultural products via live streaming bing zhu1 ping xu2* ke wang2 1. department of marketing, assumption university, bangkok, 10210, thailand 2. department of educational psychology, guangzhou sport university, guangdong, 510500, china abstract: this study tries to understand the determinants of chinese consumers’ purchase behavior and reveal the role of gender in shaping consumers’ buying decisions for agricultural products from live-streaming platforms. for this purpose, an online survey was carried out to collect data in southern china. partial least squares structural equation modeling (pls-sem) was employed for path analysis and multi-group analysis. the results confirm the substantial influences of consumer attitude, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control on consumer buying intention. next, gender difference only exists concerning the effect of perceived behavioral control on consumer intention. however, the gap between male and female consumers on this point is small. furthermore, as each factor affects consumers’ purchase intention differently, corresponding implications are provided. keywords: pls-sem; permutation test; live-streaming commerce; gender differences; agriculture marketing 1. introduction agricultural products refer to “any agricultural commodity or product, whether raw or processed, including any commodity or product derived from livestock for human or livestock consumption” [1]. generally, fresh products like vegetables and fruits are easily perishable [2]. in this case, an effective agricultural product supply chain is critical. for example, if perishable products can be sold and quickly delivered to consumers in the shortest possible time, the losses of farmers can be significantly reduced [2]. hence, live-streaming commerce plays a crucial role. yu and zheng (2022) [2] defined live streaming as “an emerging online social and commerce tool”, and live streaming commerce emerged when many anchors used http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.789 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.789 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.789 mailto:xupprivate@hotmail.com http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8375-8305 http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3547-2326 26 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 live streaming as a means of real-time interaction with customers to sell products [3]. therefore, live-streaming commerce is deemed the latest trend in e-commerce [4,5]. the emergence of covid-19 has given birth to new business models and formats, such as “live streaming of agricultural products” [6], which stands out among many agricultural product online marketing models with its unique advantages, showing huge development potential [7]. livestreaming commerce has effectively activated the stalemate in the sales of agricultural products in the region and has been widely practiced by farmers and concerned by society in china. the sales of agricultural products on the live broadcast e-commerce platform have skyrocketed, which not only lifted many farmers out of poverty and promoted the development of the local economy but also popularized knowledge about agriculture and agricultural products to the public [8]. for instance, the sales of agricultural products achieved 6 billion yuan, and over 500 county magistrates became live-streaming anchors, assisting farmers in increasing their income [6,9]. more interestingly, as revealed by the “2022 china agricultural products ecommerce development report”, digital transformation and innovation become the new hot spots for the expansion of agricultural products in 2021, which has triggered different ways to promote agricultural products in online settings [10]. in this context, the prevalent live streaming of agricultural products will likely shorten the distance between farmers and the market and allow the unique agricultural products in rural areas to be sold farther and better. in addition, the promotion cost of live streaming is relatively low. due to market supply and demand information asymmetry, many unique agricultural products often need to be discovered. compared with advertising, live streaming has lower operating costs and broader coverage and is not limited by the market, time, and space. therefore, live streaming has gradually become an essential means of agricultural product sales [11]. as an emerging trend of marketing, live streaming commerce is still in its’ infant stage [12], which consequently has attracted attention from mainstream scholars who have emphasized consumer behavior in a general context, including sun et al. (2019) [13], sohn and kim (2020) [14], wongkitrungrueng and assarut (2020) [15], and molinillo et al. (2020) [16], etc. however, two research gaps require more attention. first, there still needs to be more evidence to reveal how consumers respond to live streaming in the context of agri-food marketing [17]. the use of live-streaming for agricultural product marketing is a relatively new form to promote agriculture in the digital age, and research on how consumers respond to this type of agricultural product marketing is still limited. further research is needed to understand the effectiveness of live streaming as a marketing tool for agricultural products and to identify the most effective strategies for reaching consumers through live streaming. second, it is meaningful to discover the role of gender in the live-streaming setting. gender is a universal characteristic independent of culture and time period [18]. generally, male and female consumers have different motivations, views, reasons, and concerns about shopping [19]. various studies [20-22] have revealed the effect of gender in e-commerce; still, similar studies are limited to live-streaming commerce [23]. thus, further research is needed to understand the impact of gender on consumer behavior and purchase decisions in the context of live commerce. this information may be useful to marketers and businesses looking to effectively target and engage audiences through live streaming. for this reason, we intend to apply the theory of planned behavior (tpb) to reveal how consumers’ attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavior control influence consumers’ buying intention for agricultural products in live streaming. further, we attempt to understand how male and female consumers react to buying agricultural products through livestreaming platforms. this study is structured as follows. the literature review will be discussed in the second section followed by the research method in the third section and the findings in the fourth section. discussion and conclusion are provided in the fifth section, and the managerial implication is discussed in the sixth section. 2. literature review 2.1 theory of planned behavior (tpb) the theory of planned behavior developed by ajzen (1991) [24] is an essential social psychological model that aims to illuminate differences in the voluntary behavior of consumers [25]. tpb model has been widely acknowledged and applied because of “its strong predictive power and high validity” [26]. in the tpb model, individual behavioral intention is directly affected by individual attitude, subjective norm (sn), and perceived behavioral control (pbc) [24,27]. as an endogenous variable, intention implies an individual consumer’s readiness to engage in a specific behavior, such as purchasing [28,29]. according to roseira’s study [30], the higher level of purchase intention that consumers generate, the more possibility that consumers will make an actual purchase. thus, purchase intention is deemed the most critical step for the food industry [2]. the first antecedent is the personal attitude, a willingness generated from past experience that influences a person’s response 27 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 to a particular object or situation [27,31]. regarding attitude toward a particular behavior, it is about a person’s assessment of performing a particular behavior [26]. if an individual possesses a positive attitude towards a behavior, his or her intention to engage in a particular action tends to be more robust [24,32]. previous studies, including gidaković et al. (2022) [33], shihab and putri (2018) [34], and singh & banerjee (2018) [35] have also proved the significant role of attitude in influencing consumer purchase intention. the second antecedent is perceived behavioral control, which relates to “personal control over the internal resource, such as confidence, skills or ability” [36]. perceived behavioral control manifests how difficult or easy it is to perform a behavior [24,37]. various studies have confirmed perceived behavioral control’s significant role in predicting an individual’s behavioral intention [37-39]. for the third antecedent, the subjective norm is described as the perception of general social pressure [36] regarding how behavior is viewed by references such as friends, parents, relatives, and colleagues [26,27]. prior studies have shown the substantial effect of subjective norms on behavioral intention [37,40,41]. accordingly, the following hypotheses are developed: h1: attitude towards buying agricultural products significantly affects purchase intention. h2: perceived behavioral control significantly affects purchase intention. h3: subjective norm significantly affects purchase intention. 2.2 gender gender strongly influences consumers’ cognitive thinking, emotional feelings, and purchasing behavior [42-44]. gender differences are assessed based on a constellation of factors that crucially affect consumer behavior, including “perception, attitude, motivation, preferences, perceived risk and satisfaction” [45]. more importantly, gender is associated with psychological and sociocultural behavioral traits in men and women [46,47] who present different states when processing information and making decisions [48]. for instance, women tend to be influenced by the surrounding environment [49]. women spend more time shopping and evaluating relevant product information [50,51] than men, who perceive shopping as a mission and pay attention to the items they need [52]. thus, to develop more accurate strategies and campaigns to effectively and efficiently reveal the preferences of male and female consumer groups, an exploration of the similarities or differences between the two consumer groups becomes desirable [46]. in recent years, gender differences have prevailed in understanding consumer behavior and attitude in the e-commerce milieu. there are significant gender differences in cognitive, affective, and behavioral attitudes toward online shopping [19], online purchase intention [53], and loyalty intention [54], etc. notably, gender serves as a moderator in various previous studies. for example, gender is treated as a moderator when applying utaut and utaut2 [21,55]. gender moderates the association between consumers’ online shopping motivations and their shopping intentions [56], between consumers’ perceptions and trusts to trigger users’ intention to use electronic payment [57], and between consumers’ perceived benefits and online repurchase intention [58]. however, the impact of gender on live e-commerce remains to be explored. for this reason, this study focuses on gender differences in consumers’ buying intention of agricultural products in live streaming. consequently, the following hypotheses are developed: h4: the strengthening of the relationship between attitude towards buying agricultural products and purchase intention will differ between male and female consumers. h5: the strengthening of the relationship between perceived behavioral control and purchase intention will be different between male and female consumers. h6: the strength of the relationship between subjective norm and purchase intention will vary between male and female consumers. 3. research design the data collection was conducted online in southern china from january to april 2020. g*power was applied to verify the least possible sample size for the study. the results showed that at least 77 respondents should be recruited to ensure the study had a power level of 80% with a small effect size of 0.15 at a significant level of 5%. eventually, 400 sample sizes were obtained with valid information; thus, the sample size of this study was considered sufficient for further data analysis. regarding questionnaire design, there are four items measuring attitude towards buying agricultural products, four assessing subjective norm, three measuring perceived behavior control, and three evaluating purchase intention. a 5-point likert scale developed by rensis likert [59] was applied to evaluate to what extent respondents agree or disagree with a given statement [60]. the items were derived from the manual “constructing a theory of theory of planned behavior questionnaire” developed by ajzen (https://people.umass.edu/aizen/tpb.html) (see also xu et al., 2022) [28]. more importantly, partial least squares structural equation modelling (pls-sem) was utilized in this study. in the study of xu et al. [28], the impacts of consumer attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural conhttps://people.umass.edu/aizen/tpb.html https://people.umass.edu/aizen/tpb.html 28 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 trol on consumers buying intention were tested by structural equation modelling to provide a general scenario of consumers’ responses to live shopping. in this study, based on existing findings, we not only further examined the structural relationship between the proposed structures via pls-sem, but also specifically examined multigroup analysis based on permutation tests [61]. consquently, more accurate and up-to-date consumer information will be obtained, such as how are male and female consumers similar or different in live shopping, particularly for agricultural products. firms and scholars can develop more precise market strategies for different customer groups in more detail. for this purpose, partial least squares multigroup analysis (pls-mga) was conducted. 4. results 4.1 evaluation of measurement model construct reliability and validity table 1 shows this study’s construct reliability and validity, consisting of the factor loading, cronbach’s alpha, dijkstra–henseler’s rho_a, composite reliability, and average variance extracted (ave). regarding factor loadings, all loading values are more significant than 0.7. also, the ave values of all constructs are more than the cutting-off point of 0.5 suggested by hair et al. (2017) [62]. therefore, the convergent validity is confirmed. next, cronbach’s alpha values varied from 0.827 to 0.861, over 0.7 advised by nunnally and bernstein (1994) [63]. as for composite reliability (c.r), all values are more significant than a recommended value of 0.7 [64]. besides, dijkstra–henseler’s rho_a [65] is a vital measure of internal consistency reliability for pls-sem, and all values should be greater than 0.7 [66,67]. hence, since all values fulfil the criteria, internal consistency is confirmed. discriminant validity heterotrait-monotrait (htmt) ratio of correlation is applied to evaluate discriminant validity [66]. htmt is “the ratio of the between-trait correlations to the within-trait correlations” [62]. the thumb of rule is that if the value of htmt is above 0.9, we failed to verify the existence of discriminant validity [62,64,67]. table 2 reveals that all values of htmt are smaller than 0.9; consequently, discriminant validity is proved. 4.2 evaluation of structural model table 3 shows the outcomes of hypothesis testing in which all the hypotheses are supported. subjective norm (β = 0.400, t = 7.398) affects consumers’ purchase intention most followed by attitude towards buying agricultural products (β = 0.283, t = 4.810) and perceived behavior control (β = 0.126, t = 3.166). in addition, the multicollinearity issue is not detected as all values of vif are less than 3 [62,64]. figure 1 visualizes the path analysis by presenting both path coefficient and t values. table 1. construct reliability and validity. factor loading cronbach’s alpha rho_a composite reliability ave attitude toward buying agricultural food (att) 0.827 0.828 0.885 0.658 att1 0.790 att2 0.819 att3 0.829 att4 0.807 perceived behavioral control (pbc ) 0.838 0.850 0.902 0.754 pbc1 0.895 pbc2 0.847 pbc3 0.863 subjective norm (sub_n) 0.843 0.844 0.895 0.680 sn1 0.825 sn2 0.826 sn3 0.824 sn4 0.823 purchase intention (int) 0.861 0.863 0.915 0.782 int1 0.883 int2 0.875 int3 0.895 29 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 4.3 multi-group analysis before proceeding to multi-group analysis, model fit was proved including standardized root mean square residual (srmr) = 0.054, normed fit index (nfi) = 0.962, exact fit criteria d_uls = 0.310 and d_g = 0.152. then, a power analysis was conducted to ensure that the number of observations in each group would meet the minimum sample size [68]. the results derived from g*power showed that 64 observations in each group were required to reach a power level of 80% at a significant level of 5%. thus, the group-specific sample size for both males (n = 155) and females (n = 245) was regarded as sufficient. next, measurement invariance was evaluated, which was a vital step before the multigroup analysis [68]. if invariance cannot be proved, it will result in the “low power of a statistical test, the poor precision of estimators, and misleading results” [68,69]. in this context, the measurement invariance of composite models (micom) procedure developed by henseler et al. (2016) [66] was introduced, which consists of three steps: 1) evaluating configural invariance, 2) establishing compositional invariance, and 3) assessing equality of a composite’s mean value and variance across groups [68-70]. accordingly, the permutation test was applied [61]. table 4 presents the results of micom using the permutation test. firstly, in general, configural invariance is automatically established at step 1. next, in step 2 correlations between the composite scores are compared with a 5% quantile for all variables (att, int, pbc and sub_ n). the results show that only the quantile of pbc was table 2. heterotrait-monotrait ratio (htmt). att int pbc sub_n att int 0.626 pbc 0.128 0.212 sub_n 0.701 0.671 0.071 table 3. hypothesis testing. path vif path coefficient t values 95% confidence intervals p values decision h1 att -> int 1.534 0.283 4.810 [0.172, 0.297] *** support h2 pbc -> int 1.011 0.126 3.166 [0.047, 0.204] ** support h3 sub_n -> int 1.523 0.400 7.398 [0.290, 0.494] *** support note: *** p < 0.001 ** p < 0.01. figure 1. path coefficient. 30 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 smaller than its correlation, indicating that compositional invariance was only established for the construct of pbc. consequently, partial measurement invariance of pbc was confirmed. in step 3, the equality of mean (3a) and variance (3b) were tested. the original difference between male and female groups is compared with 95% confidence intervals. at step 3a, the mean of att and pbc fell “within the 95% confidence interval of the lower (2.5%) and upper (97.5%) boundaries” [70] at the same time, int and sub_n did not, meaning that there were no significant differences between mean values of two groups (male vs. female) for att and pbc constructs. at step 3b, only the variance of pbc fell within the 95% confidence interval, concluding that full measurement invariance was established only for pbc construction. further, henseler’s mga (pls-mga) [66] was applied to analyze group-specific differences [68,71]. henseler's mga is a nonparametric test that generates boostrapping results for each group [66,68,69]. by using pls-mga, “a pvalue of differences between path coefficients lower than 0.05 or higher than 0.95 indicates a 5% level of significant difference between specific path coefficients across two groups” [70,72]. table 5 reveals that gender difference exists regarding the effect of pbc on int while no differences are found in the paths from att and sub to int. however, male and female have little difference in the impact of pbc on int as the path coefficient difference is 0.002. 5. discussion and conclusions the hypothesis testing results confirm the significant influences of attitude towards buying agricultural products (h1), perceived behavior control (h2), and subjective norm (h3) on consumers’ intention to buy agricultural products. interestingly, the subjective norm is the most influential factor, which shows the importance of group influence in chinese society. under the influence of group consciousness and norms, social groups can produce common and consistent behaviors at any time. in this paper, consumers’ purchase intention is influenced by the group they belong to and the people around them, that is, the preference of the people around them (family members, relatives, friends, or colleagues, etc.) for a particular product or a brand will influence their purchasing decision. next, in terms of multi-group analysis of gender difference, through measurement invariance of composite models (micom) procedure, full measurement invariance was established only for perceived behavioural control. further, the multi-group analysis results reveal gender differences in predicting perceived behavioral control on consumer intention, indicating that the relationship between perceived behavior control and intention is slightly stronger for female consumers. it can be said that female respondents did not perceive buying agricultural products from a live-streaming commerce platform as complex. table 4. results of measurement invariance assessment based on a permutation test. configural invariance (step 1) compositional invariance (step 2) partial measurement invariance equal mean (step 3a) equal variance (step 3b) full measurement invariance original korrelation 5% original difference confidence interval original difference confidence interval att yes 0.989 0.996 no –0.089 [–0.173, 0.183] 0.765 [–0.397, 0.450] yes/no int yes 0.998 0.999 no –0.176 [–0.176, 0.163] 0.777 [–0.392, 0.407] no/no pbc yes 0.977 0.971 yes –0.154 [–0.168, 0.159] 0.159 [–0.166, 0.180] yes/yes sub_n yes 0.990 0.996 no –0.377 [–0.158, 0.172] 0.949 [–0.386, 0.416] no/no table 5. results of the structural equation model multi-group analysis. female male path coefficient confidence intervals (bias corrected) path coefficient confidence intervals (bias corrected) path coefficient difference henseler’s plsmga attint 0.319 [0.169, 0.486] 0.159 [–0.298, 0.242] 0.160 0.064 pbc int 0.124 [0.041, 0.203] 0.122 [–0.154, 0.252] 0.002 0.971** sub_n int 0.409 [0.259 0.540] 0.310 [0.141, 0.503] 0.099 0.205 *** p < 0.01; ** p < 0.05 31 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 this phenomenon may be related to the increasing number of female anchors on live broadcast platforms. as pointed out by chen (2021) [73], by 2020, female anchors in china’s live-streaming commerce industry accounted for 65.3%, and among the three platforms of taobao, kuaishou, and douyin, female anchors account for 71.5% in kuaishou. 68.3% in taobao and 57.5% in douyin. compared to male consumers, female anchors are more able to resonate with female consumers. in chinese society, women usually spend more energy and time caring for their families. for example, they care about what their family eats, how to eat healthily, etc. the positioning of this traditional role also makes female consumers more willing to take the time to understand the agricultural products sold in the live broadcast room and actively interact with anchors seeking (predominantly female anchors) more relevant information. therefore, they will feel that it is easy to buy agricultural products via livestreaming commerce platforms. this article also has its limitations. first, limited to quantitative research, it is impossible to obtain rich descriptive data on specific phenomena of consumers’ behavior in purchasing agricultural products. therefore, future studies using mixed methods studies are encouraged. furthermore, in addition to gender differences, intergenerational differences can also be used for future research. generation y and z’s consumption behaviors, characteristics, and patterns in online shopping are a good focus. 6. implications 6.1 theoretical implications this study contributes to the existing literature in several ways. first, it confirms the validity of the theory of planned behavior (tpb) in the context of agricultural marketing. second, the study reveals the importance of gender differences in promoting agricultural production in a digital setting. therefore, this study can be used as a reference to explain the role of gender in encouraging consumers’ choice of agricultural products. 6.2 managerial implications at a practical level, managerial implications are provided to increase consumer intention to buy agricultural products. as far as subjective norms and attitudes are concerned, the “family coupon” program can be implemented in the live-streaming room of agricultural products to provide different degrees of discount. consumers can apply for “parent-child coupons” in the live broadcast room or platform to share with relatives and friends. with more participation of relatives and friends, consumer attitude towards buying agricultural products will be more positive. this will trigger consumers’ willingness to buy agricultural products. as far as perceived behavior control is concerned, mainly when gender difference is considered, it is suggested that the live-streaming room or commerce platform should make purchasing more convenient and more manageable. in e-commerce, male consumers are generally more intuitive than female consumers. they tend to get information directly to make better comparisons; therefore, the convenient and time-saving live-streaming shopping experience is more favored by male consumers. consequently, if live-streaming anchors or platforms provide more detailed product information while promoting agricultural products, it will reduce ambiguity. the policy to claim for the product return, to redeem to get gifts or discounts should be clear to reduce the risk. in addition, live-streaming platforms should conduct regular reviews of agricultural products quality and production qualifications to reduce consumer concerns about such issues. these practices will benefit both female and male consumers. live broadcast platforms and anchors should strive to provide consumers with a safe, simple, and intuitive consumption experience while promoting agricultural products to increase consumers’ intention to purchase and ultimately promote actual purchase behavior. author contributions bing zhu: writing, methodology, data analysis and conceptualization; ping xu is writing, data collection, conceptualization. funding this work has received funding from the guangdong provincial education department of china. it is a part of the 2021 guangdong province key scientific research platform and project “research on the economic effects of vocational education innovation supply in guangdong-hong kong-macao greater bay area based on the rural revitalization strategy” (2021zdzx4070). data availability raw data are from china. the questionnaire and derived data supporting the findings of this study are available from the first author, bing zhu, upon request. 32 research on world agricultural economy | 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[73] chen, l.r., 2021. analysis of the market status and competition pattern of china’s live broadcast e-commerce industry in 2021: the development gap of anchors on different platforms appears [internet] [cited 2022 dec 15]. available from: https://www. qianzhan.com/analyst/detail/220/210625-748acc31. html https://doi.org/10.1108/ebr-11-2018-0203 https://doi.org/10.1108/imr-09-2014-0304 https://doi.org/10.14707/ajbr.200087 https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8400396 https://doi.org/10.3390/su10020557 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10055-021-00586-3 https://www.qianzhan.com/analyst/detail/220/210625-748acc31.html https://www.qianzhan.com/analyst/detail/220/210625-748acc31.html https://www.qianzhan.com/analyst/detail/220/210625-748acc31.html 36 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.788 1. introduction climatic factors, geographical location and ecosystem services have a significant contribution to increasing the farmer’s choice to cultivate a particular crop [1-7]. for instance, wheat, mustard and gram crops need minimum temperature during sowing time, and high temperature during harvesting time. sugarcane crop needs different climatic conditions at various stages of production [8]. rice crop needs high temperature and an abundance of water during sowing time; moderate temperature and high rainfall during plant growth; and high temperature, minimal copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). received: 22 december 2022; received in revised form: 24 february 2023; accepted: 1 march 2023; published: 6 march 2023 citation: singh, a.k., ashraf, s.n., sharma, s.k., 2023. farmer’s perception on climatic factors and socialeconomic characteristics in the agricultural sector of gujarat. research on world agricultural economy. 4(1), 788. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.788 *corresponding author: ajay k. singh, school of liberal arts and management, dit university, dehradun, uttarakhand, 248009, india; email: a.k.seeku@gmail.com; kumar.ajay_3@yahoo.com research article farmer’s perception on climatic factors and social-economic characteristics in the agricultural sector of gujarat ajay k. singh1* shah nawaz ashraf 2 sandeep kumar sharma1 1. school of liberal arts and management, dit university, dehradun, uttarakhand, 248009, india 2. entrepreneur academy, mohammed vi polytechnic university, ben guerir, 43150, morocco abstract: this study investigated the implication of various factors, including climatic conditions, social-economic variables, agricultural inputs, technological development, institutional support, and adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector of gujarat. a confirmatory factor analysis (cfa) was used to analyse the farm-level data from 240 randomly selected farmers across eight districts. the study found that farm income per hectare is influenced by climate adaptation strategies, appropriate technology, annual income, education level, family size, fertilizer application, farm income from cash crops, financial support from the government, and access to credit. the study recommends the use of appropriate technology and adaptation strategies to mitigate the negative impact of climate change, as well as increase farmers’ access to credit, diversify crops, and encourage technological development in the agricultural sector. in addition, agricultural extension and development agencies should train farmers regularly to improve their understanding of climate adaptation practices and other inputs. keywords: agricultural sector; appropriate technology; climate change; farm income; adaptation strategies http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v3i4.803 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0429-0925 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5410-5404 37 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 precipitation and no rainfall during harvesting time [9]. the growth and production of other crops like groundnut, sesame, soybean, cotton, sorghum, millet, etc. also depend on different climatic conditions [9]. agricultural production activities, therefore, primarily depend on climatic factors [8,9]. whereas, high variability in climatic factors in various seasons may reduce the productivity of crops [2,3,9-12]. extreme climatic events such as drought, floods, cyclones and heat waves may also produce a negative impact on the agricultural production system [13,14]. findings of previous literature have concluded that climatic factors are fluctuating due to the rising quantity of ghgs emissions in the atmosphere [3,9,15]. moreover, ecosystem services such as water and land resources are useful inputs for agricultural production activities. while, the quantity of ecosystem services is declining due to rising population, urbanization, industrialization, infrastructural development, production activities of industries and agriculture and climate change [1,3,14]. also, the excessive use of pesticides and fertilizer in the agricultural sector also reduces soil fertility, quality of water and air [9,16]. it is stated earlier that agricultural production and its allied activities are adversely affected due to climate change and ecosystem services. therefore, the sector needs technological advancement, appropriate technology, climate adaptation strategy (cas) and institutional support to reduce the vulnerability of crops due to climate change [3,5,6,12,17,18]. technological advancement and appropriate technology will bring significant changes in this sector to cope with climate change [1,5,6,9]. adaptation strategy is a practice or action which reduces or mitigates the negative consequences of any event in a production process. it can be divided into two categories i.e., autonomous and planned adaptation. autonomous adaptation is an involuntary and regular incidence that creates a capacity to adjust to climate change impact in a system without taking any action. planned adaptations strategy is associated with farmers’ practices in a system to reduce the negative impacts of human and natural activities in it [19]. mitigation means all human interventions which abate greenhouse gas emissions from various sources [6,9]. institutional support also helps to increase the farmer’s understanding to apply different practices to reduce the uncertainty of climate change impacts on crop production [20]. public policies, adaptation practices and climate action policies support to reduction the negative consequences of climate change in the agricultural sector [4,5,14,19,21]. india is a developing and highly agricultural-intensive country. thus, the agricultural sector has a greater contribution to sustaining the social-economic development of a farming community in india. as india is located at low latitudes, therefore, its agricultural sector is highly vulnerable due to climate change [9,14,15,22,23]. in india, numerous studies have examined the climate change impact on agricultural production, food-grain yield and commercial crops, agricultural productivity and agricultural gdp at district, state and national levels [1,2,8-10,16,24-33]. previous findings reported that yield, production and cropped area of cash crops decline due to climate change in india. accordingly, climate change produces a negative impact on sustainable food security (sfs), livelihood security, the income of farmers, rural development and environmental factors and sustainable agricultural development (sad) in india [12,34,35]. sfs is a state in which the agricultural sector meets the food security of all people to ensure their physical and mental health, and provide fodder to all livestock as sustaining the quality and quantity of ecosystem services [35]. at present india’s population is around 1.37 billion and its population is projected to be 1.53 billion by the year 2030 [9]. hence, india would be required to produce 70% more food grains to meet the food security of future generations [36]. moreover, high population growth, industrialization, urbanization and labour migration would increase the extensive burden on natural and capital resources, and the agricultural sector in india [9]. most developing countries including india would be unable to maintain irrigation systems and ecosystem services which further hamper sustainable agricultural development [37,38]. india, therefore, needs to protect ecosystem services by using technological advancement, appropriate technology and cas in the agriculture sector [5,6,10,16]. the use of new technologies, scientific techniques, climate resilient technologies and appropriate technology will reduce the negative impact of climate change [3,5,39-41]. cas would be useful to reduce the risk, and increase the economic capacity of farmers to manage the climate change impact on the agricultural sector. education level, access to information, electricity for irrigation, agricultural subsidies, water and land management practices, farm income, training, social capital, agroforestry, bio-diversification, and communication are also detected as the most cas influencing factors [5,12,18]. changes in planting time, water and nutrient management practices, fertilizer, irrigation management and technology also would work as a cas [9,13]. water conservation and management, heat tolerance crops, high yielding of seed, change in cropping pattern, mixed cropping pattern, crop diversification, tree planting, late sowing of seed and application of green fertilizer can be used as cas [3,16,19,25]. crop rotation, drip irrigation, local farming techniques, green technologies and green fertilizer are the various practices of cas [42]. 38 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 in addition to the above, agricultural technologies would be positive to increase crop productivity and reduce the negative consequences of socio-economic activities on natural resources; decreases the use of water, fertilizer and pesticides in farming; reduce chemicals in the rivers and groundwater [3,5,6,41,43]. it can be used for ploughing, planting seeds in soil, watering, irrigation, and fertilizer and others [6,44]. subsequently, technological development and agricultural technologies have a positive and significant impact on the growth of the agricultural sector in india [5,6,44,45]. applications of traditional technologies have also provided numerous benefits in agricultural activities in india [46-50]. furthermore, appropriate technology will bring several alternatives to increase the sustainability of ecosystem services as its practices in production activities will abate the ghgs emission in the atmosphere [5,6]. appropriate technology may be conducive to maintaining economic, social and environmental conditions of available resources [6,51]. the use of appropriate technology in the agricultural sector is helpful to increase the productivity, efficiency and profitability of farmers [5,6,39]. appropriate technology is a new technology or idea or knowledge or knowledge-know-how which reduces the negative impact of social and economic development on the environment [5,6]. most specifically, appropriate technology and technological development will improve land pattern and management, recovery of surplus land, maintain the cropping pattern in various crop seasons, a technique of farming, marketing facilities, seed germination and seed viability, soil quality and fertility, and land productivity in the agricultural sector [5,6,39,52-54]. agricultural production activities depend upon different types of indicators such as climatic factors, ecosystem services, technological advancement, appropriate technology, agri industries, irrigated area, physical assets, farm management practices, government policies, credit accessibility, geographical location, institutional support and others. therefore, it is indispensable to assess the most valuable factors which enhance the growth of the agricultural sector. hence, there is a requirement to apply a confirmatory factor analysis (cfa) to examine the contribution of the above-mentioned indicators to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change in the agricultural sector. moreover, few studies could observe the significance of mentioned variables in farming activities using cfa. hence, it is essential to examine the role of highlighted indicators to mitigate the negative impact of climate change in the agricultural sector. accordingly, this study achieved the answer to the following research questions: ● what is the significance of climatic and non-climatic factors, & climate adaptation strategies (cas) in the agricultural sector? ● how social-economic factors, agricultural inputs, technological advancement, and institutional supports related activities can be used as cas in the agricultural sector? this present study realized the following objective: ● to examine the latent variables in five different categories of variables (i.e., climate change, social-economic, agricultural input, technological change and appropriate technology, and institutional support and cas) in the agricultural sector using a confirmatory factor analysis (cfa). 