SAJEMS NS Vol 7 (2004) No 2 387 An Overview of Commodity Tax Reform in Southern Africa ________________________________________________________________ Z Robinson Department of Economics, University of Pretoria ________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT Various studies have emphasised the trade and/or revenue implications of free trade. The purpose of this study is to investigate future tax implications of further economic integration. Additional considerations are whether tax competition can become an issue and whether it can be used to the benefit of all SADC members. An integrated approach was done of what is needed in terms of commodity taxation to reach a workable long-term solution. This article analyses experiences in the developing world with reference to lessons learned from developed regions. The first section provides a theoretical background, analysing the meaning of commodity tax. The second section emphasises the importance of fiscal decentralisation in federations and the SADC and the third investigates the character of and changes in commodity taxation that could occur in the future. JEL H20 1 INTRODUCTION The World Bank (1991) has expressed concern about tax competition and harmonisation in developing countries. This specifically includes competitive responses from other countries to incentives (tax holidays, accelerated depreciation, tax credits, and favourable resource royalties designed to attract foreign capital) used in developing countries. Unexplained phenomena relate to the effectiveness of these incentives to attract foreign capital and trade as well as the side effects of these incentives, e.g. tax discrimination, to induce or limit growth. The need for developing countries to harmonise taxes among themselves through multilateral and bilateral negotiations is therefore, again emphasised. Apart from finding sensible explanations for problematic tax practices, a continuous attempt is also made to find long-term workable solutions. The emphasis falls on Southern Africa, that is, the Southern African Development Community (SADC). An African renewal has been postponed for many years. With the advent of the SAJEMS NS Vol 7 (2004) No 2 388 new millennium, President Mbeki of South Africa referred to this renewal as an “African Renaissance”. The Millenium Partnership for the African Recovery Programme (MAP, 2001) led by Mbeki, Obasanjo of Nigeria and Boutefilka of Algeria, and the OMEGA Plan (OMEGA, 2001) proposed by President Wade of Senegal, can therefore be seen as a welcome change to previous efforts. At this special summit meeting of the heads of state and government in March 2001, the need to make provision for a new streamlined structure for the SADC in order to speed up its economic integration and cope better with the crisis in the region (e.g. the war in the DRC), was also recognised. Some of the proposed changes sought to create legal structures that would adjudicate issues of trade and economics that would not suit the interests of individual members. The aim of the reform process is to address the fears of smaller economies and to accommodate their aspirations and interests. The World Bank (2000: 34) points out that both “winners and losers (and more of the former than the latter)” should be recognised as the first step, although the persuasion of the winners to forgo some of their gains to compensate “influential losers who could otherwise stymie the process” should form part of trade and investment reform. Although the SADC has gone beyond the initial stages of an FTA, tax competition and coordination problems as such have not yet surfaced. The possibility of a higher degree of economic integration may yet expose these in future. At the same time the formulation of macroeconomic convergence criteria for this region has become essential and this should be dealt with within the confinements of certain tax restrictions. The emphasis in this article is not specifically on trade or the revenue implications of free trade because various studies have already been conducted in this area. The purpose here is to take the lead and investigate the future tax implications of further integration. An additional consideration is whether the current situation can be used to the benefit of all SADC members. The idea is to form an integrated approach of what is needed in terms of commodity taxation to reach a workable long-term solution in terms of macroeconomic stability. This article attempts to analyse experiences in the developing world with cross- references to lessons that can be learned from developed regions. In this context, the first section analysis the meaning of commodity tax competition and therefore provides a theoretical background. A short background study of fiscal decentralisation is then provided and hence also the institutional character of the more “developed” federations in the developing world, namely Argentina, Brazil and India in comparison with the SADC. Deeper integration means increased exposure to the consequences of the removal of barriers to trade and factor movements and the experiences of selected federations can provide useful lessons. Argentina, however, is a unique case study, and is included because of its successes with institutional reform during the 1980s and SAJEMS NS Vol 7 (2004) No 2 389 1990s. On the downside, it is also included to show the effects of fiscal insustainability on macroeconomic stability1. The second section emphasises the importance of fiscal decentralisation in federations and the SADC. The third section emphasises the current character of and changes in commodity taxation that could occur in the future. The last section attempts to give an overview with some conclusions and recommendations. If not otherwise mentioned, data and statistical resources utilised in the article are mainly from the Finance and Investment Sector Coordinating Unit (FISCU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the National Treasury of South Africa (NTSA), PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC), and the World Bank (WB). Various problems arise when one tries to analyse data from developing countries. In the case of African studies, Burkett, Humblet and Putterman (1999) state that the main problem is the unreliable nature of the available data. Different variables may be recorded for the same observation in different editions of the same source. The IMF (1998) warns that the results obtained by using data should be interpreted with caution. Before proceeding, it is therefore important to shed some light on the international status of developing countries in terms of taxation. 