key: cord-298064-itxuyetu authors: tang, rong; erdelez, sanda; may, emma; zhang, yishan title: the state of practice of covid‐19 tracking systems: an inventory study date: 2020-10-22 journal: proc assoc inf sci technol doi: 10.1002/pra2.397 sha: doc_id: 298064 cord_uid: itxuyetu in this poster, we report the preliminary results of an inventory of 149 publicly accessible active covid‐19 tracking systems. key findings include the frequency distribution of the systems' web domain names, the countries where the systems were created, the languages they support, the visual display format, the map platforms, and the data sources. these findings help to advance the knowledge of the data characteristics and design of pandemic surveillance/tracking systems. during the current covid-19 pandemic, numerous covid-19 tracking systems and dashboards (e.g., "covid-19 map" by johns hopkins university, "covid-view" by the cdc, "coronavirus [covid-19]" by who) have been developed, and used readily by public health professionals, researchers, and the general public. according to the world health organization (who), the objectives of covid-19 surveillance systems include: "(a) monitor trends in the disease where human-to-human transmission occurs; (b) rapidly detect new cases in countries where the virus is not circulating; (c) provide epidemiological information to conduct risk assessments at the national, regional and global levels; (d) provide epidemiological information to guide preparedness and response measures" (who, 2020). shah (2020) also indicated that "covid-19 has shown the importance of dashboards and visualization for everyone. various countries and even states/regions have created their own covid-19 dashboards to educate people on the pandemic." however, to date, there has been no in-depth examination of the functions and features of these tools, and no sufficient empirical evidence about the accessibility and usability of these tools for the general public, whose daily lives have been threatened by the virus. the main goal of this study is to investigate the primary functions, features, and data display characteristics of covid-19 tracking systems. the research questions for the study are as follows: the covid-19 tracking system inventory was developed from april 6 to may 21, 2020 by our research team. there is a total of 149 publicly accessible systems documented in the inventory. among them, 112 (75.17%) were found through using google as the search engine. twenty (13.42%) were found using youtube, 10 (6.71%) were found on news websites. other search tools used to source tracking systems include baidu (n = 2, 1.34%), bing (n = 1, .67%), weibo (n = 1, .67%), articles (n = 1, .67%), newsletters (n = 1, .67%), and more. search terms used include "covid 19," "coronavirus," "covid 19 map," "新冠疫情" "疫情地图" or other variations. all but three systems were retrieved using english, and three using chinese search terms. we also used search terms that included individual states in the us, for example, "covid 19 and california," "covid 19 and washington dc." 3 | results the most frequently occurred url domain extension was .gov (n = 52, 35%), followed by .com (n = 42, 28.2%), .org (n = 13, 8.7%), then by .edu (n = 4, 2.7%), .live (n = 3, 2.0%). other generic domain extensions that had only one occurrence include .us, info, io, app and tech. the .cn has six instances (n = 6, 4%). the remaining 24 sites included one instance from eu and 23 individual countries' url extensions. there were 37 originating countries. ninety-seven (64.67%) systems were from the us, eight systems were from china (5.33%), three were from the uk (2%), two each were from australia, germany, hong kong, india, japan, korea, and switzerland. our sample was biased towards tools in the u.s., as we performed u.s. state related searches. table 1 includes all the countries where tracking systems were created. twenty-four languages were used in the 149 systems, with several systems having multilingual versions. the most common language was english (n = 127, 85.23%), followed at a distant second by chinese (n = 13, 8.72%), spanish (n = 8, 5.37%), korean (n = 5, 3.36%), german (n = 3, 2.01%), japanese (n = 3, 2.01%), russian (n = 3, 2.01%), vietnamese (n = 3, 2.01%), and haitian creole (n = 2, 1.34%). the remaining 14 other languages were used by one system. data visualization features and display format were documented in terms of the presence or absence of maps, tables, various chart formats including line charts, column charts, bar graphs, area charts, and pie charts. more than 80% (n = 120) of the systems contained a map, mostly interactive maps, and over 76% (n = 114) of the systems had tables. the types of charts in the order of frequency, were line charts (n = 86, 57.72%), column charts (n = 84, 56.38%), bar graph (n = 45, 30.20%), area charts (n = 34, 22.82%), and pie charts (n = 28, 18.79%). figure 1 shows the proportion of the systems' visual display capabilities. twenty-six kinds of platforms were used for tracking systems' map displays. the most popular platform was arcgis by esri (n = 30, 20.13%), followed by here (n = 22, 14.77%), and openstreetmap (n = 22, 14.77%). figure 2 displays all the platforms used by the 149 tracking systems. a total of 71 data sources were used by the 149 systems. among them, 19 were repeated sources, 52 were single sources. the most frequent data source was local state governments in the u.s. (n = 63, 42.28%). the second most frequent data source was johns hopkins center for systems science and engineering (csse) (n = 35, 23.49%). government-provided data sources were utilized for 31 systems (20.81%). beyond that, sources such as who (n = 21, 14.09%), the cdc (n = 14, 9.40%), the national health commission of china (n = 10, 6.71%), and european centre for disease prevention and control (ecdc) (n = 9, 6.04%) were used by multiple tracking systems. examples for data sources that were used for one system only included lancet, стопкоронавирус, helsingin sanomat, and bbc. table 2 lists data sources that were used by more than one system. according to french and monahan (2020) , it is necessary to establish a broader understanding of covid-19 surveillance systems as "[t]his understanding could productively contemplate 'any tracking and monitoring, whether systematic or not, of health-related information,' as well as any tracking and monitoring that could be enrolled into the work of determining the health status of people and populations" (pp. 4-5) . with the current status of the covid-19 pandemic, it is essential that covid-19 tracking systems provide accurate, reliable, and timely data. with reports (e.g., madrigal & meyer, 2020) on how various tracking systems including the cdc and state governments in the u.s. mixing data about tests, and thereby producing an inaccurate picture of the outbreak status, our inventory study presents an overall understanding the state of practice of such systems. note that our inventory at this stage is heavily biased towards the u.s. dashboards, systems originating from countries with more than 10,000 coronavirus cases will be searched and included. our next steps will involve the heuristic evaluation and usability testing of selected systems. it is hoped that our findings will advance the knowledge of the data characteristics and design of pandemic surveillance/tracking systems. dis-ease surveillance: how might surveillance studies address covid-19? data visualization and dashboards in the era of covid-19 global surveillance for human infection with coronavirus disease (covid-19) key: cord-017621-pyn1enz2 authors: zaras, nikolaos v. title: case study – greece date: 2012-08-31 journal: biopreparedness and public health doi: 10.1007/978-94-007-5273-3_11 sha: doc_id: 17621 cord_uid: pyn1enz2 biological terrorism and the need for biological defence is a relatively new concept for greece. although defence against weaponized pathogens was part of cbrn training in the military, it was the 9/11 massacre followed by the anthrax letters horror that triggered a more active involvement of the greek public health sector. in that historical moment a third bullet was added to the already existing disease outbreak classification – naturally, accidental and now deliberate. these incidents and the subsequent 2004 olympic games in athens drove the greek government to focus on biodefence and revise existing civil emergency planning by inclusion of new emerging threats. naturally occurring or accidental outbreaks of a disease usually take place in both urban and country environments. big cities are usually the targets of bioterrorism due to the high density of population resulting in both physical and psychological casualties. if the disease does not start from one's own country then early warning might be possible, leading to preventive measures all the way from the borders into the community. the h1n1 virus pandemic is an example of this globalization of medical information that is useful to both countries and citizens. one important parameter of the epidemiology of infectious diseases is the movement of the populace either for professional, recreational or immigration reasons. in the past, moving from one location to another, even within the same country borders, took considerable time. in modern times, usually less than 24 h is needed to cross the world. we witnessed the contribution of faster travel to the spread of disease recently during the 2010 fl u pandemic. apart from the legal movement of a population, mass illegal immigration also poses a signi fi cant problem in certain parts of the world -e.g. in greece -in relation to the spread of a disease or reemergence of old diseases like malaria or tuberculosis. the geographical location of greece and its porous borders due to the signi fi cant coastline make it an attractive destination for those seeking a better living environment or as a way to enter other eu countries as a fi nal destination. greece receives a considerable number of tourists annually that exceeds its own population. greeks also travel globally for the reasons mentioned above. this constant movement of a populace makes epidemiologic surveillance and disease prevention extremely dif fi cult. the reality of disease transmission as a result of immigration and travel is re fl ected below in the results from the hellenic centre for disease control and prevention (cdcp) [ 2 ] and various relevant ngos addressing the health status of immigrants and transmission of old and new infectious diseases. the percentage of declared cases of speci fi c diseases attributed to greek citizens and immigrants is shown in table 11 .1 . timely information is crucial when it comes to a natural or accidental outbreak of a disease. this information might be bene fi cial to laboratory or institution workers or the population that needs to be protected. of course, in most cases, basic hygiene measures (personal or collective, at home or in a wider infrastructure such as schools) can prevent these diseases. defence against a deliberate outbreak of a disease requires intelligence. this type of medical intelligence is attributed to national intelligence service both civilian and military. usually international collaboration is mandatory when weaponized pathogens are the problem. risk identi fi cation and assessment contribute to national defence as well. it is a continuous process dealing with both the deliberate and non-deliberate forms of disease outbreaks. internal (sanitary institutions, police reports, etc.) and external (neighboring countries, world health organization, eu public health surveillance systems, etc.) hints can assist experts to perform a risk assessment leading to an alert of the public health system. current geopolitical instability and turmoil in our own region combined with the existing direct and indirect, overt and covert threats against western societies make bioterrorism attacks a potential risk. production of biological weapons is both easy and cost effective. of course we must discriminate between the production and weaponization of pathogens that is not as easy and needs specialized equipment. pathogen production does not require large factories and existing facilities in commercial infrastructure (food industry, drug industry) can be used for this purpose. on a smaller scale, pathogens can be cultivated in small laboratories or mobile caravans similar to those used to produce illegal drugs. identi fi cation of such illegal laboratories is very dif fi cult. viral pathogens are more dif fi cult to produce as compared to bacteria and also need some extra precautions and equipment. large quantities of biological weapons can still be produced in a short period of time (days or weeks) in small laboratories. according to kathleen c. bailey, former assistant director, of fi ce for disarmament and armaments control, who visited many biotechnology and pharmacology companies, a complete biolab requires no more than a room of 4.5 m × 4.5 m and a budget of usd 15,000 for supplies [ 1 ] . in such a room, trillions of bacteria can be quickly produced with low risk and with minimum personal protection equipment such as a gas mask and a plastic suit over clothing. dif fi culties relevant to the production of biological weapons include: dif fi culties in the protection of workers at all levels of production, transportation, • and fi nal dispersal of biological weapons; low level of training and expertise can lead to accidents and exposure to • pathogens; vaccination of those involved is not always protective/effective; • controlling the quality and quantity of produced material is dif fi cult; • dispersion is not without problems since dispersal device explosives, uv expo-• sure, or weather conditions such as rain or drying may have negative effects on pathogens or spores; storage of pathogens poses additional problems; speci fi c conditions are required • to maintain the ef fi cacy, and it is dif fi cult to maintain them in a form ready for dispersion over long periods of time. key stakeholders in public health preparedness and response systems are: epidemiologic monitoring is the systematic and continuous collection, analysis and interpretation of sanitary/medical information relevant to public health. the objectives of epidemiologic monitoring are: follow-up of tendencies (estimate the impact of a disease or health problem the system of mandatory reporting of diseases represents the basis of epidemiologic monitoring in most countries; usually it is supplemented by more specialized systems, networks or studies with speci fi c objectives. the objectives of this system are: speci fi c (for the system of mandatory reporting of diseases) -detection of spo-• radic cases; detection of epidemic cases generic (for every system of epidemiologic monitoring) -estimation of reper the reporting process can start from the clinical or laboratory doctor or the hospital's infectious diseases nurse but has to be sent immediately (by fax) to the regional health directorates and cdcp. the reporting form includes the following data: after reporting, evaluation of the validity/completeness of the reported elements will follow along with a thorough investigation of the case that will lead to a systematic/ rapid analysis and interpretation/export of the conclusions. brie fi ng of public health/ sanitary/medical/nursing services will follow a complete evaluation of the system. 1836: elementary mandatory reporting of diseases (newspaper of government, no. 83, 31/12/1836 ). 1911 -1915 : legislation on systematic mandatory reporting of diseases (cholera 1911, smallpox 1911, plague 1915) . 1950: "measures taken against infectious diseases justifying their reporting as mandatory", art. 1: mandatory reporting of diseases (rd 7/9-11-1950) . 1998: essential improvement of mandatory reporting system (national centre of epidemiologic surveillance and intervention). 2003: "organization and modernization of public health services and other provisions", art. 8, law 3172/6-8-2003: epidemiologic monitoring of pestiferous diseases is practiced and coordinated by cdcp. 2003: "regulations applied for regional systems of health and providence", art. 44, law 3204/23-12-2003: cdcp -each private or public medical institution or individual doctor, operating legally, is obliged to inform cdcp of each case of pestiferous disease that comes to his/her attention. hellenic personal data protection authority: 1997: "protection of individuals from the manipulation/exposure of data of per-• sonal character", art. 7, law 2472/1997: exceptionally, it is allowed: if it concerns subjects of health; -if it is executed by a health professional in duty of secrecy; -if it is essential for medical prevention. this system was set in operation in 1999 and revised in september 2004. it deals with common diseases with minor indications (usually). its scope is to support the health system through data gathering and processing, to make a clear estimate of diachronic trends and detect a possible epidemic elevation in an area or region. a large number of selected primary care doctors participate in this system/ programme. these doctors are distributed all over the country in the following networks: private doctors network (86 physicians); • regional health care centres/clinics (98 physicians); • social security institute health units network (44 physicians). • the diseases included in the system of illness observers at the fi rst degree health care centres are: whooping cough, measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, in fl uenza of infective etiology, respiratory infection with fever (>37.5 °c). a weekly report is done of the number of cases and patients. the report is done according to the clinical fi ndings and de fi nitions. all public sector services, in the case of a suspected or con fi rmed biological incident -deliberate or not -that needs to be treated, alert the civil protection operations' centre of gscp. gscp then activates the crisis management team (cmt) which consists of representatives from police, fire service, first aid national center (fanc) [ 7 ] , national defence general staff, centre for disease control and prevention (cdcp) and the gscp itself. gscp's representative coordinates the functions of the cmt through telephone or video conference. after the thorough evaluation of the severity of the incident and the classi fi cation with different color codes if necessary, cmt will conduct a meeting at the gscp building for better coordination of the operation. when an initial estimation has been made, medical directorates in various/all regions of the country are informed and guidelines are issued. medical directorates are obliged to report immediately to the gscp about any laboratory result following citizens' examinations and inform the public according to the guidelines of gscp. different missions are given to police and fire service depending on the incident's nature. if needed, national defence general staff contributes resources through its military hospitals, laboratories, mobile laboratories, medical personnel, services (mass vaccination) and equipment (direct supply of masks with fi lters against biological agents, personal protective suits, decontaminants, antidotes, drugs, mobile toilets, and decontamination facilities) or other supportive units (e.g. to clear or secure an area, for quick transportation or relocation of people, etc.). in case of a cbrn agent release, hellenic national defence general staff activates its special joint cbrn company which has the capability to be airborne and deploy anywhere in greece within 4 h (maximum), to conduct a cbrn search, survey, identi fi cation, sampling, decontamination, and provide specialized fi rst aid. for bioterrorism agents, this company has the capability to operate portable biological detectors that can identify pathogens of special interest, such as those causing anthrax or plague, within 30 min (up to 28 biological samples can be processed simultaneously). the platoon was established after the 2004 olympic games by merging the two specialized units (one fi eld unit operating in both hot and warm zones and one hospital-based unit deployed at the army general hospital of athens) that were created and deployed during the games in support of fi rst responders. the optimal function of the system include: systematic weekly reporting • sharing small amounts of information with constant fl ow from the laboratories syndromic surveillance (special systems) this system is activated in special conditions or when there is a speci fi c objective. it applies to the reporting of predetermined clinical conditions ("syndromes") and not diagnosed diseases (e.g. "respiratory infection with fever" instead of syndromic surveillance applies to the system of illness observers, early detection of epidemic elevations or individual incidents with public health importance hepatitis a (syndrome compatible with acute hepatitis) • septic/unexplained shock monitoring of hospital infections) and studies with speci fi c objectives also exist. these are clinical-laboratory networks for special pathogens, such as hospital bio-pathology laboratories, reference laboratories, specialized laboratories, and special clinical units • contagious spongiform encephalopathy (centres for spongiform encephalopathy • reporting) poliomyelitis (centres for poliovirus reporting) • meningitis (centres for meningitis reporting) weapons of mass destruction: costs versus bene fi ts supplement to the general plan for civil protection "xenokrates" with the specialized plan for the management of human casualties" 5. ministry of citizen protection key: cord-027721-hpzs6fvf authors: mcheick, hamid; sayegh, john; ajami, hicham title: context-aware healthcare adaptation model for copd diseases date: 2020-05-31 journal: the impact of digital technologies on public health in developed and developing countries doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-51517-1_27 sha: doc_id: 27721 cord_uid: hpzs6fvf nowadays, ubiquitous computing and mobile applications are controlling all our life’s aspects, from social media and entertainment to the very basic needs like commerce, learning, government, and health. these systems have the ability to self-adapt to meet changes in their execution environment and the user’s context. in the healthcare domain, information systems have proven their efficiency, not only by organizing and managing patients’ data and information but also by helping doctors and medical experts in diagnosing disease and taking precluding procedure to avoid serious conditions. in chronic diseases, telemonitoring systems provide a way to monitor the patient’s state and biomarkers within their usual life’s routine. in this article, we are combining the healthcare telemonitoring systems with the context awareness and self-adaptation paradigm to provide a self-adaptive framework architecture for copd patients. chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (copd) have attracted research interest as a major public health problem, because according to the world health organization (who) [1] , copd is currently considered the fourth, and will soon become the third, most frequent cause of death worldwide. it is also a disabling disease and therefore associated with high costs for treating and managing patients. as the disease progresses, patients become more susceptible to respiratory exacerbations which cause frequent hospital admissions and, thus, have a huge impact on patients' quality of life and healthcare costs [2, 3] . monitoring patient's health conditions from home and transmitting these data to a healthcare center could be a great solution that facilitates the management of the growing number of patients with copd and reduce the burden on health services. this approach is called home tele-monitoring, which can be used for a timely assessment of acute exacerbation or as a mechanism to generate alarms to the patients and/or healthcare professionals when clinical changes that may constitute a risk to the patient occur [4] . there are many systematic reviews and studies on the topic of telemonitoring in respiratory patients, specifically in patients with copd [5] [6] [7] [8] . all these studies are focusing on proving the effectiveness of applying home telemonitoring on copd patients, by studying the services that could be provided and their impacts on the patient's quality-of-life. however, none of these studies has provided a comprehensive proposal for a telemonitoring system that helps to control the burden of copd. we aim to design a telemonitoring healthcare application that helps copd patients with self-management and improve their quality of life, therefore reducing pressures on healthcare resources. we must develop a system that uses this data to provide an effective intervention that prevents exacerbation through the early recognition of symptoms and prompt treatment which may reduce the risk of hospitalization and control the burden of copd. based on this healthcare requirement, we realized the need of combining context awareness and self-adaptation with health telemonitoring, which will give our system the ability to be aware of the patient's data and context, then to adapt the required changes and act accordingly. the remainder of this paper is structured as follows. section 2 introduces the concept of context-awareness and reviews the most common forms of self-adaptation frameworks. section 3 highlights the characteristics of self-adaptive systems. section 4 presents our self-adaptation healthcare system for copd. section 5 then validates the proposed approach. finally, sect. 6 presents our conclusions. 2 context awareness and self-adaptation systems the notion of context has appeared implicitly for the first time in the ubiquitous computing area in 1993 by weiser "all the information that should be taken into consideration for an adjustment" [9] . lieberman et al. [10] proposed another interpretation of the context that exists within the field of computing: "context can be considered to be everything that affects the computation". this definition focuses on the application instead of the user, but nowadays with the widespread of mobile applications that focus on the user's lifestyle, health, and activities the factors that affect the user and these that affect the computation process become almost the same. in software systems, context awareness notion is mostly coupled with selfadaptation capability otherwise, there is no point in collecting contextual data. selfadaptation is a set of simultaneous and successive processes as an organized reaction to changes in the resources or environment of the system [11] . self-adaptive systems dynamically modify their behaviors to respond effectively to changes in their operational environment [12] . in the next section, an overview of many self-adaptation frameworks is provided. rainbow framework provides general mechanisms for developing reusable selfadaptive systems at a variety of different levels [13] . model-driven approach is an automated self-adaptive model that supports adding and removing technical resources at run-time [14] . meta-self is a service-oriented framework that provides a solid platform for the development of sas [15] . this framework allows designers to identify system properties, architectural patterns, and different adaptation mechanisms. fusion is a reusable feature architecture that incorporates a learning-based adaptive cycle. the adaptation cycle consists of three main steps-detect, plan, and effect [14] . moses is a service-oriented framework that focuses on quality of service (qos) requirements at runtime. moses provides a reusable implementation strategy of the adaptation logic following the mape cycle (monitoring, analysis, planning, and execution) [14] . the contract-based adaptive software application framework (casa) [16] is specialized in handling resources instability. the framework assumes that a system should not make any assumptions about the resources that will be available and should be prepared for any resource availability scenario cases. service-oriented architectures (ssoa) is a software framework that specifies any kind of adaptation by decomposing of functionalities [17] . each of these functionalities shall be specialized to fit a particular purpose. caredroid is an adaptation framework for android context-aware applications [18] . this framework caredroid monitors the contexts at run-time, and active methods only when it intercepts calls to sensitive methods. 3 system requirements and self-adaptation characteristics and taxonomy the first step to designing a self-adaptive system is to well identify the system requirements; we will depend on w5h-pattern [19] , which presents six questions that would help us in eliciting adaptation requirements (table 1) . [20] , the change needs to be done in the application layer on both sides: user interface and physician interface when when do we need to make these changes? whenever an urgent update happens in the user contextual data like vital signs, environmental risk factors, and planned activities or periodical changes like the evaluation of treatment and decision support suggestions what what do we need to change? we need to update some system attributes that present the system state and these attributes in its turn could trigger new functions or activate new components why why these changes are required? in healthcare monitoring applications especially these related to chronic diseases, taking precluding actions is crucial in treatment plans. also being able to notify the patient and the medical experts about any threatening situation or abnormal signs make these kinds of applications more efficient who is any human intervention is required in the adaptation process? from the patient side, all his biomedical data and surrounding environments data will be collected from sensors. however, because physical activities do affect the copd patient's state, he needs to detect his planned physical activity (running, swimming) how how to determine what changes and actions are needed to be done in the adaptation process? ajami and mcheick [20] provided a rule-based reasoning engine, depending on these generated rules all the required actions and changes can be deduced christian et al. [21] presented a taxonomy of the different properties of self-adaptive software. we will analyze this work and do a projection on our system requirements and use the results to build our system. handte et al. [22] provided two perspectives of temporal aspects: (i) reactive is when we have to adapt whenever a change in the context does happen. (ii) proactive is when the monitored data is used to forecast system behavior or environmental state [21] . in our case, the adaptation will be reactive depending on the changes that happen in the user contextual data. reason: the adaptation could be triggered for three reasons: (i) change of the context, (ii) change in the technical resources, and (iii) change in the users. in our case, the adaptation is triggered due to contextual changes, which provide a potential solution for the multiscale nature of copd. level: in our system, the change needs to be done on the application layer, where we need to update the acceptable range for the different datasets or we need to activate new components or call new functions. technique: mckinley [23] provided two techniques for adaptive software: parameter adaptation and compositional adaptation. parameter adaptation achieves a modified system behavior by adjusting system parameters. whereas compositional adaptation enables the exchange of algorithms or system components dynamically at runtime. we will use the first approach because it is suitable for a rule-based system. adaptation control: two approaches for implementing the adaptation logic can be found in the literature. the internal approach, which twists the adaptation logic with the system resources. the external approach splits the system into adaptation logic and managed resources, the ibm autonomic computing initiative provided mape model [24] , which is an external, feedback control approach. another aspect of the adaptation logic is the degree of decentralization. we will follow a decentralized approach by implementing independent units that control different aspects of adaptation. 4 self-adaptation healthcare system for copd ajami and mcheick [20] have proposed an ontology-based approach to keep track of the physical status of patients, suggest recommendations and deliver interventions promptly, by developing a decision support system based on an ontological formal description that uses swrl rules. the main goal of this paper is to provide an adaptation architecture design for the application layer, which will address the connection between three different entities: 1 -the end-user application: which is supposed to provide a certain service for both patient and physician. 2 -the data sources (sensors and patient's records): that provides a continuous stream of contextual data and historical data about the patient. 3 -the rules base: which presents the knowledge base in our system (fig. 1) the adaptation engine consists of a central adaptation unit and multiple sub adaptation units. each subunit is responsible for monitoring and managing changes for a specific category tuple (data, rules, services). the system variables will be saved in a shared memory called the global state, which is a composition of sub-states. each sub-state is considered as a container for saving category-specific data and it will be updated and managed by the adaptation subunit that is responsible for monitoring the same category. we will divide all our sets of data, rules, and services into three categories ( table 2) : now each subunit will be responsible for a specific category of the tuple. therefore, we will have three subunits: 1 -the biometrics unit 2 -the environmental unit 3 -the activities unit (fig. 2 ). -the biometrics unit will be responsible for monitoring all the patient's biomarkers upcoming from the biometrics sensors, and it will read all the stored data in the other two sub-states (the environmental state & the activities state), then depending on the vital related rules in the rules engine, it will update the biometrics state with the safe ranges for all the vital biomarkers and the current measurements for them. the same workflow will be applied in both the environmental unit and the activities unit. -the central adaptation unit: it is considered the main core of our system; it will be responsible for monitoring the global state, which will get rid of the burden of dealing with the continuous streaming of the patient's biometrics and the environmental data. by collecting all the contextual data in the global state, each category in its sub-state, we will have access to all the current biometrics and external factors value with the safe range for each one of them as well the current physical activity and the planned list of activities. depending on the previous data, the central unit will be able to detect any potential risk or abnormal situations by comparing the current value of each factor in the substates with its normal range, which had been adapted by every sub adaptation unit. when an abnormal situation is detected, the central unit will detect what action should be taken to prevent an exacerbation in the patient's health state. in order to test and validate our proposed system, we implemented a simulation app using some data obtained from medical records to simulate the streamed data and a set of copd rules extracted in [25] to create some testing scenarios. the main focus of the validation process was on the efficiency of the system to provide continuous monitoring of the patient status, and the ability to apply and adapt the required changes to prevent any dangerous exacerbation. the testing scenarios we had performed, proofed the ability of our system to handle the complexity of monitoring the enormous amount of contextual data, and keep track of the latest updates in the global state. also, following an aspect-oriented approach facilitates the implementation of the adaptation logic, by separating the categories of data that each adaptation unit needs to be responsible for observing. after testing some rules that lead to call a sequential set of actions and multiple updates in the state units, the system was able to adapt the safe ranges for the different environmental and biometrical factors and detect suitable action in an abnormal situation. nevertheless, our system still needs to be tested when it is connected to the whole rules engine when all copd rules are inserted into the engine, which will be done in future work. in this paper, we have presented an architecture for a context-aware self-adaptive system that is used to develop a copd healthcare telemonitoring system. the system is backed out by a medical rules engine in the copd domain that is used as the knowledge base to determine the safe ranges for patient's biomarkers and external factors, then detect the precluding actions needed to be taken to prevent severe exacerbations in patient's health state. our main contribution in this work is providing a context-aware self-adaptive system architecture that is dealing with the huge variety and complexity of contextual data and different sets of services by implementing a decentralized adaptation unit, which makes the monitoring and adaptation task easier and less complex by applying the separation of concerns principle. the top 10 causes of death integrated care prevents hospitalisations for exacerbations in copd patients global strategy for the diagnosis management and prevention of copd, global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease (gold the use of remote monitoring technologies in managing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease insufficient evidence of benefit: a systematic review of home telemonitoring for copd home telehealth for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis home telemonitoring forrespiratory conditions: a systematic review systematicreview of telemedicine services for patients affected by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (copd) telehealthcare for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: cochrane review and meta-analysis out of context: computer systems that adapt to, and learn from, context. ibm syst a survey on engineering approaches for self-adaptive systems an architecture-based approach to self-adaptive software rainbow: cost-effective software architecture-based self-adaptation comparison of approaches for developing self-adaptive systems metaself -an architecture and a development method for dependable self-* systems casa a contract-based adaptive software architecture framework towards a generic context-aware framework for self-adaptation of service-oriented architectures caredroid: adaptation framework for android context-aware applications getting to requirements: the w5h challenge ontology-based model to support ubiquitous healthcare systems for copd patients a survey on engineering approaches for self-adaptive systems 3pc: system support for adaptive peer-to-peer pervasive computing composing adaptive software ibm: an architectural blueprint for autonomic computing a pervasive healthcare system for copd patients ), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the creative commons license and indicate if changes were made. the images or other third party material in this chapter are included in the chapter's creative commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. if material is not included in the chapter's creative commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use key: cord-300467-zht8olyh authors: nkengasong, john n.; nsubuga, peter; nwanyanwu, okey; gershy-damet, guy-michel; roscigno, giorgio; bulterys, marc; schoub, barry; decock, kevin m.; birx, deborah title: laboratory systems and services are critical in global health: time to end the neglect? date: 2010-09-01 journal: am j clin pathol doi: 10.1309/ajcpmpsinq9brmu6 sha: doc_id: 300467 cord_uid: zht8olyh the $63 billion comprehensive global health initiative (ghi) emphasizes health systems strengthening (hss) to tackle challenges, including child and maternal health, hiv/aids, family planning, and neglected tropical diseases. ghi and other initiatives are critical to fighting emerging and reemerging diseases in resource-poor countries. hss is also an increasing focus of the $49 billion program of the us president’s emergency plan for aids relief and the global fund to fight aids, tuberculosis and malaria. laboratory systems and services are often neglected in resource-poor settings, but the funding offers an opportunity to end the neglect. to sustainably strengthen national laboratory systems in resource-poor countries, the following approaches are needed: (1) developing integrative national laboratory strategic plans and policies and building systems to address multiple diseases; (2) establishing public-private partnerships; (3) ensuring effective leadership, commitment, and coordination by host governments of efforts of donors and partners; (4) establishing and/or strengthening centers of excellence and field epidemiology and laboratory training programs to meet shortand medium-term training and retention goals; and (5) establishing affordable, scalable, and effective laboratory accreditation schemes to ensure quality of laboratory tests and bridge the gap between clinicians and laboratory experts on the use of test results. and malaria. laboratory systems and services are often neglected in resource-poor settings, but the funding offers an opportunity to end the neglect. to sustainably strengthen national laboratory systems in resource-poor countries, the following approaches are needed: (1) developing integrative national laboratory strategic plans and policies and building systems to address multiple diseases; (2) establishing publicprivate partnerships; (3) ensuring effective leadership, commitment, and coordination by host governments of efforts of donors and partners; (4) establishing and/or strengthening centers of excellence and field epidemiology and laboratory training programs to meet short-and medium-term training and retention goals; and (5) establishing affordable, scalable, and effective laboratory accreditation schemes to ensure quality of laboratory tests and bridge the gap between clinicians and laboratory experts on the use of test results. in may 2009, president barack obama announced a $63 billion comprehensive global health initiative (ghi) to focus attention on broad global health challenges, including child and maternal health, hiv/aids, family planning, and neglected tropical diseases, with cost-effective intervention. the ghi adopts an integrated approach to fighting diseases, improving health, and strengthening health systems. during the past 10 years, the field of global infectious diseases has witnessed tremendous challenges and opportunities, including the continuous struggle to control and prevent the hiv/aids pandemic and to tackle emerging or reemerging infectious diseases, including multidrug-resistant and extensively drugresistant tuberculosis (tb), 1 novel emerging infections such as severe acute respiratory syndrome, 2 the avian influenza virus h5n1, 3 and the current pandemic of novel influenza a (h1n1) virus. 4 these infections have been well contained in developed countries, thanks to well-established laboratorysupported surveillance systems. however, laboratory services and systems are weak in resource-poor countries (rpcs). the new ghi, together with the surge in funding and commitment for programs to fight hiv/aids, tb, malaria, and flu in rpcs (an estimated $10 billion per annum is devoted to tackling the hiv/aids pandemic 5,6 ), offers a monumental opportunity to strengthen laboratory systems in rpcs that could be used to combat multiple diseases. health system strengthening is a key area of focus for some of the major programs, including the ghi. for example, in 2009, the us president's emergency plan for aids relief (pepfar) dedicated $1.0 to $1.4 billion to supporting health systems, of which 6% is earmarked for strengthening laboratory systems. 7 the global fund to fight aids, tuberculosis and malaria has also allocated a similar proportion to strengthening laboratory services. 7 in addition, the world bank will be allocating $63.6 million to strengthen laboratory systems in a regional program in east africa. 8 together these increased resources offer an unprecedented prospect to strengthen, in a holistic and integrated way, multiple challenges facing the appalling national laboratory systems (nlss) in rpcs. strengthened nlss will be critical to delivering reliable laboratory services to meet the millennium development goals (mdgs) for health; fight multiple existing, emerging, and reemerging diseases; and achieve president obama's ghi objectives. despite substantial evidence that nlss (comprising public health, government, private, and mission hospitals) are a key component of the overall health system; are needed to achieve the mdgs for health; are required for meeting universal access for treatment of hiv/aids, tb, and malaria; and are critical for achieving the objectives of the world health organization's (who) international health regulation (ihr), they remain one of the most neglected components of the health system in rpcs. 9,10 major challenges facing nlss in rpcs include a shortage of skilled and trained personnel, an inadequate infrastructure (eg, consistent supply of electricity and water, physical infrastructure), a lack of equipment, inadequate supply-chain management for consumables and reagents, poor equipment maintenance, lack of clear policies, and insufficient leadership. 9,10 consequently, clinicians lack confidence in laboratory results 11 and often rely on clinical diagnosis and empirical treatment instead of laboratory-confirmed diagnosis. for example, few clinicians order sputum-smear microscopy for a tb diagnosis because the turnaround time for the results may be longer than the average hospital stay, and patients are often discharged or die before the results are received. in addition, clinical diagnosis without quality laboratory testing often results in significant misdiagnosis and overdiagnosis, leading to inadequate or inappropriate treatment, drug resistance, and increased mortality. 12, 13 reyburn and colleagues 14 found that among 4,670 patients admitted and treated for malaria in a tanzania hospital, fewer than 50% actually had malaria, as confirmed by blood smear. similarly, a study in ghana found that 40% of patients with a clinical diagnosis of malaria actually had bacterial sepsis, 15, 16 and the correct diagnosis of malaria leads to better treatment. 17 in january 2008, the maputo declaration for a global commitment to strengthen laboratory services and systems in rpcs was issued and endorsed. 18, 19 with the surge in funding, we believe that the following actions should be undertaken to strengthen nlss in a sustainable manner in rpcs. as illustrated in ❚figure 1❚, countries and partners need to develop national laboratory policies and strategic plans 19 as part of the overall health sector development investment. these plans should be comprehensive and not disease-specific and should integrate multiple diseases with the ultimate goal of establishing a functional tiered laboratory network in the country as proposed in ❚figure 2❚. laboratory plans should also be considered a key component of implementing the who ihr, which is a legally binding agreement of all member states of who to help the international community ❚figure 1❚ core cross-cutting elements of laboratory health systems that should be strengthened to support multiple diseases of public health importance. horizontal arrows indicate cross-cutting core elements that affect laboratories and need to be addressed in a national laboratory strategic plan, regardless of the disease. these core elements must be addressed at various levels of a tiered laboratory network. the vertical arrows are examples of major public health diseases that have seen a surge in funding that can drive the laboratory systems to be strengthened in resource-poor countries. prevent and respond to acute public health risks with a global impact, such as influenza, multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tb, and other diseases. 20 as shown in figure 1 , a comprehensive national laboratory strategic plan should focus on strengthening core cross-cutting elements of laboratory health systems, including the following: (1) a framework for training, retaining, and career development of laboratory workers; (2) infrastructure development; (3) supply-chain management of laboratory supplies and maintenance of laboratory equipment; (4) specimen referral systems in an integrated, tiered nls network; (5) standards for quality management systems and accrediting laboratories and facilities; (6) laboratory information system; (7) biosafety and waste management; and (8) a governance structure that will clearly address regulatory issues and define reporting structures, authority, and the relationship between private diagnostic and public health laboratories, to ensure a functional nls network as illustrated in figure 2 . these regulatory frameworks are critical for guiding the implementation of laboratory quality management systems, accreditation of laboratories, defining certification process for technicians, and monitoring and evaluation. ❚figure 3❚ is a proposed framework for strengthening laboratory systems in developing countries. if efforts are focused on strengthening core cross-cutting aspects of laboratory systems that are critical to ensure quality diagnostic services (microscopy, flow cytometry, molecular diagnosis, serology, clinical chemistry, and culture), sustainable nlss will emerge in rpcs that will benefit the fight against multiple emerging, reemerging, and existing diseases. in fact, because some hiv/ aids laboratory investments had strengthened laboratory core systems in some rpcs, they have been instrumental in the past in supporting the investigation of other disease outbreaks. 21 moreover, with support from the world bank's aids program and pepfar, rwanda developed a functional integrated national reference laboratory that is currently used to combat multiple diseases, including tb, malaria, and epidemic-prone diseases (eg, cholera), and priority diseases. finally, laboratory plans should aim at strengthening infrastructure in health facilities outside the public sector, especially private and mission hospitals that are critical to achieving universal access to care and treatment in rpcs. in fact, a sizable portion of persons in africa receive health care in the private and rural settings in which, in some countries, 40% of all health care and more than 70% of care in rural areas is provided in mission hospitals. 22 once developed, laboratory strategic plans can be implemented through a variety of ways. first, public-private partnerships (ppps) have been shown to be effective in strengthening ❚figure 2❚ potential structure of a national laboratory network system in resource-poor countries. in this structure, clear lines of functions, authority, and responsibility are outlined from the central public health laboratory (cphl) to the primary health center (phc). for example, the cphl sets policy, conducts planning, and establishes appropriate quality management systems. in larger countries, regional public health laboratories may need to take on the responsibilities of the cphl so as to reach the phc. health systems in rpcs. 23 therefore, ppps that focus on implementing established laboratory plans will be vital. in this respect, pepfar has entered into an $18 million ppp agreement with becton dickinson, a private medical diagnostic company, to strengthen laboratory capacity in 8 african countries in the areas of training, development of referral systems for transporting samples, and quality management schemes. 24 similarly, the abbott fund in tanzania is developing laboratory infrastructure in the country, including a stateof-the-art reference laboratory in dar es salaam, and upgrading all regional hospital laboratories in the country. 25 26 will be critical to developing laboratory services and systems in the private sector. increased funding to combat hiv/aids, tb, malaria, flu, and global infectious diseases means that multiple international partners and donors will be present in a given rpc. the unintended consequences of uncoordinated efforts can be fragmented laboratory health systems. to avoid this shortcoming, the maputo declaration calls for increased collaboration and coordination of donors and implementing partners' activities, based on their comparative advantages, within the context of countries' national strategic laboratory plans. therefore, host governments will need to show leadership and commitment by ensuring that laboratory plans are an integral part of the overall health systems strategy and investment for the country and that a functional department of laboratory services is established within the ministry of health, similar to other departments such as pharmacy and disease control. there is an acute shortage of a well-trained national laboratory workforce to meet the expanding hiv/aids, tb, malaria, and flu programs. the who estimates that to meet the mdgs, approximately 1 million new health workers (including staff working in laboratories) will need to be trained and retained by the year 2010. 27 in this regard, the pepfar reauthorization legislation that aims to train 140,000 health care workers is a highly appropriate initiative. 28 training and retention efforts for laboratory experts should focus on job redesign and use holistic approaches that address projected skill shortages, ie, based on an assessment and definition of critical gaps at the country or regional level. any effective training strategy must proactively involve stakeholders (eg, national governments, the private sector, development partners, and multilateral bodies). to partly address the short-term laboratory needs and support current ❚figure 3❚ proposed framework for strengthening laboratory systems globally showing the core elements of a laboratory system that need to be strengthened, with the surge in hiv/aids and tuberculosis funding, to provide broad-based, integrated, quality laboratory services and ensure sustainability of global laboratory investments. this approach will be needed to combat multiple global disease program needs, especially for infections that do not have specific funding. for example, for serologic diagnosis of any disease to be effective in a resource-poor country, there is a need to adequately address issues related to quality management, training and retention, equipment procurement and maintenance, supply chain management, laboratory information systems, biosafety, and policy. program goals, centers of excellence are needed to provide specialized staff needs. with funding from pepfar, the national institute of communicable diseases in johannesburg, south africa, recently established the african center for integrated laboratory training (acilt). the acilt was created after in-depth consultation on laboratory training needs of several african countries, in collaboration with the who regional office for africa. the courses used a competency-based approach for the trainees to obtain knowledge and skills at the national institute of communicable diseases; attendees then returned to their countries and developed competencies while working under supervision and received follow-up visits by the core training staff of acilt. this training approach is similar to the short-course component of the us centers for disease control and prevention-supported field epidemiology training programs in several rpcs. in these programs, field epidemiologists and public health laboratory staff are jointly trained in long courses (ie, 2-year public health leadership training) and short courses (ie, 1-to 2-week public health implementer training) to acquire skills and develop competencies while providing a public health service. 29 these were modeled on the us centers for disease control and prevention epidemic intelligence service. laboratory components of the field epidemiology training programs will need to be standardized and strengthened to address needs for technicians, managers, and policy makers. although implementing international laboratory standards, such as iso 15189, has been shown to be possible in developing countries, implementation is not easily scalable in the laboratories of most developing countries. thus, the who regional office for africa stepwise laboratory accreditation program and the thai accreditation scheme, both described in this issue of the journal, offer practical and affordable approaches to quality management systems that can be implemented and scaled up in developing countries. there is need to establish continuous laboratory medical education (cmle) for clinicians so as to bridge the gap between laboratory testing and uptake for patient management. regional societies for laboratory medicine or clinical pathology could serve as the appropriate vehicle to meet these critical gaps, including implementing cmle and certification of training for medical technologists. the new obama ghi and the increased funding for hiv/ aids, tb, malaria, and flu programs provide a monumental opportunity to build integrated and sustainable nlss in rpcs, which will help advance the goals of the mdgs for health, support universal access to treatment, meet the objectives of the maputo declaration, and advance the who ihr. the efforts of rpc governments and partners should be focused on developing an integrated and functional tiered nls through a comprehensive national laboratory strategic plan and policy, establishment of ppps, leadership and commitment of host countries that is needed to effectively coordinate donors and implement the efforts of partners, establishment of centers of excellence to meet urgent human capacity needs, and implementation of practical and affordable laboratory accreditation schemes and cmle for physicians. global efforts should center on strengthening critical cross-cutting core elements of laboratory systems (figure 3 ) that are vital to support multiple global health needs and will ensure sustainability. multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis: a review identification of the novel coronavirus in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome characterization of an avian influenza a (h5n1) virus isolated from a child with a fatal respiratory illness severe respiratory disease concurrent with circulation of h1n1 influenza the great funding surge hiv/aids: money matters aids: lessons learnt and myths dispelled cross-country laboratory network to raise east africa's defenses against disease are laboratory services coming of age in sub-saharan africa laboratory medicine in africa: a barrier to effective health care laboratory use in ghana: physician perception and practice achilles heel" of global efforts to combat infectious diseases diagnostic insufficiency in africa overdiagnosis of malaria in patients with severe febrile illness in tanzania: a prospective study high mortality of infant bacteraemia clinically indistinguishable from severe malaria overlap in the clinical features of pneumonia and malaria in african children improved diagnostic testing and malaria treatment practices in zambia world health organization. the maputo declaration on strengthening of laboratory systems critical role of developing national laboratory strategic plans as a guide to strengthen laboratory health systems in resource-poor settings outbreak news: avian influenza responding to the global human resources crisis public-private partnerships to build human capacity in low income countries: findings from the pfizer program the united states president's emergency plan for aids relief: bd and pepfar collaborate to strengthen laboratory systems in fight against hiv/aids and tb corporate volunteerism as a pilot approach to strengthening laboratory infrastructures in mbeya region abstract mopeg4165 international health partnership: a welcome initiative health in africa fund holds first close on $57m united states. president bush signs hr 5501, the tom lantos and henry j. hyde united states global leadership against hiv/ aids, tuberculosis and malaria reauthorization act of training programmes for field epidemiology key: cord-023104-dpftawj3 authors: boin, arjen title: the transboundary crisis: why we are unprepared and the road ahead date: 2018-07-22 journal: nan doi: 10.1111/1468-5973.12241 sha: doc_id: 23104 cord_uid: dpftawj3 modern societies rely on complex technological systems that are deeply intertwined with other complex systems that stretch across geographical, judicial and administrative borders. when threats emanate from this transboundary space, national governments are often surprised and discover that existing crisis management arrangements do not suffice. this article describes the political and administrative challenges that accompany transboundary crises. it argues that arrangements and processes that work reasonably well for “bounded” crises are unlikely to work in the case of transboundary crises. it formulates an agenda for political debate and academic research. the bottom line is that we need to rethink traditional crisis management arrangements in order to prepare for these increasingly common type of threats. much has been done in recent decades to prepare modern society for all sorts of crises and disasters. one might say that many societies have never been as prepared for crises and disasters as they are today. that is a good thing. but here is the bad news: modern societies are woefully underprepared for dealing with a type of threat that is on the rise. this is what i refer to as the transboundary crisis. the transboundary crisis effortlessly exceeds geographical, policy, cultural, public-private and legal boundaries that normally enable public managers to classify, contain and manage a crisis. it escalates rapidly and mutates constantly, creating confusion about causes and possible consequences. it ends up on many administrative tables, but it is not obvious which of those tables is or should be "in the lead." these features make a fast and adequate response difficult, to say the least. the transboundary crisis comes in many guises: • in 2002, a mysterious virus spread from china, via hong kong, to 37 countries causing hundreds of deaths. the sars virus caused a major health crisis in toronto. in all these examples, national governments were confronted with a crisis that had origins in faraway domains. however well prepared they may have been for traditional crises, they soon discovered that their response repertoire was insufficient in the face of the transboundary challenges. when the state has no answer to a crisis, consequences follow. in times of crisis, the public expects representatives of the state to take charge. it is, after all, a core task of the state to protect its citizens against the consequences of threat and calamity. if the state fails in this core task, the legitimacy of public institutions and the especially when the legitimacy of public institutions is already under question. the transboundary crisis is the ultimate nightmare for crisis managers. it marks the moment they discover their traditional crisis arrangements do not suffice in the light of the political-administrative challenges that this crisis brings. it sheds light on a structural governance deficit, which presents politicians with a pressing design, let alone management, challenge. this study offers a roadmap for a discussion about possible solutions. this roadmap hinges on a strategic choice between two options that emerge from our discussion of theory: move backward by decoupling from modern systems or move forward by strengthening transboundary crisis management capacities. transboundary crises may come in different guises, but they share common characteristics that make them difficult to manage: the transboundary crisis reaches across multiple countries and/or multiple policy areas. there is no defined geographical location (a "ground zero") or policy sector around which to organize. that creates diversity in perspective: what in one domain is experienced as a problem of scarcity may become a matter of public safety in another; what in one country is considered a local matter is chefsache in another country. the transboundary crisis brings a critical challenge to any administrative system that is based on boundaries and demarcation. by crossing borders, the transboundary crisis challenges borders. in a democratic state that is based on the principle of political accountability and makes use of the bureaucratic organization form, most organizations are organized around demarcated areas of expertise and authority. the bureaucratic organization is based on boundaries among task fields, responsibilities, divisions, departments and policy sectors. two mechanisms have been traditionally used to address blurring of borders: coordination (negotiating boundaries) and centralization (transcending boundaries). these mechanisms can be problematic in the best of times; they are especially problematic in a transboundary crisis. coordination mechanisms may work fine for complex problems and the traditional crisis. the mechanisms, however, do not work in the world of the transboundary crisis for two reasons. first, in a transboundary crisis, it is not clear who the critical actors are or should be, and what their authority in the matter is. second, it is hard to establish or negotiate ownership in a short time frame (time is always scarce in a crisis). we may thus say that the transboundary crisis robs bureaucracy of its most effective tool. centralizing emergency powers in the hands of a leader or a central body is the traditional catch-all solution. in the roman empire, unlimited powers were placed in the hands of a dictator. in modern democracy, crisis centralization is still a valued mechanism. but it comes with constraints: it is not easy to centralize power, and it does not happen often. moreover, the "high command" is not always defined clearly enough, and the mechanisms that should regulate such a concentration of power are cumbersome. a quick look at the legal terms that condition the authorization of exceptional violence (the deployment of special police units) makes clear that a tension exists between legal considerations and the required speed of action. this tension can often only be circumvented in an environment in which political actors know and trust each other. in a transboundary crisis, the nation state may not be the only actor. but how to centralize power in an international context? governments are reluctant to shift decision-making authority to international institutions. think, for example, of eu agencies, which in principle could play a decisive role during a transboundary crisis. but these organizations were never endowed with decision-making powers. we should, then, not be surprised that an eu agency such boin | 95 as frontex accomplished so little during the immigration crisis that peaked in 2015. in sum, transboundary crises pose a wide and deep challenge to the standing governance arrangements of democratic states. that is problematic. the state is left rudderless in a time when citizens look to their elected leaders and trusted institutions to navigate them through the storm. a transboundary crisis can thus rapidly become a crisis of legitimacy. a vicious cycle threatens. the effectiveness of the crisis response relies to a large extent on legitimacy. but the legitimacy of public institutions is already under attack. if institutions do not function effectively during a crisis, they lose even more legitimacy. the transboundary crisis makes vulnerable institutions even more vulnerable. what can be done to protect our country, our prosperity and our well-being in a world of new, unprecedented crises that effortlessly bypass existing lines of defence? to answer this question, we must understand the underlying drivers of the transboundary crisis. two books, both classics, provide a great starting point: barry turner's (1978) man-made disasters and charles perrow's (1984) normal accidents. both authors focus on the relentless modernization of socio-technical systems. we build increasingly complex systems that we connect to other complex systems with one goal: to enhance the efficiency of critical processes (such as food supply, transport, production chains, internet and energy), that is, to increase the speed of service delivery at ever-lower costs. the thesis that emerges from both books can be summarized as follows: these "highways of efficiency" become the "highways of failure" that allow, if not actually enable, routine disruptions to travel very quickly from one system to another. perrow's argument is simple and convincing. if a system becomes evermore complex, it also becomes evermore difficult to understand. when something goes wrong, it is not immediately clear for system operators what is happening. if a complex system is tightly connected with other systems, we know that even a small disturbance can affect the functioning of these other systems. by the time the problem is recognized in one system, others may have been infected. complexity and tight coupling create fertile ground for small incidents to jump from one domain to another and thus escalate into larger-scale crises. new threats exploit these "highways of failure." the rise of revolutionary technologies-artificial intelligence, dna editing, drones, 3d-printing, self-propelled cars, the "internet of things"-brings happiness and economic prosperity, but they also speed up failure and create unknown shortcuts for unprecedented threats. from this theoretical perspective, two options emerge. a country can move backward by decoupling from the modern complexity ecology or move forward by a strategy of protecting complexity. perrow opted for the way back: simplify and unbundle critical systems. if complexity and tight coupling are the problem, perrow's solution-decoupling-is the obvious solution: return to simpler systems that are isolated from other systems. by decoupling from modernity, many crises simply cannot happen. the choice for decoupling does not come free, however. withdrawal entails a decoupling from the benefits that complex systems generate. it is a costly affair, as economists are fond to explain. but this rational argumentation collides with the growing unease about the negative effects of modern systems. in times of uncertainty, the call for entrenchment behind hard borders may not be evidence based, but it is intuitively convincing and politically attractive. we should therefore expect that "decoupling" remains an option as long as modern systems generate uncontrollable hazards. an alternative (or complimentary) strategy is prepared in the face of complexity. if we accept that disturbances can and will emerge, perhaps we are better off investing in early detection and timely intervention. aaron wildavsky (1988) argued that enhanced resilience through a trial-and-error strategy, relying on the human capacity for innovation and learning, is a much more fruitful strategy than a short-sighted focus on prevention through entrenchment. resilience became a dominant feature of many policy efforts in the domain of safety and security. governments that are unable or unwilling to protect their citizens against systemic risks appeal to the ability of citizens (also organizations and communities) to "absorb shocks" and "bounce back" after a disruptive event. the underlying idea is that citizens know what is good for them. in this line of thinking, it is not necessary that government arranges full protection for all citizens from all those complex systems surrounding them. begins with understanding the many ways in which incidents can develop into cross-border threats. how are systems connected? how can a system be infected by a disruption in another system? how can one system be protected against another without undermining the fruits of the existing connection? we need to understand the vulnerabilities of complex and tightly coupled systems. vulnerability thinking is still in its infancy. intelligence services seek to recognize potential threats in a timely manner. hedge funds bet on "big data" to foresee political upheavals. the eu has more than 100 detection and early warning mechanisms in place (but nobody knows if they are effective). research funded by the eu (horizon 2020) focuses on understanding escalation mechanisms in critical infrastructures. complexity researchers study "tipping points." other researchers focus on the ability of people in control rooms to detect early aberrations in critical processes. the need for detection mechanisms is clearly and widely acknowledged, but we await major breakthroughs. the transboundary crisis will continue to surprise us for the time being. the transboundary crisis is difficult to comprehend. the causes are hidden in system complexity and pile up when the dominoes start falling. to understand how a threat unfolds, where exactly and how quickly, it is necessary to bring together as much relevant information as possible, that is, to authorize, analyse and share it with the right parties-quickly and effectively. where critical information about the broken levees in new orleans disappeared. it took the federal authorities more than 24 hours to understand that the city was under water. the solution does not lie in the development of new technologies. what is needed is an approach that helps information managers to quickly collect information from a variety of organizational domains. they must learn to locate sources of critical information; they must also learn to make sense of that information, which is likely to be difficult as the information emanates from very different sources. it is a truism that critical decisions must often be made quickly on the basis of very little information when in a crisis. from a legitimacy perspective (see below), it is important that those critical decisions are made by the appropriate officials or institutions. the transboundary crisis makes this quite tricky, as it challenges the underlying logic of bureaucracy (where responsibility is tied to a person, position or institution). when a crisis involves multiple actors, each with their own responsibilities, interests and working methods, it must be clear who is authorized to decide what. this rarely has been determined beforehand, as a transboundary crisis tends to involve a unique constellation of actors. as we have seen, the typical solution to this type of problem involves a combination of centralization and coordination. centralization is hard enough for the more routine crises; it is even less likely to work in the international arena. national governments do not lightly cede authority to international organizations (certainly not during a crisis where so much is at stake). the international arena has produced some innovative solutions: think of nato's article five boin | 97 (centralization in case of defined threats) and the european central bank (centralization by stealth). the most important problem is that crisis centralization tends to create serious legitimacy issues. if the ownership on critical issues is allocated to an official or institution, and thus not allocated somewhere else or taken away from someone, it is crucial that the "crisis owner" can rely on political and public support. if this is not the case, the legitimacy of public institutions may come under pressure. without a solid legitimacy basis, effective crisis management becomes difficult. centralization that has not been subjected to processes of democratic deliberation and control is risky in this regard. the european central bank became increasingly powerful during the financial crisis and is hardly subject to democratic control. the impotence of the european parliament is telling. the european central bank has made decisions that large groups of citizens perceive as unjust. the lack of democratic control opens the door for politicization of the crisis response. coordination, on the other hand, may work. but that requires a degree of "instant trust" that is often lacking between actors that have never worked together before. promising initiatives can be found at the interface of public and private. for instance, the netherlands has the ict response board in which private parties work with government to prepare for cyber disasters. the louisiana business emergency operations center is another innovative example. the question is whether such practices can be scaled to the international level. theoretical progress is being made. by formulating transboundary crisis management as a collective action problem, we can apply theoretical insights from this body of research. this type of research may provide a view of the conditions under which crisis cooperation is possible, and the strategies that may be helpful. one such strategy, for example, is based on that idea of "instant trust"-unilaterally taking the first step, without being sure of reciprocity (majchrzak, jarvenpaa, & hollingshead, 2007) . but, overall, we can state that mechanisms for the delineation of authority are lacking for transboundary crises. in the absence of serious political discussion, real progress will likely only happen after a disastrous encounter with a transboundary crisis. the transboundary crisis is, of course, not a new phenomenon. crises have always traversed boundaries. think of the plague sweeping across europe, the 1918 flu epidemic, food shortages in the roman empire or the two world wars. the optimist may claim that the western world has managed the really big threats in the postwar era. the pessimist may argue that the connections among international systems have spectacularly increased, problems have become more complex, and the number of actors has increased dramatically. even if the pessimist is only half right, we may justifiably ask whether we are sufficiently prepared. the good news is that crisis management has professionalized in the past few decades. since the beginning of this century (after the millennium computer bug and 9/11), western countries have heavily invested in crisis management capacity, both in the public and private sectors. municipalities, schools, hospitals, businesses-crisis management is now firmly on the radar just about everywhere. more, even though public bureaucracies are not designed to deal with exceptional situations, "work arounds" have been created to deal with routine crises. i have argued, however, that these existing crisis management structures are no match for the transboundary crisis. when the system under threat becomes spread too far, and workarounds do not we leave it to the national crisis institutions. we can instruct these institutions to pay more attention to the transboundary dimensions of crises. it will not be easy to introduce a new way of working in institutions that are built around traditional practices that work for traditional incidents and crises. these organizations do not have to unlearn standing practices; they must learn to deal with the transboundary crisis. we must, in other words, make those institutions "ambidextrous." this will require a lot of work, because national crisis institutions have little affinity with transnational and cross-border crisis management. perhaps it is better to invest in organizations that are already active in cross-border domains. nato and the european union have in recent years developed crisis management capabilities which, in principle, are intended for cross-border crises. the eu, in particular, has developed in embryonic form abilities needed for a transboundary crisis. but these capabilities and assets are scattered across the many agencies and commission parts of the eu. and the crisis performance of the eu is not always considered effective or legitimate. in particular, the response to the financial crisis and the immigration crisis has become sources of controversy. the eu will need time to become an effective and legitimate actor in the crisis domain. 1 3. build transboundary crisis management institutions. think in terms of a new organization, with new people, a respected leadership, real powers and a realistic budget. an institute that invents and tests new forms of crisis management practices. new processes and forms of organization that can effectively address the transboundary crisis. the advantage is that a brand new institution can devise novel methods or ways of thinking from scratch. that is, at the same time, the downside: it will take a long time and the outcome is by no means guaranteed. we conclude by setting out a research challenge. it is important to study the different guises in which the transboundary crisis comes, which allow for classification. it may well turn out that some types of transboundary crises are more amenable to certain interventions (such as centralization and coordination, decoupling or resilience) than others. it may well be that certain types are more politically or analytically challenging. the research challenge is to find out how characteristics relate to preparatory and management efforts. we may discover that certain types are intractable, whereas others may lend themselves to early detection and intervention. by studying cases of actual crises and near misses, we should be able to enhance our understanding of the transboundary crisis. acknowledgment i wish to thank emery roe for his extensive and constructive comments, which greatly improved this article. this study has benefitted from funding provided by the european union's horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no 649484 (transcrisis). the politics of crisis management managing hurricane katrina: lessons from a megadisaster coordinating expertise among emergent groups responding to disaster man-made disasters searching for safety how to cite this article: boin a. the transboundary crisis: why we are unprepared and the road ahead key: cord-302879-ao0n3x9b authors: vanhee, t.; lachiri, f.; van den steen, e.; bottenberg, p.; vanden abbeele, a. title: child behaviour during dental care under nitrous oxide sedation: a cohort study using two different gas distribution systems date: 2020-10-16 journal: eur arch paediatr dent doi: 10.1007/s40368-020-00569-z sha: doc_id: 302879 cord_uid: ao0n3x9b purpose: conscious sedation by inhalation of a mixture of nitrous oxide and oxygen (cs) is a technique used in dental care for anxious, handicapped or uncooperative patients. the very special objective of this cohort study is to compare the behaviour of young patients during dental care under cs in two hospitals using different gas distribution systems. methods: young patients were divided into four categories: young child (yc), phobic anxiety (pa), mental disorder (md), occasional indication (oi). differences in behaviour scale at various time points according to the sedation system used were established and compared using mann–whitney tests. results: this study showed that there is no difference in behaviour during dental care in yc after sedation. in pa, a significant difference in behaviour is only observed during local anaesthesia (p = 0.024). conclusion: no significant differences detected in children’s behaviour under conscious sedation using different gas administration systems. the delicate stage of local anaesthesia in pa patients can be facilitated with repeated sessions of dental care under conscious sedation. electronic supplementary material: the online version of this article (10.1007/s40368-020-00569-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorised users. conscious sedation by inhalation of a mixture of nitrous oxide and oxygen (cs) is an effective means for the management of uncooperative children requiring dental care in paediatric dentistry services in hospitals (bryan 2002) . the majority of cs dental care is successful in anxious children (> 90% of cases) (foley 2005; hennequin et al. 2012 ). this medical tool increases the cooperation of young patients by reducing anxiety during dental care (burnweit et al. 2004; galeotti et al. 2016 ). inhaled after a period of induction, the nitrous oxide mixed with pure oxygen, allows to decrease the painful perception during dental care (hammond and full 1984) . two gas distribution systems are used for cs in paediatric dental care: the mixing system with a bottle of n 2 o and a bottle of o 2 and the system using a fixed equimolar mixture of n 2 o and o 2 (emono) readily available in a single tank from the supplier. the mixing system is widely used for dental care around the world except in some countries like france while the emono system, widely used in general medical practice is more widespread in the french paediatric dental practice. both systems have advantages: the mixer system allows to manage the concentration of n 2 o (capped at 50%) and maintains pure o 2 available to speed up recovery. drawbacks are a higher level of sophistication and costs as it depends on an electronic system for mixing. furthermore, pure n 2 o is present at the operatory. in the emono system, the mixing is already done, the dentist has no risk of n 2 o overdose except in case of gas demixing, it can be operated independent of a power supply and at lower cost. whatever the system used, this does not affect the oxygen saturation of haemoglobin (primosch e al. 1999 ). the effect of nitrous oxide administration can be measured by the success or failure rate of the treatment or using behavioural observation with instruments like of venham scale (collado et al. 2006) . indeed, one of the first interests of cs in the context of paediatric dental care is to improve the cooperation of patients to be able to take care of them serenely and safely. behaviour is therefore an essential element in the estimation of the success of care under cs. despite extensive literature on dental care under cs in paediatric dentistry, no study has compared the behaviour of young patients during cs dental care based on the gas distribution system used. often we just find studies on one of the two systems but it has never been possible to compare the two on the same city. indeed, a system is more often developed in one region than in another. for example, in france, the premixed system with a naso-oral mask is the most used, while in the netherlands, it is the system with the two separate gases and a nasal mask. it is therefore difficult for the same observer to compare the behaviour of patients over the same period and in the same region. our situation in brussels, through the diversity of our linguistic communities, meant that, in the french-speaking university hospitals, the practitioners were trained in france and learned to use the emono system while in the dutch-speaking university hospitals, the practitioners were trained in the netherlands and have expertise in using the two-cylinder system. this study is therefore exceptional. the very special objective of this study is to compare the behaviour of children in care for dental care under cs according to the gas distribution system used. the observations were made in two cohorts of patients from paediatric dentistry department of two hospitals in the brussels (belgium) region, saint-pierre university hospital cesar de paepe site (cdp) and tandheelkundige kliniek (vub). inclusion criteria: every patient aged 2 to 18 admitted for dental consultation under conscious sedation between 10/11/2017 and 23/02/2018. the exclusion criteria correspond to the usual precautions required for dental care under conscious sedation. this study was reviewed and ethical permission was granted by the local hospital ethics committee of the saint-pierre university hospital in brussels (approval number o.m. 007) under the reference b076201734522. used at cdp, a fixed gas administration system (fix) is used (antafil ® , sol spa, monza, italy) consisting of a cylinder containing mixture of 50% o 2 and 50% n 2 o at a pressure of 185 bar at 15 °c. the flow rate is adjusted using a mechanical valve system to an average of 6 l/min. the gas is administered to the patient by a latex-free naso-oral mask (quadralite™, intersurgical, france) with a one-used antibacterial filter (clear-guard™, intersurgical, france) connected to the administration circuit (mapleson d deluxe bain breathing system, intersurgical, france) (picture 1 in esm). after at least 3 min of induction, the mask is placed on the nose, allowing access to the oral cavity for dental care. the second sedation system, used at vub, is parker's matrx mdm ® system (mix). this system is used with two gce medical bottles, one containing 100% o 2 at a pressure of 200 bar at 15 °c and the other containing 100% n 2 o at a pressure of 100 bar at 15 °c. each cylinder of gas is connected to the flowmeter. the gas is administered via a corrugated pipe from the flowmeter to the nasal mask (picture 2 in esm). this system is accompanied by a gauge, located on the flow meter, to adjust the percentage of oxygen and nitrous oxide that is administered to the patient. the flow rate is adjusted according to the respiratory rate of the patient. 6 l/min is recommended by the eapd guidelines. on the fix system, the flow can be adapted and we follow the inflation of the reservoir bag so that it is neither too tight, if not enough. it must be just flexible enough and allow visualisation of the respiratory rate by inflating and slightly deflating the reservoir bag. for the mix system, the maximum flow rate is set by the company but it is adapted at the start of the consultation before the titration by observing the inflation of the reservoir bag. patients were divided into four categories: young child (yc), phobic anxiety (pa), mental deficiency (md), occasional indication (oi) (collado et al. 2006) . yc are patients less than 5 years old, without mental development problems; pa are patients from the age of 5, without mental development problems, showing signs of anxiety or phobia during previous conventional dental care; md are patients from the age of 5, with a mental disability or a cognitive or behavioural disorder; oi are patients who could be treated conventionally but in which the dentist judged that they might benefit from cs for an intervention that could be more invasive such as an extraction after trauma or requested by the orthodontist. for this study, behaviour was assessed using the modified venham behavioural scale (picture 3 in esm) (hennequin et al. 2012 ), a hetero-assessment scale that measures the behaviour of young patients during conscious sedation dental care based on well-defined criteria (moura et al. 2016) . it is a descriptive scale of behaviour that can be used to record the behaviour of patients throughout the session according to a score ranging from 0 to 5 (veerkamp et al. 1993) . a training session was conducted using the visualisation of ten videos of young children with different behaviours during dental care. the behaviour score was noted at five time points: at the first contact with the patient, in the treatment room or in the waiting room (t0); when applying the mask on the face/ nose (t1); at the end of the induction, at least 3 min after the application of the mask (t2); when performing local anaesthesia (t3) and eventually during the intervention (t4). all observations were performed by a single, trained observer who did not participate in the clinical procedures. a form completed during the sessions included the patient's information: age, sex, medical history, session number, patient category, intervention performed and behavioural score. a treatment session was considered a success if sedation and care could be achieved and a failure when sedation or treatment could not be performed. the statistical analysis makes it possible to determine the differences in behavioural venham scores between the two populations during dental care after sedation at t2 and t3. the null hypothesis is that there is no difference between the means of the behavioural scores of the two groups at t2 and t3. behavioural scores are qualitative variables and we used the mann-whitney non-parametric u test for 2 independent samples for the statistical analyse or this variable. concerning the session number variable, the distribution does not follow a normal distribution, the medians of the two groups are compared with the mann-whitney nonparametric u test for 2 independent samples. the statistic analysis is performed using ibm spss v. 25.0 (spss inc., armonk, ny.) one observer attended 100 sessions of dental care under cs with 91 different patients. 44 patients at vub with the mix system (mix) and 47 patients at cdp with the fix system (fix), were treated by 6 operators, 3 at each site. in case a patient received several cs sessions, the last session was selected for the study. the total population observed had more female (55%) than male (45%) patients and the average age observed is 6.77 years. pa patients represent 62% of the population, followed by yc 27%. there were 8 md patients and only 2 oi cases. the success rate of acts performed was 95%, there was no significant difference between the two sites (p = 0.701, chi 2 test). among the cohort, five failures were noted, two in the md group, one in the pa group and two in yc group. these children were not cooperative and had to be referred to general anaesthesia. the median number of sessions was one for the mix and two for the fix cohort. the number of sessions was higher for the yc and pa group undergoing the fix protocol, 2 (p = 0.026) for yc and 3 (p < 0.001) for pa, mann-whitney test. the different independent variables are grouped in table 1 . in this table, we find the description of the cohorts in terms of age, gender, indication as well as the success of sedation and dental procedures performed during sedation. the distribution of venham scores in the yc group, the results are very comparable: at t2 and t3, there is no significant difference in behaviour between the two groups (p = 0.740 at t2 and p = 0.936 at t3) (fig. 1a) . for the pa group, the situation is different: more than half of fix pa had a score of 0 (21 patients) compared to mix pa (11 patients). then, there is a significant difference in behaviour between the two groups at t2 (p = 0.026). for the other scores, the number of pa presenting the scores 1, 2, 3 and 4 is more or less similar for the two groups. indeed, at t3, the mann-whitney non-parametric u test indicates that there is no significant difference in behaviour between the two groups (p = 0.223) (fig. 1b) . this study could demonstrate that no significant differences could be detected in children's behaviour under conscious sedation using different gas administration systems. slight behavioural differences could be observed due to possible operator or cohort effects. the strong points are: comparison between two gas administration systems with an identical measuring instrument used by the same observer. points of possible criticisms are: possible underpowered by the number of subjects, confounding effects such as cohort and operator. this confounding effects are reduced by video training for using the hetero-rating behaviour scale. all patients treated with conscious sedation have an initial consultation at the hospital to present them with the equipment, including the sedation mask. however, for many patients, and especially new patients, sedation is a new experience. faced with this novelty, some patients show opposing reactions that hamper their cooperation despite a preparatory consultation. these patients will then require steps to restore confidence and, if this is not enough and the dental situation deteriorates with pain and infections, it will be necessary to proceed to a step of dental care under general anaesthesia. the analysis of the number of sessions for the two categories of patients showed a significant difference for yc and highly significant for pa. repetition of sedation care allows uncooperative patients to better cope with long-term dental care (collado et al. 2006) . in a subsequent study, patients could be grouped according to the number of sessions already performed. then, pa patients would be observed during the first session under cs and during a second or third session. local anaesthesia is a special step in dental care because it causes an unpleasant sensation when the needle penetrates the mucosa, during the injection even if it is carried out with all the required precautions, including in particular an infiltration slow and controlled, and also at the time of the sensation of numbness of the tissues surrounding the injection area. this sensation can worry the patient and it is therefore essential to reassure him by effective verbal communication throughout the procedure. indeed, local anaesthesia is the most feared moment in dental care, even if the cause of anxious or phobic behaviour of the young child at the dentist is multifactorial locker et al. 2001) . the fear of the dentist is often associated with a negative experience, recalling the pain, during previous care. (risløv staugaard et al. 2017) . after observing children treated with both the two sedation systems, no differences in child behaviour attributable to a difference in gas administration method could be observed. the systems can be judged to be equivalent in clinical efficacy. the practitioner or hospital can then make a choice based on advantages and disadvantages found for each one of them. using the fixed gas administration system (fix), the advantage of the naso-oral mask is to involve the young child. by applying the tell-show-do technique for confidence-building, the patient participates with the practitioner in placing the mask on the mouth and nose. the mask being on the nose and the mouth: bilateral communication is possible between the practitioner and the young patient. the child can speak in the naso-oral mask while with the nasal mask only, if the child speaks, all the gas used for sedation escapes and the gas can no longer have its effect. the practitioner can communicate with the child and thus distract him from his environment (armfield and heaton 2013). the flow rate and the concentration being constant, the practitioner can concentrate easily on the care, taking into account the fact that the inhalation can be stopped at any time if necessary. using the gas mixing device (mix), the advantage of the nasal mask fixed and adapted to the patient is to reduce the gas leak. this gas leak can cause an adverse effect in healthcare professionals, frequently encountered during inhalation of n 2 o, including headache (field et al. 1993) . the gauge on the flow meter allows to adapt the flow rate according to the child's breathing throughout the treatment. a button also makes it possible to adapt the n 2 o concentration according to the observed heart rate. the practitioner can thus give the young child a concentration of less than 50% n 2 o. this system has a bottle of o 2 , recovery is by inhalation of pure o 2 for 5 min. using the fixed gas composition recovery is in ambient air or when needed a separate oxygen tank is available. in the literature, both systems have been analysed for air pollution. whether it is the premixed system or the two-cylinder system, air pollution remains below the recommended standards at european level (hennequin and onody 2004; gilchrist et al. 2007) . however, when the child cries, this atmospheric concentration of n 2 o increases. preparing the patient in terms of behaviour is therefore a prerequisite for management under conscious sedation. hennequin and onody (2004) specified in their article that demand valves can help to further reduce this environmental concentration of n2o. while in most parts of the world dentists use a two-bottle and nasal mask system, in france recent publications show that the use of the premixed system is still heavily used (prud'homme, dajean-trutaud, et al. 2019a, b) . each technique has its advantages and disadvantages, but being able to compare two teams, each with expertise in one of these methods, makes our study an exceptional work. this study was carried out before the covid-19 pandemic and therefore did not require advanced reflection about aerosol generating procedures. since march 2020, following the pandemic, great questions have been asked about the contamination of masks and circuits. for the premixed system (fix), the mask is for individual use, or even one-time use, and its cost is less than the nasal mask. in addition, it has a filter system as found in the operating room. for the two-bottle system, there is a choice between disposable or sterilizable masks. as it does not have an antibacterial filter, it is necessary to sterilise the entire circuit. the investment is greater because it is necessary to provide one circuit per patient and to have an adequate sterilisation service, such as central hospital sterilisation. the aapd advises the systematic use of the pulse oximeter for conscious sedation but this advice comes during 2018 and our data collection carried out in 2017-2018 (aapd 2018). then, we based ourselves on the eapd guidelines which specify that the use of pulse oximetry, although interesting, is not essential because it would cause additional stress to the child (hallonsten et al. 2005) . during our study, we wanted to observe the behaviour of children in a usual framework of care outside the study. while pulse oximetry is recorded for each patient at the vub site, this is not the case at cdp where the eapd guidelines were followed. we find this same notion in the belgian national recommendations in all cases, monitoring is performed by a dental assistant (mix) or a paediatric nurse (fix), both trained in the use of the sedation system and in monitoring the patient's respiratory functions (coté and wilson 2019) . in a subsequent study, the use of the heart rate function of the pulse oximeter is of great interest for a further assessment of patient stress (appelhans and luecken 2006) . despite the differences between sites and practitioners in terms of training in conscious sedation (obtained in dutch in the netherlands for vub practitioners and in french in france for cdp practitioners), very few significant differences were found in the statistical analysis. further study could be done with the same practitioner using both sedation systems on the same population. this approach would be interesting to compare only the two systems but we would lose the diversity factor present in this study. considering the limitations of the present study the following conclusions can be made: • no significant differences detected in children's behaviour under conscious sedation using different gas administration systems. • the delicate stage of local anaesthesia facilitated with repeated sessions of dental care under cs. guideline on use of nitrous oxide for pediatric dental patients heart rate variability as an index of regulated emotional responding management of fear and anxiety in the dental clinic: a review avis 9299-protoxyde d'azote. spf santé publique the success of inhalation sedation for comprehensive dental care within the community dental service nitrous oxide analgesia for minor pediatric surgical procedures: an effective alternative to conscious sedation? modification of behavior with 50% nitrous oxide/oxygen conscious sedation over repeated visits for dental treatment a 3-year prospective study guidelines for monitoring and management of pediatric patients before, during, and after sedation for diagnostic and therapeutic procedures effect of nitrous oxide on cerebral blood flow in normal humans a prospective study of the use of nitrous oxide inhalation sedation for dental treatment in anxious children inhalation conscious sedation with nitrous oxide and oxygen as alternative to general anesthesia in precooperative, fearful, and disabled pediatric dental patients: a large survey on 688 working sessions exposure to nitrous oxide in a paediatric dental unit eapd guidelines on sedation in paediatric dentistry nitrous oxide analgesia and children's perception of pain pollution level during inhalation sedation with a 50%n2o/50%o2 premix: comparison of two administration devices. ann francaises d'anesthesie et de reanim a clinical trial of efficacy and safety of inhalation sedation with a 50% nitrous oxide/oxygen premix (kalinox tm ) in general practice psychological disorder, conditioning experiences, and the onset of dental anxiety in early adulthood how do observational scales correlate the ratings of children's behavior during pediatric procedural sedation? determinants of early-vs late-onset dental fear in a longitudinal-epidemiological study effect of nitrous oxide-oxygen inhalation with scavenging on behavioral and physiological parameters during routine pediatric dental treatment assessment of an equimolar mixture of oxygen and nitrous oxide: effects in pediatric dentistry the meopaedent trial protocol-an observational study of the equimolar mixture of oxygen and nitrous oxide (emono) effects in paediatric dentistry the role of negative and positive memories in fear of dental treatment dental treatment of fearful children using nitrous oxide part 3: anxiety during sequential visits publisher's note springer nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations all authors declare having no financial interest or conflict of interest. key: cord-027118-2xm8nkmi authors: sevastianov, leonid a.; lovetskiy, konstantin p.; kulyabov, dmitry s. title: an effective stable numerical method for integrating highly oscillating functions with a linear phase date: 2020-06-15 journal: computational science iccs 2020 doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-50417-5_3 sha: doc_id: 27118 cord_uid: 2xm8nkmi a practical and simple stable method for calculating fourier integrals is proposed, effective both at low and at high frequencies. an approach based on the fruitful idea of levin, which allows the use of the collocation method to approximate the slowly oscillating part of the antiderivative of the desired integral, allows reducing the calculation of the integral of a rapidly oscillating function (with a linear phase) to solving a system of linear algebraic equations with a triangular or hermitian matrix. the choice of gauss-lobatto grid nodes as collocation points let to increasing the efficiency of the numerical algorithm for solving the problem. to avoid possible numerical instability of the algorithm, we proceed to the solution of a normal system of linear algebraic equations. the initial formulation of the method of numerical integration of highly oscillating functions by levin and his followers suggests a possible ambiguity in finding the antiderivative: any solution to the differential equation without boundary (initial) conditions can be used to calculate the desired value of the integral. levin's approach [1] to the integration of highly oscillating functions consists in the transition to the calculation of the antiderivative function from the integrand using the collocation procedure in physical space. in this case, the elements of the degenerate [2] differentiation matrix of the collocation method [3] are a function of the coordinates of the grid points, the matrix elements are calculated using very simple formulas. in books [3, 4] various options for the implementation of this method are considered, many applied problems are solved. the method proposed by levin both in the one-dimensional and in the multidimensional case was published by him in articles [1, 9] , and then he was thoroughly studied in [10] . the method is presented in great detail in the famous monograph [4] , which describes the evolution of numerical methods for integrating rapidly oscillating functions over the past fifteen years. there are a large number of works using various approaches in order to propose fast and stable methods for solving systems of linear algebraic equations (slae) that arise when implementing the collocation method. however, many of them [5] [6] [7] encounter difficulties in solving the corresponding systems of linear equations. in particular, the use in specific implementations of the levin collocation method in the physical space of degenerate chebyshev differentiation matrices, which also have eigenvalues differing by orders of magnitude, makes it impossible to construct a stable numerical algorithm for solving the resulting slaes. the approach to solving the differential equation of the levin method, described in [5, 6, 8] , is based on the approximation of the solution, as well as the integrand phase and amplitude functions in the form of expansion into finite series in chebyshev polynomials. moreover, to improve the properties of the algorithms, and hence the matrices of the corresponding slaes, three-term recurrence relations are used that connect the values of chebyshev polynomials of close orders. however, these improvements are not enough to ensure stable calculation of integrals with large matrix dimensions. in our work, we consider a method of constructing a primitive, based on the spectral representation of the desired function. we propose increasing the efficiency of the algorithm by reducing the corresponding system of linear equations to a form that is always successfully solved using the lu-decomposition method with partial selection of the leading element. consider the integral that often occurs in fourier analysis -in applications related to signal processing, digital images, cryptography and many other areas of science and technology. in accordance with the levin method, the calculation of this integral reduces to solving an ordinary differential equation as argued in [1] , the system (2) has a particular solution which is not rapidly oscillatory, and we shall look for an approximation to this particular solution by collocation with 'nice' functions, e.g. polynomials. if the unknown function p(x) is a solution of eq. (2), then the result of integration can be obtained according to the formula below we will consider the special case of integration of a highly oscillating function with a linear phase, reduced to the standard form this can be justified, in particular, by the fact that in many well-known publications [7, 11, 12] stable transformations are discussed in detail, which make it possible to proceed from a general integral with a nonlinear phase to an integral in standard form (on the interval [−1, 1]) with a linear phase. in the paper by levin [1] , to automatically exclude the rapidly oscillating component ce àixx of the general solution p x ð þ ¼ p 0 x ð þ þ ce àixg x ð þ , it is proposed to search for a numerical solution (2) based on the collocation method, using its expansion in a basis of slowly oscillating functions, rather than using difference schemes (or methods of the runge-kutta type). in this case, the following statement is true [2] : statement. the solution of eq. (2) obtained using the levin collocation method is a slowly oscillating function o x à1 ð þ for x ) 1. let us consider in more detail the problem of finding the antiderivative integrand, or rather, the approximating polynomial p x ð þ, satisfying condition (2) in a given number of points on the interval [−1, 1]. consider the spectral method of finding an approximating function in the form of expansion in a finite series in the basis of chebyshev polynomials of the first kind t k x ð þ f g 1 k¼0 , defined in the hilbert space of functions on the interval [−1, 1]. the application of the collocation method to solve the problem p 0 x ð þ þ ixp x ð þ ¼ f x ð þ leads to the need to fulfill the following equalities for the desired coefficients at the collocation points x 0 ; x 1 ; . . .; x n f g . the last statement is equivalent to the fact that the coefficients c k ; k ¼ 0; . . .; n should be a solution to the system of linear algebraic equations of the collocation method: we represent the values of the derivative of the desired function (polynomial) at the collocation points in the form of the product dp ¼ p 0 of the matrix d by the vector of values of p. recall that the chebyshev differentiation matrix d has the standard representation in the physical space [3] (7) we reduce it to a system of linear algebraic equations here e is an identity matrix, f is a vector of values of the amplitude function on the grid. denote by b the differentiation matrix in the frequency (spectral) space [13] , whose coefficients are explicitly expressed as where 0 i; j n and r i ¼ & denote by t the chebyshev matrix of mapping a point (vector) from the space of coefficients to the space of values of the function [14] . given that p ¼ tc is the vector of values of the desired function (also in physical space), the components of the derivative vector can be written as dp ¼ tbc [14] . as a result, we obtain the system of linear algebraic equations equivalent to system (9), which is valid for an arbitrary grid on the interval [−1, 1]. we write eq. (11) in detail where to reduce the formulas we used the notation t kj ¼ t k x j à á ; k; j ¼ 0; . . .; n. the product of a non-degenerate matrix t by a non-degenerate triangular matrix b þ ixe is a non-degenerate matrix. therefore, the system of linear algebraic eqs. (12) has a unique solution. statement 1. the solution of this system of linear algebraic equations with respect to the coefficients c ¼ c 0 ; c 1 ; . . .; c n ð þallows us to approximate the antiderivative function in the form of a series (5) and calculate the approximate value of the integral by formula (4). system (12) is valid for an arbitrary grid on the interval [−1, 1]. however, consideration of the collocation problem on a gauss-lobatto grid allows significant simplification of this system of linear algebraic equations. first, we multiply the first and last equations from (12) by 1= ffiffi ffi 2 p to obtain an equivalent "modified" system with a new matrixt (instead of t), which is good because it has the property of discrete "orthogonality" and, therefore, is non-degenerate. therefore, multiplying it on the left by its transposed one gives the diagonal matrix: we use this property and multiply the reduced (modified) system (12) on the left by the transposed matrixt t , thereby reducing it to the upper triangular form. indeed, the matrix of the resulting system is calculated as the product of the diagonal matrix by the triangular matrix, which, in turn, is the sum of the chebyshev differentiation matrix in the spectral space and the diagonal matrix. since the matrixt t is non-degenerate, the new system of linear algebraic equations is equivalent to system (12) and has a unique solution. taking into account the specific values of the chebyshev polynomials on the gauss-lobatto grid [15] , simplifies the system, bringing it to the form ð13þ . . .; n and symbol p 00 denotes a sum in which the first and last terms are additionally multiplied by 1/2. by the kronecker-capelli theorem, the system of linear algebraic eqs. (13) with a square matrix and a non-zero determinant is not only solvable for any vector of the right-hand side, but also has a unique solution. (13) has a stable solution. statement 3. to solve system (13) , no more than ( $ n 2 =4) operations of addition/subtraction and multiplication/division with a floating point are required. algorithms for solving systems of linear equations such as the gauss method or the lu-decomposition work well when the matrix of the system has the property of diagonal dominance. otherwise, standard solution methods lead to the accumulation of rounding errors. a stable solution to the system may be provided by the lu-decomposition method with a partial choice of a leading element. for the triangular matrix (13) , there is no forward pass (in which the leading element is selected) of the lu-decomposition, and the back pass of the method is always implemented without the selection of leading element. a solution to system (13) can still be unstable in the case when ix j j 2n. passing to the solution of the normal system, that is, to the problem of minimizing the residual ac àf 2 , multiplying the system of eqs. (13) on the left by the hermitian conjugate matrix we transform the matrix of the system (13) to the hermitian form. although the system of linear equations became more filled, since instead of upper triangle three-diagonal matrix a system of linear equations with all matrix elements filled appeared, its computational properties are cardinally improved. the resulting matrix of a system of linear algebraic equations is hermitian, its eigenvalues are real, and the eigenvectors form an orthonormal system. the method of lu-decomposition with a partial choice of the leading element, due to the properties of the resulting matrix, provides [17] the stability of the numerical algorithm for finding the only solution to the system. let us describe the sequence of operations of the presented algorithm for calculating the integral of a rapidly oscillating function of the form (1) with a linear phase. input data preprocessing. 1. if the integral is given on the interval a; b ½ , we pass to the standard domain of integration à1; 1 ½ by changing the variables x ¼ bàa fill by columns the chebyshev transformation matrix t from (12) using only one pass of the recursive method for calculating the values of chebyshev polynomials of the first kind of the n-th order. 3. calculate the vector of the right-hand side of system (13). 4. fill in the elements of the sparse matrix (13) , which depend only on the dimension n and the phase value x. 5. if x j j[ 2n, then go to step 6. otherwise go to step 7. 6. the matrix of system (13) is a matrix with a diagonal dominance and can be stably solved. the solution values at the boundary points are used to determine the desired antiderivative values. go to step 8. 7. multiply relation (13) on the left by the conjugate matrix to obtain a hermitian matrix (14) with diagonal dominance. in this case, to determine the values of the antiderivative at the boundary points the normal solution is stably determined using the lu-decomposition with a partial choice of the leading element. 8. we calculate the values of the antiderivative at the ends of the interval using the formulas p 1 ð þ ¼ p n j¼0 c j ; and p à1 ð þ ¼ p n j¼0;jàeven c j à p n j¼0;jàodd c j . the desired value of the integral is obtained using the formula i f ; x ð þ ¼ p 1 ð þe ix à p à1 ð þe àix . 6 numerical examples example 1. we give an example of calculating the integral when, for a good polynomial approximation of a slowly oscillating factor of the integrand, it is necessary to use polynomials of high degrees. this integral is given by olver ( [16] , p. 6) as an example of the fact that the gmres method allows one to calculate the integral much more accurately than the levin collocation method. however, in his article, solving the resulting system of linear algebraic equations requires o n 3 ð þ operations, as in the levin collocation method using the gaussian elimination algorithm (table 1) . a comparison of our results at 40 interpolation points with the results of [16] shows a significant gain in accuracy: the deviation from the exact solution is of the order of 10 à17 compared with the deviation of the order of 10 −7 in olver's article. the proposed algorithm to achieve an accuracy of 10 −13 in the calculation of the integral uses no more than 30 points (n 30þ for x = 1,…, 100. example 2. as a second example, we consider the integral from [16] , where the results of calculating the integrals depending on the number of approximation points are illustrated on fig. 1 [16] . à á and the integral can be written as: let us consider the calculation of this integral for various values of the parameter x using an algorithm that takes into account the linearity of the phase function ( table 2 ). the proposed algorithm to achieve an accuracy of 10 à16 when calculating the integral uses no more than 90 points (n 90) with x = 0.1, …, 100. a significant gain in the number of addition/subtraction and multiplication/division operations is achieved when the frequency value is greater than the number n, which ensures the diagonal dominance of the system of linear algebraic equations in the matrix (13) (fig. 2) . it is useful to compare the algorithm we developed for finding the integrals of rapidly oscillating functions with the results of [5] , which presents various and carefully selected numerical examples for various classes of amplitude functions. example 3. consider the calculation of the integral with an exponential function as the amplitude ð þ e ixx dx; a ¼ 16; 64; x ¼ 20; 1000: the exact value of the integral can be calculated by the formula i a; x ð þ ¼ 2ãe àa sinh a þ ix ð þ a þ ix ð þ [5] . the plot of the deviation of the integral calculated by us from the exact one depending on the number of collocation points (absolute error) is shown in fig. 3 . comparison with the results of [5] shows that the accuracy of calculating the integrals practically coincides with that of [5] . our advantage is the much simpler form of the matrix of a system of linear equations. in the best case, when |x| > n matrix of the system is a triangular matrix with a dominant main diagonal. if n > |x|, then the transition to the search for a normal solution to a system with a positively defined hermitian matrix allows us to create a numerically stable solution scheme. example 4. in this example [5] , the rapidly oscillating function e i2pax is considered as the amplitude one. it is clear that in this case, to achieve the same accuracy in calculating the integral as in the previous example, a larger number of collocation points will be required (fig. 4) . e i2pax e ixx dx; a ¼ 5; 10; x ¼ 20; 1000: ð19þ example 5. the example demonstrates the calculation of the integral in the case when the amplitude function is the generating function of the chebyshev polynomials of the first kind. 1 à a 2 1 à 2ax þ a 2 e ixx dx; a ¼ 0:8; 0:9; x ¼ 20; 1000: the behaviour of the amplitude function should lead to an almost linear dependence of the approximation accuracy on the number of points for various values of the parameters a and x. numerical experiments carried out confirm this assertion (fig. 5 ). moreover, the accuracy of calculating the integrals is not inferior to the accuracy of the methods of [5] . the example is rather complicated for interpolation by chebyshev polynomials. to achieve acceptable accuracy (10 à18 ), the deviation of the calculated value of the integral from the exact one requires about 300 approximation points both for small values of x ¼ 20 and for large x ¼ 1000 (fig. 6 ). example 7. we give an example of integration when the amplitude function has second-order singularities at both ends of the integration interval the value of this integral can be calculated in an analytical form: f x ð þ ¼ 3pj 2 x ð þ=x 2 . we present the numerical values of the integral for various values of the frequency: i 20 ð þ ¼ à0:00377795409950960, i 1000 ð þ¼à2:33519886790130 â 10 à7 (fig. 7) . similar to the previous example, to achieve good accuracy in calculating the integral, it is necessary to consider a large number of collocation points. however, for this type of amplitude functions, the method presented in the article works reliably both in the case of low and high frequencies. the given examples demonstrate that the dependence of the solution on the number of approximation points is similar to the dependence demonstrated in olver [17] and hasegawa [5] . the advantage of our approach is the simplicity of the algorithm and the high speed of solving the resulting very simple system of linear algebraic equations. if it is necessary to repeatedly integrate various amplitude functions at a constant frequency, multiple gains are possible due to the use of the same lu-decomposition backtracking procedure. a simple, effective, and stable method for calculating the integrals of highly oscillating functions with a linear phase is proposed. it is based on levin's brilliant idea, which allows the use of the collocation method to approximate the antiderivative of the desired integral. using the expansion in slowly oscillating polynomials provides a slowly changing solution of the differential equation. the transition from a solution in physical space to a solution in spectral space makes it possible to effectively use the discrete orthogonality property of the chebyshev mapping matrix on a gauss-lobatto grid. with this transformation, the uniqueness of the solution of the studied system is preserved, and its structure from a computational point of view becomes easier. there are a large number of works using various approaches aimed to offer fast and effective methods for solving slaes that arise when implementing the collocation method. however, many methods [5, 6] encounter instability when solving the corresponding systems of linear equations. when using chebyshev differentiation matrices in physical space, instability is explained primarily by the degeneracy of these matrices and the huge spread of eigenvalues of the matrix of the collocation method system. the approach to solving the differential equation based on the representation of the solution, as well as the phase and amplitude functions, in the form of expansion in finite series by chebyshev polynomials and the use of three-term recurrence relations [5, 6, 8] also does not provide a stable calculation for n > |x|. to overcome instability, various methods of regularizing the systems under study are proposed. in our work, we propose a new method for improving computational properties by preconditioning of the system in the spectral representation and by searching for its pseudo-normal solution. the proposed method has been reduced to solving a slae with a hermitian matrix. a number of numerical examples demonstrates the advantages of the proposed effective stable numerical method for integrating rapidly oscillating functions with a linear phase. procedures for computing one-and two-dimensional integrals of functions with rapid irregular oscillations filon and levin methods in: computing highly oscillatory integrals chebyshev polynomials computing highly oscillatory integrals a user-friendly method for computing indefinite integrals of oscillatory functions stability and error estimates for filon-clenshaw-curtis rules for highly oscillatory integrals an improved levin quadrature method for highly oscillatory integrals a well-conditioned levin method for calculation of highly oscillatory integrals and its application fast integration of rapidly oscillatory functions moment-free numerical integration of highly oscillatory functions a comparison of some methods for the evaluation of highly oscillatory integrals an alternative method for irregular oscillatory integrals over a finite range a practical guide to pseudospectral methods regularized computation of oscillatory integrals with stationary points integration of highly oscillatory functions fast, numerically stable computation of oscillatory integrals with stationary points gmres shifted for oscillatory integrals acknowledgement. the publication has been prepared with the support of the "rudn university program 5-100". key: cord-259958-46e7xb7b authors: marfori, cherie q.; klebanoff, jordan s.; wu, catherine z.; barnes, whitney a.; carter-brooks, charelle m.; amdur, richard l. title: reliability and validity of two surgical prioritization systems for reinstating non-emergent benign gynecologic surgery during the covid-19 pandemic date: 2020-07-30 journal: j minim invasive gynecol doi: 10.1016/j.jmig.2020.07.024 sha: doc_id: 259958 cord_uid: 46e7xb7b study objective: scientifically evaluate the validity and reproducibility of two novel surgical triaging systems, as well as offer modifications to the ments criteria for improved application in gynecologic surgeries design: retrospective cohort study setting: academic university hospital patients: 97 patients with delayed benign gynecologic procedures due to the covid-19 pandemic intervention(s): surgical prioritization was assessed using two novel scoring systems, the gyn-ments and mesas systems for all 93 patients included measurements and main results: the inter-rater reliability and validity of two novel surgical prioritization systems (gyn-ments and mesas) were assessed. gyn-ments scores were calculated by three raters and analyzed as continuous variables, with a lower score indicating more urgency/priority. the mesas score was calculated by two raters and analyzed as a 3-level ordinal variable with a higher score indicating more urgency/priority. all five raters were blinded to reduce bias. gyn-ments inter-rater reliability was tested using spearman r and paired t-tests were used to detect systematic differences between raters. weighted kappa indicated mesas reliability. concurrent validity with mesas and surgeon self-prioritization (ssp) was examined with spearman r and logistic regression. spearman r's for all gyn-ments rater pairs were above 0.80 (0.84 for 1 vs. 2, 0.82 for 1 vs. 3, 0.82 for 2 vs. 3, all p<.0001) indicating strong agreement. the weighted kappa for the 2 mesas raters was 0.57 (95% ci 0.40-0.73) indicating moderate agreement. when used together, both scores were significantly independently associated with ssp, with strong discrimination (auc 0.89). conclusions: inter-rater reliability is acceptable for both scoring systems, and concurrent validity of each is moderate for predicting ssp, but discrimination improves to a high level when they are used together. the respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus sars-cov-2 has upended global healthcare delivery. in march 2020, the american college of surgeons (acs), the us surgeon general, and the centers for medicare & medicaid services (cms) all made recommendations to cancel elective surgery throughout the us in order to preserve resources to treat those critically ill and to reduce transmission between doctors and patients. [1] [2] [3] however, the term elective does not mean unnecessary, and postponement of these surgeries may lead to significant morbidity or even mortality. surgeons are faced with the potentially overwhelming and morally exhausting task of prioritizing postponed patients within their departments and hospital systems. in response, the american college of surgeons (acs) developed a tiered ranking system for prioritization of elective surgeries based on the risk of delay and patient co-morbidities, the elective surgery acuity scale (esas). 4 while this system provides a framework, many hospitals and surgeons find implementation difficult given its vagueness. recognizing these limitations, the society for gynecologic surgeons (sgs) issued a joint statement which applied the acs tier to numerous benign gynecologic procedures to serve as a guide of acuity. 5 additionally, a third and novel scoring system by prachand et al serves to individually rank nonemergent surgeries coined medically-necessary, time-sensitive (ments) procedures. 6 this scoring system attempts to objectively prioritize surgeries by grading 21 factors within the broad categories of procedure variables, disease state, and comorbidities. all of these scoring systems are based on expert opinion and consensus, and none have been externally validated nor tested for reliability. at our institution, the division of benign gynecologic surgery incurred a large number of case cancellations with the orders to halt elective surgery. we recognized a need for a reproduceable system beyond a three-tiered scale to help triage and prioritize affected patients. we took great interest in the ments tool as a potential solution. while our institution elected not to adapt the ments criteria system-wide, our division sought to critically evaluate it as a solution to ethically and efficiently prioritize patients beyond the acs criteria. our objective was to scientifically evaluate the validity and reproducibility of both of these triaging systems, as well as offer modifications to the ments criteria for improved application in gynecologic surgeries. after obtaining irb exemption (irb#ncr202525), we performed a single-center retrospective cohort study evaluating the inter-rater reliability and validity of two novel prioritization systems, the sgs adaptation of the esas (mesas) and a modified version of the ments tool (gyn-ments). a total of 97 benign gynecologic procedures were affected between march 16, 2020 and april 30, 2020 in our tertiary academic institution in washington, dc, including cases from eight general obstetrician gynecologists, two minimally-invasive gynecologic surgeons, a urogynecologist, and a gynecologic oncologist. we excluded three patients who had not completed their preoperative evaluations and thus the severity of their disease was unclear. one additional patient was excluded given she suffered from a sub-arachnoid hemorrhage and was no longer eligible for her planned procedure. beginning march 16, as required by our hospital system, all patients were categorized by their respective surgeons into one of three categories based on their level of morbidity if delayed. level 1 indicated no morbidity with delay, level 2 indicated some morbidity with delay, and level 3 indicated significant morbidity and/or mortality with delay. only those deemed level 3 were initially allowed to proceed as scheduled. level 1 and 2 would be postponed until further notice, likely to extend 2-3 months. for the purpose of the validity analysis, those patients who were allowed to proceed with surgery will be referred to as "urgent ssp". the esas scale divides elective surgeries into three tiers, low acuity (tier 1) defined as "non life-threatening illness", intermediate acuity (tier 2) defined as "nonlife-threatening but with potential for future morbidity and mortality", and high acuity (tier 3). additionally, each tier is further divided into subtype a (healthy patients) or subtype b (unhealthy patients) to better discriminate patient risk and hospital resource use. the acs recommended proceeding with tier 3 surgery and postponing tier 1 and 2 surgery (or performing at an ambulatory surgery-center). 4 the joint statement published by sgs on april 28 applied the acs tiered system to numerous benign gynecologic procedures ( figure 1 ). 5 this framework categorizes specific surgical procedures taking into consideration their indications and severity of disease symptoms. two authors (wab and cmcb) assigned all patients into one of the three mesas tiers by reviewing the patient's electronic medical record. these authors were queried about their awareness of the alternative ments scoring system and, after finding them unfamiliar, were instructed to intentionally proceed in this manner to reduce potential bias towards another scoring system. the original ments scoring criteria attempts to objectively prioritize surgeries by grading 21 factors within the broad categories of procedure variables, disease state, and comorbidities. 6 the cumulative score ranges between 21 and 105 and serves as a rank in priority, with lower numbers equating to greater priority (table 1) . higher scores equate to poorer perioperative outcomes, higher hospital resource utilization, increased risk of covid-19 transmission, and an increased ability to safely defer surgery. when attempting to apply the ments model to our gynecologic patients, we felt adaptations could be made to improve clarity, objectivity, and validity. specific adaptations made to the original ments score included ( 3. instead of calculating "non-operative treatment effectiveness percentage" and "exposure risk", we transformed these two variables into five distinct categories pertinent to the gyn surgical patient including: whether and how many alternative therapies have been tried, the presence/severity of pain, the presence/severity of anemia, the impact on desired immediate fertility, and the impact on adjacent genitourinary and gastrointestinal systems. 6. removing the variable "influenza-like illness symptoms." in our opinion, any patient demonstrating these symptoms should continue to be delayed until resolution. 7. limiting the options for "exposure to known covid positive patient in the last 14 days" to improve reproducibility. at our institution, we implemented universal covid testing for all patients undergoing emergent and scheduled surgery. three authors (cqm, jsk, czw) adapted and applied the modified gyn-ments scoring system to all patients. all five authors were blinded to each other's scores to reduce bias. authors could not be blinded from the surgeons' self-prioritization (urgent ssp) given these surgeries were performed as scheduled and could be elicited from chart review. variables. gyn-ments scores were calculated by three reviewers and analyzed as continuous variables with possible scores ranging from 21-105. the lower the score, the more prioritized the surgery would be. the mesas score was calculated by two different reviewers and analyzed as a three-level ordinal variable (1/2/3) with a higher score indicating more urgency/prioritization. finally, the ssp score was made into a binary variable with those considered highest priority (urgent ssp) separated from those considered lower priority. reliability. the three gyn-ments raters' scores were examined using spearman r to determine the level of monotonic association, and paired t-tests to determine whether there were systematic differences between raters. a relevant systematic difference was indicated by a mean difference > 0.1 along with a significant difference on the paired t-test. if all spearman r's were above 0.80, this indicated strong inter-rater reliability. in order to determine which gyn-ments items had the worst reliability, agreement between raters' gyn-ments item scores were examined using percent exact agreement, rather than kappa, because raters used different numbers of categories on several items. concurrent validity. we took the mean of the gyn-ments scores and examined the spearman r of this score with the mean of the mesas scores, and with urgent ssp as measured by actual scheduling (a binary variable, yes/no). concurrent validity for the gyn-ments score was indicated by strong spearman r with both the mesas score and with urgent ssp. we also examined whether urgent ssp could be predicted independently using both the gyn-ments score and the mesas rating in a multivariable logistic regression model. if both were significant independent predictors, we then used the log-linear equation produced by the regression model to calculate each patient's probability of being classified as urgent ssp and examined the association of probability quartile with urgent ssp status using chi-square. we examined the distribution of mesas rating with the gyn-ments scores achieving the highest 67%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90% and 95% of urgency levels using chi-square. sas (version 9.4, cary, nc) was used for data analysis, with p<.05 considered significant. the mean ± sd gyn-ments score for raters 1, 2, and 3 were 58.0 ± 4.8, 59.2 ± 4.3, and 58.0 ± 5.0, respectively. gyn-ments scores for raters 1 and 3 did not differ p=.002), after adjusting for the mesas score. when the probabilities derived from this model were coded into quartiles, the incidence of being urgent ssp was 75% in the highest priority quartile, 14% and 12% in the middle two quartiles, and 0% in the lowest quartile (p<.0001). the equation for calculating probabilities is in appendix i. the 67th, 75th, 80th, 85th, 90th, and 95th percentiles of gyn-ments score are shown in table 4 . in order to make it easier to visualize these relationships, we coded the gyn-ments into three levels: low, medium and high priority, based on quartiles: the lowest quartile of scores is highest priority, middle two quartiles are medium priority, and the highest quartile of scores is the lowest priority. we then compared these three levels of gyn-ments urgency and the three levels of sgs urgency, with the urgent ssp (table 5 ). comparing gyn-ments to urgent ssp, we found that from the highest priority quartile on gyn-ments to the lowest, 52%, 23%, and 4% of patients were urgent ssp (p=.0009). for patients with mesas levels of high, moderate, and low priority, the percentages found within the urgent ssp category were 88%, 36% and 10%, respectively (p<.0001). when looking only at the 12 of 24 patients who were deemed the "highest priority" by the ssp scheme and their surgeries performed without delay, the mesas system was able to capture 92% of these patients in its most urgent quartile, while the gyn-ments system captured only 67% in its most urgent quartile. despite finding overall high inter-rater reproducibility in the gyn-ments scoring system (spearman r 0.82-0.84), it does not appear this scoring system strongly discriminates the most urgent cases as determined by either the mesas system (spearman r 0.31) or when surgeons proceed using their instinct alone, the ssp (spearman r 0.46). the inter-rater reproducibility of the mesas tiered system was moderate (weighted kappa 0.57), and it appears to perform slightly better in discerning how surgeons instinctively prioritize (spearman r 0.53). in fact, the mesas system identified 92% of the most urgent ssp patients while the gyn-ments found only 67%. however, when used together, the two scoring systems had high discrimination in capturing clinicians' instinctive beliefs about urgency, and each contributed independently, suggesting that a) they capture distinct issues related to urgency, and b) their combined use may provide the optimal system for objectively rating surgical urgency. despite seeing merit in the original scoring system, we felt additional steps could be taken to make the ments model more objective, yielding higher inter-observer reliability. our goal was to create a modified gynecologic ments that would still score in comparable ranges to the original in the event our institution later decided to prioritize by this route. most modifications were made within the disease factors category. we felt the category should be given more weight of importance (with more scored items) and tailored to the disease burden gynecologic patients uniquely incur. thus, we expanded the number of scoring categories and created objective criteria for quantifying pain, anemia, fertility impact, and impact on adjacent organ systems such as the genitourinary and gastrointestinal systems. while we agree that exposure to known covid-19 should be considered, we recommend that, if available, all patients undergoing scheduled surgery be tested for covid-19 within 48 hours of their planned surgery and delayed if found positive. if testing is unavailable, we recommend screening all elective surgery patients for influenza-like symptoms, and surgery postponed if present. given the reports of significantly worsened morbidity and mortality when surgery is unwittingly performed in pre-symptomatic covid-19 patients, all attempts to identify these patients should be made. 9, 10 additionally, universal covid-19 testing protects health care workers from unnecessary exposure, as well as creates a binary ppe triaging system to "standard precautions" or "transmission-based precautions" to protect scare resources. despite our attempts to make the scoring system as objective as possible, many categories are open to wider interpretation than it may first seem. we recommend, prior to implementing the scoring system, an initial dialogue to "lay the ground rules" occurs to improve reviewer reproducibility and thus reliability across the cohort. for example: 1. lung disease. attempt to define what constitutes 'minimal' disease. our system did not capture smoking history other than a binary yes/no. quantifying risk of disease in a pack/year history calculation may prove beneficial as smoking impacts risks of both respiratory disease and wound healing with direct impact on outcomes. it is also becoming increasingly known that lung disease, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (copd) and asthma, can worsen patient outcomes in the setting of covid, independent of their usual perioperative risks. 11 2. surgical team size. we agreed team size would be calculated by the minimum number of surgeons needed to perform a procedure safely and efficiently. in an academic teaching institution, the size of surgical teams can easily be twice the actual number needed. thus, all hysteroscopy (that did not require intraoperative sonography) was scored a one, and almost all laparoscopy a two. when constant uterine manipulation was needed, a score of three was given to laparoscopy. 3. or time. at our institution, we are asked to provide estimates of "wheels-in" to "wheels-out" rather than "incision-to-closure" time when posting cases. as long as consistency is applied across graders, this variable has the potential to be reliable. given surgeon notoriety around being poor predictors of needed surgical time, it is not surprising that this variable performed among the worst in inter-rater agreement. 1. pain. despite our attempt to objectively define pain using a vas system and incorporating ability to control this pain based on frequency of office or er visits, our inter-rater agreement remained fair (agreement = 57%) ( table 3) . this was due, in large part, to provider differences in documentation of pain, its impact on quality of life, and the ability to control pain with medical management. 2. alternative therapy. despite our attempt to objectively quantitate numbers of alternative therapies tried and incorporating the frequency of office visits to maintain therapy, our inter-rater agreement was poor (agreement = 34%) despite our extensive list of what constitutes alternative therapy in the table 2 footnotes. we feel this was due to difficulty in abstracting this information from charts. 3. prediction of peri-operative transfusion. we agree the presence of anemia can be inconsequential when it comes to procedures with a risk of low blood loss. the counter is true as well; high blood loss procedures can be tolerated when the patient has no baseline anemia. the most important question, particularly during a time of blood shortage, is whether and to what degree the patient will need perioperative blood products. finding an objective way to quantify this risk was difficult, a problem compounded by surgeons' inability to reliably predict estimates of ebl (agreement = 73%). 4. cardiovascular disease. while simplifying the determination of heart disease to represent the number of medications it takes to control it, care should be taken to avoid this simple assumption. patients with untreated hypertension may carry significantly more heart disease than patients well-controlled on three medications due simply to their access to health care and compliance with recommended therapy. 5. emphasis on hospital resource utilization with a bias towards the young, healthy patient. perhaps the biggest limitation to the gyn-ments scoring system is its favor towards quick procedures on young, healthy patients. despite our attempts to increase the weight of disease burden by adding more graded variables, young and healthy patients getting quick, elective procedures (such as tubal ligation or polypectomy) were consistently prioritized in this grading system. while not an invalid conclusion when a hospital system is severely limited in its capacity to do anything but the most quick and simple of procedures on healthy patients, it would be difficult to justify, for example, elective sterilization over treatment of debilitating pain from endometriosis, especially if patients have access to alternative contraception. in our institution, despite receiving some of the lowest gyn-ments scores, patients requesting sterilization are not being prioritized at this time. 6. we also must acknowledge that many of our changes to the original ments scoring system could be specific to the study institution which thus impacts the generalizability of the gyn-ments system. despite the extensive list of surgical examples given by major gynecologic surgical societies in the mesas table, we found inconsistencies with application between reviewers. it is clear there is still room for interpretation of disease severity, and thus acuity, making assignment of tiers prone to significant variation. additionally, at the end of this exercise, a high-volume institution could still have large numbers of patients within each cohort that still must be prioritized further, and this system provides no guidance as to how to perform this. finally, the mesas system appears to contain some inconsistencies within their surgical examples. for instance, endometriosis with poorly controlled pain and desire for fertility is categorized as a level 2 while myomectomy for an asymptomatic patient that is experiencing infertility is categorized as a level 3. a hysteroscopic polypectomy in the infertile patient is categorized more urgently (level 3) than a hysteroscopic evaluation or polypectomy in patients over 50 with inability to sample in the office (level 2) that have higher risks of malignant potential. while these surgical assignments have been agreed upon by major societal stakeholders, these discrepancies deserve attention. to a certain extent, both scoring systems depend on accurate and elaborate chart documentation. ideally, surgeons would grade their own patients to improve accuracy and overcome this obstacle. difficulty was encountered when reviewers graded each other's patients in categories such as efficacy of alternative therapies, immediacy of fertility desire, and severity of pain. this clearly impacts the interrater reliability and can lead to the false assumption that poor inter-rater reliability means a scoring system is invalid. finally, further evaluation in a setting with clinicians who did not develop the scoring system is warranted. to our knowledge, this is the first study to assess reliability and validity of previously published surgical scoring systems. additionally, we are the first to report application of these scoring systems in gynecologic patients and have made recommendations for implementation in this arena. more robust prospective data are needed to either confirm or refute our retrospective findings. further study should also evaluate the efficacy of utilizing both the gyn-ments and mesas system together to triage non-emergent procedures. we also feel strongly that a system to provide more emphasis on the disease variables of the gyn-ments scoring system would yield an even more valid triaging system. cqm, jsk, czw, and rla were responsible for study design and creation of the modified scoring system. cqm, jsk, czw, wab, and cmcb were responsible for chart review and data abstraction. rla was responsible for data analysis and interpretation. cqm, jsk, czw, wab, and cmcb were responsible for data interpretation. cqm, jsk, czw, wab, cmcb, and rla were responsible for manuscript drafting and editing. jsk was responsible for publication management. data sharing: all data collected for the study including the study protocol, a data dictionary defining each field, and de-identified patient data will be made available to qualified researchers using a data sharing platform upon reasonable request with publication. recommendations for management of elective surgical procedures american college of surgeons surgeon general. hospitals & healthcare systems, please consider stopping elective procedures until we can #flattenthecurve centers for medicare & medicaid services. cms releases recommendations on adult elective surgeries, non-essential medical, surgical, and dental procedures during covid-19 response american college of surgeons. covid-19: guidance for triage of non-emergent surgical procedures american college of surgeons joint statement on re-introduction of hospital and office-based procedures in the covid-19 climate il: society of gynecologic surgeons medically necessary, time-sensitive procedures: scoring system to ethically and efficiently manage resource scarcity and provider risk during the covid-19 joint statement on minimally invasive gynecologic surgery during the covid-19 pandemic society of american gastrointestinal and endoscopic surgeons. sages and eaes recommendations regarding surgical response to covid-19 crisis clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients undergoing surgeries during the incubation period of covid-19 infection. eclinicalmedicine author's reply: hazardous postoperative outcomes of unexpected covid-19 infected patients: a call for global consideration of sampling all asymptomatic patients before surgical treatment epidemiological, comorbidity factors with severity and prognosis of covid-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis key: cord-029290-vf5qebso authors: devonport, alex; khaled, mahmoud; arcak, murat; zamani, majid title: pirk: scalable interval reachability analysis for high-dimensional nonlinear systems date: 2020-06-13 journal: computer aided verification doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-53288-8_27 sha: doc_id: 29290 cord_uid: vf5qebso reachability analysis is a critical tool for the formal verification of dynamical systems and the synthesis of controllers for them. due to their computational complexity, many reachability analysis methods are restricted to systems with relatively small dimensions. one significant reason for such limitation is that those approaches, and their implementations, are not designed to leverage parallelism. they use algorithms that are designed to run serially within one compute unit and they can not utilize widely-available high-performance computing (hpc) platforms such as many-core cpus, gpus and cloud-computing services. this paper presents pirk, a tool to efficiently compute reachable sets for general nonlinear systems of extremely high dimensions. pirk can utilize hpc platforms for computing reachable sets for general high-dimensional non-linear systems. pirk has been tested on several systems, with state dimensions up to 4 billion. the scalability of pirk’s parallel implementations is found to be highly favorable. applications of safety-critical cyber-physical systems (cps) are growing due to emerging iot technologies and the increasing availability of efficient computing devices. these include smart buildings, traffic networks, autonomous vehicles, truck platooning, and drone swarms, which require reliable bug-free software that perform in real-time and fulfill design requirements. traditional simulation/testing-based strategies may only find a small percentage of the software defects and the repairs become much costly as the system complexity grows. hence, in-development verification strategies are favorable since they reveal the faults in earlier stages, and guarantee that the designs satisfy the specifications as they evolve through the development cycle. formal methods offer an attractive alternative to testing-and simulation-based approaches, as they can verify whether the specifications for a cps are satisfied for all possible behaviors from a set of the initial states of the system. reachable sets characterize the states a system can reach in a given time range, starting from a certain initial set and subjected to certain inputs. they play an important role in several formal methods-based approaches to the verification and controller synthesis. an example of this is abstraction-based synthesis [1] [2] [3] [4] , in which reachable sets are used to construct a finite-state "abstraction" which is then used for formal synthesis. computing an exact reachable set is generally not possible. most practical methods resort to computing over-approximations or under-approximations of the reachable set, depending on the desired guarantee. computing these approximations to a high degree of accuracy is still a computationally intensive task, particularly for high-dimensional systems. many software tools have been created to address the various challenges of approximating reachable sets. each of these tools uses different methods and leverages different system assumptions to achieve different goals related to computing reachable sets. for example, cora [5] and spaceex [6] tools are designed to compute reachable sets of high accuracy for very general classes of nonlinear systems, including hybrid ones. some reachability analysis methods rely on specific features of dynamical systems, such as linearity of the dynamics or sparsity in the interconnection structure [7] [8] [9] . this allows computing the reachable sets in shorter time or for relatively high-dimensional systems. however, it limits the approach to smaller classes of applications, less practical specifications, or requires the use of less accurate (e.g., linearized) models. other methods attack the computational complexity problem by computing reachable set approximations from a limited class of set representations. an example of limiting the set of allowed overapproximations are interval reachability methods, in which reachable sets are approximated by cartesian products of intervals. interval reachability methods allow for computing the reachable sets of very general non-linear and high-dimensional systems in a short amount of time. they also pose mild constraints on the systems under consideration, usually only requiring some kind of boundedness constraint instead of a specific form for the system dynamics. many reachability tools that are designed to scale well with state dimension focus on interval reachability methods: these include flow * [10] , capd [11] , c2e2 [12] , vnode-lp [13] , dynibex [14] , and tira [15] . another avenue by which reachable set computation time can be reduced, which we believe has not been sufficiently explored, is the use of parallel computing. although most reachability methods are presented as serial algorithms, many of them have some inherent parallelism that can be exploited. one example of a tool that exploits parallelism is xspeed [16] , which implements a parallelized version of a support function-based reachability method. however, this parallel method is limited to linear systems, and in some cases only linear systems with invertible dynamics. further, the parallelization is not suitable for massively parallel hardware: only some of the work (sampling of the support functions) is offloaded to the parallel device, so only a relatively small number of parallel processing elements may be employed. in this paper, we investigate the parallelism for three interval reachability analysis methods and introduce pirk, the parallel interval reachability kernel. pirk uses simulation-based reachability methods [17] [18] [19] , which compute rigorous approximations to reachable sets by integrating one or more systems of odes. pirk is developed in c++ and opencl as an open-source 1 kernel for pfaces [20] , a recently introduced acceleration ecosystem. this allows pirk to be run on a wide range of computing platforms, including cpus clusters, gpus, and hardware accelerators from any vendor, as well as cloud-based services like aws. the user looking to use a reachability analysis tool for formal verification may choose from an abundance of options, as our brief review has shown. what pirk offers in this choice is a tool that allows for massively parallel reachability analysis of high-dimensional systems with an application programming interface (api) to easily interface with other tools. to the best of our knowledge, pirk is the first and the only tool that can compute reachable sets of general non-linear systems with dimensions beyond the billion. as we show later in sect. 5, pirk computes the reachable set for a traffic network example with 4 billion dimension in only 44.7 min using a 96-core cpu in amazon aws cloud. consider a nonlinear system with dynamicsẋ = f (t, x, p) with state x ∈ r n , a set of initial states x 0 , a time interval [t 0 , t 1 ], and a set of time-varying inputs p defined over [t 0 , t 1 ]. let φ(t; t 0 , x 0 , p) denote the state of the system, at time t, of the trajectory beginning at time t 0 at initial state x 0 under input p. we assume the systems are continuous-time. the finite-time forward reachable set is defined as for the problem of interval reachability analysis, there are a few more constraints on the problem structure. an interval set is a set of the form [a, a] = {a : a ≤ a ≤ a}, where ≤ denotes the usual partial order on real vectors, that is the partial order with respect to the positive orthant cone. the vectors a and a are the lower and upper bounds respectively of the interval set. an interval set can alternatively be described by its center a * = 1 2 (a + a) and half-width [a] = 1 2 (a−a). in interval reachability analysis, the initial set must be an interval, and inputs values restricted to an interval set, i.e. p(t) ∈ [p, p], and the reachable set approximation must also be an interval (fig. 1) . furthermore, certain methods for computing interval reachable sets require further restrictions on the system dynamics, such as the state and input jacobian matrices being bounded or sign-stable. pirk computes interval reachable sets using three different methods, allowing for different levels of tightness and speed, and which allow for different amounts of additional problem data to be used. the contraction/growth bound method [4, 21, 22] computes the reachable set using component-wise contraction properties of the system. this method may be applied to input-affine systems of the formẋ = f (t, x) + p. the growth and contraction properties of each component of the system are first characterized by a contraction matrix c. the contraction matrix is a component-wise generalization of the matrix measure of the jacobian j x = ∂f /∂x [19, 23] , satisfying the method constructs a reachable set over-approximation by separately establishing its center and half-width. the center is found by simulating the trajectory of the center of the initial set, that is as φ(t 1 ; t 0 , x * , p * ). the half width is found by integrating the growth dynamicṡ [24] computes the reachable set by separating the increasing and decreasing portions of the system dynamics in an auxiliary system called the embedding system whose state dimension is twice that of the original system [25] . the embedding system is constructed using a decomposition function d(t, x, p,x,p), which encodes the increasing and decreasing parts of the system dynamics and satisfies d(t, x, p, x, p) = f (t, x, p). the evaluation of a single trajectory of the embedding system can be used to find a reachable set over-approximation for the original system. the monte carlo method computes a probabilistic approximation to the reachable set by evaluating the trajectories of a finite number m of pairs sample points (x (i) 0 , p (i) ) in the initial set and input set, and selecting the smallest interval that contains the final points of the trajectories. unlike the other two methods, the monte carlo method is restricted to constant-valued inputs, i.e. inputs of the form the interval reachable set is then approximated by the elementwise minimum and maximum of the x (i) 1 . this approximation satisfies a probabilistic guarantee of correctness, provided that enough sample states are chosen [26] . let [r, r] be the approximated reachable set, , δ ∈ (0, 1), and m ≥ ( 2n ) log 2n δ . then, with probability 1−δ, the approximation [r, r] satisfies p (r t0,t1 \[r, r]) ≤ , where p (a) denotes the probability that a sampled initial state will yield a final state in the set a, and \ denotes set difference. the probability that a sampled initial state will be sent to a state outside the estimate (the "accuracy" of the estimate) is quantified by . improved accuracy (lower ) increases the sample size as o(1/ ). the probability that running the algorithm will fail to give an estimate satisfying the inequality (the "confidence") is quantified by δ. improved confidence (lower δ) increases the sample size by o(log(1/δ)). the bulk of the computational work in each method is spent in ode integration. hence, the most effective approach by which to parallelize the three methods is to design a parallel ode integration method. there are several available methods for parallelizing the task of ode integration. several popular methods for parallel ode integration are parallel extensions of runge-kutta integration methods, which are the most popular serial methods for ode integration. pirk takes advantage of the task-level parallelism in the runge-kutta equations by evaluating each state dimension in parallel. this parallelization scheme is called parallelization across space [27] . pirk specifically uses a space-parallel version of the fourth-order runge-kutta method, or space-parallel rk4 for brevity. in space-parallel rk4, each parallel thread is assigned a different state variable to evaluate the intermediate update equations. after each intermediate step, the threads must synchronize to construct the updated state in global memory. space-parallel rk4 can use as many parallel computation elements as there are state variables: since pirk's goal is to compute reachable sets for extremely high-dimensional systems, this is sufficient in most cases. the space-parallel scheme is not hardware-specific, and may be used with any parallel computing platform. pirk is similarly hardware-agnostic: the pfaces ecosystem, for which pirk is a kernel, provides a common interface to run on a variety of heterogeneous parallel computing platforms. the only difference between platforms that affects pirk is the number of available parallel processing elements (pes). the parallelized implementations of the three reachability methods described in sect. 2.1 use space-parallel rk4 to perform almost all computations other than setting up initial conditions. we can therefore find the time and memory complexity of each method by analyzing the complexity of space-parallel rk4 and counting the number of times each method uses it. for a system with n dimensions, space-parallel rk4 scales linearly as the number of pes (denoted by p ) increases. in a computer with a single pe (i.e., p = 1), the algorithm reduces to the original serial algorithm. then, suppose that a parallel computer has p ≤ n pes of the same type. we assume a computational model under which instruction overhead and latency from thread synchronization are negligible, memory space has equal access time from all processing elements, and the number of parallel jobs can be evenly distributed among the p processing elements. 2 under this parallel random-access machine model [28] , the time complexity of space-parallel rk4 is reduced by a factor of p : each pe is responsible for computing n/p components of the state vector. therefore, for fixed initial and final times t 0 and t 1 , the time complexity of the algorithm is o( n p ). the parallel version of the contraction/growth bound method uses spaceparallel rk4 twice. first, it is used to compute the solution of the system's ode f for the center of the initial set x 0 . then, it is used to compute the growth/contraction of the initial set x 0 by solving the ode g of the growth dynamics. since this method uses a fixed number of calls of space-parallel rk4, its time complexity is also o( n p ) for a given t 0 and t 1 . the parallelized implementation of the mixed-monotonicity method uses space-parallel rk4 only once, in order to integrate the 2n-dimensional embedding system. this means that the mixed-monotonicity method also has a time complexity of o( n p ) for fixed t 0 and t 1 . however, the mixed-monotonicity method requires twice as much memory as the growth bound method, since it runs spaceparallel rk4 on a system of dimension 2n. the parallelized implementation of the monte carlo method uses spaceparallel rk4 m times, once for each of the m sampled initial states. the implementation uses two levels of parallelization. the first level is a set of parallel threads over the samples used for simulations. then, within each thread, another parallel set of threads are launched by space-parallel rk4. this is realized as one parallel job of m × n threads. consequently, the monte carlo method has a complexity of o( mn p ). since only the elementwise minima and maxima of the sampled states need to be stored, this method only requires as much memory as the growth bound method. a pseudocode of each parallel algorithm and a detailed discussion of their time and space complexities are provided in an extended version of this paper [29] . the extended version also contains additional details for the case studies that will be presented in the next section. in each of the case studies to follow, we report the time it takes pirk to compute reachable sets for systems of varying dimension using all three of its methods on a variety of parallel computing platforms. we perform some of the same tests using the serial tool tira, to measure the speedup gained by pirk's ability to use massively parallel hardware. we set a time limit of 1 h for all of the targeted case studies, and report the maximum dimensions that could be reached under this limit. the monte carlo method is given probabilistic parameters = δ = 0.05 in each case study where it is used. we use four aws machines for the computations with pirk: m4.10xlarge which has a cpu with 40 cores, c5.24xlarge which has a cpu with 96 cores, g3.4xlarge which has a gpu with 2048 cores, and p3.2xlarge which has a gpu with 5120 cores. for the computations with tira, we used a machine with a 3.6 ghz intel i7 cpu. we consider the road traffic analysis problem reported in [30] , a proposed benchmark for formal controller synthesis. we are interested in the density of cars along a single one-way lane. the lane is divided into n segments, and the density of cars in each segment is a state variable. the continuous-time dynamics are derived from a spatially discretized version of the cell transmission model [31] . this is a nonlinear system with sparse coupling between state variables. the results of the speed test are shown in the first row of figure 2 . the machines m4.10xlarge and c5.24xlarge reach up to 2 billion and 4 billion dimensions, respectively, using the growth/contraction method, in 47.3 min and 44.7 min, respectively. due to memory limitations of the gpus, the machines g3.4xlarge and p3.2xlarge both reach up to 400 million in 106 s and 11 s, respectively. the relative improvement of pirk's computation time over tira's is significantly larger for the growth bound method than for the other two. this difference stems from how each tool computes the half-width of the reachable set from the radius dynamics. tira solves the radius dynamics by computing the full matrix exponential using matlab's expm, whereas pirk directly integrates the dynamics using parallel runge-kutta. this caveat applies to sect. 5.2 as well. the second test system is a swarm of k identical quadrotors with nonlinear dynamics. the system dynamics of each quadrotor model are derived in a similar way to the model used in the arch-comp 18 competition [32] , with the added simplification of a small angle approximation in the angular dynamics and the neglect of coriolis force terms. a derivation of both models is available in [33] . similar to the n-link traffic model, this system is convenient for scaling: system consisting of one quadrotor can be expressed with 12 states, so the state dimension of the swarm system is n = 12k. while this reachability problem could be decomposed into k separate reachability problems which can be solved separately, we solve the entire 12k-dimensional problem as a whole to demonstrate pirk's ability to make use of sparse interconnection. the results of the speed test are shown in fig. 2 (second row) . the machines m4.10xlarge and c5.24xlarge reach up to 1.8 billion dimensions and 3.6 billion dimensions, respectively, (using the growth/contraction method) in 48 min and 32 min, respectively. the machines g3.4xlarge and p3.2xlarge both reach up to 120 million dimensions in 10.6 min and 46 s, respectively. the third test system is a modification of the quadrotor swarm system which adds interactions between the quadrotors. in addition to the quadrotor dynamics described in sect. 5.2, this model augments each quadrotor with an artificial potential field to guide it to the origin while avoiding collisions. this controller applies nonlinear force terms to the quadrotor dynamics that seek to minimize an artificial potential u that depends on the position of all of the quadrotors. due to the interaction of the state variables in the force terms arising from the potential field, this system has a dense jacobian. in particular, at least 25% of the jacobian elements will be nonzero for any number of quadrotors. table 1 shows the times of running pirk using this system on the four machines m4.10xlarge, c5.24xlarge, g3.4xlarge and p3.2xlarge in amazon aws. due to the high density of this example, we focus on the memory-light growth bound and the monte-carlo methods. pirk computed the reach sets of systems up to 120,000 state variables (i.e., 10,000 quadrotors). up to 1,200 states, all machines solve the problems in less than one second. some of the machines lack the required memory to solve the problems requiring large memory (e.g., 27.7 gb of memory is required to compute the reach set of the system with 120,000 state variables using the growth bound method). the fourth test system is a model for the diffusion of heat in a 3-dimensional cube. the model is based on a benchmark used in [7] to test a method for numerical verification of affine systems. a model of the formẋ = f (t, x, p) which approximates the heat transfer through the cube according to the heat equation can be obtained by discretizing the cube into an × × grid, yielding a system with 3 states. the temperature at each grid point is taken as a state variable. each spatial derivative is replaced with a finite-difference approximation. since the heat equation is a linear pde, the discretized system is linear. we take a fixed state dimension of n = 10 9 by fixing = 1000. integration takes place over [t 0 , t 1 ] = [0, 20] with time step size h = 0.02. using the growth bound method, pirk solves the problem on m4.10xlarge in 472 min, and in 350.2 min on c5.24xlarge. this is faster than the time reported in [7] (30 h) using the same machine. the remaining case studies focus on models of practical importance with low state dimension. although pirk is designed to perform well on high-dimensional systems, it is also effective at quickly computing reachable sets for low dimensional systems, for applications that require many reachable sets. the first such case study is single-track vehicle model with seven states, presented in [34] . we fix an input that performs a maneuver to overtake an obstacle in the middle lane of a 3-lane highway. to verify that the maneuver was safely completed, we compute reachable sets over a range of points and ensuring that the reachable set does not intersect any obstacles. we consider a step-size of 0.005 s in a time window between 0 and 6.5 s. we compute one reachable set at each time step, resulting in a "reachable tube" comprising 1300 reachable sets. pirk computed the reachable tube in 0.25 s using the growth bound method on an i7 cpu (fig. 3) . in order to compare pirk's performance to existing tools, we tested pirk's growth bound implementation on three systems from the arch-comp'18 category report for systems with nonlinear dynamics [32] . this report contains benchmark data from several popular reachability analysis tools (c2e2, cora, flow * , isabelle, spaceex, and symreach) on nonlinear reachability problems with state dimensions between 2 and 12. table 2 compares the computation times for pirk on the three systems to those reported by other tools in [32] . all times are in seconds. pirk ran on an i9 cpu, while the others ran on i7 and i5: see [32] for more hardware details. pirk solves each of the benchmark problems faster than the other tools. both of the i7 and i9 processors used have 6 to 8 cores: the advantage of pirk is its ability to utilize all available cores. using a simple parallelization of interval reachability analysis techniques, pirk is able to compute reachable sets for nonlinear systems faster and at higher dimensions than many existing tools. this performance increase comes from pirk's ability to use massively parallel hardware such as gpus and cpu clusters, as well as the use of parallelizable simulation-based methods. future work will focus on improving the memory-usage of the mixed monotonicity and monte-carlo based methods, including an investigation of adaptive sampling strategies, and on using pirk as a helper tool to synthesize controllers for high-dimensional systems. open access this chapter is licensed under the terms of the creative commons attribution 4.0 international license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the creative commons license and indicate if changes were made. the images or other third party material in this chapter are included in the chapter's creative commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. if material is not included in the chapter's creative commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. symbolic models for nonlinear control systems with-out stability assumptions formal methods for discrete-time dynamical systems verification and control of hybrid systems: a symbolic approach feedback refinement relations for the synthesis of symbolic controllers an introduction to cora spaceex: scalable verification of hybrid systems numerical verification of affine systems with up to a billion dimensions ellipsoidal toolbox (et) sapo: reachability computation and parameter synthesis of polynomial dynamical systems flow * : an analyzer for non-linear hybrid systems computer assisted proofs in dynamics group, a c++ package for rigorous numerics c2e2: a verification tool for stateflow models implementing a rigorous ode solver through literate programming validated explicit and implicit runge-kutta methods tira: toolbox for interval reachability analysis xspeed: accelerating reachability analysis on multi-core processors computing bounded reach sets from sampled simulation traces trajectory based verification using local finite-time invariance reachability analysis of nonlinear systems using matrix measures pfaces: an acceleration ecosystem for symbolic control a lohner-type algorithm for control systems and ordinary differential inclusions locally optimal reach set over-approximation for non-linear systems simulation-based reachability analysis for nonlinear systems using componentwise contraction properties formal methods for control of traffic flow: automated control synthesis from finite-state transition models monotone flows and order intervals data-driven reachable set computation using adaptive gaussian process classification and monte carlo methods parallel numerical methods for ordinary differential equations: a survey an introduction to parallel algorithms pirk: scalable interval reachability analysis for high-dimensional nonlinear systems (2020) a benchmark problem in transportation networks a compartmental model for traffic networks and its dynamical behavior arch-comp18 category report: continuous and hybrid systems with nonlinear dynamics quadrotor dynamics and control rev 0.1 commonroad: vehicle models key: cord-257623-j8dqvbqw authors: norris, ken; terry, andrew; hansford, james p.; turvey, samuel t. title: biodiversity conservation and the earth system: mind the gap date: 2020-07-07 journal: trends ecol evol doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.06.010 sha: doc_id: 257623 cord_uid: j8dqvbqw one of the most striking human impacts on global biodiversity is the ongoing depletion of large vertebrates from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. recent work suggests this loss of megafauna can affect processes at biome or earth system scales with potentially serious impacts on ecosystem structure and function, ecosystem services, and biogeochemical cycles. we argue that our contemporary approach to biodiversity conservation focuses on spatial scales that are too small to adequately address these impacts. we advocate a new global approach to address this conservation gap, which must enable megafaunal populations to recover to functionally relevant densities. we conclude that re-establishing biome and earth system functions needs to become an urgent global priority for conservation science and policy. the loss of large vertebrates (megafauna) from the world's ecosystems has been occurring throughout human history. emerging evidence suggests these losses can have dramatic impacts on ecological functions, including the near collapse of biogeochemical cycles at biome and earth system scales. although the biodiversity conservation community increasingly recognises the need to restore ecological functions at landscape scales, it currently operates at scales that are too small to adequately address the functional consequences of megafaunal losses at biome and earth system scales. re-establishing biome and earth system functions needs to become a global priority for the biodiversity conservation community, and we will need a new global initiative to deliver this. known to provide essential ecosystem functions through regulation of terrestrial vegetation structure and dynamics at both landscape and biome scales. although individuals and small isolated populations can perpetuate localised interactions, functionality is driven by large populations and diverse assemblages, highlighting the vulnerability of megafauna-driven ecosystem regulation to population declines well before actual extinctions [18, 19] . the role of large herbivores (including terrestrial and arboreal mammals, large birds, and giant tortoises) in promoting plant regeneration and regulating vegetation composition through dispersal of plant propagules, especially over long distances, is crucial in most terrestrial systems [20] . however, there has been substantial human-caused trophic downgrading of frugivore communities worldwide [21] , and although coevolved plant species may persist beyond megafaunal extinction by exploiting alternative dispersal mechanisms, cascading effects of large glossary biogeochemical cycles: pathways through which chemical substances, for example, nitrogen or phosphorus, move through the biotic and abiotic components of ecological systems. biome: a distinct community of microorganisms, plants, and animals occupying an extensive geographical area, such as a tropical forest or desert. convention on biological diversity: a multilateral treaty for the conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity delivered through national strategies (www.cbd.int). convention on migratory species: an international agreement that aims to conserve migratory species within their migratory ranges (www.cms.int). earth system: physical, chemical, and biological processes interacting at a planetary scale and involving the atmosphere, land, oceans, and polar regions. ecological function: a process or set of processes that can change an ecological system over time, for example, seed dispersal, herbivory, or predation. ecosystem services: benefits that humans receive from ecosystems, for example, food, clean water, disease control, and cultural experiences. ecosystem structure and function: structure refers to the way an ecosystem is organised and includes its species composition, trophic structure or functional composition, and distribution of mass and energy between its components; function refers to the flow of mass and energy through an ecosystem. half-earth project: a call to protect half the global area of land and sea to reverse species extinctions and ensure long-term planetary health (www.half-earthproject.org). international convention for the regulation of whaling: an international agreement for the conservation of whale stocks and their sustainable exploitation. landscape: an area of land, its landforms, and their integration with human-made and natural elements, and typically covering a geographical area much smaller than a biome. megafauna: large-bodied animals. specific mass thresholds used vary between studies, but the term often refers to animals n44.5 kg. figure 1 . the functional roles played by large vertebrates (megafauna) across spatial scales. important ecological processes driven by megafauna include the long-distance dispersal of seeds; browsing, grazing and physical disturbance of plant communities by herbivores; and predation by large carnivores. large-scale movements by megafauna transport nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus across land and in the ocean when they urinate and defaecate, and when they die and decompose. these processes interact to drive biogeochemical cycles at biome (e.g., the amazon) and earth system scales. the loss of megafauna has had a significant impact on these processes, resulting in substantial reductions in nutrient flows at biome and earth system scales. vertebrate loss include plant community reorganisation, reduction of megafauna-dependent plant abundance, distribution, and population structure, and local extinctions [10, 12, 22, 23] . recent evidence also shows megafauna influence the dispersal of microbes [24] . more direct regulation of habitat structure, ecosystem state, and associated species diversity and richness by herbivores is widely recognised, including suppression of plant growth and regeneration through grazing and browsing, and further physical modification of vegetation and geomorphology by trampling and other damage. megaherbivore presence is often associated with increased landscape openness and heterogeneity, for example from closed-canopy forest to forest-grassland mosaic parkland landscapes [25, 26] , but can have numerous system-specific regulatory effects, such as a state shift between open-water wetlands and sphagnum bogs in the galápagos islands driven by presence or absence of the giant tortoise (chelonoidis nigra) [27] . megaherbivores modify water tables and soil methane emissions and affect evapotranspiration and land surface albedo [28] . megaherbivore extinction can also be associated with changed fire regimes, with the potential for increased fire frequency due to accumulation of uncropped plant material, and associated state shifts to more fire-resistant dominant vegetation communities [29, 30] . large carnivores also play an important role in regulating habitat structure through behaviourally mediated indirect interactions, by causing changes in prey distribution and associated mesoherbivore-vegetation interactions across landscapes (so-called landscapes of fear) [31] [32] [33] , although the dynamics of such carnivore-induced trophic cascades are further modified by local presence of megaherbivores [34] . megafaunal interactions such as propagule dispersal and nutrient transfer through faeces and urine play a further important role in regulating biogeochemical cycling. this is well recognised at landscape and biome scales. loss of seed and fruit dispersers in tropical forests has a negative impact on ecosystem carbon storage through reduction of tree biomass. for example, extinction of forest elephants (loxodonta cyclotis) would result in a 7% decrease in above-ground biomass in central african rainforests, reducing efficiency of carbon sequestration [11] . past megafaunal extinctions are predicted to have already reduced carbon storage capacity in globally important ecoregions such as the amazon [12] . megafaunal regulation of soil biogeochemical processes is particularly important in nutrient-poor cold or dry environments, and megafaunal disappearance in north eurasia is posited to have locked nutrients into slowly decomposing plant matter within permafrost soils and decreased system productivity [35] . megafauna play comparable functional roles in marine systems [36] . there is increasing recognition of the vital additional role played by megafauna in horizontal movement of carbon and nutrients both across landscapes and biomes and across system boundaries, thus scaling up the megafaunal keystone paradigm to wider continental and global contexts. megafauna are now known to make a disproportionate contribution to lateral nutrient transfer, with large herbivores and carnivores both acting as important carbon and nutrient vectors by excreting organic matter derived from one system into another [37, 38] . megafaunamediated translocation, either via feeding migrations or local-scale movements across system boundaries (between terrestrial, freshwater, and/or marine systems), can profoundly shape the ecology, productivity, and structure of recipient systems by increasing diffusion rates along concentration gradients and against hydrological flow directions [39] . this global megafaunadriven nutrient pump counters sedimentation, with large cetaceans recovering nutrients from the deep sea and acting as vertical and horizontal vectors [40] , and a further chain of system-boundary transfers by other large vertebrates progressively moving nutrients upstream and into continental interiors [41] . megafauna therefore regulate key earth-system processes megaherbivore: large-bodied herbivorous animals n1000 kg in mass, for example, hippopotami and elephants. mesoherbivore: medium-sized herbivorous animals in the mass range 50-500 kg, for example, red deer. montreal protocol: an international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out substances responsible for ozone depletion. seascape: the equivalent of a landscape in the ocean. transboundary initiative: conservation initiatives that cross national borders, that is, that include two or more countries. and global interconnectivity, and megafaunal extinctions have caused major perturbations to biogeochemical cycles at biome and earth system scales [15, 41] . over the past 30 years, biodiversity conservation has been focused primarily on area-based protection and restoration of threatened species and populations. these activities have been supported by global indicators such as the international union for conservation of nature red list and the living planet index, which have enabled conservationists to prioritise the most threatened species, identify threatening processes, and monitor responses to conservation interventions [4, 5, 42, 43] . this approach has tended to focus on threatened populations with geographically restricted ranges (e.g., relict populations that were formally part of much larger, connected ranges; island endemics). however, it has become increasingly clear that a focus on population-level or single-species conservation (and typically for populations already in serious decline) will not be sufficient to protect or restore key ecological functions at larger spatial scales (e.g., landscapes and biomes) [8, 44] , and that species' ecological roles need to be a more prominent part of the conservation agenda [45, 46] . furthermore, recognition of the links between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being means that conservation is increasingly part of a transformative global agenda that is considering possible futures for nature and people [47] . against this wider background, we now understand that megafauna can play a critical role in the restoration of landscapes with potentially wide-ranging benefits to biodiversity because of the key functions they perform [48] [49] [50] . this realisation is fundamental to the concept of rewilding, which aims to restore self-sustaining ecosystems that require minimal management interventions in the longer term. within this framework, reintroductions of regionally extinct species and novel introductions of surrogate or analogue species are often used to replace lost ecological functions associated with historical removal of megafauna [51] . for example, large-bodied carnivores have been reintroduced at various sites in europe and north america [e.g., grey wolves (canis lupus) in yellowstone national park] to restore top-down regulation of ecosystems through trophic cascades. a wide range of large-bodied herbivores have been used as grazers, browsers, and agents of disturbance across different european rewilding projects to replace the roles of regionally extirpated species such as european horse (equus ferus ferus), bison (bison bonasus), and aurochs (bos primigenius), and extant species of giant tortoise (e.g., aldabrechelys gigantea) have been used to restore herbivory and seed dispersal functions to vegetation communities on tropical islands such as the galápagos and mauritius that have lost their endemic tortoise species. even nonintentional replacement can restore at least some functionality of extinct taxa [52] , and the introduction of non-native megafauna can have functional consequences [e.g., pablo escobar's hippos (hippopotamus amphibius) in colombia] [53] . these species-level and landscape-level approaches represent contrasting conservation scales ( figure 2 ). when viewed in this way, it becomes apparent that conservation has progressively expanded its scale of operation over the past 30 years from small (species and populations) to larger (e.g., landscapes) spatial scales. however, this perspective also reveals a worrying gap between the scales over which conservation currently operates, and the scales over which ecological functions are changing in response to the ongoing loss of megafauna. the loss of ecological functions at biome and earth system scales is simply not adequately represented in contemporary approaches to conservation. for example, yellowstone, into which grey wolves were reintroduced, covers an area of roughly 9000 km 2 ; in contrast, amazonia covers an area of 7 000 000 km 2 , and the area covered by the biogeochemical cycles supporting it represents a significantly larger area again. consequently, our contemporary approach to biodiversity trends in ecology & evolution conservation focuses on spatial scales that are too small to adequately address changes in ecological function at biome or earth system scales. given the magnitude of changes in biogeochemical cycles at these scales since the late quaternary, the conservation community therefore urgently needs to address the gap between the scales over which conservation currently operates, and the scales over which ecological functions are changing. the depletion of megafauna has occurred over millennia, and the loss of associated ecological functions occurs across a range of spatial scales, including biome and earth system scales ( figure 1) . furthermore, although the scales over which contemporary conservation operates have arguably expanded over recent decades, these responses remain too localised to address the scale of the problem (figure 2 ). we need urgent action at biome and earth system scales: in other words, a genuinely integrated, global response. environmental science and policy have had a significant impact at global scales. for example, the montreal protocol, an international treaty that came into force in 1987, was established to protect the ozone layer by phasing out the production and use of numerous substances responsible for ozone depletion. over 190 countries participate in the treaty, and it has resulted in the phaseout of 99% of nearly 100 ozone-depleting chemicals. without this treaty, the ozone layer is predicted to have collapsed by the mid-21st century [54] , with hugely serious implications for human health. although important work to further mitigate the impact of ozone-depleting figure 2 . conservation scales. contemporary biodiversity conservation is focused on populations and species, and on landscapes and seascapes. associated actions typically cover areas of a few thousand square kilometres at most. at biome or earth system scales, limited attention is being given to re-establishing the key functional roles and relationships provided by megafauna. this conservation gap is particularly serious given recent evidence showing substantial reductions in nutrient flows at these spatial scales. chemicals is still necessary, recent research shows that the ozone layer is recovering [55] . some megafaunal conservation efforts have also operated at global scales. the international whaling commission (iwc) was set up under the international convention for the regulation of whaling in 1946. although some of its activities remain contentious, a moratorium on hunting was introduced in the 1980s, and whale sanctuaries were established in the indian ocean (1979) and southern ocean (1994), covering an area of over 50 million km 2 . a further sanctuary in the south atlantic is currently under discussion. several whale populations are showing signs of recent recovery [56] [57] [58] , and although many remain below their historical baselines, the iwc represents one of the few initiatives aimed at the conservation of megafauna at appropriately large spatial scales. despite examples of global initiatives that have delivered demonstrable environmental benefits, there is little overall evidence that biodiversity conservation is currently operating at the scales required to address functional consequences at biome and earth system scales. the majority of global conservation conventions, such as the cbd and convention on migratory species (cms), are implemented at national scales through a shared responsibility approach, which almost inevitably means that progress is piecemeal, and coordination and integration across systems and scales is poor. a number of transboundary initiatives have developed globally in recent years [59, 60] , which include the conservation of megafaunal species. these initiatives often reflect the long-held view that large-scale interventions are needed to restore ecologically functional communities [46] . furthermore, there have been recent calls by conservationists for a half-earth project to conserve half of the earth's biodiversity. it seems unlikely, however, that these projects will adequately address the depletion of megafauna and restore the biome or earth system functions they drive without including measures specifically designed to do so. indeed, where the conservation community has had some recent successes in conserving megafaunal populations, this can result in increased conflict between wildlife and local people unless adverse impacts can be appropriately managed [61, 62] . in addition, human infrastructure such as fences, roads, and other urbanisation of landscapes often significantly restricts animal movement [63, 64] , constraining the scales over which key ecological functions can operate and hence limiting restoration potential even if megafaunal populations are locally able to recover. these major constraints mean that addressing the loss of megafauna and its functional consequences requires a new global initiative. at its heart, we need large, transboundary functional units capable of delivering key ecological functions at earth system scales, and within which megafauna and their associated functional pathways can be maintained or restored. it is likely that surviving large intact terrestrial biomes, such as the amazonian, central african and russian forests, the sahel and the eurasian steppe, should represent key components of such an initiative, as would large protected marine areas such as the existing marine mammal sanctuaries designated by the iwc. coupling between terrestrial and marine regions is also important to incorporate into any global initiative that aims to effectively address megafaunadriven functionality, given that the biogeochemical cycles we wish to restore are themselves driven by both aquatic and terrestrial processes [15] . restoring a functional earth system in this way will not be achieved by simply protecting megafaunal species, but their populations must be enabled to recover to functionally relevant densities and have ecological impacts at functionally relevant scales. this represents a fundamental shift in the scale at which global conservation operates. such an endeavour will require unprecedented international agreement and cooperation, and an expansion and reframing of the current global conservation paradigm. identifying, protecting and restoring transboundary functional units will require an interdisciplinary approach to science and policy that has thus far been largely an academic exercise rather than a practical reality. implementation will be challenging, not least because it will require individual countries and their inhabitants to act as custodians of earth system functions from which we will all benefit. we recognise that previous global initiatives targeted at the atmosphere (montreal protocol) and oceans (iwc) are less complex in terms of national sovereignty than a global initiative that includes terrestrial and aquatic systems plus linkages between them. success will inevitably depend, therefore, on benefit sharing, equality, and social justice, which in turn will require us to reform the dominant political and economic ideologies that have shaped global society for over 50 years. while daunting, we already recognise the need to address these issues if we are to create a shared future for nature and people [47, 65] . we are simply arguing that restoring a functional earth system needs to be a key global priority for biodiversity conservation within this wider debate. the loss of megafauna due to human activities has been taking place for millennia, but it is only recently that we have begun to understand the implications of this loss for the structure and function of ecological systems at biome and earth system scales. although the biodiversity conservation community increasingly recognises the need to restore and conserve whole systems, its priorities and interventions remain focused on scales that are too small to address biome or earth system functions. we argue that a new global initiative is required to address the past and ongoing loss of megafauna and its functional implications. we acknowledge the significant challenges involved with designing and delivering such an initiative (see outstanding questions). the consequences of a failure to act are, however, beyond serious. the collapse of the ozone layer would have had health implications for millions of people globally. we face impacts of similar scale and magnitude due to the depletion of megafauna. there are also key dependencies with other global environmental initiatives. for example, the paris climate agreement requires the earth system to play its part in the global carbon cycle. the restoration of megafauna and their functional roles will need to be a key part of any naturebased climate solutions. as we write this paper, the world is managing a global coronavirus pandemic; a poignant reminder that nature shows little respect for human constructs like national borders. as a global biodiversity conservation community this is a lesson we need to learn, and quickly. the conservation and restoration of megafauna needs to be an urgent, global conservation priority, not only for their inherent biodiversity value, but to maintain a healthy planet that supports both nature and people. what are the functional roles of megafauna in historic and contemporary systems at biome and earth system scales? how has the depletion of megafauna impacted the function of ecological systems at biome and earth system scales, and what are the implications of these changes for the long-term structural and functional integrity of these systems? what are the human impacts of the depletion of megafauna and degradation in their functional roles at biome and earth system scales? where will the restoration of megafauna have the greatest impact on earth system processes? how can we restore megafauna populations and their key ecological functions at biome and earth systems scales, and what are the social and ecological barriers to restoration? how do we need to reform our social, economic and political systems to incentivise nations to cooperate to restore and protect functional ecological systems at biome and earth system scales, and to ensure costs and benefits are shared equitably? patterns, causes, and consequences of anthropocene defaunation defaunation in the anthropocene biodiversity losses and conservation responses in the anthropocene the impact of conservation on the status of the world's vertebrates reductions in global biodiversity loss predicted from conservation spending collapse of the world's largest herbivores status and ecological effects of the world's largest carnivores beyond species loss: the extinction of ecological interactions in a changing world projected losses of global mammal and bird ecological strategies dispersal limitation induces long-term biomass collapse in overhunted amazonian forests carbon stocks in central african forests enhanced by elephant disturbance megafauna extinction, tree species range reduction, and carbon storage in amazonian forests extinction in the anthropocene the accelerating influence of humans on mammalian macroecological patterns over the late quaternary global nutrient transport in a world of giants megafauna and ecosystem function from the pleistocene to the anthropocene the megabiota are disproportionately important for biosphere functioning flying foxes cease to function as seed dispersers long before they become rare loss of seed dispersal before the loss of seed dispersers pleistocene megafaunal extinctions and the functional loss of long-distance seed-dispersal services extinction-driven changes in frugivore communities on oceanic islands seed dispersal anachronisms: rethinking the fruits extinct megafauna ate implications of lemuriform extinctions for the malagasy flora megafauna decline have reduced pathogen dispersal which may have increased emergent infectious diseases the impact of the megafauna extinctions on savanna woody cover in south america combining paleo-data and modern exclosure experiments to assess the impact of megafauna extinctions on woody vegetation the ecological consequences of megafaunal loss: giant tortoises and wetland biodiversity biophysical feedbacks between the pleistocene megafauna extinction and climate: the first humaninduced global warming? ecological consequences of late quaternary extinctions of megafauna can trophic rewilding reduce the impact of fire in a more flammable world? phil wolves and the ecology of fear: can predation risk structure ecosystems? the landscape of fear: the missing link to understand top-down and bottom-up controls of prey abundance? energy landscapes and the landscape of fear megaherbivores modify trophic cascades triggered by fear of predation in an african savanna ecosystem mammoth steppe: a high-productivity phenomenon megafaunal impacts on structure and function of ocean ecosystems lateral diffusion of nutrients by mammalian herbivores in terrestrial ecosystems 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trophic rewilding research unintentional rewilding: lessons for trophic rewilding from other forms of species introductions ecosystem effects of the world's largest invasive animal what would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (cfcs) had not been regulated? challenges for the recovery of the ozone layer status of the world's baleen whales ecosystem modelling to quantify the impact of historical whaling on southern hemisphere baleen whales assessing the recovery of an antarctic predator from historical exploitation global opportunities and challenges for transboundary conservation yellowstone to yukon: transborder conservation across a vast international landscape factors influencing community participation in wildlife conservation human-elephant conflict: a review of current management strategies and future directions why did the elephant cross the road? the complex response of wild elephants to a major road in peninsular malaysia predicting landscape connectivity for the asian elephant in its largest remaining subpopulation protecting half of the planet could directly affect over one billion people usa. we would like to thank three anonymous reviewers and andrea stephens for very helpful comments on a previous version of our paper. key: cord-002474-2l31d7ew authors: lv, yang; hu, guangyao; wang, chunyang; yuan, wenjie; wei, shanshan; gao, jiaoqi; wang, boyuan; song, fangchao title: actual measurement, hygrothermal response experiment and growth prediction analysis of microbial contamination of central air conditioning system in dalian, china date: 2017-04-03 journal: sci rep doi: 10.1038/srep44190 sha: doc_id: 2474 cord_uid: 2l31d7ew the microbial contamination of central air conditioning system is one of the important factors that affect the indoor air quality. actual measurement and analysis were carried out on microbial contamination in central air conditioning system at a venue in dalian, china. illumina miseq method was used and three fungal samples of two units were analysed by high throughput sequencing. results showed that the predominant fungus in air conditioning unit a and b were candida spp. and cladosporium spp., and two fungus were further used in the hygrothermal response experiment. based on the data of cladosporium in hygrothermal response experiment, this paper used the logistic equation and the gompertz equation to fit the growth predictive model of cladosporium genera in different temperature and relative humidity conditions, and the square root model was fitted based on the two environmental factors. in addition, the models were carried on the analysis to verify the accuracy and feasibility of the established model equation. with the large-scale use of central air conditioning system and the improvement of people's living standard, more and more attention has been paid to the increasingly serious problem of indoor air pollution. studies showed that air handing unit is an important source of microorganisms for indoor biological pollution, and some microorganisms tend to stay in the dust of air conditioning units with the appropriate temperature and humidity environment. the microorganisms grow and then enter the indoor space through the air, resulting in the destruction of indoor air quality [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] . national institute for occupational safety and health (niosh) conducted a study of 529 buildings, and the research results showed that among the sources of indoor air pollution, central air-conditioning system pollution accounted for 53% 9 . summary of measurement by professor fanger showed that air-conditioning systems accounted for 42% in the indoor pollution sources 10 . based on the supervision and inspection of air conditioning and ventilation system in the public places of china's 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions by china academy of building research and the chinese center for disease control and prevention, it was found that more than 90% of the central air conditioning systems could not meet china's national sanitary standard 11 . thus, air conditioning system should eliminate negative impact caused by its own, on this basis, it may relate to positive effect of the ventilation. in recent years, h1n1, sars and other popular virus spread [12] [13] , and some researches showed that the hygienic, reasonable air conditioning systems were important to reduce damage [14] [15] . therefore, microbial pollution in central air conditioning system has become a critical topic in the field of indoor air pollution. studies showed that the filter, cooling coil, humidifier, and cooling tower in central air-conditioning system were easy to microbial breeding [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] . in this study, a venue in dalian was selected as the research object. as the working condition of the air conditioning system was down, the environment parameters were measured, and microorganisms existing on the wind pipe, filtering net, surface cooler, and condensate water, on the floor and in the air were collected. besides, according to the tested microbial density and the identified genome sequence of collected microorganisms, the hygrothermal response experiment of dominant fungal was detected, and the fitting analysis was carried out based on the prediction model, followed by a series of statistical analysis. the aim of the present study was to clarify characteristics of the microorganisms in air conditioning systems, and the study would be helpful for policymakers and hvac engineers to develop the appropriate strategies and to conduct the bacteria and fungi characteristic assessments in hvac system. preliminary survey. the object of study is a venue in dalian, which covers a total area of 36400 m 2 and building area is 17320 m 2 . the aboveground part includes a swimming pool, ball training venues, gymnasium, the lounge room and the clinic. the underground part consists of a table tennis hall, air conditioning equipment rooms and reservoir area. the whole building is centralized-controlled by the central air conditioning room, which includes two air handling units. two measured units were all air system, which only had a coarse efficiency filter, and the unit is also provided with a heater, cooler and fan etc. both units are the primary return air system and the filters are removable types. the running time of the air conditioning system is from may to october, and the daily operation period is 08:00-21:00. all components are cleaned every two years. when the measurement was carried on, the unit a and b were both cleaned a year ago. both units were closed during the sample collection. measurement method. the actual measurement is divided into two parts: the environment parameter measurement and air unit sampling. first, the temperature, humidity, and co 2 concentration were automatically recorded by the temperature, humidity and co 2 monitor (mch-383sd, japan). second, the disinfected planktonic microorganism sampler (hkm series dw-20, china) was installed where fresh air and return air mixed. once installing the sampler, we loaded medium in the sampler and set the parameter of air flow in sampler as 2000 l loaded medium. after the sample collection, the petri dishes must be sealed for preservation. finally, according to the hygienic specification of central air conditioning ventilation system in public buildings of china 22 , we sampled the dust by using sterile non-woven (100 mm*100 mm) on components of unit a and b, respectively, and each sampling point covered a 15 cm*15 cm area at the sampling area. the non-woven fabrics were put into sterile water and stirred to make sure that organic substance on the non-woven was fully dissolved in sterile water. then, the samples of sterile water containing organic substances were prepared in 10 times and 100 times diluted concentration, respectively. there are 10 sampling points in unit a and 5 points in b, and two measuring point positions of the units are shown in fig. 1 . the microorganisms collected in the air were directly cultured, and the samples in the dust were 10 times and 100 times diluted and 100 μ l of the sample was inoculated into the two kinds of solid culture media. beef extract peptone medium was used for cultivating bacteria and potato dextrose agar was used for cultivating fungus 22, 23 . each dilution was done in 3 parallel samples to reduce the error, and final results showed the average value. the blank samples and test samples were set up for each of the cultures. if there is no colony detected on the blank sample, the test results are valid. both field test and laboratory measurements were performed in accordance with the hygienic specification of central air conditioning ventilation system in public buildings requirements 22 . genome sequencing. only a small part of microorganisms are cultivable. therefore, the traditional cultivation method can not harvest all the species in ecological samples 24 . fungal genome sequencing is an emerging method to identify the microbial genome, which could directly indicate related species information from environment samples 25 . fungal amplicon sequencing analysis was used in this study, because the existing research showed that fungal spores have stronger vitality than other microorganisms in the air, and fungi dominated the microorganism in air conditioning systems. therefore, this method was mainly used to identify fungi in this study 3,17-28 . environment parameters in air handling units. temperature, humidity and co 2 concentration of unit a and b are shown in table 1 . unit a is located in the ground floor (b1), and the unit b is located on the ground floor. compared to the unit b, the humidity of unit a is higher, and the temperature is lower. microbial colony analysis. the distribution density of bacteria and fungi in the unit a is obtained through statistics, as shown in fig. 2 . the concentration of airborne fungus was 44 cfu/m 3 , and the concentration of airborne bacteria was 16 cfu/m 3 . the unit a showed the obvious microbial contamination status, though all components and airborne microorganism meet the hygienic specification of central air conditioning ventilation system in public buildings of china 22 . the microbial distribution in filter net is central < edge < bottom and bacteria accounted for a larger proportion; the microbial distribution in surface cooler is center > against the wall > edge, and fungi accounted for a large. the fungal contamination in the air is more serious than the bacteria. the distribution density of bacteria and fungi in the unit b were obtained through statistics, as shown in fig. 3 . the concentration of airborne fungus was 22 cfu/m 3 , and the concentration of airborne bacteria was 80 cfu/m 3 . parts of the measuring point in the unit b were polluted seriously. the bacterial colonies in the corner and the ground of the surface cooler were beyond the hygienic index (≤ 100 cfu/cm 2 ) in the hygienic specification of central air conditioning ventilation system in public buildings of china regulates 22 . limited by unit placement, there were less measuring points in unit b, and we chose the same measuring points in both units for comparison (centre of surface cooler, surface cooler against wall, corner of surface, and ground of surface cooler). the comparison between unit a and b indicates that the bacterial density in unit a was less than that in the same sampling point in unit b, but the fungal density in unit a was more than that in the same sampling point in unit b. if the cleaning and disinfection is not enough before the air conditioning system running, it may make the fungus to enter the indoor environment, which results in make the pollution of indoor air. compared with cooling coil, the fungus contamination is worse in the floor dust and the air suspension. during the actual measurement, it is found that the unit internal is unprecedentedly narrow and low intensity of illumination in a closed state. according to the description by technicians, it is easy to trample damage to the underground pipes, which leads to the disinfection and cleaning work rarely in the unit. fungal genome sequencing analysis. in this study, we analysed the samples from the sampling points a1, b1, and b2 by amplicon sequencing information analysis, respectively named a1a, b1a, and b2a. all collected samples in the air conditioner were transferred to the eppendorf tubes and processed with the extraction step. samples were resusponded in tens buffer with sds and proteinase k as described by vinod 29 . after incubation at 55 °c, phenol/chloroform/isoamyl alcohol was added to remove proteins, and the nucleic acid was precipitated with isopropanol and sodium acetate (0.3 m). total dna was dissolved in 1 × te after washing with 75% ethanol. and then the quality and quantity tests were conducted by agarose gel electrophoresis, . for pcr product, the jagged ends of dna fragment would be converted into blunt ends by using t4 dna polymerase, klenow fragment and t4 polynucleotide kinase. then add an ' a' base to each 3' end to make it easier to add adapters. after all that, fragments too short would be removed by ampure beads. for genomics dna, we use fusion primer with dual index and adapters for pcr, fragments too short would be removed by ampure beads too. in both cases, only the qualified library can be used for sequencing. the quality and quantity of libraries were assessed using the 2130 bioanaylzer (agilent technologies) and the steponeplus real-time pcr system (applied biosystems). the raw data generated by miseq and hiseq 2000 sequencers was processed to eliminate the adapter pollution and low quality to obtain clean reads. the qualified clean data was used for the further bioinformatics analysis. firstly, paired-end reads with overlap were merged to tags by software flash (v1.2.11) 30 , and then tags were clustered to otu at 97% sequence similarity using usearch (v7.0.1090) 31 . secondly, taxonomic ranks were assigned to otu representative sequence using ribosomal database project (rdp) na, e bayesian classifier v.2.2 32 . at last, alpha diversity, beta diversity and the different species screening were analyzed based on otu and taxonomic ranks by mothur (v1.31.2) 33 . in order to fully understand the community structure of fungal sample and analyse fungus microbial diversity, while excluding errors that human operation brings, genome sequencing method in fields of molecular biology was employed in this study to obtain micro biological information. illumina company developed miseq method with higher flux and simple operation and lower cost for genome sequencing. besides, the synthesis of side edge sequencing method with higher reliability is more suitable for laboratory community structure. the high-throughput sequencing was found to be useful to characterize compositions and diversities of moulds. the gene sequence of the test samples from genome sequencing was dealed with, such as stitching and matching, and the sample had a total of 59309 high quality fungal sequences, with an average length of 219 bp. the optimized sequence and the average length of the sample are shown in table 2 . otu and abundance analysis. stitching and optimising the tags, in order to be the otu (operational taxonomic units) for species classification, gathering in the 97% similarity, and the statistics of each sample in the abundance of information in each otu were done 31, [34] [35] . rank otu curve is a form of species diversity in the sample, which can explain two aspects of sample diversity, that is, the richness and evenness of species in the sample. the richness of species in the samples represented by the horizontal length of the curve is wide, so that the sample species is more abundant. the uniformity of species in the samples from the curve reflects the longitudinal axis of the shape. that the curve is flat means that the sample has a higher composition of the species evenness. from fig. 4 , the species composition of b2a is the most abundant, and the uniformity is the highest. sample diversity analysis of observed species. alpha diversity is the analysis of species diversity in a single sample 33 , including the species observed index, shannon index, etc. the greater the two indices are, the more abundant species is in the sample. the species observed index reflects the richness of the community in the sample, which also refers to the number of species in the community, without taking into account the abundance of each species in the community. shannon index reflects the diversity of the community, and the species richness and evenness of species in the sample community. in the case of the same species richness, the greater the evenness of the species is in the community, the greater the diversity of the community is. observed species exponential dilution curve. random sample in the processed sequence, draw the sequence number for the abscissa and the corresponding species number can be detected as the ordinate, so as to form a curve production dilution curve, shown in fig. 5(a) . with the increase of the sample quantity, the number of species increase and gradually become stabilized. when the curve reaches the plateau, it can be considered that the depth of the sequencing has been basically covered all the species in the sample. at the same time, the observed species index can reflect the richness of community in the sample, that is, the number of species in the community. it can be seen that the distribution of fungal species richness is b2a > b1a > a1a. shannon exponential dilution curve. shannon index is affected not only by species richness in the sample community, but also by the evenness of species. in the case of the same species richness, the greater the evenness of the species is in the community, the more abundant diversity of the community is. it can be seen in the fig. 5 (b) that the fungal species diversity of the unit b is significantly more complex than the unit a, and the similarity of species diversity in two sampling points of unit b was very high. composition of microbial samples. figure 6 illustrates the species composition proportion of the three sampling points, and the proportion was redrew by removing the strains which were not detected in the sample. the results are shown in table 3 . the species with the largest proportion is the dominant fungi. according to the fungal genome sequencing analysis results, fungal components in different units at the same sampling were different, and that in the same unit at different sampling points were roughly similar. they were caused by the different environmental conditions. on the center of air cooling coil in unit a, candida accounted for 80%; on the center and against the wall of the air cooling coil in unit b, cladosporium accounted for 50%, accompanied by alternaria, emericella and other fungus. cladosporium is usually rich in outdoor air, but they will also grow on the indoor surfaces when the humidity is high. existing research shows that the cladosporium spore is an extremely important allergen in the airborne transmission, which could cause asthma attacks or similar respiratory disease in patients with allergic reactions 36 . some species of candida is a kind of conditional pathogenic fungi in the human body. growth prediction analysis of models. traditional microbial detection generally have the characteristics of hysteresis, which cannot play the role of prediction, but the use of mathematical models to predict the growth of microorganisms can timely and effectively predict the growth of microorganisms. therefore, it is very important to study the growth prediction model of the fungi in the air conditioning system. according to environmental conditions mentioned before, we established growth kinetics prediction model of cladosporium spp. to predict the rapid fungal growth in the experimental conditions, which can provide a theoretical basis for air microbial contamination prediction system and help evaluate the health risk inside buildings. the models were fitted by origin software (version 8) and matlab r2014a, and the fitting conditions of logistic model and gompertz model were compared under different temperature and humidity conditions. the fitting effect between these two models and the fitting results of the two models were compared, and the corresponding model parameters were obtained. in addition, the square root model was fitted based on the two environmental factors. experimental study on the hygrothermal response of fungus. laboratory studies have revealed that fungal growth and reproduction are affected by water, temperature, nutrients, micro-elements, ph, light, carbon dioxide, and oxygen tension 37 .the most relevant determinants of fungal proliferation in the building context are water/moisture and temperature, and to a certain extent those factors affect other environmental factors such as substrate ph, osmolarity, nutrient, material properties etc 37, 38 .in order to lay the foundation for the fitting model, and to study the growth characteristics of fungi in different temperature and relative humidity, we set an experimental study on the hygrothermal response of fungus. from the results of fungal genome sequencing and literature research 39-41 , we selected cladosporium spp. and penicillium spp. as the research objects which are both common in air conditioning systems.this paper mainly studied the status of microbial contamination in air handling units so that the air temperature of each part of the air handling unit should be considered. the temperature gradient of 20 °c − 25 °c − 30 °c and relative humidity gradient of 45%− 60%− 75%− 80% were selected as experimental hygrothermal conditions. the results of hygrothermal experiments are shown in figs 7, 8, 9. it can be known that growth rate of cladosporium spp. is faster than that of penicillium spp., in any experimental conditions, which is the essential characteristics of a strain, is hygrothermal response control method cannot change. these data indicated that low rh environments can reduce or even inhibit fungal growth. this observation agrees with findings by w. tang and pasanen 42,43 . growth prediction analysis based on logistic model. logistic model is a typical model of biological ecology, which has been widely used in the field of biological ecology 44 . according to the actual research, the following formula equation (1) was obtained after the appropriate change of the logistic equation. n was the colony growth diameter, cm; t was the microbial growth culture time, h; a 1 , a 2 , x 0 , p as the model parameters. it can be seen from the table 4 , the fitting curve of logistic model is similar to the experimental results. at 20 °c and 30 °c temperature conditions, the model's fitting effect is excellent, and r 2 is greater than 0.99; at 25 °c temperature conditions, the model fitting effect is not as good as other temperature conditions. predicting the growth of microorganisms. the pmp program developed by the ministry of agriculture to establish the model of pathogenic bacteria is the basic model for the study of gompertz equation. gompertz model has been widely used in the field of biology. gompertz model expression was as equation (2): c n was the colony growth diameter, cm; t was the microbial growth culture time, h; a, a, k, x c as the model parameters. it can be seen from the table 5 that the fitting curve of gompertz model is better fitted to the measured parameters. at the same temperature, with the increase of relative humidity, gompertz model fitting effect is better; the model is well fitted at the temperature of 25 °c and the fitting effect is better than 20 °c and 30 °c temperature conditions. the fitting of logistic model to the growth of the fungus is better than that of the gompertz model. the two models are tested by the deviation factor b f and the accuracy factor a f in the mathematical model test. staphylococcus xylosus were studied by mcmeekin 45 . they found that when t min is fixed, for each ϕ , the relationship between growth rate and temperature can be described by using the square root model. the combined effects of these two variables can be expressed by the modified equation (3): in the formula, u is the growth rate of fungus, cm/h; b 2 is the coefficient; t is the culture temperature, °c; t min is the most important parameter of square root equation, and it refers to the lowest temperature when the growth rate is zero, °c; ϕ is relative humidity of the cultivation, %. by using the logistic primary model, the predictive value of the growth rate of the cladosporium colony growth rate (instantaneous velocity) was obtained, as table 6 shows. through the model fitting, the parameters of the square root model could be obtained, as table 7 shows, and the model fitting of predicting growth of cladosporium was shown as fig. 10 . the model equation of b f value was between 0.90-1.05, indicating that the model used to predict the range of the experimental environment in cladosporium colony growth condition. at the same time, the a f value of the model was 1.05169 that is closed to 1, which shows that the model has high accuracy. table 7 . model fitting and model parameters of double factor square root. this study selected two central air conditioning systems at a venue in dalian as the objects. actual measurement and a series of studies were carried out on microbial pollution characteristic, and the results are shown as below: (1) the bacterial colony forming units of the two measuring points in unit b were 192 cfu/cm 2 and 828 cfu/cm 2 , respectively, which exceeded the hygienic specification of central air conditioning ventilation system in public buildings of china (≤ 100cfu/cm 2 ), and the rest of the test points met the relevant standards of china. the distribution of bacteria was more than fungi, and the concentration was higher. with the total characteristics of different distribution density, the area of dust associated microorganisms and the air pollution were more serious. (2) alternaria spp., candida spp., cercospora spp. and cladosporium spp. existed in both units. the candida spp. accounted for 80% in unit a, and the cladosporium spp. occupied 50% in unit b. the composition of fungi in b was more complicated. two dominant fungi are both deleterious to health, so the timely maintenance and cleaning are required. it is suggested that the operating space should be reserved in the air conditioning room, so as to avoid incomplete cleaning and disinfection. (3) within the experimental temperature and relative humidity, with the increase of relative humidity or temperature, the colony growth of the same strain showed an increasing trend. for the prediction model of the fungus growth, the study found that the overall fitting effect of logistic model is better, and r 2 values were greater than 0.97. logistic model for the cladosporium spp. growth was better than gompertz model. at the same time, considering the influence of temperature and relative humidity, the square root model can well predict the growth of cladosporium spp. it provides a theoretical basis for the growth of fungi in the air conditioning system under the hygrothermal environment conditions. why, when and how do hvac-systems pollute the indoor environment and what to do about it? the european airless project the control technology of microbial contamination in air conditioning system overview of biological pollution prevention methods in air conditioning system. heating ventilating and air conditioning relationships between air conditioning, airborne microorganisms and health. bulletin de l'academie nationale de medecine a review of the biological pollution characteristics, standards and prevention and control technologies of central air-conditioning system risks of unsatisfactory airborne bacteria level in air-conditioned offices of subtropical climates development of a method for bacteria and virus recovery from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (hvac) filters microbial air quality at szczawnica sanatorium the national institute for occupational safety and health indoor environmental evaluation experience air pollution sources in offices and assembly halls quantified by the olf unit control and improvement of building indoor biological pollution a major outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in hong kong epidemiological investigation of an outbreak of pandemic influenza a (h1n1) 2009 in a boarding school: serological analysis of 1570 cases a study on the effective removal method of microbial contaminants in building according to bioviolence agents performance analysis of a direct expansion air dehumidification system combined with membrane-based total heat recovery hvac systems as emission sources affecting indoor air quality: a critical review testing and analysis for microbes and particles in central air conditioning systems of public buildings. heating ventilating and air conditioning endotoxins and bacteria in the humidifier water of air conditioning systems for office rooms investigation and review of microbial pollution in air conditioning systems of public buildings. heating ventilating and air conditioning study on the microbial secondary pollution and control in air conditioning system research on the dust deposition in ventilation and air conditioning pipe. heating ventilating and air conditioning hygienic specification of central air conditioning ventilation system in public buildings indoor air part17: detection and enumeration of moulds-culture-based method macro genomics approach in environmental microbial ecology and genetic search application study of the microbiome in waiting rooms of a japanese hospital fungal colonization of automobile air conditioning systems changes in airborne fungi from the outdoors to indoor air; large hvac systems in nonproblem buildings in two different climates research on the microbial diversity analysis in the sediment and macro genomic library at the south pole, xiamen university isolation of vibrio harveyi bacteriophage with a potential for biocontrol of luminous vibriosis in hatchery environments fast length adjustment of short reads to improve genome assemblies highly accurate otu sequences from microbial amplicon reads ribosomal database project: data and tools for high throughput rrna analysis introducing mothur: open-source, platform-independent, community-supported software for describing and comparing microbial communities the silva ribosomal rna gene database project: improved data processing and web-based tools naive bayesian classifier for rapid assignment of rrna sequences into the new bacterial taxonomy study on the relationship between dominant fungi in the air and the allergic asthma in children field guide for the determination of biological contaminants in environmental samples separate effects of moisture content and water activity on the hyphal extension of penicillium rubens on porous media investigation and review of microbial pollution in air conditioning systems of public buildings. heating ventilating and air conditioning microorganisms and particles in ahu systems: measurement and analysis the indoor fungus cladosporium halotolerans survives humidity dynamics markedly better than aspergillus niger and penicillium rubens despite less growth at lowered steady-state water activity effects of temperature, humidity and air flow on fungal growth rate on loaded ventilation filters fungal growth and survival in building materials under fluctuating moisture and temperature conditions mathematical modeling of growth of salmonella in raw ground beef under isothermal conditions from 10 to 45 °c model for combined effect of temperature and salt concentration/water activity on the growth rate of staphylococcus xylosus the study is supported by the national nature science foundation of china (51308088), beijing key lab of heating, gas supply, ventilating and air conditioning engineering (nr2013k05), the fundamental research funds for the central universities (dut14qy24) and the urban and rural housing construction science and technology plan project (2014-k6-012). key: cord-027120-w6agcu63 authors: lago, andré sousa; dias, joão pedro; ferreira, hugo sereno title: conversational interface for managing non-trivial internet-of-things systems date: 2020-05-25 journal: computational science iccs 2020 doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-50426-7_29 sha: doc_id: 27120 cord_uid: w6agcu63 internet-of-things has reshaped the way people interact with their surroundings. in a smart home, controlling the lights is as simple as speaking to a conversational assistant since everything is now internet-connected. but despite their pervasiveness, most of the existent iot systems provide limited out-of-the-box customization capabilities. several solutions try to attain this issue leveraging end-user programming features that allow users to define rules to their systems, at the cost of discarding the easiness of voice interaction. however, as the number of devices increases, along with the number of household members, the complexity of managing such systems becomes a problem, including finding out why something has happened. in this work we present jarvis, a conversational interface to manage iot systems that attempts to address these issues by allowing users to specify time-based rules, use contextual awareness for more natural interactions, provide event management and support causality queries. a proof-of-concept was used to carry out a quasi-experiment with non-technical participants that provides evidence that such approach is intuitive enough to be used by common end-users. the internet of things (iot) is usually defined as the networked connection of everyday objects with actuating and sensing capabilities, often equipped with a collective sense of intelligence [21] . the integration of such objects creates a vast array of distributed systems that can interact with both the environment and the human beings around them, in a lot of different ways [21] . this flexibility of iot systems has enabled their use across many different product areas and markets, including smart homes, smart cities, healthcare, transportation, retail, wearables, agriculture and industry [17] . still, one of the most visible application of iot are customized smart spaces, such as smart homes as the current technology make it possible for consumers to create a customized iot experience based on off-the-shelf products [16] . the initial popularity of devices such as single-board computers and low-cost micro-controllers, followed by widespread cloud-based solutions controlled by mobile phones, it is now commonplace to remotely interact with a myriad of devices to perform automated tasks such as turning the lights on and opening the garage door just before one arrives home [16, 22] . but as the number of devices and interactions grows, so does the management needs of the system as a whole, as it becomes essential to understand and modify the way they (co)operate. in the literature this capability commonly known as end-user programming [6] , and once we discard trained system integrators and developers, two common approaches emerge: visual programming tools and conversational assistants [22] . visual programming solutions are usually deployed as centralized orchestrators, with access to the devices and components that comprise such systems. these platforms range from simplified if-then rules (e.g. ifttt 1 ) to exhaustive graphical interfaces (e.g. node-red 2 ) through which one can visualize, configure and customize the devices and systems' behaviour [7, 19, 20] . most visual approaches attempt to offer integration with third-party components (e.g., google calendar), so that their services can be used as part of the system's behavioural rules. these solutions, however, possess some disadvantages for non-technical endusers. consider a node-red system orchestrating an user's smart home with multiple devices. even in situations where there are only a couple of dozen rules defined, it can be challenging to understand why a specific event took place due to the overwhelming data flow that results from these. furthermore, just one dozen rules can already lead to a system not possible to visualize in a single screen [11] . the more rules one adds, the harder it becomes to conceptually grasp what the system can do. part of the reason is because they are built to be imperative, not informative; current solutions mostly lack in meta-facilities that enable the user or the system to query itself [5] . another common, and sometimes complementary, alternative to visual programming, is the many conversational assistants in the market, such as google assistant, alexa, siri and cortana, that are capable of answering natural language questions and which recently gained the ability to interact with iot devices (see [18] and [15] for a comparison of these tools). amongst the most common features they provide is allowing direct interaction with sensing and actuating devices, which enables the end-user to talk to their light bulbs, thermostats, sound systems, and even third-party services. the problem with these solutions is that they are mostly comprised of simple commands and queries directly to the smart devices (e.g. is the baby monitor on? ", "what is the temperature in the living room? ", or "turn on the coffee machine". these limitations mean that although these assistants do provide a comfortable interaction with devices, a huge gap is easily observable regarding their capabilities on managing a system as a whole and allowing the definition of rules for how these smart spaces oper-ate. even simple rules like "close the windows everyday at 8pm" or "turn on the porch light whenever it rains" are currently not possible, unless one manually defines every single one of them as a capability via a non-conversational mechanism. furthermore, most assistant are deliberately locked to specific vendor devices, thus limiting the overall experience and integration. one can conclude that although current smart assistants can be beneficial and comfortable to use, they do not yet have the complexity and completeness that other systems like node-red. meanwhile, visual programming environments are still far too technical for the common end user. in this paper, we propose a system that tackles the problem of managing iot systems in a conversational approach, towards shortening the existing feature gap between assistants and visual programming environments. parts of this work are from [13] master's thesis. the rest of this document is structured as follows: sect. 2 provides a summary of related works which identify open research challenges; in sect. 3 we propose our approach to support complex queries in conversational assistants, which implementation details are further presented in sect. 4; we proceed in sect. 5 to evaluate our approach using simulated scenarios and experimental studies. finally, sect. 6 drafts some closing remarks. there exists some work in this area that recognize the problem of controlling and managing iot infrastructures by an end-user via a several approaches. kodali et al. [12] present an home automation system to "increase the comfort and quality of life", by developing an android app that is able to control and monitor home appliances using mqtt, node-red, ifttt, mongoose os and google assistant. their limitations lie in that the flows must first have been first created in node-red, and the conversational interface is used just to trigger them, ignoring all the management activities. austerjost et al. [3] recognized the usefulness of voice assistants in home automation and developed a system that targets laboratories. possible applications reported in their paper include stepwise reading of standard operating procedures and recipes, recitation of chemical substance or reaction parameters to a control, and readout of laboratory devices and sensors. as with the other works presented, their voice user interface only allows controlling devices and reading out specific device data. he et al. [9] , concludes that, even with conversational assistants, most of iot systems have usability issues when faced with complex situations. as example, the complexity of managing devices schedules rises with the number of devices and the common conflicting preferences of household members. nonetheless, as concluded by ammari et al. [2] , controlling iot devices is one of the most common uses of such assistants. agadakos et al. [1] focus on the challenge of understanding the causes and effects of an action to infer a potential sequence. their work is based on a mapping the iot system' devices and potential interactions, measuring expected behaviours with traffic analysis and side-channel information (e.g. power) and detecting causality by matching the mapping with the collected operational data. this approach would potentially allow the end user to ask why is something happening, at the cost of modified hardware and a convoluted side-channel analysis. they did not attempted to port their findings into a conversational approach. braines et al. [4] present an approach based on controlled natural language (cnl) -natural language using only a restricted set of grammar rules and vocabulary -to control a smart home. their solution supports (1) direct question/answer exchanges, (2) questions that require a rationale as response such as "why is the room cold?" and (3) explicit requests to change a particular state. the most novel part of their solution is in trying to answer questions that require a rational response, however they depend on a pre-defined smart home model that maps all the possible causes to effects. from the above analysis, the authors were not able to found any solution that would simultaneously provide: (1) a non-trivial management of an iot system, (2) be comfortable and easy to use by a non-technical audience, and (3) allow the user to better understand how the system is functioning. by non-trivial we mean that it should be possible to define new rules and modify them via a conversational approach, achieving a de facto integration of multiple devices; not just directly interacting with its basic capabilities. the comfort would be for the user not to have to move or touch a device to get his tasks done (i.e. using voice), or edit a node-red visual flow. as to understanding their system's functioning, we mean the ability to grasp how and why something is happening in their smart space. this last point, combined with the other two, would ideally allow someone to simply ask why something happens. we propose the development of a conversational bot dedicated to the management of iot systems that is capable of defining and managing complex system rules. our prototype is called jarvis, and is available as a reproducible package [14] . jarvis's abilities reach across different levels of operational complexity, ranging from direct one-time actions (e.g. turn on the light) to repeating conditional actions (e.g. when it is raining, close the windows). jarvis also lets the user easily understand and modify the rules and cooperation of multiple devices in the system, through queries like why did the toaster turn on? in these cases, we incorporated jarvis with conversational awareness to allow for chained commands; the following dialogue exemplifies this particular feature: user: "why did the toaster turn on? " jarvis: "you told me to turn it on at 8 am." user: "okay, change it to 7:50 am." jarvis: "sure, toaster timer was changed." ... the reader would note that the second user's query would not make sense on its own. we believe that such features improve the user's experience since it avoids repeating information that has already been mentioned in the conversation, and presents a more natural (conversational) interaction. to ease the integration with nowadays systems and provide us an experimental reproducible environment, we integrated the interface with existing platforms such as google assistant 3 and slack 4 , amongst others. we made sure to provide the ability for jarvis to interact both via voice and text. to develop the conversational interface, we decided to opt for dialogflow 5 as this platform provides built-in integration with multiple popular frontends and there exists extensive documentation for this purpose [10] . in this case, we used (1) the slack team-communication tool, and (2) google assistant, so that both text and voice interfaces were covered. in the case of google assistant, the user may use any supported device paired with their account to communicate with jarvis, following a known query prefix such as "hey google, talk to jarvis". regardless of which type of interface is used, the result is converted to strings representing the exact user query and subsequently sent to dialogflow's backend (thus overcoming potential challenges due to speech recognition), which are then analyzed using natural language processing (nlp) techniques. advancement of the existent nlp techniques made available by dialogflow falls out-of-the-scope of this work. upon receiving a request, dialogflow can either produce an automatic response or send the parsed request to a fulfillment backend. this component is thus responsible for parsing the incoming strings into a machine understandable format (json). there are a few key concepts that are leveraged in our implementation: entity. things that exist in a specific iot ecosystem can be represented by different literal strings; for example, an entity identified by toggleable-device may be represented by "living room light" or "kitchen light". additionally, entities may be represented by other entities. dialogflow use of the @ symbol (i.e. @device) for entities, and provides some system's defaults; intent. an intent represents certain type of user interaction. for instance, an intent named turn on/off device may be represented by turn the @device on and turn the @device off. for a request such as "turn the kitchen light on", dialogflow understands that @device corresponds to kitchen light and provides that data to the fulfillment backend; context. contexts allow intents to depend on previous requests, enabling the creation of context-aware interactions. these are what supports queries such as "cancel that" or "change it to 8am". multiple intents, entities and contexts were defined in jarvis and the main ones are illustrated in fig. 2 . here we provide in detail one of its intents: usage creates an action that is performed upon a certain event, such as an activity of another device or a change of a device's status. definition @action:action when @event:event example turn the bedroom light on when the living room light turns off with the above definitions, this component takes requests and builds the corresponding objects containing all actionable information to be sent to the jarvis backend for further processing. for each of the defined intents, this component has an equivalent class responsible for (a) parsing the request, (b) validating its request parameters (e.g. device name or desired action), and (c) generating an appropriate response. an overview is provided in fig. 3 . should the request contain errors, an explanatory response is returned. when all the parameters are considered valid, but the intended device is unclear (e.g. user wants to turn on the light, but there is more than one light), the generated response specifically asks the user for further clarification in order to gain context. to tackle cancellation intents, we model all actions using the command design pattern, thus providing both a straightforward execute and undo mechanism, as well as an history of performed actions. for most intents, such as direct actions or "why did something happen?" queries, the effects are immediate. however, period actions, events and causality queries require a different design approach so that they can perform actions on the backend without the need for a request to trigger them. a period action is an intent be carried and then undone after a certain period (e.g. "turn on the light from 4 pm to 5 pm"). in these scenarios, we generate a state machine to differentiate between all the different action status, such as (a) nothing has executed yet (before 4pm), (b) only the first action was executed (after 4 but before 5pm), and (c) both have been executed (after 5pm). we use a combination of schedulers and threads to guarantee proper action, and abstract all these details inside the command pattern. the same strategy applies for rules such as "turn on the light every day at 5 pm", with the appropriate state machine and scheduler modifications. this mechanism is (obviously) different for events that are the result of intentions such as "turn on the kitchen light when the presence sensor is activated". here, we leverage a publish-subscribe approach by orchestrating multiple unique and identifiable message queues for the devices' actions and state transitions. upon startup of the backend, we create class listeners that subscribe the corresponding event queues of available devices, and callback the jarvis backend when appropriate. this orchestration management is dynamic, and depends on the specific rules that are defined. in the aforementioned intent, we would add an observer to look for messages on the presence sensor's event queue with the value on. causality queries. this relate to the user asking why something happened (e.g. "why did the light turn on? "). to implement them, we augment each command to determine whether it can cause a specific condition to be true. this per se solves some scenarios where the answer can be found by looking at the history of executed commands (e.g. "because you asked me to turn it on at 3:56pm"). however, there might exist multiple rules may have cause the condition to be true, in which case it is not enough to blame the latest logged command. instead, there are two possible approaches: (a) return the earliest possible cause, or (b) use a heuristic to infer the most relevant one. another non-trivial scenario is where the explanation is due to a chain of interconnected rules. here, it seems that one can (a) reply with the complete chain of events, (b) reply with the latest possible cause, or (c) engage in a conversation through which the user can explore the full chain of events as they deem adequate (e.g. "tell me more about things that are triggered by rain"). in this work, we opted to use the earliest possible cause for the first scenario, and the latest for the second; more complex alternatives can be found in [1, 4] . in order to understand how jarvis compares to other systems, we established a baseline based on (1) a visual programming language, and (2) a conversational interface. node-red was picked amongst the available visual programming solution, as it is one of the most popular visual programming solutions [8] . it follows a flow-based programming paradigm, providing its users with a web-based application through which they can manage rules via connections between nodes that represent devices, events and actions [20] . google assistant was selected for the conversational interface due to its naturality 6 . there are plenty of ways users can interact with it: (a) the standalone google apps, (b) built-in integration with android and chrome os, or (c) with standalone hardware such as the google home. we compare to this baseline according to two criteria: (1) the number of different features, and (2) their user experience in terms of easiness of usage and intuitiveness. for the first, we created a list of simulated scenarios to assess the ability to manage iot systems. we then performed a (quasi-)controlled experiment with users to assess the second criteria. table 1 summarizes the comparison of our prototype to the chosen baseline. it is important to clarify that one-time action w/ unclear device refers to actions like "turn on the light" with which jarvis asks the user to clarify which device he means based through responses such as "do you mean the bedroom or living room light?". a cancel last command refers to the ability of undoing the last action or rule creation by specifically saying that. finally, rules defined for device refers to the user performing queries that require introspection, such as "what rules are defined for the bedroom light?" it is easy to observe that our prototype provides several features that are not present in either the google assistant or node-red. both of these products do a lot more than these features, but especially with the assistant, the advantage is clear since the only kind of iot feature it supports is the one-time action. our second conclusion is that it is possible to bring some of the features currently available in visual programming environments to a conversational interface; the converse (how to bring conversational features to node-red), eludes the authors. we performed a (quasi-)controlled experiment with 17 participants, to gain insight into how end users responded to a conversational approach. our sample includes mostly participants without formal technological skills (14) , with ages ranging from 18 to 51. we made sure that (a) all were familiar with basic technologies, though, such as basic usage of smartphones and the internet, and (b) that even non-native english participants had adequate speaking and understanding skills. methodology. each participant was given 5 tasks (1 control task and 4 study tasks) to be performed with the help of jarvis, using google assistant as the system interface. as an example, this was one of the sets of tasks given to participants within a scenario with a living room light, bedroom light and a living room motion sensor : the only instructions given were that they should talk to the phone in a way that feels the most natural to them to complete the task at hand. besides the tasks, participants were also given the list of iot devices available in the simulated smart house that they would be attempting to manage through. as a way of increasing the diversity and reducing the bias of the study, we created two different sets of tasks that participants were assigned to randomly. each set also had different devices, with different smart house topologies. the participants were assigned to one of the test sets randomly. variable identification. for each of the tasks, we collected (1) if the participant was able to complete it, (2) the time taken to complete, and (3) the number of unsuccessful queries. this count was made separately for (a) queries that were not understood by the assistant's speech recognition capabilities (e.g. microphone malfunction, background noise), (b) queries where the user missed the intention or made a syntactic/semantic error (e.g. "turn up the lighting"), and (c) valid queries that an human could interpret, but that jarvis was unable to. subjective perception. after completing the tasks, we introduced a nonconversational alternative (node-red), explaining how all tasks could have been performed using that tool. we inquired the participants whether they perceived any advantages of jarvis over such a tool, and whether they would prefer jarvis over non-conversational tools. finally the participants were asked if they had any suggestions to improve jarvis and the way it handles system management. results. table 2 compiles the results observed during the study, each row representing a task given to the participant. each column means: -task: number of the task (0-4) and the task set number in parenthesis (1/2); -done: percentage of participants that completed the task successfully; -time: time in seconds that participants took to complete the task; -iq (ast): number of occurrences that queries were incorrect due to the google assistant not properly recognizing the user's speech; -iq (user): number of occurrences that queries were incorrect due to the user not speaking a valid query; -iq (jvs): number of occurrences that queries were incorrect due to jarvis not recognizing a valid query; -iq: total invalid queries, i.e. sum of iq (ast), iq (user) and iq (jvs). discussion. the complexity of the queries increases from task 0 to task 3 since the queries require more words or interactions. this is reflected by the corresponding increase in time in both task sets. the numbers related to incorrect queries show some occurrences at the (voice) assistant level, which means the speech recognition failed to correctly translate what the participants said. although this does not have implications on the evaluation of jarvis, it does indicate that this sort of systems might be harder to use due if they are not truly multilingual. directly comparing the time needed to complete a task to what would be needed to perform it in a visual programming language is meaningless; either the task is not defined, and that would require orders of magnitude longer than what we observe here, or the task is defined and the times will be obviously similar. similarly, we also observe a few instances of incorrect queries due to grammar mistakes or semantically meaningless, cf. iq (user), and therefore did not match the sample queries defined in dialogflow. nevertheless, there where grammatically incorrect user queries such as "turn on lights" but which still carries enough information to understand what the user's intent is. we consider more serious the number of valid sentences that were considered incorrect queries by jarvis, cf. iq (jvs). these could have been caused by either a mispronunciation of a device's name, or a sentence structure that is unrecognizable by the dialogflow configuration. this possibly represents the most serious threat to our proposal, to which we will later dedicate some thoughts on how to mitigate it. nonetheless, the success rate of all tasks is very high (always greater than 88%), which provides evidence that the system might be intuitive enough to be used without previous instruction or formation. these points were reflected by the participants' subjective perception, were they claimed jarvis to be easy to use, intuitive, and comfortable; ultimately, these would be the deciding factors for end-users to prefer jarvis over a non-conversational interface. an additional observation pertaining jarvis' answers, particularly those regarding causality queries, were state by some users, where they claimed that if the provided response was too long, it would become harder to understand it due to the sheer increase of conveyed information. a possible solution for this problem would be to use a hybrid interface that provides both visual and audio interactions, but there could be other approaches such as an interactive dialogue that shortens the sentences. threats to validity. empirical methods seem to be one of the most appropriate techniques for assessing our approach (as it involves the analysis of humancomputer interaction), but it is not without liabilities that might limit the extent to which we can assess our goals. we identify the following threats: (1) natural language capabilities, where queries like "enable the lights" might not be very common or semantically correct, but it still carries enough information so that a human would understand its intention. the same happen with device identification, such as when the user says turn on the bedroom lights, and the query fails due to the usage of the plural form. during our study, we observed many different valid queries that did not worked due to them not being covered by the dialogflow configuration; (2) coverage error, which refers to the mismatch between the target population and the frame population. in this scenario, our target population was (non-technical) end-users, while the frame population was all users that volunteered to participate; and (3) sampling errors are also possible, given that our sample is a small subset of the target population. repeating the experience would necessarily cover a different sample population, and likely attain different results. we mitigate these threats by providing a reproducible package [14] so other researchers can perform their own validation. in this paper we presented a conversational interface prototype able to carry several different management tasks currently not supported by voice assistants, with capabilities that include: (1) delayed, periodic and repeating actions, enabling users to perform queries such as "turn on the light in 5 min" and "turn on the light every day at 8 am"; (2) the usage of contextual awareness for more natural conversations, allowing interactions that last for multiple sentences and provide a more intuitive conversation, e.g. "what rules do i have defined for the living room light?"; (3) event management, that allows orchestration of multiples devices that might not necessarily know that each other exists, e.g. "turn on the light when the motion sensor is activated"; and (4) causality queries, to better understand how the current system operates, e.g. "why did the light turn on?" we conducted (quasi-)controlled experiments with participants that were asked to perform certain tasks with our system. the overall high success rate shows that the system is intuitive enough to be used by people without significant technological knowledge. it also shows that most challenges lie in the natural language capabilities of the system, as it is hard to predict them any user queries that have the same intrinsic meaning. we thus conclude that incorporating recent nlp advances (that were beyond the scope of this paper) would have an high impact in terms of making it more flexible to the many different ways (correct or incorrect) that users articulate the same intentions. nonetheless, by doing a feature comparison, we can observe that jarvis was able to implement many features that current conversational assistants are lacking, while simultaneously being more user-friendly than the available alternatives to iot management (such as visual programming approaches). as future work, we believe that our approach could be improved by sometimes engaging in a longer (but fragmented) conversation with the user, particularly when providing causality explanations. this would allow the user to understand more information at his own pace, but also because it would enable them to make changes to the rules as the conversation unfolds. butterfly effect: causality from chaos in the iot music, search, and iot: how people (really) use voice assistants introducing a virtual assistant to the lab: a voice user interface for the intuitive control of laboratory instruments conversational homes: a uniform natural language approach for collaboration among humans and devices a reactive and model-based approach for developing internet-of-things systems meta-design: a manifesto for end-user development end-user development fog at the edge: experiences building an edge computing platform when smart devices are stupid: negative experiences using home smart devices hands-on chatbots and conversational ui development: build chatbots and voice user interfaces with chatfuel, dialogflow, microsoft bot framework, twilio, and alexa skills visual dataflow modelling -some thoughts on complexity low cost smart home automation system using smart phone exploring complex event management in smart-spaces through a conversation-based approach andrelago13/jarvis: initial release alexa vs. siri vs. cortana vs. google assistant: a comparison of speech-based natural user interfaces an iot-based user-centric ecosystem for heterogeneous smart home environments from the internet of things to the internet of people conversational interface challenges. developing conversational interfaces for ios from iot mashups to model-based iot a survey on visual programming languages in internet of things internet of things strategies for the integration of smart technologies into buildings and construction assemblies key: cord-314779-f5nvspcg authors: roth, steffen; valentinov, vladislav title: east of nature. accounting for the environments of social sciences date: 2020-06-07 journal: ecol econ doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106734 sha: doc_id: 314779 cord_uid: f5nvspcg at the core of ecological economics is the image of the economy as an open system embedded in the natural environment whose carrying capacity is limited. the present paper revisits this image by drawing upon the constructivist implications of luhmann's social systems theory. to luhmann, the modern society consists of a multitude of social systems each bringing forth and observing their own environments. if the luhmannian vision is accepted, then ecological economics can be said to privilege the observational perspective of natural sciences. the unfortunate consequence of this privileging is the underestimation of a broad range of multidimensional sustainability risks which are foregrounded by the numerous alternative observational perspectives which are just as legitimate. it is argued that, rather than relativizing the sustainability concerns of the modern ecological economics, the luhmannian perspective generalizes and radicalizes them. in doing so, the latter perspective opens new possibilities not only for navigating these risks but also for envisioning new resources and solutions. the understanding of the present-day sustainability challenges, as well as the practice of sustainability accounting, rest on specific assumptions about the relationship of the economy to its outer environment. for many ecological economists, these assumptions are centred around the idea that the economy is an open system embedded in the environment which is usefully classified into societal and natural. karl william kapp (1985, p. 152) , an early contributor to the ecological economics literature, seminally attributed the phenomenon of social costs not only to the corporate decision-making under capitalism, but also to "the open-system character of the economy". this open system character of the economy has many implications, such as materiality and the relevance of multiple time-space scales, each calling for a multidisciplinary approach (luzzati, 2009; luzzati, 2010a luzzati, , 2010b . most importantly for the present purposes, the open systems character that makes the economy susceptible to the limits of the environmental carrying capacity. the vision of the economy as an open system embedded in a finite environment seems to also underlie, e.g., elkington (1997) triple bottom line concept. as elkington explained, "sustainable development involves the simultaneous pursuit of economic prosperity, environmental quality, and social equity. companies aiming for sustainability need to perform not against a single, financial bottom line but against the triple bottom line" (ibid, p. 397) . the logic of the environmental embeddedness of the economy seems straightforward and impeccable. if the environmental carrying capacity is limited, and if systems populating this environment overstrain this carrying capacity, it is logical that they are in trouble (luzzati et al., 2014, p. 100 ). this trouble, or sustainability risks, can be given an alternative formulation suggested by niklas luhmann's theory of social systems. while ecological economics was admittedly not a central concern to luhmann, he devoted a 1989 book to the ongoing ecological crisis, which he took to be a specific illustration of the more general theme of the precariousness of the relations of social systems, of all types, to their outer environments. to luhmann, system-environment relations are precarious because of the fact that the main function of social systems is to reduce, externalize, or blind out the complexity of their environment. while the complexity-reducing function is highly valuable for boundedly rational individuals, it exposes social systems themselves to sustainability risks. thus, luhmann (1989, p. 62) came to the conclusion that "the key to the ecological problems, as far as the economy is concerned, resides in the language of prices… the economy cannot react to disturbances that are not expressed in this language". this argument strikes a chord with much of the ecological economics literature (valentinov, 2014a (valentinov, , 2014b , despite this literature's systems-theoretic focus on open systems (e.g., kapp, 1985; luzzati, 2009 luzzati, , 2010a rather than on the operational closure which is a mainstay of luhmann's thought. yet, what may turn out to be problematic for ecological economics is luhmann's social systems theory. he believed social systems to construct their own environments in the course of their functioning. this means that, apart from this functioning, and apart from the ways systems observe reality, the nature of the environments in which the systems are embedded cannot be specified. against this backdrop, the key research question of the present paper pertains to the clarification of the nature of sustainability risks from the point of view of his social systems theory. luhmann designates the modern society as polycontextural, or, as roth et al. (2019) explain, "constructed by alternative and contingent observational perspectives that may be mutually conflicting and discrepant". from this perspective, a polycontextural society does not have any single, fixed, and definitely known environment. instead, there is a multitude of social systems each bringing forth their own environments. contrast this implication with those of elkington's (1997) triple bottom line concept. elkington rightly assumed that the practice of the traditional bottom line rested on problematic assumptions about the nature of the relations of the economy with its outer environment, both societal and natural. elkington has questioned these assumptions and replaced them by his own, thus substituting one type of certainty for another. the essential luhmannian insight, however, is that in a polycontextural society, such certainty does not exist at all. instead, there is a multitude of social systems each bringing forth their own environments. consequently, if the focus on any type of the environment happens to be dominant or privileged, the role of the other possible and equally legitimate types of environments, and the sustainability risks associated therewith, most likely will be underestimated. insofar as ecological economists can be said to privilege a certain observational perspective on the natural and societal environment, their professional knowledge, profound as it is, may yet turn out to be dangerously one-sided. the positive way of formulating the above contention is that the polycontextural regime of the modern society provides a space for a radical amplification and multiplication of sustainability concerns as the primary area of interest of many ecological economists. to make that case, the following sections reconsider the concept of nature underlying the ecological economics scholarship, contrast the notions of the environments embraced by the natural and social sciences, and on that basis, reconceptualize the triple bottom line approach in the emerging multienvironmental context. this reconceptualization opens new possibilities and envisions new resources for navigating sustainability risks. the paper concludes with a discussion of how these new possibilities and resources can be harnessed by strategic management tools. as a transdisciplinary field of study, "ecological economics addresses the relationships between ecosystems and economic systems in the broadest sense." (costanza, 1989, p . 1) while the latter focus has early been complemented by or extended to a social systems perspective, the primary goal of ecological economics (ee) has always remained the "sustainable wellbeing of both humans and the rest of nature" (costanza, 2020, p. 1) ; and in the pursuit of this worthy goal, the transdiscipline has consequently developed a high level of facility in incorporating and combining insights from economics, further social sciences, and the natural sciences. yet, the implication that economics is a social science may also be contested for an economics that accentuates the word ecological and aims to "recast economics as a life science" (røpke, 2004, p. 300; van passel, 2007, p. 31; costanza, 2020, p. 1) . there is hence a considerable tension between this organic view of economics and the increasingly popular demands for an advancement of its social sciences stream (spash, 2011 (spash, , 2012 , as it seems hard to impossible to reconciliate those who "remain wary (…) that the basis of human social relations can be reduced to, and essentialized within, the natural world" (hird, 2010, p. 738) with those convinced that "(d) etermining what is necessary for safeguarding environmental functions for future generations is a matter for the natural sciences." (hueting and reijnders, 2004, p. 255) . in fact, the contradiction could hardly be more blatant: on the one hand, proponents of the natural sciences camp suggest (ruth, 2006) and are criticised (van hecken et al., 2015) for building economic laws, social institutions, and ethical standards on natural scientific insights. on the other hand, the social sciences camp is accused of culturally turning its back on precisely these insights (hird, 2010) while holding that both money and nature, and hence the cornerstones of entire field, are social constructions (fourcade, 2011) . the fact of social construction may be derogatively registered by those who hold religious or metaphysical beliefs in the sanctity of nature as something primordial and antecedent to human activity (cf. blancke et al., 2015) . yet, the understandings of naturalness can be often themselves unmasked as social constructions framed by the prevailing institutional structure (cf. valentinov et al., 2019a valentinov et al., , 2019b . these and further severe contradictions notwithstanding, however, both streams of ecological economics agree on the general adequacy and utility of the attempted "integration and synthesis of economics and ecologynot the disciplines as they existed at the time, which were seen as too narrow in their conceptions of the issuesbut of the study of economic and social systems embedded in and interdependent with their ecological life support systems" (costanza, 2020, p. 2) . hence, the "recognition that the economy is embedded within society, which is embedded within the rest of nature" (ibid.) is widespread; and even if some reservation might apply to the implication that economy and society belong to the realm of nature, the convention to define sustainability along an economic, social, and ecological or environmental dimension (basiago, 1995; european commission, 2001 ) is well-established and has gained particular prominence under the "triple bottom line" label (elkington, 1994 (elkington, , 1998 mauerhofer, 2008; ahi et al., 2018; vatn, 2020 ) (see fig. 1 ). 1 as impactful, integrative, and intuitive this idea may be, it remains grounded in the assumption that the environment of society in general and the economy in particular is adequately referred to as nature. in the subsequent sections of this article, we shall contest this basic assumption, reclaim a social scientific approach to the concepts of environment and ecology, reconceptualises nature as the environmental view of the social subsystem called natural sciences, and extend this regional nature-perspective to a broader concept of environment. starting from its roots in the 1960s (e.g., boulding, 1966; daly, 1968 ) and likely extending well into the anticipated future of the discipline (costanza, 2020) , ecological economics has always been open to systems thinking. terms and ideas such as economic system, social system, system of life, ecosystem, or nature as system consequently belong to the basic conceptual equipment of the transdiscipline. yet, the dominant systems-theoretical paradigm of the transdiscipline seems to be anchored in the open systems theory going back to the groundbreaking work of the biologist ludwig von bertalanffy (cf. von bertalanffy, 1968). interestingly, the discipline of biology has brought forth an alternative and in a sense opposite systems-theoretical paradigm, the theory of operationally closed, "autopoietic" systems. in this context, autopoiesis means that "everything that is used as a unit by the system is produced as a unit by the system itself" (luhmann, 1990, p. 1 more differentiated models distinguish between larger numbers of nested systems, e.g., from the outside in, physical environment, society, institutionalpolitical system, and economy (luzzati, 2010b, p. 53) . 3). the latter paradigm, while anticipated by von bertalanffy himself, mainly originates from the work of natural scientists maturana and varela, 1992 who were searching for an encompassing biological definition of life. maturana and varela (ibid) came to understand the essence of life in terms of the interrelated phenomena of autopoiesis and operational closure, both of which have been later appropriated by luhmann. as autopoietic systems, living organisms "produce not only their structures, but also the elements of which they consist, within the network of these very elements" (luhmann, 2012, p. 76f) . as a result, autopoietic systems can be said to operate "only in the context of [their] own operations" (luhmann, 2018, p. 33) . if life is understood in terms of its autopoietic organization, it would follow that "(t)he structure of living systems and their actual (material) components are complementary yet distinct aspects of any biological explanation: they complement each other reciprocally but cannot be reduced to one another" (varela and maturana, 1972, p. 382) . we may read these lines as a reminder not to confuse our object of research with its footprint. life is not what it takes to live. as organisms, we are neither what we eat nor the air we breathe, and we are not our excrements and other ecological footprint either. and it is precisely this condition that explains why we do, and indeed can, crave for nutrition, water, oxygen, and all other environmental factors that we critically depend on. just as varela and maturana insisted on the dividing line between matter and life, niklas luhmann (1995 luhmann ( , 2013 drew and defended the distinction between the behaviour of autopoietic biological systems and the communicative autopoiesis of social systems, the latter of which he said to be reliant, yet not reducible to the level of individual behaviour. it is ironic that luhmann established this borderline between biological and social systems by drawing on a concept that was originally invented by biologists, and that this move exposed him to criticism from both natural and social scientists alike (see cadenas and arnold, 2015; king, 2001; mingers, 2002) , including humberto maturana: "i have had relatively long discussions with maturana on this point. he always told me that1 if one speaks of the autopoiesis of communication/ one has to show it. that is to say, one has to show that the concept really works in the domain of communication so that it is possible to state that an individual communicative act can come about only in the network of communication. it cannot be conceived as a one-time event. and it also cannot be conceived as produced externally, in a communication-free context, as it were-say, as a chemical artifact that then has a communicative effect. on the contrary, it must always be produced by and through communication. i believe that this claim does not create much difficulty. it is relatively easy to see-especially if one considers the linguistic tradition of saussure, for instance and all that came of it-that communication occurs via its own differences and has nothing to do with chemical or physical phenomena." (luhmann, 2013, p. 79) . the same intrinsic logic that draws the dividing line between biological and social systems as different forms of systems then also applies to the differentiation between different forms of social systems. thus, as much as biological and social systems constitute environments for each other, and as much as there is hence no overlap but only mutual influences or "irritation" between these two forms of systems, so too is there no overlap between different subsystems of the comprehensive social system we commonly refer to as society. if we now insist "that the economy is embedded within society" (costanza, 2020, p. 2) , then this claim is perfectly compatible with luhmannian social systems theory, in which the economy is a subsystem of society and thus a social system itself. a social systems-theoretical perspective also allows for the observation that the economic system is now confronted with two different forms of environment, namely one intra-societal and one extra-societal environment. there are, however, two major differences. first, a social systems-theoretical variant of the triple-bottom-line model depicted in fig. 1 , there would be no need for a border around the extra-social environment unless we intend to observe it as a(n eco)system and thus distinguish it from yet another environment (see fig. 2 ). the second big difference between an ecological economics and social systems-theoretical perspective is that the latter does not content itself with an ultimately cancelled negative definition of society as the complement of its economic subsystem. if we challenge the idea that society is properly defined as "economy and the rest of society", then we shift our focus from the economy to its intra-societal environment. in looking at this social ecology of the economy, however, we quickly realise that the economy is certainly not the only subsystem of society as politics, science, religion, art, or law clearly are social subsystems, too. as there is no system without environment, this discovery implies that all other systems are not only located in the intra-societal environment of the economy, but also locate the economy as much as all other in their respective intra-societal environments. in other words, the social ecology of the economy is made of numerous social systems, each of which has a different environment and thus a different view of the overall ecology of social systems. as each of these systems has a different view of the social ecology, they necessarily have a different view of the extra-societal environment, too. true, natural science defines this environment as nature; yet, from a religious point of view, this environment may be populated by spirits or gods, and most commonly referred to as one of these god's creation. for yet other subsystems, this environment might appear as an indefinite learning space or an equally gigantic though potentially shrinking stock of non-social resources. a truly social science that accounts for this multienvironmental condition would therefore need to refrain from over-identifying the extra-social environment with the environmental concepts and terminologies of the natural sciences. this is true because, first, it is hard to impossible to prove scientifically that one of the above-mentioned subsystems is essentially more important than the other(s). second, even if a scientific bias to science seems logical or at least comprehensible, it would still remain unclear why social sciences should favour an environmental concept of the natural sciences over a socialscientific one. in the subsequent section of this article, we shall therefore outline a social-scientific concept of environment, in the context of with the natural-scientific concept of nature is positioned as one environmental concept among others. regardless of whether we define ecological economics as a natural or a social science, it remains true that the economy is neither a natural nor a social science. as economy and science are two distinct though certainly interacting subsystems of society, the current situation, in which a transdisciplinary field attempts at almost coercing one social subsystem to adopt the environmental perspective of one branch of another subsystem, seems far from being natural. in looking at fig. 3 , the reductionist nature of this enterprise is even more evident: fig. 3 depicts a challenge and extension of the classical "3-d sustainability" (mauerhofer, 2008 ) models such as the triple-bottom-line and cognate frameworks. the basic feature of these models is that they locate the economy (the right-hand triangle) within society (the social environment of the economy triangle). society is then again embedded within an extra-social environment, which is commonly referred to as nature, ecosystem, or ecological environment. in order to observe ecosystems or nature, however, we need science in general and natural sciences in particular (luzzati et al., 2014, p. 100) . science, however, does not appear in its own models, which is as ironic as consequential as these models are used to argue that a sustainable economy must confuse its environment with the environment of the natural sciences. in fig. 3 , this condition is depicted as a prohibition to use an economic radar and obligation to use a natural scientific radar for environmental screening. as indicated earlier, in its more radical forms, this concurrent prohibition and obligation explicitly includes or is extended to the social environment, e.g., when ruth (2006, p. 339) suggests to establishing "the economic, legal, institutional and ethical basis" of sustainable human behaviour "on fundamental insights from the natural sciences". in revisiting fig. 3 , however, it becomes obvious that even this already enhanced version of the triple-bottom-line remains incomplete as economy and science are certainly not the only subsystems of society. moreover, it is just as sensible that these subsystems constantly influence each other. for instance, "(t)he political system depends upon informational and conceptual inputs and contributions from the other societal systems in the governance process-for example, the social and the natural sciences" (luks and siebenhüner, 2007, p. 418) , and the same is true vice versa. last not least, it is critical to realise that function systems constitute parts of the social environment for each other and that they are only one type of social systems that constitute the overall social environment, with other types being, for example, families or organizations. in figs. 3 and 4, the label "societal environment" is therefore written across the border between the "inner circle" from a social-scientific perspective, we therefore observe an entire ecology of interacting social subsystems and their corresponding environments. in the luhmannian terminology, what we observe is polycontexturality: a multitude of interdependent, yet mutually incommensurable and operationally closed systems bringing forth their unique definitions of both the societal and extra-societal environment. as important as the actually quite provincial natural environmental perspective might seem today against the backdrop of the urgent threats to its environment, so too is the perceived urgency no scientific argument to ignore, devalue, or even prohibit the environmental perspective of other subsystems of society in general and other subsystems of science in particular. however, from a social-scientific perspective, there is no need to ignore, devalue, or even prohibit the environmental perspective of the natural sciences either. rather, what is needed is a multifunctional perspective similar to the one depicted in fig. 4 . fig. 4 presents a social-scientific perspective on society and its internal and external environments. this perspective does not ignore, devalue, or even prohibit; to the contrary, it encourages the natural sciences to make universal claims about the nature of both the societal and the extra-societal environment of the economy or any other social system. yet, fig. 4 is also a reminder that universality must not be confused with exclusivity (luhmann, 1995, p. xlviii) . this means that each type of environment can harbour unique sustainability risks, many of which would remain unnoticed even by the modern sustainability concepts such as the triple bottom line concept. the relationship between the luhmannian systems theory and ecological economics is marked by a deep ambivalence, which, is not unique to the present paper. take the case of kenneth boulding, who was not only the author of the seminal "spaceship earth" metaphor but also an engaged systems theorist. whereas the spaceship metaphor evidently rested on boulding's firm belief in the certainty of the exhaustible and destructible nature of the environment of the economy, his systems-theoretical views were more open-ended. in his systemstheoretical treatise ecodynamics (boulding, 1978) , he titles one of the sections "the myth of the environment". in the section, he explains that "there is no such thing as an 'environment', if by this we mean a surrounding system that is independent of what goes on inside it. (…) it makes sense to divide the totality of the universe into parts that have some degree of independent dynamic pattern, but none of these parts is really independent of others: all interact. (…) everything is the environment of everything else" (ibid, p. 31). the luhmannian systems-theoretical perspective affirms the view that "there is no such thing as the environment", but for somewhat different reasons. if we agree that there is 1) no system without environment, 2) no ecology without a plurality of systems, and thus 3) no ecosystem without a plurality of environments, then we cannot assume the environment as a singular entity to be given with ontological certainty. it is rather the case that different social subsystems have different views of their environment, and that nature-the environment of the natural sciences-is nothing more or less than the environment of a subsystem of the scientific subsystem of society. does that mean that the luhmannian perspective relativizes the fundamental sustainability concerns of ecological economics? a sympathetic look at fig. 4 would suggest that these concerns are generalized and radicalized rather than relativized. while sustainability risks addressed by ecological economists are serious, they are observationally contingent. employing other observational perspectives may lead to the discovery of new dimensions of risks which are no less serious. on a more positive note, these risks may likewise engender entrepreneurial opportunities. just as the triple bottom line concept has provided inspiration for the development of sustainable business models (cf. joyce and paquin, 2016) , the polycontextural environment indicated in fig. 4 invites the use of strategic management tools for the purposes of the multienvironmental screening and accounting of the diverse logics and observational perspectives . these tools would open radically new possibilities for navigating multidimensional sustainability risks, particularly for those types of social systems (such as corporations) that are known to systematically blind out specific segments of environmental complexity or stakeholder interests valentinov et al., 2019a valentinov et al., , 2019b . take classical environmental scanning tools such as pest or its derivates pestle, steeple, steepled (see roth et al., 2017, p. 200f ), many of which give additional weight to ethics and the natural environment. while the individual letters p (politics), e (economy), s (society) and t (technology) have been continually supplemented or reshuffled, it is clear that critical aspects of the societal environment have escaped the attention of these and many other environmental scanning tools. health is one such factor, as the system does not seem to deserve a dedicated letter or specific attention and is typically lumped together with often both "political" and "social" issues. yet, the coronavirus crisis has shown in the most dramatic ways that such neglect may come at a cost. the same events have furthermore demonstrated the inescapable incommensurability of the individual spheres (kapp, 1977, p. 538; luzzati, 2009, p. 315) or subsystems of society (luhmann, 2002, p. 52; roth, 2019, p. 508) as emerging dilemmas or trade-offs between health on the one side and money or liberty on the other side clearly indicate that we are confronted here with some of "those questions that are in principle undecidable" (von foerster, 1992, p. 14) . in discussing the example of managerialized public health care, roth et al. (2019, p.8) argue that the "proliferation of this type of health care can be observed from multiple and equally legitimate points of view associated with the function systems, each of which potentially generates a distinct moral evaluation of this trend. business-like public health care may be politically endorsed (i.e. good) and economically efficient (i.e. good) while being inconsistent with medical professionalism and unchristian. it may at the same time present a setback for risk sport participants and probably even a scandal in the mass media system, while making no difference from an artistic or legal point of view. this diverse constellation of moral judgments shows the rise of business-like public health care to be simultaneously good, bad, and morally irrelevant. this example makes clear that functional differentiation precludes the automatic identification of economic, political, legal or scientific operations as inherently good or bad." in showing how quickly conventional judgments on the relative importance of the individual function systems may change, the 2020 coronavirus crisis, therefore, make a strong case that a better (mutual) understanding of how differently different function systems conceive of both their societal and extra-societal environment is essential. the basis of this understanding would be a strategic management tool that accounts for the, in principle, equal importance of all functions systems that could be acronymized "rhesamples" (roth et al., 2017, p. 201 ), a derivation from the initial letters of each of the 10 function systems: religion, health, economy, science, art, mass media, politics, law, education, and sport. as another implication for further research, a multiplication of sustainability concerns achievable by the proposed multienvironmental scanning would be capable of yielding information on the possible environmental shocks that might be suffered by specific social systems. that way, the introduction of multienvironmental scanning holds the potential to improve the resilience of the systems in question, a property which is often understood as the systemic capacity "to absorb change and disturbance and still maintain the same relationships" (holling, 1973, p. 14) . in the last decades, the concept of resilience rose to prominence in the context of the literature on the socio-ecological systems (ibid) and was applied to numerous other contexts. it was acknowledged that ensuring the resilience of the socio-ecological systems requires adaptive governance which must be conceptualized as multilevel and polycentric (van assche et al., 2019) . it is evident that the proposed multienvironmental scanning radically expands the observational capacity required for anticipating the possible shocks. while this may be a valuable contribution to the literature on the socio-ecological systems, the understanding of these systems may itself be transformed by the multiplication of observational perspectives suggested by a consistent application of the luhmannian insights. furthermore, the luhmannian systems theory may itself benefit from appreciating the way in which the polycontextural diversity of the modern society converges on the twofold understanding of the boundary between the social and the natural. as van assche et al. (2019) , p. 313) explain, "the ecological is the environment of the social in a double sense: internally and externally". the same understanding of the boundary is evidently applicable to the distinction between human organisms and what luhmann took to be psychic systems. there is room to argue that much of this complexity can be illuminated by the proposed multienvironmental scanning, especially given that the coevolution of organisms and psychic systems may itself be a reflection of the much more encompassing process of co-evolution of systems and environments constituting the regime of polycontexturality. finally, the diverse observational perspectives generate further insights going beyond risks and entrepreneurial opportunities. paradoxically as it sounds, these insights bring to the fore new solutions and new resources that have been invisible from the traditional or dominant perspectives. if contemporary societies are responsible for what we commonly refer to as ecological problems, then the solutions to these problems might require not ever-bigger natural-scientific efforts (shah, 2020) , but rather a shift of perspective to the environments of social sciences and a corresponding multienvironmental scanning that dislodges the problems while foregrounding the above opportunities that have not been clear before. the authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. a quantitative approach for assessing sustainability performance of corporations methods of defining 'sustainability fatal attraction: the intuitive appeal of gmo opposition the economics of the coming spaceship earth ecodynamics: a new theory of societal evolution the autopoiesis of social systems and its criticisms what is ecological economics? 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the contribution of the german socio-ecological research initiative to sustainability governance 14. human needs, sustainable development, and public policy: learning from kw kapp economic development, environment and society: rediscovering karl william kapp economic development, environment and society: karl william kapp measuring the sustainability performances of the italian regions the tree of knowledge: the biological roots of human understanding 3-d sustainability: an approach for priority setting in situation of conflicting interests towards a sustainable development can social systems be autopoietic? assessing luhmann's social theory three pillars of sustainability: in search of conceptual origins the early history of modern ecological economics heal the world. a solution-focused systems therapy approach to environmental problems multiplying the division of labour: functional differentiation of the next key variables in management research csr beyond economy and society: a post-capitalist approach dissecting the empirical-normative divide in business ethics a quest for the economics of sustainability and the sustainability of economics social ecological economics: understanding the past to see the future new foundations for ecological economics the complexity-sustainability trade-off in niklas luhmann's social systems theory kapp's theory of social costs: a luhmannian interpretation the anti-gmo advocacy: an institutionalist and systems-theoretic assessment stakeholder theory: a luhmannian perspective the social, the ecological, and the adaptive. von bertalanffy's general systems theory and the adaptive governance of social-ecological systems towards a power-sensitive and socially-informed analysis of payments for ecosystem services (pes): addressing the gaps in the current debate assessing sustainability performance of farms: an efficiency approach mechanism and biological explanation institutions for sustainability-towards an expanded research program for ecological economics ethics and second-order cybernetics from nonprofit diversity to organizational multifunctionality: a systems-theoretical proposal he holds a habilitation in economic and environmental sociology awarded by the italian ministry of education, university, and research; a phd in sociology from the university of geneva; and a phd in management from the chemnitz university of technology. he is the field editor for social systems theory of systems research and behavioral science. the journals his research has been published in include germany, and senior researcher at the leibniz institute of agricultural development in transition economies in halle, germany. he has served on the editorial boards of several journals, such as the journal of economic issues, voluntas, and kybernetes. his research has been published in journals such as nonprofit and voluntary sector quarterly the authors are grateful to the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their close reading of our manuscript and their very helpful comments. key: cord-294877-bbs8a8jz authors: liu, chuanpeng; fan, dongjie; shi, yi; zhou, qiming title: a glimpse of enzymology within the idea of systems date: 2012-09-27 journal: sci china life sci doi: 10.1007/s11427-012-4371-2 sha: doc_id: 294877 cord_uid: bbs8a8jz nan next year will mark the 100th anniversary of the michaelis-menten equation [1] , one of the most important and well known models in enzymology. remarkable progress in enzymology over the past hundred years has not only provided deep insight into biological processes, but also has dramatically changed our lives. however, because of limitations in available techniques, enzymologists primarily investigate the in vitro properties and catalytic mechanisms of individual enzymes. thus, they often fail to address a fundamental scientific question: how are biological processes, most of which are chemical reactions catalyzed by enzymes, coordinated in space and time to produce a living organism [2]? fortunately, applications of new techniques and, in particular, wide acceptance of the idea of systems have enabled enzymologists to begin studying enzymes in the context of dynamic, complicated biological systems in recent years. many excellent reviews and research articles on enzymology have been published in the past few years. these articles highlight the latest developments in enzymology, and should prove helpful for understanding how to best integrate the idea of systems into enzymology research. in living organisms, protein post-translational modification (ptm) pathways are large and interconnected networks. via reversible or irreversible covalent modifications, allo-steric regulations of ptm enzymes and cross-talk of ptm pathways, ptm networks enable organisms to respond to stimuli faster than is possible through gene transcription regulation. therefore, ptm enzymes, as key nodes of biological networks, are a recent focus of attention. phosphorylation is often argued to be the most abundant ptm, and also is the most extensively studied because of the essential contribution of phosphorylation-dependent interaction networks to cellular regulation [3] . in the review by han et al. [4] , a novel receptor-like kinase subfamily in angiosperm, crrlk1-l subfamily, was described in detail. after discussing the structure, enzymological properties and biological function of crrlk1-l, the authors argued that crrlk1-l could initiate signal transduction largely independent of the known signaling pathways. however, a better understanding of its allosteric regulation and substrate specificity are still necessary for defining the pathways that it may modulate. unlike crrlk1-l, calcineurin is an extensively studied serine-threonine protein phosphatase because it plays a pivotal role in a wide series of crucial physiological processes. tu et al. [5] reviewed the recent literature on a new family of calcineurin regulators (rcans), and discussed the molecular mechanism for rcan-mediated regulation of calcineurin. after exemplifying the roles of rcans in a wide variety of diseases including alzheimer's disease, the authors suggested that rcans are potential targets for drug development. similar to rcans, glycogen synthase kinase-3 (gsk-3) is also involved in alzheimer's disease, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. recently, a research article by ding et al. [6] provided a clue to this question. in their article, one member of sr protein family, 9g8, was identified as a new substrate protein of gsk-3. hence, the authors suggested that gsk-3 could inhibit 9g8-mediated alternative splicing of tau exon 10 by phosphorylating 9g8, consequently inhibiting the aggregation of tau exon 10. ubiquitination is another common ptm. by attachment of ubiquitin to the protein as a monomer or as polyubiquitin chains with different ubiquitin-ubiquitin linkages, the function and fate of the modified substrate can be drastically changed. ubiquitination is a reversible process regulated by a subtle balance of ubiquitin-modifying enzymes and deubiquitinating enzymes. two reviews and one research article were recently published, both the review by xie et al. [7] and the research article by sun et al. [8] focused on the deubiquitinating enzymes. xie et al. provided an overview of the recent advances in structural and functional studies of ubiquitin c-terminal hydrolase l1 (uch-l1), with a special emphasis on the protective effects of uch-l1 on neurons. sun and coworkers focused on nsp3, a newly-identified deubiquitinase from human coronavirus nl63. nsp3 has two papain-like protease (plp) core domains, and has both protease and deubiquitinase activities. by in vitro and in vivo methods, the authors demonstrated that the deubiquitinase site was located in the second plp domain and shared two catalytic residues with the protease site. furthermore, the authors found the deubiquitinase activity of nsp3 could induce the deubiquitination of rig-i and eris and then regulate antiviral innate immune responses by inhibition of both rig-i and tlr3-dependent induction of interferon. although ubiquitination in eukaryotic systems has been studied for decades, the prokaryotic analog of ubiquitin, ubiquitin-like protein (pup) was not identified until 2008. wang et al. [9] reviewed the latest advances in research of the pup-proteasome system and comprehensively discussed its catalytic and regulatory mechanism. the authors suggested that the pup-proteasome system could be regarded as a potential therapeutic target because of its extensive involvement in many important physiological pathways of pathogenic bacteria. acetylation and methylation of histones play fundamental roles in gene expression following environmental stimuli. while acetylation of histones converts chromatin from a closed to an open conformation that facilitates transcription, histone methylation can keep chromatin in either an activated or a repressed state, depending on the precise methylation site and the degree of modification. interestingly, the intense cross-talk between histone modifications drives distinct downstream functions. two recent reviews summarize the latest advances of research into two histone modifying enzymes. in the review by guo [10] , the structure and function of a new histone trimethylase, prdm9 (pr domain containing 9) are described. prdm9 catalyzes the h3k4 trimethylation, and possesses the activity of a transcription factor and presumably plays an important role in the initiation of recombination. this review strengthens our understanding of species evolution and genetic recombination. peng et al. [11] introduced the latest advances of research into sirtuin proteins. sirtuins are a highly conserved family of nad + -dependent deacetylase enzymes and are involved in many important biological processes, including cellular stress resistance, genomic stability, tumorigenesis and energy metabolism. in this review, the authors emphasized the structure and catalytic mechanism of sirtuins and discussed the relationship between sirtuins and aging. oxidation of side groups is a very important ptm for cellular proteins. although cys and met are the residues prone to oxidative modification, other residues also can be oxidized under more stringent conditions. for example, the ε-amino group of lysine may be oxidized to an aldehyde by lysyl oxidases (loxs). loxs are a family of multi-functional enzymes, and play an essential role in cell proliferation, cell chemotactic responses and tumor genesis. in their review, zhang et al. [12] summarized the latest knowledge of loxs, including their potential as targets for diagnosis and therapy of several human diseases such as connective tissue disease, exfoliation syndrome, disorders of copper metabolism, pelvic organ prolapse, and bone disorders. proteolysis is another one of the most common ptms. proteolysis needs to be very precisely controlled on multiple levels because of its irreversible nature. therefore, enzymes involved in proteolysis are regarded as key nodes in the living system, and have received increasing attention over the past decade. in eukaryotic cells, proteasome-dependent degradation is the general mode of selective protein degradation. while the ubiquitin-dependent proteasomal degradation pathway has been well studied, little attention has been directed toward the possible involvement of the proteasome in ubiquitin-independent proteolysis. however, increasing evidence shows that the ubiquitin-independent proteasomal proteolysis pathway is involved in the elimination of some short-lived regulated proteins, misfolded proteins, aged proteins and oxidized proteins as well as providing "quality control" of newly synthesized proteins. thus, it plays important roles in pathological processes such as cancer and neurodegenerative diseases. recent progress in understanding ubiquitin-independent proteasomal degradation and the underlying molecular mechanisms were discussed by chen et al. [13] . besides the proteasome, proteases also catalyze protein proteolysis. in a review by wu et al. [14] , a newlyidentified protease, tmprss6, was described. tmprss6 is a transmembrane serine protease which can regulate the expression of hepcidin, thereby affecting iron metabolism. in this review, the authors discussed the relationship between the structure and function of tmprss6, and the roles of tmprss6 in iron metabolism-related diseases. because proteases are involved in many diseases [15] , protease inhibitors have been of great interest for the development of novel therapies. in a recent research article, tian and coworkers [16] investigated the protease inhibitory activity and antineoplastic effect of buckwheat trypsin inhibitor (bti). the authors not only identified the active site of bti, but also obtained two bti mutants which showed much better stability to heat and ph than wild-type bti. their results will contribute to clarifying the physiological mechanism of bti and support the development of novel anticancer drugs. many biologists are now using "omics" tools to investigate organisms and construct various interaction networks. however, because biological systems are essentially built of highly coordinated sets of interaction networks across different scales, integration of the networks from the various 'omics' tools is a core paradigm for deep comprehension and ultimately reconstruction of these living systems. while ptm enzymes act as key nodes in protein-protein interaction networks as discussed above, the enzymes whose substrates are something other than proteins, can bridge protein networks and other networks together. therefore, the enzymes acting on non-protein substrates are of increasing interest in the systems biology era. glutamate synthase, lactate dehydrogenase (ldh) and dihydrofolate reductase (dhfr) are three important metabolism enzymes, and play key roles in metabolomics and proteomics data integration. although these enzymes had been extensively studied, the results presented in three recently published articles indicate that their biological functions are still to be clarified. in an article by lu et al. [17] , the authors investigated the roles of glutamate synthase in carbon and nitrogen metabolism of rice, and concluded that glutamate synthase was indispensable for efficient nitrogen assimilation in rice. meanwhile, new physiological functions of dhfr and ldh were discussed. while sun and coworkers [18] found dhfr was essential for the development of pharyngeal arches, li and coworkers [19] suggested that the reduction or loss of ldh-c4 activity in sperm might cause male infertility. these results indicate that our knowledge of "old" enzymes is not complete. based on the accumulated experiment data on metabolism enzymes, a general relationship between genomics, proteomics and metabolomics of microbes was discussed recently [20, 21] . phase ii drug/xenobiotic metabolizing enzymes, together with phase i enzymes, play a central role in the metabolism and detoxification of numerous exogenous and endogenous compounds. therefore, the characterization of xenobiotic metabolizing enzymes not only contributes to the understanding of the context of biological networks within organisms, but also is indispensable to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of the interplay between organisms and the environment. of particular importance is to establish the correlation between the genetic polymorphisms of xenobiotic metabolizing enzymes and interindividual variations in drug metabolism [22] . hao et al. [23] investigated the po-tential effect of all the known nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (nssnps) of human phase ii metabolizing enzyme on protein function, and identified many residues that are likely to be functionally critical, but have not yet been studied experimentally. their results contribute to integrating polymorphisms into a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (pbpk) modeling framework. since dna is the carrier of genetic information, the maintenance of dna stability is essential in living cells. in two recent research articles, the inhibitory mechanisms of helicase and integrase were discussed. luo and coworkers [24] extensively investigated the effect of lomefloxacin on bloom syndrome helicase (blm). blm is an important member of the recq family of dna helicases and plays important roles in dna repair, recombination, transcription and telomere maintenance. the authors found that lomefloxacin could promote the binding of blm to dna, but would unexpectedly inhibit the helicase and atpase activities of blm. subsequently, the authors proposed a possible mechanism based on their kinetics and thermodynamics results which should prove useful for the design of inhibitors against dna helicase and improve our understanding of the mechanism of action of quinolone drugs. while luo et al. used in vitro methods to study blm, hu and coworkers [25] investigated the inhibitory mechanism of compound l708, 906 towards hiv-1 integrase by using in silico methods. they found the binding of l708, 906 to hiv-1 integrase could alter the mobility of the protein, and thereby result in the decrease of integrase activity. their results should be helpful for anti-hiv drug design. however, in silico results ultimately have to be supported by "real" experimental data. high-throughput screening assays with adequate sensitivity, reproducibility, and accuracy have been indispensable for the discovery of drugs targeting hiv-1 integrase. in a recent research article, he and coworkers [26] developed a novel method for measuring the disintegration activity of hiv-1 integrase. this method is rapid, sensitive and, most importantly, readily adapted to a high-throughput format, and hence is likely to be applicable to antiviral drug screening. as many chemical and physical factors can cause dna changes, multiple mechanisms have evolved to deal with dna lesions in living cells. translesion synthesis is a special pathway that enables the replication fork to bypass blocking lesions. as a key member of the translesion dna synthesis pathway, dna synthesis polymerase kappa (polκ) has received much attention. in a recent review, lu et al. [27] comprehensively described the structure, catalytic mechanism and biological function of polκ, which contributes to our understanding of translesion dna synthesis. homologous recombination repair is another powerful dna repair system. although homologous recombination has been studied for decades, the underlying mechanism is not yet clear. since the resolution of holliday-junction recombination intermediates is the critical step for homolo-gous recombination, unraveling the catalytic mechanism of resolvase will contribute to our understanding of homologous recombination. the resolvase from bacteriophage, t7 endonuclease i, is one of the most studied resolvases, and possesses resolvase, nicking enzyme and endonuclease activities. t7 endonuclease i is a homodimer comprising two identical active domains, each of which consists of parts of both subunits in the dimer. however, the function of each active domain is unclear. in a recent research article, fan and coworkers [28] prepared and characterized a t7 endonuclease i mutant with only a single active domain. their results showed that the t7 endonuclease i mutant with a single active domain could recognize the holliday-junction structure but failed to introduce two nicked sites simultaneously. taken together, this information is helpful for elucidating the catalytic mechanism of resolvase. while many biologists focus on biological networks in cells, tissues and organisms, environmental enzymologists are striving to explore the dynamic nature of ecosystems at the molecular level. the application of meta-omics and enzymology technologies has rapidly increased our knowledge of the global biogeochemical cycles of inorganic and organic compounds, organism-environment and organismorganism interactions. the convergence between enzymology and the ecology of the nitrogen cycle was discussed in recent reviews [29, 30] . zhang et al. [31] investigated the phosphorus uptake of brassica napus under low phosphorus stress using enzymological methods, and proposed an acid phosphatase-centric regulatory mechanism of phosphorus uptake. their results increase our understanding of the mechanisms of the phosphorus cycle. with increasing use of transgenic crops, more scientists are concerned about the environmental impact of transgenic organisms. in a recent research article, guo and coworkers [32] examined the influence of transgenic bt cotton on beet armyworm, which is not an insect which targets currently commercialized transgenic bt cotton varieties in china. their results show that feeding beet armyworm with bt cotton can cause significant changes of many important enzyme activities in the worm making it necessary to evaluate the environmental impact of bt cotton. while molecular level research on biological systems has evolved from investigating individual enzymes or pathways to studies on biological networks and even ecological networks, a new challenge for biologists is to add a dynamic property to the constructed networks. one strategy is to create an animation to display the dynamic change of biological networks using a series of snapshots of the biological networks captured by high-throughput methods at different points in time. however, because of technical limitations, it is impossible to capture the snapshots at a rate faster than the biochemical reactions, indicating that the "dynamic change of networks" provided by this strategy is actually discontinuous in time, and the biochemical events occurring between any two adjacent snapshots are missed. a better strategy is to incorporate biochemical reaction parameters into biological networks, by which biologists can construct the dynamic biological networks with more "living" properties. therefore, enzymological studies are crucial not only for the construction of biological networks as discussed above, but also for the elucidation of the dynamical properties of biological systems. although enzyme catalysis has been extensively studied, most of this knowledge comes from in vitro experiments under conditions in which substrate and product concentrations, mass transfer and diffusion are radically different from the living system. in addition, while canonical kinetic methods provide only ensemble-averaged molecular information, the conformational heterogeneity of an enzyme cannot be ignored in living cells because of the low abundance of enzymes, macromolecular crowding and confinement. therefore, characterization of enzymes in the context of a biological system is the prerequisite for understanding its dynamic properties. fortunately, thanks to the close collaboration of scientists and engineers from various disciplines, many novel techniques have recently been developed and applied to the investigation of the in vivo behavior of enzymes. for example, mass spectrometry based enzymatic assay techniques have been applied to inhibitor screening in vivo, identification of endogenous substrates, and in vivo enzymatic activities of orphan proteins [33] . light and fluorescence microscopy techniques are being used in measuring enzyme activity in single cells in a real-time manner [34, 35] . in particular, the development of single molecule detection techniques has made it possible to characterize enzyme catalysis at the single molecule level [3639] . mathematical modeling and model-based data analysis are indispensable for understanding the behavior of biological systems [40, 41] . xu and coworkers [42] proposed a generic rate equation for the dynamical modeling of metabolic kinetics, in which kinetic parameters are clear and precise enough to correlate to experimental data for purposes of constructing a database. the equation is applicable to an arbitrary number of substrates and products for computation of dynamic modeling, which makes the construction of omics scale networks using kinetic models much more feasible. because enzymes are the central components of biological networks, any change related to an enzyme, even a slight fluctuation in enzyme content or activity, will lead to local or global alteration of biological networks. for example, cd38 is an adp-ribosyl cyclase responsible for synthesizing cadpr and naadp. through these two secondary messengers, cd38 can regulate insulin secretion, susceptibility to bacterial infection, and even social behavior of mice (see the review by lee [43] ). therefore, enzymes can be used as markers to characterize the status of biological systems and trace the dynamic changes of biological networks. identification of highly specific and sensitive enzyme markers from biological networks for various purpos-es has been a major task for enzymologists. schizophrenia is a common and severe neuropsychiatric disorder. although many scientists believe that increased oxidative stress is relevant to the pathophysiology of schizophrenia, it is still debated whether oxidoreductases could be used as biomarkers for diagnosis and treatment of this disease [44] . in a recent research article, zhang and coworkers [45] performed a meta-analysis of data from early studies related to oxidative stress in schizophrenia, and found that superoxide dismutase (sod) activity significantly decreased in the disorganized type of schizophrenia patients, indicating that sod may be a potential biomarker of schizophrenia. their results provide an exciting opportunity for diagnosis and treatment of schizophrenia. thanks to intensive research efforts from an increasing number of laboratories, detailed information regarding the physics, chemistry and kinetics of enzymes is accumulating rapidly. however, theoretical developments in this area have lagged behind experimental data. significant evidence shows that in some cases, the observed behaviors of enzymes are incompatible with the classical theories of enzymatic catalysis. for example, when biologists began to study the dynamic properties of biological networks, the possible role of protein motion in enzyme catalysis was still controversial [46, 47] . therefore, elucidating the mechanisms of enzymatic catalysis remains one of the most intriguing biochemical phenomena. zhang and coworkers [48] investigated the effect of substrate-induced conformation changes on enzyme catalysis, and found that the activity and conformation of an enzyme is changed when the enzyme induced with one substrate was reacted with other substrates in subsequent reactions. based on their results, the authors ingeniously brought the two classical catalysis models, "induced fit" and "lock and key" together, and proposed a new model called "induced fit-lock and key" for enzyme action, potentially deepening our understanding of enzyme catalysis. one of the major goals of enzymology is to develop efficient biocatalytic systems for industrial, medical or environmental applications. along with the rapidly growing understanding of enzyme action in the context of biological systems, our capacity to design biocatalytic systems is growing at an unprecedented pace. while the early studies of biocatalysis were restricted to "one-step" biotransformations or optimization of an organism's own metabolic pathways, we are now able to engineer entire foreign biosynthetic pathways into host organisms to make non-native natural or even unnatural products [49, 50] . however, biocatalysis still has many challenges that need to be addressed, most of which are around enzyme discovery, design, and optimization. for example, how can we find or create enzymes that catalyze the desired chemical reaction of interest, even those not existing in nature? how can we create multiple-enzyme biocatalytic systems required for multistep biosynthesis of complex natural and unnatural products? how can we effectively integrate non-native pathways into the metabolism of a host? how can we improve the stress tolerance of biocatalytic systems to industrial reaction conditions? the following papers will be helpful for biologists to answer these questions. the identification and isolation of novel enzymes is an extremely active field in enzymology. there are two general experimental strategies for enzyme discovery, which are based on function (activity) or sequence, respectively. the function-based strategy is a straightforward way to obtain enzymes which have desired functions. for example, using molecular probes that bind to enzymes of interest in an activity-dependent manner, enzymologists not only can quantify the dynamics of an enzyme in vivo, but also can directly isolate and identify the enzyme with the desired function from cell or tissue samples [51] . this technique, termed activity-based protein profiling (abpp), is being widely applied to the discovery of novel enzymes and drugs [52, 53] . compared with the function-based strategy, the sequencebased strategy is readily performed using bioinformatics and pcr approaches, and is widely used in many laboratories. using the sequence-based strategy, sun and liu [54] successfully isolated a new carboxylesterase gene from geobacillus stearothermophilus. because of the fact that the enzyme exhibited a high thermal stability and broad ph tolerance, the authors suggested that this carboxylesterase had potential applications in the synthesis of stereospecific compounds and degradation of environmental contaminants. although these two experimental strategies have been very successful in enzyme discovery, biological experimentation alone is clearly inadequate to meet the challenge presented by the exponentially increasing number of unknown sequences. to address this challenge, a large-scale collaborative project, the enzyme function initiative (efi), was established in 2010. the efi is developing a computation-based multidisciplinary strategy for functional assignment of unknown enzymes in a high throughput manner [55] . while more and more novel enzymes are identified from diverse organisms, especially those in extreme environments, a new challenge for applied enzymologists is how to assign each enzyme to the job that suits it best. for example, early studies showed that the (r)-oxynitrilase from prunus salicina was one of the poorest oxynitrilases for the synthesis of (r)-cyanohydrins from hydrogen cyanide with aldehydes, and thereby not suitable for industrial applications. however, in a recent research article, liu and zong [56] reported that plum (r)-oxynitrilase could efficiently catalyze enantioselective transcyanation of acetyltrimethylsilane with acetone cyanohydrin, and both acetyltrimethylsilane conversion and enantiomeric excess of the product were above 99%. this finding implies that identifying new catalytic functions of known enzymes is an efficient way to increase the potential applications of enzymes in biotechnology. although enzymes are usually regarded as specific catalysts of biochemical reactions, the promiscuity of some enzymes is a common phenomenon, and the structural, mechanistic, and evolutionary implications of this were discussed in a recent review [57] . considering the fact that industrial reaction conditions are different from physiological conditions, the secondary capabilities of some enzymes may make them more suitable for industrial applications in certain cases. the interest in utilizing enzymes in industrial processes is constantly growing during the past several decades. however, natural enzymes are usually not optimally suited for industrial applications because they have evolved to work in the mild cellular environment rather than under harsh process conditions. fortunately, many strategies have been developed to overcome this problem, the most popular ones of which are directed evolution, rational design, chemical modification and immobilization. using these approaches, many biocatalysts with excellent properties were developed and used in various applications. for example, wu and coworkers [58] developed a novel capillary trypsin reactor by organic-inorganic hybrid monolith based immobilization. this trypsin reactor not only has high enzymatic activity, but also shows reliable mechanical stability and permeability. this reactor is promising for the development of an automated online digestion device for use in proteomics. the recent advances, new challenges and future trends of directed evolution, rational design, chemical modification and immobilization are comprehensively discussed in a number of reviews [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] . one of the major technological hurdles in enzymology research is how to control the expression of the enzyme of interest at the desired level. although many biologists hope to maximize the expression yield, some enzymologists who engage in metabolic engineering and synthetic biology are facing a greater challenge: how to optimize the absolute and relative levels of the enzyme components of the designed biosynthetic pathway, and how to balance the activities of endogenous and exogenous enzymes. for example, to make a taxol precursor in escherichia coli, the expression level of more than 30 endogenous and exogenous enzymes were optimized [64] . therefore, the development of novel expression strategies has an important impact on enzymological research. two recent research articles introduced two new enzyme expression strategies. a functional fragment of coagulation factor viii (bdd-fviii) has potential for use in the therapy of hemophilia a. however, because of its large size, it is difficult to deliver the bdd-fviii gene into cells by a single adeno-associated virus (aav) vector, slowing the development of gene therapy for hemophilia a. zhu and coworkers [65] presented a protein trans-splicing based dual-vector delivery system which is suitable for the expression of larger proteins in mammalian cells. using this delivery system, bdd-fviii was successfully expressed in hek-293 and cos-7 cells. these results not only pave the way for the development of gene therapy for hemophilia a, but also offer a new strategy for the expression of large for-eign proteins. wang et al. [66] inserted h. polymorphaderived ribosomal dna (rdna)-targeting element into a ppic9k-derived expression vector containing the pgap promoter, and developed a high-efficiency h. polymorpha expression system, by which the yield of recombinant t4 lysozyme was up to 0.5 g l 1 . besides describing a highefficiency expression system for production of heterologous protein, their results also provide a strategy for the construction of a high-efficiency expression system. beyond the studies of "one-step" biotransformations, the exploration and development of multiple-enzyme biocatalytic systems is of great interest and is an important challenge to scientists. in past years, researchers have successfully engineered and constructed many important multiple-enzyme biocatalytic systems in vivo and in vitro [67, 68] , some of which are even composed of tens of enzyme components. for example, cellulosome is a multi-enzyme complex from anaerobic microorganisms which consists of a large number of enzymatic components arranged around non-enzymatic scaffolding proteins. because of its potential biotechnological applications in the conversion of intractable cellulosic biomass into sugars, cellulosome is of wide interest in enzymology and biotechnology. in a recent review, wang et al. 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expression, characterization, and antimicrobial ability of t4 lysozyme from methylotrophic yeast hansenula polymorpha a16 expanding nature's small molecule diversity via in vitro biosynthetic pathway engineering combinatorial biosynthesis of polyketides--a perspective research advances on the assembly mode of cellulosomal macromolecular complexes open access this article is distributed under the terms of the creative commons attribution license which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited key: cord-011871-hlykwius authors: himmler, sebastian; van exel, job; perry-duxbury, meg; brouwer, werner title: willingness to pay for an early warning system for infectious diseases date: 2020-03-16 journal: eur j health econ doi: 10.1007/s10198-020-01171-2 sha: doc_id: 11871 cord_uid: hlykwius early warning systems for infectious diseases and foodborne outbreaks are designed with the aim of increasing the health safety of citizens. as a first step to determine whether investing in such a system offers value for money, this study used contingent valuation to estimate people’s willingness to pay for such an early warning system in six european countries. the contingent valuation experiment was conducted through online questionnaires administered in february to march 2018 to cross-sectional, representative samples in the uk, denmark, germany, hungary, italy, and the netherlands, yielding a total sample size of 3140. mean willingness to pay for an early warning system was €21.80 (median €10.00) per household per month. pooled regression results indicate that willingness to pay increased with household income and risk aversion, while they decreased with age. overall, our results indicate that approximately 80–90% of people would be willing to pay for an increase in health safety in the form of an early warning system for infectious diseases and food-borne outbreaks. however, our results have to be interpreted in light of the usual drawbacks of willingness to pay experiments. electronic supplementary material: the online version of this article (10.1007/s10198-020-01171-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. increasing the health safety of citizens is an important policy goal in countries across the world. recent infectious outbreaks of, for example, ebola, sars, bird flu, and salmonella, emphasise that improving safety cannot always be realised by countries separately [1] . recently, for example, the european union has initiated an interdisciplinary research network that investigates the potential for an international, integrated early warning system for identifying, containing and mitigating large infectious outbreaks more rapidly (http://www.compa re-europ e.eu/). establishing and maintaining such a system would likely entail considerable costs. to determine whether this would be money well spent, it is essential to consider all its potential benefits. the relevant benefits could include a reduction in disease burden, increased feeling of safety, or the mitigation of economic consequences of infectious diseases and food-borne outbreaks, which can be considerable for countries, organisations and individuals. for instance, the economic impact of the ebola crisis in 2014-2015 on sierra leone, guinea and liberia was estimated at $2.8 billion [2] . however, in general, reliable evidence and estimates of these potential benefits of an early warning system, separately or overall, are scarce and difficult to obtain, especially in the case of multinational initiatives. in light of this and the fact that the full potential benefits would include, besides aspects such as health gains, also elements like the improved feeling of health safety, it is not possible to quantify the overall benefits of such an international early warning system based on existing data. therefore, in this study, we aim to provide an indication of the perceived overall value of such a system in terms of improving citizen's feelings of health safety. for that purpose, we first develop a contingent valuation willingnessto-pay approach, which provides such a valuation, given beliefs and sentiments in the population regarding all different aspects of a warning system. second, we apply this approach in six selected countries across europe (i.e., denmark, germany, hungary, italy, the netherlands, and the uk) to derive a range of estimates and assess the potential implications of our results on an international level. this paper summarises our efforts to accomplish these goals and its remainder is divided into four sections. first, we briefly summarise the findings from a previous literature review surrounding the methods that have been applied in similar contexts, namely valuing health safety, to motivate the chosen approach further. after that, we consecutively report on the design and administration of our experiment, the data analysis, present the results of our study, and conclude the paper with a discussion of the limitations and implications of our findings. the introduction of an international integrated warning system to increase health safety would not be necessary if communicable or infectious diseases were not a significant factor in the global burden of disease. the burden of communicable diseases in europe project found an average disease burden in germany alone of 33,116 disability adjusted life years (dalys) per year for influenza and 19,115 dalys per year for salmonella [3] . on a european level, influenza was estimated to be responsible for 81.8 dalys lost per 100,000 population between 2009 and 2013, corresponding to 412,673 dalys using the eu population size from 2011 [4] . considering these substantial effects of infectious diseases, some of the potential benefits of an international integrated warning system become clearer. of course, the real benefits also depend on the translation from warnings to effective interventions that prevent or mitigate the consequences of outbreaks. besides possible health gains resulting from this, there are also less tangible benefits from having a warning system, which include an increase in health safety and feeling more secure. the valuation of these benefits may be less straightforward than calculating potential dalys averted. the valuation of interventions affecting safety is relevant both within and outside the health care setting. for example, environmental and transportation research is concerned with interventions, which aim to improve the safety of recipients. perry-duxbury et al. conducted a literature review in which they examined the methodologies of empirical research valuing safety from all relevant fields, including environment, transportation and health [5] . of the 33 papers reviewed, 22 were found to use the contingent valuation method to value the effects of safety-affecting interventions. the four papers in the field of health that empirically valued interventions increasing health safety, all used a form of stated preference methodology. these papers aimed to estimate the value of reducing mortality risks [6] , preventing child maltreatment deaths [7] , reducing the risk of sexually transmitted diseases [8] and vaccinations in pandemic outbreaks [9] . the first three papers used willingness to pay (wtp) contingent valuation method, while the last paper used a discrete choice experiment to elicit valuations. the literature review identified income to be a significant predictor of wtp in all included contingent valuation studies [10] . a higher level of education was associated with a higher wtp in six of the nine papers that included information on education. age and gender both also had strong correlations with wtp. however, these correlations were positive in some of the studies and negative in others. the literature review also reported results regarding relationships of wtp with risk (perception). for example, individuals that had been directly or indirectly exposed to the outcome of interest reported a higher wtp, as did those who had a higher level of perceived risk, were more knowledgeable or more concerned about the issue, or were more concerned than others about the outcome under study. finally, study design elements were shown to affect wtp estimates. for example, presenting scenarios with higher baseline risk was associated with a higher wtp. in addition, different studies found that presenting higher intervention costs or more information about the intervention in the scenario description also affected the estimated wtp. however, the direction of the effect differed between studies. the information provided by the literature review guided some of the methodological choices of our study, which are described next. to estimate the wtp for an international integrated early warning system for infectious diseases and food-borne outbreaks, we conducted contingent valuation experiments utilising general population samples from six european countries: denmark, germany, hungary, italy, the netherlands, and the uk. sampling and administration of the wtp questionnaire were conducted by a professional sampling agency, from february to march 2018, using an online survey format. the sampling agency recruited participants from existing online panels. the survey was administered to citizens aged between 18 and 65. individuals aged 65 and above were not included for two reasons: first, recruiting elderly respondents from online panels can be challenging in some of the included countries. second, we wanted to limit our population to the (income) taxpayers, as we used a tax increase as payment vehicle in the experiment. the samples were aimed to be representative for national populations regarding age, gender and level of education, with a sample size of around 500 individuals per country. participants were able to complete the questionnaire on a computer or mobile device. they did not receive a personal financial reward for engaging in the experiment but could choose a charity, which would receive a small donation after completing the survey. participants had to consent to their information being used for research purposes and were free to drop out of the experiment at any time. the reasoning behind the country selection was to cover a variety of cultural perspectives relevant to the valuation of safety and public intervention. the latter was assessed by applying the three most relevant dimensions of hofstede's cultural dimensions theory in this context: individualism vs collectivism, masculinity, and uncertainty avoidance [11] . the included countries furthermore constitute a mix of different levels of social and economic development in europe. the questionnaire, which was initially developed in english, was translated into danish, german, hungarian, italian, and dutch by professional translators and checked for comprehensibility and consistency by native speakers. in designing the experiment and payment scales, gbp and eur values were assumed to be equivalent, while monetary values and payment scales were converted from gbp into dkk and huf using the mean exchange rate from february 2018. in the case of hungary, this was additionally adjusted for purchasing power [12] . payment scales were rounded to natural integer values in all survey versions to prevent peculiar payment options. the payment scale of the uk survey and the equivalent monetary values for danish crowns and hungarian forint can be found in online appendix d. before the launch of the main survey, the questionnaire was tested in both a group of experts in infectious diseases and food-borne outbreaks associated with the compare research network (n = 22) and a representative sample of the public in the uk (n = 134) in january 2018. the length of the survey was slightly reduced following the pilot tests. after this stage of piloting, the questionnaire was fielded in a representative sample of uk citizens (n = 533). to test the payment scale used in the experiment, we administered two additional surveys (n = 500 each): one with smaller payment options, and the other asking for yearly contributions instead of monthly contributions. the validity of the results of the three survey versions was assessed based on whether wtp was influenced by income and based on a comparison to a reference point (home contents insurance 1 ), which was included in the surveys. the initial payment scale performed best and was therefore used in all surveyed countries. the general design of the wtp experiment followed the structure of an existing survey, which was purposely designed to elicit the wtp for a quality-adjusted life year (qaly) [13] . after a brief introduction to the topic at hand and the purpose and design of the questionnaire (see online appendix a), respondents had to state their age and gender before describing their current health using a generic health instrument (eq-5d-5l). the following part of the questionnaire started with a "warm-up" wtp exercise, where participants had to state their wtp for a pair of shoes. this elicitation task was included to familiarise respondents with the procedure and to test whether the chosen approach resulted in reasonable estimates for a common market good. next, respondents started with the central wtp task: valuing the early warning system. a two-stage procedure consisting of a two-step payment scale approach and an open-ended question was applied to elicit individuals' wtp. the motivation for this approach has been outlined elsewhere [13] [14] [15] . in summary, it intends to provide precise and direct maximum wtp valuations, using a stepwise procedure that helps respondents to form and articulate their preferences. the scenario outlined to respondents was that establishing and maintaining an international integrated warning system, which could contain and mitigate infectious disease and food-borne outbreaks, naming ebola, sars, bird flu and salmonella as examples, is not without costs. participants then were asked to imagine that the funding of such an international warning system would take place through national taxation in the participating countries. all eligible people in their country (aged 18 and above) would have to contribute via monthly instalments starting immediately. the payment was framed as a recurrent tax since most respondents in european countries are likely familiar with similar forms of payments. this scenario did not include information on the magnitude of the potential health benefits. the reasoning behind that was to emphasise the perceived feelings of health safety due to such a system in the elicitation rather than a particular hypothetical gain in health, also because the potential benefits are uncertain at this stage. this could provide a broad valuation based on the beliefs and attitudes of the respondents themselves. information on the types of local systems already in place and how these would be integrated into this international system was also omitted. not only would this be cognitively burdening, the chosen approach also conformed more closely to the general definition of the compare project and hence warning system at this stage. while this leaves respondents with imperfect information, this was intentional, as our goal was to value a warning system which features are not yet fully clear, in terms of the incremental feelings of health safety that comes with it. in the first step of the initial stage of the willingnessto-pay experiment, respondents were asked to indicate the amounts they would definitely be willing to pay per month for having this international, integrated warning system, using a payment scale ordered from low to high gbp or eur values (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 100, 120, 150, 200, more). the payment scale for the uk contained the same values in gbp, the version for denmark contained the same values converted to dkk (and rounded), and the version of hungary was adjusted for purchasing power and converted to huf (and rounded). the hungarian and the danish scale are included in appendix d. individuals who chose the "more" option on the payment scale subsequently had to indicate a value higher than 200 in an open-ended question. individuals who chose 0 as their maximum wtp had to select one of the following options to specify the reason for this answer, with the following predefined options: (i) not worth more than 0, (ii) unable to pay more than 0, (iii) government task, or (iv) the option to formulate another reason in an open text field. the former two options were considered to indicate a true wtp of zero, while "government task" was designated as a protest zero. entries in the open text field were evaluated and labelled as either true zero or protest zero. individuals who chose a value between 1 and 200 were subsequently asked to mark the amounts they would definitely not be willing to pay per month on the same payment scale, excluding the wtp values they had selected in the preceding step. jointly, these two steps generated a wtp interval between the highest amount that a respondent definitely was willing to pay and the lowest amount he or she was definitely not willing to pay. in the second stage of the wtp procedure, respondents had to indicate an exact amount within this interval that was closest to the maximum that they would be willing to pay per month. respondents could specify decimals in this second stage, not limiting the wtp to integer values. the elicited wtp amounts in the second step were taken as the best approximation of people's wtp for the (health safety benefits from an) international integrated early warning system for infectious diseases. throughout the two steps, participants were reminded to keep their ability to pay in mind (their net monthly household income) before indicating any interval or specific value to prevent ex-ante mitigation [16] . the design and the exact wording of the wtp questions can be found in appendix c. the questionnaire continued with two additional wtp valuation scenarios involving different degrees of risk reduction and disease severity, which will not be discussed in this paper. subsequently, respondents had to provide further sociodemographic information. estimates for household income were obtained in a two-step process. respondents first selected an income range before indicating an exact amount. missing exact income amounts were imputed based on the sample means of the income interval selected in the first step, if applicable. respondents were furthermore asked about whether they or their family had ever been exposed to an emerging infectious disease or outbreak (yes/no), and about their general awareness related to emerging infectious diseases and foodborne outbreaks, which was queried using 12 statements and a 7-point likert scale. the statements comprised of a collection of aspects found to be relevant in this context based on the findings from the literature review (see online appendix b). finally, respondents completed a brief version of the health-risk attitude scale (hras) [17] , which consists of six statements about resolving risky health decisions that need to be ranked on a 7-point likert scale ranging from "totally disagree" to "totally agree". the survey ended with a module asking respondents whether they had home contents insurance, the size of the corresponding yearly premiums and how they would value the described early warning system in comparison to their contents insurance (lower, roughly the same or higher). these results of this final module were intended to serve two purposes: first, they were used to test different types of payment scales before the rollout of the main survey. second, comparing the contents insurance premiums people actually pay and the stated relative value of early warning system and contents insurance serves as a validity check of the stated wtp values. in addition to the survey data, we collected country aggregate estimates on the relevant dimensions of hofstede's cultural dimension theory (masculinity, individualism, and uncertainty avoidance) and the level of trust in public institutions [18] . before analysing the data, we converted all monetary values from danish, uk, and hungarian respondents to euro values using the average exchange rates during the month of sampling (7.45 dkk/€, 1.14 £/€, 312 huf/€). in the next step, cross-country data validity and comparability were assessed by exploratory, descriptive analysis. we first inspected the proportions of and reasons for zero wtp answers, distinguishing between true and protest zeros. we excluded protest zeros and wtp outliers from the remainder of the analysis. the latter was defined as wtp values larger than 5% of monthly household income. descriptive statistics were calculated based on the remaining wtp valuations. linear regression analysis was conducted on the wtp valuations from all six countries to examine which factors influenced the wtp answers and whether the observed effects were in line with theoretical considerations as well as previous empirical findings of wtp determinants (see section "background"). the regression analysis thus functions as a validity check for our experimental design and wtp results. we also explored the suitability of tobit or two-part-models for the regression analysis, however using root mean squared error and mean absolute error as performance criteria revealed that standard linear regression provided the best model fit. calculations were conducted using the pooled total sample, as well as the separate country-level samples. descriptive analysis and regression analyses were performed using stata 15 the total number of completed surveys from the six chosen european countries was 3140. unfortunately, information on the response rate or the share of respondents starting, but not finishing the survey could not be obtained from the sampling agency. on average, it took respondents 18.9 min (sd 11.2) to complete the questionnaire. the six samples were well balanced regarding age, gender and education in their respective countries for the aimed subset of individuals aged between 18 and 65. descriptive statistics of the respondents per country are shown in table 1 . the average gross monthly household income ranged from €1214 in hungary to €6417 in denmark. employment status and educational attainment varied between countries, as to be expected. the sub-samples also differed considerably in the rate of past exposure to infectious diseases and food-borne outbreaks (10% in the uk vs 62% in hungary). overall, 14.8% of respondents stated a wtp of zero, with a share of 7.3% in italy at the lower end and 23.2% in hungary at the upper end. of those with a wtp of zero, most respondents chose the pre-specified option "government task" (57.3%) and only to a lesser extent the options "not worth it" (17.2%) and "unable to pay" (15.3%) to justify a wtp of zero, with considerable differences between countries. of the 47 qualitative responses in the category "other", 40 were classified to be similar to "government task" or as protest answers. the remaining seven qualitative responses were more related to whether the system would be worth installing. these, therefore, were included in the "not worth it" category, which, together with "unable to pay" category, represent true zeros. the entirety of "government task" and further protest answers (n = 306) was treated as protest zeros and, therefore, not included in the following wtp estimates and regression analysis. table 2 presents the share of zero values per country as well as the indicated reasons for the zero valuations. the share of protest zeros among zeros varied between 53.5% in the uk and 78.6% in hungary. individuals who provided protest answers had a significantly lower income (p = 0.010), higher age (p < 0.001), lower level of education (p = 0.046) and only little awareness of outbreaks (p < 0.001) in comparison to respondents with non-protest answers. turning to the actual wtp estimates, the elicited values for the lower interval of the first stage of the wtp exercise ("definitely be willing to pay") had a mean of €14.68 (sd 23.65). the corresponding mean for the upper interval ("definitely not willing to pay") was €42.63 (sd 67.15). the second stage produced a mean stated wtp for an international integrated early warning system for infectious diseases and food-borne outbreaks of €25.17 (median €10.07) per month per household. the standard deviation of €42.87 exemplifies a considerable heterogeneity in wtp within and across countries. several outliers with values up to €1000 per month influence the mean wtp. the proportion of respondents with a wtp above €100 in the analysed sample was 5.0% and ranged from 0.7% in hungary to 8.8% in italy. some of these outliers might represent the real wtp of respondents, while others may be deliberate or incidental overstatements. applying the above-described criterion, 4.8% of responses qualified as outliers (n = 121) and were excluded from the remainder of the analysis. doing so reduced the mean monthly wtp from €25.17 to €21.80 in the remaining sample of 2713 observations. table 3 presents the corresponding values and further summary statistics, while. figure 1 presents the distributions of all wtp values on country level. for readability, values over €100 (4% of the total sample) are trimmed off. the mean monthly wtp varied from €8.89 in hungary and €28.33 in denmark. results from the included reference point, home contents insurance, revealed that for 51.1% of insurance holders (68.9% had this type of insurance) the perceived value of the warning system was more or less equal to the value of the contents insurance. in the subgroup that provided information on their monthly premiums, the mean difference between wtp and stated insurance premium was €5.28 (50.7% within a €10 range). a higher perceived value of the warning system (24.7%) coincided with a wtp, which was larger than the insurance premium in 56.6% of cases. a lower perceived value (24.3%) fell in line with a relatively lower wtp in 56.5% of cases. table 4 column one lists the results of regressing the wtp values on multiple individual characteristics using the pooled data from all six countries, excluding protest answers and outliers. to account for the correlation of errors within countries, we used cluster-robust standard errors on country level in the regression models. the number of observations dropped from 2713 to 2583, as some respondents did not provide any information on their household income. as the wtp data were skewed, we also analysed the data using log-transformed wtp values. however, here we present the results using the raw wtp values as the general results, and implications of both approaches were highly similar. moreover, the linear specification avoided having to drop zero wtp values and provides a more straightforward interpretation. the log wtp results can be made available upon request. income had a highly significant and positive non-linear effect on the wtp, while age significantly reduced the wtp. education did not affect wtp. the highest levels of awareness of outbreaks and health risk aversion (hras) seemed to influence wtp, although the coefficient of the former was not significant. past exposure, marital status, or not being employed, did not significantly affect wtp. the remaining columns of table 4 present the results on country level. factors affecting wtp differed considerably between countries with some coefficients even switching signs. household income significantly increases wtp in all six countries, whereas age was significantly negatively associated with wtp in three of the countries. consistently positive (but not always significant) coefficients were found for the highest quartiles of outbreak awareness and hras, i.e. being relatively most aware of the associated risks and being relatively most health risk-averse in general. better health was associated with lower wtp throughout all countries. alongside the differences in coefficients, the explanatory power of our model changed substantially between countries. the r 2 varied between 0.117 for the german model and 0.247 for the italian model. differences in model fit as measured by aic/bic and rmse were even more substantial. when including variables in a stepwise procedure, the conclusions for the pooled regression were reasonably stable across model specifications (see online appendix e). adding country dummy variables to the pooled model slightly diminished the effect of income. the respective coefficients of hungary, italy and the netherlands were significant compared to the uk as reference category. this result indicates that even after controlling for socioeconomic characteristics, including income, wtp significantly differed between countries. hofstede's cultural dimensions masculinity, individualism, and uncertainty avoidance, as well as trust in public institution further explained these differences (see online appendix e). to estimate the value of an international integrated early warning system for infectious diseases and food-borne outbreaks aimed at increasing health safety, we developed a two-stage contingent valuation experiment. a survey containing the experiment was administered to balanced samples from denmark, germany, hungary, italy, the netherlands, and the uk. the share of respondents indicating a wtp of zero varied between 7.3% in italy and 23.2% in hungary, of which most were protest zeros. excluding protest answers and outliers (with a wtp exceeding 5% of income), the elicited overall mean monthly wtp per household was €21.80 (median = €10.00). this value ranged from €8.89 (median = €3.85) in hungary to €28.33 (median = €13.42) in denmark. the corresponding standard deviations were standard errors in parentheses; *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01; outliers defined as wtp over 5% of monthly income a sum score rescaled from 0 to 100 substantial, expressing either diverse or ill-formed preferences. differences between countries can partly be explained by the variation in purchasing power, hofstede's cultural dimensions and trust in public institutions. the results, in general, indicate that the majority of respondents see a certain value in the early warning system. regression analyses showed that throughout countries and models, income, as expected, was the most important determinant of the wtp values elicited in our experiment. before discussing the implications of our findings, we must acknowledge several limitations inherent to our analysis and the contingent valuation approach. individual wtp estimates are susceptible to the design and framing of a wtp exercise (see for example [19] ). for instance, by instructing respondents to consider other similar contributions to inform their wtp (see online appendix c), we may have introduced a possible anchor point for some individuals, biasing our results [20] . furthermore, by listing very serious (but low probability) threats like ebola, sars and bird flu in the description of what the system aims to contain and mitigate, respondents may have overestimated the potential health gains of the system. however, as the aim of our analysis was to capture gains in their feelings of safety in the valuation, this is of less concern. a possibly more problematic concern of this type of contingent valuation studies is the respondent's sensitivity to the chosen payment scale [19, 21] . it has also been reported that valuations are relatively insensitive to framing the payment as a monthly or yearly instalment [22] . to reduce the effects of such potential biases in our study, we tested two additional versions of our survey, varying payment scale and frequency of payment, and chose the survey version, which provided the most internally consistent results. the two-stage approach, asking respondents for a value they would definitely pay and a value they would definitely not pay before the actual valuation, also aims to reduce midpoint bias and scale sensitivity. including a "more" option in the payment scale was intended to decrease endpoint bias. a further limitation of wtp studies, in general, is the hypothetical nature of the experiment itself. whether respondents would indeed pay the elicited amounts in real life is questionable. research has shown that hypothetical wtp questions typically lead to an overestimation of actual wtp [23, 24] . a limitation specific to our analysis is that the actual unit of valuation, an international integrated early warning system for infectious diseases and food-borne outbreaks, is also a hypothetical construct, as it is not in existence yet. the survey included a concise description of its general purpose (online appendix a), but we did not provide any more detailed information on the actual functioning and effectiveness of such a system. we also do not know about respondents' expectations concerning potential future (health safety) benefits through such a system. besides these tangible benefits, individuals might also have incorporated potential improvements in the feeling of safety due to the system in their wtp valuation, as well as other benefits. respondents may have unrealistic expectations regarding the potential (health) benefits of the early warning system, leading to distorted wtp valuations. however, as mentioned earlier, individuals make similar decisions without complete knowledge of real risks or benefits when deciding on specific types of insurance coverage. in both cases, they include perceived risks and benefits in their decision-making. one further noteworthy limitation of our study is the exclusion of individuals aged 65 and above. one could argue that the wtp would be higher in the excluded group as they are in general more vulnerable to infectious diseases. we do not find strong evidence for this hypothesis, considering that the coefficients of age-squared are not significant in general and small in size. future studies could investigate this age group further. despite these limitations, there are several aspects, which generate some confidence in the validity of the chosen design and our findings. for instance, the included warm-up exercise eliciting the wtp for the market good shoes provided plausible results, with means ranging between €61.09 in hungary and €138.54 in denmark. these results suggest that the respondents understood the question format and the wtp elicitation exercises and answering formats. results from the survey module about contents insurance furthermore indicate, that the stated wtp, i.e. the perceived value of the system, somewhat corresponded to an actual wtp. this can be inferred from comparing elicited wtp and premiums paid for home contents insurance (as reported by respondents) in relation to respondents' indication of their relative value. for example, respondents who indicated the values of the warning system and home contents insurance to be similar, the mean difference in premiums and estimated wtp was €5.28 with half of the differences lying within an (admittedly arbitrary) €10 range. the results from our regression analysis, moreover, demonstrated that, in general, wtp behaved as expected. wtp increased with income and to some extent with the awareness of outbreaks and risk aversion. the positive effect of the level of trust in public institutions and the significance of the included cultural dimensions were further reassuring findings. considering that most of the mentioned limitations are inherent to willingness-to-pay approaches, one could wonder whether other methodologies, not based on stated preferences, would have been the more appropriate methodological choice. such methods could entail using valuations of statistical life years or monetising the potential health gain using qaly threshold values [25] . however, there are two main reasons, concerning feasibility (mainly due to the limited current knowledge about the warning system) and scope of the analysis, why this is not the case. first, the statistical life year approach requires the availability of certain types of (international) data, which, at this stage of the compare project are not available, yet, if they can be provided at all, or are difficult to obtain in general. using qaly thresholds, on the other hand, requires the availability of threshold values in all countries of interest, while explicit threshold values are only available for the uk and the netherlands. noteworthy in this context is also that some of the estimates of the value of statistical life years and qalys are based on willingness-to-pay studies, which had similar drawbacks as our study. second, and more importantly, applying either of these methodologies would shift the focus exclusively on valuing direct health gains of the warning system. we opted for the current methodology and operationalisation as we intended to also capture the society's valuation of the perceived feeling of safety that comes with the envisaged system. the applied methodology is admittedly not perfect, with results also reflecting beliefs and imperfect information of respondents, which, next to methodological limitations, warrants caution in their interpretation. notwithstanding this, our study provides results, which have implications for policymakers and stakeholders in the context of interventions increasing health safety of the population in european countries. for instance, in a more general sense, our results indicate that most european citizens seem to value an early warning system when using additional taxation as a payment mechanism in an experimental setting. aggregating our wtp estimates to a national or international level can inform discussions about appropriate funding of the warning system, given current knowledge and perceptions of the effectiveness of such a system. while we stress the explorative nature of our study, based on the median wtp estimates from table 3 , the relevant number of households (excluding the share of protesters), and assuming 50% of those households would be eligible to pay the additional tax, an aggregate wtp of €6.5bn for all six included countries per year would be estimated (see online appendix f). considering that health care spending on prevention is rather modest in the included countries (compared to spending on curative care), this may be considered a high amount. while the mentioned limitations related to estimates of individual wtp apply to the aggregate as well, it can help to give such a number a bit more context. a study from the netherlands in 2007 estimated a yearly comprehensive national spending on preventive measures aimed at infectious diseases of €261.46 per capita (inflation-adjusted €333.16 in 2018) [26] . this national spending includes vaccinations but in particular, infrastructure aimed at protection from infectious diseases like waste disposal and clean water technologies. an early warning system could be seen as an add-on to this existing infrastructure. on a per capita level (17.3 m citizens), the aggregated wtp in the netherlands would be €23.71, which corresponds to 7.1% of the previously calculated comprehensive national spending on infectious disease prevention. assuming that the calculated aggregate wtp corresponds to actual yearly costs and that the early warning system would reduce the burden of disease of influenza of 81.8 dalys per 100,000 in the six included european countries by 20%, e.g. through rapid sequencing of new types of influenza and timely vaccinations, the costs per daly averted would amount to €164,190. this ratio does not yet include dalys averted in other infectious diseases or food-borne outbreaks, nor does it account for the economic burden of such outbreaks, which can be considerable [2] , or more intangible benefits like the increased feeling of safety. in terms of the methodology used in this study and the specification of the contingent valuation approach, future research should investigate the use of more precise assumptions about the actual benefits of such a warning system and how this impacts the wtp valuations. as soon as information on the effectiveness of a compare like warning system is available, it could also be of interest to explore the value of the direct health gains, e.g. using a statistical life year approach or different national estimates of the value of health gains. overall, our analysis provided first estimates of the perceived value of this type of early warning system in european countries. while the used approach is clearly not without limitations, the results of our analysis can be relevant to policymakers when discussing investments in health safety on a european level in general, and an early warning system for infectious diseases in particular. however, future research will have to provide further information on what this system would look like, the costs associated with installing and maintaining such a system, and how effective it would be at actually increasing health safety, i.e. reducing the risks of pandemics and outbreaks as well as mitigating their impact, among european citizens. only then, it is possible to assess whether the investment in such a system is money well spent and health and welfare improving. international engagement is critical to fighting epidemics world bank group: 2014-2015 west africa ebola crisis: impact update. world bank fisc rep the disease burden of hepatitis b, influenza, measles and salmonellosis in germany: first results of the burden of communicable diseases in europe study impact of infectious diseases on population health using incidence-based disabilityadjusted life years (dalys): results from the burden of communicable diseases in europe study, european union and european economic area countries how to value safety in economic evaluations in health care? a review of applications in different sectors willingness to pay to reduce mortality risks: evidence from a three-country contingent valuation study a comparison of willingness to pay to prevent child maltreatment deaths in ecuador and the united states the economic impact of project mars (motivating adolescents to reduce sexual risk) acceptance of vaccinations in pandemic outbreaks: a discrete choice experiment the value of safety: a literature review. forthcoming national cultures in four dimensions: a researchbased theory of cultural differences among nations willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life-year: the individual perspective willingness to pay for improved respiratory and cardiovascular health: a multiple-format, stated-preference approach validity of openended and payment scale approaches to eliciting willingness to pay eliciting willingness to pay without bias using follow-up certainty statements: comparisons between probably/definitely and a 10-point certainty scale the development of the health-risk attitude scale measuring trust in european public institutions how you ask is what you get: framing effects in willingness-to-pay for a qaly anchoring effects on consumers' willingness-to-pay and willingness-to-accept evidence of range bias in contingent valuation payment scales framing the willingness-to-pay question: impact on response pattern and mean willingness to pay what experimental protocol influence disparities between actual and hypothetical stated values? eliciting willingness to pay without bias: evidence from a field experiment measuring the value of a statistical life: problems and prospects towards a comprehensive estimate of national spending on prevention we would like to thank johan von ophem and other discussants at the lolahesg conference 2018 for their constructive feedback on a previous version of this paper.funding the data collection was funded by the european commission under the horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 643476) and part of the compare project (http:// www.compa re-europ e.eu/). s.f.w. himmler receives funding from a marie sklodowska-curie fellowship financed by the european commission (grant agreement no. 721402). conflict of interest the authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.informed consent all individual participants included in this study provided informed consent.open access this article is licensed under a creative commons attribution 4.0 international license, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the creative commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. the images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's creative commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. if material is not included in the article's creative commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. to view a copy of this licence, visit http://creat iveco mmons .org/licen ses/by/4.0/. key: cord-016564-od9mf2f2 authors: capodaglio, andrea g.; callegari, arianna title: online monitoring technologies for drinking water systems security date: 2009 journal: risk management of water supply and sanitation systems doi: 10.1007/978-90-481-2365-0_15 sha: doc_id: 16564 cord_uid: od9mf2f2 more stringent constraints placed nowadays on water companies to provide high quality drinking water, increasing water resources scarcity in many areas of the planet, forcing water companies to work on marginal water bodies for supply, and the threat of hostile actions by political extremists and terrorist groups, that may willingly and deliberately cause contamination of an otherwise safe supply, are recent issues that have spurred demand for more efficient and comprehensive online water monitoring technologies. traditionally, quality parameters associated with drinking water provision were monitored using routine grab samples followed by laboratory analysis. this approach only allowed to capture small data sets, mostly unrepresentative of the true variance at the source, and allowed potentially important events to occur undetected. this paper examines state-of-the-art technologies for online monitoring of water quality in supply water systems, and reports some recent application examples. a safe and reliable supply of drinking water is nowadays an issue that bears strategic significance worldwide. in many areas of the globe the demand for high quality freshwater far exceeds the available supply, already; it is estimated, for example (who, 2003) that over 2 million deaths each year are currently caused worldwide by pathogenic bacteria during the consumption of unsanitary water: it is easily foreseeable that in the future the issue of freshwater resource ______ * to whom correspondence should be addressed. andrea g. capodaglio, department of hydraulic & environmental engineering university of pavia, via ferrata 1, 27100 pavia, e-mail: italy capo@unipv.it and drinking water supply scarcity will continue to escalate, driven by population growth and economic development pressure. more stringent constraints placed nowadays on water companies to provide high quality drinking water, increasing water resources scarcity in many areas of the planet, forcing water companies to work on marginal water bodies for supply, and the threat of hostile actions by political extremists and terrorist groups, that may willingly and deliberately cause contamination of an otherwise safe supply, are recent issues that have spurred demand for more efficient and comprehensive online water monitoring technologies. micro-biological contamination of drinking water has an immediate effect on the emergence of infectious diseases. availability of micro-biologically safe drinking water is probably the most effective and economical way to ensure public health. in addition to "traditional" microbiological contamination by human waste, contamination of drinking water sources with pesticides and herbicides as part of the major contaminating factors is a growing problem worldwide. during the last 2 decades, several studies revealed the presence of hazardous contaminants in wastewater effluents, being discharged in rivers and streams due to "normal" anthropic activities, including pesticides (öllers et al., 2001) , natural and synthetic hormones (kolpin et al., 2002) , plasticizers, personal care products and pharmaceuticals compounds (daughton and ternes, 1999; jones et al., 2002) . a recent study estimated that there are 1,415 human pathogens including 217 viruses and prions, 538 bacteria and ricketssiae, 307 fungi, 66 protozoa and 287 helminths; about 12% are considered to be emerging pathogens. their number continues to grow, as evidenced by the relatively recent emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars), caused by a novel coronavirus. in the past 30-40 years, on average at least one new pathogen has been identified each year, and many more have re-emerged after periods of inactivity or by appearing in areas where they were not previously reported (cunliffe, 2008) . pathogens identified in recent years include a range of organisms that can be transmitted directly from water or by water-related vectors. while a high proportion of the substantial burden of water-borne disease is caused by classical by pathogens such as salmonella typhi and vibrio cholerae, the spectrum of challenges is expanding (table 1) . there are many reasons why water-borne pathogens emerge. in some cases this can be due to advancements in disease diagnosis and detection of the causative organisms: for example, it is likely that cryptosporidium caused diarrhoeal illness before it was diagnosed as a human pathogen in 1976. in other cases true emergence can be caused by factors such as new environments, new technologies and changes in human behaviour. some pathogens have emerged for a combination of reasons. legionella was first detected in 1977 following the 1976 outbreak of legionnaires' disease in philadelphia. however, increased use of water-cooled air conditioning systems and spa pools has contributed to increased incidence of legionnaires' disease. as far as deliberate human hostile actions on urban water supplies, although none has been reported to date, in january, 2002, the fbi circulated a reserved bulletin warning water industry managers that al-qaida terrorists may have been studying american dams and water-supply systems in preparation for new attacks (ionlife, 2002) . traditionally, quality parameters associated with drinking water provision were monitored using routine grab samples followed by laboratory analysis. this approach only allowed to capture small data sets, mostly unrepresentative of the true variance at the source, and allowed potentially important events to occur undetected. it is clear, that, in view of what just reported, this can no longer be considered a satisfactory procedure, and that online monitoring of water supplies, for a larger number of parameters than currently available, is quickly becoming an unavoidable choice. water utilities around the world are already using some form of online monitoring to warn of contamination of drinking water, in anticipation of yetto-be specified regulations: in the united states, turbidity is currently the only quality indicator for which there is a regulatory requirement for continuous online monitoring; in europe, the eu drinking water monitoring regulations (council directive 98/83/ec) do not specifically require online measurements (awwa, 2002). online monitoring is usually defined as the unattended sampling, analysis and reporting of a parameter; it produces a sequence of data at much greater frequency than that permitted by manual (grab) sampling and it also allows real-time feedback for either process control, water quality characterization for operational or regulatory purposes, and alert/alarm purposes. online monitoring can be carried out at onsite as well as remote locations and will deliver measurements at intervals of seconds-to-minutes apart. clearly, online instrumentation must be placed at representative locations in the water system and must be periodically maintained by qualified technical personnel. monitoring requirements can be defined in relationship to: • source water quality: (a) variability, in space and time (very low for groundwater, low for lakes, high for rivers); (b) vulnerability (type and location of possible contaminating activity), time-of-travel of the contaminant to the intake, effectiveness of barriers, control options after an alarm • water treatment: process optimization options and response times, sampling frequency must allow adequate process control • distribution systems: minimization of deterioration of water quality over time and distance, early detection of cross-connections and water losses in addition, it must be considered that online monitors could have different sensitivity and selectivity according to the matrix and range of concentrations analyzed. a multibarrier approach to drinking water quality protection, such as those that are commonly used by facilities worldwide, is based on the concept that contaminants must be subject to as many points of control/treatment (barriers) as possible prior to the tap. the ideal location for control of contaminants is as close to the source as possible. a source water with low vulnerability is therefore characterized by few potential contaminant activities, transit time longer than that required for laboratory analysis, and the presence of multiple physical barriers between contaminating activities and point of intake. in a source water with moderate vulnerability, online monitoring of surrogate parameters (such as toc, doc, uv 254 , ph and conductivity) may be considered to keep track of potential pollution. in a high vulnerability water source, online monitoring of chemical-physical-biological parameters (turbidity, ph, conductivity, redox, fish toxicity) and surrogate parameters in addition to specific indicators (e.g. vocs, phenols and specific toxicity tests) may be preferred. this is summarized in table 2 . some parameters commonly used to monitor in online mode a supply source are listed in table 3 . parameters used to monitor online water treatment are listed in table 4 . both tables list also parameters for which online monitoring technology may not be widely available, nor field proved at the moment, but that may be useful for the given purpose (awwa, 2002) . the availability of real-time analytical information is one of the key benefits of online monitoring instrumentation: this information must however be conveyed to the appropriate user by means of a data collection and transmission system which is often referred to as scada, which consists of the individual online instruments, connected to programmable logic controllers (plcs) or remote telemetry units (rtus), that convert instrument outputs to the desired units, compare them to criteria set by the user, and generate signals for alarm or control to other process equipment. a host computer, that can be used to visualize or store data, or to further utilize them for specific purposes, almost always complements these systems. generally speaking, online monitoring instrumentation can be divided in: • physical monitors (turbidity, particles, color, conductivity, tds, hardness, alkalinity, acidity, streaming current, radioactivity, temperature, redox potential) • inorganic monitors (ph and do, disinfectants, such as chlorines and ozone, metals, fluoride, nutrients, cyanide) • organic monitors (carbon and hydrocarbons, uv adsorption, vocs, pesticides, disinfection by-products) • biological monitors (nonspecific, algae, protozoa, pathogens) • hydraulic monitors (flow, level and pressure) this paper will focus on the four former classes, discussing for each basic operating principles, and evaluation of the technology for online applications in the water distributing system. a wide array of technologies can be used for monitoring physical parameters, among them: light scattering/blocking (turbidity, particles, ss), light absorbance (color), electrochemical (conductivity, hardness, redox), electrophoretic (streaming current), chemical tritration (alkalinity, acidity, hardness) and other (radioactivity, temperature) (table 5) . turbidity refers to the clarity of a water sample, and can be defined as an optical property that causes light to be scattered and absorbed by suspended particulate matter (inorganic or organic) in the sample. it is one of the most commonly monitored parameters in the water industry, and the one that is most amenable to online monitoring. a turbidimeter consists of a light source, a sample cell and a photodetector; commercial instruments differ in the type of light source and the number and location of photodetectors. color is caused by the absorption of visible light by dissolved/colloidal substances or small suspended particles and can be an indication of pollution by disinfection by-products, industrial pollutants and/or metals, although it does not, by itself, represent a health risk. color is in fact regulated as an aesthetic parameter only and is seldom monitored online, except in cases where the water source is subject to industrial effluents and/or storm runoff inputs. color is measured either visually or spectrophotometrically. dissolved organic/inorganic impurities (tds) are compounds of different nature and sources, and constitute the solid residue after all the water evaporates. tds must be determined gravimetrically in the laboratory, however, since these species tend to increase the electrical conductivity of the solution, conductivity is often used as a surrogate measure for tds, especially when in online mode. hardness is defined as the sum of divalent cations in a water sample, and is relevant in drinking water systems for aesthetic reasons and for corrosion concerns. alkalinity is defined as the acid-neutralizing capacity of a solution. both can be determined by chemical tritration (hardness with edta, alkalinity with an acid solution). inorganic monitors are used in online mode to detect influent and effluent water quality, and for treatment process control; the applicable technologies are listed in table 6 . online monitoring of inorganic constituents is still in the early phase for many elements of interest to drinking water concerns. for metals, available technology is an adaptation to automatic operation mode of complex colorimetric methods developed for laboratory applications, and therefore turns out to be expensive and/or complex to operate, nor still suitable for installation in remote or unmanned sites. also, for many metals of interest in drinking water systems (as, cd, pb, hg, se, zn), online monitoring technologies do not exist at all. some promise for future application comes from developments in optode technology, coupled with miniaturized spectrophotometry. the technology for online monitoring of organic compounds includes toc analyzers, uv absorption and differential spectroscopy; it is much more developed than that for inorganics, for this reason, although neither eu nor us regulations require online monitoring of these substances, many drinking water utilities routinely use online organics monitoring to some degree. toc methods measure the carbon content of dissolved and particulate organic matter in the water, without giving information about the nature of this organic substances. table 7 shows the different fractions of carbon measured by an organic carbon analyzer. toc measurement is defined by well established methods and occurs generally according to a four-step process: sample treatment (filtration), inorg. c removal (acidification to ph < 2), oxidation (with uv, catalyzed uv, chemical oxidation, etc.) and co 2 determination (ndir detectors, colorimetry, or conductivity methods). detection limits depend on the specific technique's operating temperature (usually >0.2 mg/l for low temp., >1 mg/l for high temp.). most organic compounds found in water absorb uv radiation: using a uv spectrometer it is therefore possible to estimate the concentration of these compounds. originally, a uv light source with the single wave length of 254 nm was used for such measures, however, in recent years, instrumentation reading the entire uv-vis spectrum (200-750 nm) has been developed and marketed (s-can, 2008) . uv absorption is a well-defined and commonly used methodology; evidence shows strong correlation between these measurements and organic carbon concentration measured with standard methods such as toc or others (figure 1 ). in addition, it has been shown that other parameters can be measured indirectly by correlating their concentration values to uv absorption in the full spectrum ( figure 2) ; several commonly sought organic compounds have typical absorption spectra that make their identification quite easy with appropriate instrumentation (figure 3) . hydrocarbons in general are probably the main class of water pollutants found in surface and ground water (i.e., source water for drinking water systems). methods for online hydrocarbon detection include: fluorometry, reflectivity, light scattering and turbidity measurement, ultrasonic methods, electrical conductivity, spectroscopy, gas-phase detection (after volatilization), resistance-based sensors; some of these methods, however, give just an indication of the presence/absence of oil on the water surface. volatile organic compounds (vocs), including, among the others, aromatic compounds, halogenates and trihalometanes, are compounds that evaporate when exposed to air and can be of health concern when found in drinking water systems (trihalometanes are disinfection by-products -dbps -that can be precursors to the formation of carcinogens). their presence in drinking water can be a symptom of accidental pollution in the source water, of treatment failure/deficiency, or of incorrect disinfection procedures. current online monitoring technologies for vocs include purge-and-trap gaschromatography with flame ionization (fid), electron capture (ecd) or photoionization detectors or mass spectrometry (ms). detection limits for different substances vary according to the detector method. pesticides, including insecticides, fungicides and herbicides comprise triazines and phenlylurea compounds; they are monitored in drinking water systems in order to: detect accidental pollution in source waters, and check the effectiveness of treatment specifically designed to remove such substances. online monitoring of pesticides can be carried out using composite techniques, such as: • high pressure liquid chromatography (hplc)/diode array (da) detection, consists of extraction and enrichment, chromatographic separation and da detection. • gas chromatography (gc), consists of extraction and enrichment, gc separation and mass spectrometer (ms) detection. • liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry, consists in extraction and enrichment, lc separation and ms, thermospray, electrospray or particle beam detection. each technique is capable to optimally detect a group of compounds, for example, hplc/da can be used to analyse; atrazine, chlortoluron, cyanazine, desethylkatrazine, diuron, hexazinone, isoproruton, linuron, metazachlor, methabenzthiszuron, metobrorumon, metolachlor, metoxuron, monolinuron, sebutylazine, simazine and terbutylazine. in theory, any analytical laboratory method can be adapted for use as online measurement, provided that the requirements for consumables and manual intervention can be minimized: current online systems are often a "robotized" adaptation of known offline laboratory procedures, however, not always this solution is the most efficient one. a series of novel technologies, such as optochemical sensors, biosensors, and microbiological sensors are being tested for organics and hydrocarbon analysis. advances already in use include differential uv spectroscopy for dbps detection and microphase solid-phase extraction (spe) for the analysis of semivolatile organics (yongtao et al., 2000) . there are two basic types of biological monitors currently in use: those that use biological species as indicators of the presence of contaminants of concern (e.g. toxic chemicals), and those that screen for the presence of biological species of concern (e.g. nuisance algae, pathogens). in common us terminology, the term biomonitor usually indicates the former, and is in fact used as synonymous with toxicity monitor. in eu terminology, biomonitor refers generally to all types of biologically-based systems. at the present time, many existing biological monitors are quite new and can be considered experimental/unique applications. table 8 shows an overview of the most common types of online biological monitors. sensitivity of test organism to individual compounds must be determined initially. online biological monitors are a very active area of r&d due to increasing regulatory and public demand pressures. while bacterial-based systems show great sensitivity and ease of operation, and development in this area will likely derive from improved fingerprinting of organisms and maintenance cost reduction, most advances can be expected from protozoan monitor technology, with techniques in uv absorption/scattering analysis that may soon allow automated detection of cryptosporidium and giardia. also, molecular techniques initially applied to the recognition of the genomic sequence of specific organisms in clinical applications (bej, 2003) , have also shown great potential for use in the detection of pathogens in water, and are producing extremely interesting results that could lead to widespread online use in the very next future (see also section 5). chemical fingerprinting describes the use of a unique chemical signature, isotopic ratio, mineral species, or pattern analysis to identify different chemicals. optical fingerprinting by uv, vis, and nir absorption spectroscopy can be effectively achieved by low-cost and compact spectrometric devices, that can also be linked to an online diagnostic system, to directly identify some compounds (e.g. benzene) present in the water or to give an indication of the possibility of the presence of related compounds. in optical fingerprinting, a wide portion of the uv, vis and nir spectrum can be monitored simultaneously at high measurement frequency (minutes or fractions thereof); figure 4 shows the spectral fingerprint of a typical municipal wastewater, in the range 230-630 nm, together with three other spectral readings from the same source that were recorded within 18 min from the first. these show clearly different features, indicating a pronounced change in water quality. although this alone will not, in general, indicate the compound or compounds responsible for the change (they will need to be further investigated, if a definite answer is desired), but that can nevertheless trigger an alert to the system's operator, indicating deviation from routine conditions. some relevant applications taken from recent literature, are illustrated in the following sections, as examples of the current state-of-the-art in online monitoring technology. the river trent drains the large, mainly urban, catchment of midlands, with 4 million residents, in the uk; although traditionally it has been considered too polluted to serve as a drinking water supply source, the river has undergone marked improvements in quality until, in 1996, it was targeted as such. water is currently withdrawn from the river into bankside storage lakes, from where is taken to a purification plant. at this point, it became necessary to identify a suitable online monitoring strategy in order to protect this planned development (kirmeyer et al., 2002) . in order to protect water quality and provide operational data to the treatment plant operators, a list of parameters subject to online/laboratory monitoring has been established (table 9 ). online monitors provide an alarm when a preset warning limit is exceeded, prompting immediate additional investigation. when a second, "action" preset limit is exceeded, water extraction into storage is automatically terminated. online monitors include traditional inorganic, organic and oil monitors, as well as an automated liquid chromatography (hplc) system for monitoring organics, originally developed for analysis of triazine and phenylurea in the rhine river, and uniquelly adapted to detect other acid herbicides and phenolic compounds known to be frequently present in the trent, at levels < 1.0 μg/l. vocs are detected by means of a purge-and-trap gc analyzer. maintenance requirements are relatively high (each unit requires 2-3 h of onsite attendance twice a week, in addition to the time required to review data, prepare buffers and standards, etc.). overall, in about 10 years of operation, the system has recorded several incidents of parameter abnormality in the river trent, including ammonia toxicity events and contamination by various herbicides. it has been confirmed that online monitoring gives a far better definition of each recorded event than otherwise available, while spot samples analyzed at the laboratory in parallel have always been in good agreement with the online results. the llobregat river, near barcelona (spain) is characterized by a highly variable flowrate; to ensure sufficient supply during drought periods, dams have been built along its course. in addition, a continuous, automatic system with ten stations along its course has been put in place to monitor critical water quality parameters; these may vary depending on the monitoring location, in order to account for different needs and conditions. there are three types of stations: basic (1, upstream), complete (2, midstream) and special (7, mid-to-downstream); these are described in table 10 . the objectives of the monitoring network are: • to provide warning of pollution incidents, ensuring safety of the water produced by the purification plants • to control instream water quality by monitoring changes in pollution indicators • to provide information for the operators of the water systems and planners through data access with a specifically created scada user interface in the course of several years of operation the automatic water quality monitoring network has recorded various incidents of pollution, including: • repeated occurrences of salinity discharges from potash mines, caused by accidental breakage of collectors or leaching due to rainfall • an event of chromium pollution in a tributary stream, due to industrial source discharges • multiple overflows of drainage and sewer systems causing variations of turbidity, toc, ammonia, uv adsorption and do • highly significant variations of physical and chemical parameters (mainly do, ph) due to photosynthetic activity 4.3. on-line monitoring networks for drinking water security of karst water springs in geological karstic formations are the main source for drinking water supply for about 60% of the austrian population. water quality from these springs shows rapid, occasional instabilities for some parameters, caused by natural events, such as heavy rainfalls. rapid fluctuations of raw water quality, especially concerning turbidity, but also elevated concentrations of dissolved organic substances, and increased bacteria counts can occur in an unpredictable way during storm weather. furthermore, anthropogenic events like accidents and spills in proximity of the springs might also affect the quality of the raw water. the raw water quality is obviously one of the most important factors determining the final quality of the drinking water, in addition, rapid changes of source quality can limit the efficient usage of treatment procedures during drinking water production. as it is impossible to predict the impact of such events, it is vital to enhance drinking water security by monitoring the composition of the raw water continuously. main springs and important locations in the trunk mains had been monitored online since the late 1990s. buildings equipped with power supply, pipe installations and special foundations had to be built for housing cabinet analysers, for monitoring spectral absorption coefficient (uv 254 ), toc, turbidity, electrical conductivity and ph. in year 2000, a novel submersible uv-vis-spectrometer, introduced by s::can messtechnik gmbh, capable of measuring light absorbance in the spectral range of 200 nm to 750 nm, and thus turbidity, organic carbons (e.g. toc, doc) and nitrate without any sample preparation were adopted. this new monitoring equipment provided new opportunities to the waterworks by allowing to monitor the totality of springs, even those without power supply, and by eliminating pumps, filters, membranes and reagents that were used by the old instrumentation, lowering substantially the overall cost of monitoring operations (weingartner and hosftaeder, 2006) . at present, vienna waterworks operates a s::can-based monitoring systems in order to monitor turbidity, sac254, nitrate, toc, doc, temperature and electric conductivity at 22 locations, since monitoring just one parameter would not meet the needs of efficient and safe drinking water supply, as different types of events cause different changes in the composition of the spring water. the results of these monitoring systems are transferred in real time to an early warning system that can be accessed from four central stations. this early warning system manages the raw water sources 24 h a day. whenever current readings exceed limits that are specific to each parameter, the water of the spring of concern will not be used for drinking water production but drained away. oxidation of organic materials for drinking water disinfection is a commonly applied treatment step. during oxidation of natural organic substances in the source water, for example using ozone, large molecules, such as humic and fulvic acids, are cracked into smaller ones. a side-effect of this procedure is the increased availability of microbiologically assimilable organic carbon (aoc): whereas the original large molecules are not readily accessible to microorganisms, the smaller oxidation products can be digested and thus can stimulate bacterial regrowth in the distribution network. aoc is an important parameter especially in drinking water networks where no residual disinfectant is present in the water; its measurement is performed using cell cultures, which is a lengthy procedure. online uv/vis spectroscopy has proven itself as a tool that allows the collection of specific information on the removal efficiency for and subsequent concentrations of (organic) substances in water. the use of two on-line spectrometer instruments, placed before and after a treatment step, and the calculation of the differential spectrum between these two sites could open up a further area in water quality monitoring and process control as it allows calculation and prediction of water quality parameters previously unavailable (van der broeke et al., 2007) . two on-line spectrometers probes were installed in the pilot plant of amsterdam waterworks, weesperkarspel. in this pilot plant, the full treatment train of the waterworks is represented. the source, an artificial lake with high concentrations of natural organic matter, is sequentially treated in an ozone reactor (four bubble columns), pellet softening reactor, biological activated carbon (bac) filtration reactor and finally a slow sand filter. a parallel bac reactor was fed with water from the full scale treatment plant, which uses identical raw water, to be able to verify the effects of the changes in the ozone settings on water quality. the aoc calibration obtained in this way is a surrogate parameter, in the sense that the aoc concentrations in the water are far below the concentrations that can be distinguished using a uv/vis spectrophotometer without sample pre-concentration. the developed calibration, in combination with the on-line spectrometer probe, allows for on-line, in-situ measurement of dissolved ozone concentrations. the use of two instruments simultaneously, required to perform on-line differential measurements, allowed the prediction of the changes in aoc levels in individual treatment steps in real-time. the software ana::larm, for use with online uv spectrometers in a speciallydesigned configuration ( figure 5 ), has been developed specifically for contaminant alarm systems based on thousands of spectra, and is successfully used in several applications in europe. the training of the alarm parameters can be done by the instrument automatically, or is done manually guided by the pc software. it allows for a very simple half-or fully automatic setup and configuration of up to eight spectral alarm parameters within a few minutes. it will react on any type of figure 5 . configuration of online monitoring station for use with the software ana::larm organic contamination that provides an absorption signal in the uv range. the alarm sensitivity for many organic contaminants is between 1 and 500 ppb. at the same time it is most insensitive to any fluctuation of the matrix within the natural "normal" range, and thus keeps false alarms to an unmatched minimum. the approach and methods used are absolutely new and unique, and open a completely new perspective for water monitoring beyond the trending of "classical" concentration parameters (s-can, 2008b) . a contaminant warning system (cws) as an integrated tool that employs in-situ sensors, supervisory control and data acquisition (scada) systems, and water quality event detection systems (eds) to continuously monitor network conditions and warn operations personnel of any potential contamination events, has been studied by the us environmental protection agency (epa) and sandia national laboratories (hasan, et al., 2004; grayman, et al., 2001) . the sensor component can be comprised of various water quality sensing platforms, including contaminant-specific sensors, or existing water quality sensors (e.g., ph, cl, electrical conductivity, etc.) as currently installed in many municipal water distribution systems to provide "surrogate" data to the cws's. it has in fact been proved by experiments conducted in laboratory and pipe test loop systems, that a majority of potential contaminants will change values of at least a surrogate parameter away from normal background levels (byer and carlson, 2005; cook et al., 2005; hall et al., 2007) . monitoring of surrogate parameters can therefore provide information on the presence of contaminants within a distribution system and this information can be transmitted to a central processing location through the scada system. the challenge is to analyze the surrogate parameter signals to accurately identify changes in water quality that are significantly beyond the range of the ambient variability of the background water quality. the recently developed the canary eds software (hart et al., 2007) is an open-source software platform that gathers water quality signal inputs from scada systems and processes the data using one or more event detection algorithms, using a number of statistical models to determine the probability of an anomalous water quality event occurring for a given time step and monitoring location within the distribution network (mckenna and hart, 2008 ). the canary system has not been used in real applications, yet, and offline case studies, based on real hystorical data, have evidentiated some problems in correctly pinpointing alarm causes, as changes in the network hydraulics (such as opening and closing valves, draining/filling of storage tanks and pump operations) can cause significant changes in water quality as waters of different ages and from different sources mix within the network. the existence of escherichia coli (e.coli) in drinking water is an important indicator of faecal pathogens and potential micro biological contamination. currently available detection methods for its presence in drinking water distribution networks are inadequate, for multiple reasons: first of all, current methods are very time consuming meaning that contamination will already have reached end-users before laboratory results are available; secondly, current sampling and analysis procedures lead to detection success rates of only 5% to maximum 25% (with optimized sample taking). research by scientists from the dutch kiwa shows that by using a network of on-line sensors, the success rate can be increased to 80% (koerkamp and van wijlen, 2008) . the core of this labonline system is based on a combination of a concentrator unit and a sensor system using disposable chips, which prevent the sensor system itself from cross-contaminations and guarantee reliable and high quality measurements in time. initially designed for e.coli, the system is theoretically capable of detecting a broad group of microbiological contaminants like bacteria and viruses. industrial production is scheduled for late 2009. the same research group developed a sensor technology for pesticides based on a combination of an integrated optic chip, a biochemical transduction layer (micro)-fluidics, electronics and data acquisition and system control software, called optiqua mobilelab. the optiqua mobilelab sensor for the detection of pesticides will have the following characteristics: low cost per analysis, easy to use, detection of five pesticides (simazine, atrazine, glyphosat, ampa, bam (2,6-dichlorbenzamide), detection of additional pesticides (available in later stages), on site detection, prompt analysis results (minutes), high resolution (e.g. detection limits 0.05 μg/l with a dynamic range of 0.05 -10 μg/l), robust, low maintenance system. knowledge of the sequence of microbial genomes has led to the development of molecular methods for detection of microbial pathogens in clinical specimens as well as water and other environmental samples. a wide array of molecular techniques has therefore been applied to the study of microbiological water quality issues. the application of molecular techniques, such as pcr (polymerase chain reaction) has generated a great deal of valuable information on the occurrence, diversity, and biology of pathogens in water (loge et al., 2002) . in addition, molecular methods demonstrate rapid detection and enhanced specificity compared to other analytical methods. a micro analysis system for water pathogen monitoring consists of a micro polymerase chain reaction (pcr) chip integrated with a continuous-flow microarray that is able to reduce the analysis time from about 24 h to within several hours as compared with the existing epa approved methods was presented by yong (2008) . pathogen samples were successfully detected by the micro analysis system through dna amplification by the micro pcr chip followed by direct transfer of the amplicons to the microarray for detection. in addition to one species monitoring, the system shows potential in direct monitoring of a range of pathogens at the same time through pcr and different probes immobilized on microarrays. comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography also referred to as gcxgc, is an analytical technique in which all the eluted compounds from a first column are successively submitted to a new separation in a second column with different selectivity. contrary to gas chromatography (gc) which employs only one chromatographic column, gcxgc uses two chromatographic columns, coupled in series, with a modulator at their junction. developed in 1991, due to its principle, gcxgc offers a much better capacity of separation and a better sensitivity than conventional gas chromatography. thanks to the sensitivity of gcxgc (three-to fivefold higher than gc) some compounds can be detected at the ng/l level. semard et al. (2008) applied this technique to the screening of wastewater and effluents samples. a large range of drugs (antidepressors, antibiotics, anticoagulants…), personal care products (sunscreens, antiseptics, cosmetics…) and carcinogen compounds were found in the raw waste water samples. in addition to the above mentioned micropollutants, a wide variety of nitrogen aliphatic and aromatic structures that could act as dbp (disinfection by-products) precursors, were also uncovered. this technology does not yet have the potential for direct online application. courtois et al. (2008) also propose a molecular technique, based on polymerase chain reactions to detect pathogens. to improve pcr diagnostics for routine analysis purposes, they focus on the processing of the sample, which is crucial for the robustness and the overall performance of the method. their objectives in sample preparation are to increase the concentration of the target organisms to the practical operating range of a given pcr assay; and to produce a purified dna extract that would be representative of the initial water sample and would be free of pcr-inhibitory substances. this can be achieved by means of a twostep ultrafiltration (uf) procedure by using protoptype hollow fiber uf cartridge, and a commercial uf centrifugal concentrator. this paper has overviewed existing instrumentation applicable to water supply online monitoring, and examined a few state-of-the-art application examples. it is clear that technological development in this field is very rapid, and that astonishing advances are anticipated in several areas (fingerprinting, optochemical sensors, biosensors, molecular techniques). software applications, together with new generation sensors, are also contributing to the identification of otherwise difficultly monitored parameters. in spite of the high technology being developed, monitoring costs are bound to become a lesser and lesser part of a water utility budget due to the fact that automation and technological simplification will abate the human cost factor (maintenance and other labour forms) and reduce significantly the complexity of procedures (with those, of reagent requirements, etc.). proper interpretation and use of the growing mass of water quality data that will become available through new technologies will allow better management of water resources, and water treatment and distribution facilities. online monitoring for drinking water utilities molecular based methods for the detection of microbial pathogens in the environment real-time detection of intentional chemical contamination in decision support system for water distribution system monitoring for homeland security universal concentration for large volumes of water samples before molecular detection of waterborne pathogens emerging enteric and potentially waterborne pathogens in the region ternes (1999) pharmaceuticals and personal care products in the environment: agents of subtle change? design of early warning and predictive source water monitoring systems on-line water quality parameters as indicators of distribution system contamination canary: a water quality event detection algorithm development tool safeguarding the security of public water supplies using early warning systems: a brief review case studies of online monitoring systems next generation sensors for detection of pesticides and e.coli in water pharmaceuticals, hormones, and other organic wastewater contaminants in u.s. streams, 1999-2000: a national reconnaissance how safe is our water? the threat of terrorism human pharmaceuticals in the aquatic environment pcr detection of specific pathogens in water: a risk-based analysis on-line identification of adverse water quality events from monitoring of surrogate data: canary software simultaneous quantification of neutral and acidic pharmaceuticals and pesticides at the low-ng/l level in surface waters use of on-line uv/vis-spectrometry in the measurement of dissolved ozone and aoc concentrations in drinking water treatment on-line monitoring networks for drinking water security of karst water. all about karst and water, vienna. who (2003) emerging issues in water and infectious disease. world health organization ) micro analysis system for water pathogen monitoring spe twin-pal. online in situ monitoring of semivolatile organic compounds in water key: cord-195224-7zfq0kxm authors: menda, kunal; becdelievre, jean de; gupta, jayesh k.; kroo, ilan; kochenderfer, mykel j.; manchester, zachary title: scalable identification of partially observed systems with certainty-equivalent em date: 2020-06-20 journal: nan doi: nan sha: doc_id: 195224 cord_uid: 7zfq0kxm system identification is a key step for model-based control, estimator design, and output prediction. this work considers the offline identification of partially observed nonlinear systems. we empirically show that the certainty-equivalent approximation to expectation-maximization can be a reliable and scalable approach for high-dimensional deterministic systems, which are common in robotics. we formulate certainty-equivalent expectation-maximization as block coordinate-ascent, and provide an efficient implementation. the algorithm is tested on a simulated system of coupled lorenz attractors, demonstrating its ability to identify high-dimensional systems that can be intractable for particle-based approaches. our approach is also used to identify the dynamics of an aerobatic helicopter. by augmenting the state with unobserved fluid states, a model is learned that predicts the acceleration of the helicopter better than state-of-the-art approaches. the codebase for this work is available at https://github.com/sisl/ceem. the performance of controllers and state-estimators for non-linear systems depends heavily on the quality of the model of system dynamics (hou & wang, 2013) . systemidentification addresses the problem of learning or calibrating dynamics models from data (ljung, 1999) , which is often a time-history of observations of the system and control inputs. in this work, we address the problem of learning dynamics models of partially observed systems (shown in · · · · · · · · · x txt+1 f θ (x, u, t) g θ (x, u, t) g θ (x, u, t + 1) · · · · · · system identification figure 1. a graphical model representing a partially observed dynamical system. gray-box identification algorithms attempt to search a model class of dynamics and observation models for the model that maximizes the likelihood of the observations. figure 1 ) that are high-dimensional and non-linear. we consider situations in which the system's state cannot be inferred from a single observation, but instead requires inference over time-series of observations. the problem of identifying systems from partial observations arises in robotics (punjani & abbeel, 2015; cory & tedrake, 2008; ordonez et al., 2017) as well as domains such as chemistry (gustavsson, 1975) and biology (sun et al., 2008) . in many robotic settings, we have direct measurements of a robot's pose and velocity, but in many cases we cannot directly observe relevant quantities such as the temperature of actuators, the state the environment around the robot, or the intentions of other agents. for example, abbeel et al. (2010) attempted to map the pose and velocity of an aerobatic helicopter to its acceleration. they found their model to be inaccurate when predicting aggressive maneuvers because of the substantial airflow generated by the helicopter that affected the dynamics. since it is often impossible to directly measure the state of the airflow around a vehicle, identification must be with only partial observability. system identification is a mature field with a rich history (ljung, 1999; 2010) . a variety of techniques have been proposed to learn predictive models from time series arxiv:2006.11615v1 [cs. lg] 20 jun 2020 data. autoregressive approaches directly map a time-history of past inputs to observations, without explicitly reasoning about unobserved states (billings, 2013) , and are the stateof-the-art approach to the aforementioned problem of modeling the aerobatic helicopter (punjani & abbeel, 2015) . in contrast, state-space models (ssm) assume an unobserved state x t that evolves over time and emits observations y t that we measure, as shown in figure 1 . recurrent neural networks (rnns) (bailerjones et al., 1998; zimmermann & neuneier, 2000) are a form of black-box non-linear ssm that can be fit to observation and input time-series, and subspace identification (sid) methods (van overschee & de moor, 1994) can be used to fit linear ssms. however, in many cases prior knowledge can be used to specify structured, parametric models of the system (gupta et al., 2019; in state-space form, commonly refered to as gray-box models. such models can be trained with less data and used with a wider array of control and stateestimation techniques than black-box models (gupta et al., 2019; lutter et al., 2019b; a) . to identify partially observed gray-box models, the unobserved state-trajectory is often considered as a missing data, and techniques based on expectation-maximization (em) are used (dempster et al., 1977; schön et al., 2011; kantas et al., 2015; ghahramani & roweis, 1999) . the smoothing step (e-step) deals with state inference-the current system dynamics estimate is used to infer the distribution of unobserved state-trajectories conditioned on the observations p(x 1:t | y 1:t ). this distribution is sometimes called joint smoothing distribution in the literature, and it is used to estimate the expected log-likelihood of the observations. in the learning step (m-step), the system's dynamics estimate is updated such that it maximizes the expected log-likelihood. the smoothing step can typically be approached with particle approximations of p(x 1:t | y 1:t ), but naive implementations of particle smoothers can be computationally intensive and become rapidly intractable in high dimensions. across various fields and disciplines, numerous methods have been developed to alleviate the computational burden, several of which are discussed in section 2.3. this work is motivated by robotics applications, in which the following assumptions are often valid: • systems evolve nearly deterministically, which implies that the process noise is small and unimodal, and, • the distribution of states conditioned on the observations p(x 1:t | y 1:t ) is unimodal. we study the benefits of making the certainty-equivalent approximation in the e-step of the em procedure, and we refer to this approach as ce-em. specifically, we use non-linear programming to tractably find the maximum-likelihood (ml) point-estimate of the unobserved states, and use it in lieu of a fully characterized approximate distribution. the contributions of this paper are to describe an efficient implementation of ce-em, and to test the approximation against state-of-the-art approaches on a variety of systemidentification problems. we demonstrate on a system of lorenz attractors that: • ce-em can be faster and more reliable than approaches using particle approximations, • ce-em scales to high-dimensional problems, and, • ce-em learns unbiased parameter estimates on deterministic systems with unimodal p(x 1:t | y 1:t ). we also demonstrate the algorithm on the problem of identifying the dynamics of an aerobatic helicopter. we show that a non-linear ssm can be trained with ce-em that outperforms various approaches including the most recent work done on this dataset (punjani & abbeel, 2015) . a codebase implementing ce-em and other supplementary material can be found at our website: https://sites.google. com/stanford.edu/ceem/. this section states the nonlinear system identification problem with partial observations and discusses approaches that use em to solve it. in this work, we assume that we are given a batch of trajectories containing observations y 1:t ∈ r m×t of a dynamical system as it evolves over a time horizon t , possibly forced by some known input sequence u 1:t . we assume that this dynamical system has a state x ∈ r n that evolves and generates observations according to the following equations, where w t is referred to as the process noise and v t as the observation noise. both w t and v t are assumed to be additive for notational simplicity, but this is not a required assumption. 1 without loss of generality, we can drop the dependence on u t , absorbing it into the dependence on t. we further assume that we are provided a class of parameterized models f θ (x, t) and g θ (x, t) for θ ∈ θ that approximate the dynamical system's evolution and observation processes. the goal of our algorithm is to find the parameters θ that maximize the likelihood of the observations. that is, we seek to find: (2) using the graphical model shown in figure 1 , we can rewrite this integral as: (3) finally, using the notation chosen to describe a dynamical system in equation (1), we obtain: the expectation-maximization (em) algorithm has been used in the literature to solve problems of this form. the em algorithm is a two-step procedure that copes with the missing state information by forming an approximation q(θ, θ k ) of the joint state and observation likelihood p θ (x 1:t , y 1:t ) at the kth iteration of the algorithm: q(θ, θ k ) = log p(x 1:t , y 1:t | θ)· p(x 1:t | y 1:t , θ k )dx 1:t classical proofs show that maximizing q(θ, θ k ) with respect to θ results in increasing p θ (x 1:t , y 1:t ) (dempster et al., 1977) . the em algorithm iteratively performs two steps: the evaluation of q(θ, θ k ) in the e-step requires the estimation the p(x 1:t | y 1:t , θ k ), as well as the integration of the likelihood over this distribution. in the linear gaussian case, em can be performed exactly using kalman smoothing (rauch et al., 1965; ghahramani & hinton, 1996) . in the more general case, there is no analytic solution, and previous work on approximating the e-step is summarized in the next section. there are general approaches that are based on particle representations of the joint states-observations likelihood which use sequential monte-carlo (smc) methods such as particle smoothing (ps) (schön et al., 2011; kantas et al., 2015) . with enough particles, ps can handle any system and any joint distribution of states and observations. however, ps suffers from the curse of dimensionality, requiring an intractably large number of particles if the state space is high-dimensional (snyder et al., 2008; kantas et al., 2015) . in the simplest form, both the e-step and the m-step can be quadratic in complexity with respect to the number of particles (schön et al., 2011) . an important body of work has attempted to alleviate some of this burden by using nested smc (naesseth et al., 2015) and forward filtering-backward simulation (ffbsi), (lindsten & schön, 2013) , and conditional particle filtering (lindsten, 2013) in the e-step. ps can also require variance reduction techniques, such as fulladaptation, to perform reliably, and likelihood estimates in the e-step can be noisy . stochastic approximation em can be used to stabilize learning in the presence of this noise (delyon et al., 1999; . another group of methods is based on linearizing the dynamics around the current state estimates to obtain a timedependant linear gaussian dynamical system, to which we can apply kalman smoothing techniques. ghahramani & roweis (1999) use extended kalman smoothing (eks) for a fast e-step and show that, when using radial basis functions to describe the system dynamics, no assumption is required in the m-step. the drawbacks of this approach are that the number of radial basis functions required to accurately represent a function grows exponentially with the input dimension, that the user cannot specify a gray-box ssm, and that eks performance can vary dramatically with the hyperparameters. goodwin & aguero (2005) proposed a method called map-em, which linearizes around the state-trajectory that maximizes joint state and observation likelihood, approximates process and observation noise as gaussian, and performs a local version of em using this linearization. in comparison, the method we consider assumes that the maximum likelihood state-trajectory estimate concentrates all of the probability mass. goodwin & aguero (2005) call this simplification certainty equivalent em (ce-em) and report worse results than their approach on simple examples. this paper shows that ce-em can actually be a fast, simple, and reliable approach. the method we use here is tailored to systems that are not dominated by process noise, in which the state-trajectory distribution is unimodal, and whose high dimensional state-space make other methods intractable. such scenarios are regularly encountered in robotics, but perhaps less so in other applications domains of system identification such as chemistry, biology, or finance. this section introduces the ce-em approximation and presents an efficient algorithm to identify high-dimensional robotic systems. under the certainty-equivalence condition, the distribution of states conditioned on observations is assumed to be a dirac delta function. that is, we assume: in other words, this assumption implies that there is only one state trajectory that satisfies the system dynamics, and is coherent with the data. the e-step can be rewritten as: by observing the maximization of the expression in equation (7) as the e-step, and maximizing the expression in equation (8) as the m-step, we see that ce-em is simply block coordinate-ascent on the single joint-objective: jointly maximizing this objective over x 1:t and θ yields θ ml . though this objective can be optimized as is by a non-linear optimizer, it is not necessarily efficient to do so since θ and x 1:t are highly coupled, leading to inefficient and potentially unstable updates. for this reason, we still opt for the block coordinate-ascent approach similar to em, where θ and x 1:t are each sequentially held constant while the other algorithm 1. ce-em implementation input: observations y 1:t , control inputs u 1:t , stopping criterion tol initialize: model parameters θ initialize: hidden state estimates is optimized. by viewing em as block coordinate-ascent, we may also borrow good practices typically employed when running the algorithm (shi et al., 2016) . in particular, we employ trust-region regularization in order to guarantee convergence in even non-convex settings (grippo & sciandrone, 2000) . at iteration k, we first perform smoothing by holding θ constant and finding the ml point-estimate for x 1:t as follows: (10) where ρ x scales a soft trust-region regularizer similar to damping terms found in levenberg-marquardt methods (levenberg, 1944; marquardt, 1963) . we note that the hessians of this objective with respect to x 1:t are blocksparse, and as a result this step can be efficiently solved with a second-order optimizer in o(n 2 t ). if the cost function j(x 1:t , θ) is a sum of quadratic terms, i.e. if all stochasticity is gaussian, then the smoothing can be solved with a gauss-newton method, where the hessian matrix is approximated using first-order (jacobian) information. in this case, the solution to the smoothing step is equivalent to iteratively performing eks (aravkin et al., 2017) . however, eks typically involves forward and backward passes along each trajectory, performing a riccati-like update at each time step. though square-root versions of the algorithm exist to improve its numerical stability (bierman, 1981) , solving the problem with batch non-linear least-squares as opposed to iteratively performing a forward-backward method can improve stability for long time-series (van dooren, 1981). in the learning step, we hold x 1:t constant and find: again, ρ θ scales a soft trust-region regularizer, and specifying log p(θ) allows us to regularize θ toward a prior. the above optimization problem can be solved using any nonlinear optimizer. we find the nelder-mead (gao & han, 2012) scheme well-suited for small parameter spaces, and first-order schemes such as adam (kingma & ba, 2015) , or quasi-second-order schemes such as l-bfgs (liu & nocedal, 1989 ) suited for larger parameter spaces such as those of neural networks. the routine, summarized in algorithm 1, iterates between the smoothing and learning steps until convergence. it should be noted that making the certainty-equivalent approximation is generally known to bias parameter estimates (celeux & govaert, 1992) , but can yield the correct solutions under the assumptions we make (neal & hinton, 1998) . readers of goodwin & aguero (2005) will likely be left with the incorrect impression that ce-em is an inferior method that would perform poorly in practice. the objective of our experiments is to demonstrate that the ce-em algorithm is capable of identifying high-dimensional nonlinear systems in partially observed settings. we do so in simulation by identifying the parameters of a system of partially observed coupled lorenz attractors, as well as by identifying the dynamics of a real aerobatic helicopter. in the second experiment, we build on previous analysis of the dataset (abbeel et al., 2010; punjani & abbeel, 2015) by attempting to characterize the interaction of the helicopter with the fluid around it, without having any direct observation of the fluid state. instructions for reproducing all experiments are included in the supplementary material. in this experiment, we show that: 1. ce-em learns unbiased parameter estimates of systems that are close to deterministic, and, 2. ce-em scales to high-dimensional problems in which particle-based methods can be intractable. to justify these claims, we use a system that is sufficiently non-linear and partially observable to make particle-based smoothing methods intractable. we choose a system of coupled lorenz attractors for this purpose, owing to their ability to exhibit chaotic behavior and their use in nonlinear atmospheric and fluid flow models (bergé et al., 1984) . arbitrary increases in state dimensionality can be achieved by coupling multiple individual attractors. the state of a system with k coupled lorenz attractors is x ∈ r 3k = {. . . , x 1,k , x 2,k , x 3,k , . . .}. the dynamics of the system are as follows:ẋ where h is an r 3k×3k matrix. we nominally set the parameters (σ k , ρ k , β k ) to the values (10, 28, 8/3), and randomly sample the entries of h from a normal distribution to generate chaotic and coupled behavior between attractors, while avoiding self-coupling. these parameters are estimated during identification. in order to make the system partially observed, the observation y ∈ r (3k−2) is derived from x as follows: where c ∈ r (3k−2)×3k is a known matrix with full rowrank, and v is the observation noise sampled from a gaussian with diagonal covariance σ 2 v i. the entries of c are also randomly sampled from a standard normal distribution. in the following experiments, we simulate the system for t = 128 timesteps at a sample rate of ∆t = 0.04s, and integrate the system using a 4th-order runge-kutta method. initial conditions for each trajectory are sampled such that x 1,k ∼ n (−6, 2.5 2 ), x 2,k ∼ n (−6, 2.5 2 ), x 3,k ∼ n (24, 2.5 2 ). to test the conditions under which ce-em learns unbiased parameter estimates, we simulate a single lorenz system with h = 0 and known c ∈ r 2×3 . we introduce and vary the process noise w ∼ n (0, σ 2 w i), and vary the observation noise coefficient σ v , and then attempt to estimate the parameters (σ, ρ, β). using initial guesses within 10% of the system's true parameter values, we run ce-em on a single sampled trajectory. for each choice of σ w and σ v , we repeat this process for 10 random seeds. table 1 shows the mean and standard errors of parameter estimates for various σ w and σ v . we highlight in red the mean estimates that are not within two standard errors of their true value. we see that σ and ρ are estimated without bias for all scenarios. however, the estimate of β appears to become biased as the process noise is increased, but not as the observation noise is increased. this supports the assumption that the objective used in ce-em is sound when systems evolve close to deterministically, but can be biased if it is not. in section 2, we discussed methods for parameter estimation in state-space systems that are based on particle-filtering and smoothing (kantas et al., 2015) . since in their e-step, these methods approximate the distribution over unobserved state-trajectories as opposed to only their point estimate, such methods can be asymptotically unbiased. however, for a finite number of particles, such methods can result in high-variance estimates. in this experiment, we compare the bias resulting from using ce-em with the variance of using a state-of-the-art particle em algorithm. we attempt to identify the parameters (σ, ρ, β) of the same single lorenz system as in section 4.1.1. however, we introduce process noise w ∼ n (0, 0.1 2 i) and observation noise v ∼ n (0, 0.5 2 i). we use a training dataset of four trajectories sampled with conditions specified in section 4.1. the performance of particle em can vary substantially depending on implementation of the particle filter and smoother in the e-step, and implementation of the mstep. we use a fully-adapted particle filter with systematic and adaptive resampling, following the recommendations of doucet et al. (2000) ; hol et al. (2006) . furthermore, we use the ffbsi algorithm (godsill et al., 2004; lindsten & schön, 2013) in order to generate iid samples of smoothed state-trajectories, while avoiding complexity that is quadratic in the number of particles experienced by the forward filter-backward smoother (ffbsm) approach (doucet et al., 2000) . we then use stochastic approximation em (saem) (delyon et al., 1999) to perform the m-step. 2 we use n p = 100 particles for filtering, and sample n s = 10 smoothed trajectories using ffbsi. figure 2 shows the estimated parameters versus em epoch using ce-em and particle em. we plot learning curves for 10 random seeds, each of which initializes parameter estimates to within 10% of their true value, and uses a different set of training trajectories. we see that ce-em consistently converges to accurate parameter estimates in approximately 5 epochs. estimates of particle em appear to initially diverge but in all but one case converge to a similar accuracy in 50 epochs. furthermore, since the com2 we have found that using ffbsi with saem performs more reliably than ffbsm with the m-step recommended by (schön et al., 2011) , and both implementations can be found in the associated codebase. plexity of ffbsi is o(n p n s ), 3 the runtime per epoch of particle em is 47× more than that of ce-em. 4 since the variance of particle-based methods generally increases with the effective dimension of the system, the bias induced by ce-em may be a worthwhile trade-off for fast and reliable parameter estimation. to demonstrate that ce-em is capable of identifying highdimensional systems, we show that we can estimate the dynamics of an 18 dimensional system of six coupled lorenz attractors. moreover, we test whether ce-em converges to more accurate estimates when more trajectories are provided. to test these claims, we sample 2, 4, and 8 trajectories from a deterministic system with parameters θ true , and σ v = 0.01. we randomly initialize each element of the parameters being optimized (θ = [σ 1:k , ρ 1:k , β 1:k , h]) to within 10% of the their value in θ true . we then run ce-em on each batch, tracking the error in the estimated dynamics as training proceeds. we measure this error, which we call (θ), as follows: in the learning step, we do not regularize θ to a prior and set ρ θ = 0. for comparison, we also run the same particle em implementation as in the previous experiment on this problem. we use the same n p , n s , and hyperparameters as before. figure 3 shows the results of this experiment for four random seeds for each batch size. we can see that, as the number of trajectories used in training increases, the error in the estimated dynamics tends toward zero. furthermore, we see that ce-em convergences monotonically to a local optimum in all cases. in contrast, particle em appears to initially improve but then converges to very poor parameter estimates. the experiments conducted thus far have demonstrated that ce-em can learn unbiased parameter estimates of nearlydeterministic systems, and can scale to high-dimensional problems for which particle-based methods are intractable. in the next experiment, we use ce-em to characterize the effect of unobserved states on the dynamics of an aerobatic helicopter. characterizing the dynamics of a helicopter undergoing aggressive aerobatic maneuvers is widely considered to be a challenging system-identification problem (abbeel et al., 2010; punjani & abbeel, 2015) . the primary challenge is that the forces on the helicopter depend on the induced state of the fluid around it. the state of the fluid cannot be directly observed and its dynamics model is unknown. merely knowing the state of the helicopter and the control commands at a given time does not contain enough information to accurately predict the forces that act on it. in order to address this issue, (punjani & abbeel, 2015) use an approach based on takens theorem, which suggests that a system's state can be reconstructed with a finite number of lagged-observations of it (takens, 1981) . instead of attempting to estimate the unobserved fluid state, they directly learn a mapping from a 0.5 s history of observed state measurements and control commands to the forces acting on the helicopter. this approach is equivalent to considering the past 0.5 s of observations as the system's state. however, it can require a very large number of lagged observations to represent complex phenomena. in reality, the characteristic time of unsteady flows around helicopters can easily be up to tens of seconds. having such a high dimensional state can make the control design and state-estimation more complicated. to avoid large input dimensions, a trade-off between the duration of the history and sample frequency is necessary. this trade-off will either hurt the resolution of low-frequency content or will alias high-frequencies. we attempt to instead explicitly model the unobserved states affecting the system. the objective of this learning problem is to predict y t , the helicopter's acceleration at time t, from an input vector u t containing the current measured state of the helicopter (its velocity and rotation rates) and the control commands. we use data collected by the stanford autonomous helicopter project (abbeel et al., 2010) . trajectories are split into 10 s long chunks and then randomly distributed into train, test, and validation sets according to the established protocol (abbeel et al., 2010; punjani & abbeel, 2015) and summarized in appendix a.1. the train, test, and validation sets respectively contain 466, 100, and 101 trajectories of 500 time-steps each. a simple success metric on a given trajectory is the root mean squared prediction error, where y (measured) t is the measured force from the dataset, y (pred) t is the force predicted by the model, and t is the number of time-steps in each trajectory. naive: we first consider a naive baseline that does not attempt to account for the time-varying nature of the fluidstate. we train a neural-network to map only the current helicopter state and control commands to the accelerations: y t = nn θn (u t ), where nn θn is a neural-network with parameters θ n . we refer to this model as the naive model. we also compare to the work of punjani & abbeel (2015) . they predict y t using a time-history u t−h:t of h = 25 lagged observations of the helicopter's measured state and control commands. this input is passed through a relu-activated neural network with a single hidden-layer combined with what they call a quadratic lag model. as a baseline, we reproduce their performance with a single deep neural network y t = nn θ h (u t−h:t ) with parameters θ h . we call this neural network model the h25 model. both of these models can be trained via stochastic gradient descent to minimize the mean-squared-error (mse) of their predictions for y. the optimization methodology for these models is described in appendix a.2. sid: as a third baseline, we compare with subspaceidentification methods (van overschee & de moor, 1994) . we letỹ t = y t − nn θn (u t ) be the prediction errors of the trained naive model. we use the matlab command n4sid to fit a linear dynamical system of the following form: here, x ∈ r d is the unobserved state with arbitrary dimension d. the learned parameters are θ s = [a s , b s , c s , d s ]. we use a state dimension of 10 and call this model the sid model. the n4sid algorithm scales super-linearly with the amount of data supplied, and thus we train on 10 randomly sampled subsets of 100 trajectories each, and report the distribution in prediction performance. this approach fits a linear system to the residual error of the naive model, therefore the prediction of y t obtained from the sid model is a nonlinear function of the states x t . we also train an lstm (hochreiter & schmidhuber, 1997 ) on the residual time-seriesỹ 1:t and u 1:t . we use ce-em to train a non-linear ssm. similar to the parameterization used for subpace-identification, we fit the prediction errors of the naive model using the following dynamical system: where nnθ nl is a neural network, and θ nl = [a nl , b nl , c nl , d nl ,θ nl ] are the learned parameters. we introduce non-linearity only in the observation function because it is known from koopman theory that a non-linear system can be approximated by a high-dimensional linear system provided the correct non-linear mapping between them (brunton et al., 2016) . while learning, we assume that both process and observation noise are distributed with diagonal gaussian covariance matrices σ w i and σ v i respectively. the values of σ w and σ v are treated as hyperparmeters of ce-em, and are both set to 1. here as well, we use a state dimension of 10 and call this model the nl model. the optimization methodology for this model is described in appendix a.2. it should be noted that the system we learn need not actually correspond to an interpretable model of the fluid-state, but only of time-varying hidden-states that are useful for predicting the accelerations of the helicopter. expert knowledge of helicopter aerodynamics could be used to further inform a gray-box model trained with ce-em. the test rmse of the naive, h25, and lstm models can be evaluated directly on the test trajectories using next-step prediction. however, the sid and nl models require an estimate of the unobserved state before making a prediction. the natural analog of next-step prediction is extended kalman filtering (ekf), during which states are recursively predicted and corrected given observations. at a given timestep, a prediction ofỹ t is made using the current estimate of x t , and is used in the computation of rmse. the stateestimate is then corrected with the measuredỹ t . figure 4a shows the rmse of the compared models on trajectories in the test-set. we see that the nl model is able to consistently predict the accelerations on the helicopter with better accuracy than any of the other models. the naive model performs on average 2.9 times worse than the h25 model, and its results can be found in appendix a.3. the lstm model also performs poorly, on average 1.4 times worse than the h25 model. the sid model notably outperforms the state-of-the-art h25 model, suggesting that a large linear dynamical system can be used to approximate a non-linear and partially observable system (korda & mezić, 2018) . however, introducing non-linearity as in the nl model noticeably improves performance. figure 4b depicts the errors in prediction over a sample trajectory in the test-set. here, we also see that the nl model is able to attenuate the time-varying error present in predictions made by the h25, suggesting that it has accurately characterized the dynamics of unobserved, time-varying states. this experiment validates the effectiveness of ce-em to identify a non-linear dynamical model of unobserved states that affect the forces acting an aerobatic helicopter. this paper presented an algorithm for system identification of non-linear systems given partial state observations. the algorithm optimizes system parameters given a time history of observations by iteratively finding the most likely state-history, and then using it to optimize the system parameters. the approach is particularly well suited for highdimensional and nearly deterministic problems. in simulated experiments on a partially observed system of coupled lorenz attractors, we showed that ce-em can perform identification on a problem that particle-based em methods are ill-suited for. however, we also find that ce-em yields biased parameter estimates in the presence of large process noise. this bias can be partially mitigated by locally approximating the posterior state-marginals as gaussian, as is done by map-em (goodwin & aguero, 2005) . we then used the algorithm to model the timevarying hidden-states that affect the dynamics of an aerobatic helicopter. the model trained with ce-em outperforms state-of-the-art methods because it is able to fit large non-linear models to unobserved states. numerous system-identification problems can be studied using ce-em. recently, there have been tremendous efforts to characterize predictive models for the spread of covid-19 (fanelli & piazza, 2020) . limited capacity for testing the prevalence of the disease makes relevant states partially observed, and thus ce-em may be useful for its modeling. we also hope to apply ce-em to very high-dimensional systems with sparsely coupled dynamics using general-form consensus optimization (boyd et al., 2011) . in this work we use the dataset gathered by abbeel et al. (2010) and available at http://heli.stanford. edu/. a gas-powered helicopter was flown by a professional pilot to collect a large dataset of 6290s of flight. there are four controls: the longitudinal and lateral cyclic pitch, the tail rotor pitch and the collective pitch. the state is measured thanks to an accelerometer, a gyroscope, a magnetometer and vision cameras. abbeel et al. (2010) provide the raw data, as well as states estimates in the earth reference frame obtained with extended kalman smoothing. following punjani & abbeel (2015) , we use the fused sensor data and downsample it from 100hz to 50hz. from the earth frame accelerations provided in the dataset, we compute body frame accelerations (minus gyroscopic terms) which are the prediction targets for our training. using the notations from punjani & abbeel (2015) , we can write the helicopter dynamics in the following form: where s ∈ r 13 is the helicopter state consisting of its position r, quaternion-attitude q, linear velocity v, angular velocity ω, and δ ∈ r 4 to be the control command. c 12 is the rotation-matrix from the body to earth reference frame, and f v and f ω are the linear and angular accelerations caused by aerodynamic forces, and are what we aim to predict. the above notation is related to that used in section 4.2 as follows: • we define u as the concatenation of all inputs to the model, including the relevant state variables v and ω and control commands δ. • we define y as the output predicted, which would correspond to a concatenation of f v and f ω . • we define x as the vector of unobserved flow states to be estimated and is not present in their model. the processed dataset used in our experiments can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo. 3662987 (menda et al., 2020) . neural networks in the naive and h25 models have eight hidden layers of size 32 each, and tanh non-linearities. we optimize these models using an adam optimizer (kingma & ba, 2015) with a harmonic learning rate decay, and minibatch size of 512. the neural network in the nl model has two hidden layers of size 32 each, and tanh non-linearity. we train the nl model with ce-em, using ρ x = ρ θ = 0.5, σ w = σ v = 1.0, and use an adam optimizer to optimize equation (11) in the learning step. the learning rate for dynamics parameters in θ nl is 5.0 × 10 −4 and observation parameters in θ nl is 1.0 × 10 −3 . for its relative robustness, we optimize equation (10) using a non-linear least squares optimizer with a trust-region reflective algorithm (jones et al., 2001-) in the smoothing step. this step can be solved very efficiently by providing the solver with the block diagonal sparsity pattern of the jacobian matrix. to evaluate the test metric, running an ekf is required. the output of an ekf depends on several user-provided parameters: • x 0 : value of the initial state • σ 0 : covariance of error on initial state • q: covariance of process noise • r: covariance of observation noise in this work, we assume that q, r and σ 0 are all set to the identity matrix. x 0 is assumed to be 0 on all dimensions. a well-tuned ekf with an inaccurate initial state value converges to accurate estimations in only a few time steps of transient behavior. since the h25 model needs 25 past inputs to predict its first output prediction, we drop the first 25 predictions from the ekf when computing rmse, thereby omitting some of the transient regime. autonomous helicopter aerobatics through apprenticeship learning generalized kalman smoothing: modeling and algorithms a recurrent neural network for modelling dynamical systems order within chaos: towards a deterministic approach to turbulence a new computationally efficient fixedinterval, discrete-time smoother nonlinear system identification: narmax methods in the time, frequency, and spatio-temporal domains distributed optimization and statistical learning via the scalable identification of partially observed systems with ce-em alternating direction method of multipliers. foundations and trends in machine learning koopman invariant subspaces and finite linear representations of nonlinear dynamical systems for control a classification em algorithm for clustering and two stochastic versions experiments in fixed-wing uav perching convergence of a stochastic approximation version of the em algorithm maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the em algorithm on sequential monte carlo sampling methods for bayesian filtering analysis and forecast of covid-19 spreading in china, italy and france implementing the nelder-mead simplex algorithm with adaptive parameters parameter estimation for linear dynamical systems learning nonlinear dynamical systems using an em algorithm monte carlo smoothing for nonlinear time series approximate em algorithms for parameter and state estimation in nonlinear stochastic models on the convergence of the block nonlinear gauss-seidel method under convex constraints a general framework for structured learning of mechanical systems structured mechanical models for robot learning and control survey of applications of identification in chemical and physical processes lstm can solve hard long time lag problems on resampling algorithms for particle filters from model-based control to datadriven control: survey, classification and perspective scipy: open source scientific tools for python on particle methods for parameter estimation in state-space models a method for stochastic optimization linear predictors for nonlinear dynamical systems: koopman operator meets model predictive control a method for the solution of certain nonlinear problems in least squares an efficient stochastic approximation em algorithm using conditional particle filters scalable identification of partially observed systems with ce-em backward simulation methods for monte carlo statistical inference. foundations and trends r in machine learning on the limited memory bfgs method for large scale optimization system identification perspectives on system identification deep lagrangian networks for end-to-end learning of energy-based control for under-actuated systems deep lagrangian networks: using physics as model prior for deep learning an algorithm for least-squares estimation of nonlinear parameters normalized stanford helicopter dataset nested sequential monte carlo methods a view of the em algorithm that justifies incremental, sparse, and other variants learning of skid-steered kinematic and dynamic models for motion planning deep learning helicopter dynamics models maximum likelihood estimates of linear dynamic systems system identification of nonlinear state-space models a primer on coordinate descent algorithms obstacles to high-dimensional particle filtering extended kalman filter for estimation of parameters in nonlinear state-space models of biochemical networks learning dynamical systems with particle stochastic approximation em learning nonlinear state-space models using smooth particle-filterbased likelihood approximations detecting strange attractors in turbulence a generalized eigenvalue approach for solving riccati equations n4sid: subspace algorithms for the identification of combined deterministicstochastic systems modeling dynamical systems by recurrent neural networks this work is supported in part by darpa under agreement number d17ap00032, and by the king abdulaziz city for science and technology (kacst) through the center of excellence in aeronautics and astronautics. the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of darpa or kacst. key: cord-018902-oninjtsn authors: kowalski, wladyslaw title: commercial buildings date: 2009-07-09 journal: ultraviolet germicidal irradiation handbook doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-01999-9_18 sha: doc_id: 18902 cord_uid: oninjtsn applications for uvgi systems in commercial buildings vary with the type of building, but virtually every type of building can benefit from the use of in-duct air disinfection and many buildings can benefit from the use of other types of uv systems. the health hazards and microbiological problems associated with various types of commercial buildings are often unique to the type of facility. the problem of air quality is paramount in commercial office buildings while the problem of biocontamination is of the highest concern in the food industry. other types of buildings have their own microbial concerns and even their own standards. the pharmaceutical industry has the highest aerobiological air quality standards (and lowest airborne microbial levels) while the other extreme, the agricultural industry, has the highest airborne microbial levels and unique aerobiological concerns. the individual problems of these facilities are addressed in the following sections, and industry experience relating to uv applications are discussed, along with recommendations for how uv systems can be applied. the specific types of uvgi systems are described in previous chapters and these should be referred to for detailed information on such applications. applications for uvgi systems in commercial buildings vary with the type of building, but virtually every type of building can benefit from the use of in-duct air disinfection and many buildings can benefit from the use of other types of uv systems. the health hazards and microbiological problems associated with various types of commercial buildings are often unique to the type of facility. the problem of air quality is paramount in commercial office buildings while the problem of biocontamination is of the highest concern in the food industry. other types of buildings have their own microbial concerns and even their own standards. the pharmaceutical industry has the highest aerobiological air quality standards (and lowest airborne microbial levels) while the other extreme, the agricultural industry, has the highest airborne microbial levels and unique aerobiological concerns. the individual problems of these facilities are addressed in the following sections, and industry experience relating to uv applications are discussed, along with recommendations for how uv systems can be applied. the specific types of uvgi systems are described in previous chapters and these should be referred to for detailed information on such applications. commercial buildings are the single largest and most common type of building in the united states today, in terms of total floor area. many common respiratory infections are regularly transmitted inside these structures due to daily occupancy and the extensive interaction of people within office buildings. proximity and duration of exposure are major factors in the transmission of respiratory infections between office workers (lidwell and williams 1961) . the risk of catching the common cold is increased by shared office space (jaakkola and heinonen 1995) . tuberculosis has also been show to transmit in office buildings between co-workers (kenyon et al. 2000 ). an association between respiratory tract symptoms in office workers and exposure to fungal and house dust mite aeroallergens was established by menzies et al. (1998) . the recent appearance of sars virus highlights the susceptibility of office workers to the spread of airborne viruses (yu et al. 2004) . sick building syndrome (sbs), often referred to as building related illness (bri) is a general category for a number of ailments, allergies, and complaints that are due to low levels of pollutants, synthetic irritants, fungi, bacteria or other factors that cause reactions in a certain fraction of building occupants (lundin 1991) . office buildings become contaminated with microbes brought in with the outside air as well as microbes that hail from indoor sources, including the occupants themselves. accumulation of microbes on the cooling coils and ductwork can contribute to indoor air quality problems (fink 1970) . the aerobiology of office buildings can depend on both indoor sources (i.e. occupancy and cleanliness) as well as the composition and concentration of microbes in the outdoor air. environmental microbes can enter via the ventilation system, via occupants (i.e. on clothes and shoes), and infiltration, especially from high-traffic lobbies that are under high negative pressure. office buildings provide an environment that sustains microorganisms long enough for them to transmit infections to new hosts, or sometimes allows them to persist indefinitely, as in the case of fungal spores (kowalski 2006) . the indoor airborne concentrations of bacteria and fungi increase with the presence of occupants, due to the fact that people release bacteria continuously and also because human activity stirs up dust that may contain fungi and bacteria. sessa et al. (2002) measured average office airborne concentrations of 493 cfu/m 3 for bacteria and 858 cfu/m 3 for fungi while levels were about four times lower when there were no occupants. most office buildings use dust filters in the merv 6-8 range to filter outdoor or recirculated air but these have a limited effect on reducing fungal spores, bacteria, and viruses. increasing filtration efficiency is one possible solution but retrofitting merv filters in the 9-13 range, which can be highly effective against most airborne pathogens and allergens, may be difficult in most buildings because of increased pressure losses and possible reduction in airflow (kowalski and bahnfleth 2002) . a suitable alternative to replacing filters is to add uv systems in the ductwork, which will not necessarily have any impact on airflow or pressure drop (see fig. 18 .1). in-duct uvgi is the most economic approach to disinfecting the air of commercial office buildings provided there is space in the ventilation system. the economics of in-duct air disinfection can be greatly improved by locating the uv lamps at or around the cooling coils, thereby disinfecting the coils and improving their heat transfer capabilities. cooling coils can first be steam cleaned to remove biological contamination and then a uvgi system can be added to continuously irradiate the coils. this not only prevents existing microbial growth but will tend to restore cooling coils to their original design operating level of performance, thereby saving energy costs (kelly 1999) . another alternative for improving air quality in office buildings and reducing the incidence of disease transmission between office workers is to locate recirculating uv units or upper room systems around the building to deal with local problems. lower room systems may also be used to control microbial contamination at floor level, especially in hallways or lobbies that see heavy foot traffic. other applications of uvgi in office buildings may include overnight decontamination of kitchens, bathrooms, and storage areas with uv area disinfection units. uvgi may not be a complete solution to aerobiological problems if the cause is due to some other factor like moisture or water damage. for more detailed information on dealing with air quality problems in office buildings see kowalski (2006) . industrial facilities cannot be generalized in terms of the types of respiratory diseases to which workers may be subject because of their wide variety. industrial facilities that handle organic materials have greater microbiological hazards while those that process inorganic products usually have less microbial hazards and more pollution hazards. pollution, however, is a contributing factor in infectious diseases, including respiratory diseases. there are many types of occupational diseases, including asthma, and allergic reactions or hypersensitivity pneumonitis, which are not necessarily due to microbiological causes. air disinfection systems that use uv have little or no effect on non-microbiological contaminants but if pathogens or allergens are the cause of the problem then uv systems may be applied to reduce the hazard. airborne particulate dust in industrial environments may contain organic materials, chemicals, microbes, biological compounds, or inert materials, and form a substrate on which microbes can grow. allergen-bearing airborne particulates are causative agents of lung inflammation via their immunotoxic properties and can induce inflammatory alveolitis (salvaggio 1994) . occupational asthma occurs in 2-6% of the asthmatic population and respiratory infection can be a predisposing factor for occupational asthma (bardana 2003) . workers who clean or enter rarely-used rodent infested structures may be at increased risk of exposure to rodentborne viruses such as hantavirus (armstrong et al. 1995) . industries that process wood or paper, or that make use of paper products, have airborne allergen hazards since cellulose provides a nutrient source for a variety of allergenic fungi. microbiological sampling in furniture factories found the most common airborne microorganisms included corynebacterium, arthrobacter, aspergillus, penicillium, and absidia (krysinska-traczyk et al. 2002) . microbiologial studies of the air in sawmills were conducted by dutkiewicz et al. (1996) , who found that the most common organisms were arthrobacter, corynebacterium, brevibacterium, microbacterium, bacillus spp., gram-negative bacteria (rahnella) and filamentous fungi (aspergillus, penicillium). inhalation anthrax and cutaneous anthrax still occur occasionally in the textile industry. in a mill in the usa where outbreaks had occurred, anthrax levels were measured at up to 300 cfu/m 3 (crook and swan 2001) . q fever, which can result from inhalation or exposure to coxiella burnetti, has been reported among workers in a wool and hair processing plant (sigel et al. 1950) . tuberculosis continues to be an occupational hazard in some parts of the world and is a growing problem elsewhere because of multi-drug resistance. in a study at russian plants by khudushina et al. (1991) the incidence of tuberculosis was highest at a foundry plant at 39.9 per 100,000 workers and in an automatic-assembly plant at 64.4 per 100,000 workers. health care workers, prison guards, and prison inmates may all be at higher risk for tuberculosis. a one-year prospective study of inmates in geneva showed that the prevalence of active and residual tuberculosis is 5-10 times higher among prisoners than in the general population (chevallay et al. 1983) . many prisons in the us incorporate filtration and uvgi systems to help control tuberculosis transmissions. occasional outbreaks of legionnaire's disease have continued to be sporadically reported in the work environment, including a large outbreak among exhibitors at a floral trade show where a whirlpool spa was on display (boshuizen et al. 2001) . water damage in any building increases the risk of workers to allergens if fungal mold growth has occurred. trout et al. (2001) documented extensive fungal contamination, including penicillium, aspergillus, and stachybotrys, in a water-damaged building. control measures for aerobiological contamination in the workplace are similar to those for any buildings in general, including improved air filtration, improved air distribution, and increased outside air combined with energy recovery systems. the use of uvgi for air disinfection can have positive benefits for almost any type of industrial building depending on the nature of the problem. in-duct uv air disinfection systems are likely to be the most economic recourse since they provide centralized control of the air quality, and can simultaneously be applied to the cooling coils (in most applications) to save energy while disinfecting the air. the use of local recirculation units can aid in resolving local microbial contamination problems, and both upper and lower room uvgi systems can be used to control biocontamination. the food industry comprises food and beverage processing facilities, food handling industries, food storage facilities other than agricultural, and kitchens in the restaurant and hospitality industry. there are at least four types of potential health hazards associated with food handling -foodborne human pathogens, spoilage microbes, microbial allergens, and food allergens. foodborne pathogens are generally transmitted by the oral route and almost exclusively cause stomach or intestinal diseases but some foodborne pathogens may be airborne at various stages of processing, storage, cooking, or consumption. the processing and handling of foods may also create opportunities for airborne mold spores to germinate and grow, resulting in secondary inhalation hazards. applications for uvgi in the food industry include both air and surface disinfection, including surface disinfection of packaging materials and food handling equipment. uv has been used for air and surface disinfection in cheese plants, bakeries, breweries, meat plants, for food preservation, and for the decontamination of conveyor surfaces, and packaging containers (koutchma 2008). one of the earliest applications of uv in the food industry involved the use of bare uv lamps to irradiate surfaces in the brewing and cheese making industries to control mold (philips 1985) . liquid food disinfection with uv has been approved by the fda but although uv has been highly effective for water disinfection, successful applications in disinfecting other liquids depends on the transmissivity of the liquid. the direct disinfection of food by uv is generally only effective in cases where only the surface of foodstuffs requires disinfection since uv has limited penetrating ability (fda 2000, yaun and summer 2002) . some foods can be effectively disinfected of certain food spoilage microbes, and uv is most effective on food products that have smooth and clean surfaces (shama 1999 , seiler 1984 . uv irradiation can significantly reduce the mold population on shells of eggs in only 15 min (kuo et al. 1997) . studies have demonstrated that uv can reduce levels of e. coli and salmonella on pork skin and muscle, listeria on chicken meat, and salmonella on poultry (wong et al. 1998 , kim et al. 2001 , wallner-pendleton et al. 1994 . begum et al. (2009) demonstrated that uv irradiation can inactivate food spoilage fungi like aspergillus, penicillium, and eurotium but that the type of surface impacted the degree of disinfection. marquenie et al. (2002) showed that botrytis cinerea and monilinia fructigena, two major post-harvest spoilage fungi of strawberries and cherries, could be reduced 3-4 logs by uv irradiation by doses of about 1000 j/m 2 . stevens et al. (1997) reported that uv could effectively reduce the incidence of storage rot disease on peaches due to monilinia fructicola, reduce green mold (penicillium digitatum) on tangerines, and reduce soft rot due to rhizopus on tomatoes and sweet potatoes. liu et al. (1993) showed that tomato diseases caused by alternaria alternata, botrytis cinerea, and rhizopus stolonifer were effectively reduced by uv treatment. hidaka and kubota (2006) demonstrated a 90% reduction of aspergillus and penicillium species on the surfaces of wheat grain. seiler (1984) reported increases in mold-free shelf life of clear-wrapped bakery products after moderate levels of uv exposure. treatment of baked loaves in uv conveyor belt tunnels resulted in significantly increased shelf life (shama 1999) . valero et al. (2007) found that uv irradiation of harvested grapes could prevent germination of fungi during storage or the dehydration process for raisins, using exposure times of up to 600 s. one specialized application of uv in the food industry involves overhead tank disinfection, in which the airspace at the top of a liquid storage tank is disinfected by uv to control bacteria, yeast, and mold spores. condensation of vapors in the head space of tanks, such as sugar syrup tanks, can produce dilute solutions on the liquid surface that provide ideal conditions for microbial growth. two types of tank top systems are in use -systems which draw the air through a filter and uv system and return sterilized air to the tank space, and systems in which uv lamps are located directly in the head space of the tank and irradiate the liquid surface and internal tank surfaces. see fig. 6 .6 in chap. 6 for an example of an overhead tank uv system. foodborne and waterborne pathogens represent the largest group of microorganisms that present health hazards in the food industry. in general, these do not present inhalation hazards, only ingestion hazards. however, some of these microbes can become airborne during processing and settle on foods, thereby becoming amenable to control by uv air and surface disinfection systems. modern foodborne pathogens are often uniquely virulent and hazardous, like salmonella and shigella, which are contagious and depend on either on excretion in feces or vomiting to facilitate epidemic spread. some agents of food poisoning, like staphylococcus and clostridium, are opportunistic or incidental contaminants of foods. many molds like aspergillus and penicillium are common contaminants of the outdoor and indoor air that can grow on food and although they are not food pathogens they are potential inhalation hazards for food industry workers. foodborne pathogens are predominantly bacteria but one virus has recently emerged and joined this class, norwalk virus. norwalk virus is a waterborne pathogen and has caused outbreaks on cruise ships (marks et al. 2000) . food spoilage microbes are less of a health hazard than they are a nuisance in the food industry because of the damage they can cause to processed food (samson et al. 2000) . a wide variety of yeasts may also be causes of spoilage. table 18 .1 lists the most common foodborne and waterborne pathogens in the food industry along with the type of hazard they present -pathogenic, toxic, allergenic, or spoilage. many of the species listed in table 18 .1 have uv rate constants as given in appendices a, b, and c. virtually all of the fungal spores listed in appendix c are potential contaminants in the food industry. toxins produced by microbes may be endotoxins, exotoxins, or mycotoxins, and these will grow only if the conditions (moisture, temperature, etc.) are right. the key to controlling these toxins is to control microbial growth and to control the concentration of microbes in the surrounding areas. ambient microbial levels can be controlled by food plant sanitation, adequate ventilation, and by various uv air disinfection technologies. most common food spoilage microbes have the capacity to transport in the air and therefore they are controllable to some degree by ventilation and by uv air disinfection systems. evidence exists to suggest listeria monocytogenes, a cause of many recent outbreaks, can settle on foodstuffs via the airborne route ( 1998) . studies indicate that salmonella can survive in air for hours (stersky et al. 1972 ). if air is recirculated through plant ventilation systems, organic material may accumulate inside ductwork and on air handling equipment, where fungi and bacteria may grow ( 1998). air filtration can go along way towards controlling the amount of organic debris that accumulates, but uv is an ideal technology for use in controlling microbial and fungal growth inside air handling units, ductwork, and on cooling coils. concerns about the breakage of bare uv lamps and mercury hazards has led to new lamps that are sealed in an unbreakable plastic coating, such as shown in fig. 18 .2. mold and biofilms can develop on surfaces and equipment in the food and beverage industry, including tanks and vats, cooking equipment, walls and floors, and cooling coils (carpentier and cerf 1993) . in general, standard cleaning and disinfection procedures are adequate to contain these problems but alternatives are available, including antimicrobial coatings like copper. uv irradiation of food processing equipment and surfaces, cooling coil disinfection systems, whole-area uv disinfection, and after-hours irradiation of rooms when personnel are not present are all viable options for maintaining high levels of disinfection in food industry facilities (philips 1985, kowalski and dunn 2002) . uv air disinfection systems may also be useful in controlling airborne hazards that result from hazards are created by industrial food processes that forcibly aerosolize contaminants. pulsed uv light has seen increasing application in the food industry because of its rapid disinfection capabilities -see chap. 16 for more information. educational facilities for children and students are focal points for disease transmission and as such they are ideally suited to uv applications that inhibit the transmission of contagious diseases. the concentration of young people in rooms causes cross-infections when even a single child comes to school with an infection such as a cold or a flu. inevitably children who attend school bring home contagious infections which are then transmitted to family members, thereby continuing the process of epidemic spread in the community. there are basically five types of educational facilities for children and students: day medical schools and colleges have also been subject to outbreaks of mumps and respiratory syncytial virus (rsv). table 18 .2 summarizes many of the various common infections that have been associated with school facilities, with reference sources as indicated. many of the microbes in table 18 .2 are susceptible to uv disinfection in air and on surfaces (see the uv rate constants for these species given in appendix a). fungal spores also accumulate in schools and are responsible for a variety of respiratory illnesses including allergies and asthma. the most frequently encountered fungal taxa identified in a study of dust samples from twelve schools in spain were alternaria, aspergillus, and penicillium (austin 1991) . guidelines for ventilation air in school buildings are provided in ashrae standard 62-2001 (ashrae 2001) but many schools do not meet the minimum recommendations either because the buildings are older or because of attempts to save energy costs due to endless budget cutting. one way to make up for the lack of ventilation air is to provide uv air disinfection systems, including upper room systems and in-duct uv systems. a number of studies have been performed in schools to evaluate the effectiveness of uvgi systems on respiratory infections in schools. all of these studies involved upper room systems (see chap. 9 for a summary of the results). most of the studies produced a reduction of disease transmission with a net average reduction in respiratory infections of approximately 30%, and were effective against measles, mumps, varicella, chickenpox, cold viruses and other respiratory infections. upper room systems can be especially effective in classrooms that have little of no ventilation air and that have high ceilings. there are no studies that have addressed in-duct uvgi systems, which would be likely to prove even more effective if they were adequately designed. materials and books that are kept in museums, libraries, and related archives may be both a source of allergens and a nutrient source for the growth of microorganisms, especially fungi. the growth of fungi and certain bacteria on stored materials contributes to biodeterioration, which is a major concern, and the aerobiology in bahlke (1949) museums and libraries may impact both the occupants as well as the stored materials. most books are made from cellulose and can be degraded by a variety of microbes and insects which may include allergens and a few potential pathogens. over 84 microbial genera, representing 234 species, have been isolated from library materials like books, paper, parchment, feather, textiles, animal and vegetable glues, inks, wax seals, films, magnetic tapes, microfilms, photographs, papyrus, wood, and synthetic materials in books (zyska 1997) . many of the fungi identified in library materials can produce mycotoxins and cause respiratory and other diseases. table 18 .3 summarizes the variety of microbes that have been found in libraries and museums, and indicates the type of materials that they can grow on. the term 'deteriogen' in the table refers to microbes that can cause biodeterioration of materials. libraries often use carpeting to quiet the noise of foot traffic, but carpets tend to accumulate fungi and bacteria over time due to the fact that they settle in air or are brought in from the outdoors on shoes and clothes. in one study of carpeted buildings, carpet dust was found to contain 85,000 cfu/gm of fungi, 12,000,000 cfu/gm of mesophilic bacteria, and 4,500 cfu/gm of thermophilic bacteria (cole et al. 1993) . foot traffic tends to aerosolize microbes and causes them to settle in other locations, including on books and materials. aerosolized microbes can also be inhaled, leading to allergies and asthma. carpets have a high equilibrium moisture content that favors microbial growth (iea 1996) . fabrics kept in museums, especially ancient cloth, are subject to biodeterioration from fungi and bacteria. fungi can grow extensively on cotton fibers at the right humidity and growth rates are highest on 100% cotton (goynes et al. 1995) . studies of biodeterioration caused by fungi that grow on paintings have isolated over one hundred species of fungi, with the most common species being alternaria, cladosporium, fusarium, aspergillus, trichoderma, and penicillium (inoue and koyano 1991) . ultraviolet light is an option for disinfecting surfaces and materials, but it can cause damage and discoloration to pigments and paint and therefore is not necessarily suitable for decontaminating books that are already damaged by microbial growth. uvgi is best used for disinfecting the air and especially for removing mold from air conditioning systems. in-duct uvgi can greatly aid in reducing airborne levels of bacteria and spores and in removing accumulated mold spores from air conditioning cooling coils, which are used extensively to control humidity in libraries and museums. keeping cooling coils disinfected will minimize the spread of spores through a building as well as reducing energy costs (see chap. 10). uvgi systems can be used selectively in areas of museums and libraries that do not contain sensitive materials, such as cafeterias. lower room uv systems may also be ideal for hallways and entryways (where no materials are stored) where outdoor spores may be tracked into buildings. for more detailed information on technologies and techniques for dealing with biocontamination of sensitive materials in libraries and museums see kowalski (2006) . agricultural facilities pose a variety of occupational microbial hazards including infectious diseases from farm animals, allergies from animal dander and foodstuffs, and health threats from mold spores or actinomycetes. animal facilities like barns, poultry houses, swine houses, and kennels can have the highest levels of bioaerosols seen in any indoor environments. animal facilities may also include non-agricultural buildings used to house or service animals such as pet shelters and zoos. many animal pathogens can transmit to humans by direct contact or by the airborne route. the microorganisms of greatest concern are those that can become airborne in animal facilities and these are often respiratory pathogens and allergens. allergens can be produced as a byproduct of animal husbanding or from animal waste, animal feeds, or other farm produce. the actinomycetes are particularly common type of bacteria found in agriculture and can grow on moldy hay. farmers may be routinely exposed to very high concentrations of actinomycetes and may inhale as many as 750,000 spores per minute (lacey and crook 1988 ). farmer's lung represents a group of respiratory problems that often afflict farm workers who receive chronic exposure to high concentrations of actinomycetes (pepys et al. 1963) . table 18 .4 lists some of the most common microorganisms that occur in animal and agricultural environments, and that can transmit to man by various routes. the diseases caused and natural source are identified. for information on the uv susceptibility of these microbes see appendices a, b, and c. most of these microbes can transmit by direct contact or by the airborne. table 18 .5 provides a list of microbes found in sewage, many of which can become airborne. natural ventilation is common in agricultural facilities but mechanical ventilation will generally provide superior control of airborne microorganisms. however, filtration is often necessary to clean both outdoor air and indoor recirculated air. recirculated air in animal facilities can be cleaned more effectively through the use of uvgi combined with filtration, and this approach works well for viruses, which may not filter out easily. other applications for uvgi in animal facilities include upper room systems, and area disinfection systems. after-hours uv disinfection systems are also appropriate for animal facilities provide the animals can be periodically removed from bacteria pathogen the indoor areas in order to disinfect them. such an approach can be more economical than scrubbing with disinfectants, and can enhance the effectiveness of manual scrubbing procedures. for more detailed information on dealing with the complex bioaerosol and dust problems in agricultural and animal facilities see kowalski (2006) . facilities like malls and airports are characterized by large enclosed volumes where large crowds may be concentrated and where heavy cyclical occupancy may occur. places of assembly may include auditoriums, stadiums, theaters, gymnasiums, natatoriums, arenas, town halls, churches, cathedrals, temples, mosques, industrial halls, convention centers, atriums, shopping centers, and other places where large public gatherings may occur indoors. in such buildings infectious diseases may be exchanged by direct contact, indirect contact, or via inhalation, and large numbers of people may be exposed simultaneously. the large volumes of air enclosed in such facilities often ensure good mixing of air, even in naturally ventilated stadiums, and as a result the air quality is often acceptable. however, it is difficult to provide ventilation to all corners and therefore the actual airflow distribution is often uncertain. one of the most famous outbreaks of a respiratory disease in a heavily occupied building was the eponymous legionnaire's disease outbreak at a convention in philadelphia in 1976 that resulted in 29 deaths (spengler et al. 2001) . it was traced to legionella contamination in a cooling tower that apparently wafted from outdoors into a crowded hallway through open doors. an outbreak of measles occurred inside a domed stadium in the minneapolis-st. paul metropolitan area during july 1991 that resulted in sixteen associated cases of measles in seven states (ehresmann et al. 1995) . several tuberculosis outbreaks have occurred in churches and mosques due to a single infectious person. dutt et al. (1995) reports one outbreak of tb in a church where one man exposed 42% of his congregation. a norovirus outbreak at a concert hall was reviewed by evans et al. (2002) in which a concert attendee who vomited in the auditorium and a toilet. gastrointestinal illness occurred among members of school children who attended the following day. transmission was most likely through direct contact with contaminated fomites that remained in the toilet area. large facilities that use 100% outside air provide little or no opportunity for the use of uv systems, since outside air is generally clean and free of airborne pathogens, but facilities that recirculate air may benefit from in-duct uv air disinfection systems. large facilities often have high ceilings and this provides an opportunity to use upper room systems for air disinfection, especially in cases where natural ventilation is employed and there is no other means for disinfecting the air. high power uv systems can be safely used in such applications since the uv lamps can be located far from the occupied floor areas. the use of uv area disinfection systems in public toilets is an appropriate means of dealing with potential fomites, or infectious particles left on surfaces. aircraft, trains, cars, and other compact enclosed environments can pose microbiological hazards from extended exposure due to the fact that risks due to proximity are increased regardless of whether the pathogen transmits through the air or by direct contact. large cruise ships may resemble hotels and apartment buildings in terms of their ventilation systems and health risks but smaller craft like cars and planes create extended opportunities for infectious exchanges due to the close quarters, shared breathing air, potentially extended periods of occupancy, and the limited amount of outside air that may be brought in, especially in cold climates. other microenvironments like elevators and city buses are unlikely to play a major role in the spread of contagious diseases due to their brief occupancy times. aircraft are one of the most crowded environments in which people remain for extended periods of time and the potential for airborne disease transmission is fairly obvious, except perhaps to airline owners who fly in private jets. airplanes are potential vectors for the transmission of airborne diseases between continents and play a role in the global dissemination of epidemic diseases (masterson and green 1991) . airline crews and passengers have a higher risk of contracting infections on long flights (nrc 2002, ungs and sangal 1990) . respiratory pathogens that have been identified onboard airlines include adenovirus, chickenpox, coronavirus, influenza, measles, mumps, mycobacterium tuberculosis, neisseria meningitidis, and sars virus (kowalski 2006) . it has been reported that 85% of newer airplanes have hepa filters (gao 2004) . however, there is a common practice in the industry of referring to merv 14 filters (95% dsp filters) as 'hepa-like' or 'hepa type' filters, which is misleading. merv 14 filters, while being excellent filters for controlling spores and most bacteria, cannot guarantee protection against viruses and smaller bacteria. coupling a merv 14 filter with a uvgi system can, however, can provide superior performance (kowalski and bahnfleth 2002) . furthermore, the energy costs associated with using hepa filters may not be justified when a simple combination of a merv 13-15 filter and an urv 13-15 uvgi system will provide comparable results at lower cost. uvgi systems can be installed in the recirculation ducts of airplanes as well as being located at individual seats (in the overhead 'gaspers'). the transmission of infectious disease aboard ships is a recurring phenomenon, with onboard transmission of some diseases such as norwalk virus and legionnaire's disease being favored. the incidence of respiratory disease aboard military ships increases as ship size decreases (blood and griffith 1990) . a study of a tuberculosis outbreak aboard a navy ship found that although proximity and direct contact played a role in transmission, airborne transmission of droplet nuclei, including via the ventilation system, was responsible for most of the secondary infections (kundsin 1980) . it is common for outbreaks aboard ships to consist of multiple viral and bacterial infections, including diarrheal illness and influenza (ruben and ehreth 2002) . noroviruses are responsible for 23 million cases of illness each year and norwalk viruses have recently caused numerous outbreaks of gastroenteritis on cruise ships. they are largely attributed to fomites on ship surfaces. during 2002, cruise ships with foreign itineraries sailing into us ports reported 21 gastroenteritis outbreaks on 17 cruise ships, of which most were identified as noroviruses (cramer et al. 2003) . in an influenza outbreak aboard a cruise ship from hong kong in 1987, 38% of passengers came down with acute respiratory illnesses (berlingberg et al. 1988) . uv applications for ships include in-duct uv systems to interdict recirculated pathogens and allergens, and surface irradiation systems to control fomites. noroviruses may be particularly susceptible to after hours uv systems placed in hallways, bathrooms, and other locations where occupancy is intermittent. cruise ships can also be irradiated and decontaminated between voyages by portable uv systems. most of the microorganisms associated with waste are either water borne or food borne pathogens and allergens and workers in sewage, wastewater, and waste processing industries are subject to occupational hazards from these microbes. airborne hazards also exist since aerosolization of microbial pathogens, endotoxins, and allergens is an inevitable consequence of the generation and handling of waste material. table 18 .4 lists the most common microorganisms that have been found to grow or to occur in sewage and waste (kowalski 2006) . many of these are human pathogens and they include bacteria, viruses, fungi, and protozoa. for information on the uv susceptibility of these pathogens refer to appendix a, which addresses most of these species. many of these species are potentially airborne and can cause respiratory infections, while most of the remainder are either waterborne or foodborne stomach pathogens. wastewater treatment workers are exposed to a variety of infectious agents and khuder et al. (1998) examined the prevalence of infectious diseases and associated symptoms in wastewater treatment workers over a 12-month period. the wastewater workers exhibited a significantly higher prevalence of gastroenteritis, gastrointestinal symptoms, and headaches over those in a control group but no significant differences were found with regard to respiratory and other symptoms. thorn et al. (2002) , however, found that sewage workers had significantly increased risks for respiratory symptoms, including chronic bronchitis, and toxic pneumonitis, as well as central nervous system problems, over workers in non-sewage industries. reduction of microbial hazards in the sewage and waste industries is probably best approached using source control methods, but there are potential applications for uvgi. in-duct air disinfection can promote healthier breathing air for workers inside plants and both upper room and lower room uvgi systems can provide disinfection of both air and surfaces where mold and bacteria may accumulate. area disinfection systems, like after-hours uv systems, may also provide a means of decontaminating areas during periods when they are not occupied (i.e. overnight). hantavirus pulmonary syndrome associated with entering or cleaning rarely used, rodentinfested structures standard 62: ventilation for acceptable indoor air quality pathogens in the environment effect of ultra-violet irradiation of classrooms on spread of mumps and chickenpox in large rural central schools occupational asthma and allergies rhinovirus infections in nursery school children inactivation of food spoilage fungi by ultraviolet (uvc) irradiation listeria: a practical approach to the organism and its control in foods acute respiratory illness among cruise ship passengers -asia epidemiology of adenovirus-associated virus infection in a nursery population ship size as a factor in illness incidence among u.s. navy vessels subclinical legionella infection in workers near the source of a large outbreak of legionnaires disease prevalence of mycoplasma pneumoniae in children in diyarbakir, the south-east of turkey biofilms and their consequences, with particular reference to hygiene in the food industry epidemiology of pulmonary tuberculosis in the prison environment biocontaminants in carpeted environments outbreaks of gastroenteritis associated with noroviruses on cruise ships -united states bacteria and other bioaerosols in industrial workplaces high pharyngeal carriage rates of streptococcus pyogenes in dunedin school children with a low incidence of rheumatic fever microflora of the air in sawmills as a potential occupational hazard: concentration and composition of microflora and immunologic reactivity of workers to microbial aeroallergens outbreak of tuberculosis in a church an outbreak of measles at an international sporting event with airborne transmission in a domed stadium an outbreak of viral gastroenteritis following environmental contamination at a concert hall ultraviolet radiation for the processing and treatment of food. food and drug administration mold in air conditioner causes pneumonitis in office workers more research needed on the effects of air quality on airliner cabin occupants seroepidemiological studies on the occurrence of common respiratory infections in paediatric student nurses and medical technology students a study of whooping cough epidemic outbreak in castellon biodeterioration of nonwoven fabrics prospective study of respiratory infections at the u.s. naval academy silent passage of echo virus type 20 together with dyspepsia coli strains in a day nursery school study on the sterilization of grain surface using uv radiationdevelopment and evaluation of uv irradiation equipment an outbreak of scarlet fever, impetigo and pharyngitis caused by the same streptococcus pyogenes type t4m4 in a primary school heat and moisture transfer: international energy agency pleurodynia among football players at a high school. an outbreak associated with coxsackievirus b1 fungal contamination of oil paintings in japan shared office space and the risk of the common cold frequency of serological evidence of bordetella infections and mixed infections with other respiratory pathogens in university students with cough illnesses shedding some light on iaq transmission of mycobacterium tuberculosis among employees in a us government office prevalence of infectious diseases and associated symptoms in wastewater treatment workers the optimal system of ambulatory examination of groups with high risk of tuberculosis at a large industrial plant transmission of mycobacterium tuberculosis among high school students in korea effects of uv irradiation on selected pathogens in peptone water and on stainless steel and chicken meat current trends in uvgi air and surface disinfection merv filter models for aerobiological applications aerobiological engineering handbook: a guide to airborne disease control technologies exposure to airborne microorganisms in furniture factories airborne contagion uv irradiation of shell eggs: effect on populations of aerobes, molds, and inoculated salmonella typhimurium fungal and actinomycete spores as pollutants of the workplace and occupational illness the epidemiology of the common cold application of ultraviolet-c light on storage rots and ripening of tomatoes on building-related causes of the sick building syndrome evidence for airborne transmission of norwalk-like virus (nlv) in a hotel restaurant inactivation of conidia of botrytis cinerea and monilinia fructigena using uv-c and heat treatment dissemination of human pathogens by airline travel pharyngitis associated with herpes simplex virus in college students aeroallergens and workrelated respiratory symptoms among office workers illness among schoolchildren during influenza season: effect on school absenteeism, parental absenteeism from work, and secondary illness in families the airliner cabin environment and the health of passengers and crew rheumatic fever-is it still a problem? farmer's lung: thermophilic actinomycetes as a source effect of ultra-violet irradiation of classrooms on the spread of measles in large rural central schools public health management of an outbreak of group c meningococcal disease in university campus residents maritime health: a case for preventing influenza on the high seas inhaled particles and respiratory disease introduction to food and airborne fungi prevalence, rate of persistence and respiratory tract symptoms of chlamydia pneumoniae infection in 1211 kindergarten and school age children preservation of bakery products microbiological indoor air quality in healthy buildings ultraviolet light q fever in a wool and hair processing plant indoor air quality handbook viability of airborne salmonella newbrunswick under various conditions integration of ultraviolet (uv-c) light with yeast treatment for control of post harvest storage rots of fruits and vegetables work related symptoms among sewage workers: a nationwide survey in sweden bioaerosol lung damage in a worker with repeated exposure to fungi in a water-damaged building flight crews with upper respiratory tract infections: epidemiology and failure to seek aeromedical attention effect of germicidal uvc light on fungi isolated from grapes and raisins foreign body prevention, detection and control the use of ultraviolet radiation to reduce salmonella and psychrotrophic bacterial contamination on poultry carcasses tb in leicester: out of control, or just one of those things reduction of escherichia coli and salmonella senftenberg on pork skin and pork muscle using ultraviolet light efficacy of ultraviolet treatments for the inhibition of pathogens on the surface of fresh fruits and vegetables evidence of airborne transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome virus strains of parainfluenza virus type 4, isolated in a day nursery fungi isolated from library materials: a review of the literature key: cord-032492-2av9kl1c authors: feldman, sue s.; hikmet, neset; modi, shikha; schooley, benjamin title: impact of provider prior use of hie on system complexity, performance, patient care, quality and system concerns date: 2020-09-23 journal: inf syst front doi: 10.1007/s10796-020-10064-x sha: doc_id: 32492 cord_uid: 2av9kl1c to date, most hie studies have investigated user perceptions of value prior to use. few studies have assessed factors associated with the value of hie through its actual use. this study investigates provider perceptions on hie comparing those who had prior experience vs those who had no experience with it. in so doing, we identify six constructs: prior use, system complexity, system concerns, public/population health, care delivery, and provider performance. this study uses a mixed methods approach to data collection. from 15 interviews of medical community leaders, a survey was constructed and administered to 263 clinicians. descriptive statistics and analysis of variance was used, along with tukey hsd tests for multiple comparisons. results indicated providers whom previously used hie had more positive perceptions about its benefits in terms of system complexity (p = .001), care delivery (p = .000), population health (p = .003), and provider performance (p = .005); women providers were more positive in terms of system concerns (p = .000); patient care (p = .031), and population health (p = .009); providers age 44–55 were more positive than older and younger groups in terms of patient care (p = .032), population health (p = .021), and provider performance (p = .014); while differences also existed across professional license groups (physician, nurse, other license, admin (no license)) for all five constructs (p < .05); and type of organization setting (hospital, ambulatory clinic, medical office, other) for three constructs including system concerns (p = .017), population health (p = .018), and provider performance (p = .018). there were no statistically significant differences found between groups based on a provider’s role in an organization (patient care, administration, teaching/research, other). different provider perspectives about the value derived from hie use exist depending on prior experience with hie, age, gender, license (physician, nurse, other license, admin (no license)), and type of organization setting (hospital, ambulatory clinic, medical office, other). this study draws from the theory of planned behavior to understand factors related to physicians’ perceptions about hie value, serving as a departure point for more detailed investigations of provider perceptions and behavior in regard to future hie use and promoting interoperability. health information exchange (hie) has been described in various ways in the literature, but is generally understood as the act of health information sharing, facilitated by computing infrastructure, that is conducted across affiliated physicians' offices, hospitals, and clinics; or between completely disparate health systems (furukawa et al. 2013) . hie across disparate systems allows clinical information to follow patients as they move across different care settings, whether or not each organization shares an affiliation. this might include a hospital connected to an hie that is, in turn, connected to other forprofit and not-for-profit hospitals, private practices, and clinics. hie is expected to transform the nation's healthcare system through access to patient data from electronic health records to support care provision and coordination and improve care quality and population health (berwick et al. 2008) . health information exchange has also been described in terms of the organizational and technical environment facilitating hie. in this paper, hie is the act of exchanging health information facilitated by a health information exchange organizational and technical environment. while expectations and promises are high, still relatively little is known about the real and perceived value of hie by providers, and how to accomplish large-scale acceptance and use. it has been reported that about two-thirds of hospitals and almost half of physician practices are now engaged in some type of hie with outside organizations (rahurkar et al. 2015) . relatively few of the more than 100 operational u.s. health information exchanges have been the subject of published evaluations (rudin et al. 2014) . after more than a decade of hie hype, utilization by users is still relatively low. a review of hie past research indicated that most studies reported use of hie in 2% to 10% of encounters (rudin et al. 2014 ). further, findings from a review of research on hie sustainability suggest that just one quarter of existing hie organizations consider themselves financially stable (rudin et al. 2014) . a systematic review of hie studies suggests that study stakeholders claim to value hie. yet, the effects on a wide range of outcomes are still unknown (rudin et al. 2014) , and little generalizable evidence currently exists regarding sustainable benefits attributable to hie (rahurkar et al. 2015) . some have noted the potential for widespread hie adoption to reduce the utilization and cost of healthcare services richardson 2001) , though empirical evidence is limited (bailey et al. 2013; fontaine et al. 2010) . continued research is needed to understand the factors associated with adoption and use of such a promising, yet underutilized technology. to date, most hie studies have investigated user perceptions of value prior to use, and the intention to use. few studies have assessed factors associated with the value of hie through its actual use. this study investigates provider perspectives on hie comparing those who had prior experience vs those who have only heard of hie, but not yet had experience with it. the purpose of this study is to investigate provider perceptions about hie, comparing those who have used hie to those who have not used hie and how perceptions differ. the objectives of this study are to explore demographic differences in perceptions across different types of providers, assessing several important factors related to the adoption of health it. literature has determined that factors associated with perceived benefits and challenges of health it adoption and use include: 1) the extent to which users perceive a system to be complex vs easy to use (davis 1989; gadd et al. 2011) , 2) technical standards and business concerns that act as barriers to system use (rudin et al. 2014) , 3) the perceived effects that using a system (and its information) has on public or population health (zech et al. 2015; shapiro et al. 2011; hincapie and warholak 2011; hessler et al. 2009; dobbs et al. 2010) , 4) the perceived effects that using a system (and its information) has on patient care delivery (frisse et al. 2012; furukawa et al. 2013; kaelber and bates 2007) , and 5) the perceived effects that using a system (and its information) has on provider performance (davis 1989) . we review these factors below as well as the literature on prior use of an information system: or the effect of prior use vs nonuse on perceptions and expectations of a system. prior use of an information system has been found to be associated with the intention to use them in the future (jackson et al. 1997; agarwal and prasad 1999) . prior it usage behavior tends to be a significant determinant of future usage intention and/or behavior (jasperson et al. 2005) . prior behavior helps form habit, which induces future behavior in an unthinking, automated, or routinized manner, rather than through a conscious process of cognitive or normative evaluation (eagly and chaiken 1993; triandis 1977) . accordingly, future behavior can be viewed as a joint outcome of behavioral intention and habit. though the indirect effects of prior use have seen little investigation in the literature, preliminary evidence to that effect has been reported (taylor and todd 1995a, b) . these authors argued that as individuals gain familiarity with using a given technology (by virtue of prior use), they tend to focus less attention on the amount of effort needed to use the technology, and more on ways in which the technology can be leveraged to improve their job performance and outcomes. the familiarity with the technology gained from prior usage experience and the knowledge gained from learning-by-doing allows users to form a more accurate and informed opinion of the true performance benefits of the target system and its relevance to their job performance. hence, users' performance expectancy tends to become stronger as their prior use of technology increases. we extend this line of reasoning for business information systems to the case of providers' use of health information technology, or in this case, hie. hie is particularly interesting as a unique and differing context from business due to the multi-organizational, distributed, and shared healthcare information technology setting. perceived system complexity, or the degree to which a person believes that using a particular information system would be difficult vs easy or free of effort, has long been used as a construct to assess user acceptance of information technologies (davis 1989) . studies on ease of use have included a range of health information technologies including electronic health records (ehr) (dünnebeil et al. 2012; hennington and janz 2007) , telemedicine (hu et al. 1999) , clinical information systems (paré et al. 2006) , and others. many studies on hie ease of use have focused on the perceptions of prospective users not currently using hie. in one such study, 74.4% of physicians interested in hie, but not currently engaging in hie, perceived that using hie would be easy . in contrast, 37.1% of physicians not interested in hie perceived that using hie would be easy ). in the past, ease of use of hie has been positively predictive of system adoption and usage , and has shown to impact successful retrieval of patient information that affected patient care (genes et al. 2011) . of significant importance for this study is understanding perceived ease of use from users who have actually used hie vs. those who have not. some past studies have found several concerns that providers have in terms of using hie. a meta-analysis of 38 studies showed that stakeholders consider hie to be valuable, but barriers include technical performance, workflow issues, and privacy concerns (rudin et al. 2014) . concerns also include limits on the amount and type of information that providers want to use , and general fears of information overload from ill designed systems and/or utilization of duplicate or seemingly "competing" information systems (rudin et al. 2014) . for example, in one study, quality assurance (qa) reports generated by a health information exchange for medical practices was reported as the least valued system function due to skepticism about report validity and concerns that reports would reflect negatively on providers . another study found that hie usage was lower in the face of time constraints, questioning whether hie may be considered an information burden rather than a help to users vest and miller 2011) . time constraints, especially in primary and emergency care, have also tended to be a cause for concern in engaging in hie. mixed results from hie evaluations have further raised concerns about its utility. for example, one study found that increased hie adoption has been associated with reduced rates of laboratory testing for primary and specialist providers (ross et al. 2013 ). yet, in the same study, imputed charges for laboratory tests did not shift downward (ross et al. 2013) . this evidence led us to include health information exchange system concerns as an important construct for hie provider perceptions and usage. prior studies have indicated the potential for hie to aid in a range of population health and care coordination activities, care quality, and timely health maintenance and screening. in one study, hie was shown to enable identification of specific patient populations, such as homeless (zech et al. 2015) , and those who have chronic or high risk health conditions ). however, not all studies have showed significant results related to population and patient health outcomes (hincapie and warholak 2011) . the authors in one study concluded that hie usage was unlikely to produce significant direct cost savings, yet also noted that economic benefits of hie may reside instead in other downstream outcomes such as better informed and higher overall quality care delivery (ross et al. 2013) . broader hie impacts include positive relationships with public health agencies (hessler et al. 2009 ), improved public health surveillance (dobbs et al. 2010) , and increased efficiency and quality of public health reporting ). thus, we assess user perceptions of the impact of hie on public/population health. the extent to which hie impacts the delivery of patient care has been addressed in prior studies. more generally, the timely sharing of patient clinical information has been shown to improve the accuracy of diagnoses, reduce the number of duplicative tests, prevent hospital readmissions, and prevent medication errors furukawa et al. 2013; kaelber and bates 2007; yaraghi 2015; eftekhari et al. 2017) . for hie specifically, usage has been associated with decreased odds of diagnostic neuroimaging and increased adherence with evidence-based guidelines (bailey et al. 2013 ). these include timelier access to a broader range of patient interactions with the healthcare system (unertl et al. 2013) , improved coordination of care and patient health outcomes for human immunodeficiency virus patients (shade et al. 2012) , and positive patient perceptions of the impact on care coordination (dimitropoulos et al. 2011) . providers continue to engage in hie with the belief that care delivery will improve (cochran et al. 2015) . further, benefits have been noted for specific care settings. emergency department access to hie has been associated with a cost savings due to reductions in hospital admissions, head and body ct use, and laboratory test ordering . further, hie has been associated with faster outside information access, and faster access was associated with changes in ed care including shorter ed visit length (52.9 min shorter), lower likelihood of imaging (by 2.5, 1.6, and 2.4 percentage points for ct, mri, and radiographs, respectively), lower likelihood of admission (2.4%), and lower average charges ($1187 lower) (p ≤ .001 for all) (everson et al. 2016) . provider perceptions about the positive effects hie has on patient care delivery may be the strongest motivating factor for its adoption. for example, in one study, physicians most agreed that the potential benefits of hie lie in care quality and were least worried about the potential for decreases in revenues resulting from the technology (lee et al. 2012) . a study that looked at perspectives of home healthcare providers indicated a decrease in ed referral rates with hie (vaidya et al. 2012) . in another study, looking up clinical information (test results, clinic notes, and discharge summaries) on a patientby-patient basis was found to be the most valued function for hie users, followed closely by the delivery of test results, for the care of patients ). as such, perceived impact of hie on care delivery is included as a dependent variable. one expected outcome of using hie is that a performance improvement would occur. perceived usefulness is defined here as "the degree to which a person believes that using a particular system would enhance his or her job performance." (davis 1989) in sum, when a system is perceived to be useful, users believe positive performance will result. prior hie studies have shown that certain medical information is perceived to be more useful than others. one prior study found that physicians expressed agreement that hie is useful for pathology and lab reports, medication information, and diagnoses with chief complaints (lee et al. 2012 ). however, they expressed less agreement regarding the need for patient data items, functional test images and charts, care plans at the referring clinic/hospital, or duration of treatment (lee et al. 2012) . different studies reported that providers expected hie data would be useful to improve completeness and accuracy of patients' health records, efficiency with which clinical care is delivered, quality and safety of care, communication with other providers and coordination and continuity of care cochran et al. 2015) . prior studies have also indicated that quality patient information is believed to impact the elimination of duplicated medication as well as lab and imaging tests, prevention of drug-drug interactions, better decision making on the care plan and expedited diagnoses, and better ability to explain care plans to patients (lee et al. 2012) . physicians have noted that data gaps, such as missing notes, adequacy of training (cochran et al. 2015) , and timely availability of information (melvin et al. 2016 ) may pose a significant challenge to future hie usage (rudin et al. 2011) . while these perceptions of usefulness are important relative to expected hie use and resulting provider performance, we see expected and actual system use as scenarios that could potentially result in contrasting viewpoints. perceptions of provider performance that result from actual use of hie may provide a more real-to-life assessment. the objectives of this study are to explore demographic differences in perceptions across different types of providers, assessing several important factors related to the adoption of health it. our hypothesis is that provider age, gender, type of licensure (i.e., doctors, nurses), provider organizational setting (hospital, private practice), role in an organization (administration, patient care), and prior experience using hie are factors that affect provider perceptions about hie. for example, lee and colleagues (lee et al. 2012) found that different physician practice settings significantly influenced individual user perceptions. based on this information, this study is addressing differences in provider perceptions for different hie related constructs described above. the above research question was empirically tested using a field survey of practicing health providers in the state of virginia, usa. the specific technology examined was health information exchange and the action examined was hie. in march 2010, the office of the national coordinator for health it (onc) awarded a state cooperative agreement to the virginia department of health (vdh) to govern statewide hie. in september 2011, community health alliance (cha) was awarded a contract from vdh to build the virginia statewide health information exchange; connectvirginia was subsequently initiated to accomplish this goal. statewide health information exchanges were regarded as an organizational structure to provide a variety of mechanisms to enable hie using standardized technologies, tools, and m e t h o d s . d u r i n g t h e 2 7 -m o n t h s t u d y p e r i o d , connectvirginia designed, tested, developed, and implemented three technical exchange services: connectvirginia direct messaging (a secure messaging system), connectvirginia exchange (the focus of this study), and a public health reporting pathway. connectvirginia exchange is a query/retrieve service in which a deliberate query passively returns one or more standardized continuity of care documents (ccds) that provide a means of sharing standardized health data between organizations on-boarded and connected to connectvirginia. the health information exchange design was based on a secure means to exchange patient information between providers via direct messaging, a secure means for query and retrieval of patient information via exchange, and a secure means for public health reporting. consistent with other health information exchange developments, a standardized product development lifecycle was used to create and implement the system. connectvirginia's direct and exchange protocols were originally established by onc and used as a method to standardize hie of secure messages and ccds. similar to the original nationwide health information exchange (nwhin) connect's exchange, connectvirginia's exchange involves pulling information by providers from an unfamiliar healthcare facility. connectvirginia's direct is a simplified version of the connect software that allows simple exchange of basic information between providers (dimick 2010) . the public health reporting pathway was established using secure file transport protocols. a survey questionnaire was developed and administered to physicians, dentists, nurse practitioners, registered nurses, physician assistants, and nurse midwives in virginia. we evaluated user perceptions of the hie using selected survey items. each clinician was given a summary of the study, the study protocol, consent procedure, and were notified that the research had been approved by the institutional review board of the lead researcher's university. each participant consented to participate and was assured their responses would be anonymous. the survey had three sections: (1) demographics (age, job, gender) and system usage characteristics; (2) familiarity with technology; and (3) user perceptions across an author generated scale inclusive of the following constructs: system complexity, health information exchange system concerns, provider performance, patient care, and population care. a panel of experts reviewed items for face validity. we collected responses for all items on a scale of 1 to 4 from strongly agree (1) to strongly disagree (4). participants could also leave comments in several sections. purposive sampling was used to invite individuals, key informants, and thought leaders in the medical community to participate in 60-min interviews. fifteen interviews were conducted. from these interviews, a survey was created and administered to physicians, dentists, nurse practitioners, registered nurses, physician assistants, and nurse midwives. the sample was achieved from multiple sampling sources including two state medical societies and through a virginia medical providers e-rewards panel. e-rewards, a research now company, is one of the leading providers of online sampling in the u.s. product research industry. surveys were conducted via two channels: telephone and internet. e-rewards surveys were conducted by experienced telephone surveyors. in order to avoid survey bias, online and telephone surveys rotated questions. the goal was to achieve 250 usable responses. over a 4-week period, invitations to participate in the survey and the survey link were distributed in monthly newsletters to qualified members of the medical society of virginia (11,000 members) and the old dominion medical society. old dominion medical society did not disclose the total number of members. this resulted in 125 surveys, of which 113 were usable. e-rewards panel members were called until 150 completed and usable surveys were accomplished. combined, this yielded in 263 usable surveys. ibm spss data collection was used to create and administer the survey online. data were collected from may through june 2012. all surveys collected through telephone were entered into the online survey system as responses were collected. data were analyzed from the online and telephone versions of the survey together. internal reliability of the scale was calculated using cronbach's alpha and used the statistical package ibm spss v. 22 for quantitative analyses. descriptive statistics were compared across demographics and usage characteristics. data were summarized using mean, median, and sd, and a sign test was used to determine if individual subscale items were significantly different from neutral. to determine the effects of our independent variables (prior use, gender, age, professional license, role in the organization, type of organization) on our dependent outcomes, an analysis of variance (anova) was used along with tukey hsd tests for multiple comparisons. the five constructs of interest to this study were health information exchange system complexity, system concerns, public/ population health, care delivery, and provider performance. each construct was measured using multiple-item survey questions, adapted from prior research, and reworded to reflect the current context of providers hie usage. the complete item scales are provided in table 1 . system complexity was measured using four likert-scaled items adapted from davis' perceived usefulness scale (perceived usefulness is also referred to as performance expectancy in the information technology usage literature) (davis 1989 ). perceptions about system concerns were measured using items modified from taylor and todd (taylor and todd 1995a, b) . the effect of hie on patient care delivery, public/population health, and provider performance was measured using investigator developed likert-scaled items guided by literature review. prior hie usage was measured using three items similar to thompson et al. (thompson et al. 1994 ) that asked subjects whether they had previously or currently used the system. we did not have access to actual system-recorded usage data, and thus, self-reported usage data was employed as a proxy for actual recorded usage. since the usage items were in the "yes/ no" format, in contrast to likert scales for other perceptual constructs, common method bias was not expected to be significant. we assess demographic factors including participant gender, age, and professional license (physician, nurse, other, administrative); role in the organization (patient care, administration, teaching/research, other); and type of organization (hospital, ambulatory clinic, medical office, other). these were all determined via selectable items in the instrument. each of the five constructs were tested for their reliability, or the extent to which each represents a consistent measure of a concept. cronbach's alpha was used to measure the strength of consistency. results of validation testing were found to be strong for patient care (0.82), provider performance (.90), and population care (.78); and moderate for system complexity (.62) and system concerns (.64). among responses, 207 physicians indicated they had used hie previously and the 56 remaining physicians indicated they had not yet used hie. respondents represented all clinical specialties, including internal medicine, pediatrics, gynecology, pathology, general surgery, anesthesiology, radiology, neurology, oncology, and cardiology. selected sample demographics, along with the population demographics for all 263 providers at this hospital (obtained directly from the hospital administration), are shown in table 1. a one-way between subject's anova was conducted to compare statistical differences across demographic categories on each previously identified construct. demographic categories included: whether the participant had previously engaged with hie or not, gender, age grouping, professional license, role in the organization, and type of organization. constructs previously identified included health information exchange complexity, health information exchange system concerns, benefits of hie on patient care, population health, and provider performance. results from anova are shown in table 2 . results indicated that there was a statistically significant difference between those that had previously used hie and those that had not used hie for four constructs. these included provider beliefs about the complexity (f(1, 261) = 10.336, table 2 . statistically significant differences between gender groups were found for three constructs including provider system concerns (f(1, 247) = 30.413, p = .000); and perceived benefits on patient care (f(1, 247) = 4.731, p = .031), and on population health (f(1, 247) = 6.989, p = .009). statistically significant differences between age groups were found for three constructs including provider perceived benefits on patient care (f(2, 260) = 3.474, p = .032), population health (f(2, 260) = 3.944, p = .021), and provider performance (f(2, 260) = 4.349, p = .014). statistically significant differences between professional license groups (physician, nurse, other license, admin (no license)) were found for all five constructs, including provider perceptions about system complexity (f(3, 259) = 4.818, p = .003), provider concerns about use (f(3, 259) = 15.927, p = .000), provider perceived benefits on patient care (f(3, 259) = 6.186, p = .000), population health (f(3, 259) = 3.406, p = .018), and provider performance (f(3, 259) = 4.000, p = .008). statistically significant differences between type of organization setting (hospital, ambulatory clinic, medical office, other) were found for three constructs including provider concerns about use (f(3, 259) = 3.438, p = .017), and provider perceived benefits on population health (f(3, 259) = 3.399, p = .018), and on provider performance (f(3, 259) = 3.434, p = .018). there were no statistically significant differences found between groups based on a provider's role in an organization (patient care, administration, teaching/research, other). an anova test is important to assess the significance of results; however, an anova test does not provide information about where the statistically significant differences lie for multiple comparisons (groupings for age, licensure, type of organization). in order to analyze which specific group means are different, tukey's hsd test is conducted for anova results with statistically significant f-values (tukey 1949) . tukey hsd post hoc comparisons indicated that the mean score for participants between 40 to 55 years old (m = 1.62, sd = 0.57) was significantly different from participants over 55 years old (m = 1.82, sd = 0.52) for provider perceived benefits on patient care. these two age groups, respectively, were also significantly different in terms of perceived benefits on population health ( results from tukey hsd post hoc tests on type of organization indicated that participants whose primary work affiliation is with hospitals (m = 2.89, sd = 0.66) were significantly different than those who identified with medical offices/ private practice (m = 2.70, sd = 0.67) in terms of their concerns with using hie. results showed these two groups were .005 (7.992)* .014 (4.349)* .110 (2.577) .008 (4.000)* .914 (.174) .018 (3.434)* *the mean difference is significant at the 0.05 level also significantly different in terms of hie benefits on provider performance ((m = 1.96, sd = 0.57) vs. (m = 2.20, sd = 0.53), respectively). hospital based providers were less concerned and more positive towards performance benefits. results also indicated that ambulatory clinics (m = 1.72, sd = 0.62) were significantly different from medical offices/ private practices (m = 2.10, sd = 0.75) in their beliefs that hie benefits population health. the primary goal of this study was to identify differences in providers' perceptions related to hie based on their demographics and prior use of hie. a field survey was created based on provider interviews and administered to providers from different disciplines. the findings indicate that there were statistically significant differences in most hie perceptions based on demographics including prior hie use, gender, age, professional license, and type of organization. professional role in an organization yielded no statistically significant differences. the providers that had previously used hie showed more positive responses towards hie in each category except for the system concerns category. these results seem to support the business literature indicating that prior use of an information system has been shown to be associated with the intention to use it in the future, regardless of the amount of effort needed to use the technology (jackson et al. 1997; agarwal and prasad 1999) . there was a statistically significant difference in perceptions related to system complexity, system concerns, patient care, and population care between different genders, with females generally showing more positive responses than males for each category. depending on age groups, a statistically significant difference was observed for the patient care, population care, and provider performance constructs. interestingly, the middle group (ages 40 to 55) showed more positive responses than both the younger providers (less than 40 years) and older providers (over 55 years) for each category. while other studies have not looked at age by these constructs, this finding differs from literature suggesting that those 45 years and younger are more likely to adopt ehrs (decker et al. 2012) . it could be that the hie context may be perceived differently than ehrs due to it being connective to and enabling of interoperability between ehrs. it could also be the size of the sample for each age group. in this sample, we have more providers that are in that middle age group compared to those that belong to the younger and older age groups. another potential way to explain this finding could be using the diffusion of innovation theory (kaminski 2011) . younger providers and older providers could be part of the later majority (conservatives) and may be less than enthusiastic at the beginning, as they could be waiting on statistically significant evidence before adopting and implementing new technology. the middle age group could be part of the visionaries or pragmatists as described in the diffusion of innovation theory and may be willing to be the trail blazers or risk takers (kaminski 2011) . statistically significant differences for all five constructs were noted across all professional license groups, which indicates that providers have different perceptions about hie depending on their discipline. in general, nurses reported the lowest scores about perceived complexity of hie, yet the highest scores in terms of system concerns. other licensed professionals reported the highest scores (high perceptions about hie task complexity). nurses and administrators reported the most positive scores on the benefits of hie for patient care, population health, and provider performance. doctors reported the least amount of concern with using hie, while nurses reported the highest amount of concern. statistically significant differences were noted for system concerns, population health, and provider performance constructs between different types of organizational groupings. the hospital based and "other organization" type groupings reported the least concerns about hie use and those working for medical offices reported the highest amount of concern. participants who reported working within ambulatory clinics reported the highest perceived benefit of hie on population health while those working within medical offices/private practice reported the lowest perceived benefit and this is consistent with the literature across a variety of ambulatory settings (haidar et al. 2017) . participants who reported working within hospitals reported the highest perceived benefit of hie on provider performance while those working in medical offices/private practice reported the lowest perceived benefit. the findings of this study should be interpreted in light of its limitations. the first limitation is our measurement of the prior hie usage behavior construct. our self-reported measure of usage was not as accurate, unbiased, or objective as usage data from system logs. we urge future researchers to use system log-based measures of it usage, if available. second, our small sample size, and correspondingly low statistical power, may have contributed to our inability to observe significant effects of prior usage behavior on each construct. we encourage future researchers to consider using larger samples, such as by using pooled observations from two or more hospitals and/or other healthcare facilities. third, there were 14 participants that did not select either male or female gender. thus, the analysis of gender did not include the entire sample. finally, there may be additional factors beyond those examined in this study. our choice of the factors used here was motivated by the hie literature and a first round of interviews with providers. however, there may be other theories, such as innovation diffusion theory or political theory, that may also be relevant to explaining provider perceptions and behavior. future studies can explore those theories for identifying other predictors of provider behavior and/or compare the explanatory ability of those theories discussed herein. the findings of this study have interesting implications for health it practitioners. first, we provide evidence of the perspectives of various types of providers in terms of their beliefs and perceptions about hie. perceptions about system complexity, system concerns, patient care, population health, provider performance, and prior usage have varying effects in terms of influencing provider' perceptions about hie. however, implementing standards of care that incorporate hie is an instance of organizational change, requiring careful planning and orchestrating of change management to influence providers to routinely use the targeted technologies. change management programs designed to enhance provider intentions to use health it should focus on educating users on the expected performance gains from technology usage as well as improving their perceptions of behavioral control by training users to use those technologies appropriately. the significance of prior behavior on future hie usage intention is indicative of the importance of recruiting early adopters to "seed" hie usage in hospitals and healthcare settings. junior practitioners, by virtue of their more recent medical training involving the latest health it, may be viewed as more likely to be such early adopters. however, the results of this study also show that providers age 40 to 55 may provide a strong base of supporters. given their prior usage behavior and correspondingly, higher level of comfort with such technologies, these individuals are likely to continue using hie further in hospital settings, even when other conditions may be less conducive to their usage. with major health it policy efforts focused on interoperability, this study contributes to the perspective that different provider groups may be stronger facilitators of interoperability efforts than others and thus these findings could help managers and policymakers determine strategies for such efforts. this study examined provider perceptions about hie, comparing those who have not used hie with those who have previously used the technology. as such, the role of prior behavior on providers' perceptions and intentions regarding future hie usage provides new insights. one may hypothesize that if individuals use a system that is perceived to provide value, then use of that technology will proliferate and expand throughout the intended user population. findings indicate that this may not always be the case. as systems become more integrated, inter-organizational, and more complex, user perceived value derived from using that system may not be understood by the user. this study contributes to the nascent stage of theorizing in the medical informatics literature by presenting the theory of planned behavior as a referent theory that can not only help us understand providers' usage of hie better, but can also serve as a starting point for more detailed investigations of provider behavior. second, given that the centrality of hie usage to improving healthcare delivery, quality, and outcomes and the uphill battle many states and regions are currently facing to get providers to use hie, our study provides some preliminary suggestions about how providers' behaviors can be influenced using a strong evidence base. we also elaborate the contingent role played by prior hie usage experience in shaping providers' usage patterns. presumably, there may be more such contingent factors that may be the subject of future investigations. in conclusion, we hope that this study will motivate future researchers to examine in further depth provider hie usage behavior and contribute to a cumulative body of research in this area. publisher's note springer nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. sue feldman, rn, med, phd is professor and director of graduate programs in health informatics in the school of health professions at the university of alabama at birmingham. dr. feldman is also a senior scientist in the informatics institute and senior fellow in the center for the study of community health. her research focuses on health information systemsfrom development to evaluation. dr. feldman also serves on the health informatics accreditation council for the commission on accreditation for health informatics and information management (cahiim), chairs graduate health informatics accreditation site visit teams, and has studied and developed graduate level health informatics curriculum. as a registered nurse (rn) for over 30 years, she brings a unique clinical and informatics blend to everything she does, grounding policy and theory with practice. dr. feldman has published in a variety of top-tier peer-reviewed journals and conference proceedings, led or co-led the development of several information systems that are grounded in research, and has served as program chair for several national forums. her current work involves leading the development of a substance use, abuse, and recovery data collection system for the state of alabama as well as a statewide covid-19 symptom and exposure notification system. dr. feldman has a masters degree in education and a phd in education and also in information systems and technology from claremont graduate university. neşet hikmet is professor of health information technology in the college of engineering and computing, university of south carolina where he also serves as the director of applied sciences at center for applied innovation and advanced analytics. his research expertise includes cloud computing, augmented analytics, health informatics, and healthcare internet of things. as an applied scientist he is heavily involved in design, development, deployment, and maintenance of large-scale computing systems. dr. hikmet has significant experience in leading health data analytics projects within academia, including utilization of a wide range of analytics methods and approaches. his research and projects have been funded by the national science foundation, national institutes of health, and other federal and state agencies and private foundations. shikha modi, mba is a graduate of uab's mba program with an emphasis on healthcare services. ms. modi has a bachelor's degree in biology from university of north alabama. ms. modi's current research projects include health information technology and its impact on outcomes, health information exchange and provider performance, health information exchange and patient and population health, the intersection of health informatics, healthcare quality and safety, and healthcare simulation, patient experience evaluation at dermatology clinics, and identifying and mitigating bias in artificial intelligence systems. benjamin schooley, mba, phd is associate professor of health it in the college of engineering and computing, university of south carolina where he also serves as research director at the health information technology consortium. his research expertise includes human-computer interaction, health informatics, and human factors in the design and application of software systems. as a design scientist, his applied and field research in health, wellness and social-benefit initiatives have been funded by the national science foundation, national institutes of health, the centers for medicaid and medicare services, the u.s. department of labor, social security administration, and other federal and state agencies and private foundations. are individual differences germane to the acceptance of new information technologies? decision sciences does health information exchange reduce unnecessary neuroimaging and improve quality of headache care in the emergency department the triple aim: care, health, and cost health care provider perceptions of a querybased health information exchange: barriers and benefits perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and user acceptance of information technology physicians in nonprimary care and small practices and those age 55 and older lag in adopting electronic health record systems nhin direct: onc keeps it simple in effort to jumpstart data exchange public attitudes toward health information exchange: perceived benefits and concerns the northwest public health information exchange's accomplishments in connecting a health information exchange with public health determinants of physicians' technology acceptance for ehealth in ambulatory care the psychology of attitudes do health information exchanges deter repetition of medical services? health information exchange associated with improved emergency department care through faster accessing of patient information from outside organizations systematic review of health information exchange in primary care practices the financial impact of health information exchange on emergency department care the financial impact of health information exchange on emergency department care hospital electronic health information exchange grew substantially in 2008-12 user perspectives on the usability of a regional health information exchange adoption of health information exchange by emergency physicians at three urban academic medical centers association between electronic medical record implementation and otolaryngologist productivity in the ambulatory setting information systems and healthcare xvi: physician adoption of electronic medical records: applying the utaut model in a healthcare context assessing the relationship between health information exchanges and public health agencies the impact of health information exchange on health outcomes examining the technology acceptance model using physician acceptance of telemedicine technology toward an understanding of the behavioral intention to use an information system a comprehensive conceptualization of post-adoptive behaviors associated with information technology enabled work systems health information exchange and patient safety diffusion of innovation theory physicians' perceptions and use of a health information exchange: a pilot program in south korea health information exchange in the ed: what do ed clinicians think? the effects of creating psychological ownership on physicians' acceptance of clinical information systems physicians' potential use and preferences related to health information exchange despite the spread of health information exchange, there is little evidence of its impact on cost, use, and quality of care crossing the quality chasm: a new health system for the 21st century health information exchange in small-to-medium sized family medicine practices: motivators, barriers, and potential facilitators of adoption effects of health information exchange adoption on ambulatory testing rates what affects clinicians' usage of health information exchange usage and effect of health information exchange: a systematic review health information exchange interventions can enhance quality and continuity of hiv care using health information exchange to improve public health assessing it usage: the role of prior experience understanding information technology usage: a test of competing models influence of experience on personal computer utilization: testing a conceptual model interpersonal behavior comparing individual means in the analysis of variance bridging organizational divides in healthcare: an ecological view of health information exchange perceptions of health information exchange in home healthcare the association between health information exchange and measures of patient satisfaction factors motivating and affecting health information exchange usage an empirical analysis of the financial benefits of health information exchange in emergency departments identifying homelessness using health information exchange data key: cord-280459-y0tbvs3t authors: ramvikas, m.; arumugam, m.; chakrabarti, s.r.; jaganathan, k.s. title: nasal vaccine delivery date: 2016-10-07 journal: micro and nanotechnology in vaccine development doi: 10.1016/b978-0-323-39981-4.00015-4 sha: doc_id: 280459 cord_uid: y0tbvs3t the mucosal surfaces represent the major site of entry of many pathogens, and major challenges in vaccine development include safety and stability in a suitable dosage form. microand nanocarrier-based delivery systems as nasal vaccines induce humoral, cellular, and mucosal immunity. the nasal route of vaccination could also offer immunity at several distant mucosal sites (oral, rectal, vaginal, and pulmonary), which is considered a simplified and cost-effective mode of vaccination with enhanced patient compliance. most of the nasal vaccine delivery systems in the form of microparticulates, nanoparticulates, and liposomes are currently under development and prove to offer immunity in animal models. the importance and potential of the nasal route of administration for vaccines is unexplored, and this chapter outlines the opportunities, challenges, and potential delivery solutions to facilitate the development of improved nasal vaccines for infectious diseases. mucosal infections are caused by emerging pathogens such as bacteria and viruses, which are mucosally transmitted and replicate in the mucosal tissues. these pathogens enter the human through single or multiple mucosal sites such as oral, nasal, conjunctival, respiratory, gastrointestinal, and genitourinary tracts, invade the bloodstream, and finally lead to infection. approximately 68% of deaths in children younger than 5 years are due to mucosal infections. 1 bacteria such as streptococcus pneumoniae, 2 staphylococcus aureus, 3 anaerobic bacteria, 4 streptococcus viridans, 5 α-streptococci, enterobacteriaceae, and viruses such as haemophilus influenzae, corona virus, and human adenovirus 6 cause mucosal infections. the mucosal infections are treated by antibiotics, and vaccines are administered through oral, parenteral, and nasal routes. a nasal vaccine induces mucosal immune responses and systemic immunity, which provides better protection against infectious agents. yet developing vaccine delivery systems that induce humoral and cell-mediated response with mucosal immunity has been challenging to date. different mucosal routes are being explored using different delivery systems, and the nasal route is preferred as compared to other mucosal routes. the mucosal route of vaccine delivery is one of the better alternatives to conventional multiple injection vaccines, which employ traumatic procedures and may also lead to the spread of infectious agents via contaminated syringes. mucosal vaccine development has grown extensively, and a multitude of vaccine delivery systems have been developed for application via ocular, nasal, oral, rectal, and vaginal routes. of all the different routes of mucosal vaccination, the oral and nasal routes are most accepted and easily accessible. for many decades, intranasal applications of tobacco snuff, cocaine, and various hallucinogenic and psychotropic agents have been in practice. 7 similarly, for many years synthetic drugs have been administered intranasally for their local effect on the mucosa (eg, antihistamines, antibiotics, and nonpeptide drugs). 8 the first nasal influenza vaccine was introduced in 2001, but it was later withdrawn from the market due to potential toxicity problems. another intranasal vaccine (flumist) was launched in 2003 and was administered using a syringe sprayer. success of a vaccine depends not only on the delivery but also on the route of administration; for example, nasal immunization elicits potent immunoglobulin a (iga) secretion in the respiratory tract. 9 nasal administrations of vaccines have been shown to achieve a better systemic bioavailability and protection from gastric enzymes compared with parenteral and oral administration. nasal delivery of vaccines acts as a "first entry block," that is, blocks the pathogen entry, while invading to the mucosal surface by inducing local microbial-specific immune responses, thus increasing the general efficacy of the vaccine. in addition, vaccine uptake into the blood circulatory system by absorption through mucosa can be relatively fast. 10 it is the most appropriate method of immunization because it is rich in t cells, b cells, and plasma cells and stimulates both antigen-specific systemic and mucosal adaptive immune responses. it provides better patient compliance due to the needle-free delivery. the nasal route is considered an attractive route for vaccine administration with the following advantages: • better patient compliance • numerous microvilli present in the nasal epithelium provide a better absorption surface • mucosal and systemic immune response can be induced • easy immunization of large population groups • nasal immunization does not require needles and syringes many challenges stand in the way of developing nasal vaccines. when nasal vaccines are administered directly on mucosal surface, the antigens may be diluted by mucosal secretions, seized in mucus gels, attacked by proteases and nucleases, and obstructed by epithelial barriers. major challenges in the development of nasal vaccines include: • a relatively large dose of vaccine is required, and it is difficult to administer through the nasal route and also difficult to monitor the actual dose that crosses the mucosa. • costly innovative vaccination strategy. • efficacy of nasal vaccines may be limited due to the including mucociliary clearance and the inefficient uptake of soluble antigens by nasal epithelial cells in the nasal cavity. 11 • nasal delivery may require adjuvants to enhance their immunogenicity and delivery to the mucosal tissues. • lack of multiple human-compatible mucosal adjuvants. • rapid nasal clearance may not allow sufficient retention for antigen to be taken up by antigen-presenting cells (apcs) in the nasal-associated lymphoid tissue (nalt). • several enzymes that are present in the nasal mucosa might affect the stability of drugs. for example, proteins and peptides are subjected to degradation by proteases and amino-peptidase at the mucosal membrane. 12 • delivery volume in the nasal cavity is restricted to 25-200 µl. 13 • high molecular weight compounds cannot be delivered through this route (mass cutoff ∼1 kda). 14 • low antigen entrapment efficiency mode. • normal defense mechanisms like mucociliary clearance and ciliary beating affect the permeability of the drug. 15 the nose is a vital organ in the human body for breathing. the nose has a more complex role as a complete system of defense against inhaled air and air conditioning. the nasal anatomical and physiological structure provides support for nasal immunization against upper respiratory mucosal diseases. nasal anatomy, nasal morphology and physiology, nasal secretions, nasal mucosa, olfactory region, and blood supply to the nasal cavity are described with respect to their link with the vaccine administration route. the nasal cavity is protected by the viscerocranium in the human head. the human nose is divided by the median septum into two symmetrical halves; each half opens to the face through the nostrils and extends posteriorly to the nasopharynx. 16 the nasal cavity and the nasal vestibule are the anterior part, which opens to the face through the nostrils. the atrium is placed in an intermediate region between the vestibule and the respiratory region. the respiratory region, the nasal turbinates, occupies more area of the nasal cavity. it possesses lateral walls that divide it into three sections composed of the superior nasal turbinate (superior region), nasal turbinate (middle region), and inferior turbinate (inferior region). the attachment of the turbinate to the lateral wall is more complex in animals than in humans. these folds provide the nasal cavity with a very high surface area compared to its small volume. the basic functions of the nose are filtration of particles and heating and humidification of inspired air before it reaches the lungs. the olfactory region situated above the superior nasal turbinate possesses specialized ciliated olfactory nerve cells for smell perception. the human nasal cavity has a total volume of 15-20 ml and a total surface area of approximately 150 cm 2 , 17 of which the respiratory region covers about 85%. each nasal cavity can be subdivided into different regions such as nasal vestibule, turbinate (inferior, middle, and superior), olfactory region, frontal sinus, sphenoidal sinus, and cribriform plate of ethmoid bone. nalt is present in the nasal cavity, which is situated in the nasopharynx. the central axon of these nerve cells passes through the cribriform plate of the ethmoid bone and into the olfactory bulb. the nasal vestibule has numerous nasal hair (vibrissae) that filter large airborne particles ( fig. 15.1) . the anterior section of the nasal portion is constituted by a stratified squamous epithelium with sebaceous glands and the posterior section of the nasal portion by pseudostratified columnar cells presenting microvilli. the nasal respiratory mucosa is considered the most important area for delivering drugs systemically, as its made of epithelium, basement membrane, and lamina propria. 18 the nasal respiratory epithelium consists of pseudostratified columnar epithelial cells, goblet cells, basal cells, and mucous and serous glands. 19, 20 most of the epithelial cells on their apical surface with microvilli and the major part have fine projections, called cilia. the nasal secretion, nasal mucosa, olfactory region, and blood supply to the nasal cavity play a major role in nasal physiology. nasal secretions originate mostly from submucosal glands and goblet cells. mucus is composed of water (95%); glycoproteins (2%); albumin, immunogobulins, lysozyme, lactoferrin and other proteins (1%); inorganic salts (1%); and lipids (<1%). 11 glycoproteins are in low proportion, which provides mucus with its characteristic viscoelastic properties. the mucus layer is divided into the low viscosity lower layer of about 5-10 µm thick and the more viscous upper layer of about 0.5-5 µm thick. the human nasal ph is approximately 5-8 with an average baseline of 6.3. the nasal respiratory mucosa consists of epithelium, basement membrane, and lamina propria. the nasal respiratory epithelium contains pseudostratified columnar epithelial cells, goblet cells, basal cells, mucous, and serous glands. many of the epithelial cells are covered on their apical surface with fine projections of microvilli (called cilia), which enhance the respiratory surface area. the nasal epithelium is covered with a thin mucus layer, which is produced by secretory glands and goblet cells. nasal mucus is responsible for several physiological functions, such as humidification and warming of the inhaled air, 21 and offers physical and enzymatic protection. the olfactory region is located in the top of the nasal cavity about 2-10 cm 2 and extends down the septum and lateral wall. neuroepithelium, which is the only part of the central nervous system (cns), is directly exposed to the external environment. the olfactory area is made of pseudostratified columnar epithelium and is composed of supporting cells, basal cells, microvillar cells, and the typical receptor or olfactory cells. 22 olfactory regions also contain olfactory receptors (receptors for smell sensations) and small serous glands (which produce secretions that act as a solvent). the total surface area of the olfactory epithelium is 200-400 mm. the nasal cavity vasculature requires rich blood supply to fulfill the basic physiological functions such as heating, humidification, olfaction, mucociliary clearance, and immunological roles. the nasal vascular bed is intended as such for rapid and easy exchange of fluid and dissolved excipients between blood vessels and nasal tissue. the capillary flow in the nasal mucosa was reported to be 0.5 ml/g/min. 23 antigen uptake in the nose is mostly by two mechanisms: paracellular (aqueous pathway) and transcellular (lipoidal) processes ( fig. 15 .2). the most efficient area for drug absorption is the highly vascularized lateral wall of the nasal cavity: the mucosa lined over the turbinates or conchae. • in the paracellular mechanism, the antigen uptake nasally is through the aqueous route of transport, and this route is slow and passive. the process mainly depends on an inverse log-log correlation between intranasal absorption and the molecular weight of water-soluble compounds/antigens. poor bioavailability is observed for antigens with a molecular weight greater than 1 kda in the paracellular process. 24 an example is chitosan widening the tight junctions between epithelial cells. • in the transcellular mechanism, the antigen uptake nasally is through a lipoidal route and is responsible for the transport of lipophilic antigen based on lipophilicity. other than transcellular and paracellular processes, antigens may also cross cell membranes by an active transport route via passive diffusion (depends on ph of environment and pka of the drug), carrier-mediated means, or transport through the opening of tight junctions in mucosa (ie, through organic cation or amino acid transport), and endocytic process [uptake of antigen mediated by microfold (m) cells]. 25 there are various factors that affect the antigen uptake in the nasal cavity after nasal immunization, but the bioavailability of a nasal delivery vaccine depends on two major factors: nasal physiological factor and physiochemical properties of nasal vaccine formulation. there are different physiological factors that regulate the absorption of antigen. • the permeability of a nasal vaccine depends on the type of cells and number of cells in the nasal cavity. • secretions of nasal mucosa enzymes such as lactate dehydrogenase, 26 oxidative, conjugative enzymes, peptidases, and proteases also act as a barrier and degrade the nasal vaccine. • stimulation of nasal mucosa plays a role in mucosal absorption. parasympathetic stimulates increase permeability of a nasal vaccine. • viscous nasal mucus secretion may retard the uptake of antigen. • permeation of antigen is altered at night (chronokinetics) due to clearance rates and mucosal secretions. • generally, ph of the nasal cavity for adults is 5.5-6.5 and for infants is 5.0-7.0; for better antigenic absorption, the developed nasal formulation ph should be within 4.5-6.5. 27 • mucociliary clearance (mcc) takes about 21 min in the nasal cavity, and increased mcc decreases antigen uptake. 28 • mucociliary functioning may affect nasal mucosa due to diseases such as the common cold, rhinitis, etc. • environmental conditions (ie, increases in temperature and increases in mucus secretion) also affect the mucociliary clearance. • antigen concentration, dose, and volume of administration are three interrelated parameters that affect the performance of the nasal antigen delivery. 29 • ph of nasal formulation should be in the range between 4.5 and 6.5 because lysozymes found in nasal secretions are responsible for destruction of certain bacteria at acidic ph. 30 the lysosomes will be inactivated at ph above 7 and susceptible to microbial infection in nasal tissue. • pharmaceutical dosage form is another important factor to consider while developing a nasal formulation. nasal drops are simpler and more convenient than powder, gel, and suspension sprays. 31 • pharmaceutical excipients used in the formulation such as buffer components, antioxidants, preservatives, surfactants, humactants, solubilizers, and gelling/viscosifying agents also play a crucial role in the delivery of the antigen. nasal clearance is one of the major challenges in the development of a nasal vaccine. in nasal mucosa, mucus acts as a sticky fluid and cilia act as a motivator, which prevents foreign substances, pathogens, and particles from being carried by inhaled air into the lungs. in physiological conditions, mucus is transported at a rate of 5 mm/min, and its transit time in the human nasal cavity is 15-20 min. 32 it depends on the length, density, and beat frequency of cilia as well as the amount and viscoelastic properties of the mucus. the absorption of antigen is influenced by the residence (contact) time between the antigen and the epithelial tissue in mucosa. if the mucociliary clearance increases, the antigen absorption decreases (ie, inversely proportional to each other). nasal mucociliary clearance can also be stimulated or inhibited by the active ingredient (ie, antigen and/or inactive ingredients such as preservatives, absorption enhancers, and/or other excipients), thus affecting the delivery of antigen to the absorption site. a prolonged residence time in the nasal cavity may also be achieved by using bioadhesive polymers or a particulate delivery system or by increasing the viscosity of the formulation. deposition of antigen in an anterior and posterior region of the nose also affects the antigen absorption of nasal formulation. the anterior portion provides a longer nasal residence time for antigen with low permeability, but antigen permeability is higher in the posterior portion of the nose with shorter nasal residence time. an example is that nasal sprays are deposited anteriorly and cleared slowly into the nasal pharynx by mucociliary clearance. nasal drops are deposited posteriorly and removed rapidly into the nasal pharynx. 33 nalt is the primary target site for nasally administered vaccines, and it consists of lymphoid follicles that occur directly beneath the mucosal follicle-associated epithelial (fae) cells. nalt is in the waldeyer's ring, which includes the pharynx and tonsils. the inductive site for nasal immunity is nalt, m cells, b cells, t cells, dendritic cells (dcs), and regional and cervical lymph nodes. nasally immunized vaccine is transported to nalt through the fae that contains specialized villous m cells for process and presentation. villous m cells lack a brush border, which facilitates the binding and delivery of antigens and also does not secrete mucus or any enzymes. nalt is involved in the induction of dc, b cell, and t cell responses following nasal vaccination and also produces local defense against invading pathogens. part of the soluble antigens may migrate to regional draining lymph nodes through the major histocompatibility complex (mhc) to th cells. activation of antigen-specific cd4+ t helper cells (th cells) interacts with b cells, which develop into iga committed (iga+). the iga+ b cells rapidly migrate from the nalt to the draining cervical lymph nodes in the nasal passage where they differentiate into iga-producing plasma in the presence of cytokines such as il-5 and il-6 that are produced by th2 cells and secrete iga in dimers. dimeric iga then becomes s-iga by binding to the polymeric ig receptor, which transports iga to effector sites. s-iga is able to bind toxins, bacteria, or viruses and neutralize their activity, thus preventing entry into the body or reaching the internal organs, and forms a first barrier of defense against invading antigens. intranasally administered vaccines elicit neutralizing iga, preventing colonization of the throat and systemic igg antibodies and facilitating clearance from systemic sites (fig. 15.3) . immune-competent cells in tonsillar lymphoid tissue and ciliated and nonciliated cells also play a role in immunity generation. the production of iga by both the adenoid tissue and the nasal mucosa contributes significantly to immune protection against inhaled bacteria and viruses. 37 mucosa defends against invading pathogens through two types of immune systems: the innate immunity system and adaptive immune system. the key role of innate immunity and adaptive immunity at the mucosal surface are discussed in the following sections. mucosal surfaces of the nasal tract and respiratory tract are adorned with a potential barrier known as epithelial cell lines. epithelial cells in nasal mucosa are active participants in mucosal defense. epithelia and their associated gland produce innate defenses including mucins and antimicrobial proteins. 38 epithelial cells detect the dangerous/foreign microbial components through pattern recognition receptors such as toll-like receptors (tlrs) and send the cytokine and chemokine signals to mucous membrane-associated apcs, such as dcs and macrophages, to trigger nonspecific/innate defenses and stimulate adaptive immune responses. an important characteristic of mucosa is the production and secretion of dimeric iga that is resistant to degradation in the protease-rich surroundings of mucosal surfaces. in humans, production of iga is more comparable to other immunoglobulin isotypes, and high concentrations of iga antibodies (more than 1 mg/ml) are present in the mucosal surface-associated secretions. iga facilitates the entrapment of microbes and foreign bodies into the mucus by avoiding direct contact of pathogens with the mucosal surface, which is known as "immune exclusion." there are numerous mucosal routes of immunization available as an alternative to current parenteral immunization, namely oral, nasal, pulmonary, vaginal, and rectal. the nasal route is more attractive for several reasons. it is a practical site for easy selfadministration, 39 with the use of commercially available wide delivery devices. nasal immunization generally requires much lower doses of antigen compared with the oral or sometimes parenteral route. nasal immunization does not expose antigens to low ph and digestive enzymes like protease and nuclease, and a protective coating of mucus limits access of antigen into the mucosal epithelium. administration of vaccines through the nasal route may predominantly induce potent immune responses. different types of delivery vehicles suitable for the nasal drug delivery systems are being explored; some are being researched, and a few are in clinical phases. they are classified into two major categories: replicating delivery systems and nonreplicating delivery systems. in a replicating delivery system genetically altered live virus acts as a vector; it proliferates in the host tissues after immunization. it is one of the more prevalent and effective presentations of the antigen and more likely to be effective at stimulating an immune response following oral and nasal delivery. there are different virus vector (rhabdo virus, polio virus, influenza virus, cowpea mosaic virus) [40] [41] [42] and bacterial vector (shigella, salmonella, listeria) 43 replicating delivery systems able to induce a ctl response that produces longer-lasting immunity. introduction of multiple foreign genes can replace the nonessential regions of the viral genome, resulting in an immune response against multiple pathogens. this tactic enables the recombinant virus to be used as a vaccine for two or more infectious agents. vaccine priming with hiv-env-expressing influenza virus induced systemic cellular response in mice. 44 a single intranasal dose of shigella vector based hiv-1 vaccine produced cd8+ t cell response comparable to systemic immunization. 45 replicating antigen delivery systems are not preferred due to their complexity of large exploration. nonreplicating delivery systems are those which mimic the antigens to the immune system and cause similar uptake by apcs. different kinds of nonreplicating delivery systems include: • liposomes • micro-and nanoparticulate systems • immune-stimulating complexes (iscoms) • virus-like particles (vlps) • emulsions • bioadhesive delivery systems liposomes are small artificial vesicles made of bilayer lipid molecules such as phospholipid and cholesterol which encapsulate antigens. liposomes are a promising delivery system because of their size, ampiphilic nature, and biocompatibility. these vesicles form spontaneously when an aqueous solution is added to a dried film of the lipid components. the hydrophilic (water-soluble or polar head) portion of the lipid molecule is present toward the aqueous phase, and the hydrophobic (water-insoluble) portion is allied inside the membrane. many of the phospholipids used to make liposomes are from food products (eg, egg yolk or soybeans), 46 so they are nontoxic and safe. the potency of liposomes depends on different factors such as the surface of the lipid layers, electric charge, composition, and method of preparation. 47 liposomes can also act as an adjuvant, 48 which leads to the induction of potential immune response with low antigen payload. they can also convert nonimmunogenic substances into immunogenic forms (eg, by rendering soluble substances particulate in nature). liposomes are taken up by macrophages and by m cells for antigen processing and/or presentation to other lymphoid cells for the induction of immune responses. they can also directly present antigens to lymphoid cells for the induction of immune responses. nasal application of liposomes containing bacterial polysaccharide antigens has been tested in balb/c mice and revealed that enhanced immune responses in pulmonary secretions was observed in mice after immunization of the liposomal antigen in comparison with antigen alone and as an oral immunization. 49 apart from this, many investigations carried out on liposomes using different antigens are described in table 15 .1. a nasal influenza vaccine, based on a liposome (virosomal) formulation of influenza virus subunits, has recently been marketed in europe by the swiss serum institute (berne, switzerland). liposomes could be a promising delivery system for nasal vaccines. particulate carriers have attracted considerable interest as antigen carriers for achieving delivery of antigens at a specific site in the body. nanoparticles range in size from 1 to iga antibody and ctl responses [66] 1000 nm (1 µm), while microparticles range from 1 to 1000 µm; 79 the smaller particle size promotes faster adsorption. other added advantages include a more stable system protecting from the hostile environment of nasal mucosa, prolonged release, bioadhesion properties, and induction of a significant immune response with reduced dose. depending on the method of preparation, microparticles or nanoparticles can be prepared with different properties and release characteristics. the polymers used for the particulate system are biomolecules such as proteins, peptides, polynucleotides, and polysaccharides or synthetic polymers such as polylactide-polyglycolide copolymers, 80 polyacrylates, polyε-caprolacton, 81 and n-trimethyl chitosan-poly(γ-glutamic acid). 82 nano-and microsized particulate carriers are prepared with the antigenic molecule and deliver it to the desired site of action to induce potent and long-lasting immune responses. the mechanisms by which these particulate systems alter the induction of immune responses are size-dependent penetration, depot effect, repetitive antigen display, crosspresentation, and release of soluble mediators such as cytokines that regulate the immune response. 83 many studies carried out on micro-and nanoparticulate-based nasal vaccine delivery systems using different antigens are shown in table 15 .1. hence a polymer-based micro-/nanoparticulate system can be exploited as a viable nasal vaccine delivery system that is capable of delivering a multitude of antigens at the targeted sites and inducing desired immune response. an iscom is a highly versatile and effective antigen presentation system, which is a spherical open cage-like structure (typically 30-40 nm in diameter) 84 that forms spontaneously on mixing cholesterol, a lipid such as phosphatidyl choline, and the mixture of saponins that comprise quillaja saponins a. 85 the antigen-enveloped quillaja saponin acts as a strong inherent adjuvant as well. in 1984 morein and colleagues showed the potential induction of immune responses upon immunization with iscoms containing viral and bacterial membrane glycoproteins. iscoms are the potent inducers of not only humoral (antibody-mediated) immune responses but also cellular (t cell-mediated) immune responses. presentation of antigens unified with the iscom matrix allows their processing via the endogenous and exogenous pathways, resulting in the stimulation of both cd4+ and cd8+ t cells. 86 moreover, adjuvant activity of the quil a moiety induces long-lasting immune responses. the antibody levels stimulated by iscoms are found to be equivalent to those after immunization with conventional adjuvants such as complete freund's adjuvant or alum. 87 some studies revealed that immunization with iscoms induces a wide range of immune responses including all subclasses of igg and cell-mediated immune responses such as delayed-type hypersensitivity (dth) in vivo, antigen-specific proliferative responses and cytokine production in vitro. [88] [89] [90] an additional property of iscoms is their capability to enter the endogenous antigenprocessing pathway and then mhc class i-restricted cytotoxic t cells (ctl). intranasal immunization of echinococcus granulosus surface antigen iscoms evokes higher serum iga titer in relation to igg than the subcutaneous route in mice. 91 several studies on different antigens using iscom-based delivery systems are shown in table 15 .1. hence iscom-based delivery systems may be suitable for nasal vaccine administration. vlps are a promising option for vaccine delivery to the nasal site because they are easy to access, highly vascularized, self adjuvanting, and highly immunostimulatory and have a relatively large surface area and low proteolytic activity. 92 vlps are inert with a 20-100 nm self-assembled empty capsid protein, 93 which contains no dna/rna and shows a similar size and shape as viruses. vlps are efficiently taken up by dcs and induce potent immune responses after nasal immunization, which induces systemic immunity as well as both local and distal mucosal immunity via the common mucosal immune system (cmis). it is even more superior to parenteral administration at eliciting iga at distal mucosal sites. the vlps can be produced within mammalian cells, insect cells, yeast, bacteria, and even plants through recombinant dna techniques. 94, 95 due to these properties, vlps are exploited as the delivery system for different protein/peptide antigens. despite successful usage and potent immunity, vlps as a delivery system for protein antigens are still limited by the relatively complicated genetic modification on protein fusion and the subsequently required structural integrity characterization. vlp technology has been used for many years. an examples includes recombinant hepatitis b surface antigen (hbsag), produced in saccharomyces cerevisiae or pichia pastoris yeasts. 96 the entire recombinant core antigen (hbcag) of the hepatitis b virus (hbv) promotes th1 immunomodulation of the immune response to coadministered antigens, including the hbv surface antigen (hbsag) after nasal administration. this concept also applies to hiv, dengue, and chronic hepatitis c immunotheraphy; details are discussed in table 15 .1. vlps elicit a potent immune response and increase the immunogenicity of poorly immunogenic antigens, including self-proteins. the potential of micro-/nanoemulsion for various routes of administration has continuously been explored for the past two decades. 97 due to low globule size and lipophilic nature, emulsions are widely chosen as a delivery system to enhance uptake across nasal mucosa. emulsions are of various types including oil-in-water (o/w) and water-in-oil (w/o). most of the novel adjuvants are made up of emulsions such as incomplete freund's adjuvant, adjuvant 65, montanide, and mf59. 98 emulsions are isotropic, transparent, thermodynamically stable, and low viscosity colloidal dispersions, which are stabilized by an interfacial film of alternating surfactants and cosurfactant molecules. ease of administration and scale-up is one of the important advantages over other drug delivery systems such as solid dispersion, liposomes, and particulate delivery systems. emulsion formulation contains different inactive ingredients such as oil (soybean oil, sesame oil, isopropyl myristate, etc.), surfactant (tweens, span80, chromophores, peg, lecithin, cetrimide, etc.), cosurfactant (ethanol, propanol, peg, etc.), and aqueous phase. mucoadhesive polymer such as different grades of carbopol (eg, 974p/971p/980p, sodium alginate, pluronics, etc.) is generally incorporated in the composition of an emulsion to prolong the release of antigens. micro-/nanoemulsion provides good sprayability for nasal vaccine delivery compared with other particulate delivery systems. factors to consider during the preparation of a formulation include nature and concentration of oil, surfactant, cosurfactant, and aqueous phase; ratio of oil/ surfactant/cosurfactant; and temperature and ph of the environment. dilutability, particle size, ph, zeta potential, viscosity, and freeze/thaw cycling are critical parameters in the development of emulsion vaccines. nanoemulsion nasal vaccines have been studied for several diseases like hepatitis b, hiv, and influenza. 99 some studies reported that the nasal vaccine immunization produced strong igg and iga antibody levels, which is similar to alum adjuvant-based vaccines. the emulsion-based delivery approach might be promising for low-cost nasal vaccine immunization for the populations of developing and underdeveloped countries. in a bioadhesive delivery system the antigen carrier system adheres to a biological tissue for an extended period. nasal mucosa bioadhesion protects the antigen from mucosal enzymes and increases retention time. bioadhesive-based nasal vaccines are preferred to overcome nasal clearance issue, 100 to facilitate absorption, and for extended antigen delivery. bioadhesive polymers can be used to increase the nasal residence time by slowing mucocilliary clearance, which allows absorption for a longer time with the nasal mucosa and results in a subsequent increased in absorption. different bioadhesive polymers such as chitosan, carrageenan, carbopol, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (hpmc), k15m and e5, sodium alginate, sodium carboxy methylcellulose, polyvinyl pyrrolidone (pvp) 90, and xanthan gum are used in the formulations. 101 bioadhesion occurs between polymermucin chains through van der waals, hydrogen, hydrophobic, and electrostatic forces. 102 nasal immunization with different antigens such as tetanus toxoid, influenza, pertussis, and diphtheria following encapsulation and administration using different bioadhesive polymers such as pluronic f127, chitosan and its combination, 103, 104 and peg-coated polylactic acid 80 shows enhanced immune response via induction of igg and iga responses. chitosan-based influenza nasal vaccine produced effective immune response in human clinical trials. 105 bioadhesive drug delivery systems may be a potential tool for extended antigen delivery through nasal immunization. intranasal immunizations are simple, easy, convenient, and safer than other routes of administration. the delivery system selection depends upon the antigen being used for the proposed indication, patient type, and marketing preferences. there are different options available to deliver nasal vaccine such as drops, 106 powder, aerosol sprays, and the application of nasal gel. nasal drops are convenient and the most simple method for delivery of nasal vaccines. the nasal drops are administered using a nasal dropper or syringes. the major disadvantage of this system is the lack of dose precision 107 and difficulty for the pediatric population. some studies reported that nasal drops deposit human serum albumin in the nostrils more efficiently than nasal sprays. 108 nasal powder formulations are highly stable compared to liquid formulations. nasal powders can extend the residence time for powder formulations on the nasal mucosa, potentially increasing the local and systemic immune response. 109 however, the production of nasal dry powders is quite complicated with required particle size, particle distribution, and performance characteristics when compared with other dosage forms. the aerosol route of delivery of vaccines is one of the most preferred for nasal administration compared with other nasal dosage forms and also less reactogenic than the subcutaneous route of administration. 110 aerosol vaccination via the lungs targets an epithelium critical to host defense against inhaled pathogens and provides an exciting opportunity in the development of newer and more effective tuberculosis (tb), measles, and influenza vaccines. an aerosol vaccination usually depends on the target pathogen and the sites of the inductive immunity. the aerosols are available in liquid (solution, suspension, and emulsion) and solid forms. in addition to vaccine antigens, carrier/ solvent, emulsifier/surfactants, corrosion inhibitors, and propellant selection and compatability play a critical role in achieving required immunogenicity in infants. aerosol vaccine immunogenecity achievement is based on antigen particle size for prevention of upper respiratory (eg, boredetella pertussis, chlamydia pneumonia) and lower respiratory (eg, streptococcus pneumoniae, bacillus anthracis) bacteria and virus disease. larger particles (∼5 µm) are needed for the aerosol vaccination to prevent upper respiratory tract infection and smaller particles (≤ 3 µm) for lower respiratory tract infection. 111 the dried forms of vaccines with optimum particle size are traditionally prepared by freeze drying or spray drying. the aerosol form of vaccines was administered to many human subjects for a longer period and found to provide excellent protection for diseases such as influenza a and measles. 112, 113 therefore aerosol immunization may be a promising method of vaccination. nasal gels are generally used for colds, allergies, low humidity, or overuse of decongestant. nasal vaccine gels are a high-viscosity solution or suspension in which antigenic molecules are dispersed. the advantages of a nasal gel include the reduction of nasal clearance and anterior leakage due to highly viscous formulation, reduction of irritation by using soothing/emollient excipients, and target delivery to mucosa for better absorption. 114 in addition, it may potentially enhance the immune response, reduce the antigen and/or adjuvant dose, sustain antigen release, and improve antigen uptake with enhanced antigen stability. special application techniques are required for the administration of nasal gel vaccines because of their highly viscous formulation and poor spreading abilities. a wide variety of gelling polymers are available for formulation such as pullulan, deaceylated gellan gum, xantham gum, chitosan, and polyethylene glycol, used to encapsulate vaccine/adjuvant formulation as gel particles. viscosity, sol-gel transition temperature and gelling time, and gel strength and its texture are critical parameters in the development of nasal gel vaccines. recently, pneumococcal surface protein-a nasal gel vaccine, 115 clostridium botulinum type-a neurotoxin bohc/a, and tetanus toxoid 116 were studied in animal models and enhanced both humoral and cellular immunity. nasal gel is an alternative and promising novel dosage delivery system to achieve the immune response. nasal vaccine administration has been considered as an alternative method and found equivalent or superior to parenteral and other mucosal administration. it avoids the risk of transmitting diseases like hepatitis b, hiv, and other agents through improper injection practices and improves patient compliance. the intranasal vaccine delivery system induces both mucosal and systemic immune response, which avoids entry of pathogen in all 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strategies microemulsions for nasal drug delivery system: an overview novel adjuvants & delivery vehicles for vaccines development: a road ahead characterization of stability and nasal delivery systems for immunization with nanoemulsion-based vaccines bioadhesive and formulation parameters affecting nasal absorption in situ gelling, bioadhesive nasal inserts for extended drug delivery: in vitro characterization of a new nasal dosage form bioadhesive polymers for controlled drug delivery projuvant (pluronic f127/chitosan) enhance the immune response to intranasally administered tetanus toxoid chitosan as a novel nasal delivery system for vaccines almeida aj, alpar ho. nasal delivery of vaccines a review on intranasal drug delivery system development of nasal drug delivery: a review dry powder nasal vaccines as an alternative to needle-based delivery a meta-analysis of studies comparing the respiratory route with the subcutaneous route of measles vaccine administration a fast-rotating spectral shadow band radiometer for marine applications feasibility of aerosol vaccination in humans measles aerosol vaccination mucoadhesive hydrogels nanogel-based pneumococcal surface protein a nasal vaccine induces microrna-associated th17 cell responses with neutralizing antibodies against streptococcus pneumoniae in macaques nanogel antigenic proteindelivery system for adjuvant-free intranasal vaccines key: cord-031232-6cv8n2bf authors: de weck, olivier; krob, daniel; lefei, li; lui, pao chuen; rauzy, antoine; zhang, xinguo title: handling the covid‐19 crisis: toward an agile model‐based systems approach date: 2020-08-27 journal: nan doi: 10.1002/sys.21557 sha: doc_id: 31232 cord_uid: 6cv8n2bf the covid‐19 pandemic has caught many nations by surprise and has already caused millions of infections and hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide. it has also exposed a deep crisis in modeling and exposed a lack of systems thinking by focusing mainly on only the short term and thinking of this event as only a health crisis. in this paper, authors from several of the key countries involved in covid‐19 propose a holistic systems model that views the problem from a perspective of human society including the natural environment, human population, health system, and economic system. we model the crisis theoretically as a feedback control problem with delay, and partial controllability and observability. using a quantitative model of the human population allows us to test different assumptions such as detection threshold, delay to take action, fraction of the population infected, effectiveness and length of confinement strategies, and impact of earlier lifting of social distancing restrictions. each conceptual scenario is subject to 1000+ monte‐carlo simulations and yields both expected and surprising results. for example, we demonstrate through computational experiments that maintaining strict confinement policies for longer than 60 days may indeed be able to suppress lethality below 1% and yield the best health outcomes, but cause economic damages due to lost work that could turn out to be counterproductive in the long term. we conclude by proposing a hierarchical computerized, command, control, and communications (c4) information system and enterprise architecture for covid‐19 with real‐time measurements and control actions taken at each level. f i g u r e 1 confirmed deaths per million people as of july 21, 2020 makes it a systemic crisis and not only a pure health crisis. the closest analog we have at a global scale is the h1n1 influenza pandemic of 1917-1919 ("spanish flu") which killed between 17 and 50 million people worldwide. 6 thus, handling the current covid-19 crisis requires a holistic approach taking into consideration an extremely complex system, ie., society as a whole. another important aspect of the covid-19 crisis is that the pandemic propagation has been very fast, thus demanding rapid decisionmaking. moreover, and we think that this is a structuring feature of this crisis, the incubation time of the disease introduces a delay-that has been estimated as being up to two weeks according to epidemiologists (refs. 7, 8, or 9 )-between the implementation of countermeasures and the observation of their effects. this is compounded by the fact that a significant fraction of the virus carriers appear to be asymptomatic, causing a large difference between the numbers of actual cases and of known or confirmed cases (see refs. 1, 3, or 5) . this explains why the problem of monitoring the covid-19 crisis can be seen as a controltheoretic problem with delay in the feedback loop used to stabilize the situation in addition to the problem of low or only partial observability of the true system states. we shall elaborate further on this point. from a system-theoretic perspective, the above characteristics raise several difficult problems. the first one, which is rather expected, regards scalability: can our current systems engineering and modeling methods (cf. for instance, refs. 10-16, or 17) be extended to a system, or more precisely a system-of-systems (cf. ref. 18 or 19) , as large and as complex as human society as a whole? this question is clearly not easy to solve and appears moreover poorly addressed by the only known models of such scope, ie., the so-called world models, based on generalized volterra equations, that followed the seminal work of forrester in the 1970s (see refs. 20, 21, and 22) . a second problem is caused by the emergence of local and partial solutions which is significant since the covid-19 crisis impacts all sectors of society, including the medical, financial, transportation, manufacturing, and overall economic systems. society therefore needs fast and innovative solutions in order to mitigate as much as possible the consequences of the crisis. time pressure favors local and partial solutions, but also a strong coordination among actors in order to avoid contradictory strategies. a central question is therefore how to favor the emergence of bottom-up local actions while, at the same time, ensuring top-down monitoring and coordination of such actions, with short feedback loops. this calls for an agile approach (see refs. 23, 24, or 25) to the global covid-19 crisis. stating the above problems, we made a clear choice in this paper: we do strongly believe in the use of models, and more precisely of systemic models to think through and manage the crisis. models as we consider them here are, however, not platonic ideals, but observational models which rely on the observation of the reality of the covid-19 crisis, including the effects of the decisions made based on them. such models are intended to capture the systemic nature of the crisis in order to achieve a better understanding of the situation and to allow a better communication among stakeholders. in that respect, models have two main roles: first, the concrete calculation of key performance indicators to support the decision-making process through experiments in silico; and a second more metaphorical one, to help us think better about the dynamic evolution of the systems at stake. the remainder of this paper is organized as follows. in section 2, we discuss which systemic models may support better management of the covid-19 crisis. then, in section 3, we advocate for an agile approach for crisis management. section 4 completes the paper with several recommendations. the general impression which emerges from the large and rapidly expanding literature dedicated to the covid-19 pandemic is that this crisis was first and foremost analyzed as primarily a health crisis (cf. ref. 26 or 2) . economic impacts of the crisis were of course quickly understood, but, as far as we could observe, they were rather considered as an inevitable consequence of the health crisis that has to be managed as a second priority. 