








key: cord-346951-kvh9qt65
authors: KUMAR, SUNNY
title: Predication of Pandemic COVID-19 situation in Maharashtra, India
date: 2020-04-11
journal: nan
DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.10.20056697
sha: 
doc_id: 346951
cord_uid: kvh9qt65

Presently, the world is infected by COVID 19 virus which has created an emergency public health. For controlling the spreading of the virus, we have to prepare for precaution and futuristic calculation for infection spreading. The coronavirus affects the population of the world including Inia. Here, we are the study the virus spreading rate on the Maharashtra state which is part of India. We are predicting the infected people by the SIR model. SIR model is one of the most effective models which can predict the spreading rate of the virus. We have validated the model with the current spreading rate with this SIR model. This study will help to stop the epidemic spreading because it is in the early stage in the Maharashtra region.

A virus [1] is micro/nano meter in size which is reproduced inside the living cell of an organism.

Presently coronavirus is created a health emergency to the world population and became a pandemic [2] , [3] , [4] . Initially, this virus is transferred from the bat animal to the human [5] .

Further this virus shows the human to human transmission [6] . COVID 19 virus is spreading to the people by the respiratory droplets and contact mode [7] . Previously there are several mathematical models reported [8] . The SIR model is simple and effective model which can give the prediction of different pandemic situation [9] .

Here, we are studying the spreading effects of the COVID19 to the Maharashtra state. There are 28 states in India in which Maharashtra is one of them. This state has a total population of 11.42 crore which is ~8.5 % of the overall population of India. The first case was observed 9 march 2020 in Maharashtra [10] where the couple was returned from Dubai. In India, the first case was observed on 30 January 2020 [11] . At 12 march, world health organization (WHO) announce that COVID 19 is outbreak of pandemic where the term used by disease experts when epidemics are growing in multiple countries and continents at the same time [12] . In current situation, after 12 march corona virus cases are rapidly increase in India and there are several cases also observed in the Maharashtra. This study explains the epidemic growth by using SIR Model for this state which helps to control this epidemic.

. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The ratio of the infected ratio and recovery ration is known as reproduction ratio (R) .

In the results and discussion section, the present rate of the virus infection is studied. The infected population is also predicted by the SIR model. The reproduction ratio parameter also explained for the spreading rate of the virus. Where I represent the infected people and t represents the days.

The undercover area is covered by the black line which follows the equation 1. After that, if we plot the graph up to the 15 April then the infected population will be ~3500. This predication is followed a similar tend when there is no recovery and death of the population. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.10.20056697 doi: medRxiv preprint certain peak. After certain period, the infected population are decreases. The blue line shows the recovery or death of the population which is increasing by time. Image 4 (b) shows the reproduction ratio (R) effects to the infected people. The reproduction ratio is varied from 1.33 to 5 where infected population was increased in the high reproductive ratio. When susceptible are high than infected people will be more as shown in Figure 4 (c)-(d) and corresponding infected people at different reproduction ratio. During the lockdown, people will make the proper social distancing which will reduce the spreading of infection. 

The study explains the spreading of COVID 19 in the Maharashtra region which is part of India. In this particular region, the effect of the virus is studied by the SIR model. The model predicted that the maximum infected population will be almost ~ 3000 after 40 days at the peak point. After reaching the peak point the recovery will be more and the virus infection will be high for R ~ 2.66. This study is considered only 7000 population are migrating in the state which can be affected in the lockdown condition. If the migrated population will increase which causes the increment of infection and infect the population more. This can control by the lockdown situation only which is presently imposed by the Governments to the people. There should be a global health community that unites to urgently avoid the pandemic issues.

. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04. 10.20056697 doi: medRxiv preprint 

The ancient Virus World and evolution of cells

The Lessons of the Pandemic

A review of the 1918 herald pandemic wave: importance for contemporary pandemic response strategies

A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence

A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster

Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks

The mathematical theory of infectious diseases and its applications

Forecasting seasonal influenza with a state-space SIR model

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

The ethical approval or individual consent was not applicable.

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04. 10.20056697 doi: medRxiv preprint 

