Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlyanova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 P a g e 1 | 12 ORIGINAL RESEARCH Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? Valery Chernyavskiy1, Helmut Wenzel2, Julia Mikhailova1, Alla Ivanova3, Elena Zem- lyanova3, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic4, Alexander Mikhailov1, Ulrich Laaser5 1 Federal Research Institute for Health Organisation and Informatics of the Russian Ministry of Health, Moscow, Russian Federation; 2 Independent consultant, Konstanz, Germany; 3 Institute for Demographic Research - Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation 4 University of Belgrade, Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Social Medicine, Belgrade, Serbia; 5 University of Bielefeld, Bielefeld School of Public Health, Bielefeld, Germany. Corresponding author: Prof. Dr. med. Ulrich Laaser Address: Bielefeld School of Public Health, University of Bielefeld, Germany; E-mail: Ulrich.laaser@uni-bielefeld.de Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlyanova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 P a g e 2 | 12 Abstract Aim: This study reviews the ability of the Russian Federation to reduce the high mortality until 2030 evenly across the country and in accordance with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Methods: We adopted the method suggested by Haenszel for estimating Premature Years of Life Lost for the age group <70 years and applied a projected reduction of 33% by 2030 as proposed for SDG 3.4. To calculate the potential time gap we used the model of the United Nations Devel- opment Programme and standardized the rates by the OECD 1980 Standard Population employing the direct method. Results: If Russia keeps the present level of effort the reduction by one third of the level of prem- ature mortality as in 2013 will be in reach already in 2024 i.e. 5.9 years in advance of the SDG 3 target for 2030. This target is achieved quite evenly also throughout the 8 districts of the Russian Federation between 10.6 and 5.0 years in advance and in selected special districts/republics with the highest and lowest mortality rates. Conclusion: After the steep decrease of life expectancy during the 1990ies the Russian Federation returned to the original trajectory. Keywords: gap analysis, premature mortality, public health, Russian Federation, SDG. Conflicts of interest: None declared. Statement of Funding: None declared. Note: Valery Chernyavskiy, Helmut Wenzel, Julia Mikhailova, Alla Ivanova, Elena Zemli- anova, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic, Alexander Mikhailov, Ulrich Laaser. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980ies and reach the sdgs evenly across the country? Published 13 November 2020 in parallel by: Social'nye aspekty zdorov'a naselenia / Social aspects of population health [serial online] 2020; 66(5):14; DOI: 10.21045/2071-5021- 2020-66-5-12. Available from: http://vestnik.mednet.ru/content/view/1205/30/lang,ru http://vestnik.mednet.ru/content/view/1205/30/lang,ru/ Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlyanova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 P a g e 3 | 12 Introduction The Russian Federation (RF) is with 17.1 million sqkm the largest country in the world with a population of 146 million, distributed over the territory quite unevenly. Life-expec- tancy is increasing like in most regions of the world after a steep downturn in the 1990ies (1): For Russia from 69.5 in 1988 to 64.5 years in 1994, to 65.5 in 2000 and to 72.4 in 2017, however with the highest gap world- wide between males and females (2), e.g. in 2017 67.1 vs. 77.4, a difference of 10.3 years, as compared to the European Union (3) with a life-expectancy of 80.9 and a much smaller gender gap (e.g. in 201778.3 vs. 83.5). Ac- cording to Vlassov (4), Vladimir Putin - when re-elected as president in 2018 - de- clared a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of 76 years to be achieved in 2024 and of 80 in 2030. For the calculation of premature mortality, in Russia mainly determined by Non-Com- municable Diseases (NCDs), usually a bor- derline age of <70 years is considered as up- per limit. The Sustainable Development Goals (5) ask for a reduction by one third of NCDs mortality up to 2030. For Russia as a whole this seems to be in reach as published earlier (6). In this paper we analyse the eight Federal Districts of the Russian Federation with re- gard to their premature mortality as there are: North Caucasus, South, Privolzhskiy (Volga), Far East, Uralskiy, Siberian, Cen- tral, and North West Federal Districts. In ad- dition, we determine whether each of the eight districts is on track to reach the SDG target by 2030. Furthermore we also try to an- alyse selected subunits e.g. oblasts as the Russian Federation consists in total of 85 subjects, including 22 Republics (for exam- ple Karelia, Altai, Tatarstan, Chechnia etc.), 9 Territories (e.g. Perm territory), 46 regions (e.g. Kaliningrad region), cities of federal significance (e.g. Moscow and Sankt Peters- burg), 1 Autonomous oblast (Jewish Autono- mous region) and 4 Autonomous districts (Chukotka, Yamalo-Nenets, Khanty- Mansijsk (Yugra), and Nenets). However, in this paper we do not consider a possible im- pact of the Corona pandemic in 2020 but plan to do that on the basis of reliable figures later. Methods We adopted the method suggested by Haenszel (7) for estimating Premature Years of Life Lost (PYLL) <70 years of age and ap- plied a projected reduction of 33% by 2030 as proposed by the United Nations for SDG 3.4 targeting Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD) (5) which make up for 87% of the to- tal mortality in Russia (8). We gave prefer- ence to the determination of PYLL instead of Life Expectancy (LE) to avoid the instability of the highest age-groups. As for other components of total mortality: In Russia the levels of the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR, SDG 3.1) and Neonatal Mor- tality Rate (NMR, SDG 3.2), are already well below the UN targets (70 for MMR and 12 for NMR): MMR 17/100.000 live births; NMR 5.4/1.000 live births. SDG 3.3 refers to Communicable Diseases (5% of total mor- tality incl. MMR and NMR) and SDG 3.6 to Road Traffic Accidents (8% of total mortal- ity) for which reductions between appr. 30% and 90% are defined. In conclusion we con- sider it justified to apply an overall reduction by 1/3 to the total mortality until 2030, with reference to the years 2013, 2015 (estimated), and 2018. Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlyanova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 P a g e 4 | 12 To calculate the time gap (G), i.e. the time needed to achieve an agreed target deadline related to the time remaining between the year of observation and the target year, we use the mathematical model of the United Nations Development Programme (9). The likelihood of achieving the SDG target 2030 will be determined by the indicators’ time gap, i.e. the time remaining to achieve an agreed target, according to the following equations: [1]Tr = tt − tc and: [2]Tn = tt − [tb + (tt − tb) ( xc – xb) / (xt – xb)] Then the resulting time-gap G is calculated as: [3]G = Tr − Tn Tr - remaining time Tn - time needed to achieve the target (in linear progress) xb - baseline value of the indicator xt - target value of the indicator xc - observed value of the indicator G - time gap (gain or delay) tt - target year tc- year of observation tb - baseline year A positive time-gap G indicates that the re- spective country is “On Track” to achieve the target on time or even earlier; a negative value indicates that it may still be “Likely” or even “Unlikely” to achieve the target within the target timeframe i.e. in 2030. A country is still considered likely to achieve the target as long as a negative value for G does not make up for less than -25% of the remaining time Tr i.e. the relative Gap Gr is: Gr = G / Tr>= - 0.25. We standardized the rates by the OECD 1980 Standard Population (10) (Annex 1) employ- ing the direct method (e.g. Armitage (11). For details of the calculation see also Chernyavskiy et al. (6). The Federal Research Institute for Health Or- ganization and Informatics of the Russian Ministry of Health provided the demographic data (Annex 1 and 2) which are used to cal- culate the time gap for SDG 3 of the entire Russian Federation and separately for the 8 districts. On the basis of these data we ana- lyze the age groups 0-<70, 0-<30, and 30-<70 as well as both sexes together and separate. For the determination of the gap in 2024 and 2030 and the analysis of the trajectory 1960- 2030, based on life expectancy data, we made use of the database of the World Bank (1) and identified the peak data before and after the crisis during the 1990ies. Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlyanova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 P a g e 5 | 12 Results If Russia keeps the present level of effort to improve the life of the Russian citizens a re- duction of one third of the level of premature mortality as in 2013 will be in reach already in 2024 (Table 1) i.e. 6.1 years in advance of the SDG 3 target for 2030, here applied not only to NCD mortality in general but to the overall premature mortality before age 70. Table 1. Projected reduction of Premature Years of Life Lost (PYLL) targeted 2013-2030 Russian Federation and Federal Districts PYLL/ 100,000 2013* PYLL/ 100,000 2018 PYLL/ 100,000 Target 2030 based on 2013 Years up to 2030 in 2018 Years needed as of 2018 Years in ad- vance/de- lay of 2030 Gr to be >= -0.25 EU-27 (for comparison) 3,243 3,066 2,162 12 14.2 -2.2 -0.18 RUSSIAN FEDERA- TION 0-<70 years of age 10,313 8,060 6,875 12 5.9 6.1 0.51 0-<30 years of age 6,283 4,043 4,189 12 -1.2 13.2 1.10 30-<70 years of age 15,073 12,881 10,049 12 9.6 2.4 0.20 Males 0-<70 15,137 11,480 10,091 12 4.7 7.3 0.61 Females 0-<70 5,809 4,689 3,873 12 7.2 4.8 0.40 FEDERAL DIS- TRICTS: North Caucasus 7,153 4,970 4,769 12 1.4 10.6 0.88 South 8,351 6,032 5,567 12 2.8 9.2 0.76 Privolzhskiy (Volga) 10,010 7,295 6,667 12 3.2 8.8 0.73 Far East 12,529 9,203 8,352 12 3.5 8.5 0.71 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlyanova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 P a g e 6 | 12 * For Sevastopol 2015-2020 All districts reach the target in advance of 2030, the District of North Caucasus 10.6 years earlier and the North West District still 5 years in advance of 2030. For comparison, the progress of the EU-27 has been calcu- lated which - at a considerably lower level - shows smaller rates of reduction and there- fore a delay of -2.2 years in 2030. Already in 2016 Russia achieved the corre- sponding target for the younger age group 0- <29 years of age and needs only 9.6 years to reach the target in the elder group 30-<70. For males the target will be achieved 7.3 years in advance i.e. in 2022 and for females 4.8 years in advance. The example of males and females 0-<70 is used in Table 2 to demonstrate the level of uncertainty. The av- eraged trend we use is a conservative esti- mate between the straight continuation of the trend 2013-2018 and the target line for 2030. Uralskiy 11,910 9,032 7,940 12 4.7 7.3 0.61 Siberian 11,829 9,133 7,885 12 5.4 6.6 0.55 Central 9,322 7,272 6,208 12 5.8 6.2 0.52 North West 9,726 7,824 6,483 12 7.0 5.0 0.41 SPECIAL TERRI- TORIES: Crimea 0-<70 9,730 8,388 6,480 12 11.6 0.4 0.03 Sevastopol 0-<70 10,085 7,252 6,723 12 9.6 2.4 0.80 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlyanova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 P a g e 7 | 12 Table 2. Projected reduction of Premature Years of Life Lost (PYLL) targeted 2013-2030 for both sexes separately with levels of uncertainty Trend projections Males 0-<70 PYLL/100,000 Females 0-<70 PYLL/100,000 Targets based on 2013 reduced by 1/3 10,091 3,873 Averaged estimate of trends 8,957 3,721 Corresponding to 7.3 years in advance of 2030 for males and 4.8 years for females (see Table 1) Straight projection of the trend 2013- 2018 to 2030 7,823 3,569 As the SDGs have been accepted in 2015/16 (2) we applied the 1/3 reduction in addition to the baseline in 2013 also to the data esti- mated for 2015 as an average of 2013 and 2018, and to the data of 2018 which consti- tutes a more demanding i.e. lower target for 2030 (Annex 4a and b). However, the gen- eral impression is the same in that still all fed- eral districts would achieve the target before 2030 whether the 1/3 reduction is based on 2015 or 2018. Furthermore we applied differ- ent baselines for the entire Russian Federa- tion, namely also 2003 and 2009 (Annex 4c), which predict likewise an achievement of the targets before 2030. A look at the presidential targets, formulated as improvements in Life Expectancy (LE), demonstrates that targeted achievements in 2024 and 2030 are possible with only small delays of 0.9 and 1.3 years respectively (Annex 4d). Finally