key: cord-351665-6gwb900b
authors: Sarkar, Priyanka; Debnath, Nirmal; Reang, Demsai
title: Coupled human-environment system amid COVID-19 crisis: A conceptual model to understand the nexus
date: 2020-08-18
journal: Sci Total Environ
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141757
sha: 
doc_id: 351665
cord_uid: 6gwb900b

Abstract The world today is dealing with a havoc crisis due to the pervasive outbreak of COVID-19. As a preventive measure against the pandemic, government authorities worldwide have implemented and adopted strict policy interventions such as lockdown, social distancing, and quarantine, to curtail the disease transmission. Consequently, humans have been experiencing several ill impacts, while the natural environment has been reaping the benefits of the interventions. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the interlinked relationship between human society and the natural environment amid the current crisis. Herein, we performed a meta-analysis of existing literature reporting the various impacts of COVID-19 on human society and the natural environment. A conceptual model was developed to portray and address how the interaction of the existing elements of both sub-components of the coupled human-environment system (CHES) – human society and natural environment – are impacted by the government interventions. Results revealed a suite of positive and negative impacts of COVID-19 on both the sub-components. Our model provides an explicit impression of the complex nexus of CHES amid the current crisis. The proposed conceptual model could help in understanding the complex nexus by identifying the route of short-term impacts of COVID-19 measures and thus may aid in identifying priority areas for discussion and planning in similar other crises as well.

Coupled human-environment system (CHES) represents a complex, dynamic, interconnected, and integrated system in which humans and the natural environment interact with each other (Turner et al. 2003; Liu et al. 2007; Galvani et al. 2016) . In recent centuries, humans have been remarkably intervening with the environment to fulfill the demands of the growing population and rapid economic development (Myers and Patz 2009) . Such a plethora of anthropogenic interventions poses long-term repercussions i.e., extreme climatic events and other natural calamities, food, and water scarcity, increased exposure to infectious diseases, population displacement, etc. on the human society (Myers and Patz 2009; Galvani et al. 2016 ). Therefore, understanding the complex CHES is important for recognizing and addressing the vulnerability of the situation on human society, and natural ecosystems amid any local or global crisis (Turner et al. 2003) .

The world today is dealing with a havoc crisis due to the pervasive outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 . The vicious COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a new 2020), and exhibits a higher human to human transmissibility (Chan et al. 2020) . The pandemic has posed a great threat to the global-public health and economic recession and is still ongoing (Bogoch et al. 2020; Wu et al. 2020) . So far, no proven pharmaceutical treatment has been developed to combat the pandemic (Singhal 2020). Given its severe impact, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30, 2020.

As a preventive measure against the pandemic, the government authorities worldwide have implemented and adopted strict policy interventions to maintain social (physical) distancing and curtail the transmission of COVID-19. Almost one-quarter of the global population is now confined within their homes, experiencing several negative/ill impacts in terms of socioeconomic and psychological well-being. On the contrary, there are several hidden benefits of the interventions on the environment or natural world. Therefore, it is imperative to understand and appreciate the mutually-affective relationship between human society and the natural environment amid the current crisis (Kumar 2020a ) and identify the priority areas for designing necessary action plans for a balanced state. Although, few studies have highlighted the impacts of COVID-19 and relevant policy actions on the environment, and social aspects like economic and health consequences (Hevia and Neumeyer 2020; Lin et al. 2020; Muhammad et al. 2020; Sharma et al. 2020; Zambrano-Monserrate et al. 2020) , the complexity of CHES amid the current crisis has not been well understood. Unpredictability and vulnerability of CHES require a case or situation-specific assessment to consider appropriate relationships of variables with a set of standardized methods (Polsky et al. 2003; Turner et al. 2003) . In this regard, our study attempted to understand the processes, responses, and feedbacks within the complex CHES amid the crisis through a conceptual model. Such models are valuable communication tools that represent the current knowledge of a system and illustrate its complex interactions in a simplified way (Gross 2003; Imgraben J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Journal Pre-proof et al. 2019) . Conceptual models may thus assist in identifying the priority areas that require further research or monitoring and build a basis for discussion and planning (Roman and Barrett 1999) .