2. research methods and materials 2.1 study area gujarat is located on the western coast of india and it is bounded by the arabian sea in the west and southwest. figure 1 shows the geographical and administrative location of gujarat. the state touches the international border of pakistan; and rajasthan, madhya pradesh and maharashtra states and the dadra, diu and nager haveli union territories of india. geographically, the state is located at a latitude and longitude of 23.00 north and 72.00 east, respectively. the state has a 1,659-kilometre coastline which is the largest among the other indian states. it occupied a total 196,244 square kilometer geographical area that has a significant share of forest area, grazing land and arable land total geographical area of gujarat. the state is located in a peninsular region which can be divided into four sub-regions. administratively, the state has 33 districts that have high diversity in agricultural, industrial and service sector, and social-economic activities of the population. gujarat is a highly industrialized state and it has appropriate start-ups and entrepreneurship ecosystem among the indian states [55]. it has a dominant position in the production of many industrial goods such as diamonds, petrochemical, medical devices, medical engineering goods and services, drugs, dairy products, etc. the state also has a significant share of the agricultural sector in india’s gross domestic product. the agricultural and its allied sector meet the requirement of raw materials for agro-industrial development in gujarat. sugarcane, mustard, groundnut, soybean, cotton, potato, rice, sorghum, wheat and maize are the major crops of this state [6]. gujarat is a climate-sensitive state due to its geographical location, and it has high diversity in ecosystem services, availability of natural resources, demographical change and social-economic development of farmers. climate change has a diverse negative impact on the livelihood security of farmers in gujarat [5,6,35,56]. therefore, this state was considered a study area for the proposed research. 39 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 2.2 collection of primary data a total of 8 districts out of 33 (i.e., anand, banas kantha, bharuch, bhavnagar, junagadh, kheda, surat, and vadodara) were selected based on their contribution to the agricultural sector (figure 2). these districts collectively contribute around 46% of agricultural labour, 36% of agricultural district domestic product, 36.6% of gross cropped area, 31% of net area sown and 44% gross irrigated area of gujarat. also, these districts have a high share in arable land, agricultural workforce, cropping intensity, irrigated area, and cropped area under food-grain and cash crops in gujarat. these districts are highly vulnerable due to climate change as compared to other districts of gujarat [14,35]. two blocks from each district were chosen purposively, and 16 blocks were considered for a field visit. one village from each block was selected randomly. thus, 16 villages were considered in this study. subsequently, 15 farmers from each village were identified randomly for a personal interview. hence, 240 farmers were interviewed. the personal interview of selected respondents was conducted from 1st october 2019 to 31st december 2019. a well structural questionnaire survey was conducted for the personal interview of selected farmers. the questionnaire was filled up by the research team during the personal interview of farmers. the questionnaire was divided into four broad sections. the 1st section includes the information associated with the social-economic structure of farmers, gender, age, family size, annual income, educational level and income-generating occupations. the 2nd 5 figure 1. geographical location of gujarat. source: author’s formation. 2.2 collection of primary data a total of 8 districts out of 33 (i.e., anand, banas kantha, bharuch, bhavnagar, junagadh, kheda, surat, and vadodara) were selected based on their contribution to the agricultural sector (figure 2). these districts collectively contribute around 46% of agricultural labour, 36% of agricultural district domestic product, 36.6% of gross cropped area, 31% of net area sown and 44% gross irrigated area of gujarat. also, these districts have a high share in arable land, agricultural workforce, cropping intensity, irrigated area, and cropped area under food-grain and cash crops in gujarat. these districts are highly vulnerable due to climate change as compared to other districts of gujarat [14,35]. two blocks from each district were chosen purposively, and 16 blocks were considered for a field visit. one village from each block was selected randomly. thus, 16 villages were considered in this study. subsequently, 15 farmers from each village were identified randomly for a personal interview. hence, 240 farmers were interviewed. figure 1. geographical location of gujarat. source: author’s formation. 40 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 section includes information on the gross cropped area, irrigated and non-irrigated area, production of all crops, number of livestock and agricultural inputs. the 3rd section comprises information on the cost of technologies, appropriate technology, financial support from the government and credit accessibility from banks, farmer’s association with agri-entrepreneurs, skill supports, farmer’s adaptation strategy and agricultural development agencies. the 4th section contains open-ended questions on various aspects such as government policies, marketing, and pricing of products, etc. of the agricultural sector. qualitative and quantitative information was collected from the farmers to achieve the specific objectives of the study. 2.3 collection of secondary data information related to climatic factors such as actual annual average evapotranspiration, annual average maximum temperature, annual average minimum temperature, annual average precipitation and annual actual rainfall were derived from the india meteorological department (imd), ministry of earth sciences (government of india) and official website of international crops research institute for the semi-arid tropics. the statistics of mentioned climatic factors were used during 1991-2015. since the statistics were available in time series. hence, the coefficient of variation (cv) in mentioned climatic variables was included in the statistical analysis. the farm harvest price of each crop was taken from the annual report (20192020) of farm harvest prices of principal crops in india published by the directorate of economics and statistics, department of agriculture, cooperation and farmers welfare, ministry of agricultural and farmers welfare, goi, new delhi. figure 2. location of districts. source: district wise statistics of cmie (2019-2020). 41 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 2.4 data analysis analysis of qualitative and quantitative data cfa is a statistical technique that identifies the latent and constructed variables in production activities [57]. the technique is helpful to describe the role of climatic and non-climatic factors in the agricultural sector [57-60]. it makes the group of indicators into constructs or factors and observes the interrelationship among them [38,61]. hadrich and olson [58] examined the correlation coefficients between farm size and farm performance, and the role of latent variables in farm performance in the usa using a cfa. hosseini and eghtedari [59] detected the factors affecting the development of nanotechnology in the agricultural sector of iran using cfa. karakas et al. [62] have determined the factors which were useful to increase the farmer’s knowledge and skills regarding bureaucratic procedures using cfa. syan et al. [63] applied the cfa technique to examine the farmer’s intention to adopt sustainable agriculture practices in punjab (india). narmilan et al. [41] used cfa to estimate the relationship between factors with regard to precision agricultural techniques and farmers’ adoption capacity in sri lanka. pakmehr et al. [60] used cfa to determine the factors affecting farmers’ adaptation to climate change-induced water pressure in iran. laurett et al. [38] examined the sad-affecting factors in brazil using exploratory factor analysis. singh et al. [64] also applied pca to examine the performance of indicators associated with sustainable livelihood security in indian states. this study also used the cfa technique to inspect the performance of climatic and non-climatic factors in the agricultural sector. rationality of confirmatory factor analysis (cfa) the authors of this study collected information on numerous factors which were essential for the growth of the agricultural sector. these variables have diverse contributions to the agricultural production system. therefore, this study used cfa to identify the latent variables which cannot be observable [63]. a latent variable can be decided as per its variance and covariance in the set of variables. for this, cfa helps to reduce the dimensionality of a set of variables and further it may be useful to develop a mathematical model for different statistical and empirical analyses. if the variance of a variable in a specific category of factors is less than 40%, then the variable can be dropped from the statistical analysis [57]. the estimate infers that the variable has an insignificant contribution among the set of variables. in the agricultural sector, there are many variables that can be used as dependent and independent variables. therefore, it is expected that the contribution of some variables may be latent in farming activities. hence, cfa was used to examine the latent variables among the selected set of variables. validity of cfa results cronbach’s alpha score was estimated to check the reliability of the scale coefficient of individual and group factors [59,65]. if the statistical value of cronbach’s alpha score is less than 0.50, then undertaken variables cannot consider for cfa. furthermore, kaiser-meyer olkin (kmo) test was also used to check the perfection of the sample and consistency of cfa [38]. if the kmo value is detected as more than 0.5, the sample has adequacy for cfa [57]. finally, the chi2 value was also considered to check the viability of cfa. description of variables included for cfa this study applies the cfa technique to observe the latent and construct factors in the agricultural sector. therefore, 31 factors in five categories: (i) climate change, (ii) social-economic, (iii) agricultural input, (iv) technological development and appropriate technology, and (v) institutional support and cas-related variables were used (table 1). previous studies have used climatic and nonclimatic factors to observe the impact of climate change in the agricultural sector [1,2,8,16,22,32]. few studies have considered only climatic factors to assess the impact of climatic factors on production, yield and cropped area of foodgrain and cash crops [26,28]. as district-level information on climatic factors was available during 1991-2015. since, the coefficient of variation in climatic factors measures their long-term variability [1,5]. thus, the coefficient of variation (cv) in a particular climatic factor captures its integrated influence in the agricultural sector. therefore, cv in climatic factors was considered to examine the significance of climatic factors in the agricultural sector. kumar et al. [15]; singh et al. [66] also used cv in climatic factors to observe the climate change impact on sugarcane production in indian states. a farmer’s social-economic profile also plays a significant role to increase farm income [67]. thus, gender, age, family size, education level, main occupation, annual income, family size and a number of livestock were also included in the statistical analysis of this study [3,12,68-71]. here, education level was used to capture the influence of technical skills, and livestock was used to analyze the impact of physical assets of farmers in the agricultural sector. 42 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 agricultural output was valued as the monetary value of food grain and cash crops which were cultivated by farmers during the survey year. the monetary value of each crop was estimated as per farm harvest price. aggregate economic values of all crops were considered as gross agricultural production. accordingly, per hectare farm income was assessed as a ratio of gross agricultural production with the gross cropped area. while, per hectare farm income from cash crops was also estimated separately. gross cropped area, irrigated and non-irrigated area, use of agricultural labour per hectare, farm income from cash crops farming, fertilizer application per hectare, number of livestock and crop diversification index (cdi) were considered as agricultural inputs [4,5,22,45]. cash crop farming is also useful to increase farmers’ income and economic capacity [1]. subsequently, farmers can apply various inputs to get a better return in the cultivation of crops in the next season. crop diversification measures how many crops can be cultivated in a specific area in a year. agricultural production and income of farmers are to be increased as crop diversification increases. moreover, crop diversification is also a vital driver to familiarizing table 1. summary of the variables. category variables symbol unit climate change related variables cv in actual annual average evapotranspiration cvaaea mm cv in annual average maximum temperature cvaamaxtem °c cv in annual average minimum temperature cvaamintem °c cv in annual average precipitation cvaapre mm cv in annual actual rainfall cvaarf mm social-economic related variables gender (male = 1; female = 0) genres number farmer’s age ageres years family size famsizres number types of family (joint = 1; single = 0) typfamres number farmer’s education level (years spent in school) edulevres years farmer’s main occupation (farming = 1; farming and others = 0) maioccres number farmer’s annual income annincfam rs. number of livestock (cow, goat, buffalo) nlf number agricultural input related variables farm income/ha. fiph rs./ha. gross cropped area tagla ha. irrigated area irrare ha. non-irrigated area nonirrare ha. crop diversification index cdi % use of agricultural labour/ha. ualph number/ha. farm income from cash crops farming/ha. ficcph rs./ha. fertilizer application/ha. faph kg./ha. technological development and appropriate technology related variables cost of technology/ha. cotepeha rs./ha. economic viability of technology (yes = 1; no = 0) ecoviatec number social viability of technology (yes = 1; no = 0) socviatec number environmental viability of technology (yes = 1; no = 0) envviatec number appropriate technology (yes = 1; no = 0) apptec number institutional support and climate adaptation strategies related variables financial problem of farmers (yes = 1; no = 0) finpro number financial support from government and credit accessibility from banks (yes = 1; no = 0) finsupgov number farmer’s association with various stakeholders (i.e., agri-entrepreneurs, agricultural universities, agricultural extension offices, coo-operative societies, agri industries) (yes = 1; no = 0) farassstahol number skill and technical support from technology developers (yes = 1; no = 0) skitecsupfar number farmer’s adaptation strategy to climate change (yes = 1; no = 0) adstfa number source: author’s compilation based on primary and secondary data. 43 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 the climate change impact on cultivation [5,2,72,73]. hence, cdi was used to examine the influence of crop diversification on per hectare farm income. while, the crop diversification index (cdi) was estimated as: (cdi)i = =1   2 (1) here, cdi is the crop diversification index of ith farmers; ca is the cropped area of a crop (in percentage) under 1 to nth crops during the survey year in equation (1). any agricultural technology may have multiple practices in the agricultural sector. therefore, the impact of technological change in the agricultural sector cannot be observed easily. prior researchers used the time trend factor, new varieties of seeds and crop diversification as proxy variables to capture the impact of technological development in the agricultural sector [1,12,42,45,74]. irrigation facilities, fertilizer and high-yielding verities of seeds also reflect the overall technological development in farming activities. in this study, the cost of technology/hectare was used to capture the impact of technological development on farm income. this study assumes that technological development needs more financial resources to bear the cost of the latest technology. further, it also accepts that if the cost of technology increases then it infers the technological development in the agricultural sector. cost of technology is the gross amount which is paid by farmers to bear the cost of tractors and another mechanical devices during various stages of crop production, i.e., land preparation, seed planting, electricity or fuel charge for irrigation and harvesting. accordingly, the cost of technology/ hectare was used to examine the significance of technological development in the agricultural sector. ashraf and singh [6] also used a similar variable to capture the impact of technological development on the farm income of the agricultural sector. appropriate technology ensures the economic, social and environmental viability of the resources in the production process [5,6,39,40,51]. most studies claimed that an appropriate technology maintains sustainability in the economic, environmental and social aspects [6]. in the context of the agricultural sector, technology can be appropriate when it meets said aspects. the economic aspect of technology is concerned with purchasing power of farmers and the social aspect of technology is associated with its acceptability and usability by farmers. economically viable technology also provides a better return to the farmers. the environmental viability of technology helps to ensure the protection of ecosystem services (i.e., soil fertility, and air and water quality) and natural resources. this aspect of technology is useful to reduce ghg emissions from the production sector and it may be highly conducive to reducing more existence of climate change. hence, the measurement of appropriate technology is not easy [5,6]. also, the scientific research community could not provide a universally acceptable indicator and develop a model to examine the impact of appropriate technology in the agricultural sector. therefore, existing researchers could not assess the influence of appropriate technology on the production, yield, and growth of the agricultural sector. though, previous studies used different variables such as time trend factor, cost of technology, fertilizer intensity, tractor, ict, transplant technique, etc. to perceive the significance of appropriate technology and technological development in this sector [39,45]. accordingly, it was difficult to observe the viability of appropriate technology and its components. the authors of this study used some proxy questions to include the farmer’s view on appropriate technology and its other aspects. for instance, whether applied technologies are economically feasible for you or not (if yes then 1 otherwise 0)? whether applied technologies are socially acceptable to you or not (if yes then 1 otherwise 0)? whether applied technologies are environmentally sound or not (if yes then 1 otherwise 0)? henceforth, in this study, farmers’ judgments on economic, social and environmental aspects of appropriate technology were used as proxy variables. in cfa, it uses binary data for mentioned aspects of appropriate technology in mentioned ways [5]. financial restrictions of farmers, financial support from the government and credit accessibility from banks, farmer’s association with different institutions (i.e., agri-entrepreneurs, agricultural universities, agricultural extension offices, agricultural cooperative societies, agri industries), skill and technical support from technology developers’ industries, and farmer’s cas were used as institutional support related variables in cfa. agricultural extension offices and developmental institutions provide training and technical support to the farmers to increase their understanding of various climate adaptation strategies and new technologies in the agricultural sector [5,6,12,63,75]. 3. main results 3.1 statistical summary of the variables table 2 shows the statistical properties (i.e., minimum, maximum, mean, standard deviation and skewness) of climatic and non-climatic factors. the values of standard deviation (sd) of most variables (except ageres, annincfam, fiph, ficcph, faph, cotepeha, edulevres, tagla, irrare, ualph, famsizres, cdi and nlf) were appeared less than 1. thus, these factors have an insignificant diversity in the sample. the statistical value of skewness describes the 44 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 normality of the respective factor. the skewness values of most factors (excluding cvaapre, cvaarf, genres, nlf, ficcph, faph, socviatec and fiph) appeared between –1 to + 1. thus, these factors were found in normal form. moreover, cronbach’s alpha score measures the internal viability of individual variable. the cronbach’s alpha (α) score of a variable also measures its internal viability for further consideration in cfa [57]. cronbach’s α score for all factors was found more than 0.70. hence, the estimates infer that undertaken variables have internal consistency to apply cfa. 3.2 results based on cfa the eigenvalues, proportion share and cumulative contribution of all factors were estimated through simple factor analysis, principal-component factors analysis, iterated principal-factor analysis and maximum likelihood factor analysis. as principal-component factor analysis produces better results as compared to other forms of cfa. in the cfa method, the significance of a factor in the group of factors was observed based on eigenvalue, percentage variance and cumulative variance. thereupon, factor loading and the uniqueness value of a specific variable explain their aggregate variation in the group of variables. this study used five categories of variables to examine latent and construct variables. the cfa results for climate change, social-economic, agricultural input, technological development and appropriate technology, table 2. descriptive statistics of factors. variables min max mean sd skewness cronbach’s α score cvaaea 0.081 0.221 0.145 0.051 0.351 0.7614 cvaamaxtem 0.011 0.012 0.012 0.002 0.592 0.7608 cvaamintem 0.021 0.021 0.023 0.003 –0.043 0.7643 cvaapre 0.241 0.391 0.291 0.041 1.124 0.7630 cvaarf 0.340 0.481 0.382 0.043 1.990 0.7803 genres 0.001 1.002 0.981 0.142 –6.712 0.7643 ageres 22.001 65.002 39.982 10.644 0.331 0.7524 famsizres 2.00 12.001 5.831 1.831 0.801 0.7515 typfamres 0.00 1.001 0.631 0.48 –0.55 0.7407 edulevres 7.00 17.00 12.59 3.09 –0.11 0.7338 maioccres 0.00 1.00 0.65 0.48 –0.65 0.7575 annincfam 140000 912000 531692 159320 –0.021 0.7535 nlf 5.00 34.00 12.40 4.17 1.40 0.7483 fiph 10821 23420 12053 1757 3.68 0.7668 tagla 1.00 25.00 9.27 5.57 0.67 0.7507 irrare 0.50 20.00 6.16 4.12 0.88 0.7527 nonirrare 0.00 10.00 3.15 2.00 0.79 0.7529 cdi 2.00 8.00 6.00 1.43 –0.55 0.7649 ualph 40.00 78.00 54.24 6.37 0.39 0.7693 ficcph 7214.17 9816.00 7865.46 597.24 1.48 0.7707 faph 102.00 435.00 167.38 50.58 2.59 0.7623 cotepeha 1765.00 2986.00 2536.39 287.22 –0.68 0.7674 ecoviatec 0.00 1.00 0.64 0.48 –0.59 0.7454 socviatec 0.00 1.00 0.89 0.31 –2.52 0.7619 envviatec 0.00 1.00 0.63 0.48 –0.55 0.7431 apptec 0.00 1.00 0.72 0.30 –0.51 0.7358 finpro 0.00 1.00 0.69 0.46 –0.83 0.7567 finsupgov 0.00 1.00 0.44 0.50 0.25 0.7640 farassstahol 0.00 1.00 0.51 0.50 –0.05 0.7644 skitecsupfar 0.00 1.00 0.32 0.47 0.77 0.7717 adstfa 0.00 1.00 0.46 0.50 0.15 0.7351 source: author’s estimation using primary and secondary data. 45 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 and institutional support and cas-related variables are given in table 3, table 4, table 5, table 6 and table 7, respectively. the kmo values of most variables (except, a few) were observed more than 0.5 and the overall kmo value was reported more than 0.72. also, the chi2 value was found statistically significant at a 1% significance level in each category. thus, estimates infer that all factors have consistency for the application of cfa. in the category of climate change-related variables, the first 3 factors were found retained factors that contribute 87.83% variation among the five different climatic factors (table 3). the variation in an individual factor loaded onto 3 retained factors (i.e., factor1, factor2 …, factor3) and the uniqueness of each factor in farm income/hectare detect the category of latent variables. if the value of a factor loaded is less than 0.40, then the factor cannot be used in the statistical explanation [57,75]. the estimates reveal that cvaaea, cvaamaxtem, cvaamintem, cvaapre, and cvaarf have high loaded on factor1. hence, actual annual average evapotranspiration, annual average maximum temperature, annual average minimum temperature, annual average precipitation and annual actual rainfall appeared as latent variables in the category of climate change-related variables. for the social-economic related variables, cfa results infer that the first 3 factors seemed retained variables. these first 3 factors have a 60.10% variation in the 8 social-economic related variables (table 4). as per the factor loading and uniqueness, agrees, famsizres, typfamres, edulevres and nlf have highly loaded on factor1. therefore, the farmer’s age, family size, type of family, education level and number of livestock seemed latent variables in the category of social-economic variables. in the category of agricultural inputs related-variables, the first 3 factors were detected as retained factors (table 5). the first 3 factors have a 72.5% variation among the 7 variables in this category of variables. the results also suggested that gross cropped area, irrigated area, crop diversification and fertilizer application were found latent variables in the category of agricultural input-related variables. appropriate technology and its other components have highly loaded on factor1 (table 6). thus, these variables were found latent variables in the category of technological change and appropriate technology related variables. while, the cost of technology has highly loaded on factor2. cost of technology, therefore, was also found as a hidden variable for factor2. as the eigenvalue and proportion share of individual factors, the first 3 factors were reported retained factors and these variables have 65.10% variation among the 5 factors in the category of institutional support and cas-related variables (table 7). the estimates infer that government financial support, farmers’ association with different stakeholders, skilled and technical support for farmers and cas have highly loaded on factor1. hence, these variables were observed as latent variables in this category of variables. table 3. proportion of factors, factors loading and unique variances in climatic factors. eigenvalue and proportion of factors number of obs. 240 number of params 15 retained factors 3 chi2 1271.20* factor factor1 factor2 factor3 factor4 factor5 factor6 eigenvalue 2.8221 1.4432 1.0043 0.47505 0.24555 0.0099 difference 1.3789 0.4389 0.52925 0.2295 0.23569 . proportion 0.4703 0.2405 0.1674 0.0792 0.0409 0.0016 cumulative 0.4703 0.7109 0.8783 0.9574 0.9984 1 factor loadings (pattern matrix) and unique variances variable factor1 factor2 factor3 uniqueness kmo value fiph 0.0757 0.0298 0.9952 0.0030 0.3234 cvaaea 0.6750 0.6250 0.0487 0.1514 0.6960 cvaamaxtem 0.9470 –0.2733 –0.0280 0.0278 0.4087 cvaamintem 0.7376 –0.6019 0.0009 0.0937 0.3263 cvaapre 0.4589 0.7785 –0.0921 0.1750 0.2578 cvaarf 0.8422 –0.0933 –0.0476 0.2796 0.3985 source: author’s estimation using primary and secondary data. *: show that chi2 value is statistically significant at 1% significance level. 46 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 table 4. proportion of factors, factors loading and unique variances in social-economic related variables. eigenvalue and proportion of factors number of obs. 240 number of params 24 retained factors 3 chi2 708.33* factor factor1 factor2 factor3 factor4 factor5 factor6 factor7 factor8 factor9 eigenvalue 3.092 1.261 1.057 0.945 0.921 0.761 0.589 0.254 0.122 difference 1.832 0.204 0.112 0.024 0.160 0.172 0.335 0.131 . proportion 0.344 0.140 0.117 0.105 0.102 0.0845 0.065 0.028 0.014 cumulative 0.344 0.484 0.601 0.706 0.808 0.893 0.958 0.986 1.000 factor loadings (pattern matrix) and unique variances variable factor1 factor2 factor3 uniqueness kmo value fiph –0.056 0.4837 –0.270 0.6901 0.5759 genres 0.2998 0.4328 –0.203 0.6816 0.6023 ageres 0.5178 –0.185 –0.510 0.4378 0.7304 famsizres 0.7837 0.3793 0.1331 0.2242 0.6237 typfamres 0.7836 –0.155 0.0827 0.3553 0.7476 edulevres –0.823 0.2842 0.0977 0.2332 0.6942 maioccres 0.285 –0.278 0.7126 0.3336 0.7002 annincfam –0.314 0.5749 0.3421 0.4543 0.6714 nlf –0.804 –0.385 –0.155 0.1806 0.6258 source: author’s estimation using primary. *: show that chi2 value is statistically significant at 1% significance level. table 5. proportion of factors, factors loading and unique variances in in agricultural inputs related variables. number of obs. 240 number of params 21 retained factors 3 chi2 1529.94* factor factor1 factor2 factor3 factor4 factor5 factor6 factor7 factor8 eigenvalue 3.070 1.722 1.004 0.866 0.695 0.350 0.288 0.005 difference 1.348 0.718 0.138 0.170 0.346 0.061 0.284 . proportion 0.384 0.215 0.126 0.108 0.087 0.044 0.036 0.001 cumulative 0.384 0.599 0.725 0.833 0.920 0.963 0.999 1.000 factor loadings (pattern matrix) and unique variances variable factor1 factor2 factor3 uniqueness kmo value fiph –0.092 0.915 0.091 0.147 0.5051 tagla 0.966 0.101 –0.015 0.056 0.4980 irrare 0.913 0.102 –0.007 0.157 0.4669 nonirrare 0.851 0.059 –0.005 0.272 0.4284 cdi 0.427 –0.080 0.177 0.780 0.9448 ualph –0.019 –0.082 0.981 0.030 0.1017 ficcph –0.077 0.917 0.011 0.153 0.5035 faph 0.618 –0.088 –0.036 0.609 0.8100 source: author’s estimation using primary data. *: show that chi2 value is statistically significant at 1% significance level. 47 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 4. discussion on findings the results based on cfa indicate that climatic factors, social-economic variables, cas and institutional support have an important contribution to the agricultural sector. however, the roles of different categories of variables were found to differ in the cultivation. social-economic factors such as the farmer’s age, family size, type of family, education level and the number of livestock can be applied as cas in the cultivation. gross cropped area, irrigated area, crop diversification and application of fertilizer are reported as vital agricultural inputs. these variables may be worked as cas in the cultivation. the government’s financial, skilled and technical support by agricultural development agencies may be helpful for the farmer to increase their intention toward cas. thus, most social-economic and institutional support-related variables work as cas in the cultivation. evapotranspiration, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation and rainfall were reported as hidden variables in the group of climatic factors (table 3). as these variables cannot be controlled by farmers, thus, climatic factors can be considered exogenous varitable 6. proportion of factors, factors loading and unique variances in technological development and appropriate technology related variables. number of obs. 240 number of params 11 retained factors 2 chi2 4607.75* factor factor1 factor2 factor3 factor4 factor5 factor6 eigenvalue 2.451 1.159 0.996 0.918 0.477 0 difference 1.292 0.163 0.077 0.441 0.477 . proportion 0.408 0.193 0.166 0.153 0.080 0 cumulative 0.408 0.602 0.768 0.921 1.000 1 factor loadings (pattern matrix) and unique variances variable factor1 factor2 uniqueness kmo value fiph 0.1880 –0.4966 0.7180 0.8867 cotepeha –0.1853 0.4202 0.7891 0.6819 ecoviatec 0.6622 –0.4557 0.3538 0.1695 socviatec 0.4683 0.7181 0.2651 0.1013 envviatec 0.8589 0.0939 0.2535 0.2394 apptec 0.9927 0.0565 0.0114 0.3225 source: author’s estimation using primary data. *: show that chi2 value is statistically significant at 1% significance level. table 7. proportion of factors, factors loading and unique variances in institutional support and cas related variables. number of obs. 240 number of params 15 retained factors 3 chi2 101.57* factor factor1 factor2 factor3 factor4 factor5 factor6 eigenvalue 1.586 1.310 1.009 0.917 0.677 0.500 difference 0.277 0.300 0.092 0.240 0.177 . proportion 0.264 0.218 0.168 0.153 0.113 0.083 cumulative 0.264 0.483 0.651 0.804 0.917 1.000 factor loadings (pattern matrix) and unique variances variable factor1 factor2 factor3 uniqueness kmo value fiph 0.214 0.3195 0.8651 0.1037 0.4627 finpro –0.2867 0.7604 0.1311 0.3224 0.4488 finsupgov 0.7983 0.1583 –0.2062 0.2951 0.5042 farassstahol 0.4452 –0.1179 0.0245 0.7873 0.6882 skitecsupfar 0.6013 0.5667 –0.2841 0.2365 0.4713 adstfa 0.5111 –0.5186 0.3463 0.3499 0.5606 source: author’s estimation using primary data. *: show that chi2 value is statistically significant at 1% significance level. 48 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 ables in the agricultural production system. here, it can be argued that climatic factors work as crucial inputs during various phases, i.e., sowing, growing and harvesting time of a crop [1,9,16,20]. the plant growth of a crop can tolerate the impact of certain climatic factors up to a certain extent. subsequently, there is expected a non-linear and hilly-shaped relationship between land productivity and climatic factors [14]. thus, the production of most crops may decline due to high variability in climatic factors. accordingly, farm income per hectare may be declined due to changes in climatic factors. the mentioned results are consistent with previous studies like singh et al. [5]; angom et al. [14]; singh and issac [35]; singh et al. [75] have also reported the negative impact of climatic factors in the agricultural and its associated activities in gujarat. therefore, at present agricultural production activities are in a vulnerable position due to climate change. therefore, there is indispensable to apply cas to mitigate the negative impact of climate change in the agricultural sector. farmer ’s age, family size, education level, annual income and livestock seemed as latent variables in the category of the social-economic profile of farmers (table 4). hence, the estimates demonstrated that productivity and production of crops may be increased as the socialeconomic status of farmers improves. previous studies also reported significant implications of mentioned variables in farming activities [5,12,19,68,73]. age, family size and education level of farmers have a substantial role in farming activities. educated farmers have more skills to apply various cas, inputs and farm practices in the cultivation to increase yield. farm management practices and productivity are to be improved as the involvement of experienced farmers increase in the cultivation. the result of the study also found a significant role of farmers’ age in cultivation. most family members of the farming community generally engaged in agricultural production activities. hence, land productivity increases up to a certain level as the family size of farmers increases. otherwise, land productivity may be declined due to the applicability of the law of diminishing returns in the agricultural sector [1,16]. farmers can use various inputs like new seeds, fertilizer, pesticides and technology as their annual income increases. moreover, literate and experienced farmers use different techniques of cultivation to increase farm income [16]. availability of physical assets (i.e., number of livestock) also helps farmers to apply various cas. the mentioned findings are similar to existing studies like singh et al. [5]; mitra et al. [12]; basu [19]; dhanya and ramachandran [68]; singh [73]. briefly, the farmer’s family size, education level, annual income, family type and livestock seemed useful to mitigate the climate change impact on farming activities. gross cropped area, agricultural labour, irrigated area, crop diversification and fertilizer were noticed as latent variables in the group of agricultural inputs (table 6). therefore, these variables appeared as significant inputs for the agricultural sector. earlier studies like ashraf and singh [5]; kumar [9]; kumar et al. [16]; chandio et al. [22]; ashraf and singh [45]; singh [73] have also noticed a positive impact of mentioned inputs in the agricultural sector. thereafter, income from cash crops farming also showed a positive impact on farm income. income from cash crops farming is necessary to increase the economic capacity of the farmers for purchasing new technologies, new varieties of seed, irrigation resources, green fertilizers and other inputs in cultivation. hence, income from cash crop farming may be beneficial for farmers to apply a climate adaptation approach to avoid the risk of climate change in the agricultural sector. cash crop farming may be favorable to creating an agri-entrepreneurial ecosystem. farmers, therefore, should grow cash crops to get a better return and increase cas. all components of appropriate technology appeared as latent variables in the group of technological development and appropriate technology-associated variables (table 7). the estimates can be defensible that the application of agricultural technologies is helpful to increase productivity and production of crops [6,13,44,46,50]. cropping patterns and crop diversification also improve as the use of technology increases in cultivation. moreover, the application of appropriate technology helps to save water, and human resources, germination of seeds, seed fertility and increase plant growth. the use of appropriate technology may also reduce the fertilizer and pesticides, and waste materials in the cultivation. land management practices also improve as the application of technology increases in the agricultural sector. furthermore, the use of appropriate technology enhances soil quality and fertility, water and air quality, and other ecosystem services [5]. subsequently, the use of appropriate technology would increase sustainable agricultural development. the cfa results of this study proposed that appropriate technology and its dimensions have a positive impact on the farming activities. the mentioned findings are consistent with previous studies [5,45]. financial support from the government, farmer’s association with stakeholders, skill and technical support from technology developers and adaptation practices seemed as latent variables among the institutional support and cas-associated variables. the abovementioned findings are consistent with naidu et al. [48]. the government should provide subsidies on seeds, fertilizer, pesticides, electric engines and irrigation sprinkler machines to the 49 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 farmers. the government also announced the minimum support price (msp) of food-grain and cash crops before their sowing time. msp will motivate the farmers to grow a crop that provides them with better benefits. moreover, credit accessibility for farmers would also increase their purchasing power to buy different inputs (i.e., seed, fertilizer, pesticides, etc.) during the sowing time of crops. appropriate credit accessibility for the farming community would also enhance the production and productivity of crops. kumar et al. [16] also found that credit accessibility was a vital driver to increasing agricultural productivity in indian states. agricultural development agencies, agricultural cooperative societies, technology developers’ agencies, and research institutions and agricultural universities should provide training and organize various programs for farmers to increase their awareness of new varieties of seeds, fertilizer, technology and scientific methods of cultivation. therefore, institutional support has a positive involvement to increase farm income [5,47]. it is consistently accepted that climate change is highly responsible to reduce the farm income and productivity of food-grain and crops in india [1,8-10,15,22,23,25-29,32,36,59]. therefore, cas may be effective to mitigate the climate change impact in the indian agricultural sector. previous studies like singh et al. [5]; mitra et al. [12]; angom et al. [14]; dhanya et al. [68]; singh [73] have also observed a positive and significant role of cas in the indian agricultural sector. 