item: #1 of 71 id: cord-005350-19za0msu author: O’Regan, Suzanne M. title: Theory of early warning signals of disease emergenceand leading indicators of elimination date: 2013-05-31 words: 14420 flesch: 48 summary: (13) enables us to establish the quasi-stationary statistics that potentially could be used as leading indicators of a critical transition in SIS infectious disease systems. We further showed that moving-window estimates of these quantities may be used for anticipating critical transitions in infectious disease systems. keywords: bifurcation; case; disease; fluctuations; model; sir; sis; state; system; time; transition cache: cord-005350-19za0msu.txt plain text: cord-005350-19za0msu.txt item: #2 of 71 id: cord-007399-qbgz7eqt author: Bilal, Shakir title: Effects of quasiperiodic forcing in epidemic models date: 2016-09-22 words: 5177 flesch: 48 summary: The inclusion of seasonality in transmission models has helped in explaining spatiotemporal variations in incidence of infectious diseases such as measles. Consequently, a better understanding of how internal factors (e.g., immunity) of disease dynamics, in association with variable (as opposed to regular/periodic) external forcing, shape up outbreak trajectories is lacking. keywords: attractors; dynamics; models; modulation; rate; sir; transmission cache: cord-007399-qbgz7eqt.txt plain text: cord-007399-qbgz7eqt.txt item: #3 of 71 id: cord-007404-s2qnhswe author: Shu, Panpan title: Numerical identification of epidemic thresholds for susceptible-infected-recovered model on finite-size networks date: 2015-06-04 words: 4289 flesch: 48 summary: Considering that the large fluctuation of the outbreak size occurs near the epidemic threshold, we propose a novel numerical identification method of SIR epidemic threshold by analyzing the peak of the epidemic variability. The numerical method presented can effectively identify SIR epidemic thresholds on various networks, and could be extended to other dynamical processes such as information diffusion and behavior spreading. keywords: epidemic threshold; networks; numerical; outbreak; sir cache: cord-007404-s2qnhswe.txt plain text: cord-007404-s2qnhswe.txt item: #4 of 71 id: cord-010715-91fob3ax author: Hasegawa, Takehisa title: Outbreaks in susceptible-infected-removed epidemics with multiple seeds date: 2016-03-30 words: 5810 flesch: 65 summary: To consider the connectivity of numerous R components, we use the following procedure: (i) We first calculate the probability, P n , that the size of the R component generated by a single seed is n. (ii) For the case of ρ > 0, the system has numerous R components proportional to ρ. Here we replaced the transmissibility T in [10] with λ as T = λ/(μ + λ) with μ = 1 The susceptibilities χ R and χ S are given as χ R = r =rmax r 2 n R (r) and χ S = s =smax s 2 n S (s) Introduction to Percolation Theory Finite components have no cyclic path in infinite locally treelike networks Let us consider a finite network with N nodes. keywords: sir cache: cord-010715-91fob3ax.txt plain text: cord-010715-91fob3ax.txt item: #5 of 71 id: cord-010719-90379pjd author: Saeedian, M. title: Memory effects on epidemic evolution: The susceptible-infected-recovered epidemic model date: 2017-02-21 words: 4814 flesch: 56 summary: Also in [48] the authors use fractional order differential equations for epidemic models and concentrate on the equilibrium points of the models and their asymptotic stability of differential equations of fractional order. While much effort has been made so far to determine exact epidemic thresholds in Markovian epidemic models [30] [31] keywords: epidemic; individuals; memory; model; system; time cache: cord-010719-90379pjd.txt plain text: cord-010719-90379pjd.txt item: #6 of 71 id: cord-016965-z7a6eoyo author: Brockmann, Dirk title: Human Mobility, Networks and Disease Dynamics on a Global Scale date: 2017-10-23 words: 6793 flesch: 51 summary: Compared to the conventional use of geographic distance effective distance is a much better predictor of epidemic arrival time as is reflected by the linear relationship between arrival time and effective distance, e.g. compare to Fig. Effective distance should therefore decrease with traffic flux. keywords: distance; epidemic; fig; location; model; network; outbreak; population; system cache: cord-016965-z7a6eoyo.txt plain text: cord-016965-z7a6eoyo.txt item: #7 of 71 id: cord-029725-px209lf0 author: Anand, Nikhil title: Predicting the Spread of COVID-19 Using [Formula: see text] Model Augmented to Incorporate Quarantine and Testing date: 2020-07-24 words: 3274 flesch: 53 summary: Mathematical modelling using improved SIR model with more realistic assumptions 2020) epidemic landscape and forecasting of SARS-CoV-2 in India Report-9, impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. This assumption is violated in a scenario wherein restrictions such as quarantine and social distancing are enforced, in which case the portion of infected population which is quarantined will not be contributing in the spread of the disease. keywords: lockdown; model; number; people; population cache: cord-029725-px209lf0.txt plain text: cord-029725-px209lf0.txt item: #8 of 71 id: cord-034824-eelqmzdx author: Guo, Chungu title: Influential Nodes Identification in Complex Networks via Information Entropy date: 2020-02-21 words: 5772 flesch: 49 summary: For example, collaboration networks [1] are used to cover the scientific collaborations between authors, email networks [2] denote the email communications between users, protein-DNA networks [3] help people gain a deep insight on biochemical reaction, railway networks [4] reveal the structure of railway via complex network methods, social networks show interactions between people Greedy method is usually used as the upper bound, but it is not efficient in large networks due to its high time complexity. keywords: algorithm; enrenew; entropy; influence; information; initial; methods; networks; nodes; spreaders; spreading cache: cord-034824-eelqmzdx.txt plain text: cord-034824-eelqmzdx.txt item: #9 of 71 id: cord-102966-7vdz661d author: Nikolaou, M. title: A Fundamental Inconsistency in the SIR Model Structure and Proposed Remedies date: 2020-05-01 words: 4493 flesch: 56 summary: Comparison of the profiles for the first-order Padé SIR, second-order Padé SIR, dSIR, and SIR models. + 1� (25) Note that the above * , exact for the first-order Padé SIR model and approximate for the second-order Padé SIR and dSIR models, is double the * of the standard SIR model, as confirmed in Figure 8 . keywords: dsir; eqn; figure; model; sir; structure cache: cord-102966-7vdz661d.txt plain text: cord-102966-7vdz661d.txt item: #10 of 71 id: cord-103598-8umv06ox author: Ambrosio, Benjamin title: On a coupled time-dependent SIR models fitting with New York and New-Jersey states COVID-19 data date: 2020-06-10 words: 4128 flesch: 69 summary: SIR models are very classic in literature. Here are also some examples of references for SIR models in other epidemic diseases: Dengue keywords: data; model; number; time cache: cord-103598-8umv06ox.txt plain text: cord-103598-8umv06ox.txt item: #11 of 71 id: cord-104158-l7s2utqb author: Maheshwari, H. title: CoSIR: Managing an Epidemic via Optimal Adaptive Control of Transmission Policy date: 2020-11-13 words: 5455 flesch: 52 summary: In Section 5, we leverage the properties of the LV system to propose strategies for restriction control. The problem of stabilizing infection levels assuming SIR dynamics has a direct analogy with population control in LV predator-prey systems where it is desirable to maintain the predator and prey population at certain target levels suitable for the ecosystem. keywords: control; model; population; rate; restriction; sir; system cache: cord-104158-l7s2utqb.txt plain text: cord-104158-l7s2utqb.txt item: #12 of 71 id: cord-121428-79wyxedn author: Dimarco, G. title: Social contacts and the spread of infectious diseases date: 2020-09-02 words: 8658 