Review of Economics and Development Studies Vol. 5, No 3, 2019 437 Volume and Issues Obtainable at Center for Sustainability Research and Consultancy Review of Economics and Development Studies ISSN:2519-9692 ISSN (E): 2519-9706 Volume 5: No. 3, 2019 Journal homepage: www.publishing.globalcsrc.org/reads Effect of People, Process and Physical Evidence on Satisfaction of Sikh Pilgrims Visiting Pakistan: Moderating Role of Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism 1 Asia Umar Khan, 2 Gohar Zaman, 3 Qadar Bakhsh Baloch 1 Ph.D. Scholar, Department of Management Sciences, Islamia College Peshawar. Pakistan, asia-umar@icp.edu.pk 2 Women University, Swabi. Pakistan, goharshewa@gmail.com 3 Institute of Business Studies and Leadership, Abdul Wali Khan University, Mardan. Pakistan, qbbaloch@awkum.edu.pk ARTICLE DETAILS ABSTRACT History Revised format: 30 June 2019 Available Online: 31 July 2019 The present study was intended to find out the impact of three important components of marketing mix for tourism i.e. People, Process and Physical Evidence on Satisfaction of Sikh Pilgrims visiting Pakistan and the moderating role of Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism in the relationship between the aforementioned independent variables and Pilgrims Satisfaction. The present research is based on the philosophy of positivism and it is descriptive and deductive in approach. Data was collected from a sample of 357 Sikh Pilgrims. Multiple linear regression analysis was carried out to test the hypothesized effect of People, Process and Physical Evidence on satisfaction of Sikh Pilgrims and the moderating effect of Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism. Findings of the study showed that Physical Evidence and People have a significant positive effect whereas Process has a significant negative effect on satisfaction of Sikh Pilgrims. Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism was found to have an insignificant moderating effect on the relationship of Process, People and Physical Evidence with Satisfaction. The study might help uplift the tourism sector of Pakistan and enhance the relationship between people of different religions of the region. © 2019 The authors, under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 Keywords People, Physical Evidence, Process, Satisfaction, Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism, Sikh Pilgrims. JEL Classification: J15, N15 Corresponding author’s email address: asia-umar@icp.edu.pk Recommended citation: Khan, A.U., Zaman, G. and Baloch, Q.B. (2019). Effect of People, Process and Physical Evidence on Satisfaction of Sikh Pilgrims Visiting Pakistan: Moderating Role of Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism. Review of Economics and Development Studies, 5 (3), 437-450 DOI: 10.26710/reads.v5i3.692 1. Introduction In the present globalized world Tourism industry has gained the status of an important industry in terms of its contribution to capital investment as well as foreign exchange earnings. Different investments in this sector lead to the remunerations that benefit the economy and society as well. (Megatef, 2015). Moreover, according to Dolnicar and Ender (2000) it is imperative to explore the market segment of cultural tourists due to the fact that these tourists embody the most lucrative market segment, as is elaborated by Dolnicar (2002) that compared to other groups of tourists, cultural tourists show a tendency of high expenditure per day at the destination, and are also less restricted by the main seasons of summer or winter. It is therefore necessary to study this group of tourists to the much possible extent and provide them the most apt product, because attractiveness of the cultural tourism product of http://www.publishing.globalcsrc.org/reads Review of Economics and Development Studies Vol. 5, No 3, 2019 438 never diminishes. It usually denotes a natural and distinctive selling offer that can hardly be copied by enormous competitors in the worldwide industry of tourism. Despite the fact that Pakistan is blessed with a variety of scenic and cultural tourist attractions, still tourism makes a minor contribution to it economy (Baloch, 2008).Besides weaknesses in marketing of tourism, one of the foremost reasons for this backwardness is the lack of safety and potential risk of terrorist activities perceived by local and foreign tourists. All these play a negative role in tourism promotion. In a study conducted by Sönmez and Graefe (1998) it was found that perceived risk of terrorism directly affects the tourists’ decision of selecting a destination and that tourism figures have fallen a lot due to the increase in terrorism across the globe. The fact is evidenced by a study conducted by Feridun(2011) that not