item: #1 of 66 id: cord-001071-bjx5td52 author: Vanhems, Philippe title: Estimating Potential Infection Transmission Routes in Hospital Wards Using Wearable Proximity Sensors date: 2013-09-11 words: 5047 flesch: 41 summary: The collected data can provide information on important aspects that impact the spreading patterns of infectious diseases, such as the strong heterogeneity of contact numbers and durations across individuals, the variability in the number of contacts during a day, and the fraction of repeated contacts across days. Contact patterns were qualitatively similar from one day to the next. keywords: contacts; data; duration; individuals; number; patterns; staff; time; transmission cache: cord-001071-bjx5td52.txt plain text: cord-001071-bjx5td52.txt item: #2 of 66 id: cord-004615-xfi3p601 author: Trapman, Pieter title: A branching model for the spread of infectious animal diseases in varying environments date: 2004-03-03 words: 8724 flesch: 61 summary: 6. Knowing the generating function of the number of infected herds at the first detection is important because if in some way it is possible to estimate parameters for the time before the first detection, we can use the distribution function of the number of infective herds at the time measures are implemented. This is why the expected number of infective herds at t = T is much less than the expected number of infected herds. keywords: animals; herd; infection; number; size; time cache: cord-004615-xfi3p601.txt plain text: cord-004615-xfi3p601.txt item: #3 of 66 id: cord-009797-8mdie73v author: Valle, Denis title: Extending the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model to presence/absence data: A case study on North American breeding birds and biogeographical shifts expected from climate change date: 2018-08-26 words: 5627 flesch: 41 summary: For instance, biome transition zones, ecotones, and habitat edges are locations that are often comprised of a mix of species groups, providing sources for potentially novel species interactions (Gosz, 1993; Ries, Fletcher, Battin, & Sisk, 2004) . We adopted a Beta 0:5; 0:5 ð Þdistribution for ϕ sk because this distribution is likely to generate species groups that are more dissimilar in terms of species composition given that it is a U-shaped symmetric distribution. keywords: change; climate; data; groups; lda; methods; model; number; results; species cache: cord-009797-8mdie73v.txt plain text: cord-009797-8mdie73v.txt item: #4 of 66 id: cord-012511-fl5llkoj author: Meltzer, Martin I. title: Standardizing Scenarios to Assess the Need to Respond to an Influenza Pandemic date: 2015-05-01 words: 4144 flesch: 51 summary: A descriptive brochure National influenza experience in the The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention For example, to construct the matrix element pertaining to the total number of contacts between the 0-9-year age group and the 0-9-year age group (ie, itself ), we perform the following sum:3 914 000 Ã 2:6 þ 3 517 000 Ã 7:6 ¼ 36 905 600: This is the first diagonal element of the total contacts matrix and, again, it represents the total number of contacts made per day between those in the 0-9-year age group. The clinical attack rates by age group are presented in Table 3 . keywords: age; data; group; influenza; matrix; number; pandemic cache: cord-012511-fl5llkoj.txt plain text: cord-012511-fl5llkoj.txt item: #5 of 66 id: cord-021013-xvc791wx author: Wink, Michael title: Chapter 1 Allelochemical Properties or the Raison D'être of Alkaloids date: 2008-05-30 words: 16169 flesch: 45 summary: In a number of plants alkaloids are translocated via the phloem (511). The ingestion of a number of allelochemicals such as emetine, lobeline, morphine, and many other alkaloids causes these symptoms (312). keywords: activities; activity; alkaloids; allelochemicals; animals; cells; chemical; compounds; data; defense; effects; food; fungi; herbivores; host; insects; lupines; mechanisms; metabolites; molecules; number; plants; present; products; properties; species; table cache: cord-021013-xvc791wx.txt plain text: cord-021013-xvc791wx.txt item: #6 of 66 id: cord-048364-yfn8sy1m author: Fraser, Christophe title: Estimating Individual and Household Reproduction Numbers in an Emerging Epidemic date: 2007-08-22 words: 9061 flesch: 40 summary: The structure of the paper focuses first on deriving estimators for individual reproduction numbers, then on household reproduction numbers and finally on examples of pandemic influenza dynamics and measles. One approach to estimating household reproduction numbers is simply to switch perspective from individual to household, directly estimate the generation time distribution (times taken for one household to infect another) and incidence of infection of households, and apply the results of equations (9) or (12) to estimate reproduction number as a function of time, R * (t), or exponential growth rate, R * (r). keywords: household; infection; number; reproduction; reproduction number; time; time t; transmission cache: cord-048364-yfn8sy1m.txt plain text: cord-048364-yfn8sy1m.txt item: #7 of 66 id: cord-048446-gaemgm0t author: White, Laura Forsberg title: Transmissibility of the Influenza Virus in the 1918 Pandemic date: 2008-01-30 words: 3736 flesch: 44 summary: Using a likelihood-based method and a nonparametric method, we estimate the serial interval and reproductive number throughout the course of each outbreak. Preliminary statistics of certain locations A likelihood based method for real time estimation of the serial interval and reproductive number of an epidemic A flexible growth function for empirical use Radioligand Assay Statistical analysis of radioimmunoassay data These results confirm the high pathogenicity of influenza and its ability to rapidly spread through populations. keywords: data; estimates; influenza; interval; method; number cache: cord-048446-gaemgm0t.txt plain text: cord-048446-gaemgm0t.txt item: #8 of 66 id: cord-102749-tgka0pl0 author: Tovo, Anna title: Taxonomic classification method for metagenomics based on core protein families with Core-Kaiju date: 2020-05-01 words: 7847 flesch: 39 summary: Tested against mock microbial communities, of different level of complexity, generated in other studies (27, 45) and available online, the proposed updated version of Kaiju, Core-Kaiju, outperformed popular 16S rRNA and shotgun methods for taxonomic classification in the estimation of both the total biodiversity and taxa relative abundance distribution. Having a trustable tool for the detection of microbial biodiversity, as measured by the number of genera and their abundances, could have a fundamental impact in our knowledge of human microbial communities and could therefore lay the foundations for the identification of the main ecological properties modulating the healthy or ill status of an individual, which, in turn, could be of great help in preventing and treating diseases on the basis of the observed patterns. keywords: 16s; classification; communities; community; core; genera; kaiju; methods; microbial; number; sequencing; shotgun; taxa; taxonomic cache: cord-102749-tgka0pl0.txt plain text: cord-102749-tgka0pl0.txt item: #9 of 66 id: cord-103180-5hkoeca7 author: Furstenau, Tara N. title: Sample pooling methods for efficient pathogen screening: Practical implications date: 2020-07-16 words: 3802 flesch: 51 summary: 43 Group testing theory primarily focuses on minimizing the number of tests required 44 to identify positive samples and many nearly-optimal strategies for sample pooling have 45 been described. 