we show data for smaller subunits i.e. the 4 oblasts with the highest mortality and 4 Republics/Autonomous Districts with the lowest mortality (Annex 5). The Uralskiy District contains the highest as well as one of the lowest ranking oblasts. Although the rates are already considerably lower in the Cauca- sian republics, they show similar reductions of mortality as indicated for the North Cau- casus in table 1, in other words the positive developments seem to be similar across the entire Russian Federation. Discussion The Gap-analysis shows clearly that all dis- tricts of the Russian Federation are in line and will reach the targeted reduction of premature mortality several years before 2030. It is astonishing how the Russian Federation man- aged to continue the upward trend of the late 1980ies after the catastrophic down-turn in the mid-nineties (1), an observation which has been noted already very early in 2003 (12). An explanation may be a short-termed ‘Glasgow-effect’ (13), the observation that life expectancy is persistently much lower in Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlyanova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 P a g e 8 | 12 one district of Glasgow than in the rest of the United Kingdom, likely due to persisting so- cial deprivation. The deprivation of the mid- nineties has obviously been overcome in the early 2000s contrary to the United Kingdom, taking the example of Glasgow. Neverthe- less, Russia had and has higher levels of mor- tality than the EU average, a situation that persists until today (3). The decrease in PYLL began to slow down in the second half of the last decade. Whereas the trajectory 2003-2018-2030 results in a Gap Ratio of 0.71 allowing to reach the target already in 2021, for the trajectory 2013-2018-2030 (used in the main body of this paper) we get a Gap Ratio of 0.51 corresponding to 2023 or 6.1 years in advance of 2030. Accordingly Gr is further reduced if we base the target calcu- lation on the observation year 2018, however, still the 2030 target will be reached at least 2.8 years in advance. In the formula (9), as described above, the factor (xc − xb) / (xt – xb) determines the pro- portion of the remaining time to achieve the targets. The higher the baseline value (com- pared to the observed value) the faster the tar- geted reduction is achieved, and the lower the baseline, the flatter is the projected line of re- duction. This phenomenon follows the rule of “Diminishing Marginal Returns” as Varian (14) states: “…the marginal product of a fac- tor will diminish as we get more and more of that factor”. Depending where a combination of input/output is located on a production curve, i.e. in a steep or more flatten part of the curve, the effectivity of the input will be higher or lower. To maintain nevertheless the same size of the product it would require more and more resources or time. The latter applies to the situation wherein we find the EU27: The projection of its trajectory 2013- 2018 to 3030 is flatter than required and leads to a delay of at least -2.2 years or more whereas the corresponding trajectory of the RF is much steeper and indicates an earlier achievement by at least +6.1 years. There are other reasons to be skeptical about the future of the recent steep increase in Rus- sian life expectancy. In adulthood - e.g. at age 30 to <70 years –the PYLL rate did not de- crease to a degree comparable to the younger age group under 30 years of age according to the data presented in Table 1. This means that although Russia went through the epide- miological transition already in the mid-20th century, progress in the prevention and man- agement of chronic conditions remained weak. The initial question, posed in the headline of this paper, is whether the Russian Federation returned to the trajectory of 1988. Based on the LE data of the World Bank (1) the calcu- lations presented in Table 3 demonstrate that this question can be answered positively: Af- ter the nineties Russia returned to the earlier trajectory. Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlyanova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 P a g e 9 | 12 Table 3. Life Expectancy at birth according to the trajectory 1960-1988 for the Russian Federation targeting 2017 and 2030 along the same trajectory Year 1960 1988 Improve- ment of LE 1988-1960 per 10 years 2017 LE target based on 1960-1988 2017 LE ob- served 2030 LE target based on 1960-1988 Gap- anal- ysis 1960- 1988-2030 Life Ex- pectancy (LE) 66.1 69.5 +1.2 72.9 72.4 74.5 0.3 years in advance; Gr = +0.01 The objective of increasing the longevity of Russian people has been an important ele- ment of state policy for the past 18 years. The current Health and Demography national pro- jects are aimed at improving the performance of health services and to raise the living standards of the Russian citizens in such a way that they not only live longer but lead active lives in decent conditions. Russia plans to spend 1.7 trillion rubles ($26.68 bil- lion) on dramatically improving health care to accomplish the goal of raising life expec- tancy. These plans may be even accelerated given the devastating effects of the COVID- 19 pandemic (15). Conclusion The Russian Federation is on track with re- gard to SDG 3 and very likely will have re- duced its mortality rates calculated as PYLL by one third as of 2013. This is mainly due to a steep improvement in the age group 0-<30, a success which occurred after the deep de- crease of life expectancy in the mid-nineties. The impressive improvement occurred quite evenly throughout the 8 administrative dis- tricts of the Russian Federation, between North Caucasus best and the North West dis- trict still in advance. Also the smaller subu- nits (oblasts or republics) obviously follow the same trajectories whether ranking highest or lowest regarding their mortality rates. In summary after the steep decrease of life ex- pectancy during the 1990ies the Russian Fed- eration returned to the original trajectory. Key-points:  During the 1990ies Russia experi- enced a steep decrease of Life Ex- pectancy from 69.5 in 1988 to 64.5 years in 1994.  Since the 2000nds Premature Years of Life Lost as well as Life Expec- tancy improved again so that Russia is likely to reach the SDG target of mortality reduction by 1/3 in 2030.  The reduction of premature mortality is with some variation evenly distrib- uted across all eight Federal Districts Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlyanova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 P a g e 10 | 12 of the Russian Federation and subu- nits with highest or lowest mortality rates.  