only confirmed the negative causal relationship between terrorism and tourism in Turkey but also concluded that the two variables have a long-rum equilibrium relationship. Neumayer and Pllmper (2018) further conclude from their research findings that terrorism attacks on non-Muslim tourists in any Muslim country result in a decline in the number of tourists’ arrivals not only in that specific country but also in other Muslim countries. A similar effect has been observed in Pakistan after terrorist’s attacks on different cultural events that generated a fright among foreign tourists. Tension and insecure feelings have been emerged among the tourists that repel them from visiting Pakistan. The present study therefore focuses on the moderating effect of personal perceived risk of terrorism on the impact of cultural tourism marketing mix on Sikh Pilgrims’ Satisfaction. 2. Literature Review 2.1. Cultural tourism Cultural tourism is a travel of individuals, based on the purpose to get knowledge about a country’s culture. For this purpose a cultural tourist may aim to study arts, attend festivals, visit historical sites and offer a pilgrimage etc. Cultural tourism is therefore destined at museums, temples, cultural musical programs, dramas, arts and religious sites etc. (Tighe, 1991; The World Tourism Organization, 1993; Boyd, 2002 ; Leslie & Sigala, 2005). 2.2 Religious Tourism Religious tourism is a distinctive form of cultural tourism, in which the aim of a tourist is to perform religious activities like praying, venerating, exploring religious places etc. by followers of a religion (Raj & Morpeth, 2007). However, Blackwell (2007) explains that religious tourism may involve visiting religious sights for religious as well as non-religious motives also. 2.3 Religious Tourism in Pakistan The land of Pakistan has a rich history of different religions that have left their impressions in the form of different historical and religious cultural sites. These sites include the remains of Buddhism, Hinduism, Islam and Sikhism etc. (Pak Tourism, n.d.). It has an opulent and colorful culture inclding different religious carnivals and customs that depict a reflection of Middle Eastern, Indian and Central Asian cultures. A variety of religious events is held in Pakistan which is an important source of fascination for most people belonging to Buddhism, Islam, Hinduism, Sikhism and others (Hassan, 2016). 2.4 Religious Tourism Destinations of Pakistan: Nankana Sahib, Lahore and Gurdwara Panja Sahib, Hassanabdal Sikh Yatris (followers of Sikhism) have great religious affection for both of these religious sites due to their association with the founder of Sikhism, Guru Nanak. Sikh Yatris show great respect for Nankana Sahib. Thousands of Sikh pilgrims long for and most of them offer pilgrimage to Gurdwaras in Nankana Sahib and Hasanabdal every year (Roche, 2016). The village of Talwandi, at present famous as Nankana Sahib is the birth place of Guru Nanak where he was born in 1469 AD (Masih, 2000). The religious importance of Nankana Sahib is endorsed by the presence of nine gurdwaras in it. Each gurdwara is associated with specific happenings that came about in Guru Nanak’s life (“5 Most Visited”, 2014). The site of Hasan Abdal is sacred for Sikhs owing to the presence of a rock that has the hand impression of Guru Nanak which the legend holds to be inscribed when Guru Nanak was trying to stop a tumbling rock with bare hand. Later on, a Gurdwara was built at the exact spot (Hussain, 2013). Review of Economics and Development Studies Vol. 5, No 3, 2019 439 2.5 Independent, Dependent and Moderating Variables 2.5.1 People It comprises of all the staff with whom the tourists might come across and have contact with during their visits. A tourist might get influenced by the behavior of the local people for instance, residents, personnel at various retail outlets, restaurants, hotels, workers and tour guides etc. Among all these places of interactions (points where tourist and employee may interact) needs to be properly organized and managed for the sake of creating a good image in the minds of the customers (Kotler, Bowen & Makens, 2008). 2.5.2 Physical Evidence It involves ambience and the surrounding environment with amenities that a tourist might experience at a destination. Physical evidence is one of the staple constituents of tourism marketing mix. It comprises of the overall design and outlook of the site (Booms & Bitner, 1981; Kumar, 2010). Now, it’s imperative that the environment should be user friendly and attractive where visitors and tourists are ensured to be safe and secure (Al-Debi & Mustafa, 2014). A well designed surrounding helps in proper positioning of the product in tourists’ mind. A well lit room, well dressed staff, well managed parking areas and neat and tidy rooms communicate a good impression of the site (Kotler, Bowen & Makens, 2008). 