tsm2018.indd Torun Interna onal Studies No. 1 (7) 2014 Viktoriia Shvedun*1 INTERSTATE REFORMS OF UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH NATO ABSTRACT The present paper highlights the procedures of implementing Ukraine’s interstate reforms in the context of its interaction with NATO. In particular, what was demonstrated was the appraisal of the methods of effectuating interstate reforms in the context of the above-stated interaction in 2016–2017. Furthermore, the paper presents the comparative analysis of the implementation of the said interstate programs related to Ukraine-NATO cooperation, as it unfolded in 2016, as compared to 2017. Finally, the present article purports to forecast a number of Ukraine’s possible interstate programs pertinent to its interaction with NATO as well as the potential development of efficient mechanisms for the implementation thereof. Keywords: NATO, Ukraine, interstate reforms, programs, interaction 1. INTRODUCTION For more than 20 years, the Charter on a Distinctive Partnership has remained the basic foundation document evidencing NATO-Ukraine relations. The Declaration to Comple- ment the Charter on a Distinctive Partnership, along with Ukraine’s Annual National Pro- gramme (ANP), launched after the 2008 Bucharest Summit, engendered Ukraine’s efforts to call into existence the political, economic, and defence-related reforms aimed at implement- ing Euro-Atlantic standards. The responsibility for implementation is primarily incumbent upon Ukraine and is co- ordinated by the office of the Vice Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integra- tion, who also chairs Ukraine’s Commission for Cooperation with NATO. The ANP process * National University of Civil Protection of Ukraine, Kharkiv, e-mail: applevikvs@gmail.com 2018, No. 1 (11), pp. 37–46 Published online November, 2018 DOI: h p://dx.doi.org/10.12775/TIS.2018.003 V S38 helping Ukraine achieve a far-reaching transformation of the defence and security sector is one of its top priorities. Joint working groups have been set up under the NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC), to increase the efforts in specific areas. They include the Joint Working Group on Defence Reform (JWGDR), the Joint Working Group on Defence Technical Cooperation (JWG- DTC), the Joint Working Group on Scientific and Environmental Cooperation (JWGSEC) and the Joint Working Group on Civil Emergency Planning (JWGCEP). Situation has radically changed since 2014, both at the political level and in terms of practical work. After Russia’s unjust military intervention in Ukraine, illegal and illegitimate “annexation” of Ukraine’s Autonomous Republic of Crimea, NATO has strengthened its advisory support in Kyiv. At the Wales Summit (4–5 September 2014), six Trust Funds were set up, making use of a mechanism which allows individual Allies and partner countries to provide financial support for concrete projects on a voluntary basis. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has signed the bill of 29 December 2014, which has done away with the non-bloc status of Ukraine; and he announced that Ukraine would attempt to meet the criteria needed for NATO membership and also join the Euro-Atlantic security space. He also declared that a referendum would be held if his country were to apply for NATO membership. At the Warsaw Summit (9 July 2016), the Heads of State and Government endorsed the Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP). The CAP is designed to support Ukraine’s ability to provide for its own security and to implement wide-ranging reforms, including the ones specified in Ukraine’s Strategic Defence Bulletin of 2016. It comprises eight Trust Funds set up exclusively for Ukraine and being dedicated to launch critical reforms and enhance its defensive capabilities. It should be noted that Ukraine has long been an active contributor to Euro-Atlantic security by deploying troops that cooperate with peacekeepers from NATO and other part- ner countries. In spite of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, Ukraine continues to contribute to NATO-led operations and missions. Ukraine has supported NATO-led peace-support operations in the Balkans – both Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. It continues to contribute to the Kosovo Force (KFOR), cur- rently with a heavy engineering unit with counter-improvised explosive devices capabilities. Following the completion of International Security Assistance Force’s (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan at the end of 2014, Ukraine is currently supporting the NATO-led mission to train, advise and assist Afghan security forces, known as the Resolute Support mission. Ukraine is also the first partner country to have participated in the NATO Response Force (NRF), contributing a platoon specialised in nuclear, biological and chemical threats in 2011 and