27 however, the aggressive mitigation measures that were set up in many countries were and are at the same time quite efficient from a health-preservation point of view (see, for instance, ref. 28 or 29) and highly inefficient from an economical perspective due to their global economic impact on all of society (see ref. 30 or 31) . in this matter, there is-to the best of our knowledge-no rational discussion in the scientific literature on what could be the best tradeoff for jointly minimizing both the health impact and the economic impact of the covid-19 crisis. perhaps the biggest ethical issue around such trade-offs is that it would require placing an explicit economic value on human lives, as discussed for instance in ref. 32 . this is something that no national or regional government in the world has apparently been willing to do. moreover, what shall one do if the health crisis remains endemic in the near future which is one of the possible scenarios (cf. section 2.2.2)? as one can see, thinking from a global rather than a purely local perspective can deeply change the way one addresses the crisis and its consequences. this situation is probably the consequence of the fact that the crisis is mainly observed on daily basis, through for instance the daily covid-19 reports provided by the world health organization, 5 by other institutions, 3 and by each local government, leading to a rather shortterm vision of the crisis. however, changing the time scale of observation gives us immediately a totally different point-of-view on the covid-19 crisis. if we are, for instance, observing the crisis at the time step of a quarter of a year (three months), it becomes almost instantaneous and can be considered as an event-in the classical meaning of synchronous modeling 33 -without any duration. thus, the choice of time step and sampling frequency is critical as it is for any control system. this perspective change forces us to think what could be the next state of the system under observation, ie, human society, which may be on its way toward a deep economic crisis, at least in western countries. continuing the analysis at the same coarse time scale, a possible catastrophic evolution scenario would be a financial crisis result-f i g u r e 2 a possible catastrophic scenario that could result from the initial covid-19 health crisis ing with some delay from an economic crisis initiated by the health crisis, thus generating the specter of a deep and prolonged recession, as pointed out as a possibility by some economists (ref. 27 or 31). moreover, this situation could then also lead to more "classical" health crises in the future (see figure 2 ) due to the two-sided coupled interaction between the public health system and the economic system. in such a catastrophic future scenario, extending the duration of people's confinement in western countries in order to minimize the short-term health impact during the initial crisis could, for instance, result in deeply debilitating the health of more or less the same population in the mid-to long-term future. such a possible paradox is typical in optimal control theory where the optimal trajectory of any nonlinear system can never be obtained through local optimizations alone. 34 in order to take into account and to avoid such paradoxical consequences, one must choose a systems approach to analyze the covid-19 crisis, integrating all existing domains of knowledge into a common understanding of the crisis, in order to obtain a global vision, both in space and time and at different possible observation scales, and thus giving a chance to find the global optimum for human society as a whole. we can thus see that there is another crisis, hidden within the covid-19 crisis, which is a crisis of models. the global community is indeed focusing on short-term health-specific models to better master the crisis, but these models are inadequate as soon as one wants to address the crisis from a longer-term society-wide perspective which requires systemic models. in this matter, let us recall that a model is an abstraction (in the meaning of abstract interpretation theory 35 ) of reality, but not reality itself, as expressed, for instance, by the famous assertion "a map is not the territory it represents, but, if correct, it has a similar structure to the territory, which accounts for its usefulness," popularized by korzybski 36 or the well-known "all models are wrong, some are useful" by box. 37 "models" which are not actually reflecting reality within some error bounds are in fact not models in that observational definition and may even have negative impacts on reality since they will lead to wrong decisions or control actions. these negative impacts of wrong "models" can of course be amplified in the context of a systemic crisis such as covid-19. our point of view is clearly supported by an analysis of the 2020 scientific literature to date. a search of the keyword "covid-19" on google scholar 38 in april 2020, revealed that, at this moment of time, only 10 papers-ie., around 1%-of the first 900 most cited papers on covid-19 were not discussing primarily health issues (health covering here biology, epidemiology, medicine, and health policy and management), but rather focusing on the societal and economic consequences of the crisis. moreover, in terms of citations, most of these 10 papers were poorly cited: two were cited around 20 times, three around 10 times, and the remaining ones less than 5 times, while the average number of citations per paper was 15 in our sample. only very few health-oriented papers, such as ref. 39 , also discuss mixed strategies involving economic or psychological considerations to fight the coronavirus. it seems therefore that the majority of the scientific effort is focused on the short-term, without taking into account what might be the mid-and long-term societal consequences of the covid-19 crisis. one may also notice that there is probably another crisis of medical models that can be observed due to the covid-19 crisis. this other crisis focuses around the merits of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a possible treatment of covid-19, as proposed by raoult and his team. 40 this has since then been shown to be a proposal which was not supported by a rigorous methodological approach according to medical methodologists. 41 however, medical statistical methodology (see ref. 42 for an introduction to this domain) appears also to be questionable from a modeling perspective: the frequency-based models used in methodological medicine usually cannot have probabilistic interpretations due to a lack of large series of experiments required to apply the law of large numbers; 43 hence such frequency-based models can only find correlations between proposed medications and observe effects on structurally limited series due to the high costs of clinical studies. 44 but since correlation is not causation, it is just not possible, without any understanding of the underlying biological mechanisms, to scientifically deduce anything from such studies, as long as we agree on the fact that science deals with causal explanations, which does however not prevent using correlation-based results from a practical perspective as soon as they are established in a sound way. 72 in this analysis, the debate around the rigor of the pragmatic and agile approach followed by raoult may just be a new popperian debate 45 opposing different medical methods for addressing an infectious health crisis, similar to the debates that existed in physics around aristotelian theory in the 16th century 46 or aether theory in the 19th century. to conclude this initial discussion on the crisis of models, we point out that if the scenario that we highlighted in figure 2 comes true, we may also eventually be forced to deal with another crisis of models, namely, the crisis of mathematical models used in finance. these other "models" are not necessarily models in the observational sense that we are using in this paper since they suffer from many well-known issues such as reflexivity, 47 which refers to the fact that mathematical financial models are essentially observing other mathematical financial models, or more deeply the lack of evidence for the market equilibrium hypothesis, 48 which is at the heart of the probabilistic framework used in mathematical finance, but which is in fact rarely observed in practice (see, for instance, ref. 48 or 49), especially in a financial crisis situation where the market is of course highly unbalanced and volatile and therefore out of equilibrium, as pointed out by several researchers. the covid-19 crisis is thus forcing us to open our eyes and to look for the "right" models to use for effectively managing human society. one should use models that are effectively capturing the reality as it is and not as we would like it to be, if we want to make nondominated decisions in the face of a crisis of such magnitude and have a chance to tackle it successfully. as stated above, there is a crucial need for constructing a realistic observational system model of the covid-19 crisis. we shall now present the main ingredients of such a systemic model. taking a systems approach leads us naturally to construct first a systemic framework for modeling the covid-19 crisis. the first step toward that objective is to understand what are the main systems 10 involved in or impacted by the crisis. in that respect, the following ones are quite obvious: • the natural environment from which the coronavirus which initiated the crisis is coming, • the social system, which contains the population that is or can be infected by the coronavirus, • the health system which attempts to cure the people infected by the coronavirus, • the governance system which has to choose the optimal health policy to face the pandemic, • the economic system which may be indirectly impacted by the covid-19 crisis. note that the impact of the covid-19 crisis on the economic system depends of course on the health policy choosen by the governance (political) system. if a health policy recommends or forces-as often done 5 -a large fraction of its population to stay home, it causes a double shock, 31 first on the supply side since economic actors which are lacking a work force must reduce their production and secondly on the demand side since people who are not working anymore are usually paid less or not at all and thus are also consuming less. we can now sketch the first item of our generic covid-19 systemic framework which is the high-level environment 10 that we modeled in figure 3 . this first system view exposes the exchanges of matter, people, information, and money-plus coronavirus here-that exist between the main systems involved in the covid-19 crisis. note that the overall system taken into account here, ie., human society as a whole, including its natural environment, is a closed system on our home planet earth. as a consequence, the only levers to solve the crisis are internal to this global system. using that technique, the point is thus to be able to construct realistic domain-specific lifecycle scenarios for each system involved in the covid-19 environment. we first focus only on the social and economic systems, since we are considering here the situation that occurs after the end of the covid-19 health crisis (see figure 2 ). we can then see that: • the lifecycle of the social system can be analyzed to first order in terms of wealth and health, where these features can be, respectively, in a systems approach, we will thus have to construct the different possible global lifecycle scenarios that can be achieved in this way (see figure 4 for an illustration of this classical process), to evaluate their probabilities and to define means to mitigate the worst consequences. to obtain more detailed models, we shall moreover refine them in terms of space, to capture the geographic dimension of human society, and time, and to make optimal trade-off decisions between the shortand long-term impact of the covid-19 crisis. note also that these lifecycle scenarios are of course highly country-dependent due to the central role of the governance system in the resolution of the covid-19 crisis, as well as the susceptibility of the population which is an initial condition. the last element of our covid-19 systemic framework is finally a mission statement, 10 ie, the core high level requirement regarding human society which expresses the objective that the governance system wants to fulfill. one can indeed understand that the behavior of our system of interest-human society-will be different depending on whether one wants to minimize the impact of the covid-19 crisis on the social, health, or economic system or to find the best balance between the impacts on these three systems. this is a multiobjective optimization problem for which we provide a sample result below, and that we intend to explore more in details in a forthcoming paper. it is therefore of high importance-as system theory tells us (see refs. 10, 14, or 16)-to be able to clearly define the mission to achieve. taking a systems approach to the covid-19 crisis requires instantiating our systemic framework per country. each country has its own specificities, associated with its own history and culture, that one must consider in any systems approach: for instance, chinese traditional medicine and rigorous group behaviors are specific to china, while a centralized governance system and poorly followed health rules are specific to france, while a heterogeneous health system that favors more affluent consumers and differentiated laws and policies by state are specific to the united states of america. these types of compartmental models have significant limitations since they only consider the human population in a macroscopic way, reacting globally in a uniform manner to an epidemic, which is not the case in reality. furthermore, in a classic sird model, eventually 100% of the population is infected, which is never observed in practice. in the covid-19 pandemic, one can also observe clusters where the epidemic seems to recursively focus, 5 which rather suggests a fractal epidemic propagation, as also mentioned in an older paper by jansse et al in 1999 55 which did not seem to have been further explored by the epidemiology community. such fractal behavior is however not at all captured by the classical sird-like compartmental models. note also that, quite surprisingly, we did not find significant scientific papers studying the geometric multiscale structure of the geography of the covid-19 pandemic, which also suggests that this dimension has not yet been analyzed in depth. in order to better integrate geography, which is one of the most important features of the human population system, we choose a as, for instance, in ref. 56 . in such an approach, the human population is modeled as a network, that is to say a nondirected graph, 57 where each node of the network represents an individual or a group of people, eg., a family, and each edge represents a connection between people. for the purpose of our study, we used networks randomly generated according to the barabási-albert model, 58 which is believed to capture the most important features of real social networks. we shall recall that the barabási-albert model generates networks by introducing nodes one by one (after an initial step). a degree d is chosen for each new node, which is then connected to d other nodes chosen at random from the nodes already in the network. to simulate a social network, the average value of the degree d is usually chosen between 2 and 3. the barabási-albert model produces randomized scale-free networks in which most of the nodes have a low degree (below 10), but some may have a very high degree. in order to understand how an epidemic propagates in a population modeled in this way, we used networks with 100 000 nodes and an average degree d for new nodes of 2.1. with these features, the degree of nodes in a social network is typically distributed as shown in table 1 . potential "superspreaders" are individuals with large degree >20. to model the propagation of an epidemic in this network, we discretized a classical sird-like model (see refs. 52 and 54 and figure 5 ) which leads us to represent the evolution of the state of each f i g u r e 6 stochastic state automaton modeling the possible evolution of a node in the social network node of the social network that models the human population by a stochastic finite automaton whose possible transitions are described in typically gaussian-for incubation and sickness times. we, however, think that our experiments can give us a better qualitative understanding of epidemic propagation since we believe that this social-network approach better captures the fundamentals of the social system, compared to the simpler compartment-type models. it may thus be helpful for constructing more realistic epidemic propagation models, even if it would require a very significant amount of data collection and fine tuning. the use of contact tracers in health systems is, for instance, a direct, but laborious, way to reconstruct such social networks to quickly identify infected people and to isolate them before they infect others. 60 our first experiment consisted of simulating increasingly virulent epidemics by assuming increasing values of the probability ρ of infecting somebody (1000 trials were done per value of ρ). our results are described in table 2 . they show a remarkably interesting phenomenon: for all values of the probability ρ, only a tiny fraction π of the population is eventually infected in most of the number ν of simulations (less than 1 of 1000 persons in more than 90% of the cases), or when a significant proportion (greater than 1%) is infected, the fraction of infected people π depends on ρ. in simpler terms, this can be stated as follows: there are a lot of viruses circulating in the population, but only a few of them give rise to epidemic outbreaks. the reasons for which a virus gives rise to an epidemic outbreak are intrinsic to the virus itself, but ta b l e 2 proportion π of the population that is infected, for different values of the propagation probability ρ. also dependent on external factors such as who is infected first, eg, a person with few contacts and low nodal degree or a superspreader with high nodal degree as shown in table 1 , and also the behavior of the population which impacts ρ. this may explain, at least to some extent, why some countries or regions are more stricken than others, which suggests again a fractal interpretation of the geographical scope of an epidemic, as already mentioned above. the second experiment that we shall report on in this section aimed at studying the effects of the deconfinement of a confined population that has been ordered to shelter-in-place. we studied here different proportions τ of the population that becomes sick before the epidemic becomes observable (ie., roughly between day 10 and 20 in figure 5) and different values of the duration γ in terms of days of confinement. we considered that there was a delay δ of 20 days before confinement was put in place and took ρ = 0.015. we also simulated the efficiency of the confinement by reducing the capacity of edges in the social network to propagate the disease by a factor 1 − ε with 0 ≤ ε ≤ 1. this factor represents the degree of adherence of the population to sanitary guidelines for social distancing, wearing face masks, and so forth. at each step of the simulation, representing one day, an infected node has thus probability ρ × (1 − ε) to infect an adjacent healthy node. in our experiment, we took ε = 0.66 (= 2/3). we then reported the computed values of the resulting lethality in table 3 . we assumed that γ is as large as necessary, which is clearly not realistic since confinement cannot be maintained too long for both economic and psychological reasons, but the results give the underlying trend. each measure reported was obtained by means of a monte-carlo simulation of 2000 trials. as expected, the longer the confinement, the fewer deaths. note however that, to be fully efficient, the confinement must be rather long, several months (>90 days) in our virtual experiment. the most interesting part of this experiment comes however from the observation of the total duration of the epidemic outbreak. table 4 shows these durations for the same values of τ and γ as in table 3 . if the confinement is sufficiently long, the lethality drops significantly (in some cases below 1%), but also the total duration of the epidemic outbreak is shortened. if the confinement is not maintained sufficiently long, it is still partially effective, in that it reduces the lethality, but it has a quite paradoxical consequence: the epidemic outbreak lasts longer than if no countermeasures were taken at all. a short confinement does not prevent the disease from significantly propagating: it just slows down the propagation and avoids the sharp peak of infected shown in figure 5 around day 40, which seems to be its main motivation in order not to overwhelm the capacity of the health care system. for this reason, when the population is deconfined too early, the disease is still present and remains endemic. the above experiments do not pretend to fully represent reality, but are just to motivate the use of social-network models for epidemic modeling. as pointed out by stattner and vidot, 56 "network models turn out to be a more realistic approach than simple models like compartment or metapopulation models, since they are more suited to the complexity of real relationships." one of the limitations of existing network models is, however, that they do not distinguish between recurring social links with family members and coworkers and casual links based on one-time encounters such as in public transportation or at large events. they should therefore be further refined and integrated into a model-based agile approach for crisis management, while taking into account their limitations. in this section, we model the potential impact of the epidemic as a function of different actions of the governance system on the economic system (see figure 3 ). in order to do so we must expand the prior analysis by not only considering lethality in terms of deaths (see table 3 ), but also the value of lost economic activity during confinement. reverting back to the simplified sird model in figure 5 , but now accounting for the fraction of population ε actually adhering to confinement during a lockdown of duration γ, which is ordered with some delay δ after a critical cumulative threshold τ of the population has become infected, we run a set of simulations. the baseline run of the model shown in figure 5 is considered as scenario 0 with no countermeasures and it is gradually modified using the one-factor-at-a-time (ofat) technique to test a number of actions by the governance system, including reducing the delay δ to order a lockdown, increasing the level of rigor ε of the confinement, as well as its duration γ . table 5 shows the results of a number of numerical experiments to probe these trade-off in terms of the value of human lives lost, versus productive work lost in the economic system. in order to estimate the economic impact of the epidemic a number of assumptions were made: in the baseline scenario 0, we do not take any countermeasures and the bulk of the $4.38b total loss is due to the deaths of 4% of the population. the $312m in lost work are due to the inability of the infected and sick population to perform work during their illness, which is assumed to last for 14 days. this is the kind of situation we would expect to see in a country with a government that is either unable or unwilling to intervene in the crisis. scenarios 1-3 institute a partial lockdown (ε = 66%) after either 10 or 20 days delay after recognizing the onset of the epidemic and the confinement lasts either 30 or 60 days. the results are not satisfactory, since the total damages exceed the baseline case where no action is taken. this outcome is due to the fact that one-third of the population does not adhere to the confinement and continues to be infected, making the disease endemic. a prolonged partial lockdown for 60 days with only 66% effectiveness as shown in scenario 3 is the worst case and leads to both a high number of deaths (about 4000) as well as high economic damages totaling $6.1b due to the prolonged shutdown, which ultimately is ineffective. this scenario is representative of the overall situation in the united states in mid2020. in scenarios 4-7, we shorten the reaction time to trigger the confinement after only five days (quick government action) and we gradually increase the rigor of the confinement to 90% (strong government enforcement). it turns out that these actions are highly effective, yielding a best-case scenario 7 with only 66 deaths, a short epidemic duration of 61 days and only $740m in damages, mainly due to the strict but short 30-day confinement in which 90% of the population participates. this essentially prevents the epidemic from blossoming and quickly snuffs out the disease. the ta b l e 5 scenario analysis with sird model for assessing total human and economic damages: n, number of daily contacts, ρ, probability of infection, τ, fraction of population infected to trigger confinement, ε, fraction of population adhering to confinement, δ, delay to confinement start, γ, confinement duration, t, duration of epidemic, total number of deaths, lost work in millions $m, and total damages including lost human lives and lost work in billions $b, n = 100,000 population size figure 7 . this may reflect the situation in countries that the economic analysis shows that the initial conditions, speed of response, and rigor of response by the governance system are crucial in determining the outcome. figures 8 and 9 , respectively, show the sharp contrast between the ratio of human loss (deaths) and economic work loss for scenarios 0 (do nothing) and scenario 5 (rapid and strong government response). there is indeed a trade-off between deaths and lost work, as in sce in the previous section, we identified a deep crisis of models that has been exposed by the covid-19 pandemic and proposed to mitigate this issue by constructing a systemic model of the crisis. in this section, we shall deal with some possible solutions to master the crisis using a systems approach. as is well known in any scientific discipline, the solution of a problem highly depends on the clarity and rigor of the way the problem is framed. we will therefore dedicate this short section to the statement of the problem that we need to solve in the context of the covid-19 crisis. a first characteristic of the covid-19 crisis is its global impact on human society. this crisis can thus be considered as a common cause failure-in the meaning of system safety theory 61 -for all main systems forming human society. if we are taking a safety approach, the first problem to solve is thus to mitigate the impacts of the crisis on the vulnerable systems forming human society, that is to say the social, health, and economic systems, as results from the system analysis of section 2.2.1. a second characteristic of the covid-19 crisis comes from the need to take into account strong feedback delays. in this matter, a first type of delay comes from the fact that it is most of the time too late for deploying mitigation actions to limit the epidemic propagation when significant numbers of infections are observed somewhere, since the effects of these actions will only be observable two weeks later. this was clearly shown in table 5 in scenarios 8-10. moreover, a secondtotally different type of delay comes from the fact that focusing on short-term health impacts of the crisis may lead to long-term issues of an economic nature, which forces to arbitrate between short-and longterm consequences of a given action. finally, a last characteristic of the covid-19 crisis is uncertainty. due to the global nature of the crisis and the rather short period of time on which it is concentrated, uncertainty is everywhere. clinical data about the infection are permanently partial, so difficult to interpret. understanding of the real social system network structure is never easy to capture. the exact nature and size of the impact on the economic system are difficult to evaluate. precise data on the capabilities on which to rely may be tricky to obtain. last, but not least, the crisis also results in a massive, heterogeneous and often contradictory amount of data in which the really interesting signals may be either weak or hidden. synthesizing these three features of the crisis, the problem to solve in our context can now be clearly stated: how to optimally mitigate the short-and long-term consequences of the covid-19 pandemic on human society, taking into account delays and uncertainties that are specific to this crisis? one can notice that this statement is a typical control problemin the sense of control theory 62 -integrating here delay and uncertainty, which can be addressed by many existing techniques (see refs. 63 and 64) . consequently, the objective should be to design a new system that can support this controllability objective. based on the closed-loop control principle, which is the only one that allows to achieve a given target behavior along the time axis, 62 such a f i g u r e 1 0 high-level covid-19 environment integrating a specific decision-aid system that has yet to be designed covid-19 decision-aid system (shown as the gray box at the top of figure 10 ) will have to measure the current state of the main systems forming human society in order to provide effective feedback actions on the social system through the governance system, the only legitimate one to make decisions and take control actions. figure 10 depicts how such a decision-aid system could be integrated into the high-level covid-19 environment. there is at least one domain where making decisions under structural uncertainties on an underlying geographic scope is quite well known since a long time in human history, which is the military domain. architecting a covid-19 decision-aid system using the typical architectural pattern of a computerized, command, control, and communications (c4) system (see ref. 65 or 66) , used in the defense area, seems thus quite a natural idea, as it is also quite often used in a system-of-systems engineering context (see ref. 18 or 19) . this leads us to propose an organization for a covid-19 decision-aid system based on the following three hierarchical layers, that correspond to three natural levels of abstraction associated with a given geographic scope (that may be either the international, country, and local levels or country, region, and city levels in practice), exactly like c4 systems are organized: 1. the strategic layer is the place where global situational awareness is required to master the crisis on a given large-scale geographic scope: its mission is to monitor at a high level the crisis and to elaborate strategic decisions based on an overall vision, fed by tactical information; 2. the operation layer is intended to master the crisis on a given medium-scale geographic scope: it is thus a distributed system which has to capture and synthesize tactical information and make operational decisions on their basis in accordance with the upper strategic decisions; 3. the tactical layer is intended to master the crisis on a local geographic scope: it is thus again a distributed system which has to capture and synthetize field information and make tactical decisions on their basis in accordance with the upper operational decisions. note that this architecture shown in figure 11 shall be understood as a hierarchical enterprise architecture, which defines how an organizational system, supported by suitable information systems and systemic models as discussed previously, shall be organized and behave. the main idea underpinning it is the principle of subsidiarity: decisions should be taken as close as possible to the level that is the most appropriate for their resolution. this principle means in particular that an upper level shall avoid to make decisions that are too intrusive at a lower level in order to let each local level take always the more appropriate actions depending on the real local conditions that it can observe, while following at the same time global orientations when locally relevant. this is crucial in the military sphere, but even more so in the context of the covid-19 crisis where speed of decision making is fundamental due to the latency of the epidemic propagation as seen in section 2. note that one shall also capture weak signals of systemic importance at each level of the proposed architecture: to illustrate that point, the fact that a police officer is infected in a certain area is, for instance, a typical weak signal since we may infer from it that there is a certain probability that the whole police force in the concerned area is or will be infected, at least in the near future (since the number of daily contacts or nodal degree of police officers may exceed n > 10, see tables 1 and 5 ). proposing the previous hierarchical architectural pattern is, however, of course not enough to specify how a covid-19 decision-aid system shall work. in this matter, the first point is to organize the systemic model that we sketched out in section 2.2 according to the hierarchy that we just presented and which is used to organize the proposed decision-aid system. hence, such a model shall not be monolast, but not least, the covid-19 decision-aid system that we sketched here shall behave in an agile way, in the meaning of agility in software or industrial development (see refs. 68-70, 71 or 24) . a pending problem is to have a plan, do, check, and act process that can quickly adapt to a quite fast-changing reality. agility allows to solve that issue by structuring in a very rigorous way the analysis, decision, and action processes, while providing a lot of flexibility to all involved actors, which are two mandatory features for addressing a complex crisis like covid-19. in practice, an agile covid-19 decision-aid process has typically to be organized around regular agile rituals-managed in this paper, we draw attention to the core importance of having realistic system models to manage and to mitigate a systemic crisis of the order of magnitude such as the covid-19 crisis. we also sketched out what could be an agile approach to use in this kind of crisis. our purpose was of course not to propose some definitive solution which is probably impossible. we do, however, think that the ideas contained in this paper are valuable contributions that may be of interest in the context of the covid-19 crisis, especially due to the fact the underlying health crisis will probably be endemic for a certain period of time (at least for 200-300 days according to most of our simulation runs) and be coupled with future short-and mid-term economic outcomes. while there are economic impacts due to strong mitigation actions such as mandated confinements (causing lost economic activity), the value loss due to human deaths at an estimated lethality rate of 4% would far exceed the economic losses. we have shown that this depends strongly on the average valuation of a human life, which is in itself a highly controversial issue. there are of course many detailed aspects of the proposed covid-19 decision support system that require further detail and elaboration. we focused on the issue of delay and rigor of action in the overall epidemic control system in this paper. however, as we discover more about the particular nature of this particular coronavirus, the issue of observability of human society (testing) may for instance be an even larger one. the epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of covid-19) -china report of the who-china joint mission on coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). who; 2020 statistics and research -coronavirus pandemic (covid-19). our world in data covid-19) situation reports the site of origin of the 1918 influenza pandemic and its public health implications clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in wuhan, china evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside hubei province, china: a descriptive and modelling study a novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in china cesames systems architecting method -a pocket guide. cesames strategic engineering -designing systems for an uncertain future. mit the art of systems architecting the systems approach: fresh solutions 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macroeconomic impacts of covid-19: seven scenarios how will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the covid-19 epidemic? covid-19 cases per million inhabitants: a comparison. statista confronting the crisis: priorities for the global economy we pay minimum five times as much for a life year with the corona measures than we normal do embedded system design. kluwer adaptive control processes: a guided tour abstract interpretation: a unified lattice model for static analysis of programs by construction or approximation of fixpoints science and sanity-an introduction to non-aristotelian systems and general semantics. the international non-aristotelian library pub all models are wrong, but some are useful the publish or perish book. melbourne: tarma software research pty ltd combining behavioral economics and infectious disease epidemiology to mitigate the covid-19 outbreak hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of covid-19: results of an open-label non-randomized clinical trial statistical review of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of covid-19: results of an open-label non-randomized clinical trial clinical research methodology and evidence-based medicine: the basics. anshan ltd an introduction to probability theory and its applications. vols. i and ii clinical trial cost is a fraction of the drug development bill, with an average price tag of 19 m$. outsourcing pharma conjectures and refutations: the growth of scientific knowledge. london and new york: basic books galileo studies. branch line reflexivity in credit markets. california institute of technology the flawed foundations of general equilibrium: critical essays on economic theory financial crisis dynamics: attempt to define a market instability indicator a theory of timed automata a contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics mathematical structure of epidemic systems an introduction to infectious disease modelling lévy-flight spreading of epidemic processes leading to percolating clusters social network analysis in epidemiology: current trends and perspectives the theory of graphs and its applications statistical mechanics of complex networks statistical mechanics of cellular automata cluster-based epidemic control through smartphone-based body area networks system reliability theory-models mathematical control theory: deterministic finite dimensional systems uncertainty and control control of time-delay systems understanding command and control. washington, dc: us department of defense ccrp publication series joint chiefs of staff. doctrine for command, control, communications, and computer (c4) systems support to optimal treatment of an sir epidemic model with time delay agile manifesto a decade of agile methodologies: towards explaining agile software development agile systems engineering national heart institute, national institutes of health, public health service, federal security agency. epidemiological approaches to heart disease: the framingham study. joint session of the epidemiology, health officers, medical care, and statistics sections of the american public health association multiple risk functions for predicting coronary heart disease: the concept, accuracy, and application the authors would like to thank the three anonymous referees for their valuable comments which contributed to a substantial improvement of the paper. we would finally like to stress the fact that systems engineering has an important role to play in the covid-19 context since it can enable the necessary collaboration of the various disciplines-such as biology, economics, engineering, epidemiology, finance, geography, health policy management, immunology, logistics, manufacturing, medicine, safety, sociology, urban systems, and so forth-that are all providing a piece of the complex puzzle posed by the global covid-19 crisis. key: cord-018917-7px75s3c authors: hopkins, richard s.; magnuson, j. a. title: informatics in disease prevention and epidemiology date: 2013-07-29 journal: public health informatics and information systems doi: 10.1007/978-1-4471-4237-9_14 sha: doc_id: 18917 cord_uid: 7px75s3c this chapter provides a description of the components of disease prevention and control programs, and then focuses on information systems designed to support public health surveillance, epidemiologic investigation of cases and outbreaks, and case management. for each such system, we describe sources used to acquire necessary data for use by public health agencies, and the technology used to clean, manage, organize, and display the information. we discuss challenges and successes in sharing information among these various systems, and opportunities presented by emerging technologies. systems to support public health surveillance may support traditional passive case-reporting, as enhanced by electronic laboratory reporting and (emerging) direct reporting from electronic health records, and also a wide variety of different surveillance systems. we address syndromic surveillance and other novel approaches including registries for reporting and follow-up of cases of cancer, birth defects, lead poisoning, hepatitis b, etc., and population-based surveys (such as brfss or prams). systems to support epidemiologic investigation of outbreaks and clusters include generic tools such as excel, sas, spss, and r, and specialized tool-kits for epidemiologic analysis such as epi-info. in addition to supporting outbreak investigation, agencies also need systems to collect and manage summary information about outbreaks, investigations, and responses. systems to support case management, contact tracing, and case-based disease control interventions are often integrated to some degree with surveillance systems. we focus on opportunities and choices in the design and implementation of these systems. systems to support case management, contact tracing, and case-based disease control interventions are often integrated to some degree with surveillance systems. we focus on opportunities and choices in the design and implementation of these systems. public health programs to prevent disease typically have been designed and implemented one disease at a time. each disease has its own patterns of distribution in populations, risk factors, and optimal and practical intervention strategies that are effective in controlling, preventing, or even eliminating cases of the disease. for example, an important strategy to prevent measles is vaccination, the main strategy to prevent gonorrhea is antibiotic treatment of case contacts before they become ill themselves, an important strategy to prevent cervical cancer is screening with pap smears and treatment of preclinical disease, and the main strategy for prevention of neural tube defects is folic acid supplementation of selected foods. still, each disease prevention program's components are drawn from a relatively short list: • planning and evaluation • public health surveillance • outbreak or cluster recognition and response • policy and guidance development • clinical services -screening -immunization -prophylaxis -treatment • laboratory services • case-contact identifi cation and interventions • education and training for clinicians • public education • regulation (for example, of food services, drinking water, child-care centers, hospitals, etc.) • administration and fi nancial management ideally, program managers choose the most effective combination of these program components to prevent or control the disease or diseases they are charged with addressing. however, as this must be done within the constraints imposed by the available funds, cost-effectiveness is the usual criterion for choosing the preferred combination of program components. public health agencies typically are organized both by disease and by function. for example, each disease-specifi c program usually does not have its own laboratory, and a single public health clinical facility and its staff may provide varied services such as immunizations for well children, treatment of people with tuberculosis (tb) and their contacts, and pap smear services. to variable degrees, they may even combine activities in a single patient encounter, for example, testing women for gonorrhea and chlamydia trachomatis infections at the same visit where they get a pap smear, or offering hepatitis b vaccination during a visit for sexually transmitted diseases (std) treatment. as information technology has become more widely used in public health and replaced paper-based systems, it has typically been implemented program area by program area, as resources became available. this has led to the creation of information 'silos.' for example, laboratory information systems usually have developed in isolation from those to support clinical care or public health surveillance. information systems to support clinical operations of public health departments (for example, clinical services for stds, childhood immunizations, hiv/aids, tb, or family planning services) have characteristics similar to those of other electronic health record systems in ambulatory care. however, in some health departments, clinical information systems have been separated by disease or clinic. if one were to design information systems from scratch for a set of disease prevention programs, there would be potential savings and effi ciencies from identifying the ways that one program component depends on information from another, or can serve multiple programs, and then designing the system to provide that information seamlessly. one can identify potential effi ciencies from two perspectives: in reality, it is rare to have an opportunity to design such extensive information systems as a single project. one is dealing with numerous legacy systems that were designed to support program-specifi c workfl ows. so a key challenge for the public health informaticist is to help their agency make decisions about where information system 'integration' will yield substantial benefi ts and where it will not. for example, if it is desired to know (one time) how many people in the jurisdiction have been reported during a particular time interval with both syphilis and hepatitis b, one could do an ad hoc match of information in two independent surveillance information systems. this task might take an analyst a few days or weeks to accomplish -which is almost certainly inexpensive compared to the cost of building a new information system that could do this task almost immediately. for many purposes, it may be useful and suffi cient to be able to display multiple streams of surveillance or programmatic data in the same environment, on the same screen or even in the same chart. in florida, de-identifi ed reportable disease case information and death certifi cate information are imported into the essence analytic environment that was originally designed for syndromic surveillance [ 1 ] , so that trends for similar conditions by age, sex, and geographic area in the two data streams can be easily compared. on the other hand, if it is desired to have real-time information available to the std clinic staff about past diagnoses of hepatitis b, or about past receipt of hepatitis b vaccine, then information systems need to be designed to support this kind of look-up; the usual solution is a shared person index between the two systems. alternatively, a common data repository can be designed in which all information about each person is permanently linked. as mentioned earlier, there are a number of components common to disease control and prevention programs. in this chapter, we will address information systems designed to support the following: • public health surveillance • outbreak or cluster recognition and response • acquisition of laboratory information • case-contact identifi cation and intervention cdc defi nes public health surveillance as "the ongoing, systematic collection, analysis, and interpretation of health data, essential to the planning, implementation, and evaluation of public health practice, closely integrated with the dissemination of these data to those who need to know and linked to prevention and control" [ 2 ] . each word of this defi nition is carefully chosen, and has implications for the design of surveillance information systems. a one-time data collection activity is not surveillance. data collection for research purposes is not surveillance. surveillance data are collected to support public health action, and analyses and recommendations based on these data must be shared with those who provided the data and with others who need to know. objectives of surveillance systems differ at the local, state, and federal levels [ 3 ] . at the local level, immediate response to individual cases is relatively more important, while at the federal level the analysis of larger-scale patterns is the most important function of surveillance. for state health departments, both uses of surveillance data may be important, depending on the disease and the size of the state. public health surveillance systems may be based on data capture from a variety of sources, including case reports, population-based surveys, sentinel providers, electronic health records (including laboratory information management systems for elr and emergency department records for syndromic surveillance), or administrative data (like hospital or physician claims for reimbursement). for some noninfectious diseases, surveillance is carried out through registries (see below). information systems to support reportable disease surveillance contain records representing case reports that currently are, for the most part, entered manually into an application by public health staff, based on information received from doctors, infection control practitioners, hospitals, and laboratories. increasingly, the laboratory information in these records comes from electronic records transmitted by the public health laboratory, hospital laboratories, and commercial laboratories, when there is a positive result meeting certain reporting criteria (like a positive igm antibody test for hepatitis a). these records typically contain a combination of clinical, laboratory, and epidemiologic information about each case. in future, increasing proportions of these case reports will be entered directly into a website by the practitioner creating the case report, or be transmitted electronically from the practitioner's electronic health record (ehr) system. currently almost half the states in the us use the cdc-provided nedss base system (nbs) as their platform for managing case reports. the remainder use either a system developed in-house or one of several commercially-available solutions [ 4 ] . in case-based surveillance practice, there is usually a relatively short list of required elements in the initial case report. for some diseases this is the only information received on all cases. for other diseases, usually of more importance and with lower case numbers, an additional data collection form is initiated by the receiving health department, which gathers information as appropriate from the ill person, the treating physician, and health records. the optimum amount of information to collect in the initial case report, as opposed to the disease-specifi c case report form, is a matter of judgment and may change as technology changes. in a largely manual system, health departments typically desire to minimize barriers to reporting of cases, so the incentive is to keep the initial case report form short. if much of the information desired for the disease-specifi c case report form can in fact be extracted from an electronic medical record with no additional effort by the person making an electronic case report, then the balance changes. careful decisions are needed: for which cases of which diseases are follow-up interviews necessary [ 5 ] ? until very recently, virtually all of the case-based surveillance information used at the federal level was collected initially at the local (or sometimes state) level, where it was used in the fi rst instance for local response. as the case report information passes from the local to the state to the federal level, it is subjected to validation and cleaning: cases not meeting the surveillance case defi nition have been removed from the data submitted to the federal level, missing data have been fi lled in to the extent possible, and cases have been classifi ed as to whether they are confi rmed, probable, or suspected using standard national surveillance case defi nitions (these case defi nitions are developed by the council of state and territorial epidemiologists in consultation with cdc) [ 6 ] . more recently, advances in technology have allowed case reports, and the information on which they are based, to move almost instantaneously from electronic health record systems, maintained by doctors, hospitals, and laboratories, to public health authorities. there are no technical barriers to these data being available at the federal level essentially as early as they are at the local and state levels. this ready availability of unfi ltered clinical information may allow more rapid awareness by public health offi cials at all levels of individual cases of high-priority diseases (like botulism or hemorrhagic fevers like ebola virus infection), and thus lead to more rapid detection and characterization of likely outbreaks. the simultaneous availability of raw data to multiple agencies at different levels of government also presents certain challenges. the user at the local level will have ready access to information from many sources about local conditions and events, and can use this information to interpret local observations. they will be in a position to understand when an apparent anomaly in their surveillance data is due to an artifact or to local conditions that are not a cause for alarm. they will also know whether a problem is already under investigation. a user at a state or federal level will be able to see patterns over a larger area, and thus may be able to identify multijurisdictional outbreaks, patterns, or trends that are not evident at a local level. the fact that several users may be examining the same raw data at the same time requires that these multiple users be in frequent communication about what they are seeing in their data and which apparent anomalies are already explained or need further investigation. there is a danger that users at a higher level may prematurely disseminate or act on information that, while based on facts, is incomplete or misleading. similarly, users at a local level may not realize that what they are seeing is part of a larger phenomenon. in the syndromic surveillance domain, the biosense 2.0 governance group [ 7 ] has adopted a set of etiquette principles which participating jurisdictions will be required to agree to, that spell out the mutual obligations of analysts at each level of the system (scott gordon , association of state and territorial health offi cials, 2013, personal communication). from an information management perspective, an important question is where to put human review of case reports in this information fl ow. for example, it is becoming technically possible for likely cases of reportable diseases to be recognized automatically in health care electronic record systems. some of these could be passed on to public health authorities without human review, in the same way that reportable laboratory results are already passed on in electronic laboratory reporting (elr). for which constellations of fi ndings in the electronic health record would this be appropriate? should some electronic case reports generated by electronic health record systems be passed to state or even federal public health offi cials before they are reviewed and validated at the local or state levels? if so, which ones? as always, there is a tension between the speed of information fl ow and its quality and completeness. there is a need for research to determine which constellations of fi ndings in electronic health records have adequate specifi city and sensitivity to warrant automated identifi cation of a person as being likely to have a case of a reportable disease. the acceptable sensitivity and specifi city will vary by disease. in 2001, cdc published the updated guidelines for evaluating public health surveillance systems [ 8 ] . this document identifi es a set of key attributes of surveillance systems to be assessed during a surveillance system evaluation, including simplicity, fl exibility, data quality, acceptability, sensitivity, predictive value positive, representativeness, timeliness, and stability. these are also useful attributes to consider when designing a surveillance information system [ 9 ] . the relative importance of these attributes will vary depending on the condition under surveillance and the main purposes for surveillance. for example, a surveillance system to detect cases of botulism for immediate public health response puts a high premium on timeliness, and its operators are likely to be willing to accept a modest number of false-positive reports (a lower positive predictive value ) in order to assure that reports are received very quickly. on the other hand, surveillance to support planning of cancer prevention programs and treatment services is less time-sensitive, given the quite long incubation periods for most cancers, and therefore more concerned with diagnostic accuracy of every case report than with speed of reporting. timeliness, positive predictive value, and sensitivity of a public health surveillance system are always in tension with each other; increasing two of these always compromises the third. in systems based on case-reporting from doctors, hospitals, and laboratories, and receipt of electronic health records from these same organizations, records for an individual can in principle be linked with records for that same individual in numerous public health information systems, including those supporting clinical service, immunization registries, case investigation, partner or contact identifi cation, partner or contact notifi cation, and provision of interventions to partners or contacts. sometimes this will be done best by automated messaging of structured data from one system to another, sometimes by supporting real-time look-up capabilities, and sometimes by development of a master person index to underlie some or all of these applications. one key decision is which application to consider as the hub for this information sharing, for example, the surveillance application itself or a clinical application. surveillance systems that are based on sample surveys (such as the behavioral risk factor surveillance system, brfss [ 10 ] ), on sentinel practices (such as ili-net for surveillance of infl uenza-like illness [ 11 ] ) or on syndromic surveillance do not have individual patient identifi ers, and so intrinsically cannot be linked at the individual level to information systems supporting other disease control program components. their data are typically managed in systems built on standard statistical software packages, or other independent systems. syndromic surveillance systems are based on rapid acquisition of unfi ltered, real-time, electronic records without individual identifi ers from hospital emergency rooms [ 12 ] and urgent care centers, and also, increasingly, from outpatient physicians' offi ces and from hospital admissions [ 13 ] . the primary purpose of these systems is to support detection and characterization of community disease outbreaks, as they are refl ected in care received at emergency departments, physicians' offi ces, or hospitals. each visit to an emergency department is assigned to a category or syndrome , based on words and strings contained in the patient's chief complaint and/or the triage nurse's notes. as the records received by the health department do not have individual identifi ers, they cannot be linked to records in other information systems. however, records received by the syndromic surveillance system should contain unique identifi ers that could allow the epidemiologist analyzing the data to work back through the sending facility to an identifi ed clinical record. this traceback might become necessary if the person appeared to have a case of a reportable disease or to be part of a signifi cant outbreak. adding outpatient visits and hospital admissions to the scope of syndromic surveillance is opening up additional uses for this technology, especially in the areas of real-time non-infectious disease surveillance. surveillance for cancers [ 14 ] , stroke [ 15 ] , birth defects [ 16 ] , and some other chronic diseases like amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (als) is carried out through registries. registries are usually established by specifi c legislation, and typically relate to a single topic -for example a registry of records for a disease, or of immunization records. registries may be restricted to a geographic region. a distinctive feature of registries is that individual case reports are kept open for long periods of time, up to several or many years, allowing additional information about treatment, hospitalization, and death or other outcomes to be added. registries thus serve as systems to monitor type, duration, and outcome of treatment for these diseases, in addition to the occurrence of new cases of disease (disease incidence ). they may also support outreach efforts to patients or their families, as a way to document that appropriate steps have been taken to link patients to needed types and sources of care. most cases recorded in state-level cancer registries are acquired from hospitallevel registries, using an electronic case report in a standardized format [ 17 ] . some case abstracts are obtained directly by registry personnel or contractors, when hospitals do not have suitable registries of their own. case reports require extensive review and abstraction of medical records by trained workers. birth defect registries may also be built by active search for cases in hospital and other medical records, and abstraction of those records to make case reports. they also may be built by electronically linking records from vital statistics (birth and death records), centralized hospital discharge record systems, and clinical service providers for children with birth defects (such as state programs for children with special medical needs) [ 18 ] . the latter are much less expensive to develop but cannot be assumed to have captured all cases of the disease under surveillance, or captured them correctly [ 19 ] . a disease outbreak is defi ned as a number of cases greater than the number expected during a particular time interval in a geographic area or population. this term usually is used for events due to infectious diseases, and sometimes for those of toxic origin. a similar increase above expected numbers for a non-infectious disease, such as birth defects or cancer, is usually called a cluster . outbreaks and clusters may be due to diseases for which individual cases are reportable (like shigellosis or breast cancer), or diseases for which they are not (like food poisoning due to staphylococcal or clostridium perfringens toxins in most states, sars when it was new, or multiple sclerosis). surveillance systems are designed to facilitate recognition of outbreaks or clusters by frequent examination of the most current information available. the design of the user interface is particularly important. the interface should allow users to: fl exibly display line lists, bar charts by date of event (epidemic curves), and maps of location of cases; fl exibly select subsets of cases for display; apply appropriate statistical tests to detect improbable increases in case counts; and display multiple streams of data on the same chart. for example, users may want to display the epidemic curve of an infl uenza outbreak for several different regions of a state or for several different age groups, or to display counts of positive infl uenza tests and emergency department visits for infl uenza-like illness on the same graph with different scales for each. syndromic surveillance systems have been leaders in developing and evaluating statistical algorithms for automated detection of anomalies which may, on investigation, turn out to be outbreaks. such algorithms have less frequently been applied for automated detection of possible outbreaks or clusters in reportable disease data streams. most outbreaks and clusters are in fact not recognized by examination of regularly-collected surveillance system data. instead, they are recognized by private citizens (such as the organizer of a social event, a teacher or school nurse, the manager of a child care center, the manager of a food service facility, an employer, or the ill people themselves) or by practicing doctors, and brought to public health attention via a phone call or e-mail or entry on a web site established for the purpose [ 20 ] . public health workers assess the information and make the decision whether or not to do a formal investigation of the outbreak. one part of such an assessment is to look at available streams of surveillance data and determine whether there is information supporting the occurrence of an outbreak. for example, a report of a possible infl uenza outbreak in a high school might prompt closer examination of syndromic surveillance data from nearby hospital emergency departments to determine whether there is a more general increase in visits for infl uenza-like illness. a report of a neighborhood cluster of brain cancers would prompt closer examination of available cancer registry information, which might or might not support an interim conclusion that such a cluster is real and statistically signifi cant. in order to be accountable for the effectiveness of their work, local and state health departments need to track the occurrence of outbreaks and the public health response to those outbreaks. since outbreaks can be due to reportable or nonreportable diseases, this cannot be done only by actions such as identifying some cases in the reportable disease data system as being part of an outbreak. systems to track the occurrence of outbreaks need to document the following: • time and date the fi rst and last cases occurred • total (estimated or counted) number of cases • population group most affected (by age, sex, location) • setting of the outbreak (school, workplace, restaurant, wedding, etc.) • suspected or confi rmed agent • most common clinical presentation • suspected or confi rmed source and mode of spread • methods used to investigate agent, source and mode of spread • control measures recommended • control measures implemented • lessons learned for prevention of future outbreaks and improved investigation and response in future events this information about outbreaks should be stored for ready retrieval, and to serve as a basis for quality improvement efforts. for quality improvement purposes, it is also helpful to document the content of the summary report written about each outbreak. when the outbreak is due to a reportable disease, individual cases in the reportable disease surveillance information system can be linked to the outbreak, for example by having an outbreak identifi er attached to their records. if preliminary information about outbreaks in a jurisdiction is entered into the outbreak information system in real time, as the investigation is proceeding, and if the outbreak database is readily searchable by all communicable disease investigators in the jurisdiction, then local investigators can use the outbreak database to help them with investigations of new illness or outbreak complaints [ 21 ] . for example, if they receive a complaint that illness has occurred in people who consumed a particular food product, they can look in the database and determine whether other recent or current complaints or outbreaks mention the same food product. if they receive a report about a gastroenteritis outbreak in a childcare center, they can determine what agents have been found to be responsible for recent or current similar outbreaks in nearby communities; this can help focus their laboratory testing and initial control strategies. some us states have had long-standing systems to document all outbreaks investigated by local or state personnel, but others have not. a major variable in the design of such systems is the state-local division of responsibilities in each state, including the degree of state oversight of 'routine' local outbreak investigations. the actual investigation of an outbreak or cluster may involve enhanced "active" case-fi nding, use of case-report forms, group surveys, and formal epidemiologic studies. active case-fi nding involves regular solicitation of case reports from doctors, hospitals, and laboratories. managing the reports of possible, probable, and confi rmed cases that are part of the outbreak is an important task. for a reportable disease, the jurisdiction's reportable disease surveillance system may be adequate to manage reported cases. it may be necessary, however, to create a continuouslyupdated line list of possible cases and their current status, which is outside the scope of the standard reportable disease application. outbreak investigation surveys will typically involve interviewing everyone with a possible exposure (like all attendees of a wedding reception), whether they were ill or not. formal studies may involve interviewing selected non-ill people, for example, as part of a case-control study. the investigation may also involve obtaining and sending to a laboratory a large number of specimens from ill persons, and sometimes from exposed non-ill persons and from environmental sources (food, water, air, soil, etc.). managing these disparate types of information is a challenge, especially in a large outbreak or one involving multiple jurisdictions. there is currently no one widely-accepted and satisfactory way to manage data in such settings. each investigation team typically uses the tools it is most familiar with, including some combination of data management tools like ms excel, ms access, or epiinfo [ 22 ] , and standard statistical packages. many health departments maintain libraries of standard questionnaires with associated empty data bases, for use during outbreak investigations. when cdc is involved in a multistate outbreak, the investigation team at the local or state level needs to be able to produce and transmit timely case report and other information in the format desired by cdc. the services of an experienced public health informaticist can be extremely helpful to the investigation team when outbreaks are large and multifocal. an ongoing challenge for cdc and the states is how to make the transition from specialized case reporting during an outbreak of a new disease, such as west nile virus encephalitis or sars, to routine case-based surveillance. if this transition is not well-managed, it is likely to result in the creation of a permanent stand-alone surveillance information system (or silo) for that disease. if the new disease is of national importance, cases should be made nationally notifi able and its surveillance should be incorporated into existing systems. laboratory information is a critical component of disease surveillance and prevention. laboratory data form the foundation of many surveillance systems. there are different types of laboratories involved in the public health data stream. laboratories providing data to public health fall into the general categories of commercial or private industry, hospital or clinical, and public health laboratories. public health laboratory information systems (lis) contain information about test results on specimens submitted for primary diagnosis, for confi rmation of a commercial or hospital laboratory's results, for identifi cation of unusual organisms, or for further characterization of organisms into subgroupings (like serotypes) that are of epidemiologic importance. in some states, all clinical laboratories must submit all isolates of certain organisms to the public health laboratory. many of the results obtained in a public health laboratory turn out to be for diseases that are not reportable and not targets of specifi c prevention programs. some of those results may, however, be for cases of non-reportable diseases that are historically rare in the jurisdiction but of great public health importance, or are new or newly-recognized. the main business of clinical laboratories (located both inside and outside hospitals) is to test specimens for pathogens or groups of pathogens specifi ed by the ordering physician, and return the results to the person who ordered the test. public health agencies have, since the early 1990s, asked or required such laboratories to also identify results meeting certain criteria (indicating the presence of a case of a reportable disease) and send a copy of the results to the public health agency for public health surveillance. initially, case reporting by laboratories was accomplished on paper forms, which were mailed or faxed to public health departments. some laboratories very soon moved to mailing printouts of relevant laboratory results, then to sending diskettes, then to transferring computerized fi les containing laboratory results by direct modem-to-modem transfer, and eventually to transferring such fi les via the internet using standard formats and vocabularies. in some states, public clinics (for example, std clinics) have used contract laboratories for their testing needs. in this situation, the outside laboratory supplies both positive and negative results to the public health agency, increasingly by transfer of electronic results in standard formats. laboratories provide data on reportable conditions to their local or state public health authority. reportable diseases are determined by each state; clinicians, hospitals, and/or laboratories must report to public health when these conditions are identifi ed. some reportable conditions are also nationally notifi able. deidentifi ed cases of these are voluntarily notifi ed by states and territories to cdc, which, in collaboration with the council of state and territorial epidemiologists, maintains a listing of nationally notifi able conditions that includes both infectious (e.g., rabies, tb) and non-infectious (e.g., blood lead, cancer) conditions [ 23 ] . the public health partnership with laboratories has led to the very successful and still increasing implementation of electronic laboratory reporting (elr) in the us. elr refers to the secure, electronic, standards-based reporting of laboratory data to public health. elr implementation has been steadily escalating since its inception around the year 2000, replacing previous reporting systems that relied on slower, more labor-intensive paper reporting. the elr national working group conducted annual surveys from 2004 to 2011 [ 24 ] which gathered data from all 50 states as well as from several territories and large metropolitan areas. these data were supplemented with data for years 2000-2004, retroactively gathered in the 2010 survey. the tracked growth of elr (fig. 14.1 ) illustrates its rapid rise in the us, from the start of early stage planning to fully operational elr [ 25 ] . the expected benefi ts of elr include more rapid reporting of reportable cases to public health departments, allowing faster recognition of priority cases and outbreaks for investigation and response, and thus more effective prevention and control [ 26 ] . elr also is expected to reduce the number of missed cases, as automated systems do not require laboratory staff to actively remember to make case reports, and to improve the item-level completeness and quality of case reports. although experience shows that the expected improvements in timeliness, sensitivity, completeness, and accuracy are generally being realized [ 27 ] , timeliness may not be improved substantially for those diseases where clinicians routinely report based on clinical suspicion without waiting for laboratory confi rmation (for example, meningococcal disease) [ 28 ] . in addition, laboratories (especially referral laboratories) often do not have access in their own information systems to home addresses for people whose specimens they are testing, and have struggled with providing complete demographic information to public health agencies. implementation of an operational elr system is not a trivial undertaking. laboratories must confi gure data into an acceptable message format, most commonly health level seven (hl7 ® ) [ 29 ] . laboratory tests and results should be reported with correlated vocabulary or content codes. two of the most common code systems used for laboratory tests and their associated results are logical observations identifi ers names and codes (loinc ® ) [ 30 ] and systematized nomenclature of medicine (snomed ct ® ) [ 31 ] . neither of these systems is suffi cient by itself to encode all the information needed for public health surveillance. public health jurisdictions have introduced elr to their partner laboratories using one or more of the following approaches: • the "charm" approach -relies on establishing goodwill and collaboration with laboratory partners. while this collegial approach is very appealing, it may be unable to overcome signifi cant barriers such as lack of laboratory funding or resources, and some facilities will supply data only in methods specifi cally required by law. • the incentive approach -involves offering either fi nancial or technical assistance to laboratory partners, assisting them in the startup process of elr. while this approach may be preferred by many laboratories, relatively few jurisdictions have the discretionary funds (or are able to receive federal assistance funds) to implement the approach. • the enforcement or legislative approach -requires reporting rules or legislation that requires laboratories to participate in elr. the most successful enforcement approach will include low-cost options for smaller laboratories, such as web data entry, so that they may benefi t from an elr -"lite" implementation [ 32 ] . the mainstreaming of elr systems in the us has pioneered a clear path forward for public health to begin maximizing its presence in the domain of electronic data interchange. at a local level, case reports for communicable diseases prompt action. although the specifi c action varies by disease, the general approach is the same. it starts with an interview of the ill person (or that person's parents or other surrogates) to determine who or what the person was in contact with in ways that facilitate transmission, both to determine a likely source of infection and to identify other people who may be at risk from exposure to this person. information systems to support contact tracing, partner notifi cation, and postexposure prophylaxis (for stds or tb, for example) contain records about all elicited contacts (exposed persons) for each reported case of the disease in question. these records contain information about each contact, such as whether they were located, whether they received post-exposure prophylaxis, and the results of any additional partner-elicitation interviews or clinical testing that were completed. information systems to support surveillance for other reportable diseases also increasingly contain information about what disease-appropriate action was taken in response to each case; such actions may include identifi cation of contacts, education of household members, vaccination or antibiotic prophylaxis of contacts, isolation of the case (including staying home from work or school), or quarantine of exposed people. std and tb information systems typically capture full locating information for contacts, and can be used both to support fi eld work and to generate statistics on effectiveness of partner notifi cation activities worker by worker and in the aggregate. systems for other reportable diseases may capture only the fact that various interventions were done, and the date that these were initiated. information about the timeliness of initiation of recommended control measures is now required as a performance measure for selected diseases by cdc's public health emergency preparedness cooperative agreement [ 33 ] . in the investigation of a case of meningococcal disease, contacts are people who had very close contact with the original person, for example a household member, boyfriend, or regular playmate. health department staff determines who the close contacts are. each will then be offered specifi c antibiotic treatment to prevent illness. for syphilis, contacts are people who have had sex with the original case. contacts will be examined by a clinician and assessed serologically to see if they are already infected, and offered appropriate prophylactic or curative antibiotic treatment. for measles, contacts may include anyone who spent even a few minutes in the same room as a case. contacts whose exposure was recent enough, and who are not fully immunized already, will receive a dose of measles-containing vaccine, and all contacts will be asked to self-isolate immediately if they develop symptoms of measles. in investigating a common-source outbreak of legionellosis, histoplasmosis, or anthrax, the local health department may want to locate everyone who had a specifi ed exposure to the apparent source of the infection. these exposed people may need antibiotic prophylaxis or may be advised to seek medical care promptly if they become ill. information systems to support this type of work typically have three purposes: 1. serve as a place for workers to record and look up information about people who are or may be contacts, and to track which contacts have and have not yet received needed interventions. 2. serve as a source of information for calculating indices of program or worker timeliness and performance, such as the average number of sexual contacts elicited per syphilis patient interviewed, or the percentage of measles contacts who were identifi ed in a timely way and who received post-exposure measles vaccine prophylaxis. 3. document the workload and effort put in by epidemiology and disease control fi eld staff it seems logical that the surveillance information system should serve as the basis for a system to support fi eld investigation, and this is often the case. the fact that the recommended interventions vary by disease makes designing a single system more complex. existing systems that track fi eld worker activities in detail are much more common for std and tb programs than for others. for general communicable disease fi eldwork, it is currently more common that the system simply documents which interventions were done and when, rather than use the application to track specifi c named contacts or exposed people. the public health informatics institute has published a detailed analysis [ 34 ] of the typical workfl ow involved in surveillance, investigation, and intervention for reportable diseases, and the corresponding information system requirements. the work group that phii convened had representatives of nine different state and local health departments, who were able to identify a large number of processes that were common to all nine jurisdictions, such as case-fi nding, case investigation, data analysis and visualization, monitoring and reporting, case/contact specifi c intervention, and others. these common processes can then serve as a basis for designing information systems to support case-reporting, surveillance, and case-based intervention work that are useable in multiple jurisdictions. consider existing or planned surveillance systems for multiple diseases and conditions. broadly, there are three functions in each of these systems -acquiring the raw data, cleaning and managing the data, and making the data available to users. each of these functions potentially can be integrated, to varying degrees. for example, multiple surveillance systems may benefi t from receiving electronic laboratory reports with a result indicating the presence of a case of a reportable disease. laboratories appreciate having a single set of instructions and a single destination for all their required reports, as this simplifi es their work. the laboratories then benefi t from the ability of the recipient health department to route the reports internally to the right surveillance information system. at the other end of the data pathway, users appreciate having a single interface with which to examine data about multiple conditions or diseases, using the same commands and defi nitions. the users do not have to understand how different surveillance information systems may internally code the same concept in different ways. they also appreciate being able to directly compare information that originally was submitted for the use of different program areas -for example, hepatitis b and gonorrhea in the same chart or table. in the short to medium term, it is not necessary to build a single integrated data repository or a master person index to achieve these goals, even if that is what one would have designed if one were starting from the beginning. however, if one wants to be able to see information about the same person that originates and is stored in multiple systems -for example, so that tb clinicians can see hiv data on their patients and vice versa -then an integrated data repository, or a master person index, or a query system that is extremely accurate in fi nding data on the right person, is needed. modifying existing systems to be able to carry out these functions is time consuming and expensive, so the business case and requirements need to be especially clear. florida's essence system: from syndromic surveillance to routine epidemiologic analysis across syndromic and nonsyndromic data sources (abstract) history of public health surveillance blueprint for a national public health surveillance system for the 21st century status of state electronic disease surveillance systems -united states prioritizing investigations of reported cases of selected enteric infections. paper presented at council of state and territorial epidemiologists nationally notifi able disease surveillance system case defi nitions association of state and territorial health offi cers. biosense 2.0 governance updated guidelines for evaluating public health surveillance systems, recommendations from the guidelines working group design and operation of local and state infectious disease surveillance systems oxford handbook of public health practice behavioral risk factor surveillance system overview of infl uenza surveillance in the united states international society for disease surveillance meaningful use workgroup. final recommendation: core processes and ehr requirements for public health syndromic surveillance electronic syndromic surveillance using hospital in patient and ambulatory clinical care electronic health record data national program of cancer registries coverdell national acute stroke registry surveillance -four states atlanta congenital defects program (macdp) north american association of central cancer registries, inc. (naaccr). implementation guidelines and recommendations report on birth defects in florida a comparison of two surveillance strategies for selected birth defects in florida online food and waterborne illness complaint form biosurveillance plan for human health, version 2.0. atlanta national notifi able diseases surveillance system (nndss), cdc. accessed at http:// wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/ on available from www.coast2coastin-formatics.com national electronic laboratory reporting (elr) snapshot survey. available from www.coast2coastinformatics.com . cited statewide system of electronic notifi able disease reporting from clinical laboratories: comparing automated reporting with conventional methods a comparison of the completeness and timeliness of automated electronic laboratory reporting and spontaneous reporting of notifi able conditions potential effects of electronic laboratory reporting on improving timeliness of infectious disease notifi cation -florida health level seven (hl7 ® ) homepage. available at logical observation identifi ers names and codes (loinc ® ) systematized nomenclature of medicine-clinical terms (snomed ct ® ) see for example section 64d-3.031(5) of the florida administrative code: notifi cation by laboratories public health emergency preparedness cooperative agreement, budget period 1, performance measures specifi cation and implementation guidance, at-a-glance summary redesigning public health surveillance in an ehealth world on 31 1. what are some of the methods for surveillance besides case-reporting? 2. how are registries different from other surveillance information systems? 3. what are the advantages and disadvantages of building a master person index across surveillance information systems for multiple diseases? 4. what are the expected benefi ts of electronic laboratory reporting as a method to enhance surveillance? 5. what are the advantages and disadvantages of building a system to manage information about case contacts as part of the surveillance information system? 6. who determines for which diseases cases are nationally notifi able? key: cord-026881-57mx3thr authors: neuwirth, rostam j. title: gaia 2048—a ‘glocal agency in anthropocene’: cognitive and institutional change as ‘legal science fiction’ date: 2020-03-28 journal: a post-wto international legal order doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-45428-9_5 sha: doc_id: 26881 cord_uid: 57mx3thr to assess a future scenario of the world without a wto, the present chapter projects the reader into the distant future of the year 2048 by which time the global community is aiming to establish gaia, the so-called “glocal agency in anthropocene”. gaia is designed as the first truly integrated global institution with a universal character with the aim to tackle the complex and multiversal governance challenges of humanity and the planet as a whole. this chapter marks both a legally and a scientifically fictitious account of the years from 2020 until 2048, from a dystopian and a utopian perspective, with the aim of highlighting the importance of cognition for legal and institutional change. the need for cognitive change is driven by changes in the environment, and by the challenges resulting from a perceived acceleration of the pace of change and the unprecedented levels of technological complexity. both change and complexity increase the relevance of cognition, as laws and policies adopted in one area are more likely to affect their success or failure and that of the global governance system as a whole. thus, this chapter predicts that the foremost necessity for law in the future is to build on novel and enhanced modes of human cognition to deal better with complexity and rapid change. why do we remember the past and not the future? 1 we are writing at the end of the year 2048, and marking a period of efforts towards the establishment of a new and comprehensive global governance mechanism, known, for short, as "gaia 2048". gaia stands for "glocal agency in anthropocene", and describes a project for a novel institutional framework to be set up with the objective of tackling humanity's most urgent problems and glocally governing and sustainably developing human affairs in the future. the future is what matters the most right now, as the world is hoping to recover from the devastating effects of the time period known as the "digital dark age". this is the era from 2030 until 2045 when-as the result of an internet blackout (outage)-all prior digital resources, including records and archives, became inaccessible and, because of the wide prevalence of the internet of things (iot), the same happened to most related technical applications and utilities. 2 in short, this dark period wiped out all digitally or electronically stored data. as a consequence, it not only paralysed all technical facilities and caused millions of casualties, but also led to a collective loss of humanity's memory, which, furthermore, caused a loss of identity. many still speculate about what triggered the meltdown of the former information society based on the internet, with the suggested causes ranging from scientific, economic, and political to cognitive and, notably, legal reasons. for instance, scientific explanations range from a cyberattack using malware to a nuclear blackout caused by the detonation of an atomic warhead in outer space, an accident at cern creating a black hole in geneva following a malfunction of the large hadron collider ii, or a failure of the 5g network in combination with a data overload on the world wide web caused by states' geopolitical struggles and the monopolistic tendencies of various tech giants. other people invoke politicoeconomic explanations, simply citing the second global financial crisis of 2029, which was caused by trade and currency wars that, inter alia, eroded the finances needed for the maintenance of the internet's sophisticated infrastructure. environmental factors are also often named, such as floods and rising sea levels, increased volcanic activity and earthquakes, combined with heatwaves and global pandemics, which disrupted or paralysed the energy supply by damaging its essential facilities. politics also played a role, as populism and racism increased, further fragmenting society into ever smaller units, down to its most vulnerable minority, the individual. constitutional democracies came under threat from changes that were, at first, undetectably small but that eventually combined and posed a serious threat. in legal circles, the fragmentation of international law, the rise of norm conflicts due to bad regulation, overregulation and the automation that took over several fields of law 3 are mentioned as the prime causes of the inability of humanity to halt the dangers of the conditions it had created for itself. it again became obvious that the rule of law needed not just legal texts but also stable institutional guarantors at both the national and the global levels. 4 it is more likely that the blackout was due to a combination of interrelated factors in an environment characterized by an increasing complexity and ever faster pace of change. since time immemorial, humanity has struggled with change or, notably, with its perception of change, since this perception may itself have been subject to change. 5 however, since the last millennium many observers have noted an apparent effect of an acceleration of change or so-called "time shrinking". 6 this trend for change to accelerate started to pose a major threat to lawmakers and policymakers and, in particular, to law, as it became more difficult to "preserve its integrity over time, while managing to address the newly emerging circumstances that continually arise throughout our history". 7 another threat to law came from unprecedented levels of technological innovation, which culminated in a situation in which the regulation of specific industries and technologies, such as those of artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, big data and genetics, failed to find a successful balance between their unknown risks and their expected benefits. in short, excessive levels of specialization, not met by an adequate general understanding, led technological progress to spin out of control. 8 thus, by the year 2020 the international legal order had witnessed the disastrous effects of a gradual loss of control caused by decades of neglecting first subtle and later obvious signs of multiple law and policy failures. these policy failures culminated in the failed attempts to reform the most important international institutions, the united nations (un) and the world trade organization (wto), in a holistic and comprehensive manner. there was a failure to bridge the rift that was caused when the international trade organization (ito) did not materialize; the ito would have complemented the institutional balance between the three bretton woods sisters, the ito, the imf and the world bank. in other words, the institutional failure of the ito to materialize also meant that greater coherence, or to integrate trade and non-trade concerns, was renounced as an ideal for global governance. the separation between the un on the one hand and the gatt on the other, can also be regarded as a further strong manifestation of a dualistic mode of thinking based on binary logic. most of all, it was the beginning of a failure of cognitive modes of thinking to keep pace with technological changes in the context so as to provide a stable and coherent global institutional framework for the governance of global affairs. historically, the gatt 1947 was characterised as having found "itself without an inadequate legal and constitutional base and required to fill a vacuum created by the failure of the ito". 9 the situation also meant that attempts to reconcile trade and non-trade concerns in both substantive and institutional terms was postponed to a distant day. this delay later led to the emergence of the "trade linkage debate", by which different pairs of "trade and . . ." problems were supposed to be reconciled. lacking their reconciliation, criticism of the wto also became louder and culminated in the protests accompanying the 1999 seattle wto ministerial conference. 10 since then, the failure to address non-trade concerns and to achieve greater policy coherence continued and provided further momentum to the procedural crisis affecting the wto dispute settlement body. in sum, a lack of political will as much as outdated cognitive modes framed by dualistic thinking led to the law being inadequate to meet the institutional and substantive challenges. to exemplify the impact of cognition on whether the law meets the demands put upon it, the present chapter divides the time between the year 2020 and 2048 into two opposite scenarios. first, sect. 1 traces the lost years by drawing up a dystopian 7 johnson (2007), p. 845. 8 harari (2017 ), p. 51. 9 jackson (1969 ), p. 51. 10 dimatteo (2003 scenario, in which cognition remained largely static and dualistic, such that changes did not keep pace with the speed of technological and scientific innovation. section 2 is more utopian, in the sense that it relies on a newly acquired cognitive mode of thinking as exemplified by synaesthesia, which not only allows for the development of actions as causes of change but also includes a review and evaluation of the consequences. the conclusion finds that an entirely new mode of cognition, triggered by linguistic changes that are reflected in a recent rise of oxymora and paradoxes, opens a new perspective on how lawyers can help to both predict and shape the future. fail' in the world of theory, there are many dichotomies. in the real world, there are many divisions and divides. in the world of power, all too often, these divisions, divides, and dichotomies serve to maintain and reinforce existing imbalanced and skewed power relations between individuals, communities, governments, and nation-states. in the world of power, it is indeed divide and rule. 11 in attempts to describe the evolution of the multilateral trading regime from 1995 until 2048, so-called "digital historians" have argued that 11 december 2019 marked the decisive moment and unofficial date of the decline of the world trade organization. although aggressive regionalism, unilateral measures and resulting trade wars as well as inertia in addressing the trade linkage debate and interinstitutional linkages between the wto and the un had been eroding the multilateral trading regime for some time before, it was on that day that the wto's dispute settlement system became dysfunctional following the expiration of the terms of two of the three remaining members of the appellate body (ab). 12 this left the ab with fewer than the three members required by art. 17.1 dsu to serve on appeal cases. as with many international organizations, nation states and other legal constructs before it, the official decline of the wto and the multilateral trading regime as a whole started slowly and then ended abruptly. the decline was probably the result of a chain of missed opportunities for the reform and adaptation of the relevant system to changes in the context, which notably saw a strong trend towards greater convergence of various industries, technologies and products. 13 this convergence further increased the need for the consideration of non-trade concerns and greater policy coherence. for some time, the system lingered on and ministerial conferences were merely held without achieving tangible results, continuing the deplorable tradition that began with the launch of the doha development round in 2001. most wto members engaged in either a relapse into unilateral measures adopted at the domestic level or a rat race to join numerous regional trade agreements. however, in both cases, the most important challenges faced at that time, in the form of institutional gaps, regulatory fragmentation and overregulation, were not tackled, either nationally or regionally, let alone globally. numerous calls and suggestions for institutional reform to achieve greater policy coherence, under the aegis of the so-called "trade linkage debate" discussing various "trade and . . . problems" or how to better link trade with non-trade issues, were ignored. 14 in this regard, more importantly, the cognitive and conceptual dimension of trade policy was not duly considered, as "transformational change in the institutions and politics of international trade" were found to go "hand in hand with cognitive change" as andrew t. f. lang wrote. 15 he also found a nexus between cognitive change and institutional reform being linked to the criticism of the wto and notably the failure to address the trade linkage debate. 16 as a result, from this time on, the international system, or, more accurately, the remaining "international systemic chaos", 17 was described as having moved "away from an assembly of distinct, territorial, sovereign, legally equal states toward different, more hierarchical, and in many ways more complicated structures". 18 even though an attempt was launched in 2006 to reform the united nations organization in order to streamline the coordination of its many specialized organizations and to enhance the coherence of global policymaking by "delivering as one", 19 the management of this reform eventually proved to be an oxymoron before it failed altogether. 20 for a long time, the un's work in its core areas, from development to the environment, was described as fragmented, and its inefficient governance structure contributed to "policy incoherence, duplication and operational ineffectiveness across the system". 21 what could be framed as a "trade and technology" problem, the earlier us-china trade disputes (2017-2020), also caused frictions in the innovation of new technologies and especially in the realm of telecommunication and information technologies. 22 these frictions led to a further fragmentation of the internet and the market for information and communication technologies (ict). russia initiated the creation of an alternate web, which was later also used by the remaining brics countries, 14 pauwelyn (2005) with other countries following suit. moreover, it was common for the governance gaps and frequent legal inconsistencies between the various fragments of laws governing international trade and commerce to be abused by artificial intelligence and unregulated algorithms, those lacking a kind of lex algoritmica, meaning that global business generally operated in a "black box" inaccessible to consumers and lawmakers. 23 from a commercial perspective, the "world wide web" (www), which was intended to become a "wireless world wide web" (wwww) by virtue of the transition to the 5g network, became further fragmented by national and regional firewalls as well as restrictive measures known as geolocation measures. 24 other conflicts, in the form of regulatory paradoxes framed as dichotomies, such as those of "goods versus services", 25 "free trade in data versus data localization", 26 or "regulatory fragmentation versus technological convergence", 27 were also ignored. in the same way, in other sectors covered by the gatt, gats and trips agreements, the multilateral trading rules were further eroded by trade disputes in which different claims were met by defences made on the basis of national security concerns. 28 known as the "trade and security" problem, questions about the selfjudging nature of the security exceptions widened the institutional gap opened by the split between the un system and the gatt/wto system caused by the failure of the international trade organization (ito) to materialize. this institutional rift had, since 1948, left the world with a conflict of norms in the form of a "catch xxi" or "trade and security" dilemma. 29 after the wto ruling in russia -measures in transit in 2019, in which the panel held that it had jurisdiction to determine whether the requirements of article xxi of the gatt 1994 were satisfied, 30 other countries simply refused to respond to requests for consultations and boycotted the relevant meetings. 31 in the end, the invocation of the security exceptions further eroded belief in the wto and accelerated its demise. the broader conditions in the global economy also grew dimmer and were closely related to the "trade and energy" problem. from as early as 2005, the tipping point in the production of oil was reached, meaning that conventional crude oil production 23 pasquale (2015) . 24 yu (2019), pp. 503-529. 25 smith and woods (2005) , pp. 463-510. 26 burri (2017) was not rising to match increasing demand. 32 the "all-oil peak" meant that, after decades of controversy over its arrival, there was a drastic dampening in economic growth and, actually, the inauguration of an era of global depression. 33 notably, for oil-producing and other resource-rich countries, the so-called "paradox of plenty" aggravated, and the ensuing economic disaster also led to, the collapse of their constitutional system, and also triggered new waves of political violence. since human civilization was a sensitive "complex adaptive system", other countries too, and the globe as a whole, also were drawn into a downward spiral of economic recession and political instability. 34 institutionally, the proliferation and fragmentation of energy organizations and the failure to address the "global energy governance gap" by reforming existing energy agencies or creating a global energy agency, further contributed to the resulting disaster. 35 the complexity of the global economy could also be seen in the connection between trade, the environment and energy. in parallel, numerous efforts towards achieving greater sustainability in economic development based on renewable energies were also unable to offset the devastating effects of the disruptive consequences of the "all-oil peak" and the ensuing global energy crisis on economies and societies around the world. the result was a global energy crisis in 2033 that disrupted most global trade in both goods and services and caused stock crashes through inflationary pressures, and later accelerated the eventual collapse of the international monetary system as it had done during the 1973 oil crisis. renewable energies were also incapable of averting the crisis, even though the impact of the 2015 paris agreement, adopted with the objective of responding to the threat of climate change, had no negative effect on the global economy or on countries' welfare gains. because of the absence of a coherent global regulatory framework, renewable energies remained expensive and investments often did not materialize. in this context, it was also a failure when the wto membership addressed the "trade and environment" problem by, inter alia, reforming the wto subsidies agreement, which resulted in various trade disputes challenging green policies. 36 the lack of global competition rules, as a result of the abandonment of a project in 2004 that was one of four "singapore issues", 37 led to the emergence of various multinational tech giants, which widely abused their dominant positions, explored tax loopholes, and competed unfairly in courts, patent offices and markets. they were also crucial in meddling in elections and were accused of undermining democratic institutions. 38 no efficient dispute settlement system under the multilateral trading regime, and a lack of legal standing for private parties, both natural and legal 32 murray and king (2012) , pp. 433-435. 33 hall and klitgaard (2018) , p. 109. 34 ahmed (2017) . 35 downie (2015) , p. 475. 36 cosbey and mavroidis (2014), pp. 11-47. 37 demedts (2015), pp. 415-416. 38 ginsburg and huq (2018), p. 198. persons, in domestic or supranational courts caused further havoc and greater inequality among global citizens. as early as 2017, inequality was reported to be standing at unprecedented levels, and it was claimed that "just eight men own the same wealth as the poorest half of the world". 39 these inequalities, dividing societies around the world, not only perpetuated themselves but even increased, with devastating effects on the global economy and the environment. another aspect of inequality was found in the "trade and development" link, another complex and cross-cutting "trade and . . ." problem. cutting a long story short, the development discourse continued along the "developing versus developed country" dichotomy, despite calls to the contrary and even its abandonment by the world bank in 2016. 40 even though the definition of "official development assistance" (oda) evolved, it continued to be understood as resource flows from developed to developing countries. 41 with the mindset unchanged, the language use of "developed-developing countries" also remained the same. as a result, the us and the eu continued, on the one hand, to subsidize their agricultural producers and to reap excessive benefits from royalties on various patented and copyrighted products, while on the other, they kept granting support through official development assistance programs to a large number of developing countries. this practice continued to impede the development of local industries in the targeted countries. 42 moreover, the uncertainty surrounding the meaning of "development status" further eroded the wto's status after the us began to challenge it in 2019. 43 at the same time, the trade and development problem was closely tied to the "trade and finance" problem. 44 generally, the trade and finance link suffered from the failure of the ito mentioned above, and the absence of a coherent framework for both trade and finance became manifest in the problem of so-called "currency manipulation", that is, the depreciation of a country's currency relative to other currencies so as to develop a large global and bilateral trade surplus. 45 despite the three organizations, the wto, the imf and the world bank, having pledged to enhance their policy coherence, their inter-institutional dialogues did not yield tangible results and the use of policy coherence was criticized instead as a way to introduce policy conformance. 46 39 an economy for the 99%. oxfam briefing paper, january 2017. https://www-cdn.oxfam.org/ s3fs-public/file_attachments/bp-economy-for-99-percent-160117-en.pdf. 40 neuwirth (2016), pp. 911-925. 41 hynes and scott (2013) . 42 moyo (2009) thomas (2000) , pp. 1249-1278. 45 staiger and sykes (2010) , pp. 583-627. 46 grabel (2007), pp. 335-341. put briefly, the "trade and finance issue" also remained unsolved, and the two respective regulatory regimes of trade and of finance continued to evolve side by side in dramatically different directions in spite of being mutually interdependent systems. 47 this had a serious impact on the world as the regulatory gap between them grew even more intense while the technological reality saw them increasingly converge notably with the emergence of the blockchain technology that underlies cryptocurrencies. cryptocurrencies, from bitcoin to altcoin, proliferated and gradually disrupted business and financial services as well as the global economy. 48 this meant that, in parallel to the third currency war between the world currencies (the dollar, the euro and the yuan), which began in 2010, 49 a digital currency war also began to be waged. in this digital currency war, the traditional world currencies fought against emerging digital currencies backed both by state and non-state actors. the ensuing chaos of currency wars brought about a loss of state control over financial markets and a rise of a global underground economy thriving on tax evasion and criminal activities. 50 it all culminated in a collapse of global trade and finance and ended with the second global financial crisis of the twenty-first century, which began on "black wednesday" of 24 october 2029. together with military conflicts, global health pandemics, like the large-scale outbreak of the novel coronavirus (ncov) infectious disease, and various natural disasters, like large scales rainforest wildfires and bushfires, caused by climate change and other anthropogenic factors, 51 the total disruption of the global economy created a dangerous dynamic, causing a severe migratory wave 52 that increased the number of forcibly displaced people from about 70 million people in 2018 to 1.4 billion less than 15 years later. 53 the crisis of migratory flows was aggravated by national governments and courts, who denied the affected persons the status of climate refugees. 54 at the same time, after an erosion of the rule of law in the majority of countries around the world, ever more restrictive national policies regarding citizenship in general, and dual citizenship in particular, also increased the number of stateless persons, who were thus deprived of all fundamental rights within and across state borders. 55 the european union, paralysed by endless brexit debates and the united kingdom's final exit from the eu on 31 january 2020, made little progress in reforming 47 gadbaw (2010) , p. 552. 48 tapscott and tapscott (2018) . 49 rickards (2011) 55 weissbrodt and collins (2006), pp. 245-276. its institutions, the single market, the single currency or its taxation system. on the contrary, past achievements in the four freedoms were scaled down as the result of nationalist policies in many member states. the eu's so-called "luxembourg treaty", negotiated under the 2029 eu presidency of luxembourg, added nothing that substantively remedied the lost opportunity of creating a constitution for europe in 2001. the eu's failure to become the world's most competitive market (the lisbon strategy) extended the lost decade of the eu, which began in 2000, when, to a lost near-half century. 56 many more regional integration projects worldwide also stagnated. for instance, the brics, representing 42% of the world's population in 2014 and initially set up as a "cooperation and dialogue forum" between brazil, russia, india, china and south africa in order to defy differences and make a difference in global governance, saw no progress, such as by seeking greater policy coherence based on more closely coordinating institutionalizing their cooperation. 57 similarly, the positive effects on infrastructure development based on the belt and road initiative (bri), initiated by the chinese government in 2013, were largely neutralized by opposition from the us and several european countries. the african union also failed to prevent the food security crisis that hit the african continent in 2030 58 and that pushed the achievement of the objectives enshrined in agenda 2063 into an even more distant future. 59 in sum, despite the emergence of a creative economy, which was initially fostered by the potential of new and innovative technologies, the 2015 sustainable development goals were still not realized by 2030. across the globe, political disagreements prevented action for greater regulatory harmonization, while centrifugal forces and fragmentation intensified. legally, a patchwork of isolated areas of law continued to grow, as did the number of regional trade agreements, which were violated or withdrawn from faster than they were negotiated. put simply, the so-called "global governance paradox", or the logical loop that a global platform was needed in order to create a global platform, proved a problem that was too difficult to tackle in conceptual and cognitive terms. with no consistent global legal order, fragmentation prevailed and led to the aggravation of the negative effects of "trade and . . ." problems on global peace and welfare. 56 neuwirth (2020), p. 51. 57 neuwirth et al. (2017) and neuwirth and svetlicinii (2019) . 58 onyutha (2018 onyutha ( ), pp. 1203 onyutha ( -1219 african union (2017) progress report on the implementation of agenda 2063 first ten-year implementation plan. available at: https://archives.au.int/handle/123456789/2618. the limits of my language mean the limits of my world. 60 in 2048, historians are still pondering the reasons for the collapse of the wto. some attribute it to isolationist us trade policies and the political turmoil around brexit, while others tend to focus on the rise of first asian and subsequently african countries. however, a different view identifies this failure as the beginning of the end of "end of . . . stories" 61 or a drastic paradigm shift in cognition. cognition had reached a tipping point in human evolution following two centuries of rapid technological innovations, which "shaped consciousness directly". 62 linguistic changes also confirmed this cognitive shift, mostly through the rise of essentially oxymoronic concepts. 63 as a result of these external factors, epigeneticists found biological and cognitive changes occurring in parallel. new organs of cognition hence emerged, as humans were evolving biologically and consciously. as a visible result, even by 2025 97% of new-born children displayed conditions of synaesthesia, i.e. the ability to better connect stimuli received from different sensory organs, which improved the skills to foresee developments and solve complex problems as well as enhanced their abilities of abstract thought. 64 related changes in educational policies were implemented, with the goal of creating a "world brain", or "an enhanced educational system through the whole body of mankind", designed to "replace our multitude of uncoordinated ganglia, our powerless miscellany of universities, research institutions, literatures with a purpose, national educational systems and the like". 65 this goal was to be achieved by fostering oxymoronic learning methods and giving training in both bivalent and polyvalent logic, complemented by training in multilingualism and oxymoronic thinking. for the trade and health link, the novel coronavirus (ncov) pandemic underscored once more the strong links between international trade, public healthcare and the global economy. as a result, the global healthcare system was integrated with a future trading system and backed by a consistent set of global innovation rules consisting of competition rules, intellectual property laws and fiscal incentives, which prevented price discrimination in pharmaceutical products and secured global access to affordable medicines. additionally, universal healthcare was provided freely by a combination of measures that combined both traditional and conventional medicines. 66 based on further changes in perception, such as through the development of technologies for the visualization of auras, 67 medical diagnosis improved and conventional, traditional and alternative medicines as well as mental health strategies were all integrated into a coherent set of laws and policies. further changes in healthcare were influenced by discoveries in so-called "life after life studies", which transcended the life-death dichotomy as the result of a greater awareness of the missing link in a globally coherent health policy. 68 research on near-death experiences scientifically confirmed popular and religious beliefs about life after life. 69 overall, a new cognitive mindset emerged in parallel with technical tools, leading to a new conception of the areas of economics, politics and law. for instance, the global economy became more sustainable, based on the spirit of "degrowth", which rejected the illusion of endless economic growth by advocating for a "democratically-led shrinking of production and consumption with the aim of achieving social justice and ecological sustainability". 70 at the same time, new and cleaner energy resources were derived from nuclear fusion developed by the iter project, helping to decarbonize the world's energy system. 71 various new and renewable energies complemented this. 72 since a g20 initiative formulated in 2019, the global community embraced an ambitious tax agenda to improve cooperation and transparency on the basis of a strategy for a global taxation system. 73 this initiative originally included a global financial transaction tax to fund the new global governance system. 74 it later included a digital tax on the world's tech giants, which levied taxes in the places where the goods and services were sold rather than the places where the company was based. it also introduced a global minimum tax rate to prevent a company from shifting its sales to a country with lower taxes. finally, a robotic tax, aided by the creation of a single global cryptocurrency (sgcc), 75 covered all activities based on automation to compensate for the disruptive effects of automation on the global labour market. 76 together, these measures helped to contain the outbreak of currency wars and related trade/finance disputes. 77 on the other hand, the changes in the taxation system also helped to reverse the former trend of higher income taxes as opposed to lower corporate taxes. the new system achieved an optimal balance, with around 5% income tax, 25% corporate tax (including on digital activities) and 35% robotic tax, as measures towards greater global tax justice. 78 these and other fiscal policies were introduced in coherence with other incentives to end the poverty trap. 79 the cognitive shift also remodelled the international multilevel governance system towards a "glocal" and holarchic system in which local, largely selfgoverning, entities were complemented by various regional regimes often organized into mega-regional blocks, with those of an inclusive global system enshrined in the gaia charter of 2048. holarchy here means a system in which various selfregulating entities function as autonomous wholes in supra-ordination to their parts but, at the same time, also as dependent parts in subordination to controls on higher levels their local environment. 80 the foundation is a polyvalent logic by which the links between stakeholders at different levels are supported by a dynamic system of subsidiarity and an open method of coordination. 81 it is based on a set of different criteria that the best possible level of regulation is determined without any prior bias towards either the local or the global level of governance. the same method is also applied to territorial questions, such as national sovereignty is no longer fixed but where territorial boundaries are drawn based on a similar set of criteria. thus, like in the quantum world, different political entities, and even national governments' competences, can overlap and even be superimposed without being perceived in conflict. changes in cognition facilitated the adoption of the gaia 2048 charter, as the global community finally found the "common language" 82 to tackle the "global governance paradox" successfully. the paradox was that, in order to create a global legal order, the world community needed a global governance platform that had not previously existed, confirming that linguistic and cognitive changes are quintessential to institutional change. structurally, the gaia 2048 was based on an institutional setting in which every "trade and . . ." problem was coordinated by a "coherence committee", with the competence to avoid conflict between different policy goals. the functioning of the institutional framework was aided by an e-governance system, which used intelligent algorithms to consolidate redundant norms and detect incoherent measures. however, artificial intelligence was considered not only to be hype but also to be an oxymoron, and, in relation to law and policy, artificial intelligence measures were strictly bound by the requirement inherited from the former eu general data protection regulation that they could not be implemented and enforced "without any human intervention". 83 78 brock and pogge (2014), pp. 1-15. 79 thang dao and edenhofer (2018), pp. 253-273. 80 koestler (1967 ), pp. 102-103. 81 neuwirth (2020 halpin and roeben (2009) in substantive terms, existing sources of global law were codified into a single legal document, the gaia code, a global constitutional text that reduced the previous disarray of international laws. in this way, former conflicts between norms that arose because of dichotomies that were too simplistic to account for real complexity, be it between electronic and traditional modes of consumption of goods (gatt) and services (gats), between ip law and competition law, or between international trade law and various subfields of general public international law in the name of "self-contained regimes", were no longer unavoidable and irresolvable. 84 in this context, global competition rules were integrated and enhanced so as to not only guarantee the sustainable economic development of the global market but also "solve social problems ranging from unemployment to income inequality and indeed to improve the functioning of democracy itself". 85 other necessary changes simply came with changes in cognition and understanding, and did not require a change in language as they occurred earlier when a higher court reconsidered its established case law. for instance, in the field of global economic law, the national treatment provisions of gatt article iii, gats article xvii and article 3 of trips were now no longer merely interpreted as prohibiting discrimination between domestic and imported goods or services but also as encompassing "all measures having an equivalent effect on consumers in covered markets". 86 this became necessary to cover personalized price discrimination made possible by the data economy. 87 these cognitive changes, plus a seamless global wireless web, also ended the western failure of the territorial national state. 88 as a result, the "four freedoms" related to the free movement of goods, services, persons and capital, became recognized as ubiquitous civil right and a global reality. 89 the various systemic changes resulting from cognitive changes were supported by, and helped to establish, an effective and inclusive global dispute settlement mechanism, which recognized the right to bring an action and to be heard in court (locus standi) of not only international organizations, states and multinational corporations but also natural persons. 90 it effectively aligned the former wto dispute settlement system with investor-state arbitration. 91 both systems were elevated to a "world trade court" embedded within a fully-fledged global judicial body, the gaia tribunal, that was vested with various constitutional powers to sanction and enforce the rulings it issued. 92 overall, the new institutional design based on these cognitive changes was said to have helped to "improve and eventually overcome the perceived lack of legitimacy of international courts and tribunals in the eyes of the governments, the legal community and civil society". 93 4 conclusion: 'dystopian utopia' or oxymora to predict the future by creating it my project was retarded by laws of nature. the world was not prepared for it. it was too far ahead of time. but the same laws will prevail in the end and make it a triumphal success. 94 a dystopian or a utopian future, does it matter? after all, from the "perspective of the brain, there's a thin line between a good decision and a bad decision". 95 it seems, though, that what matters to everyone is the future, because the future is "where we are all going to spend the rest of our lives". 96 however, perhaps this must also not be the case as, paradoxically, most (or all) dichotomies have a limitation in that they not only trade accuracy for simplicity, 97 but also provide an invisible barrier to a vision of the bigger picture. this is where subtle linguistic changes may gradually trigger cognitive changes and eventually bring in legal and institutional changes, in the same way as dripping water hollows out stone, even though the cognitive habits of binary or dualistic thinking are said to die hard. 98 easy or difficult, it is a source of encouragement for everyone, as we may, à la longue, be able to bring about the change we desire, given that institutional change is possible once a cognitive change has occurred. 99 the recent rise in the number of oxymora and paradoxes, however, seems to indicate this "creative" possibility. for instance, various concepts implicitly reflecting the tensions between prediction and destiny within the confines of past and present, such as science fiction 100 or free will, 101 have been qualified as oxymora. in their context (and possibly in the context of all paradoxes), time therefore appears as the clue, or the key we need to find to unlock the limitations inherent in our current linear perception of time. the fact is that the grammar of many modern languages, conjugating verbs in the "present," "past," and "future" tenses, was said to not be "well-adapted for speaking about the real temporal structure of reality, which is more complex". 102 various "nostalgic visionaries", 93 dimitropoulos (2018) lang (2007) , p. 529. 100 csicsery-ronay jr. (2008), p. 8 ("as its name implies, science fiction is an oxymoron."). 101 crewe (2008) , p. 23. 102 rovelli (2018), p. 111. like herbert g. wells or jules verne, however, transcended the past-future dichotomy in their writings, thereby anticipating many future inventions. 103 lawyers, too, can act in this way, as their work is often similar to that of science fiction authors, given that they can help in translating fiction into legal fact 104 or turning dreams into reality by combining "the law as it is" (lex lata) with "the law as it should be" (de lege ferenda) perspectives. 105 for lawyers to achieve this creative goal and to synthesize the two competing scenarios of the future beyond the wto outlined in this chapter, it will be necessary, first, to work actively towards a cognitive change. applied to legal reasoning, it means to transcend an exclusively dualistic mode of reasoning, which means to solely rely on the "law of the excluded middle" (i.e. "everything must either be or not be."). 106 applied to the regulation of global trade, this kind of "either/or thinking" or that something either belongs to the sphere of trade or is classified as a "non-trade concern" must be complemented by the law of the included middle. the law of the included middle can be achieved through oxymoronic thinking by way of which, for instance, trade and non-trade concerns are not opposed to each other but where their apparent contradiction can be resolved at a higher level of reality or complexity. 107 more concretely, lawyers must be able cognitively to transcend the iron law of binary logic by also being versatile in reasoning based on polyvalent logic-a kind of multivalued logic in which there can be more than two truth values. 108 a good way to remind ourselves of this is given in the following quote: "laws may differ but they do not conflict: the only possible conflict is in the mind of the judge". 109 in this regard, legal education seems the best place to begin. 110 thus, addressing problems by legally expressing them solely using dichotomies is no longer apt to deal with their underlying complexity. it also means that a purely static approach should be complemented with a more dynamic one to ensure that laws are adopted in a way that embraces change ex ante and makes them fit for the future. in institutional terms, a more dynamic approach is also needed, as otherwise we merely observe their initial rise and subsequent demise. 111 in this respect, discursive institutionalism provides an excellent complement, as it regards norms as "dynamic, intersubjective constructs rather than static structures". 112 ultimately, it is submitted here that, based on this cognitive change, novel models of global institutions, like gaia 2048, can emerge. second, the cognitive changes of polyvalent or oxymoronic thinking, when combined with new organs of perception as symbolized by synaesthesia, will enable another important insight, which lies in the realization that the best way to predict the future is by creating (and regulating) it. this insight puts the theory of a selffulfilling prophecy into a new light, one which proves that theory and practice are intimately linked and that sociological predictions are "products of an era, co-determinants of what they assert". 113 when applied to humanity as a whole, predicting the future by creating it (and regulating it accordingly) means that if we plan something and act upon it coherently and persistently, it is more likely to happen, eventually. this, however, first requires a cognitive change in the understanding of humanity as a divided amalgam of different peoples or nations instead of an organic whole united in its diversity. only then can an adequate global governance mechanism capable of putting the necessary global legal order into place be expected to be brought forth. in short, the global governance paradox and other apparent contradictions can only be successfully addressed by expanding our reasoning from bivalent to polyvalent modes of thinking, as reflected in synaesthesia or in new optimized ways to receive and channel information through our different senses or, in legal terms, different institutions. applied to the dichotomy of the past versus the future, a new cognitive mode may one day enable humans to recall the fundamental importance of the present, that is, the magical power of the present to rewrite both the world of yesterday and the world of tomorrow. by the same token, humans can then eventually use the same magic to control the outcome between the two apparently opposite scenarios, the dystopian and the utopian one. for now, the two scenarios outlined in this chapter cannot answer the questions of whether or not, in our perception, linear time exists, or whether or not we have free will or all fate (including the fate of the wto) is already written in a comprehensive book of destiny. this chapter is equally unable to say whether a post-wto legal order will be able to avoid global disaster and humanity's as well as nature's demise. however, the hope is that the chapter shows that the many "scientifically fictitious" developments described in both the dystopian and the utopian scenarios concur in essence or are-if at all-divided by a very thin line, one merely drawn in our minds. nevertheless, this thin line determines how we will deal with the most urgent challenges in the anthropocene, or at any given point in time (when no longer understood as the linear process from the past to the future), because it clearly proves that today we humans cannot say that "we did not know (about the dangers and inherent consequences of our actions)". on the contrary, we can only say "we knew but did not care". 113 neurath (1973), pp. 405-406. g20 (2019) ministerial statement on trade and digital economy should robots pay taxes? tax policy in the age of automation failing states, collapsing systems: biophysical triggers of political violence cryptocurreny 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guide to geoblocking key: cord-027700-dezg4155 authors: chehab, khalil; kalboussi, anis; hadj kacem, ahmed title: study of healthcare professionals’ interaction in the patient records based on annotations date: 2020-05-31 journal: the impact of digital technologies on public health in developed and developing countries doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-51517-1_28 sha: doc_id: 27700 cord_uid: dezg4155 the annotation practice is an almost daily activity; it is used by healthcare professionals (phc) to analyze, collaborate, share knowledge and communicate, between them, information present in the healthcare record of patients. these annotations are created in a healthcare cycle that consists of: diagnosis, treatment, advice, follow-up and observation. due to an exponential increase in the number of medical annotation systems that are used by different categories of health professionals, we are faced with a problem of lack of organization of medical annotation systems developed on the basis of formal criteria. as a result, we have a fragmented image of these annotations tools which make the mission of choice of an annotation system by a phc, in a well-defined context (biology, radiology…) and according to their needs to the functionalities offered by these tools, are difficult. in this article we present a classification of thirty annotation tools developed by industry and academia based on 5 generic criteria. we conclude this survey paper with model proposition. the paper annotation practice is very common. indeed, during our reading we are all accustomed to scribble our comments in a margin of document, to highlight, to circle sections, to paste post-it…, which aims to enrich and add value to information [40, 43] . annotation is a central practice in many professions: teachers annotate copies of students; professors exchange annotated documents during their work; engineers co build engines by annotating sketches of plans to make them evolve, doctors comment on patient folder, etc. [39, 44] . annotations thus, take various forms and are used for different functions [28] . moreover, computerization of documents offers us new perspectives to use these annotations (indexation, creation, document, assistance, etc.) which do not exist on paper [41] . assistance is a very important function that can be related to the annotation activity. annotative activity is different when dealing with the professional annotator case. these annotations are created in a specific context, will follow a path, developed for the purpose of determining a specific task etc. the annotation is expanded in a document flow. the latter is a carrier of the ratings. these annotations processed in this context are complementary. they provide us with information scattered over different documents. in fact, if we try to understand each one separately, in other words; if we separate an annotation from its creative context, we find that it does not make sense. in short, the annotation can be understood only in its semantic field. for this reason, the study of annotation in a professional context obliges us to implement an annotation model that describes what actually happens. this model must provide us with the necessary links either at the level of the annotated documents or at the level of the tasks made without forgetting to take into account the specificity of the annotation's production domain. the documents that usually belong to a folder that is made for the purpose of carrying out a task has a definite circuit that repeats itself each time one needs to do this task. the proper understanding of annotations can be done in its creative context. doctors in/after consultation [45] use internet to search information that can help him. based on their annotations it's possible to assist doctors and to gives him automatically pertinent information, from the net, after studying and analyzing their annotations. this paper is organized as follows: sect. 2 gives a classification of these tools based on several criteria; sect. 3 gives a model proposition. finally, sect. 4 concludes this article. in this work, we started with an exhaustive reading for the available papers on medical annotation systems (academic annotation system) and viewing the existing industrial annotation systems in the e-health domain. although the medical annotation systems have already been studied in a variety of contexts, yet when it comes to the phc to choose which system to use it is not a trivial task neither for a researcher to identify future research areas. this is because the annotation systems are so common and many of them share similar objectives. moreover, there are no formal criteria to facilitate the comparison between those systems and to guide phc choice or a researcher. as a result, there is a fragmented picture of these annotation tools. as far as we know, this is the first work to consider the classification of medical annotation system. when we determined the study of these systems we deduced that there are several common criteria which can classify these later. several studies have proposed classifications of annotation systems in several fields [34, 35, 37] or in the field of e-health [42, 43] . we propose a classification based on 5 criteria which are: type of medical annotation object, the medical annotation activity, healthcare professional (practitioner), type of annotation system, type of annotated resource. • cognitive: this annotation is created to be used by a human agent. in this case, the annotation requires a cognitive and intellectual effort to be interpreted. this annotation has a visible visual form on the document [34] . • computational: this annotation is intended to be processed and manipulated by software agents. these annotations are also called meta-data. they allow us to annotate computer resources to facilitate their exploitation by machines. annotation activity begins with the choice of anchor and annotation form in the annotation toolbar related to the annotation software. then, the annotation must complete the properties of the annotation; this process ends with the attachment of the annotation to a well-defined target. based on this process we can classify the annotative activity as: manual, semi-automatic or automatic [38] . • manual: the process already mentioned will be carried out totally by the user himself, who selects the form of the annotation, selects the anchor and creates the annotation. this process is similar to the process of annotation when a paper support is available. • automatic: the annotation process already mentioned is carried out totally by the machine. these annotations are based on either context sensors or pattern recognition techniques, etc. • semi-automatic: in this case, the process will be done from the start by the user. after a while, the system acquires and understands the way the user annotates. it moves to a suggestion of annotations that are automated, based on an annotation model built with rules under development. at this stage, human intervention remains just to validate or not validate and to refine the annotation rules created at a certain level, where there are no corrections and there is complete acceptance of the suggested rules, human intervention is canceled and the process becomes totally automated. it is the annotator that is equipped with an annotation system to use all the functionalities offered by the latter. in our case, the practitioners are healthcare professionals (doctor, nurse, biologist, and radiologist). the healthcare cycle is composed of four phases (diagnostic, treatment, advice, follow up and observation). each practitioner, with a medical annotation system, intervenes in one or many phases, according to their role, to accomplish a specific task in which annotation is made. • application: an application is created to annotate the resources already consulted. these applications offer several functionalities as the types below. • plug-in: these are the expansion modules, an external module that is added to a website or software and which will make it possible to provide annotation functionalities to the latter. • website: these are specialized websites to annotate consulted resources by registered users on the web. knowing the type of annotation system facilitates the development of a patient record model which will be proposed in future research. this model allows communicating with different types of medicals annotations systems. annotated resources can be: word document, pdf, image, text, video, html, audio, etc. table 1 presents a comparative study of the medical annotation systems seen in the bibliographical study using the 5 criteria already explained. table 1 presents a comparative study of thirty medical annotation systems seen in the bibliographical study using the 5 criteria already explained. these annotation systems are ranged on the table according of the chronological order of their publication year. several models are already seen in the literature [33, 35, 36] and [ 37] , these models present many problems, like the inexistence of the modeling of the cycle of care, the consideration of the annotation as an objective, no invocation of the services linked to the annotation, that not allows to use it in the healthcare domain. for this reason and based on the classifications already seen (sect. 2) we propose an annotation model that preserve the semantic of annotative activity in the health domain. our model must reflect the annotation process actually done; it must contain the following concepts: • basic_concept: this group contains the concepts that can exist in each domain. -place: this is the physical place where the annotation is produced by the annotator. -document: it's the annotated document. -part_document: professional documents are usually divided into parts. -element: each part_document consists of a set of elements. -part_element: it is the smallest granularity of document; it is a word, letter etc. in short, it is the annotated passage. • advice: patient education: how to live with this disease, how to act in case of emergency, how to take their drugs… • follow up and observation: this is the last step of the care cycle in which the doctor follows his patient until the stabilization of his condition. in this step, it can also make a strengthening of advice…. • service aspect: this aspect allows us to clarify the semantic of the annotation. it is used to interpret the meaning of the annotation by the annotator himself or by the software agents. -effect: the effect of annotation is the result of web service called from this annotation. the relationships between the concepts of ontology are described through the data model presented in fig. 1 as follows. there are only three type of cardinalities used in this model 1..*, 1 and *. an annotation is created by the phc with a device, at a date and in a place. this annotation is presented by a particular shape. it is pointed to an anchor and related to an annotated content that can be related to another annotated content. this annotated content is a part of the read document. the annotation contains an annotating content that can be related to others annotating contents. an annotating content can have a type. an annotation has an annotated content that is alone, and at the base of this content, annotating content can be created for one or more professionals since this content can be written differently for each destination. each domain has some specific concept. an annotation is related to specifics concept. the annotator, which is a phc, is identified by a name. the place is a location in a medical department especially in a specific service. each service has its own phcs that are classified into categories (medical, paramedic). in the category a phc can have a role and each role is related to a specific authority. a document is an element of a document package. a document package consists of the already known set of documents grouped together to perform a specific task. a document decomposed to parts, each one of it contains a set of elements (text box, radio button…). the annotated content can be an element or a part of an element (word, sentence…). a professional can have a power to launch tasks (medical_care). each healthcare cycle is divided into healthcare phases (diagnostic -treatment -advice -follow up and observation); the latter are linked together so we can fuse them once again when they are completed and we can follow the annotations of a healthcare cycle at the level of its phase. each healthcare phase can be divided itself. a healthcare cycle can also be linked to other healthcare cycle that has a relationship between them. in this paper, we studied annotation systems of the digital health domain available in industrial and research areas in order to propose a unified classification of this kind of system that is omnipresent in hospital information systems. this panoramic view provided is based on the classification of thirty different annotation systems developed in the literature over the past two decades. this organization of annotation tools is built on the basis of five criteria: type of annotation (computational/cognitive); category of annotation system (application/plug-in/website); type of annotative activity (manual/ semi-automatic/automatic); type of annotated resource (text/web page/video/image/ database) and practitioner (biologist/doctor/radiologist/nurse, etc.). this classification based on criteria, already explained in our study, which are transversal organizational criteria, facilitates the identification of limitations and possible challenges in the area of the medical annotation systems. based on this, we proposed an ontology that covers the identified challenges and lead to a more intelligent annotation system. in future research, we try to use the results of this study to create an annotation template for phcs and then try to generalize them to be functional for all professionals in different domains. we are also trying to create the computer services which allow the phc to be assisted throughout the care cycle. open access this chapter is licensed under the terms of the creative commons attribution 4.0 international license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the creative commons license and indicate if changes were made. the images or other third party material in this chapter are included in the chapter's creative commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. if material is not included in the chapter's creative commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. interactive genomic visualization for r/bioconductor odm summary: a tool for automatic structured comparison of multiple medical forms based on semantic annotation with the unified medical language system 3dbionotes v2. 0: a web server for the automatic annotation of macromolecular structures verdant: automated annotation, alignment and phylogenetic analysis of whole chloroplast genomes gidac: a prototype for bioimages annotation and clinical data integration vcf-miner: gui-based application for mining variants and annotations stored in vcf files the biodigital human: a web-based 3d platform for medical visualization and education equipement informatique des annotations et des pratiques d'écriture professionnelles: une étude ancrée pour l'organisation des soins en cancérologie (doctoral dissertation heideltime standalone manual version micropublications: a semantic model for claims, evidence, arguments and annotations in biomedical communications the biological reference repository (bior): a rapid and flexible system for genomics annotation 3d markup of radiological images in epad, a web-based image annotation tool visual interpretation with three-dimensional annotations (vita): three-dimensional image interpretation tool for radiological reporting marky: a lightweight web tracking tool for document annotation medetect: a lod-based system for collective entity annotation in biomedicine the flersa tool: adding semantics to a web content management system smitag: a social network for semantic annotation of medical images mammoapplet: an interactive java applet tool for manual annotation in medical imaging brat: a webbased tool for nlp-assisted text annotation idash: integrating data for analysis, anonymization, and sharing arthemis: annotation software in an integrated capturing and analysis system for colonoscopy les annotations pour supporter la collaboration dans le dossier patient électronique an interactive annotation system to support the learner with web services assistance a formal model of learner's annotations dedicated to web services invocation hospitexte: towards a document-based hypertextual electronic medical record annotative activity as a potential source of web service invocation modèles et outils d'annotations pour une mémoire personnelle de l'enseignant (doctoral dissertation les topic maps sont-ils un bon candidat pour l'ingénierie du web sémantique? comparative study of web annotation systems used by learners to enhance educational practices: features and services quels sites internet utilisent les médecins généralistes en consultation? enquête de pratique auprès de 100 médecins généralistes interoperability in healthcare: benefits, challenges and resolutions towards semantic interoperability in healthcare: ontology mapping from snomed-ct to hl7 version 3 towards data interoperability: practical issues in terminology implementation and mapping study of annotations in e-health domain an annotation model for patient record. health inf modèles et outils logiciels pour l'annotation sémantiquede documentspédagogiques (doctoral dissertation les topic maps sont-ils un bon candidat pour l'ingénierie du web sémantique modèles et outils d'annotations pour une mémoire personnelle de l'enseignant (doctoral dissertation dublin core metadata initiative. dublin core metadata element set, version annotea: an open rdf infrastructure for shared web annotations key: cord-020130-g9p5lgmn authors: ratshidi, lilies; grobbelaar, sara; botha, adele title: categorization of factors influencing community health workers from a socio-technical systems perspective date: 2020-03-10 journal: responsible design, implementation and use of information and communication technology doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-45002-1_8 sha: doc_id: 20130 cord_uid: g9p5lgmn in low-and-middle-income countries (lmics), community health workers (chws) are often seen as a connecting bridge between two dynamic and overlapping systemsthe community and formal health systems. although the importance of chws is acknowledged, there is minimal aggregated evidence contributing towards understanding their position, technological capabilities, barriers and facilitators of their effectiveness in the south african context. despite the widespread enthusiasm around the potential that mobile health (mhealth) technology holds in extending healthcare through chw to underserved communities, an understanding of mhealth’s various implications in a developing world context is imperative to appreciate both the community and health systems context. the chws within this context need to assume multiple roles as they work and live amongst and in the community. the study argues that by examining their multiple roles as part of the healthcare continuum and from within the community setting, appropriating technological solutions can be conceptualized to facilitate and enhance their impact and visibility. this research article then aims to articulate the key conceptual factors which should be considered when implementing technological solutions for chws within the south african context. the aim is operationalized by means of the best-fit framework synthesis method to explore the body of knowledge towards presenting a conceptual understanding through a categorization of factors influencing community health workers from a socio-technical systems perspective. the constitution of south africa enshrines the provision of healthcare access as a basic human right for all its citizens. however, the south african healthcare system is fraught with challenges, some of the major ones include the inadequacy of human and equipment resources [1] , difficulties in synergizing and collaborating policies and lack of legislative commitment to improving the public health sector [2] . according to the world health organization, the shortage of healthcare workers is a major challenge in a country's ability to overhaul its healthcare system and ultimately, achieve universal healthcare coverage [2] . given south africa's limited resources, the need for costeffective strategies is paramount. recent studies [3, 4] identify an adequately competent workforce with multi-faceted roles as having the potential to relieve some of the healthcare system burdens by bridging the healthcare equity gap. several authors [1, 2, 4] have suggested that chws as a workforce could be beneficial in the south african context. in addition, it is noted that chws are considered a dependable vehicle to provide quality contextual health services both in urban and rural settings within the south african context [5] . the south african government has introduced various initiatives to address the historic disparate healthcare system [1] . one such initiative is the national development plan for 2030 that involves building human resources to ensure shared competencies for the health system as part of its plan of action. part of this plan includes a goal of employing and training between 700 000 and 1.3 million chws to implement community-based primary healthcare [5] . regardless of the effort needed to reach this goal quantitively, it can be argued that the potential benefits of chws have not to be realized. this can be attributed to a misalignment in national policies and standards to their work practices, and the significant barriers in training chws to function at the expected level of competence [2, 6] . with the widespread use of mobile technology in sub saharan africa over the past years, there is an estimated increase to 40% of mobile internet penetration [7] . there is mounting evidence that suggests the use of mobile health has the potential to enable chws to mitigate some of the challenges faced [7] . consequently, the utilization of technology as a viable solution for chws has steadily gained significant popularity. despite this, various authors' calls for research specifically focused on investigating mhealth implementation for chws in low-and-medium-income countries (lmics). the definition of lmics adopted was according to the world bank classification with the study focusing more on the sub-saharan region [8] . winters et al. [9] articulate this as a call for more robust evidence on mobile technology implementation strategies as a means of supporting chw practices [9] . granja et al. [10] suggest the successful implementation of technological solutions interventions can be improved through the identification of factors that influences the intervention's outcomes. from these insights, it can be inferred that an in-depth understanding of the healthcare domain and the processes of technology adoption and use by chw are a needed step towards achieving the full potential of mhealth. in this regard, various studies have identified factors influencing chws. these factors include their perceived performance, motivation and job satisfaction [6, 10] . however, verification of how these factors affect the implementation and evaluation of technological solutions for lmics has not sufficiently been documented. this study aims to articulate the key conceptual factors which should be considered when implementing technological solutions for chws within the south african context. the paper outline is as follows: method, descriptive statistics of the results, discussion and construction of the framework, and the conclusion. the study is grounded in social and technical perspectives as it facilitates the duality of the chws' work and community role, further adopts the technique of the "best-fit" framework synthesis method in the exploration. the best-fit framework synthesis is defined in [12] as "a means to test, reinforce and build on an existing model, conceived for a potentially different but relevant population". this method involves creating or employing a framework with priori themes and using it to code the data obtained from the relevant studies as a means to produce a rapid and pragmatic form of synthesis [12] . it advises the use of criteria; one for identifying the models and theories to generate a priori framework, and one for populating the scoping review of primary qualitative research studies. in this study, only one set of the literature search and a study selection was considered for the scoping review as the socio-technical system (sts) framework was used as a priori framework. figure 1 illustrates the methodology approach applied. davis et al. [13] describes the sts framework as a system which considers the people involved with distinct social behaviors and skills, working within a physical infrastructure, using a range of technologies and tools to achieve a set of goals and metrics by following sets of processes and practices under a set of cultural assumptions and norms [12, 13] . sts is defined as an approach to complex work design consisting of technical systems; social systems with an interplay of human agents employing social dependencies that either hold or emerge between them; and finally, organizations that are heterogeneous within unpredictable operational environments, which are autonomous and poorly controllable [14] . the sts theory premises on the combination of social and technical aspects to design a functional work system that can cope with the complexities of the environment within which the system operates in, as well as the dynamics introduced by new technological interventions [15] . hence, to account for the delicate dynamic relationships within the chws' work system, the sts framework was used to diagnose, identify and categorize the literature into the factors and interactions between the social and technical elements, and a summary of the study characteristics was transferred to excel for further synthesis, where they were categorized as either technical or social to generate key inferences regarding the factors which should be considered. the six interrelated elements used are people, infrastructures, goals, technologies, culture, and processes embedded within an external environment [13] . having overviewed the methodology approach the following section outlines the search strategy employed. in [13] , six interrelated elements were presented in the conceptualization of an sts and were used to evaluate the initiatives documented in the literature, from which relevant factors related to each element were identified. a broad literature search was conducted on scopus, google, research gate, and google scholar to identify studies related to chw initiatives and technology implementation previously conducted in lmics. the keywords used for the search were: chws, framework, technology, healthcare innovation ecosystem, social factors, technical factors, socio-technical systems approach in healthcare, and lmics. figure 2 illustrates how the selected inclusion criteria were applied to identify the relevant articles. an iterative process facilitated the addition and removal of studies that were not explicitly addressed by the inclusion criteria. the data extraction process involved recording the full-text articles into publication year, region setting, study type, methodology and key findings after which the six elements were used to identify the relevant factors from the selected literature and categorize them under social or technical perspective [13] . of the 20 articles included for full-text analysis, most of them used qualitative and mixed methods inquiries involving interviews, focus group discussions with chws, healthcare systems stakeholders from government and non-governmental initiatives. the studies were conducted in lmics including south africa, uganda, ethiopia, kenya, mozambique, india, and zimbabwe. the type of publications resulted in 10 articles on reviews, 6 articles on empirical and 4 on analysis studies. the conceptualization of an sts presented in [13] was adapted and applied to the categorization in this study. the following discussion reflects on the analysis and synthesis deduced from the identified literature studies and used to categorize the relevant factors. a study by naimoli et al. [16] posit that the health outcomes achieved through chws programs are a function of a robust, high performing health and community sectoral systems. the study further postulates that the programming activities categorized under social, technical and incentives support functions are influenced by a range of contextual factors in both community and health sectoral systems [16] . however, the narrative presented in the previous studies alludes there is unbalanced attention on the impact of the complex and diverse context-specific nature within which chws work and live in [17] . as a result, de neve et al. [17] propose the need for countries to develop coherent and context-specific approaches to ensure optimal performance by chws through the consideration of the broader context, including demographic, socioeconomic, political, legislative, ecological, sociocultural, and technological factors contributing towards facilitating or inhibiting the success of many chws initiatives [18, 19] . some of the solutions to achieve what is postulated in the studies include coordinating the health system and community system to prioritize factors that inhibit or facilitate the understanding of chws programs' compatibility with community structures, cultural values, and perception, socio-economic context and support system [20] . in addition, integrating and adopting interventions supported by technological solutions, and the sustainability of these interventions should be considered when exploring efforts until the desired health outcomes are achieved to gain a better understanding of chws programs and their roles in lmics [17] . previous research that was focused on chws and their performance placed emphasis on developing frameworks that provide a broad context of the chw's position in a larger environment by describing the interrelations of intrapersonal, family, community, and organizational settings as health professionals [6, 10] . this perspective to a larger extent provides a limited understanding of the impact of the ecological environment on chws [20] . most programs have not been able to effectively address the gap between research evidence and the routine practicality of chws as health professions, hence the poor integration of chws within the healthcare system and an even poorer understanding of their roles within their communities. subsequently, the implication of this postulates the need for a comprehensive approach to plan and design programs that can be integrated with the formal healthcare system's approach to healthcare service delivery through chws roles and organizations [17] . moreover, the chw system requires an interface with the formal healthcare and the community systems involving the political structures, civic groups, faith-based organizations. schneider and lehmann [21] argue that integrating chws into the primary healthcare systems while embedding and supporting them through the community is vital to realize their potential. contrarily, most studies emphasize the need for chws to be integrated within the formal healthcare system whilst placing minimal emphasis on understanding how they are embedded within the community system [21] . moreover, minimal work has been done locally in terms of implementing universal guidelines to guide the integration strategies required to resolve the above-stated implications. previous research has proved that the effectiveness of chws holds the potential to increase access to equitable health in lmics [20] . as a result, chws' understanding of the socio-cultural norms of their communities, their unique intermediary position between communities and the health system places them in a central setting in delivering key health interventions. on an individual level, their effectiveness is influenced by contextual factors, such as socio-cultural factors, gender, traditions and norms, training and supervision, health policies combined with intervention-related factors [22] . furthermore, it is postulated in [16] that support for chws has to be strategic, collaborative and well-coordinated to enhance chws performance between the two overlapping dynamic systems they are expected to function within. among the key challenges presented in the study, the definition and optimization of the impact of the chws' roles are highlighted as an influence on chw performance. also, [3] argues that government and non-governmental institutions are continuously adding functions and tasks to chws, which buttresses the need to inform the type of tasks and position they hold within the healthcare system through competency-based or educational qualification rather than on functionalities. in most lmics such as south africa, the roles and responsibilities of chws with regards to technical and social capital is limited and yet to be understood [11] . khalala et al. [23] state that understanding the nature of the work chws do, enables researchers to explore the relevant technologies that can be exploited to facilitate and support their daily work. this understanding potentially provides information with regards to the choice of technology and how it can be implemented to support the roles of chws. regardless of the evidence on the social factors influencing chws, the exact mechanisms on how to assess the interdependencies of social and technical dynamics' influence on chws outcomes remains understudied. technologies are not neutral or passive objects but rather shape the environment and provoke social dynamics as a result of their existence and necessity for human survival. previous studies reveal that technologies have the potential to influence social, cultural and economic contexts and improve healthcare quality for communities when employed in the healthcare domain [24] . expectedly, the use of mobile technology in south africa in the healthcare system has also increased, particularly among chws [25] . despite chws having limited formal education and training, with poorly defined roles in using technologies within their line of work, it has been emphasized in [4] that most research has focused on the usability and reliability of technologies with minimal emphasis on the users and the important aspect that they are social beings who interact with their immediate and remote communities. iluyemi et al. [26] state that to conceptualize technological solutions and their policy interventions, it is important to start by gaining an understanding of the context of use and needs for the technology from the chws' perspective. in addition, the challenges of technology's usability and supportive structures. existing literature have focused on the reliability, functionality and infrastructure of the technology while paying minimal attention to the end-users perception on the usability and intentions to use the technology, as a result most of the research focus on the technical characteristics whilst neglecting the impact of the social characteristics of both the individual and community setting where the technology is utilized [27] . nonetheless, this implies there is a need to conceptualize the appropriate technologies which can both fit the task they are used to as well as have the capabilities to perform the task. moreover, technology and policy interventions are deemed as necessary developments to enhance technological effectiveness and efficiency, and to ensure sustainability and scalability through the initiatives whilst amplifying their impact [28] . thus, the technology acceptance dimensions are considered in describing the understanding of the technological capabilities of chws, their ability to access and utilize the appropriate technologies applicable to their social backgrounds. there is undeniable evidence from previous studies about the importance of considering the sociotechnical determinants in developing implementation and evaluation conceptual models for technological solutions. determinants including technological appropriateness and socio-cultural sensitivity, political infrastructures, the technology endusers' attributes and variables of ecological settings [29] . in a formative study about the adoption and usage of mhealth by chws in india, kaphle et al. [20] hypothesized that individual characteristics of end-users such as education, experience of care, and demographics hold the potential to influence the uptake of technological adoptions and quality of care. in addition, kim et al. [30] reinforces that the attitude of health professions to use technology influences the behavioral intention to use it. as a result, the relationship between technology and chws' performance is associated with their readiness to align their behavioral intention to use the technology. important to note, technological solutions and processes are not autonomous vehicles, but rather are embedded within systems in a social world where they are used to perform activities which have consequences and influences changes on human behavior, social constructs, and cultural meanings. thus, the effect of this is that not only does the interaction between the technical and social systems exhibit complexity and unpredictable behavior; it inevitably increases the complexities of dynamic and autonomous relationships, which can be detrimental to the system in place. from the above sections, the following is presented in summary to illustrate the factors identified in the discussion using the sts hexagon for illustration as provided in [13] . figure 3 illustrates the social and technical perspectives identified from previous literature according to [13] . from the discussion above, the factors (see fig. 3 ) were categorized into concepts according to their similarities to allow for a reasonable number of concepts to be considered. the approach followed in this study desired that the design activities involve gaining understanding and specification of the context in which the system will be used by referring to the social factors, cultural factors, working practices factors, and the structure of the organization [31] . thus, the terminologies for the concepts were adapted from this standpoint and were cautiously selected by the author through interpretation about the relevant literature as a means to preserve the relevance of the factors. the concepts were grouped under technical and social context depending on the interpretation of the author, from there, they were categorized under the two social dimensions: health and community systems context depending on whether the influence of the factor on the chws was related and reflective of the context in question. this study considers the following fundamental areas under the social system: the individual's needs, humans' social behaviors in work systems, internal and external environmental factors and support systems of the work system under investigation [15] . whilst the technical system focuses on the processes, tasks, infrastructures, and technologies required and used in the work system to achieve the set goals [14] . additionally, the technical dimensions included technology readiness which was concerned with categorizing the factors related to the technological solutions characteristics and compatibility to be used. the second dimension was technology acceptance and utilization which was concerned with factors concerning the chws perspectives and readiness to use and accept the technological solution within the environment they work. finally, the compatibility/fit element was considered as a means to provide the measures required to ensure a balanced joint optimization of both the technical and social aspects [31] . figure 4 illustrates the concepts classed under social and technical context. this research article aimed to articulate the key conceptual factors which should be considered when implementing technological solutions for chws within the south african context. the sts framework was used for the categorization of the factors which were integrated into concepts. for future work, each of these concepts will be evaluated and the categorization refined to present a broader conceptual framework. this study forms part of a dissertation project and the findings in this study form part of the first high-level conceptual framework which will be used in conducting scoping literature review to identify additional components for the secondary-level conceptual framework. in addition, future plans involve exploring the task-technology fit model to identify the relevant technological solutions fit for peri-urban and rural contexts in south africa. challenges of quality improvement in the healthcare of south africa post-apartheid: a critical review community health workers lensed through a south african backdrop of two peri-urban communities in kwazulu-natal who is a community health worker? -a systematic review of definitions use of mobile health (mhealth) technologies and interventions among community health workers globally: a scoping review perceived mhealth barriers and benefits for home-based hiv testing and counseling and other care: qualitative findings from health officials, community health workers, and persons living with hiv in south africa affecting factors on the performance of community health workers in iran's rural areas: a review article systematic review on what works, what does not work and why of implementation of mobile health (mhealth) projects in africa world bank country and lending groups -world bank data help desk using mobile technologies to support the training of community health workers in low-income and middle-income countries: mapping the evidence factors determining the success and failure of ehealth interventions: systematic review of the literature empowering community health workers with technology solutions best fit" framework synthesis: refining the method advancing sociotechnical systems thinking: a call for bravery adaptive socio-technical systems: a requirementsbased approach what encourages community health workers to use mobile technologies for health interventions? emerging lessons from rural rwanda strategic partnering to improve community health worker programming and performance: features of a community-health system integrated approach harmonizing community-based health worker programs for hiv: a narrative review and analytic framework factors associated with community health worker performance differ by task in a multitasked setting in rural zimbabwe which intervention design factors influence performance of community health workers in low-and middle-income countries? a systematic review adoption and usage of mhealth technology on quality and experience of care provided by frontline workers: observations from rural india from community health workers to community health systems: time to widen the horizon? community health workers in rural india: analysing the opportunities and challenges accredited social health activists (ashas) face in realising their multiple roles the roles and needs of community health workers in developing countries: an exploratory case study in south africa technology enabled health" -insights from twitter analytics with a socio-technical perspective adapting mhealth to workflow -a case study in south africa mobile information system, health work and community health workers in less developed countries scoping review assessing the evidence used to support the adoption of mobile health (mhealth) technologies for the education and training of community health workers (chws) in low-income and middle-income countries m-health adoption by healthcare professionals: a systematic review enablers and inhibitors: a review of the situation regarding mhealth adoption in low-and middle-income countries analysis of the factors influencing healthcare professionals' adoption of mobile electronic medical record (emr) using the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (utaut) in a tertiary hospital socio-technical systems: from design methods to systems engineering key: cord-134378-p83nhiz9 authors: setlur, vidya; kumar, arathi title: sentifiers: interpreting vague intent modifiers in visual analysis using word co-occurrence and sentiment analysis date: 2020-09-26 journal: nan doi: nan sha: doc_id: 134378 cord_uid: p83nhiz9 natural language interaction with data visualization tools often involves the use of vague subjective modifiers in utterances such as"show me the sectors that are performing"and"where is a good neighborhood to buy a house?."interpreting these modifiers is often difficult for these tools because their meanings lack clear semantics and are in part defined by context and personal user preferences. this paper presents a system called system that makes a first step in better understanding these vague predicates. the algorithm employs word co-occurrence and sentiment analysis to determine which data attributes and filters ranges to associate with the vague predicates. the provenance results from the algorithm are exposed to the user as interactive text that can be repaired and refined. we conduct a qualitative evaluation of the sentifiers system that indicates the usefulness of the interface as well as opportunities for better supporting subjective utterances in visual analysis tasks through natural language. understanding user intent in a query has been recognized as an important aspect of any natural language (nl) interaction system [9, 25] . search queries typically consist of keywords and terms called modifiers that imply a diverse set of search intents [23] . while basic keyword matches from users' search queries might elicit a reasonable set of results, interpreting modifiers provides a better understanding of the semantics in the queries [26] . recently, nl interfaces for visual analysis tools have garnered interest in supporting expressive ways for users to interact with their data and see results expressed as visualizations [1-3, 15, 19, 22, 30, 35, 36] . users often employ vague language while formulating natural language queries when exploring data such as "which country has a high number of gold medals?" or "what time of the day do more bird strikes occur?" [21] . there has been some precedence of research to better understand how these simple vague modifiers comprising of superlatives and numerical graded adjectives should be appropriately interpreted [21, 31] . however, users also employ less concrete and often subjective modifiers such as 'best', 'safe', and 'worse' in utterances [21] . the interpretation of such modifiers makes it challenging for natural language interfaces to precisely determine the extensions of such concepts and mapping intent to the analytical functions provided in the visual analysis systems. contribution this paper introduces sentifiers, 1 a system to explore reasonable interpretations and defaults for such subjective vague modifiers in natural language interfaces for visual analysis. the algorithm identifies numerical attributes that can be associated with a modifier using word co-occurrence. sentiment analysis determines the filter ranges applied to the attributes. similar polarities result in associating the top n of data values for an attribute with the modifier, while diverging polarities are mapped to the bottom n. figure 1a indicates that 'unsafe' and the attribute magnitude have similar negative sentiment polarities, defaulting to a higher earthquake magnitude range as seen in the map. the system has the ability to utilize any domain-specific information if available, such as wolframalpha [4] . figure 1b shows diverging polarities for the modifier 'struggling' paired with attributes incomepercapita and lifeexpectancy. lower numerical filter ranges based on the statistical properties of the data are applied to generate the scatterplot. interactive text is displayed to show the provenance of the system's interpretation with clickable portions exposed as widgets that can be refined by the user. an evaluation of the system provides useful insights for future system design of nl input systems for supporting vague concepts in visual analysis. research exploring the semantics of vague concepts for understanding intent transcends three main categories: (1) computational linguistics, (2) intent and modifiers in search systems, and (3) natural language interaction for visual analysis. the notion of vagueness in language has been studied in the computational linguistics community [32] . research has focused on the conceptualization and representation of vague knowledge [8] . the vague system introduces a technique for generating referring expressions that included gradable adjectives [39] . de melo et al. infer adjective grade ordering from large corpora [14] and vegnaduzzo automatically detects subjective adjectives [40] . computational linguists have developed approaches for subjectivity and polarity labeling of word senses [6, 42] . in our work, we draw inspiration from linguistic literature, specifically polarity identification for computing the semantics around vague subjective concepts. search systems have explored techniques to deduce intent in queries during exploratory search. several techniques exist to extract entityoriented search intent to improve query suggestions and recommendations [16] . detecting intent in search systems is also based on query topic classification [33] . bendersky et al. assign weights to terms in a search query based on concept importance [7] . recent work has focused on deriving query intent by fitting queries into templates [5, 25] . li et al. employ semantic and syntactic features to decompose queries into keywords and intent modifiers [25] . researchers have predicted search intent and intentional task types from search behavior [12, 28] . while the goal of our work to interpret intent in queries is similar to that of search tasks, we focus on resolving vague modifiers to generate relevant visualization responses. similar to search systems, natural language interfaces for visual analysis need to understand intent and handle modifiers in the utterances. datatone provides ambiguity widgets to allow a user to update the system's default interpretation [19] . eviza and analyza support simple pragmatics in analytical interaction through contextual inferencing [15, 30] . evizeon [22] and orko [35] extend pragmatics in analytical conversation. none of these systems consider how imprecise modifiers can be interpreted. the ask data system describes the handling of numerical vague concepts such as 'cheap' and 'high' by inferring a range based on the underlying statistical properties of the data [31] . hearst et al. explore appropriate visualization responses to singular and plural superlatives and numerical graded adjectives based on the shape of the data distributions [21] . we extend this work to more vague, subjective modifiers. we introduce a system, sentifiers that interprets vague modifiers such as 'safe' and 'struggling' in a nl interface for visual analysis. the system employs a web-based architecture with the input query processed by an antlr parser with a context-free grammar, similar to parsers described in [22, 30] . a data manager provides information about the data attributes and executes queries to retrieve data. the query upon execution, generates a d3 visualization result [10] . the process for resolving a set of data attributes and their values to a modifier found in the nl input to sentifiers, is outlined as: input: natural language utterance α output: generate visualization response α is the nl input utterance. m is the vague modifier in the utterance α. part-of-speech tagger pos identifies m in α. attrs num is the set of numerical attributes in the dataset d. attrs cnum is the set of co-occurring numerical attributes in d with attrs cnum ∈ attrs num . pmi computes co-occurrence scores w c for m and attrs num . polarity computes sentiment polarities p for m and attrs cnum . 1 invoke pos(α) returning m. 2 compute pmi(m, attrs num ) → w c for each attr i ∈ attrs cnum . 3 compute polarity(m, attrs cnum ) → p. 4 update interface based on w c and p. vague modifiers are gradable adjectives that modify nouns and and are associated with an abstract scale ordered by their semantic intensity [24] . gradable adjectives can be classified into two categories based on their interpretation as measure functions [24] . numerical graded adjectives such as 'large' and 'cheap' are viewed as measurements that are associated with a numerical quantity for size and cost respectively. complex graded adjectives like 'good' and 'healthy' tend to be underspecified for the exact feature being measured. while the interpretation of numerical gradable adjectives has been explored in nl interfaces for visual analysis [21, 30, 31] , this paper specifically focuses on the handling of complex gradable adjectives. sentifiers first applies a commonly used performant partof-speech (pos) tagger during the parsing process to identify these complex gradable adjectives and their referring attributes in the nl utterances [37] . the system can distinguish complex gradable adjectives by checking for the absence of superlative or comparative tags that are used to annotate numerical graded adjectives. the next step maps the vague modifier to a scale based on its semantic intensity so that the modifier can be interpreted as a set of numerical filters for generating a visualization response. we base our approach on linguistic models that represent the subjectivity of complex modifiers as a generalized measure mapping the modifier to numerical attributes in a multidimensional space [18] . for example, the subjectivity of the modifier 'healthy' can be interpreted based on 'weight', 'amount of exercise', and 'hospital visits.' sentifiers computes the semantic relatedness between the modifier and the numerical data attributes using a co-occurrence measure. to have sufficient coverage for co-occurrence, we use an extensive google n-grams 2 corpus [27] . to maximize the chances of cooccurrence, sentifiers considers co-occurrence between all n-gram combinations of the modifier and the attribute names. for example, some of the n-grams for the attribute income per capita are 'income per capita,' 'income per,' 'per capita,' and 'income. ' we employ a pointwise mutual information measure (pmi), an information-theoretic measure that quantifies the probability of how tightly occurring a modifier m and a numerical attribute attr num are to the probability of observing the terms independently [13] . we found this measure to work well and was performant with terse word co-occurrence pairings without requiring sentence embeddings. we consider any numerical attribute attr cnum that has a non-zero pmi score, indicating the presence of a co-occurrence with m. the pmi of modifier n-gram t m with one of the attribute n-grams t attr is: once the modifier is semantically associated with co-occurring numerical attributes, we need to determine a reasonable numerical range to associate with the modifier. sentiment polarity analysis is a linguistic technique that uses positive and negative lexicons to determine the polarity of a phrase [43] . the technique provides the ability to dynamically compute the sentiment of the phrase based on the context in which its terms co-occur rather than pre-tagging the phrase with absolute polarities, which is often not scalable. we determine the individual sentiment scores with a sentiment classification based on a recursive neural tensor network [34] . we choose this technique as its models handle negations and reasonably predict sentiments of terser phrases, characteristic of queries to sentifiers. the sentiments are returned as a 5-class classification: very negative, negative, neutral, positive, and very positive. the values are normalized as [−1, +1], ranging from negative to positive to provide an overall sentiment. we then determine the sentiment polarities of the modifier m and co-occurring attribute attr cnum pair based on their individual sentiments (ignoring the strength of the sentiments) using the following combinatorial logic. we treat neutral sentiment similar to positive sentiment as neutral text tends to lie near the positive boundary of a positive-negative binary classifier [43] . if (sentiment m == positive or sentiment m == neutral) and (sentiment attr cnum == positive or sentiment attr cnum == neutral) then compute topn(attr cnum ). else if (sentiment m == positive or sentiment m == neutral) and sentiment attr cnum == negative then compute bottomn(attr cnum ). else if sentiment m == negative and (sentiment attr cnum == positive or sentiment attr cnum == neutral) then compute bottomn(attr cnum ). else if sentiment m == negative and sentiment attr cnum == negative then compute topn(attr cnum ). end if sentifiers uses sentiment polarities to compute the ranges in two ways: if domain knowledge exists, the system uses the information to determine a default (figure 3a uses the richter scale [4] ). otherwise, the system computes top n to range from [med + mad, max] and bottom n to range from [min, abs(med − mad)] where med, mad, min, and max are the median, median absolute deviation, minimum, and maximum values for attr cnum respectively (see figure 3b ). we choose mad as it tends to be less affected by non-normality [11] . figure 1 shows the sentifiers interface with an input field that accepts text queries. upon execution of the query, range filters for the cooccurring numerical attributes are applied, showing a visualization response. the system interpretation is expressed in the form of interactive text [41] above the visualization (figure 4a ) to help the user understand the provenance of how the modifier was interpreted. positive, negative, and neutral sentiments are shown in blue, red, and yellow respectively (figure 4b) . the text contains widgets that show ranges starting from the highest co-occurring one. similar to other nl systems [19, 30, 31] , we expose system presumptions as widgets (figure 4c ). if domain-specific semantics are used, a link to the source is provided (figure 1a) . to provide easier readability, sentifiers displays up to two widgets. word co-occurrence and sentiment analysis techniques can result in incorrect results. the user has the ability repair the system decisions (figures 4d and f ) and the interface updates to reflect the changes (figure 4e ). these refinements are persistent for the duration of the user session. we conducted a user study of sentifiers with the following goals: (1) collect qualitative feedback on the handling of the modifiers for various visual analysis tasks and (2) identify system limitations. this information would help provide insights as to how the handling of complex vague modifiers could integrate into a more comprehensive nl visual analysis interface. the study was exploratory in nature where we observed the types of vague modifiers people asked and how they responded to the system behavior. because the main goal of our study was to gain qualitative insight in the system behavior, we encouraged participants to think aloud with the experimenter. figure 4 : interactive text response to a query "which countries are booming?". sentifiers provides the ability to refine the system defaults. we recruited ten volunteers (five males, five females, age 24 -65). all were fluent in english and all regularly used some type of nl interface such as google. eight used a visualization tool on a regular basis and the rest considered themselves beginners. each participant was randomly assigned a dataset of earthquakes in the us [38] or the health and wealth of nations [20] with equal number of participants for each. we began with a short introduction of how to use the system. participants were instructed to phrase their queries in whatever way that felt most natural and to tell us whenever the system did something unexpected. we discussed reactions to system behavior throughout the session and concluded with an interview. the study trials were done remotely over a shared videoconference to conform with social distancing protocol due to covid-19. all sessions took approximately 30 minutes. we employed a mixed-methods approach involving qualitative and quantitative analysis, but considered the quantitative analysis mainly as a complement to our qualitative findings. the quantitative analysis consisted of the number of times participants used vague subjective modifiers and interacted with the text response. overall, participants were positive about the system and identified many benefits. several participants were impressed with the ability of the system to understand their queries ("i typed scary to see what it would do, and it understood." [p2]). sentifiers' text feedback was found to be helpful ("i wasn't sure how the system would handle this, but it was pretty clear when i saw the response" [p4]). the participants appreciated the functionality to be able to correct the system's response ("i wanted to tweak the range a bit and it was useful to be able to change the slider and see the result update" [p9]). the number of unique vague modifiers per participant ranged from 3 to 12 (µ = 6.7) with a total of 24 unique complex modifiers overall. the three most common modifiers were 'good', 'bad', 'severe' for the earthquakes dataset and 'prosperous', 'flourishing', 'poor' for the health and wealth of nations dataset. all participants interacted with the text response to understand the system behavior. the most common interaction was updating the data ranges for the attributes (69% of the interactions), followed by adding new attributes (23%), and deleting attributes from the interpreted result (8%). comments relevant to this behavior included, "the range seemed high for me and i changed it. it was nice to see the system remember that" [p10], "i wanted population to be added to the mix and it was easy to just click and do that" [p3], and "i wasn't interested in life expectancy so i just got rid of it" [p1]. the study also revealed several shortcomings and provides opportunities for future nl systems supporting visual analysis tasks: support for more complex interpretations: the current implementation does not support combinations of vague modifiers in the same query. for example, the system was unable to interpret "show me countries that are doing very well and poorly." [p4]. p2 expressed that they wanted flexibility in defining analytical functions such as associating 'unsafe' to the frequency of recently occurring earthquakes with magnitude 5 are greater. sentifiers failed to correctly interpret queries such as "which countries are reasonably doing well," where p7 expected some middle range, though they were able to adjust the ranges after. a comprehensive evaluation with additional datasets would be necessary to ascertain how effective this system would be alongside standard visual analysis tools. handling customization and in-situ curation: the topic of customization of the interpretation behavior came up during the study. for example, p1 said "i typed -show me which countries are affordable and it showed me an income range. i was expecting a response that considered inflation, gdp or have a way for me to define that." the algorithms employed in sentifiers assume that the data attributes are curated with human-readable words and phrases. however, data is often messy with domain-specific terminology. future work should explore mechanisms for users to customize semantics of attributes and interpretations in the flow of their analysis. handling system expectations, biases, and failures: nl algorithms have shown to exhibit socio-economic biases, including gender and racial assumptions often due to the nature of the training data [17] . their use can perpetuate and even amplify cultural stereotypes in nl systems. for example, p7 commented, "i asked for good places to live and the system responded with a high income per capita. to me, that opens up bigger issues such as gentrification and economic segregation." this suggests that there is a responsibility for improved transparency in system behavior; determining appropriate de-biasing methods remains an open research problem. this paper presents a technique to explore how a system can interpret subjective modifiers prevalent in natural language queries during visual analysis. using word co-occurrence and sentiment polarities, we implement sentifiers to map these modifiers to more concrete functions. we expose the provenance of the system's behavior as an interactive text response. an evaluation of the system indicates that participants found the system to be intuitive and appreciated the ability to refine the system choices. feedback from interacting with sentifiers identifies opportunities for handling vagueness in language in the future design of such natural language tools to support data exploration. as bertrand russell stated [29] -"everything is vague to a degree you do not realize till you have tried to make it precise." towards rich query interpretation: walking back and forth for mining query templates improving the impact of subjectivity word sense disambiguation on contextual opinion analysis learning concept importance using a weighted dependence model selected papers -uncertain reasoning track -flairs computational semantics in discourse: underspecification, resolution, and inference d3: data-driven documents doing better statistics in human-computer interaction actively predicting diverse search intent from user browsing behaviors word association norms, mutual information, and lexicography good, great, excellent: global inference of semantic intensities analyza: exploring data with conversation mining coordinated intent representation for entity search and recommendation bias in computer systems multidimensionality in the grammar of gradability data-tone: managing ambiguity in natural language interfaces for data visualization toward interface defaults for vague modifiers in natural language interfaces for visual analysis applying pragmatics principles for interaction with visual analytics determining the user intent of web search engine queries projecting the adjective: the syntax and semantics of gradability and comparison. outstanding dissertations in linguistics. garland understanding the semantic structure of noun phrase queries introduction to information retrieval quantitative analysis of culture using millions of digitized books extracting information seeking intentions for web search sessions the analysis of mind eviza: a natural language interface for visual analysis inferencing underspecified natural language utterances in visual analysis vagueness in context building bridges for web query classification recursive deep models for semantic compositionality over a sentiment treebank orko: facilitating multimodal interaction for visual exploration and analysis of networks articulate: a semi-automated model for translating natural language queries into meaningful visualizations featurerich part-of-speech tagging with a cyclic dependency network usgs. earthquake facts and statistics generating vague descriptions acquisition of subjective adjectives with limited resources explorable explanations creating subjective and objective sentence classifiers from unannotated texts articles: recognizing contextual polarity: an exploration of features for phrase-level sentiment analysis key: cord-007708-hr4smx24 authors: van kampen, antoine h. c.; moerland, perry d. title: taking bioinformatics to systems medicine date: 2015-08-13 journal: systems medicine doi: 10.1007/978-1-4939-3283-2_2 sha: doc_id: 7708 cord_uid: hr4smx24 systems medicine promotes a range of approaches and strategies to study human health and disease at a systems level with the aim of improving the overall well-being of (healthy) individuals, and preventing, diagnosing, or curing disease. in this chapter we discuss how bioinformatics critically contributes to systems medicine. first, we explain the role of bioinformatics in the management and analysis of data. in particular we show the importance of publicly available biological and clinical repositories to support systems medicine studies. second, we discuss how the integration and analysis of multiple types of omics data through integrative bioinformatics may facilitate the determination of more predictive and robust disease signatures, lead to a better understanding of (patho)physiological molecular mechanisms, and facilitate personalized medicine. third, we focus on network analysis and discuss how gene networks can be constructed from omics data and how these networks can be decomposed into smaller modules. we discuss how the resulting modules can be used to generate experimentally testable hypotheses, provide insight into disease mechanisms, and lead to predictive models. throughout, we provide several examples demonstrating how bioinformatics contributes to systems medicine and discuss future challenges in bioinformatics that need to be addressed to enable the advancement of systems medicine. systems medicine fi nds its roots in systems biology, the scientifi c discipline that aims at a systems-level understanding of, for example, biological networks, cells, organs, organisms, and populations. it generally involves a combination of wet-lab experiments and computational (bioinformatics) approaches. systems medicine extends systems biology by focusing on the application of systems-based approaches to clinically relevant applications in order to improve patient health or the overall well-being of (healthy) individuals [ 1 ] . systems medicine is expected to change health care practice in the coming years. it will contribute to new therapeutics through the identifi cation of novel disease genes that provide drug candidates less likely to fail in clinical studies [ 2 , 3 ] . it is also expected to contribute to fundamental insights into networks perturbed by disease, improved prediction of disease progression, stratifi cation of disease subtypes, personalized treatment selection, and prevention of disease. to enable systems medicine it is necessary to characterize the patient at various levels and, consequently, to collect, integrate, and analyze various types of data including not only clinical (phenotype) and molecular data, but also information about cells (e.g., disease-related alterations in organelle morphology), organs (e.g., lung impedance when studying respiratory disorders such as asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and even social networks. the full realization of systems medicine therefore requires the integration and analysis of environmental, genetic, physiological, and molecular factors at different temporal and spatial scales, which currently is very challenging. it will require large efforts from various research communities to overcome current experimental, computational, and information management related barriers. in this chapter we show how bioinformatics is an essential part of systems medicine and discuss some of the future challenges that need to be solved. to understand the contribution of bioinformatics to systems medicine, it is helpful to consider the traditional role of bioinformatics in biomedical research, which involves basic and applied (translational) research to augment our understanding of (molecular) processes in health and disease. the term "bioinformatics" was fi rst coined by the dutch theoretical biologist paulien hogeweg in 1970 to refer to the study of information processes in biotic systems [ 4 ] . soon, the fi eld of bioinformatics expanded and bioinformatics efforts accelerated and matured as the fi rst (whole) genome and protein sequences became available. the signifi cance of bioinformatics further increased with the development of highthroughput experimental technologies that allowed wet-lab researchers to perform large-scale measurements. these include determining whole-genome sequences (and gene variants) and genome-wide gene expression with next-generation sequencing technologies (ngs; see table 1 for abbreviations and web links) [ 5 ] , measuring gene expression with dna microarrays [ 6 ] , identifying and quantifying proteins and metabolites with nmr or (lc/ gc-) ms [ 7 ] , measuring epigenetic changes such as methylation and histone modifi cations [ 8 ] , and so on. these, "omics" technologies, are capable of measuring the many molecular building blocks that determine our (patho)physiology. genome-wide measurements have not only signifi cantly advanced our fundamental understanding of the molecular biology of health and disease but table 1 abbreviations and websites have also contributed to new (commercial) diagnostic and prognostic tests [ 9 , 10 ] and the selection and development of (personalized) treatment [ 11 ] . nowadays, bioinformatics is therefore defi ned as "advancing the scientifi c understanding of living systems through computation" (iscb), or more inclusively as "conceptualizing biology in terms of molecules and applying 'informatics techniques' (derived from disciplines such as applied mathematics, computer science and statistics) to understand and organize the information associated with these molecules, on a large scale" [ 12 ] . it is worth noting that solely measuring many molecular components of a biological system does not necessarily result in a deeper understanding of such a system. understanding biological function does indeed require detailed insight into the precise function of these components but, more importantly, it requires a thorough understanding of their static, temporal, and spatial interactions. these interaction networks underlie all (patho)physiological processes, and elucidation of these networks is a major task for bioinformatics and systems medicine . the developments in experimental technologies have led to challenges that require additional expertise and new skills for biomedical researchers: • information management. modern biomedical research projects typically produce large and complex omics data sets , sometimes in the order of hundreds of gigabytes to terabytes of which a large part has become available through public databases [ 13 , 14 ] sometimes even prior to publication (e.g., gtex, icgc, tcga). this not only contributes to knowledge dissemination but also facilitates reanalysis and metaanalysis of data, evaluation of hypotheses that were not considered by the original research group, and development and evaluation of new bioinformatics methods. the use of existing data can in some cases even make new (expensive) experiments superfl uous. alternatively, one can integrate publicly available data with data generated in-house for more comprehensive analyses, or to validate results [ 15 ] . in addition, the obligation of making raw data available may prevent fraud and selective reporting. the management (transfer, storage, annotation, and integration) of data and associated meta-data is one of the main and increasing challenges in bioinformatics that needs attention to safeguard the progression of systems medicine. • data analysis and interpretation . bioinformatics data analysis and interpretation of omics data have become increasingly complex, not only due to the vast volumes and complexity of the data but also as a result of more challenging research questions. bioinformatics covers many types of analyses including nucleotide and protein sequence analysis, elucidation of tertiary protein structures, quality control, pre-processing and statistical analysis of omics data, determination of genotypephenotype relationships, biomarker identifi cation, evolutionary analysis, analysis of gene regulation, reconstruction of biological networks, text mining of literature and electronic patient records, and analysis of imaging data. in addition, bioinformatics has developed approaches to improve experimental design of omics experiments to ensure that the maximum amount of information can be extracted from the data. many of the methods developed in these areas are of direct relevance for systems medicine as exemplifi ed in this chapter. clearly, new experimental technologies have to a large extent turned biomedical research in a data-and compute-intensive endeavor. it has been argued that production of omics data has nowadays become the "easy" part of biomedical research, whereas the real challenges currently comprise information management and bioinformatics analysis. consequently, next to the wet-lab, the computer has become one of the main tools of the biomedical researcher . bioinformatics enables and advances the management and analysis of large omics-based datasets, thereby directly and indirectly contributing to systems medicine in several ways ( fig. 1 3. quality control and pre-processing of omics data. preprocessing typically involves data cleaning (e.g., removal of failed assays) and other steps to obtain quantitative measurements that can be used in downstream data analysis. 4. (statistical) data analysis methods of large and complex omicsbased datasets. this includes methods for the integrative analysis of multiple omics data types (subheading 5 ), and for the elucidation and analysis of biological networks (top-down systems medicine; subheading 6 ). systems medicine comprises top-down and bottom-up approaches. the former represents a specifi c branch of bioinformatics, which distinguishes itself from bottom-up approaches in several ways [ 3 , 19 , 20 ] . top-down approaches use omics data to obtain a holistic view of the components of a biological system and, in general, aim to construct system-wide static functional or physical interaction networks such as gene co-expression networks and protein-protein interaction networks. in contrast, bottom-up approaches aim to develop detailed mechanistic and quantitative mathematical models for sub-systems. these models describe the dynamic and nonlinear behavior of interactions between known components to understand and predict their behavior upon perturbation. however, in contrast to omics-based top-down approaches, these mechanistic models require information about chemical/physical parameters and reaction stoichiometry, which may not be available and require further (experimental) efforts. both the top-down and bottom-up approaches result in testable hypotheses and new wet-lab or in silico experiments that may lead to clinically relevant fi ndings. biomedical research and, consequently, systems medicine are increasingly confronted with the management of continuously growing volumes of molecular and clinical data, results of data analyses and in silico experiments, and mathematical models. due fig. 1 the contribution of bioinformatics ( dark grey boxes ) to systems medicine ( black box ). (omics) experiments, patients, and public repositories provide a wide range of data that is used in bioinformatics and systems medicine studies to policies of scientifi c journals and funding agencies, omics data is often made available to the research community via public databases. in addition, a wide range of databases have been developed, of which more than 1550 are currently listed in the molecular biology database collection [ 14 ] providing a rich source of biomedical information. biological repositories do not merely archive data and models but also serve a range of purposes in systems medicine as illustrated below from a few selected examples. the main repositories are hosted and maintained by the major bioinformatics institutes including ebi, ncbi, and sib that make a major part of the raw experimental omics data available through a number of primary databases including genbank [ 21 ] , geo [ 22 ] , pride [ 23 ] , and metabolights [ 24 ] for sequence, gene expression, ms-based proteomics, and ms-based metabolomics data, respectively. in addition, many secondary databases provide information derived from the processing of primary data, for example pathway databases (e.g., reactome [ 25 ] , kegg [ 26 ] ), protein sequence databases (e.g., uniprotkb [ 27 ] ), and many others. pathway databases provide an important resource to construct mathematical models used to study and further refi ne biological systems [ 28 , 29 ] . other efforts focus on establishing repositories integrating information from multiple public databases. the integration of pathway databases [ 30 -32 ] , and genome browsers that integrate genetic, omics, and other data with whole-genome sequences [ 33 , 34 ] are two examples of this. joint initiatives of the bioinformatics and systems biology communities resulted in repositories such as biomodels, which contains mathematical models of biochemical and cellular systems [ 35 ] , recon 2 that provides a communitydriven, consensus " metabolic reconstruction " of human metabolism suitable for computational modelling [ 36 ] , and seek, which provides a platform designed for the management and exchange of systems biology data and models [ 37 ] . another example of a database that may prove to be of value for systems medicine studies is malacards , an integrated and annotated compendium of about 17,000 human diseases [ 38 ] . malacards integrates 44 disease sources into disease cards and establishes gene-disease associations through integration with the well-known genecards databases [ 39 , 40 ] . integration with genecards and cross-references within malacards enables the construction of networks of related diseases revealing previously unknown interconnections among diseases, which may be used to identify drugs for off-label use. another class of repositories are (expert-curated) knowledge bases containing domain knowledge and data, which aim to provide a single point of entry for a specifi c domain. contents of these knowledge bases are often based on information extracted (either manually or by text mining) from literature or provided by domain experts [ 41 -43 ] . finally, databases are used routinely in the analysis, interpretation, and validation of experimental data. for example, the gene ontology (go) provides a controlled vocabulary of terms for describing gene products, and is often used in gene set analysis to evaluate expression patterns of groups of genes instead of those of individual genes [ 44 ] and has, for example, been applied to investigate hiv-related cognitive disorders [ 45 ] and polycystic kidney disease [ 46 ] . several repositories such as mir2disease [ 47 ] , peroxisomedb [ 41 ] , and mouse genome informatics (mgi) [ 43 ] include associations between genes and disorders, but only provide very limited phenotypic information. phenotype databases are of particular interest to systems medicine. one well-known phenotype repository is the omim database, which primarily describes single-gene (mendelian) disorders [ 48 ] . clinvar is another example and provides an archive of reports and evidence of the relationships among medically important human variations found in patient samples and phenotypes [ 49 ] . clinvar complements dbsnp (for singlenucleotide polymorphisms) [ 50 ] and dbvar (for structural variations) [ 51 ] , which both provide only minimal phenotypic information. the integration of these phenotype repositories with genetic and other molecular information will be a major aim for bioinformatics in the coming decade enabling, for example, the identifi cation of comorbidities, determination of associations between gene (mutations) and disease, and improvement of disease classifi cations [ 52 ] . it will also advance the defi nition of the "human phenome," i.e., the set of phenotypes resulting from genetic variation in the human genome. to increase the quality and (clinical) utility of the phenotype and variant databases as an essential step towards reducing the burden of human genetic disease, the human variome project coordinates efforts in standardization, system development, and (training) infrastructure for the worldwide collection and sharing of genetic variations that affect human health [ 53 , 54 ] . to implement and advance systems medicine to the benefi t of patients' health, it is crucial to integrate and analyze molecular data together with de-identifi ed individual-level clinical data complementing general phenotype descriptions. patient clinical data refers to a wide variety of data including basic patient information (e.g., age, sex, ethnicity), outcomes of physical examinations, patient history, medical diagnoses, treatments, laboratory tests, pathology reports, medical images, and other clinical outcomes. inclusion of clinical data allows the stratifi cation of patient groups into more homogeneous clinical subgroups. availability of clinical data will increase the power of downstream data analysis and modeling to elucidate molecular mechanisms, and to identify molecular biomarkers that predict disease onset or progression, or which guide treatment selection. in biomedical studies clinical information is generally used as part of patient and sample selection, but some omics studies also use clinical data as part of the bioinformatics analysis (e.g., [ 9 , 55 ] ). however, in general, clinical data is unavailable from public resources or only provided on an aggregated level. although good reasons exist for making clinical data available (subheading 2.2 ), ethical and legal issues comprising patient and commercial confi dentiality, and technical issues are the most immediate challenges [ 56 , 57 ] . this potentially hampers the development of systems medicine approaches in a clinical setting since sharing and integration of clinical and nonclinical data is considered a basic requirement [ 1 ] . biobanks [ 58 ] such as bbmri [ 59 ] provide a potential source of biological material and associated (clinical) data but these are, generally, not publicly accessible, although permission to access data may be requested from the biobank provider. clinical trials provide another source of clinical data for systems medicine studies, but these are generally owned by a research group or sponsor and not freely available [ 60 ] although ongoing discussions may change this in the future ( [ 61 ] and references therein). although clinical data is not yet available on a large scale, the bioinformatics and medical informatics communities have been very active in establishing repositories that provide clinical data. one example is the database of genotypes and phenotypes (dbgap) [ 62 ] developed by the ncbi. study metadata, summarylevel (phenotype) data, and documents related to studies are publicly available. access to de-identifi ed individual-level (clinical) data is only granted after approval by an nih data access committee. another example is the cancer genome atlas (tcga) , which also provides individual-level molecular and clinical data through its own portal and the cancer genomics hub (cghub). clinical data from tcga is available without any restrictions but part of the lower level sequencing and microarray data can only be obtained through a formal request managed by dbgap. medical patient records provide an even richer source of phenotypic information , and has already been used to stratify patient groups, discover disease relations and comorbidity, and integrate these records with molecular data to obtain a systems-level view of phenotypes (for a review see [ 63 ] ). on the one hand, this integration facilitates refi nement and analysis of the human phenome to, for example, identify diseases that are clinically uniform but have different underlying molecular mechanisms, or which share a pathogenetic mechanism but with different genetic cause [ 64 ] . on the other hand, using the same data, a phenome-wide association study ( phewas ) [ 65 ] would allow the identifi cation of unrelated phenotypes associated with specifi c shared genetic variant(s), an effect referred to as pleiotropy. moreover, it makes use of information from medical records generated in routine clinical practice and, consequently, has the potential to strengthen the link between biomedical research and clinical practice [ 66 ] . the power of phenome analysis was demonstrated in a study involving 1.5 million patient records, not including genotype information, comprising 161 disorders. in this study it was shown that disease phenotypes form a highly connected network suggesting a shared genetic basis [ 67 ] . indeed, later studies that incorporated genetic data resulted in similar fi ndings and confi rmed a shared genetic basis for a number of different phenotypes. for example, a recent study identifi ed 63 potentially pleiotropic associations through the analysis of 3144 snps that had previously been implicated by genome-wide association studies ( gwas) as mediators of human traits, and 1358 phenotypes derived from patient records of 13,835 individuals [ 68 ] . this demonstrates that phenotypic information extracted manually or through text mining from patient records can help to more precisely defi ne (relations between) diseases. another example comprises the text mining of psychiatric patient records to discover disease correlations [ 52 ] . here, mapping of disease genes from the omim database to information from medical records resulted in protein networks suspected to be involved in psychiatric diseases. integrative bioinformatics comprises the integrative (statistical) analysis of multiple omics data types. many studies demonstrated that using a single omics technology to measure a specifi c molecular level (e.g., dna variation, expression of genes and proteins, metabolite concentrations, epigenetic modifi cations) already provides a wealth of information that can be used for unraveling molecular mechanisms underlying disease. moreover, single-omics disease signatures which combine multiple (e.g., gene expression) markers have been constructed to differentiate between disease subtypes to support diagnosis and prognosis. however, no single technology can reveal the full complexity and details of molecular networks observed in health and disease due to the many interactions across these levels. a systems medicine strategy should ideally aim to understand the functioning of the different levels as a whole by integrating different types of omics data. this is expected to lead to biomarkers with higher predictive value, and novel disease insights that may help to prevent disease and to develop new therapeutic approaches. integrative bioinformatics can also facilitate the prioritization and characterization of genetic variants associated with complex human diseases and traits identifi ed by gwas in which hundreds of thousands to over a million snps are assayed in a large number of individuals. although such studies lack the statistical power to identify all disease-associated loci [ 69 ] , they have been instrumental in identifying loci for many common diseases. however, it remains diffi cult to prioritize the identifi ed variants and to elucidate their effect on downstream pathways ultimately leading to disease [ 70 ] . consequently, methods have been developed to prioritize candidate snps based on integration with other (omics) data such as gene expression, dnase hypersensitive sites, histone modifi cations, and transcription factor-binding sites [ 71 ] . the integration of multiple omics data types is far from trivial and various approaches have been proposed [ 72 -74 ] . one approach is to link different types of omics measurements through common database identifi ers. although this may seem straightforward, in practice this is complicated as a result of technical and standardization issues as well as a lack of biological consensus [ 32 , 75 -77 ] . moreover, the integration of data at the level of the central dogma of molecular biology and, for example, metabolite data is even more challenging due to the indirect relationships between genes, transcripts, and proteins on the one hand and metabolites on the other hand, precluding direct links between the database identifi ers of these molecules. statistical data integration [ 72 ] is a second commonly applied strategy, and various approaches have been applied for the joint analysis of multiple data types (e.g., [ 78 , 79 ] ). one example of statistical data integration is provided by a tcga study that measured various types of omics data to characterize breast cancer [ 80 ] . in this study 466 breast cancer samples were subjected to whole-genome and -exome sequencing, and snp arrays to obtain information about somatic mutations, copy number variations, and chromosomal rearrangements. microarrays and rna-seq were used to determine mrna and microrna expression levels, respectively. reverse-phase protein arrays (rppa) and dna methylation arrays were used to obtain data on protein expression levels and dna methylation, respectively. simultaneous statistical analysis of different data types via a "cluster-of-clusters" approach using consensus clustering on a multi-omics data matrix revealed that four major breast cancer subtypes could be identifi ed. this showed that the intrinsic subtypes (basal, luminal a and b, her2) that had previously been determined using gene expression data only could be largely confi rmed in an integrated analysis of a large number of breast tumors. single-level omics data has extensively been used to identify disease-associated biomarkers such as genes, proteins, and metabolites. in fact, these studies led to more than 150,000 papers documenting thousands of claimed biomarkers, however, it is estimated that fewer than 100 of these are currently used for routine clinical practice [ 81 ] . integration of multiple omics data types is expected to result in more robust and predictive disease profi les since these better refl ect disease biology [ 82 ] . further improvement of these profi les may be obtained through the explicit incorporation of interrelationships between various types of measurements such as microrna-mrna target, or gene methylation-microrna (based on a common target gene). this was demonstrated for the prediction of short-term and long-term survival from serous cystadenocarcinoma tcga data [ 83 ] . according to the recent casym roadmap : "human disease can be perceived as perturbations of complex, integrated genetic, molecular and cellular networks and such complexity necessitates a new approach." [ 84 ] . in this section we discuss how (approximations) to these networks can be constructed from omics data and how these networks can be decomposed in smaller modules. then we discuss how the resulting modules can be used to generate experimentally testable hypotheses, provide insight into disease mechanisms, lead to predictive diagnostic and prognostic models, and help to further subclassify diseases [ 55 , 85 ] (fig. 2 ) network-based approaches will provide medical doctors with molecular level support to make personalized treatment decisions. in a top-down approach the aim of network reconstruction is to infer the connections between the molecules that constitute a biological network. network models can be created using a variety of mathematical and statistical techniques and data types. early approaches for network inference (also called reverse engineering ) used only gene expression data to reconstruct gene networks. here, we discern three types of gene network inference algorithms using methods based on (1) correlation-based approaches, (2) information-theoretic approaches, and (3) bayesian networks [ 86 ] . co-expression networks are an extension of commonly used clustering techniques , in which genes are connected by edges in a network if the amount of correlation of their gene expression profi les exceeds a certain value. co-expression networks have been shown to connect functionally related genes [ 87 ] . note that connections in a co-expression network correspond to either direct (e.g., transcription factor-gene and protein-protein) or indirect (e.g., proteins participating in the same pathway) interactions. in one of the earliest examples of this approach, pair-wise correlations were calculated between gene expression profi les and the level of growth inhibition caused by thousands of tested anticancer agents, for 60 cancer cell lines [ 88 ] . removal of associations weaker than a certain threshold value resulted in networks consisting of highly correlated genes and agents, called relevance networks, which led to targeted hypotheses for potential single-gene determinants of chemotherapeutic susceptibility. information-theoretic approaches have been proposed in order to capture nonlinear dependencies assumed to be present in most biological systems and that cannot be captured by correlation-based distance measures . these approaches often use the concept of mutual information, a generalization of the correlation coeffi cient which quantifi es the degree of statistical (in)dependence. an example of a network inference method that is based on mutual information is aracne, which has been used to reconstruct the human b-cell gene network from a large compendium of human b-cell gene expression profi les [ 89 ] . in order to discover regulatory interactions, aracne removes the majority of putative indirect interactions from the initial mutual information-based gene network using a theorem from information theory, the data processing inequality. this led to the identifi cation of myc as a major hub in the b-cell gene network and a number of novel myc target genes, which were experimentally validated. whether informationtheoretic approaches are more powerful in general than correlationbased approaches is still subject of debate [ 90 ] . bayesian networks allow the description of statistical dependencies between variables in a generic way [ 91 , 92 ] . bayesian networks are directed acyclic networks in which the edges of the network represent conditional dependencies; that is, nodes that are not connected represent variables that are conditionally independent of each other. a major bottleneck in the reconstruction of bayesian networks is their computational complexity. moreover, bayesian networks are acyclic and cannot capture feedback loops that characterize many biological networks. when time-series rather than steady-state data is available, dynamic bayesian networks provide a richer framework in which cyclic networks can be reconstructed [ 93 ] . gene (co-)expression data only offers a partial view on the full complexity of cellular networks. consequently, networks have also been constructed from other types of high-throughput data. for example, physical protein-protein interactions have been measured on a large scale in different organisms including human, using affi nity capture-mass spectrometry or yeast two-hybrid screens, and have been made available in public databases such as biogrid [ 94 ] . regulatory interactions have been probed using chromatin immunoprecipitation sequencing (chip-seq) experiments, for example by the encode consortium [ 95 ] . using probabilistic techniques , heterogeneous types of experimental evidence and prior knowledge have been integrated to construct functional association networks for human [ 96 ] , mouse [ 97 ] , and, most comprehensively, more than 1100 organisms in the string database [ 98 ] . functional association networks can help predict novel pathway components, generate hypotheses for biological functions for a protein of interest, or identify disease-related genes [ 97 ] . prior knowledge required for these approaches is, for example, available in curated biological pathway databases, and via protein associations predicted using text mining based on their cooccurrence in abstracts or even full-text articles. many more integrative network inference methods have been proposed; for a review see [ 99 ] . the integration of gene expression data with chip data [ 100 ] or transcription factor-binding motif data [ 101 ] has shown to be particularly fruitful for inferring transcriptional regulatory networks. recently, li et al. [ 102 ] described the results from a regression-based model that predicts gene expression using encode (chip-seq) and tcga data (mrna expression data complemented with copy number variation, dna methylation, and microrna expression data). this model infers the regulatory activities of expression regulators and their target genes in acute myeloid leukemia samples. eighteen key regulators were identifi ed, whose activities clustered consistently with cytogenetic risk groups. bayesian networks have also been used to integrate multiomics data. the combination of genotypic and gene expression data is particularly powerful, since dna variations represent naturally occurring perturbations that affect gene expression detected as expression quantitative trait loci ( eqtl ). cis -acting eqtls can then be used as constraints in the construction of directed bayesian networks to infer causal relationships between nodes in the network [ 103 ] . large multi-omics datasets consisting of hundreds or sometimes even thousands of samples are available for many commonly occurring human diseases, such as most tumor types (tcga), alzheimer's disease [ 104 ] , and obesity [ 105 ] . however, a major bottleneck for the construction of accurate gene networks is that the number of gene networks that are compatible with the experimental data is several orders of magnitude larger still. in other words, top-down network inference is an underdetermined problem with many possible solutions that explain the data equally well and individual gene-gene interactions are characterized by a high false-positive rate [ 99 ] . most network inference methods therefore try to constrain the number of possible solutions by making certain assumptions about the structure of the network. perhaps the most commonly used strategy to harness the complexity of the gene network inference problem is to analyze experimental data in terms of biological modules, that is, sets of genes that have strong interactions and a common function [ 106 ] . there is considerable evidence that many biological networks are modular [ 107 ] . module-based approaches effectively constrain the number of parameters to estimate and are in general also more robust to the noise that characterizes high-throughput omics measurements. a detailed review of module-based techniques is outside the scope of this chapter (see, for example [ 108 ] ), but we would like to mention a few examples of successful and commonly used modular approaches. weighted gene co-expression network analysis ( wgcna) decomposes a co-expression network into modules using clustering techniques [ 109 ] . modules can be summarized by their module eigengene, a weighted average expression profi le of all gene member of a given module. eigengenes can then be correlated with external sample traits to identify modules that are related with these traits. parikshak et al. [ 110 ] used wgcna to extract modules from a co-expression network constructed using fetal and early postnatal brain development expression data. next, they established that several of these modules were enriched for genes and rare de novo variants implicated in autism spectrum disorder (asd). moreover, the asd-associated modules are also linked at the transcriptional level and 17 transcription factors were found acting as putative co-regulators of asd-associated gene modules during neocortical development. wgcna can also be used when multiple omics data types are available. one example of such an approach involved the integration of transcriptomic and proteomic data from a study investigating the response to sars-cov infection in mice [ 111 ] . in this study wgcna-based gene and protein co-expression modules were constructed and integrated to obtain module-based disease signatures. interestingly, the authors found several cases of identifi er-matched transcripts and proteins that correlated well with the phenotype, but which showed poor or anticorrelation across these two data types. moreover, the highest correlating transcripts and peptides were not the most central ones in the co-expression modules. vice versa , the transcripts and proteins that defi ned the modules were not those with the highest correlation to the phenotype. at the very least this shows that integration of omics data affects the nature of the disease signatures. identifi cation of active modules is another important integrative modular technique . here, experimental data in the form of molecular profi les is projected onto a biological network, for example a protein-protein interaction network. active modules are those subnetworks that show the largest change in expression for a subset of conditions and are likely to contain key drivers or regulators of those processes perturbed in the experiment. active modules have, for example, been used to fi nd a subnetwork that is overexpressed in a particularly aggressive lymphoma subtype [ 112 ] and to detect signifi cantly mutated pathways [ 113 ] . some active module approaches integrate various types of omics data. one example of such an approach is paradigm [ 114 ] , which translates pathways into factor graphs, a class of models that belongs to the same family of models as bayesian networks, and determines sample-specifi c pathway activity from multiple functional genomic datasets. paradigm has been used in several tcga projects, for example, in the integrated analysis of 131 urothelial bladder carcinomas [ 55 ] . paradigm-based analysis of copy number variations and rna-seq gene expression in combination with a propagation-based network analysis algorithm revealed novel associations between mutations and gene expression levels, which subsequently resulted in the identifi cation of pathways altered in bladder cancer. the identifi cation of activating or inhibiting gene mutations in these pathways suggested new targets for treatment. moreover, this effort clearly showed the benefi ts of screening patients for the presence of specifi c mutations to enable personalized treatment strategies. often, published disease signatures cannot be replicated [ 81 ] or provide hardly additional biological insight. also here (modular) network-based approaches have been proposed to alleviate these problems. a common characteristic of most methods is that the molecular activity of a set of genes is summarized on a per sample basis. summarized gene set scores are then used as features in prognostic and predictive models. relevant gene sets can be based on prior knowledge and correspond to canonical pathways, gene ontology categories, or sets of genes sharing common motifs in their promoter regions [ 115 ] . gene set scores can also be determined by projecting molecular data onto a biological network and summarizing scores at the level of subnetworks for each individual sample [ 116 ] . while promising in principle, it is still subject of debate whether gene set-based models outperform gene-based one s [ 117 ] . the comparative analysis of networks across different species is another commonly used approach to constrain the solution space. patterns conserved across species have been shown to be more likely to be true functional interactions [ 107 ] and to harbor useful candidates for human disease genes [ 118 ] . many network alignment methods have been developed in the past decade to identify commonalities between networks. these methods in general combine sequence-based and topological constraints to determine the optimal alignment of two (or more) biological networks. network alignment has, for example, been applied to detect conserved patterns of protein interaction in multiple species [ 107 , 119 ] and to analyze the evolution of co-expression networks between humans and mice [ 120 , 121 ] . network alignment can also be applied to detect diverged patterns [ 120 ] and may thus lead to a better understanding of similarities and differences between animal models and human in health and disease. information from model organisms has also been fruitfully used to identify more robust disease signatures [ 122 -125 ] . sweet-cordero and co-workers [ 122 ] used a gene signature identifi ed in a mouse model of lung adenocarcinoma to uncover an orthologous signature in human lung adenocarcinoma that was not otherwise apparent. bild et al. [ 123 ] defi ned gene expression signatures characterizing several oncogenic pathways of human mammary epithelial cells. they showed that these signatures predicted pathway activity in mouse and human tumors. predictions of pathway activity correlated well with the sensitivity to drugs targeting those pathways and could thus serve as a guide to targeted therapies. a generic approach, pathprint, for the integration of gene expression data across different platforms and species at the level of pathways, networks, and transcriptionally regulated targets was recently described [ 126 ] . the authors used their method to identify four stem cell-related pathways conserved between human and mouse in acute myeloid leukemia, with good prognostic value in four independent clinical studies. we reviewed a wide array of different approaches showing how networks can be used to elucidate integrated genetic, molecular, and cellular networks. however, in general no single approach will be suffi cient and combining different approaches in more complex analysis pipelines will be required. this is fi ttingly illustrated by the diggit (driver-gene inference by genetical-genomics and information theory) algorithm [ 127 ] . in brief, diggit identities candidate master regulators from an aracne gene co-expression network integrated with copy number variations that affect gene expression. this method combines several previously developed computational approaches and was used to identify causal genetic drivers of human disease in general and glioblastoma, breast cancer, and alzheimer's disease in particular. this enabled identifi cation of klhl9 deletions as upstream activators of two previously established master regulators in a specifi c subtype of glioblastoma. systems medicine is one of the steps necessary to make improvements in the prevention and treatment of disease through systems approaches that will (a) elucidate (patho)physiologic mechanisms in much greater detail than currently possible, (b) produce more robust and predictive disease signatures, and (c) enable personalized treatment. in this context, we have shown that bioinformatics has a major role to play. bioinformatics will continue its role in the development, curation, integration, and maintenance of (public) biological and clinical databases to support biomedical research and systems medicine. the bioinformatics community will strengthen its activities in various standardization and curation efforts that already resulted in minimum reporting guidelines [ 128 ] , data capture approaches [ 75 ] , data exchange formats [ 129 ] , and terminology standards for annotation [ 130 ] . one challenge for the future is to remove errors and inconsistencies in data and annotation from databases and prevent new ones from being introduced [ 32 , 76 , 131 -135 ]. an equally important challenge is to establish, improve, and integrate resources containing phenotype and clinical information. to achieve this objective it seems reasonable that bioinformatics and health informatics professionals team up [ 136 -138 ] . traditionally health informatics professionals have focused on hospital information systems (e.g., patient records, pathology reports, medical images) and data exchange standards (e.g., hl7), medical terminology standards (e.g., international classifi cation of disease (icd), snomed), medical image analysis, analysis of clinical data, clinical decision support systems, and so on. while, on the other hand, bioinformatics mainly focused on molecular data, it shares many approaches and methods with health informatics. integration of these disciplines is therefore expected to benefi t systems medicine in various ways [ 139 ] . integrative bioinformatics approaches clearly have added value for systems medicine as they provide a better understanding of biological systems, result in more robust disease markers, and prevent (biological) bias that would possibly occur from using single-omics measurements. however, such studies, and the scientifi c community in general, would benefi t from improved strategies to disseminate and share data which typically will be produced at multiple research centers (e.g., https://www.synapse.org ; [ 140 ] ). integrative studies are expected to increasingly facilitate personalized medicine approaches such as demonstrated by chen and coworkers [ 141 ] . in their study they presented a 14-month "integrative personal omics profi le" (ipop) for a single individual comprising genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic, metabolomic, and autoantibody data. from the whole-genome sequence data an elevated risk for type 2 diabetes (t2d) was detected, and subsequent monitoring of hba1c and glucose levels revealed the onset of t2d, despite the fact that the individual lacked many of the known non-genetic risk factors. subsequent treatment resulted in a gradual return to the normal phenotype. this shows that the genome sequence can be used to determine disease risk in a healthy individual and allows selecting and monitoring specifi c markers that provide information about the actual disease status. network-based approaches will increasingly be used to determine the genetic causes of human diseases. since the effect of a genetic variation is often tissue or cell-type specifi c, a large effort is needed in constructing cell-type-specifi c networks both in health and disease. this can be done using data already available, an approach taken by guan et al. [ 142 ] . the authors proposed 107 tissue-specifi c networks in mouse via their generic approach for constructing functional association networks using lowthroughput, highly reliable tissue-specifi c gene expression information as a constraint. one could also generate new datasets to facilitate the construction of tissue-specifi c networks. examples of such approaches are tcga and the genotype-tissue expression (gtex) project. the aim of gtex is to create a data resource for the systematic study of genetic variation and its effect on gene expression in more than 40 human tissues [ 143 ] . regardless of the way how networks are constructed, it will become more and more important to offer a centralized repository where networks from different cell types and diseases can be stored and accessed. nowadays, these networks are diffi cult to retrieve and are scattered in supplementary fi les with the original papers, links to accompanying web pages, or even not available at all. a resource similar to what the systems biology community has created with the biomodels database would be a great leap forward. there have been some initial attempts in building databases of network models, for example the cellcircuits database [ 123 ] ( http://www.cellcircuits.org ) and the causal biological networks (cbn) database of networks related to lung disease [ 144 ] ( http://causalbionet.com ). however, these are only small-scale initiatives and a much larger and coordinated effort is required. another main bottleneck for the successful application of network inference methods is their validation. most network inference methods to date have been applied to one or a few isolated datasets and were validated using some limited follow-up experiments, for example via gene knockdowns, using prior knowledge from databases and literature as a gold standard, or by generating simulated data from a mathematical model of the underlying network [ 145 , 146 ] . however, strengths and weaknesses of network inference methods across cell types, diseases, and species have hardly been assessed. notable exceptions are collaborative competitions such as the dialogue on reverse engineering assessment and methods (dream) [ 147 ] and industrial methodology for process verifi cation (improver) [ 146 ] . these centralized initiatives propose challenges in which individual research groups can participate and to which they can submit their predictions, which can then be independently validated by the challenge organizers. several dream challenges in the area of network inference have been organized, leading to a better insight into the strengths and weaknesses of individual methods [ 148 ] . another important contribution of dream is that a crowd-based approach integrating predictions from multiple network inference methods was shown to give good and robust performance across diverse data sets [ 149 ] . also in the area of systems medicine challenge-based competitions may offer a framework 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enabling transparent and collaborative computational analysis of 12 tumor types within the cancer genome atlas personal omics profi ling reveals dynamic molecular and medical phenotypes tissue-specifi c functional networks for prioritizing phenotype and disease genes the genotype-tissue expression (gtex) project on crowd-verifi cation of biological networks inference and validation of predictive gene networks from biomedical literature and gene expression data verifi cation of systems biology research in the age of collaborative competition dialogue on reverse-engineering assessment and methods: the dream of highthroughput pathway inference revealing strengths and weaknesses of methods for gene network inference wisdom of crowds for robust gene network inference we would like to thank dr. aldo jongejan for his comments that improved the text. key: cord-005078-gr2vioor authors: fedorowicz, jane; gogan, janis l. title: reinvention of interorganizational systems: a case analysis of the diffusion of a bio-terror surveillance system date: 2009-04-03 journal: inf syst front doi: 10.1007/s10796-009-9167-y sha: doc_id: 5078 cord_uid: gr2vioor innovation diffusion theory proposed that adopters—whether individuals or organizations—sometimes reinvent an innovation as they gain experience using it. reinvention can enhance (or impede) the likelihood of an is innovation’s acceptance and further diffusion. this paper reports on a case study of biosense, an interorganizational system that was designed as an early detection tool for bio-terror attacks and subsequently modified to better serve this need as well as to operate as a public health system for pinpointing geographic clusters of dangerous/acute disease outbreaks. by examining the interplay among the political and organizational dynamics and technical properties of the biosense system, we shed light on processes affecting reinvention in an interorganizational context. we discuss our findings in light of theories of the diffusion and reinvention of innovations. we use rogers’ (1995) list of factors supporting reinvention to structure the discussion of the fidelity and uniformity of the innovation within the processes it supports in adopting health services organizations. institutionalization of an innovation is dependent not only on its fit with a variety of user requirements or circumstances, but also on user receptivity toward its implementation processes (goodman et al. 1993; yetton et al. 1999) . "reinvention" refers to the changes or modifications made to an innovation following its adoption and the processes by which the innovation is changed by its adopters (rogers 1995) . complex, process-based innovations that are flexible enough to be reinvented to fit the needs of an adopting organization are more likely to be successfully assimilated into organizational routines. innovative information systems (is) may simplify information processing or analysis tasks, as when an organization adopts a new enterprise system, or the innovative information system may provide access to new data, combinations of data, or new analytical tools, as would be the case when supply chain partners introduce an interorganizational system to share data between buyers and suppliers. the new information system may not necessarily utilize new technologies, but is considered an innovation because it enables changes to extant processes and workflows. since both expected and unexpected changes can take place, care must be taken to align the is innovation with critical organizational tasks, as well as to nurture its adoption and implementation processes (yetton et al. 1999) . the more flexibility inherent in an is-based innovation, the more likely its reinvention will lead to (planned or unplanned) sustainable improvements in organizational work. however, innovation change agents must also ensure that unmonitored or uncontained flexibility does not result in unnecessary organizational churn or user confusion. when the success of the innovation requires buy-in from many organizations as is true with an interorganizational system, the innovation must be malleable enough to fit the requirements, preferences and processes of each partnering organization while preserving the purpose of the collective entity. striking a balance between the ability to customize systems to individuals' or departments' needs (a key benefit of is flexibility) and information-sharing transparency (a key benefit of uniformity) is an ongoing challenge for many organizations. this paper reports on a case study of a public health interorganizational system which was initially designed and promoted as an early detection tool for bio-terror attacks and subsequently was modified to serve a broader and more routine public health purpose: identifying geographic clusters of communicable disease outbreaks. by examining the interplay among emergent political and organizational dynamics and technical properties of the biosense system, we shed some light on the decisions and processes that led to the reinvention of this interorganizational innovation. the paper is organized as follows. first we review prior studies of innovation, with a focus on key findings about reinvention and related processes affecting or resulting from interorganizational system innovations. we explain the methodology employed for the case study, and then describe the biosense initiative, including the context for, design and development of, adoption and early experience with this interorganizational system and reinvention events that took place in the mid-to-late 2000s. we discuss our findings in light of the reviewed literature and offer suggestions for further research on reinvention of interorganizational systems. 2 literature review innovation diffusion theory proposed that adopterswhether individuals or organizations-sometimes adapt or "reinvent" an innovation as they gain experience using it (rogers 1995 ; see also rice and rogers 1980) . herein, we prefer rogers' term "reinvention" to refer to these innovation changes, to distinguish our work from prior is research where the term "adaptation" describes how organizational processes and procedures are changed to accommodate the innovation, without actual changes to the it artifact itself (see for example cooper and zmud 1990) . reinvention usually enhances the likelihood of an innovation's acceptance and further diffusion. reinvention may affect an individual user (as when an individual customizes software developed by someone else to suit his/her specific requirements) or an organization (as when a new scheduling system is introduced to reduce patient waiting time in a medical facility, then modified to better suit the needs of the adopting organization and/or its users). rogers (1995) proposed that reinvention can be spurred by a variety of factors, including: although rogers called for further research on reinvention especially from an organizational perspective (versus user-adopted technologies, which have been extensively studied), few researchers have focused on reinvention. hays (1996) studied how state policies enacted as laws were reinvented as they were diffused into subsequent states, finding that policies were reinvented based on a combination of social learning, political characteristics, and contextual factors. lewis and seibold (1993) consider two components of innovation reinvention, distinguishing between fidelity (how well the reinvention matches the original intent of the design or intended use) and uniformity (referring to the degree of similarity of use across users). they illustrate their framework in a single organization by studying characteristics of adopting individuals. when considering an innovation that is intended to be adopted by a large number of potentially dissimilar organizations, studying both aspects of fidelity and uniformity at the organizational level is likely to increase understanding of the importance and complexity of reinvention in a largescale diffusion (informal) or dissemination (formal) effort. many studies have examined individuals' and businesses' decisions to adopt or not to adopt various is innovations (e.g., chen et al. 2004; plouffe et al. 2001; tan and teo 2000) as well as potential adopters' propensity to innovate (e.g., agarwal and prasad 1998) and their post-adoption attitudes and behavior (e.g., karahanna et al. 1999; parthasarathy and bhattacherjee 1998) . yetton et al. (1999) are careful to distinguish between innovation characteristics that are more likely to impact individual task performance, and implementation processes that are apt to affect group task performance. however, few studies (e.g., tyre and orlikowski 1994) focus on information systems reinvention. one paper, which examined several case studies of the adoption and use of efficient consumer response (ecr) technologies, hinted at reinvention in its conclusion that "each organization will enter into a complex series of interactions with other parties in its industry group … [during which] organizations' knowledge and perceptions of ecr will change, their capabilities will change, and their interactions with industry partners will change." (kurnia and johnston 2000, p. 315) . this study also emphasized the importance of understanding the processes related to interorganizational innovations, and the emergent nature of the system evolution. other studies also suggest that is innovations, as compared with other innovations, are especially susceptible to reinvention. drawing on earlier work on "intellectual technologies" (curley and pyburn 1982 ; see also wildemuth 1999) , lee (1999) notes that, unlike traditional industrial technologieswhich, due to physical limitations, only support a narrow range of functionsinformation technologies are inherently flexible and their uses are constrained primarily by the skills and imagination of designers and users. this flexibility is a central property of is, and lee calls for further research on the implications of this flexibility. if flexibility/adaptability is a central property of is, then reinvention should be a central concern of research in the diffusion-of-innovations stream. however, as noted earlier, most studies in this stream of is research focus on individual users' decisions to adopt new technologies. fewer studies closely examine reinvention processes or outcomes, either in intra-organizational or interorganizational contexts. one review of the extensive diffusion-ofinnovations literature (chin and marcolin 2001) concludes that while much attention has been given to factors affecting potential adopters' attitudes and intentions, further study is needed on "the technological context and interactions such as interface design, data structures, training, and actual usage behavior..." (p. 9, emphasis added). studying the adoption and use of interorganizational systems by collaborating organizations will give researchers insights into the complex world in which both the characteristics of the technology-based innovation and its implementation process combine to determine the role of reinvention in its long term sustainability. although in many ways health care works under a "business" model, its social mission and public nature lead to many different organizational characteristics that are more complex than would be found in a corporate environment. for example, health care professionals must contend with extensive external vigilance (e.g., laws, regulations and government oversight) and unique funding structures (a mix of internal and external sources, the latter usually limited to specific capital projects and loaded with financial and operational restrictions). in addition, unlike the corporate or government sectors, multiple hierarchies exist in the social networks of the medical professions (west et al. 1999; dopson et al. 2002) . doctors have flatter, more informal networks than nurses' hierarchical ones. as a result, doctors are more likely to be effective at influencing peers to adopt or reinvent innovations. these social networks are a dominant means for diffusion of innovation in health care. with their complex organizational structures, tangled regulatory oversight and irregular opportunistic funding for innovations, the health services arena provides a rich and complex background in which to study innovation reinvention and diffusion. an extensive literature exists on the diffusion of innovation in health services delivery (e.g., berwick 2003) . two recent reviews (greenhalgh et al. 2004; fleuren et al. 2004) examined hundreds of published articles; each review proposed a model for enhancing the success of health related innovations and improving the quality of publications in this area. the greenhalgh et al. article concludes with an extensive list of research questions, two of which are particularly relevant to the study related in this paper. they are: "how do innovations in health service organizations arise, and in what circumstances? what mix of factors tends to produce 'adoptable' innovations (e.g. ones that have clear advantages beyond their source organization and low implementation complexity and are readily adaptable to new contexts)?" "how are innovations arising as 'good ideas' in local healthcare systems reinvented as they are transmitted through individual and organizational networks, and how can this process be supported or enhanced?" (p. 617) this paper addresses these questions by reporting on a case study of an innovative interorganizational system (biosense) and its subsequent reinvention by its users. we use rogers' list of factors supporting reinvention to structure the discussion of the fidelity and uniformity of the innovation within the processes it supports in adopting organizations. the biosense case study was part of a larger study of interagency information sharing in egovernment (fedorowicz et al. 2006 & review of other documents available from public sources (journal articles, news accounts, conference presentations). & interviews with three key informants in [2005] [2006] : a statistician at the cdc who played a significant role in designing the biosense system, and two physicians with public health and statistics training who worked in clinical informatics at two participating hospitals who were key players in the diffusion of biosense. a semi-structured interview protocol was utilized, based on a framework that guided all case studies in the larger project. (see appendix.) in interviews lasting one to two hours each, informants were asked to describe their role in biosense and other public health informatics and/or surveillance initiatives and to discuss political, administrative and technical challenges, as well as their thoughts on directions for future interorganizational systems in this domain. the interviews were recorded and professionally transcribed. the authors compared the interview data with the publicly-available sources (from the cdc website, congressional testimony, and other sources) to triangulate on a timeline of events and key facts about biosense and related initiatives. beyond establishing the facts of the biosense case, our analysis of the data utilized an inductive, grounded theory approach. using the constant-comparative method of analysis (see strauss and corbin 1998 ) the authors reviewed the data for themes and sub-themes. analysis started with identification of informants' views regarding political, administrative, and technical aspects, as set forth in our interview guide (appendix). then, consistent with grounded theory, the authors utilized open coding to identify portions of the interview and other data that did not readily fall into the pre-defined categories, along with puzzles and apparent contradictions in the accounts of events and perspectives. two of the initial informants were re-contacted-one via email and the other via several telephone conversationsfor clarification of some of these open issues; they were encouraged to add further comments. a case history was then prepared, which was reviewed by two of our informants. minor changes were then made based on their clarification of events and perspectives. in public health, "surveillance" is the systematic gathering of data about disease outbreaks, so that priorities can be set for dispensing vaccines and medicines, instituting quarantines or taking other measures to contain an outbreak and conduct follow-up work. surveillance is not new; the united states began monitoring cholera, smallpox, plague and yellow fever in 1878. in 1928 all states were required to report on 29 "notifiable" diseases, and in 1961 cdc was given responsibility for aggregating and publishing the states' surveillance data. unfortunately, many diseases are tracked via separate data collection processes and systems, leading to a proliferation of incompatible applications and databases (potts and fraser 2000, p. 5) . realizing that these incompatibilities place constraints on the ability of states to collaborate during widespread outbreaks, many public health experts have called recently for greater coordination in traditional public health surveillance activities. in 1996 the cdc formed a health information and surveillance systems board to coordinate public health surveillance efforts, with broad representation from state and regional public health agencies. in 1999 development of the specifications for a national internet-based health alert network began, and planning soon followed for development of a national electronic disease surveillance system (nedss). cdc announced in 2000: "nedss will electronically integrate and link together a wide variety of surveillance activities and facilitate more accurate and timely reporting of disease information to cdc and state and local health departments. … nedss will include data standards, an internet based communications infrastructure built on industry standards, and policy-level agreements on data access, sharing, burden reduction, and protection of confidentiality." (potts and fraser 2000, p. 7) traditional public health disease surveillance, while vital, operates at a slow pace based on verified outbreaks of notifiable diseases. it is not very effective in responding quickly and effectively to outbreaks of rapid-onset, highly contagious diseases. for example, in 1993 a waterborne parasitic infection in milwaukee sickened 400,000 and killed 100 people (foldy 2004) . this traumatic event sparked several local early detection initiatives in that region, but over the next decade little progress was made on a nationwide basis. according to centers for disease control and prevention director dr. julie gerberding, traditional surveillance procedures, which aim to confirm that a particular disease is involved, emphasize data accuracy and completeness at the expense of timeliness. dr. gerberding stated that during the post-9/11 anthrax attacks in fall of 2001 "the style of not wanting to make a decision until you have all the data gathered and you have the nice tied-up package was a deterrent to effective decision making on a day-to-day basis" (as quoted in altman 2002 ; see also henning 2004; stolberg and miller 2001) . criticism of cdc's problematic response to the 2001 anthrax attacks helped to direct lawmakers' attention to the need for a new kind of surveillance system that would focus on potential bio-terror attacks. in contrast to traditional surveillance which uses data about confirmed diagnoses, near real-time syndromic surveillance aims to "identify illness clusters early, before diagnoses are confirmed and reported to public health agencies, and to mobilize a rapid response…" (henning 2004, p. 7) . as compared with disease surveillance, syndromic surveillance analyzes the symptoms that patients are experiencing (versus confirmed diagnoses, which of necessity come later). with this context in place, we now introduce biosense, followed by a discussion of its reinvention led by its early adopters and proponents. . in the same year, harvard medical school physicians in the health care informatics program at children's hospital medical center in boston began developing a pre-diagnostic syndromic surveillance system. both initiatives involved capturing patient chief complaints data. dr. kenneth mandl recalled that interest in bio-terror surveillance was already rising before september 11, 2001 and accelerated rapidly after the attacks: "i started the bio-surveillance program here in 1999 after discussions with darpa and the hopkins applied physics lab. it was a very early concept at the time. the clinton administration was interested in … protecting the public against bio-terrorist threats [by] … the use of medical and "nontraditional" data sources for purposes of surveillance. [based on a proposal prepared in 1999] we received funding from the agency for health care research and quality in 2000 for a bio-preparedness contract. the work we were doing became very, very popular in 2001. [even before the 9/11 attacks], early in 2001 the federal commitment to bio-surveillance went from $50 million a year to more like $300 million a year. after the attacks in 2001, things really heated up. since we were already on the ground and running, we expanded quite rapidly and i developed a contract with the massachusetts dept of public health to run the massachusetts surveillance system (mss)." thus, before september 11, 2001, work was already underway (in boston and pittsburgh) to develop regional syndromic surveillance systems for rapid detection. at the national level, efforts were initially focused on developing standards and common systems for traditional disease surveillance, but after the 9/11 anthrax attacks the cdc sponsored work on real-time pre-diagnostic syndromic surveillance at the national level, with the biosense system. the biosense project was proposed in 2002 and formally funded in spring 2003, shortly after the beginning of the war in iraq. two other national bio-terrorism initiatives were also funded: biowatch, a network of sensors which capture air samples in key cities to detect known bio-terror agents; and bioshield, which aims to rapidly develop, move and store vaccines and therapeutics such as antibiotics as soon as an outbreak is identified. figure 1 illustrates the relationship of biosense with other u.s. public health activities and systems. nedss is responsible for routine disease surveillance (primarily the traditional but consolidated notifiable disease program, which emphasizes reporting of confirmed disease outbreaks), while bio-sense is for syndromic surveillance, i.e., less precise early detection, based on chief complaints, laboratory orders and other data that help identify symptom clusters (henderson 2003) . table 1 (above) summarizes the evolution of disease surveillance and related work that led to the launching of biosense. with this background on the mission and motivation for developing biosense, we turn now to an examination of how the system and its users adapted to meet a wider spectrum of individual and societal needs. as initially envisioned the focus of the cdc biosense initiative was on developing an early detection tool for bio-terror attacks. the idea was to quickly identify clusters of patients with symptoms related to known biological agents in eleven syndrome groups (fever, respiratory, gastrointestinal, lymphadenitis, specific infection, localized cutaneous lesion, rash, neurologic, botulism-like illness, hemorrhagic illness and severe illness or death; see ma et al. 2004) . biosense was designed to identify a medium to large scale bio-terrorism outbreak rather than a small-scale/ narrow scope attack (such as the anthrax-by-mail attacks that occurred in the aftermath of 9/11) which would likely be picked up by alert clinicians. according to one source, "the principal underlying premise … is that the first signs of a covert biological warfare attack will be clusters of victims who change their behavior because they begin to become symptomatic." . from participating hospitals and clinics, biosense would capture prediagnostic data such as chief complaints (a "chief complaint" is the primary symptom that a patient describes upon arrival at an emergency room or clinic) and laboratory orders (which reveal what evidence the doctor is looking for, as compared with lab test results, which help to confirm the doctor's hunch). chief complaint and lab order data were already being captured and stored in electronic form at many hospitals and clinics. the biosense interorganizational system included tools to aggregate data from multiple locations and to perform statistical analyses that would help to identify abnormal clusters of chief-complaints symptoms, lab orders, and other indicators of bio-terror attacks (loonsk 2004; loonsk et al. 2004; ma et al. 2004; mandl, et al. 2004) . data would be captured in near-real time, aggregated daily, and analyzed once a week unless an unfolding situation warranted a quicker analysis. biosense participants included department of defense (dod) hospital emergency rooms and clinics, veterans affairs (va) emergency departments, va clinics, and lab corp testing locations and patient service centers. when phase i pilot testing began in 2004 (gerberding 2005) the following data were captured: diagnostic codes for chief complaints in dod and va clinics and emergency rooms (up to four codes per patient), several medical procedure codes, laboratory test orders (about 340,000 specimens from lab corp daily), and biowatch sensor data. as of 2008, the biosense system collects data from 432 hospitals, 327 department of defense facilities, and 813 veteran's administration facilities in 10 states. biosense was an is innovation that was reinvented in several ways following its adoption. as discussed in the literature review, rogers (1995) found that reinvention can be spurred by one or more of six factors: changes in adopters' knowledge about what the technology can do, adopters' attempts to simplify innovations that are perceived as overly complex ("simplification"), adopters' need to customize a general-purpose tool ("customization"), adaptation to multiple problems, local "pride of ownership", and encouragement (or pressure) by a change agent. consistent with rogers, we found evidence of reinvention corresponding to many of these factors. recognizing that not all of these factors pertain to the reinvention of a particular innovation, in the following sections we emphasize where and how these factors come into play as we present how biosense was adapted by its users and designers. to begin, we note adaptation-related issues related to the fidelity and uniformity of the biosense innovation, in its dissemination among adopting organizations. when proposed in 2002, biosense was planned as an early detection tool for bio-terror attacks, using "real-time syndromic surveillance." as users learned about how the system worked (signaling changes in adopters' knowledge), some began to doubt the system's ability to achieve its intended goal of real-time detection. several argued that an alert physician was more likely to note an early instance of symptoms indicating a possible bio-terror attack or unusual disease outbreak, as had happened in the 2001 anthrax attacks. so, very early in the biosense rollout, the first shift came in re-articulating the goal of biosense away from noting the first instance of an occurrence of symptoms that might point to an outbreak, to what the designers referred to as "situational awareness": using data to confirm (or disconfirm) an outbreak, to pinpoint where resources are most needed and to direct resources away from localities that do not show clusters of chief complaint symptoms. biosense rapidly delineates geographic clusters of diseases or symptoms, and (even more important, in the view of one informant) helps to verify that a possible cluster is not cause for concern. our informants emphasized also that biosense was designed to spot geographic and time trends in sanitized (or de-identified) data, not to reveal nuances of individual patient data. thus, as adopters gained more knowledge about the system, they were able to adapt its use to be more effectively employed, reflecting in this instance a small shift away from the system's initial mission of "first detection" to "situational awareness." later, its mission and design were broadened further to support more routine disease surveillance activities (such as quickly identifying clusters of patients with symptoms of flu), representing a significant departure from its original intent (illustrating its adaptation to multiple problems). below, we discuss the factors that led to this and other further changes of mission (infidelity) and its use in both bio-terror and natural epidemic detection (reduction in uniformity). public accounts reveal changes in participants' views about biosense. in 2003, joseph henderson, the cdc's director of the office of terrorism preparedness and emergency response, in testimony before a congressional committee stated: "biosense is being developed to support early event detection activities associated with a possible bio-terrorism threat" (henderson 2003) . as time passed and criticism intensified, participants came to realize that the biosense tools that allowed chief complaints data to be shared and analyzed among hospitals could, with some modification also be used to confirm suspicions of naturallyoccurring outbreaks, such as sars or west nile virus, as well as food-or water-borne contamination and other communicable diseases. by 2004, the cdc's cio, jim seligman, was quoted as follows (wolfson 2004) : "we want to make sure the investments we make for terrorism will benefit daily public health, whether we have an event or not. we are trying to avoid building another stovepipe system that would only apply to terrorism and would sit idle 99.9 per cent of the time. the surveillance we are doing for a bio-terrorism event will certainly pick up a naturally occurring event at the same time." seligman's encouragement of reinvention shows how biosense's designers were accepting of changes to its initial mission, in that they promoted flexibility of design (reducing fidelity to the original mission) and use (reducing uniformity of user domains). by doing so, he increased the likelihood of institutionalizing the system by promoting its use in routine situations, and it was no longer reserved for detection of very unlikely events. an article published in 2004 reflected the change in mission for biosense. the article noted that when considering new data sources for the system, the following criteria were employed (per loonsk et al. 2004 earlier presentations about biosense had not listed the "dual-use" criterion. asked about this, an informant explained that in the absence of bio-terror attacks, a consensus had developed among participating hospitals, statisticians and public health officials that they should expand (or customize, in rogers' terms) the system to include symptoms and complaints associated with naturally-occurring outbreaks. with this move to officially condone the dual uses of the system, its designers became supportive change agents for biosense's institutionalization into users' routine processes. the timing was right: no doubt the implications of the sars epidemic abroad was not lost on the biosense participants, and over the next few years the threat of avian flu was also of great concern worldwide. in fall 2006 one interviewee described the change in focus as follows: "for a few years people were saying 'the only thing biosense is any good for spotting is influenza.' now it's like, 'holy cow, this is good for influenza!' there's a lot of federal pressure on biosense to beef up in preparation for monitoring avian flu. last year you could say, 'oh it's just influenza.' this year we're very concerned about influenza." here, the "federal pressure" reflects the encouragement of the funding source acting as a change agent for adapting biosense's mission to cover more routine situations. yet a third potential focus shift was hinted at when one interviewee noted that the statistical tools used in biosense to analyze human syndromes could be applied to outbreaks among animals. if enacted, this would be an even more significant example of adaptation to multiple problems, and would be a more severe example of a uniformity departure than the shift from bio-terrorism to naturally occurring epidemics. thus, while the initial intent was narrowly focused on the design and use of biosense for detecting bio-terror attacks, today biosense has a broader, more routine public health mission, and some participants are exploring a further broadening to include animal outbreaks. biosense has continued to evolve as it becomes more widely adopted and as complementary technologies (chircu and kaufman 2000) become available to support an even more ambitious mission. as can be seen in fig. 2 , the mission of biosense has recently been reinvented yet again in response to changes in the environment. going forward, biosense will aim to "comprehensively monitor the healthcare system of the united states for evidence of acute health threats to the public" by focusing on "early event awareness, health situational awareness, and public health response" ( lenert 2008) . as can be seen in fig. 2 , the cdc is proposing to set up regional collaboratives to work with health information exchanges (hies) and regional health information organizations (rhios), to collect and analyze clinical data identifiable at the facility level. these new organizations represent pressure by the cdc acting as a change agent to adapt biosense to an even broader set of problems, again demonstrating the flexibility of the system to fit the processes designers and users want it to support. this flexibility permits changes to operational processes in addition to technological enablement, as seen in the next section. 6.2 changes to systems and processes yetton et al. (1999) noted that successful adoption at the individual level more frequently involved adjusting innovation characteristics to individual task needs, and at the group level, innovations are significantly impacted by their implementation processes. individuals' reactions to biosense clearly demonstrated the need for simplifying data entry. minimization of manual input was considered especially important. early syndromic surveillance efforts relied on doctors, nurses and administrators to manually fill out checklists of symptoms and other data. this was found to be infeasible; clinicians feel they are simply too busy providing care to take extra time to record information that is not immediately valuable to them. one doctor noted: "if for your bio-surveillance system you require a nurse, administrator or physician to click off new data elements on a daily basis or a per patient basis-even worse!-you're no longer in business." fortunately, in the early years of this century electronic medical records became more pervasive, and in turn more data thus became available in encoded digital form for the biosense effort, enabling adopters to simplify the biosense data capture processes and to increase the likelihood of its success. still, slow progress in health-care standards-setting efforts for free-text clinical descriptions posed an impediment. while much clinical transaction data is now recorded in the national hl7 standard, free-text descriptions of chief complaints are not yet standardized (there is not yet a fully standardized nomenclature for physicians to describe what they hear from their patients). the codes for various procedures and tests are also not yet uniform; while these tend to be homogeneous within a care setting, they are not standardized across settings. thus, the biosense system and its related processes are constrained by the need for changes in health-care processes and systems to yield better and timelier information for rapid analysis. another challenge pertained to incompatibilities between syndromic surveillance based on pre-diagnostic data such as chief complaints, versus traditional public-health processes. this represented an impediment to adopting biosense, as users were concerned about how its use might require changes to existing processes. one interviewee explained: "public health procedures are geared to receiving a single notification of a possible outbreak, during working hours. and, their processes are not designed for rapid reaction to outbreak news. the emphasis is on telephoning individual clinicians, with a focus on individual-case follow-up." designers were called upon to reiterate that "most of our efforts are really not just in counting cases, but in seeing trends and corroborating." users needed this encouragement to be able to distinguish between biosense's syndromic surveillance methods and processes and prior public health efforts in disease surveillance. more recently, biosense designers have begun to take steps toward integrating biosense with the national electronic disease surveillance system (nedss), bringing together syndromic pre-diagnostic (e.g., chief complaints, lab orders) and diagnostic (e.g., lab results, physician diagnoses) data (lenert 2008) . this illustrates the continued pressure by adopters to advance the use and usefulness of biosense by further customizing the tool and expanding its reach beyond its initial mission (infidelity). because it is a public good commodity, biosense designers must consider both these users' needs and the needs of society as a whole in establishing its mission and design, as discussed in the next section. rogers proposed that reinvention sometimes occurs thanks to encouragement by a change agent and this turns out to be critical within health care. early proponents included physicians and others who were recognized nationally for their leadership in health information. these champions took advantage of their considerable professional social networks to advocate for system adoption. however, we note that multiple change agents (cdc, state and local public health officials, the media) exerted both positive and negative political pressures which affected the reinvention of biosense. for example, the addition of the "dual use" criterion in 2004 could well have been motivated by a desire to find common ground with critics. there were also other political issues. as noted earlier, following the 9/11 attacks (and post-9/11 anthrax attacks as well as the iraq war) the total amount of funding for syndromic surveillance increased greatly. in turn, however, this engendered competition as various parties sought to protect their turf. some funds that were previously earmarked for states were transferred to the cdc, which generated some controversy, illustrating the pull of local pride of ownership of a patchwork of systems vs. the added benefits of a national integrated effort. seth foldy, m.d., a spokesperson for the national association of county and city health officials, testifying in 2004 before the u.s. house of representatives articulated the need for improved information sharing between health care providers and public health and safety officials: "in the setting of a communicable disease, a covert bio-terrorism attack, or an environmental emergency, poorly informed decisions by either party result in missed opportunities to prevent injury or illness, sometimes on a massive scale…. improving the timeliness, completeness, and accuracy of information exchange in both directions is a critical goal …" (foldy 2004) . another controversial aspect centered on participants' expectations about the likelihood of future bio-terror attacks. the fall 2001 anthrax attack was only the second deliberate large-scale bio-attack in u.s. history (the first was the contamination of oregon salad bars by a cult in 1984; see mishra, 2001) . as of this writing, the u.s. has seen no large-scale bio-terror attacks since 2001. as time passed, public health officials and informatics coordinators at participating hospitals became concerned that criticism of the initiative might intensify along with the public's perception that bio-terror was unlikely to affect them. by increasing the call for biosense to expand beyond its initial, limited mission, this array of change agents encouraged expansion of the system to cover additional problems, further demonstrating the adaptability of the underlying initiative. foldy also criticized biosense as competing with the broader consolidated public health information network that was far from completed: "biosense … is a worthy, if highly experimental, project for the nation. however, it is essential to remember that it will be local health departments that, when alerted to abnormal disease trends, will do the legwork to validate such suspicions and actually manage the outbreaks. reduced funding for state and local agencies defeats the overall vision. we urge congress and the administration to support instead the larger cdc vision of a public health information network (phin), an enterprise model of information management across local, state, and federal systems, not just a single component. both nationwide projects and local capacity need support, not one at the expense of the other." (foldy, july 2004) as of 2008, the cdc has plans to incorporate regional versions and act as a national "broker" for surveillance data (lenert 2008 ; also see fig. 2 ). this reflects a move to integrate with the myriad of linked public health monitoring systems envisioned by the cdc, congress and the department of homeland security. with these longer range objectives, the collection of surveillance systems with which individuals and organizations interact will employ common, combined and automated data feeds, in effect simplifying input requirements and user effort. the continued reinvention of biosense into a regionally-based and thus customized component of the country's larger public health surveillance system demonstrates the flexibility of the program and its success as a sustainable means to addressing this complex problem. this case study relied on information in publicly available sources, triangulated against information obtained in interviews with three key informants. while these informants were well positioned to provide useful insights, we are certain that much more could have been learned had we been able to interview a greater number of biosense participants. to fully analyze the biosense case, it would be necessary to closely observe participants' behaviors and concerns during its implementation. in contrast, we relied on a limited number of interviews coupled with information found in public accounts. since innovation diffusion is a dynamic process, an ideal research design would be longitudinal. for example, a study reported by tyre and orlikowski (1994) revealed that the process of reinvention (which they termed "technological adaptation") was heavily influenced by timing, with the greatest amount of reinvention taking place shortly after adoption. routinization subsequently led "the technology and its context of use to congeal, often embedding unresolved problems into organizational practice." rather than observing a process of continuous adaptation (as was predicted by many in the literature) tyre and orlikowski observed long periods during which the innovation was not changed, punctuated by occasional short-lived episodes of reinvention. thus, longitudinal studies remain the gold standard for learning about post-adoption behaviors including reinvention. also, organizational and interorganizational is innovations are more likely to be complex than other innovations and thus require a steep post-adoption learning curve (fichman and kemerer 1997; purvis et al. 2001) , which could affect reinvention. furthermore, to derive full value from the adoption of an innovation, an organization may need to invest in complementary technologies and processes (chircu and kauffman 2000; mcafee and brynjolfsson 2008) . so, while the properties of the focal innovation can constrain or enable reinvention, it may well be that the properties of the complementary technologies and aspects of the complementary processes may also affect reinvention. biosense is a good example of a flexible is innovation that users adopted and subsequently reinvented. it illustrates the importance of attending to both users' needs and requirements, and the implementation processes controlled by its designers and other change agents. in health care, initiatives need to balance user viewpoints against benefits to the public good, a role undertaken by government change agents. thus, government support of public health initiatives is necessary to garner the funding for wide-ranging interorganizational initiatives. government involvement also opens access to the vast pools of extant data as well as attracting analysts and other users who would gain from its public good benefits. the biosense system, as initially designed, provided a flexible foundation that supported its subsequent adaptation to other applications. the database, analytical tools and coordination structures were aimed at bio-terror preparedness, yet this foundation proved to be well suited (with modifications) to a much wider range of applications which were adapted over time to support the broader, syndromic surveillance activities for influenza and other common outbreaks. there is no indication in either the interview data or the public record that these subsequent broader applications were anticipated when biosense was first proposed. yet as adopters began to work with the system, and technology emerged that enabled broader and easier application to other societal needs, many individuals worked to expand the mission of the system and proposed its use as a flexible tool for many types of analyses. the biosense case reveals evidence that is consistent with rogers' observations about drivers of innovation reinvention. his six factors contributing to innovation reinvention (adopters' knowledge, simplification, customization, adaptability, pride of ownership, and change agent pressure) were clearly evident in the design and implementation of biosense. there was no single stakeholder that initiated the expanded mission of biosense. rather, knowledgeable adopters reacted to the initial system with suggestions for simpler design and less intrusive processes. they recommended expanding the system to include syndromic surveillance for rapid onset diseases such as influenza and later for an even broader set of medical conditions. meanwhile, some stakeholders balked at replacing locally developed efforts with one imposed on them by a national body. physician opinion leaders promoted and eased implementation efforts among their professional peers. the cdc and other change agents worked to meet both user demands and societal needs for early detection, regardless of the medical origin. the cdc, as initiator of biosense, worked with other change agents to obtain mission-oriented funding. taken together, it is clear that many factors combined to shepherd the system from its origin as a "good idea" to one likely to achieve significant societal benefits. no single concern or reaction determined the reinvention path taken by biosense. instead, many stakeholders contributed to the reinvention through the perspective of all six of rogers' factors, even while recognizing that the system's adaptability was a key contributor to its reinvention. these factors served to reinvent the mission over time, leading to increased flexibility by adapting biosense to a broader scope of problems. biosense continues to be an important tool for use in the (hopefully rare) event of a bio-terror attack, but in addition it is already serving as a useful tool for use by public health officials and clinicians in more common outbreaks of naturally occurring acute diseases. the increase in flexibility reduced fidelity to the initial mission and reduced the uniformity of use by customizing it for other purposes and groups of users. what is the role of reinvention in the diffusion of interorganizational systems? we return to the two questions posed by greenhalgh et al. (2004, p. 617) to highlight biosense findings that would answer this question: "how do innovations in health service organizations arise, and in what circumstances? what mix of factors tends to produce 'adoptable' innovations (e.g. ones that have clear advantages beyond their source organization and low implementation complexity and are readily adaptable to new contexts)?" in this case, we saw a health service innovation arise as a result of the convergence of a political opportunity and a technological solution. on the medical side, we reported on the work of a dedicated set of physician change agents who recognized a gap in an important public health area and saw how information technology could assist in addressing it. they used their extensive professional networks to obtain funding to demonstrate how patient data could be repurposed to detect patterns among symptoms and treatments. at the same time, the government was intent on finding a way to address the homeland security fear of a bio-terror attack, which loosed the purse strings to fund syndromic surveillance projects. the critical events of 9/11 and the anthrax scare plus the availability of data collected in health care is further helped to grown nascent programs. in the case of biosense, we see how political feedback, monitoring of social and technology indicators, or the occurrence of critical events can serve as the impetus for a public sector initiative (kingdon 1995) . designers and supporters of the system were flexible and encouraging in reaction to user requirements and needs. the system itself was adaptable to expanding requirements and user reticence to change processes. every effort was made to not impose additional costs (in time or money) on adopting organizations, and both local and collective benefits accrued from the system's adoption. one very significant "lesson learned" bears note here. the system as originally envisioned was intended to detect infrequent or even highly unlikely events (a bioterror attack). given the low likelihood of such an occurrence, the added value of the system to any one locale could easily be overshadowed by the added "cost" of complying with its extensive data entry requirements. by extending its coverage to more detection of conditions that occur more frequently (such as influenza), the value of the system increased to adopting organizations. the incorporation of a new biosense influenza module for the 2008 flu season is evidence of this transition (lipowicz 2008) . indeed, prior research has found that routine use of a system that also supports emergency situations can greatly increase the acceptance of such a system. for example, the public safety network capwin was initially envisioned to support largescale emergency collaboration. it was only when its value was demonstrated for day-to-day public safety support that it gained a critical mass of adopters (fedorowicz et al. 2006 (fedorowicz et al. , 2007 . adopters and designers of biosense reached a similar conclusion when they added the "dual use" criteria of supporting both bioterror attacks and natural outbreaks. "how are innovations arising as 'good ideas' in local healthcare systems reinvented as they are transmitted through individual and organizational networks, and how can this process be supported or enhanced?" the case also clearly demonstrates the growth of a 'good idea' from its local roots (in massachusetts and pennsylvania) to a national effort (biosense) to the broader network of linked surveillance systems planned for implementation in the next few years. in addition, the case illustrates how users' reactions to features of an innovation can motivate changes, such as the need to repurpose existing data to deal with users' objections to collecting any new data items. the expansion of biosense to cover both bio-terror attacks and natural outbreaks, and from first awareness to situational awareness, and finally from syndrome to disease detection illustrate several stages of reinvention to address multiple problem areas and the addition of other groups of users. because it is a large and complex interorganizational system, the role of both internal and external change agents became clearly evident. the case also shows the important role of physicians' professional social networks in the diffusion process in health care. the involvement of physician change agents, supportive politicians, and thoughtful users was key, as they collectively implemented a system that was minimally intrusive yet provided assistance for a growing set of problem areas. there are still many signs of adaptation, expansion, and integration in the public health surveillance landscape. biosense continues to adapt and expand its operations. for example, in 2008, plans included adding the new influenza module, connecting to health information exchanges and the national health information network, federating with state and local surveillance data bases to create a national system, and integrating lab reporting with nedss. nedss itself is seeking funding to move into twelve remaining states (weiss 2008) . other efforts to detect disease outbreaks continue to develop in parallel with biosense. children's hospital in boston is now promoting its new system healthmap, which scours web sources using rss feeds to detect outbreaks around the world (havenstein 2008) . thus, researchers will continue to be able to study the development of biosurveillance systems over time, to identify patterns of adaptation and better understand the motivations for observed instances of reinvention. furthermore, the domain of emergency response adds a special urgency to this stream of research. in the case of biosense, we are happy to report that our nation has not, at this writing, experienced the sort of bio-terror attack for which it was originally designed and for which it continues to stand at the ready. however, should such an attack occur, there would be great value gained in closely studying how biosense is used in the immediate aftermath and whether such an event would lead the biosense designers and/or users to call for further changes in the system or related processes (such as integration with the biowatch system, which utilizes sensors to capture air samples suggestive of biological or chemical warfare). our results are highly suggestive that the phenomenon of interorganizational systems reinvention is worthy of further, and closer, attention, especially in the domain of emergency response. finally, we concur with lee (1999) , that the flexible adaptability of information systems is an under-studied but important phenomenon. the biosense case leads us to propose that reinvention of information systems is more likely to occur, and the degree of reinvention is likely to be more extensive, than would be true for other innovations. this case illustrates the complexity of reinvention and adaptation within interorganizational systems, particularly the interplay of stakeholder inputs and reactions that can be mapped within the reinvention framework. given the constellation of actors and events affecting systems designed for interorganizational information sharing and collaboration, we believe that in-depth longitudinal case studies offer the most promising methodological avenue for documenting and interpreting the diffusion of interorganizational systems innovation. catalyst prior events/collaborations that provided experience and develop relationships among key participants. events, such as a highly visible disaster or system failure, that triggered the collaboration or propelled it forward. influential supporters within participating organizations or other stakeholder groups. legislative and regulatory requirements that gave rise to a collaboration or constrained its implementation. governance organizing agreements and structures (boards, steering committees, etc.). vision and goals of the collaboration, initially and as the system matures and new participants join. implementation changes required in organizational processes and relationships to support the collaboration. training, staffing, change management. financing funding for the system design and implementation. plan for the long term financial and operational viability. legacy systems previously-installed applications or databases that constrained the design or capabilities of the new system. decisions regarding data sources, definitions, ownership, access rights and restrictions, and stewardship. standards and sourcing criteria decisions regarding de jure or de facto standards data, devices, and interoperability. decisions regarding use of open-source or commercial software for back-end and user-facing technologies. congress authorizes us marine hospital service to monitor cholera, smallpox, plague and yellow fever first summary of notifiable diseases from 19 states all states provide monthly summaries of 29 notifiable diseases cdc assumes responsibility for notifiable disease data collection and publication steering committee on public health information and surveillance system development national electronic disease surveillance system (nedss) project launched. real-time outbreak & disease surveillance (rods) system under development at u. of pittsburgh medical center. real-time syndromic surveillance system proposed by children's nedss architecture v1.0 and public health conceptual data model v1 nedss assessment and planning phase started in 43 locations. nedss architecture v2.0, logical data model overview v1.0, and logical data model data dictionary published cdc recommends that the american college of emergency physicians adopt nedss standards. public health and social services emergency fund provides $1 billion for state and local public health preparedness nedss base system v1.01 released and made available to all states. new $1 billion preparedness award to states and public health agencies, with stipulation regarding phin standards claire broome states that biosense part i is operational (phase i pilot testing) and includes data from an initial set of data providers such as dod and the veterans administration describes the phin functional requirements for systems implemented to collect, integrate, and analyze data from heterogeneous information sources for the early discovery of a potential public health emergency biosense v2.10 released biosense reported collecting data from 432 hospitals, 327 dod facilities, 813 va facilities a conceptual and operational definition of personal innovativeness in the domain of information technology at disease centers, a shift in mission and metabolism. the new york times disseminating innovations in health care consumer acceptance of virtual stores: a theoretical model and critical success factors for virtual stores the future of diffusion research. the data base for advances in information systems limits to value in electronic commerce-related it investments information technology implementation research: a technological diffusion approach intellectual technologies: the key to improving white-collar productivity no more magic targets! changing clinical practice to become more evidence based the egovernment collaboration challenge: lessons from five case studies a collaborative network for first responders the assimilation of software process innovations: an organizational learning perspective statement on behalf of the national association of county and city health officials before the subcommittee on technology, information policy, intergovernmental relations and the census, house committee on government reform. hearing on "health informatics: what is the prescription for success in intergovernmental information sharing and emergency response? determinants of innovation within health care organizations: literature review and delphi study implementing a national biodefense strategy. testimony before the u.s. house of representatives committee on homeland security, subcommittee on prevention of nuclear and biological attack development of level of institutionalization scales for health promotion programs diffusion of innovations in service organizations: systematic review and recommendations. the milbank quarterly infectious disease surveillance 2.0: crawling the net to detect outbreaks influences on reinvention during the diffusion of innovations cdc's disease surveillance systems efforts. testimony before the subcommittee on emergency preparedness and response, select committee on homeland security, united states house of representatives what is syndromic surveillance? information technology adoption across time: a cross-sectional comparison of pre-adoption and post-adoption beliefs agendas, alternatives, and public policies the need for a processual view of interorganizational systems adoption researching mis exchange of health information between public health and clinical care: the vision, challenges, and benefits innovation modification during intraorganizational adoption healthy opportunity: biosense project can bring dollars and prestige to winning contractors the biosense update. presentation biosense: a national initiative for early detection and quantification of public health emergencies implementation of laboratory order data in biosense early event detection and situation awareness system implementing syndromic surveillance: a practical guide informed by the early experience investing in the it that makes a competitive difference a heightened alert for bio-terrorism: detection system is keeping health officials apprised. the boston globe understanding postadoption behavior in the context of online services richness versus parsimony in modeling technology adoption decisions: understanding merchant adoption of a smart card-based payment system national electronic disease surveillance systems stakeholders meeting report. cdc: march the assimilation of knowledge platforms in organizations: an empirical investigation reinvention in the innovation process diffusion of innovations bio-terror role an uneasy fit for the cdc. the new york times basics of qualitative research: grounded theory procedures and techniques factors influencing the adoption of internet banking windows of opportunity: temporal patterns of technological adaptation in organizations syndrome and outbreak detection using chiefcomplaint data: experience of the real-time outbreak and disease surveillance project seven years and counting: national diseasetracking system still unfinished hierarchies and cliques in the social networks of health care professionals: implications for the design of dissemination strategies an ounce of prevention: jim seligman, cio, centers for disease control. cio insight. online at www successful is innovation: the contingent contributions of innovation characteristics and implementation acknowledgements we wish to thank our biosense contacts for their assistance on this case, and the ibm center for the business of government, which provided support. we also thank christine williams, who contributed valuable insights on this case and others in the broader study. interview and analysis guide (from project documents, web sites, and interviews) jane fedorowicz, the rae d. anderson professor of accounting and information systems, holds a joint appointment in the accountancy and information & process management departments at bentley university. dr. fedorowicz earned ms and phd degrees in systems sciences from carnegie mellon university. she is principal investigator of a national science foundation project team studying design issues for police and government agency collaboration using public safety networks. she also served as principal investigator for the bentley invision project, an international research team housed at bentley examining interorganizational information sharing and the coordination infrastructures supporting these relationships in supply chain, government, and health care. dr. fedorowicz has published over 100 articles in refereed journals and conference proceedings. the association for information systems recognized her contributions to the information systems field by naming her an ais fellow in 2006.janis l. gogan holds edm, mba, and dba degrees from harvard university. a member of the information & process management faculty at bentley university she teaches it management courses and conducts field-based research on complex it projects, inter-organizational information sharing under time pressure, and it-enabled innovation in health care. dr. gogan's publications include teaching cases which have been taught in u.s, european, australian and asian schools, and more than 85 papers in refereed conference proceedings and journals (such as communications of the association for information systems, electronic markets, international journal of electronic commerce, and journal of management information systems). key: cord-016912-vnx74hft authors: kornguth, s. title: strategic actionable net-centric biological defense system date: 2005 journal: defense against bioterror doi: 10.1007/1-4020-3384-2_1 sha: doc_id: 16912 cord_uid: vnx74hft technologies required for strategic actionable net-centric biological defense systems consist of : 1) multiplexed multi-array sensors for threat agents and for signatures of the host response to infection; 2) novel vaccines and restricted access antivirals/bacterials to reduce emergence of drug resistant strains preand post-event; 3) telemedicine capabilities to deliver post-event care to 20,000 victims of a biological strike; and 4) communication systems with intelligent software for resource allocation and redundant pathways that survive catastrophic attack. the integrated system must detect all threat agents with minimal false positive/negative events, a seamless integrated broad-band communications capability that enables conversion of data to actionable information, and novel preand post-event treatments. the development of multiplexed multi-array sensors, appropriate vaccines and antibiotics, and integrated communication capabilities are critical to sustaining normal health, commerce, and international activities. the overarching objectives in developing effective countermeasures to biological threats are to protect the defense community and citizenry from such threats, and to develop agile responses to unanticipated events considering that successful terrorists do the unexpected. the need for protection against and responses to biological threats has been strikingly demonstrated by the use of anthrax contaminated letters that were sent through the u.s. mail in october 2001. that attack resulted in human illness, the loss of life, and discontinuity of government operations because of contamination of federal office buildings in washington, dc. a recent report prepared by the center for strategic and international studies (csis) and supported by the defense threat reduction agency (dtra) of the department of defense (dod) came to the conclusion that the u.s. is at present not well prepared for a similar attack using anthrax1. the major problems include a lack of: 1) a clear chain of command, and 2) tools to provide the public with information that permits appropriate responses. the incidence of congo-crimean hemorrhagic fever in afghanistan, an area where coalition forces are being deployed, increases this need. the potential threat posed by emergent disease (e.g., severe acute respiratory syndrome [sars] and west nile fever virus) or from a major release of a contagious biological agent such as smallpox, has been a growing concern at all levels of the international community. this article outlines and discusses a new strategy that is needed if we are to be fully capable of sensing, preventing, and managing biological threats. the current paradigm addresses biological and chemical terrorist threats in a vertical (stove-piped) response. in the arena of developing sensors for the detection of biological agents, the paradigm has been to develop separate detectors for each agent or to develop a platform for detecting 12-24 threat agents using a single probe for each agent. there is a lack of an interactive networked communication system that is capable of managing a devastating emergent disease. to establish a highly networked system that is rapid enough to permit effective protection, it is necessary to evolve from the stove-piped, compartmentalized model currently in use to an integrated, fused, probabilistic, and frequently updated information model. multiplexed multi-array sensor systems, capable of recognizing all bacterial or viral genomic materials related to pathogenicity or of recognizing antigenic domains that are specific indicators of pathogens are one component of a network needed for rapid detection and identification of biological threats. with respect to therapeutics, modern technologies for vaccine and antibiotic production provide decided advantages over older methods. the traditional vaccines require extensive development times before they become available for human use and undesired side effects commonly result from vaccines produced by these protocols. the cost associated with developing and testing vaccines, using traditional technology, approximates 50-100 million dollars per vaccine. the dissemination of antibiotics and antivirals through the world markets has resulted in the appearance of pathogenic bacteria and viruses that are resistant to these drugs. one approach to reduce the development of antibiotic resistance is to restrict the distribution of newly developed antibiotics. such an approach presents ethical and social dilemmas. the consideration of options available for reduction of drug resistance, prior to a threat event, may permit development of a rational policy. a major problem facing our nations in the event of a biological attack or emergent disease is the large numbers of patients that can be anticipated to require medical treatment. although improvements in emergency medical care and hospital equipment have been achieved during the past two decades, the ability of any community to manage an outbreak of infectious disease affecting >10,000 people is lacking. rapid progress has been achieved whereby medical care can be provided to patients at sites that are distant from primary caregivers using telecommunication systems (e.g., the armed services in theater, large scale hmo providers such as kaiser permanente, or the correctional institutions in the u.s.). the funds needed to acquire telecommunication equipment for such distributed medical care delivery are estimated to be less than 100 million dollars for the entire u.s. at the present time such a distributed care system is not readily available. the new paradigm couples a network centric integrated sensor alert system that can detect all threat agents simultaneously, with a seamlessly integrated communication software capability that converts large scale data to actionable information. for this to be effective, the sensor system must yield minimal false positive and false negative results. the new paradigm incorporates large-scale databases on normative values of threat agents in many regions of the world so that significant changes in real time can be detected. the paradigm also includes the development and implementation of novel pre-and post-event treatment capabilities. attention must be paid to the ability of high level decision makers and operators to recognize that a new state of threat has emerged, based upon output of the sensors, data fusion system, and iconographic display. ambiguity of data, lack of an autonomous processing system, and high stress on the operator (e.g., sleep deprivation, lack of training) may all compromise the utility of a highly networked system of systems. what is needed for this new paradigm to succeed? the needs include multiplexed multi-array sensors for biological agents that infect people, livestock, and edible crops. the agents of concern include many on the militarily critical technologies list prepared for the office of the secretary of defense. we need multiplexed multi-array sensor systems with high specificity and selectivity for the rapid detection of host responses to infection. we need a new generation of effective therapeutics, including vaccines, antibiotics, and antivirals. a network centric intelligent communication system that can provide accurate comprehensible information to decision makers (from command officers to unit operators) is required. to minimize morbidity and mortality and optimize containment of disease, a biosurveillance system based on archival health databases, statistical models, and data mining strategies that can provide an early alert to a disease outbreak is required. in many cases the operator may be required to understand the meaning of acquired data in very short time periods (seconds to minutes) if the response is anticipated to change the outcome of an engagement. the tactical decision making under stress (tadmus) program is one example of such a situation. in the biological threat arena, the detection and identification of toxins require rapid analysis and operator comprehension. the large increase in numbers of sensors (for high explosives [hx], biological and chemical agents, meteorological conditions) together with the rapid changes in op tempo required to manage emergence of clinical disease would suggest a need for the development of systems capable of autonomous generation of an alert when threat conditions arise. in the sensors area, the genomes of most biological threat agents have been sequenced and the signatures of toxins described. novel multiplexed multi-array sensor-platform systems utilize the genomic datasets to detect the appearance of threat levels of these agents. in the therapeutics area, researchers are working towards identifying critical antigenic epitopes of these agents. new therapeutics can emerge that have an antigen binding capacity significantly greater than antigen-cell receptor binding, resulting in the potential for agent neutralization. technologies have been developed over the past decade for the development of new drugs and dna based vaccines. restricted access antivirals/antibacterials will need to be developed to reduce the emergence of drug resistant strains pre-and post-event. a significant development in our program at the university of texas at austin (ut-austin)2 has been the novel design and production of an antibody that binds the anthrax pa antigen 1000 times stronger (kd<10-11) than any antibody to date. the antibodies were produced using phage display technology for selection of the antibodies. in tests with experimental rodents in a controlled facility, administering the bacillus anthracis pa antigen to the animals resulted in 100 percent fatalities, whereas the co-administration of the newly developed antibody against the pa antigen resulted in 100 percent survival2. research is also being conducted to determine unique nucleic acid sequences in the genome of pathogenic bacteria and viruses that contribute to the pathogenic properties of the organisms. this information is being used to develop multiplexed assay systems that can detect selected agents simultaneously. by quickly screening for multiple pathogenicity island sequences or pathogenic factors, end-users will have the capability to detect the first signs of emergent disease without requiring screening for each particular organism. in the communications area, researchers are developing 'belief maintenance' software to provide decision makers some estimate of the validity of incoming data. an estimate of information credibility is critical to effective decision-making in crisis situations when one must rely on an 80 percent solution (i.e., 80 percent of needed information is available). waiting for a 100 percent solution could have a catastrophic impact on response effectiveness. in the area of telecommunications, researchers are developing the means to provide effective medical triage to victims in a contaminated hot zone. the hot zone in this case refers to a region experiencing an outbreak of a highly contagious disease that causes death in a significant percentage of infected individuals. advanced telecommunications technology can permit physicians and other medical experts at remote locations to provide medical information and support care delivery to personnel in the hot zone. prior training of these personnel (from physicians to local citizens) is required. an extensive use of local persons will be necessary if it is deemed inadvisable to introduce health care workers and communications experts into the hot zone; the external support teams are required to provide 'back-fill' support to the overburdened local community. biosurveillance systems are being developed to serve as an early warning of emergent disease. a variety of databases are being developed that are health related. examples of these databases include school absenteeism, over-the counter drug sales, hospital emergency clinic visits, and archival records on the incidence of diseases in different geographic regions, conus and oconus. each database must be statistically characterized regarding parameters such as variance, confidence intervals, seasonality, etcetera, and be integrated into validated predictive models. once the reference databases are in place and suitably modeled, statistically significant departures from baseline values can be detected and transmitted in real time to decision makers through intelligent communication systems. a number of critical technology gaps exist that must be addressed if we are to recognize, prevent, and minimize the effect of biological agents. these gaps include: deficiencies in the availability of multiplexed multi-array agent sensors and platforms; critical reagents; capability for large-scale production of effective vaccines, antibiotics and antivirals; ability to treat a large number (10,000) of infected people 24/7 for several weeks in a biological hot zone; archival biosurveillance databases and intelligent and secure communications networks. with the new capabilities and devices anticipated during the next decade, approaches that address these gaps include the use of autonomous (e.g., cell phone-based) microelectronic detectors for the transmission of data on agent exposure, development of novel antibodies, antibiotics and antivirals to manage disease outbreaks, and establishment of global surveillance systems for emergent diseases (e.g., sars, west nile fever, congo-crimean hemorrhagic fever). because of the broad scope of needs for technology to prevent and minimize biological threats, a number of research areas have been identified as critical. these include: the scientific validation that a biological incident has occurred (requisite tools/capabilities include situation awareness systems, sensors and signatures); the availability of medical countermeasures (vaccines, pharmaceuticals, and medical transport); and a highly effective communications network for the secure transmission of data and the conversion of such data to comprehensible information so that decision makers can take appropriate actions. for effective sensors, a variety of materials are being developed that include effective high-affinity binders of biological threat agents. the high affinity binders include antibodies, cdna gene probes, polynucleotide aptamers, and combinatorial chemicals. using phage display methods, antibody fragments can be selected that have a high affinity for agents such as anthrax toxin and brucella. another binding system that has been examined uses polynucleotide aptamers about 31 nucleotides long that have good binding affinity to ricin toxin. these sensor materials require opto/electronic transduction platforms. sensor platform research currently is being focused on micro-electro-mechanical systems (mems) devices, microelectronics technology, microfluidics (laboratory-on-a-chip), dna/protein microarrays, and transduction devices. efforts are also being directed toward the development of multiplexed multi-array systems that detect approximately 100 biological threat agents of concern. for military application, it is essential that sensor systems can detect and identify agents present in samples rapidly, using platforms that are small and have low power requirements. with current approaches, the development-to-market of new vaccines, antibiotics, and antivirals is in the order of 5-10 years. a paradigm shift to newer culture and dna-based technology is needed if we are to have an effective response to a major biological or chemical event. current estimates regarding the time required for developing and fielding new vaccines and antibiotics/antivirals to specific threat agents, using new technology and expedited approval, is in the order of three years. while current computer/informatics research includes the development of telecommunications assets, a critical need in the communications area is the development of seamless integrated communication networks. these network centric systems enable the conversion of data to actionable information. research is being conducted to provide intelligent agent software designs for such communication systems. this will enable an enhanced accuracy in critical decision-making and resource allocations. the integrated system must have redundant pathways that can survive a catastrophic attack. the communication system must be capable of integrating data on an emerging threat in a timely manner, and provide useful information for public safety coordination and perimeter management. telemedicine capabilities can aid in the delivery of post-event care to 10,000-20,000 victims of a biological strike in a densely populated area for 24 hours a day, seven days a week, for several months. in the event of smallpox attack in which 10,000 people develop clinical symptoms of infection within 7-10 days following exposure, local hospitals and medical response capabilities would be overwhelmed if current treatment protocols were used. telemedicine allows physicians at a remote location from the hot zone to provide medical support via telemedicine capabilities (visual, audio) to aid local physicians in treating patients. a treatment level of 50 patients per day per physician would require 200 physicians to provide telemedicine care for 10,000 patients. each physician would require telemedicine devices; hence 200 telemedicine devices would be required at the remote location, and a similar number in the hot zone. a national telemedicine system could include the establishment of approximately eight telemedicine response centers nationally, interconnected via satellite to telepresence and telemedicine/robotic systems. the remote care capability reduces the likelihood of the dissemination of disease to physicians and communities in which the physicians reside. a telemedicine system would also retain health care delivery in communities providing health care back-fill. the end goal is achievement of a rapid appropriate action in response to detection of threat (within minutes of threat identification). in order to meet this time constraint in a real world scenario, it is probable that the man-inthe-loop may have a denial capability rather than an approval function. the tools required for autonomous weighting of data and subsequent reduction of data elements for particular missions remain to be developed and agreed upon. the technologies required for data acquisition, communication, and autonomous processing fundamentally differ from that required for comprehension by an operator. the three technologies are systems that must be developed prior to deployment and will have known probabilities of accuracy and reliability. the fourth element involves the training and state of vigilance/alertness of the operator as well as the development of software (e.g., icons, data mining, and compression) used to display threat conditions. the point of the fourth element is to permit an operator to have rapid comprehension of the state of threat in a rapidly changing environment. because there is a time factor involved in the comprehension of threat conditions by an operator, and in the translation of the information into action, the fourth element must include temporal qualities. since the time dependence (seconds to minutes) of an intense threat situation will differ from that involved in a peacekeeping or supply distribution situation (many minutes to hours on the average), the autonomous weighting factors and data reduction factors can be expected to vary widely. this variability complicates programming of autonomous systems. command teams on the modern information-age medical delivery front face an increasing variety of cognitive stressors: information ambiguity, information overload, fatigue, and fear of contagion and quarantine. there is a requirement for a useful, predictive model of the effect of these stressors on individual and collective cognition within the medical delivery team. a model to quantify stress experienced by the caregiver and to identify countermeasures and mitigators of stress, develop organizational strategies for optimum performance under stress is needed. psychological assessments that can predict individual and team cognitive functioning and physiological markers that can determine quantitatively and objectively the effect of stress experienced on an operators vigilance have been identified ( table 1 ). the identification of specific physiological markers that are predictive of stressinduced changes in complex cognitive functioning will aid in the construction of autonomous weighting systems. lessons from the anthrax attacks: implications for u.s. bioterrorism preparedness. csis funded by the defense threat reduction agency of the department of defense. david heyman investigator protection against anthrax toxin by recombinant antibody fragments correlates with antigen affinity the research reported in this document was performed in connection with contract number daad13-02-c-0079 with the u.s. edgewood chemical biological command. 1. perception/comprehension 2. primary issue of concern 3. full situation awareness is contingent on at least four elements including: 4. large scale acquisition of data (i.e., sigint, masint, humint, sensors) 5. high fidelity communication of data sets to autonomous processing centers 6. data fusion involving weighting of data and marked reduction in data volume to yield information that provides users a common operational picture 7. rapid comprehension of time dependent information by operators facilitated by new iconographic displays, training, measures of vigilance key: cord-012370-omz7kibf authors: dixit, shivani; shrivastava, pankaj; kumawat, r. k.; kaitholia, kamlesh; dash, hirak ranjan; sharma, harsh; choubey, gyaneshwer title: forensic genetic analysis of population of madhya pradesh with powerplex fusion 6c(™) multiplex system date: 2019-02-14 journal: int j legal med doi: 10.1007/s00414-019-02017-0 sha: doc_id: 12370 cord_uid: omz7kibf performance of powerplex fusion 6c kit (pp f6c) was assessed in 374 unrelated individuals belonging to madhya pradesh, an indian state. the study evaluated the forensic parameters for the loci included in pp f6c multiplex system. the combined discrimination power (cpd) and combined exclusion power (cpe) were 1 and 0.999999995, respectively, for all 23 autosomal str loci. se33 showed the greatest power of discrimination (0.990) in the studied population, whereas tpox showed the lowest (0.843). the availability of three y-str loci in the multiplex system is suitable for assessing male contribution and amelogenin deletion in a single multiplex pcr simultaneously. the study also presents the first global report on polymorphism in the indian population on se 33 autosomal str loci and pp fusion 6c multiplex system. the results revealed that the studied str multiplex system is highly polymorphic and suitable for forensic purposes. electronic supplementary material: the online version of this article (10.1007/s00414-019-02017-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. description present capillary electrophoresis and pcr-based str analysis using expanded combined dna index system (codis) 20 markers are state of art in forensic dna typing [1] . for performing the identification conclusively and precisely with a significant probability value, an increase in the number of loci is recommended, as the discrimination power of any multiplex system is based on a combination of all the independent loci tested. madhya pradesh is the second largest state in india by area. the population of madhya pradesh is 72,597,565 comprising of 37,612,920 males and 34,984,645 females, contributing 6% to india's total population as per the 2011 census. a few studies have been performed to characterize the population of madhya pradesh on autosomal strs (described in table s2 ) but these studies are based on 15 str markers either using identifiler/identifiler plus (applied biosystem, usa) or powerplex 16/16hs (promega corporation, madison, usa). based on six dyes, pp f6c system (promega corporation, madison, usa) is a 27-locus multiplex that ensures simultaneous detection of 20 autosomal loci in the expanded codis (csf1po, fga, th01, tpox, vwa, d1s1656, d2s1338, d2s441, d3s1358, d5s818, d7s820, d8s1179, d10s1248, d12s391, d13s317, d16s539, d18s51, d19s433, d21s11 , and d22s1045), three more loci for better discrimination (penta d, penta e and se33), amelogenin for sex determination and dys391 and two rapidly mutating y-str loci, dys570 and dys576 for further confirmation of gender. a multi-laboratory evaluation of the pp f6c system has already been published [2] following swgdam guidelines [3] . this study is the first global attempt to work out the efficacy of pp sagar, madhya pradesh, india. the samples included in this study have not been typed by any other multiplex system and this is the first study from india detailing the forensic efficacy of a 27-marker multi-utility str multiplex system. following the code of ethics of the world medical association (i.e., declaration of helsinki) for experiments involving humans, peripheral blood samples of these unrelated individuals were collected. all individuals provided prior written informed consent. no minor was involved in the study. after dna extraction and pcr, analysis was performed on 3500xl genetic analyzer, and statistical evaluation was done as described before [4] . the peak height threshold was 50 rfu for heterozygous and 200 rfu for homozygous alleles. internal laboratory control standards and kit controls were used at all steps of analysis. the authors have passed the proficiency test of the gitad, spain (http://gitad.ugr.es/principal.htm). this article follows the population data publication guidelines formulated by the journal. the allele frequencies and results of the forensic efficiency parameters for the 23 autosomal str loci under study are given in table s1 . the frequency values observed in this study were compared with the previously published data (table s2) on 17 autosomal str markers from india and with recently published data on 22 autosomal str markers [5] . a total of 334 alleles were observed in the population of madhya pradesh, with se 33 possessing the highest (46) number of alleles and tpox with lowest (05) number of alleles (table s1 and fig. 1) . of the 374 samples tested, one sample showed amelogenin deletion, with x-profile on amelogenin marker and deletion on dys576 and dys570 marker with amplification on dys391 marker (fig. s1 ). the studied population followed the hardy-weinberg equilibrium for all loci except for d21s11, d7s820, tpox, d1s1656, d2s441, d10s1248, and fga after the bonferroni correction. the observed and expected heterozygosity in the studied multiplex system ranged from 0.577 to 0.877 and 0.661 to 0.939, respectively. the most polymorphic and discriminatory str loci in the studied population were se 33 with values of 0.94 and 0.990, respectively. all the loci included in the studied multiplex system were found to be polymorphic (pic value = < 0.62 to 0.94). the power of exclusion (pe) ranged from 0.331 (d22s1045) to 0.770 (se 33) with a value of greater than 0.999999995 for the combined power of exclusion (cpe). the power of discrimination (pd) ranged from 0.843 (tpox) to 0.990 (se 33) with a value of one for the combined power of discrimination (cpd). the combined probability of the match (cp m ) and combined paternity index (cpi) for all 23 autosomal str loci were found to be 4.4 × 10 −29 and 1.47 × 10 8 , respectively. therefore, the 23 autosomal str loci exhibited high efficacy and informativeness for forensic investigation and individualization purposes. the data obtained in this study were compared with published indian population data (table s2 ) related to common 15 autosomal str loci. pairwise fst matrix between the studied population (marked as madhya pradesh population) and reference populations at the common 15 loci have been shown in table s2 . nj tree and pca plot are given in fig. s2 and fig. 2 , respectively. the distribution pattern of populations demonstrated that the genetic affinity has existed within ethnic origins and geographically close populations. the studied population was also compared with previously published data of indian population [5] and guangdong population of china [6] at common 22 loci and nj tree was constructed using poptree2 software. the studied population (marked as madhya pradesh population) made a pool with previously published indian population reflecting the same origin and guangdong population of china was found an outlier (fig. 3) . pca plot drawn with the same populations showed that all the compared populations are genetically distant. indian population [5] and the studied population have the same origin but during evolution, they became genetically different which is reflected in pca plot. thus, the nj tree and pca analyses, both were consistent with our observations in the studied population. for the y-linked loci dys391, dys570, and dys576, estimated heterozygosity was observed as 0.32, 0.79, and 0.81 respectively (fig. s3 ). mean genetic diversity and mean genetic distance between individuals based on the cumulative values observed by the analysis of three y-strs included in pp f6c were found to be 0.973 and 5.838, respectively. the study will add to the data bank of various studies conducted on the indian population. with respect to the distribution of alleles at each str locus, the loci were found to be substantially polymorphic in this population indicating good informativeness of all studied autosomal str markers. in addition, the multiplex system is found suitable in deciphering the amelogenin deletion to avoid misinterpretation and/or to assess presence of male dna (if the dna is male mixed). the interested researchers can request the data from the authors. selection and implementation of expanded codis core loci in the united states developmental validation of the powerplex® fusion 6c system validation guidelines for dna analysis methods genetic polymorphism study at 15 autosomal locus in central indian population population genetic analyses and evaluation of 22 autosomal strs in indian populations analysis of genetic polymorphisms and mutations at 23 autosomal str loci in guangdong han the authors gratefully acknowledge the support of director, state forensic science laboratory, sagar (mp) for providing laboratory facility and promega (india) for providing the powerplex fusion 6 c for testing its efficacy on the indian population. conflict of interest the authors declare that they have no competing interest.open access this article is distributed under the terms of the creative comm ons attribution 4.0 international license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the creative commons license, and indicate if changes were made.publisher's note springer nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. key: cord-018336-6fh69mk4 authors: yasnoff, william a.; o'carroll, patrick w.; friede, andrew title: public health informatics and the health information infrastructure date: 2006 journal: biomedical informatics doi: 10.1007/0-387-36278-9_15 sha: doc_id: 18336 cord_uid: 6fh69mk4 what are the three core functions of public health, and how do they help shape the different foci of public health and medicine? what are the current and potential effects of a) the genomics revolution; and b) 9/11 on public health informatics? what were the political, organizational, epidemiological, and technical issues that influenced the development of immunization registries? how do registries promote public health, and how can this model be expanded to other domains (be specific about those domains) ? how might it fail in others?why? what is the vision and purpose of the national health information infrastructure? what kinds of impacts will it have, and in what time periods? why don’t we have one already? what are the political and technical barriers to its implementation? what are the characteristics of any evaluation process that would be used to judge demonstration projects? biomedical informatics includes a wide range of disciplines that span information from the molecular to the population level. this chapter is primarily focused on the population level, which includes informatics applied to public health and to the entire health care system (health information infrastructure). population-level informatics has its own special problems, issues, and considerations. creating information systems at the population level has always been very difficult because of the large number of data elements and individuals that must be included, as well as the need to address data and information issues that affect health in the aggregate (e.g., environmental determinants of health). with faster and cheaper hardware and radically improved software tools, it has become financially and technically feasible to create information systems that will provide the information about individuals and populations necessary for optimized decision-making in medical care and public health. however, much work remains to fully achieve this goal. this chapter deals with public health informatics primarily as it relates to the medical care of populations. however, it should be emphasized that the domain of public health informatics is not limited to the medical care environment. for example, information technology is being applied to automatically detect threats to health from the food supply, water systems, and even driving conditions (such as obstacles on the roadway beyond the reach of visible headlight beams), and to assist in man-made or natural disaster management. monitoring the environment for health risks due to biological, chemical, and radiation exposures (natural and made-made) is of increasing concern to protecting the public's health. for example, systems are now being developed and deployed to rapidly detect airborne bioterror agents. although they do not directly relate to medical care, these applications designed to protect human health should properly be considered within the domain of public health informatics. public health informatics has been defined as the systematic application of information and computer science and technology to public health practice, research, and learning (friede et al., 1995; yasnoff et al., 2000) . public health informatics is distinguished by its focus on populations (versus the individual), its orientation to prevention (rather than diagnosis and treatment), and its governmental context, because public health nearly always involves government agencies. it is a large and complex area that is the focus of another entire textbook in this series (o'carroll et al., 2003) . the differences between public health informatics and other informatics specialty areas relate to the contrast between public health and medical care itself (friede & o'carroll, 1998; yasnoff et al., 2000) . public health focuses on the health of the community, as opposed to that of the individual patient. in the medical care system, individuals with specific diseases or conditions are the primary concern. in public health, issues related to the community as the patient may require "treatment" such as disclosure of the disease status of an individual to prevent further spread of illness or even quarantining some individuals to protect others. environmental factors, especially ones that that affect the health of populations over the long term (e.g. air quality), are also a special focus of the public health domain. public health places a large emphasis on the prevention of disease and injury versus intervention after the problem has already occurred. to the extent that traditional medical care involves prevention, its focus is primarily on delivery of preventive services to individual patients. public health actions are not limited to the clinical encounter. in public health, the nature of a given intervention is not predetermined by professional discipline, but rather by the cost, expediency, and social acceptability of intervening at any potentially effective point in the series of events leading to disease, injury, or disability. public health interventions have included (for example) wastewater treatment and solid waste disposal systems, housing and building codes, fluoridation of municipal water supplies, removal of lead from gasoline, and smoke alarms. contrast this with the modern healthcare system, which generally accomplishes its mission through medical and surgical encounters. public health also generally operates directly or indirectly through government agencies that must be responsive to legislative, regulatory, and policy directives, carefully balance competing priorities, and openly disclose their activities. in addition, certain public health actions involve authority for specific (sometimes coercive) measures to protect the community in an emergency. examples include closing a contaminated pond or a restaurant that fails inspection. community partners to provide such care. though there is great variation across jurisdictions, the fundamental assurance function is unchanged: to assure that all members of the community have adequate access to needed services. the assurance function is not limited to access to clinical care. rather, it refers to assurance of the conditions that allow people to be healthy and free from avoidable threats to health-which includes access to clean water, a safe food supply, well-lighted streets, responsive and effective public safety entities, and so forth. this "core functions" framework has proven to be highly useful in clarifying the fundamental, over-arching responsibilities of public health. but if the core functions describe what public health is for, a more detailed and grounded delineation was needed to describe what public health agencies do. to meet this need, a set of ten essential public health services (table 15 .1) was developed through national and state level deliberations of public health providers and consumers (department of health and human services (dhhs), 1994). it is through these ten services that public health carries out its mission to assure the conditions in which people can be healthy. the core function of assessment, and several of the essential public health services rely heavily on public health surveillance, one of the oldest systematic activities of the public health sector. surveillance in the public health context refers to the ongoing collection, analysis, interpretation, and dissemination of data on health conditions (e.g., breast cancer) and threats to health (e.g., smoking prevalence). surveillance data represent one of the fundamental means by which priorities for public health action are set. surveillance data are useful not only in the short term (e.g., in surveillance for acute infectious diseases such as influenza, measles, and hiv/aids), but also in the longer term, e.g., in determining leading causes of premature death, injury, or disability. in either case, what distinguishes surveillance is that the data are collected for the purposes of action-either to guide a public health response (e.g., an outbreak investigation, or mitigation of a threat to a food or water source) or to help direct public health policy. a recent example of the latter is the surveillance data showing the dramatic rise in obesity in the united states. a tremendous amount of energy and public focus has been brought to bear on this problem-including a major dhhs program, the healthierus initiative-driven largely by compelling surveillance data. 1. monitor the health status of individuals in the community to identify community health problems 2. diagnose and investigate community health problems and community health hazards 3. inform, educate, and empower the community with respect to health issues 4. mobilize community partnerships in identifying and solving community health problems 5. develop policies and plans that support individual and community efforts to improve health 6. enforce laws and rules that protect the public health and ensure safety in accordance with those laws and rules 7. link individuals who have a need for community and personal health services to appropriate community and private providers 8. ensure a competent workforce for the provision of essential public health services 9. research new insights and innovate solutions to community health problems 10. evaluate the effectiveness, accessibility, and quality of personal and population-based health services in a community the fundamental science of public health is epidemiology, which is the study of the prevalence and determinants of disability and disease in populations. hence, most public health information systems have focused on information about aggregate populations. almost all medical information systems focus almost exclusively on identifying information about individuals. for example, almost any clinical laboratory system can quickly find jane smith's culture results. what public health practitioners want to know is the time trend of antibiotic resistance for the population that the clinic serves, or the trend for the population that the clinic actually covers. most health care professionals are surprised to learn that there is no uniform national routine reporting -never mind information system -for most diseases, disabilities, risk factors, or prevention activities in the united states. in contrast, france, great britain, denmark, norway and sweden have comprehensive systems in selected areas, such as occupational injuries, infectious diseases, and cancer; no country, however, has complete reporting for every problem. in fact, it is only births, deaths, and -to a lesser extentfetal deaths that are uniformly and relatively completely reported in the united states by the national vital statistics system, operated by the states and the centers for disease control and prevention (cdc). if you have an angioplasty and survive, nobody at the state or federal level necessarily knows. public health information systems have been designed with special features. for example, they are optimized for retrieval from very large (multi-million) record databases, and to be able to quickly cross-tabulate, study secular trends, and look for patterns. the use of personal identifiers in these systems is very limited, and their use is generally restricted to linking data from different sources (e.g., data from a state laboratory and a disease surveillance form). a few examples of these kinds of populationfocused systems include cdc systems such as the hiv/aids reporting system, which collects millions of observations concerning people infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) and those diagnosed with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (aids) and is used to conduct dozens of studies (and which does not collect personal identifiers; individuals are tracked by pseudo-identifiers); the national notifiable disease surveillance system, which state epidemiologists use to report some 60 diseases (the exact number varies as conditions wax and wane) every week to the cdc (and which makes up the center tables in the morbidity and mortality weekly report [mmwr] ). the cdc wonder system (friede et al., 1996) , which contains tens of millions of observations drawn from some 30 databases, explicitly blanks cells with fewer than three to five observations (depending on the dataset), specifically to prevent individuals with unusual characteristics from being identified. if there is no national individual reporting, how are estimates obtained for, say, the trends in teenage smoking or in the incidence of breast cancer? how are epidemics found? data from periodic surveys and special studies, surveillance systems, and disease registries are handled by numerous stand-alone information systems. these systemsusually managed by state health departments and federal health agencies (largely the cdc) or their agents -provide periodic estimates of the incidence and prevalence of diseases and of certain risk factors (for example, smoking and obesity); however, because the data are from population samples, it is usually impossible to obtain estimates at a level of geographic detail finer than a region or state. moreover, many of the behavioral indices are patient self-reported (although extensive validation studies have shown that they are good for trends and sometimes are more reliable than are data obtained from clinical systems). in the case of special surveys, such as cdc's national health and nutrition examination survey (nhanes), there is primary data entry into a cdc system. the data are complete, but the survey costs many millions of dollars, is done only every few years, and it takes years for the data to be made available. there are also disease registries that track -often completely -the incidence of certain conditions, especially cancers, birth defects, and conditions associated with environmental contamination. they tend to focus on one topic or to cover certain diseases for specific time periods. the cdc maintains dozens of surveillance systems that attempt to track completely the incidence of many conditions, including lead poisoning, injuries and deaths in the workplace, and birth defects. (some of these systems use samples or cover only certain states or cities). as discussed above, there is also a list of about 60 notifiable diseases (revised every year) that the state epidemiologists and the cdc have determined are of national significance and warrant routine, complete reporting; however, it is up to providers to report the data, and reporting is still often done by telephone or mail, so the data are incomplete. finally, some states do collect hospital discharge summaries, but now that more care is being delivered in the ambulatory setting, these data capture only a small fraction of medical care. they are also notoriously difficult to access. what all these systems have in common is that they rely on special data collection. it is rare that they are seamlessly linked to ongoing clinical information systems. even clinical data such as hospital infections is reentered. why? all these systems grew up at the same time that information systems were being put in hospitals and clinics. hence, there is duplicate data entry, which can result in the data being shallow, delayed, and subject to input error and recall bias. furthermore, the systems themselves are often unpopular with state agencies and health care providers precisely because they require duplicate data entry (a child with lead poisoning and salmonella needs to be entered in two different cdc systems). the national electronic disease surveillance system (nedss) is a major cdc initiative that addresses this issue by promoting the use of data and information system standards to advance the development of efficient, integrated, and interoperable surveillance systems at federal, state and local levels (see www.cdc.gov/nedss). this activity is designed to facilitate the electronic transfer of appropriate information from clinical information systems in the health care industry to public health departments, reduce provider burden in the provision of information, and enhance both the timeliness and quality of information provided. now that historical and epidemiological forces are making the world smaller and causing lines between medicine and public health to blur, systems will need to be multifunctional, and clinical and public health systems will, of necessity, coalesce. what is needed are systems that can tell us about individuals and the world in which those individuals live. to fill that need, public health and clinical informaticians will need to work closely together to build the tools to study and control new and emerging threats such as bioterror, hiv/aids, sars and its congeners, and the environmental effects of the shrinking ozone layer and greenhouse gases. it can be done. for example, in the late 1990's, columbia presbyterian medical center and the new york city department of health collaborated on the development of a tuberculosis registry for northern manhattan, and the emory university system of health care and the georgia department of public health built a similar system for tuberculosis monitoring and treatment in atlanta. it is not by chance that these two cities each developed tuberculosis systems; rather, tuberculosis is a perfect example of what was once a public health problem (that affected primarily the poor and underserved) coming into the mainstream population as a result of an emerging infectious disease (aids), immigration, increased international travel, multidrug resistance, and our growing prison population. hence, the changing ecology of disease, coupled with revolutionary changes in how health care is managed and paid for, will necessitate information systems that serve both individual medical and public health needs. immunization registries are confidential, population based, computerized information systems that contain data about children and vaccinations (national vaccine advisory committee, 1999). they represent a good example for illustrating the principles of public health informatics. in addition to their orientation to prevention, they can only function properly through continuing interaction with the health care system. they also must exist in a governmental context because there is little incentive (and significant organizational barriers) for the private sector to maintain such registries. although immunization registries are among the largest and most complex public health information systems, the successful implementations show conclusively that it is possible to overcome the challenging informatics problems they present. childhood immunizations have been among the most successful public health interventions, resulting in the near elimination of nine vaccine preventable diseases that historically extracted a major toll in terms of both morbidity and mortality (iom, 2000a) . the need for immunization registries stems from the challenge of assuring complete immunization protection for the approximately 11,000 children born each day in the united states in the context of three complicating factors: the scattering of immunization records among multiple providers; an immunization schedule that has become increasingly complex as the number of vaccines has grown; and the conundrum that the very success of mass immunization has reduced the incidence of disease, lulling parents and providers into a sense of complacency. the 1989-91 u.s. measles outbreak, which resulted in 55,000 cases and 123 preventable deaths (atkinson et al., 1992) , helped stimulate the public health community to expand the limited earlier efforts to develop immunization registries. because cdc was proscribed by congress from creating a single national immunization registry (due to privacy concerns), the robert wood johnson foundation, in cooperation with several other private foundations, established the all kids count (akc) program that awarded funds to 24 states and communities in 1992 to assist in the development of immunization registries. akc funded the best projects through a competitive process, recruited a talented staff to provide technical assistance, and made deliberate efforts to ensure sharing of the lessons learned, such as regular, highly interactive meetings of the grantees. subsequent funding of 13 states by cdc and the woodruff foundation via the information network for public health officials (inpho) project (baker et al., 1995) was greatly augmented by a presidential commitment to immunization registries announced in 1997 (white house, 1997) . this resulted in every state's involvement in registry development. immunization registries must be able to exchange information to ensure that children who relocate receive needed immunizations. to accomplish this, standards were needed to prevent the development of multiple, incompatible immunization transmission formats. beginning in 1995, cdc worked closely with the health level 7 standards development organization (see chapter 7) to define hl7 messages and an implementation guide for immunization record transactions. the initial data standard was approved by hl7 in 1997 and an updated implementation guide was developed in 1999. cdc continues its efforts to encourage the standards-based exchange of immunization records among registries. as more experience accumulated, akc and cdc collaborated to develop an immunization registry development guide (cdc, 1997) that captured the hard-won lessons developed by dozens of projects over many years. by 2000, a consensus on the 12 needed functions of immunization registries had emerged (table 15. 2), codifying years of experience in refining system requirements. cdc also established a measurement system for tracking progress that periodically assesses the percentage of immunization registries that have operationalized each of the 12 functions ( figure 15 1. electronically store data regarding all national vaccine advisory committee-approved core data elements 2. establish a registry record within 6 weeks of birth for each child born in the catchment area 3. enable access to vaccine information from the registry at the time of the encounter 4. receive and process vaccine information within 1 month of vaccine administration 5. protect the confidentiality of medical information 6. protect the security of medical information 7. exchange vaccination records by using health level 7 standards 8. automatically determine the immunization(s) needed when a person is seen by the health care provider for a scheduled vaccination 9. automatically identify persons due or late for vaccinations to enable the production of reminder and recall notices 10. automatically produce vaccine coverage reports by providers, age groups, and geographic areas 11. produce authorized immunization records 12. promote accuracy and completeness of registry data registries, the national healthy people 2010 objectives include the goal of having 95% of all u.s. children covered by fully functioning immunization registries (dhhs, 2000) . the development and implementation of immunization registries presents challenging informatics issues in at least four areas: 1) interdisciplinary communication; 2) organizational and collaborative issues; 3) funding and sustainability; and 4) system design. while the specific manifestations of these issues are unique to immunization registries, these four areas represent the typical domains that must be addressed and overcome in public health informatics projects. interdisciplinary communications is a key challenge in any biomedical informatics project-it is certainly not specific to public health informatics. to be useful, a public health information system must accurately represent and enable the complex concepts and processes that underlie the specific business functions required. information systems represent a highly abstract and complex set of data, processes, and interactions. this complexity needs to be discussed, specified, and understood in detail by a variety of personnel with little or no expertise in the terminology and concepts of information technology. therefore, successful immunization registry implementation requires clear communication among public health specialists, immunization specialists, providers, it specialists, and related disciplines, an effort complicated by the lack of a shared vocabulary and differences in the usage of common terms from the various domains. added to these potential communication problems are the anxieties and concerns inherent in the development of any new information system. change is an inevitable part of such a project-and change is uncomfortable for everyone involved. implementation of information systems. in this context, tensions and anxieties can further degrade communications. to deal with the communications challenges, particularly between it and public health specialists, it is essential to identify an interlocutor who has familiarity with both information technology and public health. the interlocutor should spend sufficient time in the user environment to develop a deep understanding of the information processing context of both the current and proposed systems. it is also important for individuals from all the disciplines related to the project to have representation in the decisionmaking processes. the organizational and collaborative issues involved in developing immunization registries are daunting because of the large number and wide variety of partners. both public and private sector providers and other organizations are likely participants. for the providers, particularly in the private sector, immunization is just one of many concerns. however, it is essential to mobilize private providers to submit immunization information to the registry. in addition to communicating regularly to this group about the goals, plans, and progress of the registry, an invaluable tool to enlist their participation is a technical solution that minimizes their time and expense for registry data entry, while maximizing the benefit in terms of improved information about their patients. it is critical to recognize the constraints of the private provider environment, where income is generated mostly from "piecework" and time is the most precious resource. governance issues are also critical to success. all the key stakeholders need to be represented in the decision-making processes, guided by a mutually acceptable governance mechanism. large information system projects involving multiple partners -such as immunization registries -often require multiple committees to ensure that all parties have a voice in the development process. in particular, all decisions that materially affect a stakeholder should be made in a setting that includes their representation. legislative and regulatory issues must be considered in an informatics context because they impact the likelihood of success of projects. with respect to immunization registries, the specific issues of confidentiality, data submission, and liability are critical. the specific policies with respect to confidentiality must be defined to allow access to those who need it while denying access to others. regulatory or legislative efforts in this domain must also operate within the context of the federal health insurance portability and accountability act (hipaa) that sets national minimum privacy requirements for personal health information. some jurisdictions have enacted regulations requiring providers to submit immunization data to the registry. the effectiveness of such actions on the cooperation of providers must be carefully evaluated. liability of the participating providers and of the registry operation itself may also require legislative and/or regulatory clarification. funding and sustainability are continuing challenges for all immunization registries. in particular, without assurances of ongoing operational funding, it will be difficult to secure the commitments needed for the development work. naturally, an important tool for securing funding is development of a business case that shows the anticipated costs and benefits of the registry. while a substantial amount of information now exists about costs and benefits of immunization registries (horne et al., 2000) , many of the registries that are currently operational had to develop their business cases prior to the availability of good quantitative data. specific benefits associated with registries include preventing duplicative immunizations, eliminating the necessity to review the vaccination records for school and day care entry, and efficiencies in provider offices from the immediate availability of complete immunization history information and patient-specific vaccine schedule recommendations. the careful assessment of costs and benefits of specific immunization registry functions may also be helpful in prioritizing system requirements. as with all information systems, it is important to distinguish "needs" (those things people will pay for) from "wants" (those things people would like to have but are not willing to spend money on) (rubin, 2003). information system "needs" are typically supported by a strong business case, whereas "wants" often are not. system design is also an important factor in the success of immunization registries. difficult design issues include data acquisition, database organization, identification and matching of children, generating immunization recommendations, and access to data, particularly for providers. acquiring immunization data is perhaps the most challenging system design issue. within the context of busy pediatric practices (where the majority of childhood immunizations are given), the data acquisition strategy must of necessity be extremely efficient. ideally, information about immunizations would be extracted from existing electronic medical records or from streams of electronic billing data; either strategy should result in no additional work for participating providers. unfortunately neither of these options is typically available. electronic medical records are currently implemented only in roughly 10-15% of physician practices. while the use of billing records is appealing, it is often difficult to get such records on a timely basis without impinging on their primary function-namely, to generate revenue for the practice. also, data quality, particularly with respect to duplicate records, is often a problem with billing information. a variety of approaches have been used to address this issue, including various forms of direct data entry as well as the use of bar codes (yasnoff, 2003) . database design also must be carefully considered. once the desired functions of an immunization registry are known, the database design must allow efficient implementation of these capabilities. the operational needs for data access and data entry, as well as producing individual assessments of immunization status, often require different approaches to design compared to requirements for population-based immunization assessment, management of vaccine inventory, and generating recall and reminder notices. one particularly important database design decision for immunization registries is whether to represent immunization information by vaccine or by antigen. vaccinebased representations map each available preparation, including those with multiple antigens, into its own specific data element. antigen-based representations translate multi-component vaccines into their individual antigens prior to storage. in some cases, it may be desirable to represent the immunization information both ways. specific consideration of required response times for specific queries must also be factored into key design decisions. identification and matching of individuals within immunization registries is another critical issue. because it is relatively common for a child to receive immunizations from multiple providers, any system must be able to match information from multiple sources to complete an immunization record. in the absence of a national unique patient identifier, most immunization registries will assign an arbitrary number to each child. of course, provisions must be made for the situation where this identification number is lost or unavailable. this requires a matching algorithm, which utilizes multiple items of demographic information to assess the probability that two records are really data from the same person. development of such algorithms and optimization of their parameters has been the subject of active investigation in the context of immunization registries, particularly with respect to deduplication (miller et al., 2001) . another critical design issue is generating vaccine recommendations from a child's prior immunization history, based on guidance from the cdc's advisory committee on immunization practices (acip). as more childhood vaccines have become available, both individually and in various combinations, the immunization schedule has become increasingly complex, especially if any delays occur in receiving doses, a child has a contraindication, or local issues require special consideration. the language used in the written guidelines is sometimes incomplete, not covering every potential situation. in addition, there is often some ambiguity with respect to definitions, e.g., for ages and intervals, making implementation of decision support systems problematic. considering that the recommendations are updated relatively frequently, sometimes several times each year, maintaining software that produces accurate immunization recommendations is a continuing challenge. accordingly, the implementation, testing, and maintenance of decision support systems to produce vaccine recommendations has been the subject of extensive study (yasnoff & miller, 2003) . finally, easy access to the information in an immunization registry is essential. while this may initially seem to be a relatively simple problem, it is complicated by private providers' lack of high-speed connectivity. even if a provider office has the capability for internet access, for example, it may not be immediately available at all times, particularly in the examination room. immunization registries have developed alternative data access methods such as fax-back and telephone query to address this problem. since the primary benefit of the registry to providers is manifest in rapid access to the data, this issue must be addressed. ready access to immunization registry information is a powerful incentive to providers for entering the data from their practice. in the united states, the first major report calling for a health information infrastructure was issued by the institute of medicine of the national academy of sciences in 1991 (iom, 1991) . this report, "the computer-based patient record," was the first in a series of national expert panel reports recommending transformation of the health care system from reliance on paper to electronic information management. in response to the iom report, the computer-based patient record institute (cpri), a private not-for-profit corporation, was formed for the purpose of facilitating the transition to computer-based records. a number of community health information networks (chins) were established around the country in an effort to coalesce the multiple community stakeholders in common efforts towards electronic information exchange. the institute of medicine updated its original report in 1997 (iom, 1997), again emphasizing the urgency to apply information technology to the information intensive field of health care. however, most of the community health information networks were not successful. perhaps the primary reason for this was that the standards and technology were not yet ready for cost-effective community-based electronic health information exchange. another problem was the focus on availability of aggregated health information for secondary users (e.g., policy development), rather than individual information for the direct provision of patient care. also, there was neither a sense of extreme urgency nor were there substantial funds available to pursue these endeavors. however, at least one community, indianapolis, continued to move forward throughout this period and has now emerged as an a national example of the application of information technology to health care both in individual health care settings and throughout the community. the year 2000 brought widespread attention to this issue with the iom report "to err is human" (iom, 2000b) . in this landmark study, the iom documented the accumulating evidence of the high error rate in the medical care system, including an estimated 44,000 to 98,000 preventable deaths each year in hospitals alone. this report has proven to be a milestone in terms of public awareness of the consequences of paperbased information management in health care. along with the follow-up report, "crossing the quality chasm" (iom, 2001) , the systematic inability of the health care system to operate at high degree of reliability has been thoroughly elucidated. the report clearly placed the blame on the system, not the dedicated health care professionals who work in an environment without effective tools to promote quality and minimize errors. several additional national expert panel reports have emphasized the iom findings. in 2001, the president's information technology advisory committee (pitac) issued a report entitled "transforming health care through information technology" (pitac, 2001) . that same year, the computer science and telecommunications board of the national research council (nrc) released "networking health: prescriptions for the internet" (nrc, 2001) which emphasized the potential for using the internet to improve electronic exchange of health care information. finally, the national committee on vital and health statistics (ncvhs) outlined the vision and strategy for building a national health information infrastructure (nhii) in its report, "information for health" (ncvhs, 2001) . ncvhs, a statutory advisory body to dhhs, indicated that federal government leadership was needed to facilitate further development of an nhii. on top of this of bevy of national expert panel reports, there has been continuing attention in both scientific and lay publications to cost, quality, and error issues in the health care system. the anthrax attacks of late 2001 further sensitized the nation to the need for greatly improved disease detection and emergency medical response capabilities. what has followed has been the largest-ever investment in public health information infrastructure in the history of the united states. some local areas, such as indianapolis and pittsburgh, have begun to actively utilize electronic information from the health care system for early detection of bioterrorism and other disease outbreaks. in 2003, separate large national conferences were devoted to both the cdc's public health information network (phin) (cdc, 2003) and the dhhs nhii initiative (dhhs, 2003 yasnoff et al., 2004 . while the discussion here has focused on the development of nhii in the united states, many other countries are involved in similar activities and in fact have progressed further along this road. canada, australia, and a number of european nations have devoted considerable time and resources to their own national health information infrastructures. the united kingdom, for example, has announced its intention to allocate several billion pounds over the next few years to substantially upgrade its health information system capabilities. it should be noted, however, that all of these nations have centralized, government-controlled health care systems. this organizational difference from the multifaceted, mainly private health care system in the u.s. results in a somewhat different set of issues and problems. hopefully, the lessons learned from health information infrastructure development activities across the globe can be effectively shared to ease the difficulties of everyone who is working toward these important goals. the vision of the national health information infrastructure is anytime, anywhere health care information at the point of care. the intent to is to create a distributed system, not a centralized national database. patient information would be collected and stored at each care site. when a patient presented for care, the various existing electronic records would be located, collected, integrated, and immediately delivered to allow the provider to have complete and current information upon which to base clinical decisions. in addition, clinical decision support (see chapter 20) would be integrated with information delivery. in this way, clinicians could receive reminders of the most recent clinical guidelines and research results during the patient care process, thereby avoiding the need for superhuman memory capabilities to assure the effective practice of medicine. the potential benefits of nhii are both numerous and substantial. perhaps most important are error reduction and improved quality of care. numerous studies have shown that the complexity of present-day medical care results in very frequent errors of both omission and commission. this problem was clearly articulated at the 2001 meeting of the institute of medicine: "current practice depends upon the clinical decision making capacity and reliability of autonomous individual practitioners, for classes of problems that routinely exceed the bounds of unaided human cognition" (masys, 2001) . electronic health information systems can contribute significantly to improving this problem by reminding practitioners about recommended actions at the point of care. this can include both notifications of actions that may have been missed, as well as warnings about planned treatments or procedures that may be harmful or unnecessary. literally dozens of research studies have shown that such reminders improve safety and reduce costs (kass, 2001; bates, 2000) . in one such study (bates et al., 1998) , medication errors were reduced by 55%. a more recent study by the rand corporation showed that only 55 % of u.s. adults were receiving recommended care (mcglynn et al., 2003) . the same techniques used to reduce medical errors with electronic health information systems also contribute substantially to ensuring that recommended care is provided. this is becoming increasingly important as the population ages and the prevalence of chronic disease increases. guidelines and reminders also can improve the effectiveness of dissemination of new research results. at present, widespread application of a new research in the clinical setting takes an average of 17 years (balas & boren, 2000) . patient-specific reminders delivered at the point of care highlighting important new research results could substantially increase the adoption rate. another important contribution of nhii to the research domain is improving the efficiency of clinical trials. at present, most clinical trials require creation of a unique information infrastructure to insure protocol compliance and collect essential research data. with nhii, where every practitioner would have access to a fully functional electronic health record, clinical trials could routinely be implemented through the dissemination of guidelines that specify the research protocol. data collection would occur automatically in the course of administering the protocol, reducing time and costs. in addition, there would be substantial value in analyzing deidentified aggregate data from routine patient care to assess the outcomes of various treatments, and monitor the health of the population. another critical function for nhii is early detection of patterns of disease, particularly early detection of possible bioterrorism. our current system of disease surveillance, which depends on alert clinicians diagnosing and reporting unusual conditions, is both slow and potentially unreliable. most disease reporting still occurs using the postal service, and the information is relayed from local to state to national public health authorities. even when fax or phone is employed, the system still depends on the ability of clinicians to accurately recognize rare and unusual diseases. even assuming such capabilities, individual clinicians cannot discern patterns of disease beyond their sphere of practice. these problems are illustrated by the seven unreported cases of cutaneous anthrax in the new york city area two weeks before the so-called "index" case in florida in the fall of 2001 (lipton & johnson, 2001) . since all the patients were seen by different clinicians, the pattern could not have been evident to any of them even if the diagnosis had immediately been made in every case. wagner et al have elucidated nine categories of requirements for surveillance systems for potential bioterrorism outbreaks-several categories must have immediate electronic reporting to insure early detection (wagner et al., 2003) . nhii would allow immediate electronic reporting of both relevant clinical events and laboratory results to public health. not only would this be an invaluable aid in early detection of bioterrorism, it would also serve to improve the detection of the much more frequent naturally occurring disease outbreaks. in fact, early results from a number of electronic reporting demonstration projects show that disease outbreaks can routinely be detected sooner than was ever possible using the current system (overhage et al., 2001) . while early detection has been shown to be a key factor in reducing morbidity and mortality from bioterrorism (kaufmann et al., 1997) , it will also be extremely helpful in reducing the negative consequences from other disease outbreaks. this aspect of nhii is discussed in more detail in section 15.5. finally, nhii can substantially reduce health-care costs. the inefficiencies and duplication in our present paper-based health care system are enormous. recent study showed that the anticipated nationwide savings from implementing advanced computerized provider order entry (cpoe) systems in the outpatient environment would be $44 billion per year (johnston et al., 2003) , while a related study (walker et al., 2004) estimated $78 billion more is savings from health information exchange (for a total of $112 billion per year). substantial additional savings are possible in the inpatient setting-numerous hospitals have reported large net savings from implementation of electronic health records. another example, electronic prescribing, would not only reduce medication errors from transcription, but also drastically decrease the administrative costs of transferring prescription information from provider offices to pharmacies. a more recent analysis concluded that the total efficiency and patient safety savings from nhii would be in range of $142-371 billion each year (hillestad et al., 2005) . while detailed studies of the potential savings from comprehensive implementation of nhii, including both electronic health records and effective exchange of health information, are still ongoing, it is clear that the cost reductions will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars each year. it is important to note that much of the savings depends not just on the widespread implementation of electronic health records, but the effective interchange of this information to insure that the complete medical record for every patient is immediately available in every care setting. there are a number of significant barriers and challenges to the development of nhii. perhaps the most important of these relates to protecting the confidentiality of electronic medical records. the public correctly perceives that all efforts to make medical records more accessible for appropriate and authorized purposes simultaneously carry the risk of increased availability for unscrupulous use. while the implementation of the hipaa privacy and security rules (see chapter 10) has established nationwide policies for access to medical information, maintaining public confidence requires mechanisms that affirmatively prevent privacy and confidentiality breaches before they occur. development, testing, and implementation of such procedures must be an integral part of any nhii strategy. another important barrier to nhii is the misalignment of financial incentives in the health care system. although the benefits of nhii are substantial, they do not accrue equally across all segments of the system. in particular, the benefits are typically not proportional to the required investments for a number of specific stakeholder groups. perhaps most problematic is the situation for individual and small group health care providers, who are being asked to make substantial allocations of resources to electronic health record systems that mostly benefit others. mechanisms must be found to assure the equitable distribution of nhii benefits in proportion to investments made. while this issue is the subject of continuing study, early results indicate that most of the nhii financial benefit accrues to payers of care. therefore, programs and policies must be established to transfer appropriate savings back to those parties who have expended funds to produce them. one consequence of the misaligned financial incentives is that the return on investment for health information technology needed for nhii is relatively uncertain. while a number of health care institutions, particularly large hospitals, have reported substantial cost improvements from electronic medical record systems, the direct financial benefits are by no means a forgone conclusion, especially for smaller organizations. the existing reimbursement system in the united states does not provide ready access to the substantial capital required by many institutions. for health care organizations operating on extremely thin margins, or even in the red, investments in information technology are impractical regardless of the potential return. in addition, certain legal and regulatory barriers prevent the transfer of funds from those who benefit from health information technology to those who need to invest but have neither the means nor the incentive of substantial returns. laws and regulations designed to prevent fraud and abuse, payments for referrals, and private distribution of disguised "profits" from nonprofit organizations are among those needing review. it is important that mechanisms be found to enable appropriate redistribution of savings generated from health information technology without creating loopholes that would allow abusive practices. another key barrier to nhii is that many of the benefits relate to exchanges of information between multiple health care organizations. the lack of interoperable electronic medical record systems that provide for easy transfer of records from one place to another is a substantial obstacle to achieving the advantages of nhii. also, there is a "first mover disadvantage" in such exchange systems. the largest value is generated when all health care organizations in a community participate electronic information exchange. therefore, if only a few organizations begin the effort, their costs may not be offset by the benefits. a number of steps are currently under way to accelerate the progress towards nhii in the united states. these include establishing standards, fostering collaboration, funding demonstration projects in communities that include careful evaluation, and establishing consensus measures of progress. establishing electronic health record standards that would promote interoperability is the most widely recognized need in health information technology at the present time. within institutions that have implemented specific departmental applications, extensive time and energy is spent developing and maintaining interfaces among the various systems. although much progress has been made in this area by organizations such as health level 7, even electronic transactions of specific health care data (such as laboratory results) are often problematic due to differing interpretations of the implementation of existing standards. recently, the u.s. government has made substantial progress in this area. ncvhs, the official advisory body on these matters to dhhs, has been studying the issues of both message and content standards for patient medical record information for several years (ncvhs, 2000) . the consolidated healthcare informatics (chi) initiative recommended five key standards (hl7 version 2.x, loinc, dicom, ieee 1073, and ncpdp script) that were adopted for government-wide use in early 2003, followed by 15 more that were added in 2004. in july, 2003, the federal government licensed the comprehensive medical vocabulary known as snomed (systematized nomenclature of medicine; see chapter 7), making it available to all u.s. users at no charge. this represents a major step forward in the deployment of vocabulary standards for health information systems. unlike message format standards, such as hl7, vocabulary standards are complex and expensive to develop and maintain and therefore require ongoing financial support. deriving the needed funding from end users creates a financial obstacle to deployment of the standard. removing this key barrier to adoption should promote much more widespread use over the next few years. another important project now under way is the joint effort of the institute of medicine and hl7 to develop a detailed functional definition of the electronic health record (ehr). these functional standards will provide a benchmark for comparison of existing and future ehr systems, and also may be utilized as criteria for possible financial incentives that could be provided to individuals and organizations that implement such systems. the elucidation of a consensus functional definition of the ehr also should help prepare the way for its widespread implementation by engaging all the stakeholders in an extended discussion of its desired capabilities. this functional standardization of the ehr is expected to be followed by the development of a formal interchange format standard (ifs) to be added to hl7 version 3. this standard would enable full interoperability of ehr systems through the implementation of an import and export capability to and from the ifs. while it is possible at the present time to exchange complete electronic health records with existing standards, is both difficult and inconvenient. the ifs will greatly simplify the process, making it easy to accomplish the commonly needed operation of transferring an entire electronic medical record from one facility to another. another key standard that is needed involves the representation of guideline recommendations. while the standard known as arden syntax (hl7, 2003; see chapter 7) partially addresses this need, many real-world medical care guidelines are too complex to be represented easily in this format. at the present time, the considerable effort required to translate written guidelines and protocols into computer executable form must be repeated at every health care organization wishing to incorporate them in their ehr. development of an effective guideline interchange standard would allow medical knowledge to be encoded once and then distributed widely, greatly increasing the efficiency of the process (peleg at al., 2003) . collaboration is another important strategy in promoting nhii. to enable the massive changes needed to transform the health care system from its current paper-based operation to the widespread utilization of electronic health information systems, the support of a very large number of organizations and individuals with highly varied agendas is required. gathering and focusing this support requires extensive cooperative efforts and specific mechanisms for insuring that everyone's issues and concerns are expressed, appreciated, and incorporated into the ongoing efforts. this process is greatly aided by a widespread recognition of the serious problems that exist today in the u.s. healthcare system. a number of private collaboration efforts have been established such as the e-health initiative and the national alliance for health information technology (nahit). in the public sector, national health information infrastructure (nhii) has become a focus of activity at dhhs. as part of this effort, the first ever national stakeholders meeting for nhii was convened in mid-2003 to develop a consensus national agenda for moving forward (yasnoff et al., 2004) . these multiple efforts are having the collective effect of both catalyzing and promoting organizational commitment to nhii. for example, many of the key stakeholders are now forming high-level committees to specifically address nhii issues. for some of these organizations, this represents the first formal recognition that this transformational process is underway and will have a major impact on their activities. it is essential to include all stakeholders in this process. in addition to the traditional groups such as providers, payers, hospitals, health plans, health it vendors, and health informatics professionals, representatives of groups such as consumers (e.g., aarp) and the pharmaceutical industry must be brought into the process. the most concrete and visible strategy for promoting nhii is the encouragement of demonstration projects in communities, including the provision of seed funding. by establishing clear examples of the benefits and advantages of comprehensive health information systems in communities, additional support for widespread implementation can be garnered at the same time that concerns of wary citizens and skeptical policymakers are addressed. there are several important reasons for selecting a community-based strategy for nhii implementation. first and foremost, the existing models of health information infrastructures (e.g., indianapolis and spokane, wa) are based in local communities. this provides proof that it is possible to develop comprehensive electronic health care information exchange systems in these environments. in contrast, there is little or no evidence that such systems can be directly developed on a larger scale. furthermore, increasing the size of informatics projects disproportionately increases their complexity and risk of failure. therefore, keeping projects as small as possible is always a good strategy. since nhii can be created by effectively connecting communities that have developed local health information infrastructures (lhiis), it is not necessary to invoke a direct national approach to achieve the desired end result. a good analogy is the telephone network, which is composed of a large number of local exchanges that are then connected to each other to form community and then national and international networks. another important element in the community approach is the need for trust to overcome confidentiality concerns. medical information is extremely sensitive and its exchange requires a high degree of confidence in everyone involved in the process. the level of trust needed seems most likely to be a product of personal relationships developed over time in a local community and motivated by a common desire to improve health care for everyone located in that area. while the technical implementation of information exchange is non-trivial, it pales in comparison to the challenges of establishing the underlying legal agreements and policy changes that must precede it. for example, when indianapolis implemented sharing of patient information in hospital emergency rooms throughout the area, as many as 20 institutional lawyers needed to agree on the same contractual language (overhage, 2002) . the community approach also benefits from the fact that the vast majority of health care is delivered locally. while people do travel extensively, occasionally requiring medical care while away from home, and there are few out-of-town consultations for difficult and unusual medical problems, for the most part people receive their health care in the community in which they reside. the local nature of medical care results in a natural interest of community members in maintaining and improving the quality and efficiency of their local health care system. for the same reasons, it is difficult to motivate interest in improving health care beyond the community level. focusing nhii efforts on one community at a time also keeps the implementation problem more reasonable in its scope. it is much more feasible to enable health information interchange among a few dozen hospitals and a few hundred or even a few thousand providers than to consider such a task for a large region or the whole country. this also allows for customized approaches sensitive to the specific needs of each local community. the problems and issues of medical care in a densely populated urban area are clearly vastly different than in a rural environment. similarly, other demographic and organizational differences as well as the presence of specific highly specialized medical care institutions make each community's health care system unique. a local approach to hii development allows all these complex and varied factors to be considered and addressed, and respects the reality of the american political landscape, which gives high priority to local controls. the community-based approach to hii development also benefits from the establishment of national standards. the same standards that allow effective interchange of information between communities nationwide can also greatly facilitate establishing effective communication of medical information within a community. in fact, by encouraging (and even requiring) communities to utilize national standards in building their own lhiis, the later interconnection of those systems to provide nationwide access to medical care information becomes a much simpler and easier process. demonstration projects also are needed to develop and verify a replicable strategy for lhii development. while there are a small number of existing examples of lhii systems, no organization or group has yet demonstrated the ability to reliably and successfully establish such systems in multiple communities. from the efforts of demonstration projects in numerous communities, it should be possible to define a set of strategies that can be applied repeatedly across the nation. seed funding is essential in the development of lhii systems. while health care in united states is a huge industry, spending approximately $1.5 trillion each year and representing 14% of the gdp, shifting any of the existing funds into substantial it investments is problematic. the beneficiaries of all the existing expenditures seem very likely to strongly oppose any such efforts. on the other hand, once initial investments begin to generate the expected substantial savings, it should be possible to develop mechanisms to channel those savings into expanding and enhancing lhii systems. careful monitoring of the costs and benefits of local health information interchange systems will be needed to verify the practicality of this approach to funding and sustaining these projects. finally, it is important to assess and understand the technical challenges and solutions applied to lhii demonstration projects. while technical obstacles are usually not serious in terms of impeding progress, understanding and disseminating the most effective solutions can result in smoother implementation as experience is gained throughout the nation. the last element in the strategy for promoting a complex and lengthy project such as nhii is careful measurement of progress. the measures used to gauge progress define the end state and therefore must be chosen with care. measures may also be viewed as the initial surrogate for detailed requirements. progress measures should have certain key features. first, they should be sufficiently sensitive so that their values change at a reasonable rate (a measure that only changes value after five years will not be particularly helpful). second, the measures must be comprehensive enough to reflect activities that impact most of the stakeholders and activities needing change. this ensures that efforts in every area will be reflected in improved measures. third, the measures must be meaningful to policymakers. fourth, periodic determinations of the current values of the measures should be easy so that the measurement process does not detract from the actual work. finally, the totality of the measures must reflect the desired end state so that when the goals for all the measures are attained, the project is complete. a number of different types or dimensions of measures for nhii progress are possible. aggregate measures assess nhii progress over the entire nation. examples include the percentage of the population covered by an lhii and the percentage of health care personnel whose training occurs in institutions that utilize electronic health record systems. another type of measure is based on the setting of care. progress in implementation of electronic health record systems in the inpatient, outpatient, long-term care, home, and community environments could clearly be part of an nhii measurement program. yet another dimension is health care functions performed using information systems support, including, for example, registration systems, decision support, cpoe, and community health information exchange. it is also important to assess progress with respect to the semantic encoding of electronic health records. clearly, there is a progression from the electronic exchange of images of documents, where the content is only readable by the end user viewing the image, to fully encoded electronic health records where all the information is indexed and accessible in machine-readable form using standards. finally, progress can also be benchmarked based on usage of electronic health record systems by health care professionals. the transition from paper records to available electronic records to fully used electronic records is an important signal with respect to the success of nhii activities. to illustrate some of the informatics challenges inherent in nhii, the example of its application to homeland security will be used. bioterrorism preparedness in particular is now a key national priority, especially following the anthrax attacks that occurred in the fall of 2001. early detection of bioterrorism is critical to minimize morbidity and mortality. this is because, unlike other terrorist attacks, bioterrorism is usually silent at first. its consequences are usually the first evidence that an attack has occurred. traditional public health surveillance depends on alert clinicians reporting unusual diseases and conditions. however, it is difficult for clinicians to detect rare and unusual diseases since they are neither familiar with their manifestations nor suspicious of the possibility of an attack. also, it is often difficult to differentiate potential bioterrorism from more common and benign manifestations of illness. this is clearly illustrated by the seven cases of cutaneous anthrax that occurred in the new york city area two weeks prior to the "index " case in florida the fall of 2001 (lipton & johnson, 2001) . all these cases presented to different clinicians, none of whom recognized the diagnosis of anthrax with sufficient confidence to notify any public health authority. furthermore, such a pattern involving similar cases presenting to multiple clinicians could not possibly be detected by any of them. it seems likely that had all seven of these patients utilized the same provider, the immediately evident pattern of unusual signs and symptoms alone would have been sufficient to result in an immediate notification of public health authorities even in the absence of any diagnosis. traditional public health surveillance also has significant delays. much routine reporting is still done via postcard and fax to the local health department, and further delays occur before information is collated, analyzed, and reported to state and finally to federal authorities. there is also an obvious need for a carefully coordinated response after a bioterrorism event is detected. health officials, in collaboration with other emergency response agencies, must carefully assess and manage health care assets and ensure rapid deployment of backup resources. also, the substantial increase in workload created from such an incident must be distributed effectively among available hospitals, clinics, and laboratories, often including facilities outside the affected area. the vision for the application of nhii to homeland security involves both early detection of bioterrorism and the response to such an event. clinical information relevant to public health would be reported electronically in near real-time. this would include clinical lab results, emergency room chief complaints, relevant syndromes (e.g., flu-like illness), and unusual signs, symptoms, or diagnoses. by generating these electronic reports automatically from electronic health record systems, the administrative reporting burden currently placed on clinicians would be eliminated. in addition, the specific diseases and conditions reported could be dynamically adjusted in response to an actual incident or even information related to specific threats. this latter capability would be extremely helpful in carefully tracking the development of an event from its early stages. nhii could also provide much more effective medical care resource management in response to events. this could include automatic reporting of all available resources so they could be allocated rapidly and efficiently, immediate operational visibility of all health care assets, and effective balancing of the tremendous surge in demand for medical care services. this would also greatly improve decision making about deployment of backup resources. using nhii for these bioterrorism preparedness functions avoids developing a separate, very expensive infrastructure dedicated to these rare events. as previously stated, the benefits of nhii are substantial and fully justify its creation even without these bioterrorism preparedness capabilities, which would be an added bonus. furthermore, the same infrastructure that serves as an early detection system for bioterrorism also will allow earlier and more sensitive detection of routine naturally occurring disease outbreaks (which are much more common) as well as better management of health care resources in other disaster situations. the application of nhii to homeland security involves a number of difficult informatics challenges. first, this activity requires participation from a very wide range of both public and private organizations. this includes all levels of government and organizations that have not had significant prior interactions with the health care system such as agriculture, police, fire, and animal health. needless to say, these organizations have divergent objectives and cultures that do not necessarily mesh easily. health and law enforcement in particular have a significantly different view of a bioterrorism incident. for example, an item that is considered a "specimen" in the health care system may be regarded as "evidence" by law enforcement. naturally, this wide variety of organizations has incompatible information systems, since for the most part they were designed and deployed without consideration for the issues raised by bioterrorism. not only do they have discordant design objectives, but they lack standardized terminology and messages to facilitate electronic information exchange. furthermore, there are serious policy conflicts among these various organizations, for example, with respect to access to information. in the health care system, access to information is generally regarded as desirable, whereas in law enforcement it must be carefully protected to maintain the integrity of criminal investigations. complicating these organizational, cultural, and information systems issues, bioterrorism preparedness has an ambiguous governance structure. many agencies and organizations have legitimate and overlapping authority and responsibility, so there is often no single clear path to resolve conflicting issues. therefore, a high degree of collaboration and collegiality is required, with extensive pre-event planning so that roles and responsibilities are clarified prior to any emergency. within this complex environment, there is also a need for new types of systems with functions that have never before been performed. bioterrorism preparedness results in new requirements for early disease detection and coordination of the health care system. precisely because these requirements are new, there are few (if any) existing systems that have similar functions. therefore careful consideration to design requirements of bioterrorism preparedness systems is essential to ensure success. most importantly, there is an urgent need for interdisciplinary communication among an even larger number of specialty areas than is typically the case with health information systems. all participants must recognize that each domain has its own specific terminology and operational approaches. as previously mentioned in the public health informatics example, the interlocutor function is vital. since it is highly unlikely that any single person will be able to span all or even most of the varied disciplinary areas, everyone on the team must make a special effort to learn the vocabulary used by others. as a result of these extensive and difficult informatics challenges, there are few operational information systems supporting bioterrorism preparedness. it is interesting to note that all the existing systems developed to date are local. this is most likely a consequence of the same issues previously delineated in the discussion of the advantages of community-based strategies for nhii development. one such system performs automated electronic lab reporting in indianapolis (overhage et al., 2001) . the development of this system was led by the same active informatics group that developed the lhii in the same area. nevertheless, it took several years of persistent and difficult efforts to overcome the technical, organizational, and legal issues involved. for example, even though all laboratories submitted data in "standard" hl7 format, it turned out that many of them were interpreting the standard in such a way that the electronic transactions could not be effectively processed by the recipient system. to address this problem, extensive reworking of the software that generated these transactions was required for many of the participating laboratories. another example of a bioterrorism preparedness system involves emergency room chief complaint reporting in pittsburgh (tsui et al., 2003) . this is a collaborative effort of multiple institutions with existing electronic medical record systems. it has also been led by an active informatics group that has worked long and hard to overcome technical, organizational, and legal challenges. it provides a near real-time "dashboard" for showing the incidence rates of specific types of syndromes, such as gastrointestinal and respiratory. this information is very useful for monitoring the patterns of diseases presenting to the area's emergency departments. note that both of these systems were built upon extensive prior work done by existing informatics groups. they also took advantage of existing local health information infrastructures that provided either available or least accessible electronic data streams. in spite of these advantages, it is clear from these and other efforts that the challenges in building bioterrorism preparedness systems are immense. however, having an existing health information infrastructure appears to be a key prerequisite. such an infrastructure implies the existence of a capable informatics group and available electronic health data in the community. public health informatics may be viewed as the application of biomedical informatics to populations. in a sense, it is the ultimate evolution of biomedical informatics, which has traditionally focused on applications related to individual patients. public health informatics highlights the potential of the health informatics disciplines as a group to integrate information from the molecular to the population level. public health informatics and the development of health information infrastructures are closely related. public health informatics deals with public health applications, whereas health information infrastructures are population-level applications primarily focused on medical care. while the information from these two areas overlaps, the orientation of both is the community rather than the individual. public health and health care have not traditionally interacted as closely as they should. in a larger sense, both really focus on the health of communities-public health does this directly, while the medical care system does it one patient at a time. however, it is now clear that medical care must also focus on the community to integrate the effective delivery of services across all care settings for all individuals. the informatics challenges inherent in both public health informatics and the development of health information infrastructures are immense. they include the challenge of large numbers of different types of organizations including government at all levels. this results in cultural, strategic, and personnel challenges. the legal issues involved in interinstitutional information systems, especially with regard to information sharing, can be daunting. finally, communications challenges are particularly difficult because of the large number of areas of expertise represented, including those that go beyond the health care domain (e.g., law enforcement). to deal with these communication issues, the interlocutor function is particularly critical. however, the effort required to address the challenges of public health informatics and health information infrastructures is worthwhile because the potential benefits are so substantial. effective information systems in these domains can help to assure effective prevention, high-quality care, and minimization of medical errors. in addition to the resultant decreases in both morbidity and mortality, these systems also have the potential to save hundreds of billions of dollars in both direct and indirect costs. it has been previously noted that one of the key differences between public health informatics and other informatics disciplines is that it includes interventions beyond the medical care system, and is not limited to medical and surgical treatments (yasnoff et al., 2000) . so despite the focus of most current public health informatics activities on population-based extensions of the medical care system (leading to the orientation of this chapter), applications beyond this scope are both possible and desirable. indeed, the phenomenal contributions to health made by the hygienic movement of the 19th and early 20th centuries suggest the power of large-scale environmental, legislative, and social changes to promote human health (rosen, 1993) . public health informatics must explore these dimensions as energetically as those associated with prevention and clinical care at the individual level. the effective application of informatics to populations through its use in both public health and the development of health information infrastructures is a key challenge of the 21st century. it is a challenge we must accept, understand, and overcome if we want to create an efficient and effective health care system as well as truly healthy communities for all. questions for further study: while some of the particulars are a little dated, this accessible document shows how public health professionals approach informatics problems can electronic medical record systems transform health care? potential health benefits a consensus action agenda for achieving the national health information infrastructure public health informatics: how information-age technology can strengthen public health public health 101 for informaticians public health informatics and information systems the value of healthcare information exchange and interoperability a consensus action agenda for achieving the national health information infrastructure public health informatics: improving and transforming public health in the information age what are the current and potential effects of a) the genomics revolution; and b) 9/11 on public health informatics? how can the successful model of immunization registries be used in other domains of public health (be specific about those domains)? how might it fail in others? why? fourteen percent of the us gdp is spent on medical care (including public health). how could public health informatics help use those monies more efficiently? or lower the figure absolutely? compare and contrast the database desiderata for clinical versus public health information systems. explain it from non-technical and technical perspectives make the case for and against investing billions in an nhii what organizational options would you consider if you were beginning the development of a local health information infrastructure? what are the pros and cons of each? how would you proceed with making a decision about which one to use? phi) involves the application of information technology in any manner that improves or promotes human health, does this necessarily involve a human "user" that interacts with the phi application? for example, could the information technology underlying anti-lock braking systems be considered a public health informatics application? key: cord-310288-onr700ue authors: sciubba, daniel m.; ehresman, jeff; pennington, zach; lubelski, daniel; feghali, james; bydon, ali; chou, dean; elder, benjamin d.; elsamadicy, aladine a.; goodwin, c. rory; goodwin, matthew l.; harrop, james; klineberg, eric o.; laufer, ilya; lo, sheng-fu l.; neuman, brian j.; passias, peter g.; protopsaltis, themistocles; shin, john h.; theodore, nicholas; witham, timothy f.; benzel, edward c. title: scoring system to triage patients for spine surgery in the setting of limited resources: application to the covid-19 pandemic and beyond date: 2020-05-29 journal: world neurosurg doi: 10.1016/j.wneu.2020.05.233 sha: doc_id: 310288 cord_uid: onr700ue abstract background as of may 04, 2020, the covid-19 pandemic has affected over 3.5 million people and touched every inhabited continent. accordingly, it has stressed health systems the world over leading to the cancellation of elective surgical cases and discussions regarding healthcare resource rationing. it is expected that rationing of surgical resources will continue even after the pandemic peak, and may recur with future pandemics, creating a need for a means of triaging emergent and elective spine surgery patients. methods using a modified delphi technique, a cohort of 16 fellowship-trained spine surgeons from 10 academic medical centers constructed a scoring system for the triage and prioritization of emergent and elective spine surgeries. three separate rounds of videoconferencing and written correspondence were used to reach a final scoring system. sixteen test cases were used to optimize the scoring system so that it could categorize cases as requiring emergent, urgent, high-priority elective, or low-priority elective scheduling. results the devised scoring system included 8 independent components: neurological status, underlying spine stability, presentation of a high-risk post-operative complication, patient medical comorbidities, expected hospital course, expected discharge disposition, facility resource limitations, and local disease burden. the resultant calculator was deployed as a freely-available web-based calculator (https://jhuspine3.shinyapps.io/spineurgencycalculator/). conclusion here we present the first quantitative urgency scoring system for the triage and prioritizing of spine surgery cases in resource-limited settings. we believe that our scoring system, while not all-encompassing, has potential value as a guide for triaging spine surgical cases during the covid pandemic and post-covid period. every inhabited continent. accordingly, it has stressed health systems the world over leading to 4 the cancellation of elective surgical cases and discussions regarding healthcare resource 5 rationing. it is expected that rationing of surgical resources will continue even after the pandemic 6 peak, and may recur with future pandemics, creating a need for a means of triaging emergent and 7 elective spine surgery patients. 8 9 methods 10 using a modified delphi technique, a cohort of 16 fellowship-trained spine surgeons from 10 11 academic medical centers constructed a scoring system for the triage and prioritization of 12 emergent and elective spine surgeries. three separate rounds of videoconferencing and written 13 correspondence were used to reach a final scoring system. sixteen test cases were used to 14 optimize the scoring system so that it could categorize cases as requiring emergent, urgent, high-15 priority elective, or low-priority elective scheduling. 16 17 results the devised scoring system included 8 independent components: neurological status, underlying 19 spine stability, presentation of a high-risk post-operative complication, patient medical 20 comorbidities, expected hospital course, expected discharge disposition, facility resource 21 limitations, and local disease burden. the resultant calculator was deployed as a freely-available 22 web-based calculator (https://jhuspine3.shinyapps.io/spineurgencycalculator/). 23 24 conclusion 25 here we present the first quantitative urgency scoring system for the triage and prioritizing of 26 spine surgery cases in resource-limited settings. we believe that our scoring system, while not 27 all-encompassing, has potential value as a guide for triaging spine surgical cases during the 28 covid pandemic and post-covid period. 29 in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ards) and/or death. 1, 2 since that time it has spread 4 rapidly to affect nearly every country, placing significant stresses on the global healthcare 5 system. 3 in order to mobilize resources to combat this pandemic, the centers for medicare and 6 medicaid services (cms), 4 the centers for disease control and prevention (cdc), 5 and multiple 7 professional organizations 6,7 recommended the cancellation of elective surgical procedures. in 8 spite of this, it was recognized that there were cases, many of them neurosurgical, which required 9 urgent or emergent intervention to minimize patient morbidity and maximize the chances of an 10 optimal outcome. 8 in response, several centers have presented frameworks for the management 11 of neurosurgical patients presenting during the covid-19 pandemic. [8] [9] [10] [11] additionally, a triage 12 scoring system has been previously developed in an attempt to guide spine surgery consults. 12,13 13 however, to date, there has not been a systematic, multi-institutional scoring system that 14 includes resource availability and disease burden to aid in triaging spine surgery patients during 15 this crisis. though certain symptoms referable to chronic spinal conditions may not necessarily 16 be life threatening, these can cause significant pain and disability prompting the challenge of 17 determining who and when to operate in times of crises. 18 19 it is recognized that effective triaging of these cases in the post-covid era will be essential to 20 prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed by the backlog of elective spinal cases 21 that have been deferred because of the covid-19 pandemic. [14] [15] [16] recently, a scoring system 22 aimed at triaging such cases has been published in the general surgery literature, 17 however no 23 comparable system has been described for spine patients. here we present an applicable example 24 of such a system assembled based upon input by a multi-institutional collaboration. this scoring 25 system is designed to assist in two ways. first, it may assist spine surgeons and administrators 26 with triaging surgical patients during the covid-19 pandemic. second, the scoring system may 27 help health systems triage elective cases in the post-covid crisis, which is likely to also see a 28 relative shortage of surgical resources and has been described by some as a potential collateral 29 pandemic. 15 30 31 methods 32 scoring system development 33 to generate this scoring system, the first author proposed an a priori scale highlighting those 34 elements thought to be pertinent to the triaging of an operative spine patient in the setting of 35 limited resources. the elements applicable to the spine patient included the patient's current 36 neurological status (rapidity of progressive, severity), the presence of underlying spinal 37 instability, and radiographic evidence of neural element compression. several general elements 38 were added that could be used to triage any surgical patient, including general patient 39 health/comorbidities, expected resource utilization, current resource availability, and local 40 disease burden. medical comorbidities were pulled from the charlson comorbidity index 18 and 41 from previously published series describing comorbidities associated with increased symptom 42 severity in patients infected with the sars-cov-2 virus. 2, [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] after identifying these elements, 43 weights were initially assigned based on input from surgeons at the lead institution using a 44 modified delphi approach that included both neurosurgical and orthopaedic spine surgeons. 45 component weighting of the preliminary scale was tested using ten example spine patients, 46 3 testing the assessed urgency of the patient as determined by the scoring system against the 47 consensus opinion of the group of surgeons. 48 49 after identifying a preliminary scoring system, a multi-institutional group was convened, 50 including neurosurgical and orthopaedic spine surgeons from multiple institutions with varying 51 levels of experience. a modified delphi approach was again used to alter the weights assigned to 52 the categories to refine the preliminary score. three rounds of written communication, polling, 53 and electronic teleconferencing sessions were used to solicit input. example cases were again 54 devised to test the degree of agreement between the scoring system and the consensus opinions 55 regarding the urgency of the hypothetical patient's issue (supplemental data). the final scoring 56 system was then deployed as a freely available, web-based calculator (figure 1 ; 57 https://jhuspine3.shinyapps.io/spineurgencycalculator/). 58 59 details of the multi-institutional panel 60 the study group was comprised of 16 spine surgeons representing 12 the degree of impairment that their deficit causes in ambulation or the ability to perform 75 activities of daily living (adl). 76 77 the scoring system runs from -19 (lowest priority elective case) to 91 (highest priority emergent 78 case) and classifies cases as "emergent," "urgent," "high-priority elective," or "low-priority 79 elective" as identified in table 2 . additionally, in they have not provided an algorithm for the prioritization of such cases in the setting of potential 106 resource shortages. here we present a scoring system devised by a multi-institutional 107 collaboration that aims to assist with these triage issues. the ability to assist with both 108 populations is a strength of this scoring system, which we feel may be a useful tool for health 109 systems both during the covid pandemic and in the post-crisis period, as they struggle to 110 accommodate the large volume of non-emergent surgical cases. additionally, though we hope 111 such a need does not arise, the present scoring system could also have value in the triaging of 112 patients if a "second wave" of the coronavirus pandemic occurs, which may lead to further 113 resource limitations. 26 such a wave occurred during the 1918 spanish influenza pandemic 27 and 114 many experts have speculated that a similar phenomenon could occur during the present 115 pandemic. 26, 28 furthermore, the framework of the proposed scoring system could apply to future 116 pandemics where healthcare resources are similarly stretched as the current covid-19 117 pandemic. 118 119 prior examinations of triaging in neurosurgery 120 there have been several broad descriptions of triage strategies presented in the neurosurgical 121 literature, 29, 30 and guidelines from the american college of surgeons (acs) currently divide 122 surgeries into five levels based upon apparent acuity. 11 however a large proportion of spinal 123 cases require emergent or urgent addressal 29 in addition to a perceived lack of granularity, neurosurgical triage systems published in the pre-130 covid era have predominately focused on emergent surgical issues. triage amongst non-131 emergent cases has been largely overlooked. one exception to this is the "accountability for 132 reasonableness (a4r)" framework described by ibrahim and colleagues 32 to emphasize 133 scheduling fairness and minimize operating room downtime at an academic center seeing a 134 mixture of emergent and elective cases. unlike the present scoring system however, their 135 framework was purely qualitative -triaging was performed by a single stakeholder without an 136 obvious means by which surgical cases were ranked. another exception is the calgary spine 137 severity score proposed by lwu et al. 12 that assessed spine referrals based on the clinical, 138 pathological, and radiological aspects. similar to the a4r framework, however, this score was 139 not intended for implementation in the setting of a crisis or the acute resource shortages that are 140 expected in the post-covid era. 15 constituted an urgent case, namely a surgical issue requiring treatment within 2 weeks that was 155 not identified in the emergency list. elective cases were similarly identified as all cases that did 156 not fall into the above two categories. unlike the system presented here, however, no formalized 157 system was identified for the prioritization of cases within the urgent or elective categories. neuro-oncology (sno) made recommendations to prioritize adjuvant therapies (e.g. 167 chemotherapy and radiotherapy) over earlier surgical intervention for spinal and intracranial 168 malignancies, as this will decrease the risks posed by hospitalizing oncologic patients in the 169 same facility as covid-19-positive patients. 33 however, the groups acknowledge that this is not 170 always possible, and that care deferral may cause some elective cases to progress to the point of 171 requiring urgent operative management. the european association for neurosurgical societies 172 has attempted to address the question of how to prioritize elective neurosurgical cases through an 173 "adapted elective surgery acuity scale." unfortunately, while this scale provides some 174 guidance, the three tiers it employs are quite broad and there are no guidelines for prioritizing 175 cases within a category or a given diagnosis (e.g. "degenerative spinal pathology"). 34 176 consequently, we feel the need for a means of triaging both emergent and elective spine cases 177 remains unmet. 178 179 while there have been several general frameworks highlighting those cranial pathologies 180 requiring emergent management, 8, 10, 11 there has only been one description of a framework for 181 triaging emergent spine surgeries. 25 derived from the experiences at a single italian center tasked 182 with treating cord compression and spinal instability, the framework of giorgi and colleagues is 183 a care pathway intended to expedite the identification, treatment, and safe discharge of patients 184 with spine emergencies. priority within the system was based upon american spinal injury 185 association (asia) grade and radiographic evidence of instability. though good results were 186 described for the 19 patients treated under the framework, the pathway is non-quantitative and 187 seemingly lacks the granularity to prioritize between two or more emergent patients. similarly, it 188 is not equipped to triage non-emergent cases. 189 190 a more quantitative approach was described by jean and colleagues 35 based upon nearly 500 191 respondents to an internet survey, asking respondents to assign an urgency score to each of nine 192 hypothetical cases. the authors found mild-to-moderate agreement regarding the extent of 193 surgical urgency for each case (range 22.8-37.0%), however, their "acuity index" was simplistic 194 in that it was based solely upon the perceived case risk and case urgency assigned to it by 195 respondents. case risk was graded on a 1 to 4 scale ("no risk" and "cannot postpone") and case 196 urgency on a 1 to 5 scale ("leave until after the end of the pandemic" and "case already done"). 197 the scale itself did not incorporate neurological status, patient comorbidities, or local resource 198 limitations, all of which are likely to influence the timing of operative management. because of 199 this lack of granularity, it is unclear that this "acuity index" can be generalized to other case 200 scenarios, thus limiting its potential utility relative to the multidimensional scoring system 201 described here. 202 203 204 limitations 205 as with scoring systems published in other domains of neurosurgery, the present scoring system 206 is not intended to be prescriptive in its guidance. rather, we present it as a potential tool to aid 207 surgeons and healthcare systems when triaging patients in times of national crisis or global 208 resource shortages. as with the triage frameworks presented to date, the present scoring system 209 is derived from expert opinions. consequently, the scoring system is limited by the biases of the 210 surgeons recruited and their respective institutions. we attempted to address this by recruiting 211 surgeons at multiple levels of training, at academic centers spread across a large geographic 212 region subjected to varying covid-19 burdens. furthermore, by only including surgeons into 213 the decision-making process of the urgency of spine patients, there is potential that additional 214 points from the non-surgical and administrative personnel could have altered the final scoring 215 system. additionally, in an effort to maximize the usability of the scoring system, it was 216 necessarily simplified and is consequently not all encompassing. for example, the broad term of 217 "new neurologic deficit" was included under the "high-risk postoperative complication" 218 category, however, this leaves it up to the treating surgeon whether this new deficit is "high-219 risk". therefore, while it can assist in determining surgical priority, final disposition should be 220 based upon the clinical judgment of the treating surgeon and institution. nevertheless, we believe 221 that it can be an effective tool for informing clinical stakeholders as to how each patient's case 222 may be triaged at peer institutions. our scoring system is also limited by the fact that it operates 223 on the assumption that the patient desires surgery at the same time recommended by the treating 224 surgeon. this is not always the case and the ultimate timing of surgery must therefore rely on an 225 in-depth discussion between provider and patient. finally, the present scoring system was 226 devised with the covid-19 pandemic in mind. consequently, it could be argued that it may not 227 be applicable to other resource challenging situations, and future pandemics may limit resources 228 in a manner not assessed in the current work. however, we feel that the modular structure 229 employed could easily be adapted to other crises that cause a shortage of medical resources. 230 therefore, the present system may have utility beyond the present crisis and any "second wave" 231 that may arise. 232 233 conclusion 234 here we present a scoring system for the triaging of spine surgery patients during times of crisis 235 and severe resource scarcity. our system was developed by a multi-institutional panel using a 236 modified delphi technique and has the potential to assist surgeons, hospital administrators, and 237 other clinical stakeholders in assigning priority to both emergent and non-emergent spine surgery 238 patients. while not intended to be prescriptive, this scoring system may prove useful as a guide 239 during both the covid crisis and the post-covid period to help prioritize patients with the 240 greatest surgical needs, though determining the urgency of an individual procedure should be left 241 to the operating surgeon. additionally, we believe the modular structure of the scoring system 242 implies that it may potentially be adapted to other crises resulting in an acute shortage of medical 243 resources. 244 245 tables table 1: spine surgery urgency scoring system table 2 : proposed timeframes for surgical treatment based upon urgency score figure 1 . screenshot of web-based calculator deployed based upon scoring system identified (https://jhuspine3.shinyapps.io/spineurgencycalculator/) 0 key: adl -activity of daily living; asc -ambulatory surgery center; d -day; hrhour; mo -month; snf -skilled nursing facility; wk -week â� whether the complication requires surgical intervention or can be treated with nonoperative management is made at the discretion of the attending surgeon â�¡vital structures include spinal cord, esophagus, trachea, aorta, lung, â§medical comorbidities included: active malignancy, age >65, congestive heart failure, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, current cigarette or vape use, diabetes mellitus, history of myocardial infarction, interstitial lung disease, moderate-to-severe liver disease. urgent (e.g. within 2 weeks) 10-14 high-priority elective (e.g. within 6 weeks) <10 low-priority elective (e.g. delay until after covid-19 crisis) key: covid-19 -coronavirus disease 2019 a novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in china clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in china fair allocation of scarce medical resources in the time of covid-19 coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19): healthcare facility guidance covid-19: recommendations for management of elective surgical procedures. acs: covid-19 and surgery. published 2020. accessed nass guidance document on elective, emergent, and urgent procedures letter: the coronavirus disease 2019 global pandemic: a neurosurgical treatment algorithm neurosurgery in the storm of covid-19: suggestions from the lombardy region, italy (ex malo bonum) academic neurosurgery department response to covid-19 pandemic: the university of miami/jackson memorial hospital model letter: adaptation under fire: two harvard neurosurgical services during the covid-19 pandemic a scoring system for elective triage of referrals: spine severity score validation of the calgary spine severity score how to risk-stratify elective surgery during the covid-19 pandemic? letter: collateral pandemic in face of the present covid-19 pandemic: a neurosurgical perspective editorial. covid-19 and its impact on neurosurgery: our early experience in singapore medically necessary, time-sensitive procedures: scoring system to ethically and efficiently manage resource scarcity and provider risk during the covid-19 pandemic a new method of classifying prognostic comorbidity in longitudinal studies: development and validation covid-19 in critically ill patients in the seattle region -case series clinical characteristics of covid-19 in new york city clinical characteristics of 138 hospitalized patients with 2019 novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia in wuhan, china clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with covid-19 in wuhan, china: a retrospective cohort study clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with sars-cov-2 pneumonia in wuhan, china: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study covid-19 and neurosurgical practice: an interim report the management of emergency spinal surgery during the covid-19 pandemic in italy beware of the second wave of covid-19 a year of terror and a century of reflection: perspectives on the great influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 first-wave covid-19 transmissibility and severity in china outside hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modelling impact assessment assessment of a triage protocol for emergent neurosurgical cases at a single institution protocol for urgent and emergent cases at a large academic level 1 trauma center is case triaging a useful tool for emergency surgeries? a review of 106 trauma surgery cases at a level 1 trauma center in south africa priority setting in neurosurgery as exemplified by an everyday challenge inpatient and outpatient case prioritization for patients with neuro-oncologic disease amid the covid-19 pandemic: general guidance for neuro-oncology practitioners from the aans/cns tumor section and society for neuro-oncology triaging non-emergent neurosurgical procedures during the covid-19 outbreak the impact of covid-19 on neurosurgeons and the strategy for triaging non-emergent operations: a global neurosurgery study key: cord-299884-wp4ehemj authors: chen, ray zhuangrui; wong, ming-hung title: integrated wetlands for food production date: 2016-07-31 journal: environmental research doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2016.01.007 sha: doc_id: 299884 cord_uid: wp4ehemj abstract the widespread use of compound pelleted feeds and chemical fertilizers in modern food production contribute to a vast amount of residual nutrients into the production system and adjacent ecosystem are major factors causing eutrophication. furthermore, the extensive development and application of chemical compounds (such as chemical pesticides, disinfectants and hormones used in enhancing productivity) in food production process are hazardous to the ecosystems, as well as human health. these unsustainable food production patterns cannot sustain human living in the long run. wetlands are perceived as self-decontamination ecosystems with high productivities. this review gives an overview about wetlands which are being integrated with food production processes, focusing on aquaculture. in order to increase production and enhance production efficiency in modernized conventional food production systems including aquaculture, high nutrient input, density breeding and assembly line production are usually adopted; with addition of pesticides, disinfectants, antibiotics, vaccines, immune-stimulants, and vitamins. however, efficient management for protecting the adjacent environment is either lacking or insufficient, while these conventional production systems also exert harmful effects to the environment (bunting, 2013; wong et al., 2004) . eutrophication is one of the greatest adverse environmental impact of modern aquaculture due to intensification through increasing use of pelleted feeds and expansion of the aquaculture area (edwards, 2015) . almost two third of the nutrients found in feeds are not consumed by cultured fish during growth and released into the immediate environment, with only one third is assimilated by the fish (edwards, 1993) . the residues originated from uneaten feeds, fecal matters and excreta contributed to most of the nutrients that become pollutants stagnated in the environment. both organic and inorganic matters discharged from aquaculture activities, especially nutrients such as, nitrogen and phosphorus have been involved in stimulating phytoplankton production, and in some instances the development of algal blooms (bunting, 2013; jacobs and harrison, 2014) , including toxic algal blooms which may in turn lead to anoxic zones, fish kills, and loss of biodiversity (anderson, 1989; backer and mcgillicuddy, 2006; hallegraeff, 2014 hallegraeff, , 1993 imai et al., 2014) . food production is increasingly being adversely affected by agriculture and aquaculture, and also domestic, industry discharges. pesticide residues have become nonpoint source pollution in waterways which are threatening the drinking water resources and aquatic ecosystems (dwiyana and mendoza, 2006; krone-davis et al., 2013; matamoros et al., 2008; moore et al., 2009; vymazal and březinová, 2015) . ammonia and nitrite arising from degradation of protein can be of primary toxic to aquatic organisms (bunting, 2013; kadlec and zmarthie, 2010; mook et al., 2012; tyson, 2007) . antimicrobial resistance (amr) bacteria detected in consuming animal food products has become an emerging public health concern, for instance, amr of bacteria was detected in oysters and mussels (rees et al., 2014) , pigs and poultry birds (amaechi et al., 2015) , fishes and prawns and also the ambient soil and water ways (sengeløv et al., 2003; silvester et al., 2015; thiele-bruhn, 2003; vivekanandhan et al., 2002; yohanna et al., 2013) . food safety issue has become increasingly important worldwide (blidariu and grozea, 2011) . efforts have been made to minimize the negative effects of food production systems on our environment. nevertheless, there seems to be an urgent need to develop sustainable aquaculture and agriculture in the near future. (klinger and naylor, 2012; stankus, 2013; turcios and papenbrock, 2014) . however, the food production patterns of currently mainstream worldwide are defective which are wasteful, pollution-carrying and unsustainable. hence, the food industries are facing great challenges. this article aims at reviewing how wetlands could be integrated with food production processes via ecological approach, along with a dual purpose of pollution control and safe and quality production. it is commonly recognized that food security is the greatest challenge to sustain human standard of living in the 21st century (un, 2009) , because of rapid population growth, which the increase in global population has been projected to reach 8.3 billion by 2030 (national intelligence council, 2012) . in addition, more than one billion of the present global population of 6.8 billion is under-nourished (mustafa, 2010) . it is envisaged that global food production will have to increase by at least 40% over the next 2 decades to meet the ever increasing food demand (fao, 2006) . the way to feed the global population equitably and sustainably is in fact a great challenge in the near future (hill and mustafa, 2011) . according to the assessment made by the world wildlife fund, overuse of the planet's natural resources has reached an alarming level, with human demands on natural resources doubled in the last 50 years. the wwf's 'living planet report' states that global consumption of resources is 50% above earth's sustainable ability (wwf, 2010) . furthermore, major pressures are exerted on the environment, due to continued consumerism in developed countries and growing affluence in a number of emerging economies. these led to an even higher demand of natural resources (rockström and karlberg, 2010) . therefore, it is rather difficult to ensure sufficient food and water for all to sustain livelihoods for present and future generations (hill and mustafa, 2011) . climate change also plays a profound role in various food production processes. for example, the impacts of global warming on harmful algal blooms may affect the quality and safety of the aquatic products (hallegraeff, 2014) . besides, extreme changes in climates are observed more frequently in recent years worldwide and aquaculture and agriculture are seriously affected by these extreme weathers, such as severe storms, tornados, salinity intrusions, droughts and floods (sutradhar et al., 2015) . rising sea level can affect aquaculture in coastal areas and cause salinity intrusion into deltas which can also affect freshwater aquaculture (edwards, 2015; sun et al., 2015) . although efforts (such as alternative to the burning of fossil fuels, targets and agreement on reducing the carbon dioxide) have been made by developing technologies to assist sustainable development, the rate of development is insufficient to ease the immediate threats of climate change (hill and mustafa, 2011; woolhouse et al., 2015) . water and soil loss, soil desertification and salinization, water eutrophication and among other factors are threatening agriculture and aquaculture in varying degrees. these environmental pressures are aggravating their effects on food production, and the range of influences has been enlarged by overlapping influences. as a consequence, the normal ecosystem functions and services of our food production systems has been degraded (rockström and karlberg, 2010) . apart from excessive nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus, which can cause eutrophication in water, elevated concentrations of a wide range of persistent toxic substances (pts), including heavy metals (such as mercury (hg), chromium (cr), lead (pb)), persistent organic pollutants (pops such as ddt) and certain emerging chemicals of concern (such as flame retardants) found in soil, water and air worldwide during the past decades, are greatly threatening our food production and food safety. despite of the success of many countries and regions of the world (such as the usa and eu) with relatively successful control and management practices for pts, the lack of efficient control and management in this regard, especially in certain rapidly developing countries, making pts easy to spread into environment. this situation has increased the potential poisons to human body by direct ingestion of contaminated water and consumption of food products grown in contaminated fields, and even through skin exposure and breathing air (jane et al., 2000) . for instance, the pearl river delta (prd), one of the most developed regions in china, has become the world's factory for various industries, e.g. textiles, and electrical/electronic products, and rather high concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (pcbs), cadmium (cd), pb and hg in fish reared in fish ponds around the area have been frequently reported (cheung et al., 2008; nie et al., 2006; zhou and wong, 2000) . li et al. (2011) reported a soil pollution status of pts in a newly developing industrial area around bohai bay, tianjin in northern china that relatively high concentrations of ddt (varied from nd (less than the limit of quantification) to 2417 ng/g, with a mean value of 73.9 ng/g), hch (varied from nd to 51,299 ng/g, with a mean value of 654 ng/g) and pahs (varied from 68.7 to 43,930 ng/g, with a mean value of 1225 ng/g) compared to most of the earlier studies in china hu et al., 2005; li et al., 2008; zhang et al., , 2009 in and around the industrial area. exposure of pts to the local residents was associated with a higher risk of local residents' health, such as breast cancer (odds ratio: 1.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.21-30.06), stomach cancer (odds ratio: 1.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.26-13.41), dermatitis (odds ratio: 1.72, 95% confidence interval: 1.05-2.80), gastroenteritis (odds ratio: 1.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.94-2.68), and pneumonia (odds ratio: 1.05, 95% confidence interval: 0.58-1.89). most of these pts are non-biodegradable, and could be bioaccumulated and biomagnified in aquatic food chains, which could then subsequently impose health effects on consumers via dietary intake of pts associated with large carnivorous fish (such as swordfish and grouper). it has been observed that trash fish (small fish without high commercial value) used in fish farms as feeds in south china is often contaminated (cheng et al., 2014; liang et al., 2011 liang et al., , 2012 zhou and wong, 2000) . it has been observed that fish meal and oil derived from trash fish served as the major components of feeds for conventional aquaculture are contaminated with ddt, hg, and even dioxins, e.g. in usa and canada (campbell et al., 2005; damsky et al., 2009) . to produce products using contaminated feeds or in contaminated fields will ultimately exert human health risks, especially to sensitive members of the population, such as infants and pregnant women. various studies revealed that pts play a crucial role in the pathogenesis of some health effects, such as pops, hg with male subfertility (hauser et al., 2003; hsu et al., 2014; mcauliffe et al., 2012) , autism in children due to metal overload (bjørklund, 2013; hagmeyer et al., 2015) ; cancers associated with high loadings of pts in human bodies (cohn et al., 2007; li et al., 2011; steinmaus et al., 2013; vogt et al., 2012) , etc. sustainable development involves the integration of cultural, economic, political and environmental factors (hoff, 1998) . however, cultural and political concerns are often given ways to economic development both in the past and at present. there is also a lack of efficient educational and political guidance in developing countries. in addition, unsustainable living and production patterns have also resulted in deterioration of environmental quality for sustainable development. to produce larger quantities of food to satisfy demand of the ever increasing population more effectively, conventional agriculture and aquaculture developed in the last decades focused on intensive production. many food items are produced in monoculture, for cultivating and harvesting crops or animals more easily. high technological farms use compound feeds, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, hormones and confined intensive animal feeding operations, since they are perceived as the most efficient strategies to maximize the output of limited land areas or water bodies. heavy use of antibiotics in confined animal feeding operations contributes to the problem of amr that would extend to affect human health (morrissey et al., 2015; woolhouse et al., 2015) . 175,000 t of antibiotics were estimated to be produced, used and misused per year (laxminarayan et al., 2013) , and under the directional selection by antibiotic residues, the host animals contain amr strains of bacteria may serve as a reservoir for amr genes in other food animals (amaechi et al., 2015; woolhouse et al., 2015) and drive the evolution of other microorganisms (habets and brockhurst, 2012; laxminarayan et al., 2013) . although antimicrobial peptides which have been proposed as a promising new class of antimicrobials and been applied as feed additives (kogut et al., 2013; yu et al., 2013) , the new study provided the first evidence that evolved resistance to a therapeutic antimicrobial peptides can provide cross-resistance to a human immunity peptide (habets and brockhurst, 2012) . amr has become a global environmental problem similar to climate change (woolhouse et al., 2015) . high fertilizer levels applied to enhance production or exploit the productive potential of crops for continuous production had resulted in an imbalanced soil nutrients and heavy use of pesticides (richter et al., 2015; ng et al., 2014) , due to the increased yield is more susceptible to pests, and pesticides are generally used for pest control. on the other hand the natural enemies of pests are also susceptible to pesticides, which in turn, leading to more usage of pesticides. nutrient loss through runoff is also a problem, and it has been reported that non-point source pollution from agriculture accounts for 60-80% of the nutrient loading to rivers and lakes (min and jiao, 2002) , and high nitrate concentrations in drinking water has been associated with methemoglobinemia and consequential cyanosis in infants (fan and steinberg, 1996) . the pesticides used for reducing pests and weeds in conventional farms, together with the surplus of chemical fertilizer have led to negative impacts, causing biodiversity loss and eutrophication (chau et al., 2015; hortle and bush, 2003; richter et al., 2015) , and even threats to human health (hu et al., 2015; jones et al., 2015; lebov et al., 2016; rauh et al., 2011) . there are signs of using less pesticides recently (moore et al., 2009; o'geen et al., 2010; vymazal and březinová, 2015) , but such actions have led to serious crop yield reductions (oerke, 2006; oerke et al., 1994) . compound feeds with high protein contents used to accelerate the growth of food animals without efficient methods to treat the residues are known to cause ecological hazards (edwards, 2015; zhang and fang, 2006) . approximately 5.44 t of nitrogen and 0.86 t of phosphorus (per hectare) are released to the environment, from intensive striped catfish farming (bosma et al., 2009; de silva et al., 2010; phuong et al., 2010) . these high-efficient conventional food production patterns which exploit the potential production, without sufficient concern about the negative impacts on the long-term ecological and human health, are unsustainable to our planet. the more production we achieved, the more natural resources are exploited, leading to higher impacts on ecological and human health. fortunately, some sustainable production techniques are becoming popular to ratify the conventional production systems: sustainable agriculture/ aquaculture, organic farming (paull, 2015) , regenerative agriculture, biodynamics farming and permaculture (koepf, 2014; nandal and kumari, 2015; olsen, 2014; poincelot, 2012; rhodes, 2012; paull, 2015) , all aiming at sustainable production, paying more attention to the balance of nature resources and human activities in food production, utilizing regenerative production resources, and producing safer food with less impacts on the ecosystem. there seems to be an urgent need to produce safe and quality food, which is environmental friendly. to achieve this, it is necessary to explore possibilities by means of technological innovation, and reformation of production patterns, based on the combination of suitable technologies and efficient management methods. in nature, all the materials can be cycled and used. however, over exploitation of resources and the amount and types of waste generated by human beings have disturbed the natural balance. hence, facilitating certain wastes as resources in food production is an essential key to sustainable development. proper treatment and disposal of an ever increasing amount of food wastes generated from densely populated cities such as hong kong is a recent environmental concern. recycling food wastes into feeds to ensure safe and quality fish production seems to be feasible, which could also partially ease disposal pressure and save natural resources (cheng et al., 2014) . water plays a significant role in food production, especially in aquaculture. however, water is also the major medium for diffusion of pts, introducing pts into fish farms, affecting the culture fish, and also discharging pts from farms and impose negative environmental impacts (amaraneni, 2006; an et al., 2006; fatta et al., 2007; rouff et al., 2013) . thus, water quality and management of water are major keys linking to safe and quality fish production, which is environmentally friendly. known as "earth's kidneys" for their purification capacity, wetlands are indispensable components of the earth's ecosystem. they are also among the most important natural habitats that support biodiversity and provide subsistence for humans. despite the fact that wetlands occupy only 6% of the earth's surface, they support approximately 20% of all living organisms on earth (zhao and song, 2004) . with the annual production value of 45-160 times (product value in terms of dollar value) of farmland ecosystems, wetlands are in fact the most productive ecosystem (zhang, 2001) . many wetlands are used for food production, for instance, mariculture, pond aquaculture, and plantation of crops. there exists great potential for integrating different food production systems into wetlands, in order to enhance sustainable food production, taking advantage of its ecological multifunction. these functions includes water conservation, runoff regulation (beutel et al., 2013; lizotte et al., 2012; ludwig and wright, 2015) , peat accumulation, carbon sequestration (kleinen et al., 2012; tuittila et al., 2013) , pollution purification, toxic substance transformation (paing et al., 2015; sudarsan et al., 2015; vymazal and březinová, 2015) , and disaster prevention for both droughts and floods wassens et al., 2011) . some wetlands are used for or linkage to different types of food production, based on their unique characteristics. studies show that wetlands integrated with other systems for food production processes are able to achieve more sustainable food production (please refer to cases below for details). 2.1. cases of integrating wetlands for food production 2.1.1. integrated wetlands with animals wetlands, like paddy fields and cane shoots (zizania latifolia (griseb)) fields are artificial surface flow systems, generally consisting of water on the surface, with cultivated commercial aquatic crops. higher economic benefits have been achieved through ecological approaches via integrating with appropriate animals in these modified flooded fields. rice-duck (wang et al., 2003; yang et al., 2004; zhen et al., 2007) , rice-fish (cruz et al., 1992; suloma and ogata, 2006) , rice-crab (yan et al., 2014) , and rice-prawn (nair et al., 2013) farming commonly practiced in asian countries are recognized as sustainable systems using less fertilizer and pesticide. the paddy fields or cane shoot fields provide shades, shelters and organic matters for the animals, which in turn oxygenate the soil and water, consume pests and favor nutrient recycling. these animals, especially the fish and duck are also viewed as a tool within an integrated pest management (ipm) system to make the agricultural activities more sustainable and environmentally friendly. berg (2001) reported that approximately 65% of pesticides was decreased by the benefit of ipm on rice-fish farms during 3 years, whereas non-ipm farms had increased the amount of pesticides used by 40%. these farming patterns help the farmers to increase the revenue by limited fields. it is reported that net revenue increased from the rice-fish system over the rice monoculture ranged 5%-11% in west africa (ofori et al., 2005) , 47%-66% in indonesia (dwiyana and mendoza, 2006) . rice-fish farming system has been listed by the food and agriculture organization of the united nations (fao) and the united nations educational, scientific and cultural organization (unesco) as one of the globally important agricultural heritage systems (giahs), with qingtian county of zhejiang province of china selected as a pilot conservation site (lu and li, 2006) . rice-fish farming has been practiced more than 1700 years in china and the practices in other countries only began after the mid-nineteenth century (java), mostly in the last century (such as japan, thailand) (little et al., 1996) , and african countries in recent years (such as egypt, nigeria) (ofori et al., 2005; suloma and ogata, 2006) . similar to rice-fish farming, rice-duck, rice-crab, rice-prawn farming makes use of the symbiotic relationship between paddy fields and animals to more effectively utilize nutrients and energy, reduce chemical fertilizer and pesticide inputs, increase food safety and productivity, and also mitigate the pollutants discharge zhang et al., 2001; zhen et al., 2004) . besides, it is reported that co-culture animals in wetland fields, especially organic co-culture patterns, could effectively improve quantity and composition of soil carbohydrates (nair et al., 2013; yan et al., 2014; yang et al., 2004) that would conduce to sustainable use of the soil resources. traditional low input rice-animal farming releases less nitrogen into environment, but the yield is limited. thus, some conventional patterns are invoked to boost yield in most of these practices (edwards, 2015) , such as using chemical fertilizers, pelleted feeds and chemical pesticides. however, increasing feeds or fertilizer use in rice field would also reduce the nitrogen use efficiency. hence, appropriate management of additional input would be necessary. hu et al. (2013) indicated that fish yield can be increased in traditional rice-fish farming system without increasing nitrogen (n) pollution and without decreasing n use efficiency, and rice yields. this could be achieved by managing the ratio of feed-n to fertilizer-n that quantities n input (with a constant input rate of 120 kg/ha). a balance will be reached with 37% fertilizer-n and 63% feed-n, while n not used by rice can be used by phytoplankton or other primary producers in the field that are subsequently consumed by the fish. there are well-developed human-livestock-crop-fish production systems in china, based on efficient waste recycling techniques (delmond et al., 1980; edwards, 2009 ). mulberry-dike-fish pond is one of the giahs (altieri and koohafkan, 2004) and the best known integrated production model. mulberry trees are cultivated on the pond dikes, with leaves fed to silkworms. excreta and pupae of silkworms are added into fishponds serving as fertilizer and fish feeds respectively, and the fertile pond mud consisting of fish excreta, organic matter, and chemical elements is brought up regularly from bottom and applied as fertilizer for the mulberry trees (zhong, 1982; ruddle and zhong, 1988; wong et al., 2004) . these principles of dike-aquaculture have been modified and now widely with many sub-units of ditches and stagnant waters to suit different regional needs (korn, 1996) . accordingly, assorted dike-pond and canal-dike agroecosystems have emerged throughout asia. the types of crops growing on the dikes are often governed by market demand and requirements of pond input. in early days, mulberry dikes, sugarcane dikes, fruit dikes, and miscellaneous crop dikes (such as soy-bean (glycine max), peanut (arachis hypogea), carrot (duucus curotu) were popular in pearl river delta (prd). the principal commercial crops cultivated were mulberry, sugarcane and various fruits (especially litchi (litchi spp.), longan (dimocarpus spp.), and bananas (musa spp.). a wide variety of vegetable crops are intercropping, inter-planting and rotation on the dikes, based on characteristics of different species, and under continuous cultivation. these vegetable crops and also some grasses are planted on all available spare land, including the dike slopes, roadsides, around the settlements, and along the watercourses. those are the fundamental components of a dike-pond system, providing essential food for domestic use as livestock and fish feeds, and vegetables for home consumption and marketing (ruddle et al., 1983) . the fish ponds normally raises several different compatible fish species (mainly of the carp family) at the same time. in this polyculture system, each fish species possesses distinct feeding habits, based on their physiology and morphology, occupying a different trophic level within the pond. there are also other aquatic organisms (such as carps and shrimps) thriving in the same water body. within the same pond, different living organisms are in proximity of each other, connected by nutrient and energy transfer through water. this so called "integrated multitrophic aquaculture (imta)" is in fact a diverse and low-cost approach to waste treatment, combined with efficient ecological management of aquaculture (klinger and naylor, 2012) . the harmonious structure of this system could be achieved through appropriate selection of different fish species and their optimum stocking ratios through the experience gained by fish farmers in the past (turcios and papenbrock, 2014) . in prd, it is common to co-culture bighead, silver carp, grass carp, black carp, mud carp and common carp in the same pond, with grass carp as the principal species, accounting for 50% of the fish. grass carp is the main breeding object which is mainly fed with grasses, sugarcane husks, leafy vegetables and macrophytes grown on dikes or adjacent water bodies and those plant material constitutes 99.6% of fish feed, additional feeds made up food consisting of the fermented residues of soy-bean curd, soy-bean cake, peanut cake and rice bran. the bighead and silver carp are fed by naturally grown plankton which favor the nutrient-rich water. the common and mud carp are detritus feeders which consume excrement, unconsumed food, snails and worms (zhong, 1982) . apart from the typical production model of mulberry-dike-fish pond, there are several secondary production models that coexist with these integrated dike pond systems. different domestic animals, such as rabbits, chickens and goats are reared on the dikes; while ducks on the pond water. furthermore, aquatic plants such as duckweed, water lettuce and water hyacinth are kept in rivulets, canals, and associated bodies of water for feeding fish and pigs. pond mud is used to cultivate mushrooms while the off-season for silkworm in winter and the nutrient-rich mud-bed is also used to fertilize the dike after the final crop of mushrooms have been harvested (zhong, 1982) . the by-products and manures from pigs and chickens are used to generate biogas; and the biogas residues are used as fish feed and fertilizer (jiang and zhao, 2011) . these integrated agriculture-aquaculture systems are excellent examples of sustainable aquaculture, where energy is fully utilized and most if not all elements derived from waste materials and byproducts are efficiently recycled. furthermore, all the living organisms are designed to co-exist harmoniously in this artificial ecosystem and kept balance on the resource utilization and the amount of different species. on the contrary, the conventional fish farming methods are less sustainable in terms of resource utilization. large amounts of nutrient-rich wastewater, containing chemical residues such as antibiotics and disinfectants are produced, together with unconsumed fish feeds and excretion, imposing harmful effects on the receiving environment (klemenčič and bulc, 2015; konnerup et al., 2011; silvester et al., 2015; richter et al., 2015; avant, 2015; tonguthai, 2000) . unfortunately, the area dike-ponds has continued to decline in recent years, given way to factories, residential buildings and other facilities gradually, following the economic reforms of south china started in 1978 (wong et al., 2004) . 2.1.3. "aquaponic" (aquacultureþ hydroponics) system "aquaponic" system is an approach which integrated intensive aquaculture with innovated agriculture technologies, with crops growing in liquid without soil (hydroponic culture). this is basically derived from the recirculating aquaculture system (ras) which recycle water through filters to remove food and fish residues. the name "aquaponic" refers to the combination of 'aquaculture' and 'hydroponic' (chalmers, 2004) , focusing on recycling the aquaculture effluent (which is full of nutrients), through recirculating over trickling filters or other suitable substrates (such as gravel, expanded clay and sand) for growing crops (palm et al., 2014; salam et al., 2015) . based on the principles commonly adopted in constructed wetlands, this technique enhances the purification capacity of the system. as a matter of fact, most of the designs of 'hydroponic' component of "aquaponic" are similar to artificial treatment wetlands, serving as ras for the purification of wastewater, which is connected to a tank for fish culture. some cash crops including fruits, ornamental flowers, culinary or medicinal herbs and vegetables are grown instead of aquatic plants. the basic components of "aquaponics" system consist of a fish culture tank, a settleable component for suspended solids removal, a biofilter, and a hydroponic component, with the latter three usually combined (rakocy and hargreaves, 1993; rakocy, 2012; tyson et al., 2011) . although "aquaponics" system may involve high capital and operating costs, even higher energy inputs than the conventional pond and cage cultures (edwards, 2015) , it is an ideal setup to reduce water pollution and eutrophication derived from aquaculture effluent. it has been noted that integrated use of renewable energy such as solar, wind, and biogas energy could reduce the energy cost which is supposed to be the prime operation cost after the construction of aquaponics system (gigliona, 2015; mohamad et al., 2013; olafs, 2014) . increasing the variety of products and overall productivity of "aquaponics" system could ease the cost and enhance the practicability of this technology. it has been suggested to combine algal culture, aquaculture and aquaponics together (chalmers, 2004; nuttle, 2003) . in this system, quails produce eggs and meats and their manures are used to supply nutrients needed for algal culture. tilapia are used to consume surplus micro-algae and are supplied as food. manure derived from the cultured fish, effluent and algal water serve as fertilizers for the nearby aquaponic crops, without any disease problems. algae are harvested weekly and manufactured for commercial end users. these new economic possibilities are attractive to inland farms in arid regions and water-limited farms in other regions, since it is basically a water re-use system (diver, 2000; graber and junge, 2009; nichols and savidov, 2011) . "aquaponic" has become a fastgrowing industry in australia (lennard, 2004) , as the lack of freshwater is a major limit for aquaculture. constructed treatment wetland (ctw) is an artificial wetland which is able to utilize natural functions of vegetation, soil, and microorganisms for treating wastewater, including municipal or domestic sewage, industrial and agriculture wastewater, landfill leachate, and stormwater runoff, which has been proven to be a well-established and cost-effective method (turcios and papenbrock, 2014; webb et al., 2012) . it is regarded as a low cost, and a low carbon method for wastewater treatment and has been applied in food production processes. for instances: ctws have been used to treat the wastewater from animal husbandry (hammer et al., 1993; lee et al., 2014; niu et al., 2015) and aquaculture (lin et al., 2002a; schwartz and boyd, 1995) , and non-point source pollution from agriculture (o'geen et al., 2010) . it has also been applied to lower heavy metal bioaccumulation (cheng et al., 2002; guittonny-philippe et al., 2014; yadav et al., 2012) , and mitigate the use of hazardous pesticides (kohler et al., 2004; krone-davis et al., 2013; vymazal and březinová, 2015) . a simple integration of ctw into a recirculating hatchery was conducted by buřič et al. (buřič et al., 2015) in the czech republic that different from traditional rass which generally involve specialized technologies, such as microsieve filtration, ozonization, and uv sterilization (azaizeh et al., 2013; good et al., 2011; sharrer et al., 2010; terjesen et al., 2013) . this study indicated that ctw integration has the potential to increase production (potential final biomass with cw use was estimated to be 40% greater than without cw use) of a recirculating hatchery without added operational or environmental costs. for mariculture, webb et al. (2012) demonstrated that ctws planted with salicornia spp. for the treatment of effluents from land-based intensive marine aquaculture farms, and salicornia can be sold as an agricultural crop. however, it requires a relatively extensive area to build ctw systems sufficient for effluent treatment (starkl et al., 2015) . in order to remove major pollutants from catfish, shrimp and milkfish pond effluents, a ctw with the size of 0.7-2.7 times the pond area for treating the polluted fishpond effluents would be needed (lin et al., 2002a; schwartz and boyd, 1995) , with the following hydraulic conditions: a low hydraulic loading rate (hlr) ranging 0.018-0.135 m day à 1 (lin et al., 2002a (lin et al., , 2002b , and a long hydraulic retention time (hrt) ranging 1-12.8 days (sansanayuth et al., 1996; schwartz and boyd, 1995) . according to shpigel et al. (2013) , about 10,000 m 2 of ctw with salicornia are required to remove nitrogen and total suspended solids produced from 900 kg of 45% crude protein fish feed (11 m2 kg à 1 of feed) during one year. nevertheless, most of the food production systems lack spared land to build a sufficiently large ctw. hence, to integrate ctws with food production systems more compact designs would be essential, especially turning ctws into food production fields would be more practical than single function of wastewater treatment. different from the ctws that build on land, agriculture in water is implemented on water surface, using it as a culture medium for agriculture. this method called "chinampa" in the early agriculture in mexico while the aztecs cultivated agriculture islands as early as 1150-1350 bc. plants are cultivated on stationary islands (by staking mud, lake sediment, and decaying vegetation out of the shallow lake bed and fencing in the rectangle with wattle) or movable islands (artificial floating islands, also called "floating gardens") in lake shallows. the build-up layers of vegetation are raised 50 cm above the water level, making the chinampas like sponges of organic earth that achieved the effective use of water surround them (ruiz et al., 2014) . waste materials dredged from canals and surrounding cities were used to irrigate the plants. flood tolerant trees are often planted at the corners to secure the chinampas (turcios and papenbrock, 2014) . fish are raised in the canals forming islands in proximity, and the sedimentary waste from fish is collected to fertilize the crops planted on the islands. these chinampas produce very high crop yields with four or up to seven harvests a year (tuerenhout, 2005; turcios and papenbrock, 2014) . a new floating garden technology is developed in bangladesh (irfanullah et al., 2011) , to allow farmers who live in areas covered by water during wet season to grow food on flooded land. water hyacinth and bamboos are used to construct rafts as floating bodies, soil and cattle manure are placed on the surface of the rafts, with vegetables planted in the soil. new rafts would need to be built every year, and the old ones can be used as fertilizer during the dry season. gourd (lagenaria spp.), okra (abelmoschus spp.), groundnut (arachis spp.) and leafy vegetables are grown organically in these floating gardens and provided vital food and income for the poor people in developing countries. floating island is a new ecological treatment technique for wastewater enriched with nutrients. it can also be used as floating garden but different in the use of modern floating body and culture medium (such as polystyrene, haycite, roseite, etc.) (dai et al., 2006) instead of fertility medium like mud and cow dung. this technique has a variety of forms and is also named as "ecological floating bed", "aquatic grassland", and "artificial floating island" . besides water purification, it is also used as habitat for birds and fish for ecological restoration and protection, and for developing agriculture in water for food production sang and li, 2007) . previous studies showed both terrestrial plants and aquatic plants can be cultured on floating islands as green food or safe feedstuff. these included paddy (oryza sativa, oryza glaberrima), celery (oenanthe javanica), goose grass (eleusine indica), canna (canna indica), barnyard grass (echinochloa crusgali), water spinach (nasturtium officinale), vetiver grass (vetiveria zizanioides), reed (phragmites australis); the yields are generally higher than those cultured on land . it was demonstrated that levels of heavy metals and nitrite contained in crops cultured in an eutrophic lake (shahu lake, wuchang, china) by floating islands were safe for consumption. however, biological concentration of heavy metals and pts would be a public health concern and the quality of products should be strictly controlled. wetlands provide various essential functions to sustain the global ecosystem, and can be integrated into different food production systems mentioned above. there seems to be great potential for producing safe and quality food which is environmentally friendly, by incorporating modern practices with wetlands. this is especially true for enhancing the capabilities of nutrient recycling and water purification of the whole production system, whether it is organic farming or intensive conventional farming. mutual benefits could be achieved by the coexistence of different components and polyculture of different animal species, fully utilizing substances and energy derived from different components. the composition of the whole system is independent of the outside environment. in fact, it is a relatively closed-system, for mitigating the negative effects derived from each of the production system and the environment. the wastes are contained, degraded and utilized, instead of spreading to the outside environment as pollutants (fig. 1) . integrating wetlands with aquaculture, or agriculture and animal farming through adopting different appropriate patterns are the foundation of the whole system, depending on various functions of wetlands which support energy transfer, nutrient cycling and production processes. one of the most potential benefits of wetlands for integrating usages would be contribution to saving water resources. being an indispensable medium for living beings, water is also essential during the production processes of both agriculture and aquaculture (zhong, 1982) . the integration of wetlands with food production systems would greatly enable water storage and would therefore become more self-sustained, with sufficient water supply for production processes. degradation of pollutants in water or wet soil is usually more effective than in dry soil, as microorganisms are more active in wet than dry condition, with a more rapid transfer of nutrients and energy flow. in addition to external interferences, wastes, animal manure and excreta are the main pollutant sources within the production ecosystems, consisting of organic matter, ammonia, nitrite, and pathogenic bacteria. accumulation of these substances is hazardous to both living organisms and the environment, and therefore effective degradation of pollutants in time is vital to prevent negative impacts on the whole ecosystem. the relationship of each component within a well-established and integrated production ecosystem is primarily based on efficient transfers of energy and exchange of substances (zhong, 1982) , with wastes and by-products from one species recycled to become food or fertilizers for another species. the organic wastes are efficiently degraded by microorganisms, earthworms and mollusks into inorganic matter and nutrients. inorganic compounds in wetlands are able to supply the large amount of nutrients required by algae and higher plants (turcios and papenbrock, 2014) . nutrients are recycled within food chains and food webs involving a variety of producers, consumers and decomposers which are supported by suitable habitats and conditions. in the integrated dike-pond system, the pond is the heart of this production system that produce the marketable fish. the organic residues settle to the bottom of the pond as nutrient rich pond mud, and the pond mud is excavated and used to repair and fertilize the upper surface of the dike that produce the essential inputs for the pond that demonstrated the main nutrient cycling. in aquaponics, aquaculture effluent generally contains elevated levels of ammonia, nitrate, nitrite, phosphorus, potassium, and other secondary pollutants, and also micro-nutrients applied to produce hydroponic plants (diver, 2000) . the suitable ratio of farmed animals and plants and their associated components is important to health and stabilization of the ecosystem that determines the efficiency of energy transfer and nutrient cycling which in turn affect productivity. in mulberry-dike-fish pond system, 45% to 55% is the best proportion of dike and ponds, yielding the highest economic benefit (ruddle et al., 1983) . if the dike and pond ratio is not suitable, self-reliance between the needs from fish rearing and dike fertilization could not be achieved, and additional feeds or fertilizer may be needed (zhong, 1982) . it is known that 20 kg of grass can be transformed into 0.5 kg of grass carp and 0.25 kg of bighead carp or silver carp; while 50 kg of sugar-cane leaves can be transformed into 0.5 kg of grass carp (zhong, 1982) . these estimation indicated that 10 t of fish product would require 550 t of cattle manure, 454 t of pig manure or 75 t of duck manure, and consequently the dike-pond system will become a major sink for manure and other organic wastes (bunting, 2013, p. 142) . in general, there is a lack of effective and feasible governance tools to solve various pressing problems facing food production, especially the environmental pressures. this is especially true for environmental problems due to different pts, threating not only food production, but also human health. large predatory fish such as tuna, swordfish and shark containing rather high levels of mercury, hazardous to human health (especially fetus, infants and pregnant mothers), is a typical example (ko et al., 2012) . changes have to be made concerning the patterns of living and production. inevitably, sustainable development is highly dependent on usages of clean/green energy which is pollution-free and renewable, and operations of clean/green industries which are non-polluting without waste generation; in addition to clean/green community and individual life styles which are with high concerns and feasible governance on the ecosystem preservation and individual development (hill and mustafa, 2011) . this can only be achieved by proper and effective management of all input and output, including wastes of individual subsystems such as urban centers, industries and food production fields. therefore, sustainable management of food production is linked to both sustainable agriculture and sustainable aquaculture (hill and mustafa, 2011) . listed below are four principles involved in achieving sustainable food production, focusing on minimal environmental disturbance and safe food production management (fig. 2) . (1) minimize input of hazardous substances. in view of bioaccumulation and biomagnification of various pts (such as hg, pbdes, and ddts) into the food production systems; the amr problem caused by the directional selection of antibiotic; and other problems caused by the residues of pesticides and hormones, that have been threatening the human and ecosystem health, a better control of these inputs to the food production systems is highly essential. integrated farms using strategies such as polyculture and co-culture are more efficient in using resources, with a higher total commercial income than monocultures (nair et al., 2013; ofori et al., 2005; wang et al., 2003; xi and qin, 2009 ). however, serious problems are encountered, if pts are entered into the production systems, and their concentrations are magnified due to bioaccumulation and biomagnification along the aquatic food chains (scholz-starke et al., 2013; windham-myers et al., 2014; zaldívar et al., 2011) . catastrophic loss of crawfish (procambarus clarkii) was reported in an integrated rice-crawfish facility due to the usage of pesticides for the control of rice water weevil (lissorhoptrus oryzophilus) (avault, 2001) . thus, strict management is needed to control the inputs of pts during food production processes. the use of safe feeds (with low and acceptable levels of pts), and bio-degradable pesticides without persistent toxic effects is also recommended. (2) minimize negative impacts on the ecosystem. this is important to maintain a healthy environment adjacent to food production systems, by enhancing the capability of pollutant treatment, especially the wastewater pathway which is the main pathway affecting the adjacent ecosystem. this could be achieved by effective waste treatment, e.g. taking advantages of wetland and biogas techniques, by improving the structure and function of the food production systems, enhancing their capability of water purification and waste management. for instance, inclusion of the components of hydroponic, constructed treatment wetland or floating islands into aquaculture could eliminate potential eutrophication problems (dai et al., 2006; graber and junge, 2009; shutes, 2001; yeh et al., 2015) . (3) recycle waste as resources. there is a need to recycle all fig. 2 . a concept framework for environmental friendly and safe food production management. wastes (e.g., sediment enriched in nutrients could be used as fertilizer) and byproducts (e.g. food processing byproducts such as bone and head of fish could be used as fish meal) generated as resources in food production systems, as much as possible. minimizing inputs of hazardous substances would therefore ensure safer use of these wastes and byproducts. a good management of waste recycling not only minimizes pollution discharges, but also maximizes nutrient utilization, resulting in enhanced yields and economic benefits. for instance, the mud derived from aquaculture is regarded as a good "slow-release" fertilizer in agriculture with high concentrations of organic matter, nitrogen and phosphorus, which has been used to fertilize the dike and cultured mushrooms in the integrated dike-pond system (bergheim et al., 1993; westerman et al., 1993) . (4) select high quality production sites. the selection of high quality food production site is absolutely vital to ensure safety of food products. currently, many sites for food production, and also water sources for food production are polluted, especially in developing countries, where factories are built in the vicinity of food production farms. thus, insulating food production sites from polluted sites would ensure higher quality production of food items, without entry of different toxic chemicals. for instance, 8000 t of red tilapia was killed in the chao phraya river (thailand) in 2007, due to the clandestine and illegal release of untreated factory effluents (pongpao and wipatayotin, 2007) ." in rapidly developing countries, the main safety risks for a food production system include pathophoresis, raw or improperly treated wastewater for irrigation, entry of pesticide residues, heavy metals and other pts into food production systems, from contaminated soils, water, and air, resulting in accumulation of these substances in the cultured products, imposing subsequent health risks, e.g. autism is linked with body metal overload, with children who have high consumption rates of fish contaminated with mercury (ko et al., 2012) . unfortunately, the use of trash fish for feeding carnivorous fish species, and even the commercial pellets containing fishmeal (also made of low quality fish processing waste) is also the major sources of pts, entering into the cultured products (liang et al., 2012) . in addition, the use of food supplements such as hormones and antibiotics for enhancing fish growth should be more strictly regulated and managed (jeong et al., 2010) , but it is difficult to regulate and manage such behaviors". in addition to adopting safe food production management mentioned above to inhibit entry of pts into the food chains, nonchemical methods should be used for controlling pests and diseases, i.e., biological control (resistant cultivars, predators, antagonistic organisms) or physical control (barriers, traps, manipulation of the environment) (chalmers, 2004) . in this regard, farming indoor would require fewer pesticides and fertilizers, which could reduce human health risks associated with high exposure to agrochemicals, comparing to open conventional farming (graff, 2009) . in fact, isolating the production sites from the pollution sources, such as air emission and waste effluent from various industries is absolutely necessary to ensure safe and quality products. for ground-based urban farming, a minimum distance is recommended between production fields and main roads to reduce the contamination of crops by lead and cadmium (säumel et al., 2012) . suitable buffer zones should be considered as one of the components in these production systems in order to minimize potential harmful effects. there have been public health concerns about the potential risks from integrated animal-animal system recently, due to outbreaks of virulent strains such as h5n1 avian flu, when different kinds of animals are reared in close proximity (bunting, 2013) . in view of this, potential mutation of virus within one kind of animal into a more virulent strain should not be overlooked, as it will be more readily be transmitted from human to human. therefore, the type of animals to be included in the integrated system should be carefully chosen, and the possible interaction between different types of animals grown together should be carefully monitored. however, pigs and poultry have been raised together on farms in asia and europe for centuries (edwards et al., 1988) , and there has been no evidence for the transmission of viruses to humans, mediated by such production strategy in the past. however, when compared to the past history, the outbreak of virulent strains has become more frequent. these included h5n1 avian flu, severe acute respiratory syndromes (sars), swine influenza virus (siv) and middle east respiratory syndrome (mers). this is likely caused by the differences in terms of food production patterns between the past and present. rearing livestock in pens, especially under intensive farming, restricts the activity of livestock. continual application of medications and disinfectants to maintain low pathogenic environments may have reduced the immunity of livestock and enhanced the tolerance and infectivity of pathogenic organisms. in addition, a large proportion of human population is having from many types of unhealthy habits (such as eat unhealthily, lack of exercise, irregular schedule of work and rest, live with oversized pressure), resulting a sub-health condition with low resistance, rendering themselves to become more susceptible. there were evidences of correlation between agriculture intensification and biodiversity loss and possible influences on disease emergency (morand et al., 2014; thongsripong et al., 2013) . thus, researches should put more focus on the therapeutic thought of increasing the resistance first, instead of extensive application of antibiotics and disinfectors. considering the recycling of waste produced by an animal species to another as resource, especially the excrement which may contain pathogenic bacteria and viruses, it is suggested to use wetlands for minimizing the risks. wetlands can treat wastewater effectively, converting animal waste to plant biomass, which can be used as feeding materials for rearing animals. wetlands are known for their high efficiency in pathogen removal (wu, 2008) . furthermore, rotating different plant species at certain time intervals is effective on reducing diseases (zhong, 1982) , and ensuring safety of food products (specht et al., 2014) . agriculture and aquaculture are the two main food production patterns. organic production pattern is regarded as a more sustainable farming system than conventional pattern, in terms of conserving soil, water, energy and biodiversity (gabriel et al., 2013; pimentel et al., 2005) , although it is less sustainable in producing the required food for the growing population in order to satisfy the increasing demand for food, conventional production pattern is still indispensable, but improvements to enhance food safety and environmental protection are essential. urgent solutions are needed to address the issue of pts entering into the production systems, and also waste materials (animal wastes and nutrients) escaping the systems, threatening environmental and human health. in principle, wetlands integrated with food production are able to treat inorganic and organic residues, produce safe and quality food, and increase the variety of production by appropriate polyculture that would enhance the overall income (chau et al., 2015) . the relatively closed-systems are more efficient in maximizing usage of resources and minimizing adverse environmental impacts. multiple wetland techniques and functions would be contributing to these strategies which would also be contributing to vertical farming. the strategies of integrated wetlands with food production are illustrated in fig. 3 . the organic combination of agriculture, aquaculture and wetland can form an intensive polyculture production ecosystem. a good management practice is required to assemble various adjacent food production systems (such as aquaculture, animal farming and agriculture), for sharing resources more effectively. in general, functional wetlands are mainly used to treat wastewater, converting organic waste into inorganic matter, and provision of available nutrients for enhancing crop growth. the polyculture practice can maximize total production and economic return per unit area of land in limited areas (ruddle et al., 1983) . the highly polluted conventional production patterns could be integrated with functional wetlands to minimize the adverse environmental impacts, and enhance food production more efficiently. however, hazardous substances for controlling pests should be replaced by less harmful or harmless methods, for instance, pesticides could be replaced by ecological control (such as ipm) or biopesticides, or even some chinese herbs. use prebiotics or probiotics to replace the antimicrobials, as well their mixture, so-called 'synbiotics' (woolhouse et al., 2015) could contribute to enhance the resistance and well-being of their host, but harmless to the ecosystem (marteau and boutron-ruault, 2002; patterson and burkholder, 2003) . although there is a consciousness that we need to produce plentiful food for the growing population (godfray et al., 2010; pinstrup-andersen, 2009 ), the waste of food in most of the developed areas is seriously and still with starvation in some poverty areas (gustavsson et al., 2011; knight and davis, 2010; lundie and peters, 2005) . in fact, how to feed the global population equitably and sustainably is the great challenge in the near future (hill and mustafa, 2011) . in today, how to eat safety and health is becoming the primary concern for most of the peoples. another hand, how to keep our lives sustainable is becoming a big topic, as our environment has been polluted, the normal functions of our ecosystem have been disturbed, and some of the production resources are depleting, such as the non-renewable phosphate rock may be depleted in 50-100 years (cordell et al., 2009) . thus, how to produce safety food via environmentally friendly patterns would be more vital in the coming future. food production systems with more efficient use of resources such as nutrients, energy, land, and water and less interference from hazardous substances are able to generate safe and quality food, which is environmentally friendly. in a properly integrated food production system, nutrients and energy are continuously recycled and utilized within the system, which is also effective, in reducing pollution emissions to the adjacent environment. integrated wetland techniques (such as hydroponic, constructed treatment wetland or floating island) with food production processes, coupled with polyculture of different fish species or other organisms (such as ducks, crabs, shrimps, and etc.), are able to promote ecosystem health, and achieve sustainability, mainly via its wastewater purification and nutrient recycling capability. the integration of agriculture systems with aquaculture systems is one of the important traditional practices. small-scale integrated agriculture-aquaculture systems are still widespread and of considerable importance for rural farming in some countries such as bangladesh, indonesia and vietnam (edwards, 2015) . nevertheless, some of these existing integrated agro-ecosystems are not completely in conformity with safe food production management, or considered as environmentally friendly. some may lack of control on waste and effluent or without proper waste and wastewater treatment, resulting in eutrophication of receiving waters. some may lack of quality control on the additional inputs, such as using feeds contaminated with ddt and hg. moreover, some may lack of suitable management to isolate the production systems from the pollution sources, such as using raw and improperly treated wastewater for irrigation, uptake of pesticide residues, heavy metals and other pts derived from contaminated soils, water, and air. hence, smarter plans for operating the holistic production system would be important and meaningful in order to achieve sustainable living and industrial production patterns. future studies are needed to provide a balanced diet to different species for maintaining a local ecological balance, finding cure to diseases using harmless techniques, raising overall production, and preventing disease dissemination among animals, especially in regions of different climatic conditions. furthermore, the government should formulate political guidance to promote the transform of environmentally unfriendly conventional food production systems into 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technical prospect of rice-duck mutualistic eco-farming in china the mulberry dike-fish pond complex: a chinese ecosystem of land-water interaction on the pearl river delta mercury accumulation in freshwater fish with emphasis on the dietary influence key: cord-016192-xc4ae7c1 authors: fernando, owen noel newton; rathnayake, vajira sampath; vijaykumar, santosh; lwin, may o.; foo, schubert title: mo-buzz: socially-mediated collaborative platform for ubiquitous location based service date: 2013 journal: human interface and the management of information doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-39215-3_44 sha: doc_id: 16192 cord_uid: xc4ae7c1 this paper describes a middleware platform for user-generated multimedia contents which facilitates visualization and communication of vector-borne diseases (dengue, malaria, etc.). it acts as a community platform, where diverse users from geographically distributed locations can collaborate to seek and contribute multimedia contents of such diseases and related issues (breeding sites, etc.). some of the essential services supported by the system are display of live hotspots, timeline, multimedia and twitter-feed visualization, and location based services for both users and authorities. as a proof-of-concept, dengue disease was selected to build services using this platform to observe its capabilities. dengue is a vector-borne infectious disease that has historically posed continued threats to populations living in both developed and developing countries. dengue affects more than 50 million people in the world every year, in particular countries in the asia-pacific region that share more than 70% of the disease burden [1] . in singapore, there were two serious outbreaks within the past 10 years, affecting 14,032 and 8,287 people in 2005 and 2007 respectively [2] [3] . although various efforts were made to fight dengue in singapore, the country remains vulnerable with an average number of 5, 000 dengue victims reported every year [4] . unfortunately, there is no known vaccination or medicine that can prevent this infection. hence preventing dengue, by destroying breading sites may be the best way to control this disease. lack of information about breading site is one of the major problems in controlling these kinds of diseases. authorities try to be aware about the real situation, but the resources are always a problem, especially in developing nations. several applications have been developed to address this issue by introducing different information gathering and distribution mechanisms. however, one noticeable drawback of these systems is that they are more focusing on a selected subject, hence solutions have its own limitations related to that particular subject. our application stems from a recognition of the growing need to integrate epidemiological practices with health communication interventions -two processes that are traditionally thought to take place complimentary can now do so concurrently. in great measure, this innovation is attributed to the emergence of mobile phones and social media that are transforming the way public health is practiced. to reaffirm the preference for these technological preferences among our populations of interest, we surveyed middle-of-pyramid populations in three asian countries -india, singapore, and vietnam -with a sample size of 1,000 from each country. our survey found that mobile phones are among the top 3 preferred media for seeking health-related information, and that the demand for smartphones is poised to increase in india and vietnam in the coming years. similarly, social media are found to be of immense utility for keeping in touch with people, searching for information and sharing information. these findings, in concert with emerging needs in public health, lead us to identify the need for a system which enables citizens to track disease spread (search for information), contribute to surveillance efforts by engaging with health authorities (share information) and further disseminate health information through members of their social networks (keep in touch with people/share information) using simple mobile phones or smartphones. our solution is an attempt to create a platform that gives authorities awareness about ground situation. the system also creates an interactive channel between the general public and authorities. this also allows interactions with end-users in a structured-hierarchy or a flat structure depend on the situation. hence this solution can be used to collect and distribute large range of data among diverse user groups. instead of asking general public to engage, this platform gives opportunities for them to involve and solve problems themselves. getting citizens more involved in the civic life and health of their communities is more effective in these kinds of situations, especially for resource limited environment. the bidirectional information floors are very important for such issues where it helps to have an equal and better understanding between the authorities and civilians, which will increase the civic engagement [5] in the long run. with the unprecedented growth of the internet and its increasing demand, diversity of standalone applications started to develop as web applications including, health [6] and geographical information systems [7] . in data visualization, map-based visualization is widely used to visualize geospatial data. currently, web-giss are widely used due to its ability to obtain data from geographically distributed locations. hence experiments are continuing to improve the usage of interfaces [8] , and reduce the cost [9] . further, visual health communication [10] is an emerging field because of its ability to help visualize the data in a friendly, interactive manner. therefore, extensive studies have been done in order to create a health based communication platform and use of gis when needed [9] . for fast spreading disease, gis systems have been used to gather information to allow necessary actions to be taken quickly and decisively in a situation like sars [11] . on the other hand, most of the current applications focus on centralized solutions [12] . on the other hand, most of the existing solutions focused on traditional methods, which has limited involvement of the social media or civic engagement [5] . hence the focus of this project is to create a platform for such engagement that can be used for diverse of issues using different channels. building social networks is one of the things that humans always fond of doing [13] . there are large numbers of information flows through social networks under different categories. researchers have been analyzing these contents to have better understanding about the society under different aspects. for instance, twitter is one of the famous social networking sites that can be used for above mentioned surveillance since it has a free and an open network. use of such networks for various domains including heath purposes can be found in [14] [15] [16] . to facilitates the general public to contribute to surveillance efforts in the event of disease outbreaks [17] , we have developed a platform, known as mo-buzz, which is focused on emergence of mobile phones and social media that will help to transform the way public health is practiced. the system is built upon open source technologies and mainly for mobile and web based application which can access through android platform or a browser. android solution helps the main application by running as an agent on mobile devices. the users can report information in various forms (photo, audio, video, text, etc.) using mobile devices. the system also uses sms technologies for feature phones. web based solution is available for everyone; however, it has more features for authorities. the solution consists of two parts, which are interactive system for geospatial visualization and web forms for other details. the solution is developed with the aid of java related technologies, such as richfaces, jpa, javascript, and jquery. server side of this system is supported by apache, tomcat, and mysql. google map api is used for the interactive map while google cloud is used to facilitate android based messaging solution. the overall system modules are shown in the fig. 1 . the system can be divided in to three main modules based on their functionalities, which are content management, visualization, and personalized messages & alerts. each of these modules has set of components that communicate to each other to facilitate attractive features. this component provides the cutting-edge addition to existing pe efforts. the key idea here is to activate the general public to contribute to surveillance efforts in the fig. 1 . system architecture event of disease outbreaks. in this instance, citizens can report breeding sites, mosquito bites and dengue symptoms using their smartphones in image (fig. 2) , video or text (fig. 3) formats. these inputs are automatically reflected in the hotspot maps and can be accessed by health authorities for responding to citizen concerns as well as for initiating preventive actions in specific communities. the process is facilitated rapidly because of two reasons: a) mobile phone-based inputs from citizens are geo-tagged; and b) the mo-buzz system captures geo-spatial coordinates, time and date, and phone number of the contributor. the process of content validation comprises three categories, which are high, moderate, and low. these levels will define the reliability of the contents. based on the reliability level of the data insertion mechanism, the filters are applied to the contents. if the category of the contents is high, then contents are directly available on the system. the content provided by authorities or registered users listed as high-reliable contents, which are fallen in to this category. the contents provided by the unregistered users are considered as low reliable data. such data become available to users that listed as content validates. users under authorities or registered users listed under "content validates" can access this content for verification. based on the content's location, information is pushed to volunteers for verification. after the verification, contents can be fallen into the high or moderate category. if the content is verified by a user under the authority or reliable registered user, the content is ranked as "high" otherwise it will be ranked as "moderate" and will available to appropriate users for further verification. one or more users can verify the same content and all the ranks for the content are recorded in the system. users can voluntarily participate for the content verification and above verification is only applied to some selected categories of content such as photos, videos, and text messages. one main objective of the content ranking is to avoid unwanted, or fraud information reaches the authority. in reality, this will help to optimize the accuracy of the contents and will increase the civic engagement. fig. 3 . report symptom using mobile app visualization mainly consists with maps and forms. the main component of visualization is the interactive map. most of the data in the system are geospatial data, which can be shown through the map. visualization information can be divided into following categories: hotspots are real incidents (ex: reported disease). the interactive map highlights these incidents by circles, which show the incident's housing block (fig.4) . the color of the circle denote by the number of cases reported from each block as explained by the ledger. the visualization of the hotspots is based on the approved data by authorities. the centers of the circles are calculated by using each incident block's postal code. the hotspots are used to provide exact location of the incident to the general public so they can arrange precautions based on their location. this visualization also gives a sense to different authorities about the next emerging incident clusters so they can plan and manage them accordingly. interactive map is encouraging its users (general public) to report about incidents or related information using several channels. users can report this information by sending photos (a of fig. 5 ), or messages (b of fig. 5 ) as shown in fig. 5 . this will help authorities to identify possible important place that need to pay their attention. this will also simulate the reality about different places and trends of the society. system will also allow its users to express their ideas through a forum. application also allows selected user to act as ambassadors of the community or institute. they can also include messages to the system and these messages are considered as verified or reliable information. this system helps to create awareness by listening to the public conversations which are happening in the society. this is another way to get information about the real ground situation. the current version can listen to twitter feeds and filter information based on the user location and keywords. the system will display the associated conversations on the map according to their geographical location as shown in figure 6 . these feeds will offer suggestion to the authorities about the real situation on the ground. the repository of outbreak information based on weather and citizen data is used to disseminate health messages to both, individuals and communities. at the individual level, citizens receive tailored messages based on their input to the system. for instance, a citizen reporting malaria symptoms or mosquito breeding site to mo-buzz will instantly receive a complete information guide on, breeding site or symptoms, and cues to various preventive actions. at the community level, the system will automatically send health education messages to communities/zones (fig. 7) that are highlighted on the maps as possible hotspots. public health surveillance efforts are thus used to generate and deliver health communication messages. at a fundamental level, the system acts as a catalyst between the citizen and the public health system where the contributions of each stand to benefit the other. overall, the intention is to use mo-buzz for efficient and effective risk prevention and outbreak management. in addition to communication modules, the system is capable of sending alerts to citizens living in areas identified as potential hotspots. messages can be alerts, reminders, or any useful information generated by the system or authorized users. personalized messaging is used to disseminate messages to end users according to the message settings. users can select various options in the message registration process which uses by the messaging system. messaging system uses both push and pull techniques according to the selected options. the proposed system always tries to avoid messages broadcasting. instead, it pushes messages to users based on their location, message's priority and other settings of messages and users. also, the client application can pull the messages according its options and user settings. these massages are sending email boxes, to devices through the google cloud or as smss. the developed solution works as a facilitator to manage the information flows between different types of user groups. most important sections of the system are its content, and the validity of its content. since the contents for this system are coming from the ground level and people who voluntarily contribute to the system, the content reflects the ground reality. since dengue is a larger problem at the ground level, there is a better chance to have decent quality content maintained by its users. the civic engagement is one of the important aspects of the proposed system, which is essential when we need to collect large datasets. by going an extra mile, we hope that this engagement will solve some of the small problem that can be ended by themselves (or as a group), without the help of the authorities. system is also encouraging this by maintaining its content as open-content and by providing necessary functionalities. (ex: through social ambassadors, forum, content validates etc.). one of the major challenges of a technology-driven participatory health system enterprise is validating the quality of informational inputs from citizens. selected content of the system must undergo through a verification and filtering (ex: photos and videos) in order to remove unrelated contents. our validation process is consistent in keeping with the core idea of using participatory media and crowd sourcing technologies. in that, we use people (individuals and health systems personnel) as validation experts. if users are self disciplined to provide only related information, then the system can avoid this and get rid of the delay and effort that needs to verify the information. we have created a middleware platform to enable diverse users to collaborate and contribute multimedia contents for vector-borne diseases and related issues. the usage of familiar input channels (such as twitter) for contents collection was made an immense improvement in the system. one of the key points that can observe in the systems is that, except for the hotspots, all other content is from end users. so except for administrative operations, the need of a specific assistant required for the system is minimal. the results obtained show the potential benefit in significantly alleviating the burden of laborious user intervention associated with conventional information gathering. one of the future improvements of the system is to create a better content management system thath will reduce the drawbacks of the current system. the opportunities will consider building a system to prevent users based on various identifications in a misuse of the system. visualization of twitter feeds are also can be enhanced by using an improved filtering mechanism. building on an intelligent content analyzing mechanism will also help to have a better understanding on the ground. another possible future enhancement will be the prediction of hotspot using different parameters. the development of a predictive module will help users to identify danger zones in advance and take the necessary precaution as early as early possible. world health organization, dengue and severe dengue the 2005 dengue epidemic in singapore: epidemiology, prevention and control dengue virus surveillance for early warning singapore scientists find dengue killer in human antibody citizens at the center: a new approach to civic engagement. the case foundation web-based applications in healthcare design and implementation of an internet gis a model-driven approach for designing adaptive web gis interfaces integrating open-source technologies to build low-cost information systems for improved access to public health data mapping as a visual health communication tool: promises and dilemmas a web-gis based urgent medical rescue cscw system for sars disease prevention a framework of web gis based unified public health information visualization platform connected: the surprising power of our social networks and how they shape our lives everyone's an influencer: quantifying influence on twitter social media ownership: using twitter as a window onto current attitudes and beliefs not just for social networking: how brazil is using twitter to better monitor its most destructive disease web-based applications in healthcare key: cord-286858-zbhtl2yn authors: mishra, b. title: tamasomā jyotirgamaya: seeking the self amidst covids’ cytokine cyclones date: 2020-10-22 journal: j indian inst sci doi: 10.1007/s41745-020-00186-1 sha: doc_id: 286858 cord_uid: zbhtl2yn pondering on pandemics and the promise of purification from the plethora of problems that it has spawned, the paper builds on a game-theoretic model of host–pathogen interaction, and... moves beyond. it highlights how quickly this ‘wicked’ problem has led to deceptive nash equilibria of certain information-asymmetric games as well as their sequels of more complex intertwined games at human scale but without an exit strategy in sight. in the absence of clarity (e.g., access to complete information) and yet facing a capricious and complex conspirator, we overview an exemplary solution, created by rxcovea, and examine how it might help. abstract | pondering on pandemics and the promise of purification from the plethora of problems that it has spawned, the paper builds on a game-theoretic model of host-pathogen interaction, and... moves beyond. it highlights how quickly this 'wicked' problem has led to deceptive nash equilibria of certain information-asymmetric games as well as their sequels of more complex intertwined games at human scale but without an exit strategy in sight. in the absence of clarity (e.g., access to complete information) and yet facing a capricious and complex conspirator, we overview an exemplary solution, created by rxcovea, and examine how it might help. biomolecules constitute an important subclass of molecules and are dominated by phosphorous, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, hydrogen, etc. the biomolecules interact with each other and with water molecules (e.g., via atp hydrolysis reaction process) it is important that the "cellularizing" ensembles of such biomolecules-very likely membrane separated from the environmentremain lively (via a sequence of endergonic and exergonic reactions) and safe (maintaining right ph level and avoiding h 2 o 2 , etc.). because liveliness and safety conferred to the cells can be abstracted by a "utility" function, cells may be abstracted as individual "biomolecular agents" competing with each other in an evolutionary game in which the fittest survives and replicates. these biomolecules are also able to store useful information via concatenation of atplike subunit monomers to form polymers (e.g., rna, dna, microtubules, etc.) and, thus, symbolically encode molecular patterns, each with its own utility. such polymers form the symbolic world, in which they duplicate (or allow transcription and translation into other polymers mapping homomorphic patterns) and propagate the information stored in molecular patterns. if the duplication process permits variations and a utility-dependent replicator dynamics and pattern-specific information propagation is unidirectional, it sets the stage up for a darwinian evolution and amplifies diversity, giving rise to 1 3 j. indian inst. sci. | vol xxx:x | xxx-xxx 2020 | journal.iisc.ernet.in inter-agent information asymmetry. thus, not all possible molecular patterns would be uniformly (or information-symmetrically) represented in the symbolic world; only an infinitesimally small subset of all possible patterns would encode viable genomes (dna), transcriptomes (rna), or translatomes/proteomes (proteins). interactions among biological macro-molecules may be described using a sender-receiver signaling structure, where an expressed macromolecule, such as a protein or rna, constitutes a signal sent on behalf of a sender agent (e.g., cell). the signal may be modeled as the threedimensional conformation and physicochemical properties of the macro-molecule. a receiver agent (e.g., another macro-molecule) may then bind to the signal macro-molecule, which produces an action (such as an enzymatic reaction). the action produces utility for the participating agents, sender and receiver, and thereby-albeit indirectly-a change in overall fitness of the organism, and hence its genome (in evolutionary game theory, utility and fitness are treated as analogous). when there is common interest, the utility is expected to benefit both sender and receiver and their selectivity, thus driving darwinian co-evolution. if there is neither common identity (i.e., they are "strangers") nor common interest (i.e., they pose "dangers"), the sender and receiver may avoid each other in order not to undermine their common fitness. thus, antibody: an important part of the adaptive immune system. it is a protein usually in the blood and destroys or neutralizes bacteria, viruses, or other harmful toxins. antibody production takes place in response to antigen. they are members of a class of proteins known as immunoglobulins, produced by b cells in response to stimulation by an antigen. interferons: a family of proteins (lymphokines), secreted by infected host cells to protect uninfected cells from viral infections. evolution of processes encoding, recognizing, and acting against pamp (pathogen associated molecular patterns) and damp (damage-associated molecular patterns) plays an important role in the evolution of the multicellular immune systems. note that not all strangers are dangerous (e.g., symbionts such as corona virus in bats) and that some non-strangers could be dangerous (e.g., cytokine storms inducing activated white blood cells). however, since the immune systems also play an important role in defining many more higher order evolutionary processes: e.g., hla diversity, mate-selection, cognitive processes, culture, etc., our very human intellectual and cultural journey has also shaped our secular scientific understanding of the physical universe, albeit, it still remains inconsistent and lacks unification (e.g., quantum and classical mechanics). the resulting body of scientific literature, however, forms only a small part of our body of human knowledge that relates us to a tentative, though conventional, picture of a 'natural world,' containing both symbolic and signaling systems. as humans struggle with their understanding of the genesis and mitigation of a surging pandemic, initiated by a single zoonosis event in a remote asian town, it is worthwhile to meditate on these connections among the three worlds-mundus triplex, further subdivided and re-connected by such subdisciplines as virology, immunology, epidemiology, logical/mathematical inference, and economics-going from nanoscale viruses to global-scale human societies. or, "must we wring the neck of a certain system in order to stuff them into [] pigeon holes for the satisfaction of the analogy mongers 1 :" do the worlds divide neatly into bruno's three magics-sciences into three disciplines: physics, mathematics, and divine? or does it just model a biological gödelian self-referential self-seeking, selfishly greedy computation, hopelessly aspiring to halt with stable (sound and complete) turing decidability notion(s) of self(-ves)? can it reach an ne (nash equilibria), in which self separates from non-self, decoy epitopes from neutralizing, susceptible from infected, symptomatic from asymptomatic, essential economic activities from dispensable? replicator dynamics allow the signaling game to be couched in evolutionary terms 6 . replicator dynamics arise from the increased replication of players with higher utility (fitness). thus, if a cytokine: a signaling molecule, acting as a chemical messenger released by white blood cells, including macrophages, monocytes, or lymphocytes. the cytokines include the interferons, the interleukins, tumor necrosis factor, etc. memory t cell: persistent t cells that bear a receptor for a specific antigen that was previously encountered in the course of illness or vaccination. it plays a role of a verifier to ensure safe execution of the signaling game. the human leukocyte antigen (hla) complex is a group of related proteins, encoded by the major histocompatibility complex (mhc) in humans. hla genes are highly polymorphic which means that they have many different alleles, allowing them to fine-tune the adaptive immune system-differently for different individuals. hlas corresponding to mhc class i (a, b, and c) present peptides from inside the cell. foreign antigens presented by mhc class i attract t lymphocytes called killer t cells. figure 1 : molecules, molecular patterns, and (pathogen/damage) associated molecular patterns: who signals who? we depict the three worlds, important to defining a host's self and protected by a complex immune system, but amenable to invasion by a simple deceptive virus, which, in turn, can be deceived by a vaccine. we develop a signaling game framework to study virology, and immunology-while we hope to extend the framework to asymptomatic patients, with misaligned utilities, and impaired by moral hazards in economy. we suggest that they all conspire to make the covid problem a "wicked" (difficult or impossible to solve) problem. courtesy r.x. covea et al. cell has a strategy that results in increased utility, then it will increase in frequency in a population. for a sender cell, this would entail sending a signal that may result in an increased utility, while, for a receiver cell, this would entail undertaking an action that likewise may result in an improved utility (e.g., growth rate) (fig. 2) . as already suggested, these dynamics represent a process analogous to darwinian (adaptive) evolution or positive selection. in other words, as part of the innate immune system, sender agent, a dendritic cell (dc), in a multicellular organism that recognizes an appropriate damp/pamp combination could signal receiver agent, a macrophage (m ), to engulf and digest foreign substances (associated with the molecular patterns, amp) in an action process called phagocytosis. the innate system is said to be engaged in a signaling game, in which dc is the sender; m , the receiver; they signal using cytokines and phagocytosis which is the action taken by the receiver upon receiving the signal. their utility is determined by protection which they confer against non-self (mostly danger, potentially posed by strangers) and tolerance for self. since, many pathogens (e.g., sars-cov-2) can engage in deception (e.g., entering a host cell by targeting host ace2 receptorby binding to a site somewhat distant from the ace2 canonical binding site), innate immune system may need other auxiliary adaptive agents to be "educated" ex tempore, replicate dynamically and retain memory. these cells belonging to the adaptive immune system are not strategic (e.g., do not confer fitness along the germ line), but play an important role as recommenders (b cells)and verifiers (t cells) in taming the deceptive pathogens that can grow and mutate rapidly to frustrate the innate immune system. helper" t-cell, coordinates much of the adaptive immune response. a thymus derived white blood cell that precipitates a variety of cell-mediated immune reactions. three fundamentally different types of t cells are recognized: helper, killer, and suppresser (each has many subdivisions). they can be modeled as verifiers in the signaling game. b-lymphocytes are blood cells derived from the bone marrow and spleen involved in the production of antibodies. b cells produce antibodies, when primed by t cells. b-cell lymphocytes can later differentiate into plasma and memory cells. in our signaling game, they are modeled as recommenders and accelerate convergence to a separating ne based on the past memory of encounters. dendritic cell: an antigenpresenting immune cell. they have elongated, tentacle like branches to trap foreign objects. a large scavenger cell that ingests degenerated cells and secretes messenger proteins (monokines) involved in inflammatory reactions, lymphocyte activation, and acute systemic immune responses. the consumption and destruction of foreign materials by white blood cells like macrophages. however, in an adversarial chase, pathogens can evolve strategies to frustrate the education of t cells (e.g., antigen presentation), but can be remedied by costly signaling via dc's maturation and chemo-taxis to germinal centers. it is no wonder, most immunology jokes end with the punchline 7 , "the immunologist says, 'the thing is, the immune system is very complicated...' and the cardiologist says, 'just shoot me now. " we hope to simplify the model by formulating the innate immune system as a signaling game 4 , 6 , which, though prone to deception, can be critically tamed by the education, surveillance, and memory acquired by the adaptive immune system; the education of the adaptive immune system, though highly costly, can also be hijacked by a deceptively simple virus and points to a need for a better understanding of how the system behaves among various hosts (bats and humans with diverse hla types). signaling games signaling games are multiplayer (usually, two players) games with incomplete information: specifically, one player is informed and the other player is not. the informed player's strategy set consists of signals contingent on information; uninformed player's strategy set consists of actions contingent on signals. game is played as follows 1. player s is assigned a type t ∈ t 2. s send to player r a signal s ∈ m. 3. r takes an action a ∈ a. payoff function the utility functions for sender and receiver are dependent on the type of the sender, signal sent and action carried out by the receiver: equilibrium concept behavior strategies for senders and receivers: describing biomimicry by a virus to fool the immune system: cell can be of two types t c (self) or t d (non-self viral): they can send c signals honestly or by mimicry, respectively, and may be trusted or rejected by the immune system; similarly, they can send d signals erroneously or honestly, respectively, and may be rejected by the immune system. courtesy s. massey et al. j. indian inst. sci. | vol xxx:x | xxx-xxx 2020 | journal.iisc.ernet.in α(s, a) = probability that r takes action a following signal s. we may then say that the receiver may acquire a subjective probability distribution over t: proposition behavior strategies (α * , µ * ) form a nash equilibrium iff for all t ∈ t: signaling games in nature to assume reasonable utility functions, we use two natural maps that relate the sender's private information to receiver's action that would be desirable via rate distortion functions combining i(·, ·) (mutual information or rate) with a distortion d · (·, ·) combined using suitable lagrange parameters · : • mapping types and actions into signals: the model of signaling games the game thus involves two players, namely: a∈a α(s, a) = 1, for all s. . a) . • their roles can be shared; s may only have partial information; and r may be allowed to perform distributed actions. • a notion of type, t private to s, is captured by a random variable t whose support is given by t (known to sender s). π(·) = probability distribution over t is a prior belief of r that the sender's type is t. • note that the distribution of signals received by r is given by the probability distribution π m , where: • • and the distribution of actions produced by r is given by the probability distribution π a , where: • • clearly, π t and π a are probability distributions on t and a, respectively. if π t is the probability distribution on t induced by π a under the function f r , then: • a natural choice of measure of deception may be given by the relative entropy between the probability distributions π t and π t : this definition describes deception from the point of view of the receiver. to get the notion of deception from the point of view of the sender, one needs to play the game several rounds. thus, signaling games may reach a nash equilibrium that is stable but not deception-free (e.g., immune system may reach a homeostasis that may not be ideal in separating self from non-self). (1) π t (·) := π a (f −1 r (·)). (2) • if, on the other hand, the game reaches a pooling equilibrium: all types t send a single signal s * with probability 1. • convention and deception the divergence between the objective probabilities and the subjective probabilities induced by conventional equilibria. • solution costly signaling; credible and noncredible threat; aligned utilities; augmenting with additional non-strategic playersdenoted as: m recommenders + nverifiers the possibility of deception (e.g., biomimicry by sars-cov2) in the nash equilibrium (ne) of the signaling game may be the reason why the innate immune system (with pamp and damp) is not the ultimate solution; the ne must be stable, but also keep up with rapidly evolving pathogens. it leads to a need for an adaptive immune system, training of t cell by dc, chemo-taxis, and maturation processes that dc must go through, cytokine storms, etc. therefore, "it is very complicated.." and more so if we need to create a vaccine that must deceptively mimic the virus, which may have been already deceptively mimicking the host system, and the vaccine must be carefully analyzed and regulated so as not to catalyze autoimmune disorders or antigen-dependent enhancement ade. covid-19 poses a wicked problem. "why does the repeated game it plays-covid game-have long and branching chains, intertwined hierarchies, plenty of room for deception, and explosive growth rates? why not use similar features, perhaps, needed in the counter measures to tame it 1 ?-" a proportionally rapid and rigorous analysis of the game as well as synthesis of hyper-local policies (e.g., strategies) addressing molecular, individual, and community-wide actions. for argument's sake, assuming that it only manifests as a socio-economic question, it remains unfathomable what economic utilities might be ethically and equitably traded off for loss and depreciation of human capital (fig. 3) . many of the unknown unknowns are exacerbated by the impacts of unquantified-or unquantifiable-(1) proportion of asymptomatic patients, (2) comorbidities and vulnerability of various subpopulations, (3) co-evolution of the disease in the presence of others (flu or multiple strains-with unknown cross immunity) , (4) number and combinatorial structure of the network of super-spreaders, (5) individual boundedly rational compliance, (6) spatio-temporal reaction-diffusion nature of the disease (e.g., turing labyrinth for herd immunity), (7) accuracy, frequency, and scaling of biomedical tests (separating asymptomatic from symptomatic, susceptible from infected and infected from immune, etc.), (8) unpredictability of treatment and preventive measures such as socialdistancing, contact-tracing, repeated lock-downs, and quarantines, (9) allocation of resources for patients across vulnerabilities, demographics, genders and races, etc. rxcovea has sought to develop and openly disseminate mathematical and computational tools and theories to address these problems with the help of modelers (sdes, graph-based, hybrid, cellular automata), game theorists (signaling games, minority games), logicians (formal methods, model checkers, belief revision), algorithmicists (multiobjective decision and optimization problems), statisticians (bandit problems, reinforcement learning), and computational systems biologists (in silico vaccine figure 3 : covid poses a wicked problem affecting different human organ, physical, and social systems at different spatio-temporal scales. note: wiki defines "a wicked problem as a problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognize. ... another definition is 'a problem whose social complexity means that it has no determinable stopping point.' moreover, because of complex inter-dependencies, the effort to solve one aspect of a wicked problem may reveal or create other problems.' covid problem started as a healthcare problem, but quickly evolved into an economic problem, triggering various issues related to humans' fundamental rights. courtesy: r.x. covea et al. j. indian inst. sci. | vol xxx:x | xxx-xxx 2020 | journal.iisc.ernet.in and drug discovery). detailed game-theoretic analyses in different contexts, namely, germline, somatic, or population evolution, may be found elsewhere 2 , 3 , 5 . (1) 100 nm scale: virology-a task group ("la famiglia"), consisting of salvatore alaimo, eva bischof, jantine broek, ashley duits, alfredo ferro, naomi maria, alfredo pulvienti, and-valentina rapicavoli, has been studying the systems biology of the virus and host-pathogen interactions. the group has been able to replicate in silico-safely, scalably and inexpensively-a large class of in vivo and in vitro experiments to test a substantial number of hypotheses regarding host-pathogen-drug interactions. rigorous statistical analysis, to correct for multiple hypotheses testing, then points to the strategies (possibly involving deceptive biomimicry) that the virus may evolve and how drugs may be re-purposed to enable the host organs, systems, and pathways to counter safely. the group also aims to investigate how sars-cov2 virus achieves a symbiotic existence with other reservoir hosts (e.g., bats and pangolines) and how its genome mutates in order that hosts' immune system may accommodate such a ("pooling") nash equilibria (perhaps, with constrained antigenic drift). another task group ("the gamers") consisting of william casey and steven massey has developed models of biomimicry (especially the ones achieved by sars-cov-2, mimicking polybasic cleavage site, pcs mutations to interact with host furins) that speaks to intelligent and safe vaccine and drug design. charles cantor studies sophisticated multicolor pcr testing methods, tracking the viral genomic mutations. marco antoniotti studies the phylogeny of the genomic strain mutations. tamar schlick with her molecular modeling group studies the structure and dynamics of the fse (frame-shifting element) of the viral rna genome and its screening in silico to discover novel anti-viral therapy to inhibit protein synthesis (fig. 4) . 1 µ m scale: immunology-another task group ("the adaptors") has been studying the host immune system's response to viral figure 4 : target rna residues for anti-viral therapy in the frame-shifting element of sars-cov-2 determined by molecular modeling. a shows the 3d structure of the frame-shifting element of sars-cov-2 as modeled by md (molecular dynamics) with the key residues which are identified by destroying the pseudoknot and/or a stem using graph theory and genetic algorithms. the identified residues are then used in the drug screening algorithm. other identified residues are shown in b and c. courtesy: t. schlick et al. 2 in yacht's simplest incarnation: a user is recommended a pool in which their saliva can be tested within a time interval: if the user selects to be pool-tested and the pool-test result is negative, the user is given a badge (non-counterfeitable plastic wrist tag, encrypted electronic badge or a crypto-coin tag) that lasts a pre-determined period. during that period with the safe badge, the user may be allowed to enter (resp. exit) certain safe (resp. unsafe) locations. if, on the other hand, the user selects to be pool-tested and the pool-test result for the user is positive, then the user is given an unsafe badge-and recommended a uniformly randomly selected pool (hot-potato protocol) and/or exponentially randomly selected time interval (exponential-back-off protocol) for being retested. the user without a safe badge is virtually quarantined from entering a safe region (or leaving unsafe region-which must have sheltering-in-place or hospitals). also, since the subsequent choices of the pools are (by recommendation) independent, if the user is truly negative, they will be determined so (almost surely) no later than a fixed run-length of "(apparent) false-positive" results. if a user fails to be negative after fixed run-length of "(apparent)-true-positive" results, the user must be quarantined. infection: the group consists of james bannon, charles cantor, ashley duits, john conolloy, kelly ganjei, jia han, and mike lotze, and it analyzes longitudinal adaptomic data from patients, using temporal network analysis using advanced combinatorics and formal methods. it is desired, with the availability of adequate resources, to expand the team to study the genomic markers stratifying the probands, who exhibit a wide range of symptoms-asymptomatic vs symptomatic or super-spreaders or kawasaki/misc disease phenotypes. it is conjectured that the immunogenic biomarkers can be characterized by a gwas (genome-wide association study), if certain genomic regions (e.g., p-arm of chr 6) are mapped haplotypically with long-range single-molecule technology such as nanomapping. possible biomarkers clustering around hla, kir, and tlr regions are being studied by a group consisting of marcin imilienski, sanjan kumar, jason reed, and amir toor. vijay chandru and ramesh hariharan are aiming to initiate a similar project in india, which enjoys a more interesting admixture population, driven by endogamy ("the grandest genetic experiment ever performed on man," according to theodosius dobzhansky). (3) 100 m scale: epidemiology/social immunology-rxcovea's third task group ("the labyrinthers") has focused on various epidemiological models and their parametric control using clever (pool-and individual-) testing methods with low latency: the group comprises ved basu, jantine broek, shireshendu chatterjee, inavamsi enaganti, hilary gao, eva guo, mathew jacobs, and kim mishra (for modeling); charles cantor, vijay chandru, manoj gopalakrishnan, inavamsi enaganti, satyajit mahrana, and rohit nandwani (for testing); the two subgroups cross-pollinate intimately. the subgroups started with standard cellular automata (ca) agent-based model for incorporating geographical distributions of infection and easily captures the notion of discrete pairwise interactions, since the new state of a cellular automaton (ca) is based on its current state and the states of its surrounding cas as well as some common evolving rules. the infection spreads from an infected ca to adjacent neighboring cas, while infected patients also recover and become immune to the reinfection. we have assumed the following states for the neutralizing antibody: an antibody that neutralizes (renders harmless) the infectivity of microorganisms, particularly viruses. population exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, susceptible, recovered/immunefurther augmented with such other states as: unknown, tested, vaccinated, quarantined, retested, recurrent, etc., with respect to other sars-covs and flu. rxcovea has also implemented ctmc (continuous time markov chain) and realistic sde (stochastic differential equation) models-the later model obtained using turing's reaction-diffusion equation framework and the analysis of its solutions-e.g., turing labyrinths. we conjecture that the formation of turing labyrinths (possibly further stratified by hlas and cov2-strains) will play a role in the formation of herd immunity, vaccination, and social-distancing policies. these pattern formations can be further moulded by rna, antigen, and immunoglobulin tests (yacht, yet another covid-health testing) 2 , as well as contact tracing (with 1 or 2 degrees of separation) both operated at a large scale with a selected periodicity. the original yacht design motivated by the following game-theoretic model: (i) repeated game: repeated saliva pool testing (involving hundreds of individuals in a pool) using rapid and accurate (duplicated) pcr test is feasible with negligible false negatives and manageably low false positive. (ii) private game/ no intermediary: sample collection must remain safe, unsophisticated, ubiquitous, and unbiased (from self-selection) and, thus, may not involve robotics and technicians. (iii)decentrality: data collection and storage must be reliable, private, and yet not centralized. (iv) factual and counter-factual: the analysis is flexible, hypotheses-testable, easyto-communicate, and adaptive in controlling compliance, prevalence, immunization, and resource usage. yacht's resemblance to ethernet's aloha protocol and pagerank's random surfer approach, especially with small/moderate prevalence, adds to our faith in its robustness. we have simulated a model, with promising results, that partition the population into two regions ("home" encountering both safe and unsafe household members and "work" encountering safe non-household members) and assumes that the household statistics differ from country to country (india, afghanistan, usa, and the netherlands). in the near future, we wish to resimulate the system with one additional region: "challenge region," which may be factual or counter factual (e.g., with vir-immunoglobulin: a protein that acts as an antibody to fight off pathogens. there are five classes: igg, iga, igd, igm, and ige. recombinant and pooled immunoglobulins from blood donations are being used to fight off sars-cov-2 infection. tual viral strains and spreading and testing mechanisms) and allow collection of statistical data for hypotheses testing (fig. 5) . (4) 100 km scale: logic, inference, and learning-the fourth task group ("the model checkers") is a data-science group to delineate the causal structures among various pandemic-related events; the group includes: marco antoniotti, jantine broek, daniel cage, will casey, shirshendu chatterjee, vijay chandru, james edmondson, yaron gvili, stella luna, ramon luna, and larry rudolph. the group is preparing for a near future when massive amount of meta-data, (e.g., involving pools, mobility, and geographic occupancy datafrom foursquare) can be combined with machine learning tools augmented with formal methods to hypothesize and test causal relationship and intervention strategies. since our games include complex subgames involving credible and non-credible threats, monitoring human behavior-without assuming perfect rationality-is likely to play a critical role. we plan to use probprog tools (julia/turing 3 ) to understand the disease etiology, and individuals' strategic choices tempered by the knowledge of causality, time, logic and games, privacy, reputation, trust, deception, and cellularization (fig. 6 ). equilibria-the "open sim," group (including ved basu, jantine broek, will casey, shirshendu chatterjee, and yaron gvili) is studying how to connect components of global data to infer effect of stratification of populations based on demographics, age, gender, genomics (e.g., hla), (co-)morbidity, etc. to understand genuine causal structures only using natural experimental data and without getting bogged down by the bias due to multiple hypotheses testing and simpson's effect. the economic roles played by the disrupted interrelationships among different subgroups (and their possible simulation by digital means, when individuals need to be socially distanced) have a strong impact on the v or w shaped economic recovery. the "burpa group" (comprising kose john, samir saadi, and cheryl qi) has designed a novel market microstructure to enable health t helper cells: lymphocytes responsible for assisting other white blood cells in responding to infection, processing antigen, and triggering antibody production (also known as t4 cells and cd4 cells). a major component of cytotoxic lymphocyte response (ctl), responsible for lysing infected or cancerous cells, and t killer cells (not to be confused with natural killer cells) are a subset of cd8+ lymphocytes. insurance for a patient population (social network) interacting with scientists and clinicians (expert network) to create digital healthcare markets that tame its risks by combining multiple spv's (special purpose vehicles) and securitization (fig. 7) . in a more optimistic future, to which we hope to return soon, rxcovea will focus on better algorithms for randomly surfing explainable ais to create a world-wide adaptive immune system to protect humans and things physiologically, physically, and digitally. the adaptive learning recommenders and verifiers will be able to anticipate and create mitigating plans for future zoonotic events. for now, our collective afforts aim to t suppressor cells: t lymphocytes responsible for turning the immune response off after infection is cleared, a subset of cd8+ lymphocytes. yacht's performance on a university campus with five dorms. the student population is simplified to be heterogeneous with two assumed immunogenic biomarkers: e.g., hla types hla' and hla", where agents of type hla' are less infectious than hla" agents. simulation assumes that there is only one viral strain. a observe that increasing pool sizes decreases the total number of infections while increasing quarantining. after a delay, the quarantined time also reduces. b shows the sir plot of the same simulated system with exactly 15 pools per dorm. observe that the prevalence is easily controlled to below 5%. courtesy i. enaganti et al. provide computational models of host-pathogen interactions that will help to define parameters critical to healthcare policies and methods to control the viral spread-"the hammer and the dance." we hope that optimistic future will also include a successful completion of human haplotypic hla genome project, making it unfashionable among immunologists to say, "the thing is, the immune system is very complicated... !". springer nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. figure 6 : epidemiological model-e.g., compartmental models such as sir with compartments: s (susceptible), i (infected), and r (removed). the diagram shows why the uncertainties in parameters may make the models unpredictable-especially, when population is of finite size. still, the models can be used fruitfully to stress test various plausible policies and affect boundedly rational agent behaviors. courtesy: j. broek et al. joyce' , in finnegans wake: a symposium -exagmination round his incamination of work in progress deception, identity, and security: the game theory of sybil attacks compliance signaling games: toward modeling the deterrence of insider threats evolutionary dynamics of lewis signaling games: signaling systems vs. partial pooling cancer hybrid automata: model, beliefs and therapy signals immunology is where intuition goes to die. the atlantic in mid-march of 2020, spurred by a hypothesis centered around hla-hetero-zygotic advantages of asymptomatic covid patients, we organically converged to form the "cure covid-19 for ever and for all"(rxcovea) group, a rigorous community of scientists, clinicians, ai specialists, mathematical and computational/data modelists, pharmaceutical, public and digital health intelligence representatives from multiple institutions, countries, and scientific training. within the network, self-organized task forces continue to conduct core projects, structured around hypotheses, and minimal viable products (mvp's), mentored, and examined by experienced senior members.special "thank you"s to ashley, charles, larry, lex, and vijay-privately "typed" as friends, mentors, and mentees-who meticulously avoid social-distancing in all the three worlds: the paper has benefited a lot from their signals and actions! the contributions by bm were supported by nsf grants ccf-0836649 and ccf-0926166, nci physical sciences-oncology center grant u54 ca193313-01, and a us army grant w911nf1810427. the contributions by rxc have been voluntary and unsupported. the work of ts (t. schlick) was supported by nsf rapid award 2030377 and nih award r35gm122562 (nigms). the immune system is a host defense system comprising many biomolecular structures and signaling processes within an organism that protects against pathogens, dangerous (and possibly, stranger) to the organism-from viruses to parasitic worms, and distinguish them from the organism's own healthy tissue. it is possible to study the immune systems as a signaling game whose nash equilibria separate two types: self and non-self. the immune system consists of an innate system coupled with an adaptive system: both following replicator dynamics, but innate system selecting over organisms' germ line and adaptive system adapting over organisms' somatic immunological memory. [adapted from https :// morgr idge.org/outre ach/teach ing-resou rces/virol ogy-immun ology /immun e-syste m-gloss ary/]. b. mishra an educator, an inventor, as well as a mentor to technologists, entrepreneurs, and scientists. prof. mishra founded the nyu/courant bioinformatics group, a multidisciplinary group working on research at the interface of computer science, applied mathematics, biology, biomedicine, and bio/ nano-technologies. he is the author of a textbook on algorithmic algebra and more than 200 archived publications. he has advised and mentored more than 35 graduate students and post-docs in the areas of computer science, robotics and control engineering, applied mathematics, finance, biology, and medicine. he holds 21 issued and 23 pending patents in areas ranging over robotics, model checking, intrusion detection, cyber security, emergency response, disaster management, data analysis, biotechnology, nanotechnology, genome mapping and sequencing, mutation calling, cancer biology, fintech, adtech, internet architecture, and linguistics. prof. mishra's pioneering work includes: first application of model checking to hardware verification; first robotics technologies for grasping, reactive grippers, and work holding; first single molecule genotype/haplotype mapping technology (optical mapping); first analysis of copy number variants with a segmentation algorithm, first whole-genome haplotype assembly technology (sutta), first clinical-genomic variant/base calling technology (totalrecaller), first single-molecule single-cell nanomapping technology, etc. prof. mishra has a degree in science from utkal university, in electronics and communication engineering from iit, kharagpur, and ms and phd degrees in computer science from carnegie-mellon university. he is a fellow of ieee, acm, and aaas, eai, a fellow of national academy of inventors (nai), a distinguished alumnus of iit (kharagpur), and an nystar distinguished professor. key: cord-257633-wrem38ex authors: chamola, vinay; kotesh, pavan; agarwal, aayush; naren; gupta, navneet; guizani, mohsen title: a comprehensive review of unmanned aerial vehicle attacks and neutralization techniques date: 2020-10-10 journal: ad hoc netw doi: 10.1016/j.adhoc.2020.102324 sha: doc_id: 257633 cord_uid: wrem38ex unmanned aerial vehicles (uav) have revolutionized the aircraft industry in this decade. uavs are now capable of carrying out remote sensing, remote monitoring, courier delivery, and a lot more. a lot of research is happening on making uavs more robust using energy harvesting techniques to have a better battery lifetime, network performance and to secure against attackers. uav networks are many times used for unmanned missions. there have been many attacks on civilian, military, and industrial targets that were carried out using remotely controlled or automated uavs. this continued misuse has led to research in preventing unauthorized uavs from causing damage to life and property. in this paper, we present a literature review of uavs, uav attacks, and their prevention using anti-uav techniques. we first discuss the different types of uavs, the regulatory laws for uav activities, their use cases, recreational, and military uav incidents. after understanding their operation, various techniques for monitoring and preventing uav attacks are described along with case studies. unmanned aerial vehicles are becoming popular and are being used for various applications at an accelerating rate [1, 2] . uavs are deployed across various sectors including logistics [3, 4] , agriculture [5] , remote sensing [6] , wireless hotspot services [7] , smart city applications [8] and disaster management [9] . notably, uavs are being used for crowd surveillance, public announcements, and sanitizing public places to help in managing the covid-19 pandemic [10] . techniques are also being developed to employ legitimate uavs for tracking and surveillance of suspicious uavs [11] . according to the latest goldman sachs report, by 2020 there would be 7.8 million consumer uav shipments and usd 3.3 billion in revenue, versus only 450,000 shipments and usd 700 million in revenue in 2014 in the commercial uav segment [12] . the market is anticipated to register a compound annual growth rate (cagr) of 56.5% from now till 2025 [13] . uavs are expected to play a huge role in upcoming 5g networks by supporting flexible deployment and backhaul connectivity operations [14, 15] . blockchain and other distributed ledger technologies are expected to enable trusted and transparent sharing of uavs across different commercial enterprises [16, 17, 18, 19, 20] . uavs are also being used for various military applications such as surveillance, target tracking, air-to-ground combat among many others. the us military spending on uavs is estimated to be around usd 17 billion from 2017 to 2021 [12] . for such critical applications, the security of wireless uav-uav and ground-uav communications is a must. security schemes and techniques to ensure essential security features such as mutual authentication and privacy protection, and methods to analyze security vulnerabilities in uav networks are also being developed [21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26] . there is little doubt that uavs will play a crucial role in our future societies. despite all the advantages of uavs, they are not free from security vulnerabilities. even professional uavs, which are used for critical and sensitive applications such as police operations and enemy surveillance have been shown to possess several security vulnerabilities [27] . when compromised, they can be used by criminals and terrorist organizations for illegal surveillance and unmanned attacks. they may be turned off remotely, hijacked, flown away or stolen. [28] . recent incidents of uav attacks provide an indication of how devastating they can be. take, for example, the attack on saudi arabia's biggest oil refinery, saudi aramco. in this attack, uavs targeted one of saudi aramco's facilities and successfully damaged it declining the production by about 5.7 million barrels of oil a day which is about 5 percent of the global production of oil [29] . all this clearly indicates the need for anti-uav technologies. anti-uav refers to the process of prevention of potential uav attacks by either capturing the uav or jamming its communication channel to disrupt its flight pattern, possibly bring it to a halt on the ground. in this paper, we present a literature review of various anti-uav techniques. this paper is structured such that we first analyze the classification of uavs in order to better understand the methods of attacking uavs. then we present case studies of deliberate uav attacks to get more insights into how the uavs caused damage and how it could have been prevented. next, we present methods of monitoring uavs and successively counterattacking them including jamming their communication networks, neutralizing their autopilot software, and more. an overview of the outline of this paper is shown in figure 1 . the uav industry is extensive with a broad diversity. in this section, we have classified uavs based on various parameters to give the reader an acquaintance with various parameters used for comparing uavs. this will help in giving the reader a perspective through the rest of the paper. they have been classified on the basis of weight, altitude, and range, wings and rotors, and their application. there does not exist a single classification standard throughout the industry. however, we have provided our classification based on the guidelines set by the indian government [30, 31] . • nano: uavs with weight less than 250 gm • micro: uavs with weight greater than 250 gm and less than 2 kg • small: uavs with weight greater than 2 kg and less than 25 kg • medium: uavs with weight greater than 25 kg and less than 150 kg • large: uavs with weight greater than 150 kg • hand-held: uavs that can fly at altitudes of less than 600 m and have a range of less than 2 km. • close: uavs with an altitude of less than 1500 m and range less than 10 km. • nato: uavs with an altitude of less than 3000 m and range less than 50 km. • tactical: uavs with an altitude of less than 5500 m and range less than 160 km. • fixed wing: uavs that resemble an aeroplane design with fixed wings. • single rotor: uavs that resemble a helicopter design with one main rotor and another small one at the tail. • multi-rotor: uavs that have more than one rotors. the most commonly found are tricopters, quadcopters, hexacopters and octacopters. • fixed-wing hybrid vtol: hybrid uavs with longer flight time. they have the stability of fixed-wing uavs as well as the ability to hover, take off and land vertically. here, vtol refers to vertical takeoff and landing. figure 2 illustrates various types of uavs classified based on their wings and rotors and table ii presents an comparison and typical use cases. • personal: used for applications such as videography and entertainment. • commercial: used for applications such as infrastructure monitoring, product delivery, and aerial imaging. as uav technology is advancing, it has become easily approachable and affordable. many recreational and commercial uav pilots are entering the commercial sectors where uavs are extensively used (e.g., real estate, film making, journalism). as the ecosystem of uavs is evolving quickly, many countries have come up with laws to regulate the usage of uavs for various kinds of users. the regulations have evolved with advancements in uav technology. certain countries have established certification authorities to certify the usage of a uav in their air space. in this section, we provide an overview of uav regulations in various countries as of september 2020. it is legal to fly uavs in the united states of america, but one must register their device with the federal aviation authority (faa) on the faadronezone [33] website if the uav weighs over 0.55lbs (250g). to fly a uav for commercial purposes, one must obtain certification from the faa and follow the commercial rules set by the faa which is discussed briefly below. our discussion is limited to a few important rules which are applicable in many states in the usa, but there are specific laws for individual states. pilots are allowed to fly their uavs in class g airspace. according to the united states airspace classification, class g airspace is airspace from ground to 1,200 feet (i.e., 365 m or less), often referred to as uncontrolled airspace. to fly in controlled airspace, one needs to apply for special permission from airspace authorization authorities. if one is flying for hobbies or recreational purposes, they can fly within visual line-of-sight and should not do side jobs or in-kind work. the uav owner is entitled to follow the community-based guidelines programmed by nationwide organizations like the academy of model aeronautics (ama). the weight of the uav cannot exceed 55lbs (25kg), ie., only nano, micro and small uavs as referred in section ii-a, can be used for recreational/hobby purposes. to use medium and large uavs, one needs to get certified by a community-based organization. one cannot fly their uav near emergency response efforts and can fly only in class g airspace. 2) commercial regulations: for commercial flying, one is required to acquire a remote pilot certificate issued by the faa. the uav must fly in class g airspace within visual lineof-sight and weigh less than 55lbs (25kg), including payload, at takeoff. the pilot should ensure that the uav does not cross a speed limit of 100 miles per hour (160 km/h), an altitude of 400 feet (120 m), and the flight should take place only during daylight or civil twilight. the uav should not fly directly over people and should not be operated from a moving vehicle. except for the weight and airspace regulations, there is a provision to waive off the rest of the rules for commercial uav flights by applying for a special waiver. as per european union aviation safety agency regulations [34] , if a uav operator wishes to fly uav in european union, delivery through uavs they must register if the uav weighs more than 250 grams or has an attached camera. every operator who is registering must complete training to receive a certificate, which is valid in other eu countries as well. the registration number needs to be displayed with a sticker on all the uavs you own including those privately built. the pilot should always keep the uav in line of sight, and shouldn't fly higher than 120 meters altitude, close to other objects, airports, or above groups of people. the uav operator cannot intrude anyone's privacy by capturing photographs or videos without their permission. eu has released new rules for uav operators which will be effective from december 31, 2020. as per the new system, the uavs will be categorized under the specified 3 categories (open, specific, and certified). the category is based on the risk of the flight. this risk is determined by the weight of the uav and the location of the flight. depending on the flight category a remote pilot may need certain permits or certificates. it is legal to fly uavs in australia. as per australia's civil aviation safety authority (casa) regulations [35] , the pilot should fly the uav only during the day and keep it within line of sight, i.e., the uav should be visible within the line of sight of the naked eye and not through any device. the pilot should ensure that the uav does not fly above an altitude of 120 m and the uav should always be at 30 m distance from people or objects. one should avoid flying the uav near emergency operations, over gatherings and densely populated areas. a single pilot can fly only one uav at a time and cannot fly over people, including sports events, beaches, etc. if the uav weighs more than 100 g, one must keep at a distance of 5.5km from aviation airfields, commercial airports, and airbases of the military. violating anyone's privacy makes the pilot come under the purview of state laws. casa also released an official mobile application, "can i fly there?" to determine whether one can fly a uav in a particular area for recreational or commercial purposes. 1) commercial regulations: those flying devices weighing over 2kg (4.5 lbs) for commercial purposes, has to inform casa and apply for an aviation reference number and fly within the standard operating conditions. to fly outside the casa listed standard operating conditions which are described in the previous paragraph, one needs to acquire a repl (remote pilot license) and fly with a certified pilot. as per the civil aviation authority of the uk (caa) regulations [36], one should always keep the uav in direct visual sight, to avoid any collision, especially with other aircraft. all uavs, irrespective of their weight, should not fly 122 m above the surface. there are further regulations for those uavs with an attached camera. the pilot shouldn't operate the uav anywhere near populated areas or assembly of 1000 persons by maintaining a minimum distance of 150 m from these areas. the pilot should avoid flying the uav within 50 m of any person or object which is not under his/her control. the pilot should not operate the uav within a 5km radius of an airbase, be it the commercial airport or military airbase. one should not attach any payload that can cause damage by dropping it over anyone or anything on the ground. 1) commercial regulations: to perform commercial uav operations in the uk one needs to take permission from the caa. caa makes it mandatory for all commercial uav operations to have insurance. for foreign operators to carry out commercial work, caa will normally be able to grant permission, with the pre-condition that they are ready to meet the basic safety requirements that are necessary for the regular u.k based uav operators. as per the civil aviation authority of norway (caan) regulations [37] , the uav pilot must maintain visual contact with the aircraft throughout the operation. uavs cannot fly over festivals, near accident areas, military areas, sporting events, and cannot go near the 5 km radius of any airport. they should also avoid flying near traffic, people, and buildings. the pilot should ensure that the uav does not cross an altitude of 394 feet (120 m) above the ground. the pilot is liable for action if found disturbing others' privacy by taking photographs or videos. to perform any commercial uav operations in norway, one should register themselves with the caan. norway has divided the regulations for commercial operators, referred to as ro (remotely piloted aircraft systems operators), into three categories: ro 1, ro 2, and ro 3. table iii shows the regulations for each of these categories. ro 1 and ro 2 regulations apply to nano, micro, and small uavs. ro 3 regulation applies to medium and large uavs. as per india's national aviation authority regulations [38] , foreigners are currently not allowed to fly uavs in their country. india uses the classification of uavs based on the weight mentioned in section ii-a, namely, nano, micro, small, medium, and large during their official registration. except the nano uavs, all others need to acquire unique identification number (uin) by registration. the pilot should always maintain a visual line of sight and shouldn't fly the uav 400 feet (120 m) above ground level. uavs are restricted to fly over no-fly zones like airports, borders, military bases etc. the aviation authority prescribes specific mandatory features for uavs (excluding nano category) like global positioning system (gps), return-to-home (rth), anti-collision light, identification (id plate), a controller with flight data logging, radio frequency identification (rf-id) and subscriber identity module (sim). every uav that fly in india should have these prescribed features. 1) commercial regulations: to fly uav for commercial purposes in india, one should hire an indian entity who can operate their uav and that entity needs to obtain the unique identification number from the directorate general of civil aviation (dgca). except for nano category flown below 50 feet and micro category flown below 200 feet, every commercial operation with a uav in india should be executed only after obtaining a permit from dgca. having registered on [39] platform, all pilots should request permission before every flight through their mobile app. based on the acceptance or rejection from the platform, one can proceed with their flight. uavs find applications in various industries like logistics, structural monitoring, automation, and agriculture [40] . they reduce the cost and provide simpler solutions to problems like generating climate data, monitoring borders, watering of crops, airborne inspection of structures like pipes, etc [12] . some of the major manufacturers of uavs in the field are dji, yuneec, parrot, and sensefly. table iv presents a list of popular uavs and their specifications. unfortunately, unlike military uavs, these solutions do not always undergo vigorous security testing, because the implementation of security features increases the product development time and costs, thereby decreasing revenue for the manufacturing company. additionally, enhanced security measures might make it difficult for general consumers to operate the uav. the internet of things (iot) ecosystem has its own set of security challenges [41, 42, 43] . there is a possibility that uav-iot ecosystems providing aerial iot services [44] might inherit the same security challenges. several security vulnerabilities like the possibility of hijacking, jamming of a uav in flight, disabling the uav, etc. have been reported for many of the popular uavs available in the market [45] . since the vulnerabilities are publicly available, this type of uavs has a high possibility of misuse. cyber attacks on industrial facilities are not very uncommon [46] . with uavs expected to be an integral part of the industrial workforce, it becomes necessary to ensure high levels of security to ensure smooth industrial operations. generally, hobby-level uavs (micro and small uavs, section ii-a) have 0.3 to 2 kg of payload capacity. these uavs can carry a payload, which can be lethal objects like explosives and biological hazards. even the uav itself can be rammed into objects to cause damage. although various countries have set up regulations to prevent such misuses, their enforcement is difficult. in many cases, it may not be possible to identify the owner or uav operator who may have been operating the uav from a remote location. hence, having anti-uav systems, which are discussed in section ix, are very important and need to be widely deployed. the following subsections discuss various malpractices using hobby, commercial, and personal uavs which have been classified as in figure 3 . reference [47] provides a list of incidents and intrusions from around the world using hobby, commercial, and personal uavs. additionally, table v presents the risks posed due to uavs in airports, rescue operations, prisons, offices, residences, and patrols. according to the united states national inter-agency fire center, aerial firefighting efforts were shut down a minimum of nine times, and a minimum of twenty uav incursions had hindered firefighting capabilities within the us from january to october in the year 2019. even though a bill was passed in 2015 by the us legislature, allowing firefighters to neutralize uavs that interrupted their efforts to handle fires, and also imposing and creating penalties for uav pilots who interrupted with firefighters, the uav appearances in such rescue operations have continued to exist [48] . beyond firefighting efforts, uavs are known to interfere with airport traffic. despite being small, uavs they can cause expensive disasters if they come in collision with a large aircraft. collisions with an engine, wing or any part of an airplane can cause severe damage. in 2017, a small uav collided with a commercial airplane flying towards quebec city in canada. although the plane landed safely, this incident introduced concerns about the collisions between unmanned aerial vehicles with commercial aircraft, following which the regulation of uavs has increased [49] . a 2017 federal aviation administration (united states) study [50] found that uavs colliding with large aircraft can cause more damage than birds, a threat which the industry has long faced. unlike the soft mass and tissue of birds, most uavs are made of more rigid materials, which can cause severe damage to the airplane's body, or damage the engine's rotors. unidentified uav sightings frequently halt airport operations [51] . there have been multiple instances where uavs were used to deliver contraband like narcotics, ammunition, and cell phones into prisons by flying over the walls. in march 2019, a uav along with contraband was discovered at the collins bay institution correction facility in ontario, canada. the regional president for the union of canadian correctional officers also stated that similar practices were being carried out at other facilities as well. the countermeasures to prevent these further were not made public to prevent exploitation [52] . there have been similar incidents in london, ohio, new york, and many more. uav detection technologies like audio, video, and radio monitoring, which are discussed in later sections have been deployed across prisons to prevent such incidents [53]. uavs can be modified and additional components can be added to use it as a mobile hacking tool. in [54] , a single board computer with a 3g connection and a wifi packet injector was added to an parrot ar drone to create a botnet. weakly protected wifi networks were detected by the uav, their information was sent to the cloud over a 3g network where they were cracked, and finally packets were injected into the network. another instance was demonstrated in singapore, where researchers added a smartphone as the payload of the uav and used it to intercept printer networks, and hence gain access to important documents in office spaces [55] . many uavs have a high definition camera attached to it for transmitting live footage to the user. this has been misused a lot for several illegal activities. in december 2016 in orem, utah, united states of america a uav was recovered with video captured of several people in their homes [56] . it has also been reported that uavs are used to track law enforcement officials to anticipate their movement, find windows, and plan crimes (especially robberies). similarly, at national borders, they have been used to track border patrols so that they can be avoided while crossing [57] . two uavs carrying explosives were detonated near avenida bol´ıvar in caracas, venezuela where nicolás maduro, the president of venezuela was giving commemorations in the middle of a speech to the bolivarian national guard on august 4, 2018. the uavs were reported to be the dji m600 model loaded with c4 plastic explosives and gun powder. though the president was unharmed, some national guard soldiers were injured. later, a terrorist group made posts on social media claiming responsibility for the attack [58] . this shows that uavs are available without regulation and they can be easily used as tools for terrorism. 2) abqaiq -khurais attack: a group of 10 uavs launched from yemen, attacked saudi aramco oil facilities at abqaiq and khurais on 14th september 2019 in eastern saudi arabia. the uavs attacked the refineries and caused large fires, which were put out several hours later. due to this, both the refineries were shut down and saudi arabia lost half of the oil production (5% of the total supply of oil in the world). due to this shortage, the international crude oil prices rose by more than 12% the following day. a terrorist group claimed responsibility for this attack. samad 1, an autopilot fixed-wing type kamikaze (suicide) uav was used in this attack to carry explosives. saudi arabia's missile defense systems in abqaiq were designed against high flying targets and hence could not detect these uavs which flew at lower altitudes [59] . disruption of operation due to fear of collision between uav and airplanes [49, 51] rescue operations disruption of operation due to fear of collision between uav and helicopters [48] prisons smuggling of contraband by using uavs as carriers [52, 53] offices using uavs as cyber attack penetration node to access wifi networks [54, 55] residences and patrols spying by using uav as a mobile camera [56, 57] v. uavs in military attacks militaries have been using aerial attacks for more than 150 years. such attacks were first observed in 1849 in besieged venice when the austrians attempted to drop bombs over the city by attaching them to balloons with a time fuse. after that, during world war i, the american military developed the earliest prototypes which are modified versions of aeroplane that can hit specific enemy targets. advancement in radio control allowed the uavs to be operated in real-time. american designed curtiss f-5l is the first aircraft [61] controlled remotely which made its successful takeoff, maneuver, and landing in september 1924 completely guided in real-time. using similar radio control technology, u.s navy conducted a torpedo attack using curtiss tg-2 in april 1942 during a test strike on practice warship. in 1970, the ryan aeronautical company produced a new uav named bgm-34a, which was developed based on their early 1960s reconnaissance uav model. this uav became the first unmanned combat aerial vehicle (ucav) [62] which successfully launched air to surface guided missile hitting the target. in the later part of this section, some of the recent attacks using such uavs have been discussed in depth. uavs are used for a wide variety of military applications like reconnaissance/scouting (the military observation of a region to locate or ascertain enemy forces), surveillance, and intelligence. uavs are extensively used in reconnaissance missions because of the high degree of risk involved in manned missions. although traditionally uavs were used only for reconnaissance and surveillance purposes, they are now being used for conducting strikes, rescue missions, and for other miscellaneous applications in the military. table vi shows the details of top military uavs based on payload capacity and weapons on board. with recent improvements in imus (inertial measurement units), cameras, and flight control systems, uavs find a variety of military applications and are fast replacing manned aircraft and satellites [63] . till date, more than ten countries have conducted uav strikes. figure 5 shows a map of various countries that have already conducted uav strikes. many other countries, including saudi arabia, india, and china, among others, maintain armed uavs in their arsenals. figure 4 shows a map of countries that have acquired armed uavs. references [64, 65, 66] provides some insights into military uav attacks conducted on countries like pakistan, afghanistan, yemen, iraq, syria, somalia etc. the usa, uae, israel, uk, italy, and greece were some of the first countries to start developing armed uavs [60] . figure 6 shows various countries that have now developed armed uavs. usa and israel are the largest producers and sellers of uavs. america's leading ucav is the mq-9 reaper (manufactured by general atomics), which has served operations around the world for more than a decade. the mq-1 predator, which served the united states air force for more than 21 years retired in 2018. israel's leading ucav is iai heron and is the largest uav exporter in the world, accounting for 41% of uav exports from 2001 to 2011. along with their popular model ch-3, china also developed the ch-4 and ch-5 models. india is a major uav importer. it accounted for 22.5 percent of all uav imports from 1985 to 2014. also, india has its very own rustom range of uavs. the rustom has 3 variants, namely, rustom-i, rustom-h, rustom-ii (or tapas-bh-201). rustom-i has been tried and tested several times (on at least 15 different occasions) and has had several successful flights. rustom-ii has been designed to conduct reconnaissance and surveillance roles for the indian armed forces. this attack was carried out on jan 13, 2006. it involved four central intelligence agency operated unmanned mq-1l predator uavs that launched agm-114 hellfire missiles into the pakistani village of damadola about 7 km from the afghan border.the attack purportedly targeted the leader of a terrorist group, who was suspected to be in the village [67] . this attack was carried out in 2008 september in miramshah in north waziristan, pakistan. this was targeted at militants and carried out by the united states air force uav named predator b (mq 9-reaper) capable of high-altitude surveillance, air-to-ground missiles, and laser-guided bombs. the missile released by the uav hit two buildings and killed militants [68] . the 2009 makin airstrike is one of the deadliest uav attacks since such operations were started by military forces. it was conducted by a us military uav targeting militants in a funeral procession in the makin city of south waziristan, pakistan, killing several militants [69] . hmeymim air base operated by russia has been under multiple uav attacks. it is located near latakia in hmeimim, latakia governorate, syria, which is very close to the bassel al-assad international airport. on september 27, 2019, a russian defense ministry spokesman said that the air defense and electronic warfare systems deployed at the hmeymim airbase shot down or disabled 118 unmanned uavs during terrorists' attempted attacks on the military facility over the previous two years. the first attack on this airbase was on january 6, 2018 when 13 combat fixed-wing uavs attacked the base. for some of these uavs, the control signals were overpowered and control was obtained, while others had to be destroyed by short-range pantsir-s1 anti-aircraft missiles [70] . radars for detection and a combination of short-range and long-range missiles were used [71] . in this section, we provide a preliminary background of wireless communications necessary to understand uav operations, uav monitoring, and uav neutralization techniques. we begin by discussing spread spectrum which is the concept targeted throughout the rest of the paper. there are several basic modulation techniques such as frequency modulation, amplitude modulation and digital modulation. however, such modulation of the original message signal on a fixed carrier wave makes the resultant signal wave vulnerable to tampering and jamming. such a modulated wave can also be demodulated by anyone to get the original message signal. spread spectrum is a modulation technique which protects the message signal from interference, environmental noise,8cm jamming. it also ensures secure communication and reduces the probability of signal detection. in spread spectrum techniques, the original narrow-band message signal is modulated with an independent wide-band code signal. the resultant signal thus has a higher bandwidth and the original message signal is 'spread' over a wide range of frequencies. at the receiver end, the same wide-band code signal is used to 'despread' the transmitted signal to get back the original narrowband message signal, as shown in figure 7 . in the following discussion, we briefly explain four major variants of spread spectrum techniques which are often used in wireless uav communications: direct sequence spread spectrum, frequency hopping spread spectrum, time hopping spread spectrum and chirp spread spectrum. dsss is the most fundamental form of spread spectrum techniques. in this type, the message or signal wave is spread by modulation using a wide band code known as the pseudo noise (pn) code. this pn code consists of a radio pulse with a very short duration and thus higher bandwidth when compared to the signal wave. figure 8 shows how the signal wave gets spread by the pn code. spreading on the pn code results in the original signal wave getting distributed over a much wider range of frequency bands and causes the modulated signal to have a bandwidth almost identical to the pn code. the smaller the duration of the pn code, the larger the bandwidth over which the data signal gets modulated, and thus higher the system resistance to outside interference. dsss systems generally employ an additional modulation through binary phase shift keying (bpsk) modulation or quadrature phase shift keying (qpsk) modulation. phase shift keying is a modulation technique by which the data bits are expressed as phases in the signal wave. bpsk expresses each 0 or 1 in the data as 0°or 180°phase shifts in the carrier wave, respectively, whereas in qpsk two bits are considered at once and expressed as 0°, 90°, 180°or 270°phase shifts. to summarize, in dsss the data signal first gets modulated with the pn code followed by phase shift keying over a carrier wave. in fhss communication systems the data signal is modulated onto a carrier signal, whose frequency is rapidly switched among different channels. a pseudo-random sequence generator passes a sequence to a frequency table that selects the frequency of the carrier wave. this frequency is then passed to a frequency synthesizer that generates the carrier wave of mentioned frequency, thereby facilitating switching of the carrier wave. this pseudo-random sequence generator is known to both the sender and the receiver. hence, as the carrier wave frequency keeps switching, interference in a particular frequency segment affects the overall transmission for a very short duration. additionally, fhss systems generally employ m-ary frequency shift keying (mfsk) modulation technique. in mfsk, each channel is divided into m tones or smaller segments. in an fhss/mfsk system, log 2 m data bits are used to modulate the carrier frequency which is pseudo-randomly decided. when the carrier wave frequency changes faster than the mfsk tone, it is known as fast fhss and when the carrier wave frequency changes slower than mfsk tone, it known as slow fhss. figure 9 presents a signal flow diagram for fhss/mfsk systems and figure 10 shows how the frequency band is segmented in case of slow fhss. for fhss, it is important that the transmitter and receiver have a synchronized timing so that as the frequency band changes over time, the receiver can hop accordingly. fig. 9 : fhss/mfsk system block diagram. spread spectrum utilizes the entire bandwidth allocated to transmit a signal and hence achieves robust performance against interference. figure 12 shows an upchirp css whose frequency increases linearly with time. in thss, the input signal is not sent continuously. instead, it is broken into fragments and sent in pulses and 2 k discrete pulses are used as carrier signals to transmit k bits/pulse. a transmission window of duration x is divided into n segments and the signal is sent in one of the n segments (which varies with time). figure 11 presents the discrete signal pulses, over a period of time. the resistance to interference is achieved by randomly varying the transmission time by pseudo-randomly changing the carrier pulse period and duty cycle. in a strict sense, time hopping in itself does not introduce any spread spectrum characteristics. hence it is generally used in the hybrid spread spectrum with fhss. the higher bandwidth achieved by the transmitted signal in spread spectrum gives it resistance against interference. the ratio of the bandwidth of the modulated signal to that of the original data signal is referred to as the processing gain (g p ) of the system. this gives a quantifiable measure to the system's resistance to interference. the basic idea behind this is that by increasing the bandwidth of the signal we are making it inefficient for a malicious jammer to interfere with the signal. since there is limited power in the hands of a jammer, it will have to distribute the fixed power for transmission of the interference over a wide range of frequencies, thus introducing very little interference in a particular section of the signal. on the other hand, if the jammer transmits all its power on a particular section of the signal, the rest of the signal remains free of any interference. the level of interference that a spread spectrum system can handle and still be able to perform at par with a specified level of performance is measured with the help of the jamming margin. it depends on the processing gain, system implementation losses and the minimum snr ratio required at the receiver for error-free information transmission. in this section, we present a discussion of the various aspects of uav operation such as the modes, flow of control, systems for navigation, and also review some of the most common commercial transmission protocols. depending upon their mode of operation, uavs can be classified as manual, partially autonomous, and fully autonomous. most traditional applications of uavs involve manual remote radio control over the flight of the uav and its traversed path. in this, the pilot tunes the flight controller parameters to adjust stability and maneuverability. the most common method of doing so is by using a pid (proportional integral derivative) control loop which provides three parameters described in table vii . error refers to the difference between the actual and intended values. applications based on manual operation occasionally involve the transmission of payload signals such as video feedback or positional information. uavs in such scenarios can be detected and neutralized using different rf spectrum jamming techniques which are discussed in section ix. 2) full and partial autonomous: as the complexity of operations performed using uavs increases, many tasks are being offloaded to the onboard flight controller. in the case of a partially autonomous system, the controller takes care of the low-level tasks of the mission such as collision detection and altitude control. the high-level mission constraints and parameters such as way-points are controlled by a human operator. thus, instead of human or manual control, the system uses different sensors such as inertial measurement units, pressure sensors, etc. to determine the current state of the system and maintain porperties such as altitude of the uav. on the other hand, a fully autonomous system application would involve a completely autonomous execution of the mission, without necessarily involving the transmission/reception of rf signals to/from the ground station. a typical example would involve a pre-programmed flight route. in most of these autonomous applications, it is necessary for the uav to track its current location in order to facilitate the higher level mission objectives. this is done with the help of a global navigation satellite system (gnss) receivers such as gps. such systems can be identified and neutralized using gnss/gps jamming. for certain, in the cases of fully autonomous applications, it is possible that there is no transmission of signals with the uav, or it becomes difficult to analyze the rf frequency spectrum reliably. in such cases, radar-based techniques are used to detect unauthorized uavs. major components of an uav include propellers, motors, frame, sensors, speed controllers, flight controller, receiver, and battery pack. besides the uav, the ground station and intermediaries needed for communication also play a vital role. figure 13 shows the various components of uav along with their interaction with each other. the frame of the uav is a simple, lightweight, aerodynamically efficient and stable platform with limited space for on-board electronics. the material and structure of the frame is very important as defects in it can disrupt the uav's operation in several ways. a heavy frame decreases the payload capacity, and a skewed frame will create problems in the stability of its flight. uav frames are constructed mostly using carbon/graphite fibers or thermoplastics such as polyethylene, polystyrene and polyether-ether-ketone (peek). a manual uav receives commands from the pilot through a transmitter and receiver working over various technologies like radio, wi-fi, and zigbee based on various radio protocols like dsmx, a-fhss, etc. after receiving the signal from the radio transmitter, the radio receiver converts them to electrical signals in pulse width modulation (pwm) or pulse position modulation (ppm) format. these signals are interpreted by the flight controller whose commands are converted into specific actions for controlling the uav. for rotor based uavs, the electronic speed controller (esc) takes the signal from the flight controller and power from the battery and adjusts the speed of the motors to control the flight. for fixed-wing uavs, servo motors are used to precisely control the angle of the wings which in turn controls the flight. besides the commands, there is an additional transmitter-receiver pair that transmits crucial information like battery voltage reading and radio signal strength to the ground station, termed as telemetry. a ground station is the control center that facilitates the human control of uavs. an autonomous uav has a predefined flight route based on gnss systems like gps or environment checkpoints which can be detected by the camera. the uav can roughly track its position relative to its initial position by using onboard imu sensors. it corrects its position based on visual checkpoints and gps confirmation. uavs operating in different modes follow different principles for their navigation. manual uavs usually receive signals from the pilot, partially autonomous from the pilot, gnss system, and sensors, whereas completely autonomous ones have capability for flight without pilot intervention. this type of communication method involves a human operating a radio transmitter/receiver, a smartphone, a tablet or a computer as a ground station to control the flight path of the uav. uavs using this type of communication can fly only in the line of sight of the operator, and hence, these types of uavs are generally short-ranged. this type of communication involves uavs communicating with a gnss system. uavs using this type of communication are generally long-ranged. a very common gnss system is gps. gps navigation is provided using more than 30 satellites continuously revolving in their fixed orbits around the earth. each satellite has a stable atomic clock which is synchronized with others and to a base station which updates the time with respect to the ground. for knowing the position accurately, a signal from at least 4 satellites needs to be received. the navigational message includes the almanac data and ephemeris data. the ephemeris data has information regarding the location and time of each satellite in the orbit. almanac message include data regarding the entire constellation of satellites.hence, these messages from satellites are used by the gnss receiver to find its location and time using the trilateration method. in system, another aircraft that is always in a definite range of the uav serves as a relay to give flight control. sometimes, the other aircraft can itself be a uav which is controlled through either satellite navigation or remote control. various sensors such as ultrasonic, lidars and cameras are used for sensing distance from the objects in the environment whereas imus are used to track the orientation of the uav over 9 degrees of freedom. barometers are also used to track altitude of the uav. all of these sensors are used in combination to give feedback to the flight controller for stable flight. these sensors are used to implement localization through simultaneous localization and mapping (slam) algorithms or deep learning approaches [81, 82, 83, 84] . transmission (tx) protocols are implemented in the wireless communication between the transmitter and the receiver. a transmission protocol is defined by the structure of its data packets, and the type of spread spectrum and encryption scheme it uses. some major uav manufacturers implement the same protocols across all of their uavs. these are of utmost concern for the security analysis of a uav. some of the most popular tx protocols include mavlink, digital signal modulation (dsm), automated frequency hopping digital system (afhds) and futaba advanced spread spectrum technology (fasst). table viii presents a list of popular transmission protocols used for uavs. the organisations that use these protocols generally the use the same radio frequency integrated circuit in their implementations. this documentation of these rfics can be looked into for vulnerabilities like default passwords and behavior on disconnection. it is worth noting that mavlink is an open source tx protocol and thus has been thoroughly explained in literature whereas descriptions of other protocols are not readily available. this makes mavlink easier to analyze compared to other protocols. 