(2 rânduri libere, 11p) Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, No 21, 2015 http://sceco.ub.ro 151 LANDMARKS ON THE EVOLUTION OF E-COMMERCE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION Laura Cătălina Ţimiraş “Vasile Alecsandri” University of Bacau timiras.laura@ub.ro Bogdan Nichifor “Vasile Alecsandri” University of Bacau bnichifor@gmail.com Abstract In this paper are presented and analyzed a number of statistical indicators to highlight the size and the trends in the European e-commerce market in recent years, namely - the turnover of e- commerce, the share of turnover from e-commerce in total turnover of the organizations, the share of enterprises conducting online sales in total enterprises, the population share which shop online in total population. Information is presented both aggregated and individualized, allowing highlighting disparities between European states. The paper also captures a number of correlations between the orientation to online purchasing and level of development of European countries, on the one hand and access to technology on the other. The survey is based on official statistics provided by Eurostat (data from European Union countries) and information provided by EMOTA - European Multi-channel and Online Trade Association - (data pooled across all European countries). Keywords e-commerce market; turnover from e-commerce; orders over internet; EU market JEL Classification M31 The evolution of e-commerce market was marked by remarkable growth in recent years in the European market. This is not surprising in the context of increasing access of the population to technology (an increasing proportion of the population had access to the computer and used it), on the one hand, and as a result of changes made to purchase behavior and consumption, on the other hand. Thus, e-commerce is keeping up with the convenience buying process, allowing procurement in a very short time and from a large area (national or international), giving the possibility for comparing a large number of offers in terms of product characteristics and price, offering the ability to purchase products at lower prices than those of traditional distribution networks etc. Europe's place in the e-commerce world market Thus, in Europe in 2013 according to data from EMOTA (European Multi-channel and Online Trade Association) turnover from e-commerce reached 352 Billion Euros, representing an increase of approximately 17% over the previous year and almost 2 times bigger than the turnover of 2009. (Figure 1). LANDMARKS ON THE EVOLUTION OF E-COMMERCE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 152 35 2 30 1 24 9 21 5 18 5 190,3 162,7 134,6 116,2 100,0 0 100 200 300 400 2009 2010 2011 2013 2013 E ur os B ill io n 0 50 100 150 200 % c om pa re d to 2 00 9 Figure 1 Evolution of E-commerce turnover in Europa, in 2009 – 2013 period (Billion Euros) Source: Taken and worked up from E-commerce and Distance Selling in Europe Report, EMOTA (European Multi-channel and Online Trade Association) Europe is, in fact, the largest e-commerce market relative to other major regions of the world (Asia Pacific and North America). Thus, in 2013, according to the same data sources indicated above, in Europe held in global online trade a share of 33%, followed by Asia Pacific with 32% and North America with 30%. (Figure 2). North America: 30% Rest of the World: 5% Europe: 33% Asia Pacific: 32% Figure 2 Share of turnover of e-commerce in the regions of the World in the total turnover of e-commerce worldwide in 2013 Source: Taken and worked up from E-commerce and Distance Selling in Europe Report, EMOTA (European Multi-channel and Online Trade Association) Population access to technology in the European Union As we said before, a contributing factor in the development of electronic commerce is increased people's access to technology in recent years. In the European Union (EU- 28 countries), according to data for 2014, 79% of the total population of 16-74 years have used the computer in the last 12 months, which represents an increase of over 11% compared to 2009, respectively over 21% compared to 2007. Regarding the data for individual countries, there were major differences, the most spectacular growth was recorded in general in the former communist countries and in some of the less developed countries in the older EU members (Greece, Portugal). Timiras, Nichifor 153 62 .2 57 .9 51 .2 50 .0 44 .9 43 .8 40 .8 39 .7 37 .7 35 .6 30 .0 28 .8 26 .9 26 .2 25 .0 22 .7 22 .1 21 .7 21 .5 20 .8 19 .4 17 .3 13 .6 12 .0 11 .5 11 .3 10 .7 6. 