id	sid	tid	token	lemma	pos
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	1	key	key	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	2	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	3	cord-280683	cord-280683	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	4	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	5	5572l6bo	5572l6bo	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	6	authors	author	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	7	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	8	liu	liu	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	10	laura	laura	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	11	;	;	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	12	moon	moon	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	13	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	14	hyungsik	hyungsik	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	15	roger	roger	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	16	;	;	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	17	schorfheide	schorfheide	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	18	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	19	frank	frank	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	20	title	title	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	21	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	22	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	23	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	24	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	25	country	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	26	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	27	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	28	covid-19	covid-19	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	29	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	30	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	31	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	32	date	date	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	33	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	34	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	35	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	36	10	10	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	37	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	38	16	16	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	39	journal	journal	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	40	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	41	j	j	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	42	econom	econom	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	43	doi	doi	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	44	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	45	10.1016	10.1016	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	46	/	/	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	1	47	j.jeconom.2020.08.010	j.jeconom.2020.08.010	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	2	1	sha	shall	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	2	2	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	1	doc_id	doc_id	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	2	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	3	280683	280683	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	4	cord_uid	cord_uid	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	5	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	6	5572l6bo	5572l6bo	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	7	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	8	use	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	9	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	10	dynamic	dynamic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	11	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	12	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	13	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	14	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	15	generate	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	16	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	17	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	18	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	19	daily	daily	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	20	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	21	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	22	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	23	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	24	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	25	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	26	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	27	countries	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	28	/	/	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	29	regions	region	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	3	30	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	1	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	2	specification	specification	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	3	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	4	assumes	assume	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	6	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	7	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	8	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	9	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	10	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	11	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	12	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	13	represented	represent	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	14	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	15	autoregressive	autoregressive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	16	fluctuations	fluctuation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	17	around	around	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	18	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	19	downward	downward	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	20	sloping	sloping	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	21	deterministic	deterministic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	22	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	23	function	function	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	24	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	25	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	26	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	4	27	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	1	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	2	fully	fully	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	3	bayesian	bayesian	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	4	approach	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	5	allows	allow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	6	us	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	7	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	8	flexibly	flexibly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	9	estimate	estimate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	10	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	11	cross	cross	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	12	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	13	sectional	sectional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	14	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	15	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	16	slopes	slope	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	17	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	18	then	then	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	19	implicitly	implicitly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	20	use	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	21	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	22	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	23	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	24	prior	prior	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	25	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	26	construct	construct	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	27	bayes	bayes	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	28	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	29	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	30	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	31	individual	individual	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	32	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	33	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	5	34	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	2	find	find	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	3	some	some	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	4	evidence	evidence	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	5	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	6	information	information	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	7	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	8	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	9	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	10	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	11	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	12	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	13	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	14	sharpen	sharpen	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	15	forecast	forecast	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	16	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	17	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	18	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	19	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	6	20	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	1	there	there	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	2	is	be	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	3	generally	generally	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	4	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	5	lot	lot	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	6	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	7	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	8	about	about	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	10	evolution	evolution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	11	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	12	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	13	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	14	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	15	due	due	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	16	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	17	parameter	parameter	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	18	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	19	shock	shock	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	20	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	21	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	22	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	23	particular	particular	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	24	before	before	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	25	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	26	around	around	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	27	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	28	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	29	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	30	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	31	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	32	path	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	7	33	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	1	over	over	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	2	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	3	one	one	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	4	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	5	week	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	6	horizon	horizon	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	7	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	9	empirical	empirical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	10	coverage	coverage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	11	frequency	frequency	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	12	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	13	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	14	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	15	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	16	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	17	close	close	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	18	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	19	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	20	nominal	nominal	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	21	credible	credible	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	22	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	8	23	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	1	weekly	weekly	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	2	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	3	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	4	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	5	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	6	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	7	published	publish	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	8	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	9	https://laurayuliu.com/covid19-panel-forecast/.	https://laurayuliu.com/covid19-panel-forecast/.	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	10	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	11	paper	paper	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	12	contributes	contribute	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	13	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	15	rapidly	rapidly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	16	growing	grow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	17	literature	literature	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	18	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	19	generating	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	20	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	21	related	relate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	22	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	23	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	24	current	current	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	25	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	26	pandemic	pandemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	9	27	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	2	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	3	adapting	adapt	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	4	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	5	techniques	technique	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	6	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	7	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	8	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	9	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	10	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	11	have	have	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	12	recently	recently	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	13	developed	develop	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	14	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	15	economic	economic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	16	applications	application	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	17	such	such	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	18	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	19	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	20	prediction	prediction	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	21	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	22	bank	bank	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	23	profits	profit	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	24	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	25	charge	charge	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	26	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	27	off	off	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	28	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	29	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	30	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	31	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	32	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	33	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	34	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	35	terms	term	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	36	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	37	employment	employment	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	38	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	39	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	40	young	young	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	41	firms	firm	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	42	;	;	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	43	see	see	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	44	liu	liu	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	45	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	46	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	47	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	48	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	49	liu	liu	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	50	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	51	moon	moon	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	52	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	53	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	54	schorfheide	schorfheide	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	55	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	56	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	57	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	58	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	59	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	60	liu	liu	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	61	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	62	moon	moon	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	63	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	64	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	65	schorfheide	schorfheide	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	66	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	67	2019	2019	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	68	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	10	69	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	2	focus	focus	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	3	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	5	prediction	prediction	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	6	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	8	smoothed	smoothed	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	9	daily	daily	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	10	number	number	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	11	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	12	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	13	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	14	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	15	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	16	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	17	crosssection	crosssection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	18	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	19	approximately	approximately	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	20	one	one	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	21	hundred	hundred	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	22	countries	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	23	/	/	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	24	regions	region	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	25	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	26	henceforth	henceforth	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	27	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	11	28	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	2	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	3	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	4	obtained	obtain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	5	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	7	center	center	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	8	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	9	systems	system	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	10	science	science	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	11	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	12	engineering	engineering	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	13	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	14	csse	csse	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	15	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	16	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	17	johns	johns	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	18	hopkins	hopkins	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	19	university	university	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	12	20	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	1	while	while	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	2	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	3	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	4	currently	currently	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	5	focusing	focus	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	6	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	7	country	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	8	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	9	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	10	aggregates	aggregate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	11	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	12	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	13	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	14	could	could	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	15	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	16	easily	easily	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	17	modified	modify	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	18	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	19	accommodate	accommodate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	20	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	21	say	say	INTJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	22	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	23	state	state	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	24	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	25	or	or	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	26	county	county	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	27	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	28	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	29	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	13	30	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	2	economics	economic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	3	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	4	researchers	researcher	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	5	distinguish	distinguish	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	6	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	7	broadly	broadly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	8	speaking	speak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	10	between	between	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	11	reduced	reduce	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	12	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	13	form	form	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	14	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	15	structural	structural	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	16	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	14	17	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	1	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	2	reduced	reduce	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	3	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	4	form	form	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	5	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	6	summarizes	summarize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	7	spatial	spatial	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	8	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	9	temporal	temporal	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	10	correlation	correlation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	11	structures	structure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	12	among	among	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	13	economic	economic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	14	variables	variable	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	15	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	16	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	17	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	18	used	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	19	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	20	predictive	predictive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	21	purposes	purpose	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	22	assuming	assume	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	23	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	24	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	25	behavior	behavior	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	26	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	27	economic	economic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	28	agents	agent	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	29	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	30	policy	policy	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	31	makers	maker	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	32	over	over	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	33	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	34	prediction	prediction	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	35	period	period	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	36	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	37	similar	similar	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	38	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	39	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	40	behavior	behavior	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	41	during	during	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	42	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	43	estimation	estimation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	44	period	period	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	15	45	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	1	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	2	structural	structural	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	3	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	4	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	5	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	7	other	other	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	8	hand	hand	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	10	attempts	attempt	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	11	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	12	identify	identify	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	13	causal	causal	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	14	relationships	relationship	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	15	or	or	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	16	parameters	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	17	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	18	characterize	characterize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	19	policy	policy	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	20	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	21	invariant	invariant	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	22	preferences	preference	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	23	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	24	economic	economic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	25	agents	agent	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	26	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	27	production	production	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	28	technologies	technology	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	16	29	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	1	structural	structural	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	2	economic	economic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	3	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	4	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	5	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	6	used	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	7	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	8	assess	assess	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	10	effects	effect	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	11	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	12	counterfactual	counterfactual	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	13	policies	policy	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	14	during	during	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	15	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	16	estimation	estimation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	17	period	period	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	18	or	or	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	19	over	over	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	20	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	21	out	out	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	22	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	23	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	24	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	25	sample	sample	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	26	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	27	horizon	horizon	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	17	28	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	2	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	3	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	4	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	5	developed	develop	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	6	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	7	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	8	paper	paper	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	9	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	10	generate	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	11	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	12	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	13	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	14	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	15	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	16	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	17	reduced	reduce	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	18	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	19	form	form	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	20	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	18	21	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	1	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	2	processes	process	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	3	cross	cross	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	4	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	5	sectional	sectional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	6	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	7	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	8	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	9	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	10	information	information	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	11	about	about	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	12	past	past	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	13	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	14	levels	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	15	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	16	maps	map	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	17	them	they	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	18	into	into	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	19	predictions	prediction	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	20	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	21	future	future	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	22	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	19	23	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	1	while	while	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	3	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	4	specification	specification	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	5	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	6	motivated	motivate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	7	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	9	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	10	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	11	path	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	12	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	13	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	14	generated	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	15	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	16	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	17	workhorse	workhorse	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	18	compartmental	compartmental	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	19	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	20	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	21	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	22	epidemiology	epidemiology	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	23	literature	literature	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	24	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	25	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	26	so	so	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	27	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	28	called	call	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	29	susceptible	susceptible	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	30	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	31	infected	infect	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	32	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	33	recovered	recover	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	34	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	35	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	36	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	37	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	38	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	39	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	40	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	41	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	42	designed	design	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	43	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	44	answer	answer	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	45	quantitative	quantitative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	46	policy	policy	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	47	questions	question	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	48	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	49	e.g.	e.g.	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	50	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	51	about	about	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	52	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	53	impact	impact	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	54	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	55	social	social	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	56	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	57	distancing	distancing	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	58	measures	measure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	59	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	60	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	61	path	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	62	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	63	future	future	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	64	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	65	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	20	66	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	1	building	build	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	2	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	3	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	4	long	long	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	5	tradition	tradition	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	6	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	7	econometric	econometric	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	8	modeling	modeling	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	9	dating	date	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	10	back	back	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	11	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	12	haavelmo	haavelmo	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	13	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	14	1944	1944	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	15	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	16	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	17	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	18	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	19	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	20	probabilistic	probabilistic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	21	21	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	2	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	3	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	6	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	7	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	8	decomposed	decompose	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	9	into	into	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	10	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	11	deter	deter	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	12	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	13	about	about	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	14	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	15	parameters	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	16	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	17	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	18	about	about	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	19	future	future	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	20	shocks	shock	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	22	21	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	2	model	model	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	4	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	5	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	6	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	7	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	8	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	9	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	10	autoregressive	autoregressive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	11	fluctuations	fluctuation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	12	around	around	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	13	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	14	deterministic	deterministic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	15	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	16	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	17	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	18	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	19	piecewise	piecewise	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	20	linear	linear	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	23	21	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	2	coefficients	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	4	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	5	deterministic	deterministic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	6	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	7	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	8	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	9	allowed	allow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	10	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	11	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	12	heterogeneous	heterogeneous	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	13	across	across	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	14	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	24	15	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	2	goal	goal	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	3	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	4	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	5	curve	curve	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	6	fitting	fitting	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	7	-our	-our	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	8	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	9	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	10	distinctly	distinctly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	11	less	less	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	12	flexible	flexible	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	13	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	14	samples	sample	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	15	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	16	some	some	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	17	other	other	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	18	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	19	-but	-but	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	20	rather	rather	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	21	out	out	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	22	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	23	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	24	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	25	sample	sample	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	26	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	27	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	28	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	29	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	30	why	why	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	31	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	32	prefer	prefer	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	33	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	34	project	project	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	35	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	36	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	37	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	38	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	39	autoregressive	autoregressive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	40	fluctuations	fluctuation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	41	around	around	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	42	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	43	parsimonious	parsimonious	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	44	linear	linear	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	45	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	46	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	47	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	48	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	49	single	single	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	50	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	25	51	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	1	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	2	key	key	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	3	feature	feature	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	6	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	7	pandemic	pandemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	8	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	9	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	10	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	11	outbreaks	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	12	did	do	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	13	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	14	take	take	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	15	place	place	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	16	simultaneously	simultaneously	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	17	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	18	all	all	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	19	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	26	20	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	1	thus	thus	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	3	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	4	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	5	potentially	potentially	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	6	learn	learn	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	7	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	9	speed	speed	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	10	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	12	spread	spread	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	13	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	15	disease	disease	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	16	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	17	subsequent	subsequent	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	18	containment	containment	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	19	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	20	country	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	21	a	a	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	22	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	23	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	24	make	make	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	25	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	26	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	27	what	what	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	28	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	29	likely	likely	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	30	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	31	happen	happen	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	32	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	33	country	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	34	b	b	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	35	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	36	while	while	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	37	simultaneously	simultaneously	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	38	allowing	allow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	39	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	40	some	some	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	41	heterogeneity	heterogeneity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	42	across	across	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	43	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	27	44	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	2	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	3	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	4	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	5	setting	setting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	6	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	7	one	one	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	8	captures	capture	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	9	cross	cross	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	10	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	11	sectional	sectional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	12	heterogeneity	heterogeneity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	13	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	15	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	16	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	17	unit	unit	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	18	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	19	specific	specific	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	20	parameters	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	28	21	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	2	more	more	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	3	precisely	precisely	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	4	these	these	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	5	heterogeneous	heterogeneous	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	6	coefficients	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	7	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	8	estimated	estimate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	10	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	11	more	more	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	12	accurate	accurate	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	13	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	15	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	29	16	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	1	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	2	natural	natural	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	3	way	way	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	5	disciplining	discipline	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	7	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	8	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	9	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	10	assume	assume	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	11	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	13	heterogeneous	heterogeneous	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	14	coefficients	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	15	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	16	"	"	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	17	drawn	draw	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	18	"	"	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	19	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	20	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	21	common	common	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	22	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	23	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	30	24	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	1	if	if	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	2	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	3	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	4	has	have	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	5	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	6	large	large	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	7	variance	variance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	8	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	9	then	then	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	10	there	there	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	11	is	be	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	12	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	13	lot	lot	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	14	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	15	country	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	16	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	17	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	18	heterogeneity	heterogeneity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	19	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	20	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	21	evolution	evolution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	22	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	23	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	24	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	31	25	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	1	if	if	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	2	instead	instead	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	3	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	5	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	6	has	have	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	7	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	8	small	small	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	9	variance	variance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	10	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	11	then	then	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	13	path	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	14	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	15	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	16	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	17	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	18	very	very	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	19	similar	similar	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	20	across	across	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	21	samples	sample	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	22	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	23	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	24	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	25	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	26	learn	learn	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	27	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	28	lot	lot	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	29	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	30	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	31	say	say	INTJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	32	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	33	china	china	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	34	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	35	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	36	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	37	relevant	relevant	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	38	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	39	predicting	predict	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	40	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	41	path	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	42	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	43	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	44	disease	disease	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	45	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	46	south	south	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	47	korea	korea	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	48	or	or	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	49	germany	germany	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	32	50	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	1	formally	formally	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	4	cross	cross	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	5	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	6	sectional	sectional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	7	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	8	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	9	coefficients	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	10	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	11	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	12	used	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	13	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	14	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	15	so	so	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	16	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	17	called	call	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	18	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	19	priori	priori	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	20	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	21	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	22	prior	prior	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	23	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	24	when	when	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	25	making	make	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	26	inference	inference	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	27	about	about	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	28	country	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	29	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	30	specific	specific	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	31	coefficients	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	33	32	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	1	using	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	2	bayesian	bayesian	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	3	inference	inference	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	4	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	5	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	6	combine	combine	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	8	prior	prior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	9	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	10	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	12	unit	unit	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	13	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	14	specific	specific	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	15	likelihood	likelihood	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	16	functions	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	17	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	18	compute	compute	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	19	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	20	posteriori	posteriori	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	21	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	22	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	23	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	24	distributions	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	34	25	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	1	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	2	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	3	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	4	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	5	then	then	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	6	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	7	used	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	8	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	9	generate	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	10	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	11	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	12	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	13	future	future	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	14	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	35	15	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	36	1	unfortunately	unfortunately	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	36	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	36	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	36	4	cross	cross	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	36	5	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	36	6	sectional	sectional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	36	7	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	36	8	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	36	9	heterogeneous	heterogeneous	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	36	10	coefficients	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	