CHAPTER XXV - WHAT FORTUNE CAN EFFECT IN HUMAN AFFAIRS, AND HOW TO WITHSTAND HER

IT is not unknown to me how many men have had, and still have, the
opinion that the affairs of the world are in such wise governed by
fortune and by God that men with their wisdom cannot direct them and
that no one can even help them; and because of this they would have us
believe that it is not necessary to labour much in affairs, but to let
chance govern them. This opinion has been more credited in our times
because of the great changes in affairs which have been seen, and
may still be seen, every day, beyond all human conjecture. Sometimes
pondering over this, I am in some degree inclined to their opinion.
Nevertheless, not to extinguish our free will, I hold it to be true
that Fortune is the arbiter of one-half of our actions, but that she
still leaves us to direct the other half, or perhaps a little less.

I compare her to one of those raging rivers, which when in flood
overflows the plains, sweeping away trees and buildings, bearing
away the soil from place to place; everything flies before it, all
yield to its violence, without being able in any way to withstand
it; and yet, though its nature be such, it does not follow therefore
that men, when the weather becomes fair, shall not make provision,
both with defences and barriers, in such a manner that, rising
again, the waters may pass away by canal, and their force be neither
so unrestrained nor so dangerous. So it happens with fortune, who
shows her power where valour has not prepared to resist her, and
thither she turns her forces where she knows that barriers and
defences have not been raised to constrain her.

And if you will consider Italy, which is the seat of these
changes, and which has given to them their impulse, you will see it to
be an open country without barriers and without any defence. For if it
had been defended by proper valour, as are Germany, Spain, and France,
either this invasion would not have made the great changes it has made
or it would not have come at all. And this I consider enough to say
concerning resistance to fortune in general.

But confining myself more to the particular, I say that a prince may
be seen happy to-day and ruined to-morrow without having shown any
change of disposition or character. This, I believe, arises firstly
from causes that have already been discussed at length, namely, that
the prince who relies entirely upon fortune is lost when it changes. I
believe also that he will be successful who directs his actions
according to the spirit of the times, and that he whose actions do not
accord with the times will not be successful. Because men are seen, in
affairs that lead to the end which every man has before him, namely,
glory and riches, to get there by various methods; one with caution,
another with haste; one by force, another by skill; one by patience,
another by its opposite; and each one succeeds in reaching the goal by
a different method. One can also see of two cautious men the one
attain his end, the other fail; and similarly, two men by different
observances are equally successful, the one being cautious, the
other impetuous; all this arises from nothing else than whether or not
they conform in their methods to the spirit of the times. This follows
from what I have said, that two men working differently bring about
the same effect, and of two working similarly, one attains his
object and the other does not.

Changes in estate also issue from this, for if, to one who governs
himself with caution and patience, times and affairs converge in
such a way that his administration is successful, his fortune is made;
but if times and affairs change, he is ruined if he does not change
his course of action. But a man is not often found sufficiently
circumspect to know how to accommodate himself to the change, both
because he cannot deviate from what nature inclines him to, and also
because, having always prospered by acting in one way, he cannot be
persuaded that it is well to leave it; and, therefore, the cautious
man, when it is time to turn adventurous, does not know how to do
it, hence he is ruined; but had he changed his conduct with the
times fortune would not have changed.

Pope Julius II went to work impetuously in all his affairs, and
found the times and circumstances conform so well to that line of
action that he always met with success. Consider his first
enterprise against Bologna, Messer Giovanni Bentivogli being still
alive. The Venetians were not agreeable to it, nor was the King of
Spain, and he had the enterprise still under discussion with the
King of France; nevertheless he personally entered upon the expedition
with his accustomed boldness and energy, a move which made Spain and
the Venetians stand irresolute and passive, the latter from fear,
the former from desire to recover all the kingdom of Naples; on the
other hand, he drew after him the King of France, because that king,
having observed the movement, and desiring to make the Pope his friend
so as to humble the Venetians, found it impossible to refuse him
soldiers without manifestly offending him. Therefore Julius with his
impetuous action accomplished what no other pontiff with simple
human wisdom could have done; for if he had waited in Rome until he
could get away, with his plans arranged and everything fixed, as any
other pontiff would have done, he would never have succeeded.
Because the King of France would have made a thousand excuses, and the
others would have raised a thousand fears.

I will leave his other actions alone, as they were all alike, and
they all succeeded, for the shortness of his life did not let him
experience the contrary; but if circumstances had arisen which
required him to go cautiously, his ruin would have followed, because
he would never have deviated from those ways to which nature
inclined him.

I conclude therefore that, fortune being changeful and mankind
steadfast in their ways, so long as the two are in agreement men are
successful, but unsuccessful when they fall out. For my part I
consider that it is better to be adventurous than cautious, because
fortune is a woman, and if you wish to keep her under it is
necessary to beat and ill-use her; and it is seen that she allows
herself to be mastered by the adventurous rather than by those who
go to work more coldly. She is, therefore, always, woman-like, a lover
of young men, because they are less cautious, more violent, and with
more audacity command her.