25 Due to practical concerns, Dorfman's group testing approach was never applied to 26 syphilis screening because the large number of negative samples had a tendency to 27 dilute the antigen in positive samples below the level of detection keywords: number; pooling; positive; samples; testing; tests cache: cord-103180-5hkoeca7.txt plain text: cord-103180-5hkoeca7.txt item: #10 of 66 id: cord-103342-stqj3ue5 author: Prakash, Meher K title: A minimal and adaptive prediction strategy for critical resource planning in a pandemic date: 2020-04-10 words: 3243 flesch: 52 summary: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057414 doi: medRxiv preprint Reported infections (NY) Predictions using infections Predictions using deaths A B Figure 5 : Adaptive predictions for New York state. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057414 doi: medRxiv preprint A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in US cities Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic Real-time forecasts of the covid-19 epidemic in china from Early dynamics of transmission and control of covid-19: a mathematical modelling study An interactive web-based dashboard to track covid-19 in real time Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus On fast multishot epidemic interventions for post lock-down mitigation: Implications for simple covid-19 models Age-structured impact of social distancing on the COVID-19 epidemic in India Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) Countries test tactics in war against COVID-19 The authors declare no competing interests. keywords: data; deaths; infections; number; pandemic; preprint cache: cord-103342-stqj3ue5.txt plain text: cord-103342-stqj3ue5.txt item: #11 of 66 id: cord-132307-bkkzg6h1 author: Blanco, Natalia title: Prospective Prediction of Future SARS-CoV-2 Infections Using Empirical Data on a National Level to Gauge Response Effectiveness date: 2020-07-06 words: 3762 flesch: 37 summary: The total number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in 28 countries was analyzed and fitted to several simple rate models including the logistic, Gompertz, quadratic, simple square, and simple exponential growth models. While logistic growth models have been widely used to model epidemics 16, 27 , uncertainties in estimates of R0 (and therefore the population carrying capacity NM) make prospective predictions of the course of the epidemic difficult 14, 27 . keywords: cases; covid-19; growth; model; number; quadratic; total cache: cord-132307-bkkzg6h1.txt plain text: cord-132307-bkkzg6h1.txt item: #12 of 66 id: cord-151183-o06mwd4d author: Tam, Ka-Ming title: Projected Development of COVID-19 in Louisiana date: 2020-04-06 words: 2218 flesch: 59 summary: The number of infected cases ceases to grow exponentially, but rather becomes a stable but constant increases until peaking at around day 50, corresponding to early May. This is particular significant in the early stages of the spread of the disease when the percentage of people tested is very small, and the spread by infected people who are asymptomatic is very significant. keywords: infection; number; rate; time cache: cord-151183-o06mwd4d.txt plain text: cord-151183-o06mwd4d.txt item: #13 of 66 id: cord-151198-4fjya9wn author: Rogers, L C G title: Ending the COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom date: 2020-04-26 words: 4668 flesch: 55 summary: This time, lockdown and social distancing costs remain at around 146bn, death costs are about 8.5bn, and the total number of deaths is 38,700. In more detail, we can suppose that there are K x stages for the symptomatic infection, and that I k j (t) is the number of symptomatic j-individuals at stage k of the infection at time t, j = 1, . . . keywords: age; care; epidemic; individual; number; social; time cache: cord-151198-4fjya9wn.txt plain text: cord-151198-4fjya9wn.txt item: #14 of 66 id: cord-158219-hk55bzqm author: Cintia, Paolo title: The relationship between human mobility and viral transmissibility during the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy date: 2020-06-04 words: 7882 flesch: 46 summary: During the first week of lockdown, the two curves describing mobility flows and net reproduction number gracefully overlap. We find a striking relationship between the negative variation of mobility flows and the net reproduction number, in all Italian regions, between March 11th and March 18th, when the country entered the lockdown. keywords: data; day; flow; lockdown; mobility; number; province; r t; regions; reproduction number; time cache: cord-158219-hk55bzqm.txt plain text: cord-158219-hk55bzqm.txt item: #15 of 66 id: cord-181220-gr29zq1o author: Ghosh, Subhas Kumar title: A Study on The Effectiveness of Lock-down Measures to Control The Spread of COVID-19 date: 2020-08-09 words: 4171 flesch: 57 summary: In this paper we consider techniques to measure the effectiveness of stringency measures adopted by governments across the world. Our objective in this work is to understand the benefits obtained from stringency measures adopted by governments across the world in terms of its health benefits. keywords: control; data; donor; lock; measures; number; stringency cache: cord-181220-gr29zq1o.txt plain text: cord-181220-gr29zq1o.txt item: #16 of 66 id: cord-216208-kn0njkqg author: Botha, Andr'e E. title: A simple iterative map forecast of the COVID-19 pandemic date: 2020-03-23 words: 2484 flesch: 56 summary: While there are a number of models available for the global spread of infectious diseases 3 , some even containing very sophisticated traffic layers 4 , relatively few researchers are making use of simpler models that can provide the big picture without difficult to interpret unambiguously. For the data in Table 2 , the output from the script should be: who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid Covert coronavirus infections could be seeding new outbreaks Insights from early mathematical models of 2019-ncov acute respiratory disease (COVID-19) dynamics GLEAMviz: keywords: cases; data; day; model; number cache: cord-216208-kn0njkqg.txt plain text: cord-216208-kn0njkqg.txt item: #17 of 66 id: cord-221131-44n5pojb author: Zullo, Federico title: Some numerical observations about the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy date: 2020-03-25 words: 2429 flesch: 55 summary: An upper bound for the timing of the peak of new number of infected is obtained. This gives an upper bound for the peak of new number of infected (the point where the second derivative of f (t) (3) is zero), given by 32 days after the first infection. keywords: infected; model; number cache: cord-221131-44n5pojb.txt plain text: cord-221131-44n5pojb.txt item: #18 of 66 id: cord-223212-5j5r6dd5 author: Hult, Henrik title: Estimates of the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in Sweden date: 2020-05-25 words: 3894 flesch: 49 summary: The resulting SEIR model with time varying contact rate is given by Clearly, one needs to put some restriction on the amount of variation of the contact rate. In this paper a Gaussian process prior will be used on the log contact rate, which restricts