The positive trajectory of the 1980ies has been regained during the 2010s. References 1. World Bank. 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Nat Med 2020;26:640-2. doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0863-y. _________________________________________________________________________________________ © 2020 Chernyavskiy et al; This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.pmedr.2016.08.004 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlyanova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 P a g e 12 | 12 ANNEXED DATA The annexed data are attached to this PDF (left upper corner of the screen). Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 1 | P a g e Annex 1a): Reference population and demographic data for the Russian Federation Age group Total Total (%) Age groups (%) (0-69 years) Males Females 0-4 80,269,483 8.12 0.09 41,086,449 39,183,034 5-9 84,285,393 8.52 0.09 43,136,842 41,148,551 10-14 85,828,597 8.68 0.09 43,940,121 41,888,476 15-19 87,597,591 8.86 0.10 44,669,180 42,928,411 20-24 82,619,776 8.36 0.09 41,732,681 40,887,095 25-29 77,252,661 7.81 0.08 38,886,927 38,365,734 30-34 73,604,119 7.44 0.08 37,039,695 36,564,424 35-39 61,676,142 6.24 0.07 30,868,724 30,807,418 40-44 57,394,499 5.80 0.06 28,587,578 28,806,921 45-49 54,245,506 5.49 0.06 26,895,533 27,349,973 50-54 52,537,987 5.31 0.06 25,502,142 27,035,845 55-59 48,323,994 4.89 0.05 22,432,778 25,891,216 60-64 36,727,063 3.71 0.04 16,649,007 20,078,056 65-69 36,887,734 3.73 0.04 16,137,708 20,750,026 Subtotal 919,250,545 92.97 1.00 457,565,365 461,685,180 >= 70 years 69,516,189 7.031 Total 988,766,734 100 OECD Population as of 1980 used as reference population Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 2 | P a g e Age group Total Total (%) Age groups (%) (0-69 years) Males Females 0-4 8,793,034 6.13 0.07 4,513,291 4,279,743 5-9 7,551,503 5.26 0.06 3,865,465 3,686,038 10-14 6,755,921 4.71 0.05 3,462,421 3,293,500 15-19 7,053,773 4.92 0.05 3,608,288 3,445,485 20-24 10,409,834 7.25 0.08 5,300,635 5,109,200 25-29 12,539,045 8.74 0.10 6,323,823 6,215,222 30-34 11,503,330 8.02 0.09 5,734,091 5,769,239 35-39 10,536,322 7.34 0.08 5,145,843 5,390,480 40-44 9,656,787 6.73 0.07 4,689,062 4,967,725 45-49 9,365,913 6.53 0.07 4,444,476 4,921,438 50-54 11,310,282 7.88 0.09 5,204,737 6,105,546 55-59 10,508,049 7.32 0.08 4,587,152 5,920,897 60-64 8,819,230 6.15 0.07 3,635,352 5,183,878 65-69 4,861,126 3.39 0.04 1,877,878 2,983,249 Subtotal 129,664,146 90.35 1 62,392,510 67,271,637 >= 70 years 13,842,849 9.65 Total 143,506,995 100 Russian Federation Population as of 2013 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 3 | P a g e Age group Total Total (%) Age groups (%) (0-69 years) Males Females 0-4 9,050,624 0.06 6.90 4,652,417 4,398,207 5-9 8,836,526 0.06 6.74 4,535,274 4,301,252 10-14 7,591,733 0.05 5.79 3,885,862 3,705,871 15-19 6,784,546 0.05 5.18 3,468,156 3,316,390 20-24 7,112,528 0.05 5.43 3,625,761 3,486,767 25-29 10,511,622 0.07 8.02 5,354,210 5,157,412 30-34 12,537,872 0.09 9.57 6,290,436 6,247,436 35-39 11,397,288 0.08 8.70 5,629,199 5,768,089 40-44 10,359,339 0.07 7.90 4,995,282 5,364,057 45-49 9,437,707 0.07 7.20 4,515,230 4,922,477 50-54 9,050,420 0.06 6.90 4,200,786 4,849,634 55-59 10,756,648 0.07 8.21 4,792,508 5,964,140 60-64 9,737,757 0.07 7.43 4,045,900 5,691,857 65-69 7,912,023 0.05 6.04 3,043,166 4,868,857 Subtotal 131,076,633 0.91 100 63,034,187 68,042,446 >= 70 years 13,401,216 9.276 Total 144,477,849 100 Russian Federation Population as of 2018 (without Crimea & Sevastopol) Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 4 | P a g e Age group Total Total (%) Age groups (%) (0-69 years) Males Females 0-4 18,550 0.99 2.17 10,567 7,982 5-9 1,878 0.10 0.22 1,120 758 10-14 1,930 0.10 0.23 1,234 696 15-19 5,478 0.29 0.64 3,930 1,549 20-24 15,314 0.82 1.80 12,034 3,280 25-29 29,729 1.59 3.49 22,980 6,750 30-34 44,424 2.37 5.21 33,885 10,539 35-39 51,038 2.73 5.98 38,699 12,340 40-44 53,882 2.88 6.32 39,702 14,180 45-49 68,119 3.64 7.99 49,808 18,312 50-54 111,658 5.97 13.09 80,673 30,985 55-59 146,852 7.85 17.22 101,408 45,444 60-64 177,781 9.50 20.84 118,451 59,330 65-69 126,244 6.74 14.80 76,787 49,458 Subtotal 852,878 45.56 100 591,277 261,601 >= 70 years 1,018,931 54.436 Total 1,871,809 100 Number of Deaths, Russian Federation as of 2013 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 5 | P a g e Study Population (Russian Federation) Deaths Population (OECD 1980) Crude Rate Expected deaths (Standard Pop.) PYLL Age Groups di pi STD Pi ri = di/pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di* (Remaining Years to Upper Age Limit) 0-4 10,565 9,050,624 80,269,483 0.00117 93,698 6,316,727 5-9 1,624 8,836,526 84,285,393 0.00018 15,494 966,888 10-14 1,912 7,591,733 85,828,597 0.00025 21,617 1,240,846 15-19 4,073 6,784,546 87,597,591 0.00060 52,592 2,755,719 20-24 7,026 7,112,528 82,619,776 0.00099 81,614 3,874,045 25-29 15,858 10,511,622 77,252,661 0.00151 116,545 4,952,301 Sum 41,058 49,887,579 497,853,501 0.00078 381,559 20,126,858.00 Standardized rate (per 100 000) 76.64 4,042.73 Russian Federation Age Groups 0-29 Standardized death rates 2018 Direct standardization Study Population (Russian Federation) Deaths Population (OECD 1980) Crude Rate Expected deaths (Standard Pop.) PYLL Age Groups di pi STD Pi ri = di/pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di* (Remaining Years to Upper Age Limit) 0-4 18,550 8,793,034 80,269,483 0.00211 169,338 11,430,295 5-9 1,878 7,551,503 84,285,393 0.00025 20,957 1,309,802 10-14 1,930 6,755,921 85,828,597 0.00029 24,520 1,409,873 15-19 5,478 7,053,773 87,597,591 0.00078 68,034 3,571,808 20-24 15,314 10,409,834 82,619,776 0.00147 121,542 5,773,229 25-29 29,729 12,539,045 77,252,661 0.00237 183,161 7,784,361 Sum 72,879 53,103,108 497,853,501 0.00121 587,552 31,279,367.54 Standardized rate (per 100 000) 118.02 6,282.85 Russian Federation Age Groups 0-29 Standardized death rates 2013 Direct standardization Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 6 | P a g e Study Population (Russian Federation) Deaths Population (OECD 1980) Crude Rate Expected deaths (Standard Pop.) PYLL Age Groups di pi STD Pi ri = di/pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di* (Remaining Years to Upper Age Limit) 30-34 44,424 11,503,330 73,604,119 0.00386 284,247 