flesch: 47 summary: key: cord-121428-79wyxedn authors: Dimarco, G.; Perthame, B.; Toscani, G.; Zanella, M. title: Social contacts and the spread of infectious diseases date: 2020-09-02 journal: nan DOI: nan sha: doc_id: 121428 cord_uid: 79wyxedn Motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic, we introduce a mathematical description of the impact of sociality in the spread of infectious diseases by integrating an epidemiological dynamic with a kinetic modeling of population-based contacts. The kinetic description leads to study the evolution over time of Boltzmann type equations describing the number densities of social contacts of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals, whose proportions are driven by a classical compartmental model in epidemiology. keywords: contacts; distribution; epidemic; function; infected; model; number; system; time cache: cord-121428-79wyxedn.txt plain text: cord-121428-79wyxedn.txt item: #13 of 71 id: cord-131678-rvg1ayp2 author: Ponce, Marcelo title: covid19.analytics: An R Package to Obtain, Analyze and Visualize Data from the Corona Virus Disease Pandemic date: 2020-09-02 words: 15209 flesch: 66 summary: # retrieve aggregated data data <-covid19 . Date ( 2020 / 4 / 09 ) , days ) # data . keywords: cases; chr; covid19.analytics; dashboard; data; function; generate; geo; growth; location; model; number; output; package; ppe; rate; series; server; shiny; time; users cache: cord-131678-rvg1ayp2.txt plain text: cord-131678-rvg1ayp2.txt item: #14 of 71 id: cord-140977-mg04drna author: Maltezos, S. title: Methodology for Modelling the new COVID-19 Pandemic Spread and Implementation to European Countries date: 2020-06-27 words: 3987 flesch: 50 summary: Also A is constant while n and τ are model parameters. From the obtained solution for R 0 we can also calculate the parameter a of SIR model, a = βR 0 , where β can be calculated from the peak value of the daily reported recovered individuals by the formula, β = R p /I tot,p , where I tot,p represents the integral of the DRC curve with upper limit the peaking time t p . keywords: epidemic; model; number; time cache: cord-140977-mg04drna.txt plain text: cord-140977-mg04drna.txt item: #15 of 71 id: cord-146213-924ded7t author: Kiamari, Mehrdad title: COVID-19 Risk Estimation using a Time-varying SIR-model date: 2020-08-11 words: 3691 flesch: 50 summary: For discrete-time cases such as daily reporting on number of infected cases, the time-variant effective contact rate β t , which represents the contact rate for time slot t can be derived by solving the following equation: Therefore, the time-variant effective reproduction number would be defined as R t βt σ . In accordance with LA county daily press releases, there is a sharp jump in both R t and risk score around the beginning of July. keywords: model; number; risk; score; time cache: cord-146213-924ded7t.txt plain text: cord-146213-924ded7t.txt item: #16 of 71 id: cord-152881-k1hx1m61 author: Toda, Alexis Akira title: Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Dynamics of COVID-19 and Economic Impact date: 2020-03-25 words: 4656 flesch: 63 summary: Figure 5 shows the dynamics of SIR model when (β, γ) = (0.2, 0.1), y 0 = 10 −6 , 10 −5 , 10 −4 , and z 0 Figure 5 : Dynamics of SIR model when (β, γ) = (0.2, 0.1), y 0 keywords: epidemic; model; rate cache: cord-152881-k1hx1m61.txt plain text: cord-152881-k1hx1m61.txt item: #17 of 71 id: cord-153905-qszvwqtj author: Bizet, Nana Cabo title: Modelos SIR modificados para la evoluci'on del COVID19 date: 2020-04-23 words: 5535 flesch: 59 summary: Para aclarar aún más nuestra idea mostraremos las curvas de Alemania y Corea del Sur, esta ultima ya en fase de salida de la epidemia. − γ A continuación discutiremos las soluciones del sistema SIR en los casos de que el número de infectados es mucho más pequeño que la población keywords: como; con; contagio; datos; de la; del; esta; este; infectados; las; los; modelo; muestra; número; observados; para; población; por; que; sir; tasa; tiempo; una; valores cache: cord-153905-qszvwqtj.txt plain text: cord-153905-qszvwqtj.txt item: #18 of 71 id: cord-155015-w3k7r5z9 author: Arazi, R. title: Discontinuous transitions of social distancing date: 2020-08-16 words: 3540 flesch: 61 summary: Association of social distancing transitions only with s th is supported by the fit of COVID-19 data. Social distancing changes as pandemic unfolds, reflecting a change in personal and government beliefs in the future. keywords: distancing; function; model; work cache: cord-155015-w3k7r5z9.txt plain text: cord-155015-w3k7r5z9.txt item: #19 of 71 id: cord-159425-fgbruo9l author: Paticchio, Alessandro title: Semi-supervised Neural Networks solve an inverse problem for modeling Covid-19 spread date: 2020-10-10 words: 2531 flesch: 51 summary: Starting from random z 0 and θ, a solutionẑ(t) is generated, then a gradient descent optimizer adjusts z 0 and θ in order to minimize the loss function: Figure 1 : Semi-supervised neural network architecture. Statistical methods in medical research Solving differential equations using neural network solution bundles Modelling the covid-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in italy Multiple epidemic wave model of the covid-19 pandemic: Modeling study The first 100 days: Modeling the evolution of the covid-19 pandemic Early dynamics of transmission and control of covid-19: a mathematical modelling study. keywords: covid-19; data; method; model cache: cord-159425-fgbruo9l.txt plain text: cord-159425-fgbruo9l.txt item: #20 of 71 id: cord-167454-ivhqeu01 author: Battiston, Pietro title: COVID-19: $R_0$ is lower where outbreak is larger date: 2020-04-16 words: 4527 flesch: 43 summary: While for a same level of R 0 we expect the predicted time to extinction to increase with the initial outbreak size, the fact that the R 0 is negatively related to initial outbreak size -and that a lower R 0 leads to a quicker extinction -leaves theoretically undetermined the relationship between initial outbreak size and duration of the outbreak. In particular, there is a robust and strongly significant negative correlation between the estimated basic reproduction number ($R_0$) and the initial outbreak size, in contrast with the role of $R_0$ as a emph{predictor} of outbreak size. keywords: cases; data; municipalities; number; outbreak; size cache: cord-167454-ivhqeu01.txt plain text: cord-167454-ivhqeu01.txt item: #21 of 71 id: cord-174036-b3frnfr7 author: Thomas, Loring J. title: Spatial Heterogeneity Can Lead to Substantial Local Variations in COVID-19 Timing and Severity date: 2020-05-20 words: 6667 flesch: 40 summary: To model networks of potential contacts at scale, we employ spatial network models (19) , which are both computationally tractable and able to capture the effects of geography and population heterogeneity on network structure (20) . We also present chloropleth maps showing spatial variation in peak infection times, as well as the correlations between the infection trajectory within local areal units and the aggregate infection trajectory for the city as a whole. keywords: city; covid-19; days; diffusion; disease; heterogeneity; individuals; infection; models; network; time cache: cord-174036-b3frnfr7.txt plain text: cord-174036-b3frnfr7.txt item: #22 of 71 id: cord-175366-jomeywqr author: Massonis, Gemma title: Structural Identifiability and Observability of Compartmental Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic date: 2020-06-25 words: 6470 flesch: 38 summary: However, the accuracy of mechanistic models is constrained by the uncertainties in our knowledge, which creates uncertainties in model parameters and even in the model structure [8] . Figure 1 : Classification of SIR models. keywords: covid-19; identifiability; individuals; model; observability; parameters; rate; states; time cache: cord-175366-jomeywqr.txt plain text: cord-175366-jomeywqr.txt item: #23 of 71 id: cord-184685-ho72q46e author: Huang, Tongtong title: Population stratification enables modeling effects of reopening policies on mortality and hospitalization rates date: 2020-08-10 words: 4853 flesch: 42 summary: Among existing models, the ODE compartment-based models occupy a middle ground between network models at the individual-level and purely count-driven statistical analyses that are disease-dynamics-agnostic, which will be our main interest in this paper. Compartment models, which originated in the early 20th century keywords: contact; covid-19; data; hcd; hospitalization; model; mortality; policies; population; reopening cache: cord-184685-ho72q46e.txt plain text: cord-184685-ho72q46e.txt item: #24 of 71 id: cord-186927-b8i85vo7 author: Hubert, Emma title: Incentives, lockdown, and testing: from Thucydides's analysis to the COVID-19 pandemic date: 2020-09-01 words: 19294 flesch: 53 summary: The associated reproduction number R 0 , commonly defined by R 0 := β/(ν + ρ) in the literature on epidemic models, is equal to 2.0, and is thus in the confidence interval of available data, see for example Li et al. This type of model seems in fact well suited to model epidemics related to new viruses, such as the COVID-19, when the immunity of infected persons has not yet been proved. keywords: case; control; disease; epidemic; government; infected; model; policy; population; problem; rate; testing; time cache: cord-186927-b8i85vo7.txt plain text: cord-186927-b8i85vo7.txt item: #25 of 71 id: cord-187462-fxuzd9qf author: Palladino, Andrea title: Modelling the spread of Covid19 in Italy using a revised version of the SIR model date: 2020-05-18 words: 3210 flesch: 58 summary: The SIR model is based on the assumption of a totally susceptible population at time t 0 , i.e. the beginning of the spreading. Given the lack of reliable and long-term data regarding incubation period, virulence, contagiousness, and other transmission parameters [1] for the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the lack of reliable drugs and vaccines [3] , containment measurements, the tracking of infected people and the treatment of patients in the early stage of the illness, remain the only feasible option to face the ongoing outbreak of the virus that is leading to a collapsing health system with thousands of deaths, as seen in hotspots. keywords: model; people; time cache: cord-187462-fxuzd9qf.txt plain text: cord-187462-fxuzd9qf.txt item: #26 of 71 id: cord-187700-716af719 author: Lee, Duan-Shin title: Epidemic Spreading in a Social Network with Facial Masks wearing Individuals date: 2020-10-31 words: 5590 flesch: 66 summary: A randomly selected individual from a population is a type 1 individual with probability p, and is of type 2 with probability 1 − p. A randomly selected node is of type 1 with probability p and is of type 2 with probability 1 keywords: individuals; model; probability cache: cord-187700-716af719.txt plain text: cord-187700-716af719.txt item: #27 of 71 id: cord-188958-id9m3mfk author: Vrugt, Michael te title: Containing a pandemic: Nonpharmaceutical interventions and the"second wave" date: 2020-09-30 words: 6305 flesch: 60 summary: A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics Global dynamics of SIR model with switched transmission rate Effects of social distancing and isolation on epidemic spreading modeled via dynamical density functional theory The nature of the liquid-vapour interface and other topics in the statistical mechanics of non-uniform, classical fluids Dynamic density functional theory of fluids Dynamical density functional theory and its application to spinodal decomposition Classical dynamical density functional theory: from fundamentals to applications Dynamics of SIR model with vaccination and heterogeneous behavioral response of individuals modeled by the Preisach operator Memory effects in population dynamics: spread of infectious disease as a case study Ein Plan für den Herbst The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda A simple mathematical model for Ebola in Africa SARS-CoV-2 infection protects against rechallenge in rhesus macaques Geographic and temporal development of plagues Face masks against COVID-19: an evidence review Täglicher Lagebericht des RKI zur Coronavirus-Krankheit-2019 (COVID-19 Der Puls steigt Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) Global stability analysis for a generalized delayed SIR model with vaccination and treatment Mechanism for the stabilization of protein clusters above the solubility curve Controlling the microstructure and phase behavior of confined soft colloids by active interaction switching A hybrid multi-scale model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics to assess the potential of non-pharmaceutical interventions Binary Gaussian core model: fluid-fluid phase separation and interfacial properties Modellierung von Beispielszenarien der SARS-CoV-2-Epidemie 2020 in Deutschland Rates and probabilities in economic modelling (8) while keeping c constant models a scenario in which (Figs. 2G-2J) . keywords: model; number; persons; phase; shutdown; sir; start; wave cache: cord-188958-id9m3mfk.txt plain text: cord-188958-id9m3mfk.txt item: #28 of 71 id: cord-189434-nrkvbdu4 author: Steinmann, Paul title: Analytical Mechanics Allows Novel Vistas on Mathematical Epidemic Dynamics Modelling date: 2020-06-06 words: 5590 flesch: 31 summary: The supremum condition identifies I • with the derivative ∂ S H(Z) of the Hamiltonian in minimal phase space coordinates from Eq. 9 with respect to the generalized momentum, and renders Re-solving the above supremum condition for S in terms of I • delivers Based on the Lagrangian in minimal state space coordinates, Hamilton's principle results in the stationarity condition Clearly, the Euler-Lagrange equation in minimal state space coordinates coincides with the single, non-linear ODE formulation of the time re-parameterized SIR model in Eq. 7. Alternatively, extended state space coordinates collectively assembled in the column matrix Q ∈ R 2 , i.e. the generalized coordinates jointly defined as the stock of individuals in the Infected and Susceptible compartments, span the two-dimensional state space Ë, J t = J · Q and J 2 = −I, an additional constraint for the extended phase space coordinates emerges The Hamiltonian H(Q, P ) in extended phase space coordinates thus follows from Legendre transformation by incorporating the constraint via the Lagrange multiplier Λ, i.e. Taking into account the explicit form of the Lagrangian L(Q, Q • ) in extended state space coordinates from Eq. 25 then renders the explicit representation of the Hamiltonian H(Q, P ) in extended phase space coordinates Invoking ∂ Q C(Q, P ) keywords: hamiltonian; model; phase space; space coordinates; state space; time cache: cord-189434-nrkvbdu4.txt plain text: cord-189434-nrkvbdu4.txt item: #29 of 71 id: cord-190296-erpoh5he author: Schaback, Robert title: On COVID-19 Modelling date: 2020-05-11 words: 9450 flesch: 70 summary: When mentioning Johns Hopkins data, they provide C, D, and R separately without stating the most important figures, namely I = C − D − R, their change, and the change of their change. Recall that the determination of these variables is done while there are Johns Hopkins data available, following section 4.5, and will be dependent on the data-driven estimations described there. keywords: data; infectious; model; sir; time cache: cord-190296-erpoh5he.txt plain text: cord-190296-erpoh5he.txt item: #30 of 71 id: cord-190495-xpfbw7lo author: Molnar, Tamas G. title: Safety-Critical Control of Compartmental Epidemiological Models with Measurement Delays date: 2020-09-22 words: 4206 flesch: 58 summary: SIR model. key: cord-190495-xpfbw7lo authors: Molnar, Tamas G.; Singletary, Andrew W.; Orosz, Gabor; Ames, Aaron D. title: Safety-Critical Control of Compartmental Epidemiological Models with Measurement Delays date: 2020-09-22 journal: nan DOI: nan sha: doc_id: 190495 cord_uid: xpfbw7lo We introduce a methodology to guarantee safety