the amount of variation in time, but is sufficiently flexible to capture the reduction in contact rate after the interventions. keywords: contact; deaths; individuals; number; rate; time cache: cord-223212-5j5r6dd5.txt plain text: cord-223212-5j5r6dd5.txt item: #19 of 66 id: cord-238241-ncz1b8dl author: Caldwell, Allen title: Infections and Identified Cases of COVID-19 from Random Testing Data date: 2020-05-19 words: 5901 flesch: 60 summary: We perform this study as an exercise in data analysis, without attempting to interpret or modify reported numbers. Probability distribution for the IFR. keywords: analysis; data; deaths; distribution; ifr; number; results cache: cord-238241-ncz1b8dl.txt plain text: cord-238241-ncz1b8dl.txt item: #20 of 66 id: cord-248301-hddxaatp author: Howard, Daniel title: Genetic Programming visitation scheduling solution can deliver a less austere COVID-19 pandemic population lockdown date: 2020-06-17 words: 7995 flesch: 57 summary: + I v Predicting the structure of covert networks using genetic programming, cognitive work analysis and social network analysis Genetic programming of the stochastic interpolation framework: convection-diffusion equation Genetic Programming visitation scheduling in lockdown with partial infection model that leverages information from COVID-19 testing Genetic programming solution of the convection-diffusion equation Differential susceptibilty epidemic models Genetic Programming: For each solution, full details of the participants to all visitations, infection levels, numbers self-isolating, in ICU and sadly passed away can be inspected, as well as the variable length vector of real numbers that is the solution and visitation schedule and identity, age and level of infection of all participants recovered, in ICU or deceased. keywords: infection; model; number; people; person; probability; solution; time cache: cord-248301-hddxaatp.txt plain text: cord-248301-hddxaatp.txt item: #21 of 66 id: cord-252556-o4fyjqss author: Bonasera, A. title: Chaos, Percolation and the Coronavirus Spread: a two-step model. date: 2020-05-11 words: 4802 flesch: 60 summary: Looking at other countries experiences, we would suggest that quarantine should not be released before the probability for positives is less than 4% (the maximum of S. Korea, figure 3 ). Fits performed to other countries give a power exponent ranging from 0.73 (S. Korea) to 4.1 (UK). keywords: countries; figure; license; number; preprint; tests; time cache: cord-252556-o4fyjqss.txt plain text: cord-252556-o4fyjqss.txt item: #22 of 66 id: cord-257274-fzyamd7v author: Peiro-Garcia, Alejandro title: How the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting paediatric orthopaedics practice: a preliminary report date: 2020-06-01 words: 3907 flesch: 46 summary: As the COVID-19 pandemic has interfered in our daily practice, we have found a decrease in the number of paediatric trauma patients admitted to our ED, the number of patients visiting onsite to our paediatric orthopaedic clinic and the number of elective cases compared with other years. In the same vein, despite our hospital being a university hospital and receiving residents and fellows from other hospitals, these were required by law to return to their home hospitals to assist with COVID-19 patients. keywords: cases; children; covid-19; number; orthopaedic; pandemic; patients; practice cache: cord-257274-fzyamd7v.txt plain text: cord-257274-fzyamd7v.txt item: #23 of 66 id: cord-258102-7q854ppl author: Mandal, S. title: LOCKDOWN AS A PANDEMIC MITIGATING POLICY INTERVENTION IN INDIA date: 2020-06-20 words: 2301 flesch: 53 summary: [27] are calculated correctly over time, we shall t the daily incidence graph of the two provinces which showed contrarian nature in reproduction numbers, during the initiation phase of lockdown. Newspaper BoÃlle: The R0 package: a toolbox to estimate reproduction numbers for epidemic outbreaks Lockdown Eect on COVID-19Spreadin India: National Data Masking State-Level Trends How Data Became One of the Most Powerful Tools to Fight an Epidemic. keywords: india; interval; lockdown; number; preprint; reproduction; time cache: cord-258102-7q854ppl.txt plain text: cord-258102-7q854ppl.txt item: #24 of 66 id: cord-261530-vmsq5hhz author: Rodriguez, Jorge title: A mechanistic population balance model to evaluate the impact of interventions on infectious disease outbreaks: Case for COVID19 date: 2020-04-07 words: 8362 flesch: 37 summary: The comparison between impacts of social isolation interventions to all or selective by age on the final total number of fatalities ( Figure 13 ) shows that the isolation of the elderly can achieve equivalent impact to that of all.3. Then, data about these parameters are computed with statistical tools for the development of epidemic models (Cooper et al., 2006; Biggerstaff et al., 2014) . keywords: age; fatalities; impact; individuals; interventions; isolation; model; number; population; total; values cache: cord-261530-vmsq5hhz.txt plain text: cord-261530-vmsq5hhz.txt item: #25 of 66 id: cord-270953-z2zwdxrk author: Hittner, J. B. title: Early and massive testing saves lives: COVID-19 related infections and deaths in the United States during March of 2020 date: 2020-05-16 words: 1967 flesch: 47 summary: Cases: cumulative number of confirmed (test-positive) infections Cases/ mill inh: the apparent prevalence, calculated by dividing the number of cases by 197 the population (expressed in million inhabitants) The six predictors accounted for 93.5% of the variance in number of deaths and 86.7% of 83 the variance in deaths/million cases (Supplemental Tables 2A, 2B) . keywords: citizens; number; preprint cache: cord-270953-z2zwdxrk.txt plain text: cord-270953-z2zwdxrk.txt item: #26 of 66 id: cord-272085-4mqc8mqd author: Roques, Lionel title: Impact of Lockdown on the Epidemic Dynamics of COVID-19 in France date: 2020-06-05 words: 4240 flesch: 54 summary: COVID-19 epidemic was reported in the Hubei province in China in December 2019 and then spread around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the beginning of March 2020 (1) . If R e > 1, the number of infectious cases in the population follows an increasing trend, and the larger R e , the faster this trend. keywords: cases; covid-19; epidemic; number; population cache: cord-272085-4mqc8mqd.txt plain text: cord-272085-4mqc8mqd.txt item: #27 of 66 id: cord-272838-wjapj65w author: Liou, Je-Liang title: The effect of China's open-door tourism policy on Taiwan: Promoting or suppressing tourism from other countries to Taiwan? date: 2019-12-09 words: 8152 flesch: 53 summary: However, these positive impacts may not occur if the number of inbound tourists is less than that stipulated by policies implemented by other nations. If the current preparation and arrangement of travel and tourism facilities is specifically designed or developed for China due to its large number of inbound tourists, then other nations have the opportunity to use them only incidentally. keywords: china; inbound; increase; nations; number; policy; regions; revenue; taiwan; tourism; tourists cache: cord-272838-wjapj65w.txt plain text: cord-272838-wjapj65w.txt item: #28 of 66 id: cord-273199-xmq502gm author: Cherednik, I. title: A surprising formula for the spread of Covid-19 under aggressive management date: 2020-05-02 words: 5044 flesch: 61 summary: The reality now is the power-type growth of total number of infections U (t) after a possible short period of exponential growth, Covid-19 included. For Covid-19, c is around 2, which results in the quadratic growth of total number of infections after a short period of its exponential growth. keywords: growth; infections; measures; number; preprint cache: cord-273199-xmq502gm.txt plain text: cord-273199-xmq502gm.txt item: #29 of 66 id: cord-276870-gxtvlji7 author: Bobrowski, Tesia title: Learning from history: do not flatten the curve of antiviral research! date: 2020-07-15 words: 5092 flesch: 43 summary: Additionally, modern computational techniques, such as quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling, molecular docking, and machine-learning approaches are being used now in COVID-19 drug discovery efforts [17, 40, 41] . HIVGov 30 AIDSinfo (2018) FDA-Approved HIV Medicines The application of structural optimization strategies in drug design of HIV NNRTIs EASY-HIT: HIV full-replication technology for broad discovery of multiple classes of HIV inhibitors Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Bromhexine Hydrochloride Tablets Combined With Standard Treatment/ Standard Treatment in Patients With Suspected and Mild Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (COVID-19) COVID-19 Ring-based Prevention Trial With Lopinavir/Ritonavir Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for SARS-Coronavirus-2 HIV epidemiology and the effects of antiviral therapy on longterm consequences Viral evolution and the emergence of SARS coronavirus Immunity Passports' in the Context of COVID-19 Structure of Mpro from COVID-19 virus and discovery of its inhibitors Artificial intelligence and machine learning to fight COVID-19 Mapping the landscape of artificial intelligence applications against Improving Health and Reducing Poverty Trump disbanded NSC pandemic unit that experts had praised CDC to cut by 80 percent efforts to prevent global disease outbreak Tecovirimat for the Treatment of Smallpox Disease Antimicrobial Division Advisory Committee Meeting. keywords: covid-19; data; epidemics; hiv; number; publications; research; response; sars; time cache: cord-276870-gxtvlji7.txt plain text: cord-276870-gxtvlji7.txt item: #30 of 66 id: cord-279245-z8pafxok author: Bonasera, Aldo title: Chaos, Percolation and the Coronavirus Spread: the Italian case date: 2020-04-14 words: 3539 flesch: 60 summary: The Veneto region gave the most efficient response so far and some of their resources could be diverted to other regions, in particular more tests to the Lombardia, Liguria, Piemonte, Marche and V. Aosta regions, which seem to be worst affected. As a preliminary method, we should shift resources from regions, which have less than 15% probability (below the cyan color in the figure) to be infected to higher probability regions. keywords: figure; number; positives; regions; tests cache: cord-279245-z8pafxok.txt plain text: cord-279245-z8pafxok.txt item: #31 of 66 id: cord-282849-ve8krq78 author: Stebler, Rosa title: Extrapolating Antibiotic Sales to Number of Treated Animals: Treatments in Pigs and Calves in Switzerland, 2011–2015 date: 2019-09-20 words: 5938 flesch: 43 summary: Sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in 30 European Joint FAO/OIE/WHO Expert Workshop on Non-Human Antimicrobial Usage and Antimicrobial Resistance: Scientific assessment The antimicrobial resistome in relation to antimicrobial use and biosecurity in pig farming, a metagenome-wide association study in nine European countries Association between antimicrobial usage, biosecurity measures as well as farm performance in German farrow-to-finish farms Factors associated with high antimicrobial use in young calves on Dutch dairy farms: a casecontrol study Antimicrobial resistance: monitoring the quantities of antimicrobials used in animal husbandry Monitoring of Antimicrobial Resistance and Antibiotic Usage in Animals in the Netherlands in 2017 Trends in the Sales of Veterinary Antimicrobial Agents in Nine European Countries Annual report on antimicrobial agents intended for use in animals Canadian Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System Comparison of the sales of veterinary antibacterial agents between 10 European countries ANSES. Antimicrobial sales data are defined as the minimal standard for monitoring programs by the World Organization for Animal Health [Office International des Epizooties, OIE; (10) ]. keywords: animals; antimicrobials; calves; data; level; number; pigs; sales; species; use cache: cord-282849-ve8krq78.txt plain text: cord-282849-ve8krq78.txt item: #32 of 66 id: cord-284195-qarz4o2z author: Ansumali, Santosh title: A Very Flat Peak: Exponential growth phase of COVID-19 is mostly followed by a prolonged linear growth phase, not an immediate saturation date: 2020-04-11 words: 4426 flesch: 53 summary: However, the number of daily COVID-19 infections in many places has been roughly constant, at least for 3 to 4 weeks, after containment measures. key: cord-284195-qarz4o2z authors: Ansumali, Santosh; Prakash, Meher K title: A Very Flat Peak: Exponential growth phase of COVID-19 is mostly followed by a prolonged linear growth phase, not an immediate saturation date: 2020-04-11 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.07.20055772 sha: doc_id: 284195 cord_uid: qarz4o2z When actively taking measures to control an epidemic, an important indicator of success is crossing the peak of daily new infections. keywords: data; exponential; growth; infections; linear; number; rate cache: cord-284195-qarz4o2z.txt plain text: cord-284195-qarz4o2z.txt item: #33 of 66 id: cord-286076-60iwzsp6 author: Ng, Travis title: The value of superstitions date: 2009-12-24 words: 7198 flesch: 62 summary: Second, in each estimation, we control for plate numbers that most people would expect to be expensive, in particular, those with no prefix, prefix of 'HK, and 'XX. Thus, plate numbers that allude to good phrases are associated with higher winning bids. keywords: auction; digit; digit plates; number; plates; price; results; superstitions; value cache: cord-286076-60iwzsp6.txt plain text: cord-286076-60iwzsp6.txt item: #34 of 66 id: cord-299846-yx18oyv6 author: Amar, Patrick title: Pandæsim: An Epidemic Spreading Stochastic Simulator date: 2020-09-18 words: 6362 flesch: 52 summary: A modelling study Transmission interval estimates suggest pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19 Coronavirus Latest: Scientists Scramble to Study Virus Samples Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak and effectiveness of government interventions: A data-driven analysis The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemics in the final phase of the current outbreak in China Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: A modelling study The Behavior of an SIR Epidemic Model with Stochastic Perturbation The long time behavior of DI SIR epidemic model with stochastic perturbation A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with infectious force under intervention strategies A stochastic differential equation SIS epidemic model A multi-regional epidemic model for controlling the spread of Ebola: Awareness, treatment, and travel-blocking optimal control approaches A multi-regions SIRS discrete epidemic model with a travel-blocking vicinity optimal