5. conclusions and recommendations the prime aim of this study was to examine the implication of climatic factors, social-economic variables, agricultural inputs, technological advancement and appropriate technology and institutional support and climate adaptation strategy in the agricultural sector of gujarat using cfa. the cfa was run on 31 factors which were divided into five different categories. farm income per hectare was treated as a dependent variable in every group of variables. subsequently, this study could find latent variables in each category of a variable. these variables can be used as a cas by farmers to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change. the results based on cfa, demonstrate that the coefficient of variation in annual actual evapotranspiration, annual average maximum temperature, annual average minimum temperature, annual actual precipitation and annual actual rainfall have a significant influence on farm income per hectare. in the category of social-economic variables, the farmer’s age, family size, type of family, education level and a number of livestock have a vital contribution to increasing farm income per hectare. gross cropped area, irrigated area, crop diversification and fertilizer application seemed important agricultural inputs. farm income was also significantly linked with technological development and appropriate technology. the government financial support, farmer’s association with different stakeholders, skilled and technical support for farmers and cas were also found vital determinants to increasing farm income. the study suggests policy recommendations such as improving soil and seed quality, adopting green fertilizers, implementing appropriate farm management practices, and utilizing irrigation methods to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on agriculture. further, the study recommends that future researchers consider the factors that have minimal negative effects on the environment and ecosystem services. additionally, future studies could investigate the categorization of appropriate technologies and develop universally accepted indicators to determine which technologies are most suitable for the agricultural sector. finally, replicating this study with larger samples from different states in india could yield more robust findings. author contributions the proposal for this article was prepared by dr. ajay k. singh and shah nawaz ashraf. dr. shah nawaz ashraf collected primary data from the selected respondents through field surveys. dr. sandeep kumar sharma collected the secondary data from various sources. dr. ajay kumar singh completed the formulation of empirical models and statistical inferences. review of literature was undertaken by dr. sandeep kumar sharma and shah nawaz ashraf. the final draft of this article was written by all authors jointly. funding no funding received. acknowledgments the authors are thankful to the local farmers for giving their valuable time and support to provide the desired feedback during field survey. the authors are also thankful to the anonymous reviewers for giving their valuable time and suggestions to increase the quality of this manuscript. the authors also give their gratitude to the editorial team of the journal for providing their valuable feedback and comments to maintain the strength of this article. data availability the data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author. 50 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 conflict of interest the authors declare no conflict of interest. references [1] kumar, a., sharma, p., ambrammal, s.k., 2015. climatic effects on sugarcane productivity in india: a stochastic production function application. international journal of economics and business research. 10(2), 179-203. 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[75] singh, a.k., kumar, s., jyoti, b., 2022. association of sustainable food security with climatic and non-climatic factors in gujarat state of india: a district-wise panel data investigation. sustainable agriculture and food security. world sustainability series. springer: cham. 37 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.342 research on world agricultural economy http://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae patterns of chemical pesticide use and determinants of self-reported symptoms on farmers health: a case study in kano state for kura local government area of nigeria hussain muhammad isah1,2　morufu olalekan raimi1,3*　henry olawale sawyerr1 1. department of environmental health science, kwara state university, malete, kwara state, nigeria. 2. kano state college of health sciences and technology, kano, nigeria. 3. department of community medicine, environmental health unit, faculty of clinical sciences, niger delta university, wilberforce island, bayelsa state, nigeria. article info abstract article history received: 1 december 2020 accepted: 8 january 2021 published online: 30 march 2021 background: today modern agriculture relies heavily on the use of pesticides and an astonishing 150 million tons of fertilizers and 6 million tons of pesticides are yearly and routinely applied to fields and crops with the purpose of increasing agricultural production. as many of these pesticides have only become a problem because of the direct actions to humans. hence, instilling confidence and enriching farmers begins with recognizing the need for pesticide use modification, whether through existing or new technologies, such as efficiency, cost reduction or effective decision-making. objective: the aim of the present study was to assesses the frequency of farmer’s self-reported symptoms in kano state, nigeria. methods: a comprehensive questionnaire was established that focuses on sociodemographic characteristics, education and experience on the adverse health effects associated with the use of the pesticide, description of job practices and a list of used pesticides on the farms in the study area. of the 400 copies of the administered questionnaires, 392 copies were retrieved and found useable, which represents 98% of the administered questionnaires. results: results showed that 46.2% had been using the pesticide for 1-5 years, 48.1% had used it for 10-15, regularity of these symptoms reveals that the majority of the respondents experienced these symptoms on a regular basis (56.1% for headache, 53.8% for stomach cramps, 56.5% for muscles weakness, 56.8% for vomiting, 58.3% for dizziness, 40.7% for shortness of breath, 45.5% for blurred vision and 66.7% for eye irritation. conclusions: it is important to focus on the use of pesticides in farming practice as it speaks to the emphasis it places on farmers regarding their income, health and wellbeing as danger lurks around the corners for kura farmers in kano state, which are already facing challenges from all manners of long-term health risk exposure. this of course should worry the state and federal government. government must increasingly play the critical role of intercessor for farmers, as this is very much in line with the sustainable development goals (sdgs) which emphasize on no poverty (goal 1), zero hunger (goal 2), ensure good health and well-being (goal 3) towards strengthening agriculture and fastrack rural development. there is therefore need to intervene by sustaining efforts to reduce food contamination through educating the farmers. keywords: sustainable development goals (sdgs) partnership and collaboration decision making health risk exposure food contamination farmers income 　 *corresponding author: morufu olalekan raimi, ola07038053786@gmail.com; olamuf001@outlook.com 38 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 1. introduction over 65% of nigerians living in rural areas have been largely neglected and denied access to modern healthcare services and other basic modern infrastructural necessities that are essential in order to maintain their health [1-4]. this is unacceptable, as a large part of the infrastructural underserved rural country's population provides the nation’s food needs, including valuable export crops. indeed, the agriculture significance to the development of nigerian economy can’t be over stressed in association to the attractive labour force. rural residents face many repeated environmental threats related to agricultural every day risks, including pesticides, solvents and metals of occupational and environmental origin [5-13]. these anomalies are always a source of stress due to the combination of inorganic trace constituents’ and the types of used pesticides in agricultural products and health practices. longitudinal pesticides exposure has been reported to cause diseases like diabetes, cancer, neurological disorders and coronary heart disease [14]. consequently, the pesticides which are very harmful to smallholder farmers institutes a typical trans-sectoral ‘wicked problem’ and concerns about the risks to human health from the risk of exposure to pesticides have increased significantly [15]. in addition, exposure to pesticides is one of the main significant threats to the health of farmers in the global south [16,17]. it is estimated that 25 million farmers are exposed to poisoning from acute pesticide yearly in the global south, making poisoning of pesticide a most significant worldwide health problem [17]. globally, the commonly used pesticides by agricultural farmers include organophosphates, causing chronic chemical poisoning through enzymes inhibiting cholinesterase. this outcomes in excess nicotinic stimulation besides muscarinic receptors, leading to symptoms of chronic pesticide poisoning such as diarrhea, weakness, headache, vomiting, ataxia, dizziness, bradycardia, dyspnea, paralysis and finally death [18]. pesticides use in agricultural farming in nigeria, particularly among kano state farmers, has improved considerably over the past 20 years, as pesticides continue to be the pillar for agricultural control of pests and disease vectors. from the season’s beginning to harvest, farmers are faced with a large amount of pesticides, which has potential to induce dna damage [19]. the resulting mixture of pesticides may be more virulent and pose a greater risk to the public than individual pesticides, and raises concern on their human health impact [20]. however, it is problematic to determine the exact configuration of these combinations. exposure to pesticides can lead to oxidative stress through the accumulation of unrestricted radicals that can accumulate in the cell, which in turn can damage nuclear acids and dna protection and improve the immune system from the body defense mechanism [14]. in this case, oxidative stress may be explained by the use of trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity with peroxidation of serum lipids through thiobarbituric acid with reactive substances and by acquiring significant occupationally exposed information on populations [21,19]. today, the study of pesticides is an important area of research on environmental pollution and several questions remain unanswered about the safety and toxicity of these products to human health and the environment. it is based on the above problem that this research sought to explore commonly used pesticides application and frequency of clinical symptoms of farmers on selected agricultural farmland in kano state, nigeria. the purpose of this research is to identify the impact of pesticides on health of farmers’ through monitoring the prevalence of self-reported symptoms in kano state. the focus on farmers is significant since from the season’s beginning to harvest, farmers are often exposed to large amounts of pesticides, which has potential to induce dna damage and pose a great risk to the exposed populations raising human health concerns. these health problems can affect health outcomes in years later. the knowledge, attitude and application of commonly used pesticides and the health indicators of many farmers in kano state are essential to their health, wellbeing and future development. thus, awareness helps to modify attitudes and behavior towards the pesticides. while significant research into understanding the health burden of chemical pesticide in kano state has not been undertaken, a literature review revealed an absence in the research. the current study aims at contributing to the extant literature in this regard. 2. materials and methods 2.1 research design the study adopted a descriptive survey research design. the descriptive survey design according to gift and obindah is a kind of research design in which the researcher collects data from a cross section of the study population in respect of variables.[1] this design was considered appropriate for the study since it solicits information from a target group. the design involves collection and analyzing data gathered. funmilayo et al., described descriptive survey design as a type of design to be employed when a study involves the use of questionnaire to seek the opinion of the respondents [2]. funmilayo et al., added that the descriptive survey type of design is the most convenient way to obtain real facts and figures in which the results of doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.342 39 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 the analyses will be used for decision making or generalization. this research design is considered suitable for this study considering the fact that this study’s primary objective centers on the assessment of commonly used pesticides application and frequency of farmers’ self-reported health symptoms from selected agricultural farmland in kano state, nigeria. the choice of a descriptive survey design was premised on its value and facility in addressing the research problem raised in the study. 2.2 the study area location figure 1. map of kano state showing the location of the study area in nigeria. adapted from isah et al.,[49] [doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4008682.] and olalekan et al., [50] [10.15406/ ahoaj.2020.04.00170] kano state is located between latitude 13°n and 11°n and longitude 8°w and 10°e (figure 1). it is approximately 840 kilometers away from the sahara desert. kano has a mean height of around 472.45m above sea level. kano state has 44 provinces: “ajingi, albasu, bagwai, bebeji, bichi, bunkure, dala, dambatta, dawakin kudu, dawakin tofa, doguwa, gabasawa, garko, garun mallam, gaya, gezawa, gwale, gwarzo, kabo, karaye, kibiya, kiru, kumbotso, kura, kunchi, madobi, makoda, minjibir, kano municipal, nassarawa, rimin gado, rogo, shanono, sumaila, takai, tarauni, tsanyawa, tudun wada, tofa, warawa and wudil”. kano state has an overall land area of 20,760sq kilometers with 9,383,682 population of inhabitants (2006 provisional result) [1]. kano temperature is always between 33°c and 15.8°c even though it occasionally reaches 10°c during harmattan season. kano has two seasons, including 4 to 5 months of rain and a prolong dry spell usually from the month of october through april. the air masses movement from south west maritime, extending out of the atlantic ocean with the impact of the rainy season, starting from may to september. the start and duration of the rainy season varied between the northern and southern parts of kano state. in the southern state of kano, riruwai last six (6) months beginning early may through late september. northern parts of kano state go from the month of june to early september [1]. average precipitation ranges from 63.3mm + 48.2mm in may and 133.4 mm + 59mm during the month of august. air masses from the tropical maritime move from southwest to north, which regulates the weather of kano state all through the rainy season. moisture from the atlantic ocean is being transported through the air masses. this humidity is absorbed once its forced to increase by means of convection or over a barrier of highland’s or a mass of air; and it came like rain. peak period happens when the sun sets across west africa amongst march through june. the dry spell begins in the month of october then lasts until april of next year. low temperatures are usually experience around this time as the sun faces southern hemisphere as the desiccating continental mass of air movement which extends through the sahara, while blowing through the northeast and carry the harmattan dust with it,implying the period of harvest [1]. 2.3 population and sample size the study population comprised farmers in kura local government area of kano state, north west, nigeria. available statistics, based on the 2006 population census, showed that kura has a total population of 143 094 people and 80% of them were farmers [24]. hence, the population of the farmers was estimated to be 114 475. the population of the study was projected in 2018 using population growth rate of 2.47% as provided by the nigeria population commission [25]. the projected population was obtained using the following equation: equation 1: ( )0 1 t tp p r= + where, pt is the projected population, po was the population in 2006 (114 475), r is the population growth rate (2.47% = 0.0247), and t is the number of years (12). ( ) 12 0 2.47 1 114475 1 100 t tp p r   = + = +    doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.342 40 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 ( )12114475 1 0.0247= + ( ) ( ) ( )12 12114475 1 0.0247 =114475 1.0247 114475 1.3402 153417= + = = hence, the projected population of 153 417 farmers in kura of kano state was estimated. sample size a sample size of 399 farmers in kura was estimated using an equation described by yamane [26]. sample size was estimated as: equation 2: ( )21 n n n e = + where, n is the sample size to be determined, e is the level of significance, and n is the population size. ( )2 , 153417, 0.05 1 n n n e n e = = = + 2 153417 1 153417 (0.05) n = + 153417 153417 153417 398.9 1 153417 (0.0025) 1 383.5425 384.5425 n = = = = + + 399 2.4 sampling techniques the study adopted a multi-stage random sampling technique in the sample selection precess. in the first stage of the sampling, random sampling was used to sample 10 villages out of the total of 26 villages in kura local government area. randomization was done through balloting. the selected villages were sarkin kura, gamadan, azore, kadani, guraza, imawa and godar ali. during the second stage of sampling, a random sample was selected to select farmers from 10 villages. to give each of the selected villages a uniform number of farmers, the sample size was divided equally across the 10 selected villages and a sample of 40 farmers were selected from each of the villages. 2.5 instruments for data collection researchers developed a questionnaire entitled “probabilistic assessment of self-reported symptoms on farmers health” that was used in data collection. it was comprised of 25 sections which focus on different demographics including sex, marital status, age, educational qualification, farming experience, farm size, land ownership status, use of pesticides, common used pesticides, effect of pesticides, health problem associated with the exposure to pesticide use and the effect of the pesticide’s application on the environment. the study also assesses the safety measures farmers use to control pesticides and the behaviors when using pesticides. 2.6 validity of instrument the research questionnaire was presented to experts for validation. copies of the questionnaire were presented to three experts, two from environmental health science, kwara state university and one expert in research and statistics (statistician). these experts were required to examine the validity of the research instrument (questionnaire) in terms of language, clarity and content in line with the purpose of the study, research questions and the hypotheses it would measure. 2.7 method of data collection to facilitate data collection, the researchers employed four research assistants. two of the research assistants helped in the administration of the data. the research assistants were properly briefed on how to administer the questionnaire. the questionnaire was administered within a four-week periods. each of the research assistant covered two communities while the researcher also covered two communities. of the 400 copies of the administered instruments, 392 copies were retrieved and found useable, representing 98% of the administered questionnaire. 2.8 methods of data analysis entered questionnaires information were rechecked for quality assurance in an excel sheet before analysis was done. all submission requests from the semi-structured and comprehensive questions were summarized from all respondents using statistics that are analyzed descriptively such as simple percentages and frequency distribution were used to analyse the demographics of the respondents and to answer the research questions. also, some vital results of the analysis were presented using pictorial representation like bar chart, cluster bar charts and other forms of pictorial representation. to enhance data analysis and computation of results, version 20.0 of the spss was used. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.342 41 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 3. results 3.1 demographics of the respondents 54.6 45.4 distribution of respondents by sex male female source: field survey, 2019 figure 2. distribution of respondents by sex figure 2 presents the demographics of the respondents. result of the distribution of the respondents based on sex reveals that 54.6% of the farmers were male and 45.4% were female. 60.7 33.9 5.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 married single divorced distribution of respondents by marita status source: field survey, 2019 figure 3. distribution of respondents by marita status result also shows that 60.7% were married, 33.9% were single and 5.4% were divorced. 17.6 20.9 26.3 19.9 15.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 16-25 years 26-35 years 36-45 years 46-55 years above 55 years distribution of respondents by age (years) source: field survey, 2019 figure 4. distribution of respondents by age (years) the distributions of the respondents based on age were as follows: 17.6% were between ages 16-25 years, 20.9% were between 26-35 years, 26.3% were between 36-45 years, 19.9% were between 46-55 years while the remaining 15.3% of the respondents were above 55 years. 20.2 31.6 36.2 6.4 4.6 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 no formal education primary senior secondary school certificate examination ordinary national diploma/national certificate examination bachelor of science/higher national diploma post graduate degree distribution of respondents by education source: field survey, 2019 figure 5. distribution of respondents by education in terms of their educational qualification, 20.2% of the farmers had no formal education, 31.6% had primary education, 36.2% of the farmers had secondary education, 6.4% were ond/nce holders, 4.6% were b.sc/hnd holders while 1.0% had postgraduate degrees. 46.2 47.7 6.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1-10 years 11-20 years above 20 years distribution of respondents by farming experience (years) source: field survey, 2019 figure 6. distribution of respondents by farming experience (years) result also shows that 46.2% of the respondents had 1-10 years of farming experience, 47.7% had 11-20 years of farming experience and 6.1% of the farmers had above 20 years of farming experience. 43.4 38.5 18.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0.5-2 2.5-4 above 4 distribution of respondents by farm size (ha) source: field survey, 2019 figure 7. distribution of respondents by farm size (ha) the distribution of the farmers based on farm size reveals that 43.4% of the respondents had 0.5-2.0 hectdoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.342 42 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 ares of land, 38.5% had 2.5-4.0 hectares of land and only 18.1% of the farmers had above 4 hectares of land. 52.3 47.7 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 inheritance lease distribution of respondents by land ownership source: field survey, 2019 figure 8. distribution of respondents by land ownership in terms of land ownership status, 52.3% of the farmers acquired their land through inheritance while 47.7% of the farmers acquired their lands through leasing. in table 1 are the world health organization (who) classifications of the pesticides presented. the pesticides most commonly used (mainly pyrethroids, phenylamide and s-metolachlor compounds) by small scale farmers in kura are categorized by who as moderately hazardous and slightly hazardous [27]. the classification of the pesticides shows that insecticides and herbicides are mostly used group, followed by fungicides (31.2%). however, 12% of the other (unidentified), pesticides were used multi-purposely. the insecticides used belonged to the chemical groups of pyrethroids, carbamates and organochlorines. the herbicides belonged to the groups of triazines, aryloxyphenoxypropionate and chloroacetanilide. table 1. products reported as used by farmers in kura type of pesticide used (trade name) active ingredient main use chemical hazardous class (who) apron plus metalaxyl (phenylamide) fungicide ii atrazine triazines herbicides iii polythrine cypermethrin (pyrethroids) insecticides ii sevin carbaryl (carbamate) insecticides ii thiodan endosulfan (organochlorine) insecticide ii fusilade fluazifop-p-βutyl (aryloxyphenoxypropionate) herbicides iii primextra s-metolachlor (chloroacetanilide) herbicides has no known who hazard classification others/unidentified note: i, extremely hazardous; ii, moderately hazardous; iii, slightly hazardous; iv, unlikely to present acute hazards under normal use condition.[27] 3.2 answering of objective questions table 2 shows that 41.4% of the respondents who complained of pesticides related problems had headache, 39.4% had stomach cramps, 46.5% complained of muscle weakness, 37.4% complained of vomiting, 36.4% complained of dizziness, 27.3% complained of shortness of breath, 11.1% complained of blurred vision while 54.5% complained of eye irritation. results of the analysis of the regularity of these symptoms reveals that the majority of the respondents experienced these symptoms on a regular basis: 56.1% for headache, 53.8% for stomach cramps, 56.5% for muscles weakness, 56.8% for vomiting, 58.3% for dizziness, 40.7% for shortness of breath, 45.5% for blurred vision and 66.7% for eye irritation (see figure 9 below). table 2. symptoms and frequency of symptoms among farmers who use pesticides and experience some effects frequency of self-reported symptoms health related self reported symptoms regularly n (%) occasionally n (%) rarely n (%) total headache 23(56.1) 13(31.7) 5(12.2) 41 (41.4) stomach cramps 21(53.8) 14(35.9) 4(10.3) 39(39.4) muscles weakness 26(56.5) 15(32.6) 5(10.9) 46(46.5) vomiting 21(56.8) 12(32.4) 4(10.8) 37(37.4) dizziness 21(58.3) 13(36.1) 2(5.6) 36(36.4) shortness of breath 11(40.7) 11(40.7) 5(18.5) 27(27.3) blurred vision 5(45.5) 2(18.2) 4(36.4) 11(11.1) eye irritation 36(66.7) 13(24.1) 5(9.3) 54(54.5) 23 21 26 21 21 11 5 36 13 14 15 12 13 11 2 13 5 4 5 4 2 5 4 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 he ad ac he st om ac h… m us cle s… vo m iti ng di zz ine ss sh or tn es s o f… bl ur re d v isi on ey e i rit at io n n o. o f r es po nd ne ts symptoms regularly occasionally rarely figure 9. cluster bar chart showing the distribution of the symptoms of pesticide use and frequency of self-reported symptoms in kura local government area (l.g.a). kano state, nigeria. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.342 43 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 4. discussion 4.1 a review of the samples in question before the statistical analysis’s outcomes were observed, the reviewed samples needed to be ascertained through the specific population the outcomes were generated. the socio-demographic characteristic, including sex, marital status, age, farm size, land ownership, levels of education and farmers farming experience concerning handling of pesticide is revealed in figure 2 to 8. there are observed significant difference between the gender distribution of respondents in their classification. the male proportion of respondents was 54.6%, somewhat larger than the number of female respondents. the majority of male farmers participants may perhaps remain the outcome of males having more farmland access than females. it might also happen because farming is labor-intensive, and women may struggle to meet the needed effort to cultivate significant crops. this view is supported through abubakar et al. who found that most male farmers 93%, while 7% were female, and bhandari and others who indicates that around 90% of farmers interviewed were males [28,29]. but is contrary to the study conducted by prince et al. who found less male farmers (21.7%) than female (78.3%), and pornpimo et al., who state that most thai agricultural workers in their study were women (60%) and that the agricultural workers characteristics in this research varied in terms of farm type [30,31]. the present study was different from the world bank report of 2007 with comparable number of female and male agricultural workers in southeast asia in 2007 [32], indicating that agricultural labour force constitutes 60 to 80 percent of females in emerging countries. the report postulated that the recent increase in the number of women agricultural farmers are due to drivers of the economic that force more men to migrate to urban centers where their services are needed in the industrial or other money economy jobs; though, it may perhaps remain that women are more willing than men to be subjects in their study. however, as demographics shift and turn out to be more technologically advanced, adolescents are realizing that farm produces due to hard work and high cost depends on uncertain income because of the dependence on crop prices and weather patterns. it is interesting to note that there has been a shift in the people involved in agriculture in kano state. gradually adolescents leave the rural areas and migrate to the urban centres to find jobs in the service or manufacturing segment. they arrived home to provide agricultural assistance in the farm and in the family garden once required. the study participants were young people between the ages of 36 and 45. meaning that the mean age reflects the positive attitude of labour in agricultural production. while, this is very useful on productivity for positive effects, as adolescent farmers are very active and tends to use novel technologies. these findings are consistent with the study done by bhandari et al. who found that 47% were between the age range of 30-49 years and 50 years old were more than 23% [29]. this bhandari study was an outcome of stratified sampling technique in order to minimise its impacts on the sizes of small cell by tilting the frequency distributions in bhandari study. similarly, this view is contrary to the study conducted by prince et al. who found that the 46-55 years (34.8%) was the largest group in the study who engage in farming activities [30]. in our study farmers’ education levels ranged from no formal education to a doctorate, the majority of farmers had an education level of ssce or its equivalent (36.2%), whereas the least had a post graduate degree (1%). this shows that the educational level of the responding farmers is strongly influencing, since most of them have at least a secondary education. education revolutionize human attitudes. it supports people to know their environment to solve numerous snags. meanwhile, these results are similar to those of bhandari et al. who estimated that around 30% of farmers are uneducated and the remaining farmers have different education levels, which include primary (23%), junior secondary (20%), secondary (19%) and college (8.7%) [29]. research shows that farmers who are educated are better positioned to accept and understand the health effects of pesticides information, likened to those with low education and that human capital studies have also shown that farmer education plays a remarkable role in allocation and skills development of farmers [33,1]. however, this view is contrary to the study conducted by islam et al. who found that the majority of respondents (51.7%) had no education knowledge [34]. they could neither read nor write and 35.0% of the participants had basic education. approximately 11.7% of the participants have completed secondary education, and only 1.7% of the participants have completed higher school [34]. similarly, prince et al. found that the 48.9% of the farmers had no formal education [30]. hanif also stated that farmers who are educated were extra careful with the use of pesticide and its environmental impact [35]. a significantly higher proportion of the participants in the present study were married (60.7%) compared to participants who were single (33.9%). this finding is similar to that of bammeke, who argued in his study, that people who take on agricultural practices were married [36]. similarly, this view is consistent with prince et al., who found that 25.0% of farmers are single while 69.6% were married and 5.4% were divorced [30]. this suggests that married respondents were more likely to experience the problem than those who responded from other groups, and therefore the example was a demonstrative model of the community doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.342 44 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 configuration our results showed that 46.2% of the farmers had between 1 and 10 years of experience while 47.7% had between 11 and 20 years’ experience and 6.1% have above 20 years of experience. this indicated that the individuals engaged in farming activities were experienced in farming. this view is contrary to the study by prince et al. in which it was noted that 72.8% of the agricultural farmers had between 1 and 10 years’ experience while 27.2% had between 11 and 20 years’ experience [30]. also, islam et al. found that the majority of respondents (60.0%) had farming experience between 16-20 years, whereas 23.3% of the respondents had farming experience of 10-15 years, 6.7% of the farmers had 21-25 years’ experience in farming, 6.7% of the farmers had obtain 25-26 years of agricultural farming knowledge, and only 3.3% of the farmers had 36-40 years’ of farming experience [34]. research by islam et al. shows that experienced farmers have a good knowledge of agriculture and they know a lot about the effects of pesticides on the environment [37]. the size of farm varied from one individual to the other and farm size is measured in ha in the area studied. the highest percentage (43.4%) of farmers had a farm size of 0.5-2 ha, while 38.5% respondents had between 2.5-4 ha, 18.1% respondents had above 4 ha. 4.2 effects of pesticides use on farmers’ health by monitoring the frequency of self-reported symptoms in kano health is one of the most significant components of the human capital for rural people in emerging countries. the study participants highlighted the potential risks of the use of pesticide and their adverse effects on environment and health. the farmers associate the potential symptoms from the exposure of pesticides linked to the acute poisoning toxicological effects. this could be as a result of majority of them were knowledgeable and several of them had experienced some of these mentioned symptoms. results of the analysis of the regularity of these symptoms reveals that the majority of the respondents experienced these symptoms on a regular basis: 56.1% for headache, 53.8% for stomach cramps, 56.5% for muscles weakness, 56.8% for vomiting, 58.3% for dizziness, 40.7% for shortness of breath, 45.5% for blurred vision and 66.7% for eye irritation. these results are not in tandem with bhandari et al. study which showed that nearly all agricultural farmers alleged having symptoms of acute health after using pesticide [29]. in the study, self-reported toxicity is the most often symptoms linked to pesticides, which include headache (73.8%), skin irritation (62.3%), eye irritation (32.8%), weakness (22.4%) and muscle pain (19.1%). his results are in agreement with previous research in nepal and vietnam [38, 39]. conversely, this result is not consistent with the research of maria et al., which shows the majority of common symptoms include cephalea (77 persons or 51.7% of 149 intoxicated patients) trailed by dizziness (48 people) and vomiting (42 people) [40]. below half of the farm employees identified cephalea (29 people) considered this sign by way of physical appearance of pesticides intoxication (self-examination intoxication). on one hand, over 50% of all people who report diarrhea and those who report dizziness, vomiting and stomach discomfort identified themselves as intoxicated. further signs identified by the farm employees in their study included blurred vision, loss of appetite, burning face, fatigue, body itching, fever, ringing in the ears and spots on the body. in addition, less than half of the 149 people who identify signs after pesticides use identified themselves highly intoxicated through these products. cases of self-reported intoxication with higher incidence among younger workers have been reported by yassin et al. and recommended that this people could express themselves through the interviews better [41]. some recent studies have shown an applicator with illness or symptoms leading to visiting the health care provider who may not be possible to remember this incident than other who ensured not to seek care [42, 43]. symptoms identified in this study include dizziness, cephalea (headache), abdominal pain and vomiting are specific pesticides exposure, such as the organophosphorus and carbamate insecticides [44, 45]. similarly, the finding are not consistent with a study conducted by gurung and kunwar [46], which showed 96% of the respondents knew skin irritation as a poisoning symptoms from pesticides use, which is not consistent with the study of lekki et al., which shows 66% of the respondents had awareness regarding skin irritation [47]. the findings of gurung and kunwar, showed that 98% and 96% of the respondents knew dizziness and headache as poisoning symptoms of pesticides use in the nervous system [46]. this is contrary to what happened in this current research, as the findings of lekei et al., is not consistent with the study which shows 49% had awareness regarding dizziness and 66% about headache [47]. 