10,659,263 35-39 51,038 10,536,322 61,676,142 0.00484 298,762 9,709,774 40-44 53,882 9,656,787 57,394,499 0.00558 320,243 8,806,685 45-49 68,119 9,365,913 54,245,506 0.00727 394,534 8,877,020 50-54 111,658 11,310,282 52,537,987 0.00987 518,668 9,076,695 55-59 146,852 10,508,049 48,323,994 0.01398 675,339 8,441,739 60-64 177,781 8,819,230 36,727,063 0.02016 740,355 5,552,659 65-69 126,244 4,861,126 36,887,734 0.02597 957,981 2,394,951 Sum 779,999 76,561,038 421,397,044 0.01144 4,190,129 63,518,786.64 Standardized rate (per 100 000) 994.34 15,073.38 Russian Federation Age Groups 30-69 Standardized death rates 2013 Direct standardization Study Population (Russian Federation) Deaths Population (OECD 1980) Crude Rate Expected deaths (Standard Pop.) PYLL Age Groups di pi STD Pi ri = di/pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di* (Remaining Years to Upper Age Limit) 30-34 31,700 12,537,872 73,604,119 0.00253 186,094 6,978,526 35-39 46,057 11,397,288 61,676,142 0.00404 249,236 8,100,156 40-44 54,854 10,359,339 57,394,499 0.00530 303,911 8,357,561 45-49 60,855 9,437,707 54,245,506 0.00645 349,779 7,870,031 50-54 79,395 9,050,420 52,537,987 0.00877 460,892 8,065,619 55-59 133,886 10,756,648 48,323,994 0.01245 601,481 7,518,515 60-64 177,631 9,737,757 36,727,063 0.01824 669,957 5,024,674 65-69 203,002 7,912,023 36,887,734 0.02566 946,444 2,366,111 Sum 787,381 81,189,054 421,397,044 0.01043 3,767,795 54,281,192.39 Standardized rate (per 100 000) 894.12 12,881.25 Russian Federation Age Groups 30-69 Standardized death rates 2018 Direct standardization Without Crimea and Sevastopol Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 7 | P a g e Study Population (Russian Federation) Deaths males Population males (OECD 1980) males Crude Rate males Expected deaths (Standard Pop.) males PYLL Age Groups di pi STD Pi ri = di/pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di* (Remaining Years to Upper Age Limit) males 0-4 10,567 4,513,291 41,086,449 0.00234 96,199.80 6,493,487 5-9 1,120 3,865,465 43,136,842 0.00029 12,496.00 781,002 10-14 1,234 3,462,421 43,940,121 0.00036 15,663.30 900,641 15-19 3,930 3,608,288 44,669,180 0.00109 48,648.30 2,554,034 20-24 12,034 5,300,635 41,732,681 0.00227 94,746.80 4,500,475 25-29 22,980 6,323,823 38,886,927 0.00363 141,308.60 6,005,616 30-34 33,885 5,734,091 37,039,695 0.00591 218,882.80 8,208,104 35-39 38,699 5,145,843 30,868,724 0.00752 232,143.80 7,544,673 40-44 39,702 4,689,062 28,587,578 0.00847 242,048.20 6,656,327 45-49 49,808 4,444,476 26,895,533 0.01121 301,409.60 6,781,716 50-54 80,673 5,204,737 25,502,142 0.0155 395,281.50 6,917,426 55-59 101,408 4,587,152 22,432,778 0.02211 495,921.80 6,199,023 60-64 118,451 3,635,352 16,649,007 0.03258 542,474.80 4,068,561 65-69 76,787 1,877,878 16,137,708 0.04089 659,871.90 1,649,680 Sum 591,277 62,392,510 457,565,365 0.01101 3,497,097 69,260,763.68 Standardized rate (per 100 000) 764.28 15,136.80 Russian Federation Standardized death rates 2013 males Direct standardization Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 8 | P a g e Study Population (Russian Federation) Deaths females Population females (OECD 1980) females Crude Rate females Expected deaths (Standard Pop.) females PYLL Age Groups di pi STD Pi ri = di/pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di* (Remaining Years to Upper Age Limit) females 0-4 7,982 4,279,743 39,183,034 0.00187 73,083 4,933,134 5-9 758 3,686,038 41,148,551 0.00021 8,460 528,762 10-14 696 3,293,500 3,293,500 41,888,476 0.00021 8,849 508,837 15-19 1,549 3,445,485 42,928,411 0.00045 19,296 1,013,056 20-24 3,280 5,109,200 40,887,095 0.00064 26,246 1,246,696 25-29 6,750 6,215,222 38,365,734 0.00109 41,664 1,770,737 30-34 10,539 5,769,239 36,564,424 0.00183 66,794 2,504,757 35-39 12,340 5,390,480 30,807,418 0.00229 70,524 2,292,044 40-44 14,180 4,967,725 28,806,921 0.00285 82,227 2,261,244 45-49 18,312 4,921,438 27,349,973 0.00372 101,763 2,289,678 50-54 30,985 6,105,546 27,035,845 0.00507 137,204 2,401,064 55-59 45,444 5,920,897 25,891,216 0.00768 198,721 2,484,010 60-64 59,330 5,183,878 20,078,056 0.01145 229,795 1,723,460 65-69 49,458 2,983,249 20,750,026 0.01658 344,004 860,010 Sum 261,601 67,271,637 461,685,180 1,408,631 26,817,489.06 Standardized rate (per 100 000) 305.11 5,808.61 Russian Federation Standardized death rates 2013 females Direct standardization Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 9 | P a g e Study Population (Russian Federation) Deaths males Population males (OECD 1980) males Crude Rate males Expected deaths (Standard Pop.) males PYLL Age Groups di pi STD Pi ri = di/pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di* (Remaining Years to Upper Age Limit) males 0-4 6,004 4,652,417 41,086,449 0.00129 0.00021 0.00031 0.00082 0.00146 0.00222 0.00374 0.00597 0.00793 0.00959 0.01345 0.01929 0.02945 0.04069 0.00974 53,021.0 3,578,915 5-9 963 4,535,274 43,136,842 0.00021 9,157.5 572,345 10-14 1,198 3,885,862 43,940,121 0.00031 13,552.0 779,238 15-19 2,829 3,468,156 44,669,180 0.00082 36,439.3 1,913,063 20-24 5,295 3,625,761 41,732,681 0.00146 60,949.8 2,895,115 25-29 11,860 5,354,210 38,886,927 0.00222 86,140.9 3,660,988 30-34 23,498 6,290,436 37,039,695 0.00374 138,364.4 5,188,665 35-39 33,579 5,629,199 30,868,724 0.00597 184,135.6 5,984,408 40-44 39,606 4,995,282 4,995,282 4,995,282 28,587,578 0.00793 226,659.8 6,233,143 45-49 43,288 4,515,230 26,895,533 0.00959 257,848.3 5,801,588 50-54 56,512 4,200,786 25,502,142 0.01345 343,074.5 6,003,803 55-59 92,468 4,792,508 22,432,778 0.01929 432,822.4 5,410,279 60-64 119,151 4,045,900 16,649,007 0.02945 490,310.9 3,677,332 65-69 123,829 3,043,166 16,137,708 0.04069 656,659.4 830,510 Sum 560,081 63,034,187 457,565,365 0.00974 2,989,136 52,529,392.22 Standardized rate (per 100 000) 653.27 11,480.19 Russian Federation Standardized death rates 2018 males Direct standardization Without Crimea and Sevastopol Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 10 | P a g e Study Population (Russian Federation) Deaths females Population females (OECD 1980) females Crude Rate females Expected deaths (Standard Pop.) females PYLL Age Groups di pi STD Pi ri = di/pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di* (Remaining Years to Upper Age Limit) females 0-4 4,559 4,398,207 39,183,034 0.00104 40,615 2,741,509 5-9 656 4,301,252 41,148,551 0.00015 6,272 391,992 10-14 707 3,705,871 41,888,476 0.00019 7,987 459,276 15-19 1,238 3,316,390 42,928,411 0.00037 16,027 841,402 20-24 1,724 3,486,767 40,887,095 0.00049 