control approach on cells Role of Media and Effects of Infodemics and Escapes in the Spatial Spread of Epidemics: A Stochastic Multi-Region Model with A Study on Herd Immunity of COVID-19 in South Korea: Using a Stochastic Economic-Epidemiological Model Epidemic Spreading in Urban Areas Using Agent-Based Transportation Models An open-data-driven agent-based model to simulate infectious disease outbreaks HSIM: An hybrid stochastic simulation system for systems biology A General Method for Numerically Simulating the Stochastic Time Evolution of Coupled Chemical Reactions Stiffness in stochastic chemically reacting systems: The implicit tau-leaping method Données en Santé Publiques Info Coronavirus Covid 19 Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in china Critical Care Utilization for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: Early Experience and Forecast During an Emergency Response Cluster of COVID-19 in northern France: A retrospective closed cohort study The French connection: The first large population-based contact survey in France relevant for the spread of infectious diseases Cmmid Covid-Working Group, Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship Reinfection could not occur in SARS-CoV-2 infected rhesus macaques The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application Serial interval of COVID-19 among publicly reported confirmed cases Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period The stochastic discrete solver (SDS) computes stochastic integer numbers such that, on the long run, they will average to the same values as the continuous solver. keywords: epidemic; model; number; people; population; region; state; stochastic; sub; time cache: cord-299846-yx18oyv6.txt plain text: cord-299846-yx18oyv6.txt item: #35 of 66 id: cord-300930-47a4pu27 author: Beigel, R. title: Rate Estimation and Identification of COVID-19 Infections: Towards Rational Policy Making During Early and Late Stages of Epidemics date: 2020-05-24 words: 4535 flesch: 59 summary: In this paper we provide relatively efficient pooling methods to both estimate infection rates and identify infected individuals for populations with low infection rates. We now provide a deterministic identification algorithm applicable to populations with small infection rate (Fig 5) . . keywords: infection; license; number; preprint; rate; tests cache: cord-300930-47a4pu27.txt plain text: cord-300930-47a4pu27.txt item: #36 of 66 id: cord-303657-o66rchhw author: El Qadmiry, M. title: On the true numbers of COVID-19 infections: behind the available data date: 2020-05-28 words: 2773 flesch: 51 summary: In our case, we must choose it as d = 341-days to get the simulation of detected cases compatible with the worldwide data of confirmed cases. Our aim in this work is to approach the true number of infected cases, and to develop an analytical method in order to allow the simulation of different scenarios that can occur if we modify the underlying variables of two special 1 medkadmiri@hotmail.fr 2 hassanfa@yahoo.com 3 y-hassou@fsr.ac.ma probabilistic functions. keywords: cases; days; infected; number; preprint cache: cord-303657-o66rchhw.txt plain text: cord-303657-o66rchhw.txt item: #37 of 66 id: cord-304820-q3de7r1p author: Griette, P. title: Clarifying predictions for COVID-19 from testing data: the example of New-York State date: 2020-10-12 words: 3793 flesch: 60 summary: The cumulative number of detectable cases is given by and the cumulative number of undetectable cases is given by Time (in days) Number of reported (tested infectious) cases at time t Cumulative number of reported (tested infectious) cases at time t Daily number of reported (tested infectious) cases at time t Cumulative number of undetectable infectious at time t (2.8) Finally, we can investigate the effect of multiplying the number of tests by 2, 5, 10, and 100 to investigate the consequences on the reduction of the number of reported cases. keywords: cases; data; model; number; tests cache: cord-304820-q3de7r1p.txt plain text: cord-304820-q3de7r1p.txt item: #38 of 66 id: cord-306932-6vt60348 author: Yadlowsky, S. title: Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Prevalence in Santa Clara County date: 2020-03-27 words: 2229 flesch: 51 summary: Therefore, to estimate the number of infections on day t , we use the number of hospitalizations h(t) , and use the formula infections(t) = exp(lag time * exponential growth rate) * h(t) / hospitalization rate . As input parameters to our model, we need an estimate of the lag time , and the rate of growth of infections , and hospitalization rate for COVID-19 among those infected. keywords: hospitalization; infections; number cache: cord-306932-6vt60348.txt plain text: cord-306932-6vt60348.txt item: #39 of 66 id: cord-307471-zukjh1hr author: Feng, Zhilan title: On the benefits of flattening the curve: A perspective() date: 2020-05-27 words: 1303 flesch: 33 summary: This is the mechanism underlying the treatment as prevention approach to reducing HIV infection rates. We also describe possible population-level effects of pharmaceutical interventions The most recent community mitigation guidelines for pandemic influenza (Qualls et al. 2017 ) include a graphic illustrating the goals of non-pharmaceutical interventions, slowing the rate at which new infections occur (incidence), reducing the peak number of infected people (prevalence) and concomitant demands on healthcare facilities and personnel, and decreasing overall infections and deaths. keywords: infections; number; peak cache: cord-307471-zukjh1hr.txt plain text: cord-307471-zukjh1hr.txt item: #40 of 66 id: cord-308505-nhcrbnfu author: Vollmer, Robin title: Understanding the Dynamics of COVID-19 date: 2020-04-13 words: 493 flesch: 56 summary: Regardless, the success for the logistic growth model applied here to COVID-19 suggests that for many populations the number of infected may eventually reach a limit. This in turn could yield higher case fatality rates and therefore smaller estimates of the response rate, v, than are realistic. keywords: number; persons cache: cord-308505-nhcrbnfu.txt plain text: cord-308505-nhcrbnfu.txt item: #41 of 66 id: cord-309378-sfr1x0ob author: Röst, Gergely title: Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios date: 2020-06-30 words: 10531 flesch: 51 summary: Benchmarking the CFR to other countries, we estimated underascertainment rate to be 10-20 times, and the true cumulative number of COVID-19 cases to be between 32,840 and 65,680. R Package Version 1.12.8 Shiny: Web Application Framework for R Real-Time Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Hungary (A Magyarországi Koronavírus jáRvány Valós Idejű Epidemiológiája-In Hungarian) Real-Time Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Hungary (A Magyarországi Koronavírus járváNy Valós Idejű A New Framework and Software to Estimate Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers During Epidemics Different Epidemic Curves for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Reveal Similar Impacts of Control Measures How Generation Intervals Shape the Relationship Between Growth Rates and Reproductive Numbers The Effective Reproduction Number of Pandemic Influenza: Prospective Estimation Association of Public Health Interventions With the Epidemiology of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Wuhan