2 COMMODITY TAXES AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF TAX COMPETITION Commodity taxation is investigated within a tax competition context by various authors. This type of analysis is especially applicable within a process of economic integration, e.g. in a common market or economic union, and a federation. Different commodity tax rates across borders create distortions that in turn induce spillovers or externalities such as cross-border shopping. The most familiar types of commodity taxes are the single-stage retail or general sales tax (RST/GST) and the multi-stage or broad-based value-added tax (VAT). The main difference between the two entails different methods of collection, with RST on a suspensive system and VAT on a repayment system; and the tax base that is being taxed also differs. With VAT the onus is always on traders to convince the tax authorities that their claims for refunds on their inputs are justified, whereas under RST there are no such claims (the tax is levied only once at the final destination or on imports). The claims for refunds or the tax liability can be computed via subtraction, addition or tax credits (invoice method). Detailed records of purchases as well as sales have to be kept under a VAT mechanism but not under RST. Administrative difficulties may therefore occur more readily with VAT, but it is also normally implemented to curb tax evasion and corruption. VAT is also SAJEMS NS Vol 7 (2004) No 2 390 introduced for minimising “tax-on-tax” for which RST/GST is criticised. 2.1 Mintz and Tulkens (1986) Mintz and Tulkens (1986: 135) were the first to investigate commodity tax competition between independent fiscal authorities. A two-region economy (high-tax and low-tax) where an origin-based commodity tax2 is levied by each region, is investigated. The tax is levied on a private good to finance a local public service. The Nash equilibrium of these tax rates is analysed whilst all other private goods are untaxed. A single region’s market and fiscal decisions as functions of the region’s characteristics as well as of its environment, is investigated. The analysis is extended in order to consider simultaneous decisions made by the two regions. A so-called regional market equilibrium (RME) and interregional market equilibrium (NCFE) are included in the model. In these two cases, the equilibrium is fully efficient. The main reason for this is that transport costs are so high that no cross-border shopping occurs, either in equilibrium or in response to small tax changes. In these cases, none of the interregional externalities described previously appear. Wilson (1999) argues that it is difficult to describe these cases as “tax competition”, because governments are not really competing over the tax base. Not all theorists on tax competition, however, share this view. There is a two-person game and the players are local governments. The strategies are local taxes and expenditure levels, and the payoffs are the regional welfare function. Nash equilibrium is established in this two-person game in which there is collusion, i.e. a non-cooperative or competitive situation. This is referred to as a non-cooperative fiscal equilibrium (NCFE). A NCFE amongst two regions that choose optimal tax rates and public services production may not always exist due to a significant change in the fiscal or tax reaction functions. This means that a switch from one type of regime to another could occur. Differences in the regions’ government size, as well as tax levels can therefore arise from strategic behaviour and not only from differences in tastes and endowments. In the absence of interregional public service spillovers, the inefficiency of a NCFE thus arises from two types of externalities, viz.: (a) Negative private consumption effects (terms-of-trade effects) that occur when an increase in a region’s tax affects the private good purchases of the other jurisdiction’s residents; and (b) Positive public consumption effects that occurs when an increase in one region’s tax, increases the tax base of the other region (see also Bucovetsky 1995: 362). SAJEMS NS Vol 7 (2004) No 2 391 Emphasis is placed on the fact that tax competition is inefficient under the origin (source) principle in both regions and that cooperative policy measures may become essential in improving the outcome of the NCFE, in short Nash equilibrium. 2.2 Kanbur and Keen (1993) In Kanbur and Keen’s spatial model of cross-border shopping (1993: 877), it is argued that unrestricted tax competition (open borders) can take place between small and large regions (countries). The following assumptions are utilised: (a) There is a partial-equilibrium model of two countries (home and host) and a single taxed good; (b) The population is distributed uniformly in each country, but the two populations may differ in size; (c) Commodity taxes are levied on a destination basis3, and there are no barriers to the entry or exit points of new stores; and (d) The individual has two decisions to make when buying a commodity, viz. to buy in the home country or to travel to the host country with transportation costs involved. A pay-off matrix can be utilised to show the results of the different game situations. In this case, the matrix (Table 1) describes unrestricted tax competition as a “prisoners’ dilemma”. Prisoners’ dilemma is a famous case in game theory literature. Although the analysis is given in terms of commodities (cross-border shopping), the same analysis can be applied to mobile capital (Hallerberg, 1996). Table 1 Prisoner’s dilemma facing two regions on tax policy Region b Region a Confess (compete in taxes) Deny (no tax competition) Compete in taxes 3,31 6,0 No tax competition 0,6 2,2 Note: 1 These values (x, y) represent pay-offs in terms of ordinal utility between A and B (the higher the values, the better the pay-offs). In Table 1 it is shown that Nash-equilibrium (3,3) is reached where both regions A and B both compete in taxes. When small and large regions compete in SAJEMS NS Vol 7 (2004) No 2 392 taxes, both behave in a Nash manner. This means that each region chooses its own tax rate to maximise its tax revenue while assuming a fixed tax rate by the other region, bearing in mind the impact on cross-border shopping. In this equilibrium situation the small region (size relating to the number of residents) undercuts the large region because the small region’s tax rate (t) is below the large region’s tax rate (T), i.e. t