36	11	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	36	12	unknown	unknown	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	36	13	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	2	key	key	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	3	insight	insight	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	4	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	6	literature	literature	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	7	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	8	bayesian	bayesian	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	9	estimation	estimation	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	10	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	11	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	12	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	13	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	14	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	15	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	16	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	17	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	18	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	19	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	20	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	21	called	call	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	22	random	random	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	23	effects	effect	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	24	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	25	re	re	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	26	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	27	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	28	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	29	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	30	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	31	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	32	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	33	literature	literature	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	34	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	35	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	36	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	37	extracted	extract	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	38	through	through	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	39	simultaneous	simultaneous	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	40	estimation	estimation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	41	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	42	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	43	cross	cross	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	44	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	45	sectional	sectional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	46	dimension	dimension	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	47	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	48	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	49	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	50	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	51	set	set	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	37	52	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	38	1	there	there	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	38	2	are	be	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	38	3	several	several	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	38	4	ways	way	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	38	5	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	38	6	implementing	implement	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	38	7	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	38	8	basic	basic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	38	9	idea	idea	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	38	10	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	1	reflect	reflect	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	2	parameter	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	3	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	4	as	as	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	5	well	well	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	6	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	7	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	8	about	about	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	9	shocks	shock	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	10	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	11	capture	capture	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	12	deviations	deviation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	13	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	15	deterministic	deterministic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	16	component	component	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	17	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	18	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	19	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	20	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	39	21	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	40	1	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	40	2	empirical	empirical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	40	3	analysis	analysis	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	40	4	makes	make	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	40	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	40	6	following	follow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	40	7	contributions	contribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	40	8	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	1	first	first	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	3	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	4	present	present	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	5	estimates	estimate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	6	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	8	re	re	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	9	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	10	as	as	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	11	well	well	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	12	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	14	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	15	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	16	location	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	17	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	18	specific	specific	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	19	coefficient	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	20	estimates	estimate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	41	21	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	1	second	second	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	3	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	4	document	document	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	5	how	how	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	6	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	7	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	8	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	9	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	10	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	11	have	have	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	12	evolved	evolve	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	13	over	over	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	14	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	15	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	16	focusing	focus	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	17	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	19	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	20	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	21	three	three	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	22	countries	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	23	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	24	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	25	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	26	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	27	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	28	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	29	peaked	peak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	30	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	31	different	different	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	32	points	point	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	33	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	34	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	35	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	36	south	south	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	37	korea	korea	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	38	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	39	germany	germany	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	40	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	41	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	42	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	43	u.s	u.s	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	44	.	.	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	45	due	due	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	46	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	47	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	48	exponential	exponential	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	49	transformation	transformation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	50	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	51	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	52	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	53	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	54	levels	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	55	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	56	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	57	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	58	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	59	feature	feature	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	60	substantial	substantial	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	61	tail	tail	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	62	risk	risk	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	63	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	64	assigning	assign	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	65	nontrivial	nontrivial	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	66	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	67	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	68	very	very	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	69	high	high	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	70	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	71	levels	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	72	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	73	materialized	materialize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	74	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	75	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	76	u.s	u.s	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	77	.	.	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	78	but	but	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	79	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	80	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	81	germany	germany	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	82	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	83	south	south	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	84	korea	korea	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	42	85	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	1	third	third	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	3	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	4	evaluate	evaluate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	5	one	one	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	6	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	7	week	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	8	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	9	four	four	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	10	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	11	week	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	12	ahead	ahead	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	13	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	14	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	15	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	16	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	17	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	18	continuous	continuous	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	19	ranked	rank	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	20	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	21	score	score	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	22	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	23	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	24	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	25	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	26	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	27	cross	cross	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	28	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	29	sectional	sectional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	30	coverage	coverage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	31	frequency	frequency	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	32	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	33	average	average	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	34	length	length	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	43	35	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	2	addition	addition	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	3	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	4	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	5	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	6	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	7	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	8	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	9	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	10	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	11	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	12	also	also	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	13	consider	consider	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	14	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	15	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	16	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	17	location	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	18	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	19	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	20	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	21	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	22	estimates	estimate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	23	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	24	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	25	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	26	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	27	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	28	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	29	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	30	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	31	simple	simple	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	32	sir	sir	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	33	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	44	34	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	1	once	once	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	2	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	3	decompose	decompose	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	5	set	set	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	6	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	7	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	8	into	into	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	9	those	those	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	10	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	11	experienced	experience	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	13	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	14	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	15	early	early	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	16	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	17	prior	prior	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	18	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	19	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	20	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	21	03	03	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	22	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	23	28	28	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	24	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	25	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	26	those	those	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	27	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	28	experience	experience	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	29	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	30	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	31	later	later	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	32	on	on	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	33	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	34	then	then	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	35	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	36	find	find	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	37	some	some	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	38	evidence	evidence	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	39	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	40	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	41	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	42	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	43	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	44	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	45	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	46	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	47	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	48	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	49	more	more	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	50	accurate	accurate	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	51	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	52	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	53	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	54	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	55	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	56	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	45	57	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	1	however	however	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	3	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	6	substantial	substantial	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	7	heterogeneity	heterogeneity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	8	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	9	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	10	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	11	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	13	poor	poor	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	14	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	15	quality	quality	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	16	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	17	some	some	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	18	countries	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	19	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	20	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	21	empirical	empirical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	22	evidence	evidence	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	23	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	24	favor	favor	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	25	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	26	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	27	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	28	approach	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	29	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	30	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	31	as	as	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	32	tidy	tidy	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	33	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	34	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	35	simulation	simulation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	36	evidenced	evidence	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	37	provided	provide	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	38	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	39	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	40	monte	monte	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	41	carlo	carlo	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	42	section	section	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	43	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	44	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	45	paper	paper	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	46	46	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	1	over	over	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	2	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	3	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	4	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	5	particular	particular	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	6	after	after	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	8	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	9	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	10	has	have	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	11	peaked	peak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	12	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	13	started	start	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	14	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	15	fall	fall	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	16	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	17	forecast	forecast	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	18	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	19	increases	increase	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	47	20	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	48	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	48	2	timing	timing	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	48	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	48	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	48	5	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	48	6	appears	appear	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	48	7	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	48	8	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	48	9	very	very	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	48	10	difficult	difficult	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	48	11	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	48	12	forecast	forecast	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	48	13	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	1	prior	prior	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	2	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	4	middle	middle	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	5	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	6	may	may	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	8	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	9	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	10	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	11	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	12	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	13	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	14	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	15	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	16	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	17	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	18	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	19	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	20	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	21	substantially	substantially	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	22	more	more	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	23	accurate	accurate	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	24	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	25	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	26	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	27	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	28	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	29	simple	simple	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	30	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	31	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	32	varying	vary	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	33	coefficient	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	34	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	35	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	49	36	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	2	subsequent	subsequent	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	3	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	4	origins	origin	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	5	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	7	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	8	across	across	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	10	three	three	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	11	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	12	procedures	procedure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	13	becomes	become	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	14	much	much	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	15	more	more	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	16	similar	similar	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	50	17	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	1	weekly	weekly	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	2	real	real	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	3	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	4	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	5	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	6	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	7	published	publish	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	8	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	10	companion	companion	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	11	website	website	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	12	https://laurayuliu.com/covid19-panel-forecast/.	https://laurayuliu.com/covid19-panel-forecast/.	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	13	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	14	terms	term	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	15	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	16	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	17	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	18	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	19	find	find	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	20	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	21	over	over	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	22	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	23	one	one	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	24	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	25	week	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	26	horizon	horizon	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	27	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	28	empirical	empirical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	29	coverage	coverage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	30	frequency	frequency	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	31	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	32	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	33	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	34	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	35	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	36	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	37	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	38	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	39	close	close	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	40	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	41	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	42	nominal	nominal	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	43	coverage	coverage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	44	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	45	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	46	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	47	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	48	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	49	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	50	were	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	51	constructed	construct	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	51	52	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	1	moreover	moreover	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	3	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	4	april	april	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	5	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	6	may	may	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	7	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	9	average	average	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	10	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	11	lengths	length	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	12	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	14	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	15	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	16	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	17	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	18	slightly	slightly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	19	smaller	small	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	20	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	21	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	22	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	23	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	24	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	25	intervals	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	52	26	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	1	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	3	four	four	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	4	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	5	week	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	6	horizon	horizon	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	8	coverage	coverage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	9	frequency	frequency	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	10	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	11	considerably	considerably	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	12	smaller	small	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	13	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	15	nominal	nominal	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	16	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	17	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	18	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	19	deteriorates	deteriorate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	20	further	far	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	21	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	22	longer	long	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	23	horizons	horizon	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	53	24	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	54	1	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	54	2	paper	paper	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	54	3	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	54	4	connected	connect	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	54	5	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	54	6	several	several	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	54	7	strands	strand	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	54	8	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	54	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	54	10	literature	literature	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	54	11	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	2	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	3	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	4	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	5	approach	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	6	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	7	closely	closely	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	8	related	relate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	9	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	10	work	work	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	11	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	12	gu	gu	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	13	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	14	koenker	koenker	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	15	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	16	2017a	2017a	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	17	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	18	b	b	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	19	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	20	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	21	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	22	own	own	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	23	work	work	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	24	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	25	liu	liu	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	26	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	27	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	28	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	29	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	30	liu	liu	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	31	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	32	moon	moon	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	33	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	34	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	35	schorfheide	schorfheide	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	36	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	37	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	38	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	39	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	40	liu	liu	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	41	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	42	moon	moon	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	43	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	44	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	45	schorfheide	schorfheide	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	46	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	47	2019	2019	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	48	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	55	49	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	1	all	all	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	2	five	five	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	3	papers	paper	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	4	focus	focus	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	5	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	7	estimation	estimation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	8	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	10	heterogeneous	heterogeneous	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	11	coefficients	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	12	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	13	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	14	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	15	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	56	16	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	2	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	3	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	4	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	6	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	7	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	8	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	9	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	10	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	12	alternative	alternative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	13	parametric	parametric	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	14	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	15	considered	consider	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	16	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	17	liu	liu	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	18	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	19	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	20	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	21	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	22	tailored	tailor	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	23	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	24	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	25	specifics	specific	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	26	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	27	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	28	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	29	pandemic	pandemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	57	30	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	58	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	58	2	approach	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	58	3	has	have	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	58	4	several	several	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	58	5	desirable	desirable	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	58	6	theoretical	theoretical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	58	7	properties	property	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	58	8	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	2	instance	instance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	3	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	4	liu	liu	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	5	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	6	moon	moon	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	7	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	8	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	9	schorfheide	schorfheide	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	10	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	11	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	12	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	13	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	14	building	build	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	15	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	16	brown	brown	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	17	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	18	greenshtein	greenshtein	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	19	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	20	2009	2009	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	21	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	22	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	23	show	show	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	24	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	25	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	26	empirical	empirical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	27	bayes	bayes	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	28	implementation	implementation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	29	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	30	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	31	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	32	approach	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	33	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	34	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	35	tweedie	tweedie	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	36	's	's	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	37	formula	formula	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	38	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	39	asymptotically	asymptotically	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	40	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	41	as	as	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	42	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	43	crosssectional	crosssectional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	44	dimension	dimension	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	45	tends	tend	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	46	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	47	infinity	infinity	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	48	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	49	lead	lead	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	50	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	51	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	52	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	53	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	54	as	as	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	55	accurate	accurate	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	56	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	57	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	58	so	so	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	59	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	60	called	call	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	61	oracle	oracle	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	62	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	59	63	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	1	here	here	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	3	oracle	oracle	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	4	forecast	forecast	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	5	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	6	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	7	infeasible	infeasible	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	8	benchmark	benchmark	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	9	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	10	assumes	assume	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	11	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	13	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	14	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	15	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	16	heterogeneous	heterogeneous	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	17	coefficients	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	18	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	19	known	know	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	20	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	21	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	22	forecaster	forecaster	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	60	23	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	1	liu	liu	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	2	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	3	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	4	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	5	shows	show	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	6	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	8	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	9	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	10	obtained	obtain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	11	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	13	full	full	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	14	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	15	analysis	analysis	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	16	converges	converge	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	17	strongly	strongly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	18	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	19	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	20	oracle	oracle	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	21	's	's	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	22	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	23	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	24	as	as	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	25	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	26	cross	cross	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	27	-	-	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	28	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	29	gets	get	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	30	large	large	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	61	31	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	2	piecewise	piecewise	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	3	linear	linear	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	4	conditional	conditional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	5	mean	mean	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	6	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	7	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	9	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	10	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	11	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	12	resembles	resemble	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	13	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	14	spline	spline	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	15	;	;	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	16	see	see	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	17	de	de	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	18	boor	boor	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	19	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	20	1990	1990	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	21	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	22	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	23	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	24	introduction	introduction	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	25	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	26	spline	spline	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	27	approximation	approximation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	62	28	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	1	unlike	unlike	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	2	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	3	typical	typical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	4	spline	spline	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	5	approximation	approximation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	6	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	7	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	9	knot	knot	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	10	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	11	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	12	free	free	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	13	parameters	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	14	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	15	some	some	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	16	continuity	continuity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	17	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	18	smoothness	smoothness	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	19	restrictions	restriction	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	20	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	21	imposed	impose	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	22	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	23	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	24	knot	knot	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	25	placement	placement	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	26	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	27	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	28	setting	setting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	29	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	30	closely	closely	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	31	tied	tie	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	32	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	33	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	34	first	first	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	35	component	component	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	36	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	37	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	38	spline	spline	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	39	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	40	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	41	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	42	do	do	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	43	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	44	impose	impose	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	45	continuity	continuity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	63	46	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	1	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	2	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	3	could	could	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	4	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	5	generalized	generalize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	6	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	7	adding	add	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	8	additional	additional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	9	knots	knot	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	10	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	12	deterministic	deterministic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	13	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	14	component	component	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	15	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	16	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	17	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	18	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	19	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	20	but	but	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	21	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	22	extension	extension	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	23	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	24	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	25	pursued	pursue	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	26	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	27	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	28	paper	paper	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	64	29	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	1	other	other	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	2	authors	author	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	3	have	have	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	4	explored	explore	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	5	alternative	alternative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	6	forms	form	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	7	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	8	nonlinearity	nonlinearity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	9	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	10	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	11	often	often	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	12	tied	tie	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	13	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	15	object	object	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	16	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	17	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	18	being	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	19	modeled	model	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	20	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	21	e.g.	e.g.	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	22	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	23	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	24	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	25	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	26	cumulative	cumulative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	27	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	28	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	29	new	new	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	30	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	31	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	32	deaths	death	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	65	33	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	2	instance	instance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	3	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	4	li	li	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	5	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	6	linton	linton	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	7	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	8	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	9	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	10	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	12	logarithm	logarithm	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	13	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	14	country	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	15	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	16	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	17	new	new	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	18	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	19	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	20	new	new	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	21	deaths	death	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	22	via	via	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	23	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	24	quadratic	quadratic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	25	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	26	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	27	using	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	28	rolling	rolling	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	29	samples	sample	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	66	30	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	1	ho	ho	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	3	lubik	lubik	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	4	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	5	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	6	matthes	matthe	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	7	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	8	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	9	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	10	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	12	cumulative	cumulative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	13	number	number	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	14	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	15	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	16	using	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	17	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	18	very	very	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	19	flexible	flexible	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	20	nonlinear	nonlinear	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	21	parametric	parametric	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	22	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	67	23	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	1	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	2	important	important	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	3	aspect	aspect	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	5	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	6	modeling	modeling	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	7	framework	framework	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	8	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	9	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	10	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	11	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	12	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	13	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	14	specified	specify	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	15	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	16	event	event	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	17	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	18	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	19	i.e.	i.e.	