84% of respondents were aware of nausea as poisoning symptoms of pesticides use in gastro-intestinal system which is not consistent with lekei et al., which shows 34% had awareness regarding nausea [47]. the high frequency of the regularity of self-reported symptoms among farmers in kano state reveals that the majority of the respondents experienced these symptoms on a regular basis. this is less than what was stated in kenya, due to the prevalence of episodes of poisoning (61.1% of agricultural workers reported four (4) or more prior poisonings) [48]. these data most probably indicate non-severe condition because they go unidentified in the absence of an acute pesticides poisondoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.342 45 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 ing (app) surveillance program since they do not appear at health center. these app cases are closely monitored by the community on the basis of self-reporting systems. the above re-affirmed pesticides exposure to be one of the main remarkable occupational risks for farmers in the global south and to identify the risks associated with pesticides use and develop pesticides safe methods while handling pesticide. however, most farmers in the study area do not have formal education and without any form of training, so they must be exposed to training and education on the dangers of pesticides usage. this is in tandem with prince et al. who found that most of the agricultural workers were ignorant, and only an insignificant cluster are educated/ literate [30]. it was also shown that 48.9% of the agricultural workers are illiterate and lack knowledge on the appropriate use of agrochemicals, they merely use through learning from their seniors, which possibly will not always be right. additionally, controlling pesticide usage through regulatory system of proffered is well-known. studies has shown that residual pesticide are a major concern for consumers that fears frequently when they buy farmed products and community concern around pesticides in their milieu, that their effects on human health is steadily increasing. 5. summary and conclusion small holder farmers using highly toxic pesticides, particularly from the global south has become a trans-sectoral definitive ‘wicked problem’. wicked snags are an issue of effective advertising marketing methods, which are hard-hitting to accomplish due to variances amongst development partners in media outreach, response and understanding by smallholder farmers to the problem ranging from 0.2 to 2.0 hectares. for several small holder farmers, pesticides that are cheap and hazardous in the short term have been effective and profitable thereby improving agricultural production, wages for temporary contract workers, and the survival of family. this study highlights the potential high risks of pesticides exposure to human and the environment in a certain rural community in kano state. this highlights the potential to exacerbate serious public health snag that could be prevalent in the state. this result finding has remarkable policy implications in adding to sound advocacy interventions particularly for policy makers in kano state. firstly, it is important to inform farmers about the pesticide’s effects on human health and to improve farmers' education about issues of pesticide safety and pest management. the nigerian government must do its best to convince agricultural farmers to lessen the pesticides use. disseminating a more detailed information about pest management and associated information, including better education, extension services for agricultural farmers and training. subsequently, identifying alternative sources of chemical pesticide by means of lessening the farmer’s health risk, which is also of grave significant in nigeria. pesticides substitution and improving seed quality and resistance to host plants can lead to less use of pesticide without reducing the yield of crop. lastly, whereas the integrated pest management (ipm) concept has received robust support, the ipm expansion technology is, after all, a major issue for millions of households in nigeria. henceforth, government ought to do its best to facilitate the development of short-term local pesticide spraying services, although the use of pesticides may still be necessary, however, the development of ipm strategies would reduce, if not completely stamp out pesticides use in the long term. also, a crucial pillar in the considerations of pesticides is the “precautionary principle” and ought to be an important guide in policy making regarding pesticides safety. therefore, the study put forward the following ideas for recommendations: endorsement of sound farming practices that is organic and ecological in nature, holistic and suitable for local farming practices that remain undisruptive to the social, economic, gender and cultural considerations, governments should provide literary education on all level of organic agriculture and in relevant research centres, promote agriculture production patterns that have minimal environmental footprints, regulating the dependence of agricultural farmers on artificial products like the use of harmful pesticides to the milieu, advocating for community awareness on pesticide safety measures through approaches including the community, legislators, private sector, decision makers and the administrators, promoting and supporting agricultural practices that encourage biodiversity preservation and guarantees wholesome food and quality products that are good, requires that farmers should be represented throughout the boards that are associated with agriculture pesticides and provide appropriate risk criteria for evaluation and necessitate that such evaluation be carried out in nigeria and not overseas. study limitation the chief limitation of this research is the use of self-report to describe the case. even though it is frequently applied in several countries, this method is probable to overemphasize the problem triggered by exposure to pesticides. also, long-term studies will require to providing additional evidence to the causality of associations assessed in this research. another snag may be related to the incentives (financial or otherwise) for research respondents, based on past understanding of farmers’ in large foreign financial research projects. the inability to pay compensation could have prevent some farmers from partaking. in contrast, farmers with previous pesticide histodoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.342 46 research on world agricultural economy | volume 02 | issue 01 | march 2021 distributed under creative commons license 4.0 ries of poisoning are more likely to participate. however, the magnitude of the non-participation was low so was improbable to make an immense change to the findings. moreover, participants knowledge of pesticides is poor, which include the failure to identify pesticide product by its trade name or common name and classification, which could have contributed to poisoning agents misreporting or improved the quantity of poisonings as a result of unknown agents. therefore, the classification snag due to who class i and ii pesticides could be noticeably underreported. what the farmers show about the symptoms of the disease cannot be recalled if the details are forgotten. even with having some hazards awareness and exposure routes, farmers will not be able to combine all the signs with specific exposure. as a result, this may have resulted to an underestimation of the reported pesticide linked with association of poisoning symptoms and products handled. competing interests we affirm that we have no conflict of interest that may be alleged as prejudicing the impartiality of the study reported. this researcher did not receive special assistance from government, not-for-profit sectors or commercial institutions. consent all the authors announced that they had received written notice from the participants. ethical approval ethical approval for the study was sought and gotten from the institutional review board of the kwara state university. permission to carry out the research as well as written consent was also obtained from the farmers after explaining the purpose of the study to them. this was done by meeting the kano state farmers association. furthermore, the purpose of the study was again explained to participants before completing the self-administered questionnaire. participants were assured confidentiality and informed that their participation was voluntary. respondents were advised not to indicate their names on the questionnaire in order to ensure the confidentiality and anonymity of the information provided. references [1] isah h.m (2019) risk assessment associated with pesticide application on selected agricultural farmland in kano state, nigeria. msc thesis from the department of environmental health sciences, school of allied sciences, kwara state university. 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[49] isah h. m, raimi m. o, sawyerr h. o, odipe o. e, bashir b. g, suleiman h (2020) qualitative adverse health experience associated with pesticides usage among farmers from kura, kano state, nigeria. merit research journal of medicine and medical sciences (issn: 2354-323x) vol. 8(8) pp. 432447, august, 2020. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4008682. https://meritresearchjournals.org/mms/content/2020/ august/isah%20et%20al.htm. [50] olalekan rm, muhammad ih, okoronkwo ul, akopjubaro eh (2020). assessment of safety practices and farmer’s behaviors adopted when handling pesticides in rural kano state, nigeria. arts & humanities open access journal. 2020;4(5):191‒201. doi: 10.15406/ahoaj.2020.04.00170. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v2i1.342 73 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). 1. introduction according to the migrant workers monitoring survey report, released by the national bureau of statistics, the number of migrant workers was 242 million in 2010, 274 million in 2014 and 288 million in 2018. in addition, the per wage of migrant workers in 2014 and 2018, was 2864 yuan and 3721 yuan respectively. based on the statistics, the proportion of migrant workers’ earnings in family income rose from 29.9% in 2010 to 39.6% in 2014, and to 41.1 in 2019. with the increasing percentage of earnings occupied in migrant workers’ total income, the earning inequality has a greater impact on the overall income inequality. therefore, the earnings difference among migrant workers should be considered carefully. since the american economist mincer [1] put forward the income determination equation which links personal income with education level and work experience, the mincer equation has become the most commonly used doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.819 received: 20 february 2023; received in revised form: 27 march 2023; accepted: 31 march 2023; published: 7 april 2023 citation: peng, j.q., li, j., ma, l., et al., 2023. the contribution of work experience on earnings inequality of migrant workers: decompositions based on the quantile regression equation. research on world agricultural economy. 4(1), 819. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.819 *corresponding author: zhiwang lv, college of economics and management, china agricultural university, beijing, 100107, china; email: lvzhiw@cau.edu.cn research article the contribution of work experience on earnings inequality of migrant workers: decompositions based on the quantile regression equation jiaqi peng jun li ling ma zhiwang lv* college of economics and management, china agricultural university, beijing, 100107, china abstract: this paper aims at excavating the influence factors of earning inequality, due to the increasing contribution of earning inequality to income inequality in a rural region. the authors examine the contribution of work experience on earning inequality using survey data. employing the quantile regression, they estimate the mincer equation of migrant workers’ earnings and decompose earning inequality by the regression-based decomposition. it has been found that the effects of work experience had been one of the most important contributors to earnings inequality, and its contribution is close to 20%. furthermore, the authors use the same method to examine the effects on male migrant workers. the results show that work experience had a steady contribution to earning inequality. keywords: earnings inequality; work experience; quantile regression; shapley value http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.819 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.819 mailto:lvzhiw@cau.edu.cn https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1638-1445 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4700-3682 74 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 method for scholars to research earnings and rate of return on education. theoretically, the factors affecting earnings or income will also have a certain impact on income inequality, while, these two effects are not proportional. for example, the level of education has a significant impact on the absolute level of earnings, but if the difference in education level between individuals is not large, then the impact of education on income inequality is small. however, a large number of previous literature have shown that due to the difference in the quality of human capital, the nonagricultural probability and earnings may vary among migrant workers. education and work experience make up the most important part of human capital in classical theories. because everyone’s level of human capital varies, the difference in returns from education and work experience may bring about earnings inequality. in recent years, the structure of migrant workers has also changed, and the proportion of new-generation migrant workers has steadily increased. compared with the middle-aged and elderly migrant workers, the new generation is aggressive, and the level of education is often higher than the former, but they lack experience. the impact of these factors on earning inequality needs to be verified. 2. literature review how human capital affects income distribution is an essential theme in the economy, with a large amount of literature accumulated. zhang et al. [2] found the demand for skilled labor increased the contribution of schooling, while differences in human capital exacerbate income inequality. gao and yao [3] used china’s rural panel data from 1987-2002 to discuss whether human capital or physical capital is more likely to affect income inequality among rural residents. they found in different income groups, the return on human capital was significantly higher than that of physical capital. while, they focused on the income inequality of rural households, and because the sources of income among rural households are varied, it needs more detailed research concerned with the impact of individual human capital on income and income inequality. zhang [4] paid attention to the relationship between the change in human capital return and income inequality earlier, he grouped by education level and used quantile regression for comparison, which found that the return on education in high-income earners is higher than that in low-income earners. this matthew effect of the rate of return to education deteriorated the income inequality. while, patrinos et al. [5] believed education will reduce income inequality in mature economies and increase them in less developed economies. a review of the previous literature reveals that human capital is an important cause of income growth and income distribution, with education and work experience being very important indicators of human capital [6]. most of the current literature focuses on the impact of returns to education on income inequality [7], but there is still something to add about the path of the impact of work experience on wage growth and wage income inequality among migrant workers. in the long run, the returns to work experience of migrant workers in china have changed considerably and have not received a uniform conclusive conclusion [8]. based on this, exploring the impact of work experience on wage income inequality needs to be further expanded and supplemented. work experience, an important component of human capital, has been further explored by many scholars for its impact on income inequality and many attempts have been made to decompose its contribution to income inequality [9-11]. bartlett [12] decomposed the contribution of education and work experience to male wage inequality between 1939 and 1969. he found that the contribution of education was declining while the contribution of work experience was increasing, possibly due to the rise in unemployment. they found that the contribution of work experience was declining while the contribution of education and job opportunities was increasing. chen et al. [13] used china health and nutrition survey (chns) to measure labor earnings inequality from 1990 to 2005, proving that the contribution of work experience to earnings inequality will decline due to economic transformation and wage system reforms. lu [14] used chinese household income project (chip) to study changes in urban labor income inequality from 1995 to 2013, and found that the return of experience declines continuously. the above studies all use multi-period data and compare the contributions of work experience, education and other factors in different periods to examine long-term trends. however, due to data limitations, the work experience among those studies is calculated by subtracting years of education from age. if the micro-data can obtain more effective indicators that reflect the work experience, the impact of factors such as work experience on income inequality can be more accurately examined. it is worth noting that xing [15] pointed out that quantile regression is different from the ols regression based on income grouping. using the difference in the regression results of different quantiles is not rigorous enough to explain income inequality. 3. methodology and data 3.1 methodology due to the limitations of the classical mincer equation, 75 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 as in most studies, this paper uses the extended mincer equation for regression testing, with earnings as the explained variable and logarithmic processing. the formula is as follows: ∑ +++++= i iixexpexpedulny ελββββ 2 3210 among them, lny is the logarithm of the monthly salary of migrant workers. edu and exp represent the knowledge gained from education and experience gained from work respectively. the coefficients β1 and β2 represent the ratio of personal earnings increased by increasing education and work experience, which are the return rate of education and experience. considering the non liner relationship of experience on earnings, the square term of the experience is introduced into the model, and the coefficient β3 is usually a negative number. in addition, in order to analyze the impact of other factors on earning, control variables such as gender and location can be introduced. taking the estimation of the rate of return on education as an example, if the ols is used to estimate the mincer equation, which is mean regression, the obtained rate of return on education reflects how the average earning changes with the level of education under other conditions maintained. however, due to the skewed distribution of earnings, the estimation results from the conditional mean model are often biased. different from ols, quantile regression estimates how the earnings at different quantile points are determined under other conditions. since regression estimation can be estimated on any quantile, comprehensive information about the conditional distribution of the explained variable can be obtained [16]. this article also uses quantile regression to estimate the work experience rate of return. to verify the contribution of various factors to the overall earnings inequality, a regression based on shapley value inequality decomposition method is needed. the development and research application of this method is mainly attributed to shorrocks [17] and wan [18]. the basic idea of this method is the contribution of a certain variable to inequality can be seen as the change in overall inequality when the variable is eliminated. excluding this variable can be understood as assuming that it is equally distributed among all people. on the basis of the estimated results of the income equation, the java program developed by the world institute of development economics (unu-wider) can be used to perform the shapley value decomposition of the income inequality on fitted per capita income. in addition, this article also uses the method proposed by wan [18,19] to deal with the influence of residuals and calculates the contribution of residuals by calculating the difference between the total earnings inequality index and all other explanatory variables. on this basis, simple mathematical operations are used to obtain the percentage of contribution of all explanatory variables and residuals to the inequality indicator. this method has been widely used. yu [20] used this method to study the impact of foreign direct investment (fdi) on china’s agriculture and regional disparities in the national economy. zhao [21] examined the impact of relationship networks as social capital on income inequality among farmers and the author decomposed that the contribution of relationship networks to income inequality among farmers reached more than 10%. furthermore, chen [13] also used the shapley value decomposition to analyze the impact of education and work experience on income inequality. 3.2 data source the data used in this paper come from a field survey conducted by the national agricultural rural development research institute of china agricultural university in 2014 on the influx of migrant workers into provinces and cities, which include beijing, zhejiang, guangdong and etc. the content of the survey involves the work, income, life, and food consumption of rural migrant workers, forming cross-sectional data for studying the issues of migrant workers. a random sample was used in this research, which greatly avoided sample bias. in order to focus on the research on the human capital and earnings of migrant workers, the number of samples is 2187 after removing some outliers. the statistical characteristics of the variables are shown in table 1. experience is the human capital accumulated by the labor force in the process of work. unlike general research that uses the difference between age and age when completing education to express experience, we use the time the migrant worker enters the current industry. in the field questionnaire survey, the respondents are required to answer the time they are engaged in the current work and industry, and the number of years they have worked outside. through comparison, it has been found that the time spent by the labor force in the industry best reflects the improvement of their own skills, which will more effectively reflect their experience in the industry. simultaneously, the square term of experience has been introduced to examine whether the experience has diminishing returns. regarding education level, the number of years of education is not directly used in the survey, but is assigned to different levels of education, in which illiterate literate is rarely assigned to 1, primary school is assigned to 2, junior high school is assigned to 3, senior high school is assigned to 4, and so on. the statistical characteristics of the main variable are as follows: 76 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 the earnings inequality of the sample data is reported not only by gini but also theil index. because the theil index includes earnings inequality within and between groups, this article is grouped according to regions and industries, which can reflect the impact of regions and industries on overall income inequality. first, it has been calculated that the overall gini is 0.2416. in addition to removing outliers will definitely reduce the gini, it is also necessary to understand that this relatively low gini only reflects the earnings inequality of individual workers. this is not a concept with the gini of the per capita income of rural households calculated by other data. because the source of per capita household income is more diversified, the influencing factors are more complex. for example, the gini of national residents’ income in 2014 released by the national bureau of statistics is 0.469, which is not only the gap in household income per capita, but also the gap between urban and rural areas. therefore, this value is higher than the calculation result in this article. what’s more, some research institutions have given higher gini estimates, which will not be repeated here. we believe the gini of migrant workers’ earnings calculated in this paper is acceptable. then, we group by gender, industry and region, and use the theil index, including the zero-order theil index ge (0) and the first-order theil index ge (1) to measure the earning inequality. as shown in the result, whether group by gender, industry or region, the contribution of the inequality between groups to the overall inequality is far less than that of the inequality within the group. from the results in table 2, it can be seen that gender group has the largest contribution to the inequality between groups, and the calculation results of ge (0) and ge (1) both illustrate that their contribution is close to 20%, and the contribution of the industry group is slightly less than that of the former. the inequality between groups by region is within 10%, which indicates that there is no obvious regional difference in the income of migrant workers as a whole. theoretically, when the labor market is well developed and labor mobility is sufficient, regional differences in earnings or income will become smaller and smaller. therefore, the contribution of inequality between the regional group is smaller. in the following econometric analysis, we will still consider the impact of migrant workers’ gender, industry, and region on earnings in the model. 4. quantile regression estimation and inequality decomposition a large number of previous studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between work experience, education level and earnings. considering that health is also an important attribute of human capital, the labor intensity that can be endured is used as an indicator of health. from low to high, it can be divided into five levels. those who can bear the highest intensity are considered table 1. statistical characteristics of variables. region sample size monthly salary (yuan) work experience (year) education level mean standard deviation mean standard deviation mean standard deviation beijing 722 4260 1886 6.38 6.44 3.24 1.30 zhejiang 765 3927 1983 6.73 6.54 3.36 1.42 guangdong 700 3113 1443 5.71 4.58 3.55 1.17 total 2187 3776 1854 6.28 5.96 3.38 1.31 table 2. the result of ge (0) and ge (1). ge (0) ge (1) degree of inequality contribution to the overall inequality (%) degree of inequality contribution to the overall inequality (%) between within between within between within between within grouped by gender 0.01850 0.07582 19.61 80.39 0.01818 0.08284 18.00 82.01 grouped by industry 0.01679 0.07753 17.80 82.20 0.01764 0.08337 17.46 82.54 grouped by region 0.00868 0.08564 9.20 90.80 0.00844 0.09257 8.36 91.64 total 0.09432 100 0.10101 100 77 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 the healthiest, and vice versa. like liu [22], the index of marriage was added to the income determination equation. this variable has no clear economic meaning, but rather represents personal characteristics. the model also controls regional factors and industry factors. in order to reduce the number of variables, we do not use dummy variables representing regions or industries. instead, we use the logarithm of the province’s per capita gdp as a proxy variable for the region. we use the logarithm of the average income of various industries in 2014 released by the migrant workers monitoring survey report as the industry proxy variable. in order to further study the difference in the experience rate of return under different earning levels and its changing trend in the income distribution, this paper uses the quantile regression method to regress the mincer equation. we use stata and bootstrap (self-service method) technology to estimate the mincer equation 10% of low income, 25% of low income, 50% of medium income, 75% of high income and 90% of high income through 400 repeated sampling. the results are shown in table 3. the estimated results in table 3 show that the coefficient representing the rate of return of work experience is relatively stable in the first four quantiles, and it has declined at the highest quantile. the results also show that as the quantile rises, gender, education level, health status, and job position have an increasing influence on income. the coefficient of the square term of experience and age is negative, except that the square term of experience is not significant at the highest quantile, the others are significant. this article uses the per capita gdp of the region to represent the different effects of the region. the results show that, except for the highest quantile, as the quantile increases, the impact of the regional per capita gdp becomes greater, that is, higher earnings can better reflect the degree of regional development. however, the influence of industry characteristics shows the opposite trend, which is also easy to understand. because we use the average income of the industry to represent the characteristics of the industry. naturally, there are differences between high-earing people and the average income level of the industry, and the differences keep a growing tendency. more quantiles are selected for quantile regression in order to provide more information. for the two variables that this article focuses on, work experience and educatable 3. quantile regression results of mincer equation. q=10% q=25% q=50% q=75% q=90% gender 0.2130*** (0.0325) 0.2300*** (0.0186) 0.2062*** (0.0172) 0.2546*** (0.0276) 0.3435*** (0.0393) age –0.0095*** (0.0014) –0.0076*** (0.0014) –0.0074*** (0.0010) –0.0057*** (0.0014) –0.0055*** (0.0019) education level 0.0036 (0.0106) 0.0133 (0.0088) 0.0182** (0.0080) 0.0204** (0.0083) 0.0266** (0.0115) marital status 0.1238*** (0.0304) 0.0926** (0.0264) 0.0931*** (0.0236) 0.0784*** (0.0282) 0.0909*** (0.0340) work experience 0.0243*** (0.0063) 0.0264*** (0.0047) 0.0243*** (0.0039) 0.0248*** (0.0050) 0.0163** (0.0073) health status 0.0133 (0.0115) 0.0139 (0.0095) 0.0302*** (0.0094) 0.0323*** (0.0101) 0.0432*** (0.0143) job position 0.0700*** (0.0155) 0.0686*** (0.0114) 0.0823*** (0.0098) 0.1113*** (0.0165) 0.1246*** (0.0143) square term of experience –0.0006* (0.0003) –0.0005** (0.0002) –0.0004** (0.0002) –0.0004* (0.0002) 0.0001 (0.0004) other variables regional per capita gdp 0.3012*** (0.0725) 0.4739*** (0.0520) 0.5279*** (0.0442) 0.5651*** (0.0559) 0.5113*** (0.0753) industry average income 1.0185*** (0.1569) 0.9311*** (0.1308) 0.8645*** (0.1100) 0.6808*** (0.1613) 0.2936 (0.1794) constant –3.8850** (1.502) –5.0495*** (1.0884) –5.0013*** (1.1034) –3.9005*** (1.4362) –0.1395 (1.7717) pseudo r2 0.1540 0.1954 0.2241 0.2609 0.2451 note: ***, **, * indicate significance at the significant level of 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively, and the values in parentheses are self-service standard errors. 78 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 tion, the coefficient of return on each quantile is demonstrated in figure 1. intuitively, as the quantile rises, the return on experience shows a downward trend, while the return on education, on the contrary, has some fluctuations, but generally shows an upward trend. figure 1. experience and education return of each quantile. the conclusion that people with higher quantiles can obtain higher education returns is similar to that of gao and yao [3]. regarding the return rate of experience, contrary to the research of liu [22], in addition to the difference in the external environment, different ways of expressing experience may also be the reason for the difference. in order to more accurately express the contribution of various variables including professional experience to the overall earnings inequality, we use the java program developed by unu-wider to perform shapley value decomposition. this article takes the decomposition result of gini as an example to show more intuitive results. the corresponding value to each variable is the inequality degree of the contribution of the variable obtained by decomposition. after these values are added, the overall gini, and thus the degree of contribution of each variable to the overall earning inequality is obtained. see the brackets in the table, the value within. among them, the contribution of the square term of the experience item is negative, indicating that this item has the effect of reducing earnings inequality. as demonstrated in table 4, as a whole, with the increase of the quantile, various factors such as education level, health status, and job position also contribute more and more to the earnings inequality (few low quantiles have higher contributions than high quantiles). the contribution of work experience and the contribution of the square term of experience need to be considered comprehensively. because the former’s contribution to earnings inequality is positive and the latter is negative, the overall contribution of experience factors to earnings inequality is stable at around 20%. as the quantile rises, the contribution of regional varitable 4. decomposition result of earnings inequality: taking the decomposition of gini as an example. q = 10% q = 25% q = 50% q = 75% q = 90% gender 0.03390 (27.17) 0.03622 (26.28) 0.03363 (23.57) 0.04339 (27.36) 0.06392 (36.05) age 0.00825 (6.61) 0.00448 (3.25) 0.00387 (2.71) 0.00201 (1.27) 0.00137 (0.77) education level 0.00040 (0.32) 0.00163 (1.18) 0.00228 (1.60) 0.00272 (1.72) 0.00403 (2.27) marital status 0.00658 (5.28) 0.00469 (3.40) 0.00468 (3.28) 0.00399 (2.51) 0.00497 (2.81) work experience 0.02787 (22.33) 0.03615 (26.23) 0.03345 (23.45) 0.03717 (23.44) 0.02783 (15.69) health status 0.00323 (2.59) 0.00344 (2.50) 0.00810 (5.68) 0.00834 (5.26) 0.01150 (6.49) job position 0.01106 (8.86) 0.01075 (7.80) 0.01342 (9.41) 0.02130 (13.43) 0.02614 (14.74) square term of experience –0.00643 (–5.15) –0.00721 (–5.23) –0.00617 (–4.33) –0.00594 (–3.75) 0.00530 (2.99) other variables regional per capita gdp 0.01172 (9.39) 0.02253 (16.34) 0.02645 (18.54) 0.02893 (18.24) 0.02579 (14.54) industry average income 0.02821 (22.60) 0.02515 (18.25) 0.02295 (16.09) 0.01667 (10.51) 0.00649 (3.66) residual (%) 48.35 42.96 40.96 34.38 26.61 note: the degree of contribution to the inequality of estimated value is in parentheses. 79 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 ables (represented by regional per capita gdp) increases first and then decreases, showing an inverted u shape. while, the contribution of industry variables (represented by industry average income) presents a declining tendency. this decomposition result does not show that the contribution of industry factors to earnings inequality is significantly greater than that of regional factors, which seems to be inconsistent with the previous calculation of theil index. it should be noted that the decomposition here is based on the gini, and because of the residual contribution, it is impossible to make an intuitive comparison. in addition, we can also find that in the regression model, the coefficient of the square term is negative, and the contribution decomposition is also negative, that is, the square term of experience plays a role in reducing income inequality. at the same time, the shapley value is decomposed according to the estimated value of earnings, which does not include the contribution of the residual in the model, or that is the unexplained part. generally speaking, the smaller the residual, the better the decomposition. at the 0.1 quantile point, the contribution of the residual is close to half, which means that there are factors not included in the model that affect the earnings inequality of migrant workers. according to some typical studies in china, the model based on mincer equation often has a low degree of fit (pseudo r2 in quantile regression). in a general regression model, a small degree of fit is not acceptable. in this article, because the decomposition is based on the regression equation, in most cases, the degree of fit affects the explanation degree of earnings inequality. in other words, the smaller the fit, the greater the contribution of residuals to earnings inequality. 