2.5.3 Process In tourism marketing, Process basically refers to the chain of activities that run from producer to the end user. Thus, effective and efficient coordination of these process elements is imperative for effective marketing management. Raybould (2009) opines that a process is directed at creating and delivering value to a consumer. It begins from a consumer searching for product related info. Thus, the above explanation means that the process in marketing for tourism consists of the value chain activities that are directed at delivering value to the visitor. Yilmaz and Bititci (2006) describe the components of tourism value chain as: i) winning of order, ii)pre-delivery, iii)delivery and iv)post-delivery stages. The components of pre-delivery encompass the tour operatives, travel representatives; delivery incorporates inbound and outbound logistics, lodging, amusement services; whereas post-delivery consists of all the services for the purpose of strong customer relationship building. Figure: 1. Conceptual Framework 2.5.4 Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism Risk of Terrorism is defined by Willis et.al. (2006) as the possibility or fear that particular forms of damage- causing assaults will occur at particular targets within specified time periods. Therefore, personal perceived risk of terrorism can be defined as an individual’s personal fear that some kind of damage can be happen to him or her at a specific place and time. Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism was measured by an adopted scale of a study conducted by Nellis (2009) and consisted of five items. Review of Economics and Development Studies Vol. 5, No 3, 2019 440 2.6.5 Tourist Satisfaction According to Lovelock, Patterson and Walker (2001) the level of tourist’s satisfaction of a can be gauged by the difference amid his/her expectations and actual experience obtained post product consumption. Thus, in the present study the satisfaction of Sikh pilgrims was measured by using Oliver (1980) “Theory of Expectation- Confirmation.” According to this theory, all consumers associate some form of expectation about the product/service before purchase. Greater is the level of experience than expectations, higher is the satisfaction and vice versa. Higher satisfaction would result in good word of mouth and repurchase intention of customer. 3. Hypotheses The hypotheses for the study are stated as following; H1: The variable People has a significant effect on Religious tourist satisfaction. H2: The variable Physical Evidence has a significant effect on Religious tourist satisfaction. H3: The variable Process has a significant effect on Religious tourist satisfaction. H4: The Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism has a significant moderating effect on the relationship between People and Religious tourist satisfaction. H5: The Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism has a significant moderating effect on the relationship between Physical Evidence and Religious tourist satisfaction. H6: The Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism has a significant moderating effect on the relationship between Process and Religious tourist satisfaction. 4. Methodology for the study The study is based on the philosophy of positivism and it is descriptive and deductive in approach. According to Roche (2016) Government of Pakistan issued 3,316 visas to Sikh pilgrims in the year 2016, to offer annual pilgrimage. Therefore, the total population of Sikh Pilgrims/religious tourists was 3,316 Sikh Pilgrims. 4.1 Sample Size Determination Sample size was calculated by using Yamani (1967) who has introduced a very easy formula for sample size calculation. By supposing a 95% confidence level, P = 0.05, N = Population size, n = Sample size, and e = level of accuracy. And inserting these values into formula, resulting sample size is; Table: 1. Sample Size Determination After calculation, the resulting sample size of Religious Tourists/Sikh Pilgrims was 357. 4.2 Discussion on Items Measurement of the above mentioned factors of tourism marketing mix i.e. Physical evidence, People, Process, Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism was done through a list of items found after a comprehensive literature review. All items except for demographic characteristics were measured on a five point Likert scale, that ranged from 1 = “Strongly disagree” to 5 = “Strongly agree”. 