against the spread of infectious diseases by viewing epidemiological models as control systems and by considering human interventions (such as quarantining or social distancing) as control input. keywords: compartments; control; covid-19; input; model; safety cache: cord-190495-xpfbw7lo.txt plain text: cord-190495-xpfbw7lo.txt item: #31 of 71 id: cord-191574-1g38scnj author: Harko, Tiberiu title: Series solution of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model with vital dynamics via the Adomian and Laplace-Adomian Decomposition Methods date: 2020-08-28 words: 3732 flesch: 41 summary: From SIR type models only the model without vital dynamics has an exact analytic solution, which can be obtained in an exact parametric form. Application to the SIR epidemic model Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Dynamics of COVID-19 and Economic Impact Inferring change points in the COVID-19 spreading reveals the effectiveness of interventions How to reduce epidemic peaks keeping under control the time-span of the epidemic Forecasting COVID 19 growth in India using Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 A feedback SIR (fSIR) model highlights advantages and limitations of infection-based social distancing Estimation of COVID-19 spread curves integrating global data and borrowing information Phenomenological dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic: meta-analysis for adjustment parameters On the Emergence of a Power Law in the Distribution of COVID-19 Cases Optimal control of an SIR epidemic through finite-time non-pharmaceutical intervention Understanding the COVID19 infection curves -finding the right numbers Exact analytical solutions of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model and of the SIR model with equal death and birth rates A Mathematical Model of Epidemics-A Tutorial for Students, Mathematics 2020 Variational iteration method for solving the epidemic model and the prey and predator problem Solution of the epidemic model by homotopy perturbation method A new method for solving epidemic model A review of the decomposition method in applied mathematics Solving Frontier Problems of Physics: the Decomposition Method A comparison between the variational iteration method and Adomian decomposition method Solving New Fourth-Order Emden-Fowler-Type Equations by the Adomian Decomposition Method A reliable algorithm for positive solutions of nonlinear boundary value problems by the multistage Adomian decomposition method Computation of the general relativistic perihelion precession and of light deflection via the Laplace-Adomian Decomposition Method Analytical and numerical treatment of Falkner-Skan equation via a transformation and Adomian's method Solving the nonlinear biharmonic equation by the Laplace-Adomian and Adomian Decomposition Methods, Surveys in Mathematics and its Applications Vortex solutions in atomic Bose-Einstein condensates via the Adomian Decomposition Method Solution of the epidemic model by Adomian decomposition method A simple computational approach to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model via the Laplace-Adomian Decomposition Method On the Integrability of the SIR Epidemic Model with Vital Dynamics keywords: adomian; decomposition; model; sir model cache: cord-191574-1g38scnj.txt plain text: cord-191574-1g38scnj.txt item: #32 of 71 id: cord-212912-t5v11gs0 author: Barwolff, Gunter title: Prospects and limits of SIR-type Mathematical Models to Capture the COVID-19 Pandemic date: 2020-04-13 words: 1962 flesch: 65 summary: Thus we can describe the early regime by the equation We are looking for periods in the spreadsheets of infected people per day where the course can be described by a function of type (4 We solved this non-linear minimum problem with the damped Gauss-Newton method (see [4] ). day log(number of infected people) keywords: lockdown; people; time cache: cord-212912-t5v11gs0.txt plain text: cord-212912-t5v11gs0.txt item: #33 of 71 id: cord-220116-6i7kg4mj author: Mukhamadiarov, Ruslan I. title: Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered models date: 2020-06-03 words: 4754 flesch: 37 summary: In this study, we implemented social distancing control measures for simple stochastic SIR epidemic models on regular square lattices with diffusive spreading, two-dimensional Newman-Watts small-world networks that include highly infective long-distance connections, and static contact networks, either with random connectivity or scale-free topology. For each setup, we investigated epidemic outbreaks with model parameters informed by the known COVID-19 data (4). keywords: disease; distancing; epidemic; figure; individuals; infection; lattice; network; rate cache: cord-220116-6i7kg4mj.txt plain text: cord-220116-6i7kg4mj.txt item: #34 of 71 id: cord-222193-0b4o0ccp author: Saakian, David B. title: A simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period date: 2020-04-13 words: 2072 flesch: 57 summary: Generally, epidemic models have a higher order of non-linearity than evolutionary models, although there are some similarities between these two classes. We use the proposed model to analyze COVID-19 epidemic data in Armenia. keywords: model; period; population cache: cord-222193-0b4o0ccp.txt plain text: cord-222193-0b4o0ccp.txt item: #35 of 71 id: cord-229937-fy90oebs author: Amaro, J. E. title: Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models date: 2020-05-14 words: 4909 flesch: 51 summary: Discussion: the Kermack-McKendrick epidemic threshold theorem Stability analysis of SIR model with vaccination Seasonality and the effectiveness of mass vaccination Application of SIR epidemiological model: new trends Epidemic disease in England -the evidence of variability and of persistency of type Report on the Prevention of Malaria in Mauritius An application of the theory of probabilities to the study of a priori pathometry. The Death and extended SIR models are simple enough to provide fast estimations of pandemic evolution by fitting spatial-time average parameters, and present a good first-order approximation to understand secondary effects during the pandemic, such as lockdown and population migrations, which may help to control the disease. keywords: d model; data; deaths; model; pandemic; parameters; sir; time cache: cord-229937-fy90oebs.txt plain text: cord-229937-fy90oebs.txt item: #36 of 71 id: cord-241596-vh90s8vi author: Libotte, Gustavo Barbosa title: Determination of an Optimal Control Strategy for Vaccine Administration in COVID-19 Pandemic Treatment date: 2020-04-15 words: 7213 flesch: 41 summary: Due to the favorable outcome of DE in solving mono-objective optimization problems, for different fields of science and engineering, Lobato and Steffen (2011) proposed the Multi-Objective Differential Evolution (MODE) algorithm to solve multi-objective optimization problems. The most common idea about multi-objective optimization found in the literature was originally proposed by Edgeworth (1881) and further generalized by Pareto (1896) . keywords: control; covid-19; individuals; model; number; objective; optimization; population; problem; time cache: cord-241596-vh90s8vi.txt plain text: cord-241596-vh90s8vi.txt item: #37 of 71 id: cord-243070-0b06zk1q author: Lesniewski, Andrew title: Epidemic control via stochastic optimal control date: 2020-04-14 words: 3793 flesch: 57 summary: Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I Dynamic Programming Time-optimal control strategies in SIR epidemic models Mathematical Models in Epidemiology Stochastic epidemic models: A survey Deterministic and stochastic models for recurrent epidemics Discrete Time Approximation and Monte-Carlo Simulation of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations, Stochastic Processes and their Applications A Scandal in Bohemia, (1891), included in The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes Backward stochastic differential equations in finance Controlled Markov processes