The specific objectives of the study were to (i) perform a meta-analysis of existing literature reporting various impacts of COVID-19 on human society and the natural environment, and (ii) develop a conceptual model to illustrate and understand the complex nexus of CHES amid the pandemic. Our conceptual model could be helpful in clearly portraying the complex and coupled nature of the system amid the current crisis. Thus, aid in identifying the priority areas and intrigue the discussion for further planning towards mitigating the effects of the current-as well as similar crisis.

We performed a systematic review of peer-reviewed scientific articles on the impact of COVID-19 on human society and the natural environment worldwide written in English using the ISI Web of Science (WoS) -Core Collection database published until April 30, 2020 (with an open initial date). A literature search was conducted using a combined search string with two topic fields. Search strings in the first topic field included different terms denoting COVID-19 outbreak, restrictions and their impacts ("COVID-19", 'coronavirus', The conceptual model was developed based on the information collected from the literature review, and the previous experience and expertise of the first author on model development -'Expert-based models' approach (Ferrier et al. 2016 ). This was followed by brainstorming amongst all the authors to improvise the model. During the entire process of model development, authors' practical experiences and in-depth understanding of the context of ecological and environmental studies, and associated socio-economic factors were advantageous.

The literature review revealed a suite of impacts (positive and/or negative) of COVID-19 and lockdown/restrictions on human society and the natural environment (Table 1) on both human society and the environment were also recorded (Table 1) .

The proposed conceptual model comprises of two modules, (i) drivers of change: COVID-19 (direct driver) and lockdown/restrictions (indirect driver), and (ii) our focal point: coupled human-environment system (CHES) (Fig. 1) . Drivers of change refer to the factors that directly or indirectly cause changes in nature and its components, anthropogenic assets, and good quality of life (IPBES, https://ipbes.net/glossary/driver). The conceptual model illustrates how the different elements of two sub-systems: human society and natural environment, interact with one another -directly and/or indirectly, through forming a network of associations. The relationships between the elements of the two sub-systems are depicted by arrows, which also shows the direction of impacts, positive and/or negative ( Fig.   1 ). For example, for the sub-system: human society, limited transportation had a positive impact in containing the disease, thus lowering infection & death. Similarly, limited transportation due to lockdown resulted in reduced fuel consumption, generating positive impacts on the sub-system: natural environment, characterized by reduced-air pollution (lower conc. of CO 2 , CO, NOx, PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) and environmental noise, leading to flourished biodiversity/wildlife. The conceptual model also displayed two feedbacks -(i) between the primary and secondary drivers -COVID-19 and lockdown/restrictions, and, (ii) between COVID-19 and the health workers. To illustrate, the spreading of the virus has mandated the implementation of lockdown inducing grief to human society worldwide, which on the other hand, had a positive impact on suppressing the pandemic. COVID-19 crisis is considered one of the worst pandemics in history which has further complicated the entire coupled human-environmental system. Lower adaptability of human society to various socio-environmental crises arises mainly due to the poor understanding of the complex and interconnected nature of the human-environment system (Dearing et al. 2006 ). Hence, understanding the complexity of any system is pressing to avoid any environmental ensue on a regional or global scale (Roberts et al. 2002) . Conceptual models assist in envisioning the complex interactions in a simplified manner and recognize priority areas for the implementation of necessary management strategies. Our conceptual model explicitly illustrates the impacts of COVID-19 and lockdown/restriction -directly or indirectlyagainst the pandemic on the various elements of the intricate and coupled humanenvironment system and/or the feedbacks amongst them as described below:

As depicted in the model, COVID-19 has a direct negative impact on human health owing to its high risk of infection and death. The fatal impact of COVID-19 on global human health has surpassed the number of infections and deaths caused by its ancestors and is still accelerating (Bogoch et al. 2020; Chan et al. 2020; Lin et al. 2020; Wu et al. 2020) . Grech (2020) suggested that the pandemic may lead to half a billion deaths i.e., ~ 6% of the global population or more; likely due to the absence of a concrete approved treatment to combat the pandemic (Singhal 2020). The pandemic has led to the increased generation of tons of medical/healthcare wastes several folds when compared to before the disease outbreak (ADB J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Journal Pre-proof Calma 2020; ISDM 2020; Saddat et al. 2020) . As highlighted in the model, increased generation of medical wastes, in turn, led to unmanageable medical waste triggering other human health risks (Alverson 2020; Jiangtao and Zheng 2020; Zambrano-Monserrate 2020).