5. further analysis from all samples, it can be seen that there is a significant difference in the earnings of migrant workers, which is consistent with most of the studies. the decomposition result of the shapley value also shows that gender can explain at least 20% of the earnings inequality. at the 0.9 quantile point, gender can even contribute 36% of the earnings inequality. in all five quantiles, gender is the most important factor affecting earnings inequality. the contribution of gender to earnings inequality is large, which reflects the phenomenon that men’s earnings are significantly higher than that of women. it needs further analysis to tell whether it is discrimination in the labor market or the gender gap in human capital and other factors. according to the research of liu[22], the return rate of education and experience of men is lower than that of women. in order to further investigate the contribution of work experience and other factors to earnings inequality, we need to test the male sample and female sample respectively. in the preliminary regression, multiple variables of the model among the female sample are not significant. in this case, we do not conduct an intuitive comparative analysis of gender. however, increasing women’s earnings is an effective way to reduce earning inequality. the incompleteness in the labor market brings gender discrimination, which leads to the possibility that the work experience of female migrant workers does not have a significant impact on wage growth. therefore, in order to better clarify the path of work experience on the wage earnings inequality, this paper further explores it only for the male sample. in this part, we only select a sample of male migrant workers and use the same method to analyze. on the basis of the original quantile regression model, the gender variable is eliminated, and other variables are used for regression. because the female sample is excluded, there are 1119 remaining samples. the quantile regression results of the mincer equation about earnings are presented in table 5 as follows: the regression results show that the explanatory variable of experience is significant, and at the highest quantile, the return on experience has dropped sharply. but the education variable is no longer significant, except at the highest quantile. the square term of experience is significant in the middle three quantiles, and its coefficient is negative. compared with the regression results of all samples, the coefficients of work experience variables are higher except for the lowest quantile. although it is not a direct comparison between the male sample and the female sample, the higher return to experience in the male sample can still reflect that the return to experience men is higher than that of women, which is different from previous studies. on the one hand, it may exist a change in the economic situation, or it may be a difference in the micro indicators used to express work experience. in addition, the coefficients of regional factors are lower than all samples at all quantiles, while industry factors are just the opposite, which is also a significant feature of male earnings. it should be pointed out that the fitting degree of the male sample is obviously small, which will affect the results of shapley value decomposition. using the same method, this paper decomposes the earnings inequality of male migrant workers, as shown in table 6. 80 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 table 5. quantile regression results of mincer equation for male migrant workers’ earnings. q = 10% q = 25% q = 50% q = 75% q = 90% age –0.0079*** (0.0022) –0.0064*** (0.0016) –0.0072*** (0.0012) –0.0079*** (0.0019) –0.0037 (0.0036) education level 0.0034 (0.0140) 0.0043 (0.0128) 0.0180* (0.0101) 0.0151 (0.0129) 0.0334 (0.0208) marital status 0.1489** (0.0526) 0.0892** (0.0373) 0.1453*** (0.0291) 0.1295*** (0.0390) 0.0900 (0.0635) work experience 0.0263** (0.0112) 0.0312*** (0.0065) 0.0309*** (0.0051) 0.0300*** (0.0065) 0.0250** (0.0104) health status 0.0012 (0.0181) 0.0088 (0.0136) –0.0020 (0.0146) 0.0083 (0.0144) 0.0084 (0.0286) job position 0.0767*** (0.0268) 0.0903*** (0.0154) 0.0808*** (0.0191) 0.1359*** (0.0272) 0.1278*** (0.0309) square term of experience –0.0005 (0.0005) –0.0007*** (0.0003) –0.0006*** (0.0002) –0.0006** (0.0002) –0.0003 (0.0005) other variables regional per capita gdp 0.2262** (0.1002) 0.2951*** (0.0738) 0.3952*** (0.0667) 0.4640*** (0.0800) 0.2595** (0.1219) industry average income 1.2431*** (0.1977) 1.2773*** (0.1693) 1.3650*** (0.1568) 1.2753*** (0.1729) 0.8203*** (0.1990) constant –4.6761** (1.8957) –5.6222*** (1.4042) –7.2649*** (1.4611) –7.1911*** (1.4081) –1.1552 (2.0636) pseudo r2 0.1466 0.1537 0.1875 0.1614 0.1156 note: ***, **, * indicate significance at the significant level of 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively, and the values in parentheses are self-service standard errors. table 6. the decomposition results of male migrant workers’ earnings inequality: taking the decomposition of gini as an example. q = 10% q = 25% q = 50% q = 75% q = 90% age 0.00547 (4.80) 0.00383 (3.20) 0.00376 (2.87) 0.00541 (3.89) 0.00143 (1.17) education level 0.00029 (0.25) 0.00031 (0.26) 0.00197 (1.51) 0.00169 (1.22) 0.00604 (4.95) marital status 0.01429 (12.55) 0.00753 (6.29) 0.01333 (10.20) 0.01075 (7.73) 0.00798 (6.54) work experience 0.04391 (38.57) 0.05320 (44.46) 0.05385 (41.19) 0.05039 (36.22) 0.05314 (43.55) health status 0.00023 (0.20) 0.00192 (1.61) 0.00001 (0.01) 0.00147 (1.06) 0.00124 (1.02) job position 0.01236 (10.85) 0.01486 (12.42) 0.01286 (9.83) 0.02703 (19.42) 0.03076 (25.22) square term of experience –0.00916 (–8.05) –0.01283 (–10.73) –0.01193 (–9.13) –0.01081 (–7.77) –0.00692 (–5.67) other variables regional per capita gdp 0.00708 (6.22) 0.01017 (8.50) 0.01436 (10.98) 0.01763 (12.67) 0.00758 (6.22) industry average income 0.03938 (34.59) 0.04068 (34.00) 0.04254 (32.53) 0.03557 (25.57) 0.02076 (17.04) residual (%) 52.04 49.60 44.92 41.39 48.61 note: the degree of contribution to the inequality of estimated value is in parentheses. 81 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 regardless of the difference between the gini of the whole sample and the sample of male migrant workers, it only compares the difference in the degree of contribution of each variable to earnings inequality. the gini of the male migrant workers’ sample is decomposed into eight explanatory variables. if the contribution of gender is evenly distributed to each variable, the contribution of each variable of the male migrant worker’s sample will be higher than the same value in the whole sample. but in fact, before and after comparison, the contribution of marital status, work experience, job position, square term of experience, and industry factors in the sample of male migrant workers has increased, while the contribution of education, health status, and regional factors has declined. among them, the contribution of health status and regional factors in the five quantiles is lower than the value of the whole sample. the results show that, in terms of the contribution of work experience to earnings inequality, it is the most vital of all variables. combined with the square term of work experience, the contribution of the experience factor is lower than that of the industry factor in the lowest two quantiles. in addition, it needs to be pointed out that the analysis of this article finds that education has little influence on earnings inequality. this is obviously related to the distribution of the education of the migrant workers, and the education level of them is mostly junior high school or senior high school. while, this does not mean that education is not important to earnings. 6. conclusions and prospect based on the survey data of migrant workers, this paper studies the influence of work experience and other factors on earnings inequality of migrant workers. on the basis of quantile regression, the shapley value decomposition is used to obtain the contribution of various variables that can affect earnings to the earnings inequality, including experience. it is found that in the whole sample, gender affects the earnings inequality of migrant workers to a large extent. furthermore, using the sample of male migrant workers, we find that the impact of experience on earnings inequality is still stable and essential. in terms of policy, experience is different from education. the latter can reduce the earnings inequality caused by the uneven distribution of education by further implementing compulsory education and increasing education investment. but experience is related to age, occupation and other factors. can we adjust the policy and play a role in reducing earnings inequality? this article argues that if an individual’s experience is related to age, the difference cannot be adjusted by external factors such as policy, and there is no need to adjust. however, it is necessary to minimize the differences in the experience of employees of the same age level, which requires more employment security to be provided to employees, avoiding an unnecessary change of industries or occupations, which will effectively accumulate work experience. what’s more, this article still has regrets in the following two aspects, which need to be improved in follow-up research. first, limited to the availability of data, the ability factor is not considered in the model, which will overestimate the rate of return of experience and education to a certain extent. second, there are many factors that affect the earnings of migrant workers, which reduce the explanatory power of the classic labor theory. because traditional theories are often based on the completely free flow of labor factors and other factors, in reality, due to the restrictions of employment systems and industry barriers, the classic mincer equation cannot effectively explain the earnings decision of migrant workers. in specific empirical research, the fitting degree of the regression equation is often not high enough. in addition, it needs to be explained that the employment of migrant workers is becoming more and more diversified in reality, which makes the connotation of migrant workers richer and richer and cannot be expressed by manual workers. this also requires the further expansion of the classical income determination theory. author contributions zhiwang lv: writing—original draft preparation; jiaqi peng: writing—review and editing; ling ma: methodology; jun li: supervision. all authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. funding this research was founded by the 2115 talent development program of china agricultural university. data availability not applicable. conflict of interest the authors declare no conflict of interest. references [1] mincer, j.a., 1974. schooling, experience, and earnings. columbia university press: columbia. [2] zhang, j.s., zhao, y.h., park, a., et al., 2005. eco82 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 nomic returns to schooling in urban china, 1988 to 2001. journal of comparative economics. 33(4), 730-752. [3] gao, m.t., yao, y., 2006. which is the main reason for income inequality in rural china: physical assets or human capital? economic research journal. 4(12), 71-79. [4] zhang, j.w., 2006. human capital return and income disparity: ‘matthew effect’ and its implication. economic research journal. 4(12), 59-70. [5] patrinos, h.a., ridao-cano, c., sakellariou, c., 2006. estimating the returns to education: accounting for heterogeneity in ability. policy research working paper. 38, 1-38. [6] schultz, t.w., 1961. investment in human capital. the american economic review. 51(1), 1-17. [7] sun, z.j., 2014. estimation of educational returns based on twin data. economics (quarterly). 13(3), 1001-1020. 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[14] lu, j.l., 2018. evolution of urban wage inequality: 1995-2013. china economic quarterly. 17(4), 13051328. [15] xing, c.b., 2008. quantile regression, return to education and income distribution. statistical research. 4(5), 43-49. [16] chen, q., 2014. advanced econometrics and stata application, second edition. higher education press: beijing. [17] shorrocks, a.f., 2013. decomposition procedures for distributional analysis: a unified framework based on the shapley value. the journal of economic inequality. 11 (1), 99-126 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-011-9214-z [18] wan, g.h., 2002. regression-based inequality decomposition: pitfall and a solution procedure [internet]. wider discussion paper no.2002/101. available from: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/ files/dp2002-101.pdf [19] wan, g.h., 2004. accounting for income inequality in rural china: a regression-based approach. journal of comparative economics. 32(2), 348-363. [20] yu, k., 2009. the impact of fdi on the regional disparity in china’s agriculture and national economy. china agriculture press: beijing. [21] zhao, j.z., lu, m., 2010. the contribution of guanxi to income inequality in rural china and a cross-regional comparison: a regression-based decomposition. china economic quarterly. 9(1), 363-390. [22] liu, s.l., 2008. influences of education and experience on chinese residents. the journal of quantitative & technical economics. 4(4), 75-85. https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/dp2002-101.pdf https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/dp2002-101.pdf 47 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://journals.nasspublishing.com/index.php/rwae copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.801 received: 31 december 2022; received in revised form: 25 may 2023; accepted: 31 may 2023; published: 9 june 2023 citation: selya, n.y., dimoso, p., mgale, y.j., 2023.exploring the adoption and impact of conservation agriculture among smallholder farmers in semi-arid areas: evidence from chamwino district, tanzania. research on world agricultural economy. 4(2), 801. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.801 *corresponding author: yohana james mgale, department of rural development and regional planning, institute of rural development planning, p.o. box 138, dodoma, tanzania; email: ymgale@irdp.ac.tz research article exploring the adoption and impact of conservation agriculture among smallholder farmers in semi-arid areas: evidence from chamwino district, tanzania noel yared selya1,2 provident dimoso1 yohana james mgale1* 1. department of rural development and regional planning, institute of rural development planning, p.o. box 138, dodoma, tanzania 2. development services coordination (dsc) department, diocese of central tanganyika (dct), p.o. box 15, dodoma, tanzania abstract: the adoption of conservation agriculture (ca) technologies by smallholder farmers is expected to affect agricultural productivity and ultimately improve food security and farm incomes. however, there is still limited empirical evidence on the adoption and effects of ca technologies among smallholder farmers in the semi-arid areas of tanzania. this study was designed to assess the adoption of ca by smallholder farmers in semi-arid areas. the study used a cross-sectional survey design in four villages in chamwino districts where ca projects are promoted. a random sample of 260 households was interviewed in this study, including 134 ca adopters and 126 non-ca adopters. data were collected and analyzed using kobo and spss statistics respectively. descriptive statistics were used to examine extension approaches applied and analyze the extent of ca adoptions. a logistic regression model explored the determinants influencing farmers’ decisions to adopt ca. in addition, two independent samples t-tests were used to calculate the effect of ca adoption on crop yields and farm incomes. the results show that robust extension services led to a better quality of ca practices on ca farms. gender, access to extension services, access to agricultural inputs, participation in farmer groups, and access to credit for agriculture significantly influence the adoption of ca. ca adopters achieved better average crop yields and higher farm income per unit area than those who did not adopt ca. thus, the study recommends that the government and other development actors devote more resources to agricultural extension services and mechanization to support and increase the scaling up of ca technologies. there is also a need to establish and strengthen monitoring and evaluation systems to ensure coherence, impact and sustainability of cf programs in semi-arid areas of tanzania. keywords: adoption; impact; conservation agriculture; semi-arid areas; tanzania http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.801 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.801 mailto:ymgale@irdp.ac.tz https://orcid.org/0009-0002-3617-2261 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4946-598x http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9826-2559 48 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 1. introduction several dimensions of massive land degradation in semi-arid areas led to low agricultural productivity and decreased food security and farm income [1-3]. the problem of increased food insecurity is due to declining yields of food crops which are attributed to many causes that include: the use of conventional farming systems, low utilization of new technologies, decline in soil fertility, regular droughts, and low and erratic rains with uneven distribution [4]. conservation agriculture (ca) is largely promoted as one of the few win-win technologies affordable to farmers that potentially improve farmers’ yields while at the same time conserving the environment [5]. the ca practices appear as a potential technology against climate change [1,6]. however, despite more than a decade of ca promotion in southern africa, the rate of adopting conservation agriculture in africa (including tanzania) is insufficient compared to other parts of the world. the areas under ca are still very low compared to the rest of the world. africa has about 1.1% of the continent’s total arable land under ca, while south america has about 63% of the region’s cropland under ca [7]. based on the benefits attached to conservation agriculture, there is a need to emphasize and speed up its adoption and utilization in africa, including tanzania. tanzania has about 33,000 ha, of which 11,000 ha are under smallholder farmers, and 22,000 ha are under large commercial farms [5]. the most ca practices applied by farmers are cover crops, ox ripping and crop residues while the least used ca practices are power tiller ripping and green manure cover crops [8]. despite various initiatives to promote ca, studies have shown that there has been little adoption of ca among smallholder farmers in tanzania [5,9,10]. ca adoption remains low even in the areas where ca projects are promoted and implemented [10]. furthermore, except for a few studies conducted on ca in tanzania which include [8-10,12,13], there are still few empirical studies on the adoption of ca technologies in the study area which are characterized by recurrent droughts and a shorter rainy season resulting in low crop productivity and household food insecurity. chamwino district is one of the seven districts of the dodoma region located in a semi-arid zone. the district is characterised by regular droughts, low and erratic rains with uneven distribution, low soil fertility, low soil moisture, soil erosion, and low crop yield per unit area. the dry season is usually much longer (may to december) than the wet season, which runs from january to april, with february or march usually experiencing a drought (dct—situation assessment report, 2020). one of the features of chamwino district is land degradation due to increasing population pressure, conventional tillage-based systems, free-range grazing, competition of crop residue for various uses, and the burning of crop fields, thus combined leading to environmental degradation. these challenges and the result of climate change remain important because of their impacts on the environment, agricultural productivity, and food security [7]. on the other hand, chamwino district is one of the districts in the dodoma region where ca technologies have been introduced and promoted by development partners through communitybased projects with the collaboration of the local government authority (lga) to address the challenges of climate change and food insecurity. although ca technologies seem to have enormous potential in semi-arid areas, there is still a lack of information on the adoption of ca technologies in the study area. moreover, there is a gap between the benefits of ca and low levels of adoption. this situation requires further research to assess the adoption of ca technologies and their effects on smallholder farmers. therefore, this study examined the extension approaches used to disseminate ca knowledge, analysed the extent of adoption of ca technologies, determined the factors of farmers’ decision to adopt ca technologies, and evaluated the effect of ca technologies on farm income among smallholder farmers in the study area. this study also intended to generate knowledge and information that can contribute in design and improving intervention strategies including effective extension approaches to accelerate ca adoption. figure 1 shows the conceptual framework for modelling the factors for the adoption of ca and its benefits to the livelihood of smallholder farmers. this study hypothesizes that the adoption of ca technologies was influenced by the independent variables which were extension approaches that were used to disseminate ca knowledge, demographic factors, land tenure systems, household income and access to credit. the moderating variables for the study were agricultural policy, legal framework, farmers’ training in ca and access to extension services. moderating variables can affect the relationship between the independent and dependent variables as these factors affect the decision of farmers to adopt ca. therefore, if a farmer adopts ca technologies, it is expected to increase crop yield (kg/acre), farm income (tzs/acre), and household assets. 49 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 2. study area, data and methods 2.1 location of the study area this study was conducted at two (2) targeted wards, namely nghahelezi and mlowa located in chamwino district in dodoma region. the latitude for the chamwino district is 6.0986° s, and the longitude is 36.0431° e. the study areas comprised four villages, as shown in figure 2. ca technologies have been promoted and implemented in the wards by the diocese of central tanganyika (dct) through its department of development services coordination (dsc) in collaboration with different partners, including canadian foodgrains bank (cfgb), tearfund canada (tfca) and mennonite central committee (mcc) as international development partners. the study areas are characterised by regular droughts and low and erratic rains with uneven distribution. the land is degraded due to increasing population pressure, traditional ways of farming, livestock grazing, and fire which lead to degradation and deforestation. these challenges and climate change result in decreased water sources, crop productivity and food security [9]. 2.2 data the study employed a cross-sectional survey design. the design was also chosen due to the limited time available for data collection of a representative sample for the entire population. also, the design enabled qualitative and quantitative data collection at a single point [14]. two categories of smallholder farmers were involved in a household sample: farmers currently practising ca (ca adopters) and farmers who have never tried to practice ca before but have been exposed to ca technologies (non-ca adopters). adopters included farmers who participated directly in the ca project and farmers adopting ca without participating in the ca project as copy farmers. a random sample of 260 households was interviewed in the study areas, of which 134 were ca adopters and 126 were nonca adopters. the study used both qualitative and quantitative data from primary and secondary data sources. primary data were obtained by using structured questionnaires with both open and closed-ended questions via kobotoolbox as mobile data collection tools, field observation and a checklist of key informant interviews. secondary data figure 1. the conceptual framework. source: modified from rogers (2003). extension approaches  training  demonstration plots  farmer-to-farmer knowledge sharing  use of champion farmers  farmer groups  farmer exchange visit  contacted extension workers factors for ca adoption  sex  age  household size  farming experience  farm size  access to extension services  inputs accessibility  access to farming credit  group involvement  household income adoption of ca technology  practice of ca  non-practice of ca  crop yields  agricultural policy  legal framework  farmers training and extension services moderating variables dependent variable benefits of ca adoption  crop yields  farm income figure 1. the conceptual framework. source: modified from rogers (2003). 50 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 were collected through the documentary review, which includes existing program documents such as situational assessment reports, baseline reports, annual impact reports, evaluation reports and data collection tools used by development partners. in addition, pre-testing was conducted to control validity. changes were made to improve its usefulness in addressing the relevant questions and ensure proper coding of the kobo survey form. the period of collecting data was for two weeks in july 2022. 2.3 analytical methods descriptive statistics such as mean, standard deviation, and frequency were used to compare and realize the demographic, socio-economic and institutional characteristics of the two group respondents along with inferential statistics like t-test and chi-square tests. further, descriptive statistics were also used to examine the extension approaches that were applied to disseminate ca knowledge and the extent of ca adoptions existing between variables among smallholder farmers in the study area. in addition, inferential statistics were used to analyze the factors affecting the adoption of ca technologies among smallholder farmers in the study area. the conditional probability of receiving treatment when there are two treatment conditions (treatment vs. control) is estimated using binary logistic regression [14]. in this study, the logit model was employed to identify determinants of adopting conservation agriculture in the study area. in figure 2. the map of dodoma region shows the location of the study area. source: own generated by using arcgis (geographical information system). 51 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 estimating the logit model, the dependent variable is the adoption status of conservation agriculture which takes a value of 1 if the household is an adopter and 0 otherwise. according to gujarati [15], the logit model is specified as follows:  =  1 +   = 0 + =1   +  1 −  = 1 1 +  (1) where p is the probability of adopting rainwater harvesting. =  1 +   = 0 + =1   +  1 −  = 1 1 +  (2) where, i = 1, 2, 3 … n, β0 = intercept; βi = regression coefficient to be estimated; xi = household characteristics which affect the adoption of conservation agriculture, and μi = a disturbance term. the probability that a household is non-adopter is:  =  1 +   = 0 + =1   +  1 −  = 1 1 +  (3) independent variables: sex = sex (1 = male, 0 = female) age = age (in years) hhsize = household size represents labour availability (total number of persons in the household) farexper = farming experience (the number of years the farmer has been in farming) farsize = size of the farm (total household farm size in ha) extension = access extension services (1 = yes, 0 = no) farinput = farm input accessibility (1 = yes, 0 = no) fargroup = involvement in farmer-based group (1 = yes, 0 = no) farcredt = access to credit for farming (1 = yes, 0 = no) on the other hand, two independent samples t-tests were used to compute the effect of ca adoption on crop yields, estimated costs of production and farm income among smallholder farmers. this test is concerned with testing equality of means for two groups (comparing ca adopters and non-ca adopters). this test assumes that the two samples are from two independent populations [16]. results from the analysis were interpreted, and the gaps were addressed through key informants’ interviews (kii’s). data from kii’s and open-ended questions were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. by analyzing the meaning and contextual relationship from the content of text data and/or concepts, content analysis was used to make qualitative interpretations and conclusions [17]. 3. results and discussion 3.1 descriptive analysis of sample households’ characteristics socio-demographic and farm characteristics among smallholder farmers can influence the adoption of agricultural technology, which can also affect farm productivity and ultimately affect farm incomes in terms of observable characteristics at the individual, household, and farm levels. tables 1 and 2 for continuous and categorical variables reveal differences in socio-demographic and farm characteristics between adopters and non-adopters of ca technology. the results in table 1 show that of 260 smallholder farmers interviewed, 51.5% were females, of whom 29.2% were ca adopters, and 22.3% were non-ca adopters, whereas males were 48.5% of whom 22.3% were ca adopters and 26.2% non-ca adopter. the findings represent the true picture since women also perform most household farming activities in rural areas. according to ca project reports, females participate more than males in ca and other project activities. if the productive resource were managed jointly between males and females at the household level, it is likely to increase the adoption of ca as new technology. likewise, men’s involvement is crucial in ca adoption because men are the primary decisionmakers and have more access to and control over land and other productive resources than women due to sociocultural norms and values [17,18]. the average age of the total respondents in table 1 was 47 years, and for ca adopters, it was 49 years, slightly higher than for non-ca adopters (46 years). the low participation of young farmers in ca practices may limit the adoption and sustainability of ca technology. similarly, the results of farming experience show an average of 28 years for ca adopters and 25 years for non-ca adopters. the positive relationship implies that farmers with long farming experience are better able to evaluate the effects of new technology compared to a less experienced household in farming [11,19]. the findings in table 2 revealed that the majority of smallholder farmers (66.9%) had received primary school education, 26.2% had no formal education, 5.4% had secondary education, and very few obtained college/tertiary education (1.5%). comparatively to non-ca adopters, most ca adopters had completed primary school, and fewer did not attend formal education. this indicates that the average highest educational levels of ca adopters were greater than non-ca adopters. the household head’s 52 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 education level implies individual farmers’ ability to access information and make informed decisions to adopt new technologies [20]. household size implies the availability of labour within a family. the result revealed that the total mean was five members, representing the true picture since most smallholder farmers rely on family labour in their day-to-day farming activities. the mean difference in household size was 0.15, implying that the household size for ca adopters was slightly larger than for non-ca adopters. the fact is that both practices of ca and ca plus are labourintensive compared to conventional farming. thus, households with larger average sizes may have been more likely to adopt ca than households with smaller average sizes [19]. total annual household income was a potential measure of a household’s wealth status. all respondents’ estimated household income was tzs 1,218,233 per year through farming and off-farming activities. it was tzs 1,144,179 for ca adopters, which was tzs 154,079 less than nonca adopters. this reveals that households with lower annual incomes have a higher adoption rate of ca technology than those with higher yearly incomes. furthermore, it shows that most respondents’ income is still insufficient to cover their essential living expenditures, possibly due to low production from small farms for ca adopters and low crop productivity for non-ca adopters. farm size is vital in adopting new technology. the average farm size of the total respondent was 2.7 ha; for ca adopters was 2.8 ha, and for non-adopters was 2.5 ha. it may indicate that farmers with large land holdings are more likely to set aside extra farms for the practice of ca as new agricultural technology. on the other hand, farmers with small farm sizes may adopt ca as labour and landsaving technologies to increase agricultural production and, eventually, farm income [9,20]. furthermore, most respondents owned land (94.6%), while only a few rented land (5.4%) (see table 1). compared to rented land, owned land provides incentives for long-term investment and soil conservation benefits to improve the future productivity of the land. 3.2 extension approaches used to disseminate ca knowledge in the study area the agricultural extension approaches used to disseminate ca knowledge among smallholder farmers are presented in table 3. the result shows that 64.8% of respondents received training through ca animators/champion farmers, project extension workers and government extension workers. this is because training is used as an educational approach to impart experience to farmers about the use and benefits of ca technologies and promote the implementation of ca. therefore, farmers who received training in ca are more likely to adopt ca technologies than farmers who did not. the study reveals that 54.6% were ca animators/ champion farmers, which involves a farmer who practices ca and teaches other farmers about ca while also liaising farmers with project staff, government extension and other stakeholders. according to key informant interviews, the animator lives in the same villages as their fellow ca farmers live in the same reality, and knows the context more deeply than an external extension agent. the animator model empowers ca farmers and communities and possibly is the more effective and sustainable approach to community-wide ca adoption. working with animators is also a less expensive model than using extension workers [23]. according to kiis and other studies, ca animators/ champion farmers strengthened the effectiveness of increasing ca awareness within farmer groups. additionally, they are more important for increasing awareness than ca practice adoption. therefore, this should support other agricultural extension approaches rather than replace them [25]. other participatory approaches used were demonstration plots (51.9%), farmer groups (38.9%), and farmer-tofarmer knowledge sharing (32.4%). based on its features and benefits, the farmer-to-farmer extension approach appears more effective [25]. also, the result shows that government extension workers computed 21.3%, which implied a shortage of government extension workers, where they worked at the ward level rather than the village level, resulting in frequent table 1. the socio-demographic and farm characteristics of respondents interviewed in the study area. variables total sample (n = 260) ca adopters (n = 134) non-ca adopters (n = 126) mean difference t-value age (years) 47.7 49.4 45.8 3.6 1.52 household size 5.3 5.3 5.2 0.15 0.37 estimated annual household income (tzs) 1,218,233 1,144,179 1,298,258 (154,079) –1.06 farming experience (years) 26.3 27.6 25.0 2.64 1.03 farm size (ha) 2.68 2.84 2.52 0.32 1.01 note: *represent significance at a 10% probability level. 53 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 limited monitoring to track farmers’ progress. though government extension workers’ involvement is low, there is a need to encourage rotations where they are not there since they are key extension agents to influence the adoption of new technologies. through project extension workers (ngos), around 51.9% of farmers were reached. this indicates that project extensions have been crucial communicators of information on disseminating ca technologies, training ca animators/champion farmers, mobilizing farmer groups, and assisting individual farmers in improving their agriculture practices and practical learning skills [26]. although the challenge is the continuation after the phase of the project close, it has also been observed that project extension workers strive for results to meet the project goals. according to kiis, it was noticed that the project’s extension was well equipped than the government extension, including motorcycles, fuels, refresher training and other incentives. as a result, agricultural extension approaches need to be improved by recruiting adequate government workers, regularly training extension agents, providing adequate logistics, and integrating with other table 2. socio-demographic and farm characteristics of respondents interviewed in the study area. variables ca adopters (n = 134) non-ca adopters (n = 126) total (n = 260) c² freq % freq % freq % sex 1.48male 58 43.3 68 54.0 126 48.5 female 76 56.7 58 46.0 134 51.5 marital status 3.78 married 94 70.1 100 79.4 194 74.6 separated/divorced 18 13.4 10 7.9 28 10.8 single 2 1.5 6 4.8 8 3.1 widowed/widow 20 14.9 10 7.9 30 11.5 education level 2.21 primary 96 71.6 78 61.9 174 66.9 no formal 32 23.9 36 28.6 68 26.2 secondary 4 3.0 10 7.9 14 5.4 college/tertiary 2 1.5 2 1.6 4 1.5 the main source of income 4.39* farming 134 100.0 118 93.7 252 96.9 employed 0 0.0 4 3.2 4 1.5 own business 0 0.0 4 3.2 4 1.5 land ownership 0.22owned 128 95.5 118 93.7 246 94.6 rented 6 4.5 8 6.3 14 5.4 note: *represent significance at a 10% probability level. table 3. the extension approaches used to disseminate ca knowledge in the study area. extension approaches as a source of ca knowledge non-ca adopter (%) ca adopter (%) total (%) training 24.4 89.6 64.8 ca animators/champion farmers 41.5 62.7 54.6 project extension workers (ngos) 19.5 71.6 51.9 demonstration plots 48.8 53.7 51.9 farmer groups 36.6 40.3 38.9 farmer-to-farmer sharing of knowledge/neighbor farmer 31.7 32.8 32.4 government extension worker 17.1 23.9 21.3 farmer exchange visit 4.9 6.0 5.6 learnt through the radio 0.0 1.5 0.9 note: *results are based on multiple responses. 54 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 extension approaches. there is also a need to improve and promote a combination of extension approaches that will accommodate current changes and specific contexts to successfully adopt and scale up ca technologies. furthermore, evaluating and monitoring agriculture extension approaches is critical to determine their relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact and sustainability, providing the basis and contexts for future improvements. 