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	20	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	21	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	22	since	since	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	23	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	24	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	25	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	26	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	27	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	28	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	29	particular	particular	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	30	location	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	31	exceeds	exceed	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	32	100	100	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	68	33	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	69	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	69	2	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	69	3	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	69	4	however	however	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	69	5	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	69	6	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	69	7	generated	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	69	8	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	69	9	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	69	10	calendar	calendar	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	69	11	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	69	12	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	1	this	this	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	2	allows	allow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	3	us	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	4	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	5	sharpen	sharpen	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	6	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	7	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	8	countries	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	9	/	/	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	10	regions	region	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	11	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	12	experienced	experience	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	13	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	14	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	15	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	16	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	17	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	18	stage	stage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	19	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	20	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	21	terms	term	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	22	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	23	calendar	calendar	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	24	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	25	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	26	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	27	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	28	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	29	information	information	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	30	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	31	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	32	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	33	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	34	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	35	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	70	36	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	71	1	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	71	2	idea	idea	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	71	3	j	j	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	72	1	o	o	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	72	2	u	u	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	72	3	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	73	1	n	n	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	73	2	a	a	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	73	3	l	l	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	73	4	p	p	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	73	5	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	73	6	e	e	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	73	7	-p	-p	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	74	1	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	74	2	o	o	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	75	1	o	o	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	1	f	f	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	2	journal	journal	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	3	pre	pre	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	4	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	5	proof	proof	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	6	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	7	also	also	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	8	utilized	utilize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	9	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	10	larson	larson	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	11	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	12	sinclair	sinclair	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	13	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	14	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	15	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	16	who	who	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	17	use	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	18	state	state	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	19	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	20	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	21	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	22	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	23	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	24	nowcast	nowcast	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	25	unemployment	unemployment	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	26	insurance	insurance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	27	claims	claim	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	28	during	during	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	29	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	76	30	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	1	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	2	growing	grow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	3	number	number	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	5	researchers	researcher	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	6	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	7	backgrounds	background	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	8	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	9	epidemiology	epidemiology	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	10	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	11	biostatistics	biostatistic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	12	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	13	machine	machine	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	14	learning	learning	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	15	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	16	economics	economic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	17	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	18	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	19	econometrics	econometric	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	20	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	21	engaged	engage	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	22	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	23	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	24	aspects	aspect	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	25	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	26	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	27	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	28	pandemic	pandemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	77	29	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	1	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	2	this	this	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	3	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	4	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	5	rapidly	rapidly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	6	expanding	expand	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	7	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	8	diverse	diverse	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	9	field	field	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	10	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	11	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	12	do	do	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	13	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	14	attempt	attempt	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	15	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	16	provide	provide	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	17	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	18	meaningful	meaningful	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	19	survey	survey	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	20	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	21	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	22	moment	moment	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	78	23	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	79	1	instead	instead	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	79	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	79	3	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	79	4	simply	simply	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	79	5	provide	provide	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	79	6	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	79	7	few	few	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	79	8	pointers	pointer	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	79	9	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	1	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	2	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	3	reported	report	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	4	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	6	abovementioned	abovementioned	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	7	papers	paper	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	8	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	9	li	li	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	10	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	11	linton	linton	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	12	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	13	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	14	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	15	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	16	ho	ho	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	17	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	18	lubik	lubik	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	19	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	20	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	21	matthes	matthe	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	22	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	23	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	24	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	80	25	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	2	paper	paper	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	3	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	4	avery	avery	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	5	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	6	bossert	bossert	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	7	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	8	clark	clark	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	10	ellison	ellison	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	11	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	12	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	13	fisher	fisher	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	14	ellison	ellison	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	15	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	16	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	17	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	19	remainder	remainder	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	20	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	21	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	22	paper	paper	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	23	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	24	organized	organize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	25	as	as	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	26	follows	follow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	81	27	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	1	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	2	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	3	provides	provide	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	4	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	5	brief	brief	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	6	survey	survey	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	7	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	8	epidemiological	epidemiological	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	9	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	10	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	11	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	12	particular	particular	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	13	emphasis	emphasis	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	14	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	15	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	16	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	17	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	82	18	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	2	specification	specification	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	4	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	5	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	6	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	7	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	8	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	9	presented	present	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	10	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	11	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	12	3	3	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	13	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	14	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	15	4	4	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	16	contains	contain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	17	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	18	small	small	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	19	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	20	scale	scale	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	21	monte	monte	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	22	carlo	carlo	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	23	study	study	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	24	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	25	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	26	empirical	empirical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	27	analysis	analysis	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	28	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	29	conducted	conduct	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	30	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	31	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	32	5	5	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	83	33	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	84	1	finally	finally	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	84	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	84	3	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	84	4	6	6	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	84	5	concludes	conclude	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	84	6	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	85	1	there	there	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	85	2	is	be	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	85	3	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	85	4	long	long	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	85	5	history	history	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	85	6	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	85	7	modeling	model	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	85	8	epidemics	epidemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	85	9	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	1	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	2	recent	recent	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	3	survey	survey	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	5	modeling	modeling	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	6	approaches	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	7	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	8	provided	provide	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	9	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	10	bertozzi	bertozzi	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	11	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	12	franco	franco	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	13	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	14	mohler	mohler	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	15	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	16	short	short	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	17	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	18	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	19	sledge	sledge	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	20	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	21	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	22	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	86	23	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	2	authors	author	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	3	distinguish	distinguish	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	4	three	three	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	5	types	type	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	6	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	7	macroscopic	macroscopic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	8	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	9	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	10	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	11	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	12	i	i	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	13	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	15	exponential	exponential	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	16	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	17	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	18	;	;	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	19	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	20	ii	ii	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	21	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	22	self	self	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	23	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	24	exciting	exciting	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	25	point	point	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	26	processes	process	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	27	/	/	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	28	branching	branching	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	29	processes	process	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	30	;	;	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	31	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	32	iii	iii	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	33	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	34	compartmental	compartmental	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	35	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	36	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	37	most	most	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	38	notably	notably	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	39	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	40	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	41	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	42	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	43	divides	divide	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	44	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	45	population	population	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	46	into	into	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	47	susceptible	susceptible	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	48	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	49	s	s	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	50	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	51	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	52	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	53	infected	infect	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	54	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	55	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	56	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	57	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	58	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	59	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	60	resistant	resistant	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	61	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	62	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	63	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	64	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	65	individuals	individual	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	87	66	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	1	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	2	subsequent	subsequent	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	3	discussion	discussion	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	4	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	5	focus	focus	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	6	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	8	exponential	exponential	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	9	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	10	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	11	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	13	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	14	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	88	15	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	1	while	while	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	2	epidemiological	epidemiological	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	3	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	4	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	5	often	often	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	6	specified	specify	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	7	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	8	continuous	continuous	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	9	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	10	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	11	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	12	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	13	con	con	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	14	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	15	sider	sider	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	16	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	17	discrete	discrete	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	18	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	19	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	20	specification	specification	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	21	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	22	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	23	paper	paper	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	24	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	25	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	26	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	27	more	more	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	28	convenient	convenient	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	29	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	30	econometric	econometric	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	31	inference	inference	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	89	32	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	90	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	90	2	exponential	exponential	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	90	3	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	90	4	takes	take	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	90	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	90	6	form	form	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	91	1	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	92	1	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	93	1	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	93	2	i	i	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	93	3	0	0	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	93	4	exp(γ	exp(γ	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	93	5	0	0	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	93	6	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	93	7	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	93	8	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	2	number	number	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	4	infected	infected	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	5	individuals	individual	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	6	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	7	grow	grow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	8	exponentially	exponentially	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	9	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	10	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	11	constant	constant	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	12	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	13	γ	γ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	14	0	0	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	94	15	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	1	this	this	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	2	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	3	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	4	reasonable	reasonable	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	5	assumption	assumption	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	6	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	7	describe	describe	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	9	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	10	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	11	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	12	disease	disease	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	13	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	14	but	but	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	15	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	16	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	17	subsequent	subsequent	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	18	dynamics	dynamic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	19	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	20	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	21	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	22	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	23	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	24	typically	typically	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	25	fall	fall	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	26	over	over	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	27	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	28	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	29	eventually	eventually	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	30	turn	turn	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	31	negative	negative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	32	as	as	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	33	more	more	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	34	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	35	more	more	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	36	people	people	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	37	become	become	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	38	resistant	resistant	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	39	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	40	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	41	disease	disease	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	95	42	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	96	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	96	2	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	96	3	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	96	4	dates	date	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	96	5	back	back	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	96	6	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	96	7	kermack	kermack	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	96	8	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	96	9	mckendrick	mckendrick	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	96	10	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	96	11	1927	1927	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	96	12	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	96	13	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	2	its	its	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	3	most	most	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	4	elementary	elementary	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	5	version	version	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	6	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	7	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	8	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	9	written	write	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	10	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	11	discrete	discrete	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	12	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	13	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	14	as	as	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	15	follows	follow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	16	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	17	where	where	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	18	n	n	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	19	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	20	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	21	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	22	fixed	fix	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	23	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	24	size	size	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	25	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	26	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	27	population	population	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	28	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	29	β	β	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	30	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	31	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	32	average	average	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	33	number	number	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	34	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	35	contacts	contact	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	36	per	per	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	37	person	person	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	38	per	per	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	39	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	40	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	41	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	42	γ	γ	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	43	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	44	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	45	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	46	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	47	recovery	recovery	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	48	or	or	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	49	mortality	mortality	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	97	50	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	2	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	3	could	could	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	4	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	5	made	make	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	6	stochastic	stochastic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	7	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	8	assuming	assume	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	9	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	10	β	β	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	11	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	12	γ	γ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	13	vary	vary	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	14	over	over	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	15	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	16	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	17	e.g.	e.g.	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	18	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	19	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	20	response	response	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	21	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	22	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	23	recent	recent	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	24	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	25	pandemic	pandemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	26	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	27	several	several	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	28	introductory	introductory	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	29	treatments	treatment	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	30	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	31	sir	sir	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	32	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	33	have	have	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	34	been	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	35	written	write	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	36	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	37	economists	economist	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	38	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	39	e.g.	e.g.	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	40	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	41	avery	avery	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	42	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	43	bossert	bossert	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	44	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	45	clark	clark	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	46	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	47	ellison	ellison	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	48	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	49	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	50	fisher	fisher	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	51	ellison	ellison	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	52	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	53	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	54	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	55	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	56	stock	stock	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	57	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	58	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	59	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	98	60	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	1	moreover	moreover	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	3	there	there	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	4	is	be	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	5	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	6	growing	grow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	7	literature	literature	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	8	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	9	combines	combine	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	10	compartmental	compartmental	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	11	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	12	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	13	economic	economic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	14	components	component	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	99	15	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	2	these	these	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	3	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	4	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	5	economic	economic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	6	agents	agent	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	7	account	account	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	8	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	10	possibility	possibility	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	11	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	12	contracting	contract	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	13	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	14	disease	disease	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	15	when	when	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	16	making	make	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	17	their	their	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	18	decisions	decision	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	19	about	about	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	20	market	market	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	21	participation	participation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	100	22	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	1	this	this	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	2	creates	create	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	3	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	4	link	link	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	5	between	between	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	6	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	7	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	8	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	9	economic	economic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	10	activity	activity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	11	through	through	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	13	frequency	frequency	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	14	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	15	interactions	interaction	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	101	16	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	1	examples	example	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	2	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	3	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	4	work	work	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	5	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	6	macroeconomics	macroeconomic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	7	include	include	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	8	eichenbaum	eichenbaum	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	10	rebelo	rebelo	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	11	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	12	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	13	trabandt	trabandt	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	14	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	15	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	16	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	17	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	18	glover	glover	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	19	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	20	heathcote	heathcote	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	21	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	22	krueger	krueger	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	23	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	24	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	25	rios	rio	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	26	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	27	rull	rull	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	28	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	29	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	30	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	31	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	32	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	33	krueger	krueger	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	34	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	35	uhlig	uhlig	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	36	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	37	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	38	xie	xie	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	39	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	40	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	41	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	102	42	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	2	advantage	advantage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	4	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	5	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	6	link	link	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	7	health	health	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	8	status	status	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	9	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	10	economic	economic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	11	activity	activity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	12	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	13	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	14	they	they	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	15	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	16	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	17	used	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	18	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	19	assess	assess	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	20	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	21	economic	economic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	22	impact	impact	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	23	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	24	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	25	say	say	INTJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	26	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	27	social	social	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	28	distancing	distancing	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	29	measures	measure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	103	30	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	104	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	104	2	now	now	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	104	3	simulate	simulate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	104	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	104	5	constant	constant	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	104	6	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	104	7	coefficient	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	104	8	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	104	9	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	104	10	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	104	11	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	104	12	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	104	13	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	1	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	2	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	3	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	4	monotonically	monotonically	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	5	decreasing	decrease	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	6	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	7	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	8	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	9	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	10	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	11	approximate	approximate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	12	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	13	fitting	fit	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	14	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	15	piecewise	piecewise	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	16	linear	linear	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	17	least	least	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	18	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	19	squares	square	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	20	regression	regression	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	21	line	line	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	22	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	23	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	24	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	25	point	point	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	26	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	27	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	28	*	*	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	29	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	30	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	31	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	32	point	point	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	33	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	34	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	35	when	when	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	36	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	37	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	38	peak	peak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	39	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	40	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	41	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	42	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	43	transitions	transition	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	44	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	45	being	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	46	positive	positive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	47	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	48	being	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	49	negative	negative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	105	50	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	1	under	under	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	3	second	second	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	4	parameterization	parameterization	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	6	transmission	transmission	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	7	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	8	β	β	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	9	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	10	0.06	0.06	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	11	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	12	much	much	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	13	lower	low	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	14	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	15	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	16	recovery	recovery	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	17	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	18	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	19	slightly	slightly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	20	faster	fast	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	106	21	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	107	1	this	this	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	107	2	leads	lead	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	107	3	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	107	4	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	107	5	almost	almost	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	107	6	bell	bell	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	107	7	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	107	8	curve	curve	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	107	9	shaped	shape	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	107	10	path	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	107	11	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	107	12	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	107	13	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	1	while	while	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	3	resulting	result	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	4	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	5	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	6	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	8	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	9	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	10	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	11	exactly	exactly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	12	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	13	linear	linear	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	14	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	15	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	16	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	17	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	18	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	19	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	20	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	21	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	22	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	23	*	*	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	24	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	25	much	much	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	26	less	less	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	27	pronounced	pronounced	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	108	28	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	1	while	while	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	3	piecewise	piecewise	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	4	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	5	linear	linear	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	6	regression	regression	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	7	functions	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	8	do	do	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	9	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	10	fit	fit	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	11	perfectly	perfectly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	12	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	13	they	they	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	14	capture	capture	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	15	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	16	general	general	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	17	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	18	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	19	dependence	dependence	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	20	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	21	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	22	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	23	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	24	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	25	path	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	26	implied	imply	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	27	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	28	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	29	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	30	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	109	31	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	2	particular	particular	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	3	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	4	they	they	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	5	allow	allow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	6	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	7	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	8	potentially	potentially	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	9	much	much	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	10	slower	slow	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	11	change	change	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	12	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	14	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	15	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	16	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	17	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	18	after	after	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	19	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	20	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	110	21	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	2	use	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	3	these	these	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	4	simulations	simulation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	5	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	6	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	7	motivation	motivation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	8	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	10	subsequent	subsequent	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	11	specification	specification	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	12	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	13	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	14	empirical	empirical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	15	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	111	16	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	1	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	2	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	3	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	4	assumes	assume	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	5	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	7	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	8	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	9	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	10	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	11	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	12	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	13	decreasing	decrease	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	14	piecewiselinear	piecewiselinear	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	15	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	16	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	17	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	18	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	19	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	20	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	21	when	when	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	22	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	23	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	24	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	25	cross	cross	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	26	zero	zero	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	27	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	28	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	29	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	30	peak	peak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	112	31	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	1	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	2	deterministic	deterministic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	3	component	component	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	4	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	5	augmented	augment	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	6	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	7	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	8	stochastic	stochastic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	9	component	component	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	10	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	11	follows	follow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	12	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	13	first	first	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	14	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	15	order	order	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	16	autoregressive	autoregressive	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	17	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	18	ar(1	ar(1	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	19	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	20	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	21	process	process	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	113	22	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	114	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	114	2	refer	refer	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	114	3	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	114	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	114	5	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	114	6	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	114	7	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	114	8	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	114	9	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	114	10	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	114	11	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	2	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	3	revisit	revisit	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	4	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	5	stochastic	stochastic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	6	version	version	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	7	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	9	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	10	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	11	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	12	comprises	comprise	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	13	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	14	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	15	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	16	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	17	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	18	2	2	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	19	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	20	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	21	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	22	5.4	5.4	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	23	where	where	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	24	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	25	compare	compare	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	26	its	its	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	27	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	28	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	29	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	30	proposed	propose	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	31	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	32	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	33	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	34	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	115	35	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	116	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	116	2	now	now	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	116	3	describe	describe	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	116	4	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	116	5	empirical	empirical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	116	6	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	116	7	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	116	8	more	more	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	116	9	detail	detail	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	116	10	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	2	begin	begin	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	3	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	5	specification	specification	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	6	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	7	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	8	regression	regression	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	9	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	10	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	12	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	13	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	14	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	15	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	16	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	17	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	18	3.1	3.1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	117	19	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	118	1	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	118	2	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	118	3	features	feature	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	118	4	location	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	118	5	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	118	6	specific	specific	