strategic airlift capabilities in 2011. Currently, Ukraine is contributing strategic airlift capabilities. Ukraine’s active participation in the NATO Operational Capabilities Concept Evalua- tion and Feedback Programme supports the further development of the armed forces, while also simultaneously enabling the Alliance to consolidate tailored force packages that can be deployed in support of NATO-led operations and missions. Ukraine is also a regular partic- ipant in disaster preparedness and response exercises organised by the Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre (EADRCC). NATO–Ukraine cooperation in the area of civil preparedness focuses on improving national capacity for civil preparedness and resilience INTERSTATE REFORMS OF UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH NATO 39 in facing hybrid threats through the exchange of best practices and the provision of expert advice. The cooperation of Ukraine with NATO under present circumstances goes rather smoothly, but the format of this interaction will change in the long term. As far as Ukraine’s aspirations to meet NATO requirements are concerned, it must be stated that the interstate programs devoted to the interaction between Ukraine and NATO are actively carried out at the present stage. Similar programs are directed to the attraction and use of potential, practi- cal and advisory help of NATO and member states for the purpose of increasing the defensive capability of Ukraine. The specified programs are system strategic documents, defining priority tasks and the medium-term targets which are planned to be reached by 2020. Of course, the problems of interaction of Ukraine and NATO were investigated by national and foreign scientists, in particular, as follows: O. Baklanov, M. Bugriy, O. Rogozin, V. Begma, V. Chumak, I. Levy- ash, V. Martyniuk, D. Szeligowski, I. Todorov et al. But prospects of quantity analysis of interstate reforms in the context of interaction between Ukraine with NATO have not been thoroughly studied just yet. Accordingly, the purpose of the present work is the research of the current state and prospective tendencies of carrying of interstate reforms of Ukraine in the context of its inter- action with NATO. The achievement of the given purpose requires the solution to the following tasks: (1) The assessment of realization of interstate reforms in the context of the interaction between Ukraine with NATO during 2016-2017. (2) The comparative analysis of implementation of interstate programs aimed at Ukraine- -NATO cooperation in 2016 and 2017. (3) The specification of prospective tendencies of further preparation of Ukraine inter- state programs dedicated to its interaction with NATO. 2. MATERIAL AND METHODS / EXPERIMENTAL DETAILS / METHODOLOGY 2.1 THE ASSESSMENT OF REALIZATION OF INTERSTATE REFORMS IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERACTION OF UKRAINE WITH NATO DURING 2016 2017 Ukraine’s cooperation with NATO in the area of defence and security sector reform is crucial to the ongoing transformation of Ukraine’s security profile and remains an essential part of its democratic transition (Begma, 2013). NATO has supported Ukraine’s defence and related security sector reform through the Joint Working Group on Defence Reform, and the Planning and Review Process, the NATO Building Integrity Programme, the NATO Defence Education Enhancement Programme, the Joint Working Group on Defence Technical Cooperation and the advisory mission at the NATO Representation in Kyiv (Baklanov & Rogozin, 2013). Through the CAP for Ukraine endorsed by the NUC at the NATO Summit in Warsaw in 2016, NATO pledged to support Ukraine’s goal to implement security and defence sector V S40 reforms according to NATO standards by providing strategic-level advice as well as 40 tai- lored support measures. It is important for the Ukrainian administration and for the Alliance to inform its people about NATO-Ukraine relations and the benefits of cooperation in terms of the country’s reform programme. On 22 September 2015, the Strategic Communications Partnership Roadmap was signed by the Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defence Coun- cil, Oleksandr Turchynov, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. The objective is to provide the Ukrainian authorities with more structured and long-term advice, training sup- port and expertise in the area of strategic communications («The findings of civic monitoring NATO – Ukraine Cooperation Annual National Programme 2016», 2017). As part of the Annual National Programme (ANP), NATO and Ukraine have conducted legal dialogues, at the expert level, in 2015 and 2016, to ensure that their mutually agreed activities are supported by a proper legal framework. Topics of discussion have included the status of the NATO Representation in Kyiv; the ongoing implementation of the Status of Forces Agreement; the delivery of Science for Peace and Security Trust Fund projects in Ukraine; and other topics of mutual interest. As mentioned above, ANP and the State Programme of Public Information on Euro-At- lantic integration of Ukraine 2017–2020, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers in December 2016 are main documents which are coordinated from a single focal point and organization- ally and substantially interconnected. The process of developing the ANP 2017 was based on government’s consideration of the proposals previously voiced by the civil society organizations. The process of drafting a new document has been more inclusive and involved NGOs and independent experts. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved the ANP NATO-Ukraine cooperation for 2018 and also adopted a respective draft presidential decree for the further introduction of an act to be signed by the head of state. On 28 March 2018 the President of Ukraine Pet- ro Poroshenko signed a decree «On the approval of the Annual National Programme under the auspices of the Ukraine-NATO Commission for 2018» («The Cabinet of Ministers has approved the Ukraine-NATO program for 2018», 2018). The ANP contains 444 actions with participation of 58 ministries and departments, apart from local authorities and other institutes and organizations. The program is the main stra- tegic document of planning internal national reforms in the framework of NATO-Ukraine cooperation. It is aimed at preparing for membership in NATO. It should be noted that an- nual increase in number of actions of cooperation testifies, in particular, to a positive trend of enhancing cooperation and expansions of interaction spheres. Nowadays the similar program for 2019 is being prepared. It is necessary to note that the program for 2017 contained 375 actions. The statistics concerning their performance is presented in fig. 1 («The findings of civic monitoring NATO – Ukraine Cooperation Annual National Programme 2016», 2017). INTERSTATE REFORMS OF UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH NATO 41 Fig. 1. The distribution of performance of interstate reforms of Ukraine concerning interaction with NATO in 2017 Thus, there is an opportunity to analyze the given statistical data in tab. 1 («The findings of civic monitoring NATO – Ukraine Cooperation Annual National Programme 2016», 2017). Tab. 1. The quantitative distribution of the implementation of interstate programs de- voted to the accession of Ukraine to NATO in 2017 Status of performance of interstate reforms Quantity % Executed 307 81,8 Carried out 49 13 Not executed 19 5,2 In total 375 100 The existence of not executed actions is explained first of all by the cancellation or post- ponement of the term of their respective performance for 2018 at the initiative of organizers and also by the reorientation of prime requirements in connection with conducting anti-ter- rorist operation for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine («The Cabinet of Ministers has approved the Ukraine-NATO program for 2018», 2018). By contrast, the program of interstate reforms of the interaction between Ukraine and NATO for 2016 assumed 255 actions. The statistics concerning their performance is pre- sented in fig. 2 («The findings of civic monitoring NATO – Ukraine Cooperation Annual National Programme 2016», 2017). V S42 Fig. 2. The distribution of the performance of interstate reforms of Ukraine concerning the interaction with NATO in 2016 Thus, there is an opportunity to analyze the given statistical data in tab. 2 («The findings of civic monitoring NATO – Ukraine Cooperation Annual National Programme 2016», 2017). Tab. 2. The quantitative distribution of the implementation of interstate programs de- voted to the accession of Ukraine to NATO in 2016 Status of performance of interstate reforms Quantity % Executed 210 82,3 Carried out 34 13,3 Not executed 11 4,4 In total 255 100 As tab. 2 aptly demonstrates, the general quantity of interstate programs focused on the interaction of Ukraine with NATO in 2016 approximately 50% less than their quantity in 2017 - for 47.1%. (tab. 1). Unfortunately, any relevant data concerning the progress in the realization of NATO – Ukraine Cooperation Annual National Programme in particular re- gions has not been provided. The President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, signed a decree «On the approval of the Annual National Programme under the auspices of the Ukraine-NATO Commission for 2018». which is an important outcome of the implementation of interstate programs devoted to accession of Ukraine to NATO. That annual national program is supposed to ensure the solution to priority problems related to Ukraine’s cooperation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and also to make relevant decisions concerning this cooperation. In particular, the meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Commission at the level of state’s gov- ernment on July 9, 2016 in Warsaw provided an opportunity to establish a set of important arrangements with NATO. Thus, it is necessary to note the Annual National Programme under the auspices of the Ukraine-NATO Commission for 2018 is the system strategic doc- ument defining the priority tasks for 2018 and medium-term objectives which are planned to be realized till 2020. INTERSTATE REFORMS OF UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH NATO 43 2.2 THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANNUAL NATIONAL PROGRAMME IN 2016 AND 2017 DEVOTED TO ACCESSION OF UKRAINE TO NATO While comparing the degree to which Ukrainian interstate programs were implemented, the programs being dedicated to its interaction with NATO 2016 and 2017, the following should be noted: (1) The quantity of executed programs increased by 46.2% in 2017 in comparison with 2016. (2) The quantity of carried out programs increased by 44.1% in 2017 in comparison with 2016. (3) The quantity of not executed programs increased by 72.3% in 2017 in comparison with 2016. (4) The total quantity of interstate programs increased by 47.1% in 2017 in comparison with 2016 (tab. 3). It should be noted that the total quantity of interstate programs of Ukraine devoted to its interaction with NATO has increased by 47.1% in 2017 in comparison with 2016 according to the data in tab. 1 and tab. 2. However, the negative tendency is that the number of not executed interstate programs significantly raised in connection with conducting anti-terrorist operations in the eastern part of Ukraine. Tab. 3. The comparative characteristics of the implementation of interstate programs devoted to the interaction of Ukraine with NATO in 2016 and 2017 Status of performance of interstate reforms Quantity (2016) Quantity (2017) The absolute deviation The relative deviation, % Executed 210 307 97 46.2 Carried out 34 49 15 44.1 Not executed 11 19 8 72.3 In total 255 375 120 47.1 Nevertheless, the positive tendency is that the number of the executed interstate programs devoted to accession of Ukraine to NATO has doubled in 2017 in comparison with 2016. IEAC experts point out that the experience of implementing ANP 2016 confirms the presence of the following needs: – to plan the ANP from the largest to the smallest, moving from short-term to long- term plans. It is necessary to distinguish between the tasks based on the level of im- portance; – to improve communication with the staff involved in the planning and the imple- mentation of the ANP in various government agencies; establish regular capacity de- velopment courses, trainings and coordination and methodology meetings with the participation of professionals who are directly involved in drafting and implementing the program, assisted by the relevant joint NATO–Ukraine programs and individual NATO members. In particular, it is necessary to ensure professional development training of specialists in setting medium-term goals, objectives and actions with re- V S44 gard to departmental resource capabilities, as well as the mechanisms for monitoring and evaluating medium-term goals, objectives and activities; – to ensure high quality coordination of the ANP planning process and planning for appropriate advisory and technical assistance; – to ensure harmonization of the ANP content and relevant government and depart- mental programs that integrate the work on the ANPs with the relevant work on the annual plans of ministries and departments; – to use the ANP as a tool for inter-agency coordination between security, defense and law and order authorities («The findings of civic monitoring NATO – Ukraine Coop- eration Annual National Programme 2016», 2017). It is obvious that further development of the interaction between Ukraine and NATO without improving mechanism of policy coordination and harmonization of the ANP con- tent and relevant government programs adversely affect the capacity of governmental bodies to properly implement a joint NATO–Ukraine intellectual product. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION While constructing the forecast of prospective quantity of interstate programs of Ukraine which are devoted to its interaction with NATO by means of the correlation and regression analysis, it is advisable to adduce to the following prospective tendency (tab. 4). Tab. 4. The prospective quantity of interstate programs devoted to accession of Ukraine to NATO during 2019–2021 Year Prospective quantity 2019 547 2020 642 2021 736 At the first glance, the general tendency any alterations in the quantity of interstate pro- grams of Ukraine concerning interaction with NATO during 2016–2021 are represented in fig. 3. The above-indicated tendency is positive, but it is necessary to develop the effective mech- anism of the implementation of the interstate reforms in Ukraine, the reforms being devoted