20,211 960,035 25-29 3,973 5,157,412 38,365,734 0.00077 29,552 1,255,968 30-34 8,133 6,247,436 36,564,424 0.00130 47,603 1,785,098 35-39 12,309 5,768,089 30,807,418 0.00213 65,744 2,136,675 40-44 14,938 5,364,057 28,806,921 0.00278 80,221 2,206,069 45-49 17,108 4,922,477 27,349,973 0.00348 95,053 2,138,688 50-54 22,275 4,849,634 27,035,845 0.00459 124,182 2,173,180 55-59 40,680 5,964,140 25,891,216 0.00682 176,599 2,207,488 60-64 57,538 5,691,857 20,078,056 0.01011 202,965 1,522,234 65-69 77,949 4,868,857 20,750,026 0.01601 332,204 830,510 Sum 263,786 68,042,446 461,685,180 0.00359 1,245,234 21,650,123.93 Standardized rate (per 100 000) 269.71 4,689.37 Russian Federation Standardized death rates 2018 females Direct standardization Without Crimea and Sevastopol Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 11 | P a g e Annex 1b): Demographic data for EU-27 (2013 – 2018) Population 2013 Age group Total Males Females 0-4 26,367,688 13,522,230 12,845,458 5-9 26,055,719 13,361,936 12,693,783 10-14 26,002,566 13,336,156 12,666,410 15-19 27,170,288 13,932,044 13,238,244 20-24 30,484,999 15,517,232 14,967,767 25-29 31,881,413 16,078,060 15,803,353 30-34 33,931,920 17,054,549 16,877,371 35-39 34,909,609 17,560,009 17,349,600 40-44 36,790,201 18,454,921 18,335,280 45-49 37,384,521 18,679,726 18,704,795 50-54 35,350,828 17,498,896 17,851,932 55-59 32,830,780 16,022,787 16,807,993 60-64 30,566,866 14,692,794 15,874,072 65-69 25,481,804 12,022,423 13,459,381 Subtotal 435,209,202 217,733,763 217,475,439 >= 70 years 65,691,666 Total 500,900,868 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 12 | P a g e Population 2018 Age group Total Males Females 0-4 25,936,779 13,091,321 12,845,458 5-9 26,581,279 13,887,496 12,693,783 10-14 26,308,664 13,642,254 12,666,410 15-19 27,011,063 13,772,819 13,238,244 20-24 30,484,999 15,517,232 14,967,767 25-29 31,881,413 16,078,060 15,803,353 30-34 33,931,920 17,054,549 16,877,371 35-39 34,909,609 17,560,009 17,349,600 40-44 36,790,201 18,454,921 18,335,280 45-49 37,384,521 18,679,726 18,704,795 50-54 35,350,828 17,498,896 17,851,932 55-59 32,830,780 16,022,787 16,807,993 60-64 30,566,866 14,692,794 15,874,072 65-69 25,481,804 12,022,423 13,459,381 Subtotal 435,450,726 217,975,287 217,475,439 >= 70 years 72,815,781 Total 508,266,507 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 13 | P a g e Direct standardization Study Population (EUROPE-27) Deaths Population (OECD 1980) Crude Rate Expected deaths (Standard Pop.) PYLL Age Groups di pi STD Pi ri = di/pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di* (Remaining Years to Upper Age Limit) 0-4 22,551 26,367,688 80,269,483 0.00086 68,651 4,633,914 5-9 2,404 26,055,719 84,285,393 0.00009 7,776 486,031 10-14 2,649 26,002,566 85,828,597 0.00010 8,744 502,766 15-19 7,280 27,170,288 87,597,591 0.00027 23,471 1,232,221 20-24 12,239 30,484,999 82,619,776 0.00040 33,170 1,575,569 25-29 15,212 31,881,413 77,252,661 0.00048 36,861 1,566,575 30-34 20,527 33,931,920 73,604,119 0.00060 44,527 1,669,746 35-39 30,890 34,909,609 61,676,142 0.00088 54,575 1,773,673 40-44 51,336 36,790,201 57,394,499 0.00140 80,087 2,202,383 45-49 87,021 37,384,521 54,245,506 0.00233 126,269 2,841,048 50-54 139,002 35,350,828 52,537,987 0.00393 206,583 3,615,205 55-59 208,505 32,830,780 48,323,994 0.00635 306,901 3,836,261 60-64 288,697 30,566,866 36,727,063 0.00944 346,879 2,601,590 65-69 351,949 25,481,804 36,887,734 0.01381 509,485 1,273,713 Sum 1,240,262 435,209,202 919,250,545 0.00292 1,853,977 29,810,693.11 Standardized rate (per 100 000) 201.68 3,242.93 EUROPE 27 Standardized death rates 2013 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 14 | P a g e Study Population (EUROPE-27) Deaths Population (OECD 1980) Crude Rate Expected deaths (Standard Pop.) PYLL Age Groups di pi STD Pi ri = di/pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di* (Remaining Years to Upper Age Limit) 0-4 20,568 25,936,779 80,269,483 0.00079 63,654 4,296,653 5-9 2,131 26,581,279 84,285,393 0.00008 6,757 422,318 10-14 2,620 26,308,664 85,828,597 0.00010 8,547 491,476 15-19 6,753 27,011,063 87,597,591 0.00025 21,900 1,149,758 20-24 10,496 30,484,999 82,619,776 0.00034 28,446 1,351,186 25-29 14,067 31,881,413 77,252,661 0.00044 34,086 1,448,659 30-34 19,823 33,931,920 73,604,119 0.00058 42,999 1,612,480 35-39 29,729 34,909,609 61,676,142 0.00085 52,523 1,707,009 40-44 47,033 36,790,201 57,394,499 0.00128 73,374 2,017,778 45-49 79,064 37,384,521 54,245,506 0.00211 114,723 2,581,269 50-54 129,631 35,350,828 52,537,987 0.00367 192,656 3,371,481 55-59 200,067 32,830,780 48,323,994 0.00609 294,481 3,681,011 60-64 292,481 30,566,866 36,727,063 0.00957 351,425 2,635,689 65-69 392,665 25,481,804 36,887,734 0.01541 568,426 1,421,065 Sum 1,247,128 435,450,726 919,250,545 0.00297 1,853,999 28,187,834.47 Standardized rate (per 100 000) 201.69 3,066.39 EUROPE 27 Standardized death rates 2018 Direct standardization Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 15 | P a g e Annex 2): Demographic data for Crimea and Sevastopol 2015 – 2018 Age group Total Total (%) Males Females 0-4 117,804 6.13 60,691 57,113 5-9 108,083 5.62 55,308 52,775 10-14 84,242 4.38 43,248 40,994 15-19 81,483 4.24 41,866 39,617 20-24 106,545 5.54 54,411 52,134 25-29 152,380 7.93 76,975 75,405 30-34 152,465 7.93 76,831 75,634 35-39 136,698 7.11 68,023 68,675 40-44 125,490 6.53 60,553 64,937 45-49 117,916 6.13 55,540 62,376 50-54 138,461 7.20 63,119 75,342 55-59 146,255 7.61 63,420 82,835 60-64 133,454 5.12 54,820 78,634 65-69 98,440 5.12 37,530 60,910 Subtotal 1,699,716 86.60 812,335 887,381 >= 70 years 222,524 11.576 Total 1,922,240 98 Population of Crimea as of 2015 Source: Копия pop-deaths-Crimea 15-18.xlsx Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 16 | P a g e Age group Total Total (%) Males Females 0-4 113,197 0.06 58,121 55,076 5-9 118,013 0.06 60,779 57,234 10-14 98,431 0.05 50,333 48,098 15-19 78,903 0.04 40,501 38,402 20-24 89,382 0.05 46,032 43,350 25-29 127,652 0.07 64,635 63,017 30-34 162,655 0.08 81,839 80,816 35-39 145,774 0.08 73,020 72,754 40-44 132,382 0.07 64,605 67,777 45-49 121,248 0.06 57,587 63,661 50-54 120,690 0.06 55,323 65,367 55-59 143,834 0.07 63,187 80,647 60-64 137,752 0.07 56,726 81,026 65-69 119,098 0.06 45,890 73,208 Subtotal 1,709,011 0.88 818,578 890,433 >= 70 years 222,440 11.517 Total 1,931,451 100 Population of Crimea as of 2018 Source: Копия pop-deaths-Crimea 15-18.xlsx Age group Total Total (%) Males Females 0-4 182 0.63 104 78 5-9 24 0.08 12 12 10-14 