Effective Reproduction Number Estimation Estimating in real time the efficacy of measures to control emerging communicable diseases Serial Interval of COVID-19 Among Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases in Italy and estimates of the reproductive numbers one month into the epidemic Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections The R0 package: A toolbox to estimate reproduction numbers for epidemic outbreaks R0: Estimation of R0 and Real-Time Reproduction Number from Epidemics. keywords: age; cases; contact; control; covid-19; disease; epidemic; figure; model; number; peak; population; reproduction; time; transmission cache: cord-309378-sfr1x0ob.txt plain text: cord-309378-sfr1x0ob.txt item: #42 of 66 id: cord-310983-kwytbhe7 author: Djurović, Igor title: Epidemiological control measures and predicted number of infections for SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: Case Study Serbia March-April 2020 date: 2020-06-17 words: 5577 flesch: 53 summary: Figure 8 gives estimates of two parameters describing the generalized gamma function shape and predicted number infections γ and k for various dates within an interval. key: cord-310983-kwytbhe7 authors: Djurović, Igor title: Epidemiological control measures and predicted number of infections for SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: Case Study Serbia March-April 2020 date: 2020-06-17 journal: Heliyon DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04238 sha: doc_id: 310983 cord_uid: kwytbhe7 BACKGROUND: In this paper, we are studying the response of the Serbian government and health authorities to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the early stage of the local outbreak between Mar. 15(th) and Apr. 15(th), 2020 by predictive numerical models. keywords: days; exponential; growth; infections; mar; measures; number; outbreak cache: cord-310983-kwytbhe7.txt plain text: cord-310983-kwytbhe7.txt item: #43 of 66 id: cord-314211-tv1nhojk author: Eltoukhy, Abdelrahman E. E. title: Data Analytics for Predicting COVID-19 Cases in Top Affected Countries: Observations and Recommendations date: 2020-09-27 words: 9263 flesch: 55 summary: This study investigates how new COVID-19 cases can be predicted while considering the historical data of COVID-19 cases alongside the external factors that affect the spread of the virus. The unexpected large number of COVID-19 cases has disrupted the healthcare system in many countries and resulted in a shortage of bed spaces in the hospitals. keywords: algorithm; countries; covid-19 cases; data; factors; future; network; neural; number; prediction; research; study cache: cord-314211-tv1nhojk.txt plain text: cord-314211-tv1nhojk.txt item: #44 of 66 id: cord-317093-c70c1op4 author: Cheng, Yung-Hsiang title: Urban transportation energy and carbon dioxide emission reduction strategies() date: 2015-11-01 words: 9087 flesch: 43 summary: Thus, energy and carbon dioxide emission reduction is becoming more significant in the sustainability of urban transportation systems. However, urban transportation systems are complex and involve social, economic, and environmental aspects. keywords: city; consumption; emissions; energy; fuel; growth; kaohsiung; model; number; policies; population; system; transportation; urban; vehicles cache: cord-317093-c70c1op4.txt plain text: cord-317093-c70c1op4.txt item: #45 of 66 id: cord-319323-1qt7vf59 author: Chakraborty, Amartya title: Around the world in 60 days: an exploratory study of impact of COVID-19 on online global news sentiment date: 2020-10-21 words: 7876 flesch: 44 summary: Personal and Ubiquitous Computing Sentiment analysis and the complex natural language Stock price prediction using news sentiment analysis Sentiment analysis on english financial news Finenews fine-grained semantic sentiment analysis on financial microblogs and news Market trend prediction using sentiment analysis: lessons learned and paths forward Enhanced news sentiment analysis using deep learning methods Discovering the correlation between stock time series and financial news Time series analysis on stock market for text mining correlation of economy news Trading strategies to exploit blog and news sentiment Agenda-setting The agenda-setting function of mass media Problems and opportunities in agenda-setting research After disaster: Given these observations and the ongoing pandemic, the authors were motivated to make the following research contributions: -The current work determines the general sentiment of news articles during the ongoing pandemic with unsupervised and transfer learning-based approaches, -This is the only work, as per the authors' knowledge, that determines the implications of temporal statistics in a pandemic situation, on news sentiment throughout the world during a fixed period of study. keywords: analysis; cases; correlation; covid-19; data; deaths; global; negativity; news; news sentiment; number; sentiment; study cache: cord-319323-1qt7vf59.txt plain text: cord-319323-1qt7vf59.txt item: #46 of 66 id: cord-326740-1fjr9qr4 author: Perlman, Yael title: Reducing Risk of Infection - the COVID-19 Queueing Game date: 2020-09-03 words: 3189 flesch: 55 summary: When the store is occupied by the maximum number of allowed customers, newly arriving customers wait outside in line until permitted to enter. A customer who arrives when there are M customers already in the store must wait outside in a line (an unlimited queue) until permitted to enter. keywords: area; customers; number; phase; shopping; store cache: cord-326740-1fjr9qr4.txt plain text: cord-326740-1fjr9qr4.txt item: #47 of 66 id: cord-326785-le2t1l8g author: None title: Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. 163rd meeting, 3–5 July 1991 date: 2005-06-15 words: 22778 flesch: 36 summary: SSCs in the Connective tissue were Melled with the antibody along With a number of other cells (lymphocytes) within the germinal centres. These results show that sadium iodoacetate reduces cell number and interferes wqth the manufacture of matrix components. keywords: acp; adhesion; age; analysis; antibodies; antibody; antigen; areas; associated; benign; biopsies; biopsy; bone; breast; carcinoma; cases; cells; changes; chronic; common; day; days; diagnosis; disease; distribution; dna; electron; epithelium; evidence; expression; features; formation; gene; grade; group; high; hpv; human; increase; inflammatory; kidney; lesions; light; lor; low; lung; malignant; material; mean; microscopy; model; muscle; negative; non; normal; number; paraffin; pathology; patients; present; protein; range; renal; response; results; sections; specimens; staining; study; system; technique; thought; time; tissue; treatment; tumour; turnours; type; wlth; years cache: cord-326785-le2t1l8g.txt plain text: cord-326785-le2t1l8g.txt item: #48 of 66 id: cord-328859-qx7kvn0u author: Zhu, Hongjun title: Transmission Dynamics and Control Methodology of COVID-19: a Modeling Study date: 2020-09-21 words: 6177 flesch: 51 summary: Computing Asymptotic behavior and stability in epidemic models Stability analysis for a vector disease model The generalized discrete-time epidemic model with immunity: a synthesis Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome The mathematics of infectious diseases Some evolutionary stochastic processes A simple stochastic epidemic