8 5. 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 B ul ga ri a R om an ia G re ec e M al ta C yp ru s Po rt ug al C ro at ia C ze ch R ep ub lic L ith ua ni a It al y H un ga ry Sp ai n E st on ia L at vi a Po la nd Ir el an d Sl ov ak ia Fr an ce E U -2 8 B el gi um Sl ov en ia L ux em bo ur g U ni te d K in gd om Fi nl an d D en m ar k G er m an y A us tr ia N et he rl an ds Sw ed en G ro w th in % in 2 01 4 co m pa re d to 2 00 Figure 3 Evolution of the proportion of people who used the computer in total population, for the EU countries in 2014 compared to 2007 Note: are considered persons who have used the Internet in the last 12 months of the reporting period. The data refer to the population of 16-74 years Source: own processing from Eurostat Despite the spectacular increase of people's access to technology in recent years in new EU member states, these states have continued to record values below the EU average in terms of computer usage by the population (Figure 4). This constitutes a limiting factor in the development of electronic commerce, which, however, while maintaining the growth rate of the population access to technology in these countries in recent years, will be lowered in time. 60 60 61 65 69 69 70 71 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 81 81 83 83 84 85 87 89 92 93 94 94 95 97 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 R om an ia B ul ga ri a It al y G re ec e Po rt ug al C ro at ia Po la nd C yp ru s L ith ua ni a Sl ov en ia M al ta Sp ai n L at vi a H un ga ry E U - 2 8 Ir el an d C ze ch R ep ub lic Sl ov ak ia A us tr ia Fr an ce E st on ia B el gi um G er m an y U K Fi nl an d Sw ed en N et he rl an ds L ux em bo ur g D en m ar k % o f t he to ta l p op ul at io n of 1 6- 74 y ea r Figure 4 The share of people who used the computer in total population, in the countries of the European Union in 2014 Note: are considered people who used the computer in the last 12 months of the reporting period. The data refer to the population of 16-74 years Source: own processing from Eurostat LANDMARKS ON THE EVOLUTION OF E-COMMERCE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 154 The orientation of the EU population to online purchases In connection with the evolution of the population access to technology, the share of people who shop online in total population of 16-74 years also recorded an upward trend, from 30% in 2007 to 50% in 2014. (Table 1) Table 1 Evolution of the share of people who used the computer and the share of people who made online purchases in the total population and the share of those who made online purchases in all those who used the computer 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Percentage of individuals who used the Internet 65 68 71 73 75 76 78 79 Percentage of individuals who ordered over the Internet 30 32 36 40 42 44 47 50 The share of those who made online purchases in all those who used the computer 46.2 47.1 50.7 54.8 56.0 57.9 60.3 63.3 Year Indicator Source: own processing from 2015 Eurostat data Note: are considered people who have used computer / made online purchases for private use in the last 12 months of the reporting period. The data refer to the population of 16-74 years Considering the data for the 2007 - 2014 period, we found that the correlation between the percentage of those who used the computer and the share of those who made online purchases in the last 12 months in the EU-28 is a deterministic one, correlation ratio being closer to the value 1. Y i = 1,4315x i - 64,5506 R2 = 0,9801 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Percentage of individuals who used the