25 0.09 16 9 15-19 48 0.17 33 15 20-24 130 0.45 93 37 25-29 283 0.97 222 61 30-34 454 1.56 325 129 35-39 647 2.22 482 165 40-44 824 2.83 597 227 45-49 981 3.37 719 262 50-54 1,465 5.04 1,038 427 55-59 2,090 7.19 1,413 677 60-64 2,807 9.65 1,835 972 65-69 2,629 9.04 1,526 1,103 Subtotal 12,589 43.28 8,415 4,174 >= 70 years 16,499 56.721 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 17 | P a g e Total 29,088 100 258,475 270,288 Number of Deaths Crimea as of 2015 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 18 | P a g e Age group Total Total (%) Males Females 0-4 105 0.39 50 55 5-9 24 0.09 12 12 10-14 18 0.07 8 10 15-19 49 0.18 38 11 20-24 88 0.33 61 27 25-29 193 0.71 150 43 30-34 426 1.58 318 108 35-39 608 2.25 439 169 40-44 817 3.03 590 227 45-49 966 3.58 681 285 50-54 1,112 4.12 798 314 55-59 1,812 6.71 1,249 563 60-64 2,502 9.27 1,642 860 65-69 2,948 10.92 1,758 1,190 Subtotal 11,668 43.22 7,794 3,874 >= 70 years 15,331 56.784 Total 26,999 100 244,013 264,423 Number of Deaths Crimea as of 2018 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 19 | P a g e Study Population Crimea Deaths Population (OECD 1980) Crude Rate Expected deaths (Standard Pop.) PYLL Age Groups di pi STD Pi ri = di/pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di* (Remaining Years to Upper Age Limit) 0-4 182 117,804 80,269,483 0.00154 124,011 8,370,773 5-9 24 108,083 84,285,393 0.00022 18,716 1,169,731 10-14 25 84,242 85,828,597 0.00030 25,471 1,464,574 15-19 48 81,483 87,597,591 0.00059 51,602 2,709,104 20-24 130 106,545 82,619,776 0.00122 100,808 4,788,372 25-29 283 152,380 77,252,661 0.00186 143,474 6,097,627 30-34 454 152,465 73,604,119 0.00298 219,173 8,219,002 35-39 647 136,698 61,676,142 0.00473 291,917 9,487,301 40-44 824 125,490 57,394,499 0.00657 376,867 10,363,848 45-49 981 117,916 54,245,506 0.00832 451,294 10,154,126 50-54 1,465 138,461 52,537,987 0.01058 555,883 9,727,957 55-59 2,090 146,255 48,323,994 0.01429 690,555 8,631,940 60-64 2,807 133,454 36,727,063 0.02103 772,497 5,793,730 65-69 2,629 98,440 36,887,734 0.02671 985,147 2,462,867 Sum 12,589 1,699,716 919,250,545 0.00721 4,807,416 89,440,953.28 Standardized rate (per 100 000) 522.97 9,729.77 Crimea Standardized death rates 2015 Direct standardization Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 20 | P a g e Study Population Crimea Deaths Population (OECD 1980) Crude Rate Expected deaths (Standard Pop.) PYLL Age Groups di pi STD Pi ri = di/pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di* (Remaining Years to Upper Age Limit) 0-4 105 113,197 80,269,483 0.00093 74,457 5,025,840 5-9 24 118,013 84,285,393 0.00020 17,141 1,071,306 10-14 18 98,431 85,828,597 0.00018 15,695 902,486 15-19 49 78,903 87,597,591 0.00062 54,399 2,855,973 20-24 88 89,382 82,619,776 0.00098 81,342 3,863,761 25-29 193 127,652 77,252,661 0.00151 116,800 4,964,003 30-34 426 162,655 73,604,119 0.00262 192,772 7,228,956 35-39 608 145,774 61,676,142 0.00417 257,241 8,360,342 40-44 817 132,382 57,394,499 0.00617 354,212 9,740,833 45-49 966 121,248 54,245,506 0.00797 432,182 9,724,087 50-54 1,112 120,690 52,537,987 0.00921 484,069 8,471,201 55-59 1,812 143,834 48,323,994 0.01260 608,779 7,609,734 60-64 2,502 137,752 36,727,063 0.01816 667,076 5,003,073 65-69 2,948 119,098 36,887,734 0.02475 913,072 2,282,680 Sum 11,668 1,709,011 919,250,545 0.00643 4,269,238 77,104,274.01 Standardized rate (per 100 000) 464.43 8,387.73 Crimea Standardized death rates 2018 Direct standardization Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 21 | P a g e Age group Total Total (%) Males Females 0-4 23,079 5.60 11,926 11,153 5-9 20,924 5.07 10,630 10,294 10-14 16,881 4.09 8,638 8,243 15-19 17,514 4.25 9,729 7,785 20-24 24,960 6.05 14,442 10,518 25-29 34,683 8.41 17,600 17,083 30-34 35,612 8.64 17,951 17,661 35-39 31,119 7.55 15,453 15,666 40-44 28,121 6.82 14,043 14,078 45-49 24,114 5.85 11,548 12,566 50-54 26,996 6.55 12,170 14,826 55-59 29,216 7.08 12,258 16,958 60-64 28,561 5.49 11,436 17,125 65-69 22,647 5.49 8,456 14,191 Subtotal 364,427 86.93 176,280 188,147 >= 70 years 47,987 11.636 Total 412,414 99 Sevastopol Population as of 2015 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 22 | P a g e Age group Total Total (%) Males Females 0-4 25,907 0.06 13,385 12,522 5-9 24,440 0.06 12,622 11,818 10-14 21,176 0.05 10,747 10,429 15-19 18,187 0.04 9,617 8,570 20-24 23,031 0.05 13,814 9,217 25-29 31,677 0.07 16,935 14,742 30-34 41,106 0.09 20,599 20,507 35-39 36,998 0.08 18,544 18,454 40-44 32,102 0.07 15,810 16,292 45-49 27,831 0.06 13,667 14,164 50-54 25,327 0.06 11,859 13,468 55-59 29,555 0.07 12,747 16,808 60-64 29,432 0.07 11,955 17,477 65-69 26,716 0.06 10,125 16,591 Subtotal 393,485 0.89 192,426 201,059 >= 70 years 50,858 11.446 Total 444,343 100 Sevastopol Population as of 2018 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 23 | P a g e Age group Total Total (%) Age groups (%) (0-69 years) Males Females 0-4 33 0.54 1.21 23 10 5-9 2 0.03 0.07 2 0 10-14 3 0.05 0.11 1 2 15-19 12 0.20 0.44 9 3 20-24 31 0.51 1.14 24 7 25-29 61 1.00 2.24 48 13 30-34 135 2.22 4.96 109 26 35-39 159 2.61 5.85 124 35 40-44 215 3.53 7.90 164 51 45-49 206 3.38 7.57 156 50 50-54 275 4.52 10.11 202 73 55-59 462 7.59 16.99 325 137 60-64 553 9.08 20.33 356 197 65-69 573 9.41 21.07 315 258 Subtotal 2,720 44.67 100 1,858 862 >= 70 years 3,369 55.329 Total 6,089 100 258,475 270,288 Number of deaths Sevastopol as of 2015 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 24 | P a g e Age group Total Total (%) Age groups (%) (0-69 years) Males Females 0-4 19 0.34 0.82 13 6 5-9 2 0.04 0.09 1 1 10-14 2 0.04 0.09 1 1 15-19 3 0.05 0.13 2 1 20-24 18 0.32 0.78 13 5 25-29 45 0.80 1.94 35 10 30-34 103 1.82 4.45 81 22 35-39 145 2.57 6.26 112 33 40-44 167 2.96 7.21 130 37 45-49 193 3.42 8.33 140 53 50-54 234 4.15 10.10 161 73 55-59 349 6.18 15.06 241 108 60-64 448 7.94 19.34 293 155 65-69 589 10.43 25.42 346 243 Subtotal 2,317 41.05 100 1,569 748 >= 70 years 3,328 58.955 Total 5,645 100 244,013 264,423 Number of deaths of Sevastopol as of 2018 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 25 | P a g e Study Population Sevastopol Deaths Population (OECD 1980) Crude Rate Expected deaths (OECD Pop.) Expected deaths (Standard Pop.) PYLL Age Groups di pi STD Pi ri = di/pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di* (Remaining Years to Upper Age Limit) 0-4 33 23,079 80,269,483 0.00143 114,775.0 114,775 7,747,315 5-9 2 20,924 84,285,393 0.00010 8,056.3 8,056 503,521 10-14 3 16,881 85,828,597 