5. Analysis and Findings 5.1 Reliability of the study Cronbach’s Alpha or Coefficient Alpha is a widely used consistency index which according to Gaur & Gaur (2009) is the most reliable tool for measuring reliability of the scale. George and Malleery (2003); (Cooper, D. R., & Schindler, P. 2003) and Hair et al. (2006) suggest the value of alpha greater than 0.60 as being acceptable. Review of Economics and Development Studies Vol. 5, No 3, 2019 441 Table 2: Results of Reliability Test of Study (Cronbach’s Alpha) The results of reliability test for the pilot-study of current research confirmed the consistency of items in the instrument (questionnaire).The reliability coefficient alpha values for all of the four variables namely; People, Physical Evidence, Process, Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism and Satisfaction were higher than (0.6) level of acceptability. Hence, the results suggested that the questionnaire was a reliable instrument for measurement. 5.2 Descriptive Statistics The table.3. shows the results of the descriptive statistics and shows the total number of responding Pilgrims, the minimum values of responses, the maximum values of responses, the mean values and the standard deviation of the present research study. These values describe the features of data collected from the selected sample of Sikh Pilgrims. The results showed that the dependent variable i.e. Satisfaction has a Minimum value of 1.25 and a maximum value of 3.75 with a mean value of 2.6968 and standard deviation 0.69633. Physical Evidence has a minimum value of 1.20 and a maximum value of 2.80, the mean value of the construct Physical Evidence is 2.0728 and SD is 0.38140. The Minimum value of Process is 1.00 with Maximum value of 3.00, Mean is 2.0754and SD is 0.39445. The independent variable People has the smallest value of 1.00 with Max-value of 3.25, Mean is 2.1912 and SD =0.45491. Personal Perceived risk has Min-value of 1.00, Max-value is 5.00, Mean is 2.0985 and SD= 1.1366. 5.3 Exploratory and Confirmatory Factor Analysis: Assumptions Statistics Factor analysis that consists of exploratory and confirmatory analysis was measured. Primarily the researcher used exploratory factor analysis by using Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) and Bartlet test. Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Test i.e.KMO is used to measure the appropriateness of data for Factor Analysis. It measures the adequacy of sample for each variable in the model and also for the complete model. Table 4: Assumptions Statistics for Factor Analysis Review of Economics and Development Studies Vol. 5, No 3, 2019 442 The data is considered to be factorable provided the KMO measure of sampling adequacy is larger than 0.60. If the value of KMO is less than 0.50 it means that the sample size is inadequate. From the above mentioned table it is evident that the values of KMO are above the threshold values which indicate that there is no sample issue. The purpose of Bartlett’s test of sphericity is to test that there is at least one significant correlation b/w two of items somewhere. In this test it is also checked that its p-value is labeled sig in SPSS which should be below .001. The P- values in the above table are less than .001 which depict that the data set is accurate. 5.4 Confirmatory factor analysis and Structure Equation Modeling Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was carried out by using Structural Equation Model (SEM) to measure the construct validity and model fitness. Seven fit indices were used to test the model fitness, that included chi- square/degree of freedom(X²/df), Goodness of Fit Index (GFI) , Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index (AGFI), Root Mean Error of Residuals (RMSR), Root Means Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA), Comparative Fit Index (CFI) and Normed Fit Index (NFI). Table 5: Thresh-hold Values for Model Fitness Measures/Fit Indices Source: Usluel, Askar, and Bas (2008) A number of models are used in structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to show a relationship amongst observed variables in order to test a hypothesized theoretical model. (Schumacker & Lomax, 2010). In other words, SEM is used for confirming a theoretical model in which hypotheses are made that the observed variables explain the constructs and define relationship amongst these constructs. In this method, a theoretical model is generated from the sample data and it is then tested whether the observed data of sample supports the hypothesised model or not. In this section each of the construct for confirmatory factor analysis is tested in order to conclude that the data fits the measurement and structural model. The underlying model represents the confirmatory factor analysis(CFA) and the seven fit indices for the factor model of People. Figure 2: Factor Model of People Review of Economics and Development Studies Vol. 5, No 3, 2019 443 Table 6: Fit Indices Measures for Factor Model “People” The