1) mavlink: the micro aerial vehicle (mav) link protocol is a very lightweight messaging protocol used to carry telemetry, and to command and control multiple uavs. mavlink follows a modern hybrid publish-subscribe and point-to-point design pattern. in the publisher-subscribe model, we have a central broker that manages various topics to which clients either subscribe (listen to messages) or publish (pass messages). when a particular message is published on a topic, all subscribers receive that message. on the other hand, in the point-to-point model, messages are sent directly between the sender and the receiver. therefore, in mavlink, data streams are sent/published as topics whereas configuration sub-protocols such as the mission protocol or parameter protocol are point-to-point protocols with re-transmission. it has two versions: mavlink v1.0 and mavlink 2.0. mavlink v2.0 was widely adopted in 2017 and is the main focus of our discussion. figure 14 presents the packet structure used in mavlink 2.0. the data packet has just 14 bytes of overhead as shown in figure 14 [85] . the start-of-text (stx) marker is used to indicate the beginning of a new packet. the sequence id is used to detect packet loss as successive messages have successive ids. it employs x.25 crc as a checksum to verify data integrity. a checksum is a datum calculated based on a specific block of data for the purpose of detecting errors that may have been introduced during its transmission or storage. the protocol defines 1-byte fields for the source device id and source component id. the target device id and target component id are optional and can be specified in the message payload to indicate where the message should be sent/routed. in the end, there is an optional signature field of 13 bytes to ensure that the link is tamper-proof and ensures endpoint authenticity. the signature has 3 fields linkid, timestamp and a unique sign: • linkid (8 bits) -each link has an id in the mavlink protocol. linkid id this just this id and is usually same as the channel. • timestamp (48 bits) -the timestamp has a unit of 10 microseconds and it monotonically increases for every message on a particular link. • sign (48 bits) -the sign is extracted from the start of the sha-256 hash of the complete packet without the sign itself but including the timestamp appended to the secret key. the secret key is 32 bytes of binary data stored on both ends of a mavlink channel. being a very common protocol, considerable research has been carried out on finding threats and solutions for the mavlink protocol [86] . 2) digital signal modulation 2: the spektrum dsm2 technology operates in the 2.4ghz band and uses wideband dsss. dsm2 uses dualink technology that is based on the use of two channels. the duallink technology assists recovery from polarization blind spots and reflected signal fading. upon switching on, the dsm2 based transmitter scans for two free channels in the 2.4ghz band. on finding them, the transmitter transmits it's distinct globally unique identifier (guid) in these channels. subsequently, on receiving the guid, the receiver locks on to these two free channels [87] . in case one of the channels is noisy, the other channel acts as a backup. this lowers the chance of disconnection of the signal significantly. however, if both channels become unusable, the connection might be lost [88] . hence, the dsm2 signal provides additional resistance to noise, interference and other transmitters transmitting on the same frequency. the spektrum dsmx is based on dsm2 and is a successor to it. dsm2 and dsmx transmitter reciever pairs are compatibile with each other. firstly, an important feature of dsmx, similar to dsm2, is the wide-band signal which compared to the narrow-band signal of other 2.4ghz transmitters, is more resistant to interference and a has a higher snr. secondly, unlike dsm2, dsmx employs frequency hopping spread spectrum. dsmx transmitters have their own unique frequency shift pattern calculated using their guid and each pattern uses just 23 channels in the 2.4ghz spectrum. lastly, it uses duallink technology as well [89] . the flysky automatic frequency hopping digital system (afhds) is a digital protocol that ensures two or more transmitters can operate at the same time without interfering with each other's respective communication. afhds 2a is the second generation of the system that added duplex communication capability and telemetry capabilities [90] . afhds-2a supports up to 14 channels and requires manual-binding. it offers options to change the reception (rx) protocol for the receiver, servo frequency, the link quality indicator output(an indication of the quality of the data packets received by the receiver based on the receiver signal strength), and the fine-tuning of the operational frequency [91] . afhds 3 is the latest generation of the protocol and allows automatic frequency hops in the range of 2.402ghz to 2.481ghz. however, depending on the outcome of the initial transmitter-receiver pairing, the frequencies actually in use and hopping algorithm change. moreover, each time the system is powered on, the frequencies and hopping algorithm change as a security measure. neutralizing or alerting. not all of the various approaches for uav monitoring can efficiently do all the aforementioned operations. approaches for detection, identification and localization are discussed in this section which can be classified as in figure 15 and summarized in table ix at the end of this section. implementation of neutralization as a method for responding is discussed in section ix. radar-based techniques are usable in the case of partial or completely autonomous uavs where no radio communication takes place. for detection by radar, generally, radio waves are transmitted, which on reflection from an object undergo reflection and change in properties such as polarization. based on the properties of received signals like the doppler effect and polarisation of the received radio waves, information about the presence of an object can be calculated. doppler radars are able to discard static objects and specifically track moving objects. micro-doppler radars are able to detect motion, specifically speed differences within moving objects. as uavs have major moving parts like propellers which create a large spectrum of linear speed differences, this is a good approach. millimeter-wave radars, ultra-wideband radars, and non lineof-sight radars are some of the applicable radar technologies [93, 94] . in this method, the rf waves coming from the uav are intercepted. generally, a manually operated uav communicates with the ground station (gs) and a gnss for its operation. both of these may be absent for an autonomous uav working solely based on on-board sensors. methods like fhss are often applied for the communication between the gs and the uav. however, for most commercial uavs, an ai-based classification algorithm can be implemented which analyzes the spectrum using software defined radio (sdr) and based on features such as the hopping sequence, predicts the presence of a uav along with details about it [95, 96, 97] . also, based on the signal strength, it is possible to track and localize the uavs. besides these, the uav may be transmitting information about itself like its coordinates and video feed which can be intercepted and analyzed for localization. these methods have a good detection range depending on the transmit power of the uavs. however, they tend to be expensive. software defined radio is a recent technology that will reduce the cost of this approach [98] . another approach for detecting and monitoring uavs is by using computer vision. video surveillance from strategically placed cameras in an area can be passed though deep learning models trained to detect and track uavs. these deep learning models are trained with datasets of images and videos of uavs from which they eventually extract the features which help in distinguishing and tracking uavs. the models could be based on either identifying the appearance of uavs or their motion. multiple cameras with a varying field of views can be used for faster detection [99, 100] . for situations when the ambient light is low, it is hard for normal systems to carry out detection due to a lack of contrast and features. in such scenarios, thermal imaging can be used [101] . in this approach, the various sounds made by a uav due to its moving parts like motors, propellers, and chassis vibration are analyzed using machine learning and deep learning classification approaches to detect its presence. uav sounds can be recorded in control environments to make datasets that can further be augmented using noisy environments to simulate real environments. with these augmented datasets, various models based on support vector machines (svm) and neural networks can be developed for uav detection [102, 103, 104] . besides these, fundamental audio processing approaches such as audio fingerprinting may also be used [105] . it is also possible to track the position of uavs by using multiple microphones with methods like triangulation. better results can be availed by combining two or more of the aforementioned methods, such as cameras along with microphones assisting each other in their operation. a system can be designed which uses the acoustic sensors to identify uavs by audio fingerprinting along with identifying the direction of the source, after which the camera can rotate to spot the target [106, 107] . once the uav is successfully detected and localized, the next step is to take the appropriate response action. the response action depends on the extent to which it is detected, identified, and localized. based on the mode of operation (i.e., manual, full, and partially autonomous), different situations necessitate different approaches for neutralization. for a manual or semiautonomous uav, the rf radio communication between the ground station and uav happens over various protocols with fixed packet structure. these packets can be intercepted and decoded to obtain the packet architecture and hence a spoofing attack can be launched. rf jammers which transmit large amounts of energy towards the uav can also be used for disrupting communication. this can lead to the uav activating its fail-safe which may be to make a safe landing in its current position, return to a preset base location, or fly haphazardly and crash. for an autonomous uav, the sensor values can be corrupted. the gnss signals specifically can be jammed as well as spoofed. besides these, there are some other physical attacks that are possible as well. figure 16 presents a table listing all the techniques discussed in this section. additionally, a table xii reviews some of the state of the art solutions against uavs avaiable in the industry. in the case of rf radio communication between the uav and the ground control, rf jamming techniques are used to increase the level of noise interference at the rf receiver, in this case, the uav or the uav. this reduces the snr at the receiver. this in turn prevents the receiver from responding to the commands from the sender, and thus, neutralizes its operation. hence, the signals from the pilot or satellite systems can be jammed to disrupt the operation of manual and autonomous uavs that depend on these. however, some uavs that operate solely using other sensors such as imus and cameras are immune to this jamming technique. different uavs may employ different spread spectrum and modulation techniques. to reduce the effectiveness of jamming, various methods have also been developed based on software defined networks [108] . hence, depending upon these situation, different rf jamming techniques will be more efficient for effectively introducing interference at the rf receiver. the different types of rf jamming techniques available in literature [109, 110, 111] are discussed in this section . in addition to these, gnss jamming has been discussed as a subsection due to its relevance to the subject (although it is not a different type of jamming and a specific case of the preceding types). table x presents a comparative analysis of the various jamming techniques discussed. 1) noise jamming: also known as barrage jamming, it is the simplest form of jamming in which a noise signal is applied to a small portion or the entire spectrum of the wideband modulated signal. this form of jamming directly affects and reduces the channel capacity of the system. it reduces the snr value at the receiver, thereby reducing the channel capacity and increasing the information error rate. noise jamming affects fhss systems especially by introducing background interference during clock synchronization and tracking that is required between the sender and the receiver in between every transmission. figure 17 shows a visual representation of how the rf spectrum is jammed using noise jamming. synthetic aperture radar (sar) is a special radar used for two dimensional and three-dimensional spatial mappings and is often employed in uavs to provide autonomy to the uav by using methods such as simultaneous localization and mapping (slam). noise jamming can be used against such systems since the radio interference generated by it is sufficient to hide echoes, thereby rendering the sar system futile [112] . 2) tone jamming: in this type of jamming one or more tones in the spectrum are jammed strategically to introduce interference. the jamming performance depends on the placement of the tones in the spectrum and the transmission power. the transmission power is directly proportional to the interference on the tone. this technique is dependent on being able create sufficient interference in order to overcome the jamming margin, which requires a lot of power as multiple tones are targeted. tone jamming can be of two types: either on a single tone (mono-tone) or on multiple tones (multi-tone). both perform poorly against fhss systems due to the variable nature of the transmission spectrum. monotone jamming performs poorly since the overall performance of the system is not affected by one channel being absent. even in multi-tone jamming, to be able to introduce significant interference, the adversary has to jam enough channels in the spectrum. the performance of single-tone jamming against dsss systems has been analyzed in [113] and compared against narrow-band barrage jamming. with the correct placement of the tone, tone jamming performs fairly well against dsss systems. figure 17 shows a visual representation of how the rf spectrum is jammed using tone jamming. 3) swept jamming: in swept jamming, a relatively narrowband signal, sometimes even a pulse or tone, is scanned in time across the frequency spectrum of interest. at a particular time instant, only a single frequency is targeted. however, over a period of time, the jammer covers a range of frequency bands by sweeping the target frequency. hence, it is a mixture of noise and tone jamming in its application. similar to noise jamming, it focuses on a single tone, but by sweeping, it also emulates tone jamming. unlike noise or tone jamming, sweeping the jamming waveform ensures that it covers the entire set of hop frequencies of the data signal in the entire spectrum. figure 17 shows a visual representation of how the rf spectrum is jammed using swept jamming. swept jamming performs well against dsss systems since the data frequency bands are stationary, unlike fhss systems where the frequency bands hop periodically in a pseudorandom fashion. swept jamming finds most applications against gps enabled systems due to weak strength of the gps signals [114] . ways of safeguarding gnss to swept jamming are also constantly being actively developed and analyzed [115] . 4) follower jamming: a follower jammer always tries to locate the new frequency hop that an fhss system went to and then locates the target signal. once confirmed, it then tries to jam the located frequency. to locate the target fhss system frequency, it requires that the jammer measure the spectrum for energy losses and gains. an energy gain in the spectrum indicates a new signal entering whereas energy loss indicates a signal leaving the band. however, even then it is important to accurately identify whether a particular energy variation corresponds to the target signal or not, for which analysis needs to be carried out [116] . jamming: this type of jamming is applicable when the target signal properties are known previously from sources such as the radio frequency integrated circuit (rfic) specifications. in smart jamming, only the necessary signals are attacked to deny successful communication, and hence they are power efficient and effective. this can be achieved by analyzing the data that is being transmitted and identifying critical points. protocol-aware jamming techniques can be developed using software defined radios. after analyzing the target signal, a jamming signal similar to it in terms such as hopping patterns (fhss systems), pn code data rate (dsss systems), and modulation techniques can be generated. literature on implementations of such systems present the energy-efficient jamming performance as compared to other jamming techniques in terms of bit error rate (ber) introduced in the system. it is found to outperform other techniques in successfully jamming the target signals both in dsss and fhss systems but relies on the analysis of the target signal [117] . 6) gnss jamming: today, almost all uav applications involve an autopilot functionality. that is, they are either partially or fully autonomous in their mode of operation. they house numerous sensors and onboard hardware to estimate the current properties of the uav such as orientation, location, and acceleration. one of these is the gnss module such as gps, which provides signals for localization. gps signals are generally vulnerable in nature due to weak signal strength and are highly susceptible to noise and outside interference [118, 119] . the implementation of gnss jamming is an active field since although it is being used as a technique to disable uavs in this context, the same methods can be used to disable gnss systems in other critical applications such as navigation. different jamming techniques for gps signals have been studied, analyzed, and evaluated based on spectral efficiency, energy efficiency, and complexity. based on this, protocol aware jamming or smart jamming was found to be the most efficient [120] . gps jamming is very prevalent as such and jammers are easily available in the market [121] . a study in 2013 by chronos technology supported by the united kingdom technology strategy board investigated the prevalence of such vectors by setting up several monitoring stations across the uk. results showed that some stations even recorded 5-10 jamming instances in a day [122] . research has also been done to prevent gnss jamming due to the financial and strategic importance that this technology holds for all countries. various methods to mitigate gnss jammming, such as using antenna arrays (which improve the overall snr ratio) have also been proposed [123, 124, 125] . b. spoofing 1) sensor spoofing: the autonomous uav auto-pilot application relies heavily on the onboard sensors such as lidars, 129, 130, 131, 132] sonars and optical flow sensors for localization and navigation. these sensors interact with the environment and provide valuable data for the auto-pilot computer to optimally guide the autonomous uav system. in a sensor spoofing attack, the attacker transmits false sensor values to the flight controller which are in contrast to the actual values. the feedback loops get triggered and in order to correct the destabilized false values, the uav orients itself to stabilize, which in turn destabilizes it. since many sensors share data for actuation, this can even lead to complete loss of control of the system, since one can gain access to the on-board actuator sensors or simulate false values. simulations of sensor spoofing attacks on optical flow sensors focused on uav systems have proven this vulnerability [126] . in order to throttle the rising number of such attacks, control invariants have been introduced into the system which are able to detect differences between the perceived state and actual state. such control invariants are derived from physical dynamics and control systems [127] . for instance, the data of gps and optical flow sensors can be used to validate against other sensor data to detect inconsistencies to detect such attacks [133] . 2) signal spoofing: in contrast to jamming which involves bombarding the receiver with noise signals, spoofing involves the generation of plausible counterfeit input signals with enough power to fool the receiver into believing this to be the original legitimate signal. spoofing of the tx protocol is difficult and requires reverse engineering to understand the structure. gps signals tend to fluctuate in power due to the position of the satellites in the space as well as the weather conditions. most modern-day gps receivers implement an automatic gain control (agc) to compensate for these widespread fluctuations in the gps signal strength. however, this also leaves the system more vulnerable to spoofing attacks [128] . a fake gnss signal can be broadcast in an area making the uav in that area perceive as if it is located in a different position, giving virtual control of the uav to the spoofer [129, 130] similar to meaconing, it is used in systems where the gps signal is protected with cryptography. in this attack, each symbol of the secret code is separately estimated by observing the received signal in the corresponding symbol interval. the symbol estimate is continuously updated by observing the received signal and simultaneously used in the spoofed signal, trying to replicate the secret code as faithfully as possible. then, the spoofed signal is sent with some delay to the original signal. methods such as likelihood ratio testing and its derivatives can help protect against this vector [132, 134] . a. malware 1) maldrone: maldrone is a software malware that overrides the uav's autopilot and allows the attacker to take over control remotely. it can be used against any arm based uav running on linux like ar parrot and dji phantom. it opens a backdoor which gives access to sensors and drivers to the hacker. the developer of maldrone, rahul sasi, tested it on a parrot ar drone in 2015. the parrot ar drone, revealed at the international ces 2010 in las vegas, is a quadcopter that can be controlled by a smartphone or tablet over wifi. a binary named program.elf that manages the ar drone has not been made open-source. however, this could be reverseengineered by using software like ida which can convert asm code to pseudo c code. this gave sufficient information about the uav's operation. maldrone injects itself like a proxy, thus enabling the injection of the desired values for both flight controller and sensor communication [139] . 2) skyjack: skyjack has been developed for searching and hijacking uavs that are in wifi communication range. it gived the skyjack pilot the ability to take control over the hijacked uav and also view the camera. skyjack's developer, samy kamkar, used a raspberry pi with a wifi packet injector installed with skyjack to hack an ar parrot 2 drone in 2015. the ar parrot 2, like its predecessor, works over wifi and can be controlled by a smartphone or tablet. the ar parrot 2 hosts its wireless network which is how the pilot of the uav connects. skyjack first runs aircrack-ng (open source) to run monitor mode to find the uavs and uav owners in its vicinity. the mac addresses of the uavs owned by the parrot company can be detected over any wireless connections from mac addresses as they can be found online in the ieee registration authority's organizationally unique identifiers. after that aireplay-ng (open source) is used to de-authenticate the actual pilot of the uav. once unauthenticated, the attacker can connect as the uav is not connected to any pilot. finally, node-ar-drone is used to control the newly enslaved uav via javascript and node.js [140] . skyjack does have its limitations, however, since it can only select targets within a predefined range of mac addresses on an unsecured network. b. gps spoofing 1) dji matrice 100: a software defined radio along with an open source gps-sdr-sim repository is used to broadcast fake gps signals [141] . the attacker supplies a gps broadcast ephemeris file for specifying the gps satellite constellation. the ephemeris files are used to generate the simulated pseudorange and doppler for the gps satellites in view. after this, the simulated range data is used to generate the digitized i/q samples for the gps signal. further, the sdr converts the i/q to rf waves which are received as stronger signals than the real gps by the uav. almost all uavs that are dependent on gps are vulnerable to this kind of attack owing to the very nature of unencrypted civilian gps signals. 2) iit madras: in february 2020, students at the indian institute of technology, madras designed a uav that can detect other uavs visually, along with a gps spoofing mechanism for neutralizing the operation of gps dependent uavs in the vicinity. it uses a deep learning model to detect motion in order to spot other uavs even in the absence of light. it also uses an sdr approach to broadcast stronger gps signals for gps spoofing. mathematical models of the time differences with the target uav are used to generate the spoofed gps packets. with multiple time differences, eventually the target uav calibrated its clock to the spoofed signals. when there is a large variance in the actual gps position and spoofed position, the target uav's fail-safe is activated that disrupts its operation. this was tested against various civilian gps receivers used in the uav industry such as ublox and dji inhouse gnss. the students were able "to take down the uavs almost instantaneously" [144] . the parrot bebop was tested against various attacks by a research team and they were able to discover three vulnerabilities [142] . the first is a denial of service attack where about 1000 requests were made to the uav rapidly, each trying to connect as controller. the uav's processor and memory could not handle this and therefore, it shut down. this sent the uav into what the team referred to as "an uncontrolled landing". next, a buffer overflow attack where a very large data packet was transmitted to the uav, which exceeded the maximum capacity of the buffer in the system. this also caused the uav to crash. lastly, fake packets claiming the sender to be the uav's controller were sent repeatedly from a laptop. this claim was made by spoofing the ip address. soon the uav accepted the sender as hence its own contact with uav was severed. this led to an emergency landing of the uav. the digi xbee 868lp rf modules provide wireless connectivity to end-point devices in mesh networks. it was used for telemetry between the uav and ground station for a uav, which was exploited by nils rodday and presented in the black hat asia conference 2016 [143] . by referring to the instruction manual of the chip, an api mode was discovered which allowed the user to fabricate their own custom packets for transmission. a broadcast mode was also discovered which allowed pinging all chips in the range and getting their addresses from acknowledgments. the chip also had a feature where its address, used for packet transmission, can be changed remotely by another chip. hence, the attacker introduced another chip in the system besides the ones in the ground station and uav, switched to api mode, and then broadcast to get the addresses of the gs and uav chips. after that, he modified the addresses such that all packet were sent through the attacker chip. hence, he got access to reading and writing information on the channel but was still unaware of the data packet structure. for this, he reverse-engineered the android application in the gs and then used trial and error to list all operation packets. after getting the templates, he could rebroadcast those packet to spoof itself as the uav gs. xi. conclusion uav misuse has led to the formation of regulations and regulatory bodies in various countries. so, in this paper, we highlighted the need for research and implementation of measures to counteract the misuse of uavs. having provided the current situation of uavs from a security perspective, the current global scenario of uavs in the military and commercial usage, existing regulations in various countries, we reviewed and discussed popular transmitter protocols and presented some detecting and neutralizing methods for uavs. we emphasized the rf communication used by the uav as it seems to be the most reliable method which can be deployed on a wide scale, owing to new technologies like sdrs, which reduce the cost dramatically. in the latter part, we presented case studies that specifically talk about how different kinds of commercial uavs can be hacked and thus can be misused. with the growing popularity of uavs in various fields, uavs are soon 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attacks hacking a professional drone iit madras designs ai drone that can hack into rogue drones he also worked as a postdoctoral research fellow at the national university of singapore, singapore where he worked in the area of internet of things. he is currently an assistant professor with the department of electrical and electronics engineering working in a software company based out of bangalore in the last 6 years, he has worked and deployed several cryptography projects, websites, and mobile applications he is the author of nine books and more than 500 publications in refereed journals and conferences. he guest edited a number of special issues in ieee journals and magazines. he also served as a member, chair, and general chair of a number of international conferences. throughout his career, he received three teaching awards and four research awards. he also received the 2017 ieee communications society wtc recognition award as well as the 2018 adhoc technical committee recognition award for his contribution to outstanding aayush agarwal naren navneet gupta ☒ the authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. key: cord-311558-1y6z8qso authors: henry, caitlin title: palliative space-time: expanding and contracting geographies of us health care date: 2020-09-19 journal: soc sci med doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113377 sha: doc_id: 311558 cord_uid: 1y6z8qso two important changes are happening in health care in the us. as hospitals close in high numbers, the geographies of health care services are changing. also, the ageing of the population brings about new and complex care needs. these are not discrete trends, as ageing impacts the who, what, and where of care needs, and hospital closures remakes the geographies of where people overall access care. developed out of research on the impacts of hospital restructuring on workers, patients, and communities, this paper aims to understand how health care financing, care needs for the ageing, and new geographies of health services are intertwined. to do so, i look back to 1980s policy changes to medicare, the federal health insurance program for the elderly and disabled. in 1982, congress made two important changes to medicare. the program began covering hospice services, constituting an expansion of care, and the government drastically changed the way it reimburses providers, effectively a contraction of the program. i trace the impacts of these changes over the next decades through analysis of media coverage and secondary research on hospital budgets. drawing on the concept of palliative space-time, i identify a contradictory logic of death at the center of this expansion and contraction of the health care system. this death logic works to destabilize an already uneven geography of health service. yet, this crisis has the potential for more just geographies of health and care. like many global north countries, the us population over 65 is growing, as baby boomers age and americans live longer lives, forcing attention to how societies can support thriving in old age. individuals, governments, families, and institutions are considering new ways of meeting the care needs of elderly people throughout the last decades of their lives, including age-friendly cities, new collective living arrangements, new institutional forms of care, and an increased focus on home care especially (poo 2015) . as activist ai-jen poo (2015, 3) explains, 'people getting older is not a crisis; it's a blessing. we're living longer; the question is how we should live.' the demographic shift comes with a cultural shift around the end-of-life. this is visible through the growing popularity of the death positive movement and caitlin doughty's 'as a mortician' series (the order of the good death n.d.), as well as countless books and podcasts exploring the meanings and practicalities of dying. furthermore, covid-19's disproportionate impact on elderly and people vulnerable due to health conditions, or the strains of systemic oppression, has heightened this conversation. people are asking what a 'good death' could be in a socio-economic system that is threatening to many lives and devalues entire demographics (beech 2020; fraser et al. 2020 ). simultaneously, the health care service landscape has changed dramatically since 2000. hospitals have closed across the country, transforming health care labour markets, how and where people access health care services, and the role of health facilities in communities and the built environment (buchmueller, jacobson, and wold 2006; colliver 2015; henry 2015; alexander 2018) . overall, hospitals are concentrating within and to wealthier urban and suburban centers, meaning both rural and some urban populations are quite far from a hospital. an excellent collaboration on the impacts of facility closures between the milwaukee journal sentinel and pittsburgh post-gazette on the impacts of facility closures found that 'nearly two-thirds of the roughly 230 hospitals opened since 2000 are in wealthier, mostly suburban areas' while the number of urban hospitals has been nearly halved since 1970 (thomas 2014) . rural and disadvantaged communities are greatly impacted and left uncertain what health services will replace the shuttered facility (tribble 2019) . hospitals are closing for multiple reasons. their role in the health system is changing, with more care shifting away from hospitals and towards outpatient and home care (landers batra, betts, and davis 2019) . more importantly, hospitals are increasingly financially unstable and unsustainable institutions (goldsmith and bajner 2017; lovelace jr 2018) . just as aging populations are not exclusive to the us, hospitals are unstable across the west. canada and the uk are also downsizing hospital systems, even while wait times for care are high or increasing and aging populations are requiring more chronic care (howlett and morrow 2014; ewbank, thompson, and mckenna 2017) . every country's health system is unique, but trends in financial stress, care deficits, and inequalities are strikingly consistent across the west. closures raise questions about the built environment when the health care landscape changes because of the large size of hospital properties, the myriad services they house, and their historic role in urban development (henry 2015; day 2016) . this is not to be romantic regarding hospitals but to highlight the importance of hospitals in the social reproduction of individuals, communities, and the health care system (stevens 2007) . it means thinking beyond the impacts of a hospital closure on mortality rates (e.g., joynt et al. 2015) to consider health and health spaces more holistically. this article posits that these two changes are not discrete, as health care is undergoing dramatic spatial and financial changes in the us. thus, the driving question of this article is: what does the convergence of these two simultaneous trends in health care -the remaking of the health service landscape through hospital closures and the growing number of older people needing chronic and eventually end of life care -mean for the wellbeing of the entire health care system? how relational are these two trends? for answers, i turned to medicare and medicaid, the government-provided health insurance for, respectively, people over 65 and low-income people. specifically, i examined the legislative history of medicare to j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f better understand the role of these programs in hospital financing. in the early 1980s, both programs underwent their biggest changes since implementation, as congress passed the tax equity and fiscal responsibility act of 1982 (tefra) and the social security amendments of 1983 (ssa). this legislation made hospice care a covered service for the first time, and altered the fee structure for reimbursing health care providers. these two moments help explain the current transformations in us health care delivery. the closing of hospitals -the backbone of the health care system -and the ageing of the population are two intertwined trends, tied together through medicare's financial structure. these policies of the 1980s are contradictory. while the hospice benefit expanded coverage, the new payment scheme reduced financial stability. the 1982 and 1983 changes to medicare constituted an expansion and a contraction of medicare and, arguably, the health care system. together, they enacted a contradictory logic that is pervading the current health crises. more specifically, two different approaches to death -a care-full death for individuals accessed through hospice and an abandonment (or the dying) of the health care system via financial destabilization. in turn, these legislative changes, while not the only factor, have helped facilitate the transformation in the health care landscape that is unfolding today. to make sense of these legislative moves, i turn to feminist care ethics and eric cazdyn's (2012) concept of 'palliative time' -a state of existence that foregoes cure and marches towards, but does not always reach, death. i argue that with these structural changes to medicare, death permeates the entire health care system but in different ways. the dying of a health system has radical potential to destroy the system and create something new. in sum, this article contributes to historicizing understandings of the current j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f transformations in us health care needs and services, adding nuance to understandings of the shape and impacts of hospital closures, care needs, and demographic shifts. this article draws on research from a broader project on the process and impacts of remaking of the hospital landscape in the us. i situate hospital closures and changing needs of an aging population in the historical context of health care funding. i use a textual analysis of media coverage in the 1980s from four major newspapers -wall street journal, new york times, washington post, and the los angeles times -to trace debates about and impacts of these legislative changes. i chose these newspapers because of their wide readership, differing perspectives, and depth of coverage. through lexisnexis, i searched for articles discussing medicare and either hospice or prospective payment from 1980 to 1990, generating over 400 articles. i analyzed the articles in two ways. first, i used them to assemble a timeline of events. second, i analyzed them for how different writers and actors characterized the needs -both financial and care -of medicare and its relationship to the health system more broadly. i paired this news analysis with a review of secondary literature (primarily from health economics and public health) focusing on studies done since 1982 on the impacts of the prospective payment system on hospital financing and the use and cost effectiveness of hospice. in the next section, i turn to feminist care ethics and eric cazdyn's concept of palliative time, which i will later use to understand the implications of these legislative changes. building on these literatures, i propose the concept of palliative space-time (pst) as a useful tool for understanding the contemporary state of health systems. then, after outlining the two changes made in 1982 and 1983, i trace legacies of these changes in the decades since. finally, i apply the idea of palliative space-time to these contradictory j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f changes, to reveal a death-focused logic at work in us health care today and consider what alternative possibilities exist. i focus primarily on changes made to medicare, the federal program providing health insurance to the elderly, as well as some people with disabilities. when relevant, i mention medicaid, the joint state and federal program providing health insurance to the poor. while these are different programs, they are hardly discrete. policy decisions around one often affect the other, and for patients, these programs sometimes work in tandem to ensure access to care (e.g., medicaid, rather than medicare, covers stays in nursing homes). in the already dead, eric cazdyn (2012) draws on his experiences managing chronic leukaemia to analyse medicine's increasing focus on maintenance over cure. this approach prioritizes important life-maintaining care, cazdyn argues, over lifesaving cures. he describes patients as stuck in palliative time: a time of persistent sickness, hanging on near death. he invokes palliative care, which is comfort care most often delivered when one is near death, to argue that people become trapped in the end-of-life care phase. importantly, this new temporality also describes a political economic condition: the maintenance of a sick and sickening system. cazdyn pairs his critique of medicine with reflections on the impacts of globalization, arguing that globalized capitalism is a broken system, working well for the few and harming the many, that keeps a world lurching along, always near but never reaching death. he draws an analogy between economics and medicine that forces consideration of medicine's approach to chronic care in the political j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f economic context of the health care system, as palliative time is a descriptor for patients as well as a global economic system. palliative time is not simply a temporal label. it is also an analytical tool that highlights the paradox at the center of the health care system: a near-death sphere of possibility, as cazdyn calls it, referring to the possibility of something new and more just coming out of deadly and also frail system. on the one hand, being stuck in the palliative means forgoing cure. no longer searching for cures, the focus shifts to maintenance. people are expected to live with chronic illnesses both social and medical rather than searching for the end of those illnesses, be they though cure or death. medicine resists death, viewing it as a failure rather than a part of life. for cazdyn, living with sickness means living, but always near death. on the other hand, palliative and hospice care is an ideal practice of care. it is attentive to needs of both individuals and communities, treating death with respect, reverence, and care. it foregrounds the nuances that nursing brings to health care, rather than the colder, more clinical approach of medicine. hospice faces death directly, without losing complexity of human experiences and approaches to death. in death, hospice patients and their loved ones often access the best care they have ever received. thus, palliative time captures a paradox in health care related to care and death, simultaneously holding two different, contradictory philosophies towards the end of life. the paradox describes a deadly system that also promotes, at times and in certain places, very care-full experiences of dying. these contradictory approaches to death offer different ways forward -one that maintains the deadly status quo and another, more progressive way that embraces death and dying as a meaningful part of life that deserves more attention. caring is more about a transformative ethos than an ethical application". care is an ethicopolitical approach to living committed to transforming unjust social organizations of life. it presents a different epistemology of death, life, and care. importantly, the act of care is an inherently spatial matter. as mitchell, marston, and katz (2004, 417) explain, subjects are constituted both 'through time and in space'. this constitution is a care-full and social reproductive process, as 'how we live in space' is how we maintain and reproduce ourselves and communities (2004, 418) . massey's (2005, 10-11) explanation of space is helpful, arguing that space is a 'sphere of possibility' always in process. taken together, space is a sphere of making, caring, reproducing, and creating new. thus, a palliative temporality is also spatial; it can be called palliative space-time (pst). as an ethic of care is both an indictment of present inequalities and a call for a future in which people thrive and are cared for through the entire life course, pst similarly has this dual temporality. by centering possibility, palliative space-time is a tool for evaluating unequal access to the conditions for thriving, as well as offering a different way forward. it focuses attention on ways to better value care and body work, new intergenerational living arrangements, more accessible designs in the built environment, and different forms of institutional care. it also requires attention and correctives to oppressions that foster premature death and means some people are not allowed to thrive or even reach old age. each of these changes center an ethic of care in approaching space-making and design. pst is, therefore, an analytic tool that foregrounds care, death, and futurity in analyses of health systems. it is a descriptor of the workings and implications of actions, systems, policies, and relations. it holds care and death at the centre of the analysis, in relation, tandem, and opposite to each other. thus, pst could be used to understand the implications and workings of a health care system in financial dire straits, as i will show here. or, one could use the concept to consider other aspects of globalised capitalism; after all, ahmed (2014, no page) reminds us that 'racial capitalism is a health system'. as a description of a state of existence, pst is a tool for shedding light on the unevenness of experiences and access to care, and the contradictions that have been built into the health system as it exists now. with the care-full principles of the palliative at its heart, pst centers a commitment to j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f doing things differently in recognition of the failings of the status quo. this article explores legislation that has helped create those contradictions and fostered the increased unevenness. i employ pst as a descriptor of the impacts of this legislation, and a way to think through the near-death sphere of possibility of accessing health care under these conditions throughout the life course. applying a lens of pst reveals a complex relationship between care and death and decline at work at multiple scales. the qualities of pst are apparent at the national scale, shaping health care systems and access to care for the entire population through changes to the literal spaces that house provisions. death and care operate in contradictory ways at the scale of the community, as hospitals -community anchors -close or shift meaning and role in regions, cities, and rural areas. finally, pst describes the differential access to care individuals experience in life and in death. pst is useful for understanding the implications of those two legislative changes of the early 1980s: the callous palliative state of the health care system, with the care-full service of hospice. while more money is invested in death care, the simultaneous restructuring of medicare financing destabilizes an entire health care system. as a solution, cazdyn (2012, 163) explains that "reclaiming our own deaths, not in a suicidal way, but in terms of our emotional and political consciousness regarding death and dying, therefore is tied to the reclaiming of utopia". facing death as an important part of life that needs care-full attention, systemically, can pave the way for a more just health system. in sum, the health care system has shifted its orientation towards space and time, and this shift is rooted in a new approach to the life course and death. in tracing the impacts of these two changes in the rest of this article, i will show how these possible futures are j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f animated by a dual logic of death. the legacies of 1982 and 1983 reveal the health care system, both in its care-full and carelessness, working in palliative space-time. expanding medicare: 1982 the two legislative changes i examine here are contradictory. one expanded the services medicare recipients had a right to receive, while the other was a change aimed at reigning in an out of control entitlement. the first change, in 1982, involved hospice care. hospice provides comfort care to the terminally ill, generally wherever the person calls home, be that a house, a nursing home, or a hospital bed (nhpco n.d.) . modern hospice began in the uk in the late 1940s, through the work of physician dame cicely saunders, a nurse-turned-doctor who opened the first modern hospice, st christopher's, in london in 1967 (clark 1998 ). in the 1960s, american nurse florence wald trained with saunders, and established the first hospice in the us in branford, ct in 1974, providing both home hospice and inpatient care (adams 2010) . over this same time, other hospice programs, largely volunteer-driven, began to appear across the country (buck 2011; freudenheim 1983) . hospice is a philosophy of care that foregrounds the patient's goals and values. saunders and other hospice pioneers' goal was for medicine and health care to approach death differently, as a part of life, not as a failure of a body or the medical profession, and to understanding it holistically, involving mind, body, community, and family, and attending to a patient's 'total pain' (clark 2007; livne 2014) . in hospice, the patient is more than themselves, because 'although death [is] a solidary event, hospice advocates insisted it must not be lonely' (abel 2013, 169) . (buck 2011; rich 1983c; 1983a) . in 1986, congress made coverage permanent and expanded hospice funding. the inclusion of hospice allowed medicare patients to access expanded services and benefits, such as prescription drugs not usually covered under the program. though most major insurance companies had some sort of hospice provision by 1982 (torrens 1985) , the inclusion of hospice in medicare was a significant step in standardizing and legitimizing it as a way of care for those at the end of life (quinn 1983 ). this enacted a new ethic of care by establishing hospice as an insurable service. contracting medicare: 1983 j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f the second legislative change of the early 1980s constituted a contraction of the services, justified by the reagan administration claiming that medicare could be bankrupt by 1990. when created in 1965, medicare needed buy-in from physicians and hospitals in order to succeed. partly to win support from a hostile medical establishment, the program's fee structure paid well. as starr explained, the medical profession quickly learned ' [medicare] was a bonanza' (1982, 370) . the federal government also 'agreed to rules for calculating [reimbursement] costs that were extremely favorable to the hospital industry ' (1982, 375) . for its first 18 years, medicare reimbursed providers retrospectively for the actual cost of care according to a test of 'reasonable cost', meaning medicare and medicaid paid hospitals very well (guterman and dobson 1986; stevens and stevens 2007, 124) . welfare programs have always first served the worthy poor, a population seen by state and society as worthy of assistance, compared to other populations deemed lazy or otherwise unsympathetic, generally according to racialized and gendered norms (garland 2014; piven and cloward 1993) . central to this categorizing, piven and cloward explain, is welfare's role in encouraging people into the workforce as the market demands through denials or granting of benefits, plus the role of employer-provided health insurance (thomasson 2002) . medicare and medicaid are major parts of the welfare state apparatus. they provide patients with vital access to care and funnel financial support to providers through reimbursements. they also operate like other welfare programs: providing (selective) support while disciplining recipients. developed out of decades-long struggles over national health coverage, legislators designed these programs for uneven access (starr 1982; stevens and stevens 2007; quadagno 2004) . by the 1960s, 'the aged could be presumed both needy and deserving, and the contributory nature of social security gave the entire program legitimacy' (starr 1982, 368) . for medicare and medicaid, this includes certain poor j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f people, people who qualify as disabled, and retired people who already made their societal contributions through a lifetime of work or raising children/future workers. therefore, while many welfare programs regulate people into the workforce, medicare is a benefit for after the workforce. it is a universal program, granted after a lifetime of labor, with age as the only condition for qualifying, and no conditions for kicking one off the rolls. medicare and medicaid in the early 1980s. over this first 15 years of the programs, health care costs grew not only from inflation, but at a rate beyond inflation (pear 1982b; schwartz 1982; waldholz 1982; merry and schorr 1983) . some of this expense came from improvements in health care which includes more expensive procedures and equipment. some of this increased expense, claimed health care economists and legislators, also came from a fee structure that did not encourage cost controls (for example, see coverage by rich 1982) . as stevens and stevens (2007, 117) argue, while medicare grew into a widely accepted program, medicaid remained unable 'to escape the debilitating effect of its welfare parentage'. the introduction of prospective payments for medicare came after reagan's administration had already cut billions from america's suite of welfare programs. while medicare was and remains wildly popular (norton, dijulio, and brodie 2015) , the financial strain on the program made it into a potentially untenable luxury and justified it as a problem that needed solving. as part of tefra, congress implemented some 'interim changes to the medicare reimbursement system' (guterman and dobson 1986) (pear 1982a ). this was a decidedly different purpose for medicare payments. the new payment scheme created set amounts to reimburse providers for every health care product (services, inpatient stays, and physical products). rather than billing for the cost incurred, the pps set per-patient and per-day billing rates as well as a scheme for the reimbursement price for each service or product. rates are set through calculations based on a standardized payment, the area's wage index, and a diagnosis-related group (drg) classification system, plus variations for urban and rural contexts and regional differences. guterman and dobson (1986, 99) identify an important characteristic of pps: "each hospital keeps, or loses, the difference between the payment rate and its cost for that unit of care." in other words, the program expected providers to pick up any slack. this is the same payment structure medicare uses today. from the beginning, these legislative programs contradicted each other, constituting an expansion and contraction in care. the months the federal government spent working out the details of the hospice benefits implementation reveal the challenges of expanding care access in an era overall hostile to public services. the hospice benefit proved contentious immediately after its passage. in the preparations for the hospice benefit, a dispute ensued j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f between the members of congress who sponsored the bill and congressional budget office (cbo) over the rates at which providers were to be reimbursed. when passing the bill, the house ways and means committee set a payment ceiling of $7600 per patient (rich 1983c stockman, head of the omb, argued that claims that hospice would save money were misleading, as the program would actually cost the government hundreds of millions of dollars in its pilot phase (rich 1983a) , something that would be deeply unpopular given the panic around health care costs (pear 1982b) . lawmakers argued that lowering the rate was a violation of the agreement reached in the initial legislation and would cripple the program (rich 1983c; 1983b) . ultimately, while hhs did set a lower rate than what lawmakers initially wanted, the final payout cap was much closer to the original figure through a series of compromises and amendments. these early months of the program demonstrate not only that the 1980s laws were contradictory, but also reveal the complex financial role of hospice and the trouble with the dominant ways of valuing health care. when health care is seen first and foremost as (too) expensive, the necessity of it takes a back seat. from these rocky early days emerged a landmark program as 'tefra has remained the most central piece of us hospice legislation' (livne 2014, 898) , fueling the expansion and standardization of hospice services. after congress made the hospice benefit permanent in j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f 1986, funding was expanded in 1989 (nhpco n.d.) . by the mid 1990s when clinton was attempting to reform health care, hospice was taken as an integral part of health care (nhpco n.d.) . since tefra, hospice has become a more standardized set of services with clear criteria for when patients can or should access the care (buck 2011; livne 2014) . for example, carney et al (1989) found that, with the implementation of the medicare hospice benefit, patients received more care from registered nurses, less care from volunteers, and patients accessed care when they were sicker, which they credited to the six-month provision. the standardization-via-medicare took time. uptake of certification was slow in the early years of the program, with only 20% of eligible hospices becoming certified (buck 2011, s41) . at tefra's passage, hundreds of hospices were operating in the us but few received medicare benefits; for facilities to qualify, 'major reorganization will be necessary to conform with the centralized administration required by the congressional act' (los angeles times 1983). as the washington post reported, interviewing john j. mahoney, president of the national hospice organization, "some hospices say medicare rates are too low to justify going through the difficult certification process. others, he said are too small to justify the costs and trouble of certification," and others were waiting to see if the program would exist after 1986 (rich 1985 ; see also buck 2011) . over the 1980s, and especially after the program became permanent part of medicare in 1986, more programs opted to become medicare certified and funding increased (davis 1988; gilinsky 1988) . the numbers of hospices both in general and medicare-certified have grown at a rate of 10-20% each year since tefra (livne 2014, 897-98) . in 1985, hospice became reimbursable under medicaid as well, and now, all states j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f include the benefit (kaiser family foundation 2019). by the mid 1990s, most commercial health insurance plans included coverage for hospice care (buck 2011, s41) . annually, government spending on the medicare hospice benefit has grown 5-6% annually (medpac 2015, 325) . as of 2016, medicare has become the largest payer in the country, paying for 90% of hospice patient care days. hospice was attractive to lawmakers in 1982 for its potential to save medicare money (bayer 1983; greenberg 1983) . cost effectiveness was based on patients staying at home, in (powers et al. 2015; zuckerman, stearns, and sheingold 2016; medpac 2015) . the fact of savings may be less important than the belief that hospice care is cost effective. as livne's (2014) study of hospice in california shows, the belief in thrifty hospice agencies providing low-cost care is a powerful force shaping how providers care for patients and families. regardless of cost savings, hospice is of growing importance as the population ages. the blunt truth is that a lot of people will die in old age over the next few decades. this is, therefore, an important social and cultural moment in both ageing and the end stages of the j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f life course. as a significant portion of the population ages and encounters the end stages of life, new questions emerge with urgency: what care is needed at the end of life? how can the system ensure access to such care? as hospice has grown over the past 30 years, more spaces have become palliative. homes take on new caring roles, and new spaces specifically designated for palliative care open (brown 2003; turner et al. 2016) . legislative and financial support for hospice care opened up new possibilities spatially, temporally, politically and economically for relationships to death that foreground care and attention to death. the prospective payment system reflects the other side of the palliative space-time paradox. following 1983, the system expanded over the next two decades to cover physician fees as well as skilled nursing and long-term care facilities (the washington post 1989; wodchis, fries, and hirth 2004) . nearly every state uses a prospective payment system for medicaid reimbursements. recall that financial instability is the major driver behind hospital closures. early on, pps impacted hospital finances (phillips 1984) . in 1984, the first full year of the program, 18% of all hospitals saw a loss of revenue, while 44% of for-profit hospitals saw revenues increase (guterman and dobson 1986) . this means that public and non-profit hospitals, which generally serve deprived communities, felt the impacts of pps more. facilities serving vulnerable populations became more vulnerable. additionally, with pps hospitals found it challenging 'to pass along the costs of free care to the medically indigent' (mclafferty 1986 (mclafferty , 1080 . by its own accounting, the federal government states that pps was partially responsible for many rural hospital closures in the mid-1980s (cbo 1991). as well, facilities serving a high proportion of medicare patients were more vulnerable to closure over the j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f 1980s (williams, hadley, and pettengill 1992) . pps is not the sole cause of closures, but it is an essential structural factor in their instability. most hospitals operate on break even budgets. approximately one third operate on negative profit margins (aha 2018). hospitals are dependent on a fee structure that does not ensure financial stability. a hospital's revenue comes predominantly from insurance reimbursements. but hospitals serve patients with a mix of insurance -private plans, government-provided insurance, and no coverage. hospitals depend on having a payer mix that earns enough revenue to stay open and provide care to everyone. privately insured patients are key to this, as their plans pay well. a closer look at the breakdown of payments is instructive. over 60% of all care hospitals provide is covered by medicare and medicaid association (aha 2019). while private insurers generally overpay at a rate of 144%, medicare and medicaid generally underpay by 10%, sometimes more (cunningham et al. 2016) . medicare patients are both desirable (they have reliable insurance) and undesirable (medicare does not reimburse well enough). medicare is thus integral to a facility's survival but also risky. then there are the patients who are uninsured and cannot pay for the care they receive. though hospitals try (aggressively) to recoup those costs, they are left to eat the expenses. it is commonly assumed that hospitals cost shift shortfalls from other patients on to private insurers (frakt 2011) . facilities facing financial shortfalls actually do not rely on cost shifting, but instead cut staffing and operating costs per patient (hadley et al. 1987; white and wu 2014) . as white and wu (2014, 28) explain, "over the long run, medicare price cuts do not result in hospitals shifting costs to other payers or more profitable services; they instead constrain overall operations and resource use". without enough insurance reimbursements, and especially from private j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f insurance, hospitals may not stay open. in addition, not only is a hospital's very existence at risk, but also, quality of care and labor conditions directly bear the brunt of the payment scheme's impacts of a facility's struggle to balance the budget. spaces of care thus change or disappear. pps has implications for access to care that extend beyond hospitals, shaping access to care in multiple ways. for example, long-term care facilities often limit the number of medicare and medicaid patients they will accept, reserving more beds for people who can pay better through private and supplemental insurance (mor et al. 2004; smith et al. 2007 ). medicaid, which uses a pps, is the largest funder of long-term care, creating another fragility in the system providing care for older people and those with chronic health needs. echoing cazdyn, the health care system is stuck in palliative space-time. applying the lens of pst shows a geography of pps impacts as deadly to systems and spaces of care. in the wake of the legislative changes, the health care system is permeated by death and possibility. hospice care is expanding, increasing access to comfort care for dying people and their families. the role of hospitals in the health care system is shifting, from improvements in care, pressures from insurance companies, and increased financial precarity. rather than stabilize medicare, the pps structure maintains the status quo of uneven and precarious access to services and an increasingly uneven geography of services. this continued with the affordable care act, implemented in 2014: importantly, the program j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f slowed the rise of health care costs and gave people greater access to health care through insurance regulations and expansions to medicaid. yet while hospitals saw net gains, especially in states that expanded medicaid access, the kaiser family foundation (cunningham et al. 2016) has reported that hospitals expect changes to medicaid policy and the high volume of medicaid payments to actually offset some of those gains. increased reliance on a system that reimburses poorly is not a prescription for good financial health. instead, applying a pst lens, the system itself is dying but never allowed to die and not healthy enough to ensure sufficient care for all. this deterioration takes on additional meaning as demographics change. with more people aging, more people will both qualify for medicare and need more care. this means a growing number of medicare patients accessing chronic and hospice care. the demographic and political economic contexts together bring connections between generations, spaces of care, and health care provisions into sharp relief. while hospice is not causing the closure of hospitals, these systems are far from separate, tied together through medicare. this interconnection is apparent when considering intergenerationality in the health care system. the 1980s have afterlives, creating a special relationship between the care of a select population and the care needs of the entire population. a logic of death and dying connect these two concerns. because of the importance of medicare to the financial wellbeing of hospitals, an entire system becomes dependent on a health care system for a single age group. there is an intergenerational dependence (society, health care facilities that everyone uses) on one group of people (seniors) because of their access to a specific program (medicare). a program for some supports an entire system for all; medicare has become the program keeping spaces of health care open and precarious. as the us j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f population ages, the number of people over 65 -and beneficiaries of medicare -is expected to reach 84 million by 2050 (kaiser family foundation 2017). the financial implications of pps and any changes to it will become even more important. while access to health care in the us has never been universally guaranteed, the death that pervades the health care system destabilizes the entire system. pst helps name the important expansion of care but also the structures that destabilize care for all, holding them together in the same frame. importantly, while the remaking of health care spaces threatens everyone's accesseven those with private insurance -it is most acutely felt by those on the margins: people unable to drive great distances to the next nearest hospital, people without cars whose neighborhoods lack transit, people who suffer heart attacks and wait an hour for the ambulance to take them to the hospital an hour away, people already suffering in an antifeminist, racist, and anti-poor system. the precarity of the system means premature death and logics of pst permeate the health care system. pps makes life precarious until a person reaches 65, when they might have better access to good care at the end of life. the life course, though, unfolds in myriad ways, and people access and need chronic and death care at all ages. depending on a single demographic's program to support an entire system has significant implications beyond that demographic, especially when the general population that more care everywhere in an often-brutal socio-political economic system. the reach of pps is far, with the legislative changes of 1982 and 1983 working in tandem. as livne (2014, 901) hospitals are incentivized to send people home as soon as possible, but also face steep penalties from medicare for quick readmissions (henry 2018) . in contrast, hospices are also paid prospectively, but done so per diem, meaning a longer stay earns more money (increasing self-sufficiency). in other words, "the hospice ethic therefore converges with [hospice's] financial interests, hospital's financial interests, and the overall effort to reduce spending on end-of-life care" (2014, 902), as the last year is typically the most expensive of a person's life. death care is rewarded, while care at other times in life is rolled back and made precarious or harder to access. pps, as understood through pst, is a program that no longer cures ills in the health system, but maintains a fragile and sick system, with communities losing hospitals -anchors of services, economic activity, and built environment. dying is, therefore, at the center of this remaking of health system, spatially, over the life course, and through death itself. instability in the system through financial precarity leads to instability of health care spaces and geographies; this in turn leads to greater instability in the health care system and loss of access to care, as what replaces hospitals is not always clear. importantly, the palliative is political, and placing death at the center of these politics is a contradictory move towards something new. the system is failing people, and as cazdyn argues, addressing the manifestations of palliative space-time head on in a radical way means forcing a change; this might be risky, but the system is already deadly. the care needs and changing approaches to those specific needs are a twin transformation occurring in the health care system. hospice and its increasing importance over the past 40 years, represents the emancipatory and utopian side of palliative space-time -a reclaiming of death and life in a health system that centers death. alternatives and the potential for action are abundant. medicare recipients will grow to become a significant voting block in coming decades, as will the very politically engaged generation z. the sandwich generation of adults taking care of aging parents and children of their own have a stake building a robust and stable health system to support their own care pressures. increasing discontent and attention is turning to hospital closures, with communities protesting such closures, for example, the outrage over the closure of a hospital in brooklyn that culminated in its closure, but also legislation mandating better consideration of community and public health needs before allowing hospitals to shut (frost 2015) . as well, increased media coverage of the impacts of closures is increasing, for example, with kaiser health news's series on the a small kansas town coping with the loss of their hospital (tribble 2019) . furthermore, fed up with the growing care deficit and expense of the health system, public opinion towards universal health care has shifted dramatically in the past ten years. each of these trends have great potential to create more just health systems, making it all the more important to understand the implications of a health program's financial structure. in many ways, these changes to the health care arm of the welfare state do not represent a new process. the hospital system has undergone a series of downsizings since hitting its peak after the passage of the hill-burton act in 1946, the federal funding program that poured money into building more hospitals across the country in the post-war era. geographer sara mclafferty (1986) demonstrated that the wave of hospital closures from the late 1960s to the mid 1980s most impacted smaller facilities serving communities of lower socio-economic status. uneven access is always filtered through difference. this is apparent in the impacts deindustrialization had on public long-term care (winant 2018) . as well, closures of the 1960s-1980s must be understood in the context of integration, or the period when nearly all black hospitals closed (sanford iii 2012) . legacies and patterns of uneven access to care and good health persist. given this history, what is special about the changes in the early 1980s? the changes of 1982 and 1983 signify a movement towards a systematic death drive, towards operating in palliative space-time for the health care system. it is a systemic shift in the system towards a form of care with necropolitical goals -focused on not just making live, letting die, and making die at the level of individual and population, but also at the health care system. palliative space-time names not only a withdrawal of services or an increase of stress on caregivers. it describes a shaking of the entire system through closures of physical locations of care, but with the potential to remake the system out of the ruins of closed facilities. for what replaces a hospital could be something wholly different and just. systems and practices of care change, evolve, improve. this article ultimately is arguing for critically centering the impacts of such changes. what happens in a hospital's wake? where do people receive care? where do workers work? what does the loss of tax dollars, a space of care, and an anchor of community mean for workers, communities, economies, politics, health care systems and provisioning? and how does a payment structure reveal what people actually value? centering these questions might open up a way towards utopia, or at least a more just and equitable health care system. the inevitable hour: a history of caring for dying patients in america dying with dignity in america: the transformational leadership of florence wald feministkilljoys (blog) america's rural hospitals are dangerously fragile trendwatch chartbook 2018: trends affecting hospitals and health systems care of the body: spaces of practice forces of change: the future of health how do you foster 'a good death in a racist 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gain access to or shut down a network. vulnerabilities exist not only in the hardware and software that constitute a computer system but also in policies and procedures, especially security policies and procedures, that are used in a computer network system and in users and employees of the computer network systems. vulnerabilities can be found in so many areas in a network system and are indeed anything in a computer network that has the potential to cause or be exploited for an advantage. this chapter explores the sources and assessment of a computer network system’s vulnerabilities. poor security management, incorrect implementation, internet technology vulnerability, the nature of intruder activity, the difficulty of fixing vulnerable systems, the limits of the effectiveness of reactive solutions, and social engineering [2] . the two major components of a computer system, hardware and software, quite often have design flaws. hardware systems are less susceptible to design flaws than their software counterparts owing to less complexity, which makes them easier to test; a limited number of possible inputs and expected outcomes, again making it easy to test and verify; and the long history of hardware engineering. but even with all these factors backing up hardware engineering, because of the complexity in the new computer systems, design flaws are still common. however, the biggest problems in system security vulnerability are due to software design flaws. a number of factors cause software design flaws, including overlooking security issues altogether. however, three major factors contribute a great deal to software design flaws: human factors, software complexity, and trustworthy software sources [3] . in the human factor category, poor software performance can be a result of the following: 1. memory lapses and attentional failures: for example, someone was supposed to have removed or added a line of code, tested, or verified, but did not because of simple forgetfulness. 2. rush to finish: the result of pressure, most often from management, to get the product on the market either to cut development costs or to meet a client deadline, can cause problems. 3. overconfidence and use of nonstandard or untested algorithms: before algorithms are fully tested by peers, they are put into the product line because they seem to have worked on a few test runs. 4. malice: software developers, like any other professionals, have malicious people in their ranks. bugs, viruses, and worms have been known to be embedded and downloaded in software, as is the case with trojan horse software, which boots itself at a timed location. as we will see in sect. 8.4, malice has traditionally been used for vendetta, personal gain (especially monetary), and just irresponsible amusement. although it is possible to safeguard against other types of human errors, it is very difficult to prevent malice. 5. complacency: when either an individual or a software producer has significant experience in software development, it is easy to overlook certain testing and other error control measures in those parts of software that were tested previously in a similar or related product, forgetting that no one software product can conform to all requirements in all environments. both software professionals and nonprofessionals who use software know the differences between software programming and hardware engineering. in these differences underlie many of the causes of software failure and poor performance. consider the following: 1. complexity: unlike hardwired programming in which it is easy to exhaust the possible outcomes on a given set of input sequences, in software programming, a similar program may present billions of possible outcomes on the same input sequence. therefore, in software programming, one can never be sure of all the possibilities on any given input sequence. 2. difficult testing: there will never be a complete set of test programs to check software exhaustively for all bugs for a given input sequence. 3. ease of programming: the fact that software programming is easy to learn encourages many people with little formal training and education in the field to start developing programs, but many are not knowledgeable about good programming practices or able to check for errors. 4. misunderstanding of basic design specifications: this affects the subsequent 5. design phases, including coding, documenting, and testing. it also results in improper and ambiguous specifications of major components of the software and in ill-chosen and poorly defined internal program structures. there are thousands of software sources for the millions of software products on the market today. however, if we were required to name well-known software producers, very few of us would succeed in naming more than a handful. yet we buy software products every day without even ever minding their sources. most importantly, we do not care about the quality of that software, the honesty of the anonymous programmer, and, of course, its reliability as long as it does what we want it to do. even if we want to trace the authorship of the software product, it is impossible because software companies are closed within months of their opening. chances are when a software product is 2 years old, its producer is likely to be out of business. in addition to the difficulties in tracing the producers of software who go out of business as fast as they come in, there is also fear that such software may not even have been tested at all. the growth of the internet and the escalating costs of software production have led many small in-house software developers to use the marketplace as a giant testing laboratory through the use of beta testing, shareware, and freeware. shareware and freeware have a high potential of bringing hostile code into trusted systems. for some strange reason, the more popular the software product gets, the less it is tested. as software products make market inroads, their producers start thinking of producing new versions and releases with little to no testing of current versions. this leads to the growth of what is called a common genesis software product, where all its versions and releases are based on a common code. if such a code has not been fully tested, which is normally the case, then errors are carried through from version to version and from release to release. in the past several years, we have witnessed the growth of the open-source movement. it has been praised as a novel idea to break the monopoly and price gouging by big software producers and, most importantly, as a timely solution to poor software testing. those opposed to the movement have criticized it for being a source of untrusted and many times untested software. despite the wails of the critics, major open-source products such as linux operating system have turned out with few security flaws; still, there are fears that hackers can look at the code and perhaps find a way to cause mischief or steal information. there has been a rise recently in trojan horses inserted into open-source code. in fact, security experts are not recommending running readily available programs such as md5 hashes to ensure that the code has not been altered. using md5 hashes and similar programs such as md4, sha, and sha-1 continually compares codes generated by "healthy" software to hashes of programs in the field, thus exposing the trojans. according to the recent cert advisory, crackers are increasingly inserting trojans into the source code for tcpdump, a utility that monitors network traffic, and libpcap, a packet capture library tool [4] . however, according to the recent study by the aberdeen group, open-source software now accounts for more than half of all security advisories published in the past year by the computer emergency response team (cert). also according to industry study reports, open-source software commonly used in linux, unix, and network routing equipment accounted for 16 of the 29 security advisories during the first 10 months of 2002, and there is an upswing in new virus and trojan horse warnings for unix, linux, mac os x, and open-source software [4] . new developments in software engineering are spearheading new developments such as software reuse and software reengineering. software reuse is the integration and use of software assets from a previously developed system. it is the process in which old or updated software, such as library, component, requirements and design documents, and design patterns, is used along with new software. both software reengineering and reuse are hailed for cutting down on the escalating development and testing costs. they have brought efficiency by reducing time spent designing or coding, popularized standardization, and led to common "lookand-feel" between applications. they have made debugging easier through the use of thoroughly tested designs and code. however, both software techniques have the potential to introduce security flaws in systems. among some of the security flaws that have been introduced into programming is first the mismatch where reused requirement specifications and designs may not completely match the real situation at hand and nonfunctional characteristics of code may not match those of the intended recipient. second, when using object programming, it is important to remember that objects are defined with certain attributes, and any new application using objects defined in terms of the old ones will inherit all their attributes. in chap. 6, we will discuss the many security problems associated with script programming. yet there is now momentum in script programming to bring more dynamism into web programming. scripting suffers from a list of problems, including inadequate searching and/or browsing mechanisms before any interaction between the script code and the server or client software, side effects from software assets that are too large or too small for the projected interface, and undocumented interfaces. security management is both a technical and an administrative security process that involves security policies and controls that the organization decides to put in place to provide the required level of protection. in addition, it also involves security monitoring and evaluation of the effectiveness of those policies. the most effective way to meet these goals is to implement security risk assessment through a security policy and secure access to network resources through the use of firewalls and strong cryptography. these and others offer the security required for the different information systems in the organization in terms of integrity, confidentiality, and availability of that information. security management by itself is a complex process; however, if it is not well organized, it can result in a security nightmare for the organization. poor security management is a result of little control over security implementation, administration, and monitoring. it is a failure in having solid control of the security situation of the organization when the security administrator does not know who is setting the organization's security policy, administering security compliance, and who manages system security configurations and is in charge of security event and incident handling. in addition to the disarray in the security administration, implementation, and monitoring, a poor security administration team may even lack a plan for the wireless component of the network. as we will see in chap. 17, the rapid growth of wireless communication has brought with it serious security problems. there are so many things that can go wrong with security if security administration is poor. unless the organization has a solid security administration team with a sound security policy and secure security implementation, the organization's security may be compromised. an organization's system security is as good as its security policy and its access control policies and procedures and their implementation. good security management is made up of a number of implementable security components that include risk management, information security policies and procedures, standards, guidelines, information classification, security monitoring, and security education. these core components serve to protect the organization's resources: • a risk analysis will identify these assets, discover the threats that put them at risk, and estimate the possible damage and potential loss a company could endure if any of these threats become real. the results of the risk analysis help management construct a budget with the necessary funds to protect the recognized assets from their identified threats and develop applicable security policies that provide direction for security activities. security education takes this information to each and every employee. • security policies and procedures to create, implement, and enforce security issues that may include people and technology. • standards and guidelines to find ways, including automated solution for creating, updating, and tracking compliance of security policies across the organization. • information classification to manage the search, identification, and reduction of system vulnerabilities by establishing security configurations. • security monitoring to prevent and detect intrusions, consolidate event logs for future log and trend analysis, manage security events in real time, manage parameter security including multiple firewall reporting systems, and analyze security events enterprise-wide. • security education to bring security awareness to every employee of the organization and teach them their individual security responsibility. incorrect implantation very often is a result of incompatible interfaces. two product modules can be deployed and work together only if they are compatible. that means that the module must be additive, that is, the environment of the interface needs to remain intact. an incompatible interface, on the other hand, means that the introduction of the module has changed the existing interface in such a way that existing references to the interface can fail or behave incorrectly. this definition means that the things we do on the many system interfaces can result in incompatibility that results in bad or incomplete implementation. for example, ordinary addition of a software or even an addition or removal of an argument to an existing software module may cause an imbalanced interface. this interface sensitivity tells us that it is possible because of interposition that the addition of a simple thing like a symbol or an additional condition can result in an incompatible interface, leading the new symbol or condition to conflict with all applications that have been without problems. to put the interface concept into a wide system framework, consider a systemwide integration of both hardware and software components with differing technologies with no standards. no information system products, whether hardware or software, are based on a standard that the industry has to follow. because of this, manufacturers and consumers must contend with the constant problems of system compatibility. because of the vast number of variables in information systems, especially network systems, involving both hardware and software, it is not possible to test or verify all combinations of hardware and software. consider, for example, that there are no standards in the software industry. software systems involve different models based on platforms and manufacturers. products are heterogeneous both semantically and syntactically. when two or more software modules are to interface one another in the sense that one may feed into the other or one may use the outputs of the other, incompatibility conditions may result from such an interaction. unless there are methodologies and algorithms for checking for interface compatibility, errors are transmitted from one module into another. for example, consider a typical interface created by a method call between software modules. such an interface always makes assumptions about the environment having the necessary availability constraints for the accessibility of local methods to certain states of the module. if such availability constraints are not checked before the modules are allowed to pass parameters via method calls, errors may result. incompatibility in system interfaces may be caused by a variety of conditions usually created by things such as: • too much detail • not enough understanding of the underlying parameters • poor communication during design • selecting the software or hardware modules before understanding the receiving software • ignoring integration issues • error in manual entry many security problems result from the incorrect implementation of both hardware and software. in fact, system reliability in both software and hardware is based on correct implementation, as is the security of the system. in sect. 4.2.1, we discussed design flaws in technology systems as one of the leading causes of system vulnerabilities. in fact, we pointed out that systems are composed of software, hardware, and humanware. there are problems in each one of these components. since the humanware component is influenced by the technology in the software and hardware, we will not discuss this any further. the fact that computer and telecommunication technologies have developed at such an amazing and frightening speed, and people have overwhelmingly embraced both of them, has caused security experts to worry about the side effects of these booming technologies. there were reasons to worry. internet technology has been and continues to be vulnerable. there have been reports of all sorts of loopholes, weaknesses, and gaping holes in both software and hardware technologies. according to the national vulnerability database (nvd), a us government repository of standards-based vulnerability management data using the security content automation protocol (scap), system vulnerabilities have been on the rise ever since system vulnerability data was first captured. the system vulnerability data captured by nvd enables automation of vulnerability management, security measurement, and compliance. nvd includes databases of security checklists, security-related software flaws, misconfigurations, product names, and impact metrics. read more about nvd at https://nvd.nist.gov/home.cfm. there is agreement among security experts that what is reported represents the tip of the iceberg. many vulnerabilities are discovered and, for various reasons, are not reported. because these technologies are used by many who are not security experts (in fact the majority of users are not security literate), one can say that many vulnerabilities are observed and probably not reported because those who observe them do not have the knowledge to classify what has been observed as a vulnerability. even if they do, they may not know how and where to report. no one knows how many of these vulnerabilities there are in both software and hardware. the assumption is that there are thousands. as history has shown us, a few are always discovered every day by hackers. although the list spans both hardware and software, the problem is more prevalent with software. in fact, software vulnerabilities can be put into four categories: • operating system vulnerabilities: operating systems are the main sources of all reported system vulnerabilities. going by the sysadmin, audit, network, and security (sans) institute, a cooperative research and education organization serving security professionals, auditors, system administrators, and network administrators, together with the common weakness enumeration (cwe), a community-developed dictionary of weaknesses of software types, has been issuing lists annually: "cwe/sans top 25 most dangerous software errors." popular operating systems cause many of the vulnerabilities. this is always so because hackers tend to take the easiest route by exploiting the best-known flaws with the most effective and widely known and available attack tools. • port-based vulnerabilities: besides operating systems, network service ports take second place in sourcing system vulnerabilities. for system administrators, knowing the list of most vulnerable ports can go a long way to help enhance system security by blocking those known ports at the firewall. such an operation, though not comprehensive, adds an extra layer of security to the network. in fact, it is advisable that in addition to blocking and deny-everything filtering, security administrators should also monitor all ports, including the blocked ones for intruders who entered the system by some other means. for the most common vulnerable port numbers, the reader is referred to the latest sans at: https://www. sans.org/security-resources/idfaq/which-backdoors-live-on-which-ports/8/4. • application software-based errors. • system protocol software such as client and server browser. in addition to highlighting the need for system administrators to patch the most common vulnerabilities, we hope this will also help many organizations that lack the resources to train security personnel to have a choice of either focusing on the most current or the most persistent vulnerability. one would wonder why a vulnerability would remain among the most common year after year, while there are advisories on it and patches for it. the answer is not very farfetched, but simple: system administrators do not correct many of these flaws because they simply do not know which vulnerabilities are most dangerous; they are too busy to correct them all, or they do not know how to correct them safely. although these vulnerabilities are cited, many of them year after year, as the most common vulnerabilities, there are traditionally thousands of vulnerabilities that hackers often use to attack systems. because they are so numerous and new ones are being discovered every day, many system administrators may be overwhelmed, which may lead to loss of focus on the need to ensure that all systems are protected against the most common attacks. let us take stock of what we have said so far. lots and lots of system vulnerabilities have been observed and documented by sans and cwe in their series, "cwe/ sans top 25 most dangerous software errors." however, there is a stubborn persistence of a number of vulnerabilities making the list year after year. this observation, together with the nature of software, as we have explored in sect. 4.2.1, means it is possible that what has been observed so far is a very small fraction of a potential sea of vulnerabilities; many of them probably will never be discovered because software will ever be subjected to either unexpected input sequences or operated in unexpected environments. besides the inherently embedded vulnerabilities resulting from flawed designs, there are also vulnerabilities introduced in the operating environments as a result of incorrect implementations by operators. the products may not have weaknesses initially, but such weaknesses may be introduced as a result of bad or careless installations. for example, quite often, products are shipped to customers with security features disabled, forcing the technology users to go through the difficult and errorprone process of properly enabling the security features by oneself. it is ironic that as "useful" technology develops so does the "bad" technology. what we call useful technology is the development in all computer and telecommunication technologies that are driving the internet, telecommunication, and the web. "bad" technology is the technology that system intruders are using to attack systems. unfortunately, these technologies are all developing in tandem. in fact, there are times when it looks like hacker technologies are developing faster than the rest of the technologies. one thing is clear, though: hacker technology is flourishing. although it used to take intelligence, determination, enthusiasm, and perseverance to become a hacker, it now requires a good search engine, time, a little bit of knowledge of what to do, and owning a computer. there are thousands of hacker web sites with the latest in script technologies and hundreds of recipe books and sources on how to put together an impact virus or a worm and how to upload it. the ease of availability of these hacker tools; the ability of hackers to disguise their identities and locations; the automation of attack technology which further distances the attacker from the attack; the fact that attackers can go unidentified, limiting the fear of prosecution; and the ease of hacker knowledge acquisition have put a new twist in the art of hacking, making it seem easy and hence attracting more and younger disciples. besides the ease of becoming a hacker and acquiring hacker tools, because of the internet sprawl, hacker impact has become overwhelming, impressive, and more destructive in shorter times than ever before. take, for example, recent virus incidents such as the "i love you," "code red," "slammer," and the "blaster" worms' spread. these worms and viruses probably spread around the world much faster than the human cold virus and the dreaded severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars). what these incidents have demonstrated is that the turnaround time, the time a virus is first launched in the wild and the time it is first cited as affecting the system, is becoming incredibly shorter. both the turnaround time and the speed at which the virus or a worm spreads reduce the response time, the time a security incident is first cited in the system, and the time an effective response to the incident should have been initiated. when the response time is very short, security experts do not have enough time to respond to a security incident effectively. in a broader framework, when the turnaround time is very short, system security experts who develop patches do not have enough time to reverse engineer and analyze the attack in order to produce counter immunization codes. it has been and it is still the case in many security incidents for antivirus companies to take hours and sometimes days, such as in the case of the code red virus, to come up with an effective cure. however, even after a patch is developed, it takes time before it is filtered down to the system managers. meantime, the damage has already been done, and it is multiplying. likewise, system administrators and users have little time to protect their systems. in his testimony to the subcommittee on government efficiency, financial management, and intergovernmental relations of the us house committee on government reform, richard d. pethia, director, cert centers, pointed out the difficulty in fixing known system vulnerabilities as one of the sources of system vulnerabilities. his concern was based on a number of factors, including the everrising number of system vulnerabilities and the ability of system administrators to cope with the number of patches issued for these vulnerabilities. as the number of vulnerabilities rises, system and network administrators face a difficult situation. they are challenged with keeping up with all the systems they have and all the patches released for those systems. patches can be difficult to apply and might even have unexpected side effects as a result of compatibility issues [2] . besides the problem of keeping abreast of the number of vulnerabilities and the corresponding patches, there are also logistic problems between the time at which a vendor releases a security patch and the time at which a system administrator fixes the vulnerable computer system. there are several factors affecting the quick fixing of patches. sometimes, it is the logistics of the distribution of patches. many vendors disseminate the patches on their web sites; others send e-mail alerts. however, sometimes busy system administrators do not get around to these e-mails and security alerts until sometime after. sometimes, it can be months or years before the patches are implemented on a majority of the vulnerable computers. many system administrators are facing the same chronic problems: the neverending system maintenance, limited resources, and highly demanding management. under these conditions, the ever-increasing security system complexity, increasing system vulnerabilities, and the fact that many administrators do not fully understand the security risks, system administrators neither give security a high enough priority nor assign adequate resources. exacerbating the problem is the fact that the demand for skilled system administrators far exceeds the supply [2] . going by daily reports of system attacks and hacks, the number of system attacks is steadily on the rise. however, a small percentage of all attacks are reported, indicating a serious and growing system security problem. as we have pointed out earlier, hacker technology is becoming more readily available, easier to get and assemble, more complex, and their effects more far-reaching. all these indicate that urgent action is needed to find an effective solution to this monstrous problem. the security community, including scrupulous vendors, have come up with various solutions, some good and others not. in fact, in an unexpected reversal of fortunes, one of the new security problems is to find a "good" solution from among thousands of solutions and to find an "expert" security option from the many different views. are we reaching the limits of our efforts, as a community, to come up with a few good and effective solutions to this security problem? there are many signs to support an affirmative answer to this question. it is clear that we are reaching the limits of the effectiveness of our reactive solutions. richard d. pethia gives the following reasons [2] : • the number of vulnerabilities in commercial off-the-shelf software is now at the level that it is virtually impossible for any but the best-resourced organizations to keep up with the vulnerability fixes. • attack technology has now advanced to the point where it is easy for attackers to take advantage of these vulnerable machines and harness them together to launch high-powered attacks. • many attacks are now fully automated, thus reducing the turnaround time even further as they spread around cyberspace. • the attack technology has become increasingly complex and, in some cases, intentionally stealthy, thus reducing the turnaround time and increasing the time it takes to discover and analyze the attack mechanisms in order to produce antidotes. • internet users have become increasingly dependent on the internet and now use it for many critical applications so that a relatively minor attack has the potential to cause huge damages. without being overly pessimistic, these factors, taken together, indicate that there is a high probability that more attacks are likely, and since they are getting more complex and attacking more computers, they are likely to cause significant devastating economic losses and service disruptions. according to john palumbo, social engineering is an outside hacker's use of psychological tricks on legitimate users of a computer system in order to gain the information (usernames and passwords) one needs to gain access to the system [5] . many have classified social engineering as a diversion, in the process of system attack, on people's intelligence to utilize two human weaknesses: first, no one wants to be considered ignorant, and second is human trust. ironically, these are two weaknesses that have made social engineering difficult to fight because no one wants to admit falling for it. this has made social engineering a critical system security hole. many hackers have and continue to use it to get into protected systems. kevin mitnick, the notorious hacker, used it successfully and was arguably one of the most ingenious hackers of our time; he was definitely very gifted with his ability to socially engineer just about anybody [5] . hackers use many approaches to social engineering, including the following [6]: • telephone. this is the most classic approach, in which hackers call up a targeted individual in a position of authority or relevance and initiate a conversation with the goal of gradually pulling information out of the target. this is done mostly to help desks and main telephone switchboards. caller id cannot help because hackers can bypass it through tricks, and the target truly believes that the hacker is actually calling from inside the corporation. • online. hackers are harvesting a boom of vital information online from careless users. the reliance on and excessive use of the internet have resulted in people having several online accounts. currently, an average user has about four to five accounts, including one for home use, one for work, and an additional one or two for social or professional organizations. with many accounts, as probably any reader may concur, one is bound to forget some passwords, especially the least used ones. to overcome this problem, users mistakenly use one password on several accounts. hackers know this, and they regularly target these individuals with clever baits such as telling them they won lotteries or were finalists in sweepstakes where computers select winners or they have won a specific number of prizes in a lotto, where they were computer selected. however, in order to get the award, the user must fill in an online form, usually web-based, and this transmits the password to the hacker. hackers have used hundreds of tricks on unsuspecting users in order for them to surrender their passwords. • dumpster diving is now a growing technique of information theft not only in social engineering but more so in identity theft. the technique, also known as trashing, involves an information thief scavenging through individual and company dumpsters for information. large and critical information can be dug out of dumpsters and trash cans. dumpster diving can recover from dumpsters and trash cans individual social security numbers, bank accounts, individual vital records, and a whole list of personal and work-related information that gives the hackers the exact keys they need to unlock the network. • in person is the oldest of the information-stealing techniques that predates computers. it involves a person physically walking into an organization's offices and casually checking out note boards, trash diving into bathroom trash cans and company hallway dumpsters, and eating lunches together and initiating conversations with employees. in big companies, this can be done only on a few occasions before trusted friendships develop. from such friendships, information can be passed unconsciously. • snail mail is done in several ways and is not limited only to social engineering but has also been used in identity theft and a number of other crimes. it has been in the news recently because of identity theft. it is done in two ways: the hacker picks a victim and goes to the post office and puts in a change of address form to a new box number. this gives the hacker a way to intercept all snail mail of the victim. from the intercepted mail, the hacker can gather a great deal of information that may include the victim's bank and credit card account numbers and access control codes and pins by claiming to have forgotten his or her password or pin and requesting a reissue in the mail. in another form, the hacker drops a bogus survey in the victim's mailbox offering baits of cash awards for completing a "few simple" questions and mailing them in. the questions, in fact, request far more than simple information from an unsuspecting victim. • impersonation is also an old trick played on unsuspecting victims by criminals for a number of goodies. these days the goodies are information. impersonation is generally acting out a victim's character role. it involves the hacker playing a role and passing himself or herself as the victim. in the role, the thief or hacker can then get into legitimate contacts that lead to the needed information. in large organizations with hundreds or thousands of employees scattered around the globe, it is very easy to impersonate a vice president or a chief operations officer. since most employees always want to look good to their bosses, they will end up supplying the requested information to the imposter. overall, social engineering is a cheap but rather threatening security problem that is very difficult to deal with. vulnerability assessment is a process that works on a system to identify, track, and manage the repair of vulnerabilities on the system. the assortment of items that are checked by this process in a system under review varies depending on the organization. it may include all desktops, servers, routers, and firewalls. most vulnerability assessment services will provide system administrators with: • network mapping and system fingerprinting of all known vulnerabilities. • a complete vulnerability analysis and ranking of all exploitable weaknesses based on potential impact and likelihood of occurrence for all services on each host. • prioritized list of misconfigurations. in addition, at the end of the process, a final report is always produced detailing the findings and the best way to go about overcoming such vulnerabilities. this report consists of prioritized recommendations for mitigating or eliminating weaknesses, and based on an organization's operational schedule, it also contains recommendations of further reassessments of the system within given time intervals or on a regular basis. due to the massive growth of the number of companies and organizations owning their own networks, the growth of vulnerability monitoring technologies, the increase in network intrusions and attacks with viruses, and worldwide publicity of such attacks, there is a growing number of companies offering system vulnerability services. these services, targeting the internals and perimeter of the system, web-based applications, and providing a baseline to measure subsequent attacks against, include scanning, assessment and penetration testing, and application assessment. vulnerability scanning services provide a comprehensive security review of the system, including both the perimeter and system internals. the aim of this kind of scanning is to spot critical vulnerabilities and gaps in the system's security practices. comprehensive system scanning usually results in a number of both false positives and negatives. it is the job of the system administrator to find ways of dealing with these false positives and negatives. the final report produced after each scan consists of strategic advice and prioritized recommendations to ensure that critical holes are addressed first. system scanning can be scheduled, depending on the level of the requested scan, by the system user or the service provider, to run automatically and report by either automated or periodic e-mail to a designated user. the scans can also be stored on a secure server for future review. this phase of vulnerability assessment is a hands-on testing of a system for identified and unidentified vulnerabilities. all known hacking techniques and tools are tested during this phase to reproduce real-world attack scenarios. one of the outcomes of these real-life testings is that new and sometimes obscure vulnerabilities are found, processes and procedures of attack are identified, and sources and severity of vulnerabilities are categorized and prioritized based on the user-provided risks. as web applications become more widespread and more entrenched into e-commerce and all other commercial and business areas, applications are slowly becoming the main interface between the user and the network. the increased demands on applications have resulted in new directions in automation and dynamism of these applications. as we saw in chap. 6, scripting in web applications, for example, has opened a new security paradigm in system administration. many organizations have gotten a sense of these dangers and are making substantial progress in protecting their systems from attacks via web-based applications. assessing the security of system applications is, therefore, becoming a special skills requirement needed to secure critical systems. vulnerability online services have many advantages for system administrators. they can, and actually always do, provide and develop signatures and updates for new vulnerabilities and automatically include them in the next scan. this eliminates the need for the system administrator to schedule periodic updates. reports from these services are very detailed not only on the vulnerabilities, sources of vulnerabilities, and existence of false positives, but they also focus on vulnerability identification and provide more information on system configuration that may not be readily available to system administrators. this information alone goes a long way in providing additional security awareness to security experts about additional avenues whereby systems may be attacked. the reports are then encrypted and stored in secure databases accessible only with the proper user credentials. this is because these reports contain critically vital data on the security of the system, and they could, therefore, be a pot of gold for hackers if found. this additional care and awareness adds security to the system. information security: protecting the global enterprise pethia rd information technology-essential but vulnerable: how prepared are we for attacks? ethical and social issues in the information age poster children for security problems social engineering: what is it, why is so little said about it and what can be done? sans part i: hacker tactics probably, the best advantage to an overworked and many times resource-strapped system administrator is the automated and regularly scheduled scan of all network resources. they provide, in addition, a badly needed third-party "security eye," thus helping the administrator to provide an objective yet independent security evaluation of the system. 1. what is a vulnerability? what do you understand by a system vulnerability? 2. discuss four sources of system vulnerabilities. 3 . what are the best ways to identify system vulnerabilities? 4. what is innovative misuse? what role does it play in the search for solutions to system vulnerability? 5. what is incomplete implementation? is it possible to deal with incomplete implementation as a way of dealing with system vulnerabilities? in other words, is it possible to completely deal with incomplete implementation? 6. what is social engineering? why is it such a big issue yet so cheap to perform?is it possible to completely deal with it? why or why not? 7. some have described social engineering as being perpetuated by our internal fears. discuss those fears. 8. what is the role of software security testing in the process of finding solutions to system vulnerabilities? 9. some have sounded an apocalyptic voice as far as finding solutions to system vulnerabilities. should we take them seriously? support your response. 10. what is innovative misuse? what role does it play in the search for solutions to system vulnerabilities? 1. why are vulnerabilities difficult to predict? 2. discuss the sources of system vulnerabilities. 3. is it possible to locate all vulnerabilities in a network? in other words, can one make an authoritative list of those vulnerabilities? defend your response. 4. why are design flaws such a big issue in the study of vulnerability? 5. part of the problem in design flaws involves issues associated with software verification and validation (v&v). what is the role of v&v in system vulnerability? key: cord-290139-b02eghd4 authors: yen, tseng-chang; wang, kuo-hsiung; wu, chia-huang title: reliability-based measure of a retrial machine repair problem with working breakdowns under the f-policy date: 2020-10-06 journal: comput ind eng doi: 10.1016/j.cie.2020.106885 sha: doc_id: 290139 cord_uid: b02eghd4 we study reliability and sensitivity analysis of a retrial machine repair problem with working breakdowns operating under the f-policy. the f-policy studies the most common issue of controlling arrival to a queueing problem and it requires startup time before allowing failed machines to enter the orbit. the server is subject to working breakdowns only when there is at least one failed machine in the system. when the server is busy it works at a fast rate, but when it is subject to working breakdowns, it works at a slow rate. failure and repair times of the server are exponentially distributed. the laplace transform technique is utilized to develop two system performance measures such as system reliability and mean time to system failure (mttf). extensive numerical results are carried out to reveal how performance measures are affected by changing various values of each system parameter. cloud computing is a burgeoning computing paradigm and has gained tremendous popularity in recent years. cloud computing paradigm shifts the deployment of computing infrastructure (such as cpu, network, and storage) from end users to the cloud data center. the provision of cloud computing services is delivered over the internet via virtual machines (vms) and virtual computing resources. cloud services provide scalable and flexible infrastructure for internet of things (iot), machine learning, blockchain, computer-assisted instruction (cai), and etc. in the covid-19 pandemic era, many countries have decided to temporarily close schools to reduce contact and save lives. to avoid disrupting learning and upending lives, teaching is moving online on an untested and unprecedented scale. onlinelearning is an internet-based cai system, which uses internet technology to improve the efficiency of education. by using the benefits of cloud computing, the online-learning cloud system supports the ability to dynamically allocate computing and storage resources for teaching material. to keep the quality of online-learning service and the stability of real-time data transition, the reliability of the cloud system should be investigated. the maintenance of online-learning cloud system can be modelled as a retrial machine repair problem. the retrial machine repair problem has been widely adopted to study many real-world systems, such as call centers, telecommunication systems, cloud computing networks, etc. in this paper, we consider a retrial machine repair problem (rmrp) with working breakdowns that combines f-policy and exponentially startup time before allowing failed machines to enter the retrial system. the server may be subject to working breakdown while serving a failed machine. when a server is busy or subject to working breakdowns, failed machines join the retrial orbit. arriving failed machines which cannot receive service immediately join the retrial orbit for a certain period of time and retry to receive service. maintaining a high level of system reliability is generally a requisite for many real-world repairable systems. for the most comprehensive concepts in retrial queues, we referred the reader to artalejo (1999a artalejo ( , 1999b , artalejo and gomez-corral (2008) , and phung-duc (2019). the literature on retrial systems was very vast and rich. artalejo and falin (2002) provided extensive comparisons of the standard and retrial queueing systems. sherman and kharoufeh (2006) studied an unreliable m/m/1 retrial queue with infinite-capacity orbit and normal queue. the authors derived stability conditions and some important stochastic decomposability results. wang (2006) extended sherman and kharoufeh's work to study an m/g/1/k retrial queue with server breakdowns. efrosinin and winkler (2011) proposed a markovian retrial queue with constant retrial rate and an unreliable server that combines the threshold recovery policy. the authors developed the important results for the waiting time distribution and the optimal threshold level. the authors provided the extensive results of the arrival distribution, the busy period, and the waiting time process. reliability analysis of the retrial queue with server breakdown and repairs was studied by wang et al. (2001) . gharbi and ioualalen (2006) considered finite-source retrial systems with multiple server breakdowns and repairs using generalized stochastic petri nets model. the authors developed steady-state performance and reliability indices. moreover, they also employed sensitivity analysis with numerical illustration. ke et al. (2013) presented the availability analysis of a repairable retrial system with warm standbys. kuo et al. (2014) investigated reliability analysis of a retrial system with mixed standbys. the authors provided sensitivity analysis for the mean time-to-failure as well as the steady-state availability. chen (2018) proposed reliability analysis of retrial machine repair system with working breakdowns and a single repair server with recovery policy. both sensitivity analyses and relative sensitivity analyses of system reliability and mean time to system failure were performed. chen and wang (2018) analyzed the system reliability of the n-policy retrial machine repair problem with a single controllable server. numerical experiments were provided to reveal how performance measures are affected by the change of each system parameter. for f-policy queues, wang et al. (2008) considered the optimum control of a g/m/1/k system combining f-policy and exponentially startup time before starting to allow clients in the system. the authors applied the supplementary variable technique to develop the steady-state probability distribution of the number of clients in the system. wang and yang (2009) examined the f-policy m/m/1/k system with server breakdown. quasi-newton methods and the direct search were adopted to determine the optimal threshold f, the optimal service rate, and the optimal startup rate at minimum cost. an f-policy m/m/1/k system with working vacations and exponentially startup time was explored by yang et al. (2010) . extensive numerical results were carried out to reveal the influence of system parameters on the cost function. for the systematic developments of the control f-policy systems, one can refer to the research papers by jain et al. (2016a jain et al. ( , 2016b and chang et al. (2018) . the fault tolerance problem of repairable redundant system with general retrial times operating under f-policy was analyzed by jain and sanga (2017) . numerical results were provided to study the effects of different system parameters on various performance measures. shekhar et al. (2017) proposed the computational approach to calculate the transient and steady state probabilities of the machine repair problem with an unreliable server operating under f-policy. greedy selection and newton-quasi methods were used to determine the optimal solutions at minimum cost. jain and sanga (2019a) studied f-policy m/m/1/k retrial queueing system with state-dependent rates. a cost function was conducted to determine the optimal service rate at minimum cost. the optimal control fpolicy for m/m/r/k queue with an additional server and balking was investigated by jain and sanga (2019b) . a cost model was framed to determine the optimal threshold parameter and optimal service rate. the finite state dependent queueing model with general retrial times operating under f-policy was explored by jain and sanga (2019c) . sensitivity analysis of the cost function with numerical illustrations were provided. jain and sanga (2020a) provided a state-of-the-art and survey of literature on the state-dependent queueing models operating under f-policy. recently, jain and sanga (2020b) investigated the machine repair system with general retrial times operating under f-policy in fuzzy environment. the signed distance method was used to defuzzify the cost function. the authors applied the genetic algorithm to find the optimal control parameter and corresponding minimum cost. to the best of our knowledge, system reliability and sensitivity analysis of a rmrp with working breakdowns operating under the fpolicy has never been discussed in the literature. this paper differs from previous work in that: (i) queueing problems are broadly divided into two categories, one aims at controlling service category (n-policy) whereas the other aims at controlling arrivals category (fpolicy). the f-policy reliability problem has distinct characteristics which are different from the n-policy reliability problem. (ii) it aims at controlling arrivals to study reliability characteristics of a retrial machine repair problem; (iii) we simultaneously consider the f-policy and working breakdowns which has never been investigated in the existing work. the rest of the paper is organized as follows. section 2 gives the descriptions of the problem. in section 3, we use the laplace transform technique to develop the main results such as system reliability and mean time to system failure. sensitivity and relative sensitivity analysis is also addressed in this section. in section 4, extensive numerical results were carried out to reveal the influence of system parameters on related analysis such as system reliability, mean time to system failure, sensitivity, and relative sensitivity. section 5 concludes the paper. we propose a retrial machine repair problem (rmrp) with identical and   n m s independent machines and a single server in the repair facility. as many as machines can m be operated simultaneously in parallel, the rest of the machines are available as warm-s standby spares. operating machines fails according to independent poisson distribution with parameter similarly, each of the available warm standbys fails independently of the state .  of all the others with poisson rate ( ). whenever one of operating machines fails,  0     it is immediately replaced by a warm standby, if ready. we assume that when a warm standby machine moves into an operating state, its failure characteristics will be that of an operating machine. each failed operating or standby machine is instantly sent to a single server. the server is unreliable and may experience a working breakdown during busy periods. when the server is busy it serves at a fast service rate , but when it is subject to working breakdowns, 1  in place of terminating service completely, it continues at a lower service rate . the 2 1 ( )  service time distribution is assumed to be exponentially distributed. it is assumed that the server may encounter working breakdown at any time with breakdown rate . whenever the server  breaks down, it is immediately repaired at a repair rate . breakdown and repair times of the  server are assumed to be exponentially distributed. when the server recovers from a working breakdown, the service rate is enhanced from to . whenever a machine fails, it is 2  1  immediately sent to the repair facility where repair work is provided in the order of breakdowns; that is, first-come, first-served (fcfs) discipline. arriving failed machines discern that the server is busy and must enter the orbit after a certain period of time and retry to receive service. each failed machine in the orbit repeats its service request with retrial time. retrial times follow the exponential distribution at rate .  furthermore, to control arriving failed machines, an f-policy is implemented. the definition of an f policy is described below: when the number of failed machines in the system reaches full capacity k, no further arriving failed machines are allowed to enter the system until the number of failed machines in orbit decreases to the threshold value f ( ). at 0 1    f k that moment, the server must adopt exponentially start up time with parameter to start  allowing failed machines to join the system. thus, the system operates continuously until the number of failed machines in the system reaches to full capacity k again at which time the above process is repeated over and over. according to the f-policy, to ensure that the server can operate normally, the repair facility prevents new failed machines from entering with probability . on the contrary, when system is full, the entering of new failed machine causes c the server to be unable to complete the repair due to insufficient system resources. the system then moves to the unsafe failure (uf) state with probability , and the occurrence of the 1 c unsafe failure always results in a system fail. a practical situation related to an online-learning cloud system is presented for illustrative purposes. to satisfy the requests of extensive concurrent online-learning connections, an online-learning cloud system is established via a vm cluster on four quad-core servers. since there are total 16 cpu cores (4 4 cores), 16 vms (each vm is assigned with a cpu core) are  deployed to establish a private cloud ( fig. 1 ) which 12 vms served as working online-learning servers, and 4 vms as warm-standby servers. meanwhile, one physical server with linux system and pre-installed cloudstack cloud administration tool is deployed as the vm repair server. besides, a 1tb ceph distributed storage system is installed to improve the i/o efficiency of online-learning system. each vm consists of a kernel program and a 25 gb root filesystem with pre-installed debian linux system and the moodle online-learning tool. an extra 200 gb root filesystem is mounted to the vm repair server to provide storage pool (treated as the orbit) for failed vms. therefore, there are at most 8 (treated as ) failed vms k can be sent to repair server to wait for repair procedure. to promise the quality of service, a failed working vm is replaced with a warm standby vm, and failed vms are sent to the vm repair server, which could check and repair the malfunctioned root filesystem. when a failed vm arrives, it accepts repair procedure immediately according to its system log file if the vm repair server is available. otherwise, the failed vm is transmitted to the storage pool of the repair server to wait for filesystem check and reconfiguration. when the number of failed vms reaches 8, the cloudstack has a 80% (treated as ) chance to prohibit any failed vms from c entering to repair server due to storage space limitation k. the cloudstack may fail to prevent new failed vms from entering the repair server with probability 0.1 and cause an onlinelearning system error due to excessive use of storage space. a faster service rate is provided when the vm repair server is normal. the vm repair server may be subject to failure and provide a slower service rate due to a software or hardware problem, such as abnormal program execution or disk hot swap. in this rmrp, we describe the system states by the pair where denotes the ( , ) i j i system states and represents the number of failed machines in the retrial orbit, j . various values of define system states as follows: 0,1, 2,..., : the server is operating normally but is idle, and arriving/retrial failed machines are 0  i allowed to join the system for service; : the server is operating normally but is busy, one failed machine is being served and 1  i arriving failed machines will be forced to enter the orbit; : the server is operating normally but is busy and the system is blocked, and arriving 2  i failed machines are not allowed to enter the system; : the server is busy during a working breakdown, and failed machines are allowed to 3  i join the system; : the server is busy during a working breakdown, and failed machines are not allowed 4  i to join the system; : the server is idle during a working breakdown, and arriving/retrial failed machines 5  i are allowed to join the system. with the above definition of system states, the state space can be presented as at time t, the probabilities of different states in the system are defined as follows: probability of having failed machines in the retrial orbit when the server is in the mean failure rate and the mean retrial rate are given by the state transition-rate diagram for the rmrp with working breakdowns operating under the f-policy can be shown in figure 2 . figure 2 . reliability of retrial machine repair system with working breakdowns under the f-policy. the differential-difference equations for each state at time t can be derived by figure 2 . for instance, the differential difference equation for the state is implementing the laplace transform and the technique of integration by parts in calculus as similarly, by taking the laplace transform to the differential-difference equation of each system state, the laplace transform equations (1)-(21) are established. (2) * * * 0 0,0 1 1,0 1 2,0 0,0 denotes the transition rate matrix which is also a squared matrix of order . it can be 6 2  k represented by sub-matrices as follows: . ( the sub-matrix is a matrix with only one 1 , , 1 1, ; , 2 1, 1; 0, other , . the sub-matrix and are and matrices defined by the sub-matrix and is a diagonal matrix of order defined by are the probability of that the system has failed at or before time t, the reliability function 2 ( ) uf p t is obtained in the following: , . it is always finite since the integrated function is a monotonic decreasing and bounded function of . thus, it implies that the mean time to system failure (mttf) exists and can be calculated t by (26) consequently, the mttf can be obtained as for each system parameter , differentiating (25) with respect to we obtain the  ,  gradient of system reliability for the sensitivity analysis, shown below similarly, the gradient of mttf can be derived by differentiating (27) moreover, the relative gradient on and mttf can be implemented by ( ) since the derived results and are complex non-linear function of the system ( ) parameters, the explicit closed-form of the associated derivative with respective to parameter is difficult to be obtained. hence, we calculate the gradient numerically. taking as     an example, at point in equation (28) is computed by with a small difference magnitude . this section presents some numerical results to perform several related analyses. in first, as the illustration example of online-learning cloud system provided in section 2.1, the base (initial) parameters are selected as , , , , based on the 0.04 above basic setting, except for parameters m and s (which are always fixed), we change one specific parameter at one time and keep the values of the other parameters. that is, we investigate the effects of each parameter on the system reliability to recognize which parameters are critical and needed to be controlled well. the numerical results of for system ( ) y r t reliability assessment are depicted in figures 3-13 . from these figures, we observe that , ,  c k significantly affect system reliability (see figures 3, 11, 13 ). parameters and affect the  1  system reliability moderately (see figures 5, 6) . parameters affects the system 2 , , ,    f reliability slightly (see figures 7, 8, 9, 12) while and affect the system reliability rarely   (see figures 4, 10) . it shows the managers several possibilities for reliability enhance: (i) enlarge the system capacity; (ii) reduce the mean failure rate or improve the vm stability; (iii) add some necessary mechanisms for successfully blocking the failed vms when the system is full.  figure 11 . system reliabilty affected by . c figure 12 . system reliabilty affected by . f figure 13 . system reliabilty affected by . k in this subsection, some numerical experiments are perfomed to investigat how each system parameter affects the mean time to system failure (mttf extensive numerical results are carried out on sensitivity and relative sensitivity analysis. first, sensitivity analysis on system reliability is provided and depicted in figure 14 . one can see from figure 14 that the order of sensitivity analysis on system reliability affected by each parameter can be ranked below: furthermore, the signs of 1 2 .         c gradient on system reliability with respect to paramters , are negative. it indicates ,  ,    that system reliability increases as these paramters decrease. in constast, the signs of gradient on system reliability with respect to paramters are positive and therefore the , system reliability increases as these paramters increase. in addition, the results show that parameters and have significant effects and therefore they should be carefully estimated  c as accessing the system reliability. therefore, a monitoring system with continuous data collection may be crucial to control them well. figure 14 . sensitivity analysis on reliability function. next, as for sensitivity analysis on mttf affected by each system parameter, table 9 tabulates the gradient of mttf with respect to various parameters. we observe from table 9 , the order of sensitivity analysis on mttf affected by each parameter can be ranked below: besides, the signs of sensitivity on mttf affected by finally, the related sensitivity analyses on system reliability and mttf are also performed. extensive numerical results for relative sensitivity on system reliability and mttf are shown in figure 15 and table 10 , respectively. it appears from figure 15 that the order of relative sensitivity on system reliability affected by each parameter can be ranked below: from in this paper, we introduced a retrial machine repair problem with working breakdowns operating under the probabilistic f-policy. we applied the laplace transform technique and the matrix-analytical method to solve the differential-difference equations of the investigated system. then, the explicit expressions of the system reliability and the mean time to failure were derived. a practical illustration of the online-learning cloud system that the proposed model can be applied to is provided. based on the application case, a reliability-based sensitivity analysis for the effects of system parameters was performed. the associated numerical results were tabulated and displayed graphically to evaluate the impacts of different parameters. the results indicated that the effect of the mean startup rate is ignorable. increasing the prohibit success probability, the mean service rate, or the system capacity can effectively enhance the system reliability. the results also show that the mean arrival rate and the prohibit probability need to be evaluated carefully. once they are changed but the manager does not notice it, the system reliability may become low and cause additional operating cost. in the future, we provide some possible research topics shown below: 1. some random times (e.g. repair times or retrial times) obey general distribution, 2. system availability of the model, 3. server may be subject to unpredictable breakdowns, and 4. the optimal management strategy. we consider a f-policy retrial machine repair problem with working breakdowns.  one practical illustration of the online-learning cloud system is presented.  the differential equations are tabulated and solved by laplace transform technique.  closed-form expressions for the reliability and the mttf are explicitly derived.  reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to system parameters are performed.  several management insights for managers to enhance the reliability are provided. accessible bibliography on retrial queues. mathematical and computer modelling a classified bibliography of research on retrial queues: progress in 1990-1999. top standard and retrial queueing systems: a comparative analysis retrial queueing systems: a computational approach analysis of a standby redundant system with controlled arrival of failed machines reliability analysis of a retrial machine repair problem with warm standbys and a single server with n-policy system reliability analysis of retrial machine repair systems with warm standbys and a single server of working breakdown and recovery policy queueing system with a constant retrial rate, nonreliable server and threshold-based recovery gspn analysis of retrial systems with servers breakdowns and repairs control f-policy for fault tolerance machining system with general retrial attempts f-policy for m/m/1/k retrial queueing model with statedependent rates. performance prediction and analytics of fuzzy, reliability and queuing models optimal control f-policy for m/m/r/k queue with an additional server and balking admission control for finite capacity queueing model with 24 general retrial times and state dependent rates state dependent queueing models under admission control fpolicy: a survey fuzzy cost optimization and admission control for machine interference problem with general retrial control f-policy for markovian retrial queue with server breakdowns. 1 st ieee international conference on power electronics, intelligent control and energy system queueing analysis of machine repair problem with controlled rates and working vacation under f-policy availability of a repairable retrial system with warm standby components reliability-based measures for a retrial system with mixed standby components retrial queueing models: a survey on theory and applications threshold control policy for maintainability of manufacturing system with unreliable workstations an m/m/1 retrial queue with unreliable server reliability analysis m/g/1 queues with general retrial times and server breakdowns reliability analysis of the retrial queue with server breakdowns and repairs a recursive method for the f-policy g/m/1/k queueing system with an exponential startup time controlling arrivals for a queueing system with an unreliable server: newton-quasi method optimization and sensitivity analysis of controlling arrivals in the queueing system with single working vacation key: cord-102383-m5ahicqb authors: romano, alessandra; casazza, marco; gonella, francesco title: energy dynamics for systemic configurations of virus-host co-evolution date: 2020-05-15 journal: biorxiv doi: 10.1101/2020.05.13.092866 sha: doc_id: 102383 cord_uid: m5ahicqb virus cause multiple outbreaks, for which comprehensive tailored therapeutic strategies are still missing. virus and host cell dynamics are strictly connected, and convey in virion assembly to ensure virus spread in the body. study of the systemic behavior of virus-host interaction at the single-cell level is a scientific challenge, considering the difficulties of using experimental approaches and the limited knowledge of the behavior of emerging novel virus as a collectivity. this work focuses on positive-sense, single-stranded rna viruses, like human coronaviruses, in their virus-individual host interaction, studying the changes induced in the host cell bioenergetics. a systems-thinking representation, based on stock-flow diagramming of virus-host interaction at the cellular level, is used here for the first time to simulate the system energy dynamics. we found that reducing the energy flow which fuels virion assembly is the most affordable strategy to limit the virus spread, but its efficacy is mitigated by the contemporary inhibition of other flows relevant for the system. summary positive-single-strand ribonucleic acid ((+)ssrna) viruses can cause multiple outbreaks, for which comprehensive tailored therapeutic strategies are still missing. virus and host cell dynamics are strictly connected, generating a complex dynamics that conveys in virion assembly to ensure virus spread in the body. this work focuses on (+)ssrna viruses in their virus-individual host interaction, studying the changes induced in the host cell bioenergetics. a systems-thinking representation, based on stock-flow diagramming of virus-host interaction at the cellular level, is used here for the first time to simulate the energy dynamics of the system. by means of a computational simulator based on the systemic diagramming, we identifid host protein recycling and folded-protein synthesis as possible new leverage points. these also address different strategies depending on time setting of the therapeutic procedures. reducing the energy flow which fuels virion assembly is addressed as the most affordable strategy to limit the virus spread, but its efficacy is mitigated by the contemporary inhibition of other flows relevant for the system. counterintuitively, targeting rna replication or virion budding does not give rise to relevant systemic effects, and can possibly contribute to further virus spread. the tested combinations of multiple systemic targets are less efficient in minimizing the stock of virions than targeting only the virion assembly process, due to the systemic configuration and its evolution overtime. viral load and early addressing (in the first two days from infection) of leverage points are the most effective strategies on stock dynamics to minimize virion assembly and preserve host-cell bioenergetics. as a whole, our work points out the need for a systemic approach to design effective therapeutic strategies that should take in account the dynamic evolution of the system. virus cause multiple outbreaks, for which comprehensive tailored therapeutic strategies are still missing. virus and host cell dynamics are strictly connected, and convey in virion assembly to ensure virus spread in the body. study of the systemic behavior of virus-host interaction at the single-cell level is a scientific challenge, considering the difficulties of using experimental approaches and the limited knowledge of the behavior of emerging novel virus as a collectivity. this work focuses on positive-sense, single-stranded rna viruses, like human coronaviruses, in their virus-individual host interaction, studying the changes induced in the host cell bioenergetics. a systems-thinking representation, based on stock-flow diagramming of virus-host interaction at the cellular level, is used here for the first time to simulate the system energy dynamics. we found that reducing the energy flow which fuels virion assembly is the most affordable strategy to limit the virus spread, but its efficacy is mitigated by the contemporary inhibition of other flows relevant for the system. positive-single-strand ribonucleic acid ((+)ssrna) viruses can cause multiple outbreaks, for which comprehensive tailored therapeutic strategies are still missing. virus and host cell dynamics are strictly connected, generating a complex dynamics that conveys in virion assembly to ensure virus spread in the body. this work focuses on (+)ssrna viruses in their virus-individual host interaction, studying the changes induced in the host cell bioenergetics. a systems-thinking representation, based on stockflow diagramming of virus-host interaction at the cellular level, is used here for the first time to simulate the energy dynamics of the system. by means of a computational simulator based on the systemic diagramming, we identifid host protein recycling and folded-protein synthesis as possible new leverage points. these also address different strategies depending on time setting of the therapeutic procedures. reducing the energy flow which fuels virion assembly is addressed as the most affordable strategy to limit the virus spread, but its efficacy is mitigated by the contemporary inhibition of other flows relevant for the system. counterintuitively, targeting rna replication or virion budding does not give rise to relevant systemic effects, and can possibly contribute to further virus spread. the tested combinations of multiple systemic targets are less efficient in minimizing the stock of virions than targeting only the virion assembly process, due to the systemic configuration and its evolution overtime. viral load and early addressing (in the first two days from infection) of leverage points are the most effective strategies on stock dynamics to minimize virion assembly and preserve host-cell bioenergetics. as a whole, our work points out the need for a systemic approach to design effective therapeutic strategies that should take in account the dynamic evolution of the system. interaction between a (+)ssrna virus and the host cell and therefore addressing effective intervention strategies. starting from the knowledge of relevant processes in (+ss)rna virus replication, transcription, translation, virions budding and shedding and their energy costs (reported in supplementary methods table 1) , we built up a systems-thinking (st) based energy diagram of the virus-host interaction. figure 1 shows the stock-flow diagram for the system at issue, where each stock was quantified in terms of embedded energy of the corresponding variable. symbols are borrowed from the energy language 51, 52 : shields indicate the stocks, big solid arrows the processes and line arrows the flows, whereas dashed lines indicate the controls exerted by the stocks on the processes. all stocks, flows and processes are expressed in terms of the energy embedded, transmitted and used during the infection. we used atp-equivalents (atp-eq) as energy unit 53 referred to cellular costs, by using the number of atp (or gtp and other atp-equivalents) hydrolysis events as a proxy for energetic cost 53, 54 . the dynamic determination of flows was based on the knowledge of characteristic time-scales of well-established biological processes (for more details see supplementary methods). the output flows j4 and j5 were set to be effective only if the value of the respective stocks q3 and q5 is higher than a threshold, as represented by the two switch symbols in the diagram. the stock q1 represents the embedded energy of resources addressed to protein synthesis in the host cell. the dynamics of allocation for protein synthesis depends on the cell bioenergetics, e.g., the number of mitochondria, ox-phos activity levels, and the cell cycle phase [55] [56] [57] (for more details, see supplementary methods). in the absence of virus, energy flows from q1 (flows j1, j2a and j2b) to produce short-half-life proteins (stock q2a) and long-half-life proteins (stock q2b), whose synthesis, degradation and secretion follow dynamic stationary conditions. in particular, typical of the specialized cells such as those of the pulmonary epithelium, there is a flow of proteins destined for degradation and recycling through the recruitment of autophagic receptors or organelles or proteasomes (identified in the diagram by the flows j21a and j21b, supplementary methods table 1 ). the outflow of folded, fully functional proteins addressed to secretion or surface exposure is first, we investigated the system dynamics under different initial conditions, exploring the possible role of different initial viral loads (figure 2 ). in the configuration of initial null viral load (q3 stock value=0) the value of stocks q1, q2a and q2b were constant and the system behavior was stationary (figure 2a) . assuming a different viral loads (time zero) in the 10-10,000 virions range, we found that there is a threshold in the initial viral load for triggering the progressive reduction of q1, whose amount could in turn trigger the cell death in different ways. apoptosis is a cellular process requiring energy, and a deflection in q1, as shown in figure when a (+)ssrna virus enters the single host cell, the q3 stock is fed, and its proteins can interact with the host proteome to sustain rna replication. based on previous works in the field 59-63 , we identified a time delay of 2 to 6 hours required to record changes in the q5 stock. moreover, the value of q5 varies over the time due to changes occurred at a different timepoints in the stocks q2b, q3 and q4. to be effective, a therapeutic strategy should limit the outflows of virions, j7 and/or j50. however, minimization of j7 seems to be counter-effective in our simulation, due to the increase of q5 as consequence of the feedback action in the virus replication (vr) process. the minimization of j50 prevents the outflow (viral shedding) from q5 without stopping its growth. at the same time, this leads to increased resources diverting from q1 and q2b that could promote the cell death, with consequent spread of the virions in the environment. arising from targeting j5 was mitigated by the combination with reduction of j50 or j21 (figure 3) . the partial reduction of j21, alone or in combination, did not change significantly the dynamic growth of q5, induced increase of q3 at day 5, though it could prevent a reduction of q1, to preserve the cell bioenergetics and preventing the cell death by atp lack. we also simulated the effect of applying the same external inputs at different times: after 1 (extended data figure 4 ), 3 (extended data figure 5 ) or 5 days (extended data figure 6 ) from the initial infection, alone or in combination (figure 4) . application of external forcing factors at day 1, day 3 or day 5 could affect in a non-linear way the system response, with the largest efficacy targeting j5 (figures 4-5) . the combination of external driving forces acting on j5 and j21 did not result to be significantly synergic, while targeting j50 and j21 increased the q5 stock value instead of the expected reduction. it is worth stressing that this kind of behavior is a typical systemic feature, where an intervention on a specific local process may lead to counterintuitive rearrangements in the system dynamics as a whole. late suppression of j5 and j50 at day 5 could reduce only the stock values of q4. only early full reduction of j5 (by day 1) could significantly limit the growth of q5, while the combination of contemporary suppression of j5 and j50 could not prevent q5 growth (figure 5) . thus, application of external driving forces at different timepoints is expected to model additional resilience configurations. in this work, we approached the host-virus interaction dynamics as a systemic problem and, for the first time in the field, we used combined systems thinking tools as a conceptual framework to build up a systemic description of the viral action and host response, critically depending on the existing metabolic environment. the complex dynamic behavior was described in terms of underlying accessible patterns, hierarchical feedback loops, self-organization, and sensitive dependence on external parameters, that were analytically computed by a simulator. the following novelties were addressed: i) the use of energy language as a common quantitative unit for different biological cells and used mass spectrometry to measure protein-protein interactions 6 . with this experimental approach, they identified 332 interactions between viral and host proteins, and noted 69 existing drugs, known to target host proteins or associated pathways, which interact with sars-cov-2, addressing the importance to target the host-virus interaction at the level of rna translation. there are known advantages of in silico modelling the action of therapeutic agents on known diseases through agent-based modelling 74 . however, the literature evidenced some intrinsic limitations on the choice of parameters, like the size of investigated populations 75 , while major problems are related to model validation 75, 76 , also requiring to supplement the models with adequate formal ontologies 77 . thanks to its abstract nature, stock-flow description can be used in a wide range of different fields, realizing the conceptual bridge that connects the language of biological systems to that of ecology. our approach unveils the potential of systems thinking for the study of other diseases or classes of disease, since it appears more and more clear how some incurable pathologies can be described only by adopting a more comprehensive systemic approach, in which the network of relationships between biological elements are treated in quantitative way similar to that applied in this paper. the method used to study the dynamics of the virus-host interaction system is structured in 3 basic steps, namely, the development of a flow-stock diagram, that describes the virus-host interactions, the development of a virus-host systemic simulator, and, finally, its calibration and validation (extended data, figure 1) . a typical systems thinking diagram is formed of stocks, flows and processes. stocks are countable extensive variables qi, i=1,2,...,n, relevant to the study at issue, that constitute an n-ple of numbers that at any time represents a state of the system. a stock may change its value only upon its inflows and/or its outflows, represented by arrows entering or exiting the stock. processes are any occurrence capable to alter -either quantitatively or qualitatively -a flow, by the action of one or more of the system elements. in a stationary state of the system, stocks values are either constant or regularly oscillating. in the dynamics of a system, stocks act as shock absorbers, buffers, and time-delayers. processes are all what happens inside a system that allows the stationarity of its state, or that may perturb the state itself. to occur, a process must be activated by another driver, acting on the flow where the process is located. these interaction flows may be regarded as flows of information, that control the occurring processes and so the value and nature of the matter flows. the pattern of the feedbacks acting in the system configurations is the feature that utlimately defines the systems dynamics. we adopted an energyy approach, where stocks, flows and processes are expressed in terms of the energy embedded, transmitted and used, respectively, during the system operation. the equations, that characterize the flows relevant to the diagram, are typical of dynamic st analysis 51, 78 , and their setting up is linked in many respects to the energy network language 79 . in this approach, each flow depends on the state variables qi by relationships of the kind dqi/dt=kf(qj), i,j=1,...,n, where n is the number of stocks in the system. given a set of proper initial conditions for the stocks (i.e., the initial system state) and a properly chosen set of phenomenological coefficients k, the set of interconnected equations will be treated by standard finite-different method, taking care of choosing a time-step short enough to evidence the possible dynamics of any of the studied processes. the coefficients ki are calculated using data on the dynamics of any single stock, in particular, by estimating the flows and the stocks during the time interval set for the simulation steps (as described in supplementary methods). when different flows co-participate in a process, a single coefficient will gather all the actions that concur to the intensity of the outcoming flow(s). these phenomenological coefficients are not, therefore, related to specific biophysical phenomena or processes, but are set to describe how and how fast any part of the system react to a change in any of the other ones. in general, our model may be then regarded as based on a population-level model (plm) as defined by 80 , which can be run at different scales from organism to sub-cellular ones (see for example 58, 81, 82 ), that already increased the existing knowledge on the life cycle of different infections, like for example the ones generated by hiv and hepatitis c virus 83 . to obtain the simulations, we used the open-source computation software scilab (https://www.scilab.org). the model simulations are developed based on the choice of the initial stock conditions, as well as of the parameters ki (see supplementary information for further details) . a model is valid as far as its output reproduces the reality, and systems modelling must be tested under two aspects, concerned with the capability to correctly describe the system and its dynamics, respectively 84 extended data figure 1 workflow and study design extended data figure 3 effects of targeting leverage points upon the applcation of generic external driving forces d at day 0 interaction of the innate immune system with positive-strand rna virus replication organelles genetic variability and evolution of hepatitis e virus genomic analysis of the emergence, evolution, and spread of human respiratory rna viruses host factors in positive-strand rna virus genome replication antiviral drug targets of single-stranded rna viruses causing chronic human diseases a sars-cov-2 protein interaction map reveals targets for drug repurposing coronaviruses -drug discovery and therapeutic options cytoplasmic viral replication complexes mutational and fitness landscapes of an rna virus revealed through population sequencing the role of mutational robustness in rna virus evolution quasispecies diversity determines pathogenesis through cooperative interactions in a viral population 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bacterial populations: an in silico study over a spatially extended agent based model replicating complex agent based models, a formidable task agent-based modelling of socio-ecological systems: models, projects and ontologies systems and models: complexity, dynamics, evolution, sustainability. (books on demand gmbh explanations of ecological relationships with energy systems concepts combining molecular observations and microbial ecosystem modeling: a practical guide formal aspects of model validity and validation in system dynamics the philosophy and epistemology of simulation: a review competing interests. authors declare no competing financial interests. the author to whom correspondence and material requests should be addressed is:dr. marco casazza key: cord-253548-izya7nws authors: catchpole, ken; bowie, paul; fouquet, sarah; rivera, joy; hignett, sue title: frontiers in human factors: embedding specialists in multi-disciplinary efforts to improve healthcare. date: 2020-09-09 journal: int j qual health care doi: 10.1093/intqhc/mzaa108 sha: doc_id: 253548 cord_uid: izya7nws despite the application of a huge range of human factors (hf) principles in a growing range of care contexts, there is much more that could be done to realize this expertise for patient benefit, staff wellbeing and organizational performance. healthcare has struggled to embrace systems safety approaches, mis-applied or misinterpreted others, and has stuck to a range of outdated and potentially counter-productive myths even has safety science has developed. one consequence of these persistent misunderstandings is that few opportunities exist in clinical settings for qualified hf professionals. instead, hf has been applied by clinicians and others, to highly variable degrees – sometimes great success, but frequently in limited and sometimes counter-productive ways. meanwhile, hf professionals have struggled to make a meaningful impact on frontline care and have had little career structure or support. however, in the last few years, embedded clinical hf practitioners have begun to have considerable success that are now being supported and amplified by professional networks. the recent covid-19 experiences confirm this. closer collaboration between healthcare and hf professionals will result in significant and ultimately beneficial changes to both professions and to clinical care. human factors (hf) perspectives are familiar to many in healthcare, and thousands of people are exploring or benefiting from the value those perspectives bring to a multitude of care contexts. hf has been applied in acute care 1 , primary care 2,3 , emergency care 4 , home care 5 , device design 6 , health it 7 , health systems design 8 , architecture 9 , simulation 10 , education 11, 12 , quality improvement 13 , safety 14 , and reliability 15 . studies have analyzed systems of work 16 , teamwork 17 , decision making 18 , displays 19 , device interactions 20 , risks 21 , threats 22 , performance shaping factors 23 , environmental and organizational approaches 24, 25 , and regulatory influences 26 . the methods of direct observation, interviews, task analysis, usability studies, human reliability analysis, and incident analysis have been frequently, reliability and creatively applied. however, there is much more that could be done to realize the full potential of hf principles and expertise for patient benefit, staff wellbeing and organizational performance 27 . this has raised a number of questions about how hf knowledge and expertise could be integrated better into clinical work. prior to the application in healthcare, hf knowledge and expertise had arisen mostly from either consumer products and software, or heavily engineered industries 28 . in these industries, human actions are often carried out through the technology, with the hf focus on integrating humans, processes and technologies into a 'top-down' work system with known inputs, goals and constraints. clinical systems are not necessarily like those other industries, though there remains a need design for human use. healthcare is more complex, with multiple different goals and outcomes, a huge variation in inputs, work contexts, procedures and necessary variation in process (to account for individual patient needs). new procedures and technologies are continually being introduced. it was never purposely engineered but has grown organically over thousands of years to meet a range of human needs. every healthcare organization is different, and procedures can vary from provider to provider and patient to patient. how the system works is opaque and it can be difficult to understand what is, or what should be, happening. the particular, and arguably unique, constraints and demands in healthcare mean that while the principles of systems safety science in general, and hf in particular, are similar, their application and mechanisms of effect can be very different. while healthcare also contains many different groups who have a strong interest in improving human work (e.g. hr professionals, organisational development specialists, clinical risk, patient safety and quality improvement advisors), the hf professional can provide much-needed 'added-value' to multidisciplinary team efforts to jointly optimise overall organisational performance and human wellbeing. this paper explores the application of hf in relation to those that apply it; what we need to do to be more effective; how this might fundamentally change both healthcare and hf professions; and the opportunities for service transformation it might present. despite much progress in the application of systems thinking to clinical work, there remains a focus on "error" as a clinical-professional issue to be "fixed" rather than signifying on the deeper causes of error, within the clinical system. instead, the psychology, engineering, sociology and other expertise necessary to address the deep systems problems associated with accidental harms has often been simplified to lookalike principles that sadly missed important details 29 . what might be termed, pseudo-hf approaches have arisen 30, 31 where systems-level thinking is eschewed for well-meaning but limited training, or other attempts at direct behavioral change that apply hf tools but do not consider systems complexity. the hf profession focuses on integrating humans and systems, and brings with it knowledge and experience of a range of concepts, principles, standards and methods. these are arguably better suited to understanding and resolving many of the problems and issues routinely experienced in highly complex, dynamic healthcare systems. consequently, hf professionals can spend significant amounts of time and energy challenging the myths and misunderstandings which continue to prevail, particularly amongst key groups and leaders, and trying to persuade some to unlearn what they think they know about hfe. among the widely-held and stubbornly persistent myths are: • the myth of the individual practitioner. instead of clinical outcomes being driven by a single clinician, they are driven by the collaboration of many individuals across a wide number of disciplines. this myth is perpetuated in, for example, physician league tables, despite clear evidence around the importance of teamwork, and organizations in outcomes 32 . • the myth of the perfect system. when harm happens, the tendency is to believe that this was an exception in an otherwise safe system. however, extensive observational evidence demonstrates that clinical systems are far from perfect 33 and require a wide range of work-arounds and trade-offs every day to be successful 34 .. • the myth that reliable care processes lead to safe systems. safety in complex care situations is an emergent property of the whole system, while reliability is a property of individual system components. every system component can function exactly as intended (reliability) but the complex interactions between components can lead to an unsafe system. 35 . • the myth of 'human error'. as people are always implicated in accidents, there has been an assumption that "removing" human error (or humans), would prevent harm. again, multiple safety scientists demonstrate that this a simplistic view of accident causation as it fails to acknowledge the everyday trade-offs humans in the system are required to make. indeed, it is the ability for humans to vary what they do that is responsible for everyday effective systems function. • the myth of standardization and control of variation. a further perturbation of these myths is the need to control individual human variation, and the ubiquitous call for "standardization". however, given that every patient is different, every unit, every specialty, and every organization is also different, variation is not only required, but is an essential part of patient-centered care. • the "zero" myth. though "zero" harms ("never events") may be useful goals, they are, by their nature, unattainable 29 . instead, risks, costs and the number of patients we treat need to be traded against each other. a system where zero harm could be achieved would have such a huge financial burden, and would have such a profound effect on care delivery, that it would fail in a range of other ways. the risk / benefit considerations and outcomes in response to the recent coivd-19 pandemic are an excellent example of how finances and treatment needs need to be carefully balanced with risks to patients and staff, often in the absence of clear data. • the myth of linear determinism. a further fallacious assumption is that process and outcome are directly related; thus a good outcome means everything went well (and no further attention is needed), while bad outcome must mean something went wrong, which requires investigation. again, safety science demonstrates the inadequacy of these assumptions. many things can and do go wrong in the care of a patient, but few affect outcomes, because the people in the system are always adapting to moment-to-moment demands in ways that technologies, policies and processes do not.. instead of understanding healthcare systems as complex and adaptive, where trade-offs judgements are being made between safety, cost and throughput all the time 36 , the pervading myths have led to the rigid application of approach or tools regardless of the context. the use of quality processes derived from highly engineered systems such as fmea and lean/6 sigma suit some contexts and not others, and at least has required adaptation for healthcare 13, 37 . checklists are a complex socio-technical intervention requiring understanding of the tasks, risks, design and use, so evaluating a checklist only on patient outcomes does not help understand the task, team, organizational or clinical specialty variations necessary for it to be adopted and effective 38, 39 . crew resource management or non-technical skills training is often delivered in the absence of appropriate organizational support, and without a sufficient understanding of the underlying engineering that made those approaches successful in aviation. there is no doubt that all are valuable but fail when applied without consideration of the wider systems in which they will be used. learning from other industries benefits from translation, based on an understanding of the mechanism-of-effect and differing constraints. this is where hf expertise can help. seeing hf as a set of 'tools' that can be 'applied' in a rule-based way, or trained in short course will have narrow benefits, and vastly under-appreciates the value that the discipline can bring. hf principles can be applied across highly diverse contexts, organizations and units, informing both improvement in complex systems, and the methods to hypothesize and evaluate them. the expertise of hf is in understanding the potential effects of interventions, and the selection of the appropriate evaluation from a wide range of methods. some clinicians who practice hf have embraced this more nuanced understanding of hf; some have not; and a few have been deeply resistant to this broader systems perspective. we need to think carefully about how to enhance the enthusiasm for hf, while challenging the range of misperceptions that limit its value. the use of hf tools by clinicians is an excellent place to start and should be encouraged, and supported with higher level hf. then, we need to find ways in which hf professionals and clinicians can work together to bring the right hf principles to bear in the right place, at the right time. despite a growing recognition of the need and value of hf in clinical work across the world, one consequence of the persistent misunderstanding of systems safety science is that few opportunities exist in clinical settings for qualified hf professionals, limiting the availability of appropriately sophisticated hf expertise 27 . until the fda mandated hf as part of device design in 2011 40 , hf healthcare work was funded through research, with much of it based at universities rather than hospitals, on a by-project basis rather than being applied full-time alongside and in support of clinicians. given that return-on-investment can be difficult to calculate, and effect on outcomes difficult to measure in a non-linear system, a direct business case is still hard to make. however, this did not prevent the expansion of quality improvement and patient specialists, who are mostly unqualified in their subject matter area, and lack appropriate professional development and regulation, unlike their hf counterparts. while the fda regulatory demands have vastly increased the number of hf experts within the healthcare industry, and there is much that could be learned from this about the development of and spread of hf expertise, device design is often far removed from clinical practice. professional healthcare hf practice outside of device development, has therefore been disparate, ad-hoc and precarious, with no formal career structure. these professional and financial constraints have also limited the ability of hf professionals to understand "work as done", the complexity of healthcare systems, or the new language and approaches required to address clinical needs. this has created a chicken-and-egg problem, where hf professionals have not been employed in care organizations, because there has been a limited understanding of what they can do, no clear and immediate application, no business case, no clear evidence base, and without day-to-day frontline experience of work-as-done they have not always been effective. a "simple checklist" or " training" are easier to package and demonstrate value, no matter how simplistic (and occasionally thoroughly erroneous 41 ), than a multitude of more appropriate approaches to improvement in complex adaptive systems 42 . this is a significant barrier to progress, but it has begun to change. in the last few years, hospitals across the world have begun to employ clinically embedded hf professionals -that is, fully qualified hf practitioners who work alongside clinicians every day to apply hf methods and perspectives. countries that have embedded hf practitioners include the usa, canada, australia, uk, and portugal, and most likely many others. positions have also been appearing in in regulatory roles. effective applied clinical practice thus requires both the technical demands of understanding when and how to apply hf approaches; and the understanding of the complexity of clinical context of a given application. healthcare organizations need to move beyond the underlying fixation on human errors and a lack of systems thinking. they need to know how they can employ hfe specialists and upskill key parts of the workforce through accredited routes at comparative low cost. they also need to know what sort of hf expertise to employ, and when. while there is formal route for hf professional accreditation (through professional societies such as hfes, ciehf, iea), few clinicians, patient safety administrators or quality improvement specialists who practice have any formal qualifications, training or appropriate cpd around risk/safety/hfe when compared with many of their equivalents in other industrial sectors. clinicians who champion hf causes would benefit from appropriate accreditation, and access to and wider support from qualified hf professionals. they may also benefit from understanding the limitations of and adaptions for popular but limited paradigms such as checklists, teamwork training, or non-technical skills. for example, effective teamwork skills in cardiac surgery are likely to be very different from the teamwork skills in robotic surgery 43 . surgeons or anesthesiologists are often well placed to lead this type of approach, but do not always appreciate how these skills fit into the broader clinical systems picture. broader and equally powerful principles -such as safety-ii, user-centered design, task analysis, selection and training, controls and displays, situational awareness, anthropometry -need to be applied in different ways to solve new problems and / or translate to a new context. they are also continually updating as our theoretical and methodological knowledge improves. in order to be effective at a local level, expertise needs to distributed rather than centralized. rather than working independently, we need to support the application of hf locally with national and international networks. often, clinicians and embedded hf practitioners work alone, or in small groups, often on the same problems as others in other organizations (for example, on clabsi, or failure-to-rescue, or retained foreign objects). there may be common themes, but solutions might look very different in different organizations, or even across different units. the ability to share learning and best practices, many of which will not end up in clinical publications, could have a powerful effect in spreading -and especially translating -good practices for different work contexts. such a network would also support embedded hf professionals who may be otherwise isolated from their peers and from new safety science, practice, or methodological development. there have also been a number of successful organizational approaches to support both clinicians applying hf and hf professionals working in healthcare. most notably the clinical human factors group (www.chfg.org) that originally worked to introduce aviation-style approaches but has subsequently begun to embrace the wider systems view. meanwhile, the uk's chartered institute (www.ciehf.org) has been increasingly bringing together clinicians and professionals work on specific projects, and has defined a set of skills, competence levels and training appropriate for clinical practice. in the usa, the human factors and ergonomics society (www.hfes.org) runs an annual conference devoted to healthcare human factors, while also supporting a specific healthcare technical group (www.hctg.hfes.org). meanwhile, the human factors transforming health network (hfth) (www.hfthnetwork.org) has been developed specifically to support embedded clinical hf practice, through a network of practitioners, clinical champions, and organizations aiming to deploy professional hf expertise. we anticipate increasing alignment of professional hf and clinical hf groups as the two fields continue to integrate. thus, despite the challenges of embedding appropriate, professional expertise into frontline clinical work, there is much to be positive about in the future. the rapid response to the covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated this. the spread of covid-19 exposed a range of challenges with the development, design, dissemination, education, assurance and integration of safe, effective healthcare delivery for a range of clinical contexts. this required substantial adaptation based on complex trade-off decisions between care demands, resources, risks and finances, often without clear authoritative evidence, but from continually evolving information. this can be seen as a 'micro systems' problem, where training based on the availability of specific personal protective equipment (ppe) required day-to-day adaptation by staff, based on varying threats and availability; and it can be seen as "macro" systems issue demonstrating close coupling of acute health, population health, society, commerce and politics. at a micro level, the availability of embedded practitioners in acute care demonstrated a range of ways in which hf expertise can be rapidly applied to help clinicians deal with the problem. it was possible to quickly disseminate this information via the hfth professional network. this work has included training in the use of ppe; designing icons to help with donning and doffing; working to support staff new to icu through decision support tools; prone-positioning protocols and checklists; covid-19 specific daily briefing checklists; supporting virtual visits; developing transportation plans; limiting exposure risks from suspected or confirmed patients; developing new protocols for emergency responses. the uk ciehf rapidly produced guidance on the design of ventilators and the design of work procedures for care teams in all sectors (https://covid19.ergonomics.org.uk/). several professionals have taken key leadership roles in the responses in their organizations. others were invited to be involved, including, importantly, in field hospitals where an influx of excess ventilated patients were/are expected. in most cases, it required the hf professional to actively insert themselves into the work, where their perspectives were valued. at a macro level, practices contributed both to the adaptive flexibility required for resilient systems (for example, by taking the load associated with protocol designs off already stretched clinicians), and to the wider understanding of how resilience can be built into future healthcare systems. this includes information sharing; risk perceptions; risk, cost, and throughput trade-offs; the need for adaptive skills rather than invariant process following; cross-training; planning for adaptability; and even the use of social media in the absence of other clinical guidance. indeed, this demonstrated exactly why the linear deterministic view of healthcare systems -where tasks are standardized, variability is controlled, and deviations are "errors" -is a deleterious over-simplification of healthcare work, even in otherwise 'normal' function. it is people that hold complex systems together; and the goal of is to understand and support the people working in the system to be adaptable and effective, rather than seeing them as a hazard 44 . in short, covid-19 demonstrates that the "new normal" has benefitted hugely from embedded hf expertise, but the key question is how to build on and sustain this welcome development beyond a pandemic situation. the ultimate goal of everyone involved in the application of hf principles in healthcare should be to improve the care we deliver to our patients and the working lives of our healthcare professionals. we need to understand and accept that there are multiple routes in, each with different requirements, and each need to be addressed with appropriate professional and practice support. areas where clinicians and others have applied hf techniques have been most notably in teamwork and teamwork training, simulation training, checklists, education and training, hazard identification and risk assessment, safety culture measurement and discussion, and team-based learning from events (table 1 contains links to some practical resources in these areas). however, a focus on these particular interventions are also symptomatic of the limited nature of application and the persistence of debunked safety science myths. hf professionals, on the other hand, have often struggled to bring their expertise to bear for meaningful clinical benefit. however, organizational, financial and evidence-based pressures are bringing about positive practice changes that is enabling embedded hf professional practice, and closer collaboration with clinical professionals, who now have access to appropriate professional certification and supportive professional networks dedicated to the application of healthcare hf. clinical systems offer vast potential for both specific improvement for patient and staff benefit, and as a natural laboratory for systems safety methodological and theoretical innovation. the interaction of hf and clinical work has already changed both professions. healthcare is at the forefront of hf frontiers; and hf is at the forefront of clinical frontiers. this is an exciting possibility that everyone involved is keen to realize. usa) www.hfes.org healthcare technical group www.hctg.hfes.org human factors and ergonomics society of australia www.ergonomics.org.au international ergonomics association www.iea.cc resilience engineering association www.resilience-engineering-association.org clinical support networks clinical human factors group www.chfg.org human factors transforming healthcare network www twelve tips for hf human factors in healthcare white paper systems thinking safety culture discussion cards 2dlb6c2 from safety i to safety ii: a white paper a human factors subsystems approach to trauma care human factors and ergonomics for primary care human factors in general practiceearly thoughts on the educational focus for specialty training and beyond human factors and simulation in emergency medicine health care human factors/ergonomics fieldwork in home and community settings human factors in medical device design: methods, principles, and guidelines a usability and safety analysis of electronic health records: a multi-center study resilient health care: turning patient safety on its head using an integrative mock-up simulation approach for evidence-based evaluation of operating room design prototypes leveraging health care simulation technology for human factors research: closing the gap between lab and bedside a uk perspective on human factors and patient safety education in pharmacy curricula twelve tips for embedding human factors and ergonomics principles in healthcare education human factors and ergonomics and quality improvement science: integrating approaches for safety in healthcare human factors systems approach to healthcare quality and patient safety building high reliability teams: progress and some reflections on teamwork training work systems analysis of sterile processing: decontamination the effect of teamwork training on team performance and clinical outcome in elective orthopaedic surgery: a controlled interrupted time series study impact of robotic surgery on decision making: perspectives of surgical teams evaluation of user-interface alert displays for clinical decision support systems for sepsis the mixed blessings of smart infusion devices and health care it human factors-based risk analysis to improve the safety of doffing enhanced personal protective equipment system factors affecting patient safety in the or: an 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observational study protocol engineering a safer world -systems thinking applied to safety resilient health care: turning patient safety on its head effect of a "lean" intervention to improve safety processes and outcomes on a surgical emergency unit the problem with checklists participatory design of a preliminary safety checklist for general practice applying human factors and usability engineering to medical devices: guidance for industry and food and drug administration staff changes in safety attitude and relationship to decreased postoperative morbidity and mortality following implementation of a checklist-based surgical safety intervention complexity science in healthcare -aspirations, approaches, applications and accomplishments: a white paper integration of robotic surgery into routine practice and impacts on communication, collaboration, and decision making: a realist process evaluation protocol overcoming covid-19: what can human factors and ergonomics offer? key: cord-018723-qd9ps3zb authors: kizza, joseph migga title: introduction to computer network vulnerabilities date: 2017-02-21 journal: guide to computer network security doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-55606-2_4 sha: doc_id: 18723 cord_uid: qd9ps3zb system vulnerabilities are weaknesses in the software or hardware on a server or a client that can be exploited by a determined intruder to gain access to or shut down a network. donald pipkin defines system vulnerability as a condition, a weakness of or an absence of security procedure, or technical, physical, or other controls that could be exploited by a threat [1]. the frequency of attacks in the last several years and the speed and spread of these attacks indicate serious security vulnerability problems in our network systems. there is no definitive list of all possible sources of these system vulnerabilities. many scholars and indeed many security incident reporting agencies, such as bugtraq, the mailing list for vulnerabilities; cert/cc, the us computer emergency response team; ntbugtraq, the mailing list for windows security; rus-cert, the german computer emergency response team; and us doe-ciac, the us department of energy computer incident advisory capability, have called attention to not only one but multiple factors that contribute to these security problems and pose obstacles to the security solutions. among the most frequently mentioned sources of security vulnerability problems in computer networks are design flaws, poor security management, incorrect implementation, internet technology vulnerability, the nature of intruder activity, the difficulty of fixing vulnerable systems, the limits of effectiveness of reactive solutions, and social engineering [2] . the two major components of a computer system, hardware and software, quite often have design flaws. hardware systems are less susceptible to design flaws than their software counterparts owing to less complexity, which makes them easier to test; limited number of possible inputs and expected outcomes, again making it easy to test and verify; and the long history of hardware engineering. but even with all these factors backing up hardware engineering, because of complexity in the new computer systems, design flaws are still common. but the biggest problems in system security vulnerability are due to software design flaws. a number of factors cause software design flaws, including overlooking security issues all together. however, three major factors contribute a great deal to software design flaws: human factors, software complexity, and trustworthy software sources [3] . in the human factor category, poor software performance can be a result of the following: 1. memory lapses and attentional failures: for example, someone was supposed to have removed or added a line of code, tested, or verified, but did not because of simple forgetfulness. 2. rush to finish: the result of pressure, most often from management, to get the product on the market either to cut development costs or to meet a client deadline can cause problems. 3. overconfidence and use of nonstandard or untested algorithms: before algorithms are fully tested by peers, they are put into the product line because they seem to have worked on a few test runs. 4. malice: software developers, like any other professionals, have malicious people in their ranks. bugs, viruses, and worms have been known to be embedded and downloaded in software, as is the case with trojan horse software, which boots itself at a timed location. as we will see in sect. 8.4, malice has traditionally been used for vendetta, personal gain (especially monetary), and just irresponsible amusement. although it is possible to safeguard against other types of human errors, it is very difficult to prevent malice. 5. complacency: when either an individual or a software producer has significant experience in software development, it is easy to overlook certain testing and other error control measures in those parts of software that were tested previously in a similar or related product, forgetting that no one software product can conform to all requirements in all environments. both software professionals and nonprofessionals who use software know the differences between software programming and hardware engineering. in these differences underlie many of the causes of software failure and poor performance. consider the following: 1. complexity: unlike hardwired programming in which it is easy to exhaust the possible outcomes on a given set of input sequences, in software programming a similar program may present billions of possible outcomes on the same input sequence. therefore, in software programming, one can never be sure of all the possibilities on any given input sequence. 2. difficult testing: there will never be a complete set of test programs to check software exhaustively for all bugs for a given input sequence. 3. ease of programming: the fact that software programming is easy to learn encourages many people with little formal training and education in the field to start developing programs, but many are not knowledgeable about good programming practices or able to check for errors. 4. misunderstanding of basic design specifications: this affects the subsequent design phases including coding, documenting, and testing. it also results in improper and ambiguous specifications of major components of the software and in ill-chosen and poorly defined internal program structures. there are thousands of software sources for the millions of software products on the market today. however, if we were required to name well-known software producers, very few of us would succeed in naming more than a handful. yet we buy software products every day without even ever minding their sources. most importantly, we do not care about the quality of that software, the honesty of the anonymous programmer, and of course its reliability as long as it does what we want it to do. even if we want to trace the authorship of the software product, it is impossible because software companies are closed within months of their opening. chances are when a software product is 2 years old, its producer is likely to be out of business. in addition to the difficulties in tracing the producers of software who go out of business as fast as they come in, there is also fear that such software may not even have been tested at all. the growth of the internet and the escalating costs of software production have led many small in-house software developers to use the marketplace as a giant testing laboratory through the use of beta testing, shareware, and freeware. shareware and freeware have a high potential of bringing hostile code into trusted systems. for some strange reason, the more popular the software product gets, the less it is tested. as software products make market inroads, their producers start thinking of producing new versions and releases with little to no testing of current versions. this leads to the growth of what is called a common genesis software product, where all its versions and releases are based on a common code. if such a code has not been fully tested, which is normally the case, then errors are carried through from version to version and from release to release. in the last several years, we have witnessed the growth of the open-source movement. it has been praised as a novel idea to break the monopoly and price gauging by big software producers and most important as a timely solution to poor software testing. those opposed to the movement have criticized it for being a source of untrusted and many times untested software. despite the wails of the critics, major open-source products such as linux operating system have turned out with few security flaws; still there are fears that hackers can look at the code and perhaps find a way to cause mischief or steal information. there has been a rise recently in trojan horses inserted into open-source code. in fact security experts are not recommending running readily available programs such as md5 hashes to ensure that the code hasn't been altered. using md5 hashes and similar programs such as md4, sha, and sha-1 continually compares codes generated by "healthy" software to hashes of programs in the field, thus exposing the trojans. according to the recent cert advisory, crackers are increasingly inserting trojans into the source code for tcpdump, a utility that monitors network traffic, and libpcap, a packet capture library tool [4] . however, according to the recent study by the aberdeen group, open-source software now accounts for more than half of all security advisories published in the past year by the computer emergency response team (cert). also according to industry study reports, open-source software commonly used in linux, unix, and network routing equipment accounted for 16 of the 29 security advisories during the first 10 months of 2002, and there is an upswing in new virus and trojan horse warnings for unix, linux, mac os x, and open-source software [4] . new developments in software engineering are spearheading new developments such as software reuse and software reengineering. software reuse is the integration and use of software assets from a previously developed system. it is the process in which old or updated software such as library, component, requirements and design documents, and design patterns is used along with new software. both software reengineering and reuse are hailed for cutting down on the escalating development and testing costs. they have brought efficiency by reducing time spent designing or coding, popularized standardization, and led to common "look-and-feel" between applications. they have made debugging easier through use of thoroughly tested designs and code. however, both software techniques have the potential to introduce security flaws in systems. among some of the security flaws that have been introduced into programming is first the mismatch where reused requirement specifications and designs may not completely match the real situation at hand and nonfunctional characteristics of code may not match those of the intended recipient. second, when using object programming, it is important to remember that objects are defined with certain attributes, and any new application using objects defined in terms of the old ones will inherit all their attributes. in chap. 6, we will discuss the many security problems associated with script programming. yet there is now momentum in script programming to bring more dynamism into web programming. scripting suffers from a list of problems including inadequate searching and/or browsing mechanisms before any interaction between the script code and the server or client software, side effects from software assets that are too large or too small for the projected interface, and undocumented interfaces. security management is both a technical and an administrative security process that involves security policies and controls that the organization decides to put in place to provide the required level of protection. in addition, it also involves security monitoring and evaluation of the effectiveness of those policies. the most effective way to meet these goals is to implement security risk assessment through a security policy and secure access to network resources through the use of firewalls and strong cryptography. these and others offer the security required for the different information systems in the organization in terms of integrity, confidentiality, and availability of that information. security management by itself is a complex process; however, if it is not well organized, it can result in a security nightmare for the organization. poor security management is a result of little control over security implementation, administration, and monitoring. it is a failure in having solid control of the security situation of the organization when the security administrator does not know who is setting the organization's security policy, administering security compliance, and who manages system security configurations and is in charge of security event and incident handling. in addition to the disarray in the security administration, implementation, and monitoring, a poor security administration team may even lack a plan for the wireless component of the network. as we will see in chap. 17, the rapid growth of wireless communication has brought with it serious security problems. there are so many things that can go wrong with security if security administration is poor. unless the organization has a solid security administration team with a sound security policy and secure security implementation, the organization's security may be compromised. an organization's system security is as good as its security policy and its access control policies and procedures and their implementation. good security management is made up of a number of implementable security components that include risk management, information security policies and procedures, standards, guidelines, information classification, security monitoring, and security education. these core components serve to protect the organization's resources: • a risk analysis will identify these assets, discover the threats that put them at risk, and estimate the possible damage and potential loss a company could endure if any of these threats become real. the results of the risk analysis help management construct a budget with the necessary funds to protect the recognized assets from their identified threats and develop applicable security policies that provide direction for security activities. security education takes this information to each and every employee. • security policies and procedures to create, implement, and enforce security issues that may include people and technology. • standards and guidelines to find ways, including automated solution for creating, updating, and tracking compliance of security policies across the organization. • information classification to manage the search, identification, and reduction of system vulnerabilities by establishing security configurations. • security monitoring to prevent and detect intrusions, consolidate event logs for future log and trend analysis, manage security events in real time, manage parameter security including multiple firewall reporting systems, and analyze security events enterprise-wide. • security education to bring security awareness to every employee of the organization and teach them their individual security responsibility. incorrect implantation very often is a result of incompatible interfaces. two product modules can be deployed and work together only if they are compatible. that means that the module must be additive, that is, the environment of the interface needs to remain intact. an incompatible interface, on the other hand, means that the introduction of the module has changed the existing interface in such a way that existing references to the interface can fail or behave incorrectly. this definition means that the things we do on the many system interfaces can result in incompatibility that results result in bad or incomplete implementation. for example, ordinary addition of a software or even an addition or removal of an argument to an existing software module may cause an imbalanced interface. this interface sensitivity tells us that it is possible because of interposition that the addition of a simple thing like a symbol or an additional condition can result in an incompatible interface, leading the new symbol or condition to conflict with all applications that have been without problems. to put the interface concept into a wide system framework, consider a systemwide integration of both hardware and software components with differing technologies with no standards. no information system products, whether hardware or software, are based on a standard that the industry has to follow. because of this, manufacturers and consumers must contend with the constant problems of system compatibility. because of the vast number of variables in information systems, especially network systems, involving both hardware and software, it is not possible to test or verify all combinations of hardware and software. consider, for example, that there are no standards in the software industry. software systems involve different models based on platforms and manufacturer. products are heterogeneous both semantically and syntactically. when two or more software modules are to interface one another in the sense that one may feed into the other or one may use the outputs of the other, incompatibility conditions may result from such an interaction. unless there are methodologies and algorithms for checking for interface compatibility, errors are transmitted from one module into another. for example, consider a typical interface created by a method call between software modules. such an interface always makes assumptions about the environment having the necessary availability constraints that the accessibility of local methods to certain states of the module. if such availability constraints are not checked before the modules are allowed to pass parameters via method calls, errors may result. incompatibility in system interfaces may be caused by a variety of conditions usually created by things such as: • too much detail • not enough understanding of the underlying parameters • poor communication during design • selecting the software or hardware modules before understanding the receiving software • ignoring integration issues • error in manual entry many security problems result from the incorrect implementation of both hardware and software. in fact, system reliability in both software and hardware is based on correct implementation, as is the security of the system. in sect. 4.2.1, we discussed design flaws in technology systems as one of the leading causes of system vulnerabilities. in fact we pointed out that systems are composed of software, hardware, and humanware. there are problems in each one of these components. since the humanware component is influenced by the technology in the software and hardware, we will not discuss this any further. the fact that computer and telecommunication technologies have developed at such an amazing and frightening speed and people have overwhelmingly embraced both of them has caused security experts to worry about the side effects of these booming technologies. there were reasons to worry. internet technology has been and continues to be vulnerable. there have been reports of all sorts of loopholes, weaknesses, and gaping holes in both software and hardware technologies. according to national vulnerability database (nvd), a us government repository of standards-based vulnerability management data using the security content automation protocol (scap), system vulnerabilities have been on the rise ever since system vulnerability data was first captured. the system vulnerability data captured by nvd enables automation of vulnerability management, security measurement, and compliance. nvd includes databases of security checklists, securityrelated software flaws, misconfigurations, product names, and impact metrics. read more about nvd at https://nvd.nist.gov/home.cfm. there is agreement among security experts that what is reported represents the tip of the iceberg. many vulnerabilities are discovered and, for various reasons, are not reported. because these technologies are used by many who are not security experts (in fact the majority of users are not security literate), one can say that many vulnerabilities are observed and probably not reported because those who observe them do not have the knowledge to classify what has been observed as a vulnerability. even if they do, they may not know how and where to report. no one knows how many of these vulnerabilities are there in both software and hardware. the assumption is that there are thousands. as history has shown us, a few are always discovered every day by hackers. although the list spans both hardware and software, the problem is more prevalent with software. in fact, software vulnerabilities can be put into four categories: • operating system vulnerabilities: operating systems are the main sources of all reported system vulnerabilities. going by the sysadmin, audit, network, and security (sans) institute, a cooperative research and education organization serving security professionals, auditors, system administrators, and network administrators, together with the common weakness enumeration (cwe), a community-developed dictionary of weaknesses of software types, has been issuing lists annually: "cwe/sans top 25 most dangerous software errors." popular operating systems cause many of the vulnerabilities. this is always so because hackers tend to take the easiest route by exploiting the best-known flaws with the most effective and widely known and available attack tools. • port-based vulnerabilities: besides operating systems, network service ports take second place in sourcing system vulnerabilities. for system administrators, knowing the list of most vulnerable ports can go a long way to help enhance system security by blocking those known ports at the firewall. such an operation, though not comprehensive, adds an extra layer of security to the network. in fact it is advisable that in addition to blocking and deny-everything filtering, security administrators should also monitor all ports including the blocked ones for intruders who entered the system by some other means. for the most common vulnerable port numbers, the reader is referred to the latest sans at: https:// www.sans.org/security-resources/idfaq/which-backdoors-live-on-which-ports/ 8/4. • application software-based errors. • system protocol software such as client and server browser. in addition to highlighting the need for system administrators to patch the most common vulnerabilities, we hope this will also help many organizations that lack the resources to train security personnel to have a choice of either focusing on the most current or the most persistent vulnerability. one would wonder why a vulnerability would remain among the most common year after year, while there are advisories on it and patches for it. the answer is not very farfetched, but simple: system administrators do not correct many of these flaws because they simply do not know which vulnerabilities are most dangerous; they are too busy to correct them all or they do not know how to correct them safely. although these vulnerabilities are cited, many of them year after year, as the most common vulnerabilities, there are traditionally thousands of vulnerabilities that hackers often use to attack systems. because they are so numerous and new ones are being discovered every day, many system administrators may be overwhelmed, which may lead to loss of focus on the need to ensure that all systems are protected against the most common attacks. let us take stock of what we have said so far. lots and lots of system vulnerabilities have been observed and documented by sans and cwe in their series, "cwe/sans top 25 most dangerous software errors." however, there is a stubborn persistence of a number of vulnerabilities making the list year after year. this observation, together with the nature of software, as we have explored in sect. 4.2.1, means it is possible that what has been observed so far is a very small fraction of a potential sea of vulnerabilities; many of them probably will never be discovered because software will ever be subjected to either unexpected input sequences or operated in unexpected environments. besides the inherently embedded vulnerabilities resulting from flawed designs, there are also vulnerabilities introduced in the operating environments as a result of incorrect implementations by operators. the products may not have weaknesses initially, but such weaknesses may be introduced as a result of bad or careless installations. for example, quite often products are shipped to customers with security features disabled, forcing the technology users to go through the difficult and error-prone process of properly enabling the security features by oneself. it is ironic that as "useful" technology develops so does the "bad" technology. what we call useful technology is the development in all computer and telecommunication technologies that are driving the internet, telecommunication, and the web. "bad" technology is the technology that system intruders are using to attack systems. unfortunately these technologies are all developing in tandem. in fact, there are times when it looks like hacker technologies are developing faster than the rest of the technologies. one thing is clear, though: hacker technology is flourishing. although it used to take intelligence, determination, enthusiasm, and perseverance to become a hacker, it now requires a good search engine, time, a little bit of knowledge of what to do, and owning a computer. there are thousands of hacker web sites with the latest in script technologies and hundreds of recipe books and sources on how to put together an impact virus or a worm and how to upload it. the ease of availability of these hacker tools; the ability of hackers to disguise their identities and locations; the automation of attack technology which further distances the attacker from the attack; the fact that attackers can go unidentified, limiting the fear of prosecution; and the ease of hacker knowledge acquisition have put a new twist in the art of hacking, making it seem easy and hence attracting more and younger disciples. besides the ease of becoming a hacker and acquiring hacker tools, because of the internet sprawl, hacker impact has become overwhelming, impressive, and more destructive in shorter times than ever before. take, for example, recent virus incidents such as the "i love you," "code red," "slammer," and the "blaster" worms' spread. these worms and viruses probably spread around the world much faster than the human cold virus and the dreaded severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars). what these incidents have demonstrated is that the turnaround time, the time a virus is first launched in the wild and the time it is first cited as affecting the system, is becoming incredibly shorter. both the turnaround time and the speed at which the virus or a worm spreads reduce the response time, the time a security incident is first cited in the system and the time an effective response to the incident should have been initiated. when the response time is very short, security experts do not have enough time to respond to a security incident effectively. in a broader framework, when the turnaround time is very short, system security experts who develop patches do not have enough time to reverse engineer and analyze the attack in order to produce counter immunization codes. it has been and it is still the case in many security incidents for antivirus companies to take hours and sometime days, such as in the case of the code red virus, to come up with an effective cure. however, even after a patch is developed, it takes time before it is filtered down to the system managers. meantime, the damage has already been done, and it is multiplying. likewise, system administrators and users have little time to protect their systems. in his testimony to the subcommittee on government efficiency, financial management, and intergovernmental relations of the us house committee on government reform, richard d. pethia, director, cert centers, pointed out the difficulty in fixing known system vulnerabilities as one of the sources of system vulnerabilities. his concern was based on a number of factors, including the everrising number of system vulnerabilities and the ability of system administrators to cope with the number of patches issued for these vulnerabilities. as the number of vulnerabilities rises, system and network administrators face a difficult situation. they are challenged with keeping up with all the systems they have and all the patches released for those systems. patches can be difficult to apply and might even have unexpected side effects as a result of compatibility issues [2] . besides the problem of keeping abreast of the number of vulnerabilities and the corresponding patches, there are also logistic problems between the time at which a vendor releases a security patch and the time at which a system administrator fixes the vulnerable computer system. there are several factors affecting the quick fixing of patches. sometimes, it is the logistics of the distribution of patches. many vendors disseminate the patches on their web sites; others send e-mail alerts. however, sometimes busy system administrators do not get around to these e-mails and security alerts until sometime after. sometimes, it can be months or years before the patches are implemented on a majority of the vulnerable computers. many system administrators are facing the same chronic problems: the neverending system maintenance, limited resources, and highly demanding management. under these conditions, the ever-increasing security system complexity, increasing system vulnerabilities, and the fact that many administrators do not fully understand the security risks, system administrators neither give security a high enough priority nor assign adequate resources. exacerbating the problem is the fact that the demand for skilled system administrators far exceeds the supply [2] . going by daily reports of system attacks and hacks, the number of system attacks is steadily on the rise. however, a small percentage of all attacks is reported, indicating a serious and growing systems security problem. however, given that just a small percentage of all attacks is reported, this table indicates a serious growing system security problem. as we have pointed out earlier, hacker technology is becoming more readily available, easier to get and assemble, more complex, and their effects more far reaching. all these indicate that urgent action is needed to find an effective solution to this monstrous problem. the security community, including scrupulous vendors, have come up with various solutions, some good and others not. in fact, in an unexpected reversal of fortunes, one of the new security problems is to find a "good" solution from among thousands of solutions and to find an "expert" security option from the many different views. are we reaching the limits of our efforts, as a community, to come up with a few good and effective solutions to this security problem? there are many signs to support an affirmative answer to this question. it is clear that we are reaching the limits of effectiveness of our reactive solutions. richard d. pethia gives the following reasons [2] : • the number of vulnerabilities in commercial off-the-shelf software is now at the level that it is virtually impossible for any but the best resourced organizations to keep up with the vulnerability fixes. • according to world internet usage and population statistics, (http://www. internetworldstats.com/stats.htm), with a 2016 global population of 7,340,093,980, there are currently 3,611,375,813 internet users representing almost half of the global population at 49.2%. this represents a growth of 90.4% since 2000. this is a phenomenal growth and it continues to grow at a rapid pace. at any point in time, there are millions of connected computers and smart mobile devices that are vulnerable to one form of attack or another. • attack technology has now advanced to the point where it is easy for attackers to take advantage of these vulnerable machines and harness them together to launch high-powered attacks. • many attacks are now fully automated, thus reducing the turnaround time even further as they spread around cyberspace. • the attack technology has become increasingly complex and in some cases intentionally stealthy, thus reducing the turnaround time and increasing the time it takes to discover and analyze the attack mechanisms in order to produce antidotes. • internet users have become increasingly dependent on the internet and now use it for many critical applications so that a relatively minor attack has the potential to cause huge damages. without being overly pessimistic, these factors, taken together, indicate that there is a high probability that more attacks are likely and since they are getting more complex and attacking more computers, they are likely to cause significant devastating economic losses and service disruptions. according to john palumbo, social engineering is an outside hacker's use of psychological tricks on legitimate users of a computer system in order to gain the information (usernames and passwords) one needs to gain access to the system [5] . many have classified social engineering as a diversion, in the process of system attack, on people's intelligence to utilize two human weaknesses: first, no one wants to be considered ignorant and second is human trust. ironically, these are two weaknesses that have made social engineering difficult to fight because no one wants to admit falling for it. this has made social engineering a critical system security hole. many hackers have and continue to use it to get into protected systems. kevin mitnick, the notorious hacker, used it successfully and was arguably one of the most ingenious hackers of our time; he was definitely very gifted with his ability to socially engineer just about anybody [5] . hackers use many approaches to social engineering, including the following [6] : • telephone. this is the most classic approach, in which hackers call up a targeted individual in a position of authority or relevance and initiate a conversation with the goal of gradually pulling information out of the target. this is done mostly to help desks and main telephone switch boards. caller id cannot help because hackers can bypass it through tricks and the target truly believes that the hacker is actually calling from inside the corporation. • online. hackers are harvesting a boom of vital information online from careless users. the reliance on and excessive use of the internet have resulted in people having several online accounts. currently an average user has about four to five accounts including one for home use, one for work, and an additional one or two for social or professional organizations. with many accounts, as probably any reader may concur, one is bound to forget some passwords, especially the least used ones. to overcome this problem, users mistakenly use one password on several accounts. hackers know this, and they regularly target these individuals with clever baits such as telling them they won lotteries or were finalists in sweepstakes where computers select winners or they have won a specific number of prizes in a lotto, where they were computer selected. however, in order to get the award, the user must fill in an online form, usually web-based, and this transmits the password to the hacker. hackers have used hundreds of tricks on unsuspecting users in order for them to surrender their passwords. • dumpster diving is now a growing technique of information theft not only in social engineering but more so in identity theft. the technique, also known as trashing, involves an information thief scavenging through individual and company dumpsters for information. large and critical information can be dug out of dumpsters and trash cans. dumpster diving can recover from dumpsters and trash cans individual social security numbers, bank accounts, individual vital records, and a whole list of personal and work-related information that gives the hackers the exact keys they need to unlock the network. • in person is the oldest of the information-stealing techniques that predates computers. it involves a person physically walking into an organization's offices and casually checking out note boards, trash diving into bathroom trash cans and company hallway dumpsters, and eating lunches together and initiating conversations with employees. in big companies, this can be done only on a few occasions before trusted friendships develop. from such friendships, information can be passed unconsciously. • snail mail is done in several ways and is not limited only to social engineering but has also been used in identity theft and a number of other crimes. it has been in the news recently because of identity theft. it is done in two ways: the hacker picks a victim and goes to the post office and puts in a change of address form to a new box number. this gives the hacker a way to intercept all snail mail of the victim. from the intercepted mail, the hacker can gather a great deal of information that may include the victim's bank and credit card account numbers and access control codes and pins by claiming to have forgotten his or her password or pin and requesting a reissue in the mail. in another form, the hacker drops a bogus survey in the victim's mailbox offering baits of cash award for completing a "few simple" questions and mailing them in. the questions, in fact, request far more than simple information from an unsuspecting victim. • impersonation is also an old trick played on unsuspecting victims by criminals for a number of goodies. these days the goodies are information. impersonation is generally acting out a victim's character role. it involves the hacker playing a role and passing himself or herself as the victim. in the role, the thief or hacker can then get into legitimate contacts that lead to the needed information. in large organizations with hundreds or thousands of employees scattered around the globe, it is very easy to impersonate a vice president or a chief operations officer. since most employees always want to look good to their bosses, they will end up supplying the requested information to the imposter. overall, social engineering is a cheap but rather threatening security problem that is very difficult to deal with. vulnerability assessment is a process that works on a system to identify, track, and manage the repair of vulnerabilities on the system. the assortment of items that are checked by this process in a system under review varies depending on the organization. it may include all desktops, servers, routers, and firewalls. most vulnerability assessment services will provide system administrators with: • network mapping and system fingerprinting of all known vulnerabilities • a complete vulnerability analysis and ranking of all exploitable weaknesses based on potential impact and likelihood of occurrence for all services on each host • prioritized list of misconfigurations in addition, at the end of the process, a final report is always produced detailing the findings and the best way to go about overcoming such vulnerabilities. this report consists of prioritized recommendations for mitigating or eliminating weaknesses, and based on an organization's operational schedule, it also contains recommendations of further reassessments of the system within given time intervals or on a regular basis. due to the massive growth of the number of companies and organizations owning their own networks, the growth of vulnerability monitoring technologies, the increase in network intrusions and attacks with viruses, and worldwide publicity of such attacks, there is a growing number of companies offering system vulnerability services. these services, targeting the internals and perimeter of the system, web-based applications, and providing a baseline to measure subsequent attacks against, include scanning, assessment and penetration testing, and application assessment. vulnerability scanning services provide a comprehensive security review of the system, including both the perimeter and system internals. the aim of this kind of scanning is to spot critical vulnerabilities and gaps in the system's security practices. comprehensive system scanning usually results in a number of both false positives and negatives. it is the job of the system administrator to find ways of dealing with these false positives and negatives. the final report produced after each scan consists of strategic advice and prioritized recommendations to ensure that critical holes are addressed first. system scanning can be scheduled, depending on the level of the requested scan, by the system user or the service provider, to run automatically and report by either automated or periodic e-mail to a designated user. the scans can also be stored on a secure server for future review. this phase of vulnerability assessment is a hands-on testing of a system for identified and unidentified vulnerabilities. all known hacking techniques and tools are tested during this phase to reproduce real-world attack scenarios. one of the outcomes of these real-life testings is that new and sometimes obscure vulnerabilities are found, processes and procedures of attack are identified, and sources and severity of vulnerabilities are categorized and prioritized based on the user-provided risks. as web applications become more widespread and more entrenched into e-commerce and all other commercial and business areas, applications are slowly becoming the main interface between the user and the network. the increased demands on applications have resulted into new directions in automation and dynamism of these applications. as we saw in chap. 6, scripting in web applications, for example, has opened a new security paradigm in system administration. many organizations have gotten sense of these dangers and are making substantial progress in protecting their systems from attacks via web-based applications. assessing the security of system applications is, therefore, becoming a special skills requirement needed to secure critical systems. vulnerability online services have many advantages for system administrators. they can, and actually always do, provide and develop signatures and updates for new vulnerabilities and automatically include them in the next scan. this eliminates the need for the system administrator to schedule periodic updates. reports from these services are very detailed not only on the vulnerabilities, sources of vulnerabilities, and existence of false positives, but they also focus on vulnerability identification and provide more information on system configuration that may not be readily available to system administrators. this information alone goes a long way in providing additional security awareness to security experts about additional avenues whereby systems may be attacked. the reports are then encrypted and stored in secure databases accessible only with the proper user credentials. this is because these reports contain critically vital data on the security of the system and they could, therefore, be a pot of gold for hackers if found. this additional care and awareness adds security to the system. probably, the best advantage to an overworked and many times resourcestrapped system administrator is the automated and regularly scheduled scan of all network resources. they provide, in addition, a badly needed third-party "security eye," thus helping the administrator to provide an objective yet independent security evaluation of the system. what is a vulnerability? what do you understand by a system vulnerability? 2. discuss four sources of system vulnerabilities what are the best ways to identify system vulnerabilities? what is innovative misuse? what role does it play in the search for solutions to system vulnerability? what is incomplete implementation? is it possible to deal with incomplete implementation as a way of dealing with system vulnerabilities? what is social engineering? why is it such a big issue yet so cheap to perform? is it possible to completely deal with it? why or why not? some have described social engineering as being perpetuated by our internal fears. discuss those fears what is the role of software security testing in the process of finding solutions to system vulnerabilities? some have sounded an apocalyptic voice as far as finding solutions to system vulnerabilities. should we take them seriously? what is innovative misuse? what role does it play in the search for solutions to system vulnerabilities? is it possible to locate all vulnerabilities in a network? in other words, can one make an authoritative list of those vulnerabilities? defend your response why are design flaws such a big issue in the study of vulnerability? part of the problem in design flaws involves issues associated with software verification and validation (v&v) information security: protecting the global enterprise information technology-essential but vulnerable: how prepared are we for attacks? ethical and social issues in the information age open source and linux: 2002 poster children for security problems social engineering: what is it, why is so little said about it and what can be done? sans social engineering fundamentals, part i: hacker tactics key: cord-015697-j22q89l9 authors: vanderwende, lucy; suzuki, hisami; brockett, chris; nenkova, ani title: beyond sumbasic: task-focused summarization with sentence simplification and lexical expansion date: 2007-04-19 journal: inf process manag doi: 10.1016/j.ipm.2007.01.023 sha: doc_id: 15697 cord_uid: j22q89l9 in recent years, there has been increased interest in topic-focused multi-document summarization. in this task, automatic summaries are produced in response to a specific information request, or topic, stated by the user. the system we have designed to accomplish this task comprises four main components: a generic extractive summarization system, a topic-focusing component, sentence simplification, and lexical expansion of topic words. this paper details each of these components, together with experiments designed to quantify their individual contributions. we include an analysis of our results on two large datasets commonly used to evaluate task-focused summarization, the duc2005 and duc2006 datasets, using automatic metrics. additionally, we include an analysis of our results on the duc2006 task according to human evaluation metrics. in the human evaluation of system summaries compared to human summaries, i.e., the pyramid method, our system ranked first out of 22 systems in terms of overall mean pyramid score; and in the human evaluation of summary responsiveness to the topic, our system ranked third out of 35 systems. in recent years, there has been increased interest in topic-focused multi-document summarization. in this task, automatic summaries are produced in response to a specific information request, or topic, stated by the user. in response to this interest and to stimulate research in this area, the national institute of standards and technology (nist) conducted a series of workshops, the document understanding conference 2 (duc), to provide large-scale common data sets for the evaluation of systems. participants in duc2005 and duc2006 were provided with a topic and a set of relevant documents (newswire articles), and the task was 0306-4573/$ -see front matter ó 2007 elsevier ltd. all rights reserved. doi:10.1016 all rights reserved. doi:10. /j.ipm.2007 to produce an automatic summary of not more than 250 words in length. consider the topic description for clusters d0652g and d0655a, for example: d0652g: identify the world's top banana producers and their levels of production. describe the main markets for imports and relate any major issues in the industry. d0655a: discuss the causes, effects, and treatment of childhood obesity. how widespread is it? in order to evaluate the summaries produced by the participants' systems, called peer summaries, duc provides four human summaries, model summaries, for comparison. several methods for summarization evaluation have been proposed. the automatic metric used in duc is rouge (lin, 2004) specifically, rouge-2, which calculates the overlap in bigrams between the peer and the four model summaries, and rouge-su4, which calculates the bigram overlap, but allowing up to 4 words to be skipped in order to identify a bigram match. automatic metrics are useful as they potentially allow a comparison between different system settings, as we show in section 6.1. however, since we are primarily interested in maximizing the content of our system's summaries, which, due to many issues of semantic realization such as paraphrase, cannot always be captured by measuring bigram overlap with four model summaries, we also evaluate our results with human evaluation metrics. human evaluation is time-consuming and must be conducted carefully, in the same experimental setting, in order to ensure comparison across systems. we participated in duc2006 in order to gain access to a human evaluation of our system, specifically the nist content responsiveness score. in addition, a second human evaluation is coordinated by columbia university, the pyramid method . the pyramid method requires two steps: first, a set of semantic equivalence classes are built for the sets of model summaries, with higher scores assigned to content represented in multiple model summaries, and second, a person identifies the content units in a peer summary that are found in the set of semantic equivalence classes. 3 the scores reported measure the amount of content overlap between the peer summary and the four model summaries. in this paper, we describe the multi-document summarization system we submitted to duc2006. our contribution in duc2006, identified as system 10, builds on an earlier system, sumbasic (nenkova & vanderwende, 2005) which produces generic multi-document summaries; we provide a description of sumbasic in section 2. we then describe each of the remaining three main components that comprise our system: a task-focused extractive summarization system, sentence simplification, and lexical expansion of topic words. we will provide experiments using automatic metrics designed to quantify the contributions of each component. human evaluation metrics, discussed in section 6.2, indicate that this is a relatively successful approach to multi-document summarization; in the pyramid evaluation, our system ranked first out of 22 systems and in the nist metrics for content responsiveness, our system ranked third out of 35 systems. with regard to our system design, it must be noted that this system, similar to almost all multi-document summarization systems, produces summaries by selecting sentences from the document set, either verbatim or with some simplification. using sentence simplification is a step towards generating new summary text, rather than extracting summaries from existing text. there is, however, no consideration for sentence ordering or cohesion other than that sentence ordering is determined exclusively as a result of the sentence selection process (see section 2 for details). sumbasic (nenkova & vanderwende, 2005) is a system that produces generic multi-document summaries. its design is motivated by the observation that words occurring frequently in the document cluster occur with higher probability in the human summaries than words occurring less frequently. specifically, sumbasic uses the following algorithm: step 1. compute the probability distribution over the words w i appearing in the input, p(w i ) for every i; pðw i þ ¼ n n , where n is the number of times the word appeared in the input, and n is the total number of content word tokens in the input. step 2. for each sentence s j in the input, assign a weight equal to the average probability of the words in the sentence, i.e., step 3. pick the best scoring sentence that contains the highest probability word. step 4. for each word w i in the sentence chosen at step 3, update their probability: step 5. if the desired summary length has not been reached, go back to step 2. steps 2 and 3 enforce the desired properties of the summarizer, i.e., that high frequency words from the input are very likely to appear in the human summaries. step 3 ensures that the highest probability word is included in the summary, thus each time a sentence is picked, the word with the highest probability at that point in the summary is also picked. step 4 serves a threefold purpose: 1. it gives the summarizer sensitivity to context. the notion of ''what is most important to include in the summary?'' changes depending on what information has already been included in the summary. in fact, while p old (w i ) can be considered as the probability with which the word w i will be included in the summary, p new (w i ) is an approximation of the probability that the word w i will appear in the summary twice. 2. by updating the probabilities in this intuitive way, we also allow words with initially low probability to have higher impact on the choice of subsequent sentences. 3. the update or word probability gives a natural way to deal with the redundancy in the multidocument input. no further checks for duplication seem to be necessary. the system resembles sum avr as recently described in nenkova, vanderwende, and mckeown (2006) except that the update function in sumbasic uses squaring rather than multiplication by a very small number. comparing sumbasic to luhn (1958) . the idea that simple frequency is indicative of importance in automatic summarization dates back to the seminal work of luhn (1958) . the sumbasic algorithm is distinct from luhn's algorithm, however, in several significant but illustrative ways. luhn first collects the frequencies of words in the document and identifies a subset of significant words, excluding the most frequent (what would now be termed ''stopwords'') and the least frequent (generally, words occurring less than four times). whereas sumbasic uses true initial probabilities and computes the weight of a sentence as equal to the average probability of the words in a sentence, luhn treats all significant words as having equal weight and computes the weight of a sentence as a function of the concentration of significant words in the sentence. this weight is obtained by defining windows as sequences of significant and non-significant words, such that there are no more than four non-significant words between any two significant words in a window; the weight of a sentence is equal to the weight of the highest scoring window, namely, the square root of the number of significant words in the window, divided by the total number of words in the window. finally, since luhn's system is designed to summarize single-documents, there is little need to prevent redundancy, in sharp contrast to multidocument summarization, where the likelihood that several documents might convey highly similar, or even identical, important information necessitates mechanisms to avoid redundancy, a functionality that sumbasic provides by updating the probability of the words on the basis of preceding selected sentences. nenkova and vanderwende (2005) document the impact of frequency on generic multi-document systems, but in the case of task-focused summarization, document frequency alone may not be predictive, since the topic may not be related to the most common information in the document set. thus, in order to incorporate topic constraints in generic summarization, our new system, called sumfocus, captures the information conveyed by the topic description by computing the word probabilities of the topic description. having done so, the weight for each word is computed as a linear combination of the unigram probabilities derived from the topic description, with backoff smoothing to assign words not appearing in the topic a very small probability, and the unigram probabilities from the document, in the following manner (all other aspects of sumbasic remain unchanged): the optimal value of k, 0.9, was empirically determined using the duc2005 corpus, manually optimizing on rouge-2 scores (henceforth r-2). since sentence selection is controlled by choosing the words with the highest weights, it is, in principle, possible for these ''best words'' to come from either the document or from the topic description. in practice, however, the best word is nearly always a word from the topic description due to the high value assigned to k. for duc2005 overall, 618 document words were identified as best on the basis of topic statements and only 22 independently on the basis of frequency alone. for duc2006 overall, all 600 best words were chosen from the topic statements. on the basis of duc2005 data, we added a small list of ''topic stopwords'' (describe, discuss, explain, identify, include, including, involve, involving) that did not receive any weight. the topic statements in duc2006 appear to contain more instructions to the summarizer than in duc2005, suggesting additional words may warrant similar handling (e.g., concerning, note, specify, give, examples, and involved). our goal is to create a summarization system that produces summaries with as much content as possible that satisfies the user, given a set limit on length. 4 since summaries produced by sumfocus alone are extractive, we view sentence simplification (also known as sentence shortening or sentence compression) as a means of creating more space within which to capture important content. the most common approach to sentence simplification for summarization purposes has been to deterministically shorten the sentences selected to be used in the summary. the classy system (conroy, schlesinger, & goldstein stewart, 2005) for example, incorporates a heuristic component for sentence simplification that preprocesses the sentences used in their sentence selection component. columbia university's summarization system uses a syntactic simplification component (siddharthan, nenkova, & mckeown, 2004) the results of which are sent to their sentence clustering component. daumé and marcu (2005a) employ a post-processing approach and report that deleting adverbs and attributive phrases improve rouge scores in the multilingual summarization evaluation, although this post-processing was not found to be useful in duc2005 (daumé & marcu, 2005b) conceivably because the summaries are 250 words long rather than 100 words long. in these approaches, simplification operations apply to all sentences equally, and the core sentence selection component has only either the original or the shortened sentence available to choose from. this may not be optimal, however, because the best simplification strategy is not necessarily the same for all sentences. for example, it might be desirable to delete material x from a sentence only if x is already covered by another sentence in the summary. for this reason, simplification strategies have so far remained conservative, presumably to avoid possible side-effects of oversimplification. an alternative approach to sentence simplification is to provide multiple shortened sentence candidates for the summarization engine to choose from. multi-document trimmer (zajic, dorr, lin, monz, & schwartz, 2005) for instance uses a syntactic simplification engine (dorr, zajic, & schwartz, 2003) initially developed for headline generation, to output multiple simplified versions of the sentences in the document cluster. each of these candidates are submitted to the feature-based sentence selection component, which includes the redundancy score of the sentence given the current state of the summary and the number of trimming operations as features. our approach to sentence simplification most closely resembles that used in the multi-document trimmer (zajic et al., 2005) : we apply a small set of heuristics to a parse tree to create alternatives, after which both the original sentence and (possibly multiple) simplified versions are available for selection. unlike mdt, however, in our system both original and alternative simplified sentences are provided for selection without differentiation, i.e., without retaining any explicit link between them, under the assumption that the sumbasic-based multi-document summarization engine is inherently equipped with the ability to handle redundancy, and the simplified alternatives only add to that redundancy. sumbasic's method for updating the unigram probabilities given the sentences already selected allows the simplified sentence alternatives to be considered independently, while maintaining redundancy at a minimum. 5 given that this approach to sentence simplification allows the sentence selection component to make the optimal decision among alternatives, we are thus freed to pursue more aggressive simplification, since the original non-simplified version is always available for selection. the approach is also extensible to incorporating novel sentence rewrites into a summary, moving in the direction of generative rather than extractive summaries. an example of this is jing and mckeown (2000) who propose a set of operations to edit extracted sentences, not limited to sentence reduction. it is straightforward to integrate such sentence rewrite operations into our framework, as candidate generation works independently of sentence selection, and word probability alone suffices to compute the sentence score. our simplification component consists of heuristic templates for the elimination of syntactic units based on parser output. each sentence in the document cluster is first parsed using a broad-coverage english parser (ringger, moore, charniak, vanderwende, & suzuki, 2004) . we then run a filter on the parse tree that eliminates certain nodes from the parse tree when the node matches the patterns provided heuristically. table 1 lists the syntactic patterns used in our duc2006 system. these patterns are inspired by and similar to those discussed in dunlavy et al. (2003) the principal difference being that extraction makes use of a full-fledged syntactic parser rather than employing a shallow parsing approach. for the first three patterns in table 1 (noun appositive, gerundive clause and non-restrictive relative clause), the parser returns a node label corresponding exactly to these patterns; we simply deleted the nodes with these labels. for the identification of intra-sentential attribution, we added specific conditions for detecting the verbs of attribution (said in table 1 ), its subject (the report), the complementizer (that) and adverbial expressions if any, and deleted the nodes when conditions were matched. in the case of sentence-initial adverbials, we delete only manner and time adverb expressions, the return to whaling will be a sort of homecoming for the makah, whose real name which cannot be written in english means ''people who live by the rocks and the seagulls'' intra-sentential attribution lead adverbials and conjunctions separately, the report said that the murder rate by indians in 1996 was 4 per 100,000, below the national average of 7.9 per 100,000, and less than the white rate of 4.9 per 100,000 using the features returned by the parser. currently, these patterns all apply simultaneously to create maximally one simplified sentence per input, but it would in principle be possible to generate multiple simplified candidates. finally, the punctuation and capitalization of the simplified sentences are cleaned up before the sentences are made available to the selection component along with their original, non-simplified counterparts in the document cluster. the results of applying this simplification filter are discussed in section 6. in addition to sentence simplification, we also investigated the potential for expanding the task terms with synonyms and morphologically-related forms. the use of query expansion has frequently been explored in information retrieval tasks, but without notable success (mitra, singhal, & buckley, 1998) . however, since the purpose of summarization is not to extract entire relevant documents from a large data set, but smaller sentences, it might be hypothesized that individual expansions could have more evident impact. in constructing our system, therefore, we augmented the task terms with lexical expansions supplied by morphological variants (chiefly derived forms) and synonyms or closely-related terms drawn from both static hand-crafted thesauri and dynamically-learned sources extracted from corpora. lexical expansions are applied only at the point where we choose the inventory of ''best words'' with which to determine candidate sentence selection. as already noted in section 3, in duc2006, the ''best words'' are drawn only from the topic statements, and not from the document collection. where a term in the sentence matches a lexical expansion, the formula for computing ''best word'' scores is as follows, where d is the document score of the lexical item in question, and e is the score for each type of matched expansion: the summation p n i e i is the expanded analog of the topicweight in the formula given for unexpanded topics in the discussion of sumfocus in section 3. the k is a uniform default weight applied to the cumulative scores of matches from all expansion types. for the purposes of our duc 2006 submission, the value of k was set at 0.5 after hand inspecting results for r-2 while tuning the system on the duc 2005 dataset. lexical expansion scores were not used to recompute the lexical probabilities of the sentences once they had been selected. morphologically-derived forms were looked up in the version of the american heritage dictionary used by our parser, thereby allowing us to obtain pairs such as develop m development. we also employed a small inventory of paired geographical names and their adjective counterparts, e.g., united states m american, china m chinese, tanzania m tanzanian. expansion scores for these morphological variants were computed on the basis of simple occurrence counts of the number of times the forms were encountered in the task description. thus, if both forms appeared in the topic text, both received a boost. since our implementation did not lemmatize the topic words, only exact matches were considered. a primary objective in investigating lexical expansions was to explore the potential impact of a 65,335-pair synonym list that we automatically acquired from clustered news articles available on the world wide web, the hypothesis here being that a thesaurus derived from news data might be prove more useful, and potentially domain-relevant than static general-domain synonym resources. starting with an initial dataset of 9.5 million sentences in $32,400 pre-clustered news articles, we created a monolingual bitext of $282,600 aligned sentence pairs using a crude heuristic similarity measure based on three criteria, namely, that the sentence pairs should have at least three words in common, have a minimum sentence length ratio of 66.6%, and have a word-based edit distance (i.e,, number of words inserted and deleted) of e 6 12. the reader is referred to quirk, brockett, and dolan (2004) dolan, quirk, and brockett (2004) for further information about the construction of this corpus. this was augmented by a further $20,000 sentence pairs extracted using a support vector machine applying lexical bootstrapping methods described in brockett and dolan (2005) who demonstrate that it is possible to apply giza++ (och & ney, 2003) to this (more or less comparable) corpus to yield an overall word alignment error rate as low as 12.46%. sentence pairs obtained in this fashion typically exhibit substantive semantic overlap, providing a dataset from which a potentially useful thesaurus might be extracted. an example sentence pair is shown in table 2 . the paired sentences were then tokenized, named entities and multiple word expressions were identified, and the words then lemmatized and tagged for part of speech. identical words were deleted from the pairs and the remainder aligned using a log likelihood ratio-based word association technique described in moore (2001) using the formula given in moore (2004) where t and s are variables ranging over the presence (1) or absence (0) of the two words under consideration, and c(t, s) is the observed joint count for their values. the probabilities used are maximum likelihood estimates. after extraction, the word pairs were further filtered to remove typographical errors, mismatches relating to numerical expressions and other artifacts of unnormalized news data. the pairs were then chained up to three steps to expand the dataset, and the association scores coerced into a range between 1.0 and 0.0 in order to generate a distribution that could be utilized by the system. these initial weights were then updated at runtime in the same manner as for morphological variants, by multiplying them by the number of times either member of a pair occurred in the topic description. no attempt was made to discriminate among word senses, in particular, where chaining might have resulted in mismatched terms. (in general, such mismatches would tend to have very low scores.) example synonyms and near synonyms for the word ''virus'' extracted in this manner are shown in table 3 . these range over two major senses, and also are not limited to the same part of speech. on the other hand, the data acquired in this manner can be relatively limited, and does not include, for example, names of major computer viruses, a limitation that in fact appears to have affected results in some newsclusters. in addition to the learned synonyms, we also considered expansions using data extracted from two static thesauri. the first was a list of 125,054 word pairs in the encarta thesaurus (rooney, 2001 ) which we deployed table 2 sample aligned sentence pair used to extract word associations indonesia's electoral commission has formally announced that susilo bambang yudhoyono, a former general and security minister, has won the country's first direct presidential election indonesian election officials today formally declared ex-general susilo bambang yudhoyono as victor in the country's first presidential poll after a final vote tally was completed in the submitted system. heuristic weights were precomputed in the form of a distribution based on number of synonyms for each word, allowing this data to be easily integrated with our acquired word association list. we also experimented with, but did not include in the system submitted to duc 2006, simple undisambiguated synonym expansion using wordnet 2.0 (fellbaum, 1998) no attempt was made to provide weights for the lexical expansions found in wordnet; instead raw occurrence counts were used as with morphological variants, with the uniform k applied in the same manner as to the other resources. table 4 compares the average rouge recall scores for word unigram (r-1), word bigram (r-2) and skip-4 bigram (r-su4) models achieved on duc 2005 data (used in training) and on duc 2006 data by different versions of our system. 6 numbers for sumbasic are presented as baseline. it is difficult to derive meaningful conclusions on the basis of the rouge results in table 4 . on duc 2005 data, sentence simplification consistently appears to improve matters modestly, but on duc 2006 data it paradoxically seems to introduce a small degradation in recall when deployed in conjunction with sumfocus. this appears to be partially offset by the application of lexical expansion. however, the differences in scores consistently fall within the 95% error margins computed by the rouge tool. moreover, p-scores computed using the wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-ranks test indicate that differences over a baseline sumbasic system without simplification were significant (p < 0.05) only on the duc 2005 data used in training. despite the somewhat inconclusive nature of the rouge results, they are suggestive of the relative contributions of different system components. table 5 presents the individual contributions made by various expansion strategies when used in conjunction with sentence simplification. the biggest observable impact comes from morphological expansion (mrf), while other lexical expansions, namely the encarta thesaurus (enc) and word association data (wa) may have contributed to the overall performance of the system to a lesser extent, if at all. mrf + enc + wa corresponds to the system submitted to duc 2006, i.e., sumfocus with lexical expansion and simplification. none of the differences are statistically significant at the level of p < 0.05 on the wilcoxon matched-pairs signed ranks test. table 5 also shows the potential impact of simple synonym expansion using wordnet 2.0 (fellbaum, 1998) which was not included in the submitted system, but which performs at or below baseline level in the table. results obtained from human evaluations are potentially more diagnostic and can inform the direction that future work should take. unfortunately, however, nist or pyramid, as one-time human evaluations, do not lend themselves to comparing system settings. nevertheless, since both nist and pyramid evaluation techniques measure content directly, these are the metrics we focus on, given our primary goal of maximizing summary content. accordingly, we report nist and pyramid metrics only for the system we submitted, which is sumfocus with sentence simplification and with lexical expansion of the topic words. pyramid evaluation. system 10 ranked first in the overall mean pyramid score of the 22 systems that participated in the pyramid evaluation. it must be noted, however, that the maximum pyramid score for each cluster differs since the agreement observed in the model summaries varies from cluster to cluster, and so we find that the average rank is a better method to compare systems, presented in table 6 . system 10 is ranked first for 5 out of 20 clusters, and is in the top 3 for half of the clusters. overall, our percluster mean ranking (5.90) is the best among the 22 systems. on the other hand, our performance across the 6 duc reports rouge numbers that are computed implementing the ''jackknife'' in which each human model summary is successively removed from the evaluation and added to the system (''peer'') summaries. this permits the human summaries to be directly compared with the system summaries using the same metric. for all experiments in this paper, however, we compute rouge without jackknifing, which allows us to use 4 model summaries. as a result, the official duc 2006 scores vary slightly from the numbers reported here; the differences, however, are not significant. clusters, also shown in table 6 , is not evenly distributed; system 10 scores worse than half of the systems for 5 out of 20 clusters. table 6 also presents the nist content responsiveness score, i.e., the human judgment of how well the content responds to the needs expressed in the topic description, on a scale from 1 to 5, where 5 is the highest achievable score. overall, system 10 ranked third on responsiveness. on a per-cluster basis, providing a system ranking according the nist content score is less than instructive since there are only 5 values that can be given. initial investigation showed there is no correlation between pyramid score and nist content score, but we have reached no conclusion yet. it is unexpected that for cluster d0601, system 10 is ranked highest among the peers in the pyramid evaluation, with a relatively high degree of scu overlap, while receiving a poor nist content score for the same cluster. looking at the pyramid analysis a bit more deeply, we also computed the percentage of the number of scus that were scored in system 10 and the number of scus that could be attained within the 250 word limit. we note that for only one cluster are more than half of the attainable scus found in system 10's peer summaries. improving this percentage is a clear direction for future research, though it remains an open question whether improving this percentage will lead to higher content responsiveness scores. nist evaluation. three of the five nist linguistic quality questions are relevant to sentence simplifcation: grammaticality, non-redundancy and referential clarity, along with the responsiveness question. nist evaluated these questions by eliciting human judgments on a five point scale. table 7 shows our duc2006 scores relative to the peers, along with the rank of our system among 35 peer systems. though our system (system 10) implements only a small number of simplification patterns, as described in section 4, its effect was quite extensive. in duc2006, of all the sentences selected in summary, 43.4% of them were the result of simplification. this resulted in adding on average another sentence to the summary: the average number of sentence in a summary increased from 11.32 to 12.52 when we used sentence simplification. the pyramid results suggest that making room for more content and removing redundant material by simplifying sentences is a promising operation for extractive summarization systems. it is also interesting to note that 33.6% of the sentences selected in the summaries were original non-simplified versions, even though a simplified counterpart was also available. manual investigation of the summary for one cluster (d0631d) established that four out of eleven sentences were non-simplified despite the availability of a simplified alternative. these four sentences are shown in table 8 . of these, two were incorrectly parsed as noun appositives, resulting in an unexpectedly large portion of the text being deleted and rendering the simplified version less likely to be selected. the other two sentences present interesting cases where the deleted portion of text (indicated in boldface in table 8 ) included important content, corresponding to summary content units (scus) observed in three or four of the model summaries according to the pyramid evaluation. this manual examination confirms that the best simplification strategy may not be the same in all cases, and that there are benefits in using the summarizer itself to choose the best sentence alternative given the context. sentence simplification undoubtedly contributes to our low score for grammaticality. in part this may be because the parser-based simplification filter can produce ungrammatical sentences and sentences with degraded readability owing to misplaced punctuation marks. however, grammaticality judgments may also be affected by whether or not a system allows incomplete last sentences. since the length limit in duc2006 was 250 words, some systems kept the summaries below 250 words, but permitted only complete sentences, while other systems truncated the summary at 250 words, even if the last sentence was incomplete. sumfocus falls into this latter category. only 2 systems allowing incomplete last sentences scored higher on grammaticality than those with complete last sentences, suggesting that while the low scores for grammaticality may be due to sentence simplification, they may also be a function of system design. referential quality may also be negatively affected by the current simplification filter, since deletion of intrasentential attribution can result in deleting the antecedent of pronouns in the summary. on the other hand, it is encouraging to note that our methods perform well on non-redundancy and content responsiveness. in particular, providing sentence alternatives did not increase redundancy, even though the alternatives were not explicitly linked, indicating that the method of updating unigram weights given context used in sumfocus is robust enough to handle the greater redundancy introduced by providing simplified alternatives. it is difficult to argue on the basis of either human or automated evaluation that lexical expansion significantly enhanced the performance of sumfocus, even when using simplification. we earlier noted the paucity of evidence that thesaurus-based query expansion (as opposed to adding search terms) significantly improves the relevance of ir search results: voorhees (1988) has suggested that use of wordnet may improve results of short queries, but not of longer ones. since the duc2006 tasks constitute moderately extended queries, it is perhaps unsurprising that the expansions had minimal effect. it is likely also that system-related factors mitigated the impact of lexical expansions: for example, it is probable that the means by which the expansion scores were computed may have resulted in many word pairs being scored too low to have any effect, while the use of a uniform expansion k failed to differentiate different expansion types adequately. analysis of rouge scores for individual clusters indicates that depending on the domain and type of task, results were in fact sometimes negatively impacted by the approach taken in sumfocus as opposed to sum-basic. in duc 2006, we observed low individual cluster scores when topic descriptions required the summary to identify a class of items: for example, a description that contains the instruction ''identify computer viruses detected worldwide,'' is expected to yield sentences containing the names of specific computer viruses, such as melissa, love bug and cih, rather than multiple exemplars of the term computer virus. here, it seems that even the use of dynamically-learned word associations was inadequate to this domain-specific task. in the long term, however, acquisition of better domain-relevant resources might be expected to ameliorate system performance in such cases. the pyramid annotation shows us that only rarely does a peer summary match 50% or more of the content in the combined model summaries. a detailed analysis of the percentage of scus per weight must still be table 8 examples of full sentences chosen instead of their simplified counterpart reason: parser error london british aviation authorities on wednesday formally ruled the concorde supersonic airliner unfit to fly unless its manufacturers took steps to prevent the problems that led to last month's fatal air france concorde crash near paris le figaro newspaper on wednesday quoted gayssot, the transport minister, as raising the possibility that the ban on air france concorde flights could remain in place until the accident and inquiry office releases a preliminary report on the crash at the end of august reason: deleted material contains important information paris french investigators looking into the crash last month of an air france concorde said thursday it was probable that a 16-in. piece of metal found on the runway caused a tire to blow out, sending debris from the tire through fuel tanks and triggering a fire that brought down the plane the sleek, needle-nosed aircraft could cross the atlantic at an altitude of 60,000 feet and at 1350 mph, completing the trip from london to new york in less than four hours -half the time of regular jets underlined portion of text was deleted in the simplified sentence. text corresponding to an scu is indicated by boldface. done, but anecdotally, our system matches only half of the high-scoring scus, i.e., those scus that were found in all of the model summaries. clearly, finding methods to model this data more closely offers opportunities for improving the overall content of summaries. one direction will lead us to find more sophisticated methods of modeling the relation between a topic word and any of its lexical expansions, the document words, and the target summaries. and, as we continue to leave purely extractive summarization behind and pursue summarization that generates novel sentences that better capture the information need of the user, we will also expand our system to take full advantage of sentence simplification component. in particular, we plan to include more drastic simplifying and rewriting operations (such as splitting coordinated clauses) and produce multiple candidates per sentence in order to see the full potential for the proposed approach. support vector machines for paraphrase identification and corpus construction classy query-based multi-document summarization bayesian multi-document summarization at mse bayesian summarization at duc and a suggestion for extrinsice evaluation unsupervised construction of large paraphrase corpora: exploiting massively parallel news sources hedge trimmer: a parse-and-trim approach to headline generation performance of a three-stage system for multi-document summarization wordnet: an electronic lexical database cut and past based text summarization rouge: a package for automatic evaluation of summaries the automatic creation of literature abstracts improving automatic query expansion towards a simple and accurate statistical approach to learning translation relationships among words association-based bilingual word alignment the impact of frequency on summarization a compositional context sensitive multidocument summarizer evaluating content selection in summarization: the pyramid method a systematic comparison of various statistical alignment models monolingual machine translation for paraphrase generation using the penn treebank to evaluate non-treebank parsers encarta thesaurus syntactic simplification for improving content selection in multi-document summarization wordnet: an electronic lexical database a sentence-trimming approach to multi-document summarization we are indebted to arul menezes for implementing several features described here. we also thank the nist team that supports duc for the nist evaluation, and we thank the duc community who contributed to the pyramid evaluation. we extend our appreciation to members of the butler-hill group, especially ben gelbart, for their assistance with the pyramid creation and annotation. finally, we are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their many constructive comments. key: cord-325110-cfo5f99l authors: mirchi, nykan; ledwos, nicole; del maestro, rolando f. title: intelligent tutoring systems: re-envisioning surgical education in response to covid-19 date: 2020-09-10 journal: the canadian journal of neurological sciences. le journal canadien des sciences neurologiques doi: 10.1017/cjn.2020.202 sha: doc_id: 325110 cord_uid: cfo5f99l nan covid-19 has presented a series of unique challenges to surgical education. in the face of the global pandemic, access to traditional training techniques is limited. as health and safety have become top priorities, surgical residents have been reassigned to covid units and most elective surgeries have been either postponed or cancelled. for surgical trainees, these reductions mean the loss of crucial learning opportunities to practice technical psychomotor skills. for residents in their ultimate or pen-ultimate years of residency who are soon to complete their final exams, this is a significant concern. while online resources for operative anatomy are available and training in emergency surgical cases continue, the reduction in elective cases presents an important problem for residents. surgical educators are now faced with the challenge of ensuring their residents receive adequate training during this time. for both residents and surgical educators, it is impossible to predict how long this pandemic will last and what its effects on surgical training will be. advances in high-fidelity simulations provide residents with new opportunities to practice surgical skills and mitigate the challenges faced by current training paradigms including minimal access to standardized and objective feedback. these highfidelity simulations were first extensively employed in the aviation industry, where trainees are required to practice and be examined on simulators before becoming accredited. however, the development and integration of virtual reality simulation in surgical education has been limited, especially in fields involving complex bimanual operative skills such as neurosurgery. this has resulted in a slow adoption of high-fidelity simulation technology paradigms for the assessment, training, and evaluation of trainees in some surgical fields. the current global pandemic provides an opportunity to re-examine surgical education. 1 as many technical skills training programs are temporarily put on hold, residents as well as medical students are concerned about their ability to acquire the necessary skillsets to allow them to provide excellent care to their patients. simulators can be used to help trainees become familiar with specific surgical procedures, analyze 3d anatomical structures, and practice technical skills in risk-free environments. intelligent tutoring systems are automated teaching platforms capable of providing individualized performance feedback to learners using a variety of simulators. these systems, in combination with virtual reality simulators, allow important surgical training to continue even during a pandemic. intelligent tutoring systems integrated with virtual reality simulation allow operators to experience hyper-realistic tool interactions with the anatomical tissue. these systems can harvest the power of large datasets and utilize machine learning to automatically differentiate surgical expertise and provide feedback on operative performance. [2] [3] [4] the virtual operative assistant, an intelligent tutoring system powered by machine learning for neurosurgical simulation, discusses the limitations and challenges of this technology. 5 by deconstructing psychomotor skills into teachable metrics, trainees can obtain personalized feedback on specific factors identified by algorithms which may improve performance. an important factor when re-envisioning surgical education with automated teaching is how to accomplish a smooth integration of intelligent tutoring systems into current technical skills training. dedicated learning centers could be incorporated within active hospital environments, allowing timely and easy access to learners interested in improving surgical psychomotor performance. trainees could practice technical skills on the simulator to the level of mastery and obtain continuous feedback on performance in an iterative manner, with decreasing reliance on educator supervision. this learning-focused environment would provide trainees with an immersive and engaging way to practice and enhance their technical skills, all while practicing social distancing. a prototype for such a center is illustrated in figure 1 . we recognize that the cost associated with such a training center would not be insignificant. however, the value of their development and implementation need to be considered relative to the current toll of technical and procedural errors on patients and society. 6 mistakes in high-risk neurosurgical procedures also have high rates of medico-legal claims further increasing their impact on society. [7] [8] [9] the potential that training in these specialized centers will aid in the understanding and prevention of surgical errors needs to be rigorously explored. recognize that human interaction is vital to learning. rather, we believe that the integration and the wider availability of intelligent tutoring systems may complement present curricula while minimizing the impact of events such as a pandemic on trainees' skills development. surgical education programs will have to adapt in order to smoothly integrate automated and in-person education pedagogy. intelligent tutoring systems can utilize a variety of simulation platforms to provide almost unlimited opportunities for repetitive practice without constraints imposed by the availability of supervision. in these risk-free environments, numerous adaptable and clinically relevant simulations can be tailored to the needs of learners, consistent with best practices for simulationbased education. [10] [11] [12] these systems also increase the surgical educators' armamentarium to help learners achieve mastery levels of surgical performance. several studies are currently underway to compare the effectiveness of intelligent tutoring systems with more traditional formative teaching methods employed by surgical educators. the democratization of data accumulated from these simulation platforms is also important. 13 as simulators become more available across international training centers, it would be important to establish a centralized database of anonymized simulation data. this database should be accessible by research groups across the globe to develop more representative and generalizable models to power intelligent tutoring systems. as we navigate through these unprecedented times, the full impact of covid-19 on surgical education programs is yet to be ascertained. with continued research, increased development, and dissemination of intelligent tutoring systems, we can be better prepared for ever-evolving future challenges. innovations in neurosurgical education during the covid-19 pandemic: is it time to reexamine our neurosurgical training models? machine learning identification of surgical and operative factors associated with surgical expertise in virtual reality simulation artificial intelligence distinguishes surgical training levels in a virtual reality spinal task artificial neural networks to assess virtual reality anterior cervical discectomy performance the virtual operative assistant: an explainable artificial intelligence tool for simulation-based training in surgery and medicine medical errors in neurosurgery rates and characteristics of paid malpractice claims among us physicians by specialty, 1992-2014 malpractice risk according to physician specialty counting the cost of negligence in neurosurgery: lessons to be learned from 10 years of claims in the nhs comparative effectiveness of instructional design features in simulation-based education: systematic review and meta-analysis artificial intelligence in medical education: best practices using machine learning to assess surgical expertise in virtual reality simulation a comparison of visual rating scales and simulated virtual reality metrics in neurosurgical training: a generalizability theory study task force report on artificial intelligence and emerging digital technologies the authors are not advocating for the replacement of the present educational paradigms by automated systems. we this research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. nm and rfd conceptualized the manuscript. nm and nl wrote the manuscript with input and feedback from all authors. rfd was in charge of the overall direction and planning. key: cord-125402-9l4k3fle authors: darsena, donatella; gelli, giacinto; iudice, ivan; verde, francesco title: safe and reliable public transportation systems (salutary) in the covid-19 pandemic date: 2020-09-26 journal: nan doi: nan sha: doc_id: 125402 cord_uid: 9l4k3fle the aim of the salutary (safe and reliable public transportation systems) system is to employ modern information and communication technologies (ict) to proactively tackle crowding situations in public transportation (pt) systems,as a consequence of the limitations due to covid-19 pandemic. in particular, it is proposed to adopt in the various segments of the pt system (buses/trams/trains, railway/subway stations, and bus stops) suitable crowd detection techniques based on internet of things (iot) technologies, which measure in real-time the number of users, in order to: (i) monitor and predict crowding events; (ii) adapt in real-time pt system operations, i.e., modifying service frequency, timetables, routes, and so on; (iii) inform the users by electronic displays installed in correspondence of the bus stops/stations and/or by mobile transport applications. the salutary system can be implemented incrementally, as an add-on to the intelligent transportation system (its) solution already in use by major pt companies operating in urban areas. the system is designed as a flexible platform, which can be used to deliver, in addition to the innovative crowd detection/management functionalities, also additional services, such as on-line ticketing, vehicle access control and reservation in severely crowded situations, and evolved crowd-aware route planning. o ne of the most significant repercussions of coronavirus disease (covid-19) pandemic will regard the transport sector and mobility, in particular public transportation (pt) systems in urban areas. a recent survey carried out in china [1] estimated that, as a consequence of the outbreak, the use of private cars will be roughly doubled, increasing from 34% to 66%, whereas the use of public transports (buses/metros) will be more than halved, dropping down from 56% to 24%. furthermore, due to the lack of trust in pt systems, more than manuscript received september xx, 2020; revised xxx yy, 2020; accepted zzzz 2020. date of publication xxx 2020; date of current version yyy 2020. this work was supported in part by..... the associate editor coordinating the review of this manuscript and approving it for publication was dr. x. d. darsena is with the department of engineering, parthenope university, naples i-80143, italy (e-mail: darsena@uniparthenope.it). i. iudice is with italian aerospace research centre (cira), capua i-81043, italy (e-mail: i.iudice@cira.it). g. gelli and f. verde are with the department of electrical engineering and information technology, university federico ii, naples i-80125, italy [e-mail: (gelli,f.verde)@unina.it]. d. darsena, g. gelli, and f. verde are also with the national inter-university consortium for telecommunications (cnit), 80125 naples, italy. digital object identifier xxxx/yyyyyyyy 70% of the surveyed people not owing a car declared their intention to buy a new one, with negative consequences on the environment (landscape and air pollution) in urban areas. in italy, both national and regional authorities issued a number of rules aimed at limiting pt usage as well as avoiding bus and metro overcrowding, which severely limit their capacity to about 60% of the nominal capacity before the outbreak. the effects of such limitations are still not fully perceived, due to the breakthrough of mobility patterns associated to the widespread use of smart working and e-learning practices in education. however, it is expected that they will severely affect the fruition of pt in the recovery phase, when the transport demand will start to increase. moreover, since new outbreaks might be coming in the next months/years, it is likely that some features of pt systems must be adapted to structurally cope with these limitations. in many countries, to counteract the shift to private car usage, governments are favoring the use of individual sustainable mobility and micromobility means, such as bikes, electrical scooters, and segways, and they are planning and deploying the related infrastructures (emergency bike lanes) or powering vehicle sharing services, which can shift to this transport mode a certain percentage of short and medium-distance trips. however, owing to the large number of passengers carried by pt systems in urban areas, it is of utmost importance to adopt measures aimed at assuring safe and reliable pt usage. to this aim, the first adopted measures (during the lockdown) were devoted to minimizing the contagion risk, such as backdoor boarding, cashless operation, frequent sanitization of vehicles and stations, enforcing social distances, requiring the passengers to wear personal protection equipment (e.g., face masks and/or gloves). other medium-term measures are focused on intervening on pt system operations, such as modifying timetables, frequencies, paths, leveraging modal integration, and so on. some of these measures, like increasing pt service frequency to compensate for reduced vehicle capacity, are seen by pt companies as effective [2] , but not sustainable in the long term, due to the limited number of drivers and vehicles. thus, in the re-opening phase, when a capacity-limited pt system must cope with increasing volumes of passengers (especially with the reprise of school and university activities), it will be mandatory to dispose in real-time of reliable and capillary information about the crowding of pt vehicles (e.g., bus, tram, and trains) and of the related access infrastructures (e.g., bus stops and railway stations). such a knowledge will allow one to implement the necessary social distancing measures, while at the same time assuring an adequate level of service. real-time knowledge of crowding data can be used for fast or even proactive adaptation of pt operations (e.g., increasing the service frequency, reallocating vehicles from one line to another, planning alternative routes), in order to cope with spatially and/or temporally localized crowding situations, which cannot be tackled by conventional (statistical) tools used in transportation system design, such as, e.g., analysis of origin-destination flows. a significant performance improvement in crowd avoidance approaches can be ensured by exploiting information gathered by intelligent transportation systems (itss). in a modern its, commonly available data are automated vehicle location (avl) -via global positioning system (gps) -and automatic passenger count (apc) or automatic fare collection (afc). in [3] , optimization and planning strategies based on such data are surveyed, at four different levels: strategic, tactical, operational, and real-time. in particular, it is mentioned that the lack of passenger arrival information, especially in realtime, is a limiting factor for accurate studies. it is also stated [4] that "the availability of real-time passenger demand data can significantly improve the performance of control models in case of overcrowding". to overcome such limitations, and cope with covid-19related issues, a fundamental role can be played by information and communication technologies (ict) and internet of things (iot) technologies, some of which are already employed in state-of-the-art its. in particular, the fifth generation (5g) of cellular networks is potentially able to support massive iot connections, where billions of smart devices can be connected to the internet. in [5] , the use of new technologies, such as iot, unmanned aerial vehicles (uavs), artificial intelligence (ai), blockchain and 5g, for managing the impact of covid-19 in health applications has been considered. in [6] , [7] a review of technologies for social distancing has been provided, with emphasis on wireless technologies for positioning, including crowd detection and people density estimation. to the best of our knowledge, the application of ict and iot, particularly crowd-detection techniques, to cope with covid-19 effects in a pt system has not been considered yet. in this paper, we propose a new system concept, called salu-tary (safe and reliable public transportation system), aimed at integrating the legacy its, which is already available in many pt systems in urban areas, for fleet management and travel information purposes. specifically, the salutary system is built upon a distributed iot subsystem, composed by a network of capillary active/passive sensor, aimed at measuring passenger crowding in the different segments of the pt system (buses, trams, trains, bus stops, and railway/metro stations). the acquired measures are transmitted in real-time by a communication infrastructure to a control subsystem, which performs optimized and proactive management of the pt system. the crowding data can also be reported (in aggregated form, for privacy concerns) to the pt users, by means of ad hoc mobile applications (apps) or by integrating it in the existing mobile transport apps (e.g., moovit or proprietary operator applications). since crowding on pt systems has a big impact on travel satisfaction [8] , we are confident that the added features will be of interest for improving the quality of service also when the covid-19 limitations will be finally removed. the paper is organized as follows. in section ii, related work on crowd analysis, detection, and prediction is discussed. an overview of the salutary system concept and its architecture is given in section iii. various sensing solutions are presented in section iv for different indoor and outdoor scenarios of interest. section v is devoted to highlight innovations and advantages provided by the salutary system. finally, conclusions are drawn in section vi. estimating and predicting some features of a "crowd" in indoor and outdoor locations is an active research topic, with many applications, including surveillance and security, situation awareness, emergencies, and crowd management. in our application, the feature of interest is the number of components of the crowd and/or its density. a review of crowd analysis techniques for urban applications, including transportation systems, is provided in [9] , where different data sources are compared and discussed, including information fusion approaches. when dedicated crowd detection infrastructures are not available, crowdsourcing or participatory sensing 1 applications have been developed to acquire such information [10] , [11] . applications of crowd analysis to pt systems is described in [12] and [13] . in [12] , in particular, it is described a lowcost hardware/software solution to estimate the current number of passengers in a vehicle, by counting the number of probe requests, i.e., medium access control (mac) addresses, sent by wifi-equipped (ieee 802.11) devices in the vehicle. in [13] , such a passenger counting technique is incorporated in a bus navigation system capable of giving crowd-aware route recommendations: such a system has been tested in the municipal bus infrastructure of madrid, spain. one of the problem inherent to the use of techniques based on radio frequency (rf) for crowd sensing is the ability to distinguish between people outside the bus and actual passengers. this issue was tackled in [12] , [13] by filtering the probes by a sliding window, aimed at removing mac addresses that were not detected over a longer period of time. the system was able to detect only around 20% of the passengers, since several users may have turned off the wifi interface. moreover, the system is only tailored at crowd analysis in buses, and do not take into account other scenarios (trains, bus stops, and railway stations). in [14] , a crowdsensing-based pt information service is described, called trafficinfo, which exploits mobile or participatory sensing to enrich the static travel information without requiring deployment of a vehicle tracking infrastructure. a solution to count the people in a queue, based on bluetooth low-energy (ble) devices, is described in [15] . the system is completely passive and estimates the number of persons in the queue by analyzing the mean and variance of the received signal strength indicator (rssi) values between a ble beacon and a receiver covering a certain area. in general, rssibased approaches for crowd analysis exhibit good performance only for small monitored environments, where the propagation channel variation is mainly dominated by the attenuation caused by the present people. on the other hand, in a rich scattering environment, crowd analysis based on channel state information (csi) provides a more reliable people counting. in this respect, the received wifi and long term evolution (lte) downlink control signals are processed in [16] and [17] , respectively, to extract the changes of the propagation channel induced by the presence of different number of people. crowd prediction algorithms can be classified on the basis of the prediction horizon into short-term (less than 60 minutes) and long-term ones. they usually rely on three different types of information: (i) real-time load station data, (ii) real-time train load data, and (iii) historical data. the latter data aim to improve prediction by exploiting possible cyclic daily, weekly, or seasonal variations in passenger loads. prediction approaches can be further classified, on the basis of the prediction methodology, into model-based methods or data-driven ones. model-based methods include time-series analysis, regression modeling or kalman filtering models. in [18] , e.g., a traffic flow prediction algorithm based on timeseries is employed, and many variants have been subsequently proposed to improve the prediction accuracy. due to the highly nonlinear and random nature of traffic flow, datadriven approaches have recently gained significant attention, including k-nearest neighbor (k-nn) methods and artificial neural networks techniques (see, e.g., [19] , [20] and references therein). in some cases, simulation approaches, which employ traffic simulation tools to predict traffic flow, have been considered as well. most of these techniques are mainly devoted to congestion management in urban transportation and can exploit information from a multitude of sensor sources, including inductive loops, radars, cameras, gps, social media, etc. passenger load prediction for pt systems, instead, is less common: recent studies are [21] , [22] , [23] . the aim of the salutary system is to integrate/augment the its system already available in a pt urban system with innovative functionalities, aimed at smart and proactive control and reduction of passenger crowding. it is based on the integration of heterogenous sensing and communication technologies, depending on the operation scenario and the ict infrastructure available in the urban area where the system must be implemented. detailed system design involves strong interdisciplinary skills, including transportation engineering, telecommunications, computer science, electronics, data analyis, artificial intelligence and machine learning (ml). the salutary system is composed (fig. 1 ) by three subsystems: 1) the sensing and actuator subsystem (sass); 2) the communication subsystem (css); 3) the monitoring, prediction and control subsystem (mpcss). the proposed system introduces new data flows (marked in blue in fig. 1 ) compared to existing data exchanges (in violet) found in state-of-the-art its systems for pt services. the core and main innovative part of the system is the sass, with particular reference to the iot sensing technologies, whereas the actuator part mainly encompasses the flow of information toward the users, such as audio speakers, variable-message panels or displays, which are typically already present in the pt system, or can be readily installed at the bus stops or in the railway station (and even inside the vehicles). due to its centrality in our concept, we focus attention on such a subsystem in section iv. the characteristics of the css are strongly dependent on the communications infrastructure available in the urban area of interest, or the communication network owned by the pt service operator. in general, they encompass public wireless networks (such as cellular networks) and/or private wired and/or wireless networks owned by the operator, such as e.g. global system for mobile railway (gsm-r) or lte for railway (lte-r). to cope with this heterogeneity, it is envisioned that, at the protocol level stack, the css can be readily interfaced with the other subsystems by using standard interfaces and/or by means of simple adaptation layers. the mpcss performs data collection and real-time crowding prediction, also by means of ai and ml techniques. based on such predictions, modifications to the transport services can be implemented in real-time, the related control data are sent to service operators (drivers, supervisors, etc.), whereas service information is sent to the passengers by means of displays and/or mobile transport apps. this information could be notified by the same applications to all the users of the pt, so as to discourage the access to overcrowded stations and/or bus stops, and propose alternative travel solutions. in our concept, the mpcss is strongly integrated (and typically colocated with) the its control system of the pt service operator. the transportation scenarios to be considered for the sass are essentially of three types: 1) train and bus/tram (indoor scenario); 2) railway/metro station (indoor/outdoor scenario); 3) bus station (mainly outdoor scenario). in general, the sensing solutions to be adopted belong to the crowd detection family introduced in sec. ii-a. they can be classified [24] as visual-based (vb) solutions, based on still or moving images acquired by optical, thermal, or laser cameras, and non-visual based (nvb), which utilize techniques not based on optical sensors (mainly rf devices). the main characteristics of the available sensing solutions for the different scenarios are summarized in table i and will be discussed in the forthcoming subsections. thanks to recent advances in ai, traditional optical, thermal and laser vb sensors are becoming "smart" and can detect, recognize, and identify persons. optical cameras are widely used in private and public spaces for surveillance and security. thermal cameras can detect people in low-light environments, complete darkness, or other challenging conditions, such as smoke-filled and dusty environments. another option to detect and track persons is represented by laser imaging detection and ranging (lidar) sensors, especially in environments where there are several interacting people. however, these systems do not allow to estimate the number of present people with sufficient accuracy, due to possible obstructions, clutter, and poor light/weather conditions, and involve high deployment costs in complex environments. moreover, they require electrical power supply and may involve privacy problems. the main advantage of vb technologies is that they do not require cooperation/participation of the users. among nvb technologies, sensing systems based on mobile devices (also called crowdsensing or mobile sensing [25] , [26] ) represent an interesting solution, due to the diffusion of smartphones and other portable/wearable devices, such as pedometers, smart watches, or biometrical sensors. on one hand, compared to vb solutions, data collected by means of device-aided nvb systems can be used not only to count persons, but also to gather additional information, e.g., planned routes, passengers using off-peak hours group ticket, and so on. on the other hand, a problem inherent to deviceaided systems is that they usually require the cooperation of the people who must agree to share their data (so called participatory or collaborative sensing). to motivate participation, it is sometimes needed to introduce incentive or reward mechanisms, or introduce radical modifications in the procedures to access the pt service, such as an authentication phase to use the transportation service. although this issue could raise significant privacy concerns, it could also be useful as a means to increase the overall safety of the pt systems, by reducing the risk that infected people can access the system or the execution of possible crimes from people already known to the police. when device-aided nvb techniques cannot be used for crowd characterization, due to, e.g., lack of user cooperation and/or security issues, rf non-device aided approaches can be pursued, by analyzing the propagation channel variations of wireless signals (e.g. wifi or lte), which are induced by the people present in a given spatial area. the impact of the monitored people on the rf signal can be assessed either using traditional radar methodologies (range and doppler analysis) or by analyzing features extracted by channel quality measurements, such as rssi and csi. for vehicular scenarios, straightforward nvb solutions for passenger counting are passive infrared sensors (ir). in this case, a couple of ir emitter and receiver are mounted in correspondence of each gate of the vehicle. a passive ir (pir) sensor can detect variations of the ir signal, depending on the temperature and the characteristics of the surface interrupting the beam. more generally, many technologies are available to solve such a "crowd counting" problem in scenarios characterized by a well delimited space with a limited number of accesses. in the transportation community, apc systems [27] for rail and road vehicles are widespread and mainly based on simple technologies, such as counting from the number of afc or by using independent sensors, typically infrared (active) or pyroelectric (passive) sensors, or combinations thereof, aimed at detecting the passage of people at the gates. other techniques can be based on load sensors placed on the ground or on the suspensions, or pressure-sensitive switches ("treadle mats") placed on the steps, or weigh-in-motion (wim) systems, which estimate the number of passengers by the ground loading of the vehicles detected before and after the stops. more sophisticated techniques can also be employed, such as camera-based systems or combined sensing (such as ir plus rf or ir plus ultrasound). as indicated in table i , even though more sophisticated nvb technologies may be used as well, their usage is not expected to lead to significant innovations in this scenario, compared to the aforementioned simpler solutions and systems (i.e., pir, apc, afc, and wim). for this scenario, both vb and nvb technologies can be applied, as reported in table i . among the latter ones, near field communication (nfc) represents a viable solution that does not need to deploy special hardware [28] . nowadays, android and ios phones/tablets support this technology, by allowing mobile devices to act as a nfc reader/scanner. when a device with nfc functionality appears in the reader's working range, which can be placed at the gates or at any other fixed access point, it "wakes up" and sends a signal containing encoded data. the reader receives and decodes such data, and sends them to a management entity. another interesting solution for such a scenario can be to install 802.11 (wifi) access points in the stations, and the number of persons entering the stations can be estimated on the basis of the number of connections established by the user devices with the access points. in this case, the uplink signals transmitted by the user devices are sniffed to capture their network accesses and, thus, it can be categorized as a device-aided solution. in contrast, without requiring aid to the monitored devices, the number of users served by a wifi access point can be estimated by sniffing the downlink control information transmitted by the access point and relying on the fact that, as expected, there is a strong correlation between the number of people in the considered area and the variations of some features (e.g., rssi and csi) of the signal received by a dedicated device designed as a people counter. similarly to wifi networks, lte signals can be used for device-aided and non-device aided crowd counting, thanks to their ubiquitous availability and good penetration in indoor environments. for instance, they could be available in areas where the wifi coverage is not present, such as remote and small railways/metro stations. this scenario is by far the most difficult to manage, since bus stops are usually located in outdoor space not well delimited by fixed gates. also in this case, both vb and nvb systems can be used, but it is imperative to adopt costeffective, rugged and low-power solutions, in order to reduce the maintenance cost, as well as solutions that do not require significant infrastructures, since in many cases the bus stops are not equipped with shelters and are indicated by simple poles. bluetooth can represent an efficient solution: recently, a low-energy consumption version of the standard, called ble, has been introduced, which assures better communication performances with a limited power consumption. so-called bluetooth beacons, namely, small transmitting devices that transmit ble signals to compatible devices, can be easily installed at the bus stations, since they can be battery-powered and are characterized by simpler flexibility and simplified installation compared to wifi. this solution relies on the same technology introduced by google and apple in recent versions of smartphone operating systems, and is used by many national contact-tracing apps (e.g., immuni for italy [29] ). lte and 5g signals can also be exploited for counting people in bus stop environments. in particular, the deployment of 5g wireless technology over the coming decade is expected to rely on the introdution of many small cells working in the millimeter-wave (mmw) band. from the viewpoint of crowd analysis, the placement of small cells allows one to more precisely monitor spatially limited areas, like bus stops, with and without the aid of user devices. in addition, at bus stops, microwave sar tomography techniques [30] , [31] could provide specific images from which more detailed crowd information can be extracted, by using complex image classification algorithms (i.e., count, distribution, mobility, etc.); model issues induced by the intrinsic near-field scenario (e.g., typical for bus stops) could be overcome by using specialized algorithms [32] . the salutary system can provide original and innovative functionalities that are not present in the legacy its: proactive control of station access: in railway/subway applications, on the basis of the knowledge of the number of passengers aboard the arriving trains and the prediction of those getting off at the station, it will be possible to program the number of station accesses with a low error margin and in real-time. this number can be displayed at the users (by displays at the station gates or by the mobile transport apps) and can be used by the security operators to filter passengers at the turnstiles. priority policies can be envisioned, such as taking into account the time already spent in queue, or the trip motivations (e.g., a priority could be assured to health workers, disabled or elder users, law enforcement, and teachers/students). vehicle access reservation: in bus/tram trips, a vehicle access reservation system can be implemented, wherein a sensor at the bus stop detects the user presence and exchanges information with its device (i.e, the smartphone), so as to grant him/her the access to board the first arriving bus (a virtual queuing system) or putting him/her in an overbooking list (with priority) to allow him/her to board the next one. the application can generate an e-ticket with the access grant (e.g., a qr-code) that can be validated on board at the ticket machine. crowding information dissemination: users receive information related to capacity (in terms of number of seats or in percentage) of the bus/trains in arrival and/or the crowding at the bus stops/stations by means of displays installed in correspondence of the bus stops or at the entrance of the stations, or by alerts issued by mobile transport apps, so as to avoid unnecessary waiting and crowding and possibly reschedule their movements. crowd-aware route planning: users can plan their trips on the mobile transport app, by taking into account not only geographical information and traveling times (static data), but also traffic and crowding information about vehicles and bus stops/stations during the trip (dynamic data). the app can suggest not necessarily the shortest route, but the least crowded one, taking into account also crowding levels measured during the trip. such a feature not only help reduce crowds and the consequent infection risk, but also distribute more efficiently the load on the transportation network. at first sight, the salutary system can be seen as a technique aimed at enforcing social distancing measures. however, its scope is wider, since at the same time it tries to optimize the performance of the pt system. in practice, the aim of salutary is to increase the flexibility and adaptability of the pt system, to partially recover the drawbacks and inefficiencies due to the adoption of rigid social distancing measures, and to avoid the use of private cars with the obvious negative impact on the air quality in urban areas. the main advantages of salutary system are summarized in tab. ii. in addition, the salutary system can also be used at the end of the pandemic, allowing for more efficient planning and real-time control of the operation of the pt system, compared to static methods, like traditional survey-based compilation of origin-destination matrix flows. the large amount of generated data can be used by ai and ml algorithms to better understand and plan a series of aspects generally associated with improvements of the quality of life in urban areas and smart cities. the salutary system can also be useful to allow schools and universities to open as safely and quickly as possible for in-person learning. indeed, to enable schools and universities to open and remain open, it is important to adopt and implement actions to slow down the spread of covid-19, not only inside the school, but also in the pt system, by optimally and dynamically adjusting transport timetables. we presented in this paper the main functionalities and some potential applications of the salutary system concept. in particular, system-level considerations were reported to corroborate the feasibility of integrating state-of-the-art wireless iot technologies into the different segments of the pt infrastructure. the proposed system is based on some basic components and subsystems, to be used as building blocks to implement an evolved its, capable of real-time monitoring and predicting crowd situations, as well as disseminating useful information to users at the bus stops/stations and/or through mobile transport apps. some features of the salutary system are similar to those of a contact tracing system, which can be implemented more easily if based on user cooperation. in this sense, the crowd detection functionalities can be incorporated in a more complex system, which can implement, besides the typical mobile transport app functionalities (like moovit) also the possibility to buy tickets, to reserve the access to the vehicles, in conditions of particular crowding. this could represent a decisive incentive to the use of the system. however, the more appropriate crowd sensing solution must be singled out caseby-case, in dependence on the ict infrastructure owned by the pt operator, of the socio-economic context, and the costbenefits ratio. the potentials of the salutary system go beyond the scope of dealing with typical social distancing problems, by potentially allowing real-time optimization and management of the pt system. for instance, the success in preventing the introduction and subsequent transmission of covid-19 in schools and universities is strongly dependent on preventing disease transmission in the pt system used by students, families, teachers, school staff, and all community members. impact of coronavirus to new car purchase in china evolution of mobility sector during and beyond covid-19 emergency: a viewpoint of industry consultancies and public transport companies combining its and optimization in public transportation planning: state of the art and future research paths real-time holding control for high-frequency transit with dynamics a comprehensive review of the covid-19 pandemic and the role of iot, drones, ai, blockchain, and 5g in managing its impact a comprehensive survey of enabling and emerging technologies for social distancingã¢è�å¤part i: fundamentals and enabling technologies a comprehensive survey of enabling and emerging technologies for social distancing ã¢è�å¤ part ii: emerging technologies and open issues examining the factors that impact upon public transport commuting stress advances in crowd analysis for urban applications through urban event detection cooperative transit tracking using smart-phones how long to wait? predicting bus arrival time with mobile phone based participatory sensing crowd density estimation for public transport vehicles an internet-of-things enabled connected navigation system for urban bus riders crowdsending based public transport information service in smart cities cutiqueue: people counting in waiting lines using bluetooth low energy based passive presence detection device-free people counting in iot environments: new insights, results, and open challenges lte signals for device-free crowd density estimation through csi secant set and svd short-term prediction of traffic volume in urban arterials dynamic near-term traffic flow prediction: system-oriented approach based on past experiences supervised weighting-online learning algorithm for short-term traffic flow prediction a mesoscopic transit assignment model including real-time predictive information on crowding a real-time passenger flow estimation and prediction method for urban bus transit systems data-driven metro train crowding prediction based on real-time load data crowd analysis using visual and non-visual sensors, a survey a survey on mobile crowdsensing systems: challenges, solutions, and opportunities a review of mobile crowdsourcing architectures and challenges: toward crowd-empowered internet-of-things automatic passenger counting and vehicle load monitoring near field communication immuni documentation extended wavenumber-domain synthetic aperture radar focusing with integrated motion compensation sar tomography with optimized constellation and its application to forested scenes fast imaging of vegetation on gpus based on non-uniform ffts the authors would like to thank the ieee comsoc/vts italian chapter for supporting this work by awarding the first prize to the salutary proposal within the call for ideas in response to covid-19 outbreak in italy. key: cord-304070-jw1lxwyd authors: lapinsky, stephen e; wax, randy; showalter, randy; martinez-motta, j carlos; hallett, david; mehta, sangeeta; burry, lisa; stewart, thomas e title: prospective evaluation of an internet-linked handheld computer critical care knowledge access system date: 2004-10-14 journal: crit care doi: 10.1186/cc2967 sha: doc_id: 304070 cord_uid: jw1lxwyd introduction: critical care physicians may benefit from immediate access to medical reference material. we evaluated the feasibility and potential benefits of a handheld computer based knowledge access system linking a central academic intensive care unit (icu) to multiple community-based icus. methods: four community hospital icus with 17 physicians participated in this prospective interventional study. following training in the use of an internet-linked, updateable handheld computer knowledge access system, the physicians used the handheld devices in their clinical environment for a 12-month intervention period. feasibility of the system was evaluated by tracking use of the handheld computer and by conducting surveys and focus group discussions. before and after the intervention period, participants underwent simulated patient care scenarios designed to evaluate the information sources they accessed, as well as the speed and quality of their decision making. participants generated admission orders during each scenario, which were scored by blinded evaluators. results: ten physicians (59%) used the system regularly, predominantly for nonmedical applications (median 32.8/month, interquartile range [iqr] 28.3–126.8), with medical software accessed less often (median 9/month, iqr 3.7–13.7). eight out of 13 physicians (62%) who completed the final scenarios chose to use the handheld computer for information access. the median time to access information on the handheld handheld computer was 19 s (iqr 15–40 s). this group exhibited a significant improvement in admission order score as compared with those who used other resources (p = 0.018). benefits and barriers to use of this technology were identified. conclusion: an updateable handheld computer system is feasible as a means of point-of-care access to medical reference material and may improve clinical decision making. however, during the study, acceptance of the system was variable. improved training and new technology may overcome some of the barriers we identified. the rate of expansion of medical knowledge is increasing rapidly, and it is frequently difficult for clinicians to keep abreast of important new literature. for example, several recently published randomized controlled trials in critical care have demonstrated mortality benefits [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] , but uptake of new knowledge into clinical practice is often delayed [6] [7] [8] . improving access to this knowledge base at the point of care may lead to better clinical decision making, which could improve patient outcome, reduce costs and optimize bed utilization [9] . in critical care, rapid access to medical reference information may be particularly important in facilitating timely management decisions and avoiding errors [10] . computing technology can allow point-of-care access to upto-date medical reference material [11] . a study evaluating a mobile computerized cart to make evidence available to clinicians in an internal medicine setting [12] demonstrated that evidence-based medicine was more likely to be incorporated into patient care when the computerized system was used. because of their portability, handheld devices may be more practical tools for disseminating knowledge to the point of care. despite the popularity of handheld devices in medicine, few studies have evaluated the usefulness of this technology [13] . before widespread dissemination of this type of technology can be encouraged, its impact must be thoroughly evaluated [14] . in the present study we evaluated whether it would be feasible and effective to provide updateable reference information from a central academic centre to handheld computers used by critical care specialists in community hospitals. a total of 17 intensivists at four community hospital intensive care units (icus) in the greater toronto area participated in the present prospective interventional study. after training, each physician was equipped with a handheld computing device (palm m505; palm inc., milpitas, ca, usa) loaded with medical reference material pertinent to the critical care physician. this information included a customized critical care information handbook ('critical care'), which was previously developed for use by residents and physicians at our centre (additional file 1). commercially available medical reference software was also incorporated, namely pepid ed (pepid llc, skokie, il, usa) and medcalc http://med calc.med-ia.net/. the handheld devices were able to receive literature updates on a regular basis, using customized software (iqsync; infiniq software, mississauga, ontario, canada), which accessed an internet-based server using either a connection via desktop computer or infrared data transfer to a telephone modem (fig. 1 ). new information was sent to the handheld devices and appeared in a file called 'what's new'. these updates, provided every 2-3 weeks, comprised brief reviews of relevant new literature including a short summary, a commentary and the article abstract. all handheld devices were equipped with backup software that allowed the content to be rapidly restored in the event of a hardware failure (backupbuddy vfs; blue nomad software, redwood city, ca, usa). the devices were also equipped with software capable of generating a log of the applications used (appusage; benc software production, slavonski brod, croatia). between september and november 2002 the handheld devices were distributed to participating physicians, at which time they each received a 1-hour training session on the use of the handheld device and the internet link (fig. 2) . after training, the participants were able to utilize the devices in clinical practice for 12 months. we provided 24-hour support by telephone and e-mail, with a website for independent review. feasibility feasibility of the system was assessed by tracking physicians' use of the handheld device and tracking their access of the individual handheld applications during the study period. physicians who updated their handheld computers at least once a month for 6 months were identified as 'regular users'. a qualitative assessment of the system was achieved through surveys and focus group methodology. participants completed surveys at baseline to identify their prior familiarity with handheld devices, and at the end of the study period to evaluate subjectively the handheld reference system and the individual handheld applications. survey data were scored on a 7-point scale, in which 'poor' scored 1 and 'excellent' scored 7. an independent company (the nrc+picker group, markham, canada) conducted the focus group evaluations at the end of the intervention period, to determine the perceived utility of the information system. each hospital physician group participated in one focus group meeting. information sources that physicians accessed to make clinical decisions were evaluated during simulated patient care scenarios, completed in the physicians' own icu utilizing a computerized patient simulator (simman; laerdal medical corporation, wappingers falls, ny, usa). each physician completed one scenario before the handheld device was introduced (baseline scenario) and one at the end of the intervention period (final scenario), when the handheld device could be used (fig. 2) . a small pool of five scenarios with equivalent complexity was developed, such that physicians would likely need to access information sources in order to make management decisions. the scenarios involved unusual but important conditions, namely thyroid storm, myasthenia gravis, methanol toxicity, malaria and methemoglobinaemia. they were allocated to study participants in such a way as to avoid participants from the same site receiving the same scenario at the same time point, and to avoid repetition of scenarios among individual participants. each scenario concluded with the physician writing admission orders for the simulated patient. during the scenarios we tracked all medical reference sources utilized by the physicians, who were encouraged to use a 'think the internet-based data transfer system the internet-based data transfer system. updated information is downloaded to the handheld device from a study server. connection to the internet can take place via hardwire synchronization with a desktop computer or using infrared (ir) data transmission to a dial-up modem. isp, internet service provider. the study time course the study time course. aloud' process [15] . an audiovisual recording was made of the scenarios for later analysis, and when the handheld was used real-time screen capture was incorporated into the recording (additional file 2). this allowed us to document which handheld applications were accessed, the time taken to access information and the time taken to complete the scenario. we developed an objective scoring system for the admission orders generated at each scenario. the admission orders were assigned a score (range 0-100) by a critical care physician (sm) and critical care pharmacist (lb), who were blinded as to whether the physician used the handheld device. the scenario-specific scoring system allocated points for all necessary diagnostic and therapeutic interventions, weighted according to relative importance. negative points were given for potentially harmful orders. data are presented as median and interquartile range (iqr), and permutation tests were used for comparisons because numbers were small and not normally distributed. the differences between the final and baseline admission order scores and the time to completion of scenarios were calculated for each participant. a two-sample permutation test was used to compare these differences between the group of physicians who chose to use the handheld in the final scenario and those who did not use the device. admission order scores obtained for each of the five scenarios were compared. outcomes were considered statistically significant at α < 0.05. the sas system for window version 8.2 (sas institute, inc., cary, nc, usa) was used for all analyses. focus groups were recorded, transcribed verbatim and subsequently analyzed. themes were identified and unique perspectives on key issues noted [16] . the handheld information system functioned well during the study period. tracking of the deployment of handhelds identified 10 regular users (59%), four physicians (23%) who used the system variably and three physicians (18%) who never used their handheld device. the regular users accessed the personal information management applications more commonly (median 32.8 times/month, iqr 28.3-126.8) than the medical software (median 9/month, iqr 3.7-13.7; p = 0.028), although significant variation was noted (table 1) . baseline survey data identified that, of the 17 critical care physicians participating, 12 (71%) had previous experience with handheld devices (nine had used the palm operating system, and three had used windows ce) for a median duration of 1 year (range 1 month to 3.8 years). seven participants (41%) reported using handhelds for accessing medical information before the study. of the 16 final survey respondents, seven (44%) felt that the handheld system had had a positive impact on their clinical practice. the handheld medical applications (critical care, what's new, medcalc and pepid) received similar ratings, with overall evaluation scores ranging from 4.1 to 5.3 on the 7-point scale. four focus group meetings, involving a total of 13 participants (76%), identified the benefits and barriers to use of handhelds for information access, and made suggestions for improvement ( table 2 ). the overall impression of participants was that there is a role for handhelds for mobile information access, but that in situations away from the bedside other electronic media such as desktop computers were preferable. not all study physicians were able to participate in the simulated clinical scenarios on the pre-assigned day. fourteen physicians (82.3%) participated in the baseline scenarios and 13 (76.5%) in the final scenarios. information sources utilized during the baseline scenarios included the internet (50% of participants; e.g. medline searches and electronic textbooks), textbooks (43%), telephoning colleagues, the icu pharmacist or poison control centre (71%), and other sources such as pocket guides (21%). in the final scenarios, the handheld device was used as the primary source of information by eight participants (62%; table 3 ). of 14 information searches on the handheld device, 11 searches (79%) were successful and the median time to access information was 19 s (iqr 15-40 s). the information sources of those participants not using the handheld device were similar to those in the baseline surveys ( fig. 3 ). when scores recorded for each of the five clinical scenarios were compared, no significant difference was noted, reducing the likelihood that scenario assignment influenced outcomes. this study demonstrates the feasibility of using an electronic knowledge translation system to provide high quality, regularly updated medical reference information from a central academic centre to multiple peripheral users. user acceptance of this technology was not uniform, with just over half of the participants using their handheld devices to access information on a regular basis. nevertheless, the availability of point-ofcare access to information may have improved the quality of clinical decision-making. although mobile computing devices have potential beneficial roles to play in clinical medicine, few publications describe formal evaluation of this technology [13] . because the present study was an early hypothesis-generating evaluation of this technology, multiple quantitative and qualitative outcomes were measured. we generated novel data on the use of handheld devices in a clinical situation, but the study has several limitations. the number of physicians involved was relatively small, with a significant proportion not utilizing the technology. the allocation of clinical scenarios was not randomized, because they were allocated predominantly to avoid using the same scenario at the same site and time point. however, the analysis performed compared participants who used the handheld with those who did not; because it was not known which participant would use the handheld at the time of allocation of scenarios, potential bias was minimized. furthermore, the scenarios appeared to be equivalent in difficulty because no difference was noted when scores for the individual scenarios were compared. a confounding factor in the study was the outbreak of sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) from march to may 2003, which had a significant impact on the study icus [17] . participants were advised to avoid using their handhelds during patient contact because of the potential to transmit infection, and this affected continuity of the study. had we not encountered this event, utilization might have been higher. the lack of universal acceptance of this technology is not surprising and may be due to a number of factors, including inadequate training and the lack of familiarity with the technology [18] . training is essential when introducing handheld computing technology [19, 20] and, although all users underwent a training programme, the surveys and focus groups indicated a need for improvement. familiarity with handhelds is increasing, with 33% of all canadian physicians and 53% of under 35year-olds using these devices in 2003, but these levels of utilization remain relatively low when compared with use of the internet, at 88% [21] . increasing familiarity with the technology will probably increase acceptance of such a system. other potential barriers to use of the handheld system may be addressed by the rapidly developing technology, including improved screen resolution, ease of data entry and wireless connectivity. acceptance may be increased through the development of an all-in-one package on the handheld, allowing additional functionality such as decision support, billing, electronic prescribing and communication. the study demonstrated the potential role of an updateable handheld information system for knowledge translation in critical care. rapid access to current clinical guidelines may be a valuable component of a comprehensive solution to reducing error and improving efficiency. information access may be most beneficial in areas without full-time critical care physicians, particularly given the current imbalance between demand and supply with critical care physicians, which is expected to worsen [9, 10] . recent recommendations highlight the importance of leveraging information technology to standardize practice and promote efficiency in critical care [10] . handheld information access alone is unlikely to change clinical practice, but it should be considered a component of an electronic knowledge translation system. in many situations other media, such as desktop or tablet computers, may be preferable for information access. although the study was carried out in a critical care environment, such a system is probably applicable to other specialties in which clinicians are mobile and may not have ready access to a desktop computer (for example, anaesthesia, emergency medicine, home care). this study provides insight into the potential impact of this technology in improving health care outcomes [14] . nevertheless, further study that builds on our findings is essential to determine how these new technologies can best be incorporated into the patient care setting. a handheld computer system is feasible as a means of providing point-of-care access to medical reference material in the icu. during this study acceptance of this system was variable, and improved training and more advanced technology may be required to overcome some of the barriers we identified. in clinical simulations, use of such a system appeared to improve clinical decision-making. the acute respiratory distress network: ventilation with lower tidal volumes as compared with traditional tidal volumes for acute lung injury and the acute respiratory distress syndrome efficacy and safety of recombinant human activated protein c for severe sepsis bouillon r: intensive insulin therapy in critically ill patients effect of treatment with low doses of hydrocortisone and fludrocortisone on mortality in patients with septic shock early goal-directed therapy collaborative group: early goal-directed therapy in the treatment of severe sepsis and septic shock publication of study results does not increase use of lung protective ventilation in patients with acute lung injury introduction of sedative, analgesic, and neuromuscular blocking agent guidelines in a medical intensive care unit: physician and nurse adherence dreyfuss d: ventilator circuit and secretion management strategies: a franco-canadian survey physician staffing patterns and clinical outcomes in critically ill patients the critical care crisis in the united states: a report from the profession improving safety with information technology finding and applying evidence during clinical rounds: the 'evidence cart handheld computing in medicine what next for electronic communication and health care? analysis of complex decision-making processes in health care: cognitive approaches to health informatics qualitative evaluation and research methods 2nd edition critically ill patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) doctors' experience with handheld computers in clinical practice: qualitative study introduction of handheld computing to a family practice residency program surgical procedure logging with use of a handheld computer more than half of mds under 35 age now using pdas we acknowledge the contributions of the intensive care physicians from william osler health centre (brampton memorial campus), scarborough general hospital, north york general hospital and trillium health centre (mississauga). this study would not have been possible without the financial support of the change foundation of the ontario hospital association (grant 01011) and bayer canada inc. we acknowledge the technical support provided by infiniq software (http://www.infiniq.com; mississauga, ontario, canada) and would like to thank dr arthur slutsky and dr allan detsky for reviewing the manuscript and providing valuable comments. stephen lapinsky, randy wax and thomas stewart were responsible for study design. stephen lapinsky, randy wax, randy showalter and carlos martinez implemented the handheld system and collected study data. sangeeta mehta and lisa burry were responsible for data collection and interpretation. stephen lapinsky and david hallet analyzed the data. the manuscript was written by stephen lapinsky, randy showalter and thomas stewart, with all authors participating in revisions and giving approval to the final draft for submission for publication. the author(s) declare that they have no competing intrests. • this study demonstrated that an updateable handheld computer information resource is a feasible means for providing point-of-care access to medical reference information in the icu.• acceptance of this system was variable and may be improved by enhanced training and newer technological innovations.• in clinical simulations, this system appeared to improve clinical decision making. key: cord-326220-uosjmht0 authors: gaskell, jen; stoker, gerry; jennings, will; devine, daniel title: covid‐19 and the blunders of our governments: long‐run system failings aggravated by political choices date: 2020-08-11 journal: polit q doi: 10.1111/1467-923x.12894 sha: doc_id: 326220 cord_uid: uosjmht0 more urgently than ever we need an answer to the question posed by the late mick moran in the political quarterly nearly two decades ago: ‘if government now invests huge resources in trying to be smart why does it often act so dumb?’. we reflect on this question in the context of governmental responses to covid‐19 in four steps. first, we argue that blunders occur because of systemic weaknesses that stimulate poor policy choices. second, we review and assess the performance of governments on covid‐19 across a range of advanced democracies. third, in the light of these comparisons we argue that the uk system of governance has proved itself vulnerable to failure at the time when its citizens most needed it. finally, we outline an agenda of reform that seeks to rectify structural weaknesses of that governance capacity. the covid-19 pandemic has confronted every government in the world with a wide-ranging set of urgent challenges and policy dilemmas. some governments are considered to have handled the crisis better than others, prompting debate over the reasons for variation in performance. this article does not claim to provide a definitive answer to why some countries have fared better (so far) than others during the crisis and has no crystal ball as to what the future might hold for the virus. rather, it argues that to assess the performance of governments we should focus on how the structural features of governance systems interact with, and amplify, missteps in policy choices made by political leaders and their advisors. to develop our argument, we proceed as follows. firstly, we develop the idea that governance failures reflect not only policy choice errors but also structural features of governance systems that make shortcomings more likely. secondly, we briefly assess the performance of national governments on covid-19 in a range of european democracies and show that other comparable countries, with similar or less warning of the dangers of the virus than uk, achieved better outcomes. we argue that outcome was possible in part because those countries had governance systems with a greater depth and spread of decision-making points, resources, and the capacity to use them. no governance system is perfect, but some perform better than others and some are better able to mitigate the ever-present possibilities of deficient political choicesespecially in times of crisis. the uk population has suffered an excess mortality rate owing to the covid-19 pandemic in the first half of 2020 that was among the highest for comparable developed nations. collectively, those deaths represent a governance failure that demands we break from a history where policy disasters, failure, catastrophes, fiascos, and blunders have been a recurrent theme in assessments of british government. 1 our evidence and argument might be used to apportion blame, but it would be better deployed to encourage thinking and action about a radical reform of our system of governance the political quarterly and we conclude with suggestions for that process. a framework for understanding governance failure we need an answer to the question posed by the late mick moran in his essay in the political quarterly nearly two decades ago: 'if government now invests huge resources in trying to be smart why does it often act so dumb?'. 2 a useful framework based on an extensive reading of the comparative literature on policy failure is provided by jennings, lodge and ryan. 3 they identify factors that account for the propensity of governments to commit policy blunders and draw a distinction between those based on the intentional choices of individuals or groups of individuals and factors that reflect underlying structural features of systems of governance. blunders often occur because politicians and other policy makers take the wrong decisions (for example through over-or under-reaction to problems, or owing to preoccupation with ideological and symbolic concerns) or because the wrong policy tool is adopted to meet the challenge. sometimes policy choices are made with good faith and in the light of the limited evidence available, but turn out with the benefit of hindsight to have been mistaken. sometimes decision makers persist with courses of action at odds with available evidence and advice, against even their own interests, in the hope of turning failure into success. these choice-based causes of failure are widely recognised and often the subject of formal inquiries or media investigations, and are a focus for a politics of blame or, more positively, accountability at the ballot box. the focus on structures, however, is equally important and may hold the key to answering the question as to why blunders seem to be repeated regularly. how could structures or systems of governance affect the propensity to blunder? structures of governance frame the way that decision makers work and operate, what they can see and hear, what tools they think they have available to them, what resources they view as at their disposal, and how they view other actors in the system. different kinds of institutions allow individuals to think different kinds of thoughts and may indeed construct 'thought styles' that are self-reinforcing, blocking out potential challenges or collaborations. 4 all governance systems are multilevel and involve a mix of institutions and a distribution of power that can be either more centralised or decentralised. there is no perfect system of governance, but failure is more likely to occur when a structural weakness is compounded by a thought style that is problematic. table 1 highlights some prominent causes of governance failure that reflect these connected dysfunctional elements that in turn lead to policy blunders. let us examine the dynamic of each of these causes in more detail. there is a structural difference between governance arrangements that decentralise power within the system and those that concentrate power at the centre, as the uk tends to do. governance systems can be highly centralised and one advantage of this, it is claimed, is that they can make decisive and timely interventions. strong coordinating capacity is highlighted by many as essential to managing the covid-19 crisis. yet if coordination is replaced by either over-confident or ineffectual central direction these systems can be prone to blunders when combined with decision making affected by group think and defensiveness when challenged. other problems include over-confidence of governing elites driven by a lack of understanding of operational issues and limited access to operational know-how. these issues can be compounded by losses of institutional memory caused by perpetual administrative reorganisations and shrinkage of the central state machinery, which creates a recipe for policy blunders. a second structural feature rests on the distinction made by hooghe and marks between 'type i' and 'type ii' multilevel governance. 5 the first type reflects federalist thinking and disperses authority to a limited number of discrete, multipurpose governing units. the second type has different kinds of decentralised units constructed around functions and tasks, creating a complex mix of responsibilities and overlapping jurisdictions. most governance systems involve some mix of type i and type ii divisions. the emerging post-devolution settlement system in the uk creates an especially complex hybrid of these two multilevel governance models, with a strong emphasis on functional division combined with territorial autonomy granted in different forms to scotland, wales and northern ireland. such systems are characterised by functional divisions where some powers are 'devolved' (differently across the three nations in the case of the uk) while some are 'reserved' at the centre. what are the strengths and weaknesses of the two intergovernmental systems? type i systems, given the power vested in autonomous decentralised units, can be vulnerable to inertia and gridlock owing to obstruction by 'veto players' at different levels of government. pride in local, regional, or national autonomy, and a desire to express difference is the thought style commonly associated with type i systems. but a relatively small number of decentralised units and potentially effective integration does offer capacity for dialogue and negotiation between government levels, if participants are willing. type ii systems can be flexible and provide an opportunity for matching task to scale in a more varied way. the comparative advantage of these institutions is their technical expertise and concentrated focus. but the system in which they operate can suffer from complexity and proliferation of the number of institutions that might be involved in a cross-cutting task. type ii systems tend to encourage silo thinking in that they are set up to operate within their functional domain rather than to reach out beyond it. coordination problems and weak communication between different parts of government are common in type ii systems. hybrid systems such as that of the uk are even more vulnerable to failure where policy issues cut across both devolved and reserved functions, such as brexit for example and the covid-19 crisis. 6 connected to this last point is the argument that all systems of governance need effective joining up, and a third structural cause of failure is attributable to deficiencies in the connecting of separate spheres of governance. the division essential in any governance system is best when matched with collaborative capacities to share and incorporate knowledge relevant to policy making. 7 but collaboration is not easy and requires both partnership institutions, resources, and commitment and capacity for learning and adaptability. it also requires trust between levels of government as well as between government and citizens and sectoral interests such as businesses or wider civil society organisations. the relevant competences and technical capacities to support collaboration require shared values and mutual respect. failures of collaboration can arise because of breakdowns in information sharing and can be compounded by a thinking style reflecting a lack of trust and respect between actors, all of which can lead to governance failure and blunders. the fourth and final structural weakness is weak capacity for policy experimentation and adaption in response to heterogeneous local contexts. decision making benefits from a diverse mix of participants, thereby reducing group think. lu hong and page use mathematical modelling to show that when facing complex challenges, the best strategy is to not to rely on a team of 'the brightest and the best', but instead pick as diverse a group of problem solvers as possible. 8 why? again, the reason has to do with the way that institutions and contexts make people think. a centralised collection of similar, talented people will generate ideas and strategies of quality, but will tend to believe that one-size-fits-all and be prone to group think. a more diverse group will use different heuristics depending on their backgrounds, search more widely and with greater variety of outcomes for solutions, and will build their searches on the back of local knowledge and understanding that is not available to a group of the brightest and best. more institutionally focussed studies consistently demonstrate the advantages of power sharing and what the nobel prize winner elinor ostrom refers to as the advantages of decentralised systems nested in a polycentric system. for ostrom these advantages, established through painstaking research, include use of local and disaggregated knowledge, inclusion of trustworthy participants, and lower enforcement costs. 9 a capacity for local experimentation and a willingness to celebrate difference and diversity would appear to be a system-enhancing feature and their absence a potential cause of system failure. having established a framework for thinking about the causes of governance failure, we need to establish some assessment of the performance of different systems in the unfolding of the covid-19 crisis during the first half of 2020. we start, in figure 1 (a), with data relating to the outbreak in the uk and fifteen other west european countries (france, germany, italy, spain, austria, the netherlands, ireland, portugal, finland, norway, greece, belgium, denmark, sweden, switzerland), with the uk's trajectory indicated by the black line and the other countries shown in grey (since our focus is on the comparative performance of the uk). we choose these countries as advanced democracies that are geographically proximate to the uk and broadly comparable in terms of the level of economic development and the public health systems. the figure plots the number of reported cases of covid-19 in each country from january to june 2020. this reveals that while the outbreak in the uk initially lagged behind three other countries (italy, spain and france), by mid-may it had overtaken its european counterparts-with the slope of its curve steeper at the end of the period, indicating that the growth of cases was declining at the slowest rate. it is also possible to compare the timelines and restrictiveness of the containment policies put in place by the governments of these countries, using the oxford covid-19 government response tracker (oxcgrt). this systematically collects information on common policy responses and calculates a standardised scale of the stringency of government measures. the index is plotted in figure 1 (b) and highlights the different timings and levels of stringency of containment measures across western europe. this tells us how quickly the country shut down, in the context of the severity of the health impact of the virus. what is most striking from this graph is that, with the exception of sweden, the uk was the last major european country to introduce significant restrictions on social and economic life-waiting until 23 march to do so, when other countries had already enacted substantial containment policies by 18 march at the latest. this delay is more notable if one considers that even by 18 march the uk was sixth in terms of cases (1,950) and fourth in terms of deaths (81). it also highlights that it began to ease its shutdown around the same time as many other countries, despite having a considerably higher number of cases. in broad comparative terms, this evidence suggests that the uk has performed badly during the pandemic, an observation supported by a death toll from covid-19 that is at the top of those recorded by developed nations, notwithstanding some differences in counting practices. a quick look at other cases suggests how things might have been different, without suggesting that any country met the challenges without problems or stumbles. with one of the largest ageing population in europe and a healthcare infrastructure weakened by a decade of austerity, portugal took the threat posed by the virus very seriously and moved quickly to close schools and impose a more general lockdown on 16 march when it had recorded just 245 cases, although an outbreak of cases from late may onwards has damaged its reputation as a 'safe destination' for visitors to some degree. one commentator suggested that strong central direction was crucial for achieving this outcome: 'although the epidemic is concentrated in the north, around the city of porto, portugal's centralized system of government allowed for rapid nationwide measures rather than the piecemeal regional action adopted elsewhere.' 10 throughout the crisis, the portuguese government applauded citizens' 'civic spirit' in complying with strict containment measures that were clearly and consistently communicated to them, including the early days of easing restrictions on a regional basis in light of differing requirements. the government also benefitted from the collaborative approach taken by the opposition, with social democratic party (spd) member of parliament ricardo baptista leite observing: 'we're no longer dealing with the socialist government; we are dealing with the government of portugal', further noting 'we are having very candid but supportive meetings to present constructive criticism and also solutions through back channels, showing a sense of unity for the national interest.' 11 in denmark, prime minister metter fredriksen delivered her lockdown address to the nation on 11 march when the country had around 500 recorded cases, closing schools against the recommendation of its health authorities. 12 denmark has a well-developed multilevel governance system with decentralised power to regional and local authorities. in this case, strong central direction was combined with a reflective, consensual style of leadership. in her announcement, fredriksen urged citizens to 'stand together by keeping apart', a message that struck a chord of national solidarity among danes. she also acknowledged that the country was entering uncharted territory and took responsibility for 'undoubtedly making mistakes along the way'. 13 neighbouring sweden is an interesting case because its light-touch response has been at odds with other european countries. indeed, its schools and industry have remained largely open throughout the pandemic, with central government providing support to furloughed workers and healthcare provisions delivered by regional and local authorities. in this way, sweden offers a model of coherent strategic direction combined with a coordinating approach by the centre, strongly influenced by its chief epidemiologist anders tegnell. however, in contrast to other scandinavian countries its covid-related fatalities passed the 5,000 mark in mid-june, and its strategy has been widely criticised as having failed to manage down the number of cases while experiencing the same economic downturn as countries that pursued stricter lockdown measures. while jon pierre argues that the strategy was premised on erroneous assumptions regarding asymptomatic transmission, he also describes a failure of governance arrangements in the lack of capacity at regional and local levels in terms of healthcare staff training and the absence of communication channels between different governance levels which were traditionally perceived to be successful within their functional remits. 14 when this perceived competence broke down in the crisis, the lack of mechanisms for collaboration and mutual learning, according to pierre, resulted in 'poor performance of nursing homes and other elements of elderly care' which only became apparent to the government months into the pandemic. 15 some countries who did not benefit from a strong central direction and its perceived ability to provide swift, decisive actions were able to leverage other aspects of their more decentralised systems. germany for example suffered early delays in implementing any nationwide policy. unlike denmark and portugal, which implemented strict measures before any covid-related deaths, germany only closed schools three days after its third death was recorded on 12 march. it then suspended public events and closed its land borders four and eight days later, respectively. 16 germany's relative success so far has been credited to two main factors: chancellor angela merkel's leadership style and the country's decentralised response to the crisis. 17 the country's leading coronavirus expert has stated that besides being extremely well-informed, merkel's successful steering of competing regional and local interests through the crisis can be attributed to her leadership style of 'thoughtfulness and ability to reassure', as well as not seeking to use the crisis as a political opportunity. 18 a spokesperson for the german federal government also attributed the country's low mortality rate to 'a confluence of many other factors. these include the country's federal system of government, which means there are hundreds of health officials overseeing the pandemic response across the 16 states, rather than one centralized response from the country's national health ministry'. 19 switzerland suffered similar delays to germany at the very start of the crisis as a result of its highly decentralised federal system. however, as the pandemic developed, it benefitted from inclusion of a broader range of stakeholders in decision making. indeed, all three levels of governance-the federal, cantonal (regional) and communal (equivalent to county or city councils)-mobilised resources to tackle the outbreak. each commune has the power to issue its own specific guidance in line with federal and cantonal directives. according to the swiss press, communes are at the frontline of the response effort. 20 in switzerland, mutual learning is institutionalised in policy making at the cantonal and communal levels which continuously informs and is integrated into central decision making. during the crisis, these consultation mechanisms were accelerated rather than discarded, taking place weekly and feeding into crisis decision making. this seemed to have been further strengthened by a commitment to different approaches and providing local governance centres with the freedom and resources to undertake what they feel is needed for their communities. the commune of bovernier, for instance, a small village with 900 inhabitants in the canton of valais, decided to call each of the 110 households with a resident over the age of sixty-five to arrange food and medicine deliveries. 21 in geneva, orca's (organisation in case of catastrophe and extraordinary situation) immediate focus was on job security and support for commercial organisations. in this way, different approaches are encouraged for their localised capacity to innovate rapid, relevant responses, as the realisation emerged among various stakeholders that 'one-size might not fit all'. these examples highlight several points. firstly, it is not necessarily the formal constitutional arrangements of a governance system (federal or unitary) that matter as the capacity to work through and with the system in place-an argument behind the framework put forward by jennings, lodge and ryan. secondly, it is not only that some countries adopted better tools than others, but also the case that some proved better at implementation. crucially, countries needed to avoid the drivers of governance failure identified in table 1 : not relying too much on central direction or allowing rigidity in structures to undermine dialogue. they need also needed to be capable of effective collaboration and local adaption to circumstances. most countries partially failed at least one of those hurdles. the uk, as we shall see, failed all four. in this section we outline how structural failings and dysfunctional policy choices have combined to produce such a flawed response to the covid-19 crisis in the uk. following the framework presented in table 1 , the uk suffered in part because of over-weening and ineffectual central direction. an initial list of where these issues were to the fore would include: a sluggish approach to implementing lockdown measures; catastrophic shortage of personal protective equipment (ppe) for frontline medical staff; failure of the government's 'ventilator challenge' to deliver new machines to meet expected increases in demand; confusing communications that have led to a chaotic experience of easing lockdown; no clear plan in place for the reopening of schools to all pupils in england; and the continued failure to deliver an operational 'test, track and trace' system that is widely deemed essential for safe easing of lockdown measures. the centre of british government lacks operational understanding or links to learn from those at street level and in other centres of government. perhaps the most consequential decision reflecting that structural weakness at the early stages of the crisis was the discharging of elderly patients from hospitals to care homes without mandatory covid-19 tests-until the requirement was introduced on 15 april. in march, nhs england and nhs improvement had advised hospital trusts to expand critical care capacity (a major concern based on the italian experience) by freeing up hospital beds-which contributed to increased discharge of patients to care homes who were potentially carrying the disease. between 9 march and 13 april, one in five care homes (around 3,500 in total) reported at least one outbreak of covid-19 to public health england (phe). there were also signs of over-confidence and group think at the heart of british government. on 3 march, as italy reached seventy-nine deaths, the prime minister reported 'our country remains extremely well prepared', and (contrary to the guidance from scientific advisors) declared 'i'm shaking hands'. this proved symbolic of the casual approach taken by the government (which may have been shaken when multiple members of the government fell ill with the virus), and covid-19 was subsequently optimistically characterised by the prime minister as 'overwhelmingly a disease that is moderate in its effect'. 22 the group think problem was arguably evident in three key areas: an over-reliance on data-driven modelling in making key policy decisions; a reluctance by the scientific advisory group for emergencies (sage) to consider lockdown measures deemed politically out of scope; and the consistent drive to centralise implementation. the government's reliance on epidemiological modelling to inform its strategy meant it was only on 16 march, after new data suggested that critical care capacity in the nhs could be overwhelmed, that sage advised more stringent restrictions be introduced as soon as possible. this was despite evidence being available from italy at the start of march that one in ten people infected with the virus required intensive care. well before that, the unusually rapid construction of sixteen temporary hospitals in wuhan in january should have provided a clear warning of the intense pressures that health services would soon face. even at this point-before the uk's shutdown was implemented-it was known that authorities in south korea, hong kong, singapore, and taiwan had successfully brought the virus under control (with effective test, track and trace operations, and widespread wearing of masks by citizens), yet this did not figure prominently in deliberations of policy responses among uk experts. the 'data-driven' approach taken by sage, on behalf of the government, meant that these information signals from more obvious sources were ignored. coordination problems and low-grade conflicts between levels of government were also constant issues. the devolved governments complained about lack of consultation, as did other public bodies including local authorities, hospitals, and gp services. a constant flow of changing centrally-driven directives to agencies of all types created a sense of confusion and frustration during the initial phase of lockdown. this issue is further highlighted by the way containment measures have been eased across england. after the government announced a relaxation of guidelines on 2 june, the mayors of greater manchester and liverpool held a joint press conference urging a revision of guidance based on localised r estimates. 23 these examples suggest a lack of commitment to sustained consultation, with key stakeholders seemingly excluded from the planning phases of both these strategies. the government's plan that schools would reopen again for all pupils on 1 june offers a notable example, when it was scrapped following opposition from local councils and teachers' unions who argued it to be impossible while maintaining social distancing guidelines. this was further compounded by the ensuing blame game between government on the one hand, and local authorities and teachers' unions on the other, over who was at fault for the failure to get pupils back to the classroom before the summer holidays. throughout its response, the uk government has been plagued by inconsistent (and some might say incoherent) messaging and implementation. much of this is the result of a mixture of conflictual relationships at different governance levels, which systematically results in a lack of integration, collaboration and mutual learning, and a weak capacity to experiment and tailor policy to meet the diverse needs of different locations with different demographic makeups, cultures and dominant industries. the ways in which these structural elements of the uk's governance system hampered an effective response to the pandemic were apparent as soon as lockdown guidelines were issued. for a time in march, the nhs 111 service provided conflicting messages to uk travellers returning from italy to that of ministers. also, the government guidelines for the construction sector were published and then immediately withdrawn as they were deemed unworkable on construction sites by industry specialists. 24 more directly, early tracking of the spread of the virus encountered difficulties, as despite a reliable test having been developed for covid-19, phe had limited capacity to carry out the testing (and that capacity was initially assigned to tests for seasonal flu), and was slow to allow the expansion of testing through labs in hospital trusts, universities and private settings. 25 these issues were compounded by a strong preference for onesize-fits-all solutions which is often contrasted to the successful and decentralised german approach to testing. the uk's governance system's weak capacity to experiment and tailor policy to meet diversity is illustrated in its failure to stockpile ppe for health workers, instead sticking to 'just in time' procurement principles until april-leaving staff in hospitals and care homes to work without protection. 26 little exemplifies more the confluence of structural failures which led to a national inability to track and trace covid-19 cases than ceredigion council's development of its own in-house test, track and trace system, which contributed to one of the lowest death rates across the whole of the uk. 27 this example shows that local centres of governance can possess a large amount of knowledge and resourcefulness which, if leveraged, can enable responses that benefit local communities and highlight best practice or innovative measures that could be replicated elsewhere. these have been neglected in the uk's response to covid-19. so far, the uk experience has seen little attempt at allowing local capacity and resources to energise and innovate in responding to the pandemic. local authorities and the primary health care teams based around gp surgeries have been largely overlooked, despite their local knowledge and contacts, exemplifying the uk's tendency to centralised, one-sizefits-all policy solutions. we have provided only a partial explanation of the weaknesses of the uk's policy response to covid-19 because we want to focus attention not so much on the complexity of policy choices made in the context of high uncertainty and crisis, but how failings reflect broader structural weaknesses and associated thought styles within the uk system of governance. there is a more detailed, nuanced, and complicated narrative to tell about what went wrong (and perhaps what went right) in the uk government's handling of covid-19. certainly, how the government's response was influenced by its ideological instincts and interests, and the nature of scientific advice that it received, seem important factors to understand. but our primary objective has been to illustrate from the experience of other countries that there are better ways to govern (and be governed). notably, the chief advisor to the prime minister has previously made a similar observation about the profound failings of our governing system: one of the most extraordinary aspects of english politics and education is the lack of structured, disciplined thought about what works and doesn't work, and how to build reliable systems that allow improvement in performance . . . most activity in whitehall occurs without asking 'who, somewhere in the world, has already solved this problem? ' 28 maybe it is time to also think about the deep-rooted structural imperfections of our governing system, and the tendency of successive generations of our political class to bandage over them with piecemeal reforms rather than thinking more holistically about why our patchwork of governance lacks coherence and continues to hoard power and resources at the centre. we think, contrary to the arguments of the chancellor of the duchy of lancaster, that neither relocation of the civil service to dispersed geographical locations, nor the fostering of greater intellectual diversity in its makeup by recruiting scientists, data scientists, or mathematicians, provide the answer (though there is merit in both proposals). 29 it is, rather, another example of mick moran's charge that by focussing on quick-fix solutions to make government smart (past solutions have included performance management and contracting-out) we run the risk of making it dumber in new ways. the covid-19 experience already hints at the limits of data science in the context of the absence of good, up-to-date data and subject to conditions of considerable uncertainty. our agenda for reform, outlined in table 2 , is both more prosaic and more radical. we identify short-and long-term mitigation strategies. different approaches and choices by political leaders could provide more consensual leadership, a willingness to share ownership for problems and insights, greater trust, and mutual respect between levels of government and a wider openness to local learning and diversity. these would all represent improvements in the governance arrangements of the uk. longer-term we need structural reforms that shift both powers and responsibilities, and clearly define and enshrine them on a constitutional basis, rather than muddling through as has long been the british political tradition. we do not offer detailed proposals, but rather map out a general direction of travel. we need more decentralised government with a matching redistribution of powers and resources. that decentralisation must be consistent and comprehensive, rather than uneven, unequal and inchoate. we need much more effective institutions for mutual exchange and consultation between levels and types of government. we need to know much more about what good practice is, what drives it and how it can be replicated. parallel to that we need to abandon centralised one-size-fits-all thinking and instead recognise the need for local tailored solutions and experimentation. policy disasters: explaining the uk's record not steering but drowning: policy catastrophes and the regulatory state not steering but drowning comparing blunders in government how institutions think unraveling the central state, but how? types of multilevel governance intergovernmental relations in the uk: time for a radical overhaul?', the political quarterly collaborative governance in theory and practice groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers 281-2; and for further carefully constructed evidence on the advantages of power sharing see p. norris, driving democracy. do powersharing institutions work? how portugal became europe's coronavirus exception first to close-first to reopen: denmark's gain from virus response', financial times statsminister mette frederiksens indledning p a pressemøde i statsministeriet om corona-virus den 11 nudges against pandemics: sweden's covid-19 containment strategy in perspective how portugal became europe's coronavirus exception the inquiry: why does germany have such a low number of deaths from covid-19? for many, i'm the evil guy crippling the economy"', the guardian germany's coronavirus response: separating fact from fiction les communes en premi ere ligne de la pand emie prime minister's statement on coronavirus (covid-19) north west mayors want to empower communities with weekly publication of r number, to encourage local decision making construction confusion as uk working instructions published then withdrawn how the uk got coronavirus testing wrong', financial times government ignored warning to stockpile ppe as covid-19 spread', the guardian the area of wales that missed coronavirus-and the simple system it set up the hollow men ii: some reflections on westminster and whitehall dysfunction', dominic cummings's blog the privilege of public service', ditchley annual lecture given by michael gove this article is part of the work the three-year trustgov project (https://trustgov.net/) funded by the uk's economic and social research council (es/s009809/1). key: cord-018038-gqdylj6n authors: snyder, william m.; wenger, etienne title: our world as a learning system: a communities-of-practice approach date: 2010 journal: social learning systems and communities of practice doi: 10.1007/978-1-84996-133-2_7 sha: doc_id: 18038 cord_uid: gqdylj6n we live in a small world, where a rural chinese butcher who contracts a new type of deadly flu virus can infect a visiting international traveller, who later infects attendees at a conference in a hong kong hotel, who within weeks spread the disease to vietnam, singapore, canada, and ireland. fortunately, the virulence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) was matched by the passion and skill of a worldwide community of scientists, health care workers, and institutional leaders who stewarded a highly successful campaign to quarantine and treat those who were infected while identifying the causes of the disease and ways to prevent its spread. in such a world, we depend on expert practitioners to connect and collaborate on a global scale to solve problems like this one – and to prevent future ones. as global citizens. what does it mean to 'think globally and act locally'? does global stewardship primarily imply building international organisations that address social and environmental issues to compensate for the economic focus of global corporations? is such a global perspective sufficient to address issues that are essentially local? how can we connect the power and accessibility of local civic engagement with active stewardship at national and international levels? what are the design criteria for such a system and what might it look like? we believe there are three fundamental design criteria that help specify essential characteristics of a world learning system capable of addressing the scope and scale of the global challenges we face today. problems such as overpopulation, world hunger, poverty, illiteracy, armed conflict, inequity, disease, and environmental degradation are inextricably interconnected. moreover, they are complex, dynamic, and globally distributed. to address such challenges, we must increase our global intelligence along several dimensions: cognitive, behavioural, and moral. we must increase, by orders of magnitude, our societal capacity for inquiry; our ability to continuously create, adapt, and transfer solutions (churchman, 1971) . a world learning system that can match the challenges we face must meet three basic specifications: • action-learning capacity to address problems while continuously reflecting on what approaches are working and why -and then using these insights to guide future actions. • cross-boundary representation that includes participants from all sectors -private, public, and nonprofit -and from a sufficient range of demographic constituencies and professional disciplines to match the complexity of factors and stakeholders driving the problem. • cross-level linkages that connect learning-system activities at local, national, and global levels -wherever civic problems and opportunities arise. civic development is essentially a social process of action learning, in which practitioners from diverse sectors, disciplines, and organisations work together to share ideas and best practices, create new approaches, and build new capabilities. the full potential of this learning process is only realised when it connects all the players at various levels who can contribute to it. there are a number of organisations -including the united nations, the world bank, and an array of nongovernmental organisations such as doctors without borders, the world council of churches, oxfam international, major foundations, and many others -whose mission is to address worldwide problems. but these organisations typically focus on solving the manifestations of problems -eliminating land mines from war-torn regions or reducing the incidence of aids, for instance. given the urgency of these problems, it is understandable that these organisations do not focus on the underlying learning capacity of a city or country. while it is essential to address these and other urgent problems on their own terms, our society's longterm capacity to solve them at both local and global levels will nevertheless require step-change increases in our foundational capacity for intelligent social action. what is the nature of large-scale learning systems that can operate at local and global levels? how can we take steps to create such learning systems? to what extent can they be designed and what does design even mean in such a context? these learning challenges are among our world's most urgent as we find ourselves today in a race between learning and self-destruction. fortunately, we have examples of transformative, inquiry-oriented learning systems in hundreds of private-sector organisations, with a growing number in public and nonprofit organisations as well -at both organisational and interorganisational levels. strong, broad-based secular forces are driving this movement. most organisations today, including domestic firms as well as multinationals, have been forced to confront large-scale learning issues to compete in the knowledge economy. there is much we can learn from the experience of organisations about how to increase our society's collective intelligence. the most salient lesson is that managing strategic capabilities primarily entails supporting self-organising groups of practitioners who have the required knowledge, use it, and need it. we call these groups 'communities of practice' to reflect the principle that practitioners themselves -in active collaboration with stakeholders -are in the best position to steward knowledge assets related to their work. a well-known private-sector example of such practitioner stewardship is the network of 'tech clubs' that chrysler engineers formed in the early 1990s (see wenger et al., 2002, chapter 1) . the company had just reorganised its product-development unit into 'car platforms' focused on vehicle types (small cars, large cars, minivans, etc.). design engineers with specialties related to the various vehicle components -such as brakes, interior, and windshield wipers -organised communities of practice to foster knowledge sharing across car platforms. the cross-boundary sharing of these communities was a critical success factor for the reorganisation. we are now seeing a proliferation of organisations fostering the development of communities of practice across industry sectors, geographic locations, and various elements of the value chain. communities of practice are not new. they have existed since homo sapiens evolved 50,000 years ago, 1 but organisations have now become increasingly explicit about cultivating these communities. distinctive competencies in today's markets depend on knowledge-based structures that are not restricted by formal affiliation and accountability structures. the most distinctive, valuable knowledge in organisations is difficult or impossible to codify and is tightly associated with a professional's personal identity. developing and disseminating such knowledge depends on informal learning much more than formal -on conversation, storytelling, mentorships, and lessons learned through experience. this informal learning, in turn, depends on collegial relationships with those you trust and who are willing to help when you ask. informal learning activities and personal relationships among colleagues are the hallmarks of communities of practice. hence, we see an increasing focus on informal community structures whose aggregate purpose is to steward the learning of an organisation and its invaluable knowledge assets. communities of practice have three basic dimensions: domain, community, and practice. a community's effectiveness as a social learning system depends on its strength in all three structural dimensions. • domain. a community of practice focuses on a specific 'domain,' which defines its identity and what it cares about -whether it is designing brakes, reducing gun violence, or upgrading urban slums. passion for the domain is crucial. members' passion for a domain is not an abstract, disinterested experience. it is often a deep part of their personal identity and a means to express what their life's work is about. • community. the second element is the community itself and the quality of the relationships that bind members. optimally, the membership mirrors the diversity of perspectives and approaches relevant to leading-edge innovation efforts in the domain. leadership by an effective 'community coordinator' and core group is a key success factor. the feeling of community is essential. it provides a strong foundation for learning and collaboration among diverse members. • practice. each community develops its practice by sharing and developing the knowledge of practitioners in its domain. elements of a practice include its repertoire of tools, frameworks, methods, and stories -as well as activities related to learning and innovation. the activities of a community of practice differ along several dimensionsface-to-face to virtual; formal to informal; public to private. further, activities are orchestrated according to various rhythms -for instance, in one community, listserv announcements come weekly, teleconferences monthly or bi-monthly, projects and visits occur when an opportunity presents itself, back-channel e-mails and phone calls are ongoing; and the whole group gathers once or twice a year face-to-face (see fig. 7 .1). these activities form an ecology of interactions that provide value on multiple levels. beyond their instrumental purpose of creating and sharing knowledge, they increase the community's 'presence' in members' lives and reinforce the sense of belonging and identity that are the foundation for collective learning and collaborative activities. communities of practice do not replace more formal organisational structures such as teams and business units. on the one hand, the purpose of formal units, such as functional departments or cross-functional teams, is to deliver a product or service and to be accountable for quality, cost, and customer service. communities, on the other hand, help ensure that learning and innovation activities occur across formal structural boundaries. indeed, a salient benefit of communities is to bridge established organisational boundaries in order to increase the collective knowledge, skills, and professional trust of those who serve in these formal units. for instance, at daimlerchrysler, brake engineers have their primary affiliation with the car platform where they design vehicles. yet they also belong to a community of practice where they share ideas, lessons learned, and tricks of the trade. by belonging to both types of structure, they can bring the learning of their team to the community so that it is shared through the organisation, and, conversely, they can apply the learning of their community to the work of their team. pioneering, knowledge-intensive organisations have recognised that beyond the formal structures designed to run the business lies a learning system whose building blocks are communities of practice that cannot be designed in the same manner as formal, hierarchical structures. communities of practice function well when they are based on the voluntary engagement of members. they flourish when they build on the passions of their members and allow this passion to guide the community's development. in this sense, communities of practice are fundamentally self-governed. our experience suggests, however, that while communities do best with internal leadership and initiative, there is much that organisations can do to cultivate new communities and help current ones thrive. the intentional and systematic cultivation of communities cannot be defined simply in terms of conventional strategy development or organisational design. rather, sponsors and community leaders must be ready to engage in an evolutionary design process whereby the organisation fosters the development of communities among practitioners, creates structures that provide support and sponsorship for these communities, and finds ways to involve them in the conduct of the business. the design of knowledge organisations entails the active integration of these two systems -the formal system that is accountable for delivering products and services at specified levels of quality and cost, and the community-based learning system that focuses on building and diffusing the capabilities necessary for formal systems to meet performance objectives. it is crucial for organisational sponsors as well as community leaders to recognise the distinct roles of these two systems while ensuring that they function in tandem to promote sustained performance. the fundamental learning challenges and nature of responses in business and civic contexts are very similar. the size, scope, and assets of many businesses create management challenges that rival those of large cities, or even small countries. in both cases, one needs to connect practitioners across distance, boundaries, and interests in order to solve large-scale problems. organisations have found that communities of practice are extremely versatile in complementing formal structures. they are known for their ability to divide and subdivide to address hundreds of domains within and across organisations; they lend themselves to applications where scalability, broad scope, and the need for extensive, complex linkages are relevant. hence there is much we can learn from the early, highly developed business examples. the approaches for building largescale learning systems in organisations -by combining both formal and informal structures -provide a blueprint for thinking about how to build such systems in the messy world of civil society. communities of practice already exist in the civic domain, where they complement place-based communities as well as the ecology of formal organisations, including businesses, schools, churches, and nonprofits. in the civic arena as well as in organisations, our challenge is not to create communities of practice so much as to foster them more systematically. our analysis of societal learning systems -whether at local, national, or international levels -focuses on cities (which we define as an entire metropolitan region) as highleverage points of entry for a number of reasons. for one, as of the year 2000, there are more humans on the planet living in cities than outside them. in 2002, there were twenty megalopolises in the world with more than 10 million people, and by 2015 there will be nearly forty. cities have always been the font of new ideas, new applications of technologies, new cultural movements, and social change. they constitute natural nodes in a network for disseminating innovations. in the problems they face and the opportunities they offer, they also provide a microcosm of the world. finally, cities possess an organisational infrastructure and established leadership groups with the potential to see the value and to sponsor the design of a local learning system. in many cities, multisector coalitions or alliances are formed to take on a pressing issue such as improving urban schools, increasing access to low-income housing, cleaning up a business district, or building a stadium, park, or cultural facility (see grogan and proscio, 2000) . these coalitions, however, generally do not take sustained responsibility for stewarding a civic domain or for bringing together the full array of stakeholder constituencies to identify and address short-and long-term priorities. one way to assess the level of civic stewardship in any city or region is to map the prevalence, inclusiveness, and effectiveness of civic communities of practice (also known as coalitions, associations, partnerships, and alliances, among other terms) who take responsibility for clusters of issues related to particular civic domains, such as education, economic development, health, housing, public safety, infrastructure, culture, recreation, and the environment. the reality is that in many cities these domains have no explicit stewardship, or they are left to public agencies the city as a learning system: stewarding the 'whole round' of civic domains or to a menagerie of disparate, often competitive and conflicting organisations that carve out small pieces of the puzzle -regarding housing availability, for examplebut do not coordinate efforts or leverage a common base of expertise and resources. the city, re-imagined as a learning system, consists of a constellation of crosssector groups that provide stewardship for the whole round of civic domains (see fig. 7.2) . cultivating a learning system at the city level means taking stock of the current stewardship capacity in the city and accounting for the array of civic disciplines and the quality of active communities of practice stewarding them. this city-level assessment provides a template for what a nation can do. at the nation level, leaders might evaluate a representative sample of major cities and regions as a baseline assessment of its civic stewardship capacity. by extension, an evaluation of the top 500 strategic cities in the world could provide a benchmark for our civic learning capacity at a global level. at the national and global levels, the analysis also considers the strength and quality of linkages across cities both within and across nations. of course, even at the city level, there are subsectors and neighbourhoods that are fractal elements of the city, each with its own whole round of civic practices, and among which neighbourhood-to-neighbourhood linkages are as instrumental as ones that connect cities and nations. a city-based initiative to promote economic development in chicago provides an example of an effort designed to leverage communities as agents of civic development. 2 in 1999, the city of chicago established a cross-sector coalition, the mayor's council of technology advisors, to create 40,000 new high-tech jobs in the chicagoland region. the coalition leaders began by pulling together a group of forty-five civic leaders to brainstorm ways to achieve this goal. according to a study commissioned before the group met, the greatest challenge they faced was encouraging business development in high-tech industries such as telecommunications and biotech. a related challenge was cultivating local sources of seed capital for start-ups in these industries. the result of the group's first meeting was a slate of long-and short-term initiatives -including the introduction of technology in schools; encouraging young women and minorities to explore technology careers; and building a stronger digital infrastructure in the city, especially in underserved areas. several of the groups focused on initiatives specific to the industry sectors identified in the initial study: telecommunications, software development, biotech, venture capital, and emerging areas such as nanotechnology. the industry groups were particularly successful in this initiative, largely because they were able to coalesce communities specific to development challenges in each industry sector. the civic leaders in chicago understood that coalescing communities of practice -in this case, along industry lines -was the foundation for building relationships, generating ideas, and catalysing business initiatives. as one leader put it, 'our first objective was to create communities, period. the technology industries were fragmented without a sense of commonality. for example, we have more software developers than in silicon valley, but here it's only 9% of the workforce. so we started getting people connected and networked and building a sense of community in our high-tech sectors.' the chicago biotech network (cbn) is one of the more mature high-tech communities in chicago and provides an illustration of the influence and stewardship such a community can have over time. cbn started as a grassroots group that held about five seminars a year for diverse constituents interested in biotech developments. at first, it was more for individuals interested in life sciences. then companies (such as abbott laboratories and baxter, two fortune 500 pharmaceuticals located in the chicago area), started to attend the meetings as well, and they brought different perspectives. over time, the community came to include scientists, university deans, lawyers, venture capitalists, angel investors, city and state business development staff, and others. anywhere from twenty-five to two hundred people showed up at the meetings, which were held at various places and sponsored by members. these gatherings provided an opportunity for members to discuss science and industry trends and build relationships. one of the leaders summarised the community's evolution: 'early on, people mostly came for the personal value of networking and discussing ideas. now the domain of the community is to promote science and business development in the biotech sector in the chicago area. we focus on science ideas, business development know-how, and knowledge transfer processes.' offshoots of community activities include targeted events that link scientists, angel investors, and large pharmaceuticals to fund biotech startups that can commercialise promising innovations coming out of university labs. on a broader level, the community has helped increase biotech lab space in the city, lobbied at state and federal levels for increased research funding, and recruited biotech companies to locate in chicagoland. the leader of the chicago-based biotech community estimated the value of the community's activities for generating start-ups and, by extension, job creation in the region: 'i can't point to anything specific, but our events have brought structure to the interface between r&d scientists and the venture community; and we've gone from very little venture funding to the point where we now have $50 million coming to various biotech companies this year.' the chicago biotech network illustrates how an industry-based community of practice can serve as a powerful force for civic development. in this case, the focus was on economic development, but the key point is that strong stewardship of civic issues, even in the hard-nosed area of industry development, depends on vital communities of practice. the purpose of the communities was not only to provide professional development and networking opportunities but also to cultivate thriving high-tech industries in chicagoland. these communities advocated for their domain as a strategic focus for the city, built relationships among community members from various backgrounds, and shared know-how among practitioners. finally, as one community leader stated, they worked to serve the city they loved, and ultimately their children, who would inherit their civic legacy. communities of practice can also provide powerful stewardship for civic issues at the national level by connecting innovative civic groups across cities. the safecities community, for example, was organised in march 1999 by vice president al gore's reinventing government initiative to reduce gun violence in the united states. the announcement of the safecities community coincided with publication of the fbi's crime-rate statistics, which showed significant variation across cities in injuries and fatalities caused by gun violence. senior executives in the national partnership for reinventing government (npr) office began by convening officials from relevant agencies and developing a shared vision for what the network would be about and how they would work together. they sent out an invitation to cities and regions nationwide and selected ten coalitions to participate in the safecities communitybased on criteria that included multisector collaboration, a track record of innovation, and commitment to improved results. these local coalitions provided stewardship for public safety issues in their cities as did the industry-focused communities in chicago. a striking characteristic of the initiative was that it offered participants no funding -the value of participation was to get connected, to learn, and to enhance the capacity to reduce gun violence. the scale of the initiative was also distinctiveconnecting civic coalitions from across the nation for the purpose of sharing ideas, collaborating on innovation initiatives, and helping to shape policy at local, state, and federal levels. 3 the safecities community can be described in terms of the three structural dimensions of communities of practice. each of the coalition members was focused, broadly speaking, on issues related to the domain of public safety. their specific domain targeted a subdomain within this area -defined as reducing injuries and fatalities due to gun violence. the specificity of this domain was crucial for coalescing a community with overlapping interests, focusing its learning activities, and attracting sponsors. the community was composed of members at local and national levels and from various disciplines and constituencies, such as officials from the fbi, the bureau of alcohol, tobacco, firearms and explosives, and an assortment of divisions within the justice department at the national level; and mayors, police chiefs, faith leaders, hospital and social workers, school principals, neighbourhood activists, and district attorneys at the local level. finally, the practice of safecities members included community policing strategies, after-school programs, crimemapping methods, prosecutorial strategies, the design of local gun-possession laws, and ways to improve the interaction between at-risk youth and law-enforcement professionals. after a couple of preliminary teleconferences, safecities was launched at a faceto-face meeting in washington, d.c., explicitly billed as a community-of-practice launch. the sponsors and community coordinating team (based in the npr office) posed three basic questions for the group to address during the 2-day conference: what is safecities about (domain)? who is part of safecities (community)? what does safecities do (practice)? the conference included opportunities for members to meet informally, including an evening reception and knowledge-sharing 'fair'. a nationally renowned police chief from highpoint, north carolina, gave a talk about his city's success at reducing gun violence through both rehabilitation and enforcement efforts that focused on the city's most violent individuals. (he was so impressed with the gathering that he asked npr officials if his coalition could join, and they agreed to make his group an honorary member.) during the conference, members outlined a design for how they would learn together -including teleconferences, visits, a website, and other activities. the issues they identified became topics for their biweekly teleconferences. the conference was instrumental in coalescing members around a shared agenda and building trust and reciprocity. the safecities teleconferences subsequently became more active and members were more forthcoming about selecting topics and offering to speak to the group about their experiences. fostering 'community' -a sense of mutual trust, shared identity, and belonging -took on more prominence as an important structural element that made safecities successful. one of the outcomes of the initial conference illustrates the value of network participation for members. after hearing the highpoint police chief talk about his success, groups from ft. wayne, indiana and inkster, michigan -including police chiefs, mayors, and faith leaders from both cities -visited highpoint and observed programs in action. both coalitions then adapted the highpoint model for their own locales with coaching from highpoint. safecities operated successfully from march 1999 until june 2002, spanning the transition from a democratic to a republican administration. political appointees from both parties, as well as senior civil servants in the justice and treasury departments (where the sponsorship was primarily based) believed in the crosslevel, cross-sector approach that safecities embodied. sponsors were impressed to see such active participation on the part of senior civic leaders, even though they received no government funding for participating. these local leaders felt strongly about the value safecities provided -in terms of ideas, access to expertise, and opportunities for national visibility and influence based on local success. agency sponsors ultimately decided to close the safecities community in favour of a more conventional federal program. the decision confused many of the participants, given the minimal federal costs associated with the initiative, principally the cost of funding the community's full-time coordinator (a junior staff person, albeit a talented leader) and intermittent attention by agency champions. the coordinator's role was particularly important -arranging speakers for teleconferences, documenting insights on the website, arranging peer-to-peer visits, and coordinating with state and federal officials. the loss of the coordinator and agency attention was a fatal blow to the community. in its place, the us justice department enacted a new program, called safeneighborhoods, which provided funding for local initiatives such as after-school programs. the program managers intended to build on the safecities foundation, but they did not appreciate the distinctive characteristics of the community -opportunities for peer-to-peer learning and collaboration across cities, sectors, and levels of government. while safecities members were glad that the government was providing new funds to support local initiatives, they passionately argued that such funding could never substitute or compensate for the value of the safecities community. the safecities story thus validates the power of cross-city communities of practice while highlighting a key challenge: how to educate senior leaders with the power to sponsor such initiatives -from public, private, or nonprofit sectors (including foundations). these and other questions about starting, sustaining, and scaling such initiatives must be addressed for communities to succeed at local, national, and international levels. at the international level there are a myriad of professional groups and organisations that focus on global civic issues. in recent years a number of these have developed a stronger emphasis on peer-to-peer learning and innovation among members from diverse disciplines. the ayuda urbana initiative was started in conversations about developing municipal capabilities between world bank urban specialists and several mayors of capital cities in the central american and caribbean region. they recognised the value of connecting with peers across borders to address problems and challenges that all cities in the region face. a group of ten cities decided to participate in the initiative: guatemala city, havana, managua, mexico city, panama city, san josé, san juan, san salvador, santo domingo, and tegucigalpa. the people involved in the project include the mayors and their staff in each of the ten cities. additional partners include the world bank, which provides overall coordination, some regional organisations to provide local legitimacy, and the british and dutch governments to provide funding. 4 the project was to create a constellation of communities of practice that would take advantage of the knowledge available in the participating cities. the domains would focus on a challenge of urban development and management the cities shared, including e-government, urban upgrading, environmental sanitation, municipal finances, urban transportation, renovation of historical city centres and poverty alleviation, and disaster prevention and management. the communities would consist of urban specialists in each domain from the participating cities and from local organisations. together they would build their practice by comparing experiences and sharing resources across cities, with input from world bank experts about what had been learned elsewhere. the communities of practice were officially launched through a series of 2-day workshops, each focused on one of the topics. each workshop brought together specialists from the participating cities as well as a few world bank experts. the purpose of the workshops was to • create an initial forum to develop relationships and trust through face-to-face interactions among participants • provide an opportunity for each participating city to share its experience • engage participants in a discussion of lessons learned based on presentations by world bank experts • establish a prioritised list of the most pressing issues and most frequently asked questions • introduce web-based tools for use in facilitating an ongoing learning process and train participants to use the system • choose a person to coordinate the collection of resources to be shared via e-mail and the web site. the project has created an interactive website, available to the public, which serves as a repository for the various communities of practice. the site includes a library of resources, downloadable manuals, bibliographic references, and proceedings of meetings. in addition, the site hosts an online forum to give participants the opportunity to discuss issues, ask questions, share relevant information, and stay in touch. for example, a community member asked how to price waste management services. another member from san salvador responded with a posting that explained how his city determined the price of such services. the ayuda urbana initiative illustrates the value of collaboration across borders to address urgent issues in urban development, and it raises salient issues common to international communities. creating communities of practice among cities from different countries is not all that different from similar efforts within a country, but there is additional complexity. the regional focus of ayuda urbana meant that participants spoke the same language and shared a cultural context. the situation would have been more complex if the project had expanded beyond the region. another issue is the role of the convener when members do not share the same national government. sponsorship has to come from an organisation like the world bank, which can appreciate the vision of cross-border communities and the subtleties involved in cultivating such communities. indeed, ayuda urbana represents the latest development of a broader initiative at the world bank to focus on knowledge as a key lever in the fight against poverty. the bank started an initiative in 1998 to support the development of communities internally, and since then the number of communities has grown from twenty-five to more than a hundred -and the influence of several has been considerable. an external study of the communities found that they were the 'heart and soul' of the bank's new strategy to serve its clients as a 'knowledge bank.' the ayuda urbana initiative highlights the importance of a skilled convener who is committed to a community-based approach as a way to address societal challenges. in this case, the world bank is applying the same knowledge strategy with client countries that it has been applying internally. indeed, the bank's experience in cultivating communities of practice was critical to the success of the ayuda urbana project. the result is a new model for facilitating knowledge development among countries. experts at the bank consider it their task not just to provide their knowledge to clients but to build communities of practice among them as a way to develop their capabilities. the bank experts still have a role to play, but not in a one-way transfer. instead, their contribution takes place in the context of a community of practice that emphasises peer-to-peer learning. this approach models a shift in the traditional relationship between sources and recipients of knowledge. cultivating civic learning systems involves many of the challenges that organisations face in cultivating internal learning systems, but many of these become amplified in the civic context. the domains are especially complex; the communities tend to be very diverse; and the practices involve different disciplines, varied local conditions, and less well-defined opportunities to work together on projects. but perhaps the greatest challenge is the scale required for civic learning systems to leverage their full potential and match the scale of the problems they address. how do you significantly increase the scale of a community-based learning system without losing core elements of its success -identification with a well-defined domain, close personal relationships, and direct access to practitioners for mutual learning? the principle to apply is that of a fractal structure (see gleich, 1987; wheatley, 1994) . in such a structure, each level of substructure shares the characteristics of the other levels. applying such a design principle, it is possible to preserve a small-community feeling while extending a system from the local to the international level. local coalitions such as the chicago biotech network and each of the safecities partners created a local focus of engagement that made it possible for members to participate in broader networks at national and international levels. the idea is to grow a 'community of communities' in which each level of sub-communities shares basic characteristics: focal issues, values, and a practice repertoire. each dimension of a community of practice provides opportunities for the constitution of a fractal learning system. fractal domain. in many cases, domains may start more broadly and eventually subdivide as members discover nuances and opportunities to focus on different subtopics or to apply a topic to different localities. ayuda urbana, for example, is spawning subdomains related to particular civic practices and engaging members with particular expertise and interest in those areas. the city-based coalitions of safecities focused on the same issues but within the context of their situations. all these subdivisions retain a global coherence that gives the entire system a recognisable identity and allows members to see themselves as belonging to an overall community even as they focus on local issues. fractal community. topical and geographic subgroups help create local intimacy, but they must be connected in ways that strengthen the overall fabric of the network. a key to this process is multimembership. members such as those in the safecities network join at the local level but end up participating in multiple communities in ways that help interweave relationships in the broader community. as a result, they become brokers of relationships between levels in equivalent types of communities. this works because trust relationships have a transitive character: i trust people trusted by those i trust. the police chief in highpoint, for example, had developed strong relationships with fbi officials, which in turn encouraged his peers to work more closely with federal agents. fractal practice. useful knowledge is not of the cookie-cutter variety. local conditions require adaptability and intelligent application. a fractal community is useful in this regard because it allows people to explore the principles that underlie a successful local practice and discuss ideas and methods in ways that make them relevant to circumstances elsewhere. a fractal community can create a shared repertoire and develop global principles while remaining true to local knowledge and idiosyncrasies. moreover, if one locality has a problem or an idea, the broader community provides an extraordinary learning laboratory to test proposals in practice with motivated sites. in the safecities community, local coalition members were ready and willing to share results quickly and convincingly with peers and then translate these into action. a safecities member from michigan reported, for example, that a visit to meet with innovating colleagues in highpoint 'added ideas and motivation to an initiative that we had been planning for a year. once our mayor visited, he wanted to do it.' highpoint members then helped the michigan coalition adapt their model successfully. each locality constitutes a local learning experiment that benefits from and contributes to the overall learning system. the key insight of a fractal structure is that crucial features of communities of practice can be maintained no matter how many participants join -as long as the basic configuration, organising principles, and opportunities for local engagement are the same. at scale, in fact, the learning potential of the overall network and the influence at local levels can increase significantly. the key challenge of a large-scale learning system is not whether people can learn from each other without direct contact but whether they can trust a broader community of communities to serve their local goals as well as a global purpose. this depends on the communities at all levels -local, state, national, and international -to establish a culture of trust, reciprocity, and shared values. developing this social capital across all levels is the critical success factor for going to scale. the evolution of a learning system must therefore be paced at the time-scale of social relationships, not according to an externally imposed objective to achieve short-term results. organisers need be careful not to scale up too fast. they need to establish trust and shared values at different levels of aggregation through various mechanisms, including a network of trusted brokers across localities. in the civic domain, the institutional context can be fragmented and the issues politically charged. this presents particular challenges for finding sponsorship, organising support, and managing potentially conflicting constituencies. sponsorship. all three communities depended on sponsorship from executives such as the mayor of chicago, the vice president of the united states, or representatives of the world bank and funding governments. sponsorship is especially important for large-scale learning systems that will require additional activities to connect localities. it can be difficult, however, to identify the 'client' who benefits when a learning system is so dispersed. when you try to engage a city to sponsor a constellation of cross-sector communities of practice to address an array of civic domains, where do you start? a civic community of practice is such an innovative approach that leaders typically do not have enough context to see its value. sustained sponsorship, furthermore, requires community members to make the value visible enough to demonstrate the payoff of sponsor and stakeholder investments. finally, the legitimacy of sponsorship can be contested in a politically fractious context, where the role of institutions such as the world bank or the federal government in orchestrating local affairs is not universally welcome. support. process support was key to the communities we have described. they needed help with local event planning, finding resources, coordinating projects across levels, finding others to connect with, and designing ways to connect. all three communities needed facilitation at meetings, and safecities and ayuda urbana both required moderation for their online interactions. a challenge for civic learning systems is that there may be no clearly defined institutional context or financing model for process support. the ayuda urbana experience also suggests that one must be ready to provide a lot of support at the start to help develop members' local capabilities and prepare the group to operate more independently. civic communities of practice also need help to build a technology infrastructure for communicating across geographies and time zones, and for building accessible knowledge repositories. this can be particularly difficult when communities span multiple organisational contexts. conflict management and collaborative inquiry. civic communities of practice organised around contentious issues such as housing, education, and health will face considerable obstacles from formal and informal groups with entrenched and opposing views and interests. there are good reasons these basic conflicts have been so intractable: views and values are divergent and trust among players is often low. moreover, businesses, nonprofits, governments, and universities have reasons to resist the development of communities of practice. these formal organisations and their leaders have developed established, privileged positions in society, and changes initiated by community members may not be welcomed. inevitable mistakes early on could further diminish low trust levels and reduce the low-to-medium public readiness to invest time in these unfamiliar social commitments. communities that face such tensions will have to develop expertise in collaborative inquiry and conflict management and learn to build trust over time through activities that enable members to find common ground. there is an emerging, global zeitgeist about community and learning. these issues have become commonplace in multinational organisations -private, public, and nonprofit. still, when one looks at the learning requirements of the world, the complexity of the required learning system may seem so overwhelming as to discourage action. but the advantage of a community-of-practice approach is that it can be evolutionary -starting small and building up progressively, one community at a time. it is not necessary to have broad alignment of the kind required for designing or changing formal structures. we can start wherever there is opportunity, energy, and existing connections. we can build on what already exists. indeed, we have found successful examples of initiatives to cultivate learning systems: within cities, across cities at a national level, and across cities internationally. taken together, these early examples paint a picture of what a mature world learning system may look like, and they give some indication of what it will take to cultivate such a system. we now need to develop frameworks for describing the organisational nature of civil society as a community-based action-learning system -and tools and methods for cultivating such systems. this chapter is thus not only a call to action and a proposal for what is possible. it also calls for a new discipline. a discipline that expands the field of organisation design and applies analogous principles at the world level. a discipline that promotes the development of strategic social learning systems to steward civic practices at local, national, and global levels. a discipline whose scope is the world and whose focus is our ability to design the world as a learning system -a discipline of world design. this chapter is only a beginning. there are many established and emerging disciplines -political science, economic sociology, social network analysis -that can inform the work in this domain. a community-based approach to world design is not a silver bullet for solving the problems of the world. while the emphasis here has been on community, a complete discipline of world design would address how the power of communities can be most fully realised by aligning community activities within a broader ecology of formal and informal structures -institutions, cultural groups, laws, and social networks. to steward such a discipline, we need a community of practice ourselvesor indeed a constellation of communities on the topic of world design, at local, national, and global levels. for instance, a small group of people passionate about civic development may gather to outline an approach to cultivating the city as a learning system. they might connect with various civic leaders and extant initiatives, and organise a gathering for the purpose of assessing the implicit structure of the city today as a practice-based learning system. which practices have active stewardship? what groups are providing it with what sorts of initiatives and results? who is represented? where is the focus of sponsors -such as local government, corporations, universities, the media, and foundations? to what degree is there a shared language and understanding across constituencies of the nature of crosssector civic governance and how to participate effectively? these questions become the concerns of 'meta-communities' at various levels, which can link together -as a community of meta-communities -and build their own practice to support the development, effectiveness, and influence of civic communities at all levels. the complexity and intelligence of such a social learning system must match the complexity of world-design challenges and the knowledge requirements associated with them. the messy problems of civil society require a commensurate capacity for learning, innovation, and collaboration across diverse constituencies and levels. the challenge to intentionally and systematically design and develop the world as a learning system must be a global, diverse, interwoven social movement. this social movement is not simply about advocacy; nor is it a political revolution. rather, it is about the transformation of civic consciousness -a way of thinking about governance as an action-learning process, as a role for civic actors across sectors, as a process that links the local and global in clear and concrete ways. and it depends, fundamentally, on individuals finding a way to participate locally -whether that means a community of place or practice, or both -a way that gives them access to the entire learning system. let us begin. the division of labor in society chaos: making a new science organizing for economic development in chicago: a case study of strategy communities of practice: a new tool for managers,' ibm endowment for the business of government our world as a learning system: a communities-of-practice approach ayuda urbana: a constellation of communities of practice focused on urban issues and challenges in central america, mexico, and the caribbean region. written for the beep project of the european union cultivating communities of practice leadership and the new science key: cord-325445-80p6wthw authors: goh, ong sing; fung, chun che; wong, kok wai title: query based intelligent web interaction with real world knowledge date: 2008-03-14 journal: new gener comput doi: 10.1007/s00354-007-0031-7 sha: doc_id: 325445 cord_uid: 80p6wthw this paper describes an integrated system based on open-domain and domain-specific knowledge for the purpose of providing query-based intelligent web interaction. it is understood that general purpose conversational agents are not able to answer questions on specific domain subject. on the other hand, domain specific systems lack the flexibility to handle common sense questions. to overcome the above limitations, this paper proposed an integrated system comprises of an artificial intelligent conversation software robot or chatterbot, called artificial intelligence natural-language identity (hereafter, aini), and an automated knowledge extraction agent (akea) for the acquisition of real world knowledge from the internet. the objective of akea is to retrieve real world knowledge or information from trustworthy websites. aini is the mechanism used to manage the knowledge and to provide appropriate answer to the user. in this paper, we compare the performance of the proposed system against two popular search engines, two question answering systems and two other conversational systems. traditional media such as television, radio, newspapers and magazines play an important role in reporting and providing the latest information on current events. however, nearly all of these media are linear and unidirectional in nature. in other words, they do not provide interactive communication nor can they answer any query from the users. most of these traditional means of media also do not link the answers to the source or reference of the information. hence, viewers or readers may require additional effort in locating or verifying the information. on the other hand, the internet, in particular, the world-wide-web (www), coupled with multimedia, browser and web service technologies, presents a powerful way of communication. if the system is designed properly, it could provide high level of interactivity between the users and the computer. this is clearly a major step in the advancement over the traditional means of communication. one of the possible applications of such system is to provide answers to queries on specific topics or knowledge domains. consider situations such as outbreak of diseases, natural disasters and terrorist attacks, they have caused much miseries, fear and confusion around the world. examples of such crisis are the severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars), bird flu, september 11, earthquakes and tsunamis. in such times, a lot of people will be eager to know as much information as possible. this is where the traditional media may be found inefficient as they are limited with constraints such as page number and air-time. they may also be unable to source all the information from around the world. in addition, people such as managers and decision-makers, frontline specialists or emergency services personnel, and concerned citizens who are directly or indirectly involved in the situations, require to be better informed of the situation and the development. to this end, the internet could have a major role to play as an essential communication channel in providing an intelligent interactive interface for the users. a form of a "global crisis communication system" could be used to provide a natural language query-and-answer system. this system should be capable of providing relevant responses to queries from the users in a conversational manner. in this paper, we describe part of a project which is currently under development. the aim of the project is to develop an intelligent conversation agent called aini to answer domain specific questions as well as open-domain (or common sense) questions. in this report, we have used the subject -bird flu as the domain knowledge of interest to demonstrate the feasibility of the developed system. the key contribution described in this paper is the integration of the common sense knowledge and domain specific knowledge in the form of a "knowledge matrix." the system is based on a layered and modular design, and the answers for the queries are searched from these modules. the proposed system is based on an intelligent conversation agent called aini and an akea. the objective of akea is to retrieve real world knowledge or information from trustworthy websites whereas aini is the mechanism used to manage the knowledge and to provide appropriate answer to the user. descriptions of the system are given in the subsequent sections. the prototype system is compared to two popular search engines -google and yahoo!, two question answering systems -start and askjeeves and two conversational systems -eliza and alice. while it is understood that the purpose of those systems are different, the objective of the comparison is to demonstrate the need of the proposed system described in this paper. this also shows that the proposed system is capable to provide appropriate answers by integrating open domain and domain specific knowledge into one conversation agent architecture. §2 aini's conversational agent architecture the aini architecture is shown in fig.1 . the architecture has been reported in previous publications by the authors. 19, 20) basically, the aini engine comprises a number of knowledge modules in the data layer. it has the ability to communicate with three layers: the application layer, the data layer and the client layer. the client layer is capable to communicate with the user via different channels such as web browser, mobile browser, wap browser and gsm interface. it can carry on multiple independent conversations at the same time. aini's knowledge bases are located within the data layer. there are a number of modules supporting the application layer which governs the manipulation and searching of the answers. the modules use plug-in principles that can quickly be augmented with domain knowledge for specific purposes. originally, this research project involves the establishment of an embodied conversational agent (eca) based on an aini architecture. 20) the prototype system is designed specifically for the web and mobile technology as shown in the client layer in figure 1 . the complete software agent can be considered as a multi-domain knowledge system with multimodal human-computer communication interface. the query and answer between the user and the computer are communicated via the common protocol tcp/ip. aini is designed to engage the user with focus on the chosen subject topic. in this particular application, the topic is on the possible pandemic virus, h5n1. aini communicates with the user in natural language via typed messages. the system is also capable to reply in text-prompts or text-to-speech synthesis together with appropriate facial-expressions on the displayed object which can be an animated avatar or a human face. as illustrated in fig.1 , aini employs an internet three-tier, thin-client architecture that may be configured to work with any web application. it comprises a client layer, an application layer and a data server layer. the hybrid architecture provides features of multimodal interface (client layer), multilevel natural language query (application layer) and multiple knowledge bases (data layer). the process of communication and answering is as follows. given a question, aini first performs a question analysis by extracting pertinent information to be used in query formulation, such as the noun phrases (nps) and verb phrases (vps) using the minipar parser. 26) minipar is a broad-coverage parser for the english language. an evaluation with the susanne corpus shows that minipar achieves about 88% precision and 80% recall with respect to dependency relationships. in our experiment by using corpus extracted by automated knowledge extraction agent (akea), 18) minipar parser is capable to parses nearly 500 words per second on a dell precision pws380 server 3gh with 1gb memory. the user interface resides in the thin-client layer and it supports webbased and mobile service interface. for the web-based interface, the system is based on multimodal agent markup language (maml) interpreter in order to handle the user interface. maml is a prototype multimodal markup language based on xml that enables animated presentation agents or avatars. it involves a virtual lifelike talking 3d agent character designed to carry out a more natural conversation with the user. for mobile devices, due to their small screens, there are limitations on the amount of information that can be presented at one time. reading large amounts of information from such devices can require excessive amount of scrolling and concentration. to reduce distraction, interactions, and potential information overload, a better way of presenting information might be through multilevel or hierarchical mechanisms. 9) a chat mode interface will suit the multilevel mechanism nicely and this will be a better solution for mobile service. in addition, current wireless network service vendors are now providing a wide bandwidth telephone network, known as 3g communication. 23) this development has led to the increasing adoption of smartphone as a client in the traditional distributed systems. on such system, the proposed system will require the mobile flash player. 2) for wap services, the application was embedded wap browsers from vendors such as openwave * 1 and nokia. * 2 all communication with aini takes place through typed text messages and they are processed based on natural language understanding and reasoning. aini's engine implements its decision making network based on the information it encounters in the six levels of knowledge modules. the input and output of each module is an xml-encoded data structure that keeps track of the current computational state. the knowledge modules can be considered as transformations over this xml data structure. the system accepts questions or queries from the users and it processes the queries based on the information contained in aini's knowledge bases. the system is implemented by open-source architecture employing a kannel mobile gateway, php, perl scripting language, apache server and knowledge base stored in a mysql server. in this server, it handles the process of the queries. here, one or more application servers are configured to compute the dialogue logic through the multilevel natural language query algorithm. in this layer, it is based on a goal-driven or top-down natural language query (nl-query) approach which is similar to the way that humans process their language. as indicated by literature in the field of natural language processing (nlp), the top-down approach is by far the best approach. as shown in fig. 1 , the top-down nl-query approach consists of six levels of queries, namely spell checker (level 0), natural language understanding and reasoning (nlur) (level 1), faqchat (level 2), metadata index search (level 3), pattern matching and case-based reasoning (pmcbr) (level 4) and supervised learning (level 5). all these have been discussed in reference. 17) the data layer serves as storage for data and knowledge required by the system. this is where the aini bot's conversational knowledge bases are stored. in the proposed approach, the architecture can be considered as a domain matrix knowledge model 16) for the support of the conversational system. it is well understood that true intelligent action requires large quantities of knowledge. such reservoir of knowledge is harvested from the internet and deployed in the domain matrix knowledge bases architecture. this form the basis for the construction of large-scale knowledge bases to be used as the engine for the intelligent conversation systems. these databases established so far are dictionary, domain-specific knowledge bases, open domain knowledge bases and chatlog (conversation logs and unanswered question logs). as mentioned previously, the first step taken by aini is to perform a spell check to eliminate possible wrong spellings. the spell checker is located at the application layer and the dictionary contains the database of words. the spell checker used in this study is called ispell. ispell is an open-source program that is used to correct spelling and typographical errors in a file. ispell was first run on tops-20 systems at the mit-ai lab. many people have contributed dictionaries to allow ispell to be used with their native languages. at least 50 dictionaries have already been established. as far as this project is concerned, only english is used. however, it can be anticipated that aini has the potential to be used as a true intelligent web interaction with users who are using different languages. combining the dictionary and the spell checker in the application layer, this combination can be considered as the level 0 knowledge. in terms of the domain-specific knowledge databases, it can be observed in fig. 1 that the domain specific knowledge modules are made up of a natural language corpus and a faq (frequent asked questions) module. the natural language understanding & reasoning (nlur) module in the application layer is used to gather data to be stored in the natural language corpus. in addition, the akea is used to extract information from the web and in particular trusted web sites. the architecture of akea has been reported previously and the details can be found in reference. 18) a description of its operation will also be given in the subsequent section. this forms the level 1 knowledge. the faq (frequent asked questions) module is connected to the faqchat module in the application layer. it is used to provide information based on the faq sections from websites and from the actual chat logs. in other words, the conversations and answers given by the user to the system are also used to enhance the information in the faq module. this forms the level 2 knowledge. in this study, the bulk of the information was collected during the height of the sars epidemic in 2003 19) and the bird flu pandemic crisis in 2005. 21) however, in this paper, the domain specific knowledge is only focused on bird flu. the open-domain knowledge modules in the data layer are based on trec corpus, minipixel and the open-domain knowledge base (aaa). they are further supported by the conversation logs which store the previous conversation for extraction of answers from the unanswered questions. it is assumed that such answers could be used in future interaction with the users. details of these open-domain knowledge modules are described in the section 3.1 and they form the subsequent levels of knowledge in the application layer. §3 domain knowledge matrix model in this paper, bird flu pandemic is the domain-specific knowledge used as an example to illustrate the application of this proposal. research and information on h5n1 pandemic have become increasingly important as the pandemic may have dire global implications. wall street journal online 7) predicted that this pandemic could be worse than the one in 1918 which killed at least 20 million people. in addition, the world health organization estimates the h5n1 virus could infect up to 30 percent of the world's population. shigeru omi, a who official, also warned that an estimation of 2 to 7 million deaths are "conservative" and that the maximum figure could be as high as 50 million. 29) the aini's domain knowledge matrix model incorporates several knowledge subjects. this is analogous to the consultation of expertise knowledge from multiple experts. for example, a sales domain knowledge should contain expertise or knowledge on how to improve sales. however, as a sales person, he or she is expected to have a wide range of common sense knowledge and the ability to engage the potential customer. hence, the intelligent system should also incorporate open-domain knowledge to handle general or generic questions. in here, the open-domain knowledge is not necessary the common sense knowledge which is assumed to be possessed by everyone. the open-domain refers to the accessibility of the knowledge. hence, they are still categorized according to knowledge domain. by including multiple domain knowledge bases with aini's single domain knowledge, the proposed aini will be able to hold "meaningful" conversations with the users. in this proposed system, the open-domain and domain-specific knowledge are pre-defined in the data layer. these modules are used to support the various knowledge levels at the application layer. depending on the user's input, the agent will respond or switch from one level to another. while the system is capable to communicate with the user beyond the domain knowledge, there are cases that the system will exhaust its capability to answer the queries. in such case, the system will attempt to divert the focus back to the current topic of interest by responding with some predefined random statements. the purpose is to direct the users' back to the system's domain-specific state. hence aini will attempt to "cycle" between the 6 levels of information processing within the application layer supported by the various knowledge modules in the data layer. a way to view the proposed domain knowledge matrix model is given in fig. 2 . in this approach, the knowledge base of the aini can be considered as a collection of specific conversation domain units. each unit handles a specific body of knowledge used during the conversation between aini and the user. the knowledge can be seen as arranged in the vertical columns making up the open domain or domain-specific knowledge. in addition, specific subjects are shown in the horizontal rows. for example, in the open domain knowledge, the subject units will cover topics such as personality, business, biology, computer, etc. in this report, our focus is on the medical subject and in particular, the bird flu pandemic, therefore there are additional modules being incorporated. the domain knowledge model plays a major role in conversational systems. such systems normally are comprised with two subcategories: the traditional or narrow domain, and, the open domain. in the traditional domain, systems attempt conversational fluency based on limited domains of expertise. eliza 34) for example simulates a rogerian psychotherapist, and this implementation is commonly known as doctor. the rogerian psychotherapist knowledge base attempts to engage the patient by repeating the patient's statements, and by encouraging the patient to continue talking. terry winograd's shrdlu 37) is another program simulating a robot which is able to interact within a simple world which consists of colored building blocks and boxes on a flat surface. shrdlu has knowledge about its world and it can answer questions in natural language. three decades have passed since eliza was created. computers have it is assumed that the human brain contains a world of knowledge, but it has limitations on memory retrieval. hence, knowledge needs to be specified. in the proposed system, the domain knowledge matrix model is designed along this line. the system uses custom domain-oriented knowledge bases and existing knowledge bases from online documents and training corpora. it contains a spectrum of possible solutions from queries on specific domains to general conversation questions. it can also be considered as a xml-like metadata model. this approach does not attempt to predict possible inputs from the user. instead, the system aims to handle conversations within a specified domain or focus on 'domain-specific' conversations. in this project, the novel contribution is the development of the "domain knowledge plug-in components." with this arrangement, the domain-specific knowledge could become portable, scalable and incorporated easily with other applications. this approach will allow future improvements to encourage collaborative contribution to the specific knowledge domain. the proposed system will enable the development of a wide range of information sources. open-domain conversational systems need to deal with questions about nearly any topic. it is very difficult to rely on ontological information due to the absence of wide and yet detailed banks of world knowledge. on the other hand, these systems have much more information and data to be used in the process of answering the queries then any domain specific systems. in aini's conversation system, information from the large-scale mass collaboration mindpixel 30) and training data sets from the text retrieval conference's (trec) training corpus 32) are used. aini also uses alice annotated aiml (aaa), 5) the loebner prize winner 28) and the chatterbox challenge winner 10) hand crafted knowledge bases. these are illustrated in the data layer in figure 1 and under the open-domain columns in fig. 2 . mindpixel is a common sense knowledge component and it is similar to openmind * 3 and cyc. * 4 the system accepts public contributions. however, cyc model and openmind had bottlenecks which prevent truly large-scale collaboration 33) . the first is the fact that knowledge does not grow by itself. every new rule or axiom has to be entered manually and the process takes a lot of patience and time. furthermore, information has to be input with the cycl programming language and to follow the rules of the system. the second drawback is the complexity of cyc. it will need months to install and implement a system that is based on the knowledge base of cyc. on the other hand, mindpixel started collecting their propositions privately via email in 1994 and then evolved to online mass collaboration. to date, the project's user base of nearly fifty thousand people has contributed more than one million propositions and recorded almost ten million individual propositional response measurements. ainis use only 10% of the mindpixel propositions. in practice, 10% of the training corpus is held back from training to act as a generalization test to ensure the system does not simply memorize the corpus. passing this generalization test would be the basis for claiming that the system is able to replicate human-level intelligence in a machine. although a lot of knowledge has been collected, it is recognized that the system is still less than the uncountable "pieces" of common sense knowledge that are estimated to be involved with human intelligence. 31) a second common sense knowledge component deployed by aini is a training corpus from trec as shown in table 1 . trec, organized each year by the national institute of standards and technology (nist), has offered a specific track to evaluate large-scale open domain question-answering (qa) systems since 1999. finding textual answers to open domain questions in large text collections is a difficult problem. in our system, we only extracted factoid questions to be incorporated in the aini's engine. our concern is the types of questions that could be answered in more than one way. we have tried to avoid such questions. in conversational systems, factoid questions should have only single factual answers. 3, 12, 13, 36) these are considered as a good stimulus-response type of knowledge unit. examples of such questions are, "who is the author of the book, the iron lady: a biography's of margaret thatcher? " "what was the name of the first russian astronaut to do a spacewalk? " or "when was the telegraph invented? " trec's corpus has a considerably lower rate of answer redundancy than the web and thus, it is easier to answer a question by simply extracting the answers from the matching text. to gather this data, we automatically classified questions in the trec 8 through trec 10 test sets by their 'wh'-word and then manually distinguished factoid questions, which represented * 3 www.openmind.org * 4 www.cyc.com around half of the initial corpus as shown in table 1 . the third knowledge base in the aini's open domain knowledge model is obtained from hand-crafted annotated alice aiml (aaa), * 5 a loebner prize winning 28) conversation system knowledge base. aaa is a free and opensource software package based on xml specifications. it is a set of artificial intelligence markup language (aiml) scripts and this is the backbone of the award winning conversation system. aaa is specifically reorganized to facilitate conversational system developers to clone the 'brain' of the conversation system and to enable the creation of customized conversation agent personalities. the approach has reduced the need to invest huge efforts in editing the original aaa content. aaa's knowledge bases covered a wide range of subject domains based on the conversation agent's "personality." example subjects include ai, games, emotion, economics, film, books, sport, science, epistemology and metaphysics. these subjects are shown in fig.2 as part of the domain knowledge matrix model. in order to illustrate the ability of alice in handling common sense or open domain queries, alice has won the 2000, 2001 and 2004 loebner prize for being the most lifelike machine. the competition is based on the turing test 1) which aims to determine whether the responses from a computer can convince a human into thinking that the computer is a real person. in the competition, alice used a library of over 30,000 stimulus-response pairs written in aiml to answer the queries. the development of alice is based on the fact that the distribution of the sentences in conversations tends to follow zipf's law. 25) it is indicated that the number of "first words" is only limited to about two thousand. the frequency of any word is roughly inversely proportional to its rank in the frequency table. the most frequently used word will occur approximately twice as often as the second most frequent word. it in turn occurs twice as often as the third most frequent word, and so forth. questions starting with "what is" tend to have zipf-like distributions. this type of analysis can now be accomplished in a few milliseconds of computer time. while the possibilities * 5 www.alicebot.org/aiml/aaa/ of what can be said are infinite, the range of what is actually said in conversation in most cases is surprisingly small. specifically, 1800 words cover 95% of all the first words input. it is this principle that aini is operating on which enables it to be able to respond in an efficient and mostly accurate manner. at present, the world-wide web provides a distributed hypermedia interface to a vast amount of information available online. for instance, google 14) currently has a training corpus of more than one trillion words (1,024,908,267,229) from public web pages. this is valuable for many types of research. the web is a potentially unlimited source of knowledge repository; however, commercial search engines may not be the best way to gather answers from queries due to the overwhelming number of results from a search. before the rise of domain-oriented conversational systems using on natural language understanding and reasoning, evaluation was never a problem, as information retrieval-based metrics were readily available for use. however, when conversation systems begin to become more domain specific, evaluation becomes a real issue. 15) this is especially true when natural language processing (nlp) is required to cater for a wider variety of questions and, at the same time, required to achieve high quality responses. as shown in fig. 1 and 2 , aini's domain-specific knowledge bases consist of natural language corpus and frequently asked questions (faq). both components are extracted from the online documents using the akea as described in reference. 18) another significant aspect of this paper is the objective of aini to deliver essential information from trusted sources while capable of interacting with the users. a discussion on the selection of the trusted websites is given below. as the web that we know today becomes increasingly chaotic, overpowering and untrustworthy, selection of trusted web pages is becoming an important factor contributing to its long-term survival as a useful global information repository. in our experiment, the selection of the trusted websites is based on pagerank tm . 8) pagerank tm is a system for ranking web pages developed by larry page and sergey brin at stanford university. pagerank tm relies on the uniquely democratic nature of the web by using its vast link structure as an indicator of an individual page's value and high-quality sites always receive a higher pagerank tm . in our study, the selection of trustworthy websites started with the initial six seed words: bird, flu, avian, influenza, pandemic and h5n 1. these seeds are supposed to be representative of the domain under investigation. the seed terms are randomly combined and each combination is used in google api * 6 and bootcat tool 6) for bootstrapping corpora and terms from the web. we used the seeds to perform a set of google searches, asking google to return a maximum of 20 urls per query and then we collected the corpus. after visual inspection of the corpus, we used the top 40 seeds extracted from token frequencies for the second run. finally, we retrieved 1,428 urls out of 1,500 urls related to the domain being investigated. the reduction in number is due to the duplicated and broken link urls being removed. based on the 1,428 urls, we sent a query to google's pagerank tm directory using parameter tool 11) to determine their rankings. figure 3 shows the results of the top 10 site based on the pagerank tm scale. the pagerank tm scale goes from 1 to 10. a less important site is the one with a pagerank (pr) of 1. the most referenced and supposedly important sites are those with a pr of between 7 and 10. the final set of urls was further culled to include only selected sites which are attributed to a regulated authority (such as a governmental or educational institution) that controls the content of the sites. once the seed set is determined, each url's page is further examined and rated as either reliable or reputable. this selection is reviewed, rated and tested for connectivity with the trusted seed pages. from this exercise, whitehouse.gov, pandemicflu.org, cdc.gov and who.int were selected due to their pagerank tm scale scores being above 7. the most important factors in determining the "reliable authority" of a site is based on its history and the number of back-links to the governmental and international organization links. the more established and relevantly linked the more it will be considered as "stronger" or "more reliable." this effectively gives the linked site a measure of "trust" and "credential." the selected urls are then used as the source knowledge base for akea to extract the contents on bird flu so as to build aini's domain-specific knowledge base. a discussion of the extracted information is given in the following section. in aini's domain knowledge matrix model, the unit domains in the natural language corpus component consist of knowledge and information harvested from or expressed in ontologies, gazetteers, named entities and wordnet. these have been implemented as domain-dependent modular components. the named entity module identifies named locations, named persons, named organization, dates, times and key measures in text formats. the information is obtained by akea. for example, information for diseases is based on symptoms, causes, diagnoses, vaccination locations, persons and organizations. in order to identify these entities, our system uses rules to specify the named entities' structure in terms of text tokens and information from the source such as tagger, morphosyntactic analyzer and knowledge bases of names, clue words and abbreviations. the web knowledge base is then continuously updated with facts extracted from online pandemic news using information extraction (ie) by akea. ie is the task of extracting relevant fragments of text from larger documents and to allow the fragments to be processed further in an automated manner. an example of an application of akea is to prepare an answer for a user's query. the ontology and gazetteer have been implemented as domain-dependent modular components which will allow future improvements in the domain knowledge. in aini's faq component, the unit domain consists of information concerning diseases, symptoms, causes, diagnoses, vaccinations, etc. the selection of faq trusted web pages has been carried out using pagerank tm as discussed above. but at this stage, each of the selected websites was evaluated in order to find the more suitable and reliable faq pages. from this experiment, the answers.pandemicflu.gov and who.int/csr/disease/avian influenza/avian faq pages have been selected as the source of information for akea to build aini's faq knowledge base. based on the proposed approach, the quality of the results returned from aini's engine using the faq knowledge base are either similar to or better than those generated by search engines such as google. aini's sql engine uses the most significant words as keywords or phrase. it attempts to find the longest pattern to match without using any linguistic tools or nlp analysis. in this component, aini does not need a linguistic knowledge unit and relies on just an sql query. all questions and answers can be extracted from the database which was built by akea after applying a filtering process to remove unnecessary tags. example results from the system are illustrated in the next section. table 2 , aini's open domain knowledge base currently has more than 150,000 entries in the common sense stimulus-response categories. out of these, 100,000 came from mindpixel, 997 factoid questions from the trec training corpus and 45,318 categories from aaa knowledge bases. on the domain-specific knowledge base, aini has more then 1,000 online documents extracted by akea. this makes up 10,000 stimulus-response items in total. aini also has 158 faq pairs of questions and answers which have been updated using akea. in addition, aini has also collected more than 382,623 utterances in conversations with online users since 2005. these utterances will be integrated into aini's knowledge bases through supervised learning by domain experts. at present, aini has learnt 50,000 categories from conversations with online users. all of this combined knowledge has made up the total of 206,473 stimulus response categories in aini's knowledge bases. in comparison to other system, the original conversational programs such as eliza, 35) written by professor joseph weizenbaum of mit, have only 200 stimulus response categories. alice silver edition was ranked the "most human" computer, and has about 120,000 categories which include 80,000 taken from mindpixel. in this experiment, three types of systems are compared. they are search engine, question answering system and conversational system. for each system, we compared two different engines against aini. the two search engines compared are google and yahoo. for the question answering engines, askjeeves and start are used. they are supposed to use natural language processing for their queries. for the conversational engines, eliza and alice are selected. in particular, alice was ranked as the "most human computer" in the turing test competition. 28) google is a well known search engine which determines relevancy of information primarily on their pagerank algorithm. 24) in our experiment, we developed a search engine interface using google soap search api service 22) and yahoo!. 38) for the question answering system, the idea behind ask jeeves and start is to allow users to get answers for questions posed in natural language. ask jeeves is the first commercially question answering system available on the internet. start 27) is the world's first web-based question answering system which commenced operation since december, 1993. eliza is a well known program in the discipline of artificial intelligence and it is also the oldest system in a way, aini can also be considered as an enhancement of alice with the inclusion of the pandemic domain-specific knowledge base which was extracted by akea, and it also has parsing capabilities based on a full natural language understanding engine for multilevel natural language query. 17) in the present study, appropriate or accurate domain responses are expected to be important. the control question set was submitted to the seven urls where the seven systems were located. the responses of the queries are then collected and displayed as shown in fig. 4 in the course of the present study, a question was raised on how to compare the performance of the proposed system. it was decided that the performance of the system would be based on the keywords instead of complex phrases. for example, if the question "what is bird flu?" is asked, responses from the search engines, question-answering engines and conversational engines are summarized in table 3 , 4 and 5 respectively. the responses are noted as follows: • search engines -the systems identify the key words and return documents that are relevant to the query. the results could be tens of thousand or even millions of hits as shown in table 3 . • natural language question-answering systems -they generate responses using nlp and return fewer possible answers. the answer is table 3 responses from popular search engines -google and yahoo table 4 responses from popular question answering engines table 5 respohnses from conversational engines possibly within the context of the document. the sample response is shown in table 4 . • conversation engines -provide quick response from the stimulus. simple pattern matching and substitution are used based on a surprisingly small number of pre-defined rules. the example is shown in table 5 . §6 discussion in this example, eliza responded with "does that question interest you? " it is observed that eliza tries to ask another question, instead of giving an answer. the objective is to encourage the user to continue with the conversation. on the other hand, alice attempts to convince the user by generating randomly answer from aiml knowledge base. alice's response does not need a grammatical parser as her knowledge base contains the pattern "what is bird flu?" and the witty reply is "xfind *" with an aiml categories. by using "xfind *" pattern, alice will randomly generated responses such as "is there only one," "let me think about it," "have you tried a web search," "i haven't heard of bird flu," etc. the pattern matching language used in alice permits only one wild-card ('*') match character per pattern. therefore, al-ice responds with a variety of inputs from the users. alice does not concern whether it really "understands" the input. it aims to provide a coherent response to the client in order to convey the impression that the system understands the client's intention. for the eliza and alice systems, they are not able to handle questions that demand specific answers. they are simply not designed for such purpose. the three possible ways to handle these types of questions are: (a) analyze the problems with nlp and then provide an appropriate answer, (b) rely on human to review the conversation logs and continually improves the knowledge base, or, (c) treat the query as impossible and then choose a pre-defined random answer. for the aini chatterbot, the response was "avian influenza, or "bird flu," is a contagious disease of animals caused by viruses. . . ". the answer was generated from the domain-specific knowledge base using natural language understanding parsing from level 1. in this query, the answers were discovered by aini from the trusted sites such as who. in addition, the response is based on the natural language understanding and reasoning. the reasoning mechanism of the aini is based on answer discovery in layer-oriented knowledge base. currently ongoing work includes quantitative measurement and assessment of the results and performance of these different systems. although the systems used in this study were built with different objectives in mind, the purpose of this study is to show that there is a need of the proposed system to handle domain specific applications. at the same time, this study also shown that the proposed conversation agent architecture can achieve the expected objectives. §7 conclusion in this paper, we have reported the use of an aini conversation agent architecture to develop a domain specific intelligent web interaction. aini consists of a knowledge acquisition tool called akea for the gathering of conversation and domain-related knowledge. the proposed system has the potential to be used in a domain specific application area. the study has demonstrated with one particular area of domain expertise -bird flu. in this paper, we only worked on selected pandemic crisis websites where we performed knowledge extraction through akea for the domain-specific knowledge databases on the server. it is believed that the approach would be useful and applicable for other domains. we have also compared and tested the flexibility of aini against other popular search engines, question answering systems and conversation systems. furthermore, we have found that domain-specific knowledge base has higher response than the corresponding conversational-style responses. further work will be done on expanding the sources of knowledge and to provide quantitative measurements of the quality of responses from the aini. computing machinery and intelligence mobile and devices analysis of factoid questions for effective relation extraction artificial linguistic internet computer entity the annotated a.l.i.c.e. aiml bootcat: bootstrapping corpora and terms from the web just how deadly is bird flu? it depends on whom you ask inside pagerank overcoming the lack of screen spaces on mobile computers alice winner of chatterbox challenge the effect of document retrieval quality on factoid question-answering performance factoid question answering over unstructured and structured web content all our n-gram are belong to you a black-box approach for response quality evaluation conversational agent system domain matrix knowledge model for embodied conversation agents top-down natural language query approach for embodied conversational agent automated knowledge extraction from internet for a crisis communication portal domain knowledge model for embodied conversation agent intelligent agents for an internet-based global crisis communication system embodied conversational agents for h5n1 pandemic crisis google soap search api (beta) 3gsm statistics google and yahoo search engine technology comparison zipf's law dependency-based evaluation of minipar building a reusable test collection for question answering loebner prize is asian bird flu the next pandemic? common sense in humans text retrieval conference (trec) building large knowledge bases by mass collaboration computer power and human reason eliza -a computer program for the study of natural language communication between man and machine monolingual web-based factoid question answering in chinese, swedish, english and japanese understanding natural language he was associate professor of faculty of information technology and communication, university technical malaysia melaka. his research interest is in the development of intelligent agent and conversational agents to facilitate graceful human-computer interactions. he is a member of ieee we would like to thank the anonymous referees for the constructive and helpful suggestions. this research project is funded by murdoch university research excellence grant scheme (regs), 2006. key: cord-302848-a246wl7f authors: lawler, j. j.; spencer, b.; olden, j. d.; kim, s.-h.; lowe, c.; bolton, s.; beamon, b. m.; thompson, l.; voss, j. g. title: 4.25 mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce climate vulnerabilities and maintain ecosystem services date: 2013-12-31 journal: climate vulnerability doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-384703-4.00436-6 sha: doc_id: 302848 cord_uid: a246wl7f abstract increasing temperatures and altered precipitation regimes associated with human-caused changes in the earth s climate are having substantial impacts on ecological systems and human well-being. maintaining functioning ecosystems, the provision of ecosystem services, and healthy human populations into the future will require integrating adaptation and mitigation strategies. adaptation strategies are actions that help human and natural systems accommodate changes. mitigation strategies are actions that reduce anthropogenic influences on climate. here, we provide an overview of what will likely be some of the most effective and most important mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing climate change. in addition to describing the ways in which these strategies can address impacts to natural and human systems, we discuss the social considerations that we believe must be incorporated into the development and application of mitigation or adaptation strategies to address political situations, cultural differences, and economic limitations. adaptation adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation (ipcc 2001) . climate change a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. we focus largely on changes in temperature and precipitation, as they are changing in many regions and have direct impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. mitigation actions that reduce the effects of humans on the climate. resilience amount of change a system can undergo without changing state (ipcc 2001) . sensitivity it is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. the effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range, or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sealevel rise) (ipcc 2001) . vulnerability the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (ipcc 2001) . virtually all regions of the earth are experiencing rapid changes in temperature, precipitation, and/or other aspects of climate. human-caused changes in the earth's climate are greatly altering ecological systems, with consequences for human well-being. for example, recent studies have documented shifts in the distribution of plants and animals, advances in the timing of key ecological processes, and extinctions of wildlife populations and species that are likely linked to recent increases in temperature (parmesan 2006) . such changes are creating regional combinations of environmental conditions that, within the next 50-100 years, may have no current-day analog. the resulting changes in ecosystem function will undoubtedly affect the provision of ecosystem services for human communities. maintaining or increasing ecosystem services into the future will require integrating adaptation strategies (actions that help human and natural systems accommodate changes) and mitigation strategies (actions that reduce anthropogenic influences on climate) ( figure 1 ). mitigation strategies are those that reduce the magnitude of climate change that will occur. the vast majority of these strategies involve either reducing greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions or sequestering carbon, although they can address any human climate forcing. by contrast, adaptation can be defined as alterations to human or natural systems that are designed to reduce the negative impacts ofor exploit the opportunities created byclimate change (ipcc 2007a) . adaptation strategies are much more varied than mitigation strategies, as they are more often specific to particular systems or locations. mitigation and adaptation strategies designed to address changes in climate may have additional positive or negative effects on ecosystem functioning, ecosystem services, and human well-being. for example, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources reduces ghg emissions while simultaneously reducing air pollution, acid rain, and smog, as well as asthma and respiratory ailments of humans. conversely, coastal armoring, the building of seawalls, breakwaters, and jetties, may reduce damage to built structures from the combined effects of sea-level rise and storm surges but such actions can negatively affect coastal ecosystems. in this chapter, we provide an overview of what will likely be some of the most effective and most important mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing changes to the climate system stemming from increased ghg emissions. we attempt to cover the entire spectrum of life, from plants and animals to humans, as well as the geophysical properties of our planet that support these organisms. in relation to human populations, we focus primarily on human health as an index of well-being. we also introduce concepts of climate justice. many of our examples are taken from the united states, although we also include other regions of the world in our analysis as appropriate. we discuss various ways in which mitigation and adaptation strategies can help reduce the magnitude and the impacts of the changes we are likely to experience, as well as improve human health and directly or indirectly affect ecosystem functions and services. finally, although our analysis sets priorities and orders of importance for an ideal world unimpeded by political considerations, cultural differences, or economic limitations, we include a discussion of the social considerations that we believe must be incorporated into the development and application of mitigation or adaptation strategies. in the following sections, we briefly discuss what will likely be some of the most effective mitigation strategies for addressing climate change, largely focusing on strategies to reduce co 2 and other ghg emissions ( table 1) . we have grouped these strategies into five categories: transportation, shelter, food, energy, and carbon storage and bioengineering. although we focus on mitigation strategies that will reduce the magnitude of future climatic changes, we also discuss how these strategies can improve ecosystem functioning and, in some cases, human health. transportation, the movement of people and goods, significantly impacts climate through the emission of ghgs. in 2004, transportation accounted for 23% of the world's energy-related ghg emissions and road transportation represented 74% of the total carbon dioxide (co 2 ) emissions from transportation (ipcc 2007b) . in addition to being a major source of emissions, transportation also significantly affects ecosystem functions and services. pollution from vehicles affects ecosystem services such as clean air and water directly, and indirectly through impacts on the plants and animals that regulate ecosystem function. as species are lost from or move into ecosystems the functioning of those systems can change, resulting in altered ecosystem services. human health is likewise affected by pollution from vehicles (e.g., through chronic lung disease). transportation networks and moving vehicles also fragment landscapes, reducing the flows of energy and biota resulting in isolated populations and potentially making these populations vulnerable to extirpation and impairing ecosystem functions. mitigation strategies that address transportation can be placed into three basic categories: those that increase the efficiency of particular transportation approaches, those that result in a shift in the mode of transportation, and those that reduce the amount of transportation that is needed. here, we briefly table 1 examples of mitigation strategies aimed at reducing ghg emissions or, in the case of the last category, sequestering carbon to reduce co 2 concentrations in the atmosphere mitigation strategies barriers to implementation a large reduction in ghg emissions can be accomplished by increasing the fuel efficiency of vehicles. for example, increasing the efficiency of light-duty vehicles (cars and small trucks) has the potential to reduce their carbon emissions by up to 50% by 2030 (ipcc 2007b) . such efficiencies can be attained by a combination of reducing vehicle weights, increasing aerodynamics, increasing engine efficiency (particularly diesel engine efficiency), and increasing the use of biofuels and electric and hybrid vehicles. in 2006, the international energy association projected that the proportion of transportation energy supplied by biofuels could be increased to 10% (iea 2006a) . although there is good evidence of successful biofuel markets and programs (e.g., ethanol from sugarcane in brazil, goldemberg 2007) , there are also negative consequences of increased biofuel production for biodiversity and carbon storage (fargione et al. 2008; fletcher et al. 2010) . one opportunity for transportation mitigation strategy is the promotion of behavioral changes of drivers. efficiency of road vehicles could be improved by 5-20% by changes in driving styles, improved maintenance, more efficient tires, reduced idling, and traffic design and maintenance (ipcc 2007b). a second approach to reducing emissions and many of the other effects of transportation involves changing the ways in which people and goods are moved. one such approach is to increase the use of public and human-powered transportation. increasing the amount of walking, biking, and use of public transit will depend largely on the available infrastructure and the capacity to provide it. supporting the development of 'walkable' cities and neighborhoods, bike-friendly roadways and bike paths, carpooling and car-sharing programs, and efficient and safe mass transit are all approaches for shifting the mode of urban transport. present transportation alternatives vary by country, with europe, japan, and many developing countries having the highest levels of public transportation use, and the united states having the greatest use of personal automobiles. in some developing countries, such as vietnam or china, personal automobile use is a recent phenomenon, and personal motorized transport is a high aspiration because it conveys increased social status. this disparity in the historical development of the transportation sector will mean that mitigation strategies, barriers, and solutions will have to be location specific and may be dynamic over time. in addition to the reduction in emissions and the other environmental benefits of shifts to more human-powered transportation, such changes also have clear human health benefits resulting from increased exercise, weight management, and decreases in air pollution (nemet et al. 2010) . simultaneously improving the quality of public transport and leapfrogging transport-intensive stages of economic growth is needed in many countries to increase higher levels of mass transit use and human-powered transportation (wright and fulton 2005) . further reductions in emissions can be made by changing modes of transport for other transportation such as moving more freight by train and ship and less by truck. the third way to reduce transportation-related ghg emissions is to reduce the amount of transportation that is needed. decreasing the demand for transportation largely involves changes in human behavior, urban and landscape planning, and changes in technology. sprawling, low-density urban neighborhoods, such as those found in the united states, perpetuate automobile dependency and transform ecologically functional landscapes into subdivisions. compact, highdensity communities with local urban centers allow residents to work and live in close proximity, and help build social capital among residents and protect natural areas. in conjunction with human-centered transportation infrastructure such as sidewalks, bike lanes, and public transportation, compact neighborhoods reduce car dependency while simultaneously improving the physical fitness of residents. public green space and urban forests sequester carbon while improving air quality and mental well-being. increased vegetation, shade trees, and less asphalt combat urban heat-island effects and reduce energy demand for cooling buildings. advances in communication technologies also have the potential to reduce the need for transportation. the internet, online meeting, document sharing, and conference tools have led to an increase in telecommuting and web-based meetings. similarly, online meetings have begun to replace some inperson meetings and have the potential to dramatically reduce air travel, which can account for a significant portion of an individual's carbon footprint (fox et al. 2009 ). the most significant barriers to implementing mitigation strategies in the transportation sector are long-established personal transportation behaviors and the lack of government interest or capacity to invest in new technologies. changing the way and the amount that people move around will be very difficult. in the united states and elsewhere, people's relationships with the automobile involve issues of convenience, independence, safety, and social status. changing these relationships will involve making forms of public transportation more convenient, more effective, and more appealing. rising fuel costs and commute times may provide some opportunity for implementing transportation-based mitigation strategies. failing automobile industries and economic crises may provide another. similar to the projects undertaken by the civilian conservation corps in the united states in the depression of the 1930s, modern-day work relief programs could be used to transform transportation systems. short of such crises, major changes in transportation will take a combination of regulatory action, education, and incentive programs. housing is one of the most idiosyncratic and regionally variable aspects of human culture. the design of structures is dependent on local climate, land access, available materials, and regional architectural histories. much of the recent human-caused change in climate stems, in large part, from the way we design, construct, and inhabit the built environment. the following section focuses on a representative selection of design strategies that mitigate the built environment's contribution to carbon emissions and, in many cases, provide cobenefits to human health and local/regional ecological resilience. building material extraction can have profound impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services. mining degrades natural landscapes, destroys habitat, pollutes freshwater environments, and can expose human populations to toxins. poorly managed lumber extraction leads to deforestation, eliminates suitable habitats, erodes soils, and diminishes the earth's carbon sequestration capacity. mines that observe best management practices such as land reclamation have fewer negative impacts on climate, local ecosystems, and human health. sustainably harvested lumber can act as a long-term carbon sink and contribute to the productive and ecological resilience of forests. rapidly renewable lumber alternatives such as bamboo can offset the demand for slow-growing trees species, rebuild soils, and set the stage for reforestation. however, as with any renewable resource, expanding the production of bamboo in monocultures has the potential to eliminate and/or degrade existing ecosystems. eight percent of annual carbon emissions worldwide can be attributed to building material extraction, production, transportation, and installation (mazria and kerschner 2008) . choosing building materials with low embodied energy (the cumulative energy of extraction, production, transport, installation, and disposal) and/or that use alternative energy sources reduces the building sector's carbon footprint. locally sourced materials produce fewer carbon emissions than those transported long distances and both durable materials and those with recycled content help reduce demand for virgin materials. fully recyclable materials can be reprocessed and repurposed with low energy inputs indefinitely. removing toxic compounds from material production processes and building products facilitates the recycling or biodegradation of building components. it also helps prevent air and waterborne industrial pollution and associated human illness. in some cases, it may be possible to choose building materials that actually sequester more carbon than is emitted in their production. the production of portland cement, the most commonly used cement in construction, is a relatively large source of co 2 emissions. magnesium oxide-based cement is as strong as normal portland cement, but can be manufactured at low temperatures using renewable energy sources. magnesium oxide is an abundant mineral and is easily recyclable (smith 2005) . as it cures, it absorbs more co 2 than is released during its production, resulting in a net negative carbon budget. the average lifespan of buildings in the united states is less than 50 years (o'connor 2004) . design for adaptationdesign that easily accommodates changes in configuration and useextends the life of buildings and stems demand for new construction and virgin materials. when buildings are ultimately decommissioned, design for disassembly facilitates the breakdown and reuse of their constituent components. both design for adaptation and design for disassembly act upstream from recycling as part of a multicyclic system that repositions well-weathered buildings and building materials as resources rather than wastes, reducing carbon emissions in the process. building operations such as heating, cooling, and lighting account for 42% of electricity consumption in the united states (mazria and kerschner 2008) . passive design strategies can drastically reduce a building's dependence on carbon-intensive energy production. in cold climates, airtight, well-insulated building envelopes can work in tandem with building orientation, thermal mass, and passive solar radiation to provide thermal comfort and reduce heating bills. in hot climates, external shading, light colored/reflective roofs and walls, and passive ventilation strategies can reduce cooling loads. daylighting strategies such as light shelves and shallow floor plans bring natural light into interior spaces, reducing the demand for electrical lighting while, at the same time, contributing to the well-being and productivity of building occupants. similar to the use of building materials to sequester more carbon than they produce, buildings can generate more energy than they consume. buildings equipped with photovoltaics, wind turbines, and fuel cells are some of the energy producing technologies that make this possible. recent advances in computer-aided design software help designers address building performance issues early in the design process and optimize building design for energy use and production. improvements in digital monitoring and analysis allow occupants to scrutinize building performance and optimize energy use once buildings are operational. in the future, smart buildings and systems will likely respond dynamically to human occupation, weather, daily cycles, and seasonal change, further reducing their energy footprint. compact communities (discussed in the transportation section, above), land-use planning, and high-density zoning have the potential to reduce co 2 emissions, reduce sensible and latent heat fluxes, and improve human health and ecosystem function. centralized infrastructure and zoning laws that segregate industrial, commercial, agricultural, and residential land use can be beneficial to public health within localities. however, these practices also create a cognitive disconnect between human action and its environmental consequences. they facilitate the transfer of local environmental burdens to regional and global scales, contribute to climate change, and undermine the health of vulnerable populations. integrated land use and responsibly managed distributed ecological infrastructure have the potential to safeguard public health without the transference of environmental burdens. synthesizing commercial, industrial, agricultural, and residential precincts, reimagining landscape as infrastructure, and bringing utilities into the public realm raises awareness about the causal relationships that link human activities, environmental degradation, and human health. urban agriculture, for example, reduces dependence on carbonintensive industrial food production, minimizes the carbon footprint of food transport, teaches urbanites how to grow their own food, and provides nutrition to communities. carbon-conscious materials, regenerative buildings, compact communities, and integrated landscapes have the potential to mitigate the worst effects of climate change. their success will depend on the ability to implement them not only in developed countries but also in the burgeoning cites of the global south. we must adapt these strategies to diverse climates, contexts, and cultures and pursue them in tandem with issues of economic development and social equity. in modern history, land distribution and regulation have always been the prerogative of governments. for this reason, national, regional, and local governments have a large role to play in housing mitigation strategies. governments control land-use planning, zoning, and building-code regulations. the ability to act on the mitigation strategies identified above, therefore, is largely dependent upon the regulatory and enforcement environment in a region. in a democratic society, these will in turn be dependent upon the inclination and ability of the state to assume progressive and proactive attitudes toward mitigation. agriculture releases considerable amounts of ghgs into the atmosphere. in 2005, it accounted for 10-12% of the total global anthropogenic ghgs including approximately 60% of nitrous oxide (n 2 o) and 50% of methane (ch 4 ) of the anthropogenic totals (rosenzweig and tubiello 2007; smith et al. 2008; burney et al. 2010) . land-use change, nitrogenous fertilizer applications, livestock production, rice farming, and biomass burning are among the major direct sources of ghg emissions. indirect sources of ghgs from agriculture include the production and/or applications of fertilizers and pesticides, the operation of farm machinery, and the transportation of agricultural products (burney et al. 2010 ). there are multiple opportunities for mitigating climate change impacts through modifications in agricultural practices and food consumption. with respect to agricultural production, mitigation strategies include soil carbon sequestration and the reduction of ghg emissions through altered production methods. with respect to food consumption, society can mitigate the impacts of climate change through changes in diet and by reducing the amount of transportation needed to deliver food (e.g., increasing local food production). below, we discuss several of these mitigation strategies. the topic of increasing local food production is covered in previous sections on transportation and shelter. unlike housing, food is a sector that is potentially much more amenable to individual decision-making and personal choice. this will depend on the relative proportion of food in a household budget. while americans spend only 5% of their incomes on average on food, the figure for indonesia is 30%. this indicates that people from wealthy countries would have greater flexibility to support alternative and nonindustrial agriculture through consumer preferences than those from countries where food is a larger part of household budgets. agricultural and degraded soils can act as large carbon sinks with the potential to sequester 55-78 gt of carbon globally (lal 2004) . soil organic carbon (soc) is the major component (62%) of this large soil carbon pool (lal 2004) . soc accumulation is facilitated by adding biomass to the soil and minimizing soil disturbances. the increased soc improves the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the soil and in turn enhances crop productivity, water holding capacity, and land sustainability under a low-input cropping system. several agricultural practices facilitate accumulation and retention of soc in cropland soils, e.g., conservation tillage, mulches, cover crops, manuring, crop rotations, and agroforestry (lal 2004) . the benefits of these agricultural practices go beyond carbon sequestration. they have the potential to reduce erosion, limit positive feedbacks in drought cycles, and benefit human health. over the past 40 years, 30% of the world arable land has been taken out of production as a result of erosion (pimentel 2006) . conventional agricultural practices involving frequent tillage result in soil erosion, which in turn increases concentrations of airborne particulates. these particles can carry pathogens causing infectious diseases and can provide positive feedbacks to drought conditions. recent climate modeling has demonstrated a positive feedback in the 'dust bowl' drought of the 1930s in the united states (schubert et al. 2004; cook et al. 2009 ). cook et al. (2009) discovered that a reduction in vegetation cover and the addition of eroded soil dusts to the air resulted in a high temperature anomaly over the northern united states and intensified the drought. as a result of the dust bowl, more than 50% of the surveyed farms comprising 8.7 million acres were seriously eroded, and the economic loss was valued close to us$200 million (aaas 1936) . a combination of warming, drought, and conventional agricultural practices together have the potential to re-create the dust bowl of the 1930s in the great plains of the united states (rosenzweig and hillel 1993) . the livestock industry is a main contributor to three major climate-related problems associated with global food systems: ghg emissions, reactive nitrogen mobilization, and plant biomass appropriation (pelletier and tyedmers 2010) . increases in livestock production and meat consumption are also blamed for the evolution of new and virulent emergent diseases. any improvement in the environmental sustainability of livestock production will concurrently have a benefit for human health. pelletier and tyedmers (2010) estimated that globally the livestock sector contributed 14% of anthropogenic ghg emissions, 63% of reactive nitrogen mobilization, and consumed 58% of human-appropriated biomass as of 2000. reduction in ghg emissions in agriculture can be achieved by developing strategies involving improved production efficiency, land-use changes, cropland and rangeland management, and livestock and manure management (rosenzweig and tubiello 2007; smith et al. 2008; burney et al. 2010; pelletier and tyedmers 2010) . for example, enhancing production efficiency through agricultural intensification has been credited with the avoidance of 161 gt of carbon emission globally since 1961 (burney et al. 2010 ). this figure highlights that the investment in agricultural research to improve the environmental sustainability of global food production systems (i.e., livestock, crop, and aquatic systems) should be a prioritized mitigation strategy (lobell et al. 2008; burney et al. 2010; steinfeld and gerber 2010) . another mitigation strategy to reduce emissions involves shifting livestock production regimes from ruminants to more efficient and lower impact monogastric species (e.g., poultry), well-managed fisheries and aquaculture, and promoting plant-based protein sources (pelletier and tyedmers 2010; steinfeld and gerber 2010) . changing livestock production from ruminants to monogastric animals and reducing livestock production overall both require significant changes in diet in many parts of the world. this is, of course, where tradition and culture play an important role, yet it is not impossible to induce dietary changes. initiatives that reduce the consumption of meat could have dramatic effects on ghg emissions particularly in developed countries (mcmichael et al. 2007) . such policies would also reduce impacts on ecosystems and promote other ecosystem services such as a reduction in the clearing of amazonian rain forests, reduced nitrogen deposition, and a reduction in the application of high-phosphate fertilizers used to grow feed. reduced meat consumption could also improve human health in developed countries particularly when coupled with incentive structures and educational measures to replace high-fat, sugar-rich foods with more complex diets based on plant proteins. reduced red meat consumption will likely lower the risk of obesity, diabetes, and several types of cancer (and specifically colorectal cancer), and may reduce the risk of ischemic heart disease (mcmichael et al. 2007) . a shift from meat-based proteins to plant-based proteins has the potential to substantially increase the total food calories available for consumption worldwide. worldwide educational efforts, altered trade policies, shifts in farm subsidies, public health campaigns and new environmental stewardship programs will be needed to achieve a fundamental change in the consumption of meat to achieve large-scale cobenefits for the environment and human health. energy consumption and production affect carbon emissions, which in turn affect human health and ecosystem functioning and services. these effects can be divided into the influence of energy consumption and production. while human well-being is in many ways positively affected by the increased availability of energy, there are also negative health effects resulting from the energy consumption and production. below, we describe potential mitigation strategies for the energy sector. the us energy information administration reports on energy consumption in the united states in four sectors: residential, commercial, transportation, and industrial. in 2009, consumption across the four sectors accounted for 22, 19, 29, and 30% of overall energy consumption, respectively (us energy information administration 2010). overall energy consumption, as well as co 2 emissions from energy consumption, continues to rise. total us co 2 emissions from energy consumption were 1390 million metric tons of carbon in 1990 and 1586 million metric tons in 2008 (research and innovation technology administration 2011). reducing ghg emissions through declining energy consumption can be accomplished through a combination of technological advances and changes in human behavior (including the adoption of new or alternative technologies). several mitigation strategies for addressing energy consumption have been provided in the previous sections on transportation and shelter. in addition to those strategies, increasing the efficiency of appliances and lighting is likely to provide significant reductions in ghg emissions. the most efficient appliances in use today use half to one-fifth of their most inefficient counterparts currently in use (ipcc 2007b) . in developed countries, substituting smaller and more efficient refrigerators, washing machines, and other appliances for less efficient ones can substantially reduce energy use. in addition, in developed countries, improvements in the efficiency of electronic devices with inefficient standby modes and power supplies (or more simply unplugging these devices when not in use) can significantly reduce energy consumption. in developing countries where biomass (e.g., wood, dung, and charcoal) is used for cooking fuel, substantial reductions in ghg emissions and improvements in human health may be attained by increasing the efficiency of biomass stoves, fostering a shift to cleaner burning liquid and gaseous fuels, and improving access to electricity (ipcc 2007b). significant reductions in emissions can also be made through the use of more efficient lighting. the emissions from electric lighting worldwide are equivalent to roughly 70% of those generated by light passenger vehicles (iea 2006b). substituting more efficient lighting technology (e.g., compact fluorescent bulbs and occupancy detectors) can reduce residential energy use by a factor of four or five (ipcc 2007b). programs designed to increase the energy efficiency of appliances, vehicles, and lighting (e.g., the energy star and vehicle fuel economy (cafã�)) also have the potential to reduce ghg emissions. although such programs have not decreased energy use in the united states, they may be partially responsible for halting the growth of per capita energy consumption (us energy information administration 2009). methods for reducing the impacts of energy production on atmospheric co 2 concentrations, human health, and the environment focus primarily on improvements in an increased generation of renewable energy. renewable energy sources include those based on waves and tides, biofuels, solar, wind, and hydropower. a shift to renewable energy sources has great potential to reduce ghg emissions, reduce impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services, and improve human health. nonetheless, the production of renewable energy will have adverse effects on some ecosystems. below, we discuss some of the benefits and potential side effects of some sources of renewable energy. in regions of large tides and tidal currents, such as the united kingdom, tidal energy could supply as much as 10% of the country's energy supply (blunden and bahaj 2007) . two types of systems are in use or are proposed, the tidal barrage and tidal turbines. tidal barrages allow water to flow into a bay or estuary during flood tide, then they release the water back during ebb tide. as water is released it flows through turbines generating energy. the impact of barrages on fish may be substantial (aprahamian et al. 2010) . power can also be extracted in the marine environment by turbines in regions of high wave and current energy. however, the ecological impact of the extraction of energy in highly energetic environments is not clear (shields et al. 2011) . the effects of such installations include alteration of benthic (ocean bottom) environments through changes in sediment transport and detrimental impacts on intertidal species through altered currents and nutrient flows. biofuels (discussed briefly in section 4.25.2.1 transportation) include corn-and sugarcane-based ethanol, woodbased methanol, biodiesel from soy, rapeseed oil, and switchgrass. biomass is also used in cofiring (combining with coal or other fossil fuels in the burning process) or burned alone as a fuel. crops can be grown explicitly for biofuels, or residues from farming or forestry can be used as biofuels. biofuels can also be converted into gasses and then used to fuel gas engines. nonetheless, many biofuels require significant amounts of land and water to grow them, which brings fuel production into conflict with food production as well as potentially result in a climate effect from the alteration in the surface fluxes of heat and moisture into the atmosphere. in addition, fuel plants may not be as effective as others at absorbing ghgs, and more natural lands converted to agriculture for biofuels will result in increased erosion, decreased water quality, and a loss of wildlife habitat and biodiversity. solar energy can be used to generate electricity, heat water, and heat buildings and can be a highly effective form of renewable energy in some regions. although photovoltaic power generation only accounted for 0.004% of world power production as of 2007, expansion is occurring at roughly 30% per year, largely in developing countries (ipcc 2007b) . hot water production is the second single largest use of energy in residences in both the united states and china. solar water heating is a cost-effective alternative to other fuel sources in many locations. similarly, passive solar heating of buildings (mentioned in the section 4.25.2.2 shelter) is an effective heating measure in many regions. finally, solar energy can be used to generate power with solar thermal electric plants that focus solar rays to heat a liquid, which is then used to generate electricity. passive solar space heating and hot water production likely have the lowest environmental costs. decentralized photovoltaic use on residences and buildings incurs environmental costs in terms of the production process, but likely have few other negative effects. conversely, photovoltaic fields and solar thermal electric plants can have large footprints, adversely affecting plant and animal habitat. like solar power, wind-generated power is more effective in some areas than others. wind produced 0.5% of global electricity in 2004 but has been growing at a rate of approximately 28% per year since 2000 (ipcc 2007b ). there are potential adverse effects on birds, through collision, displacement due to disturbance, barrier effects, and habitat loss, with more research needed in all areas (drewitt and langston 2006; fox et al. 2006 ). in addition, the impact of wind turbines on views is perceived to be a substantial barrier to implementation in some communities (wolsink 2007) . as of 2004, hydropower accounted for 16% of global electricity (ipcc 2007b) . together, large hydropower plants and small and micro hydropower systems can supply power to large municipalities and isolated rural communities with relatively few emissions. hydropower is not carbon neutral, however, and some studies have estimated significant emissions from hydropower reservoirs (ipcc 2007b) . in addition, dams and reservoirs fragment river networks, alter natural flows of water and sediments, and change stream temperatures. these effects are discussed in section 4.25.3.5 human-dominated systems. there are several other major renewable energy sources including nuclear, hydrogen, and geothermal. as with the renewable sources described above, there are both benefits and costs to using these other renewable energies. most of the mitigation strategies discussed above are focused on reducing ghg emissions. additional strategies can be used to increase carbon sequestration, removing co 2 from the atmosphere. below, we discuss a few strategies that have been proposed for increasing carbon sequestration and storage as well as much riskier geoengineering proposals. deforestation is one of the largest sources of emission accounting for over 8 gt co 2 per year in 2000 (stern 2006) . although there are many other uses of natural resources that result in carbon emissions, here we focus on mitigation strategies that focus on deforestation. given the slow rate at which trees absorb carbon dioxide, simply planting new trees in place of those removed does not immediately offset the removal of a tree. a more rapid approach to mitigation is to reduce deforestation. unlike the majority of emissions that emanate from industrialized countries, most emissions from deforestation are generated by developing countries. deforestation also itself alters the climate system (pielke et al. 2007 ). reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (reddã¾) is a program of the united nations that seeks to mitigate climate change by providing incentives to conserve forest cover. given recognized challenges in redd (dickson et al. 2009 )including country by country differences in who owns the forest, who should receive the monetary benefits of preserving the forest, and the reliance of various indigenous groups on forests for livelihood and cultural identitythe program was modified to reddã¾ in 2010 to minimize negative consequences and respect the rights of indigenous peoples and members of local communities (kanninen et al. 2010) . assumed cobenefits include the suite of ecosystem services such as watershed protection; reduction of soil erosion; flood control; provision of fuel, timber, and foods; and cultural and spiritual amenities for local communities. biodiversity is presumably also enhanced by protecting natural systems. it is possible that forest-dependent communities will be able to maintain access to forests through this initiative. potential coharms are increased demand for conversion of other ecosystems if forests are protected, replacement of mixed stands with plantations, and benefits accruing to those not responsible for care and maintenance of the forests. prevention of deforestation mitigates atmospheric co 2 concentrations by preventing the release of stored carbon that occurs when forests are harvested and protecting forest stands that absorb carbon, as well as limits changes in surface energy and water fluxes. as of 2011, south america and africa continue to have the largest net loss of forests and large decreases in carbon storage (fao 2011) . although tropical forests have been the focus of early redd efforts, recent evidence indicates that a large amount of carbon can be stored in mangrove forests (donato et al. 2011) , peatlands (dise 2009) , and boreal forests (carlson et al. 2010) , making these potential targets for conservation efforts. urban forests have also been largely neglected as a potential carbon sink. escobedo et al. (2011) review the services and disservices of urban forests combined with human health and pollution mitigation as well as carbon sequestration. in some locations, urban forests are on par with other techniques for carbon sequestration and reduction. in addition to capturing carbon in plants, it may be possible to increase carbon storage in the water and in the earth's crust with various methods. these proposed approaches are still on the scientific fringe and considered to be highly unproven and/or potentially quite risky. one such approach is to capture carbon in the oceans through iron fertilization. in regions of the ocean where there are ample nutrients to drive primary production (photosynthesis) but observations show that chlorophyll is relatively low, the lack of iron is thought to limit the productivity. over the last two decades, several experiments have attempted to determine whether the addition of elemental iron into the water could cause an increase in algal production and ultimately, as photosynthesis fixes carbon into organic molecules that then sink, the sequestration of carbon in deep ocean sediments. however, the results of these experiments are mixed (de baar et al. 2005) , with the export of carbon being difficult to assess and likely quite modest. at the same time, the impacts on local ecosystems and thus ultimately fisheries in potentially highly productive regions of the subpolar oceans are not yet known. other carbon sequestration approaches have also been proposed including pumping air down into the oceans, injecting carbon into the ground, and incorporating biochar into soils. given the magnitude of projected changes in climate and the difficulty in implementing meaningful mitigation measures, some scientists have argued for large-scale efforts to reduce the amount of incoming solar radiation. these approaches are collectively referred to as geoengineering. at present, these approaches are unproven, risky, and, at best, will only address some of the impacts of the human influence on climate. one such geoengineering approach would inject sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. these aerosols would reflect incoming solar rays and reduce warming. although such an approach might reduce average global temperatures, it would also likely decrease average global precipitation (bala et al. 2008 ) as well as alter atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns. for a given change in radiative forcing, solar forcing is more effective at changing the hydrological cycle than forcing from carbon dioxide owing to differences in the surface latent heat (and thus evaporation) response. while the impact of carbon dioxide fertilization could increase net primary production in terrestrial ecosystems (govindasamy et al. 2002) , ecosystems could continue to be vulnerable due to changes in water resources. in addition, solar radiation management would not address the potentially significant problem of ocean acidification to marine ecosystems. the majority of both natural and human systems will have to adapt to climate change in some form or the other. a broad array of adaptation strategies has been proposed for reducing the impacts of climate change in both more natural systems and human communities (ipcc 2007a; heller and zavaleta 2009) ( table 2) . many of these strategies are either general concepts or strategies that apply to most ecosystems and regions. we begin by describing general concepts and strategies. we then describe some of the strategies that have been proposed for four broad types of ecosystems including freshwater, terrestrial, coastal, and human-dominated systems. for the freshwater, terrestrial, and coastal systems, we focus on strategies that would lessen negative impacts of changing climate on ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services. for the human-dominated systems, we discuss the ways that some of the most often discussed strategies for climate adaptation in these systems will impact (either negatively or positively) ecosystem functioning and the provision of ecosystem services in these and in surrounding areas. developing adaptation strategies to address future shifts in climate will require expanding the temporal and spatial scales of plans, policies, and management (kareiva et al. 2008; lawler three-year, 5-year, and even 10-year plans will fail to address many climate impacts. future planning will need to address both short-term and long-term changes in systems. to address long-term changes, plans and policies will need to look at least 20 years into the future and will be more useful if they look ahead 50 or more years for many ecosystems and ecosystem services. it will often also be necessary to expand the spatial scale at which systems are managed and policies and plans are developed. as species move and ecosystems change, it will be necessary to think well beyond neighborhood, park, refuge, state, or even national boundaries. planning will need to occur at multiple, integrated scales and will need to involve local, regional, and sometimes national participants (kareiva et al. 2008) . while expanding the temporal and spatial scale of climate adaptation strategies, it will be necessary to keep in view local histories, politics, and economies. scale and locality also play a formative role for issues of 'environmental' or 'climate' justice. environmental justice describes the tendency for poor communities to be more vulnerable to environmental degradation. poor communities tend to bear not only the unequal burden of polluting, destructive, and destabilizing industries but also a disproportionate share of the blame for environmental destruction and responsibility for ameliorating environmental change. for example, polluting industries are often located in poor communities due to cheap land values and the inability of poor communities to politically resist their presence, or a desire to develop jobs at any cost. for instance, swidden agriculturalists in southeast asia have been blamed for forest fires despite satellite data pinning large fires to governmentsponsored oil palm plantations (harwell 2000) and southeast asian fishers living near toxic riparian runoff from mining have been blamed for polluting local waters by cyanide fishing (lowe 2006) . the broad spatial scales that are required to address the effects of a changing climate necessitate cooperation and coordination among managers, planners, and policy makers from different jurisdictions, agencies, and management units (kareiva et al. 2008) . they require agencies with diverse mandates and cultures to work together in ways that they have not done in the past. as an example, the us climate change science program is a federal organization that reaches across federal agencies. the broad scale of climate impacts also requires cooperation across sectors of society and different types of organizations including nongovernmental organizations, local and regional governments, citizen groups, and industry. the us fish and wildlife service's landscape conservation cooperatives are an example of a system designed to bring together diverse groups of scientists, stakeholders, policy makers, and managers to, in part, address climate change. in addition, as emissions from one locale affect the climate in other locales, addressing the global nature of climate change will involve cooperation at an international level (hannah 2010) . although, as the above examples demonstrate, some regional, national, and international efforts have been put in place to foster collaboration, more such efforts will need to be made to adequately address climate change. in addition to cooperation among scientific and political leaders, local and regional stakeholders need to work together as a unified force for social and environmental change. representatives from the global north need to appreciate perspectives emanating from the global south and vice versa. climate adaptation can be brought into many other environmental and social justice agendas among community advocacy groups and should not remain the purview of the community of knowledge leaders with scientific expertise. there are three fundamental approaches to managing systems in a changing climatepromoting resistance, resilience, and transition. resistance-based adaptation strategies focus on maintaining the current state of a system in the face of climate change or climate-driven changes in the environment. building a seawall to prevent erosion as sea levels rise and storm surges intensify is an example of a resistance-based adaptation strategy. resilience can be defined as the ability of a species or system to return to its current state following a perturbation (e.g., holling 1973) . resilient systems will be able to maintain ecosystem functions and processes and avoid a transition to a new state as climates change. most of the discussion of climate adaptation to date has focused on managing ecosystems for resistance or resilience. most of the general adaptation strategies discussed below and the more specific strategies discussed for each of the four types of ecosystems are intended to increase resilience. the magnitude and rate of projected climatic changes over the coming century will likely make both resistance-and resilience-based strategies insufficient or ineffective in the long run. managing many systems will require promoting change to a new state. strategies for promoting change in human-dominated systems may include planting new crops, redesigning road networks, and relocating people. strategies for fostering change in more natural systems include assisted colonization of threatened plants and animals (see below) and shifting management efforts from one species to another. the outcomes of these more aggressive and forward-looking strategies will be more uncertain, and their implementation will be more controversial. change is especially hard in social contexts where it is uncomfortable, disadvantageous, expensive, or where the old system is remunerative or beneficial to elites, decision makers, or other small influential groups. adaptive management is a flexible approach to managing a system in which the management actions are treated as largescale experiments (holling 1978; walters and hilborn 1978) . it is an iterative process in which the system is monitored following the initial management action and new actions (again treated as experiments) are designed and implemented in response to the results of the initial actions. adaptive management was conceived for managing highly uncertain systems, and thus it has great potential for managing systems in a changing climate (arvai et al. 2006) . adaptive management approaches designed to address climate change will likely have four basic steps (kareiva et al. 2008) : (1) assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the system in question, (2) designing management actionsin the form of experiments with testable hypotheses or predictionsto address the potential impacts, (3) monitoring the system for climatic changes and system responses, and (4) using the results of the monitoring to evaluate the effectiveness of the management actions and redesign them as necessary before repeating the four steps. it is generally accepted that more diverse systems are more resilient to environmental change than less diverse systems. thus, restoring or protecting the biological diversity of a system will likely increase resilience of that system to climate change (glick et al. 2009 ). this diversity can be in the form of species diversity, environmental diversity, or genetic diversity (schindler et al. 2010) . a second, general approach to increasing resilience of species and systems involves reducing the impacts of other factors that reduce the overall resilience of the species or system. for individual species, this might mean reducing harvest, restoring or protecting habitat, eliminating diseases, or reducing human interactions. for ecosystems, this may mean reducing pollutants, restoring vegetation, reducing human use, and controlling invasive species. as climates change, many species need to move to track suitable climatic conditions and changing habitats. in some cases, it may be possible to facilitate movement by increasing connectivity of freshwater and terrestrial landscapes (see sections 4.25.3.2 freshwater systems and 4.25.3.3 terrestrial systems). however, many species with limited dispersal abilities or that face significant barriers to dispersal will be unable to respond to changing climates. assisted colonization is one strategy that has been proposed for facilitating climate-driven range shifts (hunter 2007; mclachlan et al. 2007 ); also referred to as managed relocation and assisted migrationassisted colonization is the translocation of species outside their native range to facilitate movement in response to climate change. the concept is controversial for both ethical and ecological reasons. some researchers have highlighted the potential for negative, ecological, evolutionary, and economic impacts, as well as ethical concerns (ricciardi and simberloff 2009; sax et al. 2009 ). advocates argue that assisted colonization will be essential for cases in which species will have to move to find suitable environments but will be unable to do so, that many of the potential risks are overblown, and that guidance can be developed for the strategic and informed use of assisted colonization. several decision-making frameworks and prioritization strategies for applying assisted colonization have been proposed (hoegh-guldberg et al. 2008; richardson et al. 2009 ). although assisted colonization will likely be a useful strategy in many systems, there will be specific factors and risks that will need to be considered for particular systems (e.g., in freshwater systems, olden et al. 2011 ). virtually all freshwater systems are already impacted by human activities (e.g., vã¶rã¶smarty et al. 2010) . under current climate projections, virtually all freshwater ecosystems will face significant impacts by the middle of this century. most of these impacts will be detrimental from the perspective of existing freshwater ecosystems and the human livelihoods and communities that depend upon them (poff et al. 2002) . discussions have broadly focused on rising water and air temperatures, increasing and decreasing precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration, and changing regimes of groundwater and surface runoff. there are four basic types of adaptation strategies that have been proposed for addressing these impending impacts. we define these as ecological water management, connectivity, protected areas, and restoration strategies. below, we briefly describe some of the specific strategies that have been proposed in each of these areas. increased water scarcity associated with decreased precipitation and increased warming in some regions is likely to prompt the modification of dams and reservoirs to improve storage capacity (see section 4.25.3.5.3 managed aquatic systems). traditional water management has generally sought to dampen the natural variability of river flows to attain steady and dependable water supplies for domestic and industrial uses, irrigation, navigation, and hydropower, and to moderate extreme water conditions such as floods and droughts (postel and richter 2003) . however, the extraordinary species richness and productivity characteristic of freshwater ecosystems is strongly dependent upon, and attributable to, the natural variability of their hydrologic conditions. thus, large changes to natural flow regimes can have large impacts on species, ecosystems, and society (postel and carpenter 1997; iucn 2000; wcd 2000) . the water needs of humans and natural ecosystems are commonly viewed as competing. however, water managers and political leaders increasingly recognize that there are limits to the amount of water that can be withdrawn from freshwater systems before their natural functioning and productivity, native species, and the array of goods and services they provide are severely degraded ). this has led to a growing realization that society derives substantial benefits both from out-of-stream extractions of water as well as by maintaining adequate flows of water within freshwater ecosystems. in recent years, the water needs of river ecosystems are receiving increasing attention in water-supply planning, offering hope that many rivers can be protected before their health and ability to provide important goods and services is seriously compromised by water development. restoring or protecting some semblance of the natural river flow conditions necessary to support ecosystem function (called environmental flows) into the future is one of the most important climate change adaptation strategies for flowing waters. recent regulatory mandates and policy decisions calling for restoring and preserving environmental flows have led to a reexamination of dam operations for better protection of river health (watts et al. 2011) . for example, the south african national water act (1998) calls for the creation of a reserve of water in each river basin to meet both basic human needs and protect river ecosystem health. similarly, other national directives and international agreements such as the water framework directive of the european union are providing mechanisms for river protection, including the provision of adequate environmental flows (postel and richter 2003) . maintenance of environmental flows (flows that sustain river ecosystems) is likely to be the highest priority adaptation response for freshwater ecosystems in most contexts. this will require policies and implementation mechanisms to protect (and, if necessary, restore) flows now, and to continue to provide environmental flow regimes under changing patterns of runoff associated with climate change. as air and water temperatures warm, many freshwater species will be forced to rapidly adapt to their new environments, to migrate to more suitable habitats, or face extinction (heino et al. 2009 ). responses of aquatic organisms to climate change will be constrained because they are limited to dispersal along pathways of connected water. consequently, the linear nature of river systems makes them highly prone to fragmentation from waterfalls, dams, and water withdrawals. such fragmentation can not only limit dispersal and the ability of species to track climate change but also disrupt the completion of life cycles for many freshwater organisms. for many streams, especially in arid and semiarid ecosystems, there is concern that more frequent and severe droughts will lead to the building of more dams and water diversions, further fragmenting stream networks (seager et al. 2007) . increasing the connectivity of freshwater systems is one key way to help aquatic systems adapt to climate change. species responses to climate change will be limited by human-engineered structures, including hundreds of thousands of dams, diversions, and impassable road culverts that exist globally (nilsson and schopfhauser 1995) . in the united states alone, there are over 80 000 large dams and an estimated 2.5 million or more small impoundments that disrupt the dispersal of aquatic organisms. in recent decades, however, new water laws and programs have helped to increase habitat connectivity by removing or modifying human barriers to movement in river systems. increasingly, small dams and diversions are being removed for a number of ecological, social, and economic reasons, including the enhancement of longitudinal connectivity for fish migration (stanley and doyle 2003) . similarly, temporary barriers such as impassable culverts under roadways are being modified to allow for easier recolonization and movement of fishes (roni et al. 2008) . although this management strategy may promote the adaptive capacity of species to respond to climate change, the removal of such obstructions can simultaneously increase the risk of invasion by nonnative species and associated diseases, which are major threats to ecosystem structure and function. in fact, the conversion of culverts into permanent barriers has been a common management approach to protect isolated native populations from invasive species spreading upstream (fausch et al. 2009 ). given the complexities of promoting the movement of native species while concurrently limiting the spread of invasive species, it is unlikely that the removal of barriers to enhance habitat connectivity will be a successful adaptation strategy in all areas for reducing the impacts of climate change on ecosystem function. in addition to restoring or protecting environmental flows and increasing connectivity within stream networks, it may be necessary to protect the species themselves to allow them to move through or persist in more intensely managed landscapes. in aquatic ecosystems, this may involve increasing the size of existing reserves or creating new protected areas that encompass important freshwater resources and allow for native species and assemblages to persist into the future (abell et al. 2007) . such acquisitions and agreements ideally would capture a large portion of the geographical, ecological, and geophysical range of multiple species, thus increasing opportunities for organisms to adapt and evolve to changing environmental conditions. protected areas have historically been a cornerstone of terrestrial conservationand are discussed in much more detail in that section, below. nonetheless, protected areas will likely play a major role in protecting aquatic species as climate change and areas could easily be prioritized to provide protection for both terrestrial and aquatic systems in a changing climate (abell et al. 2007 ). projected increases in air temperatures, combined with reduced snowpack, earlier onset of spring peak flows, and lower summer baseflows, will have direct implications for the thermal regimes of streams and rivers (poff et al. 2002) . the ecological implications of stream warming are significant. water temperature directly influences the metabolic rates, physiology, and life histories of aquatic species and helps determine rates of important ecological processes such as nutrient cycling and productivity. in general, warming will produce a general shift in species distribution poleward with extinctions and extirpations of cold-water species at lower latitudes and range expansion of warm-water (often invasive species) and cool-water species into higher latitudes. restoring and protecting riparian vegetationthe trees and shrubs that grow along the banks of rivers and streamshas the potential to reduce stream temperatures in certain places. recent modeling suggests that riparian habitat restoration can play an important role in offsetting the effects of climate change. battin et al. (2007) used a series of linked models of climate, land cover, hydrology, and salmon population dynamics to investigate the impacts of altered stream flow and temperature on the effectiveness of proposed habitat restoration efforts designed to recover chinook salmon populations in the pacific northwest of the united states. this study showed that in the absence of habitat restoration, basin-wide spawning populations would decline by an average of 20-40% by 2050. by contrast, they found large increases in juvenile rearing capacity associated with proposed riparian habitat restoration, which limited climate-induced declines to 5% according to one climate model and increased salmon abundance by 19% according to another model. however, the model results showed that not all expected climate impacts could be mitigated entirely. in relatively narrow streams, reforestation was predicted to decrease water temperatures by increasing shading, but in wide, main-stem reaches where most chinook salmon spawn, riparian vegetation had a minor effect on water temperature. in addition to restoring riparian areas, targeted protection of forested riparian buffers using fencing to stop livestock from entering the stream and trampling/grazing vegetation or conservation easements to eliminate farming activities may also help to reduce stream temperatures. the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for addressing climate change in terrestrial systems can be loosely grouped into three categoriesthose that involve protected lands and conservation planning, those that address connectivity, and those that are more species or site specific in nature. protecting land is arguably one of the most effective ways of conserving biodiversity and terrestrial ecosystem services. it is generally assumed that lands that are selected to protect today's species and ecological systems will protect those species and systems into the future. climate change brings this assumption into question. as climates change and species distributions shift, species will move into and out of reserves. changes in species composition, the timing of ecological events, and the rates of ecosystem processes will result in changes in the functioning of ecosystems and the services they provide. many proposed adaptation strategies address these challenges by augmenting current protected areas with additional reserves, parks, and preserves (heller and zavaleta 2009; lawler 2009 ). these strategies range from broad calls for more protected lands to more sophisticated recommendations about how to select new lands or design new reserves to better protect biodiversity and ecosystem services as climates change. a number of strategies have been proposed for determining where to put new protected lands to best address the effects of climate change. some of the simplest strategies involve placing reserves at the poleward or elevational boundaries of the range limits of specific species (peters and darling 1985) , at major transitions between vegetation formations (halpin 1997) , or at the core of species environmental distributions (araãºjo et al. 2004) . others have proposed placing reserves between existing reservesin the hopes that those new reserves will act as stepping stones allowing species to better move from reserve to reserve. yet another recommendation involves placing reserves across strong environmental gradients. reserves that span many different environments will potentially allow species to shift their distributions without leaving the reserve. in addition to these simple rules of thumb for placing reserves to address climate change, many more sophisticated approaches to selecting areas for new reserves have been proposed. for example, modeled climate-driven shifts in species distributions can be used to select new reserves that will protect biodiversity today and into the future (hannah et al. 2007; vos et al. 2008; hole et al. 2009 ). although this approach may prove useful for some species and systems, care must be taken in the use of the models developed to project species range shifts. there are many uncertainties associated with the models themselves and the climate projections on which they rely. another proposed approach to building a reserve network that will be resilient to climate change involves protecting environments in lieu of protecting species and systems. this approach has been referred to as 'protecting the ecological stage.' this analogy implies that the species and the ecological systems are players and that the soils and topography of a region form the stage on which they interact and evolve. by protecting a suite of diverse environments, it is assumed that one will protect the areas where new ecological systems can develop as climates change (anderson and ferree 2010; beier and brost 2010) . similarly, others have suggested that more resilient reserve networks will be those that include a diversity of current climates (pyke and fischer 2005) . although climates will change, many of the climate gradients generated by latitudinal and topographic patterns will remain. thus, a set of reserves that protects a diversity of climates today will likely protect a diversity of climates in the future. at least one recent study has applied the concept of protecting environments (topographies, soils, and climate gradients) to a reserve-selection problem (schloss et al. 2011) . one last approach to building a resilient reserve network in a changing climate involves placing reserves in areas that are likely to serve as climate refugia. refugia are areas that are projected to experience minimal climatic changes and/or have cooler microclimates (saxon et al. 2005; hansen et al. 2010; shoo et al. 2011) . one potential opportunity for climate change adaptation is to consider people as an essential component of species conservation and climate adaptation. while reserve and park systems have a long history of alienating local people, using violence and other coercive measures to separate people and wildlife, in this case, local livelihoods are also threatened by climate change. this provides an opening for a new approach to conservation and a new discourse on the relationship between local people and wildlife. as for freshwater systems, improving the connectivity of the terrestrial landscape will be critical for addressing climate change. in response to historical climatic changes, many species shifted their rangesmoving toward the equator as ice sheets advanced and moving poleward as the ice sheets retreated. today's species will have a much harder time responding to current and impending climatic changes. present-day landscapesunlike the landscapes of the distant pastare fragmented by roads, agricultural fields, and residential development. given that many species will have trouble moving across these human-dominated landscapes, it will be essential to reconnect fragmented landscapes to allow species to respond to shifting climates. not surprisingly, improving landscape connectivity was the most often recommended climate change adaptation strategy in a recent review of the literature (heller and zavaleta 2009 ). many of the recommendations for increasing connectivity involve designing corridors that connect current protected lands. traditionally, such corridors have been designed for particular focal species, and they have connected reserves or remaining fragments of habitat. however, corridors that facilitate species ranges shifts and the reshuffling of ecosystems will need to connect what is habitat for a species today with an area that may become habitat in the future. in this way, corridor design will need to evolve to address climate change. one such approach to developing corridors for addressing climate change involves basing the corridors on environmental gradients instead of on the current vegetation (which is often used as a measure of habitat) (beier and brost 2010) . another approach uses projected changes in climate to orient corridors (ackerly et al. 2010) . a third method involves using modeled shifts in species distributions to identify potential routes that species would need to take to move from currently suitable climates to places where climates will likely be suitable in the future (williams et al. 2005; rose and burton 2009) . these three approaches are based on different assumptions and have different levels of associated uncertainty. in general, the uncertainty increases with the intensity of modeling required to identify the corridor, and thus the first of the three approaches has the least inherent uncertainty and the last of the three has the most. although corridors may be useful for some species, they will not be feasible or effective in all places or for all species. in addition to designing corridors to facilitate species movements, it will likely be necessary to improve the permeability of the landscape in general (franklin and lindenmayer 2009 ). increasing landscape permeability will involve changing the way we use and manage the landscape. changes in forest harvest practices from clear-cuts to selective, retention harvests can increase the connectivity of forested landscapes. landscape planning and zoning for residential development can reduce landscape fragmentation. windbreaks, fencerows, and crop choices can be used to increase the connectivity of agricultural lands. at a finer scale, choices of landscaping plants, road placement, and wildlife over-and underpasses can increase landscape permeability. protected lands and connectivity increase species ability to adapt to changing climates at relatively large spatial scales. in general, they address species movements. adaptation strategies are also needed at finer scales. in particular, strategies are needed that address individual species and ecosystems. many of these finer scale approaches tend to involve reducing temperatures or otherwise offsetting the exposure to the changes in climate or climate-driven changes in environmental conditions. for example, it may be possible to reduce temperatures by restoring vegetation to provide shade (wilby et al. 1998; wilby and perry 2006) . it may be possible to reduce the impacts of changing fire regimes through forest management practices. fire suppression policies, may, for example, have particularly severe ramifications in a climate in which fires will generally be larger and more frequent. it may also be feasible to provide supplemental water for particularly vulnerable plants or animals in times of drought or during heat waves. similarly, shade shelters could be provided to help some animals weather heat waves in extreme climates. although some of these strategies may prove useful in the short term, many will be neither cost-effective nor long-term solutions. another system-specific approach to addressing climate change involves altering species composition or community structure in a way that allows a system to better cope with climatic changes. for a forested system, this may mean planting new species or planting seeds of the same species that have a different genetic makeup (millar et al. 2007; glick et al. 2009 ). likewise, for grasslands and shrublands, this may mean choosing different species or strains for restoration purposes. moreover, it may mean facilitating the transformation of an ecosystemfor example from a shrubland to a woodland or from a shrubland to a grassland. in many cases, the first species to move into these transitioning systems may be invasive species. facilitating the transition to a new state using species native to the region may, in many cases be preferable to having new systems dominated by invasive species. these extreme cases will require ex situ conservation strategies, including seed banking and captive breeding to ensure the long-term survival of the species. the interface between the land, sea, and air found in coastal areas is a high-energy system subject to storms, winds, and tides. it is also where the majority of protein comes from in many regions of the world. many vital ecosystem services are provided along coastal margins of continents and islands. fringing coral reefs and mangrove forests buffer wave energy, which reduces erosion along the coast. these systems also provide critical habitat for many species, especially nursery areas for provisional services such as fisheries. in many areas, sea-level rise and associated storm surges will make it difficult to protect these systems and the services they provide. nonetheless, there are two main approaches that will likely prove most useful in coastal systems: building resilience through protection and restoration and facilitating the transition to new ecosystems. one of the more beneficial ways, from both an environmental and economic standpoint, to adapt to predicted changes from climate change is by protecting and restoring natural systems that provide multiple ecosystems services. this would include protection of human infrastructure from sea-level rise and increased inundation. protection and restoration of natural buffers such as barrier islands, mangroves, and coral reefs not only require little financial construction and maintenance but also maintain the wealth of ecosystem services associated with these systems, which include nursery and rearing habitat for many commercial seafood stocks such as fish and shrimp, recreational and cultural opportunities for humans, and protection from inundation. some natural protection features such as sea ice cannot be maintained in the face of increasing temperatures. in alaska, the loss of sea ice and melting of permafrost due to warming ocean and air temperatures has exposed the shore to wave energy that used to be absorbed or damped by sea ice or frozen soils. undoubtedly, ecosystem services that depended on that sea ice protection have also been lost. many regions have seen a huge decrease in the area covered by mangroves as coastal areas are drained and mangroves removed for aquaculture. worldwide, it is estimated that more than 50% of mangrove forests have been destroyed or converted to other uses. on a local scale, many areas have lost all of their mangroves. this loss destroys a wide range of ecosystem services provided by these forests, which range from carbon sequestration to flood protection, spawning, and rearing grounds for many fish and other marine species. restoring mangrove forests results in increased storm surge protection for natural and human coastal systems, provides nursery habitat for many commercially important fisheries, and stores sediments that may damage offshore coral reefs. worldwide, corals exhibit well-documented environmental adaptability over time scales of weeks to thousands of years. corals are actually two creatures that live together in a symbiotic relationship. zooxanthellae are the algal component of corals that provide nutrients generated from photosynthesis to the animal component. different zooxanthellae species and different species of corals in general have differential environmental tolerances. for example, some corals near the arabian peninsula exist under conditions of salinity and temperature that are greater than near-term predicted future average salinities and temperatures resulting from climate change. these adaptive changes likely operate on a decadal time scale. thus, in some cases, it may be possible to identify particular species or zooxanthellae and algal combinations that are more resilient to warming. protecting coral reefs from other stressors such as excess sediment and/or nutrient and pollutant inputs from terrestrial sources and unregulated diving can increase the coral's ability to adapt to increased water temperatures. technological adaptation measures include using sprinklers to create roughened sea surface to decrease light penetration or covering reefs with shade cloth to limit bleaching of corals. as sea levels rise, many coastal systems will need to migrate inland. when there are extensive human uses of coastal space or urban buildup, space for ecosystem recovery and migration of species will not be available. providing space for the migration of biotic elements of the coastal system at the same time as when human populations are forced to move would provide cobenefits for coastal life and human communities. ecosystems will usually adjust to changing salinities and water levels, and the services provided by the system will be maintained where conditions are suitable. for example, in 1996, a subdivision east of houston in baytown, texas, was bought out, the structures removed, and the entire area restored to coastal wetlands. a more extreme example of planned retreat is the maldive islands. their current plan is to exploit the current coastal amenities, primarily beaches and coral reefs; secure capital with which to train younger citizens; and prepare them for relocation to other countries such as india, sri lanka, and australia. in the short term, there are negative consequences to ecosystem services due to commercial and touristic exploitation, but in the long run, by abandoning the islands, the system will be able to come to a new ecological state. in some cases, removing human infrastructure will be a necessary but insufficient means of fostering landward shifts in coastal systems. in such cases, it may be necessary to facilitate the shift in natural systems and stabilize soils by planting more coastal species inland as water levels rise. such actions have been taken as part of the alligator river climate change adaptation project on the north carolina coast in the southeastern united states poulter 2005) . here we describe some of the adaptation strategies that have been proposed for built environments, agricultural systems, and managed freshwater systems. we explicitly focus on how the most commonly proposed strategies could affect associated ecosystems. the severity of climate change impacts will depend, in large part, on our ability to transform the built environment in response to changing conditions. the following section discusses some of the climate change adaptation strategies that will likely take place in built environments and the effects that these strategies may have on ecosystem functions and services. we briefly discuss human migrations, flood control, sea-level rise, increased water storage, and urban heat-island effects. perhaps the most basic form of climate change adaptation involving the built environment is human migration. vulnerable populations will be forced to abandon their homes, relocate, and rebuild. they will displace resident populations and open up the possibility of conflict in the process. the bulk of climate change-related human migration that is already occurring involves movement from rural areas to cities in developing countries. unplanned urban growth will fuel the expansion of informal urban settlements, and by 2050, 3 ã� 10 9 people, one-third of the world's population, may inhabit urban slums. in both rural and urban environments, proactive planning and resettlement strategies that identify populations at risk and relocate them stand to drastically reduce long-term human hardship stemming from climate change. they can also protect vital ecosystems from the degradation associated with unplanned development. however, resettlement can have profound negative impacts. poorly executed, it can degrade indigenous culture, undermine traditional livelihoods, destroy social networks, and deepen poverty by distancing poor communities from employment opportunities. given these dangers, in some cases, it is preferable to fortify communities against climate change impacts in place. this approach introduces improvements to infrastructure and housing, builds upon the prior efforts of communities, and preserves social networks. in many regions, climate change will result in increased rainfall and flooding. conventional approaches to storm water management rely on defensive hard structures. water runs from impermeable concrete and asphalt surfaces into storm drains, culverts, and concrete embankments. rivers are straightened, channelized, and isolated from their natural floodplains to accommodate human settlement. as flood events become more intense and frequent with climate change, storm water management strategies must evolve. rather than take a defensive stance, they should promote the coexistence of humans, habitat, and water. soft infrastructure or low-impact development strategies, such as permeable paving, green roofs, green walls, rain gardens, bioswales, and constructed wetlands offer a promising alternative to conventional storm water infrastructure. they promote groundwater recharge, reduce flooding, and improve water quality with downstream benefits to aquatic habitats. in areas of severe flood risk, resettling residents on higher ground and reintroducing rivers to their floodplains protects human populations, dissipates flood energy, and creates wetland habitat. through temporal landuse practices such as intermittent farming, floods become an asset rather than a threat, depositing sediments that enrich agricultural lands. by 2050, rising sea levels may displace as many as 162 million people (myers 2002) . like conventional storm water infrastructure, conventional seawall infrastructure relies on defensive hard structures. as sea levels rise, existing levees will become obsolete. here again, soft-infrastructure strategies offer a promising alternative. graduated transitions from sea to land including manmade offshore islands, expansive shallows, and coastal marshes act as buffers for storm surge better equipped to absorb the impacts of extreme weather events. they provide habitat for marine species and, in coastal cities, public space for recreation when conditions permit. in places like coastal peru and sub-saharan africa, disappearing glaciers and reduced precipitation will increase the frequency, duration, and impacts of drought, undermining food and water security. a number of interventions in the built environment can help communities cope with water scarcity. increasing water storage at scales ranging from dams to urban reservoirs and household rainwater barrels helps bolster water supplies during prolonged dry periods. in coastal areas, desalination plants and, in select localities of south america and africa, fog harvesting may prove to be viable alternative water sources. ecological sanitation technologies such as dry toilets and gray water wetlands conserve potable water for drinking and, as part of a network of integrated ecological infrastructure systems, irrigate and provide nutrients for urban farms and forests. they also help prevent contamination of local water bodies, preserving their viability as sources of potable water and ecological integrity. further impacts of, and opportunities associated with, these various adaptation strategies are discussed in the sections 4. 25.3.5.2 and 4.25.3.5.3. cities in developed countries are on average 1-3 c hotter than the surrounding countryside (un human settlements programme 2011). higher urban temperatures increase energy use, degrade urban air quality, raise the temperature of urban storm water runoff, and contribute to general discomfort, respiratory illnesses, heat stroke, and other heat-related illnesses. warming in conjunction with increased urbanization will amplify urban heat-island effects and their associated impacts. several strategies can help reduce urban temperatures. at the scale of the site, urban trees with high, dense canopies, strategically planted around buildings, in parking lots, and along streets permit the passage of air, shade heat-absorbing surfaces, and cool the atmosphere through evapotranspiration. they also reduce the temperature of runoff water. green roofs perform a similar function on roof surfaces. buildings and landscapes constructed from materials with high solar reflectance or albedo absorb less heat and reduce urban temperatures. at a larger scale, streets oriented parallel (or up to 30 ) to prevailing winds, permeable networks of public open space, strategically situated low-rise buildings, and gaps between high-rise structures increase the air permeability of urban environments. increased temperatures and changes in precipitation regimes are likely to have negative impacts on global food security by worsening the existing regional disparities between developing and developed countries (easterling et al. 2007; rosenzweig and tubiello 2007) . this is supported by the prediction that a moderate warming accompanied with elevated co 2 concentrations is likely to lead to an increase in crop productivity of developed countries in temperate mid and high latitudes, whereas even a slight increase in temperature could damage crops that are already growing at supraoptimal temperatures in countries located in tropical, low latitudes (easterling et al. 2007; easterling 2010) . as in other systems, even with significant mitigation efforts, adaptation strategies will be necessary to address the impacts of climate change on agriculture. adaptation strategies for more resilient agricultural systems may include altering the timing and location of cropping, switching crop species and cultivars, selecting livestock breeds, crop rotations, and efficiently using and managing water resources. these types of adaptation strategies have been referred to as autonomous strategies (easterling 2010) . implementing some of these strategies, such as changing the type of livestock that is grazed or changing crop rotations could have profound effects on ecosystem functioning. however, in general, these types of adaptation strategies will have environmental impacts smaller than more intensive strategies that are designed to transform systems. for many agricultural systems, the magnitude of climatic changes will necessitate more intensive planned adaptation strategies that foster significant transformations of systems or infrastructures (easterling 2010) . such intensive strategies will be particularly important for sub-saharan africa and south asia where climate will have major impacts on agriculture (lobell et al. 2008; nelson et al. 2009 ). these planned adaptation options include developing new infrastructure (e.g., irrigation infrastructure, transport and storage infrastructure, and efficient water use and reuse technologies), investing in new technical and management options (e.g., crop and livestock improvement, enhancing germplasm), shifts in the distribution of agriculture (e.g., abandoning some areas and farming new lands), and building the capacity to make continuing adjustments. here, we discuss two of these strategiesimproving crop performance and water conservationin more detail. stresses on crops due to extreme heat and pest and pathogen pressures are likely to increase with climate change (deutsch et al. 2008; battisti and naylor 2009) . multiple adaptation options are available for improving crop performance in the face of such climate-driven stresses. first, in conjunction with conventional breeding, crop improvement through genetic engineering is seen as an effective adaptation tool in a changing climatealthough public opinion is often divided on the use and consequences of genetically engineered crops (macdiarmid 2007; jones 2011) . a second approach involves maintaining crop genetic diversity by, for example, collecting and storing the diversity of current cultivars or local landraces. a third adaptation strategy involves exploiting symbiotic relationships between crops and other organisms. for example, it has been shown that numerous fungal and bacterial endophytes confer stress tolerance to heat, drought, salinity, and pathogen attacks (rodriguez et al. 2008; rodriguez et al. 2009 ), and others promote growth and fix atmospheric nitrogen xin et al. 2009 ). other strategies include the application of kaolin particle films to reduce heat stress and photoinhibition and to mitigate pest damage (glenn et al. 1999; glenn 2009 ) as well as the incorporation of biochar into soils to confer numerous agronomic benefits that enhance crop performance and stress tolerance (marris 2006) . irrigated agriculture accounts for about 70% of the world's freshwater withdrawals (rosegrant et al. 2009 ). with increasing global population, the demand for irrigated agriculture will continue to increase globally because realized crop yields normally increase considerably with irrigation. adaptation strategies that foster more efficient use of water in agriculture will be critical for achieving global food security while conserving water in a changing climate. these strategies will include institutional water management reform, economic incentives for efficient water use, and infrastructure investment for efficient irrigation and water delivery systems (rosegrant et al. 2009 ). the 'virtual water' trade through crop products from water-abundant to water-deficit areas should be considered as one of the key adaptation options to climate change (rosegrant et al. 2009; easterling 2010) . improving crops for higher water-use efficiency (i.e., greater yield with less water use) should be a goal for genetic, ecological, and agronomic options of adaptation discussed above. alternative strategies of increasing water storage capacity with dams and increasing the number of stream diversions for agriculture will, in contrast, have significant impacts on aquatic ecosystems (see the section 4.25.3.5.3 managed aquatic systems). as discussed above, changes in temperature and precipitation are likely to lead to changes in the demand for water. projected climatic changes will likely lead to increased demands for residential use, irrigated agriculture, hydropower production, and carbon capture and storage technologies. in some regions, current water management may not adequately cope with the impacts of changing precipitation regimes and increased evaporation on the reliability of water supply, flood risk, health, agriculture, energy generation, and freshwater ecosystems (palmer 2008) . adaptation strategies designed to address water management for human uses will either directly or indirectly affect ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services. in addition to the adaptation strategies for addressing water demands for agriculture and residential use (addressed to some extent in sections 4.25.3.5.1 and 4.25.3.5.2), other important adaptation strategies for managed aquatic systems that will impact ecosystem functions and services include increased extraction of groundwater, improving storage capacity by building or modifying dams and reservoirs, desalination of seawater, and expansion of rainwater storage and water transfer (bates et al. 2008; hirji and davis 2009) . improving storage capacity by building or modifying dams and reservoirs is likely to be one of the most common regional responses to decreased water availability and increased demand for water. the great utility of running water has resulted in the extensive exploitation of streams and rivers by humans throughout the world, a process greatly facilitated by the construction of hundreds of thousands of dams globally (nilsson et al. 2005) . by capturing high river flows and releasing the water in a carefully controlled manner, dam managers can deliver steady and dependable water supplies to downstream areas, protect settlements from floods, or generate power. although human manipulation of the world's river flows has provided many societal benefits, it has also caused considerable ecological damage and the loss of important ecosystem services valued by society (baron et al. 2002) . flow regulation for hydropower and storage, diversion for human use, and extraction of groundwater connected to stream systems often significantly affect the natural seasonal and interannual variation in river flow, commonly referred to as the natural flow regime (poff et al. 1997) . a natural flow regime is needed to sustain the complex riverine and riparian ecological functions and processes that support native biodiversity and provide myriad ecological services including maintaining water quality, recharging groundwater, and nutrient cycling (naiman et al. 2002) . facing an ominous future of increasingly severe watersupply shortages in many areas of the world, social planners and government leaders are exploring strategies for ensuring that enough water of sufficient quality is available for use by future generations. human demands for water are expected to increase under a warmer climate, exacerbating current management problems. increasing demands for irrigation and industrial cooling water could conflict with the increasing demands for municipal water supplies resulting from urban growth. climate-induced changes to water availability and increasing human demand for water are likely to prompt the construction or modification of dams and reservoirs to improve storage capacity and enhance water security (wcd 2000; palmer 2008 ). for instance, by storing water in reservoirs, water managers capture high flows during wet years or seasons to supplement water supplies at drier times, thereby maximizing the reliability of water supplies and certain economic benefits each year. for regions where increases in runoff variability or more prolonged drought conditions are associated with climate change, the pressure to build watersupply reservoirs will be great. although the construction of additional dams and reservoirs will undoubtedly provide many societal benefits, a rich body of scientific knowledge has shown that river regulation also causes considerable ecological damage and the loss of important ecosystem services valued by society (baron et al. 2002; postel and richter 2003) . river ecosystem health deteriorates when natural flows of water, sediments, and organic materials through a river system are substantially disrupted or modified by human activities (poff et al. 1997; richter et al. 2003) . river damming and associated environmental alteration is now widely recognized as a leading cause of declines in freshwater biodiversity globally (bunn and arthington 2002) . dams have also been implicated in the loss of commercial fisheries in many estuaries and coastal areas, and in the degradation of other natural ecosystem products and services worldwide (wcd 2000) . in addition, reservoirs increase the loss of water due to evaporation. finally, as mentioned above, reservoirs emit substantial quantities of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere (st. louis et al. 2000) , and therefore, the creation of additional reservoirs is likely to further promote climate change. in many regions, impending water shortages will also lead to greater interest in desalination as a technique for tapping into the vast and infinitely tempting water supplies of the sea. recent improvements in reverse osmosis technology, coupled with the rising cost and increasing unreliability of traditional water supplies both currently and projected in the future, are making desalination a water-supply option with major plants in operation, in planning, or under consideration in europe, north africa, north america, australia, china, and india. like most large-scale industrial processes, making water has a number of actual or potential impacts on aquatic goods and services (wwf 2007) . emerging issues include significant cost and pollution emitted by desalination plants and the mostly unknown, but potentially substantially, effects on freshwater and coastal ecosystems. intake pipes can remove larvae and small marine organisms, and discharge from desalination plants can elevate levels of salt and other constituents of seawater such as boron; dead sea life, which consumes oxygen while decomposing; chemicals added to change the composition of the water for processing, as well as reducing contamination and clogging of filters and membranes; corrosion byproducts; and the heat added for or during processing. finally, water manufacturing is an energy-intensive process. although increasing ghg concentrations and the resulting increasing temperatures are global phenomena, the globe will often be an inappropriate scale for developing mitigation and adaptation strategies. human activities generate differential risks and vulnerabilities that vary with location due to differences in social, political, cultural, and economic conditions (beck 1992) . although, in one sense, all people are vulnerable to catastrophic climate change, at another more fundamental level, the risk of climate change impacts (along with blame and responsibility) are unevenly distributed. we can begin to think of the unequal distribution of the vulnerability to climate change as a scale issue. mitigation and adaptation strategies can be applied at multiple, and often overlapping, scales. at the finest scale, the development of mitigation strategies will depend on local leadership and the attitudes of local populations and individuals toward climate change. at national and international levels, mitigation efforts will be organized through large and formal programs and institutions (e.g., un-redd). although some adaptation strategies will be national and international in nature, much adaptation will take place at finer scales of communities and regions. a hallmark of climate change as a global phenomenon is that leadership and coordination across local, national, and international scales is important for ameliorating its effects. in turn, coordination across scales will entail understanding local climate risks and local and regional understandings of the causes of climate change and the costs and benefits of different mitigation and adaptation strategies. the effectiveness of any mitigation or adaptation strategy (building codes, population planning, dietary changes, etc.) depends on its acceptance in local, regional, and national communities. social impediments to adoption of climate change strategies include ideological outlooks, structural constraints, and cultural barriers. for example, free-market ideologies can impede the ability of governments to invest in alternative energies; agricultural subsidies and corporate monopolies on agricultural inputs may create structural barriers to alternative agriculture; and cultural norms for relative water and energy use, family size, or the flavor and texture of food can inhibit conservation of resources and changes in diet. there is a clear disparity between societies that have contributed the most to ghg emissions and those that will likely suffer the direst consequences of climate change. at the international level, efforts to shift blame from the activities of the rich to the actions of the poor have been used to shirk the responsibility to mitigate climate change and to impede the development of global mitigation strategies. the dispute between the global north and south over who caused climate change and who must now take responsibility for mitigation is by now well known. countries in the global south argue that northern countries have already developed their economies relying on fossil fuel consumption and now, when it is their turn to develop, they are asked to put restrictions on their energy consumption and natural resource use. meanwhile, the united states has used the reluctance of developing countries to cap emissions as an excuse for inaction on its part. mitigation and adaptation activities that do not take globally inequalities in wealth, resources, and adaptive capacity into account, or insist on 'equality' in action in a demonstrably unequal world cannot be effective. addressing population growth clearly plays a key role in both mitigation and adaptation strategies. however, focusing on population size while ignoring global patterns in the consumption of resources and the distribution of wealth will result in failed policies and strategies. the world's human population is approaching 7 ã� 10 9 , and a growing population inevitably means greater demand for the numerous goods and services supported by terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. while the availability of resources has seemingly stretched beyond the direst predictions of several decades ago, the crisis of overconsumptionnamely, of coal and other fossil fuels that produce ghgs and contribute to climate changeis simultaneously becoming clearer. while trends over the past several decades suggest that population growth is a significant driver of co 2 emissions (bongaarts 1992; dietz and rosa 1997) , it is also true that urbanization, aging, and changes in household size similarly affect energy use and emissions (mackeller et al. 1995; cole and neumayer 2004) . particular point sources of ghg emissions from energy consumption in developed countries, like the internationally managed oil fields of nigeria or emissions from the recent iraq war, which since 2003 has released over 140 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, the equivalent of adding 25 million new cars to american roads (reisch and kretzmann 2008) , should bear at least as much scrutiny as the desires of third world women and men to bear children. an overarching emphasis on population detracts from a nuanced understanding of the multiple drivers of ghg emissions. it will be ineffective to focus on the effects of climate change on ecosystems without considering the concurrent effects on human well-being and vice versa. disparities in climate change risk and human health often overlap, and human health and environmental health are intricately intertwined. although diseases are often approached as singular phenomena, good models exist that demonstrate the interactive effects of multiple morbidity factors on health outcomes and disease trajectories. for example, interactions between acquired immune deficiency syndrome and tuberculosis, or diabetes and severe acute respiratory syndrome, have synergistic impacts on patients that must be understood together. likewise, social attributes, like poverty or exposure to racism, interact with disease conditions to increase the damaging effects of disease. such interactions have the potential to influence the effects of climate change on disease movement and clustering, disease interactions, and the impact of climate change on global health (baer and singer 2008) . human action and human vulnerability to such interactions between climate, disease, and the environment are structured by social and economic inequality, and thus mitigation and adaptation strategies will need to take these inequalities into account. what is clear from a social and political perspective on mitigation and adaptation is that no one set of mitigation or adaptation strategies will be 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economics of climate change. hm treasury. un human settlements programme energy information administration global threats to human water security and river biodiversity adapting landscapes to climate change: examples of climateproof ecosystem networks and priority adaptation zones ecological optimization and adaptive management dam reoperation in an era of climate change dams and development: a new framework for decision-making climate change, biodiversity and the urban environment: a critical review based on london statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: a comparison of methods planning for climate change: identifying minimum-dispersal corridors for the cape proteaceae wind power implementation: the nature of public attitudes: equity and fairness instead of 'backyard motives climate change mitigation and transport in developing nations making water -desalination: option or distraction for a thirsty world? world wildlife fund a diazotrophic, indole-3-acetic acid-producing endophyte from wild cottonwood we thank the global health and environment faculty fellows at the university of washington as well as thomas hinckley, richard fenske, judith wasserheit, and tikvah weiner for valuable discussions and support. key: cord-021081-yqu1ykc9 authors: nan title: early warning systems a state of the art analysis and future directions date: 2012-11-02 journal: nan doi: 10.1016/j.envdev.2012.09.004 sha: doc_id: 21081 cord_uid: yqu1ykc9 nan united nations' international strategy for disaster reduction (isdr), it integrates (united nations, 2006) : 1. risk knowledge: risk assessment provides essential information to set priorities for mitigation and prevention strategies and designing early warning systems. 2. monitoring and predicting: systems with monitoring and predicting capabilities provide timely estimates of the potential risk faced by communities, economies and the environment. 3. disseminating information: communication systems are needed for delivering warning messages to the potentially affected locations to alert local and regional governmental agencies. the messages need to be reliable, synthetic and simple to be understood by authorities and the public. 4. response: coordination, good governance and appropriate action plans are key points in effective early warning. likewise, public awareness and education are critical aspects of disaster mitigation. failure of any part of the system will imply failure of the whole system. for example, accurate warnings will have no impact if the population is not prepared or if the alerts are received but not disseminated by the agencies receiving the messages. the basic idea behind early warning is that the earlier and more accurately we are able to predict short-and long term potential risks associated with natural and human induced hazards, the more likely we will be able to manage and mitigate a disaster's impact on society, economies, and environment. environmental hazards can be associated with: ongoing and rapid/sudden-onset threats and slow-onset (or ''creeping'') threats: 1. ongoing and rapid/sudden-onset: these include such hazards as follows: accidental oil spills, nuclear plant failures, and chemical plant accidents -such as inadvertent chemical releases to the air or into rivers and water bodies -geological hazards and hydro-meteorological hazards (except droughts). 2. slow-onset (or ''creeping''): incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes that usually receive little attention in their early phases but which, over time, may cause serious crises. these include such issues as deteriorating air and water quality, soil pollution, acid rain, climate change, desertification processes (including soil erosion and land degradation), drought, ecosystems change, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, nitrogen overloading, radioactive waste, coastal erosion, pressures on living marine resources, rapid and unplanned urban growth, environment and health issues (emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases and links to environmental change), land cover/land changes, and environmental impacts of conflict, among others. such creeping changes are often left unaddressed as policy-makers choose or need to cope with immediate crises. eventually, neglected creeping changes may become urgent crises that are more costly to deal with. slow-onset threats can be classified into location-specific environmental threats, new emerging science and contemporary environmental threats (table 1) . rapid/sudden-onset and slow-onset events will provide different amounts of available warning time. fig. 1 shows warning times for climatic hazards. early warning systems may provide seconds of available warning time for earthquakes to months of warning for droughts, which are the quickest and slowest onset hazards, respectively. specifically, early warning systems provide tens of seconds of warning for earthquakes, days to hours for volcanic eruptions, and hours for tsunamis. tornado warnings provide minutes of lead-time for response. hurricane warning time varies from weeks to hours. the warning time provided by warning systems, increases to years or even decades of leadtime available for slow-onset threats (such as el niñ o, global warming etc., as shown in fig. 1 ). drought warning time is in the range of months to weeks. slow-onset (or creeping) changes may cause serious problems to environment and society, if preventive measures are not taken when needed. such creeping environmental changes require effective early warning technologies due to the high potential impact of incremental cumulative changes on society and the environment. (golnaraghi, 2005) . the graph shows the timeliness of early warning systems for hydrometeorological hazards and the area of impact (by specifying the diameter of the spherical area) for climatic hazards. early warning systems help to reduce economic losses and mitigate the number of injuries or deaths from a disaster, by providing information that allows individuals and communities to protect their lives and property. early warning information empowers people to take action prior to a disaster. if well integrated with risk assessment studies and communication and action plans, early warning systems can lead to substantive benefits. effective early warning systems embrace the following aspects: risk analysis; monitoring and predicting location and intensity of the disaster; communicating alerts to authorities and to those potentially affected; and responding to the disaster. the early warning system has to address all aspects. monitoring and predicting is only one part of the early warning process. this step provides the input information for the early warning process that needs to be disseminated to those whose responsibility is to respond (fig. 2) . early warnings may be disseminated to targeted users (local early warning applications) or broadly to communities, regions or to media (regional or global early warning applications). this information gives the possibility of taking action to initiate mitigation or security measures before a catastrophic event occurs. when monitoring and predicting systems are associated with communication systems and response plans, they are considered early warning systems (glantz, 2003) . commonly, however, early warning systems lack one or more elements. in fact, a review of existing early warning systems shows that in most cases communication systems and adequate response plans are missing. to be effective, warnings also must be timely so as to provide enough lead-time for responding; reliable, so that those responsible for responding to the warning will feel confident in taking action; and simple, so as to be understood. timeliness often conflicts with the desire to have reliable predictions, which become more accurate as more observations are collected from the monitoring system . thus, there is an inevitable trade-off between the amount of warning time available and the reliability of the predictions provided by the ews. an initial alert signal may be sent to give the maximum amount of warning time when a minimum level of prediction accuracy has been reached. however, the prediction accuracy for the location and size of the event will continue to improve as more data are collected by the monitoring system part of the ews network. it must be understood that every prediction, by its very nature, is associated with uncertainty. because of the uncertainties associated with the predicted parameters that characterize the incoming disaster, it is possible that a wrong decision may be made. two kinds of wrong decisions may occur : missed alarm (or false negative), when the mitigation action is not taken when it should have been or false alarm (or false positive), when the mitigation action is taken when it should not have been. finally, the message should communicate the level of uncertainty and expected cost of taking action but also be stated in simple language so as to be understood by those who receive it. most often, there is a communication gap between ew specialists who use technical and engineering language and the ews users, who are generally outside of the scientific community. to avoid this, these early warnings need to be reported concisely, in layman's terms and without scientific jargon. an effective early warning system needs an effective communication system. early warning communication systems have two main components (second international conference on early warning (ewcii), 2003): communication infrastructure hardware that must be reliable and robust, especially during the disaster; and appropriate and effective interactions among the main actors of the early warning process, such as the scientific community, stakeholders, decision-makers, the public, and the media. redundancy of communication systems is essential for disaster management, while emergency power supplies and back-up systems are critical in order to avoid the collapse of communication systems after disasters occur. in addition, to ensure the communication systems operate reliably and effectively during and after a disaster occurs, and to avoid network congestion, frequencies and channels must be reserved and dedicated to disaster relief operations. many communication tools are currently available for warning dissemination, such as short message service (sms) (cellular phone text messaging), e-mail, radio, tv and web service. information and communication technology (ict) is a key element in early warning, which plays an important role in disaster communication and disseminating information to organizations in charge of responding to warnings and to the public during and after a disaster (tubtiang, 2005) . today, the decentralization of information and data through the world wide web makes it possible for millions of people worldwide to have easy, instantaneous access to a vast amount of diverse online information. this powerful communication medium has spread rapidly to interconnect our world, enabling near-real-time communication and data exchanges worldwide. according to the internet world stats database, as of december 2011, global documented internet usage was 2.3 billion people. thus, the internet has become an important medium to access and deliver information worldwide in a very timely fashion. in addition, remote sensing satellites now provide a continuous stream of data. they are capable of rapidly and effectively detecting hazards, such as transboundary air pollutants, wildfires, deforestation, changes in water levels, and natural hazards. with rapid advances in data collection, analysis, visualization and dissemination, including technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems (gis), web mapping, sensor webs, telecommunications and ever-growing internet connectivity, it is now feasible to deliver relevant information on a regular basis to a worldwide audience relatively inexpensively. in recent years, commercial companies such as google, yahoo, and microsoft have started incorporating maps and satellite imagery into their products and services, delivering compelling visual images and providing easy tools that everyone can use to add to their geographic knowledge. ews: decision making procedure based on cost-benefit analysis. to improve the performance of ews, a performance based decision making procedure needs to be based on the expected consequences of taking action, in terms of the probability of a false and missed alarm. an innovative approach sets the threshold based on the acceptable probability of false (missed) alarms, from a cost-benefit analysis . consider the case of a ews decision making strategy based on raising the alarm if a critical severity level, a, is predicted to be exceeded at a site. the decision of whether to activate the alarm or not is based on the predicted severity of the event. a decision model that takes into account the uncertainty of the prediction and the consequences of taking action will be capable of controlling and reducing the incidence of false and missed alerts. the proposed decision making procedure intends to fill this gap. the ews will provide the user with a real-time prediction of the severity of the event,ŝðtþ, and its error, e tot ðtþ. during the course of the event, the increase in available data will improve prediction accuracy. the prediction and its uncertainty are updated as more data come in. the actual severity of the event, e tot , is unknown and may be defined by adding the prediction error to the predicted value,ŝ. the potential probability of false (missed) alarm is given by the probability of being less (greater) than the critical threshold; it becomes an actual probability of false (missed) alarm if the alarm is (not) raised: referring to the principle of maximum entropy (jaynes, 2003) , the prediction error is modelled by gaussian distribution, representing the most uninformative distribution possible due to lack of information. hence, at time t, the actual severity of the event, s, may be modelled with a gaussian distribution, having mean equal to the predictionŝðtþ and uncertainty equal to s tot ðtþ, that is the standard deviation of the prediction error e tot ðtþ. eqs. (1) and (2) may be written as : where f represents the gaussian cumulative distribution function. the tolerable level at which mitigation action should be taken can be determined from a cost-benefit analysis by minimizing the cost of taking action: where c save are the savings due to mitigation actions and c fa is the cost of false alert. note that the tolerable levels a and b sum up to one which directly exhibits the trade-off between the threshold probabilities that are tolerable for false and missed alarms. the methodology offers an effective approach for decision making under uncertainty focusing on user requirements in terms of reliability and cost of action. information is now available in a near-real-time mode from a variety of sources at global and local levels. in the coming years, the multi-scaled global information network will greatly improve thanks to new technological advances that facilitate the global distribution of data and information at all levels. globalization and rapid communication provides an unprecedented opportunity to catalyse effective action at every level by rapidly providing authorities and the general public with high-quality and scientifically credible information in a timely fashion. the dissemination of warnings often follows a cascade process, which starts at the international or national level and then moves outwards or downwards in scale to regional and community levels (twigg, 2003) . early warnings may activate other early warnings at different authoritative levels, flowing down in responsibility roles, although all are equally necessary for effective early warning. standard protocols play a fundamental role in addressing the challenge of effective coordination and data exchange among the actors in the early warning process and it aids in the process for warning communication and dissemination. the common alerting protocol (cap), really simple syndication (rss) and extensible markup language (xml) are examples of standard data interchange formats for structured information that can be applied to warning messages for a broad range of information management and warning dissemination systems. the advantage of standard format alerts is that they are compatible with all information systems, warning systems, media, and most importantly, with new technologies such as web services. cap, for example, defines a single standard message format for all hazards, which can activate multiple warning systems at the same time and with a single input. this guarantees consistency of warning messages and would easily replace specific application-oriented messages with a single multihazard message format. cap is compatible with all types of information systems and public alerting systems (including broadcast radio and television), public and private data networks, multi-lingual warning systems and emerging technologies such as internet web services and existing systems such as the us national emergency alert system and the national oceanic and atmospheric organization (noaa) weather radio. cap uses extensible markup language (xml), which contains information about the alert message, the specific hazard event, and appropriate responses, including the urgency of action to be taken, severity of the event, and certainty of the information. for early warning systems to be effective, it is essential that they be integrated into policies for disaster mitigation. good governance priorities include protecting the public from disasters through the implementation of disaster risk reduction policies. it is clear that natural phenomena cannot be prevented, but their human, socio-economic and environmental impacts can and should be minimized through appropriate measures, including risk and vulnerability reduction strategies, early warning, and appropriate action plans. most often, these problems are given attention during or immediately after a disaster. disaster risk reduction measures require long term plans and early warning should be seen as a strategy to effectively reduce the growing vulnerability of communities and assets. the information provided by early warning systems enables authorities and institutions at various levels to immediately and effectively respond to a disaster. it is crucial that local government, local institutions, and communities be involved in the entire policy-making process, so they are fully aware and prepared to respond with short and long-term action plans. the early warning process, as previously described, is composed of 4 main stages: risk assessment, monitoring and predicting, disseminating and communicating warnings, and response. within this framework, the first phase, when short-and long-term actions plans are laid out based on risk assessment analysis, is the realm of institutional and political actors. then ew acquires a technical dimension in the monitoring and predicting phase, while in the communication phase, ew involves both technical and institutional responsibility. the response phase then involves many more sectors, such as national and local institutions, non-governmental organizations, communities, and individuals. below is a summary of recommendations for effective decision making within the early warning process (sarevitz et al., 2000) . prediction efforts by the scientific community alone are insufficient for decision making. the scientific community and policy-makers should outline the strategy for effective and timely decision making by indicating what information is needed by decision-makers, how predictions will be used, how reliable the prediction must be to produce an effective response, and how to communicate this information and the tolerable prediction uncertainty so that the information can be received and understood by authorities and public. a miscommunicated or misused prediction can result in costs to society. prediction, communication, and use of the information are necessary factors in effective decision making within the early warning process. wishing not to appear ''alarmist'' or to avoid criticism, local and national governments have sometimes kept the public in the dark when receiving technical information regarding imminent threats. the lack of clear and easy-to-use information can sometimes confuse people and undermine their confidence in public officials. conversely, there are quite a few cases where the public may have refused to respond to early warnings from authorities, and have therefore exposed themselves to danger or forced governments to impose removal measures. in any case, clear and balanced information is critical, even when some level of uncertainty remains. for this reason, the information's uncertainty level must be communicated to users together with the early warning . resources must be allocated wisely and priorities should be set, based on risk assessment, for long-and short-term decision making, such as investing in local early warning systems, education, or enhanced monitoring and observational systems. in addition, decision-makers need to be able to set priorities for timely and effective response to a disaster when it occurs based on the information received from the early warning system. decision-makers should receive necessary training on how to use the information received when an alert is issued and what that information means. institutional networks should be developed with clear responsibilities. complex problems such as disaster mitigation and response require multidisciplinary research, multi-sector policy and planning, multi-stakeholder participation, and networking involving all the participants of the process, such as the scientific research community (including social sciences aspects), land use planning, environment, finance, development, education, health, energy, communications, transportation, labour, and social security and national defence. decentralization in the decision making process could lead to optimal solutions by clarifying local government and community responsibilities. collaboration will improve efficiency, credibility, accountability, trust, and costeffectiveness. this collaboration consists of joint research projects, sharing information and participatory strategic planning and programming. because there are numerous actors involved in early warning response plans (such as governing authorities, municipalities, townships, and local communities), the decision making and legal framework of responsibilities should be set up in advance in order to be prepared when a disaster occurs. hurricane katrina in 2005 showed gaps in the legal frameworks and definition of responsibilities that exacerbated the disaster. such ineffective decision making must be dealt with to avoid future disasters such as the one in new orleans. earth observation (eo), through measuring and monitoring, provides an insight and understanding into earth's complex processes and changes. eo includes measurements that can be made directly or by sensors in-situ or remotely (i.e. satellite remote sensing, aerial surveys, land or oceanbased monitoring systems, fig. 3 ), to provide key information to models or other tools to support decision making processes. eo assists governments and civil society to identify and shape corrective and new measures to achieve sustainable development through original, scientifically valid assessments and early warning information on the recent and potential long-term consequences of human activities on the biosphere. at a time when the world community is striving to identify the impacts of human actions on the planet's life support system, time sequenced satellite images help to determine these impacts and provide unique, visible and scientifically convincing evidence that human actions are causing substantial changes to the earth's environment and natural resource base (i.e. ecosystems changes, urban growth, transboundary pollutants, loss of wetlands, etc.). by enhancing the visualization of scientific information on environmental change, satellite imagery will enhance environmental management and raise the awareness of emerging environmental threats. eo provides the opportunity to explore, to discover, and to understand the world in which we live from the unique vantage point of space. the following section discusses the potential role of eo for each type of environmental threat. 