3.3 factors contributing to the adoption of conservation agriculture technologies in the study area the results in table 4 for the model summary and variables in the equation indicate that about 63.5% of independent variables included in the model were good predictors for adopting ca technologies by smallholder farmers (nagelkerke r² = 0.635). wald-chi-square test indicates sex (p = 0.036), access to extension services (p = 0.001), access to farm inputs (p = 0.000), and involvement in farmer-based groups (p = 0.000) had a significant positive influence on the probability of adopting ca technologies by smallholder farmers (p < 0.05). on the other hand, access to farming credit (p = 0.044) had a significant negative influence on the probability of adopting ca technologies by smallholder farmers (p < 0.05). female farmers were associated with a significant increase in the likelihood of adopting ca four times compared to male farmers (or = 3.78, 95% ci). on the other hand, results show that female farmers’ participation in ca training and farmer groups is higher than male farmers. so, female farmers’ empowerment may positively influence ca adoption by contributing to the efficient use of household resources, better time management, and increased crop productivity. continuing to raise awareness of farmers on gender roles and priorities, whether women farmers can mobilize the support of male household members to joint decision-making, and gain access to and control over resources for the benefit of the entire household [19,20]. therefore, it is essential to focus on engaging men to change gender norms and values for greater gender equality in decision-making, access to productive resources and extension services. results in table 4 indicate farmers who accessed extension services were associated with a significant increase in the likelihood of adopting ca by ten times compared to farmers who did not access extension services (or = 9.74, 95% ci). access to extension services has also been identified as a key factor in ca adoption. according to the findings, 68.5% of respondents used extension services, with 47.7% being ca adopters and 20.8% being non-ca adopters. many authors have also found a positive and significant relationship between extension services and the adoption of new technology in agriculture [10,20,26,28]. on the other hand, results indicate that farmers with access to farm inputs were associated with a significant increase in the likelihood of adopting ca by 12 times compared to farmers who did not access farming inputs (or = 11.61, 95% ci). results reveal that 53.1% of farmers access inputs for farming activities, of whom 40.8% were ca adopters and 12.3% were non-ca adopters. most ca farmers were using inputs from their sources, such as improved seed (88.1%), farm yard manure (88.1%), gm/ cc seeds (82.1%), and pesticides (28.1%). however, it has been noticed that direct participants of the ca project have been promoted with improved seeds, both gm/cc and main crops, thus resulting in dependency for some farmers who have stopped implementing ca because they have not received seeds as previously. the results also indicate farmers involved in farmerbased groups were 16 times significantly more likely to adopt ca than farmers not involved in a farmer-based group (or = 16.06, 95% ci). according to the study’s findings, 47% of respondents participated in farmer-based groups, 37% were ca adopters, and 10% were non-ca adopters, proving the power of social capital in promoting the adoption of ca technologies. those farmer groups appeared to be well organized and frequently met, so the integration of savings activities with farmer-based groups through the vsla methodology tended to build strong groups. farmer groups enabled collective action, access to information, learning from experience (learning-based), farm inputs, linking groups with service providers, and other extension services through animators/champion farmers, project extension staff, or government extension workers [27]. the results also reveal that farmers who accessed farming credit had a significant decrease in the likelihood of adopting ca by 79% compared to farmers who did not access credit (or = 0.21, 95% ci). the negative and significant relationship with ca technology adoption may be explained by the fact that most ca adopters did not have access to farming credit; only 31.8% had access to credit, of which ca adopters consisted (23.3%), and non-ca adopters consisted (8.5%). the reason behind this is that the use of household labour, such as planting stations by hand hoe, was more likely to be adopted than the use of hiring labourers and service providers such as minimum tillage ripping; thus, many farmers practice ca on small farms size by an average of 0.4 ha (0.9 acres) or less, primarily for consumption [3,28]. results show that 46.2% of respondents participated in informal financial groups, of whom 35.4% were in vsla as part of the ca project 55 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 and 10.8% in vicoba and other methodologies, which enabled farmers to use their savings to finance farming activities. similarly, the study also revealed that the upfront costs of ca were no initial investment (9.0%), minor initial investment (53.7%), moderate initial investment (35.8%) and a large initial investment (1.5%). also, ripping services and weeding costs were low compared to conventional farming. furthermore, age and household size were positively related to ca adoption, while farm size and farming experience were negatively related to ca adoption. however, their effects were not significant (p > 0.10). larger sizes of cultivated land were associated with farmers being less likely to adopt ca technology compared to farmers with smaller land sizes. similarly, the study reveals the size of farmers’ landholding of ca adopters was 46.3% in size of 2.0 ha and below and 53.7% in size of 2.4 ha and above. in contrast, the farmers’ landholding of non-ca adopters was 52.4% between 2.0 ha and below and 47.6% between 2.4 ha and above. the findings show that the size of the cultivated landholding and other socioeconomic, farm, and institutional characteristics, may influence the adoption and uptake of ca technologies [10,22]. 3.4 extent of using adoption of ca technologies in the study area table 5 shows the extent of farmers’ adoption of ca technologies. overall, the size of ca farms increased with time, from an average of 0.2 ha (0.4 acres) to 0.4 ha (0.9 acres) per ca farmer within an average of two (2) cropping seasons. the farm under non-ca adopters was higher than ca adopters since the average size of total cultivated land was 2.7 ha (6.7 acres). on top of the increase in a farm under ca, results show that the ca principles applied consistently by all respondents as follows: minimum soil disturbance was 50.0%, soil cover was 46.2%, and the third principle was crop rotation/associations by 42.3%. the main crops grown under ca were sorghum (80.6%) and pearl millet (26.9%) as multiple responses. also, cover crops planted by a majority of ca farmers were lablab (61.2%), cowpeas (47.8%), canavalia (38.8%), mucuna (9.0%) and pigeon peas (6.0%), and most farmers use more than one type of cover crops in single ca field. figure 3 displays ca practices applied by ca adopters in the recent cropping seasons. it shows that the use of hand hoe was higher than that of ca mechanization. since they mainly depend on household labour, some farmers afford to hire labourers and use service providers who have trained oxen for ripping or ripping by two-wheel tractors [2,3]. the project seems to be working hard to promote ca mechanization by ripping with two-wheeled tractors and oxen. such mechanization helped to reduce labour and enable farmers to expand ca farm sizes. soil cover is a mandatory ca principle because of the semi-arid zone in the study area. more importantly, ensuring soil cover from the previous season’s crop and gm/ table 4. logistic regression results for determinants of ca technologies adoption. variables b se. wald df sig. exp (b) sex (1) 1.328 0.634 4.396 1 0.036** 3.775 age (years) 0.013 0.051 0.066 1 0.797 1.013 household size 0.167 0.114 2.145 1 0.143 1.182 farming experience (years) –0.006 0.047 0.017 1 0.896 0.994 farm size (ha) –0.036 0.061 0.349 1 0.554 0.965 access extension services (1) 2.276 0.700 10.570 1 0.001*** 9.737 access to farm inputs (1) 2.451 0.592 17.157 1 0.000*** 11.605 involvement in farmer-based groups (1) 2.776 0.671 17.109 1 0.000*** 16.058 access credit for farming (1) –1.563 0.775 4.067 1 0.044** 0.210 constant –5.392 1.794 9.033 1 0.003*** 0.005 note: *nagelkerke r2 = 0.635, cox & snell r2 = 0.476. *** and ** represent significance at 1% and 5% probability levels, respectively. table 5. the characteristics of ca farms in the study area. descriptive statistics minimum maximum mean size of the farm started practicing ca (ha) 0.04 0.8 0.2 current farm size under ca (ha) 0.04 2.2 0.4 experience in practicing ca (years) 1 6 2.3 56 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 cc. the percentage of farmers using gm/cc was higher than maintaining crop residues due to the challenges of free-grazing livestock and burning crop residues. some of the farmers have kept seeds of gm/cc, mainly lablab, cowpeas, canavalia and mucuna, ready for planting in the future. the third ca principle is crop associations with either intercropping or crop rotation. unlike crop rotation, intercropping was higher with 91% compared to 23.9% of crop rotation among ca adopters (figure 3). crops involved in intercropping were millet or sorghum with cowpeas, lablab, canavalia, mucuna, green grams or pigeon peas. the advantages of crop associations were those stated on crop residues or gm/cc. still, it offered extra advantages of increasing crop diversity and spreading the risk of diseases and insects, thus making farmers more resilient to climate change impacts. however, it was observed that the project has pushed for more mechanization and more soil cover with both crop residues and gm/cc. the project also mobilized cash crops like sunflower, sorghum, lablab and cowpeas, which incentivise youth and men to join ca. nevertheless, other good agronomic practices or ca plus practices applied by farmers in the study area are shown in table 6. according to nyamangara et al. [27], ca needs to be combined with other agronomical practices to address the production challenges and effects of poor rainfall distribution patterns. according to the study, figure 4 displays the major challenges for adopting ca technology mentioned by ca adopters. insects and pests also challenge gm/cc by 64.2%. however, results in table 6 revealed that 34.3% of ca adopters applied integrated pest management (ipm) approaches to control insects on gm/cc. this indicates the importance of continuing to mobilize and train farmers on the benefits of using integrated pest management (ipm) figure 3. conservation agriculture practices applied in the recent cropping seasons by ca adopters in the study area. table 6. other agronomic practices applied by respondents in the study area. other agronomic practices applied non-ca adopter (%) ca adopter (%) total (%) weed management 71.4 86.6 79.2 early land preparation 46.0 79.1 63.1 spot application of farmyard manure 28.6 88.1 59.2 precision planting 27.0 88.6 57.7 improved and right seed varieties 17.5 88.1 53.9 early planting 27.0 77.6 53.1 spot application of liming/ashes 1.6 86.6 45.4 integrated pest management (ipm) 4.8 34.3 20.0 conservation agriculture with trees 0.0 10.4 5.4 fodder establishment 0.0 6.0 3.1 soil and water conservation 0.0 6.0 3.1 compost 0.8 3.0 2.3 note: *results are based on multiple responses. 57 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 to get harvest yields of cover crops. the effect of climate change, specifically erratic rainfall, was the second challenge, with 55.2% of the respondents mentioning it. since the study areas are characterized by regular droughts and low and erratic rains with uneven distribution, ca technologies are among the climatesmart strategies that deal with the effect of climate change compared to the conventional farming system. it has also been seen that this situation affects not only the main crops (maize, millet or sorghum) but also the growth of gm/cc. another challenge pointed out was more work and time-consuming for the first time in land preparation observed by 46.3% of the respondents. since ca by hand hoes is relatively labour intensive, requiring more labour for its preparation and application of other good agronomic practices compared to conventional farming. thus, ca mechanization will likely increase the rate of ca adoption in the study area. livestock on free grazing and fire was also pointed out (46.3%) as a challenge that affects the scarcity of mulch and/or crop residues. accordingly, the context and prevailing challenges, sometimes farmers tend to apply some innovations to cope with those ca challenges and changes, such as concentrating mulch and/or crop residues closer to the stems of crops due to scarcity of mulching materials. however, to increase the adoption of ca, the respondents suggested the following; increasing the availability of extension services (62.3%), raising public awareness of the ca program (52.3%), providing farmers with improved or certified seeds (39.2%), increasing government intervention (36.9%), improving access of improved ca tools (35.4%), continuing to increase training for ca animators and champion farmers (23.1%), and put laws and regulations on crop residues management (17.7%). 3.5 benefits of ca technologies on the livelihood of smallholders farmers in the study area from the output of the independent sample t-test in table 7, it can be noted that yields, revenue (gross income) and farm income (profit) for ca adopters were significantly higher than non-ca adopters at a 1% significance level (p < 0.001). at the same time, total estimated costs for ca adopters were statistically significantly higher than nonca adopters at a 10% significance level (p < 0.1). also, results in table 7 indicate that ca technologies increased crop yield by 171% (157% for pearl millet and 187% for sorghum) compared to non-ca farmers. the costs associated with farming can affect its profitability. according to mkonda et al. [21], it has been observed that one obstacle to the adoption of new technology is the cost of adopting it. the cost of ca was slightly higher than that of nonca because most ca farmers were using good agronomic practices (ca plus), such as precision planting, improved seed varieties and spot application of farm yard manure and ashes, which increases workload. although ca does not need to use more labour and costs, soil cover suppresses weeds and ripping, as ca mechanization still costs less than ploughing tools in conventional farming. the results suggest that ca practices and ca plus, as practised by farmers in this study area, were reliable means to figure 4. the major challenges faced by ca adopters (%) on gender-based in the study area. note: *results are based on multiple responses. 58 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 increase crop yields. likewise, the study reveals that the farmer’s uptake of ca technologies was likely when the expected benefits of ca adoption exceeded the expected adoption costs [22,24]. moreover, farmers were asked to mention the benefits of ca technologies through household questionnaires. most of the respondents (98.5%) considered increasing/ improving crop yield to be a major benefit, while 73.1% indicated that ca technologies improve soil fertility. 76.1% stated that the adoption of ca technologies has improved food security, as well as 20.7%, said it plays a great role in increasing their farmlands. others include multiple harvests in a single land, access to credit and savings as well an increase in income (figure 5). in fact, a great number of respondents considered an improvement in crop yield as a major benefit of ca technologies. this is associated with the fact that most of the respondents as well as more than 75% of all tanzanians depend on agricultural production as their major source of living. the results are consistent with studies by kaweesa et al. (2018) and ngoma et al. (2021) who showed that the perceived benefit of conservation measures positively and significantly affects farmers’ decision to adopt conservation structures. table 7. crop yields, production costs and farm income among smallholder farmers in the study area. variables total sample (n = 240) ca adopters (n = 130) non-ca adopters (n = 110) mean difference t-value yields of sorghum/pearl millet (kg/acre) 370 521 192 330 10.32*** revenue (gross income) for sorghum/ pearl millet (tzs/acre) 171,573 243,773 84,933 158,840 10.91*** total estimated costs for sorghum/ pearl millet in (tzs/acre) 99,735 103,928 94,689 9,239 1.95* farm income for sorghum/pearl millet (tzs/acre) 67,307 134,011 11,525 145,536 12.78*** note: *** and * represent significance at 1% and 10% probability levels, respectively. figure 5. other benefits received by being a ca farmer (%) in the study area. note: *results are based on multiple responses. 59 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 4. conclusions and recommendations the study sought to determine the influence of socioeconomic factors on the adoption of conservation agriculture and its benefits to the livelihood of smallholder farmers in chamwino district, tanzania. the study employed both descriptive and inferential statistics to analyse the data. the findings revealed that the most extension approaches used to disseminate ca knowledge in the study area are training, ca animators/champion farmers, project extension workers (ngos), demonstration plots, farmer groups, farmer-to-farmer sharing of knowledge/neighbor farmer, government extension worker, and farmer exchange visit. further, findings revealed that robust extension services led to a higher quality of ca practices on the ca farms. the study also observed that the youth appeared not much involved in the ca activities; this is reflected in the average age of farmers among the overall respondents. the sex of the respondents, access to extension services, access to farm inputs, involvement in farmer-based groups and access to credit for farming significantly influenced smallholder farmers’ decision to adopt ca technologies more than other factors included in the model. the perceived benefits of ca principles were improved food security, soil health and moisture retention, reduced weed pressure and reduced soil preparation leading to time savings, increased crop diversity and significantly increased farmers’ income. a small percentage of ca farmers applied mechanization to expand their ca farms by using ox-drawn or two-wheel tractor rippers. households that adopted ca technologies earned better on average crop yields and farm income per unit area than conventional farming. based on the findings, the study recommends that further training and extension support for ca adoption should be targeted towards smallholder farmers in semiarid areas so as to increase awareness of the availability and usefulness of the technologies; there also a need to strengthen the contact between farmers and extension agents/ca promoters due to limited resources by using mechanisms that enhance grass root capacity building, for instance, working with farmers’ groups and communitybased organizations; farmers should be provided with more opportunities for access to friendly credit facilities to enhance ca adoption practices. further, it also brings to a close that conservation agriculture projects/programs should target areas where expected benefits are higher, in order to encourage the use of ca technologies. this includes establishing and strengthening monitoring and evaluation systems to ensure the coherence, impact and sustainability of ca programs and agricultural policies. author contributions n.y.s. designed the study and analyzed the statistical data from the study. p.d. contributed to the data analysis and participated in the literature searches. y.j.m. supervised the entire study and wrote the first draft of the manuscript. all authors have read and approved the final manuscript. funding this research received no external funding. acknowledgement this paper benefited from the generous support provided by individuals, groups, and institutions. the author is grateful to the institute of rural development planning (irdp) and the diocese of central tanganyikadevelopment services coordination (dct-dsc) for facilitating the development of the research protocol. the authors also wish to record sincere appreciation to the smallholder farmers, project staff and extension staff who participated in data collection. data availability the data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. conflict of interest the authors declare that there is no conflict of interest concerning the publication of this manuscript. references [1] farming for the future in southern africa: an introduction to conservation agriculture [internet]. food and agriculture organization of the united nations (fao); 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[15] gujarati, d.n., 2003. basic econometrics (4th ed.). mcgraw-hiii/irwin: new york. [16] kothari, c.r., 2004. research methodology: methods and techniques (2nd ed.). new age international publishers: new delhi. [17] rochon, j., gondan, m., kieser, m., 2012. to test or not to test: preliminary assessment of normality when comparing two independent samples. bmc medical research methodology. 12(1), 1-11. [18] stemler, s.e., 2015. emerging trends in the social and behavioural sciences: an interdisciplinary, searchable, and linkable resource. john wiley & sons, inc: new york. pp.1-14. [19] mwangi, m., kariuki, s., 2015. factors determining adoption of new agricultural technology by smallholder farmers in developing countries. journal of economics and sustainable development. 6(5). [20] radović-marković, m., kabir, s., jovičić, e., 2020. gender and technology adoption among farmers in bangladesh. international review. (3-4), 12-28. [21] mkonda, m.y., he, x., 2017. yields of the major food crops: implications to food security and policy in tanzania’s semi-arid agro-ecological zone. sustainability. 9(8), 1490. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/su9081490 [22] ntshangase, n.l., muroyiwa, b., sibanda, m., 2018. farmers’ perceptions and factors influencing the adoption of no-till conservation agriculture by smallscale farmers in zashuke, kwazulu-natal province. sustainability. 10(2), 555. [23] ogada, m.j., radeny, m., recha, j., 2020. adoption of climate-smart agricultural technologies in lushoto climate-smart villages in north-eastern tanzania [internet]. ccafs working paper no. 325. wageningen, the netherlands: cgiar research program on climate change, agriculture and food security (ccafs). available from: https://hdl.handle. net/10568/110120 [24] fisher, m., holden, s.t., thierfelder, c., et al., 2018. awareness and adoption of conservation agriculture in malawi: what difference can farmer-to-farmer extension make?. international journal of agricultural sustainability. 16(3), 310-325. doi: https://doi.org/14735903.2018.1472411 [25] msuya, c.p., 2019. agricultural extension approaches in tanzania. nova science publishers, inc.: new york. [26] danso-abbeam, g., ehiakpor, d.s., aidoo, r., 2018. agricultural extension and its effects on farm prohttps://doi.org/10.1079/9781789245745.0006 https://doi.org/10.1079/9781789245745.0006 http://repository.costech.or.tz/handle/123456789/90763 http://repository.costech.or.tz/handle/123456789/90763 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/110120 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/110120 61 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 ductivity and income: insight from northern ghana. agriculture & food security. 7(1), 1-10. [27] nyamangara, j., nyengerai, k., masvaya, e.n., et al., 2014. effect of conservation agriculture on maize yield in the semi-arid areas of zimbabwe. experimental agriculture. 50(2), 159-177. [28] kanyamuka, j.s., 2017. adoption of integrated soil fertility management technologies and its effect on maize productivity: a case of the legume best bets project in mkanakhoti extension planning area of kasungu district in central malawi [master’s thesis]. lilongwe: lilongwe university of agriculture and natural resources. doi: https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.265581 [29] gerald, b., 2018. a brief review of independent, dependent and one sample t-test. international journal of applied mathematics and theoretical physics. 4(2), 50-54. 62 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://ojs.nassg.org/index.php/rwae copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). 1. introduction “sorghum (sorghum bicolor (l.) moench) is a member of the poaceae family and is the fifth most significant cereal in the world, behind wheat, maize, rice, and barley”. it emerged in semi-arid tropical africa and is now one of doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.809 received: 6 february 2023; received in revised form: 19 march 2023; accepted: 27 march 2023; published: 30 march 2023 citation: tadesse, a., adicha, a., yosef, t., et al., 2023. cluster-based improved sorghum production and commercialization in nyangatom woreda of south omo zone, southern ethiopia. research on world agricultural economy. 4(1), 809. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.809 *corresponding author: awoke tadesse, crop research directorate, jinka agricultural research center, p.o.box 96, jinka, ethiopia; email: awoketadese3@gmail.com cluster-based improved sorghum production and commercialization in nyangatom woreda of south omo zone, southern ethiopia awoke tadesse1* asmera adicha2 tekle yosef1 anteneh tadesse1 1. crop research directorate, jinka agricultural research center, p.o.box 96, jinka, ethiopia 2. agricultural economics and gender research directorate, jinka agricultural research center, p.o.box 96, jinka, ethiopia abstract: cluster-based improved sorghum (melkam variety) production and commercialization was demonstrated in nyanghtom woreda of the south omo zone for one year (2021) to improve agro-pastoralists’ awareness, enhance the adaptation of full-package production technologies, and increase the economic visibility of improved sorghum cultivation. the production was started in a single kebele with a 7-hectare area of coverage. twenty-five purposively selected direct beneficiaries and twenty-five randomly selected indirect beneficiaries from a neighbor were involved in the production. direct beneficiaries cultivated sorghum on 0.28 hectares of land. at various stages of crop growth, monitoring, evaluation, and fieldwork were done by both beneficiaries and indirect beneficiaries. face-to-face interviews with sorghum producers and non-producers were undertaken. simple descriptive statistics were used to examine quantitative data, like grain yield, whereas the likert scale was used for qualitative data such as agro-pastoralists perceptions. the result revealed that 30 quintal sorghum grain yield per hectare was obtained from improved sorghum (melkam variety). the average return obtained from the sale of sorghum grain per hectare was 120,144 etb. agro-pastoralists’ perception result revealed that the “melkam” variety is a higher yielder, and early matured as compared to local. therefore, cluster-based sorghum production should be promoted for local sorghum growers in order to improve sorghum production sustainability and also seed system should take into account the provision of improved melkam variety seed. keywords: cluster-based; sorghum; grain; agro-pastoralist preference http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.809 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i1.809 mailto:awoketadese3@gmail.com https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3336-4586 63 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 the most significant cereal crops farmed in arid and semiarid regions of the world. sorghum is a crop that is best suited for arid climates and countries with unpredictable rainfall because of its tolerance to drought. it may be cultivated in a variety of ecological circumstances, including ones that are adverse for most cereals [1]. various domestic uses exist for sorghum grain such as making porridge, nefro, baby food, syrup, and regional drinks like tella and areke for humans. “moreover, its leaf and stalk are also used for animal feed and further the stalks are used for the construction of houses and fences and as fuel food”. south omo zone is one of the arid and semi-arid areas of ethiopia and sorghum is the major crop produced in the area. the area coverage of sorghum in the zone is around 15,739.02 ha, the total production is 33,686.6 tons and the average productivity of sorghum is 2.1 t·ha–1 [2]. however, the productivity achieved is a lower yield that can be obtained under ideal management conditions (4.5 t·ha–1 to 5.0 t·ha–1) [3]. this yield gap needs research to improve production and productivity in the area. in response to this jinka agricultural research center has conducted sorghum varieties and agronomic management experiments at nyangatom and dasenech woreda of the south omo zone (2019 and 2020) cropping seasons and melkam sorghum variety and its agronomic management which gave higher yield (3.3 t·ha–1 to 5.4 t·ha–1) were recommended for further production in the area. and other previous works by different scholars (tekle and zemach [4]; fuad et al. [5]; abebe et al., [6]; melese [7]) focused on performance evaluation of sorghum varieties in arid and semiarid areas to enhance productivity. however, less emphasis has been given to commercializing sorghum production as compared to other cash crops like cotton and banana. this might be due to a lack of awareness about the importance of producing sorghum at the commercial level. therefore, the present study was conducted (1) to demonstrate improved sorghum variety and create awareness of a clusterbased approach along with its improved package and (2) to determine the profitability of melkam sorghum variety production under irrigation conditions in south omo zone, ethiopia. 2. materials and methods 2.1 study area the study was carried out in nakriaman kebele, nyanghtom district of south omo zone. the district is bordered on the south by omo kuraz, on the west by the ilemi triangle (claimed by ethiopia, kenya, and sudan), on the northwest by the bench maji zone, on the north by salamago, and on the east by hamer. the omo river is flowing along the northern and western border of nyanghtom. the district is located at 5°05’-5°21’ north latitude and 35°55’-36°14’ east longitude and the altitude lies between 380 and 497 meters above sea level. the total population of the district is estimated to be 11375 of those 11187 were male and 22562 were female [8]. “the majority of economic activity that has prevailed in the study area is low-input/low-output livestock and small-scale sorghum, maize, and banana production using flood irrigation from the omo river”. cattle, sheep, donkeys, and goats are the main indigenous livestock species that have been kept in the study area. 2.2 agro pastorals selection and cluster-based approach a basic criterion to select a host kebele was land accessibility, irrigation facility, and agro-pastoral interest in growing sorghum for home consumption and seed production for future use. consequently, jinka agricultural research center established one improved sorghum-producing pastoral and agro-pastoral research and extension groups (papregs), which contained about 25 direct beneficiaries and 25 indirect beneficiaries from nakriaman kebele in collaboration with the district pastoral and agro pastoral affairs office and agriculture and natural resource management office. of the total fifty agro-pastoralists, twentyfive were selected purposively as they were experimental units on which the experiment was conducted whereas the rest twenty-five were randomly selected from a neighbor so as to share experiences with direct beneficiaries. cluster farming represents horizontal and vertical interactions between related and neighboring farmers/ agro-pastorals in agricultural production, processing, and marketing, and these interactions promote institutional innovations in support to reinforce farmers/agro-pastoralist in facing constraints; hence they achieve productivity improvement and are key for creating brand identities [9,10]. and also, cluster farming is important for smallholder farmers to use agricultural mechanization, supply inputs collectively, and create output market linkage, and has effects on some agricultural crop’s commercialization in terms of productivity [11]. 2.3 site selection and agronomic management each member of the pastoral and agro-pastoral research and extension group has allocated 0.28 ha of land, and a total of 7 ha of land per group were cleaned, plowed, disked, harrowed, and ridged 75 cm using tractors and corrected by laborers of the members. sorghum seed was sourced from jinka agricultural research center and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/kuraz https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ilemi_triangle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/sudan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/bench_maji_zone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/selamago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/hamer_(woreda) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/omo_river_(ethiopia) 64 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 sown by drilling with a seeding rate of 15 kg/ha at a 25 cm interval between rows. the use of improved input is one means of increasing agricultural production and productivity such as seeds, fertilizer, and chemicals. thus, 50 kg/ha of npsb and 50 kg/ha urea at planting and 50 kg/ha urea at knee height, 4 liters of diaznole @5%, and 1 liter of karate @5% were used for this demonstration activity. besides, agronomic management such as thinning, weeding, irrigating, pest management, harvesting time, and post-harvest handling was conducted timely by the pastoral and agro-pastoral research and extension group with intensive follow-up of researchers and experts. 2.4 training and awareness creation practically, on-farm training was given to agro-pastoralists, members of papregs, and development agents of kebeles to create awareness and improve the associated skill gap on improved sorghum production. mainly was provided on proper site selection, land preparation, sowing/drilling the seed, chemical application, fertilizer rate, irrigation frequency and time of application, and all agronomic practices. 2.5 monitoring and evaluation monitoring was conducted starting from land preparation till up to the final yield harvesting. during monitoring frequent contact with participant agro-pastoralists and kebele development agents, getting feedback, and providing technical advice were done. “a discussion was held among the stakeholders on the way forward, and some additional roles might be identified, and roles and responsibilities were shared for the next contributions along the production chain of improved sorghum production and cluster-based demonstration”. 2.6 field day and agro-pastoralist’s perception at the end of the field activity (crop maturity stage) was conducted to further promote the sorghum production technology. as field day is means of agricultural extension events to accelerate the popularization of new or improved agricultural technologies to agro-pastorals, development agents, and key stakeholders. “a total of 148 agropastoralists (44 men and 104 women), 6 development agents and 19 experts from woreda agricultural offices, 12 researchers, and 37 different stockholders from federal and regional offices participated in field day”. besides, the field day program was transmitted on the news program by debub television to disseminate information to the wider public. “a total of 250 leaflets were distributed to the participants which describe the production, agronomic practices, and overall management of improved sorghum varieties”. finally, at the end of the field day, a group discussion was held to grasp agro-pastoralists’ feedback on the strength and weaknesses of the improved sorghum variety (melkam variety). besides, the demand for the melkam sorghum variety has been created and most of the agro pastorals raised a timely supply of seeds. moreover, the perception of participant agro-pastoralists was collected to know their awareness towards the improved sorghum production. accordingly, agro-pastoralists’ interest in the production of the melkam sorghum variety was high mainly because of its uniformity, yield advantage, and early maturity characteristics. data were collected by face-to-face interviews with 25 papregs members who produced sorghum and 25 non-producers or research extension group using structured questionnaires prepared for this purpose. 2.7 method of data analysis both qualitative and quantitative data were collected from early plantation to final seed harvesting and threshing. qualitative data such as the agro-pastoral perception towards improved sorghum production and their varietal preference was collected. quantitative data such as the cost of input items used and the amount of seed produced were collected. “the collected data were analyzed using simple descriptive statistics (percentage and mean) and the likert scale. a benefit and cost ratio was used to analyze the cost of production and profit from the business enterprise”. 3. results and discussion 3.1 household and socio-economic characteristics of pastoral and agro-pastoral research extension members (papregs) the household and socioeconomic characteristics of papregs in the study area are presented in table 1. the result on household characteristics revealed that the majority (52%) of sorghum producers were female-headed, while about 48% were male-headed agro-pastoralists. “it is obvious that in agro-pastoral areas of south omo, the females are more involved in agricultural activities like planting, weeding, harvesting, and threshing than the males, aside from house routine activities such as preparing dishes, clearing house and barn, caring for children, fetching water and firewood”. “this is because, culturally, males were paid more money during marriage time than female families, and they were considered slaves, allowing females to be more involved in agricultural activities than males”. “they reported that most of the time, males 65 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 were involved in plowing land and herding cattle rather than planting, weeding, and harvesting”. “similarly, the studies reported by hidosa & ayele [12] from pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of hamer and bena-tsemay districts in south omo have shown that most of the time, females were involved in agricultural activities like planting, weeding, and planting, in addition to house routine activities, while the cattle were herded by males”. concerning education level, the mean grade the sampled papregs attained was grade two with minimum illiterate and a maximum grade of nine. this indicates that the education level of sampled papregs is low and there is a dominance of illiteracy in the area as the study is a remote area. the minimum and maximum family sizes of households were three and nine. the average mean family size of the respondents who were involved in sorghum production in the study area was 6. the minimum was 3 and the maximum was 12. the maximum family size might be due to the polygamy practice of marriage in the area. large family size in a family household contributes significantly to labor contribution during sorghum production and there is no labor shortage problem in the study area. the study by adane et al. [13] reported that the average family size of 6.19 persons per agro-pastoral household in the bena-tsemay district of the south omo zone. “regarding sorghum production experience in the area, the findings of this study indicated that the minimum year of experience for agro-pastorals who have been involved in sorghum production was two years, while the maximum was 20 years, and on average about 4 years”. according to the study’s findings, agro-pastoralists are not new to the production of sorghum, but successful production and getting profit from the production may depend on the availability of training and vigorous promotion. there could be up to five family members working together to produce sorghum, with two being the minimum and three being the norm. in order to conduct various farm management operations like irrigation, weeding, and harvesting to share among them, family participation in the production of sorghum is essential. the participation of family members in the sorghum production process is also crucial to expand employment options for unemployed household members, producing money, and reducing the number of unemployed family members, improving their means of livelihood. 