values of NFI, AGFI, RMSEA, GFI, RMSR, CFI and X2/df in the above table depict that these were all among the desired range which clearly demonstrate that the model is good and fit. Modification indices were also done and covariance drawn where needed. All values show the overall good fit of the model. Figure 3: Factor Model of Process Table 7: Fit Indices Measures for Factor Model “Process”. The values of NFI, AGFI, RMSEA, GFI, RMSR, CFI and X2/df in the above table depict that these were all among the desired range which clearly demonstrate that the model is good and fit. Modification indices were also done and covariance drawn where needed. All values show the overall good fit of the model. Following model represents the CFA and the seven fit indices measures for the factor model of Physical Evidence. Figure 4: Factor Model of Physical Evidence Table 8: Fit Indices Measures for Factor Model “Physical Evidence” The values of NFI, AGFI, RMSEA, GFI, RMSR, CFI and X2/df in the above table depict that these were all among the desired range which clearly demonstrate that the model is good and fit. Modification indices were also done and covariance drawn where needed. All values show that the overall model is good and fit. Review of Economics and Development Studies Vol. 5, No 3, 2019 444 The underlying model represents the confirmatory factor analysis and the seven Fit Indices for the factor model of Satisfaction. Figure 5: Factor Model of Satisfaction Table 9: Fit Indices Measures for the Factor Model “Satisfaction” The values of NFI, AGFI, RMSEA, GFI, RMSR, CFI and X2/df in the above table depict that these were all among the desired range which clearly demonstrate that the model is good fit. The underlying model represents the CFA and the seven Fit Indices for the overall factor model of four factors Physical Evidence, People, Process and Satisfaction. Figure 6: Four Factor Model (People, Physical Evidence, Process and Satisfaction) Table 10: Fit Indices for the Overall Factors Model The values of NFI, AGFI, RMSEA, GFI, RMSR, CFI and X2/df in the above table depict that these were all among the desired range which clearly demonstrate that the model is good fit. Following model represents the confirmatory factor analysis and the seven fit indices for the overall factor model of Personal perceived Risk of Terrorism. Review of Economics and Development Studies Vol. 5, No 3, 2019 445 Figure 7: Factor Model of Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism (Moderating Variable) Table 11: Fit Indices Measures for Factor Model “Perceived Risk of Terrorism”. The values of NFI, AGFI, RMSEA, GFI, RMSR, CFI and X2/df in the above table depict that these were all among the desired range which clearly demonstrate that the model is good fit. 5.5 Multiple linear regression analysis Multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to test the hypothesized relationships among independent (People, Physical Evidence, Process), moderating (Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism) and dependent (Tourist satisfaction) variable. Table 12: Regression Weights: Group number 1 - Default model (Sikh Pilgrims) Regression coefficient(R)=0.821, Coefficient of determination(R2)=0.674, F Statistics=103.046, Sig (P)< 0.05 The resulting value of coefficient of regression (R) =0.821(82.1%) depicts that a strong relationship exists between dependent and independent variables. The resulting value of coefficient of determination (R2)= 0.674 (67.4%) depicts that 67.4% variation in Sikh Pilgrims satisfaction (dependent variable) is explained by People, Physical Evidence and Process (independent variables). The values of F = 103.406 and the significance value P <0.05 show that over all the regression model is valid, fit and statistically significant. Based on statistical values, “People” has a significant and positive effect on tourist satisfaction with β = 0.395, t = 18.959, p<.05), “Physical evidence” has a significant and positive effect on tourist satisfaction with β =0.824, t = 39.520, p>.05) and “Process” has a significant and negative effect on tourist satisfaction with β = -0.096, t = -4.599, p<.05 respectively. Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism has an insignificant negative effect on the relationship between People and tourist satisfaction with β = -0.081, t = -.021, p>.05, insignificant negative effect on the relationship between Physical Evidence and tourist satisfaction with β = -.104, t = -.689 p>.05, and an insignificant negative effect on the relationship between Process and tourist satisfaction with β = -0.372, t = -.022, p>.05. 