2.1. ongoing and rapid/sudden-onset environmental threats 2.1.1. oil spills earth observation is increasingly used to detect illegal marine discharges and oil spills. infra-red (ir) video and photography from airborne platforms, thermal infrared imaging, airborne laser fluorosensors, airborne and satellite optical sensors, as well as airborne and satellite synthetic aperture radar (sar) are used for this purpose. sar has the advantage of also providing data during cloud cover conditions and darkness, unlike optical sensors. in addition, optical-sensor techniques applied to oil spills detection are associated to a high number of false alarms, more often cloud shadows, sun glint, and other conditions such as precipitation, fog, and the amounts of daylight present also may be erroneously associated with oil spills. for this reason, sar is preferred over optical sensors, especially when spills cover vast areas of the marine environment, and when the oil cannot be seen or discriminated against the background. sar detects changes in sea-surface roughness patterns modified by oil spills. the largest shortcoming of oil spills detection using sar images is accurate discrimination between oil spills and natural films (brekke and soldberg, 2005) . to date, operational application of satellite imagery for oil spill detection still remains a challenge due to limited spatial and temporal resolution. in addition, processing times are often too long for operational purposes, and it is still not possible to measure the thickness of the oil spill (mansor et al., 2007; us fig. 3 . illustration of multiple observing systems in use on the ground, at sea, in the atmosphere and from space for monitoring and researching the climate system (wmo, 2011). interior, minerals management service, 2007) . existing applications are presented in the section 3. chemical and nuclear accidents may have disastrous consequences, such as the 1984 accident in bhopal, india, which killed more than 2000 and injured about 150 000, and the 1986 explosion of the reactors of the nuclear power plant in chernobyl, ukraine, which was the worst such accident to date, affecting part of the soviet union, eastern europe, scandinavia, and later, western europe. meteorological factors such as wind speed and direction, turbulence, stability layers, humidity, cloudiness, precipitation and topographical features, influence the impact of chemical and nuclear accidents and have to be taken into account in decision models. in some cases, emergencies are localized while in others, transport processes are most important. eo provides key data for monitoring and forecasting the dispersion and spread of the substance. geohazards associated with geological processes such as earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions are mainly controlled by ground deformation. eo data allows monitoring of key physical parameters associated with geohazards, such as deformation, plate movements, seismic monitoring, baseline topographic, and geoscience mapping. eo products are useful for detection and mitigation before the event, and for damage assessment during the aftermath. for geohazards, stereo optical and radar interferometry associated with ground-based global positioning system (gps) and seismic networks are used. for volcanic eruptions additional parameters are observed such as temperature and gas emissions. ground based measurements have the advantage of being continuous in time but have limited spatial extent, while satellite observations cover wide areas but are not continuous in time. these data need to be integrated for an improved and more comprehensive approach (committee on earth observation satellites (ceos), 2002; integrated global observing strategy (igos-p), 2003). earthquakes are due to a sudden release of stresses accumulated around the faults in the earth's crust. this energy is released through seismic waves that travel from the origin zone, which cause the ground to shake. severe earthquakes can affect buildings and populations. the level of damage depends on many factors, such as the intensity and depth of the earthquake, and the vulnerability of structures and their distance from the earthquake's origin. for earthquakes, information on the location and magnitude of the event first needs to be conveyed to responsible authorities. this information is used by seismic early warning systems to activate security measures within seconds after the earthquake's origin and before strong shaking occurs at the site. shakemaps generated within five minutes provide essential information to assess the intensity of ground shaking and the damaged areas. the combination of data from seismic networks and gps may help to increase reliability and timeliness of this information. earthquake frequency and probability shakemaps based on historical seismicity and base maps (geological, soil type, active faults, hydrological, and dems), assist in the earthquake mitigation phase and need to be included in the building code design process for improved land use and building practices. for responses, additional data are needed, such as seismicity, intensity, strain, dems, soil type, moisture conditions, infrastructure and population, to produce post-event damage maps. thermal information needs to continuously be monitored. this is obtained from low/medium resolution ir imagery from polar and geostationary satellites for thermal background characterization (advanced very high resolution radiometer (avhrr), atsr, modis and goes) together with deformation from edm and/or gps network; borehole strainmetres; and sar interferometry. landslides are displacements of earth, rock, and debris caused by heavy rains, floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, and wildfires. useful information for landslides and ground instability include the following: hazard zonation maps (landslides, debris flows, rockfalls, subsidence, and ground instability scenarios) during the mitigation phase, associated with landlside inventories, dem, deformation (gps network; sar interferometry; other surveys such as leveling, laser scanning, aerial, etc.), hydrology, geology, soil, geophysical, geotechnical, climatic, seismic zonation maps, land cover, land use, and historical archives. forecasting the location and extent of ground instability or landslides is quite challenging. landslides can be preceded by cracks, accelerating movement, and rock fall activity. real-time monitoring of key parameters thus becomes essential. the observed acceleration, deformation or displacement, exceeding a theoretical pre-fixed threshold is the trigger for issuing an alert signal. an alternative approach is based on hydrologic forecasting. it should be said that for large areas site-specific monitoring is not feasible. in this case, hazard mapping associated with monitoring of high risk zones remains the best option for warning. local rapid mapping of affected areas, updated scenarios and real-time monitoring (deformation, seismic data, and weather forecasts) assist during the response phase. a tsunami is a series of ocean waves generated by sudden displacements in the sea floor, landslides, or volcanic activity. although a tsunami cannot be prevented, the impact of a tsunami can be mitigated through community preparedness, timely warnings, and effective response. observations of seismic activity, sea floor bathymetry, topography, sea level data (tide gauge observations of sea height; real-time tsunami warning buoy data; deep ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (dart) buoys and sea-level variations from the topex/poseidon and jason, the european space agency's envisat, and the us navy's geosat follow-on), are used in combination with tsunami models to create inundation and evacuation maps and to issue tsunami watches and warnings. volcanic eruptions may be mild, releasing steam and gases or lava flows, or they can be violent explosions that release ashes and gases into the atmosphere. volcanic eruptions can destroy land and communities living in their path, affect air quality, and even influence the earth's climate. volcanic ash can impact aviation and communications. data needs for volcanic eruptions include hazard zonation maps, real-time seismic, deformation (electronic distance measurement (edm) and/or gps network; leveling and tilt networks; borehole strainmeters; gravity surveys; sar interferometry), thermal (landsat, aster, geostationary operational environmental satellites (goes), modis); air borne ir cameras; medium-high resolution heat flux imagery and gas emissions (cospec, licor surveys); satellite imagery (i.e., aster) and digital elevation maps (dem). as soon as the volcanic unrest initiates, information needs to be timely and relatively high-resolution. once the eruption starts, the flow of information has to speed up. seismic behaviour and deformation patterns need to be observed throughout the eruption especially to detect a change of eruption site (3-6 seismometers ideally with 3-directional sensors; a regional network). hydro-meteorological hazards include the wide variety of meteorological, hydrological and climate phenomena that can pose a threat to life, property and the environment. these types of hazards are monitored using the meteorological, or weather, satellite programs, beginning in the early 1960s. in the united states, nasa, noaa, and the department of defense (dod) have all been involved with developing and operating weather satellites. in europe, esa and eumetsat (european organisation for the exploitation of meteorological satellites) operate the meteorological satellite system (us centennial of flight commission). data from geostationary satellite and polar microwave derived products (goes) and polar orbiters (microwave data from the defense meteorological satellite program (dmsp), special sensor microwave/imager (ssm/i), noaa/advanced microwave sounding unit (amsu), and tropical rainfall measuring mission (trmm)) are key in weather analysis and forecasting. goes has the capability of observing the atmosphere and its cloud cover from the global scale down to the storm scale, frequently and at high resolution. microwave data are available on only an intermittent basis, but are strongly related to cloud and atmospheric properties. is key for monitoring meteorological processes from the global scale to the synoptic scale to the mesoscale and finally to the storm scale. (scofield et al., 2002) . goes and poes weather satellites provide useful information on precipitation, moisture, temperature, winds and soil wetness, which is combined with ground observation. floods are often triggered by severe storms, tropical cyclones, and tornadoes. the number of floods has continued to rise steadily; together with droughts, they have become the most deadly disasters over the past decades. the increase in losses from floods is also due to climate variability, which has caused increased precipitation in parts of the northern hemisphere (natural hazards working group, 2005) . floods can be deadly, particularly when they arrive without warning. in particular, polar orbital and geostationary satellite data are used for flood observation. polar orbital satellites include optical low (avhrr), medium (landsat, spot, irs) and high resolution (ikonos) and microwave sensors (high (sar-radarsat, jers and ers) and low resolution passive sensors (ssmi). meteorological satellites include goes 8 and 10, meteosat, gms, the indian insat and the russian goms; and polar orbitals such as noaa (noaa 15) and ssmi. for storms, additional parameters are monitored, such as sea surface temperature, air humidity, surface wind speed, rain estimates (from dmsp/ssmi, trmm, ers, quikscat, avhrr, radarsat). trmm offers unique opportunities to examine tropical cyclones. with trmm, scientists are able to make extremely precise radar measurements of tropical storms over the oceans and identify their intensity variations, providing invaluable insights into the dynamics of tropical storms and rainfall. epidemics such as malaria and meningitis are linked to environmental factors. satellite data can provide essential information on these factors and help to better understand diseases. as an example, the esa epidemio project, launched in 2004, utilizes data from esa's envisat or the french space agency's spot, and field data to gather information on the spread of epidemics, helping to better prepare for epidemic outbreaks. geo, with who and other partners, are working together on the meningitis environmental risk information technologies (merit) project to better understand the relationship between meningitis and environmental factors using remote sensing. wildfires pose a threat to lives and properties and are often connected to secondary effects such as landslides, erosion, and changes in water quality. wildfires may be natural processes, human induced for agriculture purposes, or just the result of human negligence. wildfire detection using satellite technologies is possible thanks to significant temperature difference between the earth's surface (usually not exceeding 10-25 1c) and the heat of fire (300-900 1c), which results in a thousand times difference in heat radiation generated by these objects. noaa (avhrr radiometer with 1100 m spatial resolution and 3000 km swath width) and earth observing satellites (eos) (terra and aqua satellites with modis radiometer installed on them with 250, 500 and 1000 m spatial resolution and 2330 km swath width) are the most widely used modern satellites for operative fire monitoring (klaver et al., 1998) . high-resolution sensors, such as the landsat thematic mapper, spot multispectral scanner, or national oceanic and atmospheric administration's avhrr or modis, are used for fire potential definition. sensors used for fire detection and monitoring include avhrr, which has a thermal sensor and daily overflights, the defense meteorological satellite program's optical linescan system (ols) sensor, which has daily overflights and operationally collects visible images during its nighttime pass, and the modis land rapid response system. avhrr and higher resolution images (spot, landsat, and radar) can be used to assess the extent and impact of the fire. smog is the product of human and natural activities, such as industry, transportation, wildfires, volcanic eruptions, etc. and can have serious effects on human health and the environment. a variety of eo tools are available to monitor air quality. the national aeronautics and space administration (nasa) and the european space agency (esa) both have instruments to monitor air quality. the canadian mopitt (measurements of pollution in the troposphere) aboard the terra satellite monitors the lower atmosphere to observe how it interacts with the land and ocean biospheres, distribution, transport, sources, and sinks of carbon monoxide and methane in the troposphere. the total ozone mapping spectrometer (toms) instrument measures the total amount of ozone in a column of atmosphere as well as cloud cover over the entire globe. additionally, toms measures the amount of solar radiation escaping from the top of the atmosphere to accurately estimate the amount of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the earth's surface. the ozone monitoring instrument (omi) on aura will continue the toms record for total ozone and other atmospheric parameters related to ozone chemistry and climate. the omi instrument distinguishes between aerosol types, such as smoke, dust, and sulphates, and can measure cloud pressure and coverage. esa's schiamachy (scanning imaging absorption spectro-meter for atmospheric chartography) maps atmosphere over a very wide wavelength range (240-2380 nm), which allows detection of trace gases, ozone and related gases, clouds and dust particles throughout the atmosphere (athena global, 2005) . the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (modis) sensor measures the relative amount of aerosols and the relative size of aerosol particles-solid or liquid particles suspended in the atmosphere. examples of such aerosols include dust, sea salts, volcanic ash, and smoke. the modis aerosol optical depth product is a measure of how much light airborne particles prevent from passing through a column of atmosphere. new technologies are also being explored for monitoring air quality, such as mobile phones equipped with simple sensors to empower citizens to collect and share real-time air quality measurements. this technology is being developed by a consortium called urban atmospheres. the traditional methods of monitoring coastal water quality require scientists to use boats to gather water samples, typically on a monthly basis because of the high costs of these surveys. this method captures episodic events affecting water quality, such as the seasonal freshwater runoff, but is not able to monitor and detect fast changes. satellite data provide measures of key indicators of water qualityturbidity and water clarity -to help monitor fast changes in factors that affect water quality, such as winds, tides and human influences including pollution and runoff. geoeye's sea-viewing wide field-ofview sensor (seawifs) instrument, launched aboard the orbview-2 satellite in 1997, collects ocean colour data used to determine factors affecting global change, particularly ocean ecology and chemistry. modis sensor, launched aboard the aqua satellite in 2002, together with its counterpart instrument aboard the terra satellite, collects measurements from the entire earth surface every 1-2 days and can also provide measurements of turbidity (bjorn-hansen, 2007) . overall, air and water quality monitoring coverage still appears to be irregular and adequate and available in real-time only for some contaminants (global earth observation system of systems, 2005). 2.2.3.1. droughts. noaa's national weather service (nws) defines a drought as ''a period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area.'' drought can be classified by using 4 different definitions: meteorological (deviation from normal precipitation); agricultural (abnormal soil moisture conditions); hydrological (related to abnormal water resources); and socio-economic (when water shortage impacts people's lives and economies). a comprehensive and integrated approach is required to monitor droughts, due to the complex nature of the problem. although all types of droughts originate from a precipitation deficiency, it is insufficient to monitor solely this parameter to assess severity and resultant impacts (world meteorological organization, 2006) . effective drought early warning systems must integrate precipitation and other climatic parameters with water information such as streamflow, snow pack, groundwater levels, reservoir and lake levels, and soil moisture, into a comprehensive assessment of current and future drought and water supply conditions (svoboda et al., 2002) . in particular, there are 6 key parameters that are used in a composite product developed from a rich information stream, including climate indices, numerical models, and the input of regional and local experts. these are as follows: 1) palmer drought severity index (based on precipitation data, temperature data, division constants (water capacity of the soil, etc.) and previous history of the indices). 2) soil moisture model percentile (calculated through a hydrological model that takes observed precipitation and temperature and calculates soil moisture, evaporation and runoff. the potential evaporation is estimated from observed temperature). 3) daily stream flow percentiles. 4) percent of normal precipitation. 5) standardized precipitation index, and 6) remotely sensed vegetation health index. additional indicators may include the palmer crop moisture index, keetch-byram drought index, fire danger index, evaporation-related observations such as relative humidity and temperature departure from normal, reservoir and lake levels, groundwater levels, field observations of surface soil moisture, and snowpack observations. some of these indices and indicators are computed for point locations, and others are computed for climate divisions, drainage (hydrological) basins, or other geographical regions (svoboda et al., 2002) . a complete list of drought products can be found on noaa's national environmental satellite, data, & information service (noaanesdis) web page. 2.2.3.2. desertification. desertification refers to the degradation of land in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas due to climatic variations or human activity. desertification can occur due to inappropriate land use, overgrazing, deforestation, and over-exploitation. land degradation affects many countries worldwide and has its greatest impact in africa. in spite of the potential benefits of eo information, the lack of awareness of the value and availability of information, inadequate institutional resources and financial problems are the most frequent challenges to overcome in detecting desertification (sarmap, 2003) . in 2004, through a project called desertwatch, esa has developed a set of indicators based principally on land surface parameters retrieved from satellite observations for monitoring land degradation and desertification. desertwatch is being tested and applied in mozambique, portugal, and brazil. the un food and agriculture organization's global information and early warning system (giews). these provide information on food availability, market prices and livelihoods. the observations of climate-related variables on a global scale have made it possible to document and analyse the behaviour of earth's climate, made available through programs as follows: the ioc-wmo-unep-icsu global ocean observing system (goos); the fao-wmo-unesco-unepicsu global terrestrial observing system (gtos); the wmo global observing system (gos) and global atmosphere watch (gaw); the research observing systems and observing systems research of the wmo-ioc-icsu world climate research programme (wcrp) and other climate relevant international programs; and wmo-unesco-icsuioc-unep global climate observing system (gcos). the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) periodically reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change. hundreds of scientists worldwide contribute to the preparation and review of these reports. according to the recent ipcc report, the atmospheric buildup of greenhouse gases is already shaping the earth's climate and ecosystems from the poles to the tropics, which face inevitable, possibly profound, alteration. the ipcc has predicted widening droughts in southern europe and the middle east, sub-saharan africa, the american southwest and mexico, and flooding that could imperil low-lying islands and the crowded river deltas of southern asia. it stressed that many of the regions facing the greatest risks are among the world's poorest. information about the impacts of climate variability impact information is needed by communities and resource managers to adapt and prepare for larger fluctuations as global climate change becomes more evident. this information includes evidence of changes occurring due to climate variability, such as loss of ecosystems, ice melting, coastal degradation, and severe droughts. such information will provide policy-makers scientifically valid assessment and early warning information on the current and potential long-term consequences of human activities on the environment. (i.e., ecosystem changes, loss of biodiversity and habitats, land cover/land changes, coastal erosion, urban growth, etc.). landsat satellites (series 1-7) are extensively used to monitor location-specific environmental changes. they have the great advantage of providing repetitive, synoptic, global coverage of high-resolution multi-spectral imagery (fadhil, 2006) . landsat can be used for change detection applications to identify differences in the state of an object or phenomenon by comparing the satellite imagery at different times. change detection is key in natural resources management (singh, 1989) . central to this theme is the characterization, monitoring and understanding of land cover and land use change, since they have a major impact on sustainable land use, biodiversity, conservation, biogeochemical cycles, as well as land-atmosphere interactions affecting climate and they are indicators of climate change, especially at a regional level (igos-p, 2004) . the united nations environment programme's (unep) bestselling publication one planet, many people: atlas of our changing environment, which shows before and after satellite photos to document changes to the earth's surface over the past 30 years, proves the importance and impact of visual evidence of environmental change in hotspots. the atlas contains some remarkable landsat satellite imagery and illustrates the alarming rate of environmental destruction. through the innovative use of some 271 satellite images, 215 ground photos and 66 maps, the atlas provides visual proof of global environmental changes -both positive and negative -resulting from natural processes and human activities. case studies include themes such as atmosphere, coastal areas, waters, forests, croplands, grasslands, urban areas, and tundra and polar regions. the atlas demonstrates how our growing numbers and our consumption patterns are shrinking our natural resource base. the aim of this report is to identify current gaps and future needs of early warning systems through the analysis of the state of the art of existing early warning and monitoring systems for environmental hazards. among existing early warning/monitoring systems, only systems that provide publicly accessible information and products have been included in the analysis. for the present study, several sources have been used, such as the global survey of early warning systems (united nations, 2006) together with the online inventory of early warning systems on isdr's platform for the promotion of early warning (ppew) website, and several additional online sources, technical reports and scientific articles listed in the references. for each hazard type, a gap analysis has been carried out to identify critical aspects and future needs of ews, considering aspects such as geographical coverage, and essential ews elements such as monitoring and prediction capability, communication systems and application of early warning information in responses. below is the outcome of the review of existing early warning/monitoring systems for each hazard type. details of all systems, organized in tables by hazard type, are listed in the appendix. the current gaps identified for each hazard type could be related to technological, organizational, communication or geographical coverage aspects. to assess the geographical coverage of existing systems for each hazard type, the existing systems have been imposed on the hazard's risk map. for this analysis, the maps of risks of mortality and economic loss were taken from natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis, a report from the world bank (dilley et al., 2005) . to detect operational oil spills, satellite overpasses and aerial surveillance flights need to be used in an integrated manner. in many countries in northern europe, the ksat manual approach is currently used to identify oil spills from the satellite images. ksat has provided this operational service since 1996, and in europe, use of satellites for oil spill detection is well established and well integrated within the national and regional oil pollution surveillance and response chains. operational algorithms utilizing satellite-borne c-band sar instruments (radarsat-1, envisat, radarsat-2) are also being developed for oil-spill detection in the baltic sea area. releases of a hazardous substance from industrial accidents can have immediate adverse effects on human and animal life or the environment. wmo together with iaea provides specialized meteorological support to environmental emergency response related to nuclear accidents and radiological emergencies. the wmo network of eight specialized numerical modelling centres called regional specialized meteorological centres (rsmcs) provides predictions of the movement of contaminants in the atmosphere. the inter-agency committee on the response to nuclear accidents (iacrna) of the iaea, coordinates the international intergovernmental organizations responding to nuclear and radiological emergencies. iacrna members are: the european commission (ec), the european police office (europol), the food and agriculture organization of the united nations (fao), iaea, the international civil aviation organization (icao), the international criminal police organization (interpol), the nuclear energy agency of the organization for economic co-operation and development (oecd/nea), the pan american health organization (paho), unep, the united nations office for the co-ordination of humanitarian affairs (un-ocha), the united nations office for outer space affairs (unoosa), the world health organization (who), and wmo. the agency's goal is to provide support during incidents or emergencies by providing near real-time reporting of information through the following: the incident and emergency centre (iec), which maintains a 24 h oncall system for rapid initial assessment, and if needed, triggers response operations; the emergency notification and assistance convention website (enac), which allows the exchange of information on nuclear accidents or radiological emergencies; and the nuclear event webbased system (news), which provides information on all significant events in nuclear power plants, research reactors, nuclear fuel cycle facilities and occurrences involving radiation sources or the transport of radioactive material. the global chemical incident alert and response system of the international programme on chemical safety, which is part of who, focuses on disease outbreaks from chemical releases and also provides technical assistance to member states for response to chemical incidents and emergencies. formal and informal sources are used to collect information and if necessary, additional information and verification is sought through official channels: national authorities, who offices, who collaborating centres, other united nations agencies, and members of the communicable disease global outbreak alert and response network (goarn), internet-based resources, particularly the global public health intelligence network (gphin) and promed-mail. based on this information, a risk assessment is carried out to determine the potential impact and if assistance needs to be offered to member states. 3.1.3. geological hazards 3.1.3.1. earthquakes. earthquake early warning systems are a relatively new approach to seismic risk reduction. they provide a rapid estimate of seismic parameters such as magnitude and location associated with a seismic event based on the first seconds of seismic data registered at the epicentre. this information can then be used to predict ground motion parameters of engineering interest including peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration. earthquake warning systems are currently operational in mexico, japan, romania, taiwan and turkey (espinosa aranda et al., 1995; wu et al., 1998; wu and teng, 2002; odaka et al., 2003; kamigaichi, 2004; nakamura, 2004; horiuchi et al., 2005) . systems are under development for seismic risk mitigation in california and italy. local and national scale seismic early warning systems, which provide seismic information between a few seconds and tens of seconds before shaking occurs at the target site, are used for a variety of applications such as shutting down power plants, stopping trains, evacuating buildings, closing gas valves, and alerting wide segments of the population through the tv, among others. on the global scale, multi-national initiatives, such as the us geological survey (usgs) and geo-forschungs netz (geofon), operate global seismic networks for seismic monitoring but do not provide seismic early warning information. today, the usgs in cooperation with incorporated research institutions for seismology (iris) operates the global seismic networks (gsn), which comprises more than 100 stations providing free, real-time, open access data. geofon collects information from several networks and makes this information available to the public online. usgs earthquake notification service (ens) provides publicly available e-mail notification for earthquakes worldwide within 5minutes for earthquakes in us and within 30 min for events worldwide. usgs also provides near-real-time maps of ground motion and shaking intensity following significant earthquakes. this product, called shakemap, is being used for post-earthquake response and recovery, public and scientific information, as well as for preparedness exercises and disaster planning. effective early warning technologies for earthquakes are much more challenging to develop than for other natural hazards because warning times range from only a few seconds in the area close to a rupturing fault to a minute or so (heaton, 1985; allen and kanamori, 2003; kanamori, 2005) . several local and regional applications exist worldwide but no global system exists or could possibly exist for seismic early warning at global scale, due to timing constraints. earthquake early warning systems applications must be designed at the local or regional level. although various early warning systems exist worldwide at the local or regional scale, there are still high seismic risk areas that lack early warning applications, such as peru, chile, iran, pakistan, and india. the international consortium on landslides (icl), created at the kyoto symposium in january 2002, is an international non-governmental and non-profit scientific organization, which is supported by the united nations educational, scientific and cultural organization (unesco), the wmo, fao, and the united nations international strategy for disaster reduction (un/isdr). icl's mission is to promote landslide research for the benefit of society and the environment and promote a global, multidisciplinary programme regarding landslides. icl provides information about current landslides on its website, streaming this information from various sources such as the geological survey of canada. this information does not provide any early warning since it is based on news reports after the events have occurred. enhancing icl's existing organizational infrastructure by improving landslide prediction capability would allow icl to provide early warning to authorities and populations. technologies for slopes monitoring has greatly improved, but currently only few slopes are being monitored at a global scale. the use of these technologies would be greatly beneficial for mitigating losses from landslides worldwide. 3.1.3.3. tsunamis. the indian ocean tsunami of december 2004 killed 220 000 people and left 1.5 million homeless. it highlighted gaps and deficiencies in existing tsunami warning systems. in response to this disaster, in june 2005 the intergovernmental oceanographic commission (ioc) secretariat was mandated by its member states to coordinate the implementation of a tsunami warning system for the indian ocean, the northeast atlantic and mediterranean, and the caribbean. efforts to develop these systems are ongoing. since march 2011, the indonesian meteorological, climatological and geophysical agency has been operating the german-indonesian tsunami early warning system for the indian ocean. milestones, such as the development of the automatic data processing software and underwater communication for the transmission of pressure data from the ocean floor to a warning centre, have been reached. these systems will be part of the global ocean observing system (goos), which will be part of geoss. the pacific basin is monitored by the pacific tsunami warning system (ptws), which was established by 26 member states and is operated by the pacific tsunami warning center (ptwc), located near honolulu, hawaii. ptwc monitors stations throughout the pacific basin to issue tsunami warnings to member states, serving as the regional centre for hawaii and as a national and international tsunami information centre. it is part of the ptws effort. noaa national weather service operates ptwc and the alaska tsunami warning center (atwc) in palmer, alaska, which serves as the regional tsunami warning center for alaska, british columbia, washington, oregon, and california. ptws monitors seismic stations operated by ptwc, usgs and atwc to detect potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes. such earthquakes meet specific criteria for generation of a tsunami in terms of location, depth, and magnitude. ptws issues tsunami warnings to potentially affected areas, by providing estimates of tsunami arrival times and areas potentially most affected. if a significant tsunami is detected, the tsunami warning is extended to the pacific basin. the international tsunami information center (itic), under the auspices of ioc, aims to mitigate tsunami risk by providing guidance and assistance to improve education and preparedness. itic also provides a complete list of tsunami events worldwide. official tsunami bulletins are released by ptwc, atwc, and the japan meteorological agency (jma). regional and national tsunami information centres exist worldwide; the complete list is available from ioc. currently, no global tsunami warning system is in place. in addition, fully operational tsunami early warning systems are needed for the indian ocean and the caribbean. initial steps have been taken in this direction. in 2010, noaa established the caribbean tsunami warning program as the first step towards the development of a caribbean tsunami warning center. since 2005, steps have been taken to develop an indian ocean tsunami system, such as establishing 26 tsunami information centres and deploying 23 real-time sea level stations and 3 deep ocean buoys in countries bordering indian ocean. in 2005, the united states agency for international development (usaid) launched the us indian ocean tsunami warning systems program as the us government's direct contribution to the international effort led by the ioc. since then, there are ongoing activities, such as germany's 5-year german-indonesia tsunami early warning system program with indonesia, the tsunami regional trust fund established in 2005, and the united kingdom's tsunami funds reserved for early warning capacity building. nevertheless, on 17 july 2006, only one month after the announcement that the indian ocean's tsunami warning system was operational, a tsunami in java, indonesia, killed hundreds of people. on that day, tsunami warnings were issued to alert jakarta but there was not enough time to alert the coastal areas. the july 2006 tsunami disaster illustrates that there are still operational gaps to be solved in the indian ocean tsunami early warning system, notably in warning coastal communities on time. 3.1.3.4. volcanic eruptions. volcanic eruptions are always anticipated by precursor activities. in fact, seismic monitoring, ground deformation monitoring, gas monitoring, visual observations, and surveying are used to monitor volcanic activity. volcano observatories are distributed worldwide. a complete list of volcano observatories is available at the world organization of volcanic observatories (wovo) website. however, there is still a divide between developed and developing countries. in particular, a large number of observatories and research centres monitor volcanoes in japan and the united states very well. most central and south american countries (mexico, guatemala, el salvador, nicaragua, costa rica, colombia, ecuador, peru, chile, trinidad, and the antilles) have volcano observatories that provide public access to volcanic activity information. in africa, only two countries (congo and cameroon) have volcano monitoring observatories and they do not provide public access to information. only a small number, probably fewer than 50, of the world's volcanoes are well monitored, mostly due to inadequate resources in poor countries (national hazards working group, 2005) . there is a need to fill this gap by increasing the coverage of volcanic observatories. currently, there is no global early warning system for volcanic eruptions except for aviation safety. global volcanic activity information is provided by the smithsonian institution, which partners with the usgs under the global volcanism program to provide online access to volcanic activity information, collected from volcano observatories worldwide. reports and warnings are available on a daily basis. weekly and monthly summary reports are also available, but these only report changes in volcanic activity level, ash advisories, and news reports. the information is also available through google earth. this information is essential for the aviation sector, which must be alerted to ash-producing eruptions. there are several ash advisory centres distributed worldwide, in london, toulouse, anchorage, washington, montreal, darwin, wellington, tokyo, and buenos aires. however, there is a need to coordinate interaction and data sharing among the approximately 80 volcano observatories that make up wovo. esa is developing globvolcano, an information system to provide earth observations for volcanic risk monitoring. 3.1.3.5. wildfires. early warning methodologies for wildfires are based on the prediction of precursors, such as fuel loads and lightning danger. these parameters are relevant for triggering prediction, but once the fire has begun, fire behaviour and pattern modelling are fundamental for estimating fire propagation patterns. most industrial countries have ew capabilities in place, while most developing countries have neither fire early warning nor monitoring systems in place (goldammer et al., 2003) . local and regional scale fire monitoring systems are available for canada, south america, mexico and south africa. an interactive mapping service based on google maps and eo imagery from inpe, the brazilian space research institute, has been available since september 2008. individuals can contribute with information from the ground; in only 3 months the service has received 41 million reports on forest fires and illegal logging, making it one of the most successful web sites in brazil; it has had real impact through follow up legal initiatives and parliamentary enquiries. wildfire information is available worldwide through the global fire monitoring center (gfmc), a global portal for fire data products, information, and monitoring. this information is accessible to the public through the gfmc website but is not actively disseminated. the gfmc provides global fire products through a worldwide network of cooperating institutions. gfmc fire products include the following: fire danger maps and forecasts, which provide assessment of fire onset risk; near realtime fire events information; an archive of global fire information; and assistance and support in the case of a fire emergency. global fire weather forecasts are provided by the experimental climate prediction center (ecpc), which also provides national and regional scale forecasts. noaa provides experimental, potential fire products based on estimated intensity and duration of vegetation stress, which can be used as a proxy for assessment of potential fire danger. the webfire mapper, part of fao's global fire information management system (gfims), initially developed by the university of maryland and financially supported by nasa, provides near real-time information on active fires worldwide, detected by the modis rapid response system. the webfire mapper integrates satellite data with gis technologies for active fire information. this information is available to the public through the website and e-mail alerts. the european forest fire information system also provides information on current fire situations and forecasts for europe and the mediterranean area. although global scale fire monitoring systems exist, an internationally standardized approach is required to create a globally comprehensive early fire warning system. integration of existing fire monitoring systems could significantly improve fire monitoring and early warning capabilities. an information network must be developed to disseminate early warnings about wild-fire danger at both the global and local levels, to quickly detect and report fires, and to enhance rapid fire detection and classification capabilities at national and regional levels. the global early warning system for wild-fires, which is under development as part of the global earth observation system of systems (geoss) effort, will address these issues. 3.1.4.1. floods. among natural hazards that are currently increasing in frequency, floods are the deadliest. this study shows there is inadequate coverage of flood warning and monitoring systems, especially in developing or least developed countries such as china, india, bangladesh, nepal, west africa, and brazil. at the local scale, there are several stand-alone warning systems, for example, in guatemala, honduras, el salvador, nicaragua, zimbabwe, south africa, belize, czech republic, and germany. however, they do not provide public access to information. the european flood alert system (efas), which is an initiative by ec-jrc, provides information on the possibility of river flooding occurring within the next three days. efas also provides an overview of current floods based on information received from the national hydrological services and the global runoff data center in germany. floods are monitored worldwide from the dartmouth flood observatory, which provides public access to major flood information, satellite images and estimated discharge. orbital remote sensing (advanced scanning microradiometer (amsr-e and quickscat)) is used to detect and map major floods worldwide. satellite microwave sensors can monitor, at a global scale and on a daily basis, increases of floodplain water surface without cloud interference. the dartmouth flood observatory provides estimated discharge and satellite images of major floods worldwide but does not provide forecasts of flood conditions or precipitation amounts that could allow flood warnings to be issued days in advance of events. noaa provides observed hydrologic conditions of major us river basins and predicted values of precipitation for rivers in the united states. noaa also provides information on excessive rainfall that could lead to flash-flooding and if necessary warnings are issued within 6 h in advance. ifnet global flood alert system (gfas) uses global satellite precipitation estimates for flood forecasting and warning. the gfas website publishes useful public information for flood forecasting and warning, such as precipitation probability estimates, but the system is currently running on a trial basis. at a global scale, flood monitoring systems are more developed than flood early warning systems. for this reason, existing technologies for flood monitoring must be improved to increase prediction capabilities and flood warning lead times. 3.1.4.2. severe weather, storms and tropical cyclones. at the global level, the world weather watch (www) and hydrology and water resources programmes coordinated by wmo provide global collection, analysis and distribution of weather observations, forecasts and warnings. the www is composed of the global observing system (gos), which provides the observed meteorological data; the global telecommunications system (gts), which reports observations, forecasts and other products and the global data processing system (gdps), which provides weather analyses, forecasts and other products. the www is an operational framework of coordinated national systems, operated by national governments. the tropical cyclone programme (tcp) is also part of the www. tcp is in charge of issuing tropical cyclones and hurricanes forecasts, warnings and advisories, and seeks to promote and coordinate efforts to mitigate risks associated with tropical cyclones. tcp has established tropical cyclone committees that extend across regional bodies (regional specialized meteorological centres (rsmc)), which, together with national meteorological and hydrological services (nmhss), monitor tropical cyclones globally and issue official warnings to the regional meteorological services of countries at risk. regional bodies worldwide have adopted standardized wmo-tcp operational plans and manuals, which promote internationally accepted procedures in terms of units, terminology, data and information exchange, operational procedures, and telecommunication of cyclone information. each member of a regional body is normally responsible for its land and coastal waters warnings. a complete list of wmo members and rsmcs is available on the wmo-tcp website. wmo then collects cyclone information and visualizes it on world maps. the university of hawaii collects information from wmo and provides online information on cyclone categories, wind speed, and current and predicted courses. although comprehensive coverage of early warning systems for storms and tropical cyclones is available, recent disasters such as hurricane katrina of 2005 have highlighted inadequacies in early warning system technologies for enabling effective and timely emergency response. there is a pressing need to improve communication between the sectors involved by strengthening the links between scientific research, organizations responsible for issuing warnings, and authorities in charge of responding to these warnings. while the www is an efficient framework of existing rsmc, nmhss and networks, national capacities in most developing countries need improvements in order to effectively issue and manage early warnings. action plans must also be improved. epidemics pose a significant threat worldwide, particularly in those areas that are already affected by other serious hazards, poverty, or under-development. epidemics spread easily across country borders. globalization increases the potential of a catastrophic disease outbreak: there is the risk that millions of people worldwide could potentially be affected. a global disease outbreak early warning system is urgently needed. who is already working in this field through the epidemic and pandemic alert and response, which provides real-time information on disease outbreaks, and goarn. the 192 who member countries, disease experts, institutions, agencies, and laboratories, part of an outbreak verification list, are constantly informed of rumoured and confirmed outbreaks. the who constantly monitors anthrax, avian influenza, crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever (cchf), dengue haemorrhagic fever, ebola haemorrhagic fever, hepatitis, influenza, lassa fever, marburg haemorrhagic fever, meningococcal disease, plague, rift valley fever, severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars), tularaemia, and yellow fever. a global early warning system for animal diseases transmissible to humans was formally launched in july 2006 by the fao, the world organization for animal health (oie), and who. the global early warning and response system for major animal diseases, including zoonoses (glews) monitors outbreaks of major animal diseases worldwide. a malaria early warning system is not yet available and the need for system development is pressing, especially in sub-saharan africa where malaria causes more than one million deaths every year. the iri institute at columbia university provides malaria risk maps based on rainfall anomaly, which is one of the factors influencing malaria outbreak and distribution, but no warning is disseminated to the potentially affected population. in addition, the malaria atlas project (map) supported by the wellcome trust, the global fund to fight aids, tuberculosis and malaria, the university of oxford-li ka shing foundation global health programme and others, aims to disseminate free, accurate and up-to-date information on malaria. the map is a joint effort of researchers from around the globe working in different fields (from public health to mathematics, geography and epidemiology). map produces and makes available a range of maps and estimates to support effective planning of malaria control at national and international scales. air pollution affects developing and developed countries without exception. for this reason, air quality monitoring and early warning systems are in place in most countries worldwide. nevertheless, there is still a technological divide between developed and developing countries; in fact, these systems are most developed in the united states, canada, and europe. there are several successful cases to mention in asia (taiwan, china, hong kong, korea, japan, and thailand), a few in latin america (argentina, brazil, and mexico city) and only one in africa (cape town, south africa). most of the existing systems focus on real-time air quality monitoring by collecting and analysing pollutant concentration measurements from ground stations. satellite observation is extremely useful for aviation and tropospheric ozone monitoring, which is done by nasa and esa. air quality information is communicated mainly through web services. the us environmental protection agency (epa) provides an e-mail alert service (epa airnow) only available in the us and the ministry of environment of ontario, canada, also provides e-mail alerts. the epa airnow notification service provides air quality information in real-time to subscribers via e-mail, cell phone or pager, allowing them to take steps to protect their health in critical situations. while current air quality information is provided by each of the air quality monitoring systems listed in the appendix, few sources provide forecasts. the following agencies provide forecasts, which are fundamental for early warning: us epa, esa, prev'air, and the environmental agencies of belgium, germany, and canada (see the appendix). prediction capability is an essential component of the early warning process. existing air quality monitoring systems need to be improved in order to provide predictions to users days in advance so they can act when unhealthy air quality conditions occur. 3.2.2.1. drought. drought early warning systems are the least developed systems due its complex processes and environmental and social impacts. the study of existing drought early warning systems shows that only a few such systems exist worldwide. on a regional scale, the fews net for eastern africa, afghanistan, and central america reports on current famine conditions, including droughts, by providing monthly bulletins that are accessible on the fews net web page. for the united states, the us drought monitor (svoboda et al., 2002) provides current drought conditions at the national and state level through an interactive map available on the website accompanied by a narrative on current drought impacts and a brief description of forecasts for the following week. the us drought monitor, a joint effort between the us department of agriculture (usda), noaa, the climate prediction center, the university of nebraska lincoln and others, has become the best available product for droughts (svoboda et al., 2002) . it has a unique approach that integrates multiple drought indicators with field information and expert input, and provides information through a single easy-to-read map of current drought conditions and short notes on drought forecast conditions. for china, the beijing climate center (bcc) of the china meteorological administration (cma) monitors drought development. based on precipitation and soil moisture monitoring from an agricultural meteorological station network and remote-sensing-based monitoring from cma's national satellite meteorological center, a drought report and a map on current drought conditions are produced daily and made available on their website. the european commission joint research center (ec-jrc) provides publicly available drought-relevant information through the following real-time online maps: daily soil moisture maps of europe; daily soil moisture anomaly maps of europe; and daily maps of the forecasted top soil moisture development in europe (7-day trend). at a global scale, two institutions (fao's global information and early warning system on food and agriculture (giews) and benfield hazard research center of the university college london) provide some information on major droughts occurring worldwide. the fao-giews provides information on countries facing food insecurity through monthly briefing reports on crop prospects and food situations, including drought information, together with an interactive map of countries in crisis, available through the fao website. benfield hazard research center uses various data to produce a monthly map of current drought conditions accompanied by a short description for each country. in addition, the wmo provides useful global meteorological information, such as precipitation levels, cloudiness, and weather forecasts, which are visualized on a clickable map on the wmo website. existing approaches for drought early warning must be improved. due to the complex nature of droughts, a comprehensive and integrated approach (such as the one adopted by the us drought monitor) that would consider numerous drought indicators is required for drought monitoring and early warning. in addition, for large parts of the world suffering from severe droughts, early warning systems are not yet in place, such as in western and southern africa, and in eastern africa where fews net is available but no drought forecast is provided. parts of europe (spain, parts of france, southern sweden, and northern poland) are characterized by high drought risk but have no system in place. india, parts of thailand, turkey, iran, iraq, eastern china, areas of ecuador, colombia, and the south-eastern and western parts of australia also require a drought warning system. 3.2.2.2. desertification. the united nations convention to combat desertification (unccd), signed by 110 governments in 1994, aims to promote local action programs and international activities. national action programmes at the regional or sub-regional levels are key instruments for implementing the convention and are often supported by action programmes at sub-regional and regional levels. these programs lay out regional and local action plans and strategies to combat desertification. the unccd website provides a desertification map together with documentation, reports, and briefing notes on the implementation of action programs for each country worldwide. currently no desertification early warning system is fully implemented, despite their potential to mitigate desertification. 3.2.2.3. food security. the fao's giews supports policy-makers by delivering periodic reports through the giews web page and an e-mail service. giews also promotes collaboration and data exchange with other organizations and governments. the frequency of briefs and reports -which are released monthly or bimonthly -may not be adequate for early warning purposes. the wfp is also involved in disseminating reports and news on famine crises through its web service. no active dissemination is provided by wfp. another service is fews net, a collaborative effort of the usgs, united states agency for international development (usaid), nasa, and noaa, which reports on food insecurity conditions and issues watches and warnings to decision-makers. these bulletins are also available on their website. food security prediction estimates and maps would be extremely useful for emergency response, resources allocation, and early warning. the food security and nutrition working group (fsnwg) serves as a platform to promote the disaster risk reduction agenda in the region and provides monthly updates on food security through maps and reports available on its website. fewsnet and fsnwg were instrumental in predicting the food crisis in 2010-2011 in the east african region in a timely manner. nevertheless these early warnings did not lead to early action to address the food crisis. if they had been used adequately, the impacts of the serious humanitarian crisis in the horn of africa could have been partially mitigated (ververs, 2011) . nearly all efforts to cope with climate change or variability focus on either mitigation to reduce emissions or on adaptation to adjust to changes in climate. although it is imperative to continue with these efforts, the on-going pace of climate change and the slow international response suggests that a third option is becoming increasingly important: to protect the population against the immediate threat and consequences of climate-related extreme events, including heat waves, forest fires, floods and droughts, by providing it with timely, reliable and actionable warnings. although great strides have been made in developing climate-related warning systems over the past few years, current systems only deal with some aspects of climate related risks or hazards, and have large gaps in geographic coverage. information exists for melting glaciers, lake water level, sea height and sea surface temperature anomalies, el nino and la nina. the national snow and ice data center (nsidc)-ice concentration and snow extent provides near real-time data on daily global ice concentration and snow coverage. the usda, in cooperation with the nasa and the university of maryland, routinely monitors lake and reservoir height variations for approximately 100 lakes worldwide and provides online public access to lake water level data. information on sea height anomaly (sha) and significant wave height data are available from altimeter jason-1, topex, ers-2, envisat and gfo on a near-real time basis with an average 2-day delay. this information is provided by noaa. additionally, near real-time sea surface temperature (sst) products are available from noaa's goes and poes, as well as nasa's eos, aqua and terra. the international research institute (iri) for climate and society provides a monthly summary of the el nino and la nina southern oscillation, providing forecast summary, probabilistic forecasts, and a sea surface temperature index. however, these systems are still far from providing the coverage and scope that is needed and technically feasible. large parts of the world's most vulnerable regions are still not covered by a comprehensive early warning system. most systems only deal with one aspect of climate-related risks or hazards, e.g., heat waves or drought. finally, most systems do not cover the entire early warning landscape from collection of meteorological data to delivery and response of users. recently, the world meteorological organization proposed a global framework for climate services, which aims to strengthen the global cooperative system for collecting, processing and exchanging observations and for using climate-related information (wmo, 2011). early warning technologies appear to be mature in certain fields but not yet in others. considerable progress has been made, thanks to advances in scientific research and in communication and information technologies. nevertheless, a significant amount of work remains to fill existing technological, communication, and geographical coverage gaps. early warning technologies are now available for almost all types of hazards, although for some hazards (such as droughts and landslides) these technologies are still less developed. most countries appear to have early warning systems for disaster risk reduction. however, there is still a technological and national capacity divide between developed and developing countries. from an operational point of view, some elements of the early warning process are not yet mature. in particular, it is essential to strengthen the links between sectors involved in early warning, including organizations responsible for issuing warnings and the authorities in charge of responding to these warnings, as well as promoting good governance and appropriate action plans. it is generally recognized that it is fundamental to establish effective early warning systems to better identify the risk and occurrence of hazards and to better monitor the population's level of vulnerability. although several early warning systems are in place at the global scale in most countries for most hazard types, there is the need ''to work expeditiously towards the establishment of a worldwide early warning system for all natural hazards with regional nodes, building on existing national and regional capacity such as the newly established indian ocean tsunami warning and mitigation system'' (2005 un world summit outcome). by building upon ongoing efforts to promote early warning, a multi-hazard early warning system will have a critical role in preventing hazardous events from turning into disasters. a globally comprehensive early warning system can be built, based on the many existing systems and capacities. this will not be a single, centrally planned and commanded system, but a networked and coordinated assemblage of nationally owned and operated systems. it will make use of existing observation networks, warning centres, modelling and forecasting capacities, telecommunication networks, and preparedness and response capacities (united nations, 2006) . a global approach to early warning will also guarantee consistency of warning messages and mitigation approaches globally thus improving coordination at a multi-level and multi-sector scale among the different national actors such as the technical agencies, the academic community, disaster managers, civil society, and the international community. the next section provides an analysis of existing global early warning/monitoring systems that aggregate multi-hazard information. this section presents the results of a comparative analysis of multi-hazard global monitoring/ early warning systems. the aim of this analysis is to assess the effectiveness of existing global scale multi-hazard systems and define the set of needs suggested by comparing existing services. it assesses existing monitoring/early warning systems (singh and grasso, 2007) , chosen to be multi-hazard with global coverage, such as wfp's (the un food aid agency's) hews; alertnet, the humanitarian information alert service by reuters; reliefweb, the humanitarian information alert service by un-ocha; gdacs (global disaster alert and coordination system), a joint initiative of the united nations office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs (un-ocha) and the ec-jrc; and usgs ens. these systems have been analysed for the type of events covered, variety of output/ communication forms and range of users served. these systems cover a range of hazards and communicate results using a variety of methods. usgs ens only provides information on earthquakes and volcanic eruptions through the volcano hazards program (vhp) in collaboration with smithsonian institution. reliefweb focuses on natural hazards (earthquakes, tsunamis, severe weather, volcanic eruptions, storms, floods, droughts, cyclones, insect infestation, fires, and technological hazards) and health; alertnet additionally provides information on food insecurity and conflicts. gdacs provides timely information on natural hazards (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, floods, and cyclones). hews informs users on earthquakes, severe weather, volcanic eruptions, floods, and locusts. existing systems, such as hews, post the information on a website, provide mobile phone and rss services, and gdacs sends emails, sms and faxes to users. the gdacs notification service mostly addresses humanitarian organizations, rescue teams or aid agencies. alertnet provides information to users through a web service, e-mail, sms and reports. reliefweb uses web services, e-mail and reports to disseminate information to users. reliefweb and alertnet also use new communications tools (facebook and twitter). ocha's virtual on-site operations coordination centre (virtual-osocc) enables real-time information exchange by all actors of the international disaster response community during the early phases following disasters. this service has been integrated within gdacs but is restricted to disaster managers. the only natural event notification provided by usgs e-mail service is earthquakes. hews offers no e-mail notifications for natural events. alertnet and reliefweb inform users on natural hazards and on health, food and security issues. usgs, reliefweb, alertnet and gdacs serve a wide a variety of users such as international organizations, humanitarian aid, policy/decision-makers, and civil society (fig. 4) . the optimal global coverage multi-hazard system has to be as comprehensive as possible in terms of content, output and range of users. it will enhance existing systems by streaming data and information from existing sources and it will deliver this information in a variety of user-friendly formats to reach the widest range of users. by building on existing systems the multi-hazard system will inherit both the technological and geographical coverage gaps and limitations of existing early warning systems. the review analysis performed in the section ''inventory of early warning systems'' has shown that for some hazards (such as droughts and landslides) these technologies are still less developed and for tsunamis these systems are still under development for areas at risk. the analysis has shown that there is still a technological and national capacity divide between developed and developing countries. from an operational point of view, the links and communication networks between all sectors involved (organizations responsible for issuing warnings and the authorities in charge of responding to these warnings) need improvement. similarly, good governance and appropriate action plans need to be promoted. overcoming these gaps and enhancing, integrating, and coordinating existing systems is the first priority for the development of a global scale multi-hazard early warning system . early warning technologies have greatly benefited from recent advances in communication and information technologies and an improved knowledge on natural hazards and the underlying science. nevertheless many gaps still exist in early warning technologies and capacities, especially in the developing world, and a lot more has to be done to develop a global scale multi-hazard system. operational gaps need to be filled for slow-onset hazards both in monitoring, communication and response phases. effective and timely decision making is needed for slow onset hazards. below are some recommendations: (1) fill existing gaps: the section 3 identified the weaknesses and gaps in existing early warning systems. technological, geographical coverage, and capacity gaps exist, in addition to operational gaps for slow-onset hazards. in particular, actions need to be taken to improve prediction capabilities for landslides hazard aimed at developing a landslides early warning system. likewise, there is a pressing need to improve existing prediction capabilities for droughts. a global early fire warning system is not yet in place, the tsunami early warning systems for the indian ocean and the caribbean are not yet fully operational and a desertification early warning system has not been developed yet. there are ongoing efforts to develop these systems, such as the gfmc effort for the global fire ews, the indian ocean tsunami warning system operated by indonesia and a noaa led effort in the caribbean. a malaria early warning system is mandatory for africa, where one million deaths occur every year due to malaria. climate variability impacts need to be monitored within a global and coordinated effort, and the global framework for climate services needs to be further elaborated and operationalized. local earthquake early warning systems applications are needed in high seismic risk areas, where early warning systems are not yet in place. air quality and flood systems require improvements in prediction capabilities. dust storms and transboundary early warning systems do not yet exist. a coordinated volcanic early warning system that would integrate existing resources is also needed as well as an increase in coverage of volcanic observatories. particular attention should be paid to fill gaps in decision making processes for slow-onset hazards. their extent and impact are challenging to quantify. for this reason, actions and response are far more difficult tasks for slow-onset hazards than they are for other natural hazards. an institutional mechanism to regularly monitor and communicate slow-onset changes is needed to keep changes under review and to enable rational and timely decisions to be taken based on improved information. (2) build capacity: the evaluation study of existing early warning systems (the section 3) highlighted that a technological divide between developed and developing countries still exists. it is critical to develop basic early warning infrastructures and capacities in parts of the developing world most affected by disasters; it is also important to promote education programs on disaster mitigation and preparedness and integrate disaster mitigation plans into the broader development context. poor countries suffer greater economic losses from disasters than rich countries. development plays a key role and has a significant impact on disaster risk. almost 85 percent of the people exposed to the deadliest hazards, earthquakes, floods, cyclones and droughts live in the developing world. the impact of disasters is mostly influenced by previous development choices. by integrating disaster mitigation strategies into planning and policies, the effects of disasters can be sensibly reduced and managed. ''disaster risk is not inevitable, but on the contrary can be managed and reduced through appropriate development actions'' (united nations development programme-undp, 2004) . it is through ''risk-sensitive development planning that countries can help reduce disaster risks''. key targets for capacity building include the following: 1. developing national research, monitoring and assessment capacity, including training in assessment and early warning. 2. supporting national and regional institutions in data collection, analysis and monitoring of natural and man-made hazards. 3. providing access to scientific and technological information, including information on stateof-the-art technologies. 4. education and awareness-raising, including networking among universities with programmes of excellence in the field of the emergency management. 5. organizing of training courses for local decision-makers and communities. 6. bridging the gap between emergency relief and long-term development. (3) bridge the gaps between science and decision making, and strengthen coordination and communication links: scientific and technological advances in modelling, monitoring and predicting capabilities could bring immense benefits to early warning if science were effectively translated into disaster management actions. bridging the gap between scientific research and decision making will make it possible to fully exploit capacities of early warning technologies for societal benefit. the major challenge is to ensure that early warnings result in prompt responses by governments and potentially the international community. this requires that information be effectively disseminated in an accessible form down to the end user. this is achievable by adopting standard formats and easy-to-use tools for information dissemination, such as interactive maps, emails, sms, etc. the adoption of standard formats (such as the common alerting protocol cap) for disseminating and exchanging information has to be promoted. the advantage of standard format alerts is their compatibility with all information systems, warning systems, media, and most importantly, with new technologies such as web services. the adoption of standard formats guarantees consistency of warning messages and is compatible with all types of information systems and public alerting systems, including broadcast radio and television as well as public and private data networks, with multi-lingual warning systems and emerging technologies. this would easily replace specific application oriented messages and will allow the merging of warning messages from several early warning systems into a single multihazard message format. finally, it is critical to strengthen coordination and communication links by defining responsibility mechanisms and appropriate action plans. more often, time-sequenced warning messages are released in early warning processes, implying a decrease in warning times available for action and in reliability of the information. this trade-off needs to be addressed. the content and views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies, or carry the endorsement of the contributory organizations or the united nations environment programme (unep). the designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of unep concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers and boundaries. reference to a commercial company or product in this publication does not imply the endorsement of unep. & maps, photos, and illustrations as specified. this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. unep would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. no use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from unep. applications for such permission, with a statement of purpose and intent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the director, division of communications and public information (dcpi), unep, p.o. box 30552, nairobi 00100, kenya. the use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products for publicity or advertising is not permitted. citation: unep (2012 adaptation: (1) actions taken to help communities and ecosystems cope with changing climate conditions (unfccc). (2) genetically determined characteristic that enhances the ability of an organism to cope with its environment (cbd). aerosols: a collection of airborne solid or liquid particles, with a typical size between 0.01 and 10 mm, that resides in the atmosphere for at least several hours. aerosols may be of either natural or anthropogenic origin. air quality: smog is the product of human and natural activities such as industry, transportation, wild-fires, volcanic eruptions, etc. and can have serious effects on human health and the environment. us epa uses and air quality index (aqi) which is calculated on five major air pollutants regulated by the clean air act: ground-level ozone, particle pollution (also known as particulate matter), carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. for each of these pollutants, epa has established national air quality standards to protect public health. groundlevel ozone and airborne particles are the two pollutants that pose the greatest threat to human health in this country. biodiversity: the variety of life on earth, including diversity at the genetic level, among species and among ecosystems and habitats. it includes diversity in abundance, distribution and in behaviour. biodiversity also incorporates human cultural diversity, which can both be affected by the same drivers as biodiversity, and itself has impacts on the diversity of genes, other species and ecosystems. biofuels: fuel produced from dry organic matter or combustible oils from plants, such as alcohol from fermented sugar, black liquor from the paper manufacturing process, wood and soybean oil. biomass: organic material, both above ground and below ground, and both living and dead, such as trees, crops, grasses, tree litter and roots. capacity: the combination of all the strengths, attributes and resources available within a community, society or organization that can be used to achieve agreed goals. comment: capacity may include infrastructure and physical means, institutions, societal coping abilities, as well as human knowledge, skills and collective attributes such as social relationships, leadership and management. capacity also may be described as capability. capacity assessment is a term for the process by which the capacity of a group is reviewed against desired goals, and the capacity gaps are identified for further action. capacity building: process of developing the technical skills, institutional capability, and personnel. climate change: change of climate, which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. climate variability: variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations and the occurrence of extremes) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. variability may be due to natural internal processes in the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability). common alerting protocol: the common alerting protocol (cap) provides an open, nonproprietary digital message format for all types of alerts and notifications. it does not address any particular application or telecommunications method. the cap format is compatible with emerging techniques, such as web services, as well as existing formats including the specific area message encoding (same) used for the united states' national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa) weather radio and the emergency alert system (eas). cost-benefit analysis: a technique designed to determine the feasibility of a project or plan by quantifying its costs and benefits. cyclone: an atmospheric closed circulation rotating counter clockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. deforestation: the direct human-induced conversion of forested land to non-forested land. desertification: degradation of land in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas, resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities. disaster: a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources. comment: disasters are often described as a result of the combination of: the exposure to a hazard; the conditions of vulnerability that are present; and insufficient capacity or measures to reduce or cope with the potential negative consequences. disaster impacts may include loss of life, injury, disease and other negative effects on human physical, mental and social well-being, together with damage to property, destruction of assets, loss of services, social and economic disruption and environmental degradation. disaster risk: the potential disaster losses, in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets and services, which could occur to a particular community or a society over some specified future time period. comment: the definition of disaster risk reflects the concept of disasters as the outcome of continuously present conditions of risk. disaster risk comprises different types of potential losses which are often difficult to quantify. nevertheless, with knowledge of the prevailing hazards and the patterns of population and socio-economic development, disaster risks can be assessed and mapped, in broad terms at least. disaster risk reduction: the concept and practice of reducing disaster risks through systematic efforts to analyse and manage the causal factors of disasters, including through reduced exposure to hazards, lessened vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land and the environment, and improved preparedness for adverse events. comment: a comprehensive approach to reduce disaster risks is set out in the united nations-endorsed hyogo framework for action, adopted in 2005, whose expected outcome is ''the substantial reduction of disaster losses, in lives and the social, economic and environmental assets of communities and countries.'' the international strategy for disaster reduction (isdr) system provides a vehicle for cooperation among governments, organisations and civil society actors to assist in the implementation of the framework. note that while the term ''disaster reduction'' is sometimes used, the term ''disaster risk reduction'' provides a better recognition of the ongoing nature of disaster risks and the ongoing potential to reduce these risks. droughts: a period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area. early warning system: the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. comment: this definition encompasses the range of factors necessary to achieve effective responses to warnings. a people-centred early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: knowledge of the risks; monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and local capabilities to respond to the warnings received. the expression ''end-to-end warning system'' is also used to emphasize that warning systems need to span all steps from hazard detection through to community response. earth observation: earth observation, through measuring and monitoring, provides an insight and understanding into earth's complex processes and changes. eo include measurements that can be made directly or by sensors in-situ or remotely (i.e. satellite remote sensing, aerial surveys, land or ocean-based monitoring systems, fig. 3 ), to provide key information to models or other tools to support decision making processes. earthquakes: earthquakes are due to a sudden release of stresses accumulated around the faults in the earth's crust. this energy is released through seismic waves that travel from the origin zone, which cause the ground to shake. severe earthquakes can affect buildings and populations. the level of damage depends on many factors such as intensity of the earthquake, depth, vulnerability of the structures, and distance from the earthquake origin. ecosystem: dynamic complex of plant, animal, microorganism communities and their non-living environment, interacting as a functional unit. ecosystems are irrespective of political boundaries. el niñ o-southern oscillation: a complex interaction of the tropical pacific ocean and the global atmosphere that results in irregularly occurring episodes of changed ocean and weather patterns in many parts of the world, often with significant impacts over many months, such as altered marine habitats, rainfall changes, floods, droughts, and changes in storm patterns. comment: the el nino part of the el nino-southern oscillation (enso) phenomenon refers to the well-above average ocean temperatures that occur along the coasts of ecuador, peru and northern chile and across the eastern equatorial pacific ocean, while la nina part refers to the opposite circumstances when well-below-average ocean temperatures occur. the southern oscillation refers to the accompanying changes in the global air pressure patterns that are associated with the changed weather patterns experienced in different parts of the world. emergency management: the organization and management of resources and responsibilities for addressing all aspects of emergencies, in particular preparedness, response and initial recovery steps. comment: a crisis or emergency is a threatening condition that requires urgent action. effective emergency action can avoid the escalation of an event into a disaster. emergency management involves plans and institutional arrangements to engage and guide the efforts of government, non-government, voluntary and private agencies in comprehensive and coordinated ways to respond to the entire spectrum of emergency needs. the expression ''disaster management'' is sometimes used instead of emergency management. extensible markup language: a markup language that defines a set of rules for encoding documents in a format that is both human-readable and machine-readable. e-waste: a generic term encompassing various forms of electrical and electronic equipment that has ceased to be of value and is disposed of. a practical definition of e-waste is ''any electrically powered appliance that fails to satisfy the current owner for its originally intended purpose.'' false alarm: in the context of early warning systems, a false alarm is defined as the situation in which an alarm is activated when it should not have been. fine particle: particulate matter suspended in the atmosphere less than 2.5 mm in size (pm2.5). floods: an overflow of water onto normally dry land. theinundation of a normally dry area caused by rising water in an existing waterway, such as a river, stream, or drainage ditch. ponding of water at or near the point where the rain fell. flooding is a longer term event than flash flooding: it may last days or weeks. floods are often triggered by severe storms, tropical cyclones, and tornadoes. food security: when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life. forecast: definite statement or statistical estimate of the likely occurrence of a future event or conditions for a specific area. comment: in meteorology a forecast refers to a future condition, whereas a warning refers to a potentially dangerous future condition. forest: land spanning more than 0.5 ha with trees higher than 5 m and a canopy cover of more than 10 percent, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ. it does not include land that is predominantly under agricultural or urban land use. gaussian distribution: the gaussian (normal) distribution was historically called the law of errors. it was used by gauss to model errors in astronomical observations, which is why it is usually referred to as the gaussian distribution. geological hazard: geological process or phenomenon that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. comment: geological hazards include internal earth processes, such as earthquakes, volcanic activity and emissions, and related geophysical processes such as mass movements, landslides, rockslides, surface collapses, and debris or mud flows. hydrometeorological factors are important contributors to some of these processes. tsunamis are difficult to categorize; although they are triggered by undersea earthquakes and other geological events, they are essentially an oceanic process that is manifested as a coastal water-related hazard. within this report, tsunamis are included in the geological hazards group. geographic information system: a computerized system organizing data sets through a geographical referencing of all data included in its collections. the potential for earthquake early warning in southern california oregon department of environmental quality. water quality credit trading in oregon: a case study report disaster management support group (dmsg) ceos disaster management support group report. the use of earth observing satellites for hazard support: assessments & scenarios. final report of the ceos disaster management support group natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis mexico city seismic alert system environmental change monitoring by geoinformation technology for baghdad and its neighboring areas geoss 10-year implementation plan reference document early warning systems early warning of wildland fires usable science: early warning systems: do's and don'ts automated decision procedure for earthquake early warning automated decision procedure for earthquake early warning a model for a seismic computerized alert network an automatic processing system for broadcasting earthquake alarms global observations of the land, a proposed theme to the igos-partnership-version 2 probability theory: the logic of science jma earthquake early warning real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation global forest fire watch: wildfire potential, detection, monitoring and assessment oil spill detection and monitoring from satellite image on a rational strong motion index compared with other various indices the role of a new method of quickly estimating epicentral distance and magnitude from a single seismic record prediction, science, decision making and the future of nature university of valencia,eos.d2c. chinese academy of forestry effective early warning -use of hazard maps as a tool for effective risk communication among policy makers and communities -session organized by the government of japan global environmental alert service digital change detection techniques using remotely sensed data the drought monitor ict in pre-disaster awareness and preparedness. presented at the apt-itu joint meeting for ict role in disaster management early warning systems for natural disasters reduction undp-united nations development programme bureau for crisis prevention and recovery united nations convention to combat desertification the east african food crisis: did regional early warning systems function climate knowledge for action: a global framework for climate services-empowering the most vulnerable quick and reliable determination of magnitude for seismic early warning a virtual sub-network approach to earthquake early warning key: cord-005191-a70eedna authors: cohen, irun r. title: informational landscapes in art, science, and evolution date: 2006-06-08 journal: bull math biol doi: 10.1007/s11538-006-9118-4 sha: doc_id: 5191 cord_uid: a70eedna an informational landscape refers to an array of information related to a particular theme or function. the internet is an example of an informational landscape designed by humans for purposes of communication. once it exists, however, any informational landscape may be exploited to serve a new purpose. listening post is the name of a dynamic multimedia work of art that exploits the informational landscape of the internet to produce a visual and auditory environment. here, i use listening post as a prototypic example for considering the creative role of informational landscapes in the processes that beget evolution and science. invites us to explore it-physically or in reverie. a landscape of associations weaves a narrative. an informational landscape denotes an array of information that, like a natural landscape, invites exploration; the informational landscape too holds a narrative. here, i shall use listening post as an allegory to explore two other systems that deal with informational landscapes: biologic evolution and human understanding. waddington has used the term epigenetic landscape as a metaphor to describe the interactions between genes and environment that take place during embryonic development (waddington, 1940) . an informational landscape is quite another matter; this landscape represents the maze of information available for potential exploitation by a suitable system. as we shall see below, the informational landscape is a substrate for system-making. let's start by seeing how listening post exploits information to organize a work of art. listening post is formed by two components: an overt visual-auditory display designed by artist rubin and a covert process designed by mathematician hansen. the display is composed of a suspended rectangular grid of over 200 brick-sized electronic monitors and a set of audio installations (fig. 1) . the monitors pulsate with fragments of texts and compositions of light and the sound tracks pulsate with musical passages and artificial speech. the display triggers living associations: "a sense of cycles in life, day and night, the seasons. . .the information. . .lighting up as if the world is awakening from sleep and later changing to large sweeps." (eleanor rubin, personal communication; see, http//www.ellyrubin.com). the covert process that produces listening post's art is an algorithm developed by hansen, then a mathematician at bell laboratories. the algorithm randomly samples, in real time, the many thousands of chats, bulletin boards, and bits of message that flow dynamically through the cyberspace of the internet. this simultaneous mélange of signals, in the aggregate, is meaningless noise. the algorithm, by seeking key words and patterns of activity, artfully exploits this raw information to construct patterns of light, sound, and words that please human minds. the substrate of information flowing over the internet is in constant flux so the patterns presented by listening post are unpredictable at the fine microscopic scale; but at the macroscopic scale of sensible experience, listening post is manifestly pleasing. the patterned flow of sights, sounds, and words (seen and heard) arouses associations, memories, and feelings in the mind of the viewer-which is what we call art: art, whether visual, auditory, tactile, gustatory, or verbal, is an artifact made to arouse associations, memories, and feelings. listening post is an artful representation of the complexity of information flowing through the internet; listening post transforms the internet's massive informational landscape into a comprehensible miniature. two attributes of listening post illustrate our theme: the work feeds on information designed for other purposes and it survives by engaging our minds. above, i have used four words-information, signal, noise, and meaning-that usually need no definition; we use them every day. but they are important to this discussion, so i will define them. i use the word information in the sense defined by shannon (1948) : information is a just-so arrangement-a defined structure-as opposed to randomness (cohen, 2000) . information becomes a signal if you respond to the information. the meaning of the signal is how you respond to it (atlan and cohen, 1998) . for example, a chinese character bears information (it is arranged in a characteristic form), but the character is not a signal unless you know how to read chinese. what the chinese character means is the way the community of chinese readers use the character and respond to it. information, then, is an intrinsic property of form. in biology, form is expressed by the characteristic structures of molecules, cells, organs, organisms, populations, and societies. informational structures are not limited to material entities: organizations and processes through their defining regularities also fashion informational structures. an informational landscape encompasses a totality of information-material and organizational. information expressed in biological structures is essential to life, but structure alone is not sufficient for living. biological information is collective and reproducible-the structural information repeats itself at various scales, from molecules through societies (and beyond into human culture). the information encoded in biological structures persists and cycles; we call it development, physiology, and reproduction. but most importantly, biological structures perform functions-biological information bears meaning (neuman, 2004) . meaning, in contrast to information, is not an intrinsic property of an entity (a word or a molecule, for example); the meaning of an entity emerges from the interactions of the test entity (the word or molecule) with other entities (for example, words move people, and molecules interact with their receptors, ligands, enzymes, etc.). interactions mark all manifestations of biological structure-molecular through social. meaning can thus be viewed as the impact of information-what a word means is how people use it; what a molecule means is how the organism uses it; what an organism means is what it does to others and how others respond to it; and so on over the scales life-meaning is generated by interaction (cohen, 2000) . in summary, we can connect the three conceptsinformation, signal, and meaning thusly: a signal is information with meaning. in other words, signalling is the ability of information to elicit a response, which is the meaning of the information. note that a signal, like information in general, is free of intentions; astrophysicists, for example, receive signals from distant galaxies, which have no interest in communicating with an astrophysicist; it is the response of the astrophysicist to the galactic radiation (meaning-making) that transforms the structure of the radiation (its information) into a signal. noise is more varied than signal. noise can refer to a number of different situations: randomness as opposed to structured information (a scribble versus a chinese character); information without meaning (a greek conversation overheard by one who does not understand greek); meaningful information in a meaningless context (across-the-room cocktail-party chatter). noise in the generic sense proposed by shannon is the unstructured; but noise can also refer to meaningless information that might be meaningful in other circumstances. for example, a dna sequence composing an immunoglobulin v gene element has little meaning until the sequence is recombined with other dna sequences to form a functioning antibody gene (cohen, 2000) -that recombination charges the dna sequence with meaning. whether cyberspace transmits noise or signal, as we have defined the terms, depends on who you are and what you seek. if you are the recipient of a specific bit of information-a chat or an email directed to you, for example-then you perceive signal. but if you don't understand the language, or if you do understand the language but see intruding spam, or experience a profusion of many messages at once, then you hear only noise. (noise too can have meaning if it makes you leave the room). the difference then between signal and noise, one might claim, is having the right reception. or, to put it another way, the same information can be either noise or signal, depending on how you perceive it-or transmit it. combatants may attempt to evade detection by disguising signals as noise; for example, humans encrypt secret transmissions (kahn, 1996) and infectious agents scramble antigens (cohen, 2000; cohen, 2003) . the transformation of noise back into signal is part of the game; counter-intelligence can learn to break the enemy's linguistic codes; an immune system can learn to decipher a pathogen's molecular codes. in informational terms, listening post is a machine that transforms noisy cyberspace information into a new narrative by selecting and recombining fragments of the flux. listening post dynamically self-organizes, similar to a living organism (atlan, 1987; weisbuch and solomon, 2002) . the internet created a new informational landscape, a new niche, that could be sampled and exploited by hansen and rubin to enhance their fitness as artists in the wilds of the manhattan art world (fig. 2) . biological evolution traditionally is described in terms of fitness: species evolve because the fittest survive to pass on their genes, while the unfit die with their genes (darwin, 1859). survival-of-the-fittest thus selects the "best" genetic variants from among the phenotypes in the breeding population (plotkin, 1994) . the process leads, with time, to creatures that are better adapted and improved. improved fitness is the aim of evolution, so say some experts. but there are at least two problems with the concept of fitness: first, fitness is difficult to define; most definitions involve a circular argument-what survives is fit, by definition (gould and lewontin, 1979) . this amounts to a tautology: fit is fit. attempts have been made to define fitness in terms of reproductive success (hoffman et al., 2004) . but different species survive well despite vastly different numbers of surviving offspring: compare the reproductive strategy of the elephant with that of the gnat that rides on its back; compare the whale with the sardine; each to its own reproductive profligacy or dearth. second, evolution does not rest with fit creatures; evolution assembles increasingly complex creatures. accumulating complexity is manifest in the evolutionary tree. creatures higher in the evolutionary tree-more recent creatures-tend to be more complex than the creatures that preceded them: eukaryotic cells deploy more genes and house more organelles than do prokaryotic cells; mammals have more organs and express more behaviors than do the trees, round worms, or insects that preceded them. quite simply, evolution generates complexity (fig. 3) . now, one might argue that the more complex species is the more fit species; if that is true, then the quest for fitness alone should generate increasing complexity. but is that true; does fitness itself drive complexity onward? what is complexity? complexity is a relative term: more complex entities compared to simpler entities incorporate more component parts and integrate more diverse interactions between their component parts. moreover, the single component parts of complex living systems usually participate in a variety of different functions (pleiotropism). complexity thus can be defined in terms of information; complex systems sense, store, and deploy more information than do simple systems. complexity presents two aspects: intrinsic and extrinsic. a complex system such as a cell, brain, organism, or society is complex intrinsically because of the way its parts interact and hold the system together. a complex system is also complex extrinsically because we who study it have difficulty understanding the properties that emerge from it (the biological perspective); we also have trouble fixing it (the medical perspective). evolution. the environment constitutes an informational landscape of considerable complexity (designated by the bundles of arrows) that in the aggregate is not readily useful (note the puzzled face, ?). however, a creature with a suitable physiology can extract useful information (a limited bundle of information) and the creature's new phenotype is subject to selection. survival can lead to a new species (new meaning) and so the complexity of the informational landscape is amplified and enriched through positive feedback. the new species too becomes an informational landscape for further exploitation by parasites and yet newer species. fitness, unlike complexity, does not relate to the way a system is put together or the way the system is understood by those who study it. fitness relates to the success of a system in thriving in its own world. we can conclude, therefore, that fitness and complexity describe independent attributes. so there is no necessary correlation between complexity and fitness: no dinosaurs have survived irrespective of how complex they were (and some were very complex indeed). in fact, it seems that the dinosaurs were unfit because they were too complex to survive the environmental disruptions brought about by the earth's collision with a comet (morrison, 2003) . primitive bacteria have survived such calamities despite their relative simplicity (probably because of their relative simplicity). indeed, the lowest and simplest bacteria will probably prove to be more fit for survival than we more complex humans if we both have to face a really severe change in the world environment. extremely complex systems, like us, are extremely fragile, and so they are less fit in certain situations. the bottom line is that the quest for fitness cannot explain the rise of complexity. but why then is complexity usually-but not always-more evident the higher one climbs up the evolutionary tree? it has been possible to demonstrate the evolution of complexity mathematically (chaitin, 1998; wolfram, 2002; lenski et al., 2003) . but evolution on a computer (in silico) is not evolution in the world of nature (in mundo). if complex systems tend to be fragile, why does evolution persist in devising them? the accumulation of complexity during evolution can be explained, despite fragility, by a principle of self-organization; the principle, formulated by atlan, is that existing information tends automatically to breed additional new information (atlan, 1987 ). atlan's argument goes like this: existing information first generates surplus copies of itself, which happens regularly in reproducing biological systems. the surplus copies can then safely undergo mutations, and so create modified (new), added information without destroying the untouched copies of the old information. the system thus becomes enriched; it now contains the new information along with the old information. indeed, it appears that the complexity of vertebrate evolution was preceded and made possible by a seminal duplication of the ancestral genome (dehal and boore, 2005 ). atlan's formulation implies that the more structures (the more information) a system encompasses, the greater the likelihood of variation in that system (discussed in cohen, 2000) . hence, the amount of existing information composing a system (previously evolved structures) breeds a commensurate amount of new information (variant structures). note that the constant variation of existing information is guaranteed by the second law of thermodynamics-order tends automatically to dissipate into variant structures; hence, any information will mutate over time (fig. 4) . information, in other words, feeds back on itself in a positive way; a great amount of information, through its variation, leads to even more information. and as information varies it increases, and so does complexity. once a relatively stable, nonrandom structure (an informational entity) comes into being, it will be subject to variation. all genes, for example, mutate; proteins assume different conformations and functions; minds get new ideas. repositories of information like genes, proteins, minds, cultures, and so forth, vary to generate new genes, proteins, minds, or cultures that then get exploited for additional uses. a human is manyfold more complex than is a round worm, yet the human bears less than twice the number of genes borne by the worm (about 35,000 human genes compared to about 20,000 analogous worm genes). the human species has accumulated its characteristic complexity by using its set of gene products in much more complicated ways than does the worm. humans exploit a more complex informational landscape than do round worms. humans are also more fragile: the columbia space shuttle that disintegrated upon re-entry into the atmosphere in 2003 carried both humans and round worms; only the round worms survived. the difference between classical darwinian evolution and the idea of evolving informational landscapes is highlighted by the difference between selection and exploitation. darwin, familiar with the art of animal husbandry, applied to nature the atlan (1987) , the net amount of information in a system will increase only if two conditions are satisfied: the original information duplicates to produce surplus copies and the surplus copies mutate to produce variant new information. system x, for example, has not duplicated its information (triangle); even if the triangle mutates, there will be no net increase in information, since the original information is merely replaced (n = n). system y, in contrast, has duplicated its original information (both triangle and box), and so mutation of each surplus copy generates a net increase in information. also note that information accelerates logarithmically (log2): in system y, two mutations can give rise to n × 4 complexity. a system that starts out with more information (system y) will generate new information faster than does a system that starts with less information (system x). wisdom of artificial selection; the wise breeder selects for propagation from among the variant household creatures those individuals most fitting market or household needs. likewise, nature has selected for propagation those creatures most fit for survival-natural selection recapitulates artificial selection (darwin, 1859). my point here is that the natural informational landscape, in contrast to the 19th century english manor, does not merely provide grounds for selecting what fits the market or the whims of the landlord; the natural informational landscape provides grounds for extravagant exploitation. any organism, simple or complex, that manages to mine the landscape for enough energy and information to create meaning (through productive interactions) might manage to survive there. exploitation, as i use the term here, refers to the modification of information for new uses. listening post arose by exploiting the new informational landscape provided by the internet, which itself arose by exploiting other informational landscapeslanguage, computers, society, culture. let us extend the listening post metaphor and say that biologic evolution proceeds through the inevitable exploitation of new informational landscapes by new or variant creatures. evolving and evolved creatures themselves become part of an enriched informational landscape, continuously available for further exploitation by other creatures. the dynamics of evolution are the dynamics of information. like the algorithm of listening post, an evolving species creates new meaning by exploiting information flowing through its environment-its cyberspace. that in a nutshell is the informational view of evolution. information exploits information and compounds information to generate new meanings; life is constant ferment. the escalation of complexity is evident medically. consider parasitism: there exists no creature that is not exploited by some other creature. hosts are informational landscapes for raising parasites. indeed, the biosphere is one great food chain; each species makes a living by exploiting the information (structures and processes) of other creatures. the generative informational landscape includes even the artifacts of cultural evolution, and not only the natural products of chemical and cellular evolution. the human brain generated language; language generated culture; and culture is changing the world. the evolution of human air travel-a complex of machines, logistics, economics, and habits of mind designed for anything but parasites-contributed to the informational landscapes that generated the spread of hiv and west nile virus; poultry farming gave rise to sars and avian influenza; air conditioning systems provided a landscape for legionnaires' disease. information, because of positive feedback, breeds more information, and complexity results. note that positive feedback will accelerate any process; witness the accelerating complexity that marks our world: 100,000 years of hunting and gathering was replaced by 10,000 years of agriculture and animal husbandry that generated a thousand years of accelerated urbanization, 200 years of industrialization, a few decades of informational civilization, and an emerging global economic culture. unfortunately, positive feedback, unless regulated by negative feedback or other kinds of control, accelerates into instability, chaos, and disaster (robertson, 1991; segel and bar-or, 1999) . information that breeds ever more complex systems is dangerous-like the dinosaurs, an overly complex system collapses of its own inherent fragility, and complexity has to again re-start its evolution (fig. 5) . consider an example closer to home: your personal computer crashes when you try to run too many programs simultaneously; the more complex your program, the more often you have to push restart. (being smarter than dinosaurs, we might use our foresight to prevent global warming, over-population, collective terror, and who knows what else; let us avoid having to restart a world.) in summary, we can say that complexity is managed throughout evolution by a balance between two opposing forces: autocatalysis and fragility. on the one hand, complexity inexorably increases in time through the autocatalytic force of increasing information. on the other hand, catastrophic extinctions mark the fragility of large complex ecosystems; on a lesser scale, complexity may also be held in check or reduced by the day-to-day survival of the fittest creature that may be the less complex creature. darwin's concept of natural selection, including survival of the fittest, does play a critical role in the process of evolution, but mostly after a new or variant species has begun to exploit an informational landscape. quite simply, the species has to survive long enough to maintain itself. indeed, the informational landscape might include other species competing for the same sources of information and energy; fig. 4 ) over evolutionary time (t) leads to intrinsically fragile complex systems (c) that are susceptible to crash when challenged by severe environmental perturbations. complexity then has to restart its accumulation from a lower level. the scales and the form of the curve shown here are hypothetical. a species' fitness may be quantified as the measure of time occupied by that species from its origin to its extinction. this formulation avoids the difficulties of identifying factors common to all the various species with their vastly different strategies for survival (reproduction rate, lifespan, efficiency of energy use, etc.); to quantify the fitness of a species, we merely measure its survival time. in the hypothetical figure, we compare the fitness of a hypothetical bacterium that continues to survive for some 5 × 10 8 years compared to a hypothetical dinosaur species that survived for some 10 7 years till its extinction about 65 × 10 6 years ago. the human species arose some 10 5 years ago, and who knows how long it will last. the figure suggests that there is no positive correlation between complexity (c) and fitness; the opposite might be the case. in that case, survival of the fittest is an apt description of the conflict between the competitors. but much of evolution occurs without competition. in fact it is clear that many products of evolution are neutral; they manifest no selective advantage over other phenotypes (kimura, 1983) . neutral evolution simply expresses the exploitation of an informational landscape: survival of the fittest is not an explanation for neutral evolution. fitness, then, is only another word for survival (so, as i said, survival of the fittest is a tautology). the measure of a species' fitness can be assessed most clearly by hindsight, by observing the species' past history of success. a species that manages to last only a short time in its informational landscape is manifestly less fit than is a species that lasts a longer time in its informational landscape. thus the fitness of a species is commensurate with the amount of time the species has persisted from its inception to its extinction, its crash. fitness can be measured quantitatively by the amount of time needed by the environment to eradicate the species-by the elapsed time to unfitness, the time to extinction (fig. 5) . this notion of fitness will be elaborated elsewhere; the point i want to make here is that fitness is merely the temporary absence of unfitness. fitness, in other words, can be reduced to mere survival. the offspring of fitness is taught classically to be improvement. listening post shows us that the evolution of new arrangements of information (new complexity) may not necessarily lead to improvement. hansen and rubin use new information to create a new art; is listening post an improvement over rembrandt's old art? homo sapiens is certainly more artistically pleasing than is e. coli or c. elegans, but hardly better adapted (cohen, 2000) . indeed, in the world of art, fitness has always been measured by survival time; it's only natural. rembrandt's paintings have thrived for hundreds of years and will certainly continue to live with us. influenced by the beauty of newtonian mechanics, biologists have long embraced the hope that if we could inspect the ultimate parts of an organism, we would be able to reduce the complexity of the organism to simple principles-the aim of ultimate understanding. the organism just had to be some sort of machine, however complicated. now we have almost achieved our wish and are close to seeing all the parts of the organism (the genome, the proteome) out on the table. but to our dismay, the organism is not just a complicated clock. even solving the genome project has not graced us with ultimate understanding (cohen and atlan, 2003) . the organism clearly is not a collection of wheels and cogs; the organism is more akin to cyberspace. in place of electromagnetic codes generated by computer networks, the information flowing within and through the cell-life's subunit-is encoded in molecules. but the informational structure of both networks, cell and internet, is similar: each molecule in a cell, like a chat box signal, emerges from a specific origin, bears an address, and carries a message. our problem is that the cell's molecules are not addressed to our minds, so we don't understand them. the mind exists on a different scale than does the cell; the mind and the cell live in different informational landscapes. we are unable to directly see molecular information; we have to translate the cell's molecules and processes into abstract representations: words, numbers, and pictures. the cell looks to us like a seething swarm of molecules, large and small, that appear redundant, pleiotropic, and degenerate (cohen, 2000) . every ligand signals more than one receptor, every receptor binds more than one ligand; every species of molecule has more than one function; and every function seems to be carried out redundantly by different agents. causes cannot be reduced to simple one-to-one relationships between molecules; biologic causality seems more like a complex pattern or web of interactions. the flowing patterns of subunit molecules in the cell, like aggregates of internet signals, make no obvious sense to us, the outside observers. we stand before the cyberspace of the cell and the maelstrom of information that confronts us becomes noise (fig. 6) . the more information we gather, the more confused we become. the flow of information generated by the living cell, viewed from our scale, is turbulence. how can we understand living matter when its complexity exceeds the ability of our minds to remember and process the mass of accumulating information? intrinsic complexity (the organism) leads to extrinsic complexity (our confusion). the informational landscape of the cell-organism-species-society is like the informational landscape of the internet; viewed in the aggregate it is incomprehensible noise. true, minds can be helped by computers. but understanding a cell is not to be had merely by reproducing in silico the complexity of a real cell, even if that were possible. cataloguing the molecules and their connections to simulate the cell on a computer is a useful way to begin. but precise specification is not enough. human understanding is not mere representation-linguistic, mathematical, visual, or auditory; understanding is the exercise of proficiency (cohen, 2005; efroni et al., 2005) . we understand a thing when we know how to interact with it and use it well. thus, we understand complex information by transforming it, as does listening post, into a meaningful signal. we understand complexity by learning to respond to it in new and productive ways; information triggers new thoughts. human understanding is not a static state of knowledge; human understanding is a creative process of interaction with the world (fig. 6) . the information present in the world is a fertile landscape for growing ideas. this functional view of understanding fits the definition of science proposed by the scientist and educator james b. conant, president of harvard university from 1933 to 1953 is "an interconnected series of concepts and conceptual schemes that have developed as the result of experimentation and observation and are fruitful for further experimentation and observation" (conant, 1951) . science, according to conant, is a self-perpetuating process: scientific understanding amounts to doing good experiments that lead to more ideas for better experiments (and leading, in the case of needs, to better solutions). so to understand the cell means to turn its complexity into a metaphor that productively stimulates our minds to devise better experiments, ideas, and treatments. classically, we have been taught that science is driven by the formulation of hypotheses and by experiments designed to discredit them (popper, 2002) . a hypothesis that has been falsified experimentally is then replaced by a modified hypothesis. the new, modified hypothesis too is tested by experimentation and its falsification leads to a third hypothesis. thus, science advances ideally toward the truth by continuously adjusting its hypotheses through experimentation. unfortunately, this description of science may be suitable for certain fundamental aspects of physics and chemistry, but the study of biology and other complex systems doesn't really progress that way. living systems are just too complex to be described adequately by simple hypotheses (pennisi, 2003) . we seem to learn much more by tinkering with them than we do by hypothecating about them. but biology aims for more than mere tinkering; we don't want merely to accumulate data; we want to comprehend essential principles about life. how can masses of complex data be transformed into comprehension? biologists today (and in time to come) are joining forces with information scientists to develop ways to answer that question. computers are helpful. the most primitive of computers puts our memory to shame; our conscious minds are no match for advanced parallel processing. nevertheless, we are endowed with a unique gift. our cognitive advantage over the computer is our ability to see associations, to create and use metaphors. the computer's memory is composed of precisely retrievable lists; our memory is a web of associations-our memory is not the computer's ram. but we, unlike computers, can create art and science, and we can respond to art and science. in closing, i will describe one example, most familiar to me, of the new synthesis between biology and information science-between mind and computer. my colleagues and i have begun to consider ways we might achieve two objectives: to record and catalogue complex scientific data in a precise format amenable to computer-assisted simulation and testing; and to have the data themselves construct representations that stimulate human minds productively. we have termed this two-tiered approach reactive animation (ra). ra emerged from our simulation of the complex development of a key class of cells in the adaptive immune system-t cells (efroni et al., 2003) . in the first tier, we recorded basic information about t-cell development culled from some 400 research papers using the visual language of statecharts to convert the data to a precise computer format (harel, 1987) ; statecharts had been developed by david harel and his colleagues more than 20 years earlier for building and analyzing complex man-made systems (actually, statecharts grew out of the need to coordinate the planning of a new fighter aircraft). statecharts seems suitable to deal with biologically evolved systems and not only with systems generated by human minds; objects such as molecules, cells, and organs can be described in terms of their component parts, interactions, and transitions from state to state, which is the way we actually do our experiments and record the data. moreover, the statecharts formalism is modular; we can easily add new objects, interactions, and states as we accumulate information. and most importantly, we can run the system dynamically on a computer and see the outcomes in statecharts format of any stimulation or modification of the system we care to study. sol efroni, at the time a student jointly supervised by david harel and me, then added a second tier to the representation; he devised a way for the statecharts simulation to produce and direct an animation of the action showing the t cells and other cells moving, interacting, multiplying, differentiating, or dying in the course of development in the organ called the thymus (efroni et al., 2003) . ra makes it possible for us to cross scales-to zoom into individual cells and their component molecules and to zoom out to view thousands of cells forming the thymus as an organ, as we please. ra allows us to experiment with the animated system in silico. best of all, ra shows us the emergence of properties in t-cell development we never dreamed were there; the animation arm of ra reveals to our eyes aspects of the data hidden from intuition. the experiments motivated by ra in silico lead to new laboratory experiments in mundo; the results produce new data for improved statecharts, and the cycle described by conant continues (fig. 7) . the details of ra and of t cells and thymus are well beyond the scope of the present article; but know that ra, like listening post provides us with a representational analogue of how we might approach seemingly incomprehensible complexity; the complexity is reduced to representations that engage the mind. ra transforms the seeming noise of a complex system into a useful informational landscape (fig. 6) . listening post exemplifies how transformations of informational landscapes are at the roots of the tree of life-a tree whose arborizations include biologic evolution and human understanding. look again at figs. 2, 3, and 6; they represent the same processes in essence-only the labels vary. art and science flourish when they transform old information into a narrative of new ideas that engage ever more human minds. this issue of the bulletin for mathematical biology is composed of a series of papers written in memory of our colleague lee segel, professor of applied mathematics at the weizmann institute of science, whose recent death has touched us all. lee's child-like curiosity led him to apply math as an experimental tool to probe the wonder of living systems. he was always asking questions; he always wanted to see the latest experimental results; he always had an interpretation and a new question. lee loved to teach as he loved to learn. the pleasure of his company was grounded in curiosity and wonder. for me, lee was a central influence in a landscape of information that led me to explore ideas beyond the raw data of my particular field of research-cellular immunology. for me, lee transformed experimental information into a narrative of new ideas that engaged my mind in ever evolving ways. he was my teacher as well as my friend. he lives on in all my work. fig. 7 reactive animation. the translation of experimental data into the language of statecharts converts complex masses of basic facts into a format suitable for simulation in silico. reactive animation (ra) empowers the statecharts simulation to generate a realistic animation of the system and allows one to experiment with the representation in silico. the animation in silico reveals emergent properties of the system and stimulates the experimenter to undertake new experiments in mundo. the new data enter the cycle of animated representation and improved experimentation. ra represents the data in a way that engages the mind. self-creation of meaning immune information, self-organization and meaning the limits of mathematics, the unknowable, exploring randomness, conversations with a mathematician tending adam's garden: evolving the cognitive immune self regen und auferstehung: talmud und naturwissenschaft im dialog mit der welt limits to genetic explanations impose limits on the human genome project hiv. escape artist par excellence science and common sense two rounds of whole genome duplication in the ancestral vertebrate toward rigorous comprehension of biological complexity: modeling, execution, and visualization of thymic t-cell maturation a theory for complex systems: reactive animation poised between old and new. the gallery. the wall street journal the spandrels of san marco and the panglossian paradigm: a critique of the adaptationist programme statecharts: a visual formalism for complex systems exploring the relationship between parental relatedness and male reproductive success in the antarctic fur seal arctocephalus gazella the codebreakers: the comprehensive history of secret communication from ancient times to the internet, rev the neutral theory of molecular evolution the evolutionary origin of complex features impacts and evolution: future prospects meaning-making in the immune system tracing life's circuitry darwin machines and the nature of knowledge the logic of scientific discovery, 15th edn on the role of feedback in promoting conflicting goals of the adaptive immune system a mathematical theory of communication. bell syst. tech. j. 30, 50. waddington, c.h., 1940. organizers and genes a new kind of science i am the mauerberger professor of immunology at the weizmann institute of science, the director of the center for the study of emerging diseases and a member of the steering committee of the center for complexity science, jerusalem, and the director of the national institute for biotechnology in the negev, ben-gurion university of the negev. this paper has emerged from discussions with henri atlan, yonatan cohen, sol efroni, david harel, uri hershberg, dan mishmar, ohad parnes, ben rubin, david rubin, eleanor rubin, eitan rubin, lee segel, and sorin solomon. key: cord-018947-d4im0p9e authors: helbing, dirk title: challenges in economics date: 2012-02-10 journal: social self-organization doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-24004-1_16 sha: doc_id: 18947 cord_uid: d4im0p9e in the same way as the hilbert program was a response to the foundational crisis of mathematics [1], this article tries to formulate a research program for the socio-economic sciences. the aim of this contribution is to stimulate research in order to close serious knowledge gaps in mainstream economics that the recent financial and economic crisis has revealed. by identifying weak points of conventional approaches in economics, we identify the scientific problems which need to be addressed. we expect that solving these questions will bring scientists in a position to give better decision support and policy advice. we also indicate, what kinds of insights can be contributed by scientists from other research fields such as physics, biology, computer and social science. in order to make a quick progress and gain a systemic understanding of the whole interconnected socio-economic-environmental system, using the data, information and computer systems available today and in the near future, we suggest a multi-disciplinary collaboration as most promising research approach. static where the world was dynamic, it assumed competitive markets where few existed, it assumed rationality when we knew full well that economic agents were not rational . . . economics had no way of dealing with changing tastes and technology . . . econometrics was equally plagued with intractable problems: economic observations are never randomly drawn and seldom independent, the number of excluded variables is always unmanageably large, the degrees of freedom unacceptably small, the stability of significance tests seldom unequivocably established, the errors in measurement too large to yield meaningful results . . . " [5] . in the following, we will try to identify the scientific challenges that must be addressed to come up with better theories in the near future. this comprises practical challenges, i.e. the real-life problems that must be faced (see sect. 16 .2), and fundamental challenges, i.e. the methodological advances that are required to solve these problems (see sect. 16.3) . after this, we will discuss, which contribution can be made by related scientific disciplines such as econophysics and the social sciences. the intention of this contribution is constructive. it tries to stimulate a fruitful scientific exchange, in order to find the best way out of the crisis. according to our perception, the economic challenges we are currently facing can only be mastered by large-scale, multi-disciplinary efforts and by innovative approaches [6] . we fully recognize the large variety of non-mainstream approaches that has been developed by "heterodox economists". however, the research traditions in economics seem to be so powerful that these are not paid much attention to. besides, there is no agreement on which of the alternative modeling approaches would be the most promising ones, i.e. the heterogeneity of alternatives is one of the problems, which slows down their success. this situation clearly implies institutional challenges as well, but these go beyond the scope of this contribution and will therefore be addressed in the future. since decades, if not since hundreds of years, the world is facing a number of recurrent socio-economic problems, which are obviously hard to solve. before addressing related fundamental scientific challenges in economics, we will therefore point out practical challenges one needs to pay attention to. this basically requires to classify the multitude of problems into packages of interrelated problems. probably, such classification attempts are subjective to a certain extent. at least, the list presented below differs from the one elaborated by lomborg et al. [7] , who identified the following top ten problems: air pollution, security/conflict, disease control, education, climate change, hunger/malnutrition, water sanitation, barriers to migration and trade, transnational terrorism and, finally, women and development. the following (non-ranked) list, in contrast, is more focused on socio-economic factors rather than resource and engineering issues, and it is more oriented at the roots of problems rather than their symptoms: 1. demographic change of the population structure (change of birth rate, migration, integration. . . ) 2. financial and economic (in)stability (government debts, taxation, and inflation/ deflation; sustainability of social benefit systems; consumption and investment behavior. . . ) 3. social, economic and political participation and inclusion (of people of different gender, age, health, education, income, religion, culture, language, preferences; reduction of unemployment. . . ) 4. balance of power in a multi-polar world (between different countries and economic centers; also between individual and collective rights, political and company power; avoidance of monopolies; formation of coalitions; protection of pluralism, individual freedoms, minorities. . . ) 5. collective social behavior and opinion dynamics (abrupt changes in consumer behavior; social contagion, extremism, hooliganism, changing values; breakdown of cooperation, trust, compliance, solidarity. . . ) 6. security and peace (organized crime, terrorism, social unrest, independence movements, conflict, war. . . ) 7. institutional design (intellectual property rights; over-regulation; corruption; balance between global and local, central and decentral control. . . ) 8. sustainable use of resources and environment (consumption habits, travel behavior, sustainable and efficient use of energy and other resources, participation in recycling efforts, environmental protection. . . ) 9. information management (cyber risks, misuse of sensitive data, espionage, violation of privacy; data deluge, spam; education and inheritance of culture. . . ) 10 . public health (food safety; spreading of epidemics [flu, sars, h1n1, hiv], obesity, smoking, or unhealthy diets. . . ) some of these challenges are interdependent. in the following, we will try to identify the fundamental theoretical challenges that need to be addressed in order to understand the above practical problems and to draw conclusions regarding possible solutions. the most difficult part of scientific research is often not to find the right answer. the problem is to ask the right questions. in this context it can be a problem that people are trained to think in certain ways. it is not easy to leave these ways and see the problem from a new angle, thereby revealing a previously unnoticed solution. three factors contribute to this: 1. we may overlook the relevant facts because we have not learned to see them, i.e. we do not pay attention to them. the issue is known from internalized norms, which prevent people from considering possible alternatives. 2. we know the stylized facts, but may not have the right tools at hand to interpret them. it is often difficult to make sense of patterns detected in data. turning data into knowledge is quite challenging. 3. we know the stylized facts and can interpret them, but may not take them seriously enough, as we underestimate their implications. this may result from misjudgements or from herding effects, i.e. from a tendency to follow traditions and majority opinions. in fact, most of the issues discussed below have been pointed out before, but it seems that this did not have an effect on mainstream economics so far or on what decision-makers know about economics. this is probably because mainstream theory has become a norm [8] , and alternative approaches are sanctioned as norm-deviant behavior [9, 10] . as we will try to explain, the following fundamental issues are not just a matter of approximations (which often lead to the right understanding, but wrong numbers). rather they concern fundamental errors in the sense that certain conclusions following from them are seriously misleading. as the recent financial crisis has demonstrated, such errors can be very costly. however, it is not trivial to see what dramatic consequences factors such as dynamics, spatial interactions, randomness, non-linearity, network effects, differentiation and heterogeneity, irreversibility or irrationality can have. despite of criticisms by several nobel prize winners such as reinhard selten (1994), joseph stiglitz and george akerlof (2001) , or daniel kahneman (2002) , the paradigm of the homo economicus, i.e. of the "perfect egoist", is still the dominating approach in economics. it assumes that people would have quasi-infinite memory and processing capacities and would determine the best one among all possible alternative behaviors by strategic thinking (systematic utility optimization), and would implement it into practice without mistakes. the nobel prize winner of 1976, milton friedman, supported the hypothesis of homo economicus by the following argument: "irrational agents will lose money and will be driven out of the market by rational agents" [11] . more recently, robert e. lucas jr., the nobel prize winner of 1995, used the rationality hypothesis to narrow down the class of empirically relevant equilibria [12] . the rational agent hypothesis is very charming, as its implications are clear and it is possible to derive beautiful and powerful economic theorems and theories from it. the best way to illustrate homo economicus is maybe a company that is run by using optimization methods from operation research, applying supercomputers. another example are professional chess players, who are trying to anticipate the possible future moves of their opponents. obviously, in both examples, the future course of actions can not be fully predicted, even if there are no random effects and mistakes. it is, therefore, no wonder that people have repeatedly expressed doubts regarding the realism of the rational agent approach [13, 14] . bertrand russell, for example, claimed: "most people would rather die than think". while this seems to be a rather extreme opinion, the following scientific arguments must be taken seriously: 1. human cognitive capacities are bounded [16, 17] . already phone calls or conversations can reduce people's attention to events in the environment a lot. also, the abilities to memorize facts and to perform complicated logical analyses are clearly limited. 2. in case of np-hard optimization problems, even supercomputers are facing limits, i.e. optimization jobs cannot be performed in real-time anymore. therefore, approximations or simplifications such as the application of heuristics may be necessary. in fact, psychologists have identified a number of heuristics, which people use when making decisions [18] . 3. people perform strategic thinking mainly in important new situations. in normal, everyday situation, however, they seem to pursue a satisficing rather than optimizing strategy [17] . meeting a certain aspiration level rather than finding the optimal strategy can save time and energy spent on problem solving. in many situation, people even seem to perform routine choices [14] , for example, when evading other pedestrians in counterflows. 4. there is a long list of cognitive biases which question rational behavior [19] . for example, individuals are favorable of taking small risks (which are preceived as "chances", as the participation in lotteries shows), but they avoid large risks [20] . furthermore, non-exponential temporal discounting may lead to paradoxical behaviors [21] and requires one to rethink, how future expectations must be modeled. 5. most individuals have a tendency towards other-regarding behavior and fairness [22, 23] . for example, the dictator game [24] and other experiments [25] show that people tend to share, even if there is no reason for this. leaving a tip for the waiter in a restaurant that people visit only once is a typical example (particularly in countries where tipping is not common) [26] . such behavior has often been interpreted as sign of social norms. while social norms can certainly change the payoff structure, it has been found that the overall payoffs resulting from them do not need to create a user or system optimum [27] [28] [29] . this suggests that behavioral choices may be irrational in the sense of non-optimal. a typical example is the existence of unfavorable norms, which are supported by people although nobody likes them [30] . 6. certain optimization problems can have an infinite number of local optima or nash equilibria, which makes it impossible to decide what is the best strategy [31] . 7. convergence towards the optimal solution may require such a huge amount of time that the folk theorem becomes useless. this can make it practically impossible to play the best response strategy [32] . 8. the optimal strategy may be deterministically chaotic, i.e. sensitive to arbitrarily small details of the initial condition, which makes the dynamic solution unpredictable on the long run ("butterfly effect") [33, 34] . this fundamental limit of predictability also implies a limit of control-two circumstances that are even more true for non-deterministic systems with a certain degree of randomness. in conclusion, although the rational agent paradigm (the paradigm of homo economicus) is theoretically powerful and appealing, there are a number of empirical and theoretical facts, which suggest deficiencies. in fact, most methods used in financial trading (such as technical analysis) are not well compatible with the rational agent approach. even if an optimal solution exists, it may be undecidable for practical reasons or for theoretical ones [35, 36] . this is also relevant for the following challenges, as boundedly rational agents may react inefficently and with delays, which questions the efficient market hypothesis, the equilibrium paradigm, and other fundamental concepts, calling for the consideration of spatial, network, and time-dependencies, heterogeneity and correlations etc. it will be shown that these points can have dramatic implications regarding the predictions of economic models. the efficient market hypothesis (emh) was first developed by eugene fama [37] in his ph.d. thesis and rapidly spread among leading economists, who used it as an argument to promote laissez-faire policies. the emh states that current prices reflect all publicly available information and (in its stronger formulation) that prices instantly change to reflect new public information. the idea of self-regulating markets goes back to adam smith [38] , who believed that "the free market, while appearing chaotic and unrestrained, is actually guided to produce the right amount and variety of goods by a so-called "invisible hand"." furthermore, "by pursuing his own interest, [the individual] frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he intends to promote it" [39] . for this reason, adam smith is often considered to be the father of free market economics. curiously enough, however, he also wrote a book on "the theory of moral sentiments" [40] . "his goal in writing the work was to explain the source of mankind's ability to form moral judgements, in spite of man's natural inclinations towards self-interest. smith proposes a theory of sympathy, in which the act of observing others makes people aware of themselves and the morality of their own behavior . . . [and] seek the approval of the "impartial spectator" as a result of a natural desire to have outside observers sympathize with them" [38] . such a reputation-based concept would be considered today as indirect reciprocity [41] . of course, there are criticisms of the efficient market hypothesis [42] , and the nobel prize winner of 2001, joseph stiglitz, even believes that "there is not invisible hand" [43] . the following list gives a number of empirical and theoretical arguments questioning the efficient market hypothesis: 1. examples of market failures are well-known and can result, for example, in cases of monopolies or oligopolies, if there is not enough liquidity or if information symmetry is not given. 2. while the concept of the "invisible hand" assumes something like an optimal self-organization [44] , it is well-known that this requires certain conditions, such as symmetrical interactions. in general, however, self-organization does not necessarily imply system-optimal solutions. stop-and-go traffic [45] or crowd disasters [46] are two obvious examples for systems, in which individuals competitively try to reach individually optimal outcomes, but where the optimal solution is dynamically unstable. 3. the limited processing capacity of boundedly rational individuals implies potential delays in their responses to sensorial inputs, which can cause such instabilities [47] . for example, a delayed adaptation in production systems may contribute to the occurrence of business cycles [48] . the same applies to the labor market of specially skilled people, which cannot adjust on short time scales. even without delayed reactions, however, the competitive optimization of individuals can lead to suboptimal individual results, as the "tragedy of the commons" in public goods dilemmas demonstrates [49, 50] . 4. bubbles and crashes, or more generally, extreme events in financial markets should not occur, if the efficient market hypothesis was correct (see next subsection). 5. collective social behavior such as "herding effects" as well as deviations of human behavior from what is expected from rational agents can lead to such bubbles and crashes [51] , or can further increase their size through feedback effects [52] . cyclical feedbacks leading to oscillations are also known from the beer game [53] or from business cycles [48] . the efficient market paradigm implies the equilibrium paradigm. this becomes clear, if we split it up into its underlying hypotheses: 1. the market can be in equilibrium, i.e. there exists an equilibrium. 2. there is one and only one equilibrium. 3. the equilibrium is stable, i.e. any deviations from the equilibrium due to "fluctuations" or "perturbations" tend to disappear eventually. 4. the relaxation to the equilibrium occurs at an infinite rate. note that, in order to act like an "invisible hand", the stable equilibrium (nash equilibrium) furthermore needs to be a system optimum, i.e. to maximize the average utility. this is true for coordination games, when interactions are well-mixed and exploration behavior as well as transaction costs can be neglected [54] . however, it is not fulfilled by so-called social dilemmas [49] . let us discuss the evidence for the validity of the above hypotheses one by one: 1. a market is a system of extremely many dynamically coupled variables. theoretically, it is not obvious that such a system would have a stationary solution. for example, the system could behave periodic, quasi-periodic, chaotic, or turbulent [81-83, 85-87, 94] . in all these cases, there would be no convergence to a stationary solution. 2. if a stationary solution exists, it is not clear that there are no further stationary solutions. if many variables are non-linearly coupled, the phenomenon of multistability can easily occur [55] . that is, the solution to which the system converges may not only depend on the model parameters, but also on the initial condition, history, or perturbation size. such facts are known as path-dependencies or hysteresis effects and are usually visualized by so-called phase diagrams [56] . 3. in systems of non-linearly interacting variables, the existence of a stationary solution does not necessarily imply that it is stable, i.e. that the system will converge to this solution. for example, the stationary solution could be a focal point with orbiting solutions (as for the classical lotka-volterra equations [57] ), or it could be unstable and give rise to a limit cycle [58] or a chaotic solution [33] , for example (see also item 1). in fact, experimental results suggest that volatility clusters in financial markets may be a result of over-reactions to deviations from the fundamental value [59] . 4. an infinite relaxation rate is rather unusual, as most decisions and related implemenations take time [15, 60] . the points listed in the beginning of this subsection are also questioned by empirical evidence. in this connection, one may mention the existence of business cycles [48] or unstable orders and deliveries observed in the experimental beer game [53] . moreover, bubbles and crashes have been found in financial market games [61] . today, there seems to be more evidence against than for the equilibrium paradigm. in the past, however, most economists assumed that bubbles and crashes would not exist (and many of them still do). the following quotes are quite typical for this kind of thinking (from [62] ): in 2004, the federal reserve chairman of the u.s., alan greenspan, stated that the rise in house values was "not enough in our judgment to raise major concerns". in july 2005 when asked about the possibility of a housing bubble and the potential for this to lead to a recession in the future, the present u.s. federal reserve chairman ben bernanke (then chairman of the council of economic advisors) said: "it's a pretty unlikely possibility. we've never had a decline in housing prices on a nationwide basis. so, what i think is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. i don't think it's going to drive the economy too far from it's full path though." as late as may 2007 bernanke stated that the federal reserve "do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy". according to the classical interpretation, sudden changes in stock prices result from new information, e.g. from innovations ("technological shocks"). the dynamics in such systems has, for example, been described by the method of comparative statics (i.e. a series of snapshots). here, the system is assumed to be in equilibrium in each moment, but the equilibrium changes adiabatically (i.e. without delay), as the system parameters change (e.g. through new facts). such a treatment of system dynamics, however, has certain deficiencies: 1. the approach cannot explain changes in or of the system, such as phase transitions ("systemic shifts"), when the system is at a critical point ("tipping point"). 2. it does not allow one to understand innovations and other changes as results of an endogeneous system dynamics. 3. it cannot describe effects of delays or instabilities, such as overshooting, self-organization, emergence, systemic breakdowns or extreme events (see sect. 16.3.4). 4. it does not allow one to study effects of different time scales. for example, when there are fast autocatalytic (self-reinfocing) effects and slow inhibitory effects, this may lead to pattern formation phenomena in space and time [63, 64] . the formation of settlements, where people agglomerate in space, may serve as an example [65, 66] . 5. it ignores long-term correlations such as memory effects. 6. it neglects frictional effects, which are often proportional to change ("speed") and occur in most complex systems. without friction, however, it is difficult to understand entropy and other path-dependent effects, in particular irreversibility (i.e. the fact that the system may not be able to get back to the previous state) [67] . for example, the unemployment rate has the property that it does not go back to the previous level in most countries after a business cycle [68] . comparative statics is, of course, not the only method used in economics to describe the dynamics of the system under consideration. as in physics and other fields, one may use a linear approximation around a stationary solution to study the response of the system to fluctuations or perturbations [69] . such a linear stability analysis allows one to study, whether the system will return to the stationary solution (which is the case for a stable [nash] equilibrium) or not (which implies that the system will eventually be driven into a new state or regime). in fact, the great majority of statistical analyses use linear models to fit empirical data (also when they do not involve time-dependencies). it is know, however, that linear models have special features, which are not representative for the rich variety of possible functional dependencies, dynamics, and outcomes. therefore, the neglection of non-linearity has serious consequences: 1. as it was mentioned before, phenomena like multiple equilibria, chaos or turbulence cannot be understood by linear models. the same is true for selforganization phenomena or emergence. additionally, in non-linearly coupled systems, usually "more is different", i.e. the system may change its behavior fundamentally as it grows beyond a certain size. furthermore, the system is often hard to predict and difficult to control (see sect. 16.3.8). 2. linear modeling tends to overlook that a strong coupling of variables, which would show a normally distributed behavior in separation, often leads to fat tail distributions (such as "power laws") [70, 71] . this implies that extreme events are much more frequent than expected according to a gaussian distribution. for example, when additive noise is replaced by multiplicative noise, a number of surprising phenomena may result, including noise-induced transitions [72] or directed random walks ("ratchet effects") [73] . 3. phenomena such as catastrophes [74] or phase transition ("system shifts") [75] cannot be well understood within a linear modeling framework. the same applies to the phenomenon of "self-organized criticality" [79] (where the system drives itself to a critical state, typically with power-law characteristics) or cascading effects, which can result from network interactions (overcritically challenged network nodes or links) [77, 78] . it should be added that the relevance of network effects resulting from the on-going globalization is often underestimated. for example, "the stock market crash of 1987, began with a small drop in prices which triggered an avalanche of sell orders in computerized trading programs, causing a further price decline that triggered more automatic sales." [80] therefore, while linear models have the advantage of being analytically solvable, they are often unrealistic. studying non-linear behavior, in contrast, often requires numerical computational approaches. it is likely that most of today's unsolved economic puzzles cannot be well understood through linear models, no matter how complicated they may be (in terms of the number of variables and parameters) [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] . the following list mentions some areas, where the importance of non-linear interdependencies is most likely underestimated: â�¢ collective opinions, such as trends, fashions, or herding effects. â�¢ the success of new (and old) technologies, products, etc. â�¢ cultural or opinion shifts, e.g. regarding nuclear power, genetically manipulated food, etc. â�¢ the "fitness" or competitiveness of a product, value, quality perceptions, etc. â�¢ the respect for copyrights. â�¢ social capital (trust, cooperation, compliance, solidarity, . . . ). â�¢ booms and recessions, bubbles and crashes. â�¢ bank panics. â�¢ community, cluster, or group formation. â�¢ relationships between different countries, including war (or trade war) and peace. another common simplification in economic modeling is the representative agent approach, which is known in physics as mean field approximation. within this framework, time-dependencies and non-linear dependencies are often considered, but it is assumed that the interaction with other agents (e.g. of one company with all the other companies) can be treated as if this agent would interact with an average agent, the "representative agent". let us illustrate this with the example of the public goods dilemma. here, everyone can decide whether to make an individual contribution to the public good or not. the sum of all contributions is multiplied by a synergy factor, reflecting the benefit of cooperation, and the resulting value is equally shared among all people. the prediction of the representative agent approach is that, due to the selfishness of agents, a "tragedy of the commons" would result [49] . according to this, everybody should free-ride, i.e. nobody should make a contribution to the public good and nobody would gain anything. however, if everybody would contribute, everybody could multiply his or her contribution by the synergy factor. this example is particularly relevant as society is facing a lot of public goods problems and would not work without cooperation. everything from the creation of public infrastructures (streets, theaters, universities, libraries, schools, the world wide web, wikipedia etc.) over the use of environmental resources (water, forests, air, etc.) or of social benefit systems (such as a public health insurance), maybe even the creation and maintainance of a commonly shared language and culture are public goods problems (although the last examples are often viewed as coordination problems). even the process of creating public goods is a public good [95] . while it is a well-known problem that people tend to make unfair contributions to public goods or try to get a bigger share of them, individuals cooperate much more than one would expect according to the representative agent approach. if they would not, society could simply not exist. in economics, one tries to solve the problem by introducing taxes (i.e. another incentive structure) or a "shadow of the future" (i.e. a strategic optimization over infinite time horizons in accordance with the rational agent approach) [96, 97] . both comes down to changing the payoff structure in a way that transforms the public good problem into another one that does not constitute a social dilemma [98] . however, there are other solutions of the problem. when the realm of the mean-field approximation underlying the representative agent approach is left and spatial or network interactions or the heterogeneity among agents are considered, a miracle occurs: cooperation can survive or even thrive through correlations and co-evolutionary effects [99] [100] [101] . a similar result is found for the public goods game with costly punishment. here, the representative agent model predicts that individuals avoid to invest into punishment, so that punishment efforts eventually disappear (and, as a consequence, cooperation as well). however, this "second-order free-rider problem" is naturally resolved and cooperation can spread, if one discards the mean-field approximation and considers the fact that interactions take place in space or social networks [56] . societies can overcome the tragedy of the commons even without transforming the incentive structure through taxes. for example, social norms as well as group dynamical and reputation effects can do so [102] . the representative agent approach implies just the opposite conclusion and cannot well explain the mechanisms on which society is built. it is worth pointing out that the relevance of public goods dilemmas is probably underestimated in economics. partially related to adam smith's belief in an "invisible hand", one often assumes underlying coordination games and that they would automatically create a harmony between an individually and system optimal state in the course of time [54] . however, running a stable financial system and economy is most likely a public goods problem. considering unemployment, recessions always go along with a breakdown of solidarity and cooperation. efficient production clearly requires mutual cooperation (as the counter-example of countries with many strikes illustrates). the failure of the interbank market when banks stop lending to each other, is a good example for the breakdown of both, trust and cooperation. we must be aware that there are many other systems that would not work anymore, if people would lose their trust: electronic banking, e-mail and internet use, facebook, ebusiness and egovernance, for example. money itself would not work without trust, as bank panics and hyperinflation scenarios show. similarly, cheating customers by selling low-quality products or selling products at overrated prices, or by manipulating their choices by advertisements rather than informing them objectively and when they want, may create profits on the short run, but it affects the trust of customers (and their willingness to invest). the failure of the immunization campaign during the swine flu pandemics may serve as an example. furthermore, people would probably spend more money, if the products of competing companies were better compatible with each other. therefore, on the long run, more cooperation among companies and with the customers would pay off and create additional value. besides providing a misleading picture of how cooperation comes about, there are a number of other deficiencies of the representative agent approach, which are listed below: 1. correlations between variables are neglected, which is acceptable only for "well-mixing" systems. according to what is known from critical phenomena in physics, this approximation is valid only, when the interactions take place in high-dimensional spaces or if the system elements are well connected. (however, as the example of the public goods dilemma showed, this case does not necessarily have beneficial consequences. well-mixed interactions could rather cause a breakdown of social or economic institutions, and it is conceivable that this played a role in the recent financial crisis.) 2. percolation phenomena, describing how far an idea, innovation, technology, or (computer) virus spreads through a social or business network, are not well reproduced, as they depend on details of the network structure, not just on the average node degree [103] . 3. the heterogeneity of agents is ignored. for this reason, factors underlying economic exchange, perturbations, or systemic robustness [104] cannot be well described. moreover, as socio-economic differentiation and specialization imply heterogeneity, they cannot be understood as emergent phenomena within a representative agent approach. finally, it is not possible to grasp innovation without the consideration of variability. in fact, according to evolutionary theory, the innovation rate would be zero, if the variability was zero [105] . furthermore, in order to explain innovation in modern societies, schumpeter introduced the concept of the "political entrepreneur" [106] , an extra-ordinarily gifted person capable of creating disruptive change and innovation. such an extraordinary individual can, by definition, not be modeled by a "representative agent". one of the most important drawbacks of the representative agent approach is that it cannot explain the fundamental fact of economic exchange, since it requires one to assume a heterogeneity in resources or production costs, or to consider a variation in the value of goods among individuals. ken arrow, nobel prize winner in 1972, formulated this point as follows [107] : "one of the things that microeconomics teaches you is that individuals are not alike. there is heterogeneity, and probably the most important heterogeneity here is heterogeneity of expectations. if we didn't have heterogeneity, there would be no trade." we close this section by mentioning that economic approaches, which go beyond the representative agent approach, can be found in refs. [108, 109] . another deficiency of economic theory that needs to be mentioned is the lack of a link between micro-and macroeconomics. neoclassical economics implicitly assumes that individuals make their decisions in isolation, using only the information received from static market signals. within this oversimplified framework, macro-aggregates are just projections of some representative agent behavior, instead of the outcome of complex interactions with asymmetric information among a myriad of heterogeneous agents. in principle, it should be understandable how the macroeconomic dynamics results from the microscopic decisions and interactions on the level of producers and consumers [81, 110] (as it was possible in the past to derive micro-macro links for other systems with a complex dynamical behavior such as interactive vehicle traffic [111] ). it should also be comprehensible how the macroscopic level (the aggregate econonomic situation) feeds back on the microscopic level (the behavior of consumers and producers), and to understand the economy as a complex, adaptive, self-organizing system [112, 113] . concepts from evolutionary theory [114] and ecology [115] appear to be particularly promising [116] . this, however, requires a recognition of the importance of heterogeneity for the system (see the the previous subsection). the lack of ecological thinking implies not only that the sensitive network interdependencies between the various agents in an economic system (as well as minority solutions) are not properly valued. it also causes deficiencies in the development and implementation of a sustainable economic approach based on recycling and renewable resources. today, forestry science is probably the best developed scientific discipline concerning sustainability concepts [117] . economic growth to maintain social welfare is a serious misconception. from other scientific disciplines, it is well known that stable pattern formation is also possible for a constant (and potentially sustainable) inflow of energy [69, 118] . one of the great achievements of economics is that it has developed a multitude of methods to use scarce resources efficiently. a conventional approach to this is optimization. in principle, there is nothing wrong about this approach. nevertheless, there are a number of problems with the way it is usually applied: 1. one can only optimize for one goal at a time, while usually, one needs to meet several objectives. this is mostly addressed by weighting the different goals (objectives), by executing a hierarchy of optimization steps (through ranking and prioritization), or by applying a satisficing strategy (requiring a minimum performance for each goal) [119, 120] . however, when different optimization goals are in conflict with each other (such as maximizing the throughput and minimizing the queue length in a production system), a sophisticated timedependent strategy may be needed [121] . high profit? best customer satisfaction? large throughput? competitive advantage? resilience? [122] in fact, the choice of the optimization function is arbitrary to a certain extent and, therefore, the result of optimization may vary largely. goal selection requires strategic decisions, which may involve normative or moral factors (as in politics). in fact, one can often observe that, in the course of time, different goal functions are chosen. moreover, note that the maximization of certain objectives such as resilience or "fitness" depends not only on factors that are under the control of a company. resilience and "fitness" are functions of the whole system, in particularly, they also depend on the competitors and the strategies chosen by them. 3. the best solution may be the combination of two bad solutions and may, therefore, be overlooked. in other words, there are "evolutionary dead ends", so that gradual optimization may not work. (this problem can be partially overcome by the application of evolutionary mechanisms [120] ). 4. in certain systems (such as many transport, logistic, or production systems), optimization tends to drive the system towards instability, since the point of maximum efficiency is often in the neighborhood or even identical with the point of breakdown of performance. such breakdowns in capacity or performance can result from inefficiencies due to dynamic interaction effects. for example, when traffic flow reaches its maximum capacity, sooner or later it breaks down. as a consequence, the road capacity tends to drop during the time period where it is most urgently needed, namely during the rush hour [45, 123] . 5 . optimization often eliminates reduncancies in the system and, thereby, increases the vulnerability to perturbations, i.e. it decreases robustness and resilience. 6. optimization tends to eliminate heterogeneity in the system [80] , while heterogeneity frequently supports adaptability and resilience. 7. optimization is often performed with centralized concepts (e.g. by using supercomputers that process information collected all over the system). such centralized systems are vulnerable to disturbances or failures of the central control unit. they are also sensitive to information overload, wrong selection of control parameters, and delays in adaptive feedback control. in contrast, decentralized control (with a certain degree of autonomy of local control units) may perform better, when the system is complex and composed of many heterogeneous elements, when the optimization problem is np hard, the degree of fluctuations is large, and predictability is restricted to short time periods [77, 124] . under such conditions, decentralized control strategies can perform well by adaptation to the actual local conditions, while being robust to perturbations. urban traffic light control is a good example for this [121, 125] . 8. further on, today's concept of quality control appears to be awkward. it leads to a never-ending contest, requiring people and organizations to fulfil permanently increasing standards. this leads to over-emphasizing measured performance criteria, while non-measured success factors are neglected. the engagement into non-rewarded activities is discouraged, and innovation may be suppressed (e.g. when evaluating scientists by means of their h-index, which requires them to focus on a big research field that generates many citations in a short time). while so-called "beauty contests" are considered to produce the best results, they will eventually absorb more and more resources for this contest, while less and less time remains for the work that is actually to be performed, when the contest is won. besides, a large number of competitors have to waste considerable resources for these contests which, of course, have to be paid by someone. in this way, private and public sectors (from physicians over hospitals, administrations, up to schools and universities) are aching under the evaluationrelated administrative load, while little time remains to perform the work that the corresponding experts have been trained for. it seems naã¯ve to believe that this would not waste resources. rather than making use of individual strengths, which are highly heterogeneous, today's way of evaluating performance enforces a large degree of conformity. there are also some problems with parameter fitting, a method based on optimization as well. in this case, the goal function is typically an error function or a likelihood function. not only are calibration methods often "blindly" applied in practice (by people who are not experts in statistics), which can lead to overfitting (the fitting of meaningless "noise"), to the neglection of collinearities (implying largely variable parameter values), or to inaccurate and problematic parameter determinations (when the data set is insufficient in size, for example, when large portfolios are to be optimized [126] ). as estimates for past data are not necessarily indicative for the future, making predictions with interpolation approaches can be quite problematic (see also sect. 16.3.3 for the challenge of time dependence). moreover, classical calibration methods do not reveal inappropriate model specifications (e.g. linear ones, when non-linear models would be needed, or unsuitable choices of model variables). finally, they do not identify unknown unknowns (i.e. relevant explanatory variables, which have been overlooked in the modeling process). managing economic systems is a particular challenge, not only for the reasons discussed in the previous section. as large economic systems belong to the class of complex systems, they are hard or even impossible to manage with classical control approaches [76, 77] . complex systems are characterized by a large number of system elements (e.g. individuals, companies, countries, . . . ), which have non-linear or network interactions causing mutual dependencies and responses. such systems tend to behave dynamic rather than static and probabilistic rather than deterministic. they usually show a rich, hardly predictable, and sometimes paradoxical system behavior. therefore, they challenge our way of thinking [127] , and their controllability is often overestimated (which is sometimes paraphrased as "illusion of control") [80, 128, 129] . in particular, causes and effects are typically not proportional to each other, which makes it difficult to predict the impact of a control attempt. a complex system may be unresponsive to a control attempt, or the latter may lead to unexpected, large changes in the system behavior (so-called "phase transitions", "regime shifts", or "catastrophes") [75] . the unresponsiveness is known as principle of le chatelier or goodhart's law [130] , according to which a complex system tends to counteract external control attempts. however, regime shifts can occur, when the system gets close to so-called "critical points" (also known as "tipping points"). examples are sudden changes in public opinion (e.g. from pro to anti-war mood, from a smoking tolerance to a public smoking ban, or from buying energy-hungry sport utilities vehicles (suvs) to buying environmentally-friendly cars). particularly in case of network interactions, big changes may have small, no, or unexpected effects. feedback loops, unwanted side effects, and circuli vitiosi are quite typical. delays may cause unstable system behavior (such as bull-whip effects) [53] , and over-critical perturbations can create cascading failures [78] . systemic breakdowns (such as large-scale blackouts, bankruptcy cascades, etc.) are often a result of such domino or avalanche effects [77] , and their probability of occurrence as well as their resulting damage are usually underestimated. further examples are epidemic spreading phenomena or disasters with an impact on the socio-economic system. a more detailed discussion is given in refs. [76, 77] . other factors contributing to the difficulty to manage economic systems are the large heterogeneity of system elements and the considerable level of randomness as well as the possibility of a chaotic or turbulent dynamics (see sect. 16.3.4) . furthermore, the agents in economic systems are responsive to information, which can create self-fulfilling or self-destroying prophecy effects. inflation may be viewed as example of such an effect. interestingly, in some cases one even does not know in advance, which of these effects will occur. it is also not obvious that the control mechanisms are well designed from a cybernetic perspective, i.e. that we have sufficient information about the system and suitable control variables to make control feasible. for example, central banks do not have terribly many options to influence the economic system. among them are performing open-market operations (to control money supply), adjustments in fractional-reserve banking (keeping only a limited deposit, while lending a large part of the assets to others), or adaptations in the discount rate (the interest rate charged to banks for borrowing short-term funds directly from a central bank). nevertheless, the central banks are asked to meet multiple goals such as: â�¢ to guarantee well-functioning and robust financial markets. â�¢ to support economic growth. â�¢ to balance between inflation and unemployment. â�¢ to keep exchange rates within reasonable limits. furthermore, the one-dimensional variable of "money" is also used to influence individual behavior via taxes (by changing behavioral incentives). it is questionable, whether money can optimally meet all these goals at the same time (see sect. 16.3.7) . we believe that a computer, good food, friendship, social status, love, fairness, and knowledge can only to a certain extent be replaced by and traded against each other. probably for this reason, social exchange comprises more than just material exchange [131] [132] [133] . it is conceivable that financial markets as well are trying to meet too many goals at the same time. this includes: â�¢ to match supply and demand. â�¢ to discover a fair price. â�¢ to raise the foreign direct investment (fdi). â�¢ to couple local economies with the international system. â�¢ to facilitate large-scale investments. â�¢ to boost development. â�¢ to share risk. â�¢ to support a robust economy, and â�¢ to create opportunities (to gamble, to become rich, etc.). therefore, it would be worth stuyding the system from a cybernetic control perspective. maybe, it would work better to separate some of these functions from each other rather than mixing them. another aspect that tends to be overlooked in mainstream economics is the relevance of psychological and social factors such as emotions, creativity, social norms, herding effects, etc. it would probably be wrong to interpret these effects just as a result of perception biases (see sect. 16.3.1) . most likely, these human factors serve certain functions such as supporting the creation of public goods [102] or collective intelligence [134, 135] . as bruno frey has pointed out, economics should be seen from a social science perspective [136] . in particular, research on happiness has revealed that there are more incentives than just financial ones that motivate people to work hard [133] . interestingly, there are quite a number of factors which promote volunteering [132] . it would also be misleading to judge emotions from the perspective of irrational behavior. they are a quite universal and a relatively energy-consuming way of signalling. therefore, they are probably more reliable than non-emotional signals. moreover, they create empathy and, consequently, stimulate mutual support and a readiness for compromises. it is quite likely that this creates a higher degree of cooperativeness in social dilemma situations and, thereby, a higher payoff on average as compared to emotionless decisions, which often have drawbacks later on. finally, there is no good theory that would allow one to assess the relevance of information in economic systems. most economic models do not consider information as an explanatory variable, although information is actually a stronger driving force of urban growth and social dynamics than energy [137] . while we have an information theory to determine the number of bits required to encode a message, we are lacking a theory, which would allow us to assess what kind of information is relevant or important, or what kind of information will change the social or economic world, or history. this may actually be largely dependent on the perception of pieces of information, and on normative or moral issues filtering or weighting information. moreover, we lack theories describing what will happen in cases of coincidence or contradiction of several pieces of information. when pieces of information interact, this can change their interpretation and, thereby, the decisions and behaviors resulting from them. that is one of the reasons why socio-economic systems are so hard to predict: "unknown unknowns", structural instabilities, and innovations cause emergent results and create a dynamics of surprise [138] . the problems discussed in the previous two sections pose interesting practical and fundamental challenges for economists, but also other disciplines interested in understanding economic systems. econophysics, for example, pursues a physical approach to economic systems, applying methods from statistical physics [81] , network theory [139, 140] , and the theory of complex systems [85, 87] . a contribution of physics appears quite natural, in fact, not only because of its tradition in detecting and modeling regularities in large data sets [141] . physics also has a lot of experience how to theoretically deal with problems such as time-dependence, fluctuations, friction, entropy, non-linearity, strong interactions, correlations, heterogeneity, and many-particle simulations (which can be easily extended towards multi-agent simulations). in fact, physics has influenced economic modeling already in the past. macroeconomic models, for example, were inspired by thermodynamics. more recent examples of relevant contributions by physicists concern models of self-organizing conventions [54] , of geographic agglomeration [65] , of innovation spreading [142] , or of financial markets [143] , to mention just a few examples. one can probably say that physicists have been among the pioneers calling for new approaches in economics [81, 87, [143] [144] [145] [146] [147] . a particularly visionary book beside wolfgang weidlich's work was the "introduction to quantitative aspects of social phenomena" by elliott w. montroll and wade w. badger, which addressed by mathematical and empirical analysis subjects as diverse as population dynamics, the arms race, speculation patterns in stock markets, congestion in vehicular traffic as well as the problems of atmospheric pollution, city growth and developing countries already in 1974 [148] . unfortunately, it is impossible in our paper to reflect the numerous contributions of the field of econophysics in any adequate way. the richness of scientific contributions is probably reflected best by the econophysics forum run by yi-cheng zhang [149] . many econophysics solutions are interesting, but so far they are not broad and mighty enough to replace the rational agent paradigm with its large body of implications and applications. nevertheless, considering the relatively small number of econophysicists, there have been many promising results. the probably largest fraction of publications in econophysics in the last years had a data-driven or computer modeling approach to financial markets [143] . but econophyics has more to offer than the analysis of financial data (such as fluctuations in stock and foreign currency exchange markets), the creation of interaction models for stock markets, or the development of risk management strategies. other scientists have focused on statistical laws underlying income and wealth distributions, nonlinear market dynamics, macroeconomic production functions and conditions for economic growth or agglomeration, sustainable economic systems, business cycles, microeconomic interaction models, network models, the growth of companies, supply and production systems, logistic and transport networks, or innovation dynamics and diffusion. an overview of subjects is given, for example, by ref. [152] and the contributions to annual spring workshop of the physics of socio-economic systems division of the dpg [153] . to the dissatisfaction of many econophysicists, the transfer of knowledge often did not work very well or, if so, has not been well recognized [150] . besides scepticism on the side of many economists with regard to novel approaches introduced by "outsiders", the limited resonance and level of interdisciplinary exchange in the past was also caused in part by econophysicists. in many cases, questions have been answered, which no economist asked, rather than addressing puzzles economists are interested in. apart from this, the econophysics work was not always presented in a way that linked it to the traditions of economics and pointed out deficiencies of existing models, highlighting the relevance of the new approach well. typical responses are: why has this model been proposed and not another one? why has this simplification been used (e.g. an ising model of interacting spins rather than a rational agent model)? why are existing models not good enough to describe the same facts? what is the relevance of the work compared to previous publications? what practical implications does the finding have? what kind of paradigm shift does the approach imply? can existing models be modified or extended in a way that solves the problem without requiring a paradigm shift? correspondingly, there have been criticisms not only by mainstream economists, but also by colleagues, who are open to new approaches [151] . therefore, we would like to suggest to study the various economic subjects from the perspective of the above-mentioned fundamental challenges, and to contrast econophysics models with traditional economic models, showing that the latter leave out important features. it is important to demonstrate what properties of economic systems cannot be understood for fundamental reasons within the mainstream framework (i.e. cannot be dealt with by additional terms within the modeling class that is conventionally used). in other words, one needs to show why a paradigm shift is unavoidable, and this requires careful argumentation. we are not claiming that this has not been done in the past, but it certainly takes an additional effort to explain the essence of the econophysics approach in the language of economics, particularly as mainstream economics may not always provide suitable terms and frameworks to do this. this is particularly important, as the number of econophysicists is small compared to the number of economists, i.e. a minority wants to convince an established majority. to be taken seriously, one must also demonstrate a solid knowledge of related previous work of economists, to prevent the stereotypical reaction that the subject of the paper has been studied already long time ago (tacitly implying that it does not require another paper or model to address what has already been looked at before). a reasonable and promising strategy to address the above fundamental and practical challenges is to set up multi-disciplinary collaborations in order to combine the best of all relevant scientific methods and knowledge. it seems plausible that this will generate better models and higher impact than working in separation, and it will stimulate scientific innovation. physicists can contribute with their experience in handling large data sets, in creating and simulating mathematical models, in developing useful approximations, in setting up laboratory experiments and measurement concepts. current research activities in economics do not seem to put enough focus on: â�¢ modeling approaches for complex systems [154] . â�¢ computational modeling of what is not analytically tractable anymore, e.g. by agent-based models [155] [156] [157] . â�¢ testable predictions and their empirical or experimental validation [164] . â�¢ managing complexity and systems engineering approaches to identify alternative ways of organizing financial markets and economic systems [91, 93, 165] , and â�¢ an advance testing of the effectiveness, efficiency, safety, and systemic impact (side effects) of innovations, before they are implemented in economic systems. this is in sharp contrast to mechanical, electrical, nuclear, chemical and medical drug engineering, for example. expanding the scope of economic thinking and paying more attention to these natural, computer and engineering science aspects will certainly help to address the theoretical and practical challenges posed by economic systems. besides physics, we anticipate that also evolutionary biology, ecology, psychology, neuroscience, and artificial intelligence will be able to make significant contributions to the understanding of the roots of economic problems and how to solve them. in conclusion, there are interesting scientific times ahead. it is a good question, whether answering the above list of fundamental challenges will sooner or later solve the practical problems as well. we think, this is a precondition, but it takes more, namely the consideration of social factors. in particular, the following questions need to be answered: 8. how do costly punishment, antisocial punishment, and discrimination come about? 9. how can the formation of social norms and conventions, social roles and socialization, conformity and integration be understood? 10. how do language and culture evolve? 11. how to comprehend the formation of group identity and group dynamics? what are the laws of coalition formation, crowd behavior, and social movements? 12. how to understand social networks, social structure, stratification, organizations and institutions? 13. how do social differentiation, specialization, inequality and segregation come about? 14. how to model deviance and crime, conflicts, violence, and wars? 15. how to understand social exchange, trading, and market dynamics? we think that, despite the large amount of research performed on these subjects, they are still not fully understood. the ultimate goal would be to formulate mathematical models, which would allow one to understand these issues as emergent phenomena based on first principles, e.g. as a result of (co-)evolutionary processes. such first principles would be the basic facts of human capabilities and the kinds of interactions resulting from them, namely: 1. birth, death, and reproduction. 2. the need of and competition for resources (such as food and water). 3. the ability to observe their environment (with different senses). 4. the capability to memorize, learn, and imitate. 5. empathy and emotions. 6. signaling and communication abilities. 7. constructive (e.g. tool-making) and destructive (e.g. fighting) abilities. 8. mobility and (limited) carrying capacity. 9. the possibility of social and economic exchange. such features can, in principle, be implemented in agent-based models [158] [159] [160] [161] [162] [163] . computer simulations of many interacting agents would allow one to study the phenomena emerging in the resulting (artificial or) model societies, and to compare them with stylized facts [163, 168, 169] . the main challenge, however, is not to program a seemingly realistic computer game. we are looking for scientific models, i.e. the underlying assumptions need to be validated, and this requires to link computer simulations with empirical and experimental research [170] , and with massive (but privacy-respecting) mining of social interaction data [141] . in the ideal case, there would also be an analytical understanding in the end, as it has been recently gained for interactive driver behavior [111] . as well as for inspiring discussions during a visioneer workshop in zurich from january 13 how to understand human decision-making? how to explain deviations from rational choice theory and the decision-theoretical paradoxes? why are people risk averse? 2. how does consciousness and self-consciousness come about? how to 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economics managing complexity: concepts, insights, applications engineering economy statistical physics of social dynamics the future of social experimenting the authors are grateful for partial financial support by the eth competence center "coping with crises in complex socio-economic systems" (ccss) through eth research grant ch1-01 08-2 and by the future and emerging technologies programme fp7-cosi-ict of the european commission through the project visioneer (grant no.: 248438). they would like to thank for feedbacks on the manuscript by kenett dror, tobias preis and gabriele tedeschi key: cord-013377-d4tbf05a authors: ungurean, ioan; gaitan, nicoleta cristina title: a software architecture for the industrial internet of things—a conceptual model date: 2020-09-30 journal: sensors (basel) doi: 10.3390/s20195603 sha: doc_id: 13377 cord_uid: d4tbf05a the internet of things (iot) is an emerging concept that has revolutionized the use of new technologies in everyday life. the economic impact of iot becoming very important, and it began to be used in the industrial environment under the name of the industrial internet of things (iiot) concept, which is a sub-domain of iot. the iiot changes the way industrial processes are controlled and monitored, increasing operating efficiency. this article proposes a software architecture for iiot that has a low degree of abstraction compared to the reference architectures presented in the literature. the architecture is organized on four-layer and it integrates the latest concepts related to fog and edge computing. these concepts are activated through the use of fog/edge/gateway nodes, where the processing of data acquired from things is performed and it is the place where things interact with each other in the virtual environment. the main contributions of this paper are the proposal and description of a complete iiot software architecture, the use of a unified address space, and the use of the computing platform based on soc (system on chip) with specialized co-processors in order to be able to execute in real-time certain time-critical operations specific to the industrial environment. the internet of things (iot) [1, 2] is an emerging concept that changes the interactions of people with things in everyday life. iot [3] allows the connection of ubiquitous objects/things to the internet in order to provide innovative services that can lead to time-and money-saving in the daily activity of the individuals and that can increase the quality of life [4] . the iot concept is applied in a wide variety of applications such as smart building [5, 6] smart transport [7] , smart cities [8] , smart healthcare [9, 10] , and smart living with the aim to provide new services and an efficiency of the operating costs. in the design and development of iot applications, existing technologies can be used to activate the iot concept, but new technologies can be developed to help develop the specific applications. initially, the iot concept uses only wireless technologies for connection of the things to the internet but now it can use any available technologies, wired and wireless. in fact, iot can reuse wired or wireless communication technologies that have been used in other types of application in which various devices can connect to a computing system directly or through a gateway. the things/objects form everyday life are brought into the virtual environment through sensors or other methods of acquiring real-data from their environment, such as human-machine interfaces. acquired data or virtual things are transmitted to computing platforms where they are processed, they interact between them, and decisions are made, decisions that can be transmitted to the execution sensors 2020, 20, 5603 3 of 19 in the design and development of iiot solutions, the main issues and challenges are: • the largest number and great diversity of fieldbuses and devices used in the industrial environment; • the compliance with real-time requirements specific to the industrial applications; • interoperability between fieldbuses and devices; • interoperability between iiot systems. in the specialized literature, several reference architectures for iot and iiot are proposed, but these are abstract models which do not deal with how to integrate things from the industrial environment, especially as in this environment are used communication systems (fieldbuses) with specific capabilities such as real-time monitoring and control of time-critical operations. practical examples are also presented in the specialized literature, but these solutions are designed and developed for a certain type of network and a small number of device types. this paper proposes a software architecture for iiot that integrates the concepts of fog/edge computing and fieldbuses specific to the industrial environment. the proposed architecture is organized in layers and it exploits the performances of the data processing at the edge of the network to reduce the bandwidth used for the cloud connection but also to obtain a shorter response time when dealing with time-critical operations. fog/edge computing can integrate features such as low latency, predictability, hard real-time that are very important for monitoring and controlling time-critical operations specific to the industrial environment. furthermore, the architecture contains a virtual environment used for interaction and data exchange between the virtual and/or real objects/things. unlike the iiot architectures presented in the specialized literature, the proposed iiot architecture aims to integrate many fieldbuses into the system. in addition, by using a device description language, they can be added to the system through the plug and play method. the proposal and description of complete iiot software represents the main contribution of this paper. the conceptual model for the iiot system contains some operational and implementation details that are useful in developing an iiot solution based on the proposed architecture. the strengths of the proposed architecture are: • versatility-it can be adapted to the requirements and configuration of different industrial environments; • real-time capabilities-using system on chip (soc) systems with specialized processors for the design and development of the fog nodes; • the integration of several fieldbuses at the same time; • interoperability between different fieldbuses by building a unified address space; • interoperability between iiot systems by using a standardized middleware system. this paper is structured as follows: section 2 presents some iiot architectures presented in the specialized literature and some companies, and the motivation of the proposed iiot architecture. section 3 describes the proposed iiot architecture with some discussions related the implementation. section 4 presents some discussions related to the security issues addressed by the proposed iiot architecture. section 5 presents a comparison between proposed architecture and the architectures analyzed in section 2. the conclusions are drawn in section 6. an iiot reference architecture is the abstractization of an iiot architecture that allows the identification of general components and implementation challenges. in the specialized literature, more reference architectures are proposed for iiot. in june 2019, the industrial internet consortium (iic) released version 1.9 of the reference architecture for the iiot [24] . it is focused on different viewpoints (business, usage, functional, and implementation viewpoints). the implementation viewpoint presents the system components and the technologies that can be used to implement the functionalities described in the functional viewpoint. furthermore, the implementation viewpoint contains a technical description of the architecture components, including interfaces, protocols, behaviors, and other properties [24] , but it does not contain information related to the integration of the fieldbuses and devices from the industrial environment. another important iiot reference architecture is the reference architectural model industry 4.0 (rami 4.0) [25, 26] . this is based on a 3-d model where the axes are live cycle, value stream, and hierarchy levels, and it is service-oriented architecture. the hierarchy level of the architecture is organized in the following levels: product, field devices, control devices, station, work centers, enterprise, and connected world. the value stream level of the architecture is related to the different component functionalities, it includes a communication layer and it is organized the following layers with a high level of abstraction: asset, integration, communication, information, functional, and business. other iot reference architectures are organized on layers, such that defined by the international telecommunication union (itu) that consists of four layers: devices, network, service support and application support, and application [27] . the device layer includes the device capabilities for interaction for the communication network and gateway capabilities for supporting multiple communication networks. the network layer includes networking and transport capabilities, service support, and the application support layer includes the generic and specific support for the application layer. in [28] , the authors proposed a case study on the growth of big data in iiot systems, a classification of key concepts, and a presentation of key frameworks and continued with the presentation of future technologies, opportunities, and challenges. these researches concluded that augmented reality, iot devices, cyber-physical systems and industry 4.0 big data and analytics (bda) platforms are at an early stage in iiot systems and that solutions should be found in developing new standards that allow interoperability between various platforms but also processing capability of the end-to-end applications for concentric computing systems. a solution to improve the blockchain scalability of iiot systems by guaranteeing system security, latency but also decentralization, that was proposed in the article [29] have led to performance optimization with a deep reinforcement learning technique (drl). the authors obtained results that demonstrated they can obtain a better efficiency compared to the basic parameters of the system. in another research paper [19] , the authors concluded based on conducted researches that the success of iiot can be hindered for different reasons such as challenging collaboration between various heterogeneous iiot systems, efficient data management, large, solid, and flexible data technologies, iiot protocols, operating systems, reliable iiot systems but also the coexistence of wireless technologies. in addition to a survey of existing definitions of iiot in [30] , the authors also present a proposal for a new definition of what the iiot means. the authors also present an analysis of a framework for iiot devices based on security-related issues surrounding iiot but as well as an analysis of the relationships between cyber-physical systems and industry 4.0. a secure fog-based iiot architecture by suitably plugging a number of security features that reduce the trust and burden on the cloud and resource-constrained devices, but also that reduce latency in decision making that improves the performance, is presented in another research paper from the specialized literature [31] . also, the authors demonstrated that by offloading several computationally intensive tasks to the fog nodes, the battery life of the resource-constrained of end devices is greatly saved. the validation of the architecture was demonstrated through theoretical analyses, practical experiments, but also through simulation and testbed implementation. in [32] , an iiot application for a sewage treatment plant is proposed. this iiot solution uses control station systems based on the stmicroelectronics stm32 microcontrollers to update the automation system and to activate the iiot concept. basically, the stm32-based control stations act as gateways between field devices connected to fieldbuses and their connection within the local network and further to the internet for remote monitoring and cloud connections. the monitoring operations can be performed remotely from pcs or mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets. the authors concluded that this solution provide the real-time performances and reliability required for monitoring and controlling the sewage treatment plant. in [33] , the authors define an architecture organized on four layers: sensing layer, networking layer, service layer, and interface layer. in [34] an architecture is proposed that contains the physical layer, transport layer middleware layer, and application. an architecture with three layers (perception/sensing layer, network layer, and service/application layer) is proposed in [35, 36] . all these reference architectures have a high level of abstraction and do not provide details related to the development of the iiot solutions based on these reference architectures. a trust framework for automated guided vehicles (agvs) in smart factories is presented in [37] . the authors defined a trust measure for avg, designed the trust framework, and presented a set of experiments based on this framework, but they did not provide details related to the communication with the avgs and how the data are acquired from the avgs and integrated into the proposed framework. a software architecture for iiot is presented in [38] and updated in [39] . the proposed architecture is organized on 4 levels: things, data provider, middleware, and applications. the interaction between things is performed at the application level, the upper level in the architecture. in this paper, we propose an evolution of the architecture presented in [38, 39] by including new technologies such as fog/edge computing concepts. furthermore, now things interact with each other at a lower layer, and at the application/service layer the services necessary for the development of applications are provided, such as monitoring and control specific to the industrial environment or applications for manufacturing tracing and monitoring. in addition, the proposed architecture provides implementation details, not being an abstract architecture as are most of reference architectures from the specialized literature. regarding soc systems that can be used for iot and iiot, in [40] the authors present a comparison between several single-board computers that can be used for iiot solutions, namely raspberry pi 3, beaglebone black, banana pi, and odroid-c1. of these, the most popular system is the raspberry pi, but in terms of the peripherals provided, the beaglebone black is the best. in [41] , the authors propose a soc architecture for the industrial internet of things. the soc architecture is implemented on an field programmable gate array (fpga) system with two arm processors that execute the linux operating system. the fpga gates are used to implement real-time operations specific to the industrial environment. a detailed survey related to the security in iiot is presented in [42] , where the authors performed a systematic review of the literature and identified the security requirements for iiot. these security requirements are related to the confidentiality, integrity, availability (cia) triad, authentication, access control, maintainability, resilience, data security and data sharing, security monitoring, and network security. additionally, the authors included a description of how fog computing can address these requirements and identify some research opportunity for the use of the fog computing for iiot security, namely fog-enabled authentication, fog-enabled access control, fog-enabled maintainability, fog-enabled resilience, and fog-enabled data security and data sharing. a survey for the security of the iiot protocols is presented in [43] . they focused on the main 33 protocols and standards used in iiot (from middleware systems to fieldbuses) and identify the security vulnerability with the common vulnerability scoring system (cvss). they proposed a vulnerability analysis framework (vaf) that can be used to analyze 1363 vulnerabilities for iiot systems. data security in edge-based iiot is investigated in [44] . authors identify four main challenges reliable data storage, convenient data usage, efficient data search, and secure data deletion, and they proposed a cloud-fog-edge device storage framework for iiot that addresses the challenges identified. in this section, we propose an iiot software architecture that can be used in the development of the practical iiot solutions. before describing the proposed architecture, we will discuss the main challenges in the design and development of the iiot architectures. the main requirements for the development of an iiot architecture are represented by modularity, scalability, and interoperability between the different technologies used in the industrial environment. while iot is human-centered, iiot is machine-oriented [4] and is based on existing technologies and devices for reliability. the iiot systems are a special class of iot systems that have additional requirements related to latency, real-time capabilities, security, reliability, and safety. these requirements result from the specific nature of the industrial environment where time-critical activities can be carried out. perhaps the most important challenge in developing an iiot architecture is data security because most data in the industrial environment are not public. for this reason, there must be a clear policy regarding restricted access to data only from trusted entities. another challenge in developing an iiot system is the large number of industrial networks (fieldbuses) used in the industrial environment, each with its own characteristics related to the latency, real-time capabilities, transmission rate, and line protocol. all these fieldbuses should coexist in an iiot system. furthermore, in the industrial environment, there are many heterogeneous systems (ex. devices, sensors, programmable logic controllers, and human-machine interface) that must collaborate within an iiot system. the heterogeneous nature of the systems results from the data source data, data stream, data storage, and processing requirements. another challenge is the performance related to soft and hard real-time capabilities. usually, in the industrial environment, critical activities are carried out for missions and safety with imposed requirements regarding timing and reliability. the iiot architecture proposed in this article addresses all these challenges. the proposed architecture is organized on layers and includes the edge/fog computing paradigm applied for the iiot and support for the real-time and low latency requirements specific to the industrial field. figure 1 presents the proposed software architecture organized on four layers: sensing/things, data provider, fog computing, and applications/service. in addition, fog computing and application/service layers can be connected to a cloud server to retrieve and save data. each layer includes services for management and security through which the user can configure the functionality and security implementation at the layer-level. in figure 1 the management and security capabilities are presented vertically because they transcend all layers of architecture. sensors 2020, 20, x for peer review 6 of 18 development of an iiot architecture are represented by modularity, scalability, and interoperability between the different technologies used in the industrial environment. while iot is human-centered, iiot is machine-oriented [4] and is based on existing technologies and devices for reliability. the iiot systems are a special class of iot systems that have additional requirements related to latency, real-time capabilities, security, reliability, and safety. these requirements result from the specific nature of the industrial environment where time-critical activities can be carried out. perhaps the most important challenge in developing an iiot architecture is data security because most data in the industrial environment are not public. for this reason, there must be a clear policy regarding restricted access to data only from trusted entities. another challenge in developing an iiot system is the large number of industrial networks (fieldbuses) used in the industrial environment, each with its own characteristics related to the latency, real-time capabilities, transmission rate, and line protocol. all these fieldbuses should coexist in an iiot system. furthermore, in the industrial environment, there are many heterogeneous systems (ex. devices, sensors, programmable logic controllers, and human-machine interface) that must collaborate within an iiot system. the heterogeneous nature of the systems results from the data source data, data stream, data storage, and processing requirements. another challenge is the performance related to soft and hard real-time capabilities. usually, in the industrial environment, critical activities are carried out for missions and safety with imposed requirements regarding timing and reliability. the iiot architecture proposed in this article addresses all these challenges. the proposed architecture is organized on layers and includes the edge/fog computing paradigm applied for the iiot and support for the real-time and low latency requirements specific to the industrial field. figure 1 presents the proposed software architecture organized on four layers: sensing/things, data provider, fog computing, and applications/service. in addition, fog computing and application/service layers can be connected to a cloud server to retrieve and save data. each layer includes services for management and security through which the user can configure the functionality and security implementation at the layer-level. in figure 1 the management and security capabilities are presented vertically because they transcend all layers of architecture. an important aspect of the proposed architecture is the integration of fog/edge computing concepts. thus, in the proposed architecture there are fog/edge/gateway nodes that integrate the fog/edge and data provider layers presented in figure 1 . there may be more such nodes in the iiot architecture implementation. in this context of fog/edge/gateway nodes, another perspective of the proposed architecture is presented in figure 2 (without application/service layer). in the iiot architecture, there can be several nodes, each node connects to one or more fieldbuses, and these nodes implement the fog and data provider layers for these fieldbuses. these layers are software packages implemented for a specific device based on a microprocessor or a soc (system on chip) that runs on a high-level operating system such as windows, linux, or android. these devices have peripherals such as usb (universal serial bus), can (controller area network) bus, uart (universal asynchronous receiver-transmitter), spi (serial peripheral interface), and i2c (inter-integrated circuit) that allows the interfacing with fieldbuses used in the industrial environment. for example, through usb we can connect to canopen fieldbus using a usb-can interface, the can bus can be used to connect to canopen fieldbus, the uart can be used to connect to profibus or modbus fieldbus via a uart-rs485 interface, and spi/i2c can be used to connect to canopen fieldbus via an spi-can or i2c-can interface. proposed architecture is presented in figure 2 (without application/service layer). in the iiot architecture, there can be several nodes, each node connects to one or more fieldbuses, and these nodes implement the fog and data provider layers for these fieldbuses. these layers are software packages implemented for a specific device based on a microprocessor or a soc (system on chip) that runs on a high-level operating system such as windows, linux, or android. these devices have peripherals such as usb (universal serial bus), can (controller area network) bus, uart (universal asynchronous receiver-transmitter), spi (serial peripheral interface), and i2c (inter-integrated circuit) that allows the interfacing with fieldbuses used in the industrial environment. for example, through usb we can connect to canopen fieldbus using a usb-can interface, the can bus can be used to connect to canopen fieldbus, the uart can be used to connect to profibus or modbus fieldbus via a uart-rs485 interface, and spi/i2c can be used to connect to canopen fieldbus via an spi-can or i2c-can interface. these fog/edge/gateway nodes can be implemented on various computing systems such as beaglebone ai, raspberry pi 4, industrial pcs or other types of computing system that allow connection to industrial networks and sufficient computing power for data processing. for the internet connection, 5g modules can also be used to have a high bandwidth regardless of the physical location of the node. the 5g is a technology that is beginning to be adopted by most gsm (global system for mobile communications) service providers. the 5g modules are the hardware support for the internet connection and, for this reason, we will not insist on this aspect. from the software point of view, how the connection to the internet is made is transparent. the following sections will be described in detail for each layer of the four layers in which the proposed architecture is organized. these fog/edge/gateway nodes can be implemented on various computing systems such as beaglebone ai, raspberry pi 4, industrial pcs or other types of computing system that allow connection to industrial networks and sufficient computing power for data processing. for the internet connection, 5g modules can also be used to have a high bandwidth regardless of the physical location of the node. the 5g is a technology that is beginning to be adopted by most gsm (global system for mobile communications) service providers. the 5g modules are the hardware support for the internet connection and, for this reason, we will not insist on this aspect. from the software point of view, how the connection to the internet is made is transparent. the following sections will be described in detail for each layer of the four layers in which the proposed architecture is organized. at this level, there are physical devices, sensors, actuators, and plcs (programmable logic controllers) specific to the industrial environment. these devices are connected to a specific fieldbus and can send and/or receive data from this fieldbus. examples of such fieldbuses are canopen, modbus, profibus, profinet, ethercat, and wirelesshart. at the upper layer, there must be different adapters/interfaces for communication with devices connected to fieldbuses. for example, usb-can interfaces or soc-based systems with a can port can be used for a canopen fieldbus. also, at the upper layer, there must be extensions through which the devices connected to the network can be configured, depending on the characteristics of each fieldbus. due to the nature of the industrial environment, the complexity, and the requirements for the execution of time-critical activities, some configuration operations of the field devices must be performed manually. once this operation is performed, the fieldbus can operate without major configuration changes. the purpose of this architecture is not to go into detail, it is considered that the networks are configured and at the top layer drivers specific to each fieldbus and the soc on which the fog/edge/gateway node is implemented can be designed and developed. this layer is defined in the proposed iiot architecture only from the hardware point of view, from the software point of view, at the upper level there must be modules through which the fieldbuses and devices connected to these fieldbuses can be configured. the purpose of this layer is to acquire data from devices connected to fieldbuses and store it in a buffer memory in order to be transmitted to the next layer or to send data from the memory buffer to the fieldbuses when data is received from the upper layer. it must be specified that the data flow is bidirectional, in the sense that the values from different sensors/devices can be acquired from the fieldbuses or commands that can be sent to the actuators connected on the fieldbuses. as we specified previously, this layer together with the fog/edge layer is designed and developed to be executed on fog/edge nodes. these nodes can be represented by pcs or soc-based computing systems that have features and can help to achieve real-time and reliable communication with fieldbuses. a system with sufficient computing power to process the data and peripherals needed to connect to the fieldbus that is monitored by the fog node must be chosen. the software architecture of a fog/edge/gateway node is presented in figure 3 . it can be observed from figure 3 that the data provider level connects directly to the fieldbuses, and a fog/edge node can connect to one or more fieldbuses depending on the iiot application and connection capabilities of the fog/edge node. due to the diversity of fieldbuses that can be used in the industrial environment, this layer contains a driver for each type of fieldbus that can be integrated into the proposed iiot architecture. these drivers implement the fieldbus protocol stacks for which it is designed and developed, and the connection method/way for fieldbuses must be considered, using an interface or directly throughout a peripheral (e.g., for a canopen fieldbus we can use a can port, a can-ethernet interface, or a can-usb interface, depending on the connectivity provided by the soc system used). from figure 3 , we can see that the data provider layer includes the drivers for the fieldbuses. a node can instantiate one or more drivers depending on the capabilities of the fog system and the configuration of the industrial environment that is included in the virtual industrial environment internet of things. we can design and develop drivers for mature networks that exist in the industrial environment for a long time or on new communication systems such as narrowband iot or lte cat-m based on 5g technology. in order to meet the real-time requirements specific to the industrial environment, the fog nodes can be designed and developed on soc systems with specialized coprocessors for the communication implementation with fieldbuses. for example, we can use soc systems that have one or more cores based on the arm cortex ax architecture for the execution of the complex operations and specialized processors (e.g., based on arm cortex mx architectures or other optimized architecture as proposed in [45] ) for the communication in real-time with the fieldbuses. thus, the tasks with specific real-time requirements for time-critical operations specific to the industrial environment are executed on the specialized coprocessor where these requirements can be fulfilled and guaranteed. the basic idea is to use multiprocessor soc systems that have processors on which linux embedded can be executed for the execution of non-critical operations in the best-effort (soft real-time) manner and specialized coprocessors on which a real-time operating system [46] can be executed for the implementation of the protocol stack and the execution of critical time operations. with this solution, low and predictable latencies can be achieved at the occurrence of events or at the execution of the critical operations by decoupling the software part with real-time requirements from the software part that does not have strict real-time requirements. in the case of these soc systems, the drivers have a part that runs on specialized coprocessors (real-time cores) and a part that runs on the main processors (application cores). the software part from the specialized coprocessors implements the protocol stack, and the software part from the main processors works as a wrapper that saves the unit data in a buffer memory from where it will be taken and processed by other software modules. in terms of implementation, this solution involves the development of software for asymmetric multi-processing, and great care must be taken at the implementation of the communication between processors in order not to introduce performance bottlenecks. fog nodes can also be developed on computing systems without specialized co-processors, but in this case, we can obtain at most soft real-time capabilities due to the limitations of windows and linux operating systems [47] (including real-time extensions such as rtai (real-time application interface) or preempt_rt). the specialized co-processors provide support for the development of small software modules with strict hard real-time capabilities and predictable latencies. each fieldbus will have an associated address space that defines the things connected to the fieldbus. one of the main goals of the drivers is to build the address space in a unitary way, hiding the specific details of each fieldbus and connected devices, such as the addressing mode or the in order to meet the real-time requirements specific to the industrial environment, the fog nodes can be designed and developed on soc systems with specialized coprocessors for the communication implementation with fieldbuses. for example, we can use soc systems that have one or more cores based on the arm cortex ax architecture for the execution of the complex operations and specialized processors (e.g., based on arm cortex mx architectures or other optimized architecture as proposed in [45] ) for the communication in real-time with the fieldbuses. thus, the tasks with specific real-time requirements for time-critical operations specific to the industrial environment are executed on the specialized coprocessor where these requirements can be fulfilled and guaranteed. the basic idea is to use multiprocessor soc systems that have processors on which linux embedded can be executed for the execution of non-critical operations in the best-effort (soft real-time) manner and specialized coprocessors on which a real-time operating system [46] can be executed for the implementation of the protocol stack and the execution of critical time operations. with this solution, low and predictable latencies can be achieved at the occurrence of events or at the execution of the critical operations by decoupling the software part with real-time requirements from the software part that does not have strict real-time requirements. in the case of these soc systems, the drivers have a part that runs on specialized coprocessors (real-time cores) and a part that runs on the main processors (application cores). the software part from the specialized coprocessors implements the protocol stack, and the software part from the main processors works as a wrapper that saves the unit data in a buffer memory from where it will be taken and processed by other software modules. in terms of implementation, this solution involves the development of software for asymmetric multi-processing, and great care must be taken at the implementation of the communication between processors in order not to introduce performance bottlenecks. fog nodes can also be developed on computing systems without specialized co-processors, but in this case, we can obtain at most soft real-time capabilities due to the limitations of windows and linux operating systems [47] (including real-time extensions such as rtai (real-time application interface) or preempt_rt). the specialized co-processors provide support for the development of small software modules with strict hard real-time capabilities and predictable latencies. each fieldbus will have an associated address space that defines the things connected to the fieldbus. one of the main goals of the drivers is to build the address space in a unitary way, hiding the specific details of each fieldbus and connected devices, such as the addressing mode or the message format. thus, it is possible to obtain the aggregation and processing of the data acquired from different fieldbuses to which the fog node is connected through a unique software interface, ensuring interoperability between different fieldbuses. the structure of this address space is organized in a tree and it is stored in extensible markup language (xml) files that are loaded when the software module that implements the data provider layer is instantiated. it is considered that a fieldbus can have several devices/sensors/actuators connected, and each device can have several things such as a temperature, a pressure, a level, and so on. each thing is characterized by several attributes such as data type, quality, timestamp, and access type. the data type can be numeric, string, and logic, and the quality can be good or bad. the timestamp represents the time and date of the last update of the things, and the access type can be read-only, write-only, and read-write. a sensor will have the read-only access type and an actuator can have write-only or write-read access type. an example of a space address for a device is presented in figure 4 . thus, we have a device that has n analog inputs and n digital outputs. analog inputs can be connected to sensors such as thermocouples, a resistance thermometer, pressure transducers, etc. and digital outputs that can be connected to execution elements via relays. the address space for this device built in the fog node contains n things for the n analog inputs and n things for the n digital outputs, as illustrated in figure 4 . sensors 2020, 20, x for peer review 10 of 18 message format. thus, it is possible to obtain the aggregation and processing of the data acquired from different fieldbuses to which the fog node is connected through a unique software interface, ensuring interoperability between different fieldbuses. the structure of this address space is organized in a tree and it is stored in extensible markup language (xml) files that are loaded when the software module that implements the data provider layer is instantiated. it is considered that a fieldbus can have several devices/sensors/actuators connected, and each device can have several things such as a temperature, a pressure, a level, and so on. each thing is characterized by several attributes such as data type, quality, timestamp, and access type. the data type can be numeric, string, and logic, and the quality can be good or bad. the timestamp represents the time and date of the last update of the things, and the access type can be read-only, write-only, and read-write. a sensor will have the read-only access type and an actuator can have write-only or write-read access type. an example of a space address for a device is presented in figure 4 . thus, we have a device that has n analog inputs and n digital outputs. analog inputs can be connected to sensors such as thermocouples, a resistance thermometer, pressure transducers, etc. and digital outputs that can be connected to execution elements via relays. the address space for this device built in the fog node contains n things for the n analog inputs and n things for the n digital outputs, as illustrated in figure 4 . the data acquired from the fieldbuses are saved in a buffer memory, where they will be retrieved and transmitted to the upper layer. the buffer memory is allocated according to the definition found in the xml configuration files associated with each fieldbus. the user has the possibility to configure the communication parameters on the network as well as the introduction or elimination of new devices. this address space is used by the upper layer to read/transmit data to the thing. a thing can be accessed through a path in the form of "network name. device name. thing name". each device will have associated an xml file that defines all the things and attributes of the things it makes available. these files contain generic names for things that can be replaced with aliases in the network setup process. each fieldbus will have an associated xml file in which network-specific configurations (such as communication speed) and the list of devices connected to the fieldbus along with the associated xml files are stored. a fog/edge node has an associated xml file in which the list of fieldbuses to which it connects with the associated xml files are stored. these files are automatically updated during the configuration of fieldbuses to which the fog node connects and loaded when the software module that implements the functionalities of the fog node is executed. the data acquired from the fieldbuses are saved in a buffer memory, where they will be retrieved and transmitted to the upper layer. the buffer memory is allocated according to the definition found in the xml configuration files associated with each fieldbus. the user has the possibility to configure the communication parameters on the network as well as the introduction or elimination of new devices. this address space is used by the upper layer to read/transmit data to the thing. a thing can be accessed through a path in the form of "network name. device name. thing name". each device will have associated an xml file that defines all the things and attributes of the things it makes available. these files contain generic names for things that can be replaced with aliases in the network setup process. each fieldbus will have an associated xml file in which network-specific configurations (such as communication speed) and the list of devices connected to the fieldbus along with the associated xml files are stored. a fog/edge node has an associated xml file in which the list of fieldbuses to which it connects with the associated xml files are stored. these files are automatically updated during the configuration of fieldbuses to which the fog node connects and loaded when the software module that implements the functionalities of the fog node is executed. an important part of the xml file associated with a device is the part that describes how the value of a thing is read or written. this is translated into messages that can be transmitted and read on the fieldbuses, depending on the characteristics of each network. this means that the xml file must also be interpreted by the driver to take over the commands/messages specific to each thing. depending on the type of network, an acquisition cycle can be defined by which data in the buffer are updated periodically and prioritized depending on the criticality of the monitored data and the user configuration. an example of such an acquisition cycle is presented in [48] . at this layer, the local processing of the data acquired from the industrial fieldbuses is performed and it is the place where things interact with each other. practically at this level, the operations specific to the edge and fog computing concepts are performed. thus, in order to interact between the things, it is proposed to use the publisher-subscriber paradigm, in the sense that a thing publishes its value periodically or when an event occurs, and other things subscribe to this value. there are two types of thing: physical things that are associated with things defined at the data provider layer and virtual things that can be defined at this level and represent the result of processing data from physical and/or virtual things. the virtual things subscribe to one or more values published by the other things, perform certain processing on the read values (mathematical operations, mathematical functions, aggregation functions, etc.) and the obtained result is published as a new value. from the functional point of view, no distinction is made between virtual things and physical things. things can connect to one or more things in a virtual communication environment that is based on the publish-subscribe paradigm and that performs some processing on data and can publish its value. a graphical representation of the virtual publishing-subscriber environment is shown in figure 5 . some things only publish data, for example, things associated with a sensor such as temperature sensor, pressure sensor, and things that subscribe to one or more values but do not publish any values, such as things that are associated with actuators from the industrial environment. internally, things perform a wide range of data processing tasks such as mathematical operations, mediation, aggregation, or other mathematical functions. there may be cloud things that subscribe to certain data and save it to a remote or local cloud server, or things that connect to data and save it to a remote or local database. these types of thing perform certain cloud services on the fog node, such as storage services. the interaction between things can be undertaken at the level of a fog/edge node, but we also want the interaction between things from different fog/edge nodes. in order to achieve requirements related to the interaction between things, a middleware system that provides support for publish-subscribe communication can be used. at the moment, there are several middleware systems that operate on the publisher-subscriber paradigm, such as the advanced message-queuing protocol (amqp) [49] , message-queuing telemetry transport (mqtt) [50] , and data distribution service (dds) for real-time systems [51] . we focused on middleware systems that are based on the publish-subscribe paradigm because the iiot system will be much more versatile. there are other important middleware systems that are widely used in the development of iot systems [52] such as xmpp (extensible messaging and presence protocol) or coap (constrained application protocol) but these middleware systems have not been considered because they are not based on the publish-subscribe paradigm. from the middleware systems that are based on the publish-subscribe paradigm, we suggest the use of dds for real-time systems is chosen because it was designed specifically for real-time systems. in order to argue for the selection of the dds protocol, the study by [52] can be analyzed, where the http (s), coap, mqtt, amqp, xmpp, and dds are identified as the main middleware systems based on messages that can be used in the development of the iot systems. from these middleware systems, mqtt and amqp use a broker that can be a bottleneck point. the dds is the only one that uses a bus-like architecture (mqtt uses tree architecture and amqt uses star architecture), has 23 quality of service (qos) levels (mqtt and amqp uses 3 qos levels), is data-centric, and implements a security mechanism like tls, dtls, and dds security. also, the data distribution is very versatile with the possibility to achieve 1 to 1, 1 to n, and n to 1 [52] . by using a standard middleware system, interoperability can be ensured between the iiot systems and with other systems could take data from the iiot system. shown in figure 5 . some things only publish data, for example, things associated with a sensor such as temperature sensor, pressure sensor, and things that subscribe to one or more values but do not publish any values, such as things that are associated with actuators from the industrial environment. internally, things perform a wide range of data processing tasks such as mathematical operations, mediation, aggregation, or other mathematical functions. there may be cloud things that subscribe to certain data and save it to a remote or local cloud server, or things that connect to data and save it to a remote or local database. these types of thing perform certain cloud services on the fog node, such as storage services. thus, a dds domain is defined for the architecture, which is divided into several dds partitions, a dds partition corresponding to a fog/edge node. dds defines a unit of information as a topic. thus, for each thing defined at the data provider level, a topic will be associated, which will have the unique name of the access path defined at the previous level. in addition to these things, virtual things are also defined, things that can subscribe to different dds topics, and different processing is performed on the received data. all these things are created by the user in the configuration process based on predefined things that are instantiated and that subscribe to one or more topics. perhaps the most important predefined virtual thing is the expression thing in which certain mathematical operations and functions can be applied to the data with which it is subscribed. thus, the user can create virtual things according to his needs and in accordance with the application of the industrial environment that is integrated into the iiot architecture. due to the solution adopted for the interaction between things, the architecture is very versatile, being able to be used in a wide range of industrial applications. in the case of using the dds middleware system, the publishing-subscription environment from figure 5 can be represented as in figure 6 . the connections between things are not made only locally, but in the dds domain, which is defined at the level of the iiot system, things from the dds domain can be from the same node or from remote fog/edge nodes in a local network or on the internet. as can be seen from figure 6 , in the case of dds middleware, each topic is associated with different qos policies. these policies can be related to data availability, data delivery, data timeliness, and resources. for data availability, we can control how data is available within a domain through the durability, lifespan, and history policies. for data delivery, we can control how data is delivered and exclusive rights for data through the presentation, reliability, partition, destination_order, and ownership policies. for data timeliness, we can control the timeliness for the data through the deadline, latency_budget, and transport_priority policies. through the resources policies, we can control the computing and network resources. all of these policies are described in the dds specifications and they are included in the implementations of these specifications [51] [52] [53] . as can be seen from figure 6 , in the case of dds middleware, each topic is associated with different qos policies. these policies can be related to data availability, data delivery, data timeliness, and resources. for data availability, we can control how data is available within a domain through the durability, lifespan, and history policies. for data delivery, we can control how data is delivered and exclusive rights for data through the presentation, reliability, partition, destination_order, and ownership policies. for data timeliness, we can control the timeliness for the data through the deadline, latency_budget, and transport_priority policies. through the resources policies, we can control the computing and network resources. all of these policies are described in the dds specifications and they are included in the implementations of these specifications [51] [52] [53] . the application/services layer is the place where industry-specific applications can be developed, such as those for remote monitoring and control. we can develop a supervisory control and data acquisition (scada) type application by subscribing and publishing in the dds domain where the things interact with each other. at this layer, it can be designed and developed software solutions/applications that can monitor things in the industrial environment and send commands to these things. also, based on the data saved on the fog nodes or in the cloud, different reports and graphical representations can be made regarding the evolution of the data over time and of the industrial process. at this layer and depending on the capabilities of the fog nodes, on each fog node a web server can be developed that allows the visualization of the values published by the fog node in the dds domain. the web server can also have an extension that provides the facility to configure the fog/edge node remotely, especially since fog/edge nodes can operate without the graphical interface. at this layer, an hmi application can be designed and developed like that presented in [39] and which can be used to graphically visualization of data acquired from the industrial environment and send commands in the industrial environment through the graphical interface. the application/services layer is the place where industry-specific applications can be developed, such as those for remote monitoring and control. we can develop a supervisory control and data acquisition (scada) type application by subscribing and publishing in the dds domain where the things interact with each other. at this layer, it can be designed and developed software solutions/applications that can monitor things in the industrial environment and send commands to these things. also, based on the data saved on the fog nodes or in the cloud, different reports and graphical representations can be made regarding the evolution of the data over time and of the industrial process. at this layer and depending on the capabilities of the fog nodes, on each fog node a web server can be developed that allows the visualization of the values published by the fog node in the dds domain. the web server can also have an extension that provides the facility to configure the fog/edge node remotely, especially since fog/edge nodes can operate without the graphical interface. at this layer, an hmi application can be designed and developed like that presented in [39] and which can be used to graphically visualization of data acquired from the industrial environment and send commands in the industrial environment through the graphical interface. security is an important issue in any application distributed over the internet. in the case of iiot, it is even more important because non-public data is transmitted over the internet, and access to this data must be granted on the basis of clear security policies. at the level of things/sensing, security is ensured by the capabilities of each fieldbus. usually, in these fieldbuses, the security mechanisms are not implemented because not everyone has physical access to them. from a security point of view, the risks at this level are small, especially if physical access to them is restricted. in addition, devices connected to networks can have different security mechanisms in place. from the point of view of the current iiot architecture, the security at this level depends on the configuration made at the level of each fieldbus and filed device used, and no new security mechanisms are implemented because this level does not involve the development of software modules. at higher layers, the security mechanisms must be implemented at the fog node level. remote access to fog nodes must be restricted, thus avoiding any security holes that may occur. the operating system must also be kept up to date with the latest security updates. configuration xml files can be encrypted. this does not degrade the performance because they are decrypted when starting the software modules to implement the data provider and fog/edge computing layers, and they are saved in encrypted mode following the configuration operations performed by the user. the biggest security issue can be when publishing data in the publisher-subscriber environment provided by the dds domain defined for the current iiot architecture because those messages can be intercepted when they are transmitted over the internet. in 2018, the latest security specifications for the dds protocol were published. these specifications are also implemented in the opendds implementation, an open-source implementation that can be used for the design and development of fog/edge nodes. the specifications provide the plugins for authentication, access control, logging, data tagging, cryptography, and certificates [54] . through these facilities, the data are transmitted encrypted over the internet ensuring a high degree of security regarding confidentiality, integrity, and availability. table 1 presents a comparison between the proposed architecture and those described in the related work section. a more detailed quantitative or qualitative analysis between the proposed iiot architecture and the existing ones requires more information than those presented in the literature. moreover, we propose a conceptual model and the experimental results will be implemented and presented in future research articles. for example, we can use beaglebone black for implementation. this is based on the sitara™ am335x soc with 2 arm cortex a8 processors and two programmable real-time unit subsystem and industrial communication subsystems (pru-icss). the arm cortex a8 processors use a linux-based operating system. one pru-icss can be used to design and implement a driver for the modbus rtu (remote terminal unit) fieldbus and the other pru-icss can be used to design and implement a driver for the canopen fieldbus. the data provider, fog computing, and applications/service layers can be designed and implemented to be executed on the arm cortex a8 processors under linux. by using many of beaglebone black systems, we can build a complex iiot system that can be geographically distributed. the proposed iiot software architecture the use of the soc-based computing platform with specialized co-processors in order for fog/edge nodes. four layers: sensing/things, data provider, fog/edge, applications/services fog/edge nodes yes. it is proposed an unified address space and a driver for each field bus integrated this paper proposed a conceptual model software architecture for the iiot. the proposed architecture is a conceptual model with a low level of abstraction, being oriented towards the design and development of real-time applications for the iiot. among the strengths of the proposed architecture, we can mention: the integration in the system of many fieldbuses used in the industrial environment, addressing the specific requirements of the industrial environment such as real-time and low-latency capabilities, and the integration in the architecture of the concepts of fog and edge computing. also, the use of the soc-based computing platform with specialized co-processors is proposed in order to be able to execute in real time certain time-critical operations specific to the industrial environment. the specialized co-processors provide support for the development of small software modules with strict hard real-time capabilities and predictable latencies while the main processors provide support for the development of software modules with soft real-time capabilities. we can conclude that the conceptual model is feasible for a combination of hard and soft real-time systems with hard real-time constraints provided by the specialized co-processors. the fog/edge computing can integrate features such as low latency, predictability, and hard real time that are very important for monitoring and controlling time-critical operations specific to the industrial environment. furthermore, the architecture contains a virtual environment used for the interaction and data exchange between the virtual and/or real objects/things located on the same fog / edge node or on different fog/edge nodes. as future work, we intend to implement the proposed architecture on beaglebone black and beaglebone ai systems. privacy enhancing technologies in the internet of things: perspectives and challenges internet of things 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industrial internet of things (iiot) deploying fog computing in industrial internet of things and industry 4.0 literature review of industry 4.0 and related technologies industrial internet of things: recent advances, enabling technologies and open challenges industrial-iot-iiot-market-worth-263-4-billion-by-2027-exclusive-report-covering-pre-and-post-covid-19-market-analysis-and-forecasts-by-meticulous-research.html the industrial information technology handbook industrial communication systems and their future challenges: next-generation ethernet, iiot, and 5g narrowband internet of things: a comprehensive study analysis of the cyber-security of industry 4.0 technologies based on rami 4.0 and identification of requirements an architecture based on rami 4.0 to discover equipment to process operations required by products internet protocol aspects and next-generation networks, next generation networks-frameworks and functional architecture models, overview of the internet of things the 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information systems analysis of single-board computers for iot and iiot solutions in embedded control systems smart sensor: soc architecture for the industrial internet of things a systematic survey of industrial internet of things security: requirements and fog computing opportunities a survey of iiot protocols toward data security in edge intelligent iiot improving interrupt handling in the nmpra timing comparison of the real-time operating systems for small microcontrollers hard real-time computing systems a flexible acquisition cycle for incompletely defined fieldbus protocols industrial shop-floor integration based on amqp protocol in an iot environment vulnerabilities and limitations of mqtt protocol used between iot devices dds-based protocol-compatible communication platform for mining power system the infrastructure used for this work was partially supported by the project "integrated center for research, development and innovation in advanced materials, nanotechnologies, and distributed systems for fabrication and control", contract no. 671/09.04.2015, sectoral operational program for increase of the economic competitiveness co-funded from the european regional development fund. the authors declare no conflict of interest. the funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results. key: cord-005384-204jch3h authors: gao, jun; zeng, lingjie; cao, changsheng; ye, wei; zhang, xu title: multi-objective optimization for sensor placement against suddenly released contaminant in air duct system date: 2017-05-16 journal: build simul doi: 10.1007/s12273-017-0374-z sha: doc_id: 5384 cord_uid: 204jch3h when a chemical or biological agent is suddenly released into a ventilation system, its dispersion needs to be promptly and accurately detected. in this work, an optimization method for sensors layout in air ductwork was presented. three optimal objectives were defined, i.e. the minimum detection time, minimum contaminant exposure, and minimum probability of undetected pollution events. genetic algorithm (ga) method was used to obtain the non-dominated solutions of multiobjectives optimization problem and the global optimal solution was selected among all of the non-dominated solutions by ordering solutions method. since the biochemical attack occurred in a ventilation system was a random process, two releasing scenarios were proposed, i.e. the uniform and the air volume-based probability distribution. it was found that such a probability distribution affected the results of optimal sensors layout and also resulted in different detect time and different probability of undetected events. it was discussed how the objective functions are being compatible and competitive with each other, and how sensor quantity affect the optimal results and computational load. the impact of changes on other parameters was given, i.e. the deposition coefficient, the air volume distribution and the manual releasing. this work presents an angle of air ductwork design for indoor environment protection and expects to help in realizing the optimized sensor system design for sudden contaminant releasing within ventilation systems. buildings are particularly vulnerable to chemical and biological warfare (cbw) agent contamination since ventilation system and the central air-conditioning serves as a natural carrier for spreading the released contaminant from an artificial source in the ductwork or indoor environment. such kind of contaminant can spread out to the entire indoor environment within a short period of time (xue and zhai 2017; das et al. 2014; chen et al. 2014; zhang et al. 2013) . particular examples of cbw agent contamination include a revelation that terrorists planned to put cyanide into airconditioning system of public buildings across the united states in 2011 (pearson 2011) and an investigation that the sars virus spread through ventilation system and resulted more people in disease in 2003 (kowalski et al. 2003) . such intentional events have highlighted the potential exposure of indoor occupants to hazardous chemical and biological substances. bank (2008, 2010) indicated that the most potentially dangerous scenario for a bioterrorism attack on a building involved introducing an aerosolized agent into a building's ventilation system. as in the case of the cbw agents, rapid detection could help isolate the spread of the contaminants before a large number of people were exposed through the ventilation operation (bastani et al. 2012) . therefore, early detection and warning of cbw agents released in air ductwork play important roles in protecting the occupants and minimizing the adverse consequences when facing such sudden events. a previous study (zhou et al. 2015) has considered sensor design for monitoring contaminant dispersion in indoor environments, but it has ignored the agent transportation in ventilation system. glover (2002) presented an idea that the most efficient points to locate such detection sensors would be the fresh air intake build simul (2018 ) 11: 139-153 https://doi.org/10.1007 list of symbols a ij priority order number obtained by x i and x j comparing for all objectives. c u m agent concentration at upstream main duct of node m (mg/m 3 ) c dm−1 agent concentration at downstream main duct of node m−1 (mg/m 3 ) e i (x) inequality constraint e k total contaminant exposure for releasing at the k-th node (mg) exp (m, t) contaminant exposure for air outlet m at time t (mg) j det the minimum detection time (s) j pro the minimum probability of undetected pollution events j rel the minimum contaminant exposure (mg) n number of potential releasing locations p k probability for contaminant releasing at the k-th node q k air volume at the k-th node (m 3 /h) q m air volume at air outlet m (m 3 /h) r j (x) equality constraint s total number of air outlets t det-k the shortest detection time among all the distributed sensors for contaminant releasing at the k-th node (s) t m−1 time at the node m−1 (s) u m−1 air velocity along the duct between node m−1 and m (m/s) u k u k = 0 if the k-th contamination event is detected by sensors, otherwise, u k = 1 x m−1 distance between source and node m−1 (m) μ near peak time of agent concentration at the nearest sensor node (s) σ near population variance at the nearest sensor node (s) ε x agent eddy diffusivity (m 2 /s)  better performance evaluation of an objective function or the mixing box in the ventilation system, but this idea of sensor placement had no specific optimization for the ventilation system. a research group at uc berkeley (usa) and lawrence berkeley national laboratory (lbnl) did a plenty of seminal studies on incorporating such sensors into a monitoring system designed to protect building occupants (sreedharan et al. 2006 (sreedharan et al. , 2007 sohn and lorenzetti 2011) . sreedharan et al. (2007 sreedharan et al. ( , 2011 ) explored a bayesian interpretation approach to characterize an indoor release using threshold sensor data and applied this approach to assess the effects of various sensor characteristics, such as response time and accuracy. walter et al. (2012) presented a probabilistic approach to design an indoor sensor network for detecting an accidental or intentional chemical or biological release, and demonstrated it by optimizing networks against uncertain release locations, source terms and sensor characteristics. the group's work has greatly developed the monitoring system in buildings to minimize the adverse impact when facing biochemical attacks. however, the calculation model used in their study cannot simulate a sudden pollution occurring in the ventilation system. due to the effect of convection, contaminant spreads much faster in air ductworks than in rooms. it is of significant importance to devise a monitoring system in air ductwork that can detect, locate, and characterize accidental cbw agents. in this work, an optimization method for sensors layout in the air duct system is presented. it can serve as a supplementary study of the lbnl's work and can provide an optimization approach considering both the rooms and the ventilation systems in buildings. to achieve the maximum protection of occupants, sensor design for the air duct system needs to be carefully considered. chen and wen (2008) used both detection time and total occupant exposure as optimization objective functions for the contaminant sensor system design in buildings. genetic algorithm (ga) method was applied to optimize the sensor sensitivity, location and quantity in order to obtain the best sensor layout while reducing the total system cost. in their work, they assumed that the agent source was located at the indoor area and each attack scenario had the same probability of occurrence. however, this assumption is not sufficient when the terrorists choose to attack the ventilation system directly, because sensors located at indoor zones cannot detect the agent timely until it spreads into rooms through air outlets. thus, to design a sensor layout for ventilation system is at least as important as for the indoor environment. in order to resolve the problem for optimal sensor layout in the air ductwork, the airflow pattern and contaminant dispersion need to be known. the airflow pattern in a ductwork is relatively easy to be obtained due to the air volume distribution determined by the ventilation system design and operational commissioning. as for the contaminant dispersion in ductwork after the releasing of a cbw agent, you and wan (2014) derived new models for predicting the concentration dynamics in the straight duct section after a particle resuspension or puff injection. then, an analytical solution method for species transport through the air duct system was derived by gao et al. (2016) and was adopted in this study. sensor layout design is a multi-objective optimization problem (eliades et al. 2013; zhang et al. 2007; ostfeld and salomons 2004; ahmad et al. 2016; chen and wen 2012) . it is discussed widely in water distribution field. watson et al. (2009) showed the ability of robust sensor placement for municipal water distribution networks in reducing the amount and magnitude of 9/11-style attacks. bazargan-lari (2014) presented a new methodology to identify the best layout of water quality monitoring stations for drinking water distribution systems threatened by deliberate contamination events. in this study, the evidential reasoning (er) approach was applied to rank the obtained feasible sensor placements and a simulation model (epanet) was embedded to predict the contaminant transport. in indoor air field, chen and wen (2010) utilized a multi-zone modeling approach to design systematic sensor system in buildings. it had been proved that sensor systems designed using data from simpler airflow models could perform as well as those designed using complex cfd model. arvelo et al. (2002) described the enhancements made to the contam multi-zone model and for determining the optimal placement of cbw sensors in a canonical facility representative of an office building. liu and zhai (2009) introduced an adjoint probability method to assist in optimizing high-performance iaq sensor placement and identifying potential contaminant source locations for a residential dwelling based on limited sensor outputs. more recently, fontanini et al. (2016) presented a data driven sensor placement algorithm based on dynamical systems approach. in this approach finite dimensional perron-frobenius (pf) concept was applied. the pf operator was used to construct an observability gramian that naturally incorporated sensor accuracy, location and sensing constraints. the method presented in their work could determine the response times, sensor coverage maps, and the number of sensors needed for an enclosed environment. the aforementioned studies provided several optimization methods on sensor placement and design in indoor environment and water distribution system. however, few studies have been carried out to consider the optimal sensor layout in the ventilation duct system. various methods can be used to solve the sensors layout optimization problem. the probabilistic approach based on the multi-zone contaminant transport model was applied to indoor monitoring system design (sreedharan et al. 2007; walter et al. 2012) . as far as we know that multi-objective optimization problem has competing constraints and objectives, which can produce numerous non-dominated solutions (carr et al. 2006) . to obtain the optimal solution from a large number of feasible solutions a robust algorithm is required. the ga method is one such algorithm which can address this issue (shastri and diwekar 2006) . meier and barkdol (2000) utilized ga to optimize the locations of flow measurement needed for the calibration of the water supply network. preis and ostfeld (2008) proposed the use of ga to study a multi-objective model for optimal sensor placement in the water distribution system, but the limitation was that they assumed the contaminant source was known. walter et.al (2012) doubted that the probability of release points must be considered as part of the sensor network optimization for indoor environment and this type of uncertainty is difficult to consider using ga. however, since the air duct system had more similarities with the water distribution system in both contaminants transport and hydraulic characteristics than indoor environment, we draw on the experience of sensor network design for the water distribution system for which ga method was used as an optimization tool. whenever sensors are too expensive to deploy widely throughout the whole ventilation system, the ga method may help balance the competing design constraints and the objectives of the sensor network. developing a sensor system for a specific ventilation system involves the type and number of individual sensors, their placement, the optimization objectives and the methodology of solving multi-objectives problem. this work focused on the optimal sensors layout in the entire ductwork, and took into account three optimized objective functions, i.e., minimum detection time, minimum contaminant exposure and minimum probability of undetected pollution events. the ga method was used to obtain the non-dominated solutions of multi-objectives optimization problem and the global optimal solution was selected among all of the non-dominated solutions by ordering solutions method. this work was to present an optimization method for sensors placement in the air duct system. it was also to check the required number of sensors and the independence of objective functions during the sensor layout optimization. this section is to present an optimization method for sensor placement in an air duct system in the puff-releasing scenarios. to minimize the adverse impact on the building environment served by a ventilation system, three optimal objective functions for sensor placement were selected, minimum detection time f 1 , minimum contaminant exposure f 2 , and minimum probability of undetected pollution events f 3 . ga method was used to obtain the non-dominated solutions of sensor layouts based on the calculated contaminant data. the global optimal solution for sensor layout was selected among all of the non-dominated solutions by ordering solutions method. when the basic information about air and pollutant transport in ductwork is available, the main task for optimal sensor layout is to choose a good optimization approach. to minimize detection time and occupant exposure in an artificial puffreleasing scenario, several objective functions may exist and need to be extensively defined in section2.2. here, it is confirmed that the optimization problem for this study is actually to determine the vector of decision variables that satisfies a series of constraints and optimizes a vector function whose elements represent the objective functions (chang et al. 2012; preis and ostfeld 2008) . consequently, such kind of multi-objective optimization problem can be generally expressed as follows: is vector of decision variables. s means the number of inequality constraints. l denotes the number of equality constraints. the optimization goal for sensor layout is to find one set of solution which yield optimal values with respect to all the defined objective functions from all sets of solutions satisfying eqs. (2) and (3). this group of solutions is entitled as the non-dominated solution set. each solution x in the non-dominated solution set is optimal in the sense that it is not possible to improve one objective without making at least one of the others worse (deb and kalyanmoy 2001) . any two solutions x 1 and x 2 are compared based on domination, where a solution x 1 dominates x 2 if the following conditions hold. if x 1 is strictly better than x 2 in at least one objective, then if x 1 is not worse than x 2 in all objectives, then where, "  " indicates a better performance evaluation of an objective function, m is the number of objective functions which will be determined in section 2.2. the contaminant dispersion process within the ductwork is a complicated non-linear process and the contaminant source identification is a multi-objective optimization problem. figure 1 describes the procedure of the method applied. we generate n random solutions to serve as the initial population and fitness of each solution is calculated and fig. 1 flow chart of the proposed optimization methodology applied for the sensor layout with multi-objectives in air duct system compared for all objectives. the non-dominated solutions are obtained if the conditions in eqs. (4) or (5) are met. the ordering solutions method is used to rank the nondominated solutions, and the best solution in the current population is stored in the procedure. then a new population is generated by ga operator (selection, crossover and mutation) and the information of the previous generation is retained in the new population. once a new population is generated, the aforementioned steps are repeated again. finally we obtain the global optimal solution if the process repeats for a predefined number of generations or the value of each objective tends to be constant. the objective functions for designing sensor systems for building protection purpose should be able to detect contaminants within a period of time that poses the least threat to building occupants across multiple releasing locations (chen and wen 2010) . this paper introduced three optimal objective functions, two recommended in the indoor environment by chen and wen (2008) and an extra one applied in the field of water pollution krause et al. 2008 ). the first objective function used is to minimize the detection time j det , as follows: where, p k is the probability for contaminant releasing at the k-th node. t det-k is defined as the shortest detection time among all the distributed sensors in the ductwork when the contaminant is released at the k-th node. n is the number of releasing locations. to obtain the required detection time t det-k , the corresponding time when the particle concentration occurs at the k-th node needs to be introduced. in the present work, we firstly determined a steady-state air mass distribution in the ductwork and then calculated the dynamic particle concentration following a sudden release. we took into consideration both the turbulent diffusion and deposition effect to derive the theoretical solution for the concentration dynamics in the ducts. mass balance for the contaminant in the ductwork is shown as follows (gao et al. 2016; zhao et al. 2003; feustel 1999; zhou et al. 2011 where, c is the particle concentration which is the function of location x and time t. ε x is the particle eddy diffusivity. k is the deposition coefficient. the solution for eq. (7) with puff releasing boundary could be expressed as follows (gao et al. 2016) : obviously, eq. (8) only describes the particle dispersion in main duct and has no regard for branches and outlets. however, the main and branch ducts or outlets in the ventilation system are usually inter-connected through junctions as tee or cross to form a whole ductwork. thus, we develop a general model that contains branches and outlets to extend advection-diffusion main duct flow to network flow. particle concentration at outlet m is expressed as where, u m c is the particle concentration at outlet m. u m−1 is air velocity along the duct prior to outlet m. d 1 m cis the particle concentration at downstream duct of outlet m−1. t m and t m−1 denote the time at the center of outlets m and m−1. x m and x m−1 denote the distance between the source and outlets. equation (9) has some similarities with normal distribution with parameters (μ, σ 2 ), where μ is the population mean and σ 2 is the population variance. based on the theory of statistics, we defined  and assumed the deposition coefficient k=0. then, eq. (9) could be adapted as following: according to eq. (10), if we assume that , the peak concentration at outlet m and the corresponding time when it occurs can be obtained as follows, respectively: as shown in fig. 2 , since and μ = t p m , the area beneath the dynamic concentration curve within [μ−3σ, μ+3σ] accounts for 99.73% of total area, i.e. the particle concentration outside the time range from μ−3σ to μ+3σ can be neglected. then, the onset time of particle concentration at the k-th node is obtained as (gao et al. 2016 ): here we introduced a kind of ideal sensor whose lower limit of detection is equal to the agent concentration at time μ−3σ. consequently, t det-k can be derived as the onset time of agent concentration at the nearest sensor node, i.e. the shortest detection time among all the distributed sensors in the ductwork. where, μ near is the peak time of particle concentration at the nearest sensor node. σ near is the population variance at the nearest sensor node. it should be noted that the derivation of eqs. (8)-(14) is feasible and reliable, based on the experiments using dehs (diethylhexyl sebacate) aerosols as the representative pollution (gao et al. 2016 ). the second objective function is to minimize the contaminant exposure j rel (chen and wen 2008) . total contaminant exposure e k , for releasing at the k-th node is defined as where, exp(m, t) is the contaminant exposure for the m-th air outlet at time t, and it can be calculated by eq. (16). s is the number of air outlets. for each air outlet, the exposure is approximately defined as the total contaminant mass outflow at the m-th air outlet after a puff release of contaminant. where, q m is the air volume at outlet m. the definition of other parameters in eq. (16) is the same as the one described above. then, for all n potential releasing nodes, the objective function based on the total exposure load j rel , is defined as the performance of an early warning system depends on the number of successful detections, i.e., the undetected pollution events should be as few as possible. to further increase the reliability of sensor layouts, an extra objective function was introduced to minimize the probability of undetected pollution events in this study. where, u k = 0 if the k-th contamination event is detected by the sensors. otherwise, u k = 1. n s is the total number of pollution events specified in the study. a ventilation system installed in a five-star hotel (suzhou, china) was selected as the prototype ductwork for this study. as shown in fig. 3 , the system is an all-fresh air system without air return and serves a banquet hall through air diffusers. therefore, there is a single-direction plug-flow pattern along the air ductwork in both air-conditioning and ventilation mode. it is reasonable to extract this system from the building for the case study of multi objective sensor layout optimization. fig. 3 layout of an air ductwork system applied for the optimal sensor placement, which is a full-fresh air-conditioning system serving a banquet hall in a five-star hotel. the main ducts are labelled with red as shown in fig. 4 , this prototype ductwork can be divided into 6 main ducts, 50 branch ducts and 52 nodes, where the total supply air volume at fan is 24210 m 3 /h. thirty air supply outlets are arranged along the ductwork. the spacing between the nodes is set as 4 m in case studies. air supply rate of each outlet is basically equivalent through the hydraulic commissioning before system operation. the main parameters of this ventilation system were provided in table 1 . since the biochemical attack occurred in the ventilation system is a random process, it is of practical significance to decide the typical releasing probability at the different fig. 4 prototype ductwork serving a banquet hall extracted from a real hotel building. the number together with the node is the location identifier within the air duct system. the main ducts are labelled with red and the number together with the duct is the main duct identifier nodes along the ductwork reasonably. to represent the typical releasing scenarios in the air ductwork, two modes of probability distribution throughout the releasing nodes are discussed in this study. the first mode is the average probability distribution which assumes uniform probability for each releasing node. the other one is defined as that the probability for each releasing node depends on the air volume, which means the attack should be much elaborately planned by someone familiar with the ventilation system. the two modes of probability distribution are achieved by mathematical definition of p k , the probability for contaminant releasing at k-th node. for the uniform probability distribution, where, n is the total number of concerned releasing nodes. for the air-volume based probability distribution, p k is where, q k is the air volume at the k-th node. this function means that the releasing probability at the node near the fresh air inlet will be the highest. on the basis of the two modes of releasing probability, the cases are defined in table 2 . to achieve the fitness of the three objective functions f 1 , f 2 and f 3 through the ga optimization, a contamination matrix as described by ostfeld et al. (2008) as shown in eq. (21), it is specified in this study that the number of releasing location is one, while the potential location could be at each node. the releasing time is at the system initial time and the total contaminant released is assumed 100 mg. in this case, the releasing probability for each potential node in the ventilation system as fig. 3 is equal to 1/52 and the sensor number was three. through the ga optimization, the total number of non-dominated solutions in this case is 108 when three sensors are specified. figure 5 presents the detailed sensor layout patterns for four distinct nondominated solutions in the case of uniform releasing probability. it is shown that sensors are placed at the main ducts in solutions 1.1 and 1.2, which meets the objectives of f 1 and f 2 , respectively. however, in solution 1.3 the three sensors are set at the ends of the ductwork to meet the objective of f 3 . finally, in the case of uniform probability distribution of contaminant releasing at all potential nodes, an optimal solution 1.4 is obtained based on all the three objectives. to further analyze how the three objectives mutually link or compete, the tradeoff relationship between the objectives of f 1 and f 3 and between the objectives of f 1 and f 2 are generalized in figs. 6 and 7. as shown in fig. 6 , with the tradeoff between f 1 and f 3 , the detection time increases while the probability of undetected pollution events decrease. it takes only 9.2 s for solution 1.1 to detect the agent with the objective of f 1 . however, 35.8 s more are required for figure 7 presents the tradeoff relationship between the objective of f 1 and f 2 . it is observed that the detection time increases while the contaminant exposure increases. it takes 10.5 s for solution 1.2 to detect the agent, only 1.3 s later than solution 1.1. meanwhile, particle outflows through air outlet are almost the same in the two optimal solutions. it is noted that the objectives of f 1 and f 2 are compatible during optimization, which has not been clearly discussed in the previous studies wen 2010, 2012) . this convergent result can give rise to reconsideration of the objective functions. figure 8 shows the tradeoff behavior of the objective values among all 108 non-dominated solutions with the three objective functions and also presents the global optimal solution, solution 1.4, obtained by the ordering solutions method (deb and kalyanmoy 2001) . the derivation of the ordering solutions method could be express as follows then, the priority order number can be obtained by , 1,2 , , , where, x i and x j are the non-dominated solutions with objective set i. if we compare all the priority order numbers for each non-dominated solutions, the biggest priority order number can be selected and the corresponding solution is the global optimal solution. it is observed from fig. 8 that the optimal solution is characterized by relatively low detection time and contaminant exposure but relatively high probability of undetected pollution events. according to eq. (22), if the objectives of f 1 and f 2 both approach minimum, the priority order number tends to be bigger than the situation when the objective of f 3 tends to be minimum. it implies that the optimal solution is more determined by the objectives of f 1 and f 2 . as shown in table 3 , this overall optimal solution actually takes on 20% more probability of undetected pollution events compared with the lowest one by solution 1.3 to preferentially ensure the fast detection and less exposure. fig. 9 the probability pk for the releasing at each potential node based on air volume-based releasing probability when the objective f 1 or f 2 is dominated and to be placed at the end of the ventilation system when the objective f 3 is preferred. such placement pattern is much similar to that of case 1. finally, the global optimal solution 2.4 is obtained based on all of the three objectives. tradeoff relationship between the objective of f 1 and f 3 and the one between the objective of f 1 and f 2 were also generalized for case 2. as shown in figs. 11 and 12 , it is observed again in this case that the objectives of f 1 and f 3 were incompatible, while the objectives of f 1 and f 2 are compatible during the optimization. figure 13 shows the tradeoff behavior of the objective values among all nondominated solutions with the three objective functions, and it also presents the final optimal solution, solution 2.4, for case 2. it is observed again that the optimal solution is characteristic of relatively low detection time and contaminant exposure but relatively high probability of undetected pollution events. compared with case 1, the minimum detection time is 3.6 s earlier, and the minimum contaminant exposure in case 2 is 20.5 mg less (see table 4 ). it can be explained that there is higher releasing probability at nodes close to the fresh air inlet in case 2, which will shorten the detection time and reduce the contaminant exposure as well. meanwhile, in the global optimal result for case 2, the probability of undetected pollution events is 17.1%, much lower than that in case 1. this is caused by the much lower releasing probability at the end of the ductwork in this case. in this section, firstly, the comparison of optimal sensor layouts based on different sensor numbers was discussed. secondly, the simplification of optimal objectives was investigated by consideration of the compatibility observed in section 3.2. thirdly, the impact of the assumed deposition coefficient k on optimal results was studied. finally, we take into consideration both the effect of various airflow distribution and manual releasing. sensor quantity affects the detection time, contaminant exposure and the probability of undetected pollution events. it is of importance to investigate the optimization results based on different number of sensors. figure 14 presents the global optimal sensor locations with the air volume-based releasing probability with one, three and five sensors. it is observed that the layout pattern tends to be more dispersive along the ductwork with increased sensor quantity. figure 15 describes the tradeoff relationship between objective functions of f 1 and f 3 and the optimal results when using different number of sensors. from all the nondominated solutions, the objective function values tend to decrease as the sensor quantity increases in the air duct system. it is found that one sensor can never achieve a probability of undetected pollution events less than 12% nor obtain the detection time shorter than 19.0 s, while the global optimal solution of one sensor layout shows that the values of f 1 and f 3 are 21.0 s and 26.2%, respectively. compared with the global optimal results, the minimum detection time is fig. 15 tradeoff curves of non-dominated solutions between the objective f1 and f3, and the optimal solutions with different number of sensors almost the same when the number of sensors was increased from 3 to 5 while the probability of undetected pollution events is reduced by 8.1%. it is also found the convergence generation of ga optimization is increased from 1227 to 6014 when the number of sensors is increased from 3 to 5. if the sensor cost (portable sensor, $7500 each) and computational load are considered, the optimal sensor quantity for this specific ventilation system can be reasonably recommended as 3. it means that if the total sensor quantity is chosen less than this recommended sensor quantity, the minimum detection time will increase a lot. generally, in order to maximize building protection, both specific sensor quantity and optimal sensor placement are required. it should be noted that different sensor quantity needs to be considered to obtain the optimal sensor layouts. meanwhile, there should be a balance between the desired optimal results and the cost of the sensor system. as there is compatibility between the objectives of f 1 and f 2 described in figs. 7 and 12, the purpose of minimizing detection time is actually coupled with the minimum contaminant exposure, and the objectives required sensors are to be set close to the potential releasing location. thus, it is necessary to verify the "fairness" of competition between the objectives and to discuss the feasibility of objective simplification. tables 5 and 6 presents the comparison between three and two objective functions on convergence generations, sensor node locations and the final values of the objective functions, while the minimum contaminant exposure is neglected. the results indicate that the integration of objective f 1 and f 2 do not significantly shorten the detection time, reduce the contaminant exposure nor decrease the probability of undetected pollution events. such integration leads to very similar placement of sensors, but results in much convergence load. from this work, it is feasible to reduce one of the two objectives f 1 and f 2 . the deposition coefficient k in eq. (7) was calculated by k=pv d /a (you and wan 2014) , where a is the cross sectional area of the duct. p is the cross sectional perimeter of duct and v d is the particle deposition velocity. the reasonable range of v d was indicated by zhao and wu (2006) . in the aforementioned studies, the deposition coefficient k was assumed to be 0 since we didn't conduct any experiment on the particle deposition velocity v d . however, it does not mean that the deposition coefficient k has no effect on the optimization results. further, we take consideration of the k to calculate the results of objective functions. according to eq. (18), the probability of undetected pollution events only relates to the probability for contaminant releasing p k . thus, the k has no effect on the result of f 3 . according to eq. (9), if the deposition coefficient k≠0, then eq. (10) can be rewritten as follows: equation (25) the corresponding time of the peak concentration when it occurs is equal to the description in eq. (12). we substituted eqs. (12) and (25) into eqs. (13) and (16). it was noted that the deposition coefficient k had no effect on the prediction of the sensor detection time. it only affected the result of the total contaminant exposure (f 2 ). the change in k is proportional to the change in the result of f 2 . thus, if the total contaminant exposure of the sensor placement i when k is neglected is minimum, the sensor placement i also has the minimum f 2 when k is considered. figure 16 describes the total contaminant mass entering the chamber on the condition of various particle deposition velocity v d based on the uniform probability distribution in case 1. it can be observed that the v d increases while the total contaminant exposure decreases. therefore, it is beneficial for sensor network design when the deposition coefficient k is involved. table 7 , the fan frequency was adjusted to alter the air speed of each duct, so that the air volume distribution changed in the ventilation system. the sensor detection time t det-k and the total contaminant exposure e k both changed according to eqs. (13) and (16). figure 17 presents the objective function values of f 1 and f 2 based on various air volume distributions. the results indicate that the air speed of each duct also reduces. the sensor detection time t det-k increases with the same sensor placement and releasing probability assumption based on eq. (13). meanwhile, the time increase is inversely proportional to the air speed reduction. for the total contaminant exposure e k , according to eqs. (15) and (16), t det-k increases while the air volume at outlet q m decreases as the air speed reduces. however, we cannot give qualitative judgments on the total contaminant exposure due to the uncertainty of instantaneous concentration at air outlet. it is found that the increase of e k is less than 4.0% with different airflow distribution. fig. 17 the impact of various flow distributions on both the sensor detection time and the total contaminant exposure therefore, although the required detection time increases, the variation of total contaminant entering the room is small due to the reduction of the air speed. such results mean that the sensor placement optimization based on the designed air volume distribution can be adapted to the altered flow distribution. the optimal solutions of sensor placement are significantly influenced by the source location. actually, the biochemical attack occurred in the ventilation system is a random process and we cannot ascertain in advance where the attacker may release the source. consider an ideal situation, we manually place a contaminant source at the fresh air inlet (see the node 1 in fig. 4) , in this case, if no sensor is arranged in the ventilation system, the pollutants will follow the airflow and transport through the whole ductwork, causing the affected indoor area reaching the maximum. meanwhile, almost all of the contaminant will eventually enter the room, which may lead to numerous casualties. however, since we know that the source of contamination is at the node 1, only one sensor is enough at the node 2 which is nearest to the source location to obtain the optimal sensor layout in the air duct system. then, the pollutant can be detected within the shortest time after releasing. if we shut down the fan immediately, pollutants can't even reach the air outlets. pollutants spread very slowly without the convection effect of air supply, which makes time for evacuation of indoor occupants. it should be pointed out that the sensor optimization in this ideal case is a local optimization process. in fact, each sensor layout optimization resulted from the manually placed source is a local optimization. such a sensor placement cannot adapt the early warning situations because the source location may change. thus, two modes of probability distribution are proposed, covering all nodes in the ventilation system. we reasonably turn the manually placed source into the probabilistic source, which makes the local optimization become a global optimization. the objective function values such as the detection time and total contaminant exposure resulted from the manually placed source are preferable to the values obtained from the probabilistic source. however, the optimal sensor layout based on the assumption of the probability distribution of the source is appropriate for the entire air duct system, while the assumption of manually placed source considers only one node. obviously, the aforementioned case 1 is the most unfavorable case since the attack is a completely random process. compared with the case 1, it is assumed in case 2 that the source releasing probability is based on the air volume, which means that the attackers know well of the ventilation system. namely, the description of attacker's behavior is included in case 2. thus, the objective function values resulted from case2 are better than that from case1. in this work, an optimization method for sensor placement in an air duct system was presented. three optimal objectives were applied and ga method was utilized to obtain the non-dominated solutions of multi-objectives optimization problem. the global optimal solution was selected among all of the non-dominated solutions by the ordering solutions method. the main conclusions are provided as follows.  optimal sensor layouts are sensitized to the contaminant releasing probability distribution. it is found that the optimal sensor layout with higher releasing probability specified at nodes which is close to the fresh air inlet (i.e., volume-based releasing scenario) resulted in shorter detection time, smaller contaminant exposure and lower probability of pollution events. such result means that a pertinent strategy of sensor placement is possible to well respond to an elaborated releasing event.  some of the objective functions have conflicting goals. the results of optimal sensor layouts against suddenly released contaminant in the ventilation system of this study are generally characterized by relatively low detection time and contaminant exposure and conversely relatively high probability of undetected pollution events, due to the predominant effect of objectives of f 1 and f 2 . the reason can be explained that the solution mainly determined by the objectives of f 1 and f 2 has the biggest priority order number among all non-dominated solutions, which meet the selection criteria of optimal solution in the ordering solutions method.  sensor quantity required for a ventilation system is affected by the objective competition, sensor cost and computational load. the increase of sensor number leads to shorter detection time, smaller contaminant exposure and lower probability of undetected pollution events. with the required values for objectives, it is able to derive the sensor quantity and design an optimal sensor system for a specific ventilation system. future work should be further studied on the impact of sensor type, sensitivity, accuracy and other characteristics on the sensor system design for ventilation system. a design approach for sensor system considering various potential contaminant releasing scenarios should also be studied. computational intelligence techniques for hvac systems: a review. building simulation an enhanced multizone model and its application to optimum placement of cbw sensors contaminant source identification within a building: toward design of immune buildings an evidential reasoning approach to optimal monitoring of drinking water distribution systems for detecting deliberate contamination events robust optimization of contaminant sensor placement for community water systems optimal sensor deployment in a large-scale complex drinking water network: comparisons between a rule-based decision support system and optimization models predicting transient particle transport in enclosed environments with the combined cfd and markov chain method sensor system design for building indoor air protection comparison of sensor systems designed using multizone, zonal, and cfd data for protection of indoor environments the selection of the most appropriate airflow model for designing indoor air sensor systems using probabilistic sampling-based sensitivity analyses for indoor air quality modelling multi-objective optimization using evolutionary algorithms security-oriented sensor placement in intelligent buildings comis-an international multizone air-flow and contaminant transport model a methodology for optimal placement of sensors in enclosed environments: a dynamical systems approach solution for sudden contamination transport through air duct system: under a puff release countering chemical and biological terrorism modeling immune building systems for bioterrorism defense efficient sensor placement optimization for securing large water distribution networks protecting a whole building from critical indoor contamination with optimal sensor network design and source identification methods sampling design for network model calibration using genetic algorithms optimal layout of early warning detection stations for water distribution systems security the battle of the water sensor networks (bwsn): a design challenge for engineers and algorithms bioterrorism preparedness: the united kingdom approach multiobjective contaminant sensor network design for water distribution systems sensor placement in water networks: a stochastic programming approach siting bio-samplers in buildings rapidly locating and characterizing pollutant releases in buildings systems approach to evaluating sensor characteristics for real-time monitoring of high-risk indoor contaminant releases influence of indoor transport and mixing time scales on the performance of sensor systems for characterizing contaminant releases towards improved characterization of high-risk releases using heterogeneous indoor sensor systems survey of bioterrorism risk in buildings use of system dynamics as a decisionmaking tool in building design and operation siting samplers to minimize expected time to detection formulation and optimization of robust sensor placement problems for drinking water contamination warning system inverse identification of multiple outdoor pollutant sources with a mobile sensor particle concentration dynamics in the ventilation duct after an artificial release: for countering potential bioterrorist attack optimal sensor placement for airborne contaminant detection in an aircraft cabin an inverse method based on cfd to quantify the temporal release rate of a continuously released pollutant source a simplified system for indoor airflow simulation modeling particle deposition onto rough walls in ventilation duct how particle resuspension from inner surfaces of ventilation ducts affects indoor air quality-a modeling analysis wireless sensor network based monitoring system for a large-scale indoor space: data process and supply air allocation optimization this work was supported by the national natural science foundation of china (no. 51278370). key: cord-262719-onjxtixk authors: williams, richard a. title: user experiences using flame: a case study modelling conflict in large enterprise system implementations date: 2020-09-19 journal: simul model pract theory doi: 10.1016/j.simpat.2020.102196 sha: doc_id: 262719 cord_uid: onjxtixk the complexity of systems now under consideration (be they biological, physical, chemical, social, etc), together with the technicalities of experimentation in the real-world and the non-linear nature of system dynamics, means that computational modelling is indispensible in the pursuit of furthering our understanding of complex systems. agent-based modelling and simulation is rapidly increasing in its popularity, in part due to the increased appreciation of the paradigm by the non-computer science community, but also due to the increase in the usability, sophistication and number of modelling frameworks that use the approach. the flexible large-scale agent-based modelling environment (flame) is a relatively recent addition to the list. flame was designed and developed from the outset to deal with massive simulations, and to ensure that the simulation code is portable across different scales of computing and across different operating systems. in this study, we report our experiences when using flame to model the development and propagation of conflict within large multi-partner enterprise system implementations, which acts as an example of a complex dynamical social system. we believe flame is an excellent choice for experienced modellers, who will be able to fully harness the capabilities that it has to offer, and also be competent in diagnosing and solving any limitations that are encountered. conversely, because flame requires considerable development of instrumentation tools, along with development of statistical analysis scripts, we believe that it is not suitable for the novice modeller, who may be better suited to using a graphical user interface driven framework until their experience with modelling and competence in programming increases. over the past two decades, the use of computational approaches to investigate social systems, including organizational and behavioural research has progressed from mere quantitative data analysis to one that complements traditional social science techniques through the use of advanced techniques 5 in modelling and simulation. the techniques used within computational social science have evolved from mathematical approaches that utilize deterministic or stochastic equations, through to computational modelling approaches such as agent-based modelling and simulation [1, 2] . an advantage of these computational modelling approaches is the ability to fully control 10 the underlying mechanistic component interactions of the model, thus once a computational model is established, quick studies of the effects of changes to the elements and associated parameter values can be seen through equationsolving or simulation. as such, simulation-based experimental results from a well engineered model are directly related to the level of abstraction and 15 assumptions made during model design and development. this provides a firm basis for testing hypotheses on the mechanisms behind social behaviours and dynamics than traditional approaches such as participant observations or action research, where the unseen variables/factors can introduce additional complexity and uncertainty, which limits our ability to translate interpreta20 tions of observational/qualitative results to the real-world system. real-world systems are complex, with a range of system behaviours, properties and characteristics that emerge from the low-level interactions of a highly connected set of system components that function through temporal and spatial dimensions. one of the main strengths of the systems approach to 25 investigating complex systems, is that it focuses on three key properties when modelling the systems: 1) system structures, 2) system dynamics, and 3) system control [3] . indeed, previous discussions around agent-based modelling and simulation (abms) advise that it can be used to test working theories of the underlying mechanics of component interactions within systems and their 30 resulting dynamics [4, 5] . as such, we believe that abms is the preferred approach to facilitate the micro-to-macro mapping of complex dynamical systems, in particular, social systems [6] . this is performed through altering the way in which agent interactions occur, or relaxing of assumptions at the individual agent-level, in order to investigate the emergence of system-level 35 behaviours at the system-level. we therefore believe that abms provides a low-cost computational approach for developing hypotheses of the real-world system. with abms having recently become accepted as a scientific instrument for investigation [7] , it is now imperative that agent-based models (abms) adhere to the scientific method through a principled approach to 40 their design, development and use, to ensure they are fit-for-purpose [4] . technology advances in hardware architecture, data storage and processing speed over the past twenty years has encouraged the development of new simulation frameworks that can handle increasingly complex computational models. with respect to abms, this has resulted in the development 45 of a number of frameworks aimed at either subject matter experts or novice modellers, which use graphical user interfaces, or experienced computational modellers that are comfortable with command line terminals, a range of basic programming languages and shell scripting. a relatively new abms framework that falls in the latter category is the flexible large-scale agent-based 50 modelling environment (flame). within this study we have used flame to model the development and propagation of conflict within a large multipartner enterprise system implementation. this manuscript provides an account of our experiences in using flame, with particular reference to a number of it's strengths and weaknesses with 55 respect to: abm design; abm development; constraints due to its underlying technical architecture; and performance. in particular, we highlight: the ease of model design for experienced computational modellers who are familiar with object-oriented programming and the unified modelling language (uml); and the ease of model development for experienced computational 60 modellers who are comfortable with the logic behind uml state transition diagrams. in addition, we discuss a number of significant constraints of flame due to the underlying architecture, such as: issues when setting the pseudo-random number generator seed value; the inability to send messages between simulation time-steps; the inability to use global mutable parameters; performance challenges due to the i/o rate-limiting characteristics and the need for significant fast storage allocation to accommodate realistic simulations of social systems. the manuscript is structured as follows: section 2 provides an overview of the major concepts that contribute to the theory behind our study; section 3 discusses the case study; section 70 4 provides an account of our user experiences when using flame to model the case study; section 5 is the discussion section; and section 6 provides our conclusions. this section provides an overview of the major concepts that contribute 75 to the theory behind our study. social networks and the various dynamics and emergent behaviours that develop from interactions between individual human agents are complex, meaning that they often display non-linear dynamics. computational social 80 scientists often model these social dynamics through equation-based mathematical approaches (e.g., system dynamics or differential equations) or abms. these computational modelling approaches facilitate the analysis and investigation of complex social systems that would otherwise be intractable. this may be due to direct experimentation of the system being either unethical or 85 impossible across the scale and hierarchies of the social system; difficulties in observing system dynamics due to extremely short or indeed large timescales; difficulties in observing the whole population due to the magnitude of the system, or to the location or complexity of the system (e.g., virtual team). importantly, it is frequently apparent that a significant amount of data 90 generated through observations, participant interviews or surveys in the social sciences, accumulates and is collected in a manner comparable to the object-oriented paradigm for design of computational systems. historically, computational modellers have taken inspiration from the natural and physical sciences and utilized the reductionist approach, which advocates that 95 systems should be investigated through their decomposition to their smallest indivisible unit, which we believe is analogous to looking for 'objects' within nature. as such, we believe that an object-oriented approach to computational modelling, through the use of a bottom-up approach for design and development of the models is a useful formalism for modellers in general, 100 and those interested in computational social systems in particular. abms intuitively expands upon the object-oriented approach to model design and development, and significantly benefits through the principal enhancement that an agent is active instead of passive, and secondarily, that abms is not bound by a central computational mechanism of control, but instead has multiple threads of control. macal and north [8] provide a tutorial on abms, which describes this by stating that the "fundamental feature of an agent is the capacity of the component to make independent decisions". in addition, jennings [9] further extends the notion of an agent by advising that they are asynchronous components of a computational model that interact 110 with the environment. as such, agents have the capability to sense their environment, and through processing the input(s) that they receive from the environment, may act upon it. the origins of abms are in the modelling and simulation of human societies, systems, and networks and the associated dynamics and relationships 115 within these hierarchical structures [10], with particular connection to the fields of: complex systems, computer science, and management science [8] . in fact, the agent-based approach was developed to allow investigation of complex social systems at the level of individual actors/people, so borrowed the reductionist perspective from the natural sciences. the belief 120 here, which was also borrowed from engineering, is that complex systems are built from the ground up, which was a marked contrast to the beliefs of systems thinkers who took a top-down view. since its inception, the agentbased approach has gained the attention of researchers from fields far away from its origins within the social sciences. examples of the use of abms 125 to model complex dynamical social systems include: the seemingly inocuous renting and sales patterns of houseowners/tennants within a reimplementation of shelling's bounded neighbourhood model [11] ; the most recent banking crisis associated with the british banking sector [12] ; the way that virtual project team performance is affected by communication technologies 130 [13] ; and the recent covid-19 pandemic [14] . the behaviour of individual agents is dictated by rules for their behaviour(s) and interactions. the interactions between compatible agents gives rise to behaviour(s) and dynamics at the system-level. this population-level behaviour, develops through the aggregated dynamics of individual agents, 135 and is consequently deemed an emergent behaviour because it is not defined in the technical design of the computational model. epstein [6] advises that this study of the emergent system-level behaviours is one of the key advantages of the abm approach, and the ability to investigate the effects of the heterogeneous and autonomous individual agents has led to its increased 140 adoption over the past decade [8, 10] . moreover, an agent-based approach allows the modeller to design and develop the model by explicitly taking the individual agent's location into consideration, which results in the model more accurately reflecting the spatial aspects of the complex social system, and in particular the network of social interactions within the system. the engineering of viable computational models of social networks is not a straightforward process. this is due to the real-world system containing multiple feedback signals and non-linear dynamics, along with the model requiring the use of numerous parameters whose values have a degree of uncertainty (or may even be unknown) from observations/participant inter-150 views. this uncertainty is further compounded through the introduction of randomness at key decision points/system events to provide the heterogeneity in behaviours that are seen across a population of human actors within the system [15] . abms equips the model developer with a set of techniques to integrate multiple data types gained from empirical data collection and 155 knowledge themes gained from secondary data sources. furthermore, one of the key strengths of the agent-based approach is that it allows us to model the complex non-deterministic and heterogeneous behaviours, which allows us to investigate the role of differences in chracteristics (e.g., demographic or behavioural) of individuals within social systems and develop testable hy-160 potheses for new empirical research. see williams [4] for lessons learned on development and application of abms of complex dynamical systems. the work of nikolai and madey [16] has reviewed the main agent-based modelling frameworks available, and discussed their different computational underpinnings; examples include mason [17] , repast [18] , and netlogo 165 [19] . the commonality between all of these frameworks, is that they represent the individual agent as having a specific state at any particular point in time. consequently, representations of each individual agent may be considered as a state machine, where the combination of current and previous inputs (previous states), along with the logic/functions associated with the agent-170 type, determines the output (next state) of the agent. increasing progress in hardware architecture, storage and speed over the past twenty years has encouraged the development of new simulation frameworks that can handle increasingly complex computational models, which simulate at magnitudes and dimensions that are much more closely aligned to 175 real-world societal populations. for example, the flexible large-scale agentbased modelling environment (flame 1 ) was developed [20] to provide an intuitive development framework for large-scale abms. flame was developed for use over the full range of computer hardware, which allows for the early coding and unit/system testing on a personal computer, before be-180 ing moved to high-performance computing infrastructure for full-scale testing and simulation. flame has been used by researchers across a variety of domains, ranging from biology [21], to economics [22] , to human resources [23] , to transport and logistics [24] . the flame simulation framework comprises a collection of application programming interfaces (apis), templates to define the agent-based model, and compilation and parsing routines to create the c code for running simulations. due to flame's conceptual architecture being based on communicating stream x-machines, templates are used to define the rule-based 190 functions (written in c code) of agents, with the agent types being defined through xml templates, and the instantiation of the initial iteration of a simulation run using another xml template that defines the attributes and internal agent states for the simulation run. flame requires installation and configuration of the message passing interface (mpi) to develop mes-195 sages that communicate interactions between specific agents and changes within the system's environment. these agent interactions are simulated through transition functions that specify the rule-based logic of the abm, with all agents that transition to a new state having their internal memory updated accordingly. following specification of the model in the appropriate 200 templates (e.g., c and xml), the xparser tool is used to generate simulation code (see figure 1 ). the xparser is written in c with the use of standard libraries, and is actually a collection of template files and header files that are stored in the desired directory of the computer (i.e., laptop, desktop, or hpc) and compiled using the freely available gcc compiler. furthermore, 205 through the use of the mpi communication framework, the generated simulation code is also portable to hpc platforms that use parallel architectures, thus enabling efficient communication between agents that may be across different compute nodes, and therefore remain in sync [25] . an x-machine is a formalized specification developed by eilenberg [27] 210 that has the capability to model both the system's data and the specification method (function) for controlling the system. they were originally introduced in 1974, but did not receive widespread acknowledgement in the modelling community until 1988 [28] when the approach was advocated as figure 1 : flame relies on the definition of models using the xml and c templates, and their parsing and subsequent compilation into simulation code. this simulation code is then run, through linking the main executable file to an initial starting parameters file (0.xml). due to flame utilizing the discrete-event approach, individual simulation runs generate separate output files for each time-step increment within the simulation, with each output file acting as the input file for the subsequent simulation time-step (after [26] ). the basis for a formal model specification language. subsequently, this was 215 built upon in 1992 through the concept of stream x-machines, which utilized sets of input and output symbols that were read through in a stream. from a conceptual modelling perspective, x-machines employ both a diagrammatic approach and formal notation to model the system, where the x-machine contains infinite internal memory, a set of functions, and a current state. the 220 current state of control (the function defined in the specification method) and the current state of the memory, is processed alongside an input symbol from the input stream to determine the next state of the x-machine, update it's memory state, and calculate the output symbol, which becomes part of the output stream that is used for communicating to other x-machines. this can be summarized in that the system's new state is a product of it's current state (using memory and reference to a list of input symbols) and the relevant function [29] . a communicating stream x-machine model is a formalized specification that builds upon that of x-machines to introduce additional modelling cap-230 abilities. in particular, communicating stream x-machines can be used to compute the functional behaviour of the system at a lower-level of granularity (i.e., individual agents), whose individual dynamics may be aggregated up to the overall system level in order to generate the emergent behaviour of the system as a whole. the formal notation of the communicating stream x-machine specification utilizes a 10-tuple notation, with c x i representing the i th communicating stream x-machine component, which is defined by stamatopoulou [30] as: 240 -î£ and î� are respectively the input and output alphabets. -q is the finite set of real-world system states. -m is the (possibly) infinite set that relates to memory. -î¦, the type of the x-machine x, is a set of partial functions ï� that translates a specific input and a specific memory state to a specific output and a possibly different memory state, ï� : î£ x m â�� î� x m. -f is the next state partial function, f : q x î¦ â�� q, which given a state and a function from the type î¦ determines the next state. f is often described as a state transition diagram. -q 0 and m 0 are respectively the initial state and initial memory. -iî¦ i is the communication interface for the input messages. -oî¦ i is the communication interface for the output messages. an x-machine is defined by holcombe [28] as a system that has internal memory and an internal computational state, which dependent on environmental input and their current internal state, can transition to another computational state (see figure 2 ). the additional functionality incorporated into 245 communicating stream x-machines means that they are able to model in a single process specification, the functional behaviours and dynamics of an agent, as well as the intrinsic system data that it is modelling. a communication matrix using mpi facilitates communication (and thus interactions) between individual communicating stream x-machines. this communica-250 tion matrix is essentially a simulation-level message board that facilitates the reading and writing of information between every communicating stream x-machine. the gartner group devised the term enterprise resource planning (erp) 255 in 1990 [32] to define the software that provided functionality for organizations to use to manage their core administrative (back office) functions such as finance, payroll and human resources. a number of leading software vendors (e.g., oracle, jd edwards, peoplesoft and sap) offered erp software packages to store the organizational data and provide assistance to 260 facilitate compliance to a standardized set of business processes [33] . with the expansion of information systems (is) and information technology (it) throughout the late twentieth century, the individual software modules that focused on the different organizational business functions were integrated together. these larger software systems, which were termed enterprise sys-265 tems, not only integrated the individual erp modules, but also provided additional functionality, such as business intelligence, advanced planning, and automatically processing data from external supplier/customer relationships. enterprise systems are now commonly used to help organizations (of all sizes) manage their human, financial and physical resources (e.g., staff, 270 money, and products) along with key external relationships (e.g., customers and suppliers) more effectively [34] . enterprise systems require considerable time and resource commitments in order to be implemented properly within an organization. these implementation projects within large organizations are usually implemented by 275 third-party service providers, with the largest implementations using the consultancy services of both the vendor (e.g., sap or oracle) and professional services firms (e.g., accenture, ibm, capgemini, etc.). the various customer, vendor, and professional services personnel are usually structured into project teams that relate to the functional modules within the enterprise 280 system, such as finanicals, payroll and human resources, which gives rise to a wider implementation programme. whitty [35] has postulated that the increasing complexity and scale of reach into the business by these enterprise system implementation programmes, contributes to them exhibiting similar behaviours and traits to those of com-285 plex systems. we have previously discussed that the emergent behaviour generated within the social network of these large implementation programmes, may, to a large degree, be due to the complexity stemming from the large number of team members, and the growing trend of using multiple thirdparty providers to implement the individual projects that combine to form 290 the programme. in addition, we discovered that the individual project teams may have competing priorities and objectives, and that these may lead to various forms of conflict propagating throughout the wider programme, which we view as a social network of formal workplace relationships [36]. conflict within group situations, such as the project teams that implement functional modules of enterprise system software, has been defined as interpersonal incompatibilities or the holding of divergent views/perspectives amidst the members/participants, which may be individuals within a single group (intragroup conflict) or between different groups (intergroup conflict) 300 [37] . conflict has been reasoned to be an intrinsic part of group [38] and project team dynamics, which can propagate throughout the network of group members as a shared affect [36] . conflict develops during a variety of circumstances relating to the implementation of group-and team-based activities, and in three main forms: task, process, and relationship conflict [39] . 305 enterprise system implementations at large organizations, often require the personnel, expertise and resources of multiple third-party organizations, which may have different, and often incompatible, business objectives and commercial drivers. as discussed above, the programme-wide implementation of the enterprise system is routinely divided into discrete project teams 310 that map on to the corresponding functional modules within the enterprise system software (e.g., finance, payroll, hr). our recent study [36] showed that within large multi-partner enterprise system implementations, conflict (be that task, process or relationship) can develop between members of a particular project team, or between members of different project teams, and once 315 developed, can propagate throughout the social network of the multi-partner enterprise system implementation. furthermore, this study conceptualized the propagation of conflict within large multi-partner enterprise system implementations as conflict propagating between team members of an individual project team, and also between team members that are situated within dif-320 ferent project teams (see figure 3 ). in addition, we built upon the work of gamero et al. [40] who discovered that conflict is dynamic and can transition over time, by hypothesizing that task or process conflict can transition to relationship conflict, and that relationship conflict (being directly related to shared affect), is the most common form of conflict to propagate through 325 the social network of enterprise system implementations. we therefore hypothesize that the conflict, which initially developed between a subset of team members from two different project teams, has the potential to propagate throughout the social network of the wider enterprise system structure, and may negatively affect implementation of the enterprise system as a whole. the case study relates to a large uk-based organization that was implementing an enterprise system along with associated it hardware as part of a major strategic modernization initiative. this is/it change programme was underpinned by the need to integrate the enterprise system with multiple, 335 existing, third-party legacy systems, to facilitate significant cost savings and promote more efficient business processes. the client selected a large enterprise applications vendor to implement the installation and configuration of the enterprise system, and to lead the design and assist in the development of the technical architecture that the enterprise system was embedded within. in addition, two different professional service providers were also contracted to act as domain expert consultants for the configuration and extension of functional modules within the enterprise system, along with a third professional service provider who consulted on the hardware and middleware requirements for hosting the enterprise system. such an environment is best described as a multi-partner enterprise system programme implementation. the resulting social network was structured into project teams that aligned to the functional modules within the enterprise system, along with a programme management office (pmo) and project teams that focused on developing technical extensions (e.g., cus-350 tom forms, reports, and database triggers), training material, and installing and configuring the technical architecture that hosted the enterprise system. overall, there were 159 resources from these five organizations, with 972 undirected workplace relationships between them, which formed the basis of the social network map (see figure 4 ). the conceptual framework presen-355 ted in [36], acted as our conceptual model for the abm, by providing the phenomenological behaviours that are the basis of the emergent behaviours generated from the abm (see figure 3 ), alongside the detailed person-level data and social network map that formed the basis for the individual agents within our computational model, and the rules that dictate which agents can 360 interact with each other. the case therefore constitutes a large multi-partner enterprise system implementation, which utilizes is/it consulting personnel from four external organizations. these external resources were combined with client resources, to form a number of project teams that align to the underlying functional modules of the enterprise system. the resources worked together within their respective project team, with a number of them also acting as bridgers to interact with other project teams, which is diagrammatically represented in figure 4 as the programme-wide interfirm social network. this multi-partner social network, introduces a risk that conflict may develop due to the differing 370 backgrounds of project team personnel (e.g., different professional identities, cultural backgrounds, education, and normalized behaviours), along with their constrasting drivers and motives for being at their chosen employer (and occupation), and thus on the implementation programme. it was discussed in our previous work [36] , that conflict is to all intents and purposes inherent 375 within large multi-partner enterprise system implementations, and as such is almost always going to occur at some point during the lifecycle of the programme-wide implementation, or within one or more of its constituent project teams. our abm has been designed to model this case. it allows us to simulate the development and propagation of conflict throughout the 380 social network of the workplace relationships within the individual project teams and the wider programme as a whole. the abm [41] was designed and developed to reflect findings from our previous qualitative studies [36, 42] . in the subsections below, we discuss our 385 experiences using flame following the design, development, and simulationbased experimentation of an abm of conflict development and propagation within our case study. our discussion focuses on four main areas: the ease of model design having made the decision to use flame; the ease of model development using flame; constraints due to the underlying architecture 390 of flame; and performance of flame in running simulations. as discussed above, the flame simulation framework utilizes the concept of communicating stream x-machines to define the logical entities and the rule-based logic of their interactions within the agent-based model. the con-395 ceptual framework [36, 42] , acted as the functional specification for our abm, which in turn was used as the basis for developing our technical specification. when developing the technical specification, we were cognizant of the underlying architecture of flame, and made explicit reference to: the c programming language and the xml markup language, which were used for 400 coding agent interaction functionality and defining agents; the communicating stream x-machine architecture for defining agents and their associated behaviours and dynamics; along with the use of the centralized message board to facilitate communication between agents. briefly, our technical specification consisted of a two-dimensional, undirected network of 159 agents that represented the individual team members from the case study. communication between individual members followed the rules specified in the adjacency matrix and resulting social network map (figure 4), and this communication within the abm is modelled as a process with no velocity (i.e., link between two agents, but no speed). specification of the agents was straightforward because the communicating stream x-machine architecture facilitates easy compliance to an object-oriented approach to design. in addition, flame is flexible with respect to defining the physical boundary of the model, which allowed us to design a 2-dimensional physical environment for our abm, and the use of cartesian co-ordinates 415 to position individual agents within the environment. this allowed us to group agents together in 2-dimensional space to represent the clustering of resources into their respective project team, and to disperse individual teams within an open-plan office, another office in the building, or potentially in another location. system-level behaviours corresponded to those depicted in our rich picture (figure 3), with the main agent attributes that facilitate simulation of conflict development and propagation relating to: project team (e.g., programme, hr, financials, etc.); organization (e.g., client, vendor, consulting firm); role type (e.g., management, functional, technical, training); conflict quotient for each type of conflict; stress quotient for each type of conflict; and formal authority quotient, which indicates how much formal authority/power the agent has over others. with respect to communication between agents, although flame utilizes a centralized message board, we were able to design restrictions into the communication mechanism to ensure 430 agent communication corresponded to the workplace social interactions, as defined within the adjacency matrix from our case study (i.e., the 972 workplace relationships between agents). this was facilitated through adding an attribute to the agent definition that explicitly defined the other agents that it is able to communicate and interact with. one point to note is that when diagrammatically modelling an x-machine as part of the technical specification, the x-machine state is associated with the computational system state transitions and does not correlate to the social (domain specific) states. these internal x-machine state transitions are achieved through the use of transition functions, which encode the logic that 440 changes the agents memory, and communicates with other agents through the use of messages sent to (using output port) and received from (using input port) the centralized communication matrix. for those familiar with uml, an abm developed using x-machines can be specified (from a system behavioural perspective) as a set of connected state transition diagrams. for those comfortable with integrated development environments (to write code), the command line terminal (to run simulations and submit batch jobs to hpc architecture), and the use of shell scripts (to submit jobs to a server, link to scripts for post-processing of output files, and link to analysis scripts [such as r or matlab] to generate descriptive statistics and graphs), the flame simulation framework is an intuitive and very friendly tool for developing agent-based models using xml and c. unfortunately, the converse of this holds for the novice modeller, and we conjecture that a more user friendly agent-based modelling framework that uses a graphical user 455 interface, such as netlogo, would be suitable as a first step to developing competence in model development and simulation-based experimentation. flame provides a simulation engine that parses the abm specification files (xml agent definition files and c functions files), manages the execution of simulations (on either a single node or over parallel architecture), 460 and manages potential interactions between individual x-machine agents. within flame simulation runs, the notion of time is modelled as discrete time-steps. each time-step therefore involves the individual x-machines to iterate through their internal computational states, which may result in updates to their real-world social states following interactions with either the 465 environment or other x-machine agents. furthermore, for those familiar with object-oriented design and development, flame, being underpinned by the concept of communicating stream x-machines, allows the various functions within the abm to be constructed in a modular fashion. consequently, flame ensures that each type of x-machine agent can be designed in an 470 object-oriented way, which allows their construction and modification to be performed without the risk of affecting the functionality of other agent types as long as a standard interface is used for communication and interactions between agents. the underlying process related to the technical architecture of flame 475 is the requirement for synchronization, through a simulation-level time-step after all agents within the simulation run have completed one internal computational transition function. the effect of this technical processing constraint, is that the end and start of computational transition functions, incorporate the ability to synchronize communication and internal computational state 480 transitions. with this in mind, care is required to ensure that agent behaviours do not contain any loops, which would incur the risk of undecideability problems, and that the interactions between agents (through use of the centralized message board) does not result in causal loops, which could impact upon the step-by-step updating of the agent internal states. flame simulation framework that "when communicating x-machines are used to represent agents in an [abm], communication is [often] restricted to interactions with neighbouring agents that are [located] close to one another" [20] . within our social system model, there are two broad categories of 490 messages used within the simulation runs to communicate an x-machine agents' current location and their potential to initiate or be part of a social interaction. the location message is sent from individual x-machines to the communication matrix to broadcast their current location so that other x-machine agents can calculate whether they are within the appropriate spatial 495 range for initiating an interaction, or alternatively to determine whether they are connected within the social network. with specific reference to the latter, the agents will elucidate whether they are connected (as defined in the adjacency matrix), and once [a] suitable agent(s) is/are identified, messaging to the centralized communication matrix would then be used to 500 initiate interactions between the relevant agents. finally, one point to be aware of, is that although development of an abm is one of the principal essential activities, in isolation, it will not enable simulation-based experimentation. in order to run simulations and analyze the resultant data, a number of additional computational tools need to be de-505 veloped (termed instruments). for our research, we developed the following instrumentation tools alongside the development of the abm itself: unix shell (specifically, bash) and ruby scripts to facilitate a semi-automated submission of simulation runs to the hpc resources; python scripts to facilitate a semi-automated mechanism to generate the initial starting parameters 510 files (using xml templates) for initiating simulation runs; scripts for the processing and transformation of xml output files to csv files (python and matlab scripts); scripts to automatically generate graphs (in matlab and r) for analyzing the data; a visualization tool to provide a graphical and animated view of the simulation run's system dynamics over time (separate 515 package provided by the flame development team, that can be configured to the abm); and various statistical analysis scripts (developed in matlab and python) to analyze the simulation output data for statistical significance using the kolmogorov-smirnov test [43] , and effect magnitude using the a-test [44] . these instrumentation tools (apart from the flame visualizer) 520 were developed using the appropriate scripting/programming language, so in order to ensure that abms developed in flame can be robustly tested and analyzed, the developer requires a working knowledge of various statistical techniques along with competence in various scripting/programming languages. with that in mind, we do not believe that flame is appropriate 525 for the novice modeller or subject matter expert. with flame being designed and developed from the outset to utilize parallel processing hardware architectures, the notion of a global mutable parameter unfortunately does not exist within the simulation framework. this is because such functionality would introduce issues around concurrency control and potentially lead to dead-locking. for instance, an individual compute node within the hpc architecture may be processing the simulation data for a particular x-machine agent that is dependent on the current value of a global parameter, but the global parameter is currently 535 being processed by another compute node. to mitigate risks around using outdated parameter values, the compute nodes would be required to wait until they confirmed that the global parameter was not being processed. when amplified up to the level of the overall simulation run, the cumulative waiting would incur a significant overhead regarding the wall-clock time 540 of simulation runs, which would significantly offset the benefits of parallel processing. consequently, we were unable to utilize a global counter to keep track of system-level quantities or to set system-level chracteristics, such as a pseudo-random number generator seed value. pseudo-random number generators (prngs) allow us to introduce probabilistic behaviour into our computational models, such as the interactions between x-machine agents, or between the agents and the system environment. during the calibration exercise, and later more formally during the verification process, we ensure that the computational model is not over-550 tuned through running multiple replicate simulations that utilize different prng seed values and performing statistical analysis to ascertain the variance in simulation output data. the principle behind explicitly setting the seed value for a prng is that you set once, and use multiple times [45] . a significant constraint that we discovered with flame is that it does not in-555 clude a mechanism for you to do this very easily, because mutable parameter values can only be defined and set within the definition of an agents' logic (the c functions file). as discussed in the previous paragraph, the design decisions taken when flame was first developed means there is no opportunity to set a global constant within the simulation environment setup of a 560 figure 5 : the levels within a simulation run at which the prng seed value can be set when using flame. although the principle of using prng seed values is that you set once per simulation and use multiple times, flame's explicit exclusion of global mutable parameters means that this is not straightforward. due to flame requiring all functionality to be written at the level of agents, this provides us with the ability to experiment to see whether any of the levels allow us to develop a technical workaround, for instance through setting at the level of agent-type, where any function would be called once per agent-type per iteration, or at the level of individual agents, where any function would be called once for each agent and for each iteration. simulation run due to the inefficiencies involved with it propagating across the multiple nodes within the hpc architecture. with that in mind, not only are global variables, such as total counts, unable to be updated, but the prng seed value cannot be set at the global level. this introduces the constraint of either not being able to set your own prng seed value, and 565 therefore being forced to use the system clock to derive the seed value, or to develop a technical workaround where the prng seed value is explicitly set within an individual agent's definition and logic (see figure 5) . when setting the prng seed value at the level of agent-type, you unfortunately encounter the issue of the seed value being reset during each 570 simulation time-step, and thus do not gain the full benefit of using a prng to simulate stochastic behaviours within the computaional model. through explicitly setting the prng seed value a list of random numbers is generated, albeit in a determinstic manner so that you can reproduce simulation runs by using the same seed value (hence the use of the prefix pseudo), to be used 575 within probabilistic functions [46] . the resetting of the prng seed with the same value and at the level of agent-type, results in the same deterministic list of pseudo-random numbers being generated as per the previous simulation time-step, which reduces the benefits of using a prng. this can be succinctly illustrated within our case study: if you set the seed value at the 580 level of an individual agent within our abm that contains 159 agents (e.g., separate programme team members) over a 2,000 time-step simulation, you in effect repeat the resetting of the seed value 318,000 times. likewise, if you set the seed value at the level of agent-type, you in effect repeat the resetting of the seed value 2,000 times (assuming a single high-level agent type of team member and 2,000 time-step simulation run). although the overall effects at this level are orders of magnitude smaller (e.g., far fewer resets of the prng seed value), it still significantly affects our ability to incorporate stochasticity into the abm and associated simulation runs. one approach for incorporating stochasticity into abms developed using 590 flame, and therefore gaining variance between replicate simulations is to run simulations using the built-in production mode within flame, which derives the seed value from the system clock. unfortunately, this approach does not enable exact reproduction of individual simulation runs because the system clock is continuously updating with the progression of time, which 595 seriously impacts our ability to repeat simulation-based experiments that have interesting dynamics, or to help resolve issues during the debugging activities in model development. fortunately, a technical workaround was identified that resolved this issue, which involved the creation of a dummy agent whose sole purpose is to set the prng seed value in the first iteration 600 of an individual simulation run. this utilized an agent-level counter (to count the simulation time-step), and logic to only set the prng seed value when the counter equals zero. in addition, and to keep the simulator tidy of computational artefacts, the logic also ensures that this dummy agent is removed from the simulation once the simulation time-step counter reaches 605 a pre-defined number. explicitly set memory allocation additional constraints, although minor in relation to the above, are that a single simulation time-step is taken as a standalone run of a simulation, and 610 that memory allocation for the agents and messages requires a continuous block size of memory. with respect to the single simulation time-step, this means that upon completion of all functions in that time-step, the global message board is emptied of all messages generated by agents during that time-step. simulation modellers therefore have to take this constraint into 615 account when designing and developing the abm, because messages cannot be sent between time-steps, so pertinent information (e.g., temporary parameter values or communication from specific neighbours) will need to be stored within the agent's memory (i.e., within an agent attribute). conversely, with respect to the block size, this is important for parallelization 620 when using mpi, because the simulator needs to know how to package up data that is sent across nodes, so the need to explicitly define the size of the agent memory and messages (both in bytes) is crucial. during the calibration process, initial simulations were run using a desktop 625 pc that had quad-core processor, 8gb ram and used the windows operating system. this meant that three separate simulation runs could comfortably be performed simultaneously in distributed mode across three out of the four cores in the processor. we found the performance of flame to be very promising during initial evaluation when running a single simulation 630 on a single compute node across multiple hardware platforms. both cpu time and wall-clock time were found to be linear following increases in the number of agents within a simulation, and also linear when the simulation length increased up to 50,000 time-steps (the maximum needed in our simulation), which both indicate that flame scales very well. however, further 635 investigation identified that the rate-limiting processes and tasks associated with simulation runs was the input/output ([i/o], e.g., read and write) speed for writing and reading the large number of xml files that are created as part of the simulation output. the cause for this relates to the underlying design principles of flame, with its conceptual architecture being based 640 on communicating stream x-machines, which require the generation of individual xml files for each simulation time-step (these xml files contain parameter values and states for every x-machine agent that is instantiated). due to the output xml file for a specific simulation time-step, becoming the input xml file for the next simulation time-step, a performance bottleneck 645 is encountered with respect to the speed of reading from and writing to, the storage disk. for example, our abm contained 159 separate agents that corresponded to the individual team members in the case study, and resulted in each xml output file being approximately 50kb in size. a 50,000 iteration simulation 650 run, would therefore generate 50,000 individual simulation time-step output files, that contain the parameter values and states associated with each of the 159 agents at the respective simulation time-step, which in our case approximated to 2.5gb of output data per simulation run. furthermore, following aleatory uncertainty analysis, we discovered that 75 replicates of each 655 simulation run (using different prng seed values) are required to stabilize the median averages of system dynamics [47] , which results in approximately 190gb of simulation output being generated for each set of simulation runs. as such, complex abms that incorporate a large number of agents, can quickly generate significant volumes of simulation output data, which could 660 significantly impact the ability to perform simulation-based experimentation if large capacity storage is not available on the computing hardware. our relatively simple abm took approximately 25min to run on the windows pc, along with an extra 10min to process and transform the xml simulation output files (using python scripts) to csv files, and then subsequently 665 transforming these into a single csv file that contained the median average dynamics of each agent over the duration of the simulation. through using a pipeline of scripts in this way, we were able to ensure that the large volume of output data spent the minimum of time on the storage facility. to confirm i/o rate-limiting characteristics of flame, we performed an 670 identical set of simulation runs using the same windows pc, but for this experiment, the output files were written to an external usb hard drive. we found the overall wall-clock time increased due to the flow of data across the usb port being slower than that to the onboard hard disk. we built upon these initial findings through using another desktop setup, which this time 675 encompassed an apple mac mini with 8gb ram and solid state disk (ssd), along with a high-performance computing facility run by the northern eight universities consortium (n8) (based within the north of england). the mac mini with ssd was 28% faster (with respect to wall-clock time) than the windows pc with internal disk, and 38% faster than that setup when using 680 an external usb hard drive, resulting in the overall wall-clock time of a 50,000 time-step simulation run being reduced down to 18min. likewise, the n8 hpc was 85% faster than the setup using mac mini with ssd, bringing the wall-clock time for simulation runs down to just under 3min (see figure 6 ). access to fast storage (of suitable large capacity) is therefore crucial for any moderately complicated abm that requires replicate simulations to be run in order to account for the aleatory uncertainty within the model. an additional observation on performance relates to the communication figure 6 : the performance of flame was found to be linear with respect to the number of iterations within a simulation run and the wall clock time. flame was found to be input-output rate-limiting by running a simulation on various hardware setups. for instance, we ran the simulation on: a windows pc with internal hdd and on an external hdd, a mac mini with ssd, and a high-performance cluster with dedicated fast lustre storage. between agents over parallel architectures, and the resultant sequence of messages being sent and read. such communication dependencies between agents 690 requires a synchronization block between the cores (on a laptop/desktop) or nodes (on a hpc) to ensure that messages arrive in time to meet the dependency, i.e., functions being performed in the specific time-step of the simulation do not try to read a message before the node/core has received it from another node/core. these synchronization blocks are a consider-695 able time bottle neck, which introduce performance losses into simulations. as such, the fewer synchronization blocks introduced into a simulation, the greater the performance of the overall simulation run. real-world social systems are complex, with sets of behaviours, charac-700 teristics and dynamics that emerge through the individual relationships that function through time and space. one of the major benefits of the agentbased modelling paradigm, is the emphasis on three principal characteristics of complex systems: 1) system structures, 2) system dynamics, and 3) system control [3] . one of the advantages of the agent-based approach is that the 705 simulations aim to replicate the dynamics of the real-world system, in order to ensure the validity of the underlying assumptions behind the computational model can be tested. however, in order for these abms to be successful in performing their role as scientific instruments that act as credible abstractions of complex social systems, it is crucial that the preferred modelling 710 and simulation framework is able: to realistically represent system structure and dynamics; is modular, so that the abm can be incrementally updated with new functionality, without the need to re-engineer the entire model; can expand with reference to the hierarchical-scale of the real-world system, e.g., individual team members, to discrete project teams, to the programme-wide 715 network as a whole; and is amenable to a thorough validation and verification process, including stringent statistical analysis of simulation output data. within this study, we used flame to develop an abm that was calibrated to the quantitative and qualitative data from our case study around the development and propagation of conflict within multi-partner enterprise 720 system implementations. as discussed above, the flame modelling and simulation framework utilizes the conceptual and technical architectures associated with communicating stream x-machines to facilitate agent-based models in a discrete-event manner (the simulation time-steps are the discrete events). it has been reported to provide very significant improvements 725 in performance over more traditional abm frameworks [48] . flame's overarching purpose is to deal with massive simulations, allowing for modelling abstraction levels that cater for large scope with respect to the real-world system of interest, and hundreds of thousands, to millions, of x-machine agents. through being designed and developed to comply with the mpi 730 communication framework, flame code is also deployable on to parallel hardware platforms. our study has identified a number of strengths and weaknesses for using flame to model complex social systems. firstly, with respect to the strengths, and for modellers who are familiar with the object-oriented approach to design of computational models, we have identified that flame is an intuitive framework for designing abms of complex social systems due to its template-driven approach. similarly, for modellers who are comfortable with command line terminal, basic programming languages, and shell scripts, we have identified that flame is an intuitive framework for de-740 veloping abms of complex social systems. conversely, we have shown that flame suffers with a number of constraints that introduced technical issues into the development process for our abm. the four major constraints were: the lack of built-in functionality to set the prng seed value at the simulation level; the inability to utilize functionality associated with global 745 mutable parameters; the inability to communicate between simulation timesteps/iterations; and the lack of instrumentation to analyze simulation output data, thus requiring the development of various statistical and data transformation scripts, which is fine for experienced modellers, but is a real constraint for novice modellers or subject matter experts. these constraints are unfortunately a direct consequence of the design decisions taken during the initial creation of flame, because the underlying premise was that it would harness the power of parallel processing to run individual simulations across hpc architectures. a number of technical challenges were introduced by these constraints, but fortunately, we were able 755 to develop workarounds to resolve them. as such, we want to inform future users of the flame simulation framework that they need to be cognizant of these constraints, especially due to the fact that it has been proposed as suitable for subject matter experts within the real-world domain of interest, who may have limited experience and/or competence in computational mod-760 elling or programming. with this in mind, we advocate that this message be moderated, because subject matter experts may not have the technical competence or modelling experience to fully investigate, analyze, diagnose and resolve the full variety of problems and constraints that we have experienced during this study. 765 furthermore, and of more significance is that we discovered a major limitation when using flame, is that models that incorporate large numbers of individual agents are computationally expensive with respect to wall-clock time, the i/o load, the need for hpc architecture to run multiple replications in distributed mode, and the consequent very large size of output simulation 770 data. this computational expense is compounded when the abm is increased in scale to reproduce results consistent with system-level dynamics from the real-world domain. due to flame's communicating stream x-machine architecture, which relies on input and output streams of messages to facilitate communication, we unexpectedly discovered that comparatively small simu-775 lations (with respect to total x-machine agent numbers, the complexity of interaction logic, and the total time-steps within the simulation) could gen-erate a considerable number of xml data files, which directly correlates to the volume of simulation output data produced. the wall-clock time for single simulation runs was found during diagnostic tests, to grow linearly in 780 accordance with the number of time-steps within simulation runs. diagnostic tests also indicated the input-output rate-limited nature of flame (as opposed to being rate-limited through the central processing unit), which is due to separate xml output files being generated for each time-step within simulation runs. to put this into further context, the communicating stream x-machine nature of flame requires that individual xml output files are generated at the end of each time-step to record the parameter values for internal computational and simulated real-world states along with internal memory values for each x-machine agent; these are then used as the xml input file at the 790 beginning of the next time-step to set the corresponding starting parameter values, states, and memory values for the next time-step of the simulation run. a bottleneck is therefore experienced regarding computational performance, which results from the speed of reading from and writing to, the onboard or peripheral storage disk. the results from aleatory uncertainty analysis further compounded this performance issue by identifying that a minimum of 75 simulation replicates were required to achieve stable median dynamics, which resulted in approximately 3,750,000 total xml output files, which as disucssed, amounts to 190gb for our relatively small abm. there can often exist a delicate balance with respect to computational 800 efficiency and performance during aleatory uncertainty analysis, which is introduced from the desire to achieve stable simulation results by using a high number of replicates for calculating the median average simulation results, whilst being cognizant of the computational resources required (e.g., wall-clock time, number of cpu cores on desktop or nodes on hpc, and access to 805 fast storage disk). the number of simulation replicates chosen to calculate the median average dynamics is therefore usually a compromise between minimizing the impact of aleatory uncertainty versus the acceptable costs in computational resources for the project. our findings therefore indicate that average, everyday desktop computing resources (such as a windows pc or 810 apple mac mini) are unsuitable for running simulations that require large numbers of replicates to achieve stable average dynamics to act as a baseline for simulation-based experimentation. we therefore conjecture that access to very fast multi-core desktops with significant storage capacity (such as fast ssd raid capabilities), or to hpc architecture is critical for ensuring that our abm of conflict development and propagation within a complex social network can be used for simulation-based experimentation. the above discussion has focused on our contributions to the computational modelling community through out user experiences when using flame 820 to model a complex dynamical social system. specifically, the discussion has focused on the strengths and weaknesses that we identified when using flame to model the development and propagation of conflict within the social network of large multi-partner enterprise system implementations. we found the design of our model to be straightforward due to flame's un-825 derlying architecture using communicating stream x-machines. the objectoriented nature of communicating stream x-machines, which are in effect, computational instantiations of uml state transition diagrams, makes the design and subsequent development relatively intuitive. in addition, the use of xml to define agents and c to code the agent communication and in-830 teraction rules, allows for a truly modular approach to abm development. conversely, however, the limitations of flame are also due to the underlying conceptual and technical architecture of flame. we discovered four main constraints relating to the lack of in-built functionality to set prng seed values, the inability to use global mutable parameters, the inability to 835 communicate between time-steps, and the lack of instrumentation to analyze simulation output data. in addition, we identified a significant limitation with respect to performance, which is a direct consequence of the communicating stream x-machine architecture, in that the output file for a simulation time-step acts as the input file for the subsequent time-step. our analysis 840 indicated that this not only leads flame to be i/o rate-limiting, but also means that large simulations (with respect to either total number of agents or total number of simulation time-steps) quickly generate prohibitively large amounts of simulation output data. we were lucky that our abm of the case study is relatively simple and had only 159 agents within the social network, 845 but even still, following aleatory uncertainty analysis we were required to run 75 replicates of simulations in order to mitigate the effects of aleatory uncertainty, and produced 190gb. as such, we conjecture that for large, complex, abms, the large volumes of simulation output data generated by flame may mean that it is rejected as a potential simulation framework if access to 850 very large capacity and high-speed storage capabilities cannot be achieved. to conclude, we believe flame is an excellent choice for experienced modellers, who will be able to fully harness the capabilities that it has to offer, and also be competent in diagnosing and solving any limitations that are encountered. conversely, because flame requires considerable develop-855 ment of instrumentation tools, along with development of statistical analysis scripts, we believe that it is not suitable for the novice modeller, who may be better suited to using a graphical user interface driven framework until their experience with modelling and competence in programming increases. in our opinion, flame's major strength is its flexibility, in that once the model 860 definition (along with any technical workarounds) has been developed using the xml and c templates (e.g., the social network topology, communication rules, rules for conflict development, and functionality to explicitly set the prng seed value), the augmentation of the abm with new functionality is comparatively easy due to the template-driven nature of flame facilitat-865 ing its modular approach to design and development. in addition, we have found flame to be excellent for quickly developing abms of complex dynamical systems in both our case study presented here, and indeed in previous work into complex dynamical biological systems [21] . we do however believe that it requires significant computational modelling skills in order to develop 870 workarounds to some of the constraints that have been imposed due to the underlying technical architecture, and to develop a pipeline of scripts (e.g., ruby, unix shell, ms dos, and python) to semi-automate the submission of jobs to a hpc and to transform and analyze simulation output data to reduce the storage load when large numbers of replicate simulations are required to 875 account for the aleatory uncertainty within the model. finally, we are aware that a version of flame has been developed that harnesses the parallel processing power of graphics processing units (gpu) [49] , which has recently been extended [50]), and could prove beneficial, because a number of the limitations that we discovered (e.g., no global mutable parameter and the i/o 880 resource intensiveness) may be resolved through the difference in processing architecture. one final point to highlight on this however, is that flame gpu, being based on cuda, requires nvidia graphics cards, which could prove problematic for those developers who are using apple mac computers because of the current issues with drivers and mac mojave/catalina operab-885 ility, and the need to use egpu and various scripts to get the thunderbolt connectivity working with older macs -we are aware that newer macs have thunderbolt 3 connectivity and that mac os high sierra supports nvidia drivers. to this end, we are in the process of trialling flame gpu on such a setup. distributed mason: a scalable distributed multi-agent simulation environment a new approach to decoding life: systems biology lessons learned on development and application of 910 agent-based models of complex dynamical systems distributed simulation optimization and paramter exploration framework for the cloud agent-based computational models and generative social science engineering simulations as scientific instruments: a pattern language tutorial on agent-based modeling and simulation on agent-based software engineering agent-based modelling: methods and techniques for simulating human systems using the cos-mos approach to study 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behaviours in complex systems on gpus key: cord-330503-w1m1ci4i authors: yamin, mohammad title: it applications in healthcare management: a survey date: 2018-05-31 journal: int j inf technol doi: 10.1007/s41870-018-0203-3 sha: doc_id: 330503 cord_uid: w1m1ci4i healthcare management is currently undergoing substantial changes, and reshaping our perception of the medical field. one spectrum is that of the considerable changes that we see in surgical machines and equipment, and the way the procedures are performed. computing power, internet and associated technologies are transforming surgical operations into model based procedures. the other spectrum is the management side of healthcare, which is equally critical to the medical profession. in particular, recent advances in the field of information technology (it) is assisting in better management of health appointments and record management. with the proliferation of it and management, data is now playing a vital role in diagnostics, drug administration and management of healthcare services. with the advancement in data processing, large amounts of medical data collected by medical centres and providers, can now be mined and analysed to assist in planning and making appropriate decisions. in this article, we shall provide an overview of the role of it that have been reshaping the healthcare management, hospital, health profession and industry. internet and web 2.0 have been instrumental in evolving most of the information technology (it) applications that we are now accustomed to. barely 20 years ago, we had not imagined the technological advancements, which are now implemented into our lives. technological advancement, riding on the wave of disruptive technologies of the last quarter of a century, is reshaping and redefining the world's social order and norms. the medical field is part and parcel of our lives and is perhaps one that we care the most about. in the recent times, this field has undergone vast changes. the medical profession today has evolved greatly since the beginning of this century. not only the medical procedures, the medical data flow and management has also undergone considerable improvement. advance data transfer and management techniques have made improvements in disease diagnostic and have been a critical role in national health planning and efficient record keeping. in particular, the medical profession has undergone substantial changes through the capabilities of database management, which has given rise to the healthcare information systems (his). medical data collected from different institutions can now be mined and analysed in time using big data analytics tools. this article shall provide an overview of the involvement, importance and benefits of it and how data management is contributing to the medical science field. in particular, the following will be discussed: 5. patient and data management 6. big medical data analytics 7. privacy and security of healthcare data 2 artificial intelligence and robotics in healthcare artificial intelligence (ai) is a field of computer science which has its roots in logic (mathematics), psychology, philosophy, linguistics, arts, science and management among others. many ai-dominant tools and applications can be found in games, auto spare parts, heavy machinery and various medical instrumentations. according to [1] , many programs are developed with the help of ai to perform specific tasks which make use of many activities including medical diagnostic, time sharing, interactive interpreters, graphical user interfaces and the computer mouse, rapid development environments, the linked listdata structure, automatic storage management, symbolic, functional, dynamic, and object-oriented programming. here are some other examples. pharmaceutical developments involve extensive clinical trials in real environment and may take many years, sometimes more than a decade. this process requires a considerable amount of resources and can cost billions of dollars. in order to save lives and money, it is desirable to expedite this time consuming process to make healthcare cheaper. an urgency of this nature was witnessed during the ebola crisis in some west african nations [2] . an urgency of this nature was witnessed during the ebola crisis in some west african nations [2] , where a program powered by ai was used to scan existing medicines that could be redesigned to fight the disease. nowadays medical consultation, with the help of an online illness database, can take place without the direct interaction of a medical practitioner. an example of such a practice can be found in [2] . advantages of such consultations lies in the fact that the symptoms presented online by the patients are matched with those of about ten thousand known diseases [3] , whereas doctors can only match the symptoms against a fraction of the known diseases which they are familiar without the intervention of an it database. likewise virtual nursing to support patients online is also available from [4] . yet another app [5] developed by boston children hospital provides basic health information and advice for parents of ill children. since the introduction in 1960s, robots have been used in many scientific and social fields. their use in fields like nuclear arsenal, production of automobiles, and manipulations in space has been widespread. in comparison, the medical science field has somewhat been gradual to take advantage of this technology. nevertheless, robots are now days being utilised to assist in or perform many complex medical procedures, which has given rise to the term robotic surgery. a comprehensive discussion of robotic surgery is available in [6] . indeed there are many advantages of using robots in healthcare management. for example, developing pharmaceuticals through clinical trials can take many years and cost may rise to billions of dollars. making this process faster and more affordable could change the world. robots can play a critical role in such trials. robots are also very effective in medico training where simulations are achieved. use of robots in abdominal surgery [7] is innovative in comparison to the conventional laparoscopy procedures, and has the potential to eliminate the existing shortcomings and drawbacks. according to [8] , the most promising procedures are those in which the robot enables a laparoscopic approach where open surgery is usually required. likewise robotic surgery for gynaecology related ailments [9] can also be very effective. the conventional laparoscopy, the surgeon would have limited degree of freedom with a 2d vision, whereas the robotic system would provide a 3d view with intuitive motion and enable additional degrees of freedom. prostatic surgery, being complex in the way of the degree of freedom, is another area where robots are very effective [10] . nosocomial infections pose a major problem hospitals and clinics around the world. this becomes worst in case of large and intense gatherings of people like in hajj [11] . to keep the environment free of these viruses and bacteria, the environments needs to be cleaned efficiently and regularly. however some viruses like ebola [2] and mers coronavirus [12] are highly contagious and cannot be cleaned by humans without having protective gear, which can be costly and may or may not be effective. cleaning the hospital with chlorine is an effective way. however, there are many drawbacks of this method including a high risk for cleaners to be infected themselves. a sophisticated approach was implemented in us hospitals by using robots [13] to purify the space. however, some of the robots used are not motorized and may require a human to place them in the infected room or area, posing the risk of infection to humans. it is not known as to which substance or matter can effectively eliminate deadly viruses like ebola and mers coronavirus. however, according to [14] , beta-coronaviruses, which is one of the four strands of mers coronavirus, can be effectively eliminated by uv light. for such a deadly and highly contagious virus clearing, a robot that can be remote controlled is needed, which can move forward, backward and sideways, and is able to clean itself. concept and related technology of virtual reality (vr), augmented reality (ar) and mixed reality (mr), which originate from image processing and make extensive use of ai, have been in use for decades in games and movies. for some time now, the vr, ar and mr tools and technology are assisting the medical field in a significant way. virtual reality has been used in robotic surgery to develop simulators to train surgeons in a stress free environment using realistic models and surgical simulation, without adversely affecting operating time or patient safety [15] . an account of ar and vr technologies, including the advantages and disadvantages can be found in [16] . the ar and vr technology can be very useful in medical and healthcare education, an account of which can be found in [17] . applications of vr, ar and mr can also be very helpful in urology [18] . healthcare management information systems (hmis) is the generic name for many kinds of information systems used in healthcare industry. the use of hmis is widespread in various units of hospitals, clinics, and insurance companies. a doctor records patient data (habits, complaints, prescriptions, vital signs, etc.) in one such system they use. a number of hospital/clinic units like radiology, pathology, and pharmacy store patient data in these systems for later retrieval and usage by different stakeholders as shown in fig. 1 . appointment system itself can also be part of a hmis or a standalone system. modern healthcare without hmis cannot be comprehended. an information system or electronic system dealing includes a database system, sometimes known as the backend of the main system. a database is a collection of data, tailored to the information needs of an organisation for a specific purpose. it can grow bigger or shrink to a smaller size depending on the needs of different times. a database in itself would be of no use unless it was coupled with a software system known as the database management system (dbms), which facilitates various functions and processes like data entry and storage, retrieval, and update, data redundancy, data sharing, data consistency, data integrity, concurrency, and data privacy & security. more information about database systems can be found in [19] . data in an information system can be organised in several different ways. classical representation of data [20] is tabular. most tables can be regarded as mathematical relations, for this reason, a dbms with tabular data organisation is known as relational. relational databases have by far been dominant in the business organisations until recently. in the eighties and nineties of the last century, object-oriented and semantic data models were also introduced. in particular, object-oriented databases [20] became very popular for managing audio-visual data. semantic database technology [21] , although very efficient for search queries, did not reach its expected peak, perhaps because of its complex data model dealing with ontologies. a comparative study of relational, object oriented and semantic database systems is carried out in [21] . although the evolution of information technologies began much earlier, however, its implementation by businesses and corporations occurred in the second half of the last century. the healthcare industry a bit slow to take the advantage of the technology. earlier, medical records and systems were paper based. thus the first phase of the usage of information technology and systems in hospital and healthcare management was to transform paper based records to database systems. not only did it change paper based systems to electronic ones but also allowed data manipulation. as a result, more data could be processed in a very short time, which was critical in making timely decisions. a discussion of early stages of this transformation can be found in [22] . consolidation of this technology resulted in healthcare management information systems (hmis). timely decision is critical in all walks of life but it assumes a much greater urgency in some healthcare cases. hmis is capable to transferring data from one location or application to another within split of a second, as opposed to days without the help of electronic systems. this allows users to access, use and manipulate data instantly and concurrently. as the technology continues to evolve and refine, the performance of information systems operations, in particular those of hmis, is bound to improve. ubiquitous health system is meant to provide healthcare services remotely. according to [23] , ubiquitous healthcare system means the environment that users can receive the medical treatment regardless of the location and time. essentially, a ubiquitous healthcare system would monitor daily or periodic activities of patients and alert the patients or health workers of problems, if any. a discussion of national healthcare systems in korea, including the concept of u-hospitals, is discussed in [24] . a rich picture of a ubiquitous healthcare system is shown in fig. 2. internet of things (iot) is an emerging technology. data in organisations, including hospitals, clinics, and insurance companies, is increasing every day. to process this large data, advanced data processing techniques are combined into what is now known as the big data analytics. internet of things (iot) is a general paradigm. when dealing with medical environment, it is known as internet of medical of things (iomt), which is same as the medical internet of things. a discussion of iomt can be found in [25] . the fundamental objective of iot is to provide ubiquitous access to numerous devices and machines on service providers (sps) [26] , covering many areas such as location based services (lbs), smart home, smart city, e-health [27, 28] . these tools, devices and machines cover service providers in many areas of location based services. a few other could be smart home, street or city, elements of ubiquitous health systems, tools for electronic learning and electronic business, the number which is increasing day by day and it may reach fifty billions in 2020 [29, 30] . we have conceptualised this in fig. 3 . the iot applications invariably use cloud storage coupled with fog computing [31] . data in organisations is growing at a rapid rate. some organisations have collected huge pile from their operations. organisational data needs to be mined and analysed on a regular basis to uncover hidden patterns, unknown correlations, market trends, customers, patients and treatment records to help organizations to plan and make more informed decisions. mining and analysis of big data captures the immense wealth of intelligence hidden in organisational data, makes information transparent and usable at much higher frequency, and enhance performance. all of these contribute to providing higher value in efficient decision making. when data grows, it cannot be handled manually, often big data organisations use robotic arm to perform data loading and unloading operations. medical data is also growing at a rapid rate in many hospitals, clinics and insurance companies. mining and analysis of healthcare data is even more critical as it relates to the wellbeing of the society. data centric research is highly desirable to find answers to questions on many chronical diseases, and to plan and manage national and international health programs. potential befits of big data analytics in healthcare are discussed in [32] . in particular, authors have provided five strategies for success with big data. these are (1) implementing big data governance, (2) developing an information sharing culture, (3) training key personnel to use big data analytics, (4) incorporating cloud computing into the organization's big data analytics, and (5) generating new business ideas from big data analytics. a survey of big data analytics in healthcare and government is conducted in [33] , where the need for the analytics is linked to the provision and improvement of patient centric services, detection of diseases before they spread, monitoring the quality of services in hospitals, improving methods of treatment, and provision of quality medical education. authors in [34] identify medical signals as a major source of big data, discuss analytical techniques of such data. some of the well known tools used for big data analytics are apache tm hadoop ã� is highly scalable storage platform. it provides cost-effective storage solution for large data volumes. it doesn't require any particular format. apache spark is an open source, in-memory processing machine. its performance is much faster than that of hadoop. mapreduce is used for iterative algorithms or interactive data mining. there are many other big data analytics tools, a list of them can be found at http://bigdata-madesimple.com/top-30-big-data-tools-data-analysis/. there are always security and privacy concerns associated with data. protection of privacy and security is a responsibility of data holding organisations. with medical data these concerns assumes higher pronounce and priority. medical data can be very sensitive, and may be linked to life and death of the patients. often socio political issues are linked with medical data. it is well known that india was divided into two countries giving rise to pakistan in 1947. mohammad ali jinnah, very clever and shrewd, was the leader of pakistan campaign, larry collins and dominique lapierre [35] argue that the partition of india could have been avoided if ''the most closely guarded secret in india'' had become known. jinnah was suffering from tuberculosis which was slowly but surely killing him. in [28, 36, 37] , privacy issues of data are discussed. healthcare procedures and management are now greatly relying on it applications, which are providing realtime access to data and utilities. without these applications, healthcare will be limited, compromised and prone to major problems. many of the medical equipments, which are used in procedures, are highly dependent on technology. ai, robots, vr, ar, mr, iomt, ubiquitous medical services, and big data analytics are all directly or indirectly related to it. hmis is critical for efficient management of records, appointment systems, diagnostics and their needs of medical centres. as the technology advances, the healthcare is likely to further improve. artificial intelligence: a modern approach perspectives on west africa ebola virus disease outbreak intelligent machines, the artificially intelligent doctor will hear you now meet molly-the virtual nurse boston children's hospital launches cloud-based education on amazon alexa-enabled devices robotic surgery-a personal view of the past, present and future robotic abdominal surgery status of robotic assistance-a less traumatic and more accurate minimally invasive surgery? robotic surgery in gynaecology a randomised controlled trial of robotic vs. open radical prostatectomy: early outcomes health management in crowded events: hajj and kumbh. bvicam's middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (mers-cov) origin and animal reservoir the iowa disinfection cleaning project: opportunities, successes, and challenges of a structured intervention program in 56 hospitals inactivation of middle east respiratory syndrome-coronavirus in human plasma using amotosalen and ultraviolet a light impact of virtual reality simulators in training of robotic surgery augmented and virtual reality in surgery-the digital surgical environment: applications, limitations and legal pitfalls preliminary study of vr and ar applications in medical and healthcare education application of virtual, augmented, and mixed reality to urology database systems. a practical approach to design, implementation and management, 5th edn a relational model of data for large shared data banks semantic, relational and object oriented systems: a comparative study health care in the information society: a prognosis for the year 2013 unified ubiquitous healthcare system architecture with collaborative model national health information system in korea medical internet of things and big data in healthcare information analytics for healthcare service discovery intelligent human activity recognition scheme for e-health applications preserving privacy in internet of things-a survey internet of things: converging. technologies for smart environments and integrated ecosystems security of the internet of things: perspectives and challenges a survey on fog computing: properties, roles and challenges big data analytics: understanding its capabilities and potential benefits for healthcare organizations a survey of big data analytics in healthcare and government. 2nd international symposium on big data and cloud computing (isbcc'15) big data analytics in healthcare freedom at midnight: the epic drama of india's stuggle for independence improving privacy and security of user data in location based services big data security and privacy in healthcare: a review key: cord-024343-mrri46oh authors: buldakov, nikolay; khalilev, timur; distefano, salvatore; mazzara, manuel title: an open source solution for smart contract-based parking management date: 2020-05-05 journal: open source systems doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-47240-5_6 sha: doc_id: 24343 cord_uid: mrri46oh this paper discusses an open-source solution for smart-parking in highly urbanized areas. we have conducted interviews with domain experts, defined user stories and proposed a system architecture with a case study. our solution allows integration of independent owners of parking space into one unified system, that facilitates parking in a smart city. the adoption of such a system raises trust issues among the stakeholders involved in the management of the parking. in order to tackle such issues, we propose a smart contract-based solution encapsulating sensitive information, agreements and processes into transparent and distributed smart contracts . it has been estimated that, with the current trend, 60% of people will end up living in urban areas [24] . the increasing pace of the urbanization process made the management of city services more challenging among such services transportation has strategic importance since the increase of population leads to increased traffic congestion and pollution, which significantly impacts on the citizens' lives. several approaches have been adopted to address these issues, and in 1970s some countries decided to widen the roads and create new ones. for example, in hague, netherlands, many canals were drained and covered for this purpose [1] . more modern approaches focus on the factors affecting congestion and operate on them. this trend has led to smart management of streetlights [18] , and the introduction of payed parking lots and roundabouts. several studies have also shown that searching for a free parking stall drastically affects the traffic as vehicles spend some time going around looking for parking [12] . smart parking solutions can, therefore, significantly improve traffic conditions. there are several open issues and challenges on the current parking management. first of all, in every district, there are slots of unused land, owned either by private or public entities. providing easy means of renting out such properties for parking can simplify the process of creating new parking lots. moreover, collection and aggregation of information about the current occupancy of all parking lots can significantly simplify the process of finding a free stall, thus decreasing traffic congestion. another significant issue is the trustworthiness of a potential parking system. with the current solutions on the market, such as [27] sensitive information is stored in a centralised way, which makes it vulnerable and simplifies malicious intrusion. finally, various parking providers need aggregation under one universal system, that will guarantee the unbiased treatment of all parking lots. such strategy will allow potential seekers of parking lots to observe the entire situation in the city instead of seeing only partial information. this work aims at creating an open-source solution in order to tackle the aforementioned problems. every city has governing authorities: city hall, municipality and it can be divided up into districts with local councils. it can also be organized in terms of smart governance [25] . we will further refer to these authorities as an administrator. the administrator is responsible for authorising processes in the city. there are also people and companies possessing pieces of land that are suitable for parking. we refer to them as landlords. a landlord can be a juridical person or a natural person; it does not matter for the system. a landlord wants to provide their land for parking in order to profit from parking fees. besides, there are entities called tenants. a tenant is a company or a person who will to whom a landlord rents out a subset of their parking land-based on some conditions. now that all the roles are defined, one can observe the relations connection different roles in fig. 1 . in order to provide their land for parking, a landlord must first sign a contract with the administrator. there is always only one administrator for each area in the city. the process starting from a request to create such contract (from the landlord's side) up until its signing by both parties will be called landlord registration. this process involves checking whether the landlord is eligible for renting out their property, and negotiation on the details of the contract. eventually, the signed contract contains such details as the tax which the landlord guarantees to pay, information about the registered land, duration of the contract and others. both parties can further amend the contract, given that they are satisfied with the amendment. the landlord, in turn, can not only provide their land for parking but also they can rent it out to tenants. in this case, the income from parking will not go directly to the landlord, however, they receive guaranteed rent payments and, possibly, a percentage from each parking transaction. similarly, another contract preserved the agreement between a tenant and a landlord. this contract describes all the details of the rent. such details are the duration of the contract, the rent fee, the frequency of payments, the landlord's share in each parking transaction and, most importantly, the exact borders of the area rented to each tenant. again, all these details can be amended later, given the consensus of both parties. there is a set of preconditions, which this study assumes parking lots to hold. first of all, the parking areas have to be divided up into a set of spots. we refer to these spots as parking stalls. this partition can be represented by road marking. moreover, there has to be a tracking device which will make the parking lot fully observable. a particular example can be a camera with an iot-powered box, produced by park smart [2] as described in their patent [26] . this device has to run image processing algorithms in spot in order to tell at each moment which parking stalls are occupied (a particular implementation is provided in [5] ) and what the plate numbers of the parked cars are. a visualisation of these assumptions can be found in fig. 2 . a real example could be a mall with a big parking zone. stalls can be partitioned among the businesses that are present in the mall. big companies, like ikea could rent the closest stalls in order to ease transportation of goods from the store to cars. restaurants could want to offer reduced fares to their visitors for parking. there can also be stalls that are not rented by any company. in this case, a car parked there pays according to the pricing policy of the landlord, i.e. the mall. the proposed solution presented in this paper aims to tackle the problems described above by using blockchain smart contracts. it assumes a set of roles to be present is the city. one of them is a city hall, that will be responsible for the deployment of the system as well as setting several policies following the local legislation. another role is a landlord who possesses a piece of land. a landlord can be a juridical person or a natural person, it does not matter for the system as long as their land satisfies the constraints describer in the assumptions section. such situations are common: a landlord does not want to maintain the land fully themselves and rents its parts out, in this case the proposed system allows a landlord to partition their land as they desire and set complex paying policies, that will ensure the agreed-upon conditions at the time of payment for parking. the last role is a driver interested in parking their car. they can observe free spots available at every parking lot and the pricing policy and choose the most suitable one. payment is also covered conducted through the system, using a micro-payment channel, that makes it possible to enforce and guarantee the distribution of money among the landlords, the city hall and the tenants. by the time of writing, various smart parking systems exist in the literature, that focus on various aspects of parking. in principle, we can divide them into two groups: centralized solutions and decentralised solutions. there is a garden variety of solutions present both in the market and research, which attempt to prove a framework to manage smart parking. however, the major drawback of most of them is their centralised nature. many of them rely on a particular supreme entity, their "source of truth". in [17] a parking system is proposed that relies on iot devices and exchanges data by means of tcp/ip protocol. however, the application resides on only one server, that makes it vulnerable to issues with security, trustability and single point of failure. other works propose architectures that utilise the blockchain solutions as their backbone. all centralised solutions share a common set of problems that make them undesirable for practical use. the most important of such issues is trustworthiness. all participants of such systems have to rely on a particular entity, that will possess the power of accessing, chaining and removing their data, with no guarantee at the time of signing an agreement or registering that the owner of the system will obey to the promised rules. lack of transparency is another significant shortcoming. when the implementation is not exposed to the endusers, they cannot validate that a particular solution is guaranteed to function in accordance with their needs and that it does not have any back-doors. finally, considering the ongoing competition on any market, including parking, a centralised solution can be unfair to some participants if the owner is biased towards some companies. in [6] a system is proposed for incorporating blockchain into regular parking scenarios. this paper presents a layered architecture that standardizes the typical architecture of an integrated smart parking system. it also describes the major components of the system as well as provides an overview of possible work-flows of the solution. in this system, there are three major fig. 3 . overview of integrated smart parking system, taken from [6] participants: parking service provider, blockchain network, and user. the network enjoys the standard blockchain characteristics: a consensus algorithm, a shared public ledger, running a local copy of the ledger at each parking area. the overview schema of the system can be seen in fig. 3 . the architecture in the described solution consists of four layers: application layer, network layer, transaction layer, and physical layer. this layout of technologies can be considered the current state of the art and is adapted in the solution, proposed in this thesis work. finally, the authors of the paper describe two main workflows supported by their system: 1. search and request of a parking spot and 2. parking provider operations in the system. even though the paper describes a useful basic concept, it supports a minimal number of scenarios, and thus, one cannot consider it as realistic. another blockchain-powered system is presented in [15] . it aims to take into account the process of setting up the parking space for the land-owner. for this they a landlord has to go through government validated process and procedures such as land registry and government mandate external system. the external control is conducted by presenting another entity, named oracle. in addition to that, they tackle the problem of leasing lands to the so-called contractors by distributing non-fungible tokens among them for a particular period. these tokens are issued to the certified landlords by the government. the critical advantage of this solution is that it describes in great details peculiarities related to how governing authorities and lease of land can be integrated into a blockchain system. however, many processes are supposed to happen off-chain, which is a serious limitation for the true decentralisation of the system. [16] presents registration, search, rent, payment modules built by the means of the bcos smart contracts framework. the main novelty of this system is the use of one-time pad mechanism and a group-signature mechanism together with a union of privileged nodes in order to conceal the details of each transaction and thus preserve users' privacy while the privileged nodes can still access users' data. one-time padding means that instead of receiving a real address for each transaction, users, instead, receive a newly generated address each time. this way, the users' addresses are not exposed. a group signature mechanism allows signing a transaction on behalf of a group, which hides the mapping between transactions and users. other concepts implemented in this system are relatively similar to the works mentioned above, so the privacy mechanisms are the main beneficial feature of the paper. finally [11] introduces a gamification approach that simplifies the process of finding a parking lot. it encourages users to take part in the reporting process, by using the data history in order to calculate which places are more likely to be empty and by providing a framework that does not assume or require any particular installation of infrastructure. in this system, the concept of mobile crowdsensing plays a pivotal role. in order to ensure the involvement of drivers, the system assigns individual points to each driver for their collaboration. examples of such collaborations are the installation of a special beacon or reporting on the number of free parking spaces in the street. pedestrians can also participate by reporting through a mobile app. these points can be exchanged for free parking minutes. the authors claim their approach to bring a variety of benefits including a faster search for parking (leading to lower co2 emissions), easy deployment of the solution as it does not require much an existing infrastructure. although their reasoning is valid, there is almost no information in the paper how the blockchain technology was incorporated. although the works mentioned in this literature review present a variety of parking solutions, a significant limitation is in the fact that all of them lack flexibility for the end users. there is a variety of possible configurations of the system present, for example with a governing agency involved [15] or without [6] . however, none of them allows the community to choose what type of configuration they need. the same issue arises with the pricing policy. all papers consider some pricing policy present and even fluctuating depending on some factors as time and demand [6] . however, the details are omitted of how exactly the pricing is organized as well as how shares are distributed among different entities in the system. finally, the topic of leasing or renting out the land is not thoroughly defined, in particular, how exactly it can be done through the system. in [15] a token system is proposed but the details of how exactly the partitioning of a land will be tackled in the system are not presented. the objective of this work is to take into account drawbacks of the current centralised parking solutions, as well as limitations of the decentralised parking systems and to design and build a system that would address those issues. the system will utilise smart contracts and take into consideration some realistic requirements gathered by interviewing people from the industry. any proper system-development commences with gathering important requirements of the system. furthermore, as [13] states "one might use questionnaires or interviews to explore what problems members see as most important, how members place themselves in various classification schemes, etc." thus, an interview has been conducted with a representative of park smart [2] . park smart is a smart parking solution company founded in italy, messina in 2014 and its main aim is to implement a software-based technology able to analyse, in real-time, the availability of space in in-street parking. the company has already been in the field for a few years. therefore, was valuable to question them about their experience and to learn what are the main requirements for a parking system. the interview has shown some essential aspects of the modern smart parking system and it has also revealed some common shortcomings of the existing system. for instance, if a company wants to use this solution for paid parking, they can provide their end point to park smart in order to receive money through the system. this approach has inspired the idea of service providers in our system. moreover, the interviewee has confirmed our concern about the centralisation of current systems. park smart itself has a patent about blockchain architecture for their system, however, it has not been implemented yet. besides, the importance of flexible pricing policies has been highlighted. companies have different rates at a different time of the day, therefore, this part of functionally is to be flexible. finally, we found out what particular information about users and processes is needed for such a system, and this has affected our decisions of what to store in the proposed solution. in order to comprehend the needs of various user roles in the system, user stories have been gathered. the roles that we considered are the following: administrator, landlord, tenant, driver, and service provider. the user stories have revealed a particular set of features that every role needed. here we extract the key functionality from the user stories. first of all, both driver and parking providers (landlords and tenants) require a safe, trustworthy way of conducting payments in such a way that both parties are guaranteed that the amount of funds transferred is equivalent to the provided service. besides, landlords and tenants want to ensure that both parties respect the renting contracts they make among them and that such contracts can be extended or amended over time. parking providers also want the system to postulate equal treatment for all parking lots so that there are no privileged ones, promoted by that system. finally, the administrative authority requires to have privileged over the system (bounded by conditions of contracts made with other parties). in total, the backlog is constituted by more than 30 user stories, which were considered during the design and implementation phases. there are several participants in the system: landlord, tenant, driver or car, iot box installed in each parking system, administrator and as a governing authority. the parking system consists of thin clients (such as a mobile or a web app), and each participant can access their part of functionality through the thin client. every thin client is connected to a local evm (etherium virtual machine) node, which in turn is connected to the rest of the etherium network. the local node has an instance of the ledger, shared by all nodes, and also hosts smart contracts. whenever a participant wants to perform an action (e.g. initiate parking or update number of free parking sports), the thin client tells the evm to invoke a corresponding method of some smart contract. this action is performed in the form of a transaction on the blockchain. the blockchain network contains a public ledger and updates the public ledger with the valid transactions only. a consensus mechanism is used to verify the transactions. once the new transaction is verified, the public ledger is updated, and the local copies of the ledger in each node are synchronised and all participants can observe the new state of the parking system. this overview is visualised in fig. 4 . smart contracts are the back-end part of the system. the logic is distributed among several contracts, which correspond to logical components of the system. each contract encapsulates its sensitive data and controls access to its functions. this way, only authorised entities can perform actions in the system, even though the contracts are publicly exposed. actors of the system deploy some of the contracts, other contracts are deployed automatically in existing contracts. the decision of whether a contract is deployed from the outside of the system or within contracts depends on two questions: 1. is the nature of the contract static or dynamic? 2. should the system validate and control the deployment process of a contract? the nature of a contract matters because some contracts are deployed once and remain active in the system for a long time, whereas others are needed only for a short amount of time, and after their expiration, they cannot be used inside the system anymore. an example of a static contract could be the parking system contract, which is deployed by the authorities and the life cycle of this contract defines the life cycle of the system itself. on the other hand, an example of a contract of a more dynamic nature could be a payment channel. whenever a new parking process commences, the system automatically generates a payment channel. such a contract has a short lifetime and cannot be reused. thus the burden of its creation lies upon the shoulders of a static contract -parking provider. the latter question tackles the problem of validation. contracts can be inherited, and their behaviour can be changed by other parties. for example, the parking lot contract can be modified to surpass the tax obligation. that is why one requests the system to deploy such a contract. the system verifies all information related to the contract and only after that deploys it. for other contracts, on the contrary, extensions are allowed. for instance, payment policy defines a set of methods to be implemented to calculate the price of particular parking, however, it is up to a parking provider how exactly the price will be calculated. thus, a parking provider is entitled to extend and deploy their payment policy and supply the address of this policy to the system. parking system is the first contract to be deployed to launch the system. it is deployed by an administrative authority (e.g. a city hall) and it implements the main managing functionality of the system. the parking system contract is responsible for the registration of new parking lots and cars as well as for storing addresses of all other entities in the system. whenever some request cannot be fulfilled automatically by the contract, it saves the request and pends administration's approval. moreover, this contact provides a means of control and management of the whole system. thus, the system cannot exists without this contract. parking provider is an abstract contract that cannot be used on its own but should be extended in order to be used. it implements the logic of the parking process and stores information about what parking stalls it possesses and what cars are parked at the stalls. in other words, whenever a car wants to park, the code of this contract is used. in order to park a car sends funds to this contract. it also specifies a stall number and till what time it wants to be parked. the contract calculates the price, checks if the funds sent are sufficient and whether a parking stall is free and after that creates a payment channel. optionally parking provider can also have a set a service providers, in this case a car can specify which service provider it is using and a fraction of the payments will go to the service provider. this contract preserves general information about a car. this information includes its plate number, account address of its owner and the rating of the car in the system. in addition to that, it stores information about parking. that includes whether the car is parked now or not, the address of the payment channel, parking history. if one needs some information about a car, this is the contract to address. parking lot extends parking provider contract and is deployed by the parking system contracts at a request of a landlord and with approval of the administrator. this contract adds functionality to partition the parking lot among several tenants. in order to do so, a tenant creates a request to this contract. if the landlord approves the request, the contract creates a renting contract between the landlord and the tenant. it also contains general information about the parking lot, such as its rating, address and so on. tenant also extends parking provider contract. unlike parking lot contract, this contract does not need permission from the system to be deployed as it interacts only with a parking lot. a tenant can set its payment policy and it also stores the address of its contract with a parking lot. conceptually a service provider is a third-party entity that collaborates with a parking provider in order to place information about the parking provider's stall on their platform. thus, the contract only facilitates the interaction between a service provider and a parking provider. it contains information about a service provider and about parking provider with whom it collaborates. renting contract implements a relationship between a parking lot and a tenant in such a way that both parties are guaranteed that their agreement will be respected in the system. the contract is deployed when the parking lot contract approves registration of a new tenant. after that, the tenant reviews the contract and if conditions are satisfactory, the renting process begins. the contract also contains logic for penalties in case of delayed payment. finally, it supports the introduction of amendments from both parties. in the case of mutual agreement, such amendments can modify the behaviour of the contract. payment channel implements the logic for micropayments between two parties, in such a way that both parties are guaranteed to receive the promised funds. one party opens the contract and sends funds to it. after that, the funds are locked in the contract, and neither of the parties can access them. micropayments are conducted off-chain, therefore, they are not part of this contract. once the payment process is completed, the receiving party sends the last encrypted message to the contract, and the contract uses encryption algorithms to verify that the party is entitled to receive the funds. if that is the case, funds are sent to the receiver's address. the detailed description of the principles behind this contract can be found in sect. 3. payment policy is a protocol that defines two methods: get payment rate at a particular time and get a total price for parking given the start and the end time. it is up to parking providers to define their parking policies, depending on their business goals. a particular implementation of this protocol is provided. it implements a policy that can have a specific rate depending on an hour and a day of the week. the front-end part of the parking system is a distributed application in the form of web, mobile or embedded software installed on mobile phones and computers of the administrator, landlords, tenants and drivers as well as in iot boxes at parking lots. in future they will be referred to as think clients. every thin client provides a user interface or an api for interaction with the system. user interfaces are used by landlords, administrator, tenants and drivers. the api is used by the iot box or a smart car. the front-end part is responsible for translating users' actions into requests to the smart contracts. in order for the front-end distributed application to communicate with the evm, there has to be a specific data-interchange format. this format is called json-rpc [14] . it is utilised through a javascript library called web3.js 1 , which allows us to interact with a local or remote ethereum node using a http or ipc connection [4] . as depicted in fig. 5 every front-end module of the distributed system communicates mostly with their own smart contract and this contract, in turn, is responsible for the interaction with the parking system module and other modules. whenever a car gets parked at a parking lot, there is a mutual agreement between the parking lot and the car: the car receives a service and transfers money for parking. in a traditional system, the payment is conducted in advance for a particular period, [19] . such system lacks trustworthiness, as a car has to blindly trust the parking provider, that the service will be provided sufficiently and will not be interrupted earlier, the parking provider, in turn, has to ensure that the car is not parked for longer than the paid period, this requires additional control that brings an additional cost. finally, parking is not a discrete process, unlike the pricing policy in traditional parking systems, which results in drivers oftentimes paying more than they should. this problem can be solved by implementing a micro-payment channel through a smart contract and direct signed messages. the high-level picture of such payment includes three steps: 1. driver deploys a contract with locked funds of some amount that exceeds any possible parking period. 2. driver emits messages directly to the service provider. the messages are the "microtransactions" containing how the amount is transferred. the parking lot can check the validity of the messages as they are signed by car. 3. after the parking process is over, the service provider can use the last message to retrieve the claimed amount of funds from the contract. the remained of the locked funds are sent back to the car. it is essential to mention that in this scenario only steps 1 and 3 happen on the blockchain and the most intense process of micro-payments is conducted offchain through a peer-to-peer communication [3] . thus, the parties do not have to conduct costly blockchain transactions (gas in etherium terminology [8] ) for each fig. 6 . sequence diagram of micro-payments over blockchain payment. only two transactions are required: to deploy the contract (by the car) and to claim the end of the payment period (by the parking lot). moreover, the transaction fee will be paid by the service provider, thus removing any additional fees from the car. this process is visualised in fig. 6. a significant amount of research has been conducted on smart parking. in this paper, we have examined some of the recent work related to this topic and propose a solution. interviews have been conducted with domain experts, user stories defined and a system architecture has been proposed with a case study. our solution allows independent owners of parking space to be integrated into one unified system, that facilitates the parking situation in a smart city. the utilization of such a system raises the issues of trust and transparency among several actors of the parking process. in order to tackle those, we propose a smart contract-based solution, that brings in trust by encapsulating sensitive relations and processes into transparent and distributed smart contracts. from the architecture point of view services and, in particular, microservices [7, 9, 22] and their composition, orchestration [20, 23] , reconfiguration [21] and recovery [10] have not been discussed. all these are open issues that need to be investigated in future. mvrdv unveils plans to reopen the hague's forgotten canals the peerjs library documentation real-time image-based parking occupancy detection using deep learning a blockchain-based architecture for integrated smart parking systems microservices, science and engineering introducing ethereum and solidity microservices: yesterday, today, and tomorrow a formal semantics for the ws-bpel recovery framework a blockchain and gamification approach for smart parking a novel architecture of parking management for smart cities techniques for requirements elicitation parkchain: a blockchain powered parking solution for smart cities parking management: a blockchain-based privacy-preserving system iot based smart parking system a traffic-aware street lighting scheme for smart cities using autonomous networked sensors parking pricing implementation guidelines how more efficient parking pricing can help solve parking and traffic problems, increase revenue, and achieve other planning objectives towards abstractions for web services composition design, modelling and analysis of a workflow reconfiguration size matters: microservices research and applications. microservices a case study of web services orchestration urbanisation concepts and trends governing the smart city: a review of the literature on smart urban governance allocating an area to a vehicle smart parking service based on wireless sensor networks key: cord-301117-egd1gxby authors: barh, debmalya; chaitankar, vijender; yiannakopoulou, eugenia ch; salawu, emmanuel o.; chowbina, sudhir; ghosh, preetam; azevedo, vasco title: in silico models: from simple networks to complex diseases date: 2013-11-15 journal: animal biotechnology doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-416002-6.00021-3 sha: doc_id: 301117 cord_uid: egd1gxby in this chapter, we consider in silico modeling of diseases starting from some simple to some complex (and mathematical) concepts. examples and applications of in silico modeling for some important categories of diseases (such as for cancers, infectious diseases, and neuronal diseases) are also given. mathematically and computed models are established. these in silico models encode and test hypotheses about mechanisms underlying the function of cells, the pathogenesis and pathophysiology of disease, and contribute to identification of new drug targets and drug design. the development of in silico models is facilitated by rapidly advancing experimental and analytical tools that generate information-rich, high-throughput biological data. bioinformatics provides tools for pattern recognition, machine learning, statistical modeling, and data extraction from databases that contribute to in silico modeling. dynamical systems theory is the natural language for investigating complex biological systems that demonstrate nonlinear spatio-temporal behavior. most in silico models aim to complement (and not replace) experimental research. experimental data are needed for parameterization, calibration, and validation of in silico models. typical examples in biology are models for molecular networks, where the behavior of cells is expressed in terms of quantitative changes in the levels of transcripts and gene products, as well as models of cell cycle. in medicine, in silico models of cancer, immunological disease, lung disease, and infectious diseases complement conventional research with in vitro models, animal models, and clinical trials. this chapter presents basic concepts of bioinformatics, systems biology, their applications in in silico modeling, and also reviews applications in biology and disease. biotechnology will be the most promising life science frontier for the next decade. together with informatics, biotechnology is leading revolutionary changes in our society and economy. this genomic revolution is global, and is creating new prospects in all biological sciences, including medicine, human health, disease, and nutrition, agronomy, and animal biotechnology. animal biotechnology is a source of innovation in production and processing, profoundly impacting the animal husbandry sector, which seeks to improve animal product quality, health, and well-being. biotechnological research products, such as vaccines, diagnostics, in vitro fertilization, transgenic animals, stem cells, and a number of other therapeutic recombinant products, are now commercially available. in view of the immense potential of biotechnology in the livestock and poultry sectors, interest in animal biotechnology has increased over the years. the fundamental requirement for modern biotechnology projects is the ability to gather, store, classify, analyze, and distribute biological information derived from genomics projects. bioinformatics deals with methods for storing, retrieving, and analyzing biological data and protein sequences, structures, functions, pathways, and networks, and recently, in silico disease modeling and simulation using systems biology. bioinformatics encompasses both conceptual and practical tools for the propagation, generation, processing, and understanding of scientific ideas and biological information. genomics is the scientific study of structure, function, and interrelationships of both individual genes and the genome. lately, genomics research has played an important role in uncovering the building blocks of biology and complete genome mapping of various living organisms. this has enabled researchers to decipher fundamental cellular functions at the dna level, such as gene regulation or protein-protein interactions, and thus to discover molecular signatures (clusters of genes, proteins, metabolites, etc.), which are characteristic of a biological process or of a specific phenotype. bioinformatics methods and databases can be developed to provide solutions to challenges of handling massive amounts of data. the history of animal biotechnology with bioinformatics is to make a strong research community that will build the resources and support veterinary and agricultural research. there are some technologies that were used dating back to 5,000 b.c. many of these techniques are still being used today. for example, hybridizing animals by crossing specific strains of animals to create greater genetic varieties is still in practice. the offspring of some of these crosses are selectively bred afterward to produce the most desirable traits in those specific animals. there has been significant interest in the complete analysis of the genome sequence of farm animals such as chickens, pigs, cattle, sheep, fish, and rabbits. the genomes of farm animals have been altered to search for preferred phenotypic traits, and then selected for better-quality animals to continue into the next generation. access to these sequences has given rise to genome array chips and a number of web-based mapping tools and bioinformatics tools required to make sense of the data. in addition, organization of gigabytes of sequence data requires efficient bioinformatics databases. fadiel et al. (2005) provides a nice overview of resources related to farm animal bioinformatics and genome projects. with farm animals consuming large amounts of genetically modified crops, such as modified corn and soybean crops, it is good to question the effect this will have on their meat. some of the benefits of this technology are that what once took many years of trial and error is now completed in just months. the meats that are being produced are coming from animals that are better nourished by the use of biotechnology. biotechnology and conventional approaches are benefiting both poultry and livestock producers. this will give a more wholesome affordable product that will meet growing population demands. moreover, bioinformatics methods devoted to investigating the genomes of farm animals can bring eventual economic benefits, such as ensuring food safety and better food quality in the case of beef. recent advances in highthroughput dna sequencing techniques, microarray technology, and proteomics have led to effective research in bovine muscle physiology to improve beef quality, either by breeding or rearing factors. bioinformatics is a key tool to analyze the huge datasets obtained from these techniques. the computational analysis of global gene expression profiling at the mrna or protein level has shown that previously unsuspected genes may be associated either with muscle development or growth, and may lead to the development of new molecular indicators of tenderness. gene expression profiling has been used to document changes in gene expression; for example, following infection by pathological organisms, during the metabolic changes imposed by lactation in dairy cows, in cloned bovine embryos, and in various other models. bioinformatics enrichment tools are playing an important role in facilitating the functional analysis of large gene lists from various high-throughput biological studies. huang et al. discusses 68 bioinformatics enrichment tools, which helps us understand their algorithms and the details of a particular tool. however, in biology genes do not act independently, but in a highly coordinated and interdependent manner. in order to understand the biological meaning, one needs to map these genes into gene-ontology (go) categories or metabolic and regulatory pathways. different bioinformatics approaches and tools are employed for this task, starting form go-ranking methods, pathway mappings, and biological network analysis (werner, 2008) . the awareness of these resources and methods is essential to make the best choices for particular research interests. knowledge of bioinformatics tools will facilitate their wide application in the field of animal biotechnology. bioinformatics is the computational data management discipline that helps us gather, analyze, and represent this information in order to educate ourselves, understand biological processes in healthy and diseased states, and to facilitate discovery of better animal products. continued efforts are required to develop cost-effective and efficient computational platforms that can retrieve, integrate, and interpret the knowledge behind the genome sequences. the application of bioinformatics tools for biotechnology research will have significant implications in the life sciences and for the betterment of human lives. bioinformatics is being adopted worldwide by academic groups, companies, and national and international research groups, and it should be thought of as an important pillar of current and future biotechnology, without which rapid progress in the field would not be possible. systems approaches in combination with genomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and kinomics data have tremendous potential for providing insights into various biological mechanisms, including the most important human diseases. we are witnessing the birth of a new era in biology. the ability to uncover the genetic code of living organisms has dramatically changed the biological and biomedical sciences approach towards research. these new approaches have also brought in newer challenges. one such challenge is that recent and novel technologies produce biological datasets of ever-increasing size, including genomic sequences, rna and protein abundances, their interactions with each other, and the identity and abundance of other biological molecules. the storage and compilation of such quantities of biological data is a challenge: the human genome, for example, contains 3 billion chemical units of dna, whereas a protozoan genome has 670 billion units of dna. data management and interpretation requires development of newly sophisticated computational methods based on research in biology, medicine, pharmacology, and agricultural studies and using methods from computer science and mathematics -in other words, the multi-disciplinary subject of bioinformatics. bioinformatics enables researchers to store large datasets in a standard computer database format and provides tools and algorithms scientists use to extract integrated information from the databases and use it to create hypotheses and models. bioinformatics is a growth area because almost every experiment now involves multiple sources of data, requiring the ability to handle those data and to draw out inferences and knowledge. after 15 years of rapid evolution, the subject is now quite ubiquitous. another challenge lies in deciphering the complex interactions in biological systems, known as systems biology. systems biology can be described as a biology-based interdisciplinary field of study that focuses on complex interactions of biological systems. those in the field claim that it represents a shift in perspective towards holism instead of reductionism. systems biology has great potential to facilitate development of drugs to treat specific diseases. the drugs currently on the market can target only those proteins that are known to cause disease. however, with the human genome now completely mapped, we can target the interaction of genes and proteins at a systems biology level. this will enable the pharmaceutical industry to design drugs that will only target those genes that are diseased, improving healthcare in the united states. like two organs in one body, systems analysis and bioinformatics are separate but interdependent. computational methods take an interdisciplinary approach, involving mathematicians, chemists, biologists, biochemists, and biomedical engineers. the robustness of datasets related to gene interaction and co-operation at a systems level requires multifaceted approaches to create a hypothesis that can be tested. two approaches are used to understand the network interactions in systems biology, namely experimental and theoretical and modeling techniques (choi, 2007) . in the following sections is a detailed overview of the different computational or bioinformatics methods in modern systems biology. experimental methods utilize real situations to test the hypothesis of mined data sets. as such, living organisms are used whereby various aspects of genome-wide measurements and interactions are monitored. specific examples on this point include: protein-protein interaction predictions are methods used to predict the outcome of pairs or groups of protein interactions. these predictions are done in vivo, and various methods can be used to carry out the predictions. interaction prediction is important as it helps researchers make inferences of the outcomes of ppi. ppi can be studied by phylogenetic profiling, identifying structural patterns and homologous pairs, intracellular localization, and post-translational modifications, among others. a survey of available tools and web servers for analysis of protein-protein interactions is provided by tuncbag et al., 2009. within biological systems, several activities involving the basic units of a gene take place. such processes as dna replication, and rna translation and transcription into proteins must be controlled; otherwise, the systems could yield numerous destructive or useless gene products. transcriptional control networks, also called gene regulatory networks, are segments within the dna that govern the rate and product of each gene. bioinformatics have devised methods to look for destroyed, dormant, or unresponsive control networks. the discovery of such networks helps in corrective therapy, hence the ability to control some diseases resulting from such control network breakdowns. there has also been rapid progress in the development of computational methods for the genome-wide "reverse engineering" of such networks. aracne is an algorithm to identify direct transcriptional interactions in mammalian cellular networks, and promises to enhance the ability to use microarray data to elucidate cellular processes and to identify molecular targets of pharmacological drugs in mammalian cellular networks. in addition to methods like aracne, systems biology approaches are needed that incorporate heterogeneous data sources, such as genome sequence and protein-dna interaction data. the development of such computational modeling techniques to include diverse types of molecular biological information clearly supports the gene regulatory network inference process and enables the modeling of the dynamics of gene regulatory systems. one such technique is the template-based method to construct networks. an overview of the method is shown in flow chart 21.1. the template-based transcriptional control network reconstruction method exploits the principle that orthologous proteins regulate orthologous target genes. given a genome of interest (goi), the first step is to select the template genome (tg) and known regulatory interactions (i.e. template network, tn) in this genome. in step 2, for every protein (p) in tn, a blast search is performed against goi to obtain the best hit sequences (px). in step three these px are then used as a query to perform a blast search against tg. if the best hit using px as a query happens to be p, then both p and px are selected as orthologous proteins in step four. if orthologs were detected for an interacting p and target gene then the interaction is transferred in goi in the final step. note that this automated way of detecting orthologs can infer false positives. signal transduction is how cells communicate with each other. signal transduction pathways involve interactions between proteins, micro-and macro-molecules, and dna. a breakdown in signal transduction pathways could lead flow chart 21.1 template-based method for regulatory network reconstruction. to detrimental consequences within the system due to lack of integrated communication. correction of broken signal transduction pathways is a therapeutic approach researched for use in many areas of medicine. high-throughput and multiplex techniques for quantifying signaling and cellular responses are becoming increasingly available and affordable. a high-throughput quantitative multiplex kinase assay, mass spectrometrybased proteomics, and single-cell proteomics are a few of the experimental methods used to elucidate signal transduction mechanisms of cells. these large-scale experiments are generating large data sets on protein abundance and signaling activity. data-driven modeling approaches such as clustering, principal components analysis, and partial least squares need to be developed to derive biological hypotheses. the potential of data-driven models to study large-scale data sets quantitatively and comprehensively will make sure that these methods will emerge as standard tools for understanding signal-transduction networks. the systems biology and mathematical biology fields focus on modeling biological systems. computational systems biology aims to develop computational models of biological systems. specifically, it focuses on developing and using efficient algorithms, data structures, visualization tools, and communication tools. a mathematical model can provide new insights into a biological model of interest and help in generating testable predictions. modeling or simulation can be viewed as a way of creating an artificial biological system in vitro whose properties can be changed or made dynamic. by externally controlling the model, new datasets can be created and implemented at a systems level to create novel insights into treating generelated problems. in modeling and simulation, sets of differential equations and logic clauses are used to create a dynamic systems environment that can be tested. mathematical models of biochemical networks (signal transduction cascades, metabolic pathways, gene regulatory networks) are a central component of modern systems biology. the development of formal methods adopted from theoretical computing science is essential for the modeling and simulation of these complex networks. the computational methods that are being employed in mathematical biology and bioinformatics are the following: (a) directed graphs, (b) bayesian networks, (c) boolean networks and their generalizations, (d) ordinary and partial differential equations, (e) qualitative differential equations, (f) stochastic equations, and (g) rule-based formalisms. below are a few specific examples of the applications of these methods. mathematical models can be used to investigate the effects of drugs under a given set of perturbations based on specific tumor properties. this integration can help in the development of tools that aid in diagnosis and prognosis, and thus improve treatment outcome in patients with cancer. for example, breast cancer, being a well-studied disease over the last decade, serves as a model disease. one can thus apply the principles of molecular biology and pathology in designing new predictive mathematical frameworks that can unravel the dynamic nature of the disease. genetic mutations of brca1, brca2, tp53, and pten significantly affect disease prognosis and increase the likelihood of adverse reactions to certain therapies. these mutations enable normal cells to become self-sufficient in survival in a stepwise process. enderling et al. (2006) modeled this mutation and expansion process by assuming that mutations in two tumor-suppressor genes are sufficient to give rise to a cancer. they modified enderling's earlier model, which was based on an established partial differential equation model of solid tumor growth and invasion. the stepwise mutations from a normal breast stem cell to a tumor cell have been described using a model consisting of four differential equations. recently, woolf et al. (2005) applied a novel graphical modeling methodology known as bayesian network analysis to model discovery and model selection for signaling events that direct mouse embryonic stem cells (an important preliminary step in hypothesis testing) in protein signaling networks. the model predicts bidirectional dependence between the two molecules erk and fak. it is interesting to appreciate that the apparent complexity of these dynamic erk-fak interactions is quite likely responsible for the difficulty in determining clear "upstream" versus "downstream" influence relationships by means of standard molecular cell biology methods. bayesian networks determine the relative probability of statistical dependence models of arbitrary complexity for a given set of data. this method offers further clues to apply bayesian approaches to cancer biology problems. cell cycle is a process in which cells proliferate while collectively performing a series of coordinated actions. cell-cycle models also have an impact on drug discovery. chassagnole et al. (2006) used a mathematical model to simulate and unravel the effect of multi-target kinase inhibitors of cyclin-dependent kinases (cdks). they quantitatively predict the cytotoxicity of a set of kinase inhibitors based on the in vitro ic 50 measurement values. finally, they assess the pharmaceutical value of these inhibitors as anticancer therapeutics. in cancer, avascular tumor growth is characterized by localized, benign tumor growth where the nearby tissues consume most of the nutrients. mathematical modeling of avascular tumor growth is important to understanding the advanced stages of cancer. kiran et al. (2009) have developed a spatial-temporal mathematical model classified as a different zone model (dzm) for avascular tumor growth based on diffusion of nutrients and their consumption, and it includes key mechanisms in the tumor. the diffusion and nutrient consumption are represented using partial differential equations. this model predicts that onset of necrosis occurs when the concentrations of vital nutrients are below critical values, and also the overall tumor growth based on the size effects of the proliferation zone, quiescent zone, and necrotic zone. the mathematical approaches towards modeling the three natural scales of interest (subcellular, cellular, and tissue) are discussed above. developing models that can predict the effects across biological scales is a challenge. the long-term goal is to build a "virtual human made up of mathematical models with connections at the different biological scales (from genes to tissue to organ)." a model is an optimal mix of hypotheses, evidence, and abstraction to explain a phenomenon. hypothesis is a tentative explanation for an observation, phenomenon, or scientific problem that can be tested by further investigation. evidence describes information (i.e. experimental data) that helps in forming a conclusion or judgment. abstraction is an act of filtering out the required information to focus on a specific property only. for example, archiving books based on the year of publication, irrespective of the author name, would be an example of abstraction. in this process, some detail is lost and some gained. predictions are made through modeling that can be tested by experiment. a model may be simple (e.g. the logistic equation describing how a population of bacteria grows) or complicated. models may be mathematical or statistical. mathematical models make predictions, whereas statistical models enable us to draw statistical inferences about the probable properties of a system. in other words, models can be deductive or inductive. if the prediction is necessarily true given that the model is also true, then the model is a deductive model. on the other hand, if the prediction is statistically inferred from observations, then the model is inductive. deductive models contain a mathematical description; for example, the reaction-diffusion equation that makes predictions about reality. if these predictions do not agree with experiment, then the validity of the entire model may be questioned. mathematical models are commonly applied in physical sciences. on the other hand, inductive models are mostly applied in the biological sciences. in biology, models are used to describe, simulate, analyze, and predict the behavior of biological systems. modeling in biology provides a framework that enables description and understanding of biological systems through building equations that express biological knowledge. modeling enables the simulation of the behavior of a biological system by performing in silico experiments (i.e. numerically solving the equations or rules that describe the model). the results of these in silico experiments become the input for further analysis; for example, identification of key parameters or mechanisms, interpretation of data, or comparison of the ability of different mechanisms to generate observed data. in particular, systems biology employs an integrative approach to characterizing biological systems in which interactions among all components in a system are described mathematically to establish a computable model. these in silico models complement traditional in vivo animal models and can be applied to quantitatively study the behavior of a system of interacting components. the term "in silico" is poorly defined, with several researchers claiming their role in its origination (ekins et al., 2007) . sieburg (1990) and (danchin et al. 1991) were two of the earliest published works that used this term. specifically, in silico models gained much interest in the early stages by various imaging studies (chakroborty et al., 2003) . as an example, microarray analysis that enabled measurement of genome-scale expression levels of genes provided a method to investigate regulatory networks. years of regulatory network studies (that included microarray-based investigations) led to the development of some well-characterized regulatory networks such as e. coli and yeast regulatory networks. these networks are available in the genenetweaver (gnw) tool. gnw is an open-source tool for in silico benchmark generation and performance profiling of network inference methods. thus, the advent of high-throughput experimental tools has allowed for the simultaneous measurement of thousands of biomolecules, opening the way for in silico model construction of increasingly large and diverse biological systems. integrating heterogeneous dynamic data into quantitative predictive models holds great promise for significantly increasing our ability to understand and rationally intervene in disease-perturbed biological systems. this promise -particularly with regards to personalized medicine and medical intervention -has motivated the development of new methods for systems analysis of human biology and disease. such approaches offer the possibility of gaining new insights into the behavior of biological systems, of providing new frameworks for organizing and storing data and performing statistical analyses, suggesting new hypotheses and new experiments, and even of offering a "virtual laboratory" to supplement in vivo and in vitro work. however, in silico modeling in the life sciences is far from straightforward, and suffers from a number of potential pitfalls. thus, mathematically sophisticated but biologically useless models often arise because of a lack of biological input, leading to models that are biologically unrealistic, or that address a question of little biological importance. on the other hand, models may be biologically realistic but mathematically intractable. this problem usually arises because biologists unfamiliar with the limitations of mathematical analysis want to include every known biological effect in the model. even if it were possible to produce such models, they would be of little use since their behavior would be as complex to investigate as the experimental situation. these problems can be avoided by formulating clear explicit biological goals before attempting to construct a model. this will ensure that the resulting model is biologically sound, can be experimentally verified, and will generate biological insight or new biological hypotheses. the aim of a model should not simply be to reproduce biological data. indeed, often the most useful models are those that exhibit discrepancies from experiment. such deviations will typically stimulate new experiments or hypotheses. an iterative approach has been proposed, starting with a biological problem, developing a mathematical model, and then feeding back into the biology. once established, this collaborative loop can be traversed many times, leading to ever increasing understanding. the ultimate goal of in silico modeling in biology is the detailed understanding of the function of molecular networks as they appear in metabolism, gene regulation, or signal transduction. this is achieved by using a level of mathematical abstraction that needs a minimum of biological information to capture all physiologically relevant features of a cellular network. for example, ideally, for in silico modeling of a molecular network, knowledge of the network structure, all reaction rates, concentrations, and spatial distributions of molecules at any time point is needed. unfortunately, such information is unavailable even for the best-studied systems. in silico simulations thus always have to use a level of mathematical abstraction, which is dictated by the extent of our biological knowledge, by molecular details of the network, and by the specific questions that are addressed. understanding the complexity of the disease and its biological significance in health can be achieved by integrating data from the different functional genomics experiments with medical, physiological, and environmental factor information, and computing mathematically. the advantage of mathematical modeling of disease lies in the fact that such models not only shed light on how a complex process works, which could be very difficult for inferring an understanding of each component of this process, but also predict what may follow as time evolves or as the characteristics of particular system components are modified. mathematical models have generally been utilized in association with an increased understanding of what models can offer in terms of prediction and insight. the two distinct roles of models are prediction and understanding the accuracy, transparency, and flexibility of model properties. prediction of the models should be accurate, including all the complexities and population-level heterogeneity that have an additional use as a statistical tool. it also provides the understanding of how the disease spreads in the real world and how the complexity affects the dynamics. model understanding aids in developing sophisticated predictive models, along with gathering more relevant epidemiological data. a model should be as simple as possible and should have balance in accuracy, transparency, and flexibility; in other words, a model should be well suited for its purpose. the model should be helpful in understanding the behavior of the disease and able to simplify the other disease condition. several projects are proceeding along these lines, such as e-cell (tomita, 2001) and simulations of biochemical pathways. whole cell modeling integrates information from metabolic pathways, gene regulation, and gene expression. three elements are needed for constructing of a good cell model: precise knowledge of the phenomenon, an accurate mathematical representation, and a good simulation tool. a cell represents a dynamic environment of interaction among nucleic acids, proteins, carbohydrates, ions, ph, temperature, pressure, and electrical signals. many cells with similar functionality form tissue. in addition, each type of tissue uses a subset of this cellular inventory to accomplish a particular function. for example, in neurons, electro-chemical phenomena take precedence over cell division, whereas, cell division is a fundamental function of skin, lymphocytes, and bone marrow cells. thus, an ideal virtual cell not only represents all the information, but also exhibits the potential to differentiate into neuronal or epithelial cells. the first step in creating a whole cell model is to divide the entire network into pathways, and pathways into individual reactions. any two reactions belong to a pathway if they share a common intermediate. in silico modeling consists not only of decomposing events into manageable units, but also of assembling these units into a unified framework. in other words, mathematical modeling is the art of converting biology into numbers. for whole cell modeling, a checklist of biological phenomena that call for mathematical representation is needed. biological phenomena taken into account for in silico modeling of whole cells are the following: 1. dna replication and repair 2. translation 3. transcription and regulation of transcription 4. energy metabolism 5. cell division 6. chromatin modeling 7. signaling pathways 8. membrane transport (ion channels, pump, nutrients) 9. intracellular molecular trafficking 10. cell membrane dynamics 11. metabolic pathways the whole cell metabolism includes enzymatic and nonenzymatic processes. enzymatic processes cover most of the metabolic events, while non-enzymatic processes include gene expression and regulation, signal transduction, and diffusion. in silico modeling of whole cells not only requires precise qualitative and quantitative data, but also an appropriate mathematical representation of each event. for metabolic modeling, the data input consists of kinetics of individual reactions and also effects of cofactors, ph, and ions on the model. the key step in modeling is to choose an appropriate assumption. for example, a metabolic pathway may be a mix of forward and reverse reactions. furthermore, inhibitors that are part of the pathway may influence some reactions. at every step, enzymatic equations are needed that best describe the process. in silico models are built because they are easy to understand, controllable, and can store and analyze large amounts of information. a well-built model has diagnostic and predictive abilities. a cell by itself is a complete biochemical reactor that contains all the information one needs to understand life. whole cell modeling enables investigation of the cell cycle, physiology, spatial organization, and cell-cell communication. sequential actions in whole cell modeling are the following: 1. catalog all the substances that make up a cell. substances (for qualitative modeling). 5. add rate constants, concentration of substances, and strength of inhibition. 6. assume appropriate mathematical representations for individual reactions. 7. simulate reactions with suitable simulation software. 8. diagnose the system with system analysis software. 9. perturb the system and correlate its behavior to an underlying genetic and/or biochemical factor. 10. predict phenomenon using a hypothesis generator. in silico modeling of disease combines the advantages of both in vivo and in vitro experimentation. unlike in vitro experiments, which exist in isolation, in silico models provide the ability to include a virtually unlimited array of parameters, which render the results more applicable to the organism as a whole. in silico modeling allows us to examine the workings of biological processes such as homeostasis, reproduction, evolution, etc. for example, one can explore the processes of darwinian evolution through in silico modeling, which are not practical to study in real time. in silico modeling of disease is quite challenging. attempting to incorporate every single known interaction rapidly leads to an unmanageable model. furthermore, parameter determination in such models can be a frightening experience. estimates come from diverse experiments, which may be elegantly designed and well executed but can still give rise to widely differing values for parameters. data can come from both in vivo and in vitro experiments, and results that hold in one medium may not always hold in the other. furthermore, despite the many similarities between mammalian systems, significant differences do exist, and so results obtained from experiments using animal and human tissue may not always be consistent. also there are many considerations that cannot be applied. for example, one cannot investigate the role of stochastic fluctuations by removing them from the system, or one cannot directly explore the process that gave rise to current organisms. in silico modeling has been applied in cancer, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, immune diseases, neuronal diseases, and infectious diseases (among others). in silico models of disease can contribute to a better understanding of the pathophysiology of the disease, suggest new treatment strategies, and provide insight into the design of experimental and clinical trials for the investigation of new treatment modalities. in silico modeling of cancer has become an interesting alternative approach to traditional cancer research. in silico models of cancer are expected to predict the complexity of cancer at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions, with the aim of supplementing diagnosis and treatment by helping plan more focused and effective therapy via surgical resection, standard and targeted chemotherapy, and novel treatments. in silico models of cancer include: (a) statistical models of cancer, such as molecular signatures of perturbed genes and molecular pathways, and statistically-inferred reaction networks; (b) models that represent biochemical, metabolic, and signaling reaction networks important in oncogenesis, including constraint-based and dynamic approaches for the reconstruction of such networks; and (c) models of the tumor microenvironment and tissue-level interactions (edelman et al., 2010) . statistical models of cancer can be broadly divided into those that employ unbiased statistical inference, and those that also incorporate a priori constraints of specific biological interactions from data. statistical models of cancer biology at the genetic, chromosomal, transcriptomic, and pathway levels provide insight about molecular etiology and consequences of malignant transformation despite incomplete knowledge of underlying biological interactions. these models are able to identify molecular signatures that can inform diagnosis and treatment selection, for example with molecular targeted therapies such as imatinib (gleevec) (edelman et al., 2010) . however, in order to characterize specific biomolecular mechanisms that drive oncogenesis, genetic and transcriptional activity must be considered in the context of cellular networks that ultimately drive cellular behavior. in microbial cells, network inference tools have been developed and applied for the modeling of diverse biochemical, signaling, and gene expression networks. however, due to the much larger size of the human genome compared to microbes, and the substantially increased complexity of eukaryotic genetic regulation, inference of transcriptional regulatory networks in cancer presents increased practical and theoretical challenges. biochemical reaction networks are constructed to represent explicitly the mechanistic relationships between genes, proteins, and the chemical inter-conversion of metabolites within a biological system. in these models, network links are based on pre-established biomolecular interactions rather than statistical associations; significant experimental characterization is thus needed to reconstruct biochemical reaction networks in human cells. these biochemical reaction networks require, at a minimum, knowledge of the stoichiometry of the participating reactions. additional information such as thermodynamics, enzyme capacity constraints, time-series concentration profiles, and kinetic rate constants can be incorporated to compose more detailed dynamic models (edelman et al., 2010) . microenvironment-tissue level models of cancer apply an "engineering" approach that views tumor lesions as complex micro-structured materials, where three-dimensional tissue architecture ("morphology") and dynamics are coupled in complex ways to cell phenotype, which in turn is influenced by factors in the microenvironment. computational approaches of in silico cancer research include continuum models, discrete models, and hybrid models. in continuum models, extracellular parameters can be represented as continuously distributed variables to mathematically model cell-cell or cell-environment interactions in the context of cancers and the tumor microenvironment. systems of partial differential equations have been used to simulate the magnitude of interaction between these factors. continuum models are suitable for describing the individual cell migration, change of cancer cell density, diffusion of chemo-attractants, heat transfer in hyperthermia treatment for skin cancer, cell adhesion, and the molecular network of a cancer cell as an entire entity. however, these types of in silico models have limited ability for investigating singlecell behavior and cell-cell interaction. on the other hand, "discrete" models (i.e. cellular automata models) represent cancer cells as discrete entities of defined location and scale, interacting with one another and external factors in discrete time intervals according to predefined rules. agent-based models expand the cellular automata paradigm to include entities of divergent functionalities interacting together in a single spatial representation, including different cell types, genetic elements, and environmental factors. agent-based models have been used for modeling three-dimensional tumor cell patterning, immune system surveillance, angiogenesis, and the kinetics of cell motility. hybrid models have been created which incorporate both continuum and agent-based variables in a modular approach. hybrid models are ideal for examining direct interactions between individual cells and between the cells and their microenvironment, but they also allow us to analyze the emergent properties of complex multi-cellular systems (such as cancer). hybrid models are often multi-scale by definition, integrating processes on different temporal and spatial scales, such as gene expression, intracellular pathways, intercellular signaling, and cell growth or migration. there are two general classes of hybrid models, those that are defined upon a lattice and those that are off-lattice. the classification of hybrid models on these two classes depends on the number of cells these models can handle and the included details of each individual cell structure, i.e. models dealing with large cell populations but with simplified cell geometry, and those that model small colonies of fully deformable cells. for example, a hybrid model investigated the invasion of healthy tissue by a solid tumor. the model focused on four key parameters implicated in the invasion process; tumor cells, host tissue (extracellular matrix), matrix-degradative enzymes, and oxygen. the model is actually hybrid, wherein the tumor cells were considered to be discrete (in terms of concentrations), and the remaining variables were in the continuous domain in terms of concentrations. this hybrid model can make predictions on the effects of individual-based cell interactions (both between individuals and the matrix) on tumor shape. the model of zhang et al. (2007) incorporated a continuous model of a receptor signaling pathway, an intracellular transcriptional regulatory network, cell-cycle kinetics, and three-dimensional cell migration in an integrated, agent-based simulation of solid brain tumor development. the interactions between cellular and microenvironment states have also been considered in a multi-scale model that predicts tumor morphology and phenotypic evolution in response to such extracellular pressures. the biological context in which cancers develop is taken into consideration in in silico models of the tumor microenvironment. such complex tumor microenvironments may integrate multiple factors including extracellular biomolecules, vasculature, and the immune system. however, rarely have these methods been integrated with a large cell-cell communication network in a complex tumor microenvironment. recently, an interesting effort of in silico modeling was described in which the investigators integrated all the intercellular signaling pathways known to date for human glioma and generated a dynamic cell-cell communication network associated with the glioma microenvironment. then they applied evolutionary population dynamics and the hill functions to interrogate this intercellular signaling network and execute an in silico tumor microenvironment development. the observed results revealed a profound influence of the micro-environmental factors on tumor initiation and growth, and suggested new options for glioma treatment by targeting cells or soluble mediators in the tumor microenvironment (wu et al., 2012) . trauma and infection can cause acute inflammatory responses, the degree of which may have several pathological manifestations like systemic inflammatory response syndrome (sirs), sepsis, and multiple organ failure (mof). however, an appropriate management of these states requires further investigation. translating the results of basic science research to effective therapeutic regimes has been a longstanding issue due in part to the failure to account for the complex nonlinear nature of the inflammatory process wherein sirs/mof represent a disordered state. hence, the in silico modeling approach can be a promising research direction in this area. indeed, in silico modeling of inflammation has been applied in an effort to bridge the gap between basic science and clinical trials. specifically, both agent-based modeling and equation-based modeling have been utilized . equation-based modeling encompasses primarily ordinary differential equations (ode) and partial differential equations (pde). initial modeling studies were focused on the pathophysiology of the acute inflammatory response to stress, and these studies suggested common underlying processes generated in response to infection, injury, and shock. later, mathematical models included the recovery phase of injury and gave insight into the link between the initial inflammatory response and subsequent healing process. the first mathematical models of wound healing dates back to the 1980s and early 1990s. these models and others developed in the 1990s investigated epidermal healing, repair of the dermal extracellular matrix, wound contraction, and wound angiogenesis. most of these models were deterministic and formulated using differential equations. in addition, recent models have been formulated using differential equations to analyze different strategies for improved healing, including wound vacs, commercially engineered skin substitutes, and hyperbaric oxygen. in addition, agent-based models have been used in wound healing research. for example, mi et al. (2007) developed an agent-based model to analyze different treatment strategies with wound debridement and topical administration of growth factors. their model produced the expected results of healing when analyzing for different treatment strategies including debridement, release of pdgf, reduction in tumor necrosis factor-î±, and increase of tgf-î²1. the investigators suggested that a drug company should use a mathematical model to test a new drug before going through the expensive process of basic science testing, toxicology and clinical trials. indeed, clinical trial design can be improved by prior in silico modeling. for example, in silico modeling has led to the knowledge that patients who suffered from the immune-suppressed phenotype of late-stage multiple organ failure, and were susceptible to usually trivial nosocomial infections, demonstrated sustained elevated markers of tissue damage and inflammation through two weeks of simulated time. however, anti-cytokine drug trials with treatment protocols of only one dose or one day had not incorporated this knowledge into their design, with subsequent failure of candidate treatments. by now the reader is expected to be familiar with the meaning and the basics of in silico modeling. in this section we discuss the application of in silico modeling in the understanding of infectious diseases and in the proposition/ development of better treatments for infectious diseases. in fact, the applications of in silico modeling can help far beyond just the understanding of the dynamics (and sometimes, statistics) of infectious diseases, and far beyond the proposition/development of better treatments for infectious diseases. the modeling can be helpful even in the understanding of better prevention of infectious diseases. the level of pathogen within the host defines the process of infection; such pathogen levels are determined by the growth rate of the pathogen and its interaction with the host's immune response system. initially, no pathogen is present, but just a low-level, nonspecific immunity within the host. on infection, the parasite grows abundantly over time with the potential to transmit the infection to other susceptible individuals. to comprehensively understand in silico modeling in the domains of infectious diseases, one should first understand the "triad of infectious diseases," and the characteristics of "infectious agent," "host," and "environment" on which the models are always based. in fact, modeling of infectious diseases is just impossible without this triad; after all, the model would be built on some parameters (also called variables in more general language), and those parameters always have their origin from the so-called "triad of infectious diseases." at this point, a good question would be: what is a "triad of infectious diseases?" "triad of infectious diseases" means the interactions between (1) agent, which is the disease causing organism (the pathogen); (2) host, which is the infected organism, or in the case of pre-infection, the organism to be infected is the host (thus in this case the host is the animal the agent infects); and (3) environment, which is a kind of link between the agent and the host, and is essentially an umbrella word for the entirety of the possible media through which the agent reaches the host. now that we have an idea on what in silico modeling of infectious diseases are generally based on, we will outline a better understanding of the parameters that are considered in most in silico disease models. to discuss the parameters in an orderly manner, we just categorize them under each of the three components of the "triad of infectious diseases," and summarize them in the next subsection. it must be emphasized at this point that (1) even though all the possible parameters for in silico modeling of infectious diseases can be successfully categorized under the characteristics of one of any of the three components of the "triad of infectious diseases" (agent, host, and environment), (2) the parameters discussed in the next sub-section are by no means the entirety of all the possible parameters that can be included in in silico modeling of infectious diseases. in fact, several parameters exist, and this section cannot possibly enumerate them all. that is why we have discussed the parameters using a categorical approach. some of the parameters for in silico modeling of infectious diseases are essentially a measure of infectivity (ability to enter the host), pathogenicity (ability to cause divergence from homeostasis/disease), virulence (degree of divergence from homeostasis caused/ability to cause death), antigenicity (ability to bind to mediators of the host's adaptive immune system), and immunogenicity (ability to trigger adaptive immune response) of the concerned infectious agent. the exact measure (and thus the units) used can vary markedly depending on the intentions for which the in silico infectious diseases model is built, as well as the assumptions on which the in silico disease model is based. from the knowledge of the agent's characteristics, one should know that unlike parameters related to the other characteristics of the agent, the parameters related to infectivity find their most important use only in the modeling of the preinfection stage in infectious disease modeling. finally, some of the agent-related parameters of great importance in in silico modeling of infectious diseases are concentration of the agent's antigen-host antibody complex, case fatality rate, strain of the agent, other genetic information of the agent, etc. the parameters originating from characteristics of the host can also be diversified and based on the intentions for which the in silico infectious diseases model are built and the assumptions on which the in silico disease model are based; however, the parameters could then be grouped and explained under the host's genotype (the allele at the host's specified genetic locus), immunity/health status (biological defenses to avoid infection), nutritional status (feeding habits/food intake characteristics), gender (often categorized as male or female), age, and behavior (the host's behaviors that affect its resistance to homeostasis disruptors). typical examples of host-related parameters are the alleles at some specifically targeted genetic loci; the total white blood cell counts; differential white blood cell counts, and/or much more sophisticated counts of specific blood cell types; blood levels of some specific cytokines, hormones, and/or neurotransmitters; daily calories, protein, and/or fat intake; daily amount of energy expended and/or duration of exercise; etc. at first parameters originating from the environment might seem irrelevant to the in silico modeling of infectious diseases, but they are relevant. even after the pre-infection stage, the environment still modulates the host-agent intersections. for example, the ability (and thus the related parameters) of the agent to multiply and/or harm the host are continually influenced by the host's environmental conditions, and in a similar way the hosts defense against the adverse effects of the agents are modulated by the host's environmental conditions. but somehow, not so many of these parameters have been included in in silico infectious disease models in the recent past. a few examples of these parameters are the host's ambient temperature, the host's ambient atmospheric humidity, altitude, the host's light-dark cycle, etc. now that we know the parameters for in silico infectious disease modeling, the next reasonable question would be "what form does a typical in silico infectious disease model take?" so, this sub-section attempts to answer this very important question. let us view the in silico model as a system of wellintegrated functional equations or formulae. such well-integrated functional equations can be viewed or approximated as a single, albeit more complex, functional equation/formula. it is hence possible to vary any (or a combination) of the variables contained in this equation by running numerical simulations on a computer depending on the kind of prediction one wants to make. such in silico models can hence investigate several (maybe close to infinite) possible data points within reasonable limits that one sets depending on the nature of the variables considered. so the equations behind a typical infectious disease in silico model could take the form (equation 21.1): where h is the output from a smaller equation that is based on host parameters; î² is a constant; f and g are link functions which may be the same as or different from each other and other link functions in this system of equations; a is the output from a smaller equation that is based on agent parameters; g is a link function which may be the same or different from other link functions in this system of equations; e is the output from a smaller equation that is based on environment parameters; and æ� is a random error parameter. readers should know that we use the term "link function" to refer to any of the various possible forms of mathematical operations or functions. this means that based on the complexity of the model, a particular "link function" might be as simple as a mere addition or as complex as several combinations of operators with high degree polynomials. where î² a is a constant; f a1 , f a2 , â�¦ f ax are link functions that may be same or different (individually) from (every) other link function in this system of equations; a 1 , a 2 , â�¦ a x are a set of the agent's parameters (e.g. case fatality rate, agent's genotype, etc); and æ� is a random error parameter. where î² e is a constant; f e1 , f e2 , â�¦f ex are link functions which may be the same or different (individually) from (every) other link function in this system of equations; e 1 , e 2 , â�¦ e x are a set of environmental parameters (e.g. host's ambient temperature, host's ambient atmospheric humidity, etc.); and æ� is a random error parameter. muã±oz-elã­as et al. (2005) documented (through their paper "replication dynamics of mycobacterium tuberculosis in chronically infected mice") a successful in silico modeling of infectious diseases (specifically, tuberculosis). in their in silico modeling of tuberculosis in mice, the researchers investigated both the static and dynamic host-pathogen/agent equilibrium (i.e. mice-mycobacterium tuberculosis static and dynamic equilibrium). the rationale behind their study was that a better understanding of host-pathogen/agent interactions would make possible the development of better anti-microbial drugs for the treatment of tuberculosis (as well as provide similar understanding for the cases of other chronic infectious diseases). they modeled different types of host-pathogen/ agent equilibriums (ranging from completely static equilibrium, all the way through semi-dynamic, down to completely dynamic scenarios) by varying the rate of multiplication/growth and the rate of death of the pathogen/ agent (mycobacterium tuberculosis) during the infection's chronic phase. through their in silico study (which was also verified experimentally), they documented a number of remarkable findings. for example, they established that "viable bacterial counts and total bacterial counts in the lungs of chronically infected mice do not diverge over time," and they explained that "rapid degradation of dead bacteria is unlikely to account for the stability of total counts in the lungs over time because treatment of mice with isoniazid for 8 weeks led to a marked reduction in viable counts without reducing the total count. readers who are interested in further details on the generation of this in silico model for the dynamics of mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, as well as the complete details of the parameters/variables considered, and the comprehensive findings of the study, should refer to the article of ernesto et al. published in infection and immunity. another one of the many notable works in the domain of infectious disease in silico modeling is the study by navratil et al. (2011) . using protein-protein interaction data that the authors obtained from available literature and public databases, they (after first curating and validating the data) computationally (in silico) re-examined the virus-human protein interactome. interestingly, the authors were able to show that the onset and pathogenesis of some disease conditions (especially chronic disease conditions) often believed to be of genetic, lifestyle, or environmental origin, are, in fact, modulated by infectious agents. models have been constructed to simulate bacterial dynamics, such as growth under various nutritional and chemical conditions, chemotactic response, and interaction with host immunity. clinically important models of bacterial dynamics relating to peritoneal dialysis, pulmonary infections, and particularly of antibiotic treatment and bacterial resisitance, have also been developed. baccam et al. (2006) utilized a series of mathematical models of increasing complexity that incorporated target cell limitation and the innate interferon response. the models were applied to examine influenza a virus kinetics in the upper respiratory tracts of experimentally infected adults. they showed the models to be applicable for improving the understanding of influenza in a virus infection, and estimated that during an upper respiratory tract infection, the influenza virus initially spreads rapidly with one cell, infecting (on average) about 20 others (daun and clermont, 2007) . model parameter and spread of disease: model parameters are one of the main challenges in mathematical modeling since all models do not have a physiological meaning. sensitivity analysis and bifurcation analysis give us the opportunity to understand how model outcome and model parameters are correlated, how the sensitivity of the system is with respect to certain parameters, and the uncertainty in the model outcome yielded by the uncertainties in the parameter values. uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the input parameters play in the basic productive rate (ro) of severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) and tuberculosis. control of the outbreak depends on identifying the disease parameters that are likely to lead to a reduction in r. difficulty in finding the most appropriate set of parameters for in silico modeling of infectious diseases is often a challenge. it is hoped this challenge will subside with the advancement in infectonomics and high-throughput technology. however, another important challenge lies in the understanding (and the provision of reasonable interpretations for) the results from all the complex interactions of parameters considered. in this sub-section we focus on the application of in silico modeling to improve knowledge of neuronal diseases, and thus improve the applications of neurological knowledge for solving neuronal health problems. it is not an overstatement to say that one of the many aspects of life sciences where in silico disease modeling would have the biggest applications is in the better understanding of the pathophysiology of nervous system (neuronal) diseases. this is basically because of the inherent delicate nature of the nervous system and the usual extra need to be sure of how to proceed prior to attempting to treat neuronal disease conditions. by this we mean that the need to first model neuronal disease conditions in silico prior to deciding on or suggesting (for example) a treatment plan is, in fact, rising. this is not unexpected; after all, it is better to be sure of what would work (say, through in silico modeling) than to try what would not work. obtaining appropriate parameters for the in silico modeling of a nervous system (neuronal) disease is rooted in a good understanding of the pathophysiology of such neuronal disease. since comprehensive details of pathophysiology of neuronal diseases is beyond the scope of this book, we only present the basic idea that would allow the reader to understand how in silico modeling of a nervous system (neuronal) disease can be done. to give a generalized explanation and still concisely present the basic ideas underlying the pathophysiology of neuronal diseases, we proceed by systematically categorizing the mediators of neuronal disease pathophysiology: (1) nerve cell characteristics, (2) signaling chemicals and body electrolytes, (3) host/organism factors, and (4) environmental factors. readers need to see all these categories as being highly integrated pathophysiologically rather than as separate entities, and also that we have only grouped them this way to make simpler the explanation of how the parameters for in silico modeling of neuronal diseases are generated. when something goes wrong with (or there is a marked deviation from equilibrium in) a component of any of the four categories above, the other components (within and/ or outside the same category) try hard to make adjustments so as to annul/compensate for the undesired change. for example, if the secretion of a chemical signal suddenly becomes abnormally low, the target cells for the chemical signal may develop mechanisms to use the signaling chemical more efficiently, and the degradation rate of the signaling chemical may be reduced considerably. through these, the potentially detrimental effects of reduced secretion of the chemical signal are annulled via compensation from the other components. this is just a simple example; much more complex regulatory and homeostatic mechanisms exist in the neuronal system. despite the robustness of those mechanisms, things still get out of hand sometimes, and disease conditions result. the exploration of what happens in (and to) each and all of the components of this giant system of disease conditions is called the pathophysiology of neuronal disease, and it this pathophysiology that "provides" parameters for the in silico modeling of neuronal diseases. some of the important parameters (that are of nerve cell origin) for a typical in silico modeling of a neuronal disease (say, alzheimer's disease) are the population (or relative population) of specific neuronal cells (such as glial cells: microglia, astrocytes, etc.), motion of specific neuronal cells (e.g. microglia), amyloid production, aggregation and removal of amyloid, morphology of specific neuronal cells, status of neuronal cell receptors, generation/regeneration/ degeneration rate of neuronal cells, status of ion neuronal cell channels, etc. based on their relevance to the pathophysiology of the neuronal disease being studied, many of these parameters are often considered in the in silico modeling of the neuronal disease. more importantly, their spatiotemporal dynamics are often seriously considered. the importance of signaling chemicals and electrolytes in the nervous system makes parameters related to them very important. the secretion, uptake, degradation, and diffusion rates of various neurotransmitters and cytokines are often important parameters in the in silico modeling of neurodiseases. other important parameters are the concentration gradients of the various neurotransmitters and cytokines, the availability and concentration of second messengers, and the electrolyte status/balance of the cells/systems. the spatiotemporal dynamics of all of these are also often seriously considered. the parameters under host/organism factors can be highly varied depending on the intentions and the assumptions governing the in silico disease modeling. nonetheless, one could basically group and list the parameters collectively under genotype (based on the allele at a specified genetic locus), nutritional status (feeding habits/food intake characteristics; e.g. daily calories, protein intake, etc.), gender (male or female), age, and behavior (host's behaviors/lifestyle that influences homeostasis and/or responses to stimuli). a few examples of these parameters are ambient temperature, altitude, light-dark cycle, social network, type of influences from people in the network, etc. just like other in silico models, a neuronal disease in silico model is also based on what could be viewed as a single giant functional equation, which is composed of highly integrated simpler functional equations. so the equations behind a typical neuronal disease in silico model could take the form (equation 21.5): where n could be a parameter that is a direct measure of the disease manifestation; î² is a constant; f, g, j, and k are link functions which may be the same or different from other link functions in this system of equations; c, s, h, and e are the outputs from smaller equations that are based on parameters from neuronal cell characteristics, signaling molecule and electrolyte parameters, host parameters, and environment parameters, respectively; and æ� is a random error parameter. the reader should know that each of n, c, s, h and e could have resulted from smaller equations that could take forms similar to those (equations 21.2 to 21.4) described under in silico modeling of infectious diseases (previous sub-section). in silico models edelstein-keshet and spiros (2002) used in silico modeling to study the mechanism and/formation of alzheimer's disease. the target of their in silico modeling was to explore and demystify how various parts implicated in the etiology and pathophysiology of alzheimer's disease work together as a whole. employing the strength of in silico modeling, the researchers were able to transcend the difficulty of identifying detailed disease progression scenarios, and they were able to test a wide variety of hypothetical mechanisms at various levels of detail. readers interested in the complete details of the assumptions that govern in silico modeling of alzheimer's disease, the various other aspects of the model, and more detailed accounts of the findings should look at the article by edelstein-keshet and spiros. several other interesting studies have applied in silico modeling techniques to investigate various neuronal diseases. a few examples include the work of altmann and boyton (2004) , who investigated multiple sclerosis (a very common disease resulting from demyelination in the central nervous system) using in silico modeling techniques; lewis et al. (2010) , who used in silico modeling to study the metabolic interactions between multiple cell types in alzheimer's disease; and raichura et al. (2006) , who applied in silico modeling techniques to dynamically model alpha-synuclein processing in normal and parkinson's disease states. a more specific example of a molecular level in silico alzheimer's disease model can be found in ghosh et al. (2010) . among the amyloid proteins, amyloid-î² (aî²) peptides (aî²42 and aî²40) are known to form aggregates that deposit as senile plaques in the brains of alzheimer's disease patients. the process of aî²-aggregation is strongly nucleation-dependent, and is inferred by the occurrence of a "lag-phase" prior to fibril growth that shows a sigmoidal pattern. ghosh et al. (2010) dissected the growth curve into three biophysically distinct sections to simplify modeling and to allow the data to be experimentally verifiable. stage i is where the pre-nucleation events occur whose mechanism is largely unknown. the pre-nucleation stage is extremely important in dictating the overall aggregation process where critical events such as conformation change and concomitant aggregation take place, and it is also the most experimentally challenging to decipher. in addition to mechanistic reasons, this stage is also physiologically important as lowmolecular-weight (lmw) species are implicated in ad pathology. the rate-limiting step of nucleation is followed by growth. the overall growth kinetics and structure and shape of the fibrils are mainly determined by the structure of the nucleating species. an important intermediate along the aggregation pathway, called "protofibrils," have been isolated and characterized that have propensities to both elongate (by monomer addition) as well as to laterally associate (protofibril-protofibril association) to grow into mature fibrils (stage iii in the growth curve). aggregation ghosh et al. (2010) generated an ode-based molecular simulation (using mass-kinetics methodology) of this fibril growth process to estimate the rate constants involved in the entire pathway. the dynamics involved in the protofibril elongation stage of the aggregation (stage iii of the process) were estimated and validated by in vitro biophysical analysis. ghosh et al. (2010) next used the rate constants identified from stage iii to create a complete aggregation pathway simulation (combining stages i, ii, and iii) to approximately identify the nucleation mass involved in aî²-aggregation. in order to model the aî²-system, one needs to estimate the rate constants involved in the complete pathway and the nucleation mass itself. it is difficult to iterate through different values for each of these variables to get close to the experimental plots (fibril growth curves measured via fluorescence measurements with time) due to the large solution space; also, finding the nucleation phase cannot be done independently without estimating the rate constants alongside. however, having separately estimated the post-nucleation stage rate constants (as mentioned above) reduces the overall parameter estimation complexity. the complete pathway simulation was used to study the lag times associated with the aggregation pathway, and hence predict possible estimates of the nucleation mass. the following strategy was used: estimate the pre-nucleation rate constants that give the maximum lag times for each possible estimate of the nucleation mass. this led to four distinctly different regimes of possible nucleation masses corresponding to four different pairs of rate constants for the pre-nucleation phase (regime 1, where n = 7, 8, 9, 10, 11; regime 2, where n = 12, 13, 14; regime 3, where n = 15, 16, 17; and regime 4, where n = 18, 19, 20, 21) . however, it was experimentally observed that the semi-log plot of the lag times against initial concentration of aî² is linear, and this characteristic was used to figure out what values of nucleation mass are most feasible for the aî²42-aggregation pathway. the simulated plots show a more stable relationship between the lag times and the initial concentrations, and the best predictions for the nucleation mass were reported to be in the range 10-16. such molecular pathway level studies are extremely useful in understanding the pathogenesis of ad in general, and can motivate drug development exercises in the future. for example, characterization of the nucleation mass is important as it has been observed that various fatty acid interfaces can arrest the fibril growth process (by stopping the reactions beyond the pre-nucleation stage). such in depth modeling of the aggregation pathway can suggest what concentrations of fatty acid interfaces should be used (under a given aî² concentration in the brain) to arrest the fibril formation process leading to direct drug dosage and interval prediction for ad patients. despite the fact that we have mentioned several possible parameters for in silico modeling of neuro-diseases, it is noteworthy that finding a set of the most reasonable parameters for the modeling is in fact a big challenge. on the other hand, understanding (and thus finding reasonable biological interpretations for) the results from the complex interaction of all parameters considered is also a big challenge. in addition, a number of assumptions that models are sometimes based on still have controversial issues. accurately modeling spatio-temporal dynamics of neurons and neurotransmitters (and other chemicals/ligands) also constitutes a huge challenge. understanding the complex systems involved in a disease will make it possible to develop smarter therapeutic strategies. treatments for existing tumors will use multiple drugs to target the pathways or perturbed networks that show an altered state of activity. in addition, models can effectively form the basis for translational research and personalized medicine. biological function arises as the result of processes interacting across a range of spatiotemporal scales. the ultimate goal of the applications of bioinformatics in systems biology is to aid in the development of individualized therapy protocols to minimize patient suffering while maximizing treatment effectiveness. it is now being increasingly recognized that multi-scale mathematical and computational tools are necessary if we are going to be able to fully understand these complex interactions (e.g. in cancer and heart diseases). with the bioinformatics tools, computational theories, and mathematical models introduced in this article, readers should be able to dive into the exhilarating area of formal computational systems biology. investigating these models and confirming their findings by experimental and clinical observations is a way to bring together molecular reductionism with quantitative holistic approaches to create an integrated mathematical view of disease progression. we hope to have shown that there are many interesting challenges yet to be solved, and that a structured and principled approach is essential for tackling them. systems biology is an emerging field that aims to understand biological systems at the systems level with a high degree of mathematical and statistical modeling. in silico modeling of infectious diseases is a rich and growing field focused on modeling the spread and containment of infections with model designs being flexible and enabling adaptation to new data types. the advantages of avoiding animal testing have often been seen as one of the advantages offered by in silico modeling; the biggest advantage is that there are no ethical issues in performing in silico experiments as they don't require any animals or live cells. furthermore, as the entire modeling and analysis are based on computational approaches, we can obtain the results of such analysis even within an hour. this saves huge amounts of time and reduces costs, two major factors associated with in vitro studies. however, a key issue that needs to be considered is whether in silico testing will ever be as accurate as in vitro or in vivo testing, or whether in silico results will always require non-simulated experimental confirmation. tracqui et al. (1995) successfully developed a glioma model to show how chemo-resistant tumor sub-populations cause treatment failure. similarly, a computational model of tumor invasion by frieboes et al. (2006) is able to demonstrate that the growth of a tumor depends on the microenvironmental nutrient status, the pressure of the tissue, and the applied chemotherapeutic drugs. the 3d spatio-temporal simulation model of a tumor by dionysiou et al. (2004) was able to repopulate, expand, and shrink tumor cells, thus providing a computational approach for assessment of radiotherapy outcomes. the glioblastoma model of kirby et al. (2007) is able to predict survival outcome post-radiotherapy. wu et al. (2012) has also developed an in silico glioma microenvironment that demonstrates that targeting the microenvironmental components could be a potential anti-tumor therapeutic approach. the in silico model-based systems biology approach to skin sensitization (tnf-alpha production in the epidermis) and risk of skin allergy assessment has been successfully carried out; it can replace well known in vitro assays, such as the mouse local lymph node assay (llna) used for the same purpose (by maxwell and mackay (2008) at the unilever safety and environmental assurance centre). similarly, davies et al. (2011) effectively demonstrated an in silico skin permeation assay based on time course data for application in skin sensitization risk assessment. kovatchev et al. (2012) showed how the in silico model of alcohol dependence can provide virtual clues for classifying the physiology and behavior of patients so that personalized therapy can be developed. pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics are used to study absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (adme) of administered drugs. in silico models have tremendous efficacy in early estimation of various adme properties. quantitative structure-activity relationship (qsar) and quantitative structure-property relationship (qspr) models have been commonly used for several decades to predict adme properties of a drug at early phases of development. there are several in silico models applied in adme analysis, and readers are encouraged to read the review by van de waterbeemd and gifford (2003) . gastroplusâ�¢, developed at simulations plus (www.simulations-plus.com), is highly advanced, physiologically based rapid pharmacokinetic (pbpk) simulation software that can generate results within 5 seconds, thus saving huge amounts of time and cost in clinical studies. the software is an essential tool to formulation scientists for in vitro dose disintegration and dissolution studies. towards next-generation treatment of spinal cord injuries, novartis (www.novartis. com) is working to model the human spinal cord and its surrounding tissues in silico to check the feasibility of monoclonal antibody-based drug administration and their pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics study results. the in silico "drug re-purposing" approach by bisson et al. (2007) demonstrated how phenothiazine derivative antipsychotic drugs such as acetophenazine can cause endocrine side effects. recently aguda et al. (2011) reported a computational model for sarcoidosis dynamics that is useful for pre-clinical therapeutic studies for assessment of dose optimization of targeted drugs used to treat sarcoidosis. towards designing personalized therapy of larynx injury leading to acute vocal fold damage, li et al. (2008) developed agent-based computational models. in a further advancement, entelos â® (www.entelos.com) has developed "virtual patients," in silico mechanistic models of type-2 diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, hypertension, and atherosclerosis for identification of biomarkers, drug targets, development of therapeutics, and clinical trial design, and patient stratification. entelos' virtual idd9 mouse (nod mouse) can replace diabetes resistance type-1 diabetes live mice for various in vivo experiments. apart from diseases, systems level modeling of basic biological phenomena and their applications in disease have also been reported. an in silico model to mimic the in vitro rolling, activation, and adhesion of individual leukocytes has been developed by tang et al. (2007) . developing virtual mitochondria, cree et al. (2008) vi p r ( h t t p : / / w w w. v i p r b r c . o rg / b r c / h o m e . d o ? decorator=vipr) is one of the five bioinformatics resource centers (brcs) funded by the national institute of allergy and infectious diseases (niaid). this website provides a publicly available database and a number of computational analysis tools to search and analyze data for virus pathogens. some of the tools available at vipr are the following: 1. gatu (genome annotation transfer utility), a tool to transfer annotations from a previously annotated reference to a new, closely related target genome. 2. pcr premier design, a tool for designing pcr primers. 3. a sequence format conversion tool. 4. a tool to identify short peptides in proteins. a meta-driven comparative analysis tool. as there are many different kinds of tools available the tools on the website are organized by the virus family. the rat genome database (rgd) the rat genome database (http://rgd.mcw.edu/wg/ home) is funded by the national heart, lung, and blood institute (nhlbi) of the national institutes of health (nih). the goal of this project is to consolidate research work from various institutes to generate and maintain a rat genomic database (and make it available to the scientific community). the website provides a variety of tools to analyze data. influenza resource centers (brcs) funded by the national institute of allergy and infectious diseases (niaid). this website provides a publicly available database and a number of computational analysis tools to search and analyze data for influenza virus. this website provides many of the same tools that are provided at vibr. there are numerous other tools such as models of infectious disease agent study (midas), which is an in silico model for assessing infectious disease dynamics. midas assists in preparing, detecting, and responding to infectious disease threats. the wellcome trust sanger institute the sanger institute (http://www.sanger.ac.uk/) investigates genomes in the study of diseases that have an impact on global health. the sanger institute has made a significant contribution to genomic research and developing a new understanding of genomes and their role in biology. the website provides sequence genomes for various bacterial, viral, and model organisms such as zebrafish, mouse, gorilla, etc. a number of open source software tools for visualizing and analyzing data sets are available at the sanger institute website. an in silico modeling approach to understanding the dynamics of sarcoidosis models of multiple sclerosis. autoimmune diseases kinetics of influenza a virus infection in humans discovery of antiandrogen activity of nonsteroidal scaffolds of marketed drugs using a mammalian cell cycle simulation to interpret differential kinase inhibition in antitumour pharmaceutical development in silico models for cellular and molecular immunology: successes, promises and challenges introduction to systems biology a reduction of mitochondrial dna molecules during embryogenesis explains the rapid segregation of genotypes from data banks to data bases in silico modeling in infectious disease determining epidermal disposition kinetics for use in an integrated nonanimal approach to skin sensitization risk assessment a four-dimensional simulation model of tumour response to radiotherapy in vivo: parametric validation considering radiosensitivity, genetic profile and fractionation in silico models of cancer mathematical modeling of radiotherapy strategies for early breast cancer exploring the formation of alzheimer's disease senile plaques in silico in silico pharmacology for drug discovery: methods for virtual ligand screening and profiling farm animal genomics and informatics: an update an integrated computational/experimental model of tumor invasion dynamics of protofibril elongation and association involved in abeta42 peptide aggregation in alzheimer's disease bioinformatics enrichment tools: paths toward the comprehensive functional analysis of large gene lists mathematical modeling of avascular tumour growth based on diffusion of nutrients and its validation in silico models of alcohol dependence and treatment large-scale in silico modeling of metabolic interactions between cell types in the human brain a patient-specific in silico model of inflammation and healing tested in acute vocal fold injury application of a systems biology approach to skin allergy risk assessment agent-based model of inflammation and wound healing: insights into diabetic foot ulcer pathology and the role of transforming growth factor-î²1. wound repair regeneration replication dynamics of mycobacterium tuberculosis in chronically infected mice when the human viral infectome and diseasome networks collide: towards a systems biology platform for the aetiology of human diseases dynamic modeling of alphasynuclein aggregation for the sporadic and genetic forms of parkinson's disease physiological studies in silico computational and experimental models of ca2+-dependent arrhythmias dynamics of in silico leukocyte rolling, activation, and adhesion whole-cell simulation: a grand challenge of the 21st century a mathematical model of glioma growth: the effect of chemotherapy on spatio-temporal growth computational cardiology: the heart of the matter a survey of available tools and web servers for analysis of protein-protein interactions and interfaces admet in silico modelling: towards prediction paradise? translational systems biology of inflammation bioinformatics applications for pathway analysis of microarray data bayesian analysis of signaling networks governing embryonic stem cell fate decisions in silico experimentation of glioma microenvironment development and anti-tumor therapy development of a three-dimensional multiscale agent-based tumor model: simulating gene-protein interaction profiles, cell phenotypes and multicellular patterns in brain cancer further reading silico' simulation of biological processes silico toxicology: principles and applications multiscale cancer modeling silico immunology silico: 3d animation and simulation of cell biology with maya and mel algorithm any well-defined computational procedure that takes some values, or set of values, as input, and produces some value, or set of values, as output. bioinformatics bioinformatics is the application of statistics and computer science to the field of molecular biology. biotechnology the exploitation of biological processes for industrial and other purposes. data structures a way to store and organize data on a computer in order to facilitate access and modifications. genome the complete set of genetic material of an organism. genomics the branch of molecular biology concerned with the structure, function, evolution, and mapping of genomes. gene ontology a major bioinformatics initiative to unify the representation of gene and gene product attributes across all species. informatics the science of processing data for storage and retrieval; information science. in silico in silico is an expression used to mean "performed on a computer or via computer simulation." in vivo in microbiology in vivo is often used to refer to experimentation done in live isolated cells rather than in a whole organism. in vitro in vitro studies in experimental biology are those that are conducted using components of an organism that have been isolated from their usual biological surroundings in order to permit a more detailed or more convenient analysis than can be done with whole organisms. kinomics kinomics is the study of kinase signaling within cellular or tissue lysates. oncogenesis the progression of cytological, genetic, and cellular changes that culminate in a malignant tumor. pathophysiology the disordered physiological processes associated with disease or injury. proteomics the branch of genetics that studies the full set of proteins encoded by a genome. sequencing the process of determining the precise order of nucleotides within a dna molecule. systems biology an inter-disciplinary field of study that focuses on complex interactions within biological systems by using a more holistic perspective. 1. the template-based transcriptional control network reconstruction method exploits the principle that orthologous proteins regulate orthologous target genes. in this approach, regulatory interactions are transferred from a genome (such as a genome of a model organism or well studied organism) to the new genome. 2. the ultimate goal of in silico modeling in biology is the detailed understanding of the function of molecular networks as they appear in metabolism, gene regulation, or signal transduction. there are two major challenges in modeling infectious diseases: a. difficulty in finding the most appropriate set of parameters for the in silico modeling of infectious diseases is often a challenge. b. understanding the results from all the complex interactions of parameters considered. 4. there are three types of cancer models. continuum models: in these models extracellular parameters can be represented as continuously distributed variables to mathematically model cell-cell or cell-environment interactions in the context of cancers and the tumor microenvironment. discrete models: these models represent cancer cells as discrete entities of defined location and scale, interacting with one another and external factors in discrete time intervals according to predefined rules. hybrid models: these models incorporate both continuum and discrete variables in a modular approach. there are three types of parameters considered for in silico modeling of infectious diseases: a. parameters derived from characteristics of agent: examples: concentration of the agent's antigen-host antibody complex; case fatality rate; strain of the agent; other genetic information of the agent; etc. examples: the total white blood cell counts; differential white blood cell counts, and/or much more sophisticated counts of specific blood cell types; blood levels of some specific cytokines, hormones, and/or neurotransmitters; daily calories, protein, and/or fat intake; daily amount of energy expended and/or duration of exercise; etc. c. parameters derived from characteristics of environment: examples: host's ambient temperature; host's ambient atmospheric humidity; altitude; host's lightdark cycle; etc. key: cord-103435-yufvt44t authors: van aalst, marvin; ebenhöh, oliver; matuszyńska, anna title: constructing and analysing dynamic models with modelbase v1.0 a software update date: 2020-10-02 journal: biorxiv doi: 10.1101/2020.09.30.321380 sha: doc_id: 103435 cord_uid: yufvt44t background computational mathematical models of biological and biomedical systems have been successfully applied to advance our understanding of various regulatory processes, metabolic fluxes, effects of drug therapies and disease evolution or transmission. unfortunately, despite community efforts leading to the development of sbml or the biomodels database, many published models have not been fully exploited, largely due to lack of proper documentation or the dependence on proprietary software. to facilitate synergies within the emerging research fields of systems biology and medicine by reusing and further developing existing models, an open-source toolbox that makes the overall process of model construction more consistent, understandable, transparent and reproducible is desired. results and discussion we provide here the update on the development of modelbase, a free expandable python package for constructing and analysing ordinary differential equation-based mathematical models of dynamic systems. it provides intuitive and unified methods to construct and solve these systems. significantly expanded visualisation methods allow convenient analyses of structural and dynamic properties of the models. specifying reaction stoichiometries and rate equations, the system of differential equations is assembled automatically. a newly provided library of common kinetic rate laws highly reduces the repetitiveness of the computer programming code, and provides full sbml compatibility. previous versions provided functions for automatic construction of networks for isotope labelling studies. using user-provided label maps, modelbase v1.0 streamlines the expansion of classic models to their isotope-specific versions. finally, the library of previously published models implemented in modelbase is continuously growing. ranging from photosynthesis over tumour cell growth to viral infection evolution, all models are available now in a transparent, reusable and unified format using modelbase. conclusion with the small price of learning a new software package, which is written in python, currently one of the most popular programming languages, the user can develop new models and actively profit from the work of others, repeating and reproducing models in a consistent, tractable and expandable manner. moreover, the expansion of models to their label specific versions enables simulating label propagation, thus providing quantitative information regarding network topology and metabolic fluxes. mathematical models are accepted as valuable tools in advancing biological and medical research [1, 2] . in particular, models based on ordinary differential equations (ode) found their application in a variety of fields. most recently, deterministic models simulating the dynamics of infectious diseases gained the interest of the general public during our combat of the covid-19 pandemic, when a large number of ode based mathematical models has been developed and discussed even in nonscientific journals (see for example [3] [4] [5] ). such focus on mathematical modelling is not surprising, because computational models allow for methodical investigations of complex systems under fixed, controlled and reproducible conditions. hence, the effect of various perturbations of the systems in silico can be inspected systematically. importantly, long before exploring their predictive power, the model building process itself plays an important role in integrating and systematising vast amounts of available information [6] . properly designed and verified computational models can be used to develop hypotheses to guide the design of new research experiments (e.g., in immunology to study lymphoid tissue formation [7] ), support metabolic engineering efforts (e.g., identification of enzymes to enhance essential oil production in peppermint [8] ), contribute to tailoring medical treatment to the individual patient in the spirit of precision medicine (e.g., in oncology [2] ), or guide political decision making and governmental strategies (see the review on the impact of modelling for european union policy [9] ). considering their potential impact, it is crucial that models are openly accessible so that they can be verified and corrected, if necessary. in many publications, modelling efforts are justified by the emergence of extraordinary amounts of data provided by new experimental techniques. however, arguing for the necessity of model construction only because a certain type or amount of data exists, ignores several important aspects. firstly, computational models are generally a result of months, if not years, of intense research, which involves gathering and sorting information, simplifying numerous details and distilling out the essentials, implementing the mathematical description in computer code, carrying out performance tests and, finally, validation of the simulation results. our understanding of many phenomena could become deeper if instead of constructing yet another first-generation model, we could efficiently build on the knowledge that was systematically collected in previously developed models. secondly, the invaluable knowledge generated during the model construction process is often lost, mainly because of the main developer leaves the research team, but also due to unfavourable funding strategies. it is easier to obtain research funds for the construction of novel, even if perfunctory models, than to support a long-term maintenance of existing ones. preservation of the information collected in the form of a computational model has became an important quest in systems biology, and has been to some extend addressed by the community. development of the systems biology markup language (sbml) [10] for unified communication and storage of biomedical computational models and the existence of the biomodels repository [11] already ensured the survival of constructed models beyond the academic lifetime of their developers or the lifetime of the software used to create them. but a completed model in the sbml format does not allow to follow the logic of model construction and the knowledge generated by the building process is not preserved. such knowledge loss can be prevented by providing simple-to-use toolboxes enforcing a universal and readable form of constructing models. we have therefore decided to develop modelbase [12] , a python package that encourages the user to actively engage in the model building process. on the one hand we fix the core of the model construction process, while on the other hand the software does not make the definitions too strict, and fully integrates the model construction process into the python programming language. this differentiates our software from 2/13 many available python-based modelling tools (such as scrumpy [13] or pysces [14] ) and other mathematical modelling languages (recently reviewed from a software engineering perspective by schölzel and colleagues [15] ). we report here new features in modelbase v1.0, developed over the last two years. we have significantly improved the interface to make model construction easier and more intuitive. the accompanying repository of re-implemented, published models has been considerably expanded, and now includes a diverse selection of biomedical models. this diversity highlights the general applicability of our software. essentially, every dynamic process that can be described by a system of odes can be implemented with modelbase. implementation modelbase is a python package to facilitate construction and analysis of ode based mathematical models of biological systems. version 1.0 introduces changes not compatible with the previous official release 0.2.5 published in [12] . all api changes are summarised in the official documentation hosted by readthedocs. the model building process starts by creating a modelling object in the dedicated python class model and adding to it the chemical compounds of the system. then, following the intuition of connecting the compounds, you construct the network by adding the reactions one by one. each reaction requires stoichiometric coefficients and a kinetic rate law. the latter can be provided either as a custom function or selecting from the newly provided library of rate laws. the usage of this library (ratelaws) reduces the repetitiveness by avoiding boilerplate code. it requires the user to explicitly define reaction properties, such as directionality. this contributes to a systematic and understandable construction process, following the second guideline from the zen of python: "explicit is better than implicit". from this, modelbase automatically assembles the system of odes. it also provides numerous methods to conveniently retrieve information about the constructed model. in particular, the get * methods allow inspecting all components of the model, and calculate reaction rates for given concentration values. these functions have multiple variants to return all common data structures (array, dictionary, data frames). after the model building process is completed, simulation and analyses of the model are performed with the simulator class. currently, we offer interfaces to two integrators to solve stiff and non-stiff ode systems. provided you have installed the assimulo package [16] , as recommended in our installation guide, modelbase will be using cvode, a variable-order, variable-step multi-step algorithm. the cvode class provides a direct connection to sundials, the suite of nonlinear and differential/algebraic equation solvers [17] which is a powerful industrial solver and robust time integrator, with a high computing performance. in case when assimulo is not available, the software will automatically switch to the scipy library [18] using lsoda as an integrator, which in our experience showed a lower computing performance. sensitivity analysis provides a theoretical foundation to systematically quantify effects of small parameter perturbations on the global system behaviour. in particular, metabolic control analysis (mca), initially developed to study metabolic systems, is an important and widely used framework providing quantitative information about the response of the system to perturbations [19, 20] . this new version of modelbase now has a full suite of methods to calculate response coefficients and elasticises, and plotting them as a heat-map, giving a clear and intuitive colour-coded visualisation of the results. an example of such visualisation, for a re-implemented toy model of the upper part of glycolysis (section 3.1.2 [21] ), can be found in figure 1 . many of the available relevant software packages for building computational models restrict the users by providing unmodifiable plotting routines with predefined settings that may not suit your personal preferences. with modelbase v1.0 we constructed our plotting functions allowing the user to pass optional keyword-arguments (often abbreviated as **kwargs), so you still access and change all plot elements, providing a transparent and flexible interface to the commonly used matplotlib library [22] . the easy access functions to visualise the results of simulations were expanded from the previous version. they now include plotting selections of compounds or fluxes, phase-plane analysis and the results of mca. models for isotope tracing modelbase has additionally been developed to aid the in silico analyses of label propagation during isotopic studies. in order to simulate the dynamic distribution of isotopes all possible labelling patterns for all intermediates need to be created. by providing an atom transition map in the form of a list or a tuple, all 2 n isotope-specific versions of a chemical compound are created automatically, where n denotes the number of possibly labelled atoms. changing the name of previous function carbonmap to labelmap in v1.0 acknowledges the diversity of possible labelling experiments that can be reproduced with models built using our software. sokol and portais derived the theory of dynamic label propagation under stationary assumption [23] . in steady state the space of possible solutions is reduced and the labelling dynamics can be represented by a set of linear differential equations. we have used this theory and implemented an additional class linearlabelmodel which allows figure 2 . labelling curves in a linear non-reversible pathway. example of label propagation curves for a linear non-reversible pathway of 5 randomly sized metabolite pools, as proposed in the paper by sokol and portais [23] . circles mark the position at which the first derivative of each labelling curve reaches maximum. in the original paper this information has been used to analyse the label shock wave (lsw) propagation. to reproduce these results run the jupyter notebook from the additional file 2. rapid calculation of the label propagation given the steady state concentrations and fluxes of the metabolites [23] . modelbase will automatically build the linear label model after providing the label maps. such a model is provided in figure 2 , where we simulate label propagation in a linear non-reversible pathway, as in figure 1 in [23] . the linear label models are constructed using modelbase rate laws and hence can be fully exported as sbml file. many models loose their readability due to the inconsistent, intractable or misguided naming of their components (an example is a model with reactions named as v1 -v10, without referencing them properly). by providing meta data for any modelbase object, you can abbreviate component names in a personally meaningful manner and then supply additional annotation information in accordance with standards such as miriam [24] via the newly developed meta data interface. this interface can also be used to supply additional important information compulsorily shared in a publication but not necessarily inside the code, such like the unit of a parameter. with the newly implemented changes our package becomes more versatile and user friendly. as argued before, its strength lies in its flexibility and applicability to virtually any biological system, with dynamics that can be described using an ode system. there exist countless mathematical models of biological and biomedical systems derived using odes. many of them are rarely re-used, at least not to the extent that could be reached, if models were shared in a readable, understandable and reusable way [15] . as our 5/13 package can be efficiently used both for the development of new models, as well as the reconstruction of existing ones, as long as they are published with all kinetic information required for the reconstruction, we hope that modelbase will in particular support users with limited modelling experience in re-constructing already existing work, serving as a starting point for their further exploration and development. we have previously demonstrated the versatility of modelbase by re-implementing mathematical models previously published without the source code: two models of biochemical processes in plants [25, 26] , and a model of the non-oxidative pentose phosphate pathway of human erythrocytes [27, 28] . to present how the software can be applied to study medical systems, we used modelbase to re-implement various models, not published by our group, and reproduced key results of the original manuscripts. it was beyond our focus to verify the scientific accuracy of the corresponding model assumptions. we have selected them to show that despite describing different processes, they all share a unified construct. this highlights that by learning how to build a dynamic model with modelbase, you in fact do not learn how to build a one-purpose model, but expand your toolbox to be capable of reproducing any given ode based model. all examples are available as jupyter notebooks and listed in the additional files. for the purpose of this paper, we surveyed available computational models and subjectively selected a relatively old publication of significant impact, based on the number of citations, published without providing the computational source code, nor details regarding the numerical integration. we have chosen a four compartment model of hiv immunology that investigates the interaction of single virus population with the immune system described only by the cd4 + t cells, commonly known as t helper cells [29] . we have implemented the four odes describing the dynamics of uninfected (t), latently infected (l) and actively infected cd4 + t cells (a) and infectious hiv population (v). we have reproduced the results from figure 3 from the original paper [29] showing the decrease in the overall population of cd4+ t-cell (uninfected + latently infected + actively infected cd4+) over time, depending on the number of infectious particles produced per actively infected cell (n). to reproduce these results run the jupyter notebook from the additional file 3. in the figure 3 , we reproduce the results from fig. 3 from the original paper, where by changing the number of infectious particles produced per actively infected cell (n) we follow the dynamics of the overall t cell population (t+l+a) over a period of 10 years. the model has been further used to explore the effect of azidothymidine, an antiretroviral medication, by decreasing the value of n after 3 years by 25% or 75%, mimicking the blocking of the viral replication of hiv. a more detailed description of the timedependent drug concentration in the body is often achieved with pharmacokinetic models. mathematical models based on a system of differential equations that link the dosing regimen with the dynamics of a disease are called pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (pk-pd) models [30] and with the next example we explore how modelbase can be used to develop such models. the technological advances forced a paradigm shift in many fields of our life, including medicine, making more personalised healthcare not only a possibility but a necessity. a pivotal role in the success of precision medicine will be to correctly determine dosing regimes for drugs [31] and pk-pd models provide a quantitative tool to support this [32] . pk-pd models have proved quite successful in many fields, including oncology [33] and here we used the classical tumour growth model by simeoni and colleagues, originally implemented using the industry standard software winnonlin [34] . as the pharmacokinetic model has not been fully described we reproduced only the highly simplified case, where we assume a single drug administration and investigate the effect of drug potency (k 2 ) on simulated tumour growth curves. in figure 4 we plot the simulation results of the modelbase implementation of the system of four odes over the period of 18 days where we systematically changed the value of k 2 , assuming a single drug administration on day 9. with the mca suite available with our software we can calculate the change of the system in response to perturbation of all other system parameters. such quantitative description of the systems response to local parameter perturbation provides support in further studies of the rational design of combined drug therapy or discovery of new drug targets, as described in the review by cascante and colleagues [35] . finally, compartmental models based on ode systems have a long history of application in mathematical epidemiology [36] . many of them, including numerous recent publications studying the spread of coronavirus, are based on the classic epidemic susceptible-infected-recovered (sir) model, originating from the theories developed by kermack and mckendrick at the beginning of last century [37] . one of the most critical information searched for while simulating the dynamics of infectious disease is the existence of disease free or endemic equilibrium and assessment of its stability [38] . indeed periodic oscillations have been observed for several infectious diseases, including measles, influenza and smallpox [36] . to provide an overview of more modelbase functionalities we have implemented a relatively simple sir model based on the recently published autonomous model for smallpox [39] . we have generated damped oscillations and visualised them using the built-in function plot phase plane (see figure 5 ). in the attached jupyter notebook we present how quickly and efficiently in terms of lines of code, the sir model is built and how to add and remove new reactions and/or compounds to construct further variants of this model, such as a seir (e-exposed) or sird (d-deceased) model. figure 4 . compartmental pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model of tumour growth after anticancer therapy. we have reproduced the simplified version of the pk-pd model of tumour growth, where pk part is reduced to a single input and simulated the effect of drug potency (k 2 ) on tumour growth curves. the system of four odes describing the dynamics of the system visualised on a scheme above is integrated over the period of 18 days. we systematically changed the value of k 2 , assuming a single drug administration on day 9. we have obtained the same results as in the figure 3 in the original paper [34] . to reproduce these results run the jupyter notebook from the additional file 4. sir model with vital dynamics including birth rate has been adapted based on the autonomous model to simulate periodicity of chicken pox outbreak in hida, japan [39] . to reproduce these results run the jupyter notebook from the additional file 5. we are presenting here updates of our modelling software that has been developed to simplify the building process of mathematical models based on odes. modelbase is fully embedded in the python programming language. it facilities a systematic construction of new models, and reproducing models in a consistent, tractable and expandable manner. as odes provide a core method to describe the dynamical systems, we hope that our software will serve as the base for deterministic modelling, hence it's name. with the smoothed interface and clearer description of how the software can be used for medical purposes, such as simulation of possible drug regimens for precision medicine, we expect to broaden our user community. we envisage that by providing the mca functionality, also users new to mathematical modelling will adapt a working scheme where such sensitivity analyses become an integral part of the model development and study. the value of sensitivity analyses is demonstrated by considering how results of such analyses have given rise to new potential targets for drug discovery [35] . we especially anticipate that the capability of modelbase to automatically generate labelspecific models will prove useful in predicting fluxes and label propagation dynamics through various metabolic networks. in emerging fields such as computational oncology, such models will be useful to, e.g., predict the appearance of labels in cancer cells. if you have any questions regarding modelbase, you are very welcome to ask them. it is our mission to enable reproducible science and to help putting the theory into action. project name: modelbase project home page: https://pypi.org/project/modelbase/ operating system(s): platform independent programming language: python other requirements: none licence: gnu general public license (gpl), version 3 any restrictions to use by non-academics: none computational systems biology computational oncology -mathematical modelling of drug regimens for precision medicine effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed covid-19 cases in china an updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-ncov) covid-19 outbreak on the diamond princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures how computational models can help unlock biological systems model-driven experimentation: a new approach to understand mechanisms of tertiary lymphoid tissue formation, function, and therapeutic resolution mathematical modeling-guided evaluation of biochemical, developmental, environmental, and genotypic determinants of essential oil composition and yield in peppermint leaves modelling for eu policy support: impact assessments the systems biology markup language (sbml): a medium for representation and exchange of biochemical network models biomodels database: a repository of mathematical models of biological processes building mathematical models of biological systems with modelbase scrumpy : metabolic modelling with python modelling cellular systems with pysces required characteristics for modeling languages in systems biology: a software engineering perspective. biorxiv sciencedirect assimulo: a unified framework for ode solvers sundials : suite of nonlinear and differential / algebraic equation solvers algorithms for scientific computing in python the control of flux: 2 1 a linear steady-state treatment of enzymatic chains. general properties, control and effector strength systems biology: a textbook matplotlib: a 2d graphics environment theoretical basis for dynamic label propagation in stationary metabolic networks under step and periodic inputs minimum information requested in the annotation of biochemical models (miriam) short-term acclimation of the photosynthetic electron transfer chain to changing light: a mathematical model a mathematical model of the calvin photosynthesis cycle comparison of computer simulations of the f-type and l-type non-oxidative hexose monophosphate shunts with 31p-nmr experimental data from human erythrocytes 13c n.m.r. isotopomer and computersimulation studies of the non-oxidative pentose phosphate pathway of human erythrocytes dynamics of hiv infection of cd4+ t cells modeling of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (pk/pd) relationships: concepts and perspectives precision medicine: an opportunity for a paradigm shift in veterinary medicine hhs public access precision dosing in clinical medicine: present and future different ode models of tumor growth can deliver similar results predictive pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling of tumor growth kinetics in xenograft models after administration of anticancer agents metabolic control analysis in drug discovery and disease the mathematics of infectious diseases a contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics qualitative and bifurcation analysis using an sir model with a saturated treatment function emergence of oscillations in a simple epidemic model with demographic data the authors declare that they have no competing interests. jupyter notebook with the modelbaseimplementation of the minimal pharmacokineticpharmacodynamic (pk-pd)model linking that linking the dosing regimen of an anticancer agent to the tumour growth, proposed by simeoni and colleagues [34] . jupyter notebook with the modelbase implementation of the classic epidemic susceptible-infected-recovered (sir) model parametrised as the autonomous model used to simulate periodicity of chicken pox outbreak in hida, japan [39] . the official documentation is hosted on readthedocs. key: cord-323251-yd29gk7q authors: li, kin fun title: smart home technology for telemedicine and emergency management date: 2012-05-11 journal: j ambient intell humaniz comput doi: 10.1007/s12652-012-0129-8 sha: doc_id: 323251 cord_uid: yd29gk7q with the ageing population, mobility is an important issue and it deters the elderlies to visit health clinics on a regular basis. individuals with disabilities also face the same obstacles for their out-of-home medical visits. in addition, people living in remote areas often do not get the needed health care attention unless they are willing to spend the time, effort and cost to travel. advances in information and telecommunication technologies have made telemedicine possible. using the latest sensor technologies, a person’s vital data can be collected in a smart home environment. the bio-information can then be transferred wirelessly or via the internet to medical databases and the healthcare professionals. using the appropriate sensing apparatus at a smart home setting, patients, elderlies and people with disabilities can have their health signals and information examined on a real-time and archival basis. recovery process can be charted on a regular basis. remote emergency alerts can be intercepted and responded quickly. health deterioration can be monitored closely enabling corrective actions. medical practitioners can therefore provide the necessary health-related services to more people. this paper surveys and compiles the state-of-the-art smart home technologies and telemedicine systems. in the past decade, one of the fastest growing multidisciplinary research areas is telemedicine. many definitions of this term exist depending on the specific context. other terms that often used interchangeably, in conjunction with, or under the umbrella of telemedicine, include telehealthcare, telemonitoring, e-health, e-care, ambient assisted living, smart homecare etc. all these terminologies, though, have the same objectives of delivering remote healthcare to an individual's home and enabling continuous health monitoring and emergency management. the increasing attention given to telemedicine is due to many factors. with unaccommodating transportation, and crowed hospitals and clinics in most cities, it is difficult for the elderlies and physically challenged to venture out of their homes to meet with health professionals for the needed treatment or for their routine clinical check-ups. similarly, healthcare delivery in remote rural areas is a demanding endeavour. having the capability of delivering healthcare services at the patients' home not only saves a great deal in monetary and human resources, but it also reduces response time in emergency situations. this is especially beneficial in the case where a large number of patients can be dealt with via communication technologies quickly from a centralized location without sending medical personnel to their individual homes. telemedicine has drawn worldwide attention in the 2000s as modern technologies have made remote healthcare delivery a reality. within the european community, there were the hhh (home or hospital in heart failure) trials of a low-cost, self-managed home monitoring system for patients with chronic heart failures (pinna et al. 2003) . it was found that monthly home telemonitoring of cardiorespiratory signals being sent to a centralized interactive voice responding system is feasible and patients' compliance is high. the sm4all (smart homes for all) project initiated by the european commission aims to provide a middleware platform for pervasive embedded service in a smart environment (baldoni 2009 ). the objectives of sm4all are to provide dependability, scalability, privacy and security to users with disabilities. the brazilian family health program was initiated for preventive medicine delivered to the lower income population living in remote regions (correia et al. 2008) . the associated borboleta system enables healthcare professionals to use pdas (personal digital assistants) and mobile communication technologies for providing on-site home healthcare and improving the quality of public health services. in the usa, healthcare is a big financial burden for government, employers, and citizens. white et al. (2006) discussed major challenges to improve healthcare quality and concluded that a distributed diagnosis and home healthcare paradigm is the best approach for affordability and quality. germany has an initiative to provide encrypted health data for patients during emergency using electronic health card (dunnebeil et al. 2011) , though there is resistance by some medical professionals mainly due to privacy issues. telemedicine is a multidisciplinary research and application area using advanced technologies in information processing, telecommunication, bio-sensing, and artificial intelligence. specifically, smart environment and technologies play important roles in making home telemedicine feasible. one can view sensors being the foundation and communication networks as the pillars of a building, supporting various telemedicine applications under the roof to facilitate and provide a smart home environment to individuals, as shown in fig. 1 . this work presents a survey of the latest advances in smart environment and home telemedicine. it is an extensively updated version of an earlier work on home telemedicine review (li and li 2011) . in addition, the current focus is on smart environment and emergency management. there exist numerous works in the literature and therefore only representative, technologically innovative, and interesting systems and approaches are presented. to properly introduce smart environment in telemedicine and emergency management, the fundamental technologies, potential applications, their evaluations, and future directions are presented in a sequential coherent perspective. section 2 introduces smart environment enabling technologies including communication, sensor and sensor network. applications of smart telemedicine technologies for specific diseases, emergency management, and the elderly and physically challenged, are presented in sect. 3. target user groups' concerns and healthcare professionals' evaluation of telemedicine and smart homecare systems are discussed in sect. 4. in the concluding sect. 5, challenges, concerns and issues related to smart homecare are considered, and future trends of smart homecare environment are identified. in order to provide telemedicine effectively, various techniques and methodologies from different areas have to be integrated seamlessly into a smart system. this section examines the primary state-of-the-art enabling technologies for smart environment within a homecare setting for telemedicine: communication and associated telehealth standards, sensors, and sensor networks. many telemedicine systems leverage the latest mobile and wireless communication technologies as well as the widely available internet infrastructure to deliver quality services to home patients (castro et al. 2001; bonacina and masseroli 2006; li et al. 2008) . a home patient monitoring system proposed by figueredo and dias (2004) uses a simple rs232 serial interface to connect a mobile phone to patient monitoring devices, and transmits vital signs over the internet to the hospital. vnurse is a system developed by rehunathan et al. (2011) that uses the smart phone platform to provide secure and remote patient monitoring. bio-data in vnurse are collected from a wireless body network and transmitted using mobile networks with ip (internet protocol) connection. multi-agent systems are commonly found in smart telehealth applications. one of the earliest telemedicine projects, the independent lifestyle assistant, incorporates techniques in sensing model, distress situation detection, network response planning and machine learning (haigh et al. 2002) . the assistant is implemented as a multi-agent oriented assistive living architecture. liao et al. (2009) presented a telemonitoring architecture based on mobile agents and they also addressed the issues of reliability, security, and manageability of this platform. bramanti et al. (2010) employed gis (geographical information system) technology to identify the optimal locations of clinics that could provide neurological telemedicine services to patients. a remote-client, servicecenter architecture was proposed that uses 3g/cdma network and the internet to transfer vital sign information and medical analysis reports (zhang et al. 2010) . the web is a common and well-developed medium for communicating monitored and emergency data. raad and yang (2009) used the web for reporting real-time status and actions of a home bound elderly. voice over ip (voip) is another family of technologies and communication protocols that can be used effectively in smart environment and telehealthcare. menkens and kurschl (2010) investigated and evaluated voip enabled communication platforms and proposed a system for regular monitoring as well as providing responsive actions in emergency situations. citing decision and notification delays in typical telemedicine homecare settings, as a result of the large volume of information occupying the limited communication resources and consuming valuable computation resources on the remote server, chen (2010) team designed a smart gateway bridging a home-based wireless senor network and a public communication network. implemented as a standalone embedded system, the gateway is also capable of tracking a patient's health state and providing fast response in emergencies. communication is the foundation of providing telehealthcare in the smart home environment. there are many existing and emerging standards such as the ihe (integrating the healthcare enterprise) recommendations for information exchange (ihe 2012) , and the very popular zigbee (zigbee alliance 2012) that have been used in many smart environment projects (lin and sheng 2008; fraile et al. 2010) . de toledo et al. (2006a, b) argued that in order for e-health to progress, the use of standards in providing plugand-play devices and interoperable modules is necessary. iso/iec 29341 universal plug and play (upnp) device architecture (iso 2012a) is a standard for plug-and-play. lin and sheng (2008) carried out a study of using upnp network protocols to facilitate services in a residential network. park et al. (2011) examined the iso/ieee 11073 point-of-care medical device communication (iso 2012b) and its compatibility to legacy devices. one of the important works related to standards is anagnostaki et al. (2002) development of a codification scheme for vital signs in health information interchange. they also discussed the practical aspect of integrating the proposed scheme into medical devices. jang et al. (2007) provided a noteworthy comparison of the key features, including power, complexity, number of nodes, latency, range, expandability, data rate, security, and audio connection, among the short-range communication protocols: wi-fi ieee 802.11b standard (ieee 2012), zigbee (zigbee alliance 2012), and bluetooth (bluetooth 2012). ultra-wideband radio has also been proven to be effective in a smart home environment (bonato 2010). many research projects have drafted an exhaustive list of sensors to be used in their prototype work such as the tafeta (technology assisted friendly environment for the third age) group's implementation (arcelus et al. 2007 ). tafeta has shown how various sensors can be used effectively for different purposes in a smart home: magnetic switches on doors to monitor entry and exit, thermistor to track temperature, accelerometers on chairs and flooring to measure impact which is indicative of a falling condition, rfid (radio-frequency identification) to assist people with alzheimer or dementia, infrared motion sensor to detect mobility and presence, microphone array to detect abnormal noises and cries for help, smart grab bars with pressure sensors embedded to measure strength and balance trend, and pressure sensitive mats under bed to monitor deviated entry and exit patterns. in a typical smart home telemedicine system, there are two major types of data that need to be collected. the occupant's health state and the environmental information are important parameters to monitor and track. different types of sensors can be used to detect vital signs such as ecg (electrocardiogram) for heart rate, emg (electromyogram) for muscle activities, and blood pressure monitor for hypertension, while accelerometer, microphone, light sensor, air pressure recorder, and humidity indicator can be used to detect motion and location (fraile et al. 2010 ). in addition to signals obtained from sensors that are attached to the body or physical measurement devices in the home, there are other media that could be monitored such as video and sound. though, sound is the preferred medium due to privacy concerns. smart home technology 537 istrate et al. (2006) team developed a sound analysis system to detect and classify alarming sounds in a noisy environment. using wavelet technology to process sound signals, their system achieves good performance comparable to other systems using different monitoring technologies. laydrus et al. (2007) investigated the use of frequency domain features in an automated sound analysis system and was able to achieve over 90 % accuracy in classifying 19 real-world sounds. vacher et al. (2009) presented a sound classification and speech recognition system with microphones placed in the home to detect short sentences or words that may indicate a distress situation. though, fleury et al. (2008) found that screams and distress sentences are difficult to differentiate due to distress sentences are similar to short words. hollosi et al. (2010) devised an acoustic event detection and classification system for ambient assistive living environment and interpreted coughing as an indicator of upcoming illness. pressure sensors have been used extensively in various parts of a smart home. arcelus et al. (2009) installed pressure sensors under the bed and on the floor next to the bed. their collected data include sitting pressure, standing pressure, and the time from sit to stand, which provide valuable information on a patient's mobility and other health-related data. leusmann et al. (2011) used arrays of piezo sensors to implement a sensor floor to track the whereabouts of the home occupants. moreover, data collected can be used to analyze impact patterns in case of fall or other emergency situations. similarly, miao et al. (2009) proposed a fall detection approach based on head tracking using two video cameras. they constructed three-dimensional head position models with unimportant objects and background filtered out. location tracking is an important aspect of providing a smart home environment. global positioning system (gps) has limitation operating indoor. various techniques have been used for indoor position location including the use of cascade correlation network and neural network modeling (chen et al. 2011 ). helal et al. (2003 at the university of florida has been working on the house of matilda project for the past several years. matilda is an in-laboratory mock up house to experiment various innovative ideas for smart home. one of their focuses is location tracking of the elderly by the use of ultrasonic sensor technology. wearable devices have been research extensively in the past decade. with the advances in device miniaturization and communication techniques, wearable devices can serve many different roles in telehealthcare, for instance, as a standalone monitoring device or as a node in a sensor network (hung et al. 2004; axisa et al. 2005; kang et al. 2006) . chaczko et al. (2008) developed a small wearable device that incorporates data storage, display screen, speaker, microphone, gps, rfid and accelerometers. the ability to monitor and locate makes this an ideal device to be installed in various places in the home and on the patient. wang et al. (2007) presented a body piconet based on smart sensor nodes for ecg. their work uses bluetooth technology for in-home data transfer and the internet for network data transfer to a hospital. nag and sharma (2006) presented their work on a wireless smart clothing system that is capable of acquiring ecg, pulse oximetry, body motion/tilt and skin temperature data. bonato (2010) gave an extensive survey and review of the major approaches to implement wearable systems. enabling technologies discussed in that work include miniaturization, lower-power radio, and dedicated operating system, which make body sensor network a reality. instead of focusing on specific or a few signals, multimodal systems are gaining popularity. medjahed et al. (2009) presented a fuzzy logic system utilising a wide range of sensors to recognize activities in a home environment. these sensors include physiological types (cardiac frequency, activity, agitation, posture and fall detection), microphones, infrared, water debit and statechange in appliances. many innovative and non-intrusive approaches have been developed in the past several years. ichihashi and sankai (2007) developed a small 'smart telecom' unit that integrates sensing circuit, digital signal processor, and wireless communication into a device of size 25 by 37 mm. such small devices can monitor one's vital signs without being invasive. kim et al. (2007) developed an integrated home health monitor using a chair as a non-invasive platform. this all-in-one monitor can record ecg, estimate blood pressure, measure blood glucose level and ear temperature. these sampled signals are then transmitted to a home server using zigbee technology, which in turn are transmitted to a healthcare center via the internet. ho et al. (2009) presented a very interesting initiative in an attempt to harvest body temperature and vibrations in the house to power implantable glucose sensors within a wireless home network. ping et al. (2009) home healthcare research project places heavy emphasis on recognizing a patient's emotional state in addition to physical state. facial, vocal, eye-movement, and physiological signals are tracked and analyzed to provide the psychological aspects of a patient's health. hussain and colleagues (2009) explored the integration of rfid and wireless sensor network in a smart home environment. their idea is to use the wireless sensor network for tracking the movement and location of individuals while the identification of a person can be accomplished by the wearing of rfid tags. the separation of these events allows for quick decision-making and responses to various situations. this section presents the major application areas that smart telemedicine plays a dominant role. unlike face-to-face medical consultation, useful information must be derived from the raw data in telemedicine. it is almost impossible for humans to examine this large volume of data manually and to detect any changes. therefore, techniques have to be developed in order to automate the diagnostics and abnormality detection process. this section introduces smart telehealth systems developed for specific illnesses. back in 2000, finkelstein and friedman (2000) presented a home asthma telemonitoring system that has the capability of assisting asthma patients in self-care plans as well as alerting healthcare personnel when distress situation is detected. lau et al. (2002) implemented a multimedia system that employs bio-sensor data, messages and video transmission to allow physicians and patients with shoulder replacement surgery to communicate and monitor the progress. chun et al. (2003) developed a home telemedicine system for cardiac and respiratory disease, diabetes, and hypertension. using artificial intelligence techniques, this system is capable of providing automated diagnostic and consultation. performance evaluation has shown that the implemented system is a viable alternative to personal monitoring and consultation. rudi and celler (2006) presented an expert telemedicine system that is capable of storing various data and measurement related to diabetes management. in addition to present to medical professionals records associated with individual patients, the system is also capable of recommending insulin dose adjustment to patients. jiang and xie (2009) proposed a telehealth monitoring system that uses data mining techniques to deal with the large volume of biological data. they also utilized association rules to recommend actions to be taken for hypertension. zhang et al. (2009) developed a chronic disease management system using a real-time knowledge base and the case based reasoning approach, together with a web patient monitoring system, to improve the diagnostic of diabetes and hypertension. fergus et al. (2009) developed a body area sensor network intended for physiotherapist's use. this system collects and stores motion data of the home patient, and provides some quantitative assessments of the patient's progress. gobbi et al. (2009) designed a system that addresses issues related to real-time data processing, network architecture, and web-based data management and services. as an automated home monitoring system for lung obstruction, that system was shown to be reliable and efficient. silva et al. (2010) developed an internet-based system for home monitoring of patients with respiratory muscle disorders. they concluded that their system would be a useful tool for the evaluation of inspiratory muscle in telemedicine services, thus reducing the costs of handling these patients. a smart home with technologies to enhance the quality of life of quadriplegia patient was proposed by uzunay and bicakci (2007) . they placed heavy emphasis on the security aspect of their voice activated smart home facilities. to monitor blood flow velocity in a wireless home environment, wu et al. (2011) presented a self-monitoring device to measure blood flow velocity that is integrated in a labview (labview 2012) mobile environment. smart home telemedicine technology is ideal for patient selfmonitoring and quality of life improvement, which are the subjects in the next section. the segments of our population that need quality healthcare the most are the elderly and physically impaired. home telemedicine and telehealthcare systems are the solution to deliver low-cost yet quality services for these individuals. in 2006, the united nation estimated that at least 650 million people have disabilities worldwide (united nation 2006) . there are various types and degrees of disabilities. according to the massachusetts department of elementary and secondary education, the impairments can be classified into communication, emotional, health, intellectual, neurological, physical, and sensory (mdese 2000) . andrich et al. (2006) presented their smart home project with case studies involving people with disabilities in different categories: hemiplegia, paraplegia, quadriplegia, motor impairment, and cognitive impairment. disabled person with the specific type of impairment would require specialised care and tailored smart home technologies. many telehealth and assistive systems have been proposed and are in place for the elderlies. meng et al. (2000) has been working on teleoperated mobile robots via the internet to provide quality healthcare to the elderly. they have also designed robotic pets that are capable of physiological data collection and transmission, as well as simple healthcare tasks (ling et al. 2005) . briere and colleagues (2009) presented a teleoperated mobile robot with videoconferencing capability for in-home telerehabilitation services. vergados et al. (2008 vergados et al. ( , 2010 discussed their inhome project which goal is to provide intelligent ambient assistive living services to elderly people at home for independent living. lim et al. (2010) presented a home healthcare set-top box specially designed for the elderlies. their work focused on standard compatibility and smart home technology 539 adherence to the iso/ieee 11073 personal health data standard. vinjumur et al. (2010) implemented a web-based medicine management system that uses rfid tags to monitor medication intake for the elderly at home. with multimodal signal sampling, it is imperative to incorporate data fusion techniques in telehealth monitoring and decision-making. virone et al. (2003) investigated data fusion of collected video and sound signals in the monitoring of elderly patients at home. medjahed's group focused on data fusion of multi-senor inputs to provide medical recommendation using a rule based approach (medjahed et al. 2011) . artificial intelligence techniques play a major role in smart home systems. papamatthaiakis and colleagues (2010) presented an indoor activity recognition system for the elderlies. using association rules and allen's temporal relations, they claimed a 100 % recognition rate in identifying everyday activity such as bathing, preparing meals, doing laundry, etc. the mavhome project aims to provide a smart and adaptive environment for inhabitants (jakkula et al. 2007) . in order to meet the goals of comfort and efficiency in mavhome, health trend monitoring and prediction are made using support vector machine and forecasting tools based on time series data collected in a sensor network. huo et al. (2009) presented a healthcare environment for the elderlies using a home sensor network and a body sensor network. the interesting aspects of this work lie in the functionalities provided, including outdoor monitoring, and emergency decision and alarms. various communication techniques, such as automated telephone call, sms and email, are integrated into the system, transmitting emergency signals to caregivers and family members. smart decision-making using hidden markov model is proposed to speed up the decision process, increase the accuracy of event detection, minimise measurement errors, and correct transmission errors. franco et al. (2010) proposed the use of passive infrared sensors placed in the living quarters of an elderly person to detect abnormal changes in behavior. this system would allow early admission of dependent care for those who show a shift in daily routine, for example, individuals with alzheimer disease. the monitoring of behavioural changes is an area of interest in telehealth since the onset of certain alarming situations could be detected and healthcare professionals could then be notified. the next section focuses on using smart healthcare system to handle emergency. emergency planning and management with respect to inhome healthcare has been a vigorously research topic. rosen et al. (2002) proposed the cybercare system to handle national scale disasters. taking a military approach to map strategy, operations and technology to the healthcare realm of policy, functionality and network infrastructure technologies, they argued the necessity of a nation-wide support information infrastructure to cope with disaster, and of incorporating surge-capacity into a national disaster response system. citing the fact that the patients who receive critical emergency services often are not the actual victims of the disaster or outbreak such as sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome), joseph et al. (2005) developed a home healthcare disaster planning, recovery, and management system to facilitate treatment of the actual victims. by integrating in-home intelligent devices to provide timely measured information to public offices such as red cross, local police etc., they reasoned that the medical personnel can provide homecare remotely and deal with a mass-scale epidemic and natural disasters appropriately. smart environment not only can be used in a home environment but can also be used outdoor. smalls et al. (2009) devised a health monitoring system for use in mass causality emergency situations. by placing a health monitoring device on the body of a victim and integrating this node to a wireless ad-hoc network, vital signs of the victim can be transmitted to regional and national emergency response institutions. this is particular useful in cases where infrastructures are non-operational due to catastrophic disaster or when communication channels are overwhelmed by emergency requests. advances in wireless technology have driven down the cost of ad-hoc networks, and with fewer attending field personnel, smalls et al.'s approach may prove to be cost effective in the very near future. wouhaybi et al. (2010) also proposed a system with similar objectives but they focused on the reduction of false alarm using a rule-based decision system. a disaster management framework proposed by bessis et al. (2010) integrates various technologies including web services, grid and cloud computing, ad-hoc mobile networks, and wearable and body sensors. their aim is to provide coherent and collective resource utilization and decisionmaking for multiple parties in emergency situations. jang et al. (2007) proposed a system using multiple sensor technologies including bio-sensors to monitor an elderly's daily physiological status. many services are provided to the patient including early warning due to a change of health status, advice for health improvement, and appointment with specific medical practitioners. in addition to sensors, an active robot that provides services to human is part of a smart assistive environment proposed by lin et al. (2009) . using multimodal observations to recognize voice and other events, their project shows that health predictions, evaluations, and decisions become more reasonable in the evaluation of emergency level and the assistance required in critical events. in one of the early studies, de lunsignan et al. (2000) examined the effectiveness of a home cardiopulmonary monitoring system. this system collects various vital measures via sensors attached to the body and transmits the data wirelessly to a nearby unit at the patient's home. the data are then transferred to a centralised monitoring station. they found the system is acceptable to patients, functionally satisfactory in the home environment, and very reliable in the collection of objective data. capomolla et al. (2004) monitored patients with chf (chronic heart failure) either under usual care or telemonitoring care. their study showed that home telemonitoring is more effective than usual care in reducing healthcare requirements and can improve outcome in chf patients. raju et al. (2004) presented their study on the cost effectiveness of mobile telemedicine applications, and the quality of care and medical error reduction. they reported on their extensive literature search and felt that the findings are inconclusive and well-designed protocols are necessary to conduct further large-scale investigations. zhang and bai (2005) used a queueing model to evaluate the performance of a home ecg and blood pressure monitoring system based on trial data over a 4-month period. their objective was to study the traffic load, response time, and scalability of the system. the results are more than satisfactory and show great potential of the examined monitoring system. de toledo et al. (2006a) reported their experience in using a telemedicine homecare system for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. their results suggest that home telemedicine services provide good support to the healthcare professionals, improve patients' condition, and incur low costs. jasemian (2008) argued that a successful telemedicine application depends on the patient's compliance, trust and comfort in such home-based systems. an experiment was carried out in 2008 with the patients using ecg monitoring device with a real-time wireless system continuously for a long period of time. over half of the participants found the system user friendly, reliable, and usable with acceptable performance. though they found the ecg device heavy and not user-friendly. some have argued that the evaluation of home telehealth information systems should not be assessed simply on grounds of technical innovation but should use a holistic interpretive approach. in 2008, kaldoudi and colleagues (2008) proposed a framework for evaluating home telehealth intervention, together with its application for peritoneal dialysis at home. ojasalo et al. (2010) conducted a study on smart home technologies and services for intellectually disabled. they found that safety technologies are very well received, and the balance of safety and privacy can be addressed by the appropriate technologies. a 2011 study conducted by ziefle et al. (2011) on the acceptance of video monitoring in smart home environment for elderly and disabled reveals that acceptance and users' needs and wants are the main issues in a successful deployment of such home medical monitoring technology. the study also shows that there are serious concerns that data may be altered, illegally accessed, and deleted intentionally or due to system failure or virus attack. beer and takayama (2011) performed a study on elderlies who used a mobile remote presence (mrp) system. this study reveals many interesting issues. benefits of mrp identified by the elderlies include being able to see and be seen with a mrp system, reduction in travel costs and hassles, and a decrease in isolation in a social context. however, concerns raised include mrp usage etiquette, personal privacy, possible overuse, and reliance on the system. though the elderlies in the study are not technologically inclined, they prefer to operate the mrp system by themselves. smart home healthcare and telemedicine systems are here to stay, but there are still many challenges and issues to be resolved. innovation is important to improve the efficiency and effectiveness, and hence acceptance, of these systems. security is major concern in the acceptance of homecare with modern technologies. many research groups have focused on one of the most important issue in telemedicine, that of the integrity and security of transmitted data. simpson et al. (2006) posed several challenging issues regarding continuous home monitoring: who should receive information as the patient, family members, caregivers and medical professionals all have interest; what information should each person receive without violating any data privacy and security concerns; how should information be presented since each party may prefer different mode of communication such as telephone, computer, etc. proposed solutions to the security issue include cryptography (mantas et al. 2009 ) and context-aware access control rules (guennoun and el-khatib 2009). due to the sensitive nature of health information, privacy is an important issue in data transmission and storage in telehealth systems. without proper and established protocols and regulations in place, telemedicine would not be used widely as many people are concerned with the smart home technology 541 privacy of their health information. kotz and colleagues (2009) compared existing privacy frameworks, identified a set of desirable privacy properties in mobile healthcare systems, and used their findings to propose a privacy framework. they also raised several privacy issues and questions that need to be addressed by technical people, governmental agencies and regulatory organisations. reliability is another critical factor in the implementation of smart homecare. wireless technologies make telehealth care possible, however, such networks that operate in hostile outdoor environment have many reliability issues. using rural china as a case study, fong and pecht (2010) identified and reviewed the factors that can impact on the reliability of telehealth care networks: physical obstacles, atmospheric absorption, inadequate fade margin and system failure. gaddam et al. (2008) studied extensively the various issues related to the implementation of sensor networks for home healthcare and emergency. they have identified potential challenges including interoperability and interference, real-time data acquisition and processing, reliability and robustness, energy conservation, data management, data privacy and security, and comfort and unobtrusive operation. in addition, design issues for wireless networks considered are deployment of sensor nodes, mobility of wireless sensor, cost and size of the wireless node, infrastructure of the network, network coverage, network size, power management, life-time of the sensor networks, and quality of service requirements in such networks. since the second-half of the 2000s, there have been numerous reported work and innovation in smart healthcare systems. taylor and dajani (2008) gave a sound argument that the future home healthcare systems should take into consideration a well-balanced implementation infrastructure based on the web, mobile, and broadband technologies. moritz et al. (2009) emphasized the importance of various fundamental issues in using interoperable devices in home healthcare. these issues include energy consumption, power supply, memory, computing power, and bandwidth. koufi and colleagues (2010) implemented a grid portal that provides services to people who need medical advice at their homes. the portal is an integrated system of wireless personal digital assistants (pdas) and grid technology, with heavy design emphasis placed on security access and storage of data. for telehealth, the monitoring of an individual creates a continuous stream of data that must be stored either locally at home or at a centralised database. lasierra et al. (2010 lasierra et al. ( , 2011 used an ontology approach to arrange patient data and records in a formal structure so as to support health information interoperability. invasive devices are being recognised as one of the prime reasons at-home patients are hesitant to use telehealth care monitoring systems. motoi et al. (2010) demonstrated the possibility of using non-invasive technologies for home healthcare. devices are installed on toilets, bathtubs, and beds to measure various vital signals. they deployed this prototyping system for subjects with cardiovascular disease or sleep disorder successfully. modifying and conditioning patient's behaviour is another innovative trend that is gaining attention these days. evers and krose (2010) developed a monitoring system tracking the physical and emotional condition via a sensor network. patients are provided with feedback to promote activities and behaviour with positive health impact. also, the integration of wearable technology and robots is a promising avenue to facilitate therapeutic intervention for chronic conditions, which potentially can reap benefits from these combined technologies (bonato 2010). point-of-care testing is another developing trend in enhancing home healthcare. many innovative devices are being investigated that potentially shorten the time between testing and diagnostic, and are especially useful in rural settings. beyette et al. (2011) provided a comprehensive survey and a special volume on these innovative handheld and home-based devices. these devices include sensors for multispectral imaging, tomography, cardiac, eeg, chlamydia trachomatis, bladder pressure, respiratory impairment, as well as for detection and analysis of macula swelling, pathogen detection, metabolic syndrome prediction, energy metabolism, chagas disease, vascular tree identification, parkinson's disease, etc. back in 2005, stankovic et al. (2005) at the university of virginia identified three critical development issues in wireless sensor networks for in-home healthcare. the first issue is the enabling technologies for future medical devices: interoperability, real-time data acquisition and analysis, reliability and robustness, and new node architectures. embedded, real-time, networked system infrastructure is the other critical development area which includes patient and object tracking, communication, interference, multimodal collaboration, energy conservation, and multi-tiered data management. the third issue concerns medical practice-driven models and requirements including role-base access control and delegation in realtime, unobtrusive operation, and records and data privacy and security. the critical development areas of concern, as suggested by stankovic's team, have not yet been fully addressed with today's technology. there are ample opportunities for research and development in improving telemedicine systems as they are still at an infancy stage. some of the challenges and issues in building a smart home environment are shown in fig. 2 . without a doubt, smart home telemedicine systems will be deployed in an increasingly rapid pace in the years to come. anagnostaki a et al (2002) your floor knows where you are: sensing and acquisition of movement data a survy on home telemedice home healthcare platform based on wireless sensor networks an extensible telemonitoring architecture based on mobile agent method home healthcare set top-box for senior chronic care using iso/ieee 11073 phd standard using osgi upnp and zigbee to provide a wireless ubiquitous home healthcare environment decision making in assistive environments using multimodal observations a study of integrating digital health network with upnp in an elderly nursing home robotic pet based interactive home healthcare system integrity mechanism for ehealth tele-monitoring system in smart home environment massachusetts department of elementary and secondary education human activities of daily living recognition using fuzzy logic for elderly home monitoring a pervasive multi-sensor data fusion for smart home healthcare monitoring e-service robot in home healthcare voip based telehomecare application kiosk fall detection in the elderly by head tracking web services to improve interoperability of home healthcare devices development and clinical evaluation of a home healthcare system measuring in toilet, bathtub and bed without attachment of any biological sensors wireless e-jacket for multiparameter biophysical monitoring and telemedicine applications better technologies and services for smart homes of disabled people: empirical findings from an explorative study among intellectually disabled monitoring and modeling simple everyday activities of the elderly at home /ieee 11073 phd standardization of legacy healthcare device for home healthcare services designing an emotional majormodo in smart home healthcare home telemonitoring of respiratory activity and heart rate variability in chronic heart failure patients: the challenge of the home or hospital in heart failure project a ubiquitous smart home for the elderly status of mobile computing in health care: an evidence study vnurse: using virtualisation on mobile phones for remote health monitoring the future of command and control for disaster response design and implementation of experttelemedicine system for diabetes management at home an internet-based system for home monitoring of respiratory muscle disorders plans and planning in smart homes in lncs in computer science health monitoring systems for massive emergency situations the future of homecare systems in the context of the ubiquitous web and its related mobile technologies convention on the rights of persons with disabilities sha: a secure voice activated smart home for quadriplegia patients speech recognition in a smart home: some experiments for telemonitoring intelligent services for assisting independent living of elderly people at home service personalization for assistive living in a mobile ambient healthcare-networked environment web based medicine intake tracking application smart home technology 545 first steps in data fusion between a multichannel audio acquisition and an information system for home healthcare body piconet for the telemedicine system based on home networks improving healthcare quality through distributed diagnosis and home healthcare (d2h2) a context-management framework for telemedicine: an emergency medicine case study. wireless health home self-monitoring of blood flow velocity based on labview mobile environment research on home health care telemedicine service system concerned with the improvement of medical resources utilization rate and medical conditions performance analysis of a home telemonitoring system agent-based web healthcare systems for realtime chronic disease medical technology in smart homes: exploring the user's perspective on privacy, intimacy and trust key: cord-336621-0w3rroir authors: kim, kyoung ok title: a first step toward understanding patient safety date: 2016-07-25 journal: korean j anesthesiol doi: 10.4097/kjae.2016.69.5.429 sha: doc_id: 336621 cord_uid: 0w3rroir patient safety has become an important policy agenda in healthcare systems since publication of the 1999 report entitled "to err is human." the paradigm has changed from blaming the individual for the error to identifying the weakness in the system that led to the adverse events. anesthesia is one of the first healthcare specialties to adopt techniques and lessons from the aviation industry. the widespread use of simulation programs and the application of human factors engineering to clinical practice are the influences of the aviation industry. despite holding relatively advanced medical technology and comparable safety records, the korean health industry has little understanding of the systems approach to patient safety. because implementation of the existing system and program requires time, dedication, and financial support, the korean healthcare industry is in urgent need of developing patient safety policies and putting them into practice to improve patient safety before it is too late. vol. 69, no. 5, october 2016 patient safety human error is inevitable even in highly reliable industries, such as the aviation, nuclear, and health industries [5] . we need to focus on analyzing the various processes in the system that lead to errors rather than consuming valuable resources holding individuals responsible for their actions. in this paper, two approaches will be introduced to deal with the problem of human error. the general concepts of patient safety in anesthesiology will then be discussed, followed by a discussion of the cultural influence on patient safety and ways to improve the patient safety culture in the korean healthcare industry. in 1999, "to err is human" reported a high frequency of human errors and adverse events in healthcare institutions [6] . according to several retrospective studies, 1 in 10 hospital inpatients likely suffers the consequence of a human error during their hospital stay [7, 8] . as a result, patient safety issues in healthcare have become of interest to researchers. reason [5] , the renowned human error expert who has studied human error for 25 years, presented a theory suggesting that the human error problem can be evaluated using a person approach and a systems approach. the person approach focuses on the errors of individuals. individuals who commit an error should be held responsible for their delinquency, and the delinquency is normally addressed with disciplinary measures. this paradigm remains the mainstream belief in medicine and elsewhere [5] . however, the person approach has been challenged because people do not choose to make mistakes; bad things happen to good people [9] . people in the healthcare industry have lost jobs, suffered serious stress, or taken their own life after being blamed for errors [10, 11] . indeed, maintaining this tradition is likely to victimize hardworking innocent people and delay the development of a safer healthcare environment [5] . the systems model is based on the idea that humans are prone to err and that human errors are inevitable, even in wellorganized institutions. errors occur when a series of failures in the system occur, which is well illustrated by the swiss cheese model [5] . this model likens human systems to multiple slices of swiss cheese with holes, stacked side by side. although highly technological systems have many defensive layers, such as guidelines and protocols, to prevent errors, each layer also has its own deficiencies like the holes in swiss cheese. the presence of holes in any one "slice" does not allow a risk to materialize, as another layer of defense is in place. however, when the holes in many layers momentarily line up, a mistake passes through the holes in all of the slices, resulting in an unwanted incident. the systems approach advocates that a medical error is the result of a system flaw, not a character flaw [5] , which makes it easier for an individual to report an error promptly and honestly. this kind of robust reporting helps identify errors and strengthens problematic areas so that the same error does not occur again [9] . the airline pilot martin bromiley lost his wife to an anesthesia incident and wanted to change the way in which medical errors were handled in the healthcare industry. after his wife's tragic death, he expected an investigation by an independent body. the air accidents investigation branch in the airline industry routinely investigates all accidents [12] . he was surprised when he was told that no such investigation would take place unless he sued or filed a formal complaint. an independent investigation was conducted, but mr. bromiley did not file charges against individuals and only hoped that some lesson might be taught to others as a result of a fair investigation. as he wished, all professionals involved in the case remained to serve and help the system to avoid similar errors. implementing the systems approach is vital to improving patient safety because it enables medical professionals to learn lessons from their errors [8, 9] . a main premise of the systems approach is that a completely error-free system is impossible and emphasizes learning from errors and preventing recurrence [8, 9] . one way to learn from errors is to establish a reporting system. the purpose of a reporting system is to analyze the data and provide a remedy and information that leads to a change in the system that affects all healthcare organizations [13, 14] . several studies have reported that healthcare workers often do not report adverse events for fear of punitive action, prosecution, or being ostracized at the workplace [15, 16] . anonymity, confidentiality, or protection from punishment is essential for potential reporters to overcome the barrier of fear [17, 18] . the aviation industry recognized the importance of data and introduced an internal confidential error reporting system in 1982 [19] . this confidential reporting system guarantees immunity from prosecution and encourages individuals to report errors without fear of punishment, enabling frank and accurate discussions about errors and system weaknesses. this benefit is equally applicable to the practice of clinical medicine and is korean j anesthesiol kyoung ok kim essential for patient safety [19] . medical error cases are often so complex and debatable that honest and detailed reporting is key to identifying the reasons for the accident. an error reporting system is currently being used in the usa, uk, denmark, and several other countries. the danish parliament passed the act on patient safety in 2003, following a study reporting that 9% of patients admitted to a danish hospital were involved in an adverse event [20] . this is the first legislation in the world that has sought to improve patient safety by ensuring that all adverse events are reported and that the national board of health will disseminate the results nationally [21] . the us senate passed the patient safety and quality improvement act (psqia) in 2005 [22] . the psqia introduced a voluntary reporting system to facilitate assessment of data to improve patient safety and healthcare quality. the uk's national patient safety agency created the national reporting and learning system in 2003, which is a nationwide voluntary event-reporting system for patient safety [23] . japanese healthcare workers are also familiar with event-reporting systems because all japanese hospitals established an in-house, legally bound event-reporting system in 2002 [24] . the patient safety act, which includes a voluntary reporting system, will go into effect in july 2016 in korea [25] . recent developments in practice and technology have made anesthesia much safer than before, and anesthesiology is the leading medical specialty addressing the patient safety issue [26] . clinicians working in anesthesiology became interested in patient safety partly because administering anesthesia can cause adverse events but has no therapeutic benefit of its own. several technological innovations have contributed substantially to patient safety [26] . one has been to introduce real-time patient monitoring systems, such as electrocardiography, pulse oximetry, and capnography. the laryngeal mask airway and video laryngoscope have had a huge effect on managing patients with a difficult airway. another strategy adopted by anesthesiologists to improve patient safety has been the establishment of guidelines and standards to provide guidance in specific clinical situations [26] . in particular, guidelines for managing difficult intubation and for regional anesthesia in patients taking antithrombotic agents have important implications for patient safety. the aviation industry first acknowledged that human factors dominate the risks in aviation safety and that errors are inevitable as a result of human physiological and cognitive limitations [4, 19] . consequently, the aviation industry introduced a team training model called crew resource management (crm) more than two decades ago to improve individual nontechnical skills [27] . crm is a set of training procedures used in environments where human errors can have devastating effects. crm consists of four categories: teaching situational awareness, improved communication, appropriate task distribution, and optimal teamwork. anesthesia is one of the first healthcare specialties that have adopted techniques and lessons from the aviation industry. the widespread use of simulation programs and applying human factor engineering to clinical practice are influences of the aviation industry. the anesthesia crisis resource management training modules [28] and the anesthetists' non-technical skills system (ants) for assessing behavioral markers [29] were developed while adopting the human factors engineering model. the ants skills framework includes four skill categories of situational awareness, decision-making, task management, and team working, each with example behaviors. the ants system has satisfactory levels of validity, reliability, and usability, provided raters receive adequate training [30] . in addition to these academic successes, anesthesiology contributed to the institutionalization of patient safety as a subject of professional interest. the anesthesia patient safety foundation (apsf) is a pioneer organization dedicated to patient safety that was launched in late 1985 as an independent nonprofit organization with the vision that "no patient shall be harmed by anesthesia" [31] . the apsf publishes a quarterly newsletter on anesthesia and patient safety and has funded many important projects that would probably never have been financed by a "traditional" organization. the most outstanding achievement of the apsf program has been helping to create a cadre of experts who devote their careers to patient safety by financially supporting them [26] . the american medical association, influenced by the huge success of the apsf, created the national patient safety foundation decades later [32]. despite relatively advanced medical technology and comparable safety records, the korean healthcare industry has little understanding of human factors engineering or the systems approach to patient safety, and anesthesia is not the exception. the quality of equipment, procedural techniques, and anesthetic medicine is quite standardized among developed countries, partly due to the tremendous marketing effort of multinational pharmaceutical and device companies. technologic developments for patient safety can be adopted quickly because no time or sophisticated knowledge is required. furthermore, outcomes are easily recognizable. however, creating the system and applying a training program, such as ants, are taxing and require time and commitment. considerable interest in the use of ants has been generated worldwide, and ants is currently vol. 69, no. 5, october 2016 patient safety used in anesthetic simulation training in many countries, such as canada, spain, sweden, and the netherlands [30] . unfortunately, no attempt has been made by korean anesthesia societies to introduce a crm-style training course or establish a simulation center. in addition, no patient safety committee has been created by the korean society of anesthesiologists. cultural traditions may be influencing patient safety in korea. in a study investigating the characteristics of the patient safety culture in japan, taiwan, and the us, the authors emphasized the need for open communication in taiwan [33] . a lack of open communication is not unique to taiwan but is deeply seated in the confucian culture, including korea. koreans are more reluctant to mention another individual's behavior for fear of offending them; if the individual is senior, such action is often regarded as challenging authority. feedback and communication about errors are not prevalent in the korean healthcare industry because people believe that this kind of discussion may humiliate coworkers, and they are more concerned with punitive measures [34, 35] . this confucian culture also plays an important role in communication among healthcare providers [36] . even in western culture, it is difficult for junior staff to question seniors about their actions. this is even more difficult in east asian cultures, including korea, where younger people are expected to show their respect to their elders and superiors due to the long influence of confucianism. for example, korean air had more plane crashes than almost any other airline in the world by the end of the 1990s. gladwell blamed those crashes on crew members whose cultural legacy made them too deferential to communicate clearly about a problem that could cause the plane to crash [37] . this hierarchical communication also exists in the korean medical profession and is one of the main causes of adverse events. because medical service is delivered by a team, communication with other team members is important during patient care. strong verbal communication skills in the context of a complex medical system is at the core of patient safety and effective teamwork. following is a typical case that shows how important communication is to patient safety. a 4-year-old child (height, 106 cm and weight, 16.7 kg) was admitted to the hospital for excision of a preauricular cyst. a physician-in-training (resident) in the ear-nose-throat (ent) department telephoned an anesthesia resident about a sedative dose of ketamine. the anesthesia resident said, "10 milli would be enough. " the anesthesia resident interpreted the word "milli" as short for milligram. however, the ent resident considered that "milli" was short for milliliter and wrote the order as follows: inject 500 mg/10 cc of ketamine over 1 min. this was 50 times the therapeutic dose. a nurse was concerned about the dose and asked the resident "is this right?" to verify the order. the resident approved the medication by answering the nurse, "yes, give it. " the nurse executed the order. this accident was discovered when the parent reported that the child had not woken up from sedation for several hours after finishing the computed tomography scan. fortunately, the child recovered fully without complications. the quality improvement committee reviewed the case and a remedy was implemented. the computerized order system was supplemented with dose-adjustment calculations based on weight and prohibited anesthetic prescriptions to be written by a non-anesthesiologist so that such an error would never happen again. the committee also recommended that nurses should confer with the attending physician through a senior nurse if they have an issue with a resident regarding an inappropriate subscription order. the committee made an effort to improve the system, but it did not address the communication problem properly and failed to suggest a remedy. the above-described tragedy began when two residents failed to communicate properly. the anesthesia resident assumed that the ent resident understood that "milli" meant "milligram. " this so-called "receiver-orientated" style is more prevalent in oriental culture, as the korean saying goes, gaetteoggat-i malhaedo chaltteoggat-i al-adeul-eola (i.e., "you must get it down to perfec tion, even though i speak gibberish") [38] . this type of interaction reflects the typical authoritarian culture in korea. higher-ranking individuals generally speak and then expect subordinates, who are usually listeners, to understand. if they fail, then it is the listener's fault. in contrast, western languages are typically "sender orientated, " meaning it is the speaker who has the responsibility to communicate clearly and unambiguously [38] . this style emphasizes the speaker's role in transmitting the information correctly from the beginning, which is obviously more reasonable [36] . in this way, we can reduce the possibility of miscommunication. there has been growing concern for improving verbal communication in clinical practice. therefore, many practical strategies to enhance medical communication already exist. one suggested method, which may have been helpful in this case, is the repeat-back method [39] . this means repeating what was said back to the speaker to confirm mutual understanding (e.g., the listener repeats an order from a speaker: "â�¦okay, so that is 10 milliliters of ketamine"). communication failure can arise for a number of reasons, but above all, a dysfunctional hierarchical system exists in healthcare professions. although authoritarian culture permeates all of korean j anesthesiol kyoung ok kim healthcare, physicians dominate the culture and influence others [40] . nurses traditionally provide care within the ordering scope of physicians. this traditional role plus a sense of privilege and status has led some physicians to believe that they are superior to nurses. this dysfunctional culture has created a barrier to the open communication and feedback that are essential for patient care. even an experienced nurse in the previous ent case would not challenge the novice resident. teamwork is another casualty of authoritarian behavior [40] . expecting deferential treatment from a subordinate or lacking respect for colleagues are detrimental to teamwork, which is the cornerstone of safe practice. as a team, physicians should treat other healthcare workers as their colleagues and not as subor-dinates. building healthy relationships with mutual respect is essential to the well-being of patients and healthcare workers. patient safety has become an important policy agenda in the healthcare industries of developed countries for the past decade, and numerous changes have been made to improve patient safety. however, the korean healthcare industry is well behind in patient safety for many reasons, including culture and policy. the korean healthcare industry and healthcare authorities should work together to develop and put policies into practice to improve patient safety. konkuk university respiratory disease epidemiological investigation and follow-up action plan jsp?menuids=home001-mnu1154-mnu0005-mnu0011&cid=66463 korean ) epidemiological findings and future plan jsp?menuids=home001-mnu1154-mnu0005-mnu0011&cid=66441 korean audit on risk management and prevention of mers outbreak human factors in anaesthesia: lessons from aviation human error: models and management to err is human: building a safer health incidence of adverse events and negligence in hospitalized patients. results of the harvard medical practice study i adverse events in british hospitals: preliminary retrospective record review understanding adverse events: human factors the emotional impact of medical error involvement on physicians: a call for leadership and organisational accountability taking their own lives --the high rate of physician suicide we need to change the culture in the nhs guardian news and media critical incident reporting and learning a review of medical error reporting system design considerations and a proposed cross-level systems research framework barriers to incident reporting are hospital incidents being reported? design elements for a primary care medical error reporting system reporting of adverse events confidential reporting: from aviation to clinical medicine incidence of adverse events in hospitals. a retrospective study of medical records the danish patient safety experience: the act on patient safety in the danish health care system department of health & human services. patient safety and quality improvement act of 2005 statute and rule department of health & human services patient safety 23. national patient safety agency (gb) gb): national patient safety agency healthcare safety committee in japan: mandatory accountability reporting system and punishment a legal framework for improving patient safety in korea anaesthesiology as a model for patient safety in health care development of the notechs (non-technical skills) system for assessing pilots' crm skills simulation-based training in anaesthesia crisis resource management (acrm): a decade of experience anaesthetists' non-technical skills (ants): evaluation of a behavioural marker system anaesthetists' non-technical skills foundation history national patient safety foundation (us) national patient safety foundation the characteristics of patient safety culture in japan, taiwan and the united states nurses' perception of error reporting and patient safety culture in korea experience and perception on patient safety culture of employees in hospitals improving verbal communication in critical care medicine new york, little, brown and company intercultural communication in cognitive values: americans and koreans medical team training: applying crew resource management in the veterans health administration perspective: a culture of respect, part 1: the nature and causes of disrespectful behavior by physicians key: cord-351490-2fx0w30u authors: russell, clark d.; baillie, j. kenneth title: treatable traits and therapeutic targets: goals for systems biology in infectious disease date: 2017-04-27 journal: curr opin syst biol doi: 10.1016/j.coisb.2017.04.003 sha: doc_id: 351490 cord_uid: 2fx0w30u among the many medical applications of systems biology, we contend that infectious disease is one of the most important and tractable targets. we take the view that the complexity of the immune system is an inevitable consequence of its evolution, and this complexity has frustrated reductionist efforts to develop host-directed therapies for infection. however, since hosts vary widely in susceptibility and tolerance to infection, host-directed therapies are likely to be effective, by altering the biology of a susceptible host to induce a response more similar to a host who survives. such therapies should exert minimal selection pressure on organisms, thus greatly decreasing the probability of pathogen resistance developing. a systems medicine approach to infection has the potential to provide new solutions to old problems: to identify host traits that are potentially amenable to therapeutic intervention, and the host immune factors that could be targeted by host-directed therapies. furthermore, undiscovered sub-groups with different responses to treatment are almost certain to exist among patients presenting with life-threatening infection, since this population is markedly clinically heterogeneous. a major driving force behind high-throughput clinical phenotyping studies is the aspiration that these subgroups, hitherto opaque to observation, may be observed in the data generated by new technologies. subgroups of patients are unlikely to be static – serial clinical and biological phenotyping may reveal different trajectories through the pathophysiology of disease, in which different therapeutic approaches are required. we suggest there are two major goals for systems biology in infection medicine: (1) to identify subgroups of patients that share treatable features; and, (2) to integrate high-throughput data from clinical and in vitro sources in order to predict tractable therapeutic targets with the potential to alter disease trajectories for individual patients. infection is the largest single cause of death in humans worldwide and many infectious agents provide relevant in vitro model systems that are both amenable to study with high-throughput techniques, and recapitulate key events in disease pathogenesis. in this review, we consider how systems biology approaches may be leveraged to address the major unmet needs in infection medicine in the 21st century, with the aim of improving outcomes for patients with infection. in clinical practice we are unable to therapeutically modulate the host immune response to infection, largely due to its inevitable complexity. despite this, we contend that host-directed therapies have a high probability of success, since there is already considerable innate variation in host responses to infectious disease, ranging from extreme susceptibility, to complete resistance, and tolerance. infectious diseases are survivable if you have the right genetics. the challenge is to make the same diseases survivable for patients who would otherwise succumb. a systems medicine approach to infection has the potential to combine and integrate relevant signals from clinical, genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic and pathogen biology data to draw inferences about disease pathogenesis. below we discuss examples of aspects of this approach applied to various infectious diseases, and suggest future goals for the application of systems biology to infection medicine. more than 70 years after the discovery of penicillin [1] , this same drug is still a prominent weapon in our antibacterial armamentarium. more broadly, the concept underlying this therapeutic approach -attempting to eradicate the pathogen from a patient's body using antimicrobial drugs -remains the only effective treatment. although spectacularly successful, the focus on the pathogen has two limitations. firstly, death frequently occurs in infectious disease despite effective antimicrobial therapy. alongside the direct effects of microbial virulence factors, tissue damage is also caused by the host immune response. immune-mediated damage leading to respiratory, cardiovascular and renal failure (sepsis) continues even after eradication of the pathogen [2] . at present, no treatments exist to modify these deleterious aspects of the host immune response. secondly, antimicrobial resistance threatens to liberate pathogens from the range of our solitary weapon against them. unless something changes, deaths from infection are predicted to soar, overtaking malignant disease even in developed countries by 2050 [3] . therapies to modulate the host response to infection would have the theoretical advantage that, in addition to promoting survival in the presence of effective antimicrobials, a host-targeted therapy may exert a less powerful selection pressure on pathogens, and may be more difficult for a pathogen to evolve to overcome. in our view, the development of such therapies is wellsuited to the application of systems approaches. inevitable complexity of the immune system the human immune system is arguably the most complicated organ system in the body, encompassing numerous effectors, inter-related feedback loops and extensive redundancy. this complexity is unsurprising when considering that our immune system has evolved in the face of microbial virulence factors that directly interfere with regulatory and effector mechanisms. examples of microbial interference with host immune mechanisms are numerous and diverse. for example, one of the first innate immune mechanisms encountered by many pathogens is phagocytosis, which serves to both prime the adaptive response and eliminate invading pathogens by intracellular killing. pathogenic yersinia species, a group of facultative intracellular pathogens, encode a type three secretion system to directly inject effector proteins into the host cell cytoplasm, modulating the cytoskeleton to prevent phagocytosis, and inducing apoptosis of immune cells and blocking the mapk and nf-kb pathways to reduce cytokine production [4] . another bacterium, pseudomonas aeruginosa, secretes a protease that cleaves a host protein (corticosteroid-binding globulin) to release the corticosteroid hormone cortisol at the site of initial infection, incapacitating the local innate immune response [5] . even the relatively tiny genome of the influenza a virus encodes a protein (ns1) which is nonessential for replication and seems to be dedicated to interfering with both the induction and action of the host antiviral interferon response by sequestering viral dsrna, preventing activation of rig-1 signalling and inhibiting protein kinase r and oas/rnase l [6] . the adaptive response, mediated by t and b lymphocytes, is also a target. the human immunodeficiency virus encodes three proteins that each down-regulate cell surface mhc-1 expression by distinct mechanisms, preventing mhc-i signalling to activate the cytotoxic t-cell response to virus-infected cells [7] . to prevent b-cells mounting an antibody response to infection, the staphylococcus aureus surface protein a binds to the fc-g portion of antibodies [8] . these examples cover a few of the mechanisms pathogens have evolved to extensively interfere with the host immune response. the animal innate immune system is thought to have evolved over 1000 million years, starting with amebae able to phagocytose external material for nutrition [9] . the adaptive immune system in mammals is thought to have arisen 500 million years ago in fish [10] . since these initial events, the immune system in each host species has participated in a genetic arms race, evolving alongside relentless exposure to these microbial immune interference strategies from innumerable pathogens. furthermore, the immune system must successfully distinguish self from non-self antigens, with deleterious consequences arising (i.e. autoimmune disease) when this fails. the requirement to overcome these microbial immune interference strategies whilst preserving the recognition of self-antigens has provided the necessary pressure to drive the human immune system to evolve into a hugely complex organ system. in the context of this inevitable complexity, it is no surprise that reductionist approaches to development of hosttargeted therapies in infectious disease have largely a subgroup within a population of patients who are distinguished by a shared disease process. treatable trait the pathophysiological feature (or, in a looser sense, a biomarker or group of biomarkers for that feature) that determines whether a given therapy will improve a given patient's outcome. the same trait may be present in many different clinical syndromes or disease processes. it is reasonable to expect that as-yet undiscovered therapeutic interventions could alter the host immune response to promote survival. we infer this from the simple fact that some hosts do better than others when confronted with the same pathogen: the host response to infection is, in all cases that we know to have been studied, heterogeneous. furthermore, much of this variation is heritable [11] . we conclude that host factors exist that promote survival from specific infections, and that these must vary between individuals, and hence that it should be possible to identify and utilise these factors therapeutically to alter the biology of a susceptible host to induce a response more similar to a host who survives. the scale of the challenge of finding these targets is such that it is hard to imagine a solution being found without the power of systems approaches [12] . conceptually, this could involve promoting resistance to (suppressing pathogen replication), or tolerance of (preventing damage associated with immune response to pathogen), an infecting pathogen [13] . although theoretically attractive as a tool to limit damage to the host [14] , inducing tolerance is not without potential dangers: a sustained high pathogen load could facilitate transmission (iatrogenic super-shedders) and, perhaps more worryingly in emerging zoonotic infections, provide the time required for the selection of mutants with better host adaptation. due to their reliable and broad acting anti-inflammatory effects, corticosteroids represent an intuitively attractive strategy to reduce inflammation during infection. indeed, a survival benefit has been demonstrated in a small number of uncommon infections (bacterial meningitis, tuberculous meningitis and pericarditis, hypoxaemic pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia) [15] . in contrast, there is uncertainty over safety and benefit in other infections (e.g. rsv bronchiolitis) and clear evidence of harm in others (viral hepatitis, cerebral malaria, influenza virus, sars coronavirus, hiv-associated cryptococcal meningitis) [15e19]. a more specific host-directed therapy, recombinant human activated protein c (rhapc), was licensed for treatment of severe sepsis based on the results of a single clinical trial [20] . rhapc has anti-inflammatory and anti-thrombotic properties, and circulating levels are low in patients with sepsis [21] . sadly, a subsequent trial in an overlapping patient group showed a trend towards increased mortality [22] . a third trial, mandated by the regulatory authorities, did not detect any mortality benefit, and the drug was quickly withdrawn from the market [23] . these negative trial results in sepsis are not necessarily conclusive. the heterogeneity of the host response, and the diverse range of microbes involved, means that amongst all patients with sepsis (itself an unrealistically broad syndrome) there are likely to be numerous biologically-different sub-groups, with distinct immune responses and more importantly, different risk: benefit balance for a given therapy. corticosteroids, for example, may save some patients but harm others. our current understanding of infection does not allow clinical differentiation of these sub-groups, so potentially beneficial therapies may be falsely rejected in clinical trials. we believe that a major output of systems approaches to infection will be the elucidation of previously hidden therapeutically-important subgroups of patients who share a 'treatable trait' (i.e. response to therapy). we have discussed two central problems in infection medicine. firstly, the development of therapies to modulate the host immune response is impeded by the inevitable complexity of the human immune system. secondly, the range and degree of characterisation of clinical syndromes in medicine is constrained by the range of observations that are available; we likely fail to identify sub-groups of patients with treatable traits due to a paucity of relevant observations. the promise of systems approaches to infection medicine is that new technologies may provide solutions to these old problems. large-scale biological data-sets from an increasing range of high-throughput technologies are becoming available, including (but not limited to) high-resolution transcriptional profiling [24] , mass spectrometry-based proteomics [25] and metabolomics, genome-scale crispr-cas9 knockout screening [26] , and whole genome sequencing/genome-wide association studies. these modalities could provide new, biologically important observations that have not previously been observed in patients. it is very likely that some of these observations will be directly relevant to clinical management e the challenge will be to identify the ones that matter. there are three broad categories of clinical utility for these new data sources in infection medicine: identifying treatable traits and therapeuticallyrelevant subgroups; identifying new therapeutic targets in the immune response; and, improving prognostication. the value of prognostication in current clinical practice is, in our view, limited by the range of therapeutic options. put simply, it is only useful to predict the future if you have some capacity to change it. particularly in the case of acute and immediately lifethreatening infection, our range of therapeutic options is very limited, regardless of the degree of certainty attached to the prognosis, therefore we suggest the first two applications should be prioritised. in contrast, the identification of syndromes (collections of clinical observations that tend to occur in patients suffering the same disease) has been the primary mechanism for progress in the understanding of human disease since long before the time of hippocrates [27] . finding a syndrome is the first step towards identifying the common biological processes that define a disease, and ultimately to identifying effective treatments. we hope that the application of systems technologies will help us define treatable traits in infection, thus providing a starting point for new therapeutic interventions ( figure 1 ). importantly, a systems model of the disease process need not predict every transcript and metabolite in the massively multi-dimensional datasets generated by new technologies. the primary challenge is instead to identify those components of inter-host variation that are amenable to intervention; the evidence of disease processes that we can change. this is agusti's concept of "treatable traits" [28] , a term coined in the field of chronic obstructive lung disease but no less relevant here. a computational model of infection could therefore include not only traditional measures of pathogen burden and evidence of systemic injury [29] , but also independent components of the immune response or the metabolic consequences, detected using highthroughput technologies. the behaviour of the whole system may be impenetrably complex, but the components required to predict the effect of an intervention may be far simpler. the trajectory followed by each patient along an informative set of vectors may reveal different groups of patients that appear clinically similar, and may even have similar outcomes, but different disease processes ( figure 2 ). by mapping the "flight path" of each patient through disease, we anticipate that summary of a systems medicine approach to infection. a wide range of data sources can be combined using various methods (see text) to achieve two fundamental goalsclinically-informative phenotyping of patients, and identification of therapeutic targets. important similarities and differences in immune response will become apparent [29] . our ability to identify groups of patients sharing therapeutically-relevant similarities is dependent on measuring the relevant biological signal that determines classification. this is the fundamental attraction of high-throughput technologies e the probability of measuring important signals is greater if more signals are measured. that such groupings of patients, or disease endotypes, exist is already clear: therapeuticallyimportant sub-classifications have recently been discovered that redefine the clinical syndromes of asthma [30, 31] , ards [32] , and acute mountain sickness [33] . in two related autoimmune conditions, anca-associated vasculitis (aav) and systemic lupus erythematosus (sle), a t-cell gene expression signature clearly delineates two distinct endotypes [34] . subsequent work elucidated the immunological process underlying this sub-classification, cd8 t-cell exhaustion [35] . this process is associated with better outcomes in autoimmune disease, but poor clearance of viral infection. in the future it may be possible to manipulate this pathway therapeutically in patients with aav or sle, to prevent relapse, or in the opposite direction in patients with chronic viral infection, to promote clearance. even in the best-case scenario, the distance between the identification of a tractable therapeutic target and successful exploitation in clinical practice is substantial, so it is no surprise that potential host-directed therapies discovered through high-dimensionality analytics have not yet been proven to be effective in clinical trials. nonetheless there are some promising leads, a few of which are described here. these exemplify different approaches: integrating cell culture, animal and human data sequentially to identify a host anti-viral factor (influenza virus); and using computational predictions from transcriptional data with proteomic and genetically modified animal studies to identify host pathways involved in pathogenesis (sars coronavirus). viruses are obligate parasites and undergo exclusively intracellular replication; properties that make them ideal for study in cell culture where host factors that affect viral replication can be expected to do the same in vivo. sirna screening has been used as a genomewide approach to identify such host factors for influenza virus infection. ifitm3 was identified as a novel host anti-viral factor by sirna screening with confirmatory in vitro work (including exogenous interferon administration and stable ifitm3 expression) demonstrating it is required for an effective interferon response to inhibit influenza virus replication [36] . work in ifitm3e/e mice was then undertaken, confirming that in vivo, influenza virus-infected mice suffer fatal viral pneumonia, even when infected with a low-pathogenicity virus [37] . the genisis/mosaic groups identified a single nucleotide polymorphism hypothetical trajectories of two groups of patients through multidimensional space. each line indicates the path taken by a single patient, with periods of organ failure highlighted in red. a superficially similar group of patients may appear clinically indistinguishable (a), but different trajectories through illness are revealed by informative vectors derived from high-throughput data (b). it is reasonable to expect that such biological differences in disease process will underlie different responses to host-directed therapies. (rs12252-c) within the ifitm3 coding region in humans that was strongly over-represented in patients hospitalised with influenza virus infection [37] , the majority of whom required invasive ventilation. metaanalysis of genomic studies of ifitm3 and influenza virus infection has confirmed this association between snp rs12252-c and increased susceptibility to infection in humans [38] . work is now underway in many groups to investigate the impact of ifitm proteins in antiviral defence, with a view to generating hosttargeted antiviral therapies. this example highlights the potential of a systems-wide approach, integrating and cross-validating results from various experimental modalities (high-throughput screening in cell culture, followed by targeted studies in mice and humans) to converge from large-scale data onto a single critical host immune factor. acute lung injury (ali) and progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome are major features of the pathophysiology of sars coronavirus (and indeed other respiratory virus) infection. pathological changes in mice are very similar to humans and there is a dose-response relationship between viral inoculum and the severity of ali. host responses to the virus that result in ali are poorly understood. to investigate host responses associated with more severe acute lung injury in a murine model of sars coronavirus (sars-cov) infection, transcriptomic profiles of mice infected with lethal and sub-lethal doses of virus were compared and correlated with pathological data at multiple time points, then subject to bioinformatic network analysis [39] . a module of genes involved in cell adhesion, extracellular matrix remodelling and wound healing was significantly up-regulated in the lethal infection model, and components of the urokinase pathway were found to be the most enriched and differentially regulated. massspectrometry proteomic analysis was then used to explore this transcriptional data further, demonstrating that sars-cov infection resulted in increased expression of fibrin b and g chains, factor viii and cytokeratins (all components of hyaline membranes), and reduced expression of surfactant proteins in the lung. these data are consistent with histological post-mortem findings in sars-cov infected humans, where extensive fibrin exudate, extensive hyaline membrane formation and alveolar collapse have been observed [40] . serpine1 is part of the urokinase pathway and contributes to ecm remodelling. to confirm this finding from transcriptional and proteomic studies, serpine1e/e knockout mice were infected with sars-cov and found to have a worse outcome compared to wild type mice. this systemsbased approach to sars-cov, sequentially applying transcriptional, proteomic then genetic modification techniques, demonstrates that the urokinase pathway contributes to ali, thus identifying a target for future experimental medicine work to determine if it can be therapeutically altered to benefit the host. these examples give us confidence that we can expect more progress along similar lines as the potential of systems medicine approaches becomes more widely appreciated, as expertise in computational methodologies grows, and as the cost of generating relevant data falls. physicians have long made progress by recognising patterns of similar observations in groups of patients, and by determining which biological features of disease are amenable to therapy. what has changed is the unprecedented rate of advance in new resources and tools with which to tackle the ancient problems of diagnosis and therapy in infectious disease. our responsibility is to ensure a similar acceleration in clinical progress. . sorensen ti, nielsen gg, andersen pk, teasdale tw: genetic and environmental influences on premature death in adult adoptees. n engl j med 1988, 318:727-732. this prospective cohort study of adoptees demonstrated that genetic background contributes more to the relative risk of death due to infection (i.e. biologic parent also died of infection) than for death due to cancer, vascular disease or natural causes, thus affirming that susceptibility to infection is a strongly heritable trait. papers of particular interest, published within the period of review, have been highlighted as: of special interest of outstanding interest first clinical use of penicillin severe sepsis and septic shock review on antimicrobial resistance. tackling drug-resistant infections globally: final report and recommendations the yersinia ysc-yop 'type iii' weaponry pseudomonas aeruginosa elastase disrupts the cortisol-binding activity of corticosteroidbinding globulin the multifunctional ns1 protein of influenza a viruses mechanisms of hiv-1 to escape from the host immune surveillance role of protein a in the evasion of host adaptive immune responses by staphylococcus aureus evolution of innate immunity: clues from invertebrates via fish to mammals origin and evolution of the adaptive immune system: genetic events and selective pressures disentangling genetic variation for resistance and tolerance to infectious diseases in animals this study utilises a murine malaria model to demonstrate that resistance to and tolerance of infection represent genetically distinct host defence mechanisms disease tolerance as a defense strategy use of corticosteroids in treating infectious diseases adjunct prednisone therapy for patients with communityacquired pneumonia: a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial adjunctive dexamethasone in hiv-associated cryptococcal meningitis corticosteroids as adjunctive therapy in the treatment of influenza sars: systematic review of treatment effects efficacy and safety of recombinant human activated protein c for severe sepsis role of activated protein c in the pathophysiology of severe sepsis drotrecogin alfa (activated) in severe sepsis drotrecogin alfa (activated) in adults with septic shock gateways to the fantom5 promoter level mammalian expression atlas mass spectrometry-based proteomics genome-scale crispr-cas9 knockout screening in human cells genome editing using the crispr-cas9 system can be applied to genome-wide knockout screening to identify genes with an important phenotype in an in vitro model, as exemplified in this study of genes required for cell viability in cancer and genes implicated in susceptibility to a therapeutic raf inhibitor used in melanoma hippocrates on ancient medicine phenotypes and disease characterization in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. toward the extinction of phenotypes? health trajectories reveal the dynamic contributions of host genetic resistance and tolerance to infection outcome multidimensional endotypes of asthma: topological data analysis of crosssectional clinical, pathological, and immunological data asthma endotypes: a new approach to classification of disease entities within the asthma syndrome subphenotypes in acute respiratory distress syndrome: latent class analysis of data from two randomised controlled trials network analysis reveals distinct clinical syndromes underlying acute mountain sickness a systematic network analysis (using software originally designed for analysing microarray expression data) of symptoms associated with acute mountain sickness revealed three distinct sub-groups within the syndrome, resulting in a revision of international diagnostic criteria for a cd8+ t cell transcription signature predicts prognosis in autoimmune disease transcriptional profiling identified two distinct sub-groups (related to t-cell survival and memory) which could then be differentiated on the basis of only three genes, providing a useful biomarker for clinical trials of immunosuppressant therapies and focussing further studies on these pathways t-cell exhaustion, co-stimulation and clinical outcome in autoimmunity and infection the ifitm proteins mediate cellular resistance to influenza a h1n1 virus, west nile virus, and dengue virus ifitm3 restricts the morbidity and mortality associated with influenza data was integrated from cell culture work, a murine infection model, human genotyping and patient clinical variables to validate ifitm3 as a critical host defence against influenza virus infection and thus a tractable therapeutic target interferon-inducible transmembrane protein 3 genetic variant rs12252 and influenza susceptibility and severity: a meta-analysis mechanisms of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-induced acute lung injury multiple organ infection and the pathogenesis of sars key: cord-318119-h0vnfcuq authors: lee, s. h.; lee, w. l. title: site verification and modeling of desiccant-based system as an alternative to conventional air-conditioning systems for wet markets date: 2013-06-15 journal: energy doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.04.029 sha: doc_id: 318119 cord_uid: h0vnfcuq abstract desiccant cooling system for active humidity control and to conserve energy has been in commercial applications for over two decades. however, its use in humid wet markets has never been examined. a gas-fired desiccant cooling system has been installed in a wet market in hong kong. in this study, the annual energy saving in conjunction with the use of desiccant cooling system was investigated by in-situ measurements, site surveys and simulations. the verified computer model was used for further simulations. it was found that for the use of a minimum ventilation rate of 10.3 l/s/person, the use of desiccant cooling system as compared to conventional system saved 4% of the energy and could achieve the desired space conditions. a parametric study under various ventilation rates indicated that use of desiccant cooling system in wet markets in hot and humid hong kong would lead to energy and energy cost savings, as well as co2 emission reduction amounting from 1% to 13%. the savings were more evident when wet markets were designed for a ventilation rate of 20 l/s/person. furthermore, the actual occupancy profile, and lighting and small power densities determined in this study would be useful for future studies on wet market. in most commercial and residential applications, the space relative humidity is not controlled because conventional air-conditioning systems rely on operating the cold coil at very low effective temperatures to enable the removal of moisture by condensation. as such, the desired space relative humidity can only be achieved by matching the equipment (sensible heat ratio) shr with the building shr, but a perfect match rarely happens. this divergence leads to excessive cooling which increases energy use, and moisture problems which accelerate microbial growth, particularly for subtropical climates like hong kong with very humid outdoor air. in solving the excessive cooling and moisture problems, previous studies [1e3] advocate decoupling of dehumidification from cooling for better humidity control and energy performance. desiccant cooling system, which can actively control the humidity level, is often used for achieving the dehumidification objective. recent studies on desiccant cooling system have been done on optimizing the operating variables for better energy performance [4e7]; developing empirical model for investigation of the system performance [8] ; improving the control and operation by experimental studies [9, 10] ; and widening the application to different types of buildings [11e14] . however, it is noted that they are either restricted to applications where ventilation requirements are set to remove heat generated by people, lighting and equipment, or where moisture removal is not a design intent [13, 14] . as for applications where ventilation requirements are set for moisture and contaminates removal, little has been found in extant literature. the recent occurrence of sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome), avian flu and anthracnose in some countries makes environmental health one of the most important elements for an airconditioning system [15] . in achieving the environmental health objective, ventilation requirement for some premises is not just for heat removal, but for moisture and contaminant removal. the wetmarket in hong kong is one typical example. modernized wet markets in hong kong are housed in airconditioned buildings. they traditionally sell fresh meat, fruits and vegetables, and live animals. live animals include fish, shellfish, and poultry. because water is used to wash the floors, keep the fruits and vegetables fresh, and keep animals alive, wet markets are an extremely damp place. for moisture and contaminant removal, wet markets often require very high ventilation rate and this, combined with the humid outdoor air, increases the latent load and thus a huge amount of energy will be consumed if conventional air conditioning system is used. a gas-fired desiccant cooling system has been installed in a wet market in hong kong which may probably be the first installation of its kind in the world. the actual operating data of the pilot installation will be used to validate simulation predictions. upon successful validation, further simulations will be conducted to evaluate the overall performance of desiccant cooling system as compared to a conventional air-conditioning system. given designers are free to design the ventilation rates they deem proper for wet markets, the influence of ventilation rates on the energy and energy cost savings, as well as co 2 emission reduction of desiccant cooling system will further be investigated. desiccant dehumidification differs from conventional airconditioning system in terms of the thermodynamics of the process air. instead of cooling the air below its dew point to condense its moisture, desiccants attract moisture from the air. desiccant has a vapor pressure lower than the air in its active state. this vapor pressure differential drives the water vapor from air onto the desiccant [16] . figs. 1 and 2 show the psychrometric processes of the two systems. a conventional system typically admits (outdoor air) oa at state 0 to mix with return air at state r to become mixed air (state 1). the mixed air will subsequently be cooled to state 2 followed by a reheating process to become supply air (state 3) for achieving the desired space temperature and relative humidity (state r). for the removal of moisture by condensation, state 2 is often conditioned to a very low temperature (10e12 c dry-bulb) and is close to saturation (90e95% relative humidity). in a desiccant cooling system, the latent cooling is performed by desiccant dehumidification whilst the sensible cooling is treated by a cold-coil air handler. the oa at state 0 is first brought into the gas-fired desiccant dehumidifier and is dehumidified adiabatically to state 1. the dried and hot oa is then pre-cooled by the exhaust air at state r through an air-to-air heat exchanger to state 2. the pre-cooled oa is subsequently mixed with the return air to state 3 followed by a cooling process at the cold-coil air-handler (state 4) to become supply air conditions for achieving the desired space conditions (state r). the exhaust air leaving the air-to-air heat exchanger at state 5 is heated up at the gas burner to become hot air (state 6) for regeneration of the desiccant dehumidifier. warm and humid air at state 7 will finally be exhausted to the environment. in the regeneration process of the desiccant dehumidifier, the desiccant wheel rotates slowly into the stream of gas-fired hot air (state 6), which raises the vapor pressure of the desiccant above that of the surrounding air. with the vapor pressure differential reversed, water vapor moves from the desiccant to the regeneration air, which carries the moisture away from the system. the schematic of the air flow of the desiccant cooling system is shown in fig. 3 . this study evaluates the overall performance of a gas desiccant cooling system as compared to a conventional air-conditioning for application in a case study wet market. the influence of ventilation requirements on the energy and energy cost savings, as well as co 2 emission reduction of desiccant cooling system will also be evaluated. evaluations were based on in-situ measurements, site surveys and energy simulations. in-situ measurements results were retrieved from the remote monitoring system. the retrieved results include the space air conditions and the year round energy use derived from fans (process and regeneration), chilled water circulating pumps, chillers and burners of the gas-fired dehumidifiers. given key parameters like occupancy, and installed lighting and small power densities are not available; site surveys have been conducted to ascertain these parameters. the in-situ measurements and site surveys results were used for simulation validation to facilitate further simulations. a simulation program, energyplus was adopted to simulate the energy use of the major equipments of the desiccant cooling system for energy analysis. a hypothetical wet market (not the studied wet market) was designed to represent typical modernized wet markets in hong kong to facilitate the evaluations. it was formulated after an the case study market is housed on the ground floor of a 5storey carport in a public housing estate. car parking spaces are provided from 1/f to 4/f with a playground on the roof. the total floor area of the market is 2380 m 2 (53.0 m â 44.9 m). the headroom is 3.5 m high. it is a typical wet market in hong kong which sells all sorts of fresh produce and live seafood and poultry. the desiccant cooling system installed in this market consists of two parallel systems: a dehumidification system comprises of three units of gas-fired desiccant dehumidifiers installed on the roof dedicated to dehumidify oa, and a chilled water system. the chilled water system is not different from a conventional air-conditioning system which consists of two chillers each of 915 kw cooling capacity and the associated circulation pumps. the capacity is sufficient to cover the sensible and latent loads of the three air-handlers for treatment of mixed air with and without the operation of the desiccant dehumidifiers. this serves as a standby provision to ensure relative humidity of the wet market can always be met. to satisfy the minimum ventilation requirement for non-domestic buildings in hong kong [17] , the market is designed for a ventilation rate of 5 air change per hour (ach). the building, design and system characteristics of the case study wet market are summarized in table 1 . in-situ measurements and site surveys, with details as discussed below, were adopted to collect data for simulation validation. a remote monitoring system is deployed to monitor the performance of the desiccant cooling system. it can relay commands signals to carry out remote control of the dehumidifiers. the operation of the system can be viewed either locally on site or in the remote office through the internet. the records (air states in hypothesis are with reference to fig. 2) can be retrieved by this system which includes space air temperature and relative humidity (state r), dried and hot outdoor air temperature and relative humidity (state 1), hourly operation schedule and energy use of major equipments. the monitoring system also enables the set points of relative humidity to be adjusted actively in order to achieve individual needs at a different zone. the system configuration is shown in fig. 4 . the indoor and outdoor air conditions and the energy use of major equipments were retrieved from the remote monitoring system for comparison with simulation results. exemplary results in one summer period are shown in fig. 5 . the average indoor temperature and rh were 25.2 c and 65.8% respectively. in the site surveys, the wet market was divided into three zones. each zone was assigned with a responsible person to record to the number of customers as well as stall retailers in every 60 min intervals, and to ascertain the installed lighting and small power densities. occupancy flow measurements were taken on three consecutive days to cover weekdays and weekends during which the occupancy levels were recorded from 7:00 to 19:00. the hourly average values are summarized in table 2 . the (installed lighting power density) ilpd was ascertained by counting the numbers and types of luminaires installed in the market. there were altogether four types of luminaires including 60 w florescent lamps, 48 w fluorescent lamps, 400 w spot lights and 200 w light bulbs. the surveyed ilpd is summarized in table 3 . the (installed small power density) ispd was determined by a walk-through survey on the power ratings of the fixed and portable appliances including refrigerators, boilers, cooking devices, and ventilation fans. the surveyed ispd is also summarized in table 3 . energy simulation based on the site survey results (including occupancy, lighting and small power densities and occupation patterns), average space air-conditions as indoor set-point conditions (25.2 c dry-bulb and 65.8% rh), building envelop details (table 1) , and physical geometry of the wet-market were input to energyplus for simulating the annual energy use of the major equipments. the power requirement of the chiller was calculated based on the doe-2 model. the doe-2 model is an empirical model and its mathematical expressions are shown in equations (1)e(3), in which capft is the cooling capacity factor; eirft is the energy input to cooling output factor; and eirfplr is the energy input to cooling output factor at part load condition [18e20]. where t cw,s is the supply chilled water temperature; t a,e is the condenser air entering temperature, which is the hourly weather conditions of hong kong in 1995 (the typical meteorological year for hong kong [21] ); plr refers to the chiller's part load ratio; a 1 to f 1 , a 2 to f 2 and a 3 to c 3 are the default coefficients in energyplus. capft, eirft and eirfplr equal to 1 (dimensionless) at reference condition. chiller capacity control is to maintain the designed t cw,s (¼7 c) at constant flow condition. the energy consumption of the desiccant dehumidifier was simulated based on a default performance model in energyplus. it is a generic model for determining the leaving dry bulb temperature (t l , c) and humidity ratio (w l , kg/kg dry air) of the process air and the specific regeneration energy (e r, j/kg h 2 o) and regeneration velocity (v r , m/s) of the desiccant wheel shown mathematically in equation (4). where x is the modeled parameter (i.e. t l , w l , e r and v r ); t e and w e are the process air entering dry bulb temperature ( c) and humidity ratio (kg/kg dry air), which follow the hourly weather conditions of hong kong in 1995 (the typical meteorological year for hong kong [21] ); v is the process air velocity (m/s); and c1 to c16 are the default coefficients in energyplus which correspond to the parameter modeled. equation (4) is valid for the following range of process inlet conditions: dry-bulb temperatures of 1.67 ce48.9 c and humidity ratios of 0.002857 kg/kg to 0.02857 kg/kg. the output of desiccant dehumidifier is to maintain the leaving process air staying at the designed outlet conditions, which in this analysis is moisture content below 0.004 kg/kg dry air. in the simulations, a perfect control and feedback system was assumed such that the output of the equipments would match perfectly with the system cooling demand. table 4 compares the actual and simulated energy use results, illustrating that the difference between the two sets of results is between à3.3% and þ5.8%. the difference is considered acceptable considering that the best achievable uncertainty in the measured energy use as estimated based on the kline and mcclintock's equation [22, 23] is ae0.6% (assuming all instruments conform to ashrae standard 114-1986). the comparison of energy breakdown of major equipments in table 5 also shows that their difference is ae2%. to check consistency of the two sets of energy breakdown, bivariate correlation was conducted. it was found that the correlation coefficient was 0.996 to indicate correlation was significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). to compare the actual and simulated indoor conditions, their standard errors with the set-point conditions in one summer week period (1st to 7th july) are compared in table 6 . their standard errors are shown to be comparable, illustrating the simulated results agree well with the actual conditions. given the acceptable range of the difference and the fundamental consistency in the two sets of data, validations are regarded as acceptable to conclude that it is reasonable to adopt simulations for further investigations. further simulations were conducted to compare the energy performance of desiccant cooling system with the conventional system. in this comparison study, the actual occupancy (table 2) , the measured lighting and small power densities (table 3) , and the installed equipment characteristics of the studied wet market were used in the simulation, but not the space air conditions and ventilation rate for which the ashrae recommendations could not be fulfilled [24] . according to ashrae [25] , the indoor air condition in summer should have a wet bulb temperature below 20 c and dry bulb temperature between 22.5 c and 27 c. thus for the actual space air temperature of 25.2 c, the corresponding relative humidity should be set at 50%. they were therefore set as indoor set-point conditions in the simulation. whilst for ventilation rate, although there has been no guideline for wet markets, it is noted that the actual rate of 5 ach (corresponds to approximately 3.3 l/s/person) is far lower than the ashrae recommended rate for supermarkets of 7.6 l/s/person [24] . given wet markets are much more humid than supermarkets, to avoid the possible microbial growth, ashrae's highest recommended rate for the same air class, i.e. 10.3 l/s/person, has been adopted in the simulation. with regards to the equipment characteristics, the desiccant cooling system was assumed provided with the actual installed equipments ( table 1 ), only that our pilot simulation indicated that table 3 installed lighting power density (ilpd) and installed small power density (ispd) in the wet market. with lowering the space relative humidity, the moisture removal rate of the desiccant dehumidifier was too small and thus an electric heater was added to increase the temperature of the regeneration air for supplementing the dehumidification requirements. electric heater was chosen for their common use in buildings in hong kong [26] . the electric heater capacity was 173 kw determined using energyplus auto size option. the conventional air-conditioning system has been assumed identical to the installed chilled water system (table 1) . however, to enable a side-by-side comparison of the energy performance of the two systems, despite the fact that conventional air-conditioning systems control only the space air temperature, it has been assumed in the simulation that chilled water flow rate of the conventional system can be varied to cool and dehumidify the supply air to a level for achieving the desired space air temperature as well as relative humidity; whilst overcooling is assumed offset by electric reheating to maintain the space air temperature. the electric heater capacity was again determined using energyplus auto size option. through hour-by-hour simulations, the year-round space air temperatures and relative humidities achieved by the use of the desiccant cooling and conventional systems were found. the standard error between the simulated results and the set-point conditions for the two systems is summarized in table 7 . it can be seen that their standard errors are comparable to confirm that the two systems have been side-by-side compared based on same space air conditions. energy use of the conventional and desiccant cooling systems for achieving the same space air conditions is compared in fig. 6 , in which gas energy is used for the burner and the other equipments are powered by electricity. the desiccant cooling system is shown to be 4% more energy efficient than the conventional system. note that this is on the basis that gas is used for regeneration of the desiccant dehumidifier. should "free" thermal energy (for example, waste heat from co-generators or solar energy) is available; the total saving can be increased up to 22% which is comparable to results of a similar installation for supermarket applications [14] . further benefits can also be achieved for the difference in energy cost and (effective emission factor) eef between electricity generation and gas burning. the associated energy cost and environmental benefits will be discussed in the later sections. the consumption breakdowns of major equipments of the two systems are compared in table 8 . bivariate correlation was again conducted. it was found that the correlation coefficient was 0.91 to indicate correlation was significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). the results indicate that chillers are the dominant energy consumer for the two systems, accounting for more than 40% of the total energy use. the evaluations confirm that the simulation results are reasonable, and small energy saving can be achieved by the use of desiccant cooling system. the parametric study is to enable the study of the influence of ventilation requirements on the energy performance, co 2 emission level, and energy cost saving of desiccant cooling system. to provide a basis for the parametric study, a hypothetical wet market representing typical wet markets in hong kong was formulated. a survey of physical characteristics of 19 modernized wet markets in hong kong was conducted. it was found that their areas were ranging from 800 m 2 to 18,650 m 2 , with a mean of 1440 m 2 ; the aspect ratios (ratio of width to length) were between 0.4 and 0.8, with a mean of 0.625; and the headrooms were between 3 m and 4.5 m, with a mean of 4 m. considering the collected data are of equal importance and should be given equal weight, mean values were used to set physical dimensions (w â l â h) of the hypothetical wet market which is 30 m â 48 m â 4 m. given it is common to see humid environment is provided with 100% outdoor air for control of airborne infectious diseases [27] , the range of variations has been set between 10 l/s/person at 10 l/s intervals and complete outdoor air flow rate corresponding to 58 l/s/person. in the parametric study, the equipment capacities were determined using energyplus auto size option; only that the rated performance of major equipments including chillers, fans, pumps, burners and desiccant dehumidifiers were assumed identical to those installed at the studied wet market. fig. 7 indicates the energy use comparison between the two systems under various ventilation rate conditions. it is noted that the energy use of both systems is comparable when the ventilation rate is at 10 l/s/person which is consistent with the comparison study result in the earlier section. this again confirms the reliability of the parametric study results. parametric study results revealed that further increase in ventilation rate lead to a steady increase in energy use. however, the rate of rise for the conventional system was higher than that of the desiccant cooling system when the ventilation rate was increased from 10 l/s/person to 20 l/s/person. the results indicate that at a ventilation rate of 20 l/s per person, energy saving of 8% can be achieved by the use of desiccant cooling system. the significant saving can be explained by the fact that the increase in ventilation rate can offset part of the space cooling load in mild season, but further increase in ventilation rate leads to a sharp increase in space cooling load as shown in fig. 8 . based on the energy consumptions of the conventional (e cr , kwh) and desiccant cooling (e dc , kwh) systems; and the energy split between gas (e dc,gas ) and electricity (e dc,elc ) of desiccant cooling system, the percentage energy cost saving and emission reduction (p) can be predicted based on the use of equation (5) derived as follows: and: where c is the energy cost saving/co 2 emission reduction between the use of desiccant cooling system and conventional system. using equations (5) and (6) becomes: where: w ¼ the ratio of gas consumption to total energy consumption of according to clp and towngas, the electricity and town gas tariffs are $0.86/kwh and $0.6/kwh respectively, and thus (m) in equation (3) is 0.698 (¼0.6/0.86). fig. 9 compares the annual energy costs of the two systems. it is noted that there is larger energy cost saving as compared to energy saving for the desiccant cooling system because gas tariff is lower. the saving ranged between 4% and 10%, and the optimal saving, as expected, occurred when the ventilation rate was at 20 l/s/person. the environmental impact is assessed based on (carbon dioxide) co 2 saving because the amount of co 2 in the atmosphere accounts for about 50% of the global warming effect [28] . the (effective emission factor) eef for electricity generation in hong kong based upon the use of different fuels is estimated to be 0.615 kg/kwh, and that for gas is 0.238 kg/kwh [29] . to estimate the amount of co 2 saving, (m) in equation (3) is 0.387 (¼0.238/0.615). fig. 10 compares the annual co 2 emission level of the two systems. it is noted that similar to energy cost saving, there is larger emission reduction for the desiccant cooling system as compared to energy saving because the effective emission factor for gas is much lower. the reduction ranged between 6% and 13%, and again, the optimal reduction occurred when the ventilation rate was at 20 l/s/person. a desiccant cooling system was installed in a wet market in hong kong. in this study, the actual energy performance of the desiccant cooling system was evaluated. evaluations indicated that use of gas desiccant cooling system was an effective and flexible mean for providing active humidity control. further evaluations based on in-situ measurements, site survey and simulation studies were conducted. in-situ measurements provided the actual energy use data for comparison with simulated results and for simulation validation. further simulations based on actual system, equipment and operating characteristics of the studied wet market were conducted for prediction of energy benefits of desiccant cooling system as compared to conventional air-conditioning system, which was found to be 4%. to evaluate the influence of ventilation rates on the associated energy and energy cost savings as well as co 2 emission reduction of desiccant cooling system, a parametric study under various ventilation rates was performed. the parametric study was conducted based on a hypothetical wet market formulated to represent typical physical characteristics of wet markets in hong kong. the study results revealed that use of desiccant cooling system in wet markets in hot and humid hong kong would lead to energy, energy cost and co 2 emission reduction up to 13% when the ventilation rate is 20 l/s/person. the results of this study would be useful for establishing essential criteria for the use of supplementary energy source with respect to air-conditioning system design. hvac dehumidification systems for thermal comfort: a critical review energy and peak power savings potential of radiant cooling systems dehumidification equipment advances energy savings potential of chilled-ceiling combined with desiccant cooling in hot and humid climates performance improvement of a gas turbine cycle by using a desiccant-based evaporative cooling system experimental analysis on the dehumidification and thermal performance of a desiccant wheel desiccant 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equipment practice note for authorized persons, registered structural engineers and registered geotechnical engineer pnap adm-2. buildings department. hong kong sar government an evaluation of empirically-based models for predicting energy performance of vapor-compression water chillers evaluation of the suitability of empirically-based models for predicting energy performance of centrifugal water chillers with variable chilled water flow energyplus energy simulation software. eere, us department of energy generation of a typical meteorological year for hong kong measurement systems application and design experimental methods for engineers ashrae standard 62. ventilation for acceptable indoor air quality guidelines on performance-based building energy code. electrical and mechanical services department control of airborne infectious diseases in ventilated spaces benchmarking the energy efficiency and greenhouse gases emissions of school buildings in central argentina greenhouse gas emissions in hong kong annual co 2 emission comparison under different ventilation rates the authors wish to thank the commercial & industrial marketing department of the hong kong & china gas company limited for their assistance in preparing this paper. key: cord-311868-40bri19f authors: fattahi, a.; sijm, j.; faaij, a. title: a systemic approach to analyze integrated energy system modeling tools: a review of national models date: 2020-11-30 journal: renewable and sustainable energy reviews doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2020.110195 sha: doc_id: 311868 cord_uid: 40bri19f we reviewed the literature focusing on nineteen integrated energy system models (esms) to: (i) identify the capabilities and shortcomings of current esms to analyze adequately the transition towards a low-carbon energy system; (ii) assess the performance of the selected models by means of the derived criteria, and (iii) discuss some potential solutions to address the esm gaps. this paper delivers three main outcomes. first, we identify key criteria for analyzing current esms and we describe seven current and future low-carbon energy system modeling challenges: the increasing need for flexibility, further electrification, emergence of new technologies, technological learning and efficiency improvements, decentralization, macroeconomic interactions, and the role of social behavior in the energy system transition. these criteria are then translated into required modeling capabilities such as the need for hourly temporal resolution, sectoral coupling technologies (e.g., p2x), technological learning, flexibility technologies, stakeholder behavior, cross border trade, and linking with macroeconomic models. second, a multi-criteria analysis (mca) is used as a framework to identify modeling gaps while clarifying high modeling capabilities of markal, times, remix, primes, and metis. third, to bridge major energy modeling gaps, two conceptual modeling suites are suggested, based on both optimization and simulation methodologies, in which the integrated esm is hard-linked with a regional model and an energy market model and soft-linked with a macroeconomic model. the long-term energy strategy of the eu is aimed at a 80-95% reduction of greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions by 2050, relative to 1990. reaching this goal requires a number of key actions to make a transition from a conventional energy system to a low-carbon energy system [1] . as a result, low-carbon energy system models (esms) have been developed to guide decision-makers on taking long-term robust policy decisions towards energy system transition. however, every esm has been developed to answer specific policy questions, due to the complexity of the energy system and limited computational power. as a result, each model comes with specific capabilities and shortcomings. a large growing body of the literature has listed and classified esms with different aims and scopes. connolly et al. provided a comprehensive overview of suitable esms addressing issues related to renewable energy integration [2] . similarly, bhattacharyya et al. compared energy models to identify their suitability for developing countries [3] . aiming to find the prevalent modeling approaches for the u.k., hall et al. classified and compared esms based on their structure, technological detail, and mathematical approach [4] . to find trends in energy system modeling, lopion et al. reviewed esms in a temporal manner [5] . some reviews have emphasized the role of policy strategies and the corresponding modeling challenges. by grouping energy models into four categories, pfenniger et al. examined the policy challenges they face in each group [6] . horschig et al. reviewed esms to provide a framework for identifying a suitable methodology for the evaluation of renewable energy policies [7] . while savvidis et al. identified the gaps between low-carbon energy policy challenges and modeling capabilities with a focus on electricity market models [8] , ringkjøb et al. classified esms with a focus on the electricity sector [9] . lastly, li et al. reviewed socio-technical models emphasizing societal dynamics [10] . the increasing share of variable renewable energy sources (vres) has caused the low-carbon energy system transition to face several major challenges, such as the increasing need for flexibility, further electrification, emergence of new technologies, technological learning, efficiency improvements, decentralization, macroeconomic interactions, and the deeper involvement of stakeholders in the energy system transition. additionally, some policy questions at the macro level, such as the impact of the energy transition on the macroeconomic indicators (e.g., economic growth and employment), require more indepth integrated analysis, i.e., analyzing the whole energy system consisting of technical, microeconomic, and macroeconomic aspects. however, current esms lack specific capabilities for adequately addressing low-carbon energy system changes that can cause debated conclusions. for instance, one study found no feasible way to achieve a 100% renewable power system by 2050 [11] , while another study claims that a 100% renewable eu power system scenario would require 30% higher annual costs [12] . separate analyses suggested that a 100% renewable eu energy system can be achieved by 2050 with only 12% higher annual energy system costs [13] , while neglecting significant parameters such as electricity grid costs, location of renewables, key technological detail, and flexible electricity demand. brouwer et al. provided a detailed analysis of the west european power sector with high shares of renewables, while neglecting the heat and transport sectors [14] . brown et al. analyzed the cross-sectoral and cross-border integration of renewables in europe, while assuming no national transmission costs, limited efficiency measures, and limited technology options [15] . social aspects of the energy system transition are usually neglected in esms. to this end, some studies included actors' behavior in the energy system from the demand perspective, for example, the thermal demand transition [16] or the efficiency of adaptation measures in households [17] . analyzing each of the major changes in the energy system can be challenging for conventional esms as they need further capabilities such as fine technological detail, high temporal and spatial resolutions, and the presence of stakeholders' behavior. this study concentrates on the energy modeling challenges which result from the increasing share of vres, complexity, and system integration. the transition towards a decarbonized energy system involves other policies such as the higher energy efficiency and change in energy demand, the use of nuclear power supply, and using carbon capture utilization and storage (ccus) technologies. due to the diversity of esms, two major limitations were imposed in this review. first, we focused on energy models at the national level. therefore, the reviewed models were designed for national analysis (or they can be used for national assessments, e.g., primes). second, the models covered all energy system sectors (i.e., residential, services, agriculture, transport, and industrial sectors). the overarching research question of this study is "what are the potential solutions to address the shortcomings of current esms considering current and future low-carbon energy system challenges?". to answer this question, we first describe the current and future lowcarbon energy system modeling challenges. based on these modeling challenges, we identify the required modeling capabilities, such as the need for hourly temporal resolution, sectoral coupling technologies (i.e., p2x), technological learning, flexibility and storage technologies, human behavior, cross border trade, and linking with market and macroeconomic models. the required capabilities were then translated into assessment criteria to be used in the multi-criteria analysis (mca). finally, potential model development solutions are discussed and a modeling suite is proposed as a model-linking solution to address the energy modeling challenges. (fig. 1 ) seven major low-carbon energy system modeling challenges were identified. the challenges were translated into a number of required energy system modeling capabilities and criteria. nineteen models were selected from other reviews ( [2, 4] ). primary inclusion criteria for the selected models (see table 1 ) were: (1) being used at national level, and (2) covering the whole energy system (i.e., integrated energy system models). all the information from the selected models was gathered from officially published documents that may be incomplete or outdated (notably when this paper is published), as models are continuously developed. for each model, a brief description was provided in the appendix section. ahp multi criteria analysis was used as a transparent framework to analyze diverse esms from different perspectives. mca is a methodology that evaluates complex choices (i.e., various criteria, objectives, and indicators), which has been used extensively to analyze energy transition policies [40] . the major advantage of mca is that it provides a rational structure of complex alternatives that presents substantial elements for identifying the desired choice [41] . although mca may have different purposes, we were particularly interested in: first, breaking down complicated energy models into key criteria; and second, identifying the importance or relative weight of each criterion for each alternative. models were ranked based on known criteria, but this did not mean one model was superior to others. therefore, the intention was not to compare models but to identify modeling capabilities and gaps when used for structuring a low-carbon energy system modeling framework. based on the identified modeling gaps, a conceptual modeling suite was proposed to address future low-carbon energy system modeling challenges. the proposed suite included a core integrated energy system model that was hard-linked with a regional model and soft-linked with both an energy market model and a macroeconomic model. energy policies are designed to meet three key objectives, which are providing energy reliability (i.e., supply security), affordability (i.e., economics and job creation), and sustainability (i.e., environment and climate) [42] . with the aim of reviewing electricity market models, savvidis et al. [8] clustered twelve energy policy questions as a basis to quantify the gap between models and policy questions. based on the literature and experts' opinions, we divided energy modeling related policy questions into four categories as follows: 1. technical questions, such as a lack of insights in higher share of intermittent renewables, role of new technologies, and further electrification of the energy system. 