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	118	7	regression	regression	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	118	8	coefficients	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	118	9	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	118	10	heteroskedasticity	heteroskedasticity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	118	11	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	119	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	119	2	prior	prior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	119	3	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	119	4	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	119	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	119	6	bayesian	bayesian	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	119	7	analysis	analysis	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	119	8	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	119	9	summarized	summarize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	119	10	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	119	11	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	119	12	3.2	3.2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	119	13	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	1	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	2	inference	inference	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	3	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	4	implemented	implement	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	5	through	through	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	6	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	7	gibbs	gibbs	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	8	sampler	sampler	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	9	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	10	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	11	outlined	outline	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	12	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	13	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	14	3.3	3.3	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	120	15	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	121	1	further	further	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	121	2	computational	computational	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	121	3	details	detail	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	121	4	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	121	5	provided	provide	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	121	6	through	through	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	121	7	replication	replication	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	121	8	files	file	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	121	9	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	121	10	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	121	11	companion	companion	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	121	12	webpage	webpage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	121	13	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	2	algorithm	algorithm	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	3	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	4	obtain	obtain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	5	simulated	simulated	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	6	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	7	paths	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	8	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	10	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	11	predictive	predictive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	12	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	13	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	14	outlined	outline	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	15	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	16	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	17	3.4	3.4	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	122	18	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	123	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	123	2	specify	specify	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	123	3	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	123	4	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	123	5	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	123	6	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	123	7	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	123	8	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	123	9	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	123	10	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	124	1	y	y	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	124	2	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	124	3	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	124	4	δ	δ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	125	1	ln	ln	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	125	2	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	125	3	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	125	4	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	125	5	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	125	6	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	125	7	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	125	8	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	125	9	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	125	10	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	125	11	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	126	1	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	126	2	n	n	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	126	3	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	126	4	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	126	5	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	126	6	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	126	7	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	126	8	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	126	9	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	126	10	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	127	1	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	127	2	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	127	3	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	2	assume	assume	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	3	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	4	where	where	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	5	]	]	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	6	captures	capture	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	8	size	size	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	9	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	10	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	11	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	12	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	14	regression	regression	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	15	coefficients	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	16	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	17	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	18	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	19	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	20	*	*	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	21	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	128	22	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	2	deterministic	deterministic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	3	part	part	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	5	y	y	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	6	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	7	corresponds	correspond	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	8	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	10	piecewise	piecewise	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	11	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	12	linear	linear	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	13	regression	regression	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	14	functions	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	15	fitted	fit	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	16	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	17	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	18	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	19	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	20	paths	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	21	simulated	simulate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	22	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	23	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	24	sir	sir	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	25	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	26	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	27	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	129	28	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	2	serially	serially	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	3	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	4	correlated	correlate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	5	process	process	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	6	u	u	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	7	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	8	generates	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	9	stochastic	stochastic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	10	deviations	deviation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	11	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	13	deterministic	deterministic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	14	path	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	15	γ	γ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	16	i	i	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	17	x	x	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	18	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	19	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	20	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	21	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	22	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	23	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	130	24	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	2	u	u	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	3	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	4	shocks	shock	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	5	may	may	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	6	capture	capture	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	7	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	8	variation	variation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	9	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	10	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	11	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	12	β	β	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	13	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	14	γ	γ	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	15	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	16	parameters	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	17	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	19	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	20	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	21	or	or	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	22	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	23	alternatively	alternatively	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	24	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	25	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	26	misspecification	misspecification	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	131	27	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	132	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	132	2	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	132	3	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	132	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	132	5	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	132	6	point	point	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	132	7	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	133	1	*	*	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	134	1	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	134	2	was	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	134	3	given	give	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	134	4	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	134	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	134	6	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	134	7	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	134	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	134	9	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	134	10	path	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	134	11	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	135	1	abstracting	abstract	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	135	2	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	135	3	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	135	4	potential	potential	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	135	5	discontinuity	discontinuity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	135	6	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	135	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	135	8	kink	kink	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	135	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	135	10	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	135	11	define	define	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	135	12	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	135	13	*	*	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	136	1	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	136	2	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	136	3	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	136	4	implies	imply	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	136	5	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	136	6	e[y	e[y	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	136	7	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	136	8	|t	|t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	136	9	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	136	10	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	137	1	*	*	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	137	2	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	137	3	]	]	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	137	4	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	137	5	0	0	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	137	6	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	1	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	2	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	4	ar(1	ar(1	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	5	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	6	process	process	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	7	u	u	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	8	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	10	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	11	*	*	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	12	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	13	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	14	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	15	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	16	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	17	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	19	observed	observe	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	20	sample	sample	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	21	path	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	22	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	23	nor	nor	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	24	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	25	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	26	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	27	unbiased	unbiased	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	28	or	or	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	29	consistent	consistent	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	30	estimate	estimate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	31	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	32	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	33	period	period	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	34	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	35	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	36	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	37	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	38	peak	peak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	138	39	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	2	δ	δ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	3	i	i	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	4	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	5	0	0	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	6	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	8	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	9	reduces	reduce	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	10	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	11	note	note	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	12	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	14	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	15	date	date	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	16	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	17	*	*	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	18	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	19	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	20	identified	identify	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	21	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	22	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	23	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	24	even	even	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	25	if	if	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	26	δ	δ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	27	i	i	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	28	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	29	0	0	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	30	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	31	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	32	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	33	assume	assume	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	34	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	35	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	36	occurs	occur	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	37	when	when	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	38	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	39	deterministic	deterministic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	40	component	component	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	41	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	42	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	43	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	44	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	45	falls	fall	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	46	below	below	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	47	zero	zero	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	139	48	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	1	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	2	construct	construct	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	3	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	4	likelihood	likelihood	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	5	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	6	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	7	define	define	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	9	quasi	quasi	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	10	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	11	difference	difference	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	12	operator	operator	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	13	δ	δ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	14	ρ	ρ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	15	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	16	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	17	−	−	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	18	ρl	ρl	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	19	such	such	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	20	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	21	δ	δ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	22	ρ	ρ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	23	u	u	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	24	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	25	=	=	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	26	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	140	27	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	141	1	thus	thus	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	141	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	141	3	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	141	4	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	141	5	rewrite	rewrite	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	141	6	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	141	7	3	3	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	141	8	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	141	9	as	as	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	141	10	follows	follow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	141	11	now	now	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	141	12	let	let	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	142	1	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	142	2	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	142	3	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	143	1	[	[	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	143	2	γ	γ	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	143	3	i	i	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	143	4	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	143	5	δ	δ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	144	1	i	i	INTJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	144	2	]	]	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	144	3	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	144	4	n	n	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	144	5	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	144	6	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	144	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	144	8	dimension	dimension	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	144	9	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	144	10	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	144	11	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	2	parameters	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	5	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	6	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	7	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	8	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	9	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	10	ρ	ρ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	11	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	12	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	13	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	14	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	15	n	n	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	16	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	17	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	18	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	19	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	20	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	21	n	n	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	22	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	145	23	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	1	here	here	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	3	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	4	use	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	6	notation	notation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	7	z	z	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	8	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	9	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	10	l	l	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	11	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	12	denote	denote	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	14	sequence	sequence	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	15	z	z	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	16	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	17	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	18	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	19	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	146	20	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	147	1	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	147	2	z	z	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	147	3	l	l	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	147	4	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	1	using	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	2	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	3	notation	notation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	4	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	5	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	6	denote	denote	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	8	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	9	observations	observation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	10	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	11	y	y	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	12	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	13	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	14	n,1	n,1	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	15	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	16	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	148	17	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	149	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	149	2	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	149	3	subsequently	subsequently	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	149	4	condition	condition	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	149	5	j	j	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	149	6	o	o	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	150	1	u	u	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	151	1	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	152	1	n	n	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	152	2	a	a	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	152	3	l	l	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	152	4	p	p	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	152	5	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	152	6	e	e	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	152	7	-p	-p	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	153	1	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	153	2	o	o	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	154	1	o	o	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	1	f	f	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	2	journal	journal	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	3	pre	pre	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	4	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	5	proof	proof	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	6	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	7	y	y	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	8	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	9	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	10	n,0	n,0	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	11	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	12	initialize	initialize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	13	conditional	conditional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	14	likelihood	likelihood	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	15	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	155	16	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	1	finally	finally	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	3	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	5	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	6	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	7	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	8	y	y	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	9	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	10	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	11	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	12	easily	easily	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	13	recover	recover	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	15	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	16	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	17	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	18	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	19	as	as	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	20	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	21	conduct	conduct	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	22	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	23	inference	inference	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	24	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	25	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	26	need	need	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	27	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	28	specify	specify	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	29	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	30	prior	prior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	31	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	32	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	33	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	34	ρ	ρ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	35	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	36	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	37	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	38	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	39	n	n	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	40	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	41	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	42	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	43	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	44	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	45	n	n	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	46	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	156	47	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	2	do	do	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	3	so	so	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	4	conditional	conditional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	5	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	6	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	7	vector	vector	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	8	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	9	hyperparameters	hyperparameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	10	ξ	ξ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	11	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	12	do	do	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	13	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	14	enter	enter	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	15	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	16	likelihood	likelihood	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	17	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	157	18	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	1	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	2	prior	prior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	3	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	4	has	have	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	6	following	following	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	7	factorization	factorization	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	8	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	9	where	where	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	10	∝	∝	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	11	denotes	denote	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	12	proportionality	proportionality	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	13	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	14	f	f	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	15	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	16	•	•	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	17	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	18	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	19	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	20	indicator	indicator	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	21	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	22	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	23	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	24	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	25	use	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	26	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	27	impose	impose	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	28	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	29	following	follow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	30	sign	sign	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	31	restrictions	restriction	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	32	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	33	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	34	elements	element	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	35	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	158	36	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	1	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	2	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	4	restriction	restriction	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	5	γ	γ	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	6	1i	1i	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	7	<	<	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	8	0	0	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	9	ensures	ensure	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	10	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	12	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	13	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	14	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	15	falling	fall	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	16	over	over	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	17	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	159	18	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	1	after	after	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	3	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	4	point	point	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	6	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	7	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	8	decline	decline	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	9	decreases	decrease	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	10	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	11	δ	δ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	12	1i	1i	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	13	>	>	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	14	0	0	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	15	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	16	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	17	but	but	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	18	stays	stay	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	19	negative	negative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	20	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	21	γ	γ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	22	1i	1i	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	23	+	+	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	24	δ	δ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	25	1i	1i	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	26	<	<	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	27	0	0	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	28	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	160	29	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	2	addition	addition	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	3	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	4	assume	assume	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	5	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	7	decrease	decrease	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	8	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	10	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	11	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	12	decline	decline	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	13	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	14	associated	associate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	15	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	16	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	17	downward	downward	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	18	shift	shift	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	19	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	20	i.e.	i.e.	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	21	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	22	δ	δ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	23	0i	0i	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	24	<	<	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	25	0	0	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	26	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	27	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	28	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	29	intercept	intercept	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	30	as	as	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	31	shown	show	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	32	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	33	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	34	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	35	simulation	simulation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	161	36	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	1	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	2	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	4	presence	presence	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	5	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	7	indicator	indicator	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	8	function	function	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	9	f	f	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	10	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	11	•	•	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	12	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	14	right	right	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	15	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	16	hand	hand	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	17	side	side	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	18	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	19	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	20	8)	8)	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	21	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	22	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	23	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	24	properly	properly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	25	normalized	normalize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	26	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	162	27	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	2	view	view	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	5	indicator	indicator	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	6	function	function	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	7	f	f	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	8	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	9	•	•	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	10	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	11	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	12	define	define	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	14	re	re	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	15	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	16	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	17	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	18	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	19	given	give	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	20	ξ	ξ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	21	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	22	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	23	turn	turn	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	24	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	25	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	26	marginal	marginal	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	27	prior	prior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	28	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	29	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	30	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	31	hyperparameters	hyperparameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	32	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	33	given	give	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	34	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	35	building	build	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	36	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	37	liu	liu	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	38	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	39	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	40	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	41	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	42	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	43	use	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	44	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	45	following	follow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	46	densities	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	47	p(•	p(•	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	48	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	49	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	50	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	51	8)	8)	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	52	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	53	ρ	ρ	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	54	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	55	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	56	i	i	INTJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	57	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	58	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	59	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	60	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	61	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	62	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	63	j	j	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	64	o	o	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	65	u	u	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	66	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	67	n	n	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	68	a	a	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	69	l	l	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	70	p	p	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	71	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	72	e	e	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	73	-p	-p	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	74	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	75	o	o	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	76	o	o	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	77	f	f	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	78	thus	thus	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	79	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	80	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	81	vector	vector	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	82	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	83	hyperparameters	hyperparameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	84	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	85	ξ	ξ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	86	=	=	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	87	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	88	μ	μ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	89	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	90	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	91	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	92	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	93	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	94	b	b	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	95	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	163	96	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	164	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	164	2	decompose	decompose	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	164	3	p(ξ	p(ξ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	164	4	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	164	5	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	164	6	p(μ	p(μ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	164	7	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	164	8	σ)p(a	σ)p(a	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	164	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	164	10	b	b	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	164	11	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	164	12	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	2	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	3	p(μ	p(μ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	4	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	5	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	6	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	7	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	8	constructed	construct	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	9	as	as	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	10	follows	follow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	11	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	13	degrees	degree	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	14	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	15	freedom	freedom	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	16	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	17	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	18	inverse	inverse	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	19	wishart	wishart	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	20	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	21	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	22	set	set	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	23	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	24	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	25	matrix	matrix	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	26	w	w	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	27	0	0	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	28	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	29	constructed	construct	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	30	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	31	align	align	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	32	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	33	scale	scale	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	34	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	35	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	36	variance	variance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	37	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	38	μ	μ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	39	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	40	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	41	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	42	cross	cross	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	43	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	44	sectional	sectional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	45	variance	variance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	46	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	47	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	48	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	49	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	50	adjusting	adjust	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	51	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	52	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	53	average	average	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	54	magnitudes	magnitude	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	55	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	56	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	57	regressors	regressor	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	58	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	59	multiply	multiply	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	60	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	165	61	λ	λ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	166	1	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	166	2	elements	element	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	166	3	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	1	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	2	obtain	obtain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	4	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	5	p(a	p(a	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	6	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	7	b	b	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	8	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	10	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	11	follow	follow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	12	llera	llera	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	13	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	14	beckmann	beckmann	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	15	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	16	2016	2016	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	167	17	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	2	parameters	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	3	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	4	α	α	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	5	a	a	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	6	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	7	β	β	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	8	a	a	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	10	γ	γ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	11	a	a	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	12	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	13	α	α	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	14	b	b	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	15	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	16	β	β	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	17	b	b	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	18	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	19	need	need	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	20	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	21	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	22	chosen	choose	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	23	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	24	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	25	researcher	researcher	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	168	26	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	2	use	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	3	α	α	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	4	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	5	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	6	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	7	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	8	β	β	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	9	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	10	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	11	γ	γ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	12	a	a	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	13	=	=	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	14	α	α	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	15	b	b	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	16	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	17	β	β	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	18	b	b	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	19	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	20	0.01	0.01	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	21	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	22	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	23	specifies	specify	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	24	relatively	relatively	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	25	uninformative	uninformative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	26	priors	prior	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	27	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	28	hyperparameters	hyperparameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	29	a	a	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	30	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	31	b.	b.	