3.2 benefit of papregs-based sorghum production the advantages of being cluster-based sorghum-producing papregs members are revealed by the response of beneficiaries. as indicated in figure 1, about 32% of respondents said that growing sorghum, belonging to a cooperative, or being a member of papregs allows them to earn a high income, while about 28% said that joining a cooperative is essential to exchange irrigated sorghum production practices and other experiences. whereas about 24% replied that being in a cooperative is vital to share seed with other agro-pastorals or with each other and become seed sources for further sorghum production in the area. the remaining 16% of agro-pastoralists said that cultivating sorghum in papregs gives them access to irrigation and other new technological access like chemicals and fertilizer inputs. “several empirical studies have shown that agricultural cooperatives raise farm output by encouraging the use of productivity-enhancing technological options and thereby enhancing their collective bargaining power, which reduces the market risks they may face. furthermore, they provide member farmers/pastoralists with financing options that raise productivity ceilings and are essential for the distribution of agricultural products like chemical fertilizers, seeds, and other inputs” [14,16,17]. table 1. household and socioeconomic characteristics of papregs. characteristics of respondents minimum maximum mean std. dev. age of household (year) 25 50 36.08 8.02 family size (number) 3 12 6.44 2.18 education level (grade) 0 9 2.24 3.31 experience in sorghum production(year) 2 20 4.32 3.67 member of household engaged in sorghum production (number) 2 5 3.22 1.08 frequency percent sex of household male 26 52 female 24 48 source: own survey, 2022. 32% 16%24% 28% imprtance of papregs membership high income source seed source work experience and idea sharing access to irrigation and other technologies figure 1. importance of papregs membership. 3.3 status of improved sorghum (melkam variety) production even though agro-pastorals had a long year experience 66 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 of in sorghum production, they hadn’t used improved sorghum (melkam) variety and only cultivate local sorghum variety which did not give better yield compared to improved variety. recently jinka agricultural research center introduced improved sorghum (melkam variety) to enhance sorghum productivity thereby benefiting agropastorals in the area and the initial slow expansion of production now becomes accelerated. as from key informant discussion with woreda experts improved sorghum production had spread in the area and were incorporated into development plans by local governments (agriculture and natural resource management), research center (jinka agricultural research center), ngos (llrp and fao) and other development projects. papreg members who were involved in sorghum production were asked to reveal the lack of seed and about 52 percent of respondents revealed there are occurrences of lack of seed for production but not now. on the other hand, 8 and 40 percent of respondents reported lack of seed occurs sometimes and is not recently solved. overall, it indicates lack of seed is not a problem now for the papreg members for their sorghum production but they revealed there is a yield reduction from year to year. moreover, the main source of improved sorghum seed was jinka agricultural research center (76%), ngos such as llrp, fao, and others who are working in the area (12%), and the rest 12% improved seed was supplied by woreda agriculture & natural resource management office. this implies that jinka agricultural research center is a highly contributing seed for agro-pastorals besides the demonstration of the improved sorghum variety in the area. as seen in table 2 below, all respondents have an awareness of the importance of improved sorghum and produce on their farmland. agro-pastorals consider improved sorghum production as food for household consumption, livestock feeds mainly biomass and a source of income. about 80 percent of respondents reported that the benefits of producing sorghum were highly improving whereas 20 percent reported benefits slowly improving. this implies that the majority of respondents realized the importance of sorghum production as their livelihood improvement activity and food security. in addition, the jinka agricultural research center, lowland resilient project, and woreda agriculture & natural resource management office gave different training for the papregs members and others on planting, irrigating, harvesting, threshing, and post-harvest handling. this awareness creation training helped agro-pastorals to produce sorghum and realized benefits. all papregs members reported that they were taken training from jinka agricultural research center whereas about 40, 48, and 72 percent of respondents reported that they got training from woreda agriculture & natural resource management office, pastoral field days, and llrp, fao, and other ngos respectively. this indicates that agro-pastorals in the area are getting different pieces of training from different stakeholders. 3.4 agro-pastoralists’ trait preference in the evaluation process at a different stage of the crop, both direct and indirect beneficiaries have participated. the selected traits of the sorghum variety for evaluation by agro-pastoralists were early maturity, high yielding, stalk palatability, panicle length, seed size, seed color, birds attack and plant height (table 3). as indicated in the result, all agro-pastoralists confirmed that the improved melkam variety is best in grain yield as compared to the table 2. sorghum (melkam) production status. attributes freq percent lack of seed yes it occurs often but not now 26 52 yes it occurs sometimes 4 8 no, recently solved 20 40 source of improved sorghum (melkam) jinka agricultural research center 38 76 ngos 6 12 woreda agriculture & natural resource mgmt. 6 12 awareness of improved sorghum cultivation yes 50 100 no 0 0 the benefit of cultivating sorghum highly improving 40 80 slowly improving 10 20 training on sorghum production woreda agriculture & natural resource mgmt. 10 40 pastoral field days 12 48 jinka agricultural research center 25 100 llrp, fao, and other ngos 18 72 source: own survey, 2022. 67 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 local variety which has a poor grain yield. moreover, all agro-pastoralists confirmed that an improved melkam variety is best in early maturity while the local variety is too late and takes a long time to mature. besides, all agropastoralists revealed there is no difference between improved melkam and local variety on bird attack. this is in line with the findings of hailemariam et al. [18], who used the same selection criteria to indicate farmers’ preference for sorghum varieties traits. 3.5 performance of sorghum technology’s yield and yield components the result of the study revealed that the productivity of improved sorghum (melkam variety) with its technology packages was better than the local variety with existing agro-pastoralist practice. thus, the mean grain yield of improved sorghum was 30 quintals per hectare and the mean grain yield of the local variety was 10 quintals per hectare in similar production years in the study area (table 4). this implies that improved sorghum (melkam variety) had a yield advantage of 200% over the local variety. this greater yield advantage was achieved through the proper use of recommended technology packages such as the use of the improved variety, appropriate fertilizer, chemicals, seed rates, and good management practices. this yield result was in agreement with the study by abady et al. [19], kinfe & tesfaye [20], and birhane et al. [21]. the result also conformity with eiar [22] “suggesting the positive effects of improved technology demonstrations over the existing farmer’s practice towards enhancing the yield of sorghum with its positive effect on yield attributes”. the minimum and maximum yield attained by each agro-pastorals from a plot area of 0.28 ha were 7.73 and 9.17 quintals whereas the mean yield was 8.4 quintals. 3.6 economic returns and costs of sorghum production in the study area biomass the biomass of sorghum was used for a different purpose by agro-pastorals in the study area. for instance, the fresh biomass of sorghum was used for livestock feed in the study area whereas the dried biomass of sorghum is important for house and fence construction, and is also used as firewood wood. however, it is not an easy task to value the biomass of sorghum to monetary value. besides, there is no uniform amount of biomass produced by each paprg member and different usage form makes it not easy to value. so its monetary value was not added to the economic return of sorghum production in this study. grain yield during the demonstration season, researchers made regular observations and monitoring of agro-pastoral fields which motivated them to actively monitor, weed, and irrigate their sorghum plot. all recommended agronomic management including sowing and weeding was done at the right periods of the season. as illustrated in table 4, the mean grain yield of the melkam variety was 30 quintals, which was far greater than the grain yield of table 3. preference of agro-pastorals on improved sorghum (melkam) with compare to local variety. relative weight grain yield panicle length seed color seed size plant height early maturity bird attack salk palatability varieties 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 melkam 4(100%) 3(100%) 4(80%) 3(80%) 3(96%) 4(100%) 0(80%) 3(88%) local 1(100%) 1(100%) 1(100%) 2(100%) 3(88%) 1(100%) 0(80%) 2(88%) the total number of participants = 25 (5m & 15f). rating of performance of a variety for selection criteria: score for criteria 0 up to 4, 0 = similar, 1 = poor, 2 = good, 3 = better, 4 = best; relative weight of selection criteria: 3 = very important, 2 = important and 1 = less important. the numbers in the parenthesis indicate the product of the relative weight of the selection criterion and the performance of a variety given by agro-pastoral. table 4. yield data of sorghum produced by papregs. beneficiaries land coverage (ha) average yield q/ha total yield (q/ha) 25 agro-pastorals 7 30 210 per agro-pastorals 0.28 8.4 8.4 per agro-pastorals plot of 0.28 ha min max mean 7.73 9.17 8.4 local variety per ha 1 10 10 source: own result, 2022. 68 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 the local variety (10q) mostly because of the early maturing period and its productivity. input items and costs starting from land preparation, all input items utilized on farm plots and costs were recorded by researchers on a prepared data record sheet. input items identified for analysis were the amount of seed (melkam), type and amount of fertilizer (npbs and urea), land preparation cost by tractor, fuel for tractor and water lifting from the river, chemicals (diaznole @5% and karate @5%) and other of costs related to labor. labor costs such as planting, irrigating, weeding, harvesting, and threshing were included in the analysis. however, labor costs spent on storing or other post-harvesting costs were not included in this study. consequently, cultivating sorghum from land preparation to harvesting and threshing or until getting grain yield costs incurred were seed (15 kg/ha), npsb (50 kg/ ha), urea (100 kg/ha), land preparation cost by tractor including fuel and operator perdium (8000 birr/ha), fuel for water lifting from the river (9956 birr/ha), diaznole @5% (2400 birr/ha), karate @5% (1200 birr/ha), first and second weeding (900 birr/ha) and harvesting and threshing (750 birr/ha) (table 5). this substantial amount of tractor operator and fuel costs for both tractor and water lifting from omo river reflect the increased cost of production in the area. they simply practice sorghum production when the omo river overflows and they call this system of production omo shesh. the study also revealed that the agro-pastoralist in the study area did not practice sorghum production with improved agronomic and recommended doses of fertilizers. while urea was applied in two splits— the first half during planting and the second half a month later at the height of tillering npsb was applied all at once during the sorghum sowing. where there is an abundance of land to cultivate but the problem with sorghum production is how to get water from omo river or the lifting water (fuel cost) which is currently too expensive in the country. it is without a doubt a great idea to boost yield per unit area, but yield in and of itself should only be a goal if it can be sustained by an acceptable gross margin and profit to remain competitive and continue in the farming industry. thus, variable and fixed costs were recorded by researchers on the prepared data record sheet with the collaboration of producer agro-pastorals. to that end, the mean projected variable cost per hectare was 27856 birr. the greatest costs out of this ranged from 9956 birr/ha for fuel to pull water from the river to 9000 birr/ha for tractor fuel and operator, which account for 36% and 32% of the overall cost, respectively. increased usage of better inputs is one way to provide greater agricultural output and productivity. in order to increase agricultural output, it is crucial to look into the cost structure of the inputs. hence, seeds, chemicals, laborers, and fertilizers were relatively the lowest input items. for instance, since it only makes up 2.7% of the overall cost, the seed of the enhanced sorghum variety was a low-cost input. due to the lower sorghum seed rate of 15 kg/ha, the contribution of seed to the total variable cost is incredibly low. the lowest costs were also incurred in planting, weeding, irrigating, harvesting, and threshing. this demonstrates that easy water listing technologies or solar systems need to be the focus of future research to boost sorghum output. this could be possible through the use of the effective solar system which has been practiced in other areas of ethiopia or adopted from elsewhere. gross margin or revenue a gross margin of a farm business is the difference between gross revenue which is the price multiplied by the yield obtained and the costs of variable inputs used. gross margins and profit offer agro-pastoral the encouragement to admit new technologies and improve crop production and productivity. greater gross margins and profit are the results of greater yield and better productivity, while the lesser costs per unit of products could most likely be realized through a mixture of farm input, and improved operation of inputs. any modifications to technologies or practices depend on the financial benefit realized. agropastorals who easily don’t realize the innovative technologies are frightened of the financial threat that might be faced while investing in any business environment. to determine the financial feasibility of the innovative technologies in sorghum production, melkam improved varieties along with its agronomic practices were verified and their gross margins were calculated. the amount of grain produced per hectare was one of the criteria used to calculate gross margins. all pastoral and agro-pastoral research groups confirmed that the melkam sorghum variety gave greater grain yields and greater revenues per hectare than their local variety because it is the short maturing crop and short in size that it could be easily managed from bird attacks and minimize its costs of labor. melkam sorghum variety gave a higher yield which is 3000 kg/ha. thus, the result suggests that melkam sorghum productivity in this area is a good and further expansion and availing water lifting devices to agro-pastorals are important. 69 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 return return is simply the difference between the total income value of yield at normal market prices and total costs (total variable and fixed cost). in this study, variable costs included are the price of seeds, fertilizers, herbicides real amount used and the real amount of labor, fuel used for water lifting from omo river and the fuel used for tractor and perdium cost for tractor operator during plantation costs from the whole planting season were taken into consideration. regular expenses known as “fixed costs” stay largely constant regardless of output level. in this study cost of land, and renting were only considered but it was not easy to calculate as other variable costs. however, we used the average current market land renting price per hectare for one year in a fixed term. accordingly, estimated the current average market price of land in the study area is 2000 birr/ha/year. this cost estimate is 7% of total variable costs and the estimate falls out of adequate bounds of further lessons that inveterate. that fixed cost contributes 10%-15% of variable costs in smallholder farmers who operate at a low level of performance [23,24]. this might be due to ample land resources in the area and there is no land shortage problem in the area as it is a pastoral area. the mean return, which included the fixed cost, was 120,144 eb/ha. farmers adopt new technologies and innovations, lower costs per unit of production, preserve soil fertility, and look for better marketing strategies as a result of rising farm profits [25]. benefit to cost ratio this study used benefit to cost ratio to confirm that new sorghum production technologies are appropriate and financially safe. accordingly, the system of the input-output investigation indicates the benefit to the ratio of sorghum production technology as a beginning for its appropriate valuation and choice. the mean revenue from the sale of grain seed was 150000 birr/ha and the mean production cost was 29856 birr/ha. this implies that each household that engaged in sorghum production would get a profit of 120,144 birr/ha. moreover, the benefit-to-cost ratio of sorghum production was 4.02:1, which demonstrates that each household gets a benefit from sorghum production nearly four times the cost of production. this result would encourage new agro-pastoralists to tend to start with sorghum production and area expansion to evaluate the costs and benefits of this profitable initiative. table 5. economic returns and costs of sorghum production. cost items per ha unit quantity unit cost (etb) total cost (etb) seed kg 15 50 15*50 = 750 npsb kg 50 15 50*15 = 750 urea kg 100 13.5 100*13.5 = 1350 diaznole @5% liter 4 600 4*600 = 2400 karate @5%) liter 1 1200 1*1200 = 1200 land preparation by tractor operator & fuel 1 80000 1*8000 = 8000 planting labor per day 6 50 6*50 = 300 irrigation (2 times per week) labor per week 1 50 15days/3month*1*100 = 1500 water lifting cost from the river fuel per liter 400 24.89 400*24.89 = 9956 1st weeding labor per month 10 50 10*month*50 = 500 2nd weeding labor per month 8 50 8*month*50 = 400 harvesting/threshing labor per harvest 15 50 15*50 = 750 total variable cost 27856 fixed cost land cost per ha 1 2000 2000 total cost 29856 benefits (birr/ha) grain yield quintal (mean) 30 5000 150000 total revenue 150000 gross margin 122144 profit (birr/ha) 120144 benefit-cost ratio 120144/29856 = 4.02:1 source: own survey data, 2021. 70 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 3.7 lessons learned and suggestions forward as it is true that the papregs organized in the area were rarely practicing sorghum production in the area and the selected area for sorghum production at the time was bare land. but the formations of papregs make them work together and learn from each other. this helped the papregs members to undertake all the crop management activities. the other is the use of improved technologies such as fertilizer and row planting which were not common in the area. so the papregs team spirit and the influence of group members on one another made a sense of competition between members. so, the formation of the papregs group is a main to for technology adoption in the area. and now papregs members were expanding their production as well as other agro-pastorals nearby are adopting the technology (figure 2). sorghum production in agro-pastoral areas has a dual purpose as feed for livestock and human consumption for food with high productivity. so, the production should be scaled out widely at every time without a season limit since there are opportunities for fertile land in every flowing omo river in the area and also a provision of a skill gap training in practicing the technology. a b c figure 2. cluster-based improved (melkam variety) sorghum production at nakriaman kebele, nyanghtom woreda. 4. conclusions and future implication the result from this study revealed that the demonstration of sorghum (melkam variety) had offered superior performance in grain yield compared with the agropastoral practices and has highly improved agro-pastoralists’ livelihoods as it was used for further seed production and home consumption. pastoral and agro-pastoral groups involved in improved sorghum production are currently able to consume and use the seed for further expansion. the result also justified that the improved sorghum variety has shown a 200% of yield increment over the local variety which agro-pastoralists practicing using omo shesh (use of water when omo river overflows). besides, the mean profit from sorghum production using irrigation per hectare was 120,144 eb/ha which would inspire new agropastorals to have a tendency to start with improved sorghum production. the host agro-pastoralists of the clusterbased demonstration also played a crucial role as a source of knowledge and high-quality seeds in order to distribute the improved variety of sorghum (melkam) to other local agro-pastoralists. therefore, the district’s agriculture and rural development offices should scale out the melkam variety to agro-pastorals and it is advisable that organize seed producer’s cooperatives/groups in order to continually supply the seed of the melkam variety and to ensure sustainable production. author contributions mr. awoke t. wrote and edited the entire manuscript in addition to writing the proposal, securing the funding, and conducting the research and data collection. mr. asmera a. took part in gathering socio-economic data, analyzing it, drafting the manuscript, and formatting it following journal guidelines. dr. tekle y. and mr. anteneh t. took part in land acquisition, preparation, planting, and monitoring activities. funding the lowland livelihood resilience project (llrp) provided funding for this research project to enhance resilience in ethiopia’s pastoral regions by enhancing food security and reducing poverty in south omo. acknowledgments the author thanks the pastoral livelihood improvement project component of the lowland livelihood resilience project (llrp) of the regional bureau of pastorals in 71 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 southern nation, nationality and people regional state. we highly appreciate llrp experts in hawassa and south omo llrp coordinating office for timely budget release and other logistical supports. finally, we would like to express our appreciation to nyangatom woreda stakeholders for the cooperation and participation in the field work. data availability the accompanying materials or the main text contain all the data, and upon request, the corresponding author will provide the raw data. conflicts of interest the authors pronounce that there are no encounters of interest regarding the publication of this paper. references [1] 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(editors), 2013. women’s participation in agricultural cooperatives in ethiopia. 2015 conference; 2015 aug 9-14. milan, italy. p. 1-32. doi: https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.210967 [15] abebaw, d., haile, m.g., 2013. the impact of cooperatives on agricultural technology adoption: empirical evidence from ethiopia. food policy. 38, 82-91. [16] abate, g.t., francesconi, g.n., getnet, k., 2014. impact of agricultural cooperatives on smallholders’ technical efficiency: empirical evidence from ethiopia. annals of public and cooperative economics. 85(2), 257-286. [17] tefera, d.a., bijman, j., slingerland, m.a., 2017. agricultural cooperatives in ethiopia: evolution functions and impact. journal of international development. 29(4), 431-453. [18] hailemariam, s., fistum, m., amare, s., et al., 2021. promotion of improved sorghum technologies through large-scale demonstration in gololcha woreda, arsi zone of oromia regional state, ethiopia. american journal of plant sciences. 12, 366-375. doi: https://doi.org/10.4236/ajps.2021.123023 [19] abady, s., liku, g., yadeta, d., 2017. participatory varietal selection and evaluation of twelve sorghum (sorghum bicolor (l.) moench) varieties for lowhttp://www.eiar.gov.et http://www.statsethiopia.gov.et/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/population-of-weredas-as-of-july-2021.pdf http://www.statsethiopia.gov.et/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/population-of-weredas-as-of-july-2021.pdf http://www.statsethiopia.gov.et/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/population-of-weredas-as-of-july-2021.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.2760/57450 https://doi.org/10.4236/ajps.2021.123023 72 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 01 | march 2023 lands of eastern hararghe. international journal of plant breeding and crop science. 4, 281-285. [20] kinfe, h., tesfaye, a., 2018. yield performance and adoption of released sorghum varieties in ethiopia. edelweiss applied science and technology. 2, 4655. doi: https://doi.org/10.33805/2576.8484.115 [21] birhane, g., belay, f., gebreselassie, t., et al., 2019. enhancing sorghum yield through demonstration of improved sorghum varieties in tanqua-abergelle wereda, central zone of tigray, ethiopia. journal of agricultural extension and rural development. 11, 11-16. doi: https://doi.org/10.5897/jaerd2018.1020 [22] eiar, 2016. cereal crop production and management manual. available from: http://www.eiar.gov.et [23] kohl, d., 2016. farmers must manage variable and fixed costs [cited 2017 feb]. available from: http:// www.cornandsoybeandigest.com [24] moran, j., 2009. categorizing farm costs and farm revenues. business management for tropical dairy farmers. landlinks press: australia. pp. 103-114. [25] darst, b.c., fixen, p.e., 2000. high yields, high profits, and high soil fertility. better crops. 84(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.33805/2576.8484.115 https://doi.org/10.5897/jaerd2018.1020 http://www.cornandsoybeandigest.com http://www.cornandsoybeandigest.com 32 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 research on world agricultural economy https://journals.nasspublishing.com/index.php/rwae copyright © 2023 by the author(s). published by nanyang academy of sciences pte. ltd. this is an open access article under the creative commons attribution-noncommercial 4.0 international (cc by-nc 4.0) license. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.846 received: 21 march 2023; received in revised form: 26 may 2023; accepted: 31 may 2023; published: 6 june 2023 citation: andros, s., gerasymchuk, v., 2023. development trends of the market of agricultural lending to households in ukraine: analysis of consumer and mortgage loans. research on world agricultural economy. 4(2), 846. http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.846 *corresponding author: svitlana andros, department of financial, credit and tax policy, national scientific center “institute of agrarian economy”, kyiv, 10, street heroyiv oborony, 03127, ukraine; email: andros.sv@ukr.net research article development trends of the market of agricultural lending to households in ukraine: analysis of consumer and mortgage loans svitlana andros1* vasyl gerasymchuk2 1. department of financial, credit and tax policy, national scientific center “institute of agrarian economy”, kyiv, 10, street heroyiv oborony, 03127, ukraine 2. department of international economics, national technical university of ukraine “ihor sikorsky kyiv polytechnic institute”, kyiv, prospekt peremohy 37, 03056, ukraine abstract: the purpose of the article is to assess the conditions and identify the features of the market for consumer and mortgage lending to households based on the economic and statistical analysis of the data panel. the instrumental and methodological apparatus of the article compiled general scientific principles and approaches to economic analysis: scientific abstraction, analysis and synthesis, grouping, typology, comparison, qualitative and quantitative expert assessments; logical and contextual methods of processing theoretical material, as well as the method of economic and statistical comparisons. the article analyzes the dynamics of consumer and mortgage loans for households in ukraine from 2007 to 2023, and highlights their socio-economic significance. the main problems in the field of consumer lending are formulated, the resolution of which is necessary for the intensive agricultural activity of households. it has been established that, despite the accumulation of certain experiences in the banking sector, the mortgage lending market has not become massive today. it is concluded that the reasons for this situation are the difficulty in the practical application of legislative regulations aimed at protecting the interests of creditors; high level of interest rates; low level of real income of households and, consequently, low effective demand for mortgage loans; the impossibility of mass provision of long-term mortgage loans due to high risk (interest, credit, legislative); almost complete exclusion of the state from participation in the formation of a civilized market for housing mortgage lending. the prerequisites for the further development of consumer and mortgage lending to households in ukraine are formulated. the prospects for development and the main directions for improving consumer and mortgage lending to households are determined. keywords: households; a loan for the purchase; construction and reconstruction of real estate; share of loans; agricultural lending; consumer credit; loan repayment period; growth rates of loans http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.846 http://dx.doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v4i2.846 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5561-901x 33 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 1. introduction in the conditions of war, in order to increase the efficiency of their activities and maintain the growth rates of their business activity indicators, banks are looking for new directions for the development of consumer lending. in this regard, consumer credit for households is becoming one of the incentives for intensive agricultural activity and an actual area of work for ukrainian banks. consumer credit is one of the main products offered by financial institutions to households. they play an important role in stimulating consumer demand, which has a positive effect on the dynamics of trade and production. thanks to a consumer loan, a person gets the opportunity to buy goods and services that are not available to him at the current level of income. at the same time, consumer lending is associated with a number of acute socio-economic problems and risks that directly affect the welfare of consumers. the development of consumer lending in ukraine is a natural consequence of market transformations, which entailed a corresponding transformation of the banking sector and the credit market, the system of values and values of households. the attitude of people toward lending immediately changed, and the loyalty of the population to live on credit increased sharply. thus, in general, lending to the population is developing dynamically, and the emerging prerequisites for its further improvement create conditions for effective banking activities in this area. at the same time, the presence of negative trends and factors affecting the stability and stability of the banking system makes it necessary to study the state of consumer lending and analyze potential problems. housing conditions, along with working conditions, the state of the environment and the development of social infrastructure, are the main components of the concept of “standard of living” since they characterize the well-being of the individual, his material opportunities and individual advantages. the indicators of improvement and provision of housing in ukraine are low compared to the indicators of countries with a developed market economy. moreover, according to the level of income of the population of ukraine, it is a country with low incomes, and according to indicators of the housing stock, it belongs to countries with incomes of the population above average. this means that at present, for the majority of the population of ukraine, their own housing is a great wealth. today, when the state has actually abandoned the practice of providing free housing, and state programs of subsidies and concessional lending in ukraine are almost inactive, mortgage lending can become an effective way to solve the problem of providing housing to the population. in addition, this is a profitable business for financial institutions. it is safe to say that the demand for residential mortgage loans will exist as long as the demand for housing continues. therefore, mortgages are actually the only segment of lending that retains significant potential for further development. mortgage lending is the most flexible, versatile and efficient way of financing, primarily in the largest sector of the real estate market—residential. providing loans for the purchase and construction (reconstruction) of real estate (mortgage lending) is a form of credit relations that performs important economic and social functions and involves the interaction of many market entities. at the same time, one of the obstacles to the further development of mortgage housing lending remains the terms of granting the loan. the current interest rate of 9.3% represents a greater financial burden for borrowers, especially for low-income families. all this determines the special practical and scientific relevance of the problem of mortgage lending. the high dependence of households on the external attraction of funds and their low availability served as the basis for conducting an economic and statistical analysis of consumer and mortgage lending to households in ukraine. 2. materials and methods the methodological basis of the article was the theoretical basis, including the works of the classics of economic science, and research by domestic and foreign scientists on the problems of consumer banking and mortgage lending to agriculture. the use of the provisions of economic theory made it possible to expand the understanding of the mechanism of bank lending to households and the need for its development. the article uses the following methods of knowledge and analysis of economic processes: the method of theoretical generalization—in the study of the socio-economic significance of consumer and mortgage bank lending to households; methods of statistical comparisons—in the study of the structure of consumer and mortgage bank lending to households; the method of analysis of hierarchies —when developing a draft of measures to improve banking agricultural lending to households; system method—in the analysis and assessment of the state and development trends of the ukrainian market of consumer and mortgage lending to households; the method of correlation and regression analysis—in determining the system of indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of consumer 34 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 and mortgage bank lending to households; methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, comparison—when calculating the share and growth rates of consumer and mortgage loans of households in ukraine for the period 2007-2023. the authors in their article relied on the monetary statistics of the national bank. the article is presented by a set of theoretical provisions put forward and substantiated by the authors, according to which the development of consumer and mortgage lending to households is aimed at intensive agricultural activity, as well as at activating the processes of socio-economic development of the state, which is achieved through the implementation of theoretical and practical developments in the area under consideration. 