and viscosity solutions A stochastic differential equation SIS epidemic model Geometric numerical integration illustrated by the StörmerVerlet method Optimal control of epidemics with limited resources Solving high-dimensional partial differential equations using deep learning A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics Stochastic Stability of Differential Equations Simulating Hamiltonian Dynamics Options on infectious diseases Managing counterparty credit risk via backward stochastic differential equations Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach Continuous-time Stochastic Control and Optimization with Financial Applications The Mathematical Theory of Optimal Processes Stochastic Controls: Hamiltonian Systems and HJB Equations This leads to the following system of stochastic differential equations (SDE), driven by W t with the initial conditions The third component of the process, X 3 = R, follows the dynamics which implies that the conservation law continues to hold in the stochastic model. keywords: following; function; model; stochastic cache: cord-243070-0b06zk1q.txt plain text: cord-243070-0b06zk1q.txt item: #38 of 71 id: cord-247144-crmfwjvf author: Bodova, Katarina title: Emerging Polynomial Growth Trends in COVID-19 Pandemic Data and Their Reconciliation with Compartment Based Models date: 2020-05-14 words: 6862 flesch: 48 summary: [18] use the PGED scaling on reported COVID-19 data and claim that public measures and social distancing enforced yield a fractal type contact network on which the epidemic transmission is strongly limited by the network topology. We conducted a systematic survey of COVID-19 pandemic data ([27], the last reporting day May 9, 2020) for all countries where the time series are sufficiently long to display a consistent trend (in total 118 countries). keywords: cases; countries; data; epidemic; growth; infected; model; number; phase; population cache: cord-247144-crmfwjvf.txt plain text: cord-247144-crmfwjvf.txt item: #39 of 71 id: cord-248050-apjwnwky author: Vrugt, Michael te title: Effects of social distancing and isolation on epidemic spreading: a dynamical density functional theory model date: 2020-03-31 words: 5115 flesch: 46 summary: This is crucial here as it allows to model effects of social distancing and selfisolation via a repulsive potential between the different persons. Figure 2 shows the time evolution of the total numbers S(t), I(t), and R(t) of susceptible, infected, and recovered persons, respectively, for the cases without interactions (usual SIR model with diffusion) and with interactions (our model). keywords: ddft; density; diffusion; disease; distancing; interactions; model; persons; sir; theory cache: cord-248050-apjwnwky.txt plain text: cord-248050-apjwnwky.txt item: #40 of 71 id: cord-253461-o63ru7nr author: Tewari, A. title: Temporal Analysis of COVID-19 Peak Outbreak date: 2020-09-13 words: 1781 flesch: 45 summary: With this in mind, SIR model is explored in current research to forecast peak COVID-19 outbreak over a large population in India. This research was conducted to evaluate the feasibility of application of SIR model to predict peak COVID-19 outbreak timeline from the date of first reported case for the 10 largest states in India which together constitute more than 74% or almost 3/4 th of total population in India. keywords: covid-19; india; model; peak; population cache: cord-253461-o63ru7nr.txt plain text: cord-253461-o63ru7nr.txt item: #41 of 71 id: cord-258018-29vtxz89 author: Cooper, Ian title: A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities date: 2020-06-28 words: 5817 flesch: 52 summary: The Lancet infectious diseases Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France A data-driven network model for the emerging COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan, Toronto and Italy Estimation of COVID-19 dynamics on a back-of-envelope: Does the simplest SIR model provide quantitative parameters and predictions Modeling the impact of mass influenza vaccination and public health interventions on COVID-19 epidemics with limited detection capability Three basic epidemiological models The mathematics of infectious diseases The basic epidemiology models: models, expressions for R0, parameter estimation, and applications The SIR model and the foundations of public health Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models A modified sir model for the covid-19 contagion in Italy Mathematical modeling of covid-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of wuhan Mod-370 elling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy The effectiveness of quarantine of Wuhan city against the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID19): A wellmixed SEIR model analysis ), e0230405. System (1) can be solved numerically to find how the scaled (by f ) susceptible S, infected I and removed R m populations (what we call model solutions) evolve with time, in good agreement with the recorded data. keywords: covid-19; data; model; number; population; sir; sir model; susceptible cache: cord-258018-29vtxz89.txt plain text: cord-258018-29vtxz89.txt item: #42 of 71 id: cord-264248-wqkphg2e author: Hazem, Y. title: Hasty Reduction of COVID-19 Lockdown Measures Leads to the Second Wave of Infection date: 2020-05-26 words: 2266 flesch: 48 summary: The results showed an inevitable second wave of COVID-19 infection following loosening the current measures. Hence, it is important to understand the consequences of easing lockdown measures and refreshing the economy. keywords: covid-19; infection; measures; preprint cache: cord-264248-wqkphg2e.txt plain text: cord-264248-wqkphg2e.txt item: #43 of 71 id: cord-270519-orh8fd1c author: Oliveira, A. C. S. d. title: Bayesian modeling of COVID-19 cases with a correction to account for under-reported cases date: 2020-05-25 words: 4265 flesch: 50 summary: key: cord-270519-orh8fd1c authors: Oliveira, A. C. S. d.; Morita, L. H. M.; da Silva, E. B.; Granzotto, D. C. T.; Zardo, L. A. R.; Fontes, C. J. F. title: Bayesian modeling of COVID-19 cases with a correction to account for under-reported cases date: 2020-05-25 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.24.20112029 sha: doc_id: 270519 cord_uid: orh8fd1c The novel of COVID-19 disease started in late 2019 making the worldwide governments came across a high number of critical and death cases, beyond constant fear of the collapse in their health systems. To address these issues, we introduce a Bayesian approach to the SIR model with correction for under-reporting in the analysis of COVID-19 cases in Brazil. keywords: brazil; cases; covid-19; disease; license; medrxiv; model; preprint; rate; reporting cache: cord-270519-orh8fd1c.txt plain text: cord-270519-orh8fd1c.txt item: #44 of 71 id: cord-273429-dl6z8x9h author: Dandekar, R. title: A machine learning aided global diagnostic and comparative tool to assess effect of quarantine control in Covid-19 spread date: 2020-07-24 words: 5176 flesch: 46 summary: This matches the on-ground situation as indicated by a generally strong correlation is seen between the red circles in our study (states with lower quarantine efficiency) and the yellow regions seen in in the Wall Street Journal report 41 (states with reduced imposition of restrictions) and between the blue circles in our study (states with higher quarantine efficiency) and the blue regions seen in the Wall Street Journal report 41 (states with generally higher level of restrictions). [27] [28] Thus, a neural network solution is attractive to approximate quarantine effects in combination with analytical epidemiological models. keywords: countries; covid-19; data; figure; model; population; quarantine; rate; spread; states cache: cord-273429-dl6z8x9h.txt plain text: cord-273429-dl6z8x9h.txt item: #45 of 71 id: cord-277094-2ycmxcuz author: Ifguis, Ousama title: Simulation of the Final Size of the Evolution Curve of Coronavirus Epidemic in Morocco using the SIR Model date: 