RUHUNA JOURNAL OF SCIENCE Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 eISSN: 2536-8400 Faculty of Science http://doi.org/10.4038/rjs.v13i1.112 University of Ruhuna Faculty of Science, University of Ruhuna Sri Lanka 14 Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Manickavasagar Kayanan1,2 and Pushpakanthie Wijekoon3 1Postgraduate Institute of Science, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka 2 Department of Physical Science, University of Vavuniya, Vavuniya, Sri Lanka 3 Department of Statistics and Computer Science, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka *Correspondence: mgayanan@vau.jfn.ac.lk; ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2662-4383 Received: 29th July 2021; Revised: 21st April 2022; Accepted: 17th May 2022 Abstract The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) is used to tackle both the multicollinearity issue and the variable selection concurrently in the linear regression model. The Least Angle Regression (LARS) algorithm has been used widely to produce LASSO solutions. However, this algorithm is unreliable when high multicollinearity exists among regressor variables. One solution to improve the estimation of regression parameters when multicollinearity exists is adding preliminary information about the regression coefficient to the model as either exact linear restrictions or stochastic linear restrictions. Based on this solution, this article proposed a generalized version of the stochastic restricted LARS algorithm, which combines LASSO with existing stochastic restricted estimators. Further, we examined the performance of the proposed algorithm by employing a Monte Carlo simulation study and a numerical example. Keywords: LASSO, LARS, Stochastic Linear Restrictions. 1 Introduction The biased estimators such as Ridge Estimator (RE) (Hoerl and Kennard 1970), Almost Unbiased Ridge Estimator (AURE) (Singh et al. 1986), Liu Estimator (LE) (Liu 1993), Almost Unbiased Liu Estimator (AULE) (Akdeniz and Kaรงiranlar 1995), Principle Component Regression Estimator (PCRE) (Massy 1965), r-k class estimator (Baye and Parker 1984), r-d class estimator (Kaรงiranlar and Sakallฤฑoฤlu 2001) and Sample Information Optimal Estimator (SIOE) (Kayanan and Wijekoon 2019) have been widely used in literature to resolve multicollinearity issue in the linear regression model. However, these estimators yield high bias when the number of explanatory variables is high, and they do not consider about irrelevant variables while fitting models. For high dimensional data, having many variables in the model and multicollinearity are major issues. To tackle these matters, Tibshirani (1996) introduced Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). The LASSO https://rjs.ruh.ac.lk/index.php/rjs/index https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ mailto:mgayanan@vau.jfn.ac.lk https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2662-4383 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2662-4383 M. Kayanan and P. Wijekoon Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Ruhuna Journal of Science Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 15 is a shrinkage method that was originally used for regularization and variable selection in the linear regression model. The Least Angle Regression (LARS) (Efron et al. 2004) algorithm has been used to obtain the estimates of LASSO. Zou and Hastie (2005) have shown that the LASSO is unsteady when severe multicollinearity exists between the explanatory variables. Therefore, they suggested Elastic Net (ENet) estimator by combining LASSO and RE as a solution for this issue. Furthermore, they proposed LARS-EN algorithm to attain ENet solutions, which is a modified version of the LARS algorithm. Besides, Kayanan and Wijekoon (2020b) proposed a generalized version of LARS (GLARS) algorithm to combine LASSO with RE and the other biased estimators based on sample information such as AURE, LE, AULE, PCRE, r-k class estimator, and r-d class estimator. Finally, they have shown that the GLARS algorithm performs well when it combines LASSO with r-k class and r-d class estimators. According to literature, the parameter estimation can be strengthened if prior knowledge about the regression coefficient is applied. The prior information on regression coefficients can be defined in the form of exact linear restrictions or stochastic linear restrictions. Many researchers proposed stochastic restricted estimators such as Mixed Regression Estimator (MRE) (Theil and Goldberger 1961) Stochastic Restricted Ridge Estimator (SRRE) (Li and Yang 2010), Stochastic Restricted Almost Unbiased Ridge Estimator (SRAURE) (Jibo and Hu 2014), Stochastic Restricted Liu Estimator (SRLE) (Hubert and Wijekoon 2006), Stochastic Restricted Almost Unbiased Liu Estimator (SRAULE) (Jibo and Hu 2014), Stochastic Restricted Principle Component Regression Estimator (SRPCRE) (He and Wu 2014), Stochastic Restricted r-k class estimator (SRrk) (Jibo 2014), Stochastic Restricted r-d class estimator (SRrd) (Jibo 2014), and Stochastic Restricted Optimal Estimator (SROE) (Kayanan and Wijekoon 2019) to incorporate prior information to the regression coefficient. Stochastic restricted estimators also have the same issue as biased estimators when the linear regression model contains numerous predictors. To handle this problem, Kayanan and Wijekoon (2020a) proposed a stochastic restricted LARS (SRLARS) algorithm to combine LASSO and MRE, and showed the superiority of the SRLARS over LARS algorithm. This article proposes a generalized version of the stochastic restricted LARS algorithm, namely SRGLARS, to combine LASSO with other stochastic restricted estimators. The prediction performance of the SRGLARS algorithm was examined by employing a Monte-Carlo simulation and using a real-world example in the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) criterion. 2 Model Specification and the Estimators Consider the linear regression model ๐ = ๐ฟ๐ท + ๐บ, (2.1) where ๐ฟ is ๐ ร ๐ matrix of explanatory variables, ๐ท be the ๐ ร 1 vector of unknown coefficients, and ๐บ be the ๐ ร 1 vector of disturbances such that ๐บ โผ ๐ (0,๐2 ๐ฐ). M. Kayanan and P. Wijekoon Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Ruhuna Journal of Science Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 16 Assume that there exists prior information on ฮฒ, which may be expressed as a stochastic linear restriction, as (Theil & Goldberger, 1961) ๐ = ๐น๐ท + ๐, (2.2) where ฯ be the ๐ ร 1 vector, ๐น be the ๐ ร ๐ matrix with rank ๐, ๐ be the ๐ ร 1 vector of disturbances, such that ๐ โผ ๐ (0,๐2๐พ ), ๐พ is positive definite, and ๐ธ(๐๐บโฒ) = 0. To make the variable selection and handle multicollinearity issue by incorporating prior information defined in model (2.2), Kayanan and Wijekoon (2020a) suggested Stochastic Restricted LASSO Type Estimator (SRLASSO) for model (2.1) as ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐๐ ๐ฟ๐ด๐๐๐ = argmin ๐ท {(๐ โ ๐ฟ๐ท)โฒ(๐ โ ๐ฟ๐ท)} subject to โ |๐ฝ๐| ๐ ๐=1 โค ๐ก and ๐น๐ท = ๐ โ ๐, (2.3) where ๐ก > 0 is a turning parameter. Further, Kayanan and Wijekoon (2020a) proposed Stochastic