3. literature review in foreign economic literature, there are different approaches to the definition of consumer credit. so, some authors mean by it the provision of general purpose loans to individuals, others include all types of loans provided to individuals, with the exception of housing loans, and some include all types of loans issued to individuals in consumer loans [1-3]. scientific works of scientists-economists reveal the main provisions of the theoretical foundations of finance, credit and consumption; represent the economic nature and functional purpose of the lending process; contain a theoretical and methodological justification for lending; determine the role of credit operations in the activities of a credit institution; describe in detail the indicators of lending as a sphere of banking activity in a market economy [4-9]. in the works of agrarian economists, the thesis about the need to provide agriculture with cheap and affordable credit, as well as providing direct state assistance, is widespread [10-14]. gan et al., 2012; meng et al., 2013; foote, christopher et al., 2019; mohamed et al., 2020 [15-18] are usually limited to stating the growing role of bank credit in the formation of agricultural resources, but do not delve into the existing lending mechanisms in detail. jiang and yu, 2019; bezemer, dirk et al., 2020; laufer, steven, and andrew paciorek, 2022 [19-21] developed models of mortgage loans, the structure of the organization of the mortgage market, described the system of public housing lending and state participation in the functioning of the mortgage market. ferreira et al., 2014; fürstenau and hommel, 2019; deng et al., 2022 [22-24] provide a description of mortgage loan models and home loan arrangements in foreign countries. at the same time, questions about the nature of mortgage lending and the classification of mortgage loans according to various criteria, the place of mortgage loans in the structure of the financial market and the formation of the real estate financing market (mortgage market) in ukraine, the periodization of the development of housing lending in war conditions remained outside the scope of the research. assessing the level of scientific development in the chosen direction, it should be noted that today there are practically no special fundamental works on the problems of bank consumer credit for households. the bulk of the research addresses only some of the issues related to the socio-economic significance and functioning of this form of credit. the generalization of the practice of consumer lending has not yet been the subject of a special study in our country. ukrainian commercial banks have not fully mastered the knowledge of the features of the operation of the mechanism for the development of consumer lending. the methodological support that has banking structures is mainly based on the ideas and experience of each particular bank. the procedure for providing credit resources to agricultural producers, including households in war conditions, has not yet been studied well. to a certain extent, this can be explained by the fact that simultaneously with the change in the forms of farming in the countryside, the entire system of lending to agricultural producers was changing. the question of the essence, varieties, and functions of a mortgage loan can be the subject of further theoretical research with the development of the mortgage business, the emergence of new forms of lending, and changes in external factors affecting this sector of the economy. given the insufficient development of the topic, this article is, according to the authors, an original study of consumer and mortgage market trends in ukraine based on economic and statistical analysis. 4. results consumer lending is an integral part of the money market. in recent years, the ukrainian consumer lending market has been undergoing a stage of dynamic development. the purpose of the functioning of the sphere of consumer lending is to increase the income of banks, meet the needs of the population in goods and services at the expense of credit resources, expand the purchasing opportunities of citizens, and increase the economic potential of the country. as you can see in table 1, in the field of consumer lending to households over the analyzed period, there is 35 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 a moderate growth dynamics: from uah 115.032 million in 2007 to uah 188.811 million in january 2023. in 2021, consumer lending to households reached its maximum value—uah 214.134 million. if january 2023 is compared with 2007, then there was an increase of almost 1.6 times over the period under review. commercial banks constantly strive to provide their clients with new, convenient credit services in the field of consumer lending. in ukraine, check credit and bank credit cards are considered new types of bank consumer loans, and an additional direction in the field of lending has appeared—targeted (commodity) lending, which, thanks to its volumes, provides a sufficiently high level of profitability. the development in consumer lending affected the sales channels of banking services. in order to increase their sales, banks implement alternative sales channels, such as agency and brokerage sales schemes. as seen in figure 1, in the structure of bank consumer lending to households by maturity, the largest share in the period 2007-2012 and 2015-2016 take loans for more than 5 years (long-term). regarding consumer loans from 1 to 5 years, we note more or less balanced dynamics during 2007-2023. although, in general, the share of these loans in the portfolio of consumer loans decreased from 38.3% in 2007 to 28.9% in 2022, that is, by 1.3 times. the share of short-term consumer loans (up to 1 year) issued to households tends to gradually increase from 16.6% in 2007 to 59.2% (maximum value) in january 2023. in general, in the structure of bank consumer lending to households by maturity, the largest share in january 2023 is occupied by short-term loans (59.2%). the share of medium-term and long-term loans in this period is 28.1% and 12.6%, respectively. the expansion of consumer lending has a positive effect on the development of the banking sector, opening up new niches for business, favorably influencing the social environment, solving the problems of meeting the needs of the population, and in macroeconomic terms, expanding aggregate consumer demand, which gives an additional impetus to the development of the economic system. during the war, in order to expand their activities, banks became more loyal and accessible to households. however, under the standard agribusiness lending scheme, a credit institution is forced to require its clients to protable 1. consumer loans provided to households, by maturity (balances at the end of the period, uah million). year total loans to households by target direction consumer loans total including by terms, million uah specific weight of loans, % up to 1 year from 1 year to 5 years more than 5 years total consumer loans up to 1 year from 1 year to 5 years more than 5 years loan growth rate, % 2007 160.386 115.032 19.072 44.007 51.953 71.7 16.6 38.3 45.2 2008 280.490 186.088 25.128 61.881 99.080 66.3 13.5 33.3 53.2 61.8 2009 241.249 137.113 19.219 40.584 77.310 56.8 14.0 29.6 56.4 –26.3 2010 209.538 122.942 23.138 32.297 67.507 58.7 18.8 26.3 54.9 –10.3 2011 201.224 126.192 32.324 37.338 56.530 62.7 25.6 29.6 44.8 2.6 2012 187.629 125.011 35.874 41.678 47.460 66.6 28.7 33.3 37.9 –0.9 2013 193.529 137.346 50.872 47.555 38.919 70.9 37.0 34.6 28.3 9.9 2014 211.215 135.094 51.769 40.928 42.398 63.9 38.3 30.3 31.4 –1.6 2015 174.869 104.879 33.293 29.537 42.049 59.9 31.7 28.2 40.0 –22.4 2016 163.333 101.528 34.255 27.850 39.423 62.1 33.7 27.4 38.8 –3.2 2017 174.182 122.066 42.614 45.227 34.225 70.0 34.9 37.1 28.0 20.2 2018 201.102 151.625 69.734 49.171 32.719 75.4 45.9 32.4 21.6 24.2 2019 212.515 173.702 89.156 59.853 24.693 81.7 51.3 34.5 14.2 14.6 2020 206.471 170.719 88.391 58.937 23.391 82.7 51.8 34.5 13.7 –1.7 2021 254.385 214.134 114.519 76.763 22.852 84.2 53.5 35.8 10.7 25.4 2022 221.105 188.656 109.933 54.653 24.071 85.3 58.3 28.9 12.8 –11.9 january 2023 221.606 188.811 111.799 53.128 23.884 85.2 59.2 28.1 12.6 0.08 note: compiled and calculated by the authors based on the data from monetary and credit statistics [25]. 36 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 vide a business plan as collateral—real estate or goods in circulation and set more stringent conditions for the transparency of financial reporting. despite the attractiveness of this area for all participants in the lending process, it should be noted that the mechanism of bank consumer lending to households is not well developed and, in particular, banks ignore the specifics of consumer lending to this category of borrowers when assessing their creditworthiness. thus, the improvement of the mechanism of bank consumer lending to households, taking into account the characteristics of their activities, is an urgent problem and requires serious scientific development. regarding the volume of household loans for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate, it should be noted that in the period 2007-2023, there is a tendency to reduce the volume of household lending in this area. if in 2007 the volume of lending in this area amounted to uah 40.778 million, then in january 2023, this figure was already uah 21.643 million, that is, there is a decrease in lending by almost 1.9 times (table 2). as seen in figure 2, in the structure of bank lending to households for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate by maturity, the largest share in the period under review is occupied by loans over 10 years (long-term). the share of these loans issued to households tends to slowly increase from 70.1% in 2007 to 80.1% (maximum value) in january 2023 (an increase of 1.1 times) over 17 years. regarding loans for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate with maturities of 5 to 10 years, we note a general downward trend from 2007-2023. the maximum value of the share of these loans in the portfolio of household loans for the acquisition, construction and reconstruction of real estate by maturity was observed in 2019-2021—20.5%; 20.3% and 20.6% respectively. this was followed by a decrease and in 2022 amounted to 15.6% (a decrease compared to 2019 by almost 1.3 times). regarding loans for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate with maturities from 1 to 5 years, we note a declining trend over 2007-2023: from 9.4% in 2007 to 3.9% in january 2023 (a decrease of 2.4 times). the share of short-term household loans for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate tends to gradually increase in the period 2007-2015 from 1.2% to 9.5% (maximum value). in the future, there is a gradual decrease from 6.1% in 2016 to 0.4% (minimum value) in 2022-2023. thus, from the end of 2015 to 2023, there has been a decrease in short-term loans to households in the banking portfolio by 23.8 times. in general, in the structure of bank lending to households for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate by maturity, the largest share in january 2023 is occupied by long-term loans of 80.1%. loans from 5 to 10 years accounted for 15.6% during this period. the share of loans from 1 to 5 years and short-term loans is 3.9% and 0.4%, respectively. as can be seen from table 3, in the field of consumer lending to households in 2021, there are maximum growth volumes of up to uah 214.134 million. subsequently, they slightly decreased to uah 188.656 million in 2022. 14 .016 .6 13 .5 18 .8 25 .6 28 .7 37 .0 3 38 .3 31 .7 33 .7 34 .9 45 .9 51 .3 51 .8 53 .5 58 .3 59 .2 38 .3 33 .3 29 .6 26 .3 29 .6 3 3. 3 34 .6 30 .3 28 .2 27 .4 37 .1 32 .4 34 .5 34 .5 35 .8 28 .9 28 .1 40 .0 28 .0 45 .2 53 .2 56 .4 54 .9 44 .8 37 .9 28 .3 31 .4 38 .8 21 .6 14 .2 13 .7 10 .7 12 .8 12 .6 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 share of consumer loans to households up to 1 year, % share of consumer loans to households from 1 to 5 years, % share of consumer loans to households over 5 years, % figure 1. the share of loans to households by maturity in the portfolio of consumer loans in 2007-2023, %. note: compiled by the authors based on data from monetary and credit statistics [25]. 37 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 table 2. loans provided to households for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate, by maturity (balances at the end of the period, uah million). year total loans to households by target direction loans for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate total including by terms, million uah specific weight of loans, % loan growth rate, % up to 1 year from 1 year to 5 years from 5 years to 10 years more than 10 years total loans up to 1 year from 1 year to 5 years from 5 years to 10 years more than 10 years 2007 160.386 40.778 0.483 3.825 7.872 28.597 25.4 1.2 9.4 19.3 70.1 2008 280.490 88.352 1.384 5.307 15.241 66.420 31.5 1.6 6.0 17.3 75.2 116.7 2009 241.249 98.792 2.533 7.432 19.212 69.616 40.9 2.6 7.5 19.4 70.5 11.8 2010 209.538 81.953 2.291 4.195 14.961 60.505 39.1 2.8 5.1 18.3 73.8 –17.0 2011 201.224 70.447 2.385 3.643 13.024 51.396 35.0 3.4 5.1 18.5 72.9 –14.0 2012 187.629 58.427 1.552 3.778 9.313 43.785 31.1 2.7 6.5 15.9 74.9 –17.1 2013 193.529 51.447 2.263 3.450 6.896 38.837 26.6 4.4 6.7 13.4 75.5 –11.9 2014 211.215 71.803 3.782 3.236 7.620 57.165 33.9 5.3 4.5 10.6 79.6 39.6 2015 174.869 66.169 6.306 3.308 7.711 48.845 37.8 9.5 4.9 11.7 73.8 –7.8 2016 163.333 58.549 3.581 2.500 7.547 44.921 35.8 6.1 4.3 12.9 76.7 –11.5 2017 174.182 48.268 1.253 1.890 8.683 36.441 27.7 2.6 3.9 17.9 75.5 –17.6 2018 201.102 44.458 1.114 1.798 8.755 32.791 22.1 2.5 4.0 19.7 73.8 –7.9 2019 212.515 32.611 0.621 1.657 6.673 23.661 15.3 1.9 5.1 20.5 72.6 –26.6 2020 206.471 28.924 0.402 1.416 5.866 21.239 14.0 1.4 4.9 20.3 73.4 –11.3 2021 254.385 28.560 0.225 1.449 5.874 21.012 11.23 0.8 5.1 20.6 73.6 –1.3 2022 221.105 21.337 0.084 0.877 3.403 16.972 9.7 0.4 4.1 15.9 79.5 –25.3 january 2023 221.606 21.643 0.083 0.848 3.366 17.346 9.8 0.4 3.9 15.6 80.1 1.4 note: compiled and calculated by the authors based on the data from monetary and credit statistics [25]. 0. 4 0. 4 0. 81. 41. 92. 5 2. 66 .19 .5 5. 3 4. 4 2. 73. 4 2. 8 2. 6 1. 6 1. 2 6 .0 3. 9 4. 15. 1 4. 9 5. 1 4. 0 3. 9 4. 34. 9 4. 56. 7 6. 5 5. 1 5. 17. 59. 4 15 .6 15 .92 0. 6 20 .3 20 .5 19 .7 17 .9 12 .9 11 .7 10 .613 .415 .918 .5 18 .3 19 .4 17 .319 .3 80 .1 79 .5 73 .6 73 .4 72 .6 73 .8 75 .5 76 .7 73 .8 79 .6 75 .5 74 .9 72 .9 73 .8 70 .57 5. 2 70 .1 0 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 share of household mortgage loans up to 1 y ear, % share of household mortgage loans from 1 to 5 y ears, % share of household mortgage loans from 5 to 10 y ears, % share of household mortgage loans over 10 y ears, % figure 2. share of loans to households by maturity in the portfolio of loans for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate in 2007-2023, %. note: compiled by the authors based on data from monetary and credit statistics [25]. 38 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 regarding household loans for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate, we note that the maximum growth was observed in 2009—uah 98.792 million. starting from 2010 (uah 81.953 million), the volume of household lending has been decreasing, reaching its minimum value in 2022 at the level of uah 21.337 million (a 3.8-fold drop). the volumes of other household loans tend to gradually increase from uah 4.577 million in 2007 to uah 11.152 million in january 2023 (maximum growth). the minimum value of this indicator was noted in 2016 at the level of uah 3.255 million. as seen in figure 3, at the end of 2022, there was a significant drop in the growth rate of household consumer loans to –11.9% (figure 3). this was the worst result in recent years, if we do not take into account 2009 (–26.3%) and 2015 (–22.4%). the reason for the slowdown in the growth rate of consumer lending can be called the reduction of requirements for borrowers by banks when applying for a loan, which leads to the emergence and significant increase in the number of bad loans that pose a real threat to banks. the ukrainian legislation lacks norms that allow efficient collection of debts on loans, which can lead to a crisis in consumer lending and problems in the banking sector. in general, the growth rate of household consumer loans in january 2023 amounted to only +0.08%. for comparison, the last high growth rates of household consumer loans for the analyzed period were in 2008 (+61.8%). it should be noted that the result of 2017 (+20.2%) was atypical due to the abnormal dynamics of assets in 2015 (–22.4%) and 2016 (–3.2%), when against the backdrop of unprecedented turbulence, household lending rose immediately to 20.2% in 2017. despite what has been said, the prospects for the development of consumer lending to households remain quite high. apart from the results of 2020 (–1.7%) and 2022 (–11.9%), the dynamics of the growth rate of household consumer loans in the period 2017-2023 were stable. as seen in figure 4, during the period under review (with the exception of 2008-2009 and 2014), there is a significant drop in the growth rate of household loans for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate. in general, the growth rate of household loans in january 2023 amounted to +1.4%. for comparison, the last high growth rate of household loans for the purchase, table 3. loans to households by target direction (fund balances at the end of the period, uah million). year total loans to households by target direction, uah million growth rates of total loans, % consumer loans, uah million growth rates of consumer loans, % loans for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate, uah million growth rate of loans for acquisition, construction and reconstruction of real estate, % other loans, uah million growth rates of other loans, % 2007 160.386 115.032 40.778 4.577 2008 280.490 74.9 186.088 61.8 88.352 116.7 6.050 32.2 2009 241.249 –13.9 137.113 –26.3 98.792 11.8 5.343 –11.7 2010 209.538 –13.1 122.942 –10.3 81.953 –17.0 4.643 –13.1 2011 201.224 –3.9 126.192 2.6 70.447 –14.0 4.585 –1.3 2012 187.629 –6.8 125.011 –0.9 58.427 –17.1 4.191 –8.6 2013 193.529 3.1 137.346 9.9 51.447 –11.9 4.736 13.0 2014 211.215 9.1 135.094 –1.6 71.803 39.6 4.318 –8.8 2015 174.869 –17.2 104.879 –22.4 66.169 –7.8 3.821 –11.5 2016 163.333 –6.6 101.528 –3.2 58.549 –11.5 3.255 –14.8 2017 174.182 6.6 122.066 20.2 48.268 –17.6 3.848 18.2 2018 201.102 15.5 151.625 24.2 44.458 –7.9 5.019 30.4 2019 212.515 5.7 173.702 14.6 32.611 –26.6 6.203 23.6 2020 206.471 –2.8 170.719 –1.7 28.924 –11.3 6.828 10.1 2021 254.385 23.2 214.134 25.4 28.560 –1.3 11.691 71.2 2022 221.105 –13.1 188.656 –11.9 21.337 –25.3 11.112 –4.9 january 2023 221.606 0.22 188.811 0.08 21.643 1.4 11.152 0.4 note: compiled and calculated by the authors based on the data from monetary and credit statistics [25]. 39 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 construction and reconstruction of real estate for the analyzed period was in 2008 (+116.7%). it should be especially noted that the result in 2014 (+39.6%) was atypical due to the abnormal dynamics of assets in the period 2010-2013 (–17.0; –14.0%; –17.1%; –11.9%, respectively), when against the backdrop of unprecedented turbulence, household lending increased immediately to 39.6% in 2014. in the future, there is a significant downward trend in loans. thus, without taking into account the result of 20082009 (+116.7% and 11.8%, respectively), as well as in 2014 (39.6%), in general, the dynamics of growth rates of household loans for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate in the period under review was downward. as seen in figure 5, at the end of 2021, there is a significant increase in the growth rate of other household loans to 71.2%. this is the best result in the period under review. in general, the growth rate of other household loans in january 2023 amounted to +0.4%. for comparison, the last worst growth rate of other household loans was observed in 2009-2010 (–11.7% and –13.1% respectively) and in 2012 (–8.6%), as well as in 2014-2016 (–8.8%; –11.5%; –14.8% respectively). 0.08 -11.9 25.4 -1.7 14.6 24.2 20.2 -3.2 -22.4 -1.6 9.9 -0.9 2.6 -10.3 -26.3 61.8 -30 0 30 60 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 growth rates of household consumer loans, % figure 3. growth rates of household consumer loans in 2008-2023, %. note: compiled by the authors based on data from monetary and credit statistics [25]. 1. 4 -2 5. 3 -1 .3 -1 1. 3 -2 6. 3 -7 .9 -1 7. 6 -1 1. 5 11 6. 7 11 .8 -1 7. 0 -1 4. 0 -1 7. 1 -1 1. 9 39 .6 -7 .8 -30 0 30 60 90 120 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23 growth rates of household loans for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate, % % figure 4. growth rates of household loans for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate in 2008-2023, %. note: compiled by the authors based on data from monetary and credit statistics [25]. 40 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 of particular note, the 2017 result (+18.2%) was atypical due to the anomalous asset dynamics in previous years, when other household loans increased significantly against the backdrop of unprecedented turbulence. thus, in the period 2009-2016, there was a downward trend in the growth rates of other household loans (except 2013). then the situation normalized: the growth rate of other household loans in the period 2017-2023 increased significantly (excluding 2022—4.9%). as seen in figure 6, the share of household consumer loans in the total volume of loans in the target direction is 85.3% in 2022 this is the maximum value for the period under review. it should be noted that the share of these loans issued to households tends to slowly grow from +71.7% in 2007 to +85.2% in january 2023 (an increase of almost 1.2 times) over 17 years. with regard to the specific weight of household loans for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate, we note a general tendency to decrease during 2007-2023. the maximum value of the specific weight of these loans in the total amount of targeted loans was observed in 2009: +40.9%. then there was a significant decrease and in 2022 it was 9.7%, i.e., a decrease compared to 2009 by 4.2 times. the thing is that this is the minimum value of the specific weight for the analyzed period. the key parameter influencing the market is the average mortgage rate. lowering mortgage rates has two consequences: 1) the borrower has the opportunity to pay less than the same loan amount. 2) the borrower has the opportunity to take a loan for a large amount with the same amount of periodic payment. accordingly, the demand for real estate is inversely related to the mortgage interest rate—the lower the rate, the higher the demand and price level in the market, and vice versa—the higher the rate, the lower the demand and price level. interest rates on loans to households in the target area by currency are presented in table 4. the number of interest rates for households and the procedure for their payment is established by the bank and are determined in the loan agreement, depending on the main factors: the discount rate of the national bank of ukraine and the state of the credit market; average interest rate on interbank loans; type, term, size and degree of credit risk; stability of the country’s money circulation; the price of credit resources received by the bank in the market; interest rates of banks-competitors; the level of credit risks inherent in a particular credit project. in particular, the longer the loan term, the higher the interest rate. the interest rate is also affected by the frequency of interest payments and loan repayment, the financial condition of the company, and loan security. the results of the analysis show that there is a pronounced inverse relationship between the interest rate and indicators of the loan amount and the value of real estate: the higher the interest rate, the lower the loan amount available for the same payment and, accordingly, the value of the acquired property. according to the national bank of ukraine, as of march 1, 2023, the share of problem loans in banks’ loan 0. 4 -4 .9 71 .2 10 .1 23 .6 30 .4 18 .2 -1 4. 8 32 .2 -1 1. 7 -1 3. 1 -1 .3 -8 .6 13 .0 -8 .8 -1 1. 5 -15 0 15 30 45 60 75 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 growth rates of other household loans, % figure 5. growth rates of other household loans in 2008-2023, %. note: compiled by the authors based on data from monetary and credit statistics [25]. 41 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 70 .0 85 .2 85 .3 84 .2 82 .7 81 .7 75 .4 62 .1 59 .963 .97 0. 9 66 .6 62 .7 58 .7 56 .8 66 .37 1. 7 14 .0 35 .0 9. 8 9. 711 .2 3 15 .32 2. 127 .7 35 .8 37 .8 33 .9 26 .631 .1 39 .1 40 .9 31 .5 25 .4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 share of household consumer loans, % share of household loans for the purchase, construction and reconstruction of real estate, % figure 6. the specific weight of loans to households in the portfolio of targeted loans in 2007-2023, %. note: compiled by the authors based on data from monetary and credit statistics [25]. table 4. interest rates on loans to households by target area by currency. year consumer loans mortgage loans other loans total including by currency total including by currency total including by currency uah u.s. dollar euro other currencies uah u.s. dollar euro other currencies uah u.s. dollar euro other currencies 2007 16.3 19.6 13.5 12.8 9.4 13.0 15.5 12.7 11.5 9.3 … … … … … 2008 19.8 23.4 15.0 14.7 10.5 14.0 16.8 13.5 13.0 9.6 … … … … … 2009 22.4 24.0 16.3 18.1 8.9 17.6 20.6 13.3 12.4 9.0 22.6 23.9 15.5 16.4 24.0 2010 26.5 27.4 13.5 19.0 7.1 15.2 19.3 11.9 13.2 7.6 19.6 20.6 10.9 15.8 22.2 2011 28.1 28.8 13.2 14.7 7.2 14.9 16.4 9.3 12.4 6.4 18.6 19.0 11.0 10.7 9.0 2012 28.7 29.0 12.6 11.0 8.0 15.9 17.1 11.1 11.0 6.6 21.8 22.0 13.0 11.1 11.1 2013 28.5 28.5 12.7 19.5 7.1 17.6 18.5 13.0 12.7 7.0 22.2 22.5 12.2 9.7 7.3 2014 27.8 27.8 19.2 25.1 8.1 15.9 16.9 8.5 11.8 7.7 22.8 23.2 11.2 9.6 13.0 2015 29.7 29.8 18.0 32.6 11.1 11.7 11.8 9.3 12.6 6.3 28.0 28.2 10.3 11.4 8.5 2016 31.6 31.6 26.3 40.0 15.6 12.1 12.4 7.3 9.7 6.3 27.7 28.1 5.8 7.5 – 2017 30.0 30.0 40.0 41.2 21.6 17.3 17.4 9.0 2.9 4.9 23.5 23.8 9.4 6.6 – 2018 31.3 31.3 15.8 32.0 6.2 17.1 17.5 9.3 5.0 5.3 24.2 24.3 9.0 7.4 – 2019 32.6 32.6 36.6 41.0 6.5 17.0 17.4 7.9 3.3 4.6 26.2 26.5 9.1 8.8 20.5 2020 32.4 32.4 30.5 40.6 7.0 13.1 13.3 7.1 7.9 – 23.1 23.3 8.3 7.6 – 2021 30.2 30.2 42.1 42.1 50.0 12.2 12.2 6.0 6.2 4.0 20.2 20.3 7.4 5.2 – 2022 27.0 27.0 28.9 38.4 11.8 8.5 8.6 5.8 – 4.8 18.6 18.7 6.0 3.7 – january 2023 29.8 29.8 33.3 42.5 50.0 9.3 9.4 6.1 – 3.0 19.9 20.1 6.2 8.8 29.8 (weighted average annualized rates, %) note: compiled by the authors based on data from monetary and credit statistics [25]. 42 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 portfolios amounted to almost 38.5% (figure 7). compared to january 1, 2022—30.02% (before the start of full-scale hostilities in ukraine), the share of toxic debts increased by 8.46%. the growth of non-performing loans has become a completely expected phenomenon against the backdrop of the destruction of agricultural enterprises, damage to infrastructure, primarily energy, and falling domestic demand. by the way, credit risk remains the main threat to the banking system. banks entered 2023 with the highest volume of toxic loans in the last five years. as of january 1, 2018, the share of non-performing loans in the banking sector was 54.54%, and as of march 1, 2023—38.48%. summarizing the results of the analysis, we note that the volume of problem debt in agriculture will grow as the war continues the uncertainty for the economy and agribusiness is very high. the increase in toxic loans has intensified after the start of regular shelling of the energy infrastructure. in 2023, a critical accumulation of bad debts may occur. as a result, those households whose assets have been damaged by hostilities or ended up in occupied territories are at risk of becoming insolvent. separately, it should be noted that the fact of war does not abolish the obligation to repay a loan (debt) by households. during martial law, the parties are not liable for non-fulfillment of the contract, but only for the duration of such circumstances. all obligations are renewed after the end of the war. the presence of martial law does not cancel the payment of the loan. households (borrowers) still have to repay all their consumer loans, which include mortgages. according to the law, the risk of damage/destruction of property is borne by its owner. if the borrower no longer has mortgaged property due to shelling and hostilities, and he took money from the bank and vouched for this property, then he is obliged to pledge other equivalent property in order to guarantee the return of the loan. thus, despite the war, all financial problems will remain on the person. it can be concluded that debt (credit) does not disappear during the war. moreover, the bank continues to accrue interest. in addition, the loss of property does not affect the need to repay the loan. however, there is only one way to compensate for damage or loss of property—it’s insurance. if the factor of war is not excluded from force majeure, the insurance company must reimburse its cost. another solution may be to apply for compensation from the state for property lost because of the war, confirming the actual costs of its restoration or the original cost. the legislation allows temporary suspension of mortgage payments if it is not possible to pay the loan and interest. banks do not have the right during martial law to charge a penalty or apply penalties in case of non-payment of the loan. but as soon as martial law is abolished, a person again has the obligation to service the loan. during martial law, the bank is not entitled, even if the property remains, and the loan is not paid, to collect it because of the debt. that is, they do not have the right to take, sell, and transfer property to third parties. to do this, for the 54.54 52.85 48.36 30.02 38.48 41 20 30 40 50 60 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 the share of non-performing loans in the banking system as a whole, % figure 7. the share of non-performing loans in the banking system as a whole, 2018-2023, %. note: compiled by the authors based on data from monetary and credit statistics [25]. 43 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 duration of the war, the registry was disabled, allowing notaries to carry out enforcement. 5. discussion the analysis of the problems of the development of banking agricultural lending made it possible to establish that the development of credit relations between banks and households in ukraine is influenced by various factors in the formation of creditworthy demand for bank loans. the main thing is the financial condition of the borrower, the availability of liquid collateral, the reality of insurance protection, etc. despite high volumes of lending in recent years, the needs of ukrainian households for credit support remain largely unsatisfied. largely, this situation is dictated by the high level of interest rates. the problem of the high cost of loans is due to the following factors: interest rates are forced to cover the risk of non-repayment of loans, including by other borrowers; the cost structure of banks is inefficient due to the fact that interest income acts not only as a compensator for interest expenses, but also as a source of coverage for administrative expenses; there are no tools to mitigate credit risks, which reduces the effectiveness of their management. an analysis of the existing practice of agricultural lending by banks to households in ukraine made it possible to identify the following main approaches. 1) banks strive to work with well-known clients, mainly those served by this bank. as a rule, banks lend to borrowers, subject to the latter’s settlements through accounts opened with the lending bank. 2) banks are gradually developing credit relations with customers, starting with small and simple loans for short periods, gradually increasing the amounts, complicating loan products and increasing the terms of lending. this tactic allows you to better evaluate the client, and check his reliability and creditworthiness. 3) banks quite widely differentiate the terms of lending to customers depending on the type of security, loan terms, customer reliability, lending purposes, and the amount of credit. 4) banks generally provide secured loans. as collateral, liquid inventory items (harvested or future crops), agricultural machinery, and animals are used. 5) banks try to control the financial and economic condition of the borrower during the entire loan period, including the condition of crops, the timeliness of the necessary agro technical measures and the progress of harvesting. 6) banks are trying to use all legal possibilities for the repayment of loans by borrowers, widely involving specialists in the economic security service of the bank and agriculture in this work. speaking about the prospects for consumer lending to households in ukraine, it is necessary to adopt a more flexible policy not only in general lending issues, but also in narrow issues (payment schemes). despite a large number of applications for lending, most of the proposals are not implemented due to the slowness or rather rigid banking conditions for potential borrowers, as well as for loan collateral options. prospects for consumer lending to households in ukraine indicate that the most profitable is the issuance of consumer loans for the acquisition of expensive liquid property. according to these loans, the additional costs of time and money are insignificant compared to the amount of the loan, and the demand for them is quite stable. the period for which the lending is carried out does not allow this property to depreciate during its operation, and the possibility of using the purchased item during the loan period gives borrowers the opportunity to take out insurance in case of an increase in prices for such products. 6. conclusions the ukrainian consumer lending market was analyzed, and the main problems faced by households in the development of this area of banking business were identified. because of the analysis of the development of the consumer lending market for households, the trends characterizing this market were identified, the main ones are:  the dynamics of loans to households demonstrate slow growth rates. according to the national bank of ukraine, if in 2007 credit institutions issued loans to households for uah 115.032 million, then in january 2023 this amount amounted to uah 188.811 million. the absolute value of credit investments increased by more than 1.6 times;  the leading and main role in the household lending market belongs to commercial banks, the number of banks participating in the market is expanding, including through increased regional expansion;  the emergence of foreign competitors in the ukrainian market. thus, in general, household lending develops slowly. among the reasons for this situation is the difficulty in the practical application of legislative regulations aimed at protecting the interests of creditors; high level of interest rates; low level of real income of households and, consequently, low effective demand for mortgage loans; the impossibility of mass provision of long-term mortgage loans due to high risk (interest, credit, legislative, etc.); almost complete exclusion of the state from participation in the formation of a civilized market for housing mortgage 44 research on world agricultural economy | volume 04 | issue 02 | june 2023 lending. as a result of the study, the main directions for increasing the role of banks in the field of consumer and mortgage lending to households were formulated and recommendations were formulated for solving the following problems: development of legislative support for banking activities in household lending; improvement of banking regulation and supervision; expansion of the resource potential of banks based on the optimization of the structure and methods of attracting resources; optimization of the bank’s organizational structure through the creation of structural units necessary for the development of consumer and mortgage lending to households and the procedure for their interaction; improvement of a comprehensive system for assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers— households, including the use of a well-known credit scoring technique, taking into account military conditions and methods for reducing credit risks. let us formulate the main prerequisites for the further development of mortgage and consumer lending to households: stability of the economy, reliability and efficiency of the financial and credit system; high solvency of the population and, most importantly, the active participation of the state as a guarantor of the stability of the entire system of relations during mortgage transactions; compliance with mortgage lending standards; improving the borrower assessment system; development of the mortgage-backed securities market based on international experience; increasing the transparency of the processes of allocating land for development; improving the efficiency of mechanisms and improving the quality of regulation of markets for lending to construction in progress. russian military aggression does not give a chance for the development of mortgage lending. the rapid growth of the us dollar and euro against the national currency (hryvnia) and the uncertainty of their further dynamics, the outflow of deposits from the banking system and the need to repay short-term loans taken by domestic banks abroad led to a liquidity crisis in the banking system of ukraine and the cessation of lending activities of most banks especially in the mortgage industry. those few banks that continue to deal with mortgages have tightened requirements for borrowers and lending conditions. at the same time, due to the unstable economic situation, the decline in real incomes of borrowers and the increase in unemployment, the risks regarding already issued foreign currency mortgage loans have significantly increased. to get out of this situation and reduce the risks of existing mortgage loan portfolios, the following measures are proposed: conversion of foreign currency loans into hryvnia; granting a deferral for the payment of the principal debt for 3-6 months; extension of the term of loan agreements. author contributions an analysis and assessment of the state and development trends of the ukrainian market of consumer and mortgage lending to households were carried out (а.s.). the methodological aspects of the development of the market of consumer and mortgage lending to households in ukraine are considered (g.v.). the indicators of the dynamics of consumer and mortgage loans of households for the period 2007-2023 are given (а.s.; g.v.). the socioeconomic significance of consumer and mortgage bank lending has been studied (g.v.). the main problems in the field of consumer lending are formulated, the resolution of which is necessary for the intensive agricultural activity of households (а.s.). the organizational and economic elements of the mechanism of bank lending to households are systematized and the content of a number of elements is shown based on the characteristics of consumer and mortgage loans (а.s.). the prospects for development and the main directions for improving consumer and mortgage lending to households are determined (g.v.). based on the analysis of the formation and state of the consumer lending market, the trends in its development are determined (g.v.). the key directions of increasing the role of banks in the development of consumer lending to households are determined based on the influence of macroeconomic factors on banking activities (а.s.). practical recommendations are formulated and measures are proposed to improve the mechanism of banking consumer and mortgage lending to households (а.s.; g.v.). funding this research received no external funding. data availability the authors in their article relied on the monetary statistics of the 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