Analysis of an SEIRS epidemic model with two delays An approximate maximum likelihood estimator for chain binomial models See [14] and [25] for an extensive review of classic epidemic models. keywords: covid-19; epidemic; individuals; infectives; model; number; period; seir; time; wuhan cache: cord-328859-qx7kvn0u.txt plain text: cord-328859-qx7kvn0u.txt item: #49 of 66 id: cord-329357-ujh2nmh5 author: Ben Miled, S. title: Simulations of the spread of COVID-19 and control policies in Tunisia date: 2020-05-06 words: 3117 flesch: 59 summary: Let CRt) the cumulative number of reported infectious cases at time t, defined by, Let's assume that CR(t) = χ1 exp(χ2t) − χ3 with χ, χ2 and χ3 three positive parameters that we estimate using log-linear regression on cases data (see figure 2 and table 2). the cumulative number of reported infectious cases at time t, defined by, Let's assume that CR(t) = χ1 exp(χ2t) − χ3 with χ, χ2 and χ3 three positive parameters. keywords: infected; model; number; preprint cache: cord-329357-ujh2nmh5.txt plain text: cord-329357-ujh2nmh5.txt item: #50 of 66 id: cord-330956-692irru4 author: Pazos, F. A. title: A control approach to the Covid-19 disease using a SEIHRD dynamical model date: 2020-05-30 words: 6322 flesch: 56 summary: On the other hand, as noted in Sec. 3, to adopt as feedback variable the number of hospitalized people may lead to an overload of the health system in the following 10.6 days, for which a predictive control must be used that consider the number of infected people I. Not all infected people need hospitalization. These data include number of deaths, maximum number of infected people, time at which the maximum infection rate will occur, among other information useful to prevent and reduce the damage produced by the outbreak. keywords: control; disease; model; number; people; population cache: cord-330956-692irru4.txt plain text: cord-330956-692irru4.txt item: #51 of 66 id: cord-331375-tbuijeje author: Villalobos, Carlos title: SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the World: An Estimation of the Infected Population and a Measure of How Higher Detection Rates Save Lives date: 2020-09-25 words: 7208 flesch: 42 summary: Moreover, we showed evidence that moving from relatively low to high cumulative detection rates (and thus saving lives) is unlikely and difficult. Thirdly, in this paper, we test the hypothesis that higher detection rates can save lives while providing a measure of this impact (having in mind that is preferable to be vaguely right than precisely wrong). keywords: cov-2; deaths; detection; detection rates; individuals; infections; number; pandemic; rates; sars cache: cord-331375-tbuijeje.txt plain text: cord-331375-tbuijeje.txt item: #52 of 66 id: cord-334274-4jee19hx author: Waelde, K. title: How to remove the testing bias in CoV-2 statistics date: 2020-10-16 words: 7041 flesch: 57 summary: Official confirmed infection numbers are likely to be biased and cannot be compared over time. If a society always employed only one rule when tests are taken, e.g. test for SARS-CoV-2 in the presence of a certain set of symptoms, then infection numbers would be comparable over time. keywords: cov-2; individuals; infections; number; symptoms; t t; testing; tests cache: cord-334274-4jee19hx.txt plain text: cord-334274-4jee19hx.txt item: #53 of 66 id: cord-337992-g4bsul8u author: Voinson, Marina title: Stochastic dynamics of an epidemic with recurrent spillovers from an endemic reservoir date: 2018-11-14 words: 9645 flesch: 49 summary: In the incidental host, the infection can propagate by direct contact at rate βSI where I is the number of infected individuals and β is the individual rate of infection transmission. Here we aim to investigate the importance of spillover transmission for explaining the number and the size of outbreaks. keywords: host; individuals; number; outbreaks; pathogen; reservoir; spillover; transmission cache: cord-337992-g4bsul8u.txt plain text: cord-337992-g4bsul8u.txt item: #54 of 66 id: cord-340131-refvewcm author: Kache, Tom title: How Simulations May Help Us to Understand the Dynamics of COVID‐19 Spread. – Visualizing Non‐Intuitive Behaviors of a Pandemic (pansim.uni‐jena.de) date: 2020-06-04 words: 2454 flesch: 58 summary: In the model, infected agents reduce their mobility earlier and therefore the transmission rate is reduced. The number of susceptible (grey), symptomatic (red) and total number of infected agents (black) is counted after each update interval and displayed in a live-updating plotly.js graph. keywords: agents; cases; disease; model; number cache: cord-340131-refvewcm.txt plain text: cord-340131-refvewcm.txt item: #55 of 66 id: cord-341088-bqdvx458 author: Rice, Ken title: Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019: old and new predictions date: 2020-10-07 words: 4931 flesch: 48 summary: similarly, comparing general social distancing with equivalent scenarios without social distancing, the second wave peak in the case isolation, household quarantine, and general social distancing scenario is higher than the first wave peak in the case isolation and household quarantine scenario. Figure 2 provides an explanation for how place closure interventions affect the second wave and why an extra intervention might result in more deaths than the equivalent scenario without this intervention. keywords: data; deaths; distancing; interventions; isolation; number; place; report cache: cord-341088-bqdvx458.txt plain text: cord-341088-bqdvx458.txt item: #56 of 66 id: cord-344817-8xz7xbh1 author: Hens, Niel title: The COVID-19 epidemic, its mortality, and the role of non-pharmaceutical interventions date: 2020-04-30 words: 2460 flesch: 52 summary: It is not merely numbers but also the severity of cases, even when non-fatal. Further, the earlier that contact rates are drastically reduced (severe social distancing), the better. keywords: cases; covid-19; epidemic; number; rate cache: cord-344817-8xz7xbh1.txt plain text: cord-344817-8xz7xbh1.txt item: #57 of 66 id: cord-344911-pw0ghz3m author: July, Julius title: Impact of the coronavirus disease pandemic on the number of strokes and mechanical thrombectomies: A systematic review and meta-analysis: COVID-19 and Stroke Care date: 2020-07-22 words: 2125 flesch: 41 summary: The number of mechanical thrombectomies per stroke patient was higher during the pandemic (OR 1.23 [1.12-1.36], p<0.001; I(2): 0%, p=0.845). However, the number of mechanical thrombectomies per stroke patient was higher during the pandemic (OR 1.23 [1.12-1.36], p<0.001; I 2 : 0%, p=0.845). keywords: analysis; covid-19; number; pandemic; stroke cache: cord-344911-pw0ghz3m.txt plain text: cord-344911-pw0ghz3m.txt item: #58 of 66 id: cord-347317-qcghtkk0 author: Russo, Lucia title: Tracing day-zero and forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: A compartmental modelling and numerical optimization approach date: 2020-10-30 words: 9793 flesch: 44 summary: Our analysis further revealed that the actual number of asymptomatic infected cases in the total population in the period until March 8 was around 15 times the number of confirmed infected cases, which until March 8 was also approximately equal to the number of cases that were hospitalized and admitted to ICUs. The model approximated adequately two months ahead of time the evolution of reported cases of infected until