computer (x i ) Pe rc en ta ge o f i nd iv id ua ls w ho o rd er ed o nl in e (y i ) Figure 5 The relationship between the percentage of those who used the computer and the share of those who bought online in the EU - 28 in the 2007- 2014 period Source: own processing from 2015 Eurostat data Note: are considered people who have used computer / made online purchases for private use in the last 12 months of the reporting period. The data refer to the population of 16-74 years Timiras, Nichifor 155 Table 2 The relationship between the share of those who used the computer (x i) and the share of those who shop online (y i) in the EU - 28 in the 2007-2014 period Regression equation Source of variation Sum of the squares Coefficient of determination Correlation coefficient F-Value Significance level Critical value for the F statistic Y i = 1,4315 x i - 64,5506 Total 348,9 98,01% 0,99 295,86 0,05 5,99 Model 342,0 Error 6,9 Source: own processing from 2015 Eurostat data Note: are considered people who have used computer / made online purchases for private use in the last 12 months of the reporting period. The data refer to the population of 16-74 years Comparing the dynamics registered in the share of those who used the computer to the dynamics of the share of those who made online purchases we observe a much faster trend regarding the later indicator (21.5% versus 66.7% in the 2007 - 2014 period). This demonstrates that increasing the share of those who made online purchases was generated both by increased access to computer and by change over time of buying habits (people who although had the technology but not using to buy online, have acquired this behavior). This fact is emphasized by the increased share of those who made online purchases in all those who use computers (Table 1). In EU countries it was found that online purchases are specific mainly to old EU countries, while in the new states, the share of those who make online purchases in all those who use the computer lies also below average. 16 .7 28 .3 35 .6 36 .1 37 .7 38 .0 40 .0 40 .6 41 .0 44 .2 48 .6 48 .7 50 .0 53 .1 57 .6 57 .8 61 .7 62 .1 62 .7 63 .3 63 .9 73 .1 73 .8 75 .5 77 .9 78 .7 79 .8 80 .4 8 5.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Ro ma nia Bu lga ria Li thu an ia Ita ly Po rtu ga l Cy pr us Gr ee ce Cr oa tia Hu ng ary La tvi a Po lan d Sp ain Sl ov en ia Cz ec h R ep ub lic Es ton ia Sl ov ak ia Ire lan d Be lgi um M alt a EU -2 8 Au str ia Fi nla nd Fr an ce Ne the rla nd s Lu xe mb ou rg Ge rm an y Sw ed en De nm ark Un ite d K ing do m % in tot al po pu lat ion w ho ha ve us ed co mp ute Figure 6 The share of those who made online purchases in total of those who used the computer, the EU countries in 2014 Source: own processing from 2015 Eurostat data Note: are considered people who have used computer / made online purchases for private use in the last 12 months of the reporting period. The data refer to the population of 16-74 years The EU countries which recorded the lowest values of the share of people shopping online in the total population of 16-74 years and the biggest increases in this indicator in recent years are generally old communist states and some of the less developed old states. Age groups who experience the greatest propensity to online purchase are 25- 34 years, followed by 16-24 years group and that of 35-44 years. (Table 3) LANDMARKS ON THE EVOLUTION OF E-COMMERCE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 156 Table 3 Share of population who made online purchases in the total population by age, and dynamics in 2014 compared to 2009 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 Belgium 54 62 71 69 55 36 22 257.1 Bulgaria 17 33 30 22 12 4 0 566.7 Czech Republic 43 62 63 53 40 22 11 252.9 Denmark 78 89 89 85 81 67 53 139.3 Germany 70 77 92 87 74 56 33 134.6 Estonia 49 67 77 58 44 25 11 544.4 Ireland 50 61 66 62 48 28 15 151.5 Greece 26 39 39 33 24 12 4 325.0 Spain 37 45 54 49 37 20 7 205.6 France 62 71 83 74 61 47 32 182.4 Croatia 28 46 47 36 23 10 2 400.0 Italy 22 29 34 30 22 13 5 220.0 Cyprus 27 36 44 34 20 7 4 270.0 Latvia 34 52 