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	32	posterior	posterior	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	33	inference	inference	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	34	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	35	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	36	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	37	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	38	application	application	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	39	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	40	bayes	bayes	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	41	theorem	theorem	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	169	42	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	1	let	let	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	2	p(y	p(y	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	3	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	4	:	:	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	5	n,1	n,1	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	6	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	7	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	8	|λ	|λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	9	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	10	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	11	n	n	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	12	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	13	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	14	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	15	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	16	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	17	n	n	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	18	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	19	ρ	ρ	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	20	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	21	denote	denote	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	22	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	23	likelihood	likelihood	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	24	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	25	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	26	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	27	notational	notational	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	28	convenience	convenience	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	29	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	30	dropped	drop	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	31	y	y	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	32	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	33	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	34	n,0	n,0	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	35	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	36	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	37	conditioning	conditioning	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	38	set	set	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	39	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	170	40	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	1	then	then	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	3	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	4	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	5	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	6	proportional	proportional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	7	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	8	p(ρ	p(ρ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	10	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	11	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	12	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	13	n	n	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	14	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	15	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	16	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	17	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	18	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	19	n	n	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	20	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	21	ξ|y	ξ|y	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	22	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	23	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	24	n,0	n,0	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	25	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	26	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	27	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	28	∝	∝	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	29	p(y	p(y	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	30	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	31	:	:	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	32	n,1	n,1	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	33	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	34	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	35	|λ	|λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	36	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	37	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	38	n	n	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	39	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	40	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	41	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	42	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	43	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	44	n	n	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	45	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	46	ρ)p(ρ)p	ρ)p(ρ)p	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	171	47	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	172	1	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	172	2	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	172	3	n	n	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	172	4	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	172	5	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	172	6	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	172	7	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	172	8	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	172	9	n	n	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	172	10	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	172	11	ξ	ξ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	172	12	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	172	13	j	j	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	172	14	o	o	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	173	1	u	u	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	174	1	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	175	1	n	n	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	175	2	a	a	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	175	3	l	l	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	175	4	p	p	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	175	5	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	175	6	e	e	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	175	7	-p	-p	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	176	1	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	176	2	o	o	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	177	1	o	o	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	178	1	f	f	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	178	2	journal	journal	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	178	3	pre	pre	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	178	4	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	178	5	proof	proof	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	178	6	where	where	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	178	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	178	8	prior	prior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	178	9	was	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	178	10	given	give	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	178	11	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	178	12	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	178	13	8)	8)	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	178	14	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	1	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	2	generate	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	3	draws	draw	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	4	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	6	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	7	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	8	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	9	use	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	10	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	11	gibbs	gibbs	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	12	sampler	sampler	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	13	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	14	iterates	iterate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	15	over	over	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	16	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	17	conditional	conditional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	18	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	19	distributions	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	20	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	21	gibbs	gibbs	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	22	sampler	sampler	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	23	generates	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	24	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	25	sequence	sequence	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	26	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	27	draws	draw	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	28	ρ	ρ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	29	s	s	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	30	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	31	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	32	s	s	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	33	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	34	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	35	n	n	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	36	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	37	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	38	σ	σ	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	39	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	40	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	41	:	:	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	42	n	n	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	43	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	44	s	s	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	45	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	46	ξ	ξ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	47	s	s	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	48	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	49	s	s	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	50	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	51	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	52	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	53	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	54	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	179	55	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	180	1	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	180	2	n	n	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	180	3	sim	sim	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	180	4	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	180	5	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	180	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	180	7	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	180	8	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	180	9	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	181	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	181	2	implementation	implementation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	181	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	181	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	181	5	gibbs	gibbs	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	181	6	sampler	sampler	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	181	7	closely	closely	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	181	8	follows	follow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	181	9	liu	liu	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	181	10	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	181	11	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	181	12	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	181	13	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	1	for	for	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	3	gibbs	gibbs	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	4	sampler	sampler	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	5	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	6	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	7	efficient	efficient	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	8	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	9	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	10	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	11	desirable	desirable	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	12	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	13	have	have	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	14	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	15	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	16	specification	specification	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	17	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	18	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	19	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	20	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	21	possible	possible	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	22	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	23	directly	directly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	24	sample	sample	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	25	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	26	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	27	conditional	conditional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	28	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	29	distributions	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	30	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	31	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	32	15	15	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	33	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	182	34	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	1	unfortunately	unfortunately	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	4	exact	exact	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	5	likelihood	likelihood	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	6	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	7	leads	lead	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	8	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	9	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	10	non	non	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	11	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	12	standard	standard	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	13	conditional	conditional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	14	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	15	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	16	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	17	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	18	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	19	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	20	n	n	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	21	|(y	|(y	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	22	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	23	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	24	n,0	n,0	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	25	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	26	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	27	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	28	ρ	ρ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	29	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	30	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	31	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	32	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	33	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	34	n	n	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	35	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	36	ξ	ξ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	37	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	38	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	39	γ	γ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	40	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	41	enters	enter	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	42	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	43	indicator	indicator	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	44	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	45	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	46	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	47	3	3	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	48	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	49	through	through	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	50	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	51	definition	definition	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	52	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	53	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	54	*	*	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	55	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	183	56	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	1	thus	thus	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	3	rather	rather	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	4	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	5	using	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	7	exact	exact	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	8	likelihood	likelihood	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	9	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	10	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	11	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	12	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	13	use	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	14	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	15	limited	limit	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	16	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	17	information	information	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	18	likelihood	likelihood	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	19	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	20	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	21	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	22	form	form	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	23	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	24	densities	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	25	p	p	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	26	l	l	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	27	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	28	y	y	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	29	i,1	i,1	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	30	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	31	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	32	|λ	|λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	33	i	i	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	34	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	35	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	36	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	37	i	i	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	38	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	39	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	40	constructed	construct	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	41	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	42	follows	follow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	184	43	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	1	let	let	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	2	δ	δ	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	3	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	4	some	some	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	5	positive	positive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	6	number	number	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	7	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	8	e.g.	e.g.	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	10	three	three	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	11	or	or	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	12	five	five	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	13	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	14	periods	period	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	185	15	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	186	1	given	give	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	186	2	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	186	3	sample	sample	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	186	4	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	186	5	y	y	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	186	6	i,1	i,1	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	186	7	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	186	8	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	186	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	186	10	ln	ln	INTJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	186	11	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	186	12	i,1	i,1	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	187	1	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	1	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	2	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	3	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	4	define	define	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	5	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	7	other	other	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	8	hand	hand	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	10	if	if	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	11	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	12	i	i	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	13	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	14	max	max	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	15	<	<	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	16	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	17	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	18	then	then	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	19	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	20	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	21	likely	likely	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	22	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	23	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	24	*	*	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	25	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	26	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	27	i	i	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	28	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	29	max	max	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	188	30	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	1	thus	thus	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	3	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	4	distinguish	distinguish	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	5	two	two	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	6	cases	case	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	7	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	8	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	9	δ	δ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	10	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	11	does	do	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	12	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	13	enter	enter	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	15	likelihood	likelihood	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	16	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	17	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	18	its	its	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	19	posterior	posterior	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	20	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	21	p(δ	p(δ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	189	22	j	j	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	190	1	o	o	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	191	1	u	u	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	192	1	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	193	1	n	n	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	193	2	a	a	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	193	3	l	l	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	193	4	p	p	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	193	5	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	193	6	e	e	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	193	7	-p	-p	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	194	1	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	194	2	o	o	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	195	1	o	o	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	196	1	f	f	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	197	1	now	now	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	197	2	δ	δ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	1	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	2	does	do	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	3	enter	enter	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	5	likelihood	likelihood	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	6	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	7	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	8	its	its	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	9	prior	prior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	10	gets	get	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	11	updated	update	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	12	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	13	view	view	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	14	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	15	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	16	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	198	17	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	199	1	bayesian	bayesian	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	199	2	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	199	3	reflect	reflect	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	199	4	parameter	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	199	5	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	199	6	shock	shock	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	199	7	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	199	8	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	2	simulate	simulate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	3	trajectories	trajectory	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	5	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	6	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	7	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	8	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	10	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	11	predictive	predictive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	12	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	13	using	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	15	algorithm	algorithm	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	16	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	200	17	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	2	simulated	simulated	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	3	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	4	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	5	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	6	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	7	converted	convert	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	8	into	into	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	9	simulated	simulated	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	10	trajectories	trajectory	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	11	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	12	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	13	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	14	using	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	15	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	16	7	7	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	17	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	201	18	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	1	algorithm	algorithm	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	2	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	3	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	4	simulating	simulate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	5	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	7	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	8	predictive	predictive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	9	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	10	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	11	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	12	.	.	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	13	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	14	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	15	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	16	simulated	simulated	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	17	paths	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	18	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	19	s	s	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	20	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	21	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	22	n	n	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	23	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	24	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	25	+1	+1	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	26	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	27	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	28	+	+	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	29	h	h	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	30	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	31	s	s	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	32	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	33	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	34	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	35	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	36	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	202	37	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	1	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	2	n	n	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	3	sim	sim	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	4	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	5	compute	compute	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	6	point	point	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	7	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	8	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	10	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	11	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	12	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	13	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	14	each	each	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	15	period	period	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	16	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	17	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	18	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	19	+	+	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	20	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	21	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	22	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	23	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	203	24	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	204	1	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	204	2	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	204	3	+	+	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	204	4	h.	h.	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	2	now	now	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	3	conduct	conduct	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	4	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	5	small	small	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	6	monte	monte	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	7	carlo	carlo	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	8	experiment	experiment	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	9	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	10	compares	compare	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	12	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	13	derived	derive	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	14	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	15	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	16	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	17	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	18	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	19	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	20	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	21	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	22	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	23	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	24	generated	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	25	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	26	each	each	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	27	location	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	28	separately	separately	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	205	29	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	2	experiment	experiment	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	3	shows	show	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	4	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	5	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	6	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	7	environment	environment	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	8	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	9	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	10	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	11	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	12	experience	experience	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	13	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	14	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	15	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	16	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	17	later	later	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	18	point	point	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	19	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	20	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	21	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	22	more	more	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	23	accurate	accurate	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	24	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	25	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	26	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	27	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	28	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	29	have	have	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	30	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	31	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	32	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	33	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	34	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	35	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	36	outbreaks	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	37	facilitate	facilitate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	38	learning	learn	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	39	about	about	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	40	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	41	re	re	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	42	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	43	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	44	benefits	benefit	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	45	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	46	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	47	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	48	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	49	remaining	remain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	50	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	206	51	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	2	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	3	generating	generating	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	4	process	process	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	5	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	6	dgp	dgp	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	7	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	8	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	9	described	describe	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	10	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	11	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	12	4.1	4.1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	13	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	15	results	result	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	16	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	17	summarized	summarize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	18	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	19	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	20	4.2	4.2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	207	21	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	208	1	j	j	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	208	2	o	o	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	209	1	u	u	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	209	2	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	210	1	n	n	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	210	2	a	a	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	210	3	l	l	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	210	4	p	p	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	210	5	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	210	6	e	e	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	210	7	-p	-p	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	211	1	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	211	2	o	o	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	212	1	o	o	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	212	2	f	f	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	212	3	heterogeneous	heterogeneous	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	212	4	coefficients	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	212	5	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	212	6	initial	initial	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	212	7	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	212	8	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	212	9	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	1	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	2	i0	i0	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	3	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	4	101	101	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	5	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	6	all	all	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	7	i.	i.	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	9	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	10	generating	generating	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	11	process	process	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	12	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	13	dgp	dgp	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	14	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	15	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	16	given	give	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	17	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	19	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	20	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	21	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	22	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	23	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	24	3	3	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	25	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	26	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	27	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	28	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	29	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	30	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	31	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	213	32	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	3	simulation	simulation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	4	experiment	experiment	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	5	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	6	assume	assume	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	7	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	9	innovations	innovation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	10	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	11	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	12	homoskedastic	homoskedastic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	13	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	14	i.e.	i.e.	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	15	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	16	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	17	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	18	i	i	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	19	=	=	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	20	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	21	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	22	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	23	all	all	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	24	i.	i.	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	25	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	26	dgp	dgp	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	27	matches	match	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	28	certain	certain	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	29	aspects	aspect	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	30	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	31	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	32	empirical	empirical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	33	application	application	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	34	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	35	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	36	5	5	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	37	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	38	but	but	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	39	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	40	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	41	more	more	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	42	stylized	stylize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	43	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	44	other	other	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	45	dimensions	dimension	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	214	46	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	215	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	215	2	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	215	3	period	period	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	215	4	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	215	5	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	215	6	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	215	7	day	day	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	215	8	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	216	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	216	2	number	number	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	216	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	216	4	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	216	5	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	216	6	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	216	7	simulation	simulation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	216	8	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	216	9	n	n	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	216	10	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	216	11	150	150	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	216	12	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	2	split	split	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	4	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	5	into	into	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	6	two	two	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	7	groups	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	8	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	9	n	n	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	10	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	11	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	12	75	75	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	13	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	14	experience	experience	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	15	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	16	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	17	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	18	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	19	starting	start	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	20	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	21	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	22	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	23	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	24	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	25	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	26	n	n	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	27	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	28	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	29	75	75	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	30	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	31	experience	experience	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	32	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	33	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	34	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	35	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	36	starting	start	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	37	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	38	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	39	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	40	56	56	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	217	41	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	218	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	218	2	refer	refer	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	218	3	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	218	4	these	these	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	218	5	groups	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	218	6	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	218	7	"	"	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	218	8	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	218	9	"	"	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	218	10	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	218	11	"	"	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	218	12	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	218	13	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	218	14	"	"	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	219	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	219	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	219	3	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	219	4	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	219	5	calendar	calendar	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	219	6	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	219	7	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	219	8	event	event	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	219	9	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	219	10	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	219	11	identical	identical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	219	12	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	3	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	4	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	5	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	7	event	event	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	8	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	9	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	10	calendar	calendar	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	11	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	12	minus	minus	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	13	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	14	δ	δ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	15	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	16	56	56	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	17	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	18	8	8	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	19	weeks	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	20	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	220	21	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	221	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	221	2	parameters	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	221	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	221	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	221	5	dgp	dgp	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	221	6	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	221	7	summarized	summarize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	221	8	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	221	9	table	table	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	221	10	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	221	11	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	222	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	222	2	persistence	persistence	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	222	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	222	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	222	5	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	222	6	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	222	7	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	222	8	set	set	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	222	9	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	222	10	ρ	ρ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	222	11	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	222	12	0.8	0.8	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	222	13	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	223	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	223	2	dispersion	dispersion	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	223	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	223	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	223	5	parameters	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	223	6	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	1	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	2	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	3	controlled	control	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	4	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	5	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	6	vector	vector	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	7	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	8	means	mean	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	10	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	11	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	12	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	13	covariance	covariance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	14	matrix	matrix	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	15	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	224	16	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	1	both	both	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	2	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	3	calibrated	calibrate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	4	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	5	match	match	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	6	some	some	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	7	stylized	stylize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	8	facts	fact	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	9	about	about	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	10	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	11	cross	cross	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	12	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	13	sectional	sectional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	14	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	15	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	16	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	17	country	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	18	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	19	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	20	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	21	used	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	22	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	23	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	24	5	5	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	225	25	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	226	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	226	2	then	then	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	226	3	draw	draw	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	226	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	226	5	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	227	1	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	227	2	s	s	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	227	3	independently	independently	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	227	4	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	227	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	227	6	n	n	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	227	7	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	227	8	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	227	9	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	227	10	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	227	11	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	227	12	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	227	13	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	2	innovation	innovation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	3	variance	variance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	4	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	5	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	6	corresponds	correspond	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	7	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	8	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	9	high	high	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	10	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	11	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	12	value	value	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	13	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	15	estimated	estimate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	16	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	17	σ	σ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	18	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	19	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	20	∼	∼	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	21	ig(a	ig(a	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	22	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	23	b	b	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	24	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	228	25	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	2	assume	assume	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	3	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	5	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	6	starts	start	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	7	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	8	each	each	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	9	geographical	geographical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	10	location	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	11	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	12	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	13	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	14	i0	i0	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	15	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	16	101	101	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	229	17	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	1	there	there	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	2	is	be	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	3	also	also	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	4	heterogeneity	heterogeneity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	5	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	7	timing	timing	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	8	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	10	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	11	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	12	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	13	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	14	illustrated	illustrate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	15	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	16	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	17	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	230	18	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	2	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	3	shows	show	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	5	percentage	percentage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	6	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	7	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	8	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	9	have	have	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	10	peaked	peak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	11	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	12	or	or	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	13	prior	prior	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	14	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	15	period	period	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	16	t.	t.	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	17	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	18	construction	construction	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	19	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	20	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	21	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	22	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	23	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	24	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	25	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	26	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	27	tend	tend	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	28	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	29	peak	peak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	30	sooner	soon	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	31	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	32	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	33	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	34	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	35	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	36	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	37	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	231	38	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	1	however	however	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	4	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	5	dates	date	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	6	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	7	each	each	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	8	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	9	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	10	quite	quite	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	11	dispersed	disperse	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	12	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	13	only	only	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	14	20	20	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	15	%	%	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	16	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	17	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	18	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	19	have	have	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	20	peaked	peak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	21	after	after	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	22	60	60	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	23	days	day	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	232	24	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	233	1	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	233	2	takes	take	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	233	3	more	more	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	233	4	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	233	5	100	100	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	233	6	days	day	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	233	7	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	233	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	233	9	remaining	remain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	233	10	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	233	11	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	233	12	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	233	13	peak	peak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	233	14	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	234	1	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	234	2	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	234	3	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	2	report	report	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	3	results	result	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	4	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	5	two	two	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	6	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	7	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	8	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	9	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	10	i	i	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	11	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	13	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	14	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	15	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	16	evaluation	evaluation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	235	17	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	1	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	2	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	4	exponential	exponential	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	5	transformation	transformation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	6	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	7	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	8	7	7	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	9	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	10	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	11	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	12	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	13	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	14	levels	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	15	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	16	there	there	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	17	is	be	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	18	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	19	large	large	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	20	degree	degree	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	21	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	22	cross	cross	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	23	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	24	sectional	sectional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	25	heterogeneity	heterogeneity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	26	among	among	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	27	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	28	levels	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	29	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	30	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	236	31	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	1	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	2	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	3	larger	large	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	4	numbers	number	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	5	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	6	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	7	tend	tend	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	8	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	9	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	10	associated	associate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	11	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	12	larger	large	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	13	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	14	errors	error	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	237	15	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	1	if	if	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	2	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	3	simply	simply	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	4	average	average	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	5	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	6	errors	error	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	7	or	or	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	8	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	9	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	10	lengths	length	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	11	across	across	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	12	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	13	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	15	results	result	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	16	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	17	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	18	driven	drive	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	19	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	20	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	21	few	few	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	22	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	23	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	24	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	25	high	high	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	26	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	27	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	28	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	238	29	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	1	therefore	therefore	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	3	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	4	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	5	standardizing	standardize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	6	all	all	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	7	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	8	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	9	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	10	evaluation	evaluation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	11	statistics	statistic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	12	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	14	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	15	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	16	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	17	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	19	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	20	origin	origin	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	21	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	22	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	23	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	24	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	25	i.e.	i.e.	