2020-06-02 words: 1223 flesch: 50 summary: Also, as the number of infected cases is increasing, it is necessary for modellers to estimate the severity of the epidemic in terms of the total number of people infected, the total number of confirmed cases, the total number of deaths, and basic reproduction and to predict the duration of the epidemic, the arrival of its peak, and its final size. Figure 3 , based on optimal SIR models, shows that the start of acceleration of the epidemic is around 21 March 2020, the regular growth will begin on 8 April 2020, and the end of the epidemic in Morocco would be around 26 April 2020, with a total of 1,446 infected cases and 366 final number of susceptible cases (Table 2 ). keywords: cases; model; number cache: cord-277094-2ycmxcuz.txt plain text: cord-277094-2ycmxcuz.txt item: #46 of 71 id: cord-279112-ajdkasah author: Rojas, S. title: Comment on “Estimation of COVID-19 dynamics “on a back-of-envelope”: Does the simplest SIR model provide quantitative parameters and predictions?” date: 2020-09-13 words: 1846 flesch: 47 summary: Thus, the dynamics of the disease, introduced in 1927 by Kermack and McKendrick [2] , is modeled by the set of differential equations: In these equations, the parameters β (the infection rate) and γ (the recovery or removal rate of infectives) are constants: β controls the transition between S and I, equation (1), while γ controls the transition between I and R, equation (3). Then, by a standard Figure 1 : The graph shows the KM approximation R(t) given in equation (7) (with fitting parameters shown in Table 1 , according to equation (11) ) and the full numerical solution of the SIR epidemiological model defined by equations (1)-(3) (with integration parameters compiled in Table 2 ), both with reasonable estimated absolute and relative rmse values are observed to adjust reported cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases for a number of countries. keywords: equation; model; sir cache: cord-279112-ajdkasah.txt plain text: cord-279112-ajdkasah.txt item: #47 of 71 id: cord-280683-5572l6bo author: Liu, Laura title: Panel forecasts of country-level Covid-19 infections() date: 2020-10-16 words: 7198 flesch: 56 summary: Our model could be generalized by adding additional knots in the deterministic trend component of infection growth rates, but the extension is not pursued in this paper. We specify a panel data model for infection growth rates y keywords: data; density; distribution; forecasts; growth; infections; locations; model; panel; time cache: cord-280683-5572l6bo.txt plain text: cord-280683-5572l6bo.txt item: #48 of 71 id: cord-288884-itviia7v author: Chandra, Vedant title: Stochastic Compartmental Modelling of SARS-CoV-2 with Approximate Bayesian Computation date: 2020-04-01 words: 1557 flesch: 56 summary: In this proof-of-concept study, we apply approximate Bayesian computation to fit stochastic epidemic models to real world data. The general goal of ABC is to sample the posterior distributions of simulation parameters such that the simulations match the observed data. keywords: model; parameters cache: cord-288884-itviia7v.txt plain text: cord-288884-itviia7v.txt item: #49 of 71 id: cord-289325-jhokn5bu author: Lachiany, Menachem title: Effects of distribution of infection rate on epidemic models date: 2016-08-11 words: 6824 flesch: 53 summary: We propose here that the estimate of the change in the relative infection rate defined as I /I can be a good way to estimate the steady-state number of infected individuals in SIS models, and the total number of removed individuals in SIR models. key: cord-289325-jhokn5bu authors: Lachiany, Menachem; Louzoun, Yoram title: Effects of distribution of infection rate on epidemic models date: 2016-08-11 journal: Phys Rev E DOI: 10.1103/physreve.94.022409 sha: doc_id: 289325 cord_uid: jhokn5bu A goal of many epidemic models is to compute the outcome of the epidemics from the observed infected early dynamics. keywords: distribution; dynamics; epidemics; individuals; model; number; sir cache: cord-289325-jhokn5bu.txt plain text: cord-289325-jhokn5bu.txt item: #50 of 71 id: cord-293148-t2dk2syq author: Nadini, Matthieu title: A multi-agent model to study epidemic spreading and vaccination strategies in an urban-like environment date: 2020-09-22 words: 12287 flesch: 49 summary: Agents that exit their base location are likely to jump inside another location and interact with other agents occupying a different portion of the urban environment. In Random, we select the fraction of agents to vaccinate at random; in Center, we vaccinate first the agents that are assigned to central base locations, while in Peripheral, we prioritize vaccination for agents that belongs to the peripheral agents. keywords: agents; base location; epidemic; et al; fig; location; model; probability; time cache: cord-293148-t2dk2syq.txt plain text: cord-293148-t2dk2syq.txt item: #51 of 71 id: cord-297161-ziwfr9dv author: Sauter, T. title: TESTING INFORMED SIR BASED EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL FOR COVID-19 IN LUXEMBOURG date: 2020-07-25 words: 2247 flesch: 43 summary: Notably, SIR models captured a link between the transmission rate β and the case-infection ratio that was missed by SEIR models. The underestimation of the Infected, Deaths, and Removed, due to not considering country specific testing information, causes SIR models to predict IFR and effective reproduction number (Rt_eff ) values that vary drastically across countries with different testing and might often be overestimated. keywords: cases; lockdown; model; number cache: cord-297161-ziwfr9dv.txt plain text: cord-297161-ziwfr9dv.txt item: #52 of 71 id: cord-303030-8unrcb1f author: Gaeta, Giuseppe title: Social distancing versus early detection and contacts tracing in epidemic management date: 2020-07-16 words: 11352 flesch: 52 summary: SIAM ArXiv: 2003.02062 ; Data Analysis for the COVID-19 early dynamics in Northern Italy A simple SIR model with a large set of asymptomatic infectives A simple SIR model with a large set of asymptomatic infectives How to reduce epidemic peaks keeping under control the time-span of the epidemic Accurate closed-form solution of the SIR epidemic model Asymptomatic transmission, the achilles heel of current strategies to control covid-19 (Editorial) Presumed asymptomatic carrier transmission of COVID-19 Pre-and asymptomatic individuals contribute up to 80% of COVID-19 transmission Evidence supporting transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 while presymptomatic or asymptomatic Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 The rate of underascertainment of novel coronavirus (2019-ncov) infection: estimation using japanese passengers data on evacuation flights Estimation of the asymptomatic ratio of novel coronavirus infections (COVID-19) Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the diamond princess cruise ship Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-cov2) We have considered epidemic dynamics as described by mean field models of the SIR type; more specifically, we have first considered the classical Kermack-McKendrick SIR model [1] [2] keywords: asymptomatic; contacts; covid; data; epidemic; infectives; model; sir; time cache: cord-303030-8unrcb1f.txt plain text: cord-303030-8unrcb1f.txt item: #53 of 71 id: cord-310863-jxbw8wl2 author: PRASAD, J. title: A data first approach to modelling Covid-19 date: 2020-05-26 words: 7181 flesch: 59 summary: In figure (9) we show the reconstruction for β(t), γ(t) and R(t)for Italy with SIR model and in figure (10) the same is shown for β(t), γ(t) and δ(t) in case of SIRD model. From Figure (5) we can conclude that different models can lead to the same amounts of flattening of the curve with a different choice of parameters so there is no preferred model for the suppression. keywords: author; covid-19; data; medrxiv; model; perpetuity; preprint; time cache: cord-310863-jxbw8wl2.txt plain text: cord-310863-jxbw8wl2.txt item: #54 of 71 id: cord-311183-5blzw9oy author: Malavika, B. title: Forecasting COVID-19 epidemic in India and high incidence states using SIR and logistic growth models date: 2020-06-27 words: 2735 flesch: 50 summary: We forecasted the number of cumulative cases for India and four other high incidence states using logistic growth model which has projected the cumulative cases very closely to the observed cases. As in any other projection using models, the limitation is that each model would behave differently, not merely due to differences in underlying assumptions but differences in population density, existing capacity of the health systems, current level of interventions and socio-demographic and economic situation across and within the states and districts. keywords: cases; growth; india; model; number cache: cord-311183-5blzw9oy.txt plain text: cord-311183-5blzw9oy.txt item: #55 of 71 id: cord-314725-og0ybfzf author: Marinov, Tchavdar T. title: Dynamics of COVID-19 Using Inverse Problem for Coefficient Identification in SIR Epidemic Models date: 2020-07-15 words: 4764 flesch: 59 summary: A deterministic model for highly contagious diseases: The case of varicella Classical and Modern Numerical Analysis: Theory, Methods and Practice, Chapman & Hall/CRC Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing Infectious diseases of humans Numerical modeling and theoretical analysis of a nonlinear advection-reaction epidemic system Interepidemic Intervals in Forced and Unforced SEIR models Modelling Mathematical Methods and Scientific Computation An attempt at a new analysis of the mortality caused by smallpox and of the advantages of inoculation to prevent it Identification of heat-conduction coefficient via method of variational imbedding A note on the existence and stability of an inverse problem for a SIS model Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare Qualitative study of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with information intervention The mathematics of infectious diseases Analysis of SIR epidemic model with information spreading of awareness A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics Risk estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory disease outbreak outside China Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study Global stability of a network-based SIRS epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate Dynamical behavior of a stochastic multigroup SIR epidemic model Novel numerical approach to solitary-wave solutions identification of Boussinesq and Korteweg-de Vries equations Coefficient Identification in Euler-Bernoulli Equation from over-posed data Inverse problem for coefficient identification in SIR epidemic models, Computers and Mathematics with Applications Coefficient identification in elliptic partial differential equation Inverse Problem for Coefficient Identification in Euler-Bernoulli Equation Clinical determinants of the severity of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS): a systematic review and meta-analysis Mathematical biology. Mathematical modeling and forecasting the spread of epidemic diseases has a long history, see [3] , [5] , [10] , and [31] . keywords: covid-19; problem; rate; time cache: cord-314725-og0ybfzf.txt plain text: cord-314725-og0ybfzf.txt item: #56 of 71 id: cord-316393-ozl28ztz author: Enrique Amaro, José title: Global analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using simple epidemiological models date: 2020-10-22 words: 5299 flesch: 51 summary: Discussion: the Kermack-McKendrick epidemic threshold theorem Stability analysis of SIR model with vaccination Seasonality and the effectiveness of mass vaccination Application of SIR epidemiological model: new trends Epidemic disease in England -the evidence of variability and of persistency of type Report on the Prevention of Malaria in Mauritius An application of the theory of probabilities to the study of a priori pathometry. Similar models are available keywords: d model; data; deaths; model; pandemic; parameters; sir; time cache: cord-316393-ozl28ztz.txt plain text: cord-316393-ozl28ztz.txt item: #57 of 71 id: cord-318525-nc5rtwtd author: Smeets, Bart title: Scaling analysis of COVID-19 spreading based on Belgian hospitalization data date: 2020-03-30 words: 2603 flesch: 50 summary: Data is obtained from publicly available numbers on current hospitalization (H), current number of ICU patients (ICU ), accumulated number of deaths (D) and number of individuals released from the hospital (R). Extrapolation with these parameters predicts a peak in number of ICU patients around April 15th, with the number of ICU patients exceeding the capacity of the Belgian healthcare system of 2650 beds. keywords: icu; model; number; sir cache: cord-318525-nc5rtwtd.txt plain text: cord-318525-nc5rtwtd.txt item: #58 of 71 id: cord-318688-ditadt8l author: Mitarai, O. title: Suppression of COVID-19 infection by isolation time control based on the SIR model and an analogy from nuclear fusion research date: 2020-09-20 words: 5908 flesch: 62 summary: key: cord-318688-ditadt8l authors: Mitarai, O.; Yanagi, N. title: Suppression of COVID-19 infection by isolation time control based on the SIR model and an analogy from nuclear fusion research date: 2020-09-20 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2020.09.18.20197723 sha: doc_id: 318688 cord_uid: ditadt8l The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been damaging our daily life after declaration of pandemic. Required isolation time to terminate the COVID-19 can be estimated by this proposed method. keywords: infected; isolation; number; outing; outing restriction; ratio; restriction; time cache: cord-318688-ditadt8l.txt plain text: cord-318688-ditadt8l.txt item: #59 of 71 id: cord-319435-le2eifv8 author: Rahman, Mohammad Mahmudur title: Impact of control strategies on COVID-19 pandemic and the SIR model based forecasting in Bangladesh. date: 2020-04-23 words: 4910 flesch: 54 summary: The prediction results are illustrated in Figure 05 and tabulated in the third column in Table 01 confirmed that by social distancing, COVID-19 infection cases can be controlled and reduced as well as the ending of the outbreak will be rapid. [6] , may help to keep infection number low.. keywords: bangladesh; cases; covid-19; infection; model; number; sir cache: cord-319435-le2eifv8.txt plain text: cord-319435-le2eifv8.txt item: #60 of 71 id: cord-320912-jfeu4tho author: Fukui, M. title: Power Laws in Superspreading Events: Evidence from Coronavirus Outbreaks and Implications for SIR Models date: 2020-06-12 words: 11778 flesch: 55 summary: We then extend an otherwise standard SIR model with estimated power law distributions, and show that idiosyncratic uncertainties in SSEs will lead to large aggregate uncertainties in infection dynamics, even with large populations. Under thin-tailed distributions, such as the estimated negative binomial distribution or power law distribution with α = 2, the epidemiological outcomes will be essentially predictable. keywords: data; distribution; infection; law; mean; power; preprint; sses cache: cord-320912-jfeu4tho.txt plain text: cord-320912-jfeu4tho.txt item: #61 of 71 id: cord-321984-qjfkvu6n author: Tang, Lu title: A Review of Multi‐Compartment Infectious Disease Models date: 2020-08-03 words: 21860 flesch: 43 summary: Building sampling variations in infectious disease models makes a statistical modelling approach different from a mathematical modelling approach. Hence, statistical extensions are necessary to incorporate sampling uncertainty in estimation and inference for infectious disease models. keywords: .t/; analysis; compartment; covid-19; data; disease; dynamics; e.g.; epidemic; estimation; example; function; individuals; infection; model; modelling; number; population; prediction; rate; section; sir model; state; surveillance; system; time; time t; transmission cache: cord-321984-qjfkvu6n.txt plain text: cord-321984-qjfkvu6n.txt item: #62 of 71 id: cord-324993-hs66uf1u author: Adwibowo, A. title: Flattening the COVID 19 curve in susceptible forest indigenous tribes using SIR model date: 2020-05-25 words: 3255 flesch: 49 summary: Using the Susceptible Infectious Recovered (SIR) model, the spread of the COVID 19 under 3 intervention scenarios (low, moderate, high) is simulated and predicted in indigenous tribe populations. The COVID 19 SIR model of indigenous tribe populations living in remote Yasuni rainforest enclaves with simulated 25% (low), 50% (moderate), and 75% (high) interventions (x axis: days, y axis: proportion of total population). . keywords: cases; covid; model; population; preprint; sir cache: cord-324993-hs66uf1u.txt plain text: cord-324993-hs66uf1u.txt item: #63 of 71 id: cord-326631-7gd3hjc3 author: Ma, Junling title: Generality of the Final Size Formula for an Epidemic of a Newly Invading Infectious Disease date: 2006-04-08 words: 7390 flesch: 58 summary: However, noting that the exposed stage can be regarded as an infectious stage during which the transmission rate happens to be zero, we lose no generality by restricting attention to multiple infectious stage models, which we refer to as SI n R models if there are n infectious stages. With the assumption that q = 1 − e −R0 , Von Bahr and Martin-Lof (1980) and Scalia-Tomba (1985) showed that final size distribution for the traditional chain binomial model is asymptotically normal in the limit of large population size. keywords: formula; individuals; model; rate; size; stage; transmission cache: cord-326631-7gd3hjc3.txt plain text: cord-326631-7gd3hjc3.txt item: #64 of 71 id: cord-332922-2qjae0x7 author: Mbuvha, Rendani title: Bayesian inference of COVID-19 spreading rates in South Africa date: 2020-08-05 words: 3225 flesch: 48 summary: We follow the framework of [6] to perform Bayesian inference for model parameters on the South African COVID-19 data. The posterior inference is governed by Bayes theorem as follows: Where P(W|D, M) is the posterior distribution of a vector of model parameters (W) given the model(M) and observed data(D), P(D|W, M) is the data likelihood and P(D) is the evidence. keywords: change; data; inference; model; seir; sir; trajectory cache: cord-332922-2qjae0x7.txt plain text: cord-332922-2qjae0x7.txt item: #65 of 71 id: cord-335141-ag3j8obh author: Higgins, G.C. title: FFP3 reusable respirators for COVID-19; adequate and suitable in the healthcare setting date: 2020-06-30 words: 22066 flesch: 48 summary: When asked Would you think other patients would like to have a similar AR leaflet before surgery and Would you like to see further AR leaflets to be developed in the future? In addition to those directly working in the respiratory, infectious, cardiology, nephrology, psychology, and ICU departments and COVID-19 patients, all members of the general population may encounter the new coronavirus. keywords: article; authors; care; clinic; covid-19; data; face; flap; free; hand; health; hospital; information; lymphedema; lymphorrhea; nhs; pandemic; patients; plastic; plastic surgery; practice; publication; reconstruction; risk; scar; service; skin; social; staff; study; surgeons; surgery; therapy; time; trainees; training; trauma; treatment; use; wound cache: cord-335141-ag3j8obh.txt plain text: cord-335141-ag3j8obh.txt item: #66 of 71 id: cord-339425-hdf3blpu author: Ahmetolan, Semra title: What Can We Estimate From Fatality and Infectious Case Data Using the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) Model? A Case Study of Covid-19 Pandemic date: 2020-09-03 words: 5808 flesch: 56 summary: medRxiv Qualitative analyses of communicable disease models On the uniqueness of epidemic models fitting a normalized curve of removed individuals Modelling the epidemic trend of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China. medRxiv Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus Samanlioglu F, Bilge AH, Ergonul O. A susceptible-exposed-infectedremoved (SEIR) model for the 2009-2010 A/H1N1 epidemic in Istanbul On the time shift phenomena in epidemic models Determination of epidemic parameters from early phase fatality data: a case study of the 2009 A (H1N1) pandemic in Europe The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. keywords: cases; covid-19; data; epidemic; model; number ℜ; parameters ℜ cache: cord-339425-hdf3blpu.txt plain text: cord-339425-hdf3blpu.txt item: #67 of 71 id: cord-339789-151d1j4n author: Hong, Hyokyoung G. title: Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers underlying epidemiological processes: A new statistical tool for the COVID-19 pandemic date: 2020-07-21 words: 3939 flesch: 53 summary: bðtÞg À 1 ðtÞ < 1 leads to that i(t + 1) < i(t) or the number of infectious cases drops, meaning the spread of virus is controlled; otherwise, the number of infectious cases will keep increasing. We note that (9) is directly based on true numbers of infectious cases and removed cases derived from the discrete SIR model (6) . keywords: cases; countries; covid-19; data; model; number; time cache: cord-339789-151d1j4n.txt plain text: cord-339789-151d1j4n.txt item: #68 of 71 id: cord-342855-dvgqouk2 author: Anzum, R. title: Mathematical Modeling of Coronavirus Reproduction Rate with Policy and Behavioral Effects date: 2020-06-18 words: 3087 flesch: 51 summary: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.16.20133330 doi: medRxiv preprint sectors by exploring compartmental models along with standard economic models using econometric techniques. The model estimates the vulnerability of the pandemic with a prediction of new cases by estimating a time-varying R0 to capture changes in the behavior of SIR model implies to new policy taken at different times and different locations of the world. keywords: coronavirus; license; model; people; preprint; rate cache: cord-342855-dvgqouk2.txt plain text: cord-342855-dvgqouk2.txt item: #69 of 71 id: cord-346951-kvh9qt65 author: KUMAR, SUNNY title: Predication of Pandemic COVID-19 situation in Maharashtra, India date: 2020-04-11 words: 1071 flesch: 58 summary: The reproduction ratio is varied from 1.33 to 5 where infected population was increased in the high reproductive ratio. When susceptible are high than infected people will be more as shown in Figure 4 (c)-(d) and corresponding infected people at different reproduction ratio. keywords: population; virus cache: cord-346951-kvh9qt65.txt plain text: cord-346951-kvh9qt65.txt item: #70 of 71 id: cord-349898-nvi8h77t author: Dinh, Ly title: COVID‐19 pandemic and information diffusion analysis on Twitter date: 2020-10-22 words: 4779 flesch: 48 summary: In light of diverse findings on the extent to which SIR models can explain information diffusion on social networks, we examine whether there are similarities in our simulated SIR model (SIRsim), observed SIR model based on actual COVID-19 cases (SIRemp), and observed information cascades on Twitter about the virus (INFOcas). In the context of social networks, information diffusion is formally defined as a process by which a piece of information is passed down from one node to another node through an edge (Gruhl, Guha, Liben-Nowell, & Tomkins, 2004; Guille, Hacid, Favre, & Zighed, 2013) . keywords: cascades; cases; covid-19; diffusion; information; model; sir; tweets; virus cache: cord-349898-nvi8h77t.txt plain text: cord-349898-nvi8h77t.txt item: #71 of 71 id: cord-354627-y07w2f43 author: pinter, g. title: COVID-19 Pandemic Prediction for Hungary; a Hybrid Machine Learning Approach date: 2020-05-06 words: 5485 flesch: 45 summary: As an alternative to the SIR-based models, this study proposed machine learning as a new trend in advancing outbreak models. Outbreak prediction models have shown to be essential to communicate insights into the likely spread and consequences of COVID-19. keywords: algorithm; covid-19; data; learning; license; machine; models; outbreak; prediction; preprint; sir; time cache: cord-354627-y07w2f43.txt plain text: cord-354627-y07w2f43.txt