60 43 28 14 5 309.1 Lithuania 26 39 49 34 19 9 2 433.3 Luxembourg 74 71 85 80 73 68 55 157.4 Hungary 32 47 47 44 29 17 6 290.9 Malta 47 80 69 55 40 22 14 235.0 Netherlands 71 83 87 79 72 61 38 129.1 Austria 53 77 73 67 48 32 17 147.2 Poland 34 52 60 48 26 13 6 212.5 Portugal 26 41 49 38 21 7 4 288.9 Romania 10 17 18 12 7 3 1 333.3 Slovenia 37 65 60 50 25 14 7 231.3 Slovakia 48 65 68 59 45 25 10 300.0 Finland 68 81 89 87 73 50 29 141.7 Sweden 75 80 85 84 79 68 50 141.5 United Kingdom 79 83 90 88 81 70 53 149.1 European Union (28 countries) 50 61 68 60 50 35 23 166.7 Share of population who made online purchases in the total population, in 2014 The dynamics of population share of 16-74 years who made online purchases in the total population, in 2014 compared to 2007 (%) Countries Out of which, by ageTotal population (16-74 ani) Source: own processing from 2015 Eurostat data Note: are considered people who have used computer / made online purchases for private use in the last 12 months of the reporting period There is in fact a strong link between the degree of development and therefore the purchasing power of the population and the extent of Internet use to purchase goods and services in the EU countries. Thus, taking into study the levels of GDP / capita at purchasing power parity (Gross domestic product at market prices in current prices, PPS per capita) and the share of individuals who in the last 12 months of the reporting period have shopped online, in 2013 for which we have data for both indicators, it appears that at the level of the 28 EU members, higher levels of purchasing power are associated with greater tendency of people towards online purchases. (Figure 7) Timiras, Nichifor 157 Y i = 0,0014x i + 6,9409 R2 = 0,5027 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 00 0 20 00 0 30 00 0 40 00 0 50 00 0 60 00 0 70 00 0 Gross Domestic Product at market prices - PPS per capita (x i ) Sh ar e of p op ul at io n w ho m ad e on lin e pu rc ha se s in th e to ta l po pu la tio n (y i) Figure 7 The link between Gross domestic product / capita and the share of the population who made online purchases in the total population in EU countries in 2013 Source: own processing from 2015 Eurostat data Note: are considered people who have used computer / made online purchases for private use in the last 12 months of the reporting period. From regression and correlation analysis there is a significant link between Gross domestic product / capita and percentage of individuals who ordered over the Internet in all EU countries, the correlation coefficient having the value of 0.709. (Table 4). Table 4 The link between Gross domestic product / capita and the share of the population who made online purchases in total population in the EU-28, in 2013 Regression equation Source of variation Sum of the squares Coefficient of determination Correlation coefficient F- Value Signifi- cance level Critical value for the F statistic Y i =0,0014 x i + 6,9409 Total 11533,3 50,27% 0,709 26,28 0,05 4,22 Model 5797,3 Error 5736,0 Source: own processing from 2015 Eurostat data Note: are considered people who have used computer / made online purchases for private use in the last 12 months of the reporting period. We studied the value of Gross domestic product at market prices in current prices, PPS per capita In fact, if we remove from the analysis Luxembourg, which in terms of the analyzed indicators is found to deviate from the general trend recorded in the other EU countries (see Figure 7), the link between the two analyzed indicators is one more stronger (correlation coefficient is 0.829). Table 5 The link between gross domestic product in current prices, PPS per capita and percentage of individuals who have bought online in all EU countries (excluding Luxembourg), 2013 Regression equation Source of variation Sum of the squares Coefficient of determination Correlation coefficient F- Value Signifi- cance level Critical value for the F statistic Y i = 0,0024 x i +18,0033 Total 10734,7 68,69% 0,829 54,86 0,05 4,24 Model 7374,1 Error 3360,6 Source: own processing from 2015 Eurostat data