Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research Vol. 8, No. 4, 2018, 3234-3237 3234 www.etasr.com Laghari et al.: Effects of Climate Change on Mountain Waters: A Case Study of European Alps Effects of Climate Change on Mountain Waters: A Case Study of European Alps Abdul Nasir Laghari Department of Energy and Environment Engineering, Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science and Technology, Nawabshah, Pakistan a.n.laghari@quest.edu.pk Gordhan Das Walasai Department of Mechanical Engineering, Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science and Technology, Nawabshah, Pakistan valasai@quest.edu.pk Abdul Rehman Jatoi Department of Energy and Environment Engineering, Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science and Technology, Nawabshah, Pakistan jatoi.ar@gmail.com Daddan Khan Bangwar Department of Civil Engineering, Quaid -e- Awam University of Engineering, Science and Technology, Nawabshah, Pakistan skb_khan2000@yahoo.com Abdul Hannan Shaikh Department of Mathematics. Quaid e Awam University of Engineering, Science, and Technology, Nawabshah, Pakistan hanangul12@yahoo.co.uk Abstract—The Alps play a vital role in the water supply of the region through the rivers Danube, Rhine, Po and Rhone while they are crucial to the ecosystem. Over the past two centuries, we witnessed the temperature to increase by +2 degrees, which is approximately three times higher than the global average. Under this study, the Alps are analyzed using regional climatic models for possible projections in order to understand the climatic changes impact on the water cycle, particularly on runoff. The scenario is based on assumptions of future greenhouse gases emissions. The regional model results show the consistent warming trend in the last 30-year span: temperature in winter may increase by 3 to 4.5°C and summers by 4 to 5.5°C. The precipitation regime may also be altered: increasing about 10- 50% in winter and decreasing about 30-60% in summer. The changes in the amount of precipitation are not uninformed. Differences are observed particularly between the North West and South East part of the Alps. Due to the projected changes in alpine rainfall and temperature patterns, the seasonality of alpine flow regime will also be altered: massive rise will occur in winter and a significant reduction in summer. The typical low flow period during winter will also be shifted to late summer and autumn. Keywords-climate change; European Alps; flow regime; impact assessment I. INTRODUCTION The Alps, spanning over the central part of Europe, play a key role in the water supply of the region. The chain of this mountain region known as the “water towers” of Europe are a mother to number of rivers, i.e., Danube, Rhine, Po, and Rhone. These rivers provide key services to the ecosystem both at upstream and the downstream regions. Worryingly, mountain regions and the Alps in particular are highly exposed to the climate change. The region has witnessed a remarkably rise in temperature of approximately +2°C during the last two hundred years against the global mean surface temperature increase of 0.74°C [1]. The Alps are highly sensitive to climate change, even a slight variation in climatic parameters can significantly change the hydrological cycle. Seasonal snow and ice factor have strong altitude sensitivity concerning temperature conditions, so the variation in temperature could result in sharp changes both to the Alpine climate and hydrology [2]. The increased temperature rate has severely affected the alpine hydro-climate system, i.e., extensive glacier retreat, decline in snow cover duration, rise of snowline, variations in seasonal runoff regime etc. [3]. Authors in [4-6] analyzed the precipitation in the region and reported a rise in rainfall in winter season by 20-30% and a reduction in autumn by 20-40%. The buildup of snow at higher elevations may form glaciers, and during summer, when precipitation and runoff are low, their melting provides water to low-lying areas. The rivers Rhine, Rhone, and Inn, show stable and higher mean specific discharges of 28-33l/s per km2 in comparison with Po, Adige and Mur which show lower and variable mean specific discharges of 17-24l/s per km2. However, due to the three times higher impact of global warming, any further temperature change shall result in change in the Alps hydrological cycle. The two-third of this water volume were lost by 2000 and 10% of the volume was lost just in the hot summer of 2003 [7]. If this trend continues, the large glaciers will lose about 30-70% of their remaining volume by 2050 [8, 9]. It is projected that the changes in the hydro-climate system will be further intensified in the coming decades, resulting into increased number of summer droughts, winter floods and higher inter-mean annual variation in river runoff regimes [10- 12]. Anticipated shortfall of water along with continual intense events and with the growth in water demand will have negative impact on the ecosystem. Agriculture, energy use, forestry, winter-tourism, and river transportation are highly susceptible to water shortage. These changes in temperature have left dra cyc am in inc the dec tem cyc on SR evo can on em dev are em fut sce pat cen 20 Th Me Sw Slo ext mo Ita sto reg ori bas im los wa is hig mo the wh pro ave Da bas flo mo 34 dis res bet the flo Engineerin www.etasr astic impacts o cle of Alps. 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In this to socio-econ -tech change, w evelopment o prediction o mption of em rature, precipi ine region. PTION geographic fa mately 800km ine peaks is 2 sin from the h France to Austria, and e n Italy in Sout y in North [23] witzerland, Au huge natural vers throughou , whose headw hows the major possesses param ces. educed evapo n reason for su t of the precipi mulation of sn ent feature of a y about 2900k ng summer se , the glacier reas [26]. The of the total flo ain part of D ovides 25% of uence. Similarl Po basin accou charge, imply 1.5 for each e Alpine part omes in summ below 40% of er months. h V Effects of Clima ogical ainfall retreat 7], and ncy of oming ow the water terms fferent ies of which mpacts study nomic which of this of the mission itation acet of and is 2.5km. north owards east to th and ]. The ustria, water ut the waters r river mount oration urplus itation now at alpine km2 of eason, melt Alp’s ow for anube f total ly, the unt for ying a basin varies mer. 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S 6], which high different seaso hancing flood mmer and ea asons (except ng, Technology r.com w depletion ma on in the winte decrease arou ncrease [32] ave a very ne uggest that at r cover will b ll glaciers wi will face a r melt will ini ers, but later o mmer flows ar ighly glacieriz ummer season ced summer m glacier mel [34-36], and ions at downst creased precip melt may also inter season. e hydrologica seasonal change nt till the last 30-y ers are developed p://prudence.dmi.d hows the imp gime of the Al fs), simulated under IPCC e winter not only id to liquid) (instead of sp will undoubt alpine river s ranges from 7 e in summer. ds in seasonali Similar conclu hlights the sub ons throughou ding in late win arly autumn. in winter) m y & Applied Sci La ay reach 33% er season. The und 150m w ]. The pr egative impact a rise in temp be reduced mo ill be disappe 30-70% volu itially enhance on, when the re projected t zed basins ma n [32]. 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The variati ncrease in win me analysis con ivers, e.g. the so drawn earl in water availa th a potential r nced drought i asing trends e different de h V Effects of Clima age of w line ree of reased cover. out 4- . This 0 and n. The flows me will d [33]. o 50% m, the little educed reased hand, h early ooding spatial een in n mean LM A2 rudence er the ges in limate e high itation wmelt at the t over on in nter to nfirms Rhine lier in ability risk of in late in all emand stak crea Fig. runo scen web exp and tren hig futu win sno is p van red flow a si [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] Vol. 8, No. 4, 20 ate Change on M keholders with ated in adjacen 4. Relative s off till the last 3 nario. Rasters are bsite, http://pruden The Alps are periencing high d global avera nd of changes her increase uristic precipi nter and fall in ow-cover span projected to nished, and th duction by the w regime will ignificant fall i IPCC, The Four Climate Change A. Laghari, D. V result in a shift Hydrological Sc I. 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