2. microeconomic questions, such as a lack of insights in decentralization, human behavior, and liberalized energy markets. 3. macroeconomic questions, such as a lack of insights on economic growth and jobs due to the energy transition. 4. a mix of the above questions, such as lack of insights on the effect of further electrification on energy markets. providing a solution for each policy inquiry can be a challenge for energy system modeling. these challenges can alter the choice of modeling methodology and parameters. in this section, energy modeling challenges and the corresponding modeling parameters are described. some sources of renewable energy such as wind and solar energies have an intermittent characteristic i.e., they are (highly) variable and less predictable [43] . the power generation from intermittent renewables is directly dependent on weather conditions [44] . as wind and solar power generation technologies are becoming more competitive [45] , it is expected that wind and solar power generation will cover up to 30% and 20% of the eu's electricity demand by 2030, respectively ( [46, 47] ). hence, a high share of intermittent renewables in the electricity generation sector is imminent. technically, the power system needs to be in balance at all temporal instances and geographical locations. therefore, the electricity sector should be structured in a way to ensure the balancing of demand and supply. the higher share of intermittent renewables entails variability on the power system balance [48] . solutions to deal with power balance variabilities are called flexibility options (fos) as they provide flexibility to the power system against the variable and uncertain residual load profiles. traditionally, conventional power supplies and grid ancillary services were primary sources of flexibility. however, the power system needs further fos as the share of intermittent renewables in the power generation increases while the share of conventional power supplies -i. e., notably dispatchable gas-fired power plants -decreases. several review papers can be used as a starting point for a review on fos ( [49, 50] ). lund et al. [51] listed different fos as demand side management (dsm), storage, power to x, electricity market designs, conventional supply, grid ancillary services, and infrastructure (e.g., smart grids and microgrids). further, sijm et al. [24] investigated fos by suggesting three fig. 1 . proposed modeling suite approach. the reviewed models and their corresponding developers. causes of the demand for flexibility as the variability of the residual load, the uncertainty of the residual load, and the congestion of the grid. michaelis et al. [52] divided fos based on the residual load in three groups: downward, upward, and shifting flexibility. due to high detail and complications regarding each fo, some studies focused mainly on one or a few technologies. to name a few examples: blanco et al. investigated the cost-optimal share of power to methane in the eu energy transition [53] . the potential of power to heat and power to ammonia in the dutch energy system was investigated by hers et al. [54] and ispt [55] , respectively. some other studies followed an integrated approach that included several fos in different sectors; however, they made several assumptions as the computational capacity was limited (e. g., see ref. [15] ). flexibility options can be divided into five main groups, i.e., storage, demand response (dr), vre curtailment, conventional generation, and cross border trade. instead of analyzing the pros and cons of each option, we were interested in identifying key energy modeling issues regarding each flexibility option. (fig. 2) from a temporal perspective, storage fos can be divided into daily and seasonal storage options. on the one hand, solid-state and flow batteries, such as li-ion, ni-cd, nas, icb, vrb, and znbr batteries, provide high ramp rate with limited capacity, which is suitable for diurnal power storage. modeling these batteries with diurnal temporal resolution can be different to hourly temporal resolution (htr) or hourly time-slices (i.e., grouping hours featuring similar characteristics [56] ). improvements in temporal resolution can have a significant impact on modeling results considering the high share of intermittent renewables (e.g., see ref. [43, 57, 58] ). on the supply side, the uncertainty regarding weather forecasts needs to be implemented in the model as weather conditions have a significant impact on intermittent renewables' generation (e.g., see ref. [59] [60] [61] ). on the other hand, technology options, such as pumped-hydro energy storage (phes), thermal energy storage (tes), large-scale hydrogen storage (lshs), and compressed air energy storage (caes), provide huge capacities that makes them suitable for seasonal energy storage. modeling seasonal storage options requires the inclusion of chronological order (cho) of the temporal parameter together with a fine temporal resolution, as the chronological order of time from summer to winter (and vice versa) determines the charge/discharge of seasonal storage options. dr refers to a set of schemes to shift the demand in a certain time period (e.g., an hour) to another time period of the day, week, or month, either forward or backward [24] . currently, electricity comprises around 22% of eu final energy consumption. power to x (p2x) technology options can provide further dr potentials by linking energy sectors and energy carriers together through converting electricity to other forms of energy, services, or products. in its latest report, the world energy council suggests that p2x will be a key element for the transition to a low-carbon energy system [62] . due to high detail and complications regarding each technology option, several studies focus mainly on one or a few options. at eu level, blanco et al. investigated the cost-optimal share of p2g in the eu energy transition [53] . at the national level, the potential of p2heat [54] and p2ammonia [55] in the dutch energy system was examined. there is a huge potential for demand response in the built environment sector as it is responsible for 40% of energy consumption and 36% of co2 emissions in the eu. while individuals can passively participate in either price-based 1 or incentive-based 2 demand response schemes [63] , proactive participation of consumers can increase market efficiency and reduce price volatility [64] . as heating demand averages 80% of eu household energy consumption, the dr potential can be realized by coupling electricity and heat demands. dr in the built environment can consist of three main components including p2heat technologies (e.g., heat pumps and electric boilers), storage (e.g., thermal tank storage and thermally activate building), and smart controllers (that consider market participation, consumer behavior, and weather forecast) [65] . as p2x technology options bridge two different energy sectors or carriers, analysis of these options requires multi-sectoral modeling, and preferably, integrated energy system modeling. moreover, the hourly temporal resolution of the power sector should be maintained. table 2 summarizes key modeling capabilities and concerning energy sectors and carriers for each p2x technology option. vre curtailment and conventional generation options have been used as fos in the power sector. modeling these options is relatively straightforward, as they do not involve other sectors or energy carriers. still, the hourly temporal resolution remains the key modeling capability for these options. from the energy security perspective, modeling conventional generation may require modeling capacity mechanisms, 3 preferably in combination with cross border power trade [66] . the eu is promoting an internal single electricity market by removing obstacles and trade barriers (see e.g., com/2016/0864 final -2016/0380). "the objective is to ensure a functioning market with fair market access and a high level of consumer protection, as well as adequate levels of interconnection and generation capacity" [67] . one of the products of an internal eu electricity market is the potential to offer flexibility in the power system, as the load can be distributed among a larger group of producers and consumers. sijm et al. identified the cross-border power trade as the largest flexibility potential for the netherlands [68] . similar to other flexibility options, one of the key modeling capabilities here is the hourly temporal resolution. table 2 summarizes the required key modeling capabilities for representing and analyzing flexibility options in esms. the main requirement is the inclusion of (at least) an hourly temporal resolution. models' capabilities can improve substantially by adding seasonal storage options, which require the inclusion of chronological order and different energy carriers. moreover, the inclusion of cross border trade can play an important role in the optimal portfolio of flexibility options, especially in eu countries. higher shares of intermittent renewables affect the reliability of power generation and distribution as residual loads become less predictable. for instance, the prediction accuracy of a single wind turbine generation decreases from 5-7%-20% mean absolute error for the hour ahead and day-ahead forecasts, respectively [69] . the increased uncertainty of the power generation due to higher shares of vre sources requires models to include short-term weather forecast and balancing mechanisms in their calculations. uncertainty analyses gain more importance for long-term esms as they model the energy system for several decades in an uncertain future that can get affected by parameters outside the energy system boundaries. energy system optimization models use four main uncertainty analysis methods, which are monte carlo simulation (mcs), stochastic programming (sp), robust optimization (ro), and modeling to generate alternatives (mga) [70] . in 2017, almost 22% of the eu final energy demand was satisfied by electricity, while heat consumption and transport accounted for the rest. current heating and cooling production in the eu come from fossil fuel sources, as renewable energy sources have a 19.5% share of gross heating and cooling consumption. the transport sector is highly dependent on fossil fuels, with only 7.5% of final energy consumption from renewables. therefore, decarbonization of the heat and transport sectors is getting more attention as it has a higher ghg emissions reduction potential. the eu commission suggests electricity as an alternative fuel for urban and suburban driving in its report entitled clean power for transport [71] . further electrification of heating, cooling, and transport sectors may contribute to ghg reduction, assuming the electricity is generated from renewables rather than fossil fuels [72] . due to the high seasonal variation of heating and cooling demand profiles (mainly in the built environment), further electrification of this sector requires huge seasonal storage capacities or other flexible supply options. currently, there are four main high capacity seasonal storage options, which are pumped hydro energy storage (phes), compressed air energy storage (caes), thermal energy storage (tes), and hydrogen energy storage (hes). by using tes technologies, hourly heat and power demand profiles can be decoupled resulting in a higher potential for dr flexibility option [73] . tes technologies can be divided into three main groups based on their thermodynamic method of storing heat energy: sensible, latent, and chemical heat [74] . sensible heat storage (shs) technologies stock the heat by the difference in the materials' temperature, for example by warming up water or molten salt tank. latent heat storage (lhs) technologies make use of phase-change materials (pcm) in a constant-temperature process to absorb or release thermal energy. chemical heat storage (chs) technologies make use of thermo-chemical materials (tcm) in a reversible endothermic or exothermic (i.e., a chemical reaction in which the heat is absorbed or released, respectively) process, for example, the reversible ammonia dissociation process (i.e., 2nh 3 =n 2 +3h 2 ). xu et al. [75] provided an extensive review of current seasonal thermal energy storage technology options. further electrification of the energy system, which is expected to account for 36-39% of final eu energy consumption by 2050 [76] , generates higher interdependencies between energy sectors. single sector models, which are not able to capture sector coupling effects, may provide misleading conclusions by neglecting these interdependencies. as more sources of intermittent renewables are deployed in the energy system, the further electrification implies further volatility of the energy system that highlights the higher demand for flexibility options. moreover, analyzing sector coupling technologies such as evs (p2mobility), heat pumps and electric boilers (p2heat), and electrolyzers (p2gas) become more important. inclusion of sector coupling options in the esm requires modeling of electricity, transport, and heat sectors simultaneously. due to high variations in the electricity supply, a fine temporal resolution should also be employed in the transport and heat sectors in order to adequately address the flexibility issues of sector coupling. development of new technologies and technological change are key drivers of the transition to a low-carbon energy system and are at the core of most energy-climate policies worldwide [77] . for instance, the price decline of pv cells from 3.37 usd/w to 0.48 usd/w in the last 10 years [78] has made solar energy an economic option independent of subsidies. development of new technologies have made additional renewable energy supply sources available such as advanced biofuels, blue hydrogen, deep geothermal, wave, and seaweed. it also provides innovative opportunities for the further integration of the energy system by implementing p2x technologies, which mainly consist of p2heat, p2g, p2h 2 , p2l, 4 and p2mobility technology options. the seasonal variation of wind and solar increases the need for seasonal storage options such as thermal energy storage and caes. ccs and ccu technologies can be considered as alternative solutions for conventional ghg emission emitters. deep decarbonization of the industrial sector can be achieved by the development of new industrial processes while considering the whole value chain [79] . the development of zero energy buildings [80] and formation of energy-neutral neighborhoods [81] can contribute to substantial energy savings in the built environment. esms currently represent technological learning either exogenously or endogenously [82] . technological change is prevalently expressed as a log-linear equation relating technology cost to its cumulative production units. this one-factor equation provides the learning rate, which is the cost reduction that results from doubling the cumulative produced units of the concerned technology [83] . the prominent alternative is the two-factor equation that incorporates both cumulative produced units and r&d investments [84] . endogenous technological learning (etl) is widely used in long-term esm analysis (e.g., see ref. [85] [86] [87] ). etl can be further elaborated as multi-cluster learning (mcl) and multi-regional learning (mrl) [88] . mcl (or so-called compound learning) describes a cluster of technologies, which share the same component and learn together (e.g. see ref. [89] ). mrl differentiates between region-specific technological learning and global technological learning. the consideration of new technologies and technological learning can greatly affect the energy system modeling results, particularly in long-term models. for instance, heuberger et al. [90] . concluded that the presence of global etl will result in 50% more economically optimal offshore wind capacity by 2050. as part of the clean energy for all europeans package, the eu sets binding targets of at least 32.5% energy efficiency improvement by 2030, relative to the business as usual scenario [91] . this policy emphasizes particularly the built environment as the largest energy consumer in europe. although energy-efficient technologies provide financial and environmental costs reduction, they are not widely adopted by energy consumers. this "energy efficiency gap" can be a consequence of market failures, consumer behavior, and modeling and measurement errors [92] . energy efficiency policies may induce the rebound effect (or backfire), in which energy efficiency improvements lead to an increase in energy use. the rebound effect may have a direct decreasing impact in energy consumption (e.g., a decrease in residential energy consumption), while having an indirect increasing impact (e.g., an increase in energy use by expansion of energy-intensive industries) [93] . providing an accurate estimate of the magnitude of the rebound effect can be challenging ( [94] , while the existence of this effect is a matter of discussion in the literature [95] . although energy-efficient technologies can play an effective role in energy system transition, modeling and analyzing its direct and indirect effects is challenging. energy infrastructure has a key role in the low-carbon energy system transition by facilitating sectoral coupling, integrating renewable energies, improving efficiency, and enabling demand-side management. however, analyzing energy infrastructure can come up with some challenges, such as the complexities of distributing costs and benefits of investments and allocation of risk between investors and consumers [96] . conventional energy infrastructure facilities are usually managed by a monopoly as public goods are not traded in a market. therefore, the clear disaggregation of costs and benefits of infrastructure changes due to energy transition needs further evaluation [97] . long-term infrastructure investment and risk profiles of investors and consumers can be highly diverse as energy infrastructures can undergo drastic changes. moreover, social acceptance of energy infrastructure plays a key role in energy transition, particularly in decentralized infrastructures such as ccus networks, transmission lines, district heating, and local energy storage. modeling the social acceptance of energy infrastructure requires a combination of qualitative and quantitative datasets which can be highly locally dependent [98] . assuming the above-mentioned datasets are available, esms would require specific capabilities to analyze energy infrastructure. the esm should be geographically resolved, as energy infrastructure can have both local and national scales. moreover, there is a need for gis-based geographical resolution of esms as costs and benefits of energy infrastructures can change drastically by their geographical location. over the past decades, energy used to be supplied by large power plants and then transmitted across to the consumers. by emerging renewable energy supplies, a new alternative concept of the energy system has been developed. the decentralized energy system, as the name suggests, is comprised of a large number of small-scale energy suppliers and consumers. a transition from a centralized fossil-fuel and nuclear-based energy system to a decentralized energy system based on intermittent renewable energy sources can be a cost-effective solution for europe [99] . the local energy supply reduces transmission costs, transmission risks, environmental emissions, and to some extent promotes energy security for a sustainable society, with a competitive energy market. on the other hand, it can increase generation costs capacity investment, distribution, and energy reliability. therefore, there is a need to determine the optimal role of energy system decentralization by carefully analyzing costs and opportunities. conventional energy modeling tools were based on the centralized energy system and they have faced difficulties fulfilling the decentralized energy system demands. in conventional energy models, the location of the power plants does not play an important role, while spatial detail may be critically important for renewables. for instance, economic potentials, solar potentials, generation costs, environmental and social impacts, network constraints, and energy storage potentials are some location-dependent factors that can vary greatly across different regions. some other factors such as wind potential and infrastructural costs can vary greatly even with little dislocation. therefore, a fine spatial resolution is required in order to assess the role of locationdependent parameters in the energy system. esms can use national, regional, or gis (geographical information system) based spatial resolution. using a fine spatial resolution can be limited by the available computational power and spatial data. therefore, the choice of spatial resolution is the compromise between these two parameters. due to the huge computational load of gis-based esms, they are usually applied at urban level rather than national level. gisbased models can be used in a preprocessing phase in order to provide spatially resolved datasets for national esms. for instance, the global onshore wind energy potential dataset is produced at approximately 1 km resolution [100] . assuming the availability of spatial data, the computational limitation can be addressed by linking a coarse resolution energy model with a spatial modeling tool such as arcgis (e.g., see ref. [101] ). conventional energy models neglected social stakeholders as the energy system was managed and controlled by central decision-makers. in order to reach a sustainable low-carbon energy system, technical and social insights should be integrated into these models [102, 103] . according to the technology review of the u.s. department of energy, the balance of energy supply and demand is affected as much by individual choices, preferences, and behavior as by technical performance [104] . the reliability of energy models is often low because they are excessively sensitive to cost analysis while ignoring major energy policy drivers such as social equity, politics, and human behavior [105] . several studies have recently indicated the role of social sciences in energy research [106, 107] . social parameters are usually difficult to quantify, and consequently, are usually neglected in quantitative energy models. however, there are practical methods of integrating human aspects into technical energy models, such as the inclusion of prosumers and agent-based modeling. originally coined by alvin toffler in his 1980 book the third wave [108] , prosumer is the mixture of the words producer and consumer, explaining the active role of energy consumers in the production process. the conventional energy grid was dependent on the interaction between supplier and distributor, while consumers play an active role in the decentralized energy system. an important element of this new system is the role of prosumers i.e., consumers who also produce and share surplus of renewable energy generated with the grid and/or other consumers in the community [109] . with the emerging renewable energies at the microscale, prosumers are not only an important stakeholder of the future smart grids but may also play a vital role in peak demand management [110] . however, social acceptance of the decentralized energy system faces several drivers and barriers [111] that need quantification in order to be imported into energy models. the emergence of prosumers has increased the diffusion of social sciences in energy system modeling (e.g., see refs. [112] [113] [114] [115] ). in order to grasp an adequate knowledge of the decentralized energy system, the behavior of the prosumers on energy grid should thus be considered alongside the techno-economical characteristics (e.g., see ref. [116] [117] [118] ). based on the position of the decision-maker, esms can be divided into two main categories. the common approach is the assumption of a system planner who optimizes the single objective function (e.g., system cost minimization). contrary, agent-based models practice decentralized decision making by assuming autonomous agents who decide based on their own objectives. agent-based modeling has been proposed as a suitable modeling approach for complex socio-technical problems [119] and it is used in modeling the wholesale electricity market considering human complexities [120] . ringler et al. reviewed agent-based models considering demand response, distributed generation, and other smart grids paradigms [121] . the term "agent" can be used to describe different types of players in the energy system such as prosumers, power generators, storage operators, or policy makers. agents can optimize their own objective function, which can be based on economic (e.g., capital, npv, and tariffs), technical (e.g., efficiency, emissions, and maximum capacity), and social (e.g., bounded rationality, neighborhood effect, and heterogeneity) factors. including techno-economic factors in the objective function is relatively easier due to the quantitative nature of these parameters, while integrating qualitative social parameters remains a complicated task. qualitative parameters such as the perceived weight of environmental costs and impacts, expected utilities, social networks, and communication can be estimated by socio-demographic factors and behavior curves (e.g., see ref. [122] [123] [124] ). macroeconomic models follow a top-down analytical approach compared to techno-economic esms that use a bottom-up approach. the analytical approach is the way to break a system into elementary elements in order to understand the type of interactions that exist between them. this system reduction may be done in different ways. based on the reduction approach, esms are usually differentiated into three main groups: top-down, bottom-up, and hybrid models. top-down (td) models describe the energy-economy system as a whole to assess the energy and/or climate change policies in monetary units [125] . these models mainly describe the relations between the energy system and the variations in macroeconomic and environmental factors such as economic growth, demographics, employment rate, global warming, and ghg emissions. consequently, top-down models lack detail on current and future technological options which may be relevant for an appropriate assessment of energy policy proposals [126] . macroeconomic equilibrium models are an example of top-down models. bottom-up (bu) models, provide a higher degree of technological detail (in comparison to top-down models). characterized by a rich description of the current and prospective energy supply and end-use technologies, bottom-up models describe energy systems evolutions as resulting from a myriad of decisions on technology adoption [127] . they can compute the least-cost solution of meeting energy balances subject to various systems constraints, such as exogenous emission reduction targets [128] . hybrid models (i.e., linking td and bu models) can be a solution to integrate top-down consistency while maintaining bottom-up detail. the major advantage of top-down models is their consistency with welfare, market, economic growth, and other macroeconomic indicators that leads to a comprehensive understanding of energy policy impacts on the economy of a nation or a region. on the other hand, they lack an appropriate indication of technological progress, energy efficiency developments, non-economical boundaries of the system, and other technical details. instead, bottom-up models describe the energy system with detailed technological properties. moreover, bottom-up models lack feedback from the macro-effects of the technical changes in the overall economy. therefore, closing the gap between top-down and bottom-up energy models results in more consistent modeling outcomes (e.g., see ref. [129] [130] [131] [132] ). model linking is not an exclusive solution for td and bu models. hourcade et al. [133] argued that the three main dimensions of an energy-economy system are: technological explicitness, microeconomic realism, and macroeconomic completeness. the main advantage of model linking (i.e., modeling suite) is the ability to provide consistent results while considering two or all three dimensions. each of these dimensions can be modeled with a number of different models depending on the complexity of the problem. the model linking approach can be classified into three subcategories, based on the level of linking [135] . first, individual stand-alone models are linked together manually meaning that the processing and transferring of the information between models are controlled by the user, preferably in an iterative manner (i.e., soft-linking). second, a reduced version of one model exchanges data with the master model while both running at the same time (i.e., hard-linking). third, a combined methodology features an integrated model through a unified mathematical approach (e.g., mixed complementarity problems [136] ). (fig. 3) helgesen [134] used another classification based on the linking type of models and the terminology proposed by wene (i.e., soft-linking and hard-linking) [137] . the advantages of soft-linking can be summarized as practicality, transparency, and learning, while the advantages of hard-linking are efficiency, scalability, and control [138] . the above discussion of the main challenges of the present and future esms identified several required modeling capabilities, which are summarized in table 3 . in order to review models based on mentioned challenges, required capabilities are grouped into several model assessment criteria in table 4 . it should be noted that the integrated energy system analysis capability is not mentioned further as all reviewed models were integrated. moreover, the linking esms with td models' capability is discussed further in section 5. apart from the criteria that results from emergent challenges of future esms, three additional criteria are considered in table 4 , namely: (i) the underlying methodology of the model to separate calculator models from non-calculator ones; (ii) the source of the model's datasets to measure input-data quality; and (iii) the accessibility and the number of the model's applications to determine the models' use and acceptance. considering the criteria regarding the future low-carbon energy systems and available models, it can be concluded that no perfect model exists. models can be assessed based on the list of criteria such as temporal resolution, spatial resolution, the social aspect, data source quality, accessibility, and application ( table 4 ). the capability of the model in each criterion is given a score from five (highest) to one (lowest) as presented in table 5 . the results are highly dependent on the scores and weights, which are both -to some extent -subjective. readers can alter the results by incorporating new criteria or changing the perspective weights. in the following sections, these modeling capabilities and the corresponding scores are explained. there are two parameters that differ across integrated esms, which are the inclusion of fos and the inclusion of technological learning. therefore, models can be grouped into three groups: (i) no flexibility option and no technological learning that would score one; (ii) the inclusion of either flexibility options or technological learning that would score three; and (iii) the inclusion of flexibility options and technological learning that would score five. esms usually balance the supply and demand on a yearly basis or a limited amount of (hourly) time-slices per year. nevertheless, some models have a higher temporal resolution and balance the system on an hourly basis. reviewed models can be categorized in three groups: (i) temporal resolution on yearly basis that would score one; (ii) time-slice approach that would score three; and (iii) hourly temporal resolution that would score five. some models have the capability to model the regions inside a country. this ability can provide regional insights on energy system policies and vice versa. although the limited computational capacity and the lack of data make it difficult to perform a detailed regional analysis, some models balance the system in different regions inside the country based on different capacities and properties of the regions (e.g., esme in the uk). reviewed models are divided in three groups: (i) models without regional depth that would score one; (ii) models which consider regions that would score four, since it is a considerable improvement; and (iii) models which consider gis data that would score five. the role of social analysis in techno-economic models is usually negligible. however, some modeling tools practice multi-agent programming in order to model qualitative aspects of stakeholders' decision-making practice on energy systems. models are categorized into two groups: (i) models capturing socio-economic parameters only based on demand curves that would score one, and (ii) agent-based models considering a set of decision-making rules for different stakeholders in the energy system that would score five. reviewed models practice a different set of methodologies. in this review, the main categorization between methodologies can be made between the calculator and non-calculator methodologies. therefore, models can be grouped into two groups: (i) calculator models that would score one, and (ii) non-calculator models that would score five. the depth of technical detail and the quality of the data play a crucial role in providing accurate insights into the energy system with regard to new technologies and sectoral coupling. moreover, data access is the first limitation of energy system research as databases are rather private. models can then be divided into five groups: (i) models not indicating a data source that would score one; (ii) models using generalized opensource data that would score two; (iii) models using limited countryspecific data that would score three; (iv) models using detailed opensource data that would score four; and (v) models using detailed country-specific datasets, possibly in combination with global datasets that would score five. open-access models provide an opportunity to test the model and provide feedback. these models are divided into five groups: (i) models which provide no access that would score one; (ii) models which provide limited access that would score two; (iii) models which are commercial that would score three; (iv) models which are open-source but need permission that would score four, and (v) models which are completely open-source and accessible on internet that would score five. a model with more applications and users makes it easier to disseminate and discuss results. models are grouped in five sets: (i) models with no publication yet that would score one; (ii) models applied in one country that would score two; (iii) models applied in two countries that would score three; (iv) models applied across eu countries that would score four, and (v) models which applied in many countries and are well-known that would score five. table 6 demonstrates the mca analysis with equal weight for all criteria. to calculate the score of each model for each criterion, the weighted percentage of that criteria in the model's total score is demonstrated. this percentage is calculated endogenously, as explained by (equation (1) . it indicates the share of the models' score in each criterion out of the models' total score. primes would score high mainly due to the inclusion of social parameters, while the high score of remix is due to its high spatial resolution. these models merely demonstrate improved capabilities compared to others; therefore, it does not mean that these models are "best" models. moreover, some features of the models are not reflected in this table. for instance, metis works complementary to long-term esms as it only simulates one specific year. besides, the mca results can be changed considerably by assigning slightly different scores to various criteria as total scores are relatively close. models such as the markal family and metis demonstrate high scores mainly due to their high granularity; however, they lack the inclusion of social parameters. ensysi includes social parameters while lacking spatial resolution and application. addressing all the policy-induced challenges of the energy system requires a comprehensive esm that is not yet available. therefore, a compromise should be made based on the challenges that the model is designed to address. consequently, a weighted decision matrix can be formed by using the ahp method [139] . in this method, the criteria are rated against each other with respect to the challenges. a consistency ratio (cr) is calculated to indicate the reliability of the weight table. saaty suggests that the crs of more than 0.1 are too inconsistent to be considered reliable [139] . here the challenges are divided into two main groups, first: intermittency, flexibility, and further electrification; and second: human behavior and decentralization. the first group of challenges puts emphasis on the technological detail, the high temporal and spatial resolution; while the second group emphasizes the inclusion of social parameters and high spatial resolution. the pair-wise weighted decision matrix for the first group of challenges is formed in table 7 . in each row, the importance of a criterion compared to other criteria is given a number in this order: 1 would be equal importance, 3 would be fairly important, and 5 would be extremely important. it should be noted that these numbers are entirely subjective, thus, the user can make his own decision matrix. then, the table is normalized and the sum of each row is reported as the weight of the criterion. to calculate the cr, each column of the pair-wise table is multiplied by the corresponding weights. then, the sum of each row is divided by the corresponding weight to get λ values. the cr is then calculated by equation (2), in which n is the number of criteria. repeating the same procedure for the second group of challenges leads to table 8 . in both cases, the low cr indicates low levels of inconsistency in the assigned weights. using the weights in table 8 to update the mca will lead to a slightly different result, presented in table 9 . for the first group, it is expected that models with high scores in technological detail, temporal resolution, and spatial resolution will get higher total scores. the remix model gets a high total score mainly due to the inclusion of high spatial resolution with the use of gis data and the inclusion of key flexibility and storage technologies with the exogenous technological learning. the metis model provides lower technological detail by neglecting technological learning while incorporating hourly temporal resolution and gis-based spatial resolution. for the second group, the inclusion of social parameters and fine spatial resolution gains importance. models with the inclusion of social parameters such as primes and ensysi get higher scores. although the metis model does not include social parameters, it keeps a high score due to its fine spatial resolution. irrespective of the assigned weights, we find four models at the top of the mca table which are remix, primes, metis, and the markal family models. these models had high scores in nearly all criteria, while a low score in one criterion (for instance, lack of social parameters for remix) is compensated with a high score in another criteria (high temporal and spatial resolution). these four models were either developed recently (e.g., remix and metis) or are under constant development (e.g., markal family and primes). it shows how integrated energy system modeling points towards the models with improved capabilities in all the criteria. other models keep the same ranking position except for iwes, ensysi, and energyplan, which changed their position considerably (i. e., more than two steps change). this position change can be explained by the asymmetry of these models' scores in the mca table. for instance, the iwes model gets a high score in the first four criteria while getting a low score in the last four criteria. the mca represents an overview of the current state of esms with regard to low-carbon energy system modeling challenges. however, there is a need for adding new capabilities to current esms in order to address future modeling challenges. in the next section, we discuss two potential modeling solutions based on our observation from the current state. the overall solution is to expand single models and/or to link different models. it is not practical to decide on the best model that addresses challenges regarding low-carbon energy systems, as each model has specific pros and cons. from a techno-economic point of view, the mca indicates that for modeling the low-carbon energy system, current models require specific capabilities such as hourly temporal resolution, regional spatial resolution, inclusion of sectoral coupling technologies, technological learning, and inclusion of social parameters. there are major gaps between policy questions and modeling capabilities in the criteria, which were used to assess the models' performance. however, these criteria mainly focus on the technical policy questions rather than the entire technical, microeconomic, and macroeconomic aspects. although techno-economic models are rich in detail, they lack the capability to answer microeconomic and macroeconomic policy questions. therefore, specific models, such as energy market models and general equilibrium models, have been developed. due to the strong interconnection between energy and economy, mixed policy questions arise that require analyzing the technical, microeconomic, and note: percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. macroeconomic aspects of the energy-economy system. such analysis can be conducted either by developing single models or by combining different models (i.e., soft-linking, hard-linking, or integrating). current single models can be developed and/or extended by incorporating further capabilities up to acceptable computational limits. considering the limitations, the modeler makes choices and/or tradeoffs on extensions to the model. developing a single model that can cover all the mentioned gaps could face limitations, such as complicated mathematical methodology and limited computational capacities (except generic limitations such as high data needs and lack of transparency). some common energy system modeling methodologies are optimization, simulation, accounting, multi-agent, and equilibrium. each mathematical methodology can be developed to answer specific energy modeling questions. integrating two different methodologies can be mathematically very complicated (e.g., mixed complementarity problems in which the optimization and equilibrium formulations are mixed) or not feasible (e.g., mixing optimization and simulation formulations). therefore, single esms are naturally limited by their underlying methodology. one of the main limitations for improving the temporal and geographical resolution of esms is the computational capacity. the computational limitation can be addressed either by hardware or software development. (fig. 4) hardware development follows an exponential growth and relates to improvements in the number of transistors, clock frequency, and power consumption of processors. on the other hand, software methods can be divided into solver-related and modelspecific methods to improve computing times of linear optimization esms [140] . solver-related methods focus on improving the solving methodology by using different off-the-shelf algorithms, such as lindo, cplex, gurubi, and mosek, or by practicing customized algorithms, such as bender's decomposition 5 and parallelization. 6 model-specific methods relate to heuristic methods, such as clustering, model reduction, decomposition, and parallelization. hardware-related developments proceed at a specific pace that is usually not affected by energy system modelers as users. solver-related developments are followed by a few energy system modelers (e.g., see the beam-me project [184]), while the rest of the energy system modeling community follows model reduction and clustering methods that can be applied on temporal resolution, spatial resolution, and technological detail (e.g., see [185] ). depending on the research questions, energy system modelers reduce or coarsen the resolution of the model in order to provide an answer in an adequate timeframe. therefore, a trade-off should be made between different modeling capabilities by making smart assumptions. an alternative approach to overcome the limitations of single model development is to form a modeling suite. model linking can be done between any set of desired models in order to enhance modeling capabilities. however, two types of energy model linking are more frequent in the literature: (1) linking bu and td models such as optimization energy system models (oesms) linked with cge models, and (2) linking two bu models such as oesms combined with energy market models (i. e., unit commitment or dispatch models). although linking models provides further modeling capabilities, it comes with certain challenges [141] such as the identification of connection points in soft-linking (e.g., see ref. [142] ), convergent solution in soft-linking (e.g., see ref. [143] ), and mathematical formulation for integrated linking (e.g., see ref. [144, 145] ). in summary, linking models can be resource-intensive as it requires the knowledge of different modeling frameworks. each model has its own set of assumptions and methodologies, which makes it complicated to maintain the harmonization of modeling assumptions in all steps of linking. the lack of harmonization in assumptions may result in inconsistent results from linked models. although this process seems straightforward, it is rather a puzzling procedure as esms are moderately complex. therefore, having an overview of different energy models and their capabilities is essential to provide the desired modeling suite. a linking approach is proposed for addressing current energy system modeling gaps. table 10 provides an overview of identified energy modeling gaps and corresponding linking suggestions. these suggestions can form a modeling suite that involves four different models, namely, the energy system model (esm), the energy market model (emm), the macroeconomic model (mem), and the socio-spatial model (ssm). the suggestions in table 10 can be framed in two separate modeling suites based on the methodology of the core esm. (fig. 6) the first modeling suite can be formed around an optimization esm (oesm) that provides the cost-optimal state of the energy system assuming a fully rational central social welfare planner. the second modeling suite uses a socio-technical esm (stesm) that demonstrates a more realistic state of the energy system by assuming profit maximizer agents who consider social decision-making parameters in their decision-making process. such parameters include behavioral economics, bounded rationality, neighborhood effect, and technology diffusion curve. the core component of the suggested modeling suite is the presence of a central techno-economic esm as an information processor hub that exchanges the outputs with different models. based on the current state of the energy system and future scenarios, the esm can determine the technology and energy mix, commodity and energy prices, amount and price of emissions, and total energy system cost. however, this standalone analysis is based on specific scenario assumptions of demand profiles, energy import and export profiles, decentralized energy supply prospects, and macroeconomic expectations. it is suggested to use linear relations (i.e., linear optimization methodology) to keep the computational load manageable. while the optimization framework determines the theoretically optimal state of the energy system, the simulation methodology can demonstrate feasible pathways to reach the optimal state. therefore, by comparing the results of the optimization and simulation frameworks, the gap between the optimal solution and the feasible solution (symbolically demonstrated in fig. 5 ) can be identified. several policy parameters can affect the width of this gap by bringing the feasible solution close to the optimal one. therefore, the analysis of the simulation and the optimization methodologies can provide a better understanding of the role of each parameter in reaching the optimal state of the energy system policy targets. based on the review and the mca, several optimization esms such as times and remix can be used as the core esm of the modeling suite, due to their fine temporal resolution and ample technological detail. agentbased simulation esms are not as common as optimization esms; therefore, from the reviewed models, only ensysi and primes can be selected as simulation core esms. current esms lack the capability to model the regional implications of the energy system such as decentralized supply and demand, infrastructure costs and benefits, land use, and resource allocation. although some local energy system models such as energis [146] and gisa sol [147] provide geographically resolved energy system analysis, they lack the interaction with other country regions. as regional variations of the energy system can have drastic effects on the system itself, it is suggested to hard-link the regional model into the core esm. the geographical resolution of esms can be improved depending on the research questions and available resources. for instance, after identifying spatially sensitive parameters of the energy system, such as heat supply location, renewable power production, transmission capacity expansion, and storage infrastructure, sahoo et al. provided a framework to integrate them into an esm (i.e., the opera model) [148] . focusing on infrastructure, van den broek et al. clustered the co 2 source regions using the arcgis software and then incorporated the spatially resolved data into the markal-nl-uu as the optimization-based esm [149] . for well-connected countries, it is suggested to hard-link an emm with the core esm to capture the flexibility potential of the cross-border energy trade, albeit some studies that use a soft-linking approach (e.g., see ref. [150, 151] ). in particular, for eu countries, this hard-linking is necessary as the interconnection flexibility option (fo) can be in direct competition with domestic fos such as demand response or storage. emms usually use the milp underlying methodology in order to model unit commitment; therefore, the inclusion of emm inside esm can be computationally intensive. it is suggested to use a linear optimization methodology in accordance with the core esm to reduce computational load, while reaching a fair estimate of the energy import and export flows, particularly for electricity. assuming the regional and interconnection capabilities are integrated into the core esm, in order to capture consistent economic analysis, one soft-linking loop is suggested as follows. this loop incorporates a macroeconomic model, which keeps demand and supply of commodities in equilibrium based on the statistical economic data such as capital stocks and investments, demographics, labor market, and trade and taxes. the esm outputs, such as energy prices, energy mix, and emissions are fed into the mem to update the supply and demand and price data of energy and fuel commodities. the mem provides the equilibrium demographics, gdp and income, monetary flows between economic sectors, trade, and employment rate. this loop can be performed once or it can continue until the results reach a convergence criterion, which is a user-defined criterion that determines the maximum gap between the results of two models. moreover, mem outputs can feed into an abm simulation esm in table 10 model development and model linking suggestions based on the identified energy modeling gaps. lack of sectoral coupling technologies between electricity, heat, and transport sectors. developing a long-term planning optimization energy system model (esm) that involves all energy sectors, hourly temporal resolution, regional spatial resolution, seasonal storage options, and technological learning lack of new seasonal storage technology options such as tes and hes. lack of endogenous technological learning rates. lack of hourly temporal resolution for capturing intermittent renewables and corresponding potentials. lack of regional spatial resolution for analyzing energy flows between regions across a country. hard-linking esm with a regional energy system model (resm) that involves resolved spatial resolution, land use analysis, and infrastructure analysis lack of fine geographical resolution options such as gis, fine mesh, and clustering for analyzing decentralized intermittent supply and infrastructure costs and benefits lack of spatially resolved datasets such as infrastructure and local storage. simplistic modeling of human behavior in the current abms. developing an abm simulation socio-technical energy model (stesm) that involves stakeholders' behavior, local and neighborhood effects, bounded rationality, and perceived environmental values. the focus of current datasets is only on technological detail, rather than stakeholders' behavior. high dependence of esms on consumer load profiles. lack of national energy modeling consistency with a european (or an international) energy market. hard-linking esm with an international (or european) energy market model (emm) that involves an optimal dispatch electricity market, the gas and oil market, hourly temporal resolution, regional spatial resolution, and a detailed generation database lack of energy modeling consistency with macroeconomic indicators which consumer demand profiles are generated based on demographics, income, and employment (e.g., see ref. [152] ). the stesm analyzes the social aspects of the energy system such as stakeholders' behavior, bounded rationality, imperfect communication, and environmental perceived value. the choice of models, connection points, and scenarios are dependent on the aims of the energy system modeling, available expertise and resources, and access to models and datasets. in summary, we identified the capabilities and shortcomings of current esms to analyze adequately the transition towards a low-carbon energy system. in this regard, we described seven current and future low-carbon energy system modeling challenges. finally, to bridge major energy modeling gaps, two conceptual modeling suites are suggested, based on both optimization and simulation methodologies, in which the integrated esm is hard-linked with a regional model and an energy market model and soft-linked with a macroeconomic model. model development and linking choices can be affected by major changes in the energy system outlook. for instance, the current covid-19 situation can have major impacts on economic activities, indicating the importance of soft-linking with macroeconomic models. a limitation of this study is that all the information about models has been gathered from published documents, which might be outdated as models are constantly under development. therefore, this review provides a rather static view on esms. only a limited number of energy system models was presented in this review, which is mainly due to limited time, resources, and access to modeling databases. other challenges of low-carbon energy systems modeling not included here are the need for energy policy harmonization, energy market design, business models of new technologies, legislation and legal aspect of the energy transition, and social acceptance implications of the energy transition. another limitation of this study is the subjective assignation of scores with the mca, however, a clear explanation for the assignation of scores 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exercises between times, power system models and housing stock models linking agent-based energy market with computable general equilibrium model: an integrated approach to climate-economy-energy system the authors would like to thank paul koutstaal, pascal wissink, joost van stralen, somadutta sahoo, ö zge ö zdemir, bert daniels, german morales-españa, and other team members of the estrac project and other anonymous reviewers and the editor for their constructive comments, conversations, and feedback. the authors wish to acknowledge the support given by the estrac integrated energy system analysis project financed by the new energy coalition (finance code: 656039). the views expressed here are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the project partners or the policies of the funding partners. supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi. org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110195. optimization-based or simulation-based conceptual model linking framework for the low-carbon energy system modeling suite. key: cord-310872-2z1wnj63 authors: spellberg, brad title: alignment with market forces: the “re-whithering” of infectious diseases date: 2020-06-20 journal: open forum infect dis doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofaa245 sha: doc_id: 310872 cord_uid: 2z1wnj63 given constant emergence of new infectious threats, infectious diseases (id) should be one of the most attractive medical specialties to students and trainees. yet, id fellowship programs continue to not fill in the match, and id remains among the lowest paid specialties. approximately 35 years after dr. petersdorf first asked the question, we find ourselves once again wondering, “whither infectious diseases?” to answer this question, and align with predominant us market forces, id experts should push for the following: (1) restrictions regarding utilization of id diagnostics and antimicrobial agents; (2) pay-for-performance measures regarding antimicrobial prescribing rates; and (3) healthcare reform as called for by the american college of physicians to move away from fee-for-service medicine. einstein said, “continuing to do the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity.” we must move towards alignment with market forces, to benefit our patients, society, and our colleagues. the last several decades have continually reminded the world of how important infectious diseases (id) remain to the health and welfare of people all over the planet. anthrax scared americans in 2001. severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) terrified the world in 2003. in 2004, west nile virus became a global problem, from seemingly out of nowhere. in the first decade of the 21st century, id experts brought forth astounding advances in diagnostics and therapeutics that converted human immunodeficiency virus (hiv)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome from a death sentence to a manageable, chronic disease. meanwhile, the world was in the midst of a burgeoning crisis of rising antibiotic resistance and a collapse of new antibiotic development. in the years that followed, the 2009 h1n1 influenza pandemic struck. new therapies became available that made hepatitis c virus curable. ebola once again terrified the world in 2014, followed by the zika scare in 2015. moreover, years of intensive id effort on the antibiotic resistance front have begun to pay off, with promising very recent declines in antibiotic resistance rates, combined with a surge of new antibiotics becoming available [1] [2] [3] . and then of course, the once-ina-century global coronavirus 2019 (covid-19) pandemic struck [4] [5] [6] . within weeks, diagnostics became available for sars coronavirus 2, within months therapeutics began to become available, and we anticipate a vaccine within 1 to 2 years. infectious diseases experts once again became media celebrities. history has shown us that new infectious threats continually emerge, and successes have continually followed. surely then, the id community must be now basking in the glow of recognition and the public need for top talent to come into the id field. indeed, some might speculate that the covid-19 pandemic alone would lure top talent into the field, as hiv did 30 years earlier-or not. after decades of failed efforts to change, id remains very near the bottom of the renumeration ladder amongst physicians [7] . this poor remuneration is in an era of ever-worsening, crushing medical student debt, the average of which has doubled since 2000 [8] . indeed, id practitioners are 1 of only 2 subspecialties remunerated below general internists in the united states [8] , raising the obvious questionwhy should top talent choose to spend 2 or more additional years in training to end up making less money? whether students and residents are interested in the concepts of id or not, the ratio of debt to income for id relative to other specialties is a substantial deterrent to top talent entering the field [9] . in 2019, despite years of effort to reverse the trend, more than one third of us id fellowships did not fill, and 20% did not match any candidates at all [10] . what has gone wrong? the answer is very simple. the field of id has never adapted to the reality of market forces. in 1977, dr. robert petersdorf, legendary id physician and luminary of internal medicine, published an article in the new england journal of medicine in which he predicted the end of id as a specialty. his exact quote was, "even with my personal loyalty to infectious diseases, i cannot conceive of the need for 309 more infectious disease experts [ie, graduating fellows] unless they spend their time culturing each other" [11] . nearly a decade later, dr. petersdorf expanded on this theme in an incredibly prescient keynote lecture at the annual meeting of the infectious diseases society of america titled, "whither infectious diseases? memories, manpower, and money" [12] . he said, "in a fee-for-service environment…infectious disease practitioners have difficulty in making a living. there are few or no procedures. there is a lot of uncompensated phone time, and there is the need to visit several hospitals and spend a good deal of time traveling. in academic medical centers, infectious disease divisions are almost invariably loss leaders, and i know of few that are not heavily supported by university salaries, hospital salaries, and grants. infectious disease divisions do not earn enough in practice to make a go of it and also require subsidies from the higher-earning divisions in their parent departments" [12] . these realities called out by dr. pedersdorf 34 years ago remain just as true today, leading us to again ask in 2020, whither infectious diseases? some years ago, drs. liise-anne pirofski and arturo casadevall pointed out to me another flash of insight. one of the predominant handicaps of the id clinical specialty is that there is nothing we do that no one else can do. only oncologists prescribe cancer chemotherapy. only cardiologists do cardiac caths. only surgeons take patients to the operating room. what is it that only id practitioners do? we know antibiotics better than anyone, but anyone, up to and including the nurse practitioner at the walk-in clinic in the pharmacy on the corner, can prescribe them. we understand how to establish a microbial etiology of infections, and distinguish them from colonization, but there is little financial pressure on health systems to value this skill. we know hiv care better than anyone, but hiv fellows can be generalists, not subspecialists. viral pandemics may be infections, but they hit emergency medicine, hospitalists, critical care doctors, and primary care doctors harder than they hit the id specialists. there are no diagnostic tests or therapeutic options that only we can prescribe. add to this realization the fact that in a fee-for-service environment, the operating budgets of hospitals are highly dependent on high margin procedures [13] [14] [15] , not cognitive encounters. infectious diseases practitioners may be better at diagnosing and treating infections than those who practice other specialties, but to what financial advantage to healthcare systems that hang on by their fingernails with operating margins under 2% [16, 17] ? health systems have little room for expansion of costs into low return-on-investment service lines. how can the advantages id experts bring be monetized to justify higher id salaries? i am the chief medical officer of a large public hospital. like my colleagues in the c suite, i am responsible for ensuring that our hospital stays as close to within budget as is humanly possible [18] . running deeply in the red threatens hospital closure, harming the hundreds of thousands of patients per year we serve, and putting out of work 10 000 people. so, even though i am an id expert and love my clinical and research work, is it realistic to think that i can artificially inflate id salaries at my hospital above the level the market will bear? no, it is not. and if you cannot convince me to do that, good luck convincing anyone else. infectious diseases practitioners simply do not bring in revenue in a way that makes them a priority to health system operating margins in a fee-for-service environment. the encounter-based, fee-for-service healthcare payment model inherently cripples cognitive specialties' remuneration relative to proceduralists. cognitive services will never compete with the value that procedural encounters bring in a fee-for-service healthcare system. market forces are intrinsically against us. dr. petersdorf understood this nearly 35 years ago. for years, id representatives have lobbied for better reimbursement for id practitioners through the medicare relative value scale (rvs) update committee (ruc). these efforts are meritorious and should and will continue. nevertheless, they would be likely much more effective if the lobbing efforts were backed by and aligned with market forces. for example, only an orthopedic surgeon can implant an artificial hip; they have a monopoly, with no competition. if their reimbursement fell such that the specialty became less attractive, and the number of trained orthopedic surgeons fell, patients would demand access, and the imbalance of supply-demand for hip surgeries would intrinsically drive up reimbursement. however, all licensed practitioners function as competition for id. if the number of id specialists decline, we may argue that quality of care will decline, but there will be plenty of other practitioners who can do what the id practitioners can do. there is no market-forces alignment with lobbying for higher rvu reimbursement. it is just an argument of merit and quality, with no economic market force behind it. are there data that support this assertion? absolutely. a recent analysis underscored how few id specialists there are across the united states to handle the covid-19 pandemic [19] . years of lobbying for rvu increases have not led to changes in relative reimbursement or reversed the decline in fellowship applicants and trained id physicians. in the absence of id specialists, many other types of providers care for patients with covid-19. the covid-19 pandemic has not led to reversal of the problem, but rather it further exposed this inequity. what we must do is change the interaction between our specialty and the healthcare system such that id work becomes aligned with market forces. there are practical solutions at hand, but they will require legal and/or regulatory changes. therefore, they will require a shift in emphasis of our specialty lobbying efforts. these solutions would allow our specialty to work in concert with market forces rather than against them. first, id practitioners have unique expertise in the diagnosis and treatment of infections, which can lead to less antimicrobial resistance and superinfections, better outcomes, and lower cost for patients and health systems. unfortunately, that unique expertise is hard to monetize. anyone can read the result of a diagnostic or antimicrobial susceptibility study in the electronic medical record. in addition, anyone can prescribe an antimicrobial agent. however, only an expert understands whether further diagnostics (eg, molecular studies) are necessary to benefit the patient and/or public health. it also takes an expert to know specifically what to prescribe and, perhaps more importantly, when not too. nevertheless, nothing stops nonexperts from doing this work now, leaving id practitioners unable to monetize that hard-earned expertise. granting the ability to any licensed practitioner, with no specialty training, to interpret complex diagnostic or susceptibility results, or prescribe powerful, new antimicrobial agents, seems antithetical to health of the public [20] . only those who have undergone specialized id training, whether by accredited training or certification course, should be allowed (eg, via law, regulation, or medical staff credentialing) to interpret diagnostic/ susceptibility results or prescribe newly approved antimicrobial agents [20] [21] [22] . this change would have the potential to improve prescriptions, decrease antibiotic abuse, diminish selective pressure driving antibiotic resistance, and decrease cost. all of this would be of great advantage to our patients and to public health. it would also have the effect of finally granting to id practitioners alignment with market forces, by providing us something that only we can do, much as oncologists and proceduralists have long had. second, we must push to mandate public reporting of antimicrobial prescriptions at the system level and linking pay for performance measures to such reporting [21, 22] . systems that use at the highest end of antimicrobial agents, adjusted for disease severity, should receive payment penalties, whereas systems at the lower end receive payment bonuses. this construct is built upon the success of infection prevention, in which public reporting and pay-for-performance measures have successfully driven down hospital-acquired infection rates. as national-level financial penalties and rewards come into play, they will motivate health system c-suites to prioritize hiring and funding id experts to lead and staff antibiotic stewardship programs to improve the financial situation of the health systems [18] . we would finally achieve true alignment with id expertise and market forces governing health system operating margins. moreover, society would benefit from diminished selective pressure driving resistance, prolonging the efficacy of life-saving therapies (including future biological therapies such as phage or immune modulatory therapy). third, we should be pushing for true reform to the payment structure of our healthcare system. the us healthcare system is by far the most expensive in the world, by any measure, and for that cost it delivers bad outcomes, including higher mortality rates and shorter life spans than peer nations [23] . the fee-forservice basis of payment is a core driver of this high cost and bad value. paying for each episode of care, and in particular paying more for expensive, potentially dangerous procedures, encourages excess care delivery, which drives the operating margins of healthcare delivery entities [23] . expensive, high volume, dangerous procedural-based, fee-for-service encounters may be bankrupting the united states as a whole, but they make money for hospitals and health systems. that market force discrepancy between societal and health system advantage is not in the best interests of patients, doctors, or society as a whole. in contrast, payments that are made for population-based healthcare favor judicious use of resources to maximize benefit to society. cognitive specialists become the gatekeepers of precious limited resources available for healthcare in the latter model. therefore, in the reformed model, cognitive specialists who keep people from becoming sick and minimize waste and harm become more valuable to healthcare payers than those who conduct expensive procedures on patients who are already sick. the american college of physicians has recently called for fundamental healthcare reform in the united states based on just this principle [24] [25] [26] [27] . our specialty has been unfortunately silent in the aftermath of this call for change, to our own detriment. infectious diseases will always plague the world. the question is, how will our subspecialty evolve over time when our work and remuneration are in opposition to the predominant feefor-service market forces that govern us healthcare? years of pressing for incremental tweaks to physician reimbursement in this system have thus far not worked to change the equation. after so many years of effort, continuing to lobby without alignment with market forces seems unlikely to change reimbursement. if we want to fundamentally change the equation of id practitioner value in the us healthcare system, we need to change id work and remuneration to become aligned with market forces. this situation can be remedied with advocacy and lobbying, and it must be. furthermore, once having mustered the political will to do so, the case should be easy to make to the public, because it is clearly in the public's and our patients' best interest to have id experts as the stewards of infectious-related diagnostic and therapeutic modalities. we can limit waste and improve precision, which improve patient and population outcomes, and at lower cost to the system at large. however, thus far, we have lacked the will to make this case. it is time to do so. ensuring sustainability of needed antibiotics: aiming for the dart board sustainable discovery and development of antibiotics -is a nonprofit approach the future? multidrug-resistant bacterial infections in u.s. hospitalized patients covid-19-new insights on a rapidly changing epidemic coronavirus infections-more than just the common cold covid-19 -navigating the uncharted average student loan debt for medical school charting the future of infectious disease: anticipating and addressing the supply and demand mismatch id-fellowship-match-results-slight-declinesfrom-last-year/id the doctors' dilemma whither infectious diseases? memories, manpower, and money sb170-operating-room-procedures-united-states-2011. pdf. accessed 23 the list is in: hospitals' most profitable specialties factors of u.s. hospitals associated with improved profit margins: an observational study operating margins stabilize, but not-for-profit hospitals still vulnerable moody's finds how to pitch an antibiotic stewardship program to the hospital c-suite where is the id in covid-19? new societal approaches to empowering antibiotic stewardship the future of antibiotics and resistance seven ways to preserve the miracle of antibiotics bankrupt, and dying: how to solve the great american healthcare rip-off the american college of physicians' endorsement of single-payer reform: a sea change for the medical profession medical practice and quality committee of the american college of physicians. envisioning a better u.s. health care system for all: health care delivery and payment system reforms health and public policy committee and medical practice and quality committee of the american college of physicians. envisioning a better u.s. health care system for all: a call to action by the american college of physicians engel ls; health and public policy committee of the american college of physicians. envisioning a better u.s. health care system for all: coverage and cost of care key: cord-335166-60lfjfvs authors: hanney, stephen r.; kanya, lucy; pokhrel, subhash; jones, teresa h.; boaz, annette title: how to strengthen a health research system: who’s review, whose literature and who is providing leadership? date: 2020-06-23 journal: health res policy syst doi: 10.1186/s12961-020-00581-1 sha: doc_id: 335166 cord_uid: 60lfjfvs background: health research is important for the achievement of the sustainable development goals. however, there are many challenges facing health research, including securing sufficient funds, building capacity, producing research findings and using both local and global evidence, and avoiding waste. a who initiative addressed these challenges by developing a conceptual framework with four functions to guide the development of national health research systems. despite some progress, more is needed before health research systems can meet their full potential of improving health systems. the who regional office for europe commissioned an evidence synthesis of the systems-level literature. this opinion piece considers its findings before reflecting on the vast additional literature available on the range of specific health research system functions related to the various challenges. finally, it considers who should lead research system strengthening. main text: the evidence synthesis identifies two main approaches for strengthening national health research systems, namely implementing comprehensive and coherent strategies and participation in partnerships. the literature describing these approaches at the systems level also provides data on ways to strengthen each of the four functions of governance, securing financing, capacity-building, and production and use of research. countries effectively implementing strategies include england, ireland and rwanda, whereas west africa experienced effective partnerships. recommended policy approaches for system strengthening are context specific. the vast literature on each function and the ever-growing evidence-base are illustrated by considering papers in just one key journal, health research policy and systems, and analysing the contribution of two national studies. a review of the functions of the iranian system identifies over 200 relevant and mostly national records; an analysis of the creation of the english national institute for health research describes the key leadership role played by the health department. furthermore, who is playing leadership roles in helping coordinate partnerships within and across health research systems that have been attempting to tackle the covid-19 crisis. conclusions: the evidence synthesis provides a firm basis for decision-making by policy-makers and research leaders looking to strengthen national health research systems within their own national context. it identifies five crucial policy approaches — conducting situation analysis, sustaining a comprehensive strategy, engaging stakeholders, evaluating impacts on health systems, and partnership participation. the vast and ever-growing additional literature could provide further perspectives, including on crucial leadership roles for health ministries. keywords: biomedical research, capacity-building, evidence-based practice, health ministries, health research systems, health services research, policy-making, priority-setting, research utilisation, sustainable development goals, translational medical research background interest in strengthening health research systems has intensified following increasing recognition of the importance of research in achieving key goals such as universal health coverage [1] and the sustainable development goals (sdgs) [2] . however, achieving progress in health research faces many challenges, including securing sufficient funds [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] , building and retaining capacity [3, 7, [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] , producing research findings, and using both local and global evidence [1, [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] . chalmers and glasziou [21] dramatically highlighted the extent of the challenges facing health research by claiming, in 2009, that even where there was funding and capacity, up to 85% of all biomedical research was wasted because it asked the wrong questions, was poorly designed, or was either not published or poorly reported, with only about 50% of studies being published in full. many of these challenges have long been recognised and the adoption of a systems approach advocated. in 2000, the bangkok declaration on health research for development promoted the importance of a systems approach, following consideration of how a health research system could "be integrated with a nation's health development plan" [15] . it suggested that establishing and strengthening an effective health research system needed coherent and coordinated health research strategies [15] . national strategies should have specific combinations of various health research system components, tailored to the country's circumstances. the who's knowledge for better health initiative involved further work on these issues [3, 16] . the mexico statement on health research, issued in 2004 by a ministerial summit, called for nations to take actions to strengthen their national health research systems (nhrss). it was endorsed in 2005 by the fifty-eighth world health assembly in a resolution committing its member states to strengthening their nhrss as a pathway to improve their overall health system [22] . as part of the initiative, pang et al. [3] developed a conceptual framework to guide the analysis and strengthening of health research systems, including development of a health research strategy. while this can be used for planning, monitoring and evaluation of health research systems, it did not claim to provide a precise blueprint. the framework defined a health research system as "the people, institutions, and activities whose primary purpose in relation to research is to generate high-quality knowledge that can be used to promote, restore, and/or maintain the health status of populations; it should include the mechanisms adopted to encourage the utilization of research" [3] . the framework indicates the range of constituent components and how they can best be brought together into a coherent system. it identified four main functions for an effective system, namely stewardship, financing, capacity-building (or creating and sustaining resources), and producing and using research [3] . each function is defined by operational components and consists of one or more of a total of nine such components. since then, progress is evidenced by analyses of developments in individual countries, including the national institute for health research (nihr) in england [23] [24] [25] , and in repeat surveys conducted in various who regions, including africa [4, 26, 27] and the pan-american health organization (paho) [28] . however, as reported by those surveys and other publications, many challenges remain. for example, in february 2020 a new analysis by the who global observatory on health r&d examined health research funding, concluding that "neglected diseases such as those on the who list of neglected tropical diseases remain very neglected in terms of r&d investments" [29] . nevertheless, there are various initiatives underway, including in who's regional office for europe, which commissioned an evidence synthesis on the topic as part of its action plan to strengthen the use of evidence, information and research for policy-making in the who european region [18] . the synthesis is published in the who region's health evidence network (hen) report series and consists of a scoping review addressing the question "what is the evidence on policies, interventions and tools for establishing and/or strengthening nhrss and their effectiveness?" [30] . the evidence synthesis focuses on the systems level and so primarily includes publications taking a systems approach at either the national or multi-national level. not surprisingly, health research policy and systems (harps) is the single largest source of papers included in the hen report. these were papers directly identified in the review's search or papers included in the hen report to illustrate a key point because they had been cited in one of the who reports or other systems-level collations of papers included in the synthesis. while the system level papers did provide considerable data about each function, limited resources to conduct the scoping review meant that we had to exclude papers focusing solely on one specific function of a health research system or on just one field of health research. as acknowledged in the hen report's agenda for further research, there is a large number of publications (papers and grey literature) covering each function [30] . therefore, reviewing all of these publications would be a major task but some exploration of the extent of the task, and the nature of such literature, could be informative. furthermore, additional papers are continuously emerging, including from the various initiatives that are ongoing or just underway, for example, the european health research network [31] . the three sections of this paper sequentially address the question of how to strengthen a health research system by: 1. describing key points and conclusions from who's hen report. 2. illustrating the nature of the ever-widening literature available on each function, or component, of a health research system by examining two sources in particular. first, the full range of papers published in harps in the 30 months up to february 2020. second, the range of data gathered from publications or interviews that is included in detailed studies of the national health research systems in two countries -iran [32] and england [33] ; between them, these two papers also illustrate diverse aspects of the additional material that could be drawn upon. 3. considering a key question in the analysis of the current and future initiatives, namely who is going to steer the development of health research systems? here, information and insights from the hen about this sometimes-controversial issue, along with wider continuing analysis, are drawn on in the more flexible and speculative way that can be undertaken in an opinion piece compared to a formal evidence synthesis. who's review, whose literature and who is providing leadership? who's review the evidence synthesis described by the hen report [30] starts by describing the importance of nhrss in helping to achieve universal health coverage [1] and the sdgs [2] . it goes on to analyse the challenges facing health research and describes how issues remain unresolved despite the development and application of a systems approach including who's framework for health research systems [3] . many countries do not have comprehensive national health research policies or strategies that would facilitate the introduction of a systems approach. therefore, challenges remain around two key and overlapping sets of issues. first, how to develop a systems approach to maximise the benefits from the research resources availablethis can be a challenge even in high-income countries with considerable research funding. second, how best to strengthen each specific function and component of a health research system [30] . the hen identifies two main systems-level approaches to strengthening nhrss. the first is comprehensive and coherent strategies, which can be contained in either policy documents, such as those from the english nihr [34], the irish health research board (hrb) [35] and the rwandan ministry of health [14] , or in specific legislation as in the philippines [36] . the second systems-level approach involves partnerships and multicountry initiatives, especially with international organisations. two initiatives from the west african health organization (waho) are particularly important examples [5, 37] . here, the ministries of health of the 15 west african member countries worked together in a joint initiative covering all the countries and with funding and expertise from a range of partners, including the council on health research for development (cohred), the canadian international research centre, the special programme for research and training in tropical diseases, and the wellcome trust. all who regions have seen multi-country activities by who and/or cohred to strengthen nhrss, including the repeat surveys that identify areas for action [4, 26, 28] . then, broadly using the who framework as the structure [3] , the hen identifies key points from systems-level literature on each of the four functions and nine components. the components of the stewardship and governance function include defining a vision, ethical review, research priority-setting, and appropriate monitoring and evaluation [3] . consultation with health system stakeholders should enhance the relevance of the research priorities to the healthcare system, with examples of extensive priority-setting engagement activities sometimes being seen as a key aspect of building the nhrs as in brazil [38] . evaluating the impact of research on policy and practice should help researchers to focus on achieving such impact and was therefore promoted in the world health report 2013 [1] . securing finance can involve obtaining funding from sources within the country and from external donors or multi-national organisations [30] . targets for research expenditure, such as the 2% of national health expenditure set by the 1990 commission on health research for development [39] , can usefully be brought into health research system strategies as in rwanda [14] . major health research strategies from countries within the european union can highlight the importance of european union funding as in france [40] , ireland [35] and malta [41] . requests for funding can be more effective when linked to other parts of the overall strategy, including identified priorities that need supporting through donor funding [42] and assessments of the benefits obtained from previous funding such as in england [24] . capacity-building involves building, strengthening and sustaining the human and physical capacity to conduct, absorb and utilise health research [3] . in 2016, santoro et al. [43] identified the generally low levels of research production in 17 countries of the former soviet union and south-eastern europe and made recommendations for the sustained investment in training and career development of researchers, which should go beyond scholarships for training abroad and involve comprehensive strategies to ensure clear career structures. strategies such as that from inserm in france set out comprehensive plans for capacity-building [40] and strategies in both england and south africa addressed priority gaps identified in the research capacity within the healthcare professions [34, 44] . donors can play an important part in building capacity but, recognising the need to avoid donor domination, often do so through partnerships. these can take diverse forms ranging from multi-country initiatives, such as that by waho, which included an initiative focusing on the challenges of postconflict countries but was unable to meet all the needs [37] , to accounts that focus on the partnership to address a broad range of capacity issues in a single country such as malawi [7] , to partnerships between individual institutions. examples of the latter can feature particular challengesthe james cook university in australia worked with the atoifi adventist hospital in malaita, the most populous province of the solomon islands, to start establishing health research system capacity on the island using an inclusive, participatory approach [45] . increasingly, there are also south-south partnerships, for example, an account of the panamanian health research system described how the country's first doctoral programme in biotechnology was established with support from acharya nagarjuna university in india [46] . the rwandan strategy described plans to tackle the 'brain drain' through making the country an appealing place to conduct health research in terms of job requirements and providing opportunities for career advancement [14] . the three mutually reinforcing components of the producing and using research function encourage the production of scientifically valid findings that are relevant for users and communicated to them in an effective manner [30] . major research funding bodies increasingly seek to address the waste issues raised by chalmers and glasziou [21] by working together in the ensuring value in research (evir) funders' collaboration and development forum. it issued a consensus statement committing the organisations signing it to "require robust research design, conduct and analysis" [47] . the forum is convened by the english nihr, the netherlands organization for health research and development, and the patient-centered outcomes research institute (united states) with the active support of major research funding organisations from australia, ireland (hrb), italy, sweden and wales, plus the special programme for research and training in tropical diseases [48] . the first waho intervention also worked to boost research publications, including by creating a regional peerreviewed, multilingual journal [5] . how research is produced can increase the chance that the evidence will be used in the health system, for example, the english nihr strategy noted that leading medical centres with substantial funding to conduct translational research can act as "early adopters of new insights in technologies, techniques and treatments for improving health" [34] . fostering the use of research requires specific knowledge translation and management approaches that draw on both locally produced and globally available evidence. various health research strategies promote the role of cochrane, including in england, where a unified knowledge management system to meet the needs of various stakeholders, including patients and their carers, involves funding both cochrane and a review centre focusing on the needs of the national health system [34]. in ireland, the hrb strategy facilitated evidence-informed decisions through promoting access to the cochrane library and supporting training in conducting high-quality cochrane reviews [35] . south africa cochrane featured as an important element in the nhrs [44] . the rwandan strategy stated that "the government of rwanda is committed to using research findings to make evidencebased decisions that will improve health in rwanda" [14] . it aimed to orientate various functions, including agenda-setting, monitoring and evaluation, and capacitybuilding, towards facilitating this challenging aim. the world health report 2013 highlighted various mechanisms that health research systems could adopt, including evipnet (evidence-informed policy network), to promote the use of research [1, 49] . the review also considers the effectiveness of approaches to strengthening nhrss. several reviews identified the effectiveness of the comprehensive approach taken by professor dame sally davies in creating the english nhrs [23, 25, 50] . the title of one analysis, 'nihr at 10: 100 examples, 10 themes, 1 transformation', emphasises that the success of the nihr depended on a range of elements being brought together in one transformation [25, 50] . one of the 10 themes was the involvement of patients in decisions about research priorities and processes and, based on this, another recent analysis highlighted england and alberta (canada) as having health research systems that had made important progress [51] . davies herself reflected on the success of the nihr and stated: "what we envisaged was integrating a health research system into the health care delivery system so that the two would become interdependent and synergistic" [24] . who's regional office for africa drew on their series of surveys of the performance of countries in building nhrss and analysed the data from the 2014 and 2018 surveys using the nhrs barometer that they developed to score progress on a range of items linked to the list of nhrs functions [11, 26] . in the 2014 survey, the rwandan system was identified as the best performing and it, along with the majority of systems, was reported to have further improved in the 2018 survey; by then, south africa was reported to have the best performance in africa. the surveys also illustrate how the multi-country approach makes a useful contribution to strengthening nhrss by helping to target action. furthermore, the waho interventions made some progress but, while the evaluations identified the importance of political will and leadership provided by waho's parent organisation of west african states, they also emphasised that building capacity for a whole nhrs is a significant task requiring commitment over the long-term [17, 37] . the hen review collated a range of examples of tools for nhrs strengthening. these were identified from the systems level discussions of nhrs strategies and partnerships and/or the major reports calling for nhrs strengthening such as the world health report 2013 [1] . the hen lists these in an annex [30] . the discussion in the hen draws on the literature that was included to identify five key policies that those responsible for strengthening nhrss could consider [30] , namely conduct context, or situational, analyses to inform strengthening activities [5, 34, 35, 37, [52] [53] [54] , develop a comprehensive and coherent strategy [14, [34] [35] [36] , engage stakeholders in the development and operation of the strategy [7, 23, 34, 35, 38, 41, 44, 51, [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] , adopt monitoring and evaluation tools that focus on the objectives of the nhrs, including health improvement [1, 14, 24, 60, 61] , and develop partnerships [5, 11, 28, 37, 62] . examples of the evidence to support or illustrate each policy are given in table 1 . in summary, therefore, this section shows that the who evidence synthesis, published as a hen report [30] , provides a firm basis for decision-making by policy-makers and research leaders looking to strengthen the health research system in their country. it analyses, in turn, the individual functions and components within a system and identifies a series of tools that can be used for strengthening many of them. finally, this section highlights the five crucial policy approaches that the hen report suggests can be applied as appropriate to the context of the country (table 1) . as noted above, the hen was a scoping review and focused on the literature at the systems level rather than on publications (papers and grey literature) related solely to specific functions, types or fields of research [30] . therefore, there is scope for further work to incorporate an even wider range of publications than the 112 included in the hen review [30] . the discussion in the hen suggests that further research could usefully take the form of a series of reviews on the extensive literature on each of the nhrs functions or components, which could then be collated [30] . just two of the many available sources illustrate the nature of the vast literature available on each function, or component, of a health research system and the way the literature on that, and the system level developments, is ever-widening. first, we can examine the papers published in harps, the specialist journal in the field of building nhrss. second, we can focus on two very different but detailed studies of individual nhrssone conducted for a phd thesis to show the 50 year history of the development of all the functions in the iranian health research system [32] and the other an interview-based study to understand the factors behind the creation of the nihr with its new strategy [33] . in terms of further reviews of the literature on specific functions or components, harps would probably be a key source. in the summer of 2017, an analysis by the retiring editors of the papers published in the journal from its inception in 2002 identified many papers that had been published on each of the functions or components of a health research system [63] . while this editors' analysis was included in the hen review because it organised its discussion of the papers at the systems level, the individual papers in it were, in general, only included in the hen review if they, too, adopted a systems approach at the national or partnership level, or were also cited in a report such as the world health report 2013 [1] . examples of such papers include viergever et al. on priority-setting [59] , bates et al. on capacity-building [64] , and lavis et al. on the support tools for evidence-informed policy-making [65] . therefore, many additional papers related to specific functions (or fields) could be consulted, in a formal review or otherwise, in any future series of reviews, each with a narrow focus on strengthening a specific function. to further inform this current opinion piece, a quick 'hand-search' was conducted of the papers published in harps in the 30 months since the previous analysis in mid-2017 [63] . this again identified a wide range of papers on specific components, especially priority-setting, evaluation of research impacts, capacity-building and the translation of research (or knowledge mobilisation). various papers linked the final two points and discussed capacity-building and knowledge translation [13, 66] . such a focus is entirely consistent with the aim described by the incoming editors in autumn 2017 of bringing "all elements of the research-policy world togethersuch that the research which is done is useful and that it is used" [67] . in this more recent phase of harps, there have also been important papers on issues related to the policies 'recommended' at the end of the hen and listed above, including the contribution of stakeholder engagement in research [68] . the more recent papers could sometimes provide useful further tools on specific functions. their narrow focus meant they had not been directly included through the hen search and, further, they had not been included in any of the major reports also used as sources for tools such as the world health report 2013 [1] . in some instances, this was because they were too recent, for example, the isria statement by adam et al. [69] describing the ten-point guidelines for an effective process of research impact assessment prepared by the international school on research impact assessment (isria). even more recently, the intervention scalability assessment tool, developed by milat et al. [70] , was proposed for use not only by health policy-makers and practitioners for selecting interventions to scale up but also to help design research to fill evidence gaps. this analysis of the papers from just one journal reinforces the message that there is likely to be a plentiful supply of literature for a future review on any of the main specific components. this message is further reinforced by a more detailed analysis of the papers in harps in the first 2 months of 2020. articles on the main components of a nhrs were supplemented by some important papers on topics that are highly relevant but which feature less frequently in harps. these include a study aimed at reducing the research waste that arises from disproportionate regulation by examining the practices for exempting low-risk research from ethics review in four high-income countries [71] , the global observatory's paper on research funding described earlier [29] , a study on the governance of national health research funding institutions [72] , and one on a more recent topic of growing significancean analysis of attempts to boost gender equality in health research [73] . additionally, some of the papers on specific components, such as impact evaluation or use of evidence, are extending the analysis. examples include consideration of how research impact assessments are conduct context or situational analyses of current national position to inform strengthening activities cohred, in particular, has developed tools to assist countries in conducting situational analyses as part of wider advice [52] and this approach was an important element in the waho interventions being successful to the extent that they were [5, 37, 53, 54] . strategies informed by analyses of their current situation include those for the english nihr [34] and the irish hrb [35] develop a comprehensive and coherent nhrs strategy comprehensive and coherent strategies with at least some degree of success (as seen in progress on some or all of the nihr functions) had set out how they intended to take action on the range of health research system functions and components, even if not necessarily explicitly using the who framework [3] ; examples include the strategies for the english nihr [34], the irish hrb [35] , and in the philippines [36] and rwanda [14] engage stakeholders in the development and operation of the nhrs strategy strategy documents such as those for the nihr [34] and hrb [35] , plus ones in british columbia [55] , malta [41] and new zealand [56] , describe the importance and/or range of stakeholders engaged in developing the strategy. articles describing the approach in south africa [44] and zambia [57] also highlighted the importance of wide stakeholder engagement. an analysis of stakeholder engagement in the creation and operation of the nihr identified it as making a key contribution to its success [23] . there is increasing support for the engagement of stakeholders in setting the priorities for research as well as in research processes and translation [7, 38, 51, 58, 59] adopt monitoring and evaluation tools that focus on the objectives of the nhrs, including health system improvement a range of documents, including ones on the nihr [24] , hrb [60] and rwandan strategies [14] , and the world health report 2013 [1] , demonstrate the importance of adopting monitoring and evaluation approaches that include a focus on assessing the impacts of research on health polices/practice and the economy, e.g. through application of the payback framework [60, 61] develop/participate in partnerships across regions, bilaterally or within the nhrs examples of progress made by partnerships between countries, sometimes along with international organisations and donors, include the waho interventions [5, 37, 53, 54] and the work of who regional offices for africa [11, 26] implemented in practice within research organisations [74] and how evidence is used in decision-making in crisis zones [75] . to illustrate the volume of studies being produced, there has been a flurry of studies, in the first 2 months of 2020 alone, on the collaboration and coproduction of health research. the titles include 'building an integrated knowledge translation (ikt) evidence base: colloquium proceedings and research direction' [76] , 'using a 'rich picture' to facilitate systems thinking in research coproduction' [77] , 'exploring the evolution of engagement between academic public health researchers and decision-makers: from initiation to dissolution' [78] , 'research co-design in health: a rapid overview of reviews' [79] , and 'conceptualising the initiation of researcher and research user partnerships: a metanarrative review' [80] . finally, another article in may 2020 presented a new conceptual model for health research systems to strengthen health inequalities research [81] . here, we have focused on just one journal, harps, because it was the largest single source of papers in the hen report, which totalled 140 publications (additional publications were included to the 112 in the review to help set the background, provide examples of key tools, etc). however, even with the review's focus on the system level, harps only provided 22% (31 out of 140) of the publications; 31% (43 of 140) came from other journals and 47% (66 of 140) were other types of publication. if the focus was shifted to including papers on specific functions it is highly likely that there would be a higher proportion of papers from other journals. the authors of two single-country papers on the development of the health research system, mansoori [32] about iran and atkinson et al. [33] on the creation of the nihr in england, both highlight the importance of context but also claim their findings could have wider application. examining these two papers is also informative because of the differences between the studies, including one being located in a low-or middle-income country, and the other not. mansoori's narrative review of studies addressing the health research system of iran included 204 relevant and mostly national records, categorised using an approach informed by the functions and components of who's nhrs framework [32] . the papers and grey literature documents included were all available in english or persian, and mostly published in journals other than harps, and illustrate the vast literature available at a global level on the various components of a nhrs. they informed an impressively detailed account of the various nhrs components and the attempts to strengthen them. for example, the account of the development of the national level ethical overview includes a fully documented chronology of the progress over 25 years and some insightful analysis of how the progress was facilitated by the pivotal role of professor bagher larijani, who was a prominent medical practitioner, leading researcher and founder of the medical ethics research centre in iran. he was able to "use the confidence that iranian authorities had in him as an opportunity" [32] . while mansoori's review was included in the hen review, only a tiny fraction of the available data about iran could be included, primarily in a brief description of the system's effectiveness [30] . however, the full paper could usefully inform the approach of researchers and/or policy-makers planning a detailed analysis of their own nhrs prior to embarking on exercises to strengthen it, and "[t]he findings emphasized that improvement of hrs functions requires addressing context-specific problems" [32] . as an illustration, mansoori's review identified a need for "a more systematic, inclusive" approach to research priority-setting [32] and, in the same stream of research, she co-led just such a priority-setting exercise to help address the knowledge gaps related to achieving both iran's national health policies and the sdgs [82] . atkinson et al. examined the creation of what might be viewed as the most successful attempt to strengthen a health research system in their paper ''all the stars were aligned'? the origins of england's national institute for health research' [33] . compared with mansoori, the authors adopted a different but equally detailed approach in their analysis, which was conducted principally through interviews and a witness seminar but also drew on the existing literature and documents [33] . they showed how the formation of the nihr was led from the department of health by a key group driven by sally davies. they aimed to improve patient care through both the strengthening of evidence-based medicine and through boosting the infrastructure to facilitate pharmaceutical clinical trials that would also meet wider industrial and economic goals. as with mansoori's study, consideration was given to how the full analysis could be informative to any planned detailed study or reforms in any other country. the key observations were similar to the recommendations from the hen report with a focus on stakeholder engagement and building support: "[t]wo measures likely to contribute to political support are to place the greatest emphasis on 'problem' rather than 'investigation' research, and to devote attention to measuring and reporting research 'payback'" [33] . atkinson et al.'s paper is also a link to the other main source considered here because it was a recent paper published in harps. in summary, if further analysis and research beyond that in the who evidence synthesis [30] is thought to be relevant in the particular country looking to strengthen its health research system, this opinion piece indicates some of the types of additional sources of information that are available and how they might be organised. the vast literature on each function and the ever-growing evidence base are illustrated by considering papers in just one key journal, harps, and analysing the contribution of two national studies. a review of the functions of the iranian system identifies over 200 relevant, mostly national, records and an analysis of the creation of the english nihr describes the key leadership role played from the health department. who is providing leadership? the above analysis demonstrates that there is no shortage of useful material on which to draw when strengthening health research systems. however, key questions remain as to who might best lead or steer attempts to strengthen such a system. the papers by both mansoori [32] and atkinson et al. [33] illustrate that, where a key committed individual has the capacity and opportunity to provide leadership, this can be a vital element in making progress. however, the institutional factors are also crucial. the hen developed the argument that a department or ministry of health will have a particular interest and perhaps experience in promoting research agendas that meet the needs of the healthcare system and in helping to develop mechanisms to use the findings from such research, where appropriate, to inform local policy and practice [30] . the health ministry or a research council responsible to it played an important role in the various systems identified above as being effective, as was also the case in the waho initiative [30] . in some cases, as with zambia, more progress was made once the ministry of health elected to play a more important role, sometimes in place of other stakeholders [57] . examples of the important role that health ministries can play were described in the 2013 world health report, including on paraguay: "the support of the minister of health backed by the president of paraguay has been a key factor in the development of a national health research system" [1] . additionally, naturally enough, the activities of the various who regional offices in boosting nhrss tend to focus on working with the national ministries of health, including work in europe [31] and by paho [28] . conversely, several analyses illustrate that progress in strengthening the nhrs might be limited where key parts of the ministry of health, for whatever reason, do not provide support [9, 83] . nevertheless, some disadvantages or dangers were identified when the ministry of health plays the leading role. first, in england prior to the creation of the nihr as well as in some other countries, the research funds controlled by the health ministry were sometimes appropriated by other parts of the health system when they were under particular pressure for resources [84] . similarly, there have been a few reports that health research funding lost out when donor funds that had previously been allocated specifically for health research programmes were replaced by donations of funds to be allocated by the nation's own health system according to its own priorities [85, 86] . one way of attempting to mitigate the danger is, as undertaken by the nihr and described by atkinson, by building support for health research through measuring and reporting the payback from research [24, 33] . the second danger arises because, traditionally, many researchers argued that the best science came when they had the freedom to identify the key research topics, rather than having priorities set by others [84] . therefore, they argued, the responsibility for funding and organising health research should be left to organisations that are part of the research system and independent of the health system [84] . furthermore, despite the growth of interest in coproduction approaches noted above, there have also been recent doubts raised about the assumption that coproduction is always the most appropriate approach [87] . this issue clearly requires sensitive handling. indeed, atkinson et al. [33] argue that one of the great successes of the nihr is that this issue has been so skilfully handled by the nihr that external input, or stakeholder engagement, in setting agendas has become widely accepted and the structures created give ministers a sense of ownership without sacrificing scientific independence. the efforts of waho [5, 37] and the who regional offices for africa and paho [11, 26, 28, 62] indicate that partnerships can be helpful. in europe, the who regional office worked with member states to create the european health research network, which is intended to help nations with limited nhrss who wish to make more progress [31] . partnerships can provide important support and encouragement, but the evidence suggests there must be strong political will somewhere within the political and/ or health systems for a health research system to be fully strengthened. the central asian countries in who's european region seem to provide an illustration of this point. a cohred collaborative initiative successfully resulted in situation analyses being produced in each country and then jointly discussed as the basis for action [88] , but according to the analysis by santoro et al. [43] , limited progress seems to have been made in the subsequent years. the importance of partnerships and collaboration in focusing research efforts in an extreme crisis, with a leadership role for the who, has been seen in the race to find treatments for covid-19 and vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (sars-cov-2), which causes the covid-19 disease [89] . in many nhrss across the globe, including in the philippines, scientists are coming together to participate in who's solidarity trial, which will test the safety and effectiveness of various possible therapies for treating covid-19 [90] . sarah gilbert, leader of oxford university's jenner institute's work on developing one of the leading vaccine candidates explained that cooperation was vital for tackling the crisis: "work is continuing at a very fast pace, and i am in no doubt that we will see an unprecedented spirit of collaboration and cooperation, convened by who, as we move towards a shared global goal of covid-19 prevention through vaccination" [91] . a key issue going forward is how such cooperation can be built on in strengthening nhrss into the future. for now, it is recommended that a prospective study be conducted to analyse all that is being done in different nhrss to speed up research during the pandemic, with a view to taking lessons about cooperation, partnerships and other matters into strengthening nhrss in the future [89] . the who evidence synthesis, published as a hen report [30] , provides a firm basis for decision-making by policy-makers and research leaders looking to strengthen the health research system in their country. it identifies five crucial policy approaches that can be applied as appropriate to the context of the countryconducting situation analyses, sustaining a comprehensive strategy, engaging stakeholders, evaluating impacts on health policies and practices, and partnership participation. it also analyses, in turn, the individual functions and components within a system and identifies a series of tools that can be used for strengthening many of them. if further analysis and research is thought to be relevant in the particular country looking to strengthen its health research system, this opinion piece indicates some of the types of additional sources of information that are available. the opinion piece also discusses aspects of the sometimes-controversial question of who should lead or steer attempts to strengthen nhrss. again, the context of the particular nation will be crucial in determining the most appropriate course to take, as emphasised by both mansoori [32] and atkinson et al. [33] , but at least some involvement of the ministry of health is likely to be beneficial; additionally, sometimes, key individuals can play a crucial leadership role in strengthening the whole system or one component. in countries with a less developed tradition of conducting health research, partnerships with other countries and/ or with international organisations can help lead the progress and learning for all partners. the valuable role that international organisations, such as who, can play in leading partnerships and cooperation to strengthen health research systems is being highlighted during the covid-19 crisis. overall, therefore, the full who hen report not only provides a detailed analysis of nhrs strengthening, it also provides a structure within which an even wider and ongoing literature can be considered. additionally, it contains a perhaps more nuanced account, on which this paper builds, of some aspects of the literature around the issue of who should provide leadership in developing nhrss and identifies the importance of ministry of health involvement. world health organization. the world health report 2013: research for universal health coverage transforming our world: the 2030 agenda for sustainable development. general assembly resolution 70/1 knowledge for better health: a conceptual framework and foundation for health research systems national health research systems in the who african region: current status and the way forward the west african health organization's experience in improving the health research environment in the ecowas region donor funding health policy and systems research in low-and middle-income countries: how much, from where and to whom implementing a national health research for development platform in a low-income country: a review of malawi's health research capacity strengthening initiative why do case studies on national health research systems matter? 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a narrative review and exploratory study of four international research funding and administrative organisations supporting the use of research evidence in decision-making in crisis zones in low-and middle-income countries: a critical interpretive synthesis building an integrated knowledge translation (ikt) evidence base: colloquium proceedings and research direction using a 'rich picture' to facilitate systems thinking in research coproduction exploring the evolution of engagement between academic public health researchers and decisionmakers: from initiation to dissolution research co-design in health: a rapid overview of reviews conceptualising the initiation of researcher and research user partnerships: a meta-narrative review a novel conceptual model and heuristic tool to strengthen understanding and capacities for health inequalities research the iranian chnri health research priority setting group, et al. setting research priorities to achieve long-term health targets in iran the political undertones of building national health research systems: reflections from the gambia freedom and need: the evolution of public strategy for biomedical and health research in england towards fair and effective north-south collaboration: realizing a programme for demand-driven and locally led research bringing health research forward the dark side of coproduction: do the costs outweigh the benefits for health research? strengthening health research systems in central asia: a system mapping and consultative process from covid-19 research to vaccine application: why might it take 17 months not 17 years and what are the wider lessons who western pacific: philippines. ph solidarity trial for covid-19 treatments receives green light from ethics review body. press release. who. 22 carving a path towards a covid-19 vaccine publisher's note springer nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations authors' contributions sp, lk and sh planned the original phase of the who evidence synthesis, including the search strategy. lk led the original literature search and contributed article selection and data extraction and analysis. ab and sh planned the second phase of the evidence synthesis. tj led the second phase of the literature search and contributed to the article selection and data extraction. ab contributed to the final version of the health evidence network report. sh led the data extraction and analysis and drafting of the report. sh conducted the additional analysis of the literature and initial drafting for this opinion piece. all authors commented on the opinion piece and approved the final version. key: cord-311651-v2ff33jd authors: long, nathaniel; wolpaw, daniel r.; boothe, david; caldwell, catherine; dillon, peter; gottshall, lauren; koetter, paige; pooshpas, pardis; wolpaw, terry; gonzalo, jed d. title: contributions of health professions students to health system needs during the covid-19 pandemic: potential strategies and process for u.s. medical schools date: 2020-07-15 journal: acad med doi: 10.1097/acm.0000000000003611 sha: doc_id: 311651 cord_uid: v2ff33jd the covid-19 pandemic poses an unprecedented challenge to u.s. health systems, particularly academic health centers (ahcs) that lead in providing advanced clinical care and medical education. no phase of ahc efforts is untouched by the crisis, and medical schools, prioritizing learner welfare, are in the throes of adjusting to suspended clinical activities and virtual classrooms. while health professions students are currently limited in their contributions to direct clinical care, they remain the same smart, innovative, and motivated individuals who chose a career in health care and who are passionate about contributing to the needs of people in troubled times. the groundwork for operationalizing their commitment has already been established through the identification of value-added, participatory roles that support learning and professional development in health systems science (hss) and clinical skills. this pandemic, with rapidly expanding workforce and patient care needs, has prompted a new look at how students can contribute. at the penn state college of medicine, staff and student leaders formed the covid-19 response team to prioritize and align student work with health system needs. starting in mid-march 2020, the authors used qualitative methods and content analysis of data collated from several sources to identify 4 categories for student contributions: the community, the health care delivery system, the workforce, and the medical school. the authors describe a nimble coproduction process that brings together all stakeholders to facilitate work. the learning agenda for these roles maps to hss competencies, an evolving requirement for all students. the covid-19 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to harness the capability of students to improve health. other ahcs may find this operational framework useful both during the covid-19 pandemic and as a blueprint for responding to future challenges that disrupt systems of education and health care in the united states. is a global pandemic, threatening individuals and disrupting communities and economies. 1 the impact on all u.s. health systems continues to escalate, and health systems are undergoing rapid operational change to meet the demands. 2 as leaders in complex care, research, and medical education, u.s. academic health centers (ahcs) are in many ways at the epicenter of this storm, which means that our medical students are fellow travelers, and their professional pathways are profoundly affected. [3] [4] [5] no aspect of the tripartite mission of ahcs-clinical care, education, and research-has been untouched by the crisis. clinical operations are pivoting to covid-19 preparation; research labs are closing as part of mitigation efforts; and medical schools, prioritizing learner welfare, are in the throes of adjusting to suspended clinical activities and remote learning. 6 the overall impact on medical education programs is unprecedented and rapidly evolving. but while normal learning activities are disrupted and schools are scrambling to adjust, the passion of our students to contribute to the needs of people and health systems in this crisis remains very much alive and well. [7] [8] [9] although many faculty find teaching to be rewarding and validating, traditional curricular designs have not used medical students' potential to cocreate and offer value to the health system. as a result, faculty often consider teaching medical students in the first few years of their curriculum as extra work, added time, and decreased efficiency. 10 substantive learner contributions are often viewed as coming in year 4 or during residency. recent advances in medical education, however, have focused on developing the concept of value-added medical education. 10, 11 this is defined as "experiential roles that have the potential to positively impact individuals and population health outcomes, cost of care, or other processes within the healthcare system, while also enhancing student knowledge, attitudes, and skills in the clinical or health systems sciences." 12 examples of value-added roles include student patient navigators, clinical care extenders, advocates, and resource managers. [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] necessity is the mother of invention, and currently, u.s. ahcs have the unique opportunity to operationalize the concept of value-added medical education in this escalating crisis, exploring how medical and other health professions students can contribute to the acute and overwhelming needs of health systems and the populations they serve. in the face of the evolving covid-19 pandemic, our team used qualitative methods and a content analysis of data collated from several sources-a literature review, a modified crowdsourcing method used to gather student perspectives, discussions with health system leaders, and the covid-19 pandemic poses an unprecedented challenge to u.s. health systems, particularly academic health centers (ahcs) that lead in providing advanced clinical care and medical education. no phase of ahc efforts is untouched by the crisis, and medical schools, prioritizing learner welfare, are in the throes of adjusting to suspended clinical activities and virtual classrooms. while health professions students are currently limited in their contributions to direct clinical care, they remain the same smart, innovative, and motivated individuals who chose a career in health care and who are passionate about contributing to the needs of people in troubled times. the groundwork for operationalizing their commitment has already been established through the identification of value-added, participatory roles that support learning and professional development in health systems science (hss) and clinical skills. this pandemic, with rapidly expanding workforce and patient care needs, has prompted a new look at how students can contribute. at the penn state college of medicine, staff and student leaders formed the covid-19 response team to prioritize and align student work with health system needs. starting in mid-march 2020, the authors used qualitative methods and content analysis of data collated from several sources to identify 4 categories for student contributions: the community, the health care delivery system, the workforce, and the medical school. the authors describe a nimble coproduction process that brings together all stakeholders to facilitate work. the learning agenda for these roles maps to hss competencies, an evolving requirement for all students. the covid-19 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to harness the capability of students to improve health. other ahcs may find this operational framework useful both during the covid-19 pandemic and as a blueprint for responding to future challenges that disrupt systems of education and health care in the united states. health system needs during the covid-19 pandemic: potential strategies and process for u.s. medical schools communication with frontline physician educators-to develop strategies for leveraging student capabilities and contributions. in this article, we (1) articulate 4 categories in which medical students can contribute to the work of u.s. ahcs and the wellness of their communities; (2) describe the educational benefits for learners and the alignment with health systems science (hss) competencies; and (3) highlight a process for coproduction between students, medical schools, and the health system. our goal is to develop an operational framework that other ahcs can use in this crisis and to provide a blueprint for responding to future challenges that disrupt our systems of education and health care. in mid-march 2020, anticipating the arrival of the covid-19 pandemic in south central pennsylvania, education and student leaders from the penn state college of medicine (pscom) collaborated with penn state health system leaders on a process for strategically identifying avenues for meaningful student contributions to meeting workforce needs. primed by a well-established curriculum in patient navigation and hss and encouraged by an invested faculty, over 400 students (primarily medical students with contributions from students in public health [mph and drph], nurse practitioner, and physician assistant programs) made commitments to contribute to the pandemic within the first 6 weeks. the initial planning phase, which was rapid and nimble, was guided by the goal of safely integrating students into supervised interprofessional work projects that would contribute directly to the needs of penn state health and the community, while also providing educational benefits. a covid-19 response team was quickly established with student codirectors. to capture the energy of the moment, several early projects were piloted while a concurrent intentional analysis of needs was performed. we sought to collect a broad and diverse range of ideas from multiple stakeholders, including students, educators, and system leaders. we then performed a focused literature review, inclusive of our prior works related to value-added medical education. [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] our team employed a modified crowdsourcing method, which included soliciting open-ended suggestions for activities from all pscom medical students in google docs, on social media platforms, and via personal email communications. 17 simultaneously, we asked both administrative leaders and clinical faculty within our health system to identify vital system needs. a lead author (j.d.g.) also personally contacted physician educators at several u.s. ahcs to explore their perspectives on possible needs. lastly, we reviewed information on social media platforms to gather ideas from other medical schools. using this dataset, we performed a content analysis, collapsed ideas into similar roles, and grouped all tasks into overarching categories. 18, 19 our underlying assumptions were that students bring maturity and commitment, medical and health care delivery awareness, technological competency, creativity in problem solving, and community understanding to the current challenge, making them uniquely positioned to provide valuable contributions. on the basis of our analysis, we identified 4 categories of projects for our health professions students. below we describe each of these 4 categories, and table 1 lists potential and active tasks (n = 38) with descriptions for each. we identified various roles in which students could contribute to increasing the understanding of the pandemic in the neighborhoods and communities in the region surrounding pscom. these roles leverage students' knowledge of the communities' strengths and weaknesses to promote large-scale awareness and strategies to remain safe and flatten the curve of the pandemic (e.g., social distancing, handwashing, etc.). several projects and tasks focus on expanding the workforce for emerging pandemic-specific needs (e.g., telehealth encounters, follow-up check-ins, patient rescheduling, etc.) as well as the ongoing work of caring for non-covid-19 patients (discharge navigation, etc.). in addition, health system leadership identified the need for an evidencebased medicine team to assist them in answering questions. this team creates daily succinct summaries of emerging information regarding covid-19 from a breadth of perspectives to facilitate strategic and clinical decision making within the ahc. we identified several projects and tasks that allow students to support the needs of caregivers and staff-the workforce of the health system. ensuring frontline clinicians and staff can remain in their jobs requires assisting them in their life responsibilities outside of work, including childcare, maintaining a food supply, running errands, and attending to personal well-being. the modification of clerkships and in-person educational experiences has forced medical schools into uncharted territory. the curriculum has transitioned exclusively to an online format. some traditional activities can be replicated or approximated, but many will require creative and innovative changes that necessitate active student engagement. the students are key stakeholders and contributors, offering technological expertise and piloting innovative ideas for curriculum development and implementation. after identifying a comprehensive list of projects and tasks, we developed a process for prioritizing activities by working with students and medical school and health system leadership. our first action was to collaborate with the legal department to ensure appropriate safety and regulatory steps, based on principles that the medical school and health system leadership had created and agreed upon, were in place. most notably, it was evident that activities students engaged in would need to be accomplished remotely, without direct patient or team contact, and under adequate supervision of penn state faculty or staff. in addition, an important distinction emerged between efforts that students developed independently and operated outside of our health system, such as regional blood banking programs, and efforts that the health system solicited from students and cocreated with them by using their ongoing feedback and input (e.g., covid-19 follow-up calls, contact tracing, etc.). while participation in all activities is completely voluntary, projects officially approved by the health system and medical school require a standard of recognition that adheres to the guiding principles and includes either curricular credit or monetary compensation. regardless of training year, each student participating in a task force is enrolled for a time-variable elective credit (e.g., 1 credit for each 10 hours, maximum 4 credits), which can fulfill 1 elective requirement for postclerkship students; the associate dean for health systems education (j.d.g.) provides formal oversight for all electives. see table 1 for a description of projects and designation of key features. we quickly learned the importance of a formal organizational structure featuring coproduction, well-defined roles, clear workflow, and regular communication. figure 1 depicts our covid-19 response team, the relationship of students to pscom and penn state health leadership, and a workflow designed to consider student and faculty ideas while ensuring collaboration and prioritized task force assignments. with a rapidly evolving landscape of system and patient needs, student efforts must be channeled thoughtfully to maximize value and safety. this structure was established to ensure that new tasks and ideas continue to meet legal requirements and are free a since the creation of the task forces at the penn state college of medicine in mid-march 2020, the number of students involved in task forces has been dynamic. six weeks into the program (mid-to late april), the total number of students on task forces or awaiting placement = 418; students onboarded to functioning task forces = 348 (medical students = 323, public health students = 13, nurse practitioner students = 8, physician assistant students = 4). at that date, the breakdown by category was as follows: category 1 = 167 (contact tracing = 106), category 2 = 144 (patient navigator discharge = 37), category 3 = 0, category 4 = 37 (medical school and logistics planning = 33). priorities were assigned to the task forces on the basis of how many of the 3 key features (3 right-hand columns) they have. b educational value relates to learning in systems-based practice/health systems science (e.g., identification of health system gaps and improvement processes, application of core systems principles to the pandemic, contribution to system needs), interpersonal and communication skills, interprofessional collaboration, knowledge for practice, and professionalism. of ethical or coercive conflicts, formally approved by pscom, and systematically address the most pressing needs of the health system. a developmental cascade starting with principles and workflow allowed for further clarification and prioritization of potential opportunities (see table 1 ). many of these tasks were variations of roles that had already existed in our curriculum (e.g., students as patient navigators), and others emerged from system needs (e.g., evidence-based medicine consultants, telehealth extenders, etc.). [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] several tasks were proposed by faculty members who were shifting their research and clinical work to meet the needs of the pandemic and sought collaboration to extend the workforce to perform these tasks (e.g., an internal medicine physician leading contact tracing, a geriatrician leading long-term care facility outreach). the willingness of leaders and faculty to invest time and energy in this system highlights the value-added nature of the task forces. in mid-to late april 2020, within 1 month of discussion and planning, we launched 17 task forces, and the work has substantially benefitted our health system and community. for example, by the end of april, the contact tracing task force has onboarded 100+ students who have called over 900 patients with covid-19 and their contacts to inform and educate them on infection control measures. we fully anticipate the work of these task forces will change, blend figure 1 depiction of the covid-19 response team workflow in identifying, prioritizing, and establishing task forces for student contributions during the pandemic. ideas from the health system, medical school, and students are reviewed and prioritized by the covid-19 response team, composed of health system leadership (executive vice president/chief clinical officer and/or his or her designee) and medical school leadership (vice dean for educational affairs, associate dean), and 5 student leaders. the covid-19 response team chooses ideas for task forces that meet legal guidelines, are deemed of high need to the health system, and are of educational value (see table 1 ). the covid-19 response team establishes each task force by designating a student and a faculty leader, who work together to create goals, collaborate with entities needed for specific tasks (e.g., department of health), and oversee the recruitment/preparedness of students. faculty leaders include a diverse group of physicians (e.g., surgery, internal medicine, family and community medicine), nurse practitioners, and social workers. once a process has been developed and the number of students needed has been determined, students are onboarded via voluntary sign-ups and formally enrolled in the elective. the faculty member and student lead ensure appropriate training for each task and assist with assessing student progress, logging of hours, compliance, and contributions to the task force. huddle groups between various levels of the covid-19 response team allow for collaboration and feedback to ensure the dynamic needs of the task forces, health system, and medical school are met. with other groups, or phase out as the pandemic continues to evolve and affect our communities as well as our personal and professional lives. however, this coproduction process can provide the longitudinal and sustainable methods for work through the pandemic, even as health systems face unprecedented adaptations. this model for the development and implementation of task forces with interprofessional stakeholders provides an efficient and effective process to adapt and respond to changing health care needs, even if legal parameters and hospital policies change. such changes may include the most extreme hypotheticals, such as having students rejoin the workforce on the frontlines. 20 we learned the following lessons, which other medical schools may want to consider. hss, with roots in george engel's biopsychosocial model and the systembased practice competency domain of the accreditation council for graduate medical education, has emerged as a major focus in medical education and includes competencies in health care delivery, social determinants of health, high-value care, change management, and systems thinking. [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] this growth has mirrored an increased recognition of the importance of hss in the care of patients and populations and reflects the needs of health systems that are undergoing transformation. educators and students increasingly understand how the contexts of our patients and care environments are critical to learning and health. at the same time, health system leaders are increasingly looking for the hss perspective and skill set in their workforce. 27 seven years ago, pscom began a comprehensive curricular program of classroom and experiential learning in hss. 28 those students who developed an evolved skill set-serving as patient navigators for individuals in need, obtaining white and yellow belt certifications in operational excellence, 29 and honing a nascent systems-based perspective toward health care practice-are the same students who have been organizing themselves to perform similar and additional roles during the covid-19 pandemic. their formal studies have been interrupted, but their professional path, the way they see themselves as collaborators and contributors in health care, is thriving. at the same time that education and experience in hss have primed our students to contribute in this pandemic, the crisis is setting up a unique opportunity for students to deepen and extend their learning in hss, as well as interpersonal communication, knowledge for practice, and professionalism. recognizing this, our medical school has been able to accelerate the approval of a health systems and covid-19 response elective for students across all phases of the curriculum. in line with an outcomesbased educational model, task force activities and reflection assignments map to our hss competencies, and continual feedback ensures a growth mindset for all parties involved (formal course proposal available upon request). we believe the covid-19 pandemic is an ideal opportunity for students to contribute to the needs of the health system while also helping them develop systems-based competencies and the mindset necessary for forming an evolved professional identity. [30] [31] [32] [33] "systems citizens" are physicians who not only care for individual patients but also know how to perform in developing systems of care, embodying the motivation to grow and contribute to the evolution of the health care system itself. continually improving our systems of care-in response to pandemics and beyond-will require all physicians to have this skill set and professional identity. [34] [35] [36] [37] coproduction between students, medical school, and health system the convergence of education and system needs around hss described above has created a unique opportunity to realize coproduction between key stakeholders. 38 while the potential for this collaboration has been present for some time, there has been no urgent motivation to make it happen. there have been important initiatives, but there has also been a tendency for stakeholders on all sides to function independently. the covid-19 pandemic has upended many businessas-usual perspectives and activities and has vividly and tragically brought the potential for coproduction into high relief. the table has been set by health systems and education programs, and now we have passionate, skilled students sitting at the table with a wide range of stakeholders and leaders to think and plan together. coproduction is no longer just a possibility or an idea; it is playing out in our programs and likely in medical centers all over the country. the covid-19 pandemic is challenging our ahcs and our local, national, and global communities in tragic and unprecedented ways. confronting this crisis is prompting widespread reexamination of what we thought we knew, how we act, and how we respond to adversity. as we are distracted by events and responses, we are also opening to new opportunities. it has been easy to talk about students as our junior colleagues and the future of our profession, but those words do not always translate into what we do and how we do it. it is comfortable to envision a steady progression of professional development through incremental biomedical coursework, clinical training, and responsibility. but the reality is that for several years, hss and associated added-value roles have been opening up a distinct, equally important thread within students' professional development. the feasibility, validity, and impact of these approaches have been well documented and widely disseminated. [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] and we know that health systems value and very much need an hss professional development pathway for their future workforce. many educators and system leaders have recognized this need, but work toward achieving the goals of authentic codevelopment of roles and the invitation to contribute has been slow. in this tragic time of covid-19, nothing is slow. many things, too many bad but some good, have been brought into stark relief. one that stands out clearly on the positive side is how we can come together-the health system and education leaders, faculty and staff, and students-to make a difference. our hope is that the program of aligning missions and employing coproduction to create value-added participatory roles for students can serve as a blueprint for other medical schools as we continue to navigate these uncharted waters. world health organization american hospital association. updates and resources on novel coronavirus (covid-19) the evolving academic health center: strategies and priorities at emory university the transformation of academic health centers: meeting the challenges of healthcare's changing landscape shifting academic health centers from a culture of community service to community engagement and integration association of american medical colleges. coronavirus resources for the academic medicine community medical students, sidelined for now, find new ways to fight coronavirus. the new york times value-added medical education: engaging future doctors to transform health care delivery today meaningful roles for medical students in the provision of longitudinal patient care compensation to a department of medicine and its faculty members for the teaching of medical students and house staff transforming from centers of learning to learning health systems: the challenge for academic health centers a constructive reframing of student roles and systems learning in medical education using a communities of practice lens 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education: identifying and defining a potential curricular framework ama education consortium. health systems science domain of competence: systems-based practice systemsbased practice: the sixth core competency systems-based practice defined: taxonomy development and role identification for competency assessment of residents health systems science in medical education: unifying the components to catalyze transformation aligning education with health care transformation: identifying a shared mental model of "new" faculty competencies for academic faculty educating for the 21 st -century health care system: an interdependent framework of basic, clinical, and systems sciences implementing six sigma and lean toward a common taxonomy of competency domains for the health professions and competencies for physicians reframing medical education to support professional identity formation moving beyond nostalgia and motives: towards a complexity science view of medical professionalism physicians' professional responsibility to improve the quality of care the fifth discipline: the art and practice of the learning organization. rev and updated ed systems citizenship: the leadership mandate for this millennium educating patient-centered, systems-aware physicians: a qualitative analysis of medical student perceptions of value-added clinical systems learning roles curricular transformation in health systems science: the need for global change coproduction of healthcare service acknowledgments: the authors would like to express their deepest gratitude to all the health professions students at penn state college of medicine who have dedicated time to these initiatives to improve patient health and strengthen our community. key: cord-337275-phgfpzbt authors: andrew, jones; nikolay, strigul title: is spread of covid-19 a chaotic epidemic? date: 2020-10-20 journal: chaos solitons fractals doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110376 sha: doc_id: 337275 cord_uid: phgfpzbt the covid-19 epidemic challenges humanity in 2020. it has already taken an enormous number of human lives and had a substantial negative economic impact. traditional compartmental epidemiological models demonstrated limited ability to predict the scale and dynamics of covid-19 epidemic in different countries. in order to gain a deeper understanding of its behavior, we turn to chaotic dynamics, which proved fruitful in analyzing previous diseases such as measles. we hypothesize that the unpredictability of the pandemic could be a fundamental property if the disease spread is a chaotic dynamical system. our mathematical examination of covid-19 epidemic data in different countries reveals similarity of this dynamic to the chaotic behavior of many dynamics systems, such as logistic maps. we conclude that the data does suggest that the covid-19 epidemic demonstrates chaotic behavior, which should be taken into account by public policy makers. furthermore, the scale and behavior of the epidemic may be essentially unpredictable due to the properties of chaotic systems, rather than due to the limited data available for model parameterization. the developing covid-19 pandemic challenges humanity in 2020. according to aggregated worldwide data posted at the international worldometer.info website, more than 15 million were infected by covid-19 and more than 600,000 people died in relation to this disease (as of july 20, 2020) . the pandemic has already caused a huge economic loss due to national lock-downs, travel restrictions, and global distractions of trade and manufacturing chains. as the pandemic developed around the globe, severe border control and travel limitations were implemented that led to unprecedented national isolation. different countries, while being isolated, implemented various strategies to limit epidemic spread: many countries implemented extended national-level lock-downs including closure of businesses, schools and stay-at-home orders (for example france, italy, germany, austria, hungary, south korea, and more), some introduced practically no such lock-down measures (for example, sweden, belarus, and brazil). many countries implemented only regional lock-downs (for example, china and the usa). the overall challenge for the development of scientifically-based covid-19 containment strategy is the apparent unpredictability of this pandemic [5] . traditional compartmental epidemiological models demonstrated quite limited ability to predict the scale and dynamics of this epidemic in different countries [5, 25, 11] . this apparent unpredictability of the covid-19 pandemic creates an additional challenge for governments around the globe, who need more accurate predictions to develop a reasonable containment strategies [16, 9] . this limitation of traditional modeling approaches can be partially explained by the novelty of the virus and limited relevant epidemiological data necessary for model parameterization [28] as well as statistical problems in model calibration [25] . in particular, until recently, we did not know the rate and mechanisms of the transmission of covid-19 virus as well as its biology and ability to survive and spread outside host organisms [19, 11] . in a previous study, [4] demonstrated that the coronavirus raw data in china's first two months of the disease suggest chaotic growth, similar to other epidemics like h1n1 and measles. mathematical chaos theory originated from studying deterministic systems represented as differential equations where initial conditions dictate their behavior. in these systems sensitivity to the initial conditions was so large that the systems were practically unpredictable. this was originally studied by poincaré in the 1880s in relation to the three-body problem in astronomy, an example of which is the earth-moon-sun celestial system [23] . as poincaré critically stated, "it may happen that small differences in the initial conditions produce very great ones in the final phenomena" [23] . in physical systems described by differential equations, systems which experience this effect are described as having "high sensitivity" to initial conditions. one example which demonstrates this concept is a bowling ball; imagine a very small spin on the ball at the beginning of its roll. this small spin in combination with the oiled bowling lane could cause it to move wildly off-course, making it "highly-sensitive" to initial conditions. due to the effect poincaré found, "measurements made on the state of a system at a given time may not allow us to predict the future situation" [3] . these systems are now termed "chaotic." unpredictability due to highly-sensitive reliance on initial conditions inspired the term "deterministic chaos." after poincaré's studies, the deterministic chaotic behavior was discovered in numerous dynamical systems and confirmed experimentally [15, 6, 2, 20] . the spread and "fade out" cycle of epidemic diseases often exhibits deterministic chaos. qualitative analysis of that deterministic chaos can offer more information than a "multifactorial stochastic paradigm of causation" [21] . in the late 80s, scientists noticed that measles outbreaks exhibited deterministic behavior. by studying this they hoped to quantify conditions for the maintenance of [an] infection in human populations" [7] . in 1991, grenfell published his study of the chaotic measles outbreaks in the paper "chance and chaos in measles dynamics." that study found that certain parameters in the chaotic disease system created deterministic behavior. for example, applying his model to the city of copenhagen and mapping with poincaré's methods produced drastic results: one example is that doubling the immigration rate into the city could completely eliminate the fade-out of measles [7] . similar findings in relation to covid-19 could have wide-ranging societal implications. in this work, we consider the covid-19 epidemic within the framework of complex dynamic systems [14] . this framework is broadly applied in modern ecology, social and medical sciences [21, 13, 6, 2, 20] . in particular, the covid-19 pandemic can be considered as a complex phenomena developing simultaneously at multiple temporal and spatial scales varying from individual level to the global scale. within this framework, particular disease dynamics patterns result from major self-organisation mechanisms within the system. the chaotic behavior is a common phenomenon in complex systems, and we hypothesise that the unpredictability of the epidemic scope in different countries is a fundamental property of this dynamic system which demonstrates chaotic behavior. in order to examine this hypothesis we have analysed covid-19 epidemic data from different countries. in particular, we examine if the covid-19 epidemic demonstrates a chaotic regime based on the analysis of observed data. we do not aim to derive or validate a correct dynamical system model. instead we consider epidemiological data collected in different isolated countries as an independent observations of the same dynamical system. in order to evaluate whether or not the spread of coronavirus is chaotic, we employ the following criteria, derived from poincaré's definition of chaos [23, 4] [23] . in the study, we find extremely high variation between countries, even when normalizing by patient-zero date and total population of each country. 2. sensitive -does the growth of the virus experience large regions of activity? are there real reasons for regions of activity, specifically changes in the physical system? this criterion has precedent in the aforementioned university of florida / wuhan university paper [4] . later in the study, we present multiple examples of high regions of sensitivity in the spread of covid-19, as revealed by the derivatives of the system. 3. numerically unpredictable -can the behavior of the system change unexpectedly from one point to another? this criterion was also introduced in the university of florida / wuhan university paper [4] . we found numerous examples of sets of countries which exemplified unpredictability by behaving similarly and then suddenly diverging, which we discuss later in the paper. 4. deterministic -what causes activity in the system? is the system random, or is it determined by some factors of the physical system, as required in order to be chaotic? this is a qualitative criterion derived from poincaré's definition of chaos [23] . we present cases where real-world changes such as mandated lockdowns had a profound impact on the spread of the disease, suggesting deterministic behavior. the study concluded that the spread of covid-19 exhibits the major qualitative characteristics of chaotic systems. most countries show a roughly logistic growth curve, but activity in the second derivative revealed great variability in system behavior. when examined under the context that infectious epidemics in the past have exhibited chaotic behavior, the study concluded that the spread of covid-19 suggests that the epidemic is a chaotic system. johns hopkins university has continuously collected data on the coronavirus epidemic from various sources such as the world health organization, including daily cases per country, which is the data source used for this study [10] . the data is organized by country and cumulative cases by date. a sample with the first five days of one country is shown in table 1 . we considered the data from the beginning of the global data set, january 22nd, 2020, to may 30th, 2020. each data-point tells the number of confirmed covid-19 cases in that country by that day. in the example shown in table 1 , the united states had five confirmed cases by january 26th, 2020. with almost 35,000 data-points corresponding to 267 countries or territories, the study required a dynamic analysis tool instead of analyzing static charts. in order to investigate deeper, a web-based interface was designed and developed to allow for close inspection of the data through interactive charts. the evolution of the covid-19 epidemic was mapped over time, in terms of total number of confirmed cases per country per day. data was adjusted to account for country population and date of first-confirmed-case in order to accurately compare the spread behavior between countries. the raw data was extracted as an csv file and analysed using original javascript software [12] , the graphing utility plotly [22] was employed to generate all the graphs. figure 1 demonstrated the raw data as percentages of each country's population. since the data only pertains to the total number of confirmed cases, not accounting for decreases like recovery and death, the total number of cases in every country/region increases or remains constant at all times. highlighted in figure 2 , almost all regions show 1 of 3 possible parts of the beginning of a logistic graph: a curved ramp-up (russia), or a curved ramp-up into roughly a line (us), or an upward curve into a line which curves toward horizontal (spain), which is a logistic curve. this is sensible for an infectious disease with a maximum number of infections, that maximum being the population of each country. per capita.png so far, these patterns don't directly suggest chaos: it still seems possible there might be some parameters which control the shape of the curves predictably, potentially population density, weather patterns, etc. figure 3 demonstrates the case data shifted to show the percent of the population that had been infected as a function of the number of days since the first case in each country, instead of the absolute date. this graph is more revealing about the relative behavior of the epidemic in each country. it is clear the virus ran its course faster in some countries, where the growth seems to have flattened in fewer days. for example, only 55 days after the first case in iceland, the country had almost completely stopped the spread. meanwhile, the us at 130 days in was still seeing almost linear positive spread. comparison of iceland and the us these differences confirm that there are a large number of potential solutions or equilibrium and varying behavior between countries over time. another key observation from this graph is that countries which seemed to follow similar growth curves can very rapidly diverge. for example, as shown in figure 5 , in the first 40 days of the epidemic in ireland, the netherlands, and turkey, the percentage of the population that was infected grew almost identically in each country. however, between days 40 and 42, the three countries' curves diverged greatly, to such an extent that by day 60, ireland had almost three times the infected population percentage as turkey, and turkey and the netherlands are 25% apart as well. this example exhibits unpredictability because, by poincaré's definition, the behavior following day 40 cannot be predicted by the state at day 40, since there are clearly multiple possible behaviors. this is one example confirming unpredictability in the spread of covid-19. it is also important to note that these three countries are not alone in displaying unpredictability after formerly-similar spread of covid-19. another example is kuwait, france, and sweden, shown in figure 6 . until approximately day 70, the infected percentage in all three countries had grew with similar shaped curves. however, within days after that point, the infected percentage in kuwait spiked drastically, while it entered linear growth in france and sweden. by 10 days later, even france and sweden diverged, with sweden's infected percent still growing linearly while the spread slowed down in france. by poincaré's definition of unpredictability, knowing the spread behavior in sweden from day 60 to 120 would not provide any accurate prediction of the behavior in kuwait or france, suggesting a chaotic nature.yet another example of unpredictability is cabo verde and new zealand, shown in figure 7 . in cabo verde and new zealand, the disease spread almost identically until day 25, at which point it continued to grow similarly in each country until day 40, and then the behaviors sharply diverge: cases grow steeply linearly in cabo verde, but level off almost entirely in new zealand. this example further demonstrate that spread of covid-19 is unpredictable, because at any given point there are multiple possible behaviors in the time following that point. the observation of unpredictability fulfills one of poincaré's key criteria for choatic systems. we looked at the rate of spread of covid-19, the derivative of the number of cases, adjusted similarly to figure 3 . this data, shown in figure 8 shows the spread rate as a function of the number of days since the first patient. negative derivatives represent decreasing numbers of cases, which shows corrections to data, since the data set does not account for real decreases in active cases (by recovery or death). while the raw data shows mostly similar shaped, roughly logistic trajectories with some small bumps and jumps, the daily rate of growth shows a lot of variation in behavior. for example, in the us from day 92 to day 99, just one week, the daily growth rate decreases by 30% and increases back to almost the same starting point (shown in figure 9 ). we also see drastically different behavior between different regions, unlike the roughly logistic graphs of the raw data. one example is the comparison of the spread rates of the us and spain. by their respective day 30s, the spread rate in spain started to decline, while the us spread rate was just starting to increase, as shown in figure 10 . the amount of unpredictable variation within a country and different possible models for each country suggest chaos. however, most countries still follow a very rough pattern of increasing and then leveling-off and decreasing spread rates. the second derivative helps to measure this sensitivity ( figure 11 ) because its behavior shows activity in the system [4] . the rate of change of the spread rate in each region fluctuates greatly. the us ( figure 12 ) seems to oscillate between roughly two values, spain and italy ( figure 13 ) appear to exhibit a single heart-beat-like pulse surrounded by ramp-up and ramp-down, and russia ( figure 14) and germany show clusters of high activity. in summary, the results reveal the following: 1. large number of solutions -while most countries have a roughly logistic curve of covid-19 growth, there is a huge amount of variation in: the time it takes to reach the same point in that logistic curve, the highest percent of the population which the logistic curve reaches, and the degree of curvature of the logistic model. 2. sensitive -the second derivative shows clusters, spikes, and oscillations, revealing that the system is highly sensitive due to the high amount of activity in the system instead of steady or constant behavior. 3. numerically unpredictable -while the raw data shows roughly predictable shapes, the extreme variation first and second derivatives of different countries reveal a high amount of variability, making the growth of the system unpredictable. furthermore, there are examples of growth curves appearing identical and then suddenly diverging. we may predict that spread in the us will level off logistically, but we cannot tell when that will occur based on the us data or other countries' curves. one important question remaining is what causes the activity: is the system random, or is it determined by some factors of the physical system, as required in order to be chaotic? qualitative investigation is required to answer that, and even then we cannot definitively determine the factors contributing to every change in every country. however, we investigated some of the countries and found good examples suggesting the system is deterministic. new cases take up to 14 days to show symptoms and therefore be reported [18] . in iceland, lockdown was initiated on march 24th [29] , day 25 when shifted. exactly two weeks after that change, there are few new cases reported ( figure 15 ) and almost all activity shown by the second derivative ceases (figure 16). this is also the day with the sharpest increase in testing in ireland [8] , which would explain the jump in the data and higher activity following that day. in bahrain, re-opening efforts began on april 9th [1] , which is the likely cause of a the immediately following spikes in number of cases ( figure 19) . these examples suggest that real changes in the physical conditions of the system are causing changes in the spread of the virus. the outcome, amount and rate of spread, is determined by these real factors. this suggests the behavior of the system is deterministic, not random, a key qualifier for a chaotic system. complex natural systems often demonstrate chaotic behavior. however, rigorous proof of chaos from empirical data or experimental observations alone is a substantial challenge. in this work, rather than attempt a rigorous mathematical proof, we investigate the hypothesis that the covid-19 pandemic exhibits chaotic behavior by mapping the disease over time from available epidemiological data. our results suggest that the covid-19 epidemic exhibits deterministic chaos. the overall predictions of the sir model demonstrate a typical sigmoidal curve. this functional response is characterised by an exponential growth stage, inflection point and slowdown growth phase towards a horizontal asymptote. the first wave of covid-19 pandemics in different countries demonstrates similar behavior ( figure 3 ). empirical sigmoidal models such as the logistic curve are also broadly employed for modeling of covid-19 and other epidemics [27, 26, 24] . the discrete counterpart of the logistic curve is a well-known logistic map model that demonstrates a chaotic behavior [17] . our examination of the epidemic dynamics in different countries reveals amazing similarity to the chaotic behavior known in this and many other dynamics systems. we conclude that the scale of the epidemic is essentially unpredictable due to fundamental reasons rather than due to the limited data available for model parameterization. we find that the chaotic behavior in the spread of covid-19 suggests that it is a deterministic chaotic system, which should be taken into account by public policy makers. through use of an interactive data map, it was shown that the spread of covid-19 exhibits the major characteristics of chaotic systems, namely, determinism, high sensitivity, large number of equilibria, and unpredictability. when examined under the context that infectious epidemics in the past have exhibited chaotic behavior, we conclude that spread of covid-19 is likely a chaotic system. we may be able to gain some insights into its behavior, such as the common logistic pattern, but we cannot assume that it will follow a logistic path in any one country and we cannot numerically predict the behavior of a particular logistic curve. ☒ the authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. ☐the authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: claration of interest statement coronavirus: bahrain one of first nations to ease lockdown as malls reopen complex population dynamics: nonlinear modeling in ecology deterministic chaos theory: basic concepts first two months of the 2019 coronavirus disease (covid-19) epidemic in china: real-time surveillance and evaluation with a second derivative model when will the coronavirus outbreak peak non-linear dynamics for clinicians: chaos theory, fractals, and complexity at the bedside. the lancet chance and chaos in measles dynamics covid-19: 28 more deaths, 500 further cases offline: covid-19 and the nhs-"a national scandal novel coronavirus (covid-19) cases data predictive mathematical models of the covid-19 pandemic: underlying principles and value of projections original software: covid-19 graphs: javascript ecosystems and the biosphere as complex adaptive systems complex adaptive systems: exploring the known, the unknown and the unknowable deterministic nonperiodic flow effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed covid-19 cases in china simple mathematical models with very complicated dynamics covid-19 information hub: what you need to know a systematic review of covid-19 epidemiology based on current evidence complexity, simplicity, and epidemiology chaos, population biology, and epidemiology: some research implications plotly graphing libraries: javascript sur leséquations de la dynamique et le probleme des trois corps estimation of covid-19 dynamics "on a back-of-envelope": does the simplest sir model provide quantitative parameters and predictions? chaos why is it difficult to accurately predict the covid-19 epidemic? real-time forecasts of the covid-19 epidemic in china from february 5th to february 24th covid-19 epidemic in italy: evolution, projections and impact of government measures modeling the epidemic dynamics and control of covid-19 outbreak in china hert samkomubann: ekki fleiri en 20 mega koma saman key: cord-332432-q7u943k6 authors: hofkirchner, wolfgang title: a paradigm shift for the great bifurcation date: 2020-06-30 journal: biosystems doi: 10.1016/j.biosystems.2020.104193 sha: doc_id: 332432 cord_uid: q7u943k6 this paper is an attempt to achieve an understanding of the situation the evolution of humanity is confronted with in the age of global challenges. since global challenges are problems of unprecedented complexity, it is argued that a secular paradigm shift is required away from the overemphasis on allegedly neutral standpoints, on a mechanistic picture of the world and on deductive logics towards accounts of emergence, of systemicity, informationality and conviviality, building upon each other and providing together a transdisciplinary edifice of the sciences, in the end, for, and by the inclusion of, citizens. viewed from such a combined perspective, the current social evolution is punctuated by a great bifurcation similar to bifurcations other emergent systems have been facing. on the one hand, humankind is on the brink of extinction. it is the world occurrence of the enclosure of commons that is detrimental to sharing the systemic synergy effects and thus to the cohesion of social systems. on the other hand, humanity is on the threshold of a planetary society. another leap in integration would be the appropriate response to the complexity confronted with. humans and their social systems are informational agents and, as such, they are able to generate requisite information and use it to catch up with the complex challenges. they can establish convivial rules of living together in that they disclose the commons world-wide. by doing so, they would accomplish another evolutionary step in anthroposociogenesis. the concept of the global sustainable information society describes the framework of necessary conditions of conviviality under the new circumstances. the seemingly disruptive advent of the covid-19 pandemic outshone the climate change that has been gaining obvious momentum since the last fifty years to an extent that it threatens with a much more decisive rupture if science, technology and society are not unwilling to learn from the pandemic that there is nonlinear growth with complex challenges be they small or large and that human actors are not completely doomed to helplessness though. for such a lesson to learn, a secular shift in thinking and acting throughout sciences and everyday life is required because human actors need to be capacitated to cope with complex challenges such as the global problems. a shift is already underway though not yet hegemonic. this shift has to overcome three prejudices of conventional science: • the outdated ideology of value-free scientific research. the absence of values would make science distinct from biased everyday thought. but that's not the distinction. any research is driven by societal interests even if mediated by personal curiosity. any research implies particular values, reflected or not if not even camouflaged. of course, these values must not divert the findings of research, quite the contrary, they shall stimulate evidence-based research -and that's the distinction from biased opinion of everyday. science can critique opinions. in the last two decades, several labels have become aspirational for scientists: research shall be responsible, university research shall be aware of its third mission, namely, to serve the common good, applied research shall be replaced by use-inspired basic research, research shall become practically transdisciplinary in that it transcends science towards, and include in science, the values of everyday people that are affected by the results of research, best by letting them participate in research. these are attempts in the right direction: the acceptance that there is a limited controllability of what can be done. as everyday-thinking and -acting, science has limited controllability over its impact on society but within that certain limit it is capable of controlling and thus it must aim at doing so in a precautious way. neither phantasies of omnipotence nor of impotence are called for but a deliberate activism is (hofkirchner, 2013a, 62-71) . not everything that might be feasible is also desirable and not everything that might be desirable is also feasible. the feasible and the desirable need to be made compatible with each other. • the outdated mechanistic picture of the world. cause-effect relationships are fancied as if pertaining to a machine constructed by humans. cause and effect would obey laws of strict determinacy such that the effect would follow necessarily from the cause. but that is true only for a small subdivision of effective causality -causes can have different effects and effects can be brought about by different causes -, let alone final, material and formal causality (hofkirchner, 2013a, 86-95) . laws of nature and other parts of the world are not given for eternity. the late karl raimund popper called those laws propensities -an asymmetrical, contingent behaviour of the universe (1990) . this shows the right direction. strict determinism as well as indeterminism are false alternatives. less-than-strict determinism avoids both fallacies. • the outdated preponderance of methodologies that are based on deductive logics. deductivism is an attempt to deduce that which shall be explained or predicted from premises such that the phenomenon can be subsumed under a proposition of the form of a universal implication that covers the phenomenon. the premises suffice by definition for the conclusion, the phenomenon is thus reduced to a sufficient condition. but, in fact, those conditions are rarely sufficient. there is the search for alternative logics such as the hype for abduction or claims for a trans-classical logic (günther, 1990) . and there is the logic in reality of joseph brenner (2008) who grounds logic in reality, that is, he gives primacy to how reality works in principle when postulating logical principles. anyway, it needs to be accepted that explanation and prediction are incomplete and that they should focus on the adjacent necessary instead, that is, a necessary condition that might rarely be sufficient but should form a basis of understanding as close as possible to the phenomenon that shall be explained or predicted (hofkirchner, 2013a, 131-139; 1998) . neither deductivism nor irrationalism -for which anything would go -can convince but a reflexive rationalism that accepts incomplete deducibility with an ascendance from the abstract to the concrete where by each step a new assumption is introduced without deduction. the build-up of such a specification hierarchy is important for the transdisciplinarity in its theoretical sense -the consideration of as many facets of the phenomena as possible in order to achieve a unified understanding. the removal of those impediments for the progress of science are the milestones that the paradigm shift has to master. only if they will have been achieved, humanity will be ready to confront the global challenges in a way that safeguards mankind against man-made extinction. the next sections substantiate how, on the three pillars of deliberate activism, less-than-strict determinism and reflexive rationalism, a new understanding of the current situation of world society can be erected and how it can make the disciplines of the whole edifice of science responsive to that task. the sections will proceed from a systemic level to an informational level to a convivialist level. 1 emergentist systemism 'emergentist systemism' is a term introduced by poe yu-ze wan (2011) in the context of social theory, after it had been used in the field of social work in switzerland (e.g., obrecht, 2005) to characterise the approach of philosopher of science, mario bunge. bunge himself was rather used to terms such as 'emergentist materialism' to signify, e.g., his position in the field of the mind-body problem. however, he defined systemism in a broader sense, namely as 'ontology: everything is either a system or a component of some system. epistemology: every piece of knowledge is or ought to become a member of a conceptual system, such as a theory. axiology: every value is or ought to become a component of a system of interrelated values ' (2012, 189) . and he defined emergence as '[…] advent of qualitative novelty. a property of systems ' (2012, 185) . thus, emergentism is 'a world view or an approach' that focuses on emergence (2003, 38) . 'systemism, or emergentism', as he said (2003, 38-39) , 'is seem to subsume four general but one-sided approaches: 1. each of these four views holds a grain of truth. in putting them together, systemism (or emergentism) helps avoid four common fallacies.' this is by and large the sense in which emergentist systemism is understood here (hofkirchner, 2017a ) -as weltanschauung, that is, a world view that is not value-free (a german term by which mark davidson 1983 summed up ludwig von bertalanffy's general system theory and which will be subsumed here under the term praxiology), as conception of the world (ontology) and as way of thinking to generate knowledge about the world (epistemology). in a nutshell, emergent systemism means that, practically, humans intervene as a rule for the betterment of social life in real-world systems they conceive of by patterns they have already identified and that these systems are emergent from the co-operation of other systems that become or are their elements. this is called selforganisation. since the idea of emergent systems implies a kind of evolution, these systems are also known by the term evolutionary systems. evolutionary systems theory -a term coined by ervin laszlo (1987) , vilmos csanyi (1989) and susantha goonatilake (1991) but extended here to cover the meaning it received after the seminar held at the konrad lorenz institute for evolution and cognition research in vienna 1995 (van de vijver et al., 1998) -is the proper theory of self-organisation, a merger of systems theory and evolutionary theory by which the first was enabled to include more than ideas of maintaining systems only and the latter could emancipate from mechanistic interpretations of the darwinian model. self-organisation is characterised by evolvability and systemicity. that means that matter, nature, real-world events or entities evolve such that systems materialise as organisation of components (hofkirchner, 2013a, 58-59) . applying emergentist systemism to the edifice of science(s) brings a profound change (hofkirchner, 2017a) . how is the old paradigm's view of that edifice? let's start with philosophy, composed of epistemology, ontology and praxiology (ethics, aesthetics and else) as the most abstract enterprise and put it in the background. before that background, you have the three categories of formal sciences, real world sciences and applied sciences in juxtaposition. the formal sciences include logics and mathematics as disciplines. the real-world sciences comprise disciplines that investigate nature, on the one hand, and were called typically physics, chemistry, biology and else, and disciplines that investigate the social world, on the other, nowadays summarised under the term social and human sciences including sociology, cultural, political, and economic sciences and else. applied sciences assemble engineering, management, arts and else. every discipline is divided by sub-disciplines and sub-sub-disciplines besides all having their own legitimation as basic research, formal sciences are known for providing instruments for gaining knowledge in the real-world sciences, real-world sciences are needed for the provision of evidence for developing technologies, organisation, pieces of art. however, what makes the co-operation of sciences difficult is that they are siloed against each other by impermeable boundaries. connection between those mono-disciplines can be attempted only by heaping some of them together in a multi-disciplinary approach, which is no connection at all, or by peripheral exchanges in an interdisciplinary approach, which does not admit internal changes and keeps the disciplines as alien to each other as they have been before. driven by the confrontation with complex problems, things have begun to change already in the direction of semi-permeability of disciplinary boundaries, which, in the long run, paves the way for the establishment of new stable relations between them. emergentist systemism is not another discipline that just adds to the picture of the old disciplines. it causes rather a paradigm shift that has the potential to transform the whole edifice of science(s). philosophy that was deprived of fruitful relations to the disciplines of science in what had become normal science turns into systems philosophy now; formal sciences turn into formal as well as non-formal systems methodology; realworld sciences turn into sciences of real-world systems, that is, material, living or social systems; and, finally, applied sciences turn into a science that makes artefacts by designing systems and, in doing so, integrates them with social systems. so, at one blow, connectedness is unveiled between all inhabitants of the edifice. transgressions from one scientific endeavour to another can be mediated via jumping forth and back over shared levels of scientific knowledge. those levels form now a specification hierarchy. jumping from one specific level to a more general level allows comparison and adjustment of both levels. it allows the initial level to instigate knowledge adaptations on the target level or adoption of knowledge on re-entry from the target level. in addition, a more general level works as bridge for jumping up the ladder to even higher levels or down to different lower levels so as to help understand that their knowledge is just another specification of the knowledge they share at a higher level. this makes the sciences of evolutionary systems a transdiscipline and its inherent emergentist systemism makes the edifice of disciplines a transdisciplinary, common endeavour of all science. semi-permeability does not lift the boundaries. relative autonomy of disciplines is maintained in the overall transdisciplinary network. paraphrasing bunge, informationism is a term used here to denote a praxiological perspective on, an ontological conception of, and an epistemological way of thinking about, information, which takes centre stage in this tenet. for the sake of consistence, information is set to be based upon, and concretise further, systems, in particular, emergent information shall easily relate to emergent systems. this can be achieved through the assumption of informational agents -agents being emergent systems. thus, the generation of information is enshrined in the self-organisation of systems. any time a system self-organises, its agency brings forth information. an evolutionary system can be defined as 'a collection of (1) elements e that interact such that (2) relations r emerge that -because of providing synergistic effects -dominate their interaction in (3) a dynamics d. this yields a distinction between micro-level (e) and macro-level (r) and a process (d) that links both levels in a feedback loop' (hofkirchner, 2013a, 105) . with reference to, but in modification of, a triadic semiotics after charles sanders peirce (2000) , laying emphasis on the intrinsic connection of self-organisation with negentropy after edgar morin (1992, 350 and 368) and by usage of the term 'perturbation' introduced by humberto maturana and francesco varela (1980), information can be defined as 'relation such that (1) the order o built up spontaneously (signans; the sign) (2) reflects some perturbation p (signandum/signatum; (to-be-)signified) (3) in the negentropic perspective of an evolutionary system s e (signator; the signmaker' (hofkirchner, 2013a, 171) . 'information is generated if self-organising systems relate to some external perturbation by the spontaneous build-up of order they execute when exposed to this perturbation. in the terms of triadic semiotics, the self-organising systems, by doing so, assign a signification to the order and make it a sign which stands for the so signified perturbation' (hofkirchner, 2013a, 172) . this is the approach of a unified theory of information (hofkirchner, 2013) . it is worth noting that those assumptions attribute information generability to emergent systems according to the evolutionary type they represent. not only social systems and their inhabitants are qualified as informational agents (this would import the acceptance of umberto eco's threshold of semiosis applicable to the realm of human culture exclusively), not only biotic systems (this is the threshold of biosemiotics) but also physical systems in so far as they are able to self-organise are qualified to generate information in shades -as far as the respective evolutionary stages allow. emergent systems of any kind produce emergent information. as to the new scientific edifice, informationism is mounting systemism. systems philosophy becomes a systemic philosophy of information; systems methodology becomes a systemic information methodology; the sciences of real-world systems become sciences of information of real-world systems, that is, of material information, living information and social information; and the science of designing artificial systems becomes the science of designing information in artificial systems. all that information is emergent information. convivialism is a term denoting a social perspective (praxiology), a conception of the social world (ontology) and a social-scientific way of thinking (epistemology) for which conviviality is key. conviviality as term was introduced by the austrian-american writer, ivan illich, who published a book with the title tools for conviviality (1973) . it contained a philosophy of technology according to which technology should be socially controlled so as to reclaim personal freedom that is restricted by uncontrolled technological development. conviviality -illich was familiar with the spanish term convivialidad -has latin origins and means the quality of living together in the manner of dining together (convivor) of hosts (convivator) and guests (conviva) at common feasts (convivium). in the last decade, that term gained new attention when mainly about fourty french intellectuals -among them serge latouche, edgar morin or chantal mouffe -opened the discussion on a political manifesto for the redesign of social relations. the first manifesto was followed by a second, up-dated one in 2020 (internationale convivialiste). according to the latter, convivialism 'is the name given to everything that in doctrines and wisdom, existing or past, secular or religious, contributes to the search for principles that allow human beings to compete without massacring each other in order to cooperate better, and to advance us as human beings in a full awareness of the finiteness of natural resources and in a shared concern for the care of the world. philosophy of the art of living together, it is not a new doctrine that would replace others by claiming to cancel them or radically overcome them. it is the movement of their mutual questioning based on a sense of extreme urgency in the face of multiple threats to the future of humanity. it intends to retain the most precious principles enshrined in the doctrines and wisdom which were handed down to us.' convivialism is emergentist if seen in the context of emergent systems and emergent information. social systems are here considered as evolutionary systems, which is in stark contrast to how german sociologist niklas luhmann (1995) considered them (wan, 2011). though luhmann originally claimed to start with general system theory when elaborating his theory of social systems, a revisiting of bertalanffy would lead to different conclusions . such an approach has been pursued not only by bunge but also by members of ervin laszlo's general evolution research group, among them robert artigiani (1991) , by representatives of critical realism, in particular margaret s. archer (1995; 2010; and her project group on social morphogenesis at the centre for social ontology, and workers departing from us sociologist walter f. buckley (1967) , including the economist tony lawson (2013) and the relational sociologist pierpaolo donati (donati, 2011; donati and archer, 2015) . of course, many other sociologists are worth mentioning; even if they do not explicitly share a systems approach, they have nevertheless contributed with important insights to such a framework (giddens, 1984; alexander, 1995; mouzelis, 1995; reckwitz 1997) . social systems are the evolutionary product of living systems but contain living systems that get a social shape. the elements of social systems as conceived here are social agents -humans called actors -and their organisational relations are social relations -called structure. actors inhabit the micro-level of social systems, while the macro-level is where the structure is located. the structure is produced by the actors and it exerts a downward causation on the actors and their agency (hofkirchner, 2013b, 136; lawson, 2013 ). thus, social systems self-organise as living and material systems do, but they differ from living and material systems as to their mode of self-organisation. 'social self-organisation goes beyond biotic self-organisation, which, in turn, goes beyond physicochemical self-organisation' (hofkirchner, 2014, 120) . social self-organisation does so in that it transcends, re-invents, creates the social systems through the action, interaction and co-action of their actors, who -as informational agents -cognise, communicate and co-operate mindfully when reproducing and transforming their social systems, which, in turn, can be considered as higher-level informational agents. social self-organisation is not conceivable without the generation of specific social information. the triple-c model postulates a hierarchy of information processes such that cognition is the necessary condition for the functioning of communication and communication the necessary condition for the functioning of co-operative information, in short, co-operation (hofkirchner, 2013) . psychic functions such as thought and others, the ability to speak and the ability to devise and manufacture artefacts, in particular, tools, are characteristic of humans. all of them are knit together in social information: 'human thought is part of human cognition […]; human language is part of communication […] ; human tools are part of work that belongs to human co-operation' (hofkirchner, 2016, 286) . starting with work at the top (which refers to the structure on the system's macro-level), it is about constituting common goals and instituting common goals. work is consensual. co-operation involves finding and building consensus. what is needed here, are common intentions. common intentionality provides the perspective of the whole we, the perspective of the social system. consensualisation, in turn, presupposes a certain collaboration that designs specific tasks for reaching the shared goals and assigns these tasks to certain actors. that is done on the social information level below, on the level of language (which refers to the network of interactions the actors form on the system's micro-level). communication functions as the means to realise that kind of collaboration that is needed for the upper level. that is, taking the perspective of the other facilitates collaboration. however, taking the perspective of the other is promoted by taking the perspective of the whole in which one's own and the others' roles are included. what is required here, is readiness for a dialogue with sense for consilience. collaboration, in turn, presupposes a certain co-ordination that devises certain operations for fulfilling the tasks and supervises certain actors in performing the operations. that is worked out on the lowermost level, on the level of thought (which refers to the actions of the individual actors who are also located on the system's micro-level). cognition allows the actors to understand what kind of co-ordination is needed by the upper level. it enables the actors to reflect upon the relationship between operations, tasks and goals. what is necessitated here, is reflexivity, the capacity to reflect the social context in which the cognising actor is embedded (archer, 2010) , and conceptuality, the capacity to use concepts, all of which are influenced by verbal language (logan, 2007; . the rationale of every complex system is synergy (corning, 1983; . agents produce synergetic effects when co-operating systemically -effects they could not produce when in isolation. in social systems, synergy 'takes on the form of some social good. actors contribute together to the good and are common beneficiaries of that good -the good is a common good, it is a commons' (hofkirchner, 2014, 121) . the social relations are commoning relations. conviviality then, as a feature of emergent social systems with emergent social information, can be determined as the historical-concrete shape of the commoning relations. it is a social value that is highly esteemed, it is a theoretical conceptualisation of a social practice, and it is a measurand the value of which can be estimated by empirical studies -it is all of them in one because it is an expression of the quality of the commoning relations. it expresses how just those relations are constructed, how equitable, free and solidary, and to which degree they enclose or disclose the commons. conviviality is visionary and longs for actualisation. its actualisation would 'make the social systems inclusive through the disclosing of the enclosed commons and, by doing so, […] warrant eudaimonia, a good life in a good society, the flourishing of happy individuals in convivial social relations' (hofkirchner, 2017b, 286) . having defined the commons as social synergy and conviviality as measure of the actualisation of envisioned commoning relations, the critical theory perspective becomes apparent (hofkirchner, 2015, 97-99) -the perspective of a critical social systems theory as part of the social systems sciences in the new edifice of disciplines. conviviality is emergent. it develops over time and changes its forms in a contingent way. referring to michael tomasello's shared intentionality hypothesis and his interdependence hypothesis (tomasello et al., 2012; tomasello, 2014; , there have been two key steps in anthroposociogenesis (the becoming of humans and society) so far and, following the new systemic, informational and convivialist paradigm, a possible third one is imminent. the next subsections discuss those steps. leaps in quality emerge in systems as novel organisation due to a change in the organisational relations. thus, changes on the top-most levels of information generation and usage are decisive. all of them are shifts in co-operation. if work, language and thought build the human/social hierarchical levels of information from a synchronic point of view, then, from the diachronic point of view, it may well be assumed 'that it is conditions of co-operation that made the difference in evolution. evolutionary pressure unfolded a ratchet effect that yielded ever higher complex co-operation' (hofkirchner, 2016, 287) . the state of co-operation in the ancestors of humans is the origin of anthroposociogenesis. self-reinforcing processes came about. changes in the state of co-operation proliferated down to provoke changes on the level of communication -the development of human language -in order to propel co-operation and changes in the state of communication proliferated down to provoke changes on the cognition level -the development of thinking -in order to propel communication. in the beginning, so tomasello, there was a shift from individual to joint intentionality. individual intentionality of common ancestors of chimpanzees and humans was the point of departure about six million years ago. as living together was driven by self-interest of animal monads, there was no need for taking in consideration common goals, no need for thinking on a level beyond the actual egocentric perspective (tomasello, 2014, 4, 30) . early humans began to speciate only when they took advantage of going beyond individual intentionality and adopted 'more complex forms of cooperative sociality' (31). a first step occurred 'in the context of collaborative foraging' (33), that is, the hunting of large game and gathering of plant foods, around 2 million years ago. this step culminated about 400.000 years ago, when joint intentionality emerged. hunters and gatherers developed dyadic cooperations driven by a 'second-person morality ' (2016, 6) . hence a need for acknowledging a common goal, that is, an understanding that the partner shares the goal and both are committed to act according to its achievement. multiple and vanishing dyadic relationships formed in which early humans shared a joint goal. in order to support the negotiation of joint goals and the coordination of collaboration, human communication originated with 'a commitment to informing others of things honestly and accurately, that is, truthfully ' (2014, 51) . cognitively, 'when early humans began engaging in obligate collaborative foraging, they schematized a cognitive model of the dual-level collaborative structure comprising a joint goal with individual roles and joint attention with individual perspectives' (69). this was a premature state of conviviality. dyadic co-operation guaranteed the common good for the included actors. the shift from individual to joint intentionality was followed by a shift from joint to collective intentionality. collective intentionality emerged with early humans about 150.000 to 100.000 years ago. this shift occurred with the advent of culture, that is, of separate and distinct cultural groups, the interdependence that caused co-operation reigned 'not just at the level of the collaborating dyad, and not just in the domain of foraging, but at the level of the entire cultural group, and in all domains of life' (tomasello, 2016, 85) . this step created objective morality (6). co-operation became triadic. since then a need for group-thinking has become characteristic of humanity, that is, knowing that any person belonging to the same group culture can be expected to share the same values and norms -by constructing a meta-level such that any group member can imagine the whole of the group, the roles taken, her own as well as others' replaceability. in line with that, communication was to start with discourses about 'objective' facts in need of compelling arguments and cognition had to turn into fullblown human reasoning; 'the individual no longer contrasted her own perspective with that of a specific other […]; rather, she contrasted her own perspective with some kind of generic perspective of anyone and everyone about things that were objectively real, true and right from any perspective whatsoever ' (2014, 122) . cognition involved a new feature of generalisation capacity. this was the next step of conviviality. the third of the triad is relations of society that relate individuals to each other with respect to the common good -even if the concrete content of the common good became a matter of disputation and conflict. and today, a third step of anthroposociogenesis can be hypothesised. there might be a shift from collective intentionality to one that is shared universally, that is, on a planetary scale. that would be the transition to another convivial regime -an extension of the triad to the whole of humanity, an omniad. this extension would be necessary because the conflict over the commons has reached an extension that endangers conviviality at all and the curbing of the extension of the conflict over the commons by extending the triad to an omniad can be considered possible, which is discussed in the sub-subsections to follow. another step is necessary, given that it is agreed that there shall be a human future, which is tantamount with a humane future (hofkirchner 2017b ). in the course of evolution, complex systems move on trajectories on which bifurcations occur. they occur if and when the provision of synergy effects becomes problematic. bifurcations force the systems to change their trajectory. the old one cannot be continued any more. it bifurcates into a variety of possible future trajectories. there are two of them that span the whole variety in the possibility space between two extremes: systems might be able to achieve a leap from the previous level of evolution on which they could enjoy a steady state onto a higher level which forms part of a successful mega-evolution (haefner, 1992, 314; oeser, 1992 , 103-104) -a breakthrough to a path that transforms the systems into what is called meta-system (the metasystem transition) or supra-system -or they might even not be in the position to avert devolution -a path that leads to the breakdown of the systems. amplified fluctuations of parameters indicate the crossroads that demand taking one path or another. the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems make the crossroads appear in one as windows of opportunity to spiral upwards and as tipping points that let the systems spiral downwards into oblivion (laszlo 2001; 2006) . complex systems that can be observed today are those that could manage so far to harness synergy. the evolution of social systems is no exception. 'today, enclosures of the commons have been aggravated to such a degree that all of them morphed into global challenges. global challenges drive an accumulation of crises that mark a decisive bifurcation' (hofkirchner, 2017a, 10) . not only do global challenges cause a multi-crisis in the tension between, and among, social systems from the granularity of today's nation states down to the granularity of the smallest units made up by individualised actors, cutting across all social areas such as the cultural, the political, the economic, the ecological (eco-social) and the technological (techno-social) area and affect so humanity as a whole, but they also threaten, for the first time in human evolution, with the ultimate impact for humanity -with extinction. thus, that decisive bifurcation, in which a branch is much sought after to lead out of a dead-end branch, is called here the great bifurcation. that term resembles karl polanyi's term of the great transformation (1944) in that it embeds the conflict of market capitalism with democracy -the point that was of utmost importance to polanyi -in the complex systems context of anthroposociogenesis. 'either the social systems that together constitute mankind undergo a metasystem transition onto a higher level of organisation that allows the continuation of social evolution on earth or they, eventually, fall apart and discontinue anthropogenesis; either they succeed in rising their complexity such that they break through to a new step in the mega-evolution of humanity or there is a decline in complexity, a breakdown and devolution; either their differences can be integrated or they disintegrate themselves' (hofkirchner, 2020a, 1) . another step is not only necessary for a surviving and flourishing humankind. it is also possible and the reason for that is not only that such a step is grounded objectively in the possibility space given by the bifurcation. moreover, humans can be conceded the subjective potency to find the right way out of the crossroads, in particular, since the problems they come across are of anthropogenic origin and can be solved by a proper re-organisation of the social systems. they can view the evolution of humanity from the inside, explore and anticipate the way out and, finally, intervene accordingly (laszlo, 1987; 2001; 2006) . they belong to the first species on earth that can overcome self-made problems in the sharing of synergy. any emergent system can boost emergent information to catch up with the complexity of the challenges. 'if there is a mismatch between the complexity of a system and the complexity of the problems faced by the system, that system can catch up. […] intelligence is the capability of selforganising systems to generate that information which contributes in the best way to solving problems. the better their collective intelligence, that is, the better their problem-solving capacity and the better their capability to generate information, the better their handling of the crisis and the order they can reach. higher complexity not only signifies a higher degree of differentiation. at least as importantly, it signifies a new quality of integration. only a new level of integration can deal with an intensification of differentiation' (hofkirchner, 2017a, 10) . this can be called the law of requisite information (hofkirchner, 2020a, 3) that is elaborated on the basis of w. ross ashby's law of requisite variety (ashby, 1956) . according to the latter, a system is said to be able to steer another system, if the variety it disposes of corresponds, if not surpasses, the variety of the system to be steered. by departing from the narrow cyberneticist view through connecting variety with complexity and complexity with information and extending the reach of that which is to be steered from the outside to the inside, it can be concluded: 'requisite information is that appropriate information a system has about the complexity of the exterior and interior environment. requisite information safeguards the functioning of the system' (hofkirchner, 2020a, 3) . humanity entered the great bifurcation because 'the social relations of any partition of humanity are based on the principle of othering of partitions that are considered outside of them, thus not doing justice to legitimate self-interests of the rest of the partitions. frictions […] are caused by the lack of relations that would be valid for all partitions from a bird's eye view, that is, from a meta-level perspective. the establishment of such relations would mean the abolition of those frictions by a new supra-system in which all existing systems take part and shape according to the new relations on a higher level, following the application of the subsidiary principle as a basis for the preservation of diversity and autonomous agency" (hofkirchner et al., 2019, 455) . despite some literature based on biases due to biologism unable to imagine a transgression of the conceptual framework of the nationstate we, transnational relations have been taking shape. there is empirical evidence of co-operation between culturally homogeneous groups several tens of thousands of years ago, between cities around five thousand years ago, and between modern states since the seventeenth century (messner and weinlich, 2016; neumann, 2016; grimalda, 2016) . 'this co-operation between collective actors like groups, cities and states has already been paving the way for co-operation among the whole of humankind in the same way that dyadic, interpersonal co-operation between individual actors opened up the space of possibilities for triadic, societal co-operation' (hofkirchner et al., 2019, 455) . the term information society is gaining a new meaning. it does not mean a society that is only informatised, that is, penetrated by information technology as a report to france's president originally insinuated (nora and minc, 1978) . it means an informatised society only if that society uses its informatisation for becoming informational in a non-technical sense. becoming informational entails becoming sustainable and becoming sustainable entails, in turn, becoming global. such is information society on the point of obtaining another meaning in the context of critical social systems theory, which crystallises as critical information society theory. it points towards the global sustainable information society as a framework (hofkirchner, 2017c) : • informationality of the global sustainable information society means 'the envisioned state of informedness of informational actors and systems in which they will catch up with the complexity they are challenged by the great bifurcation to such an extent that […] they will dispose of the capacity to recognise the causes of the global challenges in order to accordingly re-organise human life on earth to master those challenges' (hofkirchner, 2020a, 2) . informationalisation signifies the provision of social information for the installation of safeguards against the deprivation of commons world-wide and thus a new step in the evolution of conviviality. • the provision of such safeguards, in turn, is the process of executing sustainability. sustainability in the framework of the global sustainable information society does so receive a new meaning too. it means 'the envisioned state of the world system that will be shaped and shaping the social relationships between all parts, and throughout any part, of humanity pursuant to the commoning relations on the higher level' such that 'dysfunctions in the working of the organisation of the social system are kept below a threshold the transgression of which would discontinue social evolution' (hofkirchner, 2020a , 2). • the higher level on which the commons shall be provided, is 'the envisioned state of world society as an integrated meta-and supra-system in which social relationships will connect all parts of humanity in all fields of human life', which, eventually, conveys a new meaning to globality in the context of the global sustainable information society. 'these commoning relations need to be lifted onto the planetary level, and the emerging superordinate system will nest all actors and systems according to the new expanded commoning relations. by that, global governance is carried out' (hofkirchner, 2020a, 2) . globalisation signifies the provision of the commons worldwide. the notion of the global sustainable information society is far from a blueprint of the future society but describes which necessary conditions need to be met if the great bifurcation shall be successfully passed. there are three imperatives of social information that must be obeyed so as to enable actors to take that next step in the evolution of convivial humanity. on the co-operative level, normative, valueladen information must become hyper-commonist, that is, it must orient the consciousness and conscience of the actors towards the reclaiming of the commons in a universal manner; on the communicative level, dialogical information must become all-inclusive, that is, it must not exclude any actor in a universal conversation about the common good; on the cognitive level, reflexive information must become meta-reflexive, that is, it must be concerned about changes of the meta-level that is a universe for all actors (hofkirchner, 2017c) . in order to accomplish that third step in conviviality, those imperatives, investigated by social sciences and humanities, need to be provided to civil society by translational sciences, all of them integrated and implemented by the new paradigm shift as transdisciplinary basis. scientific thinking as well as everyday thinking need to support each other in the comprehension and tackling of the next step. thus, emergentist systemism, informationism and convivialism, shifting research to a remedy for the global challenges, to a reconciliation of determinacy and indeterminacy, and to a logic of emergence, are no academic exercise of no avail. also, common sense is, in principle, capable of understanding those issues of the paradigm shift as well as becoming activist on that premises. the step will be an unprecedented revolutionary one. revolutionary thinking 'needs to focus on future social relations that are not yet actualised. it needs to anticipate them ideationally on a new meta-level, it needs to anticipate the meta-/suprasystem transition of the social systems.' and, taking up an idea of ernst bloch (1967), it 'does not only need to anticipate what is desirable but needs to explore which desirable is also possible in the here and now. only what is potential can be actualised. thus, it looks in the space of possibilities now for the foreshadowing of something that might become a future third' (hofkirchner, 2020b, 4) . the conclusion is that the current state of human evolution has been reached as emergent response to requirements of co-operation through two steps in anthroposociogenesis, namely, from the living together of individual monads towards a joint interaction in dyads and from that to a collective working together that was mediated by social relations -which are the social system's relations of the organisation of the commons -such that a triad has taken over the co-action of humans: a meta-level was constructed as a third that relates the interaction of the group members as a second and any action of a member as a first. now that global conditions require global co-operation, the third needs to be extended to another level ushering in a new phase. current discourses on whether or not our time shall be called anthropocene or whether or not we can stop the climate change or prevent pandemics like the covid-19 one, are dominated by pejorative connotations and negative imaginaries of the future. they lack a focus on the real potentialities of humanity that is just on the point of going through a possible next step of social evolution. extermination is the risk of the crisis. meta-reflexive global citizens, engaging in a global dialogue can kick off the emergence of global governance and thus solve the crisis. fin de siecle social theory -relativism, reduction, and the problem of reason realist social theory -the morphogenetic approach structure, agency and the internal conversation making our way through the world -human reflexivity and social mobility the reflexive imperative in late modernity social evolution: a nonequilibrium systems model an introduction to cybernetics sociology and modern systems theory the synergism hypothesis -a theory of progressive evolution nature's magic -synergy in evolution and the fate of humankind evolutionary systems and society -a general theory of life, mind and culture uncommon sense. tarcher relational sociology -a new paradigm for the social sciences the possibilities of global we-identities die tradition der logik und das konzept einer transklassischen rationalität emergence and the logic of explanation emergent information -a unified theory of information framework self-organisation as the mechanism of development and evolution on the validity of describing 'morphogenic society' as a system and justifyability of thinking about it as a social formation generative mechanisms transforming the social order ethics from systems -origin, development and current state of normativity transdisciplinarity needs systemism. systems 5, 15 creating common good -the global sustainable information society as the good society information for a global sustainable information society social relations -building on ludwig von bertalanffy intelligence, artificial intelligence and wisdom in the global sustainable information society taking the perspective of the third -a contribution to the origins of systems thinking icts connecting global citizens, global dialogue and global governance -a call for needful designs seconde manifeste convivialiste -pour une monde post-néolibéral macroshift -navigating the transformation to a sustainable world emergence and morphogenesis -causal reduction and downward causation the extended mind. the origin of language and culture what is information? propagating organisation in the biosphere, symbolosphere, technosphere and econosphere social systems the evolution of human cooperation the nature of nature sociological theory: what went wrong? routledge global cooperation and the human factor in international relations l'informatisation de la société mega-evolution of information processing systems semiotische schriften, 3 vols the great transformation -the political and economic origins of our time struktur -zur sozialwissenschaftlichen analyse von regeln und regelmäßigkeiten the direction of evolution -the rise of cooperative organization the metasystem transition a natural history of human thinking two key steps in the evolution of human cooperation -the interdependence hypothesis evolutionary systems -biological and epistemological perspectives on selection and self-organization such an account can be reached by a paradigm shift towards emergentist systemism, on the basis of which emergentist informationism is elaborated, on the basis of which, in turn, emergentist convivialism is elaborated. from that perspective, the great bifurcation can be regarded as a problem of coming-of-age of humanity. by accomplishing that evolutionary step, the rise of co-operative organisation would enable 'the emergence of a coordinated and integrated global entity' (stewart, 2014, 35) not seen before. this research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. this research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. key: cord-349581-o320ogmg authors: robertson, lindsay j. title: the technological 'exposure' of populations; characterisation and future reduction date: 2020-05-25 journal: futures doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102584 sha: doc_id: 349581 cord_uid: o320ogmg the nature and level of individuals' exposure to technological systems has been explored previously and is briefly restated here. this paper demonstrates how the concept of technological exposure can be extended to generic needs of individuals, and further to the needs of populations of individuals and even as far as “existential threats” to humanity. technological categories that incur high levels of population exposure are explored, and categories are described. a theoretical basis for reducing population exposure is developed from the basic concepts of technological exposure. technological developments that potentially enable less centralised societies having lower levels of population exposure, are considered for practicality and effectiveness as are the factors that could allow and cause transition to a less technologically centralised model. some conclusions regarding practicality, triggers, and issues arising from a decentralised society are considered and include the key conclusion that a higher level of decentralisation and exposure reduction is both desirable and possible. the fundamental impossibility of never-ending growth have been recognised for a long time (e.g. daly 1990 , henrique et al. 2013 ) and similarly authors (e.g. rao 1975) have recognised the danger of corporates of transnational size. this paper considers an associated but distinct issue, the growing technological vulnerability of populations. increasingly, essential goods and services are only accessible via technological systems that are both sophisticated, and also centralized. in this situation, end-user technological vulnerability becomes significant, but quantifying the extent and nature of such vulnerabilities have been hindered by the complexity of the analysis (haimes & jiang the supply of essential goods and services will involve heterogeneous systems (i.e. systems where goods/services are created by a progression of steps, rather than a system in which completed goods are simply transported/distributed), that involve an arbitrary number of linked operations each of which requires inputs, executes some transformation process, and produces an output that is received by a subsequent process. four essential principles have been proposed (author 2017) to allow and justify the development of a metric that evaluates the contribution of a heterogeneous technological system, to the vulnerability of an individual (author 2017a). these principles are: 1) the metric is applicable to an individual end-user: when an individual user is considered, not only is the performance of the supply system readily defined, but the relevant system description is clearer. 2) the metric acknowledges that events external to a technology system only threaten the output of the technology system if the external events align with a weakness in the technology system. if a hazard does not align with a weakness then it has no significance. conversely if a weakness exists within a technological system and has not been identified, then hazards that can align with the weakness are also unlikely to be recognised. if the configuration of a particular technology system is changed, weaknesses may be removed while other weaknesses may be added. 3) the metric depends upon the observation that although some hazards occur randomly and can be assessed statistically, over a sufficiently long period the probability of these occurring approaches 1.0. the metric also depends upon the observation that intelligently (mis)guided hazards (i.e. arising when a person j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f intentionally seeks a weakness in order to create a hazard) do not occur randomly. the effect of a guided hazard upon a risk assessment is qualitatively different from the effect of a random hazard. the guided hazard will occur every time the perpetrator elects to cause the hazard and therefore such a hazard has a probability of 1.0. 4) the metric depends upon the observation that it is possible to not only describe goods or services that are delivered to the individual (end-user), but also to define a service level at which the specified goods or services either are or are-not delivered. this approach allows the output of a technological system to be expressed as a boolean variable (true/false), and allows the effect of the configuration of a technological system to be measured against a single performance criterion. applying these principles, the arbitrary heterogeneous technological system supplying goods/services at a defined level to an individual, can be described by a configured system of notional and/or/not functions. having represented a specific technological system using a boolean algebraic expression, a 'truth table' can be constructed to display all permutations of process and stream availabilities as inputs, and technological system output as a single true or false value. from the truth table, a count of the cases in which a single input failure will cause output failure, and assign that total to the variable "e1". a count of the cases where two input failures (exclusive of inputs whose failure will alone cause output failure) cause output failure, and assign that total value to e2. a further count of the cases in which three input failures cause output failure (and where neither single nor double input failures within that triple combination would alone cause output failure) and assign that total value to the variable "e3" and similarly for further "e" values. the exposure metric, {e1, e2, e3…}, for a defined system supplying specific goods/services, can be shown to measure the level of vulnerability of the individual to that technological system (author 2017). for many practical cases a generic service could be considered -e.g. "basic food" rather than "fresh milk", and vulnerability assessed by nominating multiple specific services as alternative suppliers (an "or" gate) of a nominated generic service. the exposure of the individual to lack of secure access to the necessities of life, can thus be assessed using exactly the same approach used to assess exposure to nonavailability of any specific need. illustrative examples of generic services could include "all needs for maslow's physiological level". conceptually this would include ((food_a or food_b or food_c…) and warmth and water and shelter) or possibly "all needs to occupy apartment on month-by-month basis". (sewage services and water supply and power supply). the concept of an individual's exposure may be yet further modified and extended to consider the quantification of a population's exposure, in regard to supply of either a particular, or a generic service. it is common for some "population" to need the same services/goods, and obtain these via an identical technological system. the "technological system" that supplies such a population may not be identical to that which supplies an individual: consider a case in which four individuals each rely on their cars to commute to work; for the output "arrive at work", each of their individually-owned cars contribute to the e1 exposure of each of the 4 individuals. if they reach a car-pooling agreement, the "car" then contributes to the e4 exposure for j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f "arrive at work" of each individual, since any of the 4 cars can supply that functionality. a population exposure is developed by modifying an individual exposure evaluation (for a population using a functionally identical service) by considering each functional element used by more than one of the population, and whether each such functional element can be made accessible to more than one. if an exposure level (metric) is then nominated, it is possible in principle to establish the largest population which is subject to this level of exposure. for example, we might identify the largest population using a functionally identical service or supply of goods, that has a non-zero e1 exposure (i.e. has at least on single point of failure): should a city discover that the progressive centralisation of services had resulted in a situation where the whole population of the city had a non-zero e1 value for an essential service, some urgent action would be strongly suggested. conversely, if the supply of generic service to even small suburbs had low exposure values, then a good level of robustness would have been demonstrated for that generic service, at the suburb level. extrapolating these principles, where a "population" is actually the totality of the homo-sapiens species, and the "service" is essential for every individual's survival, then a definition of "existential threat" as proposed by bostrom (2002) , is approached. the analysis of exposure considers loci of failure and hence intentionally avoids consideration of specific hazards or their probabilities. nevertheless, hazards that affect various populations certainly exist, and a short list will serve to illustrate the significance of evaluating population exposure levels. the following list makes no attempt to be comprehensive, but illustrates hazards relevant to large corporates, j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f apartment-dwellers, members of isolated communities and users of electronic communications.  a large group could be criminally held to ransom by malicious encryption of essential data (pathak 2016) .  a large group could be effectively excluded from access to a service because of conditions imposed by a (single, national) owner (tanczer, et al. 2016 , deibert 2003 , sandywell 2006 .  an isolated group (on antarctica, moon or perhaps mars) could cease to be viable if they cannot import supplies that cannot be generated locally (p?kalski & sznajd the occupiers of an apartment block could encounter a situation in where there was minimal (financial or other) pressure on the provider of sewage removal services to restore service, but where the occupiers faced major consequences (need to de-camp) in the absence of this service. similarly, (author 2017a) has noted that a failure to provide financial transaction services to a small retailer may incur negligible financial cost to a bank, but may cause the retailer's business to fail. these are examples of asymmetric consequences.  the whole of humanity exists on the planet earth: a failure of the natural environment can doom either a regional or possibly a global population (diamond 2005) , and can be certainly be considered to be an "existential threat", as defined by bostrom (2002) .  persons born early in the 20th century were very familiar with the possibility of highly unjust treatments (e.g. loss of employment), if private information became known -and they acted accordingly. for many born early in this century, such concerns seem remote. personal information privacy issues have thus failed to gain a j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f high visibility, and we have perhaps become blasé about the costs of lack of privacy. nevertheless, the ubiquity of surveillance (miller 2014 , citron & gray 2013 , the increasing frequency of major data breaches (edwards et al. 2016) , and the recent rise in algorithmic decision-making (moses 2018) on such matters as health insurance, credit worthiness, validity of job application and security targeting are bringing this issue to increased prominence.  the recent revelation of hardware vulnerabilities in general processors (eckersley & portnoy 2017 , ermolov & goryachy 2017 ) demonstrated the significance of unappreciated weaknesses, even when overall operation of a system has been reliable. other publications (author 2010 , martin 1996 have noted society's vulnerability to technological systems and considered the relationship between time-todisaster and time-to-repair: that analysis was not an exposure analysis, but did consider the range of services corresponding to a broad category of human needs and effectively considered the significance of the exposure categories noted above. later works (author 2017a) have analysed the individual exposure associated with a broad range of goods and services. those works also noted that the analysed values for these specific examples could be reasonably extrapolated to many other similar goods and services. the general analyses of (author 2010) did attempt to cover the scope of individual needs and as such identified a range of services (or goods-supply needs) that were considered to incur high levels of vulnerability. the more detailed exposure analyses of (author 2017a) were indexed to the exposure of an individual, and although a limited number of examples were studied, these were considered to be representative of the high-exposure items relevant to j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f individuals living in urbanised settings in the 21st century. the assessment of the population exposure of those exemplar technological systems shows several distinctive changes from the analysis indexed to the individual. primarily, the e1 items that arise close to the final point of use by the individual lose significance and for many cases cease to be significant at the e3 level (arbitrarily chosen as the cut-off point for consideration). the components that remain significant are those that genuinely represent exposure values for the population under consideration. the analysis of population exposure of a broad spectrum of needs showed that it was possible to identify some high exposure technological fields, specifically complex components, complex artificial substances, finance, communications, energy and information, these are considered more fully as follows;  complex components: complex components may be distinguished from large components (such as a building, hydroelectric dam, or road-bridge), and qualitatively described as being beyond the capacity of a skilled individual craftsperson to fashion in reasonable time and to required tolerances. under this category we might consider such items as a carburettor body for an internal combustion engine, food processing equipment and construction machinery (crane). for many consumer items within the "complex component" category, the population exposure is significantly lower than the individual exposure, since numerous examples of item exist (either owned by others, or stockpiled for sale). the level of centralisation may however be very high, with (for example) perhaps only one worldwide source of a carburettor body for a specific vehicle.  complex artificial substances: complex artificial substances includes advanced metallurgical alloys, advanced plastics and composites, drugs, and vaccines: these j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f are distinguished by the complexity of composition, rather than complexity of form. in many cases the centralisation that causes high exposure levels for the production of complex substances, has resulted primarily from available economies of scale, and only secondarily from the substances' complexity. some complex substances (notably pharmaceuticals) have patent protection, which creates centralisation at up to global level.  finance: as the range of goods and services, and the geographical scope of supply of those goods and services has increased, so has the need for the facility to exchange value in return for goods and services: this has inevitably led to elaborate mechanisms for secure exchange of value. recognising that the exchange of value can also facilitate illegal activities, state actors have also enacted significant surveillance and control of financial transactions. technologies associated with the exchange of value have acquired high large levels of exposure (colloquially, many things that can go wrong) and high levels of centralisation, in the process of meetings these demands.  communications: the ubiquity of the internet has become a remarkable feature of the last 20 years: although there are exceptions, most areas of the earth and a very large proportion of total population can communicate via internet. although cellphone use is common, it is evolving as a mobile access connection, with the internet carrying the data. internet communications has been made possible by wellestablished protocols, however high level systems for routing continue to be centralised, and while problems are rare, nation-states have occasionally decided to discontinue connection to the internet, showing that high levels of centralisation exist (howard et al. 2011) . although the feasibility of internet communications can be attributed to open source protocols, the practicality of current connectivity has been j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f largely enabled by the very large data rates possible via fibre-optic cables, yet this capacity has also introduced a high level of exposure for both individuals and populations. duplication of undersea fibre-optic cables has somewhat reduced the level of population exposure, yet the trend for dependence on high-data-rates has increased at similar pace (market forces have driven the need for additional cables), and communications via internet carry a high level of population exposure. recent reports (rose 2017 , clark 2016 have noted that the disruption of a very small number of fibre-optic cable would lead to unacceptable slowdowns, and trends to ownership of undersea cables by corporate entities further contributes to e1 values of exposure and high population exposure. the numbers of cables in service show that internet communications is centralised at a small-nation level.  energy: energy has been noted as key to civilisation (smil 2017) . coke allowed the smelting of iron, and oil enabled almost all current transportation. coal, nuclear and geothermal heat and hydro storage allow electricity generation on-demand. national power transmission systems generally have high reliability and many have some level of design redundancy. nevertheless, the generation and distribution of electric power incurs significant individual and population exposure: large power stations are bespoke designs as are large transformers (sobczak & behr 2015) , and transmission networks may face significant "resilience" issues (carvajal et al. 2013 , sidhu 2010 . liquid fuels can be stockpiled at national level, and to a lesser extent locally, however the level of stockpiling is limited -and even the higher levels of stockpiling are likely to be small compared to the time to rebuild a major production plant (terminal, or refinery). at the consumer and industrial user-level, although solar pv and wind can produce power at $/kwh rates close to thermal generation, but currently no economically viable technology that allows storage of megawatt-hours  information: information, whether medical reference information, contractual records or engineering design information, is not a coincidental by-product of a technological society, it is information that fundamentally allows the design and construction of technological systems and to the full operation of society (dartnell 2014 , shapiro 2009 , van den heuvel 2017 ). yet while it has become possible to generate and transmit enormous quantities of information, the information storage remains a particularly high-exposure issue (bergeron 2001) . currently the ascii codes largely standardise information representation, and protocols for transmission are also largely standardised but a gap in the standardisation of information storage (including writing and recovery) contributes to a high exposure for the final delivery of information to users. hard-disk drives are still the most common storage technology, yet these have short lives, and use proprietary data storage formats plus proprietary approaches to the writing and recovery of data. this issue has been wellreported, authors such as (cerf 2015) have predicted a "digital dark age", i.e. a future society that cannot recover/read most of the information generated in the current era. this describes a situation of high individual and population exposure, and since there j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f are few of manufacturers of hdd's, information storage can also be noted to illustrate centralisation at multi-nation level. several technologies allowing longterm storage have been proposed (kazansky et al 2016, longnow foundation; nanoarchival™ technology) but these are currently expensive and lack the integration to allow them to truly offer changes to population exposure. by contrast, some fields have generally low population exposure: basic building materials, foodstuffs, natural fabrics and clothing are commonly supplied via relatively simple technological systems in which technological design redundancies are commonly large, and for which population exposure is therefore low. technologies such as creation of ceramics and glassblowing may require skill but are also not dependent on high technological sophistication and so contribute low technological exposure. similarly, the collection and storage of rainwater is feasible with low technological exposure for even densely populated urban populations. in addition to identifying high exposure fields, it is also possible to identify categories of exposure contribution that commonly apply across a range of technological fields. these are proposed to include initial resource availability, complex unit operations, lack of buffering, single points of failure (spof), contributory systems, highly centralised processes and "practical unavailability", and are described more fully as follows: initial resource availability: all technological systems producing goods and services for users, ultimately depend upon raw materials and viable environmental conditions. where raw materials cease to be available, or environmental conditions change permanently, services to users will inevitably be affected. raw material supplies and acceptable environmental conditions must therefore be identified (diamond 2005) j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f as sources of exposure and hence vulnerability to users. complex unit operations: we use the descriptor "complex" as a characteristic of a process whose internal operation is practically unknowable to the user and cannot realistically be repaired by the user. personal computers, routers and related equipment are examples. it is also possible to consider situations where a critical application has been compiled from an outdated programming language and runs on a computer for which no spare hardware is available (hignet 2018). another example might consider critical information held on a very old storage medium (teja 1985) . these examples illustrate three categories of complex processes: in the first case, while the inner workings of a pc may be exceedingly complex, the format of incoming data (tcp/ip packets) and protocols (www, email etc.) are in the public domain (fall & stevens 2011 ) and so it is not only possible but practical for alternative machines to offer the same services. in the second case, assuming the functional specifications of the application processes are known, the application can be re-coded (and fully documented) using a language for which larger numbers of maintenance programmers exist, and on a more common platform. the third case of data encoded on old storage medium, illustrates a subcategory where the internal details of the storage are proprietary (not in public domain), alternative equipment is unavailable, and creation of replica equipment for reading the data is probably impractical, leading some authors e.g. (cerf 2015) to express fears of a "digital dark age". lack of buffering: for the supply of long-life products, it is both possible and practical to provide buffer stocks at various points in the process. by contrast, since ac power (for example) is not readily storable, all processes involving uses of ac power will fail immediately if the power supply fails. single points of failure (spof): all single points-of-failure (spof) contribute to e1 values and so make a primary contribution to users' vulnerability. three subcategories of spof are noted: the first is j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f where delivery of services to users involves some processes immediately adjacent to the user, known as "last mile" services in the telecommunications field. the second subcategory of spof is illustrated by considering a small rural town whose eftpos, landline phone service, cell-phone service and internet connection have all been progressively migrated to data services, carried by a single fibre-optic cable and thus have inadvertently created a spof. the third is where a particular failure will inevitably cause failure of other components that are not functionally connected -a cascading failure. finally it is noted that contributory systems are a common source of exposure: whenever a system is made dependent upon another, the contributory system's exposures are reflected in the total exposure to the user. a common example is where a simple user service is made dependent upon internet access; the mandatory internet access may add huge levels of exposure to a system that would otherwise incur low levels of vulnerability. some specific technologies including artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons and asteroid strikes have been examined, and authors such as baum (2018) have pondered their potential to incur existential threats by threatening multiple systems. others including baum (2015) and green (2016) have considered approaches to limiting the scope of such hazards. the above categories of exposure may apply to any technological process; there are additionally several categories that are specifically relevant to the study of "population exposure", these include highly centralised processes, for example, the evacuation and treatment of sewage requires a network of pipes and pumps to collect sewage and deliver it to the treatment station. this is an example of a centralised system that is large but technologically simple. other examples of large centralised systems include financial transaction systems (o'mahony et al. 1997) , and the international data transmission systems of undersea fibre-optic cables (clark 2016) . such systems tend to j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f be monopolies and are commonly controlled by entities that have little if any obligation to provide service or to negotiate terms acceptable to individual users. authors such as li et al. (2019) have shown that highly interconnected systems have similar characteristics to centralised systems, and it is well-recognised that the most "centralised" system is earth's natural environment, because the natural environment (including air and water) are essential to all life. practical unavailability: consider the hypothetical case where a user wishes to communicate sensitive information, but only has access to one data transmission facility that is known to be under surveillance. although technically operational, the inevitable absence of privacy associated with that data transmission facility has made the facility practically unavailable. for technological systems that are highly centralised and near-monopoly, practical unavailability is a significant possibility. the en metric has been explained earlier in terms of its significance for measuring vulnerability, however a wider and more future-oriented applicability of the metric itself can also be demonstrated in several ways. the assumption that there is an average cost of defending any vulnerability could be challenged but across a broad enough spread of examples, it is workable. under that broad assumption, whereas the cost of defence for an e3 exposurecontributor is precisely the same as the cost of defence for a contributor to an e1 vulnerability (it is the cost of protecting one only vulnerability, since the e3 contributor requires successful attack of all three vulnerabilities), the cost of mounting a successful attack on a e3 vulnerability is 3 times greater than the cost of attacking a vulnerability j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f contributing to the e1 value, since the attacker needs to identify and successfully attack all 3 e3-contributory nodes simultaneously. in addition to its value for measuring vulnerability, the exposure metric is therefore also broadly significant for planning the reduction in vulnerability of a system. considering the generation of an exposure metric, the process itself provides valuable insights into options for reduction of the final values. the process of generating an exposure metric must be started from the delivery point, and follow a systematic redrawing and track-back process until a justifiable end-point is reached. the selection of a justifiable end-point has been addressed elsewhere, and could be associated with "no further contributors to an en level" criterion. the process of achieving a final representation of the system will very likely require a progressive redrawing of stream and process relationships; an example of a common re-drawing is presented in figure 1 . in a practical process of building an exposure metric, subsystems (which may have been analysed separately) commonly contribute goods or services to "higher" systems. if the exposure metric of a subsystem is known then there is little value in recreating a truth table for a higher level super-system, that re-explores all of the inputs to every sub-system. the more-effective approach is to consider the point at which the subsystem output contributes to the input of a gate within the higher level system, and how the subsystem exposure metric is transmitted/accumulated by the upstream gate of the super-system. we may generalise this process by considering that each input to a gate (boolean and or or operation) has an exposure vector, and developing the principles by which the gate output can be calculated from these inputs. this is illustrated in figure 2 . for the and gate, the contributory exposure vectors are simply added. for the or gate, the issue is more complex, but the higher levels of exposure are quickly avoided. the process of generating the metric will itself highlight sources of large exposure, and hence specific options for reduction. the detailed process for analysis of exposure has illustrated how the e values are accumulated and how specific exposure reduction options may be identified. generalised approaches to the reduction of the exposure of a population can also be identified. the process of redrawing shows that even where alternative subsystems can supply higher systems, if there is a locus of weakness that is common to alternative subsystems, the exposure analysis will ensure that such facts are preserved and the e1 contribution will actually appear in the exposure value for the whole target consumer (group). if the "o" ring seal failure had been identified as a contributor to the e1 j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f exposure of the thiokol solid booster rocket then the elimination of all e1 values for the parent system that was the challenger space shuttle, could not have been achieved unless the "o" ring weakness were addressed. the use of an exposure metric therefore potentially addresses the colloquial saying "it's always the smallest things that get you". one of the learnings from the analysis of the "challenger" tragedy was that even known subsystem weaknesses could become lost as analyses were progressively summarised. when genuinely independent, alternative sources are available, their effect on the next-highest systems (process, consumer or group) is illustrated by the operation of an "or" gate. if 4 genuinely independent/alternative subsystems that each have exposure vectors with non-zero values of e1, are combined via an "or" gate, the higher system does not see any exposure at above the e4 level from that source. this principle might be qualitatively or intuitively perceived, but the effect upon an analysis of exposure provides a starkly quantitative analysis. it may also be observed that while reducing the exposure of each subsystem would require separately addressing each contributor to the subsystems e1, e2 and e3 values (potentially a major task), if 4 genuinely alternative subsystems exist then the combined "or" exposure has no nonzero contributor more serious than e4 and may warrant no further action. whereas many 20th century devices were designed for a single purpose and high throughput (mass production), some recent trends have been to devices that can be repurposed -and the pinnacle of flexibility is the human being! for any case where a piece of equipment contributes to the e1 value (is a single point-of-failure), if the capability of that equipment were able to be undertaken by multiple options (e.g. j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f alternative human operators), the exposure contribution may be reduced to the en level, where n is the number of alternatives or persons capable of undertaking the equipment's function. an illustration may help to clarify this principle: if a sensor provides input that is required by an upstream function, that upstream function and all higher dependencies are exposed to the capability of the sensor to provide input: if 'n' humans are able to provide their best assessment of the sensor's input, then the exposure of the higher system to that functionality is reduced to the en level. considering the high-exposure technological fields that were identified earlier, generalised approaches to reducing the accrued actual exposure include standardisation of specifications that allow competitive supply of complex components and complex substances, avoiding the large exposure of some contributory systems, retention of genuine alternatives (e.g. cash/gold as well as electronic transactions). there is an intuitive appreciation that it is undesirable to have high vulnerability levels for systems that affect large numbers of persons. some may also intuitively appreciate that trends to centralisation, driven by economies of scale, increases the technological vulnerability of large population groups. the analysis of population exposure and the principles of exposure analysis therefore provide a quantitative approach that can be used not only to assess the level of exposure of current systems, but more importantly to show quite widely applicable principles for exposure reduction. specifically the analysis shows that centralisation of production almost inevitably j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f creates higher population exposure values, and provides a sound theoretical basis for promoting decentralisation of production as an approach for the reduction of population exposure. it is important to consider the practicality of population exposure reduction by decentralisation; this is reviewed within each of the fields previously identified as incurring high exposure: a) complex components. in order for this functionality to be genuinely available at a significantly decentralised level, we can consider the sub-systems that are required, and the current level of maturity of technology options within each of those subsystems. for a complex component, relevant subsystems include those associated with the supply of materials and the creation of complex shapes from basic material stocks. for many cases, assembly of components is likely to be straightforward but we must also consider cases where assembly itself requires specialised equipment. for the majority of cases, the composition of the complex component can be assumed to be uniform, however cases where composition is not uniform (e.g. multilayer circuit board) must also be acknowledged. equipment for additive and subtractive manufacturing is available; specifically 3d printing equipment is readily available at small scale, and large scale implementations (bassoli et al. 2007 , kraft et al. 2013 ) have been tested. a moderately standardised format for 3d printer design information exists as iso 14649-1:2003, and iso 10303:2014 (many sections) , and instructions for operating additive and subtractive manufacturing equipment are such that high skill levels are un-necessary. a significant body of designs (pinshape™,  complex substances. in order for complex substance synthesis to be genuinely available at a significantly decentralised level, we can consider the types of complex substances that are of interest, the sub-systems that are required for each, and the current level of maturity of technology options within each of those subsystems. broadly, the complex substances could be categorised as: complex alloys, complex inorganic liquids (oils, detergents, etc.), complex organic materials (pharmaceuticals, insecticides, herbicides), complex substances derived from living organisms -yeasts, vaccines, fermentation bacteria, and polymers. for a complex molecular substance, it is currently common for a range of supply chains to bring raw materials to a synthesis plant. a sequence of synthesis steps (including unit operations of heating and cooling, separation, reaction, precipitation and dissolution) are carried out to generate a complex substance. for "organic" compounds, temperatures are generally limited to below 120ºc. for a complex metallic component, it is currently common for granulated pure metals or metal-compounds to be melted together, sometimes in vacuum or inert gas, and then a controlled set of cooling/holding/reheating steps are used to generate the final material. considering whether these syntheses could be practically decentralised, drexler's seminal paper (drexler 1981) considered the options and practicality issues associated with general-purpose synthesis of complex substances. since 2010, the "engineering and physical sciences research council" (epsrc) have been funding a "dial-a-molecule" challenge which runs parallel to the work of others (crow 2014 , peplow 2014 , and commercial ventures such as "mattersift™" (manipulating matter at the molecular scale) have demonstrated the progress towards this goal. even where general-purpose synthesis capabilities are not available, the availability of knowledge does in principle allow relatively complex syntheses e.g. daraprim™, to be undertaken by small groups (hunjan 2016) . for j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f inorganic materials, progress has been made with solar pyrometallurgy (neelameggham 2008) and although much development is needed, there would seem to be no fundamental reason why the required temperatures and composition constraints could not be achieved on small scale and with limited equipment. published proposals (crow 2014 , peplow 2014 ) have proposed that it is possible to build a standardised facility capable of carrying out an arbitrary sequence of unit operations required to make any organic compound. while the technologically maturity of decentralised synthesis of complex materials is lower than the decentralised production of complex components, many of the processes are actually feasible at present, and others are rapidly maturing.  finance: decentralised tokens of wealth (tokens of exchange) have existed for as long as societies have existed. in order for a token of exchange to continue to avoid the large exposure of current centralised financial systems, a token must retain the qualities of ubiquitous acceptance, transparent and irrevocable transactions; this is currently feasible. blockchain technology (swan 2015) has recently offered another decentralised system for secure and irrevocable transfer of wealth, allowing broad acceptance and thus meets the criteria for acceptability. blockchain-based currencies are however reliant on a communications system that is currently highly centralised, and so fall short of the security expected and exist in numbers of as-yet-incompatible forms. the difficulties with current blockchain technologies seem to be solvable, and this technology offers a promising approach to decentralised exchange of value. current, high-security banknotes and bullion fulfil many of the requirements for a decentralised approach to transactions, and do not incur the exposure that is inherent with blockchain-based currencies, but do incur a high risk of theft and the exposure of a physical transmission system if the transaction is to span significant distance. j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f  communications: a communications system could be considered decentralised (within the population size envisaged) when it has no e1 value above zero, and is capable of communicating with any other (decentralised) population. secure encryption is currently possible (schneier 2015) , and despite some practical difficulties, mature approaches such as one-time-pads, seem to be proof against even projected (de wolf 2017) technologies. radio transmission on shortwave bands (using ionospheric reflection) of encrypted material can be received globally. assuming a 10 mhz "open" band, and a very narrow bandwidth (and very slow transmission rate), many channels would be available in principle. this is a low level of practicality, but is must be noted that completely decentralised communication is inherently feasible. massively-redundant fibre-optic cable systems with decentralised routing systems are also technically feasible, and it is even feasible to consider significantly higher levels of design redundancy for undersea cables. while both feasible and practical for land-based systems, massive design redundancy appears to be feasible for undersea routes but not practical for the exposure level sought. selfdiscovering radio-based mesh communications for land-based systems are (author 2007) feasible at present and are likely to be more practical and economical than massively redundant fibre-optic systems for land-based communications. hybrid approaches, e.g. using self-discovering mesh for communications within a single land mass, and allowing access to a significant number of undersea cables, could meet the population levels and exposure levels to allow a claim of feasible decentralisation using current technology. suggests that fundamental breakthroughs may not be likely. so-called "ultracapacitor" technology (de rosa et al. 2017 ) may or may-not overtake battery storage for smaller power levels in the future. the decentralised production of biofuel using macro-algae (zev et al. 2017 , chen et al. 2017 ) is also immature, but the capability to treat sewage and create storable hydrocarbon fuel with high energy-density is promising and is perhaps the decentralised heating-energy storage mode that is closest to technical maturity at present. information. the information storage requirements for a community could include significant medical information, all data required for manufacture of complex components and synthesis of complex substances in addition to contractual, financial, genealogical etc. data. human-readable information storage (books, tablets) have very low exposure and high decentralisation currently. a decentralised and low-exposure approach for storage of machine readable information does j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f however pose a non-trivial technological challenge. existing computer hard-disk drive storage technology is mature, but this approach has a very high technological exposure since the format of storage and the recovery of data is via a complex and proprietary system, and the actual storage medium is not user-accessible. a criterion of e1<1 could in principle be achieved by massive redundancy, but in practice the use of identical operating systems and software make it likely that residual exposure will remain. technologies such as the 5d glass storage approach (kazansky et al. 2016) or proposals by the longnow foundation; or organisations such as "nanoarchival™ technology" avoid the reliance upon proprietary data retrieval systems and provide very long life -but still lack a mature and decentralised datawriting approach, and a mature and decentralised approach for reading stored data back into a machine-readable form. the advances needed in order to achieve a durable, low-exposure storage medium are immature but are technologically achievable. other: it is useful to note many other fields in which significant capabilities can be achieved with simple components: while far short of laboratory quality, the principles of spectrography and chromatography (lichtenegger et al. 2017 , ghobadian et al. 2017 are actually accessible at a domestic level, and microscope (prakash et al. 2017) (jones 1979) and mars explorer spacecraft. organisations such as the longnow corporation have considered the requirements for durable engineering, and plan items such as a "10,000 year clock". in the context of this paper and earlier studies (author 2010), we can consider that it is practical to design at least some classes of components and equipment for a usable timeframe that is demonstrably longer than the time required to re-develop a production facility to recreate them; this criterion is a valid test of low exposure practicality. in summary: low exposure and decentralised options for a range of technologies have been examined: some are mature and some have a low level of technological maturity. it is likely that some could mature rapidly (e.g. additive/subtractive manufacturing, self-discovering communications networks, information storage), while others such as energy storage have absorbed enormous r&d effort already with limited progress. this does not mean that a trend to decentralisation cannot begin, simply that a decentralised society may have more sophisticated capabilities in some fields than others. the ability to form fixed-duration, ad-hoc associations to enable some largescale development are not only possible for a society comprising decentralised groups, but are considered to be essential. this conclusion differs from the assertion by jebari & jebari (2015) that "…isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges…" are appropriate, rather proposing intentionally independent population units who control their specific interactions with other units, achieving reduced vulnerability but without forfeiting the capability to aggregate selected resources for mutual gain. smaller-scale concepts such a crowdsourcing approaches are already demonstrating somewhat similar options for shorter-duration, ad-hoc design advances. situations such as ships travelling in convoy are common and perhaps form a close analogy, demonstrating both the independence of each and the possibility of cooperation. this paper focussed on broad issues of technological vulnerability, but implementation details (resource usage efficiency, waste creation/treatment, gross greenhouse gas emissions and many other issues are also acknowledged. sociological/anthropological research (dunbar 2010) has indicated that quite small populations provide a sufficient sociological group size for most, and this conclusion seems to remain broadly valid even where high levels of electronic connection are possible (maccarron 2016). the concept of a technological system's exposure provides both a tool and a metric, which can be applied to either individuals or to populations of individuals, and can supply useful data to the forecasting process. population exposure is found to be high for many categories of current technological systems, and the current trend is to increased levels of population exposure. the categories that have been considered as typical, span and affect many goods and services that would be considered essential. items as diverse as internet usage and financial transactions already have multi-national levels of population exposure (and hence high levels of centralisation) and although various authors (diamond 2005) j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f does not use the term "exposure" nor precisely describe the concept, he explains that environmental damage actually has a global exposure level. population exposure is a topic that does generate intuitive awareness of vulnerability: it can be observed that awareness of technological vulnerability exists at both national level (see j critical infrastructure protection, pub elsevier) and at individual level (slovic 2016 , martin 1996 , huddleston 2017 , kabel & chmidling 2014 , reiderer 2018 . since a measure of exposure correlates closely with the effort required to protect a system, a continued trend to centralisation and increased population exposure is very likely to lead to progressively herculean efforts to ensure that vulnerable loci are not attacked; such efforts are likely to include progressively wider surveillance to identify potential threats, and progressively stronger efforts to control and monitor access -each of which are themselves factors that can serve to make the service practically unavailable to individuals. if no value were attached to high and rising levels of population exposure, then highly centralised options are likely to continue to be preferred -but the consequences of the high and rising population exposure are demonstrated by reference to a metric of exposure, are also intuitively understood and are illustrated by the "continued centralisation" option in figure 3 . if there were indeed no technological options for reducing the level of population exposure without major reductions in the levels of technological sophistication available, then large populations are indeed exposed to the danger of losing access to services. that scenario would indeed result in a catastrophic situation where a major reduction in sophistication of services occurs, but the remnant j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f exposure is also reduced. that scenario has been labelled as the "apocalyptic survivor" scenario in figure 3 . the third alternative shown in figure 3 , is for progress towards a significantly decentralised society, with a comparatively low population exposure and a level of sophistication (in terms of technological services and goods available) that does not decrease and actually has the real possibility of advancing with time. in this paper, the description of "forecastable options" has been considered under each of the categories of high population exposure, and it has been noted that for each of them technological developments that enable significantly reduced population exposure exist. the current level of technological maturity of these options vary, but none are infeasible and complement the proposals advanced by a number of authors including gillies (2015) and blühdorn (2017) . j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f in the course of considering decentralisation options, this paper has identified a small number of technological capabilities that would facilitate a more decentralised option, but which are currently at a low level of technological maturity. these include:  further advances on general purpose chemical synthesis  a durable, open-source machine-accessible information storage system that can be created and read in a decentralised context (requiring only minor development)  an self-discovering network using an open-source approach to allow information transmission (requiring some development)  a large-capacity, durable and economically accessible energy storage technology (requiring significant development)  further development of trustworthy and decentralised financial transaction systems (requiring some development).  a non-technological system to allow ad-hoc cooperation between decentralised groups, allowing resource aggregation without long-term centralisation (requiring significant development). despite the inevitable variations in technological maturity across a broad range of technologies, the analyses have concluded firstly that centralisation and high population exposure result in severe and increasing vulnerabilities for large numbers of persons, and secondly that the combination of maturing decentralised technological capabilities and the storage of knowledge allows a transition to a "sophisticated decentralisation" model to be considered as a serious option. while not the primary topic of this paper, it is noted that even in the presence of technological options, change may not occur until some triggering event occurs; events that could trigger a more rapid transition to a "sophisticated decentralisation" could j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f include a truly major and long-term disruption of some highly centralised technology such as undersea cables or an irremediable malfunction of international financial systems, or a pandemic requiring high levels of population isolation 1 . the analysis of technological exposure and reduced exposure options have concluded that practical options for substantial decentralisation exist, or could be reasonably forecast as possible. it has also been proposed that there are substantive and immediate reasons to consider a qualitatively distinct "fork" from the high population exposure of current centralised society to a more decentralised model. any selection of a decentralised technological model might be triggered by some event which crystallised the exposure of a highly centralised model: the drivers that had produced the centralised model will still remain however, and will arguably tend to cause a re-centralisation without ongoing efforts. this issue is outside the scope of this paper, but is noted as a topic requiring further research. the capability for decentralised and machine-accessible storage of knowledge and the creation of complex components and substances has recently, or will soon, create a cusp at which local equipment is capable of reproducing itself. sufficient computation facilities at local scale are already able to make genuine advances, and with equipment capable of replication, is sufficient to allow fully sustainable, sophisticated and decentralised communities to diverge from current trends. declarations of interest: none consumer preferences for household-level battery energy storage on some recent definitions and analysis frameworks for risk, vulnerability, and resilience 3d printing technique applied to rapid casting confronting future catastrophic threats to humanity dark ages ii: when the digital data die eco-political hopes beyond sustainability. global discourse existential risks: analyzing human extinction scenarios and related hazards calling dunbar's numbers colombian ancillary services and international connections: current weaknesses and policy challenges digital vellum macroalgae for biofuels production: progress and perspectives undersea cables and the future of submarine competition addressing the harm of total surveillance: a reply to professor neil richards mechanics of turn-milling operations the anything factory sustainable growth-an impossibility theorem the knowledge: how to rebuild civilization in the aftermath of a cataclysm black code: censorship, surveillance, and the militarisation of cyberspace collapse: how societies choose to fail or succeed cascading blackout overall structure and some implications for sampling and mitigation molecular engineering: an approach to the development of general capabilities for molecular manipulation how many friends does one person need?: dunbar's number and other evolutionary quirks intel's management engine is a security hazard, and users need a way to disable it hype and heavy tails: a closer look at data breaches how to hack a turned off computer, or running unsigned code in intel management engine the protocols kinematic self-replicating machines an innovative homemade instrument for the determination of doxylamine succinate based on the electrochemiluminescence of ru(bpy)2+ 3 paul mason's postcapitalism emerging technologies, catastrophic risks, and ethics: three strategies for reducing risk a critical review of cascading failure analysis and modelling of power system in: near-net shape manufacturing of miniature spur gears by wire spark erosion machining. materials forming, machining and tribology leontief based model of risk in complex interconnected infrastructures weaving the web: otlet's visualizations of a global information society and his concept of a universal civilization long-lost satellite tech is so old nasa can't read it. tech & science. nasa image. observer. nasa satellite lost for 13 years recovered by amateur astronomer when do states disconnect their digital networks? regime responses to the political uses of social media. the communication review conceptual design and dimensional synthesis for a 3-dof module of the trivariant-a novel 5-dof reconfigurable hybrid robot prepper" as resilient citizen. responses to disasters and climate change daraprim) drug's key ingredient recreated by high school students in sydney industrial automation systems and integration --physical device control --data model for computerized numerical controllers automation systems and integration -product data representation and exchange. it is known informally as "step existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy automatic fault protection in the voyager spacecraft disaster prepper: health, identity, and american survivalist culture eternal 5d data storage via ultrafast-laser writing in glass nasa tests limits of 3-d printing with powerful rocket engine check. nasa engineers prepare to hot-fire test a 3-d printed rocket part on test stand 115 at the marshall center recent progress on cascading failures and recovery in interdependent networks visible light spectral domain optical coherence microscopy system for ex vivo imaging longnow foundation total surveillance, big data, and predictive crime technology: privacy's perfect storm is your algorithm dangerous? solar pyrometallurgy-an historic review electronic payment systems. artech house organic synthesis: the robo-chemist. the race is on to build a machine that can synthesize any organic compound. it could transform chemistry permanent archival solution: nanoarchival provides ultra-long term archival solutions to enterprise customers, based on its proprietary a dangerous trend of cybercrime: ransomware growing challenge population dynamics with and without selection optical microscope 3d printing based on imaging data: review of medical applications doomsday goes mainstream high performance spiro ammonium electrolyte for electric double layer capacitors emerging threats: outer space, cyberspace, and undersea cables von neumann machine. encyclopedia of computer science. 4th. pages 1841-1842 monsters in cyberspace cyberphobia and cultural panic in the information age. information applied cryptography, second edition: protocols, algorthms, and source code in c, 20th anniversary edition isbn information. online isbn: 9781119183471. print isbn a new rationale for returning to the moon? protecting civilization with a sanctuary a thesis submitted to faculty of graduate studies and research, mcgill university in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of the perception of risk energy and civilization; a history hulking transformers prove a challenge for vulnerable grid. e&e 2015-11-24 and see energy news digest for blockchain: blueprint for a new economy censorship and surveillance in the digital age: the technological challenges for academics the designer's guide to disk drives the potential impact of quantum computers on society. ethics and information technology high-yield bio-oil production from macroalgae (saccharina japonica) in supercritical ethanol and its combustion behaviour key: cord-304013-nzigx0k0 authors: lipinski, tom; ahmad, darem; serey, nicolas; jouhara, hussam title: review of ventilation strategies to reduce the risk of disease transmission in high occupancy buildings date: 2020-09-13 journal: nan doi: 10.1016/j.ijft.2020.100045 sha: doc_id: 304013 cord_uid: nzigx0k0 an unforeseen pandemic is facing the world caused by a corona virus known as sars-cov-2. numerous measures are being put in place to try and reduce the spread of this deadly disease, with the most effective response to the outbreak being mass quarantines, a public health technique borrowed from the middle ages. the widely accepted main transmission mechanism is through droplet borne pathways. however, many researchers and studies are considering that this virus can also spread via the airborne route and remain for up to three hours in the air. this is leading to questions as to whether enough is being done regarding ventilation to reduce the risk of the spread of this or other diseases that may be air borne. ventilation and air conditioning systems are the main focus when it comes to the transmission of such deadly pathogens and should be appropriately designed and operated. this paper reviews and critically evaluates the current ventilation strategies used in buildings to assess the state of the art and elaborates if there is room for further development, especially for high occupancy buildings, to reduce or eradicate the risk of pathogen transmission and adapt ventilation measures to new threats posed by pandemics. an unprecedented viral disease has brought our globe to a halt, impacting most of mankind's activities. at the time of writing, more than 620,000 people are dead worldwide, the global economy is on the verge of an unprecedented depression, with the covid-19 pandemic still raging and a second wave predicted as inevitable. covid-19 belongs to the group of coronavirus, also known as severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (sars-cov-2) [1] . this virus has already surpassed the number of infections of two other epidemics in this century [2] . current measures introduced worldwide, and designed to control the spread of the virus include lockdowns, selfisolation, social distancing, use of face masks and the recommendation to wash hands as frequently as possible, [3] . n95 masks have been recommended by who and have been known to help prevent infected individuals from spreading the virus if not necessarily preventing healthy individuals from contracting it from others [4] , [1] . covid-19 is one of the most contagious viruses that mankind has experienced, spreading across most of china in only 14 days [2] , then worldwide within a couple of months. the widely accepted mechanism of covid-19 transmission is by droplet and contact methods as backed-up by the who, but the possible air transmission route has been broadly documented by new scientific research [5] and the who is not ruling out this possibility. as individuals are infected with the respiratory disease, the rate of expiratory events increases which in turn increases the generation and dispersion of droplets containing the virus. such expiratory events include not only coughing and sneezing but also talking [6] . considering how fast this disease has spread across the world, many researchers [7] state that an additional mode of transmission, nuclei borne by air droplets, plays an important role in the spread of this virus. flow dynamics of air particles can be complex and include turbulent jets, droplet evaporation, airmucous interaction and particle sedimentation amongst others [5] . these flow dynamics and particle interaction with air is at the core of transmission of the covid-19 virus. as mentioned previously, a variety of physical containment methods have been introduced, such as wearing the recommended personal protective equipment (ppe) and improving personal hygiene. however, since the vast majority of infections occur indoors [8] , it has been noted that ventilation strategies can play a vital role in controlling or at least reducing the risk of respiratory infections [9] . droplet nuclei are fine air particles that remain airborne for a considerable length of time. any air particles below 5 micrometres are classified as being able to be airborne. sars-cov-2 is yet to be officially classified as an airborne disease by the who, however, a weight of emerging evidence is being established for aerosol driven infections [10] [11] [12] [13] . the chartered institution of building services engineers, cibse, recently provided guidance on using ventilation as a way of diluting airborne pathogens. it is stated that: "there is good evidence that demonstrates room occupants are more at risk of catching an illness in a poorly ventilated room than in a well-ventilated room." besides this, new evidence that has been found shows high rates of infection in poorly ventilated spaces [14] . since sars-cov-2 has spread around the world at an unprecedented pace, infecting millions of people, and further aerosol driven infections are highly likely to emerge, ventilation plays a key role in efforts to limit the transmission rate of this and other diseases. this paper will discuss the factors affecting air particle properties in-terms of flow dynamics and critically analyse current ventilation strategies and mechanisms and identify areas for improvement in the search for the reduction of indoor infections. thoughtful modifications to the built environment -to how schools, offices or health-care facilities are designed, operated and maintained -could help curb the spread of infectious disease, reducing the toll of future outbreaks as well as the current covid-19 pandemic. this section will review the current state-of-the-art covering characteristics of respiratory particles, the ability of viruses to spread as well as the mechanisms for airborne transmission and how current ventilation strategies can affect the risk of transmission. respiratory particles are formed during any respiratory activity such as coughing, sneezing, talking and breathing. once the particles are released into the surroundings, the mechanisms in-which they flow and settle depend on the fluid dynamics of the particles and the conditions in the vicinity. fluid dynamics can characterise the evaporation rate of the particles which allows the determination of the prevalence of small droplets and nuclei droplet transport [5] . covid-19 belongs to the betacovs pathogen group and has an approximate diameter of 60-140 nm. the shape of the virus can be spherical or ellipsoidal [15] . particle trajectories depend primarily on their size and the balance of various forces acting on the particle in the air. gravitational and aerodynamic forces are the two primary forces acting on such particles, where the latter force dictates the flow behaviour of the particle. figure 1 shows the trajectories for particles of various sizes ranging from 0.01 µm to 100 µm [8] . figure 1 : trajectories of particles with various sizes [8] . stokes law explains the frictional force relation exerted on spherical objects with very small reynolds numbers in viscous fluid. to help explain the trajectories of air particles, the aerodynamic drag coefficient (cd), shown in equation 1 of a spherical particle relative to reynolds number, shown in equation 2, is not constant. reynolds number is a ratio between inertial and viscous forces that originate from interactions between a body and a fluid. the equation for reynolds number is shown below. where fd is the aerodynamic drag force, and a is the frontal area. using reynolds equation, for natural ventilation systems with air velocity of 0.3 m/s and a particle size of 140 nm, the reynolds number is calculated at 0.003. this shows that for such air flow environment, the flow is laminar whereby the viscous forces prevail. therefore, drag coefficient for viscous non-separated flow around a sphere can be defined by equation 3. however, this equation implies that drag force is proportional to the diameter which is not entirely accurate. the resistance coefficient may decrease with increasing diameter, but the drag force increases linearly with the diameter. however, since the gravitational force increases with the mass, it increases with diameter cubed, thus, more rapidly than the drag force as the diameter increases. therefore, larger particles have the tendency to settle [16] . this phenomenon helps to explain why smaller particles are more likely to be airborne. the drag coefficient for a sphere as a function of reynolds number can be plotted to show the influence of changing flow regime on the drag coefficient. this is shown in figure 2 , whereby a sphere exhibits a reduction in drag coefficient until the flow regime becomes turbulent causing a sudden dip. furthermore, when the boundary layer on the leading surface becomes turbulent, the separation occurs farther round the sphere and the drag coefficient decreases. a rough surface, such as on a golf ball, promotes an earlier transition to turbulence. the numbers on figure 2 refer to various flow regimes and their corresponding changes in the drag coefficient. flow regime 2 on the figure refers to stokes flow and steady separated flow, whereby the reynolds number is less than 1 which is typical for fluid velocities are very slow and the viscosities are very high. flow regime 3 on the figure refers to separated, unsteady flow, whereby a laminar flow boundary is formed upstream of the separation and producing vortex street. flow regime 4 refers to separated unsteady flow with a laminar boundary layer at the upstream side and chaotic turbulent wake downstream of the sphere. regime 5 refers to a turbulent boundary layer [16] . a graph of aerodynamic drag coefficient against reynolds number [16] . various parameters affect the transmission of droplet borne infections, including density, initial velocity and the size distribution of the droplets that are released during respiratory activities, as well as indoor air velocity and direction. many research studies have been carried out to measure these characteristics [17] . sneezing is the respiratory activity that ejects the most droplets, in the range of 10 4 or more. the droplets from sneezing have initial velocities in the range of 20 m/s. other respiratory activities release droplets at a significantly lower density and lower initial velocities. table 1 shows the droplet densities and velocities for the common respiratory activities. the terminal velocity at which any spherical particle settles due to gravity in a fluid can be explained by stokes' law for fine particle size and newton's law for coarse particles. both equations have been shown below. where = gravitational acceleration = density of solid and fluid respectively d = particle diameter = drag coefficient μ = fluid viscosity the terminal velocity equations shown above have been used to generate graphical representations of the expected particle speeds at various conditions as shown below in figure 3 . since covid-19 has an approximate diameter of 60-140 nm [15] , stokes' law applies for ventilation in buildings whereby the air flow exhibits a laminar behaviour. figure 3 shows that at very small diameter particles of less than 0.1 µm, the terminal velocity is almost negligible which further amplifies the fact that if covid-19 was proven to be airborne then the virus and its potent materials could be airborne for long durations especially if enclosed environments are not ventilated adequately. a mathematical model by c.p cummins et al. shows that particles with a diameter smaller than 70 µm (stoke's number ≤ 8.5 × 10 −5 ) are almost unaffected by the gravity and air extraction is very efficient at removing these fine particles [19] . this is explained by the major impact of the drag forces on the particle's movement for this diameter. the settling velocity calculated by stokes' law (equation 3) is proportional with the diameter squared. particle terminal velocities remain elusive due to a vast number of factors, such as droplet diameter, droplet density, contributing to this phenomenon and primarily due to the difficulty in making measurements of such parameters [18, 20, 21 ]. pathogen transmission can occur through different routes: direct contact, indirect contact, droplet borne or airborne such as shown in figure 4 [22] [23] [24] . the direct contact route covers any contact between a contagious person and a susceptible person: touching, kissing, sexual contact, contact with skin lesions or oral secretion. this route is well documented and outside the scope for this paper. in the indirect contact transmission mode, the contagious person touches or expels contaminated droplets containing infectious organisms which settle on an inanimate object, such as a doorknob or an elevator button, called "fomite". the person being infected touches this fomite and then an area where the pathogen can enter the body such as the eyes, nose, or mouth [7] . droplet transmission can occur when infective large droplets expelled from a contagious person reach an uninfected person. airborne transmission occurs when very small particles (5-10 µm in diameter) or small droplets evaporating to a small enough size [26] , are expelled by coughing, sneezing, speaking, or breathing. these droplets are small enough to remain airborne for long periods of time (up to several hours), until they are inhaled by or land on the uninfected person. airborne transmission is not yet widely accepted for various transmissible respiratory diseases. in the case of sars-cov-2, the world health organisation only recognizes the risk for airborne transmission under certain medical procedures producing large amounts of infective respiratory particles [22, 23, [27] [28] [29] . there is now growing pressure on the who from the scientific community to relax the dogmatic and outdated division between aerosols and small droplets and acknowledge the mounting evidence for the indoor spreading of the covid-19 infection through the air [30] . in the case of sars-cov-1 and mers-cov, retrospection on the different outbreaks and multiple studies make a strong case for the route as an opportunistic transmission, meaning that the virus will transmit preferably through other routes but can potentially infect by means of respiratory particles when conditions are met. another factor explaining the elusive validation of airborne transmission is the dilution of small particles after they are emitted. indeed, people standing farther away from a contagious emitter see an exponentially decreasing concentration of droplet nuclei. the potential transmission over larger distances are by nature more difficult to identify especially in the context of an outbreak or a pandemic when the sources are multiple. furthermore, when the transmission happens close to an identified source, the transmission is indiscernible from that due to droplets or indirect transmission [27, 29] . in order for viruses to be transmitted through the airborne route, some conditions must be satisfied: the virus must be able to remain viable outside of the host, withstand the external conditions and be transported to a susceptible area of a new host. the effect of evaporation, light, humidity and temperature on the concentration and virality (capacity to infect and reproduce) of the pathogen need to be further researched to make conclusions on the threat level of the airborne route [31] . there are already multiple pathogens for which the airborne route is acknowledged. such viruses including adenovirus, influenza, measles, meningococcal disease, mumps, pertussis, parvovirus b19, respiratory syncitial virus, rubella, tuberculosis and varicella, can spread by droplet nuclei [32] . measles and tuberculosis for example are proven to be preferentially airborne transmitted diseases [29] . but the fact that these diseases have been controlled with widely available drugs and vaccines resulted in a decrease in research effort into airborne transmission mechanisms. recent sars-cov-1 and mers-cov outbreak have given a new impetus to research on this subject. indeed, sars-cov-1 is thought to be transmissible by direct, indirect, and droplet contact, the amoy garden case identifies a strong possibility of airborne transmission. during the outbreak, the virus spread from a faulty dried-out bathroom drainage system and rose to a extraction fan, then was carried by the wind into the adjacent building infecting several occupants [7, 16, 25, 28, 31, 33] . ribonucleic acid, rna, and even viable viruses have been detected in aerosols in healthcare facilities for some respiratory viruses such as seasonal and avian influenzas virus, mers-cov and respiratory syncytial virus [34] . in the case of mers-cov, samples taken in hospitals and isolation wards in south korea confirmed the airborne transmission. some patients of the same ward were infected, even though they were standing more than two meters away from the source. air samples and surrounding areas, including regularly disinfected accessible and inaccessible surfaces, were all contaminated by mers-cov [35] . this experimental data challenges the previously recognized transmission routes, acknowledging the high possibility of airborne transmission as an opportunistic route at close range and even long range when the conditions were favourable and concentrations at the source were high. sars-cov-2 shares the same modes of transmission as the sars cov-1 and, although the viability and virality of an air sample has not been proven at the time of writing, it cannot be ruled out. the airborne route, being opportunistic [25] , is by its nature difficult to interpret. air samples take time before being tested after which the concentration might be too low, through dilution, to establish with confidence the presence of viable virus on droplet nuclei. rna detection is also not usually enough to interpret the risk of airborne transmission [34] . a number of studies indicate airborne or droplet borne transmission [14] , and to the authors' knowledge, there is no study yet demonstrating the lack of infection in a situation where only airborne transmission is permitted (and with particles in high concentration). this would be the only definitive way to disprove the mode of transmission [36] . recent superspreading events also support the argument for airborne transmission. during a choir rehearsal in mount vernon (washington), although precautionary care was taken to suppress direct contacts and keep distance between the singers, 53 out of the 61 participants caught the disease [28] and at least two people were reported to have died [37] . the aerosol stability of sars-cov-2 was recently tested in laboratory conditions. a three-jet collison nebulizer created contaminated aerosols (< 5µm) fed into a goldberg drum. in this environment, the sars-cov-2 remained viable with a half-life between 1.1 and 1.2 hours (95% credible interval 0.64 to 2.64h) as shown in figure 5 . the researchers compared the results with sars-cov-1 and found similar half-life results (95% credible interval 0.78 to 2.43h). the reduction in infectious concentration (titer) during the 3-hour long tests was from 10 3.5 to 10 2.7 tcid50 (fifty-percent tissue culture infective dose) per litre of air for sars-cov-2. this reduction was similar to that observed with sars-cov-1, from 10 4.3 to 10 3.5 tcid50 per litre of air [27] . in order to better understand how to combat airborne transmission, one must understand the relation between the particle emission and deposition mechanisms. droplets can be generated from different places in the respiratory tract of the infected person with various resulting diameters. once deposited on the uninfected individual they then infect the conjunctiva or mucous membranes in the upper respiratory tract of the new host [13, 26, 38] . small particles can be generated during speech in the alveoli of the lungs and vocal cord vibration by a fluid film burst mechanism [7, 39] . it was reported that vocalization emits 10 times more particles than breathing, and some speech super-emitters can (for reasons unclear yet) expel 10 times more particles than average [6] . this could be an explanation to the mount vernon choir outbreak: the higher concentration of infected particles added to the need for extra deep breathing required for singing facilitates airborne transmission. coughing and sneezing also generate large numbers of particles, the majority of which are inhalable (< 100μm in size): 78.6-96.0% for coughing and 98.9% for sneezing. furthermore, between 7.1-46.7% of cough expelled particles and 18.8% of particles produced by sneezing were under 4μm in diameter [38] . these smaller particles penetrate deeper and can deposit further in the respiratory tract. generally, particles above 10 µm do not reach the alveoli whereas particles above 20 µm deposit in the upper respiratory tract as shown in figure 6 [5, 13, 26, 28, 34, 38] . [29] . transmission that occurs in the lower respiratory tract, shown in figure 6 due to smaller particles potentially leads to aggravated symptoms and a higher mortality rate, whereas deposition in the upper respiratory track by larger aerosols necessitates a larger number of viruses for the host to develop symptoms [29] . this is due to the fact that the nasal and tracheobronchial regions have an additional defence system. the nasal tracts are covered by a mucus layer that entraps deposited particulates. the continuous movement of cilia pushes the captive infected particles up to the gastrointestinal track where they cannot infect the host [5, 38] . research studies have shown that small particles still present a substantial risk of infection [26] , and it was reported that for some respiratory diseases, a single virus can cause illness. in the case of sars-cov-2, a minimum required viral load has not yet been confirmed [5, 7, 29] . once the virus finds a susceptible cell, it can infect individuals through binding its pike proteins to the cell wall then uses the cell to replicate before bursting it. thereafter, it releases more viruses that can either contaminate other cells, be destroyed by the immune system or be expelled from the body and potentially transmit to a new host [23] . studies have shown that that the ensuing incubation period is on average 5.1 days, but can range from 2 to 10 days [23] . the virus remains detectable for a median of 20 days [40, 41] . a critical specificity of sars-cov-2 is the serial interval (or the time lapse) between an infection of a host and the transmission to a susceptible uninfected person. an average of 5.8 days, with a 95% credible interval between 4.8 and 6.8 days, and median of 5.2 days, with credible interval between 4.1 and 6.4 days, were reported [41] . the small-time delay and possible overlap between the end of the incubation period and the secondary infection shows that pre-symptomatic transmission is very likely. it is believed that the infectiousness starts 2.5 days before the first symptoms of the disease and peaks when the symptoms are starting [5, 41] . this would be the major cause of the rapid spread of the pandemic. the speed of the spread is represented by the basic reproduction, ro, number which is the average number of susceptible persons infected by a single host [24] . for sars-cov-2 ro is estimated to range between 1.4 to 6.49 (mean, 3.23; median, 2.79) [23] . furthermore, the ro is rapidly evolving and other studies have found values of ro between 1 and 4 before intervention to limit the spread [42] . the basic reproduction number corresponding to pre-symptomatic transmissions alone is estimated to be 0.9, with 95% credible interval between 0.2 and 1.1. a ro value superior to 1 means the virus will spread exponentially, indicating these transmissions are almost sufficient to sustain the pandemic [24] . at the beginning of the wuhan outbreak, the contribution of pre-symptomatic cases accounted for 46% of all infections, with 10% for asymptomatic cases, and it is now widely accepted that seemingly healthy people can spread the virus, though uncertainty remains over how much they have contributed to the pandemic. though estimates vary, models using data from hong kong, singapore and china suggest that 30 to 60 percent of spreading occurs when people have no symptoms [24, 41, 43] . as the body starts to build antibodies against the virus, the concentration begins to decrease, and the infectiousness of the disease declines significantly after 10 days [24] . when a significant portion of the population stops being susceptible to the virus, the ro falls below 1 and the number of new infections drops below the sustaining rate. this can be achieved through vaccination or by building immunity after recovering from the disease -thus the state of herd immunity may be achieved [24] . although mutation from the virus and decay of the immune system memory could still pose a challenge to achieving this goal. in order to supress or slow the progression of the pandemic, efforts must be made to reduce ro. precautionary measures must consider the entire population since pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmissions are a critical factor in the spread of sars-cov-2. if the virus can spread from seemingly healthy carriers or people who had not yet developed symptoms, the publicawareness campaigns, airport screening and 'stay-home-if-you're sick' policies might not stop it. more targeted measures are required including a considered re-design of indoor environments, especially aspects handling the air buildings' ventilation systems [44] . both the airborne and or droplet borne routes cannot be ignored. pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic hosts do not cough or sneeze extensively [5, 7, 40] . when doctors in wuhan, china, where the new virus first emerged, studied 138 early cases, they concluded that 41 percent of patients had most likely contracted the disease in the hospital [40] . therefore, the hypothesis stating that infection through small particles plays a more important role in the transmission along with the direct and indirect (fomites) routes can be used. thus, ventilation plays an important role in reducing the risk of transmission through dilution and removal of the infected particles within the indoor environment [25] . preparedness to fight airborne disease is essential and sars-cov-2 offers the chance to research and apply mitigating ventilation solutions which could prove life-saving now and in the future when another virulent and deadly pandemic arises [29] . ashrae standard 62.1:2019 defines acceptable indoor air quality as "air in which there are no known contaminants at harmful concentrations, as determined by cognizant authorities, and with which a substantial majority (80% or more) of the people exposed do not express dissatisfaction". [45] if airborne infectious particles are to be counted as harmful even in small concentrations, as explained in the previous section, either the amount of fresh air supplied to a room needs to be dramatically increased or the ventilation strategy needs to be reconsidered to protect the occupants. this paper focuses on high occupancy buildings such as schools or office spaces where the occupants are static most of the time. current standards already have predetermined values to meet the acceptable indoor air quality. for example, the ashrae standards dictate a minimum ventilation rate of 5l/s per person or 0.9 l/s.m 2 in educational facilities. for office buildings, the minimum values are 2.5l/s per person or 0.06 l/s.m 2 [45] . having said that, due to variability in ventilation methodologies, similar ventilation rates may translate to significantly different indoor transmission outcomes. fresh air can be provided in a number of ways, relying on many different technologies and having different extraction, dilution and air distribution effectiveness. the british standards bs en 16798-3:2017 defines 4 basic types of ventilation systems: [44] . system type fan assisted air volume flow in only one direction. this system is balanced by air transfer devices within the building envelope. fan assisted system operates in supply and exhaust directions. bidirectional ventilation system natural ventilation relies on natural driving forces. natural ventilation system hybrid systems rely on natural and mechanical mechanisms. any combination of the ventilation mechanisms can be used depending on the situation. several factors play a role after a ventilation solution is selected that affect the final system performance and indoor air quality. the poor initial design of a selected ventilation solution could be due to various reasons such as error in sizing, reduced performance due to lack of maintenance, lack of operator knowledge or the intentional reduced use in order to save energy or reduce noise and all can be detrimental to the occupants' health. several studies have demonstrated that in classrooms, the ventilation rates have often failed to reach the minimum standard required. the peak co 2 concentration, which can be used as an indicator of the ventilation rate in occupied spaces, often exceeded the recommended levels. in a study, the reported co 2 measurements in several thousand classrooms has shown that all classroom averages exceeded 1000 ppm (0.1%) which is an indicator of a ventilation rate lower than 7l/s/person at default occupancy. in many instances, the average co 2 levels were above 2000 ppm with peak concentrations between 3000 and 6000 ppm [46] . this discrepancy between the building standards and reality demonstrated the need for a thorough reconsideration of ventilation design and ventilation systems specified in high occupancy buildings well before the impact of coronavirus. in the light of sars-cov-2 pandemic there is an even more desperate need to address the ventilation design and effectiveness. improved ventilation has been noted to deliver a positive health impact with a noticeable reduction in illnesses and absences. in particular, reduced respiratory health effects, such as mucosal and allergy symptoms are significantly reduced with increased ventilation rates [46] . a study based on californian schools demonstrated that an increase in the ventilation rate by 1l/s/person resulted in a 1.6% reduction in illness related absences [47] . poor ventilation has also been linked to many adverse health effects: transmission of infectious diseases, acute respiratory symptoms and impaired cognition performance [48] [49] [50] . it expresses the dilution of the said pollutant as a function of the ventilation rate effectiveness which can be engineered to suit the room, occupant type, and the risk at hand. in the case of infected particles, the recommendations from rehva, the federation of european heating, ventilation and air conditioning associations, are to supply as much outside air as possible. according to rehva, mechanical ventilation should be activated more often (24/7 when possible with lower rates during quiet times) and at least to start ventilating before and after busy hours while the density of occupancy needs to be decreased when possible this will increase the distance between people and lower the pollutant emission rate. with or without mechanical ventilation, window airing should be used to boost the air exchange rate. toilet windows on the other hand need to remain closed and mechanical extraction activated at all times to create negative pressure and prevent contaminated particles from entering other parts of the building though doors or by an unforeseen route through nearby open windows [25] . prior to covid-19, densely packed open-plan offices were already suspected of making employees sick [52] . viruses and other pathogens are not the typical pollutants and even small and temporary exposure has been proven to lead to infections. studies of viral infections spread through indoor spaces document clearly that mechanically induced, mixing airflow can pose a greater risk of infection spread as it pushes turbulent air deep into rooms, possibly picking up infected droplets along the way [53] . further research by the university of oregon demonstrated how air conditioning or hybrid ventilation can spread the pathogens much farther than 6 feet, even when the host is positioned a long distance from the fan driven system [53, 54] . it appears that it is not just the rate of supply of fresh air that needs to be considered but also the air flow dynamics and air distribution pathways through occupied spaces that urgently need review, which include the type of airflow, velocity, its turbulence and its direction. keeping indoor environments virus-free plays a key part in reducing or slowing the transmission of various airborne infections. since viruses have an approximate diameter of 150 nm, they can be easily carried by aerosol droplets in the air and linger afloat for many minutes and sometimes hours. an inappropriate or inadequate ventilation strategy can dramatically increase the risk of disease transmission. a research study conducted by a team of scientists at the defence science and technology laboratory on the aerosol survival of sars-cov-2 in artificial saliva and tissue culture media and high humidity found that covid-19 could be transmitted via airborne droplets in addition to physical contact with droplets deposited onto surfaces [55] . the study used the sars-cov-2 england variant which was suspended in the air using tissue culture media at medium and high relative humidity, 40-60% and 68-88%. the outcome of the study has shown that the virus was still detectable after 90 minutes. taking the above-mentioned publications into account, ventilation and comfort strategies have been categorised by airflow characteristics and their potential impact on pathogen spread through occupied spaces in the next section. considering the dynamics of droplet and aerosol spread indoors, various ventilation and air conditioning strategies can be grouped into three main categories:  recirculating ventilation (frequently called mixing or hybrid ventilation) and conditioning systems that either move the indoor air around (typical split ac or vrf system or even a ceiling fan) or mix indoor air with outdoor air before pumping it into the room (such as hybrid or 'heat recycling' ventilation systems that have been lately installed in many schools). this ventilation method generally produces turbulent air flows with stale air either partly or fully recirculated back into the affected rooms.  mixing ventilation systems that are designed to distribute fresh air throughout the occupied space ensuring all occupants experience similar air quality, with air supplied through specific ventilation outlets or diffusers. they are predominantly mechanical systems such as large, centralised air handling units (ahu) or smaller, localised mechanical ventilation systems with heat recovery (mvhr). this ventilation method generally produces turbulent, mixing air flows within rooms.  displacement ventilation systems that remove contaminated indoor air and supply fresh outside air in a predominantly even, buoyancy assisted fashion, effectively displacing it with no or little disruption. they are primarily passive systems such as natural ventilation cowls, façade louvres or automatically opening windows. this ventilation method generally produces a laminar airflow within rooms (outside of very windy conditions). typical ventilation measures are listed and grouped in the table below, complete with a brief description: building integrated measures designed to displace stale air and supply fresh air using buoyancy including elements such as windows, passive stacks or solar chimneys. natural ventilation systems natural ventilation products or systems utilising buoyancy in their operation including roof cowls, wall mounted iaq responsive louvres or iaq controlled window openers. the recirculating approach has been popular choice for new schools in recent years for both ventilation and comfort provision, mainly due to its low capital cost and simplicity. some recirculating systems are used for ventilation with the recirculated stale air mixed with fresh, outside air, in order to increase the temperature of the air supplied to the classroom, necessary to reduce discomfort in absence of a heat exchanger. the diagram, shown in figure 7 , illustrates the concept of hybrid ventilation: the mixed, partly recirculated, air is fan driven in such a way as to reach far into the classroom up to 8m from the system and to supply enough fresh air, mixed with stale air for comfort, to maintain co 2 levels below an average of 1000ppm. as this requires fresh air flows rate in a range of 150 l/s, when combined with stale air it may reach a volume flow rate of 300 l/s or higher which, considering the small size of the air diffusers, can generate substantial air velocities in occupied spaces -leading to high air turbulence. according to a recent study and modelling conducted by the university of oregon, this type of airflow has the potential for high spread of coronavirus infected droplets within densely occupied spaces, even with just one person exhaling the virus droplets [53, 54] . apart from the recirculation itself, the transmission appears to be facilitated by the type and velocity of turbulent airflow designed to reach deep into the occupied space as shown in figure 8 . this covers most of the air conditioning systems used commercially with the mode of operation similar to the hybrid ventilation systems mentioned above with the exception of containing no fresh air in its supply path -all is constantly recirculated. air is pulled into the system from the room, conditioned, either cooled or heated, and then supplied back into the room at high enough velocity to reach to the end of the occupied space. since the systems are designed to ensure that conditioned air gets to every area of the room, providing comfort, the pathogens picked up by the circulating air can travel much further than 2m [53, 54, 58] . a typical ac airflow can be illustrated by the computational fluid dynamics picture in figure 9 : ceiling fan is another recirculating comfort system and is designed to either reduce air stratification in the room, bringing the warm air down from the ceiling, or to introduce enough air movement to cool the occupants through wind chill effect. both actions are designed to improve comfort while displacing the need for more power-hungry ac or excess space heating. as it can be seen in the cfd snapshot in figure 10 , ceiling fans also ensure that air within the room is fully mixed. as much as there can be various iterations of the above approach, the unifying factor is that ceiling fans continuously mix air within spaces where they serve, such as classrooms, lecture theatres or offices. consequently, any contaminated droplets and aerosols sneezed, coughed or exhaled can travel significant distances within the rooms and reach occupants who are much farther away from the infected host than 2 metres [59] . the research carried out by jaakkola et al. [61] shows the importance of the introduction of fresh air into any occupied room, with recirculation of the air posing a significant risk with many of the air borne diseases not just being carried from person to person by the airflow but also entering the ventilation system itself, possibly being trapped in the air filter. however, many of the pathogens may escape filters causing further infections and droplets can be carried for long distances across spaces by fan induced turbulent airflow without having to enter the recirculating system. since the vast majority of air conditioners in high occupancy buildings utilise air recirculation, it raises the question over their safety and indicates the need for further research into such comfort, ventilation and indoor air quality provision so that the occupant safety can be improved, especially in the light of the covid-19 pandemic [61] . air handling units are generally located in the basement or lower floors of a building such as office blocks (us) or on top of the building (uk). ahus are tasked to supply hundreds of m 3 of air per second across the whole building and generally dehumidify, heat and cool the incoming fresh air as required. the air is supplied through floor or ceiling grills generating positive pressure within the building, it then moves across the ventilated space mixing with existing, stale air along the way and is exhausted through various building fabric openings, exhaust ducts or atria created for that purpose as shown in figure 11 . in some cases, buildings can utilise a hybrid solution combining both natural ventilation principles (even natural free cooling) and mechanical assistance. figure 11 : typical ahu ventilation arrangement with supply ducts located in ceiling voids [62] . a cfd study of a simplified room, with one simulated occupant, using a positive pressure mixing ventilation system can be seen in figure 12 . however, as the fresh air is supplied, a significant degree of mixing will occur within the occupied space. the general design of ahu ductwork, as well as deep floor plan offices exacerbate the fan induced mixing throughout occupied spaces leading to increased risk of long-distance droplet movement. these balanced ventilation systems are generally localised and mounted within the ceiling void of the room or classroom they serve, extracting air from the occupied space, passing it through the air to air heat exchanger to recover the heat and warm up the incoming fresh air, as shown in figure 13 . as much as both air flows are channelled through the same box, there is generally no mixing between the two paths. these systems allow for higher thermal efficiencies due to heat recovery but with an electrical penalty of two fans running constantly. a typical classroom mvhr ventilation arrangement can be seen in figure 14 constructed through simulation software, whereby an air plume generated by supply airflow in façade mounted mvhr system. mvhr systems have been documented to deliver adequate indoor air quality as well as expected comfort levels. their design is to deliver fresh, tempered air to every area of the ventilated space, as it can be seen on a cfd of the façade mounded mvhr below, which, in case of the risk of infection, appears to have similar airflow flow characteristics as recirculating ventilation modelled by the university of oregon. more turbulent air flow at higher velocity is much more likely to mix with existing air and carry larger droplets further into the room, possibly spreading virus contaminated droplets around the room and leading to a higher risk of infection spread. as this is specific to air delivery design rather than the system characteristics, it may be possible to reduce the risk of infection by a careful redesign of the ductwork, its size as well as inlet and outlet location and sizing. it may also be theoretically possible to use mvhr as displacement ventilation in some cases if a complete change of installation design is possible. as much as this is an important area for further research, specific ventilation ductwork design or ventilation design guidance are outside the scope of this paper. piv is very similar in its airflow characteristics to positive pressure air handling units described beforehand with the main difference being the local placement of the fan powered unit or system. the unit supplies the air into an occupied area with enough velocity to evenly distribute it throughout the space. due to its design, it has similar air mixing characteristics as ahus. although mechanical ventilation usually comes with better controllability, it can increase both capital and operating costs which are some of the drawbacks. the need for higher maintenance and the loss of performance when not effectively managed also need to be factored in. it was demonstrated that the severity of symptoms associated with sick building syndromes can be linked with the cleanness of the air filters and hvac system. the occupants' symptoms were recorded by questionnaire before and after cleaning a part of the hvac system and changing the filters. in the renovated section, the severity of the symptoms decreased while they remained identical in the untouched section. when using dirty filters, which is often the case in many high occupancy buildings equipped with such mechanical ventilation, the emissions from the used filters were found to increase with the outdoor airflow rate. increasing the ventilation did not improved the air quality, while raising the operation costs [66] . the main difference between mixing and displacement ventilation can be seen in figure 15 . as much as the risk of recirculation is significantly lower or negligible within the ductwork, virus contaminated droplets can still be carried for long distances across occupied spaces by fan induced turbulent airflow. it may be theoretically possible, however, to design the air distribution ductwork and room diffusers in such a way as to reduce in-room mixing and thus the risk of airflow induced infection spread. furthermore, there is even a possibility of adapting existing building services with covid-19 specific office floor alterations. further research into the possible development of such comfort, ventilation and indoor air quality provision is urgently needed so that designers, engineers and facilities managers can ensure occupant safety, especially in the light of the covid-19 pandemic. displacement ventilation systems can be broadly divided into mechanical and natural. mechanical displacement systems can service the entire building, often using a simplified version of air handling units with centralised extract systems or with specific rooms, office floors or classrooms using localised extract systems. continuous extract ventilation is more frequently used in domestic buildings and is currently used predominantly in bathroom areas in high occupancy buildings. natural displacement ventilation approaches can include whole building integrated systems, room specific systems, ventilation products, such as passive ventilation cowls or specific wall integrated louvres. they can also rely on windows, either automated or manually operated, in which case they may be placed at the opposing ends of the room and at different heights with the exhaust located at a high level close to the ceiling, providing maximum displacement ventilation benefit. brief examples of each approach are listed below: conventionally, the most economical way to provide ventilation was to rely on natural forces acting on air, taking advantage of atmospheric pressure differentials such as wind pressure moving air sideways or making use of the buoyancy of warmer air moving upwards. figure the warmed stale air floats to the exhaust opening faster while drawing air from all connected floors, increasing the ventilation rate [67] . even though natural ventilation methods, including operable windows that are either manual or automatic, are one of the simplest methods of providing ventilation they frequently suffered the most from drawbacks such as bad design and implementation. main design issues included calculating full window area as an opening, which in reality is often less than 1/10 th of the window, locating windows in the wrong area or at the wrong height. as much as varied height cross ventilation can be effective, a row of short windows at mid height will generate almost no air movement, no solar shading and window related overheating, cold draughts, noise, incompatibility with interiors such as blinds or with the user behaviour. the study by the university of oregon [54, 58] observed that natural ventilation with a plentiful supply of fresh air dilutes and removes contaminated air much more effectively than fan driven, recirculated air movement, significantly reducing the risk of infection, as shown in figure 17 . however, ventilation design that requires the stale air to move across the entire floor plan, or through common areas such as hallways and staircases before being exhausted from the building, is understandably more likely to spread infection than when the stale air is exhausted at the source, directly to the outside. considering the research conducted so far, if designed and implemented appropriately, natural ventilation measures, or a combination of localised mechanical exhaust and large cross section natural inlets, can provide an adequate displacement ventilation solution, significantly reducing the risk of infection. [68] . a frequently quoted drawback of natural ventilation measures is the perceived lack of control and dependence on external factors such as wind speed and air temperature to provide fresh air. moreover, the need to reduce the internal airflow resistance and maintain large openings and air pathways in large, building-integrated natural solutions reduces the possibilities for noise dampening or provision of adequate temperature management. in noisy, hot or cold environments, this ventilation strategy is often rejected in favour of mechanical ventilation solutions which are simpler to design and do not require familiarity with building physics. as opposed to building integrated ventilation methods or measures such as opening windows, the natural ventilation systems are products that can include roof mounted cowls and/or façade integrated elements. they can be designed or sized specifically for the application, be it a classroom or a sports hall. the systems rely on either the roof cowls to both supply fresh and extract stale air or on façade elements entirely, in which case, they would be placed at the top and bottom of each space to maximise the stack effect. some natural ventilation products can include heat recovery or comfort cooling. most of these systems can ensure displacement ventilation with little contaminated air mixing, as long as used with appropriate internal air dividers, as illustrated in figure 18 . various examples are listed below: roof mounted natural ventilation systems: these have been available for many decades and successfully used in schools and other low-rise high occupancy buildings. their use has declined in recent years due to comparatively higher capital costs than simple mixing systems and the lack of a heat recovery function, although overall energy consumption is reduced due to the lack of fans and the associated electricity use and heat recovery systems have recently become available. these systems are available from several uk manufacturers. roof mounted natural ventilation systems with heat recovery: these are relatively new additions to the natural ventilation product range, even though the addition of heat recovery to natural ventilation has been researched considerably with several academic publications considering heat transfer with heat pipes or thermal wheels in order to improve natural ventilation whilst saving energy. their operation is broadly similar to the standard roof cowl systems in terms of air movement, and can also include façade integrated ventilation for boost, with the addition of heat recovery capability which reduces ventilation related heat loss, further increasing energy efficiency. an example of this mechanism is shown in figure 19 : ventive windhive (natural ventilation with heat recovery) systems. figure 19 . numerous academic papers covered the use of natural ventilation systems, both with and without heat recovery, and demonstrated that, when appropriately sized and designed, they work very effectively [69] [70] [71] . façade mounted natural ventilation systems, these could be stand alone or have additional heating: these are generally automatically actuated façade openings with a room matching grille on the inside and a weather louvre on the outside, located at both high and low level in the room. depending on co 2 concentrations, one or both dampers would open automatically to provide the required, buoyancy driven airflow. in some cases, these systems may include a heating coil, to reduce the cold drafts that could be generated during winter in the absence of a heat recovery function. if required, they can also include a bank of acoustic attenuators to reduce external noise transfer to the indoors as shown in figure 20 . intelligent façade mounted systems with heat pump: latest technology developments include the addition of a heat pump to façade mounted natural ventilation systems to provide both the heat recovery feature. this feature is implemented by transferring heat from the exhaust vent to the supply vent with the help from a low power compressor as well as heat pump driven summer cooling as shown in figure 21 . the general operation is the same as for the twin façade system noted above -fresh air is supplied at low level with the exhaust mounted at high level. however, unlike the above, the incoming air is tempered to improve occupant comfort using the exhausted air energyeither warmed in winter or cooled in the summer. the usual electrical consumption of the compressor is, in part, offset by the reduced electrical consumption due to the absence of fans. the other potential benefit of the system is that the summer cooling tends to boost natural ventilation by heating the exhaust air above the ambient temperature enabling the natural ventilation equipment to maintain adequate air flows all year round. a school in grong in norway implemented hybrid bidirectional ventilation, shown in figure 22 , for the provision of the required indoor air quality based on a balance between supply and exhaust air. underground ducts connect the basement of the building to the wind tower. the mechanism in which this ventilation strategy works relies on air entering the tower further down the school field either naturally or using a fan, depending on the available buoyancy. the air is then driven under the school through a duct entering the rooms through the lower level then rising due to buoyancy, leaving the building through the chimney-like stack. the ventilation rate for each room is controlled by the degree of opening of the exhaust damper and the optional extraction fan. this type of system is simple mechanically, and offers fresh air either naturally, during winter, or using fans when buoyancy is too weak to drive the airflow, with compressor driven heat recovery that utilises a centralised concept for ventilation [72] . [72] . a study in a school in new-zealand highlights the positive effects of a better ventilation strategy on airborne particles. two adjacent classrooms were monitored and compared, one with continuous mechanical extraction ventilation solutions and the other where the occupants were relied on to open windows. the levels of inorganic airborne particles were monitored to show how they were removed from the breathing space. the first room was equipped with a unidirectional ventilation system consisting of a fan assisted solar roof prototype with a double-layer roof made of a polycarbonate layer over a steel corrugated north-facing roof, where outdoor air was passed between the two layers, while the other classroom had no specific ventilation system with manually operable windows as the only means of ventilation. the goal of the study was to assess the air quality and the effect of ventilation on reducing respiratory and cardiovascular diseases associated with poor air quality. air samples were measured to identify the number of inorganic particles sizing under 10 μm. the exhaled airborne particle concentration and dilution provided by the ventilation system follow the same trend, since, at this size, aerodynamic forces prevail over gravitational forces as explained in section 2.1. the ventilated system provided 32.3 l/s of tempered outside air, or approximately 0.6 air change per hour, for a classroom volume of 200 m 3 . the unidirectional ventilation system reduced the average co 2 concentrations by 27 %, from 1345 ppm to 980ppm, and average moisture content by 12%, from 9.08 g of water per kg of dry air to 7.98 g of water per kg of dry air. the actively ventilated classroom had on average a 66% lower concentration of airborne particles sizing under 10 μm than the unventilated classroom as shown in figure 23 [73] . [73] . displacement ventilation systems, such as natural ventilation, naturally assisted extraction ventilation and continuous mechanical extraction ventilation, appear to be the most promising ventilation solution in terms of reducing the spread of viruses and other pathogens indoors this is mainly due to the lower air flow velocity, non-turbulent air flow characteristics and a much lower likelihood of air mixing occurring within the ventilated spaces. this observation is investigated further using computational fluid dynamics in the next section. two of the above listed displacement ventilation systems have been selected for further analysis of room specific airflow dynamics and its potential impact on exhaled droplet and pathogen distribution through occupied spaces to assess their impact on the potential spread of infection: 1) roof mounted natural ventilation with heat recovery and 2) the façade mounted naturally intelligent ventilation system with heat pump. due to their similarity to each group of the natural ventilation systems mentioned above, we consider the results of the cfd modelling to be representative across the roof mounted and façade natural ventilation range. both of the selected systems appear thermally and physically well designed to be able to passively ventilate occupied spaces whilst recovering heat through either passive or active methods, using wind speed, wind pressure and air buoyancy to drive the air flow. under normal circumstances, a natural ventilation strategy has many benefits over mechanical or fan-powered systems, including lower carbon emissions, reduced operating costs, and ease of installation. according to the research mentioned above, it also appears to have measurable advantages when it comes to reducing the risk of infection spread indoors -this is further investigated below. to aid in the assessment of expected airflow and classroom comfort levels achieved in-situ for two displacement systems, a computational fluid dynamics study has been carried out. the cfd study aims to quantify the steady state performance within a school classroom for the following two natural ventilation systems with heat recovery: ventive windhive and ventive active. the overall ventilation performance will be quantified in terms of the simulated co 2 concentration levels within the classroom alongside more specific modelling results of the temperature and, most importantly, air velocity and airflow characteristics. the global setting for the analysis of the two ventilation systems is that of a fully enclosed classroom, with dimensions 3000h x 7000d x 8000w (mm), where: h is height, d is depth and w is width. the classroom is occupied by 30 seated students with corresponding chairs and tables as shown in figure 24 for the ventive windhive system. to enable a true representation of the natural ventilation system's working environment an additional region is included to represent the outside ambient with dimensions 10,000h x 10,000d x 10,000w (mm). although the two ventilation systems will be modelled in the same working environment, the configuration and set-up of each unit is different, and therefore each will be presented separately for clarity. the windhive system, shown in figure 24 , is a roof-mounted unit, with the indoor diffuser located at an arbitrary central location such that it is not positioned directly above any person. the ventive active system, shown in figure 25 , has a different buoyancy driving set-up utilising the external wall of the classroom with the supply unit located no more than 200mm from the floor level and the extract unit located at the top of the room (preferably 2.4m from the finished floor level or higher). following the finalisation of the geometry an idealised room specific 3d model of each set-up was created using cad software before being imported into star-ccm+ v13.06. to help reduce the computational expense of the simulations in terms of mesh and physics several modelling assumptions were made, these are listed below:  simplified geometry for the children and desks to act as the sole obstacles in the classroom  u value of 0.5 w/m 2 /k applied to the walls to account for an average heat flux  each child assumed to act as a heat source producing 70w (equating to a total heat source of 2100w)  wind, solar gain and equipment loads including lighting and airtightness are ignored  grill losses located on the invent active and passive are accounted for through specification of a porous medium with an effective opening of 85% and a porous inertial (α) and viscous (β) resistance of 1.77 and 1.71 m/s, respectively  to achieve a realistic outside ambient a small constant velocity field ([0.1] m/s) is active across the length of the domain, in order to account for natural wind and to help initiate a flow solution. this is adopted also for the additional ambient region within the invent passive simulation to account for the open window.  ambient and initial temperature field is equal to 10 °c  initial classroom co 2 level is set at 450ppm whilst the ambient/environment is equal to 400ppm  each child is presumed to provide a co 2 release rate of 0.035 m 3 /h equating to a bulk class co 2 supply of 1.05 m 3 /h the aim is to complete two independent cfd simulations, one for each of the natural ventilation systems. each simulation will operate with a multi-component gas as the working fluid, separated such that the co 2 and other components of air are modelled independently. the chosen software package for all simulations is that of the commercial cfd package, starccm+ v 13.06, supplied by siemens. this is a well validated cfd code that is widely used throughout both industry and academia. to provide a solution domain suitable for the cfd solver the 3d model must be discretised into a series of smaller fluid volumes by successively splitting nominally hexahedral cells until a desired cell size is achieved. the accuracy of a given simulation is largely controlled by the size and quality of the cells and therefore a number of refinement regions in areas of interest were created. it should also be noted that a grid independent solution is achievable, at this point further reduction of the cells will only account for a higher computational cost instead of improved accuracy. all meshes presented here have been generated using a trimmed cell mesh with local refinement regions and prism layers to account for the near wall effects. each mesh is illustrated below with the total number of cells for each specified. the total number of cells used for the windhive model is 9.5 million. an image of the mesh for windhive is shown in figure 26 . the total number of cells used for the invent active model is 7.7 million. an image of the mesh for windhive is shown in figure 27 . figure 28 shows the velocity scenes for the two cases for vertical and horizontal cross-sections. for both systems it can be seen that the greatest flow speeds are experienced at the inlet and outlet locations, with both the ventive windhive and ventive active showing the greatest velocities regarding the inlet stream. it also provides a top down projection of a 1m velocity slice, directly inline with the heads of the seated students. this image shows more clearly the locations and magnitude of the incoming air stream of the windhive. it must be noted that the ventive active's inlet is below this point. table 4 indicates the mass and volume flow rates calculated at the inlets and outlets of the two respective systems. the greatest flow rate is provided by the windhive (150 l/s) even without the wall purge opening whilst the active is somewhat lower in the fully passive operation mode (113 l/s). the stated flow rates relate to values of 4.8l/s (ventive windhive), and 3.6l/s (ventive active) per person with reference to 30 children and 1 teacher. an important factor aiding in achieving a desired level of co 2 within a room is the total rate of air change in one hour. based on a classroom area of 165m 3 the estimated number of air changes per hour for the two configurations (based on the inlet flow rates provided in table 4 ) are calculated as: • windhive = 3.3 air changes per hour • ventive active = 2.5 air changes per hour stagnation regions are possible for such systems according to the model whereby figure 28 shows the velocity profiles. however, people within such environment tend to stand up and move around slightly which will induce further air movement within the stagnated air regions. the cen report cr 1752 ventilation for buildings states that if seated occupants are the only source of pollution then the co 2 concertation should be below 800ppm for category a, 1000ppm for category b and 1500 for category c, where the outdoor ambient level is quoted as 350ppm. category a represents a high level of expectation, recommended for fragile and sensitive persons like young children, elderly, sick or handicapped persons. category b is the normal level of expectation that should be considered for new buildings or renovations. category c represents moderate level of expectation that may be used for existing buildings [74] . expectedly the windhive configuration provides the most air changes over a given period due to its higher flow rates, and this correlates to a more favourable mass fraction of co 2 , as shown in figure 29figure 28. although it should be noted that despite having a lower rate of air change, the ventive active reduces the levels of co 2 comparably to the windhive. both these systems appear to be able to maintain the initial co 2 conditions through the regular exchange and circulation of air throughout the room. the distinct airflow profiles of both natural ventilation systems shown above are of great interest in relation to spread of coronavirus and other pathogens indoors. the supplied fresh air is observed to distribute evenly at low level (well below the breathing, and especially exhaling, area) at a higher volume but lower velocity than fan induced ventilation (thus is much less likely to pick up heavier droplets already dropping to the floor) while the stale air appears to move steadily upwards before being exhausted out of the building, with no observed mixing indoors. this, in combination with the low observed co 2 levels (which are a good proxy for contaminated, exhaled air) as well as the prior research listed above (where, unlike mechanical and recirculating ventilation, the cloud of droplets and particles is not pushed around the room but instead travels in a fairly direct line from window to the exhaust vent, resulting in fewer people being exposed to it), indicates that natural ventilation has a much lower risk of spreading the droplet and aerosol borne infection indoors than other ventilation methods. this displacement and stacking effect in interesting also since it protects the occupant regardless of the configuration off the room: for example, younger children often sit around large table instead of rows. by moving the stale air upward the concentration at the breathing level is reduced as well as the infection risk. airborne disease transmission is highly contagious in enclosed environments and especially in buildings with inadequate or inappropriate ventilation systems. the theory shows that small droplets of less than 10 µm in diameter have the potential to remain in the air for hours since their terminal velocities would be at 3mm/s, depending on various characteristics and conditions at the time. with the unprecedented pandemic of the covid-19 spreading through the society at an extremely fast pace, many academics and industry professionals are raising the question of whether the current ventilation strategies are outdated and inadequate for such contagious diseases. even though the widely accepted mechanism of sars-cov-2 transmission to the date of writing this article has been through droplet borne pathways, the who is accepting the possibility that the deadly virus could be transmitted through the air. many research studies have shown that with appropriate ventilation, the risk of transmission is greatly reduced, further emphasizing the need for research into and adaptation of current ventilation methodologies. furthermore, an insufficient ventilation rate and inappropriate ventilation strategy (mixing of in-room or recycled air, poor mechanical ventilation maintenance) have been linked to degraded health outcomes for the users of high occupancy buildings. this includes facilitated airborne transmission of diseases, sick building syndrome, increased sickness absence and reduced cognition. this paper has reviewed widely used ventilation strategies adopted in high occupancy buildings such as schools and offices. the currently accepted approach to reducing airborne disease transmission recommended by various industry associations (ashrae, cibse) as well as the world health organisation is to increase the ventilation rate using plentiful fresh air to dilute the contaminant to a safe level. in many schools and other high occupancy buildings, the target ventilation rates are rarely met. the benefits of better health and attendance and resultant economic outcomes largely outweighed the capital investment of installing, renovating, or retrofitting appropriate ventilation solutions, even before the covid-19 pandemic. as can be seen above, the most commonly used ventilation approaches are inadequate when it comes to lowering airborne transmission risks. different strategies were reviewed with cfd examples to consider their impact on the pathogen propagation indoors. it seems beyond doubt that recirculating ventilation strategies should be avoided as they limit and prevent the dilution of harmful particles while also facilitating the distribution of stale, possibly contaminated air throughout occupied spaces. as the occupancy of the room increases (expressed in time and number of people), so does the exposure. mixing ventilation approaches are also disadvantageous as they may increase the range of infectious particles within the room and the range of sizes of particle that can sustainably remain airborne. displacement ventilation with a generously sized natural inlet is preferred as it can move stale, contaminated air directly to the exhaust of the room in a laminar fashion whilst the concentration of small droplets and airborne particles in the indoor air is significantly reduced. the mode of ventilation can be achieved by either fully natural ventilation or natural supply with a mechanical extraction strategy. natural displacement ventilation offers many other advantages such as reduced power consumption and low maintenance costs. on the other hand, some natural ventilation systems may lack controllability or a heat recovery, both of which can be addressed through careful system selection (ensuring sensor-based responses as well as automatic actuators for the supply and exhaust openings) and good design practice. mechanical solutions have an energy consumption penalty due to the use of fans and may require larger capital investment and maintenance costs. if balanced mechanical systems are to be considered, a significant, research based, re-design effort is required with larger ductwork and openings to avoid high air velocity and in-room mixing ventilation dynamics which currently can defeat the purpose of ventilation by increasing the concentrations and the range of the infectious particles. it has also been demonstrated that the use of filters can prove detrimental when not properly maintained and regularly cleaned or changed. on the other hand, the use of mouth and nose covering, such as 3 ply masks for example, directly impact the quantity of droplets and particles emitted by the occupants in the indoor volume. in practice, the constant use of these masks can reduce the comfort level of the occupants and may be difficult to enforce in high occupancy buildings since it relies on the cooperation of each individual and following procedures. whereas, the implementation of a natural displacement ventilation systems passively offers an additional form of transmission risk reduction. two ventive natural displacement ventilation systems were chosen for study using cfd simulations. the large air volume combined with low airflow speed allow sufficient quantities of fresh air to be supplied into the space, distributing evenly through the bottom of the room and gradually displacing the stale air to the top of the space thanks to the buoyancy-driven stack effect. the advantages of this type of ventilation strategy is that it can significantly reduce the risk of airborne disease transmission. it provides large volume ventilation at low air speed, which facilitates a stratification effect. this stratification effect along with the appropriate placement of air inlets and outlets allow a natural and almost universal upward flow of air to the top of the room and out through the appropriate exhaust vents. this restricts the horizontal movement of airborne particles which contain pathogens that are produced when infected individuals breath, speak or cough, capturing the smaller droplets to migrate almost upwards, while allowing larger droplets to fall out of breathable level air, vastly reducing the risk of disease transmission via indoor air. the large volume of fresh air supplied into rooms lowers the concentration of other contaminants in the room and increases the iaq to desired levels. as an added benefit, in both closely studied systems, the heat recovery capability and dynamic, connected controls both increase comfort levels, making the high air refresh rate more bearable for occupants, and enable remote adaptation of ventilation provision, which improves the response of facilities managers to risk levels. building services of high occupancy buildings must be better adapted as a matter of urgency to facilitate the reduction of disease transmission resulting from inappropriate or inadequate ventilation. the covid-19 pandemic has exposed areas requiring urgent development to protect both our health, wellbeing and the economy by providing safe indoor environments for employees or students. this paper has demonstrated possible routes for indoor disease transmission, the mechanisms in which diseases can spread, facilitated by conventional ventilation systems, the gaps in current knowledge and technologies and areas of interest for future research and development. although many cases of disease transmission can be reduced by social distancing or wearing the recommended ppe, the air surrounding us indoors requires much better management to safely remove air borne pathogens. many of the current ventilation strategies that rely on centralised air distribution and ceiling level supply or recirculation can provide the optimum conditions for rapid disease spread in high occupancy buildings. 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makris-makridis, s. consultant, passive ventilation with heat recovery in an urban school: performance in use performance of a natural ventilation system with heat recovery in uk classrooms: an experimental study towards sustainable, energyefficient and healthy ventilation strategies in buildings: a review the effect of ventilation on air particulate matter in school classrooms on the definition of ventilation requirements in iaq standards -a method based on emission rates of pollutants on the definition of ventilation requirements in iaq standards -a method based on emission rates of pollutants rua luis reis santos key: cord-120017-vsoc9v85 authors: jiang, helen; senge, erwen title: usable security for ml systems in mental health: a framework date: 2020-08-18 journal: nan doi: nan sha: doc_id: 120017 cord_uid: vsoc9v85 while the applications and demands of machine learning (ml) systems in mental health are growing, there is little discussion nor consensus regarding a uniquely challenging aspect: building security methods and requirements into these ml systems, and keep the ml system usable for end-users. this question of usable security is very important, because the lack of consideration in either security or usability would hinder large-scale user adoption and active usage of ml systems in mental health applications. in this short paper, we introduce a framework of four pillars, and a set of desired properties which can be used to systematically guide and evaluate security-related designs, implementations, and deployments of ml systems for mental health. we aim to weave together threads from different domains, incorporate existing views, and propose new principles and requirements, in an effort to lay out a clear framework where criteria and expectations are established, and are used to make security mechanisms usable for end-users of those ml systems in mental health. together with this framework, we present several concrete scenarios where different usable security cases and profiles in ml-systems in mental health applications are examined and evaluated. with a mental health crisis looming large and many ml systems being built for mental health use cases, it is challenging to trace, analyze, and compare all the designs and implementations of such systems. so far, there is a lack of well-defined framework that describes properties relating to the security of such ml systems in mental health, and even less considerations are given to how such security mechanisms can be usable for those systems' end users. however, without usable security, undiscovered, undisclosed, and ill-considered limitations and properties of security decisions would hold back large-scale adoption and usage [2] of ml systems in mental health use cases. for more detailed and nuanced discussions, see our treatment at section 4.3. the goal of this framework is to establish discussions in communities of mental health, ml, and security, so we can build a common ground for directions and expectations for usable security in ml systems used in mental health scenarios. moreover, this framework serves to raise awareness, so that both ml and mental health communities will heed this critical aspect of usable security in ml systems for mental health. we hope that this new, interdisciplinary framework would allow researchers and practitioners to systematically compare usable security attributes across ml systems for mental health, meanwhile to identify potential limitations of particular approaches and trade-offs in different scenarios. in this short paper, we propose that ml systems in mental health use cases, beyond the privacy and security requirements already mandated by legislation's and regulations -for example, health insurance portability and accountability act (hippa) [38, 43, 64] in united states, and general data protection regulation (gdpr) in european union and its member states' national laws [11, 12] -should consider properties of usable security proposed by this framework's four pillars, and be evaluated on their (1)context models, (2)functionality criteria, (3)trustworthiness requirements, and (4)recovery principles across their life cycles. this work presents our effort to generate discussions and consensus for a common framework in a naturally interdisciplinary area. we built our research on the foundation of computer security research, which has a rich history and long tradition of devising criteria and evaluation rubrics for system designs and implementations. we also incorporated important and recent literature from human-computer interaction (hci), usable security, and fairness, accountability, and transparency (fat) research of ml. weaving these interdisciplinary threads together, we hope that our framework will benefit both researchers and practitioners working on ml systems in mental health. there is a long and distinguished tradition in computer security research: presciently define evaluation criteria and structure assessment frameworks, while research communities were still in their early stages of formation. from this tradition, many remarkable security research outcomes have flourished, and guided the design and building of systems and infrastructure we rely on today [21, 22, 30, 31, 37, 51, 67] . however, while the pioneers of security research laid down "psychological acceptability" of users as a key principle for secure system design and implementations [49] , this principle has not been actively researched within the security community until much later while security measures keep confusing even experts [3, 10, 54, 68, 71] . moreover, the "psychological acceptability" principle is often doubted as incompatible with the goal of "security" [7, 15, 44, 47, 56, 63, 69, 71] , and much of usable security research has traditionally been done in the hci community, and usable security is still a small community [41, 45, 65] compared to other areas of security research. while "psychological acceptability" principle is first identified as the meaning of "usable" in "usable security" [49, 71] , there are other efforts trying to precisely define "usability" especially in hci contexts, based on the "human-centered" attribute of interactive systems. a prominent example is iso 9241-210 [23] : "usability" is "the extent to which a product can be used by specified users to achieve specified goals with effectiveness, efficiency, and satisfaction in a specified context of use". built on this definition, [62] of nist proposed measurements on usability evaluations. however, as [62, 71] both point out, measurement of usable security can be highly diverse and context-dependent, meanwhile, such measurements and evaluations focus on the system and its interactions with targeted users, often done with small groups in controlled environments [32, 42] , with security as the users' top concern. while the "security is top priority" assumption can be very reasonable for use cases such as national and corporate security, the same assumption likely does not stand when we are evaluating ml systems in mental health use cases, in which users have diverse top priorities. this complicates the already fragmented landscape [26] of usable security, and while ml applications in mental health and fat ml research are booming [53, 57] , they still do not take usability and security into serious consideration. our framework evaluates usable security of ml systems in mental health based on four pillars. each pillar, in turn, serves as the top concern for each major phase of the computer system life cycle, which can be summarized as: (1)design and implementation; (2)deployment; (3)mass adoption and usage; and finally, (4)maintenance and/or disposal [39, 40, 46] . (1) context: this pillar considers the intended operational environment of the ml system, and how it is designed and built to interact with different types of users with varying purposes, goals, and maliciousness. this pillar is most important during the design and implementation phase of ml systems for mental health. (2) functionality: this pillar tackles the well-known securityfunctionality trade-off [4, 25, 27, 35, 71] . keeping ml systems functional while making security usable, it is imperative to ask questions about the complexity and resourceintensity of security methods within the already complex and often resource-intensive ml system, the flexibility of chosen methods to accommodate future security requirements, and how they influence user interactions with the ml system. this pillar is most crucial in the deployment phase of ml systems, especially in the initial stage, when such system is in limited use, without users' significant investment of trust and time. (3) trustworthiness: this pillar is by nature user-centered. many non-expert, lay users are already distrustful and leery of ml, and this set of requirements show that on the matter of security and usability, ml systems may still induce users' trust in the sensitive context of mental health. this pillar is the most critical in achieving active usage and large-scale adoption [2] of secure ml systems for mental health. (4) recovery: this pillar handles perhaps one of the toughest challenges in both security and usability: what happens, should a security incident (e.g. a breach, a compromise, or a previously undiscovered vulnerability) happens? what are we going to do with the system and users, now and later? how do we account for the incident this time, to minimize the chance that it would happen again? this pillar is the top priority in maintenance and/or disposal phase of the computer system life cycle. the list can help ask the right questions for designing and building usable security [51] into ml systems for mental health: it determines what and how much "usability" to be considered in a security environment, and move from the more general security threat models, to specific cases of user interactions in mental health scenarios, and also to weigh in negative use cases. the properties below are agnostic to programming languages, software stacks, deployment platforms, and hardware specifications, so they are also flexible enough to accommodate a large class of usable security scenarios for ml systems in mental health. c1 asset audit. ml systems in mental health almost inevitably acquire information assets while in use, for example, it may include users' locations, device types etc., as well as patients' functional status information, providers' notes, and organization's intervention plans. understandably, existing regulations mostly focus on these acquired assets. however, in ml systems, "asset" is not only acquired, but also native to the system itself: its algorithms and models, ground truths, datasets, decision-making logic, and result evaluations, etc. therefore, identifying both native and acquired assets of the ml system is critical for usable security. c2 target user profiling. ml systems can be utilized by different stakeholders in mental health: from patients, providers, to government officials, they use the system to achieve different goals. profiling the system's targeted users is the basis to make concrete observations and reasonable estimations, which are then incorporated into design and implementation requirements. knowing the targeted users and what they use the ml system for, this is usable security's positive case: legitimate users can establish trusted paths and use the system without being hindered by its security requirements. usable security's negative case is given in c4. c3 behaviors categorization. behaviors of targeted legitimated users described in c2 can be either expected by the system, or unexpected and cause the system to fail, error out, or even trigger security incidents. while it is not possible to iterate through all unexpected behaviors from legitimate users, unexpected user behaviors raise two key components of usable security, and need to be addressed in design and implementation: (1) motivating users to behave in a secure manner so to minimize the systems' failures, errors, and security exposures, because users are not the enemy [3] ; (2) when such motivations fail, follow the "fail-safe" principle [49] , meanwhile deliver warning messages about security and failures with usability in mind [5, 50, 58] . this property is interdependent with f5, where we discuss robustness. c4 threat modeling. once the assets are audited and target users and behaviors profiled, threat modeling is essential for security, as threat modeling is a well-studied and used subject in computer security [17, 33, 48, 55] . there are three main components to consider: (1) assets the ml system needs to protect, (2) scope of interactions between system and user based on c3; and (3) malicious actors and their actions the systems need to defend against. in contrast to c2, malicious actors are usable security's negative case: malicious users are stopped or slowed down by the system's security measures. the following properties are most useful when seen from a deployment perspective. they describe how a ml system works with inplace security requirements while interacting with users. f1 complexity. most, if not all ml systems and applications have at least one of the three constraints: time, memory, and computational power. therefore, any security measures should consider these constraints and its impact on how well the ml system serves the end users. for example, in a high concurrency event where many users are utilizing the same ml system, if a given security method uses negligible computational power resource on users' end but consumers a lot of system resources, we should consider alternatives for this security method. to measure such complexity, we can use either formal algorithmic complexity notions (e.g. big o, little o), or empirical evaluations. for example, in 10-user, 100-user, 1,000-user concurrency scenarios, what is the average computational overhead or latency for specific sets of security requirements, with other software and hardware constraints stay the same. f2 availability. for large-scale ml systems, e.g. mental health use cases with multiple targeted user groups, security measures also need to scale. availability evaluates how well security methods can generalize to cover a ml system's targeted users and behaviors (c2, c3) without hindering their access to the ml system. a quantitative heuristic for availability of security measures is estimated user adoption rates across user groups, as well as among the genera user base. notice that the availability criteria is a trade-off to the "least common mechanism" principle for secure system design [49] , and the relative importance between the two are dependent on results of context modeling, in particular c4. regardless of which one of the two weighs more heavily in specific scenarios, the security mechanism in question must be carefully designed, judiciously implemented, and rigorously tested before real user runs. f3 flexibility. retrofitting security to usability is usually a bad idea and doesn't work well [7, 69] , therefore it is important to not only prioritize usable security when designing and building ml systems for mental health, but also to not let current implementations become roadblocks to additional security requirements or system capabilities. having flexibility accommodates future changes in the system and shifting user base, and is a long-term commitment to the system's usable security traits. f4 experience validation. to ascertain that security measures did not hold back users, it is crucial to validate real user interactions and experience with the system, regardless of the methods: ideal controlled environments, synthetic experiments, or random sampling. for positive case of usable security (c2) that makes the system more secure but not harder for legitimate users, conducting user studies to evaluate their experiences, interactions, effectiveness, and satisfactions with the system [29, 60] would be indispensable evidence for the ml system's real-world usability. f5 robustness. robustness is well-researched in computer system [1, 6, 18, 36, 59] , and recent interests in adversarial ml [8, 9, 16] has early roots in ml robustness [61] . in our consideration, robustness is also related to recovery principles in section 3.4, and has two angles: (1) for security, to tolerate and withstand certain errors and faults from the ml layer, the system layer, and user interaction layer; and (2) for usability, to communicates to users clearly and timely, when trusted paths cannot be established because of scenarios exceeding (1)'s robustness levels. interdependent with this criterion is c3 for unexpected user behavior categorization. many non-experts are suspicious and distrustful of ml, because of ml's "blackbox magic" reputation. moreover, the technical nature of fat ml methods has not endeared lay users towards machine learning either. now, suppose that another layer of hard-to-use and hard-to-navigate security measures and designs is added to an ml system, such distrust is perhaps only going to grow more intense and open. while the users' sentiment of distrust is understandable, the need for good mental health is agnostic about one's feelings towards machine learning and usability of security designs. therefore, to enable active usage and large-scale adoption [2] of secure ml systems in mental health cases, it is important to first induce users' trust in the ml systems used, before their active utilization of such ml systems. the trustworthiness requirement suggests how ml systems in mental health may still earn users' trust, through its security and usability, by well-designed user interactions and communications. t1 clarity. articulating relevant security mechanisms, and their intents, impacts, and implications to users, is fundamental to trustbuilding. we identified three clarity aspects: (1)clarity of ml, where certain artifacts of the ml system's decision-making logic and process (e.g. summary statistics, explanations for classification labels) are exposed and explained to user in non-technical manners; (2)clarity of security, where user-facing security mechanisms (e.g. trusted path establishment, or revocation of access delegation), and these mechanisms' intents and purposes, are disclosed before users engage in these security mechanisms and take actions, preferably in non-technical terms; and (3)clarity of failure modes, where recovery (section 3.4) plan in case of security incidents, is summarized and communicated to users in non-technical terminology. t2 constraints. complementary to t1, whose focus is on positive cases -i.e. what can be and is done -this requirement focuses mostly on negative cases. while providing clarity, ml systems need to draw boundaries and limitations on their capabilities and responsibilities, and then communicate such information. when determining the scope of usable security and communicating to users, we suggest three main factors: (1) limitations, emphasizing what the system cannot do (e.g. delegating access without explicit user actions from a trusted path), is not authorized to do (e.g. sharing chatbot history with unknown third parties), or unwilling to do (e.g. exposing ml models' features and parameters) for technical and non-technical reasons; (2) boundaries, concerning what the user's actions cannot accomplish; and (3) expectations, dealing with interactions between users and systems, on what users' expectations for the systems should not be. this requirement may seem counterintuitive, but it is founded on the "fail-safe" principle of computer security [14, 49] : the default situation is lack of access -that is, by default, actions and operations are constrained and not allowed to execute. t3 consistency and stability. for similar user behaviors under similar contextual conditions, ideally, usability-and security-related experience and interactions should be: (1) similar, within fixed ml systems (data, algorithm, procedure, parameters, input), and (2) comparable, across different ml systems capable to cover the same contextual conditions in their use cases. we name it "consistency" property. conversely, for the same usability and security methods, when provided with the same user behavior inputs, should respond with similar user experience and interaction. we call this "stability" property. there properties can help users build their own mental models for how security mechanisms and the general ml system work, and align their expectations with the system's responses. note that we controlled the variables ("similar", "fixed", "same") while describing consistency and stability, therefore consistency is not constancy, and stability is not staleness. in fact, the dynamic nature of usable security and the user expectation-system behavior alignment model are both well-known [24] . the goal of alignment, is to motivate secure user behavior and raise user's trust level in the system, and consistency and stability are inroads to alignment. t4 reciprocity. leveraging the human tendency to return favors, ml systems in mental health can elicit actions of trust from users, and motivate their secure behaviors and active engagements, as hci research showed [10, 19, 20] : after users receive helpful information from a computer system, they are more likely to provide useful information or actions back to the system. for reciprocity schemes in ml systems in mental health, we identify two stages: (1)initial exchange of reciprocity, where after volunteering helpful information to users, the system prompts user for desirable information or behavior input; and (2)continuous engagement, meaning that after the initial round, if the user reciprocates, the system should aim to maintain exchanges with users, when user behaviors and other contextual conditions warrant so. depending on specific areas where the ml system needs to induce trust and motivate behaviors (e.g. having users enable security features, or actively use ml capacities), details of the interaction mechanisms, from the initial offer of help to ongoing engagement patterns, will vary. because reciprocity largely depends on user interactions with the system, it naturally focuses on usability, and has different tradeoff with security for different context models. therefore, any reciprocity schemes must be designed, implemented, and validated judiciously to defend against reciprocity attacks [70] . good security needs failure modes, and usable security is no exception. with a variety of assets to protect c1, many functionalities to perform, and user trust to gain and maintain, ml systems in mental health must have a concrete plan for security failures. these principles lay out a foundation to consider the immediate and long-term aftermath of security incidents and their responses, so ml systems in mental health can retain usable security attributes and rebuild trust with users (t4). r1 response. previous research [28, 62] surveyed security incidents such as user data leaks, but did not address more complex security challenges to ml systems in mental health, whose sensitive and diverse assets, both native and acquired, make juicy targets. therefore, ml systems must have protocols and procedures in place, timely reviewed and revised, and ready to respond to security incidents, to achieve three goals: (1) evaluate scope and impact of incident, (2) minimize damages to impacted assets, (3) investigate and attribute sources of incident, and most importantly, (4) rebuild trust in users for the system. (1) through (3) address immediate actions, while (4) is a long-term process that ensures ml systems can maintain its stay with user bases in mental health. this principle is related to c1, c4, and trustworthiness requirements. r2 provenance and chronology. the usability of security, in its failure mode, entails that security failures can be traced, examined, analyzed, and inform future security decisions, and such need is satisfied by post-incident provenance and chronology. in ml systems for mental health, provenance and chronology should not only supply (1) a time ordering of system events, technical vulnerabilities or disadvantages, procedural limitations, uncovered edge cases, user interactions, statistics, and likely warning signals leading up to the incident, but also (2) records of any changes (e.g. content, metadata, mode, appearance) in impacted assets (e.g. manipulated ml model parameter, altered user interface, leaked health history), from when the incident happened, to when it is uncovered. both provenance and chronology can be considered for user-facing purposes as a tool for repair (r3) and to rebuild trustworthiness. r3 repair. post-security-incident repair has two aspects: (1)repairing the system itself, and (2)repairing users' trust in the system. (1) is the direct logical next step of r1 and r2 with immediate impact and results, while (2) tends to be long-term, and is more difficult -it needs all the building blocks of trustworthiness to repair users' trust in ml systems impacted by security incidents, especially when incidents concern user data, user-system interaction, or even users' offline behaviors. repairing trust needs to address additional psychological barriers of users, hence harder than building trust at first, but it is still possible when t2 and t4 are emphasized and utilized in the repair process. our framework is a suggestion, an encouragement, a proposal, and an invitation to the community to start acknowledging and researching usability and security in ml systems for mental health. while our framework is not a standardized rubric, we realize that it may become a foundation for future standards, guidelines, or recommendations by organizations such as nist, iso, or ieee, for usable security in generic interactive ml systems, or specifically in mental health applications. previously, standards were issued on transparency and autonomy in autonomous systems [52] , and we are sanguine about a general consensus on usable security in ml systems, especially for mental health use cases. we intentionally crafted this framework to be agnostic to ml techniques: hence, we can focus on providing a unified structure that is not only comprehensive enough to cover the current interdisciplinary area between traditional computer security, hci, and ml, but is also flexible enough to accommodate future changes and progresses in these areas. we hope this framework can enable researchers and practitioners to: (1) identify gaps in security and usability between their theoretical capacities, design variances, actual implementations, and real-world usage patterns; and (2) quickly appraise properties of particular security and usability methods to decide on the most appropriate mechanism for their desired use cases. in addition, our evaluation framework can be used as a reporting rubric targeting regulators, government officials, and policy makers, so they can quickly get all information in one place, in a clear, structured, and comparable manner. when we speak of "practitioners" in the section above, in the specific context of ml systems for mental health, there are broadly two categories that we target: (1) security practitioners: in general system security contexts, security mechanisms and policies are researched, designed, implemented, tested, maintained, and improved by security professionals. (2) ml practitioners: in general ml system contexts, ml practitioners research, apply, curate, train, validate, test, maintain, improve ml models, algorithms, and date . yet, as we discuss usable security in ml systems for mental health, the matter gets more complex: there are more stakeholders, both on the system builders' side, and on the system users' side. and on each side, there are multiple considerations, interests, and mental models that come into play. table 1 below shows the different stakeholders when we build security to be usable into ml systems for mental health. comparing it with figure 1 , the critical differences between the building usable security into general system versus into ml systems for mental health can be clearly discerned. to summarize: there are more stakeholders on the users' side who deserve usable security for their more diverse needs of the ml system for mental health, and there are more stakeholders on the builders' side who have distinct desires for what they want do with, and how they wish such system to behave. for example, while security and ml practitioners desire different ideal attributes from the system and those attributes are not necessarily at odds or contradict with each other, there are tradeoffs to make. between "strong defense" with implications for privacy on patient information and "collect data" for training when in general, more data is usually better, the builders within themselves need to reach a delicate balance first. on the other end, instead of the cohesive and more-or-less predictable and uniform sets of actions normally expected from user models built for general software or ml systems, we now have a diverse set of potential users, with various sets of actions and behaviors that are not usually taken into account for in those general purpose software or ml systems. in those general purpose systems, figure 1 shows the path of how security mechanism and experience are delivered to end users. behaviors, actions, expectations, and use scenarios of these end users would be captured in user models, and security practitioners would design, build, and deploy security measures and experiences according to those user models. but because of the diverse and varying expectations and actions from distinct groups of end users 1 , such user models would be too narrow and missing out on legitimate use actions and behaviors. this is a major reason that we crafted this framework: to properly account for and appreciate the diversity and variety of users and their actions in ml systems for mental health, with the end goal to bring a usable and secure experience to all. as described within sections for each of those sub-attributes, those attributes are not mutually exclusive nor completely independent from each other. instead, there are rich and dynamic interactions between these sub-attributes, both within a single pillar and across different pillars. four major types of interactions are list below with short examples. (1) inter-dependence: f5 and c3 are interdependent. in this case, without behavior categorization, robustness is next to impossible to plan for or implement; and without robustness measures tested and used in real-life, it would be very hard to validate if the behavior categorizations are reasonable or sufficient. (2) trade-offs: f2 is a trade-off to the "least common mechanism" principle for secure system design as articulated in [49] : for security measures to generalize to diverse sets of targeted users and behaviors, commonality increases and distinctions decline. (3) prioritization: in many scenarios, prioritizing particular principles before others is the most reasonable and sensible course of action. for example, a large-scale online platform delivering automated conversational therapy may prioritize f2 and f5, at the same time de-prioritize trustworthiness requirements based on the assumption that people seeking online automated services generally have greater trust in ml systems and technology, and are likely to be technically proficient enough to navigate security designs built in place. (4) complements: t1 and t2 are complementary: they consider opposite sides of the same issue, and from there, create a comprehensive view and enables balanced and holistic decisions for usable security designs and implementations. these dynamic and interactive relationships carry deep implications for usable security in ml systems for mental health, and we will explore some examples that showcase these interactive and dynamic relationships between the properties in section 5. we will now apply the four pillared framework, and share several tangible use cases of ml systems for mental health where we evaluate and examine their usable security needs and profiles. this way, we can concretely demonstrate the practicality of our framework, illustrate the dynamic and interactive relationships between the pillars and their corresponding sub-attributes, and showcase the complex and distinct stakeholder demands for usable security that warrant such a framework. we will elaborate on example 1 with brief comparisons and contrasts to the three other examples, and leave examples 2 to 4 for readers' exercise. (1) chatbot providing conversation-based therapy to young adults with mental disorders (2) auto-diagnosis algorithms of neuro-images for psychiatrists (3) personalized matching for providers & patients (4) ml system analyzing facial and verbal expressions during tele-therapy sessions in 1, the chatbot's context is an online automated services, and hence is more likely to experience high concurrency requests from many different users with existing mental disorders, and such online large-scale services may also be needed in times of distress (e.g. quarantine during covid-19 global pandemic) to parts of the general population. therefore, its usable security mechanisms need to prioritize being available and robust enough to handle more users, and wider ranges behaviors and actions of legitimate users. at the same time, inducing users' trust may not be as important, because we may consider people willing to use online chatbot services are more trusting towards ml and technology in general. although, soon we would see that if security mechanisms and designs are not usable or robust enough, such assumption of trust may not be warranted, and if there were any, would be drastically diminished. the assets it needs to protect are not only the security of its general software infrastructure, but also its ml algorithms that generate live conversation responses to users: recall the infamous incident of microsoft's chatbot tay on twitter [66] , caution must be taken to ensure that legitimate users who need the therapy service could easily and readily access it without much hassle, and that malicious users could be fended off so they could not manipulate the algorithms. while this may seem simple at first, we must properly categorize behaviors of our potential legitimate users, who have existing mental disorders. take attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (adhd) for instance. suppose that the chatbot implements classes of captcha or recaptcha methods -which may include text, image, and sound recognition, as well as text and image matching -to defend against its threat model actors that include bots and malicious users trying to poison its algorithms. while these methods may be effective to defend against these threats, legitimate users with adhd, whose attention spans are usually shorter than the general population [34] , may be unlikely to complete the captchas, especially when there are several ones that come one after another. when security defense designs turn legitimate users away, these users may leave with the idea that such mechanisms built to trick them, and the system behind it has no genuine intention to provide them help, and hence their implied trust in the chatbot when they first approached this online automated service, may likely diminish. hence, it would be advisable to also take trustworthiness requirement seriously, especially the constraint property. one way to demonstrate it, is using clear language or visual images to inform users of failures. for instance, when a user's attention span is too short to successfully finish a series of recaptcha challenges, a message displays: "sorry we could not tell if you are a human or bot. do you want to try another way?" this or similar messages could communicate to legitimate users that the system genuinely intends to provide services, the recaptchas are there because it is a security design, not a farce or trick to turn them away, and there are certain things that these recaptchas are not capable of doing. further thoughts bring more usable security considerations to the discussion on example 1. should the chatbot store any records of its user interactions, so that human providers and caregivers (e.g. parents or legal guardians) of these young adults could monitor their progress, provide better diagnosis, treatment, and care, then we are onto more complex scenarios. there are now two more groups of users to consider, and how to provide usable security for them is a crucial challenge. moreover, because now there are stored user records, there is an additional asset to protect, and the recovery principles need to be elevated to higher priorities, especially repairing users' trust in the service in the event of a breach or leak. this is where flexibility also comes into the picture: if builders of the chatbot had not originally considered this sharing services, and only later decided to add it, flexibility of previous security capabilities to accommodate the additional security requirements that come with sharing user records, is extremely important. in a base case, even when the chatbot is originally built to not only converse with patients, but also store their records and allows them to share their records with their providers and caregivers, clarity of usable security designs that are informed by behavior categorization would be integral. for instance, some young adult patients may decide to simply share their passwords with their providers and caretakers for the latter groups to look at their chat records. however, if these patients are in the u.s., this simple act may land their providers and caretakers in legal trouble: because a shared password, even a voluntarily shared one, counts as unauthorized access by the computer fraud and abuse act [13] . preempting such behaviors would greatly inform usable security decisions when designing and building this chatbot. for example, builders may decide to use methods other than passwords to check for user authorization and authentication status; to utilize the constraint criteria, and outwardly warn users to not share their passwords even with trusted providers and caregivers; or to add particular terms in the end-user licensing agreement, security & privacy policies, or terms & services documents, and specify cases where the patient could share passwords; or to build a security measure so that patients can delegate access to their records to authenticated providers and caregivers. to choose the most suitable usable security mechanisms or combinations of such mechanisms, builders of the chatbot would need to deliberate on which contexts, and especially which threat models they decide to focus on. in comparison, example 2 has a very specific and focused profile of targeted users (psychiatrists), so the inter-dependent properties of behavior categorization and robustness would be straightforward to analyze and design, and the assets and threat models are also relatively clearly defined and direct. meanwhile, because such system is used for medical diagnosis, all attributes related to trustworthiness need to be prioritized: the builders cannot assume that psychiatrists are trusting the ml system's decisions. moreover, while the threat models are relatively simple compared to example 1 and 4, the system still needs to induce trust from the psychiatrists: how do they know it is them, instead of malicious attackers described in the threat models, who see the images, patients' information, and the algorithm outputs? to address these issues, some security designs may include: ml explanation options that accompany each diagnosis; a side bar that shows access activities; or a device-based two-factor authentication check. again, it is up to both the ml and security practitioners who build this system, to decide on the specific contexts and threats they would like to prioritize. example 3 also has a straightforward profile for behaviors as example 2, but the threat models could be tricky: because depending on what the builders of the system decide to gather from both the patients and providers for the match, assets that the system needs to protect could swing a rather wide range. meanwhile, because of the usual one-on-one nature of patient-provider relationships, in contrast to example 1, de-prioritizing the availability of security measures to large numbers of online users could be sensible, and the system might even be able to afford using more time-, memory-, or computationally-complex security mechanisms that are nonetheless usable for both providers and patients of the service. for example, incorporating reciprocity into the human-system interaction process, by engaging users in short q&a games about secure behaviors -which by the way, could also induces trust from users about the system's security, and fulfill part of the trustworthiness requirement. but on the ml front, trustworthiness here is similar to the premise of 1 but the spirit of example 2. while patients and providers who choose to use a ml-powered matching service could be assumed to have a greater degree of general trust in ml and technology, the same level of trust could not be assumed in the specific matching decisions: "how and why did this black-box know that i would be a good fit for this patient/provider?" would be the question to answer for every patient or provider who uses the service. example 4 involves more diverse user groups (patients, providers, likely other caregivers, and potentially policy-makers). hence, the assets need to be protected are more varied and diverse, the threat models more complex, the recovery scenarios more important, and the usable security mechanisms may need to make trade-offs between availability and flexibility while still being functional when processing live audio and video data, which is another subtle constraint on the complexity of usable security mechanisms. similar to examples 2 and 3, the inevitable question of trustworthiness would arise on the ml system's decision rationales and explanations, and there is also an incentive on the builders' end to assure that algorithms and models powering the system are not being manipulated. because the information being processed and analyzed by the system is largely private and sensitive, convincing different users of the effectiveness and strength of the security mechanisms is also an important task. comparing it to example 1 where there are clearer priorities, this system poses a set of full-on challenge for usable security design, implementations, and evaluations. in our work, we presented four categories of desired properties -based on context, functionality, trustworthiness, and recovery -to systematically frame and evaluate usable security in ml system for mental health. we discussed those properties' intents, rationales, and sources in the intersection of security, usability, ml, and mental health. we propose that ml systems in mental health be evaluated by the way of this framework for security and usability, in different phases of the computer system life cycle. we have analyzed, structured, and presented several examples of ml systems in mental health in this framework, and for next steps, we plan to evaluate more real-life ml systems in mental health, preferably similar to the four described examples, so we can test, validate, and improve our framework and criteria. simultaneously, we also plan to interview builders of these ml systems in mental health, to understand their awareness of, thought processes behind, and decision rationales of usable security in the systems they designed and built. because the framework covers the computer system life cycle, while we prefer already deployed, large-scale systems, we are also happy to examine systems in early stages of the cycle. we plan to publish results on websites where this interdisciplinary community can also submit their own framework evaluation results. in a deeper dive, our future work will explore a tiered approach to usable security for ml systems, inspired by classic security literature [37] , meanwhile further examine interactions -e.g. trade-offs, enhancements, overlaps from different perspectives, complements, and interdependence -between desirable usability and security properties for ml systems in mental health. ieee standard glossary of software engineering terminology inclusive persuasion for security software adoption users are not the enemy 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design: a vision for prioritizing human wellbeing with artificial intelligence and autonomous systems machine learning in mental health: a scoping review of methods and applications why johnny still canã¢ä�å¹t encrypt: evaluating the usability of email encryption software threat modeling: designing for security usable security: oxymoron or challenge explainability fact sheets: a framework for systematic assessment of explainable approaches on the challenges in usable security lab studies: lessons learned from replicating a study on ssl warnings building robust systems an essay evaluating usercomputer interaction: a framework building robust learning systems by combining induction and optimization usable security is usable security an oxymoron? united states department of health and human services usenix. 2015. usenix soups 2020 conference page microsoft created a twitter bot to learn from users. it quickly became a racist jerk security controls for computer systems: report of defense science board task force on computer security aligning security and usability reciprocity attacks user-centered security key: cord-020896-yrocw53j authors: agarwal, mansi; leekha, maitree; sawhney, ramit; ratn shah, rajiv; kumar yadav, rajesh; kumar vishwakarma, dinesh title: memis: multimodal emergency management information system date: 2020-03-17 journal: advances in information retrieval doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-45439-5_32 sha: doc_id: 20896 cord_uid: yrocw53j the recent upsurge in the usage of social media and the multimedia data generated therein has attracted many researchers for analyzing and decoding the information to automate decision-making in several fields. this work focuses on one such application: disaster management in times of crises and calamities. the existing research on disaster damage analysis has primarily taken only unimodal information in the form of text or image into account. these unimodal systems, although useful, fail to model the relationship between the various modalities. different modalities often present supporting facts about the task, and therefore, learning them together can enhance performance. we present memis, a system that can be used in emergencies like disasters to identify and analyze the damage indicated by user-generated multimodal social media posts, thereby helping the disaster management groups in making informed decisions. our leave-one-disaster-out experiments on a multimodal dataset suggest that not only does fusing information in different media forms improves performance, but that our system can also generalize well to new disaster categories. further qualitative analysis reveals that the system is responsive and computationally efficient. the amount of data generated every day is colossal [10] . it is produced in many different ways and many different media forms. analyzing and utilizing this data to drive the decision-making process in various fields intelligently has been the primary focus of the research community [22] . disaster response management is one such area. natural calamities occur frequently, and in times of such crisis, if the large amount of data being generated across different platforms is harnessed m. agarwal and m. leekha-the authors contributed equally, and wish that they be regarded as joint first authors. rajiv ratn shah is partly supported by the infosys center for ai, iiit delhi. well, the relief groups will be able to make effective decisions that have the potential to enhance the response outcomes in the affected areas. to design an executable plan, disaster management and relief groups should combine information from different sources and in different forms. however, at present, the only primary source of information is the textual reports which describe the disaster's location, severity, etc. and may contain statistics of the number of victims, infrastructural loss, etc. motivated by the cause of humanitarian aid in times of crises and disasters, we propose a novel system that leverages both textual and visual cues from the mass of user-uploaded information on social media to identify damage and assess the level of damage incurred. in essence, we propose memis, a system that aims to pave the way to automate a vast multitude of problems ranging from automated emergency management, community rehabilitation via better planning from the cues and patterns observed in such data and improve the quality of such social media data to further the cause of immediate response, improving situational awareness and propagating actionable information. using a real-world dataset, crisismmd, created by alam et al. [1] , which is the first publicly available dataset of its kind, we present the case for a novel multimodal system, and through our results report its efficiency, effectiveness, and generalizability. in this section, we briefly discuss the disaster detection techniques of the current literature, along with their strengths and weaknesses. we also highlight how our approach overcomes the issues present in the existing ones, thereby emphasizing the effectiveness of our system for disaster management. chaudhuri et al. [7] examined the images from earthquake-hit urban environments by employing a simple cnn architecture. however, recent research has revealed that often fine-tuning pre-trained architectures for downstream tasks outperform simpler models trained from scratch [18] . we build on this by employing transfer learning with several successful models from the imagenet [9] , and observed significant improvements in the performance of our disaster detection and analysis models, in comparison to a simple cnn model. sreenivasulu et al. [24] investigated microblog text messages for identifying those which were informative, and therefore, could be used for further damage assessment. they employed a convolutional neural network (cnn) for modeling the text classification problem, using the dataset curated by alam et al. [1] . extending on their work on crisismmd, we experimented with several other state-of-the-art architectures and observed that adding recurrent layers improved the text modeling. although researchers in the past have designed and experimented with unimodal disaster assessment systems [2, 3] , realizing that multimodal systems may outperform unimodal frameworks [16] , the focus has now shifted to leveraging information in different media forms for disaster management [20] . in addition to using several different media forms and feature extraction techniques, several researchers have also employed various methods to combine the information obtained from these modalities, to make a final decision [19] . yang et al. [28] developed a multimodal system-madis which leverages both text and image modalities, using hand-crafted features such as tf-idf vectors, and low-level color features. although their contribution was a step towards advancing damage assessment systems, the features used were relatively simple and weak, as opposed to the deep neural network models, where each layer captures complex information about the modality [17] . therefore, we utilize the latent representation of text and image modalities, extracted from their respective deep learning models, as features to our system. another characteristic that is essential for a damage assessment system is generalizability. however, most of the work carried out so far did not discuss this practical perspective. furthermore, to the best of our knowledge, so far no work has been done on developing an end-to-end multimodal damage identification and assessment system. to this end, we propose memis, a multimodal system capable of extracting information from social media, and employs both images and text for identifying damage and its severity in real-time (refer sect. 3). through extensive quantitative experimentation in the leave-one-disaster-out training setting and qualitative analysis, we report the system's efficiency, effectiveness, and generalizability. our results show how combining features from different modalities improves the system's performance over unimodal frameworks. in this section, we describe the different modules of our proposed system in greater detail. the architecture for the system is shown in fig. 1 . the internal methodological details of the individual modules are in the next section. the tweet streaming module uses the twitter streaming api 1 to scrap realtime tweets. as input to the api, the user can enter filtering rules based on the available information like hashtags, keywords, phrases, and location. the module outputs all the tweets that match these defined cases as soon as they are live on social media. multiple rules can be defined to extract tweets for several disasters at the same time. data from any social media platform can be used as input to the proposed framework. however, in this work, we consume disaster-related posts on twitter. furthermore, although the proposed system is explicitly for multimodal tweets having both images and text, we let the streaming module filter both unimodal and multimodal disaster tweets. we discuss in sect. 5.5 how our pipeline can be generalized to process unimodal tweets as well, making it more robust. a large proportion of the tweets obtained using the streaming module may be retweets that have already been processed by the system. therefore, to avoid overheads, we maintain a list of identifiers (ids) of all tweets that have been processed by the system. in case an incoming tweet is a retweet that has already been processed by the system before, we discard it. furthermore, some tweets may also have location or geographic information. this information is also stored to maintain a list of places where relief groups are already providing services currently. if a streamed geo-tagged tweet is from a location where the relief groups are already providing aid, the tweet is not processed further. a substantial number of tweets streamed from the social media platforms are likely to be irrelevant for disaster response and management. furthermore, different relief groups have varying criteria for what is relevant to them for responding to the situation. for instance, a particular relief group could be interested only in reaching out to the injured victims, while another provides resources for infrastructural damages. therefore, for them to make proper use of information from social media platforms, the relevant information must be filtered. we propose two sub-modules for filtering: (i) the first filters the informative tweets, i.e., the tweets that provide information relevant to a disaster, which could be useful to a relief group, (ii) the second filter is specific to the relief group, based on the type of damage response they provide. to demonstrate the system, in this work, we filter tweets that indicate infrastructural damage or physical damage in buildings and other structures. finally, once the relevant tweets have been filtered, we analyze them for the severity of the damage indicated. the system categorizes the severity of infrastructural damage into three levels: high, medium and low. based on the damage severity assessment by the system, the relief group can provide resources and services to a particular location. this information must further be updated in the database storing the information about all the places where the group is providing aid currently. furthermore, although not shown in the system diagram, we must also remove a location from the database once the relief group's activity is over, and it is no longer actively providing service there. this ensures that if there is an incoming request from that location after it was removed from the database, it can be entertained. in this section, we discuss the implementation details of the two main modules of the system for relevance filtering and severity analysis. we begin by describing the data pre-processing required for the multimodal tweets, followed by the deep learning-based models that we use for the modules. image pre-processing: the images are resized to 299 × 299 for the transfer learning model [29] and then normalized in the range [0, 1] across all channels (rgb). text pre-processing: all http urls, retweet headers of the form rt, punctuation marks, and twitter user handles specified as @username are removed. the tweets are then lemmatized and transformed into a stream of tokens that can be fed as input to the models used in the downstream modules. these tokens act as indices to an embedding matrix, which stores the vector representation for tokens corresponding to all the words maintained in the vocabulary. in this work, we use 100 dimensional fasttext word-embeddings [6] , trained on the cri-sismmd dataset [1] that has been used in this work. the system as a whole, however, is independent of the choice of vector representation. for the proposed pipeline, we use recurrent convolutional neural network (rcnn) [14] as the text classification model. it adds a recurrent structure to the convolutional block, thereby capturing contextual information with long term dependencies and the phrases which play a vital role at the same time. furthermore, we use the inception-v3 model [25] , pre-trained on the imagenet dataset [9] for modelling the image modality. the same underlying architectures, for both text and image respectively, are used to filter the tweets that convey useful information regarding the presence of infrastructural damage in the relevance filtering modules, and the analysis of damage in the severity analysis module. therefore, we effectively have three models for each modality: first for filtering the informative tweets, then for those pertaining to the infrastructural damage (or any other category related to the relief group), and finally for assessing the severity of damage present. in this subsection, we describe how we combine the unimodal predictions from the text and image models for different modules. we also discuss in each case about how the system would treat a unimodal text or image only input tweet. gated approach for relevance filtering. for the two modules within relevance filtering, we use a simplistic approach of combining the outputs from the text and image models by using the or function (⊕). technically speaking, we conclude that the combined output is positive if at least one of the unimodal models predicts so. therefore, if a tweet is predicted as informative by either the text, or the image, or both the models, the system predicts the tweet as informative, and it is considered for further processing in the pipeline. similarly, if at least one of the text and the image modality predicts an informative tweet as containing infrastructural damage, the tweet undergoes severity analysis. this simple technique helps avoid missing any tweet that might have even the slightest hint of damage, in either or both the modalities. any false positive can also be easily handled in this approach. if, say, a non-informative tweet is predicted as informative in the first step at relevance filtering, it might still be the case that in the second step, the tweet is predicted as not containing any infrastructural damage. furthermore, in case a tweet is unimodal and has just the text or the image, then the system can take the default prediction of the missing modality as negative (or false for a boolean or function), which is the identity for the or operation. in that case, the prediction based on the available modality will guide the analysis (fig. 2) . attention fusion for severity analysis. the availability of data from different media sources has encouraged researchers to explore and leverage the potential boost in performance by combining unimodal classifiers trained on individual modalities [5, 27] . here, we use attention fusion to combine the feature interpretations from the text and image modalities for the severity analysis module [12, 26] . the idea of attention fusion is to attend particular input features as compared to others while predicting the output class. the features, i.e., the outputs of the penultimate layer or the layer before the softmax, of the text and image models are concatenated. this is followed by a softmax layer to learn the attention weights for each feature dimension, i.e., the attention weight α i for a feature x i is given by: therefore, the input feature after applying the attention weights is, where, i, j ∈ 1, 2, .., p, and p is the total number of dimensions in the multimodal concatenated feature vector. w is the weight matrix learned by the model. this vector of attended features is then used to classify the given multimodal input. with this type of fusion, we can also analyze how the different modalities are interacting with each other employing their attention weights. moving from the relevance filtering to the severity analysis module, we strengthen our fusion technique by using attention mechanism. this is required since human resources are almost always scarce, and it is necessary to correctly assess the requirements at different locations based on the severity of the damage. as opposed to an or function, using attention, we are able to combine the most important information as seen by the different modalities to together analyze the damage severity. in this case, the treatment of unimodal tweets is not that straightforward, since the final prediction using attention fusion occurs after concatenation of the latent feature vectors of the individual modalities. therefore, in case the text or image is missing, we use the unimodal model for the available modality. in other words, we use attention mechanism only when both the modalities are present to analyze damage severity, else we use the unimodal models. recently, several datasets on crisis damage analysis have been released to foster research in the area [21] . in this work, we have used the first multimodal, labeled, publicly available damage related to the twitter dataset, crisismmd, created by alam et al. [1] . it was collected by crawling the blogs posted by users during seven natural disasters, which can be grouped into 4 disaster categories, namely-floods, hurricanes, wildfires and earthquakes. crisismmd introduces three hierarchical tasks: 1. informativeness. this initial task classifies each multimodal post as informative or non-informative. alam et al. define a multimodal post as informative if it serves to be useful in identifying areas where damage has occurred due to disaster. it is therefore a binary classification problem, with the two classes being informative and non-informative. 2. infrastructural damage. the damage in an informative tweet may be of many different kinds [1, 4] . crisismmd identifies several categories for the type of damage, namely-infrastructure and utility damage, vehicle damage, affected individuals, missing or found people, other relevant information, none. alam et al. [1] also noted that the tweets which signify physical damage in structures, where people could be stuck, are especially beneficial for the rescue operation groups to provide aid. out of the above-listed categories, the tweets having infrastructure and utility damage are therefore identified in this task. this again is modelled as a classification problem with two classesinfrastructural and non-infrastructural damage. 3. damage severity analysis. this final task uses the text and image modalities together to analyze the severity of infrastructural damage in a tweet ashigh, medium, or low. we add another label, no-damage, to support the pipeline framework that can handle false positives as well. specifically, if a tweet having no infrastructural damage is predicted as positive, it can be detected here as having no damage. this is modelled as a multi-class classification problem. the individual modules of the proposed pipeline essentially model the above three tasks of crisismmd. specifically, the two relevance filtering modules model the first and the second tasks, respectively, whereas the severity analysis module models the third task (table 1) . to evaluate how well our system can generalize to new disaster categories, we train our models for all the three tasks in a leave-one-disaster-out (lodo) training paradigm. therefore, we train on 3 disaster categories and evaluate the performance on the left-out disaster. to handle the class imbalance, we also used smote [8] with the word embeddings of the training fold samples for linguistic baselines. we used adam optimizer with an initial learning rate of 0.001, the values of β1 and β2 as 0.9 and 0.999, respectively, and a batch size of 64 to train our models. we use f1-score as the metric to compare the model performance. all the models were trained on a geforce gtx 1080 ti gpu with a memory speed of 11 gbps. to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system for multimodal damage assessment on social media, we perform an ablation study, the results for which have been described below. design choices. we tried different statistical and deep learning techniques for modelling text-tf-idf features with svm, naive bayes (nb) and logistic regression (lr); and in the latter category, cnn [13] , hierarchical attention model (hattn), bidirectional lstm (bilstm) and rcnn [14] . as input to the deep learning models, we use 100-dimensional fasttext word embeddings [6] trained on the dataset. by operating at the character n-gram level, fasttext tends to capture the morphological structure well. thus, helping the otherwise out of vocabulary words (such as hash-tags) to share semantically similar embeddings with its component words. as shown in table 2 , the rcnn model performed the best on all three tasks of the relevance filtering and severity analysis modules. specifically, the average lodo f1-scores of rcnn on the three tasks are 0.82, 0.76, and 0.79, respectively. furthermore, the architecture considerably reduces the effect of noise in social media posts [14] . for images, we fine-tuned the vgg-16 [23] , resnet-50 [11] and incep-tionv3 [25] models, pre-trained on the imagenet dataset [9] . we also trained a cnn model from scratch. experimental results in table 2 reveal that incep-tionv3 performed the best, and the average f1-score with lodo training for the three tasks are 0.74, 0.77, and 0.79, respectively. the architecture employs multiple sized filters to get a thick rather than a deep architecture, as very deep networks are prone to over-fitting. such a design makes the network computationally less expensive, which is a prime concern for our system as we want to minimize latency to give quick service to the disaster relief groups. table 3 highlights the results of an ablation study over the best linguistic and vision models, along with the results obtained when the predictions by these individual models are combined as discussed in sect. 4.3. the results for all the modules demonstrate the effectiveness of multimodal damage assessment models. specifically, we observe that for each disaster category in the lodo training paradigm, the f1-score for the multimodal model is always better than or compares with those of the text and image unimodal models. in this section, we analyze some specific samples to understand the shortcomings of using unimodal systems, and to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed multimodal system. table 4 records these sample tweets along with their predictions as given by the different modules. in green are the correct predictions, whereas the incorrect ones are shown in red they have been discussed below in order: 1. the image in the first sample portrays the city landscape from the top, damaged by the calamity. due to the visual noise, the image does not give much information about the intensity of damage present, and therefore, the image model incorrectly predicts the tweet as mildly damaged. on the other hand, the text model can identify the severe damage indicated by phrases like 'hit hard'. combining the two predictions by using attention fusion, therefore, helps in overcoming the unimodal misclassifications. in this tweet, the text uses several keywords, such as 'damaged' and 'earthquake', which misleads the text model in predicting it as severely damaged. however, the image does not hold the same perspective. by combining the feature representations, attention fusion can correctly predict the tweet as having mild damage. the given tweet is informative and therefore, it is considered for damage analysis. however, the text classifier, despite the presence of words like 'killed' and 'destroyed', incorrectly classifies it to the non-infrastructural damage class. the image classifier correctly identifies the presence of damage, and therefore, the overall prediction for the tweet is infrastructural damage, which is correct. furthermore, both the text and image models are unable to identify the severity of damage present, but the proposed system can detect the presence of severe damage using attention fusion. the sample shows how the severity analysis module combines the text and visual cues by identifying and attending to more important features than others. this helps in modelling the dependency between the two modalities, even when both, individually give incorrect predictions. the image in the tweet shows some hurricane destroyed structures, depicting severe damage. however, the text talks about 'raising funds and rebuilding', which does not indicate severe damage. the multimodal system learns to attend the text features more and correctly classifies the sample as having no damage, even though both the individual models predicted incorrectly. furthermore, in this particular example, even by using the or function, the system could not correctly classify it as not having infrastructural damage. yet, the damage severity analysis module identifies this false positive and correctly classifies it. in this section, we discuss some of the practical and deployment aspects of our system, as well as some of its limitations. we simulate an experiment to analyze the computational efficiency of the individual modules in terms of the time they take to process a tweet, i.e., the latency. we are particularly interested in analyzing the relevance filtering and severity analysis modules. we developed a simulator program to act as the tweet streaming module that publishes tweets at different load rates (number of tweets in 1 second) to be processed by the downstream modules. the modules also process the incoming tweets at the same rate. we calculate the average time for processing a tweet by a particular module as the total processing time divided by the total number of tweets used in the experiment. we used 15, 000 multimodal tweets from crisismmd, streamed at varying rates. the performance of the two relevance filtering modules and the severity analysis module as we gradually increase the load rate is shown in the fig. 3 . as a whole, including all the modules, we observed that on an average, the system can process 80 tweets in 1 minute. this experiment was done using an intel i7-8550u cpu having 16 gb ram. one can expect to see an improvement if a gpu is used over a cpu. generalization. the proposed system is also general and robust, especially in three aspects. firstly, the results of our lodo experiments indicate that the system can perform well in case it is used for analyzing new disasters, which were not used for training the system. this makes it suitable for real-world deployment where circumstance with new disaster categories cannot be foreseen. furthermore, we also saw how the two main modules of the system work seamlessly, even when one of the modalities is missing. this ensures that the system can utilize all the information that is available on the media platforms to analyze the disaster. finally, the second module in relevance filtering can be trained to suit the needs of several relief groups that target different types of damage, and therefore, the system is capable of being utilized for many different response activities. limitations. although the proposed system is robust and efficient, some limitations must be considered before it can be used in real-time. firstly, the system is contingent on the credibility i.e., the veracity of the content shared by users on social media platforms. it may so happen that false information is spread by some users to create panic amongst others [15] . in this work, we have not evaluated the content for veracity, and therefore, it will not be able to differentiate such false news media. another aspect that is also critical to all systems that utilize data generated on social media is the socio-economic and geographic bias. specifically, the system will only be able to get information about the areas where people have access to social media, mostly the urban cities, whereas damage in the rural locations may go unnoticed since it did not appear on twitter or any other platform. one way to overcome this is to make use of aerial images, that can provide a top view of such locations as the rural lands. however, this again has a drawback as to utilize aerial images effectively, a bulk load of data would have to be gathered and processed. identifying damage and human casualties in real-time from social media posts is critical to providing prompt and suitable resources and medical attention, to save as many lives as possible. with millions of social media users continuously posting content, an opportunity is present to utilize this data and learn a damage recognition system. in this work, we propose memis, a novel multimodal emergency management information system for identifying and analyzing the level of damage severity in social media posts with the scope for betterment in disaster management and planning. the system leverages both textual and visual cues to automate the process of damage identification and assessment from social media data. our results show how the proposed multimodal system outperforms the state-of-the-art unimodal frameworks. we also report the system's responsiveness through extensive system analysis. the leave-one-disaster-out training setting proves the system is generic and can be deployed for any new unseen disaster. crisismmd: multimodal twitter datasets from natural disasters processing social media images by combining human and machine computing during crises crisisdps: crisis data processing services a twitter tale of three hurricanes: harvey, irma, and maria. arxiv multimodal vehicle detection: fusing 3d-lidar and color camera data enriching word vectors with subword information application of image analytics for disaster response in smart cities smote: synthetic minority over-sampling technique imagenet: a large-scale hierarchical image database how much data do we create every day? the mind-blowing stats everyone should read deep residual learning for image recognition an attention-based decision fusion scheme for multimedia information retrieval convolutional neural networks for sentence classification recurrent convolutional neural networks for text classification from chirps to whistles: discovering eventspecific informative content from twitter damage identification in social media posts using multimodal deep learning handcrafted vs. non-handcrafted features for computer vision classification a survey on transfer learning multimodal deep learning based on multiple correspondence analysis for disaster management a computationally efficient multimodal classification approach of disaster-related twitter images natural disasters detection in social media and satellite imagery: a survey multimodal analysis of user-generated multimedia content very deep convolutional networks for large-scale image recognition detecting informative tweets during disaster using deep neural networks rethinking the inception architecture for computer vision attention is all you need multimodal fusion of eeg and fmri for epilepsy detection madis: a multimedia-aided disaster information integration system for emergency management how transferable are features in deep neural networks? in: advances in neural information processing systems key: cord-324656-6xq5rs0u authors: bellika, johan gustav; hasvold, toralf; hartvigsen, gunnar title: propagation of program control: a tool for distributed disease surveillance date: 2006-04-18 journal: int j med inform doi: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2006.02.007 sha: doc_id: 324656 cord_uid: 6xq5rs0u purpose: the purpose of the study was (1) to identify the requirements for syndromic, disease surveillance and epidemiology systems arising from events such as the sars outbreak in march 2003, and the deliberate spread of bacillus anthracis, or anthrax, in the us in 2001; and (2) to use these specifications as input to the construction of a system intended to meet these requirements. an important goal was to provide information about the diffusion of a communicable disease without being dependent on centralised storage of information about individual patients or revealing patient-identifiable information. methods: the method applied is rooted in the engineering paradigm involving phases of analysis, system specification, design, implementation, and testing. the requirements were established from earlier projects’ conclusions and analysis of disease outbreaks. the requirements were validated by a literature study of syndromic and disease surveillance systems. the system was tested on simulated ehr databases generated from microbiology laboratory data. results: a requirements list that a syndromic and disease surveillance system should meet, and an open source system, “the snow agent system”, has been developed. the snow agent system is a distributed system for monitoring the status of a population's health by distributing processes to, and extracting epidemiological data directly from, the electronic health records (ehr) system in a geographic area. conclusions: syndromic and disease surveillance tools should be able to operate at all levels in the health systems and across national borders. such systems should avoid transferring patient identifiable data, support two-way communications and be able to define and incorporate new and unknown diseases and syndrome definitions that should be reported by the system. the initial tests of the snow agent system shows that it will easily scale to national level in norway. the severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) outbreak in 2003 showed that existing electronic health record (ehr) syndromic or disease surveillance system should therefore serve all levels, from the local healthcare service to the national and global level [2, 3] . syndromic or disease surveillance has two distinct phases: a detection phase, the goal of which must be to detect an outbreak as early as possible, and a monitoring phase, where the actual disease is known and the goal is to prevent the disease from spreading. in the latter case, it is important to detect new cases and to track existing cases of the disease. to enable early detection of disease outbreaks and the monitoring of the diffusion of a disease through the identification of abnormal disease patterns, "sensors" in the form of a software system should be distributed to all the points in the healthcare system where patients present, or where they leave traces of evidence of illness [4] . lober et al. [5] provide a good description of the information sources that can be monitored to detect an outbreak as early as possible. where affected people present may depend on the type of disease and on the organisation of the healthcare service. in norway, which has a system of personal general practitioners (gps) with gatekeeper functions to secondary and tertiary levels of care, patients will typically consult their gp or the casualty clinic in the first instance. patients are only likely to present at a hospital emergency unit if they are acutely ill (for example, if they have been injured in an accident, or referred to the casualty clinic by the gp). a telephone survey in the usa, in new york, showed that 29.1% of persons with influenzalike illness (ili) visited a physician, 21.4% called a physician for advice, 8.8% visited the emergency department, and 3.8% called a nurse or health hotline [6] . the ehr systems used by gps are therefore likely to be very good sources for detecting disease outbreaks in a healthcare context where most people normally consult their gp in the first instance if they get ill. however, using patient data stored in the ehr system is difficult because of the privacy issues involved in exporting data from the ehr systems [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] . the ehr systems used by gps in norway use the international classification of primary care (icpc), which is more specifically symptom-related than icd-9 and icd-10, making it more applicable for syndromic and disease surveillance use. unfortunately, there is no messaging standard such as hl7 available for primary care services or hospitals in norway, which could enable the use of an available open source solution for syndromic or disease surveillance [2, 11, 12] . syndromic or disease surveillance is relatively easy to implement for all well-defined and existing diseases. if a new disease appears, as in the case of sars, or as result of a deliberate spread, disease surveillance may become more difficult. first, we do not have codes for specifying confirmed, probable or possible cases of the new disease. this may easily be solved if it is sufficient merely to update the coding system. how fast such an update can be performed depends on a number of factors: how fast can the coding system be updated, how fast can the new version be disseminated, how fast can the updated code-set be employed, etc. updating a disease classification is normally done very infrequently and the reliability of such classifications is therefore problematic when the goal is to count occurrences of a new disease. the creation of an additional coding system for contagious diseases, which enables quick updating, may provide a solution to this prob-lem. however, this is also problematic, because duplication of coding systems adds to the quantity of information, which must be entered into the ehr systems. basing surveillance of new diseases on existing classification categories is therefore problematic and adds to the complexity of the problem. however, without such disease codes we cannot automatically count the number of cases and get a picture of the geographical diffusion of the disease. another solution may be to use a list of prodromes or early symptoms (syndrome definition) as basis for definitions of possible and probable cases, but we cannot guarantee that a new disease will be covered by such predefined lists of symptoms. conditions with similar symptom patterns may be interpreted as possible or probable cases, thereby polluting the diffusion pattern. in the case of sars, a visit or contact with a person who had visited a geographic area where there were reported cases was a main indicator of probable or possible cases. such conditions are not known beforehand [13] . in the case of sars, the definition of possible and probable cases evolved over the weeks following the outbreak from initially being very vague to becoming a very specific set of symptoms. it may therefore be necessary to distribute new and updated syndrome definitions if local classification of cases based on the syndrome definition is required. this dynamic behaviour of a disease or syndrome definition makes it hard to build software that automatically identifies and distinguishes between possible, probable and confirmed cases. there are at least two approaches to building a surveillance system: a centralised and a distributed approach. all of the systems reported by lober et al. [5] and kun et al. [14] are based on the centralised storage and analysis of data. these systems have been classified as using first-or second-generation architectures for data integration [9] . the real-time outbreak and disease surveillance system (rods) from the university of pittsburgh [12] also uses a centralised approach. the emergency departments covered by the system send hl7 messages containing icd-9 codes in real time to a centralised inference system where outbreaks are detected. when a disease outbreak is detected by rods, the appropriate authorities are informed about the situation. the outbreak detection process is run periodically on the data available to the system. the bio-surveillance, analysis, feedback, evaluation and response (b-safer) system [2, 15] is based on a federated approach involving the open source openemed infrastructure. openemed [16] (formerly known as telemed [17] ) is based on the clinical observation access service (coas) [18] and patient identification data service (pids) [19] corbamed specification of the object management group. b-safer and openemed take a more interoperable approach that demonstrates the value of the federated approach to syndromic surveillance, which makes it possible to view and manage information at several levels ranging from local to regional, national and global levels [2] . we have constructed a system, which we have named "the snow agent system", after the famous dr. john snow. in the snow agent system we also take a distributed approach, where all contributors of data to the system also have the opportunity to access information about the current situation in a geographic area directly from the system. in that sense, the snow agent system is a true "peer-to-peer" net-work among general practitioners. according to lober's classification [9] , this system would be classified as using thirdgeneration data integration. the snow agent system does not depend on the centralised storage of patient information, and may therefore be used by any group of health institutions or general practitioners that want to share data about the health of the population, without exposing any patientsensitive information. it is designed for everyday use by gps who want to share information about contagious diseases and disease outbreaks in their local community. it also avoids the problematic privacy issues, because no patient-identifiable information ever leaves the ehr system. it also supports the requirement of regular usage, which is important in being prepared for an emergency [3, 20] . the snow agent system has a number of other applications besides syndromic or disease surveillance and epidemiology. most important is the extraction, collection and visualisation of a patient's health record from distributed ehr systems for authorised persons. the system also makes it possible to generate statistics about the activity in the health institutions covered by the system. the messaging system used by the snow agent system may also be used for transferring any kind of data between health institutions, which is a valuable spin-off. however, in this paper we focus on the requirements that we argue syndromic, disease surveillance and epidemiology systems may need to meet when facing a local, national or a pandemic outbreak of a communicable disease. some of these requirements also correspond to the requirements for extraction, collection and visualisation of a patient's health record. the paper presents the core principle utilised in building a distributed system for monitoring and interrogating the status of the population's health, and discusses the results of the initial system tests. the work reported here has been conceived within the engineering paradigm. the processes involved in building a system can be divided into the distinctive phases of analysis, system specification, design, implementation and testing. the system described here has gone through several iterations of analysis, system specification, design, implementation, and testing. the requirements listed in the section below are derived from the following sources: (1) a project that evaluated the needs and conditions for access to patient information from geographically distributed electronic health records [21] ; (2) an analysis of the sars outbreak in march 2003; (3) an analysis of a whooping cough outbreak in troms county in north norway in october/november 2003. the requirements were validated and augmented by a literature study of syndromic and disease surveillance systems and solutions directed towards early detections of bio-terrorist attacks [2] [3] [4] [5] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] 20, [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] . the snow agent system is a redesign and a complete reimplementation of the virtual secretary system [41] in terms of the requirements reported here. the initial virtual secretary system was developed at the department of computer science at the university of tromsø. the current version is built on top of the jabber instant messaging and presence system. (see details in section 4, "propagation of program control" below.) to test the system components, we implemented a distributed epidemiology service which extracts epidemiological data from simulated ehr databases. the test data used for constructing the ehr databases is described in the next section. the hardware and software used for system testing is described in section 2.2 below. getting access to production data and system is problematic from both a privacy and resource point of view. we therefore chose to create fictitious ehr databases based on data from the microbiology laboratory at the university hospital of north norway. this laboratory serves a large geographical area and many gp clinics, and therefore has data that is well suited to our needs. the data used in the system test was laboratory test data from the microbiology lab. from the pertussis lab dataset we constructed a very limited ehr database by using a number of assumptions: 1. we assume that it takes 1 day to deliver the test sample to the hospital laboratory. the consultation date with the gp is therefore test received date minus 1 day, and consultation time equals test received time. 2. we assume that all gps have the same behaviour regarding entering data into the electronic patient record (ehr) system. 3. they all create a consultation entry in the ehr system using the date and time values specified above. 4. they all do a test from the posterior nasopharynx using darcon or calcium alginate swabs, which they send to the hospital laboratory and order a "b. pertussis pcr" (bordertella pertussis) laboratory test (icpc2 process code-33 microbiological/immunological test) (code 6232 and 6192 in the lab system). 5. if the lab report is negative, the gp does nothing. if the lab test is positive, the doctor creates a telephone consultation with the patient using "r71 whooping cough" as the diagnosis, and prescribes erythromycin. five days later the patient is assumed not to be contagious to others. (pertussis is most contagious during the first week. three weeks after the onset of symptoms, the patient is seldom contagious.) 6. the "x days since onset" value for the whooping cough patients will probably vary widely. we assume the distribution of x is gaussian. we assume that most people will not see their gp before the second stage of the disease has started (7-14 days after onset of symptoms), when the severe cough with whooping and vomiting begins. this value may also vary with the age and gender of the patient. we assume it is likely that babies under the age of one (below 1 year in the test dataset) probably see their doctor earlier than older children do. we also assume male patients wait longer to see their gp than female patients do. knowledge about an outbreak probably also affects how early a patient sees their gp. we assume that children <2 years see their gp 2-5 days after onset of symptoms, children ≥2, <8 years see their gp 3-7 days after onset, and that children ≥8, <18 years see their gp 5-10 days after onset. female ≥18 years see their gp 10-15 days after onset and male >18 years see their gp 12-20 days after onset. from negative laboratory reports, the following ehr documents were created: first consultation, lab request and lab report. from positive laboratory reports, the following ehr documents were created: first consultation, lab request, lab report, second consultation (telephone), drug prescription (erythromycin). the dataset contained 7939 rows of lab results from 3997 different patients. the dataset contained 6463 negative lab result records and 198 lab result records with "pos" results, 794 patients with test result = "neg" (non-negative blood sample test results) and 194 patients with a "pos" test result. the dataset contained 487 test requesters, including hospital internal requesters. of these test requesters, 459 were from outside the hospital and 28 from inside the hospital. the dataset covered 372 postcodes, 153 postcodes with test result = "neg" (non-negative blood sample test results) and 54 postcodes with test result = "pos". the dataset contained patients from 138 municipalities, where 62 municipalities had test result = "neg" (non-negative blood sample test results) and 25 municipalities with test result = "pos". there were 4528 female patients and 3411 male patients in the data set, including 103 female patients and 95 male patients with a "pos" test result, and 779 female patients and 697 male patients with test result = "neg" (non-negative blood sample test results). in the system test, we only used confirmed cases as test data (test result = "pos"). in addition to the laboratory dataset, a map was needed, on which to plot the data. the map was created from bitmaps made available in the norgeshelsa system [42] . the bitmaps were first converted to svg [43] polygons. then the map polygons were inserted into a mysql database [44] in a convenient format for map generation, and coded with geographical information. in our experiment, we wanted to determine the performance of the system in a close to reality configuration of the system. the results of the analysis described in section 2 above identified the requirements for the tools to be constructed for distributed syndromic or disease surveillance. we have divided the requirements which distributed surveillance and epidemiology systems should fulfil, are shown below. while hospitals can afford a real-time connection to a centralised system such as rods [12] , this solution is not very suitable for all gp clinics. for some gp clinics a more suitable solution may be connection to a shared interconnecting network on a regular basis for reading emails, receiving electronic lab results and electronic hospital discharge letters. this has been the most common solution for gp clinics connected to the north norwegian regional health network. however, the gp clinics are now migrating to an alternative solution, in which they are constantly connected to the health network. to be able to cover all connection alternatives, a distributed solution for epidemiology and healthcare surveillance must support periodic connection to a shared interconnecting network, minimise communication costs, and tolerate narrow bandwidth. coverage is perhaps the most important aspect of a distributed epidemiology and surveillance system. the best approach to achieving coverage is through developing a free and opensource solution that has a minimum of hardware and software costs. the rods [12] system and b-safer [2] system, and several other tools used in outbreak detection, use this approach. the heterogeneity of ehr solutions for general practices is problematic because of the range of different ways in which they store medical data. existing systems may have problems converting information stored in the internal system to a standardised format [9, [47] [48] [49] . they may also lack important information items such as the onset date of a communicable disease. a distributed epidemiology and disease surveillance system would benefit from using a standardised data format internally. a standardised data format will make querying of data easier. a syndromic or disease surveillance system must be automatic (independent of manual data entry for surveillance purposes) to be sustainable [22, 37] . the primary task of healthcare workers is to treat patients, not to perform computer system configuration or system maintenance. however, many institutions in primary care are small, and do not normally employ professional system administrators. in some areas, there is a shortage of available staff with the skills for system administration. a system should therefore ideally require zero configuration and maintenance. this requirement may be hard to meet because most systems need at least a minimum of configuration and maintenance to operate smoothly. this can be difficult to achieve because of the need for manually specifying and ensuring a security policy (see section 4.7 below). a system intended to enable the computation of global epidemiological queries must be asynchronous. it is difficult to anticipate how a globally distributed computation can be performed while a user is waiting for a system response. if we allow participating servers to connect periodically to a shared network, we must ensure that the computations performed on the servers are independent of the computation requester being available and online. asynchronous computations are also more autonomous. a surveillance system must be dynamic in terms of when and how often calculations are performed. the need for reporting frequency may span from running a query every week to several times a day. if an outbreak is detected, the frequency of calculating the diffusion of the disease may need to be increased. the responsibility for switching a gp clinic system into online mode (constantly connected to the shared interconnecting network) may need to be external to the gp clinic. this decision should only be made after a local authentication and authorisation of the request. to be able to meet our objective of not revealing patient identification, and of not being dependent on centralised storage of information about individual patients, the system needs to be distributed. classification of cases into disease or syndrome groups must therefore be done locally, within each ehr sys-tem. many of the syndromic surveillance systems in the usa utilise the 'chief complaints' free text field, and icd-9 or icd-10 codes in the hl7 messages to perform classification of events into syndrome groups. in these systems, the classification of cases against disease and syndrome groups is done centrally, which makes it easy to define and put into use new disease definitions. in norway and several other european countries, the gps use the icpc classification. icpc is more directly related to symptom recording than either icd-9 and icd-10, which makes it more applicable for syndromic and disease surveillance. however, recent travel to affected areas or contact with infected persons is not part of the classification. nor are explicit values of biometrical measurements such as body temperature >38.4 • c. these features were among the criteria for identifying a possible sars case. the most difficult requirement for existing ehr systems to meet is therefore the capacity to incorporate new syndrome definitions that need to be reported. it is important that these syndrome definitions are distributed and automatically incorporated into the ehr system, because of the limitations which paper-based forms have in an outbreak situation, as identified by foldy [13] . for some ehr systems, a new disease or syndrome definition may require that new software is added to the existing ehr system. an example that illustrates this issue is the use of biometrical measurements such as body temperature, pulse, or blood pressure as part of the disease classification. this problem does not apply to all ehr systems, as we will see below. constructing, distributing and updating ehr system software are all time-consuming activities that preferably should not be necessary at the point when an outbreak of a new and dangerous disease is detected. in the case of sars, we saw that the definition of the disease evolved and became more specific over time. as new knowledge about a disease becomes available, it needs to be disseminated to all systems participating in surveillance. this may require that the ehr system is revised to include the new definition of the disease. experience from milwaukee, wisconsin [13] shows that manual routines for updating screening forms are problematic. the "counting" part of a distributed disease surveillance system also needs to be highly dynamic and to allow for inclusion of new disease definitions "on the fly". to be able to monitor the diffusion of a new disease, we argue that we need systems able to include new definitions of diseases in real time. communication in such systems therefore must be two-way, enabling the flow of information about diseases or syndrome definitions in one direction, and information about occurrences and diffusion of the condition in the other direction. the requirements above seem to present a perfect case for mobile code, also known as mobile software agent solutions [50, 51] . many implementations of mobile software agent solutions already exist. mobile software agent technology makes it possible to build highly dynamic distributed systems that support asynchronous and autonomous computations. new functionality in ehr systems may be defined and disseminated as source code to the target systems. however, are mobile-code-based solutions imaginable in healthcare? the risks of mobile code are that it has the capacity to bring down the ehr system in a gp's office due to programming errors, deliberately or unintentionally dump patient data on the internet, take all computing resources away from the gp, etc. even if the source code is certified, it should be asked whether it is appropriate to trust software providers which assert that they "will not be held responsible", if patient data finds its way onto the internet. yes, indeed, it may be difficult to accept mobile-code-based solutions in healthcare information management. is the mobile-code-based solution the only solution able to meet the requirements? mobile code is not suitable, because the physician responsible for the patient data should be able to know exactly what the software that accesses the patient data do. if not, it is unlikely that a physician will authorise the use of such a system. authorisation is closely connected to the tasks performed. if the physician does not know beforehand what the software does, it will be inappropriate to provide authorisation. instead of moving code, we can get some of the flexibility inherent in mobile-code-based approaches by moving program control and data. propagation of program control allows program control to be moved between hosts, in the same manner as mobile code, by transferring a task specification and data between the hosts. the principle is located somewhere between process migration and remote procedure call [52] . instead of letting a process or software agent wander autonomously at its own will between hosts, we ensure that the software agent is under the control of several authorities at all times. these authorities may terminate the software agent at any time. by applying this principle, we gain control over the code executed, but lose some of the flexibility of mobile-code-based solutions. as described, the snow agent system would not appear to provide a simple solution to the hard requirements outlined above. the system may however be used as a dissemination tool for technology that is able to meet the hard requirements above. we will come back to this issue in section 4.8, below. the current version of the snow agent system is a redesign and a complete reimplementation of the virtual secretary system developed at the department of computer science at the university of tromsø [41] in 1993-1998. the first version of the system was initially a mobile-code-based solution for mobile software agents. however, due to the security issues with mobile code [53] [54] [55] , we have moved away from this approach. the current version of the snow agent system does not support mobile code, but allows program control to propagate between hosts using two daemon processes as the mobility enabling system services. these two services are the agent daemon and the mission controller (mc). their tasks and responsibilities are explained in more detail below. the agent daemon and the mission controller are built as extensions to the jabber extensible open source server version 1.4.2 [56] , as shown in fig. 1 . jabber implements the extensible messaging and presence protocol (xmpp) (ietf rfcs) [57, 58] , which allows users to show their presence, chat, and exchange instant messages (xmpp messages). the xmpp messages are expressed using xml. the agent daemon, the mission controller, snow agents and users of the snow agent system also communicate using xmpp messages. the jabber server communicates with jabber clients using the "c2s" (client-to-server) component. jabber talks to other jabber servers using the "s2s" (server-toserver) component. we define an agent as a software entity that performs a series of operations on one or more host computers on behalf of a user. an agent may be mobile and able to migrate or propagate between host computers. an agent has a mission that it seeks to accomplish. this mission is specified by the user (or "mission requester") and is expressed as a mission specification using xml. we use the term "mission agent" for the incarnation of an agent that runs on a single computer. the mission agent is instantiated by an agent daemon that creates the mission agent processes. an agent (or agent mission) may therefore consist of several mission agents that run in parallel on multiple hosts or serially as a relay. a mission agent may also employ sub-missions by sending a mission specification to a mission controller. the agent daemon has more or less the same responsibility as traditional server technology and middleware such as corba, j2ee etc., and can easily be replaced by such technology. the agent daemon manages local resources such as processor, disk, network, and agent applications. its main responsibility is to instantiate, evict and restore mission agents. it negotiates agent missions with remote mcs and performs authentication of instantiated mission agents. in fig. 1 , above, the topmost agent daemon has instantiated two mission agents. these mission agents may have been requested by agent 1 or by a user using a jabber client. the agent daemon also provides information about running mission agents to system administrators, local and remote agents and users if allowed by the local system administrator and each agent. the mission controller functions as an intermediary between the user client and the agent daemon which instantiate the processes based on the specification provided by the user. by performing mission control on behalf of the user, the user becomes independent of the agent execution and the agent becomes more autonomous and independent of the user. the mc knows the set of applications (or mission types) available for each user based on user identity. the mc performs mission control by receiving mission specifications from end users, negotiating mission agent instantiation with remote agent daemons, keeps track of the whereabouts of the agent and notifies the mission requester when a mission is finished, when mission results are available, or if an error occurred. the mission controller performs the migration service for agents executing on a host by receiving the mission specification from the local agent. the mission controller also provides mission control to agents that want to use sub missions on remote hosts. a mission agent is a process that is instantiated by the agent daemon based on a specification received from a mc. the mission specification is expressed in xml and contains the name and version of the application to run, user identity, certificates and signatures proving the identity and authorisation of the user, public keys for encryption of mission results, time and mobility constraints, list of hosts to visit and data used during the mission. the code used for constructing the mission agent must exist on the target host before the mission agent can be instantiated. the system owner needs to consent to supporting the agent type before the agent type can be instantiated. a snow agent has the capability to communicate with any entity using xmpp messages. it can ask either the mission controller or the agent daemon, or both, for a list of local or remote agents. it can participate in a conference with users or other agents or even obtain presence information about local or remote agents and users. the agents may send mission results directly to the mission requester using ordinary xmpp messages with encrypted or unencrypted contents, or to any other valid recipient. the mission controller is able to control two kinds of agent distribution schemes: spread mode missions and jump mode missions, as shown in fig. 2 . in fig. 2 an agent, labelled the "parent agent", requests a sub-mission to three hosts by sending a mission specification to the local mc (not shown). in fig. 2a , the mission specification specifies a spread mode mission, in fig. 2b it specifies a jump mode mission. fig. 3 shows the phases of the mission agent's life cycle on the hosts in a spread mode mission. in spread mode missions, the mission controller forwards the mission specification to the remote agent daemons, indicated by the arrows labelled "1" in fig. 2a . the mission controller negotiates with several remote agent daemons simultaneously. this is illustrated by the negotiation phase in fig. 3 . the agent daemons may respond with a waiting time for execution. this is illustrated by the waiting phase shown in fig. 3 . after the potential waiting phase, the mission agents are instantiated by the agent daemon and the mission specification is transferred (through the connection to the c2s component). this stage is shown as the activation phase in fig. 3 . when the complete mission specification (including the task specification and data) is transferred, the mission agents become operational and start performing their tasks. this is illustrated by the working phase in fig. 3 . mission agents are potentially instantiated on each host covered by the mission and run in parallel until the mission has ended. when a mission agent has finished its task, the mission result can be transferred to the mission requester as illustrated by the arrows labelled "2" in fig. 2a . in jump mode (fig. 2b) , the mission controller sends the mission specification to the agent daemon on the first target host. this is illustrated by the arrow labelled "1" in fig. 2b . a negotiation phase may follow while the agent daemon and the mission controller try to reach an agreement on the mission specification. this is illustrated by the negotiation phase (t1-t2) in fig. 4 . after the negotiation phase, a waiting, activation and working phase may follow, as in the spread mode case. when execution on that site has finished, the mission agent asks the local mission controller for migration service to a new host. this is illustrated by the migration phase (t5-t6) shown in fig. 4 . the local mission controller negotiates the migration with the agent daemon on a remote site by transferring and negotiating the contents of the mission specification. the main mission controller (on the initiating host in fig. 2b ) regains control when the agent has migrated to the new host. the first migration is illustrated by the arrow labelled "2" in fig. 2b . this scheme continues until all hosts in the agent's itinerary have been visited as illustrated by the arrows labelled "3" and "4" in fig. 2b. the users of the snow agent system may use any jabber client that supports sending raw xml messages or specialised plugins that produces the mission specifications. jabber clients such as exodus [59] and jeti [60] provide a plug-in interface. specialised graphical user interfaces (gui) to the snow agent system applications may be implemented as exodus or jeti plug-ins and provide gui for specifying missions and interacting with the snow agent system. the snow agent system clients communicate with mission controllers, create missions, obtain mission results, terminate, restore and remove agent missions, and show incoming or stored mission results. snow agent system missions are not dependent on the jeti or exodus jabber clients. any program or jabber client (or even telnet) capable of communicating with a jabber server may be used to deploy snow agent missions and receive mission results. in this section we describe how the snow agent system meets the requirements stated in section 3 above. the snow agent system may use several connection or organisation models. peer-to-peer model where the snow agent servers must be constantly connected and available for mission requests. each snow agent server is responsible for one gp clinic or patient clinic. specialised snow agent servers, supporting agent types that coordinate large agent missions, may also be used. communication between the servers is done using the standard "s2s" jabber component. in this model, one snow agent server serves as post office for a number of snow agent servers that poll the post office for messages and processing requests. a post office may serve all gps in a county or a single municipality. if the ehr installation needs to be protected by a firewall that blocks incoming connections from the network into the ehr system, the hierarchical model is needed. the snow agent system uses two additional jabber extensions to enable periodical connections to the centralised snow agent server (jabber + snow agent system extensions). in this organisation, the snow agent servers have two distinct roles, the "poller" and the "post office" roles. the "post office" server provides offline storage and relay of xmpp messages on behalf of the "poller" which is the ehr installation. the snow agent server behind the firewall, the poller, must take the initiative to connect to the post office (outgoing connection). when the connection is established, and authentication is performed, the poller will receive all messages and processing requests stored by the post office server while the poller was offline (see fig. 1 above.) the poller may also choose to stay constantly connected to the post office. these two components make it possible to treat a hierarchically organised network as a peerto-peer network. the hierarchical model enables gp clinics protected by firewalls to periodically receive computing requests (in the form of a mission specification). it also satisfies the norwegian data inspectorate's requirements for how small health institutions and gp clinics can connect to a common health network [61] . these requirements state that it should be impossible to open connections from the network into the ehr system protected by the firewall. the connection frequency of the poller component is configurable. if an outbreak is detected, an external authority may request the component to stay permanently connected. the poller component is also capable of connecting to several post office servers, which enables participation in several organisation models or "networks" simultaneously. the snow agent system is designed to be an automatic epidemiology and surveillance service. as long as healthcare workers continue to enter data into the ehr system, the system will be able to collect statistical data, given that the necessary consent for collecting the data is obtained. contents and collection frequency are however dependent on the configuration of the participating hosts. the system can only collect information about diseases explicitly supported by the gps. the reporting frequency depends on the connection model supported by the gp clinics. if all gp clinics are constantly connected (using the peer-to-peer or hierarchical model), then the system supports a high reporting frequency. if the gp clinics connect periodically, then the gp clinic with the lowest connection frequency decides the maximum reporting frequency if 100% coverage and up-to-date data is necessary. the snow agent system epidemiology service does however cache epidemiological data (mission results) locally and on the "post office" servers, which makes it possible to have a higher reporting frequency if the data "freshness" requirement can be relaxed. the computations performed by the mission agents within the snow agent system operate independently of its requester. the requester may however terminate or query the state of the mission agent at any time. the important issue is that the computation is independent of an online mission requester. a snow agent mission may run for days or weeks without the requester being available and online. a snow agent system server capable of connecting to and extracting data from an ehr system needs to operate under a security policy. the security policy states which agent applications may be allowed to run by which user. snow agent applications necessarily generate network traffic and the associated communication costs. such issues may also influence the policy for hosting snow agent applications. in terms of the hard requirements outlined above, it may be necessary to distribute new disease or syndrome definitions to be able to automatically count occurrences of possible, probable and confirmed cases of a new disease. such definitions may be built using archetypes as used in the openehr approach [62] . archetypes are explicit definitions of the structure and content of clinical data and of the constraints on the data. the archetypes may be built by an epidemiologist using an archetype editor. the archetype (disease or syndrome definition) may be read by a form generator component to build a graphical user interface for the input of data according to the structure, contents and constraints in the archetype. the screen representation may also be built manually, as in the proper system [63] , which is based on openemed [16] . the data produced by the gui may be validated by a validator component that uses the archetype definition as input, to ensure that the data stored by the input system is valid. to count cases of a new disease such as sars, specialised archetypes may be used to define concepts like "possible sars", "probable sars" and "confirmed sars" cases. the counting of cases may be done by evaluating stored data against these archetypes. the specialisation mechanisms in the openehr archetype definition language (adl) [64] allow for revision of a disease definition and may ensure that the definition of a new disease evolves without losing the cases defined by earlier definitions of the disease. the snow agent system and the openehr or the proper approaches fit perfectly together because the snow agent system is able to distribute a disease or syndrome definition on a global scale. the definition, represented by explicit archetypes, can be used to: (1) generate gui for data input, (2) validate user-supplied data, and (3) provide definitions or screening forms of concepts such as "possible disease x", "probable disease x" and "confirmed disease x". these definitions may be used by snow agents monitoring the diffusion of disease x in a geographical area. a first version of the system has been developed at the norwegian centre for telemedicine and at the distributed system technology centre (dstc) at the university of queensland, in brisbane, australia. the major parts of the system will be open source and available for download and use from the project web page at http://www.telemed.no/opensource/snow/ or http://mit.cs.uit.no/snow/. to learn more about the strengths, weaknesses and performance of a system based on propagation of program control, we performed a series of tests and experiments to see how fast a distributed epidemiology and surveillance system can provide useful information to the system's users. this question is interesting because we expect that a distributed system based on propagation of program control would need to have considerably slower response time than a centralised system. the reason for this is that such a system is more complex and may involve low-performance servers using low-bandwidth network connections. we also wanted to test the scalability of the mission controller component. this is necessary because mc is the component that handles most of the communication in the system, mainly because of its role as an intermediary between users, agents and agent daemons. the task for the epidemiology system was to plot the pertussis occurrences on an interactive map implemented in svg [43] . the pertussis occurrences were extracted from a set of simulated ehr databases. the ehr databases were generated from microbiology laboratory data as described in section 2.1 above. the map polygons were created from bitmaps made available in the norgeshelsa system [42] and converted to svg polygons. then the map polygons were inserted into a mysql database [44] in a convenient format for map generation and coded with geographical information. the interactive map was based on the vienna example provided by carto.net [65] . in our experiments, we wanted to determine the performance of the system in a close to reality configuration of the system. in norway, this means that we needed to use the hierarchical connection model with one post office server and several gp installations polling for processing requests. we used two mission agents, the "main-epidemio" mission agent, which ran on the post office server, collecting and merging epidemiological data from the participating hosts, and the "ehr-epidemio" agent, which computed on our gp clinics servers. the ehrepidemio mission agent queried the local ehr database for pertussis cases in the given time period, and reported the result to the main-epidemio agent. in our experimental setup, a computer located in tromsø, norway, acted as post office server for the gp clinic snow agent servers. the poller components in the five gp clinic servers were configured with a permanent connection to the post office. this configuration provides the fastest system response possible. (see section 2 above for description of the hardware and software used on the snow agent servers.) in our experiments we first tested the computation time for each participating host. in this case the hosts acted as both post offices and gp clinic servers. the databases and mission specification were identical for all hosts. we measured the amount of time used from receiving the mission or submission request until the mission result notification message was sent by the mission controller. our results are shown in table 2 . the table shows the average processing time from 10 execution runs on each target. in fig. 5 we have plotted the processing time for an identical mission specification on each of our target hosts (shown as points on the line), which shows that the processing time is dependent on processor speed. the time difference between the ehr agent and the main agent (line labelled diff) consists of processing time used to prepare the sub-mission specification and process sub-mission result (from ehr-epidemio agents) and producing the final svg file (113 kb in this case). in our next experiment, we wanted to see how the cost of administrating several target hosts in the sub-mission affected the total mission duration. to test this, we deployed the main-epidemio agent on our post office server. we deployed the ehr-epidemio mission to an increasing number of target hosts, starting with the slowest host first. again, we averaged the processing time over ten consecutive runs. we used the same database and mission specification as in experiment 1. this should make the computation needs for the sub fig. 5 -processing time as a function of processor speed. missions similar to experiment 1. however, the administration cost of the sub mission has increased because the mission specification was transferred over the internet to an increasing number of participating hosts. this is likely to cause an increased delay. in table 3 , we see that the increase of total processing time, compared to that in table 2 , stems from an increase in the ehr mission processing time measured by the mission controller on host 1. we believe the variations in processing time result from varying network conditions, as the participating hosts were spread around the globe. there is an increase in processing needs required by the mission controller to administrate the sub mission, but these processing costs are probably less than the variation in network conditions we experienced. some evidence for this may be found in the standard deviation columns for the processing time. the good news from the second experiment is that the total processing time seems to be minimally affected by increasing the geographical area covered by the epidemiological query. this result is according to our expectations. however, we have only tested the system on a minimal number of hosts. the processing time reported in table 3 shows a wait of about 25 s for getting updated information directly from the ehr systems. a 25-s wait may be a bit too long for busy gps. with the expectation of slow response times in mind, we designed the epidemiology service with a cache. use of the cache reduces the processing time to an average of 1.53 s (over 10 execution runs with s.d. 0.57) when interrogating the server in tromsø, norway from brisbane, australia. by relaxing the requirement for freshness of data, and scheduling periodic epidemiology missions to slow hosts, it seems to be possible to achieve an acceptable response time from the epidemiology service even if servers with 1997 technology (server 6) are used. in fig. 6 we see that the processing times involving six hosts are shorter than those involving five hosts. this effect is explained by the varying bandwidth conditions on the internet during the experiments, and represents a worst-case scenario as intended in the design of the experiment. in fig. 7 we see the uml sequence diagram for an agent mission involving one target ehr host. the diagram shows that the mission controller is the component, which handles most messages. the scalability of the system is therefore partly dependent on the ability of this component to scale when the number of target hosts in a spread mode mission grows. in the second experiment the "service provider host" and the "post office" was the same host, which means that a single mission controller handled both agent missions shown in the sequence diagram. to establish a rough estimate of the scalability of the snow agent server and the mission controller we computed the processing requirements and then performed two tests: (1) message throughput test for the snow agent server and, (2) mission controller and the snow agent server's ability to send outgoing messages. in norway, there are approximately 1800 gp clinics [66] . the distribution of gp clinics by county is shown in table 4 . a hypothetical deployment of the snow agent system could be configured with one snow agent post office server in each county, to which all gp clinics in that county connect. in this configuration, the snow agent post office servers need to be able to support 180-200 ehr system connections simultaneously. the mission specification used in the above experiment is about 1 k of data for the ehr epidemiology mission. for each additional host participating in the mission, the mission specification grows by about 100 b. the output requirement for the mission controller therefore has an n squared growth, or o n 2 in big-oh notation. the output requirement is shown in fig. 8 . the input requirement, shown in fig. 9 , is linear. to achieve this we had to modify the data format returned by the ehr agent running on the ehr hosts, about 2 kb for 15 postcodes for a period of 34 days. the system internal messages shown in fig. 7 , the "ok", "alive" and "finished" status messages require 179, 179 and 180 b, respectively. first, we tested the message throughput of the snow agent server. in this test we used server 2 (a pentium 4, 2.4 ghz processor) and 3 (a pentium iii 800 mhz processor) connected through a 100 mbit/s network. we measured the time taken to transmit messages (4 kb) from a client program on server 3 over the network to server 2 and back to a second client on server 3. because server 3 had a slower processor than server 2, we only observed a 30% load of the snow agent server running on server 2. the throughput in the test stabilised at 0.8 mb/s or 197 messages per second. this throughput may actually reflect the maximum performance of server 3, which both sent and received the messages. in the second test we measured how fast the mission controller and the jabber server were able to output messages. the mission controller on server 2 sent 1000 messages to a client on server 3. we measured the time from when the mission controller sent the message, until the client received the message (using synchronized clocks). because of limitations in the test software, the maximum message size was 4 kb. the test showed that the mission controller can send approximately 400 messages per second. however, a 4 kb mission specification will cover 31 hosts. to cover 200 hosts, the corresponding mission specification will be 20 k, and the total output would need to be 4 mb. in the test, the first 200 messages were sent by server 2 and received on server 3 after 0.6 s. four megabytes was transmitted and received after 1.6 s (output rate 2.5 mb/s). how fast a real system would be able to distribute the mission specifications depends on many parameters, which makes it difficult to predict a realistic estimate for a deployed system. however, our results show that it is realistic to support 200 ehr host per post office server. the theoretical bandwidth of a server connected to a 100 mbit/s network is an output of 12.5 mb/s, which corresponds to a mission with approximately 350 participating hosts. with utilisation of about 70% of the network adaptor, the server can support 295 hosts (8.6 mb mission controller output) in 1 s. for the scalability of the input, it would be beneficial to distribute the activation of the sub mission agents over time, because this will distribute the load on the network and the receiving server over time. the input is also dependent on how many cases of infected persons are identified in a single query. in a situation with many infected persons, the size of the mission result will increase towards the maximum of all postcodes covered by the gp clinic. the realistic capacity requirement of the system can therefore be estimated by counting the number of postcodes covered by the gp clinic and calculating the maximum throughput required for the system. the goal of syndromic and disease surveillance systems is to detect disease outbreaks as early as possible. however, syndromic surveillance systems has not yet proved its capacity to discover outbreaks earlier than traditional surveillance methods [24, 29, 38] . also, the reliance on the ability of "astute clinicians" to detect disease outbreaks in time has been questioned [32] . in the future, syndromic surveillance may be based on data provided by human sensors, as described bẙ arsand et al. [67] . the use of human sensors may enable earlier detection of disease outbreaks than what is possible today. a study of healthcare seeking behaviour in new york showed that in that healthcare context, only 8.8% of patients with ili symptoms attend an emergency department. about 50% of the patients consulted a physician (gp) [6] . because most patients in norway see a gp as their first point of contact with the healthcare system, we should provide the general practitioners with the necessary tools to discover local disease outbreaks. a syndromic surveillance system should therefore include data from the ehr system used by doctors to increase the coverage of the system. in norway this implies using ehr data from gps for surveillance purpose. this is feasible, because norway has close to 100% coverage of ehr systems among gps. most gp surgeries are now becoming connected to the national health network. the current disease surveillance system in norway (msis) [40] is based on reporting both from laboratories and from gps. the gps report the cases on pre-printed paper-based forms provided by the laboratory that performed the diseaseconfirming lab test. in addition to the mandatory reporting undertaken by all gps, approximately 200 gp clinics report weekly, during the winter, about the occurrence of a selection of diseases (including ili). achieving good coverage and high accuracy has been a problem in norway as in other countries [39, [68] [69] [70] [71] and is also limited by the question of cost. previous attempts to report the number of cases of selected diseases on pre-printed postcards proved too expensive to be sustainable. the norwegian institute of public health produces a weekly report (the msis report) containing the number of occurrences at a national and county level. the reporting frequency has been too slow and the geographic level too coarse-grained to be of any practical use in triggering general practitioners' awareness of disease outbreaks. however, the norwegian institute of public health is changing its reporting system to a web-based interface that supports a higher level of geographical granularity. the inclusion of data from a large number of ehr systems used by gps raises the need to rethink what technology might be appropriate for this purpose. current middleware approaches seem to be focused on the idea of a centralised, highly available and powerful server (or pool of servers), which utilises the request reply call semantics for distributing the computations between clients and servers or tiers. in contrast, our need is to have distributed autonomous computations on many ehr system servers, with potentially periodic connectivity and narrow bandwidth that cannot support the request reply semantics for security reasons. from our point of view, a peer-to-peer system among gps within the local communities seems to be the appropriate model on which to base a tool for discovering local disease outbreaks. such a system could also avoid the privacy issues associated with the use of ehr data. however, building a distributed and decentralised system for syndromic or disease surveillance raise new challenges not present in centralised systems such as rods [12] . distributed and decentralised surveillance systems need to address scalability, system maintenance and the need for two-way communication, as outlined in the requirements section above. we have described the requirements for such a system, and found that an ideal surveillance system is one that: (1) enables epidemiologists to define the disease to be monitored, including codes, symptom lists and constraints on biometrical measurements, (2) enables distribution of a disease definition to all systems participating in disease surveillance, (3) enables clinicians to start reporting cases in their normal working tool, the ehr system, immediately after receiving the disease definition, (4) immediately enables collection of statistical data after dissemination of a disease definition, and, (5) supports revision of the disease definition as more knowledge becomes available about the disease. this procedure needs to be achievable in a minimum of time. the human factor should be the main time consumer. the surveillance system needs to support flexible connection methods, enabling automatic, independent and dynamic reporting mechanisms. it must support asynchronous (and autonomous) computations and must provide adequate security mechanisms. syndromic and disease surveillance systems traditionally report events. an event is typically a positive laboratory test that confirms a diagnosis. in our system, it seems more natural to report the number of cases affected by the disease or syndrome classification used. this is natural because the ehr system is constantly updated with new electronic lab reports. it also provides the opportunity to review the development of cases retrospectively, because historical data is also available in the ehr system. the real-time outbreak and disease surveillance system (rods) [12] uses a centralised approach to perform syndromic surveillance. an interesting feature of rods is the use of a health system resident component (hsrc) that runs within the health institutions' firewall. this component has much more data available because it can operate on patient-identifiable clinical data. hsrc is able to link and use laboratory and radiology data in its inference and is able to achieve much higher specificity of patient categorization through access to more information. these benefits also apply to our system. the sars outbreak showed that a disease outbreak can easily cross borders. this represents a problem when an outbreak occurs on the border between two disease surveillance systems. the use of a common disease surveillance system can help to overcome such problems. the decentralised approach used in the snow agent system has the potential to solve the problem of cross-border disease surveillance because it removes the need to export patient related information to a centralised storage for processing. from our survey of available literature, we have not discovered any systems that are able to update the coding system or symptom list as a feature of the disease surveillance system. however, the centralised inference and detection system could easily be updated to use new diagnosis codes or syndrome definitions. in distributed and decentralised surveillance systems, this issue can be solved by enabling two-way communication, passing disease or syndrome definitions in one direction and data about the distribution of cases in the other direction. while rods is a monitoring system that feeds data from many sources into a centralised inference system, the snow agent system is more a "peer-to-peer" approach aimed at helping clinicians to discover ongoing outbreaks in the local community and aiding the diagnosis process on a daily basis. we believe such use of the system will have a positive effect on data quality in primary care. the snow agent system approach has the advantage that it is capable of accessing high quality data that precedes disease outbreak detection in a laboratory by many hours. the time advantage may sometimes be as much as a day, depending on geography and sample delivery routines. if the system counts the occurrences of prodromes or even just the rate of lab test requests, it can raise the awareness of local gps about an outbreak long before the laboratory sees enough cases to issue an alarm. the snow agent system also has the advantage that it can count cases that are diagnosed using epidemiological techniques, for instance in situations where a whole family is affected. such cases may never be confirmed by sending a sample to a laboratory. these two features are unique advantages using the peer-to-peer approach between gps. our performance test shows that the system will scale to national level in norway. the test shows that a normal desktop computer running the linux operating system can distribute a computing request to all gp clinics within any norwegian county within a reasonable time. the results from the epidemiology processes running on all ehr system installations can be merged, and may be depicted on an interactive map by an end user anywhere, using a normal web browser with a svg viewer component installed. if caching of computing results is performed, the response time may be reduced dramatically. by scheduling epidemiological queries at regular intervals, it is possible to achieve an acceptable level of responsiveness by the system. the asynchronous nature of the system, together with the autonomy of the mobile agents, makes it possible to compensate for the use of old servers with narrow bandwidth and periodic connectivity. we believe that the system can scale further, by adding more levels to the hierarchical organisation implemented by the system. the mission controller component is the critical component regarding the scalability of the system. the jabber server supports several server configurations that enable the server to handle many server connections. this feature makes it possible to scale up the processing capacity of a snow agent server dramatically. the snow agent system's epidemiology service is not yet sufficiently developed to qualify as an ideal surveillance system. however, it has some benefits over existing approaches. most important, it avoids the privacy problems associated with using ehr data. the two-way communication supported by the snow agent system's epidemiology service makes it possible to update the computer systems that feed the disease surveillance system with new kinds of data. the system is designed for everyday use by general practitioners who need epidemiological information in their daily work, which is beneficial for surveillance systems [3] . the system may also be used as a feeder system to a centralised outbreak detection system such as rods. in this paper we have presented the requirements that we propose distributed surveillance and epidemiology systems must meet when facing a local, national or a pandemic outbreak of a communicable disease. the surveillance systems should make use of the ehr systems used by gp clinics, because most patients consult their gp as the first point of contact with the health service when they get ill. from our point of view, such systems should be distributed and decentralised to provide doctors with an appropriate tool to discover local disease outbreaks, and to avoid the associated privacy issues. such a system must support two-way communication, to enable the participating ehr systems to incorporate new disease or syndrome definitions. the snow agent system makes it possible to collect epidemiological data directly from the ehr system in a geographical area based on a task specification. the core principle utilised to achieve this is propagation of program control, which lets computing processes or programs migrate between hosts in the same manner as a mobile-code-based system. in our approach, we do not move code, because of the security and authorisation problems inherent in mobile-code-based systems. instead, we propagate program control by moving a task specification and data between the hosts. we have tested our approach in realistic settings to learn about the efficiency and scalability of a system based on the propagation of program control principle. in our test, we placed servers around the globe. the results of our test show little or no performance penalty associated with covering a larger geographical area in an epidemiology query. the response time of the slowest server limits the response time of the epidemiological service. by applying a cache, we reduced the response time of the system from about 25-1.5 s, to produce an interactive map containing the epidemiological data. our scalability tests indicate that the system can easily scale to national level in norway. we would like to thank gudleif arnosen at the microbiology laboratory at the university hospital of north norway, for providing lab data for our system; ivar ness for donating time, bandwidth and processing cycles on his server in spain to the project; andreas neumann for letting us use the javascript source code from the vienna svg map example; and dstc, in particular dr. hoylen sue and the titanium project members, for all their help and technological insight which they have so willingly shared. we are also very grateful for the help from hilde pettersen and eva henriksen with proofreading of this manuscript. what was known before the study: the utility of syndromic surveillance systems, compared to traditional surveillance systems, has so far not been demonstrated [24, 29, 38] . syndromic surveillance systems utilise many different information sources and data from emergency departments is an important one. a telephone survey from new york showed that about 50% of patients with influenza like illness consult a physician, about 9% visit an emergency department and about 4% called a nurse or a health hotline [6] . however, very few of these systems utilise data from general practitioners, gpsurv from auckland, new zealand is one exception [72] . syndromic and disease surveillance systems should complement, rather than replace the "astute clinician" [26, 30] . protection of patient privacy is an important issue to address for disease surveillance systems [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] . what this study contributes: the propagation of program control principle provides a platform for mobile autonomous agent solutions that can be applied in the healthcare environment. this platform have been used to build an epidemiology service that may be expanded to include a distributed syndromic and/or disease surveillance system. distributed syndromic and/or disease surveillance systems can be implemented without being dependent of transferring patient identifiable data which eliminates the privacy issue. a surveillance system built using the propagation of program control principle can easily scale to national level in norway and is able to provide up to date data from the participating source systems within 25 s, even if server technology from 1997 is used. distributed syndromic and/or disease surveillance systems should provide two-way communication to enable distribution and update of syndrome and disease definitions for use by the ehr systems contributing data. investigating public health emergency response information system initiatives in china setting standards for improved syndromic surveillance linking better surveillance to better outcomes value of icd-9 coded chief complaints for detection of epidemics roundtable on bioterrorism detection: information system-based surveillance how many illnesses does one emergency department visit represent? using a population-based telephone survey to estimate the syndromic multiplier review of the 2003 national syndromic surveillance conference-lessons learned and questions to be answered health information privacy and syndromic surveillance systems information system architectures for syndromic surveillance biosense-a national initiative for early detection and quantification of public health emergencies removing a barrier to computer-based outbreak and disease surveillance-the rods open source project technical description of rods: a real-time public health surveillance system sars surveillance project-internet-enabled multiregion surveillance for rapidly emerging disease building dual-or multiple-use infrastructures is the task at hand for state and local health departments results from the fielding of the bio-surveillance analysis, feedback, evaluation and response (b-safer) system in albuquerque an international collaboratory based on virtual patient records on site: past and future emergency response information systems prerequisites for developing and deploying a system for ubiquitous access to patient information what is syndromic surveillance? national bioterrorism syndromic surveillance demonstration program if syndromic surveillance is the answer, what is the question? knowledge-based bioterrorism surveillance on the threshold information technology in the age of emergency public health response. the framework for an integrated disease surveillance system for rapid detection, tracking, and managing of public health threats the economic impact of a bioterrorist attack: are prevention and postattack intervention programs justifiable? emerg syndromic surveillance and bioterrorism-related epidemics disease outbreak detection system using syndromic data in the greater washington dc area using automated medical records for rapid identification of illness syndromes (syndromic surveillance): the example of lower respiratory infection syndromic surveillance syndromic surveillance systems hospital admissions syndromic surveillance-connecticut syndromic surveillance at hospital emergency departments-southeastern virginia the informatics response in disaster, terrorism, and war three years of emergency department gastrointestinal syndromic surveillance in new york city: what have we found? a system for electronic disease reporting and management. determining the extent/spread of problems and minimizing consequences through rapid reporting and dissemination of critical information the norwegian institute of public health. surveillance of communicable diseases in norway the virtual library secretary-a user model based software agent the norwegian institute of public health scalable vector graphics (svg) specification w3c recommendation bogomips mini-howto importing clinical data into electronic health records: lessons learnt from the first australian gehr trials seda: sentrale data fra allmennlegetjenesten -teknisk dokumentasjon sentrale data fra allmennlegetjenesten. sluttrapport fra pilotprosjektet an introduction to the tacoma distributed system version 1.0 mobile agents implementing remote procedure calls security in the ajanta mobile agent system mole concepts of a mobile agent system mobile agents: are they a good idea? jabber software foundation. jabber technology overview exodus -escape from proprietary im systen the data inspectorate. veiledning i informasjonssikkerhet for kommuner og fylker ehr design principles archetypes: the proper way archetype definition language carto:net using blood glucose data as an indicator for epidemic disease outbreaks timeliness of case reporting in the swedish statutory surveillance of communicable diseases notification of infectious diseases by general practitioners: a quantitative and qualitative study mandatory notification of communicable diseases: what physicians think reasons for under-reporting of notifiable conditions evaluation of an electronic general-practitioner-based syndromic surveillance system-auckland this work has been funded by the norwegian research council, grant no. 142162/320 and by the norwegian centre for telemedicine. many individuals have contributed to its realisation, and their help is very much appreciated. in particular, key: cord-314275-twjaq5do authors: diwekar, u.; amekudzi-kennedy, a.; bakshi, b.; baumgartner, r.; boumans, r.; burger, p.; cabezas, h.; egler, m.; farley, j.; fath, b.; gleason, t.; huang, y.; karunanithi, a.; khanna, v.; mangan, a.; mayer, a.l.; mukherjee, r.; mullally, g.; rico-ramirez, v.; shonnard, d.; svanström, m.; theis, t. title: a perspective on the role of uncertainty in sustainability science and engineering date: 2020-09-09 journal: resour conserv recycl doi: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105140 sha: doc_id: 314275 cord_uid: twjaq5do the trans-atlantic research and development interchange on sustainability workshop (tardis) is a meeting on scientific topics related to sustainability. the 2019 workshop theme was "on the role of uncertainty in managing the earth for global sustainability." this paper presents the perspectives on this topic derived from talks and discussions at the 2019 tardis workshop. there are four kinds of uncertainties encountered in sustainability ranging from clear enough futures to true surprises. the current state-of-the-art in assessing and mitigating these uncertainties is discussed. the demands of humans on the earth have grown considerably with the human population and the increase in per capita consumption of all kinds (fuels and energy, food, water, minerals, etc.). consider that while the earth and its energy budget from the sun have remained roughly constant over the past 4000 years, the human population has risen from approximately 7 million around 4000 bce to more than 7 billion (worldmeters, 2020) at present. the value of the global economic activity, as measured by the world gross product, a proxy for consumption, had risen from approximately us$1 billion around 4000 bce to about us$78 trillion (wikipedia 2020; worldbank 2015) by 2014, both in 1990 international us dollars. about 94% of the population increase and almost 100% of the rise in the world gross product have happened since 1500 bce. these conditions create an unprecedented planet-wide situation where humanity has the imperative of managing the earth within very tight constraints with little margin for error. this requires that humans be able to: (1) accurately assess the current condition of the earth, (2) forecast future trends as accurately as possible, and (3) develop effective management strategies. uncertainty poses significant difficulties for all three efforts. the concept of sustainability is closely related to that of sustainable development, but the two are different. sustainability is about ensuring that the earth can meet the material and energy needs to support complex systems including humanity over the long term. this has economic dimensions because the rate of resource consumption heavily depends on economics, and it has social dimensions because the ultimate goal is to support human society. sustainable development provides a vision of how human society could develop sustainably, and it adds a stronger focus on social dimensions such as intergenerational equity. sustainability is, therefore, a basic concept oriented to making the survival of civilized human existence on earth feasible. the focus of tardis is mostly on sustainability. however, we did not attempt to create our own formal definition of sustainability. we merely used the aforementioned framework as a working definition of sustainability to focus on discussions. the trans-atlantic research and development interchange on sustainability (tardis) workshop is a three-day study session on scientific topics related to sustainability, stimulated by presentations, and discussion. the workshop involves participants from the united states, europe, and other parts of the world in the multidisciplinary field of sustainability. the 2019 tardis group included the participation of experts from engineering, mathematical sciences, physics, ecology, economics, decision sciences, and political science fields. the theme of the 2019 workshop was "on the role of uncertainty in managing the earth for global sustainability." this paper presents the summary perspectives on this topic derived from talks and discussions at the 2019 tardis. sustainability and uncertainty: the problems involved in understanding, modeling, assessing, and managing for sustainability, fall under what rittel and weber (1973) call "wicked problems". for example, a recent study by the world bank (damania et al., 2019; steffen et al., 2015) that focuses on threats to global water quality concludes that the uncontrolled release of reactive nitrogen (nr) into rivers, lakes, and estuaries presents us with the "largest global externality" that threatens human health and ecosystem stability at a scale that is not fully recognized by the governments of the world. as often happens with such "wicked" problems, solutions are confounded by interconnected positive and negative impacts that are difficult or impossible to unravel. for instance, reactive nitrogen in the environment is intertwined with several of the un sustainable development goals: zero hunger (2), good health and well-being (3), clean water and sanitation (6), affordable and clean energy (7), industry, innovation, and infrastructure (9), sustainable cities and communities (11), responsible consumption and production (12), climate action (13), life below water (14), and life on land (15). actions taken to address the role of nr in any one of these goals may exacerbate nrrelated impacts in the others. multiple stakeholders and their conflicting perspectives also generate wicked sustainability-related problems. one of the major challenges in the sustainability system, which results in wicked problems is the problem of uncertainties. some examples of uncertainties in sustainability include definition and quantification of various objectives, impact assessment methods and models, forecasting future, and unexpected events. in a broad sense, uncertainty may be defined simply as limited knowledge about future, past, or current events (walker et al., 2003) . fig. 1 shows four different quadrants of information leading to uncertainty. this diagram is the focal point in business strategy and planning literature (marshall et al., 2019) . sustainability systems and issues extend to all four quadrants of information, whether the problem is of community sustainability, manufacturing sustainability, sustainable economics, regional or global sustainability, as described in the various sections below. the paper is divided into the following sections. section 2 presents types of uncertainties followed by a section on systemic risks, precautionary principle, and normative risks. section 4 talks about the effect of uncertainties on the environmental policy, followed by a section related to sustainable economics and uncertainty. section 6 is devoted to community sustainability and uncertainty. sustainable manufacturing and sustainability assessment sections follow that. decision making under deep uncertainty is section 9, followed by global sustainability and stochastic processes. section 11 is devoted to the communication of uncertainties in sustainability education. the summary section is last. the literature related to uncertainty defines two kinds of uncertainties, namely epistemic uncertainty and aleatory uncertainty. epistemic uncertainty is a lack of knowledge on underlying fundamentals and characterized by alternative models. aleatory uncertainty refers to the inherent uncertainty due to the probabilistic variability. these uncertainties are characterized by a probability distribution. sustainability problems are difficult because they involve deep uncertainties. a recent open book on decision making under deep uncertainty divides uncertainties into four types. • level 1 uncertainty represents situations in which one admits that one is not absolutely certain, but one does not see the need for or is not able to measure the degree of uncertainty in any explicit way (hillier and lieberman 2001) . these are generally short-term uncertainties (clear enough futures) where historical data can be used to predict the future. sensitivity analysis can be used to address these types of uncertainties. • level 2 uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, probability bounds, interval methods, or fuzzy information. these uncertainties are useful where system models are reasonably closer to the real world. most of the manufacturing uncertainties fall into these categories. • level 1 and 2 uncertainties are observed for known unknowns. according to knight (1921) , levels 1 and 2 uncertainties come under the category of "risks" and are often associated with optimality, unlike levels 3 & 4, which involve "robustness." • level 3 uncertainties involve situations in which there are a limited set of plausible futures, system models, outcomes, or weights, and types of information: known-knowns are known to exist, and information is available, known-unknowns are known to exist, but no information is available, unknown-knowns are not included in the analysis but the information is possible if they did, and unknown-unknowns are not known to exist, and no information is available if they did (marshall et al., 2019) . probabilities cannot be assigned to them-so the tools of neither level 1 nor level 2 are appropriate. in these cases, traditional scenario analysis is usually used. long-term assessment of sustainability (also comes under level 4 uncertainty) comes under this category. • level 4 uncertainty represents the deepest level of recognized uncertainty. this is called deep uncertainty. there are two types of deep uncertainties: the uncertainty where there are many possible futures and outcomes, and there are unknown futures and unknown outcomes. deep uncertainties are related to decreasing confidence in our ability to anticipate correctly future technological, economic, and social developments, future changes in the system we are trying to improve, or the multiplicity and time-varying preferences of stakeholders regarding the system's outcomes, or handling low probability but high impact events (black swans (taleb 2010) ) like a natural disaster, a pandemic, a financial crisis, a terrorist attack, or truly novel events for which there is no historical experience. (unknown knowns and unknown unknowns, true surprises). systemic risk, ontological uncertainty, and time-dependent uncertainties come under this category of level 4 uncertainty. dealing with these kinds of uncertainties involve monitoring the present and adaptations over time. the precautionary principle and options theory are two widely used methods to deal with these uncertainties. uncertainty, as well as the precautionary principle, take a prominent place within the scientific debate on sustainable development in general and on managing systemic risks specifically (renn 2008; becker 2014) . against the backdrop of the many meanings of systemic risks within the scientific discourse, we argue that the precautionary principle is only a negative or threshold criterion and that it is worthwhile to add positive normative criteria to inform management of systemic risks. however, we introduce the concept of normative uncertainty adding up to epistemic uncertainty in dealing with systemic risk. systemic risks are a relatively new type of risk concept (renn, 2016) . according to predominant understanding, the occurrence of an event would not simply lead to harm but to a breakdown of the system (kaufman and scott 2003; smaga, 2014) . in other words, the system would go beyond its resilience level and would no longer be able to execute its functions. with some probability the "event" climate change can, for example, lead to a breakdown of the earth's life-supporting functions; or a global financial crisis can be accompanied by major banks going bankrupt which in turn would severely undermine their functions supporting the economy potentially leading to a breakdown of the economy. such risks display new characteristics in comparison to traditional risks such as droughts, hailstorms, a car traveling, or smoking. whereas the latter are computable, systemic risks are not. it is neither possible to estimate the probability of occurrence of the triggering events, nor is it possible to assess the related harm (and to bring that into a cost-benefit analysis). these come under level 3 and level 4 types of uncertainties. risk assessments are always accompanied by epistemic uncertainties. the results of measuring frequencies of events or modeling the complexity of systems together with assessing potential harm are normally given within ranges expressing possible limitations. however, uncertainties related to systemic risks do not express a given range of likelihood. they represent the mode "we do not know," due to its character as not being computable. we can, for example, not give a reasonable likelihood estimation for whether the financial crisis in 2008 and the thread of big banks potentially collapsing would have led to a breakdown of the economic system. the issues are just too complex to come up with estimations. the possibility that it could and would bring about a huge amount of harm by a breakdown of the economy was seen as sufficiently reasonable to take action. the motivating principle, according to actions, is known as the precautionary principle (gardiner 2006) . it does not claim that you should not take risks. it rather says (in case of the financial crisis in 2008): we do not know whether the collapse of system-relevant banks will lead to a breakdown of the economic system. however, the level of risk resulting from such a breakdown is sufficient to intervene and not to let those banks go bankrupt. the precautionary principle is an action-guiding principle where the occurrence of events could have the effect that a threshold (or resilience) level of a major system supporting societal functions will trespass. however, the precautionary principle only indicates not to take a specific path. in contrast, it cannot inform positively decision making for "doing x," e.g., deciding that saving exposed banks whose activities brought about the crisis is the best decision to take. additional criteria are needed in order to make a positive decision. according to relevant theories in political economy and philosophy (renn 2009; stirling 2007; kaul and mendoza 2003) , public decisions should (ideally) primarily be motivated by taking public or common goods as well as the overall goal of human well-being into account. hence, the negatively oriented precautionary principle should be accompanied by a positive criterion on public goods and human wellbeing. together they build a sound basis for decision making regarding systemic risks, nowadays prominently expressed by the agenda 2030 and its 17 sustainable development goals. when tackling systemic risks from a perspective of societal goals, alternative options to deal with, as well as different outcomes of the crisis, come into the picture. specifically, it substantiates and rationalizes so-called 'pro-active intervention strategies' to systemic risks, such as adaptation and transformation (irgc 2018), scenario discovery approach (bryant and lampert, 2010) , etc. however, although such a positive approach offers a productive evaluative basis for assessing first what systemic risks are and what goods have to be taken into account, in strategies for dealing with (avoiding) systemic risks, this opens up a broad space of interpretation. this happens because there is not one single understanding of what constitutes public goods or belongs to human well-being. this points to another field of uncertainties, i.e., normative uncertainty (e.g., mazouz 2003) . it is by far not the case that anything goes when talking about justice or sustainable development. philosophy, social sciences, and economics provide a number of well-established approaches to frame justice (cf. miller 2017). we have a variety of options producing a range of normative claims and assessments (cf. burger 2018 for types of sustainability conceptions). as we have to learn to deal with epistemic uncertainties, the sciences additionally need to improve their understanding of normative uncertainties when dealing with systemic risks like climate change. lastly, in this overview of uncertainty types, we consider the role of ontological uncertainty (nielsen and ulanowicz 2011) , which refers to the emergence of new unpredictable or un-"pre-statable" types (kauffman 2019). any system that exhibits requisite complexity will have novel behaviors from the interactions of the agents within the system. for example, simple combinatorics tells us that the interactions of 80 distinguishable components will offer approximately 80! =~7 × 10, 118 possible configurations. yet, given the age of the universe, estimates are that there have only been~10, 110 quantum level events (elsasser and staude 1978) . in other words, there will be surprise events and other events that will never materialize. this level of uncertainty, which challenges the old school determinism, has manifest itself in many 20th century theories as given in table 1 (examples are taken from nielsen et al., 2020, p. 30) . the realization of ontic uncertainty is not inherently negatively consequential, but rather has benefits as it implies ontic openness that potentially brings new opportunities to any complex adaptive system, including humans striving for sustainable development. of course, this also reinforces the importance of applying the precautionary principle as prudent guidance into an unknown future. as in most areas of policy, environmental and sustainability policy must often contend with scientific uncertainty when prescribing actions and identifying targets (bradshaw and borchers 2000) . depending on the problem, scientific uncertainties in policymaking can be of any one of the four types described earlier. policymakers often grant implementing agencies considerable discretion to modify their actions in response to new information or understandings, but there are limits to how much discretion can be accommodated before policies must be rewritten (woods and morey 2008; lind-riehl et al., 2016) . at some point, when the language and concepts used in laws, regulations, and policies no longer relate to the state of knowledge in the field, these prescriptions must be amended. the us endangered species act or esa is one such example of science moving beyond the legal terminology. as implied by its title, the esa is a law that protects species from extinction. enacted in 1973, the esa is one of the most stringent environmental laws in the world, saving thousands of species from extinction and enabling the recovery of dozens of well-known and unique species (suckling et al., 2016) . when faced with a species in decline, the two enforcement agencies, the us fish and wildlife service and the national marine fisheries service, must first determine whether the species meets the esa's criteria for being listable. one of these criteria includes the distinctiveness of that species, subspecies, or population from other more common species. advancements in genetic technology and taxonomic science have complicated the boundaries between species, making it more difficult to use the esa to protect biodiversity from threats faced by land-use change, pollution, invasive species, and climate change (ritchie et al., 2018 ). an increasing number of lawsuits and petitions call on wildlife agencies to delist or downlist species from the esa, based on new information that calls the species' distinctiveness into question. one such example is the coastal california gnatcatcher (polioptila californica), a small, nonmigratory songbird that inhabits the rapidly urbanizing region of southern california and northern baja california peninsula in mexico (mayer, forthcoming) . the protection of this northern-most subspecies of california gnatcatcher has been constantly challenged by development industries in california, mainly over the scientific uncertainty of its distinctiveness from other subspecies. although ecological and morphological evidence continues to indicate that the coastal california gnatcatcher is substantially different from california gnatcatchers further south in mexico, genetic evidence has been more equivocal and contentious (mccormack and maley 2015; patten 2015; zink et al., 2013 zink et al., , 2016 . difficulties in determining the clarity of boundaries between species and subspecies are not unique to the california gnatcatcher, but rather are inherent in the concept of a species (zachos 2018) . species are continuously evolving over time and can and do hybridize with closely related species as they evolve, blurring their genetic and morphological distinctiveness. the difficulty of species delineation, and ongoing disagreements over concepts and methods among scientists, translates into difficulty for policy decision-making, even with considerable discretion for implementing agencies. insight into the roles of ambiguity, uncertainty, and discretion in the interaction between the scientific process and policy process can improve policy implementation and outcomes (doremus 1997; bradshaw and borchers 2000; cairney et al., 2016; wilhere 2017) . perhaps the first work applying financial decision-making models to environmental issues relevant to sustainability was by weisbrod (1964) . weisbrod considered the case of the sequoia national park, for which demand is infrequent and uncertain (i.e., many people consider going, but few actually go). he imagines a private owner who is able to price discriminate in charging entrance fees and thus capture the entire consumer surplus for himself. even under these conditions, however, entrance fees do not cover the full costs of running the park. ignoring all non-recreation benefits of the ecosystem in question, a rational owner might choose to irreversibly convert the area to other more profitable uses (e.g., chop down the forests and build condominiums). however, when demand is infrequent and uncertain, there is a certain value people give to retaining the option to visit the park even if they never do so. this value is a pure public good: as long as the park is there, the option itself is non-excludable and non-rival, and there are no non-coercive mechanisms for charging consumers for this option value. if enough people benefit from this option value, it would be socially efficient to keep the park open even if privately inefficient. the solution may be public ownership or subsidies. cicchetti and freeman (1971) have shown that weisbrod's option value will be positive when there is uncertainty in either demand or supply, and it has the same effect on decisions as risk aversion. arrow and fischer (1974) examined a slightly different situation, in which there is an opportunity to irreversibly convert an ecosystem to some other use, such as damming a river or converting a forest to housing developments. they look at the situation in which decisions this period change the expected values of conversion and/or non-conversion in the next period. for example, society might learn about a valuable service provided by the ecosystem, or a new medicinal plant, if it is left unconverted. they concluded that these unknown values created a quasi-option value that again increases the value of avoiding irreversible outcomes, acting the same as risk aversion. conrad (1980) later showed that the quasi-option value is equivalent to the expected value of information, while the option value is equivalent to the expected value of perfect information. however, in financial decision making, and in the models described above, unknown outcomes are of a very restricted variety: possible outcomes are known, as are the probabilities of each. knight (1921) referred to this type of unknown outcome as a risk. in the highly complex ecological-economic systems that humans want to sustain, it is often impossible to make objective assessments of the probabilities of different outcomes, and therefore impossible to model expected values. in many cases, we cannot even guess at possible outcomes. for example, human activities change ecosystems in ways that generate new evolutionary pressures on the species within them. humans react to their self-created changes through cultural evolution, including the development of new technologies. both evolution and technological advances can lead to entirely unpredictable outcomes, in which not even possible outcomes can be objectively assessed. this type of unknown outcome has been referred to as surprise (schneider et al., 1998; casti, 1994; faber et al., 1992; kates, 1985) novelty (faber and proops,1998) and ignorance (faber et al., 1992; daly and farley, 2003) . how to deal with ignorance and uncertainty in modeling sustainability is a serious challenge. this is within the area of deep uncertainty. in reality, due to the aforementioned uncertainties, we suffer table 1 examples of uncertainty and indeterminacy in the modern understanding of nature (nielsen et al., 2020) . creative destruction as part of the cyclic process jørgensen heisenberg extended to ecosystems kauffman continuous evolution into the possible adjacent states u. diwekar, et al. resources, conservation & recycling 164 (2021) 105140 profound ignorance about the most serious problems we currently face in our rapidly evolving system. it is a characteristic of complex systems that if we ramp up the value of a critical parameter beyond some critical point, the system can "flip" into an alternate regime about which we know very little and from which it can be difficult or impossible to return to the previous state (hughes et al., 2013; lenton et al., 2008; lenton and williams, 2013; pearce, 2007) . we are currently ramping up the value of innumerable critical parameters, both ecological and economic, simultaneously. climate change, biodiversity loss, nutrient flows, and land-use change are a few of the most egregious ecological examples (rockstrom et al., 2009; steffen et al., 2015) . financial systems regularly experience explosive growth followed by crisis. stocks are now held on average for some 30 s, down from 8 years in the 1960s (hudson 2011) . over half the value of stocks in the us are owned by the richest 1% of the population (wigglesworth 2020). the s&p 500 increased by 260% from 2009 to 2019, vs. a 35% increase in gdp, and by more than 12 times as much as gdp in 2019, contributing to an explosive increase in inequality. since over the counter foreign exchange trading first appeared in the early 1980s, transactions have soared to $6.6 trillion per day nearly 30 times greater than global gdp, with purchases also held for only seconds on average (hudson 2011) . we are often uncertain precisely which parameters are critical, can only guess when they will reach critical thresholds, and remain profoundly ignorant about new regimes into which our system may flip. as has been eloquently (taleb 2010) pointed out, the most consequential events in history have been black swans: extremely rare events with very high impacts that could not have been predicted ahead of time. the previous experience provides little to no guidance in predicting novel events. another major source of uncertainty is the reflexive nature of social systems and social science (soros, 2013) . societies develop beliefs and norms that affect their members' behavior. for example, social scientists develop theories to explain how people behave and how social systems function, but it is widely believed, the theories themselves can affect human behavior. theories can be self-fulfilling or self-negating. for example, even prior to the covid-19 crisis, many pundits were predicting a recession. if producers believe predictions, they will stop investing in new productive capacity, reducing the creation of new jobs if consumers believe that as well, they will start saving their money, reducing aggregate demand, leading producers to lay off workers, who respond by saving even more money in a positive feedback loop. these are the actions that can trigger a recession. in contrast, before the financial crisis that exploded in 2007, ben bernanke and other influential economists claimed we had achieved a 'great moderation' and no longer had to fear financial crisis (bernanke 2004; stock and watson 2002) . this very likely stimulated excessive risk-taking, and that precipitated the crisis, as predicted by minsky's financial instability hypothesis (minsky 1977) . several community environmental quality problems fall under wicked problems because depending on the stakes one has, the problem formulation -different characterizations of the problem that emerge when viewed from the perspectives of different stakeholders -can be very different: industry stakeholders whose primary objective is usually economic optimization within environmental regulation standards; communities that seek to balance socioeconomic welfare through access to jobs while reducing associated environmental contaminants -if they are dependent on jobs from the contaminating industries; more affluent communities that would rather have polluting industries removed or distanced from their communities to optimize environmental quality and public health, and government agencies whose primary objective is to administer regulations at the nexus of these competing demands. the triple bottom line does come into play here, but the relative importance of the different types of capital pertaining to the problem situation can be very different -sometimes reflected in long drawn out battles over community environmental contamination issues (brackett, 2019) . these multiple objectives bring in uncertainties as some objectives are well defined and can be quantified reasonably as others cannot be quantified accurately. use of multi-objective programming (mop) under uncertainty (fu et al., 2001; diwekar, 2012) or many objective robust decision making (mordm) (kasprzyk et al., 2013; singh et al., 2015) methods are useful in this context. the methods are suitable for level 2 as well as level 3 & 4 types of uncertainties. environmental contamination in local communities is a pervasive problem that affects sustainable development and public health at the local level, judging from the news and social media reporting. the popular media has intermittently reported on environmental contamination in various communities around the country where residents have been unaware of such contamination and its impact on their health for extended periods of time. examples include ethylene oxide emissions in the states of georgia and illinois, and the flint water crisis in michigan (goodman and miller, 2019; lutz, 2019; 11 alive news, 2019; abc-7 chicago, 2019; scalia, 2019; bowles, 2018) . communities that have been unknowingly exposed to environmental contaminants for relatively extended periods tend to develop a distrust of the public officials responsible for environmental quality (goodman and miller, 2019; lutz, 2019; 11 alive news, 2019; abc-7 chicago, 2019) . notable uncertainty exists concerning community exposure to environmental contaminants in the air, water, and soil, and there are several synthetic compounds in use today in various consumer products that have not been reviewed for safety by any government agency (asce, 2006) . therefore, uncertainties abound with local environmental contamination, both known unknowns and unknown unknowns. the emergence of lower-cost environmental quality sensors offers a growing opportunity for communities to engage in crowd science, partnering with universities and government officials, to develop a better understanding of their local environmental risks and begin to monitor and contribute to managing the most critical of them. how can emerging sensor technologies be adapted to monitor various critical contaminants in a community's risk profile in a cost-effective manner, and what is the feasibility and cost of large-scale deployments? the news media report that thousands of people around the country are beginning to measure air quality as climate change reports become increasingly dire, wildfires tear across the american west, and trust in the federal government's air quality oversight fades (un, 2015) . the purpleair map (2020), for example, is available to the public via the internet, and air quality monitoring network built on a new generation of "internet of things" sensors being used by individuals and communities. developed on the concern that local air contamination was higher than indicated, purpleair monitors are now being used by several individuals and communities around the world with air particulate data being fed in real-time over wi-fi to a public visual display online. coupling standard public domain reporting with organized crowd science efforts to monitor critical environmental contaminants, such technology can allow communities to initiate a new level of data-driven engagement with public officials. this can go a long way in fostering bottom-up approaches to balance the top-down approaches to environmental quality management at the local level. wicked problems that have persisted across years, decades, and centuries may have possible solution pathways that begin with the education of local communities to understand the profile of risks they are contending within their communities. it can then continue with communities partnering with universities, government officials, and other stakeholders to address such long-standing problems -leveraging emerging technologies and gathering relevant data to engage in smart governance. a recent case study in colorado presents a stake-holder-focused approach to local government sustainability planning to explicitly link u. diwekar, et al. resources, conservation & recycling 164 (2021) 105140 bottom-up and top-down approaches to environmental management (hopton et al., 2010; dubinsky and karunanithi, 2017a, b) . the deliberative process was intertwined with different types of uncertainties. during the stakeholder engagement phase, social values, competing interests, and points of view, trade-offs and choices would constitute different forms of uncertainties. the participation of community members introduced local context and local knowledge, which provided clear roadmaps for the construction of robust, meaningful, and realistic scenarios. it also facilitated the knowledge transfer process and ensured that locally defined sustainability benchmarks would be emphasized. it is highly recommended that the stakeholder-centric methodology be used in any future local governance sustainability projects. in a second case study, a multidisciplinary team evaluated a suite of six metrics of urban performance (ecological footprint, green net product, net energy, human wellbeing index, fisher information, emergy) linked to an agent-based simulation model to explore current conditions and trends in greater chicago. it was found as cronin (1991) suggested, that chicago and other urban systems are not static but constantly evolving. this poses the question of evolving uncertainties. the question for sustainability then is not whether an urban system (or any system) is sustainable at a given point in time, but rather whether that system has the capability and capacity to successfully evolve and adapt to the conditions that it will encounter in the future. manufacturing sustainability has become a global issue, especially in developed and fast-developing countries. an improved corporate sustainability performance does not automatically lead to an improved sustainability performance of the systems within which a company is embedded. a comprehensive assessment framework is needed to analyze whether an improved corporate sustainability performance can positively contribute to sustainable development on a global level. this includes first-order and second-order performance measurements (baumgartner, r. j., & korhonen, j., 2010; baumgartner and rauter, 2017) . the former assesses the direct sustainability impacts and usually focuses on narrow issues of efficiency, while second-order sustainability performance focuses on systemic effectiveness and covers sustainability impacts on society and nature in total, i.e., the entire system. this problem is usually posed as a multi-objective optimization problem (moradi and huang 2016 , liu and huang 2012 , 2013 , z. 2015 . however, there are not only uncertainties associated with each performance measure, but deciding the weights for different objectives presents significant uncertainties in solutions. there are both the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties that appear in various types of manufacturing sustainability problems. the uncertainties in secondorder performance measures are much higher than in first-order measures, and this needs to be balanced. this is because of the long-term nature of the performance objectives. this is obvious in the example of plastics (plastics europe, 2017; plastics europe 2020; geyer et al., 2017; shonnard et al., 2019; benavides et al., 2017; gracida, 2019; closed loop partners, 2019), and environmental impacts by the disposal of plastic from municipal solid waste. landfilling and leakage to the environment (as opposed to recycling or re-use) are thought to be the largest end-of-life fates for plastics that are used in packaging, which is the most common use of plastics. plastic packaging exhibits the shortest lifetime between its production and appearing at its end-of-life as waste in need of management. a circular economy for these polymeric materials, rather than a linear economy, is proposed as a solution to the responsible management of waste plastics. however, large-scale implementation of a circular economy for plastics is not well-understood with respect to economic costs and benefits, environmental impacts, and societal effects relative to business-as-usual linear management. a systems analysis for sustainability for a circular economy of plastics is difficult because of several problems related to uncertainties related to the definition of goals and knowledge gaps on current and future recycling processes. sustainable manufacturing often uses life cycle analysis for sustainability assessment. given the importance of life cycle assessment in sustainability, we have devoted a special section below on life cycle assessment and uncertainty. increasing awareness of environmental degradation and resource depletion has led to the incorporation of environmental sustainability considerations in engineering design and analysis. one such widely popular technique is the environmental life cycle assessment (graedel and allenby, 2019) , which aims to model and quantify the environmental impacts of products and systems over their entire life cycle (rebitzer et al., 2004) . by assessing the entire life cycle of the system of interest, one can evaluate the environmental impact of released emissions or of materials and energy used during various stages (material extraction, manufacturing, usage, disposal) of the product or system of interest. lca methods tend to focus heavily on emissions and their impact and resource use. it is also important to include ecosystem goods and services as well as societal benefits and impacts in lca to move towards sustainable development. however, ecosystem services and societal implications are either not accounted for or not well represented in most life cycle methods. some recent lca approaches have been developed for the purpose of assessing the role of ecosystem services in process and input-output life cycles (eco-lca) (zhang et al., 2010) . however, these have been limited in their scope, and placeholders exist for many ecosystem goods and serviced. these placeholders in lca (known unknowns) can lead to wrong policies. in "frames in toxicity controversy," arnold tucker (tucker, 1999) presents a case study where researchers had to advise the dutch government about the choice of incineration technology. however, lca at that time lacked fate modeling and could not provide any certainty about the choice. the researchers used the precautionary principle and asked for more research. however, the politicians did not have time or money to carry out the research, and it resulted in the wrong policy. these placeholders represent known unknowns and are part of level 3 uncertainties. as an example, consider the critical ecosystem service of pollination provided by insects. a lack of this service would be a significant detriment to not only ecosystem biodiversity and function, but also to various industrial sectors, agriculture, and the world economy (potts et al., 2016; klein et al., 2007) . in the united states, insectmediated pollination of crops accounts for between us$ 14-23 billion of pollination-dependent crop production alone, making this ecosystem service a highly valuable asset to the nutritional and economic welfare of the agricultural sector (chopra et al., 2015) . in addition, there are upstream and downstream industry sectors that rely upon pollinationdependent crop production (fertilizers, pesticides) as well as nonagricultural industrial sectors (pharmaceutical, fuel) that share linkages with crop production and agricultural sectors, leading to intricate indirect dependence upon pollination service mediated by insects. although this example is specific to insect pollination service, there are numerous other ecosystem goods and services that are being exploited at unsustainable rates and facing severe degradation (carpenter et al., 2006) . while the economic valuation of ecosystem goods and services provides an elegant framework highlighting their importance for society and human welfare, there is a need to explicitly account for their contribution when designing and developing products and services. data and models are needed at multiple scales to account for the contribution of ecosystem goods and services in environmental sustainability assessments and engineering design. at the process scale, recent work has attempted to account for the role of nature and specific ecosystem goods and services for the sustainable design of engineered u. diwekar, et al. resources, conservation & recycling 164 (2021) 105140 systems (carpenter et al., 2006; gopalakrishnan et al., 2016; charles et al., 2020) . from the lca perspective, new environmental impact categories will need to be developed for a comprehensive accounting of ecosystem goods and services. for example, the use of process-based models such as invest (sharp et al., 2018) could be integrated into life cycle frameworks. environmentally-extended input-output models have shown promise for an accounting of ecosystem goods and services, but they are also fraught with uncertainty associated with data and aggregation, which can hinder detailed assessments (zhang et al., 2010) . some of these challenges could be addressed with hybrid approaches (suh et al., 2004) . a more accurate valuation of ecosystem goods and services and their inclusion in human and engineering decision-making has the potential to motivate and guide conservation, revitalization efforts, and policy decision-making. recent efforts have focused on explicitly accounting for the role of ecosystems in supporting human activities by the framework of techno-ecological synergy (tes) . the goal of this framework is to determine the extent of ecological overshoot from specific activities for each ecosystem service and to encourage mutually beneficial designs of technological and ecological systems. several case studies indicate the potential environmental and economic benefits of establishing such synergies (bakshi, 2019; hanes et al., 2017; r.j. 2018; gopalakrishnan et al., 2016 gopalakrishnan et al., ,2017 gopalakrishnan and bakshi, 2018; martinez-hernandez et al., 2017; hernandez et al., 2019) . however, these studies are based on simplified models that do not account for the dynamics of technological and ecological systems, which can be quite different. technological systems are usually designed to have low variability and predictable behavior. thus, such systems tend to stay around a "set point" and exhibit homeostasis. in contrast, ecosystems tend to be intermittent and are not predictable. they exhibit "homeorhesis." benefiting from tes requires designs that combine the desired homeostasis of technologies and human-designed systems with the homeorhesis of nature. our hypothesis is that tes designs are more resilient than conventional techno-centric designs. exploring this hypothesis requires approaches for quantifying resilience. various approaches may be relevant for this task, depending on the nature of information available about the designed systems. ecological network analysis relies on information about the flow between nodes in a network. it relies on information-theoretic metrics that are useful for understanding the character of ecological and economic systems (ulanowicz et al., 2009) . if time-series data from the system are available, methods such as fisher information (eason et al., 2014 ) may be used. if more details such as dynamic models of the system, then mathematical approaches based on viability theory (béné, and doyen, 2018 ) may be applied. various approaches have been developed to account for the effect of uncertainties in network analysis (guesnet et al., 2015; hines et al., 2018) the effect of uncertainties may be included in the stochastic models used in these methods (de lara et al., 2009 ) and by the use of robust and stochastic optimization methods (sahinidis, 2004; diwekar, 2010) . the merriam-webster dictionary defines decision making as the act or process of deciding something, especially with a group of people. decision making under uncertainty methods are around for some time and is the topic of several books (e.g., morgan and henrion 1990; bedford and cooke 2001) . however, these methods do not deal with deep uncertainties that are present in regional as well as global sustainability models. dmdu methods are a topic of intense research in recent literature. dmdu methods are not based on the 'predict-then-act" paradigm, but that aims to prepare and adapt. according to a recent book on dmdu , there are four methods to deal with decision making under deep uncertainties. these include robust decision making (rdm), dynamic adaptive planning (dap), dynamic adaptive policy pathways (dapp), and engineering options analysis (eoa). while the first three involves hybrid approaches and described briefly below, eoa is quantitative in nature and is discussed in next section. for details of these methods, please refer to marchau et al., 2019. rdm draws from scenario analysis the concept of organizing information about the future into a small number of distinct cases that help people engage with, explore, and communicate deep uncertainty. however, rdm is different from scenario analysis that it uses computer simulations to generate large ensembles of future states of world as compared to a small number of cases in scenario analysis. rdm involves four steps 1 consider diverse plausible futures 2 seek strategies which are robust across a wide range of plausible futures 3 employ adaptive strategies to achieve robustness 4 use humans and computers alternatively to test each other's conclusions about futures and strategies. dap is a dmdu approach for designing a plan that explicitly includes provisions for adaptation as conditions change and knowledge is gained. dap approach involves 1 specifying a set of objectives and constraints 2 designing short-term actions initial plan 3 establish a framework to guide future (contingent) actions. dapp explicitly includes decision making over time. it is proactive and dynamic planning. it involves adaption pathways for multiple futures. dapp supports the design of a dynamic adaptive strategy that includes initial actions, long-term options, and adaptation signals to identify when to implement the long-term options or revisit decisions. also, central to the approach is the concept of adaptation tipping points. the adaptation tipping point (atp) approach was developed in the netherlands in response to a desire of the national government for a planning approach less dependent on any particular set of scenarios. dmdu approaches have been used for regional sustainability assessment and policy analysis. for example, molina-perez et al. (2019) studied how to design adaptive plans (rdm) for water supply infrastructure under deep uncertainty to ensure sustainable development in montreal, mexico. groves et al. (2019) presented a case study of the application of rdm to long-term water resources planning for the colorado river basin. vincent et al. (2019) used dap to derive innovative traffic safety technology in the netherlands. in a chapter, lawrence et al. (2019) describes how flood risk managers at a regional level in new zealand applied the dapp approach to managing deep uncertainty around flood frequency associated with changing climate, and examines the lessons learned from taking dapp theory into practice. hamarat et al. (2014) applied multi-objective simulation-based optimization with rdm to study how the european union can achieve its carbon reduction target under deep uncertainty. trindade et al. (2019) proposed deeply uncertain pathways for multicity regional water supply infrastructure investment and portfolio management. shi et al. (2019) proposed two adaptive screening procedures to identify when comprehensive decision analysis methods, such as dmdu methods introduced here, should be implemented. mathematical models featuring the critical components of a real ecosystem can aid in the formal study of sustainability. the first such comprehensive model for studying global sustainability is the model from the club of rome (meadows et al., 1972; meadows, 2014) called the world model. this model has components like the human u. diwekar, et al. resources, conservation & recycling 164 (2021) 105140 population, natural resources, pollution, industrial production, and agricultural land use. the results of this model established growth patterns and limits for the first time. models accounting for processes such as resource extraction, waste assimilation, recycling, and pollution in an integrated ecological, economic framework have also been proposed in the literature (van den bergh, 1996) . in recent years, the united global metamodel of the biosphere (gumbo) (boumans et al., 2002) was developed to include dynamic feedbacks among human technology, economic production and welfare, and ecosystem goods and services. the model was calibrated using time series data for 14 key variables from 1900 to 2000. recently, the model predictions were compared with data from 2000 to 2018 (boumans, 2019) . there are a number of planetary integrated assessment models available in the literature (wilson et al., 2017) to study global phenomena such as global climate change. a model that deals with food-energy nexus for global sustainability is recently proposed by kotecha et al. (2013) . since these models are dealing with long-term sustainability, they face the problem of time-dependent uncertainties (deep uncertainty). for example, fig. 2 shows how the global temperature change over the time span of 400 years. we can see that there is significant uncertainty in global warming and is changing with time. we cannot describe these uncertainties using static probability distributions. these are time-dependent uncertainty. financial literature abounds with such uncertainties and hence, as a result, provided a way to deal with such uncertainties using real options theory. real options theory uses stochastic processes to represent the time-dependent uncertainties. a stochastic process is one that evolves over time in an uncertain way. stochastic processes do not have time derivatives in the conventional sense, and, as a result, they cannot be manipulated using the ordinary rules of calculus as needed to solve the stochastic optimal control problems. ito (1951 ito ( , 1974 provided a way around this by defining a particular kind of uncertainty representation based on the wiener process as a building block. the wiener process, also known as brownian motion, is a continuous limit of the random walk and is a continuous-time stochastic process. a wiener process (continuous or discrete) can be used as a building block to model an extremely broad range of variables that vary continuously and stochastically through time. examples of ito processes are simple brownian motion, geometric brownian motion, mean-reverting process, etc. in the real options analysis (roa), dixit and pindyck (1994) used stochastic calculus (ito's lemma) coupled with dynamic programming to study investment decisions under uncertainty. this approach uses ito's lemma, which is called the fundamental theorem of stochastic calculus and allows us to differentiate and to integrate functions of stochastic processes. however, for deep uncertainties involved in sustainability, we need to consider the engineering options analysis. the difference between eoa and roa is that eoa considers multiple options with a range of possibilities. however, the mathematical methods used for roa and eoa are similar. recently, diwekar (diwekar, 2008; rico-ramirez et al., 2003; rico-ramirez and diwekar, 2004) presented basic concepts for dealing with time-dependent uncertainties modeling. these concepts are derived from the financial and economics literature and engineering optimal control theory. these concepts could be extended to studying sustainability as presented in the recent literature (shastri and diwekar, 2008; shastri et al., 2008a,b; diwekar and shastri, 2010; diwekar, 2012b diwekar, , 2015 doshi et al., 2015 , rodriguez-gonzalez et al., 2019 . although the tardis workshop of 2019 focused on the role of uncertainty in sustainability science and engineering, it was also discussed whether attempts to accurately assess the current condition of the earth and forecast future trends as accurately as possible are in fact in themselves symptoms of the underlying problem and reflects an anthropocentric view of human exemption, dominance, and omnipotence. effective management strategies might, therefore, focus also on fostering new approaches that reflect a more humble and flexible human-nature relationship. a recent article in pnas (steffen et al., 2018) argued that the "social and technological trends and decisions occurring over the next decade or so could significantly influence the trajectory of the earth system for tens to hundreds of thousands of years and potentially lead to conditions inhospitable to current human societies and to many other contemporary species." despite the best efforts of scientists to qualify their interventions and acknowledge that their scenarios are "mediating tools to communicate vulnerabilities, perceptions of risk or possible consequences, they often become taken as statements of the future" (yusoff and gabrys, 2011) . transformation is a way of reflecting on existing practices and imagining new ways of doing and knowing (duncan et al., 2018) , the capacity to collectively envision and meaningfully debate realistic and desirable futures (milkoreit, 2017) . transformations, however, involve "systems change and because of the political nature of change are subject to contestation" (hebinck et al., 2018) . norgaard (norgaard, 2018) suggests that while we have made significant progress in developing an ecological imagination through advances in climate science, we have made much less progress in actually changing course. the gap between responses to climate change and the socio-political realities of contemporary life have led to inaction, but the further problem is that we do not know and cannot know what changes are in motion (nightingale et al., 2019). beck's world risk society idea and its attendant uncertainty capture the sense that the speed and complexity of interactions blur cause and effect, creating the escalating potential for cascading catastrophic risks and a vision of the future characterized by chaos (rickards et al., 2014) . living with uncertainty is characterized "as the continuous emergency of its own emergence" (rickards et al., 2014) captured in the idea of the 'long emergency' (kunstler, 2005) . there is growing experimentation with participative and deliberative designs adapted from innovative governance mechanisms, e.g., citizens assemblies for national dialogues on climate change as a method for engaged research. the focus is very much on facilitating the active participation of local communities and civil society actors to explore the relationship between probable, preferable, and plausible futures (ellyard, 2011) . faced by growing societal demand for urgent action on climate change, e.g., extinction rebellion and the global climate strikes inspired by greta thunberg, there is an opportunity for more meaningful engagement between science and society. yet this is not straightforward and poses very particular challenges in preparing u. diwekar, et al. resources, conservation & recycling 164 (2021) 105140 present and future generations of researchers and professionals with the tools that are fit for the purpose of addressing these challenges. it is increasingly claimed that we are living in a world that is so complex, interconnected and uncertain, and that many of the situations that professionals, for example, engineers, have to deal with should be seen and treated as 'wicked problems' (an early description of such problems was provided by rittel & webber in 1973 . andersson et al. (2014 talk about societal systems as wicked, featuring properties that make them a combination of complicated and complex, using their terminology. farrell & hooker (2013) talk about all realworld science and engineering problems as wicked and describe three sources of wickedness: (1) finitude of cognitive abilities, (2) complexity of the problems, and (3) normativity in problem understanding and resolution. again, we can take the example of reactive nitrogen to describe the wickedness of problems. reactive nitrogen encompasses biologically and radiatively active, and chemically reactive nitrogen compounds. on a global scale, human activities now create approximately two-fold more nr than natural continental ecosystems. in the united states, nr creation by human activity is about 5-fold larger than natural processes by: (1) the haber-bosch process to generate ammonia (nh3) for synthetic nitrogen fertilizer and industrial feedstocks, (2) the enhancement of biological nitrogen fixation (bnf) in crop cultivation (e.g., legumes), and (3) the combustion of fossil fuels. the first two anthropogenic activities form nr on purpose; the last one forms nr as an unwanted pollutant. comparing these three sources, haber-bosch nr is by far the largest (epa et al., 2011) . anthropogenic creation of nr provides essential benefits for humans-first and foremost, in meeting human dietary needs. a large fraction of the human population of the earth could not be sustained if fertilizers containing haber-bosch (nr) did not augment food production significantly. there are, however, costs associated with these benefits. essentially all of the nr created by human activities is lost to the environment, often with negative, unintended consequences. there it circulates between, and accumulates within, environmental systems and contributes to a number of adverse public health and environmental effects. in an educational context, the collaboration of haber (a chemist) and bosch (a chemical engineer) is often presented as a triumph of science, and the ideal model for technological advancement. few at the time could foresee the unintended consequences of nr proliferation; indeed, perhaps these consequences were not foreseeable-the fields of environmental science and engineering, ecology, and environmental chemistry were at best immature, and the widely perceived vastness of earth lent it an aura of immutability. as hardin points out in his seminal essay "the tragedy of the commons" (hardin, 1968) , the concept of "waste" is relatively modern; humankind evolved on earth where almost all natural cycles were closed-loop systems-wastes simply did not exist. in many ways, our education paradigm is just emerging from its siloed past in which insular disciplinary approaches reigned supreme. the need for a new paradigm of convergent education is now widely recognized (nsf, 2017) . so, what approaches are more useful for dealing with wicked problems? porter & córdoba (2009) describe three different approaches to systems thinking. functionalist approaches are made from a scientific, systems analytic perspective and with a reductionist worldview. interpretive approaches, on the other hand, view systems as "mental constructs of observers" and explicitly explore normative assumptions behind the problem definition. complex adaptive systems approach instead recognize systems as not only complex, but also "adaptive," characterized by self-organization, emergence, and bottom-up change and thereby suggest that conflicts may be ultimately unresolvable and that there may not be definitive solutions to sustainability problems -or even a "best way of getting things done." if real-world problems are actually wicked, the third approach should be more useful, and it is then a problem that professionals are not properly trained to deal with such contexts. jonassen (2000) , for example, argues that engineering students are primarily trained to solve "story problems", using functionalist approaches. this is likely a result of the predominant culture in science and engineering based on objectivism, positivism, and reductionism and with a lack of recognition and discussions of the usefulness of alternative views. in an attempt to guide engineering education towards approaches that recognize the wickedness of real-world problems, lönngren et al. (2017; ) developed a description of and educational elements for developing such approaches. the description contains five 'structural' aspects related to the ability to deal with wicked problems, that focus on the interconnection between problems parts, improvement measures and secondary problems, but also five 'referential' aspects that focus on local contexts and stakeholders and their spheres of influence as well as the importance of lack of information and uncertainties. these latter five try to capture a new type of relationship to problem-solving, or rather to the management of situations, as wicked problems do not really have solutions. our relationship to what we know -and more importantly, what we do not know -requires mechanisms and tools that prepare researchers and professionals to foster adaptive relationships to the dynamics of complex socio-ecological systems. the challenges addressed here are akin to those identified by bai et al. " to find ways to live and act without knowing the future…science needs to have closer and different relations with practice, …where science not only informs practice but also learns from practice" (bai et al., 2016) . at its most basic core, sustainable development is an effort by humans to make institutions and choices to ensure that the earth can support our continued presence for the indefinite future. this is a difficult challenge given the size of the human population, the level of human activity, and the finite size of the earth. this brings humanity to a situation where it has to learn to manage the earth out of simple necessity. this is a difficult challenge because: (1) there are multiple aspects that must be considered and acted on, including policy, economics, manufacturing, environmental impacts, and education to name but a few, and (2) the knowledge necessary to effectively conduct the management action comes with substantial uncertainty which can be specific to some 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(dap): the case of intelligent speed adaptation. in decision making under deep uncertainties defining uncertainty: a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model based decision support collective consumption services of individual consumption goods the role of scientists in statutory interpretation of the u.s. endangered species act in: evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation. laxenbur, austria. international institute for applied systems analysis working paper uncertainty and the endangered species act the world bank databank climate change and the imagination new) species concepts, species delimitation and the inherent limitations of taxonomy accounting for ecosystem services in life cycle assessment, part ii: toward an ecologically based lca phylogeography of the california gnatcatcher (polioptila californica) using multilocus dna sequences and ecological niche modeling: implications for conservation geographic variation, null hypotheses, and subspecies limits in the california gnatcatcher: a response to mccormack and maley foundation under the grant cbet 1854519. key: cord-347241-9jn5agir authors: shahzad, arfan; hassan, rohail; aremu, adejare yusuff; hussain, arsalan; lodhi, rab nawaz title: effects of covid-19 in e-learning on higher education institution students: the group comparison between male and female date: 2020-08-04 journal: qual quant doi: 10.1007/s11135-020-01028-z sha: doc_id: 347241 cord_uid: 9jn5agir in response to the emerging and ever solution to the covid-19 outbreak. this study proposes a theoretical framework based on literature and model to determined e-learning portal success. the study compared males and females to e-learning portal usage. the study objective is to check the difference between male and female e-learning portals’ accessibility among the students’ perspective. the study included service quality, system quality, information quality, user satisfaction, system use, and e-learning portal success. the empirical data of 280 students participated from the different universities of malaysia through google surveys analyzed using the partial least squares structural equation modelling. the study further divided the full model into two domains, which are female and male. in the male model, information quality and system quality have direct relationships with user satisfaction. information quality also supported the relationship with system use. at the same time, there is a positive relationship between user satisfaction and e-learning portals. likewise, in the female model, e-service quality and information quality both are supported by system use and user satisfaction. similarly, system quality has a positive relationship with user satisfaction, and user satisfaction has a positive relationship with e-learning portals. the study will be further helpful for the malaysian universities policy-makers such as top management, ministry of higher education, malaysian universities union in designing the policies and programs on e-learning portal success in the country. the findings of the study reveal that males and females have a different level of in terms of usage of towards e-learning portals in malaysian universities. in the 21st century, at the end of 2019 in wuhan, the high technology business hubs of china experience an epidemic of an entirely distinctive coronavirus appeared that had killed a few thousand chinese within the fifty days of spreads and thousands of other citizens are suffered. the novel virus was nominated as covid-19 novel coronavirus by the chinese scientists (shereen et al. 2020) . later on, in a shorter period, this covid-2019 spread worldwide. several country's economies are severely affected due to covid-2019. further, the outbreak has changed the operating conditions all over the globe within a month. the consequences of a pandemic are unstoppable and uncontrollable for many industries of the world. later on, almost 120 countries have stopped face-to-face learning; approximately a billion students' education is effected worldwide with covid-19. most of the higher education system is operating through the e-learning (azzi-huck and shmis 2020; shahzad et al. 2020a, b) . meanwhile, to tackle the covid-19 pandemic, almost all the world, and including malaysian higher education ministry, has issued the ordered to close the public school and higher education closure as an emergency measure to stop spreading the infection. technologies have changed the traditional way of education to the modern way of learning, like artificial intelligence (di vaio et al. 2020a) . thus e-learning is covered under a larger term of technology-based learning through websites, learning portals, video conferencing, youtube, mobile apps, and thousand types of free available websites for blended learning tools. currently, e-learning is enhancing students' knowledge, even the academic staff and professional and industry people skills through the internet (adams et al. 2018; chopra et al. 2019 ). most of the higher education universities are providing online courses for their students within and off campuses. in malaysia, the government is providing many resources to higher education. based on the news reports, the malaysian universities, colleges, polytechnics are using massive open online courses (moocs). the growth of the online education market is expected 16.4% annually over the forecast period, 2016-2023. with the massive growth of the internet, maybe university teaching and learning models will be changed in 10 to 15 years. thus, it based on male and female students on the use of the e-learning portal. this study focuses on comparisons between male and female counterparts on e-learning portal usage among university students during the covid-2019 period. globally, due to covid-19 outbreak universities closed and lockdown, most teachers and students are happy by the move online education. the faculty members of worldrenowned universities have begun to get online instructor certifications to deliver online teaching to their students. at the same time, faculty and staff members are learning how to use online learning platforms. previous, they are using only the delivery through face-toface teaching. however, the shift to online mode has raised many queries on the quality of education (sahu 2020) . furthermore, the quality of education and excellent infrastructures such as computers and it modern equipment reception are now in massive demand and universities are changing their teaching models with the use of intellectual capital (alvino et al. 2020; di vaio et al. 2020b ). thus, an unexpected shift from face-to-face learning to online, there are few difficulties faced by students and lectures. moreover, most of the countries significant issues with technological infrastructure in rural areas; thus, the standard of online education may be a critical issue that needs essential focus. therefore, based on the above-said issues, this study tries to investigate the impact of male and female students on the use of the e-learning portal. in previous literature, the d&m model is tested on the overall population, like banks and other financial sectors. in the current study, the whole population is divided into males and female categories to hoped different theoretical contributions by having a division of the population. consequently, universities in malaysia are offering an online course to the students on campus and off-campus. the current study focuses on the male and female user satisfaction and e-learning system use toward the e-learning portal success of the malaysian universities. based on many researchers (cidral et al. 2018; selvaraj 2019) claimed that user satisfaction and e-learning system use have a significant impact on success. this study will conduct on the students how are enrolled with malaysian universities and using the e-learning portal for their learning. based on the argument so far, there is a still gap in literature the e-learning system among universities after the spread of the covid-19 outbreak on higher education closure. the purpose of the present study to investigate the effect of information quality, system quality, and service quality toward user satisfaction and e-learning system use impact on the e-learning portal success. therefore, the study focuses on group comparison between male and female students on the e-learning portal uses. this paper contains five major sections. section 2 briefly described the compiling review of previous literature that how the learning curve has shifted towards online portals by using delone and mclean model. in sect. 3, a description of the research method and the overall process of data collection and analysis were the main focus. section 4 relates to the multi-group analysis (mga) and the interpretation of the result. lastly, sect. 5 concluded with a holistic discussion related to the male and female groups of the study. toward the end of february, as alerts sounded on the increasing spread of the covid-19 infection, the world bank built up a multi-sectoral worldwide task force team to help nation reaction and adapting measures. at that point, just china and some other influenced nations were upholding social distance through the closure of schools. in the meantime, following fourteen days after the fact, 120 countries have closed schools impacting almost a billion students across the world that have experience closures of their schools for the period (azzi-huck and shmis 2020). in this light, the covid-19 pandemic has forced the universities to close face-to-face education and send students home. this force the universities to introduce courses through online portals. also, education industries are adopting the technologies available such as digital video conferencing platforms like zoom, microsoft platform, and webex blackboard and google classroom (larry 2020). therefore, this will be enhancing e-learning globally (chen 2010; yengin et al. 2011; larry 2020) . therefore, the current study concentrating on the comparison between male and female on e-learning. in this light, applying remote learning and education resources to mitigate the loss of learning: in web-based technology, electron learning is well-knowns as well as the earliest application (azhari and ming 2015) . in today the e-learning is getting very popular worldwide. e-learning is described as the delivery of learning through technology and the internet (gros et al. 2016; hong et al. 2017; aljawarneh 2020) . almost all the universities and colleges have developed the e-learning portal of their students and faculties (moore et al. 2011 ). in the 21st century, the e-learning creates a more significant impact on all types of the student, much as the part-time and full-time or distance learning student in the higher education institution (azhari and ming 2015) . nowadays, the majority of the postgraduate students are registered as a part-time student, because they are working in the companies. e-learning helps them a lot because of their time constrain. the advancement in e-learning has been started through massive open online courses (moocs) for students, society, and the industry as well since 2012 (calisir et al. 2014; margaryan et al. 2015) . moocs are recognized as a significant development in higher education million of the peoples and student are taking the benefits and uplifting the existing skill (gupta and gupta 2020) . moreover, in recent decades, several malaysian universities have adopted the e-learning portals (hussin et al. 2009; paechter and maier 2010) . based on the research of azhari and ming (2015) highlighted several issues related to the learning management system (lms) of the malaysian universities such as the lack of trained lectures, slow down of the internet speed, wifi coverage, infrastructure, the interface of design, quality of content, system use and students' adoption. in the present research, the comparison between male and female students is measured based on e-learning portal success. meanwhile, the researchers will find out the importance of e-learning tools' success in terms of male and female malaysian student perspectives. d & m model iss success model has gained significant attention from researchers in the field of information systems. in 1992, this model was initially developed by delone and mclean to measure the dependent construct of is success (delone and mclean 1992) was primarily based on following three aspects: (shannon and weaver 1949 ) study on communications, taxonomy of (mason 1978) measuring information output and research work on information system during that period. there are three levels of communication per (shannon and weaver 1949) first level: technical: (accuracy of information system) second level: semantic (success of right information conveyed to the right receiver) third level: effectiveness (influence of information on the receiver). the information success model (1992) has discussed the six dimensions, such as information quality, system quality, system use, user satisfaction, and organizational impact. after one decade, the author modified the original model by adding service quality dimension and the end replaced the individual impact and organizational impact with the net benefits. figure 1 showed the original d&m model having six interdependent dimensions (delone and mclean 1992; mohammadi 2015) . in this model, the "system quality" construct depicts "technical success." in contrast, the "information quality" variable demonstrate "semantic success," while the other four elements "use," "user satisfaction," "individual impact," and "organizational impact" show "effectiveness success." therefore, this study focus on male students' comparison with female students on the e-learning portal. as time passed, the researcher used d&m model to check the success of the information communication system. many studies suggested to add the new dimensions of d&m model, and some have recommended to include the such as "service quality," "workgroup impact," "consultant/vendor quality" in the d & m model (gable et al. 2003; ifinedo 2006) . while the few researchers criticize d & m model "use" and "user satisfaction," dimensions. many studies have changed the number of aspects according to their context, but no study considers organization capabilities mediating role in the relation between alone impact and organizational impact. in this light, a comparison of males and females among university students to determine the e-learning portal. the study of ifinedo (2011) highlights the importance of the system quality creates a great impact on the e-learning portal. the system quality of the e-learning will generate query results more quickly. moreover, system quality will increase the interest of the enduser. also, the user-friendly interface and modern graphical interface increase the level of user satisfaction. the study of petter et al. (2013) highlighted that service provider should adopt the new changes and modify time to time the system. also, the system quality construct has been used in the context of the e-learning system, which depicts whether the user is satisfied with the quality of the e-learning portal. "perceived ease of use" is the most used measure of "system quality" (davis, 1989) . furthermore, sq has been identified as ease of learning, ease of use, the convenience of access, the usefulness of system features, system complexity, system features, and response time of information system (beheshti and beheshti 2010) . furthermore, as suggested by sedera et al. (2013) , sq means ease of learning, efficient, consistent, modifiable, efficient, personalizable, meets the requirements, ease of use, and reliable. in addition, (delone and mclean 2016) acknowledged system quality by measures: ease of use, availability, flexibility, reliability, usefulness, and response time. there are certain modifications in standards of system quality that occurs over time. however, some measures remain the same and consistently being applied and validated, which are as follows: the luxury of use, the comfort of learning, reliability, personalizabality, reply-time, availability, system interactivity, and system security. moreover, the study concentrates on the male and female comparison. the iq depicts the precision as well as the accuracy of the information provided by the e-learning system; timeliness is another important indicator of information quality that information should be generated within time and latest. so, that higher management can make quick decisions, sufficiency is another characteristic of information quality that it should not be insufficient and must contain all information required to the user. understandability is a very effective characteristic of the iq construct that it should be easy to understand and should not be complex that difficult to grasp. conciseness is another vital part of information quality produced by the e-learning system, system in any organization (petter et al. 2013; cai and zhu 2015; chiang et al. 2019) . additionally, information quality demonstrates the output characteristics of the information system that it is proving the timely information to all the departments of the organization; the information should be relevant to the particular user or the department. the required information is available at the right time to the right person; the data' provided by the information system should be understandable to the users (ifinedo, 2014; muda and erlina 2019; pham et al. cr55) . therefore, the comparison of male and female students on the e-learning portal is the target of this study. furthermore, the main purpose of information quality is to provide users online knowledge with correct relevant information on 24/7. so, it must be considered active for the e-learning portal success. information quality in past literature considered being part of user satisfaction measurement. it is not treated as a separate variable further argued that information quality measures vary depending upon the type of information system success going to be evaluated. however, there are consistent measures of information quality for e-learning success as follows: relevance, usefulness, understandability, accuracy, reliability, currency, completeness, timeliness. based on the comparison of male and female university students. service quality refers to "responsiveness," which is a very important indicator. it means how efficiently the technical department responds to the queries of users. also, empathy is another characteristic of service quality of how attentively they are helping the users (petter et al. 2013; haryaka et al. 2017; xu and du 2018) . moreover, in the d&m model, service quality was neglected and updated in d&m (2013). is success model. many items have been stated to measure e-learning system service quality but mostly cited instrument developed by authors (parasuraman et al. 1986; parasuraman et al. 1988; parasuraman et al. 2002) . initially, ten dimensions were used to measure service quality, which later transformed into five named; tangibles, reliability, responsibility, assurance, and empathy. this updated model of d&m model found very useful for evaluating the success of different types of technologies related application. most of the studies used this model of an information system, erp system success, e-procurement application, e-government application on the user perspective, e-banking application use success, and also several other online application successes business (hsu et al. 2015; almarashdeh 2016; aparicio et al. 2017; ojo 2017; cidral et al. 2018; aparicio et al. 2019 ). e-learning involves the usage of modern technology to impart learning; thus, the present study needs to investigate how the end-user accepts much e-learning portal success. therefore, the present study highlighted the comparison between male and female students on the e-learning portal. thus, fig. 2 has shown the research framework of the present study and hypothesis. h 1 e-service quality has a significant positive impact between males and females on the system use. h 2 e-service quality has a significant positive impact between males and females on user satisfaction. based on previous research, the current study has developed a survey instrument. the questionnaire was adopted/adapted and reworded in the form of e-learning. all items used a 5point likert scale ranging from 1 to 5 from "strongly disagree" to "strongly agree." the questionnaire items of system quality, information quality, system usage, satisfaction user was adopted from (mcgill, hobbs and klobas, 2003; rai, lang and welker, 2002) . the e-learning portal success survey instrument items were adopted from (freeze et al. 2010) . all items of e-learning portal success were used a 5-point likert scale ranging from 1-"poor," 2-"fair," 3-"satisfactory," 4-"very good" to 5-" excellent." the research used a quantitative approach; the survey was conducted through the google form; the links were shared with the student through the whatsapp group of lecturers. all the malaysian university student is participating in the e-learning portal survey. the convenience sampling technique was used. the study employed a cross-sectional survey method. in table 1 , the students of undergraduate 212 (75.7%) and postgraduate 68 (24.3%) have participated in the online survey conducted from august to september 2019. in table 2 , in the demographic analysis, the 'gender' factor showed that female participants have a more response rate of 67.9% as compared to 32.1% who were male. in malaysian universities is more enrolment of female as compared to male. regarding the 'age group' of respondents, data revealed that the majority was having the age-group of respondents 21-30 years 212 (75.7%). also, regarding the "experience using the e-learning portal," data showed that most of the students who participated in the survey they have experienced using the e-learning portal is more than two years. to achieve the research objectives, the study has employed partial least squares (pls) version 3.3.0 to facilitate data analysis. based on the context of inferential analyses, partial least squares-structural equation modelling (pls-sem) application has been applied in several disciplines (hair et al. 2016 ). these developments contribute to the growth of pls-sem that is generally used as a research instrument in the field of management information systems as well as the social sciences (hair et al. 2016) . also, confirm the importance of pls's ability to analyze variables in complex models, simultaneously. smart pls evaluates two models, mainly, which are measurement and structural (hair et al. 2016 ). internal consistency mentions the degree to which all indicators are different then each other (sub) scale is evaluating an equivalent concept (hair et al. 2016) . inline thereupon, the composite reliability score value must be higher than 0.70, and the ave score value to quite 0.50 (hair et al. 2013 (hair et al. , 2016 . therefore, it explained in table 3 below, all the constructs included in the present study have ave, and composite reliability (cr) is above the criteria above said, which may be a suggestion of measurement model reliability. while table 3 stated that the average variance extracted (ave) and cr values of all variables are in an appropriate range. it shows that all the constructs of the female and male groups have ave's and cr value are above the threshold values, which proved the reliability of the measurement model (figs. 3, 4 , 5). in the present study, also check the discriminant validity criterion, which measures the degree to which a variable is not equivalent to other constructs (hair et al. 2016 ). according to fornell & lacker criterion explained that the higher level of discriminant validity proposes that constructs are differents than the respective variables and not explaining some phenomena. the present study performed the discriminant validity taking the square root of ave of the constructs. thus, the values are higher than the correlations among latent constructs (hwang and min 2015) . therefore, in table 4 , the present study of male and female and full model having no issues with discriminant validity (naala et al. 2017 ). the measure two sets of university students, male and female, the study applies an invariance test. at the same, it is vital to conduct the invariance test before conducting a multi-group analysis. thus, the purpose is to determine "whether, under different conditions of observing and studying phenomena, measurement models yield measures of the same attribute" (henseler et al. 2016 ). afterward, the study follows three steps, namely, configural invariance, compositional invariance, and equality of composite means values and variances to test measurement invariance (henseler et al. 2016) . firstly, since the measurement models have the same number of constructs for both groups, therefore the male and female group data is established for configural invariance (see tables 3, 4 ). secondly, compositional invariance was measured engaging a permutation test. this assures that the composite scores are the same between the groups. lastly, equality of composite variances and means values of groups were assessed. thus, the difference of the composite's mean and variance ratio results, as shown in table 5 , must fall within the 95% confidence interval. as indicated in table 5 , the result reveals that each of the composite constructs has non-significant differences regarding the composite mean and variances ratio. moreover, in table 5 , full measurement invariance is depicted for male and female. therefore, it is often deduced that the various model estimations of male and female groups students are not distinct in terms of content or usage of the e-learning portal. in the current study, the researchers have applied pls-mga in order to calculate the differences by using welch-satterthwait test on male and female groups (sarstedt et al. 2011) . furthermore, table 6 is depicting the path coefficient and difference of the composite's means. meanwhile, several paths are found to be different in terms of male and female data sets and significantly different. the present study found the e-service quality toward the system use male and female have a difference. on the otherwise information quality toward the system use having a difference between the male and female. as per the female group assessment concerned in table 6 , hypothesis 1 predicted that esq is positively significantly related to system use with path coefficient of (0.285**), while (p value > 0.05) not supporting hypothesis 1. thus, hypothesis 2, demonstrate the significant positive association among esq and us (β = 0.503, p value < 0.05) hypothesis 2 supported. hypothesis 3 articulated that information quality is significant positively linked with system use (β = 0.388, p value > 0.05), not supporting hypothesis 3. equally, hypothesis 4, demonstrates a significant positive association with iq and us (β = 0.287, p value < 0.05) supporting hypothesis 4. furthermore, hypothesis 5 predicted that system quality is insignificant negatively associated with system use (β = 0.063, p value > 0.05), not supporting hypothesis 5. results of hypothesis 6 demonstrate a significant positive association between system quality and user satisfaction (β = 0.181, p value > 0.05), not supporting hypothesis 6. hence, hypothesis 7 articulated that system use is significant positively linked with e-learning portal success (β = 0.008, p value > 0.05), not supporting hypothesis 7. finally, hypothesis 8, demonstrates an insignificant negative association with user satisfaction and e-learning portal success (β = 0.701, p value > 0.05), not supporting hypothesis 8. therefore, based on the above evidence, it can be concluded that female students more understand the important usage of e-learning portal success in the content of the university. this implies that female students hold the dominant positions on the usage of the e-learning portal. regarding male group assessment, table 6 hypothesized that esq is negatively insignificantly related to system use with (β = 0.165, p value > 0.05) not supporting hypothesis 1. next, with hypothesis 2, that demonstrates an insignificant negative association between esq and us (β = 0.204, p value < 0.05) hypothesis 2 supporting. while hypothesis 3 articulated that iq is significant positively linked with system use (β = 0.354, p value > 0.05), not supporting hypothesis 3. additionally, hypothesis 4, demonstrates a significant positive association with information quality and user satisfaction (β = 0.551, p value < 0.05) supporting hypothesis 4. consequently, hypothesis 5 revealed that system quality is insignificant negatively associated with system use (β = 0.074, p value > 0.05), not supporting hypothesis 5. results of hypothesis 6 demonstrate a significantly positive association between sq and us (β = 0.220, p value > 0.05), not supporting hypothesis 6. thus, hypothesis 7 articulated that system use is significant positively linked with e-learning portal success (β = 0.017, p value > 0.05) not (table 7) and (figs. 6, 7, 8) . in regard to the hypothesis testing on the female group, six (6) variables were, directly and indirectly, significant and supported to e-learning portal success. in the female students model, e-service quality and information quality both are supported with system use and user satisfaction. similarly, system quality has a positive relationship with user satisfaction, and user satisfaction has a positive relationship with e-learning portals. on the other hand, in male students, four (4) variables are significant. more precisely, information quality and system quality have direct relationships with user satisfaction. information quality also supported the relationship with system use. at the same time, there is a positive relationship between user satisfaction and e-learning portals. in the full model, user satisfaction is significant in terms of information quality and service quality. consequently, user satisfaction is also significant in terms of e-learning portals. thus, e-learning portal usage is more towards female students in malaysian universities. regarding theoretical implication, the adoption studies are numerously studied phenomena both at an individual (customer) as well as organizational (management) levels. although, technology adoption studies like e-learning portals success among students is a rarely researched phenomenon, particularly in malaysian universities. the present study is considered a pioneer in terms of e-portals implementation in universities to test empirical, theoretical relationships in terms of males and females. mainly, it elaborated on the relationship between the variables such as e-learning portal success, esq, iq, sq, su has a significant impact on us. this present study proposes and examined the factors that affect the e-learning portal by extending d & m theory to incorporate elements that are more associated with the is success and e-learning among university students. additionally, d & m model is taken into account because the is tangible factors that would help universities strengthen and enhance their services. the significant contribution of the present study is the behavior of model changes if we divide the full model into parts (male and females). the proposed that d and m models provide misleading out in terms of the full model. thus, its theoretical relationship changes as the model divided into different subgroups. this confirms the effectiveness of the e-learning portals in different for male and female students of malaysian universities. the current study, in the context of malaysian as well as other countries' universities, has numerous implications related to e-learning portals technology. the study will be further helpful for the malaysian government and university policy-makers such as top management, ministry of higher education, malaysian universities union in designing the policies and programs on e-learning portal success in the country. at the same time, university top management/dean of faculty and hod of the department need to concentrate on the importance of enhancing university quality education. the study further implies that females students of malaysian universities are more focused on the e-learning portal as compare to male students. in the covid-19 outbreak, the operational habits have changed around the globe within a short period, and mainly the education sector affected worldwide. in the future, most of the universities will be offering online courses to the students. the covid-19 will create a long-term impact on higher education institutions. if the pandemic remains longer, it might change education from face to face to online. based on that, the quality of the e-learning system, quality of information that will create an impact on user satisfaction and system use that will lead toward the e-learning portals. it will decrease the education cost, and education will reach outside the border as well. education will be borderless in 5 to 10 years. this study recommends some of the suggestion to higher education institution such accessibility of the e-learning portal 24/7, error-free information, quality of information, content quality, the robustness of the server, training module materials related to e-learning portal use for new users, updated information, well-organized data, userfriendly design of the portal, and time to time feedback from the user will increase the durability and acceptability of the e-learning portal. this study focuses on comparisons between male and female counterparts on e-learning portal usage among university students. e-learning portal services adaptability in the among the student perspective of male and female. the present study highlight difference between the male and female success-fully use on the e-learning portal in malaysia. while future studies will have to consider some variables like (technology infrastructure support, system change perceived of use, perceived usefulness, user's perception, and technical expertise), moreover, the further studies can be conducted by applying longitudinal design to empirically test the theoretical constructs by analyzing other countries' universities. in the end, top management of universities is provided with recommendations for developing an understanding of the implication of e-service quality, information quality, system quality, system use, and user satisfaction concerning the e-learning portal success. e-learning readiness among students of diverse backgrounds in a leading malaysian higher education institution sharing instructors' experience of learning management system: a technology perspective of user satisfaction in distance learning course reviewing and exploring innovative ubiquitous learning tools in higher education intellectual capital and sustainable development: a systematic literature review grit in the path to e-learning success gamification: a key determinant of massive open online course (mooc) success review of e-learning practice at the tertiary education level in malaysia managing the impact of covid-19 on education systems around the world: how countries are preparing, coping, and planning for recovery improving 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intelligence in the agri-food system: rethinking sustainable business models in the covid-19 scenario human resources disclosure in the eu directive 2014/95/ eu perspective: a systematic literature review is success model in e-learning context based on students' perceptions enterprise systems success: a measurement model future trends in the design strategies and technological affordances of e-learning. learning, design, and technology: an international compendium of theory technology and e-learning in higher education partial least squares structural equation modeling (pls-sem) an emerging tool in business research partial least squares structural equation modeling: rigorous applications, better results and higher acceptance. long range plan user satisfaction model for e-learning using smartphone using pls path modeling in new technology research: updated guidelines. industrial management & data systems internet cognitive failure relevant to users' satisfaction with content and interface design to reflect continuance intention to use a government e-learning system assessing erp post-implementation success at the individual level: revisiting the role of service quality instructional design and e-learning: examining learners' perspective in malaysian institutions of higher learning. campus-wide information systems identifying the drivers of enterprise resource planning and assessing its impacts on supply chain performances extending the gable et al enterprise systems success measurement model: a preliminary study an empirical analysis of factors influencing internet/e-business technologies adoption by smes in canada information systems security policy compliance: an empirical study of the effects of socialisation, influence, and cognition instructional quality of massive open online courses (moocs) measuring information output: a communication systems approach user-developed applications and information systems success: a test of delone and mclean's model investigating users' perspectives on e-learning: an integration of tam and is success model e-learning, online learning, and distance learning environments: are they the same? influence of human resources to the effect of system quality and information quality on the user satisfaction of accrual-based accounting system innovation capability and firm performance relationship: a study of pls-structural equation modeling (pls-sem) validation of the delone and mclean information systems success model online or face-to-face? students' experiences and preferences in e-learning. the internet and higher education refinement and reassessment of the servqual scale servqual: a multiple-item scale for measuring consumer perceptions of service quality servqual: a multiple-item scale for measuring consumer perc information systems success: the quest for the independent variables does e-learning service quality influence e-learning student satisfaction and loyalty evidence from vietnam assessing the validity of is success models: an empirical test and theoretical analysis closure of universities due to coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19): impact on education and mental health of students and academic staff multigroup analysis in partial least squares (pls) path modeling: alternative methods and empirical results success of e-learning systems in management education in chennai city-using user's satisfaction approach malaysian smes performance and the use of e-commerce: a multi-group analysis of click-and-mortar and pureplay e-retailers covid-19 impact on e-commerce usage: an empirical evidence from malaysian healthcare industry the mathematical theory of communication covid-19 infection: origin, transmission, and characteristics of human coronaviruses factors influencing users' satisfaction and loyalty to digital libraries in chinese universities e-learning success model for instructors' satisfactions in perspective of interaction and usability outcomes are we there yet? a step closer to theorizing information systems success publisher's note springer nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations acknowledgements the authors would like to thank the anonymous referees for providing helpful comments and suggestions which lead to the improvement of the paper.funding this research received no external funding. the authors declare no conflicts of interest. arfan shahzad 1 · rohail hassan 1 · adejare yusuff aremu 1 · arsalan hussain 1 · rab nawaz lodhi 2 key: cord-289775-40bi87iz authors: haines, david e.; beheiry, salwa; akar, joseph g.; baker, janice l.; beinborn, doug; beshai, john f.; brysiewicz, neil; chiu-man, christine; collins, kathryn k.; dare, matthew; fetterly, kenneth; fisher, john d.; hongo, richard; irefin, samuel; lopez, john; miller, john m.; perry, james c.; slotwiner, david j.; tomassoni, gery f.; weiss, esther title: heart rhythm society expert consensus statement on electrophysiology laboratory standards: process, protocols, equipment, personnel, and safety date: 2014-05-07 journal: heart rhythm doi: 10.1016/j.hrthm.2014.03.042 sha: doc_id: 289775 cord_uid: 40bi87iz nan the modern electrophysiology (ep) laboratory is a complex environment providing an array of interventions for the diagnosis and treatment of heart rhythm disorders and is a result of many transformations over the last three decades. the ep field has witnessed rapid expansion in the number of therapeutic procedures treating a wide range of arrhythmias and in the new technologies available to perform these procedures. because of the increasing complexity of equipment and procedures and an ever-expanding knowledge base, it was concluded that the field would benefit from a consensus document that would define the critical components and processes of a modern ep laboratory. to this end, the heart rhythm society (hrs) convened a multidisciplinary team to review ep laboratory design, ergonomics, personnel, equipment, occupational hazards, and patient safety, as well as clinical and ethical issues related to diagnostic and therapeutic ep procedures. the goal is to provide physicians, administrators, and regulatory personnel with the recommended requirements for building, staffing, and running a modern ep laboratory to optimize patient outcomes, minimize patient risk, and provide a safe and positive environment for physicians and staff. the writing committee was formed by the scientific and clinical documents committee of the hrs, with approval by the president of the hrs and the hrs executive committee. the composition of the committee was meant to represent the range of stakeholders in the ep laboratory. the choice of the writing committee members was in accordance with the hrs relationships with industry policy. 