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	26	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	27	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	28	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	29	reporting	report	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	30	results	result	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	31	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	32	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	33	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	34	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	35	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	36	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	239	37	+	+	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	240	1	h	h	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	240	2	/i	/i	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	241	1	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	241	2	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	242	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	242	2	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	242	3	report	report	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	242	4	measures	measure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	242	5	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	242	6	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	242	7	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	242	8	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	242	9	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	242	10	performance	performance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	242	11	below	below	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	242	12	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	2	do	do	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	3	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	4	consider	consider	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	5	point	point	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	6	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	7	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	8	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	9	strongly	strongly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	10	believe	believe	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	11	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	12	due	due	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	13	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	15	highly	highly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	16	uncertain	uncertain	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	17	path	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	18	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	19	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	20	during	during	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	21	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	22	pandemic	pandemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	23	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	24	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	25	essential	essential	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	26	for	for	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	27	forecasters	forecaster	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	28	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	29	report	report	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	30	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	31	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	32	convey	convey	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	33	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	34	degree	degree	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	35	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	36	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	37	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	38	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	39	predictive	predictive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	40	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	243	41	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	2	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	3	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	4	performance	performance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	5	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	6	evaluated	evaluate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	7	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	8	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	9	continuous	continuous	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	10	ranked	rank	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	11	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	12	scores	score	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	13	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	14	crps	crps	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	15	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	244	16	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	2	crps	crp	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	3	measures	measure	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	5	l	l	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	6	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	7	distance	distance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	8	between	between	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	10	cumulative	cumulative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	11	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	12	functionf	functionf	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	13	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	14	+	+	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	15	h|t	h|t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	16	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	17	x	x	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	18	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	19	associated	associate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	20	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	21	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	22	predictive	predictive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	23	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	24	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	25	location	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	26	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	27	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	28	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	29	origin	origin	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	30	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	31	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	32	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	33	perfect	perfect	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	34	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	35	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	36	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	37	assigns	assign	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	38	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	39	one	one	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	40	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	41	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	42	realized	realize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	43	x	x	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	44	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	45	+	+	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	46	h	h	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	47	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	48	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	49	crps	crp	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	50	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	51	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	52	proper	proper	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	53	scoring	scoring	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	54	rule	rule	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	55	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	56	meaning	mean	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	57	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	58	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	59	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	60	optimal	optimal	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	61	for	for	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	62	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	63	forecaster	forecaster	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	64	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	65	truthfully	truthfully	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	66	reveal	reveal	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	67	her	her	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	68	predictive	predictive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	69	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	245	70	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	246	1	here	here	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	247	1	x	x	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	1	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	2	+	+	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	3	h	h	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	4	could	could	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	5	either	either	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	6	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	7	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	8	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	9	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	10	y	y	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	11	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	12	+	+	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	13	h	h	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	14	or	or	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	15	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	16	relative	relative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	17	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	18	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	19	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	248	20	+	+	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	249	1	h	h	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	249	2	/i	/i	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	249	3	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	249	4	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	2	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	3	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	4	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	5	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	6	report	report	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	8	cross	cross	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	9	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	10	sectional	sectional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	11	coverage	coverage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	12	frequency	frequency	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	13	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	15	average	average	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	16	length	length	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	17	separately	separately	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	250	18	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	1	as	as	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	2	discussed	discuss	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	3	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	4	more	more	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	5	detail	detail	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	6	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	7	askanazi	askanazi	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	8	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	9	diebold	diebold	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	10	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	11	schorfheide	schorfheide	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	12	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	13	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	14	shin	shin	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	15	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	16	begin	begin	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	17	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	19	top	top	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	20	left	left	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	21	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	22	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	23	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	24	3	3	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	251	25	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	2	most	most	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	3	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	4	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	5	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	6	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	7	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	9	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	10	tend	tend	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	11	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	12	peak	peak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	13	between	between	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	15	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	16	origin	origin	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	17	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	18	=	=	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	19	63	63	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	20	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	21	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	22	four	four	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	23	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	24	week	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	25	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	26	ahead	ahead	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	27	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	28	target	target	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	29	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	30	+	+	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	31	h	h	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	32	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	33	91	91	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	252	34	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	3	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	4	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	5	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	6	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	7	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	9	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	10	occurs	occur	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	11	after	after	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	13	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	14	target	target	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	15	date	date	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	253	16	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	254	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	254	2	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	254	3	=	=	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	254	4	63	63	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	254	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	254	6	three	three	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	254	7	important	important	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	254	8	findings	finding	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	254	9	emerge	emerge	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	254	10	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	255	1	first	first	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	255	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	255	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	255	4	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	255	5	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	255	6	clearly	clearly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	255	7	dominate	dominate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	255	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	255	9	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	255	10	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	255	11	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	255	12	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	255	13	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	256	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	256	2	discrepancy	discrepancy	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	256	3	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	256	4	particularly	particularly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	256	5	large	large	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	256	6	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	256	7	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	256	8	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	256	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	256	10	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	256	11	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	256	12	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	1	second	second	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	3	while	while	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	4	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	6	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	7	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	9	crps	crp	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	10	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	11	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	13	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	14	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	15	seem	seem	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	16	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	17	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	18	unrelated	unrelated	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	19	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	20	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	21	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	22	date	date	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	23	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	24	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	25	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	26	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	27	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	28	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	29	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	30	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	31	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	32	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	33	substantially	substantially	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	34	worse	bad	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	35	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	36	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	37	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	38	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	39	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	40	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	41	peak	peak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	42	between	between	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	43	periods	period	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	44	63	63	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	45	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	46	91	91	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	47	than	than	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	48	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	49	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	50	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	51	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	52	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	53	peak	peak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	54	prior	prior	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	55	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	56	period	period	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	57	63	63	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	257	58	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	1	third	third	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	4	four	four	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	5	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	6	week	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	7	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	8	ahead	ahead	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	9	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	10	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	11	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	13	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	14	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	15	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	16	much	much	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	17	more	more	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	18	accurate	accurate	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	19	than	than	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	20	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	21	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	22	forecasts	forecast	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	23	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	24	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	25	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	26	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	258	27	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	259	1	these	these	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	259	2	findings	finding	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	259	3	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	259	4	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	259	5	explained	explain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	259	6	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	259	7	follows	follow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	259	8	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	1	first	first	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	3	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	4	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	5	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	6	setting	setting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	7	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	9	experience	experience	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	10	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	12	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	13	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	14	allows	allow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	15	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	16	relatively	relatively	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	17	precise	precise	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	18	inference	inference	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	19	about	about	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	20	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	21	re	re	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	22	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	23	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	24	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	25	then	then	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	26	sharpens	sharpen	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	27	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	28	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	29	inference	inference	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	30	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	31	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	32	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	33	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	34	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	35	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	36	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	37	about	about	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	38	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	39	prior	prior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	40	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	41	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	42	reduced	reduce	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	260	43	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	1	note	note	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	2	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	4	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	5	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	6	dimension	dimension	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	7	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	9	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	10	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	11	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	12	only	only	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	13	7	7	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	14	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	15	second	second	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	16	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	17	due	due	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	18	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	19	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	20	structural	structural	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	21	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	22	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	23	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	24	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	25	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	26	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	27	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	28	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	29	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	30	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	31	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	32	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	33	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	34	very	very	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	35	difficult	difficult	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	36	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	37	predict	predict	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	38	how	how	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	39	quickly	quickly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	40	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	41	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	42	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	43	die	die	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	44	out	out	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	45	after	after	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	46	they	they	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	47	have	have	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	48	peaked	peak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	261	49	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	1	this	this	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	2	makes	make	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	3	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	4	easier	easy	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	5	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	6	predict	predict	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	7	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	8	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	10	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	11	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	12	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	13	includes	include	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	15	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	16	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	17	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	18	still	still	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	19	far	far	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	20	away	away	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	21	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	22	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	23	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	24	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	25	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	26	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	27	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	28	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	29	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	30	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	31	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	32	levels	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	33	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	34	relatively	relatively	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	35	close	close	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	36	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	37	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	38	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	262	39	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	2	top	top	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	3	right	right	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	4	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	5	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	6	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	7	3	3	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	8	indicates	indicate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	9	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	10	after	after	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	11	18	18	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	12	weeks	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	13	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	14	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	15	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	16	126	126	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	17	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	19	benefit	benefit	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	20	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	21	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	22	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	23	approach	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	24	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	25	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	26	lot	lot	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	27	smaller	small	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	28	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	29	both	both	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	30	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	31	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	32	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	33	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	34	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	35	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	36	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	37	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	263	38	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	1	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	2	more	more	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	3	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	4	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	5	information	information	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	6	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	7	available	available	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	8	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	9	estimate	estimate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	10	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	11	location	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	12	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	13	specific	specific	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	14	parameters	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	15	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	16	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	17	benefit	benefit	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	18	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	19	using	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	20	prior	prior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	21	information	information	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	22	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	23	significantly	significantly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	24	diminished	diminish	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	264	25	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	2	bottom	bottom	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	3	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	6	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	7	shows	show	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	8	crps	crp	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	9	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	10	levels	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	11	rather	rather	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	12	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	13	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	14	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	265	15	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	2	key	key	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	3	message	message	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	4	remains	remain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	6	same	same	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	7	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	8	early	early	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	9	on	on	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	10	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	12	pandemic	pandemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	13	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	15	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	16	approach	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	17	substantially	substantially	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	18	improves	improve	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	19	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	20	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	21	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	22	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	23	experience	experience	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	24	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	25	delayed	delay	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	26	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	27	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	28	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	29	there	there	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	30	is	be	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	31	some	some	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	32	learning	learning	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	33	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	34	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	35	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	36	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	37	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	38	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	39	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	40	occurred	occur	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	41	early	early	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	42	on	on	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	266	43	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	2	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	3	4	4	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	4	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	5	plot	plot	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	7	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	8	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	9	specific	specific	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	10	average	average	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	11	crps	crp	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	12	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	13	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	14	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	15	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	16	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	17	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	18	origin	origin	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	19	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	20	similar	similar	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	21	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	22	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	23	messages	message	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	24	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	25	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	26	3	3	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	27	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	28	but	but	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	29	now	now	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	30	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	31	results	result	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	32	span	span	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	33	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	34	broad	broad	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	35	range	range	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	36	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	37	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	38	origins	origin	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	267	39	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	1	first	first	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	4	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	5	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	6	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	7	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	8	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	9	least	least	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	10	weakly	weakly	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	11	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	12	more	more	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	13	accurate	accurate	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	14	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	15	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	16	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	17	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	18	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	19	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	268	20	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	1	however	however	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	4	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	5	differential	differential	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	6	vanishes	vanish	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	7	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	9	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	10	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	11	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	12	dimension	dimension	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	13	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	15	estimation	estimation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	16	sample	sample	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	17	increases	increase	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	18	over	over	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	19	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	269	20	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	1	second	second	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	4	benefit	benefit	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	5	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	6	using	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	7	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	8	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	9	approach	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	10	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	11	more	more	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	12	pronounced	pronounced	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	13	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	15	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	16	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	17	experience	experience	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	18	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	19	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	20	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	21	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	22	those	those	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	23	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	24	experience	experience	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	25	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	26	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	27	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	270	28	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	271	1	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	271	2	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	271	3	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	271	4	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	1	finally	finally	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	3	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	4	report	report	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	5	results	result	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	6	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	8	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	9	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	10	performance	performance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	11	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	12	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	13	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	14	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	15	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	16	levels	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	17	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	18	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	19	5	5	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	272	20	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	2	apply	apply	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	4	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	5	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	6	techniques	technique	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	7	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	8	country	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	9	/	/	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	10	region	region	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	11	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	12	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	13	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	14	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	15	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	16	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	17	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	273	18	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	274	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	274	2	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	274	3	set	set	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	274	4	used	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	274	5	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	274	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	274	7	empirical	empirical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	274	8	analysis	analysis	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	274	9	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	274	10	described	describe	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	274	11	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	274	12	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	274	13	5.1	5.1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	274	14	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	2	discuss	discuss	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	4	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	5	estimates	estimate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	6	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	7	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	9	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	10	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	11	04	04	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	12	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	13	18	18	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	14	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	15	origin	origin	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	16	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	17	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	18	5.2	5.2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	275	19	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	276	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	276	2	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	276	3	5	5	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	276	4	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	277	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	277	2	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	277	3	set	set	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	277	4	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	277	5	obtained	obtain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	277	6	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	277	7	csse	csse	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	277	8	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	277	9	johns	johns	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	277	10	hopkins	hopkins	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	277	11	university	university	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	277	12	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	1	4	4	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	2	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	3	define	define	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	5	total	total	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	6	number	number	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	7	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	8	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	9	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	10	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	11	location	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	12	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	13	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	14	period	period	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	15	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	16	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	17	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	18	number	number	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	19	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	20	confirmed	confirm	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	21	cases	case	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	22	minus	minus	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	23	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	24	number	number	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	25	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	26	recovered	recover	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	27	cases	case	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	28	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	29	deaths	death	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	278	30	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	279	1	throughout	throughout	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	279	2	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	279	3	study	study	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	279	4	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	279	5	use	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	279	6	country	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	279	7	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	279	8	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	279	9	aggregates	aggregate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	279	10	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	280	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	280	2	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	280	3	period	period	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	280	4	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	280	5	corresponds	correspond	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	280	6	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	280	7	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	280	8	day	day	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	1	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	2	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	3	fit	fit	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	4	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	5	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	6	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	7	one	one	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	8	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	9	sided	side	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	10	three	three	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	11	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	12	day	day	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	13	rolling	roll	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	14	averages	average	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	15	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	16	smooth	smooth	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	17	out	out	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	18	noise	noise	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	19	generate	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	20	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	21	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	22	timing	timing	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	23	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	24	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	25	reporting	reporting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	281	26	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	2	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	3	slight	slight	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	4	abuse	abuse	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	5	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	6	notation	notation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	7	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	9	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	10	subscript	subscript	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	11	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	12	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	13	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	14	3	3	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	15	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	16	before	before	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	17	discussing	discuss	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	19	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	20	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	21	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	22	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	23	examine	examine	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	24	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	25	parameter	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	26	estimates	estimate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	27	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	28	one	one	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	29	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	30	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	31	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	32	samples	sample	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	33	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	34	namely	namely	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	35	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	36	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	37	04	04	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	38	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	39	18	18	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	282	40	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	283	1	heterogeneous	heterogeneous	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	283	2	slope	slope	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	283	3	coefficients	coefficient	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	283	4	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	1	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	2	gibbs	gibbs	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	3	sampler	sampler	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	4	generates	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	5	draws	draw	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	6	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	8	joint	joint	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	9	posterior	posterior	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	10	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	11	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	12	ρ	ρ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	13	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	14	λ	λ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	15	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	16	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	17	n	n	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	18	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	19	σ	σ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	20	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	21	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	22	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	23	n	n	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	24	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	25	ξ)|y	ξ)|y	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	26	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	27	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	28	n,0	n,0	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	29	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	30	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	284	31	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	2	begin	begin	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	3	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	4	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	5	discussion	discussion	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	6	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	8	estimates	estimate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	9	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	10	γ	γ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	11	1i	1i	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	12	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	13	δ	δ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	14	1i	1i	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	15	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	16	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	17	affect	affect	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	19	speed	speed	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	20	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	21	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	22	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	23	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	24	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	25	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	26	expected	expect	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	27	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	28	change	change	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	29	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	30	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	31	daily	daily	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	32	basis	basis	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	285	33	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	1	γ	γ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	2	1i	1i	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	3	measures	measure	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	5	average	average	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	6	daily	daily	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	7	decline	decline	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	8	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	10	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	11	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	12	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	13	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	14	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	286	15	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	2	instance	instance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	3	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	4	suppose	suppose	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	5	the	the	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	6	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	8	beginning	beginning	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	9	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	10	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	11	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	12	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	13	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	14	event	event	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	15	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	16	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	17	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	18	0	0	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	19	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	20	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	21	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	22	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	23	ln(i	ln(i	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	24	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	287	25	/i	/i	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	288	1	t−1	t−1	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	288	2	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	289	1	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	289	2	0.2	0.2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	289	3	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	289	4	i.e.	i.e.	