For example, health-& sanitation workers, rag pickers, trash cleaners, etc. are at high risk of infection due to close contact with the patients and/or unmarked medical wastes such as discarded masks, gloves, etc. (Mallapur 2020; Saddat et al. 2020 ).

In addition, the model also depicts the existence of feedback between COVID-19 and health workers. For instance, while the health workers are at the front line of the pandemic outbreak, their exposure to the virus has put them at the risk of infection and death, coupled with other health risks such as fatigue, occupational burnout, psychological distress, etc. making them vulnerable to the current crisis. As of April 12, 2020, the WHO reported that the pandemic has already hit over 22,000 health workers across 52 countries (The Economies Times 2020a). On the contrary, health workers stand as an important potential barrier to minimize the risk of COVID-19 infections and death as feedback and contribute largely to the wellbeing of the global public.

The pandemic has plunged the entire world into a looming global economic recession (Corlett et al. 2020; Giles et al. 2020; Ozili and Arun 2020) . As depicted in the model, the 

The model depicts a direct negative impact of lockdown on human society in terms of inducing poverty and food insecurity/crisis. However, the impact of lockdown on the poor and wealthy sections of society has been disparate. For instance, while the period of total lockdown has been easier for the rich and middle-class society to pull through with assured incomes, health insurance, adequate spaces at home to maintain physical distancing & running water supplies, daily sustenance of the weaker section of the society has been very miserable. Insecure sources of income for billions of the poor people worldwide due to loss of jobs amid lockdown as discussed in section 4.1.2 have severely affected their livelihoods pushing them towards extreme poverty. In addition to the instability of food availability due 

Our model highlights both positive and negative impacts of lockdown due to the limitedtransportation and movement. The model depicts the positive impact of lockdown through limiting movement/transportation, thus ceasing all events -social, political, sports, academic, and other gatherings (breeding grounds of the virus) to maintain social distancing and curtail the disease transmission as mandated by government authorities worldwide (Financial Express 2020). More than 3.9 billion people or half of the world's population are currently under containment (Sandford 2020) . Consequently, the lockdown has posed a negative impact on the psychological resilience of people (Homes et al. 2020; Li et al. 2020; Qiu et al. 2020; Wang et al. 2020) . However, it is worth mentioning that homestay due to limited movement may likely bring a positive impact in terms of enhancing the family bonding.

As shown in the model, paralyzed transportation due to lockdown has negatively impacted the global economic recession. For instance, lockdown against COVID-19 has caused the shutdown of national borders in nearly 100 countries which have dropped air travel by 96% J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Journal Pre-proof (Wallace 2020) , causing a loss of US$ 113 billion to the air travel industry (Appleton 2020).

The tourism industry has also come to halt, causing 1% global economic contraction as reported by the UN (The Statesman 2020). Similarly, the lockdown has also hit the railway industry in terms of financial loss as reported by Western Railways, Govt. of India (The Economic Times 2020). Limited transportation has also caused unemployment and job insecurity for people involved in the private transport sector, which would ultimately affect their psychological resilience. . ESA also reported the changing density of harmful gases emitted due to fossil fuel burning (Child 2020) . In addition, the carbon emissions in China, the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, has dropped by ~ 25% over four weeks at the beginning of 2020 (Child 2020) . In northern India, the residents now could view the Himalayan mountain range due to increased visibility, which otherwise has been concealed by pollution for ~ 30 years (Child 2020) . The air quality index (AQI) in Delhi and NCR's, India, has reduced to 60, which otherwise scores an AQI of 600 during the smoggy winter months (The Economic

Times 2020). While in Venice, Italy, restrained tourism industries have improved the water quality of winding canals (Child 2020) . Moreover, paralyzed transportation has also plummeted environmental noise due to the slowdown of traffic (Gibney 2020, Schuster 2020). All these factors are likely to contribute to the flourishing and liberation of biodiversity and wildlife.