May 4, the day on which the phase I of the relaxation of measures was implemented over all of Italy. keywords: cases; covid-19; day; lombardy; march; model; number; outbreak; period; population; reproduction number; time cache: cord-347317-qcghtkk0.txt plain text: cord-347317-qcghtkk0.txt item: #59 of 66 id: cord-348584-j3r2veou author: Sipetas, Charalampos title: Estimation of left behind subway passengers through archived data and video image processing date: 2020-07-30 words: 9821 flesch: 49 summary: The results show that by fusing passenger counts from video with train operations data, the number of passengers left behind during a day’s rush period can be estimated within [Formula: see text] of their actual number. The accuracy of the model predictions is then calculated relative to manually observed passenger counts on the same day, as shown in Section 7.2. keywords: counts; data; detection; model; number; passengers; platform; station; time; train; video; waiting cache: cord-348584-j3r2veou.txt plain text: cord-348584-j3r2veou.txt item: #60 of 66 id: cord-350510-o4libq5d author: Grinfeld, M. title: On Linear Growth in COVID-19 Cases date: 2020-06-22 words: 2155 flesch: 60 summary: It would be interesting to investigate models in which g is a function of more than the last day's data, or of undominated maxima in the number of new cases, but we assume here for simplicity that R(n) is a reasonable proxy for the information stream. key: cord-350510-o4libq5d authors: Grinfeld, M.; Mulheran, P. A. title: On Linear Growth in COVID-19 Cases date: 2020-06-22 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.19.20135640 sha: doc_id: 350510 cord_uid: o4libq5d We present an elementary model of COVID-19 propagation that makes explicit the connection between testing strategies and rates of transmission and the linear growth in new cases observed in many parts of the world. keywords: cases; model; number; rate cache: cord-350510-o4libq5d.txt plain text: cord-350510-o4libq5d.txt item: #61 of 66 id: cord-351430-bpv7p7zo author: Pequeno, Pedro title: Air transportation, population density and temperature predict the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil date: 2020-06-03 words: 4789 flesch: 37 summary: We evaluated the effect of meteorological conditions (temperature, solar radiation, air humidity and precipitation) on 292 daily records of cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases across the 27 Brazilian capital cities during the 1st month of the outbreak, while controlling for an indicator of the number of tests, the number of arriving flights, population density, proportion of elderly people and average income. Therefore, we performed two versions of the above analysis: one including all predictors but excluding days for which precipitation was lacking (n = 269) and another one excluding precipitation as predictor and using all counts of confirmed COVID-19 cases (n = 292). keywords: cases; cities; covid-19; mean; number; predictors; temperature; time cache: cord-351430-bpv7p7zo.txt plain text: cord-351430-bpv7p7zo.txt item: #62 of 66 id: cord-351830-x4sv6ieu author: Gollier, Christian title: Pandemic economics: optimal dynamic confinement under uncertainty and learning date: 2020-08-17 words: 5054 flesch: 56 summary: Optimal confinement x * 0 in stage 1 as a function of the intensity h of the uncertainty. key: cord-351830-x4sv6ieu authors: Gollier, Christian title: Pandemic economics: optimal dynamic confinement under uncertainty and learning date: 2020-08-17 journal: Geneva Risk Insur Rev DOI: 10.1057/s10713-020-00052-1 sha: doc_id: 351830 cord_uid: x4sv6ieu Most integrated models of the covid pandemic have been developed under the assumption that the policy-sensitive reproduction number is certain. keywords: confinement; intensity; number; uncertainty cache: cord-351830-x4sv6ieu.txt plain text: cord-351830-x4sv6ieu.txt item: #63 of 66 id: cord-353318-12o3xniz author: Ren, Zongyuan title: Generalized Z-numbers with hesitant fuzzy linguistic information and its application to medicine selection for the patients with mild symptoms of the COVID-19 date: 2020-05-01 words: 5246 flesch: 51 summary: A Z-number is an order pair of fuzzy numbers A B ( , ), where A represents the fuzzy restriction of information and B represents the probability measure of the reliability of A. Since Zadeh put forward the concept of Z-numbers, there has been an endless stream of research on Z-numbers. To sum up, the study dedicates to achieving the following innovative contributions: (1) The elements of Z-numbers are generalized from classical fuzzy numbers or linguistic terms to HFLTSs and the generalized Znumber is introduced. keywords: decision; evaluation; evidence; method; numbers; reliability; theory cache: cord-353318-12o3xniz.txt plain text: cord-353318-12o3xniz.txt item: #64 of 66 id: cord-354835-o0nscint author: Roy, Sayak title: Epidemiological Determinants of COVID-19-Related Patient Outcomes in Different Countries and Plan of Action: A Retrospective Analysis date: 2020-06-04 words: 2469 flesch: 41 summary: The correlations between population characteristics and socioeconomic variables in various countries as discussed earlier with respect to outcome in terms of total positive cases and fatality rate due to COVID-19 are summarized in Table 2 . R-value P-value There is a strong positive correlation between GDP expense on the health of a country with the number of cases getting detected. The correlation coefficient was calculated by plotting dependant variables - the number of COVID-19 cases and the number of deaths due to COVID 19 on the Y-axis and independent variables - critical-care beds per capita, the median age of the population of the country, the number of COVID-19 tests per million population, population density (persons per square km), urban population percentage, and gross domestic product (GDP) expense on health care - on the X-axis. keywords: cases; countries; covid-19; number; population cache: cord-354835-o0nscint.txt plain text: cord-354835-o0nscint.txt item: #65 of 66 id: cord-355017-934v85q1 author: Pérez-Cameo, Cristina title: Serosurveys and convalescent plasma in COVID-19 date: 2020-05-01 words: 853 flesch: 42 summary: Furthermore, the real number of convalescent patients may be much greater than the number based on the recovery of previously identified patients because of the existence of asymptomatic and mild infections. The number of identified recovered patients equals approximately the number of identified active patients three weeks earlier minus the deaths. keywords: number; patients cache: cord-355017-934v85q1.txt plain text: cord-355017-934v85q1.txt item: #66 of 66 id: cord-355201-pjoqahhk author: Li, X. title: Discrete simulation analysis of COVID-19 and prediction of isolation bed numbers date: 2020-07-14 words: 5072 flesch: 44 summary: By setting different epidemic indicators (incubation period, hospital response time, healing time, population mobility rate), we analyzed the changing laws of the epidemic situation, peak value, and scale of the epidemic in different situations. The t-test showed that the independent variables of incubation period, population mobility rate, hospital response time and . keywords: cases; groups; incubation; isolation; number; preprint; time cache: cord-355201-pjoqahhk.txt plain text: cord-355201-pjoqahhk.txt