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	289	5	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	289	6	approximately	approximately	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	289	7	20	20	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	289	8	%	%	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	289	9	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	1	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	2	value	value	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	4	γ	γ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	5	1i	1i	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	6	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	7	−0.02	−0.02	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	8	implies	imply	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	9	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	10	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	11	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	12	average	average	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	13	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	15	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	16	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	17	declines	decline	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	18	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	19	0.02	0.02	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	20	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	21	meaning	mean	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	22	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	23	after	after	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	24	10	10	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	25	days	day	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	26	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	27	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	28	expected	expect	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	29	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	30	reach	reach	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	31	zero	zero	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	32	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	33	turn	turn	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	34	negative	negative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	35	subsequently	subsequently	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	290	36	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	1	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	2	positive	positive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	3	value	value	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	5	δ	δ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	6	1i	1i	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	7	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	8	0.01	0.01	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	9	implies	imply	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	10	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	11	after	after	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	13	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	14	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	15	becomes	become	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	16	negative	negative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	17	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	18	its	its	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	19	decline	decline	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	20	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	21	reduced	reduce	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	22	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	23	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	24	absolute	absolute	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	25	value	value	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	26	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	27	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	28	γ	γ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	29	1i	1i	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	30	+	+	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	31	δ	δ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	32	1i	1i	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	33	=	=	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	34	−0.01	−0.01	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	291	35	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	292	1	peaked	peaked	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	292	2	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	292	3	take	take	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	292	4	considerably	considerably	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	292	5	longer	long	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	292	6	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	292	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	292	8	rise	rise	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	292	9	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	292	10	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	292	11	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	292	12	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	293	1	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	293	2	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	1	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	2	important	important	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	3	component	component	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	5	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	6	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	7	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	9	re	re	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	10	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	11	π(λ	π(λ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	12	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	13	|ξ	|ξ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	14	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	15	defined	define	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	16	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	17	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	18	9	9	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	19	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	294	20	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	1	prior	prior	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	2	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	3	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	4	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	5	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	6	respect	respect	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	7	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	9	hyperparameters	hyperparameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	10	ξ	ξ	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	11	generate	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	12	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	13	about	about	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	15	re	re	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	16	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	295	17	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	3	remaining	remain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	4	panels	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	5	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	6	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	7	6	6	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	8	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	9	plot	plot	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	10	draw	draw	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	11	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	13	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	14	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	15	center	center	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	16	column	column	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	17	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	18	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	19	prior	prior	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	20	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	21	right	right	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	22	column	column	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	23	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	24	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	25	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	26	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	27	re	re	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	28	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	29	π(λ	π(λ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	30	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	31	|ξ	|ξ	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	32	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	296	33	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	297	1	each	each	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	297	2	draw	draw	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	297	3	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	297	4	represented	represent	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	297	5	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	297	6	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	297	7	hairline	hairline	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	297	8	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	1	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	3	normalization	normalization	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	4	constant	constant	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	5	c(ξ	c(ξ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	6	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	7	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	8	π(λ	π(λ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	9	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	10	|ξ	|ξ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	11	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	12	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	13	difficult	difficult	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	14	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	15	compute	compute	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	16	due	due	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	17	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	19	truncation	truncation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	20	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	21	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	22	joint	joint	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	23	normal	normal	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	24	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	25	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	26	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	27	show	show	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	28	kernel	kernel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	29	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	30	estimates	estimate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	31	obtained	obtain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	32	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	33	draws	draw	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	34	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	35	π(λ	π(λ	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	36	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	37	|ξ	|ξ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	38	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	298	39	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	299	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	299	2	now	now	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	299	3	turn	turn	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	299	4	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	299	5	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	299	6	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	299	7	generated	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	299	8	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	299	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	299	10	estimated	estimate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	299	11	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	299	12	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	299	13	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	299	14	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	300	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	300	2	now	now	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	300	3	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	300	4	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	300	5	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	300	6	focus	focus	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	300	7	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	300	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	300	9	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	300	10	stage	stage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	300	11	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	300	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	300	13	pandemic	pandemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	300	14	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	2	use	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	3	algorithm	algorithm	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	4	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	5	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	6	simulate	simulate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	7	trajectories	trajectory	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	8	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	9	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	10	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	11	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	12	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	13	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	14	conditional	conditional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	15	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	16	observations	observation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	17	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	19	initial	initial	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	20	levels	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	21	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	22	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	23	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	24	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	25	convert	convert	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	26	into	into	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	27	stocks	stock	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	28	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	29	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	30	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	301	31	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	302	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	302	2	each	each	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	302	3	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	302	4	horizon	horizon	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	302	5	h	h	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	302	6	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	302	7	use	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	302	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	302	9	values	value	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	302	10	y	y	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	302	11	s	s	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	302	12	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	303	1	+	+	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	303	2	h	h	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	304	1	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	304	2	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	304	3	s	s	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	304	4	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	304	5	+	+	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	305	1	h	h	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	305	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	305	3	s	s	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	305	4	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	305	5	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	305	6	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	305	7	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	305	8	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	305	9	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	306	1	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	306	2	n	n	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	306	3	sim	sim	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	306	4	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	306	5	approximate	approximate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	306	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	306	7	predictive	predictive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	306	8	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	306	9	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	307	1	strictly	strictly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	307	2	speaking	speak	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	307	3	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	307	4	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	307	5	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	307	6	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	307	7	reporting	report	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	307	8	complete	complete	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	307	9	predictive	predictive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	307	10	densities	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	307	11	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	1	instead	instead	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	3	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	4	plot	plot	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	5	medians	median	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	6	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	7	construct	construct	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	8	equal	equal	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	9	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	10	tail	tail	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	11	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	12	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	13	bands	band	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	14	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	15	capture	capture	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	16	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	17	range	range	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	18	between	between	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	19	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	20	20	20	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	21	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	22	80	80	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	23	%	%	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	24	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	25	10	10	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	26	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	27	90	90	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	28	%	%	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	29	quantiles	quantile	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	308	30	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	309	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	309	2	wider	wide	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	309	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	309	4	bands	band	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	309	5	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	309	6	the	the	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	309	7	greater	great	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	309	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	309	9	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	309	10	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	310	1	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	310	2	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	2	path	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	4	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	5	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	6	broadly	broadly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	7	resembles	resemble	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	9	paths	path	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	10	simulated	simulate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	11	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	13	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	14	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	15	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	16	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	17	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	311	18	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	2	rise	rise	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	3	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	4	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	5	during	during	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	7	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	8	tends	tend	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	9	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	10	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	11	faster	fast	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	12	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	14	subsequent	subsequent	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	15	decline	decline	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	16	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	17	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	18	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	19	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	20	feature	feature	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	21	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	22	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	23	captured	capture	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	24	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	25	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	26	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	27	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	28	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	29	conditional	conditional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	30	mean	mean	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	31	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	32	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	33	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	34	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	35	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	36	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	37	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	38	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	39	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	40	y	y	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	41	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	42	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	43	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	44	3	3	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	45	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	312	46	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	2	difference	difference	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	3	between	between	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	5	bands	band	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	6	depicted	depict	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	7	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	9	second	second	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	10	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	11	third	third	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	12	rows	row	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	13	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	14	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	15	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	16	former	former	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	17	reflects	reflect	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	18	parameter	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	19	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	20	only	only	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	21	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	22	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	23	set	set	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	24	future	future	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	25	shocks	shock	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	26	equal	equal	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	27	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	28	zero	zero	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	29	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	30	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	31	whereas	whereas	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	32	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	33	latter	latter	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	34	reflects	reflect	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	35	parameter	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	36	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	37	shock	shock	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	38	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	313	39	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	3	case	case	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	5	germany	germany	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	6	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	7	shock	shock	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	8	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	9	increases	increase	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	10	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	11	width	width	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	12	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	14	bands	band	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	15	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	16	approximately	approximately	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	17	30	30	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	18	%	%	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	314	19	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	1	due	due	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	2	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	4	exponential	exponential	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	5	transformation	transformation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	6	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	7	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	8	used	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	9	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	10	recover	recover	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	12	levels	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	13	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	15	predictive	predictive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	16	densities	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	17	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	18	highly	highly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	19	skewed	skewed	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	20	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	21	exhibit	exhibit	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	22	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	23	large	large	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	24	upside	upside	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	25	risk	risk	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	315	26	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	1	this	this	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	2	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	3	particularly	particularly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	4	evident	evident	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	5	for	for	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	7	u.s	u.s	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	8	.	.	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	10	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	11	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	12	prediction	prediction	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	13	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	15	first	first	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	16	row	row	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	17	indicates	indicate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	18	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	19	there	there	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	20	is	be	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	21	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	22	approximately	approximately	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	23	20	20	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	24	%	%	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	25	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	26	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	27	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	28	positive	positive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	29	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	30	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	31	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	32	throughout	throughout	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	33	april	april	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	34	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	35	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	36	least	least	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	37	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	38	10	10	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	39	%	%	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	40	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	41	until	until	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	42	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	43	middle	middle	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	44	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	45	june	june	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	316	46	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	1	converted	convert	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	2	into	into	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	3	levels	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	4	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	5	temporarily	temporarily	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	6	positive	positive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	7	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	8	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	9	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	10	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	11	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	12	generate	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	13	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	14	rise	rise	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	15	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	16	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	17	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	18	less	less	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	19	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	20	one	one	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	21	million	million	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	22	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	23	april	april	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	24	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	25	more	more	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	26	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	27	five	five	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	28	million	million	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	29	two	two	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	30	months	month	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	31	later	later	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	317	32	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	3	bottom	bottom	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	4	row	row	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	5	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	6	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	7	8	8	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	8	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	9	plot	plot	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	10	cumulative	cumulative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	11	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	12	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	13	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	15	date	date	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	16	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	17	recovery	recovery	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	18	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	19	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	20	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	21	define	define	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	22	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	23	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	24	first	first	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	25	date	date	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	26	when	when	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	27	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	28	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	29	fall	fall	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	30	below	below	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	31	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	32	initial	initial	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	33	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	34	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	35	i0	i0	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	318	36	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	2	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	3	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	4	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	5	calculated	calculate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	6	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	7	examining	examine	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	8	each	each	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	9	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	10	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	11	future	future	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	12	trajectories	trajectory	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	13	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	14	s	s	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	15	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	16	+	+	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	17	h	h	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	18	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	19	h	h	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	20	=	=	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	21	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	22	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	23	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	24	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	319	25	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	320	1	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	320	2	60	60	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	320	3	generated	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	320	4	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	320	5	algorithm	algorithm	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	320	6	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	320	7	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	2	south	south	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	3	korea	korea	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	5	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	6	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	8	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	9	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	10	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	11	fall	fall	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	12	below	below	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	13	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	14	i0	i0	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	15	over	over	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	16	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	17	two	two	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	18	month	month	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	19	period	period	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	20	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	21	close	close	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	22	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	23	80	80	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	24	%	%	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	25	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	26	whereas	whereas	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	27	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	28	germany	germany	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	29	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	30	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	31	u.s	u.s	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	321	32	.	.	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	322	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	322	2	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	322	3	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	322	4	approximately	approximately	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	322	5	50	50	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	322	6	%	%	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	322	7	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	322	8	60	60	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	322	9	%	%	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	322	10	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	322	11	respectively	respectively	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	322	12	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	2	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	3	9	9	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	4	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	5	overlay	overlay	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	6	eight	eight	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	7	weeks	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	8	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	9	actual	actual	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	10	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	11	onto	onto	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	12	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	13	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	14	generated	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	15	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	16	now	now	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	17	turn	turn	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	18	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	19	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	20	more	more	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	21	systematic	systematic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	22	evaluation	evaluation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	23	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	24	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	25	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	26	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	27	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	28	assess	assess	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	29	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	30	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	31	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	32	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	33	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	34	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	35	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	36	represented	represent	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	37	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	38	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	39	bands	band	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	40	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	41	figures	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	42	8	8	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	43	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	44	9	9	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	323	45	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	324	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	324	2	reasons	reason	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	324	3	previously	previously	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	324	4	discussed	discuss	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	324	5	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	324	6	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	324	7	4.2	4.2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	324	8	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	324	9	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	324	10	standardize	standardize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	324	11	future	future	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	324	12	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	325	1	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	325	2	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	326	1	+	+	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	326	2	h	h	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	326	3	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	326	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	326	5	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	326	6	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	326	7	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	326	8	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	326	9	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	326	10	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	326	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	326	12	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	326	13	origin	origin	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	326	14	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	1	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	2	closer	close	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	3	inspection	inspection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	6	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	7	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	8	more	more	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	9	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	10	100	100	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	11	countries	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	12	/	/	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	13	regions	region	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	14	reveals	reveal	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	15	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	16	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	17	long	long	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	18	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	19	run	run	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	20	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	21	performance	performance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	22	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	23	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	24	particularly	particularly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	25	good	good	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	327	26	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	1	this	this	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	2	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	3	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	4	just	just	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	5	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	6	feature	feature	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	7	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	8	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	9	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	10	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	11	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	12	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	13	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	14	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	15	but	but	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	16	also	also	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	17	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	18	feature	feature	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	19	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	20	other	other	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	21	epidemiological	epidemiological	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	22	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	23	such	such	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	24	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	25	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	26	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	27	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	28	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	29	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	30	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	31	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	32	report	report	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	33	results	result	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	34	below	below	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	328	35	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	1	thus	thus	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	3	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	4	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	5	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	6	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	7	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	8	focus	focus	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	9	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	10	one	one	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	11	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	12	week	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	13	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	14	four	four	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	15	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	16	week	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	17	ahead	ahead	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	18	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	19	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	20	not	not	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	21	report	report	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	22	results	result	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	23	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	24	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	25	eight	eight	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	26	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	27	week	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	28	horizon	horizon	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	329	29	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	330	1	alternative	alternative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	330	2	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	330	3	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	331	1	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	331	2	addition	addition	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	331	3	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	331	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	331	5	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	331	6	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	331	7	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	331	8	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	331	9	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	331	10	consider	consider	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	331	11	two	two	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	331	12	alternative	alternative	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	331	13	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	331	14	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	1	first	first	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	3	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	4	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	5	section	section	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	6	4	4	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	7	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	8	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	9	generate	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	10	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	11	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	12	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	13	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	14	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	15	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	16	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	17	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	18	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	19	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	20	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	21	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	22	3	3	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	23	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	24	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	25	each	each	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	26	location	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	332	27	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	1	second	second	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	3	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	4	estimate	estimate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	5	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	6	version	version	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	7	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	9	simple	simple	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	10	sir	sir	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	11	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	12	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	13	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	14	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	15	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	16	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	17	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	18	varying	vary	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	19	parameters	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	20	β	β	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	21	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	22	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	23	γ	γ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	24	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	333	25	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	1	notice	notice	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	3	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	4	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	5	rewriting	rewrite	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	6	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	7	1	1	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	8	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	9	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	10	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	11	express	express	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	12	β	β	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	13	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	14	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	15	γ	γ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	16	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	17	directly	directly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	18	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	19	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	20	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	21	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	22	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	23	observables	observable	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	24	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	25	here	here	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	26	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	27	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	28	omitting	omit	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	29	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	30	subscripts	subscript	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	31	):	):	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	32	8	8	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	33	this	this	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	34	allows	allow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	35	us	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	36	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	37	estimate	estimate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	38	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	39	ar(1	ar(1	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	40	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	41	law	law	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	42	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	43	motion	motion	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	44	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	45	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	46	2	2	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	47	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	48	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	49	each	each	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	50	country	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	51	using	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	52	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	53	techniques	technique	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	334	54	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	2	ar(1	ar(1	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	3	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	4	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	5	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	6	then	then	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	7	used	use	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	8	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	9	simulate	simulate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	10	trajectories	trajectory	