Note: are considered people who have used computer / made online purchases for private use in the last 12 months of the reporting period. We studied the value of Gross domestic product at market prices in current prices, PPS per capita LANDMARKS ON THE EVOLUTION OF E-COMMERCE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 158 Percentage of turnover from e-commerce on enterprises' total turnover The development of this form of trade is reflected in the evolution of the turnover from e-commerce of EU organizations. Thus, in 2010, 14% of the turnover of companies with over 10 employees (excluding the financial sector) was obtained from electronic trade, a share that reached 15% in 2014. There is big difference, however, between EU members in this regard. Thus, from table 6 is seen that this is not a generalized phenomenon (countries like Lithuania, Germany, Netherlands, and Denmark recording declines in terms of the analyzed indicator). A dramatic increase in this indicator was recorded by Cyprus where turnover from e-commerce on enterprises' total turnover was raised by 8 times. It is found that in almost all EU countries there is a certain relationship between firm size and the percentage of turnover from e-commerce on enterprises' total turnover. Thus, except for Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia and Lithuania, in all other EU countries for which data are available, the lowest share of turnover from e-commerce were recorded in the category of small enterprises and higher levels in the category of large enterprises. Table 6 Percentage of turnover from e-commerce on enterprises' total turnover, on some of the EU countries in 2014, and dynamics compared to 2010 All enterprises with 10 persons employed or more Small enterprises (10-49 persons employed) Medium enterprises (50- 249 persons employed) Large enterprises (250 persons employed or more) Bulgaria 3 1 2 6 150,0 Czech Republic 29 15 21 37 152,6 Denmark 16 11 18 19 94,1 Germany 13 7 11 15 72,2 Estonia 18 16 12 25 163,6 Ireland 52 28 45 63 216,7 Greece 2 n.d. 3 3 n.d. Spain 15 5 11 21 136,4 France 15 6 14 20 115,4 Croatia 13 10 12 14 144,4 Italy 7 2 8 11 140,0 Cyprus 8 13 6 3 800,0 Latvia 8 3 13 10 114,3 Lithuania 7 4 11 8 50,0 Hungary 20 4 9 32 125,0 Malta 9 2 5 22 n.d. Netherlands 12 5 8 17 85,7 Austria 13 4 9 22 100,0 Poland 12 n.d. n.d. 18 150,0 Romania 6 4 5 8 150,0 Slovakia 13 4 8 19 118,2 Finland 19 n.d. n.d. n.d. 105,6 Sweden 18 9 18 22 100,0 United Kingdom 20 6 10 26 125,0 European Union (28 countries) 15 6 11 20 107,1 Percentage of turnover from e-commerce on enterprises' total turnover (*without financial sector) Dinamics of percentage of turnover from e-commerce on enterprises' total turnover (All enterprises with 10 persons employed or more) in 2014 compared to 2010 (%) Countries Source: own processing from 2015 Eurostat data Percentage of enterprises selling online on total enterprises Closely related to the shown indicator (Percentage of turnover from e-commerce on enterprises' total turnover), the proportion of businesses selling online in all EU-28 enterprises has been growing in recent years. Thus, referring to firms with over 10 employees (excluding the financial sector), 15% of these sales were made online in 2014 (minimum 1% of turnover), compared to 13% in 2010. Percentage of enterprises selling online on total enterprises by size confirms that greater orientation towards Timiras, Nichifor 159 electronic commerce is at the level of large enterprises, followed by the medium ones. (Table 7) Table 7 Percentage of enterprises selling online (at least 1% of turnover) on total enterprises with 10 persons employed or more (without financial sector), in 2010- 2014 period 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Small enterprises (10-49 persons employed) 12 11 12 13 13 Medium enterprises (50-249 persons employed) 20 20 22 22 22 Large enterprises (250 persons employed or more) 31 32 35 35 35 All enterprises, (10 persons employed or more) 13 13 14 14 15 Years Categories of enterprises (without financial sector) Source: own processing from 2015 Eurostat