Our model also shows an indirect positive impact of improved air quality in containing the disease transmission and death. Air pollution is known to have a strong association with a high incidence of various respiratory infections (Cipolla et al. 2018; Silva et al. 2014; Zhang et al. 2020) , and higher mortality rates (Lelieveld et al. 2015) . Evidence shows high cases of COVID-19 in highly polluted areas of China, Italy, and the United States, the countries with higher cases (Pansini and Fornacca 2020) .

In addition to the impact of COVID-19 in terms of infection and death as discussed in section 4.1, extended lockdown and stay-at-home regulations against the pandemic has associated human health risks such as weight gains due to sedentary lifestyle, psychological/behavioral changes, etc. (Lippi et al. 2020) Parivaar, Govt. of India, https://www.gangaaction.org/actions/issues/solid-waste/). All these activities are very likely to contribute to flourishing biodiversity/wildlife.

The shutdown of offices, business centers, industries, and other workplaces due to the pandemic (Muhammad et al. 2020, Richards and Rickard 2020) has both negative and positive impacts on the CHES as identified in the model. Nickle (2020) suggested that 86% of industry members such as the growers, shippers, retailers have been reported to be affected due to the lockdown. This instigated a high negative impact through a looming global economic recession, leading to unemployment/job insecurity and lower psychological resilience.

On the contrary, the model also identifies the positive impact of the shutdown of workplaces on the natural environment. For example, reduced generation of industrial and commercial wastes contributed to the improvement of air quality, creating a similar situation like halted transportation as discussed in section 4.3. In addition, the shutdown of the industrial sector that releases a huge quantity of pollutants has contributed to improving the air and water quality as identified in the model. For some years now, the River Ganga and Yamuna of India were considered amongst the most polluted water bodies. However, due to the lockdown, the rivers have been reported to appear cleaner and brighter owing to the temporary shutdown of the chemical industries; the major source of river pollution in India (Times of India 2020;

The Economic Times 2020c). All these factors are likely to contribute to enhancing the overall environmental quality and flourishing biodiversity/wildlife. benefits for the wildlife in terms of higher reproductive success, less migration, and lower mortality rates (Ro 2020) . Seismologists suggest that such noise reductions have resulted in less seismic noise, or vibrations in the Earth's crust by ~ one-third compared to pre-lockdown levels (Ro 2020) . Moreover, decreased noise in oceans due to halted cruises is likely to decrease the production of stress hormones in sea fauna (Koren 2020) . As shown in the model, humans are also likely to be beneficial given the harmful physical effect of chronic noise such as high stress, disrupted sleep, high blood pressure, cognitive impairment in children, hearing loss, heart disease, etc. (Ro 2020).

Owing to the indirect positive impact of lockdown on the natural environment as discussed above, nature is reviving, thereby contributing to flourished wildlife and biodiversity as depicted in the model. Due to the improved water quality in rivers, many of the rare animals have been spotted in the places not seen earlier. For example, the Indian Gangetic dolphins (one of the four freshwater dolphin species in the world; an IUCN endangered species) could be spotted more in Vikramshila Gangetic Dolphin Sanctuary, Bihar, India, as a result of limited human activity along the River Ganga due to lockdown (Khan 2020) . The presence of dolphins is a bio-indicator of a healthy river ecosystem (Khan 2020) and hence, the lockdown in human society has turned to be a 'blessing in disguise' for the dolphins. Elsewise, degradation of water quality in Indian rivers due to dumping of municipal and industrial wastes is known to have a negative impact on human health and other aquatic fauna (Ganga Action Plan, Govt. of India, https://www.gangaaction.org/actions/issues/solid-waste/). Das (2020) reported mass nesting of the endangered Olive Ridley sea turtles at Rushikulya rookery in Odisha, India due to the shutdown of touristic activities. In Thailand, restriction of fishing and touristic activities has favored the increased spawning of rare Leatherback sea turtles (a vulnerable IUCN species) (The Guardian 2020). Basu (2020) reported that restricted J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Journal Pre-proof transportation due to nationwide lockdown has led to flourishing bird diversity in Kolkata, India.