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	11	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	12	β	β	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	13	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	14	+1	+1	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	15	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	16	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	17	+	+	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	18	h	h	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	19	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	20	γ	γ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	21	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	22	+1	+1	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	23	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	24	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	25	+	+	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	26	h	h	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	27	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	28	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	29	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	30	posterior	posterior	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	31	predictive	predictive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	32	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	335	33	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	1	9	9	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	2	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	3	each	each	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	4	parameter	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	5	sequence	sequence	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	6	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	7	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	8	iterate	iterate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	10	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	11	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	12	(	(	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	13	1	1	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	14	)	)	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	15	forward	forward	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	16	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	17	obtain	obtain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	18	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	19	predictive	predictive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	20	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	21	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	22	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	23	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	24	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	336	25	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	337	1	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	337	2	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	337	3	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	337	4	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	1	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	2	10	10	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	3	summarizes	summarize	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	5	one	one	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	6	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	7	week	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	8	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	9	ahead	ahead	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	10	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	11	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	12	performance	performance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	13	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	14	once	once	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	15	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	16	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	17	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	18	week	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	19	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	20	origins	origin	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	21	starting	start	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	22	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	23	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	24	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	25	04	04	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	26	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	27	18	18	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	28	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	29	ending	end	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	30	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	31	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	32	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	33	07	07	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	34	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	35	04	04	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	338	36	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	1	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	2	each	each	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	3	location	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	4	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	5	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	6	compute	compute	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	8	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	9	score	score	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	10	crps	crp	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	11	i	i	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	12	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	13	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	14	+	+	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	15	h|t	h|t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	339	16	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	2	top	top	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	3	row	row	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	4	shows	show	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	6	cross	cross	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	7	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	8	sectional	sectional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	9	median	median	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	10	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	11	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	12	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	13	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	15	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	16	origin	origin	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	17	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	18	whereas	whereas	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	19	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	20	center	center	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	21	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	22	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	23	bottom	bottom	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	24	row	row	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	25	show	show	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	26	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	27	cross	cross	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	28	-	-	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	29	sectional	sectional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	30	empirical	empirical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	31	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	32	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	33	two	two	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	34	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	35	origins	origin	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	36	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	37	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	38	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	39	04	04	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	40	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	41	18	18	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	42	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	43	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	44	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	45	06	06	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	46	-	-	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	47	06	06	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	340	48	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	2	panels	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	3	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	5	left	left	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	6	column	column	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	7	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	8	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	9	10	10	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	10	cover	cover	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	11	all	all	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	12	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	13	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	14	whereas	whereas	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	15	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	16	panels	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	17	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	19	right	right	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	20	column	column	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	21	distinguish	distinguish	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	22	between	between	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	23	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	24	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	25	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	26	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	27	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	28	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	29	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	30	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	341	31	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	2	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	3	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	4	comprises	comprise	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	5	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	6	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	7	experienced	experience	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	8	more	more	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	9	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	10	100	100	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	11	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	12	before	before	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	13	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	14	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	15	03	03	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	16	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	17	28	28	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	342	18	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	2	remaining	remain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	3	8	8	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	5	following	follow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	6	additional	additional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	7	variables	variable	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	8	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	9	obtained	obtain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	10	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	12	jhu	jhu	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	13	csse	csse	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	14	dataset	dataset	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	15	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	16	n	n	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	17	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	19	total	total	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	20	population	population	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	21	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	22	each	each	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	23	country	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	343	24	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	344	1	s	s	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	345	1	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	345	2	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	345	3	computed	compute	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	345	4	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	345	5	n	n	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	345	6	-i	-i	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	345	7	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	345	8	-recovered	-recovered	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	345	9	cases	case	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	345	10	-deaths	-death	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	345	11	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	1	9	9	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	2	based	base	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	3	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	5	specification	specification	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	6	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	8	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	9	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	10	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	11	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	12	let	let	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	13	β	β	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	14	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	15	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	16	γ	γ	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	17	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	18	>	>	X
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	19	0	0	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	20	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	21	0	0	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	22	≤	≤	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	346	23	s	s	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	1	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	3	i	i	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	4	t	t	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	5	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	6	r	r	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	7	t	t	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	8	≤	≤	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	9	n	n	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	10	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	11	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	12	all	all	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	13	t.	t.	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	14	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	15	panels	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	16	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	17	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	18	right	right	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	19	column	column	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	20	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	21	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	22	10	10	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	23	distinguish	distinguish	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	24	between	between	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	25	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	26	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	27	experienced	experience	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	28	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	29	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	30	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	31	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	32	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	33	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	34	stage	stage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	35	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	36	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	37	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	38	were	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	39	hit	hit	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	40	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	41	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	42	pandemic	pandemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	43	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	44	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	45	later	later	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	46	stage	stage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	347	47	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	2	key	key	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	3	result	result	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	4	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	5	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	6	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	7	forecast	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	8	origins	origin	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	9	dated	date	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	10	2020	2020	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	11	-	-	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	12	05	05	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	13	-	-	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	14	09	09	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	15	or	or	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	16	earlier	early	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	17	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	19	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	20	forecasts	forecast	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	21	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	22	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	23	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	24	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	25	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	26	more	more	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	27	accurate	accurate	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	28	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	29	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	30	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	31	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	32	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	33	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	34	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	35	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	36	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	37	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	38	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	348	39	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	1	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	2	result	result	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	3	confirms	confirm	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	5	basic	basic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	6	intuition	intuition	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	7	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	8	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	9	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	10	approach	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	11	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	12	be	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	13	advantageous	advantageous	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	14	during	during	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	15	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	16	slowly	slowly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	17	spreading	spread	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	18	pandemic	pandemic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	19	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	20	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	21	experience	experience	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	22	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	23	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	24	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	25	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	26	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	27	countries	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	28	can	can	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	29	sharpen	sharpen	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	30	inference	inference	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	31	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	32	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	33	re	re	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	34	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	35	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	36	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	37	latter	latter	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	38	countries	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	349	39	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	1	unfortunately	unfortunately	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	3	because	because	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	4	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	5	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	6	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	7	approach	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	8	dominates	dominate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	10	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	11	approach	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	12	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	14	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	15	countries	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	16	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	17	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	19	aggregate	aggregate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	20	there	there	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	21	is	be	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	22	no	no	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	23	clear	clear	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	24	advantage	advantage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	25	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	26	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	27	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	28	analysis	analysis	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	29	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	30	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	31	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	32	set	set	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	350	33	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	2	left	left	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	3	panels	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	5	figure	figure	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	6	10	10	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	8	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	9	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	10	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	11	have	have	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	12	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	13	smaller	small	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	14	average	average	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	15	length	length	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	16	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	17	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	18	individual	individual	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	19	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	20	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	21	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	22	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	23	both	both	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	24	groups	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	25	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	26	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	27	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	28	aggregate	aggregate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	351	29	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	1	thus	thus	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	3	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	4	balance	balance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	5	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	6	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	7	terms	term	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	8	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	9	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	10	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	11	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	12	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	13	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	14	approach	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	15	comes	come	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	16	out	out	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	17	slightly	slightly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	18	ahead	ahead	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	352	19	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	1	finally	finally	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	4	bottom	bottom	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	5	right	right	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	6	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	7	shows	show	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	8	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	9	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	10	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	11	forecasts	forecast	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	12	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	14	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	15	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	16	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	17	generally	generally	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	18	wider	wide	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	19	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	20	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	21	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	22	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	23	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	353	24	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	1	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	2	additional	additional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	3	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	4	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	5	caused	cause	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	6	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	8	difficulty	difficulty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	9	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	10	predicting	predict	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	12	change	change	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	13	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	14	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	15	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	16	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	17	around	around	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	19	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	354	20	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	355	1	figure	figure	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	355	2	13	13	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	355	3	displays	display	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	355	4	results	result	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	355	5	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	355	6	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	355	7	four	four	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	355	8	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	355	9	week	week	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	355	10	horizon	horizon	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	355	11	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	356	1	over	over	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	356	2	this	this	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	356	3	longer	long	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	356	4	horizon	horizon	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	356	5	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	356	6	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	356	7	coverage	coverage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	356	8	frequency	frequency	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	356	9	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	356	10	generally	generally	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	356	11	poor	poor	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	356	12	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	1	as	as	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	2	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	3	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	4	shorter	short	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	5	horizon	horizon	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	6	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	7	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	8	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	9	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	10	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	11	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	12	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	13	substantially	substantially	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	14	worse	bad	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	15	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	16	terms	term	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	17	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	18	coverage	coverage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	19	frequency	frequency	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	20	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	21	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	22	length	length	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	23	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	24	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	25	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	26	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	27	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	28	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	29	series	series	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	30	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	31	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	32	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	33	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	34	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	35	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	36	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	357	37	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	1	we	we	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	2	adopted	adopt	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	3	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	4	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	5	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	6	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	7	initially	initially	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	8	developed	develop	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	9	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	10	applications	application	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	11	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	12	economics	economic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	13	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	14	forecast	forecast	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	15	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	16	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	17	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	358	18	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	1	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	2	key	key	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	3	feature	feature	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	5	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	6	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	7	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	8	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	9	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	10	exploits	exploit	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	11	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	12	experience	experience	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	13	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	14	countries	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	15	/	/	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	16	regions	region	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	17	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	18	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	19	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	20	epidemic	epidemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	21	occurred	occur	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	22	early	early	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	23	on	on	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	24	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	25	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	26	sharpen	sharpen	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	27	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	28	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	29	parameter	parameter	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	30	estimates	estimate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	31	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	32	locations	location	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	33	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	34	which	which	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	35	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	36	outbreak	outbreak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	37	took	take	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	38	place	place	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	39	later	later	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	40	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	41	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	359	42	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	1	at	at	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	2	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	3	core	core	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	5	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	6	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	7	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	8	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	9	specification	specification	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	10	that	that	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	11	assumes	assume	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	12	that	that	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	14	growth	growth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	15	rate	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	16	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	17	active	active	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	18	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	19	coverage	coverage	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	20	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	21	notes	note	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	22	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	23	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	24	nominal	nominal	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	25	coverage	coverage	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	26	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	27	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	28	80	80	NUM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	29	%	%	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	360	30	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	1	left	leave	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	2	column	column	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	3	panels	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	4	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	5	solid	solid	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	6	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	7	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	8	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	9	dashed	dash	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	10	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	11	country	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	12	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	13	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	14	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	15	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	16	dashed	dash	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	17	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	18	dotted	dot	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	19	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	20	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	361	21	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	362	1	right	right	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	362	2	column	column	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	362	3	panels	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	362	4	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	362	5	solid	solid	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	362	6	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	362	7	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	362	8	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	362	9	dashed	dash	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	362	10	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	362	11	country	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	362	12	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	362	13	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	362	14	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	363	1	blue	blue	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	363	2	lines	line	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	363	3	correspond	correspond	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	363	4	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	363	5	early	early	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	363	6	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	363	7	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	363	8	orange	orange	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	363	9	lines	line	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	363	10	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	363	11	late	late	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	363	12	group	group	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	363	13	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	364	1	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	364	2	function	function	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	364	3	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	364	4	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	364	5	break	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	364	6	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	365	1	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	365	2	specification	specification	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	365	3	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	365	4	inspired	inspire	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	365	5	by	by	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	365	6	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	365	7	dynamics	dynamic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	365	8	generated	generate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	365	9	from	from	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	365	10	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	365	11	simple	simple	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	365	12	sir	sir	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	365	13	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	365	14	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	1	according	accord	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	2	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	3	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	4	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	5	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	6	there	there	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	7	is	be	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	8	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	9	lot	lot	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	10	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	11	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	12	about	about	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	13	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	14	evolution	evolution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	15	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	16	infection	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	17	rates	rate	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	18	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	19	due	due	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	20	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	21	parameter	parameter	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	22	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	23	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	24	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	25	realization	realization	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	26	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	27	future	future	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	28	shocks	shock	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	366	29	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	1	moreover	moreover	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	3	due	due	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	4	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	5	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	6	inherent	inherent	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	7	nonlinearities	nonlinearitie	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	8	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	9	exponential	exponential	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	10	transformations	transformation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	11	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	12	predictive	predictive	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	13	densities	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	14	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	15	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	16	level	level	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	17	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	18	infections	infection	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	19	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	20	highly	highly	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	21	skewed	skewed	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	22	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	23	exhibit	exhibit	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	24	substantial	substantial	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	25	upside	upside	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	26	risk	risk	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	367	27	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	1	consequently	consequently	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	2	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	3	it	it	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	4	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	5	important	important	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	6	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	7	report	report	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	8	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	9	or	or	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	10	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	11	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	12	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	13	rather	rather	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	14	than	than	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	15	point	point	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	16	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	368	17	.	.	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	1	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	2	natural	natural	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	3	extension	extension	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	4	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	5	our	our	PRON
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	6	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	7	is	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	8	to	to	PART
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	9	allow	allow	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	10	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	11	additional	additional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	12	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	13	data	data	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	14	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	15	determined	determine	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	16	breaks	break	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	17	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	18	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	19	deterministic	deterministic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	20	trend	trend	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	21	function	function	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	22	as	as	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	23	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	24	pandemic	pandemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	25	unfolds	unfold	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	26	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	27	countries	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	28	/	/	SYM
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	29	regions	region	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	30	are	be	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	31	adopting	adopt	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	32	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	33	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	34	comparison	comparison	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	35	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	36	interval	interval	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	37	forecasts	forecast	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	38	policy	policy	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	39	implications	implication	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	40	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	41	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	42	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	43	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	44	spread	spread	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	45	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	46	coronavirus	coronavirus	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	47	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	48	perspectives	perspective	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	49	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	50	opportunities	opportunity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	51	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	52	economists	economist	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	53	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	54	challenges	challenge	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	55	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	56	modeling	model	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	57	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	58	forecasting	forecast	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	59	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	60	spread	spread	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	61	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	62	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	63	nonparametric	nonparametric	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	64	empirical	empirical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	65	bayes	baye	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	66	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	67	compound	compound	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	68	decision	decision	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	69	approaches	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	70	to	to	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	71	estimation	estimation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	72	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	73	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	74	high	high	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	75	-	-	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	76	dimensional	dimensional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	77	vector	vector	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	78	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	79	normal	normal	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	80	means	mean	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	81	splinefunktionen	splinefunktionen	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	82	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	83	macroeconomics	macroeconomic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	84	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	85	epidemics	epidemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	86	estimating	estimate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	87	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	88	simulating	simulate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	89	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	90	sird	sird	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	91	model	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	92	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	93	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	94	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	95	many	many	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	96	countries	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	97	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	98	states	state	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	99	,	,	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	100	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	101	cities	citie	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	102	health	health	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	103	versus	versus	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	104	wealth	wealth	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	105	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	106	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	107	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	108	distributional	distributional	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	109	effects	effect	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	110	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	111	controlling	control	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	112	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	113	pandemic	pandemic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	114	unobserved	unobserved	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	115	heterogeneity	heterogeneity	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	116	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	117	income	income	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	118	dynamics	dynamic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	119	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	120	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	121	empirical	empirical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	122	bayes	bayes	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	123	perspective	perspective	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	124	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	125	probability	probability	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	126	approach	approach	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	127	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	128	econometrics	econometric	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	129	going	go	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	130	viral	viral	ADV
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	131	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	132	forecasting	forecast	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	133	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	134	coronavirus	coronavirus	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	135	pandemic	pandemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	136	across	across	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	137	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	138	containing	contain	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	139	papers	paper	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	140	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	141	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	142	mathematical	mathematical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	143	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	144	physical	physical	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	145	character	character	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	146	macroeconomic	macroeconomic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	147	dynamics	dynamic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	148	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	149	reallocation	reallocation	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	150	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	151	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	152	epidemic	epidemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	153	nowcasting	nowcaste	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	154	unemployment	unemployment	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	155	insurance	insurance	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	156	claims	claim	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	157	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	158	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	159	time	time	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	160	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	161	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	162	when	when	SCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	163	will	will	AUX
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	164	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	165	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	166	pandemic	pandemic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	167	peak	peak	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	369	168	?	?	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	1	density	density	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	2	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	3	in	in	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	4	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	5	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	6	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	7	:	:	PUNCT
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	8	a	a	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	9	semiparametric	semiparametric	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	10	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	11	perspective	perspective	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	12	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	13	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	14	dynamic	dynamic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	15	panel	panel	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	16	data	datum	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	17	models	model	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	18	estimating	estimate	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	19	an	an	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	20	inverse	inverse	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	21	gamma	gamma	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	22	distribution	distribution	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	23	forecasting	forecast	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	24	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	25	impact	impact	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	26	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	27	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	28	first	first	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	29	wave	wave	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	30	of	of	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	31	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	32	covid-19	covid-19	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	33	pandemic	pandemic	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	34	on	on	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	35	hospital	hospital	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	36	demand	demand	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	37	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	38	deaths	death	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	39	for	for	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	40	the	the	DET
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	41	usa	usa	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	42	and	and	CCONJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	43	european	european	PROPN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	44	economic	economic	ADJ
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	45	area	area	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	46	countries	country	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	47	dealing	deal	VERB
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	48	with	with	ADP
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	49	data	data	NOUN
cord-280683-5572l6bo	370	50	gaps	gap	NOUN