Restricted LARS (SRLARS) algorithm to find the SRLASSO estimates. Note that SRLARS combines LASSO and MRE to find the estimates. To improve the SRLARS solutions, this article proposes a generalized version of SRLARS (SRGLARS) to combine LASSO with other stochastic restricted estimators such as SRRE, SRAURE, SRLE, SRAULE, SRPCRE, SRrk, SRrd and SROE. Kayanan and Wijekoon (2018, 2019) proposed a generalized form to express the estimators MRE, SRRE, SRAURE, SRLE, SRAULE, SRPCRE, SRrk, SRrd, and SROE as ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐บ = ๐ฎ(๐ฟ โฒ๐ฟ + ๐นโฒ๐พโ๐๐น)โ๐ (๐ฟโฒ๐ + ๐นโฒ๐พโ๐๐), (2.4) where ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐บ = { ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐๐ ๐ธ if ๐ฎ = ๐ฐ ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐๐ ๐ ๐ธ if ๐ฎ = (๐ฟ โฒ๐ฟ + ๐๐ฐ)โ1๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐๐ ๐ด๐๐ ๐ธ if ๐ฎ = (๐ฐ โ ๐ 2(๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐๐ฐ)โ2) ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐๐ ๐ฟ๐ธ if ๐ฎ = (๐ฟ โฒ๐ฟ + ๐ฐ)โ1(๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐๐ฐ) ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐๐ ๐ด๐๐ฟ๐ธ if ๐ฎ = (๐ฐ โ (1 โ ๐) 2(๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐ฐ)โ2) ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐๐ ๐๐ถ๐ ๐ธ if ๐ฎ = ๐ปโ๐ปโ โฒ ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐๐ ๐๐ if ๐ฎ = ๐ปโ๐ปโ โฒ (๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐๐ฐ)โ1๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐๐ ๐๐ if ๐ฎ = ๐ปโ๐ปโ โฒ (๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐ฐ)โ1(๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐๐ฐ) ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐๐ ๐๐ธ if ๐ฎ = ๐ทโ๐ทโ โฒ(๐2(๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ)โ๐ + ๐ทโ๐ทโ โฒ) โ1 Note that ๐ > 0 and 0 < ๐ < 1 are the shrinkage/regularization parameters, ๐ฐ is the ๐ ร ๐ identity matrix, ๐ปโ = (๐ก1, ๐ก2. . . ๐กโ)โฒ is the first โ columns of the eigenvectors of ๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ, and ๐ทโ is the normalized eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of ๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ. M. Kayanan and P. Wijekoon Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Ruhuna Journal of Science Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 17 3 SRGLARS Algorithm Based on Kayanan and Wijekoon (2021a) and equation (2.4), the SRGLARS algorithm for model (2.1) is outlined below: Algorithm 1: SRGLARS 1: Standardize ๐ฟ to have a mean zero with a standard deviation of one, and center the ๐ to have a mean zero. 2: Start with all estimates of the coefficients ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ = 0 with the residuals ๐ = ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ and ๐ = ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ. 3: Find the predictor ๐ฟ๐ most correlated with ๐; ๐ = 1,2, . . . ,๐. 4: Move the estimate of ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐ from 0 towards the ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐บ direction until some other predictor ๐ฟ๐ has as large a correlation with the current residual as ๐ฟ๐ does. 5: Move ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐ and ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐ in the direction defined by their joint ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐บ direction of the current residual on (๐ฟ๐,๐ฟ๐), until some other predictor ๐ฟ๐ eventually earns its way into the active set. 6: If a non-zero coefficient hits zero, drop its variable from the active set of variables and recomputed the current joint ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐บ direction. 7: Repeat the steps 5 and 6 until SRGLARS conditions attained. The mathematical details of the SRLARS algorithm are as follows: Let us assume that the estimates of the coefficients ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ and residuals ๐ and ๐ are (๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ) 0 = [(๐ฝ1)0, (๐ฝ2)0,โฆ,(๐ฝ๐)0 ] โฒ = ๐, ๐0 = ๐ and ๐0 = ๐. Find the predictor (๐๐)1 most correlated with ๐0. (๐๐)1 = max ๐ |๐ถ๐๐(๐๐,๐0)|; ๐ โ (1,2,โฆ,๐) (3.1) Then, increase the estimate of respective regression coefficient (๐ฝ๐)1 from 0 unto any other predictor (๐๐)2 has a high correlation with ๐1 as (๐๐)1 does. At this stage, SRGLARS moves in the equiangular direction between (๐๐)1 and (๐๐)2 rather than proceeding the path based on (๐๐)1. Similarly, in ๐๐กโ run, the variable (๐๐)1 eventually acquires its path in the active set, and then SRGLARS moves in the equiangular direction among (๐ฟ)๐ = [(๐๐)1 , (๐๐)2 ,โฆ,(๐๐)๐ ] โฒ . Proceed to add variables to the active set in this way, running in the path established by the least angle direction. During this process, (๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ) ๐ = [(๐ฝ๐)1 ,(๐ฝ๐)2 ,โฆ,(๐ฝ๐)๐ ] โฒ is updating using the following formula: (๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ) ๐ = (๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ) ๐โ1 + ๐ผ๐๐๐, (3.2) M. Kayanan and P. Wijekoon Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Ruhuna Journal of Science Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 18 where ๐ผ๐ โ [0,1] which signifies how long the estimate runs in the path before another predictor enters the model and the path turns anew, and ๐๐ is the equiangular vector. The path vector ๐๐ is computed using the formula given below based on the generalized form defined in equation (2.4): ๐๐ = ๐ฎ๐ธ((๐ฌ)๐ โฒ(๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐นโฒ๐พโ๐๐น)(๐ฌ)๐) โ๐(๐ฌ)๐ โฒ(๐ฟโฒ๐๐โ๐ + ๐นโฒ๐พ โ๐๐๐โ๐), (3.3) where (๐ฌ)๐ = [(๐๐)1 ,(๐๐)2 ,โฆ ,(๐๐)๐ ], and (๐๐)๐ be the ๐ th standard unit vector in ๐ ๐, which has the record of selected variables in every succeeding steps, and ๐ฎ๐ธ is a generalized matrix that can be changed by respective expressions for any of stochastic restricted estimators of our interest as outlined in Table 1. Then, ๐ผ๐ be calculated as follows: ๐ผ๐ = min {๐ผ๐ +,๐ผ๐ โ,๐ผ๐ โ}, (3.4) where ๐ผ๐ ยฑ = ๐ถ๐๐((๐๐)๐ ,๐๐โ๐)ยฑ๐ถ๐๐(๐๐,๐๐โ๐) ๐ถ๐๐((๐๐)๐ ,๐๐โ๐)ยฑ๐ถ๐๐(๐๐,(๐ฟ)๐๐๐) (3.5) for any ๐ such that (๐ฝ๐)๐โ1 = 0, and ๐ผ๐ โ = โ (๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ) ๐โ1 ๐๐ (3.6) for any ๐ such that (๐ฝ๐)๐โ1 โ 0. If ๐ผ๐ = ๐ผ๐ โ, then (๐ฌ)๐ is reformed by deleting the column ๐๐ from (๐ฌ)๐โ๐. Then ๐๐ and ๐๐ can be calculated as ๐๐ = ๐๐โ๐ โ ๐ผ๐(๐ฟ)๐๐๐ and (3.7) ๐๐ = ๐๐โ๐ โ ๐ผ๐(๐น)๐๐๐, (3.8) where (๐น)๐ = [(๐น๐)1 ,(๐น๐)2 ,โฆ,(๐น๐)๐ ]. Then proceed to the next step where (๐)๐+1 is the value of ๐ such that ๐ผ๐ = ๐ผ๐ +or ๐ผ๐ = ๐ผ๐ โ or ๐ผ๐ = ๐ผ๐ โ . Proceed with the algorithm until๐ผ๐ = 1. Table 1: ๐บ๐ธ of the estimators for SRGLARS. Estimators ๐ฎ๐ธ MRE (๐ฌ)๐ SRRE (๐ฌ)๐((๐ฌ)๐ โฒ (๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐๐ฐ)(๐ฌ)๐) โ1(๐ฌ)๐ โฒ ๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ(๐ฌ)๐ SRAURE (๐ฌ)๐(๐ฐ๐๐ธ โ ๐ 2((๐ฌ)๐ โฒ (๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐๐ฐ)(๐ฌ)๐) โ2) SRLE (๐ฌ)๐((๐ฌ)๐ โฒ (๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐ฐ)(๐ฌ)๐) โ1(๐ฌ)๐ โฒ (๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐๐ฐ)(๐ฌ)๐ SRAULE (๐ฌ)๐(๐ฐ๐๐ธ โ (1 โ ๐) 2((๐ฌ)๐ โฒ (๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐ฐ)(๐ฌ)๐) โ2) SRPCRE ๐ปโ๐ธ๐ปโ๐ธ โฒ (๐ฌ)๐ SRrk ๐ปโ๐ธ๐ปโ๐ธ โฒ (๐ฌ)๐((๐ฌ)๐ โฒ (๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐๐ฐ)(๐ฌ)๐) โ1(๐ฌ)๐ โฒ ๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ(๐ฌ)๐ SRrd ๐ปโ๐ธ๐ปโ๐ธ โฒ (๐ฌ)๐((๐ฌ)๐ โฒ (๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐ฐ)(๐ฌ)๐) โ1(๐ฌ)๐ โฒ (๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ + ๐๐ฐ)(๐ฌ)๐ SROE (๐ฌ)๐((๐ฌ)๐ โฒ ๐ทโ๐ทโ โฒ(๐ฌ)๐(๐ 2((๐ฌ)๐ โฒ ๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ(๐ฌ)๐) โ๐ + (๐ฌ)๐ โฒ ๐ทโ๐ทโ โฒ(๐ฌ)๐) โ1 M. Kayanan and P. Wijekoon Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Ruhuna Journal of Science Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 19 In Table 1, ๐ฐ๐๐ธ is the ๐๐ธ ร ๐๐ธ identity matrix, ๐๐ธ is the amount of selected variables in each succeeding step, and ๐ปโ๐ธ = (๐ก1, ๐ก2. . . ๐กโ๐ธ) is the first โ๐ธ column of the standardized eigenvectors of (๐ฌ)๐ โฒ ๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ(๐ฌ)๐. We can apply SRGLARS to consolidate LASSO and any of the stochastic restricted estimators listed in Table 1. The suitable value of regularization parameter ๐ or ๐ of the proposed algorithms can be chosen by 10-fold cross-validation for every ๐ก as outlined in Appendix C. We can get a separate algorithm for each stochastic restricted estimator by referring SRGLARS as LARS-MRE, LARS-SRRE, LARS-SRAURE, LARS-SRLE, LARS- SRAULE, LARS-SRPCRE, LARS-SRrk, LARS-SRrd, and LARS-SROE when GE equals to the corresponding expression of MRE, SRRE, SRAURE, SRLE, SRAULE, SRPCRE, SRrk, SRrd, and SROE, respectively. 4 Discussion The performance of SRGLARS algorithm by considering different combinations of LASSO and stochastic restricted estimators were examined using RMSE criterion, which is the expected prediction error of the algorithm for each estimator, and is defined as ๐ ๐๐๐ธ(๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ) = โ 1 ๐โ (๐โ โ ๐ฟโ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ) โฒ (๐โ โ ๐ฟโ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ), (4.1) where (๐โ,๐ฟโ) are the new observations, ๐โ is the size of new observations, and ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ is the estimated value of ๐ท by the corresponding algorithm. Note that we cannot provide theoretical conditions for the superiority of particular algorithms in variable selection methods. Therefore, we use a Monte Carlo simulation and a real-world example to compare the SRGLARS algorithms. 4.1 Simulation study We used the following formula to generate the explanatory variables based on McDonald and Galarneau (1975): ๐ฅ๐,๐ = โ(1 โ ๐ 2)๐ง๐,๐ + ๐๐ง๐,๐+1; ๐ = 1,2, . . . ,๐. ๐ = 1,2, . . . ,๐. (4.2) where ๐ง๐,๐ is an independent standard normal pseudo-random number, and ๐ is the correlation among any two explanatory variables. In this study, we have used 100 observations with 20 explanatory variables, in which 70 observations were used to fit the model and 30 observations were used to compute the RMSE. A dependent variable is generated by using the following equation, ๐ฆ๐ = ๐ฝ1๐ฅ๐,1 + ๐ฝ2๐ฅ๐,2 + โฏ+ ๐ฝ20๐ฅ๐,20 + ๐๐, (4.3) where ๐๐ is a normal pseudo-random number with ๐ธ(๐๐) = 0 and ๐ (๐๐) = ๐ 2 = 1. M. Kayanan and P. Wijekoon Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Ruhuna Journal of Science Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 20 We choose ๐ฝ = (๐ฝ1,๐ฝ2,โฆ,๐ฝ20) as the normalized eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of ๐ฟโฒ๐ฟ for which ๐ทโฒ๐ท = 1 (McDonald and Galarneau 1975). Prior information was defined based on Nagar and Kakwaniโs (1964) approach, which is described in Appendix B. Further, we have assumed the first four elements of OLSE estimates as ๐ (see Appendix B). To study the effects of various degrees of multicollinearity on the data, we pick ๐ = (0.5, 0.7, 0.9), which signifies weak, moderate, and high multicollinearity, respectively. Since the execution time for the algorithm simulation is long due to cross-validation, we simulated only 50 datasets. Future simulation studies will be implemented with a greater number of simulations using cluster programming. Figures 1-3 and Tables 2-4 show the cross-validated RMSE and the median cross-validated RMSE of the SRGLARS algorithms, respectively, for 50 simulated data. Fig 1. Cross-validated RMSE values of the SRGLARS algorithms when ฯ = 0.5 Fig 2. Cross-validated RMSE values of the SRGLARS algorithms when ฯ = 0.7 M. Kayanan and P. Wijekoon Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Ruhuna Journal of Science Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 21 Fig 3. Cross-validated RMSE values of the SRGLARS algorithms when ฯ = 0.9 Table 2: Median Cross-validated RMSE values of the SRGLARS algorithms when ฯ = 0.5. Algorithms RMSE (k, d) t Selected variables LARS-MRE 3.2805 โ 6.1630 15 LARS-SRRE 3.3531 0.3 6.1777 16 LARS-SRAURE 3.2832 0.1 6.1631 16 LARS-SRLE 3.3531 0.7 6.1773 16 LARS-SRAULE 3.3012 0.99 6.1630 16 LARS-SRPCRE 3.3070 โ 6.4343 16 LARS-SRrk 3.3122 0.1 6.9493 17 LARS-SRrd 3.2976 0.9 6.9497 16 LARS-SROE 3.0182 โ 4.1102 18 Table 3: Median Cross-validated RMSE values of the SRGLARS algorithms when ฯ = 0.7. Algorithms RMSE (k, d) t Selected variables LARS-MRE 3.2041 โ 6.8458 15 LARS-SRRE 3.3575 0.1 7.5043 16 LARS-SRAURE 3.3884 0.8 6.7785 16 LARS-SRLE 3.3537 0.9 7.5049 17 LARS-SRAULE 3.3886 0.2 6.7786 16 LARS-SRPCRE 3.3135 โ 7.7712 16 LARS-SRrk 3.2525 1.0 8.5411 17 LARS-SRrd 3.2534 0.5 8.1097 17 LARS-SROE 3.0324 โ 4.3864 18 M. Kayanan and P. Wijekoon Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Ruhuna Journal of Science Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 22 Table 4: Median Cross-validated RMSE values of the SRGLARS algorithms when ฯ = 0.9. Algorithms RMSE (k, d) t Selected variables LARS-MRE 3.3391 โ 11.6628 16 LARS-SRRE 3.2722 0.1 11.5897 17 LARS-SRAURE 3.3354 0.1 11.6606 16 LARS-SRLE 3.3110 0.99 11.6628 17 LARS-SRAULE 3.3107 0.99 11.6628 16 LARS-SRPCRE 3.3782 โ 12.2288 16 LARS-SRrk 3.3531 0.7 12.9540 17 LARS-SRrd 3.3276 0.3 13.0038 17 LARS-SROE 2.9878 โ 4.5654 18 From Figure 1-3, we can observe that the LARS-SROE algorithm outperformed other SRGLARS algorithms in RMSE criterion under all degrees of multicollinearity. From Tables 2-4, we observe that the SROE included more variables than the other SRGLARS algorithms, although it has minimum RMSE. Therefore, in practical situations, if a researcher intends to reduce the number of variables from the model, they may consider other SRGLARS algorithms based on the interested variables and prediction performance using the plot of coefficient paths discussed in the real-world example. 