Our model identified the negative impacts of lockdown on education. For instance, government authorities worldwide have mandated shutdown of academic sectors including schools, colleges, and universities in 166 countries to maintain social distancing to curtail the transmission (Corlett et al. 2020) . As a result, more than 1.52 billion students, and nearly 60.2 million teachers are no longer in the classroom (UN 2020), postponing and/or canceling of examinations and subsequent delay in graduating. Nevertheless, the lockdown of academic institutions has provided an opportunity and platform for digital education and online/elearning. Yet, the negative impacts of lockdown on education is more overpowering on its positive aspect.

On the other hand, we identified both positive and negative impacts of lockdown on research.

For instance, the lockdown has frozen many laboratories, and field-based research, thus halting the ongoing research and instigation of new research as well (Corlett et al. 2020 ).

Moreover, travel restrictions have canceled and/or postponed many national and international conferences, meetings, and research stays. Yet, the lockdown has also provided ample time for research and innovations (Paital et al. 2020) , and to collaborate among the experts globally.

Given the complexity of CHES, the emergence of unprecedented uncertainties is inevitable for a pandemic like COVID-19 which was not evidenced in the last century (WHO 2020).

Uncertainties mainly arise due to limited current knowledge about the virus and how people J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Journal Pre-proof across the globe modify their behaviors in response to the pandemic (Chater 2020) . Hence, uncertainty can accelerate fear, stress, panic, anxiousness, loss of trust amongst human society, making us powerless over the direction of life (Robinson and Smith 2020; WHO 2020) . In absence of the COVID-19 vaccine, it is uncertain if the virus will flare up as restriction gets relaxed; or, whether the lockdown & personal safety measures in addition to contact-tracing and testing, might be able to stamp it out. Over time, the ongoing restrictions due to the current crisis are likely to surge the uncertainty over the various elements of human society such as the economy, health, psychological well-being, etc. As discussed in section 4.1.1, governmental intervention such as strict lockdown has potentially impeded the spreading of the virus saving billions of lives worldwide. However, this has come at the cost of doomed economy and income loss due to the shutdown of industry and transportation sectors, etc. as discussed in section 4.1.2, creating a 'health-wealth trade-off'. In the opposite scenario, the relaxation of lockdown would involve a reverse trade-off where the economy recovers at the expense of an increased threat of mass contamination and death. It is therefore uncertain or unclear to decide the best policy measure yet as COVID-19 would take a toll either way. This scenario is likely to be worse especially in the developing countries due to the differences in population structure, fiscal capacity, healthcare capacity, higher prevalence of "hand-to-mouth'' households, and the size of the informal sector (Alon et al. 2020) . Herein, the quantification of trade-offs for a better understanding of the current crisis is urgent for the decision-makers to develop effective policy measures that account for different resource allocation strategies (Daher and Mohtar 2015) . Such quantitative analyses may also assist in understanding how the different policy response priorities to the current pandemic should differ in the developed and developing nations (Alon et al. 2020) .

Another important instance worth mentioning amid the current crisis is the differential scenario of water security in the developed and developing world. Until the discovery of J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Journal Pre-proof medicine or vaccine to control the disease, the WHO has recommended basic protection measures such as the frequent washing of hands and the use of face masks and hand gloves to curtail/spread the virus infection, in addition to maintaining social (physical) distancing.

While frequent hand washing is well-practiced in the rich/developed societies/countries having better availability of safe water, millions of people especially in the poor countries/societies are highly susceptible to the virus due to the lack of safe water supply (Ndaw 2020). However, in a world with the frequent outbreak of similar pandemics, it is uncertain if only the countries/communities with low/no access to safe water would be affected more. There is a high chance of water scarcity due to water overuse for domestic and hygiene-related practices to prevent or suppress the potential pandemics throughout the world irrespective of its economic stability (Kumar 2020b; Rohila 2020) .

The abatement of air pollution due to lockdown is another instance with high uncertainty.

Although the emission of CO 2 has reduced due to the lockdown/restrictions as discussed in section 4.1.4, such short-term drops in gas emissions are likely to have very little impact on the overall CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere given its relentless pile-up and longer residence in the atmosphere.