1 all members of the writing committee were required to fully disclose all potential conflicts of interest (see appendix 1). relatively little published literature addresses the ep laboratory environment, staffing, and processes. therefore, many of the statements in this document are the product of expert consensus by the writing committee and reviewers. for cases in which there were divergent opinions on a statement, a vote among writing committee members was taken, and if a two-third majority supported the statement, it was adopted in the document. the sections pertaining to pediatric and adult congenital heart disease were reviewed and approved by the pediatric and congenital electrophysiology society (paces), a nonprofit organization dedicated to the treatment of arrhythmia disorders in children and individuals with congenital heart disease (chd). the final document was approved by the board of trustees of the hrs. this document is directed to all health care professionals who design, manage, and/or work in the ep laboratory environment. the field of clinical cardiac electrophysiology (ccep) has grown from its origin as a field of clinical research for arrhythmogenesis to its present-day incarnation as an important specialty offering advanced therapies for a wide variety of disorders. clinical ep laboratories emerged in the late 1960s, and by the early 1970s, formal fellowships had been established and ep laboratories were taking shape. firstgeneration ep laboratories often shared space with cardiac catheterization laboratories and were typically subordinate to coronary angiographic and hemodynamic procedures. when a space was dedicated for electrophysiological testing, it was often small, and fluoroscopy was delivered with portable carm units. these laboratories were sufficient for diagnostic ep studies and electropharmacological testing. secondgeneration ep laboratories developed in the 1980s with the introduction of catheter ablation and cardiac implantable electronic devices (cieds) to the electrophysiologist's armamentarium. pacemaker implantation was shifting from the domain of surgery to that of cardiac ep. with increasingly complex procedures being performed in ep laboratories, more space was allocated to new dedicated laboratories and fluoroscopy equipment began to be upgraded to systems commensurate with those used in cardiac catheterization laboratories. the third generation of interventional cardiac ep has been driven by the success of catheter ablation and advanced device therapy. the precise anatomy and physiology of a wide variety of arrhythmias has been elucidated through the development of advanced mapping systems and improvements in ablation catheter technologies. modern device therapy incorporates multimodal multisite pacing, sophisticated therapies for tachyarrhythmias, and advanced diagnostics. with the increasing complexity of ep procedures and equipment has come increasing sophistication of laboratory processes and greater demands on laboratory personnel. the cost and complexity of the modern ep laboratory now demands that standards are developed to ensure a high level of care. highly complex procedures or procedures on patients with certain conditions and comorbidities that are associated with higher procedural risk should not be performed in a freestanding laboratory (i.e., an ep laboratory that is not physically attached to a hospital). emergency cardiovascular surgical support should be immediately available in case of life-threatening bleeding complications from the extraction of chronic device leads and complex mapping/ablation procedures, particularly those requiring pericardial access. high-risk procedures in critically ill patients, such as ablation of ventricular tachycardia in patients requiring extracorporeal hemodynamic support, can only be safely performed in institutions offering comprehensive programs with active engagement from electrophysiologists, surgeons, intensivists, and anesthesiologists. there are multiple options and practice settings for performing ep and implantable device procedures. medical centers may adopt one or more of the following laboratory operations for their practice. the choice among the following options involves a trade-off between increasing capability for procedure complexity and increasing construction and operating costs. in a dedicated ep laboratory, the staff space and procedure room space are separate from the cardiac catheterization laboratory and/or radiology laboratory, although the staff space and procedure room space often exist within a common area. the preparatory and recovery rooms are often shared with other subspecialties. procedures that can be performed in this laboratory setting include diagnostic ep studies, ablation procedures, use of cardiac implantable devices, implantable device extractions, use of temporary pacemakers, threedimensional (3d) mapping, intracardiac echocardiography (ice), and use of robotics. the advantages of using a dedicated ep laboratory include greater availability of more highly trained allied personnel, room equipment dedicated to only ep procedures, and decreased overall equipment costs per room. a shared procedural laboratory program is usually in association with a cardiac catheterization laboratory program, but can also be shared with an interventional radiology program. a shared room allows for two or more practices to share common equipment that includes fluoroscopic equipment, recording systems, emergency equipment, and anesthesia equipment, as well as the space. this is helpful in circumstances of low overall volumes when sharing a room allows for flexibility in patient care while controlling costs and space requirements. these types of procedure rooms have been created at largevolume institutions that can support a procedure room dedicated only to cied surgery. the procedures performed in this type of room include the use of pacemakers and defibrillators that are single chamber, dual chamber, or biventricular in operation. other procedures can include the use of temporary pacemakers, the use of implantable loop recorders, and lead and device extractions. device and lead extractions may also be performed in a surgical operating room (or) on the basis of the patient's condition or on the standard agreed on by the institution. advanced mapping and ep recording systems are not required, and the costs of equipping this type of laboratory are lower, which is the key advantage of this type of room. device-only laboratories are appropriate for high-volume centers that already have one or more fully outfitted ep laboratories. these procedure rooms are designed to the rigorous standards of ors (positive airflow, medical gas availability, surgical lighting, and substerile scrub area) but have high-quality fixed fluoroscopy and a full complement of ep and/or cardiac catheterization equipment. these rooms are ideal for procedures that may be combined with open or minimally invasive cardiac surgery and for lead extraction procedures. when not being used for hybrid surgical procedures, these laboratories can function either as fully functional ors or as fully functional ep/catheterization suites. procedures that can be performed include complex ablation procedures that involve ep and surgical components, left atrial appendage occlusion or clipping, epicardial lead placement, and minimally invasive valve replacement. some organizations incorporate special noninvasive rooms into their practice to accommodate patient care that does not require fluoroscopy or other specialty equipment. these rooms are often used to perform minor procedures such as cardioversions, tilt table studies, and noninvasive programmed stimulation defibrillation threshold testing. autonomic testing with head-up tilt table testing requires a procedure table that has the capability for 70º head-up tilt, an electrocardiogram (ecg) monitor, noninvasive blood pressure monitor, supplemental oxygen, and basic supplies. equipping these rooms is much less expensive than equipping a full procedural laboratory and can help improve patient flow and volume through a busy ep department. the room and equipment standards for pediatric ep procedures are similar to those for adult ep procedures, except for the availability of pediatric resuscitation equipment and drug doses as well as a wider inventory of smaller catheters. pediatric and congenital ep patients can require a combined procedure of ep and the need for cardiac catheterization, including angiography and possible intervention. thus, it is optimal (although not a necessity) for a pediatric/congenital ep laboratory to meet all the standards of a pediatric catheterization laboratory. pediatric ep procedures in young children should be performed in pediatric hospitals or hospitals that have a pediatric cardiology and ep service. an ep laboratory that is not physically attached to a hospital is considered a freestanding laboratory. freestanding ep laboratories can be privately owned, and when owned by physicians, there may be concerns about conflicts of interest (as discussed in section 12) . this arrangement presents challenges that stem from the separation of the laboratory from vital hospital services. in the event of a life-threatening complication, such as pericardial tamponade 2 or endovascular tear during lead extractions, 3 an emergency response from certain hospital-based services such as cardiothoracic surgery can become necessary, and even possibly lifesaving. performing ep procedures in freestanding ep laboratories on patients with clinical conditions that confer increased risk are relatively contraindicated. these include preexisting advanced heart failure and severe left ventricular dysfunction 4 ; recent myocardial infarction, recent stroke, chronic kidney disease, severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pulmonary hypertension, and severe/morbid obesity 5 ; and severe valvular dysfunction or prosthetic heart valve, chd (including atrial septal defect repair), active oral anticoagulation, advanced age, and pediatric age. procedures that necessitate lesion creation close to coronary arteries, such as aortic cusp ablation 6 and epicardial ablation, 7 carry a higher risk of intraprocedural myocardial infarction and should not be performed outside a hospital. as part of the consent process, patients should be informed that the procedure is being performed without on-site surgical backup. in order to ensure the safety of a patient undergoing a procedure in a freestanding ep laboratory, a functional and tested system must be in place to quickly transfer patients to a hospital with immediate surgical support in case of an unanticipated complication. the receiving program should be familiar with complications unique to the ep laboratory. there must be a standing agreement between the laboratory and the receiving hospital so that there is no unnecessary delay in the transfer process. the hospital environment plays an important role in shaping the structure and function of the ep laboratory. a "closed ep laboratory" is commonly present in academic institutions and limits physician practice to faculty members of the particular institution or university. in contrast, "open ep laboratories" allow credentialing and the participation of multiple physician groups, including those who do not hold faculty level appointments. such laboratory structuring is common in community and private institutions and is also present in some academic settings. whether an ep laboratory is open or closed is determined by the institution's leadership on the basis of economic, historical, political, and geographical factors that are often beyond physician control. an inherent difficulty in the open ep laboratory format lies in procedure scheduling for multiple physicians; a centralized scheduling structure that can arrange scheduling while organizing and prioritizing procedures on the basis of urgency and acuity is important to avoid conflicts and optimize patient care. the complexity and degree of invasiveness of ep procedures is dependent on the level of support provided by the hospital or other health care organization in terms of personnel, facilities, and equipment. anesthesia support is desirable for the safe performance of potentially lengthy and complex procedures. the role of anesthesia services in the ep laboratory is detailed in section 6. surgery backup must be immediately present for lead extraction procedures in which a lead to be removed is older than 1 year (or require tools other than a standard stylet to be removed if younger than 1 year from implantation) 8 , and mapping/ablation procedures require pericardial access. complex ablation procedures, such as atrial fibrillation and ventricular tachycardia (vt) ablation, should be performed only in hospitals equipped and prepared to manage these types of emergencies, with access to emergency surgical support when required. finally, high-risk procedures in critically ill patients, such as ablation of vt in patients requiring hemodynamic support with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, can only be safely performed in institutions offering comprehensive programs with active engagement from electrophysiologists, surgeons, and anesthesiologists. although such collaborations were limited to advanced tertiary care institutions in the past, the increasing availability of institutional resources and support has expanded the range of facilities in which complex procedures are performed to include private institutions. federal guidelines for the construction and retrofitting of health care facilities have been influenced by recent catastrophic events, such as the northridge earthquake of 1994, hurricane katrina in 2005, and the f5 tornado that made a direct hit on a hospital in joplin, mo, in 2011. in the mid-1990s, three formerly competing code writing agencies united to form the international code council. their mission was to develop a national construction code that, among other entities, would regulate the construction of health care facilities to mitigate the risk of damage due to seismic, wind, and flood dangers. known as the international building code, one of its versions has been adopted by every state. in addition, the federal emergency management agency, a branch of the department of homeland security, published revised guidelines for improving hospital safety in earthquakes, floods, and high winds. the primary legislative avenues for controlling the dissemination of expensive health care services are certificate of need (con) laws. as of 2009, 39 states still have a con process, law, or set of requirements. in most cases, the approval of con is based on the actual or projected volume of services provided in the procedural laboratories. as procedural volumes for percutaneous coronary arterial interventions have diminished at most tertiary referral hospitals, many hospitals have shifted some coronary interventional laboratory cons to ep laboratories. once an ep laboratory is established, the primary government body overseeing its operations, policies, and procedures is the joint commission (tjc). the guidelines for design and construction of hospitals and health care facilities published by the american institute of architects and the facility guidelines institute provide space and functionality standards for ep laboratories with a goal to improve work flow in the ep environment. (specific recommendations not derived from this document are based on the consensus opinion of the writing committee.) the minimal procedural area of a complete ep laboratory (not including control room space) is 350 sq ft of clear floor area. current electrical system regulations for health care facilities should follow article 517 of the national electrical code (nec) handbook. an uninterruptible power supply for all computer equipment is required. the air flow/heating, ventilation, and air conditioning design should comply with the guidelines for environmental infection control in the american institute of architects and the facility guidelines institute regularly publish the guidelines for design and construction of hospitals and health care facilities. 9 this document is recognized by federal and state authorities, and recently this document has included ep laboratories. it provides defined standards in terms of the space and functionality of ep laboratories with a goal to specifically improve work flow in the ep environment, acknowledging that the ep laboratory requires more space than an angiographic/interventional laboratory for supporting equipment and supplies. traditionally, however, the construction of an ep laboratory had no specific guidelines because of its special applications. the typical layout is generally derived from a cardiac catheterization laboratory, 9 which is not ideal for the performance of the full range of ep procedures. the limitations of direct adaptation of an angiography suite design to the practice of cardiac ep include space constraints relative to the special equipment used in ep procedures, the necessity to work on either side of the patient table, and the requirement to access the patient's upper chest for device implantation. ep laboratory plans should take into account not only the available space within the procedure room but also its location relative to pertinent services such as the patient prep area, recovery area, or, intensive care unit, the ward, and specialized resources such as an adjacent magnetic resonance imaging (mri) suite that might permit real-time mri imaging during procedures in the future. the rationale is to consider the proximity of all needed services in the overall design during the planning stage so that enhanced patient flow can be achieved. the aim of the planning committee should be to build a consensus on a minimum set of specifications that will meet the needs of the clinicians and support staff, and enable them to provide optimal patient care, while maintaining occupational safety for the staff. the ep laboratory needs as much space as is practical to ensure the freedom of movement of the operator and staff, to accommodate all equipment used, and to facilitate movement of staff in emergency situations. the recommended procedural area of a complete ep laboratory (not including control room space) is 500 sq ft or greater of clear floor area, although 350 sq ft is the absolute minimum requirement. there should be a minimum of 8 ft of clear space between the wall and the edges of each side of the patient table when it is positioned at the isocenter. enough clearance at the head of the bed should be allocated for anesthesia equipment on either side and sterile access to jugular vein entry sites, if employed, while allowing for free range of movement of the fluoroscopy c-arm. the ceiling height is dependent on the requirements of the x-ray/fluoroscopic equipment 9 (figure 1 ). preexisting laboratories that are being renovated where it is impossible to expand the gross area because of building and location constraints should follow federal and state code requirements, but due caution should be taken to meet suggested recommendations. the fluoroscopic equipment plays a major role in determining the amount of ideal space in the procedural area and could serve as the reference point. equipment can be either mounted on the floor or suspended from the ceiling. the latter configuration allows for the floor to be optimally cleaned; however, because of the amount of equipment that would need to be suspended from the ceiling (monitors, surgical lights, x-ray barriers, equipment racks, and anesthesia gas supply), a floor-mounted configuration may be more practical in some laboratories. it is best if x-ray generators and tanks are located in a space separate from the procedure and control rooms. the size and portability of the fluoroscopy unit is important in planning room size, especially when cabinetry and other fixtures are planned for installation on the walls within the procedural area. installation of cabinetry at the head of the bed is discouraged because it further limits space to allow free movement of the x-ray arm, anesthesia supply cart, and life support equipment. cabinetry for supplies frequently used during cases should be positioned on the side walls for easy access. the room should be wide enough to accommodate the cabinet and open door swing without impinging on the sterile field and traffic flow through the laboratory. most peripheral equipment such as recording systems, stimulators, and radiofrequency (rf) generators are made from multiple components, some of which need to be in a control room and others in the laboratory itself. it is strongly recommended that none of the modules sit on the floor. this can reduce sterility and cleanliness as well as put the equipment at risk of being damaged by fluids. a ceilingmounted boom removes all equipment from the floor and reduces damage to cables by allowing them to remain connected at all times. by placing the recording system amplifier, the rf generator, the mapping system amplifier, the stimulator amplifier and router, and other peripheral equipment together on a ceiling-mounted equipment boom, all cabling will be permanently placed and connected, reducing cable wear. the removal of rolling equipment carts from the room improves staff access to the patient. removing cables and equipment from the floor reduces the tripping hazard to the staff and risk of equipment damage. because additional portable ep equipment is often employed during a procedure, it is necessary to have ample power outlets installed to accommodate such needs. anesthesia gases are best supplied via a ceiling-mounted anesthesia boom, which should include two oxygen lines, one nitrous oxide line, one medical air line, two vacuum lines, and one waste anesthetic gas disposal line. 10 it should be equipped with at least one slide clamp for vacuum canister placement, which should allow the canisters to be located within 4 in. of the floor for ease of removal when full. the anesthesia boom should have a minimum of six electrical outlets, at least some of which should be on emergency (red plug) circuits in case of general power outage during a procedure. a mounted light controlled independently from the room lighting for charting in a dark room is a useful option. video can be routed from the anesthesia boom to display data from an anesthesia cart to monitors placed around the room. the hybrid laboratory has all the requirements of a full ep laboratory but has added features that allow it to serve as a fully functional operating suite. these laboratories are often larger and have the fluoroscopy equipment on a track so that it can be entirely removed from the surgical field. it is typically located within or contiguous to the other ors and has a full substerile scrub and supply area. the use of a hybrid laboratory for ep procedures is evolving. hybrid laboratories in which ep procedures are performed need to be outfitted with the appropriate ep-specific equipment, including ep recording systems, mapping systems, and programmed stimulators. procedures that might benefit from performance in this setting would include those where surgical intervention or extracorporeal hemodynamic support might be required, such as lead extractions, vt ablation procedures in patients with structural heart disease, and hybrid atrial fibrillation ablation procedures. although some ep laboratories house all the monitoring and stimulating equipment in the procedure room, it may be preferable to have a contiguous control room with an interposed leaded wall and large viewing window so that members of the team (apart from the primary operator, the circulating nurse, and the anesthesia professional) can work without exposure to ionizing radiation. the control rooms can be shared among two or more laboratories. a separate control room demands a full duplex intercom system so that there is no barrier to communication. the space required for a control room is not inclusive of the procedural area measurements. adequate ventilation should be supplied to account for excess heat production from the electronics. the counters should be at least 30 in. deep so that the monitors can be 20 in. away from the user. at least 160 in. of desk space is suggested for a laboratory with a singleplane fluoroscopy system and 180 in. of desk space for a biplane fluoroscopy system to allow for fluoroscopy monitors, a mapping system, a recording system, and a stimulator. an additional 45 in. of desk space is suggested for a two-monitor reading station or a single-monitor workstation ( figure 2 ). the participation of an ergonomics expert in the planning should be considered as a measure to comply with occupational safety and health administration standards. the ideal design for an ep suite should be similar to that of an or, including a substerile entrance with scrub sinks (dedicated or common). patient transport from the prep area to the ep laboratory and vice versa should be limited to a common egress that connects to hallways leading to the hospital wards and other areas. if the ep laboratories are placed in existing space that does not allow for or-quality substerile entrances and hallways, every effort should be made to prevent through traffic flow past the entrance to the ep laboratories where sterile procedures are being performed. ep suites require special consideration from electrical design engineers because there are multiple high load and electrically sensitive pieces of equipment in this wet environment. conduits used as wireways should follow the specifications of articles 376, 378, and 392 of the nec handbook. 11 the ep laboratory setup primarily involves the data and power cabling layout that connects equipment between the control room and the procedural area, and the following requirements should suffice, considering the few cables that need to be run in these enclosures. for rooms that are not equipped with ceiling-mounted equipment booms, the conduits should be at least two runs of 4-in.-diameter tubes that connect the procedure room to the control room through the floor, dedicated solely to ep equipment cabling (separate from x-ray equipment and power receptacle requirements). this conduit should be conductive and bonded to equipotential grounding. floor openings or ports should be concealed by an enclosure that should be fluid tight with protective grommets that will prevent cable insulation damage. the length/reach is dependent on the location of each cable termination linking the equipment, as specified by the ep representative who oversees the room project and design. for rooms equipped with ceiling-mounted equipment booms, cabling runs through ceiling trays connecting the control room to the procedure room boom. the trays can be used in conjunction with other equipment that terminates at the equipment boom as long as there is enough separation between power lines and data transmission lines to prevent electromagnetic interference (emi) induced by adjacent power lines running in parallel. open trays are preferable for ease of access above the ceiling and should be conductive and bonded to equipotential grounding. the length/reach is dependent on the location of each cable termination linking the equipment, as specified by the ep representative who oversees the room project and design. backup temporary cabling should be available in case of failure of conduit cabling during a case. current regulations for health care facilities should follow article 517 of the nec handbook. because the ep procedure room is classified as a "wet procedure location," the installation of an isolated power system with line isolation monitoring is required, which provides a layer of protection from the hazards of electric shock with the added benefit of line noise isolation because of its design. 9 in addition, all computer equipment directly related to the ongoing monitoring and treatment of a patient must have an uninterruptible power supply (ups). the ups may be integrated into the power for the entire suite, or individual ups may be placed in line for each central processing unit. the main purpose of the ups is to prevent the ep system, mapping system, or other critical imaging or monitoring system from going through a hard shutdown and full reboot procedure in case of a transient power outage or surge. other important electrical components of the laboratory, such as the imaging train, should be connected to emergency backup power so that cases can be completed even if line power is lost. power lines and data lines should be run separately and isolated from each other in different conduits to prevent emi from power line wiring induced through data line wiring that could affect optimal performance of the ep equipment. if open cable trays are used above the ceiling, careful consideration should be given to the placement of power lines and other fixtures that can be sources of emi. although power lines used on these runs do not necessarily involve enough energy to induce heating, it is still a good rule to follow the specifications of article 300.20 of the nec handbook as a reference. 11 adequate spacing of ep laboratory equipment in the procedural area should be followed. interface cables between the patient and the equipment (e.g., ecg cables and intracardiac catheter cables) should not dangle by the x-ray tube and should be kept neatly arranged by the side of the patient to provide easy access for troubleshooting purposes during the procedure. air flow should be of or quality. the design should comply with the guidelines for environmental infection control in health-care facilities recommendations from the centers for disease control and prevention and sections 5 and 6 of the healthcare infection control practices advisory committee document. 10 emphasis should be placed on the use of in-line filters or mechanical smoke evacuation systems to prevent airborne infective and toxic particles from the plume produced by electrocautery and similar equipment. the temperature control should support effective configuration for temperatures as low as 60ºf. this allows comfort for practitioners who are wearing sterile gowns, hats, and masks on top of lead aprons during long procedures. patient comfort should also be addressed, particularly as they are fully draped and may be only lightly sedated. the patient table should be flanked by large lighting squares or the equivalent to flood the main procedure area with light. appropriate grounding is required to prevent emi from these lights. the lighting squares should be tied to an x-ray pedal switch that can be turned on and off at will by the x-ray operator. additional spotlights that are dimmable from a distant wall switch are also recommended for procedures that require a darker environment to optimize glare reduction and visualization of display systems in front of the operator. there should be at least one overhead or light of surgical quality mounted on an articulating arm, strategically placed to be accessible for use on the left shoulder, right shoulder, or abdomen at either side of the patient. there should be sufficient range of motion to be able to focus light intensity at a steeper angle toward and into the implant pocket. two lights are optimal for reducing shadows. the preferred or light is mounted on a boom that extends from the ceiling and has free range of movement to focus the beam at the angles and distance optimal to adequately light the surgical field and device implant pockets. anesthesia and/or nursing should have a light over their workspace that is independent of the room lighting on either side of the patient table, which should be oblique at a distance from the x-ray c-arm. 9 for laboratory designs that employ a separate control room, there may be difficulties with the use of communication systems that link the operator in the procedure room to the control room staff. because critical processes such as timing of ablation onset and offset require close coordination between the bedside and the control room, the importance of good two-way communication for patient safety and quality of care cannot be overstated. the ideal equipment is capable of a always-on, two-way system because of the constant and instantaneous need to communicate. the ideal system is an always-on, full-duplex, two-way intercom system, with a toggle to silence unnecessary chatter from the control room. this requires electronic noise cancellation to prevent acoustical feedback and has variable effectiveness depending on room acoustics. a simpler solution is a oneway push-to-talk intercom, but this does not allow spontaneous back-and-forth communication. the use of wireless headsets is a favorable solution, which broadcasts spoken words directly to the headphone users, with simultaneous talk paths open as needed. whatever system is selected should be high fidelity, spectrum friendly, and encrypted to prevent eavesdropping and potential hipaa violations, making it a more expensive solution. procedural charting and operative reports should be part of the institution's electronic medical record. the network cabling and hardware should have a minimum capability of support for gigabit ethernet speed. 9 the data demands of imaging systems, including 3d electroanatomic mapping systems, are great and require larger storage repositories in comparison with the compressed images of major imaging equipment such as ultrasound and x-ray radiograph systems. there is an increased use of imaging created by computed tomography (ct) and mri, which are 3d in nature, necessitating high transfer speeds between the picture archiving and communication system (pacs) and the ep laboratory environment. collaboration with the information technology (it) department and its infrastructure within the institution is necessary in this venture. ep systems gather information in digitized format for patient records and review at a later time. it will be important for industry to develop a better and unified standard for storing and retrieving cardiac electrogram information. waveform information in ep is constructively different from image information and needs to be handled in a different manner. the complexity involved in translating the files without losing the ability to utilize the tool sets needed during review, and to scroll through the whole ep study, is a challenge. the digital imaging and communications in medicine standard is a more robust model to follow and should be the preferred method, when feasible. 12 for current equipment standards and needs, the recommendation is to involve the it department in the safekeeping of digital records of patient information. storing information in an enterprise-wide network repository managed by the health care it staff within the institution is recommended, as they are adequately equipped to comply with policies governing hospital data. data storage must be hipaa compliant 13 and must be maintained according to the laws of each individual state-typically 5-7 years for adults and 5-7 years past the age of maturity for pediatric patients. practically, the duration of data storage should be longer than the minimum requirement, because old invasive study data are often important in the management of patients decades later. electronic storage of all ep laboratory information could require 5-10 terabytes of space annually; therefore, the it department must anticipate commitment of these resources for this process. regardless of the equipment's capability to store to the network, the it department should be involved as long as they comply with the ep equipment manufactureres' recommendations. both single-plane and biplane fluoroscopic systems are suitable for the modern ep laboratory. a basic ep laboratory should be equipped with a monitoring system that includes 12-lead surface ecg and 24 intracardiac electrogram channels; advanced laboratories (e.g., those performing complex ablation procedures) require ep systems with 64-128-channel capabilities. a biphasic external defibrillator is required in each ep laboratory, with a backup defibrillator immediately accessible. an anesthesia cart that contains endotracheal intubation equipment, as well as sedative, paralytic, and anesthetic agents, should be readily accessible for all ep procedures. emergency trays should be immediately available for pericardiocentesis, thoracentesis, and thoracotomy. programmable electrical stimulators must provide reliable, accurate, and effective electrical stimulation. it is recommended that all ep laboratory personnel using the ablation systems are able to demonstrate familiarity and proficiency with the setup, operation, and characteristics of all ablation system(s) employed at their site. advanced mapping systems should be available for complex ablation procedures. ice may be useful as an adjunctive imaging modality during complex procedures. transthoracic echocardiography and transesophageal echocardiography should be readily available for emergency use and for adjunctive imaging in selected cases. integrated data display systems provide flexibility and efficiency in data display; it is advisable to have separate backup monitors in case of failure. patient safety and comfort are the most important considerations for the modern ep laboratory table. the ability to support a heavy patient is one of the most important features of the modern ep procedure table, with tables capable of supporting more than 200 kg being commercially available. the length and width of the table are also important considerations. although standard table lengths are usually sufficient to accommodate most patients, there is growing need for the increased width provided by bariatric surgical tables. motorized tables with adjustable height and a tilting capacity of up to 20º have become standard. tilting into the trendelenburg position may be helpful in cases of difficult subclavian venous access or internal jugular venous access in ablation and device procedures. reverse trendelenburg positioning can be helpful for patients unable to lie flat because of musculoskeletal or respiratory difficulties. table rotation up to 180º facilitates patient transport but more importantly provides better access to the table head in cases of emergency. this feature, as well as the ability to tilt sideways, may also be helpful for maximizing surgical exposure in hybrid or laboratories. given the need to perform both right-and left-sided procedures, having rails on both sides of the table is particularly useful for mounting equipment and tableside controls. finally, given the length of some ep procedures, in which patients may lay supine for several hours, a comfortable and supportive ep table pad is important. foam material is commonly used in ep table pads, but other materials are also available. although fluoroscopy remains the mainstay of ep procedures, it is imperative to reduce ionizing radiation exposure to patients, operators, and staff as best possible. specific issues related to radiation and limiting exposure are detailed in section 11. the complexity of procedures performed in the laboratory is the primary determinant of the specific fluoroscopy features needed. both single-and biplane fluoroscopic systems are suitable for the modern ep laboratory, and the choice of the system is dictated by the specific needs of the laboratory. in basic ep laboratories designed primarily for device implantation, a single-plane system is usually sufficient. biplane systems are often preferred in more advanced laboratories where ablation is performed, as these biplane systems can be converted to single-plane units for device insertion; however, the advent of 3d mapping technology has diminished operator reliance on biplane fluoroscopy. the introduction of digital imaging has been the most important recent change in fluoroscopic imaging. digital flat panel detectors permit reduction in radiation and provide excellent image quality with a physically smaller and thinner detector. these systems allow greater temporal resolution and contrast ratio with less image distortion and veiling glare and allow the acquisition of high-quality still images. the latter feature is particularly useful for procedures depending on the imaging of vascular structures such as coronary arteries, the coronary sinus, and its branches. floor-and ceiling-mounted units are available depending on the exact specifications and setup of the laboratory space. some digital fluoroscopic systems offer advanced imaging capabilities, which may be useful in ep procedures including rotational angiography, rotational ct imaging, and multimodality integration of 3d magnetic resonance and ct images. these features are generally more suited for advanced laboratories performing complex ablation procedures. three-dimensional reconstructed images from ct, mri, and rotational fluoroscopy can guide ablation planning, catheter navigation, and catheter ablation. 14 the pattern of myocardial scarring defined by delayed enhancement mri scanning can influence the method of access (endocardial vs. epicardial), catheter type, and type of mapping technology. 15 in the setting of atrial fibrillation ablation, a preprocedural 3d image can be helpful in cases of unusual atrial or pulmonary vein anatomy. creation of a 3d map during the procedure using a mapping system can obviate the need for a preprocedural 3d image. an ep system refers to the hardware and software programs that allow clinicians to record, display, store, and review data acquired during ep procedures. the monitoring system includes a computer workstation with both local and bedside high-resolution color display monitors, a recorder, amplifiers and filters for signal acquisition and processing, a printer, and device interface cables. the workstation contains an integrated computer that uses data processing software with amplifiers and adjustable filters to process and display electrogram signals and waveforms. at a minimum, the system should contain 12-lead surface ecg and 24 intracardiac electrogram channels, which is sufficient for the basic ep laboratory. advanced laboratories performing complex ablation procedures require ep systems with 64-128-channel capabilities to simultaneously record signals from different multipolar catheters and display hemodynamic data from arterial and/or left atrial pressure transducers. useful features for ep systems include a triggered sweep, template matching, and capability to save fluoroscopic images. these data are displayed on color monitors that include both real-time and review screens for visualization and analysis of electrogram signals during mapping and ablation. the number of available channels displayed on color monitors is configurable and differs among the various ep systems. storage capabilities are often included in ep systems with various hard disk capacities and digital media for archival purposes and retrieval of data. ideally, data should be stored in a central repository and be available to any workstation over the network. integration and interfacing with rf-generating devices, fluoroscopy, mapping, and ablation systems are also important components of the system. finally, the systems should be capable of communicating with institutional information systems and electronic medical records. resuscitation equipment is mandatory, given the potential for induction of malignant arrhythmias. a biphasic external defibrillator is required in each ep laboratory, with a backup defibrillator immediately accessible. routine preventative maintenance of external defibrillators should be performed, according to u.s. food and drug administration (fda) guidelines and manufacturer recommendations. 16 a crash cart containing standard advanced cardiac life support (acls) medications must be available to assist with the management of tachy-and bradyarrhythmias. standard acls medications should be available, including, but not limited to, epinephrine, atropine, dopamine, vasopressin, adenosine, amiodarone, and lidocaine, in addition to magnesium sulfate, calcium chloride, potassium chloride, and sodium bicarbonate. sedative reversal agents should also be available, including flumazenil and naloxone. it is essential that the laboratory be stocked with appropriate long needles, guide wires, and catheters for emergency pericardiocentesis and that all operators and staff are familiar with the use of this equipment. given the increasing complexity of ep procedures and the potential need for general anesthesia, an anesthesia cart that contains endotracheal intubation equipment as well as sedative, paralytic, and anesthetic agents is highly recommended. this includes a resuscitator bag and mask, a nonrebreather mask, suction equipment, and arterial blood gas kits. such a cart should also contain a separate monitoring system for ecg and hemodynamics, including a pressure transducer and end-tidal carbon dioxide monitor, and should be available even in cases not staffed by an anesthesiologist. finally, all modern ep laboratories should possess high-flow oxygen and vacuum for suctioning as detailed in section 9. programmable electrical stimulators are the mainstay of ep studies and must provide reliable, accurate, and effective electrical stimulation. modern programmable electrical stimulators have multiple output channels, usually ranging from two to four channels. it is important for these channels to be independent and isolated and to accurately provide stimuli of adjustable amplitude and pulse duration. burst pacing and delivery of one or more premature extrastimuli are standard features of all stimulators. in addition, some modern stimulators are fully automated and have the capacity of delivering several types of preprogrammed stimulation protocols to assess physiological parameters such as thresholds, sinus node recovery times, refractory periods, and wenckebach periods. in order to perform catheter ablation of cardiac arrhythmias, an ablation system is required in the ep laboratory. ablation systems generally consist of a generator, cables, and catheters for the delivery of energy and may or may not include a ground patch, depending on the energy source. the ablation systems should interface with ep monitoring and electroanatomic mapping systems. energy sources can be in the form of rf ablation, cryoablation, ultrasound ablation, microwave ablation, and laser ablation. rf and cryotherapy sources are the most widely clinically utilized, and a discussion of the other sources is beyond the scope of this document. rf ablation as a therapeutic modality is the most commonly used and has been proven to be highly effective and safe for the treatment of a wide array of arrhythmias. 17 irrigated rf energy ablation systems require an irrigation pump to infuse saline in either a closed-or an open-irrigated tip catheter. cryoablation systems consist of a cryocatheter, a refrigeration console with nitrous oxide, a coaxial tube for the delivery of nitrous oxide, and an electrical cable. during cryoablation, heat is removed from the tissue by using a refrigerant (nitrous oxide) in a closedirrigated tip catheter. cryoablation can be delivered at a single site (catheter based) or over a larger tissue area (balloon device). the selection of ablation modality depends on operator preference, patient size, 18 and ablation target. rf energy remains the most established modality for ablation. cooled rf technologies are generally employed where deep and/or transmural lesions are required, such as with vt ablation. either irrigated rf energy or the cyrothermic balloon ablation system is commonly used for atrial fibrillation ablation procedures, depending on operator preference. it is desirable for an ep laboratory to have more than one type of ablation system, but the selection of an ablation system and energy type is entirely discretionary. different catheters have different handling characteristics, and different ablation systems have different strengths and weaknesses. it is recommended that all ep laboratory personnel using the ablation systems are able to demonstrate familiarity and proficiency with the setup, operation, and characteristics of all ablation system(s) employed at their site. three-dimensional electroanatomic mapping systems are commonly used in the ep laboratory for the acquisition of accurate and reproducible electrical and anatomic information and display in 3d. reconstruction of complex cardiac geometry with direct nonfluoroscopic catheter visualization is combined with endocardial electrogram data to create a 3d map of the cardiac chamber. advanced signal processing can present acquired electrophysiological data in a variety of formats to direct the operator to optimal ablation targets. in addition, standard fluoroscopy, ct, mri, and intracardiac ultrasound images can be integrated with electroanatomic mapping systems to link electrogram information with anatomical structures. this allows nonfluoroscopic catheter localization, reducing radiation exposure during catheter ablation procedures. 19 mapping systems consist of a workstation computer, local and bedside monitors, fiber-optic media converter with a fiber-optic cable, an amplifier, diagnostic and ablative catheters, and a patient interface unit that provides the central connection of the computer system to catheters, cables, and the amplifier. the system can interface with recording systems and integrate with ultrasound, fluoroscopy, and ct/mri systems. the system consists of a workstation computer, local and bedside monitors, an amplifier, fiber-optic media converter with a fiber-optic cable, and a multielectrode array catheter. ice is often useful as an adjunctive imaging modality during complex procedures. it has the potential to improve both the safety and the efficacy of a procedure. dynamic visualization of intracardiac structures, catheters, and other procedural devices is possible using ice. the ability to use this modality in real time is an advantage that improves the work flow of the procedure compared with using other pre-or postprocedural augmentative imaging modalities. using ice to directly visualize and confirm the proper position of the transseptal needle on the atrial septum can minimize procedural complications, such as cardiac perforation. pulmonary vein stenosis can be avoided by using ice to confirm an ostial position of the lasso catheter during pulmonary vein isolation. 20 early detection of complications, such as pericardial effusion or intracardiac thrombus formation, can lead to earlier and more effective interventions. 21 fluoroscopic exposure and its associated risks can be minimized when navigation of catheters and procedural devices are guided by using ice. 22 the success of a procedure can depend on the recognition and successful navigation of challenging anatomy that can be detectable through ice, such as a prominent eustachian ridge during atrial flutter ablation, a crista terminalis ectopic tachycardia focus, or a ventricular arrhythmia involving the papillary muscles or aortic cusps. 23 contact of the ablation catheter with tissue can be verified before the delivery of ablative energy, and ablative effects on the tissue can be monitored by assessing morphological changes, including tissue swelling and increased tissue echogenicity. presently, two different types of ice systems are available: systems using a linear phased array transducer that produces a 90º image longitudinal to the catheter and systems that use a rotational transducer to display a 360º image perpendicular to the catheter. each system has relative advantages and disadvantages, and their selection is based on operator preference. some ultrasound catheters can work with 3d electroanatomic mapping systems and can import 2d ultrasound images to augment 3d electroanatomic mapping. 24 despite the potential value of ice, reviewed in detail above, it is important to recognize that clinical trials are not available to demonstrate that the use of ice improves the outcomes or safety of ablation procedures. although some operators and centers depend heavily on ice, many others use it only in selective situations. ice substantially increases procedure costs, requires an additional site for vascular access, and requires extensive training in order to accurately interpret the images. 25 catheter movement can be performed using robotic navigation systems, allowing for reproducible complex catheter manipulation, improved tissue contact and stability, and the potential for more efficient and efficacious lesion formation. because of the automated nature of catheter navigation using 3d anatomic mapping systems, fluoroscopic exposure may be reduced, especially for the primary operator, who typically performs the ablation procedure seated in the control room. this may also translate into less orthopedic strain from the use of lead aprons. two distinctly different types of robotic navigation systems are currently available. robotic arm systems use steerable sheaths to direct catheter movement. these systems can use a full array of conventional catheters, including irrigated ablation catheters. the rigidity of the sheath and the lack of tactile feedback increase the risk of cardiac perforation and pericardial tamponade. 26 pressure sensor technology is used to assess appropriate tissue contact and to avoid perforation, but can be confounded by indirect forces and tortuous catheter positions. a simpler robotic approach to control the catheter movement involves the use of a robotic arm to remotely manipulate a steerable ablation catheter exactly as an operator would manipulate the catheter directly. 27 although the operator sacrifices the tactile feel of catheter manipulation with this system, it allows the operator to move to a radiationfree space and to perform the ablation from a seated position. magnetic systems use two large banks of external magnets to manipulate a magnetized catheter. these magnets can be either solid magnets that are physically moved or electromagnets using electromagnetic field manipulation. specialized ablation catheters for these systems are available, including open-irrigated tip catheters. because the body of the catheter has no rigidity and the catheters are directed solely by a limited low-intensity magnetic field, the risk of cardiac perforation is virtually eliminated. 28 the constant magnetic force holds the catheter in contact with tissue, even during cardiac and respiratory motion, translating to potentially more precise and efficacious lesions. 29 the use of robotic navigation systems takes the primary operator away from the patient's side during the procedure; thus, subtle changes in clinical status that are usually noticed in close proximity to the patient or the tactile sensation of a steam pop may no longer be detectable. hence, close monitoring by an anesthesiologist and the nursing staff is of paramount importance when robotic navigation is being used. as the breadth of technologies in the modern ep laboratory has grown, so too has the challenge of displaying information in a meaningful and useful way. the model using a fixed number of separate monitors, each displaying a single signal, is not well suited for laboratories using multiple systems and performing complex procedures. modern advanced laboratories have increasingly taken advantage of integrated data display systems (iddss). these iddss replace the multiple fixed monitors with a single large screen that displays multiple signals, thereby allowing the physician and laboratory staff to display as many images as required in whatever layout they choose. not only do iddss enhance flexibility, they also diminish the physical requirements for monitoring, thereby liberating space within the ep laboratory. the drawback of iddss is the addition of another layer between the operator and the source systems that may be susceptible to image distortion or complete failure that would affect all signals. thus, it is necessary to have separate backup monitors for critical functions in case of failure. lastly, iddss should have a simple, intuitive user interface; otherwise, any benefit they provide would be outweighed by issues relating to the complexity of use. telemedicine has grown in many areas of medicine over the past decade, and ep is no exception. in fact, ep is better suited than most specialties to leverage this growing trend, thanks in part to the integration of many laboratory systems into a single interface and to advances in remote catheter navigation systems. remote diagnostics are already a reality because of the growth of several networks that link various laboratories and facilities together. physicians from a number of institutions can broadcast live and prerecorded procedures and perform real-time consultations with other participating facilities. remote surgery has been demonstrated using the current generation of remote catheter navigation technologies and has been further bolstered by the addition of newer laboratory integration systems. while the requirements for remote surgery are similar to those of remote diagnostics, there should be much less tolerance for latency and system responsiveness as well as enhanced fail-safe measures and the ability for local override. significant gaps in state, federal, and international regulations will need to be addressed before telemedicine can reach its full potential in this field. medical staff credentialing committees should be familiar with the training and credentialing standards for specialists in cardiac arrhythmias. staff physicians must have prerequisite training and appropriate credentialing reflecting expertise in the management and treatment of cardiac arrhythmias. because of the complexity of the ep procedures, patient safety and positive outcomes are critically dependent on the skill levels of the staff. additional staff is needed as the complexity of the case increases and more equipment is required. it is desirable that anesthesia services be an integral part of clinical practice in the ep laboratory. advanced practice nurses (apns) and physician assistants (pas) should be used in areas where they will have a maximum impact on patient care and where they can assume roles and responsibilities unique to their training and certification. at least one registered nurse should be present for every invasive procedure in the ep laboratory. industry representatives should function according to clear policies under the direction of the laboratory manager, staff, or physician. staff physicians must have prerequisite training and appropriate credentialing reflecting expertise in the management and treatment of cardiac arrhythmias. training requirements and guidelines for pacemaker/icd selection, implantation, and follow-up as well as catheter ablation procedures have been addressed by the american heart association (aha), american college of cardiology (acc), and hrs [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] and are addressed in section 7. physicians performing procedures in the ep laboratory often supervise the administration of intravenous sedatives given by the nursing personnel in the laboratory. therefore, all physicians in the laboratory should demonstrate proficiency in sedation pharmacology, patient monitoring, and airway management. there should be a credentialing process in the institution that establishes a standard for conscious sedation management. the ep laboratory medical director must be an expert in ccep and satisfy the above requirements, in addition to carrying out important administrative duties that include physician leadership, patient care clinical leadership, quality of care, and education. as a physician leader, the medical director is responsible for providing overall medical direction and supervision within the ep laboratory. the roles and responsibilities of the other ep staff physicians must be specifically outlined by the director so that there are clear measures by which the ep staff physicians are evaluated. ensuring staff members are appropriately credentialed and that they are maintaining cognitive and procedural competency is important for maintaining up-to-date health care provider standards. the laboratory director should work with the institution's leadership to establish specific trainingand volume-based credentialing and recredentialing criteria based on published clinical care guidelines (when available). those criteria should be understood and adhered to by all. the medical director must develop and implement quality measures that result in fewer complications, reduced cost, and successful patient outcomes. working closely with administrative staff to develop policies, procedures, and practice guidelines impacts accountability measures used by accreditation authorities, including tjc and the national committee for quality assurance. additional responsibilities may include planning or coordinating ongoing educational opportunities for all ep personnel, championing the ep service line, identifying budgetary savings and efficiencies, participating in or initiating purchasing of capital items that keep the service line current, and assisting as requested with the development and review of ep-related policies and procedures. policies should be compatible with other areas with which the ep service interacts, such as the prep and recovery areas, anesthesia, surgery, and the cardiac catheterization laboratory. faculty physicians typically work in a teaching hospital or affiliate institution. they must satisfy the same qualifications as above, in addition to those set forth by the accreditation council for graduate medical education (acgme). these requirements are quite rigorous, and failure to adhere to requirements may result in the program being placed on probation or loss of accreditation. although certain components of the procedure can be delegated to a trainee or other secondary operator, the laboratory's attending physician of record is ultimately responsible for all activities within the laboratory and for patient welfare. it is important for the staff physician to recognize that patient safety and successful outcomes depend greatly on effective communication in the ep laboratory. this communication should include preoperative discussions with all members of the team before the case is underway regarding specific patient needs. the physician should review the diagnosis, indications for the procedure, anticipated equipment needed, and potential findings of the procedure. the patient should have a clear understanding of what to expect postprocedure in order to minimize anxiety. after the procedure, clear communication of the procedure findings, postprocedure orders, and recommendations should be exchanged with the treatment team, including physicians, apns, pas, and nurses. secondary operators are those physicians assisting with a procedure who might or might not participate in certain aspects of ep procedures and who might bill separately for an area of expertise not provided by the primary physician in the laboratory (table 1) . their role is planned and limited to nonemergency procedures. the patient should be informed before the procedure of any secondary operators expected to be assisting with the case. the role of the fellow can be variable and dependent on the attending physician present in the laboratory. there are specific requirements that each fellow in training must satisfy in order to successfully complete his or her training and be eligible for the american board of internal medicine (abim) certification examination (or american board of osteopathic medicine for those individuals following the osteopathic route). the fellow should begin under the direct supervision of a key clinical faculty member from the training program. with ongoing evaluation and feedback, the fellow is given graduating responsibility. varying levels of supervision are appropriate depending on skill level and level of training. it is appropriate for fellows to perform components of the procedure without direct supervision (such as vascular access, catheter placement, device pocket incisions, and pocket closures), but the attending physician must be available to intervene promptly if any issues arise. it is desirable that anesthesia services be an integral part of clinical practice in the ep laboratory. an anesthesia group composed of anesthesiologists and certified registered nurse anesthetists (crnas) can provide a high level of perioperative/periprocedural care to patients undergoing ep procedures. having anesthesia services readily available for the ep service is advantageous. the anesthesia service can provide important educational assistance to nonanesthesia staff administering conscious sedation, such as training on the use of various sedation agents, and the use of special monitoring techniques such as capnography. patients undergoing ep procedures present special challenges related to sedation. it is imperative that sedation/anesthesia personnel function collaboratively with the electrophysiologist in the management of these patients during procedures. procedural issues relating to anesthesia management are discussed further in section 8. to ensure optimal safety and efficacy of interventional ep, it is important to emphasize the necessity of a multidisciplinary team approach. in this respect, the term allied professionals has been employed. allied professionals are defined as all nonphysician members of the health care team involved with the care of the patient in the ep laboratory. this includes, but is not limited to, registered nurses (rns), ep technologists, radiological technologists, certified nurse practitioners (nps), pas, crnas, patient prep and recovery staff, and or staff. other key personnel that are important for the safe and efficient function of the laboratory include quality assurance (qa) staff; information technologists; biomedical engineers; scheduling coordinators; purchasing, inventory, and supply personnel; and housekeeping. based on evidence-based practice and best practice patterns, it is important to acknowledge that there is limited published research regarding the roles and responsibilities inherent in ep. recommendations as to how these positions may be filled by any one of the several categories of personnel are discussed below. apns and pas can play major roles and serve many functions in the ep laboratory, as determined by the director of the laboratory. they should be placed in those areas where they will have maximum impact on patient care and assume roles and responsibilities unique to their training and certification. apns are often placed in clinic settings where they may evaluate and treat arrhythmia or device-related issues. they can make rounds on inpatients, make assessments, develop plans for care, write histories and physical exams, and admit and discharge patients. they can perform pre-and postprocedural evaluations and follow-up. particularly in nonacademic institutions or practices, an apn or pa may function as the most experienced or skilled nonphysician practitioner in the laboratory setting and thus function as a first assistant for many technical aspects of the procedure. each institution should have established policies defining the role of the apn and/or pa in the care of hospital patients. an rn should be present for every invasive procedure in the ep laboratory. the nurse must be familiar with the overall function of the laboratory as well as coordinate with the physician operator and the other team members. the nurse (either rn or crna) is the primary individual responsible for the direct observation, sedation, and nursing care of the patient during the ep procedure and must be prepared to respond to any emergency. the number and type of nursing personnel required in the ep laboratory will vary depending on the type of procedure, equipment used, and additional support staff assigned to the procedure. 35 ep procedures are complex by their nature, and it is essential that the nursing staff participating in such procedures provide safe, evidence-based care. in institutions where nurses are responsible for the administration of intraprocedural sedation, they are to follow institutional training and guidelines for the care of the patient. when a nurse is administering deep sedation, his or her focus should be only on monitoring patient status, vital signs, oxygenation, and level of sedation. however, during moderate or light sedation, this individual may assist with minor, interruptible tasks once the patient's level of sedation/analgesia and vital signs have stabilized, provided that adequate monitoring of the patient's level of sedation is maintained. 36 the nurse can also manage point-of-care testing for activated clotting times (acts), oxygen saturation, and blood gas measurements. in most states, only rns may administer medications and blood products. the nurse optimizes patient safety by adhering to policies, protocols, and procedures, such as completing the "active time-out" preprocedure and ensuring that the proper airway assessments are completed before the administration of sedation. keeping a record or charting during the procedure is generally the responsibility of nurses. in addition, training on the use of stimulators, infusers, and ablation generators is recommended so that nurses are able to function in multiple roles. overall, nurses are coordinators of all patient care in the laboratory and they oversee the care other allied professional-ep personnel are providing. because of the extremely complex and technical aspects of many ep procedures, there should be at least one additional person involved in the more complex procedures, in addition to the nurse who provides direct patient care. depending on the complexity of the procedure, there may need to be more than one additional person. in this arena, specific training, experience, and certifications may determine which team member occupies each role. for example, a nurse and a technologist may be equally capable of performing a certain duty or responsibility but economics, staffing availability, and the simultaneous performance of multiple duties can dictate who does each job in the laboratory. because of the multiplicity of roles, it is useful for members of the ep team to be cross-trained and be able to function in multiple roles and situations. there is a wide array of additional equipment that requires training to operate. this includes, but is not limited to, lasers, energy source generators, electroanatomic mapping systems, robotic and magnetic catheter navigation systems, echocardiography (transesophageal and intracardiac), and ct and mri imaging. in many laboratories, it is the technologist or nurse who monitors and operates the recording system. this activity requires a thorough understanding and knowledge of the electrophysiological properties of the heart as well as pacing protocols and ablation. the operator must be able to troubleshoot pacing problems and remain calm and functional in emergency situations. all technologists must have basic cardiac life support certification, and acls certification is preferred. in the pediatric laboratory, pediatric cardiac life support certification is required. as with the nurse, the technologist should have the ability to review, understand, and synthesize into practice new knowledge and practices. ep technologists perform as essential team members. they may be a first assistant, which requires in-depth knowledge of percutaneous procedures, catheters, sterile technique, energy generators, and integrated noninvasive imaging. they should be trained in the use, maintenance, and troubleshooting of all the equipment. ep technologists should be skilled in sterile technique, passing sterile supplies, and obtaining and performing point-of-care testing on blood samples. they are often the person who assists on device implant cases and lead extractions -roles that require fastidious adherence to sterile technique and an in-depth understanding of the implant process along with its risks and goals. a technologist or nurse may serve as the first assistant for an invasive case. the circulator is typically a nurse, but this role can be filled by a technologist, depending on the staffing mix in the laboratory, the scope of practice in this job description, and the institutional requirements. at least one department member should be a certified radiological technologist or equivalent technologist with expertise in the operation of fluoroscopic equipment as well as expertise in radiographic and angiographic imaging principles and techniques. requirements for the participation of a radiological technologist in fluoroscopic procedures vary from state to state. in conjunction with a qualified medical physicist, the radiological technologist should monitor radiation safety techniques for patients and laboratory personnel. in many states, the nuclear regulatory commission has specific regulations for who may operate ionizing radiation equipment and under what circumstances. it is imperative that these regulations are understood and followed in the laboratory for the protection of patients and staff. device programmers, mapping and recording systems, and some ablation systems may sometimes be operated by industry representatives. industry representatives must function according to clear policies under the direction of the laboratory manager, staff, or physician. they are often required to provide the institution with evidence of appropriate immunizations, competency documentation, and endorsement from their company before being allowed in the laboratory. they are generally allowed to have patient contact only under direct staff supervision. 25 during device implants or other device-related procedures, a clinical industry representative may be present under the direct supervision of the attending physician. they may bring device equipment to the laboratory, provide intraprocedural programming and testing, and may even be asked to participate in data collection related to device registries. a member of the ep laboratory staff, however, should be assigned the ultimate responsibility for the accurate and complete submission of data to national device registries. these industry representatives are often excellent sources of information and education for the regular ep laboratory staff. they may assist in the provision of formal training and education on device-related issues. 25 to ensure optimal safety and efficacy of interventional ep, it is important to emphasize the necessity of a multidisciplinary team approach. ep procedures are complex and include diagnostic, interventional, and therapeutic measures and should be performed by experienced personnel. because of the complexity of the ep procedures, patient safety and positive outcomes are highly dependent on the skill levels of the staff (table 2) . therefore, personnel dedicated to ep laboratory procedures are recommended. additional personnel are needed as the complexity of the case increases, and more equipment is required. the staffing mix may be influenced by regulations, regional practice patterns, type of institution (academic vs. nonacademic), credentialing bodies, and economics. cross-training of staff within the ep department maximizes staffing flexibility and is strongly recommended. the role of the ep department administrator is typically held by someone with broad knowledge of the field of ep. depending on the size and volume of the laboratory, the administrator may have no clinical obligations or may serve as the head nurse of the laboratory. the responsibilities can include, but are not limited to, the following: strategic planning in association with the medical director, managing operational issues, capital planning, budgeting, hiring, planning orientations and training programs for allied professionals, and other general administration duties. a nurse or a cardiovascular technologist, preferably with some business training or experience, is best suited for this role. in shared or combined cardiac catheterization laboratories and ep laboratories, there may be a common administrator overseeing both areas. in many departments, the manager is a nurse. the responsibilities of a nurse manager include an overall understanding of the day-to-day operations of the laboratory, management of preand postprocedural care areas, and direct participation in the observation and care of patients undergoing ep procedures. additional areas of responsibility include application of institutional guidelines for patient monitoring, medication administration, procedural sedation, and patient safety. staff competencies and proficiency in performing tasks required before, during, and after the procedure must be developed, updated, and reviewed on a regular basis. the nurse manager will collaborate with anesthesia, pharmacy, biomedical engineering, purchasing, equipment vendors, and housekeeping to coordinate the operation of the ep laboratory. all clinicians working in the ep laboratory have a responsibility to achieve and maintain the recommended credentials and continue medical education to optimize patient care. it is recommended that any non-ccep-certified physician who wants privileges for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation should complete formal training in this field as defined by the cocats criteria, achieve certification of competency in cardiac rhythm device therapy for the physician (ccds) from the international board of heart rhythm examiners (ibhre), and maintain an adequate volume of device implants to meet hospital-based credentialing criteria. for the benefit of patients, it is paramount that physicians be held to a high performance standard and that remediation, withholding recredentialing, or revocation of privileges occurs if criteria are not met. 31 all ccep board-certified physicians have completed at least 1 year of comprehensive subspecialty training in ccep at an acgme-approved training program 30 or had substantial experience and a career focus in ccep if they trained in an era before the development of formal ccep training programs. the majority of programs encourage a second year non-acgme advanced fellowship. the 2013 guidelines for advanced training in pediatric and congenital ep represent procedural requirements for those completing training. 37 the clinical competence statement on invasive electrophysiology studies, catheter ablation, and cardioversion, 34 supplemented by expert consensus statements on crna ¼ certified registered nurse anesthetist; cv ¼ cardiovascular; ep ¼ electrophysiology; md ¼ physician; np ¼ nurse practitioner; pa ¼ physician assistant; tee ¼ transesophageal echocardiography. * in procedures performed with deep sedation/analgesia, the crna or nurse administering sedation/anesthesia should have no responsibilities other than monitoring the patient. a second nurse or technologist must be available to circulate and document. however, in procedures performed with moderate or light sedation, this individual may assist with minor, interruptible tasks once the patient's level of sedation/analgesia and vital signs have stabilized, provided that adequate monitoring for the patient's level of sedation is maintained. 52 transvenous lead extraction, 8 catheter and surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation, 38 and catheter ablation of ventricular arrhythmias, 39 provides guidelines for appropriate training in ccep. this document is scheduled to be updated in the near future. as training standards evolve, these minimum requirements will be updated regularly. a successful passage of the abim ccep board examination is required to receive the certificate of added qualification in ccep. a similar but alternate pathway is available for doctors of osteopathy through the american board of osteopathic medicine. physicians for whom these pathways are unavailable because of international training or pathway choices and who are actively involved in the clinical management of ep patients may choose to certify through the ibhre with the certification examination for competency in cardiac electrophysiology. physicians performing complex catheter ablation procedures, such as atrial fibrillation/complex atrial tachycardia ablation and vt ablation, should treat at least 25 cases of each with an experienced mentor before becoming independent. alternatively, they should perform these procedures during their ccep training program, as recommended by the 2012 hrs/ehra/ecas expert consensus statement on catheter and surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation 38 and the 2009 ehra/hrs expert consensus on catheter ablation of ventricular arrhythmias. 39 a number of training pathways can lead to the practice of implanting cieds. although physicians who are board certified in ccep have met minimum training standards for cied implantation, some cardiovascular diseases (cvd) board-certified physicians and some american board of surgery-certified cardiac, thoracic, and general surgeons also devote a substantial portion of their practice to the prescription, implantation, and follow-up of cieds. the criteria established by the abim program requirements 28 and the recommendations for training in adult cardiovascular medicine core cardiology training document 33 strongly recommend that any non-ccep-certified physician who wants privileges for icd implantation in adults completes formal training in this field. achieving ccds from the ibhre for cied prescription, implantation, and follow-up is strongly recommended. credentialing is ultimately the responsibility of the credentialing committee of the individual hospital, who should be familiar with the training and credentialing standards for specialists in cardiac arrhythmias. although most major centers already follow the guidelines above, some centers allow less qualified practitioners to perform these ep laboratory procedures. unfortunately, hospital credentialing committees have substantial conflicts of interest that could lead to granting privileges to physicians without appropriate board certification and experience, as refusal of these credentials usually results in a loss of patients and revenues to competing institutions. ultimately, the patient pays the price when inappropriate credentials are allowed. all ep laboratory physicians should be subject to periodic peer review and recredentialing. important components in the recredentialing process should include a review of abim board certification and ibhre ccds status, case volume, patient outcomes, peer evaluation, and continuing medical education (cme). the specific criteria for recredentialing are determined by each individual hospital, but should generally parallel the following recommendations: abim ccep board certification and ibhre certification are limited to 10 years; to stay current for ccep, the physician must complete a series of cme and/or practice improvement activities 9 ; recertification examination for ccep and ccds are each required at 10-year intervals; to ensure that cognitive and technical skills are maintained, the physician's clinical competence must be evaluated and documented on a regular basis; it is the responsibility of the medical staff credentialing committee to ensure that physicians perform the necessary number of evaluations and procedures needed to maintain their expertise 31 and also that they participate in regular cme activities. the ep laboratory should have a robust qa process (see section 9), and physician outcomes should be compared with national benchmarks derived from the literature or databases such as the national cardiovascular data registry (ncdr) on a regular basis; regular 360º evaluations, including evaluations from physician coworkers, fellows, nursing staff, technical staff, and patients, should be considered as part of the recredentialing review process. for the benefit of patients, it is paramount that physicians be held to a high performance standard and that remediation, withholding recredentialing, or revocation of privileges occurs if criteria are not met. the physician leaders must be committed to working aggressively to maintain the highest standards of patient care in their laboratories. 40 7.1.3. pediatric training and credentialing paces, working in conjunction with hrs, has developed guidelines for advanced training in ep focused on pediatric patients and patients of any age with chd. the original guidelines, endorsed by the hrs and published in 2005, required at least 12 months of specialized training, and were followed by a 2008 document focused on the implantation of pacemakers and defibrillators in these populations. 41, 42 there are currently no third-tier board examinations for diplomates of the pediatric cardiology subboard of the american board of pediatrics. however, pediatric electrophysiologists are eligible to take the ibhre examination for physicians with special competency in ep, as that examination includes a pediatric module. paces has recently written a competency statement for training in this field. 43 that competency statement strongly recommended that all graduating fellows and active pediatric ep clinicians take the ibhre ep examination. the field of adult congenital heart disease (achd) is an important and expanding clinical domain that is typically staffed by clinicians who are competent in both pediatrics and internal medicine. cardiologists providing invasive ep care for this unique patient population can enter the field from either specialty, but a portion of their formal training must be focused on the complex anatomy and unique ep of achd. further recommendations on the expertise necessary to care for this patient group can be found in a recent consensus statement supported by aha/acc/hrs. 44 a board certification process for achd is being developed and is scheduled for implementation by 2015. nursing licensure, credentialing, recredentialing, continuing education, and laboratory training are affected by the requirements of multiple agencies, including federal and state governments, the health care organization, and occupational safety and health administration. the standards of professional practice for nurses employed in the ep laboratory environment have been defined. 33 all ep nurses should have a critical care or a strong cardiology background, acls certification, and, in the pediatric ep laboratory, pediatric acls. an extensive knowledge of cardiac anatomy and physiology, electrocardiography, pharmacology, and training in sterile technique is also required. nurses need to have a thorough understanding of catheter-based interventions and surgical procedures, cardioversion, arrhythmia discrimination, and emergency treatment of life-threatening arrhythmias and complications/emergencies. familiarity with fluoroscopic, electroanatomic, and echocardiographic imaging is a required skill set. annual or biannual competencies required for nurses working in heart rhythm service operations should include basic life support, acls, infection control, emergency and tjc preparedness, training in conscious sedation, charting, and patient safety. demonstration of competency in radiation safety, sterile technique, external defibrillator operation, unitspecific nursing protocols, act operation, and temporary pacemaker operation should also be mandatory. depending on the roles and responsibilities assumed by rns, competencies may be needed in the ep recording system and programmed stimulator operation, ablation, generator operation, mobile laboratory operations, sheath insertion/ removal, operation of vascular ultrasound, 3d mapping operation, and ice operation. certification offered by the (ibhre is an integral part of heart rhythm education, training expectations, and requirements. in addition to the standard certification requirements for being an rn, the ibhre offers two certification examinations for allied professionals designed to demonstrate a mastery of knowledge in cardiac rhythm management. continuing education requirements are highly variable by state and nurse specialty. nurses need to review requirements for the state in which they are practicing to ensure proper compliance and maintenance of certification, as requirements can range from no required continuing education to as many as 30 hours every 2 years. 45 the certification examination for competency in cardiac rhythm device therapy and the certification examination for competency in cardiac electrophysiology are required at 10-year intervals. the apn (usually a np) is educated through a certified graduate level np program, meets the requirements of the state credentialing bodies, and practices according to the american nurses association consensus model. 46 an np is trained to perform preprocedural evaluation, order and interpret diagnostic tests, and conduct postprocedural follow-up. after on-the-job training, nps may assist in diagnostic ep studies, catheter ablation procedures, and device implants but cannot serve as a primary operator. nps working in heart rhythm services should be certified in basic and advanced cardiac life support and have knowledge of radiation safety, sterile technique, external defibrillator operation, ice operation, and temporary pacemaker operation. among laboratories represented by writing committee members, nps (or pas) are involved in pre-and postprocedural care in more than 75% of the centers but only 19% of the centers employ these individuals for assistance in the procedural laboratory. there are no uniform recredentialing criteria for nps in the ep laboratory. nps are expected to maintain certification and licensure as per certification and state guidelines. the institution should establish volume criteria for the maintenance of procedural competencies. individuals with a variety of backgrounds and qualifications can work in an ep laboratory as a cardiovascular technologist or technician. there is no professional regulatory body for cardiac technologists, although efforts are underway in some regions to achieve this goal. most technologists have postsecondary education (university degree or college diploma) with extensive on-the-job training. industry-sponsored courses often provide supplemental education specific to technologies used in the ep laboratory environment. some cardiovascular technologist programs offer ep as a component within a cardiovascular technology program; there are also certificate programs available at some accredited colleges. 47 cardiovascular technologists can be credentialed as a registered cardiovascular invasive specialist, registered cardiology technologist, registered cardiopulmonary technologist, or registered cardiac electrophysiology specialist through an accredited association such as cardiovascular credentialing international. 46 advanced ep specialty certification is achieved through the ibhre. satisfactory institutional performance appraisals (e.g., through 360º assessments of skills, competency, professional development, decision making, and leadership) are recommended. the individual should treat a sufficient volume of cases to maintain competency. if the technologist is ibhre certified, then the maintenance of certification through continuing education or certification examination is required. the pa is an advanced practice professional who is trained through a graduate level university program to perform many tasks, including preprocedural evaluation (history and physical examination and diagnostic tests) and postprocedural follow-up under the direct supervision of the physician. 48, 49 after on-the-job training, pas may assist in diagnostic ep studies, 3d mapping, catheter ablation procedures, and device implants, but cannot serve as a primary operator. institutional internal certification, minimum volume of annual cases to maintain competency in invasive ep, performance appraisal, and maintenance of continuing education should be a requirement for a pa practicing in the clinical ep laboratory. there are no uniform recredentialing criteria for pas. they should perform a minimum number of procedures as determined by the ep laboratory director and ep laboratory manager and demonstrate current competence on the basis of the results of ongoing professional practice evaluation and outcomes. industry employed allied professionals (ieaps) are hired employees of a medical device company who may serve as assistants in the ep laboratory. the hrs published a statement on the clinical role of ieaps in 2008. ieaps should provide technical assistance only on the manufacturer-specific products they represent, and they must work under the direct supervision of the responsible physician. 25 although ieaps may contribute substantially to patient care in some settings, overreliance on their service may lead to a lack of continuity of care, suboptimal patient education and counseling, and issues with liability and accountability. among laboratories represented by writing committee members, approximately 90% of the laboratories use ieap support in most or all device implant cases, and two thirds of the laboratories use ieap support in most or all 3d mapping cases. preparation for ep procedures requires a preprocedural history and physical examination by a physician, np, or pa. as many management strategies for arrhythmias require chronic and/or periprocedural anticoagulation, careful evaluation, assessment, and planning are needed. in patients undergoing pacemaker or defibrillator lead extraction, or who require pericardial access for epicardial ablation or left atrial ablation ligation, additional preparation may be required on a case-by-case basis, such as typing and crossmatching of blood products in select patients and immediate availability of thoracic surgical backup. in most diagnostic and ablation cases, rhythm active drugs (including β-blockers and calcium-channel blockers) are discontinued five half-lives before the procedure to allow the target arrhythmia to be induced, mapped, and ablated. a complete description of the procedure, including the anticipated success rates and possible complications, is best delivered in the outpatient setting before the ep procedure. a "time-out" must be performed immediately before the initiation of the procedure when all key personnel are present. health care facilities should insist that clinicians administering or supervising the administration of moderate sedation meet the requirements of the american society of anesthesiologists. anticoagulation is necessary for all left heart procedures with heparin (activated clotting time z250-350 seconds) or with bivalirudin in patients allergic to heparin. it is important to achieve the lowest possible noise signal with all recording systems. all physicians and staff are required to be familiar with identifying all potential procedural complications and to understand their role in managing them. the decision for patient discharge takes into account procedural detail, patient age and health status, potential for complications (such as blood loss), and the ability of the patient (or caregivers) to evaluate signs of concern. the procedure report should include, at minimum, all the following: the primary and secondary operators, the indication for the procedure, names and doses of any medications administered, catheter/pacing/icd lead model and serial numbers, insertion sites and intracardiac destinations, findings and procedure performed, complications encountered, and fluoroscopic exposure (fluoroscopy time, radiation dose, and the dose-area product) by an advanced cardiac life support (acls)/pediatric advanced life support (pals)-certified nurse. preparation for ep procedures requires a careful preprocedural history and physical examination by a physician, np, or pa to confirm the reason for the procedure that day and identify all comorbidities that could adversely impact procedure outcome. a thorough medication history, including allergies, must be gathered. the patient needs to be evaluated for factors that will impact anesthesia management (adequacy of airway, history of anesthesia experiences, obstructive sleep apnea, and physical indicators for difficult intubation). all adult patients should have recent (usually within 2 weeks) laboratory work, including electrolytes, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, complete blood count, and, if taking anticoagulants, prothrombin time. all women of childbearing potential, including girls older than 12 years, should have serum or urine pregnancy testing within 2 weeks before the procedure. the need for a preprocedure laboratory exam in healthy children undergoing elective electrophysiological testing is not clear and is not common practice. as many management strategies for arrhythmias require chronic and/or periprocedural anticoagulation, careful evaluation, assessment, and planning are needed. among the considerations are the agent used, thromboembolic risk, bleeding risk, comorbidities, laboratory values, and availability of reversal agents or blood products such as fresh frozen plasma. consideration should be given to performing additional preprocedural transesophageal echocardiograms or the use of intracardiac ultrasound to reduce the risk of complications. in patients undergoing pacemaker or defibrillator lead extraction or who require pericardial access for epicardial ablation or left atrial ablation ligation, additional preparations may be required, including typing and crossmatching of blood products, availability of thoracic surgical backup and/or or, and, in some cases, intraprocedural transesophageal echocardiogram. many patients are taking one or more medications to control the heart rate and/or rhythm at the time of an ep procedure. in most cases, rhythm active drugs (including β-blockers and calciumchannel blockers) are discontinued five half-lives before the procedure to allow the target arrhythmia to be induced, mapped, and ablated. in patients undergoing anatomically based ablation, withholding these drugs may not be necessary. for most patients, the ep laboratory is an unfamiliar and intimidating environment, one in which an equally unfamiliar procedure is about to be performed. a complete description of the anticipated events is best delivered in the outpatient setting before the procedure day. education as to the planned agenda, the other participants (nurses, technologists, ep doctors, and anesthetists/anesthesiologists), and the nature of some of the equipment in the laboratory is important to ease the patient's anxiety and aid in their cooperation during the procedure. many of the technical terms used to describe the procedure are foreign to the patient; the staff must take care to use lay language in their descriptions, to evaluate the patient's ability to learn and preference how to learn, and to assess the patient's comprehension. this role is usually filled by an rn familiar with the procedure. the requisite process for informed consent is detailed in section 12. critical components include ensuring patient understanding, full disclosure of the risks and alternatives to the planned procedure, and the opportunity for the patients to ask questions and fully discuss their concerns. the patient education and consent process must be completed before the administration of any sedative or anxiolytic agents. in the case of pediatric patients or adult patients with cognitive impairment, education must be given and consent requested of the patient and the legal guardian. a time-out must be performed immediately before the initiation of the procedure when all key personnel are present. all members of the team are to cease their activities while one member recites two patient identifiers (i.e., name, date of birth, and medical record number), the type and laterality of the procedure, the name of the operator, and any known allergies. all members of the team must agree on all points before the procedure can commence. 50 the goal of analgesia and anesthesia in the ep laboratory should be to provide a safe, nontraumatic experience for the patient. the administration of anesthesia varies among case types and among institutions, from anxiolysis or moderate procedural sedation by an advanced cardiac life support (acls)/pediatric advanced life support (pals)-certified nurse under the supervision of the cardiac electrophysiologist 51,52 to monitored anesthesia care or general anesthesia administered by an anesthesiologist or crna under the supervision of the anesthesiologist. the health care institution must require those administering or supervising moderate sedation who are not anesthesiologists to meet the requirements of the american society of anesthesiologists to obtain privileges. 53 credentialing for this privilege must be periodically renewed. if intravenous procedural sedation will be used, the physician must establish an american society of anesthesiologists classification and mallampati score for the patient before the procedure. 36 it is necessary to have these assessments done before the procedure so that, if necessary, alternate plans for sedation may be arranged to optimize patient safety and minimize procedural delays. medications typically employed include etomidate, propofol, ketamine, fentanyl, midazolam, methohexital, and inhalational agents. individual states regulate what medications can be administered by nonanesthesiologists. as the provision of sedation is a continuum and the depth of sedation may vary, best practice is that all patients receiving moderate or deep sedation be evaluated by continual observation of qualitative clinical signs, pulse oximetry, noninvasive blood pressure monitoring, heart rate and rhythm, and monitoring for the presence of exhaled carbon dioxide to ensure the adequacy of ventilation unless precluded or invalidated by the nature of the patient, procedure, or equipment. 51 monitoring equipment should be in working order and have appropriate audible alarms. in pediatric cases, factors to be considered for the choice of sedation or general anesthesia include young age, preexisting medical conditions, presence of chd, airway issues, physician or family choice, and the length and complexity of the procedure. the 2002 naspe position statement on pediatric ablation delineated the types of anesthesia (conscious sedation, moderate sedation, and general anesthesia), and these remain applicable. 54 regardless of whether the administration of sedative agents is under the control of the electrophysiologist or another caregiver, the electrophysiologist must have a working knowledge of the effects of the agents used and how they might impact the electrical aspects of the procedure (such as arrhythmia inducibility and effects on blood pressure) or interact with other medications that may be given. deep sedation or general anesthesia can minimize patient discomfort, can benefit the ep procedure by preventing patient movement, and is necessary during defibrillation threshold testing. an immobile patient facilitates accurate and precise 3d mapping and reduces risk during transseptal puncture, pericardial access, or ablation in close proximity to critical structures. note that in cases where the assessment of phrenic nerve function is important for a favorable case outcome (such as placement of a coronary vein branch pacing lead or ablation within the right superior pulmonary vein), paralytic dosing should be reduced or eliminated. improved safety, efficacy, and procedure times have been shown with the use of general anesthesia with certain procedures such as atrial fibrillation ablation. 55 using high-frequency ventilation can further minimize respiration-related cardiac movement during ablation. 56 although adequate sedation should be administered to ensure patient comfort because certain arrhythmias such as atrial tachycardias and outflow tract vts can be dependent on adrenergic tone, excessive sedation can result in the inability to induce the clinical arrhythmia. in cases in which an adrenergicdependent arrhythmia is suspected, sedation must be minimized until the clinical arrhythmia is induced and mapped. deep sedation is usually administered while performing ablation to prevent patient movement. when assessing the end point in these cases, care must be used to differentiate the effect of sedation from the actual elimination of the arrhythmia. although the risk of infection is extremely low with ep catheter procedures, 57 appropriate sterile techniques should be maintained. this includes sterile preparation of all access sites, such as the groin and neck. if there is the potential for pericardial access, the subxiphoid region, and possibly the parasternal and apical regions, should also be prepped and draped. in cases with a higher risk of cardiac tamponade, sterile preparation of the subxiphoid region can be considered at the onset of the procedure. catheters with a smaller french size and fewer electrodes are more flexible, exert lower axial force, and may carry a lower risk of perforation, 58 but should perhaps be avoided because of difficulty maintaining stable catheter position. catheters with more electrodes can facilitate rapid recognition of arrhythmia activation patterns and are particularly beneficial at sites such as the coronary sinus. smaller electrodes and narrower interelectrode spacing detect a more local activation signal and can provide more precise activation mapping, but may be less maneuverable. activation confined to a small structure or circuit, such as the his bundle or an accessory pathway, however, may be difficult to localize with narrow electrode spacing. the field of signal detection can be increased either by changing to a catheter with wider electrode spacing or by reconfiguring the electrode pairing. with this wider field of view, anatomical localization is decreased. some diagnostic catheters are designed with electrodes in a specialized spatial configuration, such as circular/ring, basket, or star-shaped catheters. these catheters can enable rapid deciphering of an activation pattern even with a paucity of arrhythmia. the number of catheters and recording sites should be adequate to achieve the desired end points of the procedure, but not so many that vascular damage or obstruction or intracardiac entanglement could occur. anticoagulation is necessary for all left heart procedures with heparin or bivalirudin in patients allergic to heparin. 38, 39 even in patients with therapeutic international normalized ratio on warfarin, heparin must be administered for left heart procedures, though typically in lower doses than in patients not taking warfarin. for right heart procedures, there is no evidence favoring routine use of anticoagulation; in cases where there is concern that the patient is at an increased risk for thromboembolic complications (prolonged procedure, known or discovered patent foramen ovale), some centers administer heparin for anticoagulation. selection of the mode and catheter for catheter ablation is operator dependent. catheter factors such as torque delivery, axial stiffness, steerability, and introducer diameter affect device selection. ablation modes, including rf, cooled rf, laser, and cryothermy all have their strengths and weaknesses. the goal is to achieve a therapeutic ablation by identifying the ablation target, maneuvering to that site, and then destroying enough tissue to prevent arrhythmia initiation/propagation while minimizing the risk of collateral injury. the use of open-irrigated tip catheter ablation may result in the infusion of 2-3 l of volume during the case, which can precipitate heart failure in susceptible patients. 59 multielectrode or "single-shot" ablation systems are being developed for the treatment of complex substrates such as atrial fibrillation. experience with many of these technologies is limited. a preferred device for these applications may emerge in the future as our experience increases. selecting the appropriate ablation catheter is a process that involves a correct interpretation of the arrhythmia mechanism, a firm understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of the different catheters and energy sources, and the need for the responsible use of resources. 60 8.2.6. optimizing signal recording bipolar intracardiac recordings are standard in most laboratories because they theoretically detect only near-field signals, unlike unipolar recordings that incorporate both near and far-field components. 61, 62 far-field signals can still be detected in bipolar recordings but are typically a lower amplitude and frequency. unipolar recordings can be helpful in mapping sites of focal activation, such as ventricular insertion sites of accessory pathways in preexcitation syndromes and idiopathic outflow tract ventricular arrhythmias, in which deep sharp qs configurations signify a site from which activation emanates (i.e., site of the earliest ventricular activation). the unipolar signal can help clarify the content of the bipolar electrogram (near vs. far-field), the timing of actual local depolarization (intrinsicoid deflection of the unipolar signal), and the relative proximity of the tip vs. the ring electrode to the ablation target. the accurate interpretation of potential ablation target sites involves correctly differentiating local from distant activation as well as from electrical noise. noise troubleshooting is a complex issue and involves many variables. it is necessary to be familiar with the basics of signal acquisition provided in appendix 1 to correct noise issues. an inadequate signal-to-noise ratio will result in physiological signals being obscured by ambient noise with loss of critical information. at the onset of the procedure, steps should be taken to ensure that the signal quality is optimized for successful mapping. this should include the following: (1) choosing the appropriate electrode spacing, (2) setting the high-pass filter high enough to exclude low-frequency artifacts, such as respiratory drift, (3) setting the low-pass filter low enough to exclude high-frequency noise artifacts, (4) turning on the notch filter that excludes the 50-60-hz bandwidth typical of electrical interference, and (5) gaining the signal appropriately to visualize low-amplitude signals of interest while minimizing the magnification of noise artifacts. it should be noted that using the notch filter on bipolar intracardiac signals can introduce ringing to sharp simple signals, making them appear fractionated. this is a particular concern when targeting fractionated potentials in cases of vt and atrial fibrillation. if the laboratory and equipment are properly grounded and the electricity in the laboratory is conditioned, there should be no 50-60 hz noise on the intracardiac signals. lower gain recording should be employed if the electrogram signals exceed the recording range of the amplifier. efforts should be made, working with the facility's biomedical engineering personnel, to achieve the lowest noise signals possible. steps toward this goal include appropriate equipment grounding and shielding of cables, scheduled maintenance of connecting cables with replacement if contact plugs lose continuity, maintaining the shortest distance traveled by all electrical cables, ensuring that cables are off the floor and removed from potential hazards such as wheeled carts and cleaning solutions, and maintaining separation between high-voltage lines, such as power cables, and low-voltage lines used for transmitting the patient's electrical signals. dealing with complications in the ep laboratory has several components: avoidance, recognition, and response. to the extent possible, complications should be avoided by adhering to standard techniques and practices. when a complication occurs, the outcome for the patient hinges on how quickly a problem is recognized and appropriately evaluated as well as how quickly and appropriately the response to the incident rectifies the situation. even the most careful and skilled operator will have occasional unavoidable complications (table 3) one of the most important risks in device implantation procedures is infection. the device implantation laboratory should be regarded as an or, with the same attention to sterile technique. hats, masks, and shoe covers should be worn in the procedure room when the sterile field is exposed. efforts should be made to restrict traffic in and out of the procedure rooms and minimize the number of personnel in the room. studies have demonstrated that microbial counts increase significantly in unoccupied ors when the door is left open to the hallway. 69 after explanation of a device from an infected pocket, the room should undergo cleaning according to standard procedures employed in the or for contaminated cases. the use of preoperative antibiotics has been conclusively proven to reduce cied infection. 70 administration of an antibiotic, usually a first-generation cephalosporin, 1 hour before implantation is required. in light of the prevalence of the colonization with methicillin-resistant strains of staphylococcus, some operators choose vancomycin in patients at higher risk of infection, although data are lacking to support this practice. vancomycin is a suitable choice for patients with penicillin allergies. if vancomycin is selected, it should be administered within 2 hours of the procedure. 71 the instruments and components used in the device implant laboratory must be opened in a clean air environment. by doing so, bacterial contamination of these instruments and components will be kept to a minimum. all personnel in the room must wear a cap and mask at all times, and all who are in contact with the sterile field must perform a complete surgical scrub and must be gowned and gloved. the operative site(s) should be prepared with an antiseptic agent. although these agents eliminate the immediate bacterial count on the skin surface at the operative site, hair follicles may prevent complete sterilization of the skin. hair clipping close to the skin in the prep room, rather than shaving, is recommended because bacteria on the skin surface begin to recolonize within 30 minutes in the presence of hair follicles despite complete sterilization. 72 some centers instruct patients to use preprocedural home cleansing kits. site preparation with alcohol-based solutions should be allowed to dry completely before draping. the combination of evaporating alcohol, supplemental oxygen, and electrocautery poses a significant fire risk in the surgical field. in some cases, additional femoral venous access for the placement of a temporary pacing catheter may be warranted (e.g., lead extraction and pacemaker-dependent patients with an inadequate escape rhythm who are undergoing generator change). 8 large-bore venous sheaths are useful for rapid volume resuscitation in the event of vascular tears during lead extraction, and arterial access facilitates beat-to-beat monitoring of blood pressure. (table 4) complications associated with acute cied implantation are often technique related. attention to detail will minimize the risk of difficulties related to the implant procedure. venous sheaths may be removed at the end of the procedure if no anticoagulant has been administered, with pressure held for 10-20 minutes. if heparin has been administered, waiting until the act is more than 175 seconds (o250 seconds if the patient is receiving therapeutic warfarin) before sheaths are removed decreases the likelihood of bleeding and hematoma formation. reversal of heparin effect with roentgen (r) is the unit of radiation exposure in air. the total charge produced in air per unit mass by ionizing radiation is easily measurable with survey instruments. gray (gy) is the international system of units (si) of absorbed radiation dose of ionizing radiation, which has replaced the term radiation absorbed dose (in rad). one gray is the absorption of 1 j of ionizing radiation by 1 kg of matter (equivalent to 100 rad), and it assesses the potential biological risk to that tissue. the u. s. unit for absorbed dose is rad. 1 gy ¼ 100 rad. equivalent dose sievert (sv) is a measure of equivalent dose, and is also an si unit. it takes into account the different probability of effects that occur when the same amount of absorbed dose is delivered by different types of radiation (protons vs. x-rays). it is equal to the absorbed dose in gy multiplied by the radiation weighting factor, w r , and other modifying factors. the w r is 1 for x-rays. the equivalent dose can be used to assess radiation risk if the person's whole body is uniformly irradiated. for partial body exposure, such as cardiac electrophysiology, additional correction is necessary to assess the radiation risk. effective dose is used to assess the risk when only a part of the body absorbs energy from radiation. since some organs in the body are more sensitive to radiation effects than others, the equivalent dose is multiplied by the appropriate tissue weighting factors. this terminology is used to assess the risk of radiationinduced cancer and hereditary effects. for example, the effective dose for a typical chest x-ray radiograph is 0.0001 sv (0.1 msv). the u.s. unit for sievert (sv) is rem. 1 sv ¼ 100 rem. as low as reasonably achievable (alara) standard is a system for limiting the amount of radiation a person receives. radiation exposure should be justified on the basis of the assumption that there is no threshold below which ionizing radiation is free from harmful biological effects and that shielding from radiation exposure is needed, no matter how low the dose. kerma is an acronym for kinetic energy released in the material. kerma is measured in gy. kerma-area product (p ka ) is the integral of air kerma (absorbed dose to air) across the entire x-ray beam emitted from the x-ray tube. p ka is a surrogate measurement for the entire amount of energy delivered to the patient by the beam. p ka is measured in gy á cm 2 . another term for this is the dose-area product (in gy á cm 2 ). reference air kerma (k a,r ) is the kerma-area product at a specific point in space relative to the fluoroscopic gantry (the interventional reference point) during a procedure. it is measured in gy. peak skin dose is the highest dose of radiation exposure on any portion of a patient's skin during a procedure. protamine is employed in many laboratories to more rapidly reverse heparin effect and allow almost immediate sheath removal, although one must be prepared to treat uncommon but sometimes severe protamine reactions. 64 vascular closure devices are uncommonly used in ep, 64, 65 but are an appropriate choice for arterial closure. after atrial fibrillation ablation, the reestablishment of therapeutic anticoagulation soon after sheath removal is desirable to lessen periprocedural stroke risk but there is no consensus on the optimal regimen or timing. when mild anesthesia is used, vital signs and oxygen saturation should be monitored continuously until the patient is conscious and communicative. access sites, cardiac rhythm, and neurological state should be assessed every 15 minutes during the first hour and then periodically thereafter. late complications, such as access site hematomas and hemodynamically significant pericardial effusion, can develop after the patient leaves the postprocedural recovery area. if a patient received midazolam during the procedure and a dose of its antidote (romazicon/flumazenil) was administered, the patient must be monitored for a rebound effect of midazolam. if general anesthesia was used, patients usually recover in a postanesthesia care unit. procedural complications that can arise after the patient leaves the laboratory area (or even after hospital discharge) are listed in table 4 . a process for tracking postprocedural complications should be in place as part of the laboratory's qa process (see section 9). postprocedure anticoagulation is recommended in patients who are at high risk of stroke on the basis of evaluation tools such as chads 2 or cha 2 ds 2 -vasc scores. in many laboratories, chronic warfarin therapy is not interrupted during either device implantation or ablation procedures in patients who are taking it for stroke prevention in the setting of atrial fibrillation or mechanical heart valves; the procedure is safe, with the international normalized ratio ranging from 2.0 to 3.5. 35, 64 in patients with insulin-dependent diabetes, the morning insulin dose is typically halved on the day of the procedure and glucose is periodically monitored during the procedure and the patient is treated accordingly. the setting for ep procedures may be outpatient, 23-hour observation, or inpatient. the decision for discharge takes into account procedural detail, patient age, and health status, the potential for complications (such as blood loss), and the ability of the patient (or caregivers) to evaluate signs of concern. 67 this is a medical decision and should be determined irrespective of reimbursement issues. the procedure report should include, at a minimum, the following: the primary and secondary operators; the indication for the procedure; names and doses of any medications administered; intake, output, and estimated blood loss; catheter/pacing/icd lead model numbers, serial numbers, insertion sites, and intracardiac destinations; findings and procedure performed; complications encountered; and fluoroscopic exposure (minutes; mgy; dose-area product). patients who receive excessive radiation exposure during a procedure (typically 43000 mgy, but requirements vary by state) must be notified and followed up for evidence of skin damage. ideally, this information is stored in a database for qa purposes. recordings made during the procedure (electrograms and fluoroscopic and mapping system images) should be archived on digital media (ideally on a network, or alternatively on a cd or dvd) for future reference, if needed. 64 pediatric ep procedures on small and young children should be performed in centers where there is pediatric surgical backup. procedures on adult patients with chd can be performed in pediatric or adult facilities by physicians who have expertise in the area of chd and the potential arrhythmia substrates of patients with chd. there are special considerations for performing pediatric ep procedures, including unusual arrhythmia mechanisms, small patient size, and the effect on future patient growth. issues that pertain to ep laboratory standards and practice for pediatric ep and patients with pediatric and adult chd with rhythm abnormalities differ from those pertaining to adults and are not confined to issues of patient and cardiac size compared with the adult patient. the decision-making process for interventions has implications for patient quality of life and development. success, failure, and procedural factors related to intervention therefore span many decades. a significant factor in treating cases involving young patients in the ep laboratory is the need for age-appropriate supportive care. arrhythmia mechanisms in young patients vary by age 72 and influence decision making. patient size can dictate the use of and expertise with smaller ablation catheter sizes or the use of esophageal pacing if vascular access is limited, such as is the case in neonates. knowledge of ablation lesion formation and potential expansion in an immature myocardium is critical to the care of pediatric patients. 73 children and young adults will experience decades of device-related issues compared with the typical adult patient. these issues should affect decision making in terms of timing and location of cardiac ep devices, accounting for growth, potential need for multiple extractions and replacements, and issues of venous occlusion. for patients with chd, these factors are complex and affect the decision to intervene. surgical interventions for all forms of chd have resulted in improved survival rates, 72 and the details of these surgical interventions are critical in the analysis of rhythm substrates in the ep laboratory. more complex pediatric chd survivors comprise an increasing percentage of the adult chd population. 72 it is recommended that procedures in pediatrics and patients with chd be performed by (1) pediatric cardiologists, (2) a collaboration of adult and pediatric cardiologists, or (3) an adult cardiologist with established interest and expertise in adult chd. the indications for catheter ablation in the pediatric population derived from an understanding of the natural history of arrhythmias in young patients, likely rates of procedural success and complications, and the risk of recurrence and have been reviewed in prior publications. 54, 74 the guidelines for the assessment of the asymptomatic young patient with wolff-parkinson-white syndrome are published as a joint paces/ hrs statement. 75 in the pediatric population, the presence of chd affects the expected results of ablation and recommendations for intervention. the guidelines for the implantation of cardiac rhythm devices in young patients and patients with chd were last updated in 2008. 76 epicardial pacing is used for those in whom transvenous pacing is contraindicated, such as prosthetic tricuspid valves, right-to-left intracardiac shunts, and small patient size, or for those undergoing concomitant heart surgery. the majority of icds are implanted via the transvenous route, but this may not be possible in some individuals because of anatomical constraints. because icd leads are larger and prone to fibrosis, patient size limitations for transvenous systems are considerable. although established in adults, the indications for cardiac resynchronization therapy in children are less certain and are based on retrospective reviews, rather than randomized trials. 77,78 because younger patients may have a longer life span after ep procedures than do adults, the lifetime risks of malignancy and birth defects (stochastic risks) are higher. adult patients with chd incur increased radiation exposure resulting from the electroanatomic complexity of cases and the need for multiple procedures. strategies for radiation dose reduction as detailed in section 11 should be aggressively implemented. the most significant complications in small children include pericardial effusion, pneumothorax, atrioventricular block, and death. 79, 80 animal and clinical studies have shown the potential expansion of scar tissue with maturation 70 and the risk of late coronary artery injury 79 potentially related to ablation location. the risk of atrioventricular block is increased by small patient size and septal pathways, presumably because of the smaller anatomical dimensions of structures. smaller tip catheters, lowered rf energy, shorter lesion duration, and the use of apnea and pacing techniques may diminish risk. 81 cryoablation is perceived as being safer, but may have a higher recurrence rate compared with rf lesions. 82 it is recommended that ep laboratories conducting procedures on pediatric patients have cryoablation capability. the procedure setting for invasive ep studies and ablation for pediatric and congenital ep patients may be outpatient or inpatient. the decision for discharge takes into account procedural detail, patient size, potential for complications, and the ability of the parents to evaluate signs of concern. the protocol for ep device placement or revision is mostly less than 1 day of observation, but generator changes in older patients may not require more than 6 hours. young patients with new devices are monitored overnight to administer periprocedural antibiotics, evaluate for pneumothorax or hemothorax, evaluate the device parameters, check lead location, and manage pain. the goal of sedation in the pediatric and congenital ep laboratory should be to provide a safe, nontraumatic experience for the patient by considering young age, preexisting conditions, presence of chd, airway issues, family choice, and complexity of the procedure. the 2002 naspe position statement on pediatric ablation delineated the types of anesthesia (e.g., conscious sedation, moderate sedation, and general anesthesia), and these remain applicable. 54 personnel responsible for sedation, anesthesia, and administration of medications must be experienced with pediatric and congenital ep patients, and pals and acls certification should be maintained. all physicians performing ep procedures should be knowledgeable regarding sedation, monitoring, and airway management. allied health professionals (e.g., nurses, apns, and pas) can be involved with sedation of a patient, if directly supervised by a physician. the room and equipment standards for pediatric ep procedures are similar to those for adult ep procedures (see sections 4 and 5) but must have a cardiac defibrillator specifically for use with children, a code cart meeting pediatric needs, and age-appropriate anesthesia equipment. pediatric and congenital ep patients may require a combined procedure of ep and hemodynamic catheterization, including angiography and possible intervention. thus, it is desirable that a pediatric/chd ep laboratory meet the same standards as a pediatric catheterization laboratory. general recommendations for ep laboratory staffing are detailed in section 6 and table 2 . pediatric and congenital ep guidelines recommend that the facility and laboratory staff should be appropriate for the patient population and pediatric and chd interventional and surgical experts be urgently available during laboratory procedures. 42 all members of the team should be trained in pals (when treating a child/infant) and acls (if treating an adult). training and board certification pathways employed by physicians who perform ep procedures on pediatric and congenital ep patients include the pediatrics and internal medicine pathways (see sections 6 and 7). recommended staffing for pediatric cases is detailed in table 3 . while laboratory staff roles are similar to those outlined in section 6 for pediatric cases, these staff should have expertise in performing cardiac procedures in pediatric and congenital ep patients. pediatric ep procedures should be performed (earlier than the teenage years) in centers where there is pediatric cardiovascular surgical availability. for procedures performed on patients in their teenage years or procedures on adult patients with chd that are performed in adult or mixed pediatric and adult institutions, a cv surgical plan should be formalized to accommodate on-site emergencies (notably, cardiac perforation) and a rapid transfer made to a pediatric cardiovascular center should the anatomy of the patient require this expertise. the postprocedural care can be performed in a separate periprocedural area, the general cardiology floor, or the intensive care unit. continuous telemetry should be available for the evaluation of heart rhythm. the environment for postprocedural care should be appropriate for patient age and development. the nursing and physician staff should be experienced in the care of pediatric and congenital ep patients. a process for tracking postprocedural complications should be in place as part of the laboratory's qa process. an essential component of a successful ep laboratory is to have an internal qa/quality improvement (qi) process in place, in addition to public reporting requirements. components of the qa/qi process should include national requirements for tracking (e.g., device implants), minimum acceptable complication rates (e.g., infections), and compliance with national registries, including the ncdr icd registry. it is the responsibility of each institution to ensure that staff credentialing, maintenance of certification, and necessary continuing medical education requirements are met. procedure outcomes, including success rates and complications, should be documented and recorded. data acquired from the ep laboratory qa process should be used to benchmark the complication rates and outcomes of both individual practitioners and the overall ep laboratory. physicians should participate in regularly scheduled qi and/or peer review meetings to maintain privileges and evaluate procedural appropriateness. a quarterly ep laboratory morbidity and mortality conference should be mandatory, with attendance documented. a qa process for the equipment should be established that provides a mechanism to demonstrate optimal function and operation of the equipment and that offers staff training in equipment maintenance, setup, and operation. given the often poorly defined relationship between case volumes and outcomes, a more appropriate measure is to ensure that all major complications are reviewed by the qa committee and handled as described in the previous section. high-quality, consistent care delivery in a busy cardiac ep laboratory requires standard protocols for procedures, communication channels, and documentation. an essential component of a successful ep laboratory is to have an internal qa/qi process in place, in addition to public reporting requirements. this requires a commitment from facility administrators to provide adequate staffing, including a committee chair, staff coordinator, and funding for collecting and managing data. the goal of the program should be to motivate and encourage physicians and staff to participate and to take initiative in the qa/qi process and overall success of the laboratory. it is acknowledged that there is little published data on the qa/qi process in the ep laboratory and that expert consensus is the primary basis for our recommendations. further research and development of quality metrics specific to the practice of cardiac ep is ongoing. to begin the qa/qi process, its components should be identified. these components include national requirements for tracking (e.g., device implants), minimum acceptable complication rates (e.g., infections), and compliance with national registries, including the ncdr icd registry. a qa/qi program must ensure that key data are collected prospectively and systematically. when the qa/qi team is identifying potential quality metrics, either strong scientific evidence or expert consensus must support the metric. the metric must measure areas important to patient care, and it is best if it covers an aspect of practice where there is a gap in patient care. the data must be available in a usable format for future analysis. these data allow the laboratory to benchmark its performance and provides a reference by which appropriate changes can be made. provider qualifications are typically well established by national guidelines and certification bodies. it is the responsibility of each institution to ensure staff credentialing, maintenance of certification, and necessary cme requirements are met (see section 7) . practitioners should be expected to adhere to published practice guidelines unless the reason for deviation is documented. clinical situations not directly addressed by the guidelines inevitably arise and require judgment and skill to address. periodic peer review of cases that fall outside the guidelines is recommended to ensure appropriate delivery of care. the guidelines evolve and, by definition, require a consensus of data before they can be written and revised. the writing group recognizes and encourages the development of new clinical pathways and tools. this development is best achieved through research protocols that adequately capture patient demographic characteristics, procedure characteristics, and outcomes. the research consent process ensures that patients are aware that the treatment being offered is beyond the current recommendations of the practice guidelines. procedure outcomes, including success rates and complications (and ideally including 30-day outcomes), should be documented and recorded. the writing group recognizes that success for some procedures requires clinical follow-up (particularly atrial fibrillation and vt ablation procedures). in these instances, an acute end point for the procedure should be specified (e.g., pulmonary vein isolation, noninducibility for vt, or creation of a planned rf ablation lesion set based on the results of an endocardial voltage scar map) and documentation should indicate if the end point was achieved. an assessment of freedom from arrhythmia recurrence after 1 year of followup should be performed. risk-adjusted models are not well developed by which the relative frequency of complications and successful outcomes among different patient populations can be interpreted and physician results compared. therefore, the interpretation of success rates and complication rates requires judgment by peers. physicians should participate in regularly scheduled qi and/or peer review meetings to maintain privileges and evaluate procedural appropriateness. a quarterly ep laboratory morbidity and mortality conference (stand-alone or as a component of another conference) should be mandatory, with attendance documented. the modern cardiac ep laboratory depends on many complex hemodynamic and physiological recording systems, advanced imaging systems, advanced mapping systems, and multiple ablation systems. rigorous processes must be established to ensure that (1) a qa process for equipment is established; (2) equipment is tested and demonstrated to be functioning appropriately, both on a routine basis and immediately before a case in which the specific item will be used; verification of equipment function should be included in the time-out procedure; (3) ep laboratory staff are appropriately trained in the maintenance, setup, and operation of the equipment; and/or (4) representatives from the vendor are available, qualified, and cleared by administration and occupational health to participate in the operation of the equipment before, during, and after the procedures. competencies in clinical skills, acls, pals (when appropriate), sterile technique, radiation safety, and fire safety should be assessed on a regular basis. the ep laboratory requires processes be in place to ensure proper communication within the ep laboratory and with other hospital services. within the laboratory, protocols for emergency situations (such as tamponade or ventricular fibrillation refractory to defibrillation) can make the difference between an organized, streamlined, successful resuscitation effort and a chaotic effort during which leadership is absent, team members duplicate some activities and neglect others, and ultimately a tragic but potentially avoidable outcome occurs. beyond the boundaries of the ep laboratory, communication between the ep team and other health care professionals is essential, particularly during handoffs from one care team to another and at the time of patient discharge. it is the role of the qa/qi committee to oversee that excellent communication processes are developed, maintained, and adhered to by the staff. data acquired from the ep laboratory qa process should be used to benchmark the complication rates and outcomes of both individual practitioners and the overall ep laboratory. for practitioners with complication rates above the benchmark, an objective unbiased peer review of the relevant cases is critical to determining whether a deviation in the standard of care occurred. because event rates are low and riskadjusted models are not well developed for the ep laboratory, peer review is particularly important. practitioners should not be penalized for accepting higher risk and/or more challenging cases. however, if reckless behavior or inadequate skills or knowledge is deemed to be present and a deviation in care occurs, verbal and written communication by the chair of qa is imperative. this communication should include a clear plan for corrective action and documentation of potential future actions if corrective action is not successful. a link between operator case volume, skills, and outcomes has been documented in some but not all areas of cardiac ep, yet controversy and conflicting data remain. specific case volumes for training are outlined by the abim 29 (table 3) , and for clinical competency they are available in the hrs clinical competency statements. 8, 17, 33, 38, 39, 42 given the often poorly defined relationship between case volumes and outcomes, a more appropriate measure is to ensure that all major complications (see table 3 ) are reviewed by the qa committee and handled as described in the previous section. a prospective plan to acquire data in an accessible and functional database is an essential building block for any qa/qi process. without objective, reliable data to measure outcomes, no meaningful effort at qi can be undertaken. minimum data that should be recorded in a searchable aggregate form include patient demographic characteristics, relevant history of present illness, medications, cied product information data, and data on outcome and complications from any invasive procedures. patients with cied should be identifiable by the device that has been implanted to permit rapid identification of patients who may have received defective hardware in the event of a recall or other notification from the manufacturer or fda. the field of medical informatics is on the verge of exponential growth. registries such as the acc/ncdr icd registry have identified specific data fields that should be captured for participation in the registry and compliance with payer mandates. 83 beyond these basic requirements, recommendations for more detailed database fields are included in clinical guidance documents for the management of patients with atrial fibrillation and for the management of patients with vt. 38, 39 these standard data elements provide an opportunity for ep laboratories invested in research to aggregate and/or compare their data with that of other laboratories working in the same field. to date, qa efforts in pediatric and congenital ep have centered on the creation of large ep procedural registries. 84, 85 in late 2010, a paces taskforce began to develop and implement a selfsustaining multicenter qi registry known as map-it. presently, the map-it taskforce is creating a registry of patient-centered late outcome measures of catheter ablation procedures. for the first time, an empirical and data-derived method of risk/complexity adjustment for pediatric and chd ep procedures, known as the compass score, has been developed. the future of qa efforts for procedure-based subspecialties will require the benchmarking and reporting of risk-adjusted "patient-centered" outcome measures. widespread implementation of the map-it initiative within paces should satisfy this need. fluoroscopy equipment should report three parameters: fluoroscopy time; radiation dose (air kerma, in gy), a measure of deterministic injury potential; and the dose-area product (in cgy á cm 2 ), a measure of stochastic injury potential. a minimum of 0.5-mm leadequivalent protective apron, thyroid shield, and eye protection should be used by ep laboratory personnel. all lead should be tested at 6-month intervals to check for cracks or leaks. risks of acquisition of infectious diseases by health care workers can be minimized by adherence to current infection control guidelines. the field of cardiac ep is greatly dependent on fluoroscopic imaging for the placement of catheters and device leads into the heart. this results in significant radiation exposure to the patient, the operator, and the laboratory staff. while this exposure cannot be eliminated in most cases, attention to fluoroscopic technique can minimize radiation dose. competencies in radiation safety should be completed yearly by the ep laboratory staff. some states mandate fluoroscopy licenses be obtained by all personnel using fluoroscopy and renewed periodically, including physicians and radiation technologists. nonionizing radiation, such as microwave or infrared radiation, can cause heating but not molecular damage to cells. ionizing radiation, such as β, γ, and x radiation, strips electrons from atoms and causes molecular injury to dna. ionizing radiation has great potential for damage to tissue, including burns and malignancy. understanding the basic definitions and terminology used to describe ionizing radiation is helpful when trying to understand the potential effects on the human body (see table 4 ). 86 11.1.2. biological risks from radiation exposure radiation effects are described by their deterministic and stochastic effects. 87 deterministic effects are harmful tissue reactions that are determined by an absorbed threshold dose. radiation-induced skin burns are an example of deterministic effects. 88 stochastic effects include malignancy and heritable effects and are not determined directly by the dose, but a higher dose increases the probability of an adverse outcome. human tissue radiosensitivity varies directly with the rate of cellular proliferation and number of future divisions and indirectly with the degree of morphological and functional differentiation. the most sensitive tissues include the bone marrow, spermatocytes, and intestinal crypt cells. 87 local skin injury is the most commonly encountered deterministic effect in cardiovascular medicine, with changes noted at doses above 2 gy. findings often do not appear until weeks after exposure. radiation exposure increases lifetime risk of fatal malignancy. the as low as reasonably achievable standard was derived from the biological effects of ionizing radiation vii report. 89 this report makes the assumption that cancer risk increases proportionally with radiation exposure and that there is no radiation dose that is without risk. all personnel working in the laboratory must be aware of the as low as reasonably achievable standard. a skin threshold dose of 2 sv should not be exceeded. because the prevalence of fatal malignancies continues to increase over time after radiation exposure, children and young adults are more susceptible to these complications in their lifetimes. adult patients with chd incur increased radiation exposure resulting from the electroanatomic complexity of cases and the need for multiple procedures. a normalized x-ray dose at a specific kilovolt peak 1 m from the source, total fluoroscopic time, backscatter correction factor, and source-to-skin distance can be used to estimate radiation exposure. 90 a direct measurement of radiation doses at multiple sites can be performed with lithium fluoride thermoluminescent dosimeter sensors and optically stimulated luminescence. the highest exposure to patients has been observed with a median skin entrance dose of 7.26 rem (range 0.31-135.7 rem) at the ninth vertebral body. this dose is predicted to be associated with a lifetime excess risk of malignancy to the female breast, active bone marrow, and lung of greater than 700 cases per million undergoing routine catheter ablation. operator exposure was highest at the left hand, waist, and left maxilla. 91 fluoroscopy equipment should report three parameters: fluoroscopy time; radiation dose (air kerma, in gy), a measure of deterministic injury potential; and the dose-area product (in cgy á cm 2 ), a measure of stochastic injury potential. radiation exposure is a superior metric to fluoroscopy time; reliance on fluoroscopy time is discouraged. the united states nuclear regulatory commission annual dose limits for radiation are 0.50 sv for skin, arms, and legs; 0.15 sv for eyes; and 0.05 sv for the whole body. the fluoroscopy dose for each case should be recorded in the medical record and accessible to patients. the predominant strategy for minimizing radiation exposure to patients is to minimize the radiation dose. 86, 92 the most effective approach is to minimize fluoroscopy pedal time. operators should develop the habit of tapping the fluoroscopy pedal rather than standing on the pedal for a long period of time. if the eyes stray from the fluoroscopy screen, the foot should come off the pedal immediately. decreasing the fluoroscopy pulse rate will significantly reduce dose at the cost of temporal resolution of the image. supplementation of fluoroscopic imaging with nonfluoroscopic electroanatomic guidance systems by using stored fluoroscopy loops rather than cine loops and using pulsed fluoroscopy will reduce the total procedural dose. as the x-ray tube gets closer to the patient, x-rays at the skin entry point increase and the risk of deterministic injury also increases; thus, the operator should position the table at a comfortable height with some distance between the tube and the patient. if the image intensifier is not positioned as close to the patient as possible, the image will be magnified but the radiation dose will be much higher. to magnify the image, use the appropriate magnification mode. both geometric and electronic magnification increases dose to the patient. doses may be limited effectively by collimation, limiting the field of view with shutters as much as possible. for example, reducing the diameter of the field of view by 29% will reduce the radiation dose by half. steeply angulated projections should be avoided, and if used, the c-arm should be repositioned somewhat throughout the procedure to avoid delivering radiation to the identical skin entry site. depending on which procedure is being performed, local shielding of the patient's thyroid and gonads can be employed. 93 since the stochastic effects of radiation exposure are cumulative, the caregiver should be sensitive to the lifetime exposure of the patient to ionizing radiation. there has been active discussion among regulators on implementing a system for lifetime tracking of radiation exposure to patients, but the tools for this type of system are not available, and therefore it is not presently mandated. 94 it is important to emphasize that radiation exposure is dependent on the age and condition of the equipment. thus, aggressive limitation of fluoroscopy pedal time is desirable, but those efforts may be futile if the dose rate is high because of a high frame rate or employment of an old imaging train. it is now an accepted standard that fluoroscopy dose, not only fluoroscopy time, is entered in the permanent medical record for each fluoroscopic procedure. ideally, the peak skin dose, the reference air kerma, the kermaarea product, and the fluoroscopy time should be recorded for every case. 95 a review of fluoroscopy use by individual operators should be part of every laboratory's qa process. the primary approaches used to reduce radiation exposure to the operator and laboratory staff are increasing distance from the source, scatter reduction, and dose limitation. radiation dissipates in proportion to the square of the distance from the source, and so even a modest effort to move away from the tube will significantly reduce exposure. radiation scatter occurs as radiation from the generator tube enters the patient and is partially reflected or refracted by body tissues. scatter from the patient is the main source of radiation exposure to the patient outside the imaging field and to the operator. the operator and laboratory personnel must be protected from exposure to the scatter radiation with shielding. a minimum of 0.5-mm lead-equivalent protective apron, thyroid shield, and eye protection should be used. proper table shielding can dramatically reduce the scatter radiation escaping into the environment. scattered radiation exits the body at all angles but is greatest on the same side of the patient as the x-ray source because only 1%-5% of radiation completely penetrates the patient's body and exits on the other side. 91 therefore, proper undertable shielding is paramount. shield extensions above the table rail and a contoured ceilingmounted shield in contact with the patient's torso will substantially reduce operator exposure. since radiation doses decrease with the square of the distance from the source, the operator should perform the procedure as far from the radiation tube as is practical. barium-impregnated drapes can further reduce radiation scatter in the procedure field. 96 all recommendations described above for limiting total fluoroscopy dose will also reduce the operator and laboratory staff radiation exposure. radiation exposure to a pregnant ep laboratory worker is a special situation and should be resolved on a case-by-case basis. it is recommended that radiation exposure to the pregnant staff member, as measured by a waist dosimeter (under the lead apron), should not exceed 0.05 rem/mo, or 0.5 rem for the entire pregnancy. 35 additional layers of lead can be worn over the abdomen to further protect the fetus. the fda regulates fluoroscopy equipment manufacturing and has dose limits for systems with automatic exposure control. 97 states regulate the safe use and operation of radiationproducing machines, such as fluoroscopic imaging systems. tjc's sentinel event is an unexpected occurrence involving death or serious injury. prolonged fluoroscopy that exceeds doses of 1500 rad (15 gy) to the skin is a reportable sentinel event and requires an institutional response. a qualified medical physicist should perform initial acceptance testing and annual testing to ensure optimal image quality and radiation dose. unfortunately, assuming that fluoroscopic equipment is functioning properly, the most important factor in radiation exposure to patients and staff is operator knowledge and behavior. tjc recommended (but did not mandate) credentialing standards for fluoroscopists, 98 and the recommended curriculum was endorsed by hrs, american college of cardiology foundation, aha, and the society for cardiovascular angiography and interventions (scai). 86 the training of ep physicians and staff in radiation physics, radiation biology, and technological developments in x-ray imaging systems and x-ray dose management is highly variable, and physician credentialing and recredentialing has no requirement regarding knowledge of radiation safety. it is therefore incumbent on the hospital leaders to establish high local standards and to track fluoroscopy use and behavior. lead-equivalent aprons required for radiation protection of staff are heavy and present a substantial physical burden to the interventional cardiologist. 99 historically, lead aprons were made using 0.5-mm lead-equivalent materials, with weight per unit area of these garments being 7 kg/m 2 . 98 an increased risk of cervical spondylosis is a known consequence for cardiologists who wear protective garments while standing for long hours performing procedures. 87 orthopedic problems and user fatigue associated with the continued use of heavy aprons contributed to the development of lowerweight lead-equivalent materials that are commonly used for protective garments today. modern nonlead 0.5-mm leadequivalent protective garments have a weight reduction of 30% or more than do traditional lead aprons. 98 that modern aprons are lighter might be expected to lessen, but not eliminate, orthopedic discomfort and injury. it is important to emphasize that all lead should be tested at 6-month intervals to check for cracks or leaks. along with weight, there are several other physical and ergonomic aspects of radiation protection garments that should be considered. to minimize discomfort, garments must fit correctly and should be tightened around the midsection to shift weight from the shoulders to the hips as much as possible. there are several garment designs that are customized for various uses. many interventional cardiologists choose a two-piece garment consisting of a skirt and vest (including internal frame), both of which should be snugly tightened around the midsection. such garments are frequently designed to "wraparound" the wearer and typically provide the fully specified lead-equivalent protection from radiation only in the front where the garment overlaps. a thyroid shield should always be used, 100 and leaded glasses should be worn to minimize the risk of developing cataracts. 101 tableside alternatives to lead-equivalent garments include a floor-mounted radiation protection cabin and a ceiling-or gantry-mounted suspended radiation protection system. 99, 102, 103 both these systems are designed to remove the weight burden of radiation protection while allowing tableside access in a sterile working environment. because the weight of the shielding is not borne by the operator, thicker, heavier materials can be used. this results in a 16-78-fold decrease in radiation exposure to the operator. 103 the disadvantages of these systems are that they restrict the motion of the operator to some degree, and they increase the equipment that is present in an already crowded procedure laboratory environment. robotic manipulation of ablation catheters can be accomplished using external magnetic fields to guide magnetic tipped catheters or robotic armatures that actuate sheath and catheter movement remotely. these systems allow electrophysiologists to perform most of the procedure behind fixed radiation barriers, thereby eliminating exposure to scattered radiation for the operator (but not the patient or in-laboratory staff) and eliminating the need to wear protective lead. 26, 104, 105 although there is a learning curve associated with these technologies, they appear to yield results equivalent to conventional manual catheter procedures. recent developments in electroanatomic mapping and ice have been used to perform catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation 22 with minimal use of x-ray imaging. future developments of these and other imaging technologies that do not use ionizing radiation may obviate the need for radiation protection garments in the ep laboratory of the future. the physical stresses associated with working in the ep/ interventional laboratory have been identified as a high prevalence of orthopedic problems, particularly those related to the spine, hips, knees, and ankles. 102, 106 the primary contributor to orthopedic problems is wearing personal radiation protection apparel. other factors may be those related to ergonomic design, increasing complexity and duration of interventional procedures, falls, and lengthy careers. a multi-specialty occupational health group has been formed to evaluate risks and hazards and advocate for efforts to reduce these hazards. 107 table 5 provides a list of measures to be considered in laboratory design and procedural processes to reduce the incidence of ergonomic stresses on the ep laboratory physicians and staff. preventing the transmission of infectious agents to ensure the safety of the operator and other staff in the ep laboratory as much as possible involves, first and foremost, adherence to standardized uniformly applied universal precautions in every aspect of patient care. risks of acquisition of infectious diseases by health care workers can be minimized by adherence to current infection control guidelines. 108 institutions have policies on required annual or biannual staff inoculations. these may include inoculations such as hepatitis b, influenza, pertussis, and rubeola (measles). such inoculations can provide immunity from certain highly transmissible diseases, enabling staff to care for these patients without inordinate risk. for example, health care workers not immune to chicken pox should not be required to care for patients with chicken pox. 109 because of the specialization of staff in the ep laboratory, it can be difficult to provide adequate staffing if multiple concessions have to be made for noncompliant staff. the interval for regular testing of staff for tuberculosis is defined by every institution. in special situations, staff may be fitted for n95 filter masks, which are particulate respirators that are used to prevent inhalation of small infectious airborne particles transmitted by patients with active tuberculosis. institutional policies should be followed closely in these situations. the major features of universal precautions and body substance isolation are incorporated in standard precautions and are used universally to prevent transmission of highly contagious or virulent infectious agents that may be spread by air and/or contact. the basic principle is that all blood, body fluids, secretions, excretions (except sweat), nonintact skin, and mucous membranes may contain transmissible infectious agents. since it is impossible to identify all sources of all infectious agents, the same precautions are applied to every patient at every encounter. each institution has a detailed description of how standard precautions are implemented. the following text highlights certain aspects particularly pertinent to ep laboratory processes. hand hygiene is the single most important factor in controlling and preventing the transmission of germs. additional protection is offered by the appropriate use of medical gloves; however, the unnecessary and inappropriate use of gloves results in a waste of resources and may increase the risk of germ transmission. 110 hands are washed each time after gloves are removed. hand-washing supplies should be readily accessible in the ep laboratory and environments. sterile gloves are indicated for any surgical procedure, invasive radiologic procedure, and procedures involving vascular access (central lines). examination gloves are indicated in clinical situations where there is potential for touching blood, body fluids, secretions, excretions, and items visibly soiled by body fluids. splash protection with masks and eye shields is recommended when working with arterial and venous catheterization. gloves are not indicated (except for contact precautions) for tasks involving direct patient exposure, including taking blood pressure, pulse, and temperature; administering intramuscular and subcutaneous injections; bathing and dressing the patient; transporting the patient; and any vascular line manipulation in the absence of blood leakage, or with indirect patient exposure, including using the phone, writing in the chart, removing and replacing linen for the patient's bed, and placing noninvasive ventilation equipment and oxygen cannula. 110 safe injection practices, including the use of needleless injection systems and proper disposal of any sharps and other equipment used for invasive procedures, are paramount. single-dose vials are preferable to multiple-dose vials, particularly if the vial will be used for multiple patients. transmission-based precautions are as described in each institution's infection control policies. contact precautions require the use of gowns and gloves when there is any contact with the patient or the surrounding area. droplet precautions are invoked when infectious respiratory droplets can travel directly from the patient's respiratory tract to the recipient, generally over short distances. this necessitates facial protection, such as surgical mask, eye protection, and/ or face shield. personal eyeglasses and contact lenses are not considered adequate eye protection. 110 historically, the area of defined risk has been a distance of 3 ft or more around the patient, although depending on the size of the droplets (smallpox and sars are examples of small droplets), the infective area may be up to 6 ft from the patient. droplets do not remain infectious over long periods of time and therefore do not require special air handling and ventilation. airborne infection isolation precautions prevent transmission of infectious agents that remain infectious over long distances when suspended in the air (e.g., rubeola virus [measles], varicella virus [chicken pox], mycobacterium tuberculosis, and possibly sars coronavirus). if at all possible, ep procedures should be deferred in these patients unless a negative airflow procedure room is available. if an ep procedure is unavoidable, a regular positive pressure procedure room with airflow similar to an or and a portable highefficiency particulate air filtration unit may be used. 110, 111 the patient should wear a surgical mask, and the staff should wear n95 filter masks. the procedure should be the last case of the day, and the room left empty until adequate air exchange has taken place to clear the room. protocols and regulations as established by the institution for the disposal or processing of infectious material, drapes, and fluids should be followed. care should be taken to avoid shaking drapes or linens, which can aerosolize contaminants. all sharps that are to be reprocessed should be placed in puncture-resistant containers, leak proof on all sides and bottom, and labeled with a biohazard label. blood, suction material, or other contaminated liquids can be converted to a solid by the addition of a gel-forming substance to avoid risk of fluid leaking out of containers. "clean" and "dirty" areas of the laboratory should be maintained during procedures. personnel touching a contaminated patient/wound/area should try to avoid touching surrounding objects before removing gloves and washing hands. after procedures, all touched surfaces need to be cleaned with a hospital-approved disinfectant, leaving the surfaces wet for the amount of time as directed on the bottle. this cleaning includes monitoring cables, intravenous pumps, transfer equipment, and all nondisposable objects within 3-6 ft of a patient on droplet precautions and within 6 ft if the patient has been coughing. catheter reprocessing is being adopted by many ep laboratories nationwide, which is aimed at reducing the cost of expensive single-use device and to lessen the environmental impact from discarded supplies. with the passage and enactment of the medical device user fee and modernization act of 2002, the reprocessing of single-use devices is now supported in federal law. physicians and the entire ep team must come to an agreement on whether reprocessing is going to positively impact their clinical operation and patient care from the financial, legal, and/or ethical point of view. ablation catheters are classified by the fda as class iii devices; therefore, they cannot be reprocessed at this time. there are a few third-party fda-approved reprocessors used by many ep and catheterization laboratories. in choosing a vendor for reprocessing, each team should consider not only the price of the reprocessed catheters but also the particular vendor's turnaround time, catheter collection logistics, and reprocessing success rate. when a patient must be transported to other units or departments, the referring area should communicate the patient's isolation needs to the receiving area before transporting the patient. all precautions should be followed throughout the transport process. gloves and other appropriate barriers should be worn by the patient and/or health care worker during all transfers. protective equipment is then to be removed, the hands washed, and the patient is to be transported to or from the laboratory. patients on droplet precautions must have their mouths and/or tracheostomy covered with a surgical mask. transporting a patient on airborne precautions should be discouraged, but if absolutely necessary, consult with the infection control officer as to specific transportation methods. obtaining an informed consent is necessary for all procedures. obtaining an informed consent is a process whereby communication between a patient and a physician results in the patient authorizing the medical procedure. this is an integral procedure that safeguards patient autonomy and provides the patient with information about the procedure that allows them to understand and agree to the procedure being recommended. this process is not only a legal requirement but also an ethical obligation. to ensure appropriate communication, sufficient time should be allocated to this process. a physician, apn, or pa that is part of the ep team should obtain the informed consent, and it should be made clear if trainees, pas, or apns will be operators. the process must take place before premedication with sedation so that the patient is able to understand the discussion and communicate a decision. the discussion should take place out of the procedure room and be in a language that the patient adequately understands, with a qualified interpreter when needed. common risks, even if not considered serious, should be discussed, as should serious risks that are potentially life-threatening, even if exceedingly rare. all aspects of the procedure that can be reasonably anticipated should be included in the discussion. informed consent in the majority of pediatric cases will be granted by the parent or guardian acting on the patient's behalf. adult patients with chd are similar to other adults except in cases of cognitive handicaps, as in some genetic syndromes. a minor should be invited to participate in the process, but the consent should be obtained from a legal guardian. consent/assent forms for young patients older than 12 years are frequently used. serum or urine pregnancy testing is generally applied for females older than 12 years within 2 weeks before the procedure. the physician should be aware that they can have a substantial influence on their patient's decision. as an expert, the patient looks to the physician for guidance. it is an ethical obligation for the physician to present a rational argument for undergoing the procedure. in contrast, any form of coercion with the use of verbal or nonverbal threat or manipulation through the incomplete or nontruthful presentation of information is always unethical. patients should be given ample opportunity to discuss their concerns about the procedure and to have their questions answered satisfactorily. if the patient is incapacitated, every effort should be made to seek out and obtain consent from an appropriate surrogate. teaching invasive procedural skills is a necessary part of maintaining the availability of widespread medical expertise to patients. the use of simulators can be a helpful adjunct to teaching invasive procedures but cannot replace the experience gained from actual patient procedures. 112 although teaching is the charge of institutions with postgraduate training programs and affiliations with medical schools, the teaching of invasive procedures can occur in any type of institution. it is the ethical duty of physicians to communicate to patients when and in what way trainees will be involved in their procedures. when asked before the procedure, the majority of patients consent to allowing trainees to practice their skills. 113 most teaching institutions have patients sign a form during the admission process that acknowledges their implicit consent to allow trainees to perform procedures under the supervision of senior physicians. although this may be sufficient communication to patients for minor procedures such as venipuncture or acquisition of a surface ecg, in more invasive procedures it is mandatory that a separate discussion takes places during the informed consent process that clearly states the participation and the role of the trainee. allowing a trainee to practice on a patient under general anesthesia without the patient's explicit consent does not respect the patient's autonomy and compromises the trainee's moral integrity. trainees should be invited to participate in the procedure only as an integral part of their training, not for mere curiosity. it is the responsibility of the supervising physician to allow the trainee to participate in the capacity that they are capable. the trainee should not be left performing the procedure unsupervised. without clinical research, promising potentially lifesaving technologies and therapies cannot be safely made available for patients. our understanding of disease processes progresses because of ongoing research. clinical research, however, exposes patients to some risk without proven direct benefit. as a researcher, the operator's primary responsibility is generating knowledge, whereas as a physician, the operator's primary responsibility is the well-being of the patient. when there is a conflict between these two roles, the role of the physician must override the role of the researcher. patients should be considered for a research protocol if they are looking for improved outcomes compared with those of current therapies. recruitment of patients should be carried out in a manner that does not coerce participation. similarly, the opportunity for participation in available investigation protocols should be presented to all patients fulfilling inclusion and exclusion criteria even if the attending physician does not believe that the patient is an ideal candidate. a necessary amount of time should be given to the informed consent process in sufficient advance of the procedure so that the patient is not unduly pressured into making a decision. when children or adult patients unable to provide an informed consent are being considered for a research protocol, it may be helpful to have an independent advocate ensure that parents or legally authorized representatives are making a rational decision exposing the subject to risk. it is not enough to obtain a patient's consent to participate in a study. it is the ethical duty of an investigator to ensure that the research protocol does not place the participants at unreasonable risk that is disproportionate to the expected benefits of the research study. the protocol must have scientific merit with an adequate likelihood of success as well as an expectation of social benefit. all research protocols performed in the ep laboratory must be reviewed and approved by an independent group, such as an institutional review board, to ensure that the study is ethically acceptable. results must be reported honestly, not only to honor the risk that research participants took but also to protect future recipients of the technology and therapies made available through research. industry can partner with physicians to promote medical knowledge and improve patient care through examples such as supporting cme programs, physician training, and clinical research. although physicians and industry may share a common goal of advancing medical care, the primary interest of the physician is the well-being of the patient whereas that of the industry is profitability. any interaction with industry, therefore, has the potential to influence a physician's decision regarding a company's product or service and a physician must stay vigilant to avoid being biased by these interactions. 1 any gift or amenity that is offered has the potential to exert influence. 114 institutions and physician groups may define policies regarding the acceptance of industry gifts, but anyone approached by industry must be able to judge whether accepting the gift carries the danger of biasing a medical decision and compromising patient care. it is unethical to accept any gift that is predicated on using a particular product or service. it is imperative that the conflict of interest disclosures to employers, editors, professional organizations, and audiences be accurate and up to date. the conflict of interest policies of each physician's institution and professional organization must be followed. physicians who are on product review and new product introduction committees for their hospital or professional organization and who have consulting or other relationships with industry must disclose those relationships and recuse themselves from product decisions in those cases. guidance for the heart rhythm society pertaining to interactions with industry endorsed by the heart rhythm society on outcomes of cardiac perforation complicating catheter ablation of ventricular arrhythmias extraction of implantable cardiac electronic devices irrigated radiofrequency catheter ablation guided by electroanatomic mapping for recurrent ventricular tachycardia after myocardial infarction: the multicenter thermocool ventricular tachycardia ablation trial impact of pulmonary hypertension on the outcomes of noncardiac surgery: predictors of perioperative morbidity and mortality ventricular tachycardia originating from the aortic sinus cusp in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy epicardial ventricular tachycardia ablation: a multicenter safety study transvenous lead extraction: heart rhythm society expert consensus on facilities, training, indications, and patient management guidelines for design and construction of health care facilities guidelines for environmental infection control in health-care facilities. center for disease control and the healthcare infection control practices advisory committee (hicpac) ma: national fire protection association medical imaging & technology alliance. the dicom standard: digital imaging and communications in medicine delayed-enhanced mr. scar imaging and intraprocedural registration into an electroanatomical mapping system in postinfarction patients isolated septal substrate for ventricular tachycardia in nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy: incidence, characterization, and implications strategies for clinical and biomedical engineers to maintain readiness of external defibrilators naspe policy statement on catheter ablation: personnel, policy, procedures, and therapeutic recommendations cryoablation for atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia in young patients: predictors of recurrence reconstruction of endocardial potentials and activation sequences from intracavitary probe measurements. localization of pacing sites and effects of myocardial structure intracardiac echocardiography in complex cardiac catheter ablation procedures left atrial thrombus associated with ablation for atrial fibrillation: identification with intracardiac echocardiography catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation without fluoroscopy using intracardiac echocardiography and electroanatomic mapping predictors of successful catheter ablation of ventricular arrhythmias arising from the papillary muscles on the use of cartosound for left atrial navigation heart rhythm society policy statement update: recommendations on the role of industry employed allied professionals (ieaps) worldwide experience with the robotic navigation system in catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: methodology, efficacy and safety a novel remote catheter system, demonstrates safety and efficacy magnetic guidance system for cardiac electrophysiology: a prospective trial of safety and efficacy in humans remote magnetic navigation to map and ablate left coronary cusp ventricular tachycardia american board of internal medicine: accreditation coucil for graduate medical education. program requirements for graduate medical education in clinical cardiac electrophysiology american board of internal medicine. policies and procedures for certification task force 1: training in clinical cardiology task force 6: training in specialized electrophysiology, cardiac pacing, and arrhythmia management endorsed by the heart rhythm society american college of cardiology/american heart association 2006 update of the clinical competence statement on invasive electrophysiology studies, catheter ablation, and cardioversion: a report of the american college of cardiology/american heart association/american college of physicians task force on clinical competence and training developed in collaboration with the heart rhythm society american college of cardiology foundation/society for cardiovascular angiography and interventions expert consensus document on cardiac catheterization laboratory standards update a report of the american college of cardiology foundation task force on expert consensus documents american society of anesthesiologists task force on sedation and analgesia by non-anesthesiologist. practice guidelines for sedation and analgesia by nonanesthesiologists recommendations for advanced fellowship training in clinical pediatric and congenital electrophysiology: a report from the training and credentialing committee of the pediatric and congenital electrophysiology society hrs/ehra/ecas expert consensus statement on catheter and surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation: recommendations for patient selection, procedural techniques, patient management and follow-up, definitions, endpoints, and research trial design ehra/hrs expert consensus on catheter ablation of ventricular arrhythmias: developed in a partnership with the european heart rhythm association (ehra), a registered branch of the european society of cardiology (esc), and the heart rhythm society (hrs); in collaboration with the american college of cardiology (acc) and the american heart association (aha) frequently asked questions: clinical cardiac electrophysiology: review committee for internal medicine accf/aha/aap recommendations for training in pediatric cardiology. task force 4: recommendations for training guidelines in pediatric cardiac electrophysiology endorsed by the heart rhythm society heart rhythm society/pediatric and congenital electrophysiology society clinical competency statement: training pathways for implantation of cardioverter-defibrillators and cardiac resynchronization therapy devices in pediatric and congenital heart patients recommendations for advanced fellowship training in clinical pediatric and congenital electrophysiology: a report from the training and credentialing committee of the pediatric and congenital electrophysiology society guidelines for the management of adults with congenital heart disease: a report of the american college of cardiology/american heart association task force on practice guidelines (writing committee to develop guidelines on the management of adults with congenital heart disease) national council of state boards of nursing. model for aprn regulation: licensure, accreditation, certification and education commission on accreditation of allied health education programs. profession description & certficaition information physician assistants in the united states defining the physician assistant role in ontario: ontario physician assistant scope of practice statement and ontario physician assistant competency profile. healthforce ontario the joint commission. national patient safety goals: hospital accreditation program standards for basic anesthetic monitoring a retrospective analysis of proceduralist-directed, nurse-administered propofol sedation for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator procedures statement on granting privileges for administration of moderate sedation to practitioners who are not anesthesia professionals naspe expert consensus conference: radiofrequency catheter ablation in children with and without congenital heart disease. report of the writing committee. north american society of pacing and electrophysiology general anesthesia reduces the prevalence of pulmonary vein reconnection during repeat ablation when compared with conscious sedation: results from a randomized study anesthetic management of patients undergoing pulmonary vein isolation for treatment of atrial fibrillation using high-frequency jet ventilation complications during catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: identification and prevention assessment of catheter tip contact force resulting in cardiac perforation in swine atria using force sensing technology ablation of atrial fibrillation using an irrigated-tip catheter: open or closed? efficacy and safety of cryoballoon ablation for atrial fibrillation: a systematic review of published studies signals and signal processing for the electrophysiologist: part i: electrogram acquisition signals and signal processing for the electrophysiologist: part ii: signal processing and artifact hospital infection control practices advisory committee american college of cardiology/ society for cardiac angiography and interventions clinical expert consensus document on cardiac catheterization laboratory standards. a report of the american college of cardiology task force on clinical expert consensus documents consensus guidelines for periprocedural management of coagulation status and hemostasis risk in percutaneous imageguided interventions evaluation of a new standardized protocol for the perioperative management of chronically anticoagulated patients receiving implantable cardiac arrhythmia devices implantable cardioverter-defibrillator registry risk score models for acute procedural complications or death after implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation left atrial catheter ablation and ischemic stroke risk factors for particulate and microbial contamination of air in operating theatres update on cardiovascular implantable electronic device infections and their management: a scientific statement from the american heart association prophylactic use of vancomycin in adult cardiology and cardiac surgery sudden cardiac death and malignant arrhythmias: the scope of the problem in adult congenital heart patients late enlargement of radiofrequency lesions in infant lambs. implications for ablation procedures in small children radiofrequency catheter ablation: indications and complications paces/hrs expert consensus statement on the management of the asymptomatic young patient with a wolff-parkinson-white (wpw, ventricular preexcitation) electrocardiographic pattern: developed in partnership between the pediatric and congenital electrophysiology society (paces) and the heart rhythm society (hrs) guidelines for device-based therapy of cardiac rhythm abnormalities: a report of the american college of cardiology/american heart association task force on practice guidelines (writing committee to revise the acc/aha/ naspe 2002 guideline update for implantation of cardiac pacemakers and antiarrhythmia devices): developed in collaboration with the american association for thoracic surgery and society of thoracic surgeons cardiac resynchronization therapy in pediatric and congenital heart disease cardiac resynchronization therapy (and multisite pacing) in pediatrics and congenital heart disease: five years experience in a single institution pediatric radiofrequency catheter ablation registry success, fluoroscopy time, and complication rate for supraventricular tachycardia: comparison of early and recent eras radiofrequency catheter ablation in infants o 18 months old: when is it done and how do they fare? short-term data from the pediatric ablation registry techniques to avoid atrioventricular block during radiofrequency catheter ablation of septal tachycardia substrates in young patients cryoablation for atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia in young patients: predictors of recurrence acc/aha/hrs 2006 key data elements and definitions for electrophysiological studies and procedures: a report of the american college of cardiology/american heart association task force on clinical data standards (acc/aha/hrs writing committee to develop data standards on electrophysiology) use of cryoablation for treatment of tachyarrhythmias in 2010: survey of current practices of pediatric electrophysiologists prospective assessment after pediatric cardiac ablation: fate of intracardiac structure and function, as assessed by serial echocardiography accf/aha/hrs/scai clinical competence statement on physician knowledge to optimize patient safety and image quality in fluoroscopically guided invasive cardiovascular procedures. a report of the american college of cardiology foundation/american heart association/american college of physicians task force on clinical competence and training icrp publication 113. education and training in radiological protection for diagnostic and interventional procedures skin injury following prolonged 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radiation exposure during fluoroscopy-guided electrophysiology procedures cfr-code of federal regualtions title 21 prevalence and risk factors for cervical and lumbar spondylosis in interventional electrophysiologists cardiac catheterization: impact of face and neck shielding on new estimates of effective dose interventional cardiologists and risk of radiation-induced cataract: results of a french multicenter observational study prevalence of spinal disc disease among interventional cardiologists evaluation of a radiation protection cabin for invasive electrophysiological procedures ablation of atrial fibrillation utilizing robotic catheter navigation in comparison to manual navigation and ablation: single-center experience robotic magnetic navigation for atrial fibrillation ablation occupational hazards of interventional cardiologists: prevalence of orthopedic health problems in contemporary practice occupational health hazards in the interventional laboratory: time for a safer environment lessons learned: protection of healthcare workers from infectious disease risks guideline for isolation precautions: preventing transmission of infectious agents in health care settings glove use information leaflet new ventilation guidelines for health-care facilities intravenous catheter training system: computerbased education versus traditional learning methods requesting consent for an invasive procedure in newly deceased adults physicians' behavior and their interactions with drug companies. a controlled study of physicians who requested additions to a hospital drug formulary see tables a1 and a2 . key: cord-324507-w32pe2pz authors: dubé, mirette; kaba, alyshah; cronin, theresa; barnes, sue; fuselli, tara; grant, vincent title: covid-19 pandemic preparation: using simulation for systems-based learning to prepare the largest healthcare workforce and system in canada date: 2020-08-18 journal: adv simul (lond) doi: 10.1186/s41077-020-00138-w sha: doc_id: 324507 cord_uid: w32pe2pz healthcare resources have been strained to previously unforeseeable limits as a result of the covid-19 pandemic of 2020. this has prompted the emergence of critical just-in-time covid-19 education, including rapid simulation preparedness, evaluation and training across all healthcare sectors. simulation has been proven to be pivotal for both healthcare provider learning and systems integration in the context of testing and integrating new processes, workflows, and rapid changes to practice (e.g., new cognitive aids, checklists, protocols) and changes to the delivery of clinical care. the individual, team, and systems learnings generated from proactive simulation training is occurring at unprecedented volume and speed in our healthcare system. establishing a clear process to collect and report simulation outcomes has never been more important for staff and patient safety to reduce preventable harm. our provincial simulation program in the province of alberta, canada (population = 4.37 million; geographic area = 661,848 km(2)), has rapidly responded to this need by leading the intake, design, development, planning, and co-facilitation of over 400 acute care simulations across our province in both urban and rural emergency departments, intensive care units, operating rooms, labor and delivery units, urgent care centers, diagnostic imaging and in-patient units over a 5-week period to an estimated 30,000 learners of real frontline team members. unfortunately, the speed at which the covid-19 pandemic has emerged in canada may prevent healthcare sectors in both urban and rural settings to have an opportunity for healthcare teams to participate in just-in-time in situ simulation-based learning prior to a potential surge of covid-19 patients. our coordinated approach and infrastructure have enabled organizational learnings and the ability to theme and categorize a mass volume of simulation outcome data, primarily from acute care settings to help all sectors further anticipate and plan. the goal of this paper is to share the unique features and advantages of using a centralized provincial simulation response team, preparedness using learning and systems integration methods, and to share the highest risk and highest frequency outcomes from analyzing a mass volume of covid-19 simulation data across the largest health authority in canada. with the emergence of the covid-19 pandemic of 2020, healthcare resources have been strained to unforeseeable capacities, promoting the need for rapid, effective, and efficient preparedness. this has prompted the emergence of just-in-time preparedness strategies, including simulation for systems evaluation and healthcare provider (hcp) learning to support planning across healthcare sectors [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] . simulation has been pivotal for systems testing and integrating new and improved components such as novel workflows, protocols, and cognitive aids with rapid changes to practice and care delivery. finding clear approaches to rapidly collect and report what is working well and what needs to change is urgently required for hcp and patient safety to ultimately reduce preventable harm. the provincial simulation program, named esim (educate, simulate, innovate, motivate) in the province of alberta, canada (population = 4.37 million; geographic area = 661,848 km 2 , [10] ), has rapidly responded to preparedness training by establishing a central esim provincial covid response team (similar to an emergency command center operations team for simulation) to facilitate a large-scale project managing the initiation, planning, execution, and performance/monitoring of a provincial covid-19 simulation response [11] . over just 5 weeks, this response team enabled a harmonized intake process, design, and development of a robust covid-19 simulation curriculum, mobilized a data collection/outcome reporting team, and a response plan to facilitate over 400 acute care simulation session requests across alberta's broad geographical zones. this coordinated approach and infrastructure enabled an integrated provincial multi-site simulation response, allowing the ability to rapidly theme and categorize a mass number of simulation findings (over 2,500 systems issues) from over 30,000 learners (hcp) on the frontline. the simulation "command center" served to disseminate the outcomes across a large single health authority to further support ongoing planning, develop and refine the curriculum, and remain a specialized contact team of simulation experts for all health sectors (primarily acute care; urban and rural). the goal of this paper is to share the unique features and advantages of using a centralized provincial simulation response team, preparedness using learning and systems integration methods, and to share the highest risk and highest frequency outcomes from analyzing a mass volume of covid-19 simulation data across the largest health authority in canada. alberta health services: largest integrated healthcare system in canada alberta health services (ahs) has a centralized approach to its leadership and core operational functions (e.g., human resources and information technology) and provides medical care at over 650 facilities across the province, including 106 acute care hospitals and 25,653 continuing care beds/spaces, five stand-alone psychiatric facilities, 2723 addiction and mental health beds and 243 community palliative and hospice beds. ahs has over 125,000 employees and over 10,000 physicians and service accountability zones are divided into five geographical areas: north, edmonton, central, calgary, and south [10] . there are few organizations in the world, which are comparable to ahs' integrated healthcare system relative to its size and capacity [12] , making it a unique opportunity to glean insights and lessons learned from covid-19 pandemic preparedness. while disaster planning has become core content within some training curricula, the majority of health professionals remain ill prepared to deal with large scale disasters and will not encounter these critical scenarios in practice [13, 14] . simulation is one method that has been identified to improve readiness and preparedness in times of disaster through deliberate practice and exposure to rare situations [15] [16] [17] [18] . simulation-based learning has historically focused on individual and team training of practicing hcps [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] , although it has evolved to include just-in-time in situ training within the actual clinical environment [26] [27] [28] including simulation for systems integration (sis), targeting the testing and integration of systems and processes (e.g., workflows, care pathways) that are uniquely important to disaster preparedness [29] [30] [31] [32] . the esim covid-19 response team has been involved in pioneering work in sis [11, 32, 33] systems integration, an engineering term defined as bringing many subsystems together into one better functioning system, has the potential to improve the safety and quality of care through re-engineering of the processes and systems in which hcp work [34] . the system engineering initiative for patient safety (seips) 2.0 model provides a framework outlining how the work system components (e.g., tools/technology, tasks, environment, people/teams) provide a matrix for thematically categorizing systemfocused debriefing (sfd) outcomes in a complex adaptive healthcare system [35] . sis/sfd allows testing of new processes within healthcare systems to inform design and utility, and to identify system issues proactively to prevent harm [15, [19] [20] [21] . the rapid onset of the covid-19 crisis is having a profound impact on global health, increasing demand, and risks on healthcare systems due to rapidly changing and unpredictable circumstances. the use of in situ simulation as a proactive risk mitigation strategy to prepare healthcare organizations for pandemic planning is well supported in the literature [8, 9, [26] [27] [28] . pandemics place high demands on clinical care and potential risk of contamination for hcp, which increases the fear of spread to others [1, 36, 37] . deliberate practice through simulation can reduce the cognitive load of hcp involved in direct frontline patient care, potentially mitigating latent safety threats (lsts) (e.g., errors in design, organization, and/or training that may have a significant impact on patient safety) in times of extended pressure, exhaustion, and burnout [38] . as recently illustrated in both italy [2] and singapore [3] , simulation is key to preparedness by optimizing work flow structures, developing new processes, managing staffing levels, procuring equipment, bed management, and enforcing consistency of medical management of patients. in those ways, simulation can be used as both a learning and evaluation tool (e.g., sis/sfd) [32] . diekmann et al. also described the potential of using simulation to improve hospital responses to the covid-19 crisis [6] . recently published covid-19 simulation papers [8, 9] share lessons learned in an attempt to support organizations that may seek to use simulation for diagnosing, testing, and embedding these approaches within pandemic constraints. while these papers do not provide specific outcomes from their system simulations, they share practical tips, tools, scenarios, debriefing questions, and resources which can be used to analyze the current needs and responses to potentially mitigate the negative impacts of the covid-19 crisis. similarly, chan and nickson [7] , published an example of practical considerations for organizations in the development for just-in-time simulation training, including the scenario development, prebriefing, and debriefing, using system and process simulation for the testing of airway management for suspected/confirmed cases of covid-19. while many of the findings in the emergent literature above glean insights into the use of simulation as both a learning and evaluation tool to prepare for covid-19, a key gap identified is that many of these outcomes are unique to the experience of one specific site or one unique institution, which limit the generalizability and scalability of the findings. this is especially important when using simulation for pandemic preparedness to rapidly test systems and processes and prepare frontline teams to care for potential covid-19 patients. therefore, an identified need in the literature is the ability to proactively identify systems issues, while testing new pandemic processes in real time, and sharing these organizational learnings and system-level outcomes on a mass scale to both anticipate and plan for covid-19. this is an invaluable opportunity to support healthcare organizations' preparedness during a global pandemic. our provincial simulation program rapidly mobilized to respond to our organization's need by establishing a central simulation covid response team and a large-scale evaluation project to manage the initiation, planning, execution, and performance/monitoring for all simulation-based requests. the following sections will summarize our project evaluation approach based on common project phases [39] : (a) project initiation and planning; (b) project execution; (c) project performance and monitoring; (d) organizational learning; and (e) reporting of outcomes. rapidly designating the esim covid-19 response team allowed a centralized contact and triage system across the province for all simulation-based requests coming from hundreds of centers, allowing coordination, planning, and resource oversight for simulation training. team members included a team lead, geographically dispersed esim consultants (clinicians whose workplace role is to lead the design, delivery, faculty development, and evaluation of simulation methodologies and projects at ahs) and a designated data and outcomes team solely responsible for theming and categorizing thousands of simulation data points from covid-19 simulations. the simulation infrastructure in place in ahs prior to covid-19 (e.g., esim consultants positioned in every zone (rural, urban, and mobile program) and > 1300 esim-trained simulation educators across ahs) ensured every geographical zone was supported. the intake process was maintained through a central spreadsheet accessible to the entire provincial team and a needs assessment facilitated by an esim consultant (additional file 1 intake form) to ensure the needs and objectives aligned with established simulation-based methodologies and capacity. requests were prioritized as they were processed and whenever possible, prior relationships with simulation-trained educators comfortable with the use of simulation-based methods were leveraged to help facilitate the large number of sessions. esim consultants either fully led the sessions, initiated sessions while mentoring others to replicate delivery on an on-going basis (especially when large numbers of hcp were involved), and/or shared resources with faculty who had the capacity and experience to lead sessions independently. the first wave of intake requests (and patients) in alberta, organically flooded from emergency departments, followed by intensive care units, operating rooms, labor and delivery units, and neonatal icus in calgary. simulations were triaged for covid-19 training and preparedness for the highest risk locations and activities across acute care. a second wave of requests included diagnostic imaging and inpatient medical units (including newly created inpatient units for covid-19, among others). a similar pattern of requests followed from all of the five geographic zones in alberta in concordance with the number of covid-19 cases starting to move through the system. daily response team meetings ensured strategic planning with esim consultants to then specifically target and reach out to acute care sites with no simulation trained champion, those who had not made any requests, and to ensure simulation support and curriculum resources were shared across all zones. a novel part of our approach was the creation of a robust, centrally located simulation curriculum, which was rapidly developed and mobilized over a 10-day period at the onset of the covid-19 simulation response. curriculum content was vetted through medical experts, clinical leaders, infection prevention and control consultants, and the organization's emergency command center to ensure accuracy, alignment, and validity before application. new emerging curriculum resources for covid-19 were reviewed daily to ensure the most relevant up-to-date information was reflected within current best practice recommendations. the curriculum included covid-19 simulation scenarios for all sectors, and included a prebriefing script, debriefing tools [32] , cognitive aids, "how-to" guides and shared webinars. curricular materials were shared over the 5-week period with over 600 teams across ahs. objectives for the covid-19 simulation scenarios were based on the highest risk and highest impact system issues identified and prioritized by integrated interprofessional teams of clinicians, managers, and educators-based on their units/departments greatest needs. table 1 provides samples of frequently used scenario objectives across all simulations and their related work system categories [35] . central to our unique approach was the planning and execution of three common simulation-based methods to prepare teams and the healthcare system during covid-19 preparedness (table 2 ). these methods include (1) surge planning and table top debriefing; (2) process walkthrough and environmental scans; and (3) rapid cycle simulation and debriefing. both learnerfocused and system-focused debriefing approaches were used across these three methods [22, 32] . in some instances, esim consultants and human factors (hf) specialists led the co-facilitation and debriefing of table top surge planning exercises. these exercises allowed for proactive pandemic surge planning assessment of facility, departments, programs, and services related to covid-19 patient flow. esim and hf were then utilized for designing decision algorithms, observation of new work processes and work environments, and identifying further improvement opportunities. early preparatory work focused on using a systems approach to co-design new covid-19 processes and spaces. these physical walkthrough simulations were based on day-to-day movement, case-specific patient presentations, and workflows that would be impacted by covid-19. they were also used to train multiple hcps to orientate them to the new covid-19 response for their areas (see additional file 2 for key points to consider in a process walkthrough environmental scan planning exercise). the primary focus was on identifying lsts prior to the first patient experience which allowed for application of a new processes in a plan, do, study, act (pdsa) cycle [40] . the team moved through a department/clinical area, doing an environmental scan for barriers, identification of missing equipment, testing of communication pathways, and identification of new tasks/roles/responsibilities. any changes to the space and processes were actioned to leadership. once final covid-19 processes and workflows were established, departments/clinical areas progressed to rapid cycle simulation training followed by debriefing [41] . this involved rapid training sessions (average 20min scenario duration followed by 20-min debriefings) to ensure small groups of interprofessional team members were able to apply new processes in the live clinical environment prior to use with actual patients. all questions related to medical management, infection, prevention and control (ipac) and process were also debriefed during these sessions. a data outcomes team was designated to rapidly process and analyze data collected from all provincial covid-19 simulations. figure 1 outlines a systematic iterative process developed for intake and entry of data. an initial coding scheme for categorization of data was created. data analysis included the theming of system-focused debriefing outcomes [32] based on the seips 2.0 system categories (e.g., tools/technology, tasks, environment, people/teams) [35] . all outcome data were analyzed to determine convergence of themes and repeated expression of reoccurring constructs. discrepancies in the codes and labeling of themes were discussed by the core project team regularly and resolved; with themes simplified and altered accordingly until complete agreement was reached. saturation of emergent themes was reached across > 400 simulation sessions provincially. the number of learners/participants and simulation sessions was collected using a standardized intake spreadsheet and was collated biweekly. when using a simulation for systems integration approach, the collection and sharing of systems issues and learnings is key to informing a parent organization. the esim program's infrastructure and approach was critical in a pandemic situation, as the information and learnings from the sis were used to iteratively make improvements and help teams across the organization anticipate and plan for issue mitigation and process improvement. the timely analysis of large volumes of data that was being collated and themed in real time by the esim response team proactively informed and enabled scaling up of quality improvement activities across sites, departments, and zones. our organizational learning included broad sharing of weekly dashboard updates of key outcomes, webinars (local and international webinars shared across the entire ahs organization and beyond resulting in over 4000 unique views; recording shared with > 100, 000 email addresses) [4, 42] , and key covid-19 resources developed for simulation. highest impact and highest frequency outcomes the provincial esim covid-19 simulation response team facilitated simulation session requests by leading the intake, design, development, planning, and facilitation of over 400 acute care simulation sessions across all sectors of our provincial health program. in under a 5-week period, an estimated 30,000 learners participated in simulation in both rural (17%) and urban (83%) centers across the province (fig. 2) . there was a wide variance in the number of sessions/ learners per request ranging from 1-3 days of simulation training and 10-400 people requiring training per request. well over 2500 systems issues, including lsts, have been proactively identified and mitigated through > 400 simulation sessions. systems issues across all sessions were categorized into processes (61%), tools and technology (14%), persons and tasks (14%), environment (7%), and organization (4%). table 3 highlights the highest priority themes discussed in the debriefings (impact) and the highest reported outcomes (frequency) that emerged from all covid-19 simulations. in analyzing the nine themes, it is clear that the rapid knowledge translation of best practices, new guidelines, and processes following system simulation events can potentially serve other organizations that may seek to learn from our centralized, coordinated approach to using system integration simulation for pandemic planning and preparedness. in synthesizing the learnings from the highest impact and highest frequency outcomes of the 9 themes reported in table 3 , there are several reasons on why these salient themes came together based on our unique context and organizational level approach to sis. each of these themes informed our organization as to what was working well at one site, department, and zone and what needed to be improved and scaled up across the organization. for example, although we had an ipac team, and multiple related resources and cognitive aids designed to support ipac processes; it became clear, as identified by the frontline through simulation, that more needed to be done to address the nuances and unique clinical practices of ipac specific to the pandemic. while hundreds of learners continued to struggle with safe doffing, simulation was able to inform the development of emerging best practices surrounding 1:1 doffing, what questions were repeatedly being discussed; why breaches were happening; and ensuring one person guided and supported individuals during doffing. observing the trending of process-related systems issues enabled our team to share this finding broadly and focus our simulation tools and approaches to further address systems issues that impacted not just one unit, site or department enabling the learnings identified through simulation to be scaffolded and shared across the entire province. this led to further development of a systemsbased process walk through approach, with debriefing, to ensure a systematic identification of process issues. repeated sis debriefings where frontline team members asked about personal items such as watches, earrings, and identification badges in covid rooms allowed us to share rapidly evolving strategies to address proper maintenance of isolation environments and the prevention of contamination. for teams who were struggling with effective ways to communicate outside of covid rooms, we were able to rapidly share innovations on a large scale to any other teams who were in the same position in preparing their unit and staff to respond to the evolving nature of the global pandemic. this involved designing, through simulation, innovative approaches necessary to keep staff and patients safe by communicating using dry erase markers on glass between rooms, as one example. as protected covid-19 intubations were identified as a high anxiety and high-risk time for healthcare workers, as shown by repeated simulation requests from healthcare staff targeting these objectives, having the ability to test these processes in simulation and refine a critical care medicine cognitive aid for pre-intubation and then share these findings on such a large scale was essential to successful preparation and safety of staff. as a result of multiple simulations on intubation, a covid-19 cognitive aid was developed, which was then contextualized for rural sites and then broadly shared across the province using our coordinated system. our use of simulation for systems integration involved taking a project approach to the initiation, planning, execution, and reporting [39] (e.g., shared learnings) to enable proactive improvement work for safer, more efficient, and reliable care processes for patients and healthcare teams [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] . this paper adds to the emerging literature on using simulation for pandemic planning and preparedness [8, 9] as it describes a highly coordinated covid-19 pandemic simulation response using a centralized team, robust valid curriculum, and data outcomes team to analyze and rapidly share an unprecedented volume of simulation data for a large-scale sis project across the largest single health authority in canada. unfortunately, the speed at which the covid-19 pandemic has emerged in canada may prevent every acute care center in both urban and rural settings in having healthcare teams participate in "just-in-time" in situ simulation-based learning and systems/process. the ability to test new pandemic processes, and share organizational learnings to be disseminated on a mass scale has been pivotal in preparing our healthcare system to respond to the emergent threat of covid-19. the importance of using simulation as a "first choice" strategy for ensuring individual, team, and system readiness in times of crisis is supported by multiple publications in the literature [5, [51] [52] [53] , and highlights that a sustained investment in simulation programs will have immeasurable impacts across healthcare systems following the pandemic. many of these papers [3, [6] [7] [8] [9] ] indicate a single site or unit approach to pandemic preparation, although do not specifically highlight using a coordinated and centralized simulation team, development of robust valid curriculum, and real time data analysis of emerging themes from hundreds of simulations. although "more" may not necessarily always be better, we advocate that during times of pandemic where time sensitivity and reliable information are of utmost importance, a coordinated organizational-wide simulation table 3 highest impact and highest frequency outcomes response approach allows for broader and faster sharing, scalability, and generalizability of the findings. the validation of these 9 themes from simulations across multiple sites and teams outweighs the findings at only one. one of the emerging findings that differed our project from other covid-19 system simulations experiences both nationally and globally in using simulation as both a learning and evaluation tool to prepare [3, [6] [7] [8] [9] , was recognizing the critical importance of embedding simulation as a central part of the organizational learning, and the overall pandemic preparedness strategy. similar to an operational "emergency command center," simulation programs (regardless of the size) need to situate themselves to be members "at the table" with key programs informing decision-making, and influencing organizational planning and pandemic use of trigger scripts on pagers to signal a priority response. scripts like "covid airway" or "covid transport" to alert a team and get the right people and the right equipment to the right place. preparedness from the beginning. many factors influence the ability of simulation programs to "take this seat" including how the program is established prior to pandemic and how well it may be recognized by hospital administration staff in informing the organization of the needs and challenges coming directly from the frontline care providers. we situated ourselves as key informants to leaders and the organization's administration, through planning and executing a large-scale simulation for systems integration project. our outcomes, which identified over 2500 systems issues, including lsts, had meaning to the organization because they were widespread and converged data from several sites including both urban and rural centers and across the continuum of care. in addition, we could equally share and reach all sites within our organizational structure for the new emerging themes we were uncovering in real time. we informed our organization on multiple levels through our webinars, dashboards, and relationships built across a large health authority. queueing ipac team members of ongoing concerns with best practices for safe doffing to enable targeted approaches; sharing weekly questions still arising from the frontline to the ipac team; and then supporting the development of a "doffing buddy" program are a few examples. this example highlights that while the emerging literature on covid-19 simulations [3, [6] [7] [8] [9] differ in their approach and scale of sis, there is overlapping outcomes and triangulation of findings specific to ipac across the different systems, countries, and jurisdictions. essentially, this underlines the validity and robustness of the use of simulation for systems integration methodology for organizational learning. we realized that process-related systems issues were widespread and the requests for environmental scans with debriefing prompted hundreds of teams to start redesigning their covid care spaces after one of our "shared learnings" webinars. seeing the rapid uptake of teams developing checklists and cognitive aids in isolation of each other, and with limited human factors experience, led us to establish collaborative human factors tools on how to develop an effective cognitive aid and principles of safe use. we believe all of these developments were the result of a swift and purposeful largescale centralized approach. recognizing that not all health authorities have opportunity to coordinate or operationally support a centralized team and curriculum across sites; we recommend the explicit effort of simulation programs to align with other programs in meaningful ways to analyze and share emerging data in real-time to support validation for broader sharing and scalability when possible. the simulation methods and outcomes used in the covid-19 response have had a profound impact on our teams, processes, and system functioning. our experience offers other organizations' learnings to glean and consider the importance of establishing a centralized simulation response team for scale, spread and speed of knowledge translation, implementation, and change management effectiveness. with on-going use of sis sessions informing cycles of improvement, the simulation will continue to be a key organizational tool we will use to further manage this evolving crisis, as well as future needs of our healthcare organization. our pandemic preparedness highlighted the essential use of simulation as both an evaluation tool capable of testing systems and processes, and identifying and mitigating lsts, as well as an education tool capable of rapidly preparing frontline teams in terms of the changes identified above. this project has identified how the dissemination and broadcasting of curriculum and lessons learned (e.g., emerging themes, innovations, systems-based approaches) from simulation can rapidly help a large organization over a large geographic area be adequately prepared for an evolving situation like the covid-19 pandemic of 2020. supporting the health care workforce during the covid-19 global epidemic critical care utilization for the covid-19 outbreak in lombardy, italy: early experience and forecast during an emergency response preparing for a covid-19 pandemic: a review of operating room outbreak response measures in a large tertiary hospital in singapore covid 19 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comprehensive healthcare simulation simulation to assess the safety of new healthcare teams and new facilities use of simulation to test systems and prepare staff for a new hospital transition using in situ simulation to evaluate operational readiness of a children's hospital-based obstetrics unit the use of in situ simulation to detect latent safety threats in paediatrics: a cross-sectional survey work system design for patient safety: the seips model using in situ simulation to identify and resolve latent environmental threats to patient safety: case study involving a labor and delivery ward using briefing, simulation and debriefing to improve human and system performance rapid cycle deliberate practice in medical education -a systematic review considerations for psychological safety with system-focused debriefings springer nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations the authors would like to recognize the many partnerships and people that enabled an impressive simulation response to the covid-19 pandemic. this project, considering its scope and scale, would not have been possible without the efforts of many team members from the alberta health services' esim provincial simulation program, kidsim pediatric simulation program, and covenant health authority. the authors would like to acknowledge the following people for their contributions to the project curriculum design, delivery, data entry, manuscript review, and input throughout the covid supplementary information accompanies this paper at https://doi.org/10. 1186/s41077-020-00138-w. authors' information md is a masters certified critical care registered respiratory therapist with 24 years of experience in healthcare. she has over thirteen years' experience in simulation and debriefing; training hundreds of interprofessional teams, faculty development, simulation for systems integration and debriefing, undergraduate education, global health, human factors, design thinking, research, project and change management, former provincial director of quality and patient safety education, and leading provincial simulation and quality improvement projects. she is passionate about patient safety, improving healthcare systems, and has multiple peer-reviewed publications on interprofessional collaboration, team training, and using simulation and debriefing for systems improvement. during the covid-19 pandemic of 2020, md was the esim provincial simulation response team lead for the province of alberta, canada. no funding was required for the development of this manuscript. data sharing is not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analyzed.ethics approval and consent to participate no ethics approval or consent was needed for this manuscript. the authors declare that they have no competing interests.author details 1 esim provincial simulation program, alberta health services, alberta health services, 1403 29th street nw, calgary, alberta t2n 2 t9, canada. key: cord-337325-h9l7yy5z authors: bruzzone, francesco; scorrano, mariangela; nocera, silvio title: the combination of e-bike-sharing and demand-responsive transport systems in rural areas: a case study of velenje date: 2020-09-29 journal: nan doi: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2020.100570 sha: doc_id: 337325 cord_uid: h9l7yy5z an analysis of the operational characteristics of the transit system serving the town of velenje (slovenia) revealed poor performance and the need for improvements. this paper describes the potential integration of an electric bike-sharing system and a semi-flexible demand-responsive transport system to effectively solve this issue. additionally, general guidance is provided for transit systems with low travel demand. appropriate transport system schedules are proposed to facilitate customers' use and thus to move demand shares away from private motorized transport. focus group interviews, implemented to directly involve local stakeholders, revealed an overall positive perception of the proposed transport system. furthermore, the cost analysis demonstrated that the costs of the new system would not be much higher for the municipality than those currently incurred, making it an important performance improvement achieved at low cost. the considerable growth of mobility in urban centers over the last century has been accompanied by issues of sustainability. estimates show that while the world population has grown fourfold over the past century, passenger-kilometers in passenger transport and tons-kilometers in freight transport have increased by about 100 times during the same period (ksenofontov & milyakin, 2018; mulrow & derrible, 2020) . although this massive travel development has had numerous positive effects, the intensity and extent of the negative local and global consequences on the environment are clearly evident, especially in terms of air and noise pollution, soil consumption, and land degradation (benintendi, merino gòmez, de mare, nesticò, & balsamo, 2020) . the current global strategy has thus become reducing the overall consequences while still keeping performance efficiency high. public transport is a key piece of the sustainable mobility puzzle. it can help move more people with lower energy consumption per passenger, provides a more affordable alternative for getting around, has a track record of fewer accidents, has significant potential for electrification, reduces congestion, improves air quality, and makes cities more livable and inclusive. outside of these benefits, however, public transport service is plagued with many challenges that reduce its attractiveness, including long waits at transfer points, insufficient coverage of more dispersed areas, insufficient integration with green modes such as cycling, and a sometimes negative perception or attitude towards public transport. this is especially true in suburban areas. these are larger than traditional cities and have significantly lower densities, implying greater travel distances for most trips, fewer origins and destinations within walking distance of any single route, and more kilometers travelled to reach activities. conventional public transport in such areas is often unable to meet accessibility needs and requirements of different user groups, resulting in large portions of the population relying on private motorized transport, high operational costs, and thus increased fares and low revenues. this leads to a vicious circle ( fig. 1 ) of service cuts, further ridership fall, even lower revenues, and so on, to the point where services are discontinued (dirks, frank, & walther, 2019 ; organization for economic co-operation and development [oecd] & international transport forum [itf], 2015; velaga, nelson, wright, & farrington, 2012) . to tackle these challenges, transit planning must respond with appropriate services and policies to allow public transport to compete with private automobiles. there are two possible solutions. first, transit planning can utilize more flexible bus service, thus minimizing travel time by ensuring well-timed connections and providing these connections as effortlessly as possible with short walk distances, tight scheduling, and appropriate frequencies. demand-responsive transport (drt) is an effective method for instituting such a service. second, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2020.100570 transit planning can offer better sustainable accessibility by connecting public transit with other transport modes, such as bicycles. despite the well-known potential of flexible transport systems (fts; mounce, wright, emele, zeng, & nelson, 2018) in increasing the use of transit and accessibility of rural areas, the operational, technical, and-especially-market feasibility of such systems remains an issue. studies have shown that operational sustainability of fts is not always granted; funding is often an open issue; and in a number of cases, a need for high subsidies has emerged (jokinen, sihvola, & mladenovic, 2019; oecd & itf, 2015) . other detected barriers to the appeal, implementation, and use of fts are poor understanding of mobility needs, the lack of integration with other modes, the difficulty in framing demand and user behavior, and the lack of communication between users and agency (brake, mulley, nelson, & wright, 2007; te morsche, puello, & geurs, 2019; velaga et al., 2012) . the last big issue to consider is related to the lack of viable options to cover the "last mile" between public transport stops and people's final destinations. to the best of our knowledge, no experiment has yet been carried out specifically on the integration between a demand responsive transport system (drts) and an electric bike-sharing system (e-bss), with the latter simultaneously acting as feeder and complement to the bus network. 1 thus, this paper investigates the potential of the integration of a semi-flexible drts and an e-bss to effectively solve the problem of low transit travel demand. to achieve this aim, we analyzed the slovenian town of velenje as a case study. together with the municipality of velenje and through a consultation process with stakeholders and citizens, we developed a feasible and fundable drts proposal that integrates an extended version of the existing bss. we find that within the funding possibilities of the municipality and in full compliance with the objectives and targets of ongoing european union (eu)-funded programs, numerous progresses can be gained by benchmarking the proposal against the existing traditional bus system. this paper is structured as follows. section 2 details the current kirchhoff (1995) . velenje's location. 1 the integration of bike sharing (including e-bikes) and traditional transit systems has been studied previously and intensively. regarding the role of biking within modal integration, félix, cambra, and moura (2020) recently considered the effects of cycling infrastructure and the implementation of an e-bss in lisbon. they found that the combined effect of both interventions was a game changer for the city's cycling maturity. ma, zhang, li, wang, and zhao (2019) showed that demand patterns of commuters strongly impact the relationship between shared bikes and public transportation. their data showed that the transactions between shared bikes and buses had evident commuting characteristics during weekdays, while on weekends, travelers preferred to use shared bikes as a substitute for public transport. a similar result was achieved by sun, chen, and jiao (2019) , who considered how loyal members use a bss more for commuting while non-members use them more for recreation. fyhri and fearnley (2015) found that e-bikes, compared to traditional bikes, increased the number of trips and trip length for all age groups, regardless of trip reason (leisure or work), and are a practical and accepted solution for everyday travel. in a successive study, fyhri and beate sundfør (2020) found that e-bikes resulted in a greater shift away from cars compared to traditional bikes and argued that such mode shifts are long term rather than temporarily induced by good meteorological conditions or novelty. bronsvoort (2019) and bronsvoort, alonso-gonzález, van oort, molin, and hoogendoorn (2020) studied the possible upgrades for conventional pt services in rural settings, considering both the integration with a bss and the substitution with a drt, and found that time and cost are more important to users than reliability and flexibility. in a recent (footnote continued) study, sun et al. (2020) found that e-bikes prominently substituted car use for both commuting and shopping, and that those living in rural areas were among the most likely to forgo their cars in favor of e-bikes. guo and he (2020) studied the integration between bss and conventional public transport, concluding that areas with lower density of public transport stations have higher incidence of integrated use. from a drts planning perspective, studies agree that multimodality is a key driver for service sustainability and success (dirks et al., 2019; nelson & phonphitakchai, 2012) . features of the transit system in velenje. section 3 describes the method that we propose to improve the service, including an economic analysis. section 4 discusses the results obtained. finally, section 5 concludes the paper. velenje is slovenia's sixth largest town and is located 75 km (by road) northeast of the capital city ljubljana, 124 km south of the austrian city of graz, and 136 km northwest of zagreb (fig. 2) . in 2020, the slovenian municipality of velenje 2 was home to 33,330 inhabitants (table 1 ) distributed into 25 local communities (sistat, 2020). its morphological and demographic characteristics make it a typical example of a dispersed area: it lies in a relatively wide lake basin surrounded by a hilly and rural landscape, throughout which are scattered settlements (fig. 3) . to the west of the main urban core, the paka river valley leads towards central slovenia, hosting the railway towards ljubljana and a major road. also on the railway, the town of šoštanj lies on the lakeshore opposite velenje. the modal split in velenje is unbalanced towards the use of private cars, despite a car ownership rate of 500 cars/1000 inhabitants, which is less than the slovenian average of 541 cars/1000 inhabitants (european environmental agency, 2020; halilović, 2019) . comparing data collected in the 2016 and 2019 municipality surveys, 3 it is evident that the decrease in the modal share of private cars (61% vs 51%) has been fully compensated by an increase in the share of active modes (walking and cycling increased from 29% in 2016 to 39% in 2019). the role of public transport is therefore marginal (with a share of 10% and 8% respectively). the 2019 survey also investigated commuting distances, finding that a vast majority of respondents (78%) worked within 5 km of their home (table 2) , a distance that the slovenian ministry of transport considered to be cyclable in the 2017 guidelines for building pedestrian infrastructure (as cited in halilović, 2019) . these data demonstrate how the use of private cars exceeds expectations, which may be explained by the fact that public transport is currently not a daily commute option for those living outside the velenje city center, as schedules do not fit traditional office and business hours. to overcome the transport issues for those rural settlements lying in the northern, eastern, and southern sectors of the municipality of velenje, which are not served by rail or interurban buses, and to improve the modal share of public transport and active mobility, the city has established three suburban bus routes. the routes operate on weekdays only as part of a five-route local network (fig. 4) , and they have an inaugurated bss. the bus service, which cost €348,700 to run in 2019, is currently free of charge for users (municipality of velenje, 2020). in 2017, velenje's bus service transported 420,000 passengers, mostly aboard the yellow line in the city center (municipality of velenje, 2018). as shown in fig. 4 , three suburban routes-the blue, green, and orange lines-are currently in operation. the yellow line provides frequent service within the urban core, and the red line is a "virtual" line comprised of a longer interurban route. at peak times (e.g., school hours), the orange, blue, and green lines do not run, and specific students-only services are operated (municipality of velenje, 2020b). in total, up to four high-floor midi-buses are used for velenje's local services: three on the yellow route (two off-peak) and one alternately serving the blue, orange, and green lines (table 3 ). the red line does not have dedicated vehicles because it is shared between several longer routes; however, the service is subsidized by the municipality of velenje within the contract for the local bus system and has thus been included in the analysis. table 3 shows the route lengths and frequencies of the different lines. currently, the velenje bus system covers 272,480 km/year; thus, the value of the subsidy for public transport operations is 1.28 €/km. even if subsidized consistently by the municipality, the current public transport offer in velenje is underutilized. with the exception of the yellow line, it cannot be used to commute on a daily basis, as it does not operate during the morning rush hour and it offers a limited number of daily connections. its only, clear imprinting is that of facilitating weak categories such as the elderly and those impaired to drive in getting to the city center and making use of its functions, a common approach in slovenia's recent policy (gabrovec & bole, 2009 ). the yellow line, in contrast, provides relatively frequent service within central velenje. in short, velenje's public transit is characterized by a low frequency of service, lack of time coordination, low load factors, and a lack of ambition on the part of the municipality to fund it further. the only ways out of the vicious cycle in which deteriorating quality, tariff increases, and/or reduced routes lead to a lack of service are consistent resource investments from the authority in charge or a change in the service provision. this paper addresses these issues by proposing a different, integrated transportation concept for velenje and its suburbs that aims to increase the accessibility and ridership of its public transport, reducing the perceived distances between velenje and its nearby settlements while allowing the municipality to keep investments in public transport affordable. in this paper, a different strategy for velenje's mobility patterns that is based on a combination of a semi-flexible drts and an e-bss is discussed and evaluated through citizens' involvement (focus groups) and a preliminary cost analysis. the municipality of velenje has been successfully involved in eu-funded projects aimed at empowering cycling, walking, and public transport as a means to reduce externalities from the transport sector, enhance sustainability of commuting patterns, and increase accessibility throughout the region (recent and ongoing projects include chestnut, smile, and smart commuting). a discussion on possible options for changing the current underutilized public transport system began within the municipal offices and was later expanded as part of the smart commuting project. this paper is framed within that context and aims to design a financially sustainable transit network to best serve velenje's settlements. the combination of drts and e-bss has been identified as a promising solution through the analysis of the existing literature; this combination was refined thanks to a productive dialogue with the municipality of velenje and its citizens. relevant stakeholders and citizens were involved in this research through the eu-funded smart commuting project (which includes various engagement activities within the drafting of a sustainable urban mobility plan-sump-for the area) and through an interview campaign developed specifically as part of this research and carried out in the form of focus groups in march 2020. a preliminary part of this work aimed at identifying daily mobility issues that people living in velenje face and exploring how citizens may perceive a change in the transit system. focus group interviews were hence implemented to examine citizens' willingness to use the new transport system and the trade-off between travel modes. the results have guided the service design and policymaking. transportation researchers often use focus groups to collect data (e.g., hwang, li, stough, lee, & turnbull, 2020; levin, 2019; naznin, currie, & logan, 2017; pudāne et al., 2019) . focus group interviews have several advantages over face-to-face interviews or questionnaires (hwang et al., 2020) . they allow for direct interaction with participants, which can help the researcher to get better insight into their needs and opinions than asking them to fill out a questionnaire. in fact, participants can exchange anecdotes, views, and experiences as well as express ideas that otherwise may have gone unheard. moreover, this qualitative method is a cost-effective way of collecting data because group interviews take less time than individual interviews. we made a cautious effort to select a balanced mix of individuals in terms of age, gender, professional status, ownership and/or availability of a car, and area of residence. participants were recruited among residents through snowball sampling, a nonprobability approach that is often used in qualitative research and in which the researcher recruits a few volunteers who, in turn, recruit other volunteers. people were recruited if they lived in velenje, spoke english, were 18 years old or older, and had internet access. the authors acted as moderators for the focus groups. older people, who are usually retired and may need to use public transport the most, could be less confident speaking english or using the interview technology. thus, to prevent them from being overlooked in the focus groups, we invited their grandchildren/family members to help them. for those who did not have english-speaking friends or relatives, we made an interpreter available to ask questions in their native language of slovenian, allowing them to feel more comfortable. the participants were invited to the focus groups by e-mail or phone. we informed them about the focus group arrangements and asked for their consent to audio record the sessions and to use the collected data for scientific purpose. we guaranteed them that the data would be anonymized for confidentiality reasons. all participants agreed and gave permission for their quotes to be used in research publications. a total of 30 people were recruited. we organized three focus groups of 10 participants each. the sample size and group size choices were in line with the best practice literature (fern, 1982; guest, namey, & mckenna, 2017) . the groups had to be small enough for everyone to have the opportunity to share insights and yet large enough to provide diversity of perceptions, as suggested by krueger and casey (2015) . grouping people with similar characteristics increases the likelihood of shared experiences and fosters more comfortable conversation within each group (hesse-biber & leavy, 2011). we thus clustered the participants into three groups based on the area of residence (the suburban areas vs. the urban center of velenje) and, for residents in suburban areas, on age and professional status. since residents of less-served suburban areas might be more aware of the limits of the existing system and would more likely be the main potential users of the newly proposed public transport system, they were overrepresented with respect to people living in the city center. we further divided them into two groups since differences in the choice of transport mode may exist among younger working people and older retired ones. the interviews were conducted during the last two weeks of march 2020 via the skype and ms teams platforms. the covid-19 emergency prevented us from personally meeting the participants. however, as confirmed by the respondents, receiving a video call at home-an environment that is comfortable and familiar-decreased stress and made them feel more confident. moreover, it lowered time costs for the participants, allowing us to involve participants who would not have been willing to travel to reach the meeting place. fortunately, we did not encounter any technical issues, and everyone was able to easily connect to the platform. in alignment with the previous literature (krueger & casey, 2015; simons et al., 2014) , the interviews lasted approximately 50 min in order to avoid exhausting the respondents. long meetings often lead to decreased attention spans. the timeframe allowed us to avoid this while still having enough time to develop the main topics. before each focus group, all participants were asked to complete a short questionnaire to collect data about their sociodemographic characteristics, including gender, age, education, annual income, work status, and the number of cars owned by the family in order to identify users who are more likely to choose the new transport system. table 1 in appendix a summarizes this information. the overall sample was balanced between men and women. the majority of the respondents (43%) were between 25 and 44 years old, 33% were between 45 and 70 years old, and 23% were under 25. additionally, 53% had a full-time job, and 50% had a high school diploma. for half of the sample, the family owned only one car and had children. finally, 70% of the respondents stated that their annual family income was between €30,000 and €50,000. we then used semi-structured guided questions for the interviews. a full list of guided questions can be found in appendix b. the interview began by asking participants their current daily travel mode and the main determinants of their choice (i.e., why they do or do not use the existing public transport system). thus, we encouraged them to put forward any problems with the current system and to suggest improvements. a scenario-type approach was then employed in which participants were presented with the hypothetical new transit system that we had developed together with the municipality based on public data about the existing system (e.g., routes, areas served, and number of buses) and from previous literature. the newly proposed system f. bruzzone, et al. research in transportation business & management xxx (xxxx) xxxx accounted for many of the issues that emerged in the first part of the focus groups. we showed participants the velenje map and explained our draft proposal for serving the area, which features a fixed schedule "backbone" line, a number of on-demand stops to be served upon reservation, and an e-bss that would be promoted alongside the drts (see fig. 5 ). the use of the map enabled the participants to have a deeper understanding of the new system and to provide answers in a more systematic way. data analysis allowed us to identify four main themes: current mode choice, attitude towards buses, attitude towards cycling, and evaluation of the drts and e-bss. table 4 summarizes the main results. the focus groups pointed out noteworthy differences between citizens living in the urban center (group 1) and in the suburban areas (groups 2 and 3) of velenje. nearly 60% of the participants living in suburban areas owned at least two cars (70% for younger/working people vs. 50% for older/retired participants), whereas 80% of urban participants owned only one car. this difference is mainly explained by the poor accessibility and frequency of public transport in peripheral areas forcing respondents of these areas to choose a private car as their primary transportation mode. long distances, flexibility, and shorter travel times were the reasons suburban citizens primarily travelled by car. most of the respondents living in the urban area moved around the city center on foot or by personal bike. the short distance from their workplace to home was the main determinant of their choice. we observed differences between citizens in urban and peripheral areas in terms of their attitude towards using the bus. respondents living in suburban areas stated that they would like to use their cars less and switch to using the bus, but the limitations of the existing system prevented this. they stressed their need to walk more than 1 km to reach the nearest bus station and complained about long waiting times at stations. they pointed out the low frequency of buses, the mismatch between bus schedules and working hours, and inefficient bus routes (to reach as many areas as possible, the routes are long and only go in one direction, thus lengthening the time it takes to reach the city center). one participant (a 45-year-old male) stated the following: there are only four buses a day, and they ride a not convenient route for me; they go in the opposite direction than what i need. they travel a longer route and take 20/25 min to get me to work. with my car i reach the workplace in only 4 min. time matters. another woman (35 years old) complained "my working hours do not match with those of the bus, therefore i am forced to take the car." a retired woman claimed "i would take the bus to go downtown, but there are very few routes, and the risk is to wait too long to go home." for the respondents living in urban areas, they forgo using the bus to move around the city center, preferring active mobility facilitated by the short distances. unlike the people living in more peripheral areas, they were quite satisfied with the existing public transport in terms of frequency, daily coverage, and costs (buses are free of charge for velenje residents). the long distances from the city center and the hilly landscape of the suburban areas meant that most people living in such areas did not utilize bicycles to reach the city center. other factors, such as travelling with a child or having a lot to carry, also decreased the likelihood of cycling. younger people, however, stated that they made use of bikes, but only for recreational purposes. replies such as, "i have a traditional bike, but i am not fit enough to cycle uphill for a round trip" or "i am too lazy to cycle" were common among older respondents. citizens in urban areas, on the other hand, proved more inclined to use bicycles because of the flat nature of the route and the shorter distances. most of them, however, stated that they would only use bikes if the weather was nice. we asked respondents if they felt that the proposed system could overcome the issues previously mentioned and if they would be willing f. bruzzone, et al. research in transportation business & management xxx (xxxx) xxxx to switch to this new system. we also investigated affordable tickets, expected booking time, reservation and payment methods, and whether they agreed that this type of service could improve the level of transport service, especially in less-served suburban areas. we used the collected information and suggestions to better define the design and policymaking of the drts. overall, we recorded a positive perception of the new transport service, which we feel is even more significant given the pandemic period in which the interviews were conducted. as for the drts system, there was enthusiasm, especially among participants living in the suburbs. they stated that if such a service guaranteed that there would be bus stops located closer to their homes and destinations as well as more frequent buses during working hours, they would consider the use of public transit as their primary daily travel mode. this implies that drts is a promising transit service in this area. the e-bss, in contrast, was deemed useful, but less so for daily trips: i would not ride a bike, even an e-bike, to get the city center or to reach the nearest bus stop. i often carry bags; i play sax, and i often carry it with me, so it would be inconvenient for me to ride a bike. it would be different to use this service on weekends. in that case, yes, i would gladly take the bike. (23-year-old female). the area where i live is not flat, then the distance from the center is relevant … using the bike at my age and in these conditions (up and down) is not the best! but the electric bike could be a great solution. i could consider it, but only to have fun during a sunny day. (63year-old female). great the possibility to rent the electric bike and not have to buy it. you take it only when you need it, and if you shop and have bags with you, you go back by bus. i think it's a good idea. it is also a way of doing some physical exercise. (45-year-old female). the discussion with participants also generated topics that the moderator had not anticipated, such as environmental aspects. some participants were particularly aware of environmental issues and wanted to contribute to environmental protection in some way, such as by leaving their car at home. thus, they were happy with the proposal and hoped it would be implemented. regarding the economic aspects, even though the existing public transport is free of charge, all of the respondents from the suburban areas claimed that they would be willing to pay for a ticket if the new service guaranteed more flexibility in terms of transit times and coverage. most of the respondents, in fact, seemed to be well-aware of the costs incurred from operating a car (fuel economy, parking fees, maintenance, etc.) and were therefore willing to consider the trade-off with the new system. people in urban areas were also willing to pay a ticket, but on average at a lower price with respect to those in suburban areas. many citizens suggested keeping the price low and considering the same fare for on-demand bus and e-bike sharing services. the reservation requirement was not negatively perceived by respondents as a barrier that would restrict flexible travel. younger respondents were enthusiastic about the app as a reservation tool but at the same time expressed doubts about the effective accessibility of such technology for older people or for people who are reluctant towards new technologies. for such users, they suggested also allowing phone reservations. we registered the same attitude among older respondents. as previously mentioned, on-demand services can provide transit to more users at lower costs by efficiently employing economic resources in terms of vehicles, staff, and fuel, thus improving services without a significant cost increase (rahimi, amirgholy, & gonzales, 2018) . depending on the characteristics of the areas to be served, the elements of flexibility can vary and may include scheduling, type of operations, type of vehicle, and area of operations (oecd & itf, 2015) . based on the features of the operations, four settings in particular were identified by nocera and tsakarestos (2004) : line operation (one to one), band operation (few to one), sector operation (many to one), and area operation (many to many; fig. 6 ). a geographic information systembased analysis of current public transport operations and the distribution of households in the velenje area, together with some productive dialogue with the municipality of velenje, allowed us to identify the most relevant corridors and areas for public transport. these and other relevant settlements that are currently isolated will be included in the new drts and e-bss. a band type semi-flexible drts setting 4 was selected among various possibilities as the most suitable for serving the area. this setting features a fixed schedule "backbone" line together with a limited number of on-demand stops served on reservation. a second sector-type drt line would also be introduced to serve selected areas and connect them to the train station. to enhance system accessibility, the improvement of the bss and an increased number of available e-bikes is promoted alongside the drts. fig. 7 intuitively shows the functioning of a drt band-operation bus line, showing how the schedule may adjust for some intermediate stops to allow for efficient and reliable service in all situations, independently from the bus taking detours to serve on-demand stops or not. at selected intermediate stops, the schedule provides allowance for waiting in case the bus is requested to perform the longest route, thus allowing it to continue onwards within a given schedule allowance. this reduces the effectiveness of the service by lowering its commercial speed. however, it also cuts down on time fluctuations (which are generally not well-tolerated among customers), thus making up for some possible accumulated delay. as mentioned above, a semi-flexible drts was introduced for velenje. the draft discussed in the focus groups included two bus routes (to be operated by the existing fleet; see fig. 8 ), an extended bss (compatible with the existing system; fig. 8 ), and suggested a growth of the role played by buses and train stations as modal interchange hubs. during the early stages of the proposal development, a reduced bus coverage was considered, to be flanked by the additional provision of a collective taxi service to reach residents who live in rural communities and are unable to cycle. this option, however, was later scrapped due to excessive costs and low interest expressed by the municipality and key stakeholders, who stated their preference for a "proper" bus system. 5 for these reasons, the proposed drts has been expanded to virtually any location reachable by bus within the municipality of velenje, thus providing a sensible increase in public transport offering. another reason of concern while defining the new transit system for velenje was the substitution of the yellow line with an on-demand service. it is interesting to stress that the change arising with the demand shifting from buses to other modes might not be fully absorbed by active transport (coutinho et al., 2020) . however, in this particular situation, this might not be the case for one should also consider that the yellow line provides a useful yet inefficient service for those unable or unwilling to walk or cycle within the urban core. as explained in section 2 and as made evident by the focus groups' outcomes ("it is faster to walk [than to use the yellow line, ed]"), the yellow line mostly serves inelastic demand. moreover, velenje's city center is not an easily drivable area due to the many restrictions enforced. for these reasons, we believe that our proposed drt and e-bss could solve the issue presented by coutinho et al. for it aims at satisfying the inelastic demand that needs a pt service and it attracts new users currently relying on walking or driving to parking facilities and then walking the last mile. the architecture of the proposed drts for the velenje area is reported in fig. 9 , which shows the new bus lines (in blue and red) and their relation to new and existing bike sharing and bike parking facilities (grey with green and black borders, respectively). fig. 10 details the location of the bus stops and numbers them according to the schedule proposals reported in tables 4 and 5. the "backbone" line 1, represented in blue, would run on weekdays every 30 min from 6:00 to 20:00. it would operate as a fixed-schedule line with a limited number of on-demand diversions (band operations) and would perform 29 daily departures. diversions are designed to serve on-demand rural communities, often located uphill, thus easing access and regress to pt service while keeping costs and trip time low. the line would link the stadium (stop 1), where a parking lot is located, with the train station and the gorenje factory (stop 4), the main bus station (stop 7), and some of the most inhabited suburbs of the city (laze, bevče, pirešica, vinska gora, and prelska). line 2, shown in red, would operate as an on-demand feeder to line 1 along the red line. it would start at the train station (stop 4) and offer a 60-min headway between 6:00 and 19:00, with peak-time reinforcements. its scheduled departures, performed only if requested, would guarantee a quick interchange with line 1 at the train or bus stations. the line links velenje city center with škale (stops 29 and 30) and pesje (stops 32 and 33) before ending at the velenje-pesje train station. the details of the drts operations are reported in tables 5 and 6 . both lines would be operated according to a repetitive, easy-to-remember schedule. line 1 is 9.1 km one way (excluding on-demand diversions) and takes 23 min. including layovers, two vehicles would be (footnote continued) public transport. the balance between subsidy and fare revenue is at times also worse for collective taxi systems. the uk government statistical office (2020) declared a net subsidy per passenger trip of £0.628 in 2018/19, in line with values shown in the last decade, for rural pt services in england. a different government study (uk commission for integrated transport, 2008), instead, shows that collective taxi services in the uk and in mainland europe require a subsidy per passenger journey between £1 and £7, rising over £10 in smaller systems. needed to guarantee a 30-minute headway. line 2 is comprised of three different subsections-one serving škale (8 km long), one serving pesje (6.2 km long), and a loop serving the velenje city center and bus station (6.1 km long)-all of which would be operated on demand only and would terminate at the train station. one vehicle could guarantee a 60minute headway on all sections, as shown in table 5 . stops of both lines have been chosen in full accordance with the municipality of velenje, and existing stops (when present) have been maintained and reassigned to the new system. moreover, as mentioned already, a gis-based analysis has allowed to identify the distribution of households and population in the area. reservations would be made by phone or using a web application, with expected pickup times of a few minutes. the use of recent, realtime operations technological innovations would contribute to making fts a more inclusive, reliable, and attractive format compared to the current service (dimitrakopoulos, uden, & varlamis, 2020; mohamed, rye, & fonzone, 2019). current information communication technologies allow for real-time scheduling, which is managed by on-board a bss was recently developed in velenje as part of the european project known as chestnut (municipality of velenje, 2020c). the system has since been expanded and now offers 57 bikes distributed among 12 stations in velenje (including three e-bikes; see fig. 7 ) and 25 bikes among five stations in the nearby town of šoštanj (municipality of velenje, 2020d). since both the implementation and maintenance phases have been fully funded by eu funds, the existing bss should not be included among current costs for public and shared mobility (bicy, 2020) . this paper proposes a reinforcement of the bss outside the city's main core for use as a feeder to both bus lines, with a specific focus on the modal interchange between both shared and private bikes and the fixed-operations buses of line 1. the integration of drt and bike sharing is, to the authors' knowledge, an innovative solution in rural contexts, and literature on the topic is not very extensive. however, benefits from "hardware" and "software" integration between multiple transport modes, which contribute to the mobility as a service concept, have been significant in a variety of studies as highlighted in ambrosino, nelson, boero, and pettinelli (2016) . the expansion of velenje's bss would include the provision of 28 additional docking stations, six of which would be located at bus stops, and 96 e-bikes. despite increasing investments and maintenance costs, the choice of ebikes as a complement to the existing bss is necessary due to the hilly geography of the area. 6 the weather in velenje is known to be mild, with cold but dry winters compared to ljubljana and to the slovenian average (weatherbase, 2020) . 7 the valley surrounding the city is sometimes advertised as the "valley of the sun". the literature has demonstrated that even with typical north-european weather, the use of e-bikes is consistent (fyhri & beate sundfør, 2020; sun, feng, kemperman, & spahn, 2020) ; the favorable climate in velenje has aided the success of the existing bss and encouraged future expansions, such as the one proposed in this paper. stations located in proximity to bus stops would be similar than existing ones, with eight to 10 docks, a standard rotation of five e-bikes, and racks for safe storage of personal bikes, per european guidelines (obis-iee, 2011). stations located in rural settlements would be smaller, with an endowment of three e-bikes and five docks, in an effort to contain costs while enhancing the accessibility of the drts via bss or private bike. fig. 7 shows existing (grey with black border) and new (grey with green border) bss locations. moreover, a digital tool will be made available for desktop and mobile use. the tool will manage all aspects related to service registration, bookings, payments, and information for both the bss and the drts. access to services will be granted by phone for users not acquainted with web technology. an additional or alternative measure to the development of the e-bss would be the provision of financial incentives to support private citizens in the purchase of their own (e)-bike. this measure was however not included in this paper as, unlike the expansion of the bss, it is not a structural solution and it is also not fundable through eu funds. the municipality of velenje acknowledged that the possibility of obtaining regional/national funds for this policy is scant under the current regional and national administrations, and that they had no political interest in such a solution. indeed, the outcomes of a plan of this sort are uncertain and, more importantly, it does not provide the city with bss infrastructure. the combination of semi-flexible drts and e-bss would increase the number of daily connections in velenje's settlements. in particular, residents of škale and pesje would benefit from a maximum of 14 daily rides compared to the current four and eight, respectively. residents of settlements located to the east of velenje, currently served by the green and orange lines, would benefit from a maximum of 29 daily rides compared to the existing four. e-bikes and personal bike storage at bus stops would allow residents of rural communities to access the drts, thus increasing the potential user base. the integrated strategy as a whole is expected to generate a modal shift at the expense of private motorized transport (cass & faulconbridge, 2016) by expanding the number of potential users thanks to better coverage (both spatial and temporal, introducing peak time services and modal integration), thus allowing for a reduction in external costs generated by mobility in the area. the diverse elements of the proposed integrated strategy-the new, semi-flexible drt; the expansion of the bss with the provision of 96 e-bikes and 28 additional stations; and the development of a digital tool to manage the system-were subject to a cost analysis, which was compared with the current public transport and bike sharing offer. the cost analysis is reported in the following section. as discussed in the previous sections, the new transport system would prove particularly useful for satisfying velenje citizens' mobility needs. the project, however, must be economically feasible in order for the municipality to implement it. this section aims to verify whether the proposed transport system is economically advantageous compared to the existing one. for this purpose, we considered all the costs related to the implementation of a drts, an e-bss, and their integration. according to rahimi et al. (2018) , the costs for operating a bus public transport system typically include capital costs for vehicle purchases as well as variable operational costs related to fleet size (e.g., taxes, registration costs, and vehicle insurance), vehicle hours travelled (e.g., total wages, fringe costs, and overhead costs), and vehicle miles travelled (e.g., fuel, tires, and body repair). the total operating costs are usually shown in terms of operational hours and kilometers. the municipality of velenje awarded the public transport contract to a local contractor and currently pays an annual service contribution of €348,731, which covers an average annual distance equal to 272,480 km; thus, the service has an all-inclusive cost of 1.28 €/km, of which 53% goes to operating costs and 47% to drivers' wages (municipality of velenje, 2020). the proposed integrated system would optimize the overall routes by both lowering the minimum number of vehicles required to meet the demand without violating the time window constraint (thus decreasing the number of drivers) and by reducing the overall annual distance travelled. the latter varies between 137,228 km if no citizens reserve the on-demand bus service, and therefore the bus does not deviate from the main route, and 226,200 km if all of the on-demand stops must be served, thus considering both detour and line-haul travels. consequently, considering the current cost per km, the annual costs for operating the bus service range between €175,652 and €289,536. a monte carlo algorithm allowed us to use the process of repeated random sampling to make numerical estimations of such parameter. we thus estimated an annual distance travelled of 177,516 km and an annual cost for operating the integrated system equal to €227,220. an e-bss is both a flexible addition/complement and an alternative to the public transport system. this system thus represents an opportunity for public transport operators to increase the attractiveness of their services because bikes can be used independently of timetables. the main costs to implement such a service from an operational point of view can be divided into two categories: infrastructure and start of the 6 e-bikes have proven to be particularly useful when trip distances are important and when vulnerabilities-both in terms of the lay of the urban land (for example in the case of hilly streets) and individual physical conditions (for example, when considering people with health difficulties and physical impairments)-make traditional bicycles unsuitable. an e-bike reduces the effort required while saving travel time. thus, an e-bss can enhance connectivity for cities that are not bike friendly and have underdeveloped public transportation systems (ji, cherry, han, & jordan, 2014; langford, cherry, yoon, worley, & smith, 2013 service as well as operating costs. the costs of implementing large-scale systems (solar or grid-powered stations) would vary from €2500-3000 per bicycle (obis-iee, 2011), depending on the system configuration. this range includes both the hardware (bicycles, stations, workshop, etc.) and software (system back end and customer interfaces). the operating costs would be between €1500-2500 8 per bicycle per year, though this would vary according to the size of the system and the usage rates. the greater the bicycle usage, the greater the maintenance costs, customer support needs, and redistribution interventions. hence, the cost per bicycle would increase. overall, the total cost for implementing such a service is estimated at €288,600 (purchase of e-bikes and stalls) and €144,000/year (maintenance). the integration between the drt and e-bss with the existing bss is an important aspect that should be taken into consideration. such an integration must take place on three levels: integration of information for facilitating intermodality, physical integration in order to integrate the bss with public transport during peak hours or in areas where public transport cannot satisfy all mobility requests, and integration of technological methods of access to services and tariffs. to this aim, we propose e-bike sharing stations located near bus stops and outside the city center for use in combination with public transport. regarding access and rates, taking into account the suggestions collected during the focus groups, we propose a fully integrated fare and ticketing system. such a change would allow citizens to use public transport and rent bikes/e-bikes for bike sharing with a single card or take advantage of special discounts, such as a single daily rate or a special discount for using bike sharing and other mobility services. these integrations would inevitably rely on mobile technology and thus require management software and an app. however, this would enhance public transport use and facilitate operational planning. among the most significant its applications for the modernization and rationalization of the public transport sector are the avl/avm systems for real-time tracking and localization of vehicles; user information systems for providing real-time waiting time at stops and/or on personal devices (smartphones/tablets); and multimodal and multicarrier platforms for mobile payments (based on microchip smartcards, contactless smartcards, short message service, mobile apps, nearfield communication, the internet, etc.). the overall costs of implementing such software would depend on its complexity. we estimate that it would cost €40,000, of which €20,000 would be used to equip each bus with an avl/avm system for real-time tracking and localization of vehicles, and the other €20,000 would go to the trip planning and the payment app (osservatorio nazionale sulle politiche del trasporto pubblico locale, 2015). the advantages derived from the application of its will be significant both for citizens (in terms of the regularity and reliability of the improved service) as well as for the services company and programmers. the mere extension of the avl/ avm system to the entire circulating fleet could lead to relevant savings in terms of the regularity of the vehicles, fuel savings, optimization of the use of vehicles, and driver shifts. as summarized in table 7 , considering the overall costs of the individual systems and their integration, we estimate an initial investment equal to €328,600 and an annual operating cost equal to €371,220 (the latter only €22,500 higher than the costs of the current system). although the new system requires an initial investment and annual operating costs that are overall higher than the annual contribution currently paid by the municipality, we believe that the public will find it attractive and economically advantageous for at least three reasons. firstly, the new system would allow for a reduction in social costs by promoting a modal shift from private transport to bicycles and/or public transport. this would contribute not only to lower urban air and noise pollution but also increase citizens' well-being through the use of table 7 cost analysis. bruzzone, et al. research in transportation business & management xxx (xxxx) xxxx active transportation modes. the latter is both a direct effect given by new users of bike sharing and an indirect effect given by the greater diffusion of cycling that the presence of bike sharing typically induces. additionally, the presence of personal bike stands alongside those dedicated to bike sharing (which are monitored) reduces the risk of theft of individuals' personal bikes. in this sense, the bike sharing could contribute to bicycle marketing by giving it a positive and smart aspect and, more generally, to the development of an advanced and attractive image of the city that does not undervalue equity considerations. secondly, the integration of bike sharing with drts and the existing transport services (in terms of registration, payments, and unique smart cards for accessing services) would allow users to combine multiple modes of transport and thus contribute to making travel more convenient and efficient. for this reason, we expect an increase in the demand for such a system with respect to the existing one (equal to 35,000 passengers per month). however, even if the demand remained unchanged with respect to the current system, if the service required a fee (an integrated ticket) equal to €1 per ride, the municipality could obtain an annual revenue of €420,000, which would completely recover the initial investment in just one year. if the municipality instead chose to institute the new service free of charge (no registration and/or use fees), it could cover the annual imbalance with respect to the status quo by relying on advertising contracts, sponsorships (for the entire service or for individual components, stations, and/or bicycles), or revenue generated by parking charges or congestion charges. thirdly, the proposed system might help reducing the marginalization processes that typically characterize rural areas (daniels & mulley, 2012; vitale brovarone & cotella, 2020) . the low density and the peculiar geomorphological characteristics of such areas, generally combined with considerable distances from the city center where basic services and work and leisure opportunities are located, make these territories highly car-dependent. thus, the poor transit quality of velenje's surroundings definitely leads to reduced mobility of those who, due to age, economic, or cultural barriers, have no permanent access to a car. the proposed system, by providing a widespread and equitable mobility offer (not only to the elderly, but also to young people), might help not only to increase active mobility, alleviate congestion, and reduce environmental impacts, but also to counteract transport-related social exclusion. the resulting improved accessibility will thus contribute to a sustainable development of velenje. in this paper, we analyzed an unattractive and uncoordinated transit system in a slovenian town and proposed a new system organization based on the combination of a semi-flexible drt and an e-bss in order to solve an evident performance problem and promote the local population's use of public transport. this combined service would incorporate coordinated schedules for an easy-to-remember headway and to provide users with real-time information. the purpose is to minimize waiting times and operating costs while introducing a series of elements capable of increasing the perceived quality and thus shifting demand shares from private transport (chakrabarti, 2017) . in any pilot project that is based on the identification of the mobility needs of the populations concerned and on shortcomings in the current transport offer, the aim is to offer a system of transport services that can meet demand needs at an adequate level of service with minimal social cost for the community (liu & xu, 2018) . in such cases, the trial phase should be followed by regular assessments in order to correctly calibrate significant parameters. our results demonstrate that the proposed system would provide better quality service for the transit customers in velenje while using approximately the same amount of financial resources for its operation. compared to the existing bus system, the proposed combined drt and e-bss provides all-day service to a wider percentage of the local population, thus enhancing social inclusion and empowering those who are currently unable to reach the city center and train and bus stations autonomously. contextually, this system may also enable the local municipality to generate resources to cover the up-front costs through the introduction of low-price tickets and seasonal tickets. evidence from the focus group survey demonstrated a moderate consensus among the sample of possible customers, who expressed a substantial willingness to pay for a drt service that offers a high level of satisfaction. other results demonstrated the possibility of actually cutting down some external costs due to reductions in car use. some relevant gains were also apparent in the variation in the customers' average travel time: the performance of the integrated drts and e-bss would be supported by the application of an its solution for conveying information to customers. in interpreting these results, we have made some conservative assumptions to bolster our argument. first of all, the discussion of the results has not included any possible increase in travel demand, even though it seems legitimate to expect a customer gain due to the increased attractiveness of the transit supply. this, in turn, can generate positive effects related to (possible) consistently higher revenues, which could be the object of a specific assessment. the same holds true for the analysis of travel times: by its refinement, it could also be possible to see some positive time gains and consequent financial savings. another aspect to consider is the possibility to improve the level of customer satisfaction through specific actions, such as the creation of dedicated interchange facilities. in our proposal, we have tried to contain the expense figures and hence did not consider such a possibility in an earlier phase. however, because the proposed system is based on the train and bus stations, this lays the groundwork for further integrations in the future. furthermore, we did not consider the option of covering the initial infrastructural costs through revenues not already available to the municipality (e.g., those possibly deriving from the acquisition of a future eu-funded project, outstanding state loans, or contributions by foundations). however, the involvement of other key stakeholders could also bring advantages to the integrated system project. the methodology presented here is generalizable to other similar contexts, which is a significant advantage and a relevant benefit for policy purposes. future research could involve the use of optimization models to improve operational efficiency of the transport service (iliopoulou & kepaptsoglou, 2019; verma, kumari, tahlyan, & hosapujari, 2017; wei et al., 2017) or to tackle service and energy costs more specifically (batarce & galilea, 2018; brown, 2018; cavallaro, danielis, nocera, & rotaris, 2018; tong, hendrickson, biehler, jaramillo, & seki, 2017) . future work could also examine additional customer-oriented smart services because interconnected transit solutions foster the possibility of offering further specific services to organizations and transit users (nocera, fabio, & cavallaro, 2020) . finally, some heuristic meta-strategies could be used to improve the design of the bus routes (bräysy, dullaert, & nakari, 2009; suman & bolia, 2019) . sustainable mobility practices can be fostered through the promotion and diffusion of the right technologies as well as by offering combinations of transportation modes that are favorable to the population. ad-hoc measures aimed at increasing the availability and quality of public transport services can rebalance the preferred mode of transport in favor of sustainable transportation and reduce the number of vehicles on the road (lah, 2019) . the goal is to create a mobility system that strengthens the competitiveness of the territories through high quality services while also ensuring a more effective use of resources. among the key issues is the better integration of modal networks through increasingly connected systems and multimodal connection platforms for passengers. successful, environmentally friendly solutions include smart mobility (lyons, 2018) , carpooling and carsharing (bulteau, feuillet, & dantan, 2019) , enhancement of local transport (mctigue, rye, & monios, 2020) , integrated planning of transport modes (holz-rau & scheiner, 2019), apps and systems for infomobility (catalano & migliore, 2014) , the construction of new cycle paths (mayakuntla & verma, 2018) , toll and pricing policies (cavallaro, giaretta, & nocera, 2018) , and electric mobility (lemme, arruda, & bahiense, 2019) . in this context, any pilot projects that foster integrated planning into this process would have particular value. in this paper, we described the integration of an e-bss and a drts to solve the issue of low demand for public transport in the slovenian town of velenje. in general terms, placing a pilot action in real contexts means involving local stakeholders and policymakers from the very first stages of planning. additionally, the plan must consider how differences in infrastructure, geography, orography, settlement and urban planning, and travel demand (including non-systematic mobility) may influence the definition of the key aspects of the system. in the case of system combinations, a main transport system along the primary routes must coexist with one or more adduction systems supporting it (le pira, ignaccolo, inturri, pluchino, & rapisarda, 2016) . our results show that with funding levels comparable to the existing conventional bus system, a combination of drts and e-bss could be set up to offer broader service hours to a greater share of municipal citizens. unlike most literature on the topic, in this paper, we developed and evaluated a preliminary cost analysis of this fundable system and concluded that even if there was no increase in users and no application of fares, the municipality of velenje would be able to finance the proposed system with its own resources or by participation in eu-funded sustainable mobility projects. the proposed integrated mobility system presented here would not optimally solve transport issues in velenje's suburban areas; however, it would increase the number of settlements with daily and frequent access to the train and bus stations and to public functions downtown, thus allowing citizens to access public transit and sharing services independently and to choose them for their daily commute. thus, the proposed system would allow for more equitable distribution of opportunities and accessibility throughout the municipality, making a small step towards transport universality. people and authorities of the 21st century tend to take for granted freedom of movement. however, awareness is growing regarding the environmental and social costs of travelling as well as the need for fair, inclusive, and accessible transport systems. some concerns about individual responsibilities for containing primary pollution are also emerging at both the local level (zhou & lin, 2019) and on a global scale as more people are now conscious of and concerned by climate change (nocera, ruiz-alarcón quintero, & cavallaro, 2018; nocera & tonin, 2014; nocera, tonin, & cavallaro, 2015) . to some extent, the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) crisis has shown that individual behavior can be substantially modified and travel substituted through technological innovations. in many cases, however, there is still no substitute for direct contact, which requires physical displacement and the subsequent creation of certain social costs. however, these costs can be contained through the provision of efficient and lowimpact transport systems. the provision of such services must be a central consideration in order to guarantee sustainable future development. however, considering the complexity of modal split mechanisms, striving for an efficient and low impact service may not be sufficient to reduce the negative effects of the mobility system as a whole. this research has been developed under the common responsibility of all authors. (continued on next page) − welcome and thank the participants. − introduce yourself and provide a brief description of the research. − review the ground rules: everyone's ideas are important, and everyone will be given an opportunity to speak. there are no right or wrong answers; even negative comments are useful in gaining insight about the topic under discussion. − remind everyone that the session will be recorded. − remind everyone that the whole process is confidential: anonymity will be kept; all the audio recordings and transcriptions will be used solely for research purposes. − provide the researchers' contact details. − ask if there are any initial questions before the focus group starts. − ask everybody to introduce themselves: discuss the existing public transport in velenje (20 min): − which mode of transport do you use most often to go to the city center? which are the main determinants of your choice? − why do you (or do not) use public transport? • let people share their thoughts and experiences. − do you have a bike? do you usually ride a bike to go to the city center? why? • let people share their thoughts and experiences. introduce a scenario-type approach in which the focus group participants are presented the drts + e-bss (15 min): − explain that this is our draft scheme based on previous contacts with the municipality and on the literature. • are you interested in this service? why or why not? • would you be willing to pay a ticket for this new service? if so, how much would you be willing to pay? • is 30-min notice enough time to book the bus service? • booking and payment would be done via app. would this be acceptable? − thank all the focus group participants for their time and effort. − remind them that the use of all information collected will be confidential. − ask the participants whether they would like to receive a follow up (to be generally informed about the conclusions of the study). enabling intermodal urban transport through 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and velenje evaluating public transit services for operational efficiency and access equity spatial-temporal heterogeneity of air pollution: the relationship between built environment and on-road pm2.5 at micro scale research in transportation business & management xxx (xxxx) xxxx key: cord-268193-xwptzgvl authors: wang, tzong-luen; jang, tsrang-neng; huang, chien-hsien; kao, shang-jyh; lin, chor-ming; lee, fang-niarn; liu, cheng-yao; chong, chee-fah; lin, chu-mei; dorji, harnod; teng, hsueh-ju; chang, hang title: establishing a clinical decision rule of severe acute respiratory syndrome at the emergency department() date: 2003-12-29 journal: ann emerg med doi: 10.1016/j.annemergmed.2003.08.002 sha: doc_id: 268193 cord_uid: xwptzgvl study objective: in the absence of reliable rapid confirmatory tests during severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) endemics, we designed a 2-phase cohort study to establish a scoring system for sars and to evaluate whether it could improve the sensitivity and specificity of the world health organization (who) criteria. methods: according to the clinical characteristics and initial laboratory findings of 175 suspected cases defined by the who criteria (20 confirmed as cases of sars) in 3 university teaching hospitals in taipei between march 1 and april 20, 2003, the scoring system for sars was designed by multivariate analysis and stepwise logistic regression as the simple arithmetic sum of point values assigned to 7 parameters. we thereafter applied the scoring system for sars to the consecutive 232 patients (the validation group) who met the who criteria of suspected cases from april 21 to may 22, 2003. final diagnosis of sars was determined by the results of real-time polymerase chain reaction and paired serum. results: the scoring system for sars was defined as radiographic findings of multilobar or bilateral infiltrates (3 points), sputum monocyte predominance (3 points), lymphocytopenia (2 points), history of exposure (1 point), lactate dehydrogenase more than 450 u/l (1 point), c-reactive protein more than 5.0 mg/dl (1 point), and activated partial prothrombin time more than 40 seconds (1 point). of the validation group, 60 patients (group a) were confirmed as having cases of sars, and the other 172 (group b) patients tested negative for sars. the total points of the scoring system for sars at initial presentation were significantly higher in the sars group (median 9; range 6 to 11) than in the non-sars group (median 4; range 3 to 7; p<.001). at the cutoff value of 6 points, the sensitivity and specificity of the scoring system for sars in diagnosing sars were 100% and 93%, respectively. the positive and negative predictive values of the scoring system for sars were 83% and 100%, respectively. conclusion: the scoring system for sars can provide a rapid and reliable clinical decision to help emergency physicians detect cases of sars more accurately in the endemic area. study objective: in the absence of reliable rapid confirmatory tests during severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) endemics, we designed a 2-phase cohort study to establish a scoring system for sars and to evaluate whether it could improve the sensitivity and specificity of the world health organization (who) criteria. methods: according to the clinical characteristics and initial laboratory findings of 175 suspected cases defined by the who criteria (20 confirmed as cases of sars) in 3 university teaching hospitals in taipei between march 1 and april 20, 2003, the scoring system for sars was designed by multivariate analysis and stepwise logistic regression as the simple arithmetic sum of point values assigned to 7 parameters. we thereafter applied the scoring system for sars to the consecutive 232 patients (the validation group) who met the who criteria of suspected cases from april 21 to may 22, 2003. final diagnosis of sars was determined by the results of real-time polymerase chain reaction and paired serum. results: the scoring system for sars was defined as radiographic findings of multilobar or bilateral infiltrates (3 points), sputum monocyte predominance (3 points), lymphocytopenia (2 points), history of exposure (1 point), lactate dehydrogenase more than 450 u/l (1 point), c-reactive protein more than 5.0 mg/dl (1 point), and activated partial prothrombin time more than 40 seconds (1 point). of the validation group, 60 patients (group a) were confirmed as having cases of sars, and the other 172 (group b) patients tested negative for sars. the total points of the scoring system for sars at initial presentation were significantly higher in the sars group (median 9; range 6 to 11) than in the non-sars group (median 4; range 3 to 7; p<.001). at the cutoff value of 6 points, the sensitivity and specificity of the scoring system for sars in diagnosing sars were 100% and 93%, respectively. the positive and negative predictive values of the scoring system for sars were 83% and 100%, respectively. conclusion: the scoring system for sars can provide a rapid and reliable clinical decision to help emergency physicians detect cases of sars more accurately in the endemic area. the possibly low sensitivity of the who criteria, we reported a 2-phase study that included developing a scoring system for sars in a cohort population and validating it in a second cohort. the febrile patients who consulted our institutes (3 university teaching hospitals, accounting for a population of 700,000 in taipei, taiwan) and met with the who criteria of suspected sars were prospectively enrolled in this study beginning march 2003. the history of exposure and associated symptoms such as cough, dyspnea, myalgia, diarrhea, and rigor were recorded. all patients were completely evaluated in isolated facilities at an emergency department (ed) within 3 hours and underwent cbc count (with a differential count), clotting profiles (prothrombin time, activated partial-thromboplastin time, international normalized ratio), and biochemical measurements. in addition, chest radiographs were obtained. throat swab, sputum, or both were collected for gram's stain and screening tests for common viruses, notably influenza a and b and respiratory syncytial virus. legionella and pneumococcal urinary antigen testing were also examined. final diagnosis of sars was documented by the center for disease control in taiwan after polymerase chain reaction and paired serum for coronavirus antibody were measured. with positive polymerase chain reaction, positive paired serum, or both, the patients were confirmed as having sars. patients considered probable cases according to the who criteria were admitted, and the others were disposed to be isolated at home for 10 days. convalescent serum was obtained during admission for the former patients and at 14 days at our clinics for the latter patients. anyone who had clinical deterioration during home isolation was immediately transported back to the hospital by ambulance. the protocol was approved by our institutional review board, and informed consent was obtained. performance of the multivariate analysis and derivation of the risk score were based on the derivation patients with complete data at presentation. univariate relationships between baseline characteristics (including clinical symptoms and signs and radiologic and laboratory examinations mentioned previously) and the diagnosis of sars were assessed by logistic regression analysis. independent predictors of sars were identisevere acute respiratory syndrome (sars) is a disease manifested by atypical pneumonia and rapid progression to respiratory distress. [1] [2] [3] [4] it has been proven to be caused by the coronavirus. [5] [6] [7] according to the definition of the world health organization (who), 8 characteristics of a suspected case are a documented fever (body temperature >38°c [>100.3°f]), lower respiratory symptoms, and contact with index patients. a patient with chest radiographic findings of pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexplained respiratory disease resulting in death with autopsy results demonstrating the pathology comparable with sars is considered a probable case. although the who has provided the guidelines for sars control and some diagnostic tools such as polymerase chain reaction, 6, 7, 9 indirect fluorescent antibody, or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay antibody are being developed, 9 there are still many clinical difficulties in diagnosing the disease quickly. for example, the sensitivity of polymerase chain reaction is still uncertain, and the antibody titer may be detectable at the 10th to 21st day after the onset of sars. 9 it is a difficult issue for emergency physicians to detect patients with sars specifically if there is neither a reliable history of exposure nor a rapid diagnostic tool. recent epidemiologic studies in hong kong 1,2 and canada 3,10 demonstrated the clinical characteristics and important laboratory findings of sars. to improve no tests or predictive models exist to establish a diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) in the emergency department (ed) setting. a sars diagnostic scoring system using information available in the ed was developed from 175 suspected sars cases and validated in 232 subsequent cases. a scoring system based on radiographic infiltrates, history of exposure, and 5 laboratory tests was helpful in discriminating true sars cases. although this scoring system may not perform as well in areas with different sars epidemiology, it is an important first step in developing diagnostic strategies for this new illness. significant predictors of sars (table 2 ). in addition, the 7-variable regression model demonstrated a good discriminatory capacity with a c statistic of 0.750. these 7 characteristics accounted for 98% of the predictive capacity of the multivariate model and were selected for inclusion in the scoring system for sars. accordingly, the scoring system for sars was defined as radiographic findings of multilobar or bilateral infiltrates (3 points), monocyte predominance on sputum gram's stain (which was defined as the monocyte: polymorphs more than 1:1, 3 points), peripheral lymphocytes less than 1.0×10 9 /l (2 points), history of exposure to index patients (1 point), lactate dehydrogenase more than 450 u/l (upper normal limit 225 u/l; 1 point), c-reactive protein more than 5.0 mg/dl (upper normal limit 0.5 mg/dl; immage immunochemistry system, beckman coulter, fullerton, ca ; 1 point), and activated partial prothrombin time more than 40 seconds (1 point). we have prospectively tested the diagnostic accuracy of the scoring system in sars since april 21, 2003. a total of 232 patients with suspected sars were enrolled to test the predictive capacity of the scoring system in fied by stepwise logistic regression. all variables at presentation entered the initial model and were maintained if the p value was less than .05. selection of independent predictors for inclusion in the scoring system for sars was based on their relative predictive contribution in the full logistic regression model. variables were ranked by z score, and those with the least contribution were sequentially removed from the model until 7 variables that captured 98% of the overall prognostic information from the full multivariate model (evaluated as a ratio of the global 2 statistic from the reduced compared with full model) were reached. for each patient, the scoring system for sars was calculated as the simple arithmetic sum of point values assigned to each risk factor according to the multivariate-adjusted risk relationship: 1 point for an odds ratio (or) of 1.0 to less than 2.0, 2 points for an or of 2.0 to 3.0, and 3 points for an or of more than 3.0. for evaluation of the risk score in the suspected cases, missing variables contributed a point value of 0 to the total score. the discriminatory capacity of the risk score was assessed by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (roc) curve as an index of model performance in both derivation and validation phases. the roc curve reflects the concordance of predictions with actual outcomes in rank order, with an roc curve of 1. in the derivation phase, we studied 175 patients enrolled between march 1, 2003, and april 20, 2003 , to develop the scoring system for sars. these patients consulted the ed because they met the who criteria of suspected sars. twenty of the patients were confirmed as having cases of sars, whereas the other 155 patients tested negative for sars. each of the initial clinical characteristics was evaluated by univariate analysis (table 1 ). when all of the candidate variables were assessed simultaneously by multivariate analysis, 7 remained table 1 . tims in group a had a scoring system for sars of at least 6 points. twelve patients of group b had 6 points, and the remaining 160 had a scoring system for sars less than or equal to 5 points. at this cutoff value of 6 points, the sensitivity and specificity of the scoring system for sars were 100% and 93%, respectively. the positive and negative predictive values were 83% and 100%, respectively. in contrast, the sensitivity of the who criteria for suspected cases was only 26%. the sensitivity and specificity of the who criteria for probable cases were 96% and 57%, respectively, and its positive and negative predictive values were 44% and 98%, respectively. there are still some limitations in our study. first, the coronavirus that is the pathogen of sars has been reported to have many genetic variations. whether the genetic variations can produce different clinical manifestations remains to be elucidated. therefore, the scoring system for sars may be continuously modified to maintain its diagnostic reliability. second, there were 2 patients who had coronavirus and bacterial infections (acinetobacter sp and s pneumoniae). mixed infection may produce confusing clinical pictures that reduce the accuracy of the scoring system for sars in diagnosing sars. third, the scoring system for sars is a clinical decision rule for suspected cases of sars instead of a in the sars group, the most common presentations at the early stage were the presence of abnormal chest radiograph results (97%; 58/60), followed by monocyte-predominant sputum smear (80% of the patients with sars, or 100% of the sputum smears for 48 patients whose sputum samples could be obtained), lymphocytopenia (67%, 40/60), elevated lactate dehydrogenase level (53%; 32/60) and abnormal c-reactive protein level (50%; 30/60; table 3 ). the criteria of prolonged partial prothrombin time, thrombocytopenia, abnormal creatine kinase level, and alanine transaminase depicted in table 1 were met in 41% (25/60), 33% (20/60), 23% (14/60), and 23% (14/60) of patients. in contrast, the patients in the non-sars group had a significantly lower incidence of these manifestations ( table 3) . the total points of the scoring system for sars at initial presentation were significantly higher in the sars group (median 9; range 6 to 11) than in the non-sars group (median 4; range 3 to 7; p<.001). all of the vicseemed relatively high but still not high enough. the 3% missing rate could become a pitfall in surveillance and possibly cause a devastating event in the endemic area. the only perfect clinical decision rule for such infectious diseases should have 100% sensitivity, as the scoring system for sars provided. the use of the algorithm might also partially account for the absence of hospital staff infection in our institute during this event. our data demonstrated monocyte predominance on sputum smear presented as a critical finding in the early stage of sars. although the patients might have only dry cough and scanty sputum that resulted in relatively low availability of the data (80% in our series), we still strongly recommend examining sputum smear because of its strong positive predictive value for sars and low cost. to prompt early diagnosis, our study has focused on the early manifestations of sars instead of its fullblown characteristics. in our series, patients with sars had similar clinical manifestations during hospitalization, as investigators in hong kong reported. 2 of 60 patients with sars in this study, 100% had a temperature higher than 38°c (>100.3°f), 67% had cough, and 63% had myalgia along the whole course. the overall laboratory findings during hospitalization included lymphocytopenia (73%), thrombocytopenia (47%), elevated lactate dehydrogenase (>450 u/l; 77%), increased c-reactive protein (>5 mg/dl; 63%) and prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (>40 seconds; 53%). the full-blown manifestations were different from the initial presentations that the emergency physicians always observed. in summary, in the absence of available diagnostic tools that can provide confirmatory results at an early stage, the scoring system for sars can help emergency physicians make rapid and accurate diagnosis of sars quickly and cost-efficiently. author contributions: all authors jointly collected clinical data of the patients. tlw and ch designed the study and revised the manuscript. tnj, chh, and sjk assisted with constructing the analytic data file. dh and cml were responsible for statistical analysis. tlw takes responsibility for the paper as a whole. screening tool for the general population. the sensitivity and specificity of the scoring may be expected to be different in other patient populations with a different mixture of comorbidities or in the setting of outbreaks of other respiratory diseases, such as influenza. there has been a major global outbreak of sars. [1] [2] [3] [4] 10, 11 although confirmatory tests such as polymerase chain reaction and measurements of coronavirus antibody have been conducted in many laboratories, 9 they still cannot provide instant and correct information for clinicians initially. the who criteria may help screen suspected and probable cases, 8 but the low specificity may indicate the lack of cost-effectiveness in an endemic area. this study demonstrated the scoring system for sars as a simple and reliable clinical decision rule to help emergency clinicians detect patients with sars quickly and cost-efficiently. during the endemic times, there was usually chaos when the isolated facilities were not sufficient and the who criteria could not discriminate definitely between victims of sars and non-sars febrile patients. our report revealed that the who criteria for probable cases had only 44% specificity for patients who met the who criteria for suspected cases. this means there ought to be at least 2.3-fold reservation of isolated facilities and medical costs if all probable cases were admitted to hospitals. the average expenditure for each case to complete the workup for the scoring system for sars was approximately us$200 in our series, whereas the medical cost during admission was us$1,100 per day. although the total expenditure of completing the scoring system for sars for our 232 validating patients was approximately us$46,400, the method saved at least 72 unnecessary admissions or us$1,108,800 (if the average duration of admission was 14 days). in addition, the rapid screening tests for common viruses and legionella and pneumococcal urinary antigen testing in our protocol were mainly for confirmation of the final diagnosis to establish the validity of the scoring system for sars. our primary objective was to develop a scoring system that used only common laboratory and radiographic examinations available at most eds instead of other rapid tests. in other words, if no rapid screening tests were available, the scoring system still worked well. the sensitivity of the who criteria for suspected cases was 26%, whereas that of the who criteria for probable cases was 97%. the sensitivity of the latter revision received august 6 a cluster of cases of severe respiratory syndrome in hong kong a major outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in hong kong identification of severe acute respiratory syndrome in canada update: outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome: worldwide coronavirus as a possible cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome a novel coronavirus associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome identification of a novel coronavirus in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome world health organization. case definitions for surveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars): laboratory diagnostic tests clinical features and short-term outcomes of 144 patients with sars in the greater toronto area world health organization. cumulative number of reported probable cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) key: cord-028866-ci3ypbq8 authors: reindl, andrea; meier, hans; niemetz, michael title: scalable, decentralized battery management system based on self-organizing nodes date: 2020-06-12 journal: architecture of computing systems arcs 2020 doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-52794-5_13 sha: doc_id: 28866 cord_uid: ci3ypbq8 due to the transition to renewable energy sources and the increasing share of electric vehicles and smart grids, batteries are gaining in importance. battery management systems (bmss) are required for optimal, reliable operation. in this paper, existing bms topologies are presented and evaluated in terms of reliability, scalability and flexibility. the decentralisation of bmss and associated advantages are shown. a scalable, reconfigurable bms based on a distributed architecture of self-organized, locally controlled nodes is proposed. for distributed system control, producers, batteries and consumers each are equipped with a local microcontroller based control unit, which monitors and controls the local parameters with its own computing and communication resources. features, advantages and challenges to overcome of the proposed approach are described. with an increasing share of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, batteries are one of the most utilized energy storage media [1] . battery use is essential for maintaining the energy balance and for improving the quality as well as the reliability of power supply in renewable energy systems [2] . a critical challenge facing the widespread adoption of battery technology is to ensure uninterrupted, fail-safe power supply and safe, optimal battery operation to extend battery life. battery management systems (bmss) are used for these purposes and provide the interfaces between energy producers, consumers and batteries ( fig. 1 ). they administer system control and management with regard to energy storage and transmission. main functions of the bms include charge and discharge control, balancing, input/output current and voltage monitoring, temperature control, battery protection, fault diagnosis and evaluation [3] . for this purpose, the following functional requirements are relevant for a bms: -current, voltage and temperature measurement -state of charge (soc) and state of health (soh) determination -communication -robustness against electromagnetic interference (emi) -redundancy of the system in terms of functional safety -electrical isolation of the functional systems -balancing [4, 5] besides the bms unit, which includes data acquisition, status monitoring and control, the topology of the bms is crucial for large-scale battery management. the topology covers the electrical connection of the individual batteries or battery cells, the control structure and the communication architecture. it directly influences costs, ease of installation, maintenance, measurement accuracy and above all the reliability of the system. this paper first describes existing bms topologies together with relevant literature and outlines their benefits and limitations. the proposed classification divides the bms topologies into -centralized, -modularized, -distributed and -decentralized. the identified trend towards the decentralization of bmss is shown: centralized bmss with a single control unit [6] [7] [8] are increasingly replaced by a decentralized management, whereby sensor, control and computing resources are distributed [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] . the characteristics of the control strategies are therefore analysed and compared. an approach for a fully decentralized, distributed bms based on autonomous, locally operating units is proposed. the characteristics and advantages of the proposed approach are described. the requirements, particularly in terms of system control and management, are analysed and challenges to be overcome are identified. the aim is to provide a holistic overview of the features of the proposed bms and the resulting system requirements. in centralized bmss, the entire functionality is integrated into a single module, which is connected to the batteries or battery cells via several wires (see fig. 2 ) [14] . the centralized bms provides single cell voltage, string current and temperature measurement. a centralized bms is described in [15] based on a single chip. the protective function is divided into two stages. the first stage monitors voltage, current, temperature and coordinates the balancing function. another approach for a centralized bms is provided in [16] . advantages of centralized bms include costeffectiveness as well as maintenance and repair. if only a single integrated circuit is used, costs are reduced and errors are easily detected. another advantage is the accuracy, as centralized bms use the same offsets for all cells. the clearly defined coordination structure provides effective system control. disadvantages include the large number of long cable connections, which considerably increase the risk of short circuits. furthermore, inputs can easily be mixed up and incorrectly connected and connections can become loose, which increases the susceptibility to errors. another disadvantage is the lack of scalability and flexibility of the system architecture. in central master-slave bmss, the maximum number of batteries is strictly predefined. during system development, the number of actively used batteries is fixed and can usually only be changed afterwards by changing the wiring. adding additional cells is not possible at all if all input connectors are used or vice versa, some inputs might remain unused. in addition, only predefined, mostly single battery technologies are supported and combinations thereof are not feasible. furthermore, the master controller is a single point of failure. the entire system control depends on the error-free function of the master controller. in case of failure or malfunction of the master controller, the entire system operation is endangered. this is a significant disadvantage, especially with regard to a reliable, uninterruptible power supply. modularized bmss are characterized by several identical modules, which are connected to the individual batteries or battery cells via cables, similar to centralized bms (fig. 3) . the bms modules provide data acquisition (single cell voltage, current, temperature) and communication interfaces to the other bms modules. often one of the modules is assigned to the role of master or a separate module serves as master. the master module controls the entire battery pack and communicates with the rest of the system, while the other modules merely record the measured data and transmit it to the master. a modularized bms with the aim of improving the performance of bms to provide a safe, reliable and cost-efficient solution for smart grids and electric vehicles is proposed in [3] . the modularized bms for electric vehicles presented in [17] focuses on effective single cell monitoring and balancing for a large number of battery cells with comparatively small size and complexity. an advantage of modularized bmss is the improved manageability. the modules are placed close to the batteries, which avoids long cables. to improve functional safety, the function of the bms can be easily replicated on the individual modules. the scalability is also increased compared to centralized bmss. if the battery pack is extended by further cells, another bms module is simply appended. the number of inputs of the bms modules is still fixed and under certain circumstances, inputs may remain unused. in addition, the costs of modularized bmss are higher. compared to centralized bms, the failure of one bms module does not endanger the entire battery operation. defective battery cells or batteries are simply removed from the system, reducing capacity but maintaining operation. in distributed bmss, each cell string or cell is equipped with its own bms module. the cell bms modules provide measurement of operating parameters, balancing and communication. the bms controller handles the calculation and communication (fig. 4) . a distributed bms divided into a master and several battery modules for real-time monitoring and reporting of battery operating conditions is proposed in [18] . this approach combines central control management and distributed data collection. in order to reduce costs and time-to-market and to increase flexibility, scalability and adaptability, a distributed bms with smart battery cell monitoring is presented in [19] . the smart battery cell monitoring consists of electronics for monitoring and a data transmission interface for bidirectional communication with the superordinate bms. the bms functions as the master and controls energy storage at system level. the distributed bms simultaneously offers a high level of reliability and robustness as well as a cost-efficient development process, allowing a significant reduction in the cost of the final battery pack. the advantages of distributed bmss compared to centralized and modularized topologies are scalability and flexibility. no maximum number of inputs is defined and cells can be added or removed even after installation. this allows easy hardware integration for homogeneous modules. scaling the battery pack to the size required for different applications does not require any changes to the hardware or software of the modules-only additional battery cell modules have to be assembled or removed. furthermore, the single point of failure of centralized approaches is avoided. local control of each cell additionally increases safety. sensor information only needs to be processed for the local cell and mandatory actions can be triggered immediately. a further advantage is the high measurement accuracy, which is achieved by the specialization of the battery cell module. furthermore, shorter connecting wires enable more accurate voltage measurement and better interference immunity. maintenance or replacement of defective parts is facilitated by the modular, distributed architecture. disadvantageous are the increased costs for the bms, as a separate bms module is required for each cell and for most applications also an additional master module. the decentralization of bmss is a possible solution to overcome the disadvantages of central control structures. decentralized bmss consist of several equal units, which provide the entire functionality locally and autonomously. each of the individual bms units is able to operate independently of the remaining ones. communication lines between the units enable information exchange and task coordination between the units. they are used in several decentralized bms (fig. 5) . while this architecture offers advantages like scalability, minimal integration effort and increased functional safety, the development requires new methods. decentralized bmss are further subdivided into communication-less, wireless and wired communication based topologies. a decentralized bms without communication requirements is proposed in [20] . the smart cells work locally and autonomously, which increases safety and reliability. a decentralized bms based on the droop control for a series connection of battery cells is presented in [21] . droop control is applied to ensure power sharing among connected components. droop characteristics are used for the power distribution, which correspond to v-i characteristics in voltage droop control. they determine the required output/input current according to the actual voltage deviation. physically the droop control behaves like an output resistance. therefore the droop characteristic is also called virtual resistance. [22, 23] droop control offers high reliability due to the decentralized architecture and the communication-less control. a drawback of the droop-based control is the imprecise control [24] . with the consideration of line resistance in a droop-controlled system, the output voltage of each converter cannot be exactly the same. therefore, the output current sharing accuracy is affected. in addition, the voltage deviation increases with the load due to the droop characteristic [25] . due to the possibility of cable breaks in wired communication systems like can or i 2 c, bms approaches based on wireless communication are developed [26] . as a possible solution, [26] proposes a distributed and decentralized wireless bms based on an internet of things (iot) network. in [27] , a fully decentralized bms is proposed, whereby the entire bms functionality is integrated into the cell management units. one cell management unit per cell is used, providing local sensing and management capabilities autonomously and system-level functionality by coordination via communication. a can bus is used for wired communication, which enables broadcast communication between the cells. the major advantage of decentralized bmss is the absence of a central control unit, on which error-free function the entire operation depends. furthermore, the scalability and flexibility are advantageous. the number of inputs is not fixed and can be extended/reduced even after installation. a challenging feature is the distributed system control based on the equal, parallel-operating and autonomous nodes. in addition, it has to be ensured that the single point of failure is not only shifted but eliminated. for a reliable system, a holistic approach is required. the decentralization of the bms topology results in functionality distributed to several individual units. the functional units are closer to the battery/battery cell and more elaborately equipped to work independently. operation is becoming increasingly independent of a central coordination unit and the failure of individual functional units has a minor impact on the system function. as a result, the reliability of the system is improved. the scalability increases with rising decentralisation. the number of batteries/battery cells is not limited by pre-defined inputs but is variable even after the initial layout. individual batteries/battery cells can be added or removed. a variable number of batteries results in enhanced flexibility. the bms is adaptable to the requirements of a wide range of applications. table 1 summarizes the evaluation of existing bms topologies in terms of reliability, scalability and flexibility. compliance with the criteria is evaluated, where ++ means full compliance, + partial compliance, 0 neutral, -partially not satisfied, and --not satisfied at all. the proposed system is fully decentralized and consists, in contrary to the proposed approaches, of three types of modules: renewable energy producers, batteries and consumers. all components are connected together with a common power line and at least one global communication bus (fig. 6 ). for distributed, autonomous control, each battery, producer and consumer is equipped with its own local control unit (lcu). the lcu includes: -current, voltage and temperature measurement to record actual operating parameters, -a communication interface for data exchange between the components. -a microcontroller for calculation, data management and evaluation, -a dc/dc converter with target current and target voltage values which are adjustable during operation, and -a relay which is opened in case of failures to avoid safety critical voltage levels or for maintenance purposes. producers and consumers use the lcu to provide their operating parameters for load/generation forecasts and for voltage control. batteries provide the ability to absorb excess power or deliver missing power and thus are able to control the system. therefore, additional algorithms for system control and leader election are implemented on the lcus of the batteries. the implemented software for system control manages both the actual operating data such as current, voltage and temperature and the system states resulting from previous measurements. the soc and the soh are determined. in addition, the battery fitness (bf) is defined. the bf is a numerical value based primarily on soc, soh, number of charge cycles, time of last charge/discharge, the system-wide normalized capacity and the actual operating parameters. taking into account the optimum operating range of the respective battery technology, the battery condition is evaluated. the criteria, e.g. soc or temperature, are weighted. the criteria weighting can be adjusted depending on the battery technology and the system status. the adjustment of the weighting provides the basis for system optimization according to various criteria such as cost minimization, maximum safety or availability. the bf enables a system-wide definite evaluation of different battery technologies. in turn, this enables the combination of different battery technologies in a single system. the combination of different battery technologies offers advantages including optimization of the system control, extending battery life and increasing system reliability [28] . additionally, it offers a second life application to a wide range of batteries [29, 30] . the bf is also a decision criterion for the leader election. the participating nodes work autonomously and locally and control the system in a collaborative manner. highly parallel computer systems exist for solving complicated mathematical problems. in contrast, the challenging task in the context of the proposed approach is to structure, intelligently equip and network the nodes to such an extent that the overall system and its control interact harmoniously. the lcus are interacting in the physical domain in their control task while communication latency for negotiations is high compared to the control requirements. in addition, in reality the nodes do not work perfectly synchronized but asynchronously [31] . therefore, the development of a system control consisting of decentralized, autonomous, distributed, asynchronous nodes is a non-trivial, challenging task. the target of the decentralized control structure is to make the system independent of the error-free function of a component. this can be achieved if the role of the central control unit is not permanently assigned to a single component. therefore, instead of the decentralized system control being distributed to all nodes, the approach of the system control coordinated by a temporary master which gets reassigned on a regular basis was chosen. one lcu of the batteries is chosen as the temporary central control unit applying a leader election algorithm. the temporary central control unit determines the required charge/discharge power of the remaining battery nodes, taking into account their bf. in case of failure, malfunction or changes in control capability, one of the battery nodes is selected as the new central control unit. as a result, the single point of failure of existing centralised approaches is avoided. communication between the peer nodes is the key to the autonomous, local control of the decentralized bms. for autonomous decision making and system control, the nodes communicate their operating parameters and work on a system-wide consistent database. a suitable communication methodology is required to enable fast and energy-efficient communication between the nodes. furthermore, a robust communication architecture is required to withstand the harsh environments of e.g. automotive applications. in addition, establishing a secure communication protocol between the individual nodes is essential for the safe operation of the bms. therefore a well-proven, robust, noise-free, fast and reliable communication technology is required. to achieve a minimum of integration effort, an architecture with minimal wiring harness is required for the distributed topology. a bus-based communication architecture achieves higher bandwidth and enables broadcast communication between the nodes, which is advantageous for the leader election and system control. controller area network (can) is a robust bus-based broadcast communication technology. it is particularly suitable for applications with a small amount of information to be exchanged. furthermore, can is a message-based network and each node is equipped with a filtering mechanism that filters messages based on their identifiers. thus, only messages relevant to the node are considered. due to its characteristics can is chosen as communication technology for the decentralized bms. for first implementations a communication based on a single can bus is used. for future developments dual can, can in combination with optical data transmission via polymer optical fiber (pof) and can combined with ethernet are conceivable approaches providing diverse redundancy to increase system reliability and availability. the decentralized bms is able to support active balancing. on the one hand, weaker batteries are protected by taking the bf and thus also the soc into account when setting the target value for individual energy delivery. in addition, batteries with higher soc are set to higher target currents during discharge while those with lower soc absorb higher charging currents. on the other hand, the controllable relays allow individual batteries to be disconnected from the power line. an additional power line between the batteries could additionally enable effective, active balancing by connecting the batteries to be balanced (fig. 7) . this architecture enables one-to-one, one-to-many and manyto-many balancing at a voltage level controlled by the dc/dc converter [32] . taking into account the bf, the system-wide standardised nominal capacity and the soc, the more powerful batteries supply the weaker ones. the number of inputs and thus of participants is not fixed in the proposed decentralized bms. a minimum of two batteries is recommended for a reliable supply. adding and removing nodes is possible after installation and during operation. both hardware and software are designed for effective integration [33] . the variable number of participants, which can be adjusted and changed during operation, allows the system to be adapted to requirements changing over its lifetime. optimizations in terms of e.g. cost efficiency, safety or maximum service life can be implemented or changed. the reconfigurable architecture increases reliability, performance and flexibility of the proposed bms [34] . the variable number of participants and the possibility to use and combine different battery technologies increases the flexibility of the system. existing fig. 7 . additional lines and individually controllable relays enable one-to-one, one-tomany and many-to-many active balancing approaches tend to specialize in a single battery technology [35, 36] . in order to improve the performance and energy density, new battery technologies are constantly being developed [37] [38] [39] . the bms is flexible and effective in adapting to changing conditions for optimal and safe battery operation. the software is effectively expandable and software updates during operation support the effective integration and potentially necessary software adjustments supporting new battery technologies [40] . the flexible, scalable, reconfigurable architecture opens up various fields of application including uninterruptible power supply, electric vehicles, (islanded) dc microgrids, grid support for peak load shaving or load management. the applications result in different requirements for the bms. for electric vehicles, for instance, high availability, safety and energy density with minimum size and weight are required. for islanded micro grids, the relevant criteria include effective service lifetime, cost efficiency, reliability and resistance to environmental effects. in addition, various battery technologies and combinations thereof are supported. the combination of different battery technologies improves the system control as well as the battery life of various applications [41] . furthermore, second life and second use applications are possible for a large number of batteries [30] . in this paper, existing bms topologies were presented and discussed in terms of scalability, flexibility and reliability (cf. table 1) . a decentralized, distributed bms based on self-organized and locally operating nodes was proposed. the system control is distributed among the lcus, which record operating parameters and provide their own computing and communication capacities. possible approaches for the coordination of a control system based on a manymicrocomputer system were suggested. communication requirements were analysed and suitable technologies 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battery management optimization of an off-grid hybrid power supply system based on battery aging models for different battery technologies planning and operation of isolated microgrids based on repurposed electric vehicle batteries sustainable business model archetypes for the electric vehicle battery second use industry: towards a conceptual framework a formal architecture pattern for real-time distributed systems distributed reconfigurable battery system management architectures software framework for the simulation of a decentralized battery management system consisting of intelligent battery cells comparative analysis of reconfiguration assisted management of battery storage systems annual conference of the ieee industrial electronics society battery management system for li-ion battery functional safety analysis and design of bms for lithium-ion battery energy storage system recent progress in rechargeable sodium-ion batteries: toward highpower applications advanced li-sexsy battery system: electrodes and electrolytes. elsevier aqueous organic and redox-mediated redox flow batteries: a review software update of a decentralized, intelligent battery management system based on multi-microcomputers energy storage technologies and real life applications -a state of the art review the authors thank n. balbierer and m. farmbauer for helpful discussions and t. singer for developing a test environment to validate dc/dc converters. key: cord-326210-216atclj authors: sturmberg, joachim p.; martin, carmel m. title: covid‐19 – how a pandemic reveals that everything is connected to everything else date: 2020-07-06 journal: j eval clin pract doi: 10.1111/jep.13419 sha: doc_id: 326210 cord_uid: 216atclj nan entrained ways of thinking and acting. in our view, it is a classic example that demonstrates how suddenly changing dynamics can destabilize a system and tip it into an unstable state. covid-19-rather than something else-turned out to be what we colloquially call the last straw that broke the camel's back or, put in system dynamics terms, what pushed our societal systems over a tipping point. when a system suddenly tips over, the linkages between most of its agents break, and a chaotic situation ensues. chaotic states entail a high degree of uncertainty, a state in which previously proven interventions no longer maintain the status quo. the uncertainties triggered by covid19 have not only shown the fragility of health and national systems but also highlighted the intrinsic and tacit dynamics underpinning them. most notable are the markedly different responses at the policy and community level. china drastically clamped down on all societal activities and rapidly built large new hospitals to deal with those fallen ill. iceland rapidly tested every potential case. sweden implemented limited social distancing measures. italy hospitalized many mild cases in an environment of limited hospital resources, and the united states, for several weeks, denied that there is a significant problem. each of these approaches has its own dynamics affecting individuals, communities, health systems, the economy, and the nation as a whole-new patterns emerge that become understandable with increasing knowledge (figure 1 ). however, the long-term outcomes and effects on the system as a whole will only become evident over the next months and years. 2 cass contain many different agents that interact in non-linear dynamic ways. they are open systems that constantly interact with their environment. within given constraints, the self-organizing properties of a cas makes it resilient to most perturbations to any of its constituent parts. nevertheless, a cas may become unexpectedly unstable triggered by a small-often unforeseen/unforeseeableevent. the emerging dynamics then shift the system to a new-stable or unstable-state, where the relationships and the interactions between the systems' agents have permanently changed within the context of a different set of constraints. 3 when system perturbations result in unexpected outcomes, we become aware of the ever-present uncertainties in our lives. these experiences easily result in over-exaggerated fear, which in turn results in ad hoc responses that invariably perpetuate and/or exacerbate the underlying system dysfunctions. in general, we are not good at seeing and comprehending the complexities in issues, and we have great difficulties in managing their underlying dynamics into the future. the human brain has not evolved to keep all components of a problem in mind and to appreciate their changing dynamics more than two or three steps ahead. 4 at the physiological level, the experiences of failing to manage a complex problem creates cognitive dissonance and emotional distress-we experience anxiety and physical symptoms such as palpitations, sweating, and tremors. having to solve problems with high levels of unknowns often results in interventions that are ad hoc focussed on what appears to be the most obvious without considering the wider consequences. dörner's studies 4 in the 1980s demonstrated how people of all walks of life handle unexpected contextual problems. most of us succumb to the logic of failure; we over-respond and, when realizing the consequences, promptly react with an over-response in the opposite direction and so forth. few among us use the approach of first closely analysing the problem, second responding by introducing small interventions, and finally taking time to observe what happens. in dynamic systems, the true effects of an action are only evident after a time delay. one has to observe and evaluate a cas' feedback to guide responses; invariably infrequent small tweaks-rather than rapid and dramatic actions-achieve a stabilization of the situation and ultimately provide the necessary space for a (re)solution to emerge. covid-19 is a wicked problem 1 -there are many known unknowns, unknown knowns, and unknown unknowns. we yet do not know enough about the virus (but we are painfully learning)-the true mode and speed of infectivity, its population dynamics, and treatment; we do not know enough about the risk to the population as a whole and on any subpopulation-age groups, behavioural risk takers, and those with pre-existing morbidities; we did not have ready-to-go pandemic such problems are known as vuca problems-they entail volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. resolving such problems requires vuca leadership-vision, understanding, clarity, and agility. 5 vuca problems place health and political leaders in a difficult position as any decision will have difficult-to-foresee consequences. for example, imposing community-wide (self-) isolation entails that "almost all activities stop", destroying the economy and resulting in high unemployment, poverty, and increasing disease burden, while implementing strategies to slow down the spread of infection will not guarantee that we will not overwhelm health systems or stabilize the pandemic. as all parts of a cas at every level of organization are connected to everything else, a change in any part of the system has reverberations across the system as a whole. two processes control the dynamics of a cas-top-down causation transfers information from higher system levels to lower ones, which constrains the work that lower system levels can do, that is, it limits the system's bottom-up emergent possibilities. 6 if top-down constraints are too tight, they can bring the system to a standstill. system stability also depends on the law of requisite variety, meaning that a system must have a sufficient repertoire of responses (capacity for self-organization) that is at least as nuanced (and numerous) as the problems arising within its environment. 7 if the possible ways of responding are fewer than what is demanded from the system, it will fail in its entirety. both these constraints feature in the covid-19 crisis. figure 2 brings these complexities and interdependencies into a single view. it demonstrates the top-down causation in cas and particularly emphasizes to policy-makers the importance not to limit system constraints f i g u r e 1 emergent patterns resulting from the system dynamics triggered by covid-19. while we as yet have no clear understanding of the mechanisms of covid-19 on people, some common features emerged for those developing severe disease and high fatality outcomes. moderate severe disease may be associated with increasing age and potential, otherwise innocent, genetic factors. as the development of immunity to sars-cov-2 is uncertain, previously infected people may continue to spread the disease and/or remain susceptible to reinfection f i g u r e 2 a complex adaptive system appreciation of the covid-19 crisis. the virus triggered unexpected and competing challenges at the policy level with direct and indirect effects on public health policy, the political economy, and individuals (the red tension arrows). each of these domains has its own circular feedback loops-all link back to the policy level. ongoing research into the disease, its treatment, and prevention potentially provides "external input" into the systems, which may modify doctors' disease management and alter patients' health outcomes. as described elsewhere, 8 individual health arises at the interface between the environmental and biological domains and is-at times-supported by health care interventions. the detrimental effects of the covid-19 pandemic on the economy, besides that of the disease fears, increases the dysregulation of the physiological stress responses that, in turn, result in the dysregulation of upstream metabolic pathways, which have longterm health consequences far beyond the direct effects of the pandemic to such a degree that the agents at other levels cannot do the work that needs to be done. it also points to the lack of requisite variety at multiple levels, which ultimately limit the system's options to self-organize back to its prior stable state. these deficiencies can be identified at all three key system levels-policy, service delivery, and biology. while this representation is obviously a simplification, it is useful as it helps to maintain the all-important focus on the system as a whole. 9 all systems require a central focus-for a health system, it ought to be the person. 10 health ultimately emerges from hierarchical network interactions between the external environment and internal physiology. 8 pandemic planning should provide ready-to-go policy, principles and highlevel strategic plans that provide an epidemiology informed framework to guide population-based actions, allow health professionals to locally adapt overarching policy decisions, and ensure required resources are in place. in return, health professionals need to have systems to reliably provide accurate data about the spread of the disease, disease burden, resource utilization, and staffing needs to inform policy decision makers. these data must be contextual-they always need to have a meaningful denominator, such as whole/affected population size or socio-economic/age demography, and acknowledge cluster sizes and rates of spread in different environments to enable meaningful comparisons and aid informed decision making. 12 most importantly, all observations must be communicated in a transparent fashion to ensure maximum adherence to guidelines and directives aimed to achieve pandemic control. covid-19 creates many biomedical research challenges addressing genomic, cell, organ, and whole-of-person level questions. an understanding of the virus and its disease mechanisms is necessary to provide clinicians with the best evidence-informed treatment options. 13 at the same time, these basic understandings are the necessary stepping stones to develop disease-specific drugs to cure the disease, as well as a vaccine to stop the pandemic and prevent future recurrences. the uncertainties created by covid-19 require analysis that provides the deep understanding needed to formulate and implement necessary interventions. the cynefin framework 14 however, certain responses can legitimately operate in known and knowable domains based on context. 15 understanding the multifaceted dynamics of the covid-19 pandemic requires interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches. 16 as outlined above, there are many contradictions and tensions within the policy community; they are unavoidable, but people must ultimately make sense of the multiple dynamics in and between the different biological, social, environmental, and politico-economic domains. 17 sensemaking (or sense-making) is the process of people giving meaning to their experiences. at the collective level, a transdisciplinary process involving, among others, mathematics, biology, philosophy, sociology and cognitive science, communication studies, and complexity sciences offers the best way to understand the covid-19 pandemic. while these discourses cannot deliver certainty, 18 they offer the best change to allow the emergence of best adapted solutions that can ultimately resolve such problems. 16 one approach to reaching best adapted solutions involves mapping out the problem to visualize its agents and their interdependencies. mapping is the basis for multi-stakeholder modelling of a problem; it allows the testing out of many different possible interventions and the comparison of their potential outcomes on the system as a whole. 19 however, modelling is not a panacea. as rosen pointed out, model outputs only reflect an anticipation of a future state of a system. 20 models are a mental representation of reality; they are not reality itself. 9 models are never entirely valid but are useful if they can "recreate" a reasonably accurate "current state" of the system based on available in time, real-world feedback will provide more complete data about the dynamic behaviours of the pandemic, which will result in refined models that better anticipate the future-desirable or undesirableoutcomes. well-designed contextual models can provide fairly accurate projections of the to-be-expected real-world outcomes of the pandemic on the health system, social activities, and the economy. however, non-modelled interactions can have significant unintended consequences, for example, the focus on surge capacity of icu for covid-19 patients can reduce resources for other services and lead to greater morbidity and mortality of aged care residents or those affected by multiple morbidities. f i g u r e 3 -sensemaking dynamics of complex adaptive problems (adapted from martin 15 ). this cynefin-based model outlines the issues arising from the covid-19 pandemic in relation to different knowledge domains. it provides a starting point to design an anticipatory system model. each knowledge domain has its own dynamics and strength and weaknesses in understanding the pandemic as a whole. note the nature of the strategies required to move from one domain to its neighbouring ones. this understanding is crucial as it has major implications for decision makers (for more detail on the cynefin model, see kurtz and snowden 14 ) social determinants-poverty, social isolation and support, housing, food security. what can we take away at this stage of the journey? 23 dynamic interactions always keep social systems in a state close to instability (or dys-equilibrium). if political and economic constraints on our societal system are too tight and lack the necessary redundancies, the system cannot adapt to the disruptions of a pandemic like covid-19. 24 health systems, and particularly their public health divisions, have been constrained by the neglect of pandemic risk planning and inadequate resourcing. health services are constrained by a lack of surge capacity. 25 the lack of consistent population health surveillance and health-related information systems minimize the ability to collect and utilize vital clinical and public health data in their proper context. 12 inconsistent or non-transparent communication hinders the collective deliberation needed to make decisions in an environment of uncertainty and competing demands. 26 the longterm consequences of the hit-and-miss efforts in this crisis often remain unrecognized and thereby perpetuate socio-economic disadvantage and health inequities for future generations. 27 we all face the challenge of adapting to the inevitable "new norms" of the emergent new societal systems characterized by different structures and dynamics. the "new norms" should emerge from our shared values and our humanitarian ability of sensemaking, which will take us forward on this quest. what we-collectively-need is a better and more widespread understanding of the sciences of cas-they are wholes that cannot be understood by the nature and behaviour of its constituent parts; they are self-organizing and emergent in light of challenges and changing contexts. we also need to acknowledge and mediate our "natural tendencies" to respond to unexpected complex problems in ad hoc-knee-jerk-ways. these understandings enable different approaches to manage the chaos of this (and other) unexpected crises. in addition, it, one, supports a far more nuanced communication approach to convey the scientific insights into the virus and its dynamics and, two, dampens the heightened anxieties associated with the uncertainties inherent in the unknowns of this continually emerging pandemic. dilemmas in a general theory of planning policy sciences how the pandemic will end handbook of systems and complexity in health the logic of failure: recognizing and avoiding error in complex situations chapel hill, nc: unc kenan-flagler business school top-down causation and emergence: some comments on mechanisms requisite variety and its implications for the control of complex systems health and diseaseemergent states resulting from adaptive social and biological network interactions empirical model building and response surfaces health system redesign. how to make health care person-centered, equitable, and sustainable understanding health care delivery as a complex system coronavirus disease 2019: the harms of exaggerated information and non-evidence-based measures pharmacologic treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19): a review the new dynamics of strategy: sense-making in a complex and complicated world distortions, belief and sense making in complex adaptive systems for health making sense of polarities in health organizations for policy and leadership unclear? accurate . . . inaccurate? objective . . . subjective? research . . . practice? why polarities impede the research, practice and design of information systems and how sense-making methodology attempts to bridge the gaps. part 1 the illusion of certainty -a deluded perception handbook of systems and complexity in health transcript of a videotaped interview leadership without easy answers knowledge translation in healthcare -towards understanding its true complexities; comment on "using complexity and network concepts to inform healthcare knowledge translation perturbing ongoing conversations about systems and complexity in health services and systems covid-19: time for paradigm shift in the nexus between local, national and global health health care reform -the need for a complex adaptive systems approach complexity perspectives on clinical decision making in an intensive care unit the health gap: doctors and the social determinants of health key: cord-309379-ml75kvl5 authors: kanger, laur; sillak, silver title: emergence, consolidation and dominance of meta-regimes: exploring the historical evolution of mass production (1765–1972) from the deep transitions perspective date: 2020-09-09 journal: technol soc doi: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2020.101393 sha: doc_id: 309379 cord_uid: ml75kvl5 grand environmental and societal challenges have drawn increasing attention to system innovation and socio-technical transitions. a recent deep transitions framework has provided a comprehensive theory of the co-evolutionary patterns of multiple socio-technical systems over the last 250 years. however, so far the framework has not been subjected to systematic empirical exploration. in this paper we address this gap by exploring the co-evolutionary model linking niche-level dynamics, transitions in single systems and ‘great surges of development’, as conceptualized by schot and kanger (2018) [1]. for this purpose, we conduct a case study on the historical evolution of mass production in the transatlantic region from 1765 to 1972. instead of focusing on dominant technologies or common practices the development of mass production is understood as the emergence of a meta-regime, i.e. a set of mutually aligned rules guiding production activities in multiple socio-technical systems. the results broadly confirm the overall model but also enable to extend the deep transitions framework by uncovering new mechanisms and patterns in the variation, diffusion and contestation of meta-regimes. the world is confronted by a socio-ecological emergency brought on by climate change, resource depletion and loss of biodiversity. solving these crises requires rapid and deep decarbonization of a broad range of socio-technical systems including energy, housing, food, water and mobility. these challenges have drawn increasing attention to system innovation in the sustainability transitions field, including co-evolutionary dynamics extending beyond single systems. although so far the stream of studies on multi-regime interaction has remained fairly small [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] , lately the importance of the topic has been increasingly recognized in the sustainability transitions research network agenda as well as the debates around it. the need for 'zooming out' has been advocated [7, p. 6] in order to shift "emphasis away from within system dynamics that have received considerable attention to the interconnected and multi-scalar qualities of socio-technical systems that are less well understood" [8, p. 4] . a recently developed deep transitions (dt) framework [1, 9] attempts to go beyond the analytical limitations of studies focused on single systems. synthesizing insights from sustainability transitions studies, long wave theory and industrialization literature dt theorizes how interactions between socio-technical systems produce 40-60 year long 'great surges of development' [10] and how successive surges, in turn, accumulate into a set of principles driving every industrial societyan industrial modernity. the authors of the dt framework argue that the co-evolution of single systems, interconnected systems and industrial modernity -the first deep transition -has created a fundamentally unsustainable trajectory of environmental degradation while not being able to solve recurring problems of social inequality. altering the situation requires a shift of comparable magnitude -the second deep transition. dt aspires to offer a comprehensive conceptual framework of the co-evolutionary patterns of multiple socio-technical systems over the last 250 years. however, beyond the provision of selected illustrative historical examples in the original outline, the framework has yet to be subjected to systematic empirical assessment. in this paper we address this gap by exploring the co-evolutionary model outlined in schot and kanger [1] which links niche-level dynamics, transitions in single systems and great surges of development through the emergence, consolidation and alignment of rules. for this purpose, we conduct a historical case study of the development of mass production in the transatlantic region from 1765 to 1972. the case of mass production has been chosen because of its centrality to the 4 th long wave beginning at the early 20 th century [10, 11] making it both a 'most-likely' case for the dt framework and an influential case with considerable environmental impact. our main research question is: how does the historical development of mass production correspond to the co-evolutionary patterns as proposed by the deep transitions framework? section 2 defines the central concepts of the framework -rules, meta-rules, regimes, meta-regimes -and outlines a model of the co-evolutionary dynamics of rules. section 3 describes our methodological approach. section 4 presents a stylized narrative of the historical evolution of mass production. section 5 assesses the extent to which the observed dynamics match the theoretical expectations and situates our findings in broader literature on socio-technical change. similarly to early case studies exemplifying the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions [12] [13] [14] [15] we also use our results to modify and extend the dt framework. section 6 concludes. the dt framework [1] was developed to address two gaps in existing knowledge on multi-system co-evolution. first, to theorize how niche-regime dynamics and transitions in single systems [13, 16] relate to long waves [10, 11] . second, to understand how successive long waves accumulate into major historical continuities characterizing the overall industrialization process [9] . dt focuses on rules -"humanly devised constraints that structure human action, leading to regular patterns of practice" [1, p. 1053] -as a central coordination mechanism. by being embedded in the very structure of socio-technical systems rules shape the behaviour of actors and provide systems with long-lasting directionality. rules differ in terms of their scope and degree of alignment to other rules, resulting in a four-fold classification: 1. rule is a single prescription for action present in a single system. for example, a principle 'design for modularity' has its origins in the american housing system around 1920s-1930s, where the use of modular components was seen as means to lower construction costs, reduce waste and increase efficiency [17] . 2. meta-rule is a single rule present in multiple systems. for example, russell [17] describes how metaphors such as 'architecture', 'throughput' and 'modularity' started to appear in the vocabulary of american computer engineers in the 1950s. this indicates that the 'design for modularity' rule had crossed a boundary between housing and data processing systems. 3. regime is a set of aligned rules present in a single system. for example, zuboff [18] analyses how google invented and perfected interrelated principles constituting what she calls 'surveillance capitalism'. this involved treating human experience as a free raw material, using this 'behavioural surplus' for the fabrication of prediction products and trading these predictions in behavioural futures markets [18, p. 8] . from the early 2000s this regime became paradigmatic in the communication system and was adopted by major players like microsoft or facebook. 4. meta-regime is a rule-set present in multiple systems. for example, by treating usergenerated data from self-driving vehicles as a commodity to be sold to advertisers [19, 20] the regime of surveillance capitalism might be currently expanding from the communication system to the mobility system. drawing on these concepts, schot and kanger [1] connected processes on niche-and system-level as described by the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions [13, 16] , to successive 'great surges of development' as conceptualized by carlota perez. perez [10] argues that since the late 18 th century there have been five 40-60 year surges 1 , each characterized by particular phases: 1) gestation (pre-surge period); 2) installation period (first half of the surge, lasting 20-30 years), further divided into irruption and frenzy phases; 3) turning point; 4) deployment period (second half of the surge, lasting 20-30 years), further divided into synergy and maturity phases. the model by schot and kanger [1] relates the emergence, consolidation and alignment of rules to different phases of each surge, resulting in a specific pattern: 1. a protracted gestation period is characterized by the emergence of new rules rules in separate niches, i.e. spaces governed by specific selection criteria such as military applications prioritizing performance over cost. in some niches some of these rules may be aligned to each other. in exceptional instances, exogenous macro-level 'landscape' pressures might destabilize dominant systems, opening up a window of opportunity for niches and resulting in regime-shifts, i.e. transitions in single systems [13] . 2. each surge starts with the irruption phase where emerging and incumbent rules come to compete against each other, resulting in further transitions or transition failures. early interactions between some systems might occur and some rules may turn into meta-rules as a result. overall these interactions as well as their outcomes remain ad hoc, nonstandardized and accidental in nature: at this point no lasting connections between systems are created, and thus no clear directionality in multi-system co-evolution is established. 3. at the beginning of the frenzy phase, many rules increasingly start to cross the boundaries of a single system, generating widespread enthusiasm about the prospects of emerging rules and associated technological opportunities but also major concerns about their anticipated societal impacts. partial alignment between different meta-rules starts to occur leading to the gradual emergence of structural and functional couplings between systems, e.g. different systems relying on the same infrastructure or forming input-output relations [22] . this process is further amplified by the purposeful aggregation work of transnational organizations aiming to homogenize and standardize within-and between-system practices. as a result, a clearer new directionality becomes visible, yet in this phase there will still be competing options (alternative directions of evolution) available. 4. the competition between meta-rules and their various combinations is resolved at the turning point. major crises such as wars provide an impetus for the alignment of expectations, enabling powerful actors to tilt the playing field in favour of a particular ruleset. therefore, from this point forward one can start talking about the existence of the dominant meta-regime providing directionality across many socio-technical systems. 5. during the synergy phase the dominant meta-regime acts as a selection mechanism, favouring niches compatible with its logic and rejecting non-compatible ones [23] . it continues to diffuse from one system to another, leading to the increasing take-up of its principles in various systems. because of its expansive nature the meta-regime now also starts to shape landscape structure and dynamics. 6. in the maturity phase new problems start to appear which cannot be fully resolved within the confines of the dominant meta-regime. the scene is set for yet another surge with new niches and systems becoming the main loci of radical innovation. as the former metaregime has now become part of the landscape, it continues to structure new niche-regimemeta-regime interactions. figure 1 presents a visual summary of the model. j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f as the above model focuses on developments distinctive to each phase, it implies but does not really make explicit the accumulation of phase-specific developments into long-term outcomes. an alternative way to look at the process of meta-regime building would be to separate the overall coevolutionary dynamics of rules into different sub-trends. such an analytical exercise potentially enables to observe different patterns and mechanisms related to various dimensions of meta-regime evolution that might otherwise remain unnoticed. although we recognize the difficulties with making clear-cut conceptual distinctions, we suggest that broadly speaking the co-evolutionary model of schot and kanger [1] can be seen as a result of three interacting sub-trends: 1. variation: emergence of new rules or the alignment of existing rules into rule-sets (regimes/ meta-regimes) with novel qualities. from the evolutionary perspective we expect gestation, irruption and frenzy phases to be dominated by high but gradually decreasing variety, reaching its low point during the synergy phase. this would reflect a move from radical to incremental innovation and the increasing alignment of rules leaving less possibilities for the emergence of major novelty. however, towards the end of the maturity phase we expect variety to increase again as the deepening crisis of the dominant meta-regime provides an opportunity for radical niches. 2. diffusion: imitation and selective adoption of rules and rule-sets in different systems and various countries. although we assume the process of diffusion to occur in a piecemeal manner involving various setbacks and failures, as an aggregate trend we expect the emerging meta-regime to spread to new systems and locations throughout the surge. 3. contestation: debates, conflicts and struggles around emerging rules and rule-sets concerning their application, their changing relations with existing modes of production and their broader societal effects. here the implied pattern is somewhat more complex. during irruption and frenzy phases we expect that the increasing public visibility of the emerging meta-regime and the attempts to apply it in different systems would prompt increasing societal contestation up to the turning point when large-scale conflicts are resolved. during the following phases we expect the dynamics to be reversed: low contestation during the synergy phase followed by renewed contestation during the maturity phase, reflecting a gradual shift from the dominance of the meta-regime to its crisis. these phase-specific and cross-phase trends constitute a set of expectations against which empirical data on the historical development of mass production will be assessed. this will be done in sections 5.1 and 5.2 respectively. the research is based on a single longitudinal case study design [24] , adopting a 'most-likely' case selection strategy. the literature on case selection stresses the symmetrical strengths of 'most-likely' and 'least-likely' cases for assessing the validity of an existing theory. whereas 'most-likely' cases cannot offer strong proof for a theory (as the case is expected to conform closely to theoretical propositions) they can strongly undermine it if the case does not fit the theory (because if the theory does not even explain the closest expected match it will probably perform even worse on less likely cases). conversely, 'least-likely' cases can offer strong proof for a theory (demonstrating that the theory explains even less likely cases) but they cannot strongly undermine it if the case does not fit the theory (as the case is not expected to conform strongly to theoretical propositions in the first place) [25, p. 121] . where multiple theories exist for explaining a given phenomenon, the strongest supporting evidence can be obtained by choosing a case least-likely for a given theory and mostlikely for competing theories (all of which also make different predictions about the outcome of interest). the strongest weakening evidence can be obtained by choosing a most-likely case for a given theory as well as all competing theories making similar predictions, and failing to find supporting evidence for it [25, p. 121] . arguments like this [26] [27] [28] implicitly assume a rather mature field of research characterized by considerable knowledge base (established through numerous prior case studies) and the existence of a number of competing theories for a given phenomenon. although this might be an accurate description of the authors' own disciplines (usually political science), neither assumption holds for the current framework which establishes a new phenomenon -deep transitions -through a synthesis of existing theories (multi-level perspective and techno-economic paradigms). in this way dt goes beyond mlp and tep by design and cannot be argued to offer strictly competing explanations to either of the two frameworks. this is well evidenced by geels's seminal analysis of the transformation of factory production from the mlp perspective [15] . not only is the study geographically and temporally restricted (usa, 1850 (usa, -1930 , it also focuses on the breakthrough of mass production where impacts exceeding the mobility system and emerging connections with other systems are largely excluded. the most complete long-wave account of mass production [11, pp. 257-300] , on the other hand, largely focuses on a few leading countries (primarily usa) during the 4 th wave only, neglecting the role niche-system dynamics in generating the surge. in contrast, the use of the dt framework necessitates the observation of interactions between niche, regime, metaregime and landscape dynamics over a much longer time-frame and broader geographical scope (see below). we suggest that in the context of scarce knowledge of the focal phenomenon (deep transitions) and the lack of competing theories offering alternative explanations, a 'least-likely' case would constitute a far too strong first empirical test of the framework. a similar reasoning, although not explicitly spelled out as such, seems to have been pursued in seminal works on socio-technical transitions which initially focused on transport, sanitation and production [12] [13] [14] [15] . it is very difficult to see what would have been gained if mlp had started out from a 'least-likely' case such as rock'n'roll instead [2] . therefore, in our view a 'most-likely' case constitutes the best option for a first empirical test of a nascent theory. mass production was chosen as a case for three reasons. first, as the tep framework considers mass production a central element of the 4 th surge it can be considered a 'most-likely' case for the dt framework. this means that we expect the evolution of mass production to mirror the conceptual model of schot and kanger [1] . a failure to detect a close match with the theoretical propositions, on the other hand, would cast serious doubt on the overall validity of the dt framework. second, during the past century mass production has become increasingly central to modern lifestyles in developed and developing countries, thereby exacerbating environmental problems such as pollution, waste or resource depletion [29] [30] [31] . because of its global impacts mass production constitutes an influential case the co-evolutionary dynamics of which are crucial to understand in its own right. third, practical considerations such as the availability of a broad array of secondary historical literature on the topic also played a role in the case selection. conducting indepth qualitative work with primary sources on the scale required for exploring the dt framework would have simply fallen beyond the scope of the study. the case is bounded as follows. temporally, we focus on the events between 1765 and 1972. this covers the long gestation period of mass production (1765-1907), its installation during the 4 th surge (including irruption, 1908-1919, and frenzy phases, 1920-1938), turning point (1939) (1940) (1941) (1942) (1943) (1944) (1945) as well as the deployment period (including synergy, 1946-1959, and maturity phases, 1960-1972) . geographically, we focus on the transatlantic region. this enables us to trace the varying origin and j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f circulation of rules across national boundaries, including their regional adaptations. thematically, we focus primarily on the engineering-related dimension (production organization and labour control), largely excluding the dimensions of economy, policy, everyday life and culture. while the latter choice has been largely made for feasibility concerns we also recognize the resulting limitations of our study (see below). following an established tradition in transitions studies our research employs a stylized narrative explanation based on an interpretive analysis and synthesis of a broad range of secondary historical literature. as geels and schot argue, "the strength of a narrative is that it can capture complex interactions between agency and changing contexts, time, event sequences, making moves in games, and identities" [32, p. 97] . although narrative-based approach is versatile, flexible and attentive to complexity, it has also been criticized for the subjectivity of researcher choices or difficulties with assessing the extent to which the results conform to expected patterns [33, 34] . a similar sentiment is echoed in nuvolari's assessment of freeman and louçã (2001) as both the most articulated treatment of this [long wave] approach but also highly impressionistic and descriptive [35, pp. 34, 42] . given our aim -to provide an early empirical assessment of a complex theoretical framework of broad scope -we argue that the strengths of a narrative-based approach outweigh its weaknesses. to address the shortcomings of the narrative approach we try to provide a clear assessment about the possible biases of our study (see below), to substantiate each statement on a general trend with empirical support (section 4) and to establish clear connections between empirical data and theoretical abstractions (section 5). nevertheless we readily acknowledge that ultimately our selection, presentation and interpretation of data contains a certain degree of subjectivity. data collection and analysis was conducted in four stages, involving a great degree of iteration between different steps: 1. beginning from authoritative works [36] [37] [38] and literature search from various databases we used a snowball sampling approach to assemble a corpus of secondary literature on the history of mass production. given the analytical dimensions of interest (see section 2) and the case bounding (see above) we aimed at a systematic coverage. 2. based on the literature we then constructed a genealogy of mass production, consisting of different rules, combinations of these rules (rule-sets) as well as several historical dead-ends (see figure 2 ). this stage involved interpretive work, whereby various technologies, practices and principles described in the sources were transformed into rules (see box 1). the emerging interpretations were discussed with two historians of technology with expertise in mass and specialty production to further improve the genealogy. 3. we then compiled a stylized narrative explanation of the development of the rules underlying mass production. upon detecting gaps in the narrative, additional literature search was conducted to cover the missing dimensions and to update the genealogy. 4. in the final stage, we used the pattern-matching technique [24, pp. 224-225 ] to compare the patterns that emerged from the stylized empirical narrative with the expected ones derived from theory. in doing so we assessed overlaps and deviations and, where necessary, developed further conceptual extensions. the pattern analysis was twofold. first, the phasespecific patterns of every period were matched to the six propositions (gestation, irruption, frenzy, turning point, synergy, maturity) described in subsection 2.1. the results of this exercise are presented in subsection 5.1. second, the cross-phase patterns evident throughout the periods were matched to the three overall trends (variation, diffusion, contestation) described in subsection 2.2. these results are presented in subsection 5.2. the limitations of our approach should be noted. firstly, as our study draws on works published in english the narrative might suffer from source bias. to address this issue we attempted to locate studies on different countries or studies with an international dimension [38] [39] [40] . secondly, given our focus on the engineering dimension, the narrative might somewhat overstate the prominence of usa while downplaying the contribution of different countries to the correlates of mass production in other dimensions (economy, policy, everyday life, culture), e.g. interwar era soviet experiments with centralized planning as a precursor for large-scale state intervention in the entire transatlantic region after world war ii. it appears, therefore, that conveyors and gravity slides were adopted either immediately before the assembly line experiments or resulted from the "work in motion" principle brought to life by the assembly line [36, pp. 238-239, on ford's experiments]. mass production of automobiles, as developed by henry ford in the half-dozen years before the first world war, depended on three basic principles: the standardisation of the product, the use of special-purpose equipment, and the elimination of skilled labour in direct production [41, p. 153] . "thorough elimination of wasteful practices" is the basic concept of the toyota production system. this concept is supported by the following two fundamental principles: 1. "right on time"; 2. "automation" [42, p. 87] . use hand tools for making the products the following section presents a narrative overview of the historical evolution of mass production between 1765 to 1972. in order to establish clearer connections with the theoretical framework (see section 2) the results have been divided in different phases, with each phase focusing on three trends -variation, diffusion and contestation. note, however, that because of continuous interactions (e.g. new rule-sets emerging and starting to compete with each other) the following narrative cannot always maintain as neat analytical separation of the three trends as implied by the respective titles of each sub-section. before the 20 th century flexible specialty production was a dominant mode in the entire transatlantic region. it relied on one worker performing all tasks, the use of customizable specialpurpose machinery, the imperative to compete on novelty and/or quality (rather than price), making systematic use of shop-floor worker knowledge for production improvements, and maintaining personal and informal relations inside the enterprise and between different enterprises [43] . from the 18 th century experiments in various niches started to challenge these principles. the precursors of mass production can be broken down to four broad streams: standardization, continuous movement, electrification and efficiency. the first stream began with the ideal of interchangeable components in armsmaking that emerged in the french military from 1765 and was realized with hand tools in 1790 [44] . during the first half of the 19 th century us state armouries (harpers ferry, springfield) added two important rules: using special-purpose equipment to perform one function only and placing machines in a sequence according to the work process [36, 45] . by mid-19 th century the alignment of these three principles constituted a rule-set of distinctive character, named american system of production by contemporary observers [36] . closely related to the interchangeability of components was also the emerging idea of product standardization which allowed to minimize changes in design and to avoid expensive and time-consuming retooling [38, pp. 27-28] . another stream was related to experiments with continuous movement and flow production in various applications such as flourmilling, bakeries, breweries, cigarette-making, canning, oil and chemical industries, foundries and bicycle production. other important antecedents were the disassembly lines used in meat-processing in cincinnati (from the 1860s, see figure 3 ) and chicago (from the 1880s) as well as edison's iron mining facility in ogdenburg, which was visited by henry ford [36,38, p. 26;40] . a third strand entailed the electrification of factories. electric motor was first introduced in the 1880s, first as an add-on to the central steam engine but gradually moving toward unit drive, i.e. each machine having a separate electric motor. before that the central power source largely dictated the placement of the machines and also limited the precision that could be achieved. additional bonuses of electrification included improved lighting and ventilation enabling increases in precision and working time but also better health for the workers [15,38, p. 27] . the fourth stream aimed to increase the efficiency of labour and resource use. this included a division of production into specific tasks to be carried out by a specific worker, introduction of a clear separation between engineering, management and executive roles, and replacing workers' rules of thumb with ones devised by experts. these principles were central to the thinking of frederick winslow taylor whose work experience in steelmaking gradually led him to formulate a system of 'scientific management' [47, 48] . as part of a wider efficiency movement gaining strength in industrial nations from the late 19 th century other ideas on systems management and factory organization gradually led to an idea to optimize the work process as a whole [46, 49] . similar concerns also directed attention to the need to minimize waste of resources and, where possible, reuse waste materials in the production process. the precursors of mass production originated from both europe and usa. interchangeability had a french origin but the ideas were transferred to the usa by thomas jefferson, french military experts and books. the idea to sequence machines according to the work process was developed by thomas blanchard at the us springfield armoury around the late 1810s but the idea built on the british example of wooden blockmaking from the 1790s [36, pp. 25-27, 41] . the benefits of subdivision of work into specific tasks had been famously described by adam smith in 1776 but the idea was taken to another level by taylor's scientific management more than a century later. in terms of sectoral origin there was even greater variety: armsmaking, mobility, food, energy and chemical industry all contained niches for experimenting with new principles of production. the initial barrier to the adoption of the american system of production was cost-related: achieving full interchangeability turned out to be more expensive than hand-fitting [36, pp. 48-49) . however, over the second half of the 19 th century a number of broader factors in usa started to favour increasing mechanization of production. these included a shortage of skilled labour (thereby providing incentives for investing in machinery), road and rail network enabling nation-wide markets, fast population growth coupled with rising purchasing power, the emergence and growth of large-scale corporations able to capture various economies of scale, the rise of the engineers as a new and increasingly influential social group but also the american cultural values favouring the development of a highly accelerated society [15,38, pp. 5-10;46] . during the second half of the 19 th century the american system spread in a gradual and piecemeal fashion to various industries such as private armsmaking, clockmacking, sewing machines and typewriters [36] . perhaps the most notable example of pre-fordist large-scale production was the pope manufacturing company where the automation of work on a moving assembly line, interchangeable parts across a wide variety of bicycle models and specialization of work process management in functional departments were combined for bicycle production [50] . interchangeability and standardized parts were first introduced to the automobile industry by the cadillac company in 1908 [46, p. 298 ]. since the precursors of mass production were dispersed in various niches interactions between these rules and specialty production remained fairly sporadic. enterprises relying on flexible production did occasionally employ new principles when it suited them, e.g. printing industry in new york being early adopters of electric drive systems [43, p. 129 ], but overall this did not lead to a fundamental overhaul of the mode of production itself. occasionally, new rules were explicitly contested. for example, french experiments with new modes of weapon production were terminated for political reasons at the beginning of the 19 th century [44] . another example concerns taylor's attempts to rationalize production at bethelem steel company, leading to stiffened worker resistance and culminating in his dismissal in 1901 [47, p. 195 ]. from 1908 henry ford and his team of engineers undertook a wave of experimentation to mechanize car production, turning simultaneous attention to gauging, fixtures, machine tool design, materials handling, factory layout and many other areas [36, p. 219 ]. in so doing the team made use of various principles pioneered during the gestation phase (see figure 2 and 4.1.1) but often realized them in a novel manner. 'move work to worker' rule is a good example: whereas the 19 th century bicycle industry had used runners to deliver parts to stationary machinists ford's engineers developed a moving assembly line for the same purpose; whereas meat-processing had used a sequential approach to disassemble the corpse, ford reversed the process. the success of ford motor company also exposed a crucial difference between 'fordism' and 'taylorism'. although both approaches offered solutions for increasing the volume of production and were seen by contemporary observers as similar and complementary, taylor focused on task optimization while ford directed his attention to the work process as a whole. the supremacy of the latter approach was clearly demonstrated early on: in 1914 ford's production exceeded the 'taylorist' packard factory by 30 times [38, p. 250 ]. despite taylor's search for 'one best way' turning out to be a historical dead end as a rule-set for production organization, his legacy proved to be much more enduring for labour management [48, 53] . . wwi also provided a stimulus to extend the new regime to the defence system, e.g. citroën using mass production techniques to produce artillery shells (ibid.). sending men and horses to the front facilitated the mechanization of agriculture, reflected in the introduction of the fordson tractor in 1917. however, not all attempts to apply mass production were successful, e.g. ford's failure to deliver submarine patrol boats as quickly as anticipated [55] . high degree of task fragmentation and the accompanying routineness of work imposed severe demands on labour who were de-skilled and had very little control over the work process. as such mass production was contested from the outset. in 1912, ford broke a strike in buffalo plant by closing it and sending the machinery to detroit; his right-hand man, charles sorensen, had to go to britain to break the metal workers union [54, p. 45] . nevertheless, high labour turnover remained a pressing problem, reaching 380% in 1913 [36, p. 11] . in order to counter this ford famously introduced a 5-dollar day in 1914, prompting immediate discussions about the societal impacts of this move. whereas american socialists and radical press celebrated the rise in worker income, conservative voices in industry, media and church worried that ford's high wage policy may aggravate worker inequality and drive out other businesses thus leading to social unrest and overall decrease in local prosperity [38, pp. 98-102] . whereas ford's mass production was starting to push aside its competitors (e.g. taylorism) in the mobility system, specialty production continued to thrive elsewhere. in usa it contributed roughly about 1/3 of the value added in 1909 [43, pp. 13-16] whereas in europe the craft tradition remained largely unchallenged. in many areas such as jewellery or furniture quickly changing consumer demand made mass production techniques non-viable. however, whereas the gestation period had been characterized by loose borrowing of selected principles, some specialty producers now started to establish more symbiotic relationships with mass producers, e.g. machine shops supplying specialized single-purpose machinery for early automobile manufacturers [43, p. 218 ]. (1920-1938) whereas ford had inaugurated a new regime of mass production his continued focus on productivity maximization and price-cutting of a single product made him less responsive to variations in demand. from the 1920s general motors had begun to seek for alternatives in order to balance the economies of scale offered by mass production with diversity in demand characteristic of market economies. this led gm to introduce many business-related innovations such as the installation of multi-divisional decentralized management structure, use of consumer credit or the facilitation of used-car trade-ins. however, gm's strategy also implied changes in production leading to a new variation, 'flexible mass production' [36] . as a guiding rule production had to be designed for annual model change, often involving minor stylistic changes. the combination of uniformity and variety was achieved by using similar components across different car models. the flexibility of production was further increased by the customization of general-purpose machinery (vs. highly specialized single-purpose machines that had characterized ford's production). the overall effectiveness of increased flexibility was reflected in the fact that in 1927 gm's chevrolet outsold ford in the american market for the first time [54, p. 69 ]. from the 1920s mass production consolidated its foothold in the systems of mobility (increasing diffusion of cars, especially in usa), defence (mechanization of war as an anticipated direction of evolution) and food (continued mechanization of agriculture, new techniques of fruit canning and baking, introduction of toasters). new consumer durables often acted as vehicles for introducing mass production to new systems, e.g. communication (radio sets) and housing (washing machines, vacuum cleaners, electric irons) [38, p. 51] . the take-up of mass production often resulted in three types of outcomes: 1) consolidating existing links within a system, e.g. oil production and car diffusion in the mobility system; 2) acting as one of the building blocks for system transitions: for example, in the food system mechanization was increasingly combined with the principles of chemicalization (e.g. the use of nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides) and selection of plants and animals suitable for standardized production, gradually paving way to the intensive agriculture regime [56, pp. 375-376]; 3) consolidating or creating new links between systems, e.g. drive-in cinemas linking mobility and communication systems or electrical appliances in the housing system intensifying production in the energy system. mass production also started to become an increasingly "powerful general concept. it quickly shed its technical and precise meaning and started to move toward an abstract ideal of standardization, mechanization and repetitive production, allied to implications of order, rationality and universality" [37, p. xvii] . this was reflected in using the term as a loose metaphor to describe various technical and social activities (energy production, education, artistic performances), the influence of machine aesthetic on industrial designers and artists (e. at the same time attempts to extend mass production through direct imitation often resulted in failures. us automotive dealers largely resisted ford's efforts to introduce routinized work procedures, division of labour, specialized machinery and progressive layout of equipment [57] . in both europe and usa various attempts were made (and abandoned) to produce houses on the assembly line. american mechanical engineers also advocated the increasing use of mass production in woodworking and furniture industry on the grounds of increased efficiency, largely neglecting consumer preferences favouring diversity [ during the 1920s-1930s the contestation of mass production gradually changed from an individual worker strategy of 'voting with one's feet' to organized resistance. added to the familiar concerns about repetitiveness and de-skilling were the various tactics of the american automobile industry for increasing the pace of work without a corresponding rise in wages, e.g. increase of line speed after installing new machinery or setting special daily production goals [64] . until the end of the 1920s the industry's high wages had generally neutralized the need for worker organization. however, with the great depression the power of management over labour was further increased as worker job security turned ever more fragile. this situation eventually led to the establishment of the united automobile workers union in 1935 and the introduction of sit-down strikes [38, pp. 116-120] . although the automotive industry started making gradual concessions to workers, the conflict was not entirely resolved by the end of the 1930s: the link between mass production and labour organization was to be consolidated only after wwii. the relationship between mass and specialty production was characterized by important regional differences. in european countries with a strong craft tradition, mass production was claimed to be an american phenomenon that, because of smaller markets, lower incomes and diversified consumer preferences, could not be copied [65] . in usa, however, a shift from symbiosis to competition between mass and specialty production was taking place. for example, in the early 1920s several clothing manufacturers installed two or more assembly lines, one for standardized and the other for customized production [66] . however, by the end of the decade the prevalent rhetoric of 'simplification', advocated by president hoover, engineering societies and managers, started to associate industrial diversity with inefficiency and waste. the federal trade commission and department of justice also countered attempts at regulating competition through price coordination and exclusive sales agreements. this effectively forced specialty producers to compete on price, making them lose one of their distinctive characteristics, and initiating the gradual waning of flexible production in usa [43] . increasing public visibility of mass production raised wildly ranging hopes and fears about its societal effects. for example, ford's waste handling practices were initially argued to contribute to the preservation of america's timber resources [67, p. 151 ]. an influential advocate of fordism argued that the abundance enabled by mass production would lead to the "abandonment of all class thinking and the substitution of fact-finding for tradition" [68, p. 1]. mass production was also associated with the possibility of shorter working hours leading, in turn, to worries about future technological unemployment. these utopian promises initially made mass production attractive to radical political forces and totalitarian governments [69] . however, by 1930s widespread optimism had given way to two streams of critique. the great depression had problematized the necessity of connections between mass production, high employment, rising wages and increasing living standard. especially in europe mass production was argued to lead to the homogenization of products, consumers, personality and culture [38, pp. 88-93] . for example, a french satirical film "à nous la liberté" from 1931 drew parallels between industrial working conditions and life in prison (see figure 5 ). existential threats posed by wartime conditions prompted several experiments to improve the performance of weapons and to reduce the number of defects. strategies for seeking trade-offs between product quality and quantity led to differing national strategies: whereas german and british managers preferred increasing quality and constant modifications, american and soviet industrialists stressed quantity and refrained from changes preventing the full deployment of assembly line techniques [70, p. 358 ]. the management of this balance led to experiments with continuous improvement and just-in-time strategy in airplane production [71] . german concentration camps were also experimenting with flexibility in uniform production combining the use of female prisoners with no special skills or training needed, state-of-the-art sewing machines and electric motors [38, p. 132 ]. however, these experiments largely failed to spill over to the civil sector after the war when both usa and europe largely reverted to better established techniques of mass production. war requirements greatly increased the need for standardized products, including clothing, weaponry and food. government procurement, investments in factory equipment and other subsidies directly facilitated mass production [72] as did cooperation needs between allies. especially important was the lend lease act (1941) through which usa began to provide supplies to allies, e.g. trucks, boots and food for the soviet red army or car parts to britain for the manufacturing of jeeps [38, p. 135;70, p. 354] . whereas wwi had provided a stimulus to extend the nascent mass production regime to the defence system, wwii helped to consolidate its centrality for war in the entire region. in the american food system, where the adoption of mass produced vehicles was well underway, wwii proved to be a literal turning point (see figure 6 ). the war also demonstrated possibilities for extending the meta-regime from one application to another. for example, the construction tycoon henry j. kaiser established the california shipbuilding corporation in 1941 for the purpose of mass producing military ships and although he had no prior experience in the field, the enterprise became the country's leading shipbuilder [73] . another example is the hiring of henry ford's chief engineer to design the willow run production line for assembling b-24 heavy bombers [74] . the established infrastructure often facilitated dual use: in the usa aircraft engines were produced in converted automobile factories [75] whereas in germany wartime aircraft production led to the development of a strong supply network forming a basis for post-war automobile industries [76] . wartime conditions heightened the need for 'mass loyalty' which meant putting labour conflict on hold and mobilizing the entire population in the name of cooperation and shared sacrifice [38, pp. 128-131;78] . in this way the combination of direct and indirect effects of wwii paved way for the post-war dominance of mass production. the lack of demand for specialty production together with state investments in mass production created a productive capacity that could be converted for civil purposes after the war. the forced savings of a substantial amount of soldiers [72] created a possibility for post-war mass consumption. the devastation of war also raised pressing concerns for which mass production seemed to provide appropriate solution. the food system is a case in point. although organic farming had started to gain public visibility in britain shortly before wwii, severe post-war food shortages provided strong incentives for industries and newly founded international organizations such as fao to favour intensive agriculture instead [79, pp. 115-120] . (1946-1959) the post-war era can be described as the societal embedding of mass production: connecting it to horizontally integrated and multi-divisional big enterprises in the economic dimension, social contract between employers, labour and policymakers within the framework of a nationallybounded welfare state in the political dimension, individualized private mass consumption in everyday life and the ideology of material and social progress in the cultural dimension [11, 80] . the combination of these features put a foundation to long-lasting economic growth in various regions of the world, enabling them to catch up with the usa. mass production continued to develop in two directions. in usa, labour unrest had prompted a managerial vision of a fully automated factory. underlying this vision were two principles: embedding the task sequences of skilled workmen in machine tools (initially through 'record and playback' systems) and using the idea of feedback to increase the flexibility of machine tools. the full realization of these principles was envisioned to result in computer-controlled assembly lines staffed with robots that would enable to replace not only semi-skilled blue-collar workers but also skilled blue-collar and white-collar employees [38, pp. 157-161] . whereas the rhetoric of automation was also embraced in post-war japan, experiments undertaken in toyota from 1948 focused much more on improvements in product quality, reorganization of work and increasing labour involvement. responding to constraints that had made europeans largely reject mass production in the interwar era relative lack of capital, smaller volumes of production and higher variety of models toyota started to introduce novel production principles. these included an imperative to design production for continuous product and process improvement (vs. the fairly limited flexibility of the american approach), using worker expertise as a constant input for production improvement (vs. restricting workers to the role of task execution), allowing workers to stop the production process upon spotting an error (vs. having to succumb to the dictate of the assembly line) and 'just-in-time' provision of an exact amount of supplies (vs. 'just-in-case' buffering of stocks) [42, [82] [83] [84] (see figure 7) . similarly to ford's early activities these rules emerged in a piecemeal fashion: by the end of the 1950s toyota's practices had not been even formally codified yet [85] . post-war decades were characterized by the continued deepening of mass production in systems where it had been previously employed, reflected in a move from vehicles and consumer durables to other system components. for example, in order to employ picking machines in the american food system, a standardized tomato with a thicker skin had to be bred, picked green, chemically ripened and 'enhanced' with salt and sugar to compensate for the loss of flavour [86, pp. 291-293) . another way of deepening involved a shift from previously attempted full-scale imitation to more selective adoption. for example, whereas the 'move work to worker' principle had been abandoned in the housing system, the use of standardized components and architecture still enabled a rapid construction of blocks of identical-looking houses [38, pp. 149-151] . as a result couplings between systems became consolidated in a manner that would stimulate the further deployment of mass production. this was the case for us mobility and housing systems: mass produced cars enabled to live further from the city centre facilitating urban sprawl, whereas the creation of new suburbs without efficiently functioning public transport amplified the need for vehicles. figure 7 . 'provide supplies exactly where/when required' and 'anyone should be able to stop production upon spotting an error' rules contrasted to traditional mass production [42, p. 92] . note the use of the word 'automation' for describing the latter. cold war provided another stimulus for the take-up of mass production as the competition between two superpowers also involved claims about living standard. through channels such as the marshall plan, the productivity mission, fulbright program and united states information agency mass production techniques, corporate organization structures, management styles, advertising, and consumer goods started to flood the transatlantic region. although the adoption of mass production remained selective and uneven [87] in many ways european countries started to become more similar to usa [60] . these influences extended beyond the iron curtain, e.g. the idea of mass produced people's car à la volkswagen beetle was present in east germany, soviet union and czechoslovakia [88] . however, as the socialist bloc prioritized the needs of the military-industrial complex both the availability and quality of consumer goods remained notably lower [89] . as a new direction automation was highly visible. by 1958, usa had 16,000 'automatic assembly machines' applied to the production of automobiles, electric motors, tv-s and radios. the role of automation in post-war industrial reconstruction was also stressed in germany, france, ussr and japan [38, pp. 161, 166-167] . in contrast, very little was known about japanese experiments in the west. toyota's engineers themselves, however, acquired information from diverse sources, including us factory visits and thorough studies of various production practices. a strive towards continuous improvements was realized through the deployment of statistical methods of quality control which had been pioneered in usa during wwii but largely abandoned thereafter. just-intime supply was derived from the supply chain practices of american supermarkets, whereas the self-stoppage mechanisms of toyota's pre-war era automatic looms inspired an idea to let the workers stop the assembly line upon spotting an error [38, pp. 187-201;42] . although the post-war era was initially characterized by the immediate eruption of major strike waves in the entire region [90] , a general trend was the gradual institutionalization of labour conflict in the entire region. on one hand unions came to be acknowledged as a legitimate part of statecapital-labour nexus; on the other hand their activities were increasingly restricted by law (e.g. the introduction of taft-hartley act in usa in 1947). continued but decreasing level of strikes was thus accompanied by the increasingly routine and ritual nature of these activities [91] . the increasing acceptance of mass production was also evident in its relation to possible alternatives such as specialty production. instead of asking whether to adopt mass production, different countries outside usa now focused on the question of how to make best use of these techniques in given national conditions [38, pp.135-140;60] . in terms of societal effects mass production was heavily propagated as a basis for postwar reconstruction with rising productivity linked to higher living standards and social progress. the general theme of prosperity was now dominant in the entire region. however, the cultural critique of mass production also started to spread in a similar manner. increasingly influential authors of the frankfurt school argued that alienation was a consequence of the concentration of production into large-scale monopolistic corporations, the division of labour between mental and manual work and the increasing routineness and monotony of work tasks [48] . importantly, the sources of alienation were not seen as specific to particular economic or political systems but rather the underlying features of all modern industrial societies. for example, fromm claimed that both capitalist and communist countries were developing into managerial societies that "make machines that act like men and produce men who act like machines" [92, p. 33 ]. (1960-1972) in the 1960s the excesses of mass production started to provoke radical responses from niches. counterculture activists increasingly experimented with food cooperatives and small-scale enterprises under local ownership, emphasizing home-made goods, recycling, organic food, smallscale technologies, and do-it-yourself furniture, food, energy and shelter [38, pp. 175-177] . in parallel, with the initiation of border industrialization program in 1965 some american corporations started to shift manufacturing jobs to northern mexico [93] . this enabled to sustain profitability by cutting the labour costs while also decoupling production in one location from end use in another. although the broader implications were not fully understood at the time, the expansion and knock-on effects of offshoring -de-industrializing the west and putting an end to the post-war welfare state compromise -would come to exhibit significant global impacts over the following decades [94, 95] . the american ideal of computer-aided design and manufacturing continued to hold sway as reflected, for example, in the development of numerically-controlled machine tools [96] . although influential experts such as norbert wiener expected full factory automation to occur by the 1960s, numerous technical difficulties resulted in far more modest outcomes: by mid-1970s the number of robots in us enterprises was still around 6,000 [38, pp. 159-161] . continuing large investments in r&d and various experiments in the field of information technologies nevertheless helped to establish a foundation to the 5 th great surge of development, unfolding from the early 1970s [10, 11] . whereas automation had run into difficulties in usa, the japanese alternative was gradually maturing to take the world by surprise in the 1970s. novel principles included a strive to implement changeover as quickly as possible (e.g. shigeo shingo's single-minute exchange dies), designing products so that they would be easy to manufacture, organizing work in teams of multi-skilled workers and maintaining close and cooperative relations throughout the entire supply chain [82, 83, 97, 98] . in the mid-1960s the new approach was formally documented for the first time as the toyota production system [85] . further consolidation of mass production in different systems and countries continued to be the dominant theme in the 1960s, reflected in the diffusion of various consumer goods such as automobiles, refrigerators or tv sets (see figure 8 ). the logic of mass production and consumption had also pervaded the socialist bloc: for example, the soviet seven-year plan for 1958-1965 promised to match the usa in housing and consumer durables. the resulting 'consumer socialism' [99] attempted to emulate the west in terms of product quality and availability. as a result, one could observe the homogenization of energy and materials usage profiles in the region: whereas the consumerist west was producing increasing amounts of waste, the more limited consumption in the east was amply offset by the deployment of inefficient production technologies [100] and general disregard of environmental impacts. the situation with american and japanese approaches to mass production continued to be similar: high international visibility of the automation discourse whereas toyota's experiments remained largely unknown outside japan. notably, the increasing reach of mass production stimulated niche responses on the same scale, e.g. the internationalization of organic farming [79, pp. 156-183] and appropriate technology movement [47, pp. 453-459] . by 1960s two broad trends in the contestation of mass production had become visible: geographical homogenization and broadening of resistance. as european countries increasingly followed the us lead in adopting mass production, the societal critique associating mass production with cultural homogenization, loss of individuality, creativity and spontaneity was now increasingly present in the usa. by the end of the decade, the contestation of mass production had escalated into an all-out attack on industrial society and its underlying values of efficiency, standardization and businessdrivenness [38, pp. 168-170] . these sentiments were expressed in many influential works by herbert marcuse, jacques ellul, theodore roszak and lewis mumford [102] [103] [104] [105] . a novel strand of critique [106, 107] attacked the western lifestyle for its high use of energy, materials, food and water, increasing production of waste, throw-away consumer culture, and the environmental consequences of these practices. the different tensions culminated in 1968 as mass anti-establishment protests spread over the us and europe, most notably in france and czechoslovakia, involving a wide range of people from workers to students. in 1970 the first earth day celebration in usa brought together 20 million people, including students and housewives' organizations, further demonstrating the power of citizen activism [108, p. 264 ]. the analysis in this section follows the structure of section 2 where we describe our theoretical framework. we begin by comparing the empirical patterns evident in every period to the phasespecific model of dt consisting of six propositions (gestation, irruption, frenzy, turning point, synergy, maturity). we then move to comparing the patterns that we detected throughout the periods to the three overall trends prescribed by the dt framework (variation, diffusion, contestation). for all six phases we cover main trends in niches and single systems (rules/regimes), interconnected systems (meta-rules/meta-regimes) and on the landscape level. this yields 18 cells presented in table 2. each cell has been colour coded to facilitate obtaining a quick visual overview of the main results. green was used when the authors agreed that the development of mass production was yellow was used when the authors either failed to find empirical support for a particular proposition or when unexpected findings were detected. these assessments reflect the authors' interpretive consensus as decisions whether the findings are 'largely in line' or 'sufficiently deviant' entail an unavoidable and irreducible amount of subjectivity. although below we try to substantiate each theoretical claim with empirical illustrations, the reader is referred back to section 4 for more empirical detail backing up our conclusions. shortage, road and rail networks, population growth, big corporations, rise of engineering, cultural values) set the stage for the emergence of mass production 1908-1919 rules/regimes: alignment of various rules into mass production regime in the mobility system (ford, usa) meta-rules/meta-regimes: early experiments with mass production in food and defence systems (tractors, artillery shells), including some initial setbacks (submarine patrol boats) landscape: wwi stimulates the extension of mass production to new systems and locations (europe) 1920-1938 rules/regimes: 'flexible mass production' emerges in the mobility system (general motors, usa) meta-rules/meta-regimes: competition between rulesets (fordist vs. flexible mass production), selective adoption of us rules in europe resulting in regional variations (bataism, bedaux system); emergence and consolidation of links within and between systems (e.g. energy-housing, mobility-communication) landscape: great depression decreases the utopian promises of mass production, while stimulating increasingly organized worker resistance 1939-1945 rules/regimes: experiments with flexible and just-intime production of airplanes (usa and europe) meta-rules/meta-regimes: consolidation of mass production in some systems (food) and extension in others (ships and airplanes in the defence system); factories as structural couplings (e.g. between mobility and defence systems) landscape: direct and indirect effects of wwii (creation of productive capacity, putting the resolution of labour conflict on hold, forced savings, acute shortages) increasingly favour mass production 1946-1959 rules/regimes: experiments with automation (usa), and constant improvement (toyota, japan) meta-rules/meta-regimes: societal embedding of mass production, further consolidation in systems and 'americanization' of the transatlantic region landscape: facilitated by cold war, mass production starts to contribute to long-lasting post-war economic growth in the entire region rules/regimes: further development of variations of mass production (usa, japan), resurgence of radical alternatives to mass production in niches (organic farming, local production, appropriate technology) meta-rules/meta-regimes: dominant meta-regime further optimized (start of offshoring, usa) landscape: mass production increasingly associated with broad societal fears (cultural homogenization, alienation) and severe environmental impacts (high resource use, waste, pollution) in general we assess that the development of mass production largely matches the theoretical expectations in 12 cells out of 18. furthermore, apart from frenzy, all phases contained minimally a 2/3 match with the expected dynamics. the frenzy phase was also the only one where yellow colour was partly used because of our inability to find supporting evidence. namely, whereas the theory stressed the role of transnational organizations in meta-regime building, our evidence pointed to the role of national organizations instead (e.g. bhpc in uk, rkw in germany). this might reflect a source bias of our study as historians of technology have fairly recently started to focus on transnational organizations [40, 109] . in all other instances yellow colour denotes unexpected findings that indicate the need to extend the dt framework. first, based on our analysis of meta-regime building in the frenzy phase we propose that in addition to structural and functional couplings systems also link to each other through shared discourses or 'rhetorical couplings'. these couplings manifest themselves in three ways: 1) claims about the paradigmatic system as a direct source of imitation, e.g. interwar era beliefs that assembly line techniques from car production can be applied to prefabricated housing; 2) downplaying the difficulties associated with cross-system or cross-regional knowledge transfer, e.g. ford's belief that mass production can be adopted anywhere with minimal changes; 3) abstracting the technical principles of the meta-regime into more general concepts, e.g. the use of mass production as a loose mobilizing metaphor or part of an overall societal philosophy. whereas the first two strategies often led to setbacks and failures when attempting to move from rhetoric to practice, the diffuseness, openness and flexibility of 'generalized fordism' enabled to connect different systems on a rhetorical level in the entire transatlantic region. somewhat paradoxically these findings suggest that, at least in early stages, rhetorical couplings facilitate meta-regime building because of the high degree of abstraction of claims involved, not because of their specificity. the rest of the deviations in each phase (from irruption to maturity) relate to the effect of landscape dynamics on the evolution of rules and rule-sets throughout the entire surge. based on our data we distinguish between three types of landscape impacts: 1) stimulating new rules and rule-sets, e.g. the set of various broad factors in usa facilitating the precursors of mass production (gestation phase); 2) amplifying existing rules and rule-sets, e.g. the role of wwi (irruption phase) and the cold war (synergy and maturity phases) in extending mass production to new systems and locations; 3) closing off alternative directions, e.g. the role of great depression in detaching mass production from its utopian promises of societal overhaul (frenzy phase). importantly, as a turning point event wwii exerted all three types of effects, e.g. experiments with flexible production of airplanes, extension of mass production in defence and food systems, and the reduction of possibilities for alternative practices such as organic farming. our findings complement the theoretical model of dt that restricts the importance of landscape impacts largely to early stages and the turning point. they also call for more reflections on the role of the landscape in the study of single system transitions where exogenous pressures are often relegated to the role of early enablers [13, 32] . moreover, the results call into question conceptualizations in long wave literature claiming surges to be driven by an internal logic, e.g. the shifting balance between production and finance capital in perez's [10] model. this suggests two possibilities: either these literatures have so far paid insufficient attention to landscape dynamics or meta-regimes are somehow distinctive in requiring continuous landscape support. in any case, further theorization of the stimulating, amplifying and terminating effects of landscape dynamics is warranted. we now move forward to assessing the cross-phase trends related to the variation, diffusion and contestation of rules. the main results are presented on figure 9 . note that similarly to interpretive accounts in long wave and transitions literature [10, p. 30; 13, p. 83 ] the curves are meant as a visual aid for the reader and do not reflect the results of a strict quantitative measurement. as with the previous section, the assessments rather reflect the authors' interpretive consensus. the results largely confirm the expected pattern in variation: gestation was characterized by high variety in different niches, irruption to synergy by the emergence, gradual improvements and societal embedding of mass production, and maturity by the resurgence of radical alternatives to mass production. however, we also found that major experiments with mass production continued in the post-war era, e.g. automation in usa and constant improvement of production in japan. this suggests that the existing dt model has somewhat overstated the incremental nature of innovation during the synergy phase. the dt framework thereby downplays the possibility that niche experiments directed at improving the existing meta-regime might eventually accumulate into a significant transformation of this meta-regime. this is precisely what happened in japan where toyota's experiments in the late 1940s gradually grew into a distinctively novel 'lean' version of mass production that started to reshape global manufacturing from the 1970s [85] . more research is thus required to find out what conditions facilitate the emergence of radical internal variations of meta-regimes and what factors enable to scale up these variations. the general trend was also confirmed for diffusion: despite various setbacks, mass production spread through selective adoption to successive systems and countries throughout the entire surge. however, our analysis also revealed specific channels of early diffusion: 1) mass production was more likely to move from one location to another when the underlying systems were similar, e.g. the early adoption of us techniques by french car producers; 2) mass production was more likely to move from one system to another in a given location, e.g. an early extension of mass production to the food system in usa; 3) in different systems mass production was first more likely to be applied to similar technologies, e.g. the use of mechanized vehicles in the american food system preceding the standardization of tomatoes. these findings are in line with evolutionary economic geography which has demonstrated the role of different forms of proximity (cognitive, organizational, social, institutional and geographical) in facilitating learning and innovation [110] [111] [112] . however, explanations relying on differing forms of proximity fail to explain why radical movements and totalitarian governments were initially most receptive to mass production [69] . in our view this observation might be better explained by the mechanism of social differentiation as used in sociological and marketing research [113, 114] . works in these disciplines show that consumers use new products to express individual identity, to highlight their group affiliation and to signal their distinctiveness from other social groups. mcmeekin and southerton [115] have applied this idea to socio-technical systems, arguing that contrasting group definitions of users can either support or hinder transitions. our findings suggest that the mechanism of social differentiation can be further extended to entire societies and to the diffusion of meta-regimes. this is in line with recent historical literature, highlighting the central role of fordism in the attempts of nazi germany and soviet union to create a societal alternative to western liberal capitalism [62, 116] . in terms of contestation our findings confirmed that irruption and synergy were characterized by lower degrees of conflict than frenzy and maturity phases. however, the specific forms of contestation turned out to be quite different before and after wwii. during irruption and frenzy phases we observed a high degree of initial uncertainty about the societal impacts of mass production (e.g. celebration of and worries about the 5-dollar day in usa) and individualized worker resistance being reduced to fewer but regionally varying themes by the 1930s (organized worker resistance in usa where mass production was being adopted, cultural critique in europe where mass production was resisted). during synergy and frenzy phases we first observed the homogenization of themes of contestation across the entire region (e.g. institutionalization of labour conflict in western europe, cultural critique of mass production being taken up in usa). this was followed by the generalization of contestation to broader societal and environmental themes of j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f which mass production was only a part (e.g. revolutions of 1968, earth day in 1970). we suggest that the homogenization of contestation mirrors the transatlantic diffusion of rules (i.e. equalization of both experienced issues and anticipated fears), whereas the generalization of critique reflects the impacts of the meta-regime on the socio-material landscape. in this paper we have provided the first systematic empirical assessment of the co-evolutionary rulebased model of deep transitions [1] by studying the development of mass production in the transatlantic region between 1765 to 1972. our main findings are as follows: 1. in general the historical evolution of mass production matches the expected phase-specific patterns of the model. unexpected findings include the lack of empirical evidence of the role transnational actors in the frenzy phase, the importance of landscape dynamics throughout the entire surge and the role of rhetorical couplings in connecting different systems. 2. expected cross-phase patterns were also largely detected in the variation, diffusion and contestation of rules and rule-sets. unexpected findings include the emergence of alternative versions of the dominant meta-regime in niches even during synergy and maturity phases, the role of various forms of proximity and social differentiation in facilitating the diffusion of meta-regimes, and contestation mirroring the increasing scale, scope and societal embeddedness of the meta-regime. 3. landscape dynamics were found to support the evolution of the emerging meta-regime by a) stimulating new rules and rule-sets; b) amplifying existing rules and rule-sets; and; c) closing off alternative directions. the turning point event exerts all three types of impacts. 4. meta-regime building is facilitated by three mechanisms: rhetorical couplings, proximity and social differentiation. interestingly, we found that the optimistic expectations maintained by rhetoric and utopian promises of societal differentiation can counterbalance the considerable difficulties of implementing the meta-regime in practice. although our results have largely confirmed the dt model, the support offered by an exploratory qualitative case study remains tentative. the next step is to move from solely qualitative assessments to mixed method approaches, combining historical narratives with text mining techniques. this enables to quantify the emergence and alignment of rules but also to interpret the findings in a historically informed manner [blinded, forthcoming]. also, mass production constituted a case most likely to follow the theoretical propositions. further work is required to find out whether the model applies to more recent meta-regimes such as digitalization or circular economy. these cases also offer opportunities to look into the operation of mechanisms uncovered by our study, e.g. the fourth industrial revolution [117] as a rhetorical coupling connecting the digitalization of industry to the promise of sustainability, or societal differentiation as a mechanism connecting big data, ai, facial recognition software and social credit schemes to the chinese vision of 'harmonized' society [118, 119] . one can also analyse the role of landscape events in shaping these meta-regimes, e.g. the role of 9/11 or the current coronavirus pandemic in facilitating the societal embedding of digitalization towards increased citizen monitoring and surveillance in usa and china respectively [18, 120] . similarly to the early applications of the multi-level perspective the dt framework has so far primarily focused on the identification of broad patterns. although empirical work has begun on the role of transnational actors in shaping emerging meta-regimes [121] , van der vleuten [122] has argued for the need to broaden the analysis to 'system entanglers', producing cross-regional similarities and differences between systems. another 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forging global fordism: soviet russia, nazi germany, and the contest over the industrial order constructing and data-driven society: china's social credit system as a state surveillance infrastructure china's "politics of harmony" and the quest for soft power in international politics the new normal': china's excessive coronavirus public monitoring could be here to stay adopting and diffusing the circular economy as a policy concept: the case of the european union radical change and deep transitions: lessons from europe's infrastructure transition 1815-2015 this article has been discussed with various colleagues at the international sustainability transitions 2018 conference and in a series of workshops, including the deep transitions research team and invited guests. in particular we would like to thank johan schot, ed steinmueller, carlota perez, david nye and phil scranton for their informative comments. this work was supported by james anderson and baillie gifford & co.j o u r n a l p r e -p r o o f key: cord-354941-0ocsf255 authors: amorin‐woods, deisy; fraenkel, peter; mosconi, andrea; nisse, martine; munoz, susana title: family therapy and covid‐19: international reflections during the pandemic from systemic therapists across the globe date: 2020-06-08 journal: aust n z j fam ther doi: 10.1002/anzf.1416 sha: doc_id: 354941 cord_uid: 0ocsf255 the covid‐19 pandemic has convulsed human communities across the globe like no previous event in history. family therapists, paradoxically, given the core of their work is with systems, are also experiencing upheaval in professional and personal lives, trying to work amidst a society in chaos. this paper offers a collection of reflections by systemic and family therapists from diverse cultures and contexts penned in the midst of the pandemic. the main intention in distilling these narratives is to preserve the ‘cultural diversity’ and ‘ecological position’ of the contributors, guided by phenomenology, cultural ecology, and systemic worldviews of ‘experiencing.’ the second intention is to ‘unite’ promoting solidarity in this isolating situation by bringing each story together, creating its own metaphor of a family: united, connected, stronger. as a cross‐cultural family practitioner, with a strong mission for collaboration, the lead author acknowledges the importance of context – the nation and location of the experience; culture – the manner in which culture impacts on experience; collaboration – enhancing partnership, enriching knowledge, and mapping the journey’s direction; and connectedness – combating isolation while enhancing unity. since the key transmission of culture is through language, raw reflections were sought initially in the practitioners’ own language, which were translated for an english‐speaking readership. these narratives are honest and rich descriptions of the authors’ lived experiences, diverse and distinctive. the contributors trust colleagues will find these reflections helpful, validating and acknowledging the challenges of this unique period in history. deisy amorin-woods 1 this compilation of reflections, while not a research project per se, is written in an auto-ethnographic style (ellis & bochner, 2000; rhodes, 2018) by five systemic therapists from varied cultures and contexts about the covid-19 pandemic. their narratives, experiences, perceptions, ponderings, and feelings were composed as they were living the experience; unique in their meaning making and in the way they contribute to this collection. as the lead author, i live and practice in perth, australia. reflecting my international and collective soul, my curiosity has given me the impetus to facilitate global exchange and initiate cross-cultural conversations. peter fraenkel, in new york, united states, incorporates his buddhist insight and psycho-musical intervention to provide a message of connection and hope to help others preserve a capacity for joy. andrea mosconi, from padua, italy, provides students and colleagues with a gentle message of wisdom, and insights to stimulate critical thinking and opportunities for new ways forward. martine nisse, from paris, france, delivers a 'mood note' which introduces a sense of 'lightness' in the midst of her complex and challenging work with domestic violence and incest. susana munoz from santiago, chile, with a background as a midwife, uses the metaphor of labour and birth to demonstrate survival. this 'pandemic project' initially arose mid-march as i reached out to colleagues abroad to check how they were navigating through the pandemic chaos. through our 'cross-cultural' conversations, the sense of feeling understood through shared experience and empathic means led to strengthened connection. this gave me the impetus to ask myself: wouldn't it be helpful if we could write something together to find some healing, whilst sharing our stories with others, in order for them to also find healing? i realised this was a global crisis; a collective narrative unfolding daily which has left no one untouched, and we as family therapists had important and individual stories to tell. time was of the essence, the view from this window was unique and so i drafted a brief. given my strong interest in collaboration and collaborative practice, over the years i had fostered relationships and developed partnerships including with family therapists abroad (amorin-woods, 2019). thus, i reached out to this wide network of colleagues and invited them to join me in telling our stories. most i invited responded enthusiastically to this initiative almost immediately. regrettably, due to the tight deadline, a few were understandably overwhelmed with other priorities. as a cross-cultural family therapist, my mission is to be diverse and inclusive when meeting the varied cultural needs of my clients, developing programs, delivering services, and working with families. this project was no different. as i heard the international collective voices it was thus vital to me that contributions were garnered from a cross-section of nations and continents as i wanted to honour different cultural backgrounds and language representation. i believed that by tackling phase 1sharing our experiences, we could capture each of our cultural and ecological worldviews and thus unite in this process. then, we could contemplate stepping into phase 2regenerative process in order to rebuild our own lives post-pandemic. after we are given the space to process the raw and organic heaviness of our own experience, we are able to support our clients to come up with practical responses, but not before. it was critical to put the stories together before the 'immediacy' of the raw accounts was lost. we are in the midst of the experience, in 'situ,' in confinement, confused, hypervigilant. we live in a world where we seem to 'rush' to come up with labels, treatments, and solutions to human distress, often bypassing our lived experience of suffering, loss, and isolation. i felt as if these early collections merged into one, represent the 'holding, healing space' that we as therapists need, before we dare consider what life may look like on the 'other side.' without this, how could we support our clients in putting themselves, their families, and their lives back together, in even contemplating what a world of 'functionality' or 'normality' may look like? while family therapists are aware of the importance of 'unmasking' to remain authentic to our clients and to self-disclose to deepen connection and trust, therapists do not often have the chance to share their accounts as they too travel through challenging life experiences. these reflections provide that opportunity. finally, any conversation about culture must include the element of language. since the key transmission of culture is through language, organic reflections were sought in the practitioner's primary language. as in therapy, authenticity of feelings and vulnerability cannot be truly transmitted except in the primary language (amorin-woods, 2020). however, since the main demographic of this journal speak english as their primary language, these reflections are translated and offered in english. i am deeply appreciative to each contributor for responding as i reached out. from the bottom of my heart, thank you andrea, peter, martine, and susana. deisy amorin-woods, perth, australia this pandemic is a collective trauma event and its multi-faceted impact cannot be underestimated. this leads us to first acknowledge and respect the interconnectedness and relationship between systems, within our body, between us and our environment, and between one another. this also causes us to question the notion of permanence versus impermanence and certainty versus uncertainty. as a cross-cultural family and systemic therapist, i have developed a thirst for collaboration within programs, across organisations, within communities, and across the globe (lee, thompson, & amorin-woods, 2009 ). as a migrant to australia from peru, i have always felt drawn to the idea of collectivism (amorin-woods, 2020), a sense of 'being together' and of 'joining with the other,' and that notion has never left me. whether working in government, non-government organisations (ngos), in private practice, or in academia, i have ensured i bring my 'collective soul' into my profession in the way i practice and in my teaching. i try to connect with the issues that impact on the lives of our families regardless of where they are located or where they originate (amorin-woods, 2016a , 2016b . the issues are varied and the systems diverse, whether a couple facing grief, families with intergenerational trauma, or refugees who have fled persecution. when the news broke in early 2020 about a possible epidemic, i had not conceptualised either the extent or the utter devastation that was to follow. i was due to travel to basel, switzerland in early march to present at the world congress of family global family therapists reflect on covid-19 ª 2020 australian association of family therapy therapy under the international family therapy association (ifta). ironically, my presentation was titled, therapeutic conversations and trauma informed systemic practice: acknowledging meaning making in the backdrop of relentless fear and unpredictability. two days before my departure, the conference was cancelled due to the pandemic, which was rapidly spreading around the globe. in the weeks that followed, the whole world convulsed through a rapid period of change. the need to find refuge from this potent, yet invisible, force left us vulnerable, confused, distressed, fearful, and ambivalent. in my own space, due to the need to isolate, and the closure of state borders, i have not been able to see my daughters or embrace my little 'grandies.' this has left me profoundly sad and nostalgic. having family, friends, and colleagues around the world, many located in the countries worst hit, i was driven to connect, to check-in on how they were navigating through the crisis. i heard directly their accounts of anguish, dread, panic, powerlessness, loss, and grief. this virus was burning, just like the recent ignition of highly combustible dry eucalyptus trees in the australian bush, spreading rapidly like a wildfire, loud and forceful, the echoed thoughts keeping alive the nagging fear. people wondering, will i be next? will i be a carrier and infect my loved ones? families losing parents, grandparents . . . a whole generation seemingly vanishing as in a puff of smoke. listening to these raw and distressing stories became rather confronting. i found myself holding their collective pain in my arms and with a virtual embrace. i was attempting to ease their suffering. personally, these stories transported me back to a similar experience as a child living in peru. this was a time of 'sendero luminoso' (shining path) a guerrilla group, along with 'sinchis' an anti-subversive 'police sub-group,' both of whom were responsible for committing human rights violations, terrorising and decimating over 70,000 people, most of whom were indigenous. this led to cases of intergenerational trauma, the stories of fear, sorrow, and confusion passed down as through the 'mother's breast milk' for generations. these painful memories accumulate in one's body becoming a historical site which is transported through time (rueda, 2015) . i remember my mother distraught as the situation evolved given my sibling was studying at the university at the epicentre. while not directly impacted by the war and the trauma, i felt them indirectly, yet latently, through the suffering of my mother and the stories told by my sibling who witnessed young students being murdered. this brings me back to the present time and leaves me concerned wondering whether we will see stories of pain and sorrow passed down as a result of the covid-19 war? will this generation transmit trauma to those to follow? professionally, as the epidemic evolved, so did the need to transition my practice from face-to-face to purely tele-health. while australia has been fortunate not having been impacted as heavily as other countries, i have observed among my clients signs of anxiety and hypervigilance related to the fear of transmission, as well as new manifestations of suicidal ideation previously absent. these signs are connected to a number of issues: the stress related to job loss and financial uncertainty; the sadness and loneliness linked to the inability to see family and friends; grandparents' sorrow not seeing their grandchildren, an embrace appearing so distant. children unsettled, mothers feeling stressed and exhausted juggling extra roles, including home-schooling. while some people see isolation ('iso') as simply confinement, others see it as imprisonment, fearing the threat of imminent danger if leaving their safe and familiar bubble. for others the uncertainty, the not knowing, the unpredictable re-organisation of families and communities, is too much to bear and leads to heightened levels of suicidal ideation. people ask themselves: will there be an end to this? are we facing the end of the world? there is documented concern for heightened risk of suicide among communities continuing past the pandemic (gunnell et al., 2020) . further to this, given my extensive experience working with people with acute mental health issues and with complex trauma, i am aware that people who have experienced trauma are highly impacted by threats about the safety and stability of the world (brown, 2009; james & mackinnon, 2012) . i have also observed how vulnerable families (such as families with intergenerational trauma and child abuse survivors) are particularly at high risk, and consequently presenting with clear signs of re-traumatisation. throughout this pandemic transition, i have noticed various community stances rapidly forming. one that blames, with xenophobic undertones, pointing to race and culture as the original cause of the virus, discriminating against certain cultural groups. another that labels, describing people as 'paranoid' or 'hysterical' as people frantically accumulate food supplies or simply voluntarily decide to self-isolate. a third, with traces of denial and avoidance about the existence or magnitude of the situation, that judges and ridicules those taking a more conservative approach. within this stance, there is an underlying expectation and pressure from strangers or loved ones to 'move on' rapidly through the stages of grief (kubler-ross & kessler, 2009) from shock and denial to acceptance, without recognition that people need to be allowed to 'feel their feelings.' on the other hand, i have also seen demonstrations of kindness, generosity, and solidarity for fellow community members, much of which has been led by children. teddies perched in trees, messages of encouragement and hope written around neighbourhoods to lighten the tone and brighten people's days. boxes of fresh produce or non-perishables left to help others financially disadvantaged. i have observed some people viewing this pandemic as an opportunity to start over and live in a healthier, humble, more acknowledging and respectful way towards self, towards family and their environment. i have seen occasions when cut-off families have re-connected, and couples considering separation have learned to appreciate and not take each other for granted. i have been mindful of being available for my clients, to provide the holding space to acknowledge and validate their feelings and allow them to process their experiences. the need for self-care and self-compassion takes on a new meaning in its recognition of our shared humanity. i thus ponder: are we able to provide clients with a holding space to process things if we are not connecting with ourselves? . . . even though we too are living amidst the chaos. we do not have to abnegate ourselves or our experiences and feelings to show we are capable practitioners, because when we abnegate ourselves we tell our clients to let go of parts of self in order to function, in order to accept themselves, in order to relate. we need to 'be,' before we can 'do.' remaining authentic is key in therapy. i often say to my students and supervisees, authenticity is to a therapist what breath is to life. we need to be authentic with the families who come to us with hope and trust and this includes possessing heightened awareness of ourselves, hence the need to uncover the 'self'. i recall a similar description often during my fellowship at the accademia di psicoterapia della famiglia in rome. andolfi would often make reference to ridding self of the mask and being fully self, fully human (andolfi, 2012) . it is only through such a process that we arrive to a place of recognition of what is ours and what is theirs. it is crucial that we are able to name and process our experiences in order to support our global family therapists reflect on covid-19 ª 2020 australian association of family therapy clients to do the same, in order to provide the holding space they need, and joining-in with them (minuchin, 1974) . this then allows us to welcome the rich exchange between each other in order to develop an empathic connection and trusting relationship with them (aponte, 1992) , because how can we join in with families and trust be elicited without this important element? this also helps not to transfer or project our experiences onto our clients (lum, 2002) . as systemic therapists we are in a privileged position as collaborators and partners influencing the family system and the environment and context where families are placed. this gives us the opportunity to awaken deeper knowledge and understanding within a given system, within the family who puts their trust in us. we become responsible in co-creating and co-constructing the therapeutic reality and in eliciting change (von foerster, 1981) . we influence the environment whether we bring empathy, healing, anxiety, or fear. understanding the self and understanding each other becomes the impetus for healing. around the globe, we are all living the experience of the covid-19 pandemic as a collective trauma. the chaos is real to us all. we are dealing with challenges that are comparable yet distinct. while we are all impacted, the impact is different depending on where we are located, in our culture, our ecological system, and the politics of our day. a frequently used expression suggests we are all in the same boat; however, i would like to use the metaphor, while we may be sailing the same storm, we are in different boats. how robust our ship is, and how we manoeuvre it, may determine how we survive the storm. in writing this i am mindful of families as they navigate through this pandemic. i am interested in supporting them to acknowledge their being 'human,' while rejecting reductionist ideas of 'experiencing' that rush them to numb or bypass their experience. instead, it is time to pause and connect with the basics, our relationships. the lesson from gregory bateson was the importance of the interconnectedness of living things to their natural environment (bateson, 1979) . this is so relevant to our current situation. we hear loudly the desire of communities to go back to 'normal' . . . however, do we really want to go back to the normal that we knew? or do we want to look at this as an opportunity for social change? for a change in direction? in the way we do things, in the way we relate to self, to other people, to other cultures, to our environment. instead let's nurture families and preserve relationships. let's propose a paradigm shift about the way we think of ourselves not as passive closed-off beings, but as active authors of our life, insightful, creative, purposeful, and connecting. let us use this time to co-create a space for healing and holding the human spirit. coping with covid-19: a time to focus on the simple gifts of life peter fraenkel 2 , new york, united states as news of the covid-19 pandemic quickly grew in march of this year, i immediately found myself re-immersed in the traumatic disorientation of 11 september, 2001. terrorist planes crashing into the world trade center launched new york city and the united states more generally, into what i termed 'the new normal' (fraenkel, 2001b) . yet this is different: an invisible virus with an unpredictable course, unseen yet life threatening. where to go? what to do? the answers to those questions quickly were determined in march 2020 by the governor of new york with guidance from federal and state health experts: go home, work at home. on 13 march, i delivered the last in-person workshop at the ackerman institute for the family. attendees spread out across the room as a safety precaution to decrease the likelihood of communicating the virus among us. none of the usual handshakes between newlymet colleagues, none of the usual hugs between old friends, my former students, and professional acquaintances. we carried on, focusing on effective techniques in couple therapy. but we all had a nagging sense, mostly at the periphery of our consciousness, that the world outside was growing increasingly fearsome, and that we were better off in here, held by the warm embrace of what mary pipher has called the 'shelter of each other.' as i wrote in another article after 9/11, we therapists were fortunate to be helped by the act of helping othersto belong to a community of care (fraenkel, 2002) . i've specialised for many years in work with families traumatised by incest, domestic violence, and homelessness. in my private practice, i've specialised in what i've called 'last chance couples'those who've often seen one or more couple therapists, without much improvement, and who are now on the brink of divorce or its nonmarried equivalent of relationship dissolution (fraenkel, 2019) . these two areas of my work now overlap: distressed, disengaged partners already strongly considering separating, or already living apart, now stuck together with kids and sometimes their elders and even other families. precipitous layoffs and loss of income, infection with the virus, and in some cases, the known death of relatives, friends, or colleagues, have led to the kind of traumatic effects of living through a tsunami, gathering force every day with no end in sight. at the same time, accurate information, guidance, and leadership from the federal government is sorely lacking, alarming in its own wayno comfort there. my clients are experiencing all the usual symptoms of psychological trauma: intrusive thoughts and nightmares, edginess and hypervigilance, sleeplessness, anxiety, and depression, as well as relational trauma and ruptures between couple partners, and among family members. the factor most clearly correlated with resilience in the face of trauma and other disruptive experiencessocial supportis in short supply, despite inventive use of social media and online meetings, including teletherapy. i have occasionally ventured into a nearby park with my percussion instruments to record myself playing along with inspiring songs about social justice and love, posting these videos on facebook and instagram. the response has been overwhelmingly one of gratitude and unexpected pleasure, and those responses have gratefully been received by me, giving me a slight sense that through my 'out-of-the-box' psycho-musical 'intervention,' i've helped others preserve their energy, hope, and capacity for joy. but i then return to my apartment, to be alone once again, as my kids are now attending college in europe. we're in close touch, as i am with friends and colleagues, but i surely feel isolated; and when i occasionally venture out and on to the streets to shop or bank, there's the uneasy, unreal sense of being on another planet, or at least, a familiar but altered landscape, with fearful masked neighbours strolling six feet apart. coincidentally, just a few weeks prior to news about the coronavirus, i had started writing a book for the general public about lessons to be learned from taoism about love and other relationships (fraenkel & akambe, 2020) . as a long-time buddhist and taoist, i've practiced noticing the little, familiar things and accustomed events of life that can bring unexpected joy once brought into the gentle gaze of the 'now.' for decades, i've tried to live my life as if inside a haiku poem, taking pleasure just from being sensate, breathing, and alive. musing on the nature of existence, the creator of taoism, 6th-century b.c. court librarian, philosopher, and social critic lao tzu, writes in the first passage of his classic text, the way of life (6th century bc): existence is beyond the power of words to define terms may be used but are none of them absolute . . . if name be needed, wonder names them both from wonder into wonder existence opens i've been advising all my clientsindividuals, couples, and familiesto use this disorienting time to reflect upon the following taoist suggestions, to look for opportunities to experience wonder, just as i have as a fellow traveller through this time. specifically, i've suggested they: look for pleasure and joy in small, everyday experiences. i took a break from writing this article, went to the kitchen window in my fifth-floor apartment, and watched the rain falling upon the black-painted fire escape. it was beautiful. a few hours later, i took another break, and saw my two kittens, whom i adopted from a shelter in october, cuddled together in my furry chair, sleeping contentedly. it was beautiful. it calmed me down. slow down. our usual life pace in nyc is frenetic, our lives overstuffed with aspiration, achievement, a never-ending quest for riches, possessions, and when we've accumulated enough of those, the relentless search for new experiences (which i've termed 'experience greed'), for unique travel destinations and novel experiences to empty our constantly refilling 'bucket list.' lao tzu (6th century bc) writes: gravity is the root of grace, the mainstay of all speed . . . what lord of countless chariots would ride them in vain, would make himself fool of the realm, with pace beyond rein, speed beyond helm? it's a time to stop, and look closely at what and who we already have in our lives. it's a time to breathe, walk, eat, and talk slowly, compassionately, and patiently with loved onesthose living with us or those whom the virus has separated from us. and while slowed down, take a good long look at your partner, your child, your parent, your friend, your neighbour, your colleague (online, most likely!)listen to their voices, and enjoy their unique aliveness. in the timeless words of songwriter cole porter and a song made famous by frank sinatra ('i get a kick out of you'), let yourselves 'get a kick' out of them (fraenkel, 2001a) . look at them like there's no tomorrow for them, or for you. let go of control. on a related note, we cannot definitively avoid illness, and we cannot insure through our hand-washing and social distancing and mask wearing that we will survive this pandemic, or at least, leave it unscathed health-wise, financially, or emotionally. nor can we avoid the suffering of learning that a family member, a neighbour, a student, a mentor, or a colleague is sick, or has died. radical humility is called for in this troubling, unpredictable time. take precautions, yes, but recognise that this virus is nature, and nature has its way of overcoming even the best-laid plans of mice and men. learn from persons who inhabit oppressed social locations. lao tzu (6th century bc) advocated wisdom over knowledge: leave off find learning! end the nuisance of saying yes to this and perhaps to that, what slightest use are they! if one man leads, another must follow, how silly that is and how false! communities that have experienced generations of oppression due to race, ethnicity, geographic region/country, culture, and economic status have much wisdom to share about surviving and even thriving under hardship, and about how to make do with few resources. one hysterically funny video that circulated around the internet early in the emergence of the coronavirus came from the philippines, in response to privileged westerners' panic about running out of toilet paper. it was a lively music video, with dancing women behind the male lead singer, demonstrating how to use a little colourful plastic pot called the 'tabo' to wash up after defecating. it's high time we erase the terms 'first world' and 'third world' and the power and knowledge hierarchy between the countries and cultures belonging to each politically constructed group. the world must come together to defeat this virus, and to survive, as a unified, mutually respectful people in harmony with the earth and nature itself. my mother mimi bialostolsky fraenkel, who died of cancer in 2001 just before 9/11, believed the world might eventually come together in a time she called 'creative chaos.' i think of her now, and whether this worldwide pandemic is enough to unite us in a common effort to live on. i'd like to hope so . . . but i'm not sure. what we are going through is not an ordinary crisis, this is an epochal crisis! it seems to me that it is the most obvious consideration which echoes with many. the question then may be the systemic one: what do we do in each situation for every person who presents to us with a problem? as i often say, a kind of systemic mantra: perfection, what does this allow me to learn? it is now clear that this virus has three aspects that makes it scary: 1) it is new and we cannot be immunised; 2) it also passes through healthy carriers who, even if they have a lower viral load, are still capable of contagion and therefore cannot be easily controlled; and 3) it is not a flu virus like most flu viruses. this virus directly attacks the lungs and therefore gives viral pneumonia; it also attacks many other global family therapists reflect on covid-19 ª 2020 australian association of family therapy systems in our body. from this point of view, respect for the required government measures is essential as the only defence, while there is no effective drug or vaccine. the alternative is to build herd immunity, through a selection of the species. only those with resistance will survive. on the level of interaction between this virus and the social system, the question is: how long will it last? if we take into account the date of government measures, the fact that the need to tighten up has often been felt, and also the fact that it is always difficult both to impose and to accept strict rules and that the incubation time is 15 days, it is not difficult to hypothesise that the so-called 'peak' of the infections is still to be reached. from there, it takes time for the sick to heal and for additional time to pass before the virus is eliminated by the carriers. by putting all this together, i believe that we must accept that the current situation will last a long time. epidemiologists seem to be moving increasingly in this direction, obviously, barring unforeseen events for the better and for the worse. let's have patience! however, let us look wider, at the macrosystem where all this happens. if we take into consideration the relationship between us, 'homo sapiens,' and the natural system into which we are inserted, this story changes some rules of the relationship. it allows us to realise that we are not omnipotent, but that we are part of a system that can destroy us in a short time if we do not take into account the feedback that comes from the interaction with the other elements of the system itself. its 'liberation' is part of this process of inappropriate invasion by us 'sapiens' of natural contexts not coordinated with the human system. from this point of view, this virus is a warning, it is almost a homeostatic mechanism that is produced in a system that is already at the limit of its range of possible interactions and is reaching a possible 'bifurcation point' (prigogine, 2001 p. 160) . this is a test of a general catastrophe, a global crisis. basically there are other 'covid' around which we do not want to be aware of and which can equally undermine our survival in a global way: global warming, pollution, deforestation, desertification, water consumption, economic imbalances within societies and between different parts of the world. just like the case of 'covid,' we pretend not to see them yet they advance in a hidden and creeping way until they explode. just like covid-19! the 'good' thing we can say about the virus is that, unlike wars which can be taken out on someone who is considered guilty, the same cannot happen as this virus does not discriminate; it is a common enemy of the whole system. the virus applies equally to everyone, just like in the family systems with which we want to work. just as the members of a family system at the end of a session should not be able to say who is right or who is wrong (selvini palazzoli, boscolo, cecchin, & prata, 1980) , so as humans we are driven to look at each other, to confront each other, to even try to understand and help those, who until yesterday, rejected each other. yes, there are those who, not understanding, continue to wave the flag of personal interest, or hunt the culprit, or act in their own defence, but for now they are exposed and forced to admit or to try to make amends. for now, solidarity prevails, and there is admiration for the commitment and generosity of those on the front line, a sense of being a community. and we see the increasingly clear signs that, where man takes a step back, the natural system of which we are part takes a breath, pollution decreases, and everything seems to show us what we must consider for development and the future. a great opportunity, don't you think? but several times i have said: for now . . . the real question is: will we be able to take this into account? this brings another consideration regarding the social system. in recent years, perhaps blinded by the race for well-being or perhaps because well-being itself had allowed many to take advantage of it incorrectly even in public structures, the focus has been rebalancing national budgets by destroying the network of structures that had functioned as the skeleton, blood, and neurological system of society by supporting and bringing food throughout the social system. i am talking about healthcare, public education, welfare . . . let's consider what it means not to have continued to be aware of the value of these 'elements' of the social system. i say this both for those who have dishonestly taken advantage of it from within and for those who, from their own ideology, have fought them. here, this crisis can help us rearrange the scale of values regarding what is most important to preserve in a social system, counterbalancing the excessive importance given to the production system, to take into due consideration what is at the basis of a possible safe and civil coexistence. even regarding the enormous development of the computer network that is becoming more and more the neuronal network of the planet: on the one hand it allows us to accelerate the feedback between parts of the system facilitating the possibility of co-building solutions; on the other hand tomorrow it will put us in the face of problems such as the enormous possibility of controlling, even more than now, individual lives and determining who and how to manage the enormous power that all this enters . . . and in whose hands? of course, it is always the two polarities of the life of a system that must be balanced: the competitive system and the collaborative one. the same goes for natural selection which is the survival of the fittest and the other towards the idea that the average good of the most is better than the maximum good of the few. but here the question is: will we remember it later? and what does all this say about our systems of daily interaction, to our closest systems? of course, stopping puts us in a position to change our position in the systems of which we are a part and the relationship rules change. we feel distant from those who were close to us, communicating virtually with those we used to touch, look in the face, caress, shake hands, pat on the shoulder, take by the arm. in contrast, we find ourselves living with those who we did not have close to us for so many hours or who we were even in conflict with, seeing him/her every day and maybe having to talk to each other. we can no longer take advantage of dissipative structures, as they are called, which diluted and differentiated, distributed the tensions of the systems: work, travel, school, various activities. maybe if we choose to use the avoidance mechanism that is so useful to delude ourselves that there is a balance in relationships? no, we can't back off now, we're in touch! and then? this is an opportunity to stop and listen to ourselves and others, try to look at them with different eyes, re-appreciate the small gestures, let things arise from building together and patiently look for solutions, not problems. so, in the infinite space we can perhaps rediscover the value of everyday life, of silence, of simple things, of doing together, of allowing our imagination to bring to mind an idea. sometimes it's simpler than it seems! and with our patients . . . 'clients?' here too our position changes. from time to time we may find ourselves inventing different ways of making ourselves feel close, exploring new and different tools for staying in relationship and offering help, believing that, beyond the tool used, the relationship is what matters. cecchin's words echo on us: we all need to feel seen, and to feel seen we are willing to invent all the colors! (cecchin, 1987 p. 410) . and then of course: hypothesis, circularity, and neutrality! (selvini palazzoli et al., 1980) . so, our patients will feel us present, even if in a different way, and they will appreciate our sincere and attentive commitment. as milton erickson (erickson & rossi, 1979, p. 87) said: there are no difficult or incurable patients, there are only therapists who are able or unable to find a way to communicate with them. another thing comes to mind. let's see how a small virus, which affects the system at a specific point, achieves great effects. this can be a teaching for our therapy. the 'saltology' mentioned by the milan team in the first pages of paradox and counterparadox comes to mind: the results confirmed that, when it is possible to discover and change a fundamental rule of a system, pathological behavior can quickly disappear. this leads us to accept rabkin's proposed idea: that in nature events of radical importance can happen suddenly when a fundamental rule of a system is changed. rabkin proposes the term "saltology", that is saltology (from the latin saltus) for the discipline that should study these phenomena. this finds its correspondence in the general theory of systems whose theorists speak of "p.s." as of that point of the system on which the maximum number of essential functions converges to a system, changing when obtaining the maximum change with a minimum of energy expenditure. (selvini palazzoli, boscolo, cecchin, & prata, 1975, p. 12) so, these are my reflections these days which i wanted to share. all this 'allows us to learn' and perhaps finally arrive. it is an opportunity to become aware what this covid virus . . . offers us as systemic therapists. let's go ahead, let's build better times together! small mood note from a french family therapist in times of pandemic (petit billet d'humeur d'une th erapeute familiale franc ßaise en temps de pand emie) the family therapy sessions i conduct are very rarely by videoconference. when they are, they involve my patients who, for one reason or another, have gone abroad to settle temporarily or permanently. but since the arrival of the pandemic in france, one of my patients, herself a psychotherapist and familiar with consultations by videoconference, has pushed me towards this mode of therapy. two days after the announcement of the confinement, i was equipped, and i launched the invitations to my patients. after researching what angle of view for my webcam would symbolically give an open message about the future, i decided to turn my back to my patio, so that the view behind me would lead them towards the sun and the plants. the weather is extraordinarily nice, the pollution in paris has dropped dramatically, the sun is shining without any halo of pollution. birds are heckling in the city. i half draw two curtains, in the colour of my therapy room, which has been abandoned since the confinement, and adjust lights towards my face to gently counterbalance the brightness of the outside. it is, finally, a kind of 'chiaroscuro' (light/dark) that makes my first affected and surprised patients say, keep going . . . it reminds us of vermeer . . . the surprises are mutual, i arrive directly in their living room, or their office, even if they have passed through my 'virtual waiting room' of zoom. i note that some have asked their spouse to use their one-hour right of exit during the consultation to be quiet, others are gathered on the living room sofa, a cup of tea in hand with their pet. sometimes a decorative detail jumps out at me, so 'connected' with the patient's problem that i cannot avoid referring to it. one of these surprised patients says to me, do you want me to show you where i live? i pose and respond, no thanks. or . . . maybe . . . yes, you could ask all your patients to show you their home, you could learn a lot from that? . . . don't you think so? . . . mmm, no, i don't think so. holding the structure is one of the signatures of family therapy. most of my patients have been exposed to violence that has broken into their psyche (nisse, 2020; nisse & sabourin, 2004) . re-establishing boundaries or maintaining distance from others requires an ongoing effort. it requires constant therapeutic adjustment. i find that they are grateful for the availability of their therapist. i find that after the first few sessions, i feel as if i am regenerated. despite the shock of this epidemic, i have not forgotten anything about my way of being a therapist with each of them, nor their family history. my abilities as a therapist seem to be naturally at my disposal. the new and artificial proximity of the screen requires me to be attentive to maintain a therapeutic atmosphere (nisse, 2020) , in conformity with the pre-existing one: that is to say, intimate and respectful at the same time. i also note that since the beginning of the pandemic their psychological work seems to be more productive between sessions. some patients have refused videoconference sessions. they cannot imagine hearing themselves or me talking at home about the violence, especially sexual violence, for which they have consulted; they don't have housing where it's possible to really isolate themselves, or they are single women raising their children. sometimes, a patient who has not responded to the offer checks in with her therapist with a fear of illness. some of them tested positive for covid-19. it is nothing too serious, but a great deal of fatigue and fear for the impact on others. i don't have a pre-established bilateral agreement for the therapeutic meeting by videoconferencethis bothers me a little, but i know my patients, i trust them. it will be possible to establish it afterwards for the next sessions. the french or european family therapy societies provide support, stimulate reflection on this subject, offer platforms for exchange with family therapists, or platforms for helping families stressed by covid-19 or affected by it and also affected by sudden bereavement. a large part of our patient population is made up of children who have been placed in care by the juvenile judges. they come from all over france, and half of the country is currently in the 'red zone,' which means that children are not allowed to go to school or to travel more than 100 kilometres to go to court. as for each of the people living in this 'red zone,' sometimes, as i know from the supervisions i give by videoconference, a certain number of them paradoxically relax knowing they will not receive any more parental visits, mediated at the same time . . . recently, the status of social workers has changed. they are now considered during this time of pandemic as health professionals, and as such they have the right to travel to meet with children. the idea emerges to organise family network therapy sessions by videoconference before the end of the confinement. the centre des buttes-chaumont is again in demand. the conventions established with each of the participants in the network session and the therapeutic tandem usefully frame the new disturbing context for the most vulnerable among them, by calming the fears of abandonment, or on the contrary of dictatorial control through this means of communication. a spontaneous energy flow appears as the homage 'at the windows' is paid every evening at 8 pm to the nursing staff. i too hit something, a shell casing from world war i (empty!)it reminds me of the spanish flu pandemicand as a drumstick, a saharan jewel offeredwell, well, well!by one of my former patients who went to the sahel to offer solidarity to women. it makes a rather high-pitched bell sound, somewhat close to the bells of the tibetan monks . . . everything blends into this positive energy. a neighbour who is ill with cancer is the most alert to beat the call of the neighbours . . . her care continues during this time. the calmness is conducive of reflection. what do i want to change in my life as a therapist? . . . nothing, other than taking more time for myself. sports, baking, tidying up, painting, talking . . . i miss my friends, but the family exchange is nicely intensifying. confinement slogans tirelessly spread their message, one week, two weeks, three weeks, we don't count the weeks anymore, time has changed value, the pace has slowed down. look, why don't i take the time to check my pension rights? no, i'd rather watch a good series . . . humanity in times of pandemic (humanidad en pandemia) therapists and patients living through times of pandemic have evolved in a context of threat and uncertainty. due to the regulations to avoid contagion, family members have been forced to stay in the same space for indefinite times. the personal and group impact of this dynamic unfolds in multiple dimensions and has an unsuspected scope. the experience of physical space has evolved as hours, days, weeks have passed. although at first it could be perceived as a break from the whirlwind of everyday life, the 'forced' stay has turned into a kind of narrowing of the limits; of the physical space, of the psychic/corporal world, relational, bonding. no matter how many people inhabit a place, the members resent the isolation and helplessness on many occasions. in some way, previous forms of relationship, ties and family, group, and social functioning have pointed out the dominant styles of behaviour in this type of closure (muñoz, 2019) . without external compensatory systems, which operate as sedatives of the sense and deniers of finitude, we observe how the first attachment style appears in a dynamic that goes through different levels depending on the global context and the verbal and non-verbal information that emerges from authority (bowlby, 1993) . groups with primarily disorganised attachments generate contexts where friction, punishment, and violence emerge quickly as a way to relieve anxiety, fear, and tension. when the primary attachments are associated with anxiety and ambivalence, the group is submerged in fear that spreads through networks infiltrating the psychocorporal world, facilitating extreme care behaviours alternated with reckless risk behaviours that increase fear and anxiety. systems with predominantly anxious-avoidant attachment tend to focus on demand and performance by amplifying effective control systems at the expense of body and emotions. these are subject to the dominance of reason, dissociating body and its messages controlling fear, anxietiy, and uncertainty. on the contrary, groups with predominantly secure attachments creatively and adaptively go through this turbulence at the pole of action, creating and recreating new realities and ways of living. then, the isolation gradually infiltrates the family system, so fear and emptiness take over the bonds, as a melody that silences with consumer products. therefore, an impossible gap associated with the absence of meaning and a deep fear of damage and death is attempted to be filled. so, time becomes a waiting time. simultaneously, we witness an institutional and organisational crisis with the ensuing collapse of credibility and trust. a massive disconnection of people who in this paralysis have lost their jobs confirms those premises about the hope and credibility violated, and although cognitively it is explainable emotionally and affectively, the experience is overwhelming. uncertainty, fear, and the experience of injustice increase in a context that is impossible to decode. on the other hand, teleworking has been a way of maintaining continuity of work and staying on the move. however, in many organisations, this system has forced workers to be permanently available online. for executive women workers, the demand has increased exponentially due to the exercise of multiple roles that overlap and require time, effort, and dedication. uncertainty in an emotional, relational, social, global context reduces security for people; groups, institutions, when faced with the threat, exacerbate control and defence mechanisms. they bring solutions that only increase the problem, generating fear and pain expressed in different ways. they deny mourning in the face of loss at all levels: stability, power, status, the lives of loved ones, and their own lives (sluzki, 1993) . and the body? often forgotten and uninhabited due to the predominance of the image, it becomes the repository of emotions that, given the context, are impossible to symbolise and integrate. raising these emotions to consciousness reminds us that we hurt ourselves in bonds and heal in them, so that it is possible to agree to feel enough fear for self-care and care for others. holding the bond of intimacy that the therapeutic space provides in this transit that emerges as a new context from the face-to-face to virtual, implies an opening to newness. in turn, group networks that met in transit rituals establishing contact, providing support, direction, and meaning when assisting life and death, have also been impacted and injured. however, the voice and face have enhanced as a contact image and company (sluzki, 1993) . the question of my being a therapist . . . being also a midwife refers me to processes and learning; my history and its multiple resonances weaved into a systemic psycho-dramatic tapestry that includes myself and humanity. i feel that we cross a threshold similar to labour, being delivered and giving birth, simultaneously, in a channel whose timelessness is felt in our bodies. we are leaving a womb that could no longer contain us. today by force of contractions, we remain at times with fear, compressed by narrow walls that adhere to the personal, group, social and human body, with fears of harm and death. simultaneously and in another polarity, with an unknown force and with the survival instinct to the maximum, we open the virtual space in search of the exit. ª 2020 australian association of family therapy where are we going? just like before we were born, it is a mystery; however, from another perspective i know that we will look to another territory, with keys, codes, and ways of survival different from what is known. a place where we will need to put into operation new approaches that, probably without much awareness, we have developed in this previous gestation process. these are bodily, personal, group, social, and of humanity. i feel that, as in any process, we may reach the other side crying, it is also possible that we remain detained in a space 'in-between,' without being able to advance. so, as humanity we are at risk; it is the essential trust, the conscience and bonding that sustains us to arrive someday at that 'other side. ' nowadays, for me to be a therapist is to be a midwife, creating contexts that, in the intimacy of psychotherapy, allow me to accompany in uncertainty, in fear, in the pain of losses, in silence and respect for the expression of grief. i trust that the strength of the bonds will allow us to be born to other unimaginable dimensions from the prisms in which we contact today. i only miss hugging my son and daughter. i carry with me the nostalgia and smell of their bodies. the loneliness of the therapist . . . my being a therapist cuts across the many roles i carry out. with maturity and conscience, the person of the therapist talks and integrates with my entire person. on one level, i feel lonely, but, on another, it is a joy to feel the strength of the bonds of systemic therapists around the world to reach out. this unique practice collection offers readers a glimpse into the professional and personal experiences and reflections of an international group of family and systemic therapists across the globe as they experience the first phase of the covid-19 pandemic. the world is navigating through unpredictable times. therapists need to 'be,' before they can 'do.' systemic therapists are able to heal and in turn support the healing of the families, couples, and individuals they work with through the process of reaching out to fellow therapists in shared experience. it is only then they can contemplate stepping into a next phase; the 'regenerative process' where they can rebuild their lives post-pandemic. there needs to be time to pose and consider; whether the familiar pre-pandemic 'normal' is the 'normal' that is desperately sought . . . or in fact whether this calls for the creation of new opportunities for social change. the pandemic illustrates the reality that society remains at its essence 'collectivist.' we are all in this together, as a collective humanity. it is evident humans are inter-dependent on one another. there is an inescapable inter-connectedness and relationship between systems, within the body, between one another; humanity cannot separate from the environment, just as therapists cannot separate from their families or fellow therapists. this crisis may assist therapists to rearrange the scale of values regarding what is important. beyond the interventions used, preservation of the relationship is what really matters. it seems ironic that an enforced need to 'stay apart' from one another (in order to stay alive), has birthed an invitation to be more human (in order to stay emotionally and relationally alive), and be closer to each other than ever before. this collection illustrates now more than ever the importance of looking at the 'macro' issues presenting for people and society from a systemic perspective. the more complex the issues, the more important they be considered and addressed through a systemic lens. approaching these complexities from a sequestered, individual perspective is reductionist, invalidating, unrealistic, but also disrespectful to other cultures. this present challenge also causes a questioning of the notion of permanence and certainty to give room to impermanence and uncertainty; while distressing, and unsettling, this provides opportunities. this is an unpredictable and crucial time. if there has ever been a need for systemic therapists and the 'world of systems' to advocate for systems change, this is the time. humanity is part of a system that can destroy it in a short time if it does not listen to the feedback that comes from the interaction with the other elements of that system. as the pathway to the 'other side' is navigated, there is a need to value context, culture, collaboration, and connectedness in order to combat isolation and trauma while enhancing unity. together we can begin to think about some of the implications and recommendations for family therapy practice and research in relation to covid-19. first, family and systemic therapists are in a key position to advise stakeholders such as governments and health departments in developing and implementing a response to the covid-19 pandemic. second, there are numerous advantages to understanding the effects of the pandemic through a systemic lens. it is unrealistic, illogical, and unscientific to imagine that complex issues like covid-19 can be considered simply by focusing on individuals. third, this suggests an integrated approach to the management of pandemic trauma and suicide prevention utilising 'systemic thinking' as a foundation. future collaborative research could focus on: the collective nature of trauma to consider the consequences of traumatic events shared by a 'social collective,' and how this may differ from 'interpersonal trauma'; mental health consequences that take into account the impact of pre-existing and co-existing mental health issues; the relational consequences of covid-19 in exploring whether collective traumas create greater resilience given the collective shared experience; further rigorous qualitative and phenomenological studies to capture the experiences of family therapists honouring different cultural backgrounds and languages. associate professor of psychology, subprogram in clinical psychology, department of psychology director of the paduan center of family therapy, academic of the milanese center of family therapy. email: mosconia1@gmail.com member ipscan (international society for prevention of child abuse and neglect il multi-linguaggio e il multi-tempo dell'amore: il lavoro con le coppie interculturali (the multi-language and the multi-time of love: work with intercultural couples). paper presented at the convegno residenziale apf 'il processo terapeutico. tempi e fasi della terapia familiare my story, your story: the role of culture and language in emotion expression of cross-cultural couples. the mi culture model reflection on aaft family therapy conference getting together with like minded people': a conference edition habla mi idioma? an exploratory review of working systemically with people from diverse cultures: an australian perspective children in the margins training the person of the therapist in structural family therapy mind and nature: a necessary unity el apego (attachment). barcelona: paid os treating complex traumatic stress disorders: an evidence-based guide revisione dei concetti di ipotizzazione, circolarit a, neutralit a: un invito alla curiosit a (hypothesizing, circularity, and neutrality revisited: an invitation to curiosity) autoethnography, personal narrative, reflexivity: researcher as subject hypnotherapy: an exploratory casework getting a kick out of you: the jazz taoist key to love the new normal: living with a transformed reality the helpers and the helped: viewing the mental health profession through the lens of love in action: an integrative approach to last chance couple therapy the tao of love: life lessons learned from laotzu and the way of life suicide risk and prevention during the covid-19 pandemic integrating a trauma lens into a family therapy framework: ten principles for family therapists the five stages of grief the way of life one service, many voices: enhancing consumer participation in a primary health service for multicultural women the use of self of the therapist families and family therapy v ınculo, percepci on y conciencia en la coordinaci on grupal: la persona del coordinador (link, perception and consciousness in group coordination: the person of the coordinator) g enogramme et inceste: tempo th erapeutique et tempo judiciaire, in i les g enogrammes aujourd'hui la clinique syst emique en mouvement quand la famille marche sur la tête: inceste, p edophilie, maltraitance (when the family walks on your head: incest, pedophilia, abuse) la fin des certitudes. temps, chaos et lois de la nature (the end of certainties. time, cahos and the laws of nature) how family therapy stole my interiority and was then rescued by open dialogue memory, trauma, and phantasmagoria in claudia llosa's 'la teta asustada paradosso e controparadosso. un nuovo modello nella terapia della famiglia a transazione schizofrenica (paradox and counterparadox. a new model in schizophrenic transaction family therapy) ipotizzazione, circolarit a, neutralit a: tre direttive per la conduzione della seduta (hypothesizing, circularity, neutrality: three guidelines for the conductor of the session) la red social: frontera de la pr actica sist emica observing systems the authors look forward to further systemic themed papers on the family therapy response to covid-19 such as focusing on the regenerative phase of the pandemic and the reporting of practice and practical responses. lyndon amorin-woods for assistance in preparation of the draft manuscript. key: cord-029880-mhmvc0kq authors: sy, charlle; bernardo, ezekiel; miguel, angelimarie; san juan, jayne lois; mayol, andres philip; ching, phoebe mae; culaba, alvin; ubando, aristotle; mutuc, jose edgar title: policy development for pandemic response using system dynamics: a case study on covid-19 date: 2020-07-29 journal: process integr optim sustain doi: 10.1007/s41660-020-00130-x sha: doc_id: 29880 cord_uid: mhmvc0kq the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) outbreak has burdened several countries. its high transmissibility and mortality rate have caused devastating impacts on human lives. this has led countries to implement control strategies, such as social distancing, travel bans, and community lockdowns, with varying levels of success. however, a disease outbreak can cause significant economic disruption from business closures and risk avoidance behaviors. this paper raises policy recommendations through a system dynamics modeling approach. the developed model captures relationships, feedbacks, and delays present in a disease transmission system. the dynamics of several policies are analyzed and assessed based on effectiveness in mitigating infection and the resulting economic strain. the ongoing covid-19 pandemic is raising unprecedented global health concerns because of its high infection and mortality potential. since the first case reported on december 30, 2019, the number of confirmed cases worldwide has grown at an alarming exponential rate (huang et al. 2020) , reaching hundreds of thousands being infected in different countries. as such, the world health organization (who) declares covid-19 a public health emergency at an international level . this spurred immediate action to identify, prevent, and control the transmission of this virus. similar precautions and strategies are suggested by experts for combatting covid-19. sohrabi et al. (2020) propose immediate diagnosis and isolation for patients with contact to the virus. xiao and torok (2020) similarly suggest limiting human-human interaction, identifying and isolating persons with exposure, and providing immediate care to those who have been infected. globally, each country has put up their own efforts against covid-19. china, as well as many other countries, imposed travel bans and community lockdowns, especially to and from the epicenter of the outbreak wuhan, china (hua and shaw 2020) . their strict governance has allowed them to "flatten the curve"; however, a second wave is expected because of their premature lifting of the lockdowns and travel ban . nonetheless, late detection allowed their people to travel internationally, leading to a global spread of the virus. singapore and south korea, although the latter initially saw a significant spike in cases because of virus transmission during religious gatherings, effectively address this issue through strict screening, contact tracing, and quarantine measures (gilbert et al. 2020 ). on the other hand, europe has become a hotspot for the covid-19 virus; infection and mortality cases soar in italy, spain, germany, and france, with case counts reaching hundreds of thousands per country. this may be attributed to delayed response, lack of rapid testing, and the high mobility of tourists around europe (the lancet 2020). for the same reasons, the united states of america (usa) has the most number of cases worldwide, having reached over 300,000 cases as of april 7, 2020 (who 2020). in south east asia, the philippines has the second most number of cases at 3660 confirmed cases as of april 7, 2020, closely following malaysia. as a response to covid-19, the philippine government implemented a travel ban of foreigners and a gradual implementation of enhanced community quarantine (comparable with lockdowns implemented in other countries). there have also been efforts to increase testing and quarantine capacities (department of health 2020). although vaccination is seen as an effective pharmaceutical-based mitigation strategy, existing vaccines may be ineffectual against novel virus strains (araz 2013) , such as the case in covid-19. unfortunately, effective vaccines and treatment for this virus are still under research and development . the persistence of an influenza pandemic can have a significant negative impact on an economy's productive capacity because of its crippling effect on labor supply depending on its morbidity and mortality rate. fundamental economic theory establishes that labor is required in conjunction with capital and natural resources for the production of valuable goods. additionally, this triggers a domino effect, wherein the loss in productivity of one sector would inevitably result in the succeeding customer sector to fail to meet their targets and orders. moreover, government policies, such as school closures and discouraging workers to attend their workplace, can increase worker absenteeism. however, this could be offset by the availability of informal care arrangements and the ability of the parents to work from home (keogh-brown 2014). due to the novelty of the situation, there had yet to be any formal evaluation of the success of online platforms for work in maintaining productivity. based on the performance of global supply chains, it is apparent that online platforms will fail to sustain the volume of commercial activity prior to the outbreak (ivanov 2020) . variations in the methods for delivering online education also indicate that universities have yet to converge on a best approach for this scenario, with some universities suspending classes completely and others persisting with online lectures. prior studies on using technology to deliver the online lectures cite difficulties due to lack of reliable internet connection, promoting student initiative and autonomy in learning, and the learning delays of adjusting to the technology (jowsey et al. 2020; cuaca dharma et al. 2017) . these indicate that, although quarantine is necessary to some extent to control the situation, extended quarantine is not an appropriate solution. furthermore, despite its unpredictability, there is evidence that suggests externalities such as fear-driven behavioral changes could potentially be the largest contributor to the economic costs of disease outbreaks. from the onset of an outbreak until a considerable period after events stabilize, people are likely to take precautionary actions on top of lockdowns and quarantines imposed, such as avoiding public transportation and international travels, avoiding congregative and entertainment events, and limiting shopping to essentials that would all aggregate to an increase in gdp loss in the first year of about 2% of gdp (keogh-brown 2014). thus, although public health is of highest priority, there is also the need to minimize the negative economic impact of pandemic outbreak responses (xiao and torok 2020) . mathematical and statistical models have been used to gain a better understanding of disease outbreaks and aid in emergency preparedness and response decision-making. these models have been integral in providing insights necessary for developing risk management strategies that minimize the transmission of disease outbreaks and other negative impacts, such as shortages in essential resources and economic declines. one particular methodology, system dynamics (sd) has been employed in disease outbreaks such as influenza. it is a simulation and modeling technique that is established in the application of strategic planning. it is a comprehensive systems perspective approach to map relationships present within complex systems and capturing any nonlinearities, feedback loops, and delays. all of this may provide useful insights towards designing and developing policy interventions (edaibat et al. 2017) . safarishahrbijari et al. (2017) combined system dynamics with particle filtering approach to predict future influenza outbreaks. their results outlined the improved accuracy and robustness of the prediction of future influenza outbreak, thus proposing the development of standardized guidelines to control and regulate the potential outbreak. araz (2013) proposed an integrated framework joining system dynamics with analytic hierarchy process (ahp) a decision-making tool for the assessment of public health strategies in an influenza outbreak capturing multiple stakeholder preferences. the results are aimed to aid the decision-makers on health strategies in the event that an influenza pandemic outbreak. vincenot and moriya (2011) adopted an integrated concept of system dynamics and individual-based modeling on the impact of resurgence of influenza pandemic. the results highlighted the behavior of spread over different scenarios outlining the significance of spatial disaggregation during outbreaks. currently, no studies have been found in the application of system dynamics on the covid-19 outbreak. to address this gap, this research is aimed to demonstrate the viability of system dynamics as a framework to understand and develop response strategies for disease pandemics such as covid-19. the general objective of the study is to develop a system dynamics model of covid-19 for different scenarios aiming to equip decision-makers with evidence-based judgment in the control of the outbreak. alternatives to the extended community quarantine are proposed using the sd framework. healthcare capacity, community control policies, and individual human behavior, among the other factors to be considered in this study, vary greatly in the magnitude and nature of their impact to the situation. yet, it is evident they are critical to pandemic response. under the sd framework, the relationships between these factors are organized into feedback loops, then are simulated as stocks and flows. however, it is important to note that the numbers or values obtained from sd are not predictive. instead, sd is used to demonstrate the trend and behavior of problem variables over time as influenced by feedbacks present in the system. the sd model developed in this study builds upon the basic susceptible-infectious-recovered (sir) model originally proposed by grassly and fraser (2008) . capturing the natural infection process, the number of infected persons, divided into the asymptomatic and symptomatic, will increase the amount of people exposed as shown in the causal loop diagram presented in fig. 1 . the values of these variables are influenced by actions taken to control the situation, such as through the quarantine of those infected, social distancing, travel bans, and personal isolation and protection strategies. conversely, the magnitude of the problem at various points in time will also influence the magnitude of the response to control the situation. likewise, a tendency for relaxation is encouraged by negative economic performance. 