data Categories of goods or services ordered over the Internet As regards goods purchased online there is a greater propensity to purchase clothes and sporting goods at EU-28, 59% of 16-74 years population making Internet purchases of such goods (at least one purchase in the last year of the reporting period). Also, household goods, tickets for events, books / magazines / e-learning are among the categories of products purchased by a larger proportion of the EU population. (Table 8) Table 8 Percentage of individuals who ordered goods or services, over the Internet, for private use in 2014, in the last year Food/ groceries Clothes, sports goods Electronic equipment Computer software Computer hardware Shares/ financial services/ insurance Films/ music Household goods Tickets for events Books/ magazines /e-learning material Belgium 9 47 17 18 11 6 21 26 39 27 Bulgaria 20 73 19 7 9 2 8 31 15 13 Czech Republic 6 52 27 6 4 4 5 12 35 16 Denmark 15 58 29 21 28 17 38 40 66 31 Germany 15 67 37 30 31 10 38 52 44 52 Estonia 13 53 20 11 13 21 12 30 50 20 Ireland 10 55 29 15 8 16 32 26 59 38 Greece 6 51 31 4 18 2 6 18 17 13 Spain 14 43 22 17 22 8 14 26 42 29 France 18 57 13 20 22 5 20 37 29 34 Croatia 5 48 22 9 24 4 7 24 18 23 Italy 6 35 21 15 9 6 13 26 21 31 Cyprus 11 61 24 10 23 2 4 11 13 14 Latvia 4 48 30 4 18 28 7 29 32 10 Lithuania 13 59 17 8 13 14 11 33 42 15 Luxembourg 15 50 28 33 20 8 37 32 52 62 Hungary 11 49 29 8 11 3 11 29 27 29 Malta 4 66 30 25 29 7 22 24 29 36 Netherlands 21 63 32 32 15 10 28 37 55 50 Austria 13 62 33 25 21 4 28 31 38 49 Poland 24 61 19 14 14 4 12 42 16 26 Portugal 16 42 18 30 7 11 21 21 23 32 Romania 6 58 21 9 11 3 15 16 18 29 Slovenia 24 53 22 11 28 5 10 37 34 27 Slovakia 10 61 18 8 6 3 10 40 16 30 Finland 5 65 27 27 23 27 31 29 56 36 Sweden 12 60 23 : 26 26 34 30 66 45 United Kingdom 32 67 34 32 19 29 43 57 48 46 European Union (28 countries) 18 59 27 24 21 13 28 41 40 39 Countries Categories of goods or services Source: own processing from 2015 Eurostat data LANDMARKS ON THE EVOLUTION OF E-COMMERCE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 160 Conclusions The European market for e-commerce has shown a strong dynamics, as reflected in both turnover in this category of commercial activity, as well as in the growing number of consumers that purchases online. Market expansion was generated as a result of increased access of the population to technology, and by acquiring the habit of online buying by a increasing number of EU consumers. Thus, according EMOTA, turnover of e-commerce at European level increased from 185 Billion Euros in 2009 to 352 Billion Euros in 2013. Also at EU level, the share of those who made online purchases increased by 38.9% during 2009-2014 and by 66.7% in the period 2007- 2014, and the share of turnover from electronic commerce of businesses with over 10 employees (excluding the financial sector) increased from 14 % in 2010 to 15% in 2014. The main categories of products purchased online are: clothes and sports goods, household goods, tickets for events, books / magazines / e-learning. References Kumar V., Aaker, D.A., Day G.S. (1999), Essentials of Marketing research, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York Chichester Weinheim Brisbane Singapore Toronto.; Zaiţ, L. (2013), Managementul marketingului în contextul globalizării piețelor, Editura Alma Mater, Bacău EMOTA (European Multi-channel and Online Trade Association), E-commerce and Distance Selling in Europe Report, available at http://www.emota.eu/ Eurostat, available at http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database In this paper are presented and analyzed a number of statistical indicators to highlight the size and the trends in the European e-commerce market in recent years, namely - the turnover of e-commerce, the share of turnover from e-commerce in total tur... The evolution of e-commerce market was marked by remarkable growth in recent years in the European market. This is not surprising in the context of increasing access of the population to technology (an increasing proportion of the population had acces...