As mentioned in section 4.1.9, flourished biodiversity due to governmental interventions has been one of the bright sides of the current crisis for the natural environment. However, it is uncertain if such liberation would be favorable for the wildlife in the long run. As wild animals venture into settlement areas and human-modified landscapes in search of food and resources, unexpected threats such as human-animal conflicts might arise. This may favor the poachers and opportunistic delinquents as the lockdown prevails, ultimately leading to conservation threats. In addition, the toll on the global economies might also reflect in reduced funding for wildlife conservation and management. Illegal encroachment of forested lands is also likely to arise when the forest officials split their time between regular duties and J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Journal Pre-proof helping out with the COVID-19 situation. Another instance could be the risk for biodiversity and natural habitat by forcing poor people to adopt hunting and illicit lopping of trees for daily livelihood sustenance as a result of the loss of employment as mentioned in section 4.1.7. In-depth and country-tailored assessment & quantification of such uncertainties through developing multiple scenarios for both the developed and developing nations is therefore important to better understand the long-term impacts of such crises on CHES.

Future studies may consider quantifying the trade-offs and uncertainties of the current crisis on CHES to assist the decision-makers for better policy-making process.

Overall, our study demonstrates how the different policy actions i.e., lockdown, socialdistancing, quarantine, etc. against COVID-19 has changed the way CHES interacts and influences each other. Although the crisis has instigated severe ill impacts on human society, it has proved to be a 'blessing in disguise' for the natural environment as discussed in sections 4.1.6, 4.1.8, 4.1.9. Restricted/regulated anthropogenic interventions against COVID-19 have given rise to a better natural environment for which governments and scientists worldwide have been investing time and money for decades. On the contrary, the current situation urges for the adoption of preventive measures to mitigate ill effects faced by human society as discussed in sections 4.1. 1-4.1.5, 4.1.7, & 4.1.10 . However, the recent situation does not reflect sustainable earth, given the overpowering negative impact of the current crisis on human society. Thus, even if the natural environment is benefited due to the ongoing crisis, several uncertainties persist as discussed in section 4.2. The situation is likely to reverse once the lockdown is withdrawn, and both the sub-systems would be affected -the worst-case scenario. Over the centuries, humans have imposed dazzled pressure on nature and experienced its repercussions from time to time. Thus, in both cases, the benefits are shortterm, which is likely to lead to a pessimistic future where both the sub-system of CHES is negatively affected. Thus, with a prolonged crisis, it is likely that the aspects of CHES would J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f give rise to several trade-offs and many more uncertainties as discussed in section 4.2. Our study, therefore recommends that new policies should aim to convert the short-term gains into long-term benefits, creating an optimistic post-coronavirus world, beneficial for both the sub-systems. Given the fact that the human sub-component of CHES is experiencing the worst impacts of the crisis, policy actions should primarily focus on mitigating the ill impacts faced by human society. In this regard, our model could help identify the priority areas to understand the vulnerability of the current situation. However, incorporating the perspective of the local stakeholders and policymakers is important while developing a conceptual model. This allows covering the gaps and variations in external political and economic forces on the regional and local environment, which is a limitation of the present study given the sensitivity of the current crisis.

The COVID-19 crisis might be an 'eye-opener' for humanity. The current predicament reflects that nature has the potential to revive itself given that the anthropogenic interventions are checked. Therefore, it is high time to understand and appreciate the complexity of CHES and adopt appropriate measures towards tackling the current crisis while maintaining harmony with nature. The main purpose of the study was to propose a conceptual model to portray and address how the interaction of the existing elements of both sub-components of CHES -human society and natural environment -are impacted by the various governmental interventions i.e., lockdown, social distancing, quarantine, etc. towards combating the crisis.

The merit of our model is that it comprises all possible elements of CHES and provides an explicit impression of complex CHES amid the crisis. The proposed conceptual model provides an insight into the intricate linkage of CHES and helps in understanding the J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Journal Pre-proof complex nexus by identifying the route of short-term impacts of COVID-19 measures. Thus, our model may be considered as a baseline for further studies and may serve as a precursor towards building quantitative modeling. The model thus may aid in policymaking by identifying the priority areas for discussion and planning in similar other crises as well.

Future studies may focus on forecasting the long-term impacts of the current crisis through developing scenarios considering the different components of the CHES identified in the present study.

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