1 hypothetical and literature-based data were used during model implementation, especially because data is not always available and accurate to represent soft variables and highlevel relationships. sd framework was followed, wherein the model is validated against a reference model for the problem variable. the sd model is used to model and simulate the impact of various policies. as a preliminary study, effectiveness will be evaluated in terms of the number of infected people in a population, as this roughly reflects the duration that a country is experiencing a pandemic. figure 2 a and b show some of the common responses to the pandemic. the construction of additional hospitals and quarantine centers is one of the primary responses to a pandemic. while some increase in healthcare capacity is necessary, this will only address infection by a limited extent, and is infeasible for developing countries. another common policy is to encourage social distancing through either education, publicity, or the closure of establishments (fig. 2b) . this not only reduces the peak levels of infection but also extends the duration that a country is affected by the pandemic. some consideration may need to be given for the economy or out of necessity, by allowing for certain industries to continue their operations. even if we yield to economic pressures, overall infection under social distancing will be less than the baseline (fig. 2c) . similarly, by relaxing the social distancing measures for low-risk demographics, overall infection will still be less than the baseline (fig. 2d) . community quarantine is intended to starve the virus, by preventing the spread of the disease between households. depending on the duration of the quarantine period, this can merely delay the peak of the pandemic without significantly lowering overall infection (fig. 2e) . gradual quarantine lifting, i.e., reducing the stringency of quarantine over time, gives an opportunity for the economy to recover faster while keeping the potential for infection under control (fig. 2f) . as a final note, the policies may be implemented together with varying degrees of potency according to the resources and disposition of a particular community. the sd framework made it possible to see the interactions between policies in elemental form. this gives the policymaker more room to modify and improve the pre-existing methods for handling pandemics. first, it answers the question of which policies can be implemented together efficiently. some policies are complementary. precautionary measures, for instance, will reduce the chance for infection without introducing new consequences to the economy. there are also policies that are inefficient when implemented in basic form, yet have great potential after being modified. in particular, the gradual lifting of quarantine limits infection and also reduces the impairment of the economy resulting from complete quarantines. rather than investing much in a single policy, multiple policies can leverage on one another to improve the state of a country under the pandemic. from this point, further analysis can be conducted to identify the best parameters for implementation. impactful parameters include quarantine duration, additional healthcare capacity, and decisions on the quantity and characteristics of low-risk citizens, among other specifics that need to be defined when implementing a policy. by understanding the dynamics of the system, it becomes possible to fine-tune the solution through the parameters, without being too dependent on these values for impact. the covid-19 outbreak has proven to be a complex problem with effects rooted in public health and economics among some. it is crucial that deeper analysis and assessment frameworks are developed to support decision-making for risk management strategies and transmission control interventions that account for the interactions between participating sectors. based on initial modeling, the most effective strategies focus on avoiding exposure to the virus from happening in the first place; focusing on increasing healthcare capacities only delays the inevitable system collapse as its effectiveness assumes people getting infected first. system dynamics may also be utilized to gain better understanding of other aspects of the system, such as the management of healthcare operations in the face of an influenza pandemic. furthermore, other modeling techniques, such as optimization modeling, may be employed for resource allocation, especially in the face of scarce essential commodities and medical supplies. it may also be used to select between feasible policy alternatives and to operationalize their implementation based on various, and even conflicting, stakeholder objectives. conflict of interest the authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest. integrating complex system dynamics of pandemic influenza with a 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econ transmission dynamics and evolutionary history of 2019-ncov predictive accuracy of particle filtering in dynamic models supporting outbreak projections world health organization declares global emergency: a review of the 2019 novel coronavirus (covid-19) covid-19: learning from experience impact of the topology of metapopulations on the resurgence of epidemics rendered by a new multiscale hybrid modeling approach world health organization (2020) coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) situation report taking the right measures to control covid-19 beware of the second wave of covid-19 publisher's note springer nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations key: cord-333599-hl11ln2r authors: tulchinsky, theodore h.; varavikova, elena a. title: planning and managing health systems date: 2014-10-10 journal: the new public health doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-415766-8.00012-4 sha: doc_id: 333599 cord_uid: hl11ln2r health systems are complex organizations. they are often the largest single employer in a country, with expenditures of public and private money of 4–17 percent of gross domestic product. overall and individual facility management requires mission statements, objectives, targets, budgets, activities planning, human interaction, services delivery, and quality assurance. health organization involves a vast complex of stakeholders and participants, suppliers and purchasers, regulators and direct providers, and individual patients, and their decision-making. these include pyramidal and network organizations and ethical decision-making based on public interest, resource allocations, priority selection, and assurance of certain codes of law and ethical conduct. this chapter discusses how complex organizations work, with potential for application in health, and the motivations of workers and of the population being served. organization theory helps in devising methods to integrate relevant factors to become more effective in defining and achieving goals and missions. health systems are complex organizations and their management is an important concept in the new public health. health is a major sector of any economy and often employs more people in the industrialized countries than any other industry. health has complex networks of services and provider agencies, including funding through public or private insurance or through national health service systems. whether insurance is provided by the state or through private and public sources combined, skilled management is required at the macro-or national and the micro-or local level, including the many institutions that make up the system. management training of public health professionals and clinical services personnel is a requisite and not a luxury. planning and management are changing in the era of the new public health with advances in prevention and treatment of disease, population health needs, innovative technologies such as genetic engineering, new immunizations that prevent cancers and infectious diseases, prevention of non-communicable diseases, environmental and nutritional health, and health promotion to reduce risk factors and improve healthful living for the individual and the community. modern and successful public health also must address social, economic, and community determinants of health and the promotion of public policies and individual behaviors for health and well-being. the social capital and norms that promote cooperation among people are the basis of a "civil society" (i.e., the totality of voluntary, civic, and social organizations and institutions of a functioning society alongside the structures of governmental and commercial institutions). health systems are ideally knowledge-and evidence-based in using technologies available in medicine and the environment to promote the health and well-being of a population, including security against the effects of threatened terrorism, growing social isolation, and inequities in health. management in health can learn much from concepts of business management that have evolved to address the economic and human resource aspects of a health system at the macrolevel or an individual unit of service at the microlevel. the new public health is not contained within one organization, but rather reflects the collective efforts of national, state, regional, and local governments, many organizations in the public and non-governmental sectors, and finally efforts of individual or group advocates and providers and the public itself. the political level is crucial for adequate funding, legislation, and promotion of health-oriented policy positions and in public health management. the responsibility for health management is shared across all parts of society, including individuals, communities, business, and all levels of government. the new public health identifies and addresses community health risks and needs. planning is critical to the process of keeping a health system sustainable and adaptable and in creating adequate responses to new health threats. monitoring, measurement, and documentation of health needs are vital to design and adapt an effective program and to measure impact. data on the targeted issues must be accessible while protecting individual privacy. health is a hugely expensive and expansive complex of services, facilities, and programs provided by a wide range of professional and support service personnel making up one of the largest employers of any sector in a developed country. services are increasingly delivered by organized groups of providers. but all health systems operate in an environment of economic constraints, imposing a need to seek efficiency in the use of resources. how organizations function is of great importance not only for their economic survival, but also, and equally important, for the well-being of the clients and providers of care. an organization is two or more people working together to achieve a common goal. management is the process of defining the goals and making effective use of an organization to attain those goals. even very small units of a human organization require management. management of human resources is vital to the success of an organization, whether in a production or service industry. health systems may chapter 12 vary from a single structure to a network of many organizations. no matter how organizations are financed or operated, they require management. management in health care has much to learn from approaches to management in other industries. elements of theories and practices of profit-oriented sector management can be applied to health services even if they are operated as non-profit enterprises. physicians, nurses, and other health professionals will very likely be involved in the management of some part of the health care system, whether a hospital department, a managed care system, a clinic, or even a small health care team. at every level, management always means working with people, using resources, providing services, and working towards common objectives. health providers require preparation in the theory and practice of management. a management orientation can help providers to understand the wider implications of clinical decisions and their role in helping the health care system to achieve goals and targets. students and practitioners of public health need preparation in order to recognize that a health care system is more complex than the direct provision of individual services. similarly, policy and management personnel need to be familiar with both individual and population health needs and related care issues. health has evolved from an individual one-on-one service to complex systems organized within financing arrangements, mostly under government auspices. as a governmental priority, health may be influenced by political ideology, sometimes reflecting societal attitudes of the party in power and sometimes apparently at odds with its general social policy. following bismarck's introduction in germany in 1881 of national health insurance for workers and their families, funded by both workers and their employers, most countries in the industrialized world introduced variants of this national health plan. usually, this has been at the initiative of socialist or liberal political leadership, but conservative political parties have preserved national health programs once implemented. despite the new conservatism since the 1990s with its pre-eminent ideology of market forces, the growing roles for national, state, and local authorities in health have led to a predominantly government role in financing and overall responsibility for health care, even where there is no universal national health system, as in the usa. the uk's national health service (nhs), initiated by a labour government in 1948, has survived through many changes of government, including the conservative margaret thatcher period in which many national industries and services were privatized. health policy is a function of national (government) responsibility overall for health, but implementation is formulated and met at state, local, or institutional levels. the division of responsibilities is not always clear cut but needs to be addressed and revised both professionally and politically within constitutional, legal, and financial constraints. selection of the direction to be taken in organizing health services is usually based on a mix of factors, including the political view of the government, public opinion, and rational assessment of needs as indicated through epidemiological data, cost-benefit analysis, the experience of "good public health practice" from leading countries, and recommendations by expert groups. lobbying on the part of professional or lay groups for particular interests they wish to promote is part of the process of policy formulation and has an important role in the planning and management of health care systems. there are always competing interests for limited resources of funding, by personnel within the health field itself and in competition with other demands outside the health sector. the political level is vitally involved in health management in establishing and maintaining national health systems, and in determining the place of health care as a percentage of total governmental budgetary expenditures, in allocating funds among the competing priorities. these competing priorities for government expenditures include defense, roads, education, and many others, as well as those within the health sector itself. traditionally, there are competing priorities between the hospital and medical sector and the public health and community programs sector. a political commitment to health must be accompanied by allocation of resources adequate to the scope of the task. thus, health policy is largely determined by societal priorities and is not a prerogative of government, health care providers, or any institution alone. as a result of long struggles by trade unions, advocacy groups, and political action, well-developed market economies have come to accept health as a national obligation and essential to an economically successful and well-ordered society. this realization has led to the implementation of universal access systems in most of the industrialized countries. once initiated, national health systems require high levels of resources, because the health system is labor intensive with relatively high salaries for health care professionals. in these countries, health expenditures consume between 7 and nearly 18 percent of gross domestic product (gdp). some industrialized countries, notably those in the former soviet bloc, lacking mechanisms for advocacy, including consumer and professional opinion, tended to view health with a political objective of social benefits, and also as a "non-productive" consumer of resources rather than a producer of new wealth. as a result, budget allocations and total expenditures for health as a percentage of gdp were well below those of other industrialized countries (figure 12 .1). salaries for health personnel in the semashko system were low compared to industrial workers in the "productive" sectors. furthermore, industrial policy did not promote modern health-related industries, compared to the military or heavy industrial sectors. the former socialist countries of eastern europe which have joined the european union (eu) have gradually increased allocation to health from 5.44 percent of gdp in 1995 to 7.1 percent in 2010, while the pre-2004 members of the eu increased their expenditures from 8.5 percent of gdp to 10.6 percent. the average spend in the commonwealth of independent states (russia, ukraine, and others) increased from 5.6 percent in 1995 to 5.74 percent in 2010, and in the central asian republics (kazakhstan, uzbekistan, and others) from 4.8 percent in 1995 to 5.2 percent in 2010 (who health for all database, january 2013). however, russian health expenditure in 2011 was still only 6.2 percent of gdp and there is a lingering idea of health being a non-productive investment. the developing countries generally spend under 4 percent of gnp on health, because health is addressed as a relatively low political priority, and they depend very much on international donors for even the most basic of public health programs such as immunization. financing of health care and resource allocation requires a balance among primary, secondary, and tertiary care. economic assessment, monitoring, and evaluation are part of determining the health needs of the population. regulatory agencies are responsible for defining goals, priorities, and objectives for resulting services. targets and methods of achieving them provide the basis for implementation and evaluation strategies. planning requires written plans that include a statement of vision, mission objectives, target strategies, methods, and coordination during the implementation. designation and evaluation of responsibilities, resources to be committed, and participants and partners in the procedure are part of the continuous process of management. the dangers of taking a "wrong" direction may be severe, not only in terms of financial costs, but also in terms of high levels of preventable morbidity and mortality. health policy is often as imprecise a science as medicine itself. the difference is that inappropriate policy can affect the lives and well-being of very large numbers of people, as opposed to an individual being harmed by the mistake of one doctor. there may be no "correct" answer, and there are numerous controversies along the path. health policy remains more an "art" than the more quantitative and seemingly precise field of health economics. societal, economic, and cultural factors as well as personal habits have long been accepted as having an important impact on vulnerability to coronary heart disease. but other factors such as the degree of control over one's life, as suggested in studies of british civil servants, religiosity, and the effects of migration on families left behind are part of the social gradients and inequalities seen in many disease entities, with consequent excess morbidity and mortality in some contexts, such as in russia and ukraine. health policy, planning, and management are interrelated and interdependent. any set goal should be accompanied by planning how to attain it. a policy should state the values on which it is based, as well as specify sources of funding, planning, and management arrangements for its implementation. examination of the costs and benefits of alternative forms of health care helps in making decisions as to the structure and the content of health care services, both internal structures (within one organization) and external linkages (intersectoral cooperation with other organizations). the methods chosen to attain the goals become the applied health policy. the world health organization's (who's) 1977 health for all strategy was directed at the political level and intended to increase governmental awareness of health as a key component of overall development. to some degree it succeeded despite its expansive aspirations, and even after nearly 40 years, its objectives remain worthwhile even in well-developed health systems. within health, primary care was stressed as the most effective investment to improve the health status of the population. in 1993, the world bank's world development report adopted the health for all strategy and promoted the view that health is an important investment sector for general economic and social development. however, economic policies promoting privatization and deregulation in the health sector threaten to undermine this larger goal in countries with national health systems. in the usa, major steps are being taken to increase coverage of health insurance for all as the number of uninsured americans declined from 50 million people uninsured in 2010 to 48.6 million in 2011, edging down from 16.3 to 15.7 percent of the total population. further decline in the uninsured population is expected as the patient protection and affordable care act (ppaca, or "obamacare") comes into effect in the coming years, bringing many millions of americans into health insurance and meeting federal standards of fair practices such as eliminating exclusion for preexisting conditions by private insurers. the ppaca comes into effect on 1 january 2014 and will guarantee coverage for pre-existing conditions, and ensure that premiums cannot vary based on gender or medical history. it will subsidize the cost of coverage, and new state-based health insurance exchanges will help consumers to find suitable policies. it will introduce many preventive care measures into public and private insurance plans, and will promote efficiencies in the health systems including reduction in fraudulent claims and wasteful funding systems. all of this will require skilled management in the components of the health system (see chapters 10 and 13). in the new public health, health promotion, preventive care, and clinical care are all part of public health because the well-being of the individual and the community requires a coordinated effort from all elements of the health spectrum. establishing and achieving national health goals require planning, management, and coordination at all levels. the achievement of health advances depends on organizations and structured efforts to reach health goals such as those defined above, and more recently by the united nations (un) in the millennium development goals (mdgs) (see chapter 2), and requires some understanding of organizations and how they work. the study of organizations developed within sociology, but has gradually become a multidisciplinary activity involving many other professional fields, such as economics, anthropology, individual and group psychology, political science, human resources management, and engineering. organizations, whether in the public or private sector, exist within an external environment, and utilize their own structure, participants, and technology to achieve goals. for an organization to survive and thrive, it must adapt to the physical, social, cultural, and economic environment. organizations participating in health care establish the connection between service providers and consumers, with the goal of better health for the individual and the community. the factors for this include legislation, regulation, professionalism, instrumentation, medications, vaccines, education, and other modalities of intervention for prevention and treatment. the social structure of an organization may be formal (structured stability), natural (groupings reflecting common interests), or open (loosely coupled, interacting, and self-adjusting systems to achieve goals). formal systems are deliberately structured for the purposes of the organization. natural systems are less formal structures where participants work together collaboratively to achieve common goals defined by the organization. open systems relate elements of the organization to coalitions of partners in the external environment to achieve mutually desirable goals. in the health system, structures should focus on prevention and treatment of disease and improvement in health and well-being of society. the social structure of an organization includes values, norms, and roles governing the behavior of its participants. government, business, or service organizations, including health systems, require organizational structures, with a defined mission and set of values, in order to function. an organizational structure needs to be tailored to the size and complexity of the entity and the goals it wishes to achieve. the structure of an organization is the way in which it divides its labor into distinct tasks and coordinates them. the major organizational models, which are not mutually exclusive and may indeed be complementary, are the pyramidal (bureaucratic) and network structures. the bureaucratic model is based on a hierarchical chain of command with clearly defined roles. in contrast, the matrix or network organization brings together professional or technical people to work on specific programs, projects, or tasks. both are vital to most organizations to meet ongoing responsibilities and to address special challenges. some classic organization theory concepts help to set the base for modern management ideas as applied to the health sector. scientific management was pioneered by frederick winslow taylor . his work was pragmatic and based on empirical engineering, developed in observational studies carried out for the purpose of increasing worker, and therefore system, efficiency. taylor's industrial engineering studies of scientific management were based on the concept that the best way to improve worker productivity was by designing improved techniques or methods used by workers. this theory viewed workers as instruments to be manipulated by management, and assumed that efficient, rationally planned methods would produce better industrial results and industrial peace as the tasks of managers and workers would be better defined. time and motion studies analyzed work tasks to seek more efficient methods of work in factories. motivation of workers was seen to be related to payment by piecework and economic self-interest to maximize productivity. taylor sought to improve the productivity of each worker and to make management more efficient in order to increase earnings of employers and workers. he found that the worker was more efficient and productive if the worker was goal oriented rather than task oriented. this approach dominated organization theory during the early decades of the twentieth century. resistance to taylor's ideas came from both management and labor; the former because it seemed to interfere with managerial prerogatives and the latter because it expected the worker to function at top efficiency at all times. however, taylor's work had a lasting influence on the theory of work and organizations. the traditional pyramidal bureaucratic organization is classically seen in the military and civil services, but also in large-scale industry, where discipline, obedience, and loyalty to the organization are demanded, and individuality is minimized. this form of organization was analyzed by sociologist max weber between 1904 and 1924. leadership is assigned by higher authority, and is presumed to have greater knowledge than members lower down in the organization. this form of organization is effective when the external and internal environments, the technology, and functions are relatively well defined, routine, and stable. the pyramidal system (figure 12 .2) has an apex of policy and executive functions, a middle level of management personnel and support staff, and a base of the people who produce the output of the organization. the flow of information is generally one way, from the bottom to the top level, where decisions are made for the detailed performance of duties at all levels. lateralizing the information systems so that essential data can be shared to help staff at the middle and field or factory-floor levels of management is generally discouraged because this may promote decentralized rather than centralized management. even these types of organization have increasingly come to emphasize small-group loyalty, leadership initiative, and self-reliance. the bureaucratic organization has the following characteristics: l there is a fixed division of labor with a clear jurisdiction and based on assignments, which are subject to change by the leader. l there is a hierarchy of offices, with each lower functionary controlled and supervised by a higher one. employment is viewed as a tenured career for officials, after an initial trial period. the bureaucratic system, based on formal rationality, structure, and discipline, is widely used in production, service, and governmental agencies, including military and civilian departments and agencies. health systems, like other organizations, are dynamic and require continuous management, adjustment, and systems control. continuous monitoring and feedback, evaluation, and revision help to meet individual and community needs. the input-process-output model (figure 12 .3) depends on feedback systems to make the administrative or educational changes needed to keep moving towards the selected objectives and targets. organizations use resources or inputs that are processed to achieve desired results or outputs. the resource inputs are money, personnel, information, and supplies. process is the accumulation of all activities taken to achieve the results intended. output, or outcome, is the product, its marketing, its reputation and quality, and profit. in a service sector such as health, output or impact can be measured in terms of reduced morbidity and/or mortality, improved health, or number of successfully treated and satisfied patients at affordable costs. the management system provides the resources and organizes the process by which it hopes to achieve the established goals. program implementation requires systematic feedback for the process to work effectively. when targets are set and strategy is defined, resources, whether new or existing, are placed at the service of the new program. management is then responsible for using the resources to achieve the intended targets. the results are the outcome or output measures, which are evaluated and fed back to the input and process levels. health systems consist of many subsystems, each with an organization, leaders, goals, targets, and internal information systems. subsystems need to communicate within themselves, with peer organizations, and with the macro (health) system. leadership style is central to this process. the surgeon as the leader of the team in the operating room depends on the support and judgment of other crucial people on the team, such as anesthesiologists, operating room nurses, pathologists, radiologists, and laboratory services, all of whom lead their own teams. hospital and public health directors cannot function without a high degree of decentralized responsibility and a creative team approach to quality development of the facility. health systems management includes analysis of service policy, budget, decision-making in policy, as well as operation, regulation, supervision, provision, maintenance, ethical standards, and legislation. policy formulation involves a set of decisions made in pursuit of a course of action for achieving selected health targets, such as those in the mdgs or continuing to update healthy people 2020 health targets in the usa (see chapter 2). cybernetics, a term coined by norbert wiener, refers to systems or organizations which are dependent on each other to function, and whose interdependence requires flexibility of response. cybernetics gained wide credence in engineering in the early 1950s, and feedback systems became part of standard practice of all modern management systems. its later transformations appeared in operating service systems, as information for management. application of this concept is entering the health sector. rapid advances in computer technology, by which personal computers have access to internet systems and large amounts of data, have already enhanced this process. in mechanistic systems, the behavior of each unit or part is constrained and limited; in organic systems, there is more interaction between parts of the system. the example used in figure 12 .4 is the use of a thermostat to control the temperature and function of a heater according to conditions in the room. this is also described as a feedback system. cybernetics opens up new vistas on the use of health information for managing the operation of health systems. a database for each health district would allow assessment of current epidemiological patterns, with appropriate comparisons to neighboring districts or regional, state, and national patterns. data would need to be processed at state or national levels in comparable forms for a broad range of health status indicators. furthermore, the data should be prepared for online availability to local districts in the form of current health profiles. thus, data can be aggregated and disaggregated to meet the management needs of the service, and may be used to generate real targets and measure progress towards meeting them. a geographic information system may demonstrate high rates of a disease in a region due to local population risk factors, and thus become the basis for an intervention program. in the health field, the development of reporting systems based on specific diseases or categories has been handicapped by a lack of integrative systems and a geographic reporting approach. the technology of computers and the internet should be used to process data systems in real time and in a more user-friendly manner. this would enable local health authorities and providers to respond to actual health problems of the communities. health is a knowledge-based service industry, so that knowledge management and information technology are extremely important parts of the new public health, not only in patient care systems in hospitals, but also in public health delivery systems in the community, school, place of work, and home. mobilization of evidence and experience of best practices for policies and management decisionmaking is a fundamental responsibility of health leaders. the gap between information and action is wide and presents an ethical as well as a political challenge. regions with the most severe health problems lack trained personnel in assessment and exploitation of current state-of-the-art practices and technology in many practical public health fields, including immunization policy and in management of risk factors for stroke. knowledge and evidence are continuously evolving, but the capacity to access and interpret information is commonly poorly implemented in many countries so that very large numbers of people die of preventable diseases even when there are, overall, sufficient resources to address the challenges. international guidelines are vital to help countries to adopt current standards and make use of the available knowledge for public policy. political support and openness to international norms are crucial to this process of technology diffusion and building the physical and human resource infrastructure needed to achieve better population health with current best practices. development of health standards in low-income countries is progressing but is seriously handicapped by low levels of funding, lack of emphasis on training sufficient and appropriate human resource personnel and administrative support to promote measures which can save millions of lives. in high-income countries, the slow adoption of best international health standards can have harsh effects on population health, such as in the long delay in adopting national health insurance in the usa. in the european context, the eu has failed to adopt a harmonized recommended immunization program, which is badly needed for the new and potential members, as well as the older member countries. in countries of the former socialist bloc, mortality rates from stroke and coronary heart disease are slowly declining but remain two to four times higher than in countries of western europe (see chapter 5). systems management requires access to and the use of knowledge to bridge these gaps. adoption and adaptation of knowledge to address local problems are essential in a globalized world, if only to prevent the international spread of threatened pandemics or adoption of unhealthy lifestyles (diet, smoking, and lack of exercise) to middle-income countries, which are developing a growing middle class alongside massive poverty. the application of knowledge and experience that has been successful in leading countries can foster innovation and create experience that may generate a local renewal process. management is crucial to address the complex "strategy areas for improving performance of health organizations: standards and guidelines, organizational design, education and training, improved process, technology and tool development, incentives, organizational culture, and leadership and management" (bradley et al., 2012) . managing a knowledge-based service industry or facility relies on leadership, collaboration to realize the potential of technology, professional skills, and social capital to the address the health problems faced by all countries. the management of resources to achieve productivity and measurable success has been characterized and accompanied by the development of systems of organizing people to create solutions to problems or to innovate towards defined objectives. operations research is a concept developed by british scientists and military personnel in search of solutions for specific problems of warfare during world wars i and ii. the approach was based on the development of multidisciplinary teams of scientists and personnel. the development of the anti-submarine detection investigation committee for underwater detection of submarines during world war i characterized and pioneered this form of research. the famous bletchley park enigma code-breaking success in britain and the manhattan project, in which the usa assembled a powerful research and development team which produced the atomic bomb, are prime world war ii examples. team-and goal-oriented work was very effective in problem solving under the enormous pressure of wartime needs. it also influenced postwar approaches to developmental needs in terms of applied science in such areas as the aerospace and computer industries. the computer hardware and software industries are characterized by innovation conceived and developed through informal working groups with a high level of individual competence, peer group dynamism, and commitment to problem solving. thus, the "nerds" of macintosh and microsoft beat the "suits" of ibm in innovation and introduction of the personal computer. similar startup groups, such as google and facebook, successfully took the internet to startling new levels of global applications, showing the capacity of innovation from california's silicon valley and its counterparts in other places in the usa and worldwide. in the health field, innovation in organization developed prepaid group practice which became the health maintenance organization (hmo), and later the managed care organization (mco), now a major, if controversial, factor in health care provision in the usa. other examples may be found in multidisciplinary research teams working on vaccines or pharmaceutical research, and in the increasingly multidisciplinary function of hospital departments and especially highly interdependent intensive care or home care teams. the business concept of management by objectives (mbo), pioneered in the 1960s, has become a common theme in health management. mbo is a process whereby managers of an enterprise jointly identify its goals, define each individual's areas of responsibility in terms of the results expected, and use these measures as guides for operating the unit and assessing the contributions of its members. the common goals and then the individual unit goals must be established, as well as the organizational structure developed to help achieve these goals. the goals may be established in terms of outcome variables, such as defined targets for reduction of infant or maternal mortality rates. goals may also be set in terms of intervening or process variables, such as achieving 95 percent immunization coverage, prenatal care attendance, or screening for breast cancer and mammography. achievements are measured in terms of relevancy, efficiency, impact, and effectiveness. the mbo approach has been subject to criticism in the field of business management because of its stress on mechanical application of quantitative outcome measures and because it ignores the issue of quality. this approach had great influence on the adoption of the objective of "health for all" by the who, and on the us department of health and human services' 1979 health targets for the year 2000, later as healthy people 2010, and now, based on these experiences and new evidence, renewed as healthy people 2020. targeting diseases for eradication may contribute to institution building by developing experience and technical competence to broaden the organizational capacity. however, categorical programs or target-oriented programs can detract from the development of more comprehensive systems approaches. addressing the mdgs of reducing child and maternal mortality is at odds to some extent with targeting poliomyelitis for eradication and reliance on national immunization days, which distract planning and resource allocation for the buildup of the essential public health infrastructure for the basic immunization system so fundamental to child health. immunization and human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) control draw the major part of donor resources in developing countries, while education for strengthening human resources and infrastructure draw less donor attention. a balance between comprehensive and categorical approaches requires very skilled management. the mdgs agreed to by the un in 2001 as targets for the year 2015 provide a set of measurable objectives and a formula for international aid and for national development planning to help the poorest nations, with the wealthy nations providing aid, education, debt relief, and economic development through fairer trade practices. they are now being reviewed for extension to 2020 based on experience to date, with successes and failures, and recognizing the vital importance of non-communicable diseases as central to the health burden of low-and middleincome countries. management is the activity of coordinating and integrating organizational resources, including people, money, materials, time, and space. the purpose is to achieve defined/ stated objectives as effectively and efficiently as possible. whether in terms of producing goods and profits or in delivering services effectively, management deals with human motivation and behavior because workers are the key to achieving goals. knowledge and motivation of the individual client and the community are also essential for achieving good health. thus, management must take into account the knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, and practices of the consumer as much as or more than those of the people working within the system, as well as the general cultural and knowledge level in the society, as reflected in the media, political opinions, and organizations addressing the issues. management, like medicine, is both a science and an art. the application of scientific knowledge and technology in medicine involves both theory and practice. similarly, management practice involves elements of organizational theory, which, in turn, draws on the behavioral and social sciences and quantitative methodologies. sociology, psychology, anthropology, political science, history, and ethics contribute to the understanding of psychosocial systems, motivation, status, group dynamics, influence, power, authority, and leadership. quantitative methods including statistics, epidemiology, survey methods, and economic theory are also basic to development of systems concepts. comparative institutional analysis helps principles of organization and management to develop, while philosophy, ethics, and law are part of understanding individual and group value systems. organizational theory, a relatively new discipline in health, as an academic study of organizations, addresses health-related issues using the methods of economics, sociology, political science, anthropology, and psychology. the application of organizational theory in health care has evolved and become an integral part of training for, and the practice of, health administration. related practical disciplines include human resources, and industrial and organizational psychology. translation of organizational theory into management practice requires knowledge, planning, organization, mobilization of professional and other staff support for evidence-based best practices, assembly of resources, motivation, monitoring and control. health organizations have become more complex and costly over time, especially in their mix of specializations in science, technology, and professional services. organization and management are particularly crucial for successful application of the principles of the new public health, as it involves integration of traditionally separate health services. delegation of responsibilities in health systems, such as in intensive care units, is fundamental to success in patient care, with nurses taking increasing responsibility for the management of the severely ill patient suffering from multiple system failure. delegation or devolution of health care responsibilities to non-medical practitioners has been an ongoing development affecting nurse practitioners, physician assistants, paramedics, community health workers and others, as discussed in chapter 14. it is a vital process to provide needs not met by physicians because of shortages and inappropriate location or specialty preferences that leave primary care or other medical specialties unable to meet community and patient needs. elton mayo of the harvard school of business carried out a series of observational studies at the hawthorne, illinois, plant of the western electric company between 1927 and 1932. mayo and his industrial engineer, along with psychologist colleagues, made a major contribution to the development of management theory. mayo began with industrial engineering studies of the effect of increased lighting on production at an assembly line. this was followed by other improvements in working conditions, including reduced length of the working day, longer rest periods, better illumination, color schemes, background music, and other factors in the physical environment. these studies showed that production increased with each of these changes and improvements. however, the researchers discovered, to their surprise, that production continued to increase when the improvements were withdrawn. furthermore, in a control group where conditions remained the same, productivity also grew during the study period. these results led mayo to conclude that the performance of workers improved because of a sense that management was interested in them, and that worker participation contributes to improved production. traditionally, industrial management viewed employees as mechanistic components of a production system. previous theory was that productivity was a function of working conditions and monetary incentives. what came to be known as the hawthorne effect showed the importance of social and psychological factors on productivity. formal and informal social organizations among management and employees were recognized as key elements in productivity, now called industrial humanism. research methods adapted from the behavioral sciences contributed to scientific studies in industrial management. traditional theories of the bureaucratic model of organization and management were modified by the behavioral sciences. this led to the emergence of the systems approach, or scientific analysis to analyze complex structures or organizations, taking into account the mutually interdependent elements of activities, interactions, and interpersonal relationships between management and workers. some revisits to the hawthorne studies suggest that the data do not support the conclusions, and offer a different interpretation. one is that informal groups such as workers on a production line themselves set standards for work which assert an informal social control outside the authority system of the organization. the informal cohesive group can thus control the norms of the amount of work acceptable to the group, i.e., not "too much" and not "too little". others point out that the effects were temporary and that there were extraneous factors, but the added value of the hawthorne effect remains part of the history of and had a culturechanging effect on management theory. the hawthorne effect in management is in some ways comparable to the placebo effect in clinical research and health care practice. it is also applied to clinical practice, whereby medical care provided by doctors is measured for specific "tracer conditions" to assess completeness of care according to current clinical guidelines. review of clinical records has been shown to be a factor in improving performance by doctors in practice, such as in treatment of acute myocardial infarction, management of hypertension, or completeness of carrying out preventive procedures such as screening for cancer of the cervix, breast, or colon (see chapters 3 and 15). awareness of being studied is a factor in improved performance or response to an intervention. studies of clinical practice-based research or public health interventions need to consider whether different types of studies and outcomes are more or less susceptible to the hawthorne effect (fernald et al., 2012 ). abraham maslow's hierarchy of human needs made an important contribution to management theory. maslow was an american psychologist, considered "the father of humanism" in psychology. maslow defined a prioritization of human needs (figure 12 .5), starting with those of basic physical survival; at higher levels, human needs include social affiliation, self-esteem, and self-fulfillment. others in the hierarchy include socialization and self-realization; later revisions include cognitive needs. the survival needs of an employee include a base salary and benefits, including health insurance and pension; the safety and security needs include protection from injury, toxic exposure or excess stress; social needs at work include an identity, pride, friendships, union solidarity, company social activities and benefits; esteem and recognition include job titles, awards, and financial rewards for achievement by individuals, groups, or all employees; and self-actualization includes promotion to more challenging jobs with benefits, both financial and in terms of recognition. this concept is important in terms of management because it identifies human needs beyond those of physical and economic well-being. it relates them to the social context of the work environment with needs of recognition, satisfaction, self-esteem, and self-fulfillment. maslow's conclusions opened many positive areas of management research, not only in the motivation of workers in production and service industries, but also in the motivation of consumers. maslow's hierarchy of human needs contributed to the idea that workers' sense of well-being is important to management. his theories played an important role in application of sociological theory to client behavior, just as the topic of personal lifestyle in health became a central part of public health and clinical management of many conditions, such as in risk factor reduction for cardiovascular diseases. this concept fits well with the epidemiological studies referred to in the introduction, such as those showing strong relationships with sociopolitical factors as well as socioeconomic conditions. theory x-theory y (table 12 .1), developed by clinical psychologist and professor of management douglas mcgregor in the 1960s, examined two extremes in management assumptions about human nature that ultimately affect the operations of organizations. organizations with centralized decision-making, a hierarchical pyramid, and external control are based on certain concepts of human nature and motivation. mcgregor's theory, drawing on maslow's hierarchy of needs, describes an alternative set of assumptions that credit most people with the capacity for self-direction. traditional approaches to organization and management stress direction and external control. theory x assumes that workers are lazy, unambitious, uncreative, and motivated only by basic physiological needs or fear. theory y places stress on integration and self-control. this model provides a more optimistic leadership model, emphasizing management development programs and promoting human potential, assuming that, if properly motivated, people can be self-directed and creative at work, and that the role of management is to unleash this potential in workers with performance appraisal. many other theories of motivation and management have been developed to explain human behavior and how to utilize inherent skills to produce a more creative work environment, reduce resistance to change, reduce unnecessary disputes, and ultimately create a more effective organization. variants of the human motivation approach in management carried the concept further by examining industrial organization to determine the effects of management practices on individual behavior and personal growth within the work environment. they describe two contrasting models of workforce motivation. theory x assumes that management produces immature responses on the part of the worker: passivity, dependence, erratically shallow interests, shortterm perspective, subordination, and lack of self-awareness. in contrast, at the other end of the immaturity-maturity spectrum was the mature worker, with an active approach, an independent mind capable of a broad range of responses, deeper and stronger interests, a long-term perspective, and a high level of awareness and self-control. this model has been tested in a variety of industrial settings, showing that giving workers the opportunity to grow and mature on the job helps them to satisfy more than basic survival needs and allows them to use more of their potential in accomplishing organizational goals. this model became widely influential in human resource management theory of organizational behavior, organizational communication, and organizational development, and in the practical management of business and service enterprises. in the motivation to work (1959) , us clinical psychologist frederick herzberg wrote of his motivationhygiene theory. he developed this theory after extensive studies of engineers and accountants, examining what he called hygiene factors (i.e., administrative, supervisory, monetary, security, and status issues in work settings). his motivating factors included achievement, recognition of accomplishment, challenging work, and increased responsibility with personal and collective growth and development. he proved that the motivating factors had a substantial positive effect on job satisfaction. these human resource theories of management helped to change industrial approaches to motivation from "job enrichment" to a more fundamental and deliberate upgrading of responsibility, scope, and challenge of work, by letting workers develop their own ways of achieving objectives. even when the theories were applied to apparently unskilled workers, such as plant janitors, the workers changed from an apathetic, poorly performing group into a cohesive, productive team, taking pride in their work and appearance. this approach gave members of the team the opportunity to meet their human self-actualization needs by taking greater responsibility for problem solving, and it resulted in less absenteeism, higher morale, and greater productivity with improved quality. rensis likert, with mcdougal and herzberg, helped to pioneer the "human relations school" in the 1960s, applying human resource theory to management systems and styles. likert classified his theory into four different systems, as follows. l system 1 -management has no confidence or trust in subordinates, and avoids involving them in decisions and goal setting, which are made from the top down. management is task oriented, highly structured, and authoritarian. fear, punishment, threats, and occasional rewards are the principal methods of motivation. worker-management interaction is based on fear and mistrust. informal organizations within the system often develop that lead to passive resistance of management and are destructive to the goals of the formal organization. l system 2 -management has a condescending relationship with subordinates, with some degree of trust and confidence. most decisions are centralized, but some decentralization is permitted. rewards and punishments are used for motivation. informal organizations become more important in the overall structure. l system 3 -management places a greater degree of trust and confidence in subordinates, who are given a greater degree of decision-making powers. broad policy remains a centralized function. l system 4 -management is seen as having complete confidence in subordinates. decision-making is dispersed, and communication flows upward, downward, and laterally. economic rewards are associated with achieving goals and improving methods. relationships between management and subordinates are frequent and friendly, with a sense of teamwork and a high degree of mutual respect. case studies showed that a shift in management from likert system 1 towards system 4 radically changed the performance of production, cut manufacturing costs, reduced staff turnover, and increased staff morale. furthermore, workers and managers both shared a concern for the quality of the product or service and the competitiveness and success of their business. the health industry includes highly trained professionals and paraprofessional workers who function as a team with a high degree of cohesion, mutual dependence, and autonomy, such as a surgical or an emergency department team. the network, or task-oriented working group, is basically a more democratic and participatory form of organization meant to elicit free interchange of concerns and ideas. this is a more organic form of organization, best suited to be effective for adaptation when the environment is complex and dynamic, when the workforce is largely professional, and when the technology and system functions change rapidly. complexities and technological change require information, expertise, flexibility, and innovation, strengths best promoted in free exchange of ideas in a mutually stimulating environment. in a network organization, leadership may be formal or informal, assigned to a particular function, which may be temporary, medium term, or permanent, to achieve a single defined task or develop an intersectoral program. the task force is usually for a short-term specific assignment; a working group, often for a medium-term project, such as integrating services of a region; and a committee for permanent tasks such as monitoring an immunization program. significant advantages of this form of organization are the challenge and the sharing of information and responsibility, which give professionals responsibility and job satisfaction by providing the opportunity to demonstrate their creativity. members of the task force may each report within their own pyramidal structure, but as a group they work to achieve the assigned objective. they may also be interdisciplinary or interagency working groups to review the state of the art in this particular issue as documented in reports and professional literature, and to coordinate activities, review previous work, or plan common future activities. an ongoing network organization may be a government cabinet committee to coordinate government policy and the work of various government departments, or a joint chiefs of staff to coordinate the various armed services. this approach is commonly used for task groups wherein interdisciplinary teams of professionals meet to coordinate functions of a department in a hospital, or where a multidisciplinary group of experts is established with the specified task of a technical nature. network organizational activity is part of the regular functions of a health professional. informal networking is a day-to-day activity of a physician in consultations with colleagues and also a part of more formalized network groups. the hospital department must, to a large extent, function as a network organization with different professionals working as a team more effectively than would be possible in a strictly authoritarian pyramidal model. a ministry of health may need to develop a joint working group with the ministry of transport, the police, and those responsible for standards of motor vehicles to seek ways to reduce road accident deaths and injuries. if a measles eradication project is envisioned, a multidisciplinary and multiorganizational team, or a network, should be established to plan and carry out the complex of tasks needed to achieve the target (figure 12.6) . in a public health context, a task group to determine how to reduce obesity rates in school-aged children, or to eradicate measles locally, might be chaired by the deputy chief medical officer or senior health promotion person; if the project is reduction of obesity among school children, the lead agency may be the department of education, perhaps jointly with the local department of health; if reduction in road traffic deaths is the topic, the lead may be the police department with participation of emergency transportation and hospital emergency room lead personnel. members may include the chief district nurse, an administrative and budget officer, a pharmacist, the chief of the pediatric department of the district hospital, a primary school administrator, a health educator, a medical association representative, the director of laboratories, the director of the supply department, a representative of the department of education, representatives of voluntary organizations interested in the topic, and others as appropriate. most organizational structures are mixed, combining elements of both the formal pyramidal and the less structured network structure with a task-oriented mandate. it is often difficult for a rigid pyramidal structure to deal with parallel bodies in a structured way, so the network approach is necessary to establish working relations with outside bodies to achieve common goals. a network is a democratic functional grouping of those professionals and organizations needed to achieve a defined target, sometimes involving people from many different organizations. the terms of reference of the working group are crucial to its function as well as its composition, time-frame, and access to relevant information. the application of this concept is increasingly central in health care organization as multilevel health systems evolve in the form of managed care or district health systems. these are vertically integrated management systems involving highly professional teams and units whose interdependence for patient care and financial responsibility are central elements of the new public health. in the usa during world war ii, w. edwards deming, a physicist and statistician, developed a system of economic and statistical methods of quality control in production industries. following the war, deming was invited to teach in japan and moved from the university to the level of industrial management. japanese industrialists adopted his principles of management and introduced quality management into all industries, with astonishingly successful results within a decade. the concept, later called total quality management (tqm), has since been adopted widely in production and service industries. in the deming approach to company management, quality is the top priority and is the key responsibility of management, not of the workers. if management sets the tone and involves the workers, quality goes up, costs come down, and both customer satisfaction and loyalty increase. having their ideas listened to, and avoiding a punitive inspection approach, enhances the pride of the workers. it is the responsibility of leadership to remove fear and build mutual participation and common interest. training is one of the most important investments of the organization. the differences between traditional management and the tqm approach are shown in boxes 12.1 and 12.2. in societies with growing economies, the role of an educated workforce becomes greater as information technology and services, such as health, become larger parts of the economy and require professionalism and self-motivating workers. the tqm approach integrates the scientific management and human relations approaches by giving workers credit for intellectual capacity and expects them to use it to analyze and improve the tasks they perform. even more, this approach expects workers at all levels to contribute to better quality in the process of design, manufacture, and even marketing of the product or the service. the tqm ideas were revolutionary and successful when applied in business management in production industries. the tqm concept is much in discussion in the service industries. the who has adapted tqm to a model called continuous quality improvement (cqi), with the stress on mutual responsibilities throughout a health system for quality of care. the application of tqm and cqi approaches is discussed in chapter 15, including the external regulatory and self-development tqm approaches. in the health sector, issues such as prevention of health facility-acquired infections require staff dedicated to promoting a culture of cleaning, frequent and thorough hand washing, sterilization, isolation techniques, intravenous and intratracheal catheter and tube care technique, and immunization of hospital personnel. these and many other crossdisciplinary measures promote patient safety and prevent the costly and frequently deadly effects of serious respiratory or urinary tract injection acquired in hospitals or other health care facilities. human behavior is individual but takes place in a social context. changes to individual behavior are needed to reduce risk factors for many diseases. change can be threatening; it requires alteration, substitution, transformation, or modification of purposes, procedures, methods, or style. the implementation of plans usually requires some change, which often meets resistance. the resistance to change may be professional, technical, psychological, political, emotional, or a mix of all of these. the manager of a health facility or service has to cope with change and gather the support of those involved to participate in creating or implementing the change effectively. the behavior of the worker in a production or service industry is vital to the success of the organization. equally important is the behavior of the purchaser or consumer of the product or service. diagnosing organizational problems is an important skill to bring to leadership in health systems. even more important is the ability to identify and alter the variables that require change and adaptation to improve the performance of the organization. high expectations are essential to produce high performance and improved standards of service or productivity. conversely, low expectations not only lead to low performance, but produce a downward spiraling effect. this applies not only within the organization, but to the individuals and community served, l judgment, punishment, and reward for above-or belowaverage performance destroy teamwork essential for quality production. l work with suppliers to improve quality and costs. l profits are generated by loyal customers -running a company for profit alone is like driving a car by looking in the rearview mirror. whether in terms of purchase of goods produced or in terms of health-related behavior. people often resist change because of fear of the unknown. participation in the process of defining problems, formulating objectives, and identifying alternatives is needed to bring about changes. change in organizational performance is complex, and this is the test of leadership. similarly, change at the individual level is essential to achieve the goals of the group, whether this is in terms of the functioning of a health care service unit, such as a hospital, or whether it is an individual's decision to change from smoking to non-smoking status. the health of both an individual and a population depends on the individual health team member's motivation and experience. the behavior of the individual is important to his or her personal and community health. even small steps in the direction of a desirable change in behavior should be rewarded as soon as possible (i.e., reinforcing positive performance in increments). behavior modification is based on the concept that change of behavior starts with the feelings and attitudes within the individual, but can be influenced by knowledge, peer pressure, media coverage, and legislative standards. change involves a number of elements to define a current or previous starting point: change in behavior is vital in the health field: in the organization, in the community, in individual behavior, and in societal regulation and norms. the health belief model (chapter 2) is widely influential in psychology and health promotion. the belief intervention approach involves programs meant to reduce risk factors for a public health problem. it may require change in the law and in organizational behavior, with involvement and feedback to the people who determine policy, those who manage services, and the community being served. obesity in school-aged children is being fought by many measures including healthier menus and banning the sale of high sugar drinks on school property. high cholesterol is being fought on many fronts including dietary change and banning the use of transfats in food processing. deaths from bulimia are not uncommon and may stem from teenage identification of beauty with ultrathin body image. banning television and modeling agencies from using models with a very low body mass index is an intervention in advertising which encourages harmful practices that are a danger to health and life. banning cigarette advertising and smoking in public places promotes behavioral change, as does raising the taxes on cigarettes. gun control laws are meant to prevent disturbed individuals or political fanatics having easy access to firearms to commit mass murder. strict enforcement of drinking and driving laws can prevent drunk driving and reduce road traffic deaths (see chapter 15). in the 1980s, major industries in the usa were unable to compete successfully with the japanese in the consumer electronics and automobile industries. management theory began to place greater emphasis on empowerment as a management tool. the tqm approach stresses teamwork and involvement of the worker in order to achieve better quality of production. comparatively, empowerment went further to involve the worker in operation, quality assessment, and even planning of the design and production process. results in production industries were remarkable, with increased efficiency, less absenteeism, and greater searching for ideas to improve quality and quantity of production, with the worker as a participant in the management and production process. the concept of empowerment entered the service industries with the same rationale. the rationale is that improvements in quality and effectiveness of service require the active physical and emotional participation of the worker. participation in decision-making is the key to empowerment. this requires management to adopt new methods that allow the worker, whether professional or manual, to be an active participant. successful application of the empowerment principles in health care extends to the patient, the family, and the community, emphasizing patients' rights to informed participation in decisions affecting their medical care, and the protection of privacy and dignity. diffusion of powers occurs when management of services is decentralized. delegation of powers to professional groups, non-governmental organizations (ngos), and advocacy organizations is part of empowerment in health care organizations. governmental powers to govern or promote areas such as licensure, accreditation, training, research, and service can be devolved to local authorities or ngos by delegation of authority or transfer of funds. organizational change may involve decentralization. institutional changes such as amalgamation of hospitals, long-term care facilities, home care programs, day surgery, ambulatory care, and public health services are needed to produce a more effective use of resources. integration of services under community leadership and management should encourage transfer of funds within a district health network from institutional care to community-based care. such changes are a test of leadership skills to achieve cultural change within an organization, which requires behavioral change and involvement of health workers in policy and management of the change process. strategic management emphasizes the importance of positioning the organization in its environment in relation to its mission, resources, consumers, and competitors. it requires development of a plan of action or implementation of a strategy to achieve the mission or goal of the organization within acceptable ethical and legal guidelines. articulation of these is a key role of the management level of an organization. defining the mission and goals of the organization must take into account the external and internal environment, resources, and operational needs to implement and evaluate the adequacy of the outcomes. the strategy of the organization matches its internal approach with external factors, such as consumer attitudes and competing organizations. strategy is a set of methods and skills of the health care manager to attain the objectives of a health organization, including: policy is the formulation of objectives and priorities. strategy refers to long-range plans to achieve stated objectives, indicating the problems to be expected and how to deal with them. strategy does not identify all actions to be taken, but it includes evaluation of progress made towards a stated goal. while the term has traditionally been used in a military context, it has become an essential concept in management, whether of industry, business, or health care. tactics are the methods used to fulfill the strategy. thus, strategic mbo is applicable to the health system, incorporating definitions of goals and targets, and the methods to achieve them (box 12.3). change in health organizations may involve a substantial alteration in the size or relationships between existing, well-established facilities and programs (table 12. 2). a strategic plan for health reform in response to the need for cost containment, redefined health targets, or dissatisfaction with the status quo requires a model or a vision for the future and a well-managed program. opposition to change may occur for psychological, social, and economic reasons, or because of fear of loss of jobs or changes in assignments, salary, authority, benefits, or status. downsizing in the hospital sector, with buildup of community health services, is one of the major issues in health reforms in many countries. it can be accomplished over time by naturally occurring vacancies or attrition due to retirement, or by retraining and reassignment, all of which require skilled leadership. the introduction of new categories of health workers in hospitals such as phlebotomists, hospitalist doctors, and technicians of all kinds has improved hospital efficiency and safety. community health has benefited from home care and in many situations community health workers to assist and supervise patient care in remote rural villages and in urban centers, even in high-income countries, with health guides trained to help people to function with chronic illnesses and dementias (see chapter 14). the new public health is an integration or coordination of many participating health care facilities and health-promoting programs. it is evolving in various forms in different places as networks with administrative and financial interaction between participating elements. each organization provides its own specific services or groups of services. how they function internally and how they interact functionally and financially are important aspects of the management and outcomes of health systems. the health system functions as a network with formal and informal relationships; it may be very broad and loosely connected as in a highly decentralized system, with many lines of communication, payment, regulation, standards setting, and levels of authority. the relationship and interchange between different health care providers have functional and economic elements. as an example, an educated adult woman is more likely than an uneducated woman to prepare herself for the requirements of pregnancy by smoking and alcohol or drug cessation, folic acid intake, healthful diet, and attending professional antenatal care. a pregnant woman who is healthy and prepared for pregnancy physically and emotionally, and who receives comprehensive prenatal care, is less likely than a woman whose health is neglected to develop complications and require prolonged hospital care as a result of childbirth. the cost of good prenatal care is a fraction of the economic cost of treating the potential complications and damage to her health or that of the newborn. a health system is responsible for ensuring that a woman of reproductive age takes folic acid tablets orally before becoming pregnant, has had access to family planning services so that the pregnancy is a desired one, ensures that the space between pregnancies is adequate for her health and that of her baby, and receives adequate prenatal care. an obstetrics department should be involved in assuring or providing the prenatal care, especially for high-risk cases, and delivery should be in hygienic and professionally supervised settings. similarly, for children and elderly people, there is a wide range of public health and personal care services that make up an adequate and cost-effective set of services and programs. the economic burden of caring for the sick child falls on the hospital. when there is a per capita grant to a district, the hospital and the primary care service have a mutual interest in reducing morbidity and hence mortality. this is the principle of the hmos and district health systems discussed elsewhere. it is also a fundamental principle of the new public health. health care organizations differ according to size, complexity, ownership, affiliations, types of services, and location. traditionally, a health care organization provides a single type of service, such as an acute care hospital providing episodic inpatient care, or a home health care agency. in present-day health reforms, health care organizations, such as an hmo or a district health system, provide a populationbased, comprehensive service program. each organization must have or develop a structure suited to meet its goals, in both the internal and external environments. the common elements that each organization must deal with include governance of policy, production or service, maintenance, financing, relating to the external environment, and adapting to changing conditions. a functional model of an organization perhaps best suited to the smaller hospital is the division of labor into specific functional departments; for example, medical, nursing, administration, pharmacy, maintenance, and dietary, each reporting through a single chain of command to the chief executive officer (ceo) (figure 12.7) . the governing agency, which may be a local non-profit board or a national health system, has overall legal responsibility for the operation and financial status of the hospital, as well as raising capital for improvements. the medical staff may be in private practice and work in the hospital with their own patients by application for this right as "attending physician", according to their professional qualifications, or the medical staff may be employed by the hospital in a similar way to the rest of the staff. salaried medical staff may include physicians in administration, pathology, anesthesia, and radiology, so that even in a private practice market system many medical staff members are hospital employees. increasingly, hospitals are employing "hospitalists", who are full-or part-time physicians whose work is in the health facility, to provide continuity of inpatient and emergency department services, augmenting the services of senior or attending staff or private practice physicians. this shift is in part related to the increasing numbers of female physicians who run their homes and families as well as practice medicine and who find this mode of work more attractive than full-time private practice. this model is the common arrangement in north american hospitals. the governing board of a "voluntary", nongovernmental, not-for-profit organization with municipal and community representatives may be appointed by a sponsoring religious, municipal, or fraternal organization. the corporate model in health care organization (figure 12.8) is often used in larger hospitals or where mergers with other hospitals or health facilities are taking place. the ceo delegates responsibility to other members of the senior management team who have operational responsibility for major sectors of the hospital's functioning. a variation of the corporate model is the divisional model of a health care organization based on the individual service divisions allowing middle management a high degree of autonomy (figure 12.9 ). there is often departmental budgeting for each service, which operates as an economic unit; that is, balancing income and expenditures. each division is responsible for its own performance, with powers of strategic and operational decision-making authority. this model is used widely in private corporations, and in many hospitals in the usa. with increasing complexity of services, it is also employed in corporate health systems in the usa, with regional divisions. the matrix model of a health care organization is based on a combination of pyramidal and network organization. this model is suited to a public health department in a state, county, or city. individual staff people report in the pyramidal chain of command, but also function in multidisciplinary teams to work on specific programs or projects. a nutritionist in the geriatric department is responsible to the chief of nutrition services but is functionally a member of the team on the geriatric unit. in a laterally integrated health maintenance organization or district health system, specialized staff may serve in both institutional (i.e., hospital) and community health roles (figure 12.10) . the organizational structure appropriate to one set of circumstances may not be suitable for all. whether the payment system is by norm (i.e., by predetermined numbers of staff, their salaries, and fixed costs for all services), per diem (i.e., payment of a daily rate times the number of days of stay), historical budget, or per capita in a regional or district health system structure (see chapters 10 and 11), the internal operation of a hospital will require a model of organization appropriate to it. hospitals need to modify their organizational structure as they evolve, and as the economics of health care change. leadership in an organization requires the ability to define the goals or mission of the organization and to develop a strategy and define steps needed to achieve these goals. it requires an ability to motivate and engender enthusiasm for this vision by working with others to gain their ideas, their support, and their participation in the effort. in health care as in other organizations, it is easier to formulate plans than to implement them. change requires the ability not only to formulate the concept of change, but also to modify the organizational structure, the budgeted resources, the operational policies and, perhaps most importantly, the corporate culture of the organization. management involves skills that are not automatically part of a health professional's training. skilled clinicians often move into positions requiring management skills in order to build and develop the health care infrastructure. in some countries, hospital managers must be physicians, often senior surgeons. clinical capability does not transfer automatically into management skills to deal with personnel, budgets, and resources. therefore, training in management is vital for the health professional. the manager needs training for investigations and factfinding as well as the ability to evaluate personnel, programs, and issues, and set priorities for dealing with the short-and long-term issues. negotiating with staff and outside agencies is a constant activity of the manager, ranging from the trivial to major decisions with wide implications. perhaps the most crucial skill of the manager is communication: the ability to convey verbal, written, or unwritten messages that are received and understood and to assess the responses as an equal part of the exchange. interpersonal skills are a part of management practice. the capable manager can relate to personnel at all levels in an open and equal manner. this skill is essential to help foster a sense of pride and involvement of all personnel in working towards the same goals and objectives, and to show that each member of the team is important to meeting the objectives of the organization. at the same time, the manager needs to communicate information, especially as to how the organization is doing in achieving its objectives. the manager is responsible for organizing, planning, controlling, directing, and motivating. managers assume multiple roles. a role is an organized set of behaviors. henry mintzberg described the roles needed by all managers: informational, interpersonal, and decisional roles. robert katz (1974) identified three managerial skills that are essential to successful management: technical, human, and conceptual: "technical skill involves process or technique knowledge and proficiency. managers use the processes, techniques and tools of a specific area. human skill involves the ability to interact effectively with people. managers interact and cooperate with employees. conceptual skill involves the formulation of ideas. managers understand abstract relationships, develop ideas, and solve problems creatively". technical skill deals with things, human skill concerns people, and conceptual skill has to do with ideas. the distribution of these skills between the levels of management is shown in figure 12 .11. hospital directors in the past were often senior physicians, often called superintendents, without training in health management. the business manager ceo has become common in hospital management in the usa. during the 1950s, the ceo was called an administrator, and worked under the direction of a board of trustees who raised funds, set policies, and were often involved in internal administration. where the ceo was a non-physician, the usual case in north american hospitals, a conflict often existed with the clinical staff of the hospital. in some settings, this led to appointment of a parallel structure with a full-time chief of medical staff with a focus on clinical and qualitative matters. in european hospitals, the ceo is usually a physician, often by law, and the integration of the management function with the role of clinical chief is the prevalent model. over time, as the cost and complexity of the health system have increased, the ceo role has changed to one of a "coordinator". the ceo is now more involved in external relations and less in the day-to-day operation of the facility. the ceo is a leader/partner but primus inter pares, or first among equals, in a management team that shares information and works to define objectives and solve problems. this de-emphasizes the authoritarian role and stresses the integrative function. the ceo is responsible for the financial management of operational and capital budgets of the facility, which is integral to the planning and future development of the facility. budgets include four main factors: income, fixed or regular overhead, variable or unpredictable overhead, and capital or development costs, all essential to the survival and development of the organization. the key role of top management is to develop a vision, goals, and targets for the institution, to maintain an atmosphere and systems to promote the quality of care, financial solidity, and to represent the institution to the public. the overall responsibility for the function and well-being of the program is with the ceo and the governing board of directors. community participation in management of health facilities has a long-standing and constructive tradition. the traditional hospital board has served as a mechanism for community participation and leadership in promoting health facility development and management at the community level. the role of hospital boards evolved from primarily a philanthropic and fund-raising one to a greater overall responsibility for policy and planning function working closely with management and senior professional staff. this change occurred as operational costs increased rapidly, as government insurance schemes were implemented, and as court decisions defined the liability of hospitals and reinforced the broadened role of governing boards in malpractice cases and quality assurance. centrally developed health systems such as the uk's nhs have promoted district and county health systems with high degrees of community participation and management, both at the district level and for services or facilities. the role of local authorities, as well as state and national governments, is crucial to the functioning of public health in its traditional issues such as safe water supply, sanitation, business licensing, social welfare, and many others, as discussed in chapter 10. these functions have not diminished with the greater roles of state and federal or national governments in health. in healthful living environments the local authority functions are of continuing and indeed expanding importance, as in urban planning and transportation, promoting easy access to commercial facilities for shopping and healthy food sources for poorer sections as well as those available to prosperous members of the community. advocacy has always been an important part of public health. an illustration of this is seen in box 12.4 in changing the law banning birth control in massachusetts in the 1960s. the issue of birth control still casts a heavy burden on women globally owing to religious objections, so this example from the 1960s is still relevant as a political issue both in the usa and in many other countries. community participation can be crucial to the success of an intervention to promote community health. sensitivity to local, religious, or ethnic concerns is part of planning any study or intervention in public health. this does not mean that the national, state, and local health authorities must continuously canvass public opinion, but there is advantage in holding referenda on some issues compared to governmental fiat. the usa has higher rates of fluoridation than most countries, and this is implemented after referenda in each municipality (see chapter 7). in portland, oregon, the city council profluoridation vote in 2012 (new york times, 12 september 2012) was later rejected in the public referendum. portland is the only major american city without fluoridation (portland tribune, 21 may 2013). rationalization of health facilities increasingly means organizational linkages between previously independent facilities. mergers of health facilities are common events in many health systems. in the usa, there are frequent mergers between hospitals, or between facilities linked to hmos or managed care systems. health reform in many countries is based on similar linkages. governmental approval and alteration to financing systems are needed to promote linkages between services to achieve greater efficiency and improve patient care (see chapters 10 and 11). lateral integration is the term used for amalgamation among similar facilities. like a chain of hotels, in health care this involves two or more hospitals, usually meant to achieve cost savings, improve financing and efficiency, and reduce duplication of services. urban hospitals, both notfor-profit as well as for-profit, often respond to competition by purchasing or amalgamating with other hospitals to increase market share in competitive environments. this is often easier for hospital-oriented ceos and staff to comprehend and manage, but it avoids the issues of downsizing and integration with community-based services. vertical integration describes organizational linkages between different kinds of health care facilities to form integrated, comprehensive health service networks. this permits a shift of emphasis and resources from inpatient care to long-term, home, and ambulatory care, and is known as the managed care or district health system model. community interest is a factor in promoting change to integrate services, which can be a major change for the management culture, especially of the hospital. the survival of a health care facility may depend on integration with appropriate changes in concepts of management. in the 1990s, a large majority of california residents moved to managed care programs because of the high cost of fee-for-service indemnity health insurance and because of federal waivers to promote managed care for medicare and medicaid beneficiaries. independent community hospitals without a strong connection to managed care organizations (mcos) were in danger of losing their financial base. hospital bed supplies were reduced in the usa however, the article served to stimulate the legislature to revisit the law, leading to its repeal in 1966, thus allowing use of all methods of birth control. the controversy subsided and women were free to control their own fertility as a result of this advocacy. by diagnosis-related group (drg), rather than on a per diem basis. similar trends are seen in european countries, although in the commonwealth of independent states the number of hospital beds declined between 1990 and 2005-2011 but stabilized at high and inefficient levels (8 beds per 1000 population) compared to the number in western europe, which fell from 5 beds per 1000 in 1990 to 3.4 in 2011, and in some countries to 2 per 1000 population despite increased longevity and aging of the population. there was a shift to stronger ambulatory care, as occurred throughout the industrialized countries despite an aging of the population. these trends were largely due to greater emphasis on ambulatory surgery and other care, and major medical centers responded with strategic plans to purchase community hospitals and develop affiliated medical groups and contract relationships with managed care organizations to strengthen their "market share" service population base for the future. the new payment environment and managed care also promoted hospital mergers (lateral integration) and linkages between different levels of service, such as teaching hospitals with community hospitals and primary community care services (vertical integration). vertical integration not only is important in urban areas, but can serve as a basis for developing rural health care in both developed and developing countries. the district hospital and primary care center operating as an integrated program can provide a high-quality program. hospitalcentered health care, common in industrialized countries, has traditionally channeled a high percentage of total health expenditures into hospital services. over recent years, there has been a reduction in hospital bed supply in most industrialized countries, with shorter length of stay, more emphasis on ambulatory care, improved diagnostic facilities, and improved outcomes of care (see chapter 3). expenditures on the hospital component of care have come down to between 40 and 45 percent of total health expenditures in many countries, with a growing proportion going to ambulatory and primary care, and increased percentages to public health. this shift in priorities has been an evolutionary process that will continue, but requires skilled management leadership, grounded in health systems management training and epidemiological knowledge, and skilled negotiating skills to foster primary care and health promotion approaches both within the organization and in relation to outside services, especially preventive services. this shift in policy direction will be fostered in implementation of the ppaca (obamacare), discussed in chapters 10 and 13. managed care systems or accountable care organizations (acos) will integrate hospital and community care and try to limit hospital care by strengthening ambulatory and primary care, and especially preventive care. this will have both economic and epidemiological benefits, but will depend on skilled management to understand and lead in their implementation. much of the rationale for these changes is discussed in the literature and summarized in a 2012 report from the us institute of medicine, entitled "best care at lower cost". this report calls for overhauling the health system in a continuous evolution based on evidence and lessons learned from decades of innovative care systems and research into their workings. the health system needs to relate to other community services with a shared population orientation (institute of medicine, 2012). norms are useful to promote efficient use of resources and promote high standards of care, if based on empirical standards proved by experience, trial and error, and scientific observation. norms may be needed even without adequate evidence, but should be tested in the reality of observation, experience, and experiment. this process requires data for selected health indicators and trained observers free to examine, report, and publish their findings for open discussion among colleagues and peers in proceedings open to the media and the general public. normative standards of planning are the determination of a number per unit of population that is deemed to be suitable for population needs; for example, the number of beds or doctors per 1000 population or length of stay in hospital. many organizations based on the bureaucratic model used norms as the basis for planning and allocation of resources including funding (see chapter 11). this led to payment systems which encouraged greater use of that resource. if a factory is paid by the number of workers and not the number and quality of the cars produced, then management will have no incentive to introduce efficiency or quality improvement measures. if a district or a hospital is paid by the number of beds, or by days of care in the hospital, there is no incentive to introduce alternative services such as same-day or outpatient surgery and home care. performance indicators are measures of completion of specific functions of preventive care such as immunization, mammography, pap smears, and diabetes and hypertension screening. they are indirect measures of economy, efficiency, and effectiveness of a service and are being adopted as better methods of monitoring and paying for a service, such as by paying a premium. general practitioners in the uk receive additional payments for full immunization coverage of the children registered in their practices. a block grant or per capita sum may be tied to indicators that reflect good standards of care or prevention, such as low infant, child, and maternal mortality. incentive payments to hospitals can promote ambulatory services as alternatives to admissions and reduce lengths of stay. limitations of financial resources in the industrialized countries and even more so in the developing countries make the use of appropriate performance indicators of great importance in the management of resources. pay-for-performance is a system of paying for health services developed in the uk for paying general practitioners, with apparently satisfactory results. it is now widely used in the usa. it is defined as "a strategy to improve health care delivery that relies on the use of market or purchaser power. agency for healthcare research and quality (ahrq) resources on pay for performance (p4p), depending on the context, refers to financial incentives that reward providers for the achievement of a range of payer objectives, including delivery efficiencies, submission of data and measures to payer, and improved quality and patient safety" (agency for healthcare research and quality, 2012) . more than half of commercial hmos are using pay-for-performance. recent legislation requires the medicare and medicaid programs to adopt this approach for beneficiaries and providers. as commercial programs have evolved during the past 5 years, the categories of providers (clinicians, hospitals, and other health care facilities), number of measures, and dollar amounts at risk have increased. this method of payment is likely to be promoted in the affordable care act implementation to improve quality and control cost increases in us health care (see chapters 10, 11, and 13). payfor-performance has also been adopted in other countries trying to improve quality of care, such as macedonia (lazarevik and kasapinov, 2012) . social marketing is the systematic application of marketing alongside other concepts and techniques to achieve specific behavioral goals for a social good. initially focused on commercial goals in the 1970s, the concept became part of health promotion activities to address health issues where there was no current biomedical approach, such as in smoking reduction and in safe sex practices to prevent the spread of hiv. social marketing was based initially on commercial marketing techniques but now integrates a full range of social sciences and social policy approaches using the strong customer understanding and insight approach to inform and guide effective policy and strategy development. it has become part of public health practice and policy setting to achieve both strategic and operational targets. a classic example of the success is seen with tobacco reduction strategies in many countries using education, taxation, and legislative restrictions. other challenges in this field include risk behavior such as alcohol abuse through binge drinking, unsafe sex practices, and dietary practices harmful to health. philanthropy and volunteerism have long been important elements of health systems through building hospitals, mission houses, and food provision, and other prototype initiatives on a demonstration basis. this approach has been instrumental in such areas as improved care and prevention of hiv, immunization in underdeveloped countries, global health strategies, and maternal and child health services. during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, a new "social entrepreneurship" was initiated and developed by prominent reform-minded former us president bill clinton, microsoft's bill gates, and the open society institute of george soros. the rotary club international has been a major factor in funding and promoting the global campaign to eradicate poliomyelitis. this has promoted integration and consortia for the promotion of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (aids) prevention and malaria control in many developing countries. the global alliance for vaccine and immunization (gavi) is a us-based organization which links international public and private organizations and resources to extend access to immunization globally. it includes the united nations children's fund (unicef), who, bilateral donor countries, the vaccine industry, the gates foundation, and other major donors. gavi has made an important contribution to advancing vaccine coverage and adding important new vaccines in many developing countries and regions. these organizations focus funds and activities on promoting improved care and prevention of hiv, tuberculosis, and malaria, along with improved vaccination for children, reproductive health, global health strategies, technologies, and advocacy. these programs generate publicity and raise consciousness at political levels where resource allocations are made. a central feature of these programs is the promotion of "civil society" as active partners in a globalized world of free trade, democracy, and peace. specific initiatives included promoting improved largescale marketing of antiretroviral drugs for the treatment of hiv infection, including price reduction so that developing countries can offer antiretroviral treatment, especially to reduce mother-to-infant transmission. programs have branched out into the distribution of malaria-preventing bed nets, provision of low-cost pharmaceuticals, marketing drugs for the poor, desalination plants, solar roof units, lowcost small loans, and cell phones, mainly in africa. another form of social entrepreneurship that has gained support in the private sector is proactiveness in environmental consciousness to address issues raised by the environmental movement, and public interest for environmental accountability. the automobile industry is facing both public concern and federal legal mandates for improved gas mileage as opposed to public demand for larger cars. hybrid cars using less fuel have been successfully introduced into the market for low-emission, fuel-efficient cars, and electric cars are gradually entering the field. public opinion is showing signs of moving towards promoting environmentally friendly design, marketing, and purchasing practices in energy consumption, conservation practices, and public policy. public opinion and the price of fuel will play a major part in driving governments to legislate energy and conservation policies to address global warming and damage to the environment, with their many negative health consequences. however, such changes must work with public opinion because of the sensitivity of consumers to the price of fuel. in addition, when food crops, such as corn, are used to produce ethanol for energy to replace oil, then food prices rise and consumers suffer and respond vigorously. corporations adopt policies of environmental responsibility in part because of public relations and partly because of potential liability claims. much of the planning and financial costs of offshore petroleum and gas drilling is spent on safety measures to protect the environment. the explosion in 2010 at a british petroleum site in the gulf of mexico, off the coast of texas and louisiana, caused massive pollution and environmental damage, and resulted in the us government being awarded us$4.5 billion against bp for cleanup and damages. the reputation of the corporation suffered and some executive officers lost their positions. thus, corporate social responsibility can be seen as self-interest. new models of health care organization are emerging and developing rapidly in many countries. this is partly a result of a search for more economical methods of delivering health care and partly the result of the target-oriented approach to health planning that seeks the best way to define and achieve health objectives. the developed countries seek ways to restrain cost increases, and the developing countries seek effective ways to quickly and inexpensively raise health standards for their populations. new organizational models that try to meet these objectives include district health systems, managed care organizations (mcos) and accountable care organizations (acos), described in greater detail in chapter 11. critical and basic elements of a health system organization are shown in figure 12 .12. new initiatives are part of the growth and development of any organization or health service system, as needs, technologies, resources, and public demand change. identification of issues and decisions to launch new endeavors or projects to advance the state of the art, to address unmet needs, or to meet competition are part of organizational responsibility, in the public sector to meet needs, and in the private sector to remain competitive. in developing and developed countries, many ngos provide funding from abroad for essential services that a government may be unable to provide. such projects focus on issues directed from the head offices in the usa or europe of the funding source or management offices for specific vertical programs which are often not fully integrated with national priorities and programs. however, these need coordination and approval by the local national government agency responsible for that sector of public service. new projects run by ngos may run in parallel to each other, or to state health services as uncoordinated activities. governmental public health agencies have responsibility for oversight of health systems and can play a leadership and regulatory role in coordinating activities and directing new programs to areas of greatest national need. the public health agency may also seek funding to launch new pilot or specific needs programs. the agency may introduce a new vaccine into a routine immunization program in phases, pending government approval and funding to incorporate it as a routine immunization program based on evaluation of the initial phase. an example is the introduction of haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine in albania in 2006, which was funded by gavi for 5 years based on a study and proposal including a cost-effectiveness study (bino s, ginsberg g, personal communication, 2007) . proposals for health projects by ngos or private agencies need to be prepared in keeping with the vision, mission, and objectives of the responsible governmental agency, with ethics review and community participation. a project proposal should include why the project is important, its specific goals and objectives, available or new resources, and the time-frame required to achieve success (box 12.5). it should describe the means proposed to accomplish the goals, and how the proposed program will impact the community, providing recommendations for follow-up and/or further action. the introduction of the project proposal outlines the current state of the problem and the case for action. it should describe existing programs which address that issue, with proposed collaboration, and expansion or improvement of programs, but avoiding duplication of services. background information needs to relate the project to the priorities of the prospective funding organization. the objectives should follow the acronym "smart": specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-based. this term, originally used for computer disc self-management, has been adapted as a current form of mbo from the 1950s and 1960s. the project objectives should be feasible and the expected results of the project should be based on the stated objectives. organizations: behavior, structure, process. new york: mcgraw-hill/ irwin; 2003. the proposed funding agency expects convincing evidence of how this program will be effective, efficient, practical, and realistic. this information is presented in the activities section, which also needs to address the resources that will be needed to implement the program such as the budget for staff, supervison, training, management, materials (vaccines, syringes, equipment, ongoing supplies and others), transportation, and costs of premises. after completing the activities section, a realistic and achievable work plan and time-frame are required. well-planned projects have monitoring and evaluation criteria. monitoring follows the performance of the program, documenting successes, failures, and lessons learned, as well as expenditures. evaluation guidelines of the program define the methods used to assess the impact of the project and whether the project was carried out in an effective and efficient manner, and may be required periodically throughout the life of the project. the most difficult issue is sustainability. a project funded by an ngo is usually time limited to 3-4 years and the survival of the program usually depends on its acceptability and the capacity of government to continue it. thus, evaluation becomes even more crucial for the follow-up of even successful short-term projects. harm reduction programs include tackling hiv in drug users, reducing maternal-child hiv transmission, tobacco control programs, and reducing levels of obesity in schoolchildren. sustainability and diffusion of positive findings to wider application are important challenges, especially to global health. even in high-income countries, diffusion of best practices is often slow and fraught with controversy and inertia. examples of this slow or non-diffusion of evidence-based public health include the failure of most european countries to harmonize salt fortification with iodine or total indifference to flour fortification with folic acid to prevent neural tube defects (see chapters 6 and 8). public health work within departments or ministries of health or local health authorities operates at a disadvantage in comparison with other health activities, especially hospitals, pharmaceuticals, diagnostics, and medical care. the competition for resources in a centrally funded system is intense, and the political and bureaucratic battles for funds may pit new immunization agents or health promotion programs against new cancer treatment drugs or scanners, and this is very often a difficult struggle. the presentation of program proposals for new public health interventions requires skill, professionalism, good timing, and the help of informed public and professional opinion. allocation of resources is decided at the political level in a tax-based universal system, while even in a social security (bismarckian) system where funding is through an employee-employer payroll deduction, additional funding from government is essential to keep up with the continuing flow of new modalities of treatment or prevention. public health is handicapped in portraying the costs and benefits of important interventions, leaving new programs with insufficient resources, including the staffing and administrative costs (e.g., office space, phone service, transportation costs), which are essential parts of any public health program. portraying the cost of the new proposed program should be based on the total population served, not just the specific target population for a new program; that is, it should be represented as a per capita cost. similarly, projected benefits should extrapolate the results from other areas, such as pandemic or avian flu or severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars), and the likely impact on the target geographic area and its population. public health has prime responsibility for monitoring the health status of the population as well as in preventing infectious and non-communicable diseases and injuries, preparing for disasters, and many other functions. this role requires an adequate multidisciplinary workforce with high levels of competencies. this topic is discussed extensively in chapter 14. canada's experience with the sars epidemic in 2003 led to a reappraisal of public health preparedness and standards. this, in turn, led to the establishment of the national public health agency of canada, which is mandated to develop standards and practices to raise the quality of public health in the country and especially to prepare for possible pandemics. the agency issued standards of competency for public health personnel and fostered the development of regional laboratories, and schools of public health were developed across canada. core competencies for program planning implementation and evaluation are seen in box 12.7. health care systems throughout the world are being scrutinized because of their growing costs in relation to national wealth. at the same time, techniques for evaluating health care with respect to appropriateness, quality, and resource allocation are being developed. these techniques are multifactorial since they must relate to all aspects of health care, including the characteristics of the population being served; available health care resources; measures of the process and utilization of care; measures of health care outcomes; peer review, including quality assessment of health care providers; consumer attitudes, knowledge, and compliance; care provided for "tracer" or sample conditions; and economic cost-benefit studies. evaluation in health care assumes that a health care system and the providers of health care within that system are responsible and accountable for the health status of the population. it must, however, recognize that health services are not the sole determinants of health status; social, economic, and cultural factors also play key roles. a comprehensive approach to evaluation in health care is described in chapter 3. many of the components that are available in health care systems exist, while others that remain to be developed are discussed. evaluation is an integral part of a comprehensive health care system, in that the components of evaluation must be built into any national system. as long as rationality is expected of health care, evaluation is an essential element of the overall system (tulchinsky, 1982) (see chapter 3). the purpose of management in health is the improvement of health, and not merely the maintenance of an institution. separate management of a variety of health facilities serving a community has derived from different historical development and funding systems. in competition for public attention and political support, public health suffers in comparison to hospitals, new technology and drugs, and other competitors for limited resources. the experience of successes in reducing mortality from both non-infectious and infectious conditions comes largely from public health interventions. medical care is also an essential part of public health, so that management and resource allocation within the total health sector are interactive and mutually dependent. the new public health looks at all services as part of a network of interdependent services, each contributing to health needs, whether in hospital care or in enforcing public health law regarding; for example, motor vehicle safety and smoking restriction in public places. separate management and budgeting of a complex of services results in disproportionate funds, staff, and attention being directed towards high-cost services such as hospitals, and fails to redirect resources to more cost-effective and patient-sensitive kinds of services, such as home and preventive care. however, reducing the supply of hospital beds and implementing payment systems with resources for early diagnosis and incentives for short stays have changed this situation quite dramatically in recent decades. the effects of incentives and disincentives built into funding systems are central issues in determining how management approaches problem solving and program planning, and are therefore important considerations in promoting health. the management approach to resolving this dilemma is professional vision and leadership to promote the broader new public health. thus, managers of hospitals and other health facilities need broad-based training in a new public health in order to understand the interrelationships of services, funding, and population health. managers who continue to work with an obsolescent paradigm with the traditional emphasis, regardless of the larger picture, may find the hospital non-competitive in a new climate where economic incentives promote downsizing institutions and upgrading health promotion. defensive, internalized management will become obsolete, while forward-looking management will be the pioneers of the new public health. this may be seen as a systems approach to improve population and individual health, based on strategic planning for immediate needs and adaptation of health systems in the longer term issues in health. examples of national planning that cut across health and social services include national insurance policies and the provision of new services to meet rising needs, as shown for alzheimer's disease, in france since 2001 (box 12.8) and in the usa since 2011 (box 12.9). health care is one of the largest and most important industries in any country, consuming anywhere from 3 to nearly 18 percent of gnp, and still growing. it is a service, not a production industry, and is vital to the health and well-being box 12.7 core competencies for program planning, implementation and evaluation management, from policy to operational management of a production or a service system. creative management of health systems is vital to the functioning of the system at the macrolevel, as well as in the individual department or service. this implies effective use of resources to achieve objectives, and community, provider, and consumer satisfaction. these are formidable challenges, not only when money is available in abundance, but even more so when resources are limited and difficult choices need to be made. modern management includes knowledge and skills in identifying and measuring community health needs and health risks. critical needs are addressed in strategic planning with measurable impacts and targets. public health managers should have skills gained in marketing, networking, data management, managing human resources and finance, engaging community partners, and communicating public health messages. many of the methods of management and organization theory developed as part of the business world have become part of public health. these include defining the mission, values and objectives of the organization, strategic planning and management, mbo, human resource management (recognizing individual and professional values), incentives-disincentives, regulation, education, and economic resources. the ultimate mission of public health is the saving of human life and improving its quality, and achieving this efficiently with high standards of professionalism and community involvement. the scope of the new public health is broad. it includes the traditional public health programs, but equally must concern itself with managing and planning comprehensive service systems and measuring their function. the selection of targets and priorities is often determined by the feasible rather than the ideal. the health manager, either at the macrolevel of health or managing a local clinic, needs to be able to conceptualize the possibilities of improving the health of individuals and the population in his or her service responsibility with current and appropriate methods. good management means designing objectives based on a balance between the feasible and the desirable. public health has benefited greatly from its work with the social sciences and assistance from management and systems sciences to adapt and absorb the new challenges and technologies in applied public health. the new public health is not only a concept; it is a management approach to improve the health of individuals and the population. for a complete bibliography and guidance for student reviews and expected competencies please see companion web site at http://booksite.elsevier.com/9780124157668 bibliography electronic resources glossary of managed care terms national association of public hospitals and health systems world health organization, the health manager's website pay for performance (p4p): ahrq resources dr. deming: the american who taught the japanese about quality achieving a high performance health care system with universal access: what the united states can learn from other countries improving the effectiveness of health care and public health: a multi-scale complex systems analysis framework for program evaluation in public health biological and chemical terrorism: strategic plan for preparedness and response. recommendations of the cdc strategic planning workgroup a framework for program evaluation. office of the associate director for program -program evaluation developing leadership skills patterns of ambulatory health care in five different delivery systems capacity planning in health care: a review of the international experience. who, on behalf of the european observatory on health systems and policies strategic management of health care organizations social media engagement and public health communication: implications for public health organizations being truly "social crossing the quality chasm: a new health system for the twenty-first century future of the public's health in the 21st century best care at lower cost: the path to continuously learning health care in america behavioral interventions to reduce risk for sexual transmission of hiv among men who have sex with men cd001230. available at the wisdom of teams: creating the high-performance organization social marketing: influencing behaviors for good the interaction of public health and primary care: functional roles and organizational models that bridge individual and population perspectives the powers and pitfalls of the payment for performance three skills every 21st-century manager needs total quality management as competitive advantage: a review and empirical study making the best of hospital pay for performance the public health approach to eliminating disparities in health public health systems and services research: building the evidence base to improve public health practice united states innovations in healthcare delivery a call to action: lowering the cost of health care reduced mortality with hospital pay for performance in england practical challenges of systems thinking and modeling in public health public health: essentials of public health health united states the funding organization will want to know what will be the expected product of the program in measurable process (e.g., immunization coverage) or outcome indicators (e.g., reduced child mortality). projections will be based on the intended activities and known outcomes of other past programs with similar goals in the same or other countries (environmental scan), and should be supported by a review of local and international literature on the topic. the activities section of a proposal should include a timeline of the intended actions and a description of activities based on best practices. the expected outcomes, monitoring and evaluation, and justification are all part of the presentation (box 12.6). the following utility standards ensure that an evaluation will serve the information needs of intended users: l identify and engage stakeholders, including relevant government agencies, people or communities involved in or affected by the evaluation, so that their needs and concerns can be addressed. l develop and describe the program. l focus the evaluation design with ethical standards and review requirements respected.l gather credible evidence -the people conducting the evaluation should be trustworthy and competent in performing the evaluation for findings to achieve maximum credibility and acceptance. information collected should address pertinent questions regarding the program and be responsive to the needs and interests of clients and other specified stakeholders.l justify the conclusions -the perspectives, procedures, and rationale used to interpret the findings should be carefully described so that the bases for value judgments are clear. l ensure sharing and use of information and lessons learned -evaluation reports should clearly describe the program being evaluated, including its context and the purposes, procedures, and findings of the evaluation so that essential information is provided and easily understood. substantial interim findings and evaluation reports should be disseminated to intended users so that they can be used in a timely fashion to encourage follow-through by stakeholders, to increase the likelihood of the evaluation being used.l standards of a project should focus on scientific justification, utility, feasibility, propriety, and accuracy. l a program in this context includes: -direct service interventions -community mobilization efforts -research initiatives -surveillance systems -policy development activities -outbreak investigations -laboratory diagnostics -communication campaigns -infrastructure building projects -training and education services -administrative systems and others. title page -name of project; principal people and implementing organizations; contact person(s); timeframe; country (state, region); target group of project; estimated project cost; date of submission.l introduction -provides project background including the health issue(s) to be addressed, a situational analysis of the health problem, the at-risk and target populations, and existing programs in the community; includes an international and national literature review of the topic with references. budget -estimated cost of expenditures, including human resources, activities, running costs, and overheads for project and evaluation. l monitoring and evaluation -what evidence will be used to indicate how the program has performed? what plan is recommended for periodic follow-up of project activities (including timeline and measures) to implement lessons learned from positive or negative outcomes, and use of resources? how efficient and effective is the project? l conclusions -what conclusions regarding program performance may be drawn? what conclusions regarding program performance are justified by comparing the available evidence to the selected standards? l reporting -report the project to the key stakeholders and public bodies; publication in peer-reviewed journal if possible.l justification -why is this project important and timely, and how will implementation benefit health of the community?core competencies are essential knowledge, skills, and attitudes necessary for the practice of public health. they transcend the boundaries of specific disciplines and are independent of program and topic. they are the building blocks for effective public health practice, and the use of an overall public health approach.generic core competencies provide a baseline for what is required to fulfill public health system core functions. these include population health assessment, surveillance, disease and injury prevention, health promotion, and health protection.the core competencies are needed to effectively choose options, and to plan, implement, and evaluate policies and/ or programs in public health, including the management of incidents such as outbreaks and emergencies.a public health practitioner is able to: l describe selected policy and program options to address a specific public health issue l describe the implications of each option, especially as they apply to the determinants of health and recommend or decide on a course of action l develop a plan to implement a course of action taking into account relevant evidence, legislation, emergency planning procedures, regulations, and policies l implement a policy or program and/or take appropriate action to address a specific public health issue l demonstrate the ability to implement effective practice guidelines l evaluate an action, a policy, or a program l demonstrate an ability to set and follow priorities, to maximize outcomes based on available resources l demonstrate the ability to fulfill functional roles in response to a public health emergency. of the individual, the population, and the economy. because health care employs large numbers of skilled professionals and many unskilled people, it is often vital to the economic survival of small communities, as well as for a sense of community well-being.management includes planning, leading, controlling, organizing, motivating, and decision-making. it is the application of resources and personnel towards achieving targets. therefore, it involves the study of the use of resources, and the motivation and function of the people involved, including the producer or provider of service, and the customer, client, or patient. this cannot take place in a vacuum, but is based on the continuous monitoring of information and its communication to all parties involved. these functions are applicable at all levels of an estimated 600,000 french people lived with dementia; half were diagnosed and one-third were receiving treatment; 75 percent of people with alzheimer's disease were living at home; 50 percent of all nursing home residents lived with some form of dementia; a day's care cost €60 while full-time residency in a nursing home ranged between €3000 and €4600. l identify the early symptoms of dementia and refer people to specialists. l create a network of "memory centers" to enable earlier diagnosis. "for millions of americans, the heartbreak of watching a loved one struggle with alzheimer's disease is a pain they know all too well. alzheimer's disease burdens an increasing number of our nation's elders and their families, and it is essential that we confront the challenge it poses to our public health. " on 4 january 2011, president barack obama signed into law the national alzheimer's project act (napa), requiring the secretary of the us department of health and human services (hhs) to establish the national alzheimer's project to: l create and maintain an integrated national plan to overcome alzheimer's disease (ad). l coordinate alzheimer's disease research and services across all federal agencies. l accelerate the development of treatments to prevent, halt, or reverse the course of ad. l improve early diagnosis and coordination of care and treatment of ad. l improve outcomes for ethnic and racial minority populations that are at higher risk for ad. l coordinate with international bodies to fight ad globally. the law also establishes the advisory council on alzheimer's research, care, and services and requires the secretary of hhs, in collaboration with the advisory council, to create and maintain a national plan to overcome ad. research funds are being allocated towards that end. education for health providers, strengthening of the workforce, for direct care and for public health guidelines for management of ad, education and support for caring families, addressing special housing needs for ad patients and many other initiatives are proposed in this comprehensive approach to a growing public health problem. enhancing public awareness is crucial to achieve the goals set out in this plan. key: cord-319828-9ru9lh0c authors: shi, shuyun; he, debiao; li, li; kumar, neeraj; khan, muhammad khurram; choo, kim-kwang raymond title: applications of blockchain in ensuring the security and privacy of electronic health record systems: a survey date: 2020-07-15 journal: comput secur doi: 10.1016/j.cose.2020.101966 sha: doc_id: 319828 cord_uid: 9ru9lh0c due to the popularity of blockchain, there have been many proposed applications of blockchain in the healthcare sector, such as electronic health record (ehr) systems. therefore, in this paper we perform a systematic literature review of blockchain approaches designed for ehr systems, focusing only on the security and privacy aspects. as part of the review, we introduce relevant background knowledge relating to both ehr systems and blockchain, prior to investigating the (potential) applications of blockchain in ehr systems. we also identify a number of research challenges and opportunities. there is an increasing interest in digitalizing healthcare systems by governments and related industry sectors, partly evidenced by various initiatives taking place in different countries and sectors. for example, the then u.s. president signed into law the health information technology for economic and clinical health (hitech) act of 2009, as 5 part of the american recovery and reinvestment act of 2009. hitech is designed to encourage broader adoption of electronic health records (ehrs), with the ultimate aim of benefiting patients and society. the potential benefits associated with ehr systems (e.g. public healthcare management, online patient access, and patients medical data sharing) have also attracted the interest of the research community [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9] . the 10 potential of ehrs is also evidenced by the recent 2019 novel coronavirus (also referred to as 2019-ncov and covid-2019) pandemic, where remote patient monitoring and other healthcare deliveries are increasingly used in order to contain the situation. as with any maturing consumer technologies, there are a number of research and operational challenges. for example, many existing ehr systems use a centralized server 15 model, and hence such deployments inherit security and privacy limitations associated with the centralized server model (e.g. single point of failure and performance bottleneck). in addition, as ehr systems become more commonplace and the increasing understanding of the importance of data (particularly healthcare data), honest but curious servers may surreptitiously collect personal information of users while carrying out 20 their normal activities. in recent times, there is an increasing trend in deploying blockchain in a broad range of applications, including healthcare (e.g. public healthcare management, counterfeit drug prevention, and clinical trial) [10, 11, 12 ]. this is not surprising, since blockchain is an immutable, transparent and decentralized distributed database [13] that can be 25 leveraged to provide a secure and trusty value chain. an architecture of blockchain-based healthcare systems is shown in fig. 1 . blockchain is a distributed ledger database on a peer-to-peer (p2p) network that comprises a list of ordered blocks chronologically. in other words, this is a decentralized and trustworthy distributed system (without relying on any third party). trust relation among 30 distributed nodes is established by mathematical methods and cryptography technologies instead of semi-trusted central institutions. blockchain-based systems can mitigate the limitation of the single point of failure. besides, since data is recorded in the public ledger, and all of nodes in the blockchain network have ledger backups and can access these data anytime and anywhere, such a system ensures data transparency and helps to 35 build trust among distributed nodes. it also facilitates data audit and accountability by having the capability to trace tamper-resistant historical record in the ledger. depending on the actual deployment, data in the ledger can be stored in the encrypted form using different cryptographic techniques; hence, preserving data privacy. users can also protect their real identities in the sense of pseudo-anonymity. to enhance robustness, 40 we can introduce smart contracts (i.e. a kind of self-executing program deployed on the distributed blockchain network) to support diverse functions for different application scenarios. specifically, the terms of smart contract can be preset by users and the smart contract will only be executed if the terms are fulfilled. hence, this hands over control to the owner of the data. there are a (small) number of real-world blockchain-based 45 healthcare systems, such as gem, guardtime and healthbank [14] . hence, in this paper we focus on blockchain-based healthcare systems. specifically, we will comprehensively review some existing work, and identify existing and emerging challenges and potential research opportunities. prior to presenting the results of our re-3 view, we will first introduce ehr system and blockchain architecture in the next section. 50 then, in section 3, we will review the extant literature and provide a comparative summary of some existing systems. in section 4, we identify a number of potential research opportunities. finally, we conclude the paper in the last section. in a centralized architecture, such as those that underpin a conventional ehr system, 55 a central institution is tasked with managing, coordinating and controlling of the entire network. however, in a distributed architecture, all nodes are maintained without relying on a central authority. now, we will briefly explain the ehr system and blockchain technology. the electronic health record (ehr) is generally defined to be the collection of patients' electronic health information (e.g. in the form of electronic medical records -emrs). emrs can serve as a data source for ehr mainly from healthcare providers in the medical institutions. the personal health record (phr) contains personal healthcare information, such as those obtained from wearable devices owned and controlled by 65 patients. information collected as part of phrs can be available to healthcare providers, by users (patients). in theory, ehr systems should ensure the confidentiality, integrity and availability of the stored data, and data can be shared securely among authorized users (e.g. medical practitioners with the right need to access particular patient's data to facilitate diagno-70 sis). in addition, such a system if implemented well, can reduce data replication and the risk of lost record, and so on. however, the challenge of securing data in such systems, whether in-transit or at-rest, is compounded by the increasing connectivity to these systems (e.g. more potential attack vectors). for example, mobile devices that can sync with the ehr system is a potential attack vector that can be targeted (e.g. an attacker 75 can seek to exploit a known vulnerability in the hospital-issued mobile devices and install malware to facilitate covert exfiltration of sensitive data (e.g. phrs)). one of the key benefits of ehr systems is the availability of large volumes of data, which can be used to facilitate data analysis and machine learning, for example to inform other medical research efforts such as disease forecasting (e.g. the 2019 novel 80 coronavirus). furthermore, wearable and other internet of things (iot) devices can collect and upload relevant information, including those relating to phrs, to the ehr systems, which can facilitate healthcare monitoring and personalized health services. blockchain is made popular by the success of bitcoin [15] , and can be used to facilitate 85 trustworthy and secure transactions across an untrusted network without relying on any centralized third party. we will now introduce the fundamental building blocks in the blockchain [16, 17, 18] . blockchain is a chronological sequence of blocks including a list of complete and valid transaction record. blocks are linked to the previous block by a reference (hash value), 90 and thus forming a chain. the block preceding a given block is called its parent block, and the first block is known as the genesis block. a block [15] consists of the block header the block header contains: • block version: block validation rules; 95 • previous block hash: hash value of the previous block; • timestamp: the creation time of the current block; • nonce: a 4-byte random field that miners adjust for every hash calculation to solve a pow mining puzzle (see also section 2.2.2); • body root hash: hash value of the merkle tree root built by transactions in the 100 block body; • target hash: target threshold of hash value of a new valid block. the target hash is used to determine the difficulty of the pow puzzle (see also section 2.2.2). merkle tree is used to store all the valid transactions, in which every leaf node is a 105 transaction and every non-leaf node is the hash value of its two concatenated child nodes. such a tree structure is efficient for the verification of the transaction's existence and integrity, since any node can confirm the validation of any transaction by the hash value of the corresponding branches rather than entire merkle tree. meanwhile, any modification on the transaction will generate a new hash value in the upper layer and 110 this will result in a falsified root hash. besides, the maximum number of transactions that a block can contain depends on the size of each transaction and the block size. these blocks are then chained together using cryptographic hash function in an append-only structure. that means new data is only appended in the form of additional blocks chained with previous blocks since altering and deleting previously confirmed data 115 is impossible. as previously discussed, any modification of one of the blocks will generate a different hash value and different link relation. hence, achieving immutability and security. digital signature based on asymmetric cryptography is generally used for transaction 120 authentication in an untrustworthy environment [19, 20] . blockchain uses asymmetric 6 cryptography mechanism to send transactions and verify the authentication of transacotherwise, it will be discarded in this process. only valid transactions can be stored in the new block of blockchain network. we will take the coin transfer as an example (see fig. 3 ). alice transfers a certain amount of coins to bob. in step 1, she initiates a transaction signed by her private key. the transaction can be easily verified by others using alice's public key. in step 2, the 135 transaction is broadcasted to other nodes through the p2p network. in step 3, each node will verify the transaction by predefined rules. in step 4, each validated transaction will be packed chronologically and appended to a new block once a miner solves the puzzle. finally, every node will update and back up the new block. in the blockchain network, there is no trusted central authority. thus, reaching a consensus for these transactions among untrustworthy nodes in a distributed network is an important issue, which is a transformation of the byzantine generals (bg) problem proposed in [22] . the bg problem is that a group of generals command the byzantine army to circle the city, and they have no chance of winning the war unless all of them 145 attack at the same time. however, they are not sure whether there are traitors who might retreat in a distributed environment. thus, they have to reach an agreement to attack or retreat. it is the same challenge for the blockchain network. a number of protocols have been designed to reach consensus among all the distributed nodes before a new block is linked into blockchain [23] , such as the following: • pow (proof of work) is the consensus mechanism used in bitcoin. if the miner node who has certain computing (hashing) power wishes to obtain some rewards, the miner must perform the laborious task of mining to prove that he is not malicious. the task requires that the node repeatedly performs hash computations to find an eligible nonce value that satisfies the requirement that a hashed block 155 head must be less than (or equal to) the target hash value. the nonce is difficult to generate but easy for other nodes to validate. the task is costly (in terms of computing resources) due to the number of difficult calculations. a 51% attack is a potential attack in the blockchain network, where if a miner or a group of miners can control more than 51% of the computing power, they could interfere with the 160 generation of new blocks and create fraudulent transaction records beneficial for the attackers. • pos (proof of stake) is an improved and energy-saving mechanism of pow. it is believed that nodes with the largest number of stakes (e.g. currency) would be less likely to attack the network. however, the selection based on account balance is 165 unfair because the richest node is more likely to be dominant in the network, which would be similar to a centralized system gradually. blockchain systems are divided into three types based on permissions given to network 210 nodes: • public blockchain. the public blockchain is open to anyone who wants to join anytime and acts as a simple node or as a miner for economic rewards. bitcoin [15] and ethereum [25] are two well-known public blockchain platforms. • private blockchain. the private blockchain network works based on access control, 215 in which participants must obtain an invitation or permissions to join. gemos [26] and multichain [27] are both typical private blockchain platforms. • consortium blockchain. the consortium blockchain is "semi-private" sitting on the fence between public and private blockchains. it is granted to a group of approved organizations commonly associated with enterprise use to improve business. hy-220 perledger fabric [28] is a business consortium blockchain framework. ethereum also supports for building consortium blockchains. generally, ehrs mainly contain patient medical history, personal statistics (e.g. age and weight), laboratory test results and so on. hence, it is crucial to ensure the security 225 and privacy of these data. in addition, hospitals in countries such as u.s. are subject to exacting regulatory oversight. there are also a number of challenges in deploying and implementing healthcare systems in practice. for example, centralized server models are vulnerable to the single-point attack limitations and malicious insider attacks, as previously discussed. users (e.g. patients) whose data is outsourced or stored in these 230 ehr systems generally lose control of their data, and have no way of knowing who is accessing their data and for what kind of purposes (i.e. violation of personal privacy). such information may also be at risk of being leaked by malicious insiders to another organization, for example an insurance company may deny insurance coverage to the particular patient based on leaked medical history. meanwhile, data sharing is increasingly crucial particularly as our society and population become more mobile. by leveraging the interconnectivity between different healthcare entities, shared data can improve medical service delivery, and so on. overcoming the "information and resource island" (information silo) will be challenging, for example due to privacy concerns and regulations. the information silo also contributes to 240 unnecessary data redundancy and red-tape. in this case, the health insurance portability and accountability act (hipaa) was • unique identifiers rule. only the national provider identifier (npi) identifies covered entities in the standard transactions to protect the patient identity information. • enforcement rule. investigation and penalties for violating hipaa rules. there is another common framework for audit trails for ehrs, called iso 27789, to keep personal health information auditable across systems and domains. secure audit record must be created each time any operation is triggered via the system complying with iso 27789. hence, we posit the importance of a collaborative and transparent data 260 sharing system, which also facilitates audit and post-incident investigation or forensics in the event of an alleged misconduct (e.g. data leakage). such a notion (forensic-by-design) is also emphasized by forensic researchers [29, 30] . as a regulatory response to security concerns about managing the distribution, storage and retrieval of health record by medical industry, title 21 cfr part 11 places 265 requirements on medical systems, including measures such as document encryption and the use of digital signature standards to ensure the authenticity, integrity and confidentiality of record. we summarize the following requirements that should be met based on these relevant standards above when implementing the next generation secure ehr systems: • accuracy and integrity of data (e.g. any unauthorized modification of data is not allowed, and can be detected); • security and privacy of data; • efficient data sharing mechanism (e.g. [31] ); • mechanism to return the control of ehrs back to the patients (e.g. patients can 275 monitor their record and receive notification for loss or unauthorized acquisition); • audit and accountability of data (e.g. forensic-by-design [29, 30] ). the above properties can be achieved using blockchain, as explained below: • decentralization. compared with the centralized mode, blockchain no longer needs to rely on the semi-trusted third party. • security. it is resilient to single point of failure and insider attacks in the blockchainbased decentralized system. • pseudonymity. each node is bound with a public pseudonymous address to protect its real identity. • immutability. it is computationally hard to delete or modify any record of any 285 block included in the blockchain by one-way cryptographic hash function. • autonomy. patients hold the rights of their own data and share their data flexibly by the settings of special items in the smart contract. • incentive mechanism. incentive mechanism of blockchain can stimulate the cooperation and sharing of competitive institutions to promote the development of 290 medical services and research. • auditability. it is easy to keep trace of any operation since any historical transaction is recorded in the blockchain. hence, if blockchain is applied correctly in the ehr systems, it can help to ensure the security of ehr systems, enhance the integrity and privacy of data, encourage orga-295 nizations and individuals to share data, and facilitate both audit and accountability. based on the requirements of a new version of secure ehr systems and the characteristics of blockchain discussed in the preceding section 2.3, we will now describe the key goals in the implementation of secure blockchain-based ehr systems as follows: • privacy: individual data will be used privately and only authorized parties can access the requested data. • security: in the sense of confidentiality, integrity and availability (cia): 1. confidentiality: only authorized users can access the data. integrity: data must be accurate in transit and not be altered by unauthorized 305 entity(ies). 3. availability: legitimate user's access to information and resources is not improperly denied. • accountability: an individual or an organization will be audited and be responsible for misbehavior. • authenticity: capability to validate the identities of requestors before allowing access to sensitive data. • anonymity: entities have no visible identifier for privacy. complete anonymity is challenging, and pseudo-anonymity is more common (i.e. users are identified by something other than their actual identities). in order to satisfy the above goals, existing blockchain-based research in the healthcare domain includes the following main aspects: • data storage. blockchain serves as a trusted ledger database to store a broad range of private healthcare data. data privacy should be guaranteed when secure storage is achieved. however, healthcare data volume tends to be large and complex in practice. hence, a corresponding challenge is how to deal with big data storage without having an adverse impact on the performance of blockchain network. • data sharing. in most existing healthcare systems, service providers usually maintain primary stewardship of data. with the notion of self-sovereignty, it is a trend to return the ownership of healthcare data back to the user who is capable of sharing (or not sharing) his personal data at will. it is also necessary to achieve secure data sharing across different organizations and domains. • data audit. audit logs can serve as proofs to hold requestors accountable for their interactions with ehrs when disputes arise. some systems utilize blockchain and smart contract to keep trace for auditability purpose. any operation or request will be recorded in the blockchain ledger, and can be retrieved at any time. • identity manager. the legitimacy of each user's identity needs to be guaranteed in 335 the system. in other words, only legitimate users can make the relevant requests to ensure system security and avoid malicious attacks. in the remaining of this section, we will review existing approaches to achieve data storage, data sharing, data audit, and identity manager (see sections 3.1 to 3.4). according to section 2.3, one of the solutions to ensure greater security in the ehr system is the use of blockchain technology. however, there are potential privacy problems for all of raw/encrypted data in the public ledger, since blockchain as a public database has the risk of sensitive data being exposed under the statistical attack. some measures should be taken to enhance the privacy protection of sensitive health record in the blockchain-based ehr systems. in generally, privacy preserving approaches can be classified into cryptographic and non-cryptographic approaches, including encryption, anonymisation and access control mechanism respectively. encryption scheme is a relatively common method, such as public key encryption 350 (pke), symmetric key encryption (ske), secure multi-party computation (mpc) [33] and so on. al. [35] proposed that sensors data will be uploaded using a pair of unique private and public keys in the blockchain network to protect the privacy and security of biometric information. zheng et al. [36] proposed that data will be encrypted before being uploaded to cloud servers by symmetric key scheme (i.e. rijndael aes [37] ) with threshold encryption 360 scheme. the symmetric key will be split into multiple shares distributed among different key keepers by shamir's secret sharing scheme [38] . only if data requestor gets enough key shares, he can decrypt the ciphertext. compromising of some key keepers(less than threshold) would not lead to data leakage. yue et al. [39] designed an app on smartphones based on blockchain with mpc tech-365 nique, called healthcare data gateway (hdg). the system allows to run computations of encrypted data directly on the private blockchain cloud and obtain the final results without revealing the raw data. besides, guo et al. [40] proposed an attribute-based signature scheme with multiple authorities (ma-abs) in the healthcare blockchain. the signature of this scheme attests 370 not to the identity of the patient who endorses a message, instead to a claim (like access policy) regarding the attributes delegated from some authorities he possesses. meanwhile, the system has the ability to resist collusion attack by sharing the secret pseudorandom function (prf) seeds among authorities. in order to resist malicious attacks (e.g. statistical attack), healthcare systems have 375 to change the encryption keys frequently of general methods. it will bring the cost for storage and management of a large amount of historical keys since these historical keys must be stored well to decrypt some historical data in future, then the storage cost will be greater, especially for limited computational resource and storage devices. to address this problem, zhao et al. [41] designed a lightweight backup and effi-380 cient recovery key management scheme for body senor networks (bsns) to protect the privacy of sensor data from human body and greatly reduce the storage cost of secret keys. fuzzy vault technology is applied for the generation, backup and recovery of keys without storing any encryption key, and the recovery of the key is executed by bsns. the adversary hardly decrypts sensor data without symmetric key since sensor data is 385 encrypted by symmetric encryption technology (i.e. aes or 3des). we compare and analyse some systems above, shown in table 1 and 2. most systems use cryptographic technology to enhance the security and privacy of healthcare data in the blockchain. however, encryption technique is not absolutely secure. the computational cost of encryption is high for some limited devices. transaction record may 390 also reveal user behaviors and identity because of the fixed account address. malicious attackers may break the ciphertext stored in the public ledger by some means. 2. all of data will be exposed once the corresponding symmetric key is lost table 2 : systems requirements that have been met in table 1 paper security privacy anonymity integrity authentication controllability auditability accountability [34] [35] [36] [39] [40] [42] [41] meanwhile, another important issue is key management. it is the foundation of entire data field safety that private keys do not reveal. the loss of private key means that the holder would have no ability to control the corresponding data. once the 395 private/symmetric key is compromised, all of data may be exposed by attackers. so, both encryption technique and key management should be considered when developers design a secure ehr system. additionally, it must guarantee that only authorized legitimate users can access private data to enhance security. non-cryptographic approaches mainly use access control 400 mechanism for security and preserving privacy. with regard to the security goals, access control mechanism is a kind of security technique that performs identification authenti-19 cation and authorization for entities. it is a tool widely used in the secure data sharing with minimal risk of data leakage. we will discuss this mechanism in details in the next section 3.2.2. the ehr systems can upload medical record and other information in the blockchain. if these data is stored directly in the blockchain network, it will increase computational overhead and storage burden due to the fixed and limited block size. what's more, these data would also suffer from privacy leakage. to solve these problems, most relevant research and applications [36, 42, 43, 44] yue et al. [39] proposed that a simple unified indicator centric schema (ics) could organize all kinds of personal healthcare data easily in one simple "table". in this system, data is uploaded once and retrieved many times. they designed multi-level index and most systems in the previous sections are adopted third-party database architecture. the third-party services (such as cloud computing) in the far-end assist the users to improve quality of service (qos) of the applications by providing data storage and computation power, but with a transmission latency. such a storage system has gained common acceptance depending on a trusted third table (dht). nguyen et al. [48] designed a system that integrates smart contract with ipfs to improve decentralized cloud storage and controlled data sharing for better user access management. rifi et al. [49] also adopted ipfs as the candidate for off-chain database to store large amounts of sensor personal data. 475 wang et al. [50] designed a system that utilizes ipfs to store the encrypted file. the encryption key of the file is first encrypted using abe algorithm, then encrypted with other information (file location hash ciphertext) using aes algorithm. only when the attributes set of the requestor meets the access policy predefined by data owner, the requestor can obtain the clue from blockchain, then download and decrypt the files from 480 ipfs. 22 table 4 : systems requirements that have been met in table 3 paper security privacy anonymity integrity authentication controllability auditability accountability [44] [47] [42] [45] [36] [43] [48] [49] [50] according to table 3 and 4, the common architecture for data storage in the ehr system is shown in fig. 5 . the advantages of integrating off-line storage into blockchain systems are as follows. first, detailed medical record is not allowed to access directly for patient's data privacy preserving. second, it helps to reduce the throughput require-485 ment significantly, since only transaction record and a few metadata are stored in the blockchain. besides, data pointers stored in the block can be linked to the location of raw data in the off-chain database for data integrity. however, it is difficult to fully trust the third parties to store these sensitive data. meanwhile, it may also contradict the idea of decentralization. further research is needed 490 to accelerate the acceptance of distributed storage systems in practice, like ipfs. also, the next step should be to improve the storage architecture of blockchain for high storage capacity. healthcare industry relies on multiple sources of information recorded in different sys-495 tems, such as hospitals, clinics, laboratories and so on. healthcare data should be stored, retrieved and manipulated by different healthcare providers for medical purposes. however, such a sharing approach of medical data is challenging due to heterogeneous data structures among different organizations. it is necessary to consider interoperability of 25 figure 5 : common architecture for data storage in the ehr system data among different organizations before sharing data. we will introduce interoperabil-500 ity first. interoperability of ehr is the degree to which ehr is understood and used by multiple different providers as they read each other's data. interoperability can be used to standardize and optimize the quality of health care. interoperability can mainly be 505 classified into three levels: • syntactic interoperability: one ehr system can communicate with another system through compatible formats. • semantic interoperability: data can be exchanged and accurately interpreted at the data field level between different systems. the lack of unified interoperability standards has been a major barrier in the highperformance data sharing between different entities. according to the study [51] , there in some studies [10, 52, 53] , they adopted the health level seven international (fhir) as data specification and standard formats for data exchange between different organi-520 zations. the criterion was created by hl7 healthcare standards organization. the system in [10] bahga et al. [56] proposed that cloud health information systems technology architecture (chistar) achieves semantic interoperability, defines a general purpose set of data structures and attributes and allows to aggregate healthcare data from disparate 545 data sources. besides, it can support security features and address the key requirements of hipaa. chen et al. [57] designed a secure interoperable cloud-based ehr service with continuity of care document (ccd). they provided self-protecting security for health documents with support for embedding and user-friendly control. in a word, interoperability is the basic ability for different information systems to communicate, exchange and use data in the healthcare context. ehr systems following international standards can achieve interoperability and support for data sharing between multiple healthcare providers and organizations. we will discuss data sharing in detail next. it is obviously inconvenient and inefficient to transfer paper medical record between different hospitals by patients themselves.sharing healthcare data is considered to be a critical approach to improve the quality of healthcare service and reduce medical costs. though current ehr systems bring much convenience, many obstacles still exist in 560 the healthcare information systems in practice, hinder secure and scalable data sharing across multiple organizations and thus limit the development of medical decision-making and research. as mentioned above, there are risks of the single-point attack and data leakage in a centralized system. besides, patients cannot preserve the ownership of their own private 565 data to share with someone who they trust. it may result in unauthorized use of private data by curious organizations. furthermore, different competing organizations lacking of trust partnerships are not willing to share data, which would also hinder the development of data sharing. in this case, it is necessary to ensure security and privacy-protection and return the 570 control right of data back to users in order to encourage data sharing. it is relatively simply to deal with security and privacy issues when data resides in a single organisa-tion, but it will be challenging in the case of secure health information exchange across different domains. meanwhile, it also needs to consider further how to encourage efficient collaboration in the medical industry. secure access control mechanism as one of common approaches requires that only authorized entities can access sharing data. this mechanism includes access policy commonly consisting of access control list (acl) associated with data owner. acl is a list of requestors who can access data, and related permissions (read, write, update) to specific data. authorization is a function of granting permission to authenticated users in order to access the protected resources following predefined access policies. the authentication process always comes before the authorization process. access policies of this mechanism mainly focus on who is performing which action on what data object for which purposes. traditional access control approaches for ehrs 585 sharing are deployed, managed and run by third parties. users always assume that third parties (e.g. cloud servers) perform authentication and access requests on data usage honestly. however, in fact, the server is honest but curious. it is promising that combining blockchain with access control mechanism is to build a trustworthy system. users can realize secure self-management of their own data and 590 keep shared data private. in this new model, patients can predefine access permissions (authorize, refuse, revoke), operation (read, write, update, delete) and duration to share their data by smart contracts on the blockchain without the loss of control right. smart contracts can be triggered on the blockchain once all of preconditions are met and can provide audit mechanism for any request recorded in the ledger as well. there 595 are many existing studies and applications applying smart contract for secure healthcare data sharing. peterson et al. [10] proposed that patients can authorize access to their record only under predefined conditions (research of a certain type, and for a given time range). smart contract placed directly on the blockchain verifies whether data requestors meet 600 these conditions to access the specified data. if the requestor does not have the access rights, the system will abort the session. similarly, smart contracts in [58] can be used for granting and revocation of access right and notifying the updated information as smart contract in most systems includes predefined access policies depending on requestors' role/purposes and based-role/based-purpose privileges. however, it is inflexible to handle unplanned or dynamic events and may lead to potential security threats [60]. another mechanism, attribute-based access control (abac), has been applied in the secure systems to handle remaining issues in the extensions of rbac and enhance the security in some specific cases. the systems based on access control mechanism record any operation about access policies by logging. however, it is vulnerable to malicious tampering without the assurance of integrity of these logs in the traditional systems. blockchain and smart contract can perform access authorization automatically in a secure container and make sure the integrity of policies and operations. thus, access control mechanism integrated with blockchain can provide secure data sharing. the diversified forms of access control can be applied into different situations depending on the demands for system security. audit-based access control aims to enhance the 670 reliability of posteriori verification [64] . organization-based access control (orbac) [65] can be expressed dynamically based on hierarchical structure, including organization, role, activity, view and context. 1. user's identity may be exposed without de-identification mechanism table 6 : systems requirements that have been met in table 5 paper security privacy anonymity integrity authentication controllability auditability accountability [10] [58] [44] [49] [48] [59] [39] [62] 36 table 6 : systems requirements that have been met in table 5 paper security privacy anonymity integrity authentication controllability auditability accountability [61] [66] [67] [68] [50] [69] [42] [70] [71] based on the information in the table 5 we can also use cryptography technology to enhance secure data sharing and the security of access control mechanism in most ehr systems. dubovitskaya et al. [66] proposed a framework to manage and share emrs for cancer patient care based on symmetric encryption. patients can generate symmetric encryption keys to encrypt/decrypt the sharing data with doctors. if the symmetric key is 685 compromised, proxy re-encryption algorithm on the data stored in the trusty cloud can be performed and then a new key will be shared with clinicians according to predefined access policies. only the patients can share symmetric keys and set up the access policies by smart contract to enhance the security of sharing data. xia et al. [67] designed a system that allows users to get access to requested data from 690 a shared sensitive data repository after both their identities and issuing keys are verified. in this system, user-issuer protocol is designed to create membership verification key and transaction key. user-verifier protocol is used for membership verification, then only valid users can send data request to the system. ramani et al. [68] utilized lightweight public key cryptographic operations to enhance 695 the security of permissioned requests (append, retrieve). nobody can change the patients' data without sending a notification to patients, since the requested transaction will be checked whether it has signed by the patient before being stored on a private blockchain. wang et al. [50] designed a system that combines ethereum with attribute-based encryption (abe) technology to achieve fine-grained access control over data in the de-700 centralized storage system without trusted private key generator (pkg). the encryption key of the file is stored on the blockchain in the encrypted format using aes algorithm. requestors whose attributes meet the access policies can decrypt the file encryption key and then download the encrypted file from ipfs. besides, the keyword search implemented by smart contract can avoid dishonest behavior of cloud servers. liu et al. [42] proposed blockchain-based privacy-preserving data sharing scheme for emr called bpds. the system adopted content extraction signature (ces) [73] 715 which can remove sensitive information of emrs, support for selective sharing data and generate valid extraction signatures to reduce the risk of data privacy leakage and help enhance the security of access control policies. besides, users can use different public keys for different transactions to keep anonymous. huang et al. [70] designed a blockchain-based data sharing scheme in the cloud com-720 puting environment to solve the trust issue among different groups using group signature and ensure the reliability of the data from other organizations. requestors can verify the as shown in table 5 and 6, cryptography technology can protect sensitive data directly and improve the traditional access control mechanism to meet the demand for security and privacy. however, public key encryption has high computational overhead 735 and trusted pki is necessary for authentication. the similar problem exists in a trusted pkg as one of important components of abe. besides, how to transmit the shared key securely should be addressed in the symmetric encryption. as mentioned before, mpc may not be suitable for wearable devices in the iot context due to high computational cost. it is necessary to improve these algorithms to adapt devices/sensors with limited 740 resource. above all, blockchain as a secure, immutable and decentralized framework makes the 39 control right of data return to patients themselves in the healthcare industry. as shown in fig. 6 , the combination of access control mechanism by smart contract with cryptography technology on sensitive data can be achieved secure data sharing among different 745 individuals and institutions. meanwhile, all of record is included in the immutable public ledger to ensure the integrity and reliability of data and minimize the risk of raw data leakage. concerning potential dishonest behavior or wrong results of third parties (cloud servers) holding large amounts of raw/encrypted data, blockchain offers immutable his-750 torical record for traceability and accountability, sometimes with cryptography technique (such as group signature). next we discuss about secure audit to enhance the security of ehr systems further. healthcare systems also rely on audit log management as security mechanism since 755 some exceptions may have resulted from the misuse of access privileges or dishonest behavior by third parties or data requestors. audit log can serve as proofs when disputes arise to hold users accountable for their interactions with patient record. immutable public ledger and smart contract in the blockchain can provide immutable record for all of access requests to achieve traceability and accountability. audit log mainly contains vital and understandable information: • timestamp of logged event • user id which requests the data • data owner id whose data is accessed • action type (create, delete, query, update) • the validation result of the request qi et al. [74] designed a data sharing model with the ability to effectively track the dishonest behaviour of sharing data as well as revoke access right to violated permissions and malicious access. the system provides provenance, audit and medical data sharing among cloud service providers with minimal risk of data privacy. the similar system in [67] provides auditable and accountable access control for shared cloud repositories among big data entities in a trust-less environment. azaria et al. [53] also provided auditability via comprehensive log. they mentioned that obfuscation for privacy needs further exploration while preserving auditability in the public ledger. fernandez et al. [75] designed a blockchain-based system called auditchain to manto improve quality of research by better reproducibility, the timestamped statistical analysis on clinical trials ensures traceability and integrity of each samples metadata in [77] based on blockchain which allows to store proofs of existence of data. the related analytical code to process the data must be timestamped in order that data is checked 790 and analysis is reproducible. timestamp in the blockchain will provide for better version control than git. the above-mentioned studies indicate that blockchain plays an important role in auditing and accountability. users can not only hold the control right of their own data, but also monitor all request operations for data audit and accountability when disputes 795 occur. above all, audit log provides reliable evidence for anomalous and potentially malicious behavior to improve the security of access control models. meanwhile, it brings benefits to the adjustment of healthcare service by gaining insight into personnel interactions and workflows in hospitals. store and process. currently, audit log data does not contain required and representative information reliably, which would be difficult to interpret or hardly access. it would get worse in the collaboration of multiple ehr organizations. in this case, it is necessary to consider how to achieve interoperable and well-formatted audit log standard for the 805 support of secure data exchange among different healthcare institutions. membership verification is the first step to ensure the security of any system before getting access to any resource. in the access control mechanism mentioned before, identity authentication is always first performed to make sure that specific rights are granted 810 to data requestors with legal identity before sharing data. common types of user authentication have pass-through authentication, biometric authentication and identity verification based on public key cryptography algorithms. public key infrastructure (pki) is commonly used, which relies on trusted third parties to provide membership management services. identity registration is performed in [44] with registrar smart contract to map valid string form of identity information to a unique ethereum address via public key cryptography. it can employe a dns-like implementation to allow the mapping of regulate existing forms of id. 835 zhang et al. [69] established secure links for wireless body area network (wban) area and wireless body area network (psn) area after authentication and key establishment through an improved ieee 802.15.6 display authenticated association protocol [78] . the protocol can protect collected data through human body channels (hbcs) and reduce computational load on the sensors. 840 xia et al. [67] designed an efficient and secure identity-based authentication and key agreement protocol for membership authentication with anonymity in a permissioned blockchain. the process of verification is a challenge-response dialog to prove whether the sender is authentic when the verifier receives a verification request from a user using shared key. most blockchain-based systems use pseudonyms to hide the real identity for privacy. however, there is conflict between privacy preserving and authenticity. that means how to verify the identity without exposing the information of real identity. in addition, adversaries or curious third parties can guess the real identity and relevant behavior pattern through inference attacks, such as transaction graph analysis. 850 shae et al. [79] designed an anonymous identity authentication mechanism based on zero-knowledge technology [80] , which can address two conflicting requirements: maintain the identity anonymous and verify the legitimacy of user identity as well as iot devices. sun et al. [45] proposed a decentralizing attribute-based signature (called dabs) scheme to provide effective verification of signer's attributes without his identity infor-855 mation leakage. multiple authorities can issue valid signature keys according to user's attributes rather than real identity and provide privacy-preserving verification service. other nodes can verify whether the data owner is qualified by verification key corresponding to satisfied attributes without revealing owner identity. hardjono et al. [81] designed an anonymous but verifiable identity scheme, called 860 chainachor, using the epid zero-knowledge proof scheme. these anonymous identities can achieve unlinkable transactions using different public key in the blockchain when 43 nodes execute zero-knowledge proof protocol successfully. they also provide optional disclosure of the real identity when disputes occur. biometric authentication is also widely used, such as face and voice pattern identifi-865 cation, retinal pattern analysis, hand characteristics and automated fingerprint analysis based on pattern recognition. lee et al. [35] proposed that human nails can be used for identity authentication since nails have the high degree of uniqueness. the system uses histogram of oriented gradients (hog) and local binary pattern (lbp) feature to extract the biometric identification 870 signature, then svm and convolutional neural network are utilized for authentication with high accuracy. this identity verification technology with dynamic identity rather than regular real identity information ensures user anonymity and privacy. the main goal of identity management is to ensure that only authenticated users can be authorized to access the specified resource. currently, most systems rely on 875 membership service component or similar providers for identity authentication. traditional authentication process mainly adopts password authentication and even transmit user account in the clear text. anyone can eavesdrop on the external connection to intercept user account. in this case, attackers or curious third parties may impersonate compromised users to gain access to sensitive data. it is difficult to find and rely on such a trustworthy third membership service party that validates user identity and accomplishes complex cross-heterogeneous domains authentication honestly without potential risk of real identity leakage. besides, typical blockchain systems cannot provide privacy-preserving verification due to public transaction record including pseudonyms and related behavior. in this case, curious third 885 servers or network nodes may collect large amounts of data to infer the real identity by statistical analysis. blockchain can also allow rollback models storage if false predication rate is high. blockchain stores the pointers of relevant data of retrained models in a secure and immutable manner. juneja et al. [43] proposed that retraining models indexed by pointers 930 in the blockchain can increase the accuracies for continuous remote systems in the context of irregular arrhythmia alarm rate. additionally, artificial intelligence can be applied to design automatic generation of smart contact to enhance secure and flexible operations. in the context of iot, the locations of products can be tracked at each step with radio-frequency identification (rfid), sensors or gps tags. individual healthy situation can be monitored at home via sensor devices and shared on the cloud environment where physical providers can access to provide on-time medical supports. however, as the use of sensors is experiencing exponential growth in various environ-940 ments, the security level of sensitive data of these sensors has to be improved. currently, a few studies focus on solving the above mentioned problems. related 980 research mainly focuses on the improvement of consensus algorithm, block size design [67] and so on. croman et al. [89] mainly improved the scalability of blockchain on latency, throughput and other parameters. the experiments showed that block size and generation inter-val in bitcoin are the first step toward throughput improvements and latency reduction without threat to system decentralization. new challenges for two data types in the blockchain-based system are throughput and fairness. two fairness-based packing algorithms are designed to improve the throughput 1000 and fairness of system among users. in the practical application scenario, how to encourage miners to participate in the network is important for the maintenance of trustworthy and stable blockchain. azaria et al. [44] proposed an incentive mechanism to encourage medical researchers and healthcare authorities as miners and create data economics by awarding for big data on hospital 1005 records to researchers. yang et al. [92] proposed a selection method in the incentive mechanism. providers have less significance (means the efforts that providers have been made on network maintenance and new blocks generation) with higher probabilities of being selected to carry out the task of new block generation and will be granted significance as bonus to reduce 1010 the selected probability in future. pham et al. [93] made further improvements on gas prices of blockchain, which can boost the priority in the processing transaction queue by automatically adjusting the gas price and then trigger an emergency contact to providers for on-time treatment immediately. meanwhile, it should be noted that all transactions can be "seen" by any node in the blockchain network. homomorphic encryption and zero knowledge proofs could be utilized to prevent data forensics by inference, maintain the privacy of individual information and allow computations to be performed without the leakage of input and output of computations. as the above statement, blockchain still has many limitations and more aggressive extensions will require fundamental protocol redesign. so it is urgent to be towards to the improvement of underlying architecture of blockchain for better service. in the context of iot, personal healthcare data streams collected from wearable devices are high in volume and at fast rate. large amounts of data can support for big 1025 data and machine learning to increase the quality of data and provide more intelligent health service. however, it may lead to high network latency due to the physical distance to mobile devices and traffic congestion on the cloud servers. besides, the mining process and some encryption algorithms may cost high computational power on resource-limited devices 1030 and restrict the use of blockchain. a new trend is increasingly moving from the function of clouds towards network edge with low network latency. it is mainly required by time-sensitive applications, like healthcare monitor applications. combining with edge computing, blockchain is broadened to a wide range of services from pure data storage, such as device configuration 1035 and governance, sensor data storage and management, and multi-access payments. if new technologies enter the market without some form of vetting, they should be adopted with care for example based on a cost-benefit-analysis. hence, to improve compliance, security, interoperability and other factors, we need to develop uniform stan-1040 dards, policies and regulations (e.g. those relating to data security and privacy, and blockchain ecosystem). for example, we would likely need different independent and trusted mechanisms to evaluate different blockchain solutions for different applications and context, in terms of privacy, security, throughput, latency, capacity, etc. we would also need to be able to police and enforce penalty for misbehavior and/or violations (e.g. non-compliance or not delivering as agreed in the contract). blockchain has shown great potential in transforming the conventional healthcare industry, as demonstrated in this paper. there, however, remain a number of research and operational challenges, when attempting to fully integrate blockchain technology 1050 with existing ehr systems. in this paper, we reviewed and discussed some of these challenges. then, we identified a number of 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some research issues and challenges blochie: a blockchain-based platform for healthcare information exchange a design of blockchain-based architecture for the security of electronic health record (ehr) systems a secure remote healthcare system for hospital using blockchain smart contract shuyun shi received the bachelor degree in 2019, from the school of computer 1290 she is currently working toward a master degree at the key laboratory of aerospace information security and trusted computing ministry of education he is currently a professor of the key laboratory of aerospace information security and trusted computing, ministry of education, school of cyber science and engineering, wuhan uni-1300 versity, wuhan 430072, china. his main research interests include cryptography and information security li li received her ph.d degree in computer science from computer school she is currently an associate professor at school of software, wuhan univer-1305 sity. her research interests include data security and privacy, applied cryptography and security protocols his research is focused on mobile computing, parallel/distributed computing, multi-agent systems, service oriented computing, routing and security issues in mobile ad hoc, sensor and mesh networks. he has more than 100 technical research papers in leading journals such as-ieee tii his research is supported from dst, tcs and ugc. he has guided many students leading to m.e. and ph.d australia day achievement medallion, and british computer society's wilkes award in 2008. he is also a fellow of the australian computer society digital rights management for multimedia interest group we thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions which helped us to improve the content and presentation of this paper. the authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest. 61 key: cord-338512-vz0jos3f authors: katz, rebecca; may, larissa; baker, julia; test, elisa title: redefining syndromic surveillance date: 2011-08-18 journal: j epidemiol glob health doi: 10.1016/j.jegh.2011.06.003 sha: doc_id: 338512 cord_uid: vz0jos3f with growing concerns about international spread of disease and expanding use of early disease detection surveillance methods, the field of syndromic surveillance has received increased attention over the last decade. the purpose of this article is to clarify the various meanings that have been assigned to the term syndromic surveillance and to propose a refined categorization of the characteristics of these systems. existing literature and conference proceedings were examined on syndromic surveillance from 1998 to 2010, focusing on lowand middle-income settings. based on the 36 unique definitions of syndromic surveillance found in the literature, five commonly accepted principles of syndromic surveillance systems were identified, as well as two fundamental categories: specific and non-specific disease detection. ultimately, the proposed categorization of syndromic surveillance distinguishes between systems that focus on detecting defined syndromes or outcomes of interest and those that aim to uncover non-specific trends that suggest an outbreak may be occurring. by providing an accurate and comprehensive picture of this field’s capabilities, and differentiating among system types, a unified understanding of the syndromic surveillance field can be developed, encouraging the adoption, investment in, and implementation of these systems in settings that need bolstered surveillance capacity, particularly lowand middle-income countries. abstract with growing concerns about international spread of disease and expanding use of early disease detection surveillance methods, the field of syndromic surveillance has received increased attention over the last decade. the purpose of this article is to clarify the various meanings that have been assigned to the term syndromic surveillance and to propose a refined categorization of the characteristics of these systems. existing literature and conference proceedings were examined on syndromic surveillance from 1998 to 2010, focusing on low-and middle-income settings. based on the 36 unique definitions of syndromic surveillance found in the literature, five commonly accepted principles of syndromic surveillance systems were identified, as well as two fundamental categories: specific and non-specific disease detection. ultimately, the proposed categorization of syndromic surveillance distinguishes between systems that focus on detecting defined syndromes or outcomes of interest and those that aim to uncover non-specific trends that suggest an outbreak may be occurring. by providing an accurate and comprehensive picture of this fieldõs capabilities, and differentiating among system types, a unified understanding of the syndromic surveillance field can be developed, encouraging the adoption, investment in, and implementation of these systems in settings that need bolstered surveillance capacity, particularly low-and middle-income countries. ª 2011 the field of syndromic surveillance is best understood through the context of global efforts to respond and adapt to modern-day surveillance challenges and disease threats. globalization and the ease of international spread of disease require improved global surveillance capacity in order to rapidly detect and contain public health emergencies. recognition of this need has led to increased efforts to enhance disease surveillance and demands examination of all available tools-one of which is syndromic surveillance. such thinking is exemplified by the world health organizationõs (who) decision to revise the international health regulations (ihr). as part of the 10-year ihr revision process, who sponsored a pilot study in 22 countries from 1997 to 1999 to evaluate syndromic reporting. it was concluded that ''syndromic reporting, although valuable within a national system, was not appropriate for use in the context of a regulatory framework'' [1] . the final negotiated ihr (2005) regulates detection, reporting and response within a more adaptive category of ''events that may constitute a public health emergency of international concern'' [2] . the ihr (2005) also obligates every member state of the who to build national core competency for disease surveillance. however, the regulations do not prescribe exactly how nations are to meet this core capacity. certain low-and middleincome countries-particularly those facing the need to rapidly strengthen disease surveillance and overall public health infrastructure to meet their ihr (2005) obligations-may be looking to syndromic surveillance options and opportunities. a report from the ihr (2005) negotiations stresses this point: ''because areas with the highest needs for surveillance of communicable diseases have often the poorest surveillance systems, new surveillance approaches, such as the surveillance of syndromes, adapted to poor laboratory infrastructure should be developed to respond to the challenge of development gaps'' [3] . in addition to the increased attention to syndromic surveillance in the negotiations of ihr (2005), syndromic surveillance has gained importance for national governments and has become widely used at the country level, particularly in high-income countries. examples include a syndromic surveillance system in the united kingdom based on data from the national telehealth system (nhs direct) and a system in denmark that utilizes ambulance dispatch records [4] . in the united states (us), state and local syndromic surveillance systems are widespread [5] , as evidenced by a recent survey that concluded, ''populations covered by health departments that reported conducting syndromic surveillance account for 72% of the us population'' [6] . spurred by a series of reports from the us government accountability office [7] and other organizations [8] , the us federal government has recently begun re-examining how to best ensure effective and efficient disease surveillance capacity. in this context, the centers for disease control and prevention (cdc) must re-evaluate biosurveillance for human health [9] . the united states agency for international developmentõs (usaid) predict program aims to integrate human and animal disease surveillance, primarily focused on the implementation of programs in developing nations [10] . researchers in the field of syndromic surveillance have similarly turned toward translating syndromic surveillance for use in lower resource settings [11] [12] [13] . a 2007 disease surveillance workshop held in bangkok, thailand, sponsored by the department of defense global emerging infections surveillance and response system (dod-geis) and johns hopkins university/applied physics laboratory (jhu/apl), focused on the adaptation of electronic surveillance tools to low-and middle-income settings [11] . in order to reenergize these discussions (which were begun by 13 countries and other stakeholders during the 2007 workshop), clarification of the definition, functions, and challenges of syndromic surveillance is needed. doing so would help ensure that syndromic surveillance will be adopted in all places where it would be of benefit. since syndromic surveillance systems began being used in the 1990s and became widespread in early 2000, vast applications of these systems have demonstrated many capabilities and uses. there are numerous variations among syndromic surveillance system definitions, objectives, and surveillance methodologies, which is why there is a need for a comprehensive characterization of the breadth of the term ''syndromic surveillance.'' common themes across the literature have emerged, suggesting general agreement among those in the field. the commonly accepted principles of syndromic surveillance include: • early detection and response: most articles on syndromic surveillance discuss the value of these systems in signaling the presence of an abnormal trend with ''sufficient probability'' to warrant further investigation (without necessarily providing definitive detection) [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] . • use of ''continuously acquired'' pre-diagnostic information: by focusing on data collected prior to clinical diagnosis or laboratory confirmation, syndromic surveillance uses non-traditional health indicator data [17, 21, 22] . • possible situational awareness use: chretien and his co-authors describe situational awareness as ''monitoring the effectiveness of epidemic responses and characterizing affected populations'' [12] . by providing a tool for following the course of an outbreak, syndromic surveillance has value besides merely initial detection in augmenting public health surveillance as well as outbreak response [6, 11, 15, [23] [24] [25] . • providing reassurance that an outbreak is not actually occurring: by monitoring outbreak thresholds, as well as collecting data from a variety of sources, a syndromic surveillance system can provide information to public health authorities confirming or refuting the occurrence of an outbreak [17, 19, 24, 26] . • augments traditional public health surveillance: in order to improve outbreak detection [13, 17, 19] , several definitions of syndromic surveillance emphasize that its goal is to ''enhance, rather than replace, traditional approaches to epidemic detection'' [14] . despite these points of agreement and the popularity of syndromic surveillance systems in many countries, there is still little or no consensus regarding a standard definition encompassing the full scope of the term ''syndromic surveillance.'' according to mostashari and hartman, the term syndromic surveillance is ''imprecise and potentially misleading'' [27] . the first point of confusion is the fact that ''many of the systems under discussion do not monitor well-defined constellations of signs and symptoms (syndromes), but instead target non-specific indicators of health, such as a patient with a chief complaint of ôcoughõ or the sale of over-the-counter cold medication; conversely, many systems that do monitor syndromes (e.g., acute flaccid paralysis, reyeõs syndrome, or carpal tunnel syndrome) are not included in these discussions'' [27] . second, some refer to the term ''syndrome'' as a specific, clinically defined phenomenon, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) or acquired immune deficiency syndrome (aids), and others use it more loosely and non-specifically as simply a group of symptoms [28] . several researchers have proposed alternative names to differentiate the forms of syndromic surveillance; however, these suggestions for clarified terminology have not yet taken hold. ten other names that have been proposed in the literature include: outbreak detection systems, early warning systems, health indicator surveillance, prodromal/ ic surveillance, information system-based sentinel surveillance, pre-diagnosis surveillance, nontraditional surveillance, enhanced surveillance, drop-in surveillance, and biosurveillance [12, 19, 27, 28] . problematically, these terms overlap, contradict, or are inconsistently applied, maintaining the terminological confusion. further, several terms frequently applied to syndromic surveillance are not adequately descriptive to convey the type of system being referred to or do not distinguish between types of systems, and thus may not be appropriate as general, overarching terms. given the challenge of developing clearer terminology, the potentially confusing term ''syndromic surveillance'' is still being used [27] . due to the significant increase in applications of syndromic surveillance, and the new technologies and expanded potential of the tool-demonstrated by the evolution of the proceedings of the international society for disease surveillance (isds) conferences on syndromic surveillance [29] -it is evident that the field has expanded over the last decade. thus, there is now an even greater need for a consensus about what syndromic surveillance means. additionally, as plans to translate syndromic surveillance systems to lower resource settings proceed, a proper conceptualization of the systems could increase their acceptance and efficient use. the development and communication of a unified understanding of the field may encourage governments or localities to adopt, invest in, and implement syndromic surveillance, where appropriate, and thus enhance compliance with ihr (2005); this adoption in middle-and low-income nations is being explored in the ongoing work to identify exemplary case studies of successful utilization of syndromic surveillance [30] . the purpose of this article is to clarify the various meanings that have been assigned to the term syndromic surveillance and to propose a refined categorization of the characteristics of the systems. in an effort to capture the variety of definitions and explanations of syndromic surveillance in the literature, medline, scopus, google scholar, proceedings from all isds conferences, and previous literature reviews and reference lists related to this topic were searched from 1998 to 2010. search terms included ''syndromic surveillance'' and the 10 other terms mentioned above, which are considered synonymous with syndromic surveillance. in addition to general overview articles, the set of articles pertaining to country-and region-specific systems were narrowed by including the terms ''low-income'' and ''developing country'' to fit the emphasis on the translation of these systems to lower resource settings. through a review of titles, abstracts, and fulllength articles, 81 general articles were identified describing and evaluating syndromic surveillance systems along with several hundred articles delineating surveillance systems implemented in specific countries or regions. within the articles collected, those that defined syndromic surveillance or provided a description of fundamental aspects of these systems were selected and compiled for comparison. in total, 43 separate articles defined syndromic surveillance, of which 36 provided unique definitions. a majority of the unique definitions found came from overview of articles of syndromic surveillance, rather than countryspecific articles. however, the country-specific articles provided distinguishing examples of systems being implemented in various settings. table 1 contains the 36 unique definitions of syndromic surveillance found in the literature. the five general points of agreement among those in the field and mentioned above are frequently noted in the definitions and are designated in the set of columns on the far right. the two shaded columns indicate that there are two fundamental categories of syndromic surveillance systems conveyed by the collection of definitions. these two categories involve the same investigational approach, and may even be components of the same system, but monitor two distinct outcome types: specific and non-specific outcomes. within the two fundamental categories of syndromic surveillance (defined further below), all five principles are relevant, with the principles of early detection and response and the use of pre-diagnostic information being the most commonly referred to across the definitions. the literature review yielded multiple articles that noted the distinction between specific and non-specific surveillance systems. in a foundational article introducing the field of syndromic surveillance to a wider audience, sosin explains that indicators of a disease outbreak can either be suggestive of ''highly specific syndrome[s]'' or ''non-specific expressions of the target diseases that occur before a diagnosis would routinely be made'' [18] . the following year, an article based on recommendations from a cdc working group contrasted surveillance of a syndrome that ''is relatively specific for the condition of interest'' (such as acute flaccid paralysis as ''a syndromic marker'' in the detection of poliomyelitis) to surveillance with a broader purpose, such as ''sexually transmitted disease detection and control'' [35] . more recently, fricker differentiates ''well-defined'' data that are ''linked to specific types of outbreaks'' to data that are ''vaguely defined and perhaps only weakly linked to specific types of outbreaks, such as over-the-counter sales [14] x x x x x x centers for disease control and prevention [33] x x x pavlin [21] x x x reingold [34] x x x smolinski et al. [28] x x x x sosin [18] x x x x sosin [19] x x x x x x buehler [35] x x x x mmwr editors [36] x x henning [26] x x lombardo et al. [37] x x mandl et al. [22] x x x stoto et al. [16] x x x ang et al. [38] berger et al. [17] x x x x stoto et al. [39] x x x chaves and pascual [40] x morse [41] x x buehler et al. [6] x x x x x centers for disease control and prevention [20] x x chretien et al. [12] x x x x x chretien et al. [11] x x x fearnley [42] x x fricker [43] x x x fricker et al. [15] x x x x x jefferson et al. [44] x x x nordin et al. [39] tsui et al. [46] x buehler et al. [23] x x x gault et al. [47] x may et al. [13] x x sintchenko and gallego [24] x x x zhang et al. [48] x x x josseran et al. [49] x of cough and cold medication or absenteeism rates'' [43] . fricker continues his summary of the types of syndromic surveillance by observing that the meaning of the term ''syndrome'' has evolved in the context of syndromic surveillance: ''a syndrome is ôa set of symptoms or conditions that occur together and suggest the presence of a certain disease or an increased chance of developing the diseaseõ. in the context of syndromic surveillance, a syndrome is a set of non-specific pre-diagnosis medical and other information that may indicate the release of a bioterrorism agent or natural disease outbreak'' [emphasis ours] [43] . clearly this term ''syndromic'' as it is narrowly defined imperfectly captures the full range of these systems. an adjustment of the term, while maintaining the root of its meaning to ensure continuity in the field, can help strengthen and expand understanding of this field. table 2 outlines the two categories of syndromic surveillance system types-specific and non-specific. as explained above and demonstrated in the literature, the purposes of each syndromic surveil-lance category are different. whereas the ''specific disease/syndrome detection'' category focuses on detecting defined syndromes or a defined outcome of interest, the ''non-specific disease detection'' category aims to monitor or uncover non-specific indicators/trends that suggest an outbreak may be occurring. based on this distinction, an alteration of the term ''syndromic surveillance'' to ''syndrome-based'' surveillance (sbs) referring to the more specific type of surveillance and ''syndromic-non-specific'' surveillance (sns) referring to the now more common, non-specific category of disease detection is proposed. the categorization of sbs and sns is confirmed by the examined literature and will be used throughout the remainder of the article to refer to these categories of surveillance. because of the terminological confusion with syndromic surveillance, this proposed categorization is necessary. newcomers to the field of syndromic surveillance frequently have a narrow perspective of what these systems entail. initial misconceptions include the false belief that it is surveillance based solely on syndromes (such as acute flaccid paralysis) or that this type of surveillance requires significant information technology (it) capacity. the former point is immediately early symptoms (such as gastrointestinal complaints, influenza-like illness) example: an increase in gastrointestinal illness cases indicating a water-borne outbreak data sources ''constellations of medical signs and symptoms in persons seen in various clinical settings'' [35] , such as icd-9 codes in addition to the types of data sources at left, unusual patterns in health-related behaviors (e.g., over-the-counter and health product purchases, such as cough medicine; and absenteeism from work or school) example ''the syndromes to be notified where an outbreak is of urgent international public health importance are: acute hemorrhagic fever syndrome, acute respiratory syndrome, acute diarrheal syndrome, acute jaundice syndrome, [and] acute neurological syndrome. in addition, any other syndrome of severe illness not included in the above should be notified if an outbreak is of urgent international public health importance'' [31] ''[in developing countries,] syndromic surveillance can identify outbreaks that do not fall into pre-established diagnostic categories, a capability essential for prompt control of new or changing diseases'' [12] southeast asiaõs early warning outbreak recognition system (ewors) provides surveillance of 29 non-specific signs and symptoms, which are not grouped into specific syndromes [50] clarified by separating the definition of syndromic surveillance into two separate terms: sbs and sns. the latter point concerning technological capacity will be discussed later in the text where the characteristic of technological dependence is described as a gradation within the two larger categories. other attempts to categorize syndromic surveillance systems have also divided the field into two separate components; however, these categorizations do not encompass the full range of systems and most critical distinctions evident in the literature. one attempt separated systems into those based on a ''data collection system that is dedicated to the purpose of this public health surveillance'' (e.g., during a specific event) and those for the day-to-day monitoring of ''data that are routinely collected for other purposes'' [27] . another categorization divided systems by data source: those data sources based on the use of health-care services and those based on health-related behaviors [6] . while these are useful distinctions to make when examining syndromic surveillance systems, they are not the most fundamental. the proposed categorization within the scope of this research addresses the most critical distinction among syndromic surveillance systems, which is the level of specificity of the outcome under surveillance. the distinction between data sources as sub-categories within each of the two larger categories (specific and non-specific detection) is taken into consideration because there is a fair amount of overlap. as noted in table 2 , the data sources used in sns systems can include those data sources used in sbs systems, but frequently focus primarily on pre-clinical data. data sources for public health surveillance have been traditionally divided into three levels: ''preclinical data, clinical pre-diagnostic data, and diagnostic data. syndromic surveillance usually uses two types of data sources: pre-clinical and clinical pre-diagnostic data; traditional surveillance generally focuses on diagnostic data'' [17] . these levels can be further divided among the two categories of syndromic surveillance, with the sns category being largely comprised of pre-clinical data, whereas the sbs category is focused on clinical pre-diagnostic data. the 36 definitions are rife with examples of each level of data source. frequently cited clinical prediagnostic data sources for the sbs systems include: patient chief complaints or icd-9 coded health information from clinical records (outpa-tient, emergency department, and hospital), billing databases, and emergency department triage and discharge data. though icd-9 coded health information is a form of diagnostic information, experts in the field of syndromic surveillance have suggested that general groupings of icd-9 codes can be considered early diagnostic data [33, 35, 38, 43] . pre-clinical data used in sns systems are often pulled from existing databases intended for other purposes [21, 22, 24, 27] and are therefore ''weakly linked'' to the target disease [43] . examples include ''. . . ôindicatorõ (pre-diagnostic) data (e.g., syndromes, medication sales, absenteeism, patient chief complaints)'' [12] , pharmacy records, telephone health advice/consultation, poison control centers, 911 calls, ''phone calls to or internet use of a health-care information site'' [18] , laboratory test requests/orders [35] , veterinary health records, health department requests for influenza testing [48] , health care utilization patterns [24] , ambulance services, and number of hospital admissions. environmental data sources and water utility complaint lines [17] are similarly non-specific. within the two overarching categories of sbs and sns, three additional sub-classifications became evident through the literature review, specifically surveillance to detect influenza-like illness and possible bioterrorism events, as well as the gradations in technological capacity. one common use of syndromic surveillance is for the monitoring and detection of influenza-like illness (ili), which is unique in that it falls within both specific and non-specific surveillance categories. as a specific syndrome, ili can be used for monitoring known strains: the ili syndrome is useful for ''clarify[ing] the timing and characteristics of annual influenza outbreaks'' [18] . conversely, in sns, an increased number of cases of respiratory symptoms and fever could indicate a bioterrorism-related event or a new strain of a virus with pandemic potential. as previously mentioned, syndromic surveillance has evolved from specific disease detection to encompassing more non-specific disease detection. in line with this change, and in response to the anthrax event in 2001, syndromic surveillance came to be seen as potentially useful for the detection of bioterrorism outbreaks. its utilization of data from a variety of sources makes it a valuable addition to traditional surveillance methods [22] . while bioterrorism detection is not typically the primary use of syndromic surveillance today, non-specific disease detection continues to be thought of and investigated as a biosecurity tool [20] . those in the bioterrorism field explain that syndromic surveillance, when applied to large, concentrated events, can ''detect the early manifestations of illness that may occur during a bioterrorism-related epidemic. . . [such as] the prodromes of bioterrorism-related disease. . . [but] other uses of syndromic surveillance include detecting naturally occurring epidemics'' [14] , and it is more widely applicable than as merely a tool for bioterrorism detection [18] . the incorporation of biosecurity concepts into the syndromic surveillance field has contributed to the broadening of the five syndrome categories defined by who in 1998 (''acute hemorrhagic fever syndrome, acute respiratory syndrome, acute diarrheal syndrome, acute jaundice syndrome, and acute neurological syndrome'') [31, 51] to include additional categories of symptoms that can be monitored through non-specific surveillance. a cdc-led, multi-agency workgroup identified 11 ''syndrome categories to be monitored that were indicative of the clinical presentations of several critical bioterrorism-associated conditions,'' including several of the who syndrome categories as well as more non-specific symptoms such as ''rash'' and ''fever'' [33, 5, 6 ]. within each of the two categories-specific (sbs) and non-specific (sns)-there are varying degrees of technology that can be used for the syndromic surveillance system. depending on the data sources available and the outcome of interest, some systems require significant it and electronic capabilities [6] . however, there are also examples of less it-dependent systems that monitor specific syndromes and/or non-specific disease indicators [44] . thus, the distinction between high and low it dependence is considered a sub-category within each of the two larger categories. the literature review revealed that highly automated systems tend to be used in more developed countries, for large catchment areas, and when there is a focus on bioterrorism. typically, these systems involve electronic collection and analysis of data [49] , potentially utilizing the ''automated extraction of data from electronic medical records'' [38] . on the other hand, less automated, less it-dependent systems are more frequently seen in developing countries and often incorporate some element of manual data entry, extraction, or analysis, or the involvement of fax or mobile technology [52] , resulting in detection that is ''near real-time'' as opposed to ''real-time'' [53] . in a basic form, syndromic surveillance ''is a feasible and effective tool for surveillance in developing countries'' and should be supported [13] . given the significant applicability of syndromic surveillance systems to lowand medium-resource countries, it is critical that the definition of syndromic surveillance not be limited to highly it-dependent, strictly automated systems. clearly, though, where infrastructure allows, ''automation of the full cycle of surveillance'' allows for more real-time results [6] . early syndromic surveillance systems, including those part of the 1997-1999 who pilot study and as described in the 1998 update on the revision of the ihr, were largely focused on monitoring health events ''for which the case definition is based on a syndrome. . . e.g., acute hemorrhagic fever syndrome, acute respiratory syndrome'' [32] . over time, the systems have transitioned to monitoring less specific outcomes [43] . morse summarized this transition well: syndromic surveillance ''once referred to the use of clinical syndromes as criteria for reporting. now, it usually means data collected from automated non-diagnostic systems such as pharmacy records, ambulance call categories, personnel absences, or emergency department chief complaints'' [41] . of the 36 unique definitions found in the literature review, several appeared to be overly narrow and might contribute to the confusion ascribed to this term. most of these narrow definitions suggested that syndromic surveillance is limited to highly it-dependent systems, require automation or immediate analysis, or are limited to one function, such as bioterrorism [16, 26, 39, 45] . the literature review makes evident that many systems that are considered ''syndromic surveillance'' are less it-dependent, may include some manual component, and have much broader applicability. the importance of taking an all-inclusive view to the field of syndromic surveillance is put best by fricker: ''a myopic focus only on early event detection for bioterrorism in syndromic surveillance systems misses other important benefits electronic biosurveillance can provide, particularly the potential to significantly advance and modernize the practice of public health surveillance'' [43] . an important contribution of a syndromic surveillance system is that it can be established in countries of any resource level. a broad definition, accounting for all of the purposes of syndromic surveillance-and acknowledging the flexibility of the infrastructure requirements-will facilitate its introduction and use in a variety of settings. a recent review described 10 syndromic surveillance systems in developing countries, demonstrating the ''feasibility of ôlow-techõ syndromic surveillance in low resource countries'' [13] , ewors being one commonly cited example in southeast asia [52] . in developing countries, data sources not traditionally employed in surveillance can be useful, such as environmental sources assisting the detection of vector-borne and neglected tropical diseases, monitoring indoor resting densities of vectors, climate and land use data, and satellite imagery [40] . surveillance of sexually transmitted infections could also be augmented by syndromic surveillance. according to who, syndromic surveillance of non-specific symptoms, including ''urethral discharge and genital ulcer, are potentially useful for monitoring trends in std incidence'' [54] . as the field has expanded, the truly broad nature of these surveillance systems has become apparent. today, the term ''syndromic surveillance'' imperfectly describes all forms of syndromic surveillance systems. fearnley suggests, ''this terminological instability reflects an underlying ontological and normative instability,'' and without a generalized consensus of the definition of syndromic surveillance, ''designers and users [may] continue to dispute what syndromic systems can and should do'' [42] . based on the results of the literature review, and in order to improve the conceptualization of this term, it was necessary to categorize syndromic surveillance into sbs and sns, based on the fundamentals of specific and non-specific disease detection. the sub-categorization of the systems by data source and it-capacity required is based on the broad range of features that constitute syndromic surveillance systems. prior categorizations, described above, have not sufficiently encapsulated all that syndromic surveillance can entail. recognizing that syndromic surveillance systems comprise these two categories with two different purposes helps clarify the added value of this kind of surveillance and may reduce ontological instability. it is recognized, as mentioned above, that in practice, the distinction between specific and non-specific syndromic surveillance categories can be lost, since many of these systems-particularly those in the united states-incorporate both categories within the same system. these dual-function systems (specific and non-specific detection) collect data from several sources-both the pre-clinical and clinical non-diagnostic types. nevertheless, the acceptance and application of improved terminology regarding these systems can reduce ambiguity in the field and increase adoption of syndromic surveillance systems where appropriate. future research must explore the combination of the sbs and sns systems in more depth. these ongoing questions highlight the importance of incorporating robust system evaluation into future syndromic surveillance implementation efforts. empirical, quantifiable evidence about the utility of these systems for improved surveillance and detection must be established. such evidence will be essential for decision makers contemplating investing in syndromic surveillance to help meet ihr (2005) obligations. despite early concerns about the benefits of the syndromic approach to surveillance [34, 42] and the continued need for further research, this approach has been proven successful in a wide variety of settings [5, 17, 18, 30] . this paper has attempted to take a broad perspective on the field of syndromic surveillance, acknowledging the numerous syndromic surveillance systems that have been making important contributions to public health for over a decade, and summarizes the termõs many definitions. by providing an accurate and comprehensive picture of this fieldõs capabilities, and differentiating between sbs and sns, it is hoped that syndromic surveillance will be seen more widely as a tool that can help any nation (high, middle, or low income) build comprehensive disease surveillance capacity. all authors contributed to this manuscript. rebecca katz and larissa may conceptualized the project, directed the research, and reviewed and edited drafts of the manuscript. elisa test and julia baker conducted the literature review and drafted the manuscript. all authors approved the final article. this work was supported by a grant from the george washington university research facilitating funds. the sponsor had no role in the study beyond providing financial support for researchersõ time. revision of the international health regulations: progress report epidemiological surveillance and international health regulations syndromic surveillance -a european perspective. the international society for disease surveillance: global outreach committee enewsletter evaluation challenges for syndromic surveillance-making incremental progress syndromic surveillance practice in the united states: findings from a survey of state, territorial, and selected local health departments biosurveillance: efforts to develop a national biosurveillance capability need a national strategy and a designated leader 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early detection of outbreaks. recommendations from the cdc working group preface to syndromic surveillance: reports from a national conference essence ii and the framework for evaluating syndromic surveillance systems an assessment of electronically captured data in the patient care enhancement system (paces) for syndromic surveillance statistical methods in counterterrorism: game theory, modeling, syndromic surveillance, and biometric authentication comparing models for early warning systems of neglected tropical diseases global infectious disease surveillance and health intelligence signals come and go: syndromic surveillance and styles of biosecurity syndromic surveillance evaluation of syndromic surveillance for the early detection of outbreaks among military personnel in a tropical country bioterrorism surveillance and privacy: intersection of hipaa, the common rule, and public health law a review of healthcare, public health, and syndromic surveillance performance of a syndromic system for influenza based on the activity of general practitioners automatic online news monitoring and classification for syndromic surveillance assessment of a syndromic surveillance system based on morbidity data: results from the oscour network during a heat wave ewors: using a syndromic-based surveillance tool for disease outbreak detection in indonesia who, fifty-first world health assembly. revision of the international health regulations: progress report by the director-general using nfc-enabled mobile phones for public health in developing countries surveillance for emerging infection epidemics in developing countries guidelines for surveillance of sexually transmitted diseases none declared. key: cord-347566-8x4vwarn authors: klerkx, laurens; begemann, stephanie title: supporting food systems transformation: the what, why, who, where and how of mission-oriented agricultural innovation systems date: 2020-08-05 journal: agric syst doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102901 sha: doc_id: 347566 cord_uid: 8x4vwarn agricultural innovation systems has become a popular approach to understand and facilitate agricultural innovation. however, there is often no explicit reflection on the role of agricultural innovation systems in food systems transformation and how they relate to transformative concepts and visions (e.g. agroecology, digital agriculture, agriculture 4.0, agtech and foodtech, vertical agriculture, protein transitions). to support such reflection we elaborate on the importance of a mission-oriented perspective on agricultural innovation systems. we review pertinent literature from innovation, transition and policy sciences, and argue that a mission-oriented agricultural innovation systems (mais) approach can help understand how agricultural innovation systems at different geographical scales develop to enable food systems transformation, in terms of forces, catalysts, and barriers in transformative food systems change. focus points can be in the mapping of missions and sub-missions of mais within and across countries, or understanding the drivers, networks, governance, theories of change, evolution and impacts of mais. future work is needed on further conceptual and empirical development of mais and its connections with existing food systems transformation frameworks. also, we argue that agricultural systems scholars and practitioners need to reflect on how the technologies and concepts they work on relate to mais, how these represent a particular directionality in innovation, and whether these also may support exnovation. agricultural systems transformation and more broadly the food systems transformation to which this contributes, has been the subject of debate for several decades already (dentoni et al., 2017; el bilali, 2019a , 2019b elzen et al., 2012; weber et al., 2020; klerkx et al., 2010; lamine, 2011) . however, recent years show a rise in concerns of how to manage future food security and sustainability without compromising food safety (vågsholm et al., 2020) . this has generated a social momentum for change regarding food systems development with studies concluding that the food system is 'broken' (oliver et al., 2018) and needs to be made 'planet-proof' (fraser and campbell, 2019; rockström et al., 2020; willett et al., 2019) , 'circular', 'regenerative' and 'inclusive' (gosnell et al., 2019; pouw et al., 2019; van zanten et al., 2019) . 1 kanter and boza, 2020; stephens et al., 2020) . as a response to these calls to transformative action, there is increasing scientific reflection on how to shape future food systems and the technologies and concepts that would underpin future food systems (herrero et al., 2020; kirova et al., 2019; klerkx and rose, 2020; mier et al., 2018; tittonell, 2014) . 2 in order to realize future food systems, there is a key role for agricultural innovation systems (ais) . 3 an ais is concerned with the networks of actors from science, business, civil society, and government that co-produce the suite of technological, social, and institutional innovations that co-shape these future food systems (gaitán-cremaschi et al., 2019; herrero et al., 2020; mier et al., 2018) . many of the future food systems envision novel forms of agriculture (e.g. urban farming, vertical agriculture, cellular agriculture), which deviate substantially from the current systems which are usually land-based and in rural areas. therefore, an ais increasingly incorporates actors from other sectors (e.g. information technology, energy, construction) and may employ a suite of generic technologies with applications in different sectors (e.g. solar energy generation, satellite technology, robot technology, nature based and ecologically regenerative solutions) frantzeskaki, 2019; laibach et al., 2019; pigford et al., 2018; tittonell, 2020) . also, it has been argued that agricultural innovation systems, in view of them supporting particular transition pathways towards future food systems, need to become 'mission-oriented' (klerkx and rose, 2020; pigford et al., 2018) . these missions need to tackle grand societal and planetary challenges, such as ecosystems integrity, biodiversity, climate change mitigation and adaptation as also comprised by the sustainable development goals (mazzucato et al., 2020) . the idea of mission orientation in innovation has become increasingly popular, and this has inspired concepts such as 'challenge-led innovation' and ' mission-oriented innovation policy' (boon and edler, 2018; mazzucato, 2016; rathenau institute, 2020) . mission-oriented innovation policy brings together elements of innovation policy, which traditionally aims to create economic growth, and transition policy, which principally aims to create change that is beneficial for society at large (alkemade et al., 2011; schot and steinmueller, 2018b; rathenau institute, 2020) . in this way, missionoriented innovation policy serves a clear transformative purpose and aspiration in view of realizing public goods such as a clean environment, biodiversity, animal welfare, and social justice (hall and dijkman, 2019; pigford et al., 2018; schlaile et al., 2017; timmermann, 2021) . instead of focusing on single technological fields or disciplines, mission-oriented policies are targeting a concrete problem/challenge, often cross-disciplinary, with a large impact and a well-defined time frame (wittmann et al., 2020) . also, there is a much stronger emphasis on directionality, to articulate the role of innovation and its contribution to a societal or environmental end (boon and edler, 2018; janssen et al., 2020; pigford et al., 2018; schlaile et al., 2017; rathenau institute, 2020) . this requires a more active and guiding role of the state with comprehensive innovation policies to govern innovation towards this end mazzucato, 2016) . moreover, state involvement moves from fixing market failure to shaping markets for societally relevant innovation and fixing directionality failures (robinson and mazzucato, 2019) . in the mission-oriented innovation policy framework, roughly four basic principles are maintained (mazzucato, 2016) the ideas on mission-oriented innovation are not completely new (robinson and mazzucato, 2019) , and have been inspired by earlier mission-oriented programs such as those from nasa. in agriculture, missions have also played a role, such as those underpinning productivity growth and modernisation in view of the green revolution (spiertz and kropff, 2011; wright, 2012) . however, these missions were often seen from an agricultural science system perspective rather than an ais perspective. 6 combining the idea of mission-oriented innovation policy with the innovation systems perspective introduced the concept of 'mission-oriented innovation systems', an idea alluded to earlier also for ais by pigford et al. (2018) . a missionoriented innovation system is defined as "the network of agents and set of institutions that contribute to the development and diffusion of innovative solutions with the aim to define, pursue and complete a societal mission" (hekkert et al., 2020:77) . steered by a clear directionality, it can be seen as "a temporary innovation system in which policy makers and other actors aim to coordinate innovation activities, with the objective of developing a coherent set of technological, institutional and behavioural solutions" (hekkert et al., 2020: 78) . the concept of mission-oriented innovation systems can be used to critically reflect upon how mission-oriented policies are nationally and supra-nationally embedded and how this loops back on the process of 2 also, it is the subject of debate of policy initiatives and think tanks such as the transforming food systems under a changing climate initiative led by ccafs (https://www.transformingfoodsystems.com/), the global alliance for the future of food (https://futureoffood.org/), the food systems dialogues (https://foodsystemsdialogues.org/), the commission on sustainable agriculture intensification (https://wle.cgiar.org/cosai/), the international panel of experts on sustainable food systems (ipes-food-http: //www.ipesfood.org/) and food tank (https://foodtank.com/), part of policy strategies such as the eu farm2fork strategy as part of the european union's green deal (europeanunion, 2020), the focus of technology events, incubators and accelerators such as evoke ag, food & farm 4.0, f&a next, and thought for food (https://www.farm-and-food.com/en/, https://www.fanext.com/, https:// evokeag.com/, https://thoughtforfood.org/), high level events such as the un food systems summit 2021 (https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/ food-systems-summit-2021/), and steering the agenda of science organizations such as the australian future foods crc (https://www. futurefoodsystems.com.au/), oxford university (https://www.oxfordmartin. ox.ac.uk/food/) in the united kingdom, and utrecht university (https:// www.uu.nl/en/research/sustainability/research/future-food-utrecht) and wageningen university and research (https://www.wur.nl/en/about-wageningen/strategic-plan.htm) in the netherlands. 3 for an extensive explanation of emergence of the ais concept see (hall et al., 2006) . ais have been variedly conceptualised and studied at a national or regional, sectoral (e.g. dairy, horticulture), and technology level (e.g. pest management, water harvesting) (kebebe et al., 2015; kruger, 2017; minh, 2019; sixt et al., 2018; turner et al., 2016) . see (klerkx et al., 2012) for an explanation how the different boundaries of ais are cross-cutting (e.g. an ais at a country level may contemplate several sectoral and technological ais, which in turn may have global characteristics). in the european union context, ais are generally referred to as agricultural knowledge and innovation systems (akis). 4 for a broader explanation, see also the insightful position paper of janssen et al. (2020) . see also the informative overview of key elements of missiondriven innovation policy by rathenau institute (2020), whose piece provided inspiration for the title of this paper, and also refers to the dutch circular agriculture mission (see further footnote 8). 5 lock-in implies that a (food) system becomes inert to change in view of the interplay of established infrastructures, institutional frameworks (rules, regulations, values), and sunk investments. it has been argued that many current food systems have such a lock-in (i.e. 'food regimes') (gaitán-cremaschi et al., 2019; leach et al., 2020) , but it may also happen that an emerging alternative system becomes locked-in before it has fulfilled the envisioned goal. 6 though earlier mission-oriented programmes incorporated ais principles such as transforum in the netherlands (fischer et al., 2012) , and the our land and water science challenge in new zealand ( innovation and system change. we argue that studying ais as a 'mission-oriented agricultural innovation system' (mais) would enable a better understanding of forces, interactions, catalysts, barriers in transformative food systems change, as so far studies on ais have rarely engaged with issues such as directionality, power, and the diversity of food systems futures (hall and dijkman, 2019; pigford et al., 2018; mier et al., 2018) . the purpose of this perspective is to get a debate and reflection started on this topic among agricultural systems and food systems scholars. to enact research on mais, there are different sorts of questions to be asked, in terms of what, why, who, where and how, on which we will elaborate in section 2 (see also table 1 ). as mazzucato (2016) argues, missions are about setting concrete directions and comprise a strategic portfolio of innovation projects (technological, social, institutional innovation), i.e. what meynard et al. (2017) have called 'coupled innovations'. the scope of these portfolios may vary and be driven by different expectations, narratives, assumptions, policy rationales and theories of change thornton et al., 2017) ). they may be science and discovery based and technology-driven or may be driven by visions for broad systemic change (polt, 2019; rathenau institute, 2020) . 7 to achieve food systems transformation, missions may include concepts such as agroecology, circular or regenerative agriculture, digital transformation of agriculture, bioeconomy, or protein transitions (gosnell et al., 2019; mockshell and kamanda, 2018; shepherd et al., 2018; tziva et al., 2020; van zanten et al., 2019; wezel et al., 2009) , or a combination of concepts (kristensen et al., 2016; laibach et al., 2019; mockshell and kamanda, 2018) . different existing and emerging agriculture and food technologies may support the former approaches (herrero et al., 2020) . these rather broad conceptual missions for food systems transformation may be underpinned by different types of 'sub-missions'. for example the broad mission of 'circular agriculture' may be achieved by submissions emphasizing either a place-based local model with closing cycles on farms, high in-field diversity and short supply chains, or a regional model in which different sorts of monoculture agriculture are connected within wider rural-urban interactions and material and energy flows (garrett et al., 2020; van zanten et al., 2019) . hence, these sub-missions represent diversity in possible future food systems transition pathways and supporting technologies (gaitán-cremaschi et al., 2020) . hence, it important to characterize what sort of mission a mais represents, how broad or narrow it is, how explicit it is made, and possibly what sub-missions may exist. finally, just as mais may have a layering in its mission, there may also be several competing, co-existing or converging mais (e.g. agroecology and digital transformation), in view of the diversity argument and portfolio approach (mazzucato, 2016) . 8 a variety of competing or co-existing sub-missions has already been observed for concepts such as agroecology and agriculture 4.0 (plumecocq et al., 2018; klerkx and rose, 2020; bellwood-howard and ripoll, 2020) . studying this diversity of mais can illuminate aligning or competing interests and infrastructures that have the potential to facilitate or constrain food systems change. as already alluded to in the previous point, it is important to determine where missions come from, as mission-oriented policy is a product of the system which it is supposed to change. sometimes, a mission may involve a truly novel focus, and sometimes it is a 'reframing' or 'rebranding' of ongoing efforts . missions may arise from a supply-push (e.g. by policy, science, or business), or rather from a demand-pull (raised by social movements and worried citizens and consumers) or a combination of these forces. they may arise 'pro-actively' in view of horizon scanning and scenario building exercises of future food systems (csirofutures, 2017; de wilde, 2016; hebinck et al., 2018; manners et al., 2020; rutter, 2012; van der weele et al., 2019; worldbank, 2019) , or rather 'reactively' when sectors or countries are faced with intractable problems such as intensifying droughts. in terms of the mission set up, it is important to consider if the missions provide strong steering and close down innovation options or consider a wide range of solutions that allow to be tinkered with, as this will result in different operationalization strategies of the missions . it is also important to contemplate whether mais can be considered as an 'alternative' ais or emerge from within the dominant ais of a country or sector. it has for example been argued that an ais in a country may on the one hand still be focused on improving 'business-asusual', while on the other hand may have the characteristics of a mais with highly transformative ambitions (pigford et al., 2018) . this would require what has been referred to as 'ambidexterity' (turner et al., 2017; rathenau institute, 2020) , i.e. the capacity of an ais to simultaneously manage existing networks and policies to support (incremental) innovation in current food systems, and create new networks and policies to overcome lock-in and support radical innovation and food systems transformation. perhaps paradoxically, food systems transformation thus also implies deconstruction of existing ais systems or 'exnovation', by for example phasing out research investments in a non-sustainable technology or practice (david and gross, 2019; kivimaa and kern, 2016; krüger and pellicer-sifres, 2020) . beyond questioning environmental sustainability of production systems and supply chain set-up, exnovation may also include questioning prevalent economic paradigms (e.g. neoliberal capitalism, economic growth) (feola, 2020; ghisellini et al., 2016; mier et al., 2018; giuliani, 2018) . this requires scrutinizing prevalent policy frames, goals, and policy instruments (candel and biesbroek, 2016; galli et al., 2020; janssen et al., 2020) . understanding the dynamics of mais emergence and its set up may as such shed light on particular policy framings, directionalities, and prevailing lock-in scenario's that influence the innovation and exnovation capacity of mais. 9 7 polt defines 4 types of missions: science missions (e.g. us cancer moonshotfundamental/basic research with high uncertainty), technological missions (e.g. concorde, apollo mission -specific goal with a strong focus on technological/ scientific solutions), transformative missions (e.g. german energiewendeaiming at systemic change), umbrella missions (e.g. german high tech strategy -comprehensive long-term policy frame). as an elaboration on this, wittmann et al. (2020) distinguish accelerator and transformer missions, the former more science or technology based, and the latter more broadly based on societal changes and economic and system infrastructure change. 8 for example, the policy agenda from the dutch ministry of agriculture emphasizes circular agriculture (ministry of agriculture, 2019), which according to ploegmakers et al. (2020) can already be divided in four narratives (footnote continued) (which may possibly underpin different sub-missions). the knowledge and innovation agenda of the dutch topsector approach for agri-food harbours six missions (https://kia-landbouwwatervoedsel.nl/). 9 innovation capacity is built through the practices, routines or processes used to mobilise, create and reconfigure arrangements of resources and capabilities in order to innovate (turner et al., 2017) . exnovation as a concept has had limited application in agriculture and food systems, but there is ongoing work, see e.g. the project of laura van oers (https://www.uu.nl/staff/lmvanoers/ research). to drive missions, mazzucato (2016) emphasizes direction setting by policymakers and highlights the role of the public sector. borrás and edler (2020) have refined these ideas and show that states can combine roles as observer, warner, mitigator, opportunist, facilitator, lead-user, enabler of societal engagement, gatekeeper, promoter, moderator, initiator, guarantor and watchdog. as we argued in the previous sections and following , missions may also arise from and be shaped by different actors beyond the state. while it can already be challenging to get 'conventional' ais actors to co-innovate (meynard et al., 2017) , mais may include food economy actors previously not considered to a large degree in agricultural transition and ais studies (weber et al., 2020) , such as agtech and foodtech start-ups, think tanks, and social enterprises. given this diversity of actors and values, there are processes of negotiation and contestation in mais. the greater complexity or 'wickedness' of the grand challenge, the greater the negotiation and contestation generally is wanzenböck et al., 2019) . 10 therefore it is important who is included in a mais, and who is excluded (herrero et al., 2020; leach et al., 2020; pigford et al., 2018) (see 2.1). and also, whether those excluded in one mais may be served by another mais which enacts transformative missions in a different way, thus accommodating a diversity of farmers and food system actors in terms of for example farm size, farming style, value chain model (klerkx and rose, 2020; stringer et al., 2020) . furthermore, the question is not only 'who' drives mais, but also 'what'. it is increasingly argued that also nature itself and biological and ecological agents (e.g. plants, animals, ecosystems) need to be seen as drivers in innovation systems in view of ideas on ecological feedback loops and biomimicry and the 'more-than-human' debate in rural sociology, as well as technologies such as robotics, digital twins and artificial intelligence (andersen and wicken, 2020; darnhofer, 2020; klerkx et al., 2019; pigford et al., 2018; van der jagt et al., 2020) . many proposed food systems transformation concepts transcend national, sectoral and technological boundaries. they are developed in many countries simultaneously, and are connected to supra-national or even global transformative policy narratives, and flows of technologies and capital (wanzenböck and frenken, 2020) . also, the spaces where missions are defined (see footnote 2) are highly globalized since they consider actors from different countries, or are shaped in virtual spaces (e.g. social media). hence, a mais may have the traits of a global innovation system (binz and truffer, 2017) and at the same time may be connected to specific national or even sector contexts. hence, the geographical boundaries of a mais are fluid janssen et al., 2020; pigford et al., 2018) . missions may 'travel' geographically and a mais may have a different pace of development in different countries. this is due to differences in state governance, and between cultural and regulatory contexts (e.g. the common agricultural policy and novel food legislation of the european union) that for example may determine consumer attitude (bekker et al., 2017; gupta et al., 2013) . such travel may be through multinational companies who introduce products in different countries (e.g. plant based protein products), through large international innovation programs and efforts from countries to 'export' missions (minkman and van buuren, 2019) , or through social movements (e.g. agroecology) (mier et al., 2018; wezel et al., 2018) . to understand mais, it is this important to unravel global linkages in enacting missions. also, one can compare mais development between countries, in terms of what missions are espoused by a country, the stage of development of missions and whether technologies and practices have reached certain stages of readiness to go to scale (herrero et al., 2020; sartas et al., 2020) . it has been argued that transformative change in agriculture is generally a process in which innovative processes in several 'innovation niches' gradually change incumbent systems or 'regimes' (el bilali, 2019a; geels et al., 2016; geels and schot, 2007; leach et al., 2012; olsson et al., 2014; pigford et al., 2018) , though it is increasingly recognized it may also come from within incumbent agricultural systems (gaitán-cremaschi et al., 2019; runhaar et al., 2020) . transformation is then the outcome of many 'small wins' instead of a sudden radical change (termeer and dewulf, 2019; termeer and metze, 2019) . equally, a mais does not establish overnight, but the network of actors connected to the mais, their interactions and the funding and innovation policies that support the mais will emerge gradually (eastwood et al., 2017) . though the mission-oriented innovation approach presupposes a degree of steering, some parts of a mais (being a complex adaptive system) will be self-organized without the support of central steering mechanisms. given the geographical fluidity of a mais, system complexity and degree of self-organization, the analytical boundaries of a mais not easy to establish. this affects mais characterization, as well as the accomplishment of a mission by a mais (or for that matter-several co-existing or competing mais). janssen et al. (2020) mais analysts, drawing on generic innovation system theories, can utilize some of the existing innovation system analysis frameworks such as functional-structural analysis, innovation policy mix analysis, or social network analysis to analyse mais (hermans et al., 2019; lamprinopoulou et al., 2014; spielman et al., 2011; wieczorek and hekkert, 2012; schut et al., 2015) . this can be combined with agricultural and food systems assessment and modelling approaches focusing for example on resilience (meuwissen et al., 2019; tittonell, 2020) , and drawing on recent frameworks to analyse different aspects of food systems transformation (gaitán-cremaschi et al., 2019; hebinck et al., 2018; kanter et al., 2015; termeer et al., 2018; zurek et al., 2018) . such analysis may make use of data science or citizen science driven approaches bringing together large datasets of biophysical and socioeconomic data to track mission evolution (beza et al., 2017; fielke et al., 2020; guo et al., 2020; klerkx et al., 2019; sauermann et al., 2020) . since mais are often global with national or regional 'branches', 10 a relevant consideration is where the boundaries of mais lie: from a food systems perspective, consumers are for example highly important in view of food preference and dietary change as well as food choice environments (retail and domestic environments) and food waste prevention and recycling willett et al., 2019) . new agtech and foodtech inspired food systems (e.g. urban agriculture, vertical agriculture) also bring new players into ais (pigford et al., 2018) . also, food systems may have a 'blue' component, based on food captured or cultivated in water bodies tezzo et al., 2020) so can aquaculture also be considered a form of agriculture and are 'aquaculture innovation systems' (joffre et al., 2018) also part of mais? one can even question whether mais is the correct term, if the mission is food systems transformation. for example, the concept of a 'food innovation system' (leach et al., 2020) may be then perhaps more appropriate. initiatives like the food systems dashboard (fanzo et al., 2020) , the cgiar platform for big data in agriculture, the agricultural science and technology indicators network (asti), and capacity development for agricultural innovation systems project (cdais) could play roles in enabling or hosting 'mais mapping'. 11 in this perspective paper, we have elaborated on the emerging concept of mais. we think its relevance lies in better understanding what drives transformative change, and create insights for policy makers and other ais actors on innovation system directionality and innovation policy mixes for enhancing food systems transformation. this may spur reflection on subnational, national and supranational innovation activities and the adequacy of mais for supporting transformative change (wanzenböck and frenken, 2020) . table 1 summarizes some of the possible actions that may be undertaken to investigate mais and do mais mapping. besides introducing a mais perspective to understand food systems transformation, this paper aims to stimulate agricultural systems scholars and field level practitioners to critically reflect upon their own positionality within a mais. 12 this includes asking questions on what mission or sub-missions they contribute to and what type of contribution they make, e.g. systems (re)-design, modelling and scenario building to support mission formulation, or monitoring and analysing effects of technologies and interventions in missions. 13 furthermore, in view of the need to create coupled innovations (meynard et al., 2017) as well as exnovation, it requires scrutiny of the actor networks and institutional structures they are part of and whether and how these align with a mais. this also includes asking questions with whom they need to engage to support the formulation and development of missions and what kind of incentive systems are needed to support these interactions. we conclude this paper by inviting the agricultural systems community as well as other natural and social scientists to progress the analysis of mais and develop it further as a concept and approach to understand and support agricultural innovation in relation to food systems transformation. the authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest related to this paper. questions and possible actions to further conceptual development and analysis of mais. map the diversity of food systems transformation missions, and the sub-missions that underpin them, including the contribution of different sorts of science (e.g., biophysical science, engineering, social and policy science) and the role of trans-disciplinarity why do mais emerge or are set-up? identify the (policy) drivers for missions and their emergence and evolution map the networks of actors driving missions and constituting mais, and the governance and power dynamics within mais where do mais play out? map mais at a (sub) country level, how they are linked supranationally, and what are the connections with other sectors how do mais evolve and how do we study this process? further develop methodologies to capture mais and connect them to ongoing agricultural innovation and food systems analysis 11 see https://cdais.net/home/, https://www.asti.cgiar.org/, https://bigdata. cgiar.org/. furthermore, generic observatories and programs on transformative innovation policy could be connected to, such as the mission-oriented innovation policy observatory https://www.uu.nl/en/research/copernicusinstitute-of-sustainable-development/mission-oriented-innovation-policyobservatory and the transformative innovation policy consortium http://www.tipconsortium.net/ (schot and steinmueller, 2018a) . 12 it has been argued that food systems transformation also has implications for advisory systems (klerkx, 2020) . but many scholars by being engaged in trans-disciplinary research and co-innovation are also field-level 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action, research and participation: roles of researchers in sustainability transitions future of food harnessing digital technologies to improve food system outcomes grand missions of agricultural innovation assessing sustainable food and nutrition security of the eu food system-an integrated approach the authors wish to thank the postdoc programme of the department of social sciences at wageningen university, which enabled the contribution of stephanie begemann to this paper. interactions with xianping jia (research institute of agricultural economics at northwest a & f university, china), jos van den broek, isabelle van elzakker and laurens hessels (rathenau institute, the netherlands), marko hekkert, wouter boon, matthijs janssen, simona negro, joeri wesseling, and giuseppe feola (innovation studies group, utrecht university, the netherlands), and barbara van mierlo (knowledge, technology and innovation group, wageningen university, the netherlands) were helpful in shaping the thinking which led to this paper. constructive comments by the reviewers and editor guillaume martin were very useful in finetuning the paper. key: cord-264974-hspek930 authors: timmis, kenneth; brüssow, harald title: the covid‐19 pandemic: some lessons learned about crisis preparedness and management, and the need for international benchmarking to reduce deficits date: 2020-05-03 journal: environ microbiol doi: 10.1111/1462-2920.15029 sha: doc_id: 264974 cord_uid: hspek930 nan if, despite the explicit warning of the world health organization in 2011 that 'the world is ill-prepared to respond to a severe influenza pandemic or to any similarly global, sustained and threatening public-health emergency' (https://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_files/wha64/a64_10en.pdf), it was not apparent to those in charge, and to the general public-i.e., those suffering from covid-19 infections and the funders of health services (tax/insurance payers)-that existing health systems had inherent vulnerabilities which could prove to be devastating when seriously stressed, the sars-cov-2 pandemic (e.g., see brüssow, 2020 ) has brutally exposed it now. in some countries, preparedness, despite being officially considered to be of strong operational readiness against health emergencies (kandel et al., 2020) , was inadequate at multiple levels (e.g., horton, 2020) . similarly, a fundamental lack of preparedness is the case for a number of impending non-health crises (e.g., global warming, poverty, the soil crisis, etc.). once we are over the covid-19 pandemic, important questions will be: what have we learned/can we learn and how can we improve our systems? below, we argue for the necessity for major realignment of crisis responsiveness, and indeed of health system operationality, based on international benchmarking and adequately funded preparedness. international benchmarking is mandatory, because it has become clear that there is a wide range of effectiveness in the ability of different countries with developed economies to respond to this crisis (and probably others), and the tax-paying public has no compelling reason to tolerate perpetuation of factors underlying poor responses to crises. disparity in country/regional responses to sars-cov-2 leaving aside for the moment decisions about whether to robustly contain the outbreak-to kill it by throttling-the classical strategy of infection control, but which leaves most of the population susceptible to a new outbreak, or attempt to manage an outbreak to achieve herd immunity and a population unsusceptible to a repeat outbreak, it is obviously imperative to know how the outbreak is spreading and how effective are any containment measures that are instituted, so that a change in course of action remains an option. widespread testing for the viral pathogen, with correct sampling and analysis procedures, is thus essential. this enables, inter alia, calculation of reliable mortality (case fatality) rates, 1 which ordinarily play a key role in determining crisis response policy, calculation of the basic reproduction number, r 0 , and reliable modelling of transmission and mortality trends. there have been enormous differences in testing coverages among countries. early predictions of transmission and mortality trends are only as good as the adequacy of the information fed into models so, with inadequate testing, prediction of trends are unreliable. mortality-based policy formulation for sars-cov-2 responses in some countries was based on incomplete information. • diagnostics and widespread testing are the basis of informed policy development for crisis management of infectious disease epi/pandemics and must become its centrepiece the disparity of sars-cov-2 testing coverage in different countries is much discussed but the reasons are sometimes rather opaque. there are many tests available (e.g., see https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/), so one bottleneck would appear to be a limitation in authorized testing facilities. scaling up testing in existing official centres requires not only acquisition of the appropriate instrumentation and reagents, but also of competent personnel disposing of the necessary expertise, which may constitute a bottleneck. however, it is abundantly clear that the instrumentation and expertise needed to carry out sars-cov-2 testing are widespread in academic research laboratories, as is the eagerness of many research groups to contribute to efforts to combat the pandemic. while issues of safety, quality control, logistics, data reporting and security and so on, need to be addressed, a failure in some countries to harness early in the crisis the expertise and enthusiasm of young researchers to fulfil a key need and, with it, the opportunity to acquire data that could have resulted in responses that saved lives, is regrettable. paradoxically, while there have been frantic efforts to open new hospital facilities to accommodate covid-19 patients, and to recruit the health professionals needed to operate them, there has been an indiscriminate closing of research institutes capable of carrying out diagnostic work, and thus of identifying infected and, importantly for frontline health professionals, non-infected individuals. • rapidly developing pandemics necessitate rapid responses. getting diagnostics and testing facilities up and running that are able to handle large numbers of samples are key to efforts to manage the disease. crisis preparedness demands not only formulation of strategies to enable rapid scale up official facilities, but also advance identification of relevant available resources outside of the health system, and strategies of how to promptly and effectively harness them. widespread testing for viral rna must be complemented by widespread testing, or at least the testing of sentinels of the population, for anti-viral antibodies. this is essential for relating the dynamics of infection to virus shedding (being infectious = infective for others) and to symptom development. and if (and this is a big if) the presence of antiviral antibodies reflects protective immunity, antibody testing is essential for herd immunity policy scenarios, to provide the data needed for monitoring and modelling immune population densities/granularity, and also for identification of those in the population who are in principle protected and hence able to return to normality and spearhead safe exit strategies from lockdown measures. • contingency planning requires identification of facilities or alliances able to promptly develop, produce in quantity and distribute easy-to-use antiviral antibody tests. patients having contracted covid-19 are grouped into three categories: in the china outbreak, 81% experienced mild, 14% severe and 5% critical infections (wu and mcgoogan, 2020) . for those requiring hospitalization, and those with the most acute symptoms requiring intensive care, two key variables in treatment capacity seem to be bed availability generally, and in intensive care units particularly (images of patients lying on the floors of some hospitals made this abundantly clear to the entire world), on one hand, and ventilator/intubation tube availability for patients needing intubation, on the other. there are enormous differences between countries in terms the availability of hospital beds/1000 population (e.g., japan 13.1, germany 8.0, france 6.0, switzerland 4.5, italy 3.2, uk/canada/denmark 2.5, india 0.5: https:// data.oecd.org/healtheqt/hospital-beds.htm), icu beds/1000 population, and numbers of available ventilators/intubation tubes (here, ventilators can be considered a proxy for any other clinical device that may be needed in a health crisis). an insufficiency of beds (and often health professionals) also resulted in 'non-critical' interventions 2 being postponed in some countries, and who, among critically ill patients suffering from different ailments, should be given an icu bed. there are different reasons for insufficient beds and clinical devices. but the fact remains: some countries manage better than others; some countries do not have enough beds for even small increases representing normal fluctuations in patient needs and anticipated seasonal variations, let alone exceptional demands made by epidemics. • it is essential to increase bed, especially icu bed, capacities in many countries, in order to reduce stress situations where patients cannot receive required treatment, and to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed in times of crisis, when there is a spike in patients requiring hospitalization. one new development triggered by the covid-19 pandemic was the creation of so-called 'fangcang shelter hospitals'-rapidly constructed, large scale, low cost, temporary hospitals, by converting existing public venues into healthcare facilities in wuhan to manage the rapidly increasing covid-19 patient numbers (chen et al., 2020) . instead of being delivered to regular hospitals, covid-19 patients were sent to shelter hospitals, where they were isolated and received basic medical care and frequent monitoring. patients whose mild disease state transitioned to severe were then transferred to regular hospitals where they received intensive care. although new emergency hospitals have been created in other countries, the purpose of these is generally to receive spillover from traditional hospitals, when these become overwhelmed by patient numbers. the purpose of fangcang shelter hospitals is, in contrast, to centralize clinical management of the epi/pandemic outside of the traditional hospital system. covid-19 patients are channelled to shelter hospitals, thereby minimizing viral ingress into hospitals and infection of health professionals, and helping to maintain staffing levels and normal functioning of outpatient and inpatient facilities. it is important to note that shelter hospitals constitute low-cost clinical settings-they require fewer health professionals and diagnostic-treatment infrastructure than normal hospitals, because all patients have the same clinical issue and most have only mild-to-moderate disease-and thereby relieve pressure on traditional hospitals with sophisticated infrastructure in limited capacity that constitute high-cost clinical settings (the creation of parallel low-cost clinical settings to relieve pressure on limited capacity high cost clinical settings is more broadly applicable over and above epi/pandemic response situations: see timmis and timmis, 2017, for an example in primary healthcare). • shelter hospitals should be incorporated into pandemic planning as the primary destination for pandemic patients, to allow traditional hospitals to continue functioning as normal as possible (or normally as long as possible). it may seem so trivially obvious to say, but obviously needs saying because it was not apparent from the health system responses of a number of countries: those most at risk of infection are those in contact with the infected, i.e., front-line doctors and nurses. and as they become infected, the numbers of available health professionals left to treat patients goes down as patient numbers go up. and, of course, infected health professionals become transmitters of infection among one another, and to uninfected patients, since in the hectic reality of emergencies, they may not always be able to practice adequate physical distancing. this obviously means that the greatest protection from infection must be accorded the front-line professionals. however, there were substantive differences between countries in terms of the availability and use of best practice protective clothing (personal protective equipment, ppe) in the early days of the covid-19 crisis; these differences were mainly in different degrees of deficiencies. the incomplete protection of front-line health professionals that occurred in a number of countries in the early days of the crisis, and that resulted in many infections and some deaths, is an unacceptable deficit in their health systems, particularly since the covid-19 outbreak was, from end of january 2020, a predictable disaster of international magnitude. then there are those one might designate accessory front-line professionals: those who transport infected individuals, like ambulance drivers, non-medical workers in hospitals, and so forth, carers ministering to people in care homes or in private homes, and others like some pharmacy and supermarket staff who, because of the nature of their work, come into physical contact with many people and cannot always achieve prescribed physical distancing. these are also particularly vulnerable to infection and to becoming infection transmitters. since the people they care for are, because of their ages and underlying morbidities, often themselves particularly vulnerable to severe outcomes, infected carers may, unknowingly and unwillingly, become 'angels of death'. accessory front-line professionals thus also require best ppe. there are wide regional and occupational differences in the availability and use of such clothing by these professionals. in addition to the issue of ppe, there is the issue of hygiene in the workplace-the surfaces that become contaminated and sources of infection. while traditionally these have been cleaned by auxiliary staff, such people are themselves at considerable risk of being infected in such environments and, as a result, there may be an insufficient number to continue carrying out this task, thereby raising infection risk. robots are in principle able to carry out various mechanical operations, so might take an increasing share in disinfection of high-risk, high touch areas (e.g., robot-controlled noncontact ultraviolet surface disinfection), and indeed other hospital tasks, such as delivering medications and food, diagnostic sample collection and transport, and so forth, (yang et al., 2020) , that may reduce both the work burden of overstretched staff and their infection risk. • the incorporation of robots into appropriate hospital operations should be energetically explored leadership in times of crisis is crucial to ongoing damage limitation and outcome severity, quite apart from its importance in planning crisis preparedness. although we need to look back when all this is over, and take stock of what went right, what was wrong, and what went wrong (i.e., to perform a gap analysis), at this point it seems that most countries were on their own, acting largely independently of others during the sars-cov-2 outbreak, at least in the early days. however, a pandemic is by definition an international crisis, requiring an international response (national-self-interest-policies may even be counterproductive in times of pandemics). extensive and effective cooperation, coordination and sharing of resources were not evident (e.g., see herszenhorn and wheaton, 2020) . leadership quality and effectiveness varies significantly among countries and among relevant international agencies. where leadership is suboptimal, dissemination of misinformation flourishes, and people are subjected to unnecessary levels of uncertainty and associated stress. • effective and decisive, biomedical science-guided, national and international leadership and coordination is absolutely crucial in pandemics, to prevent-hindermanage-minimize damage, acquire-integrate-learn from collective experience, make recommendations for crisis management, publish best practice procedures and standards. there is significant room for improvement. it is well known that experts have been warning of impending deadly epi/pandemics, including coronavirus outbreaks, for a long time (e.g., turinici and danchin, 2007; ge et al., 2013; menachery et al., 2015; https:// www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_ not_ready?language=en; editorial (2016) predicting pandemics, lancet doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736 (16)32578-8; https://apps.who.int/gpmb/assets/annual_ report/gpmb_annualreport_2019.pdf; https://www. weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/a-visual-history-ofpandemics/). now while the nature, evolution, timing and source of novel emerging infectious agents is uncertain, pandemics are always counteracted by the same timehonoured strategy: interruption of infection chains and anticipation of a surge in need for treatment of acute disease (here, we are nearly in the same situation as in the world confronted by spanish flu in 1918). we, therefore, only need one epidemic preparedness. despite this, the sars-cov-2 outbreak has clearly exposed how unprepared we were. there are multiple reasons for this, including. contingency planning is long term, lacks immediacy and 'wow factor' and so may not always enjoy high political priority, and thus is often neglected a primordial responsibility of government is to protect its citizens. this includes effective contingency planning for pandemics. however, due to the global nature of pandemics, coordination with neighbours (and factoring in potential flashpoints located more distantly, such as refugee camps in greece and elsewhere, which could become, if not cared for, sources of a second wave of infection when the first is over), and intergovernmental cooperation is essential. adequate contingency planning for deadly and devastating infectious disease outbreaks is not an optional policy, and the public have the right to insist on it, even if it becomes politically or economically expedient to neglect. for the public-the key stakeholders in this-transparency is essential and it must have access to information on the current state of preparedness, and future plans of government, and those of different political parties during election campaigns. trusted biomedical science organizations must support the public in this by providing expert scrutiny and assessment. governments must become accountable for the efforts they make to protect us. • governments must engage the public in issues of crisis preparedness and publish their contingency plans for scrutiny. • scientific organizations should have press/web groups that become trusted sources for evidencebased information for the public. catastrophe prediction/management expertise is not always at the heart of government, and thus able to inform and influence policy governments establish the presence of experts in key posts for topics they consider to be vital for informed policy and legislative activities. such experts exert an influence in policy development by providing input that is upto-the-minute in a changing world. while some governments contain epidemic/catastrophe experts, others do not. without such expertise, responses to catastrophes will generally be slow, ad hoc and inadequate, as has been the case in some countries in responding to the sars-cov-2 outbreak. for governments to fulfil their responsibilities to protect their citizens, it is essential that they have expert-informed contingency planning. learned societies and academies also have a major responsibility to seek to inform and influence government. the royal society, uk, and the american society for microbiology exemplify strategic influencing of national and international policy; other learned societies could be more proactive. • expert scientists must be embedded in the heart of government to enable development of evidencebased informed policies contingency planning involves inter alia the acquisition and maintenance of resources, such as beds, icu capacity, stocks of ventilators, protective clothing, and so forth, in the case of pandemics (e.g., kain and fowler, 2019) , that are by definition surplus to day-to-day requirements, and that will only be used if and when the catastrophe occurs. it also includes the development of generic platforms for rapid responses; in the case of pandemics, the development and testing of diagnostics, vaccine candidates, and effective treatments (see also below). this entails a significant recurring budgetary commitment. political and economic viewpoints that such costs are not cost-effective are fundamentally flawed because they generally only take into account the immediate cost elements, not the potential overall cost of the crisis and all its knock-on effects. these are being brutally revealed by the unfolding sars-cov-2 outbreak which, at this still early stage, is involving governmental support of national economies amounting collectively to trillions of dollars. and this is only the tip of the economic iceberg. bankruptcies, loss of employment, recession, loss of tax revenues, large scale deterioration of existing medical conditions in populations, potentially wide-scale deterioration of mental health, and so forth, and the economic costs of these, also need to be taken into account when reflecting on the cost of the contingency planning insurance policy. as an illustration of knock-on effects, global economic estimates of the benefits of vaccination have also shown that they extend well beyond those estimated from prevention of the specific disease in vaccinated individuals (bloom, 2015) . it is also worth comparing crisis preparedness costs with military expenditures. the latter are indeed budgetary commitments for preparedness for another type of crisis, namely a military conflict (excepting countries that use their military for internal affairs). and, as is the case in epi/pandemic preparedness, a considerable fraction of military resources is dedicated to surveillance operations. while accepting that military expenditures are also justified in terms of deterrence of hostile actions, and a multitude of non-combat roles armed forces may undertake, it is not self-evident that future military conflicts may result in losses of life and economic damage as high as the current covid-19 pandemic. in any case, in terms of protecting citizens, it should be abundantly clear that effective contingency preparedness for pandemics, and other crises, 3 should be equated with military preparedness, and budgeted accordingly. • the principle of citizen protection demands that governments budget for adequate crisis preparedness in the same way that they budget for military preparedness. it is simply one of several essential 'insurance premiums' to which the state must commit. from earlier infectious disease outbreaks, we can assume that the most probable source of a new pandemic will be an animal virus, probably a coronavirus, whose natural host is a wild animal, possibly a bat (e.g., see brüssow, 2012) , that mutates and, as a result, becomes infectious for humans, or for an intermediate host, from which it subsequently jumps to humans. close contacts between humans and the animal host provide the opportunities for transmission. reducing such close contacts will reduce the probability of spillover and thus of an outbreak. close contacts between wild animals and humans occur in wet markets in asia, small-scale mixed farming activities with ducks and pigs, and so forth, or when humans encroach into wildlife habitats, e.g., through ecotourism, or destroy wildlife habitats for economic activities, forcing wildlife to enter human habitats (e.g., the destruction of rainforest for palm oil cultivation appears to have catalyzed a nipah virus outbreak; brüssow, 2012) . in any case, although pathogen:host interactions underlying disease are generally well studied, current knowledge about the ecology of infectious agentswhere pathogens are and what they are doing prior to infection of humans, especially those having alternative hosts, and how they are circulating and evolving new pathogenic and host-range potentialis inadequate. in order to transit from response mode to pro-active ecological measures to prevent outbreaks from occurring, there needs to be a major research effort to obtain a fundamental understanding of pathogen ecology (see e.g. timmis, 2001) . • greater efforts are needed to reduce human:wildlife contacts and habitat overlaps, in order to decrease the probability of viral pandemics • effective outbreak prevention measures require acquisition of fundamental knowledge about pathogen ecology contingency planning and the public memory. it is human nature that, once this crisis is over, people, except those who lost loved ones, employment, and so forth, will generally want to forget it as quickly as possible and get back to normal. the number of individuals who try to keep it in the forefront of memory, in order to institute new measures that adequately protect us from the next crisis, and there will undoubtedly be new crises (see above), will be few and far between. some, not all, leading politicians who now (often for the first time) insist that their responses are being guided by the best scientific evidence and advice, as though it were the most natural thing in the world, will quietly shed themselves of their scientific credentials and revert to business as usual, even when unpleasant issues like global warming, the antibiotic resistance crisis, our vulnerability to terrorist and cyber-attacks, 4 again come to the fore. in order that our collective memory retains the crucial need for crisis preparedness, it is essential that each year governments publish updated and independently audited contingency plans. literacy. and the public-the central stakeholders in, and funders of, government policy/actions-must be able to understand the issues and personally evaluate the sometimes vague policy statements they hear. to do this, society must become knowledgeable about/literate in such things. in the case of infectious disease crises, such as the one currently ravaging humanity, and the contingency plans necessary for these, literacy in relevant microbiology topics is, as we have previously argued, essential (timmis et al., 2019) . interrupting the transmission chain in a pandemic may require lock-down, which imposes major personal sacrifices on the public, including confinement: loss of freedom of movement/social activities/family visits; closure of workplaces/loss of employment and income, resulting in economic hardship/increases in debt; closure of schools/ places of worship/hospitality venues/fitness studios/clubs of all sorts; restrictions on shopping; and elevated stress/ worsening of psychiatric conditions. it is, therefore, crucial that such measures are accepted and supported by the public. for this, people must be engaged and presented with coherent lock-down plans that are convincingly justified, in order to solicit compliance, solidarity and sharing of responsibilities. federal structures, like those in the usa, germany and switzerland may lead to uncoordinated actions in different parts of the country that are unsettling and unconvincing, because the public perceives them as arbitrary. such countries require coherent national plans that are consistent for the entire country. of course, all people in lock-down want an exit as soon as possible, and it is essential for governments to develop and communicate as soon as possible their exit strategy, and the determining parameters and assumptions upon which it is based. interestingly, some members of the public favour staggered exit plans, which implies a willingness to accept an infection risk. it will, therefore, be important for the government to have a public discussion on different risk scenarios, to obtain, present and discuss human/economic cost:benefit estimates (e.g., human lives against cost in loss of income /economic prosperity underlying the lock-down versus herd immunity approach-how much unemployment averts how many deaths or years of productive life when considering the age structure of death). and this discussion needs to take place in the context of the probabilities of loss of life through other adverse causes, such as annual influenza epidemics. family-friend contacts with terminally ill patients. one of the most shocking aspects of the covid-19 pandemic is the daily reporting of relatives of terminally ill patients who are unable to be with their loved ones at the end, and to pay last respects before burial. while this may be understandable in the context of patient isolation, social distancing, and the unbelievable hectic in overwhelmed icus, serious effort should be made to find a solution, perhaps moving terminally ill patients to an environment that permits both end-of-life patient care and limited safe contact with loved ones. • governments must publish annual audited overviews of the national state of crisis preparedness, with critical analyses of its strengths and weaknesses and plans to address the weaknesses • governments and education ministries must raise public awareness of crisis potential and promote understanding of key elements of crisis management, inter alia through investing in school curricula changes and public information campaigns that increase literacy in topics such as microbiology and public health • governments should involve civil society in discussing restrictive measures because this increases compliance and the solidarity to shoulder the consequences. achievement of optimal preparedness for, and operational responses to, a pandemic demands two things: international benchmarking and transparency/accountability in health systems (and of those who regulate and finance them). this includes chains of command and shared administrative responsibilities, procurement services, reliance on external suppliers of essential materials, and so forth. the disparities in responses we have listed above, that demonstrate significant differences between countries in the ability to respond to pandemics, are not justifiable in terms of operational efficiency, protection of frontline professionals, clinical outcome, and so forth, and cannot be allowed to persist, to be manifested again in future crises. health systems worldwide largely operate within narrow national perspectives, with little interest in better systems elsewhere. we urgently need objective and transparent benchmarking, and automatic mandating of adoption of the best practices in the world, where feasible. transparency and convincing justification for failure to adopt the benchmark must become the norm. of course, different health systems operate in different frameworks-payers, insurance, authorization and recommendation agencies, and so forth-but the tail cannot be allowed to wag the dog. existing frameworks can no longer be accepted as default excuses not to improve. they must be adapted to allow adoption of the benchmarks, where possible, not the other way round. in the final analysis, there are only two elements relevant: the person in the icu, who pays tax/insurance, and hence for the health system, and the government, which is responsible for health system functioning/evolution and protection of its citizens. both of their goals are in principle aligned, so there should be no controversy: provision of the best achievable health system that is adequately prepared for catastrophic pandemics. • governments and health systems must subject national health systems, and national health system crisis preparedness, to international benchmark scrutiny, and transparently strive for attainment of best international standards. it is the responsibility of government to protect its citizens and the role of industry to innovate and create commercial products and services. these two goals are not always aligned for current clinical exigences. but to provide a vital health system, government and industry must align and form alliances that create synergies. there are, of course, many successful examples of such beneficial alliances. however, there is sometimes an unrealistic perception of the role of industry, particularly by some governments when confronted with a crisis for which they are not prepared, as articulated in the generic cry: why do not we have a vaccine for this, why do not we have a drug for that? for example, regulatory and payment hurdles incentivize industry to develop cancer drugs rather than antimicrobials, so it is irrational and unwarranted to complain about the poor state of pipelines for new antivirals in the time of covid-19, of antimicrobials in the time of the antimicrobial resistance crisis. if industry is to realign its research priorities towards current clinical priorities, it needs incentives to do so, e.g., through adequately funded creative governmentindustry-academia-clinical-regulatory strategic alliances. we have previously proposed a mechanism to create novel pipelines for accelerated discovery of new drugs and diagnostics (timmis et al., 2014 ; and, simultaneously, to promote long-term revival of struggling economies, interestingly in response to a financial crisis-that of 2008-which the sars-cov-2 pandemic will again unleash with considerable severity). this proposal calls for the use of infrastructure budgets (not overstretched research-education-health budgets) to be targeted to the creation of new strategic national/ regional alliances between (i) cell biology and microbial diversity research groups, to discover and develop new diagnostics, drug targets and assays, and new drug leads from new microbes, (ii) biochemical engineers, chemists and pharma, to produce, evaluate and develop drug candidates, (iii) pharma, clinical research and regulatory agencies to assess clinical efficacy and safety of, and develop new drug candidates. in the context of the sars-cov-2 pandemic, an alliance between virology, cell biology, microbial diversity, and synthetic microbiology groups in upstream discovery would accelerate new antiviral discovery and populate antiviral drug pipelines, but also pipelines of new antimicrobials urgently needed for the treatment of bacterial superinfections responsible for some of the covid-19 mortalities. and: while advanced age, underlying co-morbidities and infection dose are identified as predisposing factors for development of severe covid-19 disease, deaths among young healthy individuals also occur for reasons currently unknown. once predisposing factors for this group have been elucidated, diagnostics to identify young people at risk, especially those most exposed to sars-cov-2, will be needed in order to reduce their exposure. vaccines, despite their proven value in protecting against disease and their much-heralded pivotal importance for lockdown exit and herd immunity, are the cinderellas of clinical practice and, in normal times, not only attract little interest from governments but also are controversial, due to negative publicity from vociferous anti-vaccine groups propagating unfounded claims. the development and use of a number of current vaccines/vaccine candidates are orchestrated and funded, not by industry and public health systems, but by philanthropic organizations, like the gates foundation, working with agencies like cepi (coalition for epidemic preparedness innovations) and gavi (global alliance for vaccines and immunizations). indeed, the gates foundation is also playing a leading role in the search for, and development of, a vaccine against covid-19 (https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ media-center/press-releases/2020/02/bill-and-melinda-gates-foundation-dedicates-additional-funding-to-the-novel-coronavirus-response). however, it is the duty of national governments and international organizations, as part of their pandemic preparedness, to finance vaccine development platforms that are able to rapidly create new vaccines in response to an outbreak. once a new vaccine candidate is shown to be safe and protective, its rapid large-scale production and distribution requires the infrastructure of large pharmaceutical companies. as epidemics cannot be planned, industrial managers cannot be expected to promote projects without a market. governments must therefore intervene to maintain the interest and technical capacity of industry in developing vaccines and antibiotics (a smouldering fire) by creating a market in form of governmental orders. assessments of value-for-money of these strategic alliances must be made in the context of the global costs of pandemics like that of sars-cov-2. • pandemic preparedness requires rapid creation, production and distribution of effective materials for diagnosis, prophylaxis and therapy. this necessitates significant long-term investment in research and development involving unconventional alliances of disparate academic science and medical research groups, industry, philanthropic foundations, vaccine enabling coalitions, and crisis preparedness taskforces. there is great diversity in stress resilience (e.g., the ability to deal with peaks of illness) of different health systems, with some being at least regionally overwhelmed during the winter influenza season. the less resilient systems will generally be the first to become overwhelmed in a health crisis. while there are numerous parameters involved in health system resilience, and experts know most of the pinch points and solutions that can deal with these (but also what is uncertain and what needs to be understood before effective 'solutions' can be formulated), three elements worth consideration in efforts to increase health system resilience are discussed here. healthcare systems are by and large extremely large, complex, heavily bureaucratic and fragmented. the often system-wide, multi-level consultations, decisions and responses needed in times of emergencies are challenging and often slow, usually slower than crisis development, which means that healthcare systems follow and react to events, rather than managing them. crises are in some ways analogous to wars, and bureaucracies are not designed to manage wars, which is the job of the military. in crises, we need crisis strategy-tactics specialists, a taskforce with short, well defined and effective chains of command, tasked with overriding normal procedures and taking charge of supply chains and requisitioning of assets, (re)deployment of personnel, organization and prioritization of allocation of infrastructure, managing logistics, and so forth. these could be specially trained taskforces of existing staff within healthcare systems, external taskforces or combinations of both. of course, for taskforces to operate optimally, they, together with the best available scientific minds, must also plan in advance the required resources, supply chains, personnel, strategic options, and so forth. they must also organize regular 'infection games'/public health manoeurvres (https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_ next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready?language=en) = crisis 'fire drills', to train nationally and transnationally, refresh skills and explore and anticipate unexpected events to ensure preparedness, so that appropriate responses can be rolled out rapidly anywhere, independently of national borders. 5 another, mandatory, task for the taskforce would be to conduct regular 'stress tests' of healthcare system resilience, as have been instituted for banks to ensure that they have adequate resources (= resilience) to withstand crises. such stress tests should be designed by health experts, epidemiologists-modellers, procurement agencies, representatives of the diagnostics-vaccine-drug industry, and so forth, and the design and implementation of the stress tests overseen by the taskforce. • national crisis task forces consisting of dedicated strategy-tactics specialists need to be established to plan crisis preparedness, make recommendations to improve health system resilience, and carry out regular crisis "fire drills" and stress tests. an important aspect of the sars-cov-2 outbreak is that, in most countries, it has become more difficult to obtain consultations with primary healthcare clinics/physicians, because of social distancing practices, illness or involvement in crisis management (e.g., see keesara et al., 2020) . as time goes on, the inability to access many primary healthcare services leads to progressive worsening of existing and new conditions in some individuals. access to primary healthcare, which in some countries was already unsatisfactory before covid-19, is becoming a new crisis. this has resulted in the 'flight to the web' for information (sometimes obtaining disinformation in the process): the web is becoming a substitute for clinical consultations, in terms of obtaining information relating to symptoms experienced. this will ultimately have a significant impact on how the public views the computer as a facilitator-mediator of primary healthcare. while classical telemedicine-the ad hoc consultation of a remote, unknown physician who can advise on the symptoms presented-may be helpful in times of inadequate access to regular primary healthcare facilities, it cannot replace clinical advice informed by patient case histories and personal knowledge of the patient. reduced access to primary healthcare below a certain threshold constitutes itself a significant health hazard and is counter to a government's duty to protect its citizens. what to do to increase resilience of primary health care and increase access? one important contribution will be the 'digital healthcare revolution' (keesara et al., 2020) , i.e., some traditional one-on-one meetings between patient and doctor being replaced by web-based consultations. but also imagine teleconsultations based on (i) complete personal case histories, combined with (ii) up-to-date population epidemiological information, combined with (iii) individual patient best practice recommendations based on precision medicine analyses/predictions: welcome to the national clinical informatics centre (ncic; timmis and timmis, 2017) , informing in real time a virtual doctor, a clinically-programed, ai-evolving server. this doctor, interfacing with both the patient and ncic, diagnoses according to detailed case history and patient symptom input via computer (and aided, where necessary, by diagnostic information obtained through in-home patient self-diagnosis with apparatus/diagnostic materials promptly delivered by a medical logistics service), and makes treatment recommendations (timmis, 2020) . in some countries/regions, access to primary healthcare already involves significant waiting periods. the additional restrictions on access to primary healthcare resulting from the sars-cov-2 outbreak are resulting in further suffering and frustration that will surely make the prospect of a consultation with a virtual doctor providing personalized medicine, who is instantly available 24/7, an increasingly attractive future possibility. of course, many health issues cannot be handled remotely via the web (though the proportion will increase steadily with the development of informatic infrastructure and easy-to-use home diagnostics), and will result in referral to a clinician. but, web-based consultations can significantly reduce numbers of patients requiring clinician consultations and the associated stress on the health system. • it is essential that health systems urgently develop centralized, secure informatic infrastructure needed to underpin web-based machine learning-facilitated precision medicine, and evolve web-based consultations, available on demand 24/7, as an integral mainstream component of primary healthcare services. the current sars-cov-2 outbreak has brutally exposed the current vulnerability of society to pandemics, even those that have been long predicted and anticipated (ge et al., 2013; menachery et al., 2015) . most healthcare systems have not evolved for resilience in times of catastrophe, nor for effective rapid responses to pandemics. a key principle steering evolution has been value-for-money within a fixed budget; contingency planning within this framework (outlays for materials that may never be used) may be considered to be a nuisance that diminishes what can otherwise be done with limited funds, and so to a greater or lesser extent may be postponed. for this reason, it is crucial that budgets for contingency planning are separate from health system budgets. equally important, it has emphasized the fact that some healthcare systems have for a long time been on the edge of the cliff, just waiting for an event to push them over. their adaptation to changing needs has often been through a 'sticking plaster' response. evolution has been ad hoc, via responses to new developments and challenges, and often led to fragmentation rather than coherence. the lessons to be learned are thus not only to take scientifically-founded pandemic predictions seriously into account in policy elaboration, but also to streamline and institute changes in healthcare systems that impose an evolutionary trajectory that increases coherence, efficiency and preparedness, and the necessary mechanisms to maintain these as new exigencies arise (e.g., see timmis and timmis, 2017) . and, especially because this crisis has revealed enormous disparities in responsiveness, effectiveness and the quality of responses in different countries, both preparedness for pandemics and the general improvement of healthcare mandate international benchmarking for contingency planning and the evolution of healthcare systems. comparisons/benchmarking within countries-within single systems-is no longer acceptable. many healthcare systems need substantive improvements through strategic investments, in most cases targeted to system changes, not just extra funding of existing services. and above all, they need crisis taskforces embedded in them that can prepare for, and take charge in times of, impending catastrophes. another lesson learned is that the sars-cov-2 outbreak has revealed new synergy potentials, such as the manufacture of ventilators by engineering companies not normally active in the manufacture of medical devices. it is not unreasonable to assume that new innovations can and will emerge from new interactions between creative engineers and clinicians. for example, best practice for breathing difficulty and poor blood oxygenation is intubation and ventilation. the paucity of ventilators is a 'critical control point' for best treatment practice in some hospitals, which has been discussed above. anecdotal evidence suggests that, of those individuals who die, despite best treatment practice involving intubation, the cause of death is often due to superinfection by antibiotic resistant bacteria (vincent et al., 2020) . the cause of this may indeed be intubation, causing perturbation of normal lung physiology and creating susceptibility to superinfection. there are, however, less invasive means of increasing blood oxygen levels. perhaps engineers, together with clinicians, will devise new or improved non-invasive approaches to blood oxygenation. and once creative engineers from the non-medical field start to expertly scrutinize current medical devices, perhaps we will see new approaches and new designs that significantly advance medical practice. but perhaps the most important lesson learned is about our frontline health professionals ministering to covid-19 patients, especially those with severe disease. these clinicians and nurses who willingly and selflessly work long, sometimes multiple shifts to the point of utter exhaustion, often not able to see their families for long periods because of the danger of infecting them, always under unbelievable stress working in what are essentially war zones with the accompanying horrors (e.g. see http:// www.sixthtone.com/news/1005474/i-spent-seven-weeksin-a-wuhan-icu.-heres-what-i-learned?utm_source=sfmc& utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2716680_agenda_ weekly-17april2020&utm_term=&emailtype=newsletter), sometimes without adequate protective clothing and always in danger of contracting covid-19, sometimes becoming infected, and sometimes paying the ultimate price. these are the heroes of the pandemic, the faces of resilience of covid-19 healthcare, exceptional citizens demonstrating exceptional fortitude, personal sacrifice and professional dedication: they are our role models of the 21st century. real estimates of mortality following covid-19 infection valuing vaccines: deficiencies and remedies on viruses, bats and men: a natural history of food-borne viral infections the novel coronavirus-a snapshot of current knowledge fangcang shelter hospitals: a novel concept for responding to public health emergencies isolation and characterisation of a bat sars-like coronavirus that uses the ace2 receptor offline: covid-19 and the nhs: "a national scandal preparing intensive care for the next pandemic influenza health security capacities in the context of covid-19 outbreak: an analysis of international health regulations annual report data from 182 countries covid-19 and health care's digital revolution a sars-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence estimating case fatality rates of covid-19 the diy digital medical centre biological land mines: bioterrorism underscores major knowledge deficits in the ecology of infectious agents the home clinic or all in a day's work of dr the urgent need for microbiology literacy in society pipelines for new chemicals: a strategy to create new value chains and stimulate innovation-based economic revival in southern european countries the sars case study. an alarm clock prevalence and outcomes of infection among patients in intensive care units in 2017 characteristics of and important lessons from the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) outbreak in china combatting covid-19-the role of robotics in managing public health and infectious diseases key: cord-332583-5enha3g9 authors: bodine, erin n.; panoff, robert m.; voit, eberhard o.; weisstein, anton e. title: agent-based modeling and simulation in mathematics and biology education date: 2020-07-28 journal: bull math biol doi: 10.1007/s11538-020-00778-z sha: doc_id: 332583 cord_uid: 5enha3g9 with advances in computing, agent-based models (abms) have become a feasible and appealing tool to study biological systems. abms are seeing increased incorporation into both the biology and mathematics classrooms as powerful modeling tools to study processes involving substantial amounts of stochasticity, nonlinear interactions, and/or heterogeneous spatial structures. here we present a brief synopsis of the agent-based modeling approach with an emphasis on its use to simulate biological systems, and provide a discussion of its role and limitations in both the biology and mathematics classrooms. agent-based models (abms) are computational structures in which system-level (macro) behavior is generated by the (micro) behavior of individual agents, which may be persons, cells, molecules or any other discrete quantities. typical abms contain three elements: agents, an environment, and rules governing each agent's behavior and its local interactions with other agents and with the environment. decades of advancement in computer power has made agent-based modeling a feasible and appealing tool to study a variety of complex and dynamic systems, especially within the life sciences. as the use of abms in research has grown, so too has the inclusion of abms in life science and mathematical modeling courses as a means of exploring and predicting how individual-level behavior and interactions among individuals lead to system-level observable patterns. abms are now one of the many types of models students studying the life sciences or applied mathematics should encounter in their undergraduate education. prior to the introduction of abms into biological and applied mathematics curricula, the clear model format of choice was the ordinary differential equation (ode), or maybe a pair of them; occasionally, discrete difference equations and/or matrix equations would also be introduced. exponential growth and decay were ready examples, paving the way for extensions of the exponential growth process toward a carrying capacity in the form of the logistic growth process (voit 2020) . this logistic process was easily generalized to two populations, which were at first independent, but then allowed to interact. depending on these interactions, the result was a pair of two populations competing for the same resource or a simple predator-prey model in the format of a two-variable lotka-volterra system. although odes and any other types of "diff-e-qs" are a priori dreaded by almost all but mathematicians and physicists, the concept of an ode, if adequately explained, becomes quite intuitive. for instance, one may ease a novice into the world of odes by considering changes in the water level w of a lake over time (ayalew 2019) . whereas these dynamics are difficult to formulate as an explicit function w (t), newcomers readily understand that changes in the water level depend on influxes from tributaries, rain, and other sources on the supply side, and on effluxes, evaporation and water utilization on the side of reducing the amount of water. just putting these components into an equation leads directly to a differential equation of the system (weisstein 2011 ). on the left side, one finds the change over time as dw /dt, and this change is driven, on the right-hand side, by a sum of augmenting and diminishing processes. there is hardly a limit to what can be achieved with odes in biology, with the very important exception of processes that have genuine spatial features. and while it is not difficult to ease a biology undergraduate into ordinary differential equations, the same is not necessarily true for partial differential equations (pdes). however, spatial phenomena in biology seldom occur in homogeneous conditions. as examples, consider the formation of tumors with angiogenesis and necrosis; the local patterns of cell-to-cell signaling that governs the embryonic development; the spread of the red fire ant (solenopsis invicta) from mobile, al, its alleged port of entry into the usa, all along the gulf and east coasts; or the population size and dynamics of the santa cruz island fox (urocyon littoralis santacruzae) being driven by territory size which in turn depends on local vegetation (scott 2019) . until relatively recently, the conundrum of space was often dealt with in the final chapter of mathematical modeling in biology. a sea change came with the development of abms, which are natural formats for both stochasticity and spatial phenomena. by their nature, these models are computationally expensive, which initially prevented their use in most classrooms. however, this situation has obviously changed. as the bio2010 report (2003) stated: "computer use is a fact of life of all modern life scientists. exposure during the early years of their undergraduate careers will help life science students use current computer methods and learn how to exploit emerging computer technologies as they arise." classroom use of abms has thus become not just logistically feasible, but also very appealing for demonstrating spatial dynamics in a wide range of biological systems (kottonau 2011; triulzi & pyka 2011; shiflet 2013; pinder 2013) . supporting this appeal is a repertoire of software tools, such as simbio and netlogo (see sect. 3), that contain predefined examples and require minimal computer coding skills for model analysis. here, we present a brief synopsis and history of this modeling approach with emphasis on life science applications (sect. 2), describe some of the software tools most frequently used in the classroom (sect. 3), and then focus on some of its roles and limitations in the classroom (sect. 4). the origins of agent-based modeling. the true origins of any method or procedure are seldom identifiable in an unambiguous manner. in the case of agent-based modeling, one could think of craig reynolds' 1987 seminal article on the formation of bird flocks (with the agents denoted as boids, short for "bird-oid object"), which he was able to represent with just three rules of behavior: (1) avoid collisions with nearby birds; (2) attempt to match the velocity of nearby birds; and (3) attempt to stay close to nearby birds in the flock (reynolds 1987; gooding 2019) . the result of simulations with this simple abm was very realistic-looking flocking behavior. particularly intriguing in this study was the fact that there was no leader or a global organizing principle. instead, the virtual birds were truly individual agents that self-organized locally, thereby generating a globally coherent flight pattern. while reynolds' work was a milestone, key concepts leading to modern abms can be found much earlier. one notable contributor of ideas was nobel laureate enrico fermi, who used mechanical addition machines to generate probabilities for stochastic models with which he solved otherwise unwieldy problems (gooding 2019) . this procedure was an early form of the method of a monte carlo simulation, which was later independently developed and published by stanislav ulam, like fermi a member of the manhattan project (metropolis & ulam 1949; metropolis 1987) . another very important contribution to the budding development of abms was the turing machine (turing 1936) , which is a mathematical model of computation that uses a set of rules to manipulate symbols in discrete cells on an infinite tape. much closer to abms were ideas of ulam, who was fascinated by the "automatic" emergence of patterns in two-dimensional games with very simple rules (ulam 1950; metropolis 1987) . together with the new concept of game theory (von neumann & morgenstern 1944) , all these ideas were developed into the concept of cellular automata, which are direct predecessors of abms (ulam 1950; ulametal 1947; von neumann & morgenstern 1944) . a very appealing implementation of a cellular automaton was john conway's famous game of life (gardner 1970) . the social sciences adopted computational methods in the 1960s for microanalytic simulations or, simply, micro-simulations (gilbert & troitzsch 2005; gooding 2019 ). in contrast to today's abms, which use simple rules to recreate observed or unknown patterns, the agents in the original microsimulations acted according to empirical data (bae 2016). the advantage of this strategy is that model analysis can reveal systemic behaviors under different realistic scenarios (gooding 2019) . a seminal paper in this context described generic segregation processes (schelling 1971) . other agent-based modeling work in sociology and economics was gleaned from the biological abm work of smith (1982) , who formulated darwin's ideas of evolution as a computer simulation. this idea inspired nelson & winter to apply similar concepts and implementations to market studies, where firms were modeled like animals that followed specific routines. in particular, the firms were in competition, and the market weeded out bad routines while rewarding the fittest. nelson & winter's influential book an evolutionary theory of economic change (nelson & winter 1982) strongly proposed the use of computer simulations, which today would fall within the scope of agentbased modeling. their ideas led to a school of thought called evolutionary economics (hanappi 2017 ). an early and particularly influential paper in this context tried to shed light on the stock market (palmer 1994) . initially, abms of artificial life simulated simple homogeneous agents that acted like huge colonies of ants that could just move and eat in the pursuit of food. somewhat more sophisticated, economic simulations used as the main agent homo economicus, a consistently rational human pursuing the optimization of some economic goal or utility with exclusive self-interest (persky 1995) . based on these humble beginnings, sophistication in computing soon permitted heterogeneous agents and much more complicated landscapes than before. the successes in economics were so tantalizing that simulation studies eventually reached the most prestigious journals of economics and the social sciences geanakoplos 2012; hanappi 2017) . modern abms in economics are capable of capturing much of the complexity of macroeconomic systems (e.g., caiani (2016) ). following directly the principles of cellular automata, kauffman studied large grids with elements that changed features in a binary fashion (kauffman 1993) . for instance, a white agent could turn black, and this shift occurred according to boolean rules that usually involved some or all neighboring grid points. kauffman was able to demonstrate the emergence of complex patterns, such as oscillations and percolation. starting in the 1980, wolfram performed systematic studies of cellular automata, which led to his influential 2002 book a new kind of science (wolfram 2002 ) that assigns cellular automata a wide range of applications in a variety of fields. biological applications of agent-based modeling. abms have been constructed to study a wide range of biological phenomenon. numerous reviews and research efforts using abms have focused on specific biomedical systems. issues of gene expression were modeled by thomas (2019) . morphogenetic and developmental processes were discussed in grant (2006) , robertson (2007) , , tang (2011), and glen (2019) . models of tissue mechanics and microvasculature are captured in and van liedekerke (2015) . inflammation, wound healing and immune responses were addressed in , ), chavali (2008 , and castiglione & celada (2015) . other authors (wang 2015; segovia 2004; cisse 2013 ) used abms to model cancer growth, tuberculosis, and schistosomiasis, respectively. lardon and colleagues (lardon 2011) used abms to analyze biofilm dynamics. butler and colleagues described the use of abms in pharmacology (butler 2015) . abms studying multicellular systems provide a unique capability to examine interactions and feedback loops across the different hierarchies of the system (hellweger 2016) . reviews of abms in the context of ecology, environmental management, and land use include (bousquet 2004; matthews 2007; grimm & railsback 2005; caplat 2008 ; deangelis & diaz 2019). in some applications, interventions or treatments were addressed and therefore required the adaptation of agents to changing scenarios (berry 2002) . abms have also been used to simulate epidemics with analyses examining the impact of implemented or potential intervention measures (e.g., quarantining/physical distancing, mask wearing, and vaccination) (mniszewski 2013; perez & dragicevic 2009; tracy 2018) . visual representations of epidemiological abms have even been used by news outlets during the covid-19 pandemic to help explain to the public how various intervention methods change the shape of an epidemic (i.e., "flatten the curve) or the basic reproduction number (r 0 ) of an epidemic; see, for example, fox (2020) and stevens (2020). rationale & pitfalls of abms. the two most frequent goals of an abm analysis are (1) the elucidation and explanation of emergent behaviors of a complex system and (2) the inference of rules that govern the actions of the agents and lead to these emerging system behaviors. this type of inference is based on large numbers of simulations, i.e., replicate experiments with the abm using the same assumptions and parameters, and different experiments over which assumptions or parameter values are systematically changed. simulations of abms essentially always yield different outcomes, because movements, actions and interactions of agents with each other or with the environment are stochastic events. the inference of rules from simulation results is an abductive process (voit 2019) that is challenging, because one can easily demonstrate that different rule sets may lead to the emergence of the same systemic behaviors, and because even numerous simulations seldom cover the entire repertoire of a system's possible responses. in fact, hanappi (2017) warned: "assumptions on microagents that play the role of axioms from which the aggregate patterns are derived need not-and indeed never should-be the end of abm research." arguably the greatest appeal of abms, and at the same time a treacherous pitfall, is their enormous flexibility, which is attributatble to the fact that any number of rules can be imposed on the agents, and that the environment may be very simple but can also be exceedingly complicated. for instance, the environment may exhibit gradients or even different individually programmable patches (barth 2012; gooding 2019) including importing geographic information systems (gis) data to define the characteristics of each patch (see scott (2019) for an example with a detailed explanation of how gis data are incorporated into an abm). in particular, the repeated addition of new elements to a model can quickly increase the complexity of the model, thereby possibly distracting from the core drivers of the system's behavior, obscuring the importance of each of the rules the agents must follow, and generally making interpretations of results more difficult. related to this option of adding elements is the critique that abms can be 'tuned' by researchers to create outcomes that support the researcher's narrative (gooding 2019) . to counteract increases in complexity, some authors have begun to develop methods of model reduction that retain the core features of a model, but eliminate unnecessary details (zou 2012). another critique of abms is that simulations are not readily reproducible, because the rules can be complicated and stochasticity rarely repeats the same model trajectories. a strategy to increase the reproducibility of abms was the establishment of protocols for the standardized design and analysis of abms (lorek & sonnenschein 1999; grimm 2006 grimm , 2010 heard 2015) . (2017). in a slight extension of abms, lattilä (2010) and cisse (2013) described hybrid simulations involving abms and dynamic systems, and heard (2015) discussed statistical methods of abm analysis. these introductory tutorials and reviews, however, are typically not designed for undergraduates with limited mathematical or computational modeling experience. the scientific community has also worked hard on facilitating the use of abms by offering software like netlogo, swarm, repast, and mason. summaries and evaluations of some of the currently pertinent software are available in berryman (2008) and abar (2017) , and netlogo is described more fully in sect. 3. a variety of software tools can be used to construct, simulate, and analyze abms. when abms are taught or used in biology or mathematics courses, software should be chosen to align with pedagogical objectives. note that the pedagogy of abms in life science and mathematical modeling courses is discussed in more detail in sect. 4. in this section, we highlight some of the most used software packages in an educational setting. ecobeaker & simbio. ecobeaker was developed by eli meir and first released in 1996 as software that ran simulated experiments designed to explore ecological principles. in 1998, simbio (meir 1998 ) was founded (then called beakerware) for the release of the second version of ecobeaker and has since grown to include simulated experiments in evolution, cell biology, genetics, and neurobiology. many of the simulated experiments in the simbio virtual labs software are agent-based simulations. in a simbio virtual lab, the user interacts with a graphical interface portraying the agents (individuals in the experiment) and sometimes their environment, which can be manipulated in various ways for different experimental designs. the graphical interface also contains relevant graphs which are updated as the simulated experiment runs. ecobeaker and simbio virtual labs are examples of software where the focus is on experimental design and the use of simulation to understand biological concepts. the user never interfaces with the code and does not need to understand the underlying algorithms which produce the simulation. simbio virtual labs are used in many biology classrooms across the united states. the software is priced per student (currently $6/lab/student or $49/student for unlimited labs). netlogo. the agent-based modeling environment netlogo (wilensky 1999) was developed by uri wilensky and first released in 1999. netlogo is free and continues to be improved and updated (the software is currently on version 6). additionally, a simplified version of netlogo can be run through a web browser at http://netlogoweb. org/. netlogo is a programming platform allowing the implementation of any abm a user might design. as such, its user interface includes a tab where abm code is written in the netlogo programming language, and a tab for the user to view a visualization of the abm and user specified outputs as the abm is simulated. textbooks by railsback & grimm (2012) and wilensky & rand (2015) provide introductions to the netlogo prgramming languages as well as providing a thorough overview of the algorithmic structures of abms. since its initial development, netlogo has built up an extensive model library of abms. additionally, over the years, faculty at various institutions have developed abm modules through netlogo that allow students to explore a variety of biological phenomenon. for example, the virtual biology lab (jones 2016) has created 20 different virtual laboratory modules using netlogo through a web browser for exploring topics in ecology, evolution, and cell biology. the virtual biology labs are similar in scope to the ecobeaker and simbio labs. another example is infections on networks (iontw) which provides an abm framework and teaching modules for examining aspects of disease dynamics on various network structures (just 2015a, b, c) . one of the responses to the bio2010 report (2003) has been a push to create biocalculus courses or to insert more biological application examples and projects within traditional calculus courses. indeed, studies have shown that including applications from the life sciences in classic math courses like calculus leads to students gaining equivalent or better conceptual knowledge than from similar courses without life science applications (comar 2008; . however, many mathematics and biology educators have pointed out that the subset of mathematics applicable to biology extends well beyond calculus, and undergraduates (especially those majoring in biology) should be exposed to a variety of mathematical models and methods of analysis across biology and mathematics courses (bressoud 2004; gross 2004; robeva & laubenbacher 2009 ). the only prerequisites for analyzing the simulations of an abm are a basic understanding of the underlying biology and, in some instances, knowledge of how to perform basic statistical calculations or generate graphical representations of results. many pre-built abms in simbio virtual labs and netlogo generate relevant graphs and/or produce spreadsheets or text files of the relevant data. thus, a student can utilize abms in life science courses without having to learn how to implement (by writing code) an abm. the prerequisites for learning how to implement abms are not as extensive as for other forms of mathematical models. the most essential prerequisite is some exposure to the fundamentals of computer programming such as understanding loop structures and conditional statements, implementing stochastic processes, and understanding how the order of executed operations within a program impacts the program's output. agent-based modeling software like netlogo (wilensky 1999 ) keeps model implementation and analysis relatively simple by providing built-in model visualization tools and automatically randomizing the order in which agents execute programmed operations. due to their appealing visual representation, abms can easily be used in the classroom to demonstrate biological processes ranging from chemical reactions to interactions among species, as if the model were simply an animation. however, using abms in this way is much like using a cell phone to hammer nails (q.v., theobald (2004) ): it may work in the desired fashion, but represents an utter waste of the tool's real potential. adding just one more step, the collection of model-generated data, transforms a passive learning experience into an active one. students can be asked to calculate means and variances, graph relationships between variables, discuss the sample size needed for reliable results, and generate quantitative predictions under different hypotheses, all in the context of a specific biological question. this can be done even in a large classroom with only a single, instructor-controlled computer, bridging the gap between lecture and lab. if students have access to individual computers, much more is possible. either individually or in small groups, students can use abms to collect and analyze their own data. free file-sharing resources such as googledocs make it easy to pool data across many groups, thereby crowd-sourcing problems that would be too large for any one group to handle on their own. in smaller classes and lab sections, individuals or groups can be assigned to model different scenarios (e.g., the interaction effects between different parameters), prompting discussions of the most appropriate parameter values and model settings. such models can even be extended into miniature research projects. for example, in a unit on community ecology, students might be assigned a question about two interacting species, then use online resources to find relevant information and parameter estimates, design and conduct a series of model runs, analyze their data using simple statistical techniques, and present their findings to the class. although abms can be used to simulate almost any biological process, meaningful exploration of a model typically requires a substantial commitment of class time and instructor engagement. as a result, except in modeling courses, it is seldom practical to incorporate abms into every lesson plan. in our experience, their educational value is highest for studying processes involving (a) substantial amounts of stochasticity, (b) nonlinear interactions, and/or (c) a defined spatial structure. the inclusion of abms in math courses generally comes in two different modes: (1) abms are taught as one modeling technique in a course covering multiple modeling techniques, and (2) the construction and analysis of abms are taught in a course where abms are the only type of modeling being used. however, due to the minimal prerequisites for learning agent-based modeling, both types of courses can potentially be offered with one or no prerequisite courses. bodine (2018) provides an example of a course where abms are taught as one type of discrete-time modeling technique in an undergraduate course designed for biology, mathematics, biomathematics, and environmental science majors that has no prerequisites beyond high-school algebra. an example of a course where abms are the only type of modeling being used is given by bodine (2019); this course has only a single prerequisite: either a prior math modeling course which introduces basic computer programming or an introduction to computer science course. the use of biological applications in teaching mathematical modeling (including modeling with abms) is often viewed as having a lower entry point with less new vocabulary overhead than other types of applications (e.g., those from physics, chemistry, or economics). in particular, models of population dynamics, even those involving interactions between multiple subpopulations or different species, usually do not require any new vocabulary for most students, which allows for a more immediate focus on mechanisms of population change and impact of interactions between individuals within the populations. video game vs. scientific process. in our experience, students sometimes react to an abm's many controls and visual output by treating the model as a video game, clicking buttons at random to see what entertaining patterns they can create. other students prefer to complete the exercise as quickly as possible by blindly following the prescribed instructions. neither of these approaches substantially engages students in thinking about the question(s) underlying the model, different strategies for collecting and analyzing data, or the model's limitations. to foster these higher-order cognitive skills, use of the abm should be explicitly framed as an example of the scientific process. this approach begins with a set of initial observations and a specific biological question. for example, what management practices would be most effective in controlling the invasive brown tree snake? after familiarizing themselves with the biological system, students propose hypotheses about the factors contributing to the snake's success on guam, suggest management strategies, and set model parameters that reflect their chosen strategy. finally, they run the model multiple times to collect data that allow them to measure their strategy's effectiveness. under this pedagogical approach, abms become a vehicle for design-ing and conducting a miniature research project, enabling experiments that would not otherwise be practical due to cost, logistics, or ethical considerations. the modeling exercise can also reinforce lessons on how scientific knowledge is constructed and tested (e.g., the three p's of science, namely, problem posing, problem solving, and peer persuasion (watkins 1992) ). as part of this exercise, students should engage in the process of deciding how best to collect, analyze, and present their data. for example, as part of the brown tree snake project, students might be asked to explore the practical steps that other pacific islands could take to prevent invasions or eradicate invaders. one group of students decides to focus on two different control measures: cargo checks of all inbound flights and deployment of poison baits around airstrips. following an overview of different statistical approaches, the students determine that a multiple regression analysis would best allow them to address their question. allowed only a limited 'budget' of 30 model runs, students settle on a factorial design using three treatment levels of cargo checks, three levels of baiting, and three replicates of each combination. the students set up a spreadsheet to record the data from each model run, graph their data in a scatter plot, and use software such as microsoft excel's analysis toolpak to conduct their analysis. a model as a caricature of the real world. students at early stages of their academic career often envision science as a collection of factual information and fixed procedures. students with this mindset may dismiss as useless any model that does not incorporate every detail of a particular biological system. by contrast, scientists recognize that models, whether mathematical, physical, or conceptual, are deliberate simplifications that attempt to capture certain properties of a biological system while ignoring others (dahlquist 2017) . for example, the standard epidemiological sir model (diagrammed in fig. 1a ) divides a population in three subpopulations (susceptible, infectious, and removed) while ignoring any potential heterogeneity within each subpopulation (e.g., age, treatment status, groups at higher risk for transmission). students will need to engage in activities that frame the abm as a hypothesis about the organization and function of a specific biological system (weisstein 2011) . after a description (and possible exploration) of the basic model, students can work in groups to suggest additional processes and variables that seem relevant to understanding the system. they can then choose one or two of the factors that they consider most important to addressing the question being asked. finally, they should consider how to modify the model to incorporate the chosen features. for example, a standard epidemiological model divides the host population into susceptible, infectious, and removed subpopulations, and studies the movement of individuals among these subpopulations (fig. 1a) . a group of students decides to modify this model to track a malarial epidemic. after discussing mortality rates, prevention and treatment options, and genetic and age-related variation in host susceptibility, the students decide to focus on incorporating vector transmission into their model. through guided discussion with the instructor, they realize that transmission now occurs in two directions: from infected vectors to susceptible hosts and from infected hosts to uninfected vectors. they therefore develop a schematic model (fig. 1b) that depicts these revised rules for each agent in the abm. even if the students do not actually build the corresponding computational model, this exercise in extending a model to reflect specific biological assumptions helps students understand the iterative process by which models are developed and the utility of even simple models to clarify key features of the system's behavior. algorithms vs. equations. the concept of an equation is introduced fairly early in mathematics education. in the united states, children can encounter simple algebraic equations in elementary school (common core 2019) and then continue to see increasingly complex equations in math classes through college. because of this long exposure to equations, the use of functions and systems of equations to model systems in the natural world feels "natural" or logical to students when they first encounter differential equation models or matrix models. abms, on the other hand, can seem confusing to students because they lack the ability to be expressed as an equation or set of equations. an abm is constructed as an algorithm describing when and how each agent interacts with their local environment (which may include other agents). often these interactions are governed by stochastic processes, and thus "decisions" by agents are made through the generation of random numbers. when first introducing students to abms, it can be helpful to teach students how to read and construct computer program flowcharts and to create a visual representation of what is occurring within an algorithm or portion of an algorithm (see bodine (2019) for example assignments that utilize program flowchart construction). in life science classes where abms are being analyzed but not constructed and implemented, a flow diagram can be a useful tool for conveying the order processes occur in the model. class discussions can question whether the order of processes make biological sense, and whether there are alternatives. in math modeling classes, the construction of flowcharts, even for simple abms, can help students elucidate where decision points are within the code, and what procedures are repeated through loop structures. the construction of flowcharts as students progress to more complicated abms can help students rectify the order of events in their implemented algorithm against the order in which events should be occurring biologically. whether students are working with abms in life science or math modeling classes, it is helpful for them to learn how to read and understand flow diagrams as they are often included in research publications that use agent-based modeling. describing an abm. much to the alarm of many math students beginning to develop abms, the formal description of an abm requires more than just writing the computer code. the standard method for describing abms in scientific publications, referred to as the overview, design concepts, and details (odd) protocol (grimm 2006 (grimm , 2010 railsback & grimm 2012) , often requires more than one page to fully describe even a simple abm. this can make abms seem overwhelming to students as they first begin to explore abms. in courses which teach the implementation and description of abms, instructors should take care not to introduce the computer code implementation simultaneous to the model description via the odd protocol. note that the introductory text on agent-based modeling by railsback & grimm (2012) does not introduce the concept of the odd protocol until chapter 3, which comes after the introduction and implementation (in netlogo) of a simple abm in chapter 2. in the course materials by bodine (2019) , the concept of the odd protocol is introduced prior to project 2, but the students are not required to write their own odd protocol description until the final project, once they have seen odd descriptions for multiple models. model implementation vs. the modeling cycle. courses that aim to teach methods in mathematical modeling often start with a discussion of the modeling cycle, which is typically presented as a flow diagram showing the loop of taking a real world question, representing it as a mathematical model, analyzing the model to address the question, and then using the results to ask the next question or refine the original real world question. figure 2 shows an example of a modeling cycle diagram. in courses where the mathematical models are encapsulated in one or a small handful of equations, the time spent on representing the real world as a mathematical model (the green box in fig. 2) is relatively short. the construction of abms, however, can be a fairly lengthy process, as abms are designed to simulate interactions between individuals and the local environment. when students are in the middle of constructing their first few abms, they often lose sight of where they are in the modeling cycle because the model implementation becomes a cycle of its own; a cycle of writing bits of code, testing the code to see if it runs and produces reasonable results, and repeating this process to slowly add all the components needed for the full algorithm of the abm. as students are first learning agent-based modeling, they need to be reminded often to pull back and view where they are in the modeling cycle; to see the flock for the boids, as it were. model validation. within the modeling cycle, there is a smaller cycle of model validation (see dashed line in fig. 2) . in a course where students are first introduced to the classic lotka-volterra predator-prey model, the students are usually first introduced to a predator-prey data set (like the 200-year data set of canadian lynx and snowshoe hare pelts purchased by the hudson bay company (maclulich 1937; elton & nicholson 1942) ), which shows the oscillating population densities of the predator and prey populations. when the students then simulate the lotka-volterra model for various parameter sets, they find that they are able to produce the same oscillating behavior of the predator and prey populations. this is a form of model validation, and a model which did not display this distinctive trend seen in the data would be considered invalid for that data set. a similar process must occur for validating abms against observed biological patterns. however, in order to engage in this validation process for abms, students must first understand how decisions of individual agents and interactions between neighboring agents can lead to system-level observable patterns, a phenomenon referred to as "emergence" or the "emergent properties" of an abm. the classic abm example for easily identifying an emergent property is a flocking example (a stock example of flocking exists in the netlogo models library, and is explored in chapter 8 of the abm textbook by railsback & grimm (2012) ). the concept of an emergent property can take a little while for students to fully understand. by definition, it is an observable outcome that the system was not specifically programmed to produced. in particular, it is not a summation of individual-level characteristics, and is typically not easily predicted from the behaviors and characteristics of the agents. for example, a variation of the reynolds (1987) flocking model is included in the netlogo library and is explored in railsback & grimm (2012, chapter 8 ). in the model, each agent moves based on three rules: 1. separate: maintain a minimum distance from nearby agents 2. align: move in the same direction as nearby agents 3. cohere: move closer to nearby agents where all agents move at the same speed and different schemes for determining who is a nearby agent can be used. additionally, there are model parameters for the minimum distance to be maintained between agents, and the degree to which an agent can turn left or right in a single time step in order to align, cohere, and separate. it is not immediately evident from this set of rules that individual agents might be able to form flocks (or swarm together), and indeed that system-level behavior does not emerge for all parameter sets. however, certain parameter sets do lead to the agents forming one or more flocks that move together through the model landscape. students observations: algorithms for pattern recognition. one of the most exciting moments for students when they first begin running simulations of an abm is seeing systemlevel patterns emerge before their eyes. one of the challenges for students (and agentbased modelers, in general) is to develop algorithms to identify and/or quantify the patterns we can easily identify by sight. for example, in the flocking abm discussed above, an observer watching the locations of individual agents change at each time step can easily see the formation of flocks. if however, the observer wanted to systematically explore the parameter space of the flocking abm and determine the regions of the parameter space under which flocking occurs (a process which might involve running hundreds or thousands of simulations), it would be a tedious and time-consuming task to physically watch each simulation and record whether the agents formed a flock or not. instead, the observer must choose the criteria that indicate the formation of a flock, and then determine a measure or an algorithm for determining whether a flock (or multiple flocks) have formed. in a course designed to teach the construction and analysis of abms, this is a point where students should be encouraged to be both creative and methodical about developing such measures and algorithms. the development of these observational measures and algorithms also provides a great opportunity for collaboration between students. it is especially helpful if students with a diversity of academic backgrounds can be brought together to brainstorm ideas; for instance, mixing students with various levels of exposure in mathematics, computer science, and biology can be very beneficial. rapid advances in computing power over the past decades have made agent-based modeling a feasible and appealing tool to study biological systems. in undergraduate mathematical biology education, there are multiple modes by which abms are utilized and taught in the classroom. in biology classrooms, abms can be used to engage students in hypothesis testing and in the experimental design and data collection processes of otherwise infeasible experiments, and to enable students to utilize models as a part of the scientific process. all of this can be done without students having to learn a programming language. by contrast, students who have had some exposure to computer programming can learn the construction, implementation, and analysis of agent-based models in a math or computer science modeling class. biological applications are ideal systems for first attempts at agent-based models as they typically do not necessitate learning extensive new vocabulary and theory to understand the basic components that need to be included in the model. throughout this article, we endeavored to articulate the benefits and challenges of including abms in undergraduate life science and math modeling courses. consistent with the bio2010 report (2003), we recommend that undergraduate biology and life science curricula be structured to ensure that all students have some exposure to mathematical modeling. we additionally recommend that this includes agent-based modeling. while not every student necessarily needs to take a course exclusively focused on agent-based modeling, every undergraduate biology student should have the opportunity to utilize an abm to perform experiments and to collect and analyze data. as we educate the next-generation of life scientists, let us empower them with the ability to utilize abms to simulate and better understand our complex and dynamic world. agent based modelling and simulation tools: a review of the state-of-art software in silico 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röös, elin; swannell, richard p.j. title: the role of reducing food waste for resilient food systems date: 2020-07-31 journal: ecosyst serv doi: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101140 sha: doc_id: 346920 cord_uid: 3wvo7fs3 food waste undermines long-term resilience of the global food system by aggravating ecosystem damage. the global community must therefore work to reduce the amount of food that gets wasted. however, we should be mindful of some potential conflicts between food waste reduction and food system resilience. over-production and over-supply are a contributing cause of waste, yet they also provide resilience in the form of redundancy. in this paper, we examine individual interventions designed to minimise food waste by scoring their impact on different aspects of resilience. we find that there are strong synergistic elements and interventions that support shortand long-term resilience, such as improved storage, which reduces the need to provide a constant flow of ‘surplus food’ and replaces it with a stock of ‘spare’ food. some interventions carry a risk of trade-offs due to possible losses of redundancy, and investment lock-in that may reduce the ability of farmers to adapt by changing what and where they farm. trade-offs do not mean that those interventions should not be pursuit, but they should be recognised so that can be adequately addressed with complimentary actions. this review underlines the necessity of food-systems thinking and joined-up policy. food systems around the world face multiple challenges, and multiple objectives as response to those challenges. two of such separate objectives are (i) to increase the resilience of food system -the ability of the food system to withstand and to recover from shocks, (sustainable development goal 2.4), and (ii) to reduce food waste in the food system (sustainable development goal 12.3). the underlying reason for improving resilience is to ensure disturbances do not reduce food security, and the underlying reason for reducing food waste is to improve the environmental sustainability of food production. there are a few possible interpretations of the relationship between 'sustainability' and 'resilience' (roostaie et al., 2019) . the two concepts can be seen as one and the same, or largely overlapping (maleksaeidi and karami, 2013) . tendall et al. (2015) see food system resilience as a pre-requisite to its sustainability, as food systems cannot 'sustainably' continue provisioning food unless they are able to overcome disturbances. however, due to the magnitude of the impacts that food systems have on the environment and ecosystem services that support the food production itself (foley et al., 2005 , costanza et al., 2014 we argue that food system sustainability (aimed at reducing those impacts) is also a prerequisite for long-term food system resilience. this paper therefore takes the view that sustainability and resilience are separate concepts, but the achievement of one is largely required to achieve the other. but herein lies a tension: while food sustainability and resilience are pre-requisites of each-other, some of their building blocks are opposing. the concept of redundancy for example, which is considered as one of key principles of resilience (biggs et al., 2012; tendall et al., 2015) , can in some manifestations be in conflict with increasing efficiency, including reductions of waste, which are key strategies to achieve food sustainability (godfray and garnett, 2014; bajželj et al., 2014) . how can we still achieve the goals of resilience and sustainability simultaneously? are there food waste reduction interventions that are synergetic with resilience that we could prioritise, and others that are opposing and that we should therefore de-prioritise or re-consider? what trade-offs should we be mindful of? to answer these questions, this papers sets out to analyse linkages between food waste reductions and food system resilience. t food waste reduction, impacts on other areas of concern -in this case the resilience of the overall food system. with this paper, we aim to cover all major stages of the supply chain, and develop concepts broad and universal enough to cover different geographies, traditional and modern food systems, low income and high-income settings. often, food systems span across different geographies and income settings and modes of production (for example, farmers in kenya growing green beans for markets in the european union along with subsistence crops). while the need for more resilient food system is most acutely felt in the low-income setting, the opportunities to improve both food waste and resilience exist across all types of food system, its stages and geographies. while the challenges of some actors in the food supply chains, e.g. small-holder farmers, are unique, many concepts apply to several stages of supply chain. for example, both a farmer and a household provider may struggle with matching food 'supply and demand'. for a farmer this may mean planting just the right amount to meet his contract without wasting seeds, fertiliser, time and energy. for a provider this may mean buying just the right amount to feed the family for the next week. food system resilience, the ability of the food system to withstand and to recover from shocks, is of increasing interest due to the increase in climatic and price variability, political instability. adding to this it the recent experience of the threats to the food system from pandemics, threatening to further increase the increasing number of undernourished people globally (fao, ifad, unicef, wfp and who, 2018) . existing definitions of food system resilience (schipanski et al., 2016; tendall et al., 2015; urruty et al., 2016; biggs et al., 2012) refer to the ability to withstand shocks and external pressures while maintaining the system's basic structure, processes, and functions, through buffering capacity, adaptability and ability to recover from disturbances. food system resilience is closely related to ecosystem services, as the production related disturbances we worry about (crop failures due to e.g. floods, droughts and disease) are often related to the failure or insufficient provision of supporting and regulating ecosystem services. the stocks of natural capital that provide these services continue to shrink (costanza et al., 2017 (costanza et al., , 2014 , driven by anthropogenic climate and global environmental change. there are multiple causes of this, but one of the largest driver is actually food production and its expansion itself (foley et al., 2005) . meaning that food production activities undermine their own resilience, which is exacerbated by over-production of food caused by much of the food being wasted. threats to food system resilience are compounded by a number of other factors, including the increasing homogenization of crops and agricultural landscapes. food resilience is also related to food security (adequate access to safe and nutritious food by all people), but here we treat them as separate concepts. for the purpose of this paper, we consider the stability and recovery from disturbances as main attributes of resilience, which is one of the important conditions to achieving stable food supply and therefore food security. other conditions, most notably sufficient social security and income levels, are additional factors needed to ensure food security. in this paper we use the term 'food waste' as a general term to refer to material which was produced with the intention to be consumed by people, but ultimately exited the food supply chain. we do not separate the terms 'food loss' (often used to describe losses earlier in the supply chain, or those related mostly to the lack of infrastructure and access to market), and the term 'food waste' (often used to describe losses later in the supply chain, or those related to the behaviour of different actors) (chaboud and daviron, 2017) , as often multiple factors -a combination of structural and behavioural ones -are at play regardless of where in the supply chain food is lost. the intervention to address food loss and food waste are often hard to distinguish as well; however, the consequences of the interventions may be different (see the discussion). the un fao estimated that roughly one-third, or about 1.3 billion tonnes per year, of the edible parts of food produced globally for human consumption is lost or wasted (gustavsson et al., 2011) . this global estimate is based on extrapolation and is in need of an update, but while it is possible that the wastage is somewhat higher or lower, it is undoubtedly significant. food waste across supply chain has been more robustly measured by a small number of individual countries, roughly arriving at similar estimates (wrap, 2019). the causes of food waste are complex and varied. in this paper, we put forward the following framework on causes of food waste. as a simplification, each instance of food waste could be explained as a 'rational' economic decision based on comparing the cost of time and materials (infrastructure, appropriate storage etc.) needed to prevent wasting food, with the value of food at risk of waste. this decisionmaking process by actors in the supply chain is however further complicated by the following issues: 1. in low-income settings, access to capital and infrastructure present barriers, for example a farmer in kenya may be aware that investing in a cooler would pay back quickly through all the milk saved from spoilage, but they may still not be able to afford to buy a cooler in the first place; see (gromko and abdurasulova, 2018) . 2. issues related to these decisions are being made on the basis of perceived costs (of both time and resources needed on one side and food on the other side), which are often different to market costs (value of food on the market), which themselves are different to true costs (costs also including externalities). people are often unaware of the cumulative financial value of the food that they waste (this is true for both consumers, as well as factory managers and even farmers (wrap, 2017)). furthermore, the financial cost of food is typically much below its true cost, i.e. one that would price in all externalities such as ghg emissions, the cost of pollution generated, the economic losses associated with biodiversity losses etc. (chen et al., 2014; national research council, 2012) . the market therefore tends to under-price and under-value food (benton and bailey, 2019) . as a consequence, the decisions that lead to food waste may be rational for that individual and the market, but are not rational at all from a societal or whole-system perspective. 3. many decisions leading to food waste may not be rational at all, as we are not very good at rationally considering everyday decisions, which are often done habitually on a subconscious level (kahneman, 2012) . it has been suggested that an oversupply of 30% over the nutritional need is desired to ensure adequate food supply (papargyropoulou et al., 2014; smil, 2004) . it has therefore been suggested, that only waste over 30% (as is likely the case in most high income countries, but not low income countries) is excessive -the rest is a natural result of the overproduction needed for food security, in other words, short-term resilience. on the other hand, a significant food waste reduction has been suggested as one of several key systemic changes that could significantly reduce the unsustainable use of ecosystem services and natural capital, including a significant reduction in ghg emission from the food system, which are key for long-term resilience. kummu et al. (2012) show the total land, water and fertiliser footprint of global food loss and waste are significant. bajželj et al. (2014) , röös et al. (2017) and springmann et al. (2018) have all shown, on the basis of modelling approaches, that low-waste food systems (food systems where current wastage rates are halved) would require significantly less land, water and reduce ghg emissions associated with the food system in the future in scenarios for 2050. according to these studies, food sustainability goals seem out of reach without a significant reduction of food waste; such findings has also led to the formulation of sdg 12.3 of halving food loss and waste. stopping the unsustainable use of natural capital is important for food system resilience in the long term, as food system resilience is already at risk from climate change and increasing scarcity of suitable agricultural land and water reserves and decline in many ecosystem services crucial for food production. however, as the concept of the 30% safety margin exemplifies, food waste reduction may run contrary to some aspects of resilience. the complex direct and indirect, shortterm and long-term relationships between resilience and food waste reduction have not yet been explored. in this paper we examine the main linkages, positive and negative, between low waste and high resilience food systems. a significant reduction of food waste seems essential to establish long-term resilience, but could lead to short-term trade-offs. we therefore also examine individual interventions aimed at food waste reduction through the lens of food system resilience. we discuss in more detail the interventions that appeared most synergistic for both food system objectives, and suggest how policy could benefit. we studied the literature that describe the principles, policies, strategies and characteristics to achieve either food waste reduction or increased resilience, and mapped reinforcing and opposing linkages between these two food system objectives. the literature describes different 'characteristics' or 'principles' of a resilient food system. for food waste, the literature mostly discusses 'policies' (e.g. food waste measurements and reporting), and environmental and social 'costs' of the current food waste levels. in this paper, we suggest a novel approach to group and differentiate these concepts in a way that facilitates identifying linkages between the two objectives. we propose a separation between: 1. interventions, which are defined as concrete, practical mechanisms to achieve fostering conditions. for example, putting irrigation in place is a resilience intervention that provides stability. provision of dryers improves overall storage capacity and is an example of a food waste reduction intervention. 2. fostering conditions are conditions that will make reaching desired food system objectives more likely (some of which we can directly influence by policy or interventions); 3. objectives are key characteristics that describe the status of the food system that were the overall goal of the interventions; and 4. other outcomes are those that are also likely to occur as a consequence of the reaching the objective that are of concern for sustainability or resilience (desired or undesired). we reviewed a wide range of academic and grey literature to characterise food waste reduction interventions, fostering conditions, objectives and outcomes, all described below. food waste reduction interventions were defined as specific activities and changes to the food system that lead to less food being lost or wasted across the supply chain. these include changes to infrastructure and operations alongside changes that target human behaviour (e.g. through training or campaigns) along the supply chain. these need to be specific enough to have a clear mechanism through which they work. to ensure we were comprehensive, we searched in scopus using the following combinations of terms: either "food waste" or "food loss" and either "intervention" or "behaviour change" for any year. a range of articles related to food waste policy were also reviewed. the majority of articles related to the household consumption stage. we augmented the academic literature review with case studies from grey literature and media. fostering conditions were one of the following: broader system characteristics that multiple interventions aimed to achieve; broader policy context; or a reversal of the key drivers for waste, drawn from the same literature as above, most importantly from the following papers and reports: parfitt et al., (2010) , quested et al. (2013) , papargyropoulou et al. (2014) , hlpe (2014), schanes et al. (2018) , wrap (2017) and flanagan et al. (2019) . these agree that higher awareness of food waste as an issue and widespread measurement and reporting are the basic condition to reduce the levels of food waste across all stages of the supply chain. some of these authors and organisation however also emphasise that this in itself in not enough. better storage capacity/infrastructure as well as reduced rate of spoilage (either through improved conditions or skills) of food when it is either in storage and transit, are commonly mentioned. matching of supply (production) and demand, both in quantity, quality and time is another broad condition that would prevent waste in most stages of supply chain (either through planning, forecasting or communication). increasing the value of food (e.g. with priced-in externalities) or cost of wasting is highlighted by fao (2018) and benton and bailey (2019) . the objectives of a low waste food system were defined as a significant reduction in the flow of food material leaving the food system, and a significant increase in the ratio between food consumed and food grown. other outcomes. according to economic theory (rutten, 2013) , reducing food waste may lead to two outcomes (providing we avoid shifting waste from one stage of supply chain to another): (i) increase food consumption or (ii) reduced food production. in the absence of other changes in the food system, the occurrence of one over the other depends on the elasticity of supply and demand, through a downward pressure on food prices. a combination of both may also occur. policy can be used to encourage one of these outcomes over the other. both of these outcomes have consequences for resilience, through different mechanisms. where food security is an issue, increased consumption of (nutritious) foods can be a positive development and directly improve resilience. elsewhere, and when it comes to less nutritious foods, it would be more beneficial from a sustainability perspective to steer the system towards reducing over-production (rather than increasing consumption) and therefore reducing the use of resources including land, water, fertiliser, pesticides and seeds, reducing ghg emissions and pollution and maximising ecosystem services. an additional reduction in ghg emissions and pollutions comes from reduced waste management requirements (e.g. less waste in landfill). however, reduced overproduction also means that there is a reduced surplus flow of food in the system. we characterised food system resilience based on the following literature: biggs et al., 2012; ingram, 2011; schipanski et al., 2016; tendall et al., 2015; urruty et al., 2016; . from these papers, we pooled together what authors described as characteristics, principles or mechanisms of food system resilience, and categorised them according to the conceptual framework designed here. resilience interventions -concrete and specific activities implemented to improve food production that recovers quickly from disruptions -were taken as examples from the literature listed above. unlike for food waste we did not attempt to provide an exhaustive list of the interventions, as the main focus of this paper is to examine the role of food waste reduction on resilience (not vice-versa; although we also touch on that in the initial step -conceptual mapping). as fostering conditions for resilience we considered: • stability, mainly reduced likelihood and magnitude of disruption events themselves, such as extreme weather events leading to crop failures, and the ongoing increase in mean temperatures affecting crops, livestock, pest and pollinators in various ways, water scarcity, pest and disease outbreaks (ipcc, 2019), and also shocks to supply chains including disrupted access to labour and markets, as the ongoing (2020) disruptions to the food systems due to the new corona virus epidemic exemplifies. • diversity of crops, livestock, production systems, inputs, landscapes, income streams, customers and suppliers increases resilience according to biggs et al., 2012 and schipanski et al., 2016) . the principle of resilience in diversity is that individual crops, communities or products will carry different responses to the disruptive condition. diversity of crops and landscape may also for example prevent or slow down the spread of pest and disease outbreaks (schipanski et al., 2016 ). • redundancy, which can mean either interchangeability (according to biggs et al. (2012) , however we will consider this under flexibility) or spare capacity (of food itself, but also land, water, income, inputs (e.g. fertilisers and fuels), supporting and regulating ecosystem services), according to tendall et al. (2015) . spare food capacity emerges as a critical issue with apparent trade-offs between resilience and low waste/efficiency. • flexibility and interchangeability, being able to use the food that you have for several purposes (biggs et al., 2012) , swap one food for another, or derive income in different ways from different sources. e.g. pigs were traditionally valued as domestic animals that could take a variety of different feeds, but modern livestock systems use breeds and systems that are specialised, increasing efficiency at the expense of flexibility. today food supply chains are quite inflexible through pursuit of efficiency. inflexibility (e.g. strict cosmetic specification, strict contracting in time and quantity) can also lead to waste on farm levels. • adaptability is related to flexibility, but refers to the relative ease of making significant changes, i.e. adaptation to the way food is produced and procured. for example, farmers changing crops, calendars, locations. transformational (i.e. abrupt) adaptation may be needed due to the pace of climate change and change in weather patterns -not just step-wise adaptation to the signals as they come, but a pre-emptive, fundamental shift in practices and locations . adaptation also includes technical innovations such as more resilient breeds. • connectivity in food system includes trade, communication along the supply chain, as well as the connection between different kinds b. bajželj, et al. ecosystem services 45 (2020) 101140 of ecosystem services, for example the proximity of pollinator habitats to crops requiring pollination (biggs et al., 2012) . the downside of high connectivity is that diseases and other disturbances can spread faster. the objectives are defined as stable supply in the face of disruption and quick recovery from disruption. other outcomes. improved food security and stable food prices are two of the outcomes that are desired from a resilient food system. however, redundancy, flexibility and diversity may lead to reduced efficiency. diversity typically reduces economies of scale associated with specialisation (compare a large farm growing few crops in rotation with specialised equipment to a farm that grow many crops), while redundancy may lead to not all food produced being eaten. we mapped the interlinkages between the objectives, outcomes, and fostering conditions of the two desired system states on a long-term food systems level, by laying them out and examining where the causes and interactions (both synergetic and opposing) might occur between the systems, and represented them graphically on fig. 1 using a similar technique also used to produce causal loop diagrams (e.g. foresight, 2015) . to further untangle potential synergies and trade-offs, and move from abstract to concrete examples, we assessed how individual food waste interventions influence short-term resilience, as represented by fostering condition of the resilience (as described above in conceptual framework). the list of food waste interventions and resilience conditions were obtained from the literature as explained above. we grouped the interventions by different stages of the supply chain in three tables: primary production, then grouping together processing, manufacturing, distribution, retail and food service, and finally the consumer stage. in the tables we considered how a large-scale implementation of each intervention would impact on food system resilience, looking at each fostering condition at the time. three of the four co-authors, giving a good spread of expertise across food waste along the supply chain, and food system resilience, scored the influences individually and independently, by posing themselves the question: would the system be more or less resilient after the intervention in question, and through what mechanisms. scores were there compared, and we had a discussion, focusing particularly on any scores that diverged, agreeing the final scores. we scored the impact with a '+' if the intervention would impact positively on that fostering condition for resilience, a '-' if it was negative, a '0′ if it had little or no effect and a '+/−' if it had an mixed effect. if we all felt that the effect was unclear, we marked it with a '?'. in regard to stability, as we have already established that successful food waste prevention will have positive effects on climate stability, and the supply of ecosystem goods and services including water, we have focused on more short-term aspects such as their effect on stable supply and demand (otherwise all interventions would be scored positively for stability). 3.1. linkages between food waste reduction and food system resilience on a system level fig. 1 shows the interlinkages between the objectives, outcomes, and fostering conditions of the two desired system states. solid lines show reinforcing interactions, and dashed lines show opposing interactions. the magnitudes of the links are difficult to quantify, although it is clear that some of the links are more significant and more direct than others. one link that has been quantified in the literature is between the reduced over-production and reduced ghg emissions, land and water use. bajželj et al. (2014) and springmann et al. (2018) for example quantified these for hypothetical, global future scenarios, and most recently by philippidis et al. (2019) for current situation in the european union. through this analysis we concluded that food waste reduction is essential for long-term food system resilience (through substantial reduction of resource use and ghg emissions, both of which are critical for long-term resilience), but that the issue of 'redundancy' was a hotspot where both trade-offs and synergies between food waste reduction and resilience in the short-term may occur. this is further illustrated with fig. 2 . actors in the food chain cannot exactly predict how much food they will produce and/or require. under-supply typically has graver shortterm consequences compared to over-supply, leading to actors, who want to achieve resilience, systemically over-producing and over-supplying. high levels of waste are, in part, a symptom of such resiliencemotivated over-production, at the expense of long-term resilience, as it depletes natural capital, reduces supply of ecosystem services and contributes to de-stabilisation of climate. another direct link between food waste reduction and resilience occurs when increased food consumption is needed and positively affects consumers, directly increasing food security. in these cases, food waste reduction (most often through prevention of spoilage) directly improves resilience. food waste reduction can also help with food affordability if prices rise. this is partially what we understand happened in the uk between 2007 and 2012, when the food waste reduction information campaign (love food hate waste) in combination with economic downturn and rising food prices, helped reduce household food waste by estimated 24% whilst also helping people to save money and maintain the quality of their food purchases (britton et al., 2014; wrap, 2019) . we can assume a similar effect in low-income settings as it follows from economic theory (rutten, 2013) . however, we lack empirical data to test this hypothesis. table 1 shows the result of assessing individual interventions in primary production, focused mostly on farms with some interventions that also apply to other types of primary production, e.g. fishing. primary production is a hotspot for both waste and resilience, as it is exposed to two sources of variability and uncertainty: 1) the variability of natural systems and growing conditions and therefore yields and timing, and 2) the variability of the social system, reflected in dashed line signifies that over-production is often a result of seeking resilience. b. bajželj, et al. ecosystem services 45 (2020) 101140 table 1 the interactions between food waste reduction interventions and resilience at primary production level. for definitions and description of the resilience conditions, see the methodology section. '+' marks positive impact of the intervention on that fostering condition for resilience, '-' a negative impact, '0′ little or no effect, '+/−' mixed effect, and '?' if effects are unclear (bradford et al., 2018; cbi, 2014; gitonga et al., 2013; morante et al., 2010; neff et al., 2015; springer et al., 2013) . fluctuations in the demand quantities, prices on the market and demand timing. some of the interventions are aimed at reducing the variability (e.g. robust varieties), or help farmers match the levels of production and demand (forecasting) or bridge them in time (storage). these interventions generally help reduce both food waste and improve resilience, provided that they are done well and are resilient themselves (for example, storage could be sensitive to disturbances e.g. floods or disruptions in energy supply). overall, we have found that even in the short-term, most food waste interventions at primary production level have positive, synergetic influences on various aspects of resilience, particularly stability and flexibility, and a few also for connectivity. the implementation of these farm-level interventions, particularly if aimed at small-holders, will require provision of financing, equipment and training. as expected, redundancy was one aspect for which the scores were mixed. some interventions, mostly those directly or indirectly related to storage and food longevity, were scored as positive, while others that reduce the amount of surplus without increasing longevity scored negatively. interventions that reduce over-production without compensating for redundancy in another way may pose some risk in reducing short-term resilience, but may still be worthwhile doing to improve long term resilience. for farmers, losses of crops due to something unexpected can be catastrophic for their business and livelihood. the surplus has comparatively small effect, even if wasted (feeback, 2016; johnson et al. 2012) . it is therefore farmer's need for resilience that leads to this type of 'systemic over-production' and waste. however, this 'need for redundancy' could be reduced if the risks associated with variability were more evenly distributed along the supply chain (e.g. by wholesalers and retailers giving more flexibility to their suppliers), though improved insurance, forecasting and storage. interventions that directly target resilience, such as increasing income diversity and improving water supply, can also remove some of the farmer's need to over-plant and therefore reduce waste. adaptability was the other aspect that could be negatively affected by food waste interventions, when the intervention created a lock-in to certain location and crop. for example, a construction of silo or an immobile drying unit can further lock the farmer to a specific crop and location, depending on how crop-specific and mobile the intervention is. we have found that the food waste interventions seemed neutral for the diversity of crops, breeds and foods (and only linked to landscape diversity in the long-term through land resource savings). we grouped the intermediate stages in the supply chain because some of the interventions are common, for example those that refer to a seller and buyer relationship. another reason is that, compared to primary production and the end-consumer, the rest of supply chain receives relatively little coverage in the academic literature and grey literature, and therefore the number of suggested interventions and case studies is relatively low. similarly, existing food resilience literature mainly considers primary production as the stage that is most exposed to natural variability, or consumers and their availability to access safe and nutritious food. many interactions were given a neutral score, especially for diversity and adaptability. we did not find as much synergistic potential with improving stability as we did for the primary production. however, connectivity stood out as the resilience condition that would benefit from many food waste interventions in the middle of the supply chain. similar to primary production, some food waste interventions were scored as positive, some negative and some as mixed for redundancy. interventions targeted at household waste have the highest potential when it comes to freeing-up resources and reducing food waste related ghg emissions, and therefore, long-term resilience through stability, for two reasons: in high and middle-income settings, the volume of waste is the largest at the consumption stage, and secondly, this food has accumulated more impact as it processed through the supply chain (for example, it has been transported, stored, perhaps processed and pre-prepared). there are many different interventions targeted at households. they broadly fall in two categories: a) behavioural interventions -promoting behaviours that lead to lower wastage of food; aimed at householders themselves, such as storing and using up leftover food, including incentives to reduce overbuying, improved understanding of date labels, correct portioning when cooking, use of leftovers, optimal storage (including keeping fridges at a temperature below 5 degrees celsius), freezing of food that will not be used in time, and use of long shelf life products (canned and dried foods) (quested and luzecka, 2014; reynolds et al., 2019; schanes et al., 2018) b) technical interventions -changes to products themselves, for example a change in packaging that increases shelf-life and therefore increases the likelihood that the food will get eaten before it spoils, including changes in pack-sizes and pricing structures to discourage over-buying; increasing shelf-life and open-life through innovative packing, changes to food itself (e.g. using different bacteria cultures in cheese or yoghurt), or reducing the time it takes to get food to market (lee et al., 2015) ; changing the date labelling to avoid overly-cautious discarding of food; improving storage and freezing guidance on packs (wrap et al., 2017) . consumer behaviour can affect the stability of demand and cause spikes and dips in food demand. in the uk for example, foods such as burgers, strawberries and lettuce are typical foods that will sell very well in sunny weather and spike around sporting events, whilst demand plummets in rainy weather. growers and producers aim to meet surges in demand, however if expected demand does not materialize produce remains in the field (wrap, 2017) or is wasted elsewhere. some of this waste could be prevented with better forecasting, however the consumption habits could also adapt; for example, by aiming to match consumption to the growing season. most interventions investigated were scored positively for improving stability. the scores were mixed again for redundancy and also more mixed for flexibility and adaptability, with some interventions potentially reducing the number of options households have in any given moment when it comes to food. there were more links with diversity than in other stages of supply chain -as some interventions promote specific types of foods, typically long-life products, which either add or reduce diversity, but very little identified impact on connectivity. key interventions that emerged as synergistic for food waste and are improved storage, transport, surplus valorisation, increased shelf life, and promotion of long shelf life products. food storage can take place in many stages of the supply chain and can take many forms, for example grain stores, which can be operated from national to village or individual farm scales. food is stored in many other ways as well (not necessarily labelled as storage): on farms, in warehouses, cold stores and industrial freezers, in supermarkets, while in transport on ships and trucks, and also individual households' cupboards, fridges and freezers. each one of these stages adds up to the overall storage capacity of the food system, and each could potentially be improved. (see tables 1-3 for examples) . preparing and storing food optimally creates a buffering capacity different to a continuous surplus production by creating a reserve. in systems dynamics terminology, better storage replaces a need for a constant additional 'flow' with increasing the 'stock' (from which occasionally an additional flow can be drawn). for example, families could rely more on having well-stocked cupboards with long-life cupboard essentials that can also be made into a nutritious meal, rather than constantly buy more perishable foods than they use. surplus production could be diverted to become a reserve by extending shelf life through canning and dehydration of fruit, meat, dairy and vegetable products, to be used in times of scarcity and disruptions in food supply due to a variety of different reasons from droughts to epidemics. this would be a much more resource-efficient way of providing resilience compared to over-production year on year. improved storage is not necessarily about only the size of storage (warehouse, fridge etc.), but table 2 the interactions between food waste reduction interventions and resilience at intermediate steps in the food supply chain (blanke, 2014; wrap, 2013a; cohen et al., 2014; dora et al., 2019; freedman and brochado, 2010; kallbekken and saelen, 2013; parfitt et al., 2016; refed, 2016; stöckli et al., 2018; wansink and van ittersum, 2013; williamson et al., 2016; wrap, 2013b) . the interactions between food waste reduction interventions and resilience at consumer level (devaney and davies, 2017; fisher and whittaker, 2018; ganglbauer et al., 2013) . conditions (e.g. temperature, air moisture) and preparation of food stored (drying, pre-cooling, mould-free) . it should be noted that there are some challenges associated with having a higher proportion of food as reserves. stock management in both the supply chain and in homes may need to be improved to ensure that the food in storage is circulated correctly. secondly, on a foodsystem basis, having a larger proportion of overall food in storage may mean that on average, the time between harvest and consumption increases, highlighting the need to monitor not only food safety, but also food quality and nutritional value. thirdly, there are trade-offs between increasing some types of storage capacity, especially cooling and freezing, and energy use -increased energy use leading to increases in ghg emissions and cost. and lastly, the resilience of storage against same of different kinds of disturbances that effect food production should also be considered (e.g. energy supply, susceptibility to pests etc.). improved storage should reduce price volatility. at harvest time, especially in good years, the price of produce (e.g. grains, vegetables) on the market is low, but farmers without safe storage options are forced to sell despite the low prices they receive. similarly, consumers without storage or access to food with longer shelf-life cannot bulk-buy and store foods when prices are low. if neither producers of consumers can store, prices are more likely to spike outside main harvest seasons. higher prices in one year can attract many newcomer producers in the next season, leading to over-production the next year, therefore low prices and high waste when price does not even justify harvest costs (which are significant, johnson et al. 2012 ) perpetuating a boom and bust cycle. price volatility is therefore not only a sign of a system with low resilience, but it can also lead to waste. in a market economy, changing prices are unavoidable, and are valuable signals about scarcity and over-production, and distorting them through some market mechanism may lead to unintended consequences. however improved storage, preparation of food for storage, diversification into longer-life products and innovation in insurance could reduce some of the high demand volatility and make optimal production decisions easier for farmers and other actors in the food supply chain. reducing food waste in most cases leads to a good return on investment (wrap, 2015; hanson and mitchell, 2017; gromko and abdurasulova, 2018) , improving the profitability and income of the people involved in the point of the stage of supply chain where food waste is being reduced. as such, food waste reduction leads to increased resilience of that actor in the chain, say a farmer or manufacturer. this also applies to consumers. for example, data in the uk (britton et al., 2014) suggests that in the context of reducing disposable income and rising food prices, people that reduced the food that they wasted were able to continue buying the same quality of food they were buying before. reduced food waste can also present an opportunity to increase added value in the supply chain. when customers save money but not over-buying in quantity, they are often happy to spend more on 'quality' (britton et al., 2014) . however, assuming food waste reduction at consumer level does lead to financial savings, these could result in rebound effects if they are spent on other polluting activities, diminishing some of the environmental gains (martinez-sanchez et al., 2016; salemdeeb et al., 2017) . in this paper we focused on reducing food waste 'at source' (i.e. food waste prevention). however, there are other mitigating actions that also count as food waste reduction: for example, feeding the surplus food material or food scraps to livestock (zu ermgassen et al., 2016) and using it as feedstocks in bio-economy, for example extracting limonene from waste orange peel (wrap, 2015) . these 'surplus valorisation activities' too can lead to significant resource savings, although typically less than prevention. zu ermgassen et al. (2016) for example calculated that feeding food scraps to pigs through advanced centralised swill operations similar to those operating in japan and south korea could also lead to significant land-use savings of 1.8 million hectares in europe, compared to 6.0 million hectares calculated for food waste prevention by philippidis et al. (2019) . they can also potentially contribute to increased resilience if the flows of material out of the food system can be used to feed humans during times of crisis, and should be pursued in addition to food waste prevention to reduce pressure on resources. some surprising linkages between food waste and resilience emerged through our investigation. some food waste can be seen as a consequence of actors wanting to achieve resilience through redundancy: over-production and over-purchasing, so that they call on this surplus if something unexpected happens; these 'unexpected events' could be a grave issue such as a farmer experiencing a low yield, or relatively small things like consumers entertaining unexpected guests or not finding the time to go do your weekly shop at the regular time. however, some wasted food did not provide resilience at any point in time. generally, if the 'food at risk of becoming waste' can be tapped into relatively quickly (for example, by relaxing cosmetic standards), then that quantity does provide redundancy and therefore some shortterm resilience. but if there are no means of preventing the spoilage and waste, then waste food never provided any resilience. some of the types of food waste that provide short-term resilience are also some of the easiest to address to reduce over-production. interventions such as relaxing cosmetic standards and reducing overpurchasing through better planning are examples of changes that can be implemented fairly easily, and therefore also get implemented when something unexpected occurs, i.e. in time of scarcity. for example, in 2012 untypical weather resulted in poor yields of fruits and vegetables, in response to which uk's supermarkets relaxed their rules on their cosmetic appearance (vidal, 2012) , evening the supply. the relative ease of intervention implementation provided redundancy. however 'saving' these interventions for times of scarcity comes with cost a of diminishing natural capital and contribution to climate change from over-production. therefore, the recommendation of the authors is not that the interventions that reduce redundancy are not pursued (they could be considered as a priority due to their ease of implementation), but that they are balanced with complementary interventions that compensate for lost redundancy, most notably improved storage. this investigation of food waste and resilience led us to a new proposal to conceptualise wasted food, depending on whether it represents mainly a) a loss of needed nutrition (a direct loss of food security) or b) a loss of resources used to produce it (leading to indirect, long-term loss of resilience). in practice it may be difficult to allocate a loss of an individual item of wasted food between the two, as the mechanisms and causes of loss may be identical, but the consequences are not. they also depend on the context, particularly the socio-economic status of the actor. as actors improve their socio-economic status, they often seek to improve their food security through increasing over-production, rather than through reducing food loss though interventions, for a variety of different reasons. therefore, the nutrition loss shifts to resource loss, even though the causes and mechanisms (the actual process of food becoming inedible) may remain unchanged. the short-term resilience of the actor improves, but the long-term resilience of the whole food systems diminishes through increased depletion of natural capital and reduced stability. as progress is made towards halving food waste, it would be helpful to track the nutrition loss and the resource loss (over-production) separately at a large/global scale. for this, better production and consumption statistics would be needed. to complement food waste reduction, and also to encourage it, policy should carefully consider which of the two outcomes of reduced food waste are preferable for the circumstances: reduced production or increased consumption. at national food policy levels, food waste reduction targets are rarely linked to other outcomes. (if anything, they are vaguely linked to improving import-export balance). this lack of systemic food policy represents a missed opportunity to strengthen other desirable food system transitions, including increased short-term or long-term resilience. long-term resilience could be doubly-encouraged for example, by gradual internalisation of externalities so that food price would be stable despite downwards pressure from food waste reduction (benton and bailey, 2019; rutten, 2013) . this should lead to reduction of over-production, and therefore reduction of ghg emissions and increase in other ecosystem services that can be provided by spared land. the delivery of specific ecosystem services, many of which can again be conductive to long-term resilience, can be then further encouraged with compatible financial incentives, and would, through competition for resources, further reduce food over-production. the opportunities include: farmers being able to build in more resilienceinducing features that protect soils, pollinators and other resources on the spared land (for example: buffer zones, hedgerows, stony habitats, pollinator habitat enhancement and lagoons, see gardner et al., 2019) ; reduced use of fertiliser (and its negative impacts) not only through reduced production but also reduced fertiliser subsidies; water reservoirs and aquifers re-filling (or being used less intensely), increasing the resilience of water supply in the future; healthier ecosystems on and surrounding the agricultural lands. reduction in food loss and waste combined with an ecosystem services approach can therefore steer the food system to a more resilient and sustainable future. on the other hand, in circumstance where an increase in consumption is preferred to directly improve food security, prices can be allowed to decrease through food waste reduction interventions. this is particularly appropriate for highly nutritious foods that are underconsumed in the population. however, an increase in consumption is not helpful in all circumstances and for all types of food. particularly for food with high energy and poor nutrient values amongst populations with an obesity problem, without taking a systemic approach pursuing food waste reduction in isolation may contribute to exacerbating the problems. the lack of systemic approach also reduces the chances of food waste reduction incentives succeeding. the first signal from a significant reduction of food waste at one point in the supply chain at either demand or supply side is bound to be a reduction in price (rutten, 2013) . this can encourage waste at another stage in supply chain, or at another geography. for this reason, it is important that food waste reduction is being pursued on a global scale and in all stages of supply chain. good monitoring systems are needed to be put in place to ensure that waste is not pushed from one end of the supply chain to another, and from one place to another. global monitoring frameworks are currently being set up by un fao and unep, but the challenges associated with the monitoring of food waste should not be underestimated. in the future, however, it would be beneficial to monitor other separate indices at critical points in transition to high-resilience, low waste system, particularly the total storage capacity and overproduction as indicators of food system resilience and efficiency. this could mean for example an introduction of food reserves targets and monitoring on national, business or even household level (% of total food reserves, % of households with access to safe food storage options in kg/capita). the discourse on food waste for the past ten years have been quite simplistic: food waste is big, bad, and it must be reduced. this was justifiable given the low awareness surrounding food waste, its scale and missed opportunities it embodies. now that awareness has increased, at least amongst policy makers, researchers and businesses (flanagan et al., 2019) , it is time we enter the next stage in food waste policy and discourse: one that is more nuanced and realistic, and tackles both synergies and trade-offs with other food system sustainability goals more explicitly, achieving better outcomes for all goals. in the eu, food waste reduction measures on farm are currently not considered as a part of circular economy package (european commission, 2019), however it could be something that is encouraged through the common agricultural policy. common agricultural policy has a potential to increase farm resilience by encouraging resource efficiency, establishment of resilience features and encourage supporting and regulating ecosystem services. the parallel pursuit of food waste reduction should help free up the resources needed to do this, without sacrificing productivity. in this paper, we used a theoretical approach to try to structure and characterise complex interactions between different parts of and changes to the food system, focusing interactions between interventions aimed at food waste and resilience. this approach was largely based on the experiences and knowledge of the experts involved. where possible we tried to base the judgements on potential causes and effects on observed data; however, this was not possible for all identified linkages. furthermore, while we strived to be comprehensive by taking a systemic approach, it is possible that some important linkages were missed entirely, which could be improved in the future by involving a wider range of stakeholders in the system mapping process. nonetheless, we believe this approach and its conclusions have value, and will hopefully provide a basis for future research on these questions fundamental to food sustainability. there are strong linkages between reducing food waste and food system resilience, that through the analysis in this paper we separated into: a) long-term linkages: food waste prevention interventions influence long-term resilience of the food system though its sustainability, by reducing ghg emissions and therefore climate change and variability, and potential to increase natural capital and improve supporting and regulating ecosystem services. these interactions are overwhelmingly positive for resilience and significant in strength and scale. b) short term-linkages where food waste interventions interact with stability, diversity, redundancy, flexibility, adaptability and connectivity of the system through interventions that lead to changes in livelihoods, storage capacities, variability in supply and demand etc. these interactions can be positive or negative. they form two clusters: one around redundancy -where trade-offs are most apparent, and one around stability and reduced volatility (of supply, demand and price), where synergies are most apparent. the scale and strength of these linkages are not yet known. individual food waste prevention interventions that focus on reducing over-production, for example the relaxation of cosmetic standards, do reduce redundancy and therefore short-term resilience. however, these interventions should not be discouraged as they present a vital opportunity to improve resilience in the long-term. the trade-offs should be recognised so that they can be adequately addressed and compensated for. one example is by improved storage, which by reducing the variability of supply and demand, smoothing prices provides redundancy not in the form of surplus, but a reserve. policy recommendations and implications of this work are the following: 1. replace surplus with reserves. current approach to food resilience relies on over-production. this is exemplified by a notion that 30% of food over-supply is required for adequate food supply and security. however, such reliance on over-production undermines food system resilience in the long-term. the approach to food system resilience needs to shift from over-production to reserves (storage and extension of shelf life e.g. though dehydration), with accompanying storage-related incentives and targets. food waste reduction should be easier to achieve when it is recognised that for many actors, the need to provide resilience is the driver for over-production and therefore waste. the actors need to be reassured that the food waste reduction activity is going to improve rather than reduce their resilience. 3. increasing resilience can indirectly reduce food waste. overproduction for the sake of resilience can be replaced through other resilience conditions, e.g. through increased diversity, by installing irrigation or alternative producer income opportunities related to other ecosystem services. for that purpose, it is important to have an understanding of ways to support resilience alternative to redundancy. 4. approach food policy systemically. food waste reduction policy should consider two of its possible outcomes: reduced production and increased consumption, and actively steer towards the one that is considered more desirable depending a range of circumstances ranging from food resilience, security, public health, state of the environment and ecosystem services. food waste reduction would both facilitate and be facilitated by pricing-in of externalities into food production as well as diversifying the income from other ecosystem services. reducing food waste on its own is less likely to succeed and result in positive food system changes, but such combination of strategies can steer the food system to a more resilient and sustainable future. food and agricultural policy should not overlook this opportunity. the covid-19 epidemic (ongoing at the time of writing) highlights the importance of food system resilience, as it is disrupting food supply chains in many different ways though e.g. order cancelations by the entire hospitality sector, creation of supply chain choke-points (such as the closure of slaughter-houses in the us), harvest-labour shortages (in india and europe). all of this seems to be leading to a large increase in waste food -so not only does waste lead to lower resilience, low resilience may also leads to waste. the amount of food that is wasted instead of being supplied to people is particularly tragic, as at the same time, people are also becoming increasingly food insecure primarily due to slumps in incomes (world food programme, 2020). the interventions that we recommended in this paper, such as improved storage options and strategic well-managed stocks of long-life foods at household, business and regional/national level would help to alleviate such pressures. tom quested, richard swannell and bojana bajzelj are associated with wrap, a uk-based charity with a longstanding history of working on food waste reduction. no other potential conflict of interest is declared. importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation the paradox of productivity: agricultural productivity promotes food system inefficiency toward principles for 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environment | the guardian portion size me: plate-size induced consumption norms and win-win solutions for reducing food intake and waste of waste and waists: the effect of plate material on food consumption and waste covid-19 will double number of people facing food crises unless swift action is taken understanding out of home consumer food waste food waste in primary production -a preliminary study on strawberries and lettuces. banbury, uk. wrap, 2019. food surplus and waste in the uk. banbury, uk. wrap, fsa, defra, 2017. labelling guidance key: cord-322511-hnvqvajx authors: speerin, robyn; needs, christopher; chua, jason; woodhouse, linda j.; nordin, margareta; mcglasson, rhona; briggs, andrew m. title: implementing models of care for musculoskeletal conditions in health systems to support value-based care date: 2020-07-25 journal: best pract res clin rheumatol doi: 10.1016/j.berh.2020.101548 sha: doc_id: 322511 cord_uid: hnvqvajx models of care (mocs), and their local models of service delivery, for people with musculoskeletal conditions are becoming an acceptable way of supporting effective implementation of value-based care. mocs can support the quadruple aim of value-based care through providing people with musculoskeletal disease improved access to health services, better health outcomes and satisfactory experience of their healthcare; ensure the health professionals involved are experiencing satisfaction in delivering such care and health system resources are better utilised. implementation of mocs is relevant at the levels of clinical practice (micro), service delivery organisations (meso) and health system (macro) levels. the development, implementation and evaluation of mocs has evolved over the last decade to more purposively engage people with lived experience of their condition, to operationalise the chronic care model and to employ innovative solutions. this paper explores how mocs have evolved and are supporting the delivery of value-based care in health systems. models of care (mocs), and their local models of service delivery, for people with musculoskeletal conditions are becoming an acceptable way of supporting effective implementation of valuebased care. mocs can support the quadruple aim of value-based care through providing people with musculoskeletal disease improved access to health services, better health outcomes and satisfactory experience of their healthcare; ensure the health professionals involved are experiencing satisfaction in delivering such care and health system resources are better utilised. implementation of mocs is relevant at the levels of clinical practice (micro), service delivery organisations (meso) and health system (macro) levels. the development, implementation and evaluation of mocs has evolved over the last decade to more purposively value-based care was first discussed by berwick in 2008 as a triple aim of measuring health outcomes, improved patient experience and better use of health resources [21] . porter added to the concept by including health professionals' experiences, seen as an important factor in achieving valuebased care. value-based care can be viewed as a continuum from high to low. 'high-value' care refers to care for which evidence suggests it confers benefit on patients, or probability of benefit exceeds possible harm, or, more broadly, the added costs of the intervention provides proportional added benefits relative to alternatives [22] . are mocs supporting the shift to value-based care across the quadruple aim? does the evolution of mocs for people living with musculoskeletal conditions support the achievement of the quadruple aim? the paper will reflect on the changing attitudes towards healthcare by all stakeholders in the health system. consideration of some of the workforce requirements to deliver the health outcomes will be discussed, along with progress of consumer and clinical experiences. are better health outcomes being achieved? evolution of contemporary models of care for musculoskeletal conditions mocs were borne from frustration that traditional clinical pathways developed from evidence-informed healthcare were not being implemented for individuals, let alone across health settings and systems, resulting in unacceptable care variation and inequity in access to care [23e25] . evolving population health states, changing health requirements and expectations of the patient and their families, and changing approaches to care, mandated that a different approach to care planning, delivery and participation be taken. mocs were conceived to combine best practice healthcare and other services that are important to the person, population group or patient cohort across the continuum of a condition, injury or health event. mocs aim to ensure people get the right care, at the right time, by the right team, in the right place, with the right resources [26e28]. mocs for long-term conditions represent a shift from episodic provision of care to meet crisis situations, to care delivery across the disease continuum and life course [29, 30] . the chronic care approach and the biopsychosocial model while the chronic care model proposed by wagner et al. in the 1990s [31] and the biopsychosocial model proposed by engel in 1977 [32] are not new, the acceptance and integration of these personcentred and multidimensional approaches into care planning and delivery continues to evolve beyond the historic reductionist biomedical model. for the majority of long-term musculoskeletal conditions, application of the reductionist biomedical model has not been effective in improving outcomes [33e35] . thus, the chronic care approach and the biopsychosocial model are now central foci for mocs for long-term conditions. they are particularly relevant to musculoskeletal mocs, where target conditions are typically life-long and associated with persistent pain and functional impairment, and require interaction with a range of health services over decades from primary care to specialist medical and surgical services, even if intermittent. in chronic care, self-management support remains a fundamental component of effective care. operationalising these approaches within mocs requires consideration of the person's lived experience (incorporating biological, psychological and social sequelae), person-centred health outcomes and their experiences of care. recent debate in chronic pain care, for example, suggests that the biopsychosocial model of pain care is inadequately fit for purpose and needs to evolve further towards a sociopsychobiological moc [34] . the inclusion of the person's lived experience of a condition(s), including the psychosocial sequelae, is now accepted as fundamental to designing, implementing and evaluating mocs. in order to understand and listen to those who know the condition best e the person living with the condition and their family/carer e several elements have been added to the development, delivery and evaluation of mocs in recent years [18] . this a clear shift from mocs developed prior to the past decade or so. this shift has seen health teams, organisations and systems working to incorporate these concepts within musculoskeletal mocs through the use of multi-stakeholder networks, such as those in western australia and new south wales, australia (see https://ww2.health.wa.gov.au/articles/j_m/ musculoskeletal-health-network and https://www.aci.health.nsw.gov.au/networks/musculoskeletal). while efforts were made in the past to include the lived experience, recent thinking and evidence has revealed that an even higher level of partnership between stakeholders is required to develop health services that meet the needs of those who access them as recipients of care [36] . therefore, methodologies, such as clinical redesign [37] , shared decision-making [38] and co-design [30] , have been used in recent years to facilitate this in-depth level of partnership. incorporating advice borne from experience can richly inform 'what' and 'how' care should be delivered in a local system. with the voice of the lived experience augmenting clinical experience and healthcare evidence concerning a particular condition, the resulting care is more likely to be acceptable to all involved and better reflect care that is high value [39e42]. critically, satisfaction of receivers of care is more likely to be associated with effective and active participation in their healthcare requirements [43, 44] . measuring what matters to people: patient-reported measures patient-reported measures (prms) have evolved as a mechanism to report on and incorporate the patient voice in mocs. prms enable evaluation of healthcare, and can inform higher value-oriented changes to health services and health systems [45, 46] . prms are commonly classified as two separate outcome measures: patient-reported outcome measures (proms) and patient-reported experience measures (prems). studies have shown that inclusion of proms enhances treatment decisions, patient satisfaction and subsequent adherence to agreed treatments [47, 48] . systematic review evidence points to the likely benefit of using proms in healthcare [49] . prems indicate the patient's perspective on issues, such as access to care, how they were approached and included in their treatment decisions [49e51]. while satisfaction surveys have long been a part of mocs, prems are relatively new with few tools to support their inclusion in clinical practice with local teams often developing their own. proms have the ability to identify issues that may not be elucidated during clinical assessments. there is appreciation now that background psychological issues, such as depression, anxiety and an individual's health beliefs and expectations, may impact upon recovery and their participation in care. this has led to specific proms, such as those that assess important person-centred impacts of living with a condition (e.g. in the management of people with back pain [52] ) and others that focus more on generic issues that occur across healthcare needs, inclusive of social requirements [53] . as such, proms have the dual capability of informing clinicians as to the whole of health impact of disease while at the same time providing a conduit via which previously unstated patient concerns may be addressed. proms and prems are important components to the quadruple aim of value-based care. innovation in development and implementation of models of care and service delivery as our understanding of the requisite components and practices for developing mocs and mosds evolve, innovation in development practices similarly evolves. like many other countries, early and appropriate conservative care for osteoarthritis (oa) remains underutilised in new zealand (nz). currently, nz has an outcomes framework for service development and commissioning for long-term conditions [54] , including specific strategies for diabetes [55] and healthy ageing [56] . however, no frameworks or policies specifically exist for musculoskeletal healthcare. in response to this gap, in 2015, the nz government allocated nzd 6 million over 3 years to trial and evaluate local healthcare programmes that aimed to improve access to early community-based interventions that provided contemporary clinical interventions and self-management support of people with musculoskeletal conditions e the mobility action programme' [57] . an additional $44 million (new zealand $) was allocated to address access issues to joint replacement surgery [58] . the aim of the mobility action programme is to trial, evaluate and commission effective and sustainable programmes for broader dissemination across nz in the future. why a co-design approach was needed in new zealand for an oa model of service delivery despite these investments, a national framework to align the health system with best practice recommendations for musculoskeletal conditions does not exist prompting a call to action for an oa moc for nz [59] . furthermore, there is currently no guidance for health service delivery for decision-makers, such as planners, coordinators or funders, about which interventions for oa offer the greatest perceived value in the nz health system. for oa, this decision can be particularly challenging given that there are many interventions to choose or recommend in a national-level service model, and because implementing recommended oa care is typically complex and influenced by many interdependent barriers and facilitators across the health system [12, 60] . for these reasons, adopting the principle of co-design with stakeholders from across the sector in reform efforts is essential, including the perspectives of people with a lived experience of the condition and vulnerable groups, to ensure appropriate consideration of context' and fit' [18, 36] . strong evidence points towards incorporating context, that is, the environmental conditions which influence the barriers and enablers of implementation [61] ) into the decision to adopt or commission an intervention for implementation [12, 60] . in particular, establishing the fit' of established or emerging interventions within the nz context could help to enhance implementation of oa care by more closely aligning intervention performance with what stakeholders want. alignment of recommendations for oa care will potentially reduce healthcare waste [36] . for example, interventions that align closely with decision-makers' decisionmaking criteria, such as intervention cost, accessibility and effectiveness, and evidence about interventions' performances on these criteria could enhance implementation efforts and better align with system policy priorities. developing national recommendations for oa care is a complex endeavour and should ideally represent the views and opinions of the people most relevant to oa care in a particular context. in nz, this context includes not only people across the community living with oa, but also specifically m aori healthcare advocates. they need to work in tandem with healthcare providers, policy-makers and oa research and clinical experts working in the various care settings. however, these eclectic stakeholders typically make complex decisions involving many considerations, or criteria, which often compete. weighing up these different criteria to reach a decision should ideally occur through a transparent, trustworthy and fair process. approaches for reaching consensus include, for example, verbal agreement, delphi surveys, nominal group technique and consensus development panels (e.g. deliberative dialogues) [36] . some limitations of these methods include: (1) decision-making criteria may not be explicit and decisions may be made without appropriate time for reflection; (2) decision-makers' preferences or values are typically implicit; (3) new evidence, ideas or alternative choices may invalidate previously reached consensus and (4) engagement can be limited, particularly among those with a lived experience of a health condition. multi-criteria decision analysis (mcda) is a systematic, transparent and fair approach to decision-making that can address these important considerations [62] . mcda structures decision-making by incorporating subjective and objective data in a systematic and transparent process that identifies and weighs multiple evaluation criteria in order to prioritise different healthcare interventions, policy options or alternatives [63] . this structured, systematic approach is a defining characteristic of mcda and helps to overcome mental shortcuts (often employed in complex decisions, e.g. gut feeling') which can lead to systematic mistakes, poor decisions, and ultimately, poor decision-making credibility [64] . the advantages of mcda include: i) explicit evaluation criteria enforces transparency, accountability and fairness; ii) scalability e the ability to prioritise new or emerging interventions without capturing stakeholders' preferences for these interventions each time and iii) efficiencies in design and deployment streamline decision-making allow for broader and more meaningful engagement with a diverse range of stakeholders. in recent years, mcda has become widespread in healthcare research [65, 66] . for example, it has been used to explore the preferences of people with oa concerning physical activity [67] , patients' preferences for the use of medicines [36] , healthcare providers' treatment choices for people with oa [68] and policy-makers' and clinical decision-makers' preferences for intervention choice [69] . it has not been applied previously to inform a cross-sector, consensusbased mosd for people with oa. how has mcda been applied in the nz context for oa care? through a qualitative study in 2016e2017, multidisciplinary and cross-sectoral stakeholders in nz (people with the lived experience of oa, healthcare providers, policymakers and oa clinical and research experts) identified nine criteria for selecting or recommending oa interventions in the nz public health system: accessibility, active versus passive interventions, appropriateness, cost, duration, effectiveness, quality of evidence, recommendation and risk of harm [70] . criteria were organised according to the guidance for mcda [71] , for example, selecting nonredundant and non-overlapping criteria. the criteria were then categorised into levels' describing their performance. for example, the criterion effectiveness' was categorised into high, moderate and low levels of performance using the standardised mean difference. choicebased surveys were used to quantify people's preferences for the criteria, that is, their relative weights. interventions were then rated on the performance levels of the criteria, sourced from clinical guidelines [72] , local data and a nationally representative panel of experts in oa management in nz. the final step involved combining the preference weights and intervention ratings together to calculate a total performance score for each intervention. digital and electronic health solutions digital health systems now offer unprecedented capabilities to health systems and consumers in data collection, delivery of information and access to health services. access is enhanced through realtime access to care (e.g. through telehealth) and digitally based tailored care (e.g. through adaptive mhealth platforms). the healthcare opportunities offered by digital systems and the ubiquitous use of digital platforms globally, such as mobile phones, rationalise digital health systems as a key strategy for health system strengthening [73] . these technologies have appeal, particularly for younger people [74] , and also provide opportunities to close care disparity gaps that exist due to geography and socioeconomic circumstance, and allow for electronic recording of care access and delivery over time. while there has been an uptake in telehealth and mhealth solutions for some chronic conditions in the past decade, including opportunities for musculoskeletal and pain care [75] , system-wide adoption in musculoskeletal care outside hospitals has been slow, despite promising opportunities. many reasons can be attributable to the slow uptake, in particular the major gap between innovation and testing and appropriate scale-up into systems [76] . there is an opportunity to close innovation-adoption gaps by better integrating digital solutions into the design of mocs. in the case of telehealth, one reason is the belief that physical clinical assessment is paramount to diagnosing and monitoring a musculoskeletal condition. perhaps this will change following the covid-19 pandemic, which forced clinicians to adopt these tools as part of routine care. in the case of electronic medical recording, the required allocation of significant resources in settings (out of hospital acute care) that have traditionally not been seen as important is limiting uptake. however, these systems can add value to better utilisation of clinical time, ease of recording of prms and greatly assist in evaluation efforts [77] . how well are models of care accepted in health systems and their services? it has long been accepted and expected that a health system uses structures and processes to create an integrated care environment that is appropriate for the population it serves [78, 79] . mocs, when developed as described in this paper, have been a fundamental means of enabling this to happen in some jurisdictions and care settings [80, 81] . for example, national health policies for nonfindings from this activity could be used to inform recommendations in a national mosd for oa, which outlines those interventions that offer the greatest perceived value to nz stakeholders. the mcda process enabled the views and perspectives of all stakeholder groups, particularly people living with oa and m aori advocates, to be respected and equally considered. the development, implementation and evaluation of mocs for musculoskeletal conditions requires equal partnerships between those with lived experience of the disease/condition and their carers, health professionals across all disciplines, service resource personnel, researchers and policy-makers in jurisdictions. enhanced decision-making methods, such as multi-criteria decision analysis, can be used to inform more robust and trustworthy health policy decision-making through broader and more inclusive engagement of people with lived experience; this could help policy-makers identify better value-based care options. there is an urgent need for further uptake of digital technologies to support implementation of mocs. communicable diseases refer to the need to develop and implement mocs to drive health system strengthening [82] . the national health service in the united kingdom is a good example where mocs have been the main drivers of change including in the development of strategy to turn attention to value-based healthcare [83, 84] . acceptability of mocs by stakeholders from across the health system in australia was validated in a large qualitative study [25] . informants identified the value of mocs in translating evidence to policy and practice and supporting system-wide health transformation. implementing models of care to support value-based care when mocs are developed as described in this paper and a quality improvement cycle is used, such as an established framework for evaluation [18] , they can provide clear evidence for health systems and policy-makers when making decisions regarding equitable use of resources that will optimise health system outcomes across the quadruple aim for value-based care. low back pain, identified as the single greatest contributor to the global burden of disability since 1990 [1] represents an important focus for health systems to realign to deliver value-based care. currently, health systems deliver too much low-value care and too little high-value care for low back pain. recent reviews have identified key challenges for health systems in delivery of high-value care for low back pain and pain care in general [33, 34, 85, 86] . these include the financial interests of pharmaceutical and other companies; inflexible payment systems that favour medical care over patients' self-management; and deep-rooted biomedical traditions and beliefs about pain among physicians and the community at large. authors have argued for system-level reform strategies, such as the implementation of mocs, to shift resources from unnecessary, low-to high-value care and that such endeavours could be cost-neutral and have widespread impact. evidence is building concerning whether mocs can support value-based care. health systems are now using mocs to inform strategy concerning value-based care [87, 88] . for example, musculoskeletal mocs for people living with osteoarthritis and those experiencing fragility fractures are included in the suite of services for value-based care initiatives in australia [89] , while in canada, a national approach to hip fracture care has been developed [90] . the new south wales health system in australia is now into the fourth year of formally implementing value-based care, with mocs remaining at the forefront of decision-making on each tranche of implementation [91, 92] . multidisciplinary team-based care as an enabler to implementing musculoskeletal models of care healthcare transformation, designed to improve access and quality of care while containing cost, is a worldwide priority [93e95], aligned with value-based care and enabled through mocs. many countries have responded by enabling existing healthcare professionals to work to their maximum scope (advanced scope of practice [96e101], which has also been articulated as an enabler to implementing mocs [102] . historically, this approach has worked to address shortages in available healthcare practitioners in remote and rural areas and on the front line to triage injured soldiers during wartime. more recently, advanced practice roles have been implemented as part of new interprofessional models of team-based musculoskeletal care. these innovative mocs require close collaboration and communication among healthcare providers, integration across care sectors (private/ public, hospital/primary/community based) and funding models that enable and promote evidencebased care across the full continuum of care [103] . while people with musculoskeletal conditions access a variety of medical and surgical specialties, there is a need for other non-medical health professionals to be involved in order to access high-value care; for example, supporting the person's understanding of and addressing issues, such as psychological needs, co-morbidities, weight loss and physical activity in osteoarthritis care. nurses and allied health professionals, such as physiotherapists, dieticians and others, are key members of a true multidisciplinary musculoskeletal care team. not surprisingly, the high cost and volume of people, who require improved access to musculoskeletal care in the primary care sector, has resulted in the emergence of the new inter-professional service models inclusive of health professionals with advanced scope of practice skills such as nurse practitioners and physiotherapists who have had advanced training in musculoskeletal healthcare [98,100,104e108] . as demand for musculoskeletal health services increase, mocs will increasingly recommend alternate and innovative workforce models to ensure timely access to care and high-value service delivery. in high-income settings, these examples of new cadres who are educated and authorised to function autonomously and collaboratively in advanced and extended clinical roles may help to achieve some of the quadruple aims of value-based care. these may include reducing wait times in emergency departments, triaging to surgical consult for total knee or hip joint replacement, re-fracture prevention assessments and investigation, and performing as the lead health professional in supporting people presenting with acute low back pain [109e121]. ongoing evaluation of clinical, economic and patient experience outcomes will be important to maintain momentum in optimising workforce configurations. in lower resourced settings, building capacity among appropriately skilled and trained community health workers will be important to implementing mocs and avoiding catastrophic out of pocket expenditure for citizens, such as integrated care services for older people [122] and communitybased spine care [123] . an important aspect of value-based care and involvement of multidisciplinary teams is health professional experience. to understand their experience, there is a real need to develop a standardised way of measuring elements that are meaningful to health professionals in the delivery of care. an example is the national health service in the uk that could be developed for use across jurisdictional borders. see at: https://www.nhsstaffsurveys.com/caches/files/st19_core%20questionnaire_final_ 20190705.pdf. as the acceptance of mocs as levers for system reform becomes more widespread, there will be an increasing need for implementation support within health systems and sharing of experiences. implementation support can occur at different levels: from local support for an mosd, to sub-national, to national support for system wide implementation efforts, through to global-level support for multinational implementation. along this continuum, the level and focus of support may vary from comprehensive local support (e.g. organisational site visits) through to principles or guiding actions for countries to work towards and self-evaluate. local and sub-national implementation support initiatives typically involve assisting organisations across a health system to implement an moc through an operational-level mosd, usually adapted to the local context. for example, in new south wales, australia since 2009, there has been increasing support for implementation of several mocs for the healthcare needs of people with musculoskeletal conditions, including osteoarthritis, secondary fragility fracture prevention, hip fracture care, acute low back pain, and children and adolescents living with rheumatologic conditions. this has been achieved initially through a clinical network working with government in supporting local organisations to develop business cases for implementing the mocs and the provision of seed funds to enable pilot implementation initiatives with common evaluation frameworks. implementation scale-up across the there is an urgent need to develop a tool that measures health professional experience across the domains of job satisfaction, burnout, how adverse events are handled, how engagement up and down the hierarchy occurs, their ability to provide care that incorporates all the impacting issues that a person presents for care is experiencing across biopsychosocial areas, and their capacity to influence change within the health service. funding and implementation of team-based mocs that allow for local adaptation in rural and remote as well as urban areas that can be scaled and spread are essential. ongoing evaluation of advanced practice nursing and allied health professional mocs will be important to maintain and optimise workforce configurations. system was achieved through integration of the mocs for osteoarthritis and secondary fragility fracture prevention within a larger whole-of-system reform initiative e the 'leading better value care' programme: https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/value/lbvc/pages/default.aspx [89] . the south west england mocs support network is an example of an online community of practice formed to support implementation of mocs across primary care in the south west of england and beyond (https://modelsofcare.co.uk/). multiple other sub-national implementation support programmes also likely exist, although currently no repository exists to share implementation experiences. international efforts to support the implementation of mocs and mosds across countries focus on specific service models or offer guidance that is transferable across conditions. examples of specific service models include: the global fragility fracture network (https://www.fragilityfracturenetwork.org/) supports implementation of best practice and localised mocs for people with fragility fractures across the continuum of care through formal education opportunities and peer mentoring. this includes efforts for health professionals working with the patient cohort at presentation with fracture to peri-operative care, to rehabilitation and to secondary fracture prevention. the good life with osteoarthritis in denmark (gla:dâ®) (https://www.glaid.dk/english.html), now implemented in denmark, canada, china and australia, with further countries joining (switzerland, new zealand and austria) [124] . the mosd provides specific implementation guidance for physiotherapist-led exercise and education for people with hip and/or knee osteoarthritis. the international osteoporosis foundation capture the fractureâ® programme (https://www. capturethefracture.org/) [125] facilitates the implementation of coordinated, multi-disciplinary service models for secondary fragility fracture prevention. the programme offers multiple implementation resources to support countries implement the programme and evaluate the scale of implementation achieved (https://www.capturethefracture.org/resources). the global spine care initiative (https://www.globalspinecareinitiative.org/) [123] supports the implementation of local spine care services in low-and middle-income countries. it is based on eight principles that consider implementation from the micro to macro contexts. the clinical and health economic outcomes of the model are yet to be established. a framework (the 'framework'; fig. 2 ) to support implementation of any musculoskeletal moc was developed in 2016, empirically derived with input from 93 stakeholders across 30 countries [126] . the framework guides those tasked with implementation in a health system to consider and evaluate the following domains: -implementation readiness -best practice approaches to support implementation -evaluation. the framework is now endorsed by 54 peak international organisations and has been used internationally to support development, implementation and evaluation of mocs (see fig. 2 ). the majority of public-facing mocs for musculoskeletal conditions have been developed and supported for implementation in high-income countries. while there are some initiatives occurring in low-and middle-income countries [127, 128] , there remains a need to support development and implementation of musculoskeletal mocs in low-and middle-income countries that supports, rather than threatens, fragile health systems [129, 130] . recent research, for example, has confirmed the suitability of the chronic care model for low-and middle-income settings, but identified that some adaptation and expansion is required for low-resource settings [131] . the who integrated care for older people (icope) model supports countries at all stages of maturity to consider actions required to realign health systems towards the needs of older people, including their mobility and musculoskeletal health [122] . implementation tools are now available to support the implementation of icope internationally in health services and health systems [132] . systematic reviews have reported a range of factors that have been identified as barriers and enablers to implementation of mocs in health services and health systems [12,133e135] . as outlined in the framework (fig. 2) , consideration of these factors and others that are relevant to the local context are essential in approaching any implementation effort. system-level mocs and their operational-level mosds are one of many tools that support the translation of evidence into system (macro)-level (e.g. policy), service (meso)-level (e.g. programme implementation) and clinical (micro)-level (e.g. practice) changes [14] . however, all too often evidence translation initiatives end with short-term and non-recurrent resourcing, resulting in multiple shortterm trial reforms, programmes or pilots. these then often lead to reform fatigue among those tasked with implementation and monitoring [137] . on this background, appropriate evaluation of mocs is an essential component of supporting long-term implementation and sustained reform and quality improvements efforts in health systems. local system evaluation is critical [138] , recognising that outcomes between settings may not necessarily be comparable; for example, between high-and lowincome economies, or even at the sub-national level between jurisdictions with geographic differences that can impede access to services and/or expert services. evaluation of mocs must be pragmatic, flexible to a dynamic health system, respectful of local contextual issues and meaningful to intended end users. the parameters of evaluation should be codesigned with decision-makers and end users to ensure the outcomes are meaningful, useable and contemporary [139] . the perspectives of people with lived experience of a health condition are also critical to ensure meaningful concepts are measured [36] . evaluation approaches need to consider design and methods, target levels of the health system and outcomes. while 'effectiveness' evaluation (research) remains essential to advancing health innovation, identifying high-value care and minimising health waste, this mode of evaluation may be less relevant and feasible at the stage of implementing mocs in health systems. by definition, the components of an moc should be evidence based [14] ; suggesting that evaluation of effectiveness is less of a priority for the downstream evidence translation phase of implementation. the necessary structured and rigid design of gold standard effectiveness research designs, such as the randomised controlled trial (rct), may collide with the dynamic nature of health systems and health services and inadequately reflect outcomes of the broader population health state. in particular, rcts may often exclude people with multi-morbid health states, which now reflect the norm rather than a subgroup [140] . researchers are it is timely to now consider multi-morbidity in models of care (mocs), given the prevalence of multi-morbidity of non-communicable diseases with musculoskeletal conditions commonly being prevalent. evolution of future mocs needs to more explicitly consider multi-morbidity and how condition-specific or multi-morbidity mocs can support delivery of high-value care. while there are some examples in recent years to support the development and implementation of some musculoskeletal mocs in low-and middle-income countries, for example, fragility fracture and spine care, there is a dire need to adapt and support implementation of moc in a manner that is suitable for fragile health systems. more research is required concerning health and economic outcomes achievable through implementation of mocs in order to drive further health system improvements globally. the approach proposed by jessup and colleagues is a good starting point [136] . starting to apply more innovative trial designs to deal with this challenge and focus specifically on implementation trial designs [141] , although more experience and work is required to apply such methods across services or across a system. the incompatibility between rcts and health systems research is particularly relevant in the context of mocs with a strong ehealth component [142] , where evaluation approaches other than effectiveness designs are recommended and supported by guiding frameworks [76,143e146] . these evolving frameworks could feasibly be applied beyond ehealth, with many of the guiding principles already reflected in a framework developed to specifically guide evaluation of musculoskeletal mocs [126] . collectively, the framework advocates for continuous cycles of mixed-methods evaluation (or formative evaluations), aligned with a process evaluation approach to iteratively understand how implementation could be optimised in a given context and be responsive to changing circumstances [147] , before initiating a summative (impact) evaluation. the framework also suggests that evaluation should not be based on single outcomes, but consider a multidimensional approach to defining 'success', 'performance' or 'benefit', achieved through mixed-methods approaches that consider outcomes relevant to the consumer (e.g. proms and prems) and the health system [126, 145] . the importance of emphasising qualitative research exploring stakeholders' perceptions and attitudes towards implementation feasibility, acceptability and sustainability is widely proposed [36, 148] . evaluation of mocs or downstream mosds can be targeted at different levels of the health system. an evaluation hierarchy, or pyramid, has been proposed, which suggests evaluation can be targeted at one or more of three levels (see fig. 3 ) [14] : 1) specific components of an moc or mosd (e.g. a specific clinical behaviour, work cadre or self-management strategy); 2) at the programme level (e.g. where a specific health improvement programme is implemented, such as the gla:dâ® programme [124] or capture the fractureâ® initiative [125] ) or 3) at the whole-of-system level (e.g. the system wide impact of implementing an moc or multiple service models across a whole system such as the who icope approach [122] ). most implementation and evaluation efforts occur at the base of the pyramid, while the least occurs at the system level [149, 150] , likely reflecting the challenges associated with whole-of-system evaluation endeavours. evaluation at the system level, however, remains of critical importance and underscores the need for appropriate health surveillance infrastructure and systems [33, 82, 122, 151] , particularly in low-and middle-income countries [130] . as implementation of mocs evolve and evaluation systems become more sophisticated, the need for a pyramid inversion will become greater. indeed, many jurisdictions are now emphasising the need to reorient evaluation towards a whole-ofsystem lens in order to build a better picture of overall system functioning and performance against reform targets, inclusive of an approach that integrates patient, clinician and system performance outcomes [89, 152] . while system-and service-level integration of proms and prems is challenging, as identified in a recent systematic review of barriers to implementation [153] , recent data from new south wales, australia, point to the feasibility of measuring proms across a system though electronic platforms [154] . in order to achieve integrated measurement of patient and clinical outcomes (micro level), service-level (meso) outcomes and system-level (macro) outcomes, co-design with end users of the evaluation (typically policy-makers, health administrators/mangers and funders) is needed on a background of a lens to healthcare planning and delivery that prioritises 'value' over 'volume' [89, 139] . infrastructure and governance to enable consistent and systematic measurement is essential and enabled through registries to capture proms and prems, agreed performance indicators for health services [155, 156] and linked data systems [89] . in the context of mocs specifically, the recent evaluation framework guides measurement of 'success' of a musculoskeletal moc in a health system and recommends a range of outcome domains should be considered (fig. 2) [18] . this paper has revealed that in the past decade, many positive influences have supported the concept of utilising mocs to support value-based musculoskeletal care. the evidence is clear that the development, implementation and evaluation of mocs must rely more on the involvement of those with the lived experience. their involvement must be in collaboration with those who provide care, their managers and funders. collectively, the advice from those intimately involved whether through personal experience of musculoskeletal diseases or conditions, or clinical practice, or research of the conditions, or through management and funding leads to all elements of the quadruple aim being achieved, as described by porter in 2010 [19] . however, challenges remain that hinder widespread implementation in many areas of the globe, with many being directly attributable to some specific embedded practices [85,157e159] . fig. 4 summarises challenges commonly experienced at the various levels of the health system. for mocs to be even more successful in guiding clinical practice global strategies such as choosing wisely need to be encouraged and supported by governments internationally [160e162]. in low-to middle-income countries, there is a policy swing that now acknowledges the contribution from non-communicable diseases to the burden on population health [163] . for example, osteoporotic fractures in asia are predicted to be higher than seen elsewhere in the next decade [164] . future mocs for healthcare will need to be incorporated into government policy concerning housing, education and employment. the momentum for such change is evidenced by the recent us document encouraging the addition of social care to all healthcare considerations [165] . evaluation of mocs is a critical enabler to supporting sustainable implementation and resourcing of mocs. shifting from a reliance on effectiveness' evaluations to evaluation approaches that better align with multiple domains relevant to implementation is important. outcomes should be meaningful and useable to intended end users and decision-makers, informed through purposive co-design. evaluation at the system level, rather than at the programme level, may better support implementation at scale. in 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social care into the delivery of health care: moving upstream to improve the nation's health quality measurement and improvement in rheumatology: rheumatoid arthritis as a case study key: cord-025337-lkv75bgf authors: vakkuri, ville; kemell, kai-kristian; jantunen, marianna; abrahamsson, pekka title: “this is just a prototype”: how ethics are ignored in software startup-like environments date: 2020-05-06 journal: agile processes in software engineering and extreme programming doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-49392-9_13 sha: doc_id: 25337 cord_uid: lkv75bgf artificial intelligence (ai) solutions are becoming increasingly common in software development endeavors, and consequently exert a growing societal influence as well. due to their unique nature, ai based systems influence a wide range of stakeholders with or without their consent, and thus the development of these systems necessitates a higher degree of ethical consideration than is currently carried out in most cases. various practical examples of ai failures have also highlighted this need. however, there is only limited research on methods and tools for implementing ai ethics in software development, and we currently have little knowledge of the state of practice. in this study, we explore the state of the art in startup-like environments where majority of the ai software today gets developed. based on a multiple case study, we discuss the current state of practice and highlight issues. the cases underline the complete ignorance of ethical consideration in ai endeavors. we also outline existing good practices that can already support the implementation of ai ethics, such as documentation and error handling. ai systems have become increasingly common in software engineering projects [1] . while much of the media attention is on flashier systems such as autonomous vehicles, less high-profile ai systems such as decision-making support systems have become increasingly widespread in various organizations. ai systems often operate under the surface in the form of e.g. recommendation algorithms, making the high-profile systems in the middle of the media hype only the tip of the iceberg. over the last two decades, progress on ai has been accelerating rapidly. ai systems are now widely used in various areas and for various purposes. examples include medical systems [2] , law enforcement [3] , and manufacturing industries and industry 4.0 [4] , among numerous others. as the field progresses, the already impressive potential of ai systems becomes even larger, including applications such as general ai systems, the likes of which are already being developed by the technology giants such as alphabet. it is exactly because of this impressive potential and impact of these systems, especially in the future, that their potential negative impacts should also discussed more. ai systems are ultimately still software. they are affected by largely the same requirements as any other software system. ai development projects are still for the most part conventional software engineering, with machine learning related tasks only comprising a small portion of these projects [5] . however, ai systems are unique in terms of their effects on various stakeholders to the point where they can even exert society-wide influence. moreover, these stakeholders often have little power in opting out of using these systems. e.g. it is difficult to avoid having a firm filter your job application using ai or trying to avoid being monitored using ai-based surveillance systems if such systems are in place in the area. various system failures have already highlighted some of the potential issues these systems can have in practice. past incidents that have received global media coverage, even smaller incidents can be costly for the affected organization(s). for example, the national finnish broadcasting company, yle 1 , utilized ai for moderation purposes in its services. having already changed its processes to suit the automation of the moderation, the organization ultimately ran into problems with the ai moderator system. though the software was working fine on the technical level, the socio-ethical issues forced the organization to revert back to human moderators. many of these issues are ultimately rooted in ethics. ai ethics has thus become a new non-functional requirement to address; an -ility among the likes of quality, maintainability, and scalability. existing methods have focused on tackling these functional and non-functional requirements. however, no such methods currently exist for ai ethics [6] , with the existing tools and methods largely being technical and limited to narrow contexts in ml as opposed to being project-level methods. in the absence of methods, how are ethics currently implemented? much of the current literature in the area has been theoretical, and our understanding of the state of practice in ai ethics is currently lacking. [6] ai ethics literature discusses various aspects of ai ethics that should be taken into account, but bridging the gap between research and practice in the area remains an on-going challenge [7, 8] . guidelines for implementing ai ethics exist, but their effect on the start of practice remains unknown. thus, to begin bridging this gap in the area, we conduct an empirical study to help us understand the current state of practice. we do so by means of a multiple case study of three projects focusing on healthcare systems. the goal of this study is two-fold: (1) to help us understand the current state of practice in ai ethics; and (2) to discover existing good practices that might help in implementing ai ethics. out of these two goals, the first is a theoretical contribution while the second one is a practical one. the specific research question of the paper is as follows: rq: how are ai ethics taken into consideration in software engineering projects when they are not formally considered? ethics in software development and interactive systems design in general has a history of over 30 years. for example, bynum [9] introduced the idea of adapting human values in design before the rise of human computer interaction and other human-centric paradigms. theoretically grounded approaches such as value sensitive design (vsd) and its variants have provided tools to design technology that takes into account human values in the design process [10, 11] . as more progress is made in the field of ai systems, old theoretical scenarios in ai ethics are slowly becoming reality. this calls for new methods to manage the ethical issues arising from these new systems [7, 12] . indeed, vallach and allen [12] argue that ai and ai-based systems produce new requirements to consider. specifically, they propose that designers implicitly embed values in the technologies they create [12] . ai and other complex systems force designers to consider what kind of values are embedded in the technologies and also how the practical implementation of these values could be carried out and how these systems could be governed [13] . yet, little is currently known about software development practices and methods in the context of ai ethics, as empirical studies in the area are scarce. our results from an existing study suggest that ai ethics are seldom formally implemented in se projects, [14] . similarly, there are currently no project-level methods that could aid in implementing ai ethics [6] . on the other hand, various tools that can support specific elements of ai ethics do exist, such as tools for managing machine learning [6] . however, they do not help developers implement ai ethics in general. in this light, it can be said that ai ethics has hardly been incorporated into mainstream se literature yet. the reason why ai ethics has received little attention in the prior engineering literature is three-fold: 1) prior research has been predominantly philosophical, 2) the field has not sensed the need to address ethical concerns and 3) thus it has not been part of the education system. though some practice-focused research does exist (e.g. [15] ), most of the research on ai ethics has been conceptual and theoretical in nature. these studies have e.g. focused on defining ai ethics in a practical manner through various constructs in the form of values. for the time being, this discussion on defining ai ethics has come to center around four values: transparency [16, 17] , accountability [8, 16] , responsibility [16] , and fairness (e.g. [18] ). not all four of these values are universally agreed to form the core of ai ethics, however, as we discuss in the following section while presenting our research framework. following various real-life incidents out on the field (e.g. amazon's biased recruitment ai 2 ), ai ethics has also begun to spawn public discussion. this has led to governments, standardization institutions, and practitioner organizations reacting by producing their own demands and guidelines for involving ethics into ai development, with many standards and regulations in the works. countries such as france [19] and germany [20] have emphasized the role of ethics in ai, and on an international level the eu began to draft its own ai ethics guidelines which were presented in april 2019 [21] . moreover, iso has founded its own ethical, trustworthy ai in iso/iec jtc 1/sc 42 artificial intelligence subcommittee [22] . finally, some larger practitioner organizations have also presented their own guidelines concerning ethics in ai (e.g. google [23] and microsoft [24] guidelines). thus far, these various attempts to bring this on-going academic discussion out on the field have been primarily made in the form of guidelines and principles. out of these guidelines, perhaps the most prominent ones up until now have been the ieee guidelines for ethically aligned design (ead), born from the ieee global initiative on ethics of autonomous and intelligent systems alongside its ieee p7000™ standards working groups, which were branded under the concept of ead [8] . existing literature has shown us that guidelines and principles in the field of ict ethics do not seem to be effective. mittelstadt [25] argue that ai developers lack the professional norms and methods to translate principles into practice in successful way. to this end, mcnamara et al. [26] also argue based on empirical data that the acm ethical guidelines 3 had ultimately had very little impact on developers, who had not changed their ways of working at all. in this light, this is likely to be the case with the aforementioned ai ethics guidelines as well, as mittelstadt suggest [25] . this notion is further supported by morley et al. [6] who argue that developers focused on practicality are unlikely to adopt them when the competitive advantage of ead is unclear. to assist in the data collection and analysis in this study, we devised a research framework based on prominent literature in the area. this research framework and the justifications behind it are further discussed in an existing paper [27] (fig. 1 ). as the basis of the framework, we utilized the art principles of dignum [16] , which consist of accountability, responsibility, and transparency. these have been central constructs in the area, having also been featured in the ead guidelines of ieee. transparency is required for accountability and responsibility (line 1.c), as we must understand why the system acts in a certain fashion, as well as who made what decisions during development in order to establish accountability [17] . whereas accountability can be considered to be externally motivated, closely related but separate construct responsibility is internally motivated. the concept of accountability holds a key role in aiming to prevent misuse of ai and in supporting wellbeing through ai [8] . accountability refers to determining who is accountable or liable for the decisions made by the ai. dignum [16] in their recent works defines accountability to be the explanation and justification of one's decisions and one's actions to the relevant stakeholders. in the context of this research framework, accountability is used not only in the context of systems, but also in a more general sense. we consider, e.g., how various accountability issues (legal, social) were considered during development. dignum [16] defines responsibility as a chain of responsibility that links the actions of the systems to all the decisions made by the stakeholders. we consider it to be the least accurately defined part of the art model, and thus have taken a more comprehensive approach to it in our research framework. according to the ead guidelines, responsibility can be considered to be an attitude or a moral obligation for acting responsibly [8] a simplified way of approaching responsibility would be for a developer to ask oneself e.g. "would i be fine with using my own system?". in addition to the art principles, we utilized the three ai ethics categories presented by dignum [28] to make these constructs more practical. dignum suggests that ai ethics can be divided into: • ethics by design (integration of ethical reasoning capabilities as a part of the behaviour of artificial autonomous system, e.g. ethical robots); • ethics in design (the regulatory and engineering methods supporting ethical implications of ai systems); and • ethics for design: (codes of conduct, standards, and certification processes that ensure the integrity of developers and users) [28] . in this paper, we focus on the ethically aligned development process, and therefore the last two categories were included into the research framework. finally, aspects of commitment were utilized in the framework to aid data analysis. specifically, we utilized the commitment net model of abrahamsson [29] to approach the implementation of ethics into practice and have an explaining theoretical framework to examine ethics role to developers. from this model, we focused on concerns and actions. concerns were analyzed to understand what ethical issues were of interest to the developers. actions were then studied to understand how these concerns were actually tackled, or whether they were tackled at all. in commitment net model, actions are connected to concerns because when actions are taken, they are always driven from concerns [29] . on the other hand, however, concerns can exist without any actions taken to address them. the dynamic between actions and concerns was considered a tangible way to approach the focus of this study: practices for implementing ai ethics. developers actions could be likened to practices that were taking during the development. on the other hand, analyzing the concerns that developers have opens a view to understanding e.g. whether the developers perhaps wanted to implement ethics but were unable to do so. this section is split into three subsections. first, we discuss the cases of the case study. in the second and third ones we discuss the data collection and analysis, respectively. we conducted a multiple case study featuring three case projects. in all of the case projects, ai systems were being developed for the healthcare sector. these cases are outlined in the table below (table 1) . we chose to utilize a qualitative case study approach due to the exploratory nature of the topic, as the research area is novel as far as empirical studies are concerned. healthcare cases were selected due to the assumption that ethical consideration would be more common in healthcare-related projects due to the nature of the area in closely dealing with human well-being (e.g. the tradition of bio and medical ethics). indeed, healthcare systems can, for example, influence the decisions made by doctors or their patients related to the health of the patients. moreover, due to the emphasis on taxfunded public healthcare in finland, where the cases were from, the area is particularly regulated. these regulations impose some ethical requirements on software systems as well, especially in relation to handling patient data, which is considered particularly sensitive data from a legal point of view. in the paper title, we characterize these case projects as being startup-like because the projects shared various characteristics typically associated with software startups. first, agile methods were commonly utilized in the projects. secondly, the projects were all characterized by notable time pressure. thirdly, the projects operated with scarce resources. fourthly, the cases were centered around the development of functional prototypes, which were intended to as proof-of-concept type artifacts. however, the prototypes were being developed with real customers and tested in practice. finally, the projects exhibited exploratory approaches that focused on experimentation. currently, much of the on-going ai development is happening in startups [1] , even if the multinational organizations receive much media coverage in relation to ai. in characterizing them as startup-like, we consider them to be representative of the current ai development projects. data from the cases were collected using semi-structured interviews [30] . this interview strategy enabled the interviews to be conducted in a way that allowed for flexibility from the interview questions, but without steering too far from the topic. the interview instrument used in the interviews can be found externally as a reference 4 . all interviews were conducted as f2f interviews and the audio was recorded for transcription. the analysis was conducted using the transcripts. the interviews were conducted in finnish. this was done so that the respondents would not give shorter responses due to being uncomfortable with communicating in english, especially while being on record. the respondents from the cases were either developers or managers. as we wanted to focus on development practices and project issues, we focused on the personnel directly involved with the practical development issues in the projects. the respondents are outlined in the table in the previous subsection. in terms of experience, respondents 4, 5, 7, and 8 were junior developers. respondents 3 and 6, on the other hand, were senior developers. respondent 1 was a junior data scientist. we analyzed the data in two phases. first, we utilized a grounded theory (heath [31] ) inspired approach to code the transcripts quote by quote for each interview. this process was carried out iteratively as the list of codes was updated during the process. this approach was chosen due to the lack of existing studies on the current state of practice in the area. in the second phase, we utilized the commitment net model of abrahamsson [29] to then further analyze and categorize the coded content. we utilized the model by focusing on the concerns and actions of the developers. the concerns and actions of each respondent were compared across cases in search of recurring concerns and actions between cases and respondents. by evaluating the relationships between the actions taken in development the development process and the concerns of the developers, we could better understand the motivation behind the actions. similarly, we could also see which concerns did not lead to any actions, pointing to a lack of commitment towards tackling those concerns. the data were then compared with the research framework again to evaluate how ai ethics were implemented in each project. actions were the emphasis here, as the focus of this study was on tangible implementation of ai ethics and how it was carried out in terms of tools, practices, or methods. however, we also highlighted interesting findings in relation to the mere concerns related to ai ethics. this section is split into four subsections. the first three feature the analysis split between the accountability, responsibility and transparency constructs. the final subsection summarizes the analysis. we highlight our findings as primary empirical conclusions (pecs). during the analysis, we use quotes from the interviews to elaborate on the topic at hand. however, it should be noted that the conclusions are not drawn merely based on these individual citations. the concerns of the developers related to responsibility were varied, but ultimately detached from practice as far as concerns related to ai ethics were considered. the concerns the developers discussed in relation to responsibility were simply very practical concerns related to internal project matters or delivering a high quality product: "responsibility on reporting and keeping the project on schedule" (r6) pec1. developers feel most responsibility towards tackling problems related to software development, such as finding bugs, meeting project goals. on the other hand, as the interviews progressed, the developers did also express some concerns towards various ethical issues. however, these concerns were detached from their current work. they did not affect the way they worked, and the developers felt that these types of concerns were not relevant during development. the presence of concerns in the absence of actions to address those concerns pointed towards a lack of commitment on this front. "it is just a prototype" (r8) "i do my best" (r5) "but this is a prototype, an experiment, just to show people that you can do this type of thing. this doesn't really have any responsibility issues in it." (r1) pec2. on a personal level, developers are concerned about the ethical aspects of product development. however, little is done to tackle these concerns. furthermore, it was evident that in none of the cases had the hypothetical effects of the system on the stakeholders been discussed. to give a practical example, a system potentially affecting memory illness diagnoses clearly has various effects on its potential users, especially when the test can be taken without supervision. yet, the developers of this particular tool also felt that their users would not be curious about the workings of the system. they considered it sufficient if the responsibility was outsourced to the user and it was underlined that the system does not make the diagnosis but simply advises doctors. the developers did not consider the potential harm of the system past the tangible, physical harm potential of the systems. for example, stress or other negative effects on users and other stakeholders were not considered. in all three cases, the respondents did not consider the system to have had any potential of causing physical harm, and thus did not consider the system to have any notable harm potential at all. "nobody wants to listen to ethics-related technical stuff. no five hour lectures about it. it's not relevant to the users" (r5) "i don't really understand what it [responsibility] has to do with product development. we developers are all responsible." (r7) "what could it affect… the distribution of funds in a region, or it could result in a school taking useless action… it does have its own risks, but no one is going to die because of it" (r1) pec3. responsibility of developers is unclear. case a highlighted the potential importance of mathematical expertise. the team had internal mathematical capabilities that allowed them to develop their own algorithms, as well as to better understand third party components, in order to have achieve a higher standard of transparency. they utilized algorithms they were familiar with and which they understood on an in-depth level. thus, the team considered themselves to be able to understand why the system made certain decisions in certain situations. this underlines the importance of mathematical skills in preventing the birth of black boxes in ai development. "in that sense it's not really a black box as we can understand what's going on in there just fine, and we can show the nodes and what affects them. it's a very transparent algorithm." (r3) the other two cases utilized existing ai solutions. they did not have an in-depth understanding of the technologies they were utilizing, which resulted in their systems being (partially) black boxes. they understood any components created by the team but did not have a full understanding of the third party components they had used as a base. this presents problems for feature traceability. even though transparency of algorithms and data was not present in two of the cases, the developers in case b nonetheless acknowledged its potential importance however, as it was not considered a formal requirement in the projects, the managers did not devote resources towards pursuing it. even in case a, transparency was not produced as a result of ethical goals but out of business reasons. "we have talked about the risks of decision-making support systems but it doesn't really affect what we do" (r5) pec5. developers recognize transparency as a goal, but it is not formally pursued. on the other hand, in relation to transparency of systems development, all three cases displayed transparency. by having formal decision-making strategies, they were able to keep track of higher-level decisions related to the system. through proper documentation, they were able to keep track of decisions made on the code level. version control also assisted in this regard, making it clear who made what changes and when in retrospect. there were thus various existing practices that produced transparency of systems development. two of the cases also acknowledged the effects of team size on transparency of systems development. they noted that, in addition to documentation practices, the small team size itself made it easy to keep track of the actions of individual developers even in an ad hoc manner. established se practices, such as code documentation and code review, support transparency of systems development. some aspects of accountability were clear points of focus in the projects, namely ones related to security in terms of general information security as well as data management. the respondents were aware of being in possession of personal data, given that they developed healthcare solutions, and were concerned with keeping it secure. they mentioned taking measures to keep the data secure from potentially malicious actors, and they were aware that they would have to take measures to act in accordance with laws and regulations in the area. however, in some cases they had not done so yet. "it's really important how you handle any kind of data, that you preserve it correctly, among researchers, and don't hand it out to any government actors. for example, many of the data packages have kind of interesting data and it can't get into the wrong hands. i personally can't see any way to harm anyone with the data we have though" (r2). "we haven't really paid much attention to the [data] safety aspects yet… it hasn't really been a main focus. there's probably a lot of things we have to take into account [eventually]" (r5). the ethical concerns they had in relation to accountability were in general largely related to existing areas of focus in software development. for example, error handling was one aspect of accountability the respondents were particularly concerned with. this was tied with their goal of making quality software, which they considered their responsibility as professionals. the respondents could, to this end, discuss what tangible practices they utilized to deal with error handling. pec7. developers feel accountable for error handling and have the means to deal with it. however, error handling was largely considered from the point of view of writing code and testing it in a laboratory setting. i.e. the system was considered error free if there were no red lines in the code in the ide during development. only case company b discussed measures they had taken to monitor errors in use. furthermore, potential misuse (e.g. a prankster drawing a horizontal white line on the pavement to intentionally confuse autonomous vehicles) and error scenarios during the operational life of the system had not been actively considered in any of the case projects. "the calculations are made in the algorithms, so it doesn't really make mistakes" (r2) pec8. product misuse and error scenarios are only considered during development. they are not considered in terms of the future operational life of the system out on the field. due to the nature of machine learning, ai systems learn as they are taught with new data or as they collect it themselves while operating out on the field. from this arises the potential issue of unexpected behavior as a result of machine learning. none of the respondents had made plans to tackle potential unexpected behavior during the operational life of their system, should such behavior arise. in only one of the projects was the possibility directly acknowledged: "we just put it up for end-users to test and note that this is still being developed" (r7). pec9. developers do not have plans to deal with unexpected behavior of the system resulting from e.g. machine learning or the future expansion of the use context of the system. past the art constructs, we highlight some commonalities between the cases on a more general level while summarizing our findings. in none of the cases were ethics implemented by following a formal method or tool, nor were ethical issues considered directly as ethical issues. rather, any ethical issues tackled in the projects were tackled for practical reasons (e.g. error free software is beneficial from the point of view of customer relations). nonetheless, some of the ethical issues such as error handling and transparency of systems development were tackled in a systematic manner through existing software engineering practices such as code documentation and version control. on the other hand, though ethics were not taken into consideration on a project level, the respondents still exhibited some concern towards the potential socio-ethical issues in the systems. when prompted, they were able to come up with various negative effects the systems could have on different stakeholders. they considered these to be potential real issues, but did not have a way to address these concerns in the absence of tools, practices, and methods for doing so. moreover, they seemed to realize these potential issues only after being directly asked about them in the interviews. this also points to a lack of tools to aid in ethical analyses. in this section, we have collected all the primary empirical conclusions (pec) outlined in preceding analysis section into table 2 . we relate each of these findings to existing literature and discuss their implications in this section. we classify each of these pecs based on their contribution into either novel findings, findings that (empirically) validated existing literature, or findings that contradict existing literature. many of our findings underline a gap between research and practice in the area. whereas research on ai ethics alongside various guidelines devised by researchers [8] and practitioners [23, 24] alike has discussed various ethical goals for ai systems, these goals have not been widely adopted out on the field. in this sense, we consider some of our findings (pecs 4, 5, 8, and 9) to contradict existing literature. for example, extant literature has highlighted the importance of transparency of algorithms and data [15] [16] [17] . without understanding how the system works, it is impossible to establish why it malfunctioned in a certain situation, which may e.g. be pivotal in understanding the causes of an accident that resulted in material damage [15] . our findings point towards transparency being largely ignored as a goal (pec5). existing system components are utilized as black boxes, and developers do not see this as a notable problem (pec4). we consider pec5 to contradict existing literature in that existing literature has, on multiple occasions, highlighted the importance of transparency in ai systems. yet, out on the field, this importance does not seem to be recognized to the point where it would result in changing development practices. the situation is similar for tackling potential misuse of the systems, error handling during system operations, and handling unexpected system behavior (pec8-9). these goals are included into the ieee ead guidelines [8] . however, none of the case companies took any measures to address these potential issues. on a further note of transparency, however, the lack of emphasis placed on it is also curious in relation to feature traceability in se. for decades, understanding the inner workings of the system was considered key in any se endeavor. yet, in the context of ai systems, the long-standing goal of feature traceability seems to be waning. our findings point towards this being at least partially a result of a lack of mathematical understanding, as the one case company that considered their system to be fully transparent also noted that they fully understood the mathematics behind the algorithms they utilized. in using existing components in their systems, developers may not always understand the algorithms in these components. indeed, in this vein, [32] noted that simply seeing the code is not enough if the algorithm is not understood, or the system is not understood as a whole. though we discovered various examples of ethics not being implemented, we also discovered that various existing and established se practices can be used to implement ai ethics. documentation, version control, and project management practices such as meeting transcripts produce transparency of systems development by tracking actions and decision-making (pec6). similarly, software quality practices help in error handling also in the context of ai ethics (pec7), although they do not specifically account for the errors autonomous systems may face while operating out on the field. while discussing responsibility with the respondents, we also discovered that most of their responsibility was related to producing quality software and meeting project requirements. this validates existing literature in the area of spi (e.g. unterkalmsteiner, [33] ). notably, we also discovered that the developers had ethical concerns towards their systems, which is a novel finding in this context (pec2). little is currently known about the state of practice out on the field, although a recent version of the ead guidelines speculated about a gap in the area, which our findings support in relation to most aspects of ai ethics. despite ai ethics largely not being implemented, our findings point towards it partially being a result of a lack of formal methods and tools to implement it. in our data, the reason given by multiple respondents for not actively considering ethical issues was that they were developing a prototype. however, prototypes do influence the final product or service developed based by them, as shown by existing studies [34] . ai ethical issues should be tackled during earlier stages of development as well, seeing as many of them are higher-level design decisions (such as how to carry out machine learning in the system [15] ), which can be difficult to undo later. following this study, as well as a past case study [14] , we suggest that future research seek to tackle the lack of methods and tooling in the area. though developers may be concerned about ethical issues, they lack the means to address these concerns. on the other hand, methods can also raise the awareness of developers in relation to ai ethics, creating concerns where there now are none. in creating these methods, we suggest exploring existing practices that can be used as is or tailored to implement ai ethics, as we have discussed here. given the amount of activity in ai ethics currently, with many governmental actors drafting their own ai ethics guidelines, likely followed by regulations, methods and tools will likely have practical demand in the future. thus, even if one barrier to implementing ai ethics is currently the fact that it is seldom considered a requirement on a project level, regulations and laws can force organizations to take ethics into account. this would inevitably result in a demand for methods in this area, as well as the birth of various in-house ones. finally, in terms of limitations, the most notable limitations of the study stem from the data and the research approach. the qualitative multiple case study approach always poses problems for the generalizability of the data. we acknowledge this as a limitation, although we also refer to eisenhardt [35] in arguing in favor of qualitative case studies, especially in the case of novel research areas. ai ethics, as far as empirical data goes, is a novel area of research. moreover, the multiple case study approach adds some further validity to the data, as we do not base our arguments on a single case. nonetheless, another limitation in the data is also that all the cases were based on finland. for example, the implementation of ai ethics can be more of a focus in us-based companies, as much of the current discussion on ai ethics also originates from the us. one other limitation in the data is that the interviews were conducted in finnish. the constructs such as transparency may not carry the same connotations in finnish as they do in english. this is especially the case with accountability and responsibility, which may not translate in a straightforward manner. however, during the interviews, we sought to clear any misunderstandings related to the constructs with the respondents. the research framework can also be argued to be a limitation. as ai ethics is a currently active field in terms of theoretical discussion, the constructs in the area are constantly evolving. the art principles and ead chosen as a basis of the framework were, at the time of writing, some of the most prominent works in the area. the framework ultimately presents but one way of perceiving ai ethics. this paper furthers our understanding of the current state of practice in the field of ai ethics. by means of a multiple case study, we studied the way ai ethics is currently implemented in practice, if it is implemented at all, when it is not formally or systematically implemented in software engineering projects. our findings can be summarized through the following two key takeaways: • even when ethics are not particularly considered, some currently commonly used software development practices, such as documentation, support ead. this is also the case with focusing on information security. • while the developers speculate potential socioethical impacts of the resulting system, they do not have means to address them. thus, from the point of view of software engineering methods and practices, this highlights a gap in the area. while some of the existing common practices support the implementation of some aspects of ai ethics, there are no methods or practices that help implement it on a project-level. further studies on the topic should seek to assist in the practical implementation of ai ethics. singular practices and especially project-level methods are needed to bridge the gap between research and practice in the area. this lack of higher-level methods was also highlighted in a review of tools and methods in the area [6] . open access this chapter is licensed under the terms of the creative commons attribution 4.0 international license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the creative commons license and indicate if changes were made. the images or other third party material in this chapter are included in the chapter's creative commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. if material is not included in the chapter's creative commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. ai 50: america's most promising artificial intelligence companies artificial intelligence in medicine artificial intelligence for law enforcement: challenges and opportunities industrial artificial intelligence for industry 4.0-based manufacturing systems hidden technical debt in machine learning systems from what to how: an initial review of publicly available ai ethics tools, methods and research to translate principles in-to practices towards moral autonomous systems ethically aligned design: a vision for prioritizing human well-being with autonomous and intelligent systems, first edition flourishing ethics value-sensitive design value sensitive design: applications, adaptations, and critiques. in: van den hoven why machine ethics? incorporating ethics into artificial intelligence ethically aligned design of autonomous systems: industry viewpoint and an empirical study stop explaining black box machine learning models for high stakes decisions and use interpretable models instead the ethics of information transparency false positives, false negatives, and false analyses: a rejoinder to "machine bias: there's software used across the country to predict future criminals, and it's biased against blacks for a meaningful artificial intelligence: towards a french and european strategy german federal ministry of transport and digital infrastructure: automated and con-nected driving ethics guidelines for trustworthy ai iso/iec jtc 1/sc 42 artificial intelligence responsible bots: 10 guidelines for developers of conversational ai principles alone cannot guarantee ethical ai does acm's code of ethics change ethical decision making in software development? ai ethics in industry: a research framework ethics in artificial intelligence: introduction to the special issue commitment nets in software process improvement mastering the semi-structured interview and beyond: from research design to analysis and publication developing a grounded theory approach: a comparison of glaser and strauss seeing without knowing: limitations of the transparency ideal and its application to algorithmic accountability evaluation and measurement of software process improvementa systematic literature review minimum viable product or multiple facet product? the role of mvp in software startups building theories from case study research. acad key: cord-318509-zwb758cg authors: nenonen, suvi; storbacka, kaj title: don't adapt, shape! use the crisis to shape your minimum viable system – and the wider market date: 2020-07-31 journal: industrial marketing management doi: 10.1016/j.indmarman.2020.05.022 sha: doc_id: 318509 cord_uid: zwb758cg abstract in addition to being resilient and adaptive, firms should also utilize shocks such as covid-19 to generate new business opportunities. two processes make markets and other economic systems more malleable during times of crises: (1) as the stasis of the market system is interrupted, it forces the system “into movement” and it requires less effort to nudge an already moving system in a specific direction; and (2) as deeply-rooted mental models are challenged during crises, any market-shaping initiative which promises a credible end to current instability with a new equilibrium will appeal to the natural human craving for stability. this malleability, in turn, creates multiple opportunities for firms to shape their markets and hence drive the market's development in favorable directions. we outline a generic process of market-shaping, comprising eight steps: (1) determining whether to act now or actively wait, (2) deciding whether to be a shaper or a supporter, (3) developing a scalable vision for the future market, (4) recognizing the minimum viable system linked to this vision, (5) driving changes in market-level properties, (6) securing that value is quantified and shared, (7) inviting actor engagement for implementation, and (8) defending against possible retaliations from threatened market systems. disruptions and crises are particularly suitable times for shaping markets and other economic systems. market systems which are turbulent, discontinuous, or unstable are more malleable and, hence, more shapeable. there are two process at play: (1) as the stasis of the market system is interrupted, it forces the system "into movement" -and it requires less effort to nudge an already moving system in a specific direction; and (2) as deeply-rooted mental models are challenged during crises, actors are more prone to engage in higher-level learning, suggesting that any market-shaping initiative which promises a credible end to current instability with a new equilibrium will appeal to the natural human craving for stability. market systems are plastic and differ in their capacity to change (take form) and to remain stable (retain form) during different points of time (nenonen et al., 2014) . viable market systems have several mechanisms that stabilize them, ranging from high levels of compatibility between the system elements to various feedback loops (peters, nenonen, polese, frow, & payne, 2020) . due to these mechanisms, stable market systems are more likely to resist intentional attempts to shape them than market systems that are undergoing changes. one can argue that market systems function like physical systems in that the static coefficient of friction is much larger than the kinetic one. consequently, nudging an already-disrupted market into a specific favored direction is far easier than stirring a static one into motion in any direction (nenonen & storbacka, 2018) . the niche construction theorists acknowledge, in a similar vein, that ungoverned occurrences such as environmental or financial crises, give rise to deliberate shaping by individual actors or collectives (luksha, 2008) . therefore, it seems obvious that market shapers should time their efforts to coincide with periods of instability or discontinuity (mcgrath, 2019; nenonen & storbacka, 2018) . what this also suggests is that actors with less clout have a greater chance to change their market if they time their shaping efforts to periods in which this system is already experiencing turmoil and institutional conflict. as argued by economic sociology (callon, 1998; granovetter, 1992) , markets can be viewed as socially constructed human artifacts, implying that markets in the objective sense do not exist; i.e., there are no markets that exist independently from us humans. markets are what we -market actors -make them to be (kjellberg et al., 2012) . particularly, shared cognitive structures emerge among market actors over time, stabilizing the market (rosa, porac, runser-spanjol, & saxon, 1999) . in other words: as market actors start to view various elements of the market as stable, the market becomes increasingly so. however, this link between the shared cognitive structures and the markets' stability works in the other direction, too. crises in the business environment, whether man-or virus-made, challenge the stabilitypromoting mental models, i.e., dominant logics (prahalad, 2004) or industry recipes (spender, 1989 ) that cause active inertia (sull, 1999) for firms and markets alike. a crisis is a discontinuous event that creates a disorienting dilemma (mezirow, 1991) , which decreases the level of inertia around established roles and shared frames of reference. therefore, it often acts as a "trigger" (storbacka & nenonen, 2015) for higher-level learning, i.e., learning beyond adaptation and beyond the extant learning boundary. this type of learning has been called transformative (mezirow, 1991) , expansive (engeström, 2001) or doubleloop (argyris & schön, 1978) learning. such learning requires proactive unlearning of key organizational processes and the questioning of an organization's assumptions about itself and its environment (morgan & berthon, 2008) . this leads to breakdowns in the flow of normal actions and forces actors to question their current practices (cope, 2003) . the consequence is simple: a crisis both forces and enables highlevel learning in which both human and organizational actors are ready to question current mental models and managerial practices and engage in developing new ones. in this section we synthesize the current notions in the emerging literature on market-shaping and shaping strategies (cf., nenonen & storbacka, 2018; patvardhan & ramachandran, 2020) into a marketshaping process, comprising eight steps: (1) determining whether to act now or actively wait, (2) deciding whether to be a shaper or a supporter, (3) developing a scalable vision for the future market, (4) recognizing the minimum viable system linked to this vision, (5) driving changes in market-level properties, (6) securing that value is quantified and shared, (7) inviting actor engagement for implementation, and (8) defending against possible retaliations from threatened market systems. this process -leading to a shaped market -is summarized in fig. 1 . strategy research and many strategy practitioners have an implicit bias for action. however, to have a genuine strategy is also about saying "no" and being clear about the opportunities that firm will not pursue (cf., rumelt, 2011; magretta, 2011) . this applies to market shaping strategies, too. when contemplating the possibility of shaping markets, companies should pause and consider critically whether it is in their best interests -here and now -to start influencing the development path of their market (nenonen & storbacka, 2018) . thus, the prospective market-shaper first needs to determine whether the right time to act is now -or whether it makes sense to wait further. as discussed above, crises lead to malleability in markets, which in turn leads to shapeability of these markets. however, the fact that a market is shapeable now does not mean that it would not become even more shapeable in the near future. perhaps there is another major economic stimulus package in preparation, and the market-shaping endeavor is better timed only after its launch. alternatively, maybe the market is now at its most malleable, and waiting further would unduly increase the chances of someone else nudging the market onto a path that is detrimental to our aspirations. the likely future "shape" of the market being shaped gives some indications about this now vs. later timing decision. if the future market is likely to exhibit network effects, as many platform-based markets do (mcintyre & srinivasan, 2017) , then there may be some early-mover advantages. however, if the functioning of the future market is dependent on complementary assets and resources that are not available at all, or not available in sufficient quantities, then it is advisable to wait before commencing market-shaping (adner, 2012; adner & kapoor, 2010) . in case the decision is to wait, then it does not indicate doing nothing. quite to the contrary, firms aspiring to shape their markets should engage in what management scholars have called 'strategy as active waiting' (sull, 2005) , i.e., making all necessary preparations but waiting for the market to be ready to be influenced, be it a golden opportunity or a sudden-death threat. even though most of the popular press portrays covid-19 as a negative shock to economies globally, it may also be a golden opportunity for many organizations. regardless of the optimal timing decision discussed above, firms need to determine whether they should be leading the eventual marketshaping initiative -or to play a supporting role. a decision is needed whether to innovate or imitate, and whether to adopt the role of a first mover, a fast follower or a late entrant; (cf., katila & chen, 2008; markides & geroski, 2004; posen, lee, & yi, 2013) . the extant research has investigated these strategic choices in the context of market entry (barczak, 1995; chiu, chen, shyu, & tzeng, 2006) and innovation success (katila & chen, 2008; posen et al., 2013) . entering an existing market as a new company or with a new product is, however, a different strategic challenge from shaping a market, and hence we cannot rely solely on these studies for definite guidance. again, the likely future "shape" of the market provides insights to this decision. in case the market is likely to be reliant on a single keystone organization (iansiti & levien, 2004) , orchestrating the market and holding a key leadership role in it, then this keystone organization should assume the role of the market shaper. under other circumstances, when the playing field is more even, multiple firms may consider assuming the role of the leading market-shaper. even though the everyday terms and sayings such as "trailblazer" and "playing second fiddle" elevate the role of the shaper, marketshaping is very much a collective endeavor. collective action is found out to be crucial to shaping existing markets (baker & nenonen, 2020; maciel & fischer, 2020) and creating new ones (lee, struben, & bingham, 2018; struben et al., 2020) . therefore, supporter firms -by being part of this necessary collective action -play an instrumental part in market-shaping strategies. this supporter role may well allow the firm to spend less resources in the market-shaping process, but still benefit from the shaped market, and be able to influence how exactly the market-shaping unfolds. thus, also supporter firms should have a thorough understanding of all the steps of the market-shaping processes. finally, it would be too simplistic to assume that market-shaping roles -that of a shaper and a supporter -would remain unchanged during a long-term, systemic change process. instead, these roles are often fluid: a shaper may turn into a supporter later on -and vice versa. hence, having sufficient strategic flexibility to revisit this decision over the course of the market-shaping process is not only possible, but often necessary. the starting point for many market-shaping journeys is a deep dissatisfaction with the current state of things, leading the individual or the collective to question the status quo (patvardhan & ramachandran, 2020) . to use the crisis as an opportunity for higher level system-based learning, a focal actors needs to engage key individuals both in its own organization and in the wider market system to analyze the questions raised by the crisis and critically consider and, if needed, reject some of the accepted practices and 'wisdoms' of the existing situation. however, mere frustration with the status quo is not enough; it is also necessary to imagine an alternate state (nenonen & storbacka, 2018; patvardhan & ramachandran, 2020) , by modeling possible and alternative ways (sometimes called 'protovisions') to solve the identified problem. a key skill for a focal actor is the authoring of meanings (weick, 1995) , which can take the form of articulating simplified versions of the model through some medium that enables boundary crossing between market actors. such market-shaping vision usually is based on a deep understanding of customers' and other stakeholders' value drivers, an ability to comprehend the entire market system outside the firm-customer dyad, an ability to reframe phenomena creatively or to change the reference points, and prioritizing the (long-term) value creation for customers and other stakeholders over the (shortterm) value capture for the market-shaping firm (nenonen, storbacka, & windahl, 2019) . when developing and evaluating possible visions for the future market, managers should pay special attention to the scalability of this vision: it is relatively easy to achieve even radical changes on a small scale, but the viability and durability of market-shaping is oftentimes dependent on achieving critical mass (laland, matthews, & feldman, 2016; patvardhan & ramachandran, 2020) . developing a scalable vision needs to be initiated by the shaping actor, but it will require dialogue with other actors in order to be moved from a protovision to a believable declaration of intent that can guide further strategy development for many market actors. one of the challenges of (business) marketing and management is that it offers limited granularity to the "operating environment" surrounding the firm (möller et al., 2020) . to put it bluntly: there is the firm, its immediate customers and suppliers -and then the elusive (cue your favorite term) industry / market / operating environment / landscape. however, to implement -or even conceive -market-shaping strategies, managers need to appreciate the different layers of their operating environment. for market-shaping strategies, the lower meso layer (möller et al., 2020) , or the strategic network or ecosystem is of particular importance. this layer consists of the "multilateral set of partners that need to interact in order for a focal value proposition to materialize" (adner, 2017, p. 40) . in a similar vein, niche construction theorists propose that organisms and organizations can become "landscape shapers" if they focus their shaping efforts to the niche they allowing customers to pick-and-choose the individual services included in previously bundled logistics solutions to lower the perceived risk of overpaying property rights being exchanged (e.g., ownership vs. access) moving from leasing ict equipment to be used in offices to selling ict equipment to be used in home offices price or pricing pricing logic/price carrier moving from "per person/year" to "per trip" pricing in corporate travel insurance to acknowledge the current drop (and likely future increase) in travel volumes price point increasing the price point considerably to signal the move from a mass service to more restricted one (that is less prone to infections) channels connecting providers and customers changing agricultural auctions from physical ones to fully online transaction mechanism (how providers and customers are matched) moving from online auctions to "everyone gets x% of their requested volume at the average bid price" to manage an acute shortage of critical supplies actor network supply network number of participants in the supply network diversifying the raw material provision by increasing the number of providers types of participants in the supply network sourcing some components from local manufacturers to make the global supply chain more resilient work division in the supply network (e.g., out-vs. insourcing) insourcing assembly operations to reduce the reliance on far-away partners new customer groups broadening the target customer definition of online grocery shopping from only families and professional couples to also elderly people customers' competences to use the product / service tutorials on how to use videoconferencing services to their full potential customers' value perceptions (utility sought) demonstrating that leadership development can be delivered more effectively and efficiently online than in a traditional classroom setting work division between firm and customers (e.g., self-service vs. full service) grocery shops launching services with ready-made food plans & recipes for the week infrastructure supporting customers' use processes lobbying the government to invest in high-speed internet network in rural areas to support access to remote work & education provision number of competing providers (directly or indirectly) using the liquidity crisis to buy a competitor that has been competing with environmentally unsustainable business practices how competing providers interact or cooperate in order to service customers commercial landlords collective developing a process for business tenants to apply for temporary rent reductions representations terminology used labelling online delivery services "contactless" or "contact-free" to highlight their safety how media portrays the market encouraging media to run stories promoting local recreation and tourism market research and statistics convincing gartner to develop market research on the available remote workforce management tools key events and/or awards portraying the market pivot the 'auctioneer of the year' award and the related event to 'online auctioneer of the year' industry associations (e.g., businesses represented, themes promoted) technical standards (e.g., specifications, industry self-regulation) developing industry self-regulation related to safe restaurant practices formal rules and laws (regional, national or international) promoting more strict national self-sufficiency laws related to agriculture as well as pharmaceutical products and equipment social norms (e.g., societal values, industry conventions) augmenting and solidifying the transition to remote / flexible working arrangements in contexts that have had mandatory office presence occupy instead of their entire external environment (cf., laland, odling-smee, & feldman, 2000; luksha, 2008) . this minimum viable system is the smallest and simplest system that can support any market-shaping vision (cf., konietzko, bocken, & hultink, 2020) . the boundaries of a niche can be depicted by the division of labor and distribution of relevant knowledge (brittain, 1994) , dependence on common resources (hannan & freeman, 1989) and common rules of the game (luksha, 2008) . hence, the second step in market-shaping process is to outline one's "niche", which we label a minimum viable system: which actors are needed in order to realize the market-shaping vision in its most streamlined form? when analyzing the role of higher-level learning in a marketshaping context, storbacka and nenonen (2015) argued for a need to expand the view beyond organizational learning. for the learning to have the ability to shape markets, the learning processes need to involve other market actors that are central to the focal actor, i.e., the minimum viable system. therefore, the target is not only learning within the system, but learning as a system; i.e., groups of organizations coming together to learn as a group (knight & pye, 2005) . this clearly indicates that a firm taking a supporter role needs to secure a role in the minimum viable system, and actively participate in the on-going learning process. in addition to creating a market-shaping vision and involving the actors in the minimum viable system, for market-shaping to happen, the market has to be shaped: changes must occur in market-level properties such as market structures, market practices, and market agendas (storbacka & nenonen, 2015) . the, again, will require participation of both the shaper and the supporter(s). in practice, this is usually best done in two phases: first outlining the required changes to the minimum viable system and after that the required changes to the broader market. for a shaper firm this implies a need to start by hypothesizing potential changes needed in the minimum viable system for the vision to become real. a long list of possible changes can be categorized under three themes: changes linked to (a) exchange, typically related to modifying business models: developing the offering, adjusting price or pricing, and modifying matching methods for supply and demand, (b) the actor network, associated to modifying the focal firm's own supply network, modifying various customer-side features, and modifying provision, i.e., the availability of competing offerings, and (c) the institutional transmitters related to the market (e.g., representations that symbolize the market as well as the formal and informal norms guiding actor behaviors) (nenonen, storbacka, & frethey-bentham, 2019; nenonen, storbacka, & windahl, 2019) . a summary of the possible changes, and illustrative examples related to the covid-19 crisis, can be found in table 1 . nenonen, storbacka, and windahl (2019) found that successful market-shapers had applied idiosyncratic patterns of shaping efforts, as the "elements are interconnected and contingent on each other" (p. 626). hence, it appears that it is not possible to induce a market-level change by influencing only one of the aspects outlined in table 1 . instead, market-shaping actors drive changes in several (but not all) market elements, either simultaneously or sequentially. finally, the term 'hypothesize' also carries a special meaning in this step. as market-shaping is a highly complex task, entailing reconfiguring both firm's business model as well as the market system, these strategies are often implemented through on-going iteration and experimentation (nenonen, storbacka, & windahl, 2019) . this iterative nature of implementing market-shaping strategies elevates the role of supporter firms: they will have their own responsibilities to drive changes in certain market elements, and to contribute to the collective learning process. success in shaping markets requires that other actors than the shaper also change the way they operate. hence, it is not surprising that even the earliest works on market-shaping recognized value propositions as key components of these strategies (cf., kindström et al., 2018; kumar, scheer, & kotler, 2000; storbacka & nenonen, 2011) . these value propositions, summarizing the benefits of the future market to the particular actor, should be developed to every actor included in the minimum viable system. furthermore, these value propositions should be "win-win-win": the future market system should leave everyone involved in the minimum viable system better off than -or at least as well off as -the current market (nenonen & storbacka, 2018; nenonen, storbacka, sklyar, frow, & payne, 2020) . a detailed analysis of market-shaping value propositions reveals further two additional desirable features. first, value propositions that include quantification of the promised value and/or are verified by objective thirds parties tend to be more believable . second, involving other actors in a collaborative process of developing and communicating the value proposition supports the acceptance of this value proposition . hence, firm choosing supporter roles play a critical role in securing an appropriate approach to value creation and value appropriation in the minimum viable system. all strategies make or break at the point of implementation, and market-shaping strategies are no exception to this rule. however, implementing market-shaping strategies requires managers to embrace a much more collaborative approach than competitive strategies (clarke & fuller, 2010; ketchen jr, ireland, & snow, 2007) . internally, this implies cross-functional coordination and alignment, as no functional area is likely to command all resources or expertise related to marketshaping (nenonen, storbacka, & windahl, 2019) . externally, collaborative approach to implementing market-shaping strategies requires engaging other actors to join the common change process. this interorganizational collaboration is likely to focus on actors supporting the minimum viable system, and it is can be supported by helping other actors to operate in the new market and to de-risk or incentivize them to change their ways (baker & nenonen, 2020; nenonen, storbacka, & windahl, 2019) . engaging actors in the minimum viable system can be difficult as the shaping firm does not have any formal authority over other organizations in the system. to achieve "impact without authority," market shapers need to orchestrate (sull & ruelas-gossi, 2010) collaborative efforts by providing platforms or events that allow for emergence, by creating room for interactions, and building interdependence among actors in the minimum viable system. orchestration of resources and activities in the minimum viable system requires a switch from a selfcentric, firm-based view to an allocentric ("othercentered") view in which value is created and shared in the minimum viable system. the allocentric view allows firms to recognize and seize opportunities that can only be created by collaboration between organizations rather than by an individual firm, no matter how powerful (nenonen & storbacka, 2018) . many organizational processes can be designed in order to invite extensive collaboration. one example of this is open innovation processes (chesbrough & appleyard, 2007) involving a multitude of actors across functional and corporate boundaries. a market-shaping firm can often focus primarily on the platform that enables collaboration, because in our information-saturated age, various supporting organizations already have all the data needed for combinatorial innovation (yoo, boland jr, lyytinen, & majchrzak, 2012) . finally, the inherent complexity and unpredictability of marketshaping strategies require that managers empower others -both inside their own organization as well as external supporting firms -to make decisions and adjust their activities as they learn (storbacka & nenonen, 2015) . one powerful way of fostering such autonomous, but still coherent, decision-making under complexity are simple rules: a limited number of guidelines or heuristics designed to guide everyday decision-making in a way that balances concrete guidance with the freedom to exercise discretion and creativity (bingham & eisenhardt, 2011; eisenhardt & sull, 2001) . even though market-shaping value propositions should benefit everyone in the minimum viable system, market-shaping strategies are not free from competition, quests for dominance and even outright retaliation. systems theory suggests that harmonious interactions (i.e., 'resonance') between system elements and different systems is needed for long-term viability (barile & polese, 2010; wieland, polese, vargo, & lusch, 2012) . as well-designed market-shaping strategies ensure win-win-win outcomes for the actors within the particular minimum viable system, the competitive pressures are more likely to come from "external" market systems -especially if these associated market systems face reduced growth, profit or power as a result of the market-shaping strategy. hence, market-shapers should avoid -or actively managepossible retaliation by actors occupying negatively affected market systems (lawlor & kavanagh, 2015; peters et al., 2020) . this will require the allocation of resources and securing the support of various institutions in the market (such as industry associations). in this process both shapers and supporters play an important role. we appreciate that making a dramatic strategic change during a time of crisis is a daunting prospect -and developing the required capabilities when nations are in lockdown is even more so. however, it can be done. we are currently collaborating with a global company to support them to develop and implement their market-shaping strategy, spanning multiple regions and product lines. all of the work -analyzing the current state of organizational capabilities, developing tools and learning modules, as well as providing support to teams when they are going through the process outlined above -has happened online. only time will tell whether this organization will be successful in shaping their market, but their experiences hopefully show that it is possible to go after shaping strategies under these unusual circumstances. in addition to market-shaping being possible during this covid-19 crisis, it may also be essential. the array of challenges facing the globesuch as poverty, inequality, natural resource depletion, and climate change -are going to require the collective action of governments, civil society and businesses. scholars are increasingly in agreement that corporate responsibility and philanthropic approaches these sustainability challenges are inadequate (cf., haigh & hoffman, 2014; ritala, huotari, bocken, albareda, & puumalainen, 2018) . instead, what is needed are changes at the core of the commercial business models (bocken, short, rana, & evans, 2014 ) and a large-scale transition to the circular economy (geissdoerfer, savaget, bocken, & hultink, 2017) . what would be a better time to ramp up these efforts than a global crisis, commanding the attention of every business? our hope it is that the market-shaping process outlined in this paper helps businesses to rise to this challenge, whether they assume a shaper or a supporter role. this period of disruption is also a major call-to-action for the researcher community. there are still a lot of unknowns when it comes to market dynamics and market-shaping strategies. for example, what kind of indicators should managers use to assess the malleability of their markets -and hence to time their market-shaping actions? how fast do market systems "cool off", closing the window of opportunity for proactive market-shaping? is it possible to design markets to become 'antifragile' (taleb, 2012) , so that they would not only withstand but benefit from external shocks and turbulence? do different external shock vary in terms of their market-level effects -and hence are the opportunities for market-shaping different when faced with environmental (e.g., earthquake, flood), economical (e.g., deep recession), political (e.g., fall of communist states in the late 20th century), or biological (e.g., pandemic) shocks? if we are asking the managers to rise to the occasion, be agile and turn the current crisis into a major opportunity, we researchers should do the same too. the wide lens: a new strategy for innovation ecosystem as structure: an actionable construct for strategy value creation in innovation ecosystems: how the structure of technological interdependence affects firm performance in new technology generations organizational learning: a theory of action perspective collaborating to shape markets: emergent collective market work markets changing, changing markets: institutional work as market shaping new product strategy, structure, 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creation and market innovation scripting markets: from value propositions to market propositions learning with the market: facilitating market innovation collective action problems during market formation: the role of resource allocation strategic orchestration the dynamics of standing still: firestone tire & rubber and the radial revolution antifragile: things that gain from disorder managing risk and resilience sensemaking in organizations toward a service (eco)systems perspective on value co-creation strategic design: orchestrating and leveraging market-shaping capabilities organizing for innovation in the digitized world this research is funded by a marsden grant (uoa1333) from the royal society of new zealand. key: cord-021248-ui1di3qa authors: jung, kwangho; lee, sabinne title: a systematic review of rfid applications and diffusion: key areas and public policy issues date: 2015-09-04 journal: nan doi: 10.1186/s40852-015-0010-z sha: doc_id: 21248 cord_uid: ui1di3qa rfid applicants called as e-id, smart tag, and contactless smart card are being applied to numerous areas in our daily life, including tracking manufactured goods, currency, and patients to payments systems. to review these various applications of rfid is important to exploring not only ongoing e-governance issues such as digital identification, delivery process, and governance but also business oriented application areas like supply chain. through a systematic review methodology from 111 previous studies about rfid technology for public sector, we found six key areas of rfid applications: defense and security, identification, environmental applications, transportation, healthcare and welfare, and agriculture-livestock. we also suggest that the diffusion and applications of rfid can involve unexpected disadvantages including technological deficiency, uncertain benefits, dubious transparency, uncomfortable privacy issue, and unequal distribution of digital power and literacy. further research on rfid impact includes not only various theoretical issues of but also legal and managerial problems. rigorous research is required to explore what factors are critical to adopt and implement new rfid applications in terms of technology governance and digital literacy. massive data driven research is also expected to identify rfid performance in government agencies and various industry sectors. background rfid technology has been widely implemented all over the world and its impact on our daily life is very diverse and massive wyld, 2005) . those diverse areas of rfid application include logistical tracking, monitoring and maintenance of products, product safety and information, and payment process. today many governments around the world in both developed 1 and developing 2 countries are trying to apply it for various areas from tracking manufactured goods, currency, and patients to securing sagety of payments systems. massive rfid applications around all the industry sectors and countries are expected to generate a huge potential benefits for sustainable efficient energy infrastructure, transportation safety, and health care. over the past 50 years, rfid technology went through innovations and progressions to become a more efficient and effective gadget for human beings as well as effective solutions of technical and organizational problems in various industry sectors. however, key issues of appropriate ict technology, governing networks among rfid domains, standardization requirement, and privacy still remain unsolved 3 . we review previous literature about rfid technology used in public sectors in order to identify what has been done and found to suggest policy implications and further research agenda. more specifically, we discuss four aspects regarding rfid research issues and policy implications. first, we examine various competing concepts of rfid use by governments all over the world. second, we categorize numerous applications of rfid technology through analyzing previous literature. third, we try to figure out technological issues and governance problems that rfid technology faces today. last, we draw key public issues and suggest future research agenda. a brief history of rfid technology rfid technology was emerged as frederick hertz found existence of radio frequency during his experiment in 1886 (wyld, 2005) and developed for the purpose of defense during the second world war 4 . during 1970s and 1980s, the rfid system attracted plenty of scholars and innovators, so efforts to register patents progressed (takahashi, 2004) . researchers like charles walton had registered a patent to use rfid. in the 1980s, many us and european companies recognized the importance of developing rfid technology and started to manufacture rfid tags. soon scholars at mit university opened an auto-id center to promote the use and implementation of rfid technology. but most of the scholars report that the first commercialization of rfid technology was done by wal-mart as they launched rfid based material identifying system in 2005 (shahram and manish 2005) . wal-mart is now tracking merchandise including food, apparels, and electronic items with rfid technology in their supply chain. 5 . rfid technology is a brand new policy tool that can ensure high transparency, efficiency and effectiveness not only in industrial areas but also in government service delivery. table 1 describes a brief history of how rfid technology was developed and diffused. we searched online data base and expert based information to identify rfid publications between 2003 and 2015. we categorized rfid applications and analyzed issues and concerns that rfid faces today by systematically reviewing published literature. we have the idea of using radio frequency to reflect waves from objects was started from frederick hertz's experiment. american navy research laboratories developed a system known as iff (identify friend or foe). the first application of rfid consisted of identifying allied or enemy planes during ww2 through the use of iff system. charles walton, a former ibm researcher registered patent using rfid technology, a radio-operated door lock. [1980] [1981] [1982] [1983] [1984] [1985] [1986] [1987] [1988] [1989] [1990] many us and european companies started to manufacture rfid tags. the auto-id center for mit became epc global, an organization whose objective is to promote the use and adoption of rfid technology. wal-mart launched and rfid pilot. collected literature we use for systematic review from two different resources. first, most of the studies are found by searching the e-database. we could access electronic databases, such as google scholar, world web of science (wws), proquest central, and science direct through seoul national university's main library homepage. we had set 'rfid technology' , 'rfid government, ' 'rfid application, and 'rfid issue' as keywords for searching literature. we found most of the research through this method of searching. the second method we used for collecting data was having discussions with experts. to do this, we first made a list of experts who specialize in it technology, science technology, and public administration. five experts agreed to help us and recommended some research papers that were known for their fluent flow of logic and plentiful contents. we chose relevant research papers from among experts' recommendations. in sum we had used previous literature collected from two methods we discussed above, searching e-database and asking experts, as our resource of searching. [ figure 1 ] shows analytical frame that we use for this study. we have determined the literature for systematic review according to three stages shown on the flow chart. first, the original total number of studies we have found from the e-database was 4260. also 185 research papers were found from experts' recommendations and previous public papers. a total of 4,445 studies were chosen through the first stage. second, we excluded 4,121 following general eligibility criteria by screening title and abstract. more specifically, we excluded rfid studies only with one of the following criteria: 1) studies focusing on private sector; 2) studies without considering how public sector implemented rfid technology; 3) studies that did not discuss any social scientific implications; and 4) studies that only deal with rfid technology from pure scientific and engineering points of view. in sum, we included only 324 papers that discussed rfid issues and their implications in public sector. third, we removed further 213 studies fig. 1 analytical frame too much focusing on private sector or rfid technology itself, rather on its applications in our society and social scientific implications. finally, 111 articles were chosen for our systematic review. [ figure 2 ] below showed descriptive statistics of collected literatures by published year. it shows 22 studies were published in 2007 among 111 literatures. as we already described above in history of rfid section, the popularization and commercialization of rfid technology was started in 2005 with wal-mart's adoption. it seems that after wal-mart's innovative footsteps hit the world, many scholars were started to recognize the potential of new technology and tried to understand and develop rfid technology. besides some governments from all over the world implemented new way of public service delivery using rfid technology. consequently, 49 literatures were publishedbetween 2006 and 2008 and it forms almost 45 % of our collected studies for this study, we categorized governments' way of using rfid technology in 6 areas; agriculture and livestock, defense and security, environmental applications, healthcare and welfare, identification, and transportation. [ figure 3 ] shows descriptive statistics of collected literatures categorized by applications. we categorized studies that did not focus on specific sector and analyze and introduce rfid technology from the general perspectives as 'rfid general'. 'rfid general' studies usually deal with various ways of using rfid technology in diverse sectors simultaneously. as we can see from [fig. 3] , rfid general area had 42 papers. that means still lots of rfid studies could not be fully specialized and remained in status of generally introducing rfid technology. identification sector scores secondly highest number of published literatures among areas. this result seems natural because e-id card or e-passport have most powerful force that can hurt privacy, one of the most serious and notorious issues that rfid technology face today key applied areas of rfid as we show in [table 1 ], the history of rfid technology was started from the need for ensuring national security. almost 60 years have passed since us army developed rfid based identification system to identify allies and enemies, rfid technology is still used for protecting people. for instance, weinstein (2005) and konsysnki & smith (2003) reported how the us army and navy implement rfid technology in cargo containers to identify materials. the us army and navy implement rfid not only to identify us troops' own weapons and containers but also to identify enemies in battle (tien 2004) 6 . rfid systems are also important in terms of airport and port security. after the 9/11 terror attack on the united states, president george w. bush let all the airport and port in us adopt identification systems based on rfid technology to protect its nation from additional terrorist attacks (werb and sereiko 2002) 7 . in 2012, the taiwanese government decided to implement an rfid based e-seal system to increase security and efficiency (tsai and huang 2012) . in addition, rfid technology can be used effectively in prison management 8 and child protection. in some countries like japan and republic of korea, the rfid tag is implemented in child protection monitoring (table 2 ). 9 electronic passports like 'e-passports' were adopted electrically after the 9/11 attack. after the terrible tragedy broke heart of united states, the american government became aware of the importance of checking visas and passports correctly. the us department of state soon let people who wanted to enter us to use rfid tag embedded electronic passports instead of traditional barcode based passports 10 . the european union also endorsed the inclusion of biological information in e-passports. the eu justice and home affairs council decided to include fingerprints as a second mandatory identifier on passports in 2004. 11 in addition, rfid can be used in e-id cards in various countries. for example, in the united kingdom, prime minister tony blair and his labor party convinced the nation to adopt biometrically-enhanced national identification cards (ezovski and watkins 2007) . tony blair's administration announced its will to implement rfid tag embedded national identification card in late 2004. china is another case where the e-id card is used today. as a matter of fact, china is the country where e-id card is widely and largely adopted today. the beijing olympics held in 2008 lit the fuse of adoption. the largest smart card project was implemented as a part of preparing the most prominent international sports event. in (table 3) . rfid technology can be widely applied in environmental applications. adopting an rfid system in waste management is the most prominent way of using rfid to ensure efficient, eco-friendly waste management among lots of countries in the world. payt (pay-as-you-throw) program done by european union (eu) is the pioneer of this field. payt is an rfid based waste pricing model that allows each individuals or each household to pay for the tag along with the total amount of waste they throw. since each household and individual has a waste box in which rfid tags are embedded, the exact volume of waste can be calculated. in europe this incentive based system has been proven to be a powerful policy tool for reducing the total amount of waste and for encouraging recycling (schindler et al. 2012) . similar systems are broadly implemented in us (ransford et al. 2012) . in south korea, the ministry of environment introduced it to industry and urged them to use an rfid based waste management system, especially in medical waste management. rfid technology is implemented in waste management in developed and developing countries, but the purpose of adoption is somewhat different from europe to the us. india, the second-most populated country in the world, has adopted rfid technology to cope with the rapid increase of volume and types of waste (infotech 2013) . similarly in 2010, what china faced were the world expo and huge amounts of construction waste that comprised 30 % to 40 % of the total urban waste. shanghai was chosen for a pilot project using an rfid based waste management system. all the waste dumping trucks had an embed rfid tag and volume of waste they carry was checked by the local government (ruan and hu 2011) . another interesting case of environmental application emerges from south korea. the south korean government operates u-street trees systems through which the exact location and status of street trees can be monitored. information about location and status of street trees are collected by an rfid tag that is attached to each tree is saved in a web information system, so trees can be managed effectively. kim et al. (2006) claim that this web based information system could manage information remotely with an interactive system (table 4) . public transportation is another popular sector for rfid technology applications. rfid based electronic toll collection technology is one of the oldest and widespread rfid implementation (ulatowski 2007) . as soon as an rfid tag embedded car arrives at a toll booth, the rfid reader scans and reads the information that the rfid tag contains. the driver will pay debits according to the price that electronic reader suggests. in the us, electronic toll collection is thought as efficient and effective method that eliminates long lines of traffic at toll booth (ulatowski 2007) . rfid based toll collection is also adopted in criminal cases because it enables prosecutors to identify the exact location (smith 2006) . in south korea, the korean government has set credit card-linked electronic toll collection system called 'hypass' especially for collecting transportation tolls on express ways. if an rfid tag is embedded on their cars, drivers can pass the tollbooth without stopping the car because rfid reader scan the data immediately and handle the whole payment process in about 5 s (kim 2008) . hong kong launched similar public transportation toll collection system in 1997 and the 'octopus card' is now internationally famous for its convenience. this system is able to handle 10 million transactions per day and includes all modes of public transport (kovavisaruch and suntharasaj 2007) . south korea has set credit card-linked electronic toll collection system called 'hypass' especially for collecting transportation tolls on express ways. rfid technology is also implemented in railroad toll collection in india, where railroads are the most widely used form of public transportation. if an rfid tag is embedded on their cars, drivers can pass the tollbooth without stopping the car because rfid reader scan the data immediately and handle the whole payment process in about 5 s (kim, 2008) . in addition, rfid has been used as a critical technology to promote efficiency and transparency for public transportation system in developing countries. for instance, the mexican government runs "creating traffic knowledge in mexico: applying rfid to prevent vandalism" and one of the purposes of this innovative project is to develop a transportation information system to acquire more subtle data necessary for government decision making (prado et al. 2010 ). analogous to mexican case, in bangladesh where brta (bangladesh road transport authority) was started in 2003, the technology is operated mainly for control and supervision of the road transport systems ). rfid technology is also implemented in railroad toll collection in india, where railroads are the most widely used form of public transportation (table 5) . rfid enables hospitals to manage their equipment more easily and save expenses in public health areas 12 . the us government agencies like fda have also already used rfid tag in monitoring drug industry 13 . since american hospitals handle almost 4,000 (table 6) . rfid technology can be an effective tool for securing food safety and managing agriculture and livestock. another major advantage to this system is that animal disease tracking can be realized through innovative technology like rfid (hossain and quaddus 2009) . with the government support, researchers have developed the navigation system for appropriate pesticide use as a basic system for risk management in agriculture (nanseki et al. 2005) . rfid technology in agriculture was first introduced by the european union (eu) in the late 1990s and shortly thereafter many countries, such as australia, japan and south korea, adopted the innovation. among those countries, the australian government was the most passionate in implementing rfid 16 . for instance, all the livestock in australia have rfid embedded tags on their bodies immediately after they are born; information that enables farmers to identify each entity and its health status is registered in national livestock identification system (nlis). rfid technology in japan has been also adopted in agriculture especially to secure food safety and agricultural risk management that can occur by abusing pesticides (nanseki et al. 2005 , sugahara 2009 ). the japanese government planned to make a food traceability system by 2010 as a part of the "e-japan" plan . the united states is another case that applies mandatory rfid based identification system in managing livestock. according to rfid gazette (2006), the usda is pushing for rfid tagging of cattle to make tracing of disease patterns easier. with the formation of national institute for animal agriculture (niaa) in 2002, the plan for setting the national animal identification system was started. what the us taiwan government fulfilled through this program was "to be able to identify all animals and premises that have had contact with a foreign or domestic animal disease of concern within 48 h" (wyld, 2005) because "the sooner animal health officials can identify infected and exposed animals and premises, the sooner they can contain the disease and stop its spread (usda-aphis 2005)" (table 7) . public policy issues from rfid diffusion rfid applications and diffusion generate complex policy and governance problems. we address public policy issues such as technological gap and uncertainty of expecting potential benefits and costs from a rapid and massive rfid diffusion. uneasy governing issues in transparency, digital identification and power distribution are arising from inappropriate rfid applications. we discuss governance issues such as corruption, privacy problem, and digital monopoly and literacy in the following. technology is not still enough to satisfy all the elements that rfid is trying to perform various operational mechanisms. rfid technology deficiencies inevitably occur with the application of technology because there is niche space still left. for instance, rfid technology does not have a unified frequency standard yet. since there are no internationally agreed upon frequencies for rfid operations, permitted scanner/reader powers also differ between countries. there are still significant differences between the frequencies from the eu and the usa ). in addition, reichenhach (2008) pointed out the lack of storage capacity. in the eu, where rfid based waste management is common, there are technological barriers like a shortage of storage capacity 17 . ema and fujigaki (2011) draw implications from a child monitoring case done in japan that being informed of children's exact location cannot guarantee their actual safety, but rfid tags often lead to that cherished illusion. vining (2005) warned about another possibility of niche space. according to his study about port security in the us, stealing goods without damaging rfid tag is possible because at ports, the container can be drilled into and contents can be removed. the rfid tag does not have to endure any damage through this whole process. in the us, as a response to continued pressure from various stakeholders, the us government even adopted the 'faraday cage' for privacy protection 18 (table 8) . 19 . in reality, the rfid tag is much more expensive than a barcode, which was very popular in identifying materials before the rise of rfid technology (becker 2004) . purchasing rfid devices, hardware, and tags is not sufficient to drive system relevantly. to guarantee a better quality of service, the rfid system needs more additional things such as "circular process mechanism, the richness of consultant, project manager, programmers and plentiful project labors" . these elements for a better rfid performance may involve considerable costs. kuo and chen (2008) reported that rfid technology consumers and government should pay the extra hidden cost in the healthcare industry (table 9) . rfid technology is expected to increase transparency and monitor corruption. however, rfid technology cannot ensure a high level of transparency than expected. as a matter of fact, rfid tags can be cloned and manipulated quite easily, and this kind of tag corruption can occur at every stage of rfid implementation. there are various examples to show an inappropriate use of rfid technology. for instance, armknecht et al. (2010a, b) warned the possibility of tag corruption. lee et al. (2012) pointed out reader corruption of the rfid technology. an existing security model mainly focuses on the possibility of tag corruption, but reader corruption can hurt consumers' privacy as seriously as tag corruption can. jules (2006) reported one of the tag corruption cases that observed in united states. one of the staff members who worked in a dupyu store, an unscrupulous retailer, attached a cloned tag to counterfeit drugs. avoine et al. (2010) argued that internet based databases can also be directly attacked and emphasized the possibility of reader corruption. there are also unethical behaviors to avoid rfid monitoring process. in the eu where an rfid based waste management system is aggressively implemented, some people disposed waste that came from their house at work places in order to avoid exact calculation through the rfid system. not only this, bilitewski (2008) reported that some conscienceless people are burning or transferring (table 10) . one of the most serious issues that rfid technology faces today is whether rfid technology is secure enough to protect privacy. privacy is the most important concern rfid users have to deal with (perakslis and wolk 2005) . rfid tag embedded chips often contain important personal information and usually this kind of private information can hurt one's privacy seriously if leaked. to prevent leakage of private information, engineers developed cryptography, but there remains criticism 20 . the reason why these sorts of privacy concerns arise is because of the lack of security protection capacity of modern rfid technology. as we discussed above in the technological issues section, rfid technology today is not developed to secure perfect privacy. the technology itself has lots of deficiencies and people are smart enough to find niche spaces that can destroy the rfid security process. rfid itself can involve not only various hidden costs 21 but also induces a serious privacy problem 22 . however, despite these possibilities of attacks on privacy, there are lots of stakeholders and scholars who advocate the potential benefits of rfid. they claim that tracking and profiling consumers is solely for implementing rfid chips more effectively. eaward rerisi, one of the producers of early implementation of rfid technology argued that, "an rfid reader can read the number on a tag, but without knowing what the number means, there is no way to access personal information. the idea that the tags can be read by just anybody-that's pretty impossible" (murray 2003) (table 11) . unequal distribution of rfid technology can generate unequal distribution of various resources such as information and digital literacy. especially in developing countries, active tag, which is more safe for securing privacy than passive tag is more expensive than passive tag the combination of unbalanced power distribution between stakeholders and a low level of digital literacy can cause serious problems. ketprom et al. (2007) emphasized that in developing countries like thailand 23 , governments should provide education and training on how to use brand new technology to poor farmers whose digital literacy remains relatively low. but poor farmers in thailand are not the only stakeholders who are suffering from a lack of digital literacy. in bangladesh, where rfid toll collection is common, traffic policies have no interest in using rfid technology for managing public transportation systems. rather, they prefer traditional ways of toll collecting to information based technology . prasanth et al. (2009) found that the lack of digital literacy among the indian people hampered an effective process of railroad toll collection in india. another problem developing countries face is an unbalanced power distribution due to lack of democratic value embedded governance. chen et al. (2008) criticized the taiwanese government because it monopolizes most of the information collected by rfid technology. as we already discussed above, when rfid tag scanned, information saved in rfid tag is scanned by reader and then transmitted to an internet based database. if that data were available to the public, individuals and industry could make more reasonable decisions by analyzing them. we find another unbalanced power distribution case in china's waste management system. according to ruan and hu (2011) , the chinese government benefits most from the rfid system 24 (table 12) . we found, relying on a systematic review from 111 rfid studies, six key areas of rfid applications. specifically in the defense and security section, we addressed how military and airports/ports manage rfid systems to ensure security. we also found that rfid is effectively implemented in prison management and child protection programs. numerous governments have introduced rfid identification tools such as e-passport and e-id. rfid systems for waste management and street tree management are widely used from rich to poor countries. in healthcare and welfare delivery, rfid based smart cards have turned out to be very efficient. rfid is now being used to monitor counterfeit drugs. rfid has been applied to delivering service for the impaired and to trace infection. however, despite potential benefits from rfid applications, various unexpected problems arise. rfid can still involve technological deficiencies, especially in securing cryptography techniques, international standards of frequency, and storage capacity. rfid technology is not still enough to be efficient and effective in some areas (becker 2004 , jensen et al. 2007 ). tag and reader corruption can hurt transparency and security. privacy issues are still the most serious issues that rfid faces today (naumann and hogben 2008) . rfid itself can generate new unequal digital literacy and power distribution, especially in developing countries such as thailand and bangladesh. even the most latest innovative technologies, like rfid, do not have perfect answers to securing efficiency, effectiveness, convenience, and transparency. rather, rfid technology itself creates unexpected problems. it should be noted that democratic governance and trust is still important to technological innovation and policy issues arising from a rapid rfid diffusion. our systematic review is incomplete to discuss all of the rfid issues from technology, market and management, e-government, and legal aspects. further research on rfid diffusion and impact include not only various theoretical issues of but also legal and managerial problems. for instance, both qualitative and quantitative research is required to explore what factors are critical to adopt and implement new rfid technology in terms of governance and digital literacy. both micro and macro approaches with massive data are also required to identify how rfid improve not only organizational performance in government agencies and various industry sectors but also quality of our life. endnotes 1 for example, after serious attack by osama bin laden on 9/11, the american government decided to implement an rfid tag embedded e-passport and visa waiver program. the us government asked their member countries to implement e-passport by it is essential to understanding how a rapid diffusion and massive applications of rfid generate conflict or harmony among human behaviors, digital literacy, institutional rules, and technology. 4 us army and its allies could not only manage weapons and soldiers but also identify who was the enemy or not (castro and wamba, 2007) . this whole project of developing an rfid based identifying system was known as iff (identify friend of foe the new york city government also started an rfid e-seal pilot project in the new jersey port. once rfid read and scan the tag, it can identify the contents of the container box. also, the port of tacoma and seattle planned to adopt e-seals, made of metal bolts with embedded rfid devices to ensure its security (konsynski and smith 2003) . 8 calpatria prison, located in los angeles, adopted a prisoner monitoring system using rfid chips in 2000 as the very first pilot using rfid in prison management in united states (kim 2008) . according to regulations of calpatria prison, all the prison inmates were issued bracelets in which rfid chips were embedded. since the pilot project at the calpatria prison was successful, the local government let other prisons in los angeles adopt the innovative bracelet. the la county prison started to use a brand new bracelet in response to the state government's order; it is reported that through its adoption the prison could increase efficiency and effectiveness and decrease crimes occurred between inmates simultaneously (nicholas 2008). 9 for instance, city governments in the gifu and osaka prefecture provided rfid tags that can be attached in students' schoolbags to public elementary schools (ema and fujigaki, 2011) . similarly, in haewoondae beach, one of the most famous vacation spots in south korea, busan metropolitan city provides for parents rfid embedded bracelet that enables tracking exact location of their child by a smart phone (http://news.naver.com/ main/read.nhn?mode=lsd&mid=sec&sid1=102&oid=001&aid=0003353674). 10 this project began in 2002, but it took 3 years to fully implement for all 16 us passports (meingast et al. 2007) . the appearance of the e-passport is very similar to old passports, but woven into the paper of the passport, there is rfid tag that information about owner of the passport is included. information about nationality, sex, age, and so on is scanned, as airport staff members scan the passport through rfid reader (lorenc 2007 (kuo et al. 2004 ) with strong government support. 15 one peculiar characteristic of this system as compared to other systems is that visually impaired people are both the reader carrier and the service beneficiaries, simultaneously. generally in government service delivery using rfid technology, the service provider usually carries rfid tag readers and service beneficiaries usually act more passive roles by attaching rfid tags. but in this pakistani case, the service beneficiaries can identify objects around them by operating rfid tag reader they have. 16 the australian government passed legislation on mandatory use of rfid tags in the livestock industry, so hossain and quaddus (2014) categorized australian case as a very rare and special adoption case. according to trevarthen and michael (2007) 's case study, one of the australian farms where the rfid tag is implemented, farmers not only track the exact location of the cows but also check the condition, identify cows and even feed the new born cows automatically by using an rfid system. 17 usually people throw waste in various places. they may throw it away at their houses or at work places, like an office. since the rfid tag is only attached to a garbage can in house, it is impossible to track all types of waste throwing behaviors. inevitably, this shortage of storage capacity leads to selective waste collection monitoring. 18 the faraday cage is an object in metal; proponents of this device argue that faraday cage can prevent hacker's attack because electronic devices are prevented from passing through the object (ezovski et al. 2007) . but speculation about stability of this technology still remains. lorenc (2007) reported that if there is no additional technology, the faraday cage cannot preserve sensitive security. 19 as a matter of fact, there are two kinds of rfid tags, the passive tag and the active tag. these two tags provide owners with different benefits and liabilities. active tags are implemented by a power source, such as small battery. active tags are more efficient and safe in protecting privacy than passive tags, so sensitive organizations like military prefer active tags to passive tags. but ordinary consumers have less accessibility to active tags because active tags are much more expensive than passive ones (jensen et al. 2007 ). 20 according to laurie (2007) hwang et al. (2009) , technological deficiency enables hackers to engage in cloning, eavesdropping, replay attack, denial of service, forward security, tag tracing, individual data privacy, and data forging. specifically, the hacker can read the tag and then clone the tag (cloning), surreptitiously listen to all the communications between and the tag (eavesdropping), repeat or delay the message (replay attack), send large amount of message to break down rfid system (denial of service), compromise a tag (forward security), trace the exact location of the tag (tag tracing), find out shopping trend of the consumer (individual data privacy), and modify information saved on an rfid tag (data forging). in addition, numann and hogben (2008) categorized the privacy attacking cases more briefly. according to their research, the hacker can attack rfid tag in some ways. first, the attacker can open a connection to the chip and can steal the data inside (skimming). second, the attacker can intercept the communication between tag and reader (eavesdropping). last, the attacker can track the exact location of the tag or the person. 23 in thailand, most of the farms are trying to adopt an rfid system in farm management, but rfid technology is widening the gap between poor and rich farmers. poor farmers are usually less educated people who have hardly had any experience using digital technology like rfid. on the other hand, well-educated wealthy farmers face low entry barriers and easily adopt the technology. rich farmers armed with innovative technology not only make enormous fortunes by increasing efficiency but also by replacing poor labors with rfid embedded devices. according to the thailand ministry of labor (2006), most farm labors are afraid of being replaced. unfortunately, this phenomenon eventually correlates to a serious gap between rich and poor. as readers, tags, hardware, and so on, but in the long run cost of management will decrease. on the other hand, the waste industry could carry a very heavy debt. the waste contractors have to deal with expensive rfid tag rental and as well as the cost of construction simultaneously. although this situation is totally unfavorable for them, the waste management industry cannot resist to this policy because the chinese government is the entity which has made the use of rfid policy and set prices. the industry has no other choice but consent. anonymous authentication for rfid systems on rfid privacy with mutual authentication and tag corruption time measurement threatens privacy-friendly rfid authentication protocols rfid and corporate responsibility: hidden costs in rfid implementation a new game of leapfrog? rfid is rapidly changing the product-tracking process. some say the technologyonce costs drop-could displace bar-coding from traditional to modern fee systems an inside look at rfid technology using rfid technology in food produce traceability rfid-based hospital real-time patient management system how far can 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authors declare that they have no competing interests.authors' contributions kj and sl carried out a systematic literature review not only from not only technological point of view but also from social scientific point of view. both authors read and approved the final manuscript. key: cord-356353-e6jb0sex authors: fourcade, marion; johns, fleur title: loops, ladders and links: the recursivity of social and machine learning date: 2020-08-26 journal: theory soc doi: 10.1007/s11186-020-09409-x sha: doc_id: 356353 cord_uid: e6jb0sex machine learning algorithms reshape how people communicate, exchange, and associate; how institutions sort them and slot them into social positions; and how they experience life, down to the most ordinary and intimate aspects. in this article, we draw on examples from the field of social media to review the commonalities, interactions, and contradictions between the dispositions of people and those of machines as they learn from and make sense of each other. a fundamental intuition of actor-network theory holds that what we call "the social" is assembled from heterogeneous collections of human and non-human "actants." this may include human-made physical objects (e.g., a seat belt), mathematical formulas (e.g., financial derivatives), or elements from the natural world-such as plants, microbes, or scallops (callon 1984; latour 1989 latour , 1993 . in the words of bruno latour (2005, p . 5) sociology is nothing but the "tracing of associations." "tracing," however, is a rather capacious concept: socio-technical associations, including those involving non-human "actants," always crystallize in concrete places, structural positions, or social collectives. for instance, men are more likely to "associate" with video games than women (bulut 2020) . furthermore, since the connection between men and video games is known, men, women and institutions might develop strategies around, against, and through it. in other words, techno-social mediations are always both objective and subjective. they "exist … in things and in minds … outside and inside of agents" (wacquant 1989, p. 43) . this is why people think, relate, and fight over them, with them, and through them. all of this makes digital technologies a particularly rich terrain for sociologists to study. what, we may wonder, is the glue that holds things together at the automated interface of online and offline lives? what kind of subjectivities and relations manifest on and around social network sites, for instance? and how do the specific mediations these sites rely upon-be it hardware, software, human labor-concretely matter for the nature and shape of associations, including the most mundane? in this article, we are especially concerned with one particular kind of associative practice: a branch of artificial intelligence called machine learning. machine learning is ubiquitous on social media platforms and applications, where it is routinely deployed to automate, predict, and intervene in human and non-human behavior. generally speaking, machine learning refers to the practice of automating the discovery of rules and patterns from data, however dispersed and heterogeneous it may be, and drawing inferences from those patterns, without explicit programming. 1 using examples drawn from social media, we seek to understand the kinds of social dispositions that machine learning techniques tend to elicit or reinforce; how these social dispositions, in turn, help to support 1 according to pedro domingos's account, approaches to machine learning may be broken down into five "tribes." symbolists proceed through inverse deduction, starting with received premises or known facts and working backwards from those to identify rules that would allow those premises or facts to be inferred. the algorithm of choice for the symbolist is the decision tree. connectionists model machine learning on the brain, devising multilayered neural networks. their preferred algorithm is backpropagation, or the iterative adjustment of network parameters (initially set randomly) to try to bring that network's output closer and closer to a desired result (that is, towards satisfactory performance of an assigned task). evolutionaries canvas entire "populations" of hypotheses and devise computer programs to combine and swap these randomly, repeatedly assessing these combinations' "fitness" by comparing output to training data. their preferred kind of algorithm is the so-called genetic algorithm designed to simulate the biological process of evolution. bayesians are concerned with navigating uncertainty, which they do through probabilistic inference. bayesian models start with an estimate of the probability of certain outcomes (or a series of such estimates comprising one or more hypothetical bayesian network(s)) and then update these estimates as they encounter and process more data. analogizers focus on recognizing similarities within data and inferring other similarities on that basis. two of their go-to algorithms are the nearest-neighbor classifier and the support vector machine. the first makes predictions about how to classify unseen data by finding labeled data most similar to that unseen data (pattern matching). the second classifies unseen data into sets by plotting the coordinates of available or observed data according to their similarity to one another and inferring a decision boundary that would enable their distinction. machine learning implementations; and what kinds of social formations these interactions give rise to-all of these, indicatively rather than exhaustively. our arguments are fourfold. in the first two sections below, we argue that the accretive effects of social and machine learning are fostering an ever-more-prevalent hunger for data, and searching dispositions responsive to this hunger -"loops" in this paper's title. we then show how interactions between those so disposed and machine learning systems are producing new orders of stratification and association, or "ladders" and "links", and new stakes in the struggle in and around these orders. the penultimate section contends that such interactions, through social and mechanical infrastructures of machine learning, tend to engineer competition and psycho-social and economic dependencies conducive to evermore intensive data production, and hence to the redoubling of machine-learned stratification. finally, before concluding, we argue that machine learning implementations are inclined, in many respects, towards the degradation of sociality. consequently, new implementations are been called upon to judge and test the kind of solidaristic associations that machine learned systems have themselves produced, as a sort of second order learning process. our conclusion is a call to action: to renew, at the social and machine learning interface, fundamental questions of how to live and act together. the things that feel natural to us are not natural at all. they are the result of long processes of inculcation, exposure, and training that fall under the broad concept of "socialization" or "social learning." because the term "social learning" helps us better draw the parallel with "machine learning," we use it here to refer to the range of processes by which societies and their constituent elements (individuals, institutions, and so on) iteratively and interactively take on certain characteristics, and exhibit change-or not-over time. historically, the concept is perhaps most strongly associated with theories of how individuals, and specifically children, learn to feel, act, think, and relate to the world and to each other. theories of social learning and socialization have explained how people come to assume behaviors and attitudes in ways not well captured by a focus on internal motivation or conscious deliberation (miller and dollard 1941; bandura 1962; mauss 1979; elias 2000) . empirical studies have explored, for instance, how children learn speech and social grammar through a combination of direct experience (trying things out and experiencing rewarding or punishing consequences) and modeling (observing and imitating others, especially primary associates) (gopnik 2009 ). berger and luckmann (1966) , relying on the work of george herbert mead, discuss the learning process of socialization as one involving two stages: in the primary stage, children form a self by internalizing the attitudes of those others with whom they entertain an emotional relationship (typically their parents); in the secondary stage, persons-in-becoming learn to play appropriate roles in institutionalized subworlds, such as work or school. pierre bourdieu offers a similar approach to the formation of habitus. as a system of dispositions that "generates meaningful practices and meaning-giving perceptions," habitus takes shape through at least two types of social learning: "early, imperceptible learning" (as in the family) and "scholastic...methodical learning" (within educational and other institutions) (bourdieu 1984, pp. 170, 66) . organizations and collective entities also learn. for instance, scholars have used the concept of social learning to understand how states, institutions, and communities (at various scales) acquire distinguishing characteristics and assemble what appear to be convictions-in-common. ludwik fleck (2012 fleck ( [1935 ) and later thomas kuhn (1970) famously argued that science normally works through adherence to common ways of thinking about and puzzling over problems. relying explicitly on kuhn, hall (1993) makes a similar argument about elites and experts being socialized into long lasting political and policy positions. collective socialization into policy paradigms is one of the main drivers of institutional path dependency, as it makes it difficult for people to imagine alternatives. for our purposes, social learning encapsulates all those social processes-material, institutional, embodied, and symbolic-through which particular ways of knowing, acting, and relating to one another as aggregate and individuated actants are encoded and reproduced, or by which "[e]ach society [gains and sustains] its own special habits" (mauss 1979, p. 99) . "learning" in this context implies much more than the acquisition of skills and knowledge. it extends to adoption through imitation, stylistic borrowing, riffing, meme-making, sampling, acculturation, identification, modeling, prioritization, valuation, and the propagation and practice of informal pedagogies of many kinds. understood in this way, "learning" does not hinge decisively upon the embodied capacities and needs of human individuals because those capacities and needs are only ever realized relationally or through "ecological interaction," including through interaction with machines (foster 2018) . it is not hard to see why digital domains, online interactions, and social media networks have become a privileged site of observation for such processes (e.g., greenhow and robelia 2009 ), all the more so since socialization there often starts in childhood. this suggests that (contra dreyfus 1974) social and machine learning must be analyzed as co-productive of, rather than antithetical to, one another. machine learning is, similarly, a catch-all term-one encompassing a range of ways of programming computers or computing systems to undertake certain tasks (and satisfy certain performance thresholds) without explicitly directing the machines in question how to do so. instead, machine learning is aimed at having computers learn (more or less autonomously) from preexisting data, including the data output from prior attempts to undertake the tasks in question, and devise their own ways of both tackling those tasks and iteratively improving at them (alpaydin 2014) . implementations of machine learning now span all areas of social and economic life. machine learning "has been turning up everywhere, driven by exponentially growing mountains of [digital] data" (domingos 2015) . in this article, we take social media as one domain in which machine learning has been widely implemented. we do so recognizing that not all data analysis in which social media platforms engage is automated, and that those aspects that are automated do not necessarily involve machine learning. two points are important for our purposes: most "machines" must be trained, cleaned, and tested by humans in order to "learn." in implementations of machine learning on social media platforms, for instance, humans are everywhere "in the loop"-an immense, poorly paid, and crowdsourced workforce that relentlessly labels, rates, and expunges the "content" to be consumed (gillespie 2018; gray and suri 2019) . and yet, both supervised and unsupervised machines generate new patterns of interpretation, new ways of reading the social world and of intervening in it. any reference to machine learning throughout this article should be taken to encapsulate these "more-thanhuman" and "more-than-machine" qualities of machine learning. cybernetic feedback, data hunger, and meaning accretion analogies between human (or social) learning and machine-based learning are at least as old as artificial intelligence itself. the transdisciplinary search for common properties among physical systems, biological systems, and social systems, for instance, was an impetus for the macy foundation conferences on "circular causal and feedback mechanisms in biology and social systems" in the early days of cybernetics (1946) (1947) (1948) (1949) (1950) (1951) (1952) (1953) . in the analytical model developed by norbert wiener, "the concept of feedback provides the basis for the theoretical elimination of the frontier between the living and the non-living" (lafontaine 2007, p. 31) . just as the knowing and feeling person is dynamically produced through communication and interactions with others, the ideal cybernetic system continuously enriches itself from the reactions it causes. in both cases, life is irrelevant: what matters, for both living and inanimate objects, is that information circulates in an everrenewed loop. put another way, information/computation are "substrate independent" (tegmark 2017, p. 67 ). wiener's ambitions (and even more, the exaggerated claims of his posthumanist descendants, see, e.g., kurzweil 2000) were immediately met with criticism. starting in the 1960s, philosopher hubert dreyfus arose as one of the main critics of the claim that artificial intelligence would ever approach its human equivalent. likening the field to "alchemy" (1965), he argued that machines would never be able to replicate the unconscious processes necessary for the understanding of context and the acquisition of tacit skills (1974, 1979 )-the fact that, to quote michael polanyi (1966) , "we know more than we can tell." in other words, machines cannot develop anything like the embodied intuition that characterizes humans. furthermore, machines are poorly equipped to deal with the fact that all human learning is cultural, that is, anchored not in individual psyches but in collective systems of meaning and in sedimented, relational histories (vygotsky 1980; bourdieu 1990; durkheim 2001; hasse 2019) . is this starting to change today when machines successfully recognize images, translate texts, answer the phone, and write news briefs? some social and computational scientists believe that we are on the verge of a real revolution, where machine learning tools will help decode tacit knowledge, make sense of cultural repertoires, and understand micro-dynamics at the individual level (foster 2018 ). our concern is not, however, with confirming or refuting predictive claims about what computation can and cannot do to advance scholars' understanding of social life. rather, we are interested in how social and computational learning already interact. not only may social and machine learning usefully be compared, but they are reinforcing and shaping one another in practice. in those jurisdictions in which a large proportion of the population is interacting, communicating, and transacting ubiquitously online, social learning and machine learning share certain tendencies and dependencies. both practices rely upon and reinforce a pervasive appetite for digital input or feedback that we characterize as "data hunger." they also share a propensity to assemble insight and make meaning accretively-a propensity that we denote here as "world or meaning accretion." throughout this article, we probe the dynamic interaction of social and machine learning by drawing examples from one genre of online social contention and connection in which the pervasive influence of machine learning is evident: namely, that which occurs across social media channels and platforms. below we explain first how data hunger is fostered by both social and computing systems and techniques, and then how world or meaning accretion manifests in social and machine learning practices. these explanations set the stage for our subsequent discussion of how these interlocking dynamics operate to constitute and distribute power. data hunger: searching as a natural attitude as suggested earlier, the human person is the product of a long, dynamic, and never settled process of socialization. it is through this process of sustained exposure that the self (or the habitus, in pierre bourdieu's vocabulary) becomes adjusted to its specific social world. as bourdieu puts it, "when habitus encounters a social world of which it is the product, it is like a 'fish in water': it does not feel the weight of the water, and it takes the world about itself for granted" (bourdieu in wacquant 1989, p. 43) . the socialized self is a constantly learning self. the richer the process-the more varied and intense the interactions-the more "information" about different parts of the social world will be internalized and the more socially versatile-and socially effective, possibly-the outcome. (this is why, for instance, parents with means often seek to offer "all-round" training to their offspring [lareau 2011]) . machine learning, like social learning, is data hungry. "learning" in this context entails a computing system acquiring capacity to generalize beyond the range of data with which it has been presented in the training phase. "learning" is therefore contingent upon continuous access to data-which, in the kinds of cases that preoccupy us, means continuous access to output from individuals, groups, and "bots" designed to mimic individuals and groups. at the outset, access to data in enough volume and variety must be ensured to enable a particular learnermodel combination to attain desired accuracy and confidence levels. thereafter, data of even greater volume and variety is typically (though not universally) required if machine learning is to deliver continuous improvement, or at least maintain performance, on assigned tasks. the data hunger of machine learning interacts with that of social learning in important ways. engineers, particularly in the social media sector, have structured machine learning technologies not only to take advantage of vast quantities of behavioral traces that people leave behind when they interact with digital artefacts, but also to solicit more through playful or addictive designs and cybernetic feedback loops. the machine-learning self is not only encouraged to respond more, interact more, and volunteer more, but also primed to develop a new attitude toward the acquisition of information (andrejevic 2019, p.53). with the world's knowledge at her fingertips, she understands that she must "do her own research" about everything-be it religion, politics, vaccines, or cooking. her responsibility as a citizen is not only to learn the collective norms, but also to know how to search and learn so as to make her own opinion "for herself," or figure out where she belongs, or gain new skills. the development of searching as a "natural attitude" (schutz 1970 ) is an eminently social process of course: it often means finding the right people to follow or emulate (pariser 2011) , using the right keywords so that the search process yields results consistent with expectations (tripodi 2018) , or implicitly soliciting feedback from others in the form of likes and comments. the social media user also must extend this searching disposition to her own person: through cybernetic feedback, algorithms habituate her to search for herself in the data. this involves looking reflexively at her own past behavior so as to inform her future behavior. surrounded by digital devices, some of which she owns, she internalizes the all-seeing eye and learns to watch herself and respond to algorithmic demands (brubaker 2020 ). data hunger transmutes into self-hunger: an imperative to be digitally discernible in order to be present as a subject. this, of course, exacts a kind of self-producing discipline that may be eerily familiar to those populations that have always been under heavy institutional surveillance, such as the poor, felons, migrants, racial minorities (browne 2015; benjamin 2019) , or the citizens of authoritarian countries. it may also be increasingly familiar to users of health or car insurance, people living in a smart home, or anyone being "tracked" by their employer or school by virtue of simply using institutionally licensed it infrastructure. but the productive nature of the process is not a simple extension of what michel foucault called "disciplinary power" nor of the self-governance characteristic of "governmentality." rather than simply adjusting herself to algorithmic demands, the user internalizes the injunction to produce herself through the machine-learning-driven process itself. in that sense the machine-learnable self is altogether different from the socially learning, self-surveilling, or self-improving self. the point for her is not simply to track herself so she can conform or become a better version of herself; it is, instead, about the productive reorganization of her own experience and self-understanding. as such, it is generative of a new sense of selfhood-a sense of discovering and crafting oneself through digital means that is quite different from the "analog" means of self-cultivation through training and introspection. when one is learning from a machine, and in the process making oneself learnable by it, mundane activities undergo a subtle redefinition. hydrating regularly or taking a stroll are not only imperatives to be followed or coerced into. their actual phenomenology morphs into the practice of feeding or assembling longitudinal databases and keeping track of one's performance: "step counting" and its counterparts (schüll 2016; adams 2019) . likewise, what makes friendships real and defines their true nature is what the machine sees: usually, frequency of online interaction. for instance, snapchat has perfected the art of classifying-and ranking-relationships that way, so people are constantly presented with an ever-changing picture of their own dyadic connections, ranked from most to least important. no longer, contra foucault (1988) , is "permanent self-examination" crucial to self-crafting so much as attention to data-productive practices capable of making the self learnable and sustaining its searching process. to ensure one's learnability-and thereby one's selfhood-one must both feed and reproduce a hunger for data on and around the self. human learning is not only about constant, dynamic social exposure and world hunger, it is also about what we might call world or meaning accretion. 2 the self is constantly both unsettled (by new experiences) and settling (as a result of past experiences). people take on well institutionalized social roles (berger and luckmann 1966) . they develop habits, styles, personalities-a "system of dispositions" in bourdieu's vocabulary-by which they become adjusted to their social world. this system is made accretively, through the conscious and unconscious sedimentation of social experiences and interactions that are specific to the individual, and variable in quality and form. accretion here refers to a process, like the incremental build-up of sediment on a riverbank, involving the gradual accumulation of additional layers or matter. even when change occurs rapidly and unexpectedly, the ongoing process of learning how to constitute and comport oneself and perform as a social agent requires one to grapple with and mobilize social legacies, social memory, and pre-established social norms (goffman 1983) . the habitus, bourdieu would say, is both structured and structuring, historical and generative. social processes of impression formation offer a good illustration of how social learning depends upon accreting data at volume, irrespective of the value of any particular datum. the popular insight that first impressions matter and tend to endure is broadly supported by research in social psychology and social cognition (uleman and kressel 2013) . it is clear that impressions are formed cumulatively and that early-acquired information tends to structure and inform the interpretation of information later acquired about persons and groups encountered in social life (hamilton and sherman 1996) . this has also been shown to be the case in online environments (marlow et al. 2013) . in other words, social impressions are constituted by the incremental build-up of a variegated mass of data. machine learning produces insight in a somewhat comparable way-that is, accretively. insofar as machine learning yields outputs that may be regarded as meaningful (which is often taken to mean "useful" for the task assigned), then that "meaning" is assembled through the accumulation of "experience" or from iterative exposure to available data in sufficient volume, whether in the form of a stream or in a succession of batches. machine learning, like social learning, never produces insight entirely ab initio or independently of preexisting data. to say that meaning is made accretively in machine learning is not to say that machine learning programs are inflexible or inattentive to the unpredictable; far from it. all machine learning provides for the handling of the unforeseen; indeed, capacity to extend from the known to the unknown is what qualifies machine learning as "learning." moreover, a number of techniques are available to make machine learning systems robust in the face of "unknown unknowns" (that is, rare events not manifest in training data). nonetheless, machine learning does entail giving far greater weight to experience than to the event. 3 the more data that has been ingested by a machine learning system, the less revolutionary, reconfigurative force might be borne by any adventitious datum that it encounters. if, paraphrasing marx, one considers that people make their own history, but not in circumstances they choose for themselves, but rather in present circumstances given and inherited, then the social-machine learning interface emphasizes the preponderance of the "given and inherited" in present circumstances, far more than the potentiality for "mak[ing]" that may lie within them (marx 1996 (marx [1852 ). one example of the compound effect of social and automated meaning accretion in the exemplary setting to which we return throughout this articlesocial media-is the durability of negative reputation across interlocking platforms. for instance, people experience considerable difficulty in countering the effects of "revenge porn" online, reversing the harms of identity theft, or managing spoiled identities once they are digitally archived (lageson and maruna 2018) . as langlois and slane have observed, "[w]hen somebody is publicly shamed online, that shaming becomes a live archive, stored on servers and circulating through information networks via search, instant messaging, sharing, liking, copying, and pasting" (langlois and slane 2017) . in such settings, the data accretion upon which machine learning depends for the development of granular insights-and, on social media platforms, associated auctioning and targeting of advertising-compounds the cumulative, sedimentary effect of social data, making negative impressions generated by "revenge porn," or by one's online identity having been fraudulently coopted, hard to displace or renew. the truth value of later, positive data may be irrelevant if enough negative data has accumulated in the meantime. data hunger and the accretive making of meaning are two aspects of the embedded sociality of machine learning and of the "mechanical" dimensions of social learning. together, they suggest modes of social relation, conflict, and action that machine learning systems may nourish among people on whom those systems bear, knowingly or unknowingly. this has significant implications for social and economic inequality, as we explore below. what are the social consequences of machine learning's signature hunger for diverse, continuous, ever more detailed and "meaningful" data and the tendency of many automated systems to hoard historic data from which to learn? in this section, we discuss three observable consequences of data hunger and meaning accretion. we show how these establish certain non-negotiable preconditions for social inclusion; we highlight how they fuel the production of digitally-based forms of social stratification and association; and we specify some recurrent modes of relation fostered thereby. all three ordering effects entail the uneven distribution of power and resources and all three play a role in sustaining intersecting hierarchies of race, class, gender, and other modes of domination and axes of inequality. machine learning's data appetite and the "digestive" or computational abilities that attend it are often sold as tools for the increased organizational efficiency, responsiveness, and inclusiveness of societies and social institutions. with the help of machine learning, the argument goes, governments and non-governmental organizations develop an ability to render visible and classify populations that are traditionally unseen by standard data infrastructures. moreover, those who have historically been seen may be seen at a greater resolution, or in a more finelygrained, timely, and difference-attentive way. among international organizations, too, there is much hope that enhanced learning along these lines might result from the further utilization of machine learning capacities (johns 2019) . for instance, machine learning, deployed in fingerprint, iris, or facial recognition, or to nourish sophisticated forms of online identification, is increasingly replacing older, document-based ones (torpey 2018 )-and transforming the very concept of citizenship in the process (cheney-lippold 2016). whatever the pluses and minuses of "inclusiveness" in this mode, it entails a major infrastructural shift in the way that social learning takes place at the state and inter-state level, or how governments come to "know" their polities. governments around the world are exploring possibilities for gathering and analysing digital data algorithmically, to supplement-and eventually, perhaps, supersede-household surveys, telephone surveys, field site visits, and other traditional data collection methods. this devolves the process of assembling and representing a polity, and understanding its social and economic condition, down to agents outside the scope of public administration: commercial satellite operators (capturing satellite image data being used to assess a range of conditions, including agricultural yield and poverty), supermarkets (gathering scanner data, now widely used in cpi generation), and social media platforms. if official statistics (and associated data gathering infrastructures and labor forces) have been key to producing the modern polity, governmental embrace of machine learning capacities signals a change in ownership of that means of production. social media has become a key site for public and private parties-police departments, immigration agencies, schools, employers and insurers among others-to gather intelligence about the social networks of individuals, their health habits, their propensity to take risks or the danger they might represent to the public, to an organization's bottom line or to its reputation (trottier 2012; omand 2017; bousquet 2018; amoore 2020; stark 2020) . informational and power asymmetries characteristic of these institutions are often intensified in the process. this is notwithstanding the fact that automated systems' effects may be tempered by manual work-arounds and other modes of resistance within bureaucracies, such as the practices of frontline welfare workers intervening in automated systems in the interests of their clients, and strategies of foot-dragging and data obfuscation by legal professionals confronting predictive technologies in criminal justice (raso 2017; brayne and christin 2020) . the deployment of machine learning to the ends outlined in the foregoing paragraph furthers the centrality of data hungry social media platforms to the distribution of all sorts of economic and social opportunities and scarce public resources. at every scale, machine-learning-powered corporations are becoming indispensable mediators of relations between the governing and the governed (a transition process sharply accelerated by the covid-19 pandemic). this invests them with power of a specific sort: the power of "translating the images and concerns of one world into that of another, and then disciplining or maintaining that translation in order to stabilize a powerful network" and their own influential position within it (star 1990, p. 32) . the "powerful network" in question is society, but it is heterogeneous, comprising living and non-living, automated and organic elements: a composite to which we can give the name "society" only with impropriety (that is, without adherence to conventional, anthropocentric understandings of the term). for all practical purposes, much of social life already is digital. this insertion of new translators, or repositioning of old translators, within the circuits of society is an important socio-economic transformation in its own right. and the social consequences of this new "inclusion" are uneven in ways commonly conceived in terms of bias, but not well captured by that term. socially disadvantaged populations are most at risk of being surveilled in this way and profiled into new kinds of "measurable types" (cheney-lippold 2017). in addition, social media user samples are known to be non-representative, which might further unbalance the burden of surveillant attention. (twitter users, for instance, are skewed towards young, urban, minority individuals (murthy et al. 2016 ).) consequently, satisfaction of data hunger and practices of automated meaning accretion may come at the cost of increased social distrust, fostering strategies of posturing, evasion, and resistance among those targeted by such practices. these reactions, in turn, may undermine the capacity of state agents to tap into social data-gathering practices, further compounding existing power and information asymmetries (harkin 2015) . for instance, sarah brayne (2014) finds that government surveillance via social media and other means encourages marginalized communities to engage in "system avoidance," jeopardizing their access to valuable social services in the process. finally, people accustomed to being surveilled will not hesitate to instrumentalize social media to reverse monitor their relationships with surveilling institutions, for instance by taping public interactions with police officers or with social workers and sharing them online (byrne et al. 2019) . while this kind of resistance might further draw a wedge between vulnerable populations and those formally in charge of assisting and protecting them, it has also become a powerful aspect of grassroots mobilization in and around machine learning and techno-social approaches to institutional reform (benjamin 2019) . in all the foregoing settings, aspirations for greater inclusiveness, timeliness, and accuracy of data representation-upon which machine learning is predicated and which underlie its data hunger-produce newly actionable social divisions. the remainder of this article analyzes some recurrent types of social division that machine learning generates, and types of social action and experience elicited thereby. there is, of course, no society without ordering-and no computing either. social order, like computing order, comes in many shapes and varieties but generally "the gap between computation and human problem solving may be much smaller than we think" (foster 2018, p. 152) . in what follows, we cut through the complexity of this socialcomputational interface by distinguishing between two main ideal types of classification: ordinal (organized by judgments of positionality, priority, probability or value along one particular dimension) and nominal (organized by judgments of difference and similarity) (fourcade 2016) . social processes of ordinalization in the analog world might include exams, tests, or sports competitions: every level allows one to compete for the next level and be ranked accordingly. in the digital world, ordinal scoring might take the form of predictive analytics-which, in the case of social media, typically means the algorithmic optimization of online verification and visibility. by contrast, processes of nominalization include, in the analog world, various forms of homophily (the tendency of people to associate with others who are similar to them in various ways) and institutional sorting by category. translated for the digital world, these find an echo in clustering technologies-for instance a recommendation algorithm that works by finding the "nearest neighbors" whose taste is similar to one's own, or one that matches people based on some physical characteristic or career trajectory. the difference between ordinal systems and nominal systems maps well onto the difference between bayesian and analogical approaches to machine learning, to reference pedro domingos's (2015) useful typology. it is, however, only at the output or interface stage that these socially ubiquitous machine learning orderings become accessible to experience. what does it mean, and what does it feel like, to live in a society that is regulated through machine learning systems-or rather, where machine learning systems are interacting productively with social ordering systems of an ordinal and nominal kind? in this section, we identify some new, or newly manifest, drivers of social structure that emerge in machine learning-dominated environments. let us begin with the ordinal effects of these technologies (remembering that machine learning systems comprise human as well as non-human elements). as machine learning systems become more universal, the benefits of inclusion now depend less on access itself, and more on one's performance within each system and according to its rules. for instance, visibility on social media depends on "engagement," or how important each individual is to the activity of the platform. if one does not post frequently and consistently, comment or message others on facebook or instagram, or if others do not interact with one's posts, one's visibility to them diminishes quickly. if one is not active on the dating app tinder, one cannot expect one's profile to be shown to prospective suitors. similarly, uber drivers and riders rank one another on punctuality, friendliness, and the like, but uber (the company) ranks both drivers and riders on their behavior within the system, from canceling too many rides to failing to provide feedback. uber egypt states on its website: "the rating system is designed to give mutual feedback. if you never rate your drivers, you may see your own rating fall." even for those willing to incur the social costs of disengagement, opting out of machine learning may not be an option. failure to respond to someone's tag, or to like their photo, or otherwise maintain data productivity, and one might be dropped from their network, consciously or unconsciously, a dangerous proposition in a world where self-worth has become closely associated with measures of network centrality or social influence. as bucher has observed, "abstaining from using a digital device for one week does not result in disconnection, or less data production, but more digital data points … to an algorithm, … absence provides important pieces of information" (bucher 2020, p. 2) . engagement can also be forced on non-participants by the actions of other users-through tagging, rating, commenting, and endorsing, for instance (casemajor et al. 2015) . note that none of this is a scandal or a gross misuse of the technology. on the contrary, this is what any system looking for efficiency and relevance is bound to look like. but any ordering system that acts on people will generate social learning, including action directed at itself in return. engagement, to feed data hunger and enable the accretion of "meaningful" data from noise, is not neutral, socially or psychologically. the constant monitoring and management of one's social connections, interactions, and interpellations places a nontrivial burden on one's life. the first strategy of engagement is simply massive time investment, to manage the seemingly ever-growing myriad of online relationships (boyd 2015). to help with the process, social media platforms now bombard their users constantly with notifications, making it difficult to stay away and orienting users' behavior toward mindless and unproductive "grinding" (for instance, repetitively "liking" every post in their feed). but even this intensive "nudging" is often not enough. otherwise, how can we explain the fact that a whole industry of social media derivatives has popped up, to help people optimize their behavior vis-a-vis the algorithm, manage their following, and gain an edge so that they can climb the priority order over other, less savvy users? now users need to manage two systems (if not more): the primary one and the (often multiple) analytics apps that help improve and adjust their conduct in it. in these ways, interaction with machine learning systems tends to encourage continuous effort towards ordinal self-optimization. however, efforts of ordinal optimization, too, may soon become useless: as marilyn strathern (citing british economist charles goodhardt) put it, "when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure" (strathern 1997, p. 308) . machine learning systems do not reward time spent on engagement without regard to the impact of that engagement across the network as a whole. now, in desperation, those with the disposable income to do so may turn to money as the next saving grace to satisfy the imperative to produce "good" data at volume and without interruption, and reap social rewards for doing so. the demand for maximizing one's data productivity and machine learning measurability is there, so the market is happy to oblige. with a monthly subscription to a social media platform, or even a social media marketing service, users can render themselves more visible. this possibility, and the payoffs of visibility, are learned socially, both through the observation and mimicry of models (influencers, for instance) or through explicit instruction (from the numerous online and offline guides to maximizing "personal brand"). one can buy oneself instagram or twitter followers. social media scheduling tools, such as tweetdeck and post planner, help one to plan ahead to try to maximize engagement with one's postings, including by strategically managing their release across time zones. a paying account on linkedin dramatically improves a user's chance of being seen by other users. the same is true of tinder. if a user cannot afford the premium subscription, the site still offers them one-off "boosts" for $1.99 that will send their profile near the top of their potential matches' swiping queue for 30 min. finally, wealthier users can completely outsource the process of online profile management to someone else (perhaps recruiting a freelance social media manager through an online platform like upwork, the interface of which exhibits ordinal features like client ratings and job success scores). in all the foregoing ways, the inclusionary promise of machine learning has shifted toward more familiar sociological terrain, where money and other vectors of domination determine outcomes. in addition to economic capital, distributions of social and cultural capital, as well as traditional ascriptive characteristics, such as race or gender, play an outsized role in determining likeability and other outcomes of socially learned modes of engagement with machine learning systems. for instance, experiments with mechanical turkers have shown that being attractive increases the likelihood of appearing trustworthy on twitter, but being black creates a contrarian negative effect (groggel et al. 2019) . in another example, empirical studies of social media use among those bilingual in hindi and english have observed that positive modes of social media engagement tend to be expressed in english, with negative emotions and profanity more commonly voiced in hindi. one speculative explanation for this is that english is the language of "aspiration" in india or offers greater prospects for accumulating social and cultural capital on social media than hindi (rudra et al. 2016) . in short, wellestablished off-platform distinctions and social hierarchies shape the extent to which on-platform identities and forms of materialized labor will be defined as valuable and value-generating in the field of social media. in summary, ordinality is a necessary feature of all online socio-technical systems and it demands a relentless catering to one's digital doppelgängers' interactions with others and with algorithms. to be sure, design features tend to make systems addictive and feed this sentiment of oppression (boyd 2015). what really fuels both, however, is the work of social ordering and the generation of ordinal salience by the algorithm. in the social world, any type of scoring, whether implicit or explicit, produces tremendous amounts of status anxiety and often leads to productive resources (time and money) being diverted in an effort to better one's odds (espeland and sauder 2016; mau 2019) . 4 those who are short on both presumably fare worse, not only because that makes them less desirable in the real world, but also because they cannot afford the effort and expense needed to overcome their disadvantage in the online world. the very act of ranking thus both recycles old forms of social inequality and also creates new categories of undesirables. as every teenager knows, those who have a high ratio of following to followers exhibit low social status or look "desperate." in this light, jeff bezos may be the perfect illustration of intertwining between asymmetries of real world and virtual world power: the founder and ceo of amazon and currently the richest man in the world has 1.4 million followers on twitter, but follows only one person: his ex-wife. ordinalization has implications not just for hierarchical positioning, but also for belonging-an important dimension of all social systems (simmel 1910) . ordinal stigma (the shame of being perceived as inferior) often translates into nominal stigma, or the shame of non-belonging. not obtaining recognition (in the form of "likes" or "followers"), in return for one's appreciation of other people, can be a painful experience, all the more since it is public. concern to lessen the sting of this kind of algorithmic cruelty is indeed why, presumably, tinder has moved from a simple elo or desirability score (which depends on who has swiped to indicate liking for the person in question, and their own scores, an ordinal measure) to a system that relies more heavily on type matching (a nominal logic), where people are connected based on taste similarity as expressed through swiping, sound, and image features (carman 2019) . in addition to employing machine learning to rank users, most social media platforms also use forms of clustering and type matching, which allow them to group users according to some underlying similarity (analogical machine learning in domingos's terms). this kind of computing is just as hungry for data as those we discuss above, but its social consequences are different. now the aim is trying to figure a person out or at least to amplify and reinforce a version of that person that appears in some confluence of data exhaust within the system in question. that is, in part, the aim of the algorithm (or rather, of the socio-technical system from which the algorithm emanates) behind facebook's news feed (cooper 2020) . typically, the more data one feeds the algorithm, the better its prediction, the more focused the offering, and the more homogeneous the network of associations forged through receipt and onward sharing of similar offerings. homogenous networks may, in turn, nourish better-and more saleablemachine learning programs. the more predictable one is, the better the chances that one will be seen-and engaged-by relevant audiences. being inconsistent or too frequently turning against type in data-generative behaviors can make it harder for a machine learning system to place and connect a person associatively. in both offline and online social worlds (not that the two can easily be disentangled), deviations from those expectations that data correlations tend to yield are often harshly punished by verbal abuse, dis-association, or both. experiences of being so punished, alongside experiences of being rewarded by a machine learning interface for having found a comfortable group (or a group within which one has strong correlations), can lead to some form of social closure, a desire to "play to type." as one heavy social media user told us, "you want to mimic the behavior [and the style] of the people who are worthy of your likes" in the hope that they will like you in return. that's why social media have been variously accused of generating "online echo chambers" and "filter bubbles," and of fueling polarization (e.g., pariser 2011). on the other hand, being visible to the wrong group is often a recipe for being ostracized, "woke-shamed," "called-out," or even "canceled" (yar and bromwich 2019) . in these and other ways, implementations of machine learning in social media complement and reinforce certain predilections widely learned socially. in many physical, familial, political, legal, cultural, and institutional environments, people learn socially to feel suspicious of those they experience as unfamiliar or fundamentally different from themselves. there is an extensive body of scholarly work investigating social rules and procedures through which people learn to recognize, deal with, and distance themselves from bodies that they read as strange and ultimately align themselves with and against pre-existing nominal social groupings and identities (ahmed 2013; goffman 1963) . this is vital to the operation of the genre of algorithm known as a recommendation algorithm, a feature of all social media platforms. on facebook, such an algorithm generates a list of "people you may know" and on twitter, a "who to follow" list. recommendation algorithms derive value from this social learning of homophily (mcpherson et al. 2001) . for one, it makes reactions to automated recommendations more predictable. recommendation algorithms also reinforce this social learning by minimizing social media encounters with identities likely to be read as strange or nonassimilable, which in turn improves the likelihood of their recommendations being actioned. accordingly, it has been observed that the profile pictures of accounts recommended on tiktok tend to exhibit similarities-physical and racial-to the profile image of the initial account holder to whom those recommendations are presented (heilweil 2020) . in that sense, part of what digital technologies do is organize the online migration of existing offline associations. but it would be an error to think that machine learning only reinforces patterns that exist otherwise in the social world. first, growing awareness that extreme type consistency may lead to online boredom, claustrophobia, and insularity (crawford 2009 ) has led platforms to experiment with and implement various kinds of exploratory features. second, people willfully sort themselves online in all sorts of non-overlapping ways: through twitter hashtags, group signups, click and purchasing behavior, social networks, and much more. the abundance of data, which is a product of the sheer compulsion that people feel to self-index and classify others (harcourt 2015; brubaker 2020) , might be repurposed to revisit common off-line classifications. categories like marriage or citizenship can now be algorithmically parsed and tested in ways that wield power over people. for instance, advertisers' appetite for information about major life events has spurred the application of predictive analytics to personal relationships. speech recognition, browsing patterns, and email and text messages can be mined for information about, for instance, the likelihood of relationships enduring or breaking up (dickson 2019) . similarly, the us national security agency measures people's national allegiance from how they search on the internet, redefining rights in the process (cheney-lippold 2016). even age-virtual rather than chronological-can be calculated according to standards of mental and physical fitness and vary widely depending on daily performance (cheney-lippold 2017, p. 97). quantitatively measured identities-algorithmic gender, ethnicity, or sexuality-do not have to correspond to discrete nominal types anymore. they can be fully ordinalized along a continuum of intensity (fourcade 2016) . the question now is: how much of a us citizen are you, really? how latinx? how gay? 5 in a machine learning world, where each individual can be represented as a bundle of vectors, everyone is ultimately a unique combination, a category of one, however "precisely inaccurate" that category's digital content may be (mcfarland and mcfarland 2015) . changes in market research from the 1970s to the 1990s, aimed at tracking consumer mobility and aspiration through attention to "psychographic variables," constitute a pre-history, of sorts, for contemporary machine learning practices in commercial settings (arvidsson 2004; gandy 1993; fourcade and healy 2017; lauer 2017) . however, the volume and variety of variables now digitally discernible mean that the latter have outstripped the former exponentially. machine learning techniques have the potential to reveal unlikely associations, no matter how small, that may have been invisible, or muted, in the physically constraining geography of the offline world. repurposed for intervention, disparate data can be assembled to form new, meaningful types and social entities. paraphrasing donald mackenzie (2006), machine learning is an "engine, not a camera." christopher wylie, a former lead scientist at the defunct firm cambridge analytica-which famously matched fraudulently obtained facebook data with consumer data bought from us data brokers and weaponized them in the context of the 2016 us presidential election-recalls the experience of searching for-and discovering-incongruous social universes: "[we] spent hours exploring random and weird combinations of attributes.… one day we found ourselves wondering whether there were donors to anti-gay churches who also shopped at organic food stores. we did a search of the consumer data sets we had acquired for the pilot and i found a handful of people whose data showed that they did both. i instantly wanted to meet one of these mythical creatures." after identifying a potential target in fairfax county, he discovered a real person who wore yoga pants, drank kombucha, and held fire-andbrimstone views on religion and sexuality. "how the hell would a pollster classify this woman?" only with the benefit of machine learning-and associated predictive analytics-could wylie and his colleagues claim capacity to microtarget such anomalous, alloyed types, and monetize that capacity (wylie 2019, pp. 72-74) . to summarize, optimization makes social hierarchies, including new ones, and pattern recognition makes measurable types and social groupings, including new ones. in practice, ordinality and nominality often work in concert, both in the offline and in the online worlds (fourcade 2016 ). as we have seen, old categories (e.g., race and gender) may reassert themselves through new, machine-learned hierarchies, and new, machine-learned categories may gain purchase in all sorts of offline hierarchies (micheli et al. 2018; madden et al. 2017) . this is why people strive to raise their digital profiles and to belong to those categories that are most valued there (for instance "verified" badges or recognition as a social media "influencer"). conversely, patternmatching can be a strategy of optimization, too: people will carefully manage their affiliations, for instance, so as to raise their score-aligning themselves with the visible and disassociating themselves from the underperforming. we examine these complex interconnections below and discuss the dispositions and sentiments that they foster and nourish. it should be clear by now that, paraphrasing latour (2013, p. 307), we can expect little from the "social explanation" of machine learning; machine learning is "its own explanation." the social does not lie "behind" it, any more than machine learning algorithms lie "behind" contemporary social life. social relations fostered by the automated instantiation of stratification and association-including in social mediaare diverse, algorithmic predictability notwithstanding. also, they are continually shifting and unfolding. just as latour (2013, p. 221) reminds us not to confuse technology with the objects it leaves in its wake, it is important not to presume the "social" of social media to be fixed by its automated operations. we can, nevertheless, observe certain modes of social relation and patterns of experience that tend to be engineered into the ordinal and nominal orders that machine learning (re)produces. in this section, we specify some of these modes of relation, before showing how machine learning can both reify and ramify them. our argument here is with accounts of machine learning that envisage social and political stakes and conflicts as exogenous to the practice-considerations to be addressed through ex ante ethics-by-design initiatives or ex post audits or certifications-rather than fundamental to machine learning structures and operations. machine learning is social learning, as we highlighted above. in this section, we examine further the kinds of sociality that machine learning makes-specifically those of competitive struggle and dependency-before turning to prospects for their change. social scientists' accounts of modes of sociality online are often rendered in terms of the antagonism between competition and cooperation immanent in capitalism (e.g., fuchs 2007 ). this is not without justification. after all, social media platforms are sites of social struggle, where people seek recognition: to be seen, first and foremost, but also to see-to be a voyeur of themselves and of others (harcourt 2015; brubaker 2020) . in that sense, platforms may be likened to fields in the bourdieusian sense, where people who invest in platform-specific stakes and rules of the game 6 are best positioned to accumulate platform-specific forms of capital (e.g., likes, followers, views, retweets, etc.) (levina and arriaga 2014) . some of this capital may transfer to other platforms through built-in technological bridges (e.g., between facebook and instagram), or undergo a process of "conversion" when made efficacious and profitable in other fields (bourdieu 2011; fourcade and healy 2017) . for instance, as social status built online becomes a path to economic accumulation in its own right (by allowing payment in the form of advertising, sponsorships, or fans' gifts), new career aspirations are attached to social media platforms. according to a recent and well-publicized survey, "vlogger/youtuber" has replaced "astronaut" as the most enviable job for american and british children (berger 2019) . in a more mundane manner, college admissions offices or prospective employers increasingly expect one's presentation of self to include the careful management of one's online personality-often referred to as one's "brand" (e.g., sweetwood 2017) . similarly, private services will aggregate and score any potentially relevant information (and highlight "red flags") about individuals across platforms and throughout the web, for a fee. in this real-life competition, digitally produced ordinal positions (e.g., popularity, visibility, influence, social network location) and nominal associations (e.g., matches to advertised products, educational institutions, jobs) may be relevant. machine learning algorithms within social media both depend on and reinforce competitive striving within ordinal registers of the kind highlighted above-or in bourdieu's terms, competitive struggles over field-specific forms of capital. as georg simmel observed, the practice of competing socializes people to compete; it "compels the competitor" (simmel 2008 (simmel [1903 ). socially learned habits of competition are essential to maintain data-productive engagement with social media platforms. for instance, empirical studies suggest that motives for "friending" and following others on social media include upward and downward social comparison (ouwerkerk and johnson 2016; vogel et al. 2014) . social media platforms' interfaces then reinforce these social habits of comparison by making visible and comparable public tallies of the affirmative attention that particular profiles and posts have garnered: "[b]eing social in social media means accumulating accolades: likes, comments, and above all, friends or followers" (gehl 2015, p. 7) . in this competitive "[l]ike economy," "user interactions are instantly transformed into comparable forms of data and presented to other users in a way that generates more traffic and engagement" (gerlitz and helmond 2013, p. 1349 )-engagement from which algorithms can continuously learn in order to enhance their own predictive capacity and its monetization through sales of advertising. at the same time, the distributed structure of social media (that is, its multinodal and cumulative composition) also fosters forms of cooperation, gift exchange, redistribution, and reciprocity. redistributive behavior on social media platforms manifests primarily in a philanthropic mode rather than in the equitypromoting mode characteristic of, for instance, progressive taxation. 7 examples include practices like the #followfriday or #ff hashtag on twitter, a spontaneous form of redistributive behavior that emerged in 2009 whereby "micro-influencers" started actively encouraging their own followers to follow others. 8 insofar as those so recommended are themselves able to monetize their growing follower base through product endorsement and content creation for advertisers, this redistribution of social capital serves, at least potentially, as a redistribution of economic capital. even so, to the extent that purportedly "free" gifts, in the digital economy and elsewhere, tend to be reciprocated (fourcade and kluttz 2020) , such generosity might amount to little more than an effective strategy of burnishing one's social media "brand," enlarging one's follower base, and thereby increasing one's store of accumulated social (and potentially economic) capital. 9 far from being antithetical to competitive relations on social media, redistributive practices in a gift-giving mode often complement them (mauss 1990) . social media cooperation can also be explicitly anti-social, even violent (e.g., patton et al. 2019) . in these and other ways, digitized sociality is often at once competitive and cooperative, connective and divisive (zukin and papadantonakis 2017) . whether it is enacted in competitive, redistributive or other modes, sociality on social media is nonetheless emergent and dynamic. no wonder that bruno latour was the social theorist of choice when we started this investigation. but-as latour (2012) himself pointed out-gabriel tarde might have been a better choice. what makes social forms cohere are behaviors of imitation, counter-7 an exception to this observation would be social media campaigns directed at equitable goals, such as campaigns to increase the prominence and influence of previously under-represented groups-womenalsoknowstuff and pocalsoknowstuff twitter handles, hashtags, and feeds, for example. 8 recommendation in this mode has been shown to increase recommended users' chance of being followed by a factor of roughly two or three compared to a recommendation-free scenario (garcia gavilanes et al. 2013). 9 for instance, lewis (2018, p. 5) reports that "how-to manuals for building influence on youtube often list collaborations as one of the most effective strategies." imitation, and influence (tarde 1903) . social media, powered by trends and virality, mimicry and applause, parody and mockery, mindless "grinding" and tagging, looks quintessentially tardian. even so, social media does not amount simply to transfering online practices of imitation naturally occuring offline. the properties of machine learning highlighted above-cybernetic feedback; data hunger; accretive meaning-making; ordinal and nominal ordering-lend social media platforms and interfaces a distinctive, compulsive, and calculating quality-engineering a relentlessly "participatory subjectivity" (bucher 2020, p.88; boyd 2015) . how one feels and how one acts when on social media is not just an effect of subjective perceptions and predispositions. it is also an effect of the software and hardware that mediate the imitative (or counter-imitative) process itself-and of the economic rationale behind their implementation. we cannot understand the structural features and phenomenological nature of digital technologies in general, and of social media in particular, if we do not understand the purposes for which they were designed. the simple answer, of course, is that data hunger and meaning accretion are essential to the generation of profit (zuboff 2019), whether profit accrues from a saleable power to target advertising, commercializable developments in artificial intelligence, or by other comparable means. strategies for producing continuous and usable data flows to profit-making ends vary, but tend to leverage precisely the social-machine learning interface that we highlighted above. social media interfaces tend to exhibit design features at both the back-and front-end that support user dependency and enable its monetization. for example, the "infinite scroll," which allows users to swipe down a page endlessly (without clicking or refreshing) rapidly became a staple of social media apps after its invention in 2006, giving them an almost hypnotic feel and maximizing the "time on device" and hence users' availability to advertisers (andersson 2018) . similarly, youtube's recommendation algorithm was famously optimized to maximize users' time on site, so as to serve them more advertisements (levin 2017; roose 2019) . social media platforms also employ psycho-social strategies to this end, including campaigns to draw people in by drumming up reciprocity and participation-the notifications, the singling out of trends, the introduction of "challenges"-and more generally the formation of habits through gamification. prominent critics of social media, such as tristan harris (originally from google) and sandy parakilas (originally from facebook), have denounced apps that look like "slot machines" and use a wide range of intermittent rewards to keep users hooked and in the (instagram, tiktok, facebook, …) zone, addicted "by design" (schüll 2012; fourcade 2017) . importantly, this dependency has broader social ramifications than may be captured by a focus on individual unfreedom. worries about the "psychic numbing" of the liberal subject (zuboff 2019) , or the demise of the sovereign consumer, do not preoccupy us so much as the ongoing immiseration of the many who "toil on the invisible margins of the social factory" (morozov 2019) or whose data traces make them the targets of particularly punitive extractive processes. dependencies engineered into social media interfaces help, in combination with a range of other structural factors, to sustain broader economic dependencies, the burdens and benefits of which land very differently across the globe (see, e.g., taylor and broeders 2015) . in this light, the question of how amenable these dynamics may be to social change becomes salient for many. recent advances in digital technology are often characterized as revolutionary. however, as well as being addictive, the combined effect of machine learning and social learning may be as conducive to social inertia as it is to social change. data hunger on the part of mechanisms of both social learning and machine learning, together with their dependence on data accretion to make meaning, encourage replication of interface features and usage practices known to foster continuous, data-productive engagement. significant shifts in interface design-and in the social learning that has accreted around use of a particular interface-risk negatively impacting data-productive engagement. one study of users' reactions to changes in the facebook timeline suggested that "major interface changes induce psychological stress as well as technology-related stress" (wisniewski et al. 2014) . in recognition of these sensitivities, those responsible for social media platforms' interfaces tend to approach their redesign incrementally, so as to promote continuity rather than discontinuity in user behaviour. the emphasis placed on continuity in social media platform design may foster tentativeness in other respects as well, as we discuss in the next section. at the same time, social learning and machine learning, in combination, are not necessarily inimical to social change. machine learning's associative design and propensity to virality have the potential to loosen or unsettle social orders rapidly. and much as the built environment of the new urban economy can be structured to foster otherwise unlikely encounters (hanson and hillier 1987; zukin 2020) , so digital space can be structured to similar effect. for example, the popular chinese social media platform wechat has three features, enabled by machine learning, that encourage openended, opportunistic interactions between random users-shake, drift bottle, and people nearby-albeit, in the case of people nearby, random users within one's immediate geographic vicinity. (these are distinct from the more narrow, instrumental range of encounters among strangers occasioned by platforms like tinder, the sexual tenor of which are clearly established in advance, with machine learning parameters set accordingly.) qualitative investigation of wechat use and its impact on chinese social practices has suggested that wechat challenges some existing social practices, while reinforcing others. it may also foster the establishment of new social practices, some defiant of prevailing social order. for instance, people report interacting with strangers via wechat in ways they normally would not, including shifting to horizontallystructured interactions atypical of chinese social structures offline (wang et al. 2016 ). this is not necessarily unique to wechat. the kinds of ruptures and reorderings engineered through machine learning do not, however, create equal opportunities for value creation and accumulation, any more than they are inherently liberating or democratizing. social media channels have been shown to serve autocratic goals of "regime entrenchment" quite effectively (gunitsky 2015) . 10 likewise, they serve economic goals of data accumulation and concentration (zuboff 2019) . machine-learned sociality lives on corporate servers and must be 10 with regard to wechat in china and vkontakte in russia, as well as to government initiatives in egypt, the ukraine, and elsewhere, seva gunitsky (2015) highlights a number of reasons why, and means by which, nondemocratic regimes have proactively sought (with mixed success) to co-opt social media, rather than simply trying to suppress it, in order to try to ensure central government regimes' durability. meticulously "programmed" (bucher 2018) to meet specific economic objectives. as such, it is both an extremely lucrative proposition for some and (we have seen) a socially dangerous one for many. it favors certain companies, their shareholders and executives, while compounding conditions of social dependency and economic precarity for most other people. finally, with its content sanitized by underground armies of ghost workers (gray and suri 2019), it is artificial in both a technical and literal sense-"artificially artificial," in the words of jeff bezos (casilli and posada 2019). we have already suggested that machine-learned sociality, as it manifests on social media, tends to be competitive and individualizing (in its ordinal dimension) and algorithmic and emergent (in its nominal dimension). although resistance to algorithms is growing, those who are classified in ways they find detrimental (on either dimension) may be more likely to try to work on themselves or navigate algorithmic workarounds than to contest the classificatory instrument itself (ziewitz 2019) . furthermore, we know that people who work under distributed, algorithmically managed conditions (e.g., mechanical turk workers, uber drivers) find it difficult to communicate amongst themselves and organize (irani and silberman 2013; lehdonvirta 2016; dubal 2017) . these features of the growing entanglement of social and machine learning may imply dire prospects for collective action-and beyond it, for the achievement of any sort of broad-based, solidaristic project. in this section, we tentatively review possibilities for solidarity and mobilization as they present themselves in the field of social media. machine learning systems' capacity to ingest and represent immense quantities of data does increase the chances that those with common experiences will find one another, at least insofar as those experiences are shared online. machine-learned types thereby become potentially important determinants of solidarity, displacing or supplementing the traditional forces of geography, ascribed identities, and voluntary association. those dimensions of social life that social media algorithms have determined people really care about often help give rise to, or supercharge, amorphous but effective forms of offline action, if only because the broadcasting costs are close to zero. examples may include the viral amplification of videos and messages, the spontaneity of flash mobs (molnár 2014) , the leaderless, networked protests of the arab spring (tufekci 2016) , or of the french gilets jaunes (haynes 2019), and the #metoo movement's reliance on public disclosures on social media platforms. nonetheless, the thinness, fleeting character, and relative randomness of the affiliations summoned in those ways (based on segmented versions of the self, which may or may not overlap) might make social recognition and commonality of purpose difficult to sustain in the long run. more significant, perhaps, is the emergence of modes of collective action that are specifically designed not only to fit the online medium, but also to capitalize on its technical features. many of these strategies were first implemented to stigmatize or sow division, although there is no fatality that this is their only possible use. examples include the anti-semitic (((echo))) tagging on twitter-originally devised to facilitate trolling by online mobs (weisman 2018) but later repurposed by non-jews as an expression of solidarity; the in-the-wild training of a microsoft chatter bot, literally "taught" by well-organized users to tweet inflammatory comments; the artificial manipulation of conversations and trends through robotic accounts; or the effective delegation, by the trump 2020 campaign, of the management of its ad-buying activities to facebook's algorithms, optimized on the likelihood that users will take certain campaign-relevant actions-"signing up for a rally, buying a hat, giving up a phone number" (bogost and madrigal 2020) . 