to its interaction with NATO with a view to reducing the quantity of not executed positions. This mechanism has to include the following directives: (1) Introduction of foreign experience into the process of conducting anti-terrorist oper- ations in Ukraine. (2) Ukraine adopting NATO requirements within next 5-10 years, in particular, reform- ing the security and defence sector of the country according to the standards and recommendations of Alliance. (3) Elimination of corruption manifestations etc. INTERSTATE REFORMS OF UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH NATO 45 Fig. 3. The dynamics of change of the quantity of interstate programs of Ukraine con- cerning its interaction with NATO during 2016-2021 However, the question of membership of Ukraine in NATO will be considered only ac- cording to the degree of implementing the reform in the sphere of defense. There has to be the system of internal control in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. The system is directed to the identification of risks of corruption and their elimination before corruption acts ma- terialize. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the fact that Ukraine and Georgia intend to combine their efforts for the entry into the EU and NATO. This situation is caused by the general threats for both states − occupation of the territories and of the Russian Fed- eration. It should be noted that Georgia strongly condemns Crimea’s annexation and Russia’s aggressive actions concerning Donbass. 4. CONCLUSIONS In general, the present research reaches the following conclusions: (1) The assessment of the realization of interstate reforms in the context of the interac- tion between Ukraine and NATO in 2017 showed that their total amount was 375. In particular, 307 of them (81.9%) were executed, but 19 (5.1%) thereof were not executed during the scrutnized period. The assessment of the realization of interstate reforms in the context of the interaction between Ukraine and NATO during in 2016 showed that their total amount was 255. In particular, 210 (82.0%) were executed, but 11 (4.7%) were not executed during the analyzed period. The existence of not ex- ecuted actions is explained first of all by the cancellation or postponement of the term of their performance for 2018 at the initiative of organizers and also by the reorien- tation of prime requirements in connection with conducting anti-terrorist operation for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. In general, interstate reforms in the context of interaction of Ukraine with NATO are focused on the attraction and use V S46 of potential and practical as well as advisory and consultative assistance of NATO and member states for the purpose of increasing defensive capabilities of Ukraine while facing the armed aggression of the Russian Federation and are also devoted to the introduction of purposeful and systematic actions for the preparation of the state for the membership in NATO. (2) The comparative analysis of the implementation of interstate programs devoted to the accession of Ukraine to NATO in 2016 and 2017 showed the following: the quantity of executed programs increased by 46.2% in 2017 in comparison with 2016; the quantity of carried out programs increased by 44.1% in 2017 in comparison with 2016; the quantity of not executed programs increased by 72.3% in 2017 in compar- ison with 2016; the total quantity of interstate programs increased by 47.1% in 2017 in comparison with 2016. (3) The forecasting of prospective quantity of interstate programs of Ukraine which are devoted to its interaction with NATO and developing the effective mechanism of implementing the according interstate reforms showed that the tendency is positive, but it is necessary to develop the effective mechanism for implemeting the interstate reforms of Ukraine devoted to its interaction with NATO with a view to reducing the quantity of not executed positions. This mechanism has to include the following targets: the introduction of foreign experience into the process of conducting anti-ter- rorist operations in Ukraine; Ukraine adapting to the requirements set by NATO within next 5-10 years; and eventually, the elimination of corruption manifestations etc. REFERENCES Baklanov, O. D. & Rogozin, O. K. (2013). Domestic military industrial complex and its histo- rical development. Moscow: Society of saving the literary heritage. Begma, V. M. (2013). Military and technical and defensive and industrial policy of Ukraine in modern conditions. Kyiv: NISD. Begma, V. M. (1998). Defense industry complexes of Ukraine and Russia: cooperation, partner- ship, competition. Kyiv: NIURV. Chumak, V. M. (1997). Ukraine and world market of arms. Kyiv: NISD. Levyash, I. A. (2012). Global world and geopolitics. Cultural and civilization measurement. Minsk: Belarusian science. 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