0.00018 15,253.0 15,253 877,047 15-19 12 17,514 87,597,591 0.00069 60,018.9 60,019 3,150,992 20-24 31 24,960 82,619,776 0.00124 102,612.7 102,613 4,874,103 25-29 61 34,683 77,252,661 0.00176 135,871.0 135,871 5,774,516 30-34 135 35,612 73,604,119 0.00379 279,022.7 279,023 10,463,351 35-39 159 31,119 61,676,142 0.00511 315,129.2 315,129 10,241,700 40-44 215 28,121 57,394,499 0.00765 438,811.5 438,811 12,067,315 45-49 206 24,114 54,245,506 0.00854 463,406.1 463,406 10,426,637 50-54 275 26,996 52,537,987 0.01019 535,188.4 535,188 9,365,797 55-59 462 29,216 48,323,994 0.01581 764,159.5 764,160 9,551,994 60-64 553 28,561 36,727,063 0.01936 711,111.9 711,112 5,333,339 65-69 573 22,647 36,887,734 0.02530 933,310.0 933,310 2,333,275 Sum 2,720 364,427 919,250,545 0.00722 4,876,726 4,876,726 92,710,902.83 Standardized rate (per 100 000) 530.51 10,085.49 Sevastopol Standardized death rates 2015 Direct standardization Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 26 | P a g e Study Population Sevastopol Deaths Population (OECD 1980) Crude Rate Expected deaths (OECD Pop.) Expected deaths (Standard Pop.) PYLL Age Groups di pi STD Pi ri = di/pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di = ri * STD Pi Di* (Remaining Years to Upper Age Limit) 0-4 19 25,907 80,269,483 0.00073 58,869.0 58,869 3,973,660 5-9 2 24,440 84,285,393 0.00008 6,897.3 6,897 431,083 10-14 2 21,176 85,828,597 0.00009 8,106.2 8,106 466,107 15-19 3 18,187 87,597,591 0.00016 14,449.5 14,449 758,598 20-24 18 23,031 82,619,776 0.00078 64,571.9 64,572 3,067,166 25-29 45 31,677 77,252,661 0.00142 109,744.3 109,744 4,664,132 30-34 103 41,106 73,604,119 0.00251 184,431.1 184,431 6,916,166 35-39 145 36,998 61,676,142 0.00392 241,716.9 241,717 7,855,798 40-44 167 32,102 57,394,499 0.00520 298,575.8 298,576 8,210,835 45-49 193 27,831 54,245,506 0.00693 376,177.0 376,177 8,463,983 50-54 234 25,327 52,537,987 0.00924 485,406.4 485,406 8,494,613 55-59 349 29,555 48,323,994 0.01181 570,633.5 570,634 7,132,919 60-64 448 29,432 36,727,063 0.01522 559,042.0 559,042 4,192,815 65-69 589 26,716 36,887,734 0.02205 813,253.3 813,253 2,033,133 Sum 2,317 393,485 919,250,545 0.00573 3,791,874 3,791,874 66,661,009.41 Standardized rate (per 100 000) 412.50 7,251.67 Sevastopol Standardized death rates 2018 Direct standardization Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 27 | P a g e Annex 3): Demographic data of the 8 Federal Districts Federal Districts Population 2013 2018 North Caucasus 9,565,422 9,844,851 South* 13,937,027 14,095,516 Privolzhkiy (Volga) 29,755,536 29,469,957 Far East 8,304,660 8,205,643 Uralskiy 12,215,884 12,353,188 Siberian 17,219,879 17,201,749 Central 38,749,394 39,344,729 North-West 13,759,196 13,962,038 Sum 143,506,998 144,477,671 Russian Federation 143,506,998 144,477,879 Difference (Districts - RF) 0 -178 * Without Crimea and Sevastopol Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 28 | P a g e Annex 4a): Projected reduction of Premature Years of Life Lost (PYLL) for 8 Federal Districts, targeted as of 2015 (estimated) -2030 Federal District PYLL/ 100,000 2013 PYLL/ 100,000 2018 PYLL/ 100,000 2015 (estimated as average 2013/2018) PYLL/ 100,000 Target 2030 Based on 2015 Years needed Years in advance Gr to be >= -0.25 North Caucasus 7,153 4,970 6,062 4,041 5.1 6.9 0.58 Privolzhkiy (Volga) 10,010 7,295 8,653 5,768 6.1 5.9 0.49 Far Est 12,529 9,203 10,866 7,243 6.3 5.7 0.47 Uralskiy 11,910 9,032 10,471 6,980 7.1 4.9 0.41 Siberian 11,829 9,133 10,481 6,987 7.5 4.5 0.37 South 8,351 6,032 7,359 4,906 7.8 4.2 0.35 Central 9,322 7,272 8,297 5,531 7.8 4.2 0.35 North-West 9,726 7,824 8,775 5,849 8.7 3.3 0.28 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 29 | P a g e Annex 4b): Projected reduction of Premature Years of Life Lost (PYLL) for 8 Federal Districts, targeted as of 2018-2030 Federal District PYLL/ 100,000 2013 PYLL/ 100,000 2018 PYLL/ 100,000 Target 2030 Based on 2018 Years needed Years in advance Gr to be >= -0.25 South 8,351 6,032 4,245 7.1 4.9 0.41 North Caucasus 7,153 4,970 3,313 7.3 4.7 0.39 Privolzhkiy (Volga) 10,010 7,295 4,863 8.0 4.0 0.33 Far Est 12,529 9,203 6,135 8.2 3.8 0.32 Uralskiy 11,910 9,032 6,021 8.7 3.3 0.28 Siberian 11,829 9,133 6,089 9.0 3.0 0.25 Central 9,322 7,272 4,848 9.2 4.8 0.23 North-West 9,726 7,824 5,216 9.8 2.2 0.18 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 30 | P a g e Annex 4c): Calculation of target achievement of the Russian Federation using different baseline years 2003 2009 2013 2018 2030 based on 2013 2030 based on 2018 Different baselines PYLL/ 100,000 PYLL/ 100,000 Based on 2013 Years in adv. Gr Based on 2018 Years in adv. Gr 2003 15950 8060 6875 8.5 0.71 5373 5.1 0.43 2009 11935 8060 6875 7.1 0.58 5373 3.4 0.28 2013 10313 8060 6875 6.1 0.51 5373 2.8 0.23 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 31 | P a g e Annex 4d): Achievability of the presidential targets for 2024 and 2030 Target LE 2024 Target LE 2030 LE 2013 LE 2017 Target 2024 Target 2030 76 80 70.6 72.4 -0.9 -1.3 Chernyavskiy V, Wenzel H, Mikhailova J, Ivanova A, Zemlianova E, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, et al. Can Russia’s high mortality return until 2030 to trajectory of the 1980-ies and reach the SDGs evenly across the country? [Original research]. SEEJPH 2020, posted: 21 September 2020. DOI: 10.4119/seejph-3813 32 | P a g e Annex 5): Selected oblasts respectively districts, republics and autonomous regions with the highest and the lowest mortality rate per 100.000 population * Autonomous District 2013 2018 2030 Oblasts, republics or districts with the highest /lowest mortality in the Russian Federation Death rate per 100,000 population Part of larger administra tive district or region Deaths per 100,000 populati on PYLL per 100,000 populat ion Deaths per 100,000 populati on PYLL per 100,000 population Target value PYLL/ 100,000 Target achieved, years in advance HIGHEST Tyumen Oblast 2,066 Uralskiy Federal District 1,155 25,054 976 18,479 16,703 8.4 Pskov Oblast 1,859 North- Western District 661 12,650 567 10,024 8,433 5.6 Tver Oblast 1,801 Central Federal District 637 12,765 549 9,932 8,510 6.3 Novgorod Oblast 1,783 North- Western District 662 13,322 562 10,369 8,881 6.3 LOWEST Republic Dagestan 550 North Caucasus 252 7,033 211 5,014 4,689 9.6 Yamalo-Nenets District * 513 Uralskiy Federal District 354 9,831 301 7,023 6,554 9.6 Republic Chechenskaya 493 North Caucasus 369 7,050 306 4,603 4,700 12.7 Republic Ingushetia 350 North Caucasus 243 5,325 189 3,756 3,550 10