11 the exploitation of algorithms for divisive purposes often spurs its own reactions, from organized counter-mobilizations to institutional interventions by platforms themselves. during the 2020 black lives matter protests, for instance, kpop fans flooded rightwing hashtags on instagram and twitter with fancams and memes in order to overwhelm racist messaging. even so, often the work of "civilizing" the social media public sphere is left to algorithms, supported by human decision-makers working through rules and protocols (and replacing them in especially sensitive cases). social media companies ban millions of accounts every month for inappropriate language or astroturfing (coordinated operations on social media that masquerade as a grassroot movement): algorithms have been trained to detect and exclude certain types of coalitions on the basis of a combination of social structure and content. in 2020, the british far right movement "britain first" moved to tiktok after being expelled from facebook, twitter, instagram, and youtube-and then over to vkontakte or vk, a russian platform, after being banned from tiktok (usa news 2020). chastised in the offline world for stirring discord and hate, the economic engines that gave the movement a megaphone have relegated it to their margins with embarrassment. the episode goes to show that there is nothing inherently inclusive in the kind of group solidarity that machine learning enables, and thus it has to be constantly put to the (machine learning) test. in the end, platforms' ideal of collective action may resemble the tardean, imitative but atomized crowd, nimble but lacking in endurance and capacity (tufekci 2016) . mimetic expressions of solidarity, such as photo filters (e.g., rainbow), the "blacking out" of one's newsfeed, or the much-bemoaned superficiality of "clicktivism" may be effective at raising consciousness or the profile of an issue, but they may be insufficient to support broader-based social and political transformations. in fact, social media might actually crowd out other solidaristic institutions by also serving as a (feeble, often) palliative for their failures. for example, crowdsourced campaigns, now commonly used to finance healthcare costs, loss of employment, or educational expenses, perform a privatized solidarity that is a far cry from the universal logic of public welfare institutions. up to this point, our emphasis has been on the kinds of sociality that machine learning implementations tend to engender on the social media field, in both vertical (ordinal) and horizontal (nominal) configurations. we have, in a sense, been "reassembling the social" afresh, with an eye, especially, to its computational components and chains of reference (latour 2005) . throughout, we have stressed, nonetheless, that machine learning and other applications of artificial intelligence must be understood as forces internal to social life-both subject to and integral to its contingent properties-not forces external to it or determinative of it. accordingly, it is just as important to engage in efforts to reassemble "the machine"-that is, to revisit and put once more into contention the associative preconditions for machine learning taking the form that it currently does, in social media platforms for instance. and if we seek to reassemble the machine, paraphrasing latour (2005, p. 233) , "it's necessary, aside from the circulation and formatting of traditionally conceived [socio-technical] ties, to detect other circulating entities." so what could be some "other circulating entities" within the socio-technical complex of machine learning, or how could we envisage its elements circulating, and associating, otherwise? on some level, our analysis suggests that the world has changed very little. like every society, machine-learned society is powered by two fundamental, sometimes contradictory forces: stratification and association, vertical and horizontal difference. to be sure, preexisting social divisions and inequalities are still very much part of its operations. but the forces of ordinality and nominality have also been materialized and formatted in new ways, of which for-profit social media offer a particularly stark illustration. the machinelearnable manifestations of these forces in social media: these are among the "other circulating entities" now traceable. recursive dynamics between social and machine learning arise where social structures, economic relations and computational systems intersect. central to these dynamics in the social media field are the development of a searching disposition to match the searchability of the environment, the learnability of the self through quantified measurement, the role of scores in the processing of social positions and hierarchies, the decategorization and recategorization of associational identities, automated feedback that fosters compulsive habits and competitive social dispositions, and strategic interactions between users and platforms around the manipulation of algorithms. what, then, of prospects for reassembly of existing configurations? notwithstanding the lofty claims of the it industry, there is nothing inherently democratizing or solidaristic about the kinds of social inclusiveness that machine learning brings about. the effects of individuals and groups' social lives being rendered algorithmically learnable are ambivalent and uneven. in fact, they may be as divisive and hierarchizing as they may be connective and flattening. moreover, the conditions for entry into struggle in the social media field are set by a remarkably small number of corporate entities and "great men of tech" with global reach and influence (grewal 2008) . a level playing field this most definitely is not. rather, it has been carved up and crenellated by those who happen to have accumulated greatest access to the data processing and storage capacity that machine learning systems require, together with the real property, intellectual property, and personal property rights, and the network of political and regulatory lobbyists that ensure that exclusivity of access is maintained (cohen 2019) . power in this field is, accordingly, unlikely to be reconfigured or redistributed organically, or through generalized exhortation to commit to equity or ethics (many versions of which are self-serving on the part of major players). instead, political action aimed at building or rebuilding social solidarities across such hierarchies and among such clusters must work with and through them, in ways attentive to the specifics of their instantiation in particular techno-social settings. to open to meaningful political negotiation those allocations and configurations of power that machine learning systems help to inscribe in public and private life-this demands more than encompassing a greater proportion of people within existing practices of ruling and being ruled, and more than tinkering around the edges of existing rules. the greater the change in sociality and social relations-and machine learning is transforming both, as we have recounted-the more arrant and urgent the need for social, political and regulatory action specifically attuned to that change and to the possibility of further changes. social and political action must be organized around the inequalities and nominal embattlements axiomatic to the field of social media, and to all fields shaped in large part by machine learning. and these inequalities and embattlements must be approached not as minor deviations from a prevailing norm of equality (that is, something that can be corrected after the fact or addressed through incremental, technical fixes), but as constitutive of the field itself. this cannot, moreover, be left up to the few whose interests and investments have most shaped the field to date. it is not our aim to set out a program for this here so much as to elucidate some of the social and automated conditions under which such action may be advanced. that, we must recognize, is a task for society, in all its heterogeneity. it is up to society, in other words, to reassemble the machine. how the reification of merit breeds inequality: theory and 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cities, tech and the new economy hackathons as co-optation ritual: socializing workers and institutionalizing innovation in the publisher's note springer nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations as well as numerous articles that explore and theorize national variations in political mores, valuation cultures, economic policy, and economic knowledge. more recently, she has written extensively on the political economy of digitality, looking specifically at the changing nature of inequality and stratification in the digital era since 2015, she has been conducting fieldwork on the role of digital technology and digital data in development, humanitarian aid, and disaster relief-work funded, since 2018, by the australian research council. relevant publications include "global governance through the pairing of list and algorithm" (environment and planning d: society and space 2015); "data, detection, and the redistribution of the sensible acknowledgments we are grateful to kieran healy, etienne ollion, john torpey, wayne wobcke, and sharon zukin for helpful comments and suggestions. we also thank the institute for advanced study for institutional support. an earlier version of this article was presented at the "social and ethical challenges of machine learning" workshop at the institute for advanced study, princeton, november 2019. key: cord-330560-amqs5lb6 authors: rana, sourav; bhattacharya, sabyasachi; pal, joydeep; n’guérékata, gaston m.; chattopadhyay, joydev title: paradox of enrichment: a fractional differential approach with memory date: 2013-09-01 journal: physica a doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.03.061 sha: doc_id: 330560 cord_uid: amqs5lb6 the paradox of enrichment (poe) proposed by rosenzweig [m. rosenzweig, the paradox of enrichment, science 171 (1971) 385–387] is still a fundamental problem in ecology. most of the solutions have been proposed at an individual species level of organization and solutions at community level are lacking. knowledge of how learning and memory modify behavioral responses to species is a key factor in making a crucial link between species and community levels. poe resolution via these two organizational levels can be interpreted as a microscopicand macroscopic-level solution. fractional derivatives provide an excellent tool for describing this memory and the hereditary properties of various materials and processes. the derivatives can be physically interpreted via two time scales that are considered simultaneously: the ideal, equably flowing homogeneous local time, and the cosmic (inhomogeneous) non-local time. several mechanisms and theories have been proposed to resolve the poe problem, but a universally accepted theory is still lacking because most studies have focused on local effects and ignored non-local effects, which capture memory. here we formulate the fractional counterpart of the rosenzweig model and analyze the stability behavior of a system. we conclude that there is a threshold for the memory effect parameter beyond which the rosenzweig model is stable and may be used as a potential agent to resolve poe from a new perspective via fractional differential equations. the paradox of enrichment (poe) phenomenon in population ecology was first proposed by michael rosenzweig in 1971 [1] . rosenzweig observed that enrichment may destroy the steady state of a predator-prey system. he formulated his model using ordinary differential equations (odes) and considered enrichment by increasing the prey-carrying capacity. he observed that this gradually leads to destabilization of the system, usually into a limit cycle. this cyclical pattern was further studied by may [2] and gilpin and rosenzweig [3] . enrichment leads to destabilization of the equilibrium of the rosenzweig and many other models [4] ; huge amplitudes occur that frequently drive population densities to very low values and this may result in extinction. the word ''paradox'' is used because enrichment leads to extinction. since the 1990s, the word ''paradox'' has also been associated with the fact that destabilization is not always (or rarely) observed in natural environments, as discussed by jensen and ginzburg [5] . they reviewed the literature on experimental attempts to demonstrate poe and found an insufficient number of studies in favor of poe. some commonly misinterpreted examples and experiments (artificial lake eutrophication, didinium-paramecium systems [6, 7] , rotifer-algae systems [8] ) addressing the question of whether poe exists need further discussion. several theoretical and empirical studies have been carried out in attempts to explain the poe phenomenon. roy and chattopadhyay provide a detailed review of the studies and a brief overview of the proposed solutions [4] . they described some reasonable mechanisms, such as the presence of inedible prey, invulnerable prey, unpalatable prey, ratio-dependent functional responses, spatiotemporal chaos, inducible defense, density-dependent predator mortality and toxic food, to resolve the paradoxical outcome of ecosystem enrichment. several additional mechanisms have also been proposed. for example, abrams and roth proposed refuges and immigration as a possible solution [9] . more recently, mougi and nishimura showed that rapid trait evolution of predator-prey species can stabilize the system [10] . an imperfect optimal foraging mechanism was proposed by mougi and nishimura [11] . rall et al. predicted that a sigmoidal or predator inference functional response can dampen population oscillations due to enrichment that resolves poe [12] . disease in ecological systems has been recognized as an essential mechanism in different ecological issues. sharp and pastor recently considered a densitydependent susceptible deer population, an infected population and an environmental pool of prions that infect the deer population [13] . they showed that the disease population has the ability to dampen population oscillations. solutions to the poe problem have been established by several authors from diverse perspectives and dimensions, but most of the solutions have some common factors associated with the behavioral aspects of predator-prey species at the individual level and inducible or morphological defense mechanisms of the prey. however, solutions that consider community-level organization are still lacking. knowledge of how learning and memory modify behavioral responses to species is a key factor in making a crucial link between the species and community levels [14] . resolution of poe via these two organizational levels can be interpreted as a microscopic-and macroscopic-level solution. in statistical physics the connection between microscopic dynamics in a stochastic system and a macroscopic description of their behavior as a whole is very attractive [15] . it has been already established that the macroscopic behavior of stochastic systems contains a manifestation of microscopic dynamics due to memory effects [15] . memory in the biological domain in physical systems is manifest as a series of events that induce episodic memory [16, 17] containing information about past and present events and can help in making future decisions [18] . biological systems are also enriched with ecological memory [19] . memory relates to historic events and requires an entire long-term record for analysis. for example, seasonal succession of phytoplankton in lakes responds to small changes in trophic structure and natural fluctuations of gradients [19] . aquatic and phytoplankton systems possess a remarkable memory of climatic events [20] . apart from such climatic phenomena, aquatic zooplankton exhibit memory-based phenomenological responses: small changes in the environment induce morphological defense organs such as helmet formation and the development of spines through cyclomorphosis [21] . these changes are due to a mixed seasonal and genetically inherited reaction [22] induced over long time scales, suggesting a phenotypic change through memory-based actions. prey refuge, group hunting and prey swarming are all well-coordinated actions based on memories of past events that lead to cultural learning [14] . experience accrued through learning may direct anti-predator responses [23] [24] [25] . in aquatic systems, learning of chemical cues and the production of counter responses are well documented among zooplankton [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] . westerlund remarked that, surprisingly, even ''dead matter has memory'' [32] . a recent study by zheng et al. [33] revealed that discrete earthquake events are related to seismic memory. fractional derivatives provide an excellent tool for describing memory and the hereditary properties of various materials and processes [34, 35] . in other words, fractional dynamic systems in applications can adequately represent some long-term memory and non-local effects that are typical for many anomalous processes [36] . in this calculus, a caputo derivative implies a memory effect via convolution between an integer-order derivative and a power of time [37] . note that a fractionalorder system is more stable than its integer counterpart since the stability domain in the complex space of eigenvalues of the linearized system for fractional differential equations (fdes) remains contained and is larger than the corresponding domain for ordinary differential equations [38] . fdes also help in reducing errors arising from neglected parameters in modeling of real-life phenomena [39] . ahmed and elgazzar used fdes to study non-local epidemics synergistic with other complex adaptive systems such as severe acute respiratory syndrome, avian flu, and foot-and-mouth disease [40] . local and non-local interactions were widely observed in recent outbreaks of the above diseases and the model proposed by ahmed and elgazzar captured these interactions. arafa et al. also used fdes to elegantly model childhood diseases with constant vaccination and obtained an approximate analytic solution through the homotopy analysis method [41] . immune systems include both antigen-specific and systematic response and involve memory. a fractional-order example of two immune effectors attacking an antigen was proposed by hashish and ahmed [42] . apart from ecology and epidemiology, fdes have interdisciplinary applications in various fields. for example, nonlinear earthquake oscillations can be modeled using fractional derivatives [41] and a fluiddynamics traffic model with fractional derivatives can eliminate the efficiency arising from assumption of continuous traffic flow [41] . gomez et al. used a fractional temporal operator in rc equivalent circuits to modify the standard kirchhoff law in an fde domain [43] . many researchers have tried to resolve poe from different perspectives but to the best of our knowledge there have been no studies involving fdes. here we formulate a fractional counterpart of the rosenzweig model and analyze the stability of the model. we infer that there is a critical threshold of the memory effect parameter beyond which the rosenzweig system is stable and we thus resolve poe from a new perspective. the remainder of the paper is organized as follows. we describe local and non-local kernels in section 2. in section 3 we present our mathematical model with highlight the existence and uniqueness of its solution. in section 4 we investigate the model behavior around ecologically feasible equilibria. the paper ends with results and conclusions. it is well known that integer-order derivatives have local kernels with clear physical interpretations, which significantly simplifies their use for solving applied problems in various fields of science. however, this is not true in the case of fractionalorder integrals and derivatives, which have non-local kernels. nevertheless, there is rapidly growing interest in both theory and applications to real world problems [44] . the physical interpretation of fractional integration and differentiation is based on cosmic time and individual time [45] . the fractional integral of a function is generally interpreted as the real distance passed by a moving object, for which the recorded local values of its speed represent individual speed and the local values of time represent individual time. the relationship between the locally recorded time (which is considered as flowing equably and is represented as t) and cosmic time (which is considered as flowing non-equably) τ is given by a known mathematical function g t (τ ). the function g t (τ ) describes the inhomogeneous time scale, which depends on both τ and t, which here is the last value measured for the individual time of the moving object. when t changes, the entire preceding cosmic time interval changes as well. the derivative of this distance based on local time, which is also a function of non-local time, is interpreted as the fractional derivate [45] . in other words, the homogeneous time scale is just an ideal notion and is necessary for developing mathematical models describing inhomogeneous cosmic time and its change. thus, the ideal model of equably flowing homogeneous time can be considered as a rough approximation of cosmic time, which is non-local [45] . fractional dynamical systems adequately represent some long-term memory and these non-local effects that are typical for many anomalous processes [36] . such non-local effects can be captured through the fractional differential operator, which has a power law form [46] . several mechanisms have been proposed to resolve the poe problem. this universally accepted theory is still an unachieved goal because most researchers consider only local effects and ignore non-local effects, which capture memory. there are many definitions of fractional derivatives. those most frequently used are the grunwald-letnikov, riemann-liouville (rl), and caputo definitions [44, [47] [48] [49] . note that the zero singularity inherent to the rl derivative may pose challenges and difficulties. the caputo derivative needs more regularity as it uses the first derivative of the function in question, whereas the rl derivative does not require as much smoothness. in the caputo case the derivative of a constant is zero and we can properly define the initial conditions for fdes so that they can be handled analogously to the classical integer case. the caputo derivative implies a memory effect by means of a convolution between the integer-order derivative and a power of time [44, 48, 49] . we consider the model proposed by rosenzweig [1, model 4] and explicitly studied by gilpin [3] . the model is as follows: where n is prey density and p is predator density. k is the prey carrying capacity. the predator isocline is at n = j. the other parameters of (3.1) influence the shape of the prey zero isocline and the rate of system response [3] . we assume that all parameters are positive. now we introduce fractional order into model (3.1) . the fractional rosenzweig model is obtained from the classical equations by replacing the first-order time derivatives by fractional derivatives of order α, where 0 < α < 1. the fractional relaxation equations [50] [51] [52] contain an integral operator with a slowly decaying power law kernel so that the process is not markovian and depends on the prehistory of the system [46, 53] . the new system is described by the following set of fdes: where d α y(x), α ∈ (0, 1] is the fractional-order derivative of y in the sense of caputo, defined as is the value of α rounded up to the nearest integer, y m (x) is the usual mth derivative of y(x), is the rl integral operator of order β > 0, and γ (β) is the gamma function [44, [47] [48] [49] 54] . we are now in a position to discuss the existence and uniqueness of the solution of (3.2). consider the fractional-order rosenzweig predator-prey system (3.2) with initial conditions n(0) = c 1 , p(0) = c 2 . this can be written as , t < ∞, and let c 2 (i) be the class of all continuous column vector functions let l 2 1 (i) be the class of all lebesgue-integrable column vector functions on i with norm now we consider the following assumptions [55] . condition (2) implies that the functions f i satisfy the lipschitz condition (1) and (2) with m 1 = max{b, rb, akcb, ak}. now we have the following theorem. let assumptions (1) and (2) be satisfied. then the initial value problem (3.3) has a unique solution x ∈ c 2 (i), x ′ ∈ c 2 (i σ ), and x ′ ∈ l 2 1 (i). proof. the proof follows from [55, theorem 1 ]. an approximate analytic solution of system (3.2) obtained using the homotopy analysis method [56] is presented in appendix a. the equilibrium points of system (3.2) the jacobian matrix at e 0 (0, 0) is the eigenvalues corresponding to e 0 are r, ak( e −cj − 1), so e 0 is unstable for all α ∈ (0, 1]. the jacobian matrix at e 1 (k , 0) is  . the eigenvalues corresponding to e 1 are −r, ak( e −cj − e −ck ), so e 1 is locally asymptotically stable if k < j. the jacobian matrix at e the eigenvalues corresponding to e are a sufficient condition for the local asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point e is (4.1) the major review of empirical and theoretical poe studies presented by roy and chattopadhyay [4] provides a number of plausible solutions and partial resolution of the problem. the experimental evidence was challenged by jensen and ginzburg [5] , who showed that most examples proposed as evidence of poe are insufficient to justify the phenomenon in natural systems. a common example of poe is the process of lake eutrophication. enrichment of aquatic systems appears to increase the carrying capacity of producers and leads to a bloom that covers the lake. poe may be suggested as a cause of this phenomenon, but in fact it is the limiting dissolved oxygen that is responsible for system collapse in this case, irrespective of the enrichment response. other empirical studies using the didinium-paramecium system were carried out by luckinbill [6] and veilleux [7] . both authors showed that the system proposed by gause [57] could be modified to allow coexistence of predator and prey. addition of methyl cellulose prevented the extinction of any of the species in the system and provided an artificial refuge for prey species. similarly, a study of rotifer-algae by fussmann et al. showed that predator extinction resulted from enrichment [8] . similar to the experiments of luckinbill and veilleux, the results showed that reducing nutrient input can bring the system from a region of consistent predator extinction to a region of coexistence. capture of this ubiquitous dynamic behavior involved in poe remains an open problem from both theoretical and ecological perspectives. here we considered the rosenzweig model of poe to provide a plausible solution from a new perspective that considers the ecological memory that exists for most species. most of the solutions proposed so far involve species-level organization and ignore the community level. as a consequence, the impact of memory on system dynamics has been neglected. this memory can be well captured by a fractional derivative consisting of non-local operators. the memory effect can also be incorporated using other frameworks such as volterra integral equations and delay differential equations [58] . volterra integral equations describe systems with continuously distributed memory over all past events. for example, the spread of epidemics with a general (not necessarily exponential) distribution of infection times can table 1 parameter values used to solve (3.2) (taken from [3] ). be modeled by volterra integral equations. in another example, the evolution of a set of competing biological species with memory can be modeled through a system of integro-differential equations, which can be reduced to a system of volterra integral equations [58] . besides population dynamics, the evolution of capital stock under an investment strategy can be described by a volterra integral equation. in an ode system in ecology, the representation of a process by a function is often based on experiments. the response of the function chosen can be fitted to experimental data. this functional response should not be derived mechanistically but phenomenologically [59] . the functional response may be prey-and/or predator-dependent according to experimental results. naturally, these types of experiment can have various time lengths and integrate memory. note that even if an ode describes an instantaneous process, the notion of instant depends on the time scale considered, whereas fdes have the property of fading memory and depend on the range of α (0 < α < 1). such memories can describe current events with the collective information from preceding events, while events in the far past can often be neglected compared to contributions from the near past [60] . volterra defined the notion of fading memory as ''the principle of dissipation of hereditary action'' [61] . podlubny [44] called this the ''short memory principle''. in this study we used fdes to capture the memory effect in an ecological framework. naturally we expect that our modified rosenzweig model (3.2) with memory characterized by α ∈ (0, 1) is more stable than the classical rosenzweig model with integer α(=1). note that α plays a key role in understanding memory effects on species. the system sensitivity with respect to α is an important aspect to be discussed. we analyzed the sensitivity of model (3.2) with input parameter α and output the range of k up to which the system is stable (appendix c). we observe that when the value of α decreases, the system has a high elasticity index, that is, the system is more sensitive with respect to α. since most fdes do not have exact analytic solutions, approximation and numerical techniques must be used. several analytical and numerical methods exist for solving fdes. for numerical solution of (3.2), we used the fde12 package in matlab which is an implementation of the adams-bashforth-moulton predictor-corrector method [62] [63] [64] [65] . the parameter values listed in table 1 were used. fig. 1(a) shows that the classical rosenzweig model with no memory is stable for a carrying capacity of k = 48. when we enrich the prey carrying capacity (k = 60, k = 80) and keep the other parameter fixed, the system destabilizes ( fig. 1(b) and (c) ). however, when we incorporate the memory effect in the classical model with α ∈ (0, 1), the system no longer shows a pattern of destabilization on enrichment (figs. 2 and 3 ). fig. 4 shows that the system has a memory threshold (α ≈ 0.2332) below which it is always stable, even if we further increase the carrying capacity without restriction. mathematically this intermediate value of α can be interpreted as a filter with partial memory that falls between two extreme filters with complete memory and with no memory [66] . the individual-level organization discussed above is mainly associated with the behavioral aspects of predator-prey relationships and inducible or morphological prey mechanisms. learning and memory can modify these anti-predator behavioral responses, which is key to making the link between individual-level processes and higher-level organization in ecological systems [14] . for example, prey refuge is one of the most manifest and well-coordinated actions based on memories of past events that lead to cultural learning [14] . to illustrate this issue, we incorporated a refuge parameter in the fractional-order rosenzweig conditions for which the modified rosenzweig model is stable are given in appendix b. the region of stability for the corresponding enrichment parameter (k ) and refuge parameter (m) expands if we gradually increase the memory effect in comparison to a system with no memory (fig. 5) . estimation of the model parameters for such a system is an important task from a data analysis perspective. the total least squares approach is suitable for this purpose and we applied this method to illustrate model (3.2) and fitted an estimated curve for a simulated data set (appendix c). this memory phenomenon is clearly an approximate tradeoff between fractional differentiation and stability. against this backdrop, we conclude that ecological memories can protect a system against destabilization and may represent a potential agent for resolving poe from a new perspective using fdes. we are grateful to the reviewers for their comments and suggestions on an earlier version of this paper. our research work is supported by the council of scientific and industrial research (csir), human resource development group, new delhi. in this appendix we apply the homotopy analysis method [56] to obtain a numerical analytical solution for fractional system (3.2). we choose the base function as {t (n+m)α |n, m ≥ 0}, so the solutions are of the form a n,m t (n+m)α where a n,m , b n,m are the coefficients. it is straightforward to choose n 0 (t) = c 1 , p 0 (t) = c 2 as our initial approximation of n(t) and p(t), and the linear operator is then where a is the integration constant, which is determined by the initial conditions. if q ∈ [0, 1] and h indicate the embedding and non-zero auxiliary parameters, respectively, then the zero-order deformation problems are of the following form: cn(t;q) ). for q = 0 and q = 1, zero-order (a.3) have the solutionŝ n(t; 0) = n 0 (t),p(t; 0) = p 0 (t) andn (t; 1) = n(t),p(t; 1) = p(t). when q increases from 0 to 1, thenn(t; q) andp(t; q) vary from n 0 (t) and p 0 (t) to n(t) and p(t), respectively. expandingn andp in taylor series with respect to q, we havê we take the mth-order homotopy derivative of the zero-order (a.3) and use [67, to obtain the m-order deformation equations with the initial conditions if m > 1 . in this way, it is easy to solve the linear non-homogeneous equations (a.7) with initial conditions (a.8) for all m ≥ 1 and we obtain proceeding similarly, the pth term of the approximate solutions of (3.2) is (a.10) this appendix provides the conditions for which our fractional rosenzweig model is stable. . the corresponding variational matrix is where λ 1 , λ 2 are the eigenvalues of the jacobian matrix v and α (0 < α ≤ 1) is the order of the fractional derivative. we estimated the parameters of our fractional rosenzweig model and analyzed its sensitivity with respect to α. to estimate the parameters we used the total least squares method [68, 69] , also known as orthogonal distance fitting (odf), which has significant advantages [70] in the case of several spatial dimensions. odf uses perpendicular (orthogonal) distances between given points and the fitting curve. the sum of orthogonal distances between two sets of points is described by where n is the number of experimental points and the parameters α 1 , α 2 , . . . , α n influence the function f , which is called the fitting curve or the set of fitting points; d represents the distance from given experimental points, with coordinates (x i , y i ), to the fitting curve f . we used the fmincon optimization algorithm in matlab for data fitting of model (3.2) as described by skovranek et al. [71] . the coordinates of the points to be fitted in the state space are generated randomly in 2d space. we generated an initial data set of 30 points from model (3.2) with the parameter values listed in table 1 , along with k = 20 and α = 0.75. the final data set was generated by adding gaussian noise to the data set for each predator-prey population with variance of 0.1 and 0.6 for prey and predator populations, respectively. fig. 6 shows the results, in which the green points are randomly generated and the red line represents the estimated curve. the estimated model parameters and error of fit using the fmincon procedure are given in table 2 . we conducted a sensitivity analysis of model (3.2) with respect to α. we used the sensitivity coefficient proposed by loucks et al. for our analysis [72] . this measures the magnitude of change in an output variable q per unit change in the magnitude of an input parameter value α from its base value α 0 . we used the sensitivity coefficient [73] s α = max{|(q 0 −q i )/ (α 0 − α i )|, |(q 0 − q j )/(α 0 − α j )|} and calculated the elasticity index [72, 73] e α =  α 0 q (α 0 )  s α , which is a dimensionless sensitivity measure of the relative change in output q for a relative change in input α. here the index i represent a decrease and j an increase in the parameter from its base value α 0 . for model (3.2) we calculated the elasticity index with respect to input variable α. the output(q ) is the range of k up to which the system is stable. we calculated the output (q ) for values of α from 0.4 to 1 and then calculated the elasticity index and plotted this as a function of α in fig. 7 . it is clear that the elasticity index increases as α decreases. it should be noted that enrichment does not hold for values less than a threshold of α = 0.2332, so the range α ∈ [0.4, 1] is used in fig. 7 . the paradox of enrichment limit cycles in predator-prey communities enriched predator-prey systems: theoretical stability the 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prey animals acquired recognition of chemical stimuli from an unfamiliar predator: associative learning by adult newts, notophthalmus viridescens predator-recognition training enhances survival of brook trout: evidence from laboratory and field enclosure studies anti-predator behavior of naive compared with experienced juvenile roach dead matter has memory! scaling of seismic memory with earthquake size a new dissipation model based on memory mechanism synchronization of chaotic fractional-order systems via linear control complex oscillations and limit cycles in autonomous two-component incommensurate fractional dynamical systems fractional mechanical oscillators equilibrium points, stability and numerical solutions of fractional-order predator-prey and rabies models fractional order seir model with density dependent death rate on fractional order differential equations model for nonlocal epidemics solutions of fractional order model of childhood diseases with constant vaccination strategy towards understanding the immune system modeling and simulation of equivalent circuits in description of biological systems -a fractional calculus approach fractional differential equations geometric and physical interpretation of fractional integration and fractional differentiation fractional integrals and derivatives: theory and applications theory and applications of fractional differential equations an introduction to the fractional calculus and fractional differential equations the fractional calculus: theory and applications of differentiation and integration to arbitrary order cole-davidson dielectric relaxation as a self-similar relaxation process the justified data-curve fitting approach: recognition of the new type of kinetic equations in fractional derivatives from analysis of raw dielectric data anomalous diffusion and dielectric relaxation in an n-fold cosine potential memory regeneration phenomenon in dielectrics: the fractional derivative approach topics in fractional differential equations on the fractional-order games with non-uniform interaction rate and asymmetric games beyond perturbation: introduction to the homotopy analysis method the struggle for existence optimal control of impulsive volterra equations with variable impulse times predator functional responses: discriminating between handling and digesting prey fractional dynamics of globally slow transcription and its impact on deterministic genetic oscillation theory of functionals and of integral and integro-differential equations on linear stability of predictor-corrector algorithms for fractional differential equations efficient solution of multi-term fractional differential equations using p(ec)me methods detailed error analysis for a fractional adams method fast numerical solution of nonlinear volterra convolution equations physical and geometrical interpretation of fractional operators homotopy analysis method for solving fractional lorenz system an analysis of the total least squares problem analysis and solution of the nongeneric total least squares problem state space description of national economies: the v4 countries data fitting using solutions of differential equations: fractional-order model versus integer-order model water resources systems planning and management: an introduction to methods, models and applications hydrologic modelling: statistical methods and applications key: cord-349831-0u9y35qo authors: ellis, george f. r. title: the causal closure of physics in real world contexts date: 2020-08-18 journal: found phys doi: 10.1007/s10701-020-00366-0 sha: doc_id: 349831 cord_uid: 0u9y35qo the causal closure of physics is usually discussed in a context free way. here i discuss it in the context of engineering systems and biology, where strong emergence takes place due to a combination of upwards emergence and downwards causation (ellis, emergence in solid state physics and biology, 2020, arxiv:2004.13591). firstly, i show that causal closure is strictly limited in terms of spatial interactions because these are cases that are of necessity strongly interacting with the environment. effective spatial closure holds ceteris parabus, and can be violated by black swan events. secondly, i show that causal closure in the hierarchy of emergence is a strictly interlevel affair, and in the cases of engineering and biology encompasses all levels from the social level to the particle physics level. however effective causal closure can usefully be defined for a restricted set of levels, and one can experimentally determine effective theories that hold at each level. this does not however imply those effective theories are causally complete by themselves. in particular, the particle physics level is not causally complete by itself in the contexts of solid state physics (because of interlevel wave–particle duality), digital computers (where algorithms determine outcomes), or biology (because of time dependent constraints). furthermore inextricably intertwined levels occur in all these contexts. it is often supposed that causal closure occurs at the micro level in physical systems, and hence prevents the occurrence of strong emergence because the macrostate supervenes on the microstate [81, 82] . this is discussed in [27, 68, 89, 54] . in contrast, [20] shows by careful philosophical argument that one can have emergence with reduction, as well as without it; and emergence without supervenience, as well as with it. here i want to examine the issue in a different way, by dealing in some detail with the hierarchical nature of emergence in real world contexts: the cases of engineering, based in the underlying solid state physics, and biology, based in the underlying molecular biology, in turn based in the underlying physics. the context is my paper [41] that establishes that strong emergence does indeed take place in both those cases, so that the argument against strong emergence has to be wrong in those contexts. reference [41] examines the issue of strong emergence of properties p of macrodynamics m out of the underlying microdynamics m in the context of condensed matter physics and biology. following anderson's lead [4, 5] that symmetry breaking is at the heart of emergence, its method was to identify five different kinds of symmetry breaking occurring in different contexts ( [41] , sect. 2.3] and then to trace how broken symmetry states at the macro and micro levels interact with each other. • the microscale dynamics m, based in the laws of physics l, obeys symmetries s: s(m)=m. spontaneous symmetry breaking ssb(m) leads to symmetry breaking of the macro scale dynamics m through the emergence process e whereby m emerges from the microscale dynamics m. this is weak emergence ∶ → ∶ ( ) ≠ . • this spontaneously broken macro state m reaches down to create quasiparticles such as phonons at the micro level, which play a key dynamical role at that level. 1 the base microdynamics m is altered to produce an effective microdynamics m ′ which breaks the symmetry of the underlying physical laws l. thus → � ∶ ( � ) ≠ . • to derive correctly the properties of macro dynamics m from the micro dynamical level, you must coarse grain the effective theory m ′ rather than m. • thus strong emergence takes place in this case: you cannot even in principle derive the macrodynamics m from the microdynamics m in a strictly bottom up way, because m satisfies the symmetry s and m does not. 2 as a consequence [41] : sect. 4.4, in the case of solid state physics, the underlying microphysics m cannot be causally complete, because by itself it cannot lead to the emergence of known properties of solids such as electrical conductivity. the lower level physics only gives the correct outcome when modified by inclusion of terms a(m) arising from the higher level state m (so ( ) ≠ ). the same is true for living systems. that is, in both these cases, causal completeness is only attained by considering both the low level properties m and the higher level properties m (which lead to the alteration → ′ ) together. the real causally closed system comprises both those levels. the aim of this paper is to extend that result by investigating causal closure of physics in terms of determining dynamic properties 3 p(d) of entities in engineering and biological contexts (i use the word closure rather than completeness for reasons that become apparent below as the theme develops). a separate very interesting project would extend this to considering the dynamic emergence of entities e(d) over time, see e.g. [24] . section 2 sets the context for the discussion, which is the hierarchies of emergence in the cases of engineering and the life sciences respectively (table 1) . it introduce the idea of an effective theory at each level l, and discusses bottom up and top down causation in the hierarchy of emergence (sect. 2.3). section 3 introduces the idea of a domain of interest (doi), and the concept of effective spatial closure (sect. 3.3) . it is shown that in terms of spatial interactions, causal closure in engineering and biology only holds ceteris parabus. yes of course philosophers know that this is the case; the point is that it has real consequences in real world contexts. section 4 defines levels of interest (loi) and sect. 4.4 introduces the need for restricted domains of interest. section 5 introduces interlevel causal closure in the case of biology (sect. 5.3), sect. 6 extends this to the case of digital computers and physics. section 7 summarizes the main results of this paper, emphasizes that unavoidable unpredictability also undermines causal closure, and comments on ways people ignore the issues raised in this paper. the novel concepts introduced are effective theories the context of the discussion is the hierarchy of emergence. as stated by [4] , at each level of complexity, entirely new properties appear ... at each stage entirely new laws, concepts, and generalizations are necessary. the emergent hierarchy is shown in table 1 for the cases of engineering on the left and life sciences, in particular the case of humanity, on the right. the left hand side represent the sciences of the artificial as discussed by [126] . the right hand side represents the structures and processes of biology, as discussed by [23] . this hierarchy has important aspects. • the bottom three levels l1-l3 are the same on both sides. this is one of the great discoveries science has made: inanimate matter and living matter are made of the same stuff at the bottom. electrons are at level l3, interacting with the nucleus. • the atomic level l3 is where new properties emerge out of the underlying physics, as characterised by the periodic table of the elements, another great discovery. • the components enabling complexity to arise occur at level l4. both semiconductors and metals are crystals, and they are the key components of machines. 4 solid state physics covers levels l3-l4. biomolecules such as dna, rna, and proteins are the foundations of biological emergence. • level l5 is where the basic units of complexity arise, showing functional emergent properties, and being the basis for building complex entities. on the machines side, these are devices such as transistors, light emitting diodes, photodetectors, and lasers. on the life sciences side, they are cells: the basic building block of life, which come in many different types. this is the lowest level where the processes of life occur, entailing metabolism and information processing hartwell et al. [61] . • level l6 is where on the machine side, devices are integrated into functional units, such as the central processing unit in a microprocessor, which is itself a device. on the life sciences side, organs comprising physiological systems occur. • level l7 is where functional units occur that have an integrity of their own: they are effectively causally closed systems imbedded in a larger environment. on the engineering side, they are machines built to carry out some purpose, such as aircraft or digital computers or particle colliders. on the life sciences side, they are individuals with autonomy of action. • level l8 is the same on both sides. both machines and individual human beings exist in the context of a society with social, economic, and political aspects, which sets the stage for their existence and functioning. • finally, level l9 is again the same on both sides. it reflects the fact that each society exists in a natural environment with both ecological and geophysical aspects. note that this table has chosen a particular set of levels to represent causation all the way from the particle physics level l1 to the environmental level l9. however most scientific studies will be interested in a much more restricted sets of levels: the levels of interest (lois) discussed in sect. 4. given such a choice, one will in general use a more fine-grained set of levels than represented in table 1 . thus for example if the loi is (l4-l6), one might divide that range into a finer set of sublevels. it is a common belief that the lower levels are more real than the higher levels, because bottom up causation from the lower to higher levels is the source of higher level properties. arthur eddington in on the nature of the physical world ( [34] , pp. 5-12) muses on the dual (solid macroscopic/atomic microscopic) nature of his writing desk, and concludes (p. 10) that because of the scientific world view, the external world of physics has thus become a world of shadows. in removing our illusions we have removed the substance, for indeed we have seen that substance is one of our great illusions. however this view is subject to dispute. richard feynman in his book the character of physical law (50] , pp. 125-126) considers whether one level or another is more fundamental, and using a religious metaphor, argues that 'the fundamental laws are no nearer to god than emergent laws'. 5 phil anderson arguably had a similar view. sylvan schweber commented as follows [124] : anderson believes in emergent laws. he holds the view that each level has its own "fundamental" laws and its own ontology. translated into the language of particle physicists, anderson would say each level has its effective lagrangian and its set of quasistable particles. in each level the effective lagrangian -the "fundamental" description at that level -is the best we can do. thus this does not recognize any level as more fundamental than any other. recently, denis noble has proposed a "principle of biological relativity" [105] : all levels one deals with in studying emergence in biology are equally valid, there is no privileged level of causation. effective theories a good way to express this is that there is a valid effective theory 6 (et) at each level. elena castellani gives this definition [25] : an effective theory (et) is a theory which 'effectively' captures what is physically relevant in a given domain, where 'theory' is a set of fundamental equations (or simply some lagrangian) for describing some entities, their behaviour and interactions... more precisely, an et is an appropriate description of the important (relevant) physics in a given region of the parameter space of the physical world. in parallel to the way the functioning of the laws of physics was sketched in [41] , one can characterise an effective theory valid at some level l as follows; an effective theory at a level l is a reliable relation between initial conditions described by effective variables v ∈ and outcomes o ∈ : in a reliable way, whether is an exact or statistical law. it is important to note that an effective theory may have a randomisation element r: where r might for example produce a gaussian distribution. equal causal validity in terms of effective theories for emergent properties p(d), noble's principle [105] as extended in [41] can be restated: table 1 ) represents an effective theory , so each level is equally valid in a causal sense. this implies no level is a fundamental level with priority over the others, and particularly there is not a primary one at the bottom level. this is just as well, because there is no well-established bottom-most physical level to which physics can be reduced [102] . every emergent level equally represents an effective theory. 7 equality of validity of effective theories at every level is possible because causation is not just bottom-up. rather higher level properties p(d) are linked to lower levels by a combination of upwards and downwards causation [39, 41, 105] , which enables emergence of effective laws at each level. upwards emergence this has two different aspects ( [41] , §1.1). 7 while luu and meißner are critical of my claims on emergence [87] , they agree on this point. 6 not to be confused with an effective field theory (eft), see [19, 25, 60] , which is a special case of an et. note that efts such as in [87] cannot deal with emergence in solid state physics, as they do not allow for symmetry breaking. first there is the emergence e of a macro system from its components. in terms of levels, this corresponds to creation of a higher level ln from a lower level ln: that is, → , > . this may lead to topological non-trivial states emerging such as networks, or quantum entanglement may take place. the issue of phase transitions is important here. first order phase transitions occur when spontaneous symmetry breaking ssb occurs leading to the emergent level et having lower symmetries than the underlying et. in terms of the associated micro dynamics m and macrodynamics m, if s is the symmetry set of m, then second there is emergence p of properties of the emergent level ln out of properties of the underlying constituent level ln once ln has come into existence. this corresponds to emergence of a higher level out of a lower level one. some form of coarse graining c of properties may suffice if the higher and lower levels have the same symmetries s, but not if their symmetries are different due to ssb (see [41] ). downward causation a classification of different types of downward causation was given in [37, 39] . here i will rather approach the issue from an viewpoint. there are essentially two kinds of downwards effects that can happen: downward alteration of lower level dynamics l via either constraints or effective potentials, and downward alteration of dynamics at level l by altering the set of lower level variables. constraints and effective potentials the way downward causation by constraints works is that the outcomes p(d) at level l depend on constraints c at the level l arising from conditions at a level of influence . thus when interlevel interactions are taken into account, relation (1) is modified (see [41, (30) essentially the same holds if the effect of the level of influence li on the level l is expressed in terms of an effective potential v(v ) at level l (see [41, (9) ]). thus constraints act as causes [76] . the constraints c may be time independent: c ∕ t = 0 in which case they are structural constraints; or they may be time dependent: c = c (t), c ∕ t ≠ 0, in which case they are signalling or controlling constraints. an important case is feedback control (engineering), which is essentially the same as homeostasis (biology). then the constraints c (t) depend on goals g valid at level l but set at the level of influence li. similarly the potential v(v ) may depend on time-dependent variin both cases the level l is no longer causally complete on its own; at a minimum, only the combination {l,{li} of levels can be causally complete. altered variables the causal effect due to the level of influence li may rather be due to changes in the variables v at level l due to variables v at the higher level li: where the new set {v � } of effective variables at level l may be smaller, larger, or altered. they are smaller if they are changed by deleting lower level elements. this occurs when downward causation by adaptive selection takes place, altering or deleting selected lower level elements according to some selection criterion c. this enables alteration of structures and functions at level l so as to meet new challenges at level li. this plays an important role in enabling by organisms to have agency and choice, enabled by stochasticity, as explained in [106] : choice in the behavior of organisms involves novelty, which may be unpredictable. yet in retrospect, we can usually provide a rationale for the choice. a deterministic view of life cannot explain this. the solution to this paradox is that organisms can harness stochasticity through which they can generate many possible solutions to environmental challenges. they must then employ a comparator to find the solution that fits the challenge. what therefore is unpredictable in prospect can become comprehensible in retrospect. harnessing stochastic and/or chaotic processes is essential to the ability of organisms to have agency and to make choices. they are larger if for example one has downward creation of quasiparticles such as phonons via interlevel wave-particle duality ( [41] and sect. 6.3), which underlies the properties of metals and semi-conductors. this is what carl gillett calls a "foundational determinative relation" [55] . the are altered if the number is the same but the properties of an element changes. when they are bound in an emergent complex their own properties may change (for example, neutrons decay in 11 min when free but last for billions of years when bound in a nucleus), or their interactions with external entities may change (for example electrons bound in an atom interact with light quite differently than a free electron does). downward causation is related to aristotle's formal cause, see [130] , but i will not follow that strand here. to give these rather abstract statements flesh, see many examples given in [39, 104] . downward causation in relation to the key physics-chemistry link is discussed in [86] . multiple realisability of higher level variables at lower levels plays a key role in downward causation [93] . any particular higher level state can be realised in a multiplicity of ways in terms of lower level states. in an engineering or biological cases, a high level need determines the high level effective function that needs to be realised and thus the high level structure that fulfills it. this higher structure and function is then realised by suitable lower level structures and functions, but there are billions of ways this can happen it does not matter which of the equivalence class of lower level realisations is used to fulfill the higher level need, as long as it is indeed fulfilled. consequently you cannot even express the dynamics driving what is happening in a sensible way at a lower level. the issue is not just the huge number lower level entities involved in realising a higher level systems, as characterised by avagadro's number it is the huge different numbers of ways combinations of lower level entities can represent a single higher level variable. any one of the entire equivalence class at the lower level will do. thus it is not the individual variables at the lower level that are the key to what is going on: it is the equivalence class to which they belong. but that whole equivalence class can be describer by a single variable at the macro level, so that is the real effective variable in the dynamics that is going on. this is a kind of interlevel duality: where e − (v − ) is the equivalence class of variables v − at level − corresponding to the one variable v at level l. the effective law at level l for the (possibly vectorial or matrix) variables v at that level is equivalent to a law for an entire equivalence class e − (v − ) of variables at level l-1. it does not translate into an effective law for natural variables v − per se at level l-1. it is important to note the following: one establishes the validity of an for some chosen level l by doing experiments or making observations on phenomena occurring at that level. this involves the experimenter intervening at the level l, hence it is an interlevel interaction. for example a particle physics experiment considers effective laws at level l1 but involves scientists at level l7 and organisations at level l8 acting down to affect things at level l1. consequently, one can make the following important observation: existence and functioning of effective theories at level l does not necessarily imply causal closure of level l. the issue is what determines constraints c, potentials v, and effective variables v ′ that may occur at that level. they may be influenced by other levels. that is what sects. 5 and 6 are about. determining an effective law at level l involves other levels then l. looking in more detail at the hierarchy, it is a hierarchy made of modules (this section) which form networks (next section). it is a modular hierarchy for very good reasons. five principles of complex structure ([16] , §1.3) gives five principles of complex structure, developing from [126] , starting from the idea the role of decomposition: the technique of mastering complexity has been known since ancient times: divide et impera (divide and rule). the five principles, applicable to both engineering and biology, are stated by him to be, (1) modules modularity is the property of a system that has been decomposed into a set of cohesive and loosely coupled modules ( [16] , p. 56). they can be represented by abstractions, where "an abstraction denotes the essential characteristics of an object that distinguish it from all other kinds of objects and thus provide crisply defined conceptual boundaries, relative to the perspective of the viewer. an abstraction focuses on the outside view of an object and so serves to separate an object's essential behavior from its implementation" ( [16] , pp. [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] . they involve encapsulation ( [16] , pp. [50] [51] [52] [53] , that is, the internal details of the module's workings are hidden from the external world), and multiple realisability: the required module functioning can be fulfilled in many ways by its internal structure and variables. hierarchy is a ranking or ordering of abstractions ( [16] , p. 58). a feature of particular interest is that emergent systems may give rise to effective theories that involve topological constraints. indeed this happens quite often because emergent complexity in both engineering and biology often involves interaction networks, and a key feature of such networks is their topological connectivity, described by graph theory. thus for example arthur peacocke points out that in electrical circuit theory there are certain topological constraints, the boundary conditions that one element imposes on another ( [112] , p. 74). they obviously have strongly emergent properties: their functioning does not follow from any local characteristics of the elements that make up the circuit. the electric light won't work until you change its open circuit topology (isomorphic to an open interval) when the switch is off, to a closed topology (isomorphic to a circle) when the switch is on. this macro event than reaches done to alter the flow of billions of electrons at the micro level. networks can be physical networks, or interaction networks. physical networks physical networks are embodied in physical links between nodes, which constrain what interactions can take place by dictating what nodes can interact with what other nodes. thus physical networks in fact create interaction networks by constraining interactions between links. this is the key structure-function relationship of engineering and biology. examples in engineering are computer architecture [132] , computer networks [83] , and artificial neural networks [73] . the case of importance in biology is the nervous system [59] and neural networks [63] . interaction networks interaction networks occur due to the presence of a variety of reagents that selectively interact with each other. this requires firstly a container that keeps the reagents within interaction distance of each other, rather than just diffusing away, and second the presence of an appropriate set of reagent that do indeed interact with each other. a key role is then played by selectively letting specific reagents enter or exit the container so as to control their interaction densities. on a large scale, examples of importance in engineering are purification plants, chemical engineering reaction vessels, water treatment plants, sewage treatment plants. in biology, they arguably are the endocrine system, controlling signalling, and the digestive system, controlling metabolism at the systems level [59] , and on a larger scale, ecological networks [75] . on a small scale, there are many interaction networks in cell biology [18] . these are crucially dependent on the existence of cells bounded by cell walls, that serve as the necessary reaction containers. they have ion channels imbedded in those walls that control movement of ions in and out of the cells, and molecular channels controlling movement of molecules in and out. they include • gene regulatory networks [24, 75, 139] , also known as transcription networks [3] , • metabolic networks [18, 75, 139] , • cell signalling networks [11, 18] , • protein interaction networks [18, 75] , • signal transduction networks [18, 75] . these networks are the heart of cell biology [85] and underlie how information flows and logic underlie biological functioning as emphasized by [30, 45, 109] . networks and hierarchy networks may have a hierarchical character in that subnetworks can often be identified within an overall network, and so define levels within the network [111, 121, 142] . this is an interesting topic i will not develop further here except to remark that firstly, subnetworks include network motifs [3, 94] , which are small subnetworks of particular functional significance. for example they include the autoregulation motif, which is nothing other than feedback control ( [3] , pp. [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] and the feed-forward loop motif ( [3] , pp. . they may contain higher-dimensional interactions characterised by clique complexes [118] . networks may also contain hubs, central nodes of importance [75] . their nature is highly dynamic [32] . causation because interaction networks are directed graphs (i.e. the edges between nodes have orientations), they represent causal effects, where causation is defined as [113, 114] . reference [67] shows how such diagrams can be used to exemplify causal entailment in a diverse range of processes: enzyme action, construction of automata, and ribosomal polypeptide synthesis through the genetic code. their causal effects can be tested by experiment, where this is possible (vary conditions at one node and show that, ceteris parabus (i.e. conditions at other links to the node are unchanged) this results in a reliable change at another node. when this is not possible, one can use counterfactual arguments: demonstrating that as a result of the nature of the network links this should indeed be the outcome if one were to make such a change. this is the kind of argument i will use to claim that both upward and downward relations between levels are also causal ( table 3) . networks and strong emergence because of their systemic properties, biochemical networks display strong emergence [17] . in examining the issue of causal closure of properties p, one must have the context clearly in mind. to do so, it is useful to define the domain of interest (doi) of such study. this has three quite different aspects. first, there will a specific topic of interest (toi) one wishes to investigate. for example, it might be physics or engineering or chemistry or biology. in physics, one might have in mind atomic physics or condensed matter physics or plasma physics; in biology, molecular biology or physiology or neuroscience or population evolution. or one might want to investigate relations between various of these topics. in this paper, the interest is the nature of causal closure in the relation between physics, engineering, and biology. second, given a choice of topic of interest, the domain of interest doi of a system of interest s consists firstly of interaction limits for s with its surroundings, and secondly of time limits on the duration when we are interested in the behaviour of s. together these comprise spacetime limitations (sect. 3.1), leading to effectively isolated systems in the case of physics (sect. 3.2) and effective spatial closure in the case of biology and engineering (sect. 3.3). thirdly, there will be a choice of levels of interest (loi). the issue of lois is the focus of this paper, and is discussed in the following sect. 4. to be of physical interest, s must be spatially limited. although they are often talked about, systems of infinite extent do not occur in the real universe [46] . 8 spacetime boundaries define the time and spatial domain we are interested in in relation to s. from a spacetime viewpoint, this is a world tube of finite radius r that surrounds s, large enough to contain s and all the elements strongly interacting with it, bounded by an initial time t i and final time t f defined in a suitable way. this governs the kinds of interactions it can have with other systems. time limitations we may be interested in short or long timescales characterised by the starting time t i and ending time t f , depending on what we wish to study. we may be interested in, • evolutionary processes e whereby the family of systems of similar type to s came into existence over long timescales via reproduction with variation followed by selection; • developmental processes e whereby a specific system s came into existence through developmental or manufacturing processes, or perhaps by self assembly; • functional processes whereby the properties p of the system s considered over short timescales emerge from the underlying physics. this is the focus of this paper. each involves very different choices of the timescale δt ∶= t f − t i relevant to our study. isolated systems causal closure of a system s cannot happen if uncontrolled influences arrive from the surroundings: as these influences vary with time, they will cause changes in the the state of the system with time that cannot be predicted from a knowledge of the properties of the system alone. the system is not causally closed. physics deals with this by introducing the idea of an isolated system. this is usually expressed by giving limits on any incoming influences "at infinity", for example such conditions are imposed in studying electromagnetic and gravitational radiation. however, as just stated, infinity is not a valid physics concept. one should instead refer to finite infinity i [36] : a world tube of finite radius r i ≫ r chosen so that incoming radiation and matter will not seriously interfere with s. 9 the dynamics of the system will then be autonomous except for small perturbations due to incoming matter and radiation crossing i, which can be treated as small effects. the dynamics of s can be treated as an autonomous system, affected by small incoming perturbations over i. however, there are two problems with this idea: one to do with physics, and one to do with engineering and biology. causal domains the first is that famously, in general relativity, causal domains are determined by null cones rather than timelike tubes [62] . why have i not defined the causal limits, which are basic in term of causal closure, in terms of null surfaces rather than a timelike world tube? the answer is that on astronomical scales, effective causal limits are indeed given by timelike world tubes rather than null surfaces. on astronomical scales at recent times, the dynamic effects of radiation are very small compared with those of matter. we get a very usable i by choosing r i to be about 1 megaparsec in comoving coordinates [47] . nothing outside there has had a significant effect on the history of our galaxy or the solar system. yes some radiation and matter is coming in, but it is negligible compared to the energies involved in daily life. the one form of radiation of significance for the world is light from the sun, which comes from well within those limits: 1 astronomical unit might indeed suffice for local physics. the radiative energy coming from greater distances has negligible dynamical effects on earth. a timelike world tube of radius 1 au will do just fine in terms of considering causal closure of the solar system. isolated systems: laboratories however physics practice works in a different way: the key concept is an isolated system in a laboratory. it's a system that is in fact interacting strongly with the environment (sect. 3.3), but that interaction is strictly controlled so that it is highly predictable. the system is shielded from influences outside the laboratory as far as possible. this then enables the results of experiments to also be highly predictable. and that is what enables the determination of the effective theories that hold at a level l. examples are the expensive isolation and cooling systems underlying the success of quantum optics experiments. engineering and biology as open systems the real problem is different. it is that no biological system can be closed: they have by their nature to be open systems. and the same is true for engineering systems. in these cases, the 'isolated system' paradigm is simply wrong. life cannot exist as an isolated system. biological systems are inherently open systems interacting with the environment [65, 112, pp. 10-11] ) states, biological organisations can only maintain themselves in existence if there is a flow of energy and this flow requires that the system not be in equilibrium and therefore spatially inhomogeneous. 10 the effect of the outside world is not negligible. on the contrary, it is essential to biological functioning. it cannot be treated as a perturbation. the biosphere experiences incoming high grade radiation from the sun and radiates outgoing low grade heat to the dark sky, and this is its energy source enabling it to function thermodynamically [115] . organisms need a flow of material in, and, because of the second law of thermodynamics (essentially: as time progresses, matter and energy will be transformed from usable to unusable forms), need to dispose of waste matter and heat resulting from internal non-equilibrium metabolic processes. a living system s must take in materials and energy from the surrounding environment e and dispose of waste matter and energy to e: in summary, living systems are essentially interacting systems. the same is true for engineering systems, because they do work of some kind. reliable interactions they must therefore interact strongly with an environment that is stable enough that the interactions with the environment are reliable and reasonably constant so they do not disrupt the dynamics of the system over time. in physics this is the concept of a heath bath or thermal reservoir. you are in contact with an environment but don't need to take its dynamics into account because it is in a state usually assumed to be static, characterised only by a constant temperature t; and it is so large that the system s has negligible influence on it state. 11 life: interaction limits how then does one limit those interactions to those that will enable life to sustain itself? humberto maturana and francisco varela essentially dealt with this by introducing the idea of autopoiesis [91] , which inter alia expresses the idea of causal closure in terms of system interaction with its environment. the key point is how does one define the boundary of a system in this context. instead of choosing a spacetime tube of some chosen radius r as in the astronomy case, one chooses a system boundary b that characterizes the system as being effectively autonomous. this underlies the meaning of level l8 in the hierarchy of emergence (table 1 , sect. 2.1). a person has a skin that is her physical boundary with the outside world, but still allows interaction with it. energy and matter transfer takes place across the boundary. a machine similarly has a boundary that defines its limits, but will have some form of energy input enabling it to do work, and in many cases complex cooling devices to get waste heat out (paradoxically, they may consume large amounts of energy). but this idea extends down to other levels, for example it holds also at the device level/cellular level l5 and the component level/organ level l6. for example, a cell is the core of biology. it exists as an entity with its own integrity, characterised by the cell wall which allows controlled ingress and egress of materials and energy, yet interacts strongly with the environment. how then does life handle functioning in this context? the environment must be sufficiently stable so as to allow effective predictability. this is the case when the system is not causally closed but has predictable interactions with the environment that makes its own functions predictable. it has an environment that can be treated as predictable up to perturbations. the environment may change with time, but if so, slowly enough to allow adaptation to the changing situation. this is often the case, and is what on the one hand allows living systems to flourish, and on the other allows biology to be a genuine scientific subject [23] . the exceptions but that is not always the case: take covid-19 as an example. that started at the social level (l9) in one house, then spread worldwide via aircraft affecting life world wide and thereby affecting in a downward way all the biomolecules (l4) and electrons (l1) in the bodies of doctors and nurses and patients effected. but additionally it affected the engineering side by closing down thousands of flights across the world, thereby reaching down to affect all the billions of atoms (l3) and particles (l1) that make up those aircraft: a classic example of the interlevel causation i turn to next. as far as predictability is concerned, the system s has reliable interactions with the environment and so is predictable most of the time, except when we this is not the case. predictability holds when all things are equal, but there is no guarantee this will be the situation. and that is the best we can do. 12 elaborating, investopaedia states this concept as follows: 12 and no this could not be predicted in principle in a strictly bottom up way if we knew the detailed positions and momenta of all the particles in our causal past to utmost precision, for multiple reasons [41, 42] . these are strongly emergent phenomena, unpredictable even in principle. ceteris paribus is a latin phrase that generally means 'all other things being equal.' in economics, it acts as a shorthand indication of the effect one economic variable has on another, provided all other variables remain the same. ... ceteris paribus assumptions help transform an otherwise deductive social science into a methodologically positive 'hard' science. it creates an imaginary system of rules and conditions from which economists can pursue a specific end. put another way; it helps the economist circumvent human nature and the problems of limited knowledge'. in other words, effective spatial closure works except when it doesn't. unpredictability happens when black swan events take place, possible when there is a fattailed rather than a gaussian distribution [131] , and with major significance at the macro level. and when it doesn't work, the effects chain all the way down from level l8 to the atomic level l3 and particle level l1 in table 1 , as in the case of the coronavirus pandemic. setting this aside, the key conceptual issue i will deal with in this paper is the relation of the causal closure of emergent properties p to levels in the hierarchy of emergence. effective theories and existence of levels is discussed in sect (sect. 2.2) is a set of variables and equations representing interactions and constraints at a particular level l, such that initial data implies a reliable outcome at that level. it is the possibility of existence of an effective theory (1) at each level l (the dynamics at that level is determined at that level) that underlies the very concept of levels in the first place. as commented by peacocke ([112] , p. 10), following from [126] natural hierarchies are more often than not 'nearly decomposable' -that is, the interactions among the sub-systems (the 'parts') are relatively weak compared withe the interactions among the subsystems, a property which simplifies there behaviour and description. the fact that such levels exist is a consequence of the nature of the underlying physical laws and the values of the constants of nature [136] . it allows the existence of the modular hierarchical structures that are the core foundation of complexity (sects. 2.1, 2.6). reference [126] defines a hierarchical system as follows, quoted in ( [112] , p. 249): 'a hierarchical system: a system of composed of inter-related subsystems, each of the latter being in turn, hierarchical in structure until we reach some lowest level of elementary subsystem (the choice of this lowest level he regarded as arbitrary). this is what i have taken for granted above. while it has all the levels shown in table 1 (sect. 2.1), we usually do not want to consider them all at once. reference [15] says it thus: thus we take it as a given that when a portion of the universe is selected for study, be it a gas or a galaxy, we are allowed to blissfully ignore what is going on at scales that are much larger, or indeed much smaller, than the one we are considering. that is what i am formalizing by defining the concept of levels of interest (loi). they are defined as follows: a loi is defined by its top level tl and its bottom level bl, thus where the union sign " ∪ " means include all levels between tl and bl. some studies are unilevel: tl = bl, and some are explicitly interlevel: > • one can validly define such a loi regardless of what levels you choose, because the levels are equally causally valid (sect. 2.2). • your choice will depend on your topic of interest (toi) (see sect. 3). it is helpful if the choice of levels is made explicit, e.g. loi(3-5) covers levels 3 to 5. • then one can for the purposes of studying the dynamics at those levels legitimately ignore higher and lower levels, in the sense to be explored below. • this is possible because the levels effectively decouple in the sense of allowing valid effective theories at each level l. • however this does not give you the right to deny the validity of levels that lie outside your levels of interest. • there is no guarantee that causal completion will occur by including only those levels characterised by your choice of loi. that is the topic of interlevel causal closure, which i discuss below (sect. 5). are there limits on the lois one can choose? one can choose to investigate any desired lois, not investigating or take for granted the interactions that will inevitably occur from higher and lower levels. this is done to establish s. for example noble [103] "modeling the heart-from genes to cells to the whole organ" chooses to investigate the range of levels stated, namely levels l5 to l8 in the hierarchy of emergence (table 1) , and not for example on the one hand the interactions between protons and electrons that make this possible, and on the other hand the mental and social influences that will inevitably be having an effect on how the heart is functioning. what he does do is investigate the interlevel relations within the levels loi(5-8) he has chosen, because that is the domain of physiology. other examples are shown in table 2 . physics right down to level l1 always underlies what is happening, even if it lies outside the levels of interest to you. what happens in the real world right down to the physics levels l1-l3 is always influenced by what happens at higher levels including l9, even if that is not what interests you in your particular studies. what is a sensible doi depends on conditions. the suitable choice of lois will follow. this is the context within which "causal completeness of physics" must be evaluated. strongly interacting levels there is a basic problem with lois, however. that is the fact that, as mentioned above, every level interacts with every other level! the choices one makes relates inter alia as to whether one wants to answer how questions, why questions, or both (sect. 4.5). there is a practical way out that i discuss in sect. 5.3 by introducing the idea of effective causal closure. in order to examine the emergence of machines on the engineering side and organisms on the biology side, all one needs is newton's laws of motion, maxwell's equations, galilean gravity, and maybe the schrödinger equation ( [84] , §4.1); in [41] . that is, level l3 is an adequate base. all engineering and biology emerges from this level, it is the lowest level engineers and biologists need to study. as explained in [41] and sect. 2.3, conversely engineering and biology reach down to shape outcomes at level l3 via time dependent potentials or constraints. however levels l3 and l2 emerge from the quantum field theory and the standard model of particle physics at level l1 [110] . thus l1 is a deeper foundation of emergence. however it is essentially decoupled from everyday life [4, 84] . nevertheless outcomes at level l1 too must also be shaped in a downward way by engineering and biological variables, via outcomes at level l3. but this is not the bottom. underlying l1 is some theory of fundamental physics at level l0, a "theory of everything" (toe) [141] : maybe string theory/m theory, maybe not. there are variety of competing theories on offer [102] . this is the ultimate source of the emergence of dynamic properties p(d) in engineering and biology (using the notation of ( [41] , §2.2). it affects us every day. these lie outside the lois of engineers and biologists. that is just as well, as we do not know what the answer is at level l0, even though it underlies all physical emergence. as explained above, it suffices to deal with effective theories that hold at higher levels. at the top: cosmology and existence e consider isaac newton seeing an apple drop. this occurs for a variety of reasons: the law of gravity acting on the apple, the light rays that convey this image to his retina, the analysis of the image by his brain, and so on. but there are far deeper underlying issues. why does the apple exist? why does the earth exist? why does the solar system and the galaxy exist? why does the universe exist and have the nature it does? these are all the background reasons why the apple fell, and why isaac newton existed for that matter. these questions of how everything came into being (e) is the domain of cosmology [117] . it deals with issues such as, where do elements such as helium and carbon come from? how did the galaxy, the sun, and the earth arise? the philosophy of cosmology [38] considers issues such as why is physics of such a nature as to allow life to exist? reference [128] . particularly: why are the constants of nature [136] of such a character as to allow the hierarchical structure in table 1 to emerge? thus cosmology affects us every day by underlying our existence. everyday effects of cosmology p there are more immediate issues as well, in the relation of cosmology to everyday life [36] : why is the sky dark at night, serving as a heat sink for the earth's waste energy? this is crucial to the functioning of the biosphere ( [115] , pp. 411-417). why is there an arrow of time? references [29, 44, 115] ? this is crucial to all macro level physics, biology, and chemistry. both are due to the cosmological context. thus cosmology affects the emergence of properties p in engineering and biology today. the point then is that while it does indeed have a major causal effect on daily life [125] , this is a rock solid relation that does not change with time. it is a fixed unchanging background that does not alter effective laws as time passes. it is thus not a case of ceteris parabus 13 (c.f. sect. 3.3) and so can be taken for granted and not considered further when investigating causal closure in engineering, biology, and physics. an issue in choosing lois is if one is interested in how questions or why questions. how questions consider physical interactions on the one hand, and mechanisms on the other. thus they will relate to levels l1-l7 in table 1 , including l7 because that relates to the integration of systems to produce the organism as a who [120, 122] . why questions relate to motivation, meaning, and philosophical issues. thus they will relate to levels l7-l8 in table 1 , including l7 because this is the level where as well as philosophy, psychology and motivation come in [33, 79] and l8 where the causal power of social structures enters [35] . there is of course a trend for some strong reductionists to deny that the why questions are valid or have any real meaning. from the viewpoint of this paper, that simply means that they themselves have a restricted set of lois that excludes those higher levels. because of the equal validity of levels espoused in [41, 105] , and in this paper, that restricted set of interests does not provide a justification for denying the validity of the levels with effective theories outside their particular set of interests. the crucial concept in this paper is that of interlevel causal closure of properties p(d). i first consider causation and causal closure (sect. 5.1) and the nature of biology (sect. 5.2). then i consider interlevel causal closure in the case of biology (sect. 5.3), because this is where it is clearest and has been discussed most. i introduce here the key concept of effective causal closure. a stronger relation is the idea of inextricably intertwined levels(iils) which i discuss in sect. 5.4. 13 unless we live in a false vacuum in which case local physics could suddenly change in a way that might wipe out all life [133] . causation in order to consider causal closure, one must first have a view on how one justifies claims of causation. this has been laid out in depth by pearl [113, 114] . causal inference is based in causal models (directed graphs) validated by experimental intervention, or when that is not possible, by counterfactual arguments. causal models here one consider causal models of the influences at work . in effect, the diagram of the hierarchy of levels table 1 in sect. 2 is such a (very simplified) model, when one introduces the arrows of both upward emergence (left) and downward constraint or control (right). to develop this approach more fully, one needs to expand table 3 to a hierarchical diagram that represents the modular nature of the hierarchy (sect. 2.6). this is a very worthwhile project, but i will not attempt it here. it is roughly indicated in ( [112] , pp. [8] [9] [10] [11] [247] [248] , and examples are in ( [18] , pp. 6, 10-11, 22, 95, 110, 132, 160) . intervention here one actually intervenes at level li and reliably observes a resultant change at level lf. this has been done both for effective theories at each level l, and in many case for both upwards and downwards interlevel effects. one can do this also using digital computer models; for example [51, 105] have done this to show downwards causation occurring in computer models of heart function. counterfactual views [48] here one considers what would happen if one intervened at level li, and plausibly argues that this will cause an actual difference at level lf, when upward causation takes place: > (left column bu) or when downward causation takes place: > (right column td). this has been used to establish that downward causal effects exist, e.g. [22, 43, 45] . causal closureconsider a multilevel system s (which could have only one level). note that this includes the physicalist idea of causal closure where all follows from a single lowest physical level ll, for that is the case = , chosen as l1 in table 1 . causal closure requires effective predictability on the one hand (sect. 3.3), and an effectively causally closed set of levels on the other, which concept i now consider. the issue: two opposing strands • there are no isolated sets of levels, as just discussed (sect. 4.4). causal closure as just defined is an ideal that does not occur in practice unless one takes ll = l1, hl = l9: you are giving data for the whole thing. • however there are in practice preferred restricted sets levels with a special integrity in terms of causal closure (see the comments just after table 1 ). how do we deal with this tension? the clearest domain in which to tackle this is biology (sect. 5.3). the lessons from there carry over to engineering (sect. 6.2), and physics (sect. 6.4). biological organisms have purpose, as stated by nobel prize winning biologist hartwell et al. [61] 14 : although living systems obey the laws of physics and chemistry, the notion of function or purpose differentiates biology from other natural sciences. organisms exist to reproduce, whereas, outside religious belief, rocks and stars have no purpose. selection for function has produced the living cell, with a unique set of properties that distinguish it from inanimate systems of interacting molecules. cells exist far from thermal equilibrium by harvesting energy from their environment. they are composed of thousands of different types of molecule. they contain information for their survival and reproduction, in the form of their dna. their interactions with the environment depend in a byzantine fashion on this information, and the information and the machinery that interprets it are replicated by reproducing the cell. many biological concepts and language are often sui generis and not reducible to physics and chemistry, certainly not in the form to which they apply to simpler and restricted atomic and molecular systems. in the case of biology, unless the concepts considered include purpose and function, it will miss the essence of what is going on, as pointed out by [61] . you also need to introduce the concepts "alive" and "dead", which do not occur at any lower level than the cellular level in biology, and do not occur at any physics level. without this concept you cannot for example discuss the theory of natural selection [92] . upward and downward causation as just stated, all biological entities have purpose or function, and that controls in a top-down way what happens at lower levels [105] reaching down to the underlying physical levels [45] . the physics does not control the higher levels, rather-without any violation of the laws of physics-it does what the biology asks it do. this functioning occurs via a combinations of upwards and downwards causation [104, 105] , for example gene regulation taking place on the basis of the state of the heart [51] or the brain [78] . this dynamic reaches down to the molecular level and then the underlying electron level. the enabling factors are black boxing [7] to get higher level logic out of lower level logic, together with time dependent constraints at the lower level that are regulated by higher level biological variables [45] . together they underlie the emergent effective laws at each level l in biology. preferred levels the cellular level l5 is a key level in biology: cells have an organisation and integrity of their own, and are living integral entities that are the basic units of life. they interact with other cells at the same level, and react to their environment in appropriate ways. in multicellular organisms they depend on higher levels for nutrition, materials, waste disposal, and signals as to what to do. but they can be treated as modules (sect. 2.6) with an integrity of their own that responds to inputs and produces outputs. the associated set of biological levels, taking the underlying physics for granted, is the set of levels l4-l5. similarly the level of individual organisms l7 again represents a level of emergent integrity. individuals are entities that can be treated as autonomous entities that respond to environmental cues (from the levels above) and other individuals (at the same level). the associated set of biological levels, taking the underlying physics for granted, is the set of levels l4-l7. so the issue is, how does this kind of autonomy emerge at these particular levels, given that all levels are interacting? what characterizes these special sets of levels? the key point as to what occurs is organisational closure in biological organisms [100, 101] : the central aim of this paper consists in arguing that biological organisms realize a specific kind of causal regime that we call 'organisational closure'; i.e., a distinct level of causation, operating in addition to physical laws, generated by the action of material structures acting as constraints. we argue that organisational closure constitutes a fundamental property of biological systems since even its minimal instances are likely to possess at least some of the typical features of biological organisation as exhibited by more complex organisms. this is a distinct causal regime, as explained in [98] : in biological systems, closure refers to a holistic feature such that their constitutive processes, operations and transformations (1) depend on each other for their production and maintenance and (2) collectively contribute to determine the conditions at which the whole organization can exist. according to several theoretical biologists, the concept of closure captures one of the central features of biological organization since it constitutes, as well as evolution by natural selection, an emergent and distinctively biological causal regime. this is developed further in [95] , identifying biological organisation as closure of constraints we propose a conceptual and formal characterisation of biological organisation as a closure of constraints. we first establish a distinction between two causal regimes at work in biological systems: processes, which refer to the whole set of changes occurring in non-equilibrium open thermodynamic conditions; and constraints, those entities which, while acting upon the processes, exhibit some form of conservation (symmetry) at the relevant time scales. we then argue that, in biological systems, constraints realise closure, i.e. mutual dependence such that they both depend on and contribute to maintaining each other. thus biological organisation is an interlevel affair, involving downward causation as well as upwards emergence, thus enabling teleology [12, 99] . from the viewpoint of this paper, these authors are identifying specific sets of levels where effective interlevel causal closure occurs: the topmost level links to the bottom-most level to close the dynamic loop that leads to biological emergence. i will quote three more papers that have essentially the same view. reference [66] emphasizes this property in the case of the cell: [the] property of self-fabrication is the most basic expression of biological anticipation and of life itself. self-fabricating systems must be closed to efficient causation... i identify the classes of efficient biochemical causes in the cell and show how they are organized in a hierarchical cycle, the hallmark of a system closed to efficient causation. broadly speaking, the three classes of efficient causes are the enzyme catalysts of covalent metabolic chemistry, the intracellular milieu that drives the supramolecular processes of chaperoneassisted folding and self-assembly of polypeptides and nucleic acids into functional catalysts and transporters, and the membrane transporters that maintain the intracellular milieu, in particular its electrolyte composition. you need all these components and levels for the thing to work. reference [49] emphasizes that multi-level homeostasis is part of the mix: two broad features are jointly necessary for autonomous agency: organisational closure and the embodiment of an objective-function providing a 'goal': so far only organisms demonstrate both. organisational closure has been studied (mostly in abstract), especially as cell autopoiesis and the cybernetic prin-ciples of autonomy, but the role of an internalised 'goal' and how it is instantiated by cell signalling and the functioning of nervous systems has received less attention. here i add some biological 'flesh' to the cybernetic theory and trace the evolutionary development of step-changes in autonomy: (1) homeostasis of organisationally closed systems; (2) perception-action systems; (3) action selection systems; (4) cognitive systems; (5) memory supporting a selfmodel able to anticipate and evaluate actions and consequences. each stage is characterised by the number of nested goal-directed control-loops embodied by the organism, summarised as will-nestedness. finally [107] argue for circular causality: we argue that (1) emergent phenomena are real and important; (2) for many of these, causality in their development and maintenance is necessarily circular; (3) the circularity occurs between levels of organization; (4) although the forms of causation can be different at different levels, there is no privileged level of causation a priori: the forms and roles of causation are open to experimental investigation; (5) the upward and downward forms of causation do not occur in sequence, they occur in parallel (i.e. simultaneously); (6) there is therefore no privileged direction of emergence -the upper levels constrain the events at the lower levels just as much as the lower levels are necessary for those upper-level constraints to exist. modern biology has confirmed [...] that organisms harness stochasticity at low levels to generate their functionality. this example shows in fine detail why higher-level causality can, in many cases, be seen to be more important than lower-level processes. this is closely related to the idea of autonomous systems, characterized by their organizational and operational closure [138] , where [135] organizational closure refers to the self-referential (circular and recursive) network of relations that defines the system as a unity, and operational closure to the re-entrant and recurrent dynamics of such a system which is just the idea above. this discussion is related to the idea of autopoiesisa system capable of reproducing and maintaining itself-mentioned above, and to the idea of autocatalytic sets [69, 70] . however i will not develop those links here. rather my purpose is to claim that exactly the same applies in engineering systems in general, and even in physics in some cases. that is what i develop below. given that it is understood i am considering causal closure in terms of levels and lois, i can summarise as follows 15 : [131] that lie outside the normal operating environment. thus this characterizes the set of levels needed for an entity (a cell or an organism) to function successfully. there is then no preferred level enabling the system to function: they all equally enable this to happen [107] . reference [57] argue that in such cases, while the effective theories are contained in the range {bl-tl}, one needs different models at each level: no single mathematical model can account for behaviors at all spatial and temporal scales, and the modeler must therefore combine different mathematical models relying on different boundary conditions. these are the different s for each level. but note that one then needs data d for each level l too. thus the set of levels where data is given has to be the same as the set of levels where ecc occurs. thus in the definition of effective causal closure just given, one should set {bl-tl} = {ll-hl}. reference [57] give the examples of epithelial sheets and mechanical modeling of gastrulation. to be clear: one is free to work with an effective theory , with appropriate data for that level, at any level chosen l in the range {bl-tl}; but one only gets effective causal closure by including that full set of levels and data. when does this occur in biology? there are two cases where ecc occurs in biology. • cells the cellular level is the lowest level showing all the attributes of life. it is a case of ecc involving levels l4-l5. • individuals the organism level is the major coherent emergent level in life, assuming it is a multicellular organism such as a human being. this is a case of ecc involving levels l4-l7. however there is an interesting different view: that human beings are essentially social beings, so that in fact it is a mistake to view them as being capable of living on their own, as is implied by that categorisation, thus berger and luckmann [10] wrote about the social construction of reality: our worldview-an inescapable part of our nature shaping our actions-is crucially shaped by the society in which we live. merlin donald's book a mind so rare [33] essentially agrees, as does andy clark's book supersizing the mind [26] and [108] . in short, top-down effects from society so crucially shape our being that they are not just perturbations of independent existence: they are essential, and that characterisation is wrong. the correct ecc statement is • social human beings human beings are essentially social, and are in fact a case of ecc involving levels l4-l8. ignoring the lower levelsa further key comment regards the other end of the scale: why is it legitimate to ignore levels l1-l3 here? the answer is the existence of quantum and classical protectorates that are governed by emergent rules and are insensitive to microscopics [84] . this is another way of affirming the causal efficacy of the effective theories at each emergent level l. however the effectively causally closed levels will reach down to determine what happens at those levels via time dependent constraints (4) [45] . in summary: interlevel effective causal closure as identified here is a key feature of biological functioning, emphasized in [8] and [96] . [24] (where it is not identified as such, but is there) and [123] , where the relation is made explicit. setting the data one final issue remains: we don't in practice set data at all the levels ll-hl required in a particular context. there is no way we could in fact set the data at the lower levels. and there is no need for us to do so. this comment applies both in theory and in practice. that is, it is a statement both about epistemology (what we can know) and ontology (what we can do). a higher level may be essential to a lower level an important possibility is that the properties p of two levels {bl,tl} may have an essential relationship with each other: each level cannot function without the other, as in some cases of symbiosis. consider an individual human being. it is no surprise that the level l7 of the individual cannot exist without the level l5 of cells, for human beings are made out of cells and depend on them for their existence and physiological functioning. but the fact is that the converse is also true: the cells cannot exist and function without the existence of the body that they comprise. the reason is that cells have specialised for specific functions, and cannot survive on their own. they are supplied with oxygen-laden blood by the lungs, heart, and indeed the entire circulatory system, without which they die in a matter of minutes (as happens if a heart attack occurs). thus levels l5 and l6 are inextricably intertwined. but organs are part of the individual and won't function without systemic integration at that level. hence levels {l5-l7} are in fact inextricably intertwined. now an interesting issue arises: ecc occurs for levels l5-l7. should i have included l4 in the inextricably intertwined levels? certainly level l4 is required in order that cells exist at level l5, but is the other way round true also? i believe one can claim it is, because the gene regulatory networks that control production of proteins at level l4 are at level l5, and they would not exist if it were not for their functioning. thus the real inextricably intertwined set of levels is {l4-l7}: the same as the ecc set of levels. there is however this difference: the ecc relation is ceteris parabus, as explained above. the iil relation is not, it is essential, whatever happens at other levels, these levels are crucially dependent on each other. the discussion in the last two sections makes clear a set of principles that apply equally to engineering, and that is what i will show in this section. to make the discussion concrete, i will consider the case of digital computers. but it will apply equally to other branches of engineering: automobiles, aircraft, chemical plant, water supply systems, sewerage systems, and so on. i consider the nature of digital computers (sect. 6.1), where interlevel effective causal closure again occurs (sect. 6.2). inextricably intertwined levels again occur in computers (sect. 6.3), and in physics and chemistry (sect. 6.4). the relevant hierarchy [43, 132] 16 is shown in table 4 . upward and downward causation the dynamics of a computer is driven by the algorithms encoded in the programs loaded, together with the data used by those programs. these control the flow of electrons through gates at the transistor level via a combinations of upward and downward causation ( [39] , chap. 2, [43] ). this enables the emergent effective laws at each level l. different algorithms result in different flows of electrons, as can be demonstrated by running different computer programs which produce different patterns of electron flows through transistors at level l2, and cause major effects at social levels l8 and l9 [88] . the bigger picture the fact that the higher levels {l8,l9} reach down to affect what happens at the lower levels {l0-l6} is stated in [43] as follows: causal closure in the case of computers: in the real world, it is only the combination of physics with its logical, social, psychological, and engineering contexts (which includes the values guiding policy) that can be causally complete, because it is this whole that determines what computer programs will be written and what data utilised, hence what electron flows will take place in integrated circuits, as per the discussion in this paper. this is in parallel to the interlevel causal closure that takes place in biology, as discussed in sect. 5.3. reference [43] gives a specific example: as a specific example: the amount of money that can be dispersed to you from an atm will be limited by an agreement you have reached with your bank. the program used to control the atm will take into account the existence of such limits, and the specific amount you are able to take out in a given time period will be limited by a logical and operation linking this agreed amount to the amount of money in your account. thus these abstract variables will control electron flows in both the bank computers and the atm dispenser mechanism. every relevant abstract variable has physical counterparts; in other words, it?s realized by some physical properties on some relevant physical substrate. but crucially there is much more than this: there is the whole issue of the purposes computers are used for in society, from controlling manufacturing to enabling the internet, cell phones, and social media, and they way that this whole enterprise is shaped by the values of those that control the system. the book coders [134] considers "the morality and politics of code, including its implications for civic life and the economy. programmers shape our everyday behavior: when they make something easy to do, we do more of it. when they make it hard or impossible, we do less of it." all this is expressed in the flows of electrons through gates at the digital levels l2-l3. nevertheless, just as in the case of biology, effective causal closure can occur when interlevel causation results in a high degree of autonomy of operation. analogously to the case of biology, one can state to an autonomous system that do not destroy its autonomy, and (ii) it is a ceteris parabus relation, as discussed in §3.3. it can be destroyed by black swan events that lie outside the normal operating environment. the two emergent levels with their own causal integrity emerging through ecc are the integrated circuit level (l4), the equivalent of the cell in biology, with ecc given by levels l2-l4; and the computer level (l5), the equivalent of the individual in biology, with ecc given by levels l2-l5. but just as in the case of biology one can make a case that one should really include the societal level, the same applies here too. the quotes above suggest that ecc for computers really only occurs for levels l2-l9, including the highest level because of the effect of the world wide web. engineering and applied physics the same kind of considerations apply to all branches of engineering, and equally to all branches of applied physics. the applications (socially determined at level l8) determine what physical effects occur (levels l1-l3). inextricably intertwined levels (iils) do these occur in this case too, as they did in biology? here there is a major difference: the transistors do not depend on the computer for their continued existence, whereas cells depend on the organism for their existence. while in biology iils link the individual as a whole to the molecular level, here they also occur, but only at the levels l0-l1 in table 4 . the reason for that relation is that downward emergence of key properties at the electron level l0 takes place, due to properties of the crystal level l1, as explained in detail in [41] . this is called a "foundational determinative relation" (fdr) by carl gillett, see [55] . in more detail, quasiparticles such as phonons exist due to the broken symmetries of the emergent lattice structure. they come into being as effective particles at the lower level l0 because they are dynamically equivalent to collective oscillations of a level l1 structure (the crystal lattice) ( [127] , pp. [82] [83] . this is an essentially quantum theory phenomenon. one can think of it as an interlevel wave(macro)-particle(micro) duality. reference [52] say it this way: phonons [are] quasi-particles that have some claim to be emergent, not least because the way in which they relate to the underlying crystal is almost precisely analogous to the way in which quantum particles relate to the underlying quantum field theory. stephen blundell states the key point thus ( [15] , p. 244): so now we come to the key question: are these emergent particles real? from the perspective of quantum field theory, the answer is a resounding yes. each of these particles emerges from a wave-like description in a manner that is entirely analogous to that of photons. these emergent particles behave like particles: you can scatter other particles off them. electrons will scatter off phonons, an interaction that is involved in superconductivity. neutrons can be used to study the dispersion relation of both phonons and magnons using inelastic scattering techniques. yes, they are the result of a collective excitation of an underlying substrate. but so are 'ordinary' electrons and photons, which are excitations of quantum field modes. as a consequence, the levels {l0, l1} are inextricably intertwined. another way of stating this is the way that bloch's theorem [14] shows how the crystal structure causes the electron wave functions to have a basis consisting of bloch eigenstates with the same periodicity as the crystal. this is a proof that the solid state physics occurring in digital computers is a case where causal closure is impossible at the micro level l0 alone. it also shows that in general the set of iils is not the same as the eccs. while these considerations apply to digital computers, of course they also apply in particular to the solid state physics itself that underlies their operation, due to the nature of crystals. for the reasons just discussed in solid state physics, as a consequence of interlevel wave-particle duality, levels {l1,l4} in table 1 are inextricably intertwined levels. however the iil phenomenon is not confined to this case. the laser is another example ( [119] , §2) the laser involves a kind of 'circular' causality which occurs in the continuous interplay between macrolevel resonances in the cavity guiding, and being reinforced by, self-organization of the molecular behaviour. a quite different example is resonance energy transfer (ret) in the transport of electronic energy from one atom or molecule to another [74] . as described in that paper, the individual electrons do not migrate between molecules during the transfer process, since the molecular orbitals (the wavefunctions) do not overlap, but instead move between individual electronic states within the molecules. ... energy transfer, through dipole coupling between molecules, mostly depends on two important quantities: spectral overlap and intermolecular distance. this lead to a r −6 distance-dependence for the resonance energy transfer rate in the short-distance regime. the behaviour results from interwining between the electron level l1 and the molecular level l4. because of these interactions, second-order perturbation theory is the minimal needed to describe ret. while this paper refers to 'molecules', ret occurs in atoms, chromophores, particles and carbon nanotubes. its applications include nanosensors and photodynamic therapy. this raises the issue that whenever molecular physics [21] is concerned, there is inextricable intertwining between the molecular structure at level l4, bound by electrons, and the motions of the electrons at level l1, controlled by that structure. this is manifest in binding energy ( [21] , pp. 17-19, [90] , p. 569) and the existence of covalent bonds between atoms ( [21] , pp. [17] [18] [19] . molecular physics and quantum chemistry also exhibit iils between levels l1 and l4, which is why chemistry is a classic example of downward causation [86] . the group theory underlying this intertwining is discussed in [13] . it is believed by many that because the bottom-most physics level is causally complete, and only upward causation takes place, higher levels are purely derivative: they have no real causal validity. in this paper and its companion [41] , i argue against that position. it is invalid because it treats physics in a way that ignores context, whereas physics outcomes always depend on context. in fact downward effects imply the opposite: in real world contexts, the bottom-most physics level is not by itself causally complete. in this section, i look at the contextual nature of causal closure of physics (sect. 7.1), the way that unpredictability undermines causal closure of physics per se (sect. 7.2), and comment on ways people ignore the issues discussed in this paper (sect. 7.3). we can consider physics per se, or in relation to the natural world, or in relation to biology, or in relation to engineering. within physics, the issue of causal closure depends on what aspects we are considering: particle physics, nuclear physics, condensed matter physics, cosmology for example. firstly, we have no reliable tested toe at the very bottom level l0. we don't try to reduce to that most fundamental physical level (sect. 4.4). rather we reduce to a level that is convenient. that that can work is due to the existence of quantum protectorates, as explained in [84] . but then it is common to assume that level l1 (particle physics) is causally complete. is that indeed so? i have argued that this is not the case in the contexts of physics and biology (sect. 5.3); physics and engineering, as exemplified by digital computers (sect. 6.2); solid state physics (sect. 6.3); and physics and chemistry (sect. 6.4). in each case the real causal closure that takes place is an interlevel affair, as emphasized in particular in the case of biology by many perceptive writers (sect. 5.3). effective causal closure in real world contexts spans many levels, in the case of biology reaching down from the level of the organism to the underlying physics via time dependent constraints. this implies how it works in terms of physics in relation to society. the causal effects of the coronavirus pandemic at the social level reaches down to cause major changes at the physical levels l1-l3 through a complex interaction between social behaviours, virology, and microbiology that for example has temporarily destroyed international air travel and so the trajectories of the billions of particles that make up aircraft. causal closure only occurs when we take all these factors and levels into account. considering only disembodied physical laws seriously misleads about the nature of causation and causal closure in real world contexts. in summary, this is formalized by the concepts of effective causal closure (sects. 5.3, 6.2), and inextricably intertwined levels (sects. 5.4, 6.3). within solid state physics itself, the lower levels l1-l3 are not causally closed by themselves because of interlevel particle-wave duality between the particle level l1 where electrons and phonons live, and the crystal level l4 where lattice vibrations take place (sect. 6.3). properties of level l4 decouple from the lower physics levels. as stated by [84] , the crystalline state is the simplest known example of a quantum protectorate, a stable state of matter whose generic low-energy properties are determined by a higher organizing principle and nothing else. ignoring interlevel issues, if by causal closure one means that data specified as precisely as possible leads to unique outcomes, then unavoidable unpredictability undermines the possibility of physics per se (whether quantum or classical) being causally closed. quantum physics quantum effects doubly cause uncertainty in outcomes. firstly, the heisenberg uncertainty principle states that the standard deviations of position x and momentum p obeys so one cannot even in principle apply laplace's dream of setting initial data precisely at level l1. consequently, outcomes are also uncertain. secondly, collapse of the wave function introduces an irreducible uncertainty in classical outcomes at this level when interactions take place [53] . this can reach up to macro levels through various amplifiers such as photon multipliers and ccds. in the engineering case it causes predictability issues at macro scales in terms of digital computer reliability because cosmic rays cause errors in computer memories [56, 143] , and the emission of a cosmic ray by an excited atom is a quantum event that is (10) x p ≥ ℏ∕2 unpredictable even in principle. as regards biology, cosmic rays have had a significant effect on evolutionary history by causing genetic mutations [116] . the classical case uncertainty of outcomes occurs in this case too, because one can't set initial data to infinite precision [31] . this is an outcome of the fact that infinity never occurs in physical reality [46] . thus physics is not causally closed in the classical case at higher levels because of chaotic dynamics (the butterfly effect), together with the impossibility of specifying initial data to infinite accuracy. this occurs for instance at the level at which fluid motion is determined. reference [6] puts it this way: a fluid dynamicist when studying the chaotic outcome of convection in a benard cell knows to a gnat's eyelash the equations of motion of his fluid but also knows, through the operation of those equations of motion, that the details of the outcome are fundamentally unpredictable, although he hopes to get to understand the gross behaviour. this aspect is an example of a very general reality: the existence of universal law does not, in general, produce deterministic, cause-and-effect behaviour. this fundamentally undermines the concept of a causally closed physical levels in the case of classical physics. as was already known to poincare, this occurs even in the 3-body gravitational case. microbiology in the case of microbiology, interactions take place in the context of what hoffmann [65] has called "the molecular storm". molecular machines use ratchet-like mechanisms to harness energy from that storm, and organisms use it to provide an ensemble of options from which they can choose preferred lower level states and so attain biological objectives [106] (see the quote in sect. 2.3). one has the opposite of the calm relation between initial data and outcomes supposed by laplace. here are some ways that the nature of causal closure as discussed in this paper is avoided. partial reduction this is very common. francis crick in the astonishing hypothesis [28] states, you, your joys and your sorrows, your memories and your ambitions, your sense of personal identity and free will, are in fact no more than the behavior of a vast assembly of nerve cells and their associated molecules. in other words, he is reducing l7 to {l5-l4}. now my physics colleagues who believe that all that matters is the particle interactions at level l1 will just laugh and say, cells at level l4 and molecules at l5 are nothing but particles interacting with each other. thus crick believes in the reality and effectiveness of causality at levels l4 and l5 that for example [71, 58] , who believe that all causality resides at level l1, clearly must deny. so why did crick emphasize causality at those levels? the answer of course is that those were the levels at which he worked-and experienced the effectiveness of causality in terms of the interactions between entities (molecules, neurons) at those levels. from a strictly reductionist viewpoint, this is an illegitimate move. it is however fine if you accept noble's principle of biological relativity [105] , as extended in [41] and this paper: then causality is real at the levels {l4, l5} he studies. but that removes crick's justification for denying the reality of causation at level l7. ignoring context crucial contextual effects are simply ignored by some writers. for example [58, 71] . the view is "you are nothing but a bag of particles, it's just a matter of particles interacting via a known set of forces". context has nothing to do with it. the physicists holding this view all come from the particle physics/cosmology side, where this is to some extent true. physicists from the solid state physics side (the largest section of the physics community) do not hold this view, see e.g. [5, 127] . this leads to the large divide in the physics community between these two groups, as discussed by schweber [124] . denying top-down causation there is a frequent denial of the possibility of top-down causation, even though it occurs in physics and cosmology. in the latter case it occurs in the context of primordial nucleosynthesis in the early universe ( [117] , §4.3) and structure formation in the 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the ultimate laws of nature. penguin random house the architecture of biological networks effect of cosmic rays on computer memories that paper gives fascinating examples of downward causation from morphogenesis and regenerative medicine.downward causation is obvious in subjects other than particle physics and cosmology, and in particular in the functioning of the brain [39, 40, 77, 79] . for example, our minds are shaped by society, and shape society, including material outcomes in terms of architecture, engineering, art, and so on. society does not exist without mind, and mind does not exist without society [9, 10, 33] . that is the nature of interlevel causal closure. key: cord-337218-risqto89 authors: chu, ellen w.; karr, james r. title: environmental impact, concept and measurement of date: 2013-02-05 journal: encyclopedia of biodiversity doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-384719-5.00253-7 sha: doc_id: 337218 cord_uid: risqto89 environments on earth are always changing, and living systems evolve within them. for most of their history, human beings did the same. but in the last two centuries, humans have become the planet's dominant species, changing and impoverishing the environment for all life on earth and even decimating humans' own cultural diversity. contemporary cultural worldviews that have severed humans' ancient connections with the natural world, along with consumption and population growth, have deepened this impoverishment. understanding, measuring, and managing human environmental impacts – the most important of which is the impoverishment of living systems – is the 21st century's greatest challenge. all organisms change their environment as they live, grow, and reproduce. over millennia, organisms evolve to contend with changes in their environment. those that do not adapt go extinct. those that survive are molded by evolution and biogeography as the environment changes. even unusual or seemingly catastrophic events, like tidal waves from earthquakes, are an integral part of the ecological contexts to which organisms adapt over long time spans. some organisms, like beavers and elephants, change their surroundings so dramatically that they have been called ecosystem engineers. beaver dams alter the flow of rivers, increase dissolved oxygen in downstream waters, create wetlands, and modify streamside zones. african elephants convert wooded savanna to open grassland by toppling trees as they browse. change brought about by living things, including ecosystem engineers, has been slow and incremental in evolutionary terms. ecosystem engineers evolve along with other inhabitants of their environments, developing ways to coexist; like other environmental components, ecosystem engineers, and their effects are part of an evolving ecological context. in contrast, human effects since the industrial revolutionincluding many that may be invisible to a casual observeroutpace the capacity of living systems to respond. in evolutionary terms, these effects are recent and outside the experience of most organisms. over the past two centuriesbarely more than two human lifetimes -humans have profoundly altered living and nonliving systems everywhere. for the first time in the earth's history, the environmental impact of one species, homo sapiens, is the principal agent of global change. understanding the environmental impacts of human actions is one of modern science's greatest challenges. understanding the consequences of those impacts, and managing them to protect the well-being of human society and other life on earth, is humanity's greatest challenge. the human evolutionary line began in africa about 7 million years ago (ma). it took some 5 or 6 million years (my) for protohumans to spread from africa to asia and then to europe. these early humans, like other primates, made their living by seeking food and shelter from their environment, gathering plant foods, and hunting easy-to-kill prey. sometimes, they also experienced threats from their environment, including accidents, droughts, vector-borne diseases, and attacks from predators. at this stage, with relatively low population densities and limited technologies, humans were not ecosystem engineers. by some 50,000 years ago, however, humans had learned to use fire; developed complex tools, weapons, and language; and created art. on local scales, these modern humans were very much ecosystem engineers. sometimes their enhanced abilities to make a living outstripped their local environment's capacity to provide that living, and they caused local ecological disruptions. on several continents, for example, humans hunted large mammals to the point where many, such as the marsupial lion of australia, went extinct. as humans became more efficient at exploiting their local environments, they spread farther. by 13,000 years ago, modern humans had spread to all continents and many islands across the globe. then, about 10,000 years ago, people began to domesticate plants and animals. instead of searching for food, they began to produce food. food production changed the course of human and environmental history. domestication of plants and animals enabled people to adopt a sedentary lifestyle. as detailed by geographer and ecologist diamond (1997 diamond ( , 2002 , populations grew as agriculture developed, because larger sedentary populations both demanded and enabled more food production. local ecological disruptions became more numerous and widespread and more intense. with animal domestication, contagious diseases of pets and livestock adapted to new, human hosts. diseases spread more quickly in crowded conditions; inadequate sanitation compounded the effects. from agriculture, civilization followed and with it, cities, writing, advanced technology, and political empires. in just 10,000 years, these developments led to nearly 7 billion people on earth, industrial societies, and a global economy founded on complicated technologies and fossil fuels. humans have emerged as ecosystem engineers on a global scale. the ecological disruptions we cause are no longer just local or regional but global, and we have become the principal threat to the environment. yet despite today's advanced technologies, humans are as dependent on their environments as other organisms are. history, not just ecology, has been very clear on this point. from the old kingdom of egypt more than 4000 years ago to the culture that created the huge stone monoliths on easter island between 1000 and ad 1550 to the 1930s dust bowl of north america, civilizations or ways of life have prospered and failed by using and (mostly unwittingly) abusing natural resources. in old kingdom egypt, the resource was the valley of the nile, richly fertilized with sediment at each flooding of the river, laced with canals and side streams, blessed with a luxuriant delta. agriculture flourished and populations swelled, until unusually severe droughts brought on the civilization's collapse. on easter island, the resource was trees, which gave polynesians colonizing the island the means to build shelter, canoes for fishing the open waters around the island, and log rollers for moving the ceremonial stone monuments for which the island is famous. deforestation not only eliminated the humans' source of wood, but also further deprived the already poor soil of nutrients and made it impossible to sustain the agriculture that had sustained the island's civilization. on the dry great plains of north america, settlers were convinced that rain would follow the plow, and so they plowed homestead after homestead, only to watch their homesteads' soils literally blow away in the wind. in these cases and many others, human civilizations damaged their environments, and their actions also worsened the effects on their civilizations of climatic or other natural cycles. yet in each case, a human culture was operating precisely the way it had evolved to operate: the culture of old kingdom egypt enabled its people to prosper on the nile's natural bounty, but prolonged, unprecedented drought brought starvation and political disorder. easter islanders thrived and populated the island until its resources were exhausted. dust bowl farmers lived out their culture's view of dominating and exploiting the land for all it was worth. the inevitable outcome for all three cases was a catastrophe for the immediate environment and the people it supported -not only because the people were unprepared to cope with dramatic natural changes in their environments but because their own actions magnified the disastrous effects of those changes. quoting an apt bit of cynical graffiti, historical philosopher wright (2004, p. 107 ) sums up what he calls the hazards of human progress this way: ''each time history repeats itself, the price goes up.'' indeed, as the second decade of the 21st century begins, humans are ecosystem engineers on a planetary scale, and our global civilization threatens the life-sustaining capacity of all of earth's environmental ''spheres'': • geosphere (lithosphere): earth's crust and upper mantle, containing nonrenewable fossil fuels, minerals, and nutrients that plants require. the activities of plants, animals, and microorganisms weather mineral soils and rocks, create organic soils, and alter erosion and sedimentation rates. humans mine minerals, metals, and gems; extract fossil fuels including coal, oil, and natural gas; and increase erosion and sedimentation by removing or altering natural plant cover through agriculture, logging, and urbanization. • atmosphere: the thin envelope of gases encircling the planet. living systems modify the atmosphere, its temperature, and the amount of water it contains by continually generating oxygen and consuming carbon dioxide through photosynthesis and affecting the amount and forms of other gases. humans release toxic chemicals into the air and alter the climate by raising the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, through the burning of fossil fuels in motor vehicles, ships, airplanes, and power plants. • hydrosphere: earth's liquid surface and underground water; its polar ice caps, oceanic icebergs, and terrestrial permafrost; and its atmospheric water vapor. living systems alter the water cycle by modifying the earth's temperature and the amount of water plants send into the atmosphere through a process called evapotranspiration. humans build dams, irrigation canals, drinking-water delivery systems, and wastewater treatment plants. they use water to generate electricity; they mine groundwater from dwindling underground aquifers for farming as well as drinking; they alter the flows of surface waters for everything from transportation to the mining of gold; they drain wetlands to gain land area and abate waterborne diseases. modern human interference in global climate is likely to disrupt the entire planetary water cycle. • biosphere: the totality of earth's living systems, that part of the earth inhabited by living organisms. life on earth emerged 3.9 billion years ago and has sustained itself through changes in form, diversity, and detail since then. no planet yet discovered supports complex life as we know it on earth. as predators, humans have decimated or eliminated wild animal populations worldwide. as domesticators of animals and plants, humans have massively reshaped landscapes by cutting forests, burning and plowing grasslands, building cities, desertifying vast areas, and overharvesting fish and shellfish. human actions have precipitated a spasm of extinctions that today rivals five previous mass extinctions caused by astronomical or geological forces, each of which eliminated more than 70% of species then existing. humans themselves may be thought of as a sphere within the greater biosphere: the ethnosphere, or the sum total of all thoughts and intuitions, myths and beliefs, ideas and inspirations brought into being by the human imagination since the dawn of consciousness. in the words of anthropologist davis (2009, p. 2) , who coined and defined the term in 2002, ''the ethnosphere is humanity's greatest legacy. it is the product of our dreams, the embodiment of our hopes, the symbol of all we are and all that we, as a wildly inquisitive and astonishingly adaptive species, have created.'' but, davis notes, just as the biosphere is being severely eroded, so too is the ethnosphere, but at a much faster pace. today, the scientific consensus is that h. sapiens -a single species -rivals astronomical and geological forces in its impact on life on earth. the first step in dealing with the present impact of human activity is to correctly identify the nature of humanity's environmental impact, concept and measurement of relationship with the environment and how human actions affect that relationship. many people still see the environment as something people must overcome, or they regard environmental needs as something that ought to be balanced against human needs (for example, jobs vs. the environment). most people still regard the environment as a provider of commodities or a receptacle for waste. when asked to name humanity's primary environmental challenges, people typically think of running out of nonrenewable raw materials and energy or about water and air pollution. environmental research and development institutions focus on ways technology can help solve each problem, such as fuel cells to provide clean, potentially renewable energy or scrubbers to curb smokestack pollution. even when people worry about biodiversity loss, they are concerned primarily with stopping the extinction of species, rather than with understanding the underlying losses leading up to species extinctions or the broader biological crisis that extinctions signal. these perspectives miss a crucial point: the reason pollution, energy use, extinction, and dozens of other human impacts are important is their larger impact on the biosphere. ecosystems, particularly their living components, have always provided the capital to fuel human economies. when populations were small, humans making a living from nature's wealth caused no more disruption than other species. but with nearly 7 billion people occupying or using resources from every place on earth, humans are overwhelming the ability of other life-forms to make a living and depleting the planet's natural wealth. at this point in the planet's history, one species is compromising earth's ability to support the living systems that evolved here over millions of years. the systematic reduction in earth's capacity to support life -which woodwell (1990) termed 'biotic impoverishment' -is thus the most important human-caused environmental impact. at best, the ethics of this impact are questionable; at worst, it is jeopardizing our own survival. the connection between biotic impoverishment and extinction is intuitively obvious. by overharvesting fish, overcutting forests, overgrazing grasslands, or paving over land for cities, we are clearly killing other organisms outright or eliminating their habitats, thereby driving species to extinction and impoverishing the diversity of life. but biotic impoverishment takes many forms besides extinction. it encompasses three categories of human impacts on the biosphere: (1) indirect depletion of living systems through alterations in physical and chemical systems, (2) direct depletion of nonhuman life, and (3) direct degradation of human life (table 1) . identifying and understanding the biological significance of our actions -their effects on living systems, including our own social and economic systems -is the key to developing effective ways to manage our impacts. humans affect virtually all the physical and chemical systems life depends on: water, soils, air, and the biogeochemical cycles linking them. some human-driven physical and chemical changes have no repercussions on the biota; others do, becoming agents of biotic impoverishment. humans probably spend more energy, money, and time trying to control the movement and availability of water than to manage any other natural resource. in the process, we contaminate water, move water across and out of natural basins, deplete surface and groundwater; modify the timing and amount of flow in rivers, straighten or build dikes to constrain rivers, and alter natural flood patterns. we change the amount, timing, and chemistry of fresh water reaching coastal regions, and we dry up wetlands, lakes, and inland seas. our demands are outrunning supplies of this nonrenewable resource, and the scale of our transformations risks altering the planetary water cycle. physical alterations of the earth's waters, combined with massive industrial, agricultural, and residential pollution, have taken a heavy toll on nonhuman aquatic life. by 2005 as much as one-fifth of the world's coral reefs had been destroyed, and only 30% remained healthy. globally, the number of oceanic dead zones, where little or no dissolved oxygen exists, tripled during the last 30 years of the 20th century. the biota of freshwater systems has fared no better. a 4-year survey of the freshwater fishes inhabiting malaysian rivers in the late 1980s found only 46% of 266 known malaysian species. some 40% of north america's freshwater fishes are at risk of extinction; two-thirds of freshwater mussels and crayfishes and one-third of amphibians that depend on aquatic habitats in the united states are rare or imperiled. humans use at least 54% of the earth's accessible water runoff, a figure that is likely to grow to 70% by 2025. by then, more than a third of the world's population could suffer shortages of fresh water for drinking and irrigation. groundwater aquifers in many of the world's most important cropproducing regions are being drained faster than they can be replenished: a study published in 2010 found that the rate of groundwater depletion worldwide had more than doubled from 1960 to 2000. natural flood regimes, as in the nile river basin, no longer spread nutrient-rich silt across floodplains to nourish agriculture; indeed, the high dam at aswan traps so much silt behind it that the nile delta, essential to egypt's present-day economy, is slumping into the sea. whole inland seas, such as the aral sea in uzbekistan, are drying up because the streams feeding them contain so little water. in addition to eliminating habitat for resident organisms, the sea's drying is bringing diseases to surrounding human populations. indeed, diseases caused by waterborne pathogens are making a comeback even in industrialized nations. in the past five or six decades, the number of large dams on the world's rivers grew more than seven times, to more than 40,000 today. the mammoth three gorges dam across china's yangtze river, completed in 2006, created a 660-km-long serpentine lake behind it. the dam displaced more than 1 million people and may force the relocation of another 4 million from the reservoir region, which, at 58,000 km 2 , is larger than switzerland. the dam has greatly altered ecosystems on the yangtze's middle reaches, compounding perils already faced by prized and endemic fish and aquatic mammals. the sheer weight of the water and silt behind the concrete dam raises the risk of landslides and strains the region's geological structure, while water released from the dam eats away at downstream banks and scours the bottom. and by slowing the flow of the yangtze and nearby tributaries, the dam drains the river's ability to flush out and detoxify pollutants from upstream industries. not just dirt, soil is a living system that makes it possible for raw elements from air, water, and bedrock to be physically and chemically assembled, disassembled, and reassembled with the aid of living macro-and microorganisms into the green cloak of life above ground. accumulated over thousands of years, soil cannot be renewed in any time frame useful to humans alive today, or even to their great-grandchildren. humans degrade soils when they compact it, erode it, disrupt its organic and inorganic structure, turn it too salty for life, and cause desertification. urbanization, logging, mining, overgrazing, alterations in soil moisture, air pollution, fires, chemical pollution, and leaching out of minerals all damage or destroy soils. thanks to removal of vegetative cover, mining, agriculture, and other activities, the world's topsoils are eroded by wind and water ten to hundreds of times faster than they are renewed (at roughly 10 tons ha à1 year à1 ). soils constitute the foundation of human agriculture, yet agriculture, including livestock raising, is the worst culprit in degrading soils. agricultural practices have eroded or degraded more than 40% of present cropland. over the last half century, some 24,000 villages in northern and western china have been overrun by the drifting sands of desertification. besides topsoil erosion, the damage includes salting and saturation of poorly managed irrigated lands; compaction by heavy machinery and the hooves of livestock; and pollution from excessive fertilizers, animal wastes, and pesticides. living, dead, and decomposing organic matter is the key to soil structure and fertility. soil depleted of organic matter is less permeable to water and air and thus less able to support either aboveground plants or soil organisms. the linkages between soil's inorganic components and the soil biotanaturalist wilson's (1987) ''little things that run the world''are what give soil its life-sustaining capacity. a clear-cut forest patch whose soil biota has been damaged beyond recovery can no longer sustain trees, no matter how many are planted; another clear-cut patch whose soil community is intact -especially the close associations among fungi and tree rootswill support new tree growth. destroying soil biota unleashes a whole series of impoverishing biotic effects both below and above ground. in 1962, rachel carson's landmark book, silent spring, alerted the world to the pervasiveness of synthetic chemicals produced since world war ii. as many as 100,000 synthetic chemicals are in use today. true to one company's slogan, many of these have brought ''better living through chemistry,'' providing new fabrics and lighter manufacturing materials, antibiotics, and life-saving drugs. but industrial nations have carelessly pumped chemicals into every medium. chemicals -as varied as prescription drugs flowing out of sewage plants, pesticides, heavy metals, and cancer-causing by-products of countless manufacturing processes -now lace the world's water, soil, and air and the bodies of all living things, including humans. chemicals directly poison organisms; they accumulate in physical surroundings and are passed through and, in many cases, concentrated within portions of the food web. chemicals cause cancer, interfere with hormonal systems, provoke asthma, and impair the functioning of immune systems. they have intergenerational effects, such as intellectual impairment in children whose mothers have eaten contaminated fish. what's more, over half a century of pesticide and antibiotic overuse has bred resistance to these chemicals among insects, plants, and microbes, giving rise to new and reemerging scourges. many chemicals travel oceanic and atmospheric currents to sites far from their source. sulfur emissions from the us midwest, for example, fall to earth again as acid rain in europe, killing forests and so acidifying streams and lakes that they, too, effectively die. china's burning of soft coal sends air pollution all the way to northwestern north america; the heavy haze hanging over china's chief farming regions may be cutting agricultural production by a third. chlorofluorocarbons (cfcs), once widely used as refrigerants, have damaged the atmospheric ozone layer, which moderates how much ultraviolet radiation reaches the earth, and opened ozone holes over the arctic and antarctic. but even more alarming is an unprecedented acidification of the oceans that has only recently attracted the attention of major scientific research consortiums. acid added to the world ocean by human activity has lowered the ocean's ph; it is lower now than it has been in 20 my, which translates into a 30% increase in sea-surface acidity since industrialization began. the future of marine life in an ocean acidifying at this speed and intensity looks bleak. as the concentration of hydrogen ions rises, the calcium carbonate in the shells or skeletons of organisms such as tropical corals, microscopic foraminifera, and mollusks begins to dissolve; further, more hydrogen ions combine with the calcium carbonate building blocks the organisms need, making it harder for them to extract this compound from the water and build their shells in the first place. although many of the most obviously deadly chemicals were banned in the 1970s, they continue to impoverish the biosphere. polychlorinated biphenyls -stable, nonflammable compounds once used in electrical transformers and many other industrial and household applications -remain in the environment for long periods, cycling among air, water, and soils and persisting in the food web. they are found in polar bears and arctic villagers; they are implicated in reproductive disorders, particularly in such animals as marine mammals, whose long lives, thick fat layers where chemicals concentrate, and position as top predators make them especially vulnerable. the agricultural pesticide ddt, sprayed with abandon in the 1940s and 1950s, even directly on children, had severely thinned wild birds' eggshells by the time it was banned in the united states. populations of birds such as the brown pelican and bald eagle had dropped precipitously by the 1970s, although they have recovered enough for the species to be taken off the us endangered species list, the bald eagle in 2007 and the brown pelican in 2009. reproduction of central california populations of the california condor, in contrast, continues to be threatened by ddt breakdown products, which, 40 years after the pesticide was banned, are still found in the sea lion carcasses the birds sometimes feed on. carson's book revealed the real danger of chemical pollutants: they have not simply perturbed the chemistry of water, soil, and air but harmed the biosphere as well. the list of chemicals' effects on living things is so long that chemical pollution equals humans' environmental impact in most people's minds, yet it is just one form of biotic impoverishment. all the substances found in living things -such as water, carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur -cycle through ecosystems in biogeochemical cycles. human activities modify or have the potential to modify all these cycles. sometimes the results stem from changing the amount or the precise chemistry of the cycled substance; in other cases, humans change biogeochemical cycles by changing the biota itself. freshwater use, dams, and other engineering ventures affect the amount and rate of river flow to the oceans and increase evaporation rates, directly affecting the water cycle and indirectly impoverishing aquatic life. direct human modifications of living systems also alter the water cycle. in south africa, european settlers supplemented the treeless native scrub, or fynbos, with such trees as pines and australian acacias from similar mediterranean climates. but because these trees are larger and thirstier than the native scrub, regional water tables have fallen sharply. human activity has disrupted the global nitrogen cycle by greatly increasing the amount of nitrogen fixed from the atmosphere (combined into compounds usable by living things). the increase comes mostly from deliberate addition of nitrogen to soils as fertilizer but also as a by-product of the burning of fossil fuels. agriculture, livestock raising, and residential yard maintenance chronically add tons of excess nutrients, including nitrogen and phosphorus, to soils and water. the additions are often invisible; their biological impacts are often dramatic. increased nutrients in coastal waters, for example, trigger blooms of toxic dinoflagellates -the algae that cause red tides, fish kills, and tumors and other diseases in varied sea creatures. when huge blooms of algae die, they fall to the seafloor, where their decomposition so robs the water of oxygen that fish and other marine organisms can no longer live there. with nitrogen concentrations in the mississippi river two to three times as high as they were 50 years ago, a gigantic dead zone forms in the gulf of mexico every summer; in summer 2010 this dead zone covered 20,000 km 2 . the burning of fossil fuels is transforming the carbon cycle, primarily by raising the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. with other greenhouse gases, such as methane and oxides of nitrogen, carbon dioxide helps keep earth's surface at a livable temperature and drives plant photosynthesis, but since the industrial revolution, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have risen nearly 40% and are now widely thought to be disrupting the planet's climate. in addition, the effects of catastrophic oil spills like the one that followed the april 2010 explosion of the deepwater horizon drilling rig in the gulf of mexico -and the effects of the chemicals used to disperse the resulting plumes of oil -may reverberate for decades. in its 2007 report, written and reviewed by more than 3500 scientists, the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) concluded that climate warming was ''unequivocal'' (p. 2), that most of the average global warming over the previous 50 years was ''very likely due to anthropogenic ghg [greenhouse gas] increases'' (p. 5), and that this warming has likely had ''a discernible influence at the global scale on observed changes in many physical and biological systems'' (p. 6). the concentrations of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere are at their highest level in more than 200,000 years. the 20th century in the northern hemisphere was the warmest of the past millennium; the first decade of the 21st first century, and the first 7 months of 2010, were the warmest on record. higher global temperatures set in motion a whole series of effects, making the study of climate change, and of humans' role in it, complex and controversial. spring arrives at least 1 week earlier in the northern hemisphere. polar glaciers and ice sheets are receding. the arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, and arctic sea ice melted at a near-record pace in 2010. with the sun heating the newly open water, winter refreezing will take longer, and the resulting thinner ice will melt more easily the following summer. the large-scale circulation of global air masses is changing and, with them, the large-scale cycles in ocean currents, including the periodic warming and cooling in the tropical pacific ocean known as el niñ o and la niñ a. as a result, the distribution, timing, and amount of rain and snow are also changing, making the weather seem more unpredictable than ever. unusually warm or cold winters, massive hurricanes like those that devastated the us gulf coast in 2005, and weatherrelated damage to human life and property are all predicted to increase with global warming. in the united states in 2005, weather-related damage totaled nearly $97 billion. where other nutrients are not limiting, rising carbon dioxide concentrations may enhance plant photosynthesis and growth. rising temperatures may shift the ranges of many plants and animals -both wild and domestic -rearranging the composition and distribution of the world's biomes, as well as those of agricultural systems. the resulting displacements will have far-reaching implications not only for the displaced plants and animals but also for the goods and services humans depend on from these living systems. from their beginnings as hunter-gatherers, humans have become highly efficient, machine-aided ecosystem engineers and predators. we transform the land so it produces what we need or want; we harvest the oceans in addition to reaping our own fields; we cover the land, even agricultural land, with sprawling cities. all these activities directly affect the ability of other life-forms to survive and reproduce. we deplete nonhuman life by eliminating some forms and favoring others; the result is a loss of genetic, population, and species diversity. we are irreversibly homogenizing life on earth, in effect exercising an unnatural selection that is erasing the diversity generated by millions of years of evolution by natural selection. one species is now determining which other species will survive, reproduce, and thereby contribute the raw material for future evolution. in the 1930s, so many sardines were scooped from the waters off monterey's cannery row in california that the population collapsed, taking other sea creatures and human livelihoods with it; after rebounding somewhat in the first decade of the 2000s, the species has still not recovered fully. according to the us national marine fisheries service, nearly 80% of commercially valuable fish of known status were overfished or fished to their full potential by 1993. atlantic commercial fish species at their lowest levels in history include tuna, marlin, cod, and swordfish. overfishing not only depletes target species but restructures entire marine food webs. marine mammals, including whales, seals, sea lions, manatees, and sea otters, were so badly depleted by human hunters that one species, steller's sea cow (hydrodamalis gigas), went extinct; many other species almost disappeared. in the 19th century, russian fur traders wiped out sea otters (enhydra lutris) along the central california coast. with the otters gone, their principal prey, purple sea urchins (stronglyocentrotus purpuratus), overran the offshore forests of giant kelp (macrocystis pyrifera), decimating the kelp fronds and the habitat they provided for countless other marine creatures, including commercially harvested fishes. thanks to five decades of protection, marine mammal populations began slowly recovering -only to face food shortages as regional marine food webs continue to unravel because of fishing, changing oceanic conditions, and contamination. timber harvest has stripped vegetation from the amazonian rainforest to mountainsides on all continents, diminishing and fragmenting habitat for innumerable forest and stream organisms, eroding soils, worsening floods, and contributing significantly to global carbon dioxide emissions. in the northern hemisphere, 10% or less remains of old-growth temperate rainforests. the uniform stands of trees usually replanted after logging do not replace the diversity lost with the native forest, any more than monocultures of corn replace the diversity within native tallgrass prairies. a great deal of human ecosystem engineering not only alters or damages the habitats of other living things but often destroys those habitats. satellite-mounted remote-sensing instruments have revealed transformations of terrestrial landscapes on a scale unimaginable in centuries past. together, cropland and pastures occupy 40% of earth's land surface. estimates of the share of land wholly transformed or degraded by humans hover around 50%. our roads, farms, cities, feedlots, and ranches either fragment or destroy the habitats of most large carnivorous mammals. mining and oil drilling damage the soil, remove vegetation, and pollute marine areas. grazing compacts soil and sends silt and manure into streams, where they harm stream life. landscapes that have not been entirely converted to human use have been cut into fragments. in song of the dodo, writer quammen (1996) likens our actions to starting with a fine persian carpet and then slicing it neatly into 36 equal pieces; even if we had the same square footage, we would not have 36 nice persian rugs -only ragged, nonfunctional fragments. and in fact, we do not even have the original square footage because we have destroyed an enormous fraction of it. such habitat destruction is not limited to terrestrial environments. human channelization of rivers may remove whole segments of riverbed. in the kissimmee river of the us state of florida, for example, channelization in the 1960s transformed 165 km of free-flowing river into 90 km of canal, effectively removing 35 km of river channel and drastically altering the orphaned river meanders left behind. wetlands worldwide continue to disappear, drained to create shoreline communities for people and filled to increase cropland. the lower 48 united states lost 53% of their wetlands between the 1700s and mid-1980s. such losses destroy major fish and shellfish nurseries, natural flood and pollution control, and habitat for countless plants and animals. the mosaic of habitats in, on, or near the seafloor -home to 98% of all marine species -is also being decimated. like clear-cutting of an old-growth forest, the use of large, heavy trawls dragged along the sea bottom to catch groundfish and other species flattens and simplifies complex, structured habitats such as gravels, coral reefs, crevices, and boulders and drastically reduces biodiversity. studies reported on by the national research council of the us national academy of sciences have shown that a single tow can injure or destroy upward of two-thirds of certain bottom-dwelling species, which may still not have recovered after a year or more of no trawling. habitat fragmentation and destruction, whether on land or in freshwater and marine environments, may lead directly to extinction or isolate organisms in ways that make them extremely vulnerable to natural disturbances, climate change, or further human disturbance. ''the one process ongoing y that will take millions of years to correct,' ' wilson (1994, p. 355) admonishes us, ''is the loss of genetic and species diversity by the destruction of natural habitats. this is the folly our descendants are least likely to forgive us.'' both deliberately and unwittingly, humans are rearranging earth's living components, reducing diversity and homogenizing biotas around the world. the present, continuing loss of genetic diversity, of populations, and of species vastly exceeds background rates. at the same time, our global economy is transporting species worldwide at unprecedented scales. the globe is now experiencing its sixth mass extinction, the largest since the dinosaurs vanished 65 ma; present extinction rates are thought to be on the order of 100-1000 times those before people dominated earth. according to the millennium ecosystem assessment, a 5-year project begun in 2001 to assess the world's ecosystems, an estimated 10-15% of the world's species will be committed to extinction over the next 30 years. approximately 20% of all vertebrates, including 33% of sharks and rays, are at risk of extinction. at least one of every eight plant species is also threatened with extinction. although mammals and birds typically receive the most attention, massive extinctions of plants, which form the basis of the biosphere's food webs, undermine lifesupport foundations. the mutualistic relationships between animals and plants, particularly evident in tropical forests, mean that extinctions in one group have cascading effects in other groups. plants reliant on animals for pollination or seed dispersal, for example, are themselves threatened by the extinction of the animal species they depend on. not surprisingly, some scientists view extinction as the worst biological tragedy, but extinction is just another symptom of global biotic impoverishment. ever since they began to spread over the globe, people have transported other organisms with them, sometimes for food, sometimes for aesthetic reasons, and most often inadvertently. with the mobility of modern societies and today's especially speedy globalization of trade, the introduction of alien species has reached epidemic proportions, causing some scientists to label it biological pollution. aliens -zebra mussels (dreissena polymorpha) and tamarisks, or saltcedar (tamarix spp.), in north america; the red sea sea jelly rhopilema nomadica and the common aquarium alga caulerpa taxifolia now choking the mediterranean sea; and leidy's comb jelly (mnemiopsis leidyi) of northeastern america in the black sea, to name just a few -are present everywhere, and they usually thrive and spread at the expense of native species. on many islands, for example, more than half the plant species are not native, and in many continental areas the figure reaches 20% or more. the costs of such invasions, in both economic and ecological terms, are high. in the united states, for example, annual economic losses due to damage by invasive species or the costs of controlling them exceed $137 billion per year -$40 billion more than the nation's losses from weather-related damage in 2005. furthermore, alien invasions cause extinctions and, when added to other extinctions and the deliberate monocultures of agricultural crops, homogenize biotas still more. introduced species are fast catching up with habitat fragmentation and destruction as the major engines of ecological deterioration. humans have been manipulating their crop plants and domesticated animals for 10,000 years or so -selecting seeds or individuals and breeding and cross-breeding them. the goal was something better, bigger, tastier, hardier, or all of the above; success was sometimes elusive, but the result was crop homogenization. of the myriad strains of potatoes domesticated by south american cultures, for example, only one was accepted and cultivated when potatoes first made it to europe. the new crop made it possible to feed more people from an equivalent area of land and initially staved off malnutrition. but the strain succumbed to a fungal potato blight in the 1800s. had more than one strain been cultivated, the tragic irish potato famines might have been averted. in the last few decades of the 20th century, people began to manipulate genes directly using the tools of molecular biotechnology, even cloning sheep and cows from adult body cells. us farmers routinely plant their fields with corn whose genetic material incorporates a bacterial gene resistant to certain pathogens. more than 40 genetically altered crops have been approved for sale to us farmers since 1992, with genes borrowed from bacteria, viruses, and insects. the united states accounts for nearly two-thirds of biotechnology crops planted globally. worldwide in 2003, 67.6 million hectares in 18 countries on six continents were planted with genetically modified crops, as compared with 1.7 million hectares in six countries in 1996 -a 40-fold expansion in 8 years. biotechnologists focus on the potential of this newmillennium green revolution to feed the growing world population, which has added almost 1 billion people in the past decade alone. but other scientists worry about unknown human and ecological health risks; these concerns have stirred deep scientific and public debate, especially in europe, akin to the debate over pesticides in rachel carson's time. one worrisome practice is plant genetic engineers' technique of attaching the genes they want to introduce into plants to an antibiotic-resistant gene. they can then easily select plants that have acquired the desired genes by treating them with the antibiotic, which kills any nonresistant plants. critics worry that the antibiotic-resistant genes could spread to human pathogens and worsen an already growing antibioticresistance problem. another concern arises from allergies humans might have or develop in response to genetically modified foods. although supporters of genetic engineering believe that genetically altered crops pose few ecological risks, ecologists have raised a variety of concerns. studies in the late 1990s indicated that pollen from genetically engineered bt corn can kill monarch butterfly caterpillars. bt is a strain of bacterium that has been used since the 1980s as a pesticidal spray; its genes have also been inserted directly into corn and other crops. ecologists have long worried that genetically engineered plants could escape from fields and cross-breed with wild relatives. studies in radishes, sorghum, canola, and sunflowers found that genes from an engineered plant could jump to wild relatives through interbreeding. the fear is that a gene conferring insect or herbicide resistance might spread through wild plants, creating invasive superweeds that could potentially lower crop yields and further disturb natural ecosystems. in fact, herbicide-resistant turf grass tested in oregon in 2006 did escape and spread, and transgenic canola has been appearing throughout the us state of north dakota, which has tens of thousands of hectares in conventional and genetically modified canola. according to the scientists who discovered the transgenic escapees growing in north dakota -far from any canola field -the plants are likely to be cross-pollinating in the wild and swapping introduced genes; the plants' novel gene combinations indicate that the transgenic traits are stable and evolving outside of cultivation. genetically engineered crops do confer some economic and environmental benefits: for farmers, higher yields, lower costs, savings in management time and gains in flexibility; for the environment, indirect benefits from using fewer pesticides and herbicides. but it is still an open question whether such benefits outweigh the potential ecological risks or whether the public will embrace having genetically modified foods as staples in their diet. human biotic impacts are not confined to other species; human cultures themselves have suffered from the widening circles of indirect and direct effects humans have imposed on the rest of nature. over the past hundred years, human technology has cut both ways with regard to public health. wonder drugs controlled common pathogens at the same time that natural selection strengthened those pathogens' ability to resist the drugs. reservoirs in the tropics made water supplies more reliable for humans but also created ideal environments for human parasites. industrialization exposed human society to a remarkable array of toxic substances. although man's inhumanity to man has been both fact and the subject of discourse for thousands of years, the discussions have mostly been removed from any environmental context. few people today regard social ills as environmental impacts or humans as part of a biota. but diminished societal well-being -whether manifest in high death rates or poor quality of life -shares many of its roots with diminished nonhuman life as a form of biotic impoverishment. the intersection of the environment and human health is the core of the discipline known as environmental health. among the environmental challenges to public health are the direct effects of toxic chemicals; occupational health threats, including exposures to hazardous materials on the job; and sanitation and disposal of hazardous wastes. exploitation of nonrenewable natural resources -including coal mining, rock quarrying or other mining operations, and petroleum extraction and refining -often chronically impairs workers' health and shortens their lives. farmworkers around the world suffer long-term ills from high exposures to pesticides and herbicides. partly because of increased air pollution, asthma rates are rising, particularly in big cities. synthetic volatile solvents are used in products from shoes to semiconductors, producing lung diseases and toxic wastes. nuclear weapons production starting in world war ii, and associated contamination, have been linked to a variety of illnesses, including syndromes neither recognized nor understood at the time and whose causes were not diagnosed until decades afterward. the grayish metal beryllium, for example, was used in weapons production and was found decades later to scar the lungs of workers and people living near toxic waste sites. infectious diseases have challenged human populations throughout history, playing a significant role in their evolution and cultural development over the past 10,000 years, with 75% of human diseases linked to wildlife or domestic animals. the 20th century brought major successes in eradicating such infectious diseases as smallpox, polio, and many waterborne illnesses. but toward the century's end, emerging and reemerging diseases were again reaching pandemic proportions. infectious diseases thought to be on the wane -including tuberculosis, malaria, cholera, diptheria, leptospirosis, encephalitis, and dengue fever -have begun a resurgence. in addition, seemingly new scourges -ebola virus, hantavirus, hiv/aids, lyme disease, and west nile fever -are also spreading, often, it appears, from wild animal hosts to humans as people encroach further upon previously undisturbed regions. a number of studies over the decade before 2010 show complex connections between biodiversity and disease: biodiversity loss often increases disease transmission, as in lyme disease and west nile fever, but diverse ecosystems also serve as sources of pathogens. overall, however, the studies indicate that preserving intact ecosystems and their endemic biodiversity often reduces the prevalence of infectious diseases. human migrations -including their modern incarnation through air travel -also accelerate pathogen traffic and launch global pandemics, such as the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome and the 2009 swine flu outbreak caused by the h1n1 virus. even something as simple and apparently benign as lighting can become an indirect agent of disease. artificial lighting, especially in the tropics, for example, can alter human and insect behavior in ways that speed transmission of insect-borne diseases, such as chagas's disease, malaria, and leishmaniasis. in addition, especially in highly developed countries such as the united states, diseases of affluence and overconsumption are taking a toll. heart disease is the number one cause of death in the united states; overnutrition, obesity, and diabetes due to sedentary, technology-driven lifestyles, particularly among children, are chronic and rising. one estimate put the share of us children considered overweight or obese at one in three. this rise in obesity rates has been stunningly rapid. as recently as 1980, just 15% of adults were obese; by 2008 the rate had hit 34%, and two-thirds of americans are now considered either overweight or obese. although not conventionally regarded as elements of biodiversity, human languages, customs, agricultural systems, technologies, and political systems have evolved out of specific regional environments. like other organisms' adaptive traits and behaviors, these elements of human culture constitute unique natural histories adapted, like any natural history, to the biogeographical context in which they arose. yet modern technology, transportation, and trade have pushed the world into a globalized culture, thereby reducing human biological and cultural diversity. linguists, for example, are predicting that at least half of the 7000 languages spoken today will become extinct in the 21st century. with the spread of euro-american culture, unique indigenous human cultures, with their knowledge of local medicines and geographically specialized economies, are disappearing even more rapidly than the natural systems that nurtured them. this loss of human biodiversity is in every way as troubling as the loss of nonhuman biodiversity. the effects of environmental degradation on human quality of life are another symptom of biotic impoverishment. food availability, which depends on environmental conditions, is a basic determinant of quality of life. yet according to the world health organization, nearly half the world's population suffers from one of two forms of poor nutrition: undernutrition or overnutrition. a big belly is now a symptom shared by malnourished children, who lack calories and protein, and overweight residents of the developed world, who suffer clogged arteries and heart disease from eating too much. independent of race or economic class, declining quality of life in today's world is manifest in symptoms such as increased asthma in the united states caused by environmental contaminants and the high disease rates in the former soviet bloc after decades of unregulated pollution. even with explicit legal requirements that industries release information on their toxic emissions, many people throughout the world still lack both information and the decision-making power that would give them any control over the quality of their lives. aggrieved about the degraded environment and resulting quality of life in his homeland, ogoni activist ken saro-wiwa issued a statement shortly before he was executed by the nigerian government in 1995 saying, ''the environment is man's first right. without a safe environment, man cannot exist to claim other rights, be they political, social, or economic.'' kenyan maathai (2009, p. 249) , 2004 winner of the nobel peace prize, has also written, ''[i]f we destroy it, we will undermine our own ways of life and ultimately kill ourselves. this is why the environment needs to be at the center of domestic and international policy and practice. if it is not, we don't stand a chance of alleviating poverty in any significant way.'' having ignored this kind of advice for decades, nations are seeing a new kind of refugee attempting to escape environmental degradation and desperate living conditions; the number of international environmental refugees exceeded the number of political refugees around the world for the first time in 1999. environmental refugees flee homelands devastated by flooding from dam building, extraction of mineral resources, desertification, and unjust policies of national and international institutions. such degradation preempts many fundamental human rights, including the rights to health, livelihood, culture, privacy, and property. people have long recognized that human activities that degrade environmental conditions threaten not only the biosphere but also humans' own quality of life. as early as 4500 years ago in mesopotamia and south asia, writings revealed an awareness of biodiversity, of natural order among living things, and of consequences of disrupting the biosphere. throughout history, even as civilization grew increasingly divorced from its natural underpinnings, writers, thinkers, activists, and people from all walks of life have continued to see and extol the benefits of nature to humans' quality of life. contemporary society still has the chance to relearn how important the environment is to quality of life. it is encouraging that the united steelworkers of america in 1990 released a report recognizing that protecting steelworker jobs could not be done by ignoring environmental problems and that the destruction of the environment may pose the greatest threat to their children's future. it is also encouraging that the 2007 nobel peace prize was awarded to a political figure and a group of scientists for their work on climate change. making a living from nature's wealth has consistently opened gaps between haves and have-nots, between those who bear the brunt of environmental damage to their home places and those who do not, and between the rights of people alive now and those of future generations; these disparities too are part of biotic impoverishment. inequitable access to ''man's first right'' -a healthy local environment -has come to be known as environmental injustice. environmental injustices, such as institutional racism, occur in industrial and nonindustrial nations. injustice can be overt, as when land-use planning sites landfills, incinerators, and hazardous waste facilities in minority communities, or when environmental agencies levy fines for hazardous waste violations that are lower in minority communities than in white communities. less overt, but no less unjust, is the harm done to one community when unsound environmental practices benefit another, as when clear-cut logging in the highlands of northwestern north america benefits logging communities while damaging the livelihoods of lowland fishing communities subjected to debris flows, sedimentation, and downstream flooding. the plight of the working poor and the disparities between rich and poor are also examples of biotic impoverishment within the human community. according to the united nations research institute for social development, the collective wealth of the world's 358 billionaires equaled the combined income of the poorest 2.4 billion people in 1994. forbes magazine put the number of billionaires in early 2010 at 1011, with a total worth of $3.6 trillion. in the united states during the last decade of the 20th century, the incomes of poor and middle-class families stagnated or fell, despite a booming stock market. the center on budget and policy priorities and the economic policy institute reported that between 1988 and 1998, earnings of the poorest fifth of american families rose less than 1%, while earnings of the richest fifth jumped 15%. by the middle of the first decade of the 21st century, americans' income inequality had become the widest among industrialized nations, with the wealthiest 20% of the population holding 85% of the wealth. the wealthiest americans continued to prosper even during the global recession late in that decade, while the less well-off kept losing ground. but perhaps the grossest example of human and environmental domination leading to continued injustice is the creation of a so-called third world to supply raw materials and labor to the dominant european civilization after 1500 and the resulting schism between today's developed and developing nations. developing regions throughout the world held tremendous stores of natural wealth, some of it -like petroleum -having obvious monetary value in the dominant economies and some having a value invisible to those economies -like vast intact ecosystems. a 2010 united nations study (teeb) estimated that even today, earth's ecosystems account for roughly half to 90% of the source of livelihoods for rural and forest-dwelling peoples; the study calls this value the gross domestic product (gdp) of the poor. dominant european civilizations unabashedly exploited this natural wealth and colonized or enslaved the people in whose homelands the wealth was found. but the dominant civilizations also exported their ways of thinking and their economic models to the developing world, not only colonizing places but also effecting what wangari maathai has called a colonization of the mind. although dominant 21st century society tends to dismiss ancient wisdom as irrelevant in the modern world, perhaps the cruelest impoverishment of all is the cultural and spiritual deracination experienced by exploited peoples worldwide. exploitation of poor nations and their citizens by richer, consumer countries -and in many cases by the same governments that fought for independence from the colonists while adopting the colonists' attitudes and economic models -persists today in agriculture, wild materials harvesting, and textile and other manufacturing sweatshops. in the mid-1990s, industrial countries consumed 86% of the globe's aluminum, 81% of its paper, 80% of its iron and steel, 75% of its energy, and 61% of its meat; they are thus responsible for most of the environmental degradation associated with producing these goods. most of the actual degradation, however, still takes place in developing nations. as a result, continuing environmental and social injusticeenvironmental and social impoverishment perpetrated by outsiders and insiders alike -pervades developing nations. such impoverishment can take the form of wrenching physical dislocation like the massive displacements enforced by china's three gorges dam. it can appear as environmental devastation of homelands and murder of the people who fought to keep their lands, as in the nigerian government-backed exploitation of ogoniland's oil reserves by the shell petroleum development corporation. after saro-wiwa's execution, the ogoni were left, without a voice, to deal with a scarred and oilpolluted landscape. despite great advances in the welfare of women and children over the past century, poverty still plagues both groups. children from impoverished communities, even in affluent nations, suffer from the lethargy and impaired physical and intellectual development known as failure to thrive. poverty forces many children to work the land or in industrial sweatshops; lack of education prevents them from attaining their intellectual potential. this impoverishment in the lives of women and children is as much a symptom of biotic impoverishment as are deforestation, invasive alien organisms, or species extinctions. little by little, community-based conservation and development initiatives are being mounted by local citizens to combat this impoverishment: witness maathai's green belt movement, which began with tree planting to restore community landscapes and provide livelihoods for residents, and the rise of ecotourism and microlending (small loans made to individuals, especially women, to start independent businesses) as ways to bring monetary benefits directly to local people without further damaging their environments. ultimately, one could see all efforts to protect the ethnosphere and the biosphere as a fight for the rights of future generations to an environment that can support them. only during the last two decades of the 20th century did environmental issues find a place on international diplomatic agendas, as scholars began calling attention to -and governments began to see -irreversible connections between environmental degradation and national security. british scholar myers (1993) , noting that environmental problems were likely to become predominant causes of conflict in the decades ahead, was one of the first to define a new concept of environmental security. national security threatened by unprecedented environmental changes irrespective of political boundaries will require unprecedented responses altogether different from military actions, he warned. nations cannot deploy their armies to hold back advancing deserts, rising seas, or the greenhouse effect. canadian scholar homer-dixon (1999) showed that environmental scarcities -whether created by ecological constraints or sociopolitical factors including growing populations, depletion of renewable resources such as fish or timber, and environmental injustice perpetrated by one segment of a population on another -were fast becoming a permanent, independent cause of civil strife and ethnic violence. he found that such scarcity was helping to drive societies into a self-reinforcing spiral of dysfunction and violence, including terrorism. environmental and economic injustices worldwide leave no country immune to this type of threat. typically, diplomacy has stalled in conflicts over natural resources: arguments over water rights have more than once held up israeli-palestinian peace agreements; fights over fish erupted between canada and the united states, spain, and portugal. in contrast, in adopting the montreal protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer in 1987, governments, nongovernmental organizations, and industry successfully worked together to safeguard part of the environmental commons. the treaty requires signatory nations to curb their use of cfcs and other ozone-destroying chemicals and has been, according to former united nations secretary general kofi annan, perhaps the most successful international agreement to date. if scientists have learned anything about the factors leading to biotic impoverishment, they have learned that the factors' cumulative effects can take on surprising dimensions. as scholars like fagan (1999) and diamond (2005) have chronicled, the multiple stresses of global climatic cycles such as el niñ o, natural events like droughts or floods, resource depletion, and social upheaval have shaped the fates of civilizations. societies as far-flung as ancient egypt, peru, the american southwest, and easter island prospered and collapsed because of unwise management of their environments. the city of ubar, built on desert sands in what is now southern oman, literally disappeared into the sinkhole created by drawing too much water out of its great well. in modern sahelian africa, a combination of well digging and improved medical care and sanitation led to a threefold population increase; sedentary ways, heavy taxes imposed by a colonial government, and an impoverished people took the place of a nomadic culture evolved within the desert's realities. during the first decade of the 21st century, numerous natural disasters befell nations around the world: wildfires in australia, bolivia, canada, and russia; flooding in china, india, romania, and west africa; devastating hurricanes and typhoons in the caribbean, philippines, taiwan, and southeastern united states; catastrophic landslides and floods in china, guatemala, pakistan, and portugal; and destructive earthquakes in chile, china, haiti, indonesia, and pakistan. neither the rains nor the earthquakes were caused by human activity, but the cumulative effects of human land uses and management practices -from dikes separating the mississippi from its floodplain to deforestation in haiti -made the losses of human life and property much worse than they might have been otherwise. the ultimate cause of humans' massive environmental impact is our individual and collective consumptive and reproductive behavior, which has given us spectacular success as a species. but the very things that enabled humans to thrive in nearly every environment have magnified our impacts on those environments, and the technological and political steps we take to mitigate our impacts often aggravate them. too many of us simply take too much from the natural world and ask it to absorb too much waste. for most of human history, people remained tied to their natural surroundings. even as agriculture, writing, and technology advanced, barriers of geography, language, and culture kept humans a diverse lot, each group depending on mostly local and regional knowledge about where and when to find resources necessary for survival. their worldviews, and resulting economies, reflected this dependency. for example, in northwestern north america starting about 3000 years ago, a native economy centered on the abundance of salmon. at its core was the concept of the gift and a belief system that treated all parts of the earth -animate and inanimate -as equal members of a community. in this and other ancient gift economies, a gift was not a possession that could be owned; rather, it had to be passed on, creating a cycle of obligatory returns. individuals or tribes gained prestige through the size of their gifts, not the amount of wealth they accumulated. this system coevolved with the migratory habits of the salmon, which moved en masse upriver to spawn each year. because the indians viewed salmon as equals to themselves, killing salmon represented a gift of food from salmon to people. fishers were obligated to treat salmon with respect or risk losing this vital gift. the exchange of gifts between salmon and humans -food for respectful treatment -minimized waste and overharvest and ensured a continuous supply of food. further, the perennial trading of gifts among the people effectively redistributed the natural wealth brought each year by fluctuating populations of migrating fish, leveling out the boom-and-bust cycles that usually accompany reliance on an uncertain resource. in modern times, the gift economy along with the egalitarian worldview that accompanied it, has been eclipsed by a redistributive economy tied not to an exchange of gifts with nature but to the exploitation of nature and to the technologies that enhance that exploitation. nature became a resource for humans, rather than an equal to humans. in economic terms, natural resources fell under the heading of 'land' in an economic trinity comprising three factors of production: land, labor, and capital. land and resources, including crops, became commodities -expendable or easily substitutable forms of capital -whose value was determined solely by their value in the human marketplace. in 1776 adam smith published his famous inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations, in which he argued that society is merely the sum of its individuals, that the social good is the sum of individual wants, and that the market (the so-called invisible hand) automatically guides individual behavior to the common good. crucial to his theories were division of labor and the idea that all the factors of production were freely mobile. his mechanistic views created an economic rationale for no longer regarding individuals as members of a community linked by ethical, social, and ecological bonds. about the same time, fueling and fueled by the beginnings of the industrial revolution, the study of the natural world was morphing into modern physics, chemistry, geology, and biology. before the mid-19 century, those who studied the natural world -early 19 century german biogeographer baron alexander von humboldt and his disciple charles darwin among them -took an integrated view of science and nature, including humans. both scientists regarded the understanding of the complex interdependencies among living things as the noblest and most important result of scientific inquiry. but this integrated natural philosophy was soon supplanted by more atomistic views, which fit better with industrialization. mass production of new machines relied on division of labor and interchangeable parts. like automobiles on an assembly line, natural phenomena too were broken down into their supposed component parts in a reductionism that has dominated science ever since. rushing to gain indepth, specialized knowledge, science and society lost sight of the need to tie the knowledge together. disciplinary specialization replaced integrative scholarship. neoclassical economics, which arose around 1870, ushered in the economic worldview that rules today. a good's value was no longer tied to the labor required to make it but derived instead from its scarcity. a good's price was determined only by the interaction of supply and demand. as part of 'land,' natural resources therefore became part of the human economy, rather than the material foundation making the human economy possible. because of its doctrine of infinite substitutability, neoclassical economics rejects any limits on growth; forgotten are the classical economic thinkers and contemporaries of von humboldt, including thomas malthus and john stuart mill, who saw limits to the growth of human population and material well-being. consequently, the 19th and 20th centuries saw the rise to dominance of economic indicators that fostered the economic invisibility of nature, misleading society about the relevance of earth's living systems to human well-being. among the worst offenders in this regard are gross national product (gnp) and its cousin, gdp. gnp measures the value of goods and services produced by a nation's citizens or companies, regardless of their location around the globe. gdp, in contrast, measures the value of goods and services produced within a country's borders, regardless of who generates those goods and services. in effect, both gnp and gdp measure money changing hands, no matter what the money pays for; they make no distinction between what is desirable and undesirable, between costs and benefits. both indicators ignore important aspects of the economy like unpaid work or nonmonetary contributions to human fulfillment -parenting, volunteering, checking books out of the library. worse, the indicators also omit social and environmental costs, such as pollution, illness, or resource depletion; they only add and do not subtract. gdp math adds in the value of paid daycare or a stay in the hospital and ignores the value of unpaid parenting or being cared for at home by friends. it adds in the value of timber sold, but fails to subtract the losses in biodiversity, watershed protection, or climate regulation that come when a forest is cut. efforts have been made in the past few decades to create less blinkered economic indicators. social scientists herman daly and john cobb in 1989 developed an index of sustainable economic welfare, which adjusts the united states' gnp by adding in environmental good things and subtracting environmental bad things. public expenditures on education, for example, are weighted as ''goods'' while costs of pollution cleanup, depletion of natural resources, and treating environment-related illnesses are counted as 'bads.' unlike the soaring gdp of recent decades, this index of sustainable economic welfare remained nearly unchanged over the same period. still other work aims to reveal nature's worth in monetary terms by assigning dollar values to ecological goods and services. a 1997 study by ecologist david pimentel and colleagues calculated separate values for specific biological services, such as soil formation, crop breeding, or pollination; by summing these figures, these researchers estimated the total economic benefits of biodiversity for the united states at $319 billion -5% of us gdp at the time -and for the world at $2928 billion. a 2000 analysis by pimentel and colleagues reported that the approximately 50,000 nonnative species in the united states cause major environmental damage and reparation costs amounting to $137 billion a year. as part of the united nations international year of biodiversity in 2010, several studies have translated the value of the world's ecosystems into dollar values. one report estimated the worth of crucial ecosystem services delivered to humans by living systems at $21-72 trillion per year -comparable to a world gross national income of $58 trillion in 2008. another study reported, among other things, that as many as 500 million people worldwide depend on coral reefs -valued between $30 billion and $172 billion a year -for fisheries, tourism, and protection from ocean storms and high waves, services threatened by warmer and more acidic seas. although a monetary approach does not create a comprehensive indicator of environmental condition, it certainly points out that ecological values ignored by the global economy are enormous. the us census bureau predicts that by 2012, the global human population will top 7 billion -having grown by nearly 1 billion people during the decade between the first and second editions of this encyclopedia. from the appearance of h. sapiens about 200,000 years ago, it took humans until 1804 to reach their first billion, 123 years to double to 2 billion, and 33 years to achieve 3 billion. human population doubled again from 3 to 6 billion in about 40 years -before most post-world war ii baby boomers reached retirement age. even with fertility rates declining in developed countries, china, and some developing countries where women are gaining education and economic power, and with pandemics like aids claiming more lives, the census bureau predicts that world population will reach 9 billion by 2044. humans appropriate about 40% of global plant production, 54% of earth's freshwater runoff, and enough of the ocean's bounty to have depleted 63% of assessed marine fish stocks. in energy terms, one person's food consumption amounts to 2500-3000 calories a day, about the same as that of a common dolphin. but with all the other energy and materials humans use, global per capita energy and material consumption have soared even faster than population growth over the past 50 years. now, instead of coevolving with a natural economy, global society is consuming the foundations of that economy, impoverishing earth's living systems, and undermining the foundations of its own existence (figure 1 ). for most of the 20th century, environmental measurements, or indicators, tracked primarily two classes of information: counts of activities directed at environmental protection and the supply of products to people. regulatory agencies are typically preoccupied with legislation, permitting, or enforcement, such as the numbers of environmental laws passed, permits issued, enforcement actions taken, or treatment plants constructed. resource protection agencies concentrate on resource harvest and allocation. water managers, for example, measure water quantity; they allocate water to domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses but seldom make it a priority to reserve supplies for sustaining aquatic life, to protect scenic and recreational values, or simply to maintain the water cycle. foresters, farmers, and fishers count board-feet of timber, bushels of grain, and tons of fish harvested. governmental and nongovernmental organizations charged with protecting biological resources also keep counts of threatened and endangered species. as in the parable of the three blind men and the elephanteach of whom thinks the elephant looks like the one body part he can touch -these or similar indicators measure only one aspect of environmental quality. counting bureaucratic achievements focuses on actions rather than on information about real ecological status and trends. measurements of resource supply keep track of commodity production, not necessarily a system's capacity to continue supplying that commodity. and measuring only what we remove from natural systems, as if we were taking out the interest on a savings account, overlooks the fact that we are usually depleting principal as well. even biologists' counts of threatened and endangered species -which would seem to measure biotic impoverishment directly -still focus narrowly on biological parts, not ecological wholes. enumerating threatened and endangered species is just like counting any other commodity. it brings our attention to a system already in trouble, perhaps too late. and it subtly reinforces our view that we know which parts of the biota are most important. society needs to rethink its use of available environmental indicators, and it needs to develop new indicators that represent current conditions and trends in the systems humans depend on ( table 2) . it particularly needs objective measures more directly tied to the condition, or health, of the environment so that people can judge whether their actions are compromising that condition. such measures should be quantitative, yet easy to understand and communicate; they should be cost-effective and applicable in many circumstances. unlike narrow criteria tracking only administrative, commodity, or endangered species numbers, they should provide reliable signals about status and trends in ecological systems. ideally, effective indicators should describe the present condition of a place, aid in diagnosing the underlying causes of that condition, and make predictions about future trends. they should reveal not only risks from present activities but also potential benefits from alternative management decisions. most important, these indicators should, either singly or in combination, give information explicitly about living systems. measurements of physical or chemical factors can sometimes act as surrogates for direct biological measurements, but only when the connection between those measures and living systems is clearly understood. too often we make assumptionswhen water managers assume that chemically clean water equals a healthy aquatic biota, for example -that turn out to be wrong and fail to protect living systems. as environmental concerns have become more urgent -and governmental and nongovernmental organizations have struggled to define and implement the concept of sustainable development -the effort has grown to create indicator systems that explicitly direct the public's and policymakers' attention to the value of living things. moving well past solely economic indexes like gdp, several indexes now integrate ecological, social, and economic well-being. the index of environmental trends for nine industrialized countries, developed by the nonprofit national center for economic and security alternatives, incorporates ratings of air, land, and water quality; chemical and waste generation; and social system economic system natural system figure 1 relationships among the natural, social, and economic systems on earth. human economies may be thought of as icing atop a two-layer cake. the economic icing is eroding the human social and natural layers beneath it, threatening the foundation and sustainability of all three systems. modified from karr jr and chu ew (1995) ecological integrity: reclaiming lost connections. in: westra l and lemons j (eds.) perspectives in ecological integrity, pp 34-48. dordrecht, netherlands: kluwer academic. energy use since 1970. by its 1995 rankings, environmental quality in the united states had gone down by 22% since 1970, while denmark had declined by 11%. in 2000, world leaders, supported by the united nations development programme, defined a set of eight millennium development goals to be attained by 2015, which combine poverty, education, employment, and environmental sustainability. they include human rights and health goals -such as universal primary education, gender equality, and combating aids and other diseases -as well as ensuring environmental sustainability. in the decade since the program began, progress has been made in reducing poverty; expanding educational opportunities for children, especially in africa; slowing deforestation; and providing better water for many people, among others. but progress controlling climate change, halting biodiversity loss, and achieving gender equality has lagged. a later environmental performance index spearheaded by yale and columbia universities ranks 163 countries on 25 performance indicators in 10 well-established policy categories to determine whether and how well countries are meeting established environmental goals. this index incorporates measurements addressing environmental stresses to human health plus ecosystem health and natural resource management, collectively referred to as ecosystem vitality. the categories representing environmental health include the environmental burden of disease and the effects of air and water quality on human health. those representing ecosystem vitality include air and water resources for ecosystems; biodiversity and habitat; and climate change, among others. although hampered by data gaps and the inability to track changes in countries' performance through time, the index provides a sense of countries' relative performance with regard to the environmental challenges faced by all. top performers in the 2010 rankings included iceland, switzerland, costa rica, and sweden. the united states ranked 61st well below japan and nations in the european union. a resource-accounting approach pioneered in the 1990s by geographers rees and wackernagel (1996) translates humans' impact on nature, particularly resource consumption, into a metaphorical ecological footprint. this accounting estimates the area required by a city, town, nation, or other human community to produce consumed resources and absorb generated wastes; it then compares the physical area occupied by a city or country with the area required to supply that city or country's needs. the 29 largest cities of baltic europe, for example, appropriate areas of forest, agricultural, marine, and wetland ecosystems that are at least 565-1130 times larger than the areas of the cities themselves. according to the global footprint network, national ecological footprints in 2010 ranged from a high of 10.7 hectares per person for the united arab emirates to 0.4 hectares per person for timor-leste and 0.6 for afghanistan and bangladesh. the united states' ecological footprint -8.0 hectares per person -tied for fourth among 152 nations with populations of at least 1 million. one-hundred and four of these nations operate under ecological deficits; that is, their 6. cumulative effects (frequency of catastrophic natural disasters; costs of weather-related property damage; human death tolls; government subsidies of environmentally destructive activities such as fishery overcapitalization, below-cost timber sales, water projects, and agricultural supports; replacement costs for ecological services; pricing that reflects environmental costs; ''green'' taxes; rise in polycultural agricultural practices; number of organic farms) a these indicators have been or could be used to monitor status and trends in environmental quality, including dimensions of biotic impoverishment. without a full spectrum of indicators, however, and without coupling them to direct measures of biological condition, only a partial view of the degree of biotic impoverishment will emerge. consumption exceeds the biological capacity of their lands and waters to provide needed resources and absorb their wastes. at their present rates of consumption, these nations are therefore overexploiting either their own resources or those of other nations. by ecological footprint accounting, raising the nearly 7 billion people on earth in the early 21st century to living standards -and thus ecological footprints -equal to those in the united states would require four planets more than the only one we have. clearly, humans are consuming more resources, and discarding more waste, than earth's living systems can produce or absorb in a given time period. this gap is the global sustainability gap the world now faces. most environmental indexes and accounting systems are still human centered; they still do not measure the condition of the biosphere itself. we may know that biodiversity's services are worth huge sums of money and that our hometown's ecological footprint is much bigger than the town's physical footprint, but how do we know whether specific actions damage living systems or that other actions benefit them? how do we know if aggregate human activity is diminishing life on earth? to answer this question, we need measures that directly assess the condition of living systems. biological assessment directly measures the attributes of living systems to determine the condition of a specific landscape. the very presence of thriving living systems -sea otters and kelp forests off the central california coast; salmon, orcas, and herring in pacific northwest waters; monk seals in the mediterranean sea -says that the conditions those organisms need to survive are also present. a biota is thus the most direct and integrative indicator of local, regional, or global biological condition. biological assessments give us a way to evaluate whether monetary valuations, sustainability indexes, and ecological footprints are telling the truth about human impact on the biosphere. biological assessments permit a new level of integration because living systems, including human cultures, register the accumulated effects of all forms of degradation caused by human actions. direct, comprehensive biological monitoring and assessment has been done for many aquatic systems; measures are less developed for terrestrial systems. the index of biological integrity (ibi), for example, was developed in 1981 to assess the health of streams in the us midwest and has since helped scientists, resource managers, and citizen volunteers understand, protect, and restore rivers in at least 67 countries worldwide (karr 2006) . borrowing from the same page as more recent sustainability indexes, ibi takes the concept behind economic indexes like gdp or the consumer price index -that of multiple indicators integrated into a multimetric index -and applies it to animals and plants in bodies of water or other environments. the specific measurements ( table 3 ) are sensitive to a broad range of human effects in waterways, such as sedimentation, nutrient enrichment, toxic chemicals, physical habitat destruction, and altered flows. the resulting index combines the responses of biological parts such as species, as well as processes such as food web dynamics, to human actions. indexes of biological integrity have been developed for a number of aquatic and terrestrial environments; the most widely used indexes for assessing rivers examine fishes and benthic (bottom-dwelling) invertebrates. these groups are abundant and easily sampled, and the species living in virtually any water body represent a diversity of anatomical, ecological, and behavioral adaptations. as humans alter watersheds and water bodies, changes occur in taxonomic richness (biodiversity), species composition (which species are present), individual health, and feeding and reproductive relationships. sampling the inhabitants of a stream can tell us much about that stream and its landscape. biological diversity is higher upstream of wastewater treatment plants than downstream, for example, whereas, at the same location, year-toyear variation is low (figure 2) . biological sampling can also reveal differences between urban and rural streams. for instance, samples of invertebrates from one of the best streams in rural king county, in the us state of washington, contain 27 kinds, or taxa, of invertebrates; similar samples from an urban stream in the city of seattle contain only 7. the rural stream has 18 taxa of mayflies, stoneflies, and caddisflies; the urban stream, only 2 or 3. when these and other metrics are combined in an index based on invertebrates, the resulting benthic ibi (b-ibi) ranks the condition, or health, of a stream numerically ( table 4) . a benthic ibi can also be used to compare sites in different regions. areas in wyoming's grand teton national park where human visitors are rare have near-maximum b-ibis. streams with moderate recreation taking place in their watersheds have b-ibis that are not significantly lower than those with no human presence, but places where recreation is heavy are clearly damaged. urban streams in the nearby town of jackson are even more degraded, yet not as bad as urban streams in seattle. nation-specific biological assessments also can be and are being done. the us environmental protection agency (2006), for example, performed a nationwide survey of stream condition using an ibi-like multimetric index. the survey found that 28% of us stream miles were in good condition in table 3 biological attributes in two indexes of biological integrity comparison with least-disturbed reference sites in their regions, 25% were in fair condition, and 42% were in poor condition (5% were not assessed). the agency has been expanding this effort to include other water resource types, including coastal waters, coral reefs, lakes, large rivers, and wetlands. since 2000, the heinz center (2008) has published two editions of its report on the state of us ecosystems, which seek to capture a view of the large-scale patterns, conditions, and trends across the united states. the center defined and compiled a select set of indicators -specific variables tracking ecosystem extent and pattern, chemical and physical characteristics, biological components, and goods and services derived from the natural world -for six key ecosystems: coasts and oceans, farmlands, forests, fresh waters, grasslands and shrublands, and urban and suburban landscapes. among the many conclusions of the 2008 report were that the acreage burned every year by wildfires was on the increase; nonnative fish had invaded nearly every watershed in the lower 48 states; and chemical contaminants were found in virtually all streams and most groundwater wells, often at levels above those set to protect human health or wildlife. on the plus side, ecosystems were increasing their storage of carbon, soil quality was improving, and crop yields had grown significantly. the massive international un millennium ecosystem assessment (2005) remains the gold standard for synthesizing ecological conditions at a variety of scales. from 2001 through 2005, the project examined the full range of global ecosystems -from those relatively undisturbed, such as natural forests, to landscapes with mixed patterns of human use to ecosystems intensively managed and modified by humans, such as agricultural land and urban areas -and communicated its findings in terms of the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being. the resulting set of reports drew attention to the many kinds of services people derive from ecosystems, specifically, supporting services, such as photosynthesis, soil formation, and waste absorption; regulating services, such as climate and flood control and maintenance of water quality; provisioning services, such as food, wood, and nature's pharmacopoeia; creek near portland, oregon (united states), taxa richness differed little between years but differed dramatically between sites upstream of a wastewater outfall and sites downstream. (b) taxa richness also differed between two creeks with wastewater outfalls (tickle and north fork deep) and one creek without an outfall (foster). all three streams flowed through watersheds with similar land uses. fig. 2 for graphs of selected b-ibi metrics at these sites. and cultural services from scientific to spiritual. in addition, the reports explicitly tied the status of diverse ecosystems and their capacity to provide these services to human needs as varied as food and health, personal safety and security, and social cohesion. even while recognizing that the human species is buffered against ecological changes by culture and technology, the reports highlighted our fundamental dependence on the flow of ecosystem services and our direct responsibility for the many faces of biotic impoverishment. among other findings, the assessment found that 60% of the services provided by ecosystems are being degraded at levels that derail efforts to stem poverty, hunger, and disease among the poor everywhere. government subsidies that provide incentives to overharvest natural resources are a leading cause of the decline in renewable natural resources. such declines are not limited to coral reefs and tropical forests, which have been on the public's radar for some time; they are pervasive in grasslands, deserts, mountains, and other landscapes as well. moreover, the degradation of ecosystem services could grow worse during the first half of the 21st century, effectively blocking achievement of the united nations' eight millennium development goals. the core message embodied in ecological, especially biological, assessments is that preventing harmful environmental impacts goes beyond narrow protection of clean water or clear skies, even beyond protecting single desired species. certain species may be valuable for commerce or sport, but these species do not exist in isolation. we cannot predict which organisms are vital for the survival of commercial species or species we want for other reasons. failing to protect all organisms -from microbes and fungi to plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates -ignores the key contributions of these groups to healthy biotic communities. no matter how important a particular species is to humans, it cannot persist outside the biological context that sustains it. direct biological assessment objectively measures this context and is fundamental to advancing the kinds of syntheses like those of the millennium ecosystem assessment. every animal is alert to dangers in its environment. a microscopic protozoan gliding through water responds to light, temperature, and chemicals in its path, turning away at the first sign of something noxious. a bird looking for food must decide when to pursue prey and when not, because pursuit might expose the bird to predators. the bird might risk pursuit when it is hungry but not when it has young to protect. animals that assess risks properly and adjust their behavior are more likely to survive; in nature, flawed risk assessment often means death or the end of a genetic line. humans, too, are natural risk assessors. each person chooses whether to smoke or drink, fly or take the train, drive a car or ride a motorcycle and at what speeds. each decision is the result of a partially objective, partially subjective internal calculus that weighs benefits and risks against one another. risk is a combination of two factors: the numerical probability that an adverse event will occur and the consequences of the adverse event. people may not always have the right signals about these two factors, however, and may base their risk calculus on the wrong clues. city dwellers in the united states generally feel that it is safer to drive home on a saturday night than to fly in an airplane, for example. even though the numerical odds of an accident are much higher on the highway than in the air, people fear more the consequences of an airplane falling out of the sky. human society also strives to reduce its collective exposure to risks. governments seldom hesitate to use military power to defend their sovereignty or, albeit more reluctantly, their regulatory power to reduce workplace risks and risks associated with consumer products like automobiles. but people and their governments have been much less successful in defining and reducing a broad range of ecological risks, largely because they have denied that the threats are real. policies and plans generated by economists, technologists, engineers, and even ecologists typically assume that the lost and damaged components of living systems are unimportant or can be repaired or replaced. widespread ecological degradation has resulted directly from the failure of modern society to properly assess the ecological risks it faces. like the fate of old kingdom egypt or easter island, our civilization's future depends on our ability to recognize this deficiency and correct it. risk assessment as formally practiced by various government agencies began as a way to evaluate the effects of toxic substances on human health, usually the effects of single substances, such as pollutants or drugs, from single sources, such as a chemical plant. during the 1990s, the focus widened to encompass mixtures of substances and also ecological risks. ecological risk assessment by the us environmental protection agency (1998) asks five questions: is there a problem? what is the nature of the problem? what are the exposure and ecological effects? (a hazard to which no one or nothing is exposed is not considered to pose any risk.) how can we summarize and explain the problem to affected parties, both at-risk populations and those whose activities would be curtailed? how can we manage the risks? even though these are good questions, ecological risk management has not made any visible headway in stemming biotic impoverishment. its central failing comes from an inability to correctly answer the second question, what is the nature of the problem? our present political, social, and economic systems simply do not give us the right clues about what is at risk. none of society's most familiar indicatorswhether gdp or number of threatened and endangered species -measure the consequences, or risks, of losing living systems. if biotic impoverishment is the problem, then it only makes sense to direct environmental policy toward protecting the integrity of biotic systems. integrity implies a wholeness or unimpaired condition. in present biological usage, integrity refers to the condition at sites with little or no influence from human activity; the organisms there are the products of natural evolutionary and biogeographic processes in the absence of humans. tying the concept of integrity to an evolutionary framework provides a benchmark against which to evaluate sites that humans have altered. directing policy toward protecting biological integrity -as called for in the united states' clean water act, canada's national park act, and the european union's water framework directive, among others -does not, however, mean that humans must cease all activity that interferes with a ''pristine'' earthly biota. the demands of feeding, clothing, and housing billions of people mean that few places on earth will maintain a biota with evolutionary and biogeographic integrity. rather, because humans depend on living systems, it is in our interest to manage our activities so they do not compromise a place's capacity to support those activities in the future; that capacity can be called ecological health. ecological health describes the preferred state of sites heavily used for human purposes: cities, croplands, tree farms, water bodies stocked for fish, and the like. at these places, it is impractical to set a goal of integrity in an evolutionary sense, but we should avoid practices that damage these places to the point where we can no longer derive the intended benefits indefinitely. for example, agricultural practices that leave behind saline soils, depress regional water tables, and erode fertile topsoil faster than it can be renewed destroy the land's biological capacity for agriculture; such practices are unhealthy in both ecological and economic terms. biological integrity as a policy goal redirects our focus away from maximizing goods and services for the human economy toward ways to manage human affairs within the bounds set by the natural economy. it begins to turn our attention away from questions such as, how much stress can landscapes and ecosystems absorb? to ones such as, how can responsible human actions protect and restore ecosystems? in contrast to risk assessment, striving to protect biological integrity is more likely to lead away from mandated corrective actions in the form of technological fixes for environmental problems and toward practices that prevent ecological degradation and encourage ecological restoration. leopold (1949, pp. 224-225) , in a sand county almanac, was the first to invoke the concept of integrity in an ecological sense: ''a thing is right when it tends to preserve the integrity, stability, and beauty of the biotic community. it is wrong when it tends otherwise.'' managing for biological integrity requires the kind of ethical commitment inherent in leopold's words. we are called to curb consumerism and limit population size, to embrace less-selfish attitudes toward land stewardship, and to understand that the biosphere matters. instead of calling on human technical and spiritual wellsprings to manage resources, we have to call on them for managing human affairs. we have to find and use appropriate measurements for all the factors contributing to biotic impoverishment, be they climate change, overharvesting, agriculture, or environmental injustice. measurement of environmental impact founded on the evolutionary idea of integrity allow us to directly assess biotic condition and to compare that condition with what might be expected in a place with little or no human influence. at least then we can make an informed choice: continue with activities that degrade biotic condition or think of an alternative. the ecological world is a complex, variable, and often unpredictable system. when managing for ecological risks, people and their governments need to expect the unexpected and develop formal, yet flexible means of coping with environmental surprises. rather than plunge ahead with projects entailing ecological risks because they can be done, decision makers should follow the precautionary principle, which holds that regulators should act to prevent potential environmental harm even in the absence of certainty. it acknowledges the existence of uncertainty rather than deny it, and it includes mechanisms to safeguard against potentially harmful effects. although inappropriate ecological risk assessment and management are more often the norm today, modern institutions are capable of recognizing ecological threats correctly and responding to them in time, as they did with the montreal protocol. a decade after the agreement's adoption, satellite measurements in the stratosphere indicated that ozone-depleting pollutants were in fact on the decline. given the treaty's success, some policy experts have suggested using it to help curb global warming. specifically, negotiators at the 2010 annual meeting of signatory parties were considering a proposed expansion of the ozone treaty to phase out the production and use of industrial chemicals called hydrofluorocarbons, which have thousands of times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide. even though the montreal protocol was not designed to fight climate change, policymakers in favor of the new proposal say that it could and should be used to achieve broader environmental objectives. early in the 20th century, two sciences of ''home maintenance'' began to flourish: the young science of ecology (from the greek oikos, meaning home) and a maturing neoclassical economics (also from oikos). ecology arose to document and understand the interactions between organisms and their living and nonliving surroundings -in essence, how organisms make a living in the natural economy. in fact, ernst haeckel, who coined the term in the 1860s, defined ecology in an 1870 article as the body of knowledge concerning the economy of nature. neoclassical economics, in contrast, reinforced humans' self-appointed dominion over nature's wealth. it brought unparalleled gains in societal welfare in some places, but it also divorced the human economy from the natural one on which it stands (see figure 1) . by now it is clear to economists and ecologists alike that human actions and their effects have reached scales unprecedented in the history of life. we have altered earth's physical and chemical environment, changed the planet's water and nutrient cycles, and perturbed its climate. we have unleashed the greatest mass extinction in 65 my and distorted the structure and function of nonhuman and human communities worldwide. in trying to make our own living, we have jeopardized the earth's capacity to sustain other species and our own species as well. we are losing the bio in biosphere. now, faced with these unprecedented losses, we need to understand -not deny -the ecological consequences of what we do. we urgently need a new science and art of home maintenance, one that sees the human species' role as ecosystem engineer for what it has become and reconnects human and natural economies. this new science can help us understand and correctly interpret the consequences of human-driven change. by using indicators that measure what matters for sustaining living systems, this new science can make nature visible again and shed new light on the value of the ancient heritage we share with the larger biosphere. it can help us reunite the fragments of our worldview and re-create ethical, social, and ecological bonds that were put aside two centuries ago in the name of progress. and such a science can enable us to reengineer our own social, political, and economic institutions instead of ecosystems. this we must donow -before we impoverish the biosphere and ourselves for all time. the wayfinders: why ancient wisdom matters in the modern world guns, germs, and steel: the fates of human societies evolution, consequences and future of plant and animal domestication collapse: how societies choose to fail or succeed floods, famines, and emperors: el niño and the fate of civilizations the state of the nation's ecosystems: measuring the lands, waters, and living resources of the united states environment, scarcity, and violence intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) (2007) climate change seven foundations of biological monitoring and assessment a sand county almanac: and sketches here and there the challenge for africa. new york: pantheon books. millennium ecosystem assessment (2005) ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis ultimate security: the environmental basis of political stability song of the dodo: island biogeography in an age of extinction the economics of ecosystems and biodiversity: mainstreaming the economics of nature: a synthesis of the approach, conclusions and recommendations of teeb. united nations environment programme guidelines for ecological risk assessment wadeable streams assessment: a collaborative survey of the nation's streams, epa 841-b-06-002 our ecological footprint: reducing human impact on the earth the little things that run the world the earth in transition: patterns and processes of biotic impoverishment a short history of progress key: cord-323703-fsj736dg authors: patterson, grace t.; thomas, lian f.; coyne, lucy a.; rushton, jonathan title: moving health to the heart of agri-food policies; mitigating risk from our food systems date: 2020-08-30 journal: glob food sec doi: 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100424 sha: doc_id: 323703 cord_uid: fsj736dg our food systems are progressively more industrialized and consolidated with many modern food value chains involving multiple countries and continents, and as such being associated with changes in risk profile and impacts of emerging and re-emerging diseases. disease outbreaks that sweep through a single region can have massive impacts on food supply, while severe outbreaks of human pathogens can disrupt agricultural labor supply or demand for products perceived as ‘unsafe’. market pressures have generally rewarded production of cash crops for fuel and energy dense, low nutrient processed foods over production of fruits and vegetables for local consumption. climbing rates of food-related ncds and pre-existing conditions leave the population increasingly susceptible to infectious diseases that are often driven by or arise from the food system. therefore disease and diet from our food systems cause impacts on human health, and human health issues can impact on the functioning of the food system. the covid-19 outbreak is the most recent example of food system driven disease emergence and of massive supply and demand shocks in the food system, experienced as a direct and indirect result of this disease. the effects of the food system on disease spread (and vice versa) must be addressed in future plans to prevent and mitigate large scale outbreaks. health policies must acknowledge the food system as the base of our health system, as must agri-food policy recognize the pre-eminence of human health (directly and indirectly) in decision making. the health of the global population is underpinned by our food systems, yet these systems are often only nominally included in health policy. in recent times, attention has been given to reformulation and marketing policies in moderate attempts to reduce climbing rates of obesity and non-communicable diseases (ncds) (oecd, 2019) . others focus on reducing foodborne pathogens by regulating processing and enacting trade restrictions (trienekens and beulens, 2001) . many of these policies focus on downstream actors and processes in the food system and neglect the foundations of how our food is produced. while such interventions are easier to enact, they have limited effects on health and are generally reactionary and insufficient to reverse the trajectory of increasing health burdens. in this manuscript we review some of the major human health externalities driven by our current food systems, with an emphasis on livestock-systems and their linkages to the wider food system, the impacts of our response to these externalities and outline key areas in which better integrated health & agri-food policy may mitigate these factors. although the interactions between food systems and our health are many and complex, we outline here four key health externalities arising from these systems of concern across the globe; 1) the dual burden of malnutrition, 2) foodborne disease, 3) antimicrobial resistance and 4) emergence of novel pathogens. despite an increasing ability to produce sufficient calories for the growing human population, distributional inequalities have produced a situation where we face the dual burden of chronic under-nutrition (black et al., 2013) and a global pandemic of overweight and obesity and related ncds, often within the same geographical locality (shrimpton and rokx, 2012) . diet related risks are estimated to be responsible for 255 million (234-274mn) disability adjusted life years (dalys) a year globally, and dietary improvements could potentially prevent one in every five global deaths (afshin et al., 2019) . diet related risks also monopolize large portions of many national health-care budgets (phe, 2017) . from 2020-2050, it is estimated that an average of 8⋅4% of healthcare expenditure in the 36 organisation for economic co-operation and development (oecd) member countries will be spent treating obesity-related diseases, equivalent to us dollars (usd) purchasing power parity 311 billion per year (oecd, 2019) . current food systems exploit demand for affordable, convenient, and tasty food to encourage consumption of nutritionally poor, ultraprocessed foods in both high, middle and low income countries. as economic markets incentivize expanded food value chains, they inevitably produce food with more and more processing to improve taste, texture, and longevity (swinburn et al., 2019) . the processed state of these foods, not necessarily the macronutrient content or energy density, induces increased calorie intake and weight gain associated with exposure to ultra-processed foods (hall et al., 2019) . marginalized groups in high income countries are often reliant on these highly processed, energy-dense, nutrient poor foods to meet their energy needs. ultra-processed foods can be aspirational in low and middle income countries (lmics) and are becoming more affordable and convenient (swinburn et al., 2019) . these foods (and the value chains that produce and market them) are among the most impactful determinants of the growing global burden of food-related ncds. food-related ncds also increase susceptibility to infectious disease. for diseases such as zika, west nile, and dengue death is rare in the absence of any pre-existing conditions (badawi et al., 2018; chan-yeung and xu, 2003) and preliminary analysis suggests that the likelihood of adverse outcomes in sars-cov-2 are significantly higher in patients with hypertension and diabetes (zhou et al., 2018) . this increased risk may be driven by upregulation of the sars-cov-2 receptor ace2 or heightened inflammation in people with these comorbidities (pinto et al., 2020) . these diet-related co-morbidities are visible symptoms of underlying structural inequalities which result in marginalized communities bearing disproportionate disease burdens (garg et al., 2020; icnarc, 2020) . whilst the quantity and nutritional quality of our global diets gains increasing attention, foodborne diseases are also associated with a substantial human health burden, with approximately 33 million dalys lost annually through 31 of the major foodborne diseases, the burden of which are disproportionately borne by lmics (jaffee et al., 2018; li et al., 2019) . thirty-five percent of this burden is attributable to pathogens from animal source foods (asfs) (li et al., 2019) , the increasing demand for which, particularly across lmics, is a major driver in an increasing foodborne disease burden (quested et al., 2010) . specific aspects of livestock value chains associated with an increase foodborne disease risk may differ across 'informal' and 'formal value chains. high prevalence foci of the zoonotic tapeworm taenia solium, etiological agent of neurocysticercosis, are found where free-ranging pig husbandry practises coincide with low levels of sanitation and insufficient implementation of meat inspection . informal value chains, which supply 85-95% of food needs in sub-saharan africa, and the poorly regulated slaughter, processing and retail practises associated with them can result in extensive microbial contamination of products, which may not be sufficiently mitigated by consumer food preparation practises (jaffee et al., 2018) . the formalisation of livestock value chains does not completely mitigate all foodborne disease risks. longer value chains with increasing number of processing or handling steps between 'farm and fork' provide opportunities for cross-contamination, adulteration or spoilage without sufficiently enforced regulation. the progressively intensified systems of livestock production seen increasingly across the globe may also exacerbate the risk posed by microbial hazards. intensive systems bring animals into close proximity under circumstances which induce metabolic and psychological stress (humphrey, 2006; martínez-miró et al., 2016) , increasing the contact opportunities and susceptibility of these populations for disease transmission, including those pathogens which have important implications for food safety. this is particularly evident in monogastric systems, where intensive production contributes to over half of the global pork production and over 70% of global poultry production (steinfeld et al., 2006; thornton, 2010) , and where campylobacter and salmonella spp. have been increasingly prevalent (carrique-mas et al., 2014) . in order to mitigate the effects of high pathogen challenge, which also have production-limiting effects, intensive livestock systems have been heavily reliant on antimicrobials for prophylactic, treatment and growth promotion reasons . resistant bacteria reside in humans, animals, food and the environment and there are no barriers to the transmission of resistance genes between these sites or amongst bacterial species (holmes et al., 2016) . pathways for the spread of resistant organisms, from within animal populations to humans, are well recognized and result from the selective pressures from antimicrobial use in livestock. consequently, antimicrobial use in food-producing animal species represents an important driver of antimicrobial resistance (amr) (marshall and levy, 2011) . the human health burden from amr is forecasted to reach 100 trillion usd by 2050 with a worldwide mortality around 10 million (o'neill, 2016) . in response to the amr crises, there is growing international pressure to reduce the use of antimicrobials within livestock systems and to prohibit the use of antimicrobial growth promoters (agps) in livestock. trade-offs exist, however, between the risks of antimicrobial use and the pressure to ensure global food security. a ban on agps could be associated with a reduction in the value of global meat production of between 13 and 44 billion usd and restricting the use of antimicrobials for prophylactic and therapeutic use whilst retaining current intensive husbandry practices will impact both productivity and animal welfare. lastly, disease emergence and transmission are of growing concern within our intensive, increasingly homogenous and interconnected food systems. lack of genetic diversity has become commonplace in our global food systems, within both livestock and crop production (bennett et al., 2018; khoury et al., 2014) , and is a risk factor for heightened susceptibility to outbreaks of plant and animal disease. this 'monoculture effect' is best illustrated in agronomy, where non-diverse cropping can lead to large scale losses, such as those suffered through rice blast (zhu et al., 2000) and the panama disease epidemic of bananas in the 1960s (ordonez et al., 2015) . similar genetic susceptibilities exist within livestock. porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus, a major disease burden to the global pork sector, has led to exacerbated losses within genetically homogenous herds as compared to herds with a wider genetic pool (lunney et al., 2010; halbur et al., 1998) . as well as the emergence of production limiting pathogens within livestock systems, the emergence of novel, zoonotic pathogens from our food systems is at the forefront of the global consciousness, of which sars-cov-2 is only the latest example in an increasing frequency of such events. novel zoonoses have emerged most commonly from wild mammals such as rodents and bats, which have either adapted to anthropogenic habitat changes, or have increased contact with humans or livestock through agricultural incursions into habitats or establishment of bush-meat value chains (johnson et al., 2020) . examples of direct pathogen spillover from wildlife directly to humans, predominantly associated with formal or informal bushmeat value chains, include hiv and ebola (hahn et al., 2000; kock et al., 2019) . there is also a potential threat to human health from the transmission of disease from wildlife into livestock populations and then further propagation through intensive production (wilcox et al., 2014) . in 1998 cases of the novel febrile encephalitis, nipah virus (niv), emerged amongst pig farmers in malaysia. the intensification of mango and pig production within a localised geographical area are believed to have provided a pathway for the virus, circulating in fruit bats, to infect an intensively managed commercial pig population and subsequently spread to farmers (pulliam et al., 2012) . zoonotic and non-zoonotic disease outbreaks and our responses to the presence or risk of these pathogens can destabilize food systems, leading to increased food insecurity and downstream health and economic effects. fig. 1 illustrates several of the key disease outbreaks of the previous three decades which have had profound impacts on human health and food-security. in europe, outbreaks of bovine spongiform encephalitis (bse) and food and mouth disease (fmd) led to large scale supply and demand shocks in the beef and dairy industries. the use of meat and bone meal in cattle feed was associated with the mid 1980's emergence of the degenerative prion disease bse, which was later found to cause newvariant crutzfeldt-jacob disease (nvcjd) in humans (anderson et al., 1996) . this led to a raft of mitigation measures with short and long-term costs, including large scale culling programmes, new harvesting and processing regulation, a ban on animal by-product use in animal feeds and restrictions on beef and other animal products (including milk, semen and embryos) export from affected countries (kimball and taneda, 2004; thiermann, 2004) . the effects on the food system and health from the fmd outbreak in the uk 2001 also extended beyond production losses (knight-jones and rushton, 2013) . trade restrictions between fmd free and fmd affected countries were sometimes extended to unrelated products. culls produced public outrage against the livestock industry that outlasted the outbreak itself, which together likely contributed to the observed spike of depression and suicide among farmers (thomas et al., 2003) . in areas where a large proportion of the population is dependent on agriculture for both income and food supply, such as ethiopia, endemic fmd has direct effects on the food security of farmers by reducing milk production and oxen availability for cropping (knight-jones and rushton, 2013) . pork is now the most frequently consumed meat per capita worldwide and is responsible for over half of meat consumption in asia (ritchie and roser, 2019) . introduction of african swine fever virus (asfv) into china, home of approximately 50% of the global herd (ritchie and roser, 2019) , resulted in rapid spread throughout the naive pig population. over 10% of pigs have died or been culled (fao, 2019), causing an estimated $140 billion in direct economic losses (moore, 2019) and reverberations through industries including feed mills, veterinary services, restaurants, and tourism. pork prices soared to a peak of 110% year-on-year (moore, 2019), increasing demand for and price of other meat products and leaving poorer households at increased risk of food insecurity and malnutrition (rocha et al., 2016) . similar patterns were seen across the same region less than a decade before in response to outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza where aggressive containment measures drove increases in meat prices and heightened local food insecurity (burgos et al., 2012) . lmics, particularly those in southeast asia, are the site of the majority of industrialized poultry farming. large scale flocks are more likely to contract hpai (h5n1) than small, personal flocks (otte et al., 2008) and experience the greater share of economic effects. yet smallholders, traders, slaughterers, and transporters are at greatest risk of personal negative health outcomes as a result of such diseases, as they often belong to poor households that are unable to weather economic shocks and are sensitive to food insecurity and malnutrition. the west african ebola outbreak of 2014 provides an example of severe, localized effects of an outbreak on the food system due to travel restrictions and market closures (mann et al., 2015) . panic buying caused shortages of some items and dramatic increases in prices. labor shortages resulted in decreased food production and loss of income across communities, particularly in rural regions (de la fuente et al., 2019) . nutrition operations were a low priority among humanitarian response groups and were inadequately supplied (kodish et al., 2019) . they also neglected to consider the needs of communities that did not have ebola outbreaks but had become food insecure from food production losses. after the outbreak, many ebola disease survivors were denied the opportunity to purchase food due to lingering fear of infection. on a global scale, the ongoing covid-19 outbreak has also led to massive perturbations in food systems. lockdowns and retail closures directly cause food insecurity among vulnerable populations, national stockpiling has prompted some countries to halt or reduce exports of staple grains and legumes (reuters, 2020) , and travel restrictions have inhibited farmers across europe from hiring seasonal migrant workers to harvest fruit and vegetable crops (carroll et al., 2020) . workers in food retail and transport that remain employed are experiencing unexpected health risks, severely reducing the ability of some sectors of our food-systems to operate as has been particularly noticeable in the vulnerability of meatpackers and subsequent covid-19-related shutdown of some meat processing plants in usa (apostolidis, 2020) . workers provided with little protection or compensation have in some instances organized strikes to protest their lack of economic and health protection (mcginnis, 2020) and lengthy screening proceedures or social-distancing measures have the potential to dramatically reduce production capacity in some sectors (hailu, 2020) . once social distancing protocols are lifted, medium to large enterprises will likely be best poised to recover and many small businesses integral to local food systems will be unable to bounce back, producing economic knock-on effects on wholesalers, processors, and producers across the supply chain. while food insecurity surges as a result of control measures, food waste is also increasing. it is estimated that over a third of all food produced for human consumption is wasted (fao, 2011), a figure which will grow as shopping patterns change from multiple small shops per week to larger, more infrequent shops (cranfield university, 2020). food systems lack the flexibility needed to adjust to rapidly evolving situations within disease outbreaks, causing still more waste (evans, 2020) . restaurant and coffee shop closures have decreased demand for milk and dairy farmers have been told to pour milk down the drain, yet supermarkets have restricted purchase of milk and other core products (keane, 2020) . closures of large meat processing plants due to worker illness will result in large scale culling of animals across the usa. meanwhile, emergency assistance agencies are running low on supplies to support the deluge of the newly food insecure (power et al., 2020) . despite the undeniable link between our food systems and health, the sustainable development goals (sdgs) do not explicitly link these areas other than within the context of malnutrition (un, 2015) . public health policies must pay greater consideration to the role of food systems as the baseline of population health, while agri-food policies should consider human health as their raison d'être. agri-food policies can promote health in direct and indirect waysglobally 27% percent of employment is in agriculture, this rises to 60% in low income countries (world bank, 2020). sustainable agriculture supports economic prosperity, environmental wellbeing, and social equity (i.e. the triple bottom line), all of which further support stable access to healthy diets and healthy environments. well executed, integrated health-agri-food policy should improve baseline health, mitigate infectious disease risks and increase the resilience of our food systems to protect food security, particularly for the most vulnerable. herein we highlight some key examples of these policies in action, where further strengthening is required, and the dynamics that complicate enactment of health-centered agri-food policy (fig. 2) . evidence-based health-agri-food policies that support access and uptake of healthy diet and exercise, particularly in communities with high inequality, can help reverse the growing trend towards obesity and minimize morbidity and mortality from infectious disease. a multipronged approach is needed to set healthy food preferences at an early age, change the environment to encourage healthy choices (particularly fig. 2 . integration of health and agri-food policy. current and recommended agri-food and health policies to reduce the frequency and impact of disease outbreaks. at the point of purchase), and reduce barriers to expression of healthy preferences (hawkes et al., 2015) . policies that limit consumer exposure to less healthy foods by reducing portion sizes, reformulating foods, and regulating advertising are often blocked or weakened by lobbying groups (swinburn et al., 2019) . there is little immediate financial motivation to adopt more environmentally and health friendly standards, though social demand is increasingly reorienting markets to value transparency and social and environmental aspects of corporate performance. policy interventions that rely on behavioral change, such as consumer awareness campaigns and front of pack labeling, are relatively easier to enact but have limited longevity or effectiveness in the presence of other food stimuli or under stress (hill, 2009; leng et al., 2017) . the dynamics surrounding the adoption, implementation, and effectiveness of regulatory health policy are exemplified by the high fat, salt, and sugar (hfss) taxes that have been adopted across diverse nations with a wide range of outcomes (world health organization regional office for europe, 2015). most slightly reduced consumption of hfss foods but it is unclear what affect, if any, these taxes have on other health indicators in isolation. low income consumers that rely on affordable, energy-dense foods may be unduly burdened by hfss taxes but benefit from alternative price interventions such as subsidization of fruit and vegetables (neff et al., 2009) . while current regulatory interventions in isolation have minimal effect on downstream health indicators, they provide precedent for future regulatory policy and encourage action surrounding the role of large companies in shaping the food environment. significant improvements in global population health will require cooperation of people and companies involved in food systems to fundamentally change how they operate, but some communities have overhauled their local food environments with a ground-up, systemic approach that bypasses many of the barriers encountered on a national level and inspires awareness and innovation. in baltimore, usa, policies have been enacted to re-familiarize consumers with the systems and people that produce their food (department of planning, 2018), incentivize wholesaler produce distribution to small convenience stores, and encourage grocery chains to move into low income communities. city government also supports local ownership of food retail outlets in underserved neighborhoods, cultivating economic growth, a sense of community, and the agency to improve the health issues people see in their neighborhood. baltimore's food policy initiatives demonstrate how to mobilize community members to incorporate agri-food policies across city operations and government, business and economic development, and community organizations to combat the multifactorial roots of poor dietary health. even prior to the covid-19 pandemic the international community had been aware of the increasing threat from emerging zoonotic pathogens, the 'dual burden' imposed by endemic zoonoses on livestock productivity and human health, the biological and chemical hazards present in our food and the looming spectre of a post-antibiotic world. the protection of consumers from zoonoses and foodborne diseases acquired from the consumption of diseased animals or via unhygenic slaughter and processing has been a concern for centuries and formal meat inspection, still broadly recognisable today, was instigated in europe in the 1880's (edwards et al., 1997) . the multi-faceted nature of infectious disease risks within our food-systems and the plethora of public and private actors working within them, with differing roles and responsibilities has driven calls for an integrated 'one health' approach, endorsed at the highest level by the who, oie, fao tripartite and the world bank. despite growing acceptance of this concept internationally and the establishment of several regional and national one health units, there are still major challenges in operationalization. power struggles between ministries for 'ownership' of the movement, poorly integrated policies, lack of interoperability in data systems, and resource constraint for frontline services have all been identified as key barriers, and the multiplication of one health initiatives, specifically those with single issue focus, may risk undermining the strength of the moment (spencer et al., 2019) . this splintering and 'siloisation' of one health can be illustrated by kenya, where four separate one health bodies now exist with separate remits for zoonoses, amr, aflatoxins and pesticides but with no over-arching co-coordinating mechanism across these areas, and with other one health issues such as foodborne disease lacking an inter-ministerial 'home' (kimani et al., 2019) . although challenges exist, the one health approach has been repeatedly employed to mitigate animal and human disease threats, as exemplified by the 2017 response to colistin resistant e. coli (crec) in china (wang et al., 2020) . colistin is used predominantly in the livestock sector but is an important antimicrobial of last resort for human disease. following the discovery of widespread distribution of colistin resistance gene mcr-1 in e. coli, the chinese ministry of agriculture and rural affairs banned use of colistin as a growth promoter in livestock. three years on, significant reduction was observed in the relative abundance of mcr-1 in pigs, crec carriage in pigs and chickens, human carriage of mcr-1 positive e. coli, and human infection with crec. a clearly defined problem and solution, strong political support, and effective inter-agency enforcement contributed to the success of this policy and provides guidance for future approaches to threats to animal and human health. the one health approach will only be as strong as its constituent parts; environmental stewardship is often missed completely, whilst veterinary and human public health systems have often been chronically under-funded in favor of support to primary food production and curative human medicine. strengthening these capacities and meeting countries' commitments under the international health regulations and the oie pathway for veterinary services programmes is integral to the global health security agenda (belay et al., 2017) . the capacity building activities within the ghsa thus far have relied predominately on external donor funding. ultimately, the sustainability of these activities will require resource commitments by national government and a greater acknowledgement of the role of private actors across food systems (kelly et al., 2017) . there an increasing number of private standard setting organizations to enhance global food safety such as the global-good agricultural practises standard (king et al., 2017) . private standards can be excessively high, which improves food safety but may be unattainable for smallholders or farmers in lmics, effectively shutting them out of global markets and further highlighting the need for a collaborative, multi-sectoral approach to food safety. responses to emerging pathogens and outbreaks are often fear driven and reactionary. during the swine flu (h1n1) outbreak, egypt culled their entire pig population, despite pigs not transmitting the virus to humans (atlani-duault and kendall, 2009 ). traceability systems have become more sophisticated and widespread and can support narrower outbreak responses, yet retailers and governments often issue blanket recalls and import restrictions during health crises (van der vorst, 2006) . similar to other components of food safety programs, development of and compliance with better traceability systems largely rest with private companies and may not be harmonized with standards set by public health bodies. to improve response time and accuracy during outbreak events, quality traceability systems across the value chain must be combined with transparency and communication with decision makers. prior to such events, governments should develop and train networks of communication that connect food systems agents, trustworthy spokespeople, and consumers to minimize panic and reactionary measures (who et al., 2019) . national outbreak preparedness plans and risk reduction strategies concerning diseases that originate outside the food system typically do not include considerations for protecting food systems but should be a key factor in planning potential response efforts (ortu et al., 2008) . localities can contribute to outbreak preparedness by conducting food system vulnerability assessments using fault tree analysis across a range of emergencies (biehl et al., 2018) . even when food systems are considered in planning exercises, insufficient follow through, lack of resources, or unwillingness to allocate available resources may render such exercises meaningless. policymakers must prioritize action following planning exercises, as emerging infectious disease and food safety events are increasingly likely as food systems become more globalized. corporate concentration of agricultural sectors both horizontally and vertically has resulted in centralizing control of large swaths of the food system among a few companies, reducing the resilience of food system to internal and external shocks (howard, 2017) . these oligopolies have vast lobbying power, making it difficult to enact structural change. positive change at this level will require market incentives and non-governmental accountability systems similar to what is seen in current efforts to combat climate change (heymann et al., 2015) . reliance on food imports also increases vulnerability to food insecurity. an estimated 1/6th of the global population in 2000 were dependent on food imports for their basic dietary needs (fader et al., 2013) , leading to an unequal power dynamic between net-exporters & net-importers and undermining the development of locally appropriate value-chains. at the production level, agri-food policies which support local farmers and smallholders can strengthen food system resiliency by increasing the diversity of local food systems and protecting against economic shock. one example is the uk government department for the environment food and rural affairs' farm diversification grant scheme, which helped farmers in the uk develop a diverse portfolio of income sources (turner et al., 2006) for this reason. support for agricultural diversification among smallholders in lmics can improve food security, reduce poverty, and strengthen resilience to climate change and market instability, resulting in long term increases in productivity (joshi et al., 2007; world bank, 2018) . however, there are several obstacles to farm-level adoption of diversified farming systems, including start-up costs, potential initial productivity losses, lack of access to technical guidance or support, and market disencentives such as commodity crop subsidies and insurance (harvey et al., 2014) . some farm level barriers can be overcome with an institutionally organized systems or landscape approach that incorporates multiple stakeholders to achieve a collective diversification goal. policymakers should work to increase accessibility of diversification tactics, support research to provide further evidence and guidance for diversification, and ensure follow through on these commitments. while the 55 countries in the african union have pledged to enhance financial investment in agriculture, only nine are on track to reach agricultural research spending goals (vilakazi and hendriks, 2019) . at the consumer level, stable access to food during periods of crisis can be ensured by policies that support emergency food access and flexibility within supply chains. the covid-19 outbreak underscores the need for policies to support and improve access to food assistance agencies, which not only supply emergency food but also help those in need access benefits, job training, and medical resources (environmental audit committee house of commons, 2019). food systems have wide and far-reaching impact on health, economy, and society locally and globally, while health issues and our response to them have major impacts on how food systems operate. a sustainable and healthy food system supports fair wages for individuals across the food value chain, provides affordable, nutritious, diets that are culturally acceptable, operates in an environmentally sustainable manner, and is resilient and adaptable. foodborne disease and emerging infectious disease events should naturally decrease as food systems approach these ideals. this vision is far-removed from the current reality but provides a set of priorities through which agri-food policies should be developed. major challenges exist concerning the reorientation of market incentives and food systems standards, heightened accountability, changes in land use, and cooperation between countries and corporations. yet, consumers are increasingly aware of the broader effects of current food systems and are beginning to widely challenge the status quo. the severity of the current covid-19 outbreak and its unusually far-reaching impacts on food systems will hopefully provide the stimulus and opportunity to for both high level decision makers and the wider consumer base to more seriously focus on restructuring our food systems to 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disease control in rice the authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. key: cord-027885-ua8miwes authors: das, sujata; khanna, charu; singh, shalini; nandi, shilpa; verma, reema title: impact of human microbiome on health date: 2020-03-10 journal: microbial diversity, interventions and scope doi: 10.1007/978-981-15-4099-8_20 sha: doc_id: 27885 cord_uid: ua8miwes the human genome in the recent years, by the advent of technological advancements, has emerged as a major prolocutor for reciprocity between the human body and the food consumed. as known, microbiome comprises all the genetic materials within a microbiota and can thereby be also referred to as metagenome of the microbiota. contemporary researches have revealed the influence of microbiome not only on human mind and health status, but also in wide range of disease switching, ranging from cardio-metabolic diseases, allergies and obesities to life-threatening diseases such as cancer. though the complete mechanism of many diseases is yet unclear, research works have revealed that the metabolites, nutrients and microbes can be regarded as the key players for such physiological state. the major approach of this chapter is to enlighten the interrelationship of the microbiome on the human health either in a synergistic or in an antagonistic manner. in the last few decades, immense initiatives have been taken in understanding the role of microbiome on human health. in the present day, either in the field of therapeutic development or medical treatment, the impact of microbiome is especially apparent in the studies of different microbial communities and the human microbiome. in the recent times, 'omics' has provided a significant impetus on all the facets of biological research which has ushered the field to gain in momentum. the study, which is contemporarily popularised as study of 'human microbiome', is an outcome of the advancement in the field of genomics and other fields of microbiology, which has given the classical microbiology a new outlook and perspective. thereby, the attention was driven and directed towards the genomics, which was the major objective of the human microbiome project (hmp) (turnbough and wilson 2007) . the hmp was used for the characterisation of all the microbial communities living in the human body, eventually switching the interest towards, not only, the type of microbes existing in the human body but also to the role and activity they perform both in the case of a healthy and diseased individual. since 2003, after the publication of the first human genome (chial 2008) , the biomedical research on microbiome has obtained a significant scientific attention. there has been an immense leap from the culture-based surveys of various tissues or organs, for example, of gut and oral cavity, to molecular profiling of the microbial communities and their biochemical products like enzymes, proteins, and amino acids in all the different ecological niches of the human body (eckburg et al. 2005; gill et al. 2006; costello et al. 2009 ) for this subject. this chapter attempts to put an insight into the distribution and diversification of human microbiome, the behaviour of human microbiome on the human health and microbiome as a paradigm for the future nutritional and medicinal strategies for human benefits. over 100 trillion microbes are estimated to be residing both inside and over the surface of humans, possessing genome which is approximately 150 times to that of the entire human being ). this includes microbes of different families such as bacteria, fungi, archaea and viruses, contributing about eight million unique protein-coding genes as compared to the human genome, which comprises only around 22,000 protein-coding genes (tomayko et al. 2013) . this variation and the nature of the organism, specific to the specific anatomic site of the body, is a consequence of their specific growth requirement. the other determinants for such growth include coevolution of microorganism, their extensive interaction amongst each other and with the human host, variation in the composition and function with respect to the population, human life span and inconsistency of the body sites, ecologic condition, difference in the oxygen tension, airway luminal temperature, mechanism of muco-ciliary clearance, sex, genetics and socio-economic status. hence, there has been a development of the concept of interdependence, in variety of physiologic, immunologic and metabolic processes, which ultimately determines the microbiome community in a particular site of the human body system. amongst all the human systemic microbiome, the gut microbiome, composed of the genetic material of the microorganisms in the gut, occupies a very essential and special position. they play an important role in various physiological processes like metabolism, immunity development and nourishment supply. the genotype and the immune system of the host have been shown to contribute towards the development of gut microbiota (thaiss et al. 2016) . in response to environmental factors, such as diet, pathogens and xenobiotic substances, a crosstalk occurs between the human immune system and the microbiome. for instance, the myeloid cells, epithelial layer and the innate lymphoid cells, part of the immune system, crosstalks with the gut microbiota for which the microbiome composition, host physiology and disease susceptibility are the main consequences of such crosstalks and feedback loops between them. along with the bacterial community, like firmicutes and bacteroidetes species (table 20 .1), these interactions are also contributed by the other microbiota like fungi (pothoulakis 2009 ), archaea and viruses (breitbart et al. 2003) . though the understanding of the immunological relationship between the fungi and archaea is limited currently, the trans-kingdom commensalism is expected to be formed from infancy (latuga et al. 2011) . the principal constituents are the bacteriome, virome and mycobiome, whose strong interdependence maintains the functionality of the gut microbiota, if imbalanced may also affect the other systems in various ways. since the time of birth of an individual, when the sterile gut of the neonate gets exposed to the biota of mother's vagina during the vaginal delivery or hospital microbiota in case of caesarean section (which may even include the multidrug-resistant species), the microbes starts their colonisation with an eventual change by the age of 3-5 years, by when an individual starts resembling bacterial community to that of an adult both structurally and functionally (bull and plummer 2014) . in adults, the composition of gut microbiota is uneven throughout the length of the gut. as compared to small intestine, which is rich in the species related to phylum firmicutes, colon on the contrary exhibits the presence of members of phylum bacteroidetes. the microbiome of lumen and that attached to the epithelial lining even show differences. the stool sample exhibited the presence of bacteroides, streptococcus, ruminococcus, lactobacillus, enterococcus, bifidobacterium and clostridium which presented the lumen community while on the mucous layer detected the presence of enterococcus, lactobacillus and clostridium (swidsinski et al. 2005) . during the initiation of hmp, the airways and lungs were exempted from the study, believing these parts to be sterile in nature (moffatt and cookson 2017) . this fact was always acceptable because of the negative results yielded by the various standard microbiological culture tests of the healthy individuals (faner et al. 2017) . its study was also a challenge owing to the difficulty in assessing the lower tract without the invasive techniques such as bronchoscopy. hence, there has been a delay in the systemic microbiome assay until the first study indicating the similarity of bacterial density of this part with the upper small bowel of human body was reported (man et al. 2017 ). this has been made possible due to the advances in molecular techniques independent of culture practices (faner et al. 2017 ). human respiratory system is divided into upper respiratory tract (urt) and lower respiratory tract (lrt) with alveoli, present in the lrt, acquiring the surface area nearly 70 m 2 (man et al. 2017) . this complete tract is occupied by the niche-specific microbiota with higher density dwelling in urt. the development of microbiota has been thought to effect on the morphological genesis of this system (man et al. 2017) . during the first hours of a healthy neonate, non-specific microbes, presumed of maternal origin has been detected. abundance of staphylococcus spp. in the first week, in the urt due to niche specification, has also been detected, which is then occupied by the corynebacterium spp., dominated by the dolosigranulum spp. the moraxella species has its dominance at the age of 4-6 months. the individuals with the possession of such microbiota have been found to possess stable microbiome community along with better airway health (morris et al. 2013; segal et al. 2013 ) this healthy development is prone to disturbance under certain conditions such as usage of antibiotics, oxygen tension, temperature and ph, presence of other siblings, seasonal variations, vaccinations, exposure to smoke and host genetics (man et al. 2017) . attempt to observe the diversity of flora in urt and lrt is well observed (table 20 .1). studies using species specific molecular techniques have declared that the diseasefree arteries and veins are microbe free in nature (jin et al. 2019; sobol 2014 ). very few studies do report the presence of bacterial and viral genome in some vessels of healthy subjects. amongst the microbes, helicobacter pylori and herpes simplex virus are the most prevalent followed by cytomegalovirus, chlamydia pneumoniae, mycoplasma pneumoniae and epstein barr virus and were also detected in healthy aorta, saphenous veins and internal mammary arteries (clifford and hoffman 2015) . studies using species-specific molecular techniques have declared that the diseasefree arteries and veins are microbe free in nature (jin et al. 2019; sobol 2014 ). very few studies do report the presence of bacterial and viral genome in some vessels of healthy subjects. amongst the microbes, helicobacter pylori and herpes simplex virus are the most prevalent followed by cytomegalovirus, chlamydia pneumoniae, mycoplasma pneumoniae and epstein barr virus and were also detected in healthy aorta, saphenous veins and internal mammary arteries (clifford and hoffman 2015) . the human urinary tract along with urine was earlier considered to be 'sterile', until the modern-day research, which has confirmed the presence of microbes in this system, significantly in healthy individuals. the advances in techniques such as 16 s rrna sequencing have considerably helped in revealing the normal microbiota of the human body system. after analysis of the urine, the most common genera reported are lactobacillus (more in women) and streptococcus (more in men), both of which, along with few other groups, deliver a protective role in this system against different pathogens. various bacterial taxa, as illustrated (table 20 .1), had been recognised in healthy adults, but some specific genera such as saccharofermentans, proteiniphilum, parvimonas and jonquetella were found in persons with age more than 70 years. the variation of urinary microbiome related to age and sex may be due to differences in voiding habits, hygiene, urinary metabolites, anatomic structures, hormonal variation and histology. even the vaginal microbiome at premenstrual phase, reproductive age and post-menopausal phase exhibits variation (aragón et al. 2018 ). central nervous system is considered to be one of the most immune privileged systems because of its closed compartmentalisation. it is isolated by physical barriers like blood-brain barriers and blood-cerebrospinal fluid barriers, from the circulatory system (obermeier et al. 2013; ransohoff and engelhardt 2012) . thus, lack of lymphatic drainage, expression of major histocompatibility complex by the parenchymal cells and anti-inflammatory environment of the central nervous system accounts for such privileged status of seclusion from the microbiota (berer and krishnamoorthy 2014) . though, in our body, there exists a bidirectional communication system, involving hormonal, immunological and neural signalling pathways, between the brain and the gut, accessed by the microbial flora of the intestine and certain metabolites, also known as the gut-brain axis. it is estimated that nearly 90% of serotonin (5-ht), a neurotransmitter, is produced in the intestine under the influence of gut microbiota, and the activation of its receptors in the enteric nervous system is responsible for the neuroprotection and adult neurogenesis in the mouse model (de vadder et al. 2018 ). the largest organ forming the external interface of the human body to the environment is the skin. nearly 1.5-2.0 m 2 of the skin covers an average human with 2-3 mm depth. three tissue layers are found in the skin: epidermis, dermis and hypodermis. epidermis is colonised by millions of the microbes such as bacteria, fungi, arthropods and even viruses. it acts as the physical, anatomical and immunological barrier to various pathogens extending protection of the body, unless this barrier is broken or there is an imbalance between commensal and pathogenic organisms resulting to cutaneous or systemic diseases. their acidic ph, continuous shedding of epidermal cells, hydrophobic nature, salinity and association with the antimicrobial compounds make them an efficient barrier (ross et al. 2017) . though microbes do exist on them in spite of the above characteristics, the number of microbes inhabiting the skin ranges from one million to about one billion in each cm 2 . although, human skin is inhabited by quite diverse microflora, but most commonly found bacterial phyla includes proteobacteria, corynebacteria, propionibacteria, bacteroidetes, firmicutes and staphylococcus spp. amongst fungi, malassezia spp., cryptococcus spp., epiciccum spp., aspergillus spp. and rhodotorula spp. are most commonly found. the factors that affect the prevalence and dominance of community on the skin include biological sex, skin depth, skin location (skin thickness, folds, density of hairs), age, health, geographical location, ethnicity, use of lotions, soaps, cosmetics, and antibiotics and hygiene practices. as humans are known to have a constant symbiosis with microorganisms, the human microbial community, inhabiting the various system exhibits their influence on them. there are nearly 100 trillion symbiotic microorganisms that exist on and within the human body and have shown to play very important roles both in human health and disease causation. the influence of this microbiome on various systems is as follows: amongst all the systems, the highest and heterogeneous microbial density resides in colon and is mostly codependent in nature and present along both longitudinal (proximal to distal) and axial (mucosal to lumen) gradients of the gastrointestinal (gi) tract. the microbiome has been reported to aid in food digestion, vitamin biosynthesis, bile acid biotransformation, building of innate immunity, maintenance of intestinal barrier (valdes et al. 2018) , etc. thus, gut is an "essential organ", carrying approximately 150 times more genes than are found in the entire human genome ) (fig. 20.1 ). microbial inhabitants within the host often contribute to metabolism such as: • bile salt metabolism • synthesis of essential and non-essential amino acids • replication of virulence factors in enteric pathogen • pro-drug transformation into active drugs and • metabolism of xenobiotic compounds • antibiotics by chemical transformation (sarkar et al. 2018) gut microbiota and host interaction result in the secretion of a series of metabolites including trimethylamine-n-oxide (tmao); short-chain fatty acid (scfa) such as acetate and butyrate; secondary bile acid; and indoxyl sulphates that activate numerous signalling pathways affecting host physiological processes (jin et al. 2019 ). when a child is born, the immune system at birth is under a relative state of immaturity. the developing immune system is characterised by a skewed t-and b-cell development and a blunted inflammatory cytokine production with respect to the regulatory responses. the consequence of such an underdeveloped immune system is high susceptibility to infections. thereby, the regulatory environment ensures the establishment of the microbiota which ultimately helps in immune regulation and limits the mucosal inflammation following their colonisation (elahi et al. 2013) . many intestinal bacteria also prevent the colonisation of pathogen by producing antimicrobial substances such as bacteriocin (inhibit pathogen growth), by competing for nutrition and attachment sites. this act is termed as barrier/competitive(collado et al. 2010 ). exposure to intestinal bacteria has also been found to prevent certain allergic responses in the hosts. thereby, the commensals, specifically the bacterial species and the products or metabolites derived from them, are considered as an intrinsic regulator of all the immune responses for the upliftment and restoration of human meta-organism's health (belkaid and hand 2014) . gut bacteria are intrinsically linked with the health of our entire body. however, a change in gut microbiota composition, termed as dysbiosis, can result in enhanced susceptibility of the host towards pathology. dysbiosis can cause various diseases such as inflammatory bowel disease (ibd) and irritable bowel syndrome (ibs), chronic kidney disease (ckd), cardiovascular disease (cvd), atherosclerosis, obesity, autism, allergy, asthma, hypertension, coronary artery disease, and heart failure (tang and hazen 2017; backhed, et al., 2012) . (ibd) ibs and ibd are related to bowel disorder with signs and symptoms of abdominal cramping, pain and bloating associated with features of disordered defecation in ibs and ongoing inflammation of all part of gi tract in ibd. although ibs is a multifactorial disease (soares 2014) , intestinal dysbiosis has also been found associated with this disease by facilitating adhesion of enteric pathogens. ibd includes crohn's disease (cd) and ulcerative colitis (uc). gut microbiota has been implicated to have roles in ibd pathogenesis, and the usage of antibiotics may help in reducing inflammation or prevented the same in murine models of disease and in patients. intestinal dysbiosis is most often accompanied by defective intestinal barrier function, which promotes the production of bacterial by-products that are rapidly absorbed and retains in intestinal lumen. when increased absorption is coupled with reduced clearance of these substances by the kidneys, levels of gut derived toxins rise in circulation and may potentiate vascular calcification, atherosclerosis and adverse cardiovascular functioning, which are the clinical conditions in the later stage of ckd. numerous epidemiologic studies have shown a relationship between gut-derived vascular toxins and cardiovascular events in patient with ckd (valdes et al. 2018 ). metabolic origin of traditional cvd risk factors such as obesity, dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance indicates close linkage between the gut microbiome and cvd. recent studies have implicated that atherosclerosis has generated the largest amount of data in association with gut microbiome. according to a hypothesis, gut microbiota metabolites elicit inflammatory cascade by translocating into bloodstream and promote atherosclerosis. oral bacteria causing oral cavities have also been found in atherosclerosis plaque (clifford and hoffman 2015) . in many cvds, heart failure is considered as end stage with a higher rate of morbidity and mortality (jin et al. 2019) . low intestinal perfusion and disruption of intestinal barrier have been reported as reasons for reduced cardiac output and blood redistribution. the translocation of microbiota and endotoxins into blood circulation leads to an aggravated systemic inflammation that further can lead to increased chances of heart failure (peng et al. 2018) . various studies suggested the direct and indirect link between gut microbiota and the development of hypertension (jin et al. 2019) . it is a complex clinical condition and can be influenced by number of factors. it is considered as modifiable risk factor for cvd. in some studies, prevotella, faecalibacterium, klebsiella, clostridium and streptococcus are found in abundance in hypertensive patients, indicating a close association of host microflora to such a clinical condition. other studies demonstrated that reduction in gut microbial diversity, short-chain fatty acid (scfa)-producing bacteria and increase in sympathetic drive to the gut and lactic acid producing bacteria, respectively, have direct role in blood pressure regulation. thus, it can be concluded that blood pressure is closely linked to diversity, richness and evenness of microbiome living in the gut and the improved gut microbiota may be a target for future therapies for hypertension (peng et al. 2018 ). the gut-brain axis plays a major role in central nervous system (cns) and intestinal and immune system functioning, as mentioned earlier. gut-brain axis is the bidirectional biochemical signalling between gi and cns activities, integrating efferent and afferent neural, endocrine, nutrient and immunological signals, providing gut microbiota and its derived metabolites a route to access the brain (bull and plummer 2014; joscelyn and kasper 2014). wang and kasper illustrated that this bidirectional communication system enables brain to command gi functions such as metabolism, peristalsis, mucin production and other immunological functions. gut microbiota is also found to have impact on hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (hpa) axis, thus playing a role in body's stress response teitelbaum et al. 2008 ). the gut microbiota has also been shown to synthesise neurotransmitters and neuromodulators. various neurotransmitters produced by bacterial species are presented in table 20 .2. those released neurotransmitter then stimulates epithelial cells to synthesise modulators within the enteric nervous system (ens) or directly acting on primary afferent axons (mcvey neufeld et al. 2013) . moreover, it has been shown that ens plays a major role in fundamental gastrointestinal physiological functions such as motility, fluid secretions and blood flow. furthermore, numerous studies have revealed the correlation between microbiome, microbiota derived products, antibiotics, prebiotics and probiotics and cns (wang and kasper 2014) . anxiety and stress, characteristic mood disorders, associated with nervous, endocrinal and immunological system have also been shown to have an association with the gut microbiota. stressors such as chemical, biological or any environmental stimuli can act as an active component to trigger the anxiety and stress response which ultimately activates the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (hpa) axis. intestinal dysbiosis and gut pathogens have thereby been shown to cause stress and anxiety. animal models have represented to ameliorate these disorders by using probiotic formulations (messaoudi et al. 2011) . various output and input of role of gut microbiota is depicted in fig. 20 .2. the analysis of microbiome of human body shows both the pathogenic as well as beneficial microbial network (ozturk et al. 2017 ). customizable medicine based on an individual's microbiome is an excellent approach for therapeutic choices based either on exercises or/and medications which considers the genetic makeup of an individual, their health condition and quality of life (hasani-ranjbar and larijani 2017). human genomes are about 99.9% indistinguishable to one another; the generally steady human gene pool does not completely clarify all the phenotypic varieties amongst people. on the other hand, the bacterial biological system, living in each human body, that contributes multiple times larger number of qualities than the human genome, could be significantly unique in relation to an individual. therefore, the human microbiome can be regarded as the true cause of numerous responses that can influence the structure and plenitude of microorganism (hasani-ranjbar and larijani 2017) in the human body. recently various studies have shown that intestinal microbiota is fundamentally associated with various therapeutics as in cardiovascular diseases, cancer, etc. these include narrow spectrum antibiotics along with probiotics, prebiotics and synbiotics, faecal microbiota transplantation, nutritional modulators, immune modulators and phage therapy. in the usa and europe, jointly, in the year 2015, because of the onset of antibiotic resistance amongst pathogens, around 50,000 deaths were witnessed, which was projected to increase to a score of around ten million deaths per year worldwide by 2050 (langdon et al. 2016 ). in addition to the development of resistance, the usage of antibiotics has been reported to disrupt the ecology of the human microbiome. whereby, a dysbiotic microbiome loses the capability to perform vital functions such as nutrient supply, production of vitamin, and defence against the pathogens; thereby it leads to an eventual impairment of the metabolic, immunological and developmental system of the host. for an instance, drug-induced modification of the gut microflora can influence a group of foxp3 + treg cells that control demyelination in exploratory autoimmune encephalomyelitis (eae) (ochoa-repáraz et al. 2010) . another study reflects the antigens produced by bacteroides fragilis (capsule polysaccharide) can protect against eae (cns demyelination) and further in human multiple sclerosis (ochoa-repáraz et al. 2011) . similarly, the effects of common antimicrobial treatments on the gut microbiota have been illustrated in table 20 .3. probiotics are characterised as live microorganisms which are not part of the human host microbiome yet give a medical advantage to the host when administered or directed in sufficient quantity. probiotics have been extensively studied in recent years as it imparts various health benefits by the metabolites it produces in the relief from certain intestinal disorders as well as controlling eae. clinical trials have been able to demonstrate that certain cardio metabolic disorders (cmd), such as type 2 diabetes mellitus (t2d), dyslipidaemia and arterial hypertension, as well as chronic kidney diseases (ckd) can be managed by the ingestion of probiotics (neto et al. 2018) . saccharomyces boulardii has been shown to exert antiinflammatory effect which helps to control inflammation related to the dysbiosis in lumen (rodríguez-nogales et al. 2018) . various metabolites produced by microorganisms present in the host and its associated health benefits are discussed in table 20 .4. prebiotics are those food components that cannot be digested by human body but can be selectively digested by the members of probiotics, and thereby serves as a food fibre for probiotics. recent studies have demonstrated that the use of prebiotics can result in enhancing the ecological performance of the gut microbiota, thus promoting a much more beneficial community (vandeputte et al. 2017) . this conceptualizes that the human microbiota can be enhanced, stabilised and shifted by feeding with certain specific prebiotics such as carbohydrates. however, characterisation of the relationship between the prebiotic and probiotic is still a challenge. the point when the idea of synbiotic was first presented, two setups were proposed: first, where the prebiotic and probiotic segments were independent, each being in charge of a kamal et al. (2019) specific impact or medical advantage, and second, a symbiotic segment, where the probiotic was explicitly structured with a prebiotic substrate that would synergistically support the intensity, survival or metabolic movement of a related probiotic strain in the ecology of gastrointestinal system (krumbeck et al. 2016 ). as of late, two novel methodologies have been proposed for creating such synergistic synbiotics, both being dependent on their ecological function and wellness. first, the in vivo strategy which depends upon the determination and isolation of probiotic strain that would increase in number when a certain population of participants are administered with the specific prebiotic component (krumbeck et al. 2015) . second, called as a multi-taxon insertion, depending on sequencing, based on the identification of genes, would examine the fitness of probiotic strain in relation to the type of prebiotic administered by the usage of libraries of transposon mutants . a list of prebiotics with their probiotic components are given in table 20 .5. sometimes the mere usage of antibiotics is insufficient to treat few diseases and rather requires urgent alternatives to manage the severity of the clinical condition. this has led to the introduction of transplantation of the faecal microbiota. the process involves the separation and delivery of the faecal microbiota from stool of healthy donor to the gastrointestinal tract of the receiver patient, thereby enabling an efficient cure by normalising the microbiota composition. recent investigations have explained the mechanism behind the faecal microbiota transplantation (fmt), which has been used to treat clostridium difficile infection (cdi) for the restoration of the gut microbiome to gain the ability to inhibit clostridium difficile indirectly by competing for nutrients. the faecal microbiota also prevents the colonisation by unwanted microorganism by the activation of immune system as well as by direct release of certain antimicrobial components and other metabolites that helps in the inhibition of vegetative and as well as the sporulated disease-causing organism (khoruts and sadowsky 2016) . table 20 .6 shows the list of diseases and infections which can be treated by using fmt. intake of dietary medications for a long period of time impacts the structure and function of microbiome of the human body. the change in the availability of nutritional content of the diet causes corresponding alteration of the human microbiome. recent findings have suggested that depending upon the intake of dietary, the microbiome richness diversifies. the lower is the genetic richness of microbiome; the lower will be the immune status of the person, relating to abnormal metabolic function and poor anti-inflammatory activity (cotillard et al. 2013; le chatelier et al. 2013 ). the diet patterns may even contribute in managing different diseases (table 20 .7) by way of microbiome. microbiome-based approaches involving antibiotics, probiotics, prebiotics and synbiotics, faecal microbiota transplantation and nutritional modulators correlate directly with the alteration of immune status of an individual focusing on the innate immunity. thereby, the human microbiome is being affected for benefits with the change in immune status. until now, there are inadequate information in this method; however, treatment of inflammatory diseases using steroids is in abundance. intestinal innate and acquired immunity as well as systemic acquired immunity involves various mechanisms for the control of gut microbiome. some of them include change in barrier function, expression of leptin, molecule β, human leukocyte antigen (hla) class i and class ii loci, activation of toll-like receptors, natural killer cells, cd4+ cells and foxp3+ as well as the production of antimicrobial competition for nutrients; direct suppression by antimicrobial peptides; bile-acid-mediated inhibition of spore germination and vegetative growth; activation of immune-mediated colonisation resistance khoruts and sadowsky (2016) ulcerative colitis (uc) increasing the production of short-chain fatty acids, (butyrate); inhibitingth1 differentiation, activity of t cells, leukocyte adhesion; production of inflammatory factors shen et al. (2018) irritable bowel syndrome (ibs) visceral hypersensitivity; altered barrier function, gastrointestinal motility and the gut-brain axis grover et al. (2014) obesity decrease adiposity; alter metabolic phenotype by increased bacterial diversity marotz and zarrinpar (2016) obesity henning et al. (2018) peptides and α-defensins (ticinesi et al. 2019) for the proper functioning of the gut microbiome. phage therapy involves the introduction of explicit bacteriophages that targets a microorganism which in turn has the ability to generate a beneficial microbiome shift. however, a limitation to this strategy is the simultaneous resistance offered by the microorganism in play which is yet to be proven. till date, none of the phage therapy approaches have been established as an fda-approved drug. recently, scientists are working hard to perform phage based killing of microbes, but it is much more complicated. crispr (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) is one of the approaches to advance the limitations (lemieux 2019). it is a tool derived from prokaryotic immune system empowered to study and modify organisms with ease and efficiency. the system helps to modify the gut genome of gut microorganisms and bacteriophages. this engineered crispr-cas system ultimately can control gene expression and modulate production of metabolite and protein presenting a new approach for the development of drugs that can target the microbiome (table 20 .8). although these interventions are used as medicinal and nutritional strategies and have been clinically experimented for a successful result, more focus and deliberate attempts are being made for the establishment of such casualty in order to define the functional metabolic change. these therapies are yet not so widely utilised due to the requirement of huge amount of money and time. hence, advancement in this field targeting the relation of human microbiome with health and diseases, identification of the composition and activity of microbiome as well as linking it, and most importantly using technical resources such as bioinformatics to incorporate and fill up the loopholes ascertaining to the models is quite difficult. future research based on these directions is a key to solve the problems and hence 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(2018) key: cord-355130-a2jc1g0i authors: shrivastava, paul; stafford smith, mark; o’brien, karen; zsolnai, laszlo title: transforming sustainability science to generate positive social and environmental change globally date: 2020-04-24 journal: one earth doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.04.010 sha: doc_id: 355130 cord_uid: a2jc1g0i despite the decades-long efforts of sustainability science and related policy and action programs, humanity has not gotten closer to global sustainability. with its focus on the natural sciences, sustainability science is not able to contribute sufficiently to the global transition to sustainability. this perspective argues for transforming sustainability science into a transdisciplinary enterprise that can generate positive social and environmental change globally. in such transformation, the social sciences, humanities, and the arts can play an important role to address the complex problems of culture, institutions, and human behavior. to realize a truly integrated sustainability science, we need renewed research and public policies that reshape the research ecosystem of universities, funding agencies, science communications, policymaking, and decision making. sustainability science must also engage with society and creatively employ all available sources of knowledge in favor of creating a sustainable earth. global environmental challenges are now manifesting at a planetary scale in the form of climate change, ocean acidification, biodiversity loss, environmental pollution, deforestation, and land-use change, among many others. these characteristics of the anthropocene era have been driven by accelerating socioeconomic trends, including population growth, various measures of consumption and economic growth, urbanization, telecommunications, and other aspects of globalization. the so-called great acceleration, 1 which started in the 1950s, has been compounded by the rapid development and spread of information technologies and telecommunications. 2 decades of international conferences and reports-beginning with the 1972 report the limits to growth by the club of rome and the united nations (un) conference on the human development in that same year and evolving to the creation of the 17 sustainable development goals (sdgs) by the un general assembly in 2015-have warned of the challenges and risks associated with current development pathways and have fostered the evolution of sustainability science at the global scale ( figure 1 ). science has played a pivotal role in helping society to identify and understand the scope and scale of planetary environmental changes. it has also helped to guide policies and practices that address sustainability challenges from local to global scales. in recent years, global-scale challenges have become a growing concern. the 1990s saw the development of a number of global-change research programs and various environmental science initiatives, such as the world climate research program, the international geosphere biosphere program, diversitas, the international human dimensions program, and some attempted unification in the earth systems science program. sustainability science emerged from the recognition of a need to extend global-change research to seek solutions, which in turn requires multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research. this is slowly moving further from the perceived hegemony of the disciplinary expert toward the transdisciplinary co-design and co-production of research. international science coordination and funding approaches have also evolved over the past decades, as promoted by the international science council, the belmont forum, and others. many of the global-change programs merged into future earth in 2013. 3, 4 in 2018, a unified coordination of the natural and social sciences was advanced by the formation of the international science council through the merger of the international science union and the international social sciences council. this year, the transdisciplinary sustainability research & innovation congress 2020 was planned to unite global researchers, industry practitioners, and world leaders to inspire action and promote sustainability transformation. although the event is now postponed because of the coronavirus disease pandemic, its aim of cultivating a space for sustainability scholarship, innovation, collaboration, and action won't be delayed. global-change research reflects a growing demand for research to become more impactful and solution oriented, as spelled out in the future earth vision, 5 which is aimed at a multiscale (from local to planetary) understanding of environmental changes that transcend national boundaries. over the past decade, global-change research has made significant efforts to be more inclusive of science communities from china, russia, africa, and the global south. global-change research has first and foremost promoted a systems approach to environmental problems. 6 this approach has focused on relationships and interactions among the atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and soils and explores how they are influenced by (and influence) human activities. an understanding of human impacts on earth system processes gave rise to the notion of planetary boundaries, 1 the idea of tipping points, 7, 8 and the concept of the anthropocene. these scientific metaphors have been useful in articulating the risks of continuing with business as usual and development as usual. it is fair to say that global sustainability science has contributed significantly to a number of global agreements to address the challenges of the anthropocene, most notably the paris agreement and the un agenda 2030, which were signed in 2015. these universal agreements reflect a global consensus to address climate change and strive for sustainable and balanced social and economic development that promotes the well-being of socio-ecological systems. they also provide a powerful statement of intended direction for humanity, as captured in the un's 17 sdgs. they create an imperative for transformative change in response to global challenges. however, such changes have not been forthcoming at the rate and scale required by global agreements. as a consequence, we continue to see increasing concentrations of co 2 in the atmosphere, biodiversity loss, land degradation, and growing inequalities among people and nations. 9, 10 the great acceleration is generated and sustained by powerful economic mechanisms, including globalization, marketization, and financialization, which are based on the mainstream model of doing business and promoting economic growth. 11 to foster growth and maximize profit, companies and other organizations aggressively appropriate value as much as possible from nature and society and externalize the costs to natural ecosystems and to human communities, including future generations. 12, 13 the mainstream business model drives competition and consumption and guarantees that human and social activities continue to drive the overuse of ecosystems beyond their carrying capacity toward breaching several planetary boundaries. 1 the current economic paradigm has led us to the point where the functioning of our global life-support system is no longer assured. 14 the global economy and functioning earth system are on a collision course that will ultimately have dire consequences for humans and the biosphere; we need an urgent course correction, and current research paradigms are not meeting this challenge. in this perspective, we argue that in order to generate positive social and environmental changes globally, sustainability science must transform into a transdisciplinary enterprise. our modest goal here is to lay out the special research challenges posed by the emerging anthropocene era and exhort sustainability science to address these challenges impactfully. we focus our suggestions primarily on research policy measures that shape the conduct of science and agency of scientists and only secondarily on institutional policy measures. this is not intended to be a broad public-policy discussion on sustainability research. sustainability science needs deep integration of the social sciences, humanities, and the arts with its dominant natural sciences. the focus should be on complex problems of nature, culture, institutions, and human behavior and the co-creation of knowledge with stakeholders. to do this, sustainability science and its stakeholders will need to better understand the funding dynamics and higher levels of research funding. to make sustainability science impactful, we need to modify the current research ecosystems. sustainability science must engage with society (economic, social, and cultural spheres) to extend many successful small-scale seeds for change. the goal of sustainability science is to create a sustainable earth by creatively deploying all available knowledge of humanity. the evolution of what is now known as sustainability science has been important, but clearly it is not yet enough to play a pivotal role in social transformations needed for human preservation in the face of accelerating changes of the anthropocene. we argue that we need to transform our approach to research itself. a number of known attributes of global change currently create not only are these changes fast, but in most instances they are also increasing non-linearly, as described by the great acceleration. the human capacity to respond to these changes has not kept pace. some of the historical drivers of social change, such as generational turnover, have slowed as a result of increasing longevity. consequently, cultural and value changes that influence how humans relate to the environment have to occur within a generation rather than over generations. researchers themselves are challenged to think differently and engage in interand transdisciplinary research processes. however, it takes time to develop common understanding between disciplines and engage across different stakeholder knowledge epistemologies; therefore, integrative research risks lagging behind the changes it is addressing (table 1) . spatial connectivity sustainability policies and practices must be local and context specific, yet they are embedded in larger systems that are increasingly and more rapidly connected. although developments in inter-and transdisciplinary research over the past few decades have delivered much success at local levels in agriculture, development, and other domains, replicating this success across scales and globally is genuinely challenging. transformations of social, economic, and institutional systems must also be negotiated across scales. sustainability science research has not reconciled the gap between global-scale problems and locally based solutions. we still do not know how to scale up solutions in an interconnected world (table 1) . social-ecological systems have always been affected by social and cultural norms, vested interests, and power dynamics. however, in today's globalized system, many social norms have been shaped by market-based capitalism and consumption, and the rates and distributed extent of change mean that managing the dynamics of winners and losers is increasingly challenging. for example, oil profits in one part of the world could finance investments that undermine sustainability interventions in another. at a time when there is a need to build engagement across all levels of society, identifying and transforming the nature of power relationships can be difficult. sustainability science has not fully acknowledged or integrated global power dynamics into understandings of change (table 1) . selective embeddedness of science in society science is extremely specialized and operates within universities and corporations, increasingly fulfilling the mandates of government and corporate funders. science does not reach wide swathes of global society, particularly the communities where challenges of the anthropocene are concentrated. many sectors, especially the informal sector of the economy, are not benefiting from scientific knowledge. the informal sector accounts for up to 20% of global output in developed countries and over 33% in developing countries. 15 according to the international labor organization, two billion women and men make their living in the informal economy, which provides over 50% of non-agricultural employment in africa, latin america, and asia. 16 in africa, the informal economy could account for 50%-80% of the gross domestic product (gdp) and 90% of new jobs. 17 even in sectors where science does influence economic and social decisions, it does not always effectively serve broad public interests. science funding for the public good and commons protection is insufficient to address the massive and expanding problems of the anthropocene (table 1) . above all, the challenges involve culture, society, behavior, and institutions. yet, the current approach to sustainability science still pays insufficient attention to the social and human dimensions, and holistic integrated research remains the exception rather than the norm. sustainability science is still dominated by the natural sciences, and there is grossly less investment in the social sciences, the humanities, and arts than in the ''hard sciences,'' as well as a general underinvestment in research overall. the uptake of research insights from the social sciences and the arts and humanities has been limited to the findings that fit within the existing paradigm. 18 particularly debilitating is the failure to open up to new perspectives and different types of knowledge in the name of keeping science ''objective'' and apolitical. even where efforts have been made to integrate social, human, and natural sciences in transdisciplinary research, these successes are challenged by scale. in a recent review, norströ m et al. 19 identified four key principles for good transdisciplinary co-production of knowledge: the engagement by research should be context based, pluralistic, goal oriented, and interactive. these principles, which draw on a great body of understanding from past transdisciplinary successes, are all challenged by the attributes of the anthropocene. engagement must be context specific, yet it seems to be required at all levels, including globally. it must be pluralistic, yet the diversity of stakeholders even at the local level is immense, and more so for global processes. goal-oriented science is challenging with diverse actors across scales, and making engagement interactive, with feedback loops that promote reflection and learning, requires new thinking at the global level. systems thinking emphasizes that the most powerful leverage points for system change come through modifying the design and intent of the system. 20 paradigms-or the shared thought patterns that influence the way that systems are perceived and designed-are also recognized as a powerful driver of systems change. 21 understanding how to achieve paradigm shifts that influence the goals, values, and behaviors of systems is not the normal purview of the natural sciences. in fact, alternative paradigms are usually dismissed rather than encouraged within research systems. although global assessment initiatives such as the intergovernmental science-policy platform on biodiversity and ecosystem services (ipbes) recognize and include cultural beliefs, values, worldviews, and indigenous and local knowledge, 22 many perspectives from the social sciences and humanities have not been taken seriously in sustainability science. for example, research within feminist political ecology, decolonization studies, and ''new materialism'' offers new thinking on ethical and political challenges. 23, 24 to capture the breadth and depth of global challenges, sustainability science needs to support efforts to recognize multiple perspectives and ways of knowing. 25 this includes developing profoundly holistic views on how natural and cultural systems coevolve. 26 interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research activities in academic institutions are seeking such integration. there have been numerous attempts to encourage transdisciplinary collaboration and team science. 27 in higher-income countries, there is a tradition of collaborative cross-sectoral research, such as the agricultural extension research in the us and that conducted by the cooperative research centres (crcs) in australia. recently, the us national science foundation has encouraged research collaborations across science fields, which it calls ''convergence science,'' by awarding grants for themes such as ''navigating the new arctic.'' global programs such as future earth are developing ''knowledge-action networks'' to promote transdisciplinary research. however, the societal ecosystems in which such initiatives operate do not embrace their logic or provide resources to scale them globally as necessary. current efforts to support integrated and transdisciplinary research do not match the scale of the problem. maintaining the power of conventional, objective science has come at a cost for sustainability science. not only has failure to integrate important insights from the social sciences and environmental humanities limited the perceived ''solution space'' for responding to global challenges, but sustainability science has also failed to engage with the ''how'' of transformative change. it has had limited success in connecting with key stakeholders (policymakers, corporate decision makers, political leaders, and civil society) through a language that they understand. it has also failed to convey not only the sense of urgency underscored by global changes but also the possibilities for responding. currently, research on global environmental change largely speaks to the converted-to those who are influenced by rational arguments and scientific evidence. very little attention has been paid to alternatives that challenge the tenets of conventional science and business as usual. the normative dimension of sustainability science is one area that is often challenging to researchers. the question of which changes are ethical and the ''right ones'' to pursue introduces a normative dimension to science that can also be seen as highly political. however, this is an area where global agreements have provided direction for sustainability in recent years-the sdgs of agenda 2030 clearly articulate normative visions for global sustainability in alignment with providing food, water, and energy to the approximately ten billion people expected to live on earth by 2050, just as the paris agreement clearly states an intent to stay below 2 c warming, and 1.5 c if possible. although they provide a strong statement of goals and intents, both still contain ambiguities around more detailed interpretations relating to different places, levels of governance, and interests, which together can limit their impact for sustainability. to integrate the diversity of interpretations of particular goals, the research system has to open itself up to a wide range of disciplines and epistemologies. many examples of existing research can contribute to a more integrative discourse within sustainability science. however, it is important to consider these different perspectives together rather than as separate boxes or silos. drawing on an integral framework, 28 figure 2 depicts how sustainability science has been largely confined to the domain of ''systems'' science and how less attention has been paid to behavior, culture, and experience. an integral approach to sustainability science includes a more balanced representation of these other three perspectives. below, we highlight some specific examples of research in these other ''quadrants'' to illustrate the potential to broaden the systems-oriented perspective of sustainability science and deepen our understanding of how to respond to environmental change. behavioral change there is still a tendency within sustainability science to draw on the information-deficit model and assume that once individuals ll open access and organizations realize the risks associated with environmental change, they will take action or at least can be manipulated or nudged in that direction. 29 yet, plenty of research in psychology-including research on the relationship between the intrinsic and extrinsic motivation of human actors, i.e., between motivation that is inherent in the task itself and motivation that relies on external rewards or sanctions 30 -shows that human behavior is more complex than this. the latter can result in the crowding-out effect, where external rewards actually reduce the intrinsic motivation of the actors. a crucial result of this mechanism is that people's environmental commitment declines and more environmentally harmful behavior emerges. 31, 32 a key message here is that intrinsic motivation is critical to sustainable behavior within rapidly changing systems. research also describes how mechanisms of moral disengagement enable otherwise considerate people to commit transgressive acts without experiencing personal distress or guilt. in other words, moral control can be selectively disengaged from detrimental conduct through psycho-social mechanisms. 33 selectively activated disengagement strategies (such as moral justification, euphemistic labeling, advantageous comparison, displacement of responsibility, diffusion of responsibility, disregard for or distortion of the consequences, dehumanization, and attribution of blame) are at work in harmful environmental practices of corporations and other economic entities. 34 this points to the need for a more critical engagement with the social structures and systems in which sustainability measures are enacted, as emphasized in social practice theory. 35 cultural change embedding sustainability sciences and practices at a global scale will require a new and evolutionary narrative about hu an integral framework recognizes four perspectives or domains of reality that present different types of knowledge about a subject, in this case sustainability science. global-change research has tended to prioritize the systems domain and put less emphasis on research from the meaning-making, cultural, and behavioral domains. integration does not diminish the systems perspective but rather adds valuable knowledge that can help society meet the sdgs. adapted from wilber. 28 man-environment relationships. research on the power of narratives (language, metaphors, and storytelling) points to the need for new cultural narratives on the journey of humans in the universe across geological time. 36, 37 the current narrative that humans are a special, privileged species destined to dominate over nature is deeply flawed, and it has contributed to a fascination with techno-fixes, such as geoengineering. 38 cultural changes need to embrace research on the power of the arts, aesthetic inquiry, and the humanities to heal the emotional disconnection between humans and nature, which is at the root of our current environmental crisis. the role of artists and art-based practices in achieving sustainability is increasingly being recognized. 39 dutton 40 refers to the art instinct of humans as having survival value across cultures and time. art is ubiquitous in all human communities globally over most of history. communities able to tell better stories and draw better pictures of natural and predatory hazards were able to avoid annihilation more effectively. the rich human legacy of the arts also allows us to connect cognitive understanding to emotional empathy and embodied learning about sustainability. 41 the experiential dimensions of environmental issues are becoming increasingly pronounced through emotions such as hope, grief, anger, and despair. 42 whether and how we identify and respond to environmental problems are also closely tied to the ways that we perceive the world and our place in it. issues such as climate change will be interpreted differently depending on the beliefs, values, and worldviews held by individual or groups. 43 within psychology, meaning making is defined as ''the process of how people construe, understand, or make sense of life events and experiences.'' 44 research in developmental psychology shows that multiple worldviews coexist today and that these can change over generations and within individual lifetimes. acknowledging both differences and developments in perspective-taking capacities and meaning making can provide insights into why people relate to sustainability issues differently and how to connect with a diversity of worldviews. for example, in a study of meaning making among farmers in el salvador as it related to climate-change adaptation, hochachka 44 found differences in the object of awareness, the number of perspectives taken, the complexity of thought, and the scope of time considered in one's understanding of climate change and adaptation. such findings suggest that it could be time for sustainability science to engage with the diversity and dynamics of meaning making rather than to assume that sense making of global challenges is universal and static. in the three research areas described above, one can already see the ways in which researchers are synthesizing knowledge within and across the ''quadrants'' to study the dynamics of sustainability at a deeper level. for example, understanding behavioral changes involves grasping the processes of motivational crowding, understanding socio-cultural changes involves studying the narratives that underpin social values, and understanding experiential responses to environmental change involves indepth research into meaning making. yet, questions remain on how to forge this integrative research more broadly within sustainability science. the integration of different perspectives and domains of knowledge and methodological approaches to research can be enhanced through awareness and education. yet, disciplinary science has privileged cognitive modes of learning, and as disciplines have fragmented, so have the content domains of learning. in highly scientized fields such as medicine, expertise is being isolated and narrowed into increasingly restricted specializations. education for global-change problems needs to be more holistic and contextually anchored through the incorporation of systems and their interconnectedness with culture and experience. education that embraces an integrative discourse recognizes multiple perspectives and the need for critical thinking, reflection, and experience-based learning that leads to action and a sense of agency. 45 one way of integrating different perspectives is through ''action research,'' which focuses on driving change and doing rather than just reaching understanding. 46 otto scharmer and colleagues at the presencing institute created an actionresearch platform at the intersection of science, consciousness, and social change. 47 their ''theory u'' framework and methodology for leading profound innovation proposes that the quality of the results that people create is a function of the quality of awareness, or consciousness, from which the participants in the system operate. the inner shift, from fighting the old to sensing and presencing an emerging future, is at the core of deep leadership work. 48 people are encouraged to expand their thinking from the head to the heart. it is a shift from an ego-system awareness to an eco-system awareness that cares about the well-being of all, including oneself. the presencing institute has reached over 100,000 people in 185 countries to help leaders at any level find new solutions to the disruption that humanity faces. there are a variety of approaches to linking research epistemologies with experiential knowledge systems. the crcs in australia have been a generally successful approach to making public funding contingent on a close working relationship between researchers and stakeholders, the latter of which provide funding input, in a vast array of different topics (https://www. business.gov.au/grants-and-programs/cooperative-research-centres-crc-grants). crc structures increasingly require a formal, even dominant, role for stakeholders in governance; even so, the growing experience suggests that it takes up to 5 years for the diverse partners to really work out a common mission and deliver on the promise of transdisciplinarity to get novel research into action. another promising approach is through greater investment in coordinated, applied, local innovation hubs or sustainable development labs. at community colleges and universities in the us, ''living labs'' are using university operational facilities to create engaged action learning opportunities for students and engaged scholarship opportunities for researchers. 49 examples of integrated and holistic knowledge-creation and action initiatives that embrace more diverse epistemologies are also emerging from social and cultural institutions, as exemplified by the encyclical letter laudato si' by pope francis. 50 the encyclical presents an integral ecology that underscores the human origins of the ecological crisis and proposes fundamental changes in organizing economic life. among the important suggestions put forward by the pope is increased frugality in consumption, and he also acknowledges the intrinsic value of nature. to realize his vision, pope francis initiated the economy of francesco project. 51 this international cooperative platform brings together 5,000 young economists, entrepreneurs, and change makers to co-create and put in place a new economic model in the spirit of integral human development. notwithstanding the examples of integrative approaches described above, sustainability science has not been transformed enough to successfully address the mounting grand challenges faced by society. the challenge of evolving sustainability science cannot be just endogenous and isolated. science is an instrument of society, and it operates within a broader socio-economic, cultural, and technological milieu that sets the operating context for research. at present, the external context is characterized by neoliberal capitalism that sets up competition rather than collaboration; devalues or overlooks social, human, and environmental capitals; fails to see systemic effects; and encourages inequality. 52 science needs to rethink its social relevance and social connections to effectively contribute to the grand challenges of the anthropocene. it must play an active role in the concurrent co-evolution of economies and their underlying cultural assumptions in sustainable directions. within that broader context, scientific institutions and business organizations supporting science would need transformation of their core purpose, administrative processes, and reward systems. sciences would need deep unification across epistemic and disciplinary lines and be willing to play a more active, participatory role in the transformations required for global sustainability in the world at large. at a more synoptic level (see figure 3 ), waddell et al. 53 have argued that research needs to support the establishment of a ''transformation system'' in parallel with the system being transformed (see https://transformationsforum.net/). they outline four strategies that can contribute to transformation: doing change, forcing change, directing change, and co-creating change. according to these authors, most transformations involve a mix of all four types, and research can play a different role in each of these strategies. there is research to be done on actual transformations, as well as on transformation processes, practices, and pathways. although systems thinking emphasizes that addressing design and intent are the strongest leverage points, 20 these ll open access are also the hardest to achieve, particularly when the personal sphere of transformation is considered to be ''external'' or irrelevant to systems change. 43 an integration of experience, culture, behavior, and systems within sustainability science recognizes that the system is not ''out there,'' and it highlights the importance of ''being change,'' i.e., embodying the changes that are considered necessary at all levels, right here and now, and critical to the process of creating an equitable and sustainable future. 54 recognizing that people engage with the future differently is also essential for activating transformations to sustainability. the three horizons framework helps to generate agency and future consciousness by recognizing different ways of addressing uncertainty. this approach distinguishes between incremental and transformative change and emphasizes the need for participatory, reflective, and action-based research. 58 research on how to pre-condition the system for transformation through incremental changes also provides valuable insights on how to create transformative change 56,57 by drawing, for example, on parts of the australian wine industry that were adapting incrementally as opposed to transformationally. 57 when change is seen as a process, incremental changes offer an opportunity to shape the pathways for transformative change, as depicted on the righthand side of figure 3 , and thereby activate easier systems interventions (left side) in order to pre-condition the system for more transformative change in the harder systems characteristics of structure and intent. in practice, this requires a diversity of the intervention strategies (top of cone), as can be seen in examples such as the german energy transition or marriage equality in the us. 55 then arises the question, how can similar insights be applied to sustainability science itself? the cone of increasingly transformative change: systems interventions with increasing leverage (from bottom to top on left side 21, 20 ) as the cone opens out have greater potential to cause transformational change and require a larger application of the four strategies for systems change (top plane 55 ); easier but directed incremental changes can contribute to the transformability of the system (right side). 56, 57 enabling sustainability science action sustainability science is a part of the global system that needs to transform to achieve the sdgs. this means that researchers have to reflect on how science should evolve from the research that is already available on transformations to research that can activate sustainability transformations in the wider world. we note four lessons in this regard, examine incremental changes in research organizations (where a great deal of science is operationalized), and then share some thoughts on how science can drive transformation across society. first, most environmental problems, especially the global ones, are complex, messy, and wicked. too often the problem formulation by researchers is partial and inadequate because they reduce the real-world, multifaceted problems into a single scientific-technical dimension and seek to solve this. instead of providing a precise answer to the wrong question (i.e., committing an ''error of the third kind''), approaches should address the full scope of the problem in question (the scientific-technical, the interpersonal-social, the systemic-ecological, and the existential-spiritual) and then develop some satisficing balance among them. 59 the job of sustainability science is to identify problems and then to produce response options that are substantively adequate and ethically acceptable in broad socio-economic contexts. the same logic can be applied to thinking reflexively about sustainability science itself. second, the growing literature on transitions and transformations in society covers the many dimensions and scales needed for responding to global environmental challenges. [60] [61] [62] much of this research emphasizes small-scale (pilot) experiments as important to demonstrate proof of concepts. it also explores how local success stories can be scaled. 63 we need rapid cross-system learning about the successful ones in a context of changing the institutions and rules (scaling ''up'') and the cultural milieu (scaling ''out'') in which these can be scaled. 64 a growing set of examples and opportunities for scaling can influence how we do sustainability science. 65 we are at a point in time when sustainability science needs to think about how to selectively scale these exemplars massively, including the transformation of science itself. third, as already noted (figure 3) , systems thinking highlights how the strongest leverage points for changing a system are in modifying its design and intent. it is usually much easier to fiddle with parameters and perhaps feedbacks. 20 the resilience literature addresses what makes a system more or less ''transformable.'' 56 it highlights how important well-chosen incremental changes can be to pre-conditioning a system to be more likely to transform in the ''right'' direction when a suitable impetus comes along. therefore, a good strategy for transforming sustainability science (as for transforming the world) should integrate well-directed incremental changes with preparedness to transform at the appropriate opportunity. fourth, enabling sustainability science to be impactful could also involve modifying the identity and role of scientists. historically, the role of scientists has been to be ''objective'' observers of phenomenon, scientific data collectors, unbiased analysts, and accurate recorders and reporters of findings. in a world beset with grand challenges, scientists must also become translators of knowledge, communicators to the public, policymakers, implementors of action, advocates of solutions, and co-designers of the future. they must also listen deeply and maintain reflective, open minds as they engage not just with theory but also with actions that generate a sustainable world. noting these points, we turn to asking how sustainability science could become more pre-adapted to transform (bottom of figure 3 ), as well as actually transform (top of figure 3 ), in order to play a more effective participatory role in global transformations. this must be in the context of the challenges of the anthropocene, i.e., that change is rapid, spatially interconnected, and more than ever influenced by global power dynamics as it is increasingly embedded into all societal systems. acknowledging universities as a key operational venue of sustainability sciences, and knowing how difficult it is to change them, we suggest some modest yet potentially transformative incremental changes. progressing incremental changes in research and public policy scientific research is guided by research policies and public policies, both of which progress through incremental changes. research institutions, especially universities, are being challenged to produce impactful research. it is widely held that good transdisciplinarity (convergence science) is a means to greater and more enduring impact, especially in more complex and value-laden problems, such as many of the sustainability challenges discussed here. such transdisciplinary challenges almost inevitably end up also requiring interdisciplinary approaches. 66, 67 the incremental moves noted above from universities and funders toward promoting more inter-and transdisciplinarity must now be accelerated and empowered in both intent and design. however, there are a number of well-recognized barriers to this-traditional mainstream pressures and incentives (e.g., university tenure based on citation counts and grant dollars or corporate instrumentality of research-delivering products); systemic problems in publication, granting, and training processes (e.g., difficulties in publishing integrated research, funding review processes that favor narrow disciplines, and underresourced student training); and disciplinary research cultures of universities that undermine the commitment to inter-and transdisciplinarity and solving real-world public problems. 68 these barriers need to be systemically addressed. change can be initiated if funders of science articulate more demand for impactful science. funders should also modify the institutional constrains to addressing challenges in the global south, where research funding is woefully inadequate and sustainability problems are also pervasive. universities where researchers are employed should modify tenure and promotion rules and reward systems to actively encourage transdisciplinary, solution-oriented sustainability science. 69 even where inter-and transdisciplinarity are encouraged, we have noted that their co-design and co-production processes can be too slow to meet the rates of change we are experiencing. this could require additional resources to speed up these social processes. many current funding mechanisms and processes do not recognize the need for these additional resources to be effective. however, we must also work harder to recognize where transdisciplinarity is really needed and where it is not. we must obtain better evidence for what works and what doesn't in multistakeholder processes so the resources can be transparently focused where they will have the best effect. a critical impact of science-related public policies occurs via funding priorities. inter-and transdisciplinarity need to be supported by a much greater investment in social science and the humanities if we are to promote an equal partnership across the disciplines. as noted earlier, this investment is miniscule in comparison with that in the natural sciences, even if these also are under-resourced. even if we don't wait for more deep interdisciplinarity, many research areas require greater attention: understanding the deeply social nature of desire and consumption as it expands globally, mapping power dynamics across world consumer demand, exploring how culture change can support global transformations, rethinking the idea of ''progress'' in western cultures, and understanding global social and cultural tipping points and other aspects of mobilizing leverage points for systems change. 8, 70 in addition to this improved investment, there should be a significant effort to improve holistic conceptual models and research practices that draw on multiple traditions. there is potential for increasing resources via government university and private-sector partnering. 71, 72 these could help to resolve epistemological conflicts among the natural sciences, social sciences, humanities, and arts. this is important both interdisciplinarily (e.g., through conceptual models that deeply support the indivisibility and universality of sustainable development as framed by the sdgs) and also transdisciplinarily (e.g., through extended engagement and experimentation with traditional knowledge systems and faith-based systems). another key incremental and ''no-regrets'' step is increased training of researchers. this encompasses building the cohort of early-career researchers comfortable with interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary processes. we should also provide researchers with the skills to engage with stakeholders, convene and facilitate multistakeholder meetings, identify community problems that need to be addressed, and communicate results to the public and to policymakers. effective co-evolution of science and society will also need to address joint training of the next generation of researchers and stakeholders so they will be able work together to meet sustainability challenges. last, we can begin to recognize reflexively that sustainability is itself an open-ended social learning process in which we all need to play a part. the notion of ''being change'' implies the need to ''walk the talk.'' sustainability scientists should be models of sustainable behavior yet also draw attention to the norms and systems that are impediments to sustainability. this means engaging in public debates and contributing to critical and reflective conversations about sustainability. drawing on the experiences described in this paper, we should engage our own organizations to practice sustainability, drive toward net-zero carbon emissions and zero waste, and deliver gender equity and better social outcomes to meet the sdgs in our institutions and communities. 49 driving global transformations to sustainability moving toward a transformational agenda for sustainability science implies not only driving the incremental change in the right direction but also being sufficiently active so that transformational interventions can take place rapidly when the opportunity arises. 73, 74 for this we suggest a number of interlinked approaches. first, building on the incremental efforts already taking place, sustainability science should be pursuing funding and other support for a large network of co-learning innovation hubs 75 in all sorts of contexts. these can be modeled in various ways (e.g., sdgs 10 and cities 76 ). they share the attributes of obtaining close engagement between research and society at a local level in many projects in combination with a strong monitoring, learning, and knowledge-exchange infrastructure that enables success stories to be learned from and scaled rapidly in ways that are sensitive to understanding the contexts in which they will or will not work. 77 this transformation of the ivory-tower model of research not only provides an innovation scaffolding for transformation in society when the opportunity arises but also creates good outcomes at the local level in the meantime. 78, 79 it also engages a much wider portion of society in discussions and learning about sustainability. second, sustainability science needs to engage in an action research mode with the high societal leverage points in such a way that an opportunity for transformation will lead these levers to be pulled in the ''right'' direction. ethically, these should be in areas where the direction is both normatively justified by the framing of goals such as the sdgs and factually justified by research and analysis. examples already noted include dramatic changes to our economic system away from narrow valuation of gdp to broader human well-being, the removal of structural barriers related to the skewed distribution of wealth and consequent inequalities, and a fundamental rejection of simplistic marketbased capitalism, all of which are underpinned by a deep realignment of values to a more collaborative, reflexive, and kinder view of humanity's stewardship of our planetary home. 52 needless to say, such changes would require supporting changes in all areas of institutional and governance design, but these are, of course, past human inventions themselves. the role of sustainability science (and scientists) here would be as activists, as envisaged in waddell et al.'s ''forcing change'' quadrant. 53 third, in addition to playing this activist role, sustainability science needs to have a greater voice in societal processes, such as international un governance discussions or discourse with global religions and traditional societies. the past attitude of scientists has tended to emphasize an autocratic expert identity. the transformed role must be as a partner among equals in seeking the normatively defined outcomes. global-change research has sought this collaborative role, for example, at the un conference on sustainable development (rio+20) and through the intergovernmental panel on climate change and ipbes assessment processes, but in the sdg development process it was still relegated to being one among many lobby groups. the un secretary general's science advisory panel is still seen as a set of experts on the outside of the political process, as are most government scientific advisory boards. this is a failing on both sides of the relationship, and it must be worked on without hubris in policy and other domains. fourth and finally, sustainability science needs to be goal oriented to pursue transformation and accept the challenging roles implied by this. in the absence of clear intentionality in the design of these systems, science is dragged along by the dominant socio-economic forces that themselves should be the subject of change. sustainability science should examine and prepare for its role in all the complementary transformation strategies noted by waddell et al. 53 -understanding when to be an activist and when to partner and being ready to distribute these tasks in a credible way. the community of researchers and their co-design partners also need to accept the goal of transforming themselves to help enable societal transformation in order to meet the sdgs and thereby set the direction for all the above points. maintaining transparency and accepting open debate while seeking sufficient consensus to move forward rapidly to achieve global sustainability and human well-being will be the hardest part of the balancing act. it is difficult to reach final conclusions to the broad critique and transformational vision for sustainability science as explored in this paper. we acknowledge that the realization of this vision could take time, yet the current global situation is challenging assumptions about incremental and transformational change. now is the opportunity for sustainability science to engage and coevolve with the underlying socio-economic roots of environmental changes. can the various branches of science afford to remain at epistemological odds with each other? can research that is driven by funding needs and competition continue to serve private corporate interests rather than the public good? research has not sufficiently emphasized how the most pressing environmental problems are caused and conditioned by social, cultural, economic, and business activities based on individualistic, competitive, profit-seeking models of economics and finance. if there has ever been a time to explore paradigm shifts that support an equitable and sustainable world, this is it. in this article, we have offered some suggestions for moving sustainability science forward on its evolutionary path. profoundly, on this path, the interlinked nature of science and society means that an overall societal commitment to sustainability (as articulated in the un agenda 2030) is a prerequisite for transforming science and society toward sustainability. for this to happen, macroeconomies would need to be designed for human and biosphere well-being rather than for financial economic growth. 80, 81 cultural values to support this economic transition would be based on a more eco-centric vision of life and organizations. [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] transformations like these require a different, more impactful version of sustainability science. the research system of sustainability science itself needs to evolve rather than just seek to change everything else. this means that sustainability scientists and policymakers have to be more reflexive and challenge their own limiting assumptions related to global change. global sustainability research and practices strive to provide adequate food, water, energy, income, education, resilience, voice, jobs, health, and gender and social equity for all in an ecologically safe operating space for humanity. 88 this will require weaving together models of economic growth with models of ecosystem changes and managing winners and losers and the related changes in power dynamics. it will also require addressing the structural economic barriers that have emerged over the past century. the most important of these is wealth and income inequality. 89 currently, 50% of wealth is owned by less than 1% of the world population. two billion people still consume under $2 per day and aspire to increase it. growing inequality makes ''economic growth'' ineffective at addressing the needs of vulnerable sections of society by concentrating wealth with the rich. the co-evolution of sustainability science and sustainable societies implies increasing consumption of some and decreasing consumption of others without degrading ecosystems. the research ecosystem of universities, funding agencies, policymakers, and decision makers needs to be modified in other ways. science operations are different in each country, and there is no one-size-fits-all solution. some general actions for consideration include the following: d universities explicitly prioritize impactful research on environmental grand challenges. d universities adjust their research productivity, measurement methods, and reward systems to beyond academic measures (publications, citations, and grant dollars) to include the impact on social and sustainable development metrics. d funding agencies make more stringent and concrete demands that research should have an impact on sustainability (via the sdgs) in communities. d science communication with policymakers and with the public should be made a priority. many global environmental changes are being addressed outside academia through citizen activism, non-governmental organizations, and social movements. sustainability science could be leading some of these activities instead of merely studying or observing them. however, in order to take such leadership, researchers will need to acknowledge that science is not just a neutral objective pursuit of knowledge when it comes to sustainability. by bringing in reflexivity, values, and ethics, they can justify participation in structural and systemic changes that would produce an equitable and thriving world. scientific pursuit of knowledge involves much more than constructing accurate and analytically powerful representations of the world. knowledge should inspire people to both reflect and act. to change society for the better, we need to creatively activate and employ all available sources of human knowledge in favor of creating an equitable and sustainable earth. sustainability. planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet social acceleration. a new theory of modernity environment and development. earth system science for global sustainability: grand challenges future earth 2025 vision sets the framework for the programme's contribution to global sustainable development global change and the earth system climate tipping points -too risky to bet against tipping positive change advancing sustainability science for the sdgs the failure of business ethics the corporation: the pathological pursuit of profit and power globalization and self-regulation. the crucial role that corporate codes of conduct play in global business trajectories of the earth system in the anthropocene informal economy and the world bank women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture raising productivity and reducing risks of household enterprises: diagnostic methodology framework the misallocation of climate research funding principles for knowledge co-production in sustainability research leverage points for sustainability transformation leverage points: places to intervene in a system the ipbes conceptual framework-connecting nature and people new materialisms: ontology, agency, and politics introducing new feminist political ecologies the greening of technology and models of innovation the archipelago of social ecology and the island of the vienna school research collaboration and team science: a state-of-the-art review and agenda a brief history of everything communicating climate change: closing the science-action gap in the oxford handbook of climate change and society the ''what'' and ''why'' of goal pursuits: human needs and the self-determination of behavior not just for the money the moral economy. why good incentives are no substitute for good citizens moral disengagement. how people do harm and live with themselves (macmillan) corporate transgressions through moral disengagement the dynamics of social practice: everyday life and how it changes (sage) rhetorics, literacies, and narratives of sustainability the dream of the earth earthmasters: the dawn of the age of climate engineering restoring our senses, restoring the earth. fostering imaginative capacities through the arts for envisioning climate transformations hand / heart / head aesthetic practice pedagogy for deep sustainability learning hope and grief in the anthropocene: re-conceptualising human-nature relations (routledge) is the 1.5 c target possible? exploring the three spheres of transformation on matryoshkas and meaning-making: understanding the plasticity of climate change climate and society. transforming the future the sage handbook of action research (sage) theory u: leading from the future as it emerges the campus as a living laboratory: using the built environment to revitalize college education (aacc seed center) laudato si': on care for our common home (vatican) the economy of francesco come on! capitalism, short-termism large system change: an emerging field of transformation and transitions radical transformational leadership: strategic action for change agents four strategies for large systems change resilience thinking: integrating resilience, adaptability and transformability informing adaptation responses to climate change through theories of transformation three horizons: a pathways practice for transformation smart thinking for crazy times: the art of solving the right problems the multi-level perspective on sustainability transitions: responses to seven criticisms societal transformation in response to global environmental change: a review of emerging concepts transformation in a changing climate: a research agenda scaling out, scaling up, scaling deep: strategies of non-profits in advancing systemic social innovation emerging new civilization initiative (enci): emergence from emergency bright spots: seeds of a good anthropocene new organizations, old cultures: strategy and implementation of interdisciplinary programs crcs and transdisciplinary research: what are the implications for science? bridging barriers to advance global sustainability positive tipping points in a rapidly warming world universities and the global knowledge economy: a triple helix of university-industry-government relations the new production of knowledge: the dynamics of science and research in contemporary societies (sage) sustainability transitions: an emerging field of research and its prospects innovation studies and sustainability transitions: the allure of the multi-level perspective and its challenges social innovation lab guide sustainable cities and regions (future earth australia and australian academy of sciences) eco-innovation and sustainability management (routledge) managing innovation for sustainability: the challenge of integration and scale managing innovation for sustainability a finer future: creating an economy in service to life prosperity without growth. economics for a finite planet (routledge) towards a steady-state economy (uk sustainable development commission) for the common good: redirecting the economy toward community, the environment, and a sustainable future ecological economics for the anthropocene stewarding sustainability transformations. an emerging theory and practice of sdg implementation ecocentric management for a risk society enlivenment (boll foundation) doughnut economics: seven ways to think like a 21st-century economist capital in the twentieth century key: cord-024329-r8mi42fu authors: tarasiev, andrey; filippova, margarita; aksyonov, konstantin; aksyonova, olga; antonova, anna title: using of open-source technologies for the design and development of a speech processing system based on stemming methods date: 2020-05-05 journal: open source systems doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-47240-5_10 sha: doc_id: 24329 cord_uid: r8mi42fu this article discusses the idea of developing an intelligent and customizable automated system for real-time text and voice dialogs with the user. this system can be used for almost any subject area, for example, to create an automated robot a call center operator or smart chat bots, assistants, and so on. this article presents the developed flexible architecture of the proposed system. the system has many independent submodules. these modules work as interacting microservices and use several speech recognition schemes, including a decision support submodule, third-party speech recognition systems and a post-processing subsystem. in this paper, the post-processing module of the recognized text is presented in detail on the example of russian and english dictionary models. the proposed submodule also uses several processing steps, including the use of various stemming methods, the use of word stop-lists or other lexical structures, the use of stochastic keyword ranking using a weight table, etc. at a present day technologies related to automated control processing systems are rapidly developing. as a part of these modern trends in the development of information technology the creation of effective and technologically advanced solutions for organizing the processing of incoming requests is required. data processing technologies are progressively evolving, with more and more systems replacing human resources every day. automation and the creation of information systems are at the moment the most promising areas of activity of modern society. one of the reasons for the active development of these areas is that automation is the basis for a fundamental change in management processes that play an important role in the activities of companies. thus, there is a need to use a control system, whose operation is aimed at maintaining and improving the operation of the all business processes at all. as an important part of this area an automation of call centers working process require the help of a control device (complex of means for collecting, processing, transmitting information, and generating control signals or commands). the module of speech recognition in this system uses the two most developed at the moment existing solutions yandexspeechkit and googlespeech api. but integration with these third-party services and other related solutions can't provide complete accordance with system requirements including features, adequate recognition quality, scalability, flexibility and so on. as previous part of this work the testing of the speech recognition systems using russian language models including selecting and testing a speech recognition systems and designing architecture of the "twin" automation system was conducted [5] . based on the received information, we can conclude that the yandex system is good at recognizing short expressive phrases, as well as numerals. on contrary, the google api is good at recognizing long phrases and terms. the results of this research are being used in development of the automatic system that calls the customers of "twin" [1, 2, 4] . at the same time, both systems have problems with recognition in terms of noise, uneasy speech tempo and voice defects of the interlocutor. development experience of answer and question automated systems are described in some works: based on frame approach [9] , based on agent approach [10, 11, 15] and conceptual graphs [12] [13] [14] . this is due to the fact that both systems better recognize phonemes and phrases, and individual sounds are worse, especially if there are noises and other factors that distort the quality of the transmitted audio message. this observation is confirmed by the findings obtained by other independent researchers [3] . to eliminate such problems, it is necessary to include pre-and post-processing. these actions can provide requirements of recognition quality. pre-processing uses the dynamic selection of recognition services provided. subsequent processing of the received textual information includes the lemmatization and normalization of individual words in the recognized speech and other methods. for example, in the case of processing numbers, this is the application of tokenization technology. also in previous part of this work the research and selection of methods for evaluating information about part of speech, word form and statistical relationships between words have been done. as the conclusion of this research we can claim that the lemmatization method is most effective for solving the problems of dynamic text processing and recognition. however, to the same extent, this approach is extremely dependent on the exact definition of a part of speech (the lexical category of a word) and the language model. application of this algorithm leads to the fact that the analyzer module receives an array of words in primary form, due to which it is possible to easily recognize part of speech using the rules of the language model. however, this information in practice may not be enough for the further work of the decision-making module and generating a response. in addition, there is the possibility of recognition errors associated with incorrect recognition of the lexical category of a word and its initial form. to obtain a more accurate recognition and processing result, further post-processing mechanisms are used. the implementation of the lemmatization mechanism in the system was performed through some open-source package solutions of morphological processing and lemmatization for the php language. within the framework of this work, the design and development of an automated system named "twin" was carried out and details presents module of recognized text post-processing on the example of the russian and english languages dictionary models. since the approach of reducing the words to normal form and determining the parts of speech is insufficient for the voice robot to understand the interlocutor's speech and for further decision making, the system uses post-processing algorithms for normalized words. this is due to the presence of a number of problems, inaccuracies and recognition errors. in addition, the lemmatization method can occur recognition errors since the lexical category of a word can be incorrectly determined. there is also a big problem with the correct recognition of numerals, which leads to difficulty to identifying numbers, dates, addresses, etc. to solve these problems, several additional processing algorithms are used. many researchers provide several methods to improve quality of natural language processing based on stemming methods. when building the speech recognition module for voice system, we were guided for the most part not by coming up with conceptually new algorithms, but by focusing on the use and adaptation of existing and well-established approaches. the most often usable method based on implementation of a large vocabulary speech recognition system for the inflectional languages such as slavic group languages [8] . based on this approach the following method for additional processing was proposed. conventionally, we can distinguish the following steps of the additional processing of the second stage. • primary processing; • introduction of a keyword system and the use of stochastic keyword ranking; • introduction of a word stop-list system. decisions on the basic additional processing of normalized words are determined on the basis of the given settings and information on the lexical category of the word (part of speech) as a preparatory stage for more serious text analysis methods. the essence of the primary processing of the second stage of text analysis is the use of simple algorithms for automated morphological analysis. to increase the accuracy of recognition of numerals, the information contains numerals goes through the tokenization procedure. also, the system provides for the adjustment of language models, which allows you to customize the perception of numerals, dates, cases, as well as the need to use keywords. in addition, it is possible to configure the methods used for stemming. the introduction of a keyword system allows for significantly more effective recognition of language units. firstly, this is due to the fact that keywords can be tied to specific blocks of the dialogue script, which largely solves the problems associated with the context. this can be useful, for example, when processing paronyms. when creating a script in a special interface, creator of the scenario can set keywords for each person's answer. this dialogue scenario consists of various information blocks, most of which involve the interlocutor's response or expectation of a phrase. moreover, depending on the frequency of mentioning of certain words and phrases, further training takes place. the system, each time making a decision, increases the weight of a certain keyword in the expert table of stochastic data. thus, the likelihood of a particular word appearing during further launches of this dialogue scenario increases depending on the frequency of its appearance and correct recognition earlier. the processed text is transferred to the block of the analyzer of coincidence with keywords. at the same time, both processed normalized words and initially recognized words are transmitted to the system. keywords themselves can be set intentionally in various forms. due to these two conditions, the recognition quality can be significantly improved, and the table of knowledge base weights for the stochastic ranking method will be more trained. a similar approach is widespread in systems using stochastic knowledge bases. in addition, this makes it easy to solve the potential problem of the loss or distortion of the meaning of either a single word or the phrase itself as a whole. that is, if several variants of the same word are specified in the system for a certain block of the script, and both coincide with the original and lemmatized recognized words, then the probability weights for both keywords will significantly increase, and the weight of the script branch will also increase by the weight of both keywords. by default, the conditional weight of each keyword and each branch of the dialogue at the initial moment of execution time of a script is equal to one. when the lemmatized word coincides with the originally recognized word with the keywords, the weight of each keyword increases by one. in this case, the weight of the branch increases by two units. if only the keyword denoting the initial form and the lemmatized language unit coincide, then the weight of the script dialog branch increases by one. based on the dynamically calculated weights of each branch, at every moment a decision is made on the further development of the dialogue scenario taking into account the largest branch weight. this approach allows the author of the script to work out the dialogue features important for the script, which are influenced by the degree and conjugation of the verb, etc. as already mentioned, in addition to setting keywords the system provides for the use of tables of stochastic ranking of words by probability depending on the frequency of their appearance and correct recognition in dialogs. of course, to ensure the correct operation of such a system, it is necessary to implement and maintain a knowledge base. it is worth noting that this storage takes up much less volume than other knowledge base implementations for stochastic stemming methods would occupy. to ensure dynamic interaction, in the system it is implemented as a base tree. the use of the stochastic method is primarily due to the fact that an approach that implements only lemmatization algorithms is not able to provide sufficient reliability for correct speech recognition and decision making, since it places great responsibility on the system operator itself, which may be mistaken due to the human factor or not take into account all the options, which can have a big impact on the course of the dialogue. similar to using the keyword system in a word processing module, stop words are also used. their semantic load is similar to keywords. the essence of this idea is to strictly discard branches when the recognized word coincides with the stop word. this approach allows us to simplify the writing of some dialogue scenarios by providing the user with the opportunity to work with negation and exceptional situations, or to write down fewer keywords and work out less on premediating of potential scenarios. it also allows to speed up the processing of text, due to the fact that some cases can be immediately discarded and not be considered in the future. according to the implementation method, the process of recognizing stop words is practically no different from keywords. a lemmatized word and a primary word are transmitted to the handler in their original form recognized by an external open-source morphy system. these words are compared with stop words. if a match is found, the weight of the stop word in the knowledge base of stochastic rules increases, and the weight of the branch decreases to the minimum possible. thus, during the execution of the further procedure for selecting a scenario vector, this branch cannot be selected in any way. after applying all the rules and treatments, the search for a solution begins in accordance with the rules specified in the script, after which a response is generated. based on everything described earlier, a simplified process of additional processing of a phrase recognized by third-party systems occurs as follows: at the first step, the text recognized by a third-party system is transmitted to the post-processing module. this module analyzes this text in several stages. first of all, the text goes through the procedure of splitting into separate linguistic units -words and statistical grouping by phrases. each word is lemmatized, as a result of which the word in the initial form is returned at the output of the work of the stemming algorithms, and the lexical category of the word is also determined. next, the second stage of processing begins. based on the part of speech defined in the previous step, initial processing is performed. in this case, the rules defined when setting up language models are used, such as processing numerals, tokenization, processing dates, cases for nouns, etc. the processed words and words in their original form, recognized by third-party systems, are transferred to the next data processor, which deals with their comparison with keywords and stop words, which are pre-introduced to the system for the corresponding blocks of the dialogue script. if the words transmitted to the input of the algorithm coincide with the ones specified in the system, the statistical weights of the keywords and corresponding branches of the script increase. the weights of the words specified in the system are recorded in the production knowledge base of stochastic rules. thus, the ranking of words is provided and the model is trained. the more often these or other words and phrases are used when executing a script during dialogs, the more likely it is the appearance of these words in these forms with other passages of this scenario. accordingly, over time, these words will be more correctly recognized. finally, based on which branch, illustrating the possible choice of further development of the dialogue, is gaining the greatest weight, a decision is made and a response is generated. this process can be visualized using the following sequence diagram (see fig. 1 ). we are considering options for highlighting our own developments, such as a system of keywords, into separate freely distributed solutions. the implementation of the lemmatization mechanism in the system was performed through an open-source package solution of morphological processing and lemmatization for the php language -php morphy, which contains the corresponding knowledge bases -dictionaries for various language models. this solution easily integrates with the used development tool stack. this library supports aot and myspell project dictionaries. for the library to work, you need to compile a binary dictionary. when compiling, the dictionary is used in its original form. physically, the dictionary is presented in the form of several files, which are a data store in a key-value format, as well as storage of reference lexical information, grammatical information, end tables, grammes, etc. other word processing packages for processing declension cases, such as petrovitch library also are used. this package also allows to gender determination and develop and apply own linguistic rules. it should be noted that using of open-source systems in not limited by mentioned solutions. flexibility of proposed application and modern technologies itself allows to simple scaling or replacing third-party modules or adding new. moreover, proposed dialogue systems use other open-source packages for different modules that are not limited to post-processing speech recognition module. for example, we use rasa core module for speech-analyze subsystem and chat-bots. mentioned speech-analyze subsystem using as a part of customizable script. open-source solutions provide ability to integrate various implementations of exists methods, such as stemming text recognition methods in proposed case, with each other and own development. due to additional processing, the correct perception of speech and the meaning of what has been said and decision-making occurs in developing system. the development of the system involves the development and implementation of additional functions, such as the sending of statistical data and the creation of hints in the compilation of the script. to do this exists open-source solutions also can be used. analysis of internal statistics will help determine the priority directions for improving the interface and system features. the range of use of the system can be extended, due to the initial flexibility of the structure and wide ability to integrate with third-party solutions, packages and so on. it should be noted that proposed system twin is used in teaching intellectual technologies at the ural federal university on a free basis. we are considering options for highlighting our own developments, such as a system of keywords, into separate freely distributed solutions. testing of the speech recognition systems using russian language models development of decision making software agent for efficiency indicators system of it-specialists the study of the reliability of speech recognition by the system google voice search. cyberleninka.ru development of an intelligent automated system for dialogue and decision-making in real time on the use of acoustic characteristics of speech for the diagnosis of mental states of a person recognition of human emotions by spoken using intelligent data analysis methods large vocabulary continuous speech recognition of an inflected language using stems a framework for representing knowledge in the psychology of computer vision guest editors' introduction: agents and markets computationals-mechanism design: a call to arms knowledge representation: logical, philosophical, and computational foundations conceptual graphs for a database interface conceptual structures: information processing in mind and machine multiagent interaction models for constructing the needs-andmeans networks in open systems the work was supported by act 211 government of the russian federation, contract no. 02.a03.21.0006. key: cord-017841-57rm046y authors: flower, darren r.; perrie, yvonne title: immunomic discovery of adjuvants, delivery systems, and candidate subunit vaccines: a brief introduction date: 2012-09-28 journal: immunomic discovery of adjuvants and candidate subunit vaccines doi: 10.1007/978-1-4614-5070-2_1 sha: doc_id: 17841 cord_uid: 57rm046y mass vaccination, when coupled to profound improvements in general sanitation, has given rise to the most remarkable transformation in public health in human history. yet the development of vaccines remains largely trapped in the past, a hostage to the methodology of pasteur. infectious disease continues to threaten humanity, with new and renascent diseases emerging continually. the last two decades have seen a breath-taking revival in the commercial market for vaccines and the simultaneous emergence of a whole tranche of new technologies that promise to free vaccine development from the muddle of empirical thinking. in this short introduction, we set the scene for this renaissance, and explore how the combination of computational and experimental techniques promise so much for the future development of vaccines and the science of vaccinology. vaccination and sanitation are indisputably the most efficient, and thus costeffective, prophylactic treatments for infectious disease. together they are the firm bedrock upon which the modern world resides. the truth of this is often ignored by those intoxicated by the many distractions of life in the early twenty-first century, from burgeoning social media to the recondite discoveries of the large hadron collider. people say that the internet or the ipad or even facebook have transformed the world. if there is any truth in such assertions, then such transformations are at best shallow and superficial compared to the extraordinary reworking of lives that has transpired over hundreds rather than tens of years. the source of such change can be traced back, in part at least, to the discovery and exploitation of vaccines, vaccination, and vaccinology. for around the first 100 years of the vaccine story, the story was solely that of smallpox. as recently as the late 1960s, some 10-12 million cases of smallpox were recorded in 31 countries, with annual deaths of 2 million. yet today smallpox has, with the exception of a few well-guarded stockpiles, been completely eradicated: there have been no new cases for 30 years. the story of smallpox is thus the high point of the vaccination story; no other disease has been eradicated. polio or poliomyelitis is the next nearest to full eradication, having long been targeted by a systematic, coordinated, worldwide eradication campaign. in 1991, one such programme run by the pan american health organization effected a partial eradication of polio in the western hemisphere. subsequently, the global polio eradication program has radically reduced polio throughout the rest of the world, so that today we can count cases worldwide in the tens or hundreds instead of the hundreds-of-thousands or millions. yet, vaccine-preventable disease still kills millions. infectious and contagious disease cause approximately 25 % of world mortality, particularly in children under five. while in developed countries, mortality for diseases such as diphtheria, polio, or measles is less than 0.1 %, in other parts of the world deaths from such infectious diseases is significant. pertussis, tetanus, influenza, hib, hepatitis b are all responsible for deaths that number in the hundreds-of-thousands. perhaps the most execrable situation is measles, which accounts for 70,000 (over 5) and 540,000 (under 5) deaths. however, the leading global causes of death worldwide remain tuberculosis; diarrhoeal illnesses, especially rotaviruses; hiv/aids; and malaria. in 2010, 8.8 million contracted tb and 1.4 million died. disturbing though these numbers may seem, they nonetheless represent a significant reversal of a once ever-escalating trend. the number with latent tb peaked in 2005 at 9 million, while deaths from tb reached their peak at 1.8 million in 2003. however, these bald numbers are likely to be significant underestimates. let us also look at malaria. murray et al. have recently provided evidence that deaths from malaria over the thirty-year span to 2010 are much higher than previously believed [1] . their epidemiological figures show a peaked distribution over this period, increasing from around a million in 1980, peaking at approximately 1,820,000 in 2004, and then reducing to about 1,240,000 in 2010, with the greatest number dying in africa. these figures are roughly twice the values published by the who. it seems unlikely that the who's estimates for other major diseases are uniformly more accurate. why are these numbers so high? a principal reason is that there are no effective vaccines for either malaria or hiv, two of the who's big three diseases; nor is there expectation that such vaccines will appear in the near future, irrespective of the optimism of those working in the area. and as for tuberculosis-which is carried by around 2 billion people worldwide-the only licensed vaccine has limited efficacy. many viral infections remain recalcitrant threats of the first order. about 350 million people are infected with hepatitis b, 170 million by hepatitis c, and 40 million by human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (hiv-1). this dire situation is further compounded by the threat from the 35 new or previously unknown infectious diseases identified in the past 30 years: hiv, west nile fever, ebola, dengue fever, sars, and the potentially pandemic h5n1 influenza. every year, between 5 and 15 % of the global population becomes infected with a new influenza strain, causing upwards of half-a-million deaths. it is widely thought that there will be a continual emergence of new infectious diseases during the present century: emerging zoonotic infections and antibiotic-resistant bacteria prominent amongst them. in the face of declining birth rates, coupled to decades of ever-enhancing nutrition, advances in treatment regimens and medicines are leading the population of most developed and developing countries figuratively to age: that is for larger and larger proportions of the population to live to maturity and beyond. growth in life expectancy is matched by growth in the diseases of old age. these include neurodegenerative diseases, principally parkinson's or alzheimer's disease; cardiovascular diseases; and stroke. disease has altered significantly in the preceding century. it will continue to alter during the century to come. some alterations we can predict; others will escape the forecaster's eye. disease, particularly infectious disease, has been beaten, or, at least, severely restrained. many factors have conspired to effect this-improved water quality, better precautionary hygiene, improved nutrition, decreased overcrowding-as well as many interventionary measures, principally antibiotic therapy and vaccines. hitherto, vaccines have been an uncompromising success, yet, as we see, so much more needs to be done if the full potential of vaccines is to be achieved. although the licensing and use of vaccines varies between countries, 25-30 commonly licensed vaccines target a range of viral or bacterial infectious diseases, with approximately 14 paediatric diseases targeted during the first few years of life. other than paediatric vaccination, most vaccines are used by travellers to tropical or subtropical regions; a significant minority fight infection in the developing world. vaccination also works to greatly reduce the morbidity of disease, often imbuing lifetime protection; this is particularly important for benign yet economically important infections, such as the so-called common cold. diverse sporadic or epidemic infections of the human respiratory track-as caused by an excess of 200 distinct viruses, such as rsv or, more properly, respiratory syncytial virus, coronaviruses, influenza a and b, rhinoviruses, parainfluenza virus, and cytomegalovirus-remain a principal cause of hospitalisation and community morbidity with an estimated 60 % of gp referrals associated with such infections, and cause the loss of enormous numbers of working days in developed countries. given the recalcitrance, and the immense investment in treatment and prophylaxis, it may be that many of the diseases alluded to above will never be eradicated, as smallpox was, and that vaccines alone will not be enough. we may instead need a complex network of prophylactic and therapeutic measures at least as complex as the diseases themselves in order to effectively reduce the prevalence of the disease and to treat those who become infected. whatever other countermeasures we may have recourse to-artemisinin-based drugs, genetically manipulated vectors, or insecticide-treated bednets-the clinical and cost effectiveness of vaccines means they remain the must-have component in the ongoing search for better means of combating endemic infectious disease. beyond infectious disease lies what is possibly the most underexplored area within the ever burgeoning field of vaccinology and vaccination: vaccines against allergy and allergic disease; vaccines that target so-called lifestyle diseases, such as those deriving from addiction; and vaccines that target chronic diseases, the most important of which is cancer. therapeutic vaccines against cancer are probably the best studied amongst the more novel, innovative, and underexplored areas at the forefront of vaccine discovery. the present overall whole-life risk from cancer, at least in developed countries, runs at or about 40 %. the figure is currently rising. there are approximately 3·2 million new cancer cases in europe each year, resulting in around 1·7 million deaths. in the usa, over one and half million new cases are reported annually. clearly, this is an important disease burden, and thus a key target for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries. lifestyle vaccines are another innovation, of which much is expected in certain quarters. they target all kinds of medical problems, ranging from drug addiction through dental caries, all the way to major genetic and multifactorial diseases, including obesity. versatility and flexibility are major hallmarks of the vaccination concept. vaccines take many forms and work in many ways. this facet has been exploited in the development of life-style vaccines. let us look at serious addiction. during 2009, the united nations office on drugs and crime estimated 3.3-6.1 % of the global population abused so-called illicit substances-a serious problem indeed with an enormous implicit health, economic, and behavioural burden, with the worst excesses coming from cannabis abuse and the abuse of amphetamine, cocaine, and opiates. anti-drug vaccines generate antibodies able to bind particular drugs; the drug-antibody complexes thus generated should have too high a molecular weight to penetrate the blood-brain barrier effectively, thus reducing the amount and rate of drug egress into the brain and so inhibiting psychoactive effects at the system level. anti-addiction vaccines have been with us for some time, beginning over 40 years ago, when two proof-of-principle studies [2, 3] demonstrated in rats and in rhesus monkeys that morphine could be used as a hapten in order to create an antibody against morphine addiction. today, addiction vaccines are being developed to target a range of major abused drugs, such as nicotine, cocaine, various amphetamines, and heroin. anti-allergy vaccination also offers great potential for successful commercial exploitation. the prophylaxis and treatment of allergy can now be addressed in many ways, including, notably, recombinant proteins and dna vaccines. vaccines against the common cold or anti-allergy vaccines are similar in mechanism to many lifestyle vaccines. these do not save lives directly but do help to greatly reduce the vast economic burden of disease morbidity. an array of interconnecting factors that have made the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries re-evaluate the potential of vaccines as a commercially viable product. prior to 1980, there were relatively few vaccines, most targeting major pandemic diseases of the developed or developing worlds. subsequently, partly as a result of enhanced technology as discussed at length in the current book, many vaccines have become available, most recently the cervical papillomavirus vaccine. likewise, there are hundreds upon hundreds of vaccines in trials. the growth rate in the sales of vaccines reflects this feverish and febrile activity: the rate of sales growth for vaccines is something like 16 %, compared to the sluggish drugs market, meandering its desultory way at 4 % per annum. there is profit in vaccines, clearly; what remains problematic for the profit-driven decision-making processes of big pharma is the haphazard and probabilistic nature of vaccine discovery. what the pharmaceutical industry needs is the capacity to apply the same systematic, automated, high-technology approaches used to identify new small-molecule drugs to the discovery and development of vaccines. no right-minded scientist, looking back across the last 200 years, would wish to argue seriously with the contention that the design and development of vaccines is an innately labour-intensive process. the processes deployed to meet the objective of creating new and better vaccines are in desperate need of change. this change must be radical if we hope to simplify such processes. simple processes are hopefully also fast and efficient processes. in the search for subunit vaccine antigens, one technical development-reverse vaccinology-has proved the most profound and hopeful. just over a decade ago, rino rappuoli used the expression "reverse vaccinology" to describe development of vaccines using a genomic-based approach, rather than the ponderous empirical methods favoured then, and still in use today. reverse vaccinology seems about to deliver on its early potential: the european medicines agency is in the process of evaluating novartis's bexsero, the first commercial vaccine developed using the reverse vaccinology approach. the vaccine may become the first vaccine effectively to combat meningococcus b, a disease causing over 50 % of global meningococcal meningitis. a decision on bexsero is expected shortly. during the development of bexsero, new protective protein antigens were identified using genomics: initially over 600 surface-exposed proteins were predicted from the n. meningitidis proteome as molecules liable to host immune surveillance, of which about 350 were then expressed in e. coli. this number was reduced by using these proteins to immunize 350 sets of mice, identifying 91 that could induce antibodies in vivo, 29 of which killed n. meningitidis in vitro. by comparing the genomes of 31 clinical strains, a further subset of proteins offering broad protection could be identified. reverse vaccinology has become perhaps the most famous well-developed approach amongst many advanced approaches now available within the discipline of vaccinology. indeed, a whole range of other, high-technology methods and techniques have been and are being developed to complement and optimise reverse vaccinology. capitalising on its success, these offer new hope in our constant struggle with infection; all we need is for this technology to be fostered, developed, and utilised. this book is intended to fill a gap, if not a void, in current thinking within vaccine design and development by attempting to draw together several disparate strands; and, by doing so, also identify and illuminate some important areas replete with potential. science, in much the same way that all human activities, from the most profound to the most trivial, follows fashion and progresses by tracking trends. whether we think of publically funded science or the pharmaceutical industry, similar phenomena are observed. science follows the money, and money follows consensus. the decision-making process underpinning the strategic direction that policy in both publically funded science and the pharmaceutical industry takes is only in part influenced by science. it is also regrettably in thrall to many, sometimes contradictory, voices: the fickleness of public opinion, vested interests of many hues and flavours, and the myopia of the profit margin, amongst many others. this is because the decision-makers in such organisations are seldom if ever scientists engaged in doing science directly; management and policy, at both the strategic and tactical levels, are often swayed by the prevalence of opinion. in the pharmaceutical industry, for instance, this is manifest as the next big thing: combinatorial libraries, genomics, high-throughput screening, antisense, even molecular modelling; all were hailed as transformative saviours that would remove happenstance and unpredictability from drug discovery-yet as the current parlous state of the pharmaceutical industry readily attests, while all promised much, none really delivered. no single technique can achieve everything, which is why we should always develop a large range of alternatives, both informaticsbased and experimental, all running in parallel. central to computational immunology is the capacity to make accurate predictions. yet, obtaining routes to prediction that are accurate, robust, and dependable continually eludes us. immunoinformatics deals with empirical, datadependent methods. the success and utility of such methods depends very much on the data used to propagate and parameterise them; they cannot escape the severe limitations imposed by the data used to create them. the data from which we build models forms a complex phase space of structural and property variation, which can be extremely multidimensional, with a high degree of interdimensional correlation. when the data we work with is reliable and our knowledge of it is complete, then we can create useful models by applying standard methods from computer science to build accurate and predictive models relating observed biological activity to underlying measurable or predictable properties. usually, such approaches are also much superior when used to interpolate than they are when used to extrapolate. we need complete and thorough data sets effectively and efficiently able to explore the complex relationships between structure and function, necessitating continuous improvement in all aspects of data quality. within the wider context of vaccine design and discovery, we shall in this book describe and explore a range of key alternative strategies and technologies, both informatics-based and experimental, which are, by degrees, both supportive and complementary to reverse vaccinology and more traditional approaches to vaccine discovery. this book looks in turn at reverse vaccinology and the identification of putative candidate antigens, at the discovery of a wide range of different types of adjuvants, and finally at the development of sophisticated new delivery mechanisms, such as liposomes and other applications of nanotechnology. in chap. 2, cafardi et al. review the present state of play with respect to reverse vaccinology, with particular emphasis on how completion of bacterial genomes impinges upon the vaccine discovery. they show how this approach allows the development vaccines that are difficult or near impossible to address with conventional approaches. they also highlight how advances in genome-based techniques and in so-called next-generation sequencing approaches and technologies will help to enhance reverse vaccinology, enabling timely identification of novel candidate antigens for new, emerging, or recrudescent infectious diseases. in chap. 3, flower et al. review the discovery of candidate vaccine antigens in more detail. placing their analysis in the context of emerging ideas about the possible nature of immunogenicity and how it may be propagated by elements of the immune response at the system level, the authors discuss the three main approaches to the identification of novel immunogenic antigens: sequence similarity-based approaches, whereby the antigen nature of a protein is inherited from similar sequences; methods based on identifying the subcellular location of microbial proteins, on the basis that proteins with only certain locations would be accessible to immune surveillance; and the use of empirical alignment-independent approaches to the prediction of antigens. usefully, the chapter also includes discussion of expert systems for antigen discovery. in chap. 4, vordermeier et al. review how genomics and the development of bioinformatics have radically transformed the cattle vaccinology of bovine tuberculosis. within the context of a generalised infrastructure of bioinformatic analytical techniques, the authors describe in detail how the application of comparative in silico transcriptome and genome analysis is able to undertake prospective prioritisation of immunogenic antigens for experimental testing, leading to the identification of candidate subunit vaccines. in chap. 5, he explores the use of epitope-focused immunoinformatic analysis in the prediction of optimal vaccine candidates when undertaking a genome-wide reverse vaccinology exercise. specifically, he describes the web-server vaxign, concentrating on a case study: vaccine design against the virulent bacterium francisella tularensis, where 12 candidates were chosen using a combination of pertinent selection criteria. in chap. 6, dhillon et al. offer us a wide-ranging review of methods and strategies for two important areas of immunoinformatic analysis within the domain of vaccine discovery: predicting the immunogenic subcellular location of microbial proteins and identifying proteins encoded by so-called genomic islands. while in chap. 7, ansari et al. describe a variety of database systems that facilitate immunoinformatics and antigen selection. chapters 8 and 9 look at adjuvants and their discovery. in chap. 8, edwards describes the basis of adjuvant action, and the role played by macromolecular adjuvants. in chap. 9, flower explores and examines different varieties of molecular adjuvant and their discovery, concentrating on small molecule adjuvants, and their systematic identification using virtual screening technology. this topic is put into context by a thorough review of extant adjuvants, molecular mechanisms of adjuvant action, as well as macromolecular adjuvants and how various adjuvants engage pattern recognition receptors of the innate immune system. in addition to the characteristics of the antigen and the adjuvant independently, how the antigen and adjuvant are presented to the immune system has a major impact on the biological output of the vaccine. indeed, the co-delivery and continued association of antigen and adjuvant may be a prerequisite in effective immunisation. this is not a new idea; the ability of alum to promote an antigen depot effect at the site of action has been ascribed as one of its main mechanisms of action for several years. for example, since 1977 the who has recommended that over 80 % of diphtheria toxoid needs to be adsorbed to alum for its effective use [4] . whilst this does not ensure that the antigen remains adsorbed to alum after injection and exposure to interstitial fluid, it is thought to at least initially promote colocation of the antigen with the alum adjuvant. however, alum is not the only adjuvant able to promote the co-delivery of antigens and adjuvants in one system; a range of particulate delivery systems can offer this. examples of such delivery systems include lipid-based systems (e.g., liposomes, niosomes, iscoms) and microparticles. each of these systems offer a suite of advantages and disadvantages and when considering the choice of delivery system attributes including antigenloading capacity, antigen retention and protection both on storage and within the biological milieu, and the ability to incorporate adjuvants within the delivery system all require optimisation and this is without consideration of the ability of the delivery system to act as an adjuvant in its own right. in this book we aim to address these issues by considering several of the most commonly employed particulate vaccine delivery systems. out of these particulate delivery systems liposomes are one of the most established systems; liposomes were first reported as an effective immunological adjuvant for diphtheria toxoids by allison and gregoriadis in 1974 [5] . since then, a large array of understanding on their design has been gathered and strong links between their formulation and function identified. of these parameters, the composition of the liposomes will play a pivotal role. for example, the surface charge of liposomes used for vaccine delivery can influence the interactions between liposomes and protein antigens, and affect how liposomes interact with cells. this manipulation of surface charge can range from the inclusion of anionic lipids such as phosphatidylserine, which may facilitate the targeting of antigen presenting cells through interaction with phosphatidylserine receptors. alternatively, the use of cationic lipids can improve the loading of anionic antigens to the liposomes and upon injection promote a depot effect at the site of injection, promoting the codelivery of antigen and adjuvant to dendritic cells (e.g., [6, 7] ). however, this depot effect is more than electrostatically driven, with the choice of cationic lipids used in the formulation having an impact as explored in chap. 10. in addition to liposomes, there are a range of alternative surfactant-based delivery systems, such as niosomes. these are similar in many ways to liposomes; however, non-ionic surfactants form the main component of their bilayers. the most common composition of niosomes investigated for vaccine delivery is 1-monopalmitoyl glycerol, cholesterol, and dicetyl phosphate. one might argue this is not a niosome formulation due to the inclusion of anionic dicetyl phosphate. however, the addition of charged surfactants has proven to enhance the stability of these vesicles and their inclusion in these vesicles is common practice. generally, niosomes exhibit many similarities to liposomes; however, potential advantages cited include their lack of predisposition to oxidative degradation, as well potential lower cost of components and reduced variability compared to natural phospholipids. whilst with current manufacturing methods, the cost and reproducibility of phospholipids is less of an issue, niosomes still offer a useful alternative to liposome formulations. in particular, niosomes appear an attractive option for oral delivery of vaccines due to their ability to withstand the harsh gastrointestinal environment as outlined in chap. 11. with both liposomes and niosomes, immunostimulatory agents can be easily incorporated within the system and in some cases this can result in restructuring of the particulate delivery system as is the case with iscoms (chap. 12). iscoms are prepared from a mixture of phospholipid, cholesterol, and a saponin (often quil a). whilst a phospholipid/cholesterol mixture would normally form liposomes, the addition of appropriate concentrations of saponin to the mixture can result in restructuring of the system to form spherical, open, cage-like structures around 40 nm in size, as nicely shown in chap. 12. given that their structures are open, iscoms cannot incorporate hydrophilic antigens, and antigens need to display a degree of lipophilicity for inclusion into iscoms. if required, antigens can be modified through a range of methods to incorporate lipophilic regions within their structure, thereby promoting their incorporation into the structure. alternatively, similar to cationic liposomes, cationic iscoms (where cationic components are used to build their structure) can electrostatically bind a range of anionic antigens and enhance their delivery. in chap. 12 the formulation, preparation, and application of iscoms as vaccine adjuvants is considered. however, lipid-based systems are only one group of particulate delivery systems, and polymeric systems have also been extensively studied. in particular the use of biodegradable polymers to formulate nano-and microparticulate delivery systems for vaccines has been widely investigated. much like the lipid-based systems, there is a wide selection of options to consider in the formulation of polymeric nanoparticles and microspheres for vaccine delivery, with polyester polymers offering advantages due to their clinical approved use in a range of medical products. as with the other systems considered, immunostimulatory agents can be incorporated within these polymer constructs and thus these systems can act as delivery systems and adjuvants for antigens. within chap. 13, the design of polymeric microspheres as vaccine adjuvants is considered from the choice of base polymer, through to optimisation of process parameters, and finally to considerations of their stability as a product. whilst much of current research into the development of vaccines has focused on the design of vaccines for administration of a particulate suspension, dry powder vaccines may hold considerable advantages. in chap. 14, the authors consider the design of dry powder vaccines. such vaccines may offer low-cost, temperaturestable products suitable for pulmonary delivery, with the added advantage that the pulmonary route avoids the use of needles (and their associated risks). furthermore, it can allow for the effective delivery of antigens to target cells of the immune system without the harsh conditions faced by orally delivered vaccines. the development of spray-drying methods outlined in chap. 14 supports the ability of such powder vaccines to be delivered using conventional dry powder inhalers already clinically licensed for pulmonary delivery. therefore, by considering these vaccine delivery platforms in conjunction with the appropriate choices for antigen and adjuvant it is hoped that the threefold multicomponent nature of a vaccine can be considered more completely than before. when viewed conceptually, vaccines comprise an important triad. the first part of the vaccine, and in a sense the most important, is the biological component. this is the whole protein, or whole organism, or epitope-based part which confers the ability to be recognised by the immune system. it is this part which differentiates one vaccine from another, an anti-flu vaccine from an anti-tb vaccine. the second part of the vaccine is the adjuvant, which is one of many alternatives, that confers an immunogenicity to many vaccines that they would otherwise not possess. it often does this in a generic fashion, such as via agonising the innate immune system, so that the same adjuvant is quite capable of functioning in many different vaccine formulations. the final and third part of the vaccine is the delivery vehicle, as opposed to the delivery mechanism, such as oral vaccines versus injectable. the vehicle can be things as different as a viral vector or a liposome. an attenuated or heat-treated whole-organism vaccine can be thought of as combining all three parts of this triad in one supra-molecular moiety. of course, this is a gross simplification, and many other things go into deployable vaccine formulations, such as preservatives, contaminants, and other chemical or biological components that so exercise the anti-vaccine lobby. hopefully, this book will encourage us to think of vaccines in these terms, and provides the background necessary to engage with each of the three components of the vaccine triad. with this in mind, the anticipation inherent with this work is indeed simple and straightforward: to foster and foment interest in those areas of vaccinology that this far have not received the level of intense work that they richly deserve. to help achieve this, we have sought to balance optimistic positivity and cold, hard rationality. not all of the approaches described will ultimately bear fruit, but each should, nonetheless, be examined with equal diligence, sedulousness, and assiduity. global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis evidence for active immunity to morphine in mice changes in heroin selfadministration by a rhesus monkey after morphine immunisation world health organization. manual for the production and control of vaccines-tetanus toxoid. blg/undp/77.2 rev liposomes as immunological adjuvants liposomes based on dimethyldioctadecylammonium promote a depot effect and enhance immunogenicity of soluble antigen a liposome-based mycobacterial vaccine induces potent adult and neonatal multifunctional t cells through the exquisite targeting of dendritic cells key: cord-321346-epsp3bbm authors: luppa, peter b.; müller, carolin; schlichtiger, alice; schlebusch, harald title: point-of-care testing (poct): current techniques and future perspectives date: 2011-03-21 journal: trends analyt chem doi: 10.1016/j.trac.2011.01.019 sha: doc_id: 321346 cord_uid: epsp3bbm point-of-care testing (poct) is a laboratory-medicine discipline that is evolving rapidly in analytical scope and clinical application. in this review, we first describe the state of the art of medical-laboratory tests that can be performed near the patient. at present, poct ranges from basic blood-glucose measurement to complex viscoelastic coagulation assays. poct shortens the time to clinical decision-making about additional testing or therapy, as delays are no longer caused by transport and preparation of clinical samples, and biochemical-test results are rapidly available at the point of care. improved medical outcome and lower costs may ensue. recent, evolving technological advances enable the development of novel poct instruments. we review the underlying analytical techniques. if new instruments are not yet in practical use, it is often hard to decide whether the underlying analytical principle has real advantage over former methods. however, future utilization of poct also depends on health-care trends and new areas of application. but, even today, it can be assumed that, for certain applications, near-patient testing is a useful complement to conventional laboratory analyses. a large number of laboratory analyses support correct diagnosis in over 50% of all diseases, in addition to aiding the monitoring of drug therapy in many other cases. laboratory medicine is therefore a vital component in differential diagnosis in the clinic and in local general practice. an affordable, competent system of laboratory diagnostics, in the doctorõs office and hospital, has been made possible through centralization of analysis in purpose-built laboratories or in facilities provided by large hospitals. in contrast to this centralization and increased efficiency in laboratory diagnostics, there has been a recent trend towards a more decentralized diagnostic analysis, so-called point-of-care testing (poct), which occurs directly at patientsõ beds, in operating theatres or outpatient clinics, or at sites of accidents. this modern variety of laboratory medicine is characterized by minimizing instrument size and procedures and the increasing use of current information technology. there are analytical devices available that make it possible to process a whole blood sample in a simple manner, allowing untrained staff to carry out laboratory diagnostics. it is clear that the use of poct shortens the time between sample acquisition and analysis (turnaround time). however, this type of diagnosis is only useful if the results produced lead to immediate therapeutic decisions [1] . however, there is still a paucity of evidence supporting the use of poct and improved patient outcomes [2] . nevertheless, it is not difficult to predict that there will be growth in the development of poct diagnostics for parameters that are at present available only in central laboratories. this growth is supported by new analytical technologies amalgamating issues (e.g., miniaturization, nanoparticle techniques, multiplexing, wireless connectivity, and novel biomarkers). clinical pathology as a discipline needs to be responsible for this field, since adherence to quality-management systems ensures accurate, reliable biochemical-test results for optimal patient care and safety, regardless of whether the individual test is performed in a central laboratory or as poct at the bedside [2] . poct is mainly characterized by proximity to the patient, quantitative or semi-quantitative single measurements, short turnaround time, no sample preparation, no pipetting, use of pre-made reagents, user-friendly dedicated analytical instruments and instant, resultdeduced therapeutic action [3, 4] . all outpatient or ward personnel will be expected to be able to use these analyzers. no previous knowledge in sample analysis should be required. however, there is a continual transition between poct and laboratory-based methods. a generally accepted definition of poct is still under debate. for example, viscoelastic coagulation tests, described below in this article as ''type 4'' poct, are to be performed near the patient in cases of active bleeding. the results have to be available quickly to allow instant therapeutic action. however, the caregiver is mostly overstrained when operating the viscoelastic apparatus, so often these analyses are performed in a central laboratory with online transmission of the sensorgrams to the operating room; so these analyzers can be called ''pseudo-poct''. currently, the annual turnover for poct in vitro diagnostics in europe stands at approximately €3bn, germany contributing €0.9bn of this; the majority comes from blood-sugar-test strips and devices for home testing in diabetes. in the past few years, the market for poct systems grew yearly by more than 10%, but this rapid growth has been slightly dampened since 2007. nevertheless, a marked increase is expected mid-term and long-term [1] . table 1 gives insight into the variety of parameters available at present. 2. current techniques: categorization of the stateof-the-art poct devices poct devices often employ biosensors (fig. 1) . according to the iupac definition, a biosensor is an analytical device for the detection of analytes that combines a biological component with a physicochemical-detector component. this generally occurs through the use of miniaturized analysis systems, where biological components are immobilized on a solid-state surface, which, in turn, interacts with the analyte [5] . these interactions may be detected by using either electrochemical or optical methods. in the latter case, a large role is played by fluorescence or reflection spectroscopy. different parameters, being characteristic for certain diseases, can be detected by using specific biomolecules. poct analyzers currently available can be separated into various groups. we attempt to categorize the instruments according to their practical use in poct and moreover by the following attributes: sensor characteristics, complexity, measuring mode, underlying detection principle and/or sample matrix. here is the simplest form of quantitative poct device, with most of the analysis taking place on the respective test strips. the reader is used only to read the result from the strips where the reaction has already taken place. these test strips are one-use articles. examples include figure 1 . the biosensor as the basis of analysis in many point-of-care testing (poct) instruments. note that the recognition layer may comprise attached recognition elements (antibodies, receptors, aptamers . . .) or immobilized enzymes. in the latter case, the addition of substrates is essential. not illustrated is the fact that the amplified signal is finally processed by microelectronics and displayed. glucometers for home and the hospital poct stations, as well as the i-stat abbott (abbott park, il, usa), a multi-parameter unit-use poct instrument [7] . blood-sugar analysis is, both historically and financially, the most commonly used poct technique. this is valid for in-patient and out-patient care, and for home testing by patients. although generally either capillary or venous blood is used, the results can be presented as blood-glucose or plasma-glucose level, depending on the calibration by the manufacturers. this can make a relevant difference of over 11%, potentially resulting in false therapeutic measures. to minimize the risk of confusion between whole-blood and plasma-glucose results, the international federation of clinical chemistry and laboratory medicine (ifcc) suggested in 2005 that glucose values should be given as plasma levels only, independent of sample type or measuring method. the usa and other countries have already followed this recommendation, and it is also now being implemented in the german-speaking regions [8, 9] . the strong correlation between the international normalized ratio (inr) and the clinical outcome of oral anticoagulation with vitamin k antagonists (warfarin, marcumar) has led to a tight therapy-monitoring regime using inr poct devices. inr testing may be performed at the doctorõs office or by the patient (''home testing''). for the most popular devices see table 3 . all these systems use unit-use test strips and whole blood obtained by finger prick, making them most convenient for the patient [10] . different types and sensitivities of the thromboplastins used and the different signaling types (micromechanical versus electrochemical) cause systematic differences between results obtained with the different inr devices [11] . however, the between-day precision of the devices seems to be satisfactory [12] , so the monitoring should be performed with one single type of device. these instruments are generally more complex than unit-use machines and use different analytical principles [1] : spectrophotometric substrate and enzyme-activity measurement; hematological particle counting; immunoassay; and, sensor-based blood-gas analysis tailored for special poct applications. they use antibody-based immunoassay methodologies. bgas use potentiometric/amperometric or optical sensors for ph, po 2 and pco 2 . additional ion-sensitive electrodes for the measurement of electrolytes and other substrates are available. a selection of systems from the seven marketdominating manufacturers is given in table 4 . optional is the configuration of a bga with a cooximetry unit. this is a most remarkable technical development. the co-oximetry unit [4] is a miniaturized multi-wavelength spectro-photometer, which measures the typical absorption spectra of the various hemoglobin (hb) species in order to distinguish o 2 -hb (oxy-hb) from other hb species and to determine the o 2 -hb saturation [i.e. the percentage of o 2 -hb compared to the total amount of hb, including co-hb, o 2 -hb, deoxygenated hb (hhb with fe 2+ ), and met-hb (hhb with fe 3+ )]. all leading companies on the market have sophisticated oximetry units on board their blood-gas analyzers, which have no counterpart in the central medical laboratory. the only technological diversification is the factor that the hb species are found only inside the erythrocytes. hence, some systems use a cell-lysis step prior to spectrophotometry, whereas others eliminate the erythrocyte-caused light scattering by applying matrixassisted algorithms. these poct compatible machines show a high degree of complexity. although they are valid for use in poct, only qualified personnel should operate them (e.g., a laboratory physician or a trained technical assistant). the combined analysis of plasma clotting, thrombocyte function and fibrinolysis is termed viscoelastic coagulation testing [13] . examples include the rotem (tem international, munich, germany) [14] or the sonoclot from sienco inc (arvada, co, usa). it is also possible to analyze platelet function in terms of in vitro bleeding time or via optical aggregometry [15] . examples here are the pfa 100 from siemens healthcare diagnostics (eschborn, germany) or the verifynow from accumetrics (san diego, ca, usa) [16] and [17] . as described in the introduction, these analyzers have to be called pseudo-poct. the most common example here is continuous glucose monitoring [18] . such analyzing and application systems are already available commercially. they are likely to replace the invasive, intravenous electrode by the minimally invasive location of a microdialysis catheter in subcutaneous tissue (fig. 2) . conversely, other non-invasive methods (e.g., microporation or optical techniques in direct transcutaneous measurement of metabolic parameters) are at least unlikely to prevail. this is mainly due to the broad range of human-skin characteristics concerning thickness, pigmentation and hairiness as well as physiological phenomena (e.g., humidity and salt content). currently available systems for continuous glucose monitoring are the guardian rt from medtronics (minneapolis, mn, usa), the glucoday from a. menarini 2.6. type 6 -molecular biology-based poct devices to detect infectious agents at present on the market, there are many qualitative test strips to detect infectious pathogens. the basic principle in most systems is immunochromatography of a specific microbial antigen (or, more rarely, antibody) in the patient sample (urine, swab, or whole blood). there have also been some attempts to use molecular biological methods [mostly the polymerase chain reaction, (qrt)-pcr] for poct, although these are technically demanding (with a dna/rna-extraction step required), so that they are no rapid tests in the strict sense (yet). due to the complexity of the test procedures and the challenging interpretation of results, future rapid nucleic-acid testing (nat) is more likely to be located in the central laboratory rather than at the bed-side [19] . nevertheless, rapid quantification of dna/rna from various infectious agents will be beneficial for clinical diagnostics. at present, the genexpert system from cepheid (sunnyvale, ca, usa) is the cutting-edge device to automate and to integrate all real-time pcr-based nat steps: sample preparation, dna amplification and detection. the system is a 1-16-site, random-access instrument, integrating real-time cycler, amplification and fluorescence detection. the use of multiple fluorescence dyes permits multiplex assays for detection of several targets within a single sample. the system provides pcr-test results from a raw clinical sample in about 1 h, enabling time-critical nat at the point of need. there is a series of different unit-use microfluidic cartridges to be inserted into the analyzer {e.g., the ''xpert sa nasal complete'' cartridge is designed to detect s. aureus and mrsa colonization from nasal pharyngeal swabs flu a-panel cartridge is already under evaluation [20] }. the currently available novel poct systems are in part forerunners of a new generation of laboratory systems, which will dominate the market in 10-20 yearsõ time (fourth-generation laboratory systems). these methods are characterized through miniaturization, parallel analyses and networking via information technology (it) [1] . 3.1.1. miniaturization. microfluidics, chip technology and electrochemical detection have enabled the construction of miniaturized systems, with which even dna may be directly analyzed in a few microliters of sample. immunoassays and other methods of protein determination may also be carried out by ''micro-total analysis systems'' (ltas). the advantages of miniaturization are obvious: fluid volumes in the nl and pl range reduce not only the amount of reagents required but also the time needed for basic analytical processes (e.g., mixing and equilibrating) [21] . 3.1.2. parallelization. chip technology opens up the possibility of measuring multiple channels or multiple time points in the smallest space; photolithographic techniques allow reaction reservoirs and liquid channels to be etched on a wafer to enable 100 or more measurements to be taken simultaneously. an even higher density of reactions has already been realized in gene analysis with the use of microarrays. appropriate microautomation systems allow multiple laboratory profiles to be established rapidly and cost effectively, thereby opening up the possibility of obtaining an overview of a patientõs situation in just a few minutes. the use of a pattern of laboratory values -in contrast to single parameters -may, at least in principle, open up new diagnostic and prognostic avenues. however, the attendant problems in evaluating and interpreting the massive amounts of data thus obtained remain unsolved. networking. next-generation laboratory systems will generally be networked via it, and an international communication standard (poct1-a) already exists for this purpose. however, current pointto-point communications (e.g., that between decentralized blood-glucose monitors and the laboratory it system) show only a modest beginning. for the future, there have been discussions on individual electronic patient files, in which laboratory values from various sources can be directly input and linked to other results. at present, a wave of novel analytical principles and instruments can be envisioned for the near future, including alternative biological detection elements (scaffolds, aptamers, or anticalins in place of antibodies), sophisticated applications of optical-signal technologies (total internal reflection fluorescence, surface plasmon resonance, reflectometric interference spectroscopy) [22] and new dedicated microarrays for inflammation, malignancies and autoantibody diagnostics. this process will be encouraged through innovation from the communication industry, particularly via wireless networking (wifi) technology. the following details refer to new instruments that are on the market or will shortly to be analyzer. this cartridge-based instrument allows the determination of hba1c, albumin/creatinine ratio (acr), and crp by reflectometry. for testing, whole blood, plasma and urine samples can be used. the advantages of this device are short assay times, all-inone reagent cartridges and its ease of application. tech. this is a hand-held immunoassay machine, which carries out immunological reactions using magnetizable nanoparticles. the particles are labeled with antibodies and exposed to a variable magnetic field. detection is performed with a ''bound-from-free'' separation of reaction components, currently using a frustrated total internal reflection method. nanoparticles can also be used in the so-called giant magnetoresistance effect in signal generation [23] . we expect that the instrument will provide a multi-analyte detection mode, with a spectrum of parameters (e.g., cardiac markers, parathormone and sepsis parameters). this company is developing a new signal-generation and detection technology. the poct instrument uses a piezo film made from polyvinyl fluoride, which acts as a pyroelectric film, thereby enabling an ultrasensitive non-separation assay design for immunoassays (e.g., cardiac markers, thyroid hormones). when led light strikes the piezo film, it causes thermal disturbance with subsequent changes in the charge (signal). however, this is only the case when a carbon particle-labeled immuno complex was previously bound. a labeled antibody, free in the solution and not bound to the surface, does not cause a change in the charge of the piezo film. analyzers. an innovative technology based on an established detection principle is realized in the new multiplate analyzer (dynabyte, munich, germany). the device uses the impedance aggregometry principle [24] for the assessment of platelet function in whole blood. blood thrombocytes are non-thrombogenic in their resting state, but expose receptors on their surface when being activated. this allows them to attach on vascular injuries and artificial surfaces (e.g., the sensor wires). when the platelets aggregate on the multiplate wires, they enhance the electrical resistance between them, which can be continuously recorded. in order to enhance the resistance on the sensor wires, tight attachment of the platelets is required. a number of plateletstimulating test reagents are available for specific, comprehensive platelet diagnostics. 3.2.5. type 5 -continuous measurement with poct systems. for a continuous mode of poct measurements, minimally-invasive microdialysis systems have become accepted as best approach. nevertheless, the most desired clinical access for such probes, the intravenous line, was, for a long time, an unfulfilled clinical desire. only recently, the microeye system of probe scientific ltd. (coventry, uk) enabled continuous, automated monitoring of substances in the circulating blood stream without withdrawing blood from the patient by applying an intravenous microdialysis catheter (http:// www.probescientific.com/microeye/). many companies are currently working on different poct-suitable dna-amplification techniques (e.g., the quantitative detection of the influenza a panel or of enterovirus strains). 3.2.6.1. nanosphere (northbrook, il, usa). the verigene system uses 50-nm gold-nanoparticle-probe technology for the detection of infectious dna or rna. the probe technology uses the change in optical properties of these gold nanoparticles that occurs when two or more nanoparticles are brought into close proximity. the wavelength of light scattered from the surface of the particles is within the visible range and can easily be detected. details of the distancedependent optical properties of gold nanoparticles are portrayed in fig. 3 . 3.2.6.2. enigma (salisbury, wiltshire, uk). this company is working on providing the next generation of integrated and automated real-time pcr-based diagnostics systems. 3.2.6.3. dxna (st. george, ut, usa). a mobile poct technology (genestat) provides rt-pcr-based detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) or highly pathogenic avian influenza. 3.2.6.4. idaho technology (salt lake city, ut, usa). the filmarray system is a user-friendly automated multiplex pcr. 3.2.6.5. iquum (marlborough, ma, usa). the liat analyzer offers an innovative lab-in-a-tube platform for detection and genotyping of dna/rna viruses and bacteria. a number of novel parameters for poct applications are under discussion. potentially interesting à but still clinically unevaluated à new markers for poct applications are as follows. 3.3.1. ngal. neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (ngal) tests for acute renal failure [25, 26] . 3.3.2. galectin-3. this b-galactoside-binding protein tests for fibrosis and adverse cardiac remodeling [27, 28] . copeptin. this c-terminal residue of proavp is for early diagnosis of myocardial infarction [29, 30] . the combination of placental growth factor (pigf), soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sflt-1) [31] [32] [33] , and endoglin are for early diagnosis of preeclampsia [32, 34] . many of the possibilities of extending the application of poct depend on the wishes, the needs and the practicalities arising from using poct, as well as the advantages and the disadvantages for the patient. many people should be involved in this discussion: clinical and laboratory medical personnel, doctors in practice, political and regulatory authorities, state and private health insurers, industry and, not least, the patient. further-more, applications of poct must be scientifically grounded, evidence based {e.g., via outcome analysis, which has only partly been the case to date [9] } and financially viable. financial viability is strongly associated with the respective national reimbursement system for the various tests, which is, in most countries, mainly a question of healthcare politics. the quality of poct can be assured only through a poct-coordination system, in which the clinical laboratory plays a pivotal role. all poct activities should be discussed and agreed upon between the clinics and the clinical laboratory [35] . there are many examples of fruitful cooperation even today. however, a future necessity will be the more structured search protocol for a new poct method with agreement on the core laboratory method so that the clinical colleagues can assume clinical acceptability of the result variations caused by the poct method. new rules are needed for assessing agreement on a certain analyte result between two different methodologies [36] . in some analytical cases (e.g., step b: the dna probes are hybridized to a dna target in solution. when they are spotted onto the glass slide (step c) these hybridized gold nanoparticles scatter with h · m 2 . the plasmon efffect induces a red light shift with m 2 < m 1 . the scheme presented is in accordance with [48] . blood-glucose or prothrombin-time monitoring), errorgrid analysis can be used to determine cut-offs where differences between central laboratory and poct results may impact clinical decisions [37] . novel statistical approaches are yet to be defined. data management of the poct results is also fundamental to quality [38] . tight surveillance of poct data can show error trends before they affect the results. however, a prerequisite for this is comprehensive connectivity of all poct systems used within a hospital-wide network. newer poct devices have data-storage functions that can collect key information at the time the test is performed and later transmit the result together with the internal quality-control data to a server-based poct data manager software linked to the information system of the hospital. recently developed connectivity standards (e.g., poct1-a) enable different poct devices to share a common interface. poct data-management software programs can be categorized into proprietary and non-proprietary. examples of the first category are cobas it 1000 from roche, radiance from radiometer or rapidcomm from siemens healthcare. non-proprietary software solutions in the eu are pocelerator from conworx (berlin, germany), or, in the usa, quick-linc from telcor (lincoln, ne, usa) [39] . wireless real-time communication of test results and quality data will become a reality in the near future [40] . the number of patients requiring inpatient treatment in a hospital, together with the length of their stay, is likely to decline further in the near future -to the advantage of outpatient treatment and patient observation in their home environment. the importance of poct will increase in these areas. in outpatient care, it is clear what advantage immediate diagnostic and therapeutic decisions offers: the patient may not need to be further investigated. an enlargement of the current parameter spectrum is also important for the doctor in practice; here, in addition to the tests now available [41] , a means of identifying infectious agents would be required. home-care will be extended -apart from glucose and inr monitoring -when new tests for chronic diseases become readily available. the most important trend in this context is termed ''personalized medicine''. in this case, chronic diseases (e.g., diabetes or atherosclerosis) would be diagnosed earlier than by traditional clinical diagnosis, which is focused on the patientõs clinical signs and symptoms. the therapeutic strategies would then be tailored to each patient individually, thus improving the results of treatment (fig. 4) . ''telemedicine'' is increasingly important in this area. instruments used to monitor the patient can, in the right circumstances, send the data obtained directly to the relevant medical service point, which can intervene (e.g., when critical values are exceeded). the effectiveness of home monitoring and thus patient safety are improved. though poct may be used in principle at ''any'' locale, its use today is mainly centered on various areas of the hospital, general practitioners and patient self-monitoring of glucose and inr. above and beyond this, other potential uses have been discussed, or have indeed been, albeit mostly in small numbers, already realized. these include: mobile emergency paramedical care (blood mobiles, mobiles for public events); transport vehicles (e.g., ambulances and helicopters); sport medicine or competitive sport; outbreaks of disease and catastrophes [42, 43] ; remote areas, ''third world'' countries; military use; at the pharmacy; prisons; alternative-medicine practitioners; corporate healthcare operations; nursing homes; veterinary medicine; fitness studios; and, home healthcare in many cases, the equipment currently available, as well as the spectrum of parameters, is only partly suitable; but, future developments will raise the acceptance level and therefore the use of poct in these specific areas. the availability of medical treatment to the population as a whole is particularly important in developing countries. the current western systems (e.g., structured around a large central hospital) are largely unsuitable; rather a decentralized health system offers the most effective means. in this case, a decentralized diagnostic process with poct systems can play a very useful part. there have been a few successful movements in this direction (e.g., in reserves of the australian aborigines) [44] . however, widespread use of the currently available systems is hindered by costs, complexity and unreliability under extreme conditions of heat or humidity. the parameters offered often do not meet those required in these situations. the american national institute of biomedical imaging and bioengineering (nibib) has therefore begun co-operation with india, the aim of which is to develop devices, which are suitable for use at the point of need [45] . the international council for standardization in hematology (icsh) is working on a set of guidelines, which will be applicable worldwide for poct standardization in hematology and which can also be used in developing countries [46] . specialized, novel rapid microbiological tests must be developed to recognize the common infective agents in these countries. the bill and melinda gates foundation has sponsored research in this direction in order to establish a simple poct application for aids patients. this so-called cd4 initiative should make it possible to count the cd4 positive t-lymphocytes in hiv-infected patients, with a view to better control of anti-retroviral therapy. the value of poct in epidemic disease in developing countries can be demonstrated in the following example. tuberculosis treatment is hampered by slow, insensitive diagnostic methods, particularly for the detection of drug-resistant forms. an early diagnosis is essential to reduce mortality and to interrupt transmission, but the insufficient healthcare infrastructure in poor countries limits their accessibility and effect. boehme et al. [47] assessed the performance of the automated molecular identification of mycobacterium tuberculosis (mtb) and the testing of resistance to rifampin (rif) on the genexpert mtb/rif system (mentioned above), applying sputum samples of patients from peru, azerbaijan, south africa, and india. as a result, the authors stated that the mtb/rif test provided sensitive detection of tuberculosis and rifampin resistance directly from untreated sputum in less than 2 h. the test was specific in 604 of 609 patients without tuberculosis (99.2%). as compared with phenotypic drug-susceptibility testing, mtb/rif testing correctly identified 200 of 205 patients (97.6%) with rifampinresistant bacteria and 504 of 514 (98.1%) with rifampin-sensitive bacteria. the device is definitely applicable in rural areas without being compromised by a lack of analytical quality. all future projects should take into account that poct can in principle be brought simply to the patient, but not necessarily the expertise of the laboratory doctor. it is difficult to imagine how complex panels of analyses (e.g., tumor markers or genetic susceptibility tests), supplied via poct, could be interpreted without adequate technical expertise and knowledge. it is therefore vital, in the interest of the patient, that poct is employed by laboratory medical personnel who can suggest appropriate tests and carry them out satisfactorily. a specific problem involves the problem of quality assessment. the wide use of poct in areas outside of the standard hospital environment or by general practitioners can lead to new problems in quality assurance. it is clear today, that use of poct without relevant trained personnel leads to unsatisfactory results and that the end-user has to rely on a competent laboratory medical advisory service, at least when difficulties arise. further development of the relevant equipment is likely to result in inbuilt quality control, so that the current procedures for internal and external controls will become obsolete. however, the problems of end use by untrained or unsupervised personnel will increase, particularly with respect to pre-analysis (patient preparation, sample acquisition, recognition of invalid samples) and post-analysis (documentation, data protection) [1] . this is notably the case where poct is used in areas far from a laboratory (e.g., developing countries). it is an important task for laboratory medicine as a whole to make it clear that poct analysis that meets the medical requirements rests on more than reliable analysis systems. principles and practice of point-of-care testing point-of-care testing key: cord-269821-j4w084u2 authors: gaupp, franziska title: extreme events in a globalized food system date: 2020-06-19 journal: one earth doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.06.001 sha: doc_id: 269821 cord_uid: j4w084u2 our food systems are complex and globally interdependent and are presently struggling to feed the world’s population. as population grows and the world becomes increasingly unstable and subject to shocks, it is imperative that we acknowledge the systemic nature of our food system and enhance its resilience. after the prevalence of undernourishment had declined over the last decades, since 2015, the number of people who suffer from hunger is increasing again. today, more than 820 million people in the world are hungry, and around 2 billion people do not have regular access to nutritious and sufficient food. 1 a growing and more affluent population will further increase the global demand for food and create stresses on land, for example, through deforestation. additionally, food production and agricultural productivity are further affected by an increasingly changing and variable climate, including extreme events, which further undermine the resilience of our systems. we are facing increased frequency, intensity, and duration of climate and extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, and floods. 2 increased temperatures have contributed to land degradation and desertification in many parts of the world. erratic precipitation patterns and unpredictable rainy seasons increase uncertainty about planting times and can lead to crop failure. changing land conditions through human actions on the regional scale, such as deforestation and urban development, can further accentuate these negative impacts at a local level. given that extreme events are expected to further increase through the 21 st century, we need to increase the stability of the global food system. increases in global temperatures will affect processes involved in land degradation (such as vegetation loss or soil erosion) and food security (through crop losses and instabilities in the food supply). a 1.5 c global warming is projected to lead to high risks of food-supply instabilities, including periodic food shocks across regions and spikes in food pricing, and our current trajectory has us on course to significantly exceed this threshold. although climate and climate extremes affect our ability to produce food, food and nutrition security is more than just agricultural productivity. today's food system is globalized and consists of highly interdependent social, technical, financial, economic, and environmental subsystems. it is characterized by increasingly complex trade networks, an increasingly efficient supply chain with market power located in fewer and fewer hands, and increased coordination across interdependent sectors via information technology. between 1992 and 2009, trade connections for wheat and rice doubled and trade flows increased by 42% and 90% respectively. furthermore, market power along the global food supply chains is consolidating. the three largest seed suppliers increased their combined market share from 10% in the 1990s to 55% in 2015. in the uk, the three largest supermarkets hold a market share of 60%. although these emergent network structures of commodity supply chains increase gains in economic efficiency, they lead to systemic instability susceptible to shocks. trade networks are more interconnected and interdependent than ever, and research has shown that they can be intrinsically more fragile than if each network worked independently because they create pathways along which damaging events can spread globally and rapidly. 3 it is true that these trade networks could, for instance, help connect local producers to global markets and increase their incomes, but there is a risk that increasing network densities and complexities might lead to food insecurity in one part of the system as a result of the food system's inherent response to a shock rather than as a result of the initial shock itself. furthermore, local events might trigger consequential failures in other parts of the system through path dependencies and strong correlations and thus lead to amplification of the initial shock through cascading effects. a shock in the integrated global food supply chains can lead to ripple effects in political and social systems. the 2010 droughts in wheat-producing countries such as china, russia, and ukraine, for instance, led to major crop failures, pushing up food prices in the global markets. this in turn contributed to deep civil unrest in egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, as people were facing food shortages and helped the 2011 revolution to spread across the country. although it has been shown that global economic integration continues to strengthen our resilience to smaller shocks through trade adjustments, the current network structure and functional relations create higher vulnerabilities to so-called systemic risks. given how interconnected the food system is globally, taking a systems approach is vital to help us ensure food security. doing so requires an understanding of the systemic characteristics and vulnerabilities of the global interconnected food system. although one extreme event and the consequent crop losses in a single production region can be buffered by highyielding harvests in other places, grain storage, and trade, multiple-breadbasket failure is a growing reason for concern. correlated or compound climate and ll weather events (a combination of correlated climate drivers that surpass the coping capacity of the underlying systems) on both local and global scales could trigger systemic risks in the global food system. locally, non-linear dependencies between heat and drought conditions have been shown to have severe consequences for crop production in specific breadbasket regions, such as the mediterranean. on a global scale, largescale atmospheric circulation patterns, such as el niñ o-southern oscillation or rossby waves, can cause simultaneous extreme heat and rainfall events in different parts of the world. in summer 2018, simultaneous heat extremes in the northern hemisphere were associated with amplified rossby waves, resulting in reduced crop production in central north america, eastern europe, and eastern asia. 4 because those regions include important areas of crop production, such teleconnections have the potential to cause multiple, simultaneous breadbasket failures, posing a risk to global food security. if climate extremes are additionally co-occurring with other hazards, the systemic vulnerability of our global food system becomes apparent. this can currently be observed in east africa and yemen, where the population is fighting against a desert locust upsurge while experiencing conflicts, climate extremes, and coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19), all of which further constrain surveillance and control operations in the locust crisis. the combination of those multiple hazards has led to warnings that in the second half of 2020, 25 million people will experience acute food insecurity. 5 the climate-agri-food system is characterized by dynamic interactions across spatial and temporal scales, ranging from global to local and from shocks such as heat waves to long-term stressors such as biodiversity loss. nonlinear dynamics in the climate system can lead to rapid and irreversible changes if the system surpasses a certain threshold. one of those so-called climate ''tipping points'' that might have major consequences for europe's climate and lead to significant losses of crop yields is the weakening and potential collapse of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation (amoc). 6 greenland melting and arctic warming are driving an influx of fresh water with lower salinity and density into the north atlantic, which is weakening the overturning circulation, an important part of global heat and salt transport by the ocean. if amoc weakened and even collapsed in the coming decade as a consequence of further warming, europe's seasonality would strongly increase and lead to harsher winters and hotter and drier summers. this is projected to reduce global agricultural productivity and to increase food prices. not all shocks to the globalized food system are directly linked to agricultural productivity or climate. the complexity and inter-connectedness and vulnerability of our globalized food system have become painfully evident in recent weeks after the emergence of a different type of shock to the system: a global pandemic. having started as a health crisis, covid-19 quickly trickled through the political, social, economic, technological, and financial systems. in the food system, lockdown measures and trade and business interruptions all over the world led to cascading effects that are projected to trigger food crises in many parts of the world. although harvests have been successful and food reserves are available, interruptions to global food supply chains have led to food shortages in many places. products cannot be moved from farms to markets, processing plants, or ports. food is rotting in fields because transport disruptions have made it impossible to move food from the farm to the consumer. at the same time, many people have lost their income, and food has become unaffordable to them. the world food programme has warned that by the end of the year, 130 million additional people could face famine. in the fight against covid-19, borders have been closed, and a lack of local production has led to price spikes in some places. in south sudan, for example, wheat and cassava prices have increased by 62% and 41%, respectively, since february. 7 in the coming months, planting, harvesting, and transporting food are likely to further face logistical barriers, which will again exacerbate food shortages and drive up prices. a lack of food access and the related grievance could then lead to further cascading effects, such as food riots and collective violence. besides compound shocks, non-linear dynamics, and cascading events, the complexity of the global food system entails feedback loops that further amplify initial shocks. as a consequence of covid-19, the fear of food shortages and price spikes due to global trade interruptions has led to export restrictions on food in several countries. at the time of writing, 11 countries have active, binding export restrictions on food, as shown by the international food policy research institute's food policy tracker. 8 russia, the world's biggest wheat exporter, announced in april that it will halt exports until july, when farmers will start to bring in grain from the new harvest. other wheat suppliers, such as kazakhstan and ukraine, have also capped sales. importers such as egypt, on the other hand, are hoarding crops in fear of shortages, creating feedback loops that will further drive up prices. especially in lowincome countries, this might make food unaffordable for large parts of the population and increase the threats of food insecurity. the visible and measurable systemic characteristics of the global food system are complemented by hidden links and consequences that become visible only after a shock has hit the system. the current pandemic has revealed structural weaknesses in our food system. little storage and just-in-time supply chains have increased economic efficiency but led to systemic instability. 9 just how vulnerable and easy to disrupt the supply chains in some parts of the world are has become evident in the last several weeks. further food-system interdependences that were previously ignored but are becoming apparent now include the role of schools in providing nutritious food to children. the world food programme estimates that globally, 368 million school children miss out on meals that they would normally receive in schools because classes are shut down. 10 if we want to make the global food system resilient to future shocks, we need to pay attention to both quantifiable and uncertain systemic risks and foodsystem interdependencies. to address the challenges of a globally interconnected, complex food system that is projected to be hit by more frequent and severe extreme events, we need to take a systems approach and one earth 2, june 19, 2020 519 ll acknowledge the systemic characteristics of the global food system (figure 1) . we need better food-system models that can account for systemic risk characteristics and increase our understanding of non-linear dynamics, tipping points, feedbacks, dependence structures, and adaptive behaviors. 11 we need transdisciplinary approaches that bring together different disciplines as well as other forms of expertise, such as knowledge of local practitioners. quantitative and qualitative methods need to be combined, and different model types need to be integrated to link climate hazards with technological and civilizational risks. artificial intelligence and new machine-learning tools can improve our understanding of the food system's complexity but must be complemented by qualitative assessment, such as perceptions, social concerns, or socio-economic impacts. robust data and statistics that are accurate, timely, disaggregated, and accessible are needed for monitoring and early warning systems. systemic risk and systemic opportunities need to be incorporated into the design of food-related policies. 12 effective governance needs to consider the interconnectedness among different parts of the global food system. a network perspective that pays attention to the ll interdependent actors and nodes is required. 13 one solution could be a systemic-risk transaction tax as suggested for the financial markets. 14 individual actors (such as large trading companies or retailers) that increase systemic risks in the network will be taxed proportionally to their marginal contribution to the overall systemic risks. the tax can be seen as insurance for the public against costs arising from cascading failure. additionally, we need global collaboration to work toward better management of trade barriers to ensure that food value chains function even in moments of crises to prevent price spikes and provide ''all people, at all times, [with] physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for a healthy and active life.'' 15 more shocks are likely to hit our global food system in the future, unleashing the potential for systemic risks to cascade through the system and to lead to major impacts and system breakdowns. these include projected increases in simultaneous climate extremes in breadbasket regions, crop pests, and other, unexpected shocks. if we want to avoid major threats to food security, we need to take a systems perspective in analyzing, managing, and governing the global food system. the state of food security and nutrition in the world: safeguarding against economic slowdowns and downturns special report on climate change and land (intergovernmental panel on climate change globally networked risks and how to respond amplified rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions fao makes gains in the fight against desert locusts in east africa and yemen but threat of a food security crisis remains, fao news article running amoc in the farming economy soaring prices, rotting crops: coronavirus triggers global food crisis covid-19 food trade policy tracker coronavirus: rationing based on health, equity and decency now neededfood system expert, the conversation global monitoring of school meals during covid-19 school closures modelling food security: bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale governance of systemic risks for disaster prevention and mitigation united nations office for disaster risk reduction elimination of systemic risk in financial networks by means of a systemic risk transaction tax global strategic framework for food security and nutrition the author would like to thank the editor and michael obersteiner for valuable suggestions and comments in the development and improvement of the manuscript. the author's work is supported by the receipt project (grant agreement 820712) and by eit climate-kic's ''forging resilient regions deep demonstration.'' key: cord-223669-hs5pfg4b authors: song, jinyue; gu, tianbo; feng, xiaotao; ge, yunjie; mohapatra, prasant title: blockchain meets covid-19: a framework for contact information sharing and risk notification system date: 2020-07-20 journal: nan doi: nan sha: doc_id: 223669 cord_uid: hs5pfg4b covid-19 causes a global epidemic infection, which is the most severe infection disaster in human history. in the absence of particular medication and vaccines, tracing and isolating the source of infection is the best option to slow the spread of the virus and reduce infection and death rates among the population. there are three main obstacles in the process of tracing the infection: 1) patient's electronic health record is stored in a traditional centralized database that could be stolen and tampered with the infection data, 2) the confidential personal identity of the infected user may be revealed to a third party or organization, 3) existing infection tracing systems do not trace infections from multiple dimensions. either the system is location-based or individual-based tracing. in this work, we propose a global covid-19 information sharing system that utilizes the blockchain, smart contract, and bluetooth technologies. the proposed system unifies location-based and bluetooth-based contact tracing services into the blockchain platform, where the automatically executed smart contracts are deployed so that users can get consistent and non-tamperable virus trails. the anonymous functionality provided by the blockchain and bluetooth technology protects the user's identity privacy. with our proposed analysis formula for estimating the probability of infection, users can take measures to protect themselves in advance. we also implement a prototype system to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of our approach. until today, coronavirus has infected more than 11.5 million people and caused nearly 530,000 deaths [3] . in particular, the united states has become the country with the largest number of known infections [4] . every country has its own privacy policy to share information about infected people. it is challenging to share information across the world with reliable privacy protection since different countries have their own privacy policy to share the information of infected people. information sharing in a centralized manner, such as mit, apple, and google who announced their tracking solutions by storing users' personal data in cloud [1] [2] , is highly relying on users' trust. once the personal data has been uploading to the cloud, users generally cannot control the potential abuse. if a comprehensive data security solution is missing, the private user data in the cloud may be hacked for any other harmful purposes. as a global organization, the world health organization (who) collaborates with the governments around the world to share information and enhance the management of epidemic prevention. however, who is losing trust from some countries and cannot obtain sufficient support. some other governments may conceal, falsely report, or hinder from reporting epidemic information. these may create a gaping security hole for global epidemic prevention. to this end, there is no way for individuals to share their information and protect their data privacy simultaneously. government departments and organizations may access the health medical data of all people, and go beyond the scope of their responsibility and duty. for example, some government health departments may locate the personal identity of infected patients, and then enforce them in a centralized isolation shelter, resulting in secondary infections, and restricting personal freedom. actually, apple and google will share the infected individuals' information with health authorities [2] , which means people's personal data privacy and human rights are being violated without their knowledge. currently, there are two separate tracing systems existing: location-based and individual-based contact tracing. locationbased contact tracing always provides a centralized service and records if there are infections in the given locations without the knowledge of infection movement [5] . the individual-based tracing systems only focus on the person-to-person contact via bluetooth [1] [2] , and they do not have a record about where users get infected. who states that the virus could survive on materials surfaces [6] [7] , so the virus has an effect on the people daily activity environment. but the individual-based system cannot trace and estimate the covid-19 effect on the given location. our proposed system combines the locationbased and individual-based systems together for users to access the public area infection status and lookup personal contact tracing history at the same time. our lab already deploys the centralized location-based tracing system [5] and we may merge our two systems together for a future research. blockchain can natively provide the decentralized service to share the information and protect the privacy of people [8] . user information can be packaged in transactions and stored in the blockchain in each computing node. even if the data of one node is manipulated, it will not affect the data's consistency because the manipulated data will not pass the verification by other nodes. a smart contract is a program that runs on the blockchain platform; it can execute instructions in a distributed manner, and maintain output consistency. in our system, the smart contract allows the user to check-in at each location and query the blockchain database for the location infection status. even though mit, apple, and google provide virus contact tracking solutions, the tracking service still brings the following new challenges. the infection transmission factors considered by current existing virus tracking service systems are too simple. the virus is not only carried by the infected person but also remains in the environment, so the user will still be infected by the virus attached to the object surface. therefore, our proposed system not only records the user's contact history but also tracks the user's travel trajectory. protecting user data privacy about his personal health information in a public network is also very challenging. traditional methods of hiding users' personal information, such as removing names, addresses, and social security numbers, cannot fully protect user privacy. so we embedded the function of bluetooth randomization address in the contact tracking service of the system. besides, after users uploading health data and identity information, they lose the ownership and the ability to control the data. apple and google provide anonymous services to users, but the infected patients will be reported to the government health department [2] . we choose the blockchain database as the storage method for the system, combined with the address randomization function of bluetooth, only users can identify and verify their health data and personal information stored in the database. we design and propose a blockchain-based covid-19 contact information sharing and risk notification system that can be used by the world to take preventive measures against epidemics. this system implements the following main functions with smart contracts and bluetooth embedded: (1) users can record their visited location information and personal contact history to the blockchain database. (2) users can update their infection status. (3) the system can update location infection status. (4) the system can notify the users that had been exposed the infected people or infected locations before. (5) the system can estimate the probability of being infected for users based on his location visiting history and personal contacting records. for example, a shopping mall can use our system to detect if this building is infected and the daily infection status. the customers can also query the database to gain the mall infection record before their shopping. the status of an individual is written to the blockchain and cannot be changed. our system is able to protect privacy. we consider a variety of privacy that can be protected by our system. users can regularly change their cellphone bluetooth mac addresses and encode these addresses to virtual ids. then, it is hard to trace individual identity from their public information written in the blockchain. our system will not trace personal identity or report personal health information to authorities. we have the following contributions. • we propose a hierarchical smart contract group in this system, to manage the infection status of each location and transportation. this design reduces the average operation cost and request processing time in the system. • we build and merge location-based and individual person based virus contact tracing and notification system, which tracks the virus infection activity from higher dimensions. • we embed a blockchain database in the system to ensure the safety of users' data and this design avoids the problem that health information may be tampered and stolen in a centralized database. • our system uses a weak random bluetooth address design to generate the user's identity information. this design not only protects the user's privacy but also reduces the congestion of data transmission within the blockchain network. • we propose a mathematical formula for the possibility of user infection, which quantifies the user's contact history and traveling history from multiple dimensions and thus provides a basis for the system's notification service. • we propose an optimal equation for the operating costs of the system, simulate person-to-person contact and user check-in activities in our system, and evaluate the system performance based on the different quantity of users and smart contracts. roadmap: this paper is organized as the following sections: section ii presents the system overview and system components. section iii formulize challenging problems for our system. section iv describes the system design from the perspective of four layers. section v shows how we simulate and evaluate system performance. the last two sections vi and vii present the related work in smart contract tracing and conclusion for this paper. our system can track the locations visited by users and the personal contact history of users with others. when a user updates himself infected, our system will notify other users who have been in direct or indirect contact with him, and provide an assessment of the probability of infection. in a general scenario, the user may visit many public places, such as offices, restaurants, shopping centers, or gyms in one day, so he can use the designed contact tracing service to upload his visiting records including the time and location to our system. then, our system will store the visiting records in decentralized blockchain databases. also, users can check the infection status of a certain location before his visit to ensure safety. when a user reports that his infected status, a smart contract group embedded in our system will update the virus infection status of the locations and transportation that the user visited and took based on his visiting records. our system helps users to track the history of their indirect contact with others because the virus can land on the surfaces of the objects and continue to remain active [9] , and even if the user does not have face-to-face contact with an infected patient, there is still a possibility of being infected after he touches the surface of the virus-contaminated object. our system uses the bluetooth functionality in users' mobile devices to automatically detect the others and then upload their contact records to decentralized blockchain databases. the range of bluetooth detection is relatively small, which is about 5 to 10 meters [10] . so, when the user's mobile phone detects the bluetooth signals, it indicates that there are people nearby. when a user reports himself as infected status, our system will broadcast his infection status and alert other users to check if they have close contact with this infected user. it is important to trace the direct contact recorded by bluetooth because viruses can attach to water vapor and spread through the airborne [11] , and users may be infected by other people in a close range [12] . therefore, uploading users contact history records will help them to track the infection transmission path of the virus and assess users' probability of being infected. our proposed system provides users with this integrated mobile service, which contains the following functionalities: probability of infection: according to the manual for wto medical staff [13] [6] , healthy people could be infected directly and indirectly, where the direct factor is person-toperson contact in a close distance and the indirect factor is that the virus surviving on the surface of the object spread by the patient infects the healthy people after they touch the surface. so the system will evaluate the user's risk from these factors based on the feature data extracted from location tracing and person-to-person contact tracing, like, the length of contact time between users, the spatial distance between users, and the materials of objects in public places. notification of infection: after the estimation of infection probability for this user, the notification function sends a warning alert to him, which reminds him to prepare for virus infection in advance or to seek medical help, before his health condition gets worse. another scenario is when a user reports his infected status, our system will broadcast his virtual identity to other users. then, these users who receive the notification will query the local database to see if he has had any direct or indirect contact with the infected patient and calculate the infection probability. in our system, three main technologies guarantee data security and personal privacy: decentralized database in the blockchain, automatic execution of smart contracts, and randomization of bluetooth mac addresses. (a) data security: our design guarantees that user data will not be manipulated. the blockchain protocol stipulates that the current block will always use the hash value generated from the previous block, so if an attacker manipulates a transaction in a block, he must tamper with all the previous blocks data to ensure his tampering, before the next new block to be mined, verified and accepted by other users. this computing workload is extremely large, so it is almost impossible for an attacker to forcibly manipulate the blockchain data. moreover, users in the network can detect violations of smart contracts, and such attempts to violate the contract are verified to be invalid and those malicious transactions will not be stored in the blockchain. our system contains a smart contract group to handle all user check-in requests for public locations and transportation. since smart contracts have the properties of being unmodifiable, requiring no supervision, and being automatically executed, smart contracts with distributed features ensure that user data cannot be tampered with, or produce malicious results. so, this design ensures the security of user data. decentralized blockchain databases and smart contracts also enhance the usability of our system. since no individual or centralized entity can control all data, there will be no smart contract or system crash due to malicious operations done by some users. (b) identity privacy: we use bluetooth technology to protect user data privacy. the mac addresses uploaded by users are randomly generated by the bluetooth protocol [14] . although these addresses are stored in the blockchain database, each user's mac address is random and is not fixedly bound to the mobile device. it guarantees that users will not be tracked and located by the addresses provided in the network. from another perspective, bluetooth technology frequently replaces the user's mac address [15] , which means a user will gradually use multiple different mac addresses in a unit of time. other people in the surroundings have no way to associate the mac address to this user through investigation. the frequent randomized mac address protects the user's privacy in real life. in order to reduce the operating overhead and internet congestion at the system level, we choose weak randomized generation of bluetooth mac address. users upload their random mac addresses to the system, which is measured by ethereum gas [8] in the system overheads. the larger quantity of random mac addresses, the better privacy protection users could have. but the larger quantity will lead to higher operating costs and network congestion. therefore, we need to find a balance between a sufficiently large quantity of bluetooth random addresses for privacy protection, and a relatively small quantity for lower system operating cost. we highlight four problems: latency, throughput, operating cost, and probability estimation for our proposed covid-19 information sharing and risk notification system and these problems are described by mathematical formulas at a highlevel. in our system, latency is a time difference ∆t about how long the user's latest check-in request can be processed completely by smart contracts and stored in the databases. we consider that latency is affected by the following five factors: 1. the number of users |u| in the system, 2. the frequency freq of users sending requests, 3. the size of one block |b|, 4. the height of the smart contract group scg.height, and 5. the length of the waiting queue |queue| of the smart contract. u includes not only users already exist in the system, but also new users who enter the system within a unit time. the total number of users and the frequency freq of user's check-in determine the total number of user requests per unit time in the system. if the number of user check-in requests exceeds the processing capacity of the smart contract per unit time, the user's requests will enter the waiting queue of the smart contract, which increases the request processing time. we introduce the variable of block size |b|, because it is one of the bottlenecks of the blockchain's development towards high throughput and low latency [16] . the height of the smart contract group scg.height and the length of the queue |queue| in each contract are also important factors that affect latency. in our proposed hierarchical structure, the smart contracts at the same level will not affect the efficiency of processing requests between each other. the requests received by the smart contracts at the current level are all from the higher-level smart contracts, so the hierarchical structure we propose is a tree structure, whose height is described as lg(|scg|). as mentioned before, the smart contract will put the requests that have not been processed in time in the waiting queue. if the number of unprocessed requests is greater than the length of the queue, these requests will be abandoned. then the smart contract needs to wait for other nodes to synchronize the transaction operations and data. this brings a longer latency. we thus establish the latency formula: where we have a series of transition functions δs provided to determine the latency, latency = φ(δ u,freq , δ |b| , δ scg.height,|queue| ). we propose that the three polynomial δs are combined by function φ. in our system, throughput tp refers to the number of user requests that the system can completely handle in a unit time. it can intuitively show the system's ability to process user requests. the greater the throughput, the stronger the processing capacity of the system. throughput is limited by latency, packet loss rate rate pl and bandwidth bw. as described in the previous section, five factors in the system can affect the latency, but the rate pl and bw depends on the network conditions at the user end. therefore, the throughput can be defined as follows: where θ is the transition function with three arguments to determine the tp. operating cost is another important problem we consider. reasonable operating costs determine that our system can serve users stably, and support its operation for a long time. the operating cost in the system is measured by the ethereum gas [8] , which includes the following five influencing factors: location-based and bluetooth-based contact tracing services, health tracing service, the setup and operation of smart contracts. we will explain all these services and components in the next section. since the blockchain decentralized structure, users can query their local blockchain database without consuming gas and we do not include the cost of the database in the operating cost calculation. we consider the number of users and requests have a polynomial relationship with the cost of three tracing services. the setup cost of a smart contract is fixed, but its operating costs will increase with the increase of users. so we have the following cost formula: where loc represents location-based contact tracing service, bt represents bluetooth-based contact tracing service, heal represents health tracing service, and op represents all the operations in the smart contracts like adding a user checkin and getting a location infection status. we define λ to be the transition function to calculate the cost combined by the four factors. then, we measure the average and variance values of the operating cost, which represent the system's stability in an optimal condition. here are the formulas when the system has five factors at minimal cost: args var = arg min var(λ(loc, bt, heal, setup, op)) (4) args avg = arg min avg(λ(loc, bt, heal, setup, op)) (5) therefore, we can provide the optimal arguments with a minimal system cost, which is shown as: args optimal = mincost(args var , args avg , ζ) where we introduce penalty function ζ to adjust five arguments and get the global optimal sets for the cost calculation. in the previous section, we briefly describe the functionality of estimating the infection probability in the health tracing service. since the ground truth data contains only binary values representing infected or not, without a percentage value for the probability of infection, we introduce the statistical logistic regression analysis method with iteratively reweighted least squares (irls) [17] to maximum likelihood estimation and find the optimal arguments. we assume that the data set is relatively clean and there are no outstanding outliers. ground truth dataset contains n user data points (x i , y i ), i = 1, ..., n, where x i is the independent variable tuple with (rssi, ∆t b , ∆t c and ms) and y i is the dependent variable with binary values {0, 1}. we conclude five elements in the tuple affecting the infection probability: • rssi is the received (bluetooth) signal strength index, which represents the distance between users [18] . • ∆t b is bluetooth contact time interval, which indicates how long users detect each other's bluetooth signal from a short distance. • ∆t c is a overlapping time calculated based on two checkin time points t i and t j , which infers the time when two users enter the location, and ∆t c = |t it j |. • ms is a discrete value in set ms representing a virus residual active time period on a material surface [9] . so we have: where β is the set of parameters {β 0 , β 1 , ..., β 4 } for these five arguments including the constant. then, we can use the estimation method irls to get the fitted model and arguments: args optimal [w] = irls(x, y, w, µ) where w is arguments tuple (rssi, ∆t b , ∆t c , ms) and µ is the predicated value from formula (7). in this section, we will define and explain our system components from the perspective of the four layers in the system, and the interactions within the contact tracing mechanisms. our trace and notification system contains four layers for users to trace person-to-person contact via bluetooth, check-in locations, and lookup infection status with other users on the blockchain platform. fig. 1 shows four layers: user interaction layer, mobile service layer, smart contract service layer, and data storage layer. this system provides two primary services for trace and notification: bluetooth-based personal contact trace service and location-based contact trace service. both of the two services are developed on the blockchain platform, and the data generated from these two services is stored in the distributed blockchain databases. the locationbased contact trace is coordinated by the smart contracts in the third layer and the bluetooth-based contact trace is handled in the second layer. (a) user interaction layer at the user interaction layer, we have two entities: user u and location l. users are people who hold bluetooth-enabled mobile phones and have two health statue types: healthy users u normal and infected users u infected . users access to mobile service in the second layer and update their health status in the system based on their medical reports. we assume that users always honestly upload their infection status to our system. a location l is a public place or transportation that users often visit in their daily lives, such as office, restaurant, stadium, bus, and even airplane. location l also has two status types, uninfected location l normal and infected location l infected . if an infected user u infected visited this location, then this location l would be marked as l infected by the system. (b) mobile service layer mobile service layer is the the core handler in our system and it interacts directly with the other three layers. mobile service ms is our proposed mobile phone application in this layer. cooperating with other layers, the mobile service layer is an interface layer for providing users with services, including the following two aspects: contact tracing service based on bluetooth or location, and health tracing service supported by data provided from the blockchain database. contact tracing services include location-based and bluetooth-based, focusing on indirect and direct contact between users. the bluetooth-based service is an integral part of the client's mobile phone service which embeds the bluetooth function. it can sniff other surrounding users' bluetooth devices, and broadcast its own bluetooth random mac address macaddr as a virtual identity. this bluetooth-based service can exchange its user randomized mac address with other users via bluetooth, and then packet received other users' mac addresses macaddrs, time interval timeinterval of the interaction and received signal strength index rssi into the transaction tx, which is broadcast to the blockchain network. in addition, when the user receives other's infection notification from the broadcast transaction tx, our mobile app will automatically query the local blockchain database for the infected user's bluetooth address, check-in information, and check whether the infected user has a direct or indirect contact with current user. the second contact tracing service is the location-based tracing. it accepts the user check-in requests req checkin s from the user interaction layer and it coordinates these requests to different smart contracts in the third layer based on the sender's location. at the same time, the infection status of this location l is affected by the user's check-in request req checkin . if the user u updates the health status as infected u infected and broadcasts it to the smart contract, the location l will be marked as infected l infected by this corresponding smart contract. these two services will be explained step by step in detail and described in mathematical formulas in the next two sections. health tracing service is the third sub-service in mobile service layer. this service has two functions: 1. broadcast user's infected status u infected to alert other users and update the infected status for the locations ls where the infected user visited. 2. estimate the probability of being infected for users prob u (infection). users us at the first layer can update their health status through this service at the second layer, packet their health status {u normal , u infected } in a transaction tx and send it to the smart contract responsible for the infection status at the third layer and broadcast it to other users on the network. once the health status of the infected person has been updated as u infected , people who had contact with the infected person will be prompted with a warning alert provided by this health tracing service. after the normal user u normal receives the warning alert, this health tracking service estimates the probability of the user being infected prob u (infection), based on the data collected from location-based and bluetooth-based tracing services contact regarding the infected person u infected . we consider there is a relationship between received (bluetooth) signal strength index rssi and infection probability p (inf ection) with covid-19. similar to apple and google's design [2] , we use the bluetooth sniff to detect if two users are in a close distance d, which can be measured by the received signal strength indication (rssi) of bluetooth [18] and the author uses low pass filter (lp f ) to reduce the errors in the measurement data. to describe the content of the article without repeating, we only quote the method based on the bluetooth signal strength index. in the following section, we will use the simplified mathematical formulas including lp f by default to reduce errors in measured data as designed. research and experiments made by mit show the covid-19 can spread by airbone [11] , which can reach 26 feet away by a sneeze [12] . so, the closer the user is to the infected person, the easier he is to be exposed to more viruses and become easier to be infected. therefore, we correlate the strength of the bluetooth signal strength with the possibility of being infected by a virus. (c) smart contract service layer the smart contract service layer is the secondary core of our system. the check-in request req checkin generated by the user's visiting location l is processed by the mobile service layer and forwarded to this smart contract service layer, where it is managed by the smart contract group. the smart contract group integrates the contracts according to the administrative hierarchy system. the top level is the smart contract at the state level contract state , followed by the county contract county , then the city contract city , and finally the smallest unit location contract location . location smart contracts contract location belong to the city-level contracts contract city to manage, city-level contracts belong to counties contract county , and county-level contracts belong to states contract state . each contract will only inherit from one superior contract, and will not belong to two different superior contracts at the same time. each location must be in one of these three states: {emptystatus, infectedstatus, cleanstatus}, and the corresponding smart contract contract location dynamically records the infection status of the location l. if an infected user u infected visits this location l, or a user who has visited this location, reports that he is infected, then this location l is considered infected by this user u infected . only after the location is cleaned, or 14 days after being infected, the location l is considered to be in a cleanstatus. in order to save the operating cost of the smart contract contract location and maintain the accuracy of the location l status record, the coming requests reqs trigger the smart contract contract location to check and update the infection status for the location l, otherwise the smart contract contract location will not actively check the infection status of the location l. this design ensures that users can get the latest location status for their requests while avoiding the operations of the smart contract. (d) data storage layer we have deployed a distributed blockchain database db in the data storage layer, and every user and computing node can be synchronized in our network to get a complete database, which is consistent with the data of others. from the perspective of data storage, the traditional centralized database stores all data [19] in one data center; the traditional distributed database stores data in multiple data centers, but each center may not have global complete data [20] . from the data management perspective, traditional databases require a central node to process read and write requests to the database, but a blockchain database does not require a central node to process read and write requests [21] [22] because all users can have the same database locally, to directly query for consistent results. in our system, the blockchain database will store all transactions in the network, including users' bluetooth contact records, check-in information of the visited locations, and the change of the user's public health status. the three tracing services mentioned above, location-based contact tracing, bluetooth-based contact tracing, and health tracing services, except location-based contact tracing requiring smart contracts to update and store infection status to the database, in the other two services, users can query the blockchain database directly for personal contacts and visiting records. current bitcoin and ethereum blockchain database design have problems such as high computational cost, and slow writing and querying data [22] , but there are existing thirdgeneration blockchain databases now whose performance, such as throughput, can be comparable to databases of visa credit card companies [23] [24] . since the third-generation blockchain database has no mature commercial development and lacks a mature platform to support the development of smart contracts, we still deploy our system on the ethereum platform for simulation and evaluation. in this section, we describe the location-based contact tracing service in detail: first, we show entities participating in the service, such as users, smart contracts, and locations; and then, we introduce the interaction activities between entities, including user's check-in a place while his visiting and the user's query of the infection status of a place before visiting. as defined in previous sections, we have location l, which represents a public place or transportation, users u with normal and infected status and smart contracts, who are in a hierarchy structure to process all users' check-in requests. in figure 2 , we illustrate location-based contact tracing service with a simplified state machine. {q, δ, initialstate, cleanstatus} where we have infectedusercheckin, infecteduserupdate, locationiscleaned, wait14days} • initialstate is the null state before the smart contract exists • cleanstatus is the accepting state first, when a user issues a check-in request req checkin through the location-based contact service at the second layer, the system checks whether there is a smart contract contract location corresponding to this location at the third layer. if the contract does not exist, the smart contract of the city contract city where the location is located will create a smart contract contract location for the location. if the contract already exists, the system goes to the next step to process the user's check-in request. in case the coming user is infected, this location enters the next state infectedstatus, otherwise, it enters the cleanstatus. then, when the location is in a state infectedstatus, either after 14 days or if it can be cleaned and disinfected, this location can transform to cleanstatus. finally, in the state cleanstatus, this location is affected by the request of the next user. if the next user is infected u infected , or his past visit is updated to be infected, then this location will return to the previous state infectedstatus. otherwise, it remains in the current cleanstatus. fig. 3 is an example of user u checking in a building in location-based contact tracing service. the check-in information about this user visiting the building, like timestamp t, geographic position geopos and health status {u normal , u infected }, is packaged in a transaction tx with the help of our proposed mobile client app in the second layer. then, the app sends the transaction tx to the smart contract group in the third layer. according to the address of the building geopos, this transaction tx is passed from the state-level contract state to the county-level contract county , to the city-level contract city , and finally transferred to the smart contract contract location corresponding to this building. then, based on the health status u infected for example, provided by the user, the location smart contract changes the infection status to l infected for the building. in this process, the transaction tx that records the user's check-in information will be saved by the blockchain database db. also, the location-based contact tracing service can help the user to get the infection status record of the location l. we need to discuss two scenarios based on whether the user has the contract location network address locally corresponding to the building for example. if the user has checked in this location before or has previously queried the smart contract of this location, the corresponding contract location address should exist in his mobile app. therefore, the user can directly send a request to the contract location network address through the mobile app to get the location infection status. if the user is interacting with this location for the first time, then he needs to get the contract network address first. with the provided the geographic position geopos of this location, the user's mobile app will query the statelevel contract state in the smart contract group, who will transfer this query request from the top level to the city-level contract city based on the provided geopos. if there is a corresponding contract location for this location, the network address of this contract will be returned to the user. otherwise, the city-level smart contract contract city will create a new contract location , and its address will be returned to the user. after receiving the location infection records from smart contract service layer, the request sender can verify the response by querying his local blockchain database for the transaction record. if the infection exists in this location l infected , our proposed mobile app will alert the user. to encourage users to use mobile services more frequently, we have developed a check-in and query incentive mechanism for users. whenever a user checks in a location or queries the corresponding location smart contract, this smart contract will return a slightly more amount of transaction fee to encourage the user to check-in or query more often. the additional fee given to the user is to support the user to use mobile services to broadcast his transaction that contains the bluetooth contact data, check-in information, and update health status. bluetooth-based contact tracing involves all entities except the smart contract group and all layers except smart contract service layer. the mobile app on the second layer packs the bluetooth contact data in the transactions, broadcasts them on the blockchain network, and saves all of them in the blockchain database. similarly, the mobile app processes realtime transactions received about the senders' health status, matches user contact records and reminds users of the danger of contact with infected persons. in the transaction, we will record four elements: a period of users detecting each other ∆t b , the detected mac addresses macaddress, mobile phone model appleinc for example, and the received signal strength index rssi. fig.1 overviews the workflow of bluetooth-based contact tracing. it helps users from the first layer to exchange randomized mac addresses with each other, and then packet the data with a timestamp and received (bluetooth) signal strength index rssi in the transaction, which is sent to the blockchain database in the data storage layer. the signal strength of different bluetooth devices will be different, so we assume that users are using the same type of apple mobile phone, which provides assumption conditions for the next section to calculate the distance between two users through signal strength. except that, this bluetooth-based service will alert users when receiving transactions containing infected health status from another user. fig. 4 shows that the mobile app in layer 2 detects surrounding users through bluetooth, recording the time interval ∆t b of direct contact of the users, the random mac address macaddr of the other user, the type of mobile device devicetype, and the range of rssi. the mobile app will packet these segments into a transaction to broadcast in this blockchain network and store in the blockchain database. and the mobile app will store all the bluetooth mac addresses generated locally for another service functionality health tracing, which will be discussed in the next section. another scenario of bluetooth-based contact tracing is that, if the mobile app receives a transaction containing other user's infected health status and his mac addresses, the bluetoothbased contact tracing will query its local blockchain database based on these mac addresses, and check whether the current user has a contact record with the infected user. if they have a contact history, then the mobile app will alert the user. then, the mobile app will transfer and broadcast this transaction again on the network to alert other users who may have a contact history. we have mentioned in the previous section that there are two types of challenges: 1. the balance between the number of random mac addresses generated by bluetooth and protecting users' privacy, 2. the balance of the number of random mac addresses and network congestion. for the first challenge, we adopt the method of changing the silent period [25] . the silent period refers to the gap time between bluetooth device discarding the old mac address and adopting the new mac address [25] , and during this period, the bluetooth device cannot decide to use the new or old address. the article points out that changing the length of the silent period obviously reduces the duration of the bluetooth device being tracked, and thus the device will not be located easily [25] . this is still an open question, and it is worth our research in the future. for the second challenge, we use weak randomization, which reduces the number of random addresses generated, so fewer transactions are generated for packing these mac addresses. then in the blockchain network, each computing node and the user can achieve data consistency without synchronizing a large number of communication requests. health tracing is the third service in the proposed mobile app and it has two major functionalities: 1). broadcast user's infection status to update contracts infection status and alert other users. 2). estimate the probability of being infected. within the first functionality, users can update their infection status as u infected or u normal . when the user's status becomes infected, the mobile app will automatically two things: 1). update all infection status among contract location s where this user visited in the past 14 days based on his visiting records and 2). broadcast transactions containing his infected status and all the bluetooth randomized mac addresses generated in the past 14 days to alert others who have close contacts with him. within the second functionality, users can estimate the probability of being infected based on the analysis of the four factors rssi, ∆t b , ∆t c , ms. referring to the formula (7) in section 3, we believe these parameters and p(infection) should be formalized in a logit function: where β 4 (ms) is formulized as after accessing real medical data and investigating the public locations, we will calculate and prove this proposed formula. we build a prototype system and evaluate its performance with the following experiments, where we simulate users' daily contact and check-in activities by the poisson distribution equation. in the experiments, we focus on the average cost of processing requests and the total cost to operate our prototype system. first, we introduce the environment for the experiments. then, we evaluate and analyze the system performance on stability and scalability. in the future, we may deploy our system and build benchmarks to evaluate when the real dataset is available. we conduct experiments on the macbook pro with a macos system in version 10.14.5. this machine has an intel i5 cpu with 2.3 ghz and an 8 gb lpddr3 memory. we use a programming language called solidity to develop and implement the smart contract group, which are deployed on a private ethereum blockchain simulated by a software called ganache. then, we use python to code the script for data analysis. our experiments focus on three basic variables affecting performance: 1). the number of |u| increasing from 100 to 600, with even intervals of 100, 2). the user's contact and check-in frequency freq following poisson distribution, and 3). smart contract group size scg.size. based on three quantities of deployed smart contracts and six different numbers of requests increased from 100 to 600, we measure the average gas cost of all requests, and the standard deviation on the average cost of ten rounds experiments. fig. 5 shows that as the quantity of contracts increases from 3 to 18, and the number of requests increases from 100 to 600, the average request gas consumption is reduced by a factor of 5 from 2,000,000 wei to 400,000 wei. fig. 6 shows that with the increase of requests, the deviation of request cost is reduced by 5 times. although the gas amount and deviation in fig. 5 and 6 are very large, the actual overhead is very small. we know that wei is the smallest gas unit in ethereum system and 1 ether is equal to 10 18 wei. then, assuming 1 ether is worth $250, an 400,000 wei request is worth $10 −10 , and the deviation of 500 wei is negligible. also, we find that in the condition of different number of contracts, the average costs trend to be a similar amount around 400,000 wei. system overhead refers to the interaction costs between mobile services and users and operating costs for smart contracts, which are measured by ethereum gas. fig. 7 shows that when the number of requests increases from 50 to 250, and the number of contracts increases from 3 to 18, the overall gas consumption of the system increases linearly, considering the case of the same amount of requests with different amount of contracts, and the case of the amount of contracts with different amount of requests numbers. based on the three measurements, we believe that this prototype system has good stability and scalability. with the increase in the number of requests and contracts, the request cost, which is the major overhead in the system operation, has a stable approaching to a lower boundary. this trend supports the stability of the system. similarly, the system overhead is linear growth, instead of an exponential one, which is an acceptable performance. in the field of contact tracing, mit [1] , apple and google [2] have related products and projects. however, their solutions are either a centralized database that is built in the system or incomplete privacy protection which is provided for users. such designs cannot meet the requirements of user privacy. in terms of data security, the smart contract guarantees the consistency of operating execution and then obtains a consistent output. there is one paper presenting a computing resource trading platform based on a smart contract-based edge computing network [26] . this design uses a similar treestructured smart contract group with ours, but their implementation focuses on how to match users and complete resource trading. and our purpose of smart contracts is to record the infection status for locations. regarding privacy, there are articles that use differential privacy algorithms in iot data processing [27] , but differential privacy methods will return a relatively accurate output with noise added. this conflicts with the property of blockchain because when storing data, the latter block must verify the correctness of the data of the previous block and cannot tolerate deviations. but it could be interesting to see intersection research of these two fields. in this paper, we design this tracing and notification system based on blockchain and smart contract, which provides three types of services: location-based contact tracing, bluetoothbased contact tracing and health tracing services. our system can trace the user's travel and contact history, and can remind the user about his past contacts that may cause infection. in addition, users can also estimate the probability of being infected through the health tracing service. in order to protect users' privacy, they can anonymously send their visiting records and health status on the blockchain platform. at the same time, users can use a large number of random mac addresses provided by bluetooth technology as a temporary identity to further protect privacy. in addition, our smart contract group embedded in the system records the infection status of each location and performs the same sequence of check-in operations to ensure that each user can get the consistent infection results of the location. we also simulate the interaction between users and our prototype system, and then evaluate its performance, including gas consumption, operating stability, and request processing speed. in a simulated environment, our system has a good scalability and good stability. we expect to have real data about user contact records to evaluate our system in the future. pact: private automated contact tracing apple and google partner on covid-19 contact tracing technology covid-19 coronavirus pandemic cases in the u.s we care world covid 19 tracing laboratory testing for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in suspected human cases: interim guidance protocol for assessment of potential risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) among health workers in a health care setting ethereum: a secure decentralised generalised transaction ledger byzantium version 7e819ec sustainability of coronavirus on different surfaces covid-19 diagnostic based on mit technology might be tested on patient samples soon a sneeze assessment of risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in health workers: protocol for a case-control study bleb: bluetooth low energy botnet for large scale individual tracking handoff all your privacy a review of apples bluetooth low energy continuity protocol on scaling decentralized blockchains machine learning: a probabilistic perspective distance estimation of smart device using bluetooth biomodels database: a free, centralized database of curated, published, quantitative kinetic models of biochemical and cellular systems cassandra: a decentralized structured storage system exploring the attack surface of blockchain: a comprehensive survey how to time-stamp a digital document bigchaindb: a scalable blockchain database operational performance data enhancing wireless location privacy using silent period smart contractbased computing resourcestrading in edge computing a lightweight privacy-preserving data aggregation scheme for fog computing-enhanced iot key: cord-018688-gvk9uazp authors: magid, avi; gesser-edelsburg, anat; green, manfred s. title: the role of informal digital surveillance systems before, during and after infectious disease outbreaks: a critical analysis date: 2018-03-23 journal: defence against bioterrorism doi: 10.1007/978-94-024-1263-5_14 sha: doc_id: 18688 cord_uid: gvk9uazp background one of the main limitations of traditional surveillance systems for disease detection is their inability to detect epidemics in real-time. in addition to syndromic surveillance, a number of informal digital resources have been developed. these systems are based on data collected through media sources such as news reports on the internet, mailing lists, and rss (really simple syndication) feeds. the role of such systems at all stages of the epidemic remains unclear. methods a literature review was carried out on informal digital resources for infectious disease surveillance. we examined the source of information, the manner in which they process and disseminate the information, their role in each phase of disease outbreaks, and whether and to what extent these systems are capable of early detection and management of infectious disease epidemics. results informal digital resources use similar sources of data for surveillance. however, they use different algorithms to create their output, and cover different geographic areas. in this regard, they complement each other with respect to information completeness. there is evidence in the literature on the systems’ usefulness in communicating information to public health professionals, as well as to the general public during and after previous epidemics. retrospective studies of some systems have shown a theoretical decrease in the time of epidemic detection compared to conventional surveillance. however, there is no evidence of the ability for real-time detection. conclusions currently, there is little prospective evidence that existing informal systems are capable of real-time early detection of disease outbreaks. most systems accumulate large amounts of information on a wide variety of diseases, making it difficult to extract critical information. presenting critical information clearly and precisely remains a challenge. not be captured through traditional surveillance, and may be useful to governments and health agencies [4] . these systems are designed to function during all phases of disease outbreak, and are planned to increase sensitivity and timeliness. however, the role of such systems before, during and after infectious disease epidemics and, in particular, whether such systems are currently capable of early detection of epidemics remains unclear. a literature review was carried out to compare informal digital systems with regards to their source of information, the manner in which they process and disseminate the information, their role in each phase of an epidemic, and whether and to what extent these systems are capable of early detection of epidemics. the systems evaluated were promed-mail, global public health intelligence network (gphin), healthmap, medisys, epispider, biocaster, h5n1 google earth mashup, avian influenza daily digest and blog, google flu trends and argus. promed-mail is "an internet based reporting system aimed at rapidly disseminating information on infectious disease outbreaks and acute exposures to toxins that affect human health, including those in animals and in plants grown for food or animal feed" [21] (promed-mail website). promed-mail receives information from a number of sources, such as media reports, official reports, online summaries and local observers. the reports are reviewed and investigated by promed-mail expert team, and then distributed by e-mail to promed subscribers, and published in promed-mail website (promed-mail website). in addition to filtering the received information, promed-mail expert team may also add related information from media, government and other sources [23] . promed-mail was proven as an efficient system during the 2003 outbreak of sars, where information about points of outbreak, including additional information from a british medical journal article, was efficiently disseminated [23] . it should be stressed that promed-mail collects, filters, disseminates and archives it. they do not carry out formal analysis of the information although they provide some evaluation. the global public health intelligence network (gphin) is a biosurveillance system developed by health canada in collaboration with the who. gphin receives as input, information about disease outbreaks arriving from news service items, promed-mail, electronic discussion groups and selected websites, and disseminates information to subscribers using the following decision algorithm. a relevance score is computed for each information item. two thresholds are determined, high and low. if the item relevance score is greater than the high threshold, then it is immediately disseminated to subscribers. if the item relevance score is lower than the low threshold, then it is automatically "trashed". otherwise (if the item relevance score is between the high and the low thresholds), the item goes through human analysis and then disseminated to subscribers [23] . a prominent limitation of gphin efficiency is its reliance on the time in which information about an outbreak or other event if published in one of gphin data sources. nevertheless, gphin is considered efficient in providing earlier warning of events of interest to the international community compared with other systems, as 56% of the 578 outbreaks verified by who between july 1998 and august 2001 were initially picked up by gphin [23] . healthmap is a freely accessible automated electronic information system aimed at facilitating knowledge management and early detection of infectious disease outbreaks by aggregating, extracting, categorizing, filtering and integrating reports on new and ongoing infectious disease outbreaks. data on outbreaks are organized according to geography, time, and infectious disease agent [5] . healthmap receives as input reports received from variety of electronic sources, including online news sources aggregated in websites such as google news, reporting systems such as promed-mail, and validated official reports received from organizations such as the who [5, 11] . an internet search is performed by healthmap every hour, 24 h a day, in order to obtain the required information. search criteria include disease name (scientific and common), symptoms, keywords, and phrases. after collecting the reports, healthmap uses text mining algorithms in order to characterize the reports. characterization includes the following stages: (1) categorization: reports are categorized according to disease and location and relevance is determined. (2) clustering: similar reports are grouped together and exact duplicates are removed. clustering is performed based on similarity of the report's headline, body text, and disease and location categories. (3) filtering: reports are reviewed and corrected by an analyst, and then filtered into five categories -breaking news, warning, old news, context, and not disease related. in order to reduce information overload and to focus on disseminating information regarding outbreaks of high impact, only reports classified as breaking news are overlaid on an interactive geographic map located on healthmap site [5] . among the users of healthmap are the who, the us centers for disease control and prevention, and the european center for disease prevention and control, which use its information for surveillance activities [5, 11] . medical information system (medisys) is an informal automatic public health surveillance system. medisys is designed and operated by the joint research center (jrc) of the european commission, in cooperation with the health threat unit at the european union directorate general for health and consumer affairs and the university of helsinki. medisys collects its information from open-source news media, mainly articles from news pages. medisys categorizes the collected information according to predefined categories and disseminates it to subscribed users by e-mail. the system also provides its user with features and statistics available on its website, including a world map in which event locations are highlighted, aggregated news count per each geographic location presented on graphs, and the most significant event location for the last 25 h. medisys is available in 26 languages (the system collects information in 45 languages, but the website is available in 26 languages). users can filter the information according to language, disease and location, as well as by outbreaks, treatments and legislations. medisys users can also select articles into predefined categories, add comments to these articles, add information, and disseminate them to user-defined groups [12] . argus is an informal biosurveillance system aimed at detecting and monitoring biological events that may be a global health threat to human, plant and animals. the system is hosted at the georgetown university medical center (washington, dc, united states), and funded by the united states government. argus collects information in 40 native languages from media sources, including printed newspapers, electronic media, internet-based newsletters and blogs, as well as from official sources (the world health organization (who) and the world organization for animal health (oie). the system uses bayesian analysis tools for selecting and filtering the collected articles. the process is performed by about 40 regional professional analysts, who monitor several thousand internet sources on a daily basis. by using bayesian analysis tools, the analysts select reports from a dynamic database of media reports. relevance is determined according to a specific set of terms and keywords applicable to infectious diseases surveillance. after filtering the information, events that may indicate the initiation of an outbreak are disseminated to the system users. also disseminated are events that may require investigation [12, 20] . biocaster is an informal surveillance system aimed to collect information on disease outbreaks, filter the information, and disseminate it to users. the system is a part of a research project developed and managed by the national institute of informatics in japan, which involves five institutes in three countries. biocaster focuses mainly on the asia-pacific region. the system collects information by using really system syndication (rss) feeds from more than 1700 sources. information is collected mainly from google news, yahoo! news, and european media monitor, filtered and disseminated in a fully automated manner with no human analysis in any stage. filtered information (about 90 articles per day) is published in three languages (english, japanese and vietnamese). articles are processed and disseminated every hour. in addition, biocaster creates an ontology which covers approximately 117 infectious diseases and six syndromes. the ontology is produced in eight languages (english, japanese, vietnamese, chinese, thai, korean, spanish and french), and is used as an input to global health monitor web portal, which offers its users maps and graphs of health-concerning events [12] . the semantic processing and integration of distributed electronic resources for epidemiology (epispider) is a web-based tool which integrates information gathered from electronic media resources containing health information, as well as from informal surveillance systems, such as promed-mail. the aim is to enhance the surveillance of infectious disease outbreaks.epispider uses promed-mail reports as an input, as well as health news sources that provide rss feeds. by using natural language processing, it extracts location information from the input sources, and geocode them using the yahoo and google geocoding services. after a filtering process, the system generates summaries of promed reports (on a daily basis). these reports are available in the epispider website [13] . google earth combines satellite images, aerial photography and map data to create a 3d interactive template of the world. this template can be used by anyone to add and share information about any subject that involves geographical elements. nature (international weekly journal of science) uses google earth to track the spread of the h5n1 avian flu virus around the globe, and to present a geographic visualization of the spread of h5n1 [19] (nature website). avian influenza daily digest is a digest produced by the united states government. the digest collects raw open source content regarding avian influenza and disseminates it to subscribers. material is disseminated without any processing. users are encouraged to provide with updates and/or clarifications that will be posted in subsequent issues of the digest [2] . google flu trend is designed by google internet company to be a near real-time tool for detection of influenza outbreaks. google flu trend exploits the fact that millions of people worldwide search online for health-related information on a daily basis. the tool was designed based on the assumption that there is an association between the number of people searching for influenza-related topics and the number of people who actually have influenza symptoms, and therefore, an unusual increase in the number of people searching for influenza-related topic on the web may simulate an increase in influenza syndromes. studies performed by google and yahoo have shown that plotting data on searches using influenza-related keywords has led to an epidemic curve that closely matched the epidemic curve generated by traditional surveillance of influenza [4] . google flu trends analyzes a fraction of the total google searches over a period of time, and extrapolates the data to estimate the search volume. the information is displayed in a graph called "search volume index graph". it is claimed by the tool's designers that, according to tool testing, it can detect outbreaks of influenza 7-10 days before it is detected by conventional cdc surveillance [4] . all the studied digital resources use similar sources of data -official reports, as well as media reports, including global media resources, news aggregators, eyewitness reports, internet-based newsletters and blogs. however, they use different algorithms to create their output, and cover different geographic areas. in addition, existing digital resources are different in the manner they filter and analyze the information and may create different output. therefore they complement each other with respect to information completeness. retrospective studies of some systems have shown a theoretical decrease in the time of outbreak detection compared to conventional surveillance. however, evidence of such ability in real time is sparse and unclear. chan et al. [8] have analyzed the average interval between the estimated start of the outbreak to the earliest date of discovery and publication, using who confirmed outbreak reports, as well as promed-mail, gphin and healthmap reports. analysis showed a decrease in intervals over 14 years, which was partially attributed to the emergence of informal digital resources [8] . a retrospective study of argus reports on respiratory disease in mexico showed a significant increase in reporting frequency during the 2008-2009 influenza season relative to that of 2007-2008. the authors suggest that, according to these retrospective results, respiratory disease was prevalent in mexico and reported as unusual much earlier than when the h1n1 pandemic virus was formally identified. however, its connection with the 2009 pandemic is unclear [20] . the google flu trends tool was also retrospectively tested. according to retrospective testing, influenza epidemics can be detected by using google flu trends tool 7-10 days before it is detected by conventional surveillance [6, 7] , however, there are still no prospective evidence to such capability. a retrospective study from china reported that google flu trend search data are correlated with traditional methods of surveillance [14] . another retrospective study tested the real-time detection ability of six informal digital systems, including argus, biocaster, gphin, healthmap, medisys and promed-mail. data from these systems were used to detect epidemics and compared to official data. results suggested that all tested systems have shown retrospective real-time detection ability. moreover, it was found that the combined expertise amongst systems provided a better early detection [3] . unlike retrospective evidence, prospective evidence of informal digital systems capability for early detection of epidemics is sparse. some epidemics have been claimed to be first reported by promed-mail, before they were officially reported by the who [15] . these reports were proved to be reliable, since they were later confirmed by the who. however most of the reports were first published by promed-mail not because the information was not available to the who by this time, but because the who was not authorized to publish them due to lack of conformation [15] . the sars in china (february 10, 2003) is the best known outbreak first reported on promed-mail [17] . a detection in real-time was also demonstrated by gphin during the sars outbreak of 2002. gphin detected sars and issues the first alert to the who more than 2 months before it was first published by the who [16, 18, 24] . however, the time between the gphin alert and the first time it was reported by the who implies that the whole detection process was not shortened due to the gphin alert. retrospective reviews of the polio outbreak of 2013 and 2014 and the ebola outbreak of 2014 showed that informal digital detection preceded official detection by an average of 14.6 days. for example, promed and gphin reported the polio epidemic in cameroon in 2013 23 days after the outbreak began, where the official who report was published 51 days after the outbreak began [1] . however, the digital systems detection did not contribute in real-time to the whole process of outbreak detection and declaration. hence, in real-time it is not an early detection. there is evidence in the literature on the systems' usefulness in communicating the information during previous outbreaks to public health professionals, as well as to the general public. promed-mail and gphin had critical roles in updating public health officials about the sars outbreak in 2002 [4] . such systems are also capable of providing officials, clinicians and the general public with guidance to medical decision making, including the importance of vaccination and other preventive actions [4] . the first report on sars on february 10, 2003 published by promedmail, and the hundreds of subsequent promed-mail reports have helped health professionals worldwide to gather critical details regarding sars, and by this to recognize sars and discover its cause [15] . assessment of correlation between healthmap reports and official government reports reported during the first 100 day of the 2010 haitian cholera outbreak has confirmed that data yielded from informal digital systems were well correlated with data officially reported from the haitian health authorities. moreover, this study has shown that informal digital systems are capable of being used at the early stages of an outbreak not only as an indicator of the outbreak occurrence, but also as a predictive tool by providing a reliable estimation of the reproductive number, a major epidemic parameter [9] . there is no evidence in the literature of the use of informal digital systems after an epiodemic. nevertheless, we believe that data collected during outbreaks through informal digital systems are being used by public health agencies for retrospectively studying the dynamics of epidemic, and for drawing conclusions about the management of the epidemic. there has been impressive progress in the development of informal digital systems for disease surveillance. informal digital systems are widely used by the general public, as well as by health officials. a good example is the goran digital system (the global outbreak and response network) developed by the who, which gather information from number of sources both governmental and informal, including gphin and promed-mail [17] . one of the most prominent suggested advantages of the digital systems is their functioning in early notification of infectious disease outbreaks, before the official notifications, and their contribution to the epidemiological investigation of the disease before official data are available. during epidemics, data gathered and disseminated through official public health authorities are usually not available to public health officials and to policy makers for some time, sometimes due to political and logistic limitations. this period of time is critical for estimating the epidemic dynamics and implementing the response plan [9] . unlike official data, data collected by digital systems are available in near real-time, and may be used for epidemiological assessment. a mandatory requisite for the use of digital systems data for epidemiological investigation of an outbreak is the reliability of the data, as well as their equivalence to official data. in other words, there should be a match between the number of cases derived from the informal data and the number of cases officially reported by public health authorities. indeed, our results have pointed out an example in which a correlation between digital systems data and official data in the first stages of epidemic was confirmed in the data collected from healthmap regarding the 2010 haitian cholera. however, as mentioned by the authors, epidemiological measurements using digital systems data should be also tested in other epidemics, in order to confirm the method's reliability [9] . the fact that the number of subscribers to digital systems is increasing each year [15] makes these systems an efficient tool for globally spreading the information, as well as a tool for epidemiological investigation, complementary to official data. however, despite their theoretical advantage over traditional surveillance, there is no evidence in the literature that information collected through digital system had affected public health policy makers. although we did not find evidence in the literature, we believe that digital systems may also contribute to the public health community after the outbreak ends. the abundance of reports collected and disseminated by these systems during outbreaks creates an epidemiological reservoir, which, due to its availability worldwide, may be used for a post-pandemic investigation and conclusion making. as for early detection of infectious disease outbreaks, we did not find any prospective evidence showing the capability of digital systems of detection infectious disease outbreaks in real-time. our results are consistent with some other studies conclusions, pointing out that currently digital systems are not capable of detecting an outbreak [17, 4] . although there is evidence of informal digital systems publishing reports on outbreaks before official detection (such as in the polio outbreak of 2013 and 2014 pointed out in the results section) [1] , these reports did not actually affect the process of detection. the formal process of detection includes receiving the information, processing the information and using the information. the early digital systems reports were not used in any of the detection phases and did not change the process. it may be viewed as an analogue to screening tests which are effective only if they are capable of changing the natural history of a disease. since there is no evidence of informal digital systems capable of changing the "natural history of outbreak" so far, they cannot be considered useful for early detection. informal digital systems may also have an important role in disease surveillance. incorporating informal digital systems into existing formal systems may improve their performance. a study in the united states showed that combining information gathered from informal digital systems with information received from the texas influenza-like-illness surveillance network (ilinet) improved the ability of predicting hospitalizations due to influenza [22] . another study in the united states showed a good correlation between google flu searches and emergency department influenza-like illness visits [10] . moreover, since digital sources usually contains data not captured through traditional methods, they are used by public health organizations, including the global outbreak alert and response network of the who, which uses digital sources for surveillance on a daily basis [4] . however, the usage of digital systems as a surveillance tool may have some limitations. first, most systems accumulate a huge mass of information on a large variety of diseases, making it difficult to extract critical information. in other words, no integration of the information is performed to yield useful information. the challenge is to present critical information clearly and concisely. second, digital systems are less specific than traditional surveillance systems, mostly due to false alarms, misinformation and information based on rumors [9, 17] . therefore, they may not be solely used but as a complementary tool for traditional surveillance systems [17] . a third limitation is the lack of a response system to early warnings. with the lack of such a system, early warning is not useful, as no practical action is followed by the publication of the information. such a response system may include triggers and decision criteria, which would lead to an appropriate and proportionate response to the threat [17] . to summarize, considerable efforts and resources have been invested in the development of informal digital system for detection of infectious disease outbreaks. as a result, a new generation of informal digital systems has emerged. the most prominent advantage of such systems is their ability to report on an outbreak in near real-time, or, in other words, before the information is officially reported, and by this to be used by public health decision makers for epidemiological assessment and preparation for the pandemic. currently there is no evidence in the literature for their capability to detect an outbreak at its onset. in addition, there are no hard data to prove the benefits of using such systems before and during an outbreak. we do not believe that they can be used to identify early cases, but should be used as a support system for describing the spread of the disease. the challenge is to empirically assess the efficiency of informal digital systems and their use for decision making and interventions during crisis, as well as to test the systems' sensitivity and specificity. a more general informal system, which provides syndromic-based analysis of reports disseminated by all currently existing systems, may be the next step toward disease outbreak detection based on informal systems. digital surveillance for enhanced detection and response to outbreaks factors influencing performance of internet-based biosurveillance systems used in epidemic intelligence for early detection of infectious diseases outbreaks digital disease detection -harnessing the web for public health surveillance surveillance sans frontieres: internetbased emerging infectious disease intelligence and the healthmap project google trends: a web-based tool for real-time surveillance of disease outbreaks google trends: a web-based tool for real-time surveillance of disease outbreaks global capacity for emerging infectious disease detection social and news media anables estimation of epidemiological patterns early in the 2010 haitian cholera outbreak google flu trends: correlation with emergency department influenza rates and crowding metrics healthmap: global infectious disease monitoring through automated classification and visualization of internet media reports landscape of international eventbased biosurveillance scanning the emerging infectious diseases horizon-visualizing promed emails using epispider using google trends for influenza surveillance in south china the internet and the global monitoring of emerging diseases: lessons from the first 10 years of promed-mail internet-based surveillance systems for monitoring emerging infectious diseases public health surveillance and infectious disease detection the global public health intelligence network and early warning outbreak detection: a canadian contribution to global public health event-based biosurveillance of respiratory disease in mexico optimizing provider recruitment for influenza surveillance networks book: handbook of biosurveillance 301 early detection of disease outbreaks using the internet key: cord-010406-uwt95kk8 authors: hu, paul jen-hwa; zeng, daniel; chen, hsinchun; larson, catherine; chang, wei; tseng, chunju; ma, james title: system for infectious disease information sharing and analysis: design and evaluation date: 2007-07-10 journal: ieee trans inf technol biomed doi: 10.1109/titb.2007.893286 sha: doc_id: 10406 cord_uid: uwt95kk8 motivated by the importance of infectious disease informatics (idi) and the challenges to idi system development and data sharing, we design and implement bioportal, a web-based idi system that integrates cross-jurisdictional data to support information sharing, analysis, and visualization in public health. in this paper, we discuss general challenges in idi, describe bioportal's architecture and functionalities, and highlight encouraging evaluation results obtained from a controlled experiment that focused on analysis accuracy, task performance efficiency, user information satisfaction, system usability, usefulness, and ease of use. i ncreasing globalization, combined with accelerating population mobility and more frequent travel, has made the prevention and management of infectious disease outbreaks a growing concern in public health. emerging infectious disease and epidemic outbreaks are particularly important and represent critical challenges facing public health researchers and practitioners [1] , [2] . in addition, potential threats of bioterrorism appear on the horizon [3] . managing infectious disease outbreaks is intrinsically information intensive and requires substantial support for data gathering, integration, analysis, sharing, and visualization [4] . such support requirements are becoming even more challenging because of the diverse, heterogeneous, and complex information available in enormous volumes and different sources that span jurisdictional constituencies both horizontally and vertically. public health professionals such as epidemiologists can be better supported by advanced information systems (is), as vividly manifested by emerging infectious disease informatics (idi)-an interdisciplinary research area that focuses on the design, implementation, and evaluation of advanced systems, techniques, and methods for managing infectious disease and epidemic outbreaks, ranging from prevention to surveillance and detection [5] , [6] . the design and implementation of an effective idi system can be complex and challenging. at the data level, an expanding array of data that pertain to particular diseases, population characteristics, and related health considerations must be collected, organized, and archived, typically by different clinical institutions and health agencies. these data are heterogeneous in their semantics, modeling, granularity, aggregation, availability frequency, and coding/representation. data sharing is critical to the pertinent institutions and agencies, which have to coordinate by explicitly specifying data ownership and access rights, as well as delineating the responsibilities associated with legal and privacy considerations. at the system level, these institutions and agencies often vary in their in-house systems, which adopt proprietary architecture designs and operate on different platforms. as kay et al. [7] point out, most existing systems in public health have been developed in isolation. the challenge and complexity of designing an idi system extends beyond data and system heterogeneity. from the user's perspective, all relevant data must be seamlessly integrated to support his or her surveillance and analysis tasks that are critical to the prevention of and alert about particular disease events or devastating outbreaks. to be effective, an idi system must encompass sophisticated algorithms for the automatic detection of emerging disease patterns and the identification of probable threats or events. an effective idi system also must have advanced computational models that overlay health data for spatial-temporal analysis to support public health professionals' analysis tasks [8] . several additional issues are crucial for system design and implementation, including the integration of multiple heterogeneous source data or systems, data accessibility and security, interfaces with geographic information systems (gis), text document management support, and data or text mining. in particular, idi design requirements include spatial-temporal data analysis and related visualization support. typically, public health professionals approach the surveillance or detection of a probable outbreak as an event for which all related data are dotted and analyzed in spatial and temporal dimensions. furthermore, the value of an idi system is generally determined by the extent to which the system can present data and analysis results through intuitively comprehensible and cognitively efficient visualization. ultimately, an idi system must facilitate and enhance task performance by enabling public health professionals to use heuristics and preferred analysis methods to generate more accurate analysis results within a shorter time window. to support the surveillance and detection of infectious disease outbreaks by public health professionals, we design and implement the bioportal system, a web-based idi system that provides convenient access to distributed, cross-jurisdictional health data pertaining to several major infectious diseases including west nile virus (wnv), foot-and-mouth disease (fmd), and botulism. our system development team is interdisciplinary, consisting of researchers in both is and public health, practitioners, and officials from several state health departments. bioportal supports sophisticated spatial-temporal data analysis methods, and has effective data/information visualization capabilities. the rest of this paper is structured as follows. in section ii, we describe the architecture design of bioportal and highlight its main technical components and functionalities. next, in section iii, we discuss the value of bioportal for infectious disease surveillance and management, derive hypotheses regarding its advantages and effects, and empirically test these hypotheses using a controlled experiment with 33 subjects. to assess bioportal as a whole, we focus our evaluation on users rather than specific algorithms implemented as part of bioportal and examine its effects on their task performances as well as subjective assess-ments of the system. in section iv, we summarize our findings and note that our data support most of the hypotheses tested. our results suggest that bio portal can better support public health professionals' analysis tasks, and is generally considered more usable, useful, and easier to use than the benchmark technology. section v concludes with a summary, discussions of the paper's contributions and limitations, and some future research directions. bioportal is an integrated, cross-jurisdictional idi infrastructure that has been running for testing and research purposes since early 2004 (see www.bioportal.org). although it has not yet been adopted for operational use, it contains more than a dozen realworld data sets contributed by public health partners and other agencies. in this section, we summarize bioportal's architectural design, its main components, data set availability, system functionality, and related outbreak detection research. the information that we present herein establishes the background for the evaluation study reported in the subsequent sections of this paper. fig. 1 illustrates the architecture of the bioportal system, including the data flows between/among the main components of bioportal as well as between bioportal and external data sources. from a system's perspective, bioportal is loosely coupled with state public health information systems in california and new york. it does not change the way these state systems operate. as needed, these systems transmit wnv/botulism information through secure links to the bioportal using mutually agreed protocols. such information is then stored in an internal data store maintained by the bioportal. the system also automatically retrieves data items from sources, such as those from the usgs, and stores them in this internal data store. all the system functions provided by bioportal, including infectious disease data search and query, spatial-temporal visualization, outbreak detection analysis and related modeling, and automatic alert generation based on the results of outbreak detection analysis, are solely based on the data stored in the bioportal internal data store, without further interactions with the contributing data sources. technically speaking, we adopt a data warehousing approach, rather than alternative approaches such as query translation, information linkage, or terminology mapping [9] to address the distributed data integration challenges in idi. this choice of approach is primarily based on the following characteristics of infectious disease data sources and associated analysis needs. first, unlike many other biomedical applications for which it has become increasingly easy to query data sources automatically from remote locations, most infectious disease data sets have been developed primarily for internal use. although accessing the underlying databases through remote queries is technologically feasible, in practice, most idi data providers are unwilling to "open up" their databases. instead, they prefer pushing preprocessed data to (or preprocessing data waiting to be pulled by) a data warehousing system such as bioportal while retaining full control over data fields to be shared (directly at the data level as opposed to at the data access control level). second, the types of queries performed on idi data sources typically are confined to data aggregation requests over particular geographical regions and time periods. therefore, there is no need to strategize complex distributed queries. however, processing speed of the data aggregation is important because such operations must be carried out in large numbers for some outbreak detection analysis approaches (see section ii-c). third, the amount of idi data is relatively small in terms of storage volume because epidemiological information tends to contain a few short data fields, which makes a data warehousing approach feasible. furthermore, overlaps between epidemiological data coverage are rare; therefore, the data warehousing effort becomes relatively manageable. internally, bioportal consists of three main components: a web portal, a data store, and a communication backbone. in section ii-b, we provide the details of each component in more detail; here, we summarize bioportal's implementation environment and the assumptions made on the user's end. bioportal follows a standard three-tier web architecture. the data store component, developed using sql server, provides a data warehouse with information pulled from or pushed by contributing data sources. the communication backbone uses standardcompliant xml formats, and is built as multiple standalone java applications that interface with various data sources using different messaging protocols. most system functions are developed in java using jsp pages to interact with the user. as such, all except one major component of bioportal can be accessed by users through a standard web browser. the exception is the visualization module, which is developed as a standalone java application for improved performance, enhanced interactivity, and greater user interface control and is deployable through the web start technology (assuming that the sun jre environment is installed on the client machine). because the web portal component of bioportal implements the user interface and provides access to all main user functionalities-including: 1) searching and querying available infectious disease-related data sets; 2) visualizing the data sets using spatial-temporal visualization; 3) accessing analysis and outbreak detection functions; and 4) accessing the alerting mechanism-we do not discuss this component as one unit. instead, we briefly summarize our work on 1) and 4) in this section, and then present the bioportal visualization environment. because data analysis and outbreak detection involve innovative spatial-temporal data mining research beyond system implementation, we defer their discussion to section ii-c. 1) portal data store: a main objective of bioportal is to enable users from partnering states and organizations to share data. typically, data from different organizations have different designs and are stored in different formats. to enable data interoperability, we use hl7 standards internally as the main storage format. some data providers (e.g., new york state's hin) have already adopted hl7 and can, thus, send hl7-compliant data to bioportal directly. additional steps are needed to ensure data interoperability for those data providers that do not yet have hl7-compliant data. first, we reach an agreement with them regarding the format (typically a simple home-grown xml format) for their data. second, the data providers modify their data export module to implement this mutually agreed format. third, when data from these providers reach bioportal, a data normalization module maps the customized xml format on to hl7 using predetermined mapping rules implemented by the bioportal team. in effect, the data from the hl7-compliant data providers also are processed by this module, because it removes from them unneeded data attributes, duplications, and common misspellings (based on a customized home-grown dictionary). this normalization module is not intended to resolve structural or semantic incompatibilities in an automated fashion; rather, it converts data to a predetermined format and performs shallow syntactic checking. after being processed by the data normalization module, data are stored directly in bioportal's main data store. this hl7 xml-based design provides a key advantage over an alternative design based on a consolidated database for which the portal data store must consolidate and maintain the data fields for all data sets. when an underlying data set changes its data structure, a portal data store based on the consolidated database must be redesigned and reloaded to reflect the changes, which severely limits system scalability and extensibility. to alleviate potential computational performance problems with our xml-based design, we identify a core set of data fields based on the queries that are likely to be performed frequently. these fields are extracted from all xml messages and stored in a separate database table to enable fast retrieval. 2) communication backbone: the communication backbone component enables data exchanges between bioportal and the underlying data sources. several federal programs have been recently created to promote data sharing and system interoperability in the healthcare domain; the cdc's national electronic disease surveillance system (nedss) initiative is particularly relevant for our research. it builds on a set of recognized national standards such as hl7 for its data format and messaging protocols, and provides basic modeling and ontological support for data models and vocabularies. the nedss and hl7 standards have had major impacts on the development of idi systems. although these standards have not yet been tested in cross-state sharing scenarios, they provide an appropriate foundation for data exchange standards in national and international contexts. bioportal relies heavily on nedss/hl7 standards. the communication backbone component uses a collection of source-specific "connectors" to communicate with contributing sources. we use the connector linking new york's hin system and bioportal to illustrate a typical design. the data from hin to the portal system are transmitted in a "push" manner, i.e., hin send through secure public health information network messaging system (phin ms) messages to the portal at prespecified time intervals. the connector on the portal side runs a data receiver daemon to listen for incoming messages. after a message is received, the connector checks for data integrity syntactically and normalizes the data. the connector then stores the verified message in the portal's internal data store through its data ingest control module. other data sources (e.g., usgs) may have "pull"-type connectors that periodically download information from source web sites, and examine and store those data in the portal's internal data store. in general, the communication backbone component provides data receiving and sending functionalities, source-specific data normalization, and data-encryption capabilities. 3) data confidentiality and access control: data confidentiality, security, and access control are among the key research and development issues for the bioportal project. with regard to system development, programming and rules already developed for new york's hin system constitute the main sources of our design and implementation decisions. because there was no precedent for extending access to a data system across state lines, we needed to develop new access rules for bioportal. we have created new security and user agreement forms for organizations with proposed access as well as individual users within those organizations. in addition, the agencies involved in developing bioportal formally signed a memorandum of understanding prior to sharing any real data. the responsibilities of participating organizations and individuals with access include: 1) the establishment and definition of roles within the agency for access, and the determination of those individuals who fill those roles, including systems for termination of access; 2) security of data physically located on, or transported over the organization's network; 3) protection for the confidentiality of all data accessed, with prohibitions against disclosure of personal or health information to any other agency, person, or public media outlet; and 4) recognition of ownership rights of parties that have provided data. the types of data that must be addressed separately with regard to access are data from humans or owned animals that require the highest levels of confidentiality, data from freeranging wildlife, and data from other systems such as vectors (e.g., mosquitoes for wnv), land use, and so forth. the need for maximum access to track diseases must be balanced against the confidentiality concerns and risks of jeopardizing data reporting to the system. we summarize bioportal's data coverage in table i. 4) data search and alerting: bioportal provides limited data search functions to regular idi users. instead of developing a generic data search interface with a full range of search criteria, after extensive discussions with potential end users (i.e., state and county epidemiologists and public health researchers), we decided to concentrate on search criteria based primarily on location and time. a specialized tabular interface allows users to quickly identify infectious disease cases that occurred at certain locations within a specified period of time. through this interface, the user can also get summary case counts across locations and times with different levels of granularity. an advanced search module is also available to power users. using this module, a power user can build a personalized search interface that includes additional data-set-specific search criteria. because bioportal can perform idi data analysis automatically without user intervention, if potentially interesting events are detected, the concerned individuals (e.g., epidemiologists in charge) should be alerted. we are currently implementing three types of alerting mechanisms. the first one is by e-mail. the second is through the bioportal web interface, so when a user authorizes himself or herself on the bioportal site and an alert message exists, a flashing icon will notify the user of the pending message. the third mechanism is cellular phone notification through an automated web-based short text message interface for urgent alerts. an important role of visualization in the context of large and complex data set exploration is to organize and characterize the data visually to assist users in overcoming information overload problems [10] . bioportal makes available an advanced visualization module, called the spatial temporal visualizer (stv), to facilitate the exploration of infectious disease case data and summarize query results. developed as a generic visualization environment, stv can be used to visualize various spatial-temporal data sets simultaneously. the stv has three integrated and synchronized views: periodic, timeline, and gis. the periodic view provides the user with an intuitive display to identify periodic temporal patterns. the timeline view provides a two-dimensional timeline, along with a hierarchical display of the data elements organized as a tree. the gis view displays cases and sightings on a map. fig. 2 illustrates how these three views can be used to explore infectious disease data sets; the top left panel shows the gis view. the user can select multiple data sets to be shown on the map in a layered manner using the checkboxes (e.g., disease cases, natural land features, land-use elements). the top-right panel corresponds to the timeline view and displays the occurrences of various cases using a gantt chart-like display. the user can also access case details easily using the tree display located to the left of the timeline display. below the timeline view is the periodic view with which the user can identify periodic temporal patterns (e.g., months with an unusually high number of cases). the bottom portion of the interface allows the user to specify subsets of data to be displayed and analyzed. as discussed in section ii-a, to achieve fine-graded interface control and high interactivity, stv has been developed as a standalone java application, which can be deployed transparently across the web. the essential data elements (location, time, and event type) displayed by stv are all captured in the relational tables in the bioportal internal data store. the auxiliary data elements (e.g., case details, needed only when a user wants to learn more about a particular data point) may be re-trieved from the hl7 xml messages stored in the bioportal internal data store. because stv is executed on the client machine, real-time data transmissions between the client machine and bioportal server are necessary. for better performance and shorter response time, stv caches much of the data needed on the client side. in addition to data access, query, and visualization, bioportal provides data analysis capabilities, particularly in the area of spatial-temporal data analysis. in idi applications, measurements of interest such as disease cases are often made at various locations in both space and time. in recent years, interest has increased in answering several central questions, which have great practical importance in outbreak detection and arise from spatial-temporal data analysis and related predictive modeling: how can areas with exceptionally high or low measures be identified? how can observers determine whether unusual measures can be attributed to known random variations or are statistically significant? in the latter case, how should the explanatory factors be assessed? how can statistically significant changes be identified in a timely manner in specific geographic areas? for instance, unusual clustering of dead birds has been proven to be highly indicative of wnv outbreaks. from a modeling and computational perspective, two distinct types of spatial-temporal clustering or hotspot analysis techniques have been developed. the first type is based on various kinds of scan statistics, and has been used with increasing frequency in public health and infectious disease studies [11] . the second type is based on data clustering and its variations, and has found successful application in crime analysis [12] . bio-portal makes both types of methods available through its web interface. in addition, it allows the user to interactively invoke these methods and visually inspect their results through stv. one major computational problem faced by existing methods is that the shapes of potential hotspots are limited to simple, fixed symmetrical shapes for analytical and search efficiency reasons. as a result, when the real underlying clusters do not conform to such shapes, the identified regions are often poorly localized. to overcome this major computational limitation, as part of the bioportal technical research effort, we have developed an alternative and complementary modeling approach called riskadjusted support vector clustering (rsvc). hotspot analysis differs from standard clustering in that clustering must be performed relative to baseline data points (representing a "normal" situation). in rsvc, we apply the "risk adjustment" concept from a crime hotspot analysis approach [12] to incorporate baseline information in the clustering process. the basic intuition behind rsvc is as follows: a robust, svm-based clustering mechanism called support vector clustering allows detection of clusters with arbitrary shapes based on the distances defined over pairs of data points. by adjusting distance measures proportionally to the estimated density of the baseline factor, areas with high baseline density make it more difficult to group data points together as clusters, because the distances between these data points have been adjusted upward. we have also extended our rsvc approach to perform prospective hotspot analysis aimed at monitoring data sources on a continuous basis. for technical details of this bioportal spatial-temporal data analysis work, interested readers are referred to [13] and [14] . we conducted a controlled experiment to evaluate bioportal holistically. our foci were objective user task performance and subjective self-reported system assessments. our evaluation did not involve algorithmic assessments or examine individual components of bioportal (e.g., hotspot analysis and outbreak detection), which have been studied previously [14] . in this section, we discuss the hypotheses tested and detail our evaluation design. we followed the system success evaluation framework by delone and mclean [15] , and focused on evaluating the essential system characteristics of bioportal and its impacts on user task performance measured objectively by analysis accuracy and task completion efficiency. we also examined users' self-reported assessments of bioportal in terms of satisfaction, usability, usefulness, and ease of use, all of which are critical in system evaluations [16] . for benchmark purposes, we included a computer-based spreadsheet program commonly used by public health professionals in their analysis tasks. 1) analysis accuracy: by integrating interrelated data extracted from different sources and presenting them in a visually intuitive and comprehensible way, bioportal can be expected to better support various analysis tasks by public health professionals. therefore, we tested the following hypotheses. h1a : the analysis accuracy that results from the use of bioportal is higher than that associated with the benchmark spreadsheet program. h1b : the accuracy improvement that results from the use of bioportal, as compared with the benchmark spreadsheet program, increases with task complexity. 2) task completion efficiency: by providing convenient access to integrated data extracted from difference sources, together with easy-to-use analytical algorithms and effective visualization, bioportal can be expected to make public health professionals increasingly efficient in their task performance. we, therefore, tested the following hypothesis. h2 : the task completion efficiency associated with bioportal is higher than that observed with the benchmark spreadsheet program. 3) user satisfaction: user satisfaction is a fundamental aspect of system evaluation and embraces user information satisfaction that emphasizes information requirements [17] . because of the critical importance of information support in an idi system, we explicitly focused on user information satisfaction and tested the following hypothesis. h3 : the user information satisfaction that results from the use of bioportal is significantly higher than that observed with the benchmark spreadsheet program. system usability has been shown to affect user adoption, system usage, and satisfaction [18] . several usability instruments have been developed and validated [19] , [20] . of particular importance is the user interaction satisfaction (quis) scale [19] capable of assessing a system in five fundamental usability dimensions-overall reactions to the system, screen layout and sequence, terminology and system information, system learnability, and system capabilities. we tested the following hypothesis. h4 : bioportal is more usable than the benchmark spreadsheet program and shows favorable usability scores in overall reaction to the system, screen layout and sequence, terminology and system information, system learnability, and system capabilities. system usefulness is critical to voluntary use of a new system [21] , [22] , and generally refers to the extent to which an individual considers a system useful in his or her work role. bioportal offers effective data integration support, and has sophisticated built-in functionalities and intuitive visualization designs; as a result, it can be expected to better support the demanding information processing often required in an analysis task. hence, we tested the following hypothesis. h5 : the usefulness of bioportal, as perceived by an individual, is significantly greater than that of the benchmark spreadsheet program. 6) perceived ease of use: perceived ease of use refers to the degree to which an individual considers his or her use of a system to be free of effort [21] . ease of use represents an essential motivation for individuals' voluntary use of a system [23] , and can affect their adoption decisions significantly [22] . hence, we tested the following hypothesis. h6 : the ease of use of bioportal, as perceived by an individual, is significantly greater than that of the benchmark spreadsheet program. we adopted a randomized, between-groups design. our subjects were graduate students attending the management school or the public health school of a major university located in the southwestern united states. all subjects were knowledgeable about computer-based spreadsheets but varied substantially in general public health knowledge. each subject was randomly assigned to use one particular system (bioportal or the spreadsheet program), though we remained mindful of maintaining a balance in the subject-technology assignment. with the assistance of several experienced public health researchers and professionals, we created six analysis scenarios common in public health and then developed a total of 11 experiment tasks accordingly. the assisting experts classified the experiment tasks on the basis of complexity: low, medium, or high. a complete listing of the scenarios and analysis tasks used in the experiment is available upon request. we provide two examples as follows. scenario 1: examine data related to wnv. task 1: in 2002, which county in new york had the highest dead bird count? (complexity = low) task 2: of the three listed bird species, bluejay, crow, and house sparrow, which had the highest number of positive cases of wnv? (complexity = low) scenario 6: determine correlations between the incidence of wnv and dead bird occurrences and mosquito pool counts. task 10: using the bioportal system or the spreadsheets, as assigned, to investigate wnv disease, can you determine whether, during 2002, there is a correlation between the dead bird occurrences and mosquito pool counts? (complexity = high) task 11: (continued with task 10) if so, what correlation do you observe? (complexity = high) to assess an individual subject's accuracy in each task, we consolidated the analyses by the assisting experts to establish a "gold-standard" solution for that task. we measured analysis accuracy using a ten-point scale, with one being completely incorrect and ten being completely correct. we measured task completion efficiency by using the amount of time that a subject needed to complete a task. we evaluated user information satisfaction [17] using a sevenpoint likert scale, with one indicating extreme disagreement and seven indicating extreme agreement. we adapted question items from previous research [21] to measure system usefulness and ease of use, using a seven-point likert scale with one indicating extreme disagreement and seven indicating extreme agreement. we adopted the quis instrument [19] with a nine-point likert scale to evaluate system usability. 1 before the experiment, we used a script to inform the subjects explicitly of our objective and data analysis plan while ensuring them of the necessary information privacy. subjects were asked to provide some demographic information, and self-assessments of their general computer self-efficacy and knowledge about computer-based spreadsheets and public health. we provided each subject with an overview of his or her assigned system and a training session based on sample tasks to illustrate how to use that system. in the experiment, each subject was asked to complete all analysis tasks grouped by analysis scenario and sequenced in increasing complexity, i.e., tasks progressing from low to high complexity. after completing all the tasks, each subject had to complete a questionnaire survey to provide his or her assessment of the system's usability, usefulness, and ease of use, as well as his or her satisfaction with the information support by the system. we imposed a 50-min time limit in the experiment, which was appropriate according to the results of a pilot study [24] . a total of 33 subjects voluntarily participated in the experiment. among them, 17 subjects used bioportal, and the remainder used the spreadsheet program. of those using bioportal, 9 subjects had high domain knowledge and the others were low in domain knowledge. a similar distribution was observed in the spreadsheet group. according to our analysis, the subjects in the bioportal and spreadsheet groups are comparable demographically, and reported similar self-assessments in general computer efficacy and computer-based spreadsheets. we reexamined the reliability of our instrument by assessing its internal consistency [25] . as summarized in table ii , the subjects' evaluative responses showed that almost all constructs exhibited a cronbach's alpha value exceeding the commonly suggested threshold of 0.8 [26] , thus, suggesting adequate reliability of our instrument. we tested the main effect of system (bioportal versus the spreadsheet program) and domain knowledge (low versus high general public health knowledge) as well as their combined effects by performing an analysis of variance (anova) with each dependent variable on the basis of subjects' responses. we also performed a paired t-test to assess the difference in each dependent variable obtained from the subjects using bioportal versus the spreadsheet program. we used the gold-standard result to evaluate the accuracy of each task performed by subjects. for each subject, we aggregated his or her analysis accuracy across all the tasks performed in the experiment and used the overall accuracy to test the hypothesized main effect of system. according to our analysis, the system had a significant effect on analysis accuracy (p-value < 0.01). we further investigated the effect of system on the basis of task complexity, and found that the system's effect on analysis accuracy was insignificant for low-complexity tasks but significant for tasks of medium and high complexity. bioportal's accuracy was greater (mean = 81.94, sd = 21.23) than that of the spreadsheet program (mean = 61.19, sd = 17.92), and the difference was significant at the 0.01 level. thus, our data supported h1a and h1b. based on our analysis, the system showed a significant main effect on task completion efficiency (p-value <0.01). we compared the amount of time required to complete a task using the respective systems and found that, on average, subjects using bioportal could complete an analysis task considerably faster (mean = 36.28 min, sd = 11.33 min) than their counterparts supported by the spreadsheet program (mean = 48.23 min, sd = 5.07 min); the difference was significant at the 0.01 level. thus, our data supported h2. according to our analysis, the main effect of the system on user information satisfaction was significant statistically (pvalue <0.01). overall, subjects using bioportal exhibited higher satisfaction with the information support (mean = 2.34, sd = 1.02) than their counterparts supported by the spreadsheet program (mean = 3.68, sd = 1.23); the difference was significant at the 0.01 level. thus, our data supported h3. according to our analysis, the system had a significant main effect on both overall reactions to the system (p-value <0.01) and system capabilities (p-value <0.05) but not on screen layout and sequence or terminology and system information. the effect on system learnability was somewhat significant statistically. overall, our subjects considered bioportal generally usable and recognized its utilities for supporting their analysis tasks. our evaluation results indicated that the design of bioportal may need to improve in screen layout and sequence, as well as in language (e.g., clarity and user friendliness). our subjects considered their learning to use bioportal not particularly difficult, but its learnability could be enhanced further. according to our comparative analysis of subjects' self-reported assessments of the respective systems, bioportal arguably was more usable than the spreadsheet program in most, but not all, fundamental usability dimensions, though the between-groups differences are not statistically significant. thus, our data partially supported h4. our analysis shows that the system had a significant effect on perceived usefulness (p-value <0.05). overall, our subjects considered bioportal more useful for supporting their analysis tasks (mean = 2.13, sd = 1.06) than the spreadsheet program (mean = 3.47, sd = 1.88). the observed between-groups difference was statistically significant at the 0.05 level. thus, our data supported h5. according to our analysis, the effect of system on perceived ease of use was significant statistically (p-value <0.05). our subjects considered bioportal easier to use (mean = 2.31, sd = 1.06) than the spreadsheet program (mean = 3.24, sd = 0.88). the between-groups difference in perceived ease of use was significant at the 0.01 level. therefore, our data supported h6. the development of advanced idi systems and their routine use by public health professionals are becoming increasingly critical. we report here a significant idi effort, i.e., bioportal that supports cross-jurisdictional data integration with advanced data query, analysis, and visualization capabilities. we conducted a controlled experiment to evaluate bioportal along some fundamental system evaluation dimensions and investigated its effects on user task performance, with particular focus on analysis accuracy, task completion efficiency, and user information satisfaction, system, usability, usefulness, and ease of use. our study generated encouraging findings that suggest desirable effectiveness, usefulness, and ease of use of bioportal. we make several contributions to idi research and practice. first, we designed and implemented an advanced idi system by addressing essential system development challenges pertinent to data/system integration, analysis support, and visualization. second, we conducted a controlled experiment to evaluate bio-portal and its impacts on user task performance. our evaluation had methodological rigor and involved analysis scenarios and tasks common to public health professionals. third, we are contributing to general practices in public health by providing practitioners with a conveniently accessible, easy-to-use system that enables them to generate better analysis results in less time. our future research includes further system enhancements and expanded system evaluations. both system functionalities and usability need further improvement, including hotspot analysis and such usability dimensions as screen layout and sequence and system information. on the evaluation front, the reported evaluation only considers wnv, botulism, and foot-and-mouth disease and emphasizes frequency-and pattern-related analysis tasks. to better mimic real-world challenges in public health, additional and preferably more diverse analysis scenarios and tasks must be considered in future evaluation studies. while our subject choice is appropriate for the intended evaluation purpose and hypothesis testing, future investigations should also involve public health researchers and practitioners, preferably from different institutions and regions. paul jen-hwa hu received the ph.d. degree in management information systems from the university of arizona, tucson. he is an associate professor and david eccles faculty fellow with the david eccles school of business, university of utah, salt lake city. his current research interests include healthcare information systems and management, technology implementation management, electronic commerce, digital government, human-computer interaction, and knowledge management. he has authored more than 30 papers in information systems and ieee journals. he is currently an associate professor and the director of the intelligent systems and decisions laboratory in the department of management information systems, university of arizona, tucson. he is an affiliated professor with the institute of automation, chinese academy of sciences, beijing, china. his research interests include software agents and multiagent systems, complex systems analysis, recommender systems, digital economic institutions, automated negotiation and auction, spatio-temporal data analysis, security informatics, and infectious disease informatics. dr. zeng is the chair of the informs college on artificial intelligence and the vice president for technical activities of the ieee intelligent transportation systems society. hsinchun chen received the bachelor's degree in management science from the national chiao-tung university, taiwan, r.o.c., the m.b.a. degree from the state university of new york, buffalo, and the ph.d. degree in information systems from new york university, new york, ny. he is the mcclelland professor with the department of management information systems, university of arizona, tucson, where he is the founding director of the hoffman e-commerce laboratory as well as the founder and director of the artificial intelligence laboratory. he is the author/coauthor of more than 130 papers published in several journals and conference proceedings. his research interests include intelligence analysis, biomedical informatics, data, text, and web mining, digital library, knowledge management, and web computing. catherine larson received the bachelor's degree in liberal arts (spanish and anthropology) and the master's degree in library and information science from the university of illinois at urbana-champaign, champaign. she is currently the associate director of the artificial intelligence laboratory, department of management information systems, university of arizona, tucson. wei chang received the bachelor's degree from tsinghua university, beijing, china, and the master's degree from the university of arizona, tucson, both in management information systems. he is currently working toward the ph.d. degree in operation research and decision science at the university of pittsburgh, pittsburgh, pa. chunju tseng received the b.s. degree from national taiwan university, taiwan, r.o.c., and the m.s. degree in management information systems from the university of arizona, tucson. he is an assistant research scientist with the department of management information systems, university of arizona. his research interests include web mining, infectious disease surveillance, and humancomputer interaction. he has authored several papers published in conference proceedings. james ma received the b.sc. degree from peking university, beijing, china, and the master's degree in computer science from the university of texas, dallas. he is currently working toward the ph.d. degree in management information systems at the university of arizona, tucson. factors in the mergence of infectious diseases predicting super spreading events during the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemics in hong kong and singapore the public health infrastructure and our 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impact the measurement of user information satisfaction the usability of everyday technology: emerging and fading opportunities the influence of climate on the epidemiology of bartonellosis in ancash designing the user interface: strategies for effective human-computer interaction perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and user acceptance of information technology the technology acceptance model: past, present, and future determinants of perceived ease of use: integrating control, intrinsic motivation, and emotion into the technology acceptance model evaluating an infectious disease information sharing and analysis system validating instruments in mis research applied multiple regression/correlation analysis for the behavioral sciences key: cord-027101-6wq1wqh3 authors: paszyński, maciej; siwik, leszek; podsiadło, krzysztof; minev, peter title: a massively parallel algorithm for the three-dimensional navier-stokes-boussinesq simulations of the atmospheric phenomena date: 2020-05-26 journal: computational science iccs 2020 doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-50371-0_8 sha: doc_id: 27101 cord_uid: 6wq1wqh3 we present a massively parallel solver using the direction splitting technique and stabilized time-integration schemes for the solution of the three-dimensional non-stationary navier-stokes-boussinesq equations. the model can be used for modeling atmospheric phenomena. the time integration scheme utilized enables for efficient direction splitting algorithm with finite difference solver. we show how to incorporate the terrain geometry into the simulation and how to perform the domain decomposition. the computational cost is linear [formula: see text] over each sub-domain, and near to [formula: see text] in parallel over 1024 processors, where n is the number of unknowns and c is the number of cores. this is even if we run the parallel simulator over complex terrain geometry. we analyze the parallel scalability experimentally up to 1024 processors over a prometheus linux cluster with multi-core processors. the weak scalability of the code shows that increasing the number of sub-domains and processors from 4 to 1024, where each processor processes the subdomain of [formula: see text] internal points ([formula: see text] box), results in the increase of the total computational time from 120 s to 178 s for a single time step. thus, we can perform a single time step with over 1,128,000,000 unknowns within 3 min. the number of unknowns results from the fact that we have three components of the velocity vector field, one component of the pressure, and one component of the temperature scalar field over 256,000,000 mesh points. the computation of the one time step takes 3 min on a linux cluster. the direction splitting solver is not an iterative solver; it solves the system accurately since it is equivalent to gaussian elimination. our code is interfaced with the mesh generator reading the nasa database and providing the earth terrain map. the goal of the project is to provide a reliable tool for parallel, fully three-dimensional computations of the atmospheric phenomena. air pollution is receiving a lot of interest nowadays. it is visible, especially in the kraków area in poland (compare fig. 1 ), as this is one of the most polluted cities in europe [1] . people living there are more and more aware of the problem, which causes the raising of various movements that are trying to improve air quality. air pollution grows because of multiple factors, including traffic, climate, heating in the winter, the city's architecture, etc. the ability to model atmospheric phenomena such as thermal inversion over the complicated terrain is crucial for reliable simulations of air pollution. thermal inversion occurs when a layer of warm air stays over a layer of cool air, and the warm air holds down the cool air and it prevents pollutants from rising and scattering. we present a massively parallel solver using the direction splitting technique and stabilized time-integration schemes for the solution of the three-dimensional non-stationary navier-stokes-boussinesq equations. the navier-stokes-boussinesq system is widely applied for modeling the atmospheric phenomena [2] , oceanic flows [3] as well as the geodynamics simulations [4] . the model can be used for modeling atmospheric phenomena, in particular, these resulting in a thermal inversion. it can be used as well for modeling several other important atmospheric phenomena [5, 6] . it may even be possible to run the climate simulation of the entire earth atmosphere using the approach presented here. the time integration scheme utilized results in a kronecker product structure of the matrices, and it enables for efficient direction splitting algorithm with finite difference solver [7] , since the matrix is a kronecker product of three three-diagonal matrices, resulting from discretizations along x, y, and z axes. the direction splitting solver is not an iterative solver; it is equivalent to the gaussian elimination algorithm. we show how to extend the alternating directions solver into non-regular geometries, including the terrain data, still preserving the linear computational cost of the solver. we follow the idea originally used in [8] for sequential computations of particle flow. in this paper, we focus on parallel computations, and we describe how to compute the schur complements in parallel with linear cost, and how to aggregate them further and still have a tri-diagonal matrix that can be factorized with a linear computational cost using the thomas algorithm. we also show how to modify the algorithm to work over the complicated non-regular terrain structure and still preserve the linear computational cost. thus, if well parallelized, the parallel factorization cost is near to o(n/c) in every time step, where n is the number of unknowns and c is the number of cores. we analyze the parallel scalability of the code up to 1024 multi-core processors over a prometheus linux cluster [9] from the cyfronet supercomputing center. each subdomain is processed with 50 × 50 × 100 finite difference mesh. our code is interfaced with the mesh generator [10] reading the nasa database [11] and providing the earth terrain map. the goal of the project is to provide a reliable tool for parallel fully three-dimensional computations of the atmospheric phenomena resulting in the thermal inversion and the pollution propagation. in this paper, we focus on the description and scalability of the parallel solver algorithm, leaving the model formulation and large massive parallel simulations of different atmospheric phenomena for future work. this is a challenging task itself, requiring to acquire reliable data for the initial state, forcing, and boundary conditions. the equations in the strong form are where u is the velocity vector field, p is the pressure, p r = 0.7 is the prandt number, g = (0, 0, −1) is the gravity force, ra = 1000.0 is the rayleigh number, t is the temperature scalar field. we discretize using finite difference method in space and the time integration scheme resulting in a kronecker product structure of the matrices. we use the second-order in time unconditionally stable time integration scheme for the temperature equation and for the navier-stokes equation, with the predictor-corrector scheme for pressure. for example we can use the douglass-gunn scheme [13] , performing an uniform partition of the time inter-valī = [0, t ] as and denoting τ := t n+1 − t n , ∀n = 0, . . . , n − 1. in the douglas-gunn scheme, we integrate the solution from time step t n to t n+1 in three substeps as follows: for the navier-stokes equations, l 1 = ∂ xx , l 2 = ∂ yy , and l 3 = ∂ zz , and the forcing term represents gprrat n+1/2 plus the convective flow and the pressure terms u n+1/2 · ∇u n+1/2 + ∇p n+1/2 treated explicitly as well. the pressure is computed with the predictor/corrector scheme. namely, the predictor step with p − 1 2 = p 0 and φ − 1 2 = 0 computes the pressure to be used in the velocity computations, the penalty steps and the corrector step updates the pressure field based on the velocity results and the penalty step these steps are carefully designed to stabilize the equations as well as to ensure the kronecker product structure of matrix, resulting in the linear computational cost solver. the mathematical proofs of the stability of the formulations, motivating such the predictor/corrector (penalty) steps, can be found in [7, 12] and the references there. for the temperature equation, l 1 = ∂ xx , l 2 = ∂ yy , and l 3 = ∂ zz , and the forcing term represents the advection term treated explicitly u n+1/2 · ∇t n+1/2 . for mathematical details on the problem formulation and its mathematical properties, we refer to [12] . each equation in our scheme contains only derivatives in one direction, so they are of the following form or the update of the pressure scalar field. thus, when employing the finite difference method, we either endup with the kronecker product matrices with submatrices being three-diagonal, or the point-wise updates of the pressure field where α = τ /2 or α = 1, depending on the equation, which is equivalent to these systems have a kronecker product structure m = a x ⊗ b y ⊗ c z where the sub-matrices are aligned along the three axis of the system of coordinates, one of these sub-matrices is three-diagonal, and the other two sub-matrices are scalled identity matrices. from the parallel matrix computations point of view, discussed in our paper, it is important that in every time step, we have to factorize in parallel the system of linear equations having the kronecker product structure. the direction splitting algorithm for the kronecker product matrices implements three steps, which result is equivalent to the gaussian elimination algorithm [14] , each of the three systems is three-diagonal, ⎡ and we can solve it in a linear o(n ) computational cost. first, we solve along x direction, second, we solve along y direction, and third, we solve along z direction. to obtain a reliable three-dimensional simulator of the atmospheric phenomena, we interconnect several components. we interface our code with mesh generator that provides an excellent approximation to the topography of the area [10], based on the nasa database [11] . the resulting mesh generated for the krakow area is presented in fig. 2 . in our system of linear equations, we have several tri-diagonal systems with multiple right-hand-sides, factorized along x, y and z directions. each unknown in the system represents one point of the computational mesh. in the first system, the rows are ordered according to the coordinates of points, sorted along x axis. in the second system, the rows are ordered according to the y coordinates of points, and in the third system, according to z coordinates. when simulating the atmospheric phenomena like the thermal inversion over the prescribed terrain with alternating directions solver and finite difference method, we check if a given point is located in the computational domain. the unknowns representing points that are located inside the terrain (outside the atmospheric domain) are removed from the system of equations. this is done by identifying the indexes of the points along x, y, and z axes, in the three systems of coordinates. then, we modify the systems of equations, so the corresponding three rows in the three systems of equations are reset to 0, the diagonal is set to 1, and the corresponding rows and columns of the three right-hand-sides are set 0. for example, if we want to remove point (r, s, t) from the system, we perform the following modification in the first system. the rows in the first system they follow the numbering of points along x axis. the number of columns corresponds to the number of lines along x axis perpendicular to oy z plane. each column of the right-hand side correspond to yz coordinates of a point over oy z plane. we select the column corresponding to the "st" point. we factorize the system with this column separately, by replacing the row in the matrix by the identity on the diagonal and zero on the right-hand side. the other columns in the first system are factorized in a standard way. ⎡ analogous situation applies for the second system, this time with right-hand side columns representing lines perpendicular to oxz plane. we factorize the "rt" column in the second system separately, by setting the row in the matrix as the identity on the diagonal, and using 0.0 on the right-hand side. the other columns in the second system are factorized in the standard way. similarly, in the third system we factorize the "rs" column separately. the other columns in the third system are factorized in a standard way. ⎡ using this trick for all the points in the terrain, we can factorize the kronecker product system in a linear computational cost over the complex terrain geometry. the computational domain is decomposed into several cube-shape sub-domains. we generate systems of linear equations over each sub-domain separately, and we enumerate the variables in a way that interface unknowns are located at the end of the matrices. we compute the schur complement of the interior variables with respect to the interface variables. we do it in parallel over each of the subdomains. the important observation is that the schur complement matrices will also be three-diagonal matrices. this is because the subdomain matrix is three-diagonal, and the schur complement computation can be implemented as forward eliminations, performed in the three sub-systems, each of them stopped after processing the interior nodes in the particular systems. later, we aggregate the schur complements into one global matrix. we do it by global gather operation. this matrix is also tri-diagonal and can be factorized in a linear cost. later, we scatter the solution, and we use the partial solutions from the global matrix to backward substitute each of the systems in parallel. these operations are illustrated in fig. 3 . we perform this operation three times, for three submatrices of the kronecker product matrix, defined along three axes of the coordinate system. we provide algebraic details below. thus, assuming we have r−1 rows to factorize in the first system (r−1 rows in the interior, and k − r + 1 rows on the interface), we run the forward elimination over the first matrix, along the x direction, and we stop it before processing the r-th row (denoted by red color). this partial forward elimination stopped at the r-th row ensures that below that row we have the schur complement of the first r − 1 rows related with the interior points in the domain with respect to the next k − r + 1 rows related with the interface points (the schur complement is denoted by blue color). this schur complement matrix is indeed tri-diagonal: we perform this operation on every sub-domain, and then we gather on processor one the tri-diagonal schur complements, we aggregate them into one matrix along x direction. the matrix is still a tri-diagonal matrix, and we solve the matrix using linear o(n ) computational cost gaussian elimination procedure with the thomas algorithm. next, we scatter and substitute the partial solutions to sub-system over subdomains. we do it by replacing the last r − k + 1 rows by the identity matrix and placing the solutions into the right-hand side blocks. namely, on the right-hand side we replace rows from r + 1 (denoted by blue color) by the solution obtained in the global phase, to obtain: ⎡ 0 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 0ã x 22ã x 23 0 · · · · · · · · · · · · . . . . . . 0 · · · · · · · · · · · · 0 1 0 0 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 0 1 and running backward substitutions over each subdomain in parallel. next, we plug the solutions to the right-hand side of the second system along y axis, and we continue with the partial factorization. now, we have s − 1 rows in the interior and l − s + 1 rows on the interface. we compute the schur complements in the same way as for the fist subsystem, thus we skip the algebraic details here. we perform this operation on every sub-domain, then we collect on processor one and aggregate the schur complements into the global matrix along y directions. the global matrix is three-diagonal, and we solve it with thomas algorithm. next, we scatter and substitute the partial solutions to sub-system on each subdomain, and we solve by backward substitutions. finally, we plug the solution to the right-hand side of the third system along z axis, and we continue with the partial factorization. now, we have t − 1 rows in the interior and m − t + 1 rows on the interface. the partial eliminations follow the same lines as for the two other directions, thus, we skip the algebraic details. we repeat the computations for this third direction, computing the schur complements on every sub-domain, collecting them into one global system, which is still three-diagonal, and we can solve it using the linear computational cost thomas algorithm. next, we substitute the partial solution to sub-systems. we replace the last t − m + 1 rows by the identity matrix, and place the solutions into the right-hand side, and run the backward substitutions over each subdomain in parallel. the solver is implemented in fortran95 with openmp (see algorithm 1) and mpi libraries used for parallelization. it does not use any other libraries, and it is a highly optimized code. we report in fig. 4 and table 1 the weak scalability for three different subdomain sizes, 50 × 50 × 100, 25 × 100 × 100, and 50 × 50 × 50. the weak scalability for the subdomains of 49 × 49 × 99 internal points, shows that increasing the number of processors from 4 to 1024, simultaneously increasing the number of subdomains from 4 to 1024, and the problem size from 50 × 50 × 400 to 800 × 800 × 400, results in the increase of the total computational time from 120 s to 178 s for a single time step. thus, we can perform a single time step with over 1,128,000,000 unknowns (three components loop end =nrhs/10; i=1; inverse =1.0/(mat%b(n)-cp(n-1)*mat%a(n)); dmult =mat%a(n) do j = 1,loop end if(i