5.6 Findings of Multiple Regression Analysis The variable “people” has a significant positive effect on Pilgrim’s satisfaction. The finding was consistent with the former study of (Al Muala & Qurneh, 2012; Chung& Petrick, 2012; Aziri & Nedelea, 2013). The “physical evidence” has a significant negative effect on Pilgrim’s satisfaction. The findings was consistent with the earlier Review of Economics and Development Studies Vol. 5, No 3, 2019 446 study of (Al-Debi and Mustafa, 2014; Iqbal, 2016) and the process has a significant negative effect on Pilgrim’s satisfaction. The finding was consistent with the earlier study of (Yang, 2010; Al Muala & Qurneh, 2012; Iqbal, 2016; Martin, 2015; Yang, 2010) respectively. Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism has an insignificant negative moderating effect on the relationship between People, Physical Evidence, and Process and tourist satisfaction. Table 13: Results of Multiple regression analysis of Sikh Pilgrims 6. Discussion and Conclusion The process of tourism has shown a negative effect on satisfaction of Sikh Pilgrims. Therefore the process should be made easy to help tourists. Information about different cultural sites should be provided at different counter points like travel agencies, airports, and hotels. According to Kang et al. (2003), one of the largest market segment of tourism which is often overlooked is “visiting friends and relatives” (VFR) market. This segment has shown the highest profitability and highest expenditures per person on shopping. Therefore, in order to promote VFR, public and private tourism agencies should provide enough facilities at special events to Sikh pilgrims and other tourists. Given that security is ensured, Sikh pilgrims and other Indians should be given visa relaxations so that they may visit their relatives and friends in different cities of Pakistan and contribute to Pakistan’s economy. Local residents and guides should be provided enough knowledge about different sites so that they may forward it to VFR tourists to increase their interest in different sites. The results showed that the variable people has a significant positive effect on tourist satisfaction. However, it can be more enhanced by providing special trainings to the tour guides, waiters and managers at hotels and restaurants, salesmen and all the other staff that may come in contact to foreign tourists. According to Kotler, Bowen and Makens (2008) and Jeon and Choi (2012), satisfied employees lead to satisfied customers. It implies that in order to keep the tourists satisfied, all the related staff should be considered as an asset and must be taken care of. Foreign and private investors should be encouraged for franchises and joint ventures in air services, hotels etc. Investment in air services will make it easy to access the remote areas of Pakistan with more comfort whereas, investment in hotels and theme parks along cultural sites would increase the interest of tourists of every age in cultural sites. Moreover, foreign investors of different religions like Sikhism, Buddhism, Hinduism and Christians should be encouraged for maintenance and beautification of their religious cultural sites. The insignificant moderating effect of Personal Perceived Risk of Terrorism on the relationship between each of independent variable i.e. People, Physical Evidence and Process with Tourists satisfaction shows that religious tourists i.e. Sikh Pilgrims are not bothered by the terrorism risk due to their strong affection for their religious sites. Therefore, process should be made easier for them to increase tourists inflow into the country. 7. Future Research Directions This research is cross-sectional in its nature; longitudinal research should also be conducted to detect any positive or negative changes in tourism marketing of Pakistan. A qualitative study that may involve policy makers, government officials and tourists could also be conducted. The present study was confined to one kind of religious tourists i.e. Sikh Pilgrims. Similar studies should be conducted involving other religious tourists like Buddhists, Hindus and others who have their religious sites located in Pakistan. Similar studies can be carried out by considering the role of any other mediator or moderator variable in the model. Review of Economics and Development Studies Vol. 5, No 3, 2019 447 8. Theoretical and Contextual Contribution of the Study An in-depth study of the marketing mix for tourism was carried out and constructs was designed for the three marketing mix factors. Moreover, a conceptual model was developed that involved the role of personal perceived risk of terrorism as a moderator which was, to the best of knowledge of researcher, was not used earlier in the marketing mix model. Since far, no study was found on marketing mix of tourism and especially religious tourism in the context of Pakistan. 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