4.2 Real-world example As a real-world data set, we considered the Prostate Cancer Data (Stamey et al. 1989), which is used by Tibshirani (1996), Efron et al. (2004) and Zou and Hastie (2005) to study the performance of LASSO, LARS algorithm and Enet. The Prostate Cancer Data contains 97 observations and 8 predictors such as log cancer volume (lcavol), log prostate weight (lweight), age, log of the amount of benign prostatic hyperplasia (lbph), seminal vesicle invasion (svi), log capsular penetration (lcp), Gleason score (gleason) and percentage Gleason score 4 or 5 (pgg45). The dependent variable is the log of prostate-specific antigen (lpsa). The Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) values of the predictor variables are 3.09, 2.97, 2.47, 2.05, 1.95, 1.37, 1.36 and 1.32, and the condition number is 243, which exposes high multicollinearity between the predictor variables. This data set is associated in โlasso2โ R package. We have used 67 observations to fitting the model, and 30 observations to compute the RMSE. We have assumed (Nagar and Kakwani 1964) that the first three OLSE estimates of Prostate Cancer Data are unbiased, and we defined the prior information for this data based on Nagar and Kakwaniโs (1964) approach, as described in Appendix B. The cross-validated RMSE of the SRGLARS algorithms are shown in Table 5, and coefficient paths of respective SRGLARS algorithm are shown in Figure 4 in Appendix A. M. Kayanan and P. Wijekoon Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Ruhuna Journal of Science Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 23 Table 5: Cross-validated RMSE values of Prostate Cancer Data using SRGLARS. Algorithms RMSE (k, d) t Selected variables LARS-MRE 0.77784 โ 1.5632 6 LARS-SRRE 0.73567 0.38 1.7329 8 LARS-SRAURE 0.77784 0.01 1.5632 6 LARS-SRLE 0.73566 0.62 1.7331 8 LARS-SRAULE 0.77784 0.99 1.5632 6 LARS-SRPCRE 0.74084 โ 1.5656 7 LARS-SRrk 0.74083 0.04 1.5643 7 LARS-SRrd 0.74084 0.96 1.5643 7 LARS-SROE 0.69897 โ 1.1226 8 Table 5 shows that the LARS-SROE algorithm outperforms other algorithms on Prostate Cancer Data, which is agreed the results obtained in the simulation study. Further, we can note that LARS-SRRE, LARS-SRLE, and LARS-SROE did not make any variable selections on Prostate Cancer Data. Figure 4 (see Appendix A) shows that the choice of variables is different for each SRGLARS algorithms. Note that in all graphs, the order of selection of variables is the same except Figure 4(i). Further, the coefficients relevant to the variables lcp, age and gleason are very small for Fig 4((a)-(h)) and those coefficients are almost zero in Fig 4(i). This indicates that the contribution from those three variables is very low for the fitted model. 5 Conclusions This study presented a generalized version of stochastic restricted LARS (SRGLARS) algorithm to combine LASSO with existing stochastic restricted estimators. We have shown the superiority of SRGLARS when it combines LASSO with SROE (LARS- SROE) using a Monte Carlo simulation and a real-world example in RMSE criterion. However, LARS-SROE is less likely to make variable selections when looking at the results directly. However, by examining the size of the coefficients as shown in the example, we can drop some irrelevant variables form the model. If a researcher wanted to reduce some variables from the model, the other combinations of the SRGLARS algorithm could be considered to fit the regression model by studying the RMSE and coefficients estimates based on the coefficients path. Acknowledgements Anonymous reviewers are acknowledged for their comments on the initial manuscript. M. Kayanan and P. Wijekoon Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Ruhuna Journal of Science Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 24 References Akdeniz F, Kaรงiranlar S. 1995. On the almost unbiased generalized liu estimator and unbiased estimation of the bias and mse. Communication in Statistics - Theory and Methods 24(7):1789โ1797. Baye MR, Parker DF. 1984. Combining ridge and principal component regression: A money demand illustration. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods 13(2):197โ205. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. The Annals of statistics 32(2):407โ499. He D, Wu Y. 2014. A stochastic restricted principal components regression estimator in the linear model. The Scientific World Journal, vol. 2014, Article ID 231506, 6p. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/231506 Hoerl E, Kennard RW. 1970. 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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological) 58:267โ288. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B 67:301โ320. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/231506 M. Kayanan and P. Wijekoon Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Ruhuna Journal of Science Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 25 Appendix A: Figure 4 (a) (b) (c) (d) M. Kayanan and P. Wijekoon Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Ruhuna Journal of Science Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 26 (e) (f) (g) (h) M. Kayanan and P. Wijekoon Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Ruhuna Journal of Science Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 27 (i) Fig 4. Coefficient paths of the (a) LARS-MRE, (b) LARS-SRRE, (c) LARS- SRAURE, (d) LARS-SRLE, (e) LARS-SRAULE, (f) LARS-SRPCRE, (g) LARS-SRrk (h) LARS-SRrd and (i) LARS-SROE versus ๐ = โ |๐ท๐| ๐ ๐=๐ for the Prostate Cancer Data. M. Kayanan and P. Wijekoon Generalized Stochastic Restricted LARS Algorithm Ruhuna Journal of Science Vol 13 (1): 14-28, June 2022 28 Appendix B: Selection of prior information According to Nagar and Kakwani (1964), we can define the prior information as follows: Let ๐ท1 be a vector of some selected ๐ elements of ๐ท and ๐ท2 is the rest of elements. Assume that ๐ is the known unbiased estimates of ๐ท1. By using the โtwo sigma ruleโ, now we can write the range of ๐ท1 as ๐ ยฑ 2๐๐ธ(๐). Based on that we can set the expressions of equation (2.2) as ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ = ๐, ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ = ( 1 0 โฏ 0 โฏ 0 0 1 โฏ 0 โฏ 0 โฎ 0 โฎ 0 โฑ โฏ โฎ 1 โฏ โฏ 0 0 ) ๐ร๐ , ๐ท = ( ๐ท1 ๐ท2 ) and ๐2๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ = ( ๐๐ธ(๐1) 0 โฏ 0 0 โฎ 0 ๐๐ธ(๐2) โฎ 0 โฏ โฑ โฏ 0 โฎ ๐๐ธ(๐๐) ) ๐ร๐ . Appendix C: K-fold cross-validation to estimate shrinkage parameters, (k, d) Step 1: Split the data set into ๐พ groups. Step 2: For each unique group ๐ = 1,2, . . . ,๐พ: โข Take one group as a test data set โข Take the remaining ๐พ โ 1 groups as a training data set โข Estimate the respective estimator ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ(๐,๐) with shrinkage parameters (๐,๐) using the training data set. Use intital values of ๐,๐ as 0.01, and then compute the RMSE cross-validation errors separately as follows: ๐ถ๐_๐ ๐๐๐ธ๐(๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ(๐,๐)) = โ ๐พ ๐ โ (๐ฆ๐ โ โ โ ๐ฅ๐๐ โ ๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ๐(๐,๐) ๐ ๐=1 ) 2 ๐/๐พ ๐=1 , where ๐ฆ๐ โ and ๐ฅ๐๐ โ are the variables belongs to the test data set. Step 3: Then, find the overall cross-validation errors as follows: ๐ถ๐_๐ ๐๐๐ธ (๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ(๐,๐)) = 1 ๐พ โ๐ถ๐_๐ ๐๐๐ธ๐ (๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ(๐,๐)) ๐พ ๐=1 Step 4: Continue this procedure by increasing the values of ๐ or ๐ by a small increment, and choose the value of ๐ or ๐ that makes ๐ถ๐_๐ ๐๐๐ธ (๏ฟฝฬ๏ฟฝ(๐,๐)) smallest.